GOLD CLOSED CLOSED UP $111.10 TO $4329.90
SILVER CLOSED UP $3,28 TO $70.14
ACCESS MARKET
GOLD $4317.00 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 70.08 3;30 PM)
Bitcoin morning price:$65,734 UP 2104 DOLLARS (MANY SWITCHING TO PHYSICAL GOLD)
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $66.607 UP 2976 DOLLARS
Platinum price closing UP $75.95 TO $1773,99
Palladium price; UP $59.50 TO $1348.50
JUNE 15
JUNE COMEX MONTH
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JUNE 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,215.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/12/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 06/16/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 240
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 82
167 C MAREX 3
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 172
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 614
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 10
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 9
709 C BARCLAYS 282
TOTAL: 706 706
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2026: 706 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 70,600 OZ or2.1959 TONNES
total notices so far: 33,930 contracts FOR 3,393,000 OZ OR 105.536 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR nil OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 2181 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 10.905 million oz
SILVER//OUTLINE
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF XX CONTRACTS OR XXX OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER 3 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP TO LONDON FOR 0.015 MILLION OZ// AND THEN TO BOOT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 51 CONTRACTS OR 255,000 OZ MAY 21./STANDING BEFORE EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 32.070 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING THUS REDUCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ/.//(32.070 MILLION OZ NORMAL STANDING PLUS .255 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 32.325 MILLION OZ)
JUNE INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER:10.935 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0 OZ//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 12.015 MILLION OZ//
SUMMARY OF OUR JUNE 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH:
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
MAY 59.79 MILLION OZ
JUNE. 34.055 MILION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP OF 15,000 OZ//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 32.070 MILLION OZ//(FOLLOWING MANY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON DURING THIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH). THERE SEEMS TO BE A SCARCITY OF SILVER OVER AT THE COMEX). THEN WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 51 CONTRACTS FOR 255,000 OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND: 10.935 MILLION OZ PLUS OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0 OZ//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT: 12.015 MILLION OZ
GOLD//OUTLINE
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 345 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 34,500 OZ/ (1.073 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 345 CONTRACTS OR 34500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 24.635 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES OF GOLD.
JUNE; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 64.496 TONNES.(CME CORRECTED) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 2.1959 TONNES OF A QUEUE JUMP/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 104.040 TONNES
STANDING FOR THE LAST 5 MONTHS JANUARY TO MAY:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 345 CONTRACTS/34,500 OZ// 1.073 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MAY// 5 OCCASIONS: 24.635 TONNES///NEW STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 2/1959 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 106.236 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 118.430 TONNES
JUNE: 75.461 TONNES
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SOIS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL 265 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 107,475.
EFP ISSUANCE 530 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 530 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 265 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 530 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OF 795 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $3.34
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 3.975 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE.OF $3.34
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS JUNE 15 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 64.96 PTS OR 1.61%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 110.40 PTS OR 0.45%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 3,516.96 PTS OR 5.33%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.66%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7574
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7576 Oil DOWN TO 80.32 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 82.97 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7574) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7576 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR 2153 CONTRACTS TO 339.126 RISING FROM ITS NEW ALL TIME LOW OF 337,208 OI SET JUNE 3, SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 345,705 SET (MAY 28) AND SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 353,490 SET MAY 27.. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 326,052 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,450.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING FRIDAY’S TRADING JUNE 12!!. IT SEEMS THAT SOME OF THE SPECULATORS CONTINUED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY ON THE SHORT SIDE BUT WITH THE BANKERS NOW TAKING THE LONG SIDE,AND CENTRAL BANKS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER, AS WELL AS COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL.
CENTRAL BANKS ALSO TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS JUNE CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE SMALL SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD (UP $123.30) AS THE SPECS BAILED.
WE THUS HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 960 CONTRACTS (OR 2.938 TONNES) DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A FAIR CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, EQUATING TO 1193 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A 0 CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD. ON FRIDAY, BY FAR WE HAD THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK EVER ISSUED AT ONE TIME BEATING THE PREVIOUS SINGLE HIGHEST ISSUE BY ONE TONNE. THUS MAY 22 RECORDS THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 12.4416 TONNES. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THE THIRD ON MAY 18 , THEN MAY 21 OUR 4TH ISSUANCE AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY, OUR 5TH ISSUANCE. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH MAY
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS OR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES.
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO MAY:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 146+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS, 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
JUNE: ZERO SO FAR
DETAILS ON OUR NEW JUNE COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A SMALL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 121 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE ($123.30). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE THROUGH JUNE/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A FAIR SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1213 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND NOW MAY WITH ITS 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 12.4436 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 24.635 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12, MAY 18 MAY 21 AND NOW MAY 22..
JUNE: ZERO SO FAR.
WE MUST ALSO REMEMBER THAT THE FRBNY IS SHORT 146+ TONNES OF GOLD, THIS COMMENCED ON JAN 2 2023 AS THEY REFUSE TO COVER DESPITE THE BIS’S PLEA TO DO SO. WE WILL KNOW IN JUNE WHETHER THEY COVERED ANY OF THEIR SHORTFALL.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 34,500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNESS
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 2.1959 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 106.236 TONNES//
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING JUNE,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $123.30)
WE HAD NO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION FRIDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE , OUR LONG SPECULATORS STILL REMAIN RELENTLESS POURING INTO THE COMEX
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
FRIDAY NIGHT//SATURDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY EVENING SATURDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $123.30
WE HAD 839 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 960 CONTRACTS OR 96,000 OZ (2.936 TONNES)
MAY DELIVERY MONTH
JUNE 15
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1 ENTRIES i) HSBC: 64,302.000 oz (2000 kilobars) |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold ENTRIES: 0 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 706 CONTRACTS OR 70600 OZ 2.1959 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 225 Contracts 22500 OZ 0.6998 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 33,930 notices 3,393,000 oz 105.536 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
0 ENTRY
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
ENTRIES: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawal
1 ENTRIES
1 ENTRIES
i) HSBC: 64,302.000 oz
(2000 kilobars)
adjustments: 0//
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE OI STANDS AT 931 CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 2855 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 3561 CONTRACTS SERVED ON FRIDAY, SO WE GAINED A STRONG 706 CONTRACTS OR 70,600 OZ. (2.1959 TONNES) EXERCISED A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TAKE PHYSICAL GOLD ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THIS IS NO DOUBT CENTRAL BANKS STANDING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD.
JULY LOST 96 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 3351 CONTRACTS.
AUGUST GAINED 452 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 264,750
.
We had 706 contracts filed for today representing 70,600oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 706 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 10 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JUNE. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (33,930) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE(931 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 706 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,415,500 OZ OR (106.236Tonnes of gold)
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JUNE. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (33,930) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE( 931 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 706 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,415,500 OZ OR (106.236Tonnes of gold)
new total of gold standing in JUNE becomes 106.236 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE 106.236 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW REALLY HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.
confirmed volume FRIDAY confirmed 150,828// poor// many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,901,685.438 oz 59.15 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,901,685.438 tonnes oz 59.15 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 27,949,480.467oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 15,422,468.129 tonnes (479.70 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 12,591,320.338oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,520.783oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
420.553 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
JUNE DELIVERY MONTH
JUNE 15
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 0 entries |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 entries |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT ONE ENTRY i)Into CNT 599,451.400 oz total deposit 599,451.400 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 0 CONTRACT(S) (0,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 222 Contract (1.110 MILLIONoz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 2181 contracts 10.905 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 entries
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
ENTRY:1
ONE ENTRY
i)Into CNT 599,451.400 oz
total deposit 599,451.400 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
0 entries
adjustments
0 entry
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 85.189 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 319.956 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JUNE
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JUNE /2026 OI: 222 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 14 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD 14 NOTICES SERVED ON FRIDAY SO WE NIETHER GAINED NOR LOST ANY CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 0 OZ WILL STAND AS A QUEUE JUMP AT THE SILVER COMEX.
JULY SAW A LOSS OF 1698 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 49,007 CONTRACTS.
AUGUST SAW A GAIN 0F 75 CONTRACTS UP TO 853…
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 or NIL oz
CONFIRMED volume FRIDAY; 60.806// fair
XXX
AND NOW JUNE. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2181 X5,000 oz = 10.905 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE(222) AND the number of notices served upon today (0 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the JUNE 2026 contract month: (2181 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JUNE ( 222) minus number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JUNE..contract month equating to 12.015 MILLION OZ.+
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 85.189 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 139.679/319.956 million: 43.45%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
JUNE 15 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $111.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 12 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $123.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 11 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.855 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 10 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $153.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.426 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.495 TONNES
JUNE 9 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $75.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.921 TONNES
JUNE 8 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.936 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.921 TONNES
JUNE 5 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $134;85 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.857 TONNES
JUNE 4 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $39.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.143 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.857 TONNES
JUNE 3 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $51.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.856 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.000 TONNES
JUNE 2 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $7.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.712 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.856 TONNES
JUNE 1 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $79.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.568 TONNES
MAY 29 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $59.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.568 TONNES
MAY 28 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $52.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.853 TONNES
MAY 27 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $51.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.853 TONNES
MAY 26 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $25.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.9988 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.853 TONNES
MAY 22 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.851 TONNES
MAY 21 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.851 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1013/64 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
JUNE 15 WITH SILVER UP $3.25: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.357 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.026 MILLION OZ
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $3.34: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.769 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.383 MILLION OZ
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.226 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.152 MILLION OZ
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.50: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.909 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.378 MILLION OZ
JUNE 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.35: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.407 MILLION OZ INTO INTO THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.287 MILLION OZ
JUNE 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 543,000 OZ FROM THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.880 MILLION OZ
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.86: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.423 MILLION OZ
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER UP $0.52: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV >> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.432 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.423 MILLION OZ
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.55: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV >> /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.423 MILLION OZ
JUNE 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.25: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV >> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.2222 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.855 MILLION OZ
JUNE 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF 1.9 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.077 MILLION OZ
MAY 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.977 MILLION OZ
MAY 28 WITH SILVER UP $1.02: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.977 MILLION OZ
MAY 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.61: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.977 MILLION OZ
MAY 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.14: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.131 OF 0.315 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.153 MILLION OZ
MAY 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.022 MILLION OZ
MAY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.64: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.338 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 482.383MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD.
Trump is telling the world that an agreement will be signed immediately ending the Hormuz crisis. He’s wrong on both. It will only be a Memorandum of Understanding — an MOU.
| Alasdair MacleodJun 14∙Paid |  |
“It is against this background that we must consider the dollar’s future. It is over-owned by foreigners who have a diminishing need for them and are moving their monetary reserves into gold. It is a process likely to accelerate as a result of America’s defeat against Iran, a factor of which markets are not yet sufficiently aware. As a further disincentive to hold dollars, China’s yuan is in the ascendent.”
Introduction
It appears that the Pakistanis have managed to get Iran and America to agree to talk. The start of the process is a Memorandum of Understanding, which only lists the topics to be resolved. Sixty days are to be put aside to resolve these issues. The last of these is the nuclear issue, because that will require American presence or representation on Iranian soil to oversee the de-enrichment of Iran’s uranium. In any event, Iran insists on its right to maintain her domestic enrichment capability under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Iran’s other principal red lines are as follows:
· Israel to withdraw completely from Lebanon and cease its attacks on Hezbollah.
· Iran’s support for regional allies like Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis and others.
· No interference in her ballistic missile program.
· The return of Iranian funds and assets confiscated by the US and her allies.
· The removal of all sanctions on Iran’s energy and other exports.
· Iran to retain control over the Strait of Hormuz and the right to charge fees to shipping.
Clearly, it is America which wants to end the conflict. Iran will almost certainly insist that Hormuz will remain closed until America agrees to accept these red lines in a binding agreement because it is in her power to do so and maintains maximum pressure on the Americans. Therefore, if an MOU is signed, we should expect at the least a period of up to sixty days before traffic is allowed to flow freely through Hormuz which takes us into August. And if the US prevaricates, or Israel continues attacking Lebanon, refuses to withdraw and continues to attack Iran’s regional allies, Hormuz will almost certainly remain closed to general shipping until Iran’s terms are accepted, or the US withdraws its military from the region.
The one thing that western capital markets don’t appear to understand is that
America and Israel have lost this war against Iran and is not in a position to challenge Iran’s red lines. Instead, this ill-conceived war has put America on the back foot because of the mounting threat to her economy and those of the other G7 nations. Iran knows this and it is her strongest negotiating position. The defeat of the US is de facto if not de jure.
Geopolitical implications
First Afghanistan, and now Iran. This defeat for the US leads to the loss of her hegemony in West Asia, creating a power vacuum which the China/Russia/Iran partnership will fill. Israel’s fair-weather friends in the Arab world will turn against her. The American-installed Lebanese government will probably fall and a Hezbollah government return. Zionism will be under the greatest threat in its existence, because America’s failure is Israel’s as well. Netanyahu’s successors — he will be gone — will need to seek protection from the new hegemons, particularly Russia given that 20% of Israelis are of Russian origin.
Partly to concentrate on supporting the Zionists in their Greater Israel project, the US has already reduced her commitment to NATO. The Europeans are struggling to adapt to this new reality with a feeling of defencelessness against Russia. And in East Asia, the dominoes appear to be falling in China’s favour with ethnicity and commercial interests being guiding factors.
America’s importance outside the Americas has diminished significantly, and its failure in the Middle East is part of a trend. The Empire is in decline and retreating into the Monroe doctrine.
It is against this background that we must consider the dollar’s future. It is over-owned by foreigners who have a diminishing need for them and are moving their monetary reserves into gold. It is a process likely to accelerate as a result of America’s defeat against Iran, a factor of which markets are not yet sufficiently aware. As a further disincentive to hold dollars, China’s yuan is in the ascendent, as the chart below illustrates:
These are big-picture issues, which leaves a world awash with dollars to sell them, if not immediately over the next few years as the implications of the US being booted out of the Eurasian continent sink in and the dollar as a store of value loses credibility.
This time scale for the dollar’s demise is being compressed by the consequences of her Middle East debacle. By some measures, this needless oil crisis is worse than that of October 1973 when OPEC announced price hikes of nearly 300% to $11.65 per barrel. The likely outturn for oil prices in the coming months is yet to hit US capital markets. And in the last 53 years the Persian Gulf has become a major global supplier of vital downstream products. The consequences for commodity prices are just beginning to be reflected in supply disruption, which will spread through wholesale prices and into consumer products and services.
So far, official and semi-official forecasts of worst-case inflationary consequences are ridiculously complacent, compared with what happened in the wake of the 1973 OPEC shock. The table below is a vivid illustration of what happened to G7 inflation rates then, compared with the current situation:
For less than one month the gold/dollar exchange rate paused while the implications sank in. Then gold doubled in just three months from $90 to $180:
As the cliché goes, history doesn’t necessarily repeat but it does tend to rhyme. It’s a rhyme that strongly suggests that while sentiment against gold and silver is deeply negative, they are set up for a spectacular move higher in very short order. The sensible strategy for traders is to arbitrage against current sentiment, which assumes that the prospect of higher interest rates is a headwind for gold, and buy into the consequences of far higher bond yields as the outcome of a combination of far higher inflation and a government debt to GDP of 125%.
To summarise
· America’s global empire is ending, calling into question the dollar’s future as a fiat currency.
· The economic consequences of the war against Iran are bound to lead to a rapid expansion of dollar money supply, and of the entire G7 for that matter as they attempt to rescue their economies from a global slump.
· High government debt levels will exacerbate the situation for the dollar and other G7 currencies, triggering debt traps which essentially make soaring government deficits unfundable.
· Along with the US’s global hegemony, her dollar’s undisputed reign as the leader of the fiat currency pack is coming to an end, while China’s yuan star is in the ascendent.
END
3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
5. COMMODITY REPORT//ALUMINIUM/SULFUR
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 64.96 PTS OR 1.61%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 110.40 PTS OR 0.45%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 3,516.96 PTS OR 5.33%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.66%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7574
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7576 Oil DOWN TO 80.32 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 82.97 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7574) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7576 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.7574
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.7587
1.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 110.40 PTS OR 0.45%
2. Nikkei closed UP 3,516.96 PTS OR 5.33%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL DOWN TO 80.32
BRENT; 82.94
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 99.31/// EURO RISES TO 1.1581 UP 6 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +2.576 DOWN 4 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 160.14… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.750 DOWN 4 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP( 6.7574 AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.7576
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and BRENT DOWN this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields LOWER on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.9496// Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.674// SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.3670%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.612%
3j Gold at $4341.00 //Silver at: 70.52 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 21/ 100 roubles/72.71
3m oil (WTI) into the 80 dollar handle for WTI and 82 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 160.14 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.576% DOWN 4 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.750 DOWN 4 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.7935 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9203
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.437 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.941 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.039 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 46.28 UP 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7836 DOWN 6 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.491 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.4020 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.046 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
US Futures, Global Stocks Surge, Oil Tumbles On Iran Deal
Monday, Jun 15, 2026 – 08:20 AM
Global markets soared in a risk-on rally following the announcement of a US-Iran deal Sunday night. Stocks and bonds rallied while oil tumbled to a three-month low after the US and Iran said they have reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt the war. This will provide a 60-day window for negotiation. As of 8:00am ET, Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 2.1%, while those for the S&P 500 rose 1.3%. In the pre-market, Mag 7 are all higher led by NVDA (+2.1%), META (+2.0%) and MSFT (+1.7%). European stocks climbed 0.7% to shatter a pre-war record high while Asian stocks were similarly buoyant. Bond yields are 2-5bp lower led by the belly of the curve and the 10Y trading around 4.4%. The USD is lower. Brent fell to around $83 a barrel and WTI slid below $80 for the first time since the start of the war. Gold and Bitcoin gained strongly, while the dollar lost ground against all major currencies. European bonds outperformed global peers. Metals are higher led by gold (2.8%) and silver (+3.9%). US economic data calendar includes June Empire manufacturing (8:30am), May industrial production (9:15am) and June NAHB housing market index (10am)
In premarket trading, miners, cruise-line operators and airlines gain, while energy stocks fall, on the US-Iran deal. Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Amazon +2.4%, Nvidia +2%, Alphabet +1.8%, Meta +1.5%, Microsoft +1.5%, Tesla +1.5%, Apple +0.7%)
- Hawkeye 360 (HAWK) is up 6.1% after Jefferies raised its recommendation on the defense technology company to buy from hold on revenue upside from defense demand.
- Old Dominion (ODFL) falls 1.1% after Citi analyst Ariel Rosa cut the recommendation to sell from neutral, writing that optimism about the trucking industry seems to be reflected in the valuations of sector players.
- Roku Inc. (ROKU) shares rise 2.5% after Fox Corp. agreed to buy the company for $160 per share in cash and stock. Fox (FOXA) shares fall 13%
- SpaceX (SPCX) jumps 6% after its blockbuster debut Friday vaulted it into the ranks of the world’s most valuable public companies.
In other weekend news, the US government has ordered Anthropic to disable access to its most advanced AI platforms for all foreign nationals after discovering it’s possible to “jailbreak” the Fable 5 AI model.
The agreement between Washington and Tehran signals an end a three-month conflict that has claimed thousands of lives and upended financial markets. A pickup in energy flows would also help unwind the premium embedded in crude prices, offering comfort to policymakers battling inflation.
“Risk appetite is back on, but the issue is to know whether the Strait fully reopens,” said Christopher Dembik, senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management. “Trump doesn’t have a great track record of lasting deals in the Middle East, so there’s a risk of tensions spiking back during the summer.”
Investors are awaiting details of the US-Iran agreement ahead of a formal signing scheduled for Friday in Switzerland. The Strait of Hormuz will reopen after Friday’s signing of the deal, President Donald Trump said on social media. The event would then trigger the start of 60 days of talks on Iran’s nuclear program. Trump told the New York Times that if an agreement isn’t reached on nuclear, he could restart military attacks. For its part, Iran will allow free transit through the waterway for only 60 days, Fars news agency reported, citing a person familiar with the matter.
“It’s not a permanent solution, so a significant risk premium will likely be priced into markets,” said George Moran, European macro strategist at RBC. “But, if oil stays around $80-85, it certainly takes a good amount of pressure off central bankers’ shoulders.”
Investors bet that a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would likely help ease inflation pressures and reinforce expecations for lower interest rates. Swaps traders are pricing about a 75% chance of a quarter-point Federal Reserve interest-rate hike by December, down from about 80% on Friday.
The agreement sees some hedge funds reopening pre-war playbooks, while some market participants caution the economic fallout from the conflict remains unresolved. Reactions in other assets include Bitcoin rallying to its highest level in nearly two weeks, while WTI crude oil slumped around 5%, although considerable challenges remain to relieving a profound global crunch. Hormuz trade will take months to return to normal.
Turning back to the market, the US stock market is poised to see a surge in new equity issuance, with JPMorgan estimating share sales will add roughly $1.5 trillion of stock to the market over the next two years. It could herald a seismic shift, compared to buybacks by S&P 500 companies alone erasing $12 trillion worth of stock over 20 years.
Meanwhile, with everyone flooding back into risk, the cost to fund US equity positions is jumping unexpectedly, due to the combination of the AI-driven stock rally, the massive growth of leveraged ETFs and SpaceX’s $75 billion listing. The financing spreads embedded in S&P 500 Index futures have opened up the biggest gap to Treasury financing rates since late 2024.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 gains are led by autos, industrials and construction stocks, though the benchmark has pared its rise. Here are the biggest movers Monday:
- Banca Generali climbs as much as 9.5% to a new record after Jefferies upgraded the Italian private bank to buy, based on a turn in flows and better visibility
- IQE shares rise as much as 20% after the semiconductor company announced a multiyear agreement to supply indium phosphide wafers to Tower Semiconductor
- Técnicas Reunidas rises as much as 10% after the Spanish company said it has been awarded two engineering, procurement and construction contracts for upstream facilities to handle oil field production in the Middle East
- Belimo shares advance as much as 9.2% to the highest since July 2025 after Morgan Stanley upgraded the company to overweight, saying much of the company’s revenue growth in coming three years will come from data centers
- Corbion shares rise as much as 8.9% to their highest since February 2025 after the Dutch company got an upgrade to buy at Berenberg, which cited higher fish oil prices and the potential for further consolidation in the food ingredients sector
- Energy and defense stocks are among those underperforming as European stocks rise to a new record, with most sectors trading higher after the US and Iran reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- Kesko falls as much as 11% after the Finnish retailer said it would buy building materials distributor Dahl’s business in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark from Saint-Gobain for €1.2 billion excluding debt. Kesko will sell new shares as part of the financing
- Telia falls as much as 4%, the most since January, after being downgraded to sell from hold at Berenberg, which said expectations of stronger growth are already reflected in the price
- Vistry shares fall as much as 5.6% to the lowest since 1999 after analysts said the homebuilder is cutting prices more aggressively than peers and faces a greater impact from rising build costs
- Luceco slides as much as 12%, retreating from the 2022-high hit at the end of last week, after the maker of electrical products said CEO John Hornby is retiring
- Shares in AJ Bell, DWS and Aberdeen slip after Goldman Sachs downgrades the three investment firms, arguing that recent rallies leave limited upside at a time when the sector faces increased competition and a continued shift toward passive investment
- UCB drops as much as 4.3% after Barclays downgraded the stock to equal-weight from overweight, citing limited upside for the Belgian biopharmaceutical company’s shares over the next 12 months
Asian stocks advanced after the US and Iran announced an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns over energy-supply disruptions that have driven up oil prices. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 3.2%, on track for its biggest two-day rally since March 2022. Japan’s Nikkei 225 soared to a record high, while South Korea’s Kospi and the Philippine index gained more than 5%. Most other regional markets were in the green. The renewed flow of energy under the peace deal is expected to lower inflationary pressures ahead of interest rate decisions this week from the Federal Reserve and other central banks. The threat of tighter monetary policy has clouded the outlook for growth following the artificial intelligence boom of the past few years. Among key factors being watched locally, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate to the highest level since 1995 in its decision due Tuesday. Sectors to Watch
- Chinese electric truck and battery maker stocks rise after the government announced a plan to scale up new‑energy heavy-duty trucks, targeting 40% market penetration.
- Chinese chip stocks advance as risk appetite improves, with sentiment further boosted by a report that ByteDance is in talks with China’s Iluvatar CoreX to buy AI chips.
- Asian gold-related stocks follow precious metal prices higher after the US and Iran reached a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- Asian energy shares fall, tracking a slump in oil, after the US and Iran said they reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Airline stocks rise.
- InnoScience Suzhou Technology’s shares jump as much as 12% in Hong Kong after China’s top court backs the company’s case and blocks Infineon Technologies from selling gallium nitride products in the country.
- Chinese brokerage stocks rise as investors rotate into cyclicals on improved sentiment from Iran peace deal and earnings outlook.
- Japanese space industry stocks plunged after SpaceX surged on its first day of trading in the US Friday.
In rates, treasuries hold opening gap higher, with futures just off session highs in early US session and front-end yields 4bp-5bp lower. Price action is driven by slide in oil prices after the US and Iran reached agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz. Fed rate-hike expectations shift further into the future, with a 25bp move fully priced in by March. Treasury yield curve steepens as front-end tenors outperform, widening 2s10s spread by about 1bp, 5s30s by 2.5bp; 10-year is around 4.44% vs session low 4.418% reached in Asia session, slightly lagging bunds and gilts in the sector. Treasury auctions this week include $13 billion 20-year bond reopening Tuesday and $24 billion 5-year TIPS reopening Thursday. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of offerings so far; dealers forecast about $25 billion this week, concentrated ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting.
In commodities, Brent drops to about $83/barrel and WTI is below $81, down 5% to the lowest since the start of the Iran war. Gold prices are also rising above $4,300/oz on reduced rate-hike bets. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is off its lows but still down against most major currencies.
US economic data calendar includes June Empire manufacturing (8:30am), May industrial production (9:15am) and June NAHB housing market index (10am)
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- The US and Iran said they reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, setting the stage for 60 days of negotiations on the fate of Tehran’s nuclear program. Iran will allow free Hormuz transit during that period under the pact. Both sides will meet in Switzerland on Friday to sign a deal. No text of the accord has been released. BBG
- The stock market is starting to expand again after years of shrinking — and potentially at a scale not seen since the dot-com era. For the better part of two decades, a defining feature of the US stock market has been scarcity. Year after year, shares disappeared from public hands, with buybacks by S&P 500 companies alone erasing nearly $12 trillion worth. BBG
- Treasuries climbed across the curve as investors dialed back expectations for inflation and Fed rate hikes. The reported deal may help alleviate pressure on Kevin Warsh before this week’s policy meeting. BBG
- European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that high energy prices are starting to feed through to other parts of the economy. Lagarde said the ECB will take measures if they start to feel second-round effects, such as wage increases, and are looking at underlying inflation. BBG
- Prices are likely to stay elevated for longer even if the war in Iran were to end soon, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said in an interview with Deutschlandfunk. BBG
- The UK announced a full ban on under-16s using social media from early next year in one of the strictest online crackdowns in the democratic world. BBG
- Russia’s ballistic-missile attacks against Ukraine have grown in ferocity and magnitude in recent weeks because Russian military planners are exploiting one of Ukraine’s greatest weaknesses: The Ukrainian military does not have enough Patriot missile interceptors to keep up with the barrages. NYT
- President Donald Trump has said he will hit France’s wine industry with a 100% tariff on exports to the U.S. if it does not scrap its digital services tax on U.S. technology companies. The warning comes ahead of this week’s G7 meeting in Évian-les-Bains, France. CNBC
- South Korea’s stock market is approaching a milestone of potentially being considered for MSCI Inc.’s developed-market status after surging more than 90% this year. Most investors expect MSCI to keep Korea in the emerging-market camp for now, but believe it’s a matter of time before Korea is classified as a developed market. BBG
- JPM Market Intel team: “We flipped to Tactically Bullish from the previous cautious stance because a potential US–Iran agreement could catalyze a broad risk-on impulse across equities, supported by strong fundamentals. That said, the historical pattern suggests that “everything rally” can fade into concentrated leadership following the initial impulse”
- Volatile market rotations during the past week continued to follow the pattern of the sharpest Momentum rallies in recent decades. Before the sell-off that started two weeks ago, a narrow-breadth Momentum rally had driven the sharpest two-month S&P 500 return since 1971, when scaled relative to volatility. Following similarly sharp rallies in the past, the Momentum factor has usually struggled during the subsequent few months. In addition to the historical precedent, the current market characteristics of elevated trading leverage, still-narrow market breadth, and uncertainty about both the macro outlook and the AI build-out suggest volatility will persist. Goldman
Weekend Iran War Updates
- Over the weekend, the US and Iran announced a 60-day peace framework, marking a significant de-escalation of the conflict. Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil and releasing part of Iran’s frozen assets. Regarding uranium, Iran would be allowed to dilute enriched uranium on site, while the 60-day window allows for further negotiations on its enriched uranium programme. The deal also covers Lebanon, with Pakistan’s PM posting on X that the pact called for the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.
- A source told Fars that the text of the MoU underwent changes that have definitely and explicitly emphasised the issue of exercising Iranian-Oman sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. It is now written that the future of the administration of maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz will be “determined” by Iran and Oman. Furthermore, the change now writes that Iran will only accept ships for 60 days of free passage. That is, the US has accepted the principle of receiving fees and has only taken a 60-day discount from Iran. But after these 60 days, Iran intends to benefit from the financial revenues generated by the traffic.
- Israeli Defence Minister Katz said “we oppose the withdrawal of the IDF from Lebanon… have made it clear to US President Trump”. If Iran attacks Israel because of events in Lebanon, “we will strike it with full force and make sure it clearly understands the gap in capabilities.”
- Israel’s Finance Minister said that “the agreement is bad for the entire world. We will have to continue the campaign in creative ways.”
- Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir said US President Trump’s agreement does not bind us in any way.
- US and Iran to hold preparatory talks in Doha before deal signing, AFP reported citing a diplomat.
- UKMTO receives report of an incident 14 Nautical Miles south of Yemen coast.
- US President Trump posted on Sunday, “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”
- US President Trump said in a New York Times phone interview that he reached a deal, despite objections from Israeli PM Netanyahu, whom he described as “very difficult”, while Trump added the US is to resume Iran strikes if it can’t reach a nuclear accord. Trump also stated that the deal is to ensure the Strait of Hormuz is permanently toll-free and that the MoU suspends tolls in the Strait for 60 days.
- Pakistan’s PM Sharif said, following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the peace deal between the US and the Islamic Republic of Iran has been reached, with the official signing ceremony to take place on Friday, 19th June in Switzerland. Sharif also stated that both sides have declared an immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and that with an agreement now in place, the mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week.
- Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said the text of the memorandum of understanding has been finalised and an official signing of the MoU take place on Friday in Switzerland, while negotiations for a final deal will be held for a period of 60 days and they will take their own measures if they witness breaches from the other side. Gharibabadi said the MoU text will be published after official signing, but does not mean trust in the enemy, as well as noted that among the topics to be discussed in the 60-day negotiations are ending sanctions, mechanisms for Iran’s reconstruction, and establishing mechanisms to monitor all parties’ commitments.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry said an immediate and permanent end to the war and military operations on all fronts is effective Sunday night, while it added that talks are contingent on the release of assets and the lifting of sanctions.
- Iranian media Mehr News reported that the US-Iran 14-point MoU includes a US commitment to lift sanctions, withdraw its forces from around Iran, lift the naval blockade, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift oil sanctions, and release frozen Iranian funds; nuclear issue pushed back by 60 days for final agreement. Additionally, the US is required to present a plan to rebuild Iran’s economy, while the final negotiations between the two countries should focus on nuclear and economic issues, without discussing Iran’s missile program. This text still needs to be reviewed and finalized by the relevant institutions in Iran.
- US official denied Iran’s claim of a USD 12bln unconditional fund release, stating that any release of Iranian funds is tied to a pay-for-performance deal, according to Axios’ Ravid.
- Iran’s chief negotiator/Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Araghchi will travel to Geneva to sign the agreement, while US VP Vance is reported to sign on behalf of Washington, according to NYT. It was also reported by Axios that US VP Vance will meet with Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf in Geneva on Friday to sign the US-Iran agreement.
- Mehr News reported continued violations of the ceasefire, stating that Nabatiyeh and Kafrmanah in southern Lebanon were targeted by Israeli artillery shelling.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks rallied following the announcement that the US and Iran reached an interim agreement to end the hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The deal, which is scheduled to be signed on Friday, immediately ends the US naval blockade against Iran and provides time for negotiations towards a final deal to be held for a period of 60 days. However, there are some differing views between the sides regarding the release of funds, with Iran claiming a USD 12bln unconditional fund release, which a US official pushed back on, stating that any release of Iranian funds is tied to a pay-for-performance deal, while President Trump warned that the US would resume Iran strikes if it can’t reach a nuclear accord. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in the mining, materials and resources sectors, with notable strength seen in gold miners, while energy was at the other end of the spectrum owing to the reaction in underlying commodities to the deal to extend the ceasefire and open the Strait of Hormuz. Nikkei 225 surged to a fresh record high above the 69,000 level with tech, manufacturing and heavy industry stocks boosted amid the lower oil prices and peace agreement. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp tracked the gains of regional peers as the PBoC continued to boost its daily liquidity efforts, and with the gains led by mining and tech, while Chinese airlines soared and oil majors suffered from the drop in oil prices.
Top Asian News
- Fitch affirms China at “A”; outlook stable.
- China issued guidelines on classifying and grading financial information data.
- China is setting up for a commercial launch of a cross-border digital currency platform that would be backed by the central banks of China, Hong Kong, Thailand, the UAE and Saudi Arabia to reduce reliance on the dollar and to draw Beijing closer to its Belt and Road trading partners, according to FT.
- China set out a plan to scale up new-energy heavy-duty trucks and targets 40% market penetration and a fleet of more than 1.6mln vehicles by 2030.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) are rallying after the US and Iran announced a 60-day peace framework, with the STOXX 600 now reaching a new ATH. Details are yet to be confirmed, but it suggests Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the US will lift the naval blockade, waive sanctions on Iranian oil and partially release Iran’s frozen assets. If there is no breakdown of the deal, the MoU is to be officially signed on Friday in Geneva. Sectors are broadly higher. Cyclicals that have suffered from the closure of Hormuz are the clear outperformers (Autos +3.3%, Construction +2.7%, Travel & Leisure +2.4%). Energy (-3.1%) is the clear underperformer, while Utilities (-1.0%) and Telecoms (-1.1%) also show modest losses.
Top European News
- UK PM Starmer is set to backtrack on electric vehicle targets by reducing the all-electric cap from 80% to 50% by the end of the decade amid fears of job losses, according to FT.
- UK PM Starmer confirmed that the Government is to ban social media for all under 16s.
FX
- G10s mostly firmer against the Buck as energy returns to March levels on the US and Iran’s interim agreement. Antipodeans and CHF lead, while USD/JPY briefly ventured below 160.
- DXY -0.3%, is pressured as the risk environment is bolstered by the US-Iran interim deal (see commodities for more details). Fed tightening bets have eased overnight with markets assigning a c. 60% probability of a 25bps hike by year-end. Domestic newsflow light ahead of Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Chair on Wednesday. DXY marked a session trough just below its 21DMA of 99.41.
- EUR is firmer against both the Sterling and Buck as it reacts to the softer energy complex. Some ECB speakers this morning, none of which did much to spur a reaction in the currency, as price action remains dependent on geopolitical developments. A number of speakers are due to provide remarks throughout the week, which could provide hints as to whether further tightening is warranted, but with constructive updates this weekend, the chances are slimmer.
- GBP firms, but to a lesser extent than EUR (EUR/GBP +0.2%) with the Makerfield by-election potentially deciding the next UK Prime Minister, and the BoE meeting on Thursday, likely to see the MPC opt to stand pat on rates in a expected 7-2 vote split. On the former, Burnham was busy on the wires over the weekend. He said he would not touch the state pension triple lock, and there were also further reports suggesting Home Secretary Mahmood was an option for Chancellor. GBP/USD +0.2% with 1.34 vulnerable to the downside. EUR/GBP looks to test 0.8650, where the rally stalled overnight. Upside risks to the cross should UK Political uncertainty continue, and an unconvincing BoE potentially highlight vulnerable EUR-UK differentials.
- CHF is the best performer after the nation voted to reject a proposal to cap its population at 10mln, avoiding issues with the EU (USD/CHF -0.4%). NOK is the worst G10 performer with the popular Middle East conflict trade NOK/SEK continuing to unwind (NOK/SEK -0.9%).
Fixed Income
- Global fixed benchmarks rise as the US and Iran agree to a framework peace deal, which has led to continued and sustained pressure in the crude complex. In brief, the US and Iran have reached a framework peace agreement; the US will lift its naval blockade, and Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, a full text has not yet been released, which has stemmed some uncertainty on a few key points.
- USTs (+9 ticks) are currently off the overnight highs and continued the downward bias throughout the European morning (109-24+ to 111-00 range). Action which has been facilitated by the easing of inflationary implications associated with lower energy prices. From a yield perspective, there is a clear bull steepening. The US 2yr (4.03%) is eyeing the round 4.00% mark but still remains well above the levels seen pre-Iran war (3.47%). The path yields take will be subject to: a) developments heading into Friday’s signing, b) the signing itself, c) the time it takes for stockpiles to be rebuilt. Finally, on Fed pricing, markets now assign a 65% chance of a hike by Dec’26 (vs the prev. fully priced by year-end).
- Bunds (+46 ticks) and Gilts (+46 ticks) both gain, thanks to the positive geopolitical updates; the latter outperforming a touch given the UK’s high reliance on external energy. This also comes ahead of the BoE policy decision this Thursday, where rates are expected to remain on hold – the latest geopolitical updates will only further cement that decision.
Commodities
- Over the weekend,the US and Iran announced a 60-day peace framework, marking a significant de-escalation of the conflict. Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil and releasing part of Iran’s frozen assets. Regarding uranium, Iran would be allowed to dilute enriched uranium on site, while the 60-day window allows for further negotiations on its enriched uranium programme. The deal also covers Lebanon, with Pakistan’s PM posting on X that the pact called for the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. However, comments by Israeli Defence Minister Katz suggest Israel will not back out of Lebanon, stating that Israel opposes the withdrawal of the IDF from Lebanon. Additional comments by Israeli Finance Minister stating the US-Iran agreement is harmful to Israel and that they will have to continue their campaign in creative ways.
- Crude futures gapped lower at the open and have held onto earlier losses. WTI Jul’26 briefly dipped below USD 80/bbl (USD 79.70-82.42/bbl) while Brent Aug’26 trades at the lower end of its USD 82.67-85.93/bbl range.
- Spot gold has benefited from the weekend newsflow, as markets pare back rate hike bets. Markets now assign a c. 60% probability of a hike by December. Spot gold regained the USD 4300/oz handle, currently trading at the upper end of its USD 4281-4346/oz range.
- 3M LME Copper gains amid the constructive risk tone, gapping higher and oscillating in a USD 13.76k-13.87k/t range.
Trade/Tariffs
- US President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on French wine over digital tax and demands France axes 3% tech levy or face a trade war, according to NYP.
- Indian Trade Official said USTR Greer to visit India on June 23-24th with the focus on final revisions to interim agreement.
Central Bank
- ECB’s Kazimir said it is increasingly evident that monetary policy has more work to do and is not comfortable with outlook for core inflation above 2% even with more tightening. Even with the US-Iran peace framework, damage in the Middle East cannot be undone overnight and is leaning towards frontloading work that needs to be done, but need to be agile and responsive to incoming information.
- ECB’s Nagel said the ECB is keeping all options open for July meeting and that the ECB is no longer dealing with short-term supply shock. Can’t exclude second-round effects from energy. ECB policy settings are still broadly neutral but there is no relief in sight for the foreseeable future.
- ECB’s Kazaks said the ECB can move gradually but is ready to act if needed. To add, Kazaks still see upside risks to inflation.
Ukraine updates
- Ukraine targeted a Russian chemical plant and fuel depot in strikes. It was separately reported that three people were killed and another three were injured in Russia’s city of Tula following a drone attack, while a Ukrainian attack damaged two bridges in the Russian-held Kherson region.
- Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant was reconnected to the grid after repairs were carried out under an IAEA-brokered local ceasefire.
- UK forces boarded a sanctioned tanker in the Channel on Sunday in a raid on Russia’s shadow fleet.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Jun Empire Manufacturing, est. 13.5, prior 19.6
- 9:15 am: May Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.7%
- 9:15 am: May Capacity Utilization, est. 76.2%, prior 76.1%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I hope you all had a good weekend. It was the school fete, and my kids ran what they felt was a very successful homemade lemonade and orangeade stand. The kids and my wife were saying it made so much money they could set up their own business. Without wanting to be a party pooper I had to remind them that I saw the costs on my bank statement. A few hundred oranges and lemons, lots of soda water, other ingredients, an industrial vat to mix it, a few huge glass bottles with taps to dispense them and then all the cups. Oh, and the gazebo, and no ground rent so far. So if anyone wants to invest in this bunch of well-meaning dreamers, please feel free to take me out of my stake. Although if the IPO market stays this buoyant maybe I’ll just hold on and float it in a few weeks.
The fizz in staying in markets this morning as after 107 days and a seemingly endless number of false dawns, we finally have a deal between the US and Iran to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz. It was announced at around 10:30pm UK last night and the MoU will be signed in Switzerland on Friday. According to statements carried by Iranian state-affiliated media, the agreement includes a phased lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the unfreezing of roughly $12bn in overseas assets, and a commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days (after mine clearing) alongside the removal of the US naval blockade. The deal also sets out a 60-day negotiation window on a broader accord, including constraints around Iran’s nuclear programme, where Tehran is expected to commit to maintaining its current status and not pursuing nuclear weapons. The US hasn’t been so explicit and whilst the deal is very good news for markets it looks like tough conversations will have occur in the 60-day window to ensure the peace is sustainable. As an example, the Senate needs to approve any extensive sanction relief for Iran.
For now the can kicking exercise has been very well received by markets even after a strong US close on Friday where hopes were raised of a weekend signing. Brent is -4.3% lower at $83.31/bbl and S&P 500 (+1.20%), NASDAQ 100 (+1.90%) and Stoxx (+1.60%) futures are higher as I type and in Asia the KOSPI (+5.56%) is again leading the charge with the Nikkei (+5.24%) not far behind and at fresh record highs. The CSI and Shanghai Composite are +1.47% and +0.94% respectively, while the Hang Seng is +0.45%. The S&P/ASX 200 (+1.34%) is also trading significantly higher ahead of tomorrow’s RBA meeting. 10-year USTs are trading -5.3bps lower at 4.43% as I write with 2-yr yields -5.7bps lower.
The other major story is the decision late on Friday from the US government to issue an export control directive forcing Anthropic to restrict access to its most advanced models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, released to great global acclaim last week, to US nationals only, citing undefined national security concerns. In practice, because it is operationally difficult to separate users by nationality, Anthropic opted to suspend access to these models entirely on a global basis. The move marks one of the first instances of the US applying export controls not just to AI hardware (e.g. semiconductors) but directly to frontier models themselves, reflecting a growing view of AI as a strategic, dual use asset.
Clearly the export control may only be temporary as the cited jailbreak risk is examined and rectified quickly. This is probably the most likely outcome. However, if it longer-term, and more strategic from the US government, it’s not great news for US tech firms or for those assuming breakneck speed of AI adoption. US tech firms require a global marketplace to justify their huge investments so far. In addition, global enterprise would want to ensure any models they purchase are usable, especially for business-critical operations. You can’t rely on something that could be switched off. So all eyes on what Anthropic and the US government agree as the next step.
Outside of Iran and AI, central banks will dominate the global agenda in the coming week, with key policy decisions across the Fed, BoJ and BoE alongside important inflation and activity data.
The primary focus will be the United States and Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, which marks the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The leadership transition introduces a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty around both policy signalling and communication style. While an immediate policy shift is unlikely, the meeting will be closely scrutinised for early indications of how Warsh intends to reshape the Fed’s framework, particularly given his stated ambition for a broader “regime change”.
In terms of the statement, a modest upgrade to the labour market assessment appears likely, reflecting steady job growth and a broadly stable unemployment rate. More importantly, the guidance language could shift meaningfully. Warsh has been openly critical of heavy reliance on forward guidance, so the Committee may lean towards a more neutral, data-dependent formulation. This would effectively remove any residual easing bias and reopen the possibility of further tightening should inflation dynamics warrant it. Any such adjustment would be interpreted as a recalibration towards optionality rather than a firm directional signal.
Beyond the headline statement, attention will turn to the Summary of Economic Projections. The distribution of rate expectations may shift upwards, with 4 or 5 policymakers signalling the potential for hikes into 2026 and beyond. This would likely nudge the median path higher across the projection horizon and reinforce the idea that the Fed is not yet comfortable declaring victory on inflation. Our economists note that Warsh may not submit dots which would reflect his views on forward guidance. Revisions to inflation forecasts, particularly for the outer years, will also be closely examined for evidence of more persistent price pressures. At the moment our economists expect core PCE for 2027 to be raised by a tenth to 2.3%.
However, the most revealing element of the meeting may be Warsh’s press conference. His prior remarks suggest he will likely place less emphasis on near-term data fluctuations and explicit forward guidance, instead favouring a broader narrative around structural forces such as productivity and technological change. While this could temper the immediate hawkish interpretation, markets may test whether this framing is sufficient to justify patience in the face of still-elevated inflation. Just as important will be any early signals on communication reform—whether through changes to the dot plot, adjustments to the SEP, or a broader rethink of how the Fed conveys uncertainty. So a fascinating meeting to look forward to.
In terms of US data, the focus will be on May retail sales due Wednesday, and our US economists expect a +0.5% MoM rise in the headline (same as in April). Industrial production is due today (DB forecast is a +0.1% MoM increase, down from +0.7% in April) and there will be several housing indicators out this week as well. US markets will be on holiday for the Juneteenth National Independence Day on Friday.
Outside the US, central bank activity remains heavy. In Europe, decisions are due from the Riksbank and a cluster of Thursday meetings including the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank. In the UK, the BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged, with attention focused on the vote split (our team expect 7-2) and any evolution in guidance against a backdrop of still-sticky inflation (see preview here). Incoming UK data, particularly CPI (Wednesday), labour market indicators (Thursday) and retail sales (Friday), will provide important context for the policy outlook. Meanwhile, euro area attention will also be shaped by ongoing commentary from ECB officials and sentiment indicators such as the German ZEW survey (tomorrow).
Political developments will also be in focus, with the G7 leaders meeting early in the week (today through Wednesday) followed by the European Council summit (Thursday-Friday).
In Asia, the Bank of Japan meeting (tomorrow) stands out, with expectations for a further rate increase as part of its gradual normalisation process. Japanese inflation data later in the week (Friday) will help gauge whether underlying price momentum continues to justify policy tightening. In China, their monthly activity data tomorrow covering industrial production and retail sales will provide an updated read on the growth trajectory, with expectations for a modest improvement after recent softness.
Elsewhere in the region, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to remain on hold (tomorrow), while New Zealand’s GDP release (Wednesday) will offer further insight into the strength of its economic recovery.
Recapping last week now, and markets saw big moves on the back of geopolitical developments, as tensions first mounted in the Middle East, before easing markedly into the weekend. Overall, hopes for an imminent deal meant that oil prices came down, with Brent crude closing beneath $90/bbl for the first time since early March, down -6.19% to close at $87.33bbl (-3.37% Friday). Indeed, that was clear across the futures curve, with the 6-month Brent future also down -3.46% to $81.69/bbl, its lowest level since April.
With oil prices at their lowest in months, that helped to ease fears about a wider stagflationary shock. Moreover, investors also became dovish on the future rates outlook. For instance, futures were fully pricing in a Fed rate hike by December at the start of the week, but that probability was down to 82% by the weekend. So that meant the 10yr Treasury yield fell -5.0bps (+1.9bps Friday) to 4.48%. And over in Europe, the 10yr bund yield fell -3.7bps to 2.99%, with markets looking through the ECB’s 25bp hike given it was already priced in beforehand.
For equities this provided a strong backdrop, as positive geopolitical headlines and easing inflation fears supported optimism on the near-term outlook. So the S&P 500 managed to pare back some of the previous week’s decline, with a weekly gain of +0.65% (+0.50% Friday). And over in Europe, there were even stronger gains for the STOX 600, which rose +1.69% (+1.88% Friday). In the tech space, there was another big gain for the Philly semiconductor index, which rose +9.42% last week, but that followed a -10.26% decline on the previous Friday, so the index was still beneath its levels prior to that slump. Meanwhile, rotation away from mega caps saw the Mag-7 fall by -2.54%.
Some other assets also saw less favorable moves. In Germany, the DAX fell -0.50%, making it a relative underperformer in Europe, while Japan’s Nikkei fell -0.85%. Otherwise, HY credit spreads widened on both sides of the Atlantic, with US HY up +1bps and Euro HY up +18bps, though IG spreads were more sanguine, with US IG down -1bps and Euro IG flat. And gold fell -2.52% to its lowest weekly close of 2026 at $4,219/oz.
1 b European opening report
1 c) Asian opening report
Risk assets rally as Brent slips to $83 on US-Iran framework peace agreement – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Monday, Jun 15, 2026 – 02:16 AM
- The US and Iran have reached a framework peace agreement; the US will lift its naval blockade, whilst the Iranians will reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Pakistani PM suggested it would be signed in person on Friday, 19th June; Brent Aug’26 -4.3%.
- The deal includes the termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon; Israel has yet to comment on the latest deal.
- Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said talks are contingent on the release of assets and the lifting of sanctions; though a US official pushed back on the unconditional fund release, stating that any release is tied to a pay-for-performance deal.
- APAC stocks rallied following the US-Iran deal announcement; European equity futures are indicative of a strong open.
- DXY pressured back towards the 99.40 level; Antipodeans outperform given the risk tone.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Wholesale Prices (May), EU Industrial Production (Apr), US Industrial/Manufacturing Production (May), and comments from ECB’s Lagarde.
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IRAN CONFLICT
Details on the US-Iran deal:
- US President Trump posted on Sunday, “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”
- US President Trump said in a New York Times phone interview that he reached a deal, despite objections from Israeli PM Netanyahu, whom he described as “very difficult”, while Trump added the US is to resume Iran strikes if it can’t reach a nuclear accord. Trump also stated that the deal is to ensure the Strait of Hormuz is permanently toll-free and that the MoU suspends tolls in the Strait for 60 days.
- US President Trump posted that the deal with Iran is now complete and he fully authorises the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and immediate removal of the US naval blockade, while he added ‘Let the oil flow!’
- US President Trump posted “This Great Deal will bring Peace and Security to the whole Region. Many presidents have tried to make Peace with Iran, and all have failed before me. The Leaders of the Region have, for the first time, found a President who can help them achieve real Peace. With the opening of the Strait upon the signing of the Deal on Friday, for the purposes of mine removal, oil will flow on both ends again for the Region, and the World!”
- Pakistan’s PM Sharif said, following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the peace deal between the US and the Islamic Republic of Iran has been reached, with the official signing ceremony to take place on Friday, 19th June in Switzerland. Sharif also stated that both sides have declared an immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and that with an agreement now in place, the mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week.
- Iran’s National Security Council confirmed the finalisation of the Memorandum of Understanding with the US, with the signing scheduled for June 19th, while it stated that war and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, are to end immediately and permanently from Sunday night, and the maritime blockade on Iran is also to end immediately and completely. Furthermore, final agreement talks are set to commence after the US fulfils commitments under the MoU.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry said an immediate and permanent end to the war and military operations on all fronts is effective Sunday night, while it added that talks are contingent on the release of assets and the lifting of sanctions.
- Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said the text of the memorandum of understanding has been finalised and an official signing of the MoU take place on Friday in Switzerland, while negotiations for a final deal will be held for a period of 60 days and they will take their own measures if they witness breaches from the other side. Gharibabadi said the MoU text will be published after official signing, but does not mean trust in the enemy, as well as noted that among the topics to be discussed in the 60-day negotiations are ending sanctions, mechanisms for Iran’s reconstruction, and establishing mechanisms to monitor all parties’ commitments.
- Iran’s Mehr News Agency detailed the 14-article draft agreement between Iran and the US, which included a permanent and immediate cessation of the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, as well as the complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days and the US committing to withdrawing its forces from around Iran. It is also said to include a 60-day negotiation period to reach a final agreement focused on nuclear issues, the suspension of sanctions, the release of USD 24bln in frozen Iranian funds during the 60-day negotiation period, with half to be made available before talks begin, and final negotiations would not begin until half of Iran’s frozen funds are released, oil-related sanctions are suspended, and the naval blockade is lifted. However, a US official denied Iran’s claim of a USD 12bln unconditional fund release, stating that any release of Iranian funds is tied to a pay-for-performance deal, according to Axios’s Ravid.
- Iran’s chief negotiator/Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Araghchi will travel to Geneva to sign the agreement, while US VP Vance is reported to sign on behalf of Washington, according to NYT. It was also reported by Axios that US VP Vance will meet with Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf in Geneva on Friday to sign the US-Iran agreement.
Other updates:
- US President Trump previously said an interim deal to end the conflict with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz would be signed on Sunday, despite Iranian state media stating that there was no final decision on an agreement, while Fars News Agency reported that Iran said an agreement would not be reached by Trump’s Sunday timeline.
- US President said earlier that an Iran deal was imminent and he planned to issue a statement soon confirming a deal with Iran, according to WSJ. Trump said they are to get nuclear dust when they are ready to go in, and it could be over the next 1-2 months regarding the timing of nuclear removal. Furthermore, he said that he or VP Vance would sign the deal electronically and there would be strong inspections on Iran, while sanctions may be lifted depending on Iran’s moves.
- US President Trump urged Israel to stop its operations after Israel bombed Lebanon’s capital of Beirut in retaliation for Hezbollah drone incursions, while he posted that the attack on Beirut should not have happened, particularly on a special day that they are so close to a peace deal with Iran. Trump stated that Israel has the right to defend itself against threats, but the attack it was responding to was very small and meaningless, while he added that nobody was hurt, injured, or killed, and it should not disrupt this important process. Furthermore, he said “There should be no more attacks by Israel anywhere in Lebanon, but there should also be no more attacks by any other party, including Hezbollah, against Israel.”
- US President Trump criticised Israeli PM Netanyahu following Israel’s bombing of Beirut and was reported to have used expletive language in a conversation with Netanyahu, while he told him not to conduct anymore strikes on Beirut and is to ask Iran not to fire at Israel in response, according to Fox News. There were also separate reports that Israeli PM Netanyahu is seeking an urgent meeting with US President Trump after the upcoming G7, while Trump told Axios that the signing of a deal with Iran was still on track for Sunday.
- US President Trump announced on Friday night that the US military shot down multiple one-way attack drones that were headed towards the Strait of Hormuz in a threat to commercial traffic.
- US President Trump is to meet with the US’ Middle East partners at the G7 summit in France.
- US Secretary of State Rubio defended the US position regarding the Strait of Hormuz and discussed recent developments in a call with India’s External Affairs Minister after India protested regarding US strikes which killed three Indian mariners.
- Iran heavily criticised the strikes on Beirut and its Foreign Ministry said that the country holds the US and Israel responsible for the consequences of regional escalation.
- Iran said the draft US deal includes oil sanctions waiver, nuclear limits and asset release, while Iran reportedly circulated competing versions of the proposed interim agreement with the US.
- Iran Supreme National Security Council Secretary Zolghadr described Lebanon as the lifeblood of Iran’s strategic interests and warned that any violation of Iran’s red lines will not be tolerated. Furthermore, Iranian Supreme Leader’s adviser Velayati warned that ‘zero hour’ is upon us and that rocket launchers are being prepared after Israel’s attack on Beirut.
- Mehr News reported continued violations of the ceasefire, stating that Nabatiyeh and Kafrmanah in southern Lebanon were targeted by Israeli artillery shelling.
- Iran suspended all flights to and from its western airports on Sunday, according to Tasnim.
- Qatari mediators flew to Tehran on Sunday morning to help facilitate the finalisation of the US-Iran agreement.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks closed in the green on Friday amid the global risk-on trade as Iran and the US appeared closer than ever to a peace deal, although some points still needed clarification before the two countries sign on the dotted line. Highlighting how close they may be, mediator Pakistan PM Sharif said he can confirm that a final, agreed-upon text of the peace deal has been reached and Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalise the next steps, with source reports adding both the US and Iran have informed mediators of their readiness to sign. Sectors were largely in the green with only Consumer Discretionary and Health marginally in the red as a lot of focus surrounded the SpaceX IPO, which shares closed at USD 161/shr, against the IPO price of USD 135/shr.
- SPX +0.50% at 7,431, NDX +0.64% at 29,636, DJI +0.69% at 51,207, RUT +0.79% at 2,944.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TRADE
- US officials said the US and India are to discuss trade at the G7, although a deal was said not to be imminent, while it was separately reported that USTR Greer is to travel to India for trade talks in the week after the G7 leaders’ summit and that a trade agreement was possible.
- China’s MOFCOM said it firmly opposes the US decision to label additional firms as “military companies”, and accused the US of using national security as a pretext to curb the development of Chinese firms.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump denied claims that he filed a collusive lawsuit against a US agency under his control to orchestrate the creation of a USD 1.8bln weaponisation fund.
- US’s best weapon to combat the New World screwworm parasite is more than a year away from showing meaningful results, which raises concerns the outbreak could spread before then.
- US Screwworm outbreak reportedly poses new political risk for President Trump with 12 cases confirmed in Texas and New Mexico, while the USDA plans over USD 1bln fight against the outbreak, according to Axios.
- Coalition of US state attorneys general is probing OpenAI and requested information on a wide range of topics.
- Anthropic shut down access to its most advanced AI models, including Mythos, following the Trump administration’s sweeping order to keep the technology out of foreign hands.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks rallied following the announcement that the US and Iran reached an interim agreement to end the hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The deal, which is scheduled to be signed on Friday, immediately ends the US naval blockade against Iran and provides time for negotiations towards a final deal to be held for a period of 60 days. However, there are some differing views between the sides regarding the release of funds, with Iran claiming a USD 12bln unconditional fund release, which a US official pushed back on, stating that any release of Iranian funds is tied to a pay-for-performance deal, while President Trump warned that the US would resume Iran strikes if it can’t reach a nuclear accord.
- ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in the mining, materials and resources sectors, with notable strength seen in gold miners, while energy was at the other end of the spectrum owing to the reaction in underlying commodities to the deal to extend the ceasefire and open the Strait of Hormuz.
- Nikkei 225 surged to a fresh record high above the 69,000 level with tech, manufacturing and heavy industry stocks boosted amid the lower oil prices and peace agreement.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp tracked the gains of regional peers as the PBoC continued to boost its daily liquidity efforts, and with the gains led by mining and tech, while Chinese airlines soared and oil majors suffered from the drop in oil prices.
- US equity futures steadily rallied after gapping higher on the US-Iran peace agreement.
- European equity futures indicate a higher open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 1.7% after the cash market closed with gains of 2.2% on Friday.
FX
- DXY was pressured amid the broad risk-on environment owing to the US-Iran interim peace agreement, while the lower oil prices dragged yields lower and unwound Fed rate hike bets. However, the downside in the dollar is somewhat cushioned ahead of this week’s busy schedule of central bank announcements including from the BoJ, RBA, Fed and BoE, while questions remain on how a final deal will be reached during the 60-day period for negotiations amid differing views between the sides regarding an unconditional fund release for Iran and with Trump also warning that the US would resume Iran strikes if it can’t reach a nuclear accord.
- EUR/USD gained on the back of a weaker dollar and reclaimed the 1.1600 status, while there were hawkish comments over the weekend from ECB’s Nagel that prices are likely to stay elevated for longer even if the Iran conflict ends soon.
- GBP/USD strengthened at the start of trade but is off today’s best levels with participants awaiting key events later in the week, including the BoE rate decision and the Makerfield by-election, where Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is seeking a return to parliament, which would make him eligible for a leadership bid.
- USD/JPY initially slumped beneath the 160.00 level but then gradually rebounded and briefly returned to flat territory amid a lack of data releases for Japan and as the BoJ kick-started its 2-day policy meeting, with a 25bps hike likely to be delivered.
- Antipodeans benefitted from the heightened risk appetite and with upside in metal prices, while participants also await tomorrow’s RBA meeting, where the central bank is likely to pause after three consecutive rate hikes, but continue to deliver a hawkish tone.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8088 vs exp. 6.7544 (prev. 6.8109)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures climbed as the drop in oil prices, following the announcement of the US-Iran interim agreement, eased inflationary concerns and resulted in an unwinding of Fed rate hike bets with traders now pricing a greater likelihood that the Fed stands pat on rates throughout the year.
- Bund futures resumed upward momentum and gained a firmer footing above the 126.00 level amid lower energy prices and despite hawkish comments from ECB’s Nagel, while German Wholesale prices loom.
- 10yr JGB futures rallied as the peace agreement and subsequent drop in oil prices drove global asset classes, while participants look ahead to a busy week of central bank announcements, including from the BoJ, which kick-started its 2-day policy meeting.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures slumped at the reopen following the announcement on Sunday that the US and Iran reached an interim peace agreement which would open the Strait of Hormuz and is due to be signed on Friday in Switzerland, while Trump stated that he authorises the immediate removal of the US naval blockade and that oil will flow with the opening of the Strait of Hormuz upon the signing of the deal on Friday.
- Kuwait set crude prices for Asia at a premium of USD 5.25/bbl above the Oman/Dubai average.
- Polish PM Tusk said they are preparing to end fuel subsidies as US-Iran peace talks progress.
- Trinidad and Tobago’s Energy Minister said Venezuela’s granting of a licence to Shell (SHEL LN) for the exploration and exploitation of gas will lead to 1.7tln cubic feet of gas being exported to his country.
- Spot gold rallied to above the USD 4,300/oz level as lower oil prices eased inflationary pressures, dragged yields lower, unwound Fed rate hike bets and weakened the greenback.
- Copper futures extended on last week’s advances amid the broad risk-on environment.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin traded indecisively above the USD 65,000 level and heads into the European morning flat.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China issued guidelines on classifying and grading financial information data.
- China is setting up for a commercial launch of a cross-border digital currency platform that would be backed by the central banks of China, Hong Kong, Thailand, the UAE and Saudi Arabia to reduce reliance on the dollar and to draw Beijing closer to its Belt and Road trading partners, according to FT.
- China set out a plan to scale up new-energy heavy-duty trucks and targets 40% market penetration and a fleet of more than 1.6mln vehicles by 2030.
- South Korea agreed with the US to cooperate on the weak won, according to Yonhap.
GLOBAL
- Brazilian Nu Holdings Ltd co-founder apologised to Nubank customers after a mistaken app alert was sent to customers stating that the bank had been liquidated.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US President Trump held a friendly and frank call with Russian President Putin on Sunday, during Trump’s birthday, while he also spoke with Ukrainian President Zelensky, even as peace talks between Russia and Ukraine were on hold.
- Ukraine targeted a Russian chemical plant and fuel depot in strikes. It was separately reported that three people were killed and another three were injured in Russia’s city of Tula following a drone attack, while a Ukrainian attack damaged two bridges in the Russian-held Kherson region.
- Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant was reconnected to the grid after repairs were carried out under an IAEA-brokered local ceasefire.
- UK forces boarded a sanctioned tanker in the Channel on Sunday in a raid on Russia’s shadow fleet.
OTHER
- US President Trump said the US killed the leader of the Tren De Aragua drug cartel in a strike with the assistance of Venezuela.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK PM Starmer is set to backtrack on electric vehicle targets by reducing the all-electric cap from 80% to 50% by the end of the decade amid fears of job losses, according to FT.
- UK PM-candidate Burnham said that he would not touch the state pension triple lock, iPaper reports.
- UK and Japan are expected to agree on a GBP 18bln clean energy investment deal that is predicted to create new jobs in the offshore wind, infrastructure and financial services sectors.
- UK is to announce a social media ban for teens this week, according to Culture Secretary Nandy.
- ECB’s Nagel said prices are likely to stay elevated for longer even if the Iran conflict ends soon.
- Fitch affirmed European Stability Mechanism at AAA; Outlook Stable, while it also affirmed Norway at AAA; Outlook Stable.
- Swiss voters rejected the proposal to cap its population at 10mln, avoiding issues with the EU.
DATA RECAP
- UK Rightmove House Prices MM (Jun) -0.6% (Prev. 1.2%)
- UK Rightmove House Prices YY (Jun) -0.5% (Prev. -0.3%)
2.NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN
SOUTH KOREA
JAPAN
3 CHINA
CHINA/
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
UK
(STEPHEN GREEN/PJMEDIA.COM)
Britain Goes Full ‘Airstrip One’
by Tyler Durden
Saturday, Jun 13, 2026 – 09:20 AM
Authored by Stephen Green via PJMedia.com,
In George Orwell’s 1984, Great Britain was just a province of Oceania named “Airstrip One” as a none-too-subtle nod to the U.K.’s role as host to the heavy bombers of U.S. Eighth Air Force during World War II.
Four decades past the real 1984, and there’s still no Oceania. But Britain looks more and more like Airstrip One as Parliament considers a bill opening up everyone’s smartphone to government supervision — and jail time for tech execs who don’t submit.
You had to figure this was probably coming, right?
Right.
Reclaim the Net reports that “Ministers are reportedly drafting a law that would force Apple, Google, and the rest to make it impossible for a child to send, receive, view, or share a single nude image, with the executives who refuse facing up to five years in prison.”
That might sound all well and good, but as usual, For the Children™ is little more than the government’s justification for total surveillance.
“You cannot block every naked picture someone might stumble across without inspecting every picture, every message, every video call, every streamed film, on every device, all the time,” Reclaim noted, with nudity serving as “the excuse and the unbroken view into your phone is the actual prize.”
The industry term is “client-side scanning,” which sounds much nicer than “a government mandated app that looks at everything on your phone all the time.”
And even that sounds better than “Big Brother is Watching You,” which is exactly what it is.
As already required by Britain’s Online Safety Act, Apple and Google forcibly install age verification on every iPhone and Android device in the UK via app store updates.
No, it can’t be uninstalled.
As I reported in January, what this means in practice is that London’s Office of Communications (“Ofcom” in Newspeak) mandates on-device software able to read everybody’s “private” messages in real-time and scan their images, too, before any personal encryption tools come into play.
London pinky-swears that it’ll only look for CSAM and terrorism-related materials, but as the Telegram’s Zia Yusuf put it back then, “the slippery slope is obvious” and “mission creep is inevitable.” The country looking to ban traditional chef’s knives (really!) in the name of safety simply cannot be trusted with this much digital power.
Nobody can, really.
The way things work now, if you don’t pass the mandatory age check, the iPhone software bars adult websites on every installable browser, and the Communication Safety feature scans every AirDrop, FaceTime, Messages, and photo for nudity, blurring whatever it catches. And the Android filter works in a similar way.
All For the Children™, naturally.
But as Reclaim also pointed out, client-side scanning is “a general-purpose content scanner pointed at one target this year and swivelable toward any other the next, a flyer for the wrong march, a banned book, a face the Home Office has taken against.”
Now that the software is installed, Parliament can authorize the Home Office to ignore the age check and look for whatever it wants to on literally everyone’s device. That’s exactly what Parliament wants to do next.
Orwell envisioned ever-present two-way telescreens mounted on almost every wall that could only try to monitor everyone all the time. He never envisioned a telescreen that people would pay good money for, carry around 24/7, and trust with their every notion and secret.
end
ROMANIA
Romania Asks Ukraine To Add Self-Destruct Function To Stray Drones, After One Exploded At Its Port
Saturday, Jun 13, 2026 – 07:35 AM
Errant Ukrainian drones which wonder across borders and into neighboring Baltic and Eastern European countries are becoming enough of a problem to where some NATO allies pushing for a self-destruct function.
Romanian Defense Minister Radu Miruta has proposed that Ukraine program its maritime drones to self-destruct if they veer into the country’s territorial waters, coming just on the heels of a major disaster.
The remarks were prompted by a Magura-type kamikaze naval drone having exploded in Romania’s Black Sea port of Constanta on Friday.
Others also detonated while still at sea east of the city, apparently close enough to Romanian waters to be of serious concern – though Ukraine’s navy bit back by alleging that Russian signal jamming is to blame.
Miruta said that “maritime drones can be programmed so that, if control is lost, they are unable to enter Romanian territorial waters and will self-destruct once they are 12 nautical miles from the coast.”
“This should be a default feature built into the system from the moment the drone is launched into the water,” he said.
The drone explosions were serious, just judging by the photographs and videos alone:
A Ukrainian maritime drone that was being used in the country’s war against Russia exploded Friday at a Black Sea port in Romania, while three other sea drones exploded outside the port, Romanian authorities said. No one was hurt.
The drone that self-detonated in the port of Constanta exploded at around 10:30 a.m., after the area had been secured and isolated by the Romanian Intelligence Service, coast guard and the Defense Ministry, authorities said.
The Romanian government described in a statement: “Immediately after identifying the drone, the Ministry of Defense contacted its Ukrainian counterparts, who confirmed that they had lost control of the operation of four drones.”
“The other three drones self-detonated — two offshore and the third outside the port,” it added. “Confirmation of these events came from both the Ukrainian side and from data obtained by the Romanian authorities.”
There have also been a lot of errant aerial drone incidents of late, prompting NATO to scramble aircraft and shoot them out of the sky. These aerial drones might need a self-destruct feature as well.
END
SWEDEN
solving the wrong problem: it is migrants that are the problem
Sweden Plans To Lower Criminal Age To 14 Amid Rise In Violent Crime By Children
Saturday, Jun 13, 2026 – 08:45 AM
Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times,
The Swedish government has announced plans to reduce the age of criminal responsibility to 14 after dropping plans to lock up violent offenders as young as 13 in special prison units.
Ambulance and police stand at the scene where Swedish rapper Einar was fatally shot in Hammarby Sjostad district, in Stockholm, Sweden, on Oct. 22, 2021. Christine Olsson/TT News Agency via AP
Earlier this month, Swedish Justice Minister Gunnar Strommer announced plans to cut the age from 15 to 13, but on June 11, he said there was not enough support in parliament for that and that he had agreed to compromise at 14.
“We are going to propose that the age of criminal responsibility should be cut to 14 instead of 13 years old,” Strommer told reporters.
Currently, anyone under 15 who is suspected of having committed a serious crime is sent to a youth home, run by social services, and cannot be sentenced to a custodial sentence in prison.
Strommer said in 2025 that more than 50 children under 15 were suspected of murder or attempted murder.
There has been a surge in gang crime and drug-related violence in Sweden over the past 20 years, and it now has one of the highest rates of shootings and bombings in Europe, dozens of which were carried out by minors.
Thousands Of Gang Members
Swedish police estimate there are 17,500 active gang members and around 50,000 who are loosely associated with them.
Magnus Lindgren, a former police chief in Uppsala County and current secretary-general of the Safer Sweden Foundation, told The Epoch Times last year that there were about 15,000 “very dangerous criminals” in Sweden, who were divided evenly into biker gangs, football hooligans, and criminals from around 60 high-crime neighborhoods.
Organized crime gangs, such as the Foxtrot Network, use social media to recruit teenagers and children as young as 11 to commit acts of violence, including bombings and murders.
The recruiters, who operate anonymously, post adverts in special groups on social media apps and offer money through banking apps.
The EU’s law enforcement agency, Europol, launched Operational Taskforce GRIMM in April 2025 to target so-called “violence-as-a-service,” which it said often used “young perpetrators.”
After the 2022 elections, Ulf Kristersson, the leader of the center-right Moderates, formed a government that includes the Christian Democrats and Liberals, but has the crucial support of the right-wing Sweden Democrats, who campaigned against immigration and in favor of tougher criminal justice measures.
Kristersson’s government has overhauled Sweden’s criminal justice system, giving the police more powers and introducing tougher sentences for violent crime.
Under the new plans, children aged 14 who are convicted of violent criminal offenses will be sent to special prison units.
The U.N. Committee on the Rights of the Child recommends that the age of criminal responsibility should be no lower than 14, which is the average across the European Union.
Swedish organized crime networks are also operating in Denmark, Norway, and Finland, and also in the Netherlands and Belgium, which have the two biggest ports – Rotterdam and Antwerp – for importing narcotics, hidden in cargo.
On March 12, 2025, sanctions were imposed on Rawa Majid, the alleged leader of the Foxtrot Network, one of Sweden’s largest organized crime groups, by the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).
OFAC stated that the gang trafficked illegal drugs and carried out attacks on Israelis and Jews in Europe on behalf of the Iranian government.
Norwegian Teen On Trial
A Norwegian teenager, Johannes Natland, was arrested in Huddersfield, England, in March 2025 and is currently on trial in London, where he has pleaded not guilty to conspiracy to murder on behalf of the Foxtrot Network.
Natland, who was 18 at the time, was found in possession of two handguns and 17 bullets and has admitted to possessing firearms.
Giving evidence in court this week, Natland said he had been offered 25,000 euros ($29,000) to kill someone but said he planned to shoot himself in the foot to get out of having to do it, the BBC reported.
“I thought if I was to say no, I would be in serious danger, they’re going to hurt my family,” Natland said. “I thought they’d kill me.”
The Epoch Times reached out to Natland’s barrister, Paul Hynes KC, for comment but did not receive a response.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson attends a press conference in Stockholm, Sweden, on Feb. 26, 2024. Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP via Getty Images
end
EUROPE
REMIX…
‘The Suicide Of Europe’: Historic EU Migration Pact Goes Into Force Today As Fracture-Lines Grow
Saturday, Jun 13, 2026 – 07:00 AM
Six years ago, in 2020, French political leader Marine Le Pen described the Migrant Pact, which was then in the planning stages, as the “suicide of Europe.” She said it would bring 60 to 70 million new migrants to Europe, as Remix News reported at the time.
Europe is about to find out just how prophetic its critics have been. On June 12, the highly contested EU Migration Pact officially came into force, instantly triggering a sharp political divide across the continent.
Brussels is already signaling a hardline approach toward resistance; the bloc’s own EU Migration Commissioner recently admitted that the Union is preparing a “crackdown” on member states that refuse to comply with the new relocation directives.
At the heart of the controversy is the pact’s mandatory migrant quotas, framed by Brussels as “burden-sharing.” In practice, critics argue this distribution system allows nations like Germany and France a convenient mechanism to offload asylum seekers onto Central and Eastern European nations – such as Poland and Hungary – which have historically maintained strict anti-refugee stances.
Europe’s anti-immigration politicians are already responding to what they say is a law that will bring disaster to Europe. Le Pen, six years later, is calling for a “constitutional referendum on immigration.”
“Tomorrow, the Migration Pact will enter into force. It will require the States of the European Union to welcome migrants, under penalty of fines. When we come to power, we will propose to the French a constitutional referendum on immigration, the only means to regain control of our migration policy,” she wrote on X.
The financial penalties for defiance are severe. Non-compliant governments face fines as high as €21,000 per migrant, potentially costing dissenting nations hundreds of millions of euros. Furthermore, the pact allows for these financial penalties to be adjusted upward in the coming years, which could quickly escalate the cost of non-compliance into billions of euros.
Meanwhile, other establishment European politicians are celebrating the move. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz tried to frame the migration pact as a positive for controlling immigration.
“The migration turnaround has been initiated—nationally and at the European level. As of today, the Common European Asylum System applies: better control and order, faster procedures, and a fair distribution of responsibility. The reform must be implemented effectively. This is how our country will benefit,” wrote Merz.
Of course, the EU is also trying to sell the pact on social media as well.
The end goal of the EU Migration Pact
Linguistically, the EU’s emphasis on sharing a migration “burden” represents a stark rhetorical departure from the peak of the 2016 refugee crisis. A decade ago, newcomers were widely championed by Brussels as Europe’s future workforce—the doctors, lawyers, and engineers destined to salvage the continent’s aging pension systems. Today, that idealistic language has been replaced by the utilitarian vocabulary of managing a “burden.”
Strategically, the pact acts as a political pressure valve. By reducing the immediate concentration of migrants in Western Europe, Brussels hopes to blunt the rapid electoral rise of populist right-wing parties. Simultaneously, the framework seeks to introduce demographic diversity into Eastern European nations, which EU leadership has long criticized as being overly homogenous and politically conservative. Over the long term, the naturalization and family reunification of these migrants could fundamentally alter the electoral dynamics in these traditionally conservative regions in favor or left-wing and pro-migration parties.
However, Central and Eastern European populations remain overwhelmingly opposed to forced relocation. Decades of polling show a deep societal preference for maintaining current demographic structures, setting the stage for protracted constitutional and political gridlock between national capitals and Brussels.
Hungary under new leadership
The EU’s political chess board has also shifted significantly with Hungary’s recent transition of power. Former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, long the most fierce opponent of Brussels’ migration quotas, has been succeeded by Prime Minister Péter Magyar.
A report in Euractiv’s newsletter questions “whether some national governments are ready” for the EU Migration Pact, which has “raised questions over whether Brussels will need to crack down on non-compliant capitals.”
In an interview, Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner said they are ready to use “sticks” to make countries like Hungary fall into line.
“There are sticks and carrots in the pact. So, you get funding, you get money, only if you apply the pact,” he said.
In fact, Euractiv is quite open that Magyar may be more than willing to sell out the public on the issue of migrant quotas.
“Péter Magyar, Hungary’s prime minister, once firmly opposed to the EU migration pact, is now keeping his options open. Pressed by the opposition Fidesz to rule out implementation, he sidestepped the question, saying only that ‘there will be no illegal migrants in Hungary’ under a Tisza government,” wrote Euractiv.
This carefully worded distinction leaves the door wide open for the arrival of migrants who are processed “legally” under the parameters of the new EU framework. Unsurprisingly, Commissioner Brunner has lauded the new Hungarian administration’s shift, calling the government “very constructive” and adding, “Our job is to explain the advantages for Hungary and make them visible on a political level.”
Certainly, Brunner was smart enough to not frame the new migration pact as the “suicide of Europe” while trying threaten the new Hungarian government. He can be given that much credit.
END
UK
Exposed: UK Govt Has A ‘Thought Police’ Unit To Control Mass Migration Narrativ
Monday, Jun 15, 2026 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity,
A secretive Home Office propaganda outfit founded by a former MI6 officer is actively working to control narratives around incidents involving migrants and rising tensions, a bombshell report reveals.
The Research, Information and Communications Unit, or RICU, has been exposed advising police on how to portray protesters and intervening in the aftermath of brutal attacks by migrants to prevent statements that might inflame public anger over mass immigration failures.
This comes as fresh confirmation of suspicions raised after the attack on vulnerable special needs man Stephen Ogilvie in Belfast. Sources now confirm the unit’s role in managing family liaison and messaging in such cases. The pattern fits a broader shift where government “nudge” operations once focused on enforcing COVID compliance have pivoted to shielding open borders policies from scrutiny – and are now being hardened into formal crisis powers.
The Daily Mail reports that RICU was set up in 2007 by the late Charles Farr, a former MI6 officer, under the Prevent counter-terrorism banner. It operates from Home Office headquarters and draws on tactics from the old Information Research Department, the post-war propaganda unit used to counter communist influence.
Its methods include planting media stories, deploying undercover operatives, and shaping online conversations in targeted communities.
Recent operations show the unit extending far beyond its original remit. During unrest in Belfast following the stabbing attack on Stephen Ogilvie by Sudanese asylum seeker Hadi Alodid, RICU worked with the Police Service of Northern Ireland’s C3 intelligence unit.
A source described the effort: “They are working with the Police Service of Northern Ireland’s C3 intelligence unit to identify those posting the online ‘calls to protest’ in Belfast and other areas, as well as giving strategic messages to the police to ensure that the protesters were portrayed as unsympathetic thugs, rather than activists, and effecting behavioural change.”
The same source noted RICU’s involvement with family statements in volatile incidents. “RICU made sure that the liaison team dealing with the family were well briefed.” Another observation: “You can see their fingerprints all over the statements released by the families of victims in these volatile situations – they usually have a similar tone.”
This aligns with what was noted right after the Belfast incident. The family statement released in the wake of the attack on Stephen Ogilvie came across as oddly generic and scripted, using placeholder phrasing such as “our loved one” and quickly pivoting from shock to calls for calm plus emphasis on migrants’ contributions rather than raw, unfiltered grief or pointed questions about what had happened. It did not read like the spontaneous words of devastated relatives.
The Mail also notes that RICU was involved with the aftermath of the murder of Henry Nowak by Vickrum Digwa, again providing strategic input to police handling the family.
The interventions align with long-standing criticisms that RICU applies uneven standards. Sir William Shawcross, in his 2023 review of Prevent, observed: “The bar for what RICU includes on Islamism looks to be relatively high, whereas the bar for what is included on the extreme Right-wing is comparably low.”
The unit has flagged mainstream cultural consumption – watching Michael Portillo’s programmes, reading Shakespeare, Chaucer or Milton, or books documenting grooming gang scandals – as potential indicators of far-Right susceptibility. It even linked Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg to sympathetic audiences.
Professor Anthony Glees described the outfit’s position: “The unit that produced this report is called RICU. It’s based in the Home Office but it’s in that kind of shadowy area between what the Home Office does and what the security service MI5 ought to be doing.”
A Home Office spokesman offered the standard line: “RICU provides analysis on extremist use of propaganda and exploitation of the internet to inform the UK’s counter terrorism system. We cannot comment on its operations.”
The unit has pushed for expanded recording of non-crime hate incidents, measures later scrapped after public backlash over their chilling effect on ordinary speech. It has also claimed that discussion of grooming gangs in Pakistani communities is exploited by the far-Right to stir hatred.
This is not isolated activity. Government narrative management operations have multiplied. A 2025 examination detailed how teams such as the National Security and Online Information Team monitor “concerning narratives” on social media and flag material to platforms for removal, particularly content critical of migration policy during periods of unrest.
An elite police unit tracks anti-migrant posts. Officials stated they make “no apologies for flagging to platforms content which is contrary to their own terms of service and which can result in violent disorder on our streets.”
The same infrastructure that once deployed propagandistic fear tactics to drive mass compliance during the COVID period has been repurposed. What began as emergency messaging around a virus has evolved into tools for managing public reaction to the consequences of sustained high immigration and associated crime.
We have also seen the Prevent apparatus targeted firmly at British people, and even children, who have expressed concern about mass migration
END
UK
Starmer To Ban Under-16s From 10 Social Media Apps, Including X, But Not Bluesky
Monday, Jun 15, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Toby Young via DailySceptic.org,
Sir Keir Starmer is set to announce sweeping reforms tomorrow banning under-16s from 10 major social media platforms, including X, but not the Left-wing platform Bluesky.
In addition, he will introduce daily curfews for 16 and 17 year-olds, going further than Australia’s restrictions. The Times has the story:
Teenagers will be banned from certain social media platforms and have their daily usage curbed under sweeping reforms to be announced by Sir Keir Starmer on Sunday.
The ban will go further than the one imposed by Australia in December by targeting technology deemed harmful to children, including chatbots and certain features on gaming apps.
Under-16s in Australia have been banned from using ten platforms: TikTok, Instagram, Threads, Facebook, X, YouTube, Snapchat, Reddit, Twitch and Kick. It is understood that the UK will follow suit by raising the minimum age on social media to 16, from the average of 13, for the same ten sites.
Curfews for older teenagers will be introduced. Daily social media use will be restricted for 16 and 17 year-olds in a move designed to curb unhealthy late-night scrolling habits.
A Government source said: “Keir has been clear we need a game-changer to keep our children — and future generations — safe online.”
The reforms, which come two weeks after a public consultation on potential restrictions closed, will stop short of banning the messaging platform WhatsApp and apps considered to have educational value.
However, the government will go further than Australia and introduce restrictions on romantic or sexual chatbots after several legal cases involving the AI agents mimicking relationships and encouraging children to take their own lives.
Kanishka Narayan, the online safety minister, has said the government — which will also give 16 and 17 year-olds the right to vote — could block conversations between children and strangers on gaming platforms.
The Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Act, which was passed in April, gave ministers the ability to introduce measures to restrict harmful features on online services without needing to pass new laws.
It is not clear when the ban will come into force or how effectively the government will be able to enforce it.
The 10 social media apps under-16s will be banned from are:
- X
- TikTok
- YouTube
- Snapchat
- Twitch
- Kick
- Threads
How could the Government have digested the 116,000 responses to its consultation about restricting social media access for children just two weeks after the consultation closed?
Hard not to agree with Ian Russell, the father of Molly, 14, who took her own life after viewing harmful content online, who has accused Starmer of “playing politics” by rushing out the ban.
Worth reading in full.
END
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//
ISRAEL/USA VS IRAN//FRIDAY NIGHT
Mother Of All ‘Ifs’: Trump Officials Claim Iran Deal Delivers Peace, Inspections & Hormuz Reopening; Iran Says Indeed ‘Close’
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 04:30 PM
Summary
- Araghchi: A deal, if reached, will be signed remotely by both sides and then announced.
- The UAE had agreed to release a total of $10b, more than $3b of which had already been delivered (Reuters).
- Bloomberg latest: US Senior admin officials says Iran deal accomplishes core US objectives and deal reopens Strait of Hormuz; Iran deal guarantees long-term peace in region and includes inspection regime.
- Pakistan PM Sharif: “we can confirm that a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached & Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalize the next steps.”
- Surprise, surprise: Iran FM says sides “have never been closer and pending its finalisation, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content, details to be shared in due course.”
- Trump on Truth Social rejects Iran’s version of MoU terms (below): “What they said, including their weak & pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth.”
- Tehran: “Contrary to what is being circulated by Western media, Iran will not commit to relinquishing control of the Strait of Hormuz.”
- CNN speculates (prematurely, it seems) on Geneva signing of ‘Islamabad Declaration’ as soon as Sunday or next week.
* * *
UAE Ready to Unlock Billions for Iran as US Deal Gets Closer
There’s been much more movement on a final MoU revealed today that previosly. Now Reuters is reporting on potentially unlocked Iranian funds, in order to get a negotiations format back to the direct negotiating table, to hammer out a final peace deal.
The UAE has agreed to unlock billions of dollars for Iran, Reuters reports, citing four sources:
- The UAE had agreed to release a total of $10b, more than $3b of which had already been delivered
- Two other sources with knowledge of the arrangement tell Reuters the move put the total funds involved at $20b
- Reuters could not establish whether the funds earmarked for the transfers belong to the UAE or originate in long-blocked Iranian accounts in the UAE banking system, or elsewhere
- “The UAE’s foreign policy is guided by promoting de-escalation and reducing tensions across the region, while advancing lasting peace and stability, a UAE official tells Reuters. “The UAE supports efforts, including those undertaken by the United States, to protect the peoples of the region from the repercussions of conflict”
Trump Admin Official: Imminent Deal Accomplishes Core US Objectives
Bloomberg is out with some specifics, via an unnamed Trump admin official, providing some further texture to what seems the most ‘hopeful’ (emphasis on the tick marks) development concerning a finalized Memorandum of Understanding to end the war and hash out a final deal…
It remains that there are a healthy dose of ifs in here…
BBG: US Senior admin officials says Iran deal accomplishes core US objectives and deal reopens Strait of Hormuz [Iran has a very different interpretation of this point]; Iran deal guarantees long-term peace in region and includes inspection regime.
- If Iran complies, will be rewarded economically.
- Benefits for Iran accrue if they actually deliver.
- US expects to sign agreement overt next few days.
- US to get enriched material under Iran deal.
- Draft agreement also lifts US blockade and leads to dismantlement of Iran nuclear programme.
- Iranians don’t get anything upon signing agreement.
- Not quite at finish line yet, but very close.
- 80-85% confident a deal gets signed.
- Iran deal is specific about opening Strait and lifting of blockade and moving of enriched material.
- Will be significant sanctions relief based on how Iran performs.
- US seen substantial progress in text of agreement.
- Regional peace agreement is broad.
- Agreement on specificity over destruction and removal of enriched material.
- Confident Israelis will get on board.
- Some Iranians don’t love this deal, but think dissent is quite minimal.
Vice President JD Vance has sought to clarify the US position:
Iran is “not receiving any cash” just for signing a deal, Vice President JD Vance said Friday.
Vance said in a post on X that he was “seeing a lot of fake information about a potential deal.”
“The Iranians are not receiving any cash, and no funds are being released for simply signing a deal or attending a meeting,” he said, adding that the agreement on the table had been structured, “to ensure that the U.S. and its allies’ concerns are prioritized.”
Only if Iran “meets its obligations, then economic benefits will flow to them and to the entire region.”
“This deal has the potential to remake the region and lead to lasting peace,” he said. “The president is going to get us a good outcome, one way or the other.”
As a reminder, here are the 14-points issued by the Iranian side on Friday:
1. An immediate and permanent ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon.
2. A commitment by Washington not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs and to respect its sovereignty.
3. A complete lifting of the maritime blockade within 30 days.
4. A commitment by the United States to withdraw its forces from the vicinity of Iran.
5. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, according to Iranian arrangements.
6. The suspension of sanctions imposed on the sale of oil, petrochemical products, and their derivatives, while enabling Iran full access to the financial resources generated from them.
7. The necessity of presenting reconstruction plans for Iran valued at no less than $300 billion by the United States and its allies.
8. Conducting negotiations within a 60-day period to reach a final agreement that includes nuclear issues, the full lifting of primary and secondary U.S. sanctions, as well as the cancellation of resolutions by the UN Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
9. Iran reaffirms its commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) not to produce nuclear weapons.
10. A U.S. commitment, during the negotiation period, not to increase its forces in the region and not to impose new sanctions on Iran.
11. The release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds within 60 days, with half of this amount made available to Iran before the start of negotiations and after signing the memorandum of understanding.
12. The establishment of a monitoring mechanism to implement the agreement.
13. The approval of the final agreement through a resolution issued by the UN Security Council.
14. Final negotiations will not begin before the release of half of the frozen Iranian funds, the suspension of oil sanctions on Iran, and the lifting of the maritime blockade.
The final agreement shall be limited to the fate of enriched materials, uranium enrichment activities, the lifting of sanctions, and the reconstruction program of the Iranian economy, while excluding any discussion of Iran’s missile program and support for resistance movements from the agenda entirely.
There’s clearly still some seriously daylight between the warring sides, however, so by close of the weekend – or possibly just within the next hours – the reality of the situation is likely to be made known. Via newswires:
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Says Iran’s decision-making bodies are meeting about the memorandum – State TV.
IRAN CIVILIAN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS ACCEPTABLE: US OFFICIAL
END
ISRAEL/USA VS IRAN/SATURDAY
President Trump Says Iran Peace Deal To Be Signed Sunday, Will Open Strait To All
Saturday, Jun 13, 2026 – 01:00 PM
Summary:
- President Trump confirms that he is expecting to sign the US-Iran peace deal tomorrow (Sunday), opening the Strait to all
- Pakistan PM confirms US and Iran have agreed to the final text of the agreement
- IRGC continues to push back against deal
President Trump Says Iran Peace Deal To Be Signed Sunday, Will Open Strait To All
President Trump said a long-awaited deal to end the war in the Middle East is scheduled to be signed on Sunday, paving the way for the opening of the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
In a statement issued through Truth Social, President Trump first took a shot at President Obama:
Barack Hussein Obama’s Deal with Iran, the JCPOA, was an easy, beautiful, smooth road to a Nuclear Weapon, which Iran would have had six years ago, and would have used long before now.
Then explained why his deal is different:
My Agreement with Iran is the exact opposite, A WALL TO NO NUCLEAR WEAPON!
In fact, they no longer want a Nuclear Weapon, nor will they have one, either through purchase, development, or any other form of procurement.
The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL.
Building relationships:
Our relationship with Iran is a much different and better one than previous Administrations have had.
Unlike Obama’s Hundreds of Billions of Dollars in payments to them, including 1.7 Billion Dollars in green, cold cash, no money will exchange hands.
We look forward to working with Iran, and the entire Middle East, long into the future.
About the nuclear dust:
At the appropriate time, when all is calm, we will go in and get the Nuclear Dust, buried deep under the powerful sunken granite mountains, thanks to our beautiful B-2 Bombers and their brilliant pilots, and downblend and destroy it, whether in Iran, or the United States.
…
Hopefully, this process will all work out quickly, easily, and smoothly.
If it doesn’t, we have the ultimate alternative, hopefully never to be used again!
Trump’s statement, however, ran counter to Iran’s foreign ministry which indicated earlier in the day that the deal would not be signed Sunday, according to state media reports.
We shall see…
END
SATURDAY..
Iran Peace Deal Signing Expected Within 24 Hours, Technical Talks To Follow, Pakistan’s Sharif Says
After Friday witnessed a rare moment of agreement between Tehran and Washington saying that indeed a peace deal Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) is indeed ‘very close’ – there’s been more color issued by Pakistan.
The country’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that the United States and Iran have agreed to the final text of the agreement, but that curiously Pakistan is now preparing for an electronic signing expected within the next 24 hours.
Is this going to be history’s first Docusigned peace agreement?
Sharif further indicated this signing will be followed by technical-level talks this upcoming week – but this is definitely where the proverbial devil will be in the details.
Contained within the MoU signing will reportedly be an extension of the April 7 ceasefire by 60 days, during which the Strait of Hormuz would gradually reopen – or we should say that this is at least the very optimistic version of things, given that Tehran still insists that its military is in control of the Strait, which the Pentagon has flatly rejected is a a reality.
So Iran is seeking to hold on tightly to its obvious geographic leverage, while the US is rejecting that this is the case at all.
Another interesting possibly point of contention – but which looks to be merely papered over for now – is the status of the nuclear file, which has long been a major point of fierce contention.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made clear Friday Iran’s understanding that terms dealing with the country’s nuclear program would be finalized in the 60 days after the initial agreement is signed. So in essence, this means Iran could get its wish of pushing nuclear negotiations back, only after the hot conflict has clearly ended. Iran has long sought to separate the issues of a final end to the war from consideration of its nuclear program.
Importantly Araghchi indicated the two sides could extend the 60-day period further, and a yet a lot could go wrong in such an extended interim. Still, it remains that Washington – and certainly the American public – doesn’t have the appetite for an escalation that would lead to a boots-on-the-ground scenario complete with full regime change operations (and this means almost inevitable nation-building).
CNN earlier floated the possibility of peace being firmed up in a formal ceremony held in Geneva. The following Saturday report seems to lend credence to this as an impending scenario:
The foreign ministers of Pakistan and Switzerland expressed hopes of a breakthrough in peace negotiations to end the US war with Iran during a Saturday phone call, according to Islamabad’s Foreign Ministry.
Though no further details were offered, the sides said they hoped the effort would contribute to regional peace and stability.
Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis reportedly agreed to maintain close contact ahead of talks expected to take place prior to an upcoming G7 summit in nearby Evian, France, from June 15-17.
IRGC and Deep Rifts Remain In iran
Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal is again alleging a familiar US narrative – that there are deep rifts within Iran over just how to respond to US deal-making efforts. The question is to what degree the civilian leadership actually holds the power to make final decisions, or also how tight a grip the IRGC holds over this process.
“Iran faces its own political dilemma in selling a deal to hard-liners in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who are steadfastly opposed to giving in to Trump’s demands for limits on its nuclear program, especially without upfront concessions from Washington,” WSJ writes. “But it has absorbed damage during the war and from the U.S. blockade of the Persian Gulf, pushing Tehran toward an agreement.”
In the meantime peace and red lines are still being hotly tested:
U.S. forces shot down multiple Iranian one-way attack drones heading toward the Strait of Hormuz, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Friday, in the latest military flare-up even as Washington and Tehran cite progress in peace talks.
The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the drones had posed a threat to commercial traffic.
President Donald Trump had warned Iran earlier on Friday against firing more drones at ships attempting to transit the Strait, saying Tehran “better get their act together, and FAST!”
Iran’s strategy has been to smell blood in the water and capitalize – sensing a bit of White House panic (the longer this drags on… quagmire being a key dreaded word), and so it has an interest in prolonging the economic pain and global energy shock toward exacting a pound of flesh from the Trump administration (so long as the Islamic Republic itself can survive the stand off).
END
ISRAEL/USA VS IRAN/SUNDAY
Iran Reveals Draft Of Trump-Touted MoU To Be Signed Sunday: $25BN Asset Unfreeze, Enriched Uranium Dilution On The Table
Sunday, Jun 14, 2026 – 10:25 AM
Iran Weighs In on Anticipated MoU Signing Details, Potential Unresolved Issues
Bloomberg and Reuters are reporting Sunday some fresh details on Iran’s version of what the MoU to be signed – which President Trump says will happen today (albeit remotely) will inlcude.
“A draft of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding included diluting highly enriched uranium within Iran and the release of $25b of Iran’s frozen assets, Reuters reports citing a senior Iran official it didn’t identify,” writes Bloomberg in the latest. This includes:
- Final deal to be discussed in the 60 days following agreement by the two sides
- Also includes Iran immediately reopening Hormuz Strait to all commercial vessels and US lifting its naval blockade
- Tehran in draft agrees that will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons
- To maintain the nuclear status quo until final deal is reached, including by not enriching uranium and not expanding nuclear facilities
One potential major complication to the two sides actually signing is what’s happening in the Beirut suburbs, which the Israeli Air Force has just struck for the first time in about a week:
Provocative Israeli military actions previously effectively torpedoed prior Washington-Tehran attempts to get back to the negotiating table. Will the same hold-up happen again?
Pro-Israel supporters and lobbyists in the US have been raging against what they see as a ‘failure’ of a deal, and ‘capitulation’ to Iran on kicking the can on the nuclear issue… not least among them is on display in the following:
The usual caveats which proved all prior ‘deal imminent’ headlines to be premature and wishful thinking still apply. Some latest from Iranian state media according to Al Jazeera:
Iran’s Fars news agency, citing a source close to the negotiating team, is reporting that Iranian officials were discussing the ceasefire points with the Qatari mediators in Tehran.
The report added that the deal is yet to be finalised and “no agreement will definitely be signed at the time Trump announced”.
The comments were made to the agency prior to Israel’s deadly attacks on Lebanon’s southern suburbs today.
Sunday Iran Deal (or rather: MoU Remote Signing) Expected Sunday, per Trump
President Trump said Saturday that an interim U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and wind down the four-month conflict could be signed as soon as Sunday. However, Tehran has pushed back on that timeline, signaling that no final decision has been made while Iranian officials continue to review the terms of a potential memorandum of understanding.
“The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL,” Trump said in a Truth Social post on Saturday, while claiming that Iran “no longer wants a Nuclear weapon.”
The president continued, “At the appropriate time, when all is calm, we will go in and get the Nuclear Dust, buried deep under the powerful sunken granite mountains, thanks to our beautiful B-2 Bombers and their brilliant pilots, and downblend and destroy it, whether in Iran, or the United States.”
Pakistan and Qatar are mediating, with technical talks expected to follow any signing and last up to 60 days. The MOU is structured as a step-by-step framework, meaning the Hormuz maritime chokepoint will reopen first, followed by economic rewards for Iran as conditions are met.
Pakistan, which has served as one of the mediators, is preparing to sign the peace deal electronically, followed by technical-level talks next week, according to Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. He said those talks would last two months and focus on Iran’s nuclear program.
Meanwhile, the Iranian media outlet Fars News Agency reported earlier that Iran has not made a final call on a potential MOU with the U.S. Iranian authorities are still reviewing the political, legal, and technical details, with no final decision announced as of Sunday morning.
The urgency behind securing an MOU to reopen the Hormuz chokepoint is clear: the world is drifting dangerously close toward an energy cliff. Strategic petroleum reserves are being drawn down rapidly around the world to offset the loss of Gulf production, while China’s weakening fuel demand is helping to offset some of the broader supply shock.
Related:
• What If The Strait Of Hormuz Never Fully Reopens
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made clear Friday that Iran understands that terms related to its nuclear program will be finalized within 60 days of the initial agreement being signed. So in essence, this means Iran could get its wish of pushing nuclear negotiations back, only after the hot conflict has clearly ended. Iran has long sought to separate the issues of a final end to the war from consideration of its nuclear program.
Energy markets priced in de-escalation last week, with Brent crude futures sliding as much as 5.1% Friday and European gas dropped as much as 8.4% after Trump canceled planned new strikes on Iran.
IG’s weekend markets are pricing in a 50 bps decline in Brent crude when futures open on Sunday evening.
But throughput traffic through the Hormuz chokepoint remains far below pre-war levels, and a vessel was struck off Oman on Saturday. Normalization could take weeks, if not many months.
Bloomberg noted, “Roughly 140 ships passed through the narrow chokepoint each day before the conflict erupted.”
Here are the latest overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):
US-Iran Deal Progress
• Trump said on Saturday that a deal with Iran is scheduled to be signed on Sunday, claiming the Hormuz Strait will open immediately after signing and that Iran no longer wants nuclear weapons
• Iran contradicted Trump’s timeline, saying it is still reviewing the text and hasn’t announced a final decision, with authorities conducting a detailed assessment of political, legal, and technical dimensions
• Pakistan said on Saturday that an interim deal could be finalized within 24 hours and is preparing for electronic signing immediately after, followed by technical level talks next week
• A senior US official said on Friday there was an 80% or 85% chance an agreement gets signed soon, though some Iranian hardliners still want to kill any breakthrough
Draft Deal Terms
• According to a senior Iran official, the draft memorandum includes diluting highly enriched uranium within Iran and the release of $25 billion of Iran’s frozen assets
• The draft includes Iran immediately reopening the Hormuz Strait to all commercial vessels and the US lifting its naval blockade
• Tehran agrees in the draft that it will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons
• The draft includes a US oil sanctions waiver for Iran
• The final deal will be discussed in the 60 days following agreement by the two sides
• A central element is a step-by-step approach with the Strait of Hormuz reopened followed by Tehran getting economic rewards each time it meets US demands
Regional Tensions
• The Israeli military announced on Sunday it launched strikes on Beirut targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, with Netanyahu’s office saying the strikes were in response to Hezbollah attacks in northern Israel
• When Israel last struck the Beirut suburbs a week ago, Iran responded with attacks
• US Central Command said on Saturday it shot down Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with India’s External Affairs Minister on Saturday after US strikes left three Indian mariners dead, stressing that all commercial vessels should immediately comply with orders from US forces
Nuclear Program Developments
• According to five sources familiar with US intelligence, Iran has sealed off its cache of near-bomb grade uranium and placed explosive mines near entrances to the site in recent weeks, making attempts to remove the uranium far riskier
Financial Arrangements
• The UAE has agreed to unlock billions of dollars for Iran, with four sources telling Reuters the total was $10 billion, more than $3 billion of which had already been delivered, though two other sources put the total at $20 billion
• The UAE denied reports on the Iran funds transfer, specifically denying allegations concerning $3 billion
Diplomatic Activity
• Trump will meet with leaders of France, Qatar, the UAE, Egypt and India at the G7 summit in France, underscoring the outsized role the war in Iran continues to play
Khamenei Burial Plans
• Ali Khamenei, Iran’s former supreme leader killed in US-Israeli air strikes on February 28, is set to be buried at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad on July 9, with public funeral ceremonies in Tehran and Qom in preceding days
Saturday’s Iran Wrap
• President Trump Says Iran Peace Deal To Be Signed Sunday, Will Open Strait To All
Polymarkethttps://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-15&creator=Alastair&height=300Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Yes 43% · No 57%
View full market & trade on Polymarkethttps://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-august-31-2026&creator=Alastair&height=300US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
Yes 69% · No 32%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
“Any deal that kicks the can down the road on the most critical issues and is conditions-based would put the US and Iran exactly where they’ve been: a fragile ceasefire in name only that is routinely tested and prone to violence,” said Becca Wasser, defense lead for Bloomberg Economics.
One can only hope that an MOU, and eventually a credible path toward a real peace deal, is something Tehran actually follows. What was initially sold as a quick war by the Trump administration has now dragged on into its fourth month. Early in the conflict, the administration’s view was that the Hormuz chokepoint would not be sealed shut, yet that is exactly what happened. Since then, the conflict has turned into a giant game of Shahed drone whack-a-mole with the Iranians. The Trump team needs this conflict resolved quickly, not only to prevent another wave of inflationary pressure in energy markets and avert the world from sliding into an energy cliff, but also to repair the political optics ahead of the midterms.
END
SUNDAY AFTERNOON:
US-Iran MoU Deal Signing ‘Hours’ Away As Pezeshkian Touts Acceptable, Positive Results For Iran
Sunday, Jun 14, 2026 – 12:25 PM
Summary
- Iran’s president issues pro-MoU signing statement as Tehran is boasting of great and solid results for its side. There are reports this includes a significant release of billions in its frozen assets in the West.
- White House still suggesting an electronic MoU deal to be signed with Iran on Sunday, which leaves nuclear negotiations to further date, only with commitment that Iran not pursue a nuke.
- Trump: new strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs “should not have happened” and given it was on “a special day when we are so close to a Peace Deal with Iran.
- “A draft of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding included diluting highly enriched uranium within Iran & the release of $25b of Iran’s frozen assets” (Reuters).
- Iranian statements characteristically cautious: Fars News Agency reported earlier that Iran has not made a final call on a potential MOU with the U.S. Iranian authorities are still reviewing the political, legal, and technical details.
* * *
Iran’s President Pezeshkian Cites Solid Results For Iran As MoU Signing Could Be Just Hours Away: Rare Optimism From Both Sides
It seems like a deal will really happen this time… finally… given Tehran is boasting of great and solid results for its side. There are reports this includes a significant release of billions in its frozen assets in the West.
via Fars News:
- Recent diplomatic efforts have yielded positive results.
- Recent developments have shown that no country cares more about Iran’s interests than ourselves
- Even if my personal opinion differs, I consider myself obliged to follow the final decision of the system
- Resolution of the Supreme National Security Council is the basis of action, and whatever is approved and deemed appropriate by the Supreme Leader will be mandatory for all of us.
- I regret the neighboring countries being exposed to the consequences of military actions. Our operation targeted the US bases on the soil of these countries.
- Issues and misunderstandings with Gulf countries are being resolved
- Ties with Gulf region countries are on path to improvement.
- Talks do not mean abandoning principles. Iran won’t bow to any kind of bullying or illegal pressure.
- Media reports on war, negotiations do not necessarily reflect Supreme National Security Council views.
Fox News, citing President Trump, says deal could be signed in Next 2-3 Hours:
Israeli Strike on Beirut Once Again Threatens MoU Signing: Trump says “Let’s Not Blow It”
President Trump on Truth Social has sought to brush back the Israeli Sunday strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, saying this morning’s attack “should not have happened” and given it was on “a special day when we are so close to a Peace Deal with Iran.
He emphasized, “We are very close to a Deal that will bring peace to the region, including to Lebanon, and all sides should stand down.” He warned not just Israel against more attacks, but said Hezbollah must refrain, after the Iran-aligned Shia group sent more projectiles on northern Israel. “This could be the beginning of a long and beautiful peace” he said, and added “let’s not blow it.”
Lebanon’s civil defense agency has indicated that the new attacks on Beirut’s southern suburbs killed at least three people. “The bodies of three martyrs were recovered from under the rubble and six wounded,” the agency announced in a statement.
Iran Weighs In on Anticipated MoU Signing Details, Potential Unresolved Issues
Bloomberg and Reuters are reporting Sunday some fresh details on Iran’s version of what the MoU to be signed – which President Trump says will happen today (albeit remotely) will inlcude.
“A draft of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding included diluting highly enriched uranium within Iran and the release of $25b of Iran’s frozen assets, Reuters reports citing a senior Iran official it didn’t identify,” writes Bloomberg in the latest. This includes:
- Final deal to be discussed in the 60 days following agreement by the two sides
- Also includes Iran immediately reopening Hormuz Strait to all commercial vessels and US lifting its naval blockade
- Tehran in draft agrees that will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons
- To maintain the nuclear status quo until final deal is reached, including by not enriching uranium and not expanding nuclear facilities
One potential major complication to the two sides actually signing is what’s happening in the Beirut suburbs, which the Israeli Air Force has just struck for the first time in about a week:
Provocative Israeli military actions previously effectively torpedoed prior Washington-Tehran attempts to get back to the negotiating table. Will the same hold-up happen again?
Pro-Israel supporters and lobbyists in the US have been raging against what they see as a ‘failure’ of a deal, and ‘capitulation’ to Iran on kicking the can on the nuclear issue… not least among them is on display in the following:
The usual caveats which proved all prior ‘deal imminent’ headlines to be premature and wishful thinking still apply. Some latest from Iranian state media according to Al Jazeera:
Iran’s Fars news agency, citing a source close to the negotiating team, is reporting that Iranian officials were discussing the ceasefire points with the Qatari mediators in Tehran.
The report added that the deal is yet to be finalised and “no agreement will definitely be signed at the time Trump announced”.
The comments were made to the agency prior to Israel’s deadly attacks on Lebanon’s southern suburbs today.
Sunday Iran Deal (or rather: MoU Remote Signing) Expected Sunday, per Trump
President Trump said Saturday that an interim U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and wind down the four-month conflict could be signed as soon as Sunday. However, Tehran has pushed back on that timeline, signaling that no final decision has been made while Iranian officials continue to review the terms of a potential memorandum of understanding.
“The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL,” Trump said in a Truth Social post on Saturday, while claiming that Iran “no longer wants a Nuclear weapon.”
The president continued, “At the appropriate time, when all is calm, we will go in and get the Nuclear Dust, buried deep under the powerful sunken granite mountains, thanks to our beautiful B-2 Bombers and their brilliant pilots, and downblend and destroy it, whether in Iran, or the United States.”
Pakistan and Qatar are mediating, with technical talks expected to follow any signing and last up to 60 days. The MOU is structured as a step-by-step framework, meaning the Hormuz maritime chokepoint will reopen first, followed by economic rewards for Iran as conditions are met.
Pakistan’s Sharif Says Deal Imminent; Iran’s Statements More Cautious
Pakistan, which has served as one of the mediators, is preparing to sign the peace deal electronically, followed by technical-level talks next week, according to Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. He said those talks would last two months and focus on Iran’s nuclear program.
Meanwhile, the Iranian media outlet Fars News Agency reported earlier that Iran has not made a final call on a potential MOU with the U.S. Iranian authorities are still reviewing the political, legal, and technical details, with no final decision announced as of Sunday morning.
The urgency behind securing an MOU to reopen the Hormuz chokepoint is clear: the world is drifting dangerously close toward an energy cliff. Strategic petroleum reserves are being drawn down rapidly around the world to offset the loss of Gulf production, while China’s weakening fuel demand is helping to offset some of the broader supply shock.
Related:
• What If The Strait Of Hormuz Never Fully Reopens
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made clear Friday that Iran understands that terms related to its nuclear program will be finalized within 60 days of the initial agreement being signed. So in essence, this means Iran could get its wish of pushing nuclear negotiations back, only after the hot conflict has clearly ended. Iran has long sought to separate the issues of a final end to the war from consideration of its nuclear program.
Energy markets priced in de-escalation last week, with Brent crude futures sliding as much as 5.1% Friday and European gas dropped as much as 8.4% after Trump canceled planned new strikes on Iran.
IG’s weekend markets are pricing in a 50 bps decline in Brent crude when futures open on Sunday evening.
But throughput traffic through the Hormuz chokepoint remains far below pre-war levels, and a vessel was struck off Oman on Saturday. Normalization could take weeks, if not many months.
Bloomberg noted, “Roughly 140 ships passed through the narrow chokepoint each day before the conflict erupted.”
Here are the latest overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):
US-Iran Deal Progress
• Trump said on Saturday that a deal with Iran is scheduled to be signed on Sunday, claiming the Hormuz Strait will open immediately after signing and that Iran no longer wants nuclear weapons
• Iran contradicted Trump’s timeline, saying it is still reviewing the text and hasn’t announced a final decision, with authorities conducting a detailed assessment of political, legal, and technical dimensions
• Pakistan said on Saturday that an interim deal could be finalized within 24 hours and is preparing for electronic signing immediately after, followed by technical level talks next week
• A senior US official said on Friday there was an 80% or 85% chance an agreement gets signed soon, though some Iranian hardliners still want to kill any breakthrough
Draft Deal Terms
• According to a senior Iran official, the draft memorandum includes diluting highly enriched uranium within Iran and the release of $25 billion of Iran’s frozen assets
• The draft includes Iran immediately reopening the Hormuz Strait to all commercial vessels and the US lifting its naval blockade
• Tehran agrees in the draft that it will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons
• The draft includes a US oil sanctions waiver for Iran
• The final deal will be discussed in the 60 days following agreement by the two sides
• A central element is a step-by-step approach with the Strait of Hormuz reopened followed by Tehran getting economic rewards each time it meets US demands
Regional Tensions
• The Israeli military announced on Sunday it launched strikes on Beirut targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, with Netanyahu’s office saying the strikes were in response to Hezbollah attacks in northern Israel
• When Israel last struck the Beirut suburbs a week ago, Iran responded with attacks
• US Central Command said on Saturday it shot down Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with India’s External Affairs Minister on Saturday after US strikes left three Indian mariners dead, stressing that all commercial vessels should immediately comply with orders from US forces
Nuclear Program Developments
• According to five sources familiar with US intelligence, Iran has sealed off its cache of near-bomb grade uranium and placed explosive mines near entrances to the site in recent weeks, making attempts to remove the uranium far riskier
Financial Arrangements
• The UAE has agreed to unlock billions of dollars for Iran, with four sources telling Reuters the total was $10 billion, more than $3 billion of which had already been delivered, though two other sources put the total at $20 billion
• The UAE denied reports on the Iran funds transfer, specifically denying allegations concerning $3 billion
Diplomatic Activity
• Trump will meet with leaders of France, Qatar, the UAE, Egypt and India at the G7 summit in France, underscoring the outsized role the war in Iran continues to play
Khamenei Burial Plans
• Ali Khamenei, Iran’s former supreme leader killed in US-Israeli air strikes on February 28, is set to be buried at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad on July 9, with public funeral ceremonies in Tehran and Qom in preceding days
Saturday’s Iran Wrap
• President Trump Says Iran Peace Deal To Be Signed Sunday, Will Open Strait To All
Polymarkethttps://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-15&creator=Alastair&height=300Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Yes 43% · No 57%
View full market & trade on Polymarkethttps://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-august-31-2026&creator=Alastair&height=300US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
Yes 69% · No 32%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
“Any deal that kicks the can down the road on the most critical issues and is conditions-based would put the US and Iran exactly where they’ve been: a fragile ceasefire in name only that is routinely tested and prone to violence,” said Becca Wasser, defense lead for Bloomberg Economics.
One can only hope that an MOU, and eventually a credible path toward a real peace deal, is something Tehran actually follows. What was initially sold as a quick war by the Trump administration has now dragged on into its fourth month. Early in the conflict, the administration’s view was that the Hormuz chokepoint would not be sealed shut, yet that is exactly what happened. Since then, the conflict has turned into a giant game of Shahed drone whack-a-mole with the Iranians. The Trump team needs this conflict resolved quickly, not only to prevent another wave of inflationary pressure in energy markets and avert the world from sliding into an energy cliff, but also to repair the political optics ahead of the midterms.
END \
SUNDAY NIGHT: THE DEAL IS FINALIZED
Trump Says Hormuz To Reopen Friday After Signing Of “Great Peace Deal” With Iran
Sunday, Jun 14, 2026 – 06:48 PM
Summary
- Trump Says Hormuz Chokepoint Reopens Friday
- Pakistan PM Confirms Peace Deal, with a signing event in Switzerland next Friday
- Trump Confirms US-Iran Peace Deal “Now Complete” and says “Let The Oil Flow”
- Iran’s president issues pro-MoU signing statement as Tehran is boasting of great and solid results for its side. There are reports this includes a significant release of billions in its frozen assets in the West.
- White House still suggesting an electronic MoU deal to be signed with Iran on Sunday, which leaves nuclear negotiations to further date, only with commitment that Iran not pursue a nuke.
- Trump: new strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs “should not have happened” and given it was on “a special day when we are so close to a Peace Deal with Iran.
- “A draft of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding included diluting highly enriched uranium within Iran & the release of $25b of Iran’s frozen assets” (Reuters).
- Iranian statements characteristically cautious: Fars News Agency reported earlier that Iran has not made a final call on a potential MOU with the U.S. Iranian authorities are still reviewing the political, legal, and technical details.
Polymarkethttps://embed.polymarket.com/market?market=us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-837-641-896-877-363-892-537-597&height=300US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 39% · No 62%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
* * *
Trump Says Hormuz Chokepoint Reopens On Friday
“This Great Deal will bring Peace and Security to the whole Region. Many presidents have tried to make Peace with Iran, and all have failed before me. The Leaders of the Region have, for the first time, found a President who can help them achieve real Peace. With the opening of the Strait upon the signing of the Deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal, oil will flow on both ends again for the Region, and the World!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
The timing of the peace deal is critical. The world was approaching a dangerous energy cliff, with strategic petroleum reserves being quickly drained to offset lost Gulf production and stabilize physical markets. Still, even with a deal in place, energy flows through the strategic maritime chokepoint will not normalize overnight.
It will likely take several months, if not quarters, to clear the backlog, restore shipping confidence, de-risk insurance markets, and bring regional production and export flows back to pre-crisis levels. As for damaged energy assets such as those in Qatar, it’ll take years to get production back to pre-war levels.
Polymarket odds of a permanent US-Iran deal are surging.
Deal Confirmed By Trump, Pakistan PM, Just Ahead Of NY Futures Opening
Just 30 minutes before futures open in New York, President Trump announced on Truth Social that a “Deal” with Iran is now complete.
“Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” Trump said.
Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, also confirmed: “that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED.”
Sharif said, “The official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland.”
Israeli journalist and Iran affairs correspondent/analyst for Israel’s Channel 14 reports that hardliners in Iran, including IRGC forces, will not derail the peace deal.
With futures in New York set to open momentarily, and with Brent and WTI contracts likely to panic-dump while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures catch a bid, crypto is soaring to the moon.
S&P500 Futs up about 1%
WTI Futs tumbling to $81 a barrel level.
Earlier, Jefferies analyst David Zervos noted, “I remain hopeful on the Iran front and, when we see resolution, that oil will drop below $60 and we go back to pricing in cuts, with Fed balance sheet reduction in the spotlight. I am confident we will be bouncing around with 8 handles on SPOOs, and eying 9s in ’27/’28.”
Iran’s President Pezeshkian Cites Solid Results For Iran As MoU Signing Could Be Just Hours Away: Rare Optimism From Both Sides
It seems like a deal will really happen this time… finally… given Tehran is boasting of great and solid results for its side. There are reports this includes a significant release of billions in its frozen assets in the West.
via Fars News:
- Recent diplomatic efforts have yielded positive results.
- Recent developments have shown that no country cares more about Iran’s interests than ourselves
- Even if my personal opinion differs, I consider myself obliged to follow the final decision of the system
- Resolution of the Supreme National Security Council is the basis of action, and whatever is approved and deemed appropriate by the Supreme Leader will be mandatory for all of us.
- I regret the neighboring countries being exposed to the consequences of military actions. Our operation targeted the US bases on the soil of these countries.
- Issues and misunderstandings with Gulf countries are being resolved
- Ties with Gulf region countries are on path to improvement.
- Talks do not mean abandoning principles. Iran won’t bow to any kind of bullying or illegal pressure.
- Media reports on war, negotiations do not necessarily reflect Supreme National Security Council views.
END
SAME STORY: NEWSQUAWK
US and Iran reached an agreement on an interim peace deal – Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Market Open
Sunday, Jun 14, 2026 – 06:21 PM
- US and Iran reached an interim peace deal which would open up the Strait of Hormuz, with the official signing to take place on Friday in Switzerland.
- US President Trump posted on Sunday “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”
- Pakistan’s PM Sharif said, following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the peace deal between the US and the Islamic Republic of Iran has been reached, with the official signing ceremony to take place on Friday, 19th June in Switzerland. Sharif also stated that both sides have declared an immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and that with an agreement now in place, the mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week.
- Looking ahead, highlights include New Zealand Performance of Services Index & Electronic Card Retail Sales, South Korean Trade Data, Japanese Tertiary Industry Activity Index.
IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump posted on Sunday “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”
- Pakistan’s PM Sharif said, following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the peace deal between the US and the Islamic Republic of Iran has been reached, with the official signing ceremony to take place on Friday, 19th June in Switzerland. Sharif also stated that both sides have declared an immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and that with an agreement now in place, the mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week.
- US President Trump previously said an interim deal to end the conflict with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz would be signed on Sunday, despite Iranian state media stating that there was no final decision on an agreement, while Fars News Agency reported that Iran said an agreement would not be reached by Trump’s Sunday timeline.
- US President said earlier that an Iran deal was imminent and he planned to issue a statement soon confirming the US has agreed to a deal with Iran, although Iran so far hasn’t confirmed, according to WSJ. Trump said they are to get nuclear dust when they are ready to go in, and it could be over the next 1-2 months regarding the timing of nuclear removal. Furthermore, he said he or VP Vance would sign the deal electronically and there would be strong inspections on Iran, while sanctions may be lifted depending on Iran’s moves.
- US President Trump urged Israel to stop its operations after Israel bombed Lebanon’s capital of Beirut in retaliation for Hezbollah drone incursions, while he posted that the attack on Beirut should not have happened, particularly on a special day that they are so close to a peace deal with Iran. Trump stated that Israel has the right to defend itself against threats, but the attack it was responding to was very small and meaningless, while he added that nobody was hurt, injured, or killed, and it should not disrupt this important process. Furthermore, he stated “There should be no more attacks by Israel anywhere in Lebanon, but there should also be no more attacks by any other party, including Hezbollah, against Israel.”
- US President Trump criticised Israeli PM Netanyahu following Israel’s bombing of Beirut and was reported to have used expletive language in a conversation with Netanyahu, while he told him not to conduct anymore strikes on Beirut and is to ask Iran not to fire at Israel in response, according to Fox News. There were also separate reports that Israeli PM Netanyahu is seeking an urgent meeting with US President Trump after the upcoming G7, while Trump told Axios that the signing of a deal with Iran was still on track for Sunday.
- US President Trump announced on Friday night that the US military shot down multiple one-way attack drones that were headed towards the Strait of Hormuz in a threat to commercial traffic.
- US President Trump is to meet with the US’s Middle East partners at the G7 summit in France.
- US Secretary of State Rubio defended the US position regarding the Strait of Hormuz and discussed recent developments in a call with India’s External Affairs Minister after India protested regarding US strikes which killed three Indian mariners.
- Iran heavily criticised the strikes on Beirut and its Foreign Ministry said that the country holds the US and Israel responsible for the consequences of regional escalation.
- Iran said the draft US deal includes oil sanctions waiver, nuclear limits and asset release, while Iran reportedly circulated competing versions of the proposed interim agreement with the US.
- Iran Supreme National Security Council Secretary Zolghadr described Lebanon as the lifeblood of Iran’s strategic interests and warned that any violation of Iran’s red lines will not be tolerated. Furthermore, Iranian Supreme Leader’s adviser Velayati warned that ‘zero hour’ is upon us and that rocket launchers are being prepared after Israel’s attack on Beirut.
- Iran suspended all flights to and from its western airports on Sunday, according to Tasnim.
- Qatari mediators flew to Tehran on Sunday morning to help facilitate the finalisation of the US-Iran agreement.
end
MONDAY
OPENING OF THE STRAIT:
I THINK TRUMP IS DISLLUSIONAL
THEY WILL BE BACK AT IT IN 60 DAYS
VP Vance Confirms Hormuz Strait To Reopen ‘Toll Free’, Says ‘Israel Has Seat At Table’
Monday, Jun 15, 2026 – 09:00 AM
Summary:
- Vice President JD Vance Begins Optics Roadshow to Boost Investor Confidence On Deal
- Iran Offers 60-Day Toll-Free Hormuz Transit As 100s Of Ships Await Reopening
VP Vance
Not even 24 hours after President Trump declared a peace deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and just 30 minutes before New York futures opened Sunday evening, the administration already had Vice President JD Vance beginning a media roadshow to calm investor nerves and boost confidence.
Vance began the Monday roadshow on CNBC, providing more details on the U.S.-Iran deal, as uncertainty is the market’s worst fear.
Vance said the U.S.-Iran deal is moving ahead despite what he called MSM “misreporting.”
“The agreement is fundamentally built around a two-step verification process,” Vance told the outlet, adding that Israel will have a seat at the table. Vance also stated that all Iranian government factions are represented in the talks, with several Iranian representatives expected at Friday’s signing ceremony.
On the Hormuz maritime chokepoint, Vance said the strait is already seeing increased traffic and is expected to remain open toll-free over the long term, not just temporarily. He added that Iran would need resources to rebuild, but those resources would not be available without a nuclear deal.
Summary of discussion via CNBC:
Vice President JD Vance on Monday said after the U.S. and Iran struck a preliminary deal that there are “a lot” of details that remain to be ironed out, but he expressed confidence that America has “all the cards” in subsequent talks.
The agreement reached Sunday would extend the U.S.-Iran ceasefire for 60 days and set up a framework for future negotiations about Tehran’s nuclear program and other key issues.
The text of the preliminary deal has yet to be released. Vance, on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Monday morning, said the deal’s two major prongs are reopening the Strait of Hormuz and clinching a long-term commitment that Iran will never develop a nuclear weapon.
He indicated that if Iran abides by the deal’s commitments, it will be rewarded with loosened economic sanctions or other barriers, allowing Tehran “to be reinvited into the world economy.”
Vance is also expected to join CBS Mornings to discuss the U.S.-Iran peace deal. It is likely that Fox Business and other outlets will follow, as the administration must repair any political damage from four months of war with Iran, which created uncertainty on Wall Street and sent the national average for gasoline prices above $4 per gallon for 2.5 months.
Let the roadshow begin…
Iran Offers 60-Day Toll-Free Hormuz Transit As 100s Of Ships Await Reopening
The U.S. and Iran reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday evening, just 30 minutes before New York futures opened, with officials from both countries set to meet in Switzerland on Friday to formally sign the peace deal.
According to Iranian outlet Fars, the U.S.-Iran deal reportedly includes a 60-day toll-free window for vessels. After that period, if a more permanent deal is agreed upon, Tehran may seek to monetize the Hormuz chokepoint by charging commercial vessels for “services” tied to safety, navigation, environmental protection, and insurance.
Traffic on the Strait remains light on Monday morning, with hundreds of tankers waiting for the Hormuz waterway to officially reopen by the end of the week. But LNG tanker Disha did not wait for the formal opening and made a dash to exit the strait early Monday.
There are nearly 300 loaded vessels idling in the Persian Gulf, while a similar number of empty ships are waiting in the Gulf of Oman to return to export terminals. Another 250 ballast vessels inside the Gulf are ready to pick up cargoes if outbound flows resume.
The reopening could release millions of barrels of trapped oil and restart LNG flows, but normalization of energy flows back to pre-war levels could take many months, if not quarters, and for Qatar’s sake, years.
“From the bridge and the engine room where we’re sitting, right now it looks very different to what the headlines may say,” said Angad Banga, CEO of maritime conglomerate The Caravel Group, which owns Fleet Management Limited, one of the world’s largest ship management companies.
Banga told Bloomberg that it has several crews trapped in the Persian Gulf area, adding, “We’ve seen positive signals before, and I think ultimately what matters is what holds.”
Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd, told the outlet, “Shipowners are on a risk spectrum — the Japanese, Koreans and Chinese are less open to high risk, while the Greeks have a different appetite — so we may see some people gearing up.”
Singh noted, “But by and large the rest of the market is still seeking more details and assurance before proceeding.”
Beyond the shipping industry, on Wall Street, UBS economist Arend Kapteyn told clients earlier this morning that “the test will be how quickly and to what extent the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Early indications suggest this may depend on Iran clearing naval mines over an initial 30-day period. But taken at face value, the news should be supportive for risk assets, pushing yields, oil and the US dollar lower, while equities move higher.”
Latest Hormuz trends via Kepler Cheuvreux shipping analyst Axel Styrman:
Daily arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz in 2026
Global trade & capacity trapped/waiting as of 22 May
Daily arrivals, Strait of Hormuz, # of ships per segment
Crude Exports and destination via the Strait of Hormuz
LNG Exports and destination via the Strait of Hormuz
LPG exports and destination via the Strait of Hormuz
Shipping Stocks To Watch
Professional subscribers can read much more about the Hormuz chokepoint on our new Marketdesk.ai portal.
EMND
MONDAY
Trump Details Iran Deal At G7: No Nukes, Conditional Sanctions Relief
by Tyler Durden
Monday, Jun 15, 2026 – 11:54 AM
Summary:
- Iran will not have a nuclear weapon under the new deal.
- The agreement includes strong policing and enforcement powers.
- Trump: Obama’s JCPOA was a horrible deal that led toward a bomb.
- Past U.S. payments to Iran were a failed bribe attempt.
- Sanctions relief will only happen if Iran complies with terms.
- Iran gets no money or relief just for signing the deal.
- A deal has been electronically signed by Iran’s Ghalibaf, according to US officials cited by CNBC
- Opening the strait will take time due to mines, and to expect an increase in traffic in 1-2 weeks
- Details to be released in 24-48 hours
- Trump: Ships starting to move through strait or Hormuz
- Vice President JD Vance Begins Optics Roadshow to Boost Investor Confidence On Deal
- Iran Offers 60-Day Toll-Free Hormuz Transit As 100s Of Ships Await Reopening
Deal Done
CNBC is reporting that a deal between the US and Iran has been electronically signed by Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. According to an unnamed US official, the US-Iran MOU provides for the ‘immediate’ reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, however – while President Trump said earlier that ships were beginning to move, the US official then said that reopening the strait would ‘take time’ due to mines, and that we can expect an increase in strait traffic over the next 1-2 weeks.
Trump addressed reporters and allies at the G7 summit in France on Monday, just hours after a major interim agreement with Iran that includes a 60-day ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and strict limits on Tehran’s nuclear program. Speaking alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, he repeatedly underscored that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon was the central achievement of the deal.
“The main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said. “They fully agreed to that with strong policing powers.”
He then compared it to the Obama-era JCPOA, calling the earlier agreement “a horrible deal for the United States” that had put Iran on “a road to a nuclear weapon” while sending billions of dollars to Tehran. Trump was also sharply critical of past U.S. cash payments to Iran, describing the $1.7 billion withdrawal from banks plus tens of billions in additional spending as a failed attempt to “bribe them to make a deal that didn’t work.”
On the current arrangement, Trump stressed that any sanctions relief would be strictly behavioral and tied to compliance rather than granted simply for signing. He noted improved relations with Iran’s current leadership and reported that the Strait of Hormuz is already partially open, with mines being cleared and commercial shipping set to resume fully by Friday. Markets reacted immediately, with stocks surging and oil prices posting their biggest drop in some time.
Trump also called for an end to fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, saying the long-running conflict “should NOT be tough” to address and that “we have to have a little talk with them.” Less than 24 hours after the Iran developments, he revealed he had already spoken with both President Zelensky and President Putin, describing the conversations as “very good” and expressing optimism that progress could be made to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine, where he noted roughly 25,000 people are dying each month.
Details of the MOU will be released over the next 24-48 hours, though one US official said that the MOU contains ‘possible’ $300 billion in reconstruction funding.
Ghalibaf notably came into public view for the first time in weeks in April to lead the Iranian delegation in talks in Islamabad with US Vice President DJ Vance – marking the highest-level contact between the two foes since before the 1979 Islamic revolution.
Trump
President Trump on Monday claimed on Truth Social that commercial ships loaded with oil are transiting the Strait of Hormuz followinmg an announced deal to end hostilities with Iran.
“Ships are starting to move, many loaded up with Oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz,” he wrote. “They are going along the Southern ‘Highway,’ which is totally safe, secure, and pristine. There are other areas of travel, also!!!”
Keep an eye on it here.
END
ISRAEL TBN/
HEZBOLLAH AND ISRAEL\
Half Of Israelis Agree Deterrence ‘Weakened’ Following Wars In Iran, Lebanon: Poll
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 10:35 PM
Israelis are raising doubts about their government and military’s ability to provide security after more than three months of renewed war against Iran and Lebanon.
According to a Maariv poll released on Friday, 50 percent of Israelis believe their country’s deterrence has declined following the recent escalation with Iran and Lebanon, compared to 28 percent who say it has strengthened, while 22 percent are undecided.
The US and Israel launched a renewed bombing campaign on Iran on February 28. The Islamic Republic retaliated by firing missiles and drones at Israel and US bases in Persian Gulf states until a ceasefire was reached on April 8, largely halting the fighting amid negotiations.
According to the Maariv poll, 49 percent think the Israeli army’s freedom to carry out strikes in Lebanon has decreased after the latest confrontation, versus 30 percent who say it has improved and 21 percent who are unsure.
On 2 March, Hezbollah took advantage of Tel Aviv’s vulnerability from the war with Iran by renewing its own missile and drone attacks on Israel. Hezbollah had refrained from retaliating to thousands of Israeli bombings of Lebanese territory that violated the previous ceasefire reached in November 2024.
Israel responded by intensifying its airstrikes and sending ground troops to occupy additional Lebanese territory. At least 30 Israeli soldiers have since been killed and 1,302 injured, primarily by Hezbollah’s newly introduced FPV drones.
On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to launch an attack on Iran despite US President Donald Trump’s supposed request not to do so.
In an interview with the Financial Times (FT), Trump stated, “I call the shots. I call all the shots. He [Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots.”
However, Netanyahu ordered a strike on Iran just hours after Trump’s comments. Iran responded by striking targets in Israel.
According to the poll, Israelis are divided in their opinion on Netanyahu’s decision to ignore Trump and order the bombing. Around 29 percent said he acted correctly, 36 percent said a stronger strike should have been carried out, and 19 percent preferred to follow the US position.
Meanwhile, 62 percent of poll respondents expressed distrust in Trump, while 21 percent said they trust him regarding Israeli interests in any agreement, and 17 percent said they did not know. A poll published by Israel’s Public Broadcaster (KAN) on 28 April found that a majority of Israelis believe the state has failed to secure victory in any war since October 2023.
According to the survey, 57 percent of respondents said no victory had been achieved, while 28 percent believed success had been reached in at least one arena, and a further 15 percent said they were unsure.
The findings came after more than two years of Israel’s reported genocide of Palestinians in Gaza, during which Tel Aviv waged multiple offensive military campaigns against Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, alongside attacks in Yemen and Syria and a campaign of destruction and displacement in the occupied West Bank.
On Thursday, Trump warned that in the coming hours the US would hit Iran “VERY HARD TONIGHT” and take “total control” of Tehran’s oil and gas industry before reversing course and claiming that a deal with Iran is expected to be “finalized” soon.
END
HEZBOLLAH/ISRAEL
IDF issues evacuation warning for several towns in southern Lebanon
IDF Arabic Spokesperson Col. (res.) Avichay Adraee issued an evacuation warning for several southern Lebanese towns and villages in an X/twitter post on Saturday.
The post instructed residents of Deir al-Zahrani, Al-Namirieh, Al-Sharquieh, Al-Dewayr, Harouf, Habboush, Kfarjoz, Zibdine (Nabatieh), Nabatieh al-Tahta, Nabatieh al-Fawqa, Kfar Rouman, Al-Mahmoudieh, Sajed (Jezzine), Reihan, Aaramta, Kfarchouba, Mlki, Al-Lawiza (Jezzine), Jarjouh, Arab Salim to move north of the Zahrani River for safety as the IDF targets Hezbollah terrorists in the area.
END
HEZBOLLAH/ISRAEL/EARLY SATURDAY
Government reported to restrain IDF action in Lebanon to avoid derailing US-Iran talks
PM’s office denies Kan news report; Israeli strikes in south Lebanon continue as Hezbollah drones target troops, without injuries
By ToI Staff and Emanuel Fabian Follow
Today, 6:37 am
A car lies amidst debris following an Israeli airstrike in the southern port city of Tyre, Friday, June 12, 2026. (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari)
As fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in south Lebanon continues, the government has instructed the Israel Defense Forces to avoid actions that could endanger the emerging deal between the US and Iran, Kan news reported Friday.
The report said the IDF was told to continue with pinpoint operations but to avoid a wider escalation that could jeopardize American efforts to seal an agreement with Tehran to end the war.
The Prime Minister’s Office denied the report as “fake news.”
A senior Trump administration official said Friday the United States was “80 to 85 percent” confident of signing a peace deal with Iran in the coming days. He said the deal would include Lebanon, but that Israel would maintain the right to self-defense against the terror group. Israel has not been a party to the negotiations, and there is concern in Jerusalem that the agreement could tie Israel’s hands.
On Thursday, an IDF official had said the military was poised to launch an offensive against Hezbollah in the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh. It was not clear whether this operation would take place amid the reported new orders.
Nabatieh is located northwest of Beaufort Castle, which the IDF retook late last month after evacuating it 26 years ago. The army official said that depending on the decisions of Israeli leaders, forces could advance into Nabatieh, or alternatively head west and continue operations against the terror group along the Litani River.
Fighting continued Friday, with the Israeli Air Force saying it had struck and destroyed five Hezbollah launchers used to fire rockets at troops in southern Lebanon, as well as a Hezbollah command center and operatives identified near Israeli forces. It published footage of the strikes.
It also said it had recently killed more than 10 Hezbollah field commanders who were managing the fight against IDF troops in southern Lebanon.
Friday saw a suspected Hezbollah drone hit a military zone in northern Israel, close to the border with Lebanon, causing no injuries. Sirens had sounded in several towns in the Western Galilee due to the drone and attempts to shoot it down. Another suspected Hezbollah drone, which triggered sirens in the Galilee Panhandle, was intercepted over an area of southern Lebanon where Israeli troops are operating.
Earlier in the day, two suspected Hezbollah drones struck near Israeli forces operating in southern Lebanon, also causing no injuries or damage. The “suspicious aerial targets” had triggered drone sirens in several communities in the Western Galilee.
Israel has struggled to fend off growing attacks on troops in southern Lebanon and northern Israel by Hezbollah’s first-person view drones, which are largely impervious to jamming technology. The terror group has also fired rockets and other types of UAVs, hitting both military and civilian targets.
The IDF also announced on Friday that Israeli troops had several weeks ago conducted a raid in the southern Lebanon village of Dibbine, located some 12 kilometers (7.4 miles) north of Israel’s border. Dibbine is also north of the IDF’s “forward defense line,” demarcating Israel’s security zone in southern Lebanon.
The military said troops located “significant” weapon depots during the raid. The Israeli Air Force also struck some 50 targets amid the operation, destroying dozens of Hezbollah sites and killing operatives, according to the IDF. The army said the village was used by Hezbollah to advance attacks, including anti-tank missile fire, on troops and Israel.
The current bout of conflict began when Hezbollah started attacking northern Israel with rockets and drones in support of Iran days after the US and Israel launched the war with the Islamic Republic in late February.
An April ceasefire in Lebanon collapsed, and the fighting has continued despite a new conditional truce deal announced last week after Lebanese-Israeli talks in Washington.
Iran insists that Lebanon must be part of any agreement to end the wider Middle East war.
END
HEZBOLLAH/ISRAEL LATER SATURDAY
IDF says over 70 Hezbollah sites hit as troops advance near south Lebanon’s Nabatieh
Lebanese army withdraws from southern city, says soldier seriously injured in Israeli drone strike; seven terror operatives killed earlier this week after emerging from tunnel
By Emanuel Fabian Follow
and AgenciesToday, 8:07 pm
Updated at 9:07 pm
Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Tibnit, June 13, 2026. (Abbas Fakih/AFP)
The Israel Defense Forces on Saturday said it struck over 70 Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon, targeting rocket launchers and buildings allegedly used by the terror group to advance attacks, after the army issued evacuation warnings for over 20 locations.
The military added that it killed several Hezbollah operatives identified in areas of southern Lebanon where troops were operating.
Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) reported airstrikes in several areas covered by the evacuation warnings, including the villages of Rihan and Sujud, located not far from the city of Nabatieh, which is considered to be a Hezbollah stronghold.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese army said one of its soldiers was seriously wounded in an Israeli drone strike in southern Lebanon.
According to the Lebanese Armed Forces, the soldier was first targeted near a hospital in Nabatieh, without being injured.
He was then targeted again on a road between Kfar Roummane and Nabatieh, “resulting in him sustaining serious injuries,” the LAF said.
There was no immediate comment from the IDF.
The Lebanese army withdrew from its positions in the southern town of Kfar Tebnit, close to Nabatieh, as the IDF advanced in the area, according to Lebanese media.
Footage published by Lebanese media shows armored vehicles of the LAF driving away from Kfar Tebnit on the outskirts of Nabatieh.
In a separate statement, the IDF said that seven Hezbollah operatives who were operating out of a tunnel in southern Lebanon were killed in strikes this week.
According to the military, reservists of the 551st Paratroopers Brigade spotted two cells of Hezbollah gunmen emerging from the tunnel, which was used by Hezbollah to store weapons and to carry out attacks.
The operatives were killed in airstrikes, artillery shelling, and by explosive drones, the army said, adding that troops found weapons and equipment near the tunnel afterward.
Separately, the IDF said troops were continuing to scan a massive Hezbollah tunnel system near the Beaufort Castle. In one of the tunnel routes, where several Hezbollah operatives tried to break free several days ago, Israeli forces located maps “illustrating control of the area over the northern [Israel] communities.”
The major tunnel system, which the IDF says was built by Hezbollah with Iranian direct assistance, is to be demolished once troops have finished scanning it.
Additionally, the army said on Saturday that a suspected Hezbollah drone struck near Israeli forces operating in southern Lebanon. No injuries were caused in the incident.
Israel has struggled to fend off growing attacks on troops in southern Lebanon and northern Israel by Hezbollah’s first-person view drones, which are largely impervious to jamming technology. The terror group has also fired rockets and other types of UAVs, hitting both military and civilian targets.
The current bout of conflict began when Hezbollah started attacking northern Israel with rockets and drones in support of Iran days after the US and Israel launched the war with the Islamic Republic in late February.
An April ceasefire in Lebanon collapsed, and the fighting has continued despite a new conditional truce deal announced last week after Lebanese-Israeli talks in Washington.
Thirty IDF soldiers and one Defense Ministry civilian contractor have been killed in southern Lebanon amid fighting against Hezbollah since hostilities escalated amid the Iran war. Two civilians were also killed by Hezbollah rockets, and an Israeli civilian was mistakenly killed in the north by Israeli artillery shelling.
In Lebanon, the Israeli military has said that it has killed over 2,500 Hezbollah operatives, including hundreds of members of the terror group’s elite Radwan Force, since early March.
END
HEZBOLLAH/ISRAEL/SUNDAY
IDF strikes Hezbollah command centers in Beirut’s Dahiyeh, hours before signing of US-Iran deal
Since early Sunday morning, several drones launched by Hezbollah have crossed into Israeli airspace, prompting sirens to be sounded in northern Israel.
Follow us on Googlehttps://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=4064144&url=https://www.jpost.com/IDF strike on a Hezbollah command center located in the Dahiyeh district of Beirut, June 14, 2026. (CREDIT: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJUNE 14, 2026 13:42Updated: JUNE 14, 2026 14:56
The IDF is conducting strikes in the Dahiyeh district of Beirut in response to Hezbollah fire toward Israeli territory, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed on Sunday in a joint statement.
“Israel will not tolerate fire directed at its territory,” the statement said.
The strikes precisely targeted one of Hezbollah’s command centers located within Dahiyeh used by the terror organization to “advance terrorist attacks against the citizens of the State of Israel and IDF soldiers operating in southern Lebanon,” the military added.
Ebrahim Rezaei, an Iranian lawmaker and the military advisor of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said in a post on X/Twitter following the announcement of the strikes that the only way towards any sort of agreement with the United States is to “discipline the Zionist regime.”
“If this rabid dog is not brought under control, it will bite our own feet before the ink on the agreement has even dried,” Rezaei wrote.
Since early Sunday morning, several drones launched by Hezbollah have crossed into Israeli airspace, prompting sirens to be sounded in northern Israel.
In response, several Israeli ministers called on the government to intensify attacks against Hezbollah and Dahiyeh.
‘For every drone, Dahiyeh must tremble,’ Ben-Gvir says
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called on Netanyahu to implement his Dahiyeh doctrine with “determination and force and to demolish buildings in Dahiyeh today” in a post to X, adding that the government had “promised security to the residents of the north, and we must fulfill it!”
In his own X post, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir echoed the sentiment.
“For every drone, a missile. For every violation, fire. For every drone, Dahiyeh must tremble. For every hair on the head of an IDF soldier, a thousand Hezbollah terrorists,” Ben-Gvir wrote. “Against terror, we do not contain, we crush!”
Last week, the Iranian military’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said in a statement published by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-run Fars News Agency that its several hours of attacks had come in response to Israel’s actions against Lebanon.
Iran’s military had further threatened in its statement that should Israel continue to strike in Lebanon, “much more severe and crushing measures will be on the way.”
US-Iran deal set to be signed on Sunday
A deal with Iran is set to be signed on Sunday, and the Strait of Hormuz will open immediately afterward, US President Donald Trump announced in a Saturday Truth Social post.
“The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL,” wrote Trump.
Trump emphasized that the deal was significantly different than that of the Obama administration, which he described as “an easy, beautiful, smooth road to a Nuclear Weapon, which Iran would have had six years ago, and would have used long before now.”
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif added on Saturday that the US and Iran have agreed to a framework for a peace deal to end the months-long conflict in the Middle East, with the final text of the deal reached.
Pakistan is now preparing for an electronic signing expected within the next 24 hours, followed by technical-level talks next week, Sharif added.
END
HEZBOLLAH/ISRAEL/SUNDAY
IDF strikes Hezbollah command centers in Beirut’s Dahiyeh, hours before signing of US-Iran deal
Since early Sunday morning, several drones launched by Hezbollah have crossed into Israeli airspace, prompting sirens to be sounded in northern Israel.
Follow us on Googlehttps://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=4064144&url=https://www.jpost.com/IDF strike on a Hezbollah command center located in the Dahiyeh district of Beirut, June 14, 2026. (CREDIT: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
JUNE 14, 2026 13:42Updated: JUNE 14, 2026 16:35
The IDF is conducting strikes in the Dahiyeh district of Beirut in response to Hezbollah fire toward Israeli territory, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed on Sunday in a joint statement.
“Israel will not tolerate fire directed at its territory,” the statement said.
The strikes precisely targeted one of Hezbollah’s command centers located within Dahiyeh used by the terror organization to “advance terrorist attacks against the citizens of the State of Israel and IDF soldiers operating in southern Lebanon,” the military added.
Israeli media reported that the targeted center was housing Hezbollah’s communication systems chief, while the result of the attack is still not clear.
According to Axios reporter Barak Ravid, the IDF notified CENTCOM shortly before conducting the strike.
Iranian parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf responded to the strikes on Dahiyeh by commenting on the upcoming peace deal with the United States. In a post on X/Twitter, he stated that the strikes indicate that “America either lacks the will to fulfill its commitments or the ability to do so.”
“If you can’t fulfill your commitments, speaking of continuing the path is impossible,” he added.
Ebrahim Rezaei, an Iranian lawmaker and the military advisor of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said in a post on X/Twitter following the announcement of the strikes that the only way towards any sort of agreement with the United States is to “discipline the Zionist regime.”
“If this rabid dog is not brought under control, it will bite our own feet before the ink on the agreement has even dried,” Rezaei wrote.
IDF maintains ‘high alertness and readiness in all arenas’
The IDF is maintaining “high alertness and readiness in all arenas,” IDF Chief of Staff, Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir said during a meeting with Division and Brigade commanders from the military’s Northern Command.
“The entire IDF is determined, alert, ready, and operating with varying intensities in all sectors. Lebanon is our main center of gravity, but we are also preparing for developments in other arenas,” Zamir said.
He also said that the operation in southern Lebanon is leading to “the continued erosion and disintegration of Hezbollah’s southern front,” with the improvements in the security situation being key to determining the “framework of negotiations mediated by the American political echelon and the Lebanese government.”
Since early Sunday morning, several drones launched by Hezbollah have crossed into Israeli airspace, prompting sirens to be sounded in northern Israel.
In response, several Israeli ministers called on the government to intensify attacks against Hezbollah and Dahiyeh.
‘For every drone, Dahiyeh must tremble,’ Ben-Gvir says
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called on Netanyahu to implement his Dahiyeh doctrine with “determination and force and to demolish buildings in Dahiyeh today” in a post to X, adding that the government had “promised security to the residents of the north, and we must fulfill it!”
In his own X post, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir echoed the sentiment.
“For every drone, a missile. For every violation, fire. For every drone, Dahiyeh must tremble. For every hair on the head of an IDF soldier, a thousand Hezbollah terrorists,” Ben-Gvir wrote. “Against terror, we do not contain, we crush!”
Last week, the Iranian military’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said in a statement published by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-run Fars News Agency that its several hours of attacks had come in response to Israel’s actions against Lebanon.
Iran’s military had further threatened in its statement that should Israel continue to strike in Lebanon, “much more severe and crushing measures will be on the way.”
US-Iran deal set to be signed on Sunday
A deal with Iran is set to be signed on Sunday, and the Strait of Hormuz will open immediately afterward, US President Donald Trump announced in a Saturday Truth Social post.
“The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL,” wrote Trump.
Trump emphasized that the deal was significantly different than that of the Obama administration, which he described as “an easy, beautiful, smooth road to a Nuclear Weapon, which Iran would have had six years ago, and would have used long before now.”
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif added on Saturday that the US and Iran have agreed to a framework for a peace deal to end the months-long conflict in the Middle East, with the final text of the deal reached.
Pakistan is now preparing for an electronic signing expected within the next 24 hours, followed by technical-level talks next week, Sharif added.
END
IRAN
Iran said to have mined entrance to bombed nuclear site to deter raid on enriched uranium
Former nuclear official says move raises risk Tehran could claim it can’t retrieve some of the material at Isfahan; US says it downed multiple Iranian drones targeting ships in Hormuz
By ToI StaffToday, 11:25 am
This satellite image from Planet Labs PBC shows rubble before a roof was built over it at Iran’s Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center outside of Isfahan, Iran, on Dec. 7, 2025. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)
Iran has, in recent weeks, deliberately collapsed tunnels and mined entrances to its bombed Isfahan nuclear complex in a bid to stop the US from launching a raid to retrieve the Islamic Republic’s store of highly enriched uranium that is believed to be buried at the site, CNN reported Saturday.
The report, citing five sources familiar with US intelligence, said that it would now be far more difficult and dangerous for anyone, including the Iranians, to retrieve the uranium than it was at the start of the war, when US President Donald Trump mulled a ground operation to seize the nuclear stockpile.
The fate of the enriched stockpile is one of the key issues in an emerging potential deal between Iran and the US to end the war.
A former senior nuclear official told CNN that the Iranian move also raised the risk that Tehran could claim it was unable to retrieve some of the material.
If negotiators “require that Iran bring the entire stockpile to a central location for verification and ultimately to remove or downblend the material,” that would place the onus on Tehran to access and “provide the full inventory” of enriched uranium, Scott Roecker, who headed the National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Nuclear Material Removal from 2017 to 2021, told CNN.
But, “in this scenario, I would worry that Iran would claim that some portion of the HEU was irretrievable,” Roecker said. “We wouldn’t have full confidence that Iran couldn’t retain access to it at some point in the future.”
A US official said Friday that the emerging memorandum of understanding with Iran “leads to” Washington getting Tehran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
“We provide in the agreement that this material would be destroyed on site, and then taken out of the country,” he said.
Iran has repeatedly denied seeking nuclear weapons, but has enriched and stockpiled uranium to near weapons-grade levels while openly seeking to destroy Israel.
The highly enriched uranium is believed to be stored in the tunnel complex at the Isfahan site.
Last month, a senior Israeli military official said if the uranium wasn’t removed, the war could be considered “one big failure.”
Israel and the US launched their campaign against Iran on February 28 in a bid to destabilize the regime and destroy its nuclear and ballistic missile capacities. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes across the region, and its terror proxies in Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon have also carried out attacks.
Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit through which about a fifth of the world’s oil supplies are shipped, while charging tolls for vessels that wanted passage and attacking others that tried to pass.
The US, in response, blockaded Iranian ships and ports to prevent Tehran from shipping any oil itself. The halt in movement through the strait has rattled global economies.
The US military said early Saturday that forces had “downed” several Iranian drones targeting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
“Iran launched multiple one-way attack drones in an attempt to strike commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” US Central Command (CENTCOM), which oversees operations in the region, posted on X.
CENTCOM insisted that the strait “remains open for transit.”
END
USA/IRAN/ISRAEL ETC/NEW DRONE TECHNOLOGY
‘firing a $2 million missile at a $1000 dollar drone is a losing trade”
“Flying Beer Cooler”: Pentagon’s Next Kamikaze Drone Ushers In Era Of Cheap Mass-Produced Airpower
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 10:10 PM
Our focus on the rise of the “war unicorn” theme over the last four months, shaped by technological innovation seen in the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East, has allowed us, in countless notes, to inform readers very early that 2030s warfare has already arrived. In fact, hyperinnovation in Ukraine, now the world’s AI weapons laboratory, is what pulled forward these extremely advanced, low-cost weaponry.
Modern battlefields are now defined by low-cost robotics, whether on the ground, at sea, or in the air, as well as drones, other autonomous systems, and AI-enabled kill chains. Meanwhile, the Department of War’s shift toward funding and procuring from defense startups, rather than solely from big defense primes, thanks to DOGE, has accelerated the U.S.’s ability to spur a boom in the defense universe as President Trump’s broader war economy ramps up, mainly for stockpiling reasons.
Let’s not forget our view in late January, when nearly all of Wall Street was misguided on alleged water and climate threats from data centers, completely missed that with hundreds of billions of dollars in data center buildouts by hyperscalers, now around $800 billion this fiscal year, these facilities had, and still have, a missing layer of air defense against FPVs and fiber-optic one-way attack drones.
We warned at the time:
Then noted:
In fact, it only took two Iranian attacks targeting Gulf-area data centers with Shahed drones to become a major wake-up call to Wall Street and private equity about the urgency of understanding this threat and how to capitalize.
More importantly, it triggered the urgent need for private equity to begin raising capital for war unicorns that will eventually become major suppliers of interceptors, counter-UAS products, and much more, because much of America’s critical infrastructure, data centers, and the list goes on and on, remains entirely exposed to FPVs.
We understand that multiple private equity funds, each with billions of dollars in AUM, have sent personnel to Ukraine to assess the investment landscape across FPV drone, counter-drone, passive acoustic threat detection, and battlefield AI companies. That alone underscores how quickly the “war unicorn” theme is being adopted on Wall Street, one set to surge in the coming quarters.
Going mainstream on Wall Street:
- JPM Call With Axon Reveals Race To Fortify U.S. Data Centers Against Kamikaze Drone Swarms
- Goldman Sits Down With Anduril As ‘War Unicorns’ Reshape Defense Tech
This leaves us with the innovation question: the “evolve or die” moment now confronting America’s military-industrial complex. The focus must shift away from high-cost weapon systems built around titanium, carbon fiber, and decade-long procurement cycles, and back toward what made the U.S. an industrial powerhouse during World War II: the ability to mass-produce low-cost weapons at scale, rapidly, repeatedly, and in volumes that overwhelm foreign adversaries.
Answering the innovation question above, deep inside America’s drone industry is California-based DZYNE Technologies, a company building one-way attack drones from the same material used in beer coolers.
The wings are formed by steam chest molding. That’s the process behind beer coolers, bike helmets, and the packaging your TV arrived in. Hot steam, expanded foam, a mold, done. No autoclaves. No exotic supply chain. No aerospace machinists charging aerospace rates.
“We joke that it’s a flying beer cooler, and honestly, we lean into it,” said CEO Matt McCue. “If your airframe costs almost nothing and pours out of a mold by the thousands, you’ve solved the problem Ukraine has been screaming about for three years.”
That problem is mass: cheap, expendable, attritable mass. Every report from the Black Sea to the Red Sea to the Hormuz chokepoint points to the same conclusion: the side that can afford to lose drones wins. Firing a $2 million missile at a $1,000 drone is a losing trade.
DZYNE’s Blitz drone fits in the standard-issue rucksack. It assembles in under two minutes. A new operator is mission-ready in a couple of hours. Range runs 80 to 150 kilometers, with swappable payloads for surveillance or jamming, or it can be easily converted into a one-way attack drone.
Notice what Blitz is not. It’s not one of those quadcopters filling your X feed from Ukraine. Those are real and they work, and nobody will say otherwise. But they’re one layer of a bigger stack. Multi-rotors burn through batteries just to stay airborne, which makes them deadly in a close fight and spend a lot of energy before the fight gets deep.
A fixed wing gets its lift for free, so Blitz extends the same expendable logic out to 150 kilometers, loiters for hours instead of minutes, hauls heavier payloads, and keeps flying in wind that grounds FPVs. Picture the FPVs owning the last mile while waves of cheap fixed wings seek targets, jam radars, and strike staging areas far behind it. That’s not a rivalry. That’s a kill chain.
Blitzing is a bet that pressure is cheaper than coverage. NFL football fans understand that, and so does every air-defense crew that has watched a million-dollar interceptor chase a cheap Iranian or Russian drone. That brings us to DZYNE’s BlitzBox, a nondescript shipping-container system designed to autonomously launch up to 100 Blitz drones into the air for a coordinated swarming raid.
“Adversaries have spent twenty years planning around our big, fixed, easy-to-find bases. A hundred drones in a box that could be anywhere changes that math overnight…
… BlitzBox looks like every other container out there on any truck, ship, port, or railyard. That’s a feature,” said Ryan Holcomb, DZYNE’s VP of Expendables.
That is exactly the logic Ukraine demonstrated last year when it launched a drone swarm deep inside Russia from a modified shipping container positioned near an airbase, targeting strategic bombers.
A drone made from cheap beer-cooler material directly answers the Trump administration and Pentagon’s call for low-cost, scalable defense war tech. The question now is how many of these drones the Pentagon will stockpile and how quickly these drones can be produced.
END
IRAN//NUCLEAR STUFF
Iran booby traps entrances, collapses tunnels leading to cache of enriched uranium – report
This comes a day after a senior administration official told reporters that the US and Iran are close to a deal requiring Iran to relinquish its uranium, which has been enriched to near-bomb grade.
Satellite image shows a close up view of destroyed buildings at Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, after it was hit by US airstrikes, in Isfahan, Iran, June 22, 2025.(photo credit: MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJUNE 13, 2026 11:56Updated: JUNE 13, 2026 16:36
Iran has escalated efforts to seal off its stockpile of enriched uranium, collapsing tunnels, and placing explosive mines at entrances in recent weeks, CNN reported on Saturday, citing five sources familiar with US intelligence.
This comes a day after a senior administration official told reporters that the US and Iran are close to a deal requiring Iran to relinquish its uranium, which has been enriched to near-bomb grade, to the US.
Reuters also reported on Friday that the emerging US-Iran deal will include the dismantling of the Iranian nuclear program and allow the US to collect the regime’s enriched uranium.
However, details of how the uranium will be extracted have not been made clear.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that retrieving the uranium is one of the US’s priorities in negotiations, although he has claimed that only the US and possibly China have the capability to do so.
US almost launched ground operation to retrieve uranium
A CNN report from Friday stated that the US had originally planned to launch a ground mission into Iran to recover the uranium, but that Trump had paused the operation.
In an interview with 103FM, former defense minister Yoav Gallant said that the US and Israel could and should have combined forces to retrieve the uranium during the war.
“We should have gone and brought the enriched uranium by force in a military operation during the campaign. That would have uprooted the nuclear program from Iran,” he said.
Former head of the National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Nuclear Material Removal, Scott Roecker, expressed concern over reports of heightened fortifications around the uranium.
Roecker told CNN that such fortifications could lead to negotiators requiring Iran to bring the uranium to a central location for verification and removal, which would let Iran provide the inventory of the uranium.
“In this scenario, I would worry that Iran would claim that some portion of the HEU was irretrievable. We wouldn’t have full confidence that Iran couldn’t retain access to it at some point in the future,” CNN quoted Roecker as saying.
END
OPINION/MOU
Op-ed
Iran MOU would cap self-defeating ceasefire for Trump, marks huge problem for Israel
As US president waxes optimistic about chances for a 60-day deal with Tehran, Netanyahu seems unsure of how to react. Spinning this as victory before the elections won’t be easy
By Lazar Berman FollowToday, 2:44 a
Combo photo: US President Donald Trump (AP Photo/Alex Brandon); Pro-government demonstrators in Tehran, after a ceasefire announcement, early on April 8, 2026 (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi); Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Shalev Shalom/Pool)
On Thursday night, Donald Trump did what he has done repeatedly during the 65 days of his two-week ceasefire with Iran that began on April 8: The US president issued new and bombastic threats against the Islamic Republic, only to call off the ostensible attack in the wake of an impending breakthrough in talks.
Trump insisted that the “final points” of an agreement — which were discussed in “great details” — were approved by a range of US allies, including Israel, and that a signing ceremony could take place over the weekend in Europe.
He did not reveal the details of the alleged memorandum of understanding, but according to Axios, it would extend the ceasefire for another two months, during which time the Strait of Hormuz would be fully reopened and a US blockade gradually lifted. Talks would take place on Iran’s nuclear program, but no action would be taken until a second deal is reached.
Worryingly for Israel, the ceasefire would reportedly also include Lebanon, tying the IDF’s hands in its fight against a resurgent Hezbollah, Iran’s most important ally.
Netanyahu at first tried an optimistic approach after speaking with Trump.
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“Although Israel is not a party to the memorandum of understanding,” Netanyahu’s office said Thursday night, “the prime minister expressed his appreciation for President Trump’s commitment that the final agreement reached at the conclusion of the negotiations will include the removal of enriched material, the dismantling of enrichment infrastructure, limitations on missile production, and the cessation of Iran’s support for its terrorist proxies in the region.”
Defense Minister Israel Katz also said on Friday that Israel expects Trump to “uphold… principles concerning missiles and terrorist proxies.”
That is wishful thinking.
Though initially the White House said an explicit goal of the war was to “obliterate Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and production capacity,” and to “sever its support for terrorist proxies,” Trump has all but dropped those demands, seeming to accept Iran’s position that clinching a nuclear deal means giving up on limits on missiles or backing for terror groups.
On the rare occasions the US leader does talk about ballistic missiles or support for proxies, he downplays them. “Look, missiles are bad, but yeah, and they do have to cap it, but this is about they cannot have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said last month.
He refused to say in the same interview that Iran would be stopped from funding proxies, only asserting that they wouldn’t be in a position economically to do so, given the damage that was done to Iran’s energy infrastructure.
In a second attempt to shape discourse around the emerging deal, Netanyahu on Friday gave up any pretense that Iran would have to end its ballistic missile program or dismantle its proxy network. Like Trump, he focused narrowly on the nuclear issue: “As long as I am prime minister of Israel, Iran will not have nuclear weapons. There is complete agreement between President Trump and me on this issue.”
Katz, meanwhile, seemed to effectively acknowledge that Israel expects to keep fighting Iran in the future to stop its nuclear program, and that any deal with the US is not going to do the job.
“Israel must ensure that, in the future as well, we retain the ability to act independently to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons,” he said in a statement. “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and I have instructed the IDF to prepare accordingly.”
It makes perfect sense — for Iran
If an MOU is indeed signed in the coming days — which is still not at all guaranteed — it will not represent any great concession by Iran.
Hormuz will be reopened entirely, as was the case before the war.
Iran and the US will discuss some limits on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for massive sanctions relief, which Tehran was happy to do before the US-Israeli campaign as well. But it won’t have to actually make any nuclear concessions until a more comprehensive second deal is reached.
This makes perfect sense for Iran. It either gets billions of dollars flowing back into its coffers for nuclear limits that won’t be stricter than the 2015 JCPOA deal it agreed to with the Barack Obama administration, or it drags talks with Trump into August, two months before the US midterm elections.
Would Trump resume a military campaign, which would see Iran reimpose a closure on the Strait of Hormuz and possibly destroy energy infrastructure in Gulf Arab countries, driving up prices in the US weeks before an election? Tehran is betting that he wouldn’t.
Failed ceasefire
Either way, Trump’s ceasefire has been a colossal blunder. The US and Israel had been hammering Iran, and instead of pressing their advantage, Trump gave Tehran room to breathe.
What’s worse, he entirely affirmed Iran’s theory of victory — that imposing economic costs on Arab countries and on the US taxpayer will, in turn, drive up the political costs for Trump, forcing him to stop the fight.
Iran also succeeded in rescuing Hezbollah. Before the war, Israel was eliminating Hezbollah fighters across Lebanon, including in Beirut, with no response from the Shiite militia. As part of the ceasefire, Iran managed to get the US to limit Israel’s response to rocket and drone fire on Israeli communities and to deadly attacks on IDF troops.
Trump’s defenders say that he has a responsibility to protect US interests and to look out for the economic interests of American citizens. That is true — but Hormuz has remained effectively closed during Trump’s ceasefire anyway. He and the citizens he represents would be in no worse a position if the war had continued for the last two months, when it could well have either pushed the Islamic Republic to a much better deal for the US, or to finally crack.
As Trump pursues his Iran deal and likely his own political interests, Netanyahu is left in a precarious position regarding his own electoral challenges. On all three major fronts — Gaza, Lebanon and Iran — Israel’s enemies are rehabilitating, protected by a Trump-imposed ceasefire that will not lead to the disarming of any of them.
Netanyahu managed his relationship with Trump well up until the Iran war, but now finds himself outscrambling for information, while countries like Turkey, Pakistan and Gulf states exert a far more decisive influence over US policy.
And while the two leaders met in person every two months in the year leading up to the February campaign against Iran, they haven’t done so since they launched the attacks.
Every week that goes by makes it less likely that Israel will be able to declare victory on any front before the nation heads to the polls. Though Netanyahu is a master politician, he has not yet found a response to his predicament, and it remains unclear what an effective election campaign would even look like if the US-Iran MOU is signed.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Russian Governors Rush To Deny Fuel Crisis As Rationing Spreads
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 09:45 PM
Submitted by Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com
Russia’s authorities and regional governors are racing to assure residents there are no fuel shortages amid an intensified Ukrainian drone campaign at Russian refineries and fuel supply roads.
Ukraine has stepped up attacks this month on key fuel supply routes in its territories occupied by Russia, including Crimea and Mariupol. Several Russian regions have been experiencing fuel shortages as Ukraine hits Russian oil refineries.
Last week, the Moscow Times reported that some gasoline stations in Moscow and regions in northern Russia have started to cap fuel purchases per driver, in a move to prevent panic buying.
Officials are playing down the fuel crisis.
Alexander Drozdenko, governor of the northwestern Leningrad region, said this week that “Supplies are being delivered according to plan, there are no shortages,” as carried by Bloomberg.
Some isolated complaints about fuel shortages “do not reflect the overall situation,” the regional official said.
Governors all across Russia are looking to play down the extent of the crisis.
Meanwhile, earlier this month Russia admitted for the first time that its crude oil production is falling.
Russia’s crude oil production has declined since the beginning of the year as a number of local refineries are under unscheduled repairs and maintenance, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, in the first public acknowledgement from Moscow that its output is flailing.
“We have a number of refineries under unscheduled repairs. However, we are maximizing the use of the export infrastructure,” said Novak, who represents Russia at the OPEC+ meetings and at discussions about the alliance’s output.
Russia is preparing to sharply reduce crude oil exports this month as mounting refinery disruptions, fuel shortages, and Ukraine’s bombing campaign force Moscow to divert more barrels into the domestic market.
Exports from Russia’s western ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk are expected to fall to roughly 1.7 million barrels per day in June from 2.5 million bpd in May, according to Reuters calculations based on preliminary industry and trading data.
end
ROBERT H….
The Electronic Frontier: Field Testing of the Alabuga EMP Architecture
Years ago I wrote about the experiences of the USS destroyer Donald Cook in the Black Sea. Where their entire electronic suite was fried by a Russian Plane. No one seemed to understand that Russia is at least a decade ahead of the world in EMP and in hypersonic weapons. This stems back to a decision that was made after the Soviet Union collapsed to place the scarce resources against the most promising research and abandon the rest.
This week tactical engagements 30 kilometers west of Constantinovka in the settlement of Privet-1 in Ukraine have revealed the deployment of highly advanced directed-energy weapons systems. Ukrainian field reports from the sector indicated that during a defensive engagement, armored units encountered an unidentifiable counter-electronics system that instantaneously disabled and permanently fried the internal electronic architectures, optronics, and guidance suites of forward Western-supplied infantry fighting vehicles and unmanned aerial reconnaissance platforms. Personnel caught within the operational radius of the emission reportedly suffered immediate acute physiological distress, documenting severe localized headaches, disorientation, and intense nausea.
Russian specialists have verified that these incidents constitute active combat field evaluations of next-generation Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) systems. Official documentation released by the Russian Ministry of Defense showcased specialized robotic platforms equipped with high-intensity EMP emitters utilizing directed electromagnetic pulses to remotely detonate forward defensive minefields. The top secret project is being show cased in stages. Do not confuse what is seen with what is in research.
More broadly, intelligence sources confirm that specialized electronic warfare units are actively testing experimental tactical configurations developed under the top-secret “Alabuga” strategic weapons program. The Alabuga architecture is engineered to generate a high-energy electromagnetic pulse capable of instantly neutralizing the localized semiconductor networks of advanced armored vehicles, aircraft, and command infrastructure within a designated radius. Executed without the radioactive fallout associated with conventional nuclear-generated high-altitude EMPs, the successful field integration of these experimental directed-energy platforms marks a major shift toward automated electronic denial systems on the modern battlefield.
The reason the Europeans sent their Ambassadors to the Russian Foreign Ministry this week is to try to slow down the advance in Ukraine Especially given this demonstration of new technology that Europe does not have. Neither does the US or China have this technology.
Now let’s ponder a thought. We have seen at least 2 distinct Oreshnik strikes in Ukraine. In both cases Russia said these were tests as the system is still in development. Although the first version is in serial production with half of dozen already deployed in Belarus. And no doubt newer designs are also in serial production but not admitted to. This is the Russian way. Now, what if a version of Alabuga EMP architecture is incorporated into warheads that Oreshnik carries? Does anyone realize that if this was realized that nuclear weapons would be obsolete? Delivered by unstoppable speed to anywhere in the world in mere minutes.
Now ask why the motherland of ethnic cleansing called Ukraine is worth defending? It was Ukraine that during WWII attempted to cleanse the Ukraine of everyone NOT Ukrainian. Ask Polish people what their ancestors tell of stories from that time or look at the photos from that time when whole villages were slaughtered. Do you know that Zelensky has tried to kill Putin several times? Do you know that Putin is a moderate compared to what comes after him. Russia has its’ own Neocons, have no doubt. The difference is that Putin is reluctant to nuke Kiev because of history. Kiev was the 1st capital of Russia. I seriously doubt that others in Russia will hesitate or care. Personal agendas should not enter into geopolitics. Sadly, today what we see is personal agendas using country hegemony to advance interests.
We would do well to understand that weapon testing in real combat conditions really are a warning to everyone to exercise caution in global affairs. This is Especailly true as global economies struggle amidst the ongoing energy crisis and we witness regional conflicts current and future.
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
Gabbard Drops Receipts Detailing US-Funded Biolabs In Ukraine
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 04:40 PM
Outgoing Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard on Friday declassified a set of internal intelligence slides documenting a long-running US program that has funded a worldwide network of biolabs that handle dangerous pathogens – including dozens in Ukraine.
Gabbard, who is set to leave her post at the ene of this month, said that the documents are “new evidence of longstanding United States government funding for more than 120 biolabs in over 30 countries,” with over 40 of those in Ukraine, adding that this information has been “knowingly withheld from the American people.” She accused US officials, along with Dr. Anthony Fauci and the Biden administration’s national security team, of having “lied to the American people about the existence” of the labs.
“Now, despite the obvious potential for catastrophic global impact that research on dangerous pathogens in biolabs can have, politicians and so-called health professionals like Dr. Fauci, as well as entities within the Biden administration’s national security team, lied repeatedly to the American people about the existence of U.S.-funded and supported biolabs,” Gabbard said, adding “Not only did they lie, they threatened those who attempted to expose the truth.”
The slides, declassified April 23 and released Friday, describe facilities supported under the Defense Department’s Cooperative Threat Reduction program, a post-Cold War effort begun in the 1990s to secure pathogens and weapons materials left over from the Soviet Union. In Ukraine, the program has operated since 2005, investing roughly $200 million to upgrade Ukrainian-run public-health and veterinary labs, according to Pentagon fact sheets. One newly declassified slide reflects a prior intelligence assessment that a veterinary lab in Kharkiv likely held dangerous pathogens and was vulnerable to Russian seizure or damage.
Gabbard tied the release to Executive Order 14292, which President Trump signed in May 2025 to end federal funding of gain-of-function research, and said she had directed the intelligence community to step up collection on the labs. The release is part of a wave of declassifications in her final weeks; an ODNI official has said she is working to release documents on the origins of COVID-19 before her departure.
The existence of the U.S.-funded labs has been public for years: the Pentagon published fact sheets on the program, the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv described it in 2020, and Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland acknowledged Ukraine’s “biological research facilities” in Senate testimony in March 2022 – in what Glenn Greenwald framed at the time as “with palpable pen-twirling discomfort and in halting speech, a glaring contrast to her normally cocky style of speaking in obfuscatory State Department officialese – acknowledged: “uh, Ukraine has, uh, biological research facilities.” Any hope to depict such “facilities” as benign or banal was immediately destroyed by the warning she quickly added: “we are now in fact quite concerned that Russian troops, Russian forces, may be seeking to, uh, gain control of [those labs], so we are working with the Ukrainiahhhns [sic] on how they can prevent any of those research materials from falling into the hands of Russian forces should they approach”
Awkward…
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
ABC anchor Bill Ritter retires with Alzheimer’s; Boston sportscaster Christopher Gasper steps down with prostate cancer; OC, Fla. mayor Jerry Demings halts campaign for governor due to prostate cancer
CA: Health Minister Lela Evans steps back with breast cancer; UK: radio presenter Mollie King takes break after collapse at home; SK: singer Hyolyn will skip festival due to “sudden health emergency”
| Mark Crispin MillerJun 14 |  |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
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UNITED STATES
Cancelations
ABC news anchor announces retirement on-air after shocking Alzheimer’s diagnosis
June 13, 2026
ABC New York news anchor Bill Ritter has announced his retirement after being diagnosed with Alzheimer’s.
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The 76-year-old made the “very personal” announcement during Friday, June 12’s Eyewitness News at 6, telling viewers he was diagnosed after “a series of tests.”
Bill’s diagnosis comes after he reminded viewers that he “cut back a bit” after his 75th birthday. He ended his roles as the 11 p.m. and 5 p.m. newscaster, but now he is stepping away from the anchor desk altogether.
“My goal was to spend more time with my family,” he explained. “Now, a year ago, I became a grandfather, thanks to my oldest daughter. And later this summer, I’ll have a second grandchild, thanks to my son. And in a year from now, my youngest daughter will graduate high school.
“But spending more time with my family has now become even more important, because my life has taken a turn.”
He continued: “After a series of tests, my doctors have told me I have Alzheimer’s. It’s ‘early stage’ Alzheimer’s, and they say the treatments I’m getting are keeping it at bay. For now.”
He added: “But there is no guarantee, because there’s no cure yet for Alzheimer’s. So, unless someone finds an amazing cure, and soon, tonight (Friday) will be the last newscast I anchor.”
Boston Sports Reporter Christopher Gasper Announces Cancer Diagnosis: ‘See You on the Flip Side’
June 2, 2026
Longtime Boston sports reporter Christopher Gasper [48] revealed he will be taking a leave of absence in the wake of a cancer diagnosis. “Some personal news: You won’t be reading, seeing, or hearing me for a bit,” Gasper shared Tuesday, June 2, on social media. “Before last Patriots season, I was diagnosed with prostate cancer. My goal was to cover the full season. I did that, and then re-weighed treatment plans. Recent scans showed additional cancerous areas. Time for surgery.” He added, “My prognosis is encouraging, and, hopefully, I’ll see you on the flip side.” Gasper joined the Boston Globe as a full-time employee in 2001 and has been working in the Globe sports department since 2006. He also cohosts the “Gasper & Murray” radio show on 98.5 the Sports Hub and works as a contributor for NBC Sports Boston.
Researcher’s note – NBCUniversal, the parent company of NBC News, is requiring U.S.-based workers returning to the office to be fully vaccinated [sic], Executive Vice President Adam Miller told employees in an email on Aug. 11: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/amex-walmart-are-companies-mandating-covid-vaccine-employees-rcna11049
Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings diagnosed with cancer, suspends campaign for governor
June 5, 2026
ORANGE COUNTY, Fla. – Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings [67] said Friday that he has been diagnosed with prostate cancer and that he will suspend his campaign for Florida governor in order to receive treatment, calling it a “difficult decision.” Demings revealed the health diagnosis during a press conference moments after he delivered his final State of the County address on Friday morning. He said he learned of the diagnosis on Monday. He shared the news with his family on Thursday, he said. “On Monday of this week, I received some bad news from my doctor, who confirmed that I have prostate cancer, and because of that, I am going to suspend my campaign for governor. I’m going to focus on my health, that will become the priority. I’m only sharing this because I am in this very visible public position. I am sharing about a private matter. I intend to continue running through the finish line of the mayor of Orange County,” he said, joined by his wife, Val Demings, a former U.S. Congresswoman and former Orlando police chief, and family. “In order for me to receive the treatment, I’m going to have to come off the campaign trail. I have to let something go. I can’t continue to do my job as mayor, take care of my family, and run for governor. So, I made a difficult decision.”
Researcher’s note – Orange County Mayor Jerry L. Demings has tested positive for COVID-19, his office stated on Wednesday morning. “Mayor Demings is fully vaccinated [sic] and boosted and is experiencing mild symptoms,” said senior public information officer Despina McLaughlin, in a press release: https://mynews13.com/fl/orlando/coronavirus/2022/01/19/orange-county-mayor-demings-tests-positive-for-covid
CANADA
Newfoundland and Labrador
NL Health Minister Lela Evans reveals breast cancer diagnosis
June 4, 2026
The province’s health minister, Lela Evans, announced late on June 3, 2026, that she has breast cancer. Evans revealed her diagnosis in an interview with CBC News, saying she has known about it for some time and is sharing the news as she steps away from public events to focus on her treatment. While she confirmed she would be stepping back from public events, she did not specify whether she would be stepping away from her cabinet position. Evans currently holds the most portfolios of any provincial minister: Minister for Women and Gender Equality, Mental Health and Addictions, the Minister Responsible for Newfoundland and Labrador Health Services, Labrador Affairs and Indigenous Relations and Reconciliation. Evans said she is hoping for a full recovery, and if that doesn’t happen, it’s a bridge she will cross once she gets there. Despite having only just shared her diagnosis, Evans told reporters following the release of Budget 2026-27 on April 30 that she had found a lump in her breast.
Researcher’s note – Time Will Tell How Effective Moderna Vaccine [sic] is Against COVID-19 in Indigenous NL Communities: Evans: https://vocm.com/2021/02/19/120347/
No age reported.
UNITED KINGDOM
Mollie King Shares That She Was Rushed To A&E After ‘Sudden Collapse’ At Home
June 8, 2026
Radio 1 presenter Mollie King [39] has opened up about the sudden accident that led to her taking a two-week break from the airwaves. On Monday morning, the former Saturdays performer shared that she would be returning to Radio 1 after an accident at her home led to her taking some time off from work. “Many of you have kindly messaged me over the past two weeks asking why I haven’t been on air – thank you so much for checking in!” she wrote on Instagram. “After coming home late from work, I suddenly collapsed unconscious on the bathroom floor at 4am, hitting my head and face as I fell. It was a huge shock and I ended up being rushed to A&E. I keep thinking how grateful I am that I wasn’t on my own and had Stuart [Broad, her fiancé] to bring me round after I fell.” Mollie went on to thank the medical staff who helped her after her accident, before sharing that the incident has been a “real wake-up call that I need to make some time to get my strength back, not just for my own health, but so I can be the best version of myself for my family too”. Mollie confirmed last summer that she’d had to take time off Radio 1 to undergo surgery to treat an undisclosed medical issue, noting at the time that “everything went well and I’m doing much better now”.
SOUTH KOREA
Hyolyn Discharged From Hospital After 9 Days Following Sudden Health Emergency
June 5, 2026
According to a report published on June 5, Hyolyn [35] has regained her condition after receiving treatment and adequate rest during her hospital stay. She was discharged from the hospital on the same day after spending nine days under medical care. The unexpected health issue first became public on May 27, when Hyolyn’s agency, ReH Entertainment, announced that she would be unable to attend the upcoming Fubon Guardians G! POP Music Festival in Taipei, Taiwan. At the time, the agency released an official statement explaining that the singer had encountered unavoidable circumstances that made it impossible for her to participate in the event, which was scheduled for May 30. Hyolyn had originally planned to perform on stage as scheduled. However, after discussions regarding whether she could proceed with the appearance, the company ultimately prioritized the artist’s health and decided to withdraw her from the event. In its statement, ReH Entertainment revealed that Hyolyn had been transported to a hospital following a sudden emergency situation.
Researcher’s note – Singer Hyolyn tests positive for Covid-19. JG Entertainment added that Hyolyn is fully vaccinated [sic]: https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/01/26/entertainment/kpop/covid19-hyorin-kpop/20220126142451211.html
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
So, What Do We Know?
Monday, Jun 15, 2026 – 10:45 AM
By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist At Rabobank
A deal is struck and the parties are reportedly set to sign on Friday of this week. Markets are jubilant after an agreement was confirmed by US, Iranian and Pakistani sources, but not without first being threatened by Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon which prompted a telling-off by Donald Trump on Truth Social where he told everyone “don’t blow it”.
Brent crude is down more than 4% this morning to be dealing around $83.72 at time of writing and a rally in bonds late last week has carried over to this morning with Aussie and Kiwi sovereign curves both seeing notable bull steepening.
US equity futures portend the printing of a healthy green candle when markets open later today, but there’s still a lingering sense that we’re not out of the woods yet. Aside from the Israeli strikes on Hezbollah over the weekend, and the lesson of experience that the IRGC doesn’t need much convincing to return to fighting, we learned this morning that despite Donald Trump’s declaration that the strait is now open the strait will actually remain closed until the official signing occurs on Friday – ostensibly to provide time for mine clearing operations. Needless to say, a week is a long time in Middle East geopolitics.
Nevertheless, markets are rallying on the vibe right now but what is actually in the deal will be the critical points – and there is still plenty of fog of war surrounding terms. So, what do we know?
Firstly, the agreement is not really a ‘deal’ at all, or even a deal to have a deal, but rather a memorandum of understanding staking out a framework to discuss a deal over the next 60 days.
War is supposed to cease on all fronts – including Lebanon, Hormuz is supposed to open and the US blockade lifted within 30 days in a kind of oil-for-oil exchange that we have flagged here many times. Iranian sources are claiming that Hormuz transits will occur under Iranian auspices, whereas the US side is still saying no tolls. Axios reports comments from US sources that sanctions relief will follow the re-opening of Hormuz, but there seems to be disagreement over the release of frozen funds and Iranian sources are claiming reparations of some form up to $300bn in value would be payable. If true, that really would be the full enchilada of TACOs and would see the US agreeing to a set of terms that had it restart bombing only a few weeks ago. On the other hand, it could be the case that the terms are actually much more favorable to the US and that the Iranians are simply trying to save face.
Crucially, there appear to be no guarantees on the nuclear issues aside from a promise from Iran not to seek a nuclear weapon and to engage in talks over the next 60 days. Given that the nuclear program was the entire casus belli in the first place, we still see plenty of scope for this to all fall in a heap. The US midterm elections are 81 days after the expiry of the 60 day negotiating period. Could we see a few more can-kick extensions over that time? Announcing the conclusion of the deal, Donald Trump posted to Truth Social “Ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” Start your engines indeed, because the race is now on to restock the global energy supply chain while we can.
So, at the risk of being a party pooper, could this be one of those instances of buy the rumor sell the fact? Perhaps there is no greater bear indicator than the fact that the New York Knicks just won the NBA playoffs. The last time they did that was in *checks notes* 1973, just before the Yom Kippur oil embargoes became the biggest energy shock in history up to that point. The Knicks basically top-ticked the market back then with one of the deepest bear markets of modern history (down more than 40% peak to trough) following their victory.
That brings us to SpaceX, where the largest IPO in history just raised $75 billion at a hefty valuation last week and minted another $2trillion market cap company after the stock rallied almost 20% in its first day of trading. His 42% ownership stake combined with other holdings now makes Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire, a financial milestone event that feels a bit like the topping out of the Sears Tower as the world’s tallest building in – ahem – 1973.
Personal wealth milestones don’t have as tight a correlation with major market drawdowns as the Skyscraper Curse, but the logic follows a similar pattern: market exuberance causes asset prices to rise, minting a new cohort of billionaires, decabillionaires, centibillionaires or even trillionaires. Then reflexivity kicks in and the popular conception of whether or not it is moral for one person to hold so much wealth leads to policy changes to discourage it. Sentiment then erodes, discounted cash flows get discounted further, and eyewatering valuations start to look more dubious. That’s how we ended up with anti-trust laws in the USA, and how Australia is now seeing capital gains tax rules fiddled with to discourage real estate speculation. A cursory perusal of recent social media posts from prominent Democrats regarding Musk’s personal wealth is instructive in this regard.
That isn’t to say that a correction is imminent. Reversals take time, and a clear catalyst is yet to present itself. Perhaps it lies in the expectations of Fed rate tightening? Or perhaps in the repeated warnings of approaching tank bottom from oil market insiders, and what that might mean for the petrochemical complex, plastics, fertilizers and much of the rest of our hydrocarbon-based 21st century existence as we know it? While there is a sense this morning that a bullet has been dodged and that the “deal” renders the Hormuz black swan a shot duck, to labor the avian metaphor further we really can’t count our chickens until the ships resume transit, factories restore production, and the nuclear issue is settled.
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS//ENERGY COMMENTARIES
Pump Pain Relief? Gas Above $4 May End Soon As U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Sends Oil Lower
Monday, Jun 15, 2026 – 05:45 AM
The national average for U.S. gasoline prices has hovered above the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon level for 76 days, or roughly 2.5 months, as the Gulf energy shock tightened physical markets and forced emergency SPR draws.
But with President Trump declaring late Sunday, just 30 minutes before NY futures opened, that a US-Iran peace deal has been secured, and with WTI and Brent futures tumbling, pressure at the pump could begin to ease in the very near term.
National gasoline prices could slip back below $4 in the coming days or weeks if the crude selloff holds and traders begin pricing in a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Still, normalization of crude energy flows will likely take months, if not longer, to return to pre-war levels.
As of Sunday evening, AAA data show the national average for 87-octane gasoline stands at around $4.074.
Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, wrote on X shortly after Trump announced the peace deal that the national average for gas could fall to $3.75 by July 4.
The U.S. and Iran signaling a deal has been struck. The next few days will be key to see if the agreement sticks, and if traffic begins moving in the Strait. WTI crude down 5%, as more confirmations come in days ahead, national average price of gasoline may continue to fade.
Beyond that, the national average could fall below $3.75/gal by July 4, under a optimistic timeline, but hurricane season could be a major wildcard for the rest of summer- tight global inventories mean it will take months or beyond to fully restore global oil inventories.
The next several weeks will be key- one major slip up could impact greatly prices moving forward. And with so many speedbumps in this situation, it may be foolish to think this problem is now completely over. Time will tell.
Surging gas and diesel prices over the last 2.5 months have added downward pressure on consumers, especially working-class households, who were hit with sticker shock at the pump. This shift in spending patterns is a concerning trend we have meticulously detailed:
- Here’s What Happened Inside Convenience Stores When Gas Hit $4
- Here’s What Happened Inside Gas Stations When Gas Hit $4
- Beer Demand Goes Flat As Even Alcoholics Pull Back With Gas Above $4
- Energy Drinks Become Latest Casualty As Fuel Shock Shifts Consumer Behavior
- Three Factors Leave Salty-Snack Demand Stale
The combination of elevated gas prices and fading tax-refund tailwinds had already begun to expose cracks in the consumer economy, particularly among lower- and middle-income households. That likely served as a warning signal for the Trump administration: resolve the Middle East conflict before worsening consumer sentiment and pain at the pump become much larger political liabilities heading into the midterms.
END
STRAIT OF HORMUZ/
TRUMP IS NUTS IF HE ALLOWS TOLLS AT THE END OF 60 DAYS
Iran Offers 60-Day Toll-Free Hormuz Transit As 100s Of Ships Await Reopening
Monday, Jun 15, 2026 – 07:20 AM
The U.S. and Iran reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday evening, just 30 minutes before New York futures opened, with officials from both countries set to meet in Switzerland on Friday to formally sign the peace deal.
According to Iranian outlet Fars, the U.S.-Iran deal reportedly includes a 60-day toll-free window for vessels. After that period, if a more permanent deal is agreed upon, Tehran may seek to monetize the Hormuz chokepoint by charging commercial vessels for “services” tied to safety, navigation, environmental protection, and insurance.
Traffic on the Strait remains light on Monday morning, with hundreds of tankers waiting for the Hormuz waterway to officially reopen by the end of the week. But LNG tanker Disha did not wait for the formal opening and made a dash to exit the strait early Monday.
There are nearly 300 loaded vessels idling in the Persian Gulf, while a similar number of empty ships are waiting in the Gulf of Oman to return to export terminals. Another 250 ballast vessels inside the Gulf are ready to pick up cargoes if outbound flows resume.
The reopening could release millions of barrels of trapped oil and restart LNG flows, but normalization of energy flows back to pre-war levels could take many months, if not quarters, and for Qatar’s sake, years.
“From the bridge and the engine room where we’re sitting, right now it looks very different to what the headlines may say,” said Angad Banga, CEO of maritime conglomerate The Caravel Group, which owns Fleet Management Limited, one of the world’s largest ship management companies.
Banga told Bloomberg that it has several crews trapped in the Persian Gulf area, adding, “We’ve seen positive signals before, and I think ultimately what matters is what holds.”
Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd, told the outlet, “Shipowners are on a risk spectrum — the Japanese, Koreans and Chinese are less open to high risk, while the Greeks have a different appetite — so we may see some people gearing up.”
Singh noted, “But by and large the rest of the market is still seeking more details and assurance before proceeding.”
Beyond the shipping industry, on Wall Street, UBS economist Arend Kapteyn told clients earlier this morning that “the test will be how quickly and to what extent the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Early indications suggest this may depend on Iran clearing naval mines over an initial 30-day period. But taken at face value, the news should be supportive for risk assets, pushing yields, oil and the US dollar lower, while equities move higher.”
Latest Hormuz trends via Kepler Cheuvreux shipping analyst Axel Styrman:
Daily arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz in 2026
Global trade & capacity trapped/waiting as of 22 May
Daily arrivals, Strait of Hormuz, # of ships per segment
Crude Exports and destination via the Strait of Hormuz
LNG Exports and destination via the Strait of Hormuz
LPG exports and destination via the Strait of Hormuz
Shipping Stocks To Watch
Professional subscribers can read much more about the Hormuz chokepoint on our new Marketdesk.ai portal.
END
U.S.-Iran Deal Doesn’t Mean A Swift Return Of Oil And Gas Flows
Monday, Jun 15, 2026 – 12:25 PM
Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,
- A U.S.-Iran agreement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but shipping and production will not immediately return to normal.
- More than 10 million bpd of Middle Eastern oil production has been shut in, and some fields may take months to restart fully.
- Iraq faces a slower recovery than Saudi Arabia or the UAE because its southern exports depend heavily on access through Basrah.
The U.S.-Iran deal and the potentially imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz do not mean that oil and gas trade will quickly return to its previous levels. The announcement of the deal is just the first step, and it could take months for oil and gas shipments in the region to return to pre-war levels.
Middle Eastern producers have been forced to shut in more than 10 million barrels per day of oil production since the Strait of Hormuz was closed three and a half months ago. Producers will need months to fully ramp up wells to previous output levels, while the status of the Strait of Hormuz – even if it re-opens on Friday as expected – is still unclear.
“We don’t know what open means or what the speed of evacuation of trapped material is going to be,” Daniel Sternoff, senior fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, told AP late on Sunday.
Some producers like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would be quicker to restore output compared to Iraq, for example, which had to curtail the highest proportion of its production due to its inability to move the crude out of its southern fields through Basrah.
“Places like Iraq could be much more challenged because they’ve had a much bigger shut-in, their fields are more difficult,” Alan Gelder, senior vice president of refining, chemicals, and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, said.
“It may well take about a year before they get back,” the expert told AP.
At the end of May, WoodMac’s analysts said that assuming operators choose a measured and controlled ramp-up, the fields affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure could get back to 70% of prior production within three months and to 90% within six months. The last 1 million bpd or so will take considerably longer, according to the energy consultancy.
According to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, “The speed at which supply chains normalise and export flows recover will also play a key role in determining how much of the geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in the market.”
Already, some shipping companies have made it clear that they will wait until the deal is formalized on Friday before attempting to cross the Strait. Even for shipowners who are willing to make the crossing, organizing insurance and other practical issues could further delay the recovery.
The agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could well mark the end of the war between Iran and the U.S., but it marks only the beginning of what will likely be a long road to recovery for the oil and gas industry.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
VENEZUELA/TREN DE ARUGUA:
“Swift And Lethal”: U.S. Southern Command Eliminates Tren De Aragua Kingpin In Venezuela
Saturday, Jun 13, 2026 – 01:25 PM
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth revealed late Friday that U.S. forces, working in coordination with Venezuelan security services, conducted a kinetic strike on a Tren de Aragua compound inside Venezuela, killing the foreign terrorist organization’s leader, Niño Guerrero.
The decapitation strike is part of the Trump administration’s Western Hemisphere defense posturing of purging the Americas of transnational narco-terror networks and should put renewed focus on how TdA-linked gangsters are embedded inside the US, thanks to the Biden-Harris regime’s nation-killing open orders.
“Earlier this week, the @DeptofWar — in full collaboration with Venezuelan security forces — conducted a kinetic strike on a Tren de Aragua (TdA) compound in Venezuela. TdA founder & leader Hector Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, aka “Niño Guerrero,” was confirmed killed during the strike,” Hegseth wrote on X.
He added, “The operation underscores the shared U.S. and Venezuelan commitment to take the fight to narco-terrorists and deny them any safe haven in our hemisphere. We will continue to work closely with security partners, like Venezuela — and counties in the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition (A3C) partners — to take the fight to our enemies.”
Guerrero, 43, had been indicted in New York on racketeering, terrorism, drug smuggling, and related charges. U.S. authorities had offered a $5 million reward for information leading to his arrest. Prosecutors accused him of running TdA like a multinational crime syndicate, including laundering money through crypto, trafficking drugs and weapons, and directing violence across borders.
Federal prosecutors have associated TdA gangsters and affiliates with a sprawling criminal network that includes drug trafficking, firearms trafficking, sex trafficking, kidnapping, robbery, theft, fraud, extortion, and much more.
Related:
Odd move by Democratic lawmakers…
Last month, the Department of Justice said that TdA members and associates had been identified or arrested in Colorado, Tennessee, New York, Florida, Illinois, New Mexico, Washington, Georgia, Nebraska, Texas, and elsewhere.
The U.S. National Counterterrorism Center recently warned that the TdA presence in the U.S. operates as a decentralized transnational gang network, with more autonomous local leaders and fragmented cells after the group expanded beyond Venezuela and invaded the U.S under open borders.
Along with TdA and the removal of the Maduro regime in Venezuela, the U.S. has been escalating the fight against drug cartels in Mexico.
The U.S.-Mexico cartel fight has shifted from drug interdiction to counterterrorism-style operations, with US military and intelligence support helping Mexican special forces map, isolate, and dismantle command and control nodes of cartels before they can regenerate. Reuters previously reported that U.S. officials wanted Special Operations troops or CIA officers to accompany Mexican soldiers on raids against suspected fentanyl labs, while a newly formed U.S. military-led Joint Interagency Task Force-Counter Cartel reportedly aided Mexico’s hunt for CJNG boss El Mencho through intelligence and target-package support.
Beyond purging FTOs and drug cartels from the Americas, the Trump administration has also played a crucial part in shifting the political landscape in countries from far-left leaders and unhinged socialists to center or, in Argentina’s case, libertarian-right.
Related:
Trump’s emerging strategy is clear: clean up the Western Hemisphere, purge cartels and socialists and Marxists, and ensure China does not gain ground.
END
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS SATURDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1601 UP 0.0034
USA/ YEN 160.14 DOWN 0.060 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3423 UP 0.0022 OR 22 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3972 DOWN 0.0014 //CDN DOLLAR UP 14 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 64.96 PTS OR 1.61%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 110.40 PTS OR 0.45%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.66%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 110.40 PTS OR 0.45%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 64.96 OR 1.61%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.66%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 3,516.96 PTS OR 5.33%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4341.00
silver:$70.52
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 46.28 PLUS 2 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 72.71 ROUBLE// DOWN 0 ROUBLE AND 22 BASIS PTS. WOULD YOU BELIEVE THAT THE RUSSIAN ROUBLE AND THE ISRAEL SHEKEL ARE THE STRONGEST CURRENCIES BESIDES THE DOLLAR .
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.7838 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.4912 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.402 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.046 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early MONDAY MORNING: 99.31 DOWN 18 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.317% DOWN 7 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.575% DOWN 5 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.756 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.378 DOWN 5 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.674 DOWN 6 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.9537 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1615 UP 0.0051 OR 51 basis points
USA/Japan: 160.11 DOWN 0.0.082 OR YEN IS UP 8 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.8105 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.523 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 11 BASIS pts to 1.3974
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The USA/Yuan CNY UP TO 6.7571// ON SHORE ..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.7574
TURKISH LIRA: 46.28 PLUS 1 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 in basis points from FRIDAY at 4.445.% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.953 DOWN 2 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.039 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4351.00
SILVER AT 10;00: 71.07
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM///
London: CLOSED DOWN 41.10 PTS OR 0,39%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 258 OR 1.05%
FRANCE: CLOSED UP 33.14 PTS PTS PTS OR 0.40%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 217.60 PTS OR 1.43 %
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 338.74 PTS OR 0.68%
WTI Oil price 80.29 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 83.23 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 72.45 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 4 / 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.368 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.998 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1593 UP 0.0028 OR 28 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3416 UP 0.0016 OR 16 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.8259 up 1 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.527 DOWN 5 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.574 DOWN 4 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.748 DOWN 5 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 160.315 UP 0.118 OR YEN DOWN 12 BASIS PTS//GETTING CLOSER TO 160.00
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3985 UP 0.0001 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 81.40
Brent OIL: 83.69
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS pts to 4.461
USA 30 yr bond yield: UP 0 PTS to 4.971%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.062 DOWN 2 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.407 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.036 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.41 DOWN 8 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 46.28 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 71.93 DOWN 0 AND 8/100 roubles //
GOLD $4317.00 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 70.08 3;30 PM)
XX
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 468.77 OR 0.92%
NASDAQ 100 UP 907.97 PTS OR 3.06%
VOLATILITY INDEX 16.02 DOWN 1.66 PTS OR 9.39%
GLD: $ 396.55 UP 10.0-1 PTS OR 2.69%
SLV/ $63.47 PTS UP 2.15 OR OR 3.56%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 337.79 PTS 0.97%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Big Tech, Bullion, & Bitcoin Bid As Oil Sinks On Hormuz Hopes; AI Dispersion Grows
WRAP UP;
Stocks rally and crude plummets as US/Iran agree on MoU – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Monday, Jun 15, 2026 – 04:35 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries up, Crude down, Dollar down, Gold up
- REAR VIEW: US and Iran agree on MoU, albeit with some contradicting reports around Lebanon; NVDA to raise USD 25bln from bond offering; NY Fed Survey disappoints, NAHB falls more than expected, US IP misses forecasts; Fitch affirms China at A; FOX to acquire ROKU
- COMING UP: Data: Chinese Unemployment Rate (May), Retail Sales (May), Industrial Production (May), Italian Inflation Final (May), EU/German ZEW (Jun), US ADP Weekly, Import/Export Prices (May), Housing Starts (May), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2)
Events: RBA Policy Announcement, BoJ Policy Announcement. Speakers: RBA’s Bullock; BoJ’s Uchida; ECB’s Lane. Supply: UK, Germany, US - WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include Fed, BoJ, RBA, BoE, SNB, US Retail Sales, Japan CPI, UK Inflation and UK Jobs. Click here for the full report.
- WEEKLY US EARNINGS ESTIMATES: PGR, ACN, KR the highlights in an otherwise thin docket. Click here for the full report.
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- 1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
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MARKET WRAP
US indices closed the first session of the week firmly in the green, albeit slightly off intraday highs, as risk sentiment took its cue from the US and Iran reaching a peace agreement that is expected to be formally signed in Switzerland on Friday. While full details of the agreement have yet to be released, reports suggest the US will lift its naval blockade while Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The positive developments surrounding the US-Iran agreement drove a broad risk-on move across asset classes. Crude prices suffered hefty losses as traders removed much of the geopolitical risk premium embedded during the conflict, while the Dollar weakened against most major peers. Currency-specific newsflow was relatively sparse, although the Swiss Franc also found support after voters rejected a proposal to cap the country’s population at 10mln, avoiding a potential source of tension with the EU.
Precious metals were firmer, while Treasuries also gained, with the front end outperforming as lower oil prices helped ease inflation concerns. However, Treasury gains were pared throughout the session, with Nvidia’s (NVDA) USD 25bln bond offering weighing on the market after the deal was upsized from an initially proposed USD 20bln following roughly USD 85bln of investor demand.
Sector performance reflected the improved risk backdrop. Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary led the gains, while Energy was the clear laggard amid the sharp decline in oil prices.
On the data front, the NY Fed Empire Manufacturing survey, Industrial Production, and the NAHB Housing Market Index all came in softer than expected, although the releases generated little market reaction.
Attention now turns to Wednesday’s FOMC decision. Rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, but focus will centre on Chair Warsh’s first press conference as Fed Chair. Markets will also closely watch whether the Committee removes its easing bias from the statement, revises inflation forecasts higher, lowers unemployment projections, and delivers a more hawkish set of dot plots.
US
NY FED SURVEY: Business activity in New York State increased modestly in June, with the headline general business conditions index falling to 5.7 from 19.6, below the 13.20 forecast, which Pantheon Macroeconomics says “bolsters the case for thinking the manufacturing cycle is beginning to turn down”. New orders eased to 3.5 from 22.7, and shipments slowed to 8.6 from 18.9, while unfilled orders edged up to 5.0 from 4.9. Delivery times continued to lengthen, albeit at a slower pace, with the index falling to 11.9 from 20.4, while supply availability worsened further to -13.9 from -10.7. Employment metrics were mixed, with the number of employees index rising to 9.6 from 8.3, although the average workweek index eased to 5.1 from 11.5. Price pressures remained elevated, with prices paid little changed at 61.0 (prev. 62.6) and prices received at 31.4 (prev. 31.8). Pantheon Macroeconomics writes that “The prices received index was essentially unchanged in June, consistent with prices for CPI core goods, excluding used autos, rising at a near-4% annualized pace over coming months. But with energy prices down decisively over the last month, the pace of price rises looks set to moderate soon, enabling the FOMC to look through the current momentum.” Looking ahead, firms remained fairly optimistic, although the future business conditions index slipped to 30.1 from 33.5. Expectations for new orders and shipments improved to 32.5 (prev. 30.1) and 32.2 (prev. 26.6), respectively, while firms also anticipated stronger inventories, longer delivery times, and continued employment growth. Future prices paid eased to 59.4 from 62.1, but future prices received rose sharply to 51.6 from 43.6, the highest since 2022.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: US industrial production rose 0.1% M/M in May (exp. 0.2%, prev. 0.7%), while manufacturing output was unchanged (prev. 0.6%), indicating activity grew at a slower pace than expected. However, both series saw sizeable upward revisions to prior months, with industrial production revised up by a net 0.4ppts and manufacturing by 0.5ppts. Mining output rose 1.3%, offsetting a 0.4% decline in utilities production, while capacity utilisation edged up to 76.2% from 76.1%, in line with expectations. On an annual basis, industrial production accelerated to 1.7% Y/Y from 1.4%, while manufacturing production rose 1.4% Y/Y from 1.3%. Within manufacturing, durable goods output increased 0.8%, led by gains in wood products, nonmetallic minerals, primary metals and motor vehicles, although this was offset by a 0.9% decline in nondurable goods production. High-tech manufacturing remained a key source of strength, with computer and electronic products output rising 0.9% M/M and 10.3% Y/Y. The Fed release noted business equipment output rose 0.6%, construction supplies increased 1.1%, and materials production gained 0.3%. Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that strength in computers and electronics is continuing to support overall manufacturing output, likely reflecting the benefits of earlier CHIPS Act-related investment, but argues that recent production gains have also been supported by precautionary inventory-building amid supply chain concerns. Pantheon expects production growth to soften in the months ahead as inventory accumulation fades and higher manufactured goods prices weigh on demand.
NAHB: The NAHB Housing Market Index moved lower in June to 35 despite expectations to remain at 37. The drop came from current sales conditions falling two points to 38. Meanwhile, sales expectations in the next six months and the traffic of prospective buyers both held steady at 45 and 25, respectively. 35% of builders cut prices in June (prev. 32.0%) at an average price reduction of 6% in June (prev. 6.0%). The use of sales incentives was 62% (prev. 61%), marking the 15th consecutive month of being over 60%. Oxford Economics writes that “soft homebuilder sentiment is consistent with our view that housing starts will mostly move sideways for the next couple of quarters before starting to edge up slightly around year-end.” The firm needs to see builders work off more of their unsold inventory before we see a notable pickup in single-family housing starts.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (M6) SETTLE 4+ TICKS HIGHER AT 109-21
Yield curve bull steepens as front-end outperforms on lower oil prices following US-Iran MoU. At settlement, 2-year -2.7bps at 4.060%,3 -year -3.2bps at 4.104%, 5-year -3.0bps at 4.181%, 7-year -2.5bps at 4.315%, 10-year -1.8bps at 4.465%, 20-year -1.1bps at 4.969%, 30-year -0.4bps at 4.967%.
THE DAY: Treasuries bull steepened on Monday amid a sharp decline in crude prices after the US and Iran officially agreed to end the conflict, remove the US naval blockade, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
An official signing ceremony is expected to take place in Switzerland on Friday, although the memorandum of understanding has already been signed virtually by US VP Vance, President Trump, and Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf. The agreement helped send crude prices sharply lower, with markets beginning to remove some of the geopolitical risk premium that had been embedded in energy markets.
However, details surrounding the agreement remain somewhat unclear. Reports have differed on whether the memorandum includes Lebanon, with Israel stating its forces will not withdraw from southern Lebanon at this stage. Trump said the agreement includes a ceasefire on all fronts, while a senior US official suggested the deal does not require an Israeli withdrawal, although Israel retains the right to defend itself. Meanwhile, Iranian news agency Fars denied reports that Lebanon had been excluded from the agreement.
Officials have also suggested the Strait of Hormuz could reopen quickly, although shipping companies appear cautious about returning immediately. As a result, markets continue to assess whether oil prices can remain materially lower if the resumption of energy flows proves slower than expected. Ongoing nuclear negotiations with Iran and uncertainty surrounding the Israel-Lebanon situation also continue to cloud the outlook.
Treasuries initially rallied at the reopen, tracking the sharp decline in crude prices, but gradually pared those gains throughout the session to settle modestly firmer, with the front-end continuing to outperform. The price action suggests investors remain somewhat cautious about fully unwinding inflation risk premia until there is greater clarity surrounding energy markets and the broader regional outlook.
Also contributing to the paring of Treasury gains was Nvidia’s (NVDA) USD 25bln bond offering, upsized from an initially proposed USD 20bln after attracting roughly USD 85bln of demand. Nvidia is issuing debt across maturities ranging from 2 years to 30 years, with reports suggesting the 10-year tranche will price around 75bps above comparable Treasuries. The sizeable corporate supply added some pressure to the Treasury market.
On the data front, the NY Fed Empire Manufacturing survey, Industrial Production, and the NAHB Housing Market Index all came in softer than expected, although the releases generated little market reaction. Attention now turns to Wednesday’s FOMC decision, where rates are widely expected to remain unchanged. Focus will centre on whether the Committee removes its easing bias from the statement, potential upward revisions to inflation forecasts, lower unemployment projections, and a more hawkish set of dot plots. However, the key event risk will likely be Chair Warsh’s press conference, where investors will be looking for greater clarity on his policy views and any potential changes he may seek to implement at the Federal Reserve.
SUPPLY
Notes
- US Treasury to sell USD 13bln of 20-year bonds on June 16th, to settle June 22nd; to sell USD 24bln of 5-year TIPS on June 18th, to settle June 30th
Bills
- US sold 3-month bills at a high rate of 3.64%, B/C 2.47x; sold 6-month bills at a high rate of 3.680%, B/C 2.76x.
- US to sell USD 65bln of 6-week bills on June 16th, to settle on June 18th
STIRS/OPERATIONS
- Fed Pricing: 18.7bps (prev. Dec 24bps)
- EFFR at 3.62% (prev. 3.62%), volumes at USD 110bln (prev. USD 106bln) on June 12th
- SOFR at 3.65% (prev. 3.60%), volumes at USD 3.059tln (prev. USD 3.061tln) on June 12th
- NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.58bln (prev. 0.45bln) across 8 counterparties (prev. 6) on June 15th
CRUDE
WTI (N6) SETTLES USD 4.13 LOWER AT 80.75/BBL; BRENT (Q6) SETTLES USD 4.16 LOWER AT 83.17/BBL
The crude complex saw steep losses as over the weekend the US and Iran reached a framework peace agreement. While the full document itself hasnt been released yet, officials have been revealing some details, but there are some discrepancies. Nonetheless, the MoU has been signed virtually by US President Trump, VP Vance and Iran Parliamentary Speaker Ghalbaf, but an official signing will take place in Switzerland on Friday. Trump made it clear on the announcement that the US will lift its naval blockade, whilst the Iranians will reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As such, WTI and Brent gapped lower at the open and continued to trundle lower to troughs of USD 79.70/bbl and 82.40, respectively, amid the positive Middle East developments. Whilst there were still some discrepancies in reporting from the two sides, participants await both countries signing on the dotted line and full details, which will slowly bring oil flows back to pre-war levels, albeit not immediately. Away from the Middle East, traders also await the FOMC on Wednesday and Chair Warsh’s first policy meeting.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +1.65% at 7,554, NDX +3.06% at 30,544, DJI +0.92% at 51,676, RUT +0.72% at 2,965
SECTORS: Technology +3.39%, Communication Services +2.42%, Consumer Discretionary +1.91%, Industrials +1.36%, Materials +0.84%, Utilities +0.47%, Financials +0.35%, Consumer Staples -0.53%, Health -0.70%, Real Estate -0.90%, Energy -3.58%
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.82% at 6,238, Dax 40 +1.09% at 24,903, FTSE 100 -0.39% at 10,431, CAC 40 +0.40% at 8,384, FTSE MIB +0.66% at 51,836, IBEX 35 +1.43% at 19,032, PSI -0.52% at 9,046, SMI +0.11% at 13,723, AEX -0.52% at 1,076.
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Elon Musk said on Sunday that SpaceX (SPCX) could bring in USD 1tln in revenue by 2030.
- Kazakhstan and Firebird signed a USD 10bln AI project deal with Nvidia (NVDA) chips; NVDA plans to raise USD 25bln from a high-grade bond sale.
- TripAdvisor (TRIP) to sell TheFork to American Express (AXP) for USD 700mln in cash.
- Fox Corp (FOXA) agreed to acquire Roku (ROKU) for USD 160/shr in cash & stock.
- US DoJ approves Paramount’s (PSKY) USD 111bln takeover of Warner Bros Discovery (WBD).
- Woodside Energy (WDS) said no discussions are being held and denies proposals involving Exxon Mobil (XOM).
- Ferrari (RACE) upgraded at Morgan Stanley to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Equal Weight’.
- Datadog (DDOG) upgraded at Truist to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’.
- Broadcom (AVGO) reportedly backs a USD 35bln AI chip order to boost demand, with plans to finance over 20 gigawatts of compute capacity, potentially impacting credit through chip lease financial backstop, reports The Information.
FX
The Dollar was weaker on Monday as positive developments in the Middle East improved risk sentiment after the US and Iran reached a framework peace agreement that is expected to be formally signed in Switzerland on Friday. While full details have yet to be released, reports suggest the US will lift its naval blockade while Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As expected, developments surrounding the US-Iran agreement dominated FX trade and broader market sentiment, with participants also beginning to look ahead to Wednesday’s FOMC decision. While rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, attention will focus on Chair Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair, with some desks expecting the Committee to remove the easing bias from its policy statement.
Elsewhere, the NY Fed Empire Manufacturing survey disappointed, with the headline index falling to 5.7 from 19.6, well below the 13.2 consensus. The underlying details were mixed, with new orders and shipments declining sharply while prices paid eased.
G10 currencies broadly advanced against the Dollar on the improved risk backdrop. The Yen pared earlier gains ahead of the Bank of Japan decision overnight. While a Reuters survey showed 66 of 70 economists expect the BoJ to raise rates to 1.0% this month, market participants remain focused on the accompanying guidance and the pace of any further policy normalisation. Money markets currently imply around a 90% probability of a rate increase.
The commodity-linked currencies underperformed, with CAD and NOK among the laggards as crude prices tumbled following the US-Iran agreement.
In contrast, AUD, CHF, EUR and GBP were among the strongest performers. The Aussie was supported by the broader risk-on backdrop ahead of the RBA decision overnight, where policymakers are expected to leave rates unchanged. The Pound was also supported by the risk tone ahead of key risk events this week. UK CPI is due on Wednesday, ahead of Thursday’s BoE confab, and the Makerfield by-election results Thursday evening. The Swissy was supported after the nation voted to reject a proposal to cap its population at 10mln, avoiding issues with the EU while the Dollar weakness also supported.
USA DATA RELEASES
US Industrial Production Disappoints In May
Monday, Jun 15, 2026 – 09:20 AM
Despite strong ISM Manufacturing data, US Industrial Production disappointed in May, rising just 0.1% MoM (vs +0.3% exp), but April’s print was revised up to +0.9% MoM. Put together, that lifted the YoY rise in industrial production to +1.67% – its highest since Nov 2025…
Manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts was also flat in May, according to the Fed report.
Mining output, which includes energy extraction, increased 1.3%.
Utilities output fell.
US Manufacturing production was unchanged in May (below the 0.3% rise expected), but thanks to an upward revision, the YoY rise was +1.4%, the highest since Nov 2025…
May’s flat-line comes after four months of gains to start the year.
The data showed a split between durable goods manufacturing, which continued to advance, and nondurable goods manufacturing, which declined.
That decrease reflected a pullback in output for petroleum and coal products, plastics and rubber, and textiles.
And finally, on the bright side, Capacity Utilization continues to rise, now at its highest in a year…
The report is somewhat at odds with signals from recent surveys, which have indicated a pickup in activity amid customer stockpiling induced by the war, rising defense-related orders and the ongoing data center buildout.
Monday’s figures may be a sign that surging costs are starting to bite after a separate report last week showed prices received by producers rose in May from a year earlier at the fastest pace since 2022.
Taken all the above, we see this as favoring the doves very modestly.
USA ECONOMIC REPORT
USA/FRANCE
Trump Threatens 100% Tariff On French Wines Over Digital Services Tax
Monday, Jun 15, 2026 – 08:50 AM
Update (0810ET): France’s President Emmanuel Macron said Monday he wanted to have a “respectful but firm discussion” with Trump.
“We will have a respectful but firm discussion,” Macron told TF1 as he prepared to host Trump and other leaders at a G7 summit.
“Tariffs don’t do anyone any good, especially tariffs between G7 countries,” Macron said.
As Tom Ozimek reported earlier via The Epoch Times, U.S. President Donald Trump on June 15 threatened to impose a 100 percent tariff on French wines and champagne unless France eliminates its digital services tax on large American technology companies.
Trump said he delivered the warning directly to French President Emmanuel Macron, demanding that Paris scrap its 3 percent levy on major U.S. tech firms or face steep duties on some of France’s best-known exports.
“I asked him not to charge American companies, and if they do, I have no choice but to charge a 100% tariff on all champagnes and all wines coming out of France,” Trump told the New York Post in an interview. “All [Macron] has to do is get rid of the sales tax, and he wouldn’t have that kind of pressure.”
Trump’s threat prompted concern from French exporters, who warned of further strain on an industry that depends heavily on overseas markets.
“This new threat is bad news for our industry, which relies heavily on exports,” French wine and spirits exporters association FEVS said.
The group called for “responsible behavior” and urged France and the United States to maintain balanced and constructive trade relations “in the interest of both economies.”
France’s digital services tax, introduced in 2019, imposes a 3 percent levy on revenue generated in France by large digital companies. The tax applies to firms with more than about $29 million in French revenue and roughly $870 million in global revenue.
The measure has long drawn criticism from Washington, with the United States saying that it disproportionately targets American technology companies.
Experts say that even a relatively low digital services tax (DST) rate can lead to high effective tax burdens because revenues, rather than profits, are taxed.
“Because DSTs tax revenues, not profits, a company with a 10 percent profit margin would face a 60 percent effective tax rate on digital services provided in France,” economist Cristina Enache of the Tax Foundation Europe wrote in an October 2025 note.
Harvesters fill a press with Chardonnay grapes at the Mailly-Champagne cooperative during the 2025 Champagne harvest on August 26, 2025. Francois Nascimbeni/AFP via Getty Images
Enache described the French tax as discriminatory and cited research noting that France’s DST is ill-conceived because, while it purports to target big digital platforms, the cost mostly falls on consumers.
“The French DST, which functions like a tariff on certain services, is designed to be discriminatory,” Enache wrote. “It targets industries largely dominated by US companies, and the discrimination would be even greater if the revenue threshold is increased.”
Digital Tax Dispute
The United States has repeatedly challenged digital services taxes adopted by France and other countries. During Trump’s first term, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative launched a series of Section 301 investigations into digital taxes that Washington viewed as discriminatory toward American companies.
“President Trump is concerned that many of our trading partners are adopting tax schemes designed to unfairly target our companies,” then-U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in a June 2020 statement. “We are prepared to take all appropriate action to defend our businesses and workers against any such discrimination.”
Trump has previously threatened tariffs on French alcohol imports. In January, he said he would impose a 200 percent levy on French wines and champagne if France declined to participate in the U.S.-led Board of Peace initiative for Gaza. In March 2025, he threatened a 200 percent tariff on alcohol imports from France and other European Union countries after Brussels announced plans to impose a 50 percent tariff on American whiskey.
The stakes are significant for France’s wine industry. Exports of French wines and spirits to the United States account for roughly one-quarter of the sector’s global sales, valued at about $4.4 billion annually, per FEVS data for 2024.
Wine and spirits imported from the European Union currently face a 15 percent U.S. tariff, a rate French officials have been lobbying to reduce since Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reached a U.S.–EU trade agreement in Scotland last summer.
Last spring, amid an intensifying trade dispute between the United States and the EU, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that Trump’s tariff threats were intended to restore balance and fairness between trading partners.
“The EU has just so many years treated us so harshly, they just can’t stop,” Lutnick told Bloomberg TV in a March 2025 interview. “Their tariffs are way up here, and our tariffs are down here. How about: Relax. Let us balance it. We are your largest and most important trading partner. Treat us with respect and let’s get a little balance. Trump is out there saying: balance, balance, balance.”
The $1.8 Trillion Off-Balance Sheet Time Bomb At The Heart Of The AI Supercycle
Thought for 14s
The $1.8 trillion figure refers to estimated off-balance-sheet commitments tied to the massive AI infrastructure buildout by hyperscalers (e.g., Microsoft, Amazon, Google/Alphabet, Meta, Oracle), primarily from a recent Morgan Stanley analysis. zerohedge.com +1Breakdown of the $1.8 TrillionAccording to Morgan Stanley’s Global Valuation, Accounting & Tax team (as cited in recent reports), this exposure includes:
- ~ $982 billion in purchase commitments — Long-term contracts (e.g., for GPUs/chips from Nvidia and others) not recorded as liabilities until goods are delivered.
- ~ $822 billion in uncommenced lease commitments — Signed data center/power leases where operations haven’t started yet.
- Additional items — Tens of billions in supplier financing, unpaid capex in accounts payable (~$110 billion in some breakdowns), and other structures. These create real future cash outflows but don’t appear as traditional on-balance-sheet debt or liabilities under current accounting rules. zerohedge.com
This is layered on top of disclosed capex (hundreds of billions annually) and growing on-balance-sheet leverage. Hyperscaler gross leverage ratios have roughly doubled recently (e.g., from ~0.9x to 1.8x).
finance.biggo.comContext in the AI SupercycleHyperscalers are spending aggressively on data centers, chips, and power to support AI training and inference. Consensus and guidance point to ~$700 billion+ in 2026, with Goldman Sachs projecting potential escalation to $1.1–1.4 trillion in capex by 2027 in optimistic scenarios (comparing it to historical buildouts like railroads or autos).
zerohedge.comMuch of this is funded by:
- Internal cash flows (which Goldman notes could be largely consumed by end-2026).
- Corporate bonds (AI-related issuance surging; Morgan Stanley projects ~$570 billion globally in 2026). reuters.com
- Off-balance-sheet vehicles like Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs), private credit, and supplier financing (e.g., Meta deals where debt sits outside the main balance sheet via leases or partnerships). energynow.com
The “time bomb” narrative (popularized in ZeroHedge and elsewhere) highlights risks: future depreciation cliffs (e.g., construction-in-progress assets moving to the income statement, potentially pressuring margins), uncertain AI monetization/ROI (token pricing pushback, competition from cheaper models), slowing free cash flow, and systemic leverage hidden from traditional metrics. zerohedge.com +1Critics (and some investors like Chris Bloomstran) worry about overbuilding, poor returns if demand doesn’t materialize at scale, and knock-on effects if financing tightens. Proponents see it as necessary infrastructure investment with high long-term payoffs, supported by strong balance sheets and credit access.Broader PerspectiveThis isn’t unprecedented—big tech has used off-balance-sheet financing before (leases, etc.)—but the scale is extraordinary amid the AI hype cycle. Accounting rules allow these commitments to stay “off” until triggered, similar to how other capex-heavy industries operate. True risk depends on AI delivering sustained revenue growth to service the obligations.
planetearthandbeyond.coZeroHedge and financial media have amplified the story as a potential vulnerability at the heart of AI optimism.
zerohedge.com Morgan Stanley and Goldman provide more nuanced views: caution on hidden leverage and financing needs alongside bullish capex forecasts.In short, the $1.8T represents committed but non-consolidated future obligations fueling the AI buildout. Whether it’s a “time bomb” or prudent (if aggressive) investment will hinge on execution, demand, and returns over the next few years. Markets are pricing in the upside while volatility around capex surprises and monetization remains high.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
| The King Report June 15, 2026 Issue 7763 | Independent View of the News |
| Pakistan PM @CMShehbaz: Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. The official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland… With the agreement now in place, mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week. These pre-implementation discussions will lay the foundation for the technical talks and the official signing ceremony. 5:15 PM June 14 Trump on Truth Social: The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!… 5:29 PM June 14 Two hours later, Trump amended the deal: The Strait of Hormuz would open on the signing of the MOU. @emilykschrader: The fact that the U.S. administration has refused to release the key points of this MoU thus allowing the Islamic regime to dictate the public narrative time after time is an inexcusable failure by the United States… It’s beyond comprehension why a president who was clearly winning a war would listen to fools like Witkoff and Vance to “make a deal” that preserves the interests and survival of the Islamic republic… What is known about the deal/MOU: US lifts naval blockade of Iran; Ceasefire in Iran and Lebanon; Iran promises to open the Strait of Hormuz; and the ‘deal’ will be signed on Friday, June 19. Iran gets 60 days to export oil, refortify, and strategize. Iran claims that it and Oman will regulate Hormuz! Biggest losers: Iranian people! @Osint613: Iran’s Deputy FM: MOU text will be published after signing. Says the agreement does not reflect trust in the “enemy,” and confirms talks on a final deal will continue for 60 days. @Faytuks: The 60-day negotiation period between Iran and the US will only start after the US releases Iranian frozen assets as agreed upon, according to Iran’s deputy Foreign Minister. The nuclear issue will not be discussed before the US follows through on its commitments. Reportedly, the US will unfreeze $12B for not striking Israel Sunday. Iran made other grandiose claims without US verification. WSJ: Trump says a deal with Iran would include a pledge not to pursue nuclear weapons and the rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He also suggested there is no immediate requirement to remove Iran’s nuclear material, saying that step could come later. Trump: “We’ll get the nuclear dust later on when we’re ready to go in and do it. I’d say over the next month or two, there’s no rush, it’s harmless.” Trump: “As far as regime change, I never cared about regime change. This is the third group we’ve dealt with, and this is the most rational group yet.” (@TheIranWatcher: You should have let the Iranian people being massacred in the streets know that as well when you said, “Help is on the way.”) Iran will not receive cash funds in the deal, but sanctions are likely to be lifted. Israeli officials were caught off guard by Trump’s post declaring there should be no more Israeli attacks anywhere in Lebanon NYT phone interview with Trump Sunday night: Made deal despite Netanyahu’s objections. “Mr. Trump also insisted that if Iran failed to reach a final nuclear accord with the United States — a process his aides say they expect will begin on Friday in Switzerland — he would restart military attacks on Tehran or make the United States “the guardian of the Middle East” in return for 20 percent of the region’s revenues…” https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/06/14/world/iran-war-trump-us#trump-iran-deal-strait-of-hormuz Israel Hayom report: Trump’s negotiating team (VP JD Vance and envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff) has been advocating for a deal with Iran, partly due to concerns that the regime will not collapse within a reasonable time frame and partly due to pressure from Qatar  .On the other side, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth recently presented an assessment that the Iranian regime is dying due to economic pressure, and strengthening this pressure is the right way to achieve surrender or the overthrow of the regime. Last week, Trump decided to pursue go with the deal route. The memorandum of understanding allegedly includes the suspension of all sanctions on Iran’s oil sales — which could bring in $80-$120 billion a year. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly pushed against lifting sanctions on Iran, as returning to them would be problematic; terms were changed so that sanctions would only occur, at least in part, after the Strait of Hormuz is fully opened. Ynet: President Trump has demanded Israeli PM Netanyahu halt fire in Lebanon and begin a withdrawal of IDF forces, but Netanyahu rejected both demands. @TreyYingst on Sunday: Israel just struck Hezbollah in the Lebanese capital of Beirut. This followed Hezbollah fire into northern Israel overnight… The strikes today in Beirut are creating issues with finalizing the deal, a diplomat involved in the talks told Fox News. “This is a clear attempt by Israel to sabotage the President’s deal and drag the United States back into war,” the diplomat added. A senior Israeli official rejected the notion that Israel is to blame for the exchange of fire. “Hezbollah attacks have targeted Israeli civilians the past three days,” the official told Fox News… Iranian Parliament speaker Ghalibaf weighed in on the Beirut strikes as well: “The Zionists’ incursion into Dahiyeh has once again shown that America either lacks the will to fulfill its commitments or the ability to do so. By giving the green light to the regime, you cannot gain concessions. The game of bad cop and good cop is outdated. If you lack the will and ability to fulfill your commitments, speaking of continuing the path is not possible.” An Iranian military official said the Israeli strikes in Beirut will not go unanswered. After similar strikes last week Iran launched 30 ballistic missiles at Israel… President Trump says the Israeli “attack on Beirut should not have happened, particularly on a special day when we are so close to a Peace Deal with Iran.” He calls on all sides to stand down… Trump says he asked Israeli PM Netanyahu “what the fu*k are you doing?”… The President believes a deal with Iran will be electronically signed in the next 2-3 hours. 12:19 ET Trump: This morning’s attack on Beirut should not have happened, particularly on a special day when we are so close to a Peace Deal with Iran. Israel has the right to defend itself against threats, but the attack it was responding to was very small and meaningless, nobody was hurt, injured, or killed, and should not disrupt this important process. We are very close to a Deal that will bring peace to the region, including to Lebanon, and all sides should stand down. There should be no more attacks by Israel anywhere in Lebanon, but there should also be no more attacks by any other party, including Hezbollah, against Israel. This could be the beginning of a long and beautiful peace — Let’s not blow it!… Jun 14, 2026, 9:46 AM Axios’ Barak Ravid: Trump told me: “Why did Bibi have to do a f***ing attack? I was so pissed off. I let him know. He has no f***ing judgement. I let him know that.” (Bibi ruined DJT’s birthday!) @amjadt25: According to President Trump’s new standard, if al-Qaeda or Iran were to target Washington with “only” a few drones or missiles, and nobody was killed or injured, America should stand down and sign a deal with the aggressor. That approach will not bring peace to the region, including Lebanon and Israel. It risks teaching every side the same lesson: rearm, regroup, and prepare for the next round. A pause is not peace if everyone is simply loading more weapons for tomorrow. @Alighazizade: Hezbollah in Lebanon doesn’t even drink water without the permission of the Islamic Republic. Naim Qassem knows what an attack on northern Israel entails, and it’s impossible that he would have attacked Israel without coordination with Tehran. If the Islamic Republic believes that signing a memorandum of understanding with America will halt the war in Lebanon, it shouldn’t jeopardize the signing of that memorandum with a military attack on Israel… @IDF: ANOTHER BLATANT CEASEFIRE VIOLATION: Following sirens that sounded across northern Israel, a projectile that crossed from Lebanon impacted near Neot Mordechai, with several additional impacts identified in an area where IDF troops are operating in southern Lebanon. In addition, additional impacts of several suspicious aerial targets were identified near the Israel-Lebanon border. 12:55 PM · Jun 14, 2026 @AcynL Dept of War Sec Hegseth: The document says Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, won’t seek one, won’t buy one, won’t have one. CBS’ Brennan: JCPOA said that too. Hegseth: The huge difference is we did this from a position of strength. https://x.com/Acyn/status/2066168775708426345 Fox Managing Editor Politics @WillRicci: The US degraded some Iranian capabilities. That’s not the same as negotiating from strength. Negotiating from strength means Iran has no better option than accepting your terms. But the regime preserved leverage, learned Trump’s ceiling, and knew time was on its side. The problem the admin is running into is you can’t spin reality away. Maariv’s Anna Barsky: Exclusive. In one of the last conversations between Trump and Netanyahu, the president raised what Israel defines as the worst-case scenario – a withdrawal from the five points in southern Lebanon and from the Syrian Hermon, as part of broad arrangements with Iran. Netanyahu categorically rejected this. Today’s strike in Dahiyeh is not disconnected from the concern in Israel that Washington will try to limit the IDF’s freedom of action in Lebanon. The Israeli message: There are no new restrictions in the north – even on the way to an agreement with Tehran. @FaytuksNetwork: A senior Israeli cabinet minister tells Channel 12: ‘As far as we are concerned, Iran is Trump’s issue and he has the right to pursue an agreement, but Lebanon is ours, we must not agree to the Iranian equation, even at the cost of a severe confrontation with the U.S.’ (Friday) Israel must retain freedom to strike Iran to stop nuclear program, says Katz amid talk of imminent US-Iran deal https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-must-retain-freedom-to-strike-iran-to-stop-nuclear-program-says-katz-amid-talk-of-imminent-us-iran-deal/ @IsraeliPM Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: “As long as I am the Prime Minister of Israel – Iran will not have nuclear weapons. President Trump and I are in full agreement on this issue. For over 30 years, I have been at the forefront of the international struggle against Iran’s nuclear program. Were it not for this struggle, Iran would have long ago possessed atomic bombs to destroy Israel. Iran is working to destroy the Jewish state, and I am dedicating my life to preventing them from doing so. As long as I am the Prime Minister of Israel, this will not happen.” 7:41 AM · Jun 12, 2026 Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif @CMShehbaz: Amid ongoing intense mediation efforts by Pakistan, we are fully aware of incessant misinformation campaign being waged by those who want to sabotage the peace deal. Setting aside the noise, we can confirm that a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached and Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalize the next steps. Peace has never been this close as it is now. 12:13 AM · Jun 12, 2026 @CENTCOM Friday night: Iran launched multiple one-way attack drones in an attempt to strike commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. forces have downed all of them in recent hours as traffic flow through the strait continues unimpeded. The international trade corridor remains open… US stocks rallied robustly early on Friday in anticipation that SpaceX would open near 175 after it was IPOed at 135 on Thursday night. Bonds were down modestly. Oil and gasoline were down sharply on the prospect, for the umpteenth time, of a Iran peace deal. Precious metals rallied sharply. Fangs were largely flat, but AI bubble stocks soared on the usual daily buying of traders great and small. ESMs vacillated between small gains and moderate gains from their opening on Thursday night until they broke down at 1:45 ET. After falling to 7374.75 at 3:16 ET, traders conditioned to buying dips got active. An acute ABC rally took ESMs to 7451.25 at 5:36 ET. An irregular 5-wave decline appeared. ESMs fell to 7366.50 at 9:48 ET. Now it was time for conditioned US traders to buy the opening (NYSE) dip. A nearly vertical ABC rally appeared. ESM soared to a daily high of 7461.75 (+65.75) at 11:23 ET. ESMs went from a daily low of 7366.50 (-29.50) at 9:48 ET to 7461.75 (+65.75) 11:23 ET, a 95.25-point rally in less than 2 hours. ESMs then tumbled to 7408.50 at 11:50 ET because SpaceX opened at 150.00 and quickly fell to 135 (11:46 ET). PS – Reportedly, only 4.3% of the SpaceX float was IPOed. The cavalry appeared; SpaceX jumped to 168.75 at 11:55 ET. Musk became the world’s first trillionaire, on paper. ESMs stabilized. Alas, SpaceX fell to 155; ESMs sank to 7398.25 at 12:03 ET. The cavalry appeared again; Space X jumped to 176.52 at 13:10 ET; ESMs rallied to 7447.00 at 13:06 ET. SpaceX then rolled over into steady decline and ESMs traded sideways on this: SpaceX fell to 157.40 at 15:47 ET. A late manipulation forced it to 162.77 at 15:56 ET. It closed 161.11. ESMs fell to 7418.75 at 15:35 ET. The late manipulation forced it to 7429.00 at 16:02 ET. @GaryMarcus: SpaceX up 24% on news that investors no longer care about profitability. June UM Sentiment 48.9, 46 exp; Current Conditions 48.4, 46.1 consensus; Expectations 49.3, 44.7, consensus; 1-year Inflation 4.6%, 4.9% exp; 5-10-year Inflation 3.4%, 3.8% expected Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied moderately, ex-Fangs, on SpaceX euphoria. Oil and gasoline declined smartly. Negative aspects of previous session The NY Fang+ Index declined. Precious metals rallied sharply. Ambiguous aspects of previous session What are the odds that Iran signs a deal? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7416.96 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7456.40 (11:25 ET); 7363.01 (9:48 ET) The Historic Deal That Will Prevent Iran from Acquiring a Nuclear Weapon – Obama White House On January 16, 2016, the International Atomic Energy Agency verified that Iran has completed the necessary steps under the Iran deal that will ensure Iran’s nuclear program is and remains exclusively peaceful. Before this agreement, Iran’s breakout time — or the time it would have taken for Iran to gather enough fissile material to build a weapon — was only two to three months. Today, because of the Iran deal, it would take Iran 12 months or more. And with the unprecedented monitoring and access this deal puts in place, if Iran tries, we will know and sanctions will snap back into place… The Iran Deal blocks the four pathways to a nuclear weapon… https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/node/328996 Obama says Iran must halt key nuclear work for at least a decade March 2, 2015 Obama’s robust defense of a possible deal with Iran comes as his administration faces criticism from some quarters that it is being too eager to complete a deal, at the risk of allowing Iran to eventually become a nuclear state… https://www.reuters.com/article/world/us/exclusive-obama-says-iran-must-halt-key-nuclear-work-for-at-least-a-decade-idUSKBN0LY2G9/ When purported details of the MOU leaked on Saturday, Israeli officials and some US Senators voiced displeasure and likened Trump’s deal with Iran to Obama’s JCPOA. Trump responded on Truth Social. Trump: Barack Hussein Obama’s Deal with Iran, the JCPOA, was an easy, beautiful, smooth road to a nuclear weapon, which Iran would have had six years ago, and would have used long before now. My Agreement with Iran is the exact opposite, A WALL TO NO NUCLEAR WEAPON! In fact, they no longer want a Nuclear Weapon, nor will they have one, either through purchase, development, or any other form of procurement. The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL. Our relationship with Iran is a much different and better one than previous Administrations have had. Unlike Obama’s Hundreds of Billions of Dollars in payments to them, including 1.7 Billion Dollars in green, cold cash, no money will exchange hands. At the appropriate time, when all is calm, we will go in and get the Nuclear Dust, buried deep under the powerful sunken granite mountains, thanks to our beautiful B-2 Bombers and their brilliant pilots, and downblend and destroy it, whether in Iran, or the United States. We look forward to working with Iran, and the entire Middle East, long into the future. Hopefully, this process will all work out quickly, easily, and smoothly. If it doesn’t, we have the ultimate alternative, hopefully never to be used again!… Jun 13, 2026, 11:45 AM My Agreement with Iran is the exact opposite, A WALL TO NO NUCLEAR WEAPON! In fact, they no longer want a Nuclear Weapon, nor will they have one, either through purchase, development, or any other form of procurement. The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL. Our relationship with Iran is a much different and better one than previous Administrations have had. Unlike Obama’s Hundreds of Billions of Dollars in payments to them, including 1.7 Billion Dollars in green, cold cash, no money will exchange hands. At the appropriate time, when all is calm, we will go in and get the Nuclear Dust, buried deep under the powerful sunken granite mountains, thanks to our beautiful B-2 Bombers and their brilliant pilots, and downblend and destroy it, whether in Iran, or the United States. We look forward to working with Iran, and the entire Middle East, long into the future. Hopefully, this process will all work out quickly, easily, and smoothly. If it doesn’t, we have the ultimate alternative, hopefully never to be used again!… Iran sealed uranium cache and placed mines amid fears of US operation to seize material Getting to the roughly half-a-ton of highly-enriched uranium is now far more difficult, dangerous and time-consuming than it already was just a month ago, when President Donald Trump was publicly signaling that he might order the US military to seize it, the sources said. The new fortifications by the Iranians add an additional layer of complexity to the Trump administration’s proposed deal with Tehran to remove and destroy its uranium, and the move raises questions about who will take on the dangerous task of digging it out… https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/13/politics/iran-sealed-uranium-cache-tunnels-placed-mines @JewishWarrior13: If this CNN report is accurate, it would explain why the Iranians “agreed” to give up the enriched uranium. If the material has to be removed under a deal, Iran now has a convenient excuse that allows them to buy time, delay, lie, deceive, and claim they have no capability to extract the uranium. If there is no agreement, and the US tries to carry out a military operation to remove the uranium – it will now be much more difficult and complex even compared to a few weeks ago. @israelnewspulse: Fars News Agency said Trump’s repeated insistence that an agreement with Iran will be signed on Sunday is a test for Iran’s negotiating team. The outlet suggested Trump may want a symbolic achievement on his birthday, June 14, but argued Iranian officials have made clear that no final agreement has been reached and that a Sunday signing is unlikely. According to Fars, the issue has become a test of whether Iranian negotiators will resist political and media pressure. @realDonaldTrump: Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation! Jan 3, 2020 Today – Traders want to play for the Monday, Fed Week and June Expiration Week Rallies. A key for today could be the Sunday night high and lows of ESMs (7567.75, 7542.00) and NQMs (30,394.00, 30,191.00). If these numbers are violated, it could provoke spirited action in the direction of the breach. Traders are extremely bullish on Sunday. The risk is that ‘they’ over do it and get too long. ESMs are +74.50; NQMs are +500.75; WTI is -$4.22; gasoline is -9.20¢; USMs are +25/32 at 20:16 ET. The markets are closed on Friday for Juneteenth. June expiration will occur on Thursday. Expected Economic Data: May Industrial Production 0.2% m/m. Manufacturing Production 0.3% m/m, Capacity Utilization 76.2%; June NAHB Housing Market Index 36 S&P Index 50-day MA: 7248; 100-day MA: 7019; 150-day MA: 6956; 200-day MA: 6882 DJIA 50-day MA: 49,559;100-day MA: 48,891; 150-day MA: 48,594; 200-day MA: 48,030 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (7431.46 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6078.33 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6842.49 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 7553.16 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 7384.48 triggers a sell signal Trump on Friday night: At my direction, the United States Southern Command delivered a swift and lethal kinetic strike to successfully execute Niño Guerrero, the infamous leader of Tren De Aragua, one of the most bloodthirsty Terrorist Organizations on Planet Earth. Before I returned to office, Joe Biden opened our Southern Border to millions of Illegal Criminals, and allowed this foreign army to rape, maim, and murder American Citizens with total impunity. During my Campaign, I pledged to expel these monsters from our Country, and bring Justice to the families of those they slaughtered, including the precious 12-year-old Jocelyn Nungaray, 22-year-old Laken Reilly, and countless other beautiful souls. With this action, the United States Military has brought retribution for them, their families, and their loved ones. Early in my Administration, I delivered on my promise to designate Tren de Aragua as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, deport thousands of evil criminals, and wage war against the Cartels, who have long been waging war against our Citizens, while weak leaders left America helpless and defensive. This action was coordinated closely with our friends in Venezuela, with whom we are working very well. As a result, Tren de Aragua terrorists no longer have safe haven in Venezuela or anywhere else and, under my leadership, we will find these vicious murderers and drugs lords anytime, anyplace, and send them to the depths of hell where they belong… (Mexico next?) @DNIGabbard: Today, I’m releasing never before seen intelligence revealing new evidence of past US government funding for more than 120 biolabs in over 30 countries, including Ukraine. In support of President Trump‘s Executive Order to end federal funding of dangerous gain of function research around the world, and increase transparency and accountability, ODNI will continue working with partners across the Administration to identify where these labs are, what pathogens they contain, and what “research” is being conducted. https://odni.gov/index.php/news We’re old enough to remember that MSM figures and pro-Ukraine US pols screamed ‘conspiracy theory’ when people said there were US biolabs in Ukraine (and elsewhere). @JasonJournoDC: Jillian Michaels: “What I find so funny is that Obama — who shamed all of the black men for not voting for Harris — then went to fricking Virginia and campaigned AGAINST the black woman who’s a Marine … FOR a WHITE liberal who worked for the CIA.” https://x.com/JasonJournoDC/status/2066247200296837536 LA homeowners say ballots keeps coming in mail despite repeated efforts to stop them (The election was two weeks ago! But the MSM still declares ‘no evidence of vote fraud!) https://trib.al/xdwZDUY | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Federal Government Pauses Funding To Los Angeles Homeless Agency Citing Fraud Allegations
Friday, Jun 12, 2026 – 03:40 PM
Authored by City News Service via The Epoch Times,
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) on June 11 suspended federal funding to the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority (LAHSA), cutting off millions of dollars to the L.A. region, over allegations of fraud and widespread mismanagement.
HUD Secretary Scott Turner testifies before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Transportation, Housing and Urban Development about his department’s proposed FY2026 budget in the Dirksen Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill in Washington on May 14, 2026. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
HUD action to suspend federal funding comes in the wake of an investigation into LAHSA, Secretary Scott Turner announced Thursday, adding that the agency has “uncovered evidence of LAHSA’s false statements and its irresponsible actions and failures,” including a lack of financial management and lack of safeguards against conflicts of interest.
The Los Angeles Continuum of Care (CoC), led by LAHSA, has received nearly $1 billion in taxpayer dollars over the last five years. Despite federal assistance, L.A. remains the epicenter of the nation’s “drug-fueled” homeless crisis, according to Turner.
“Under President Trump’s leadership, HUD will fund results, not corrupt failure or the homeless-industrial complex,” Turner said in a statement. “Year after year, hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars were funneled to LAHSA with little accountability. Meanwhile, homelessness skyrocketed. Taxpayers will no longer bankroll an organization that puts its own self-interests ahead of the Americans it was created to serve.”
HUD stated in a letter to LAHSA that suspension of funding will be final if the agency does not contest the notice by requesting a hearing. LAHSA must file a written hearing request within 30 days of receipt of the notice.
LAHSA officials pushed backed on the federal government’s claims, stating that its actions could put thousands of formerly homeless people back on the street.
“LAHSA received a letter from HUD announcing a suspension of CoC funding. After initial review, this appears to be a blatant attempt to pull yet more resources from Los Angeles, a city they have targeted time and again, when it is clear that LAHSA has either corrected or is in the process of correcting nearly all of the issues raised,” according to a statement from LASHA.
The organization maintained that local oversight actions have already resulted in strong repairs and reforms to LAHSA’s internal controls, which officials said are “accountable and viewable to the public.”
“If HUD’s Inspector General actually conducts a fair review of LAHSA’s current and future practices, they will clearly see how our systems now allow us to clearly track the work and investments that have resulted in L.A. outperforming the nation by reducing homelessness over the last two years,” LAHSA said in it’s statement.
A homeless encampment in Los Angeles, on Jan. 7, 2026. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times
“While the review plays out, our immediate priority is to explore all available options to ensure that federal funds continue to support the thousands of people who have been housed through LAHSA and our broader rehousing system,” the statement continued.
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass expressed deep concern about HUD’s announcement, according to her office.
“Mayor Bass, too, has grave concerns about LAHSA and zero tolerance for mismanagement and negligence, which is why she previously directed the city to evaluate how to move away from the agency,” according to a statement from her office.
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass speaks during an event in Los Angeles on May 8, 2026. Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images
“Threatening federal funds does nothing to house people and jeopardizes the progress Mayor Bass has led to reduce homelessness for two years in a row, after it only went up in Los Angeles for years. Ultimately, people will lose their lives. We urge HUD to work with the city of Los Angeles to provide the necessary funding to reduce homelessness,” the statement continued.
County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath described HUD’s decision as a publicity stunt.
“I have been calling for change and accountability at LAHSA, but if this administration desires accountability, too, they should work WITH L.A. County,” Horvath said in a statement.
Lindsey Horvath speaks onstage at the 2019 Women’s March Los Angeles in Los Angeles on Jan. 19, 2019. Araya Diaz/Getty Images for Women’s March Los Angeles
HUD’s investigation found what it described as a “clear pattern of fraud.”
For example, in August 2023, LAHSA could not determine whether it used funding to pay for empty hotel rooms because the agency failed to record when individuals exited transitional motel housing, according to HUD.
Federal officials cited findings from a November 2024 audit conducted by L.A. City Controller Kenneth Mejia, which found LAHSA failed to spend approximately $513 million in homelessness funding budgeted for that year.
A letter from HUD referenced the resignation letter of former LAHSA CEO Va Lecia Adams Kellum, who stepped down last year. Her decision came after the L.A. County Board of Supervisors decided to move $300 million and hundreds of workers away from the homeless agency into the new Department of Homeless Services and Housing.
An investigation by LAist found Kellum signed a $2.1 million contract with a nonprofit organization that employed her husband.
LAHSA has faced criticism for providing late payments to service providers, maintaining inadequate records and failing to monitor contract and spending more accurately.
The agency has implemented new policies, and created online public dashboards to address these issues.
Los Angeles city and county officials have also made moves to improve transparency and accountability regarding homeless funding, as well as to ensure better outcomes of programs and services.
People approach a woman resting in a homeless encampment in Los Angeles, on Jan. 7, 2026. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times
Despite the allegations that Los Angeles has failed to reduce homelessness, officials said recent data showed significant progress.
In June, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced California achieved the largest reduction in unsheltered homelessness in the nation last year, and saw the largest decline in unsheltered homelessness since 2009, citing HUD’s data.
Los Angeles experienced a 10.3 percent drop in unsheltered homelessness, with the largest regional drop nationwide, according to HUD’s data.
The Los Angeles region saw the first decline in homelessness starting in 2024. LAHSA’s 2025 point-in-time count showed there was a 4 percent decrease in homeless people across the county, while in the city of Los Angeles, there was a 3.4 percent drop.
Data showed that unsheltered homelessness in the county declined by 9.5 percent in 2025 compared to the prior year, and it has dropped by 14 percent over the last two years. Additionally, there has been about an 8.5 percent increase of unhoused individuals entering interim housing, such as shelters and other forms of temporary housing.
In the city of L.A., unsheltered homelessness declined by 7.9 percent in 2025, and it has dropped by 17.5 percent over the last two years. LAHSA reported there has been a 4.7 percent increase in unhoused individuals entering temporary housing in the city.
END
this is not good if true…
White House Suspects NY Times Reporters Have Situation Room Recordings
Monday, Jun 15, 2026 – 12:05 PM
Senior Trump administration officials are convinced that two New York Times reporters have somehow obtained recordings of White House Situation Room meetings, which would represent an astounding breach of security, Axios reported on Sunday.
“We’re afraid some of our most sensitive conversations were being recorded,” a White House official told Axios. “And we have no idea which ones.”
The two journalists are Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, and the officials are convinced that verbatim Situation Room conversations reproduced in their soon-to-be-released book must have come from recordings of deliberations inside what should be the most secure conference room in the world. The book — Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump — will be released on June 23rd, but excerpts already posted by the Times included detailed quotes from conversations that took place in the Situation Room.
Some of those direct quotes first appeared in an April 7 Times article on the deliberations that took place in the run-up to Trump’s decision to team up with Israel in launching a major war on Iran. That report, also by Haberman and Swan, described how administration officials reacted to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s aggressive campaign to convince Trump to betray his campaign pledge to avoid regime-change wars.
Netanyahu was said to have assured Trump that Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal could be destroyed in just a few weeks, that Iran wouldn’t be able to stop traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, that Iran wasn’t likely to attack other countries in the region, that a huge protest movement could be sparked into seizing power, and that Kurdish fighters from Iraq might be enticed into attacking.
Of course, like his infamous 2002 assurance that an invasion of Iraq would have “enormous positive reverberations on the region,” all of Netanyahu’s assurances about a war on Iran proved spectacularly wrong. At the time, according to Haberman and Swan’s reporting, some Trump administration officials were rightly skeptical. The day after Netanyahu’s presentation, CIA Director John Ratcliffe was said to have called Netanyahu’s pitch “farcical.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio was quoted as bluntly restating Ratcliffe’s characterization: “In other words, it’s bullshit.”
When Trump asked Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine to weigh in, he’s quoted as saying, “Sir, this is, in my experience, standard operating procedure for the Israelis. They oversell, and their plans are not always well-developed. They know they need us, and that’s why they’re hard-selling.”
Axios notes that the use of quotations doesn’t necessarily indicate an audio recording was obtained: “Bob Woodward pioneered contemporary historical political journalism by including dialogue in his books that was reconstructed from the memories of people in the rooms where things happened.” However, the fact that senior White House officials are concerned about what they’ve seen so far suggests that Haberman and Swan’s quotes may not be mere reconstructions. What’s more, the promotional descriptions of the book tout “unprecedented reporting from deep within the administration’s most closely guarded rooms.”
END
GREG HUNTER…INTERVIEWING WARREN WESTON..
Black Star Causing “Earthquakes in Divers Places” – Weston Warren
By Greg Hunter On June 13, 2026 In Political Analysis9 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)
Scientist and inventor Weston Warren is back with another update on the so-called Black Star or electromagnetic anomaly that entered our solar system more than two decades ago. It’s slow moving, it’s an event that only happens about every 4,000 years, and it causes earth changes and destruction. USAW and Warren have been following the progression of the Black Star since April 2025. The Black Star will be the closest it has been to Earth in 4,000 years, but it will not hit Earth. Warren has predicted the Black Star will detonate many earthquakes and volcanoes worldwide in 2026. So far, he’s been correct with numerous earthquakes and volcanos being tracked around the world. Recently, in the US, there are quakes and tremors in the Pacific Northwest, Oklahoma and a 6.1 quake near Cuba that was felt all across Florida. Is this fulfilling the prediction Jesus made in Matt 24:7 when he predicted that in the “Last Days,” you would see “earthquakes in divers places”?
Warren says, “It’s been more than 22 years . . . and it takes around 30 years for a planet the size of earth, 30 years for the core receiving additional electromagnetic energy to manifest in disruption of continental plates and new land masses forming because magma plumes breach the surface. Magma plumes can breach the surface under the ocean, and it can breach the surface between the plates on land, and the Earth gets reconfigured. There is no way to stop it. You will know we are getting closer to magma breaching the surface and reconfiguring landmasses because you will get schizophrenic weather patterns, increased tornado activity . . . big temperature swings . . . high winds . . . and much bigger hail. In Missouri, we had softball size hail a few weeks ago. That was unheard of 16 years ago. . .. This is not normal. This is manifestation of the stress the earth is under because of this extra electromagnetic emitter, but mainstream media governments are like what are you talking about? This kind of information is not going to get mainstream coverage.”
Warren also points out another sign things are coming to a geological head are the depth of the earthquakes. Warren says, “If you look at these earthquakes when they first started, they were 200 to 400 miles below the surface 22 years ago. Now, they are 12 to 18 miles below the surface. These magma plumes have gone from 200 to 400 miles below the surface to 18 miles below the surface. We are getting to the point where they are going to start to breach the ocean floors and land masses. When that happens, it’s too late to have a plan ‘B’ because we will now be at the threshold of a geological reset. You could say it will be at Biblical proportions. . .. We will see this very soon in the next few years.”
Warren also brings up water and what the elite are not telling you about it. With the right water configuration, you may actually have a fountain of youth effect. Most people get what Warren calls bulk water. Warren has been working on energizing water to hydrate much more effectively and grow plants up to 300% better. Warren does a deep dive into water.
In closing, Warren still contends there is going to be a “spiritual correction needed to survive the Black Star. . .. I firmly believe that there is a bright future ahead. We have tough times now, but a better future is ahead.”
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Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with Weston Warren, scientist and inventor of the bipolar ionization technology. He will update us on the Black Star and damage of Biblical proportions coming that can’t be stopped for 6.13.26.
After the Interview:
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