JUNE 30//GOLD CLOSED UP $2.85 TO $4026.45//SILVER CLOSED UP $1.35 TO $59.52//PLATINUM WAS DOWN $24.00 TO $1553.00 WITH PALLADIUM ALSO DOWN $7.00 TO $1210.50//GOLD COMMENTARY BROUGHT TO US BY ROBERT LAMBOURNE //LAST 24 HOURS COURTESY OF MIKE EVERY OF RABOBANK//REPORTS TONIGHT ON THE ECONOMY IN CHINA//ALSO REPORTS FROM HOLLAND, FRANCE AND THE UK//ISRAEL AND THE USA VS IRAN UPDATES/ISRAEL TBN HIGHLIGHTS/HEZBOLLAH UPDATES/RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES//USA DATA RELEASES/USA ECONOMIC REPORTS///KING NEWS/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 3269 118 C MACQUARIE FUTURES US 99 167 C MAREX 1 323 C HSBC 320 363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 1027 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 2330 555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 814 661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 2990 130 686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 22 709 C BARCLAYS 83 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 244 737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 19 905 C ADM 68
TOTAL: 5,708 5,708 MONTH TO DATE: 5,708
JPMORGAN STOPPED: 130/5708
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2026: 5708 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 570,800 OZ or 17.754 TONNES
total notices so far: 5708 contracts FOR 570,800 OZ OR 17.754 TONNES
JUNE 30
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SILVER NOTICES: 4775 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 23.875 OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 4775 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 23.875 million oz
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BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $2.85 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/// NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $1.35 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILV INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.447 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV /// : INVENTORY RESTS AT THE SLV AT 479.127 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 480.574 MILLION OZ
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 1560 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 107,958 STILL A LOT HIGHER FROM ITS NEW RECORD LOW OF 95,999 SET MAY 1/2026. THE RECORD HIGH OI FOR SILVER IS 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS OF $1.08 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. ON THE FIRST OF MAY, WE REACHED OUR RECORD LOW OI OF 95,999 SURPASSING EVERY DAY NEW OI LOWS SET DURING THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL 2026.
NOW ON A NET BASIS OUR SPECULATORS HAVE REVERTED BACK TO GOING SHORT. THE FRBNY ON A NET BASIS IS PROVIDING THE NECESSARY PAPER TO OUR LONG BANKERS AND THEN TENDER FOR PHYSICAL AT 4 PM EACH NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE HUGE SHORTFALL IN PHYSICAL SILVER IN LONDON THERE IS A LOTTERY TO SEE WHO GETS ANY OF THE PHYSICAL SILVER AVAILABLE THAT WHICH THEY ARE OBLIGATED TO DELIVER. THEY WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THEIR PHYSICAL METAL AND IF NOBODY GETS ANY THEY THEN COME BACK THE NEXT DAY AND SO ON. THIS IS IN LONDON, THE HOME OF PHYSICAL SILVER!! THE FACT THAT WE ARE WITNESSING MANY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON HIGHLIGHTS THE FACT THAT THE COMEX IS OUT OF SILVER AS WELL.
WE ARE NOW MOVING TO A MUCH LOWER BASE IN SILVER PRICING BREAKING MAJOR SUPPORT LEVEL OF $70.00. SHORTLY WE WILL REVERT BACK TO NUMBERS GREATER THAN 70 DOLLARS PER OZ.
WE HAVE A MEGA HUGE GAIN OF 2040 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A STRONG SIZED SIZED 480 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE , WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS IN COMEX TRADING WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY TRADING// WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED 531 CONTRACT T.A.S. ISSUANCE!! / THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TODAY TRYING TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $100.00 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY SUCCEEDED ON MONDAY WITH SILVER’S LOSS IN PRICE
THE PRICE STILL FINISHED BELOW THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $70.00 SILVER SPOT PRICE BUT STILL BELOW THE $100.00 MARK CLOSING AT $57.41 DOWN $1.08. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING HAVING MANY HUGE T.A.S ISSUANCES // TODAY’S WAS A VERY STRONG SIZED 531 T.A.S. CONTRACTS !!. THE CROOKS ARE BECOMING MORE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING ABOVE THE 100.00 DOLLAR MARK!! AND NOW THE HUGE SUPPORT LEVEL OF 70 DOLLARS HAS BEEN BROKEN// //.MAMMOTH SIZE T.A.S ISSUANCES ARE BECOMING THE NORM AT THE COMEX NOW!!
THERE IS NO NEXT LINE IN THE SAND ONCE THE 100.00 DOLLAR SILVER IS PIERCED AGAIN. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 480 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR STRONG SIZED 531 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN FUTURE TRADING//AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE.
IN ESSENCE WE HAD A MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2040 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.08. WE HAD HUGE GOVERNMENT (FRBY) COMEX CONTRACTS TRADING ALL WEEK AND A MAJOR PORTION WILL BE REMOVED BY DAYS END. (I RECORD THIS FOR YOU ON A DAILY BASIS). THE STICKY SPECULATOR LONGS STILL REMAIN STOIC
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.
THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, THROUGHOUT MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING: A STRONG SIZED 531 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THESE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED FRBNY BANKERS).
THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS AS ONE UNIT, BUT SELL THE SHORT SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE LONG SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS NOW ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1.1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES.
THUS:
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF XX CONTRACTS OR XXX OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER 3 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP TO LONDON FOR 0.015 MILLION OZ// AND THEN TO BOOT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 51 CONTRACTS OR 255,000 OZ MAY 21./STANDING BEFORE EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 32.070 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING THUS REDUCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ/.//(32.070 MILLION OZ NORMAL STANDING PLUS .255 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 32.325 MILLION OZ)
JUNE INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER:10.935 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 12.970 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 20 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.070 MILLION OZ. (IN EXCHANGE FOR RISK THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK AND ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD TAKE THAT RISK. THE BUYER IS PROBABLY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA.)
JULY INITIAL STANDING: 37.110 MILLION OZ:
SUMMARY OF OUR JUNE 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH:
WE HAD:
/ HUGE COMEX GAIN+// STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS AT 480 CONTRACTS (/ VI) A STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 531CONTRACTS
xx I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 83 SILVER CONTRACT//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE.. ACCUMULATION
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 21 DAY(S), total 12,813 contracts: OR 64.065 MILLION OZ (610 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 64.065 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 28.975 MILLION OZ (ISSUANCE WILL BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 81.065 MILLION OZ
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
MAY 59.79 MILLION OZ
JUNE. 64.065 MILLION OZ//FINAL AND FAIR SIZED THIS MONTH.
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1643 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.08 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE OF 480 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT, AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS).
INITIAL STANDING: 37.110 MILLION OZ
LAST 14 MONTHS OF SILVER DELIVERIES
WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 16.050 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
AND MAY:
NEW STANDING FOR MAY FINISHES AT: 75.615 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 5,000 OZ EFP TRANSFER TO LONDON + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 88.540 MILLION OZ
AND JUNE: FINAL 16.995 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP OF 15,000 OZ//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 32.070 MILLION OZ//(FOLLOWING MANY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON DURING THIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH). THERE SEEMS TO BE A SCARCITY OF SILVER OVER AT THE COMEX). THEN WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 51 CONTRACTS FOR 255,000 OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND: 10.935 MILLION OZ PLUS OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 12.960 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 20 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.070 MILLION OZ
JULY : INITIAL STANDING: 37.110 MILLION OZ
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FOR TODAY (531) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED NO DOUBT WITH FUTURE TRADING LIKE TODAY.
WE HAD 4775 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 23.875 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY BANKERS
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1780 OI CONTRACTS UP TO 365,274 OI AND THIS OI SURPASSES BY A CONSIDERABLE MARGIN THE ALL TIME LOW AT 326,052 SET JUNE3/2026 AND THIS OI IS MUCH FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE HAVE NOW ADVANCED PAST THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOWS OF 357,136 SET APRIL 2/.2026AND 354,581 SET AT THE END OF APRIL 2026. WE ARE STILL QUITE A WAY FROM OUR TWO DECADES OLD: 390,000 CONTRACTS LOW SET IN THE YEAR OF 2001 WITH TRADING FOR GOLD AT $260.00. THUS DURING EARLY APRIL WE HAD AN ALL TIME LOW OI IN COMEX (354,531) BUT WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. IN MAY: RECORD LOW OI OF 326,052 WITH A GOLD PRICE OF $4,460 THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE COMEX SHIP, NOBODY WANT TO PLAY IN THIS CROOKED CASINO!! (AND THIS CORRELATES WITH SILVER’S LOW OI OF 104,154 CONTRACTS WITH A MUCH HIGHER SILVER PRICE BASE//$58.00)
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A 30 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A FAIR GAIN IN COMEX OI (1780 CONTRACTS) . THIS GAIN IN OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $58.30 //,MONDAY
DAY///.
LAST 14 MONTHS OF GOLD DELIVERIES: (MAY 2025 THROUGH TO /MAY 2026)
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
FINAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.174 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 1. MONDAY’S (MAY 19) 6.221 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK , 2. THEN WE ADD: 1.35 TONNES TO LAST WEEK”S. THEN WE ADD 3. 1.55 TONNES TO EQUAL 9.591 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 9.591 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE OF 80.644 TONNES. THUS STANDING FOR MAY INCREASES TO 90.235 TONNES OF GOLD
2 JUNE CONTRACT MONTH: 93.085 TONNES OF GOLD (WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND 0 EX FOR RISK)
3.JULY INITIIAL STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE: 17.847 TONNES. PLUS TODAY’S 0 TONNES QUEUE JUMP + 1.555 TONNES EX FOR RISK + 2.195 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY = 41.106 TONNES STANDING
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 345 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 34,500 OZ/ (1.073 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 345 CONTRACTS OR 34500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 24.635 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES OF GOLD.
JUNE; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 64.496 TONNES.(CME CORRECTED) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.0186 TONNES/NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.206 TONNES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE/FOR OPENING JUNE. GOLD CONTRACT
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2805 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 365,274 SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 326,052 SET JUNE 3 AND RISING FROM OUR PREVIOUS RECORD LOW//MAY 28.2026 WE HAVE THUS RECORD LOW COMEX OI WITH A HIGH PRICE OF GOLD
SILVER ALSO HAS AN ULTRA SMALL SIZED AND EXTREMELY LOW COMEX OI OF 107,958 CONTRACTS// STILL ABOVE FROM PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOWS SET DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL AND MAY FIRST.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS IN COMEX GOLD ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4585 CONTRACTS WITH 1780 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 1840 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.
THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4585 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A LITTLE WEAKER SIZED AND CRIMINAL 1131 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON LIKE THIS WEEK’S OPTION EXPIRY WEEK.
GOLD PRICE ON MONDAY FELL BY $58.30
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS CONTRACT (2805 ) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR GAIN IN COMEX OI OF 1780 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES 4585 CONTRACTS!! DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE.
WE HAVE 1) NOW REVERTED TO OUR FORMAT OF BANKER (FRBNY) GOING ON THE LONG SIDE AND HUGE NUMBERS OF NEWBIE SPECULATORS GOING TO THE SHORT SIDE LED BY THE NOSE BY OUR HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS.. IT WAS OUR SHORT SPECULATORS THAT WILL BE BRUTALIZED WHEN OUR CENTRAL BANKS TENDER FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THEIR NEWLY BOUGHT GOLD FROM THE SPECS THIS MORNING. THE SPECS WILL BE SCRAMBLING LOOKING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD TO DELIVER TO OUR LONG CENTRAL BANKS.
STANDING FOR THE LAST 5 MONTHS JANUARY TO MAY:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 345 CONTRACTS/34,500 OZ// 1.073 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MAY// 5 OCCASIONS: 24.635 TONNES///NEW STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER JUMP OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES//FINAL
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 37.110 TONNES OF GOLD;
3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION IN THE COMEX SESSION AND SOME GOVT LIQUIDATION // WITH A STRONG LOSS OF EQUITY SHARES/JUNE29 HAVING 1)A $58.30 COMEX PRICE LOSS AND WE HAD 2) SPEC PILING HUGELY ON THE SHORT SIDE// +3. EASTERN CENTRAL BANKERS ALSO PILING INTO THE LONG SIDE. WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 4585 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AND AS WELL A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN JULY. (23.306 TONNES). THE SHORT SPECS CONTINUED TO PILE INTO THE SHORT SIDE.//, CENTRAL BANKERS THE LONG SIDE AND THEY THEN TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL WITH THEIR PURCHASES OF CONTRACTS../ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED FRIDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL
4)A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN 5) V) FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD(2805) AND 6. A FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE (1131) FOR RAID PURPOSES.!!!
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 45,670 CONTRACTS OR 4,567,000 OZ OR 142.053 TONNES IN 21 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2174 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN21 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 142.053 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2025, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 142.053 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 4.00% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2023 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2024: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES
2025: AND NOW 2026
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 118.430 TONNES
JUNE: 142.053 TONNES
SPREADERS:
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE 1780 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 107.958
EFP ISSUANCE 480 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 480 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1,560 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 480 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OF 2040 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS OF $1.08
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 10.200 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE.OF $1.08
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS JUNE 30 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.50 PTS OR 0.50%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 145.66 PTS OR 0.63%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 594.21 PTS OR 0.86%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.36%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7855
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7913 Oil UP TO 70.60 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 73.98 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7855) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7913 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR 1780 CONTRACTS TO 365,274 WELL ABOVE ITS NEW LOW OF 326,052 OI SET JUNE 3, CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 345,705 SET (MAY 28) AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 353,490 SET MAY 27.. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 326,052 //JUNE 3 2026 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,450.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING MONDAY’S MASSIVE COMEX TRADING//RAID JUNE 29 IT SEEMS THAT MANY OF THE SPECULATORS THAT HAVE NOW CONTINUED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY ON THE SHORT SIDE WITH BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE WILL BE OBLITERATED TODAY WHEN THE LONGS TENDERED FOR DELIVERY:
CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS JULY CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (4585 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD (DOWN $58.30)
WE THUS HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 4585 CONTRACTS (OR 14.261 TONNES) WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A FAIR CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, EQUATING TO 2805 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A 0 CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD. ON FRIDAY, BY FAR WE HAD THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK EVER ISSUED AT ONE TIME BEATING THE PREVIOUS SINGLE HIGHEST ISSUE BY ONE TONNE. THUS MAY 22 RECORDS THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 12.4416 TONNES. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THE THIRD ON MAY 18 , THEN MAY 21 OUR 4TH ISSUANCE AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY, OUR 5TH ISSUANCE. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH JUNE
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS OR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES.
JUNE: 0 IN GOLD. THUS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IN GOLD ZERO NOTICES WERE FILED.
JULY 0
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO JUNE:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 146+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS, 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
JUNE: ZERO
JULY 0
DETAILS ON OUR NEW JUNE COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4585 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE($58.30). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE/ CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A WEAKER SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1131 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND NOW MAY WITH ITS 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 12.4436 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 24.635 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12, MAY 18 MAY 21 AND NOW MAY 22..
JUNE: ZERO FOR THE MONTH
JULY: ZERO SO FAR
WE MUST ALSO REMEMBER THAT THE FRBNY IS SHORT 146+ TONNES OF GOLD, THIS COMMENCED ON JAN 2 2023 AS THEY REFUSE TO COVER DESPITE THE BIS’S PLEA TO DO SO. WE WILL KNOW IN JUNE WHETHER THEY COVERED ANY OF THEIR SHORTFALL.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 34,500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNESS
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE SUBTRACT AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES// TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH FINALIZES AT 62.4217 TONNES OR AVERAGING 3.285 TONNES PER DAY IN JUNE.
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 749,300 OZ OR 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD:
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING JUNE,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $58.30)
WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE , OUR SPECULATORS STILL WENT MASSIVELY TO THE SHORT SIDE LED BY THE NOSE BY OUR HIGH FREQUENCY MOMENTUM PLAYERS WITH CENTRAL BANKERS TAKING THE LONG SIDE. THE SPECS WERE ANNIHILATED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
MONDAY NIGHT//TUESDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING //TUESDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $58.30
WE HAD 60 CONTRACTS REMOVED AT THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4585 CONTRACTS OR 458,500 OZ (14.261 TONNES)
total withdrawal: 149,084.187 oz (4637 kilobars or 4.637 tonnes)
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
1 ENTRY
i) Into Asahi Dealer: 32,013.902 oz
total deposit 32,013.902 oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold
ENTRIES: 0
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No of oz served (contracts) today
5708 CONTRACTS
OR 570,800 OZ
17.754 TONNES OF GOLD
No of oz to be served (notices)
1785 Contracts 178,500 OZ 5.552 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5708 notices 570800 OZ
17.754 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
dealer deposits: 1
1 ENTRY
1 ENTRY
i) Into Asahi Dealer: 32,013.902 oz
total deposit 32,013.902 oz
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
ENTRIES: 0
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comex withdrawal
2 ENTRIES
i) Out of Brinks: 133,008.687 oz (4137 kilobars)
ii) Out of Loomis: 16,075.500 oz
(500 kilobars)
total withdrawal: 149,084.187 oz
(4637 kilobars or 4.637 tonnes)
adjustments: 1// customer account to dealer account
a)Brinks: 7999.99 oz
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF JULY OI STANDS AT 7493 CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF ONLY 52 CONTRACTS.
THUS BY DEFINITION THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX IS AS FOLLOWS
7493 NOTICES XXX 100 OZ PER NOTICE
EQUALS
749,300 OZ OR 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD. I PROMISED YOU 21 TONNES AND IN HINDSIGHT WE DID MUCH BETTER. CENTRAL BANKS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUR SIDE OF THE PLANET LOOKING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD.
AUGUST GAINED 1996 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 274,589
SEPTEMBER GAINED 99 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 996.
.
We had 5708 contracts filed for today representing 570,800oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 2990 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 5708 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 130 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JULY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5708) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY 7493 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 5708 x 100 oz per contract) equals 749,300 OZ OR (23.306 Tonnes of gold)
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JULY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5708) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY( XXX CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 5708 x 100 oz per contract) equals 749,300 OZ OR (23.306 Tonnes of gold)
new total of gold standing in JULY becomes 23/306 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JULY 23.306 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW REALLY HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.
confirmed volume MONDAY confirmed 118,805/ poor// many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,693,594.921 oz 52.67 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,693,594.921 tonnes oz 52.67 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 27,559,820.257 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 14,828,446.185 tonnes (461.226tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 12,731,374.072 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,134,852oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
408.54 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
JULY DELIVERY MONTH
JUNE 30
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
0 entries
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
0 entries
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1 entries
i) Into Manfra: 301,024.934 oz
total deposit: 301,024.934 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
4775 CONTRACT(S) (23.875 MILLION OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2647 Contracts (13.23 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
4775 contracts 23.775 MILLION oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 entries
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
ENTRY:1
i) Into Manfra: 301,024.934 oz
total deposit: 301,024.934 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
0 entries
adjustments 3; ALL CUSTOMER ACCT TO DEALER ACCT
a) Asahi: 242,085.200 oz
b) CNT 519,721.540 oz
c) Delaware: 120,507.438 oz
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TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 92.604 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 322.536 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JUNE
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2026 OI: 7422 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 1122 CONTRACTS.
THUS BY DEFINITION THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLLING TO STAND IS AS FOLLOWS
7422 NOTICES XX 5000 OZ PER NOTICE
EQUALS
37.110 MILLION OZ.
I PROMISED YOU 30 MILLION OZ SO AGAIN WE HAD A MUCH BIGGER STANDING FOR THIS MAJOR DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY FOR SILVER.
AUGUST SAW A GAIN 0F 258 CONTRACTS UP TO 1951…
SEPTEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 1813 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 80.119 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 4775 or 23.875 OZ oz
CONFIRMED volume MONDAY; 40,847// poor//
XXX
AND NOW JUNE. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4775 X5,000 oz = 23.875 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(7422) AND the number of notices served upon today (4775 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY 2026 contract month: (4775 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY ( 7422) minus number of notices served upon today (4775)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JULY..contract month equating to 37.110 MILLION OZ. (a very strong delivery month)
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 92.604 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 137.898/322.536 million: 42.75%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
JUNE 30 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $2.85 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JUNE 29 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $58.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.223 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD // ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JUNE 26 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $49.10 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.287 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD // ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.350 TONNES
JUNE 25 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.637 TONNES
JUNE 24 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $141.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.563 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/./ //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.637 TONNES
JUNE 19 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $36.85 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.421 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/./ //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1020.49 TONNES
JUNE 18 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $135.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.856 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/./ //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.069 TONNES
JUNE 17 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $20.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.427 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/./ //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1012.213 TONNES
JUNE 16 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 15 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $111.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 12 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $123.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 11 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.855 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 10 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $153.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.426 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.495 TONNES
JUNE 9 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $75.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.921 TONNES
JUNE 8 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.936 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.921 TONNES
JUNE 5 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $134;85 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.857 TONNES
JUNE 4 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $39.25 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.143 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.857 TONNES
JUNE 3 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $51.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.856 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.000 TONNES
JUNE 2 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $7.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.712 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.856 TONNES
JUNE 1 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $79.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.568 TONNES
MAY 29 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $59.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.285 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.568 TONNES
MAY 28 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $52.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.853 TONNES
MAY 27 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $51.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.853 TONNES
MAY 26 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $25.45 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.9988 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.853 TONNES
MAY 22 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.851 TONNES
MAY 21 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.851 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1005.077 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
JUNE 30 WITH SILVER UP $1.35: : HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.447 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.127 MILLION OZ
JUNE 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08: : HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.402 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.574 MILLION OZ
JUNE 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.86: : HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.352 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.976 MILLION OZ
JUNE 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.69: : SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 769,000 OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.624 MILLION OZ
JUNE 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.18: : SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 93,000 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.393 MILLION OZ
JUNE 19 WITH SILVER UP $1.11: : NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.302 MILLION OZ
JUNE 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.80: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.086 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV././ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.302 MILLION OZ
JUNE 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.79: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.388 MILLION OZ
JUNE 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.362 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.388 MILLION OZ
JUNE 15 WITH SILVER UP $3.25: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.357 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.026 MILLION OZ
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $3.34: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.769 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.383 MILLION OZ
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.226 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.152 MILLION OZ
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.50: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.909 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.378 MILLION OZ
JUNE 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.35: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.407 MILLION OZ INTO INTO THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.287 MILLION OZ
JUNE 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 543,000 OZ FROM THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.880 MILLION OZ
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.86: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.423 MILLION OZ
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER UP $0.52: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV >> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.432 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.423 MILLION OZ
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.55: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV >> /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.423 MILLION OZ
JUNE 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.25: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV >> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.2222 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.855 MILLION OZ
JUNE 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF 1.9 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.077 MILLION OZ
MAY 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.977 MILLION OZ
MAY 28 WITH SILVER UP $1.02: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.977 MILLION OZ
MAY 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.61: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.977 MILLION OZ
MAY 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.14: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.131 OF 0.315 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.153 MILLION OZ
MAY 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.022 MILLION OZ
MAY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.64: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.338 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 479.127 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD.\
3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT; 277
Maguire and Hemke say gold ‘correction’ is over and expect revaluation
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2026-06-22 11:56 Section: Daily Dispatches
11:56a ET Monday, June 22, 2025
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
London metals trader Andrew Maguire and the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke, in conversation on this week’s edition of Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program, agree that gold’s “correction” is over and speculate how a U.S. Treasury revaluation of the monetary metal to a much higher price may come about soon.
The program is 57 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
5. COMMODITY REPORT//GOLD/ROBERT LAMBOURNE:
Fwd: Gold price reset discussed
Chris and Harvey,
This piece from Substack was forwarded to me earlier.
It suggests an imminent gold price reset to $20,000.
This is probably not really enough in my view, but there are all sorts of things that possibly point towards something happening.
GOLD REVALUATION SIGNALS INTENSIFY: Hidden Central Bank Buying, $20K Pricing Clues, and Policy Shifts Converge
Evidence mounts as central banks accumulate gold off books, $20,000 signals emerge, and policymakers quietly prepare for a potential systemic reset in new global monetary order
Central banks accumulated an estimated 15.25 times more gold in Q1 2026 than officially reported
World Gold Council shows 244 tonnes vs just 16 tonnes disclosed, with the remainder visible in trade flows and vault movements.
Judy Shelton’s proposal for 50-year gold-convertible Treasury Trust Bonds targeted for a July 4, 2026 launch.
Donald Trump’s repeated public calls for a full physical audit of Fort Knox gold reserves. This is the part that scares us all. Firstly, anything Trump says is always highly suspicious. Secondly, who knows what the fiat overlords have done with the gold? Thirdly, with all the gold the USA steals from others (Iraq, Ukraine, Libya, Venezuela), I am in the camp that believes there is at least 2 to 3 times more gold there than rumored.
Gold Reserve Transparency Act (H.R. 3795) mandating periodic independent audits of U.S. gold holdings.
U.S. Mint 250th anniversary gold products (mintage 2,026) priced in a way many interpret as signaling dramatically higher gold valuations.
Surging open interest in deep out-of-the-money gold call options, including 20,000 dollar strike bets.
Treasury Secretary Bessent referencing monetization of the asset side of the U.S. balance sheet.
Federal Reserve research examining historical gold revaluation precedents across global monetary systems.
Continued large-scale institutional capital flows into gold alongside sustained central bank accumulation trends.
The $20,000 Signal
Gold’s recent move chopping from $4,000 to $4,500 has already pushed markets into unfamiliar territory, but a far more provocative signal is emerging beneath the surface: the appearance of $20,000 gold pricing in both official and derivatives markets.
A Coin… or a Clue?
The U.S. Mint’s release of a limited 250th anniversary gold coin priced near $20,000 has raised eyebrows. On its face, the premium appears extreme, even by collector standards. Yet at the same time, options markets are quietly seeing increased interest in 20,000 strike gold calls. This parallel is difficult to dismiss as coincidence.
For seasoned observers, the question is not whether gold is “worth” $20,000 but why multiple signals are converging around that number.
When Trust Starts to Shift
The answer may lie in a broader structural shift: a gradual erosion of trust in the global paper-based monetary system.
Central banks continue to accumulate gold at historic rates, while nations such as China, Russia, and others have accelerated efforts to repatriate physical reserves. Simultaneously, new settlement mechanisms are being developed outside traditional Western hubs like London and New York, emphasizing physical delivery rather than synthetic exposure.
Policy Winds Are Changing
Policy developments in the United States further reinforce this theme. Judy Shelton’s proposal for 50-year gold-convertible Treasury Trust Bonds, reportedly targeted for a July 4, 2026 launch, represents a direct attempt to re-anchor sovereign debt to hard assets. Calls from political figures, including Donald Trump, for a full audit of Fort Knox reserves have added to public scrutiny, while legislative efforts such as the Gold Reserve Transparency Act aim to formalize ongoing verification.
Treasury Secretary Bessent has also referenced monetizing the asset side of the U.S. balance sheet, a concept that implicitly raises the possibility of revaluing national gold holdings. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve research into historical gold revaluation episodes suggests that such a move is no longer unthinkable within policy circles.
Capital Is Already Moving
Institutional capital flows reflect the same shift. Large funds are increasing allocations to physical gold, while alternative reserve frameworks — including the newly established Strategic Bitcoin Reserve under the American Reserve Modernization Act of 2026 — indicate a broader transition toward hard and semi-hard assets.
Not a Prediction—A Positioning
In this context, the Mint’s $20,000 coin may not be a prediction, but a signal.
Not a declaration of current value, but a reflection of where monetary expectations could be heading under stress.
When confidence in paper assets weakens, capital historically migrates toward tangible stores of value. Gold absorbs that flow first. But as liquidity tightens and monetary regimes adjust, smaller markets often experience more dramatic repricing.
The Silver Undercurrent
Silver, long overshadowed, sits in precisely that position.
If gold’s revaluation becomes policy rather than speculation, the implications will extend far beyond a single commemorative coin or options trade. It would mark a fundamental shift in how value is defined, measured, and trusted.
And in that kind of transition, price is not just a number. It is a signal of where the system is going next.
This Is Not Noise
Not a “Nothing Burger”
Calling gold revaluation a “nothing burger” might feel safe—but it is also intellectually lazy.
Yes, skepticism toward political figures is warranted. Markets have been trained to roll their eyes, especially when bold numbers get thrown around. But at some point, reflexive dismissal becomes its own form of blindness.
Because let’s be clear: you do not accidentally list a U.S. Mint gold product near $20,000
That is not a novelty premium. That is not a marketing gimmick. That is a number chosen with intent.
And while critics debate headlines, something far more important is happening offstage.
The World Gold Council reported 244 tonnes of central bank buying in Q1.
Yet Central Bank Official disclosures were 16 tonnes.
The headline says 15 times more but the math is 15.25 more
so 228 tonnes of Gold not disclosed
Makes sense, I wouldn’t tell anyone if I had gold either
The answer has always been “What gold?”
So where did the rest go?
It moved quietly—through trade flows, through vault reallocations, through channels that do not require press releases or public confirmation.
Fifteen times more gold is being accumulated than admitted.
That is not a rounding error. That is a signal.
The same institutions responsible for managing the global monetary system are not treating gold like a relic. They are treating it like a strategic asset—one they want more of before the rules change.
So while some call it nothing…
central banks are acting like it is everything.
And that is the disconnect that matters.
Because when reality finally catches up to positioning, repricing does not happen gradually—it happens all at once.
You can dismiss the signal.
But you cannot dismiss the accumulation behind it.
Moral of the Story
BUY SILVER
When gold moves, it always brings her little sister silver along—then silver slingshots past gold. It reminds me of an old golfing joke from the 1990s: my playing partner in Albuquerque, Charles Weese, would outdrive me and then quietly say, with a confident chortle, “Linda Ronstadt,” a playful nod to Blue Bayou—because his drive had just blew past mine.
The meaning is simple and powerful: gold leads, silver follows, and then silver often roars past and steals the spotlight.
Silver’s outperformance was about 3.3x gold’s move, or roughly three to four times stronger. In your example, silver gained 430% versus gold’s 130%, so silver delivered about 300 percentage points more return and rose about 3.3 times as much.
Here are my top 5 silver bullion companies and why I rate them so highly: Not in any order, just as they randomly pop into my brain.
Eric Sprott isn’t just a massively successful silver investor; while many analysts suggest allocating 10–20% to precious metals, Eric has often been 95%+ in. That conviction is exactly what I’m talking about.
The media duo of Michelle Makori and Andy Schectman is astounding. I often joke with readers that if you ever miss a Silver Academy broadcast, just listen to Schectman the following day—he picks up on the majority of our breaking news. We lead with the written word while he dominates YouTube.
Their analyst James Anderson is brilliant. I’ve learned a great deal from him. He’s the legend who surfaced the Wikileaks cable revealing that the futures market was designed specifically to discourage investing in gold and silver—to demoralize investors and shake people out.
Do yourself a favor and find the Commodity Culture broadcast—Jesse Day’s show—featuring Ian Everard of Ark Silver. It’s one of the best interviews to date; this man truly knows his craft.
Stefan Gleason is a genius. His vault in Eagle, Idaho will be strategically important as we move deeper into dystopian times, offering a serious haven for sound money advocates. His leadership of the Sound Money Defense League—lobbying state by state to recognize gold and silver as money—alone makes him the USA’s most valuable player in the sound money movement.
Can’t go wrong with these 5 dealers and none have paid for this shout out. It’s just the right thing to do.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.50 PTS OR 0.50%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 145.66 PTS OR 0.63%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 594.21 PTS OR 0.86%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.36%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7855
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7913 Oil UP TO 70.60 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 73.98 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7855) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7913 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 6.7855
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.7913
1.HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 145.66 PTS OR 0.63%
2. Nikkei closed UP 594.21 PTS OR 0.86%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 70.60
BRENT; 73.98
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 101.15/// EURO FALLS TO 1.1395 DOWN 24 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.694 UP 6 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 162.37… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.964 UP 13 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP( 6.7855) AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.7913
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and BRENT UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields LOWER on all fronts in the EMU EXCEPT GERMANY. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.8946/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.578/ SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.335%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.517%
3j Gold at $4030.95 //Silver at: 59.06 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 AND 90/ 100 roubles/78.89
3m oil (WTI) into the 70 dollar handle for WTI and 73 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 162.37 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.695% UP 6 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.964 UP 13 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.8093 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9202
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.387 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.869 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.115 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 46.66 UP 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.7267 UP 1 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.436 UP 1 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.382 UP 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.009 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Stock Futures Flat As S&P Closes Out Best Quarter In 6 Years
Tuesday, Jun 30, 2026 – 08:38 AM
US index futures erased an earlier gain following some belligerent Iran headlines, but are still set to end a quarter that is set to be the S&P 500’s best in six years with markets behaving as though period-end dynamics have now completed. As of 8:30am, the S&P 500 was flat, pointing to a calm finish for the index that has surged 14% since the beginning of April. Nasdaq futures rose 0.1% erasing a sizable gain earlier, but on pace to close the quarter with a staggering 24% gain; In premarket trading, semis are mixed, Mag7 are flat, Cyclicals are generally leading Defensives with exceptions being Energy (lower) and Healthcare (higher). European stocks rallied, with gains led by Abivax SA after a clinical-trial update soothed investor concerns. Chipmakers drove Asian shares higher. JPM says with the major US holiday coming up, keep an eye on low liquidity moves in the region. Bond yields reversed an earlier drop to trade higher by 1bp pushing the 10Y yield to 4.39%. The USD is stronger, looking to erase all of yesterday’s losses. Commodities are stronger with crude flat into today’s US / Iran discussions, Metals seeing a bid, and Ags outperforming the other commodities complexes. Today’s economic data calendar includes April Case-Shiller home prices (9am), June MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers), June consumer confidence and May JOLTS job openings (10am) and June Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). Fed speaker slate empty for the session. Chairman Warsh participates in an ECB panel event on Wednesday in Sintra
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Alphabet +0.3%, Amazon +0.1%, Apple unchanged, Meta Platforms +0.3%, Microsoft +0.4%, Nvidia +0.8%, Tesla (TSLA) -0.9%).
AeroVironment (AVAV) soars 30% after the defense company reported fourth-quarter results that topped expectations and forecast 2027 revenue that at the midpoint exceeds estimates. Analysts note strength in its drones business.
Aevex (AVEX) climbs 12% after winning a $50 million contract from the US Air Force to continue expanding unmanned mission‑support capabilities for current operations.
Block (XYZ) inches about 1% higher after Piper Sandler upgraded the digital payments company by two notches to overweight, citing earnings potential.
Concentrix (CNXC) tumbles 23% after the call-center company slashed its full-year outlook. The company’s forecasts for reported revenue and adjusted earnings per share also undershot Wall Street’s expectations.
Patrick Industries (PATK) and LCI Industries (LCII) announced plans to combine in an all-stock merger. LCI shares are up 7%, while Patrick shares are halted.
Replimune (REPL) gains 6% after BMO Capital Markets upgraded the drug developer by two notches to outperform from underperform, citing a clearer regulatory path for the firm’s experimental treatment of advanced melanoma.
Space stocks were among the biggest US premarket gainers. Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. eased after Monday’s rally as Bitcoin dipped below $60,000. Microsoft Corp. was firmer, but still on course for its worst month since December 2000.
In other news, biotech company Abivax reported positive ABTECT maintenance part two results for experimental bowel disease drug Obefazimod. Susquehanna is attempting to identify individuals it claims made at least $100 million trading on inside information about a Chinese government crackdown on cross-border brokerages. Millennium will back a new quant hedge fund firm led by former Citadel researcher Paul Dou. Taiwan government agencies raided the offices of Super Micro Computer and several local affiliates as part of an investigation into the alleged smuggling of Nvidia chips into China. Blackstone is selling its stakes in a trio of data centers across Northern Virginia for $3.5 billion, cashing out of part of a bet it made less than three years ago.
Global stocks cemented gains ahead of another strong earnings season that analysts say will be driven by the debt-fueled investment boom in artificial intelligence. A strong macro backdrop will offer added support as falling oil prices help keep worries about inflationary pressures in check.
“US futures are being supported by renewed demand for tech, with investors returning to the view that IT offers one of the few strong and reliable earnings-growth stories,” said Marija Veitmane, head of equity research at State Street Global Markets. “That makes any jitters in tech look like a buying opportunity, and I think that is what we are seeing after last week’s wobble.”
Investors will keep a close watch on peace talks scheduled for Tuesday after Iran reiterated its determination to control maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices remain an important part of the inflation outlook, with the Federal Reserve expected to hike interest rates as soon as September.
“The decline in oil prices suggests concerns around energy-driven inflation are largely behind us, but if AI-driven inflation from memory costs starts to materialize over the next two to three months, that will be important,” said Paisley Nardini at Simplify Asset Management. “The other risk is whether cracks start to emerge in the consumer.”
Elsewhere, US technology shares are at risk of declines as overall investor exposure to the cohort is extremely elevated, according to Citigroup strategists. Following last week’s price hikes by Microsoft and Apple, rising costs and component shortages are said to be leading to China’s smartphone brands slashing targets, according to the Nikkei.
“So far there are no signs of profit margins rising outside the tech sector. This is ultimately what we are waiting for, because the value of AI companies today rests entirely on the promise that margins in the S&P 493 will eventually climb,” noted Torsten Slok, chief economist of Apollo Global Management, referring to S&P 500 stocks beyond the Mag 7.
The outlook for US earnings momentum, according to a recent Citigroup indicator, remains positive. AI continues to make an outsize contribution with 44 AI companies projected to contribute around 60% to overall S&P 500 earnings growth across calendar 2026, growing earnings at roughly 40.7% — triple the rate of the rest of the S&P 500, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Nathaniel T Welnhofer recently noted.
In politics, Trump refused to commit to signing a major bipartisan housing bill, heightening uncertainty over the fate of the legislation. The Supreme Court has given Trump the power to fire the heads of independent agencies, overturning a 91-year-old precedent that said agencies must be independent of the president. Billionaire venture capitalist Marc Andreessen got a spot on a top Pentagon advisory board.
European stocks rallied in early Tuesday trading, poised for their best quarter since late 2020 as investors bet on an improved outlook for economic growth, with the Stoxx 600 benchmark set for a jump of nearly 10% in the past three months. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
Abivax shares jump as much as 32%, the most since January, after a clinical-trial update soothed some investors’ concerns about whether cancer could be a potential side effect of the French biotech’s most promising experimental drug
Genmab shares rise as much as 7.9% after the Danish biotech company reported positive late-stage trial results for its Epkinly drug combination in patients with relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma
Siemens gains as much as 3.3%, the most in two weeks, as analysts updated their estimates ahead of the German industrial group’s third-quarter earnings, due on Aug. 6, expecting a strong print from the company
ITM Power shares rise as much as 19% after Berenberg raised its price target on the green-hydrogen equipment maker by 82%, citing a “significant growth opportunity” in its partnership with Rheinmetall
Truecaller gains as much as 13% as DNB Carnegie reiterated its buy recommendation and raised its price target on the caller-ID company, saying its upcoming second-quarter report “should mark another step in Truecaller’s recovery”
Maersk shares gains as much as 5.4%, the most in almost three weeks, after the Danish shipping group upgraded its full-year outlook. While the news is a positive, its seen as broadly anticipated by analysts
Sainsbury’s shares rise as much as 3.5%, the most in seven months, after the British retailer reported 1Q sales that were in line with consensus expectations, avoiding the underperformance of its peer Tesco
Kering shares slid as much as 5.4% on Tuesday, as analysts caution the luxury goods maker’s 1H earnings report is likely to show the turnaround at key brand Gucci remains gradual
Teleperformance shares fall as much as 13% after Concentrix, a US peer of the French call-center operator, slashed its full-year outlook, with forecasts for reported revenue and adjusted EPS missing expectations
Logitech shares fall as much as 4.9% after Bank of America downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral, seeing “demand destruction” for the Swiss firms’ computer peripherals due to price increases in consumer electronics
Asian stocks rose for a second day, driven by gains in technology shares as investors rebalanced portfolios at the end of the quarter. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.5%, bringing its gain for the three months through June to 21%, the strongest quarterly advance since 2009. Japan’s tech-heavy Nikkei 225 marked its biggest ever quarterly advance, while South Korea’s Kospi index posted its best three-month period since 1998. In contrast, the MSCI China index has fallen for a third quarter. Taiwan’s Taiex index was among best performers in the region on Tuesday, with TSMC and MediaTek leading gains after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3.8%. Stocks in Japan and South Korea rose. Offshore Chinese stocks continued to lose momentum, with the Hang Seng Index near a technical bear territory. MSCI China has tumbled about 15% this year, amid concerns over a sluggish economy, weak earnings from internet giants and investors’ preference for chipmakers elsewhere in Asia.
The region’s stocks continue to outperform global peers this year, underpinned by the enthusiasm in artificial intelligence. Chipmakers and hardware suppliers across markets such as Taiwan, Japan and South Korea have rallied as investors chase earnings growth and visibility to the AI buildout, while markets like India and China continue to struggle due to the lack of AI exposure.
“Asia is ending the first half with a selective risk-on tone: Taiwan and Japan are carrying the optimism built over the past few months, while weakness in China, Hong Kong and India shows investors are still cautious about markets without a clear AI, earnings or policy-support catalyst,” said Hebe Chen, a market analyst at Vantage Global Prime in Sydney.
In FX, the yen slid to its weakest level against the dollar since 1986, extending its recent losses to weaken beyond 162 against the dollar, a milestone that will generate unease in Japan and put traders on alert for authorities intervening in the market. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan will respond to developments in foreign exchange at any time.
In rates, treasuries are mixed ahead of a reading of US job openings for May. Bloomberg Economics expects the JOLTS report to show declining vacancies and a low quits rate. While hiring is supporting personal income growth, wage pressures are likely to remain rather muted. Yields were within a basis point of Monday’s closing levels, after plying small ranges during Asia session and London morning. European bonds provide support after German state inflation gauges slowed in June. US 10-year yields around 4.37% are marginally richer on the day, and curve spreads are likewise little changed; bunds and gilts trade broadly in line with Treasuries. WTI crude oil futures, little changed, also support Treasuries as they head for biggest quarterly decline since the pandemic. IG dollar issuance slate includes four names so far. Four Yankee banks led a $17.2b US investment-grade new issue docket Monday. Borrowers paid about 3bp in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.5 times oversubscribed. Treasury coupon issuance resumes next week with 3-, 10- and 30-year tenors. Focal points of US session include a swath of economic data headed by consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings.
“The next validation point is now macro,” said Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. “JOLTS, consumer confidence, ISM and payrolls need to show enough labor resilience to keep the earnings momentum up, but not so much strength that the real-yield ceiling comes back immediately.”
In commodities, oil is headed for the biggest quarterly decline since the pandemic. Brent crude fell 0.3% to about $73 a barrel as flows through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated. Morgan Stanley analysts cut their oil price forecasts for the second time in about two weeks on a faster-than-expected supply rebound, while strong US supply and weak Chinese demand raise the risk of a glut.
Today’s US economic data calendar includes April FHFA house price index and S&P Cotality CS home prices (9am), June MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers), June consumer confidence and May JOLTS job openings (10am) and June Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). Fed speaker slate empty for the session. Chairman Warsh participates in an ECB panel event on Wednesday in Sintra
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
US and Iranian officials are set to hold peace negotiations in Doha today, but uncertainty hangs over the meeting. Donald Trump declined to say whether he expected a breakthrough and Iran has yet to confirm it’ll attend. Iran reiterated its determination to maintain control over maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. BBG
The unexpectedly rapid retreat in energy prices in the past week has further taken pressure off European Central Bank policymakers to lift interest rates next month but the case for a small hike later on remains firm, four sources told Reuters. RTRS
China’s manufacturing activity expanded in June after remaining flat last month, thanks in part to resilient exports amid robust global demand for artificial-intelligence and green products. The official manufacturing purchasing managers index edged up to 50.3 this month from May’s 50.0. WSJ
China has lifted some restrictions on oil-product exports in the past week, rolling back measures introduced to safeguard domestic supplies shortly after the war began in the Middle East. BBG
Political pressure on the BoJ to slow its interest rate hikes is growing amid a push by Sanae Takaichi’s government to restore dovish policymakers to the bank, a shake-up that could change its long-term policy direction. RTRS
French and Italian inflation cooled more than expected in June, suggesting price pressures are beginning to soften amid falling energy costs due to easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran. WSJ
US retailers have brought forward orders from China by four-to-six weeks to secure their inventories for Black Friday and Christmas holiday sales before expected tariff hikes later this year, shipping executives said. RTRS
Companies investing most heavily in AI are adding workers faster than their peers, according to new research that challenges predictions of broad AI-driven job losses. FT
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said knock-on effects from higher energy prices will take a while to show up and that policymakers won’t lock themselves into a rates path. BBG
US House Speaker Johnson said no veto is expected for the housing legislation and that the housing bill will become law, while he noted that President Trump has yet to decide on signing the bipartisan housing package: POLITICO.
Iran News
US President Trump’s envoys Kushner and Witkoff are flying to Doha for talks, while Iran said the Doha mission is focused on ceasefire compliance and is not there for talks with the US, according to NYT.
US Secretary of State Rubio said at a Congress briefing that there is a possibility the nuclear talks with Iran may fail, while he also stated that Iran has not yet received any funds under the MoU.
Iranian President Pezeshkian said “Understanding is a bilateral matter. If the American side adheres to the memorandum of understanding, we will also fulfil our obligations”, while he said their approach to unreasonable boasting and unfounded threats is to rely on rationality and human dignity in decision-making and to defend themselves decisively and fearlessly when taking action.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said if they do not reach an understanding with Oman on the routes and arrangements of the Strait of Hormuz, they will, in any case, implement Iran’s new sovereignty and policy in the Strait of Hormuz, while he added that they do not guarantee the safety and security of ships passing through parallel routes in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s acting Defence Minister al-Reza said we do not trust the enemy and our hands are on the trigger in the event of any ceasefire violations, will take appropriate and necessary action.
The framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon has reportedly caused a rift in Iran-Lebanon relations, with Iranian FM Araghchi refusing to visit Lebanon, according to Kan’s Kais citing a Lebanese newspaper.
An explosion was reported in southern Lebanon, which was carried out by Israeli forces, while it was also reported that Israeli forces conducted a strike on town of Deir Sryan in southern Lebanon and that Israeli attacks on Gaza left 48 dead and wounded, according to Tasnim and Mehr News Agency.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mixed with choppy price action seen overnight heading into quarter-end, despite the gains in the US, where the DJIA notched a record close, and the Nasdaq outperformed amid strength in tech and communications. ASX 200 traded little changed amid mixed performances of its sectors and after the RBA minutes from the June meeting continued to affirm a hawkish stance. It stated that policy needed to remain restrictive and the RBA will do what is needed to achieve price stability, including raising rates if necessary. Nikkei 225 ultimately rallied, but initially swung between gains and losses, with the index fluctuating through the 70k level, amid a weaker currency, FX intervention risks, and disappointing Industrial Production. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged as a rebound in tech stocks was counterbalanced by losses in miners and energy majors, while they also failed to benefit from better-than-expected PMI data and another PBoC overnight repo operation.
Top Asian News
Japanese Finance Minister Katayama won’t comment on specific effects levels, but said they will respond appropriately to currency moves at any time as needed, while she added that action could include decisive action as agreed in the joint statement with the US.
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said he won’t comment on FX levels, but added that they are always ready to take necessary action on FX.
Decision on reducing Japan’s consumption tax on food products has been postponed until July due to pushback from the opposition parties, according to TBS.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.8%) begin the last day of Q2 entirely in the green, with outperformance in the DAX 40 (+1.1%) and AEX (+0.7%). Many indices are set to have their biggest quarterly gain since the end of 2022, with the STOXX 600 just shy of 10% gains for Q2. Focusing on Germany’s DAX, analysts see possible continued underperformance, with any flare-up in EU-China tensions posing a further headwind. Its auto sector has been particularly affected in recent months, with China playing a key role in that narrative.- European sectors highlight the positive bias. Basic Resources (+2.1%), Technology (+1.3%) and Industrial Goods & Services (+1.6%) are the outperformers, while Consumer Products & Services (-0.9%), Food, Beverages & Tobacco (-0.4%) and Telecoms (-0.3%) are the only sectors printing modest losses.
Top European News
UK Government announced a GBP 15bln defence package.
FX
Snapshot: G10s are lower against the USD to varying degrees. The CHF, EUR and JPY are all the laggards this morning, to the tune of c. 0.3%, whilst the Antipodeans are faring a little better vs peers.
DXY is firmer this morning and trades at the upper end of a 101.12 to 101.42 range. No real driver this morning for the index, but comes amidst a tense geopolitical risk-tone and ahead of key US data. The slight strength today can also be explained as a bit of a bounce back, after recent USD strength has faded a touch off recent highs. The high from Monday (101.07) was breached this morning, whereby another bout of strength could see a test of Friday’s high (101.57) and Thursday’s best (101.74).
EUR/USD is amongst the worst performers this morning, as markets digest the sheer amount of ECB speakers at Sintra. Overall, the bias has been hawkish; namely, President Lagarde and Chief Economist Lane have highlighted that the oil price curve remains elevated, and that could suggest higher costs for the economy. Nonetheless, policymakers have broadly reiterated data dependency and avoided any pre-commitment to July/September. On that front, Reuters sources suggested that given recent energy dynamics, September is now seen as more likely than July for another hike; the source clarified that a rate hike is not off the agenda. As it stands, money markets assign a 32% chance of a hike in July and a 70% chance of a move in September.
On the data front, the EUR has had dovish German State CPI metrics to contend with. Broadly speaking they are indicative of a cooler Y/Y print, despite mainland consensus for the headline remaining at 2.6%.
JPY is also amongst the laggards. Overnight, the pair jumped above the 162.00 mark, amidst commentary from Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara. He initially suggested that he would not comment on FX, which saw the pair breach 162.00. However, a few minutes later, he stated that they are always ready to take necessary action on Forex. The move largely unwound on that jawboning attempt. Thereafter, Finance Minister Katayama also commented. She warned that they will respond appropriately to currency moves at any time as needed, while action could include decisive action as agreed in the joint statement with the US. USD/JPY currently holds within a 161.89-162.41 range.
Fixed Income
Global fixed income benchmarks are firmer across the board, helped by softer energy prices, but also supported by cooler inflation prints in the EZ.
Bund (+13 ticks) upside initially came following the French inflation data, in which HICP softened to 2%, below the expected 2.4% and from the prior 2.8%. This followed the Spanish print on Monday, which came in slightly hotter-than-expected, but saw relief after the core figure cooled. The German state CPIs can give further relief for the ECB, after prices broadly cooled in all states. This comes ahead of the nationwide figure later today; HICP is expected to hold at 2.7%.
Many ECB policymakers were also on the wires this morning at the sidelines of Sintra. President Lagarde kicked off the Sintra conference on Monday. Even though her comments sounded slightly hawkish, it seemed to be an unwind of her dovish stance when she spoke last week in a way to keep all options on the table. Lane was the first GC member to speak today, in which he highlighted that the oil price curve is seen elevated in the coming years, which suggests higher economic costs.
USTs (+2+ ticks) follow its German counterpart higher, albeit to a lesser extent, with focus this week being on comments by Fed Chair Warsh at Sintra on Wednesday and the US jobs report on Thursday.
JGBs (-3 ticks) traded on the softer side in the Asia-Pac seen, however there was some relief following the 2-year JGB auction. The b/c was 4.82x, which was higher than the prior 3.70x and above the 12-month average of 3.74x. The strong auction was also backed by a small price tail. Despite the strong auction, investors remain concerned about further BoJ hikes, and perhaps more aggressively, to stabilise the Yen (USD/JPY recently topped 162.40).
Japan sells JPY 2.15tln 2-year JGBs b/c 4.82 (prev. 3.70), average yield 1.407% (prev. 1.369%).
Commodities
Crude benchmarks are firmer, posting gains of around USD 0.10/bbl at highs of USD 70.88/bbl and USD 74.08/bbl for WTI and Brent, respectively.
In brief, we await any information relating to or stemming from the Doha talks. US envoys Kushner and Witkoff are travelling to Doha. However, Iran has made clear it will not be holding talks with the US “at any level” in the next few days, with the Doha gathering to only discuss ceasefire compliance. Albeit, sources via Pakistani journalist Mallick suggest that talks could occur via Pakistani/Qatari mediators.
Spot gold firmer, but only marginally so. Overnight, pressure was seen alongside a jump in USD/JPY (see FX/morning JPY update for details), action that was exacerbated by a breach of the USD 4000/oz mark to the downside. Sending XAU to a USD 3942/oz base.
In the first part of the European morning this unwound, with XAU climbing back above USD 4k/oz and hitting a USD 4037/oz peak in short order. There wasn’t a specific or fresh fundamental driver behind this, though the move did take place alongside a modest uptick in the fixed income space, marginal downside in energy and a moderation of the performance of both European and US equity futures.
Base metals in focus after the EU increased tariffs on steel. The move will reduce the duty-free import level by an average of 47%. Following the move, an official cited by the FT outlined that the EU hopes to create a “steel club” with the US and others, in order to reduce trade barriers. Broadly, base metals are firmer, reflecting the risk tone and despite the firmer USD.
US President Trump posted “Gasoline Retailers must get their Prices down, IMMEDIATELY! They’re too high considering that Oil is now at $68 a Barrel, and heading south. The Retailers must quickly react to this statement, and do what they know is right”.
Shell (SHEL LN) expects LNG demand to increase by around 65% by 2050, largely driven by APAC nations.
China is said to be easing some refinery fuel export restrictions as domestic supply is ample, according to reports.
Morgan Stanley slashes its Q3 dated Brent forecast by USD 15 to USD 75/bbl as supply returns through Hormuz.
Trade/Tariffs
USTR posted that the US welcomes Switzerland’s progress in implementing elements of a historic Framework Agreement, while it was stated that they will continue to work towards the conclusion of an agreement on fair, balanced, and reciprocal trade that will further remove non-tariff barriers.
China and the EU agreed to maintain global supply chain stability, continue consultations on trade, and solve some intellectual property issues, while China and the EU exchanged market access lists.
EU declared new rule to protect EU steel. The EU’s steel measure, which enters into application on 1 July 2026, reduces duty-free imports of 26 categories of steel products into the EU by an average of 47% as compared with the quotas under steel safeguard.
White House announced temporary suspension of duties on fertilizer from Morocco, according to a Fact Sheet
Central Banks
ECB’s Lane said there has been some improvement in confidence, but not at pre-war levels. He added that the oil price curve sees elevated levels in the years coming, which suggest higher cost for the economy. On the ECB’s rate path, he said July vs September is too narrow a debate but aiming to keep options open by not boxing themselves into a specific meeting.
ECB’s Nagel said it is too early make rate hike calls but rate policy has to stay vigilant as inflation may stay significantly above target.
ECB’s Wunsch said we might need another hike and would rather move quickly if the ECB needs another hike. A quick ECB move does not necessarily mean a July move.
ECB’s Sleijpen said while oil prices have come down, there is still a lot of uncertainty and reiterated the ECB’s data-dependent approach.
ECB sources said a rapid oil price retreat eases pressure on the ECB to hike in July and September is seen as more likely, although a June inflation surprise could reignite talk of a July hike, while sources added that a rate hike is not off the agenda even though it may be delayed, according to Reuters.
BoJ’s Sato said the de-escalation of the Middle East conflict is a welcoming move but uncertainty remains on outlook.
RBA Minutes from the June meeting stated that policy needed to remain restrictive and it will do what is needed to achieve price stability, including raising rates if necessary. The Board saw merit in using the room created by earlier hikes to assess how the economy was faring and noted that leaving rates unchanged would best balance inflation and jobs objectives. Furthermore, it stated that the economy was operating with excess demand and broad-based price pressure, as well as noted that the Middle East conflict still posed material upside risks to inflation and downside risks to activity.
Geopolitics
Russia reported it shot down 419 Ukrainian drones overnight.
US Event Calendar
9:00 am: Apr FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.15%, prior 0.1%
9:45 am: Jun MNI Chicago PMI, est. 55.1, prior 62.7
10:00 am: Jun Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 94.4, prior 93.1
10:00 am: May JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7295.5k, prior 7618k
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As we hit the last day of the first half of the year, markets in Asia are largely continuing trends seen in the year and quarter to date. The KOSPI (+3.23%) is leading gains and remains on track for an impressive quarterly rise of over 65% and exceeding 105% YTD. Japan’s Nikkei (+1.70%) is also notably higher, now more than 37% higher for the quarter. Elsewhere the CSI (+1.12%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.20%) are also up but the Hang Seng (-1.19%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.08%) are lower. Minutes from the RBA’s June meeting indicated that policymakers remain cautious about inflation and will continue to evaluate incoming data before making policy adjustments. S&P (+0.14%) and Nasdaq (+0.44%) futures are higher as I type.
In China, manufacturing activity in June slightly exceeded forecasts, supported by strong export demand and continued investment in artificial intelligence. The official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, above expectations of 50.1, and up from 50.0 in May. Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing PMI improved to 50.2, surpassing the 49.9 forecast and edging up from 50.1 previously, signaling modest improvement in services activity despite overall subdued demand.
The Japanese yen has weakened further overnight even with officials commenting that intervention could happen at any time. Over the last 24 hours it’s fallen to its lowest level against the US dollar since 1986, closing at 161.94 last night and now trading at 162.40 this morning. So historic times for Japan.
Ahead of all this, markets saw a decent risk-on move yesterday, as a recovery in tech stocks helped to lift US equities more broadly. So the Magnificent 7 (+2.58%) bounced back, which meant the S&P 500 (+1.18%) finally ended a run of 5 consecutive declines. Indeed, with just one day of Q2 left, the S&P is on the verge of its best quarterly performance in six years, back when the index was bouncing back sharply from the pandemic slump. Those moves yesterday included a big advance for Tesla (+8.46%), Alphabet (+4.79%) and Amazon (+3.20%). And the Philly semiconductor index (+3.83%) rebounded after posting its worst week since the post-Liberation Day sell-off last April. It was a more mixed day for the rest of the US stock market, but both the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+0.18%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.01%) still inched up to new record highs. And over in Europe, equities were basically flat, with the STOXX 600 up +0.04%. European futures are around +0.6% higher this morning.
Perhaps the biggest story yesterday was news on Fed independence, as the US Supreme Court voted 5-4 that Fed Governor Lisa Cook could remain in post while fighting Trump’s attempt to remove her over allegations of mortgage fraud, ruling that the President could not remove her without proof of wrongdoing. It’s worth noting that’s not the end of the story, as they didn’t rule on whether Trump could fire Cook if the allegations were found to be true, but it means she can stay in post for now.
On the broader legal backdrop, the Court also ruled separately that the President can remove senior officials at other independent agencies without needing to meet the longstanding “for cause” standard, effectively overturning a 91-year precedent. In practical terms, that tilts the balance of power back towards the executive, giving the White House greater scope to replace officials across much of the regulatory apparatus. The carve out for the Fed therefore looks quite deliberate, reinforcing its unique independent status, but it also raises the stakes around how durable that distinction proves over time. If anything, it points to a more uncertain institutional backdrop, where independence can no longer be taken as a given across the wider policy framework—even if the Fed remains insulated for now.
Elsewhere, oil prices picked back up yesterday as they reacted to the weekend strikes that took place between the US and Iran, even if the weekend ended in a better place than it started with a halt to tit-for-tat strikes agreed by both sides late on Sunday night. So Brent crude (+1.61%) rose from its 4-month low on Friday, closing at $73.15/bbl, with WTI (+2.20%) back up to $70.75/bbl. That oil move also came as Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said that Tehran will control maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz with or without Oman. Otherwise, further meetings are set to take place today, with Trump posting that Iran had requested a meeting that would take place in Doha. And separately, Axios reported that the US’ Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner would be travelling to Doha to meet today with the Qatari PM and other officials. They also reported that the US and Iranian technical teams would meet separately with the Qatari and Pakistani mediators. That uptick in oil prices meant inflation concerns crept back in a bit yesterday on both sides of the Atlantic. So the US 1yr inflation swap (+4.5bps) was back up to 2.14%, from a 20-month low on Friday. And in turn, investors priced in a more hawkish path for the Fed, with the amount of hikes priced by the December meeting up +1.4bps on the day to 33bps. So that led to another rise in Treasury yields, with the 2yr yield (+1.4bps) up to 4.11%, whilst the 10yr yield (+0.5bps) moved up to 4.38%.
Meanwhile in the Euro Area, there was a similar pickup in bond yields across the continent. That was partly because of the oil move, but we also started to get the flash CPI prints for June, with Spain’s release surprising on the upside yesterday. It showed CPI unexpectedly remaining +3.6% (vs. +3.4% expected), which added to concerns that the other prints might come in on the stronger side too, and that the ECB would need to keep hiking rates. Indeed, market pricing moved in a slightly hawkish direction, with 27bps of hikes now priced by the December meeting, up +2.6bps on the day. And in turn, yields on 2yr bunds (+2.1bps) moved higher, while those across 10yr bunds (+0.7bps), OATs (+0.5bps) and BTPs (-0.4bps) were more stable.
Here in the UK, gilts were a relative outperformer, with the 10yr yield falling -1.5bps to 4.72%. That came as the favourite to be next PM, Andy Burnham, delivered a speech outlining some of his plans, which included a commitment to stick to the current fiscal rules. So that reassured investors who were concerned about looser fiscal policy, and there was also some underwhelming UK data as well. For instance, mortgage approvals for May fell more than expected to 56.2k (vs. 63.0k expected), which is their lowest since December 2023.
Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the flash June CPI prints from Germany, France, and Italy, along with German unemployment for June. Meanwhile, US releases include the JOLTS report for May, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for June, and the FHFA’s house price index for April. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Vujcic, Elderson, Schnabel, Cipollone and Lane, along with the BoE’s Breeden. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Nike.
1b European opening report
NQ set to end Q2 with gains of 24%; Markets await US-Iran talks in Doha – Newsquawk US Market Open
Tuesday, Jun 30, 2026 – 06:10 AM
US President Trump’s envoys Kushner and Witkoff are flying to Doha for talks; Iran believes the trip is focused on ceasefire compliance, and is not there for talks with the US, NYT reported.
US equity futures are slightly firmer (NQ +0.1%) and set for their biggest quarterly gain in 6 years.
DXY strengthens, lifting USD/JPY firmly above 162.00; EUR weakness helped by cooler French and German State CPIs.
Fixed income benchmarks higher but off best levels, with a busy central bank speaker slate ahead.
Crude benchmarks dip again despite uncertainty over US-Iran talks in Doha.
Looking ahead, highlights include German Inflation Prelim. (Jun), Canadian GDP (Apr), US JOLTs (May), Speakers include ECB’s Schnabel, Cipollone, Rehn & Lane, BoE’s Breeden, Earnings from Nike.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.8%) begin the last day of Q2 entirely in the green, with outperformance in the DAX 40 (+1.1%) and AEX (+0.7%). Many indices are set to have their biggest quarterly gain since the end of 2022, with the STOXX 600 just shy of 10% gains for Q2. Focusing on Germany’s DAX, analysts see possible continued underperformance, with any flare-up in EU-China tensions posing a further headwind. Its auto sector has been particularly affected in recent months, with China playing a key role in that narrative.- European sectors highlight the positive bias. Basic Resources (+2.1%), Technology (+1.3%) and Industrial Goods & Services (+1.6%) are the outperformers, while Consumer Products & Services (-0.9%), Food, Beverages & Tobacco (-0.4%) and Telecoms (-0.3%) are the only sectors printing modest losses.
US equity futures are also firmer across the board, with the NQ’s Q2 gains in excess of 24%. The tech/AI story has been the key part of the move higher in recent months and is set to remain a key fundamental driver in the coming months.
Snapshot: G10s are lower against the USD to varying degrees. The CHF, EUR and JPY are all the laggards this morning, to the tune of c. 0.3%, whilst the Antipodeans are faring a little better vs peers.
DXY is firmer this morning and trades at the upper end of a 101.12 to 101.42 range. No real driver this morning for the index, but comes amidst a tense geopolitical risk-tone and ahead of key US data. The slight strength today can also be explained as a bit of a bounce back, after recent USD strength has faded a touch off recent highs. The high from Monday (101.07) was breached this morning, whereby another bout of strength could see a test of Friday’s high (101.57) and Thursday’s best (101.74).
EUR/USD is amongst the worst performers this morning, as markets digest the sheer amount of ECB speakers at Sintra. Overall, the bias has been hawkish; namely, President Lagarde and Chief Economist Lane have highlighted that the oil price curve remains elevated, and that could suggest higher costs for the economy. Nonetheless, policymakers have broadly reiterated data dependency and avoided any pre-commitment to July/September. On that front, Reuters sources suggested that given recent energy dynamics, September is now seen as more likely than July for another hike; the source clarified that a rate hike is not off the agenda. As it stands, money markets assign a 32% chance of a hike in July and a 70% chance of a move in September.
On the data front, the EUR has had dovish German State CPI metrics to contend with. Broadly speaking they are indicative of a cooler Y/Y print, despite mainland consensus for the headline remaining at 2.6%.
JPY is also amongst the laggards. Overnight, the pair jumped above the 162.00 mark, amidst commentary from Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara. He initially suggested that he would not comment on FX, which saw the pair breach 162.00. However, a few minutes later, he stated that they are always ready to take necessary action on Forex. The move largely unwound on that jawboning attempt. Thereafter, Finance Minister Katayama also commented. She warned that they will respond appropriately to currency moves at any time as needed, while action could include decisive action as agreed in the joint statement with the US. USD/JPY currently holds within a 161.89-162.41 range.
FIXED INCOME
Global fixed income benchmarks are firmer across the board, helped by softer energy prices, but also supported by cooler inflation prints in the EZ.
Bund (+13 ticks) upside initially came following the French inflation data, in which HICP softened to 2%, below the expected 2.4% and from the prior 2.8%. This followed the Spanish print on Monday, which came in slightly hotter-than-expected, but saw relief after the core figure cooled. The German state CPIs can give further relief for the ECB, after prices broadly cooled in all states. This comes ahead of the nationwide figure later today; HICP is expected to hold at 2.7%.
Many ECB policymakers were also on the wires this morning at the sidelines of Sintra. President Lagarde kicked off the Sintra conference on Monday. Even though her comments sounded slightly hawkish, it seemed to be an unwind of her dovish stance when she spoke last week in a way to keep all options on the table. Lane was the first GC member to speak today, in which he highlighted that the oil price curve is seen elevated in the coming years, which suggests higher economic costs.
USTs (+2+ ticks) follow its German counterpart higher, albeit to a lesser extent, with focus this week being on comments by Fed Chair Warsh at Sintra on Wednesday and the US jobs report on Thursday.
JGBs (-3 ticks) traded on the softer side in the Asia-Pac seen, however there was some relief following the 2-year JGB auction. The b/c was 4.82x, which was higher than the prior 3.70x and above the 12-month average of 3.74x. The strong auction was also backed by a small price tail. Despite the strong auction, investors remain concerned about further BoJ hikes, and perhaps more aggressively, to stabilise the Yen (USD/JPY recently topped 162.40).
Japan sells JPY 2.15tln 2-year JGBs b/c 4.82 (prev. 3.70), average yield 1.407% (prev. 1.369%).
COMMODITIES
Crude benchmarks are firmer, posting gains of around USD 0.10/bbl at highs of USD 70.88/bbl and USD 74.08/bbl for WTI and Brent, respectively.
In brief, we await any information relating to or stemming from the Doha talks. US envoys Kushner and Witkoff are travelling to Doha. However, Iran has made clear it will not be holding talks with the US “at any level” in the next few days, with the Doha gathering to only discuss ceasefire compliance. Albeit, sources via Pakistani journalist Mallick suggest that talks could occur via Pakistani/Qatari mediators.
Spot gold firmer, but only marginally so. Overnight, pressure was seen alongside a jump in USD/JPY (see FX/morning JPY update for details), action that was exacerbated by a breach of the USD 4000/oz mark to the downside. Sending XAU to a USD 3942/oz base.
In the first part of the European morning this unwound, with XAU climbing back above USD 4k/oz and hitting a USD 4037/oz peak in short order. There wasn’t a specific or fresh fundamental driver behind this, though the move did take place alongside a modest uptick in the fixed income space, marginal downside in energy and a moderation of the performance of both European and US equity futures.
Base metals in focus after the EU increased tariffs on steel. The move will reduce the duty-free import level by an average of 47%. Following the move, an official cited by the FT outlined that the EU hopes to create a “steel club” with the US and others, in order to reduce trade barriers. Broadly, base metals are firmer, reflecting the risk tone and despite the firmer USD.
US President Trump posted “Gasoline Retailers must get their Prices down, IMMEDIATELY! They’re too high considering that Oil is now at $68 a Barrel, and heading south. The Retailers must quickly react to this statement, and do what they know is right”.
Shell (SHEL LN) expects LNG demand to increase by around 65% by 2050, largely driven by APAC nations.
China is said to be easing some refinery fuel export restrictions as domestic supply is ample, according to reports.
Morgan Stanley slashes its Q3 dated Brent forecast by USD 15 to USD 75/bbl as supply returns through Hormuz.
TRADE/TARIFFS
USTR posted that the US welcomes Switzerland’s progress in implementing elements of a historic Framework Agreement, while it was stated that they will continue to work towards the conclusion of an agreement on fair, balanced, and reciprocal trade that will further remove non-tariff barriers.
China and the EU agreed to maintain global supply chain stability, continue consultations on trade, and solve some intellectual property issues, while China and the EU exchanged market access lists.
EU declared new rule to protect EU steel. The EU’s steel measure, which enters into application on 1 July 2026, reduces duty-free imports of 26 categories of steel products into the EU by an average of 47% as compared with the quotas under steel safeguard.
White House announced temporary suspension of duties on fertilizer from Morocco, according to a Fact Sheet.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
UK Government announced a GBP 15bln defence package.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
French HICP YoY Prel (Jun) 2.0% vs. exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.80%).
French HICP MoM Prel (Jun) -0.3% (Prev. 0.10%).
French Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Jun) Y/Y 1.8% (Prev. 2.4%).
French Inflation Rate MoM Prel (Jun) M/M -0.2% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.1%).
Italian HICP YoY Prel (Jun) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.20%).
Italian HICP MoM Prel (Jun) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.30%).
Italian Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Jun) Y/Y 3.0% vs Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.2%).
Italian Inflation Rate MoM Prel (Jun) M/M 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.4%).
German North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY (Jun) Y/Y 2.1% (Prev. 2.4%).
German North Rhine Westphalia CPI MoM (Jun) M/M -0.4% (Prev. -0.2%).
German Retail Sales YoY (May) Y/Y 1.8% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. -0.3%).
UK GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q1) Q/Q 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.2%, Low. 0.5%, High. 0.6%).
UK GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q1) Y/Y 0.9% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1%, Low. 1.1%, High. 1.1%).
UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (Jun) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.2%).
UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Jun) 44 vs Exp. 48 (Prev. 47).
CENTRAL BANKS
ECB’s Lane said there has been some improvement in confidence, but not at pre-war levels. He added that the oil price curve sees elevated levels in the years coming, which suggest higher cost for the economy. On the ECB’s rate path, he said July vs September is too narrow a debate but aiming to keep options open by not boxing themselves into a specific meeting.
ECB’s Nagel said it is too early make rate hike calls but rate policy has to stay vigilant as inflation may stay significantly above target.
ECB’s Wunsch said we might need another hike and would rather move quickly if the ECB needs another hike. A quick ECB move does not necessarily mean a July move.
ECB’s Sleijpen said while oil prices have come down, there is still a lot of uncertainty and reiterated the ECB’s data-dependent approach.
ECB sources said a rapid oil price retreat eases pressure on the ECB to hike in July and September is seen as more likely, although a June inflation surprise could reignite talk of a July hike, while sources added that a rate hike is not off the agenda even though it may be delayed, according to Reuters.
BoJ’s Sato said the de-escalation of the Middle East conflict is a welcoming move but uncertainty remains on outlook.
RBA Minutes from the June meeting stated that policy needed to remain restrictive and it will do what is needed to achieve price stability, including raising rates if necessary. The Board saw merit in using the room created by earlier hikes to assess how the economy was faring and noted that leaving rates unchanged would best balance inflation and jobs objectives. Furthermore, it stated that the economy was operating with excess demand and broad-based price pressure, as well as noted that the Middle East conflict still posed material upside risks to inflation and downside risks to activity.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US House Speaker Johnson said no veto is expected for the housing legislation and that the housing bill will become law, while he noted that President Trump has yet to decide on signing the bipartisan housing package, according to POLITICO.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
US President Trump’s envoys Kushner and Witkoff are flying to Doha for talks, while Iran said the Doha mission is focused on ceasefire compliance and is not there for talks with the US, according to NYT.
US Secretary of State Rubio said at a Congress briefing that there is a possibility the nuclear talks with Iran may fail, while he also stated that Iran has not yet received any funds under the MoU.
Iranian President Pezeshkian said “Understanding is a bilateral matter. If the American side adheres to the memorandum of understanding, we will also fulfil our obligations”, while he said their approach to unreasonable boasting and unfounded threats is to rely on rationality and human dignity in decision-making and to defend themselves decisively and fearlessly when taking action.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said if they do not reach an understanding with Oman on the routes and arrangements of the Strait of Hormuz, they will, in any case, implement Iran’s new sovereignty and policy in the Strait of Hormuz, while he added that they do not guarantee the safety and security of ships passing through parallel routes in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s acting Defence Minister al-Reza said we do not trust the enemy and our hands are on the trigger in the event of any ceasefire violations, will take appropriate and necessary action.
The framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon has reportedly caused a rift in Iran-Lebanon relations, with Iranian FM Araghchi refusing to visit Lebanon, according to Kan’s Kais citing a Lebanese newspaper.
An explosion was reported in southern Lebanon, which was carried out by Israeli forces, while it was also reported that Israeli forces conducted a strike on town of Deir Sryan in southern Lebanon and that Israeli attacks on Gaza left 48 dead and wounded, according to Tasnim and Mehr News Agency.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Russia reported it shot down 419 Ukrainian drones overnight.
OTHER
Afghanistan’s Taliban said it is planning a retaliatory response to the Pakistan army, and it may close the Pakistan embassy in Kabul over attacks, but also commented that it prefers diplomatic talks to resolve Pakistan tensions.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin failed to hold above USD 60k, as the crypto coin looks set for its third straight quarterly decline.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mixed with choppy price action seen overnight heading into quarter-end, despite the gains in the US, where the DJIA notched a record close, and the Nasdaq outperformed amid strength in tech and communications.
ASX 200 traded little changed amid mixed performances of its sectors and after the RBA minutes from the June meeting continued to affirm a hawkish stance. It stated that policy needed to remain restrictive and the RBA will do what is needed to achieve price stability, including raising rates if necessary.
Nikkei 225 ultimately rallied, but initially swung between gains and losses, with the index fluctuating through the 70k level, amid a weaker currency, FX intervention risks, and disappointing Industrial Production.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged as a rebound in tech stocks was counterbalanced by losses in miners and energy majors, while they also failed to benefit from better-than-expected PMI data and another PBoC overnight repo operation.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Japanese Finance Minister Katayama won’t comment on specific effects levels, but said they will respond appropriately to currency moves at any time as needed, while she added that action could include decisive action as agreed in the joint statement with the US.
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said he won’t comment on FX levels, but added that they are always ready to take necessary action on FX.
Decision on reducing Japan’s consumption tax on food products has been postponed until July due to pushback from the opposition parties, according to TBS.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
Chinese NBS Composite PMI (Jun) 50.6 (Prev. 50.5).
Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 50.3 vs Exp. 50.1 (Prev. 50).
Chinese NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 50.2 vs. Exp. 49.9 (Prev. 50.1).
Japanese Industrial Production MoM Prel (May) M/M 0.5% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 0.5%).
Japanese Industrial Production YoY Prel (May) Y/Y -1.7% vs Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 2.0%).
Japanese Unemployment Rate (May) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.5%).
Japanese Jobs/Applications Ratio (May) 1.17 (Prev. 1.18, Low. 1.17, High. 1.19).
South Korean Industrial Production MoM (May) M/M -3.0% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. -0.7%).
South Korean Industrial Production YoY (May) Y/Y -0.9% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 1.5%).
1 c Asian opening report
US officials head to Doha for talks with Iran, though Tehran claims nothing is planned; USD/JPY trades above 162.00 – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Tuesday, Jun 30, 2026 – 01:56 AM
US President Trump’s envoys Kushner and Witkoff are flying to Doha for talks; Iran believes the trip is focused on ceasefire compliance, and is not there for talks with the US, NYT reported.
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said “we will not hold any negotiation meetings at any level with the American side in the coming days”, Tasnim reported. Journalist Mallick suggested talks may occur through Pakistani/Qatari mediators.
US Secretary of State Rubio said at a Congress briefing that there is a possibility the nuclear talks with Iran may fail.
APAC stocks were mixed; European equity futures are indicative of a mildly firmer open.
DXY slightly firmer; USD/JPY chopped around 162.00 on comments from Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara, before dipping on jawboning from Finance Minister Katayama.
Looking ahead, highlights include German Import Prices (Jun), Retail Sales (May) & Unemployment Rate (Jun), State/Nationwide Inflation Prelim. (Jun), UK GDP Final (Q1), French Inflation Prelim. (Jun), Canadian GDP (Apr), US JOLTs (May).
Speakers include ECB’s Vujcic, Elderson, Schnabel, Cipollone & Lane, BoE’s Breeden, and earnings from Nike.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
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IRAN CONFLICT
US President Trump said that oil prices are way down and that he thinks they’ve already left for the Doha meeting, while he added the meeting in Doha is perhaps important, or perhaps not.
US President Trump’s envoys Kushner and Witkoff are flying to Doha for talks, while Iran said the Doha mission is focused on ceasefire compliance and is not there for talks with the US, according to NYT.
US Secretary of State Rubio said at a Congress briefing that there is a possibility the nuclear talks with Iran may fail, while he also stated that Iran has not yet received any funds under the MoU.
Talks between the US and Iran are to likely be held in an indirect manner through Pakistani and Qatari mediators, while for now, direct technical talks seem to be far from happening in Doha on Tuesday and on Wednesday, according to journalist Anas Mallick.
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said “We will not hold any negotiation meetings at any level with the American side in the coming days”, according to Tasnim.
Iranian Embassy said preparations for talks with the US in Doha had not yet begun.
No nuclear negotiations have been held with the US so far, and there will be no negotiations on nuclear issues until Iran’s conditions are met, according to Fars.
Iranian President Pezeshkian said “Understanding is a bilateral matter. If the American side adheres to the memorandum of understanding, we will also fulfil our obligations”, while he said their approach to unreasonable boasting and unfounded threats is to rely on rationality and human dignity in decision-making and to defend themselves decisively and fearlessly when taking action.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said if they do not reach an understanding with Oman on the routes and arrangements of the Strait of Hormuz, they will, in any case, implement Iran’s new sovereignty and policy in the Strait of Hormuz, while he added that they do not guarantee the safety and security of ships passing through parallel routes in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi stated that French President Macron has said he is cooperating with his partners in demining the Strait of Hormuz, while Gharibabadi added that, according to the MoU, demining is to be carried out solely by Iran and by no other country, and they fundamentally do not permit any such thing.
South Korean President Lee said all South Korean ships exited the Strait of Hormuz except two.
IRGC said it will be conducting ammo disposal operations in Bandar Abbas on Tuesday, in which it will destroy unexploded enemy ammunition, with explosions expected near Sorkhun Vaeysin due to the operations, according to Tasnim.
An explosion was reported in southern Lebanon, which was carried out by Israeli forces, while it was also reported that Israeli forces conducted a strike on town of Deir Sryan in southern Lebanon and that Israeli attacks on Gaza left 48 dead and wounded, according to Tasnim and Mehr News Agency.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks closed higher on Monday, with the Nasdaq outperforming and gaining more than 2% as Semiconductor stocks led the advance. The SOXX ETF posted strong gains after South Korea unveiled a USD 880bln investment plan for its semiconductor and AI industries. Memory stocks initially weighed on sentiment, although the DRAM ETF recovered most of its early losses to finish only modestly lower, while sector performance was mixed but tilted firmly towards growth. Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services led the gains, with the latter also supported by a sharp rally in Comcast (CMCSA) after the company announced plans to split into two publicly traded businesses by spinning off its media assets, including NBCUniversal and Sky.
SPX +1.17% at 7,440, NDX +2.25% at 29,775, DJI +0.59% at 52,188, RUT +0.01% at 3,010.
USTR posted that the US welcomes Switzerland’s progress in implementing elements of a historic Framework Agreement, while it was stated that they will continue to work towards the conclusion of an agreement on fair, balanced, and reciprocal trade that will further remove non-tariff barriers.
China and the EU agreed to maintain global supply chain stability, continue consultations on trade, and solve some intellectual property issues, while China and the EU exchanged market access lists.
EU Commissioner Sefcovic said discussions with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi were intensive, focused and constructive, with the objective of beginning to rebalance trade between the EU and China. He also stated the status quo is not an option, and the EU remains open for business, but must defend its industrial base and continue pushing for a level playing field. Furthermore, Sefcovic said that talks are focused on four areas: trade and investment balancing, export controls, intellectual property rights and WTO reform, while he expressed confidence that sufficient progress can be made before October.
French parliament passed a fast fashion bill on Monday targeting Shein and Temu.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
US House Speaker Johnson said no veto is expected for the housing legislation and that the housing bill will become law, while he noted that President Trump has yet to decide on signing the bipartisan housing package, according to POLITICO.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks were mixed with choppy price action seen overnight heading into quarter-end, despite the gains in the US, where the DJIA notched a record close, and the Nasdaq outperformed amid strength in tech and communications.
ASX 200 traded little changed amid mixed performances of its sectors and after the RBA minutes from the June meeting continued to affirm a hawkish stance. It stated that policy needed to remain restrictive and the RBA will do what is needed to achieve price stability, including raising rates if necessary.
Nikkei 225 ultimately rallied, but initially swung between gains and losses, with the index fluctuating through the 70k level, amid a weaker currency, FX intervention risks, and disappointing Industrial Production.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged as a rebound in tech stocks was counterbalanced by losses in miners and energy majors, while they also failed to benefit from better-than-expected PMI data and another PBoC overnight repo operation.
US equity futures paused overnight following the prior day’s tech and communications-led rebound.
European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.2% on Monday.
FX
DXY strengthened and recouped Monday’s losses amid overnight weakness in its major peers, while risk sentiment was mixed with price action choppy in Asia heading into quarter-end and amid uncertainty regarding US-Iran talks in Doha. Furthermore, US data has been quiet to start the week heading into the key jobs data on Thursday, while there was little reaction seen following the SCOTUS decision to decline Trump’s action to remove Fed’s Cook in a 5-4 vote, which shifts the attention to the actual mortgage fraud case against Cook.
EUR/USD gradually faded some of the prior day’s advances with the single currency giving back the 1.1400 level, despite the continued hawkish tone from ECB President Lagarde at Sintra. She noted they are more likely to face shocks in the coming years that push inflation away from the target, and that European resilience means the ECB can raise rates to address inflation without fear that it becomes a source of financial stress. Nonetheless, ECB sources noted that a rapid oil price retreat eases pressure on the ECB to hike in July and that September is seen as more likely.
GBP/USD mildly pulled back after the prior day’s outperformance and with overnight data showing UK BRC Shop Price Index and Lloyd’s Barometer printed softer-than-expected, while final Q1 GDP data is due later.
USD/JPY broke through the 162.00 level, which occurred near the time of the Tokyo fix and after comments from Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara; he initially stated he will not comment on FX, but then noted that they are always ready to take necessary action on forex. Elsewhere, Finance Minister Katayama stating that they will respond appropriately to currency moves at any time as needed, and that action could include decisive action as agreed in the joint statement with the US. USD/JPY is set to start the London session around 162.18
Antipodeans softened amid a rebound in the dollar and the mixed risk appetite, while AUD/USD also failed to benefit from the better-than-expected Chinese official PMIs and the RBA Minutes, which stated that policy needed to remain restrictive and that the Board will do what is needed to achieve price stability, including raising rates if needed.
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures traded little changed following the prior day’s sideways and indecisive performance, as markets balanced renewed geopolitical tensions ahead of Fed Chair Warsh and NFP this week.
Bund futures flatlined heading into several pertinent data releases with German Import Prices, Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate and Inflation figures scheduled today.
10yr JGB futures retreated amid intervention risks after the JPY fell to its lowest level in 40 years and with mixed results from the latest 2yr JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures were contained following the prior day’s gains, which were spurred by the tit-for-tat strikes over the weekend, with price action restricted overnight amid uncertainty regarding US-Iran talks on Tuesday as the US insisted that the talks will occur, although the Iranian side denied this, while it was reported that talks between the sides are to likely be held in an indirect manner through Pakistani and Qatari mediators.
US President Trump posted “Gasoline Retailers must get their Prices down, IMMEDIATELY! They’re too high considering that Oil is now at $68 a Barrel, and heading south. The Retailers must quickly react to this statement, and do what they know is right”.
US Interior Secretary Burgum said gasoline can “absolutely” go below USD 3.00/gallon.
Russian Deputy PM Novak said Russia still continues to consider a diesel export ban.
Spot gold declined in tandem with the pressure in silver and with selling exacerbated on a break beneath the USD 4,000/oz level.
Copper futures saw two-way trade amid the mixed sentiment and stronger-than-expected Chinese PMIs.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin was pressured overnight and retreated beneath the USD 60,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC injected CNY 69.5bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 1.40% and injected CNY 600bln via overnight reverse repos.
China is reportedly scrutinising the issuance of USD-denominated bonds yielding over 5% and sales of offshore yuan-denominated bonds yielding over 4%, according to Bloomberg.
Japanese Finance Minister Katayama won’t comment on specific effects levels, but said they will respond appropriately to currency moves at any time as needed, while she added that action could include decisive action as agreed in the joint statement with the US.
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said he won’t comment on FX levels, but added that they are always ready to take necessary action on FX.
RBA Minutes from the June meeting stated that policy needed to remain restrictive and it will do what is needed to achieve price stability, including raising rates if necessary. The Board saw merit in using the room created by earlier hikes to assess how the economy was faring and noted that leaving rates unchanged would best balance inflation and jobs objectives. Furthermore, it stated that the economy was operating with excess demand and broad-based price pressure, as well as noted that the Middle East conflict still posed material upside risks to inflation and downside risks to activity.
DATA RECAP
Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 50.3 vs Exp. 50.1 (Prev. 50)
Chinese NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 50.2 vs. Exp. 49.9 (Prev. 50.1)
Chinese NBS Composite PMI (Jun) 50.6 (Prev. 50.5)
Japanese Industrial Production MoM Prel (May) M/M 0.5% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 0.5%)
Japanese Industrial Production YoY Prel (May) Y/Y -1.7% vs Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 2.0%)
Japanese Unemployment Rate (May) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.5%)
Japanese Jobs/Applications Ratio (May) 1.17 (Prev. 1.18, Low. 1.17, High. 1.19)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Russian Foreign Ministry said the actions of Ukraine and NATO give the Russian military additional grounds to demonstrate increased attention to enterprises involved in the production of weapons used against Russia, according to Interfax.
Moscow’s Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports suspended operations, while Moscow’s Mayor reported that 21 drones were downed near the capital, according to Interfax. Russia later reported it shot down 419 Ukrainian drones overnight.
OTHER
China Coast Guard said it conducted patrols around the Scarborough Shoal and surrounding areas in ‘territorial waters’
Afghanistan’s Taliban said it is planning a retaliatory response to the Pakistan army, and it may close the Pakistan embassy in Kabul over attacks, but also commented that it prefers diplomatic talks to resolve Pakistan tensions.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
UK PM Starmer will unveil a defence investment plan on Tuesday, which will include GBP 5bln for drones and other uncrewed systems, but is unlikely to stem the demands of senior officers for additional funding, while the anticipated increase in defence spending of around GBP 14.5bln has been signed off by Starmer’s expected successor, Andy Burnham, according to FT
ECB’s Lagarde said they are more likely to face shocks in the coming years that push inflation away from the target, but added that the resilience Europe has built means that rate hike effects on the economy are more contained. Furthermore, she stated that resilience means the ECB can raise rates to address inflation without fear that it becomes a source of financial stress.
ECB sources said a rapid oil price retreat eases pressure on the ECB to hike in July and September is seen as more likely, although a June inflation surprise could reignite talk of a July hike, while sources added that a rate hike is not off the agenda even though it may be delayed, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (Jun) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.2%)
UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Jun) 44 vs Exp. 48 (Prev. 47)
NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN
SOUTH KOREA
JAPAN
3 CHINA
Rate On China’s New Overnight Liquidity Tool Comes Below Estimates, Hints At Imminent Easing
Monday, Jun 29, 2026 – 06:00 PM
Last week we showed four China-linked charts which made it very clear that, laughable flatlined 5% GDP notwithstanding, China’s economy appears to be on the verge of yet another collapse (explaining the unprecedented drop in both Chinese oil imports and refining output): between autos, real estate, banks and overall consumption, the economy – as seen by the market – was in freefall.
With sentiment collapsing, and amid growing speculation that Beijing will have no choice but to unleash another firehose of fiscal and monetary stimulus, it came as little surprise overnight when China’s central bank set the interest rate on its new overnight liquidity tool at a level that was below expectations, in what some economists see as a de facto rate cut that could push down market borrowing costs.
As Bloomberg reports, the People’s Bank of China said it conducted 300 billion yuan ($44 billion) of overnight reverse repo agreements in open market operations on Monday, according to a statement that didn’t disclose the rate of interest it charged on its new instrument. To avoid confusion, readers should always remember that a reverse repo in China is a repo in the US. And vice versa. The central bank uses the operation to funnel short-term funds to the market to influence borrowing costs, and it accepts eligible bonds as collateral.
The official rate of the facility – the first such overnight facility unlike the bank’s traditional 7-day operations – came in at 1.25%, Reuters reported. Unlike other liquidity instruments, the PBOC did not announce the borrowing cost for the overnight reverse repos. That compared with the median forecast of 1.35% in a Bloomberg survey.
The PBOC’s benchmark remained at 1.4%, 15bps higher than the facility rate, as it provided 157.5 billion yuan of seven-day reverse repo.
The decision, which intentionally came in below well telegraphed estimates, now sets the stage for looser monetary policy including a possible cut in loan prime rates — China’s lending benchmarks — as early as next month, according to Citigroup and Standard Chartered.
“Today’s move is not an outright easing, in our view — but it likely opens the door to one,” Citigroup economists led by Xiangrong Yu said in a note. “The asymmetric move likely signals an easing bias, without a formal cut.”
That will come next.
The operation marked the first time that the PBOC deployed the tool to manage liquidity, and many traders said the move is a first step in a gradual shift toward a benchmark overnight rate. Such a transition is likely to bring China closer to the practice of its global peers such as the Federal Reserve, which relies heavily on its overnight target rate to manage the US economy.
“The People’s Bank of China appeared to signal that it wants borrowing costs to fall by setting the rate on its new overnight reverse repo 10 basis points lower than markets had expected. This backs our view that the PBOC will trim its policy rate to reduce financial burdens on businesses and households and support demand”, said Bloomberg’s David Qu.
The new facility is expected to give the PBOC better control over short-end borrowing costs and allow it to smooth out any big swings in market liquidity. The cost of overnight borrowing in the interbank market has become more volatile since May, as the central bank sought to ease a glut of money in the financial system, with demand for cash typically rising at the end of each quarter.
The yield on China’s 10-year government bonds slipped one basis point to 1.71% after the announcement, extending its drop into a third session. Both the overnight and seven-day repo rates eased.
Still, despite the strong hint of easing policy, some analysts still believe the PBOC will be looking to maintain the policy status quo, for now, by keeping the seven-day benchmark steady while publicly omitting details about the new overnight rate.
“The overnight reverse repo is primarily a liquidity tool aimed at smoothing seasonal funding stress, rather than a tool to signal a particular policy stance,” said Frances Cheung, head of foreign exchange and rates strategy at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “The timing of the operations today and tomorrow ahead of the half-year end — and the amount bigger than the seven-day reverse repo — both support this notion.”
Talk of a rate cut in China gained substantial traction as the Chinese economy slowed dramatically in the second quarter, with retail sales and investment falling at a pace unseen since the pandemic.
Still, most economists expect the PBOC to keep its policy rate unchanged throughout 2026, although Huang Yiping, an adviser to the central bank, said a rate cut still remains a possibility.
“The next step is to lower de facto lending rates, including a possible reduction of LPR rates” across both one- and five-year durations “to support a stabilization of credit growth,” said Becky Liu, head of Greater China macro strategy at Standard Chartered.
“We had long argued that China is firmly staying on an easing path, and will likely to take advantage of the interest rate framework reform to lower de facto rates,” she said.
Lynn Song, China economist at ING, said it’s possible the new rate may have been kept undisclosed to avoid “diluting” the significance of the seven-day benchmark.
“Given the overnight rate is still the most liquid and important rate for trading activity, it makes sense this will eventually be the level that policymakers seek to control,” Song said. “However, it probably will take some time. We probably need some track record and maturity for the overnight repo facility and how it affects market overnight rates before this shift is made.”
end
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
FRANCE
83% Of French In Favor Of Deportation Of Criminals And Long-Term Unemployed Foreigners
An overwhelming number of French people, totaling 83 percent, say they support the deportation of specific categories of foreigners currently residing in France, focusing particularly on delinquents, criminals, or the long-term unemployed, according to a recent CSA survey conducted for Europe 1, CNews, and the JDD.
For young people, 90 percent of them support deporting these categories.
This sentiment shows consistency across genders, with 82 percent of men and 84 percent of women in agreement. Socioeconomic data indicates 84 percent approval among lower socioeconomic groups, 87 percent among the inactive population, and 78 percent among higher socioeconomic professionals.
From a political standpoint, the desire to dismiss foreign delinquents, criminals, or long-term unemployed individuals consistently secures a majority regardless of party alignment.
On the left, sixty-nine percent of voters support the idea, which breaks down to sixty-six percent for LFI, seventy-five percent for the PS, and sixty-eight percent for the Greens. The sentiment is markedly stronger on the right, where ninety-six percent of Les Républicains voters favor the implementation of this process, closely followed by National Rally voters at ninety-three percent approval.
Incredibly, tens of thousands of foreigners with criminal records and deportation orders cannot be removed from France, often resulting in tragedy, including rapes and murders.
Regarding immigration in general, polling from Ifop and Odoxa routinely shows that between 60 to 70 percent of French believe there are “already too many foreigners in France” and that “welcoming additional immigrants is not desirable.”
This polling data emerges alongside ongoing political debates on the topic, such as statements from political figures like Eric Zemmour, who previously stated during an appearance on Europe 1: “I am for zero immigration but also for negative immigration.”
He said that legal immigration drastically increases the rate of overall immigration, notably through family reunification policies. He also said during the program: “I think we need to start remigration.”
A theme park in Britain has received intense backlash for marketing exclusive access, halal vendors and Islamic stalls, effectively sidelining non-Muslims.
Gulliver’s Land in Milton Keynes is handing its rides and grounds to a day promoted as reserved exclusively for the Muslim community. Organisers described it as a “Muslim Theme Park experience” with unlimited rides, halal food vendors, Islamic stalls, kids’ activities and limited tickets sold primarily to that group.
Promotional material from Mubarak Moments, the group behind the event, highlights “a theme park reserved exclusively for the Muslim community” and “exclusive access… for one evening only,” effectively confirming the event is a faith-targeted buyout of a family theme park.
A Milton Keynes local community hub post on Facebook stated “This event has been independently organised by a Muslim community group, so naturally its primary focus is on bringing the Muslim community together, just as any community group would when organising an event for its members.”
The post continued, “That said, there is nothing to suggest that people of other faiths or backgrounds are unable to attend and enjoy the event. Everyone is welcome to attend in the spirit of mutual respect and understanding.”
It added, “As with any community-led event, it is expected that those attending will be supportive of the organisers, respectful of the event’s purpose, and considerate of everyone present.”
Some suggested the event was fake, manufactured as rage bait, but the organiser’s original post is here:
Note how the image on that post features a Muslim family, where as in the other image that element has been removed.
Responses poured in immediately. One user summed up the widespread frustration: “Two-tier Britain in full effect. While English culture gets sidelined and mocked, we’re funding and celebrating parallel societies on our own soil. Gulliver’s Land should be for British families, not imported theocracies.”
Others asked the obvious follow-up questions that never receive answers from officials or venue managers: when is the Christian family day, the English-only evening, or the Jewish community slot? Calls for boycott spread quickly. Several noted the hypocrisy directly: if the same marketing had read “reserved exclusively for the English community,” every equality body, media outlet and politician would have descended within hours.
While Americans reading this might think it’s another example of how far teh UK has fallen, this is also going on over there, in Texas of all places.
Earlier this year a taxpayer-funded indoor waterpark in Grand Prairie, Texas – the $88 million Epic Waters facility built with public sales tax money – advertised its 3rd Annual DFW Epic Eid celebration as a “Muslims only” event. Flyers specified modest dress rules including burkinis for women, halal-slaughtered meat, a private prayer room, and Islamic etiquette such as lowered gaze around the opposite sex.
Organisers initially stated ‘Muslims-only’ with strict modest dress rules and halal food
Backlash forced organisers to edit the language to “modest dress only” and “all are welcome,” yet the underlying restrictions remained visible in FAQs. Critics pointed out the obvious double standard: a publicly funded venue effectively closed to regular visitors for a faith-specific gathering.
The outrage was immediate and effective. Texas Governor Greg Abbott threatened to withhold $530,000 in state grants from the city if the discriminatory event proceeded. Grand Prairie officials canceled it.
Perhaps an even more disturbing development in Texas is the East Plano Islamic Community project, rebranded as The Meadow. This planned development of 1,000 homes, a mosque and schools has drawn concerns over potential Sharia enforcement inside what amounts to a parallel community.
Governor Abbott has been clear that Sharia law, Sharia cities and no-go zones have no place in Texas. Developers still secured a legal win ordering state compliance.
Meanwhile, back in the UK, multiple landlords have advertised rental properties exclusively for Muslims in breach of the Equality Act 2010. Ads on Facebook, Gumtree and Telegram specified “Muslim only,” “only for Muslims,” or “for 2 Muslim boys or 2 Muslim girls.” Some targeted Muslim students only. These are not fringe cases. Investigations found dozens of such listings operating in plain sight while authorities focus enforcement resources elsewhere.
Two-tier Britain in action: “Muslims preferred” ads proliferate while any hint of criticism
Any native British landlord attempting the reverse – advertising “English only” or “Christian only” – would face immediate investigation, fines and media pile-ons. The asymmetry is the definition of two-tier treatment.
Britain’s own institutions have tilted the field further. All members of the government’s “anti-Muslim hostility” advisory group have documented links to Islamist organisations. The state effectively handed rule-writing power over “hostility” definitions to the very networks that benefit from reduced scrutiny.
Schools received official guidance urging staff and pupils to report perceived “anti-Muslim hostility,” creating an Orwellian atmosphere where questioning Islamic practices or parallel societies risks being treated as thoughtcrime.
Labour’s new Islamophobia definition risks chilling free speech on migration and
The same authorities that move swiftly against native dissent have shown remarkable tolerance for actual criminal networks. Sadiq Khan once claimed there were no grooming gangs in London. Police are currently investigating around 4,000 cases.
London Mayor repeatedly dodged questions last year
None of this is about preventing people from celebrating their faith. It is about whether public venues, taxpayer assets and the legal system treat every community by the same rules. When theme parks, waterparks and housing markets begin carving out faith-exclusive zones while the host population is told any reciprocal preference is bigotry, the social contract fractures.
Texas demonstrated that elected leaders can still draw a line against explicit religious discrimination in public facilities and win. Britain’s trajectory has been the opposite: accommodation of separatism, institutional capture by one-sided “hostility” definitions, and native families left wondering why their own cultural continuity receives less protection than imported alternatives.
The Gulliver’s Land episode is simply the latest visible symptom. It will not be the last unless the underlying policy of mass low-assimilation immigration and selective multiculturalism is reversed. Equal rights mean equal rules. Anything less is not tolerance – it is managed decline.
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END
HOLLAND
(Jonathan Turley)
“White Time”: Dutch Professor Argues That Time Itself Is Racist
We have previously discussed how many professors seem to compete in finding new forms of racism in every facet of society and education.Astrophysics,math,runoffs,science,statistics, and meritocracy have all been denounced as racist. In this academic cottage industry, professors secure publications and speaking opportunities by identifying racism in the expressions, images, or entire fields. It was, therefore, only a matter of time before time itself was declared racist.
Zakia Essanhaji, a professor of “organizational ethnography” at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, is the latest to make the case against “white time.”
Her recent paper titled “Academic time theft: stealing time, producing racialized inclusion in Dutch academia” builds on prior work condemning time as racist.
Rutgers Women’s and Gender Studies/Africana Studies Professor Brittney Cooper has also written about how time is racist. Mainstream media has positively cooed at the suggestion, including an interview with NPR. Cooper claimed that “white people own time” after framing the concept of time in “histories of European and Western thought.”
There is also apparently black time:“Time has a history, and so do black people. But we treat time as though it is timeless, as though it has always been this way, as though it doesn’t have a political history bound up with the plunder of indigenous lands, the genocide of indigenous people and the stealing of Africans from their homeland.”
Likewise, in “The Chronopolitics of Racial Time,” Jamaican academic Charles W. Mills described the “Euro-chronometer” as a Western-centric, linear timeline.
These works are often heavily laden with jargonistic narratives. In one study from Brazil, academics argue that “thinking of time outside and against the Euro-chronometer requires decolonial epistemologies that have the potential to disrupt racist chronologies.”
Professor Essanhaji continues this scholarship by “drawing on critical race theory and decolonial scholarship on chronopolitics and white time.” She applies with earlier work “to academic time theft to theorize how universities extract, fragment and defer the time of academics of colour through racialized institutional processes.”
“White time is not simply the time of the privileged, but the power to define temporality and progress itself. It is the colonization of time, known as the system of modernity/coloniality. As Vazquez […] argues, this system is maintained by erasing cyclical or relational understandings of time, ensuring that time is perceived as racing towards unattainable, more modern futures. In that sense, white time is both prescriptive and pre-emptive, foreclosing alternative futures and experiences of the past by delegitimizing other temporalities.”
Academics have long argued that non-white histories and figures are often “erased’ in scholarship. Such arguments have led to a move away from Western works or classics in favor of non-Western sources in higher education. However, the time scholarship suggests that the very construct of time has been shaped and furthers white domination and privilege.
In Professor Essanhaji’s work, this scholarship is used to challenge the demands placed on minority academics in publishing and other measures of academic achievement. Again, the work is heavily layered with jargonistic language. Here are her findings:
“The analysis identifies three mechanisms of academic time theft. First, prolonged uncertainty operates through racialized precariousness that keeps academics of colour in a condition of academic probation through insecure contracts and housing precarity. Second, ongoing disruption emerges through everyday racism that fragments attention, diverts emotional and intellectual labour, and interrupts academic continuity. Third, recursive evaluation operates through the continual resetting of inclusion and promotion criteria, producing perpetual states of “not yet” recognition and deferred academic futures. Together, these mechanisms sustain racialized temporal regimes in which academics of colour are positioned as perpetually “almost there” while white institutional time remains uninterrupted.”
These authors largely cite each other with little attention to countervailing viewpoints. It becomes a closed, self-perpetuating system as academics invite one another to speak at their universities and feed off one another. Few academics are willing to challenge such scholarship. Indeed, as we have discussed, departments have largely purged their ranks of conservative or contrarian voices.
As shown in this latest scholarship, the work in this area jettisons such “colonial” or “white” forms of analysis in favor of storytelling:
“I depart from a critical race perspective, employing counter-storytelling to construct (counter)narratives grounded in the lived experiences of people of colour. This method recognizes the connections between the historical impacts of colonialism and contemporary exclusions within organizations. By highlighting the experiences of people of colour navigating the university’s racism, I seek to provide rich accounts that reflect on how time is racialized and experienced in Dutch universities.”
There is a faux statistical framing based on “data” that is largely the subjective descriptions of minority academics:
“Initial open coding focused on participants’ descriptions of inequality across social, material and affective dimensions, including social, material and affective inequalities. While time was not predefined as an analytical category, it emerged inductively through participants’ recurring temporal framings of inequality.”
When one tries to drill down on the “data,” it appears entirely anecdotal and subjective, often turning on one or a handful of “narratives.” These stories are used to claim that academic measurements of success, driven by “white time,” are unfair to minority faculty: “these mechanisms position academics of colour perpetually as ‘almost there’ while their academic futures remain deferred.”
The thrust is that minority faculty should not be subject to traditional or accepted pathways for tenure or promotion:
“Academic time theft is not an incidental by-product of exclusion but a structural mechanism through which universities sustain white institutional time. It works by continuously delaying, interrupting and recalibrating what counts as academic legitimacy, ensuring that the labour of academics of colour remains productive for the institution while their progression is indefinitely postponed.
…To ensure that people of colour have academic futures, researchers and policymakers must break with the white temporality of academic work within which progress for some is enabled and for others is ongoingly deferred.”
Academia has already embraced narrative-driven scholarship in many departments as an alternative to traditional academic analysis. The Critical Legal Studies movement, for example, has challenged conventional scholarship as too restrictive and exclusionary. Few academics today dare to challenge such scholarship on the merits. To do so is to risk being labeled as reactionary or, even worse, racist.
This latest scholarship further challenges the time and structure for advancement for minority faculty as inherently racist. The question is whether the appointments and promotion process is at risk of losing objective and consistent measurements of scholarship.
Iran Contradicts Trump, Refuses Talks ‘At Any Level’ For Coming Days, While US Delegation Travels To Qatar
Tuesday, Jun 30, 2026 – 06:15 AM
Summary
Iran Foreign Ministry contradicts Trump on Doha talks: “We will not hold any negotiation meetings at any level with the American side in the coming days.”
US-Iran talks may resume Tuesday in Doha, Trump declaring the plan in a Monday Truth Social, with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner traveling to Qatar, though Tehran denies technical negotiations are scheduled.
Qatar suspended most maritime activity as security deteriorates, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted & slowed.
Recent US-Iran strikes have clouded diplomacy, despite reports both sides have paused military action.
Iran warned it could halt negotiations and said further US involvement in Hormuz would escalate tensions and delay the waterway’s reopening.
Iran Intends to Administer Strait With or Without Oman
A couple of late Monday statements, including a declaration by Tehran that it is ready to implement its Hormuz Strait passage protocol with or without Oman:
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister says if they do not reach an understanding with Oman on the routes and arrangements of the Strait of Hormuz, they will in any case implement Iran’s new sovereignty and policy in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran President Pezeshkian says “Understanding is a bilateral matter. If the American side adheres to the memorandum of understanding, we will also fulfill our obligations”
Iran Foreign Ministry Contradicts Trump: No Talks will be Held
Earlier Monday a White House official said the Witkoff-Kushner delegation was en route to Qatar for Iran talks, but it’s looking like Tehran will give the US a cold shoulder. Iran state Tasnim is citing Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, who says:
“We will not hold any negotiation meetings at any level with the American side in the coming days,” directly contradicting prior reports coming out of Washington.
Bloomberg is also confirming the new statement out of the Iranian side. President Trump himself early Monday morning stated on Truth Social: “Iran has requested a meeting. It will take place tomorrow in Doha.” Also Fars has separately stated within the last hours:
“No nuclear negotiations have been held with the US so far, and there will be no negotiations on nuclear issues until Iran’s conditions are met.”
More latest:
IRAN SAYS DELEGATION WILL VISIT QATAR BUT RULES OUT US TALKS
So it seems Witkoff and Kushner will merely meet with Qatari and Pakistani mediators? It remains an open question whether the Iranians will be present in Doha at all. It could be Tehran is issuing the contradictory messaging in order to keep leverage and pressure up, or else to try and humiliate the White House. The Islamic Republic has been warning that more US military action against Iranian territory and in the Hormuz Strait could result in Iran walking away from the negotiating process altogether.
Witkoff-Kushner Delegation En Route to Qatar, Iran Mum
Bloomberg reports Monday that Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will meet with Qatar’s prime minister on Tuesday to discuss the talks with Iran, also citing Axios which spoke to a White House official. Will the Iranians actually be there?
On Wednesday US and Iranian technical teams will meet separately with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, Axios says
Witkoff and Kushner will travel to Doha today: Axios
So it seems the US delegation is in motion, even as Tehran has as yet offered no concrete public confirmation that an Iranian high level team is in route.
Qatar Halts Maritime Activity due to Unravelling Security Situation
A big move from Qatar to halt almost all shipping in its maritime territory on Monday:
Qatar has recommended a temporary halt to shipping and some maritime activities in the country until further notice, without providing a reason. The Qatari Ministry of Transport said the precautionary measure includes recreational and fishing boats, jet skis and other vessels. Although no reason was given for the unusual step, the decision was made after Doha announced last night that a Qatari citizen was killed by shrapnel hitting a vessel due to ‘military operations in the area,’ but did not provide further details.
END
ISRAEL/USA/IRAN/MID MORNING
US-Iran Have Delegations In Qatar, But No Direct Talks; Hormuz Energy Transit Rebounds – Oil Down Near Prewar Levels
Tuesday, Jun 30, 2026 – 09:30 AM
The Witkoff-Kushner delegation is now confirmed to be in Doha, and yet in its latest official statement Iran’s foreign ministry has made clear the Iranian side has no plans to meet US officials “at any level in the next few days.“
“What will probably be done in Doha tomorrow is a discussion on the implementation of clauses of the Memorandum of Understanding, including the clause related to the release of Iran’s restricted assets with the Qatari parties,” spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei says. “Therefore, I emphasize that we have not planned any meeting with the American side at any level for the next few days,” Baghaei added.
Tehran is expecting that $6 billion of Iranian frozen funds in Qatar will be transferred back by week’s end, but Qatar’s foreign ministry indicated Tuesday this had yet to happen. Up for discussion among mediators currently in Qatar is precisely the fate of Iran’s frozen funds, and implementing agreed-upon transfers. However, Washington has for days accused Iran’s military of violating the ceasefire and its commitments under the MoU – a charge that Tehran has fired back in turn.
On Monday President Trump had claimed that Iran “requested a meeting” following the exchange of strikes last week, but no such meeting appears to be materializing – at least not a direct one in Doha. But according to the latest from Al JazeeraTuesday:
Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesman also said that US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are in the country’s capital, Doha, despite having no meetings with Iranian officials scheduled.
Iran remains defiant, insisting that it will not concede anything – especially regards to its control over the Strait of Hormuz, vowing it’s ready to return to armed conflict if things can’t be resolved at the negotiating table.
Tehran is asserting its ‘right’ to manage the strait under its own protocol, and while Oman’s cooperation has been sought, Iranian officials have said they will proceed with or without Oman’s help and that this will include tolls, towards partically funding the reconstruction of Iran.
Part of this entrenched position is Iran wants its frozen assets before peace talks, while the US said is saying it must demonstrate it is worthy first. Fox has cited Baghaei, who “told reports that clauses in Tehran’s interim deal with the U.S. must be implemented before talks on a final agreement can begin.”
“Baghaei also said the communication channel between Iran and the U.S. is based on political factions, not military ones,” the report said.
Still, despite the apparently unbending positions of the warring sides, oil is responding favorably, as the Trump administration no doubt wants to be on message going into the July 4th holiday:
Oil prices were on track Tuesday for their steepest quarterly decline since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, as investors watched for potential U.S.-Iran talks in Doha amid a strained interim ceasefire in the 4-month-old war.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was headed for a second monthly decline of roughly 19%, while Brent crude was on pace for a third consecutive monthly drop, down about 20% in June.
Both Brent and WTI have fallen sharply this quarter and are trading near pre-war levels as more ships move out of the Gulf, easing some supply concerns.
This is also amid a rebound in shipping traffic to kick off this week, after tit-for-tat weekend attacks:
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rebounded Tuesday morning, with eight crossings so far after 40 vessels moved through the critical waterway Monday, according to Kpler data.
The rebound comes after some days of declining traffic following attacks on commercial vessels in the region due to renewed strikes between the U.S. and Iran late last week. Crossings fell from 76 on Wednesday, June 24, to 59 on Thursday, when the Ever Lovely was attacked.
Traffic then dropped to 50 crossings Friday, 39 on Saturday, when the Kiku was attacked, and just 24 on Sunday before recovering to 40 on Monday.
Of Monday’s 40 crossings, 10 vessels used the southern Omani route, which the U.S. Navy is helping coordinate. Thirty-two of the 40 vessels were large tankers and bulk carriers.
In fresh comments on the status of energy transit in the Strait of Hormuz, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said in a fresh media interview reported in Bloomberg that only China has bought Iranian oil since the US lifted sanctions.
Strong signaling out of Israeli defense establishment, following Monday remarks by Katz…
“Iranians thus far have not been able to sell their oil, because the buyers are a little weary of, will it be resanctioned?” Bessent posed on Fox, noting that it’s still trading at a discount to China.
ISRAEL TBN
END
HEZBOLLAH
Israeli Defense Chief Lashes Out At Trump Policy For Preventing Destruction Of Hezbollah
Tuesday, Jun 30, 2026 – 06:55 AM
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz in a talk before reporters Monday ripped the Trump administration, blaming the US for giving into Iran’s demands that a peace framework incorporate the Lebanon front.
Trump “exerted pressure” on Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu within several telephone calls “in the run-up to the signing of the memorandum of understanding” – and ultimately prevented Israel from disarming and destroying Hezbollah, he asserted.
Katz expressed “regret” at the US linking up Iran and Lebanon, saying: “The connection between the Iran and Lebanon fronts is an American interest; if there had been no connection between the fronts, Hezbollah would have collapsed.”
Katz suggested the Israeli army was then forced to go to a “Plan B,” which he outlined as “pushing deeper into the ‘Yellow Line’ zone in southern Lebanon” – which extends nearly 10 kilometers into Lebanon, and mainly constitutes what the IDF currently occupies.
Briefing reporters, Katz claimed that had it not been for American pressure on Israel, the IDF would have caused Hezbollah’s collapse in Lebanon. He said the IDF had planned a “massive” aerial campaign that, he claimed, “would have dismantled Hezbollah,” and that the terror group was “begging the Iranians to save it.”
The defense minister blamed US President Donald Trump’s linking of the US-Iran talks with Lebanon for preventing Israel from doing so. According to Katz, when Trump “linked Iran and Lebanon,” Israel had to stop “bringing down buildings in Beirut,” but could carry out “surgical strikes” on Hezbollah in the Lebanese capital.
Katz emphasized, “I’m sorry about that linkage, but it was an American interest. They very much wanted to advance the possibility of negotiations with Iran.”
He also noted of recently strained US-Israeli relations, “when you enter into a partnership, it has advantages, but it also comes with certain constraints.”
“People should not hold their breath wondering where the next place will be from which Israel will withdraw in Lebanon, because it will not happen until Hezbollah is disarmed. We have no territorial ambitions in Lebanon, but until Hezbollah is disarmed, we will not withdraw a millimeter,” Katz added.
He also said, “When it comes to defending ourselves, there are no compromises, not in Lebanon and not in Iran.”
The defense chief then made clear that Israel is preparing to go it alone regarding Iran if need be:
“If Iran attacks, that is the third Iran war. The situation is very clear. There is no reality in which Israel will allow missile fire at its territory without responding with force. It could happen within two days. My directive to the IDF is to prepare for a blue-and-white operation in Iran.”
The “blue-and-white” label is apparent reference to taking the war to Iran, but without external Washington help. However, it’s also clear that the Iranians have in the past been able to inflict serious damage on Israel, even when it did have active and significant US military support.
The defense minister also again admitted that Israeli intelligence has had assets inside Iran all along, but that these ground elements were prevented from orchestrating full regime change in the Islamic Republic.
END
‘IRAN/ISRAEL
Katz Says Israel Could Be Back At War With Iran ‘Tomorrow’
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Monday that the Israeli military was ready to restart the war against Iran and that it could happen as soon as “tomorrow”.
Katz vowed that Israel would bomb Beirut’s southern suburb of Dahiyeh if Hezbollah rockets were fired into northern Israel and that the IDF was prepared to respond if that prompted Iranian attacks on northern Israel.
“There is no reality in which Israel will not respond to an Iranian attack,” Katz said, according to Israel Hayom. “The equation stands – rocket fire on Israeli communities means an immediate assault on the Dahiyeh. The possibility exists that Iran will attack Israel not only in response to strikes in the Dahieh. We could find ourselves at war with Iran tomorrow.”
The Israeli minister said that a second potential scenario that would lead to a renewed war with Iran would be if President Trump decides to restart the bombing campaign.
“There are two scenarios that would resume full-scale fighting – a decision by President Donald Trump or Iranian missile fire. This could happen in two days,” he said.
Katz also insisted that Israel was ready to fight Iran on its own, which he called a “blue and white operation,” despite the fact that Israel is extremely reliant on US air defenses.
“The IDF is just waiting for it. We have selected targets to strike in Iran, and the IDF is prepared and alert, but we will not interfere with the US President’s current moves vis-a-vis the Iranians,” he said.
Katz also boasted about the destruction of Shia Muslim villages in southern Lebanon. “It was clear during Operation Silver Plow that the Shia villages along the contact line had to disappear,” he said, using the codename for Israel’s recent operations in southern Lebanon.
“We are currently in a situation where there is nearly 100% destruction in the contact-line villages of the western and central sectors. In the eastern sector, we are at 73% of villages destroyed,” Katz added.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/LATVIA/DRONE MFG
Latvia Unveils Joint Drone Plant With Ukraine, PM Touts Site’s Closeness To Russian Border
Tuesday, Jun 30, 2026 – 02:45 AM
Latvia has announced confirmation its government has inked a new deal for Ukraine to assist in a Ukrainian drone manufacturing plant on Latvian soil, right near the border with Russia, as well as close to the Belarusian border.
Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs said following an emergency cabinet meeting held in Latgale that his country will “accelerate plans to establish a joint drone manufacturing facility with Ukraine and aims to locate it near the country’s eastern border region,“ regional media reports.
The small Baltic country has been a member of NATO since 2004, and along with other allies like Estonia and Lithuania (both of which also joined NATO during the mid-2000s expansion wave).
These Baltic states have remained outspoken in their anti-Moscow hawkishness, and this latest announced plan of Latvia to produce drones with Ukraine once again reveals that there’s no heed being given to Russia’s red lines.
The Kremlin has for years warned European states that constant NATO and military infrastructure expansion right up to Russia’s borders could trigger major war. Of course, in Ukraine it has, but fears remain that some kind of major provocation could result in direct Russia-NATO conflict.
Regional media is really emphasizing the closeness of the planned facility to Russia:
Kulbergs said the agreement on cooperation in the field of unmanned systems, signed at the beginning of June, includes plans for joint production. In particular, a manufacturing facility is to be built rapidly near Latvia’s border with Russia.
The prime minister said the government would do everything necessary to ensure the facility is located close to the border. He added that the region needs economic activity, investment and jobs.
So now these Baltic leaders are just openly prodding and provoking Russia, it seems.
The Latvian leader after saying all of this is still promoting the ‘defensive’ nature of such a joint drone program: “Kulbergs also said that new counter-drone systems are expected to become operational along Latvia’s borders with Belarus and Russia in July and August, allowing the country to respond to aerial threats without deploying aircraft on every occasion.”
“If there is a drone threat, we will not have to scramble aircraft every time. It is a very expensive and effective solution, but it is neither the best nor the most efficient one,”he said further.
There’s been a heightened spillover threat of UAVs from the context of the Russia-Ukraine theater, however, in some cases these have been reported to be errant Ukrainian drones, and not just Russian ones.
Kulbergs is also saying he hopes to reachUkraine’s level of drone defense by the end of the year. The Zelensky government has over the past year been aggressively marketing its expertise to allied nations, and even in the Middle East in the context of the Iran war.
In her final days as Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard released a collection of newly declassified documents that reignite one of the COVID-19 pandemic’s most consequential unresolved questions: where did COVID-19 come from, what did government officials know — and when?1
The records, which span intelligence assessments, internal communications, grant reports and scientific research documents, paint a picture of a far more complicated behind-the-scenes discussion than the public was told at the time. They also raise specific questions about whether senior officials shaped, or suppressed, the public narrative around those origins.
This story reaches far beyond any one scientist or government agency. It’s about transparency, oversight, research funding and whether the public received a complete picture during a global crisis that reshaped daily life, health care and public policy. Looking at what these newly released files actually claim, what evidence they contain, and why the details continue to fuel debate allows you to evaluate the record for yourself rather than relying on anyone else’s conclusions.
Declassified Files Tie COVID Research, Intelligence, and Fauci Together
A report published by ZeroHedge centers on the declassified documents that describe federally funded coronavirus research tied to the years before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.2 The documents seek to determine whether important evidence about the virus’s origin and related research activities was known inside government long before the public learned about it.
• The declassified files rely heavily on government records to build their case — The evidence includes intelligence assessments, internal emails, National Institutes of Health (NIH) grant reports, briefing records and other official documents rather than recollections or interviews alone.
Together, those records create a timeline that compares what government agencies, researchers and senior officials reportedly discussed behind closed doors with what was later communicated publicly. The article argues that differences between those internal records and later public statements raise important questions about how information regarding COVID-19’s origins evolved over time.
• The grant records describe research that extended well beyond basic virus surveillance — According to the report, Year 5 progress documents for EcoHealth Alliance’s NIH grant outlined several planned laboratory activities, including sequencing spike genes from bat coronaviruses, creating mutant viruses to evaluate their ability to recognize human receptors, performing receptor-binding experiments, and conducting infection studies in humanized mice.
Humanized mice are specially bred laboratory mice that carry human cells or tissues so scientists can study how diseases behave inside a living system that more closely resembles people.
• Several research projects also overlapped with earlier proposals — The article states that the work described in the grant report paralleled elements of the 2018 DEFUSE proposal involving EcoHealth Alliance; Peter Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance; Ralph Baric, a coronavirus researcher at the University of North Carolina; and researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
The DEFUSE proposal is significant because DARPA — the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency — reportedly reviewed and rejected it in 2018, meaning federal officials had already evaluated this type of research before the pandemic began. According to the released documents, that proposal discussed creating chimeric bat coronaviruses. A chimeric virus combines genetic material from different viruses so researchers can study how individual pieces influence behavior.
The relevance is straightforward — if a chimeric virus combining bat and human-adapted elements were created in a lab and accidentally released, it could look, genetically, like something that evolved naturally. The proposal also described receptor adaptation studies, consideration of furin cleavage site insertion and testing in humanized mice.
• Understanding these technical terms helps you evaluate the debate yourself — Spike proteins act like keys that help viruses enter cells. Receptors serve as the locks on those cells. Receptor adaptation experiments examine whether changes to the virus improve its ability to fit those locks.
Furin cleavage sites are sections of a virus that make it easier for human enzymes to activate the virus before it enters cells. These laboratory techniques became central topics during later debates over COVID-19’s origin.
• The files also show that some people had already been exposed to bat-related coronaviruses — According to the report, surveillance work performed under the same NIH grant tested 1,497 rural residents in southern China and found that nine people, or 0.6%, carried antibodies against bat SARS-related or HKU10 coronaviruses.
Antibodies are proteins your immune system creates after exposure to an infection, making them useful markers that show whether someone encountered a virus in the past. Researchers often conduct antibody surveys to understand how frequently viruses circulate among people who live near wildlife reservoirs.
A 0.6% exposure rate may sound small, but it confirms that bat coronaviruses were already making the jump to humans in the region — quietly, before any outbreak was recognized. That baseline matters: if officials monitoring this research knew related viruses were reaching people in southern China, the question of what they concluded about COVID-19’s origin, and how urgently they acted, becomes harder to answer with a simple “we didn’t know.”
The Declassified Records Raise New Questions About Fauci’s Testimony
According to the ZeroHedge report, the newly released records show that Anthony Fauci, then director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), participated in a June 4, 2021, secure briefing with Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) personnel, National Security Council officials and other intelligence representatives to discuss COVID-19 origins, including pangolin research, reports of sick Wuhan Institute of Virology researchers and competing origin theories. The report states that Fauci also recommended scientists for the intelligence community (IC) to consult.
• The article argues these records conflict with Fauci’s later testimony — According to the report, Fauci testified during a 2024 congressional interview that he had no knowledge of or participation in discussions with intelligence officials about viral research.
The declassified files, according to the report, describe the June 4, 2021, briefing in specific detail — including the attendees and topics discussed. Because that account directly contradicts Fauci’s congressional statement on the same question, the report concludes he provided false testimony.
• Internal communications suggest scientific disagreements continued behind the scenes — One example involves a June 8, 2021, email that referenced a 2016 meeting at the New York Academy of Medicine where Daszak reportedly discussed colleagues in China “manipulating the spike protein on coronavirus to make them more virulent.”
The report also describes internal discussions that referenced a Department of Defense report concerning a “suspicious added furin-site” and FBI reporting that examined unusual genetic characteristics.
• The timing of these internal discussions adds context to one of the most influential scientific publications of the early pandemic — In March 2020, a paper titled The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2, published in Nature Medicine, argued strongly against a laboratory origin and was widely cited by public health officials and media as definitive.3
According to the declassified records described here, government scientists and intelligence analysts continued to privately examine competing theories and unresolved technical questions over the following months and into 2021, raising questions about whether the scientific consensus presented to the public reflected the full range of evidence being considered behind closed doors.
• Other communications reflected disagreement rather than complete consensus — According to the article, one analyst warned that complex scientific information could easily confuse people without specialized training while still arguing that the evidence deserved additional scrutiny. Another internal observation stated that “the IC took direction straight from NIH … the people that funded the Wuhan Lab” and referred to “a complex web of money and politics influencing analysis.”
• The released files also describe efforts to select outside reviewers for COVID-origin assessments — According to the report, July 2021 emails evaluated several candidates before rejecting them because of political sensitivity or perceived conflicts of interest.
The article states that James Clapper was viewed as politically “hot,” Anthony Fauci was flagged because of his NIH funding connections, Michael Morell was considered “too public,” while Sue Gordon and another individual identified only as “Beth” were also set aside.
Whether those decisions strengthened or weakened the review process remains contested. Standard scientific review practice requires that evaluators disclose financial relationships, prior collaborations and public statements relevant to the subject under review, precisely so readers can weigh those factors themselves. By that measure, the selection discussions described here raise questions worth examining.
Taken together, these documents don’t resolve the question of COVID-19’s origin, but they do reveal how much was being debated behind closed doors while public officials presented a narrower picture. That gap between private deliberation and public messaging is exactly why developing your own framework for evaluating health and science claims matters.
How to Protect Yourself from Misleading Public Health Narratives
The newly released documents suggest the public was not shown the full picture. According to the records described in this article, government officials privately considered a laboratory origin to be a credible explanation while influential scientific publications and public officials publicly promoted a natural origin and dismissed competing views. This underscores why I believe your strongest protection is learning to examine the evidence for yourself instead of relying on official narratives alone.
1. Start with the original records, not the headlines — Headlines often tell you what to think. Original documents allow you to decide for yourself. Intelligence assessments, grant reports, internal emails, and hearing transcripts provide a timeline of what officials knew, when they knew it, and how those discussions compared with later public statements. The closer you stay to primary documents, the less likely you are to be influenced by selective reporting.
2. Compare what was said privately with what was said publicly — One of the strongest themes running through these documents is the difference between internal discussions and the public narrative.
According to the records summarized here, government scientists and intelligence officials continued examining a laboratory origin even while much of the public conversation shifted toward a single explanation. Whenever those two stories diverge, it deserves careful scrutiny rather than dismissal.
3. Follow the money and the timeline together — Research funding, grant proposals, scientific collaborations and intelligence briefings become much more meaningful when viewed chronologically. Put those events in order. Look at when research was proposed, when meetings occurred, when intelligence assessments were written and when public statements followed. Patterns often become much easier to recognize once the full timeline is laid out.
4. Ask who shaped the scientific discussion — Science advances through open debate, not by discouraging competing hypotheses. Whenever reviewer selection, funding relationships or conflicts of interest become part of the story, pay attention. Transparency strengthens confidence in scientific conclusions. Efforts that limit debate or discourage scrutiny deserve the same level of examination as the scientific evidence itself.
5. Remain open to new evidence instead of defending old narratives — Scientific understanding changes as new documents, testimony and data emerge. If newly released records strengthen or weaken a conclusion you previously accepted, let the evidence lead you. Your goal is not to defend a position. Your goal is to understand what happened as accurately and completely as the available evidence allows.
FAQs About the Newly Released COVID Documents
Q: What do the newly declassified documents claim about COVID-19’s origins?
A: According to the documents described in this article, a U.S. national laboratory concluded in May 2020 that a laboratory origin was just as plausible as a natural origin. The records also suggest government officials continued discussing the lab-origin hypothesis privately while the public narrative largely emphasized a natural origin.
Q: What type of coronavirus research do the declassified records describe?
A: The records describe federally funded research involving bat coronaviruses, including spike protein engineering, receptor adaptation experiments, testing in humanized mice and discussions about furin cleavage sites. These research methods later became central to debates about SARS-CoV-2’s characteristics.
Q: Why do the documents raise questions about Fauci’s testimony?
A: According to the report, the newly released records show that Fauci participated in a June 4, 2021, intelligence briefing about COVID-19’s origins. The article argues those records conflict with Fauci’s later congressional testimony that he had no knowledge of or participation in discussions with intelligence officials about viral research.
Q: Why are the internal emails and reviewer discussions important?
A: The documents describe internal scientific disagreements, intelligence discussions and efforts to select outside reviewers for COVID-origin assessments. Together, they provide additional context about how government agencies and researchers evaluated competing explanations for the pandemic’s origin behind the scenes.
Q: What’s the biggest lesson from these newly released records?
A: The documents underscore the importance of examining original evidence instead of relying only on headlines or official summaries. Looking at intelligence assessments, grant reports, internal communications and timelines allows you to better understand how scientific conclusions and public messaging developed over time.
Maersk Lifts Outlook As Wall Street Questions Whether Freight Tailwinds Can Last
Tuesday, Jun 30, 2026 – 07:45 AM
A.P. Moller-Maersk shares rose in Copenhagen trading after the world’s second-largest container carrier surprised analysts by raising its full-year profit outlook, citing stronger-than-expected containerized demand, particularly across Asia. The upbeat guidance suggests the global container market has remained resilient despite earlier Hormuz-related chokepoint disruptions, with global shipping demand holding.
The Danish shipping and logistics giant now expects global container volumes to grow about 4% this year, up from its prior forecast of 2% to 4%. It also lifted guidance for EBITDA, EBIT, and free cash flow, with the new ranges coming in well above analyst expectations, as tracked by Bloomberg.
Here’s a snapshot of the full-year guidance upgrade (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Sees underlying Ebitda $8 billion to $10 billion, saw $4.5 billion to $7 billion, estimate $7.33 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
Sees underlying Ebit $2 billion to $4 billion, saw loss $1.5 billion to $1 billion, estimate $1.42 billion
Maersk’s guidance matters because container shipping offers one of the clearest real-time reads on global demand for goods.
The stronger outlook reflects a recent surge in spot freight rates, resilient export volumes in Asian markets, and tighter effective capacity due to ongoing route disruptions. The key question for investors now is whether that momentum is strong enough to push Maersk shares back toward, or through, their 2021 highs.
Wolfe Research analyst Jacob Lacks noted:
Maersk is clearly benefitting from the recent surge in spot rates, and a key question in our minds for the stock is how long the current environment lasts. We continue to believe the recent tightness reflects at least some degree of a pull-forward and an early peak season. This is consistent with ocean freight futures which continue to show a meaningful normalization lower in ocean rates following July.
Deutsche Bank analyst Harishankar Ramamoorthy noted:
..but difficult to see rates momentum sustain over the medium-term.
We have revised our forecasts for 2026 to reflect the guidance above, but make little changes to estimates beyond 2026 (see Figure 2). Freight rates have been volatile in the past several months, given many “black swan” events, and it is difficult to argue that the current momentum in spot rates should continue structurally into the medium term. Nevertheless, as we noted in our monthly Transportation Leading Indicators note yesterday, markets are pricing in an easing in freight rates for Maersk driven by the peace deal in the Middle East (latest SCFI is still c. 140% higher than in end Feb); but they seem to be ignoring that bunker 380 has dropped c. 37% from its peak in March, now trading only 7% higher than at the end of Feb.
We have been arguing that the direction of travel for spot freight rates relative to bunker costs has been favourable for Maersk (see Figure 1), and it is indeed providing some near-term tail risk. Given the swing in EBITDA, FCF, and consequently net debt, while we haven’t changed our valuation methodology or the multiples used, our price target stands revised from DKK 12,970 to DKK 14,030. Despite the near-term tailwinds to spot rates, the situation on overcapacity in the industry warrants caution over the medium term; retain HOLD.
Bernstein analyst Alex Irving noted:
This increase follows strong demand leading to strong freight rates. We see the increase in spot rates YTD as having two components. The initial rise in spot rates following the outbreak of war in the Middle East was likely largely, if not entirely, due to additional surcharges for higher fuel costs. However, rates continued to rise even as fuel prices started to decline as Q2 went on, reflecting strength in demand. What is not yet clear to us is how much is a pull-forward of demand, ahead of further surcharges and the risk of higher tariffs in Q3, vs genuinely greater demand. Maersk has increased its volume outlook for total container trade for the year from a range of 2-4% growth, to 4% growth. By implication, the answer is some of both.
The underlying threat to industry profitability of oversupply has not gone away, and in recent days we have seen reports of further mega orders (MSC just yesterday reported to be ordering up to 20 vessels of 20,000 TEU each, for delivery from 2029). Near term, the rate environment continues to support very strong earnings at container lines.
Last week, Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc told Bloomberg: “It has been strong throughout the first half of the year, despite the war and the disruption to energy markets,” adding, “For us, the expectation is that this in all likelihood, right now looks like it’s set to continue into the rest of the
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Today Will Or Won’t See A US-Iran Meeting In Doha Which Will Be “Perhaps Important, Perhaps Not”
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Jun 30, 2026 – 10:00 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Build ’em up or Burnham down?
In typical form, today will or won’t see a US-Iran meeting in Doha; which will be ‘perhaps important, perhaps not’; and either discussing the MoU or unfreezing $6bn of Iranian assets. So, the ‘peacefire’ continues, as expected, but with little chance this holds permanently. Likewise in Lebanon, where the US is pushing to disarm Hezbollah –which refuses– and Israel won’t leave until that happens. And Gaza, where the Board of Peace is finalising its plans as the IDF warns Hamas is readying for war. And Iraq, which just set a September 30 deadline for pro-Iran militias to disarm. And Libya, where Marco Rubio is fighting another crisis. To give an early Christmas present to Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene, Israel also says it’s developing space lasers.
That’s as South Korea announced a $1.3 trillion AI and IT investment plan to maintain an edge vs. China over the next decade – which is showing footage of a 6G fighter jet and conducting tests of a hypersonic ramjet that can change shape in flight; China has restricted dual use exports to Mitsubishi, Hitachi, Komatsu units; Supermicro’s Taiwan offices were raided in a chip smuggling probe; and a Rakuten-led group is set for state subsidies to build Japan’s answer to Starlink. In short, what we see around us is as about massive, urgent investment in defence and AI as much it is about related energy (i.e., Hormuz), broader commodities, and supply chains.
That’s unbelievably expensive to address. For example, the US is pushing for a $1.5 trillion defence budget, while keeping up with South Korea alone would require Europe to invest $14 trillion to match it equivalently. Tellingly, the UK will today unveil its new defence strategy, which shifts to cheap drones from larger platforms –guided missile destroyers and frigates are cut– as outgoing PM Starmer presides over a plan that will only reach 2.7% of GDP by 2030, not the promised 3.0%; some say he wants to run NATO next (to tell his successor he must reach 3.5%).
So, we may soon require:
Creative book-keeping: Hungary’s new PM claims his predecessor hid half of the budget deficit, which is actually 8% of GDP.
Spending cuts: and good luck with that.
New taxes:France is now looking for EU-wide taxes to fund a planned €2 trillion commission budget, with the idea that foreign firms, like US tech and polluters, could pay more.
Tariffs: last week, US Treasury Secretary Bessent cited Hamiltonian economic statecraft; yesterday, White House macro-maven Miran penned a WSJ op-ed arguing for US tariffs. The EU just gave China an October deadline to address their huge –and predictable– trade imbalance, kicking the can down the road, but pointing to a trade war and/or Hamilton (and Trump) moment ahead, which could prove transformative. Even Paul Krugman is telling the EU to tariff China.
Industrial policy: which is very much back in vogue, even if what this means is vague for many.
A compliant central bank: There, the Supreme Court just overturned precedent to allow the White House to remove heads of federal agencies, greatly empowering the executive. It kept FOMC member Cook in her seat for now until due process plays out but did not address whether “for cause” removals at the Fed are also constitutional or not, allowing Trump to restart the process of trying to fire her over allegations of mortgage fraud and, in time, to potentially relitigate if the Fed is a special case or not.
The ECB’s Lagarde, who years ago said the Bank should work hand-in-hand with governments to overcome geopolitical crises, just stated Europe is getting better at coping with economic shocks due to a better financial framework and the green transition. European refineries’ flexibility on jet fuel helped; but China did more by not importing as much oil, and the US and Japan by draining their SPRs, all due to *their* economic statecraft. Now the risk is rising of a China cut-off of rare earths to Europe, which account for half its total (and Russia a quarter), and of more expensive Chinese imports across the board. What if that transpires from October onwards – and if we get more war vs. Iran after the US midterms?
In the UK, the question is ‘Build ‘em up or Burnham down?’ as the soon-to-be UK PM just called to “rewire” the UK economy. He’s talking about devolution – which hasn’t boosted growth in Scotland; equalisation across regions – which most countries want but fail to achieve; (expensive?) public control of utilities; and reindustrialisation – in a period of protectionism and bloc-based realignment. In short, is the UK going to tariff everybody, or the US, or Europe, or China? Logically, one should start from there, not locally, only to then hit a low tariff ceiling on the attempted way back up.
In short, political economy remains in flux. Markets don’t think things through in such detail or depth: whatever happens is an input into the ‘up or down from here’ binary. However, the scale on which things can move up or down based on how political-economy transforms shouldn’t be understated. JPY is at a 40-year low vs. the dollar at time of writing: where will other crosses go as things unfold?
Yet even as politicians –and central bankers– try to relearn things from first principles, revolutionary change can reshape the architecture which they think they are operating in. For example, regular readers may recall that years ago I floated the idea of letters of marque as a way to channel private sector energies and capital into national security without busting budgets or political constraints like no boots on the ground. On that note, see the following proposal taken from X and think about it seriously:
“A durable solution to the Iran problem is pretty easy:
Form the American Persian Energy Company (APEC)
Give 25% to Exxon and Chevron, who will capitalize it and provide expertise
Ground invasion of Iran, but only with volunteer troops who will be compensated with APEC stock
US military provides air cover and logistical support
Defecting Iranian generals will also be compensated with a quantity of APEC stock dependent on their rank and the number of soldiers they bring with them
All oil and gas rights in Iran are granted to the APEC
New $2 trillion American company is created out of thin air
Iran temporarily governed by APEC CEO while a transition to a suitable civilian government is negotiated”
If you think this kind of thing doesn’t happen (anymore: it used to) then you haven’t noticed how 18th and 19th century thinking is not just back in vogue but is actively winning vs. the post-Cold War political establishment consensus; or how modern mercenaries like Blackwater operate.
Political economy is changing; it will change much, much more; and markets will change with it. The volatility we are seeing in the Hormuz ‘peacefire’ is just a taste of what’s to come. Some assets will be built up. Others will be burned down.
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS//ENERGY COMMENTARIES
Oman Is Playing Word Games On Iranian Tolls Through Strait: ‘Service, Environmental Fees’
Tuesday, Jun 30, 2026 – 12:40 PM
Iran has remained on message in the last several weeks despite a few serious flare-ups in tit-for-tat fighting and missile and drone exchanges with US forces, also including Iranian strikes on at least two foreign shipping vessels which refused to heed Tehran’s ‘rules’.
Hormuz will not return to its pre-war status, Iranian officials insist, even as negotiations are still happening, but are stalled in terms of direct interactions with the American delegation led by Witkoff and Kushner in Qatar. Tehran’s position is that US-Israeli war on Iran forever changed the rules of passage. Safe navigation can no longer be treated as a free service, when Iranian infrastructure is threatened, Tehran has maintained.
The Iranians have been in high level talks with Oman, the coast on the other side of the Hormuz chokepoint passageway, even while Washington brings immense pressure on its southern Arabian ally not to comply – threatening punishment and repercussions.
Concerning the (nuanced, shall we say) Omani position, its Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi has sought to clarify in a new interview that the Sultanate opposes imposing transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, saying it will uphold international maritime law.
However, it seems Oman is still largely in Iran’s corner when it comes to jointly collecting “fees” of some kind, and like with much that we’ve seen of Iran-focused international statements and negotiations, some word games are being played – and wrangling over definitions:
FM Al-Busaidi said Oman opposes tolls on transit itself, which he said are “prohibited” under international law, but drew a “clear distinction between transit fees and maritime, environmental, and navigational services that may be discussed voluntarily with the benefiting states and companies,” the same distinction Iran has invoked to justify proposed “service fees.”
So the word “toll” might be nixed and replaced by talk of “environmental” and “navigational services” fees. It’s akin to hotels in various Western cities charging hidden and ambiguous “city” and an “admin/hotel tax” or other ambiguous hard to nail down “fees” – which are often hefty and leave patrons confused and outraged.
The Omani FM claimed that Oman and Iran have agreed that any future arrangements for the strait will remain within international law and the “rights” of the coastal states. So clear enough ‘legal loopholes’ are being established here – enough to drive a truck through and raise the ire of Washington.
But it could be that the Trump administration, eager to end the war – or that is, this little ‘excursion’ in the Middle East and thus bring oil prices back to permanent pre-war levels, might in the end play ball with the Iranians and Omanis on the issue.
After all, the alternative is resumption of full war and thus escalating crude and energy prices globally – and that’s precisely the kind of economic and political leverage the Iranians are counting on. There might be plenty of US willingness to look the other way to get energy transit flowing once again.
END
Trump Threatens ‘Big Problems’ For Gasoline Retailers If They Don’t Cut Prices
President Donald Trump on Tuesday demanded that gasoline retailers immediately lower prices at the pump, warning of “big problems” if they fail to pass along the benefits of falling crude oil prices to consumers.
In an early-morning post on Truth Social, Trump said gasoline prices remain too high despite U.S. crude oil trading at about $68 a barrel and continuing to decline.
“Gasoline Retailers must get their Prices down, IMMEDIATELY!” Trump wrote.
“They’re too high considering that Oil is now at $68 a Barrel, and heading south.”
[ZH: Perhaps Mr. Trump does not fully realize that it takes time for the energy supply chain to ripple down to pump prices]
He urged retailers to “start targeting around the $2.50 a Gallon number,” while accusing some stations of price gouging.
Price gouging “is totally illegal,” Trump wrote, adding that if gas stations don’t lower prices at the pump, “big problems lie ahead!”
Trump also singled out California, saying the state should reduce gasoline taxes that he argued are inflating prices for drivers.
“Soon the Tax will be higher than the Product itself,” he wrote, adding that Californians were being “abused” by their state government.
Trump’s warning comes less than a week after he said he had directed the Department of Justice to investigate whether gasoline retailers and oil companies were failing to lower pump prices in line with the sharp decline in crude oil prices following the U.S.–Iran ceasefire agreement.
At the time, Trump accused companies of “gouging” consumers and said retail gasoline prices were not falling quickly enough despite crude prices dropping “like a rock.”
[ZH: lower gas prices correlate well with higher approval ratings for Trump (and vice versa)…]
Gas Prices Continue to Ease
National gasoline prices have been trending lower in recent weeks as global oil markets stabilized following the easing of tensions in the Middle East.
According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average price for regular gasoline stood at $3.91 per gallon on June 29, marking the fifth consecutive weekly decline and the second straight week below $4 per gallon.
The average was down from nearly $4 a week earlier and more than 50 cents lower than one month ago, when drivers were paying about $4.51 per gallon.
AAA said declining crude oil prices and improving fuel supplies have helped push prices lower, although demand is expected to rise as a record number of Americans prepare to travel over the Independence Day holiday weekend.
The U.S.–Iran conflict disrupted crude supplies in the Persian Gulf, driving prices to multi-year highs.
However, since the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17, agreeing to extend a ceasefire to give room for negotiations on a lasting peace deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, oil benchmarks have fallen sharply from peaks above $126 per barrel for Brent and nearly $120 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI).
After five straight monthly increases, analysts have cut their 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the Iran war began, following the U.S.–Iran deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing concerns over prolonged supply disruptions.
A monthly Reuters survey of 31 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude would average $84.50 per barrel in 2026, versus $90.44 projected last month. WTI was seen averaging $79.49 per barrel, down from May’s projection of $84.63.
However, some analysts said that lingering geopolitical risks mean that the potential remains for crude prices to rebound.
“We believe that the market is being too optimistic over the speed of the supply recovery as well as its sustainability,” Warren Patterson, ING’s head of Commodities Strategy, wrote in a Monday note.
“Furthermore, we have seen a significant tightening in global oil inventories since the start of the conflict, which leaves the market more vulnerable relative to the pre-war environment.”
Some energy experts have said that gasoline prices typically do not fall as quickly as crude oil prices due to factors such as delays in refining, transportation, and distribution.
Chevron chief financial officer Eimear Bonner said last week that lower crude prices should eventually translate into cheaper gasoline for consumers but noted that the process takes time.
“There is a lag between … reductions in oil prices and when that shows up at the pump,“ she told CNBC on June 25. ”But we expect that prices will come down as things continue to normalize.”
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUE
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
Spanish daily newspaper ABC.es reports that some of the worst quake damage in Venezuela is concentrated in Caraballeda and Catia La Mar, where high-rise towers built under the Great Housing Mission Venezuela, or Gran Misión Vivienda Venezuela (GMVV), were reduced to rubble.
The Chávez-era socialist housing program is now facing scrutiny after the outlet noted, “The explanation given by engineers and construction specialists is that low-quality materials were used in the Chavista Housing Mission, without supervision and without applying anti-seismic standards.”
GMVV was later expanded by the socialist Maduro regime without regard for the quality of building materials or anti-seismic standards, leaving only a handful of the 193 buildings in one housing complex in quake-ravaged Catia La Mar standing.
“None of the official buildings would withstand an engineering inspection, much less an earthquake of magnitude 7.5, like the one last Wednesday,” the outlet stated.
Transparency Venezuela has previously alleged widespread corruption in the socialist housing program, including unfinished or failed projects linked to foreign contractors from Chavismo-aligned countries.
The outlet said many of these social housing projects “collapsed like sandcastles,” and the head of the Chilean rescue teams on the ground told AFP News last Friday that there is “little chance of finding people alive.”
The collapse of Venezuela’s GMVV is becoming another case study in how socialist corruption fails at delivering even the most basic needs for the people. What was sold by the left-wing government as housing for all now appears to have produced high-rise death traps, built with low-quality materials, weak oversight and inadequate seismic standards.
Yet another example of socialist governance has instead become a symbol of state failure and corruption.
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1395 DOWN 0.0024
USA/ YEN 162.37 UP 0.454 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3223 DOWN 0.0029 OR 29 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4239 UP 0.0030 //CDN DOLLAR DOWN 30 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 20.50 PTS OR 0.50%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 145.66 PTS OR 0.63%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.36%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 145.66 PTS OR 0.63%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.50 PTS OR 0.50%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.36%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 594.21 PTS OR 0.86%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: $4030.95
silver:$59.06
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 46.66 PLUS 2 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 78.89 ROUBLE// DOWN 1 ROUBLE AND 90 BASIS PTS. WOULD YOU BELIEVE THAT THE RUSSIAN ROUBLE AND THE ISRAEL SHEKEL ARE THE STRONGEST CURRENCIES BESIDES THE DOLLAR .
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.7267 UP 1 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.436 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.382 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.009 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early TUESDAY MORNING: 101.15 UP 27 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.249% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.695% UP 6 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.967 UP 13 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.348 DOWN 1 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.5960 UP 0 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.9045 UP 3 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1402 DOWN 0.0017 OR 17 basis points
USA/Japan: 162.37 UP 0.440 OR YEN IS DOWN 44 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.7517 UP 3 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.465 UP 4 BASIS POINTS.
REAR VIEW: US JOLTS top expectations; US Consumer Confidence misses; Fed’s Hammack said may need to consider hikes with inflation too high; Chinese NBS PMIs beat; Softer-than-expected French & German inflation; Trump admin reportedly plans to pay smaller meatpackers to keep slaughtering cattle; Iran’s Ghalibaf stated current meetings held by Iran are aimed at fulfilling MoU commitments.
COMING UP: Data: Japanese Tankan Survey (Q2), Consumer Confidence (Jun), Global S&P Manufacturing PMI Final (Jun), EU Inflation Prelim. (Jun), US Challenger Job Cuts (Jun), ADP Employment Change (Jun), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2). Speakers: ECB’s Vujcic, Cipollone, Lane, Lagarde; Fed’s Warsh; BoE’s Bailey; BoC’s Macklem. Supply: Australia, UK, Germany.
2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
MARKET WRAP
Stocks were green on Tuesday, with outperformance in the Nasdaq driven by strength in the tech sector, while Industrials also rallied. Performance was more mixed elsewhere, however, with the equal-weight S&P 500 closing flat. There was no obvious catalyst behind the move, although quarter-end rebalancing may have provided support.
Oil prices sold off throughout the session, with WTI trading on the USD 69.00/bbl handle and Brent on the USD 72.00/bbl handle, although little emerged from the mediated US-Iran discussions. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf spoke after settlement, striking a largely negative tone by stressing that passage through the Strait of Hormuz would only remain toll-free for 60 days and that Iran is prepared to return to war if necessary. He also suggested Iran is selling its oil at a 20% premium.
T-notes were lower across the curve with no obvious catalyst, although the latest JOLTS report reinforced the narrative of a resilient labour market ahead of Thursday’s NFP report. Treasury Secretary Bessent also touted the upcoming payrolls report as likely to be strong—just as he did ahead of the May release—while claiming he has not seen the data.
In FX, the Dollar was little changed, but the Yen continued to underperform, with USD/JPY hitting fresh multi-decade highs of 162.66 and keeping participants on intervention watch. The pair then saw a sharp intraday decline without any obvious headline catalyst, potentially reflecting a rate check, although the move was quickly pared. Meanwhile, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed as equities rallied through the session.
Looking ahead, attention turns to the Sintra central bank panel featuring BoE Governor Bailey, ECB President Lagarde and BoC Governor Macklem, before Thursday’s NFP report in the holiday-shortened week.
US
JOLTS: US job openings were broadly unchanged at 7.594mln in May (exp. 7.280mln, prev. 7.618mln revised to 7.561mln), remaining above expectations, while the vacancy rate held steady at 4.6%. Hires fell marginally to 5.17mln from 5.2mln, total separations ticked up slightly to 5.1mln from 5.04mln, quits were steady around 3.05mln with the quits rate unchanged at 1.9%, and layoffs and discharges rose slightly to 1.7mln from 1.67mln. Within the details, job openings increased in wholesale trade, while hires rose in the federal government and layoffs and discharges declined in arts, entertainment and recreation. April job openings were revised down by 33k, while hires and quits were revised higher. Pantheon Macroeconomics argues the report still paints an unconvincing picture of improving labour demand, noting that while professional and business services job openings were revised sharply lower, upward revisions in healthcare and leisure and hospitality largely offset the decline. Pantheon adds that May’s headline masked notable sectoral shifts, with a sharp fall in healthcare openings offset by gains in manufacturing, construction and distribution. The consultancy also stresses that too few businesses participate to take the data seriously.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: US consumer confidence for June rose to 91.2 from 90.6, but beneath the expected 94.4. The Expectations index lifted to 74.4 (exp. 75.2, prev. 71.4), while the Present situation index fell to 116.4 (exp. 123.0, prev. 119.4). Within the report, consumers’ views of current business conditions improved, but views of the labour market worsened; 24.9% said jobs were ‘plentiful’ 24.9% (prev. 24.8%), but 22.5% said jobs were ‘hard to get’ (prev. 19.8%). Ahead, consumers were more optimistic about future business conditions, as they were for their income prospects. Chief Economist Peterson added, “Consumer confidence inched up as falling oil prices in recent weeks provided some relief to consumer inflation fears”. She added, “Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were slightly more positive compared to last month. However, perceptions of the current labor market softened measurably as the percentage of consumers saying jobs were ‘hard to get’ rose to 22.5%, the highest level since January 2021 (22.8%). Moreover, consumers anticipate little change in the labor market six months from now. This was offset by improving expectations for business conditions and incomes.” Note, the survey period for this month’s preliminary results was June 1–23, encompassing an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (U6) SETTLED 9 + TICKS LOWER AT 109-28+
Yields rise across curve despite lower oil prices as attention turns to jobs data. At settlement, 2-year +3.2bps at 4.139%, 3-year +3.8bps at 4.147%, 5-year +4.7bps at 4.193%, 7-year +5.5bps at 4.306%, 10-year +5.4bps at 4.430%, 20-year +5.7bps at 4.924%, 30-year +5.1bps at 4.916%.
THE DAY: Treasury yields moved higher across the curve on Tuesday despite lower oil prices. There was no clear catalyst for the move, with yields drifting higher throughout the US session as participants remained reluctant to price out the Fed’s recent hawkish shift ahead of Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which Treasury Secretary Bessent touts to be a strong one.
Economic data was mixed. The JOLTS report was broadly constructive, with job openings little changed from the prior month but above expectations, while both the quits rate and vacancy rate remained unchanged. The data reinforced the view that labour demand remains stable. Consumer confidence improved from the prior month, although by less than expected. Within the report, the share of respondents saying jobs are plentiful was little changed, while the proportion saying jobs are hard to get rose to 22.5% from 19.8%, suggesting perceptions of labour market conditions softened somewhat. Elsewhere, the Chicago PMI declined from the prior month.
Fed commentary came from Hammack, who maintained a hawkish tone. She said the labour market remains around full employment, economic growth continues to look solid and inflation is still too high, adding that the Fed may ultimately need to consider further rate hikes. At the same time, she stressed she would approach upcoming meetings with an open mind and would not prejudge policy decisions, while acknowledging the risks that higher interest rates could pose to the broader economy.
Looking ahead, market attention turns to Chair Warsh’s appearance at the ECB’s Sintra Forum on Wednesday before focus shifts to Thursday’s US nonfarm payrolls report. The employment data will provide another important read on labour market conditions ahead of the July 29th FOMC meeting, where markets continue to expect the Fed to leave policy unchanged. Looking ahead to September, the market assigns an 80% probability of a 25bps hike. Regarding the NFP data, Treasury Secretary Bessent said he expects another strong jobs report, but claims he has not seen the data yet.
SUPPLY
Bills
US sold 6-week bills at a high rate of 3.655%, B/C 2.71x
US to sell USD 72bln of 17-week bills (prev. 69bln) on July 1st, USD 85bln of 4-week bills (prev. 70bln) and USD 85bln of 8-week bills (prev. 75bln) on July 2nd; all to settle July 7th
STIRS/OPERATIONS
Fed Pricing: 35bps (prev. Dec +33bps)
EFFR at 3.63% (prev. 3.63%), volumes at USD 123bln (prev. USD 120bln) on June 29th
SOFR at 3.62% (prev. 3.62%), volumes at USD 3.126tln (prev. USD 3.171tln) on June 29th
NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 26.90bln (prev. 3.55bln) across 10 counterparties (prev. 4) on June 30th
CRUDE
WTI (Q6) SETTLED USD 1.25 LOWER AT 69.50/BBL; BRENT (U6) SETTLES USD 0.96 LOWER AT 72.95/BBL
The crude complex saw slight losses, as benchmarks largely treaded water as participants await the Doha meeting. In regards to that, desks continue to digest different reporting around what, if anything, to expect from that, in terms of US-Iran discussions. While headline driven newsflow was sparse on Tuesday, the highlight was arguably a NYT citing sources report that Iran and US-allied Oman are moving forward with plans to collect payment for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, despite public American objections. Nonetheless, oil ground lower throughout the duration of the session to settle at troughs. Highlighting the narrow parameters of the energy space, especially by recent standards, WTI traded between USD 69.45-71.60/bbl and Brent USD 72.90-74.90/bbl. After-hours participants await the weekly private inventory report.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.78% at 7,499, NDX +1.69% at 30,276, DJI +0.265 at 52,318, RUT +0.52% at 3,026.
SECTORS: Technology +2.55%, Industrials +1.35%, Materials +0.55%, Consumer Discretionary +0.07%, Communication Services U/C, Financials -0.16%, Energy -0.63%, Health -1.30%, Consumer Staples -1.48%, Utilities -1.49%, Real Estate -2.18%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +1.51% at 6,326, Dax 40 +1.43% at 24,979, FTSE 100 +0.12% at 10,497, CAC 40 +0.44% at 8,404, FTSE MIB +1.01% at 51,682, IBEX 35 +0.37% at 19,459, PSI -0.29% at 9,133, SMI -0.21% at 14,194, AEX +1.39% at 1,080
STOCK SPECIFICS:
Concentrix (CNXC): EPS & rev. marginally missed w/ dismal next quarter & FY outlook
Digital Realty Trust (DLR): Agreed to buy Blackstone’s (BX) blended 64% equity interest in three fully leased Northern Virginia data centres for $3.5bln
AeroVironment (AVAV): Top & bottom line surpassed Wall St. consensus
Joby Aviation (JOBY): Partners with Toyota Motor, focusing on commercial production of Joby’s eVTOL aircraft.
Sable Offshore (SOC): Announced USD 100mln common stock offering and USD 300mln convertible senior note offering.
LCI Industries (LCII):Patrick Industries (PATK) & Co. to combine in an all-stock merger.
Jana Partners has built a new position in Everpure (P).
FDA will allows Zyn pouches to be marketed as “less harmful” for humans, in comparison to cigarettes, Axios reports. Of note for Philip Morris (PM).
US President Trump’s administration reportedly plans to pay smaller meatpackers to keep slaughtering cattle, reports WSJ. Of note for JBS, TSN and HRL.
FX
The Dollar Index was mixed against G10 FX peers, in what was pretty light newsflow with little heard from the US meeting with mediators in Qatar but more discussions are expected on Wednesday. Meanwhile, attention turns to June’s payrolls report on Thursday, brought forward a day on account of Independence Day on Friday. Back to Tuesday, US job openings were broadly unchanged, remaining above expectations, while Consumer Confidence disappointed. Ahead of that aforementioned data, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he wouldn’t be surprised if June jobs are ‘very strong’, but caveated that he hasn’t seen the June figures. Elsewhere, usual hawk Hammack said the Fed may need to consider rate hikes
As mentioned, G10 FX performance was mixed as the Antipodeans were the clear outperformers, while the Yen lagged. For the latter, overnight, the pair jumped above the 162.00 mark, amid commentary from Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara, as he initially suggested that he would not comment on FX, which saw the pair breach 162.00, but soon after he stated that they are always ready to take necessary action on FX. After that, Finance Minister Katayama warned that they will respond appropriately to currency moves at any time as needed, while action could include decisive action as agreed in the joint statement with the US. In addition, during the US session USD/JPY sharply dropped from 162.50 to 162.00, before paring, albeit on no headline newsflow.
AUD and NZD saw little headline newsflow, ahead of Aussie S&P Global PMI data overnight, but were the G10 beneficiaries as equities rose. As a reminder, latest RBA Minutes from the June meeting stated that policy needed to remain restrictive and will do what is needed to achieve price stability including raising rates if necessary.
CAD, GBP, and EUR were all little changed vs. the Greenback For the single-currency Euro, there was a bit of central bank speak and source reports. Firstly, ECB sources say rapid oil price retreat eases pressure on ECB to hike in July and September is seen as more likely, although a June inflation surprise could reignite talk of a July hike; added rate hike is not off agenda even though it may be delayed. Later, Chief Economist Lane highlighted that the oil price curve remains elevated, and that could suggest higher costs for the economy. All in all, policymakers have broadly reiterated data dependency and avoided any pre-commitment to July/September.
USA DATA RELEASES
US Home Prices Drop For 3rd Straight Month
Tuesday, Jun 30, 2026 – 09:09 AM
Home prices in America’s top 20 cities were expected to fall MoM for the 3rd straight month in April (the latest reported data from S&P Cotality Case-Shiller) and they did… but only marginally.
Prices fell 0.04% MoM in April (less than the 0.10% decline expected), but the annual change rose modestly from +0.88% YoY to +1.14% YoY…
“Midwest and Northeast markets are still leading moderate growth, while many Sun Belt and Western metros see ongoing declines.
Chicago was again the strongest market with a 6.5% annual gain, trailed by New York (3.8%) and Cleveland (3.2%).
Seattle’s 2.3% year-over-year drop was the steepest in April, with Denver (-1.8%), Tampa (-1.8%), Dallas (-1.6%), and Phoenix (-1.7%) also among the notable decliners.
The nearly 9 percent performance spread between Chicago and Seattle highlights how localized housing trends remain.
On a YoY basis, Chicago reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 6.5% increase in April, followed by New York and Cleveland with annual increases of 3.8% and 3.2%, respectively.
Seattle posted the lowest return in April, falling 2.3%.
The chart below compares year-over-year returns for different housing price ranges (tiers) in Chicago.
“The affordability pinch remains a key headwind,” Godec concluded.
“After dipping below 6% earlier this year, 30-year mortgage rates climbed back to 6.3% in April, keeping financing costs elevated. In this higher-rate environment, home price growth remains constrained, with housing largely treading water in nominal terms and falling in real terms.”
Finally, with inflation accelerating to 3.8% in April, U.S. home values have now declined in real terms for an 11th straight month, further eroding inflation-adjusted housing wealth.
END
Another JOLT: Jobs Opening Smash Expectations, Despite Another Drop In Number Of Hires
Tuesday, Jun 30, 2026 – 10:35 AM
Another month, another whopping beat by the BLS JOLTS job openings report.
One month after the April JOLTS report came out with a whopping 9-sigma beat to estimates, when it showed that in April the US added a whopping 731K job openings to 7.618 million (and up 520K from a year ago), smashing estimates of 6.9 million, moments ago the BLS reported that in May, the number of total job openings printed at 7.594 million, almost as if it was designed to post another improvement from last month’s downward revised 7.585MM (from 7.618MM), and once again smashed estimates of 7.296MM.
While not as historic as last month’s record 9-sigma beat, today’s print was still a solid 2-sigma beat to the median estimate.
It was also the 5th consecutive beat of estimates and 8th in the past 10!
Where did the openings come from? According to the BLS,the notable increase came from an increase in wholesale trade (+71,000), but as can be seen from the table below, there were also increases in manufacturing and leisure and hospitality; on the other side, openings dropped in financial services, and private education.
Notably, unlike last month’s record increase in Professional and Business service job openings in April, May’s increase for the category was a tame 12K to 1.485 million. Also of note, Federal government dropped by 14K to 83K, the second lowest print of 2026 and not much above the record low hit last August, even as the total number of government job openings rose driven by an increase in state and local.
The continued strength in job openings prints, coupled with the modest increase in unemployed workers means that after 9 months of labor surplus, we now have a second consecutive month of more job openings than unemployed workes, and in May the surplus was 287K, the biggest surplus since Jan 2025, and a reversal to the “deficit” regime observed since last July.
The latest JOLTS report also means that after falling back to 0.9x in March, in April the ratio of job openings rose over 1.0x and was the highest since January 2025.
But while the job openings number was very strong for another month, this month we saw continued weakness in hires and barely any improvement in quits, In May, the number of Quits dropped to 5.170MM from 5.215MM, again approaching the post covid lows; quits – or the “take his job and shove it” indicator – rose modestly to 3.065MM from 3.043MM, and followed the 183K plunge in March.
It goes without saying that a surge in job openings while hires are dropping, and few people are voluntarily leaving their jobs, while payrolls are growing (as we will find out on Thursday), leads one to scratch their head just what is going on here, besides data massaging of course.
In any case, since this hires number feeds directly into the payrolls calculations (after netting out separations) this explains why the May payrolls report surged by 172K, even if the JOLTS implied number is barely a third as strong.
Overall, this was a very strong JOLTS report, and shows that after some significant weakness in late 2025, US labor market has continued to stabilize throughout 2026. Of course, the report also lags the payrolls report by a month, which is why it gives us little insight into what Thurday’s jobs report will be, although if the hires less separations dataset is any indication, it suggests that the June print will come well below expectations.
Conference Board Consumer Survey Signals Ugly Job Market, Weakest ‘Present Situation’ In Over 5 Years
Tuesday, Jun 30, 2026 – 10:16 AM
Amid a plethora of revisions (lower), The Conference Board’s measure of Americans’ Consumer Confidence rose very modestly in June (from 90.6 to 91.2 – a big miss on the headline print’s expectation of 94.4).
However, while Expectations rose to their highest level of the year, the Present Situation tumbled to its lowest since March 2021…
“Consumer confidence inched up in June as falling oil prices in recent weeks provided some relief to consumer inflation fears,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.
“Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were slightly more positive compared to last month.
However, perceptions of the current labor market softened measurably as the percentage of consumers saying jobs were ‘hard to get’ rose to 22.5%, the highest level since January 2021 (22.8%).
Moreover, consumers anticipate little change in the labor market six months from now.
This was offset by improving expectations for business conditions and incomes.”
Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations were less elevated…
Among age groups, confidence for consumers under age 35 remained the highest, but confidence for all age groups trended downward on a six-month moving average basis.
By income, on a six-month moving average basis, confidence was mixed or little changed across all categories.
By generation, confidence fell the most for the Silent Generation but was stable or lower for others on a six-month moving average basis.
By political affiliation, confidence among Independents and Democrats rose while Republicans were somewhat less positive on a month-over-month basis.
Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism in June.
References to prices and oil and gas eased in frequency but remain elevated. Mentions of war, geopolitics, and conflict eased, reflecting some easing of consumer concerns about the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East.
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
Johnson Says Reconciliation Is The Only Path For The SAVE Act
Monday, Jun 29, 2026 – 04:40 PM
Speaker Mike Johnson returned to the Capitol this afternoon after several hours at the White House, telling reporters that the only viable path to enact the SAVE Act is to attach it to a reconciliation bill – and that work is already underway.
“The only way to get the SAVE Act to the president’s desk, we’ve been shown many times, is to put it on a reconciliation bill, so that is in the process,” Johnson said, adding that he believes a version of the measure would “clearly” comply with the Senate’s Byrd Rule.
Earlier today, Punchbowl News’reported that House Republican leaders are considering a modified version of the bill structured as a $4 billion grant program. The grants would incentivize states to adopt citizenship verification and voter ID requirements for elections. The idea is still in its early stages, with no guarantee it will ultimately work or pass procedural hurdles.
This approach aims to frame the policy as a budgetary/spending matter, which is more likely to survive the Senate parliamentarian’s review under the Byrd Rule.
The SAVE Act (Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act) requires documentary proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote in federal elections and photo identification to cast a ballot. The House has passed versions of the bill multiple times, but it has repeatedly stalled in the Senate due to the 60-vote filibuster threshold.
Republicans argue the measure strengthens election integrity and closes potential loopholes. Critics contend it is unnecessary (federal law already prohibits non-citizens from voting in federal elections), could create barriers for eligible voters, and amounts to voter suppression.
Reconciliation allows the majority party to pass budget-related legislation with a simple majority in the Senate. However, the Byrd Rule limits what can be included – non-budgetary or “extraneous” provisions are generally prohibited.
Bottom line: House Republican leaders, aligned with the White House, are actively exploring a reconciliation vehicle for a revised SAVE Act.
END
where it should be!!
Supreme Court: States Can Ban Trans Athletes From Girls’ Sports
Tuesday, Jun 30, 2026 – 10:20 AM
The Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled that states can block biological transgender males from competing in girls’ sports. In a 6-3 ruling, the court gave an iron-clad answer to the question.
Writing for the majority in West Virginia v. B.P.J. (consolidated with Little v. Hecox), Justice Brett Kavanaugh held that neither Title IX nor the Equal Protection Clause requires schools to carve out an exception for transgender athletes who’ve undergone hormone therapy or never experienced male puberty. States can draw the line at biological sex, full stop – no judge-administered athlete-by-athlete fairness hearings required. The ruling reverses both the Fourth Circuit (which sided with West Virginia’s B.P.J.) and the Ninth Circuit (which sided with Idaho’s Lindsay Hecox), and lands squarely in the wake of last year’s Skrmetti decision, extending its “this is a sex classification, not a transgender classification” framework from medical care straight into the locker room.
Background
Roughly half the states – approximately 27 – have enacted laws in recent years restricting participation in girls’ and women’s school sports to those whose biological sex, as determined at birth, matches the team category. These measures, often titled “Fairness in Women’s Sports” acts or similar, reflect concerns over competitive fairness, safety, and the preservation of opportunities for biological females amid rising participation by transgender athletes.
The two cases before the Court arise from Idaho and West Virginia.
Idaho’s law (enacted 2020) categorically bars transgender girls and women from girls’ and women’s teams in public elementary, secondary, and postsecondary schools. It defines eligibility based on biological sex and requires sex verification (often involving invasive procedures) for athletes on girls’ teams but not boys’ teams.
West Virginia’s law (enacted 2021) similarly requires that participation on teams designated for girls or women be based on biological sex.
Lindsay Hecox, a biological male, challenged Idaho’s law after seeking to compete on Boise State University’s women’s track and cross-country teams – and later participated in club sports. Hecox’s lawsuit alleged violations of the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment, claiming the law discriminates on the basis of sex and transgender status and imposes unequal verification burdens.
B.P.J., another biological male who has identified as a girl since third grade and has taken puberty blockers and estrogen, challenged West Virginia’s ban after competing on their high school’s girls’ track and cross-country teams. The suit claims violations of both the Equal Protection Clause and Title IX (the federal law prohibiting sex discrimination in federally funded education programs).
Lower federal courts blocked enforcement of both laws. The 9th Circuit found Idaho’s measure likely violated equal protection by intending to exclude transgender girls/women and by imposing sex-based verification only on girls’ teams. The 4th Circuit held West Virginia’s law likely violated Title IX by discriminating against B.P.J. on the basis of sex.
At oral arguments on January 13 of this year, the states and supporting parties (including the Trump administration) argued that the laws classify on the basis of biological sex – a classification long accepted in sports to ensure fairness and safety given average physiological differences in strength, speed, muscle mass, bone density, and cardiovascular capacity that emerge after male puberty. They contended that sex-separated teams are permissible and even required under Title IX regulations, that states need not create perfect individual accommodations, and that allowing transgender girls/women (even those on hormone therapy) into female categories undermines the very purpose of sex-segregated sports. They emphasized that transgender boys can generally compete on boys’ teams, so the laws do not single out transgender status per se.
Challengers countered that the bans discriminate on the basis of transgender status and sex, that many transgender girls/women (especially those who never experienced full male puberty or who have undergone hormone suppression) lack meaningful competitive advantages, and that categorical exclusion stigmatizes transgender students, deprives them of athletic opportunities, and violates both constitutional equal protection and Title IX’s promise of equal access. They urged individualized assessments rather than blanket rules.
Justices’ questioning suggested a likely majority inclined to uphold the state laws, with conservative members emphasizing biological differences, state authority over education and athletics, and deference to longstanding sex-based categories in sports
END
Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Birthright Citizenship Executive Order
In a massive 194-page, 5-4 ruling, the Court affirmed a District Court ruling, holding that Executive Order 14160 – Trump’s attempt to deny automatic citizenship to children born in the U.S. to parents who are undocumented or only temporarily present – violates the Fourteenth Amendment’s Citizenship Clause. Chief Justice Roberts wrote the majority opinion, joined by Sotomayor, Kagan, Barrett, and Jackson.
Justice Kavanaugh provided the sixth vote against the order while explicitly rejecting the majority’s constitutional theory, arguing the EO fails only because it conflicts with a 1940s immigration statute – leaving the door open for Congress, not the Constitution, to revisit the question.
Background
Birthright citizenship – the principle that nearly everyone born on U.S. soil automatically becomes a U.S. citizen – has stood as a foundational element of American law and identity for more than 150 years. Its modern constitutional anchor is the Citizenship Clause of the 14th Amendment, ratified in 1868 after the Civil War: “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”
The clause was enacted primarily to overturn the Supreme Court’s 1857 Dred Scott v. Sandford decision (which denied citizenship to black people) and to guarantee citizenship to formerly enslaved people and their descendants. It established a clear rule of jus soli (citizenship by birth on the soil) with narrow historical exceptions, such as children of foreign diplomats or members of invading armies.
The Supreme Court’s landmark 1898 decision in United States v. Wong Kim Ark cemented this broad understanding. Wong Kim Ark, born in San Francisco to Chinese parents who were legal residents but ineligible for naturalization under then-existing exclusionary laws, was ruled a U.S. citizen. Justice Horace Gray’s majority opinion affirmed that the 14th Amendment codifies “the ancient and fundamental rule of citizenship by birth within the territory, in the allegiance and under the protection of the country,” applying to children of resident aliens without regard to race or the precise immigration status of the parents (beyond the traditional exceptions).
For well over a century, this interpretation has governed practice: federal agencies, courts, and both political parties treated birth on U.S. soil as conferring citizenship almost universally, regardless of whether a parent was undocumented, a temporary visa holder, or a lawful permanent resident.
The Modern Challenges
In recent decades, conservatives, immigration restriction advocates, and President Donald Trump have advanced a narrower reading. They argue that “subject to the jurisdiction thereof” requires a deeper form of political allegiance or domicile – essentially limiting automatic citizenship to children of U.S. citizens or lawful permanent residents. In short: the clause was chiefly meant for freed slaves and their children, that extending it to children of undocumented immigrants creates “anchor babies,”encourages illegal immigration and birth tourism, and imposes costs on the country. They point to certain 19th-century commentaries and historical practices in other nations as support.
On January 20, 2025 – his first day in office for his second term – President Trump signed Executive Order 14160, “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship.” The order directs federal agencies not to recognize U.S. citizenship for children born in the United States after February 20, 2025, in two main scenarios:
The mother was unlawfully present in the U.S. and the father is neither a U.S. citizen nor a lawful permanent resident (LPR/green card holder); or
The mother’s presence was lawful but temporary (e.g., student, work, or tourist visa) and the father is neither a citizen nor LPR.
The administration maintains this is consistent with the 14th Amendment’s original meaning and with the statutory codification in 8 U.S.C. § 1401(a), which largely tracks the constitutional language.
The Path to the Supreme Court
The order never took effect. Federal district courts in multiple jurisdictions quickly struck it down as unconstitutional, with one judge describing it as “blatantly unconstitutional.” In June 2025, the Supreme Court addressed related procedural issues in Trump v. CASA (and companion cases), ruling 6-3 that district courts generally lack authority to issue universal/nationwide injunctions. This narrowed some protections but left the core constitutional question unresolved.
Today’s SCOTUS case, Trump v. Barbara (No. 25-365), stemmed from a class-action lawsuit filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Hampshire. Plaintiffs include families challenging the order on behalf of themselves and a nationwide class of affected children. One named representative is “Barbara,” a Honduran asylum applicant whose child was due in late 2025; other plaintiffs include individuals on temporary visas (e.g., a Taiwanese student whose daughter was born in April 2025) and a Brazilian applicant for permanent residence whose son was born in March 2025. The district court issued a preliminary injunction and provisionally certified a nationwide class, finding the plaintiffs likely to succeed on the merits. The Supreme Court granted certiorari before judgment from the First Circuit.
During oral arguments held April 1, U.S. Solicitor General D. John Sauer defended the order – emphasizing historical sources, the role of “domicile” in Wong Kim Ark, and contemporary policy concerns. Plaintiffs’ counsel Cecillia Wang urged the Court to reaffirm Wong Kim Ark as establishing a fixed, bright-line rule rooted in text, history, and longstanding practice.
Questioning from the justices spanned the ideological spectrum and focused heavily on Wong Kim Ark, the meaning of “subject to the jurisdiction thereof,” and whether the government’s proposed limitations could be squared with precedent and the amendment’s text. Observers noted significant skepticism toward the administration’s position, with several justices highlighting the breadth of the 1898 ruling and questioning efforts to distinguish it or limit its application based on parental status. A decision was widely expected by the end of the Court’s term (June 30, 2026) or shortly thereafter.
As Affordability Fears Mount, $100,000 Salary Considered Low-Income In 7 California Counties
Tuesday, Jun 30, 2026 – 05:45 AM
A six-figure salary is considered low-income in a handful of California counties, according to the 2026 income limits set by the state’s Department of Housing & Community Development.
These new income limits, which took effect June 23, are used to calculate the cost of affordable housing for certain state housing assistance programs.
Most counties saw an increase in the cutoff for what is considered low-income, and seven counties—Santa Cruz, San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Santa Clara, Orange, and Santa Barbara—had their cutoffs set at six-figure amounts.
As Cynthia Cai details below for The Epoch Times, Santa Cruz County has the highest cutoff, with a limit set at $122,200 for a single-person household. This is a nearly 10 percent increase from the previous year, which set the low-income cutoff at $111,100.
For each additional person added to the household, the income cutoff is adjusted so that “income limits should be higher for larger families and lower for smaller families,” the Department of Housing & Community Development wrote in its memo.
Following Santa Cruz are three more coastal counties: San Francisco, San Mateo, and Marin.
These three counties have cutoffs of $117,700 for single-person households, which is also an increase from the previous year’s limit of $109,700.
The low-income limit in Santa Clara is set at $113,700 for single-person households, and in Santa Barbara it is set at $102,000.
Two counties, however, are maintaining their low-income cutoffs from last year. Solano County will continue to use $76,950 as its limit, and Shasta will continue to use $54,500.
These figures come as housing and affordability remain top issues for residents.
“California home prices continue to be much more expensive than the rest of the US,” the state’s Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) reported in its 2026 Housing Affordability Tracker.
A mid-tier home, or the average-value middle-market property, costs around $775,000 in California, according to the LAO. That’s nearly double the national average of $398,771 for a mid-tier house, according to Redfin.
The Golden State saw a rapid home price increase of 14 percent per year during the pandemic from 2020 to 2022, the LAO stated. But home price growth has slowed down since then. The average price of a mid-tier home is currently increasing by approximately 1 percent per year.
“While home prices have stabilized, housing has become less affordable for most Californians in recent years” due to incomes failing to keep pace with the increase in housing costs, the LAO added.
As a result, only about 23 percent of households would qualify for mid-tier home mortgages in 2026, down from roughly 31 percent in 2019.
The state’s low homeownership and higher-than-average rental costs and home values were also noted in a recent report by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), which said the state “has a housing problem.”
“Homeownership is the second lowest in the nation, and housing has become a dominant reason people leave the state,” the report states.
“Two of every three Californians say the cost of housing is a ‘big problem’ in their part of California.”
Ownership is particularly low among young adults, with about 31 percent of people between 30 and 34 years old reporting owning their own home. The national average for homeownership among that age group is about 49 percent.
Rental costs in California also exceed the national average by about 40 percent, the PPIC reported. The average cost to rent is about $2,159 in California compared with the national average of $1,526.
The PPIC noted that coastal cities face the highest costs, and large numbers of people are relocating inland, where costs are lower but housing supply struggles to keep up with demand.
END
AFFORDABILIITY?
Obamacare Enrollment Drops By 3 Million; Experts Disagree On Cause
Obamacare enrollment declined by nearly 3 million in 2026, sparking renewed debate about the affordability of healthcare in America.
National politicians and policy experts disagreed on the reasons for the dip in enrollment, with some saying that it was driven by rising premiums.
Others said the decline was evidence that program integrity measures taken by the Trump administration were successful in rooting out fraud and waste.
The program grew significantly during the declared National Health Emergency from 2021 through 2024, when eligibility verification requirements were relaxed and participants were automatically reenrolled.
Enrollment peaked at 22.1 million last year and dropped to 19.2 million as of February, according to federal data released June 26.
Though that’s still higher than in any year except 2025, some analysts interpreted the decline as a massive loss of coverage resulting from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025.
“One year later, the Trump administration’s policies are bleeding the revenue of the American tax system and have left millions of Americans without health coverage and food assistance,” Amina Khalique and Natasha Murphy wrote in a June 25 article for Center for American Progress, writing on the anniversary of the bill’s passage.
Others including Brian Blase, president of Paragon Health Institute, say that the changes mostly reverted to pre-pandemic coverage and policy rules, which had been an incentive for fraud.
“Excessive subsidies and zero-premium plans created unusually strong incentives for improper enrollment, while weak verification systems, permissive enrollment pathways, and insufficient oversight allowed those incentives to be exploited at scale,” Blase wrote in a June analysis.
The Trump Administration has focused on program integrity, preventing about 2.9 million enrollees from receiving Obamacare subsidies that they didn’t qualify for, according to a statement from the assistant secretary for Health and Human Services.
The government estimates that 2.6 million fraudulent enrollments remain in the program, down from an estimated high of 5.6 million last year.
Either way, the changes left millions uninsured, according to some experts.
About 9 percent of 2025 Obamacare enrollees became uninsured as of March, according to a survey conducted by health research group KFF.
“While the Trump administration attributes this drop in enrollment to their attempts to address fraud, this coverage loss happened at the same time millions of people faced steep increases in their premium payments,” Cynthia Cox, a senior vice president at KFF, wrote on social media on June 29.
“Real people lost their health insurance or are now paying more,” Cox said.
The average monthly premium for 2026 is $178, compared to $113 in 2025, according to KFF. However, the 2026 premium is lower than the 2021 premium after adjusting for inflation.
The benchmark silver premium, which is used to set subsidy rates, increased by about 25 percent in 2026, according to KFF.
Democrats seized on the enrollment data to criticize President Donald Trump and Republicans over healthcare affordability.
“Trump and congressional Republicans let healthcare premiums explode and now millions of Americans can’t afford coverage,” Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) wrote on social media on June 29.
“That’s not right,” said Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, responding to the argument that premium increases have forced people off of the program.
“The reality is we have a lot of fake people on the policies,” Oz told Fox News on June 29.
Oz cited that 40 percent of enrollees never use the policies as proof that many either do not want the coverage, do not realize they have it, or were fraudulently enrolled.
Prior to the introduction of the enhanced subsidies in 2021, Obamacare enrollment had declined for four years.
END
Trump Suggests He May Not Sign Bipartisan Housing Affordability Bill
President Donald Trump indicated on June 29 that he may not sign a bill that Congress passed that aims to make housing more affordable.
Trump told reporters at the White House in Washington that he has not decided whether to sign the housing bill, the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which Congress approved in a bipartisan fashion earlier in the month and targets permitting times, boosts financial incentives, and aims to make it easier to obtain mortgages.
“I think it’s so unimportant compared to the Save America Act,” Trump said.
“To me, compared to the Save America Act, just about everything is a big yawn.”
Trump had been poised to sign the housing legislation, but canceled those plans so as to try to force Congress to pass the Save America Act, which would require voters to prove they are American citizens to vote in federal elections.
The House of Representatives has passed the act, but it has stalled in the Senate, where Democrats oppose it over concerns that it could exclude voters who meet the standards but lack the necessary documents.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said over the weekend that the housing bill would be transmitted to Trump on Monday and that he was confident it would become law.
Johnson said the bill was a priority for Republicans because it would bring down housing costs and reduce regulation.
Trump has said that concerns about affordability are overblown.
“They say, ‘Oh, he doesn’t realize prices are high,’” he said in a speech in December 2025.
“Prices are coming down very substantially. But they have a new word. They always have a hoax. The new word is affordability.”
He said more recently that he does not consider the financial situation of Americans when deciding on next steps in the war with Iran.
Trump said Monday at the White House, where he signed a directive expanding Americans’ ability to repair their own vehicles, that the housing bill had not yet been sent to him.
“It’s coming, I understand,” he said. “And then I’ll make a decision.”
Once Trump receives the bill, he has 10 days, excluding any Sundays, to veto or sign the legislation.
If he does not act within that period, the bill will become law automatically. If Trump vetoes the legislation, Congress can override the veto with a two-thirds vote in each chamber.
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
KING NEWS
The King Report June 30, 2026 Issue 7773
Independent View of the News
On Monday, the South Korean KOSPI sank 3.2%. This caused NQUS to tumble from +317.00 in early Sunday night trading to a negative reading. However, Q2’s end is nigh, and desperation is high. So, a prodigious manipulation appeared during the final 90 minutes of Nikkei trading that lifted Asian bourses.
Despite the Asian manipulation, or maybe because or it, the yen/$ fell to a 40-year low of 161.96.
BBG: South Korea’s stock market is up about 200% year-on-year, fueled by retail investors and an AI chip rally. But with such a heavy reliance on AI stocks, can it last?http://bit.ly/4xKtCpj
The Asian late rebound emboldened traders to play for the Monday Rally and the manipulation to game Q2 performance. AI bubble stocks and Fangs – the most over-held issues and most popular trading sardines, led the rally. Gasoline and oil rallied sharply. Bonds fell a tad. Precious metal fell smartly.
As we noted last week, gasoline has formed an effective double bottom in June and is trying to break higher. On Monday, July gasoline hit its highest level (305.07) since June 12 (309). Gasoline has a different view about the US-Iran situation than stocks or another supply/demand dynamic is at work.
August WTI Oil continue to move lower, a divergence with gasoline.
Iran says ‘no technical talks’ with US this week in Doha Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said on Monday that “no technical talks” with the US are scheduled this week in the Qatari capital Doha, refuting US media reports, Anadolu reports. Gharibabadi said media reports about holding technical-working group talks between Tehran and Washington in Doha “are not confirmed,” state news agency IRNA reported. “Technical meetings of the working groups are not scheduled for this week,” he added… “The first round of technical talks within the designated working groups will be held once conditions are met and after agreement is reached on the date and venue,” he added. https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260629-iran-says-no-technical-talks-with-us-this-week-in-doha/
@HormuzReport: A source close to Iran’s top negotiator Ghalibaf says Iran rejects Trump’s claims—clarifying that Tehran did not request negotiations. It was Trump who requested talks after Iran’s rejection of the Doha technical meeting narrative. He added “Iran is currently reviewing Trump’s request. No decision has been made, and Tehran has made clear it does not negotiate under threats”. Ghalibaf has previously stated that Iran “gain[s] concessions not through talks, but through missiles” and that Tehran “do[es] not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats”.
@realDonaldTrump: IRAN HAS REQUESTED A MEETING. IT WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW IN DOHA! President DJT Jun 29, 2026, 6:31 AM Purported Iranian “mouthpiece” Seyed Mohammad Marandi @s_m_marandi: Of course, the request came from the Trump regime, but Iran will not be sending a delegation to such a meeting.
Axios’ @BarakRavid: Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will depart today for Doha, where they will meet on Tuesday with the Prime Minister of Qatar and additional senior officials to discuss talks with Iran. On Wednesday, the technical teams of the United States and Iran are expected to hold separate meetings with the mediators from Qatar and Pakistan, according to a senior White House official. (Team Trump is meeting in Doha on Tuesday for talks with Qatar, not Iran, officials! Ergo reports that Team Trump would meet with Iranian officials in Doha today are fake news!)
ESUs opened modestly lower on Sunday night but quickly rallied to 7455.75 (+54.00) at 19:45 ET. They fell to 7420.75 at 22:15 ET on the sharp declines in Asian bourses. ESUs then commenced a plodding rally to 747.75 at 7:28 ET. After a dip to 7444.50 at 9:27 ET, ESUs soared on rapid buying for the NYSE opening. ESUs jumped to 7490.00 at 9:52 ET. A pro dump appeared; ESUs tumbled to 7409.00 at 10:13 ET. The usual suspects eagerly bought the waterfall dip. ESUs rebound sharply to 7464.00 at 10:30 ET and then intractably rallied to a daily high of 7505.00 (+103.25) at 15:59 ET.
@Osint613 on Monday afternoon: Trump on Iran: “The meeting in Doha is going to be perhaps important, perhaps not. We’re going to find out… It’s really very simple. It’s the denuclearization of Iran. We don’t want them to have a nuclear weapon, and they’re not going to have a nuclear weapon.”
Borrowed money fueling US stock rally is getting more expensive Inflows into leveraged exchange-traded products, rising stock options trading volumes and record hedge-fund exposure are collectively straining the global balance-sheet capacity of the large banks that offer equity financing, driving up the costs of the loans that underlie much stock trading… Primary dealers — banks that trade directly with the Federal Reserve and facilitate markets across the financial world — are carrying record equity repo exposure, surpassing $220 billion… Andy Constan, founder and chief investment officer at Damped Spring Advisors, said rising asset prices have become a critical support for U.S. consumption at a time when real wage growth is weak. “If the stock market just stays where it is, that influence disappears,” he said… https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/borrowed-money-fueling-us-stock-rally-is-getting-more-expensive/ar-AA26NaOW
We must reiterate that for Team Trump, the stock market IS the economy! “Those who live by the sword stock market will die by the sword stock market.”
Ford rehires ‘gray beard’ engineers after AI falls short Ford executives said they have hired 350 veteran engineers — some of them were former employees, while others had been working at suppliers — after artificial intelligence and automated systems failed to deliver the desired quality level… https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/28/ford-rehires-gray-beard-engineers-after-ai-falls-short/
Positive aspects of previous session Manipulation to game Q2 performance appeared; AI stocks and Fangs led the charge. Precious and industrial metals declined smartly.
Negative aspects of previous session The Sunday night rally was the product of a lie about US and Iran meeting today in Doha. Gasoline soared; WTI Oil rally smartly.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Who can be trusted in reports about US-Iran?
First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour:Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7411.21 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7444.32 (15:58 ET); 7348.88 (10:15 ET)
@60Minutes: Source after source told 60 Minutes they fear today’s insider trading scandal about military secrets is tomorrow’s national security scandal. If market-watchers can spot irregular trades, surely enemies can, too. And they’ll make their war plans accordingly. https://cbsn.ws/4euZfvx “We spotted nine Polymarket accounts, all connected, who made, collectively, $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military operations,” says Nicolas Vaiman, co-founder of the small data analytics firm Bubblemaps. “And now here’s the crazy part: 98% win rate.” https://cbsn.ws/4oOI7Ef On March 23, more than $800 million was staked on the chance of oil prices dropping. Fifteen minutes later, an announcement from the president sent the price of oil plummeting by more than 10%. It has not been determined if the trade was made with inside information or if the trader was in the U.S.https://cbsn.ws/3R2J2Vd
When trading in NYC (eighties), we became friends with a trader that had worked for Marc Rich. He told us that he knew the floor broker at the COMEX that handled the account of an OPEC Minister from a key Arab nation. So, the insider trading in energy products most likely emanates from the Middle East.
@ManzTrades: US + Iran War Hours of Operation: Monday: Closed; Tuesday: Closed; Wednesday: Closed; Thursday: Closed; Friday: Open at 4PM EST. Saturday: Open; Sunday: Closed by 5PM EST.
Renowned short-side investor @RealJimChanos: At this point don’t we have to assume that Iran is in on the grift…? It’s literally the same story leaked every Sunday afternoon.
@bennybigbull: This is actually becoming a joke and a blatant manipulation of the markets. Strikes made right after market close, and then stopping the strikes right before futures open. (Social media teems with similar posts/complaints) @leadlagreport: You are investing in the most manipulated stock market in history…
Fox Managing Editor, Politics @WillRicci: Ten days ago, Vance was everywhere selling the MOU as peace, progress, and a performance-based deal. Now the follow-through is tit-for-tat strikes across the Gulf, Iran is skipping technical talks, and Vance’s defense has shrunk to: they can “pick up the phone.” And then the reframe. The man who sold the deal now says America wins “deal or no deal.” That is what happens when the salesman starts distancing himself from the product — good luck with that. Vance made himself the face of a deal that bet terrorists could be made normal with time, oil money and investment incentives. Rubio did something savvier & smarter: he defended Vance publicly, kept the admin unified, and left the ideological bet where it belonged — with the man who sold it. He avoided a press cycle turf war & distanced himself from an Iran MOU that depends on a revolutionary terror regime suddenly acting like Switzerland with centrifuges. Now the deal is crumbling, Vance owns the theory, and Rubio can still own obvious alternative of pressure, leverage then terms. (In response to betting markets that show Rubio is now favored for the 2028 GOP Prez Nomination)
Israel could go to war with Iran ‘tomorrow,’ Katz warns – Defense minister says IDF has been ordered to prepare an independent strike plan, warning that any Iranian missile fire at Israel would trigger a powerful response while US-led talks continue. https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hjrgfzgmgl
Ch 24’s @AmichaiStein1: Israel Defense Minister Katz regarding the Iranian front: “I have instructed the IDF to prepare for Operation ‘Blue and White’ in Iran.” “There were external actors who were expected to join the operation to take down the regime, but they were prevented from doing so“. (Reportedly Trump cancelled the attempted regime overthrow.)
N12 News’ @AmitSegal: Defense Minister Katz in a briefing to military reporters: Trump prevented Hezbollah’s collapse – “Trump linked Iran to Lebanon because he wanted to close a deal with Tehran. That prevented delivering a massive blow to Hezbollah across Lebanon.” “The enormous tunnel destroyed yesterday was not previously known to us. We found tunnels the likes of which we’ve never seen anywhere. To blow them up, we’ll need hundreds of tons of explosives.” “The threat of an invasion of Israel from Lebanon still exists—there are 1,200 Hezbollah terrorists from the border to the Litani River. I informed the commander of U.S. Central Command—we will not withdraw from the security zones in Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon… The fighting with Iran will resume either because Trump decides negotiations are exhausted, or because Iran fires on Israel. If Iran attacks—this will be the Third Iran War.” https://nypost.com/2026/06/29/us-news/trump-lutnicks-sons-stand-to-gain-big-profits-from-billion-dollar-mining-deal-report/
Trump, Lutnick’s sons stand to gain big profits from billion-dollar mining deal: report After businesses tied to the families helped secure a $1.6 billion mining deal in Kazakhstan… Dominari Securities — which is housed at Trump Tower in New York and partly owned by the president’s two eldest sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump — had joined other investors to take a 20% stake in a company related to the project… At the same time, Cantor Fitzgerald — an investment company controlled by Lutnick’s family and overseen by his sons Brandon and Kyle Lutnick — helped one of the investors working with Dominari raise $210 million in new capital…
@realDonaldTrump: Gasoline Retailers must get their Prices down, IMMEDIATELY! They’re too high considering that Oil is now at $68 a Barrel and heading south. The Retailers must quickly react to this statement and do what they know is right — DROP YOUR PRICE FOR OUR GREAT AMERICAN PEOPLE! There will be no gauging, which is totally illegal. If Retailers don’t do this, big problems lie ahead! Start targeting around the $2.50 a Gallon number, and California should stop charging such heavy Taxes on their Gasoline. Soon the Tax will be higher than the Product itself, and the United States will not stand for it, nor will the People of California, who are being abused by these ridiculous Taxes, and by their own Government… (DJT does NOT understand the crack spread) Jun 29, 2026, 6:39 PM
Today is the end of Q2. The key dynamics are: Was the manipulation yesterday, the peak intensity of the manipulation to embellish Q2 performance? Secondly, will Q2 portfolio rebalancing impact stocks? The rebalancing will be out of stock/into bonds, as well as reducing portfolio exposure to AI-related stocks.
ESUs are -1.50, NQUs are +12.00; WTI is -$0.42 & gasoline is -1.94¢; and USUs are +1/32 at 20:15.
Expected Impact Economic Data: April FHFA house Price Index 0.2% m/m; April S&P Cotality 20 city house prices -0.14% m/m & 0.92% y/y; June Chicago PMI 55.4; June Conference Board Consumer Confidence 94.6; Jolts jab opening 7.288m
S&P Index 50-day MA: 7371; 100-day MA: 7068; 150-day MA: 7002; 200-day MA: 6930 DJIA 50-day MA: 50,366;100-day MA: 49,154; 150-day MA: 48,908; 200-day MA: 48,344 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (7440.4 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6078.33 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6861.16 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 7319.33 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 7396.14 triggers a sell signal
US Supreme Court justices disclose millions in book earnings, teaching incomehttp://reut.rs/4va2Iod
Bad Bunny’s record label gifted Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor $4,000 in concert ticketshttps://trib.al/gnjJDHD
Supreme court upholds counting of late ballots in Mississippi case (5-4) Mississippi passed a law in 2020 in response to the COVID pandemic that allows mail-in ballots to be counted so long as they are postmarked by Election Day and received within five days of it. The 5-4 decision saw Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson join with Barrett… (The 2 squishes regularly vote with the libs) “The election-day statutes say nothing about ballot receipt, and we cannot add to the words Congress chose.” The implications of the case are fairly narrow, as the case only determined that federal law did not bar states from tabulating ballots received after election day but postmarked by it.,, https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/hold-supreme-court-rules-mississippi
Justice Alito warns the SCOTUS’s ruling on late ballots provides “open opportunities” for voter fraud.
The logistics of producing bogus USPS postmarks are being studied and readied now!
@EpecTeam: SCOTUS ruling in Watson v RNC raises the stakes for the U.S. Postal Service to confirm whether a mail-in ballot has been properly post-marked by election day, likely leading to more litigation in cases where ballots fail to be delivered in time. We expect the SCOTUS ruling on mail-in ballots to create even more pressure for the Senate to pass the SAVE America Act, which includes provisions for mail-in ballots that protect overseas voters under the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA).
BBG: The court ruled that Fed Governor Lisa Cook can stay in her job while she fights Trump’s bid to oust her over unproven mortgage fraud allegations… Voting 5 to 4… The justices fault Trump for not giving Cook notice and a chance to be heard before trying to remove her from position. Writing for the court Chief Justice John Roberts said that “monetary policy should not be subject to political interference.” He and Brett Kavanaugh joined the three Liberals in the majority…
@GraziellaPastor: Today, the Supreme Court ruled that President Trump can fire a Federal Reserve Board Governor for cause if they are afforded a hearing. This technically means President Trump can give Cook a hearing on her alleged mortgage fraud, and then fire her again if warranted. However, it’s possible Justice Barrett finds another excuse to keep her… “At minimum, Cook was entitled to some explanation of the evidence at issue, some avenue for a response, and a deadline by which a response would be due . . . . Only after Cook has had the opportunity to respond to the charges made against her may a final decision be made. And only then can the courts assess the validity and sufficiency of such charges.”
@bhweingarten: SCOTUS says the president can’t fire a Federal Reserve Board Governor… in the case of Lisa Cook: “The President determined that Cook, a principal executive officer, engaged in ‘deceitful and potentially criminal conduct’ that called into question her ‘integrity,’ ‘competence,’ and ‘trustworthiness.’…Cook’s job is to regulate the banking economy, but she is alleged to have made facially contradictory representations to obtain her own mortgages by committing to primarily reside in two different places at the same time…The President determined that it was ‘inconceivable’ that she was unaware of the contradiction and ‘impossible’ that she ‘intended to honor both.’ This alleged conduct would have been grounds to remove a loan officer at a bank, let alone someone vested with ‘broad powers affecting the entire banking and currency system.'” Justice Thomas suggests that the Court simply conjures rationales out of thin air when it wants to get to a certain outcome — in this case insulating a Federal Reserve Board Governor from a president seeking to remove her: “[A]s far as I am aware, no court ever before today (including the two courts below) has held that any federal statute implicitly requires notice and a hearing when it provides for a term of years limited by removal for cause.” https://x.com/bhweingarten/status/2071607521131786471 Justice Thomas tells the truth about central banking in the U.S. It really isn’t compatible with our republican system of government — it’s a progressive, German import. https://x.com/bhweingarten/status/2071603125975224450
@shipwreckedcrew: The decision on Fed. Gov. Lisa Cook is far narrower than is being made out. At its core it says only that she needs to be given the information upon which her termination is based, and an opportunity to respond. After that, that termination can go forward as she will have been provided “due process.” She is not entitled to any kind of quasi-judicial process as to her firing — just “notice” and “an opportunity to be heard” which can be in writing.
@seanmdav: Thomas is quite obviously correct. Outcomes-First jurisprudence is the calling card of John Roberts. He decides where he wants to end up, and then incoherently rationalizes backwards from there. And then he acts surprised when people say SCOTUS is a political body rather than a legal one. (Best example: Obamacare, Roberts utilizes extreme sophistry to label a punitive fee, a ‘tax’) Internally inconsistent and logically incoherent—the hallmark of the John Roberts court.
Conservatives lament that Roberts and Barrett will vote with the 3 libs to validate anchor babies today. If this occurs, Barrett would be another horrid Trump hire/appointment/nomination.
@seanmdav: Less than 24 hours until John Roberts and Amy Coney Barrett lawsplain that akshully communist Chinese spy anchor babies are just as American as George Washington. Maybe even more American.
W Bush’s legacy: Roberts as Chief Justice; blowing up the Middle East and fomenting massive immigration to the West; the Financial Crisis of 2008; creating a massive domestic spy apparatus via the Patriot Act; perverting the FBI with Mueller; and facilitating the election of Obama.
W Bush post-POTUS agenda includes: Allow Dreamers to apply for citizenship (3.6 million in US) Uphold our long-standing tradition of welcoming refugees and asylum seekers https://www.bushcenter.org/topics/immigration
@realDonaldTrump Do you think people appreciate what a fantastic job we did in building and operating the Great American State Fair at the National Mall, packed with happy people, and everybody loving it? Ask yourself this simple question, “DO YOU THINK THAT OBUMA OR SLEEPY JOE BIDEN COULD HAVE DONE IT?” THE ANSWER IS NO! Jun 29, 2026, 5:27 AM
Reports allege that GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell has been hospitalized for 16 days and is severely ill.
The Divider-in-Chief is at it again!
Obama takes new swipe at Founding Fathers ahead of America’s 250th birthday: ‘Deep flaw’ “I think sometimes we get confused in thinking that these two stories are separate. They’re intertwined, right? Which is why it’s possible for me to be a great admirer of George Washington, and also acknowledge he was a slaveholder,” said Obama in an interview Sunday with MSNOW… it simply acknowledges that there’s a profound deep flaw in these Founding Fathers who were also geniuses and gave us these tools,” Obama said… (This can be done to anyone, including civil rights icons!) https://www.foxnews.com/politics/obama-takes-new-swipe-founding-fathers-ahead-americas-250th-birthday-deep-flaw
Obama was raised by his white mother and white grandmother. He admits he was a doper (‘My choom crew’) and mediocre student in high school. The MSM still refuses to do an in-depth peak at him.
France blames US for deadly heatwave – Paris official hits back at mockery over lack of air conditioning, saying America shares responsibility for record-breaking temperatures “Dear American journalists and social media ‘influencers’: for days, some of you have been criticising and making fun of Paris because the city does not have A/C in every room…OMG, this is so rich!” wrote Audrey Pulvar, deputy mayor of Paris for international relations, on social media. “As the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions in the world, you bear a significant amount of responsibility for global warming and the consequences we, in France, are experiencing. Your cities, which are 90 per cent air conditioned, are not unrelated to this.”… https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/06/28/france-blames-us-for-deadly-heatwave/
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
RFK Jr. Says 1 Million Obamacare Enrollees Lacked Social Security Numbers
Kennedy disclosed the figure in a video posted to the social media platform X alongside Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
The officials said the administration is devoting more resources to identifying and preventing fraud within government health care programs than the previous administration.
Kennedy and Oz said the effort is aimed at protecting taxpayer dollars by strengthening oversight and improving the integrity of federal health care programs.
President Donald Trump signs an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on January 20, 2025. (Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images)
harveyorganblog.com 
