EXCHANGE
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,070.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/08/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 07/10/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 124
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 104
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 172
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 9
686 H STONEX FINANCIAL INC 160
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 1
TOTAL: 285 285
MONTH TO DATE: 9,547
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2026: 285 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 28,500 OZ or 0.8860 TONNES
total notices so far: 9547 contracts FOR 954,700 OZ OR 29.676 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 140 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.700 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5698 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 28.490 million oz
GLD AND SLV
GLD
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF XX CONTRACTS OR XXX OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER 3 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP TO LONDON FOR 0.015 MILLION OZ// AND THEN TO BOOT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 51 CONTRACTS OR 255,000 OZ MAY 21./STANDING BEFORE EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 32.070 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING THUS REDUCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ/.//(32.070 MILLION OZ NORMAL STANDING PLUS .255 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 32.325 MILLION OZ)
JUNE INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER:10.935 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 12.970 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 20 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.070 MILLION OZ. (IN EXCHANGE FOR RISK THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK AND ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD TAKE THAT RISK. THE BUYER IS PROBABLY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA.)
JULY INITIAL STANDING: 37.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 138 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OR 0.690 MILLION OZ WHERE DELIVERY WILL OCCUR ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THUS STANDING ADVANCES TO 36.480 MILLION OZ//
SUMMARY OF OUR JULY 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH:
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
MAY 59.79 MILLION OZ
JUNE. 64.065 MILLION OZ//FINAL AND FAIR SIZED THIS MONTH.
JULY: 14.835 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP OF 15,000 OZ//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 32.070 MILLION OZ//(FOLLOWING MANY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON DURING THIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH). THERE SEEMS TO BE A SCARCITY OF SILVER OVER AT THE COMEX). THEN WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 51 CONTRACTS FOR 255,000 OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND: 10.935 MILLION OZ PLUS OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 12.960 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 20 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.070 MILLION OZ
JULY : INITIAL STANDING: 37.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 0.690 MILLION OF QUEUE JUMP//STANDING THUS ADVANCES TO 36.480 MILLION OZ//
GOLD//OUTLINE
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 345 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 34,500 OZ/ (1.073 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 345 CONTRACTS OR 34500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 24.635 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES OF GOLD.
JUNE; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 64.496 TONNES.(CME CORRECTED) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.0186 TONNES/NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.8314 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 29.729 TONNES
STANDING FOR THE LAST 5 MONTHS JANUARY TO MAY:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 345 CONTRACTS/34,500 OZ// 1.073 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MAY// 5 OCCASIONS: 24.635 TONNES///NEW STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER JUMP OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES//FINAL
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.831 TONNES//NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 29.729 TONNES.
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 118.430 TONNES
JUNE: 142.053 TONNES
JULY: 35.359 TONNES
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED1462 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 103,397
EFP ISSUANCE 650 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 650 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1462 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 650 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE LOSS OF 812 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR HUGE LOSS OF $2.70
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 4.060 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE.OF $2.70
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS JULY 9 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 65.71 PTS OR 1.65%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 244.46 PTS OR 1.01%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 1036.95 PTS OR 1,55%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.37%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7942
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7979 Oil DOWN TO 72.84 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 76.95 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7942) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7979 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL 346 CONTRACTS TO 371,420 STILL WELL ABOVE ITS NEW LOW OF 326,052 OI SET JUNE 3, CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 345,705 SET (MAY 28) AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 353,490 SET MAY 27.. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 326,052 //JUNE 3 2026 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,450.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING WEDNESDAY’S MASSIVE COMEX TRADING// RAID. IT SEEMS THAT MANY OF THE SPECULATORS THAT HAVE NOW CONTINUED AGAIN TO GO MASSIVELY ON THE SHORT SIDE WITH BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE WILL BE OBLITERATED TODAY WHEN THE LONGS TENDERED FOR DELIVERY:
CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS JULY CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE SMALL SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (609 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD (DOWN $73.30)
WE THUS HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES, THE COMEX AND LONDON’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL EQUATING TO 609 CONTRACTS (OR 1.894 TONNES) DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A FAIR CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, EQUATING TO 955 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A 0 CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD. ON FRIDAY, BY FAR WE HAD THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK EVER ISSUED AT ONE TIME BEATING THE PREVIOUS SINGLE HIGHEST ISSUE BY ONE TONNE. THUS MAY 22 RECORDS THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 12.4416 TONNES. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THE THIRD ON MAY 18 , THEN MAY 21 OUR 4TH ISSUANCE AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY, OUR 5TH ISSUANCE. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH JUNE
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS OR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES.
JUNE: 0 IN GOLD. THUS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IN GOLD ZERO NOTICES WERE FILED.
JULY 0
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO JUNE:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 146+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS, 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
JUNE: ZERO
JULY 0
DETAILS ON OUR NEW JULY COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 609 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE ($73.30). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE/JULY CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A MEGA MEGA HUGE SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED THIS MONSTER 12,423 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS AND IF HISTORY SERVES US WELL, EXPECT 4 MORE OF THESE ISSUANCES ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS STARTING TODAY AND ENDING NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THUS ANOTHER MONSTER RAID WILL BE UPON US ON ONE OR TWO OF THOSE DAYS.
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND NOW MAY WITH ITS 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 12.4436 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 24.635 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12, MAY 18 MAY 21 AND NOW MAY 22..
JUNE: ZERO FOR THE MONTH
JULY: ZERO SO FAR
WE MUST ALSO REMEMBER THAT THE FRBNY IS SHORT 146+ TONNES OF GOLD, THIS COMMENCED ON JAN 2 2023 AS THEY REFUSE TO COVER DESPITE THE BIS’S PLEA TO DO SO.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING RISES TO 157.879 TONNES
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 34,500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNESS
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE SUBTRACT AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES// TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH FINALIZES AT 62.4217 TONNES OR AVERAGING 3.285 TONNES PER DAY IN JUNE.
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 749,300 OZ OR 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.831 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 29.729 TONNES
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING JULY,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $28.05)
WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE , OUR SPECULATORS STILL WENT MASSIVELY TO THE SHORT SIDE LED BY THE NOSE BY OUR HIGH FREQUENCY MOMENTUM PLAYERS WITH CENTRAL BANKERS TAKING THE LONG SIDE.
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT//THURSDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING //THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $73.30
WE HAD 491 CONTRACTS REMOVED AT THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 609 CONTRACTS OR 60,900 OZ (1.894TONNES)
JULY DELIVERY MONTH
JULY 9
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 3 ENTRIES i) Out of HSBC enhanced: 5600.975 oz 14 Good London Delivery Bars ii) Out of Int.Delaware 1607.550 oz (50 kilobars) iii) Manfra: 62.302 oz (2 kilobars) total withdrawal: 7,270.827 oz (0.2262 tonnes) |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 1 ENTRY i) Into Stonex: 16,001.017 total deposit 16,001.017 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold ENTRIES: 0 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 285 CONTRACTS OR 28,500 OZ 0.8860 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 11 Contracts 1100 OZ 0.0342 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 9547 notices 954,700 OZ 29.676 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 1
1 ENTRY
i) Into Stonex: 16,001.017
total deposit 16,001.017 oz
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
ENTRIES: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawal
3 ENTRIES
i) Out of HSBC enhanced: 5600.975 oz
14 Good London Delivery Bars
ii) Out of Int.Delaware 1607.550 oz
(50 kilobars)
iii) Manfra: 62.302 oz (2 kilobars)
adjustments: 1//dealer to customer
Brinks: 76,969.494 oz
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF JULY OI STANDS AT 306 CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 244 CONTRACTS. WE HAD A GAIN IN OZ STANDING OF 42 CONTRACTS FOR 4,275 OZ OR 0.1330 TONNES, ANOTHER QUEUE JUMP AS CENTRAL BANKS CONTINUE TO TAKE PHYSICAL GOLD OUT OF THE COMEX!!
AUGUST LOST 7808 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 261,292
SEPTEMBER LOST 4 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 1863.
.
We had 285 contracts filed for today representing 28,500 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 285 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 9 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JULY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9,547) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (306 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 285 x 100 oz per contract) equals 955,800 OZ OR (29.729 Tonnes of gold)
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JULY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9547) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY( xx) contracts minus the number of notices served upon today 285 x 100 oz per contract) equals 955,800 OZ OR (29.729 Tonnes of gold)
Yesterday’s standing: 28.898 tonnes
new total of gold standing in JULY becomes 29.729 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JULY 29.729TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW REALLY HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.
confirmed volume WEDNESDAY confirmed 216,083/ good// many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,840,407.826 oz 57.244 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,840,407.826 tonnes oz 57.244 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 27,124,352.930oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 14,760,025.161 tonnes (459.098tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 12,364,327.769 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 12,980,586 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
401.88 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
JULY DELIVERY MONTH
JULY 9
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries i) Out of Asahi 133,753.200 oz ii) Out of Delaware 9941.5000 oz total withdrawal: 12,900.600 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 entries |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | ENTRY:1 i) Into Loomis: 473,328.080 oz total deposit 473,328.080 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 140 CONTRACT(S) ( 0.700 MILLION OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1598 Contracts (7.990 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5698 contracts 28.490 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
0 entries
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
ENTRY:1
i) Into Loomis: 473,328.080 oz
total deposit 473,328.080 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
2 entries
i) Out of CNT 2959.09 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 9941.5000 oz
total withdrawal: 12,900.600 oz
adjustments :
Dealer to customer
a) Asahi: 19,519.400 oz
b) Manfra: 35,485.110 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 93.448 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 326.578 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2026 OI: 1738 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 234 CONTRACTS.
STANDING FOR SILVER TODAY IS REPRESENTED BY 36.480 MILLION OZ. WE HAD 35.790 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY YESTERDAY. THUS WE HAD A STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 138 CONTRACTS FOR 0.690 MILLION OZ.
AUGUST SAW A LOSS OF 19 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 1944…
SEPTEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 1119 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 80,144 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 140 or 0.700 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume WEDNESDAY; 56,779// fair//
XXX
AND NOW JULY. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5698 X5,000 oz = 28.490 MILLION oz.
We now take the total number of oz standing today and subtract the total standing yesterday and we have a gain of 138 contracts for 690,000 oz and this represents a queue jump where they will take delivery over on this side of the pond.
YESTERDAY: 35.790 MILLION OZ//STOOD FOR DELIVERY
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY 2026 contract month: (5698 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY ( 1738) minus number of notices served upon today (140)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JULY..contract month equating to 36.480 MILLION OZ. ( a very strong delivery month)
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 93.448 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 137.898/326.578million: 42.02%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
JULY 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $58.60 /SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.510 TONNES
JULY 8/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.30 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.79 TONNES
JULY 7/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.42 TONNES OUT INTO THE GLD/ ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.79 TONNES
JULY 6 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.954 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD/ ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.366 TONNES
JULY 3 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $62.95 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JULY 2 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $44,05 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JULY 1 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.95 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JUNE 30 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $2.85 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JUNE 29 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $58.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.223 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD // ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JUNE 26 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $49.10 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.287 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD // ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.350 TONNES
JUNE 25 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.637 TONNES
JUNE 24 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $141.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.563 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/./ //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.637 TONNES
JUNE 19 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $36.85 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.421 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/./ //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1020.49 TONNES
JUNE 18 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $135.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.856 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/./ //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.069 TONNES
JUNE 17 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $20.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.427 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/./ //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1012.213 TONNES
JUNE 16 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 15 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $111.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 12 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $123.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 11 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.855 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 10 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $153.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.426 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.495 TONNES
JUNE 9 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $75.60 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.921 TONNES
JUNE 8 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.936 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.921 TONNES
JUNE 5 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $134;85 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.857 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1002.510 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
JULY 9 WITH SILVER UP $2.64: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.497 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.531 MILLION OZ
JULY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.70: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.497 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.531 MILLION OZ
JULY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.36: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.266 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.034 MILLION OZ
JULY 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.300 MILLION OZ
JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.81: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ INTO THE SLV.// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.360 MILLION OZ
JULY 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.58: : NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.360 MILLION OZ
JULY 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.48: : SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.233 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.360 MILLION OZ
JUNE 30 WITH SILVER UP $1.35: : HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.447 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.127 MILLION OZ
JUNE 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08: : HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.402 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.574 MILLION OZ
JUNE 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.86: : HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.352 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.976 MILLION OZ
JUNE 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.69: : SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 769,000 OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.624 MILLION OZ
JUNE 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.18: : SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 93,000 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.393 MILLION OZ
JUNE 19 WITH SILVER UP $1.11: : NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.302 MILLION OZ
JUNE 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.80: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.086 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV././ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.302 MILLION OZ
JUNE 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.79: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.388 MILLION OZ
JUNE 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.362 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.388 MILLION OZ
JUNE 15 WITH SILVER UP $3.25: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.357 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.026 MILLION OZ
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $3.34: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.769 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.383 MILLION OZ
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.226 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.152 MILLION OZ
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.50: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.909 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.378 MILLION OZ
JUNE 9 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.35: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.407 MILLION OZ INTO INTO THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.287 MILLION OZ
JUNE 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 543,000 OZ FROM THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.880 MILLION OZ
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.86: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.423 MILLION OZ
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER UP $0.52: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV >> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.432 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.423 MILLION OZ
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.55: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV >> /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.423 MILLION OZ
JUNE 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.25: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV >> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.2222 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.855 MILLION OZ
JUNE 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.52: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLVA WITHDRAWAL OF 1.9 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.077 MILLION OZ
MAY 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.977 MILLION OZ
MAY 28 WITH SILVER UP $1.02: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.977 MILLION OZ
MAY 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.61: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.176 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.977 MILLION OZ
MAY 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.14: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.131 OF 0.315 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.153 MILLION OZ
MAY 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.022 MILLION OZ
MAY 21 WITH SILVER UP $0.64: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.338 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 479.034 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD.\
3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT; 279 AND 278
China Pulls Gold Revaluation Trigger
by Kinesis Money
Thursday, Jul 02, 2026 – 11:19
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire reveals how China is clearing the path to take control of global gold price setting, as the PBOC drains Western gold reserves and builds the infrastructure to challenge London and New York’s pricing grip.
With central banks racing to repatriate their gold, June imports into China set to break all records, the London whistleblower outlines why he believes a US Treasury gold revaluation is no longer a distant possibility – but an approaching reality.
MUST VIEW
China takes control of gold pricing this month, Maguire tells LFTV
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2026-07-02 14:59 Section: Daily Dispatches
3:02p ET Thursday, July 2, 2025
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
London metals trader Andrew Maguire today tells Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program that “central bank gold wars have spilled into the daylight” and events in China suggest that an upheaval in the gold market is targeted for July 24.
“The Fed’s 60-year gold short is running out of road,” with central bank repatriations of gold putting impossible pressure on the Fed, since adequate real metal isn’t available, Maguire says.
The recent pounding of derivative gold prices in London and New York by the Fed was meant to produce the “death cross” on gold charts, Maguire says, but has been construed by central banks not as a sell signal but as a buy signal.
China, Maguire says, has been taking three to five tonnes of metal out of London and New York every day and now has the infrastructure in place to take control of gold pricing away from London and New York. As a result, he adds, the Chinese yuan, heavily anchored by gold, will challenge the dollar as a reserve currency.
Maguire and Hemke say gold ‘correction’ is over and expect revaluation
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2026-06-22 11:56 Section: Daily Dispatches
11:56a ET Monday, June 22, 2025
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
London metals trader Andrew Maguire and the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke, in conversation on this week’s edition of Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program, agree that gold’s “correction” is over and speculate how a U.S. Treasury revaluation of the monetary metal to a much higher price may come about soon.
The program is 57 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
5. COMMODITY REPORT/cocoa
/Cocoa Prices Rally As Jefferies Warns Of “Perfect Storm” In West Africa
Thursday, Jul 09, 2026 – 05:45 AM
Cocoa futures in New York have doubled since the start of March and have now climbed back toward levels not seen since late 2025, around $6,000 a ton, as Jefferies analysts warn that a “perfect storm’s a-brewing” across West Africa, the world’s top cocoa-farming region.
Jefferies analyst Scott Marks wrote in a note on Tuesday that new weather concerns center on Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world’s top cocoa-growing regions.
He said that temperatures in both countries have been about 2F below five-year averages since March, while rainfall in June ran about 46% above average in Ivory Coast and 52% above average in Ghana. Excess rain increases the risk of black pod and brown rot.
Early surveys of Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 crop point to below-average cherelle formation and poor pod development.
Industry estimates now show around 1.7 to 1.8 million metric tons, down about 18% from roughly 2.2 million tons in 2025/26, the analyst noted.
Global cocoa market snapshot still dire:
A 2024/2025 estimated global cocoa surplus of ~48 thousand tons is now expected according to ICCO reports published May’26, below prior estimates of ~75 thousand tons
With the global cocoa stock-to-grinding ratio still below the historical avg, but an improvement from the 2023/24 season
Beyond the current adverse weather conditions in Ivory Coast and Ghana, traders are also monitoring the risk of an El Niño later this year, which could produce hot, dry winds that sweep across West Africa and further damage cocoa output.
END
PAPER GOLD:
Gold Selloff Seen As “Stop-Loss Liquidation Positioning Reset”, Not Fundamentally Driven
Thursday, Jul 09, 2026 – 01:20 PM
Gold’s break below key technical support of 4050 to the 4023 low in New York trading on Wednesday appears driven primarily by stop-loss liquidation and positioning rather than a material deterioration in macro fundamentals, according to UBS.
As the bank’s trader Marcus Millis writes, “the move flushed out long exposure and left positioning looking more balanced, reducing the immediate risk of further forced selling.”
However, he cautions, the broader trading backdrop remains challenging. That’s because with front-end USD rates expected to stay under pressure, upside in gold looks limited, and rallies are still viewed as opportunities to reduce exposure rather than chase higher prices.
Near-term support should emerge around recent lows at 4040-50 with resistance at 4110/20, but conviction for a sustained rebound remains low.
That said, the long term fundamentals remain especially solid, and patient holders who would rather collect income from gold as a “productive” metal until its next breakout, rather than a passive, not-yielding asset, can check out the offerings from our partner Monetary Metals.
Case in point: as we reported a few weeks ago when analyzing the World Gold Council’s 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, the punchline was that a record 45% of respondents expect their own gold reserves will increase over the next 12 months
Central banks have accumulated an average of 1,000t of gold over the past four years, up significantly from the 500t average over the preceding decade. This marked acceleration in the pace of accumulation has occurred against a backdrop of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, which has clouded the outlook for reserve managers.
The WGC’s 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves (CBGR) survey was conducted between 5 February and 19 May. With the majority of responses coming in after the start of the Middle East conflict, this year’s survey contains insights on how central bankers view gold in the light of ongoing geopolitical turmoil. The sample is highly representative of the overall central bank community, both geographically and in terms of gold owned. This robust participation is a powerful signal of engagement with gold amongst the central banking community.
Here are some more of the notable highlights:
- Similar to findings from previous surveys, central banks continue to hold favorable expectations on gold. Respondents overwhelmingly (89%) believe that global central bank gold reserves will increase over the next 12 months.
- This year, a record 45% of respondents expect their own gold reserves will also increase over the same period. The majority of the remaining respondents indicated they expect no change while 1% expect their institution’s gold reserves to decrease (hello, Turkey).
- Gold’s performance during times of crisis, portfolio diversification and inflation hedging are some of the key factors for central banks to hold gold. In addition, gold as a geopolitical risk hedge and gold as part of a reserve diversification policy also feature as key reasons for increasing allocations to gold.
- The majority of respondents (74%) see moderate or significantly lower US dollar holdings within global reserves over the next five years. Respondents also believe that the share of other currencies, such as the euro and renminbi will remain unchanged over the same period, while gold holdings will increase.
- This year’s survey asked respondents how they would fund their new gold purchases. Half of respondents indicated through a domestic purchase program in local currency, while 38% indicated through selling existing reserve assets.
- The Bank of England remains the most popular vaulting location among respondents at 57%, though central banks continue to diversify their storage across multiple locations. Domestic storage came in second at 49%, followed by the Bank for International Settlements at 16% (a slight uptick from last year). The Swiss National Bank saw a notable decline in preference, dropping to 6% from 12% in 2025.
- A notable increase in changes to vaulting locations was observed in this year’s survey, with 9% saying they have increased domestic storage and 10% saying they have diversified overseas storage locations in the past 12 months, compared with 5% and 2% respectively in last year’s survey. The trend is also observed in future plans for vaulting, with 7% saying they plan to increase domestic storage and 9% saying they plan to diversify overseas storage locations in the coming 12 months.
To summarize, this year’s survey reinforces the trend: central banks remain very positive on gold, highlighting its significance amid a volatile geopolitical and economic environment.
- When asked about expectations for how global central bank gold reserves will change over the next 12 months, respondents were almost unanimous, with 89% of respondents believing that official gold reserves will continue to increase (Chart 3). This sentiment was consistent across both advanced economy and EMDE respondents. It should be noted that 11% of central banks believe that gold’s proportion of total reserves would remain unchanged, up from 5% last year. In addition, 45% of respondents thought that their own institution’s gold reserves would rise over the next year, broadly in line with last year’s finding (43%).
- Most respondents did not expect their gold reserves to change in the next 12 months. This marks a new record high in the proportion of central banks expecting to add gold to their own reserves with EMDE banks continuing to lead their advanced economy counterparts. Among EMDE respondents around half thought that their own gold reserves would increase in the next 12 months, while the other half anticipated they would remain unchanged.
- The findings highlight that gold sentiment within the central banking community remains upbeat. Expectations point to continued gold buying over the next 12 months, reflecting sustained confidence in gold’s strategic role amid evolving geopolitical and macroeconomic dynamics.
In other words, the demand fundamentals – especially among the “price-indiscriminate buyers” have never been better, and while technicals and positioning remain challenging, especially when factoring for the continued selling in gold ETFs…
… gold tends to reward patient holders in the long run (as all those who purchased it for much of the 2010s and early 2020s experienced, when the yellow metal barely moved, then rapidly 3x-ed in just one year). And while waiting, there is now an option to collect as much as 4% yield on physical, paid out as additional ounces of physical gold.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 65.71 PTS OR 1.65%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 244.46 PTS OR 1.01%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 1036.95 PTS OR 1,55%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.37%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7942
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7979 Oil DOWN TO 72.84 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 76.95 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7942) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7979 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 6.7942
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.7979
1.HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 244.46 PTS OR 1.01%
2. Nikkei closed UP 1036.95 PTS OR 1.55%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL DOWN TO 72.84
BRENT; 76,95
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 100.66/// EURO RISES TO 1.1437 UP 17 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.874 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 162.33… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.022 UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP( 6.7942) AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.7979
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and BRENT DOWN this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields LOWER on all fronts in the EU German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +3.0599/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.864/ SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.544%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.748%
3j Gold at $4109.20 //Silver at: 59.27 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 69/ 100 roubles/76.11
3m oil (WTI) into the 72 dollar handle for WTI and 76 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 162.33 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.874% DOWN 1 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 4.024 UP 1 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.8063 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9222
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.563 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.070 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.189 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 46.88 UP 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.9237 DOWN 5 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.645 UP 2 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.569 UP 8 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.183 UP 8 BASIS PTS.
Futures Rise, Oil Drops As Markets Ignore Latest Middle East Airstrikes
Thursday, Jul 09, 2026 – 08:26 AM
Futures are higher (although off session highs), and oil erased overnight gains as the market moved past the latest Middle-East flare up which saw the US military strike 90 Iranian targets for a second day and Tehran retaliated against American allies in the Persian Gulf. And like during previous escalations, this time nobody believes it will last. As of 8:00am ET S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 contracts gained 0.6% as semiconductor stocks advanced in Asia, Europe and US premarket trading after SK Hynix drew strong demand for its offering of ADRs. Mag7 stocks are mixed, with META tumbling on a Reuters report the company has signed long-term contracts for memory, networking gear and flash storage, refuting the market’s expectation that the company is starting to ease back on capex spending. The FTSE 100 lags and is down 0.8% as AstraZeneca shares slump 9% after its Wainua drug failed to prevent heart problems. . Cyclicals, ex-Energy, are rebounding led by Fins and Industrials. Momentum is poised for another strong day, this time with Beta. Brent traded near $79 a barrel after swinging between gains and losses. Bond yields are down 2bps to up 1bps as the curve twists steeper ahead of today’s 30Y auction; the 10Y yield trades at 4.59%, near a one-month high. Commodities are weaker with Ags and Energy selling off but there is a bid to metals led by Precious. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is also little changed. The kiwi is the strongest of the G-10 currencies, rising 0.6% against the greenback after some hawkish remarks from RBNZ Governor Breman. Precious metals advance along with Bitcoin. Today’s macro data focus is on jobless data and existing home sales with the macro focus shifting to next week’s CPI / PPI, Retail Sales prints as earnings season kicks off.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Meta Platforms -0.1%, Microsoft -1%, Tesla +0.2%, Nvidia +0.2%, Amazon -0.6%, Apple -0.2%, Alphabet -0.3%)
- Ceco Environmental (CECO) rises 3% after JPMorgan initiated coverage of the air-purification equipment provider with a recommendation of overweight, citing its acquisition of Thermon.
- IBM (IBM) slips 3% as Starbucks is developing in-house tools with the help of artificial intelligence that could replace some software applications it now buys from the company.
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) slumps 19%, while AstraZeneca falls in London, after a late-stage trial of the companies’ gene silencer drug Wainua showed a failure to help prevent heart problems in patients with a rare and potentially fatal disease of the organ.
- Developers of rival cardiomyopathy drugs gain: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) +17%, Bridgebio (BBIO) +13%.
- Levi Strauss (LEVI) falls 4% after after the apparel company’s increase to its forecast underwhelmed investors.
- Mattel (MAT) slips 2% after Goldman Sachs analyst Stephen Laszczyk cut his recommendation on the toy maker to sell from neutral, and cut his price target to a Street-low $12 from $15.
- Salesforce (CRM) falls 4% after KeyBanc downgraded the software company to sector weight, noting a lack of momentum in the the company’s Agentforce AI product.
- Simply Good Foods (SMPL) rises 13% after the packaged-food company reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
In other news, PepsiCo narrowly missed estimated for second-quarter organic sales growth as the earnings season for the June quarter got underway. Bain Capital has sold its entire stake in flash memory chipmaker Kioxia. AstraZeneca and Ionis Pharmaceuticals’s gene silencer drug Wainua failed to help prevent heart problems in patients with a rare and potentially fatal disease of the organ, sending Ionis shares plunging in premarket trading. Porsche deliveries slumped 16% in the first half, dragged down by weak demand in North America and a decline in China.
The calmer mood in markets comes despite an escalation of violence in the Middle East that is threatening efforts to reach a permanent US-Iran peace deal. The US military hit about 90 Iranian targets Wednesday to degrade Tehran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Traders say that while the tensions reflect the fragile nature of the truce between the sides, neither government would want a full-scale return to war and that the parties would likely return to negotiations.
“This is the new status quo; it’s an uneasy equilibrium, but an equilibrium nonetheless,” said Geoff Yu, a senior macro strategist at BNY. “You just need to factor in the volatility in your asset allocation.”
Global bonds were modestly higher as two days of an oil-driven selloff came to an end. The yield on two-year Treasuries eased two basis points to 4.20%. The dollar was little changed.
After Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting showed that some committee members saw a case for a rate increase, traders will now wait for next week’s inflation data and Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony to lawmakers for another steer on the path for interest rates. New York Fed President John Williams will take part in a moderated discussion later on Thursday.
“The only reason the July meeting wasn’t live was because oil prices were basically where they started the war,” Bob Elliott, chief investment officer at Unlimited Funds, told Bloomberg TV. “That’s changed. The conflict in Iran and the Hormuz problem has not really been resolved.”
In tech, SK Hynix’s US listing is said to be more than seven times oversubscribed, as the South Korean memory chipmaker prepares to price its offering later today. With its ADRs set to trade for the first time on Friday, arbitrage investors are without a historical benchmark for what constitutes a normal premium, making it far harder to judge when a spread is attractive or stretched. On the subject of memory, the knock-on effects of ongoing component price inflation could dampen hardware growth expectations, with Citi forecasting 2026 PC units to fall 15% in 2026, and smartphones to decline 12%.
As Bloomberg notes, an interesting divergence is emerging under the surface of volatility. While the VIX Index continues to exhibit placid price moves, single stock volatility, expressed through the S&P 500 Dispersion Index, closed at a one-year high on Wednesday.
When it comes to AI, massive spending commitments are set to sustain the investment theme around the technology for two to three years, according to BlackRock Inc.’s Helen Jewell, even as tech giants gradually turn cash-flow negative and start raising debt to fund their buildouts.
“From an investment perspective, you lean into the AI theme, you do the secondary beneficiaries of that, but you need to diversify those portfolios,” Jewell told Bloomberg TV. “Healthcare, Latam, even the UK.”
Consumer stocks are in focus with Costco reporting a deceleration in June comps relative to May, while Levi Strauss is lower in premarket trading after a decent beat and raise report fell short of some expectations for a more punchy forecast. It follows BofA noting that clients had put the most money into consumer discretionary stocks ever last week.
In politics, Graham Platner suspended his Senate campaign in Maine following a sexual assault allegation that caused his support from fellow Democrats to collapse. And Democratic infighting is threatening to undermine the party’s midterm targets.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% after its worst day since March. Miners and banks are the best performers while healthcare lags its sector peers.The FTSE 100 lags and is down 0.8% as AstraZeneca shares slump after its Wainua drug failed to prevent heart problems. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:
- Glencore rises as much as 3.9% after Goldman Sachs raised the diversified miner to buy from neutral, citing commodity leverage, earnings upside and valuation support.
- Nordex shares gain as much as 5.2% after the German wind turbine maker said it recorded 3,054MW of orders in the second quarter, above expectations.
- Computacenter shares rise as much as 14% to a record high after the UK IT reseller tipped full-year results to be “comfortably ahead” of market expectations, showing it continues to benefit from US hyperscalers’ data center buildout.
- Admiral Group rallies as much as 2.2% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the car insurance provider to neutral from sell and set a Street-high price target, citing an upturn in UK motor market pricing.
- Schott Pharma shares jump by a record 22% after the company improved its guidance for the full year, prompting an upgrade at RBC Capital Markets. The stock is trading at its highest level since October.
- Wolters Kluwer shares rise as much as 7.3% as JP Morgan upgrades its rating on the IT firm to overweight from neutral and lifts its price target, citing a “compelling” valuation and the potential for interest from private equity.
- Sampo gains as much as 2.3% after the insurer was upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs, which sees Nordic markets and an upturn in UK motor pricing driving operating earnings growth through 2029.
- Erste shares rise as much as 3.4% after Goldman Sachs resumed analyst coverage with a buy rating and a €150 price target.
- Deutz shares rise as much as 10% after the German engine manufacturer said it agreed to buy closely held military-vehicle maker FFG Flensburger Fahrzeugbau Gesellschaft.
- Pepco gains as much as 5.2% after the discount retailer reported acceleration of like-for-like sales during the 3Q period ended in June.
- Playtech shares rally as much as 20% after the maker of gaming software said its performance in the first half was materially ahead of expectations and lifted its full year guidance.
- Suedzucker shares rise as much as 4% after the German food company raised its revenue outlook for the year.
- AstraZeneca shares slump as much as 9.9% after a late-stage trial showed the gene silencer drug Wainua failed to help prevent heart problems in patients with a rare and potentially fatal disease of the organ.
- Capita shares plunge as much as 20% after the outsourcing company warned issues with a contract will hit 2026 profit, leading analysts at RBC Capital Markets to cut their forecasts and price target.
Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as concern over renewed Middle East tensions was countered by optimism toward the artificial intelligence trade. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was 0.1% higher after earlier climbing as much as 1% and falling 0.5%. Most technology shares gained, with SK Hynix and Kioxia Holdings among the major contributors to the gauge’s advance. Mainland China’s CSI 300 Index jumped more than 2% as chip stocks advanced. Shares in Japan and South Korea also rose, while those in Hong Kong and Taiwan fell. Oil fluctuated as traders assessed the outlook for Middle Eastern crude supplies after fresh hostilities between the US and Iran, raising concerns for global energy supplies and posing a fresh challenge Asian economies that are mainly oil importers. Investors are reassessing the sustainability of AI-driven rally, as investors looked to earnings season for the next catalyst.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is also little changed. The kiwi is the strongest of the G-10 currencies, rising 0.6% against the greenback after some hawkish remarks from RBNZ Governor Breman.
In rates, treasuries are mixed with the curve steeper, pivoting around little-changed 10-year sector, as front-end tenors unwind some of their oil-driven losses of the past two sessions. Long-end tenors lag with WTI crude futures extending recent gains after IRNA report that the perimeter of Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant was hit by US projectiles. US front-end yields are about 2bp richer on the day, long-end yields 1.5bp cheaper, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 2bp and 2.5bp respectively. 10-year, little changed around 4.58%, trails bunds and gilts in the sector by around 3bp. European government bonds rise with UK and German 10-year yields falling 2-3 bps each. US 10-year borrowing costs are flat.This week’s Treasury auctions conclude with $22 billion 30-year reopening at 1pm, following strong demand for Wednesday’s 10-year note sale; WI 30-year yield near 5.09% is 7bp cheaper than last month’s auction, which tailed by 1.2bp. Focal points of Thursday’s US session include weekly jobless claims data and 30-year bond reopening, on the heels of good demand for Wednesday’s 10-year note sale. .
In commodities, brent crude futures are little changed near $78 a barrel having erased earlier gains seen after the US military struck Iran for a second straight day. Precious metals advance along with Bitcoin.
US economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and June existing home sales (10am). Fed calendar includes Williams (9am) and Logan (1:30pm).
Market snapshot
Top Overnight News
- US, Iran Trade Airstrikes as Fears Grow of a Return to War: BBG
- The Iran War threatened a food crisis. The next Gulf conflict could do the same: RTRS
- The Red Flag That Led to Graham Platner’s Implosion Was Hiding in Plain Sight: WSJ
- Meta to put AI chip into production in September as it looks to double computing capacity, memo shows: RTRS
- An Impending IPO Boom Has Sparked FOMO Among San Francisco Home Buyers: WSJ
- China consumer price growth weakens in June while producer inflation rises to near 4-year high, squeezing manufacturers: RTRS
- U.S. Targets One of Cuba’s Last Lifelines: Its Army of Overseas Doctors: WSJ
- Ukraine’s Six-Part Strategy to Survive the Global Run on Patriot Missiles. Kyiv is trying to mitigate the shortage of missile interceptors that has left its cities exposed to Russia’s ballistic missiles: WSJ
- The US Senate committee will reportedly vote next week on a bill to toughen the US government ban on Chinese automakers from entering the US market.
- Counterfeit Air-Bag Parts Are Killing U.S. Drivers—and the Government Can’t Stop It: WSJ
- Trump said he is a bigger fan of SAVE America than the housing bill; Trump said he will be asking for a rehearing by the Supreme Court on birthright citizenship: Truth Social
Iran War
- US CENTCOM announced the completion of its most recent round of strikes against Iran, in which forces struck around 90 Iranian military targets. There were reports of fresh explosions in Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Hormozgan. There have also been reports of explosions in Abu Musa Island and Bushehr. Nour news reported that the attack on Bushehr did not cause any damage to the nuclear power plant.
- The IRGC later announced that two US bases in Kuwait and two base in Bahrain were attacked and threatened that response will be extended to other US bases in the region if the US repeats its attacks.
- Trump said Iran was just hit very hard and we have many ways to win. He added that he do not know if Iran will honor a deal but Iran wants to make a deal badly.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks initially proved resilient to the recent US-Iran strikes, with the majority of indices opening with decent gains. However, as the session progressed, market reversed, with the Nikkei 225 the only index printed gains. The reversal came without a clear driver, which highlights the extreme volatility in equity markets. ASX 200 began trade with losses and continued to trade in the red, however stabilised above 8,700. Energy was the sector outperformer, while Metals & Mining lagged for a fourth straight session.
Nikkei 225 was the only index printing gains, helped by gains in Kioxia, after Bain Capital announced the sale of its entire stake, and Tokyo Election, as it highlighted the ability to cut chip gear delivery times by 50%. KOSPI initially surged at the open, following on from the tech-led gains stateside, with Samsung and SK Hynix printing gains of over 5% at one point. However, the index reversed, driven by the losses in the two tech giants, highlighting the extreme volatility in the South Korean benchmark. The KOSPI volatility index currently stands at 87.41, compared to Nasdaq’s 27.86. Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng opened with modest gains but gave back slightly. It was another day of IPOs for the Hang Seng, with the introduction of Luxshare Precision Industry, which didn’t start as hoped.
Top Asian News
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kiara said they are watching markets with a high sense of urgency.
- China announces issuance of guidelines to promote the retail sector.
- South Korean official said Won weakness is temporary.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) opened with gains as markets generally look through the geopolitical escalation. FTSE 100 is the laggard as energy majors pull back and AstraZeneca slumps, IBEX 35 is the clear outperformer after US-Spain trade-related underperformance on Wednesday. To briefly recap events overnight, tit-for-tat strikes were conducted by the US on around 90 Iranian targets, and the IRGC fired on military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. Markets remain optimistic, focusing on remarks from US President Trump, who said he spoke with Iran, and that they want to make a deal. European sectors opened with a positive, risk-on bias and continue this way in quiet EU trade. Tech and Basic Resources outperform, while Energy and Utilities are the laggards. Stock specifics include: AstraZeneca (-9%) CARDIO-TTRansform Phase III trial did not meet the primary endpoint of efficacy around CV mortality; Deutz (5.5%), To acquire FFG Flensburger Fahrzeugbau Gesellschaft for EUR 1.6bln.
Top European News
- Andy Burnham has pledged to rebuild the country’s hard power by ensuring that billions of pounds of additional defence spending is focused on the UK rather than given to American or European companies, according to the Times’ Swinford.
FX
- In short, the USD is a touch softer at the expense of G10s across the board ex-CAD which has been hit by the energy pullback. Kiwi continues to lead post-RBNZ.
- NZD continues to climb, as high as 0.5739 against the USD, approaching the 22nd of June peak at 0.5741 and numerous levels thereafter. The narrative for the Kiwi is a continuation of the move seen following the RBNZ, and as the last session or two’s worth of energy action adds to, and arguably brings forward, the tentative hawkish guidance from the Bank. As a reminder, the statement said “While further OCR increases appear likely at upcoming meetings, their timing is highly uncertain.”
- CAD lags. USD/CAD at a 1.4188 peak and threatening to move higher despite energy lifting off lows, but with WTI and Brent still lower by around USD 0.40/bbl on the day. Numerous levels are in focus on either side, with the direction likely to remain firmly and almost exclusively at the whim of energy, barring a trade or similar development.
- EUR and GBP both benefit from the USD downside. EUR/USD as high as 1.1449 and Cable to 1.3431. However, the last 30 minutes or so have seen a bit of a bounce in energy, still in the red but only by around USD 0.40/bbl vs downside of c. USD 1.10/bbl at most. Action that has allowed the USD to fight back a touch, and weighed on peers with GBP/USD down to a 1.3413 low and EUR/USD back towards the overnight 1.1416 base. Given this, the DXY remains in the red and below 101.00, but only just and is eyeing a return into the green.
- For the EUR, we look to the ECB Minutes for June. However, the significant amount of developments on the geopolitical front since then mean the account is even more stale than typical. UK participants await the formal start of the Labour leadership process, though it is not expected to be a contest with just Burnham to enter.
- USD/JPY under modest pressure, broadly in-fitting with the action seen in other G10s as the USD dictates. At the mid-point of narrow 162.24-62 parameters. Specifics include Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara saying they are watching markets with a high sense of urgency.
Fixed Income
- A firmer start to the day for fixed income, after a relatively rangebound APAC session on account of the lack of energy follow-through to the tit-for-tat strikes by the US and Iran overnight, with the narrative potentially being that the strikes are no more of an escalation than what we saw on Tuesday night.
- Overnight, USTs held around 108-30 and were near-enough flat, Bunds similar between 125.20-30, firmer by around 10 ticks. Thereafter, in the early European morning, US President Trump said Iran “called a while ago” and they “want to make a deal”, in-fitting with his overnight language; however, the indication that contacts, likely via mediators but unconfirmed, have occurred allowed energy to pull back and lifted fixed. This was enough to bring USTs to a 109-03+ peak. However, in recent trade, as the energy complex comes off worst levels US paper has flicked slightly into the red.
- Bunds as high as 125.40, firmer by 26 ticks at best but well shy of the week’s opening level just below 127.00. Specifics for the bloc light, aside from ECB Minutes for the June meeting, which are likely more stale than usual given the MoU and more recent flare up.
- Gilts opened with gains of 28 ticks, reacting to the early-morning pickup in peers. Since, it has extended to an 87.62 peak with gains of just over 50 ticks; albeit, as is the case with peers, the benchmark remains well shy of Monday’s 88.93 opening level. For the UK, BoE’s Breeden is on the docket and may well provide further insight on Gilt-related reform. Additionally, the Labour leadership nomination process formally opens, if as expected only Burnham contends then he will be PM around the 20th of July.
- Japan sold JPY 2.5tln 5-year JGBs; b/c 3.43x (prev. 3.11x), average yield 2.020% (prev. 1.905%). Lowest accepted price 99.88 (prev. 100.35). Weighted average price 99.91 (prev. 100.41). Tail in price 0.03 (prev. 0.06).
- China Interbank bond market regulator is to reportedly curb short-term bond issuance by local government financing vehicles.
- Australia sold AUD 150mln 0.25% November 2032 I/L AGBs: b/c 3.23x (prev. 4.42x), average yield 2.1808% (prev. 2.2373%).
Commodities
- Focus remains on the turbulent geopolitical situation. Overnight, the US struck various regions in Iran, aiming to degrade the IRGC’s ability to attack commercial ships. Iran responded with its own attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.
- Following the strikes, US President Trump said that Iran called a short while ago, and that they want to make a deal. Details are light at this stage, and it remains to be seen whether a call actually took place, and whether Trump was truthful of Iran seeking a deal. For now, market sentiment is positive, with traders focusing in on: a) Trump’s deal comments, b) no large-scale war so far, c) the Strait remaining open. On the latter point, whilst ships continue to traverse the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported that that some war insurers advised shipowners to pause Hormuz voyages after the latest attacks.
- Crude benchmarks extended lower this morning, after trading with mild strength overnight. However, the complex now trades flat on the session, as markets digest the overnight strikes.
- Spot gold (+0.9%) trades slightly firmer this morning, thanks to the softer USD and lower energy prices. Currently holding above the USD 4.1k/oz mark, and trades within a USD 4,054-4,118/oz range. Elsewhere, base metals are entirely in the green, following the positive risk tone. 3M LME copper trades at the upper end of a USD 13,241-13,447/t range. Elsewhere, for Lithium markets, reports have suggested that Chile’s lithium exports have almost tripled Y/Y.
- Stavropol governor said a fire at the industrial site in Stavropol has intensified, reaching fuel tanks, Interfax reported.
- UK announces issuance of electricity supply warning as heat wave strains grid.
Trade/Tariffs
- US President Trump said a lot of good trade deals were made with Turkey; Spain was very generous today as they honoured a request for lots of payment.
- A US official said that the US Treasury will work with USTR and the Commerce Department to present President Trump with a menu of Spanish products that may be subject to a trade embargo in the coming days.
Central Banks
- BoJ Osaka branch manager said many companies in the region expect solid earnings and share the need for further wage increases to secure workers amid labour shortages; expect significant price rises ahead.
- BoJ maintains its assessment for all 9 of Japan’s regions. Many regions said the risk of sharp drop in exports and output has declined somewhat. Many regions said firms were maintaining robust capex plans, increasing chip equipment and chip orders due to expanding global AI demand. Many regions said firms, including smaller ones, offered high wage increases this year, though some said it could be difficult to keep a hiking pay.
- RBNZ Governor Breman reiterates that the neutral OCR range is centred around 3%, need to read the economy to assess where the neutral rate is.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8036 vs exp. 6.7978 (prev. 6.8077).
- BoK Governor Shin said they are in talks with other central banks all the time to discuss markets, sees a strong chance of a stronger KRW.
- Taiwan Central Bank Governor said concerns remain about the possibility of an AI bubble.
- BoK Governor Shin said interest rates need to be raised at an appropriate time.
- BoK said KRW weakness is sharper than other major currencies, will continue making market stabilising efforts, inflation seen exceeding target with demand-side pressure growing gradually.
Geopolitics: Overnight strikes:
- At the direction of the Commander in Chief, US Central Command forces have started conducting additional strikes against Iran to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is holding Iran accountable for recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews freely navigating a vital international waterway.
- US military base in Kuwait was hit in an Iranian retaliatory attack, while explosions heard at the US Fifth fleet HQ in Bahrain.
- Iranian missiles targeted the Azraq base in eastern Jordan, Fars reported.
- Iranian opposition sources report that maritime industries, shipyards, and the Revolutionary Guards’ naval base in Bandar Abbas were attacked, report Kan News.
Geopolitics: US Commentary:
- US President Trump said Iran called a while ago, they want to make a deal.
- US President Trump’s frustration with Iran was due in part to his anger over the Strait not being fully open yet and that Iran hit ships transiting the Strait, CNN reported citing a US official. The official added that Trump is losing patience with the pace of negotiations, specifically Iran’s appearing to slow walk Washington on the nuclear talks.
- US President Trump posted “This is in retribution for yesterday’s bombing of ships by Iran. If it happens again, it will get much worse!”.
- US President Trump said Iran was just hit very hard, we have many ways to win; do not know if Iran will honour a deal but Iran wants to make a deal badly. Europe wants to help on Iran.
- A US official said the ceasefire with Iran has been halted, at least temporarily, CNN reported.
- “Everything depends on Iran’s response – if they continue to shoot, the night’s events could become a daily, weekly event. We are prepared,” i24News reported citing a US source.
- The length and severity of the new campaign depends entirely on Tehran’s next moves, Axios reported citing a US official; The White House is preparing for a multi-day or multi-week exchange of fire with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.
- Israel has no connection to the US strikes on Iran, Al Arabiya reported citing an Israeli military source. Any attempt to target Israel will be met with a swift, decisive and strong response.
Geopolitics: Iran Commentary:
- Iran’s Bushehr Governor said that US attacks on a nuclear plant in the region are not true.
- Iran’s advisor to the Supreme Leader Rezaei said “martyr Khamenei taught us not to fear American and showed that falsehood will perish. Await the hard slap from the Iranians”.
- Iran’s IRGC said they will respond to the targeting of a bridge in Aqqala, Al Arabiya reported.
- Iran’s IRGC said two US bases in Kuwait and two base in Bahrain were attacked, response will be extended to other US bases in the region if the US repeats its attacks.
- Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said America has not yet learned that bullying and breach of promise are no longer free, adds the Strait of Hormuz will only open with Iranian arrangements, not American threats.
- The US attack on Bushehr did not cause any damage to the nuclear power plant, Nour news reported citing a source.
Geopolitics: Lebanon:
- “The US ambassador in Beirut: Negotiations between Lebanon and Israel have moved to Rome for technical reasons”, via Al Arabiya. Preparations are underway regarding the start of work in the pilot areas.
- Israeli Defence Minister Katz said they will remain within the Lebanon security zone and will operate within it until Hezbollah is disarmed.
Geopolitics: Ukraine:
- Ukraine’s Military said it struck 12 Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said the military has struck Russian oil depots in the Tver and Stavropol Regions; also strikes on a Russian oil pumping Station in Ufa and oil terminal in the Rostov region.
- reported of explosions in Dnipro, Ukraine.
- A Russian official said two tankers were attacked by drones in the Sea of Azov.
- A Russian governor said a fire has occurred in one tank of the Tverskaya oil deposit enterprise as a result of a UAV attack and all districts of the Kershon region are partially or completely depowered, Interfax reported.
- Russian governor said a UAV raid caused a fire at an industrial facility in Stavropol, Interfax reported.
Geopolitics: Others
- EU reportedly puts trade ban with Israeli settlements on the table, Euronews reported.
- US President Trump said have not decided on pulling troops out of Greenland.
- Wednesday’s strikes were broader in scope than the strikes the day before, targeting IRGC coastal radars, anti-ship missile sites and air defence systems, Axios’ Ravid reported citing a senior US official.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Jul 4 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 217k, prior 215k
- 8:30 am: Jun 27 Continuing Claims, est. 1814k, prior 1814k
- 10:00 am: Jun Existing Home Sales, est. 4.2m, prior 4.17m
- 9:00 am: United States Fed’s Williams in Moderated Discussion
- 1:30 pm: United States Fed’s Logan Moderates Panel on Market Liquidity
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The US has now conducted a second consecutive day of strikes on Iran, reportedly targeting around 90 sites including air defence systems, missile and drone facilities, and coastal surveillance infrastructure. This marks a clear escalation, with Washington signalling it is prepared to sustain operations to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has reportedly struck US-linked bases in the Gulf and warned of further retaliation, raising the risk of a broader regional conflict. President Trump said that he would not stop negotiations but that “I just don’t know if they’re worthy of making a deal. I don’t know that they’re going to honor the deal.”
Asian equity markets are mixed overnight, with the renewed US military action against Iran and higher oil prices (+1.03% at around $78/bbl but under yesterday’s peak above $80) weighing on risk appetite. Japan’s Nikkei (+1.55%) is the standout performer, supported by chip-related buying. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (-0.16%) is rebounding from an earlier drop of close to 2 percent even if it had moved positive when I started writing this paragraph! Chinese markets are mostly lower, with the Hang Seng (-0.78%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.89%) declining after soft inflation data. The S&P/ASX 200 is also down (-0.45%). S&P 500 (+0.17%) and Nasdaq (+0.18%) futures are up alongside Stoxx futures (+1.03%) which is being helped by a late US recovery last night after the European close.
Japan’s five-year government bond auction saw solid demand, supported by elevated yields. The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 3.43, above the previous auction’s 3.11 and the 12-month average of 3.35.
The US-Iran conflict and associated oil concerns had built up through the day yesterday, amidst growing fears that last month’s interim deal was coming apart. Oil prices immediately jumped in the London morning by around $2/bbl after President Trump said on the ceasefire that “For me, I think it’s over”. Then later on, Trump said that the US would “probably hit them hard again tonight”, and that “We may put it back, the blockade, and it’ll only be a blockade for Iran”. Meanwhile on the Iranian side, an aide to the Supreme Leader said in a post that “We have proven time and again that adventures will receive an immediate response”. So collectively it felt like the most serious escalation since the deal was agreed last month.
All that led to a clear reaction for oil prices, with Brent crude (+5.20%) posting its biggest daily gain since May 4th, peaking at $80.59/bbl but closing a couple of dollars lower. For reference, that’s still a long way beneath its recent peak in absolute terms, having approached $120/bbl during the initial phase of the conflict. But it’s a clear shift away from the downward trajectory for oil back in Q2, and the various headlines revived fears about a more persistent inflationary shock. Indeed, the 1yr Euro inflation swap surged +26.8bps yesterday to 2.14%.
With stagflation concerns back on the agenda, that led investors to price back in more rate hikes. For instance, the probability of a Fed hike as soon as this month was up +3.2bps to 30.5% by the close, and the amount of hikes priced by December was up +4.8bps on the day to 42.2bps. Meanwhile at the ECB, there was an even bigger hawkish repricing, with the amount of hikes by December up +12.7bps on the day to 39.5bps. And given the ECB already hiked in June, that pricing implies a growing chance that they might end up hiking 3 times by the end of the year.
Just like when the conflict began, yesterday’s re-escalation caused significant damage to sovereign bonds, particularly in Europe given the region’s exposure to the energy shock. So 10yr bund yields (+9.9bps) surged back up to 3.09%, marking its biggest daily jump since May. And over in France, there was an even bigger milestone, as the 10yr OAT yield (+13.5bps) closed at 3.93%, marking its highest level since 2009. Then in the US, the moves weren’t quite as aggressive, but the 10yr Treasury yield (+2.8bps) still rose to 4.58%, and the 10yr real yield (+2.4bps) closed at a 17-month high of 2.31%.
Later on, we also had the minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting, which was the first with new Chair Kevin Warsh. The minutes added further credence to the hawkish market pricing seen since the meeting last month. While much of the committee agreed that inflation would cool as energy prices fell and one-off tariff impacts subsided, there were some worries of persistent underlying price pressures. Artificial Intelligence and the corresponding build out seemed top of mind for the committee, as “many participants noted that ongoing strong demand for AI infrastructure would likely sustain upward pressure on prices for technology products and electricity.” There is also greater concern amongst the committee that consumers and businesses are increasingly expecting higher prices.
However, most Fed officials said in the minutes that they put more weight on financial market measures of inflation expectations rather than surveyed responses.
Given the stagflationary backdrop, this meant equities took a big hit on both sides of the Atlantic. So the S&P 500 fell -0.28%, with a broad-based decline that saw 78% of the index lose ground. Once again, the move in chip stocks was against the overall market as the Philly semiconductor index (+2.23%) outperformed. The outperformance was bolstered by two large news stories. First, SK Hynix’s US offering was more than seven times oversubscribed, with the ADR set to raise nearly $24.5bn and become the second largest debut for a foreign company after Alibaba ($25bn). Second, it was reported that China had plans to allow some domestic AI companies to purchase Nvidia’s H200 chips. Outside of the semiconductor rally, the only other S&P 500 industry groups to gain yesterday were Tech Hardware (+1.52%), Energy (+1.45%), and Consumer Staples (+1.15%) – the other 21 industry groups were lower on the day.
Over in Europe, those declines were even more severe, with Spain seeing the worst of the declines after Trump renewed his calls to end trade with Spain. This was at the NATO summit, where he said “Spain is a wasted cause” and that “We don’t want to do any trade business with Spain anymore.” Moreover, WSJ reporter Brian Schwartz posted that US officials would provide Trump a list of Spanish products that could be embargoed in the coming days. So that meant the IBEX 35 (-2.73%) posted a significant decline, sharply underperforming the Europe-wide STOXX 600 (-1.61%). That said, there wasn’t much good news anywhere in Europe, with the DAX (-2.23%), the CAC 40 (-2.18%) and the FTSE MIB (-1.22%) all posting significant declines as well.
Coming back to China, June inflation data revealed a diverging trend, highlighting uneven price pressures in the economy. CPI eased more than expected, rising +1.0% year-over-year (vs. +1.1% consensus) and slowing from May’s +1.2% reading. In contrast, factory-gate inflation (PPI) accelerated to a four-year high of +4.1% year-over-year, matching forecasts. On a month-over-month basis, however, producer prices fell -0.3%, the first such decline since July 2025.
Looking at the day ahead now, data releases include US existing home sales for June, and the weekly initial jobless claims. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll get the ECB’s account of their June meeting, and hear from the ECB’s Escriva, the Fed’s Williams and Logan, and the BoE’s Breeden.
1 b European opening report
Positive risk tone as Trump comments outweigh tit-for-tat strikes – Newsquawk US Market Open
Thursday, Jul 09, 2026 – 06:04 AM
- US struck around 90 Iranian military targets. In return, the IRGC said it attacked two US bases in Bahrain and two in Kuwait.
- CNN reported that US President Trump is losing patience with the pace of negotiations, particularly on nuclear.
- Crude benchmarks were firmer overnight, but moved lower as the European morning progressed as markets reacted to Trump’s remarks that Iran wanted to make a deal. Brent Sep’26 now off lows, and now flat.
- European bourses are firmer, with US equity futures also following suit; NQ +0.6%.
- G10s are mostly firmer against the slightly lower USD; Kiwi outperforms.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/04), Existing Home Sales (Jun), ECB Minutes (Jun), Banxico Minutes (Jun), Speakers include Fed’s Williams, Logan, BoE’s Breeden, Supply from the US and Earnings from PepsiCo.
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
IRAN CONFLICT
Overnight:
- US CENTCOM announced the completion of its most recent round of strikes against Iran, in which forces struck around 90 Iranian military targets. There were reports of fresh explosions in Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Hormozgan. There have also been reports of explosions in Abu Musa Island and Bushehr. Nour news reported that the attack on Bushehr did not cause any damage to the nuclear power plant.
- The IRGC later announced that two US bases in Kuwait and two base in Bahrain were attacked and threatened that response will be extended to other US bases in the region if the US repeats its attacks.
Trump suggested that Iran wanted to make a deal:
- US President Trump said Iran was just hit very hard and we have many ways to win. He added that he do not know if Iran will honour a deal but Iran wants to make a deal badly.
- US President Trump said Iran called a while ago, they want to make a deal.
Full updates can be found in the geopolitical section at the bottom of the sheet.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) opened with gains as markets generally look through the geopolitical escalation. FTSE 100 is the laggard as energy majors pull back and AstraZeneca slumps, IBEX 35 is the clear outperformer after US-Spain trade-related underperformance on Wednesday.
- To briefly recap events overnight, tit-for-tat strikes were conducted by the US on around 90 Iranian targets, and the IRGC fired on military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. Markets remain optimistic, focusing on remarks from US President Trump, who said he spoke with Iran, and that they want to make a deal.
- European sectors opened with a positive, risk-on bias and continue this way in quiet EU trade. Tech and Basic Resources outperform, while Energy and Utilities are the laggards.
- Stock specifics include: AstraZeneca (-9%) CARDIO-TTRansform Phase III trial did not meet the primary endpoint of efficacy around CV mortality; Deutz (5.5%), To acquire FFG Flensburger Fahrzeugbau Gesellschaft for EUR 1.6bln.
- US equity futures conform to the positive sentiment seen across the pond, albeit to a lesser extent. Tech heavy NQ is the outperformer, while ES and RTY also perform well.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
FX
- In short, the USD is a touch softer at the expense of G10s across the board ex-CAD which has been hit by the energy pullback. Kiwi continues to lead post-RBNZ.
- NZD continues to climb, as high as 0.5739 against the USD, approaching the 22nd of June peak at 0.5741 and numerous levels thereafter. The narrative for the Kiwi is a continuation of the move seen following the RBNZ, and as the last session or two’s worth of energy action adds to, and arguably brings forward, the tentative hawkish guidance from the Bank. As a reminder, the statement said “While further OCR increases appear likely at upcoming meetings, their timing is highly uncertain.”
- CAD lags. USD/CAD at a 1.4188 peak and threatening to move higher despite energy lifting off lows, but with WTI and Brent still lower by around USD 0.40/bbl on the day. Numerous levels are in focus on either side, with the direction likely to remain firmly and almost exclusively at the whim of energy, barring a trade or similar development.
- EUR and GBP both benefit from the USD downside. EUR/USD as high as 1.1449 and Cable to 1.3431. However, the last 30 minutes or so have seen a bit of a bounce in energy, still in the red but only by around USD 0.40/bbl vs downside of c. USD 1.10/bbl at most. Action that has allowed the USD to fight back a touch, and weighed on peers with GBP/USD down to a 1.3413 low and EUR/USD back towards the overnight 1.1416 base. Given this, the DXY remains in the red and below 101.00, but only just and is eyeing a return into the green.
- For the EUR, we look to the ECB Minutes for June. However, the significant amount of developments on the geopolitical front since then mean the account is even more stale than typical. UK participants await the formal start of the Labour leadership process, though it is not expected to be a contest with just Burnham to enter.
- USD/JPY under modest pressure, broadly in-fitting with the action seen in other G10s as the USD dictates. At the mid-point of narrow 162.24-62 parameters. Specifics include Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara saying they are watching markets with a high sense of urgency.
FIXED INCOME
- A firmer start to the day for fixed income, after a relatively rangebound APAC session on account of the lack of energy follow-through to the tit-for-tat strikes by the US and Iran overnight, with the narrative potentially being that the strikes are no more of an escalation than what we saw on Tuesday night.
- Overnight, USTs held around 108-30 and were near-enough flat, Bunds similar between 125.20-30, firmer by around 10 ticks. Thereafter, in the early European morning, US President Trump said Iran “called a while ago” and they “want to make a deal”, in-fitting with his overnight language; however, the indication that contacts, likely via mediators but unconfirmed, have occurred allowed energy to pull back and lifted fixed. This was enough to bring USTs to a 109-03+ peak. However, in recent trade, as the energy complex comes off worst levels US paper has flicked slightly into the red.
- Bunds as high as 125.40, firmer by 26 ticks at best but well shy of the week’s opening level just below 127.00. Specifics for the bloc light, aside from ECB Minutes for the June meeting, which are likely more stale than usual given the MoU and more recent flare up.
- Gilts opened with gains of 28 ticks, reacting to the early-morning pickup in peers. Since, it has extended to an 87.62 peak with gains of just over 50 ticks; albeit, as is the case with peers, the benchmark remains well shy of Monday’s 88.93 opening level. For the UK, BoE’s Breeden is on the docket and may well provide further insight on Gilt-related reform. Additionally, the Labour leadership nomination process formally opens, if as expected only Burnham contends then he will be PM around the 20th of July.
- Japan sold JPY 2.5tln 5-year JGBs; b/c 3.43x (prev. 3.11x), average yield 2.020% (prev. 1.905%). Lowest accepted price 99.88 (prev. 100.35). Weighted average price 99.91 (prev. 100.41). Tail in price 0.03 (prev. 0.06).
- China Interbank bond market regulator is to reportedly curb short-term bond issuance by local government financing vehicles.
- Australia sold AUD 150mln 0.25% November 2032 I/L AGBs: b/c 3.23x (prev. 4.42x), average yield 2.1808% (prev. 2.2373%).
COMMODITIES
- Focus remains on the turbulent geopolitical situation. Overnight, the US struck various regions in Iran, aiming to degrade the IRGC’s ability to attack commercial ships. Iran responded with its own attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.
- Following the strikes, US President Trump said that Iran called a short while ago, and that they want to make a deal. Details are light at this stage, and it remains to be seen whether a call actually took place, and whether Trump was truthful of Iran seeking a deal. For now, market sentiment is positive, with traders focusing in on: a) Trump’s deal comments, b) no large-scale war so far, c) the Strait remaining open. On the latter point, whilst ships continue to traverse the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported that that some war insurers advised shipowners to pause Hormuz voyages after the latest attacks.
- Crude benchmarks extended lower this morning, after trading with mild strength overnight. However, the complex now trades flat on the session, as markets digest the overnight strikes.
- Spot gold (+0.9%) trades slightly firmer this morning, thanks to the softer USD and lower energy prices. Currently holding above the USD 4.1k/oz mark, and trades within a USD 4,054-4,118/oz range. Elsewhere, base metals are entirely in the green, following the positive risk tone. 3M LME copper trades at the upper end of a USD 13,241-13,447/t range. Elsewhere, for Lithium markets, reports have suggested that Chile’s lithium exports have almost tripled Y/Y.
- Stavropol governor said a fire at the industrial site in Stavropol has intensified, reaching fuel tanks, Interfax reported.
- UK announces issuance of electricity supply warning as heat wave strains grid.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- US President Trump said a lot of good trade deals were made with Turkey; Spain was very generous today as they honoured a request for lots of payment.
- A US official said that the US Treasury will work with USTR and the Commerce Department to present President Trump with a menu of Spanish products that may be subject to a trade embargo in the coming days.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- Andy Burnham has pledged to rebuild the country’s hard power by ensuring that billions of pounds of additional defence spending is focused on the UK rather than given to American or European companies, according to the Times’ Swinford.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- German Exports MoM (May) M/M 0.9% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.9%, Low. -1%, High. 0.5%).
- German Balance of Trade (May) 19.1B vs. Exp. 14B (Prev. 14.5B).
- German Imports MoM (May) M/M -2.5% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 1.2%, Low. -2%, High. 0.8%).
- UK RICS House Price Balance (Jun) -33% vs. Exp. -32% (Prev. -35%, Revised to -34%).
CENTRAL BANKS
- BoJ Osaka branch manager said many companies in the region expect solid earnings and share the need for further wage increases to secure workers amid labour shortages; expect significant price rises ahead.
- BoJ maintains its assessment for all 9 of Japan’s regions. Many regions said the risk of sharp drop in exports and output has declined somewhat. Many regions said firms were maintaining robust capex plans, increasing chip equipment and chip orders due to expanding global AI demand. Many regions said firms, including smaller ones, offered high wage increases this year, though some said it could be difficult to keep a hiking pay.
- RBNZ Governor Breman reiterates that the neutral OCR range is centred around 3%, need to read the economy to assess where the neutral rate is.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8036 vs exp. 6.7978 (prev. 6.8077).
- BoK Governor Shin said they are in talks with other central banks all the time to discuss markets, sees a strong chance of a stronger KRW.
- Taiwan Central Bank Governor said concerns remain about the possibility of an AI bubble.
- BoK Governor Shin said interest rates need to be raised at an appropriate time.
- BoK said KRW weakness is sharper than other major currencies, will continue making market stabilising efforts, inflation seen exceeding target with demand-side pressure growing gradually.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump said he is a bigger fan of SAVE America than the housing bill.
- The US Senate committee will reportedly vote next week on a bill to toughen the US government ban on Chinese automakers from entering the US market.
- US President Trump said he will be asking for a rehearing by the Supreme Court on birthright citizenship.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Overnight strikes:
- At the direction of the Commander in Chief, US Central Command forces have started conducting additional strikes against Iran to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is holding Iran accountable for recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews freely navigating a vital international waterway.
- US military base in Kuwait was hit in an Iranian retaliatory attack, while explosions heard at the US Fifth fleet HQ in Bahrain.
- Iranian missiles targeted the Azraq base in eastern Jordan, Fars reported.
- Iranian opposition sources report that maritime industries, shipyards, and the Revolutionary Guards’ naval base in Bandar Abbas were attacked, report Kan News.
US Commentary:
- US President Trump said Iran called a while ago, they want to make a deal.
- US President Trump’s frustration with Iran was due in part to his anger over the Strait not being fully open yet and that Iran hit ships transiting the Strait, CNN reported citing a US official. The official added that Trump is losing patience with the pace of negotiations, specifically Iran’s appearing to slow walk Washington on the nuclear talks.
- US President Trump posted “This is in retribution for yesterday’s bombing of ships by Iran. If it happens again, it will get much worse!”.
- US President Trump said Iran was just hit very hard, we have many ways to win; do not know if Iran will honour a deal but Iran wants to make a deal badly. Europe wants to help on Iran.
- A US official said the ceasefire with Iran has been halted, at least temporarily, CNN reported.
- “Everything depends on Iran’s response – if they continue to shoot, the night’s events could become a daily, weekly event. We are prepared,” i24News reported citing a US source.
- The length and severity of the new campaign depends entirely on Tehran’s next moves, Axios reported citing a US official; The White House is preparing for a multi-day or multi-week exchange of fire with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.
- Israel has no connection to the US strikes on Iran, Al Arabiya reported citing an Israeli military source. Any attempt to target Israel will be met with a swift, decisive and strong response.
Iran Commentary:
- Iran’s Bushehr Governor said that US attacks on a nuclear plant in the region are not true.
- Iran’s advisor to the Supreme Leader Rezaei said “martyr Khamenei taught us not to fear American and showed that falsehood will perish. Await the hard slap from the Iranians”.
- Iran’s IRGC said they will respond to the targeting of a bridge in Aqqala, Al Arabiya reported.
- Iran’s IRGC said two US bases in Kuwait and two base in Bahrain were attacked, response will be extended to other US bases in the region if the US repeats its attacks.
- Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said America has not yet learned that bullying and breach of promise are no longer free, adds the Strait of Hormuz will only open with Iranian arrangements, not American threats.
- The US attack on Bushehr did not cause any damage to the nuclear power plant, Nour news reported citing a source.
Lebanon:
- “The US ambassador in Beirut: Negotiations between Lebanon and Israel have moved to Rome for technical reasons”, via Al Arabiya. Preparations are underway regarding the start of work in the pilot areas.
- Israeli Defence Minister Katz said they will remain within the Lebanon security zone and will operate within it until Hezbollah is disarmed.
Others
- EU reportedly puts trade ban with Israeli settlements on the table, Euronews reported.
- US President Trump said have not decided on pulling troops out of Greenland.
- Wednesday’s strikes were broader in scope than the strikes the day before, targeting IRGC coastal radars, anti-ship missile sites and air defence systems, Axios’ Ravid reported citing a senior US official.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukraine’s Military said it struck 12 Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said the military has struck Russian oil depots in the Tver and Stavropol Regions; also strikes on a Russian oil pumping Station in Ufa and oil terminal in the Rostov region.
- reported of explosions in Dnipro, Ukraine.
- A Russian official said two tankers were attacked by drones in the Sea of Azov.
- A Russian governor said a fire has occurred in one tank of the Tverskaya oil deposit enterprise as a result of a UAV attack and all districts of the Kershon region are partially or completely depowered, Interfax reported.
- Russian governor said a UAV raid caused a fire at an industrial facility in Stavropol, Interfax reported.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is a little firmer this morning, following the positive risk tone; BTC holds just shy of the USD 63k.
APAC TRADE
- Asia-Pac stocks initially proved resilient to the recent US-Iran strikes, with the majority of indices opening with decent gains. However, as the session progressed, market reversed, with the Nikkei 225 the only index printed gains. The reversal came without a clear driver, which highlights the extreme volatility in equity markets.
- ASX 200 began trade with losses and continued to trade in the red, however stabilised above 8,700. Energy was the sector outperformer, while Metals & Mining lagged for a fourth straight session.
- Nikkei 225 was the only index printing gains, helped by gains in Kioxia, after Bain Capital announced the sale of its entire stake, and Tokyo Election, as it highlighted the ability to cut chip gear delivery times by 50%.
- KOSPI initially surged at the open, following on from the tech-led gains stateside, with Samsung and SK Hynix printing gains of over 5% at one point. However, the index reversed, driven by the losses in the two tech giants, highlighting the extreme volatility in the South Korean benchmark. The KOSPI volatility index currently stands at 87.41, compared to Nasdaq’s 27.86.
- Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng opened with modest gains but gave back slightly. It was another day of IPOs for the Hang Seng, with the introduction of Luxshare Precision Industry, which didn’t start as hoped.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kiara said they are watching markets with a high sense of urgency.
- China announces issuance of guidelines to promote the retail sector.
- South Korean official said Won weakness is temporary.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Taiwan Exports YoY (Jun) Y/Y 40.3% (Prev. 51.7%).
- Taiwan Balance of Trade (Jun) 12.20B (Prev. 17.91B).
- Taiwan Imports YoY (Jun) Y/Y 51.80% (Prev. 54.9%).
- Japanese Machine Tool Orders YoY (Jun) Y/Y 52.8% vs. Exp. 37.4% (Prev. 37.4%).
- Japanese Stock Investment by Foreigners (Jul/04) -22.2B (Prev. -1816.5B).
- Japanese Foreign Stock Investment (Jul/04) 824.5B (Prev. 147.8B).
- Japanese Bond Investment by Foreigners (Jul/04) -5.9B (Prev. -502.3B).
- Japanese Foreign Bond Investment (Jul/04) -218.1B (Prev. -280.1B).
- Chinese PPI YoY (Jun) Y/Y 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 3.9%, Low. 2.6%, High. 4.5%).
- Chinese Inflation Rate MoM (Jun) M/M -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.1%, Low. -0.6%, High. 0%).
- Chinese Inflation Rate YoY (Jun) Y/Y 1.0% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.2%, Low. 0.8%, High. 1.5%).
1 c) Asian opening report
Europe primed for firm open as energy looks past US-Iran strikes – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Thursday, Jul 09, 2026 – 02:10 AM
- US struck around 90 Iranian military targets. In return, the IRGC said it attacked two US bases in Bahrain and two in Kuwait.
- CNN reports that US President Trump is losing patience with the pace of negotiations, particularly on nuclear.
- Energy benchmarks modestly bid, but in relatively narrow ranges; downside seen in the early European morning as Trump reiterates that Iran wants to make a deal.
- APAC trade was initially resilient to the above, before then reversing as the night progressed.
- FOMC Minutes outlined that a few saw a case for raising rates, several did not see the stance as restrictive, a few as slightly restrictive.
- NZD continues to lead the FX space, USD is under modest pressure. Fixed rangebound, taking direction from energy.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade Balance (May), US Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/04), Existing Home Sales (Jun), ECB Minutes (Jun), Banxico Minutes (Jun), Speakers include Fed’s Williams, Logan, BoE’s Breeden, Supply from the US and Earnings from PepsiCo.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump said Iran was just hit very hard and we have many ways to win. He added that he do not know if Iran will honour a deal but Iran wants to make a deal badly.
- US President Trump posted “This is in retribution for yesterday’s bombing of ships by Iran. If it happens again, it will get much worse!”
- US CENTCOM announced the completion of its most recent round of strikes against Iran, in which forces struck around 90 Iranian military targets. There were reports of fresh explosions in Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Hormozgan. There have also been reports of explosions in Abu Musa Island and Bushehr. Nour news reported that the attack on Bushehr did not cause any damage to the nuclear power plant.
- A US official later said that the US air force bombed two railway bridges in Iran, Axios’ Ravid reported. In response, Iran’s IRGC said they would respond to the targeting of a bridge in Aqqala.
- An Iranian source said the armed forces will begin a widespread attack on US army bases in the region shortly, Nour News reported. Sirens and explosions were reported in Kuwait and Bahrain with reports of Iranian missiles targeting the Azraq base in eastern Jordan. The IRGC later announced that two US bases in Kuwait and two base in Bahrain were attacked and threatened that response will be extended to other US bases in the region if the US repeats its attacks.
- US VP Vance, on Iran, said if they shoot our ships, or try to close strait of Hormuz, we will respond.
- The length and severity of the new campaign depends entirely on Tehran’s next moves, Axios reported citing a US official. The White House is preparing for a multi-day or multi-week exchange of fire with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.
- US President Trump’s frustration with Iran was due in part to his anger over the Strait not being fully open yet and that Iran hit ships transiting the Strait, CNN reported citing a US official. The official added that Trump is losing patience with the pace of negotiations, specifically Iran’s appearing to slow walk Washington on the nuclear talks.
- A US official said the ceasefire with Iran has been halted, at least temporarily, CNN reported.
- Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said America has not yet learned that bullying and breach of promise are no longer free. He added the Strait of Hormuz will only open with Iranian arrangements, not American threats.
- US CENTCOM said more than 20 US Navy warships are patrolling waters across the Middle East as CENTCOM forces continue promoting regional security and stability.
- Some war insurers advise shipowners to pause Hormuz voyages after attacks, according to Reuters citing sources.
- Lebanon demanded Israel’s withdrawal from two “pilot zones” in the south before participating in the next round of direct negotiations in Rome next week, a diplomatic source familiar with the talks told AFP.
- Iraq has agreed to new controls aimed at preventing US dollars from flowing to Iran and its militia allies in exchange for the Trump administration lifting a four-month suspension in shipments of American currency to Baghdad, WSJ reported citing sources.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks ultimately closed mixed on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq in the green while the S&P 500 finished marginally lower. The Dow and Russell 2000 were the clear laggards. Sector performance was predominantly weaker, although Technology and Energy closed in positive territory, while Materials underperformed amid broad weakness in metal prices. The primary driver throughout the session was the renewed escalation in Middle East tensions. Overnight, the US struck targets in southern Iran, prompting Tehran to retaliate with attacks on US military sites in the Gulf. Later in the day, President Trump said he believed the ceasefire was over, further lifting geopolitical risk sentiment. Also, in late trade, explosions were heard across southern Iran.
- SPX -0.28% at 7,483, NDX +0.27% at 29,253, DJI -1.09% at 52,353, RUT -0.88% at 2,956
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said we will give companies up to two years to build in the US; if not, they must pay up to 250% tariff.
- US President Trump said a lot of good trade deals were made with Turkey and that Spain was very generous today as they honoured a request for lots of payment.
- A US official said that the US Treasury will work with USTR and the Commerce Department to present President Trump with a menu of Spanish products that may be subject to a trade embargo in the coming days.
CENTRAL BANKS
- FOMC MINUTES: Participants generally saw upside risks to price stability as elevated, while downside risks to maximum employment goal had moderated a bit. A few participants commented that, in light of these developments, there was a case for raising the target range for the federal funds rate. On policy, several participants remarked that they did not see the current policy stance as restrictive, while a few other participants commented that they saw the current policy stance as slightly restrictive. Most participants, however, also pointed to scenarios in which, in the context of stable labour market conditions, inflation would remain elevated due to strong AI-related demand, the conflict in the Middle East, or the effects of tariffs. In such scenarios, almost all of these participants indicated that some policy firming would likely be warranted to return inflation to 2%.
- SNB Chairman said we are at 0% rates and the bar to go negative is high, but we would do it if necessary. Schlegel also said they are ready to intervene in the FX market if needed.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump said he will be asking for a rehearing by the Supreme Court on birthright citizenship.
- The US Senate committee will reportedly vote next week on a bill to toughen the US government ban on Chinese automakers from entering the US market.
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2 26): 1.3% (prev. 1.4%).
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- Asia-Pac stocks initially proved resilient to the recent US-Iran strikes, with the majority of indices opening with decent gains. However, as the session progressed, market reversed, with the Nikkei 225 the only index printed gains. The reversal came without a clear driver, which highlights the extreme volatility in equity markets.
- ASX 200 began trade with losses and continued to trade in the red, however stabilised above 8,700. Energy was the sector outperformer, while Metals & Mining lagged for a fourth straight session.
- Nikkei 225 was the only index printing gains, helped by gains in Kioxia, after Bain Capital announced the sale of its entire stake, and Tokyo Election, as it highlighted the ability to cut chip gear delivery times by 50%.
- KOSPI initially surged at the open, following on from the tech-led gains stateside, with Samsung and SK Hynix printing gains of over 5% at one point. However, the index reversed, driven by the losses in the two tech giants, highlighting the extreme volatility in the South Korean benchmark. The KOSPI volatility index currently stands at 87.41, compared to Nasdaq’s 27.86.
- Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng. opened with modest gains but gave back slightly. It was another day of IPOs for the Hang Seng, with the introduction of Luxshare Precision Industry, which didn’t start as hoped.
- US equity futures traded with modest gains across the board.
- European equity futures are indicative of a firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +1.0% after cash closed -1.8% on Wednesday.
FX
- DXY continued to trade on the softer side, trading at the lower end of its 100.94-101.04 range. Price action on Wednesday was puzzling, with the index closing lower despite the higher energy prices. With the most recent CFTC figures showing aggregate dollar long increasing to its highest amount in over a decade, further upside in the USD may be limited.
- EUR and GBP traded rangebound in their respective 1.1417-1.1430 and 1.3386-1.3404 range. A light docket ahead for both regions, with the EUR just awaiting June’s ECB minutes.
- USD/JPY slipped below the 162.50 handle and found resistance at the key level. JPY on the weakest currency on a weekly timeframe, and without any intervention by the MoF or hikes by the BoJ, further weakness looks set to continue.
- Antipodeans traded mixed, with the Kiwi the clear G10 outperformer as gains continued following the RBNZ rate hike on Wednesday.
- CNH was slightly firmer against the dollar, despite a broadly cooler inflation print. Headline inflation Y/Y printed at 1.0% (exp. 1.1%, prev. 1.2%). However, as expected, PPI continued to accelerate as it rose to 4.1% from 3.9%
FIXED INCOME
- Global fixed income benchmarks traded rangebound, helped by the lack of movement in energy prices. Government debt continues to be hit when energy benchmarks take a leg higher, as worries of pass-through into inflation alter the central bank’s policy reaction.
- UST Futures oscillated in a narrow 128-27 to 108-31 band, with the 10yr yield topping just shy of the 4.60% mark in Wednesday’s session. The 10-year bond auction brought in strong demand, similar to the 3-year auction on Tuesday; however, this was dismissed as geopolitics remained front and centre. Ahead is a 30-year auction, which may bring strong demand as the 30yr yield returns back above 5.00%.
- Bund Futures, similarly, traded in a tight 13-tick range. Contrary to the US auction, the 10-year Bund auction was poor. Debt fell following the auction, however bunds were already lower by c. 80 ticks pre-auction. The ECB minutes for the June meeting is on the docket later, with focus on how the committee viewed the July vs September argument at the time.
- JGB Futures rotated in a 126.31-126.65 range. Moody’s came out with some positive commentary for Japan, reiterating its stable view despite the prospect of trillions of dollars of government spending. The 5-year auction brought in strong demand, with the b/c higher than the 12-month average; however, debt did trade lower following the auction.
- US sells USD 39bln of 10-year notes; Stop through 0.6bps.
- Japan sells JPY 2.5tln 5-year JGBs; b/c 3.43x (prev. 3.11x), average yield 2.020% (prev. 1.905%).
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were fairly unreactive at the start of Thursday’s trade, despite the tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran. Following US President Trump’s threat of strikes at the NATO summit, US CENTCOM announced a fresh wave of attacks against military targets, with multiple areas in southern Iran hit. Bushehr, home of Iran’s nuclear plant, was targeted; no damage to the plant was reported. In retaliation, Iran struck US bases across the Gulf, including Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. Iranian officials maintain their stance on the Strait of Hormuz, with Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf stating it will only open with an Iranian arrangement, not with American threats. WTI and Brent rotated in their respective USD 73.88-75.13/bbl and USD 78.39-79.21/bbl range.
- Precious Metals traded in narrow ranges, but held onto Wednesday’s late bid higher, supported by the softer dollar. Spot gold traded in a USD 4054-4090/oz range. Taking a hint from ETF inflows, the yellow metal is seemingly finding value around USD 4k/oz, with around USD 8bln of net inflows in H1’26.
- 3M LME Copper was firmer, returning above the USD 13.2k/t handle, following the initial positive sentiment in Asia-Pac equities.
- Citi expects Brent to average USD 70/bbl in Q4’26 and USD 65/bbl in 2027, conditional on a US-Iran agreement and the reopening of Hormuz
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin found support at the 20-SMA and rotated in a USD 61.64k-62.6k range.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Inflation Rate YoY (Jun) Y/Y 1.0% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.2%, Low. 0.8%, High. 1.5%).
- Chinese Inflation Rate MoM (Jun) M/M -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.1%, Low. -0.6%, High. 0%).
- Chinese PPI YoY (Jun) Y/Y 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 3.9%, Low. 2.6%, High. 4.5%).
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- The Stavropol governor said a fire at the industrial site in Stavropol has intensified, reaching fuel tanks. This came following earlier comments stating that a UAV raid caused a fire at an industrial facility in Stavropol.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Andy Burnham has pledged to rebuild the country’s hard power by ensuring that billions of pounds of additional defence spending is focused on the UK rather than given to American or European companies, according to the Times’ Swinford.
- Andy Burnham is reportedly discussing plans to give the next deputy PM control of his new Downing Street outpost in Manchester, the FT reports citing sources
- UK RICS House Price Balance (Jun) -33% vs. Exp. -32% (Prev. -35%, Revised to -34%). “Until there is greater clarity over both the political backdrop and the path of interest rates, housing market activity is likely to remain relatively subdued in the near term.”
NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN
SOUTH KOREA
JAPAN
3 CHINA
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
EU
EU Mandates Dystopian In-Car Cameras To Monitor Every Driver’s Face
Thursday, Jul 09, 2026 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,
The European Union has made it official. Every brand-new passenger car, van, truck, and bus sold or first registered across the bloc must now carry interior-facing cameras that track the driver’s gaze, head movements, and attention levels.
The system, called Advanced Driver Distraction Warning or ADDW, forms part of the final phase of the updated ‘General Safety Regulation’ for all vehicles.
The compulsory hardware activates at low speeds and tightens requirements as velocity increases, issuing escalating visual, acoustic, or haptic warnings when the driver looks away for too long.
Proponents frame it as life-saving technology that keeps eyes on the road. Skeptics see installed cameras and sensors as the foundation for far broader monitoring once the infrastructure exists in every vehicle on the continent.
The European Commission promoted the rollout this week.
A detailed thread from an observer on the ground captured the full scope and the quiet expansion of capabilities already underway.
ADDW relies on camera-based monitoring of eye position, head orientation, and gaze direction. It divides the driver’s field of view into defined zones and flags prolonged focus on non-forward areas.
At speeds of 50 km/h or above, a continuous gaze into the “distraction” zone for more than 3.5 seconds triggers a warning. At 20 km/h or higher, the threshold stretches to 6 seconds before intervention begins. Warnings intensify until the driver returns attention to the road.
The regulation also mandates an Event Data Recorder – essentially a vehicle black box – that captures speed, braking, steering inputs, and other telemetry in the event of a collision.
Current rules state the distraction cameras must operate without biometric identification or facial recognition of occupants and must function as a closed-loop system that retains only data necessary for immediate operation. No video is supposed to leave the vehicle for authorities under the present framework.
Even industry voices celebrating the mandate acknowledge its wider significance. Martin Krantz, CEO and Founder of Smart Eye, a company specializing in driver-monitoring technology, called July 7 “a landmark day for road safety in Europe” and stated that “driver monitoring is now a required part of vehicle safety across Europe.” He added that the regulation “will set a precedent for other parts of the world.”
This European passenger-car mandate extends monitoring logic already advancing in commercial vehicles on both sides of the Atlantic.
Earlier this year, reports detailed Ford patents for in-cab systems that deploy AI to scan faces, read lips via interior cameras and machine-learning datasets, detect emotional states, and query police databases in real time before permitting the truck to shift out of park.
DYSTOPIAN Truck Tech: AI Scans Faces, Reads Lips & Checks Police Database BEFORE You Can Drive
Viral video blows open patents turning vehicles into surveillance pods
The technology can block movement if sensors interpret panic, enlarged eyes, or other flagged conditions as rendering the driver unfit – even in an emergency scenario where quick action might otherwise be required.
Lip-reading capabilities extend to noisy environments using additional inaudible sound-wave analysis, while existing Ford Pro Telematics already streams live cabin video to fleet managers.
These features sit alongside broader federal pushes for impaired-driving prevention technology and state-level efforts to ration vehicle miles traveled.
Federal infrastructure rules have also embedded timelines for impaired-driving prevention technology that can include kill-switch capabilities.
The pattern connects directly to proposals that would limit how far citizens can drive their own cars under climate or congestion pretexts.
Massachusetts Dems Advance Bill to LIMIT How Far You Can DRIVE In Your Own Car
Latest front in the war on personal mobility
In both the truck patents and the EU rules now live, the justification remains identical: safety. The hardware – cameras, sensors, data recorders – creates the permanent capacity for escalation.
Software updates, regulatory expansions, or integration with digital identity systems could transform today’s “warning only” cameras into tomorrow’s behavior scorers, usage trackers, or remote intervention tools.
Regulators insist the systems avoid biometric processing and external data transmission. Manufacturers must design for minimal false positives across lighting and weather conditions, and drivers may retain some ability to deactivate warnings or the full system depending on the vehicle maker’s implementation.
Yet real-world feedback from early adopters already in vehicles with similar driver-monitoring features describes repeated false alerts, difficulty disabling the systems permanently, and the unsettling sensation of constant observation inside what was once private space.
Critics note that once cameras and processors sit inside millions of vehicles, the temptation to expand their role grows. Detecting phone use, enforcing seat-belt compliance, flagging speeding, or feeding data into insurance algorithms requires only software changes or new regulatory layers.
The Event Data Recorder already creates a forensic record of driving behavior. Combined with facial and gaze tracking, the foundation for individualized mobility scoring sits ready.
Each measure arrives wrapped in safety or environmental language. Each installs or enables hardware and data pathways that reduce the automobile from personal property to a conditionally licensed device subject to external oversight.
The through-line is unmistakable. Governments and aligned corporations are systematically converting the act of driving into a monitored, recorded, and potentially rationed activity.
Older vehicles without these systems become the last refuges of untracked mobility – precisely why enthusiasts already recommend acquiring pre-mandate models while they remain available and repairable.
Automobiles once represented escape, independence, and the open road. The new normal replaces that with cabin cameras that never blink, black boxes that never forget, and regulatory frameworks that can tighten without new legislation simply by updating software or “safety” standards.
The EU’s ADDW mandate, the Ford truck patents, and the Massachusetts driving-limit proposals all serve the same underlying project: conditioning personal movement on algorithmic approval and constant data surrender.
The cameras are watching now. The question is whether free people will continue to look away.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
END
GERMANY PORSCHE
German economy has been badly beaten up
(zerohedge)
Porsche Sales Tumble To Weakest In Six Years As Chinese Demand Plummets
Thursday, Jul 09, 2026 – 09:20 AM
Days after Germany’s top financial newspaper, Handelsblatt, reported that Porsche AG is planning more than 4,000 job cuts, the sports-car maker on Thursday revealed first-half sales figures that were the weakest in six years, with its China business falling off a cliff.
For the January to June period, Porsche reported 122,306 vehicle deliveries across global markets, a 16% decline from the same period a year earlier.
The first-half slump marked Porsche’s weakest sales performance since 2020, with its top market, North America, seeing a 13% decline in vehicle sales, while China suffered an outright 32% decline.
Softening luxury demand in the West and China’s deepening slowdown are increasingly concerning for the high-end automaker.
“With around 122,000 customer deliveries in the first half of 2026, we are below the same period last year but in line with our expectations,” Matthias Becker, Member of the Executive Board for Sales and Marketing at Porsche AG, wrote in a statement.
Porsche blamed the slowdown in North America on several issues:
Among the sales regions, North America remains at the top with 37,712 deliveries. The decline of around 13 per cent can be attributed, among other factors, to the expiration of tax incentives for electric and hybrid vehicles as well as the end of production of the combustion-engined 718.
Dismal delivery figures follow a report by Handelsblatt that said Porsche was considering eliminating as many as 4,000.
Porsche’s profit eroded further in the first quarter as the automaker faced mounting pressure from tariffs, geopolitical turmoil, and gaps in its model lineup. The emergence of Chinese EV giants like BYD and Chery in Europe has been a troubling development not just for Porsche but other legacy EU automakers.
Porsche is part of the Volkswagen Group, where the VW CEO recently warned that more than 100,000 jobs could be eliminated as part of a massive overhaul.
end
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//
ISRAEL USA/IRAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
After Tonight’s Strikes, Trump Threatens “Much Worse” Bombing If Iran Doesn’t Stop Attacks
Wednesday, Jul 08, 2026 – 04:05 PM
Summary
- Trump threatens “it will get much worse” after Wednesday night US attack wave commences along Iran’s coast.
- Trump tells NATO summit that Iran wants to assassinate him: “on every single one of their list.”
- Iran threatens to reclose the Strait of Hormuz and suspended final talks with the US.
- The US earlier revoked an Iranian oil waiver & now signals readiness to restore a maritime blockade.
- Trump said the ceasefire is over and warned of fresh US strikes on Iran, probably “tonight”.
- Oil jumps above $80 as fears of renewed conflict & return to Hormuz Strait closure intensifies.
* * *
Trump Threatens “Much Worse” Bombing If Iran Doesn’t Stop Attacks
Following the earlier (threatened) strikes. President Trump has taken to his Truth Social account to explain to Iran what happens next:
“This is in retribution for yesterday’s bombing of ships by Iran. If it happens again, it will get much worse!”
His post also included the following image of an explosion in Chabahar…
We suspect this will only serve to further bolster whatever group is actually attacking the tankers.
Another US Strike Wave On Iran Commences
After 11pm Tehran time, there are fresh reports of explosions across multiple locations along Iran’s coast, coming from several regional sources:
- Explosions heard in Bandar Abbas and Sirik in the south of the country
- Explosions heard in several areas of Hormozgan, Al Jazeera reports;
- Air defenses activated on Sirik Island
- Explosions reported in Bandar Abbas, Iran, Jerusalem post reports
This has come within hours of Iran having announced the suspension of talks on a final settlement with the United States. Also, President Trump earlier during the NATO summit warned that more US strikes would be forthcoming tonight – it appears he’s making good on this threat. “I’ll give a little warning: We’re going to hit them hard tonight,” he told reporters just before his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Reports of IRGC base targeted & struck:
More images emerging from the nighttime raids:
Like last night, Iran’s military is expected to respond, after the following warning: Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister says recent actions by US won’t stay without response, IRIB reports. Below is confirmation that the attacks are indeed underway:
- The US has informed Tel Aviv that it will launch powerful strikes against Iran tonight, Al Arabiya reports citing an Israeli source
- Iranian opposition sources report that maritime industries, shipyards, and the Revolutionary Guards’ naval base in Bandar Abbas were attacked, report Kan News
- Wednesday’s strikes were broader in scope than the strikes the day before, targeting IRGC coastal radars, anti-ship missile sites and air defense systems, Axios’ Ravid reports citing a senior US official
end
ISRAEL IRAN/USA WEDNESDAY LATE EVENING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING;
Iran Hits Back, Launching Missiles On Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar – Ignoring Trump’s Warning Of “Much Worse” Bombing
Wednesday, Jul 08, 2026 – 09:30 PM
Summary
- Iran retaliates: air defenses reportedly active over Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait.
- Trump threatens “it will get much worse” after Wednesday night US attack wave commences along Iran’s coast.
- Trump tells NATO summit that Iran wants to assassinate him: “on every single one of their list.”
- Iran threatens to reclose the Strait of Hormuz and suspended final talks with the US.
- The US earlier revoked an Iranian oil waiver & now signals readiness to restore a maritime blockade.
- Trump said the ceasefire is over and warned of fresh US strikes on Iran, probably “tonight”.
- Oil jumps above $80 as fears of renewed conflict & return to Hormuz Strait closure intensifies.
* * *
Iranian Retaliation: Air Defenses Active Over Bahrain, Kuwait
Nearing 5am Tehran time, and there are incoming reports of Iranian retaliation against Gulf states, which it seems is set to become a predictable pattern – after hours ago the US launched fresh airstrikes on Iranian island and coastal areas near the Hormuz Strait. According to developing reports via AFP and other sources:
- Explosions heard in Bahrain after air raid sirens: AFP
- Kuwait says responding to ‘hostile’ missile, drone attacks
- U.S. forces struck two railway bridges in northern Iran with cruise missiles—the first U.S. attack on Iranian infrastructure since the April 8 ceasefire.
Reports (unconfirmed) also suggest that missiles are being fired on Qatar – which hasn’t happened in quite a while. Iran has reportedly launched ballistic missiles at the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, in a first since early March.
Meanwhile, the view from Russia on two war theatres escalating once again, and at the same time…
Trump Threatens “Much Worse” Bombing If Iran Doesn’t Stop Attacks
Following the earlier (threatened) strikes. President Trump has taken to his Truth Social account to explain to Iran what happens next:
“This is in retribution for yesterday’s bombing of ships by Iran. If it happens again, it will get much worse!”
His post also included the following image of an alleged explosion in Chabahar (though it is unclear if this is a current photo)…
We suspect this will only serve to further bolster whatever group is actually attacking the tankers.
Another US Strike Wave On Iran Commences
After 11pm Tehran time, there are fresh reports of explosions across multiple locations along Iran’s coast, coming from several regional sources:
- Explosions heard in Bandar Abbas and Sirik in the south of the country
- Explosions heard in several areas of Hormozgan, Al Jazeera reports;
- Air defenses activated on Sirik Island
- Explosions reported in Bandar Abbas, Iran, Jerusalem post reports
This has come within hours of Iran having announced the suspension of talks on a final settlement with the United States. Also, President Trump earlier during the NATO summit warned that more US strikes would be forthcoming tonight – it appears he’s making good on this threat. “I’ll give a little warning: We’re going to hit them hard tonight,” he told reporters just before his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Reports of IRGC base targeted & struck:
More images emerging from the nighttime raids:
Like last night, Iran’s military is expected to respond, after the following warning: Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister says recent actions by US won’t stay without response, IRIB reports. Below is confirmation that the attacks are indeed underway:
- The US has informed Tel Aviv that it will launch powerful strikes against Iran tonight, Al Arabiya reports citing an Israeli source
- Iranian opposition sources report that maritime industries, shipyards, and the Revolutionary Guards’ naval base in Bandar Abbas were attacked, report Kan News
- Wednesday’s strikes were broader in scope than the strikes the day before, targeting IRGC coastal radars, anti-ship missile sites and air defense systems, Axios’ Ravid reports citing a senior US official
Trump Tells NATO Summit Iranians Want To Assassinate Him
President Trump while giving a closing address at the end of the NATO summit in Ankara repeatedly claimed that Iran was plotting to assassinate him, saying he was “on every single one of their list.” He claimed: “They want to take out the US Leader. I’m on every single one of their list. So far, I’ve had a bit of luck, but maybe it won’t last. They’re evil and sick people, and we must get rid of this cancer.”
He suggested that it’s time to “finish the job” and yet at other times while fielding questions from reporters shied away from laying out anything that sounds like regime change. Instead he opted to again talk about how the US can never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon. He again stressed that “lunatics” can never have a nuclear weapon.
On the claimed assassination plot, it’s unclear whether he has something specific in mind, in terms of a recent statement from the Iranian government. He could be referencing media reports from earlier this week quoting mourners and speakers at Khamenei’s funeral. For example the following was in a Tuesday Reuters report:
As they passed under a bridge, mourners hurled stones at a billboard hung from above showing U.S. President Donald Trump with a bullet aimed at his head.
“The U.S. killed our father,” it read. “We won’t let you go!”
As demonstrators set fire to U.S. and British flags, women in black chadors held aloft red placards with the English words “KILL TRUMP” in black letters.
Others held aloft posters with the faces of Trump, Vice President JD Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth or Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, each depicted in the crosshairs of a gunsight, with the words “There will be blood”.
Ahead of more potential renewed strikes on Iran tonight, CENTCOM is saying its forces are at the ready:
Iran Threatens To Reclose Strait, as US Military ‘Ready’ to Restart Blockade
Iran has once again threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, according to state broadcaster Press TV on Wednesday, citing an Iranian official. Iran is of course planning strait only under its own arrangements, or a protocol involving collection of fees and utilizing a designated route close to its coast, “as per the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).”
The Iranian official further warned the military stands ready to “strike at least twice the number of targets hit” in response to any strikes by the United States. “The developments of the past 48 hours show Iran won’t back down from managing the Hormuz,” the source noted.
- “The U.S. military stands ready to restart the blockade of ships to and from Iranian ports if ordered to do so, a U.S. official tells Fox News”, Fox’s Friden reports.
- “Iran suspends talks on a final settlement with the United States”, TASS reports citing an Iranian source.
“Any threat will receive a powerful response,” the official was quoted in Press TV as saying, and warned further that the Islamic Republic’s armed forces do “not distinguish between the United States and its partners in the region.” The official warned Trump that the US “will gain nothing” from making such threats.
“He (Trump) will certainly lose both the Strait of Hormuz and the negotiations over a final agreement,” said the source. “The choice is now his.” Meanwhile…
OIL EXTENDS GAINS, BRENT CRUDE RISES ABOVE $80 A BARREL
And WTI…
Trump: “Probably Hit Iran Tonight”
After earlier saying from the NATO summit in Ankara that the Iran ceasefire is “over” – and amid fears of renewal of full-scale war given that Tehran has launched drone and missile attacks on nearby American allies Kuwait and Bahrain once again, President Trump said on Wednesday that he would “probably hit Iran tonight”.
He issued the major threat and warning during a press conference at the NATO summit: “I’ll give a little warning: We’re going to hit them hard tonight,” he told reporters just before his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He later lambasted Iran for “killing soldiers, killing people for 47 years,” and that because of that, the US has “a score to settle.” He added: “We may just do it without a deal.” He also sought to once again explain his view that it’s not about regime change, but about the nuclear issue.
Geopolitical news source DropSite is pushing back against some of Trump’s newest claims, particularly that Iranians security services gunned down “54,000 protesters” during the January economic protests, commenting:
Trump today claimed Iran’s revolutionary regime killed 54,000 protesters at the start of the year, inflating the 40,000 figure he repeated through much of the US-Israeli war to justify and build support for U.S. action. There is no evidence for either figure.
HRANA, which has received U.S. funding, documented about 7,000 deaths, including many Iranian security and police. Iran puts the death toll just above 3,100 and says rioters killed civilians during protests that were overtaken by Israel- and U.S.-backed armed elements. Scores of videos from the January 2026 riots show armed men destroying mosques and government buildings and carrying out vigilante killings of security personnel.
Meanwhile, it’s not a war, Trump has repeated… but what’s next and what is the ultimate endgame here? Is there a coherent strategy yet? Trump further on Wednesday, while speaking alongside Zelensky and fielding questions, floated that “if we have to we will take out higher level targets” – and that “we may take over Kharg Island”. He again admitted the Iran deal may not stick, after the US “knocked out 28 boats last night”. He further warned that US forces will probably take out more boats tonight.
- TRUMP, ON ATTACKS TONIGHT: NOT A THING IRAN CAN DO ABOUT IT
- TRUMP:WOULD HATE TO STRIKE DESALINATION PLANTS, BUT MAY HAVE TO
- TRUMP: WE MAY PUT DOWN THE BLOCKADE ON IRAN
- TRUMP: BLOCKADE WOULD ONLY APPLY TO IRAN
Trump on Ceasefire, MoU Deal: “I think it’s over; they’re scum.”
Brent crude futures jumped more than 6% in London after President Trump told reporters at a press conference in Ankara that the tentative ceasefire with Iran is over.
“To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore; they’re scum,” Trump told reporters.
Trump’s remarks came after Iran launched missiles and kamikaze drones at several merchant vessels in the Hormuz chokepoint on Tuesday. This was countered by overnight US strikes, as fears of conflict erupting once more are on the rise.
However, Trump stopped short of saying the U.S. would restart the war and said he would let talks continue if the parties were willing.
Crude Update
In European trade, front-month Brent crude futures jumped 6% to $78.63 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 6.2% to $74.85 a barrel. Natural gas prices rose as well, with the benchmark Dutch TTF contract up 4.8% to 49.04 euros per megawatt-hour.
Hours before the strikes, the US Treasury revoked a sanctions waiver that had allowed Tehran to sell oil, reversing a key element of the interim deal.
Trump also told reporters that he would continue to let his negotiators talk to Tehran, though he thought “they’re wasting their time.”
Eroding Confidence in Strait’s Reopening
On Tuesday afternoon, the Joint Maritime Information Center upgraded the Hormuz risk rating to “Severe” after three tankers were targeted by Iran. This renewed uncertainty in the critical waterway will only pressure the normalization of vessel flows.
“Every renewed attack on commercial shipping further erodes confidence in the Strait’s reopening, making each future recovery more fragile than the last,” said Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler. “If every reopening is assumed to be temporary, freight rates remain elevated, insurance costs remain high and fewer vessels are willing to re-enter the Gulf.”
Dominic Ellis, UBS equity analyst covering oil and gas, wrote in a note:
The US carried out a new round of strikes against Iran in response to recent Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran in turn launched missile and drone attacks on US assets in Kuwait and Bahrain. While this latest escalation does not mean an end to the diplomatic progress made in recent weeks, it underscores the challenges of diplomacy when both sides believe they have the upper hand.
Markets were too quick to buy into the de-escalation narrative in my view, and while there has been evidence of progress and of a rebound in vessel flows via the Strait of Hormuz, the latest developments may lead to more realistic expectations on the return to normalcy and a slightly higher range for oil in the near term.
The likelihood of a spike above $100/b remains low, however, even in the event of further tit-for-tat strikes in the Middle East, given the surprise sustained drop in Chinese crude imports.
Latest Bloomberg data tracking ships transiting the Hormuz chokepoint with transponders on remain elevated, but the number of vessels making the East-West route has fallen dramatically, while West-East remains steady.
Also, note that the oil market’s forward curve has shifted into backwardation. This occurs when near-term futures trade at a premium to longer-dated contracts. The shift shows traders are once again willing to pay up for immediate crude supplies.
END
IRAN/ISRAEL USA THURSDAY MORNING
Return To War: Iran Fires Ballistic Missiles At Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, After US Struck 170 Iranian Targets
Thursday, Jul 09, 2026 – 08:45 AM
Just as the US nighttime strikes were significantly bigger than prior rounds in June, so has Iran’s ‘retaliation’ been bigger – chiefly on Gulf states and American bases there.
In the overnight and Thursday daytime hours, Iranian ballistic missiles and drones have targeted Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and even faraway Jordan. The country is reporting that it has intercepted several missiles, which targeted Muwaffaq Salti Air Base – jointly operated by US and Jordanian forces. Oil prices have persisted above prewar levels on Thursday.
“Jordan has intercepted eight Iranian missiles in its airspace after sirens sounded across the country, according to the armed forces,” reports Al Jazeera. “Falling shrapnel did not cause any casualties or material damage, it added.”
Following the US bombing of the Islamic Republic for a second consecutive night, which came after Iranian forces sought to enforce its own shipping route and protocol on the Strait of Hormuz (which saw several international vessels attacked), Tehran has newly confirmed it in turn struck “US bases and strategic centers” in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar.
In particular the IRGC has claimed that two US bases in Kuwait and two base in Bahrain were attacked – and the Iranian elite force is threatening more to come. US Central Command (CENTCOM) says the rate of its strikes have grown to about 14 times the number of targets hit in the last late June flare-up in fighting.
According to the figures cites in the NY Times:
U.S. forces have struck more than 170 Iranian military targets in the past two days, including air defense systems, drone and missile storage sites, military speed boats, and logistics infrastructure along the coast near the Strait of Hormuz, according to the U.S. Central Command.
CENTCOM released footage of some of the fresh strikes:
In some instances civilian infrastructure like rail lines and bridges have reportedly been hit, which marks a return to the opening months of Operation Epic Fury, when targets all across the country were damaged or obliterated.
Little that’s confirmable in the way of damage has come out of the Gulf states at this point:
Kuwait said that it had intercepted three ballistic missiles, a cruise missile and 10 drones early Thursday morning and that falling debris had injured one person and caused material damage. Bahrain’s military said it had intercepted and destroyed several drones and missiles after Iran launched attacks on Thursday.
Iran also said that it had launched an attack in Qatar, a key mediator in Iran’s talks with the United States. The Qatari authorities did not confirm any strikes but did issue a public security alert early this morning that it later lifted.
Iranian state sources have said the two days of renewed American attacks have killed 14 people and wounded 78. The casualty count could be much higher given that strikes and counterstrikes could be extended as an offramp becomes more elusive. Explosions have been observed along the Iranian coast, including Bushehr, Chabahar, Bandar Abbas, and Sirik.
As for potential offramp, President Trump is still claiming that Tehran wants to make a deal “badly” – and even specified to reporters aboard Air Force One that Iran “called a while ago” make just such a request. Most pundits and reporters, after hearing the same line literally dozens of times over the past months, are skeptical to say the least.
While this remains Trump’s public-facing rhetoric, a fresh Thursday report in The Wall Street Journal offers a contrasting account. “Angered by the strikes, Trump pressed them on whether they believed Iran was serious about reaching a final deal,” WSJ writes. “In the end, after discussing it with his senior aides, the president decided they weren’t.”
Trump had later (on Wednesday) said from Ankara at the NATO summit, “To me, I think it’s over.” He then emphasized: “I don’t want to deal with them…They’re liars, they’re cheats, they’re sick people.”
As for Tehran’s position, “An Iranian diplomat said Wednesday that the US had violated the peace deal by setting up a shipping lane that wasn’t coordinated with Tehran, contending that it justified the Islamic Republic’s decision to fire at traffic,” according to the same report.
From there, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth warned alongside Trump that the United States would hit Iran “even more, and even deeper” – after that the Pentagon announced it would “further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.”
A US official was also quoted in the WSJ as saying Iran had chosen “the path of violence” and so will face the consequences.
END
IRAN ET AL
Ghalibaf: ‘If you strike, you’ll get hit,’ IRGC claims responsibility for Kuwait, Bahrain strikes
“America still hasn’t learned that bullying and breaking promises are no longer cost-free,” Iran’s speaker of parliament, Muhammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in a post on X.
Smoke rises following a strike on the Bapco Oil Refinery, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, on Sitra Island Bahrain, March 9, 2026.(photo credit: REUTERS/STRINGER/FILE PHOTO)ByJERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 9, 2026 04:00Updated: JULY 9, 2026 05:44
Sirens sounded in Bahrain for the second time on Thursday morning, Bahrain’s interior ministry reported.
The Bahrain News Agency, Bahrain’s state media, attributed the sirens to Iranian missiles.
Sirens also sounded in Kuwait, where the defense ministry reported that the country’s air defenses “are confronting rocket and drone attacks.”
At the same time, Reuters reported that an elevated security warning was sent to mobile phones in Qatar. An all clear was sent out within 10 minutes, noting that “a threat had been eliminated.”
“America still hasn’t learned that bullying and breaking promises are no longer cost-free. Let me put it plainly: if you strike, you’ll get hit,” Iran’s speaker of parliament, Muhammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in a post on X.
“Don’t flail around pointlessly, or you’ll sink even deeper: the Strait of Hormuz will only open with ‘Iranian arrangements,’ not American threats,” Ghalibaf added.
Shortly thereafter, international media reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps took responsibility for attacking two US bases in Bahrain and two more US bases in Kuwait.
This is a developing story.
END
ISRAEL TBN..
END
IRAN/USA/ISRAEL
XX
Where does this end?
LAST NIGHT ..
Iran gave the “Go” Signal to Houthis in Yemen to Close the Strait of Bab el-Mandab; This will cut off ocean traffic to the Suez Canal.
— So far this evening, US airforce has targeted:
-IRGC naval base and gunboats in Bushehr and soldier barracks and missile launch sites.
-Oil refinery on Lavan Island.
-Chonghadsk military postions.
-Chabahar port area specifically drone and gunboat and a marine traffic control tower.
-IRGC positions on Abu Musa Island.
-Kalantari Pier and Port.
-Toosyeh Port gunboats and drones.
-Sirik IRGC locations.
-Positions in Konarak and Khoromoj.
The majority of these strikes seem aimed at hitting Iran’s capability to continue striking ships in the Hormuz.
No doubt Iran will respond
END
KUWAIT, JORDAN//IRAN
Live Updates: Sirens continue to sound in Jordan, Kuwait, as Iran says US attacks disrupt opening of strait
US strikes Iran’s defense systems • Sirens sound in Gulf states • Hamas begins dissolving its Gaza government
VESSELS AT the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 24, 2026.(photo credit: REUTERS/STRINGER)
Iran says US attacks disrupt reopening of Strait of Hormuz, statement
ByREUTERS
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy said on Thursday that US attacks on Iran and intervention in redirecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz were disrupting the strategic waterway’s gradual reopening and jeopardizing the interests of countries benefiting from it.
The Guards added that transit capacity under Iran’s supervision had recovered to about 50% of pre-war levels over the past two weeks, and that it was being expanded only for vessels granted permits to use routes designated by Iran.
They warned that any further US intervention would draw a “crushing response.”
END
Jordan intercepts Iranian missiles, no casualties
ByREUTERS
Jordan intercepted a reported 8 missiles launched from Iran, according to Jordan’s state news agency. No casualties or damages were reported as a result of the attack
END
Iran retaliates with strikes on US Gulf assets as regional sirens sound
Kuwait said its armed forces had engaged with a cruise missile, three ballistic missiles and 10 drones in its airspace, and that one person had been injured from falling shrapnel.
US Airforce (USAF) personnel work by a USAF B-1B bomber, at RAF Fairford airbase, which is used by USAF personnel, amid the US–Israeli conflict with Iran.(photo credit: REUTERS/PHIL NOBLE)ByREUTERSJULY 9, 2026 15:42Updated: JULY 9, 2026 16:13
Sirens sounded across the Middle East as Iran launched retaliatory strikes on US assets in the Gulf Region on Thursday.
Iran’s air force is flying fighter jets to “secure the skies over the funeral procession” of the former supreme leader Ali Khamenei in Mashhad, the regime-affiliated Fars news agency said.
The retaliatory strikes come after the US struck around 90 sites overnight from Wednesday to Thursday in Iran.
The most recent round of US strikes was completed early Thursday morning in Iran. The US military struck various sites throughout southern Iran “to further degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping and innocent civil mariners in the Strait of Hormuz,” the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a statement on X/Twitter.
Iranian officials said the US attacks had killed 14 people and injured 78 across five provinces on Wednesday and Thursday, state media reported.
Fars said one US strike had hit a rail bridge used for trade with Russia and China, while Mehr news agency reported several explosions in the Bushehr province, which is home to a Russian-built nuclear power plant.
CENTCOM also released a statement justifying the strikes, saying, “The United States is holding Iran accountable for recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews freely navigating a vital international waterway.”
Sirens sound through Middle East: Strikes, interceptions in Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain
Iran’s army said in a statement released by state media that it had launched attacks at US Patriot systems with drones in Kuwait, an early warning site in Qatar (satellite antenna) and a fuel storage facility of the US army in Bahrain.
Kuwait said its armed forces had engaged with a cruise missile, three ballistic missiles and 10 drones in its airspace, and that one person had been injured from falling shrapnel.
Sirens also sounded in Jordan on Thursday after missiles launched from Iran were detected in Jordanian airspace, the state news agency reported. Eight of ten missiles, which were fired at Jordan’s Azraq military base, were intercepted.
No injuries or damage were reported, the news agency said.
END
HEZBOLLAH
SYRIA USA
Trump To Delist Syria From Terror Designation, Boasts Of Putting ‘Fantastic’ Sharaa In Power
Thursday, Jul 09, 2026 – 03:30 AM
US President Donald Trump lavished rare praise on Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa on Wednesday, calling him “fantastic” and “highly respected”, as the two leaders met on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey.
The meeting itself is a win for Sharaa, who was first introduced to Trump a little over a year ago in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, before finding himself in the Oval Office exchanging gifts with the US president by November. No Syrian leader – and certainly not one with Sharaa’s past as a US-designated terrorist – had been in the White House in decades.
Wednesday’s opportunity arose because the Turks have been at the helm of Sharaa’s rise to power since December 2024, as they are keen on a neighboring Syria that falls within their sphere of influence.
Trump’s swift embrace of Sharaa has been one of the standout foreign policy moves of the past year. “He’s done a really fantastic job as president. He’s unified the country in a very short period of time. I’d say like a year and a half, about a year and a half, and right from the beginning it was a real mess, very disjointed place, and he’s brought it together,” Trump told reporters as he sat next to Sharaa.
“He’s a strong person. He’s a great leader. He’s respected by everybody, including me, and we’re proud to have him,” he added.
The sentiments are in stark contrast to how Trump has spoken about Washington’s traditional allies, most of whom form the very defensive alliance that this summit is about. He has repeatedly berated the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, and Spain as being weak on defence and immigration, attacked Denmark for asserting its sovereignty over Greenland, and is currently in an open feud with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Since March, Trump has ramped up his rhetoric against those countries not joining his war on Iran.
Removing terror designation
Fourteen months ago, Sharaa, who previously had a $10m bounty on his head in the US, saw Trump announce the historic lifting of economic sanctions on Syria. The move was largely orchestrated by the Saudis, with much of the funding to rebuild Syria in a new image coming from Gulf nations.
What remains now is to get Syria off the US State Sponsors of Terrorism (SST) list and allow for investment in the country, which is the key agenda item for Sharaa.
“Any problems with that?” Trump said, as he turned to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. “I think we should. Yeah,” the president added. “We’re proud of the job he’s doing. Syria has become very stable.”
Trump was asked by a reporter about his highly contentious suggestion last month of having Syria take on the role of disarming Hezbollah in Lebanon. “They could help. We’ll find out. I think we’re making a lot of progress,” he said.
Sharaa had previously indicated this was not a feasible option, but his foreign minister, Asaad al-Shaibani, visited Lebanon last week and met with parliament speaker Nabih Berri, the leader of the Amal Movement and Hezbollah’s closest political ally.
A senior Lebanese official who met Shaibani during the visit told Middle East Eye that the trip was coordinated with the Lebanese side to send a clear message about Syria’s intentions.
“The visit was very much needed to reassure Lebanon and ease concerns about the possibility of a military intervention pushed by the United States,” the official said.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
ROBERT H….
Monaco Bomber Found Dead in Kiev, Shot 4 Times in Back of Head – Ukraine Intelligence Agent Arrested – The Last Refuge
One should not expect more from the Zelensky crowd.
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
“EXPLOSIVE DIARRHEA” PARASITIC INFECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE COUNTRY
by The Wellness Company
The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) is currently investigating a multistate outbreak of Cyclospora – a microscopic parasite that is sickening people across the country.
The exact cause of the outbreak is unknown, but history suggest fresh herbs, leafy greens, berries, and other produce could be – and often are – the culprit.
While the culprit remains unknown, what we do know is that the symptoms from the parasite aren’t pretty:
The parasite, cyclospora, spreads through raw produce and water contaminated with human feces – and it causes the intestinal illness cyclosporiasis, whose symptoms include cramps, nausea, fatigue, loss of appetite, low-grade fever and vomiting. The most commonly reported symptom is “watery diarrhea with frequent and sometimes explosive bowel movements”, according to the CDC.
According to the CDC’s count (which doesn’t update daily) there have been 145 cases in 17 states:
New York, Texas, Illinois and Michigan have been the hardest hit. Other states with reported cases include Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Massachusetts, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia and Wisconsin.
State-by-state data, which is newer and released more frequently than the CDC, shows the virus is spreading quickly:
Outside the dates of the CDC’s count, health officials in Michigan have been investigating an unusually high number of cases in a “large and growing outbreak”. More than 300 cases had been reported since 22 June as of Friday, in a state that typically only identifies about 50 cases of cyclosporiasis annually, according to its health department.
And since 1 May, New York has seen 107 cases. It typically records 500 to 700 cases statewide annually, according to the New York state health department. Health officials in New York City report that cases there roughly doubled from January through June compared to the same period in 2025, according to the New York Times.
The Treatment
While the cause of this outbreak is unknown, the good news is that we do know what the treatment is – trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole more commonly known as Bactrim.
Bactrim not only treats cyclospora infections but is the recommended treatment for a range of other GI and bacterial infections.
Don’t Wait Until You are Sick
We all know the time to stock up on medication – whether over the counter or prescription – is when you are healthy. Early intervention means early treatment and early treatment means a quicker path to recovery!
So how do you stock up on Bactrim?
That’s where The Wellness Company comes in!
This medical emergency kit contains an assortment of life-saving prescription medications – including Bactrim, as well as ivermectin, amoxicillin, Z-pak, and other medications. The Medical Emergency Kit includes a guidebook to aid in the safe use of these life-saving medications.
This kit is prescription-only – you can’t find it in any store or pharmacy. Simply fill out a short questionnaire after purchase and a trusted Wellness Company doctor will confirm your suitability and issue your prescription Medical Emergency Kit.
The Wellness Company Medical Emergency Kit includes:
- Amoxicillin-Clavulanate (generic Augmentin) 875/125 mg – 28 tablets
- Azithromycin (generic Z-Pak) 250 mg – 12 tablets
- Doxycycline Hyclate 100 mg – 60 capsules
- Metronidazole (generic Flagyl) 500 mg – 30 tablets
- Trimethoprim-Sulfamethoxazole (generic Bactrim) 800/160 mg – 28 tablets
- Ivermectin 12mg – 25 compounded capsules
- Fluconazole (generic Diflucan) 150 mg – 2 tablets
- Ondansetron (generic Zofran) 4mg – 6 tablets
- 1 Emergency Medication Guidebook written by the Chief Medical Board for safe use.
END
PUFFERFISH: EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
NOW ENTERED GREEK SHORES PLUS ITALY
(zerohedge)
Tourist Nightmare: Toxic “Bone-Cutting” Fish Invades Mediterranean Beaches
Thursday, Jul 09, 2026 – 02:45 AM
Tourists heading to the Mediterranean are being urged to watch out for an invasive species of toxic pufferfish that has spread across popular beach destinations in Greece and other coastal countries, according to the Daily Mail.
The silver-cheeked toadfish, originally native to the Indian Ocean, is believed to have entered the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal as rising sea temperatures expanded its range. Officials say the fish is now common in parts of Greece, including Rhodes, and has spread as far as Italy and Spain.
The species poses multiple hazards. It carries the potent neurotoxin tetrodotoxin, making its flesh and organs potentially fatal if consumed, and its powerful, beak-like teeth are capable of inflicting deep wounds. Greek authorities recently warned beachgoers to seek immediate medical attention after any bite, following reports of several encounters, including an elderly woman near Athens who required stitches after being attacked.
The Daily Mail writes that local fishermen say the fish have also become a costly nuisance, tearing through fishing nets and destroying catches. One fisherman described the species as devastating to marine life, warning that a bite could easily sever a finger.
In response, Greece has begun installing floating protective barriers at several beaches. About 2.5 kilometers of netting has already been deployed off the island of Evia, with another seven kilometers planned. The barriers were originally introduced to block jellyfish but are now also being used to keep the invasive fish away from swimmers.
Authorities are also trying to reduce the growing population through financial incentives. Cyprus launched a bounty program in 2024 that has removed more than 100 tons of the fish, while Greece recently introduced payments of about €5.33 ($6.25) per kilogram turned in by fishermen. Some regions are also receiving fuel subsidies to support the EU-backed removal effort.
Not everyone agrees with the eradication campaign, however. Some conservation advocates argue the fish should be managed rather than destroyed, while marine biologists have cautioned that reports of attacks may be overstated, saying the species generally bites only when threatened or handled.
end
GLOBAL ISSUES
How The Global Economy Became The World’s Most Dangerous Battlefield
Wednesday, Jul 08, 2026 – 11:25 PM
Authored by Madge Waggy,
The twenty-first century has introduced a form of confrontation that rarely appears on television screens, is seldom announced through diplomatic declarations, and almost never begins with the spectacle traditionally associated with war. Its progression is quieter, considerably more sophisticated, and arguably more consequential than many conventional conflicts because its primary objective is not the occupation of territory but the gradual acquisition of economic leverage capable of influencing political decisions, technological innovation, industrial production, and ultimately the everyday lives of billions of people. What follows is neither a dystopian prediction nor an exercise in geopolitical pessimism. It is an examination of structural transformations that are already unfolding across global markets and whose cumulative implications deserve substantially greater attention than they currently receive.
THE DAY THE WORLD FAILED TO NOTICE
Nobody remembers the exact day it began because, unlike conventional wars, there was no universally recognized starting point. No emergency broadcasts interrupted television programming, no fighter aircraft appeared over national capitals, and no governments announced the commencement of hostilities before the international community. Financial markets opened precisely on schedule, cargo vessels continued crossing strategic maritime corridors, supermarkets replenished their shelves overnight, and millions of people began another ordinary working day convinced that the machinery of globalization remained fundamentally unchanged. The remarkable normality of daily life concealed a far less reassuring reality: the international economy had quietly entered a period in which commercial interdependence was no longer regarded as an unquestionable guarantee of stability but increasingly as a potential source of strategic vulnerability.
This transformation did not emerge from a single geopolitical crisis nor from one spectacular economic collapse. Rather, it materialized through hundreds of seemingly isolated decisions that, when observed individually, appeared rational and almost insignificant. Governments introduced export controls on advanced semiconductor technologies. Central banks intensified discussions concerning monetary resilience. Multinational corporations reconsidered production networks that had remained virtually untouched for decades. Strategic investments migrated toward politically aligned economies, while industrial policies once dismissed as protectionist returned to the centre of national economic planning with unprecedented financial support. None of these developments resembled the opening stages of a traditional conflict. Collectively, however, they represented something far more profound: the gradual replacement of globalization’s defining principle—maximum efficiency—with an entirely different doctrine centred upon resilience, strategic autonomy, and geopolitical reliability.
The unsettling characteristic of this emerging reality lies precisely in its invisibility. Modern economic confrontation rarely demands public attention because it advances through mechanisms that remain largely incomprehensible outside specialist circles. Semiconductor export restrictions seldom provoke the emotional response generated by military mobilization, despite their capacity to influence industrial competitiveness for decades. Currency volatility receives only temporary media attention even though prolonged depreciation may erode national purchasing power more effectively than many conventional sanctions. Likewise, the interruption of critical mineral supply chains rarely dominates international headlines despite the fact that contemporary defence industries, renewable energy infrastructure, artificial intelligence hardware, telecommunications systems, and advanced manufacturing increasingly depend upon resources extracted and processed within a remarkably limited number of geographical regions.
“The defining battles of this century may never be fought for territory alone. They will increasingly determine who controls computation, energy, strategic minerals, financial confidence, industrial capacity, and the technological foundations upon which every modern economy ultimately depends.”
THE NEW MAP OF GLOBAL POWER
For much of the late twentieth century, economic strength was frequently interpreted through familiar indicators such as Gross Domestic Product, export performance, manufacturing output, or foreign direct investment. While these measurements remain indispensable, they no longer provide a sufficiently comprehensive understanding of contemporary geopolitical influence. Economic power has acquired additional dimensions that are considerably more complex, encompassing technological sovereignty, artificial intelligence infrastructure, access to critical minerals, cyber resilience, control over advanced semiconductor production, logistical redundancy, and the institutional capacity to withstand prolonged external pressure without compromising domestic stability.
The redistribution of influence is therefore occurring less through territorial expansion than through strategic concentration. Taiwan has become indispensable because of its extraordinary semiconductor fabrication capabilities. China commands exceptional influence across numerous critical mineral supply chains. The United States continues to dominate global financial architecture while simultaneously investing hundreds of billions of dollars in advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and strategic industrial renewal. The European Union, Japan, South Korea, and India are similarly accelerating efforts to reduce dependence upon vulnerable supply networks whose uninterrupted operation was once regarded as virtually guaranteed. This convergence of industrial policy across diverse political systems illustrates an increasingly shared conclusion: economic security can no longer be separated from national security.
WHEN EFFICIENCY BECAME A STRATEGIC LIABILITY
For almost four decades, economic efficiency occupied an almost unquestionable position within international policymaking. Governments encouraged multinational corporations to relocate production wherever labour costs, taxation, logistics, and regulatory conditions offered the greatest commercial advantage, while investors rewarded increasingly complex supply chains capable of reducing production costs to levels previously considered unattainable. The extraordinary success of this model generated an equally dangerous assumption: that globalization itself had become sufficiently mature to guarantee uninterrupted commercial cooperation regardless of political tensions. It was an assumption that appeared entirely rational until successive crises exposed how remarkably fragile a highly optimized world could become.
The first significant warning did not originate from financial markets but from the disruption of production itself. Temporary shortages of relatively inexpensive industrial components forced manufacturers worth billions of dollars to suspend operations, while the interruption of semiconductor deliveries delayed automobile production across continents and revealed how an apparently insignificant microchip had quietly become one of the most valuable strategic assets within the global economy. Similar vulnerabilities emerged throughout pharmaceutical manufacturing, energy infrastructure, agricultural commodities, and maritime logistics, demonstrating that the relentless pursuit of efficiency had gradually eliminated the redundancy upon which resilience ultimately depends.
Perhaps no lesson proved more consequential than the realization that dependence rarely becomes visible during periods of stability. Vulnerability reveals itself only when access is interrupted. A nation importing nearly all its advanced semiconductors experiences little concern while commercial routes remain open; however, once diplomatic tensions escalate or export restrictions emerge, decades of industrial policy may suddenly appear insufficient. The same principle applies to strategic minerals, pharmaceutical ingredients, energy resources, cyber infrastructure, and increasingly to artificial intelligence, whose computational requirements depend upon supply chains extending across multiple jurisdictions, each exposed to different political priorities and security considerations.
Rather than abandoning globalization altogether, governments have therefore begun redesigning it according to an entirely different philosophy. The objective is no longer to construct the cheapest supply chain imaginable but the most resilient one, even if resilience demands higher production costs, duplicated infrastructure, strategic stockpiles, or geographically diversified manufacturing. Commercial logic has consequently become inseparable from national security, transforming boardroom decisions into matters of geopolitical significance and redefining investment itself as an instrument capable of shaping international influence for decades to come.
THE PRICE OF DEPENDENCE
For decades, economic dependence was widely interpreted as an inevitable consequence of globalization rather than a strategic concern requiring immediate political attention. International trade expanded with remarkable speed, production migrated toward regions capable of manufacturing at lower costs, and governments enthusiastically embraced the assumption that deep commercial integration would gradually discourage geopolitical confrontation. Interdependence was celebrated as a stabilizing force capable of reducing the likelihood of conflict by making prosperity mutually beneficial. Few policymakers questioned whether an economic system optimized almost exclusively for efficiency could remain equally resilient when confronted by political rivalry, technological restrictions, or prolonged geopolitical uncertainty.
That confidence has gradually begun to erode. The question confronting governments today is no longer whether globalization generated extraordinary wealth—it unquestionably did—but whether the extraordinary concentration of critical industries has unintentionally transferred unprecedented leverage into remarkably few hands. A modern economy can continue functioning despite fluctuations in consumer demand, temporary currency depreciation, or cyclical recessions. It becomes considerably more vulnerable, however, when access to indispensable technologies, strategic minerals, or essential manufacturing components depends almost entirely upon decisions made beyond its own political jurisdiction. At that moment, commercial dependence quietly evolves into strategic exposure, and market efficiency becomes inseparable from national security.
The transformation is particularly evident in industries that remained virtually invisible to public attention until recent years. Advanced semiconductors represent one of the most striking examples. Although physically smaller than a postage stamp, they constitute the computational foundation of contemporary civilization, enabling everything from civilian telecommunications and cloud computing to medical diagnostics, aerospace engineering, autonomous systems, advanced defence platforms, and artificial intelligence. Their significance extends far beyond commercial profitability because every technological breakthrough increasingly depends upon computational performance that only a limited number of highly specialized manufacturing facilities currently possess.
This concentration has fundamentally altered international economic calculations. Rather than competing exclusively for market share, nations are now competing for continuity itself. The objective is no longer simply to manufacture more efficiently than competitors but to ensure uninterrupted access to technologies without which future industrial development becomes increasingly constrained. Such priorities explain why semiconductor fabrication plants are now receiving levels of governmental support that only a generation ago would have been associated with military infrastructure or national energy systems. The competition surrounding microelectronics has therefore become less about commercial rivalry than about preserving long-term technological autonomy within an increasingly uncertain international environment.
THE RISE OF STRATEGIC RESOURCES
History has repeatedly demonstrated that every era of economic development elevates particular resources to extraordinary strategic importance. Coal fueled the Industrial Revolution, oil reshaped twentieth-century geopolitics, and natural gas emerged as a decisive component of modern energy security. The contemporary economy, however, increasingly revolves around an entirely different category of materials whose names rarely appear outside scientific journals or specialized industrial reports. Lithium, cobalt, graphite, gallium, germanium, neodymium, dysprosium, and dozens of additional critical minerals have quietly become indispensable foundations of the digital economy, renewable energy technologies, precision manufacturing, satellite communications, electric mobility, and advanced military systems.
What distinguishes these resources is not merely their industrial utility but the extraordinary concentration of their extraction, refinement, and processing. While many countries possess geological reserves, considerably fewer have developed the sophisticated industrial ecosystems necessary to transform raw materials into components suitable for high-performance manufacturing. Consequently, geopolitical influence increasingly derives not only from resource ownership but from technological expertise, refining capacity, logistical infrastructure, environmental regulation, and long-term investment strategies that collectively determine who ultimately controls access to these indispensable materials.
This evolution has dramatically expanded the definition of national resilience. Economic security can no longer be evaluated solely through conventional indicators such as fiscal stability or export performance. It must also encompass access to strategic commodities whose absence could compromise entire industrial sectors within remarkably short periods. The implications extend beyond manufacturing itself. Renewable energy deployment depends upon them. Artificial intelligence hardware requires them. Aerospace engineering incorporates them. Defence industries cannot operate without them. Even the smartphones carried by billions of individuals represent extraordinarily complex assemblies whose production depends upon intricate international supply networks extending across multiple continents.
Such realities have encouraged governments to reconsider assumptions that remained largely unquestioned throughout the previous era of globalization. Long-term resource agreements are becoming increasingly significant. Domestic mining projects once considered economically unattractive are being reassessed through the lens of strategic resilience. Recycling technologies are attracting unprecedented investment, while international partnerships increasingly prioritize secure access to critical materials alongside more traditional diplomatic objectives. These developments collectively illustrate a broader transition in which industrial policy, environmental considerations, technological innovation, and geopolitical strategy have become inseparably interconnected.
THE NEW CURRENCY OF INFLUENCE
Power within the international economy has always extended beyond monetary wealth alone. Confidence, credibility, institutional stability, and financial predictability have historically proved equally decisive in determining which nations attract investment, influence capital allocation, and shape international markets. Nevertheless, recent years have introduced an additional dimension that is redefining monetary influence itself. Financial infrastructure has gradually evolved from a neutral facilitator of commerce into a strategic asset capable of amplifying geopolitical leverage without requiring conventional military superiority.
International payment systems, reserve currencies, sovereign bond markets, and cross-border capital flows collectively constitute an architecture whose stability depends as much upon confidence as upon regulation. Once confidence begins to weaken, adjustments that initially appear modest can generate cascading consequences across investment behaviour, exchange rates, borrowing costs, insurance markets, and international trade. For this reason, contemporary financial competition increasingly focuses not merely upon attracting capital but upon preserving institutional credibility during periods characterized by geopolitical uncertainty and accelerating technological transformation.
The emergence of digital financial technologies has further intensified this competition. Central bank digital currencies, algorithmic trading systems, artificial intelligence applied to financial modelling, and increasingly sophisticated cybersecurity capabilities are reshaping the operational landscape of international finance at extraordinary speed. What once required weeks of diplomatic negotiation or prolonged commercial restructuring can now unfold through automated transactions executed within milliseconds across interconnected global markets. Financial influence has consequently become faster, more adaptive, and considerably more complex than at any previous moment in economic history.
Perhaps the most profound consequence of this transformation is psychological rather than technological. Markets rarely react exclusively to measurable economic variables; they respond equally to expectations, confidence, institutional transparency, and perceived resilience. Economic confrontation therefore unfolds simultaneously within factories, laboratories, shipping corridors, central banks, government ministries, investment funds, and the collective expectations of millions of economic actors whose decisions continuously reshape the global distribution of capital. In that respect, the modern battlefield extends far beyond physical infrastructure. It exists wherever confidence itself becomes a strategic resource capable of determining who prospers, who adapts, and who ultimately defines the economic architecture of the decades ahead.
THE ARCHITECTURE OF THE NEXT GLOBAL ORDER
The accelerating redistribution of economic influence suggests that the international system is no longer moving toward a simple transition of power from one dominant nation to another. Instead, it is evolving into something considerably more intricate—a fragmented landscape where influence is dispersed across technology, finance, industrial capacity, strategic resources, scientific innovation, demographic resilience, and institutional credibility. Such an environment rewards adaptability rather than absolute dominance, encouraging governments to reconsider assumptions that remained largely uncontested throughout the first decades of globalization.
Perhaps the most profound misconception surrounding contemporary international competition is the belief that the defining struggle of this century will ultimately be decided through military superiority alone. Military capability undoubtedly remains an indispensable component of national security, yet modern prosperity depends upon an ecosystem far broader than conventional defence. Nations increasingly compete to attract scientific talent, dominate artificial intelligence, secure uninterrupted energy supplies, establish leadership in quantum computing, expand advanced manufacturing, protect digital infrastructure, and preserve the confidence of international investors whose decisions can redirect trillions of dollars with remarkable speed. In many respects, the decisive contest has already shifted from the battlefield to the laboratory, from naval fleets to semiconductor fabrication facilities, and from territorial occupation to technological leadership.
This transition is quietly redefining the very meaning of sovereignty. Throughout much of modern history, independence implied the ability to defend territorial borders and maintain political authority within them. Today, sovereignty has acquired additional dimensions that extend far beyond geography. A nation incapable of producing advanced technologies, securing strategic resources, protecting digital infrastructure, or maintaining resilient supply chains may possess complete political independence while remaining economically vulnerable to decisions taken thousands of kilometres beyond its borders. The paradox is striking: globalization connected the world more comprehensively than at any previous moment in history, yet that same interconnectedness has simultaneously exposed how fragile excessive dependence can become once political priorities begin to diverge.
Artificial intelligence represents perhaps the clearest illustration of this transformation. Although frequently discussed through the lens of automation or consumer technology, its strategic significance extends considerably further. Advanced computational systems are rapidly becoming indispensable across pharmaceutical research, financial modelling, aerospace engineering, precision agriculture, logistics optimization, cybersecurity, energy management, and national defence. Consequently, the competition surrounding AI is not merely about creating more sophisticated algorithms; it concerns the ability to shape the productive capacity of entire economies for decades to come. Access to computational infrastructure, specialized semiconductors, high-quality datasets, and scientific expertise is gradually emerging as a defining determinant of long-term competitiveness, placing innovation at the centre of international influence in ways unimaginable only a generation ago.
Equally significant is the growing realization that resilience can no longer be measured exclusively through economic expansion. A rapidly growing economy that depends excessively upon vulnerable supply networks may prove considerably less secure than a slower-growing economy capable of maintaining industrial continuity during periods of external disruption. This subtle but fundamental shift has encouraged policymakers to evaluate prosperity through a broader framework incorporating redundancy, diversification, technological autonomy, institutional stability, environmental sustainability, and the capacity to absorb unforeseen shocks without compromising long-term development. Efficiency remains valuable, yet resilience has become indispensable.
The implications extend beyond governments and multinational corporations. Households, entrepreneurs, universities, financial institutions, and local industries increasingly operate within an international environment where decisions taken in distant capitals reverberate across employment markets, investment strategies, inflation dynamics, educational priorities, and technological development. Economic confrontation therefore ceases to be an abstract discussion confined to diplomatic summits or academic journals. It gradually becomes embedded within everyday life, influencing opportunities, expectations, purchasing power, business confidence, and even the aspirations of younger generations entering labour markets shaped by technological acceleration and geopolitical uncertainty.
A FUTURE WRITTEN IN BALANCE RATHER THAN DOMINANCE
The decades ahead are unlikely to be defined by the complete triumph of any single economic model or geopolitical coalition. Rather, they will be characterized by a continuous process of adaptation in which cooperation and competition coexist within an increasingly interconnected yet politically fragmented international system. Some supply chains will continue diversifying. New technological alliances will emerge while others gradually dissolve. Strategic industries will relocate closer to trusted partners, financial institutions will evolve alongside digital innovation, and governments will continue searching for equilibrium between economic openness and national resilience. Change, rather than stability, has become the defining constant of the global economy.
Whether this transformation ultimately strengthens or weakens international prosperity will depend less upon the intensity of competition than upon the wisdom with which that competition is managed. History demonstrates that rivalry has often stimulated extraordinary innovation, scientific progress, and economic development. It also demonstrates, however, that excessive fragmentation, prolonged mistrust, and uncontrolled protectionism possess the capacity to undermine the very prosperity they seek to defend. The challenge confronting policymakers therefore extends beyond securing competitive advantage; it requires preserving sufficient international cooperation to ensure that strategic resilience does not gradually evolve into systemic isolation.
Perhaps that is the defining lesson emerging from the silent transformation currently reshaping the global economy. The most consequential conflicts of the twenty-first century may never be remembered for decisive military victories or dramatic territorial conquests. They may instead be remembered for quieter decisions taken inside research laboratories, central banks, industrial ministries, corporate boardrooms, data centres, and manufacturing facilities—places where the future balance of economic influence is already being negotiated every single day.
The world often associates conflict with explosions, collapsing buildings, and the unmistakable imagery of conventional warfare. Yet history may ultimately conclude that one of the greatest redistributions of power occurred without those familiar symbols. It unfolded through algorithms rather than artillery, through investment rather than invasion, through innovation rather than occupation, and through the relentless pursuit of technological and economic advantage in a world where influence increasingly belongs not to those who possess the largest territories, but to those capable of shaping the systems upon which everyone else depends.
In that sense, the shadow conflict redefining the world order has never truly been hidden. It has simply been unfolding in places where few people thought to look.
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Qatari AIR FORCE One! It was a disaster from the start & NO POTUS must fly on that plane, I trust QATAR as far as I can spit! Thank you POTUS Trump for going back to USA’s Air Force ONE! ‘The only way
to do that is by having that plane made in the United States and carrying the equipment that is provided by the United States, so that we can assure that the president is not only secure, but safe’…
No doubt there are huge security concerns as to QATAR and also Iran’s role in potentially subverting that plane!
Good move POTUS Trump! I agree with Panetta.
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
END
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
The Choice To Go Up Or Down The Escalation Ladder Now Lies With Iran
Thursday, Jul 09, 2026 – 10:00 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
“It ain’t over till it’s over, but…”
The US hit Iran for a second night along Hormuz, in southern cities, near a nuclear site, and a railway bridge in the northwest. The message from VP Vance was to stop striking ships in Hormuz or get hit back harder. From Trump, it was that Iran are “liars” and “scum” and the MOU is “over,” repeating threats to reimpose the US blockade of Iranian oil –showing why few (save China) were keen to buy it with a temporary sanctions waiver that lapsed before shipments arrived — and to hit electricity and desalination plants and/or take Kharg Island, it’s key oil facility.
Even Axios, purveyor of ‘world peace(fire)’ headlines, is reporting the US is preparing for an extended confrontation –from 1-2 days to a month– and that the ‘Battle of Hormuz’ may be about to begin.
Trump did add negotiators could keep talking if they wanted to; and on Air Force One (the old one: that just gifted by Qatar was left in the UK, speaking to a security problem) he stated Iranian officials “called a little while ago. They want to make a deal so badly.”
So, the immediate choice to go up or down the escalation ladder lies with Iran. If Tehran deescalates, they cede control of Hormuz. If they escalate, their options are to hit Hormuz more – triggering more US counter strikes; or GCC energy – triggering a larger war; to use (battered) proxies like Hezbollah – triggering wider war; or perhaps to rush for a nuclear weapon – which would mean far worse war. The New York Times reports Iran’s president and foreign minister were physically attacked this week by supporters of a hard-line faction that vehemently opposes any deal with the US: it remains to be seen if the streets, IRGC, clerics, or politicians will decide what happens next – but both the politicians and the IRGC benefit from talks going on and oil flowing.
The US would also have to decide if it can afford to cede Hormuz or will fight to keep it open when the SPR is seen near a tank bottom– was this discussed at the NATO summit, perhaps?
A tell for stepped up military statecraft would be a matching step-up in economic statecraft. Note the White House’s launch of ‘Freedom Fuel’ gas stations offering lower prices (via lower profit margins; or, at $3.67 a gallon, possible federal subsidies). If that scheme expands past an initial 25 sites it suggests more disruption in Hormuz ahead. However, that’s just a stepping stone to the NAPHTHA closed-loop energy system we’ve flagged the US might need to consider.
There are also longer term moves to avoid Hormuz. The UAE’s pipeline to Fujairah is underway; the Saudis may expand their East-West Red Sea pipeline by 2m barrels per day, allowing themselves and other GCC states to benefit; and Riyadh is exploring an IMEC route through Syria and Turkey – as Trump informed Congress of his intent to remove Syria from the state sponsor of terror list and was nice to Erdogan at the Ankara NATO summit; and following a state visit to Damascus by Macron and Erdogan literally giving the EU’s Von der Leyen and Costa guns.
For now, we stick with our base case that Hormuz tension blows over rather than blowing up. However, the odds of the latter happening sooner, rather than post-midterms as expected, have increased.
In energy markets, oil is up, but not hugely, with Brent at $79: but crack spreads are near record highs. Yes, lots of oil just flooded out of Hormuz, but global refineries already couldn’t process the backlog easily – add a new war there and things look far worse.
Crack spreads have also been driven by Russia banning exports of diesel until end-July in response to the devastating strikes against its oil refineries by Ukrainian drones: these are causing fuel shortages and have turned Russia from a net exporter to a net importer of refined products.
At the NATO summit — besides Trump threatening Spain with a trade boycott for being peaceniks — there was US backing for Ukraine‘s strikes deep into Russia and against energy facilities; Ukraine was also given permission to manufacture Patriot missiles itself to boost its air defences. Expect a lot more damage to Russian energy ahead, unless Russia comes to the table.
In related geoeconomic developments, the FT reports Trump-backed US rare earth mines are selling to Japan and South Korea – then again, South Korea and Japan might build US weapons and navy vessels in the near future.
In Europe, a leaked report has revealed France is seeking to widen Brussels’ Made-in-Europe policy: Paris wants such measures extended to shipbuilding and trains. Buy local schemes are even more effective economic statecraft than tariffs. The FT also carries an op-ed from former Italian PM Letta arguing ‘Europe must have the financial power to match its economic heft,’ and the continent’s savings should be used to invest in its own future, not someone else’s. Are we also going to see capital controls for the beating heart of the ‘liberal world order’?
Yet Rutte’s ‘Made in NATO’ weapons push collides with EU’s ‘Buy European’ drive, as Politico puts it, where “The NATO chief wants to build the transatlantic military industrial complex, but the EU is backing its own companies.” Who will win that battle given Europe still needs LNG, which the US has and where Turkey may soon play a key role too, and given the US holds the cards on tech and, relatively, on rare earths?
Spain, while making the peace sign, is also pushing the European Commission to borrow an additional €850bn per year on behalf of EU countries to get lower yields – which may not get a ‘Made in Europe’ response from northern member states. That’s as the UK government is warned by the OBR that another £120 of tax hikes are needed as debt is on an unsustainable trajectory.
Political news matches this geopolitical and geoeconomic drama: the Democratic Party Maine Senate candidate Platner has dropped out over allegations of sexual assault (not his Nazi tattoo); the Democratic Governor of Kentucky has, in so many words, requested that Republican Senator McConnell show that he’s still with us, when rumour is that he isn’t; and in the UK, Reform UK’s Farage is likely to contest a 6 August by-election solely against a man who wears a dustbin on his head, with the key policy pledge of building “at least one affordable home.”
Lastly, and deliberately last, the Fed minutes headline was that ‘a few’ members saw the case for a June hike. And?
- First, it may not be long until we don’t get much information about what the Fed is thinking under the Warsh Doctrine.
- Second, backwards-looking reports can’t keep up with the speed and scale of geopolitical developments.
- Third, the economic models of those who write those reports can’t predict geopolitical outcomes.
As this Global Daily’s title says, “It ain’t over till it’s over, but…” – and that covers the usefulness of central-bank ‘he said, she said’ just as much as it does the US-Iran ‘he said, he said’ MoU.
END
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS//ENERGY COMMENTARIES
QATAR/LNG
Qatar Halts Push To Ramp Up LNG Production After Hormuz Tanker Strikes
Thursday, Jul 09, 2026 – 10:50 AM
Less than a month after Reuters reported that QatarEnergy was ready to resume LNG production at its Ras Laffan LNG plant “very quickly” and expected to reach within a month full output of facilities unaffected by Iranian strikes, this morning Bloomberg reports that Qatar is pausing efforts to rapidly revive production at the world’s largest LNG facility, after an attack on one of its tankers in the Strait of Hormuz raised fears that transit through the crucial waterway is still too risky.
According to the report, QatarEnergy officials held a series of meetings following the attack on Tuesday, with CEO Saad Al-Kaabi deciding to cease plans to increase output at the Ras Laffan complex. Operations will be kept at a minimum for safety reasons and the number of vessels scheduled to dock at the plant in the coming days will be reduced/
The pause is one of the most high-profile fallouts to date of the heightened tensions this week with attacks on a number of ships near Hormuz and the US striking Iran for two consecutive days. President Trump on Wednesday even raised the prospect of a return to all-out war, a worst-case scenario for energy producers in the region who were gradually recovering from the impact of the conflict.
Delaying the Ras Laffan’s ramp-up threatens to further tighten the global gas market, risking more intense competition between Asia and Europe for spare supply as they restock for the coming winter. According to analyst calculations, Europe is badly behind in its winter stockpiling, and absent new sources, it risks a major price surge should the European winter be cold. It also explains why Asian LNG spot prices are more than 80% higher than pre-war levels, highlighting anxiety surrounding the restart of Qatar, which supplied about a fifth of the world’s LNG last year.
According to Bloomberg, since the US and Iran signed an interim peace deal in June, Qatar had been pushing ahead with plans to revive most of its LNG production within two months. It has been running some of Ras Laffan’s production trains at reduced capacity to be ready for a quickly ramp-up when the time was right. That’s likely to continue as the company still aims to boost exports as fast as possible following the safe opening of Hormuz.
As part of its restart prep, Qatar had increased loadings and brought back empty tankers to take on more fuel. Eleven empty LNG vessels are currently sitting outside Ras Laffan, according to ship-tracking data. But those efforts will now be temporarily paused as the world’s second-largest LNG exporter waits for tensions to ease.
The giant facility had been largely shut since early March after an Iranian drone attack, and about 17% of the plant’s production capacity was damaged in a separate missile strike weeks later. As we reported at the time, repairs to that part of the project is estimated to take at least three years.
Last week, QatarEnergy extended force majeure notices on LNG supply for some of its Asian customers to August, causing some uncertainty in the market about when the company would restart production, Bloomberg reported. In Europe, Italian utility Edison SpA said the clause will now be in place until early September for its imports.
The confusion about Qatar’s timelines heightened further after the country said its Al Rekayyat LNG tanker was struck by Iran on Tuesday. The ship was disabled, with the crew abandoning it shortly after, Bloomberg reported. This was the first time a Qatari LNG tanker was targeted since the war in Iran began in late February.
Two other vessels were also attacked, and Iran has fired projectiles on some Gulf countries as it came under attack from the US this week. The tensions brought maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill on Thursday.
END
“Deepening Dark Trend” Emerges On Hormuz As Ship Traffic Slows
Thursday, Jul 09, 2026 – 12:40 PM
The US military has struck Iranian targets for a second straight day, while Tehran has responded with ballistic missile and drone attacks targeting Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and even faraway Jordan. While our overnight wrap focused on the latest war developments, the focus here is what energy traders are watching most closely: vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Bloomberg cites new shipping data showing that the Hormuz chokepoint slowed to a near standstill on Thursday.
More color from the report:
Among larger vessels, only a US-sanctioned supertanker heading out of the Persian Gulf was seen in the strait, alongside an Iranian-flagged container ship. It’s possible that some vessels may be crossing with their transponders turned off, however.
The slowdown marks a sharp reversal from the partial recovery that followed the mid-June interim US-Iran peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Commodity-vessel transits averaged 34 a day over the past three weeks and peaked at 59 on June 24, according to Kpler data. That compares with just 14 crossings Wednesday, the lowest since the deal and near wartime levels.
Maritime research firm Windward also commented on the Hormuz slowdown:
Earlier, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy Command stated that it has taken control of managing security and vessel routing through the Hormuz chokepoint.
Here’s the translated statement:
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy Command
In the name of God, the Most Compassionate, the Most Merciful.
Peace be upon the insightful and honorable nation, whose astonishing presence and tens-of-millions-strong funeral processions for their martyred leader in Iran and Iraq showed that this is the era of the end of the bullying of powers, and the century of the triumph of nations’ will.
And peace be upon the brave warriors of Islam, who, with their crushing response to the aggressions of the child-killing American army, proved that the outcome of battle is determined not by the abundance of weapons, but by the power of faith.
These warriors, by stabilizing management of the Strait of Hormuz, establishing its security over the past two weeks, and gradually reopening it, have increased passage capacity to about 50% of prewar traffic. They are also increasing the transit capacity of vessels that, while observing the security regulations with discipline, obtain permission from the IRGC Navy to pass through the routes designated by the Islamic Republic.
Once again, we declare that foreigners have no stake in this land or in the Strait of Hormuz. The adventurism of the terrorist American army and its interference in determining traffic routes will not only bring our crushing response, but will also seriously disrupt the process of gradual reopening and seriously endanger the interests of countries that benefit from the Strait of Hormuz.
On Tuesday, following three separate Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, the Joint Maritime Information Center raised the threat level of the Hormuz chokepoint to “severe.”
The unwinding of diplomatic efforts will complicate the normalization process of reopening the Hormuz.
Goldman analyst Chris Hussey commented on this:
Hormuz recovery stalls. Oil has rebounded as renewed fighting around the Strait of Hormuz has interrupted the post-reopening recovery in Persian Gulf flows, while refined products markets remain even tighter than crude, writes Yulia Grigsby in “Oil Tracker: Negative Supply News From Gulf and Russia.” Persian Gulf oil flows initially recovered to above 80% of pre-war levels after reopening, but recent tanker attacks pushed them back to the low-70% range, with exports through Hormuz falling from about 10 mb/d to 8.3 mb/d on a 7-day average basis. This supports our view that the key constraint is now Iran’s willingness to allow flows, not tanker capacity.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Yes 18% · No 83%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
Brent crude futures were trading around $79 a barrel early Thursday, while WTI hovered near $74, signaling that traders were pricing in renewed geopolitical war risk premium as Hormuz vessel traffic slowed and the US-Iran conflict flared up.
END
NATURAL GAS/EUROPEAN MAJOR PROBLEM
EU Natural Gas: Running Out of Time
by Asymmetric Research
Thursday, Jul 09, 2026 – 12:16
TTF has rebounded by 20% over the past two weeks. Importantly, around half of that move began before the recent resumption of hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz, including the attack on an LNG carrier. The market is finally beginning to focus on the storage issue we have been flagging since our March deep dive, yet politicians remain in denial. Injections have now been noticeably weak for three weeks running, and withdrawals are higher on continuous heatwaves. We remain long TTF futures.
Forecasters are now converging on our numbers. The IEA has followed WoodMac in revising its projections towards what we have been saying for months: peak EU storage this winter will likely mark a 15-year low of around 75% in November, at the EU’s flexed lower target. European to Asian price spreads are also not incentivising refill, further weighing on any resolve. Our revised storage forecasts as things stand are shown below.
European Natural Gas Storage Levels and Our 2026E Forecasts, As Things Stand (% full)
Source: GIE AGSI. 2026E = Asymmetric Research estimates
Downside Risks to the 75% Peak
The 75% forecast implicitly assumes that the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes to June levels as early as next week, and that Qatar does not extend its force majeure beyond the start of September. Given the renewal of Iranian attacks on US bases in Qatar, the risk on both counts has edged up. The renewed cessation of LNG shipments now only adds to the cumulative shortfall.
Even the Regulator Is Now on the Record
ACER, drawing on ENTSOG’s Summer Supply Outlook 2026, has warned that the EU will need significantly higher LNG imports this summer to refill storage ahead of winter. Its guidance to governments, in one line: ACER is telling Member States to closely monitor their storage-filling trajectories in the months ahead and to actively manage the risks in compliance with the Gas Storage Regulation. That is about as close as a European regulator gets to sounding the alarm.
None of this is new to our readers. We have written extensively about this setup in our previous notes. What has changed is that the IEA, WoodMac and now ACER are aligning with our view and numbers. Complacency tends to disappear rapidly once the data becomes undeniable, as it did in 2021/22, and the injection data is becoming harder to explain away with each passing week.
Remember What Comes Next: Russian Gas Fully Phases Out in 2027
As we discussed in detail in our March report, under the EU phase-out regulation long-term Russian LNG contracts are prohibited from January 2027, and long-term pipeline contracts, the majority of remaining volumes, are phased out by September to November 2027. Europe therefore enters next year needing to replace depleted storage, into what we already view as a tight 2027 balance. That is the structural backdrop against which this summer’s injection shortfall should be judged.
Demand Destruction Would Be Less Pronounced This Time
A word on what happens if prices do spike. In the last crisis, the release valve was demand destruction: by the end of 2025, EU gas demand had fallen by approximately 60Bcm compared to 2021 levels, a 16% reduction. With European gas consumption having already reset at these lower levels, any price spike from here will likely have a less pronounced impact on consumption, and prices could remain elevated for longer periods. The buffer that eventually broke the 2022 price spiral is simply smaller this time.
European Gas Demand and Demand Destruction Since 2021
Source: Asymmetric Research, ENTSO-G, national TSOs and market operators
Update (Bloomberg, today): Qatar has reportedly paused its plans to rapidly ramp up LNG production following that attack on one of its tankers, indeed adding further downside risk to our already bearish storage forecast.
Something Has to Give on the TTF Price, and Soon
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUE
CANADA
took a decade but Canada just admited that Trudeau’s climate agenda was a hoax
(Moran/LibertyNation)
Canada Just Admitted Justin Trudeau’s Climate Agenda Was A Scam
Thursday, Jul 09, 2026 – 08:40 AM
Authored by Andrew Moran via LibertyNation.com,
Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau gave Canada a lost decade. A key contributor to the country’s stagnation was the Liberal government’s obsession with climate change and its ushering in of green energy policies that were disastrous for a nation rich in natural resources. To make Canada great again, Prime Minister Mark Carney is abandoning climate alarmism and embracing what made the country wealthy in the first place: crude oil.
Canada Loves Oil Again
On June 30, the prime minister published a 17-minute YouTube video, focused exclusively on his predecessor’s climate agenda. He used words like “expensive” and “divisive” to describe Trudeau’s environmental endeavors. Carney essentially admitted that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives were right.
For right-wing political pundits, this was a rare win for the incumbent. Indeed, in a bid to resuscitate the ailing Canadian economy, Carney is trying to make the country fall back in love with fossil fuels – and appease Alberta – despite years of climate doomerism.
Ottawa announced earlier this month a new West Coast pipeline that will ship up to one million barrels of crude oil per day from Alberta to Asian markets. The federal government gave its blessing to a new west-east crude oil pipeline that will run from Alberta to Ontario. This comes as the Carney Liberals begin to expand liquefied natural gas exports, scrap the consumer carbon tax, and remove the cap on the oil and gas sector’s pollution levels.
Carney already accepted that Canada’s emissions will be higher in the coming years, a fact that was inevitable. Various models currently indicate that the Great White North has been missing its emissions targets, even before the current government’s reforms. Canada lags behind other G7 countries in emissions reductions, and even the United States is outperforming its northern neighbor.
“The certainties of the world of 2015 are long gone. Our neighborhood hasn’t been this hostile since Canada was founded,” the prime minister said. “The world hasn’t been this unstable geopolitically since the end of the Second World War.”
Of course, skepticism is warranted because Carney has spent much of his tenure just talking with his elbows up. From housing to pipelines, it has been all talk and no action. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany surprisingly sprang into action and constructed Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRUs) to import seaborne liquefied natural gas in fewer than 200 days.
The prime minister has been in office for 15 months with nothing to show for it. Still, capital might be optimistic about Canadian energy moving forward, having been hesitant to invest in various projects across the country over the last 11 years.
What About America?
America’s decision last week not to renew the USMCA could be a major blow to the Canadian economy. The post-NAFTA trade deal will now be subject to annual reviews as the United States raises grievances over production quotas, supply management, rules of origin, and other provisions.
Despite Ottawa’s efforts to diversify its trade by importing more students from India and exporting more oil to Asia, the country still needs its southern neighbor. More than 90 percent of its energy is shipped to the United States, making it an extremely difficult market to replace, even if Canada desires to become an energy superpower.
If the numbers are accurate, the United States has about 300 billion barrels of heavy crude sitting in its backyard (Venezuela). It also produces about 14 million barrels of oil per day. The current administration is a close ally of the United Arab Emirates, which withdrew from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and is seeking to expand crude production. Add in control of the Strait of Malacca, and the United States is building upon its reputation as an energy superpower.
To be fair, Carney is situated between an igloo and Trumpism. He has to appease the White House (and appear tough to older Canadian voters who blame President Trump for everything) while also finding economic opportunities elsewhere. It is not an easy task.
Desperate Times, Desperate Measures
Trillions of dollars worldwide have been invested in green energy. And yet, every crisis over the last several years has proven these vanity projects to be entirely unreliable. Countries keep turning to crude oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear power to meet their energy needs. The United States realized it. Europe is starting to come around. Asia always knew it. Canada was the last nation to finally understand that oil and gas are the answer, not a windmill.
END
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
CANADA
trouble if they do this;
(Harper)
Canada Considered Suing Citizens Over “False And Misleading” Social Media Posts
Wednesday, Jul 08, 2026 – 08:55 PM
Authored by Cindy Harper via ReclaimTheNet.org,
The Canadian government drew up a plan to take individual citizens to court over what they post online. That plan sat inside a 35-page internal memo from the Department of Industry, most of it blacked out before the public could see it.
Blacklock’s Reporter pried the document loose through an Access to Information request. Dated March 31 and titled “Misinformation And Disinformation Strategy,” it belongs to the department run by Minister Melanie Joly, known as ISED. The memo weighs “legal action” against people who post what the government calls “false and misleading information” on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.
What kind of legal action? The redactions hide that. What survives the black ink is the logic. “This strategy seeks to uphold the integrity of and public trust in government information,” the memo says. The department is appointing itself guardian of its own reputation, with lawsuits as one available tool.
Here is who would decide. ISED itself would judge whether a post is “factually incorrect, misleading or out of context.” The same department that dislikes a post gets to rule on whether the post is true. No court makes that call first and no independent reviewer checks the work. The government writes the definition of misinformation and then enforces it against the people it defines.
The memo describes any punishment as “proportionate and subject to senior level approval.” That language reassures no one. Proportion gets measured by the same officials pushing the complaint, and senior approval means a manager signs off, not a judge.
Officials already watch. Managers “already monitor the department’s official social media channels and media outlets on a daily basis for comments and recurring inaccuracies,” the memo says. The strategy would push that surveillance from reaction toward “prevention and early detection,” catching disfavored speech earlier in its life.
The plan has drawn sharp opposition reaction. Conservative MP Leslyn Lewis, in a post on X, asked who defines misinformation in the first place: “Will government become the arbiter of truth? That is a dangerous path for a free society.” Conservative MP Roman Baber argued the direction of fear runs the wrong way, writing that government “should fear citizens at the free press and the ballot box,” and that “the reverse, citizens fearing government, gives rise to authoritarianism.”
The chilling effect writes itself. A citizen who knows a federal department is reading posts, grading them for accuracy, and holding a lawsuit in reserve thinks twice before typing. The threat does the work a courtroom never has to.
The government’s own files admit the problem. Its research found Canadians feel capable of spotting fake news and do not want Ottawa “declaring what is true or not.” The memo concedes that answering misinformation can amplify it, and that going after individuals risks “further backlash.” The department understood the public would object and mapped the plan anyway.
Compare the tune from four years back. This same Liberal government declared that “the rights and freedoms that individuals have offline must also be protected online.” That promise reads differently next to a memo about suing people for their posts. It also sits oddly against the government’s own recent history: Canada repealed Section 181 of the Criminal Code, the “false news” offence, in 2019, after the Supreme Court found the provision violated freedom of expression.
The non-profit Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms has since begun asking publicly whether any Canadians have already received notices from the federal government demanding they take down online posts.
Ottawa has not explained how the monitoring runs, how often lawsuits were floated, or what a post must do to land on the department’s radar. The memo sets no threshold. It names no outside check. It leaves a federal department free to decide which citizens spoke falsely and what the price should be.
A government sure of its facts answers speech with more speech. This one drafted a plan to answer speech with lawyers.
END
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1437 UP 0.0017
USA/ YEN 162.33 DOWN 0.214 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!!
GBP/USA 1.3418 UP 0.0025 OR 25 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4181 UP 0.0013 //CDN DOLLAR DOWN 13 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 65.71 PTS OR 1.65%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 244.46 PTS OR 1.01%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.37%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 244.46 PTS OR 1.01%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 65.71 PTS OR 1.65%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.37%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 1036.95 PTS OR 1.45%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4109.20
silver:$58.27
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 46.88 PLUS 2 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 76.11 ROUBLE// UP 0 ROUBLE AND 67 BASIS PTS. WOULD YOU BELIEVE THAT THE RUSSIAN ROUBLE AND THE ISRAEL SHEKEL ARE THE STRONGEST CURRENCIES BESIDES THE DOLLAR .
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.9237 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.645 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.569 UP 8 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.183 UP 8 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early THURSDAY MORNING: 100.66 DOWN 10 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.457% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.884% UP 2 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 4.035 UP 3 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.553 DOWN 3 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.871 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.0729 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1426 UP 0.0005 OR 5 basis points
USA/Japan: 162.45 DOWN 0.103 OR YEN IS UP 10 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.9397 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.662 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 0 BASIS pts to 1.4171
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY 6.7944 ON SHORE ..UP
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.7987
TURKISH LIRA: 46.88 PLUS 2 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.576% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.0864 UP 2 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.191 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4110.00
SILVER AT 10;00: 59.47
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY
DAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM///
London: CLOSED DOWN 16.93 PTS OR 0.16%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 110.29OR 0.083%
FRANCE: UP 74.02 OR 0.90 PTS
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 230.40 PTS OR 1.21 %
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 502.74 PTS OR 0.98%
WTI Oil price 73.97 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 78.63 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 76.25 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 55 / 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.549 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.157 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM//
Euro vs USA 1.1428 UP 0.0007 OR 7 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3407 UP 0.0014 OR 14 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.9034 UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.631 UP 1 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.878 UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 4.026 UP 2 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 162.39 DOWN 0.153 OR YEN UP 15 BASIS PTS//GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM 160.00/DANGEROUS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4171 UP 0.0003 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 71.60
Brent OIL: 75.97
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS pts to 4.543
USA 30 yr bond yield: DOWN 1 PTS to 5.056%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.164 DOWN 4 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.526 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.126 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 100.73 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 46.87 UP 3 BASIS PTS GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 76.16 UP 0 AND 64/100 roubles //
GOLD $4121,50 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 59.92 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 133.31 POINTS OR 0/25%
NASDAQ 100 UP 474.54 PTS OR 1.62%
VOLATILITY INDEX 15.81 DOWN 1.09 PTS OR 6.45%
GLD: $ 378.18 UP 3.73 PTS OR 1.00%
SLV/ $54.14 PTS UP 1.31 OR 2.48%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 253.75 PTS OR 0.73%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
‘New Models, Momentum, & Memory Support Stocks As Oil Slides On Hormuz Hopes
WRAP UP;
US stocks traded higher, driven by tech, despite continued strikes – Newsquawk Daily Asia-Pac Opening News
Thursday, Jul 09, 2026 – 05:19 PM
- US stocks closed higher on Thursday, with sector performance mixed, as geopolitical headlines dominated price action. While the US struck multiple Iranian targets overnight and Iran retaliated, risk sentiment improved after President Trump said Iran had reached out to the US and wanted to make a deal, easing concerns over a further escalation that could threaten energy infrastructure.
- Strikes continued throughout Thursday, with reports of explosions near US bases in the Gulf, while explosions were heard in southern Iran and Bushehr.
- However, N12 reported, citing a senior US official, that the US military did not carry out the attacks on Iran.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese PPI (Jun) and Supply from Australia.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
More Newsquawk in 2 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
IRAN CONFLICT
- There were multiple reports of explosions across the Gulf. There were reports of explosions near the Ali al-Salem base and the Kuwait port area while there were Iranian missiles seen in the sky heading towards the Zarqa US base. On the other side, there were reports of explosions in Iran’s Bandar Abbas, Bushehr and Choghadak.
- More recently, Iranian sources reported air defense system activations in the cities of Chabahar in southeastern Iran and Bushehr in southwestern Iran, according to Kann’s Roi Kais. This was further confirmed by reporter Stein. However, there have been no explosions on Kharg Island so far.
- A senior American official claimed that the US military did not carry out the attacks on Iran in recent hours, according to N12’s Ravid. This was further reported by an Al Arabiya report, citing sources.
- The Iranians denied that there were any explosions at all in the places where explosions were reported, according to the Jerusalem Post.
- Deputy Political and Security Governor of Bushehr said the explosion heard was due to the timely response of the air defense and said a military HQ on outskirts of Bushehr was violated and hit by US-Israeli projectile.
- Iran’s IRGC said Iran fired ten ballistic missiles on Jordan’s Azraq military base and stated that “if the US terrorist army repeats its aggression, other US bases in the region will not be safe from our heavy fire.”
- Iran National Security Commission Spokesperson warned that transportation and oil and gas infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Jordan and Bahrain will be legitimate targets of Iran’s response to recent attacks, Fars reported.
- Iranian politician Zarghami said “if the attacks continue, the Persian Gulf countries must close their oil wells. Otherwise, we will set them on fire.”
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi warned against further US military ‘adventurism’ in call with Pakistan’s army chief, reported Al Jazeera.
- “Islamabad and Doha are consulting on the return of Iran and the US to negotiations”, ISNA reported citing Pakistani sources. “Pakistan remains optimistic about preserving this memorandum of understanding.”
- After several oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, Qatar has reportedly suspended plans to rapidly ramp up LNG production.
- Israel is willing to join future US attacks on Iran should Washington seek help after President Trump declared the cease-fire with Tehran “over,” sources in Jerusalem told The Post.
- A US official, on Lebanon-Israel talks, said we have moved to the implementation stage of the framework and the first pilot zone will launch in a matter of days.
- Lebanon intends to demand in talks with Israel in Rome a binding timeline for the IDF’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon, MaarivOnline’s Barsky reported.
- Lebanese Foreign Minister said “we are continuing on the path of negotiations with Israel.”
- Israeli Defence Minister Katz said they will remain within the Lebanon security zone and will operate within it until Hezbollah is disarmed.
US TRADE
- US stocks closed higher on Thursday, with sector performance mixed, as geopolitical headlines dominated price action. While the US struck multiple Iranian targets overnight and Iran retaliated, risk sentiment improved after President Trump said Iran had reached out to the US and wanted to make a deal, easing concerns over a further escalation that could threaten energy infrastructure.
- SPX +0.81% at 7,544, NDX +1.62% at 29,727, DJI +0.27% at 52,492, RUT +1.22% at 2,993
- Click here for a detailed summary.
CENTRAL BANKS
- Fed announced leadership and objectives for monetary policy task forces; each to be co-led by three experts external to the Fed and be supported by Fed staff. Click here to see a detailed breakdown
- Fed’s Williams (Voter) said there is good understanding about ways to shift demand for reserves and the balance sheet debate should not be about the nominal size of holdings. It is unclear how much smaller the Fed balance sheet can get. On inflation, Williams said it is far too high.
- BoE Chief Economist Pill said interest rates may need to increase this year to keep rising prices under control. “The speed limit at which you can run the economy is a bit lower than it’s been in the past”.
- ECB Minutes: Officials did note that inflation is expected to remain well above the 2% target into the first half of next year, with core inflation projected to stay above 2% for the entire projection horizon despite the policy tightening. All members viewed the risks surrounding inflation outlook as being to the upside relative to staff baseline forecasts.
- ECB President Lagarde said need inflation is needed in roughly 3 years time.
- Banxico Minutes: Members considered balance of risks for trajectory of inflation within forecast horizon remains biased to the upside; Estimates it will be appropriate to maintain reference rate at current level
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Meta (META) signed long-term supply agreements for memory, networking gear, and flash storage, according to Reuters citing a memo.
DATA RECAP
- US Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/04) 215.0k vs. Exp. 219k (Prev. 217k, Low. 210k, High. 225k).
- US Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun/27) 1814.0k vs. Exp. 1820.0k (Prev. 1806K).
- US Existing Home Sales (Jun) 4.09M vs. Exp. 4.20M (Prev. 4.17M).
FX
- DXY was lower against most G10 FX peers as price action was dominated by broader macro sentiment and geopolitical developments, as opposed to anything Dollar related. On the day, there was little reaction to comments from Fed’s Williams or initial jobless claims, which were more-or-less unchanged M/M.
- EUR was helped higher at the start of the European session, following comments by US President Trump stating Iran wants to make a deal. Upside continued after German trade balance data, which printed higher than expected and as exports exceeded the consensus range. After topping at 1.1449, EUR/USD traded rangebound and held above 1.1420. ECB Minutes were a non-event.
- GBP, similarly, saw upside at the start of the European session but traded either side of the 1.3400 handle throughout the US session. There were comments by BoE Chief Economist Pill, in which he said interest rates may need to increase this year to keep rising prices under control
- JPY saw modest strength, but in line with its peers.
- NZD was the clear outperformer as it continued to climb post-RBNZ hawkish hike.
FIXED INCOME
- T-notes gained as Trump said Iran wants a deal while fresh strikes avoid energy infrastructure.
- US sells USD 22bln of 30-year bonds; Stop through 0.3bps.
COMMODITIES
- Oil prices was lower, and ultimately weighed by Trump’s more positive remarks in the European morning. Benchmarks were sold throughout the US session as the IRGC said, “If the US army repeats its aggression, other US bases in the region will not be safe from our heavy fire.” Pressure in crude benchmarks was attributed to the statement threatening military bases, but not energy infrastructure. For the record, WTI traded between USD 71.42-75.13/bbl and Brent USD 75.58-79.25/bbl.
- Turkish Energy Minister is planning to sign deal with Iraq on pipeline covering the next 12 months soon, and deal with Iraq at the final stage of the pipeline, according to Anadolu.
- Iraqi Prime Minister said “we seek a fair share of production from OPEC”, Al Hadath reported, and added that Iraq will not withdraw from OPEC.
- QatarEnergy said the elected to stop the planned output increase at Ras Laffan (306k BPD) following the attacks on Tuesday, according to sources.
- US EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (Jul/03) 61Bcf.
- NBP Governor Glapinski said bank has Gold worth “about” PLN 308bln.
GEOPOLITICAL
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russian President Putin is reportedly likely to escalate the Ukraine war, according to sources close to the Kremlin. “High probability” of escalation in coming months, it could extend beyond Ukraine’s borders and into NATO-aligned Baltic states. Putin reportedly sees full Donbas control as an essential victory.
- Russia’s Saratov oil refinery has reportedly halted processing following a drone attack on Wednesday, according to sources.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said the military has struck Russian oil depots in the Tver and Stavropol regions and also strikes on a Russian oil pumping station in Ufa and an oil terminal in the Rostov region.
- Ukraine’s Military said it struck 12 Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov.
OTHER
ASIA-PAC
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- China is reportedly mulling tightening the process of vetting AI modes, WSJ reported citing sources. There are concerns that sharing some tech could help others to act against China.
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said they are watching markets with a high sense of urgency.
- Taiwan Balance of Trade (Jun) 12.20B (Prev. 17.91B); Exports YoY 40.3% (Prev. 51.7%); Imports YoY 51.80% (Prev. 54.9%).
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fitch said Germany’s latest reform package is positive for public finances over the longer term and for the economy, but falls short of being transformative. Pension and healthcare reforms should help to put the public finances on a more sustainable footing but if large fiscal easing is not accompanied by a lasting improvement in growth prospects, pressure on the rating would increase.
- Andy Burnham gets 322 nominations from Labour MPs for the party leadership.
DATA RECAP
- German Balance of Trade (May) 19.1B vs. Exp. 14B (Prev. 14.5B).
- German Exports MoM (May) M/M 0.9% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.9%, Low. -1%, High. 0.5%).
- German Imports MoM (May) M/M -2.5% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 1.2%, Low. -2%, High. 0.8%).
560
USA DATA RELEASES/
‘Slow Hire, No Fire’ Economy Continues As Jobless Claims Remain Near Record Lows
Thursday, Jul 09, 2026 – 08:37 AM
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time fell to to 215k last week (versus 217k exp), remaining near multi-decade lows…
California and Missouri saw the biggest increase in initial claims while New Jersey and Connecticut saw the largest decline…
Continuing jobless claims ticked higher (highest since March) but remains well off cycle highs from Q4…
Despite disappointing payrolls (though jobs are still being added, though at a slower pace)…
…jobless claims data suggests there is no labor market stress as the economy has morphed into ‘slow hire, no fire’ regime
END
US Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Dropped In June, Just Off Record Lows
Thursday, Jul 09, 2026 – 10:09 AM
After an ugly Spring selling season, existing home sales have rebounded in Q2 (so far) with expectations for another 1.0% MoM increase in June.
However, that was not to be with US existing home sales tumbling 2.4% MoM in June (although May was revised up to a +3.7% MoM gain from +3.2%). That slowed the annual improvement in sales to +2.75% YoY…
Overall, existing home sales SAAR remains just off record lows…
“The back-and-forth in monthly home sales activity, driven by mild fluctuations in mortgage rates, shows how sensitive home buyers are to affordability conditions,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement. But recent job gains will continue to provide support to the housing market, he added.
NAR’s Housing Affordability Index, which measures whether typical families can qualify for a mortgage for a median-priced home, has improved somewhat from a year ago but is at its lowest since August 2025.
Inventories of new homes for sale remain high (and are thus pressuring homebuilders to choke back on additional supply)…
But, the inventory of existing homes for sale climbed 1.3% from a year earlier to 1.56 million. From a month earlier, however, it fell slightly for the first time this year.
Yun called the annual gain “minuscule.”
“We need to see 30%, 40%,” he said. “We’re not seeing that.”
Last month, the median sales price of a previously owned home rose 1.8% from a year ago to a record high of $440,600, NAR data show.
While prices continue to climb, the advance is far smaller than the gains seen a couple years ago.
Weakness in the US South, the nation’s biggest home-selling region, helped drag down the national results, with sales there declining 3.6% to an annualized 1.89 million. Sales also slipped in the Midwest and West, though they gained in the Northeast.
First-time buyers accounted for 33% of sales in June, compared with 35% in May.
END
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
DOJ Warns State Election Officials Can Be Charged Over Noncitizen Voting
Wednesday, Jul 08, 2026 – 08:05 PM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,
The Department of Justice (DOJ) has sent letters to election officials across the country, warning them that they could be charged if they let noncitizens receive ballots or vote in elections.
Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon speaks during a news conference at the Justice Department in Washington on Sept. 29, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
“Any election officer, including the chief election officer of the state, who knowingly retains noncitizens on the state’s [voter list] or facilitates noncitizens in receiving and casting ballots could be subject to criminal liability,” Harmeet Dhillon, the assistant attorney general for civil rights, said in the letters, which were sent on July 7.
It is also a crime to prevent people who try to vote from voting, the officials were also told.
Dhillon also outlined various laws that set forth requirements for state and local election officials regarding voter lists.
“We encourage you to contact us to discuss what steps your state should take to maintain clean voter lists as required by law,” Dhillon wrote.
A DOJ spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email, “The Department sent these letters to all 50 states and the District of Columbia, asking for voluntary compliance in a timely manner with their obligations under federal law to ensure only citizens vote in federal elections.”
The letters came after the DOJ requested data on registered voters from all states. Several dozen, including Utah, have declined to comply with the request, sparking legal action from the department. Judges have so far ruled against the agency, including a judge who in June said the request sought data that falls outside of records the federal government may require states to produce.
Utah Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson said in a post on Threads that she received one of the letters from Dhillon.
“I’m sure I’m not the only chief election officer of a state who is being targeted for following state and federal laws by resisting DOJ’s demands for private voter data that have thus far been ruled illegal by at least a dozen courts,” Henderson said. “This is truly bizarre behavior by the federal agency that is supposed to be protecting civil rights.”
Dhillon also said Tuesday that the DOJ will send election monitors to six states – Arizona, Michigan, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia – during primary elections this year.
The monitors will be focused on issues such as access to polls for disabled voters and whether voting locations are open for the amount of time that is required under federal law.
“It’s also important to make sure that our voting is accurate so that every citizen who votes has their vote counted equally without being canceled out by somebody who shouldn’t be voting,” Dhillon said in a video statement.
Jesus Osete, the DOJ’s principal deputy assistant attorney general for civil rights, said in a post on X that federal election monitors “are a routine part of every election.”
END
US Navy Backs 3,800 MPH-Speeding Blackbeard Hypersonic Missile With First Contract
Wednesday, Jul 08, 2026 – 10:35 PM
Authored by Sujita Sinha via Interesting Engineering,
The U.S. Navy has awarded defense technology startup Castelion its first production contract for the Blackbeard hypersonic missile. This $23.4 million deal includes 50 pre-production missiles and shows the Navy is ready to move the program past development and testing.
The U.S. Navy awarded Castellion a contract to deliver Blackbeard hypersonic missiles. Castelion
This contract comes as the Pentagon looks for faster, more affordable hypersonic weapons for long-range strikes. For Castelion, it is the first step toward making Blackbeard at a scale that could support future military missions.
Navy Moves Blackbeard Toward Operational Service
The contract helps further develop the Blackbeard weapon system and expands manufacturing at Castelion’s Project Ranger site in Rio Rancho, New Mexico.
Blackbeard is designed to be a low-cost, easy-to-produce hypersonic missile capable of exceeding Mach 5, or over 3,800 mph (6,100 km/h). At these speeds, it can cover long distances quickly and is much harder to intercept than traditional weapons.
Most of the work for this contract will happen in Rio Rancho, with some activities in Torrance, California. Castelion expects to finish the work in 2027.
This new contract shows increasing confidence in the program as it moves from flight testing to limited production and future deployment.
“Blackbeard was designed from the beginning to support our nation’s conventional deterrence,” Castelion Co-Founder and CEO Bryon Hargis said in a press statement.
“This award reflects the Navy’s continued commitment to rapidly advancing affordable, manufacturable long-range strike capability and moving Blackbeard toward early operational use.”
Series Of Major Contracts Accelerates Program
This production contract comes after several major government deals Castelion has won this year.
In February, the company received a contract worth almost $50 million to accelerate development and produce prototypes of the Blackbeard system. This funding was intended to support testing and prepare the program for future needs.
Two months later, in April, Castelion landed another big contract worth $107 million. This deal aims to integrate Blackbeard with the Navy’s F/A-18 fighter jets, giving the missile more ways to be used.
These back-to-back contracts show the program is gaining momentum as the Navy looks for new ways to use hypersonic weapons on different platforms.
Expanding Launch Options Beyond Aircraft
The company is also working on new ways to launch Blackbeard, which could make it more flexible in operations.
The company has teamed up with defense tech firm Saronic to put the missile on the Marauder unmanned surface vessel. They plan a demonstration in 2027, which could be the first time a hypersonic weapon is launched from an unmanned surface ship.
If the test works, it will show a new way to use hypersonic weapons from unmanned naval platforms, without needing a crew.
Project Ranger Becomes Production Hub
To support its long-term manufacturing plans, the defense firm has put over $250 million into Project Ranger, its large production campus in New Mexico.
The facility covers about 1,000 acres (405 hectares) and is the main site for Castelion’s push to make hypersonic weapons more cheaply and in bigger numbers than traditional methods. The new Navy contract will help grow production at the site and support the delivery of the first 50 pre-production missiles.
END
“Results Were Tempered”: Pepsi Blames US Snack Slump On Cash-Strapped Consumers
Thursday, Jul 09, 2026 – 02:00 PM
PepsiCo blamed the second-quarter slowdown in its North American food unit on consumers tightening their belts. The period was marked by elevated pump prices tied to the US-Iran war, a squeeze that hit lower-income households the hardest and weighed on discretionary snack and beverage purchases.
Revenue in the company’s North American food unit fell 2%, while volumes remained flat, even as the junk food giant slashed prices on some of its brands by as much as 15% earlier this year to lure working-class consumers.
“Results were tempered in the quarter as U.S. food and beverage category performance moderated with consumer budgets tightening due to rising inflationary pressures,” CEO Ramon Laguarta stated in a press release.
“Our North America business was softer than we anticipated in the second quarter, and we now expect a more gradual improvement in performance trends for the balance of this year,” CFO Steve Schmitt said in prepared remarks.
PepsiCo reaffirmed its full-year guidance and reported adjusted earnings of $2.20 a share for the second quarter, slightly above the Bloomberg Consensus estimate.
The company has also raised prices on some smaller bags and is expanding its product line to include more protein and fiber as consumer tastes shift toward healthier options.
Here’s JPMorgan analyst Andrea Teixeira’s first take on PepsiCo earnings:
The earnings beat was of lower quality, driven mostly by below-the-line items and OSG came in a tick below expectations as North America underperformance was offset by stronger International. PFNA turned negative again after a strong start in 1Q26, with volumes decelerating to flat vs. +2% in 1Q, as management noted that U.S. food and beverage category performance moderated in the second quarter amid higher inflationary pressures. Management reiterated guidance (in line with our expectations and preview), but is now expecting a more gradual improvement in trends in North America and is now embedding a ~1 point benefit to EPS from tariff refunds in the guidance (mostly occurring in 3Q and allocated to PBNA, with the company likely to use these tariff refunds to offset higher COGS and reinvest in A&M to reignite volumes). The company is also pointing to 4Q-weighted EPS growth in 2H. PEP turnaround is deep and investors should not expect a straight line as with most restructurings in CPGs, yet we think investors will need to get more reassurance in consumption data ahead in order to feel more confident that the ingredient reformulation, brand restaging and affordability actions are working.
Peter Grom of UBS’ first take:
Initial Reaction: Negative. Heading into the print, given weaker tracked trends in North America our conversations suggested most anticipated organic sales to be under pressure with much of the debate centering on how company frames the full year outlook and the path from here. Against that backdrop, we think the print more or less played out as expected but was still disappointing on the surface relative to consensus as organic sales fell short, GM/ OPM came in below with total company EPS ahead of expectations due to favorable below-the-line items. From a guidance perspective, the company maintained their outlook and while they did not point to the low end of the range (as some expected), management did outline that growth is expected to be 4Q weighted. While this is not surprising on the surface given the external environment and timing of input cost pressures, we would note that simply hitting the low end of the range implies +HSD EPS growth in 4Q against a tougher comparison on the bottom line – which some are likely to view as optimistic. In many ways we do not think the print will be viewed as thesis changing and although it would not entirely surprise us to see shares trade higher today given positioning, based on the quality of the print/outlook alone, we would expect shares to trade lower this morning (currently -1.2% pre-market).
Separate but notable is a chart from food retail equity analyst Scott Marks at Jefferies that shows a sharp decline in average benefits per SNAP participant (read report) …
Pepsi shares slipped nearly 2% in premarket trading Thursday. The stock is down about 1% year-to-date and lagging the broader S&P 500 index.
GRAHAM SUMMERS…
A Leaked Treasury Report Just Confirmed What I’ve Been Warning About
by Phoenix Capital Research
Wednesday, Jul 08, 2026 – 8:59
A leaked report from the U.S. Treasury has confirmed my worst fears.
Those fears?
That the entire stock market and by proxy the economy have become one gigantic leveraged bet on the Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution. As I’ve noted previously, AI-related stocks have accounted for 75% of market gains, 80% of corporate profits and 95% of corporate capital expenditures since the bull market began in November 2022.
As the leaked report notes, “AI investors are taking risks so significant that much of the financial system now rests upon AI meeting expectations for productivity gains and profitability…”
In simple terms, with trillions of dollars in capital betting on AI proving to be a “holy grail” technology that increases productivity, reduces costs, and boosts profits, if AI fails to deliver on these promises, it rapidly becomes a systemic risk.
The report states that a “downturn in the AI market would send shockwaves throughout the entire economic ecosystem.”
How big would these shockwaves be?
The report states that “stock markets, private credit markets, companies financing data center buildouts, cloud providers, chip manufacturers and utilities would all feel the effect.”
Companies financing data center buildouts alone include Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple. Those companies account for over 18% of the S&P 500’s weighting. Throw in Nvidia, which has recently gotten involved in financing data centers, and the total weight of this segment of the market becomes ~25%.
If those companies go down because AI proves to be a dud, things get UGLY fast.
I bring all of this up because part of the AI trade is already blowing up. In the last few weeks many AI-bottleneck stocks (companies that supply critical components or services to the AI-buildout) have been obliterated with many of them down 20%-50%.
This begs the question… is the AI bust actually just around the corner and the Trump admin intentionally leaked this report to get out in front of it?
I’ll be assessing that as well as which investments stand to generate extraordinary returns from it in this week’s Private Wealth Advisory.
To take out a $2.99, 30-day trial to this service to make sure your account is ready to go when this report hits clients inboxes later this week…
Best Regards
Graham Summers, MBA
Chief Market Strategist
KING NEWS
| The King Report July 9, 2026 Issue 7779 | Independent View of the News |
| @SkyNews: Trump says the ceasefire between U.S. and Iran is over. “To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore; they’re scum”, the U.S. president says. Trump from Ankara, Turkey on Wednesday morning: “We hit them very hard last night, probably hit them again tonight… if we need to we will hit even more and even deeper… if we have to we will take out higher level targets… we may take over Kharg Island… We may put it back, the blockade, and it’ll only be a blockade for Iran… They’ll never build a nuclear weapon under our deal, but I don’t know if we’re going to have a deal. We may just do it without a deal because you know what it’s easier… To me I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them; they’re scum; they’re sick people. They’re led by wicked people. They’re vicious violent people and if they had a nuclear weapon, they would use it… As far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time… Something is wrong with them; they’re cuckoo. As far as I’m concerned, it’s over. They can talk but I think it’s just a waste of time… They lie; they cheat; they’re sick people that they hurt their people. They killed 54,000 of their people. Frankly, I don’t want to waste my time with them Our wonderful negotiators can keep talking if they want…” https://x.com/DrEliDavid/status/2074781504757027087 Trump: “We’re not attacking at the highest level. The highest level are the bridges…their electric plants, where they make their electricity. If we have to, we’ll take them out. I don’t want to do that, but if we have to, we’ll take them out…We attacked Kharg Island last night—we knocked out a piece. I said, ‘don’t touch the oil’ because maybe we’ll take over Kharg Island. We may take over Kharg Island. There’s not a thing they can do about it…normally, I’m not that way, but they really deserve it.” https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2074852173318353021 Trump: “Maybe we will do something that could increase the oil price.” @Osint613: REPORTER: “Last month you said Iranian leaders were very rational people, nice to deal with, strong and smart. Today you said they’re scum, sick people, and being led by sick people. What changed?” TRUMP: “I got to know them.” https://x.com/Osint613/status/2074895990520238592 Iran’s Press TV, citing an Iran official: “Following any strike against Iran, two immediate actions will be taken: first, the Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed to all maritime traffic; and second, Iran will strike enemy targets at a ratio of at least two to one, meaning that for every Iranian target hit, at least two enemy targets will be struck in return…” BBC: Iranian hardliners are calling for President Donald Trump to be formally designated as a murderer and say he must not be engaged with negotiations. They also back proposals for a $100 million bounty on anyone who succeeds in killing Trump presented as retaliation for the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a US Israeli strike. @HormuzReport: A source close to Iran’s chief negotiator says Iran is preparing a massive, coordinated strike on Israel—hundreds of drones and missiles, including new, never-before-seen weapons—following intelligence that Israel could attack as early as today, per some Iranian outlets. The source pointed to Hegseth’s abrupt Israel trip cancellation and Trump’s warning — “I will probably hit them hard again tonight” — as confirmation that escalation is imminent. The source emphasized Netanyahu’s political calculus: facing October elections, he needs a show of strength — and a strike on Iran would boost his standing. Israel’s refusal to withdraw from Lebanon and its willingness to act alone has convinced Tehran that an attack is coming. Iran is preparing accordingly. BBG @business: Russia bans exports of diesel in order to avoid domestic shortages after a flurry of attacks by Ukrainian drones on the nation’s refineries Iran ‘definitely’ possesses chemical weapons, would not hesitate to kill Americans: Netanyahu https://trib.al/NL8x9jS Trump: “Spain is a wasted cause. We don’t want to do any trade business with Spain anymore, by the way. I’d like you to cut it off. Spain is a terrible partner in NATO. They don’t participate. They don’t pay. I don’t want anything to do with Spain. Cut off all trade with Spain, please.” “Including visits. We don’t want anything to do [with Spain]. Watch them come running back.” “Spain doesn’t agree to anything… We don’t have to trade with them. I DON’T want to do any more trade with them. Immediately, DON’T even talk to them. They’re hopeless.” https://x.com/RedWavePress/status/2074816487957594378 Near the 11:30 ET European close, Brent Oil was +7.93%. Aug WTI Oil was +7.5%; Aug Gasoline was +6.15%; USUs were -26/32; the DJIA was -821.10. The DJTA was -288.42. The SOX Index was -60.25. The NY Fangs+ Index was – 168.20. Gold was -$116.60. The 2-year note was 4.233%. ESUs waffled between small gains and losses from the 18:00 ET open until they commenced a tumble at 4:16 ET. ESUs made an effective double low of 7468.50 at 5:12 ET and 7469.00 at 6:11 ET. Traders eagerly bought; ESUs surged to 7524,75 at 9:45 ET. A pro dump appeared; ESUs sank to 7469.60 at the 11:30 ET European close. The countermove to the European close became a robust rally that took ESUs to 7536.50 at 13:31 ET. AI stocks led the rally; the SOX Index hit a daily high of +2.56% at 13:35 ET. After a retreat to 7514.50 at 13:56 ET, ESUs vacillated sideways with a spike to 756.50 at 15:47 ET. ESUs then slid to7522.75 at 16:01 ET. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee June 16–17, 2026 Participants generally noted that inflation had increased further and remained well above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective. They observed that both core and total inflation had moved higher and generally attributed these increases to the lingering effects of tariffs, supply chain disruptions related to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and strength in demand for some goods and services stemming from robust AI-related investment. Several participants commented that price pressures had become more broad-based, with a large share of goods and services—including transportation, airfares, petrochemical products, and agricultural inputs—experiencing substantial increases. Several participants remarked that services price inflation excluding housing had declined little and remained high… A few participants commented that, in light of these developments, there was a case for raising the target range for the federal funds rate, but those participants indicated that they supported maintaining the current target range at this meeting… https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20260617.pdf @JTheretohelp1: Wilshire 5000 to GDP… While many point to valuation metrics on the S&P, the Wilshire 5000 includes 10 times as many stocks and broadens our perspective on the markets. Using the FT Wilshire 5000 as the numerator, the current Buffett Valuation Indicator is now at 214.1% as of the last update. This is the second-highest level in the series’ history, behind only the previous quarter… While valuations aren’t designed as a market timing tool, they do provide ample evidence that investors will see considerably lower returns over the longer term. If you are an investor, there are ways to increase returns over secular slumps, but it won’t be in the conventional 60/40 portfolio that most investors have been accustomed to over the last 50 years! Soon, and most will probably find this out the hard way, selective investing will become key! https://x.com/JTheretohelp1/status/2075002326935372042 Positive aspects of previous session Traders sought refuge in AI bubble stocks and Fangs. The SOX Index rallied as much as 2.56%. The equity and bond lows appeared near the European close. Negative aspects of previous session Gasoline and oil rallied sharply; diesel fuel (ULSD) had its 2nd largest rally in history (+12.64%). The DJIA declined 576.76. USUs declined as much as 26/32. The 2-year note hit 4.233%. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Most traders expect Trump to Taco. Will he? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Down Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7464.34 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7488.51 (11:30 ET); 7421.82 (15:57 ET) Fox Managing Editor, Politics @WillRicci: My read on the Vance/Rubio split is aging pretty well, and Trump just put Vance in a box. Hear me out: Vance won the first Iran argument: stop the war, buy time, reopen Hormuz, give Tehran an economic off-ramp and sell the whole thing as “peace.” Trump made him own it. That matters because the MOU was never just paperwork. It was Vance’s worldview in diplomatic form: conflict is a trap, incentives the solution, & enough trade, investment & legitimacy can pull a revolutionary terror regime toward normality. Rubio’s lane was always different: pressure, leverage, terms. He defended Vance publicly because that’s what a disciplined cabinet sec does, but he never tied himself to the fantasy that Iran was one investment package away from acting like a normal country. Now Trump is saying the opposite out loud. They’re scum, crazy, liars and cheats. They’ve acted this way for 47 years. They have to be stopped. That’s Rubio’s argument in Trump’s vocabulary. So Vance has a problem. He can’t keep selling the MOU as peace after Trump called it a waste of time, so the escape hatch will be obvious: Iran failed the test, America hit back, and we win either way. Fine. But that’s not what he sold. He sold an off-ramp & “peace,” but Iran used it to regroup. Rubio doesn’t have to spike the football. Trump is already doing that for him. If policy follows the rhetoric, Rubio’s lane gets handed the wheel: pressure, leverage & terms Iran can’t refuse. If policy stays at punishment Iran already priced in, Vance’s failed bet becomes the admin’s problem — and no one can run from that. Transcript: Trump Holds Press Conference at NATO Leaders Summit in Turkey – July 8, 2026 Trump: “I want to get the word out because what’s forming is communism in the country. And communism’s easy to sell. I would be the greatest communist in history. I’d be right up there with Lenin. I’d be as good as anybody…” https://singjupost.com/transcript-trump-holds-press-conference-at-nato-leaders-summit-in-turkey-july-8-2026/ Axios’ @BarakRavid: The U.S. official said Wednesday’s strikes are wider in scope than the strikes the days before. The targets include IRGC coastal radars, anti-ship missile positions and air defense systems. 4:20 PM (The excuse for a TACO appeared a few hours later.) Trump on Air Force One: “They called a little while ago. They want to make a deal so badly — I just don’t know if they’re worthy of making a deal. I don’t know that they’re going to honor the deal. That’s the problem.” https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2075013154904449058 Today – Watch the 2-year note; it hit 4.233% on Wednesday. 4.228% on June 22, 2026, was the highest yield since February 2025. Ergo, the 2-year note is breaking out – and ‘experts’ aver that Fed Funds should equal the 2-year note yield. After early trouble, stocks rallied smartly on Wednesday, led by the trading sardines: AI-related issues and Fangs. As opined above, most traders expect Trump to TACO – and on Wednesday evening DJT provided the excuse – ‘they want to make a deal’ (Umpteenth time) – to resume negotiations with Iran. ESUs are +4.75; NQUs are +94.00; USUs are -6/32; WTI Oil is+0.73; Gasoline is +1.90 at 20:29 ET. Expected Impact Economic Data: Initial Jobless Claims 218k, Continuing Claims 1.815m; June Existing Home Sales 4.2m: Dallas Fed Pres Logan 1:30 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 7417; 100-day MA: 7103; 150-day MA: 7033; 200-day MA: 6956 DJIA 50-day MA: 50,761;100-day MA: 49,323; 150-day MA: 49,142; 200-day MA: 48,545 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (7482.71 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6248.85 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6861.16 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 7398.77 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 7487.88 triggers a buy signal @Osint613: Trump: “I like President Erdogan. He rolled out the red carpet for me. He is a great man. I love Bibi. He is a great Prime Minister. But Bibi said some harsh things yesterday about Turkey and about Erdogan. And I told him, ‘You know, I spoke with him. I said he could have joined the war because he doesn’t really like Israel. And he doesn’t really like Bibi either. But he didn’t do it because of me.’ This is a military power. Millions of soldiers. Turkey is very strong. They have a lot of our best equipment. They are also trying to get the F-35 jets. But he didn’t enter the war. He wanted to. He would have entered. If not for me, he would have entered, and he would have been on the other side.” The Scroll’s @hpmcd1: I mean, to some extent, this is Trump being Trump, but I really can’t overstate how ridiculous it is that European NATO gets crucified for not bombing Iran, whereas Turkey gets praised for not entering the war on Iran’s side. (Why does DJT habitually praise vicious dictators?) @KylieJaneKremer: Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear has taken the highly unusual step of formally sending a letter to Senator McConnell requesting that he update Kentuckians on his health and ability to continue serving in the United States Senate… https://x.com/KylieJaneKremer/status/2074862516610457919 If McConnell dies before Aug 3, Kentucky law would trigger a special election for his Senate seat. California approves ‘largest tax hike in history’ – here’s where you’ll pay more https://trib.al/xkgJQ1o Please advise us if you know a practical alternative to Bloomberg. | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
“We’re Gonna Win Someday”: Graham Platner Suspends His Senate Campaign
Wednesday, Jul 08, 2026 – 09:00 PM
Update: Graham Platner, the Democratic Party nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine, announced Wednesday that he’s suspending his campaign. The move comes two days after Politico reported allegations of rape against him by a former girlfriend. He posted an emotional video explaining his decision.
“And I just want to make it clear this is all false,” Platner said.
“The things that have been claimed did not happen; it’s not real.”
He described the past few days as an ordeal no regular person should have to survive, a normal guy suddenly thrust into a spotlight he says he never wanted. He accused the media and the political establishment of skipping the investigation entirely and jumping straight to a verdict.
“I learned about this through press inquiries with no time to truly respond, no time for investigations before a corporate media system and the political establishment got to act as judge, jury and executioner,” he said.
“Accusations are supposed to be the beginning of things, not the end.”
Platner claimed the allegations surfaced now for a specific reason. His official nomination locks in on July 13, and he says this was the last window anyone had to knock him off the ballot before that happened.
“I only have until July 13th until I am officially the nominee. This was the last week to try to get me off of the ballot, and that’s why this is occurring,” he said.
He argued the real threat was never the allegations themselves, but what the political establishment plans to do with them. Cut off his fundraising. Cut off his voter data. Starve the campaign of everything it needs simply to function. He made his read on their real preference painfully clear.
“They would rather see Susan Collins win than have me be the next senator from Maine,” he said.
He leaned heavily on his June 9 primary win, in which he pulled in more votes than any primary candidate in Maine’s history, to argue that whatever happens next should be decided by voters, not party insiders in Washington.
“It needs to be open, transparent, and Democratic,” he said.
“Party apparatchiks are not the ones to make these decisions.”
Then, the announcement itself.
“We are suspending campaign operations,” Platner said, adding that he intends to file paperwork to formally withdraw from the race.
He framed the decision as anything but an admission of guilt; instead, he blamed outside forces for making it impossible for the campaign to continue functioning, even after beating what he called one of the most entrenched political systems in the world just weeks earlier.
“We went toe-to-toe with one of the most entrenched political systems in the history of the world, and we won,” Platner said.
“We beat them on June 9th in overwhelming numbers.”
Before signing off, he insisted the movement, and the ballot line his name currently occupies, still belongs to the voters who built it, not to party leadership in Washington.
“But now the ball is in the court of the democratic establishment,” Platner said.
“My name might be on the ballot right now, but that ballot line belongs to the people of Maine.”
Platner closed by thanking his supporters.
“From the bottom of my heart, thank you,” Platner said. “Thank all of you and keep fighting. We’re gonna win someday.”
* * *
As we detailed earlier, Graham Platner is supposed to be finished. The Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine faces a rape allegation, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have pulled their endorsements, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has told him they won’t spend any money on his campaign if he stays on the ballot. He has until Monday to withdraw before Maine law locks Democrats into running him in November, whether they like it or not.
By every conventional measure, Platner should be packing his bags.
Instead, he is negotiating. Platner has reportedly told the Maine Democratic Party that any replacement must match his own ideological commitments, a demand that has left party strategists sputtering. So far, Rep. Valli Geiger (D-Rockland) says Platner is urging her to try and take his place on the ballot. Dan Pfeiffer, once a senior adviser to Barack Obama, wrote on his Substack that continuing the race is not an option for Platner and predicted a “zombie campaign marching on to certain defeat with no support and no resources.” Chris Cillizza was blunter on X, telling Platner he has “zero leverage.”
Pfeiffer and Cillizza are wrong, and the reason exposes something uncomfortable about the position Democrats have put themselves in.
Platner does not have to withdraw, and the reason he holds most of the cards is simple: the party has nothing it can offer him to leave quietly. The traditional exit ramp for a troubled nominee involves some quiet exchange, a future appointment, a promise of support down the road, and a graceful landing somewhere else. None of that works for Platner because dropping out after winning the nomination, with his baggage, makes him too damaged.
His campaign has also functioned as a vehicle for the Democratic Socialists of America, an organization working methodically to take over the Democratic Party from the inside rather than build a third option outside it.
The other detail Pfeiffer and Cillizza skip past is that Platner won his primary fair and square, and voters knew what they were getting. The Nazi tattoo, the self-described communism, the sexting with multiple women, his old presence on a site associated with child predators, a credible accusation that he abused a former girlfriend: all of it was public before the primary.
When the first abuse allegation surfaced during the campaign, Democratic officials rallied around him, and his campaign posted its best single fundraising day of the race. Sanders campaigned with him at “Fight Oligarchy” rallies. Rep. Ro Khanna flew to Portland to stand beside him. The New York Times even sat on a rape accusation against Platner despite believing the allegation was credible. None of that was a secret to the people now demanding his exit. What changed was the polling.
Democrats spent months rationalizing their support for a candidate they now describe in private as a liability, largely because he looked like their best shot at unseating Sen. Susan Collins, a race the party repeatedly said was central to retaking the Senate majority. For Platner, as long as the numbers held, concerns about his character were excused. Now that the race has tightened, the establishment wants him gone, and it is dressing up a polling problem as a moral awakening.
The Maine Democratic Party is even starting to develop a process to replace Platner, if he withdraws.
“While the Platner campaign remains focused on distracting from the job of defeating Susan Collins in November with false accusations against us, the Maine Democratic Party remains hyper focused on developing a representative, transparent and inclusive process to select a new nominee when he chooses to withdraw from the race,” Devon Murphy-Anderson, Executive Director of the Maine Democratic Party, said in a statement. “While we may be frustrated with Graham Platner’s continued efforts to manipulate this process, we are so thankful for his supporters and all of their efforts to defeat Susan Collins – they are a vital part of our Party and deserve to participate in an open process to select Platner’s replacement.”
But, Platner understands the mechanics of his own situation better than his critics do. He has every reason to believe he can either insist on the candidate of his choice to replace him (he’s reportedly urging Maine State Representative Valli Geiger, (D-Rockland) to take his place, but there’s no guarantee the party will back her) or stay in and carry on by simply denying the allegations, and his DSA-aligned supporters are already framing the pressure campaign as a hit job
If Platner drops out, his political career ends with him.
He knows that.
If he stays, national Democrats face an unpleasant choice: abandon a Senate seat they have spent a year calling essential, or hold their noses and back a nominee they cannot control and increasingly cannot defend.
Maine primary voters already absorbed most of what is now scandalizing Washington, and forcing Platner off the ballot risks convincing his base that the accusations are simply the latest excuse from a party establishment that never wanted him in the first place. Platner’s defiance is a clear sign that he knows he has all the leverage here, and the establishment must decide what to do about it.
end
Biden Defender JB Pritzker Now Claims Trump Has ‘Dementia’
Thursday, Jul 09, 2026 – 07:20 AM
Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, one of President Joe Biden’s most vocal defenders when the former president faced questions about his mental acuity, is now claiming President Donald Trump has dementia.
Pritzker made the remarks during a June 29 interview with CNN host Caitlin Collins while discussing Trump’s criticism of democratic socialism.
Trump had argued that socialism represents a similar threat to the country than historical crises.
“The man is continually suffering from dementia. I don’t think he really understands what he’s saying,” Pritzker stated, providing no evidence for his claim.
Pritzker’s comments mark a stark contrast from how he defended Biden during the 2024 presidential campaign, when questions about the former president’s mental fitness intensified.
Pritzker served as one of Biden’s fiercest campaign surrogates and even sat on his national advisory board.
For instance, when Special Counsel Robert Hur raised concerns about Biden’s memory, Pritzker quickly went on the defensive, going as far as accusing Hur of being politically motivated.
“I’ve been with the President of the United States many times. He is on the ball. The man knows more than most of us have forgotten,” Pritzker claimed in February 2024.
In 2023, ahead of the presidential election, Pritzker downplayed questions about Biden’s fitness for office, praising him as “a gem of a human” while describing Trump as “cruel, cowardly and small.”
Pritzker doubled down on his backing of Biden even after the former president’s disastrous performance in the 2024 presidential debate.
“Listen: Joe Biden is our nominee. I am for Joe Biden,” the Illinois governor claimed. “I’ve been campaigning for Joe Biden. I think you’ve seen I’ve got dates scheduled to go to Indiana, to Ohio for Joe Biden.”
Pritzker’s attacks are in line with a broader Democratic strategy of weaponizing Trump’s age after years of dismissing concerns about Biden, despite mounting video evidence.
end
GREG HUNTER….
harveyorganblog.com 
