ONLY PUBLISHING PRELIMINARY COMEX OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS AND AMOUNTS STANDING
GOLD CLOSED DOWN TO 98.40TO $4047.10
SILVER CLOSED DOWN $2.18 TO $57.73
JULY 23
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,146.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/22/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 07/24/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 82
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 83
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 3
905 C ADM 2
TOTAL: 85 85
MONTH TO DATE: 12,862
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2026: 85 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 8,500 OZ or 0.2643 TONNES
total notices so far: 12,862 contracts FOR 1,286,200 OZ OR 40.00 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 293 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1.475 OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 9139 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 45.695 million oz
GLD AND SLV
GLD
N
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF XX CONTRACTS OR XXX OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER 3 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP TO LONDON FOR 0.015 MILLION OZ// AND THEN TO BOOT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 51 CONTRACTS OR 255,000 OZ MAY 21./STANDING BEFORE EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 32.070 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING THUS REDUCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ/.//(32.070 MILLION OZ NORMAL STANDING PLUS .255 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 32.325 MILLION OZ)
JUNE INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER:10.935 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 12.970 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 20 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.070 MILLION OZ. (IN EXCHANGE FOR RISK THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK AND ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD TAKE THAT RISK. THE BUYER IS PROBABLY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA.)
JULY INITIAL STANDING: 37.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 46 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OR 0.230 MILLION OZ WHERE DELIVERY WILL OCCUR ON THE THIS SIDE OF THE POND//STANDING ADVANCES TO 44.730 MILLION OZ///
SUMMARY OF OUR JULY 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
MAY 59.79 MILLION OZ
JUNE. 64.065 MILLION OZ//FINAL AND FAIR SIZED THIS MONTH.
JULY: 34.630 MILLION OZ
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP OF 15,000 OZ//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 32.070 MILLION OZ//(FOLLOWING MANY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON DURING THIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH). THERE SEEMS TO BE A SCARCITY OF SILVER OVER AT THE COMEX). THEN WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 51 CONTRACTS FOR 255,000 OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND: 10.935 MILLION OZ PLUS OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 12.960 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 20 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.070 MILLION OZ
JULY : INITIAL STANDING: 37.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 0.230 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //STANDING THUS ADVANCES TO 44.730 MILLION OZ//
GOLD//OUTLINE
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 345 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 34,500 OZ/ (1.073 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 345 CONTRACTS OR 34500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 24.635 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES OF GOLD.
JUNE; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 64.496 TONNES.(CME CORRECTED) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.0186 TONNES/NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.22706 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 40.056 TONNES
STANDING FOR THE LAST 7 MONTHS JANUARY TO JULY:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW FINAL STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 345 CONTRACTS/34,500 OZ// 1.073 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MAY// 5 OCCASIONS: 24.635 TONNES///NEW FINAL STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER JUMP OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING 127.03 TONNES//FINAL
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.22706 TONNES//NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 40.056 TONNES.
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 118.430 TONNES
JUNE: 142.053 TONNES
JULY: 85.82 TONNES
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG 360 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 106,770
EFP ISSUANCE 200 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 200 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1911 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 200 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 560 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $1.45
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 2.80 MILLION PAPER OZ
AND WE HAD A STRONG 0.230 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP
STANDING ADVANCES TO 44.730 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE.OF $1.45
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS JULY 23 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.74 PTS OR 0.25%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 258.40 PTS OR 0.39%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 258.40 PTS OR 0.39%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.71%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7703
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7709 Oil UP TO 89.76 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 97.36 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7703) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7709 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED CONTRACTS TO 387,520 STILL WELL ABOVE ITS NEW LOW OF 326,052 OI SET JUNE 3, CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 345,705 SET (MAY 28) AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 353,490 SET MAY 27.. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 326,052 //JUNE 3 2026 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,450.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING/. IT SEEMS THAT MANY OF THE SPECULATORS THAT HAVE NOW CONTINUED AGAIN TO BE ON THE SHORT SIDE WITH BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE AND THESE GUYS WERE OBLITERATED YESTERDAY WHEN THE LONGS TENDERED FOR DELIVERY:
CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS JULY CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (7,222 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD (UP $73.30)
WE THUS HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES (7222 CONTRACTS), WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A FAIR CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE EQUATING TO 3070 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A 0 CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD. ON FRIDAY, BY FAR WE HAD THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK EVER ISSUED AT ONE TIME BEATING THE PREVIOUS SINGLE HIGHEST ISSUE BY ONE TONNE. THUS MAY 22 RECORDS THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 12.4416 TONNES. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THE THIRD ON MAY 18 , THEN MAY 21 OUR 4TH ISSUANCE AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY, OUR 5TH ISSUANCE. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH JUNE AND JULY
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS OR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES.
JUNE: 0 IN GOLD. THUS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IN GOLD ZERO NOTICES WERE FILED.
JULY 0
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO JUNE/JULY:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 146+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS, 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
JUNE: ZERO
JULY 0
DETAILS ON OUR NEW JULY COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7222 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE ($73.30). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE/JULY CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A FAIR SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1000 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS.
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND NOW MAY WITH ITS 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 12.4436 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 24.635 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12, MAY 18 MAY 21 AND NOW MAY 22..
JUNE: ZERO FOR THE MONTH
JULY: ZERO SO FAR
WE MUST ALSO REMEMBER THAT THE FRBNY IS SHORT 146+ TONNES OF GOLD, THIS COMMENCED ON JAN 2 2023 AS THEY REFUSE TO COVER DESPITE THE BIS’S PLEA TO DO SO.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING FINALIZES AT 157.879 TONNES, ITS HIGHEST STANDING RECORDED IN OVER 4 YEARS.
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 34,500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNESS
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE SUBTRACT AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES// TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH FINALIZES AT 62.4217 TONNES OR AVERAGING 3.285 TONNES PER DAY IN JUNE.
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 749,300 OZ OR 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.23706 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 40.056 TONNES. TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING SO FAR: 16.809 TONNES OR 1.050 TONNES ON EACH TRADING DAY LEAVING COMEX FOR EASTERN SHORES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING JULY,. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $73.30)
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT//THURSDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING //THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $73.30
WE HAD XXX CONTRACTS REMOVED TO OUR OI AT THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7222 CONTRACTS OR 722,200 OZ (22.463 TONNES)
JULY DELIVERY MONTH
JULY 23
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | XXX ENTRY i) |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | X ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold ENTRIES: X xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 85 CONTRACTS OR 8500 OZ 0.2643 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 16 Contracts 1600 OZ 0.0497 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 12,862 notices 1,286,200 OZ 40.00 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: XX
XX ENTRY
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
ENTRIES: XX
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawal
XX ENTRY
adjustments:
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF JULY OI STANDS AT 101 CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 219 CONTRACTS. WE HAD A GAIN IN OZ STANDING OF 70 CONTRACTS FOR 7000 OZ OR 0.2177 TONNES, ANOTHER QUEUE JUMP AS CENTRAL BANKS CONTINUE TO TAKE PHYSICAL GOLD OUT OF THE COMEX!!
AUGUST LOST 9145 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 193,009
SEPTEMBER GAINED 181 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 2503.
.
We had 85 contracts filed for today representing 8500 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 85 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 3 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JULY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (12,862) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (XXX CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 85 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,287,800 OZ OR (40.056 Tonnes of gold)
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for JULY. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (12,862) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY( XXX) contracts minus the number of notices served upon today 85 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,287,800 OZ OR (40.056Tonnes of gold)
Yesterday’s standing: 39.828 tonnes//today: 40.056tonnes// (queue jump = 0.22706 tonnes)
new total of gold standing in JULY becomes 40.056 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JULY 40.056TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW REALLY HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.
confirmed volume TUESDAY confirmed 153,850/ poor// many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,825,758.183 oz 56.788 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,825,758.183tonnes oz 56.788 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 27,069,413.951oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 14,845,195.681 tonnes (461.748tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 12,224,218.270 oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,019,437 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
404.959 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
JULY DELIVERY MONTH
JULY 23
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | X entries |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | ENTRY:X |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | ENTRY: X |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 295 CONTRACT(S) ( 1.476 MILLION OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 7 Contracts (35,000 oz) OR .035 MILLION |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 9139 contracts 45.695 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
ENTRY:X
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
ENTRY: X
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
0 entries
adjustments :0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 96.340 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 330.327 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2026 OI: 302 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 1162 CONTRACTS.
STANDING FOR SILVER TODAY IS REPRESENTED BY 44.730 MILLION OZ. YESTERDAY’S STANDING: 44.500 MILLION OZ. THUS WE GAINED 46 CONTRACTS OR A STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 230,000 OZ WHERE THESE GUYS WILL TRY AND STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
AUGUST SAW A LOSS OF 41 CONTRACTS UP TO 1964…
SEPTEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 890 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 82,102 CONTRACTS
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 295 or 1.475 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume WEDNESDAY; 43,149// extremely poor//
XXX
AND NOW JULY. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 9139 X5,000 oz = 45.695 MILLION oz.
We now take the total number of oz standing today and subtract the total standing yesterday and we have a GAIN of 46 contracts for 0.230 MILLION oz and this represents a strong queue jump.
YESTERDAY: 44.500 MILLION OZ//STOOD FOR DELIVERY// TODAY 44.730 MILLION OZ// THUS A STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 46 CONTRACTS OR 0.230 MILLION OZ
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY 2026 contract month: (9139 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY ( 302) minus number of notices served upon today (295)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the JULY..contract month equating to 44.730 MILLION OZ. ( a very strong delivery month)
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 96.340 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 137.898/330.327million: 41.81%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD//WILL PICK UP DATA ON GLD ON TUESDAY
JULY 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $98,40 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1007.87 TONNES
JULY 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP $73.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES
JULY 21/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.40 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.572 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.45 TONNES
JULY 20/2026/WITH GOLD UP $59.75 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.860 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1003.59 TONNES
JULY 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $26.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.572 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.878 TONNES
JULY 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $110.60 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.45 TONNES
JULY 15/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 1.94 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.45 TONNES
JULY 14/2026/WITH GOLD UP $63.45 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : / //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.510 TONNES
JULY 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $105.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.108 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.510 TONNES
JULY 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT 0F 3.138TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.618 TONNES
JULY 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $58.60 /SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.510 TONNES
JULY 8/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.30 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.79 TONNES
JULY 7/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.42 TONNES OUT INTO THE GLD/ ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.79 TONNES
JULY 6 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.954 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD/ ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.366 TONNES
JULY 3 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $62.95 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JULY 2 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $44,05 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JULY 1 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.95 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JUNE 30 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $2.85 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JUNE 29 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $58.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.223 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD // ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JUNE 26 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $49.10 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.287 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD // ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.350 TONNES
JUNE 25 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.637 TONNES
JUNE 24 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $141.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.563 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/./ //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.637 TONNES
JUNE 19 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $36.85 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.421 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/./ //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1020.49 TONNES
JUNE 18 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $135.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.856 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/./ //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.069 TONNES
JUNE 17 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $20.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.427 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/./ //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1012.213 TONNES
JUNE 16 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 15 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $111.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 12 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $123.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 11 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.855 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 10 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $153.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.426 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.495 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1005.87 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.18 :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSITOF 0.723 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.413MILLION OZ
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.45: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.217 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.690 MILLION OZ
JULY 21 WITH SILVER UP $1.89: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.217 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.961 MILLION OZ
JULY 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.97: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 2.17 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.232 MILLION OZ
JULY 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.25: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 1.175 MILLION OZ// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.062 MILLION OZ
JULY 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.48: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.887 MILLION OZ
JULY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.52: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 3.30 MILLLION OZ OZ INTO THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.887 MILLION OZ
JULY 14 WITH SILVER UP $1.18: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 543,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 477,587 MILLION OZ
JULY 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.07: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.130 MILLION OZ
JULY 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.67: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.904 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.130 MILLION OZ
JULY 9 WITH SILVER UP $2.64: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.497 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.531 MILLION OZ
JULY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.70: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.497 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.531 MILLION OZ
JULY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.36: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.266 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.034 MILLION OZ
JULY 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.300 MILLION OZ
JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.81: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ INTO THE SLV.// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.360 MILLION OZ
JULY 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.58: : NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.360 MILLION OZ
JULY 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.48: : SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.233 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.360 MILLION OZ
JUNE 30 WITH SILVER UP $1.35: : HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.447 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.127 MILLION OZ
JUNE 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08: : HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.402 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.574 MILLION OZ
JUNE 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.86: : HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.352 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.976 MILLION OZ
JUNE 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.69: : SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 769,000 OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.624 MILLION OZ
JUNE 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.18: : SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 93,000 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.393 MILLION OZ
JUNE 19 WITH SILVER UP $1.11: : NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.302 MILLION OZ
JUNE 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.80: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.086 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV././ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.302 MILLION OZ
JUNE 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.79: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.388 MILLION OZ
JUNE 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.362 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.388 MILLION OZ
JUNE 15 WITH SILVER UP $3.25: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.357 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.026 MILLION OZ
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $3.34: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.769 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.383 MILLION OZ
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.226 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.152 MILLION OZ
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.50: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.909 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.378 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 484.413 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT; 281 AND 279
VAULT 281//MUST VIEW
Central Bank Wars: Fortress China Targets LBMA
by Kinesis Money
Thursday, Jul 16, 2026 – 11:03
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire details how China’s launch of the Hong Kong SGE gold gateway marks a historic shift in global gold pricing, as Beijing moves to challenge London and New York’s long-held grip on the market.
With the PBOC systematically draining Western gold reserves and central banks accelerating their shift away from dollar holdings, the precious metals expert outlines why he sees a US Treasury gold revaluation as no longer a distant prospect.
279
282 ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
END
5. COMMODITY REPORT/ALL COMMODITIES//MUST VIEW…
RBC Commodities Chief Warns “War Entering Dangerous Phase” As Chokepoint Chaos Risks Oil Above 2008 Peak
Thursday, Jul 23, 2026 – 07:20 AM
Brent crude futures rose nearly 5% to the mid-$98-a-barrel range after tanker attacks near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait threatened another critical maritime chokepoint as the Strait of Hormuz remained partially disrupted. Tankers are again turning away from the southern Red Sea, reversing a recovery in traffic following the 2023 disruptions.
On Wednesday night, we reported that Houthi militants targeted two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea, escalating the Gulf area conflict and threatening deeper energy supply disruptions – which spiked Brent above $95 in post-settlement trading.
Iran’s key proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, pose a direct threat to regional energy flows, while Saudi Arabia signaled it will respond forcefully to any attacks on its tankers or land-based energy assets. By early Thursday, the added war risk premium sent Brent crude to $98.70.
Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, warned clients earlier today that “war enters a dangerous phase with the Red Sea and critical infrastructure at risk.”
Croft continued:
While Brent prices have risen over 30% since July 1, we still see them as a lagging indicator of the extreme pressure building in the region. Given the dangerous escalation currently unfolding, we remain of the view that oil prices could potentially take out the Russia/Ukraine oil price highs of $128/bbl in 2022 or even the 2008 peak of $146/bbl, especially in the worst-case scenario of a full regional war.
The Houthi entry into the conflict has the potential to expand the war’s supply losses by reducing the effectiveness of the East-West pipeline offset route. With the Houthis indicating that they targeted two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, we think a sustained deployment of force would cause a material reduction in total Red Sea oil flows. It could also shift the sentiment of “the market always finds a workaround” camp.
On Monday, Goldman commodities expert Daan Struyven warned that Brent crude futures could surge above $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if disruptions in the Hormuz maritime chokepoint persist. He noted, however, that such an outcome is not his base case.
The big risk now is that the Hormuz disruption is unfolding after global oil buffers have already been depleted, with Cushing inventories reportedly near “tank bottoms.” This leaves the market with limited spare capacity to absorb a prolonged supply shock and will likely increase pressure on the Trump administration to revive diplomacy once the US military has sufficiently degraded Tehran’s missile and drone capabilities used to threaten commercial shipping through the strait.
The US national average for regular gasoline breached $4 a gallon on Monday, intensifying pressure on the Trump administration to pursue Gulf diplomacy.
Gas prices may go higher…
Saudi Arabia has offset some disruption from the Strait of Hormuz closure by rerouting crude through its 7 million-barrel-a-day East-West pipeline. However, if Bab el-Mandeb becomes impassable, Asia-bound tankers would be forced around the Cape of Good Hope, raising freight costs, delaying deliveries by weeks, and further tightening the physical market.
Simultaneous disruption would therefore put roughly one-fifth of global oil supply directly at risk through Hormuz, while disrupting or delaying as much as another 8 million to 9 million barrels a day that normally transits the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint.
Next Read: “Goldman Warns Brent Could Top $120 If Gulf Chokepoint Crisis Deepens.”
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.74 PTS OR 0.25%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 258.40 PTS OR 0.39%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 258.40 PTS OR 0.39%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.71%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7703
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7709 Oil UP TO 89.76 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 97.36 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7703) OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7709 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 6.7703
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.7709
1.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 258.40 PTS OR 0.39%
2. Nikkei closed UP 258.40 PTS OR 0.39%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 89.76
BRENT; 97.36
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 100.89/// EURO RISES TO 1.1425 UP 13 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.774 UP 3 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 163.30… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.918 UP 3 FULL BASIS PT
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP( 6.7703) AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.7709
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA. CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. GOVERMENT ASKED JAPAN PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE FUNDS TO BUY MORE JAPANESE BONDS AND REPATRIATE ALL FOREIGN BONDS.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EU German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +3.2015/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP AT 4.048/ SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.669%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.941%
3j Gold at $4092.00 //Silver at: 58.81 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 44/ 100 roubles/78.41
3m oil (WTI) into the 89 dollar handle for WTI and 97 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 163.30 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.774% UP 3 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS TO BE REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.914 UP 4 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.8147 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9308
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.674 UP 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.161 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.317 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 47.24 UP 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.0830 UP 5 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.775 UP 4 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.592 UP 3 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.2110 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
Futures Slide After Google Earnings, Oil & Bond Yields Jump On Houthi Escalation
Thursday, Jul 23, 2026 – 08:05 AM
US equity futures are lower as WTI breaches $90/bbl and Brent approaches $100/bbl (Houthi escalation in the Red Sea as two Saudi tankers were struck), pushing bond yields higher with longer-dated yields seen making new highs, globally. But, Alphabet’s underwhelming results – while dragging down Mag7 names – are boosting Semis / AI (CapEx spend) which may mean the market is returning to its barbell of longs in AI / Semis plus Energy versus shorts in Rate-sensitives.
* * *
Overnight saw oil prices extend their recent resurgence with WTI crude topping $90/bbl. The Iran-aligned Houthis said they targeted two oil tankers in the Red Sea, potentially opening up another front in the war.
US forces struck Iranian military targets including maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites, and air defense assets, Centcom said.
Commodities are led by the Energy complex; Base is higher, Precious is lower, and Ags mixed.
Pre-mkt, US yields are up 3-4bps across the curve with USD flat.
The surge in crude prices has dragged rate-hike odds higher (July very much back on the table)…
In Equities, Mag7 is weaker with all 7 names lower with GOOGL, TXN, TSLA, and IBM all lower following earnings.
Semis / Memory are bid. Defensives and Energy are higher with Cyclicals mostly lower ex-Industrials which are being boosted as part of the AI theme.
Utils are bid with AI outweighing higher yields.
European stocks fall as technology shares are dragged lower by STMicroelectronics, which slumped 17% after disappointing with its sales outlook.
Elsewhere, Nestle posted its biggest intraday drop since 2020.
Stoxx 600 falls 0.6% to 642.78 with 405 members down, 184 up, and 11 unchanged.
Asian shares rose as sentiment improved on expectations that regional tech hardware companies will benefit from Alphabet’s plans for more AI spending.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.4%, led by Samsung and SK Hynix.
A Bloomberg gauge of Asian chip shares advanced as much as 1.7%, extending its gains for a third session after tipping into a bear market last week.
Gains in artificial intelligence and semiconductor shares pushed the benchmarks in South Korea and Japan higher.
Thursday’s moves across Asian markets reflect investors’ willingness to prioritize AI enthusiasm, earnings and capital spending plans in the short-term over geopolitical tensions that linger, primarily from the Middle East.
Top Overnight News
- The ECB is expected to maintain interest rates at 2.25% today, buying time to assess the fallout from renewed Middle East hostilities.
- A rally in Indonesian stocks put the nation’s benchmark index on track for a bull market, helped by a rotation into market laggards as well as a recent credit-rating announcement.
- The oil price has risen above $98 a barrel for the first time since early June after Iran-backed Houthi militants said they had attacked two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea.
- The U.S. is surging forces, medics and weaponry to the Middle East to give President Trump more muscular military options as he considers expanding the conflict against Iran, according to people familiar with the matter.
- The U.S. military used a B-1 long-range bomber on Tuesday to strike Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in Iran, U.S. officials said. It was the first time the U.S. conducted a B-1 mission since fighting with Iran resumed 12 days ago.
- Russia is set to receive a shipment of fuel from India, as Moscow is forced to import petrol after Ukrainian drone attacks destroyed parts of its major refineries.
- A rare surge in Latin American currencies is squeezing exporters by reducing the value of US dollar-denominated revenue. Coffee growers, banana producers and manufacturers face shrinking margins despite stronger investor confidence.
- Allies of Donald Trump have discussed whether an external review of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse might justify removing Fed Governor Michael Barr over his role overseeing bank supervision at the time, people familiar said.
- Private equity takeovers of software groups are at a turning point as investors hunt for bargains among companies at risk of being disrupted by AI.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.6%) started Thursday’s busy earnings day in the red, with higher energy prices and disappointing earnings weighing on indices. On the geopolitical front, the US and Iran exchanged strikes for the 12th consecutive night, while US President Trump said Iran is getting hit so hard and that they want to make a deal. Additionally, Yemeni Houthis targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, while reports noted that at least 9 ships have stopped passing through Bab al-Mandeb, following the blockade on Saudi ports by Houthis.
- Sectors highlight the negative bias. Energy (+1.6%) tops the sector pile, with Real Estate (+0.8%) also printing decent gains. Food, Beverages & Tobacco (-2.9%) is the sector laggard, following Nestle earnings in which RIG missed estimates. Consumer Products & Services (-2.0%) and Travel & Leisure (-1.5%) rounds out the key underperformers.
- A lot of big European earnings this morning, with focus concentrated on STMicroelectronics figures. Its Q2 metrics beat estimates; however, its guidance and commentary have driven the biggest drop in shares since October 2025 (-13.8%). The Co. guided Q3 net revenue of “about” USD 3.7bln, which missed analysts’ expectations, and raised its revenue ambition for data centres due to continued strong demand. Citi analysts say that shares already reflect a recovery across its end markets and acceleration in revenue from data centres. Additionally, analysts say that shares may struggle in the near-term.
- US equity futures are softer across the board, with downside in tech-heavy NQ weighed on by STMicroelectronics earnings. Mag-7 earnings kicked off yesterday after the bell, with Alphabet and Tesla reporting Q2 metrics. For GOOGL (-3.9% pre-market), it sharply raised its AI capex forecast (which benefited Asia-Pac chip names overnight). For TSLA (-5.6% pre-market), Q2 figures disappointed, as adj. EPS missed estimates.
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 9.11 (exp. 2.88), Revenue 119.8bln (exp. 117.00bln), Operating income 40.77bln (exp. 40.55bln), Capex 44.92bln (exp. 44.15bln). Raises FY26 capex view to USD 195bln-205bln (prev. 180bln-190bln).
- Tesla Inc. (TSLA) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.33 (exp. 0.52), Revenue 28.2bln (exp. 25.99bln), Gross margin 16.8% (exp. 19.4%), Automotive revenue 20.52bln (exp. 18.68bln).
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
FX
- G10s are mixed after initial losses for the Greenback were reversed as energy prices continue to determine bias. Action which has benefitted energy exporters CAD and NOK, the sole currencies firmer against the Buck.
- USD erased earlier modest losses as energy lifted to session highs with the Brent Sept’26 contract approaching levels not seen since May. Geopolitics remains constructive for the Buck, and there are no signs of immediate de-escalation – focus on Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian vessels alongside flows through Bab al-Mandeb. Elsewhere, US earnings after the NY close were received poorly, with Google and Tesla slipping between 3-5% premarket, hitting indices and potentially increasing appetite for the Buck’s haven status. DXY rose from beneath the 21DMA @101, to mark a high at recent resistance near 101.20/1.
- EUR is lacklustre against the Buck ahead of the ECB meeting, where just 4bps of tightening is implied by markets. The Governing Council is likely to convey a hawkish message after the recent energy pressures. Should the bank stand pat on rates as analysts/markets expect, focus will be on guidance which could spur a move above two fully priced 25bp hikes by year-end. EUR/USD is well off highs made early in the domestic session, though found support towards 1.14. ING says this morning its near-term bias is tilted to the downside, noting if Gulf newsflow lacks signs of de-escalation, it looks for the pair to slip towards 1.1380 in the coming days.
- AUD is resilient against the Buck after strong jobs numbers overnight. The data saw headline Employment Change smash estimates at 76.3k (exp. 15k), and the Unemployment Rate remained at 4.4% despite higher Participation. It appears NZD is used as a funder to express AUD hawkishness given USD swings on geopolitics, with AUD/NZD +0.4%, while AUD/USD is flat.
- TRY looks to the CBRT meeting, where analysts have shifted calls for easing in exchange for a hold amid the recent energy pressures. Turkish inflation eased to 32.1% Y/Y in June from 32.6% in May, as energy prices fell following the US-Iran MoU, which has since broken down. Despite the softer print, most analysts still forecast year-end inflation above the CBRT’s 26% target (incl. GS, MUFG at 30%), suggesting rates will remain higher for longer, particularly after the recent resurgence in Gulf tensions. Banks mostly expect the bank to stand pat on its key rate; HSBC said it could instead adjust its funding policy, lowering the average funding cost for commercial banks without formally changing the policy rate; JPMorgan expects the CBRT to resume one-week repo auctions, while Garanti BBVA, which recently shifted its call, expects a hold, but does not rule out easing. USD/TRY is lacklustre ahead of the decision.
FIXED INCOME
- A bearish start for fixed income as energy climbed overnight and into the European morning after the 12th consecutive evening of action by the US in the Middle East. Action that has taken Brent above USD 98/bbl and weighed on global yields.
- Overnight, JGBs reacted to the above and also a Reuters source report from Wednesday that the BoJ is alert to inflationary risks that could result in tightening taking place faster than the market is pricing. JGBs down to a 127.04 base, lower by just over 20 ticks.
- USTs hold at a 108-09 low, with downside of just a few ticks on the day. Today’s docket features weekly claims (initial claims coincide with the BLS survey window), before a 10yr TIPS auction and the latest Chicago Fed.
- Bunds under pressure as above, down to a 124.17 base at worst but currently holding around 15 ticks clear of that but still lower by over 20 ticks on the day. Action that has pushed the 10yr yield to a 3.2% peak, just above May’s best to a new YTD high, a dynamic that is also reflected at the short-end, where the 2yr has notched a new YTD peak of 2.88%.
- Energy has driven much of this, but the short-end is also likely being spurred further by the associated implications for the ECB. While a hold is the base case today, the accompanying guidance may well be more hawkish and explicit than the usual no-signal, data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach we have become accustomed to. Note, given the moves in recent days, more hawkish guidance may only spark a modest hawkish reaction, while a reiteration of the above non-committal language could see a relatively more pronounced dovish move. However, again, any such reaction would likely be limited in nature as geopolitics and, by extension, energy dictate the narrative.
- Gilts opened lower and underperformed, in the typical action seen when energy is bid. Opened with losses of 15 ticks and then slipped to an 86.07 base, just above the 86.03 low from April but some way clear of May’s 84.98 contract trough. No real reaction to commentary from UK Chancellor Healey this morning, who stuck with familiar language. The day ahead for UK rates may take direction from the ECB as outlined above, as any hawkish nod from Europe would be in contrast to the on hold for the foreseeable narrative which remains around the BoE, despite the dissenters and clearly contrasting views on Threadneedle Street.
COMMODITIES
- Middle Eastern geopolitics continues to dominate price action, with the US and Iran exchanging strikes for the 12th consecutive night, whilst US President Trump said Iran is getting hit so hard and that they want to make a deal. He added that Iran will be ready very soon but is not ready for a deal yet. Hostilities across the region have also expanded, as Yemeni Houthis targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, while reports noted that at least 9 ships have stopped passing through Bab al-Mandeb, following the blockade on Saudi ports by Houthis. On that note, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry, on the Yemeni Houthi threat, said, “If our ships are attacked, it will be treated as an attack on Pakistan, and we will retaliate”. As a reminder, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defence pact in September 2025. The treaty states that an attack on one nation is considered an attack on both. If the Houthis launch severe ballistic missile strikes on Saudi territory or fully disrupt its vital energy exports, Riyadh could formally trigger this pact. This could further complicate the picture as Pakistan is the main mediator in US-Iran talks. Further on this front, Pakistani PM Sharif held a call with Saudi Crown Prince MBS; the two condemned the Houthi militia’s attacks against Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea; and reaffirmed Pakistan’s “complete solidarity” with Saudi Arabia. Elsewhere, reports noted the sound of an explosion was heard in Qatar and Jordan, whilst an explosion was also heard in Iran around Qeshm city near Konarak. Elsewhere in geopolitics, US Secretary of State Rubio said he had a good and frank conversation with the Russian Foreign Minister; the US is prepared to take a constructive role to end the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, EU Ambassadors have reached a political agreement on the 21st sanctions package against Russia, according to diplomats; additionally, the bloc is to freeze the oil price cap for a 12-month period.
- WTI and Brent futures at session highs. WTI Sep’26 trades beyond the USD 90/bbl mark, currently at the top end of its USD 87.32-90.35/bbl range. Brent Sep’26 resides near USD 98.50/bbl in a USD 94.89-98.75/bbl range. Dutch TTF prices have waned after hitting resistance near EUR 64/MWh before dipping sub-62.50/MWh. This morning, sources reported that buyers of LNG from Qatar and the UAE are seeking lower prices and stronger supply guarantees as risks to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increase.
- Precious metals are softer as rising oil prices once again hit by the rising oil prices. Spot gold trades in a USD 4,087-4,141/oz range, within yesterday’s USD 4,076-4,166/oz range. Spot silver briefly dipped under yesterday’s 58.73/oz low to currently trade towards the bottom end of a USD 58.66-60.07/oz range.
- Base metals are mostly lower amid the inflationary impact of higher oil prices. 3M LME copper trades towards the lower end of a USD 13,709.00-13,873.70/t range.
- Buyers of LNG from Qatar and the UAE are seeking lower prices and stronger supply guarantees as risks to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increase, according to sources.
- Kazakhstan’s daily oil production fell after loading operations were suspended at the CPC export terminal on the Black Sea, sources say, output down 21% on Wednesday vs July average
TRADE/TARIFFS
- China’s MOFCOM said China and the US are working towards the tariff cut plan; to maintain close communication.
- UAE Foreign Trade Minister said imports of high-end US AI chips expected soon, Bloomberg reported.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- The UK PM announced that pubs, clubs and live music venues are set to receive a 20% cut to their business rates bills, saving the typical pub an estimated GBP 1,100/yr.
- UK Chancellor Healey said he is as concerned about the cost of business as the cost of living.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump said the government will face a shutdown in September.
- Some Trump admin officials and allies have privately discussed whether an external review of the 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank could provide a legal basis to remove Fed Governor Barr, according to Bloomberg.
- US is investigating Chinese AI firm Moonshot over chip access, with the BIS probing if the Co. used US chips for model training, according to The Information.
- Trump admin is reportedly divided about restricting Chinese AI models, with the White House mulling preventing Chinese labs from distilling US models, and Commerce Department favours incentivising US companies to develop open models to counter China
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran was intending to double missile stockpile and that it looks like Iran is not ready to make a deal. He added that the price on Iran will get higher every night until they come to their senses but that Iran is begging to reach a deal.
- US CENTCOM said the US completed the 12th consecutive night of strikes against Iran, in which the US struck Iranian military targets including maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, surveillance sites and defence assets.
- US military has started using B-1 long-range bombers in its strikes against Iran, according to i24’s Stein citing a source that stated the first strike using the bomber was conducted on Tuesday.
- A senior US official said negotiations continue but the decisive moment for expanding hostilities is rapidly approaching, N12 reported.
- There were several explosions heard in Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan while sirens were sounded in Bahrain. In Iran, explosions were heard in Bushehr, Bandar Mahshahr, Sirik, Konarak City and Ramshir. Additionally, Iranian media reported that a power station was hit by a missile near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the south of the country, according to Sky News Arabia.
- IRGC said one of three offending ships attempting to pass the Strait of Hormuz caught fire and the other two quickly turned back, while it also targeted US bases in Jordan, and declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Additionally, the IRGC said it targeted US military in Kuwait’s Al-Adiri camp and Ali Al-Salem Airbase.
- Yemen’s Houthis announced they targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. In other reports, at least 9 ships have stopped passing through Bab al-Mandeb, following the blockade on Saudi ports by Houthis.
- Two Chinese supertankers carrying Saudi crude are heading to Bab al-Mandeb, according to reports citing data.
- Pakistani PM Sharif held a call with Saudi Crown Prince MBS. The two condemned the Houthi militia’s attacks against Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and reaffirmed Pakistan’s “complete solidarity” with Saudi Arabia.
- Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, on US-Iran talks, said they can not confirm 10-15 days or anything because these are confidential communications but they have not lost hope even during the darkest days of this escalation cycle.
- Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry, on the Yemeni Houthi threat, said that if Pakistani ships are attacked, it will be treated as an attack on Pakistan and will retaliate.
- UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 70NM of Al-Shuqaiq, Saudi Arabia, with a tanker reported to have been struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire on board.
- Oman’s Foreign Ministry said it is working with Saudi Arabia and Yemeni parties and the UN special envoy to resume the political process aimed at achieving regional security and stability.
- The US is on course to get no new military spending before the election and they are warning it could be a huge problem for them amidst the war with Iran, according to Semafor.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US Secretary of State Rubio said he had a good and frank conversation with the Russian Foreign Minister and the US is prepared to take a constructive role to end the war in Ukraine.
- Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov confirmed that Russia is prepared to resolve the conflict in Ukraine through political and diplomatic means, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry.
- EU Ambassadors have reached a political agreement on the 21st sanctions package against Russian, according to diplomats. Additionally, to freeze the oil price cap for a 12 month period.
OTHER
- China is conducting live fire, military drills in some areas of the Taiwan Strait on Thursday and Friday.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin continues to pare back Tuesday’s gains but remains firmly above the USD 65k mark.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as semiconductor strength helped the region shrug off the lacklustre lead from Wall Street and the widening geopolitical escalation in the Middle East.
- ASX 200 was lifted amid outperformance in the commodity-related and materials sectors, while sentiment was also helped by strong jobs data.
- Nikkei 225 rallied at the open but is well off today’s best levels amid higher oil prices and after hitting resistance around the 67,000 level.
- KOSPI remained driven by semiconductor advances with both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the green, while chaebols dominated the list of biggest gainers and participants also digested stronger-than-expected South Korean GDP data.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed, with Hong Kong led higher by strength in mining names, while the mainland was lacklustre as trade-related frictions lingered, with the US investigating Chinese AI firm Moonshot over chip access and whether the Co. used US chips for model training.
Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Inflation has remained top of the agenda for markets this morning, with Brent crude moving up to almost $96/bbl overnight as the Middle East escalation continues. Indeed, the strikes between the US and Iran show no sign of easing, and the Houthis said they targeted two oil tankers in the Red Sea yesterday, raising fears that the conflict is widening. So that’s pushed oil prices up to a 7-week high, and has also fuelled speculation about more rate hikes. For instance, futures are currently pricing in a 36% probability of a Fed rate hike as soon as next week, and bond yields jumped as well, with the US 30yr real yield (+0.4bps) closing at a post-2008 high of 2.93% yesterday. So it was a tough backdrop, and equities struggled to gain traction too, with the S&P 500 down -0.14% yesterday, whilst futures are down another -0.13% this morning following earnings from Alphabet and Tesla.
We’ll start with the geopolitics, as the US-Iran conflict has shown no sign of easing, and there’s still no indication of any emerging peace deal either. In fact, President Trump posted yesterday that if Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, then the US would “bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT”. And shortly after, Trump said in person that Iran would pay a big price after US troops were killed, whilst Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi posted that aggression against Iran “will compel a powerful and decisive response”, and that those “who contribute to such aggression, whatever the kind of support, will also be considered as legitimate targets”. Overnight, US Central Command confirmed that they’d completed another round of strikes against Iran, whilst oil markets have come under fresh pressure given the news about the Houthis targeting two oil tankers in the Red Sea. So that’s raised fresh supply fears given Saudi Arabia has redirected oil exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
That backdrop drove a fresh jump in commodity prices, with oil prices continuing to move higher. So Brent crude jumped +3.36% to $94.07/bbl by yesterday’s close, and is up a further +1.96% this morning to $95.94/bbl. Moreover, investors also priced in a longer period of high oil prices, and the 6-month Brent future (+0.59%) hit a one-month high of $81.74/bbl yesterday as well. And elsewhere, the energy shock was extending beyond oil prices, with European natural gas futures (+4.82%) exceeding their recent high back in March yesterday, closing at levels last seen in early 2023, at €62.54/MWh.
The latest rise in energy prices led to fresh concerns about a more prolonged stagflationary shock, with investors pricing in more inflation as a result. In fact, the 1yr Euro inflation swap (+4.7bps) was up for an 8th consecutive day to 2.64%, whilst the 1yr US inflation swap (+1.2bps) also rose to 2.05%. Unsurprisingly, that also saw investors price in a more hawkish path for central banks. So Fed futures are now pricing in a 36% chance of a rate hike next week, having now unwound most of the moves after the downside CPI surprise last week. And over in Europe, investors are now pricing in 48bps of further hikes by year-end, on top of the 25bps we had last month. Indeed, that’s the most hawkish path priced for the ECB in the last couple of months.
With markets expecting more inflation and more rate hikes, that meant sovereign bonds took a fresh hit on both sides of the Atlantic as well. So US Treasury yields moved higher, with the 2yr yield (+3.5bps) up to 4.30%, its highest since February 2025, whilst the 10yr yield (+2.7bps) hit its highest since May, at 4.66%. In addition, there were some fresh milestones for real yields, with the 2yr real yield (+3.0bps) up to its highest since September 2024, at 2.34%, whilst the 10yr real yield (+1.6bps) hit its highest since October 2023, at 2.36%. Over in Europe there were more marginal increases, but yields on 10yr bunds (+0.7bps), OATs (+0.6bps) and BTPs (+0.8bps) all moved higher as well.
As all that was happening, equities have put in a much more mixed performance over the last 24 hours. In the US the tone has been more negative, with the S&P 500 down -0.14%. But in other regions things have been much more positive, and overnight we’ve seen the KOSPI (+3.98%), the Hang Seng (+1.34%) and the Nikkei (+0.52%) all advance. The main exception has been in mainland China, where the CSI 300 (-0.20%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.19%) are both lower. But the European indices put in a solid performance as well yesterday, with the STOXX 600 up +0.58%.
US equity futures have continued to lose ground overnight following Alphabet and Tesla’s earnings after the US close. Alphabet delivered a solid earnings and revenue beat, reporting 82% yoy growth in cloud revenue in Q2 ($24.8bn vs $22.5bn est.). But its shares fell by over -3% in after-hours trading as the company increased its 2026 capex plan to a range of $195-205bn (vs. $186bn est.). And Tesla fell by over -4% after-hours after the company reported its first negative quarter of free cash flows in over two years, as solid auto sales were outweighed by a 47% yoy surge in operating costs. So futures on the S&P 500 are down another -0.13% this morning.
In general however, the equity picture has been pretty resilient over the last 24 hours, despite the latest uptick in oil prices, with fresh gains in Asia overnight. That might seem striking, but we’ve written before (link here) how oil prices beneath $100/bbl haven’t been enough to cause a meaningful dent in risk assets. Indeed, if you look earlier in the year, it wasn’t until they got to around $110/bbl that you saw meaningful vulnerabilities for equities and credit. Likewise, back in the 2022 energy shock, it was a similar real-terms threshold for Brent (above $110/bbl in today’s prices) that started to cause meaningful stress, which we’re still some way from right now. So for now at least, the current pattern is still consistent with what we saw earlier in the year.
Elsewhere in Asia, the yen did briefly strengthen yesterday after a Bloomberg report said that BoJ officials were open to faster rate hikes than the consensus expected. According to the report, it said officials were aware of expectations for hikes roughly every six months, but they were open to earlier moves instead. Moreover, the article said there were signs of inflation becoming more entrenched, whilst the yen’s decline meant there were further inflationary pressures. Those gains were then pared back, and this morning the yen is still trading at 163.06 per US dollar. However, front-end yields have continued to climb, with Japan’s 2yr yield (+2.5bps) at a post-1995 high of 1.48% this morning.
Otherwise overnight, the Australian dollar has strengthened +0.28% against the US dollar after the latest employment data for June led to mounting expectations of another RBA rate hike this year. The data showed employment up by +76.3k in June (vs. +15.0k expected), which was the biggest monthly jump in 14 months.
Looking forward, today’s main highlight will be the ECB’s policy decision at 13:15 London time. It’s widely expected they’ll keep rates on hold, after hiking at the last meeting in June. But given the latest surge in oil and gas prices, the focus will be on what they signal ahead, with markets pricing almost two further hikes by year-end. Our European economists think the ECB will maintain neutral communications in the press conference. So no explicit forward guidance, with an emphasis on a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach that avoids pre-committing to a specific path. However, they do think the ECB will convey a hawkish stance on inflation, consistent with another 25bp hike in September being highly probable. For more info, see their full ECB preview here.
Otherwise in Europe, UK gilts saw a very marginal outperformance after the June CPI data surprised on the downside. It showed headline inflation falling more than expected to +2.6% in June (vs. +2.7% expected). However, some of the details weren’t quite as dovish in their implications, with core CPI actually remaining at +2.6% (vs. +2.5% expected). So 10yr gilt yields were still up up +0.5bps on the day, only slightly beneath the +0.7bps increase for 10yr bunds.
Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be the ECB’s monetary policy decision and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. Otherwise, data releases include the US weekly initial jobless claims, and the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence indicator for the Euro Area in July. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Intel.
1b European Opening report
NQ underperforms amid STM, GOOGL weakness; AUD outperforms after strong jobs data, EUR looks to ECB – Newsquawk US Market Open
Thursday, Jul 23, 2026 – 05:48 AM
- US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran was intending to double missile stockpile and that it looks like Iran is not ready to make a deal. He added that the price on Iran will get higher every night until they come to their senses but that Iran is begging to reach a deal.
- Yemeni Houthis targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, while reports noted that at least 9 ships have stopped passing through Bab al-Mandeb, following the blockade on Saudi ports by Houthis.
- US equity futures are softer across the board as Alphabet raises AI Capex guidance and STMicroelectronics misses Q3 revenue guidance estimates.
- DXY rangebound, AUD outperforms after a strong jobs report.
- Fixed income lower but off worst levels as energy prices continue to drive price action (Brent +4.5%).
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales (May), US Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/18), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (Jul). Policy Announcements from the ECB, CBRT, and SARB. Comments from ECB President Lagarde. Supply from the US. Earnings from Intel, Blackstone, Lockheed Martin & SAP.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.6%) started Thursday’s busy earnings day in the red, with higher energy prices and disappointing earnings weighing on indices. On the geopolitical front, the US and Iran exchanged strikes for the 12th consecutive night, while US President Trump said Iran is getting hit so hard and that they want to make a deal. Additionally, Yemeni Houthis targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, while reports noted that at least 9 ships have stopped passing through Bab al-Mandeb, following the blockade on Saudi ports by Houthis.
- Sectors highlight the negative bias. Energy (+1.6%) tops the sector pile, with Real Estate (+0.8%) also printing decent gains. Food, Beverages & Tobacco (-2.9%) is the sector laggard, following Nestle earnings in which RIG missed estimates. Consumer Products & Services (-2.0%) and Travel & Leisure (-1.5%) rounds out the key underperformers.
- A lot of big European earnings this morning, with focus concentrated on STMicroelectronics figures. Its Q2 metrics beat estimates; however, its guidance and commentary have driven the biggest drop in shares since October 2025 (-13.8%). The Co. guided Q3 net revenue of “about” USD 3.7bln, which missed analysts’ expectations, and raised its revenue ambition for data centres due to continued strong demand. Citi analysts say that shares already reflect a recovery across its end markets and acceleration in revenue from data centres. Additionally, analysts say that shares may struggle in the near-term.
- US equity futures are softer across the board, with downside in tech-heavy NQ weighed on by STMicroelectronics earnings. Mag-7 earnings kicked off yesterday after the bell, with Alphabet and Tesla reporting Q2 metrics. For GOOGL (-3.9% pre-market), it sharply raised its AI capex forecast (which benefited Asia-Pac chip names overnight). For TSLA (-5.6% pre-market), Q2 figures disappointed, as adj. EPS missed estimates.
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 9.11 (exp. 2.88), Revenue 119.8bln (exp. 117.00bln), Operating income 40.77bln (exp. 40.55bln), Capex 44.92bln (exp. 44.15bln). Raises FY26 capex view to USD 195bln-205bln (prev. 180bln-190bln).
- Tesla Inc. (TSLA) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.33 (exp. 0.52), Revenue 28.2bln (exp. 25.99bln), Gross margin 16.8% (exp. 19.4%), Automotive revenue 20.52bln (exp. 18.68bln).
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
FX
- G10s are mixed after initial losses for the Greenback were reversed as energy prices continue to determine bias. Action which has benefitted energy exporters CAD and NOK, the sole currencies firmer against the Buck.
- USD erased earlier modest losses as energy lifted to session highs with the Brent Sept’26 contract approaching levels not seen since May. Geopolitics remains constructive for the Buck, and there are no signs of immediate de-escalation – focus on Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian vessels alongside flows through Bab al-Mandeb. Elsewhere, US earnings after the NY close were received poorly, with Google and Tesla slipping between 3-5% premarket, hitting indices and potentially increasing appetite for the Buck’s haven status. DXY rose from beneath the 21DMA @101, to mark a high at recent resistance near 101.20/1.
- EUR is lacklustre against the Buck ahead of the ECB meeting, where just 4bps of tightening is implied by markets. The Governing Council is likely to convey a hawkish message after the recent energy pressures. Should the bank stand pat on rates as analysts/markets expect, focus will be on guidance which could spur a move above two fully priced 25bp hikes by year-end. EUR/USD is well off highs made early in the domestic session, though found support towards 1.14. ING says this morning its near-term bias is tilted to the downside, noting if Gulf newsflow lacks signs of de-escalation, it looks for the pair to slip towards 1.1380 in the coming days.
- AUD is resilient against the Buck after strong jobs numbers overnight. The data saw headline Employment Change smash estimates at 76.3k (exp. 15k), and the Unemployment Rate remained at 4.4% despite higher Participation. It appears NZD is used as a funder to express AUD hawkishness given USD swings on geopolitics, with AUD/NZD +0.4%, while AUD/USD is flat.
- TRY looks to the CBRT meeting, where analysts have shifted calls for easing in exchange for a hold amid the recent energy pressures. Turkish inflation eased to 32.1% Y/Y in June from 32.6% in May, as energy prices fell following the US-Iran MoU, which has since broken down. Despite the softer print, most analysts still forecast year-end inflation above the CBRT’s 26% target (incl. GS, MUFG at 30%), suggesting rates will remain higher for longer, particularly after the recent resurgence in Gulf tensions. Banks mostly expect the bank to stand pat on its key rate; HSBC said it could instead adjust its funding policy, lowering the average funding cost for commercial banks without formally changing the policy rate; JPMorgan expects the CBRT to resume one-week repo auctions, while Garanti BBVA, which recently shifted its call, expects a hold, but does not rule out easing. USD/TRY is lacklustre ahead of the decision.
FIXED INCOME
- A bearish start for fixed income as energy climbed overnight and into the European morning after the 12th consecutive evening of action by the US in the Middle East. Action that has taken Brent above USD 98/bbl and weighed on global yields.
- Overnight, JGBs reacted to the above and also a Reuters source report from Wednesday that the BoJ is alert to inflationary risks that could result in tightening taking place faster than the market is pricing. JGBs down to a 127.04 base, lower by just over 20 ticks.
- USTs hold at a 108-09 low, with downside of just a few ticks on the day. Today’s docket features weekly claims (initial claims coincide with the BLS survey window), before a 10yr TIPS auction and the latest Chicago Fed.
- Bunds under pressure as above, down to a 124.17 base at worst but currently holding around 15 ticks clear of that but still lower by over 20 ticks on the day. Action that has pushed the 10yr yield to a 3.2% peak, just above May’s best to a new YTD high, a dynamic that is also reflected at the short-end, where the 2yr has notched a new YTD peak of 2.88%.
- Energy has driven much of this, but the short-end is also likely being spurred further by the associated implications for the ECB. While a hold is the base case today, the accompanying guidance may well be more hawkish and explicit than the usual no-signal, data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach we have become accustomed to. Note, given the moves in recent days, more hawkish guidance may only spark a modest hawkish reaction, while a reiteration of the above non-committal language could see a relatively more pronounced dovish move. However, again, any such reaction would likely be limited in nature as geopolitics and, by extension, energy dictate the narrative.
- Gilts opened lower and underperformed, in the typical action seen when energy is bid. Opened with losses of 15 ticks and then slipped to an 86.07 base, just above the 86.03 low from April but some way clear of May’s 84.98 contract trough. No real reaction to commentary from UK Chancellor Healey this morning, who stuck with familiar language. The day ahead for UK rates may take direction from the ECB as outlined above, as any hawkish nod from Europe would be in contrast to the on hold for the foreseeable narrative which remains around the BoE, despite the dissenters and clearly contrasting views on Threadneedle Street.
COMMODITIES
- Middle Eastern geopolitics continues to dominate price action, with the US and Iran exchanging strikes for the 12th consecutive night, whilst US President Trump said Iran is getting hit so hard and that they want to make a deal. He added that Iran will be ready very soon but is not ready for a deal yet. Hostilities across the region have also expanded, as Yemeni Houthis targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, while reports noted that at least 9 ships have stopped passing through Bab al-Mandeb, following the blockade on Saudi ports by Houthis. On that note, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry, on the Yemeni Houthi threat, said, “If our ships are attacked, it will be treated as an attack on Pakistan, and we will retaliate”. As a reminder, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defence pact in September 2025. The treaty states that an attack on one nation is considered an attack on both. If the Houthis launch severe ballistic missile strikes on Saudi territory or fully disrupt its vital energy exports, Riyadh could formally trigger this pact. This could further complicate the picture as Pakistan is the main mediator in US-Iran talks. Further on this front, Pakistani PM Sharif held a call with Saudi Crown Prince MBS; the two condemned the Houthi militia’s attacks against Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea; and reaffirmed Pakistan’s “complete solidarity” with Saudi Arabia. Elsewhere, reports noted the sound of an explosion was heard in Qatar and Jordan, whilst an explosion was also heard in Iran around Qeshm city near Konarak. Elsewhere in geopolitics, US Secretary of State Rubio said he had a good and frank conversation with the Russian Foreign Minister; the US is prepared to take a constructive role to end the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, EU Ambassadors have reached a political agreement on the 21st sanctions package against Russia, according to diplomats; additionally, the bloc is to freeze the oil price cap for a 12-month period.
- WTI and Brent futures at session highs. WTI Sep’26 trades beyond the USD 90/bbl mark, currently at the top end of its USD 87.32-90.35/bbl range. Brent Sep’26 resides near USD 98.50/bbl in a USD 94.89-98.75/bbl range. Dutch TTF prices have waned after hitting resistance near EUR 64/MWh before dipping sub-62.50/MWh. This morning, sources reported that buyers of LNG from Qatar and the UAE are seeking lower prices and stronger supply guarantees as risks to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increase.
- Precious metals are softer as rising oil prices once again hit by the rising oil prices. Spot gold trades in a USD 4,087-4,141/oz range, within yesterday’s USD 4,076-4,166/oz range. Spot silver briefly dipped under yesterday’s 58.73/oz low to currently trade towards the bottom end of a USD 58.66-60.07/oz range.
- Base metals are mostly lower amid the inflationary impact of higher oil prices. 3M LME copper trades towards the lower end of a USD 13,709.00-13,873.70/t range.
- Buyers of LNG from Qatar and the UAE are seeking lower prices and stronger supply guarantees as risks to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increase, according to sources.
- Kazakhstan’s daily oil production fell after loading operations were suspended at the CPC export terminal on the Black Sea, sources say, output down 21% on Wednesday vs July average
TRADE/TARIFFS
- China’s MOFCOM said China and the US are working towards the tariff cut plan; to maintain close communication.
- UAE Foreign Trade Minister said imports of high-end US AI chips expected soon, Bloomberg reported.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- The UK PM announced that pubs, clubs and live music venues are set to receive a 20% cut to their business rates bills, saving the typical pub an estimated GBP 1,100/yr.
- UK Chancellor Healey said he is as concerned about the cost of business as the cost of living.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump said the government will face a shutdown in September.
- Some Trump admin officials and allies have privately discussed whether an external review of the 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank could provide a legal basis to remove Fed Governor Barr, according to Bloomberg.
- US is investigating Chinese AI firm Moonshot over chip access, with the BIS probing if the Co. used US chips for model training, according to The Information.
- Trump admin is reportedly divided about restricting Chinese AI models, with the White House mulling preventing Chinese labs from distilling US models, and Commerce Department favours incentivising US companies to develop open models to counter China
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran was intending to double missile stockpile and that it looks like Iran is not ready to make a deal. He added that the price on Iran will get higher every night until they come to their senses but that Iran is begging to reach a deal.
- US CENTCOM said the US completed the 12th consecutive night of strikes against Iran, in which the US struck Iranian military targets including maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, surveillance sites and defence assets.
- US military has started using B-1 long-range bombers in its strikes against Iran, according to i24’s Stein citing a source that stated the first strike using the bomber was conducted on Tuesday.
- A senior US official said negotiations continue but the decisive moment for expanding hostilities is rapidly approaching, N12 reported.
- There were several explosions heard in Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan while sirens were sounded in Bahrain. In Iran, explosions were heard in Bushehr, Bandar Mahshahr, Sirik, Konarak City and Ramshir. Additionally, Iranian media reported that a power station was hit by a missile near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the south of the country, according to Sky News Arabia.
- IRGC said one of three offending ships attempting to pass the Strait of Hormuz caught fire and the other two quickly turned back, while it also targeted US bases in Jordan, and declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Additionally, the IRGC said it targeted US military in Kuwait’s Al-Adiri camp and Ali Al-Salem Airbase.
- Yemen’s Houthis announced they targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. In other reports, at least 9 ships have stopped passing through Bab al-Mandeb, following the blockade on Saudi ports by Houthis.
- Two Chinese supertankers carrying Saudi crude are heading to Bab al-Mandeb, according to reports citing data.
- Pakistani PM Sharif held a call with Saudi Crown Prince MBS. The two condemned the Houthi militia’s attacks against Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and reaffirmed Pakistan’s “complete solidarity” with Saudi Arabia.
- Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, on US-Iran talks, said they can not confirm 10-15 days or anything because these are confidential communications but they have not lost hope even during the darkest days of this escalation cycle.
- Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry, on the Yemeni Houthi threat, said that if Pakistani ships are attacked, it will be treated as an attack on Pakistan and will retaliate.
- UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 70NM of Al-Shuqaiq, Saudi Arabia, with a tanker reported to have been struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire on board.
- Oman’s Foreign Ministry said it is working with Saudi Arabia and Yemeni parties and the UN special envoy to resume the political process aimed at achieving regional security and stability.
- The US is on course to get no new military spending before the election and they are warning it could be a huge problem for them amidst the war with Iran, according to Semafor.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US Secretary of State Rubio said he had a good and frank conversation with the Russian Foreign Minister and the US is prepared to take a constructive role to end the war in Ukraine.
- Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov confirmed that Russia is prepared to resolve the conflict in Ukraine through political and diplomatic means, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry.
- EU Ambassadors have reached a political agreement on the 21st sanctions package against Russian, according to diplomats. Additionally, to freeze the oil price cap for a 12 month period.
OTHER
- China is conducting live fire, military drills in some areas of the Taiwan Strait on Thursday and Friday.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin continues to pare back Tuesday’s gains but remains firmly above the USD 65k mark.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as semiconductor strength helped the region shrug off the lacklustre lead from Wall Street and the widening geopolitical escalation in the Middle East.
- ASX 200 was lifted amid outperformance in the commodity-related and materials sectors, while sentiment was also helped by strong jobs data.
- Nikkei 225 rallied at the open but is well off today’s best levels amid higher oil prices and after hitting resistance around the 67,000 level.
- KOSPI remained driven by semiconductor advances with both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the green, while chaebols dominated the list of biggest gainers and participants also digested stronger-than-expected South Korean GDP data.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed, with Hong Kong led higher by strength in mining names, while the mainland was lacklustre as trade-related frictions lingered, with the US investigating Chinese AI firm Moonshot over chip access and whether the Co. used US chips for model training.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Australian Employment Change (Jun) 76.3K vs. Exp. 15K (Prev. 40.3K).
- Australian Unemployment Rate (Jun) 4.4% vs. Exp. 4.4% (Prev. 4.4%).
- South Korean GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q2) Q/Q 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 1.8%).
- South Korean GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv (Q2) Y/Y 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 3.8%).
1 c) Asian opening report
Equity futures mostly lower despite KOSPI rebound and heavy earnings docket – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Thursday, Jul 23, 2026 – 02:23 AM
- US and Iran exchanged strikes for the 12th consecutive night; US President Trump said Iran is getting hit so hard and that they want to make a deal.
- Yemeni Houthis targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, while reports noted that at least 9 ships have stopped passing through Bab al-Mandeb, following the blockade on Saudi ports by Houthis.
- Alphabet (GOOGL) shares fell -3.3%, Tesla (TSLA) slipped over 4%, and IBM (IBM) was modestly softer post-earnings.
- APAC stocks were predominantly in the green, DXY mildly softened, 10yr UST futures lingered near the prior day’s trough, and crude futures extended gains.
- European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3%.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales (May), US Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/18), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (Jul). Policy Announcements from the ECB, CBRT, and SARB. Comments from ECB President Lagarde. Supply from the UK & the US. Earnings from Intel, Blackstone, Lockheed Martin, RTX, TotalEnergies, Thales, SAP & Repsol.
SNAPSHOT
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1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
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IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump said Iran is getting hit so hard and that they want to make a deal, while he added that Iran will be ready very soon but is not ready for a deal yet.
- US President Trump posted on Truth Social an image of a headline reading, “Trump orders CENTCOM to ‘open the gates of hell’ after US troops killed, launches strikes on Iran”, which was a headline from three days ago.
- US CENTCOM conducted a 12th consecutive night of strikes against Iran, in which US forces struck Iranian military targets including maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, surveillance sites and defence assets.
- US CENTCOM redirected nine commercial vessels and disabled one vessel as of July 22nd, while it stated that Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz despite its claims
- US military started using B-1 long-range bombers in its strikes against Iran, according to i24’s Stein, citing a source that stated the first strike using the bomber was conducted on Tuesday.
- Iranian media reported that a power station was hit by a missile near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the south of the country, while a security official said two people were killed in a US strike on the Shalamcheh Border Crossing. Furthermore, explosions were heard in Jask, Bandar Mahshahr, Sirik and Ramshir in Iran’s Ahvaz.
- Iran targeted Kuwait and US military positions in eastern Jordan.
- UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 70NM of Al-Shuqaiq, Saudi Arabia, with a tanker reported to have been struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire on board, while Yemen’s Houthis announced that they targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. Furthermore, a Houthi military spokesperson said retaliatory naval operations against Saudi targets would continue under a ‘siege for a siege’ policy.
- IRGC said one of three offending ships that attempted to pass the Strait of Hormuz caught fire, and the other two quickly turned back, while it declared the Strait of Hormuz closed.
- Iran’s top negotiator Ghalibaf said, “The equation of this war is clear: either all or none. In a region where we do not sell oil, no one will sell oil. If our security is not ensured, no infrastructure will be safe, and the security of the Strait lies in the absence of American forces.” He added Iran had repeatedly said the situation in the Strait of Hormuz would not return to its pre-war state.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry said any aggression against Iran, including its infrastructure, will compel a powerful and decisive response, with its defence doctrine clear: eye for an eye. It added that those who contribute to such aggression, whatever the kind of support, will also be considered as legitimate targets.
- Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said “European governments need to be aware that providing bases and territory to the aggressor will put them among the aggressors”.
- Iran’s top joint military command said if the US acts on threats, Iran will stop all Gulf oil flow and will target oil, gas, electricity and economic infrastructure in the region.
- IRGC commander warned that Iran will cut off the electricity of US regional allies if its bridges or power plants are attacked.
- IRGC spokesperson warned shipping companies that the Strait of Hormuz southern route is mined, while the IRGC Navy warned against using alternative routes in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Israeli sources said the US had informed Israel it intended to escalate attacks on Iran and, for the first time during the current conflict, carry out strikes using heavy bombers.
- Israel is weighing possible entry into the war against Iran, but only under specific conditions, such as if Iran directly attacks Israel and the US approves, i24news reports.
- Mossad’s new director met with the CIA chief on Iran, while a purpose of the visit was to coordinate with the White House on negotiations with Iran on a nuclear deal, according to a source.
- US is investigating whether Russia assisted Iranian drone attacks on CIA sites in Gulf, according to reports, citing sources.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were little changed to lower on Wednesday, with the Russell 2000 leading the losses while the Nasdaq also underperformed ahead of big tech earnings after the close. Equities largely traded sideways throughout the session as investors awaited earnings results from Google (GOOGL), IBM (IBM) and Tesla (TSLA). Sector performance was mixed, with Utilities, Energy and Materials outperforming, while Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services and Health Care lagged.
- SPX -0.14% at 7,499, NDX -0.54% at 28,998, DJI -0.01% at 52,224, RUT -0.92% at 2,960.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump’s admin is reportedly divided about restricting Chinese AI models, with the White House mulling preventing Chinese labs from distilling US models, and the Commerce Department favours incentivising US companies to develop open models to counter China.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump said the government will face a shutdown in September, while he also called for an end to the filibuster rule, during a speech at an event in Georgia.
- Some Trump admin officials and allies privately discussed whether an external review of the 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank could provide a legal basis to remove Fed Governor Barr.
- US House voted 232-198 to pass the bill restricting congressional stock trading, while the House voted 216-212 to pass the defence authorisation bill that will be packaged with the SAVE America Act when sent to the Senate.
AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 9.11 (exp. 2.88), Revenue 119.8bln (exp. 117.00bln). (-3.3%)
- Tesla Inc. (TSLA) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.33 (exp. 0.52), Revenue 28.2bln (exp. 25.99bln). (-4.1%)
- IBM (IBM) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 2.27 (exp. 2.90), Revenue 17.2bln (exp. 17.578bln). (-0.4%)
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as semiconductor strength helped the region shrug off the lacklustre lead from Wall Street and the widening geopolitical escalation in the Middle East.
- ASX 200 was lifted amid outperformance in the commodity-related and materials sectors, while sentiment was also helped by strong jobs data.
- Nikkei 225 rallied at the open but is well off today’s best levels amid higher oil prices and after hitting resistance around the 67,000 level.
- KOSPI remained driven by semiconductor advances with both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the green, while chaebols dominated the list of biggest gainers and participants also digested stronger-than-expected South Korean GDP data.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed, with Hong Kong led higher by strength in mining names, while the mainland was lacklustre as trade-related frictions lingered, with the US investigating Chinese AI firm Moonshot over chip access and whether the Co. used US chips for model training.
- US equity futures were indecisive with two-way price action seen following a mixed reaction to earnings results, including from Alphabet and Tesla.
- European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Wednesday.
FX
- DXY mildly softened against most major peers in rangebound trade following a quiet US data calendar so far this week and the absence of Fedspeak due to the blackout, keeping the Middle East conflict as the main focus. Nonetheless, it was reported that some Trump admin officials and allies had privately discussed whether an external review of the 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank could provide a legal basis to remove Fed’s Barr.
- EUR/USD climbed higher heading into the ECB meeting later today, where the central bank is widely expected to stand pat after last month’s rate hike, but could provide hawkish hints of a September move.
- GBP/USD eked slight gains but with upside capped following yesterday’s choppy performance and muted reaction to the recent mixed UK inflation report.
- USD/JPY took a breather and proceeded sideways during Asia trade after whipsawing yesterday through the 163.00 level amid a source report that the BoJ is said to be open to faster rate increases.
- Antipodeans kept afloat with AUD/USD the biggest gainer following stronger-than-expected jobs data from Australia, in which headline Employment Change smashed estimates at 76.3k (exp. 15k), and the Unemployment Rate remained at 4.1%, despite higher Participation.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7906 vs exp. 6.7712 (prev. 6.7933)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures lingered near the prior day’s trough after recent bear flattening, as escalating geopolitical tensions lifted oil prices and supported expectations for more aggressive future Fed tightening.
- Bund futures were subdued after recent supply and as participants await any hawkish ECB signals.
- 10yr JGB futures retreated as higher oil prices stoked inflationary pressures, while a previous source report noted that BoJ officials were open to raising rates more frequently than every six months.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures extended gains as the geopolitical situation continued to show no signs of abating, with the US and Iran exchanging strikes for the 12th consecutive night and with US President Trump recently threatening to bomb and destroy one bridge or power plant any time Iran targets a ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Nonetheless, the main key development overnight was the Houthis targeting two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, while reports noted that at least 9 ships have stopped passing through Bab al-Mandeb, following the blockade on Saudi ports by Houthis.
- US President Trump said Venezuela is working with the US to produce oil, while he reiterated that oil companies are going into Venezuela and that they don’t need the Strait of Hormuz.
- Russia is forced to import fuel from India as Ukrainian strikes damage refineries, according to FT.
- Spot gold was choppy with early pressure seen alongside a rise in oil prices.
- Copper futures recouped some of the recent losses, with trade largely driven by risk sentiment.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin trickled lower for most of the session after slipping beneath the USD 66,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- US is investigating Chinese AI firm Moonshot over chip access, with the BIS probing if the Co. used US chips for model training, according to The Information.
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama reiterated a readiness to take decisive action on FX as needed.
DATA RECAP
- South Korean GDP QQ (Q2 A) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 1.8%)
- South Korean GDP YY (Q2 A) Y/Y 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 3.8%)
- Australian Employment Change (Jun) 76.3K vs. Exp. 15K (Prev. 40.3K)
- Australian Full Time Employment Chg (Jun) 29.3K (Prev. 5.2K)
- Australian Unemployment Rate (Jun) 4.4% vs. Exp. 4.4% (Prev. 4.4%)
- Australian Participation Rate (Jun) 67.0% vs. Exp. 66.7% (Prev. 66.7%)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian President Zelensky spoke with US President Trump’s envoys Witkoff and Kushner, while they discussed ideas for resuming diplomatic efforts to end the war, according to Axios sources.
- EU diplomat said ambassadors failed to agree on the 21st package of sanctions on Russia. It was later reported that Russian gas cargoes are to remain exempt as the EU nears a new sanctions deal, while groups such as Greece’s Dynagas will be allowed to continue carrying Russian LNG, according to FT.
OTHER
- US President Trump’s admin is weighing military action in Mali against the al-Qaeda-affiliated group JNIM, according to The Washington Post citing officials.
- China is conducting live fire and military drills in some areas of the Taiwan Strait on Thursday and Friday.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK Chancellor Healey said the first priority is fiscal discipline.
NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN
SOUTH KOREA
JAPAN
3 CHINA/
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
ECB
RATES UNCHANGED
ECB Keeps Rates Unchanged (As Expected), Warns ‘Full Energy Inflationary Shock Yet To Come’
Thursday, Jul 23, 2026 – 08:30 AM
The European Central Bank kept its key deposit rate unchanged at 2.25 percent and said it was “closely monitoring” the inflationary impact of fresh conflict in the Middle East.
The ECB reiterated it won’t pre-commit but act one meeting at a time based on information as it arrives.
“Uncertainty remains high and the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out,” the lender of last resort for the 21 countries that use the euro said.
“The Governing Council is therefore closely monitoring the intensity and duration of the shock.”
The ECB’s hawkish posture preserves its status at the vanguard of Group-of-Seven central banks after it last month became the first in that club to raise rates since the Iran war began.
Last month’s rate increase sparked discussions that the ECB might make a mistake similar to hikes in 2008 and 2011 which were quickly rolled back.
That debate persisted after peace talks between Washington and Tehran caused energy prices to drop sharply.
For all their sense of nervousness then however, the latest flare-up in fighting has emboldened policymakers in judging their recent hike to be fully justified.
“With today’s decision, the Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the conflict.”
The September meeting is widely seen as a natural point to deliver such a move if required, backed by new quarterly staff forecasts, inflation prints for the two prior months and more economic data including several business surveys.
The euro extended its overnight weakness against the dollar…
…and Bund yields remained elevated…
For now, traders are largely unmoved on the future ECB rate trajectory, holding around 48bps of hikes by year-end. As Bloomberg Economics’ David Powell noted:
“Even when oil prices were close to their lowest for the summer, President Christine Lagarde retained a hawkish tone. Buoyant commodity prices keep the Governing Council on track to raise borrowing costs again in September, when it’s armed with fresh forecasts from the staff economists, for a final time in this short tightening cycle.”
Policymakers reiterated that the ECB is “well positioned” to navigate the situation.
SWEDEN
Swedish Police Veteran Warns Islamization Is Replacing Gang Violence As Country’s Defining Threat
Thursday, Jul 23, 2026 – 02:00 AM
A veteran Swedish police officer says tougher criminal laws have sharply improved security in Uppsala, but warns that Islamization and parallel social structures now pose a deeper long-term threat.
Maria Rosander, a police officer of 17 years and Sweden Democrat group leader in Uppsala, told Samnytt that conditions for officers had changed dramatically since shootings and explosions reached crisis levels.
“From a police point of view, it’s like night and day,” she said.
Rosander credited tougher sentences, expanded surveillance, better cooperation between police regions, and greater use of covert measures. Suspected young gang recruits can now be intercepted before carrying out attacks, she said.
The improvement showed that political decisions could reverse criminal decline, but it still has a long way to go. “We have come to the conclusion that it is not profitable to be a criminal,” Rosander said.
However, the police chief suggested that while legislation to tackle gang violence was starting to produce the desired effect, religious segregation and increased Islamization across Swedish society remain a huge problem.
“Islamization is a contributing factor to what we have seen in society. I am absolutely convinced of that,” she said.
Rosander described the mosque in Uppsala as a symbol of segregation, honor-based oppression and unequal treatment of men and women. She said female officers were often ignored in favor of male colleagues and claimed girls in heavily segregated areas were kept away from public life.
“We are letting Islamization creep in to the point where we will not be able to say no,” she said. “Society is being eaten from within.”
Rosander called for a halt to new mosque construction, restrictions on the niqab and burqa in public, and a ban on children wearing Islamic veils.
She also rejected the language of integration. “I think we should talk about assimilation,” she said.
Swedish society, Rosander argued, should not continually adapt to newcomers who maintain separate cultural and social systems. She criticized multilingual municipal information, saying it removed incentives to learn Swedish.
Rosander further claimed that parallel structures were facilitating welfare abuse, false address registration, and informal financial transfers through religious networks.
She described couples registering at separate addresses while remaining married under Islamic law, allowing them to claim additional housing and benefits.
“The woman receives housing allowance, extra allowance and an apartment for her children,” she said. “The man also receives an apartment that he rents out illegally.”
Rosander also warned that foreign criminal gang networks were deeply established in Uppsala’s vulnerable districts. “We absolutely have gang structures in our society,” she said.
She said extended families repeatedly appeared in criminal investigations and described reports of business owners being forced to pay protection money.
“It’s classic mafia,” she said. “I see clan and mafia as basically the same thing.”
“It’s not the Swedes. These are foreign groups that have connections to organized crime and networks,” Rosander added.
“It is not Swedish youth who commit these crimes.”
Rosander called for stricter background checks for sensitive public-sector positions, arguing that clan loyalty could override loyalty to Swedish institutions.
She also criticized Uppsala Municipality for allegedly failing to scrutinize the foreign funding of Muslim associations and mosque projects.
“If you can’t account for 100 percent where the money comes from, it should never be opened,” she said.
Rosander supports an active remigration policy and wants Uppsala to establish a municipal unit focused on illegal residence, improper settlement, and misuse of public housing.
“For me, remigration is necessary,” she said.
She said Sweden’s success in reducing crime proved that its cultural decline could be reversed, but only if politicians were willing to confront uncomfortable realities.
“As a Swede, I should not have to change my life and start deviating from things that we in Sweden have always done just to suit someone else,” she said.
Read the full interview here.
END
BULGARIA/IRAN
this could be very explosive
Bulgaria Draws Iranian Warning Over Hosting US Military Tanker Aircraft
Thursday, Jul 23, 2026 – 02:45 AM
Bulgaria has for many years during the so-called Global War on Terror been a major Eastern European hub for US and Western weapons shipments as well as military aircraft transfers related to the Middle West.
But now Iran is paying close attention, putting the Bulgarian government on notice over a planned temporary deployment of up to eight American refueling aircraft.
The large military planes are set to be housed at Bezmer Air Base in the NATO country’s southeast. It is one of the few joint bases at which US forces have a lot of freedom of operation.
The request from Washington is being framed as a way to relieve pressure on Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv, where dozens of parked refueling tankers have disrupted normal commercial flight operations.
Additionally, it comes after a number of EU allies, especially Italy and Spain, have blocked US Air Force planes that are engaged in any way in Operation Epic Fury.
On Wednesday, the Bulgarian parliament voted to allow the US refueling planes to be based in the country:
Bulgaria’s parliament votes to allow the United States to base refueling planes in the country, as Donald Trump threatens to further escalate military attacks on Iran.
Washington made the request Friday, and parliament approved it with 136 votes in favor, 13 against and two abstentions.
Bulgaria will authorize the deployment of up to eight KC-135 tanker aircraft and up to 250 military personnel, tasked with supporting operations in the Middle East. They will be stationed at Bezmer Air Base in the southeast, from July 24 to October 1, 2026.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry has warned against Bulgaria becoming complicit in the US war. Tehran described that Bulgaria too will now be a participant in “aggression and war crimes.” Also this via Tasnim—
Iran Deputy FM Gharibabadi says “European governments need to be aware that providing bases and territory to the aggressor will put them among the aggressors.”
Back in April, when there were signs of moving American planes onto Bulgarian soil, Tehran sent Sofia a diplomatic note and protest cautioning against allowing this.
US European Command has meanwhile warned it is ready to respond if Iran threatens any kind of aggression or retaliation on Bulgaria.
“The United States maintains regional defensive capabilities across NATO’s eastern flank, including in Bulgaria, and works closely with the Bulgarian government and our allies and partners throughout the broader region,” the US command said. “We remain vigilant and prepared to counter any potential threats.”
Bulgaria itself has downplayed that these US planes will have a direct role in aggression against Iran, but it’s hard to see what say the Bulgarian government would have in how the US Air Force uses its planes.
end
UK
To The Woke Woodshed: Burnham Is Funding UK Populism By Liquidating The Progressive Project
Thursday, Jul 23, 2026 – 06:55 AM
Andy Burnham has been UK Prime Minister for three days, and he has already settled into a routine: announce something cheap for households in the morning, pay for it by killing a progressive unicorn.
The tally so far:
Monday, within hours of kissing rings at the Palace, Burnham signaled he would fast-track oil and gas development in the North Sea – which is just words for now, but ‘un-Labour’ enough that Donald Trump welcomed it in the same post that dismissed Britain as a “Poverty Stricken Disaster.”
Tuesday: VAT stripped from domestic electricity bills from October 1, funded by cancelling Starmer’s £1.8 billion Digital ID programme outright. BritCard – the surveillance flagship that survived a near-three-million-signature petition and a year of civil-liberties fury – died in the end as a budget line, sold for parts to buy down winter energy bills.
And Wednesday: a £2 nationwide cap on single bus fares from January 1, 2027, running through that year, announced by a Prime Minister insisting cheaper transport was always possible: “I’ve done it before and I will do it again.” The funding? A £454 million package drawn entirely from a “reprioritisation” of the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero’s budget – the bulk of it from converting investment money earmarked for international climate finance into repayable loans. The climate budget pays the bus fare.
Whose Money Is It Anyway
The government’s line, delivered by Chancellor John Healey, is that all of this is funded from savings rather than borrowing, with no burden on taxpayers. Except – on the Digital ID swap, the OBR has pointed out that the £1.8 billion BritCard budget was never actually funded in the first place – meaning its cancellation conjures savings from a line item that existed mostly on paper. On the bus cap, the £454 million covers a scheme whose total cost is expected to top £500 million, with the gap filled by Department for Transport money “already allocated to buses.”
The climate-finance maneuver is the cleverest of the three, and the department has an answer ready. Converting grants to loans, DESNZ argues, frees the capital for bus fares while still allowing Britain to invest in international climate projects such as the Tropical Forests Forever Facility – the money goes out either way, it just comes back now. Which is true, if it comes back. A grant that becomes a loan books a saving today against a repayment that lands in somebody else’s parliament.
Critics are abuzz in response. Shadow Transport Secretary Richard Holden’s complaint begins with the observation that the Conservatives “introduced the £2 bus fare cap, expanded it, and pledged to keep it” – which is to say, the Tories’ first objection to Britain’s new left-wing government is that it is stealing their policies. He then asks how Labour intends to pay for any of it, and predicts borrowing or taxes will have to rise. On that second point he is asking the same question the arithmetic asks. A 20% business-rates cut for hospitality is reportedly next in the queue. There will presumably be something progressive left to defund by then.
The Mayor’s Playbook
Burnham, it appears, is basically going to run Britain the way he ran Greater Manchester for nine years; bills, bus fares, and no patience for Whitehall’s pet schemes. The £2 cap is literally his Manchester policy gone national – he kept it there out of his own budget when Starmer and Rachel Reeves raised the national cap to £3 in 2024 – and the loser, three days running, has been his own party’s managerial wing: the ID cards, the climate money, the net zero department’s budget. Ed Miliband, the climate agenda’s standard-bearer, can do the math from his new office – packed off to the Foreign Office on Monday evening – roughly 36 hours before his old department’s budget was raided to subsidize bus tickets.
The gilt market is letting all this slide for one simple reason: he is raiding, not borrowing. The 10-year yield jumped 8 basis points to 5.04% on Burnham’s first-day rhetoric, then retreated in relief once Healey – a defense hawk, not a spender – got the Treasury.
GERMANY RUSSIA
Lavrov To Challenge Germany’s Bid For French Nuclear Shield In Rubio Talks
Wednesday, Jul 22, 2026 – 11:00 PM
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio are expected to hold an important, rare meeting on Thursday to address shaky bilateral relations in the context of the Ukraine war, as well as recent nuclear rhetoric out of European NATO countries.
The Kremlin is especially alarmed at the German government’s intent to gain access to nuclear weapons, based on new defense agreements with France and its ‘nuclear umbrella’. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz unveiled late last week: “Alongside this work on a shared doctrine, German conventional forces will this year take part in a nuclear exercise of the French military.”
The Russian FM has newly responded just the day prior to the Rubio meeting: “And this is truly alarming, considering that, for example, the US nuclear program was largely created by people who fled Germany and were taken there. That memory does not fade.”
Lavrov in the remarks to the press previewing the top level dialogue warned that ongoing US aggression in places like Iran and the Middle East could push an array of non-nuclear sakes to quickly seek atomic weapons, on fears of attack from Washington or its allies.
The meeting with Rubio will be “useful in any case” Lavrov stated, underscoring that Moscow has many open, pressing questions for the Trump administration concerning its current policies. “It’s better to ask questions directly and receive answers,” Lavrov noted.
Lavrov seized on some of President Trump’s recent comments on forging peace in Ukraine, at a moment the air war has clearly been ramping up, especially given that Ukrainian drone strikes have increasingly penetrated into the Moscow region. “Regarding Trump’s prediction of an imminent settlement, I will ask Marco Rubio tomorrow,” Lavrov said according to TASS.
He also said that Russia continues to adhere to principles put forward at the Putin-Trump Alaska summit in Anchorage, in August 2025. “We assume that, at least for now, our American colleagues have not revoked their own proposals, which were voiced in Anchorage and which are now well known to everyone,” Lavrov stated.
But he also previewed that he’ll raise the issue of deepening US involvement with Ukrainian intelligence and the military, per TASS:
The US is not simply assisting, but directly participating in, the targeting of Ukrainian weapons at facilities in Russia, including civilian ones:
“But of all people, the Americans, through arms supplies funded by the European Union and through the provision of intelligence – the Starlink system and much more – are not simply assisting, but directly participating in the targeting of Ukrainian weapons at facilities, including civilian ones, on Russian territory.”
Concerning the ongoing tit-for-tat attacks on Black Sea shipping, as well as the question of a safe energy corridor, the top Russian diplomat said, “When asked about the Black Sea Initiative, the answer is short: there were no proposals.”
Lavrov also said to reporters that recent claims out of Eastern European and Baltic leaders that Russia is preparing some kind of attack or sabotage inside the EU is a fabrication and born out of sensationalism and propaganda.
“Vladimir Putin was asked about the EU’s preparations for war, and he very clearly answered that we have no intention of attacking anyone, but if they, having once again gathered all of Europe under certain banners, try to attack us, it will no longer be a conventional war. It will be a different kind of war,” Lavrov warned
Lavrov also highlighted the persisting Iran conflict in the pre-Rubio meeting remarks, saying it’s hard to speculate, but “I have the feeling that continuing hostilities is not in the interests of either the United States or Iran.”
Russia wants the Hormuz crisis to quickly end, Lavrov said. He also batted down allegations that Russia is weaponizing the Iranian side and helping fuel the war, saying this is “embarrassing to hear” and that ultimately “We want this to stop. It affects the global economy, and Russia is part of the global economy.”
Currently, the Russian military seems bent on ‘punishing’ Ukraine for its long-range strikes deep inside Russian territory, which has hit oil depots and key energy sites in particular. This has included huge ballistic missile strikes on the Ukrainian capital. These salvos have been getting bigger and bigger of late.
END
UK/FRANCE/SWEDEN/GERMANY/SPAIN
What Is The UK Government So Afraid Of?
Thursday, Jul 23, 2026 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,
The British government is in court to stop the public seeing the full picture of migrant crime rates.
After the Information Commissioner ordered the Ministry of Justice to release nationality-linked conviction data from 2018 to 2024, officials have launched an appeal, claiming it risks identifying offenders and costs too much.
Campaigners say the real fear is what the numbers will show about open-border policies that have left British streets, transport and communities less safe.
The Centre for Migration Control submitted the Freedom of Information request that triggered the ruling. The MoJ rejected both the identification and cost arguments.
Director of Research Robert Bates called the legal fight “astonishing” and said it raises serious questions about what the government is hiding.
Reform UK’s Robert Jenrick put it bluntly: “The cover-up continues. Successive Tory and Labour justice secretaries have refused to publish this basic information. A Reform government led by Nigel Farage would immediately blow the lid on what’s really happening and begin deporting these dangerous criminals.”
A Ministry of Justice spokesman insisted there is no cover-up but declined further comment while proceedings continue.
Partial data already released shows foreign nationals accounted for 14.1 per cent of sex offence convictions in 2025. That figure excludes naturalised British citizens and lacks breakdowns for rape, grooming or child sexual abuse.
Earlier analysis comparing prison rolls to census figures found foreigners overall 27 per cent more likely to be imprisoned than British citizens.
Albanians recorded an imprisonment rate of 232.33 per 10,000 people against 14 for British citizens. Kosovars, Vietnamese, Algerians, Jamaicans, Eritreans, Iraqis and Somalis all sat well above the British baseline. Some groups, including Germans, Italians and Indians, sat below it.
Those patterns match the detailed pictures already forced into the open through earlier FOI work.
Foreign nationals made up 79 per cent of theft arrests on British trains in 2025, 40 per cent of drug offence arrests, 37 per cent of sexual offence arrests and 36 per cent of violent crime arrests.
They accounted for nearly 3,700 of the 9,771 total arrests recorded by British Transport Police that year.
Across England and Wales, foreign nationals were arrested 172,889 times in the year ending March 2025 – one every 183 seconds – including 51,212 for violence and 11,264 for sexual offences.
Migrant Crime Surge: Foreigners Top 79% Of Theft Arrests, 40% Of Violent Suspects On UK Trains
The migrant crime epidemic affecting continental Western Europe has hit Britain
Separate figures showed foreign nationals 3.5 times more likely to be arrested for sex crimes than British citizens, with an arrest rate of nearly 165 per 100,000 against 48 per 100,000 for Britons.
They formed 26.1 per cent of sexual offence arrests despite comprising around 9 per cent of the population.
In the City of London the foreign share of sex crime arrests reached 66.9 per cent; in Derbyshire it hit 44.8 per cent. Nationalities with the highest rates included Afghans, Iraqis, Algerians and Somalis.
The two-tier reality of enforcement has also become impossible to ignore. An Ethiopian small-boat arrival housed in an Epping asylum hotel sexually assaulted a 14-year-old girl and a woman who tried to help him.
He received a 12-month sentence. Local residents who protested the hotel and the offender later received longer jail terms.
One father of two was given two years and nine months for violent disorder after adopting what a judge called a “fighting or boxing stance.”
Angry Locals JAILED For Longer Than The Migrant Who Sexually Assaulted A 14-Year-Old Girl
UK’s two-tier justice system crushes locals while shielding migrant criminals
modernityPolice Scotland has gone further, refusing FOI requests for aggregated data on call-outs, crimes and arrests at five asylum hotels.
Officers cited fears that releasing the figures would heighten community tensions and put people at risk of physical harm. The force acknowledged the hotels house asylum seekers and refugees yet argued that numbers could change over time and that incidents might be linked to protests rather than residents.
Scottish Conservative shadow justice secretary Liam Kerr called the refusal another example of public bodies following an SNP culture of secrecy.
Police Scotland HIDES True Scale Of Asylum Hotel Crimes Amid Fears of Violent Backlash
Refusal to release data exposes deep-seated tensions from unchecked migration
The same pattern repeats across Europe. In Spain a CEU-CEFAS study found foreigners commit five times more rapes and four times more murders per capita than Spanish citizens.
They make up 31 per cent of the prison population. In Catalonia 91 per cent of convicted rapists are migrants, who form only 17 per cent of the population.
Penetrative rape cases rose 143 per cent between 2019 and 2024. Attempted murders nearly doubled over a similar period. Illegal property occupations saw foreigners accounting for 51.8 per cent of arrests.
In Spain Foreigners Commit 5X More Rapes, 4X More Murders Than Spaniards – New Study
‘Imported crime’: Penetrative rape cases jump 143% in just 5 years
Official Spanish figures show rape crimes tripled from 1,878 cases in 2019 to 5,206 in 2024 – an average of 14 rapes per day. Catalonia, Madrid and Andalusia led the surge. Sixty-four per cent of sexual assault and rape inmates are foreign nationals.
Crimes Of Rape Have Tripled In Six Years Across Spain
Latest statistics reveal alarming increase in rapes, reaching 5,206 incidents in 2024, nearly triple the figure reported six years ago
Eurostat data confirmed the continental scale: rape reports in Spain surged 322 per cent over the last decade, against an EU average rise of 150 per cent.
EU-wide sexual violence cases exceeded 250,000 in 2024, with nearly 100,000 rapes. Foreigners in Spain remain over-represented in serious crime even as the native population ages.
EU Crime Report: Rape Reports In Spain Surge by 322% Over Last Decade, EU Sees 150% Increase
In Spain, the data shows that foreigners commit per capita 500% more rapes and 414%
In France left-wing MPs, including Greens, tabled an amendment demanding public media reduce coverage of crime stories. They cited the murders of 13-year-old Lola and of Thomas in Crépol as examples of “political exploitation” by the right.
Marine Le Pen called the move a hallmark of totalitarian ideology that threatens the public’s right to know. French statistics already show foreigners responsible for 69 per cent of violence and sexual crimes on public transport, half of all crimes in Paris and 55 per cent in Marseille.
France: Left-wing MPs Introduce Amendment To Reduce Coverage Of Migrant Crime Stories
Claim right-wing parties create a ‘moral panic’ around immigration
Germany’s 2025 police crime statistics show foreigners, 15 per cent of the population, responsible for 41 per cent of violent crimes and 38 per cent of murders.
They account for 39.1 per cent of serious sexual offences. Rape has risen 72 per cent since 2018. Afghans are 14 times more likely than Germans to commit sexual offences; Syrians are 11 times more likely to commit violence.
Knife crime runs at 29,000 incidents a year. In North Rhine-Westphalia foreigners commit 48 per cent of robberies.
Germany: Foreigners Vastly Overrepresented In Violent Crimes, 72% Increase In Rape Since 2018
Germany’s foreign share of crimes is astronomically high, especially for serious crimes
Reported rapes in Germany reached nearly 14,000 in 2025, a 9 per cent rise on the previous year and a 72 per cent jump since 2018. Non-German nationals formed around 41 per cent of suspects for crimes against sexual self-determination.
In some states the over-representation reaches three to four times their population share. Hesse’s Interior Minister Roman Poseck noted that perpetrators with a migration background are overrepresented and that some arrive with “a completely wrong understanding of roles” regarding women’s rights.
Rapes In Germany SOAR To Nearly 14,000 Cases In 2025, Migrants Vastly Overrepresented
“The truth is that perpetrators with a migration background are overrepresented”
Sweden Democrats MEP Charlie Weimers forced the European Parliament to confront the pattern after a Swedish police officer was beaten to death at a Copenhagen fan zone and a Gambian migrant in Milan stabbed a man 20 times “for fun.”
Weimers described the attacks as part of a broader wave undermining ordinary Europeans’ safety. Swedish Social Democrats voted against even holding the debate.
The refusal to publish the data sits against a starker warning delivered inside the same parliament.
At a conference titled “Civil War: Europe at Risk?”, Professor David Betz of King’s College London told MEPs that “Europe is on track for civil war.”
Marion Maréchal warned that cultural homogeneity – the main basis of trust between citizens – is eroding, producing societies of violence and mistrust.
A report mapped up to a thousand no-go zones across the continent. Betz described the trajectory as Balkanisation that could extinguish coherent national identities and lead to large-scale conflict resembling the Troubles or the Years of Lead, only on a continental scale.
WATCH: EU Parliament Told Continent Is ‘On Track For CIVIL WAR’
Mass migration is shredding cultural homogeneity and paving the way for Balkanisation
British officials still claim the full nationality breakdown is too expensive or too risky to release. The Information Commissioner already rejected those arguments.
Campaigners note that partial data and FOI-driven releases have already painted a consistent picture: certain nationalities drive disproportionate shares of theft, violence and sexual crime, while native protesters face longer sentences than the offenders who provoked them.
Across Spain, France and Germany the same disparities appear, often followed by official efforts to limit public discussion rather than confront the numbers.
The legal battle is therefore not about administrative cost. It is about whether British voters are allowed to see the consequences of the migration policies successive governments have pursued.
Reform UK has pledged to publish the data and begin deportations. Until then, the Ministry of Justice will keep fighting in the courts to keep the full ledger closed.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
END
SWITZERLAND/NESTLE
Nestle Shares Plunge Most Since Dot-Com Bust As Weak Volume Shatters High Hopes Of Turnaround
Thursday, Jul 23, 2026 – 07:45 AM
Nestlé shares in Switzerland tumbled the most in 24 years after North American sales volumes unexpectedly contracted, undercutting investor confidence in CEO Philipp Navratil’s turnaround efforts.
Organic sales rose a better-than-expected 3.7% in the second quarter, but real internal growth in North America fell 0.6%, while an infant formula recall and the Gulf conflict weighed on operations.
“Given the rally, we don’t think the real internal growth print is quite good enough and expect some profit taking,” Barclays analyst Warren Ackerman said in a note.
Ackerman said, “NESN’s turnaround is a work in progress, and expectations were too elevated, which explains the steepest fall in the shares since 2020.”
If the 7.2% decline holds through the European close, it would mark Nestlé’s steepest one-day loss since July 22, 2002, according to Bloomberg data.
Shares peaked around 127 euros in late 2021 and have since fallen 44% into a 4.5-year bear market. Any upside momentum seen this year has stalled – for now – as hopes of a turnaround dim.
Ackerman added, “Coffee and Petcare remained strong, but were not sufficient to offset weakness elsewhere.”
Here’s what other institutional desks are saying (courtsey of Bloomberg):
Citi (neutral)
- Cedric Besnard doesn’t expect changes to consensus expectations on the back of the print “as the end of the sequential H2 margin acceleration narrative is actually aligned with current expectations”
- “Especially after a relatively strong share price performance recently, we would not expect a re-rating,” Besnard writes
Vontobel (buy)
- “Nestle is showing clear execution on the key priorities, marking a meaningful milestone in this new strategic roadmap,” Jean-Philippe Bertschy writes
- Adds accelerating RIG, cost savings and improving cash generation are particularly reassuring given higher advertising and marketing spend
Nestlé also agreed to sell half of its Perrier and S.Pellegrino water business to Platinum Equity for 3 billion euros in cash, creating a 50-50 venture valued at 4.9 billion euros. The deal advances Navratil’s plan to shed underperforming assets and refocus the company heavily on coffee, pet care, nutrition, food and snacks.
Navratil is pulling every lever to stabilize the sinking ship, and the strategy appears to be working.
As CFO Anna Manz told investors on an earnings call earlier today: “You see us manage, as we have in the first half, any elements that come our way quite consistently, and that’s why we’re maintaining our margin guidance today.”
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//
WEDNESDAY NIGHT//ISRAEL/IRAN/USA
IRGC To Trump: Strike Iran’s Infrastructure, We’ll Shut Off The Gulf’s Power
Wednesday, Jul 22, 2026 – 04:25 PM
Summary
- Trump ultimatum: Trump vowed the US will strike an Iranian bridge or power plant after every Iranian attack on shipping.
- Iran responds: The IRGC threatened to hit Gulf energy infrastructure if Iranian infrastructure is attacked, saying it will cut off electricity among US allies.
- Latest Gulf missile attacks: Iran claimed attacks on US-linked targets in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.
- Nuclear tensions: Iran denied nuclear activity at Pickaxe Mountain, calling US claims a ‘fabricated pretext’ for attack.
- Oil climbs: Renewed Gulf attacks and shipping threats continued to lift oil prices.
* * *
Iran Responds to Trump Ultimatum: We’ll Turn The Lights Off In Gulf
A top IRGC official has responded to Trump’s Bridge attack for each shipping attack ultimatum (see below). Iranian IRGC Aerospace Commander Mousavi has threatened that Iran will cut off electricity to America’s Gulf Allies if Iranian bridges or power plants are attacked, Tasnim News Agency.
“If the Americans target an Iranian bridge or power plant, Iran will respond by striking infrastructure and bridges across the region, including energy facilities in which the United States has interests,” the official said according semi-official news agency Tasnim.
“The Americans should by now, after these past ten days, be fully convinced that Iran strikes wherever it decides to strike. Therefore, any such gamble by Trump will once again end in his embarrassment,” the IRGC commander added.
Separately, Iran’s deputy foreign minister briefed 25 European ambassadors and charges d’affaires in Tehran on the status of the conflict. “I reminded them that in the 40-day war, we imposed a severe defeat on the aggressors. In this new round of military aggression as well, we will resolutely defend our homeland and national interests,” Kazem Gharibabadi posted on X.
“These wars have created no strategic gains for America and only endanger regional and global peace and security. I also said that Europe is expected to safeguard the United Nations Charter and international law and to condemn aggression,” he added.
Iran has continued to sound an “eye for an eye” theme, and has not backed down in the face of Trump’s fresh threats…
Meanwhile, Iran is touting that it still possesses a very significant missile stockpile, as it is still producing even as US bombs fall:
Trump: US Will Destroy A Bridge Or Power Plant For Each Iranian Attack On Shipping
More telegraphing of intent from President Trump in the below Truth Social Post… he said the US military will “bomb and destroy” one bridge or power plant – including in Tehran – each time the Iranian military shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz. This comes a day after he unveiled the US military plans to conduct a large bombing of Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear complex, which is heavily fortified.
But the Iranians have already long demonstrated they won’t alter course in the face of such threats, especially bluster from Trump over social media, and so this unlikely to be any kind of fix for Washington, as Tehran has vowed to keep control of Hormuz at all costs. The Pentagon has argued that things like bridges are ‘dual use’ as the Iranian military uses them to get supplies from one region to another, while international monitors have highlighted the potential for war crimes. The Iranians have in turn widened attacks on Gulf states to include key civic infrastructure, like water desalination plants (in Kuwait) – each time their own infrastructure gets hit.
Iran: Pickaxe Mountain Rhetoric is ‘Fabricated Pretext’
Amid continued fighting which has included explosions heard in Tehran overnight and in the south, Iran’s leadership has condemned the Trump administration’s “obsessive focus on Kolang Kouh where no nuclear activity is taking place is nothing more than a fabricated pretext for aggression, destruction, and sabotage,” according to Foreign Minister spokesman Esmail Baghaei in a post on X, referring to Pickaxe Mountain.
He pointed out that all of Iran’s nuclear activity has long been fully declared to the IAEA, and so the repeat threats out of Washington to mount a major attack on it is a “flagrant violation” of UN charter and international law. Trump had said the day prior that the US military will be hitting Pickaxe mountain “pretty soon very heavily and there is nothing they can do about it.“
Even some supporters have quested why the US Commander-in-Chief would so casually telegraph his intentions, saying the Pentagon loses an operational edge in revealing such plans.
There’s been a lot of sudden focus on Pickaxe Mountain, though it had largely been absent from all prior media coverage of the war, due to Israeli intelligence feeding it to US mainstream press. “Israeli intelligence believes Iran moved thousands of uranium-enrichment centrifuges into tunnels deep inside a mountain last fall, Israeli and U.S. officials say, a development that would heighten concerns that Tehran could reconstitute its nuclear program,” The Wall Street Journal wrote Tuesday.
“Israel passed along the intelligence findings to the U.S., saying the centrifuges were transferred to the Pickaxe Mountain site last fall after the 12-day war in June when American and Israeli strikes pummeled Iran’s three main nuclear sites,” it added.
US Bases in Gulf Under Renewed Attack
And now, by all accounts, more aircraft, refueling planes, and heavy military hardware continue to be transferred from Europe and into the Central Command area of responsibility.
The Iranians might view this as more simply extra targets to be taken out, however, as Gulf countries continue to see inbound attacks. Missile alerts have been sounding Wednesday in Saudi Arabia, and again in Bahrain. ISNA reports (via Newsquawk): Drone and missile attacks on Bahrain and Saudi Arabia; US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and US base in Saudi Arabia targeted:
- Bahrain has faced almost daily bombardment recently due to hosting the US Fifth Fleet headquarters.
- Saudi Arabia has been pulled into the firing line after the collapse of a previous multi-year ceasefire with Iranian-backed factions.
US Troops Under Iranian Missiles in Jordan
Soldiers in Jordan seem to be prime targets of Iranian ballistic missiles, in an extremely dangerous situation, after several American soldiers already died there in the past week:
Jordan too continues to see significant inbound projectiles from Iran. Iranian state media has newly announced that F-15 warplanes, drone preparation infrastructure and a helicopter storage facility at Prince Hassan and King Faisal bases were targeted in recent ballistic missile launches.
IRNA news agency claimed that eight new American MQ-9 drones were destroyed and two others “severely damaged” in the attack, and in addition two helicopters were damaged.
The fresh Wednesday morning initial reports of potential further inbound missile on Bahrain and Saudi Arabia have pushed oil prices higher.
Rubio on Iran-Led Axis of ‘Troublemakers’
Meanwhile Secretary of State Marco says the US is in contact with Saudi officials over the ongoing threat by Yemen’s Houthis to attack commercial vessels and disrupt Saudi shipping in the vital Bab al-Mandeb waterway in the Red Sea. This is squeezing global oil further.
“We’ve been engaged with the Saudis a number of times over the last week in regards to that threat. It’s not a new threat, but it’s one that’s manifested itself in the past,” he told reporters in his latest remarks.
More evidence of serious damage and destruction at American military outposts in Jordan:
In words which Tehran officials will surely not find terrifying or overly threatening, Rubio continued: “At the gist of that issue is the fact Iran is in the middle of it. Talking about the troublemaker of the region, it’s Iran.”
“It’s just another example: the Houthis, Hezbollah, the militias in Iraq, Hamas – this is what Iran spends its money on, not on its people, on supporting terrorist organizations and destabilizing actors in the region,” he added in Washington’s characteristic ‘axis-speak’ of ‘rogue actors’.
END
IRAN/USA/ISRAEL THURSDAY
Oil Soars As Trump Warns Iran Will Pay For Future Houthi Shipping Attacks, Rubio Rules Out Deal
Thursday, Jul 23, 2026 – 08:55 AM
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday that Iran is “begging for a deal” and “they need to come to their senses,” adding that Tehran will “pay a very heavy price for the things they are doing.”
Speaking on the sidelines of the ASEAN conference in Manila, he claimed that “Iran is begging us, both directly and indirectly, ‘Let’s do a deal. Let’s talk.'” But the reality remains that there’s no public indicators showing this; instead, the Iranians have pretty aggressively sought to enforce their red lines, this week attacking a series of international ships in the Hormuz Strait.
Rubio tried to blame an alleged fracturing of the Iranian government, and a takeover by the ‘hardline’ faction of leadership. “The problem with Iran is every time they make a deal, the people in charge either break it or they want to change it. So it looks like they’re not ready to make a deal, so they’re going to continue to pay a price, and every night the price gets higher and higher,” he asserted.
Rubio then characterized Iran and its policies as “run by radical clerics” – calling them “oblivious” to its economic problems. In the background is the fact that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent months ago boasted that US policies and sanctions engineered a currency collapse in hopes that the January economic protests would topple the regime. This never materialized and now people in the Trump administration seem perplexed.
Rubio continued the blame-game while suggesting that if Tehran were to play ball on negotiating a deal for the Hormuz Strait, it could receive major economic benefits.
“Iran can be the richest country in the Middle East if they wanted to be. But instead, they take their money, and they use it and they give it to Hezbollah. They give it to Hamas. They give it to the Houthis. They give it to Shia militias. They give it to sponsored terrorism all over the world,” he said.
Iran “will pay a very heavy price for the things they are doing. They are already paying a heavy price,” he said. Rubio also responded to recent statements of the Iranians talking about exacting “an eye for an eye” in terms of military approach. The US top diplomat then asserted that President Trump’s approach was “a head for an eye”. He described that currently Iran’s military-industrial base is being “decimated” – suffering “billions” of dollars” in damage. This as…
The US bombs Iran for the 12th consecutive night, killing at least two people and wounding 11 others in an attack on the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iraq. Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait have reported retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran.
But what’s happening in the Red Sea right now does suggest that the Iranians have more cards to play. Their allies, the Houthis of Yemen, have initiated closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait to all Saudi shipping. At least two vessels were attacked, with unconfirmed but widely circulating video showing one on fire and in distress:
The attacks on the tankers pushed Brent up near $100 – its highest since May 26th…
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has newly announced he communicated to Saudi Crown Mohammed bin Salman Pakistan’s strong condemnation of Houthi aggression against Saudi vessels.
“Such actions are unacceptable, violate international law, threaten freedom of navigation, and undermine regional peace and security,” Sharif said in a statement on X. The PM emphasized that Pakistan stands “firmly and resolutely” with the Saudi leadership.
President Trump is threatening to take military action against the Houthis, and on Thursday morning took it a step further in saying he will hold Iran itself accountable for Houthi actions. “The US will hold Iran responsible,” he wrote, explaining that “the Houthis area a Surrogate and/or Proxy of Iran.” He warned that “major military punishment will be inflicted upon Iran and, of course, the Houthis” themselves.
As for Rubio’s remarks, there were still clear signs that the administration hasn’t totally abandon efforts to revive talks. “The president always prefers to negotiate and reach a deal… and we are prepared to do that. We’ve tried to do that now for a year and a half,” Rubio had further stated from the ASEAN conference.
But then he again reverted to the argument: “If there’s any undermining of confidence, it’s confidence that the Iranian system as it currently is structured can reach an agreement.” Rubio added, “Ships are trying to go through the Straits, and they’re getting blown up. Commercial ships are going through the Straits, and they’re being blown up.”
As for the big picture of where things stand, Former National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent highlights to nature of the current ‘all bad options’ of the table and quagmire the White House has gotten itself into.
“This is a bombing campaign in search of a strategy,” Kent wrote on X. We are choosing escalation when de-escalation remains an option, entrenching ourselves deeper into a broader war that we don’t have the capability or desire to sustain. There is not a military solution here that will lead to a win.”
Kent noted that “More bombing will not convince Iran to open the SOH or to give us the deal we want, it will only harden their position. Bombing civilian infrastructure will not make the people rise up against the regime, it will rally them around it.”
IRAN VS USA
Iran regime change ‘back on the menu’ for Trump as diplomatic pressure falters – report
Notably, any attempt to topple the regime would carry substantial risks, as Iran has survived decades of sanctions, internal protests, covert operations, and external pressures.
Iranian parliament members chant in support of the IRGC while wearing military uniforms in Tehran, Iran, February 1, 2026.(photo credit: Hamed Malekpour/Islamic consultative assembly news agency/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via )What is Trump reconsidering about Iran?➤Why is diplomacy failing with Iran?➤What is the Strait of Hormuz dispute?➤What risks does regime change carry?➤
JULY 23, 2026 13:26Updated:
JULY 23, 2026 13:53
The Trump administration is beginning to conclude that it may not be able to force Iran’s surrender through diplomacy alone, bringing the possibility of toppling the Islamic Republic back into discussions in Washington, the Financial Times‘ Chief Foreign Affairs Commentator Gideon Rachman assessed on Monday, citing unnamed parts of the Trump administration
According to the column, elements from the Trump administration are already considering economic, political, and potentially covert measures aimed at destabilizing the Iranian government after negotiations failed to produce a satisfactory outcome.
Regime change had been among Washington and Jerusalem’s original ambitions when US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched the war against Iran on February 28, the analysis said. The administration initially hoped that military pressure could help trigger a popular uprising capable of removing the Islamic Republic from power.
That expectation was not realized. Washington subsequently placed regime change on the back burner and prioritized negotiations intended to secure Iranian concessions over its nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz.
The failure of those diplomatic efforts has now renewed interest in the regime-change route, according to the analysis. Trump administration officials are reportedly examining ways to intensify economic pressure, disrupt Iran’s oil exports, cultivate contacts inside the regime, and encourage opposition groups capable of challenging Tehran’s leadership.
The renewed discussions do not mean that Trump has formally approved regime change as US policy. They suggest, however, that the administration is questioning whether negotiations can produce an Iranian surrender on terms Washington would consider acceptable.
Trump team might resort to regime change over Strait of Hormuz tensions
The dispute over the Strait of Hormuz has become a central obstacle. Iranian officials have insisted that Tehran has the right to collect fees from vessels passing through the strategic waterway, despite Trump’s earlier claim that Iran had agreed not to impose such charges.
The column also noted that Washington’s definition of victory may already be narrowing. Former US defense secretary Mark Esper suggested that the administration could ultimately settle for reopening the strait without Iranian tolls and restoring limits on Tehran’s nuclear program similar to those achieved under the Obama administration.
Such an outcome would largely restore the conditions that existed before the war, rather than deliver the decisive Iranian surrender the administration initially sought.
Even those more limited objectives may be difficult to achieve. Intensified American bombing would not necessarily secure the Strait of Hormuz, while the White House has shown little interest in deploying the ground troops that could be required to seize and hold territory near the waterway.
Retired US general Barry McCaffrey estimated that a ground operation focused on securing Hormuz could require roughly 600,000 troops and last for a year, according to the analysis.
The conflict has also demonstrated Iran’s ability to threaten critical infrastructure across the Gulf, including energy facilities, airports, military bases, and water desalination plants. Tehran’s missile and drone capabilities could become more dangerous as its technology improves and its cooperation with Russia and China expands.
Iran has already attempted to strike targets far beyond its borders. Iranian missiles were launched toward Dimona and the US-UK military base on Diego Garcia, although neither attack succeeded in striking its intended target.
The Trump administration’s renewed consideration of regime change reportedly includes proposals to block Iranian oil exports, seek cooperation from insiders within the political and security establishment, and examine ways to support domestic opposition.
The analysis also cited an alleged Israeli effort to establish contact with former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the possible revival of proposals to arm Kurdish groups inside
Any attempt to topple the regime would carry substantial risks. Iran’s government has survived decades of sanctions, internal protests, covert operations, and external pressure, while maintaining control over the security services and institutions needed to suppress opposition.
Efforts to destabilize Tehran could also produce a prolonged conflict rather than a quick collapse, particularly if the regime responds with additional missile attacks, disruption of international shipping, or strikes against American and Israeli targets.
The war is already placing pressure on US military stockpiles. Assessments of American missile inventories have indicated that the conflict consumed significant quantities of Patriot interceptors and Tomahawk cruise missiles.
Replacing some of those weapons could take between three and five years, according to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The depletion could weaken Washington’s ability to deter China or respond to a separate conflict in Asia.
Israeli officials have meanwhile assessed that Trump may be preparing to broaden the US campaign against Iran, potentially expanding attacks against strategic infrastructure and senior figures in the Iranian government. Such an escalation could increase the likelihood of direct Iranian retaliation against Israel.
END
TBN ISRAEL
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Wildberries – Russia’s Amazon – Has Seen Four Major Hubs Attacked In Quick Succession
Thursday, Jul 23, 2026 – 05:45 AM
Wildberries, which is widely referenced as ‘Russia’s Amazon’, has seen four of its top ten distribution hubs attacked by Ukrainian long-range drones in only a matter of days, potentially putting their business operations in doubt.
Stunning footage is widely circulating Wednesday of some of the latest attacks, which came overnight. A large fire broke out in the outskirts of Krasnodar in southern Russia at a sprawling Wildberries warehouse.
Regional media has cited several separate fires in the area, before which witnesses reported hearing some 20 to 30 explosions across the city and its outskirts.
Another key logistics hub for Wildberries, which is far and away the country’s biggest online retailer, was also hit in the Stavropol region overnight, resulting in the urgent evacuation of employees.
Four days prior, the company’s warehouses in central Russia were struck, which killed eight people. In the face of the Krelmin calling the attacks acts of terrorism and war crimes, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed that the hubs were “involved in providing the Russian army with drone components, navigation equipment and other gear.”
Massive fire rages in Krasnodar, Russia overnight:
The regional anti-Kremlin publication Meduza has tallied the size of the huge hubs hit and damaged in the following:
The Ukrainian military’s strike hit two Wildberries warehouses: one in Elektrostal, outside Moscow — a 250,000-square-meter (2.7-million-square-foot) facility and one of the company’s largest logistics centers — and another in Kotovsk, in the Tambov region, a 108,000-square-meter (1.2-million-square-foot) warehouse that opened only last year.
Experts estimate the Elektrostal and Kotovsk warehouses accounted for 6.5% to 9% of Wildberries’ total warehouse space. Losing them won’t paralyze the marketplace’s operations, though it could strain its logistics network. Customers are unlikely to see significantly longer delivery times, since Wildberries operates numerous sorting centers that let it reroute shipments quickly.
And additionally of note:
Wildberries isn’t formally required to compensate sellers for the damage. On July 7 — 11 days before the attack — the company changed its contract terms with sellers, exempting itself from liability for “force majeure circumstances,” a category that now includes drone attacks.
The Kremlin will no doubt take the ongoing threat and targeting of Wildberries’ hubs very seriously. Reuters has reviewed that “Together with smaller rivals, Wildberries and Ozon sell goods and services worth the equivalent of 8.5% of Russia’s gross domestic product. They provide jobs for 4 million people, or more than 5% of the country’s workforce.”
“The firms are central to the Kremlin’s plans to reinvigorate growth in a stagnating, war-focused economy,” Reuters continues. “President Vladimir Putin’s top man on the economy, Maxim Oreshkin, has been personally tasked with overseeing the sector.”
Russia has in turn also been striking some major manufacturing centers inside Ukraine, claiming that these sites are have dual civilian-military purposes, such as for drone or aircraft component production.
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
USA AND OTHERS
Gay Cruise Debacle Proves Liberals Are Deluded About Alliance With Muslims
Thursday, Jul 23, 2026 – 04:15 AM
In a world where “Queers for Palestine” is a real thing and a Muslim communist with an LGBT cabinet is the mayor of the largest city in the US, the far-left vision of total intersectional multiculturalism seems to be in reach. The only people not welcome in this new world order would be straight, white Christian conservatives and anyone else who disagrees with wokeness.
The problem is, intersectionality requires total submission to the idea that all behaviors are permissible and morality is relative. Progressives and Muslims might agree on the idea of mass immigration and the deconstruction of the west, but they don’t really agree on anything else.
The political left has run into this embarrassing quandary on a number of occasions with hilarious results. For example, third world migrants courted the empathy of liberal voters in Hamtramck, Michigan, but when the Muslims took over the local government, the first thing they did was ban the display of LGBT symbols and pride flags on city owned property. Leftists were stunned by the decision.
By extension, Muslims have learned to feign support for progressive ideology to gain entry into the west, but in Islamic countries, lefties are not welcome.
In recent news, a “gay cruise” carrying over 2000 limp-wrist passengers set sail for Turkey, only to be denied entry at the port town of Kuşadasi. Virgin Voyages’ Scarlet Lady set sail from Athens, Greece, on the 5th of July for what was billed as “an epic all-gay voyage” over 10 days. The cruise is run by Atlantis, a US company that puts on events and vacations for LGBT people
The Turkish government cited “moral values” as the reason for the rejection. The cruise then diverted to Egypt where it was once again denied at the port of Alexandria.
Passengers and entertainers on the cruise say they are shocked by the refusals, indicating a level of delusion that is impressive, even in our modern era. Patti LuPone, a 77-year-old Broadway singer performing on the ship, took to Instagram to share her dismay regarding the news.
“The Atlantis cruise I am performing on next week has been banned from entering Turkey,” she wrote. “A ship – a magnificent ship – full of gay men. And me. Denied entry to Turkey simply because of who is on board….I am furious, but I am sailing, as the ship will make other ports of call. I am ready to perform for all the wonderful men on this Atlantis cruise, who deserve so much better than this.”
Turkey banned Pride marches back in 2015. Egypt has been prosecuting people under morality laws for over a decade. It is not uncommon for gay people to be executed in Islamic countries, by government authorities or angry mobs in the streets in “honor killings”. While Turkey has not banned homosexuality, it is greatly frowned upon in the national culture.
Public displays of affection by gays can and do lead to violence in Turkey and Egypt.
The assumption among western progressives is that all minority groups fall under their umbrella.
They think because they advocate for the open immigration of third worlders this means that third worlders will advocate for leftist ideals.
This is simply not so, and an orgy ship loaded with dudes in pink speedos just found out that a big chunk of the world does not see things the way they do.
END
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER…
| Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more Is it ok for Saudi to go nuclear? Who made this decision within USA to do this? Does this weaken the US and Israel argument that Iran cannot be nuclear? Is Saudi as big a threat? why or why not? yourview? ‘SAUDI GOES NUCLEAR’, should we be concerned? what is to stop Saudi Arabia from using the nuclear rods etc. to enrich and then make nuclear weapons against Israel or other Gulf States or USA?Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 22      READ IN APP  Some say now that our POTUS Trump has become Jimmy Carter. Your opinion? I cannot see the similarity.Should we be concerned re the Saudi US agreement on nuclear? Is this a step in wrong direction?  |
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
“A Bridge Too Far”: Middle East Set For A Massive Escalation
Thursday, Jul 23, 2026 – 03:30 PM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Unless things change dramatically, the Middle East seems set for massive escalation.
President Trump yesterday warned every missile, rocket, or drone Iran fires at ships in Hormuz will be met with the destruction of an Iranian bridge or power plant.
This morning, the IRGC says a tanker is on fire after an explosion in the strait and Kuwait is under drone attack. Moreover, the Houthis claimed attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, raising the risks of a new global energy chokepoint besides Hormuz.
Reports say the US is surging military forces to the region, heavy bombers are being prepared, and Mossad is coordinating with the CIA. Equally, Iran’s Ghalibaf has stated there will be no safety if Iran’s security is not guaranteed, read as more or less a declaration of war against the entire region’s infrastructure and energy should its own be hit.
Worse, Iranian strikes on CIA Middle-East facilities are prompting US questions about Russian involvement, which would conflate the war more deeply with Russia-Ukraine, where epic damage to Russian energy, shipping, and logistics infrastructure continues to mount. On that note, after Kazakhstan was forced to stop piping oil via the Black Sea due Ukraine’s drone attacks, the EU is launching a mission to board Russian shadow fleet ships in the Indian Ocean; however, Russian LNG is to remain exempt from EU sanctions – realpolitik or real weakness?
In the Middle East, the UK is evacuating its remaining diplomatic personnel from Iran, just as it did the day before the Iran war started in February, but Bulgaria is aiding US military operations from its territory. That could potentially make it a target for Iranian reprisals – and it’s a NATO and EU member, each with collective defense clauses.
If we see military escalation, it’s likely to drive energy prices even higher than the $95.5 level Brent was at this morning with benchmark crack spreads at $68. However, it’s unlikely to last long. Neither the US nor Israel, nor Iran, nor the GCC can sustain a no-holds-barred war for long – and the world economy obviously can’t either. As such, we may be close to the beginning of the end of this crisis – it’s just unclear if it will prove a bridge too far for the US or Iran.
Meanwhile, the White House is considering military options in Mali, where the Al-Qaeda-linked JNIM are advancing on the capital. That risks further US overstretch. Then again, after the former imperial power France and arrivistes Russia both got a bloody nose in the country, it doesn’t look like anyone else is going to act against these jihadis – certainly not Europe, though Mali uses the West African CFA franc that is pegged to the Euro. Of course, Mali is also rich in resources.
As climactic in geoeconomics —but likely to last much longer than events in the Middle East— yesterday saw Financial Times editor Martin Wolf ask, “Who will win the war of neo-mercantilists?”, making clear, “We are living in a mercantilist era.” We aren’t, because we don’t all want to hoard gold (yet) so it’s a neo-mercantilism that wants national-security trade surpluses – but he’s close enough. Likewise, Stephen Roach today asks in the same paper, “How long can China defy history and logic with its imbalances?” and argues, “The country is demanding far too much of a world fixated on cheap consumer goods.”
This looks a Damascene conversion for a media source that long rejected that a now undeniable reality we’ve been arguing for since 2015, along with every Western policy step that could have prevented its emergence, while instead cheering everything that accelerated its arrival.
Yet will the Establishment financial press now offer analysis that adapts to a new old world?
It seems unlikely looking at the Bloomberg response to Trump’s planned 100% generic drug tariffs with a two-year delay: “But prices will go up!” Really? Such drugs have a low labor input; shipping them in from abroad costs a lot; and this overlooks the national-security argument – a Great Power cannot be reliant on others for key medicines, among other things. (Plus, the EU says its generic exports to the US are protected by last year’s EU-US trade deal.)
In short, even the FT is now implying that if you use the terms “economic statecraft” or “neo-mercantilism,” yet default to “But prices will go up!” when they are in action, then you don’t understand either – nor that those making decisions in the US, China, and elsewhere do.
The looming implications of this are potentially explosive, and already evident:
- The US Congress is again exploring tariffs and/or sanctions to counter China’s shipbuilding dominance; the USTR says the US isn’t getting the critical minerals from China it had been promised; Boeing has asked the US to intervene over a record EU loan to Airbus; and Mercedes risks a US sales ban under Senate China bill that penalises Chinese ownership and tech, which the German car-marker had happily embraced even with that threat overhanging it.
- EU tariffs on China have accelerated Korean tire makers’ exit from the country: imagine what broader EU tariffs might achieve (beyond “But prices will go up!”) “Voila! l’art de gouverner par l’économie!” – indeed, many of the early neo-mercantilists were Europeans. That said, a report calls the bloc’s 2040 target to double its electrification an “unattainable dreamland.”
- Nvidia’s CEO unsurprisingly defended Chinese AIs that might use lots of his chips; Axios reports that an OpenAI AI models “went rogue during testing.”; and AI-driven soaring memory chips costs are forcing others, such as Asian carmakers, to consider price hikes.
- In markets, where this all ultimately ends up, the White House is still looking at the Fed. Bloomberg reports Barr may be ousted over her conduct during the SVB bailout. That could open the door for another pro-Trump voice on the FOMC, as a legal sword still hangs over Cook’s tenure and a recent Supreme Court ruling has opened the door to even more sweeping changes.
More mundane, today saw Aussie jobs data at 76.3K, which is the equivalent of a US payrolls print of 1,000K. That’s after news that the limp economy is seeing the worst per capita income trend since WW1. What, beyond bad data, could allow that staggering divergence? Expect more questions about political economy to erupt – and more resistance from the usual crowd.
To conclude, are Hormuz and the Red Sea a bridge too far for the US or Iran? Is the emergence of neo-mercantilism a bridge too far for traditional macro-commentary (or macro-ideology)? Is the Fed a bridge too far for the White House? All three are linked: we have to wait for the outcomes.
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS//ENERGY COMMENTARIES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1425 UP 0.0013
USA/ YEN 163.30 UP 0.230 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!! BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE. URGES PENSION AND INSUANCE FUNDS TO BUY JAPANESE BONDS
GBP/USA 1.3372 DOWN 0.0013 OR 13 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4069 DOWN 0.0017 //CDN DOLLAR UP 17 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 9.74 PTS OR 0.25%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 258.40 PTS OR 0.39%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.71%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 281.84 PTS OR 1.13%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.74 PTS OR 0.25%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.71%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 258.40 PTS OR 0.39%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: $4096.50
silver:$58.95
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 47.24 UP 2 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 78.41 ROUBLE// DOWN 0 ROUBLE AND 44 BASIS PTS. WOULD YOU BELIEVE THAT THE RUSSIAN ROUBLE AND THE ISRAEL SHEKEL ARE THE STRONGEST CURRENCIES BESIDES THE DOLLAR .
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.0830 UP 5 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.775 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.592 UP 3 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.221 UP 5 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early THURSDAY MORNING: 100.89 UP 2 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.554% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.730% UP 1 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.880 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.656 UP 3 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 4,034 UP 4 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.1892 UP 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1409 UP 0.0007 OR 7 basis points
USA/Japan: 163.09 DOWN 0.097 OR YEN IS UP 10 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.0556 UP 2 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.763 UP 2 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 15 BASIS pts to 1.4092
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The USA/Yuan CNY 6.77321ON SHORE ..DOWN
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH DOWN TO 6.7750
TURKISH LIRA: 47.22 PLUS 2 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.6444% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.144 UP 1 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.274 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
DATA FROM THIS POINT NOT UPDATED.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4117.50
SILVER AT 10;00: 58.89
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY
DAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM///
London: CLOSED UP 143/12 PTS OR 1.35%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 164.65 PTS OR 0.66%
FRANCE: UP 82.43 OR 0.99 PTS
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 204.20 PTS OR 1.05 %
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 499.04 PTS OR 0.95%
WTI Oil price 86.85 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 94.93 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 78.55 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 18 / 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.597 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.201 UP 6 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM//
Euro vs USA 1.1411 UP 0.0009 OR 9 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3372 DOWN 0.0006 OR 6 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 5.0384 UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.752 DOWN 0 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.741 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.866 DOWN 2 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 163.134 DOWN 0.0.053 OR YEN UP 5 BASIS PTS//GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM 160.00/ EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4086 DOWN 0.0019 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 19 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 87.14
Brent OIL: 94.30
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS pts to 4.665
USA 30 yr bond yield: UP 2 PTS to 5.153%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.306 UP 5 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.602 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.219 UP 6 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 100.99 UP 22 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 47.21 UP 2 BASIS PTS GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 77.97 UP 0 AND 40/100 roubles //
GOLD $4134.50 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 59.83 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 5.29 POINTS OR 0.01%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 157.08 PTS OR 0.58%
VOLATILITY INDEX 16.87 DOWN 0.21 PTS OR 1.06%
GLD: $ 379/12 UP 4.31 PTS OR 1.15%
SLV/ 53.92 PTS UP 0.84 OR 1.58%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 107.30 PTS OR 0.30%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Hypershrinkers & Hormuz Hell: Oil Soars, Tech Wrecks, Rate-Hike Odds Rip
WRAP UP;
Stocks hit on tech earnings while Brent reclaims USD 100/bbl – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Thursday, Jul 23, 2026 – 03:49 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold down
- REAR VIEW: Yemen’s Houthis targeted two Saudi oil tankers in Red Sea; US CENTCOM says completed the 12th consecutive night of strikes against Iran; GOOGL capex raise and concern on short term margins outweighs earnings beat; US initial claims fall to multi-decade lows; Weak US 10yr TIPS auction; ECB hold rates as expected; TSLA hit on profit miss; Aussie jobs report beats
- COMING UP: Data: Global PMIs Flash (Jul), Japanese Inflation (Jun), German GfK Consumer Confidence (Aug), UK Retail Sales (Jun), Canadian PPI (Jun). Events: BoE DMP (Jul). Speakers: ECB’s Lane. Supply: Australia. Credit Ratings: Scope Ratings on Norway.
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MARKET WRAP
It was a risk-off session on Thursday, with tech stocks leading the downside following a flurry of earnings, as both Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) posted extensive losses. Alphabet was weighed on after it raised its CapEx plans, reigniting concerns around elevated spending among the tech giants, alongside negative free cash flow and further margin pressures. The higher CapEx outlook, however, supported memory names, which stand to benefit from increased tech spending. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) was hit after a profit miss.
Adding to the risk-off sentiment was the sharp rally in crude prices amid further geopolitical escalation. The Houthis attacked Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea, while the US struck Iran using B-1 bombers for the first time since the resumption of hostilities. Meanwhile, Iran is reportedly refusing to budge on its current proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, while further explosions were heard in Kuwait and Jordan this evening, reportedly linked to Iranian missiles. The escalations saw Brent crude reclaim USD 100/bbl, peaking around USD 102/bbl.
The rise in crude prices prompted a further bear flattening of the Treasury curve as higher energy prices fuelled inflation concerns and bolstered expectations for further Fed tightening. Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims reinforced the picture of a resilient labour market, with initial claims falling to a multi-decade low.
The combination saw traders add to Fed rate hike bets, with around 38bps of tightening now priced by year-end, fully pricing one 25bp hike and assigning roughly a 52% probability of a second. Attention now turns to next week’s FOMC meeting, where a hold remains the base case, although markets have increasingly priced the risk of an immediate hike, currently at around 40%.
In FX, the Dollar gained as it tracked Treasury yields higher, while weakness in equities also supported haven demand. The Canadian Dollar led the gains among its peers on the back of higher crude prices. The antipodeans generally lagged amid the risk-off environment, although NZD notably underperformed AUD. The Yen weakened further, although USD/JPY briefly saw a sharp move lower without an obvious catalyst before quickly paring the move.
US
JOBLESS CLAIMS: Initial jobless claims fell sharply to 187k in the week ending July 18th (exp. 212k, prev. 209k revised from 208k), while the four-week moving average declined to 207.5k from 214.75k, pointing to continued strength in the labour market. Continuing claims (w/e July 11th) edged lower to 1.796mln from the prior week’s revised 1.798mln (prev. 1.805mln), while the insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2%. In the unadjusted numbers, initial claims totalled 192,296, falling by 53,718 (-21.8%) W/W, a considerably larger decline than the 31,379 (-12.8%) decrease expected by seasonal factors. Looking at the advance state breakdown (NSA), the largest declines were seen in New York (-16,954), Michigan (-4,977), California (-3,932), Texas (-2,453), and Pennsylvania (-2,350), while only a handful of states recorded increases, led by Louisiana (+204), Delaware (+168), Vermont (+50), and Alaska (+12).
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (U6) SETTLED 10+ TICKS LOWER AT 108-03
Treasury yields advanced on Thursday as oil prices continued to climb while jobless claims fell to a multi-decade low. At settlement, 2-year +5.6bps at 4.360%, 3-year +5.4bps at 4.395%, 5-year +5.0bps at 4.457%, 7-year +5.0bps at 4.576%, 10-year +4.0bps at 4.699%, 20-year +3.2bps at 5.204%, 30-year +2.0bps at 5.169%.
THE DAY: Treasuries sold off across the curve on Thursday, led by the front end, as oil prices continued to climb amid escalating geopolitical tensions, lifting inflation expectations.
The US-Iran conflict continued to escalate overnight, with fears growing that military operations could intensify further. CENTCOM announced it had completed a 12th consecutive night of strikes against Iran, targeting Iranian military assets including maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, surveillance sites and air defence assets. Reports also suggested the US used B-1 bombers for the first time since hostilities resumed. Meanwhile, reports throughout Thursday suggested President Trump is close to deciding whether to expand the campaign into something “bigger than ever before” and more aggressive than Operation Epic Fury, although no final decision has been made. Reports also continued to suggest Israel is prepared to join the operation if required, although only in response to an Iranian attack. Meanwhile, Trump announced he will hold Houthi’s responsible for attacking two Saudi Arabian ships in the Red Sea last night – potentially widening the conflict in the Middle East if more ships are struck.
US data also leaned hawkish, with initial jobless claims falling sharply to just 187k, the lowest level since 1969. Oxford Economics cautioned that the unusually large decline may have been influenced by seasonal factors, but said the exceptionally low level of claims nevertheless highlights subdued layoffs and continued underlying labour-market strength. Elsewhere, the ECB decision was largely as expected, although Bloomberg subsequently reported that officials are prepared to raise rates in September.
Overall, the continued rise in crude prices is adding to inflation concerns, while the sharp decline in jobless claims reinforces signs of a resilient labour market. Together, the developments strengthened the case for Fed tightening, with around 10bps now priced for next week’s meeting, implying roughly a 40% probability of a 25bp hike. Meanwhile, around 38bps of tightening is priced by year-end, fully pricing one hike and assigning roughly a 52% probability of a second.
SUPPLY
Notes
- US sold USD 21bln of 10-year TIPS; Tail 2.8bps.
- US to sell USD 69bln 2-year notes and USD 70bln 5-year notes on July 27; to sell USD 44bln 7-year notes on July 28; to sell USD 30bln 2yr FRN on July 29th; all to settle on July 31st.
Bills
- US to sell USD 92bln 13-week bills and USD 79bln 26-week bills on July 27; to sell USD 95bln 6-week bills on July 28; all to settle on July 30
- US sold 4-wk bills at high-rate 3.730%, B/C 2.79x; sold 8-wk bills at high-rate 3.795%, B/C 2.31x
STIRS / OPERATIONS
- Fed Pricing: 38bps (prev. Dec 35.6bps)
- EFFR at 3.63% (prev. 3.63%), volumes at USD 102bln (prev. USD 106bln) on July 22nd
- SOFR at 3.62% (prev. 3.61%), volumes at USD 3.026tln (prev. USD 2.975tln) on July 22nd
- NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.90bln (prev. 0.38bln) across 6 counterparties (prev. 2) on July 23rd
CRUDE
WTI (U6) SETTLED USD 5.36 HIGHER AT 92.19/BBL; BRENT (U6) SETTLED USD 6.62 HIGHER AT 100.69/BBL
The crude complex further extended on its week rally as US/Iran relations shown no sign of improving, or attacks de-escalating. Overnight, US and Iran exchanged strikes for a 12th consecutive night while Yemeni Houthis threatened further supply disruptions, as they attacked oil tankers in the Red Sea. Trump later annnounced he will hold Iran and the Houthis themselves will be responsible if they attack ships again. Continuing to add to the picture, US President Trump said today he is “considering a massive attack greater than anything before, I’m close to making a decision”, noting “Israel will join in within 2 minutes if I ask”. Within the interview, the President didn’t give a timeline for his decision but added they [Iran] haven’t received enough pain yet. As such, Brent breached USD 100/bbl for the first time since May, to hit a peak of USD 102.00/bbl, while WTI topped out at USD 93.50/bbl. Ahead, there is a lack of US data on Friday before a big week of risk events next week, headline by the latest FOMC confab and ongoing geopolitcal developments.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -1.21% at 7,408, NDX -1.87% at 28,455, DJI -0.97% at 51,717, RUT -0.67% at 2,940
SECTORS: Communication Services -5.20%, Consumer Discretionary -5.12%, Consumer Staples -1.14%, Technology -1.12%, Materials -0.99%, Financials -0.34%, Real Estate -0.07%, Utilities +0.52%, Energy +0.56%, Health +1.29%, Industrials +1.77%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 -1.63% at 6,214, Dax 40 -1.77% at 24,709, FTSE 100 -0.73% at 10,639, CAC 40 -1.64% at 8,299, FTSE MIB -2.80% at 51,316, IBEX 35 -1.55% at 19,267, PSI -0.27% at 9,253, SMI -0.71% at 14,215, AEX -1.28% at 1,087
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Alphabet (GOOGL): Sharply higher AI capex forecast overshadowed strong cloud rev.
- Tesla (TSLA): Profit missed as discounting, weaker regulatory credit income, margin pressure, heavy AI & robotics spending outweighed record vehicle deliveries.
- IBM (IBM): Weak results, but came after dismal Q2 prelim figures.
- Texas Instruments (TXN): Upbeat forecast failed to meet lofty exp. after a recent strong rally, despite broad growth across industrial, data centre & autos.
- ServiceNow (NOW): EPS, rev. & subscription rev. all topped.
- CSX (CSX): Top & bottom line surpassed expected.
- Southwest Airlines (LUV): Profit light w/ disappointing FY EPS guide.
- RTX (RTX): Stellar Q. metrics & outlook.
- Thermo Fisher (TMO): Rev., adj. EBIT & adj. EPS beat
- Honeywell (HON): Rev. surpassed Wall St. consensus.
- Bleecker Street Research publishes short report on Lyft (LYFT).
- OpenAI is launching Health in ChatGPT.
- AMD (AMD) said new server CPU has a wide lead over Arm (ARM) based chips; says new EPYC has 20% more performance than Nvidia (CPU); AMD and Cerebras (CBRS) to deliver AI inference that combines AMD Helios GPU rack with Cerebras Wafer-scale chip.
FX
Dollar strength followed the rally in US yields which saw new YTD highs in the short and belly of the curve. Oil prices’ sharp rise is showing no sign of a break, with yet again, no signs of imminent deescalation. The Houthis targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. Regarding Trump, N12 reported that US President Trump said today he is “considering a massive attack greater than anything before, I’m close to making a decision”, noting “Israel will join in within 2 minutes if I ask”. Also, likely behind USD strength was the risk-off tone in response to Alphabet earnings keeping concerns elevated over capex raises, negative free cash flow, and short term margin pressure. Separately, the Fed’s greater focus on the inflation mandate will have only gotten bigger following the latest initial claims data which shows even more stability than previously thought, dropping to their lowest level in almost 60 years, 187k (exp. 212k). DXY sits near highs of 101.54.
EUR tracked the stronger Buck with the ECB meeting not providing any surprises as President Lagarde likely intended. The statement was largely a reiteration from the ECB, though one that sparked a modest dovish reaction after the statement stuck to the data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting and no-commitment language, despite recent energy upside. As such, a modest unwinding of hawkish bets took place. The presser also did not spark much of a reaction, Lagarde noted the decision was unanimous, and that some members questioned whether ECB should have hiked today. Later on, Bloomberg reports, citing sources, noted that ECB officials are said to be ready to raise rates in September. Again, EUR/USD saw little move; now sits around 1.1377.
Antipodes were the worst performer on the risk-off day, further weighed by higher oil prices and weaker gold prices. The downward move came in AUD despite initial strength in response to a better-than-expected jobs report. Employment grew 76.3k in June (exp. 15k), with the u/e rate holding steady at 4.4%. The surprise beat may have contributed to the underperformance in NZD via rotation as seen in AUD/NZD rising to 1.2070 from earlier lows of 1.1935.
ZAR was amongst the worst EM’s against USD following an unexpected SARB decision to keep rates unchanged, despite expectations for a 25bps hike. The vote was a 4-2 split, with the minority favouring a 25bps hike.
USA DATA RELEASES
AIpocalypse No! Initial Jobless Claims Collapse To Lowest Since 1969
Thursday, Jul 23, 2026 – 08:39 AM
Amid ongoing exclamations of an AIpocalypse in the jobs market, the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time crashed to just 187k last week (well below expectations)…
That is the lowest since 1969…
Additionally, continuous jobless claims tumbled back below 1.8mm (1.796mm) Americans…
Zero signs of labor market stress in any of this data as the ‘low hire, no fire’ economy pushes forward.
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
Secret Service Official Sounds Alarm: “Threat Environment Highest Ever” As Assassination Attempts Explode
Wednesday, Jul 22, 2026 – 06:00 PM
The threat environment facing individuals under U.S. Secret Service protection, including President Trump, is the highest the agency has ever recorded, a senior official said during a background briefing with reporters, according to CNBC.
Getty Images
“What we’re seeing now is something I’ve never seen before,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity ahead of a public briefing.
The Secret Service has logged roughly 10,000 cases involving threats against government officials, including Supreme Court justices, so far in 2026 – a 40% increase from the same period a year earlier.
“They’re increasing in volume and complexity,” the official warned. The agency has also recorded a tenfold increase in mental-health commitments of individuals suspected of threatening protectees.
The remarks landed a week after Justice Amy Coney Barrett told a House subcommittee that threats against her and her colleagues on the Court have risen sharply.
Why They’re Briefing Now
The timing is not incidental. The briefing came ahead of Friday’s rescheduled White House Correspondents’ Association dinner at the Waldorf Astoria, which Trump is expected to attend.
It needed rescheduling because of what happened at the last one. In April, a man carrying a shotgun, a handgun and knives stormed a security checkpoint at the Washington Hilton during the dinner, with the president in attendance, before being apprehended. Cole Tomas Allen now faces charges of attempting to assassinate the president.
That was not an isolated event. On May 4, a man was wounded in a firefight with Secret Service personnel near the Washington Monument. Three weeks later, on May 23, a gunman approached the White House while Trump was inside the residence, drew a firearm and discharged multiple rounds before being fatally shot by agents. In February, Secret Service and local police shot and killed a man armed with a shotgun who had breached a secure perimeter at Mar-a-Lago.
Four incidents in six months, at four separate protected sites. That is the ledger behind the 40% figure.
The Butler Problem
The current alarm builds on two assassination attempts in 2024. On July 13 of that year, gunman Thomas Matthew Crooks opened fire at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, killing attendee Corey Comperatore and seriously wounding two others.
An Office of Inspector General report found that the Secret Service missed more than 100 radio transmissions from local law enforcement about a suspicious individual – now believed to be Crooks – armed with a rangefinder and rifle. Agents failed to relay critical warnings, establish proper joint communications, or secure the rooftop vantage point.
Those findings describe a catastrophic operational breakdown. They do not describe complicity, and the OIG made no such finding. But for the family of the man who died there, the distinction has offered cold comfort.
Comperatore’s widow, Helen Comperatore, made headlines last week when she suggested the attempt on Trump’s life was “an inside job.”
“I believe he was working with somebody,” she told NewsNation. “I believe it was an inside job, inside the government somewhere.” No investigation has produced evidence supporting that claim, and the agency has attributed the failures to breakdowns in communication and planning.
Two months after Butler, a Secret Service officer fired at another gunman, Ryan Routh, who had concealed himself in shrubbery near the perimeter of Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida. Routh was convicted in Florida federal court last September of attempting to assassinate the president, among other charges, and is serving a life sentence.
The Problem Above The Perimeter
The concern growing fastest inside the agency is one that walks past every countermeasure it has spent a century building. Drones approach from outside conventional security perimeters and cannot be screened, wanded, or turned away at a checkpoint.
The scale is no longer theoretical. The FBI said this week it seized more than 700 illegal drones and detected roughly 1,600 in total across the eleven U.S. stadiums hosting World Cup matches – venues holding tens of thousands of people at a time.
Secret Service Director Sean Curran has said the agency is examining “kinetic solutions – something that we haven’t done before,” and has pushed its technology division to move faster. The OIG’s Butler review separately faulted the agency’s counter-drone training and preparedness, a gap it has since worked to close.
The Foreign File
More recently, Israel shared intelligence with the U.S. indicating a fresh Iranian plot to assassinate Trump, according to the Wall Street Journal. Iran has for years publicly vowed retaliation for the 2020 killing of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qassem Soleimani, and the ongoing war has sharpened concern about foreign actors targeting the president.
U.S. Secret Service Director Sean Curran testifies during the House Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee hearing in the Rayburn building in Washington, April 16, 2026. Tom Williams | CQ-Roll Call, Inc. | Getty Image
END
House Passes Defense Policy Bill That Attaches SAVE America Act
Wednesday, Jul 22, 2026 – 09:45 PM
Authored by Jackson Richman via The Epoch Times,
The House of Representatives on July 22 passed a $1.15 trillion defense policy bill that attaches a key election integrity bill championed by President Donald Trump.
The tally for the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) was 216–212.
Six Democrats crossed the aisle to back passage of the bill, while six Republicans – among them Reps. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) and Chip Roy (R-Texas) – opposed the bill.
Amendments introduced by Republicans were voted on late on July 21; some of them passed and some were rejected. One amendment that passed was cutting the defense budget by 0.5 percent if the Pentagon fails an audit. The amendment, which passed by voice vote, cut funding that would go to the Treasury Department. Exempted from the amendment are military personnel, reserve personnel, National Guard troops, and Defense Health Program accounts. The Pentagon failed its eighth consecutive audit in 2025.
With the final vote, Republicans agreed to attach their election integrity bill, the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) America Act, to the defense measure following its passage. House Republicans have attached the SAVE America Act to other major bills passed this month by the lower congressional chamber and forwarded to the Senate.
The House passage comes a week after Senate Democrats blocked a procedural vote to advance the NDAA in the upper congressional chamber. The tally was 50–46, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) switched his vote from yes to no so that he could again bring up the motion to invoke cloture, which requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster.
The Senate Armed Services Committee advanced the bill to the Senate floor on June 11 in a bipartisan 18–9 vote.
However, Republicans and Democrats failed to agree on top-line defense and non-defense spending levels, creating tension between the two sides.
Democrats cited the resumption of the war in Iran as a reason for their opposition to the procedural vote.
“Now the White House has formally notified Congress that hostilities have resumed, that American strikes are underway again and our forces remain positioned for more,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on the floor before the vote.
“Yet Republicans want the Senate to take up the NDAA, the defense bill, as though none of this is happening.”
Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) said the vote was unprecedented.
“It’s unprecedented not to pass the motion to proceed on the NDAA, and it reflects a decision and a mindset on the part of … Schumer not to cooperate at all because so much of this has been done on a bipartisan basis,” he said.
“It really is a new low.”
The $1.15 trillion measure would allocate almost $1.1 trillion to the Department of War, more than $41.14 billion to the Energy Department to manage the nation’s nuclear arsenal, and $11 billion to other defense-related activities.
The NDAA includes a 3.6 percent pay raise for all military members.
It would also fund educational agencies affected by the enrollment of military and Department of War civilian dependents.
Many House conservatives have for weeks pushed for House leaders to put pressure on the Senate to pass the SAVE America Act.
The legislation is highly favored by President Donald Trump, who has called it a “common sense” measure to require photo ID to register to vote and ensure that only eligible voters cast ballots.
Critics of the bill say that it would make it harder to vote, imposing strict requirements that would require most Americans to have either a U.S. passport or a copy of their birth certificate to vote.
Democrats in the Senate have vowed to oppose the bill, and its prospects with the upper chamber’s Republicans are unclear.
In view of these difficulties, Republicans are also pursuing passage of a grant-style program that would provide rewards for states that pursue programs similar to the SAVE America Act.
KING NEWS
| he King Report July 23, 2026 Issue 7789 | Independent View of the News |
| Axios: President Trump is nearing a decisive fork in the Iran war, with U.S. and Israeli officials envisioning only two viable endgames: Option 1: Pursue a new 10-day ceasefire aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Option 2: Launch a massive joint military campaign with Israel to force Tehran’s capitulation. https://www.axios.com/2026/07/21/iran-war-ceasefire-proposal-trump-troops The U.S. is surging forces, medics and weaponry to the Middle East to give President Donald Trump more muscular military options as he considers expanding the conflict against Iran: WSJ In the past week, special-operations forces have deployed to the region from their U.S. bases, according to flight-tracking data and U.S. officials. Squadrons of jet fighters have been staged across the Middle East, and bomber aircraft at bases in the U.S. and U.K. are on high alert to ramp up operations… https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-surges-forces-toward-middle-east-giving-trump-options-to-expand-iran-war-e5d627b1 @realDonaldTrump: From this point forward, any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by Missile, Rocket, Drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT, including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran. Thank you for your attention to this matter! 8:56 ET July 22, 2026 @ekwufinance: Brent premium for prompt delivery (1-6 month spread) is surging. It’s up 22% today. In just one month, it went from -$0.50 to +$12.46/bbl. This move is unprecedented. It’s not just refined products… The physical oil market is extremely tight. https://x.com/ekwufinance/status/2079955572250611986 The oil market is in backwardization. Normally futures prices increase for later months due to insurance, cost to carry, storage, etc. When the physical market is tight, close months have higher prices. In early trading on Wednesday, oil and gasoline rallied smartly. August Gasoline hit 348.45 cents, surpassing its May high of 347.81. Diesel hit another record high, 423.25 cents. September WTI Oil hit $88.61. It was $67.12 on July 2, 2026, just three weeks ago. July CPI and PPI should be horrid! Some forced oil lower after its high at 5:50 ET. This scheme has appeared regularly (It occurred on Monday), especially during European trading when the futures market is thin. Precious metals rallied sharply with August Gold +$92.40 at its high. USUs fell modestly. The big news on Wednesday: The 2-year note hit 4.308%, surpassing the 7/13/2026 high (4.285%). The Effective Fed Funds Rate on Wednesday was 3.62%. Ergo, the previous acclaimed sacrosanct 2-year Note Model mandates 3 Fed rate hikes of 25bps! We warned last week that despite the hoopla over the good June CPI and PPI reports on sharply lower energy prices, gasoline prices and diesel prices soared in July. Backwardly looking traders created a modest bond rally around the June CPI and PPI reports. But Mr. Bond looks forward more often than not. The next key levels for the 2-year Note: 4.381% (1/10/25), 4.401% (7/29/24) and then 4.5%. NQUs did an ABC decline from a modestly lower opening on Tuesday night until they hit a daily low of 28952.00 (-364.00) at 8:56 ET. The usual suspects, conditioned to buy for the NYSE opening, manically bought, and drove NQUs to 29162.25 (+210.25 from low) at 9:33 ET. The SOX Index opened on its low (12113.98, -242.216). It jumped to 12379.48 (+23.316) at 9:59 ET. The NY Fang+ Index did the opposite of the SOX Index: It opened at its high (17459.73, unchanged) and quickly sank. It hit a low of 17280.40 (-179.33) at 10:42 ET. ESUs traded like NQUs. They had an ABC decline to a daily low of 7504.00 (-41.75) at 8:56 ET and then soared to 7556.25 at 10:02 ET. A pro dump pushed ESUs down to 7528.75 at 10:44 ET. The rally manipulation for the 11:30 ET Euro close forced ESUs to a daily high of 7559.50 (+13.75) at 11:26 ET. After a modest retreat to 7550.50 at 11:40 ET on liquidation for the European close, ESUs plodded to a new daily high of 7563.50 (+17.75) at 12:15 ET. ESUs then fell to 7542,25 at 14:11 ET. After a modest rebound, ESUs settled into a 7-handle range until they broke lower at 15:07 ET. After falling to 7535.75 at 15:59 ET, the illegal late manipulation forced ESUs to 7552.50 at 16:02 ET. With stocks and major indices ‘marked up’ by the late ESU manipulation, traders sought to liquidate. ESUs fell to Positive aspects of previous session Fangs and AI-related stocks rallied after an opening drop. The SOX Index closed +0.44%. Someone forced oil lower after its high at 5:50 ET. This scheme has appeared regularly. Trump to seek Congress approval for Saudi Arabia nuclear energy pact that lacks safeguards… Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has long said if Iran developed a nuclear weapon, Saudi Arabia would too, fueling concern among arms control advocates and some U.S. lawmakers over a civil nuclear deal. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-seek-congress-approval-saudi-arabia-nuclear-energy-pact-that-lacks-2026-07-22/ Why a proposed US-Saudi nuclear deal worries some in Washington and the Middle East (Israel) https://www.reuters.com/world/why-does-saudi-arabia-want-civil-nuclear-deal-with-us-2026-07-22/ Negative aspects of previous session The 2-year note yield hit 4.308%. USUS were -13/32 at 16:00 ET. The NY Fang+ Index fell Gasoline, oil, and diesel fuel rallied smartly. Oil rallied $2.09, and is in backwardization. Ambiguous aspects of previous session How long can equity jockeys insouciantly dismiss negative fundamentals, notably higher yields? Is the US forcing oil futures lower during European trading when the market is thin? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7503.58 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7525.94 (12:33 ET); 7485.85 (9:30 ET) We noted a week or so ago that the S&P 500 Index was trying to breakout to the upside. Despite the unwavering urge to buy AI Bubble stocks and some Fangs, the index has failed to breakout. If the S&P 500 Index does not breakout next week, lookout below! Fangs reporting season will be largely over and the Fed meets. The market does NOT expect a rate hike. But forward-looking models see that July CPI and PPI should be substantially higher on soaring energy prices in July. Plus, the bond market, notably the 2-Yr Note is imploring the Fed to hike rates meaningfully. If the Fed does NOT hike rates next week, it will be further behind the curve, and it will look cravenly foolish if/when July CPI and PPI are reported before the next FOMC Meeting on September 16. Even worse, the August CPI Report is due on September 11 and the Aug PPI on September 10. No rate hike next week, and the Fed must adjust to two CPI and two PPI reports before its next FOMC Meeting. After the close, Google reported Q2 Revenue ex-TAC $103.62B, e$101.07B exp; Revenue $119.80B, $117.02B exp; EPS of 9.11 (2.1 exp) a gain on securities of $99.03B; Operating Income $40.77B, $40.55B exp; Services Revenue $94.54B, $94.32B exp; Cloud Revenue $24.77B, $22.46B exp; Advertising Revenue $81.63B, $81.12B exp; Search & Other Revenue $63.27B, $63.28B exp YouTube Ads Revenue $11.06B, $10.81B exp; CapEx $44.92B, $44.15B exp; Operating Margin 34%, 34.7% exp; Hedging gain of $106m, $75.7m exp; Google vacillated wildly after its results, jumping to 353.78 (342.09 close), tumbling to 331.00 five minutes later, jumping to 350.89 nine minutes later and tanking to 327.37 at 16:59 ET. Google hyped that its Gemini Ap has 950 million MAUs (Monthly Avg Users); and Gemini models now process 22B API tokens per minute. 1st time ever, Google had negative cash flow! https://x.com/StockMKTNewz/status/2080032854663110797 IBM reported Q2 Operating EPS $2.93 vs. $2.80 y/y; Revenue $17.16B, 17.52B exp; Software Revenue $7.76B, $7.99B exp; Free Cash Flow $2.54B, $2.95B exp; Sees FY Revenue (constant FX) +4% to +5% vs. prior above +5%; Says still on track to deliver a quantum computer by 2029. IBM sank to 199.77 (205.77 close) but rallied to 216.70 three minutes later on quantum computer hype & hope plus short covering. IBM fell to 209.69 at 16:35 ET. Tesla reported Q2 Adj. EPS 0.33, 0.51 exp; Revenue $28.24B, $26.32B exp; Automotive rev. $20.52B, $18.68B exp; Gross margin 16.8%, 19.4% exp; Services and other rev. $4.58B, $3.72B exp; Energy generation and storage Rev. $3.14B, $3.77B exp; FCF -$1.09B, -$3.64B; Capex $5.79B, $6.59B expected; TSLA sank 3.6% as of 16:15 ET. Trump at Cobb, Georgia rally: Stock Market Keeps Hitting Highs – BBG 15:53 ET Trump: Iran Getting Hit so Hard, They Want to Make a Deal – BBG 15:53 ET (Who believes this?) Trump: Oil Will Come Tumbling Down – BBG 15:56 ET Trump Says Iran Not Ready for Deal Yet, But Will Be ‘Very Soon’ – BBG 16:00 ET Trump: You’ll Have a Shutdown in September – BBG ‘Fallling Apart’: Trump’s Boeing deal hits turbulence with Beijing – Politico 17:01 ET China “Is insisting on new conditions to the preliminary agreement… long-term guarantee on the supply of Boeing engine parts…” @CENTCOM: At 5:30 p.m. ET today, U.S. forces began launching more strikes against Iranian military targets at the Commander in Chief’s direction. The mission will continue to further degrade Iran’s ability to threaten civilian mariners & commercial vessels transiting regional waters. 6:04 PM Yemen’s Houthis claim attack on two Saudi oil tankers (in the Red Sea) https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/22/yemens-houthis-claim-attack-on-two-saudi-oil-tankers Today –We opined that discerning traders would be largely inert on Wednesday because they wanted to see how the market reacts to IBM, Tesla, and Google’s results. Pro traders see that Google sank as much as 4.3% after soaring; IBM turned negative after soaring; Tesla got hammered. If ‘they’ are using Fangs and tech results to liquidate, the S&P breakout cannot occur. And if the S&P 500 Index does NOT breakout next week, look out below! And if the Fed hikes rates… NQUs sank on Wednesday night to a low of 29101.75 (-159.50) at 19:03 ET. Traders eagerly bought! ESUs are -7.00; NQUs are -10.75; USUs are -2/32; WTI Oil is +1.29; Gasoline is +2.59 at 20:10 ET. Expected Impact Earnings: DOW 1.30, LMT 7.14, CMCSA .97, NSC 3.31, UNP 3.24, INTC .21 Expected Economic Data: Initial Jobless Claims 211k, Continuing Claims 1.809m, KC Fed Mfg. 1 S&P 500 Index (7498.96 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6248.85 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6930.55 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 7564.98 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 7492.82 triggers a sell signal S&P Index 50-day MA: 7472; 100-day MA: 7168; 150-day MA: 7078; 200-day MA: 6999 DJIA 50-day MA: 51,363;100-day MA: 49,619; 150-day MA: 49,441; 200-day MA: 48,849 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) @nicksortor: President Trump indicates he is LOSING HIS PATIENCE with John Thune over NOT passing the SAVE America Act. “We can’t do this, and we’re NOT going to take this any longer… I’m trying to be nice, trying to be really nice…” “But we’re not gonna we’re not going to be able to take it much longer when they can’t get past voter ID, proof of citizenship, no mail-in ballots because they’re crooked as hell.” “The Senate, what they’re doing is just not right.. The Senate is a place that you send things when you want it to DlE!” https://x.com/nicksortor/status/2080033149640478885 JD Vance’s Big Crashout The vice president’s grievance-soaked performance on Joe Rogan’s podcast suggests that his meteoric political rise may meet a similarly spectacular end… Like Barack Obama, Vance sees his personal story as a springboard to the White House. And like Obama, he has already written two memoirs by the age of 45 without a single legislative or practical political accomplishment of any kind aside from being elected to public office… https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/vance-big-crashout Software vendor disputes NJ governor’s ‘glitch’ claim, says state approves foreigners on voter roll The NJ government and its vendor (IDEMIA) now publicly dispute who was supposed to catch an error that allowed thousands of noncitizens to register to vote, raising direct questions about the integrity of the safeguards voters are told they can trust… “The voter registration information is transmitted to the New Jersey Department of State, Division of Elections, which is ultimately responsible for verifying eligibility to vote. Information submitted by IDEMIA must still be validated and adjudicated by the Division of Elections.”… https://justthenews.com/nation/states/software-vendor-disputes-nj-governors-glitch-claim-says-state-approved-foreigners @realDonaldTrump: 35,152 is the new number just released by Homeland Security of non-citizens registered to vote in New Jersey. These are just the ones that got caught. The real numbers will prove to be many times this amount. They are all Dumocrats! Republicans, get smart and straighten out our Crooked Elections! Pass The Save America Act!!! An inconvenient truth: For centuries, immigrants flocked to America for opportunity and freedom; and they vehemently professed love for the USA. Recently, too many immigrants profess hate for the US and openly admit that they are here for the freebies and want more freebies via communism/socialism. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez @RepAOC: Tomorrow, the House will vote on the NDAA, which includes a provision to merge parts of our military with the IDF. This amendment is an existential threat to American sovereignty and democracy. Every member of Congress must vote NO. GOP and DJT-hating @RepThomasMassie: Final vote total for the NDAA today which tragically merges our military technology and supply chains with Israel’s. Let’s hope this version fails in the Senate because Section 219 is a betrayal of our sovereignty. Jasmine Crockett roasted for claiming ‘racist history’ led World Cup fans to root against Argentina – The Texas Democrat made the remarks during a House Oversight subcommittee hearing on Tuesday, drawing ridicule online (Race and Trump are the major Dem issues/talking points!) https://www.foxnews.com/politics/jasmine-crockett-roasted-claiming-racist-history-led-world-cup-fans-root-against-argentina “He Was Very Close to Being Arrested”: Epstein’s Paris Model Scout Found Dead at Home, Weeks After CNN Appearance – Daniel Siad, the 69-year-old… whose name appears nearly 2,000 times in the DOJ’s Epstein files, was found dead at his home in Colombes, northwest of Paris, on Monday… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/he-was-very-close-being-arrested-epsteins-paris-model-scout-found-dead-home-weeks-after @OliLondonTV: Megan Rapinoe (MSM darling on her identity) claims banning transgender males from women’s sports is an “attack on women.” “It’s an attack on women in society.” Former USWNT star Carli Lloyd admits losing to under-15 boys team (5-2): ‘Yes, it’s true’ https://www.foxnews.com/sports/former-uswnt-star-carli-lloyd-admits-losing-to-under-15-boys-team-yes-its-true | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
RFK Jr. Says Government Pausing More Than $1 Billion In Medicaid Payments To California, Minnesota
Wednesday, Jul 22, 2026 – 07:15 PM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,
The federal government is pausing more than $1 billion in Medicaid payments to two states, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) is withholding more than $867 million from California and more than $200 million from Minnesota.
Advanced analytics, identified through financial investigation and artificial intelligence, identified suspicious activity and potential fraud, officials said.
“Every dollar the federal government allows to be lost to fraud, waste, and abuse is a dollar stolen from American patients and the American taxpayer. That’s money that should be going to legitimate health care,” Kennedy told a press conference in Washington.
He added later, “If those states want that money, they need to provide documentation that these payments are legitimate.”
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a Democrat, told The Epoch Times via email, “The Trump Administration is cutting more money in healthcare than they’ve prosecuted for fraud. The math doesn’t add up. They’re not punishing fraudsters, they’re punishing children, seniors, working families, and people with disabilities. This is about cutting healthcare for people they don’t care about in their campaign of retribution against Minnesota.”
Walz’s office said that he has been combating Medicaid fraud, including halting 745 payments since January.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom said on X that California was being targeted for political reasons.
“We hate fraud. That’s not what this is. And we stand ready to collaborate with CMS in good faith efforts to combat fraud,” he wrote.
Medicaid is a federal health program. About 67 million Americans were enrolled in Medicaid as of March. Medicaid is administered by states, which must follow federal requirements, and is funded by both the federal government and states.
Dr. Mehmet Oz, the CMS administrator, told reporters on Tuesday that officials want the states to help the federal government make sure the funds are going to “real people with real problems getting real care.”
Among the problems identified, he said, was the federal government being charged for providers providing care for deceased people and providers billing for services provided more than a year prior.
He also said that California’s spending on support services for people at their homes increased 24 percent in recent years, which was about twice the average across the other states.
“If it smells like fraud, we’re not paying for it anymore,” Oz said.
Dan Brillman, director of Medicaid, said during the briefing that the Trump administration is still withholding an additional $259 million from Minnesota and $1.3 billion from California that officials said they were pausing earlier in the year.
Federal Trade Commission Chairman Andrew Ferguson, vice chairman of the White House’s Anti-Fraud Task Force, said on Tuesday that the administration is also focused on sending people who commit fraud to jail, pointing to how federal prosecutors in June said they’ve charged 455 people, including 90 doctors and other medical professionals with licenses, with participating in health care fraud and opioid abuse
END
BREAKING: FBI Director Kash Patel and CIA Director John Ratcliffe have just RELEASED A TROVE OF DOCUMENTS PROVING THAT THE FBI PLANTED AND TAMPERED WITH EVIDENCE DURING THEIR RAID OF PRESIDENT TRUMP’S MAR-A-LAGO HOME. They also knew that they didn’t have probable cause to raid his home in the first place, but the Biden administration put enormous pressure on them to raid President Trump’s home anyway. A senior Biden official was quoted as saying, “I don’t give a shit what the optics look like.” The case was all a BIG LIE – And Jack Smith and his team fabricated the entire thing. The criminal cases against President Trump were the Biden administration’s own version of Russiagate: It was a coup attempt meant to take down President Trump and prevent him from his inevitable return to The White House by illegally weaponizing the justice system against their political opponent. Each and every one of them should spend the rest of their lives in federal prison for this HIGH TREASON. God Bless Kash Patel and John Ratcliffe for EXPOSING THE TRUTH IN THESE BOMBSHELL DOCUMENTS.
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GREG HUNTER..
harveyorganblog.com 
