EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,049.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/31/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 08/04/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
167 C MAREX 4
167 H MAREX 50
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 125
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 29
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 341
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC CORP 146
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 96
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 272
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 589 133
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 1 1
690 C ABN AMRO CLR USA LLC 3
732 H RBC CAP MARKETS 190
845 C GOLDMAN SACHS CLEARI 21
905 C ADM 63
TOTAL: 1,032 1,032
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2026: 1032 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 103,200 OZ or 3.209 TONNES
total notices so far: 13,964 contracts FOR 1,396,400 OZ OR 43.433TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 7 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 35,000 OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 707 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 3.515 million oz
GLD AND SLV
GLD
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.07AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.893 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV : INVENTORY RESTS AT THE SLV AT 486.673MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR JANUARY: 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR .100 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ!!
INTIAL STANDING FOR FEBRUARY/SILVER: 13.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.005 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP / : NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ADVANCES TO 25.180 MILLION OZ. BUT WE MUST ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 25 CONTRACTS FOR .125 MILLION OZ AND THEN OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF .0600 MILLION OZ TO OUR THIRD HUGE 2.825 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH: A SURPRISINGLY LOW 31.076 MILLION OZ/ FOLLOWED BY A TINY QUEUE JUMP OF XX CONTRACTS OR XXX OZ/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL: 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE 5,000 OZ WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. NEW STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX THUS ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 16.565 MILLION OZ PLUS WE MUST ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 17 CONTRACTS OR 0.085 MILLION OZ. THESE WILL BE ADDED TO OUR OTHER 3 ISSUANCES //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK//1.165 MILLION OZ// NEW TOTAL SILVER STANDING 17.730 MILLION OZ//
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 31.495 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER 3 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP TO LONDON FOR 0.015 MILLION OZ// AND THEN TO BOOT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 51 CONTRACTS OR 255,000 OZ MAY 21./STANDING BEFORE EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 32.070 MILLION OZ/NEW STANDING THUS REDUCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ/.//(32.070 MILLION OZ NORMAL STANDING PLUS .255 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 32.325 MILLION OZ)
JUNE INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER:10.935 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 12.970 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 20 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.070 MILLION OZ. (IN EXCHANGE FOR RISK THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK AND ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD TAKE THAT RISK. THE BUYER IS PROBABLY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA.)
JULY INITIAL STANDING: 37.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A 3 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OR 0.015MILLION STANDING ADVANCES TO 45.875 MILLION OZ///
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 6.240 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 60 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 300,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 6.540 MILLION OZ/
SUMMARY OF OUR JULY 2026 COMEX CONTRACT MONTH
JULY: 50.925 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
AUGUST: 59.455 MILLION OZ (QUITE SMALL)
SEPT. 50.510 MILLION OZ.(QUITE SMALL)
OCT; 82.020 MILLION OZ (WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH)/ OCC WANTS TO REIN IN THESE ISSUANCES!
NOVEMBER: 36.425 MILLION OZ
DEC: 45.765 MILLION OZ
JANUARY 2026: 134.270 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A VERY STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL!)
FEB : 82.130 MILLION OZ
MARCH: 56.075 MILLION OZ
APRIL; 44.44 MILLION OZ//FINAL.. SMALL THIS MONTH.
MAY 59.79 MILLION OZ
JUNE. 64.065 MILLION OZ//FINAL AND FAIR SIZED THIS MONTH.
JULY: 38.335 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 0.500 MILLION OZ.
AND JULY: 46.720 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST: 4.70 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING PLUS TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.960 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER: 68.040 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY(INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING AND EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS) PLUS 3.0 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 71.040 MILLION OZ. (THIS IS THE FIRST AND ONLY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR SILVER SINCE MAY.)
OCTOBER: 39.565 MILLION OZ OF NORMAL DELIVERY INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING
PLUS
2.110 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL OZ STANDING IN OCT ADVAN
NOVEMBER: INITIAL STANDING AT 11.575 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 9.155 MILLION OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 19.670 MILLION OZ/
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 49.33 MILLION OZ// FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG 835,000OZ QUEUE JUMP+ DEC. FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F .850 MILLION OZ + LAST WEEK.S 495,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN A 3RD ISSUANCE IF 1.00MILLION OZ THEN FINALLY DEC 249ISSUANCE OF 1.35 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EX FOR RIS IS 3.685 MILLION OZ // STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.415 MILLION OZ//
JANUARY: INITIAL STANDING 22.915 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//NORMAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.445 MILLION OZ// TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.100 MILLLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.545 MILLION OZ
FEB: 13.399 MILLION OZ IS OUR INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER! TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 5,000 OZ AND THEN ADD OUR 3 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 3.010 MILLION OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.190 MILLION OZ!!
MARCH: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 31.076 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY A FINAL 0.210 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING ADVANCES TO 46.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2026: INITITAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING 7.120 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.565MILLION OZ PLUS 1.165 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK.NEW TOTALS 17.730 MILLION OZ
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND; 31.495 MILLION OZ/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL JUMP OF 15,000 OZ//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 32.070 MILLION OZ//(FOLLOWING MANY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON DURING THIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH). THERE SEEMS TO BE A SCARCITY OF SILVER OVER AT THE COMEX). THEN WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 51 CONTRACTS FOR 255,000 OZ//STANDING ADVANCES TO 32.325 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND: 10.935 MILLION OZ PLUS OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 12.960 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 20 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.070 MILLION OZ
JULY : INITIAL STANDING: 37.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 15,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //STANDING THUS ADVANCES TO 45.875 MILLION OZ//
AUGUST 6.240 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 300,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 6.540 MILLION OZ/
GOLD//OUTLINE
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 345 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 34,500 OZ/ (1.073 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 345 CONTRACTS OR 34500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 24.635 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES OF GOLD.
JUNE; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 64.496 TONNES.(CME CORRECTED) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.0186 TONNES/NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F 0.0062 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 40.824TONNES
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST 0.0715 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK AND THEN OUR FIRST QUEUE JUMP OF 0.5816 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.3405 TONNES
GOLD PRICE FELL BY $50.40
STANDING FOR THE LAST 8 MONTHS JANUARY TO AUGUST:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW FINAL STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 345 CONTRACTS/34,500 OZ// 1.073 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MAY// 5 OCCASIONS: 24.635 TONNES///NEW FINAL STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER JUMP OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING 127.03 TONNES//FINAL
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0000 TONNES/ PLUS 0.0062 TONNES EX FOR RISK///NEW STANDING FOR GOLD REMAINS AT 40.824TONNES.
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST 0.0715 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO OUR FIRST QUEUE JUMP OF 0.5816 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.3405 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 118.430 TONNES
JUNE: 142.053 TONNES
JULY: 163.82 TONNES
AUGUST: 7.293 TONNES
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSIT
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A SMALL 262 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 109.734
EFP ISSUANCE 100 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 100 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 262 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 100 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A SMALL LOSS OF 162 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS OF $0.90
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 0.810 MILLION PAPER OZ
STANDING ADVANCES TO 6.540 MILLION OZ
SILVER PRICE LOST $0.90
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS AUGUST 3 /2025
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.60 PTS OR 0.59%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 124.97 PTS OR 0.48%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 658.02 PTS OR 1.02%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.03%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7526
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7528 Oil DOWN TO 79.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 83.40 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7526 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7528)ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR 3414 CONTRACTS TO 380,474 STILL WELL ABOVE ITS NEW LOW OF 326,052 OI SET JUNE 3, CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 345,705 SET (MAY 28) AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 353,490 SET MAY 27.. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 326,052 //JUNE 3 2026 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,450.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING/. IT SEEMS THAT MANY OF THE SPECULATORS THAT HAVE NOW CONTINUED AGAIN TO BE ON THE SHORT SIDE WITH BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE AND THESE GUYS WERE OBLITERATED YESTERDAY WHEN THE LONGS TENDERED FOR DELIVERY:
CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS JULY CONTRACT MONTH!!
THE FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (1069 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD (DOWN $50.40)
WE THUS HAD A FAIR LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES (1069CONTRACTS), WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A FAIR CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE EQUATING TO 2345 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A 0 CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 .0 TONNES OF GOLD. TOTAL THUS SO FAR THIS MONTH: 23 CONTRACTS//2300 OZ OR 0.0715 TONNES
MAY RECORD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK:
MAY 22 RECORDS THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 12.4416 TONNES. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THE THIRD ON MAY 18 , THEN MAY 21 OUR 4TH ISSUANCE AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY, OUR 5TH ISSUANCE. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH JULY AND AUGUST
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS OR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES.
JUNE: 0 IN GOLD. THUS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IN GOLD ZERO NOTICES WERE FILED.
JULY: 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES
AUGUST: 23 CONTRACTS FOR 2300 OZ OR 0.0715 TONNES
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO JUNE/JULY:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 146+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS, 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
JUNE: ZERO
JULY 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES. I DOUBT VERY MUCH THAT THIS IS A CENTRAL BANK
AUGUST: 23 CONTRACTS FOR 2300 OZ OR 0.0715 TONNES
DETAILS ON OUR NEW AUG COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1069 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE ($50.40). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE/JULY/AUG CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A FAIR SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1175 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS.
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND MAY WITH ITS 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 12.4436 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 24.635 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12, MAY 18 MAY 21 AND NOW MAY 22..
THEN IT SLOWS DOWN!
JUNE: ZERO FOR THE MONTH
JULY: 2 SO FAR FOR 200 IZ IR 0.00622 TONNES
AUGUST 23 FOR 2300 OZ OR 0.0715 TONNES
WE MUST ALSO REMEMBER THAT THE FRBNY IS SHORT 146+ TONNES OF GOLD, THIS COMMENCED ON JAN 2 2023 AS THEY REFUSE TO COVER DESPITE THE BIS’S PLEA TO DO SO.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 12 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST:
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING FINALIZES AT 157.879 TONNES, ITS HIGHEST STANDING RECORDED IN OVER 4 YEARS.
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 34,500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNESS
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE SUBTRACT AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES// TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH FINALIZES AT 62.4217 TONNES OR AVERAGING 3.285 TONNES PER DAY IN JUNE.
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 749,300 OZ OR 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000TONNES//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 40.818TONNES PLUS 0.00622 TONNES EXHANGE FOR RISK// NEW TOTAL 40.824 TONNES . TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING SO FAR: 17.5802 TONNES OR 0.8790 TONNES ON EACH TRADING DAY LEAVING COMEX FOR EASTERN SHORES.
AUGUST INITIAL; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STANDS: 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 0.715 TONNES AND THEN MONDAY’S FIRST QUEUE JUMP OF 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ (.5816 TONNES)//STANDING ADVANCES TO 49.3405 TONNES.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING AUGUST. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $50.40
WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION FRIDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY EVENING //SATURDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE AT THE COMEX OF $50.40
WE HAD 14,620CONTRACTS ADDED TO OUR OI AT THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1069 CONTRACTS OR 106900 OZ (5.345 TONNES)
AUG DELIVERY MONTH
AUGUST 3
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1 1 ENTRY i) Out of Manfra: 9,259.488 288 kilobars |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold ENTRIES: 0 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 1032 CONTRACTS 103,200 OZ 40.414TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1876Contracts 187,600OZ 5.939 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 1,396,400notices 1,396,400 OZ 43.433TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
ENTRIES: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawal
1 ENTRY
i) Out of Manfra: 9, 259.488 oz
288 kilobars
total withdrawal 9,259.488 oz
adjustments: 4
first one: customer to dealer
a) Brinks: 964.540
Next two: dealer to customer
b) HSBC 43,893.179 oz
c)JPMorgan: 105,950.509 oz
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF AUG OI STANDS AT 2,908CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 18,084 CONTRACTS.
STANDING FOR GOLD ON FIRST DAY NOTICE: 48.687 TONNES. TODAY’S STANDING IS 49.3405 TONNES WHICH INCLUDES FRIDAY: 0.0715 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK. THUS THE QUEUE JUMP IS REPRESENTED BY A STRONG 187 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 18,700 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX.
SEPTEMBER ADDED 333CONTRACT UP TO AN OI OF 5056
OCT LOST 5 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 51,733
.
We had 1032 contracts filed for today representing 103,200 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 589 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1032 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 133 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUGUST. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (13,964) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUG (2908CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 1032x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,584,000 OZ OR (49.269 Tonnes of gold)then we add our first exchange for risk of 23 contracts for 2300oz or .0715..new standing 49.3405 tonnes.
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUG. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (13,964) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUG( 2908) contracts minus the number of notices served upon today 1032x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,584,000 OZ OR (49.269 Tonnes of gold) plus 0.0715 tonnes exchange for risk..new standing 49.3405
new total of gold standing in AUG becomes 49.3405TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR AUG 49.3405 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW REALLY HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUG
confirmed volume FRIDAY confirmed 128,550/ dreadful// many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,833,860.233 oz 57.040 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,833,860.233tonnes oz 57.040 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 27,028,144.742oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 14,531,086.207 tonnes (456.04onnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 12,515,098.535oz//eligible gold leaving hand over fist
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 12,697,226oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
394.93 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
AUG DELIVERY MONTH
AUGUST 3
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 0 entries |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | ENTRY: 0 |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 7CONTRACT(S) ( 0.035 MILLIONOZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 605 Contracts (3.025 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 703 contracts 3.515MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
ENTRY:0
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
ENTRY: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals: customer side/eligible
0entries
adjustments :0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 99.720 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 332.820 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST /2026 OI: 612 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 636 CONTRACTS.
ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WE HAD 6.240 MILLION OZ STAND: TODAY WE HAD 6.540 MILLION OZ STAND
THUS WE HAVE A GAIN OF 60 CONTRACTS OR WE HAD A STRONG 300,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP/
SEPTEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 1093 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 79,6592 CONTRACTS
OCT GAINED 37 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 394
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 7 or 0.035 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume FRIDAY; 31,966// extremely poor//
XXX
AND NOW JULY. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUG. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 703 X5,000 oz = 3.515 MILLION oz.
Then we take the difference between the front month of August and the number of notices filed for today x 5000 to give us our standing
Thus the standings for silver for the AUG 2026 contract month: (703 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUG ( 612 ) minus number of notices served upon today (7 x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the AUG .contract month equating to 6.540 MILLION OZ. ( a very strong delivery month)
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 99.220 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 137.898/332.820million: 41.50%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD//
AUGUST 3//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.80 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WIITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1007.02TONNES
JULY 31//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.40 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 30//2026/WITH GOLD UP $63.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 29//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 28//2026/WITH GOLD UP 21.50 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 27.2026/WITH GOLD UP 21.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JLY 24/2026/WITH GOLD UP 6.30 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 98.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1007.87TONNES
JULY 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP $73.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES
JULY 21/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.40 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.572 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.45 TONNES
JULY 20/2026/WITH GOLD UP $59.75 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.860 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1003.59 TONNES
JULY 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $26.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.572 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.878 TONNES
JULY 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $110.60 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.45 TONNES
JULY 15/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 1.94 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.45 TONNES
JULY 14/2026/WITH GOLD UP $63.45 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : / //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.510 TONNES
JULY 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $105.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.108 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.510 TONNES
JULY 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT 0F 3.138TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.618 TONNES
JULY 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $58.60 /SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.510 TONNES
JULY 8/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.30 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.79 TONNES
JULY 7/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.42 TONNES OUT INTO THE GLD/ ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.79 TONNES
JULY 6 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.954 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD/ ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.366 TONNES
JULY 3 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $62.95 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JULY 2 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $44,05 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JULY 1 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.95 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JUNE 30 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $2.85 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JUNE 29 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $58.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.223 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD // ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JUNE 26 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $49.10 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.287 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD // ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.350 TONNES
JUNE 25 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.637 TONNES
JUNE 24 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $141.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.563 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/./ //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.637 TONNES
JUNE 19 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $36.85 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.421 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/./ //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1020.49 TONNES
JUNE 18 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $135.20 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.856 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/./ //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.069 TONNES
JUNE 17 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $20.80 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.427 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/./ //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1012.213 TONNES
JUNE 16 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 15 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $111.10 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 12 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $123.30 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 11 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.855 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.640 TONNES
JUNE 10 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $153.05 TODAY/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.426 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//// ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.495 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1007.02 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
AUGUST 3 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV :A DEPOSIT OF 2.893 MILLION OZ FROIM THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.673 MILLION OZ
JULY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.90: :NOCHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.97: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 723,000 OZ INTO THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.34: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.057 MILLION OZ
JULY 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.27: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.633 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.057 MILLION OZ
JULY 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.27: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.722 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.690 MILLION OZ
JULY 24 WITH SILVER UP $1.45: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.413 MILLION OZ
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN 2.18: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 0.723MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.413 MILLION OZ
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.45: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.217 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.690 MILLION OZ
JULY 21 WITH SILVER UP $1.89: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.217 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.961 MILLION OZ
JULY 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.97: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 2.17 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.232 MILLION OZ
JULY 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.25: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 1.175 MILLION OZ// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.062 MILLION OZ
JULY 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.48: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.887 MILLION OZ
JULY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.52: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 3.30 MILLLION OZ OZ INTO THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.887 MILLION OZ
JULY 14 WITH SILVER UP $1.18: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 543,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 477,587 MILLION OZ
JULY 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.07: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.130 MILLION OZ
JULY 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.67: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.904 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.130 MILLION OZ
JULY 9 WITH SILVER UP $2.64: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.497 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.531 MILLION OZ
JULY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.70: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.497 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.531 MILLION OZ
JULY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.36: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.266 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.034 MILLION OZ
JULY 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.300 MILLION OZ
JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.81: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ INTO THE SLV.// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.360 MILLION OZ
JULY 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.58: : NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.360 MILLION OZ
JULY 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.48: : SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.233 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.360 MILLION OZ
JUNE 30 WITH SILVER UP $1.35: : HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.447 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.127 MILLION OZ
JUNE 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08: : HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.402 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.574 MILLION OZ
JUNE 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.86: : HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.352 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.976 MILLION OZ
JUNE 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.69: : SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 769,000 OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.624 MILLION OZ
JUNE 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.18: : SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 93,000 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.393 MILLION OZ
JUNE 19 WITH SILVER UP $1.11: : NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THJE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.302 MILLION OZ
JUNE 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $4.80: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.086 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV././ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.302 MILLION OZ
JUNE 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.79: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.388 MILLION OZ
JUNE 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.362 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.388 MILLION OZ
JUNE 15 WITH SILVER UP $3.25: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.357 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.026 MILLION OZ
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $3.34: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.769 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.383 MILLION OZ
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.226 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.152 MILLION OZ
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.50: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.909 MILLION OZ OUT THE SLV /./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.378 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 485.673 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD.
Bond crisis deepens
With bond yields breaking higher everywhere, all credit markets are facing spontaneous combustion.
Summary and conclusion
Finally, it appears that bond yields in the US and all other G7 nations are rising above the consolidation zones of the last three years. Higher bond yields will be a catastrophe for both businesses and governments, bankrupting many of the former and making the latter’s bonds uninvestible.
In their summer torpor, financial markets seem oblivious to these dangers. But this may be beginning to change. For investors, the consequences for their wealth tied up in all forms of credit including fiat currencies will be disastrous. Those who have sought the safety of real, common-law legal money without counterparty risk, which is gold and secondly silver, are the only people with protection from this looming catastrophe.
The significance of higher bond yields
We have been repeatedly told that the 10-year US Treasury note yield is the benchmark for other interest rates and a key indicator for investor sentiment. Well, it’s taking a turn for the worse, as its chart clearly demonstrates:
The insert shows the details more clearly. For technical analysts, this bond yield has clearly broken out on the upside. But they will be looking out for a final confirmation when the yield breaks higher above a psychological 5%, a level only 5 basis points above the previous peak in October 2023. The importance of this event is illustrated in our next chart, which covers the really big picture:
The prospective move higher may be just starting; we have labelled it the Hormuz shock for the inflationary implications of a Middle East crisis that shows no sign of ending any time soon and is arguably worsening. The implications for currencies and bond yields are clear. As higher prices and shortages of key oil derivatives, particularly diesel, jet fuel, and ships’ bunkers bite, private sectors will face a deflationary slump, and governments will be forced to expand currency and bank deposits without limit in a desperate attempt to support both their tax bases and financial markets.
These are factors shared with all G7 economies and the entire globe. But the dollar is the leading currency, and all the others will follow in its devaluation.
Markets have yet to adjust to this combination of a slump in G7 economies and the inflationary responses of governments and their central banks. Against a background of massive government debt relative to GDPs, G7 governments cannot afford what is about to be unleashed. They already have substantial budget deficits which will worsen considerably. And that is before they attempt a Keynesian stimulus/rescue of their tax bases as politics demands. A substantial dilution of purchasing power for all G7 currencies is inevitable, yet markets are blind to this certainty.
The last time this happened was during the OPEC crisis of 1973-74, with the following results:
In the mid-1970s, the arithmetic average inflation peak was 17%, bond yield 11%, and government debt to GDP 27%. Today, they are 2.6%, 3.9%, and 124% respectively. It is the debt to GDP number that tells us how dangerous higher bond yields will be. Yet the inflationary pressures, not yet evident to sleepy markets, are bound to drive them significantly higher.
The obvious outlier is Japan, with a general government debt to GDP today of 240%, of which 200% is central government and has the lowest inflation rate by far. Japan depends on the Middle East for 90% of her oil and LNG supplies and is more directly exposed to the current crisis than the other G7s. Her inflation rate will increase significantly if the mid-seventies experience repeats.
The consequences are yet to hit, but both the yen and the JGB’s yield have been racing to catch up with events:
The recent bounce in the yen-dollar rate is almost certainly the consequence of government intervention involving both Japan and the US in an attempt to steady the exchange rate. But that’s like rubbing an embrocation to cure chicken pox — it doesn’t deal with the underlying problem. If anything, by delaying the medicine of higher interest rates (they are still only 1%) Japan’s funding crisis will turn out to be considerably worse.
The equity bubble will burst
For logical reasons, there is a value relationship between equities and bonds: the higher the bond yield, the greater is the valuation hurdle faced by equities. A rise in bond yields leads to a fall in equities, while a decline in yields leads to rising equities.
This is described by investment strategists as a negative correlation, conventionally measured by the relationship between the return on a basket of equities and the yield on a long-maturity government bond, typically the 30-year. There are other factors involved, principally variations in relative risk. An economic downturn tends to favour bonds over equities because of the consequence for corporate earnings, while a booming economy should induce an equity premium over bonds.
Nevertheless, there should be a reasonably close negative relationship between equities and the long bond. And this is mostly the case, as our next chart demonstrates:
To illustrate the phenomenon, the chart uses logarithmic scales to reflect percentage changes, inverting the bond yield to illustrate the negative correlation. Both are indexed to 1985, which was the start of modern financial markets following London’s big-bang. For most of the time, a closely negative corelation is clearly shown. The massive bull market in equities is fundamentally linked to a long-term decline in the long bond yield, which in 1985 was 11.5% falling to only 1.2% in mid-2020.
The deviation from trend that concerns us is the current one, which is evidence of the greatest disparity seen for at least forty years (arrowed). In valuation terms, equities are in a massive bubble, about three times as excessive as the dot-com bubble in 2000 (also arrowed) following which the S&P 500 nearly halved in 18 months.
Fuelling equities is credit expansion
Individual equity values reflect their performance and prospects as corporate entities. But the market as a whole takes its value from the availability of credit for investment. In 2013, the S&P was 1,500 and the amount of credit leverage was $2 trillion. In March this year, credit leverage was $9.4 trillion, and the S&P was 6850. Both credit and the index have increased slightly more than 4.5 times.
Q.E.D for the relationship between credit and the S&P’s bull market. But there is little doubt that with equities so wildly overvalued relative to the long bond, a rise in the long bond’s yield from here will burst the equity bubble. And once the bubble bursts, the credit behind it will rapidly contract driving the S&P lower with considerable speed as banks and shadow banks rapidly liquidate collateral.
Foreign holders with some $22 trillion invested in US equities are sure to panic sell as well adding to the value slaughter.
So, to summarise — both bonds and equities are set to decline substantially, with equities outpacing bonds in a likely crash. The destruction of value is certain to elicit a response from the Fed under a political imperative to do everything in its power to stop it happening. In addition to the Treasury’s existing and prospective budget deficit, just replacing contracting bank credit will require an additional commitment of up to $8 trillion with a further trillion to bail out the brokers. If, at the same time there is a slump in non-financial, non-government GDP of say 10%, then US government debt rapidly climbs from 125% of GDP towards 150%. This is because in the equation, debt increases while GDP decreases. It is this combination which makes government debt uninvestible.
Conclusion
US bond yields breaking out higher than the 5% level that limited the post-covid rise in interest rates and bond yields will destroy the values of the two major forms of financial assets — bonds and equities. The Fed and US Treasury simply cannot afford to let this happen. At the same time, their bonds will become uninvestible because of the arithmetic of the debt trap spelled out in the paragraphs above.
They will have to resort to interest rate suppression and short-term finance, predominantly through T-bills maturing in less than a year. Inevitably, this will lead to an accelerating decline in the dollar’s value priced in real money without counterparty risk, which is gold.
Furthermore, the dollar’s problems are reflected in all other currencies whose economies are exposed to similar conditions. A global development of this sort is likely to surprise everyone with the suddenness with which it develops.
END
3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT:
5. COMMODITY REPORT/GOLD
5 COMMODITY REPORT FOR TODAY: WHEAT
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.60 PTS OR 0.59%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 124.97 PTS OR 0.48%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 658.02 PTS OR 1.02%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.03%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7526
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7528 Oil DOWN TO 79.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 83.40 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7526 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7528)ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 6.7526
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.7528
1.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 124.97 PTS OR 0.48%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 658.02 PTS OR 1.02%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL DOWN TO 79.46
BRENT; 83.40
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 99.70// EURO RISES TO 1.1522 UP 2 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.8250 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 156.98… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.992 UP 2 FULL BASIS PT
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP (6.7526) AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.7538
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA. CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. GOVERMENT ASKED JAPAN PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE FUNDS TO BUY MORE JAPANESE BONDS AND REPATRIATE ALL FOREIGN BONDS.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields LOWER on all fronts in the EU German 10yr bund YIELD DOWNTO +3.1443/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN AT 3.942/ SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.484%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.831%
3j Gold at $4046.85//Silver at: 57.79 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 68/ 100 roubles/80.68
3m oil (WTI) into the 79 dollar handle for WTI and 84 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 163.70 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.8250% UP 2 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS TO BE REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.992 UP 2 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.8091 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9322
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.681 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.231 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.239 UP 5 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 47.54 UP 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.9628 DOWN 9 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.697 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.665 UP 8 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.1410 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.
Futures Rise As Oil Plunge Helps Yields Ease From Nosebleed Highs; All Eyes On Yentervention
Monday, Aug 03, 2026 – 08:02 AM
Futures are higher with both tech and small caps outperforming as Trump points to a deal/advanded discussions with Iran (which Iran is naturally denying), which is helping push energy prices and bond yields lower as the USD depreciates. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.5% while Nasdaq futures rise 0.4% led by Mag 7 stocks higher with Semis lagging. Energy is lower with the remaining sectors seeing a bid pre-mkt as the lower oil / bond yields are creating what JPM hopes will be an ‘Everything Rally’. Though the Kospi against tumbled overnight, EWY is +1% pre-market. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plunged nearly 9% each, while TSMC fell more than 2%, following their record surge on Friday. The yen rallied sharply before paring most of the gain amid speculation that authorities may have intervened to prop up the currency again after coordinated action between the US and Japan last week. Bloomberg’s gauge of the dollar fell 0.1%. WTI is under $80/bbl dragging the Energy complex lower as we see this move boosting both Base and Precious Metals with Ags lower. Today’s macro data focus is opn the final July reading of S&P Global manufacturing PMI due at 9:45 a.m. ET, followed by ISM manufacturing for July and construction spending for June at 10 a.m. Omdia total vehicle sales are due through the day.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher: Amazon (AMZN) rises 1.6% as the e-commerce and cloud-computing company is set to extend gains after reporting cloud revenue acceleration for a fifth straight quarter (Alphabet +1.7%, Microsoft +1.8%, Meta +1.6%, Tesla +0.6%, Apple +0.6%, Nvidia -0.3%)
- Atkore (ATKR) jumps 27% after Prysmian agreed to buy the electrical-infrastructure products maker for $95 a share in cash, valuing the firm at $3.8 billion, including debt.
- Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) gains 5% as AstraZeneca Plc has explored an acquisition of the company, according to people familiar with the matter.
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL) shares fall 5.7% after Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation to underweight, citing lower expectations for the circulation of the company’s stablecoins in the future.
- CNH Industrial (CNH) rises 5% after the manufacturer of tractors and harvesters boosted its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year.
- Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) rises 8% as the plumbing and HVAC supplies company is set to replace Electronic Arts in the S&P 500 prior to the opening of trading Aug. 5.
- Marriott International (MAR) falls 3% after the hotel operator posted disappoingint second-quarter revenue.
- Krystal Biotech (KRYS) falls 7% after biopharmaceutical company reported net product revenues for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate
- Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) and Indivior Pharmaceuticals (INDV) rise after the companies agreed to combine in a tax-free all-stock merger of equals. Supernus jumps 17% while Indivior is up 8%.
- Sportradar Group (SRAD) falls 14% after the sports data provider cut its revenue guidance for the full year.
In other AI news, Alibaba released its biggest ever AI model, Qwen3.8-Max, claiming performance on par with global leader Anthropic and ranking higher on several benchmarks than the headline-grabbing Kimi K3 from Moonshot. More than 90% of companies, meanwhile, are blowing through their AI budgets, according to a recent McKinsey survey.
Middle East hostilities, AI stock valuations and inflation fears continue to dominate markets, but traders are also looking ahead to the key US July jobs report on Friday for guidance on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. SpaceX’s first earnings release since its record-breaking IPO is on Tuesday, while European heavyweights including HSBC Holdings Plc and Novo Nordisk A/S are also reporting.
Currency markets are front and center in terms of drama today, with news that the US and Japan took joint action to help lift the yen from its four-decade low, and Bessent vowing that the US “will not hesitate” to do more if needed, although it appears that after $100BN or so in FX intervention in the past two days, the USDJPY is once again moving higher, as it should as no amount of one-time intervention can stop its inevitable collapse.
It’s a busy week for calendar events, with a slew of labor market data leading up to Friday’s payrolls report, and more big earnings including SpaceX’s inaugural report as a public company. In deals, the weekend brought news that AstraZeneca has explored an acquisition of Bristol Myers Squibb. That combination would create one of the world’s largest drugmakers, though it’s unclear if discussions are still ongoing.
Brent crude tumbled after Trump reversed his Friday (after the close of course) threat of massive attacks, instead saying fresh US-Iran talks would begin Monday, boosting optimism the two sides may reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, despite Iranian officials saying there were no ongoing talks with Washington. What really happened is that Trump called off a planned attack on Iran in response to pleas from allies in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia. Adding to the positive sentiment, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said talks between his country and Oman were in the final stages of agreeing on a new route through Hormuz.
“Geopolitical news is helping out with oil prices going down and easing pressure on yields,” said Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG in Paris. “There is, however, a real lingering issue on bond yields, on leverage, on Fed policy: until there’s clarity on these fronts, it’s hard to say that the stock market is all clear.”
Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said that the momentum selloff in AI stocks is likely over, and he expects US stock market leadership to rotate toward companies with stable earnings and strong margins. Deutsche Bank’s Parag Thatte, meanwhile, reckons the rotation back into tech stocks that started last week has further to run.
That said, volatility remains top of mind. The growing popularity of leveraged ETFs has led to a surge in demand for “crash puts” and other exotic derivatives, which allow banks to hedge against potential losses. The SOX Index had intraday swings of at least 2% every trading day last month, something that hasn’t happened since 2020.
The shakiness of the tech trade, and an underwhelming response to big tech earnings, means that the S&P 500 has gone nowhere since the start of the earnings season. That’s despite US firms being on track to post a 29% surge in quarterly EPS, among the highest on record outside of post-crisis recovery years, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Earnings revisions have seen net upgrades for 15 weeks in a row, the longest streak since 2022, according to a Citigroup index.
In other assets, bond investors say the risk of a deeper Treasury rout is rising as Fed Chair Warsh keeps investors in the dark about how officials will respond to the evolving economy. One explanation for why rates went higher after the Fed presentation, according to Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok, is that markets understand the Fed’s commitment to 2% inflation, but with no forward guidance, don’t understand how it will get there.
Marriott International, Loews and Tyson Foods are among companies scheduled to report before the market open. Worldwide RevPar at Marriott is expected to grow about 3% in constant-currency, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Earnings from Palantir and Vertex Pharma are due later in the day.
European stocks advance, with travel and auto shares in the lead, as signs of progress between the US and Iran spurred a retreat in oil prices. Energy as well as food and beverage stocks are the biggest laggards. The Stoxx 600 rises 0.3% to 651.26. Here are the biggest movers Monday:
- A UBS basket of European airline stocks rises as much as 3.5% on Monday as a slide in Brent crude futures soothed concerns of higher jet fuel prices
- Clarkson shares jump as much as 16% to an all-time high after the British shipping group reported first-half results way ahead of expectations and said it expected similar outturn for full-year
- PostNL gains as much as 10%, the most since September, after the Dutch mail firm delivers what KBC Securities describes as a “resilient set” of first-half results
- Corbion rallies as much as 5.9%, the most since mid-June, as Oddo BHF upgrades the Dutch food ingredients firm to outperform, saying Friday’s guidance reset de-risks the investment case
- Mersen rallies as much as 14% in Paris, after Berenberg upgraded to buy, noting a first-half earnings beat and upgraded guidance at the electronics manufacturer, driven by growth in its power division
- RWS shares rise as much as 15%, their steepest climb since April, after the AI solutions company said it had entered into a binding agreement to buy Acolad
- Ipsen shares fall as much as 3.8% after Jefferies downgraded its rating on the drugmaker to underperform from hold, saying investors are underestimating the long-term competitive threat to its key drug Somatuline from Camurus’ CAM2029
- AstraZeneca shares fall as much as 7.8% to the lowest intraday since October, as analysts questioned the strategic rationale of a possible deal between the British drugmaker and Bristol-Myers Squibb
- Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Sobi) falls as much as 5.1%, the most since December, after the company announced that CEO Guido Oelkers has decided to step down to take up another position outside the company
Asian stocks retreated at the start of a new month, with South Korea’s heavyweight chipmakers sliding again after a dizzying rally on Friday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.7%, paring an earlier loss of 1.3%. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plunged nearly 9% each, while TSMC fell more than 2%. The Kospi slumped 5.1% following an unprecedented 18% surge on Friday. Alibaba’s Hong Kong-listed stock jumped the most since early July after releasing its latest flagship AI model, lending some support to the regional gauge. Stocks in Japan also declined as automakers and other exporters dropped amid concerns about a stronger yen, following joint currency intervention with the US. Traders remain on high alert for further moves by the authorities. Benchmarks in India and the Philippines were among gainers.
In FX, the Japanese yen remains in focus after strengthening overnight following reports that around $34 billion was spent in Friday’s intervention to support the currency. Still, showing just how powerless such interventions are, the yen erased most of its earlier upside although is still outperforming G-10 peers, rising 0.2% against the greenback despite and nearly $100BN in joint US-Japan interventions on Thursday and Friday. The dollar fell as much as 1.4% to 155.23 yen in Monday trading, the fourth-straight day of lower USD/JPY, before paring losses at 156.92. The greenback gained against other G10 currencies.
“This intervention does not change the fundamentals of a Fed close to hiking and Tokyo running a loose set of monetary and fiscal policies, which are weighing on the yen,” said Chris Turner, head of markets at ING. “We struggle to see this bilateral action driving USD/JPY sustainably below 155,” he says; but it limits investors “from chasing USD/JPY through 160 and buys time for Tokyo to introduce more yen-positive policies”
In rates, treasuries are extending gains into the early US session amid tumbling oil prices after President Donald Trump over the weekend called off a threatened major attack on Iran, while Tehran suggested that talks to get ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz are making progress. US 10-year yields fall 6 bps to 4.68% after rising to a year-to-date high on Friday. Gilts lead gains in European government bonds, with UK 10-year borrowing costs falling 9 bps and back below 5%. Treasury yields richer by 4bp to 6bp across the curve with long-end lagging slightly, steepening 5s30s and 10s30s spreads by more than 1bp; 10-year yields is around 4.68% with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by 1bp and 3bp. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. This week’s dealer forecasts call for a sharp pickup vs last week, with about $50 billion of new US investment-grade transactions projected. Dealers forecast about $130 billion of new US investment-grade debt offerings in August vs $99.55 billion in August 2025
In commodities, Brent crude futures drop 4.8% to near $84 a barrel after Trump said new talks with Iran would begin on Monday after calling off a planned attack. Precious metals rise with spot silver up about 1%. Bitcoin falls 1.3%.
Today’s US economic data calendar includes July final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), July ISM manufacturing and June construction spending (10am). Ahead this week are JOLTS job openings, ISM services and July jobs report. No Fed speakers are scheduled for Monday; appearances are scheduled later this week by Schmid, Cook, Daly, Musalem, Barkin and Bowman.
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- A private gauge showed China’s manufacturing activity expanded at a slower pace in July, remaining in expansion territory and broadly echoing the official factory survey, which signaled a contraction. The RatingDog general manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 50.9 in last month, down from 51.7 in June, according to a statement released Monday. WSJ
- A version of Chinese startup DeepSeek’s flagship AI model is by far the least expensive to run on benchmark tests among well-known models globally and more than 100 times cheaper to run than Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5, according to a research firm. RTRS
- The yen rallied on talk of fresh intervention after last week’s coordinated US-Japan campaign. The two governments said they would not hesitate to move again after their first joint yen action in 15 years. Japan likely spent around $34 billion on Friday’s FX intervention. BBG
- OPEC and its allies pressed ahead with another oil production increase, a move that would complete the group’s planned return of voluntarily withheld barrels to the market while setting the stage for potentially difficult talks over future quotas. WSJ
- The US Senate unveiled a bipartisan stopgap funding bill to keep the government funded through Dec. 11 and avert a shutdown this fall. BBG
- Oil slumped and futures rose as Donald Trump called off strikes on Iran and said talks on a deal would begin today. Iran denied it’s currently negotiating with the US but suggested an agreement with Oman on routes through the Strait of Hormuz may be close. BBG
- Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh this week floated to colleagues the prospect of meeting less often, which would mark a substantial shift in its operations, according to people familiar with the matter. WSJ
- AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb held merger talks, people familiar said. The megadeal would create one of the world’s biggest pharmaceutical groups, valued at almost $400 billion. FT
- California’s Democratic Party has endorsed the state’s proposed billionaire tax, marking a win for its advocates three months before Californians vote on the measure. WSJ
Top Iran News
- US President Trump said the US is locked and loaded and ready to go against Iran, but they “have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal have been agreed to. This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat. Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.”
- In further comments, US President Trump said the Iran attack would have been a massive one if not paused, adding there’s a deal on Hormuz and there will be a deal on denuclearisation. He added that he was asked very strongly by Iran to hold off the attack. On negotiations, he said they will begin tomorrow afternoon.
- US CENTCOM was reported on Friday to have prepared a large-scale operation in the form of a decisive two-week bombing campaign should President Trump choose escalation to break the deadlock in the Middle East, according to The Hill reports, citing sources.
- US Central Command intelligence official wrote in an email that they are seeking new and unconventional ways to increase pressure on and punish Iran, according to an internal message circulated among military analysts, according to CNN
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said negotiations with Oman are progressing, with the two sides holding constructive talks on a new framework and exchanging maps over the past seven to eight days for review, IRNA reported.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said Iran is working with Oman to establish a temporary security corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Tehran is not currently in dialogue with the US and is holding talks with Oman on the waterway. Baghaei added that issues with the US should be addressed at a later stage and that there are no plans to receive a US delegation or send an Iranian delegation in the coming days.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi told a cabinet meeting on Sunday that the negotiations with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz “were in the final stages”, according to FT. It was separately reported that Araghchi held phone calls with Saudi, Pakistan and Iraqi counterparts and exchanged views on the latest developments in the region, while he warned on Saturday against any adventurous action by the US and stressed Iran’s readiness to respond decisively to any aggression.
- Iranian lawmaker Qashqawi said there are no discussions with the US or talks on the nuclear issue, adding that US sanctions amount to war; lasting peace can only be pursued once the military, economic and media conflict ends, SNN reported.
- Iran’s Mehr News Agency rejected US President Trump’s claim that he halted attacks at the request of Iran and Middle East countries, while it called it “a new lie” and emphasised that Iran’s forces are on full alert.
- UKMTO said on Saturday it received a report of an incident 21 nautical miles northeast of Oman’s Khasab, where the master of the tanker saw a large splash and explosion in close proximity to the vessel, although no damage to the vessel was reported.
- Israel told the White House it has significant security concerns over a proposed Hamas disarmament agreement, saying intelligence suggests Hamas intends to rebuild its military capabilities rather than genuinely disarm. Israel added that it will not withdraw from most of Gaza until Hamas has fully completed the disarmament process.
- Palestinian civil defence said Israeli drone and airstrikes hit multiple locations across the Gaza Strip, killing at least 18 people, including two women and four children, with residential apartments, tents sheltering displaced people and civilian areas among the reported targets.
- Kpler shipping data showed 18 vessels passed through the Bab al-Mandeb on Sunday, compared to the 27 vessels on Saturday.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly lower despite the geopolitical relief from Trump’s cancellation of Iran strikes, with a mixed performance in the tech sector, while markets also digested weak Chinese PMI data and confirmation of joint US-Japan intervention on the yen. ASX 200 was ultimately flat, with underperformance in energy, real estate and financials offset by resilience in defensives. Nikkei 225 retreated amid increased rate hike bets following last week’s hawkish comments from BoJ Governor Ueda at the post-meeting press conference, while there were also headwinds from a firmer currency after the US and Japan confirmed they jointly intervened to support the yen on Friday. KOSPI underperformed amid weakness in its tech heavyweights and with participants digesting earnings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid divergences in the tech sector as hyperscalers advanced with Alibaba shares among today’s best performers after launching its Qwen 3.8 Max AI model, while chipmakers were pressured. Meanwhile, the mainland was subdued following disappointing Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data and as US-China frictions lingered, with MOFCOM criticising the US addition of Chinese companies to its forced labour entities list.
Top Asian News
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent posted “Friday’s coordinated foreign exchange actions countered disorderly yen movements.Treasury remains attentive and in close communication with our counterparts at MOF and BOJ. We will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention.”
- Japan’s Finance Ministry said it conducted coordinated yen buying intervention with the US on Friday and won’t hesitate to conduct further forex intervention with the US, adding intervention was to address recent excessive and disorderly moves in the yen.
- Japan top currency diplomat Mimura said they will not hesitate to conduct further joint intervention, adding joint intervention could be seen as the culmination of US-Japan currency alliance, and will continue to work closely with the BoJ.
- US President Trump, when asked regarding US intervening in the yen, said the US is intervening because the US has a good relationship with Japan, and we’re always there for Japan, adding the US is getting financial benefit out of the arrangement.
- BoJ data suggested Japan conducted around JPY 5.3tln of currency intervention on Friday; July’s money market conditions account shows a shortfall of around 11.4tln.
- PBoC will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy throughout H2 2026, with a focus on interest rate supervision, according to CCTV.
European bourses start the week broadly higher across the board, helped by the announcement by US President Trump over the weekend that he cancelled strikes on Iran at the request of Tehran and other Middle East countries, subject to the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Energy benchmarks have dropped as a result, with the broader Energy sector lower by 1.4%. Elsewhere, EZ and UK Manufacturing PMIs were ticked lower. Within the broader EZ release, S&P stated that new work inflows remain worryingly weak and that the manufacturing economy is not quite as healthy as the headline figure (51.9) suggests. Sectors highlight the positive bias. Autos is the clear outperformer, followed by Travel & Leisure and Consumer Products & Services. Outside of Energy, Food, Beverages & Tobacco and Health Care are the sector laggards. On a quiet day of European earnings, there have been a lot of M&A stories. Starting with the biggest story of the day, the FT reported that AstraZeneca have been in talks with Bristol Myers Squibb on a potential merger, which would be the biggest pharma deal of all time. Shares of Astra have slumped by over 7% at one point, with BMY shares up over 7% pre-market. However, the merger will come under tough antitrust scrutiny, according to analysts at BMO, due to the significant business overlap between the Co.’s cancer drug portfolios. In other M&A moves: Prysmian (-1.8%), acquires Atkore (+26% pre-market) for USD 3.8bln; BMPS (+0.2%), considering the acquisition of Banco BPM according to the FT; Ageas (+2.4%), sells its minority stake in Eqita for c. USD 1.2bln; Holcim (-1.7%), sells its Philippines business for at least USD 807mln.
Top European News
- UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 51.9 vs. Exp. 52.8 (Prev. 52.5).
- EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 51.9 vs. Exp. 52.0 (Prev. 51.4).
- German S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 52.2 vs. Exp. 52.2 (Prev. 50.3).
- French S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 49.8 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 51.2).
- Italian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 51.3 vs Exp. 52.3 (Prev. 52.2).
- Spanish S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 50.2 vs Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 49.7).
- German Retail Sales MoM (Jun) M/M -1.1% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 1.1%).
- German Retail Sales YoY (Jun) Y/Y -0.2% (Prev. 1.8%).
- Swiss Inflation Rate YoY (Jul) Y/Y 0.4% (Prev. 0.5%).
- Swiss Inflation Rate MoM (Jul) M/M -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0%).
FX
- G10s are mostly weaker against the Buck bar EUR (-0.1%) and JPY (+0.3%). NOK (-0.9%) underperforms amid sharply lower oil prices.
- USD is firmer against most G10 peers except the Yen, whose gains are sufficient to keep DXY unchanged. A lot of moving parts, including geopolitics and Treasury action in FX markets. Geopolitics remain bearish for the USD, with Brent Oct’26 down ~7% after the US cancelled planned strikes on Iran and anticipates negotiations to resume today. Aside from this (and geopolitics) is incoming negotiations commentary and some US data, including the July ISM manufacturing release. DXY found buyers below 99.50 and the 100 DMA at 99.70. The next region to watch is around 100, which has proven sticky throughout the last few sessions.
- No real move seen in the EUR to the final EZ manufacturing PMI read, where revised metrics were broadly unchanged despite the revision period coinciding with energy upside related to the breakdown of the US-Iran MoU. Within the EZ-wide release, commentary downplayed the strong figure, noting “factories continue to reduce headcounts…. the manufacturing economy is not quite as healthy as the headline numbers might suggest.” EUR/USD gradually weakened throughout the morning to a 1.1520 base; the 50 DMA is likely to be supported at 1.1480. EUR/JPY gradually moved higher amid profit-taking around 180. Elsewhere, FT reported that the US Treasury intervened in the market by buying JPY for EUR.
- Several factors continue to buoy the JPY after roughly 5% gains against the Buck over the past three sessions. Remarks from top FX diplomat Mimura coincided with USD/JPY downside overnight. He noted “they will not hesitate to conduct further joint intervention” and “will respond to FX in coordination with monetary policy”, implying the BoJ should continue policy normalisation in reflection of the currency; remarks which pushed the pair to a 155.26 base, a level not seen since May where the low was 155.03. JPMorgan sees little chance coordinated intervention would drive a sustained rally that pushes the pair below 150, while ING said it struggles to see the action driving USD/JPY sustainably below 155.
Fixed Income
- The marked pullback in energy has weighed on yields, with fixed benchmarks firmer (ex-JGBs) across the board. No substantial move to Final PMIs or the morning’s other data points. Instead, we await details from the new round of US-Iran negotiations from this afternoon, and look back on themes from last week and the weekend; namely, JPY intervention & Fed reports/commentary.
- Bunds as high as 124.80, firmer by 40 ticks, but shy of the 124.94 peak from Friday and then a handful of levels from early last week between 125.04-25. Fleeting upside on a particularly poor German retail sales series this morning. Thereafter, Germany’s final Manufacturing PMI was unrevised, and showed an “impressive start” to Q3. However, caveats apply to this and were neatly surmised in the downwardly-revised EZ series, with new work inflows weak and as such headcounts continue to be reduced.
- Gilts, as is usually the case amid energy-driven moves, outperform. Firmer by over 60 ticks, but also shy of levels from early last week, with a double-top at 87.24 the first point vs today’s 87.12 high. Thereafter, 87.32 and 87.51 come into view. For the UK, specifics light, focus on energy as alluded to, no move to the Final Manufacturing PMI which saw a downward revision and somewhat mixed commentary. While the broader focus remains the global policy backdrop, after Bailey pushed back on edging toward a hike (keeping the extended hold narrative in play) vs commentary from and reporting around the Fed.
- USTs at a 108-16 peak, yet to test the 108-20+ to 108-30 highs from last week. Ahead, the space looks to its own Final Manufacturing PMI before the ISM print and then an AtlantaFed update, in addition to Treasury financing estimates. Looking back, the late-Friday & weekend focus was on geopolitics which has driven the bulk of action (see Commodities), alongside commentary from and reporting around the Fed. Musalem said the UST sell off sent a signal that credibility must be earned via communication and action. Additionally, the NYT reported that Chair Warsh is considering, and raised at the last meeting, reducing the number of policy meetings from the current eight. The latter points are potentially keeping US yields somewhat bid, and perhaps explain why USTs are yet to test the highs from last week, in contrast to peers.
- Finally, JGBs are under pressure. The benchmark opened higher and climbed to a 126.96 peak early on, before reversing and falling to 126.74 and since a 126.63 low, with downside of just under 10 ticks at most. A reversal that came as the US and Japan formally confirmed the joint JPY action last week, and kept open the possibility of further intervention. Amidst this, and driving JGBs lower, FX Chief Mimura added that there is a “shared understanding with the BoJ” on the topic. Following this, Japanese short-end yields have climbed and the odds of a hike in September have increased to c. 50%, while October is over 90% implied for a hike.
Commodities
- Over the weekend, President Trump said the US had been fully prepared to launch a major military strike against Iran but agreed to pause the operation after requests from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, claiming that the outline of a deal had been reached involving the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and progress toward ending Iran’s nuclear programme, with negotiations expected to begin on Monday. Reports indicated that US CENTCOM had prepared a large-scale two-week bombing campaign if diplomacy failed. However, Iranian officials have since rejected the suggestion that direct US-Iran talks are underway.
- Since then, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran is negotiating only with Oman, with no plans to receive a US delegation or send an Iranian delegation in the coming days, while an Iranian lawmaker said there are no discussions with Washington or negotiations on the nuclear issue. Talks with Oman are reportedly progressing constructively on a new framework for safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including the exchange of maps over the past seven to eight days and plans for a temporary security corridor. Iranian officials have also continued consultations with Saudi and Pakistani counterparts, while warning the US against military action and stressing that Iranian forces remain on full alert. Meanwhile, two explosions were reported near commercial vessels off Oman’s Khasab without causing damage or casualties.
- WTI and Brent futures slumped some 6% at the open following Trump’s conditional cancellation of strikes on Iran. Prices have remained weak, with WTI Sep’26 sliding from Friday’s near-USD 87/bbl to open at USD 80.10/bbl this morning and then to a current Monday trough at USD 78.78/bbl. Brent Oct’26 hit a peak of USD 91.36/bbl on Friday, before opening today at USD 82.80/bbl, whilst the intraday low print currently resides at USD 81.55/bbl.
- Metals are mostly firmer as the slump in oil prices provides some reprieve for the space, although the USD has since clambered off lows and risen back above its 100 DMA (99.72). As such, spot gold resides towards the bottom end of a USD 4,047.35-4,079.19/oz range but above Friday’s USD 4,045.17/oz close. Spot silver oscillates in a USD 57.59/oz to USD 58.63/oz range at the time of writing, above Friday’s USD 57.63/oz close.
- 3M LME copper trades within a narrow 13,800.60- 13,903.00/t range, with gains capped as participants also digested disappointing Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data.
- BoK reportedly plans to purchase domestically refined gold bars for the first time in 13 years due to geopolitical risks, Korea Economic Daily reported.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Russia struck three ships carrying military goods in the Black Sea.
- Russian Transport Ministry said it is taking measures to ensure the safety of navigation and to protect ships in the Azov-Black Sea basin due to drone attacks, RIA reported.
US Event Calendar
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
We start August with the biggest story in macro markets at the moment being the Yen. It started with the suspected FX intervention on Thursday, which helped the yen to a +4.09% weekly gain against the dollar, its biggest in almost two years. That intervention was coordinated with the US, with Treasury Secretary Bessent saying the yen seemed “very undervalued”, while on Friday we saw reporting that the NY Fed carried out a rate check on the yen against the euro. This coordinated intervention has now been confirmed. The Yen is another +0.6% stronger this morning but was +1.4% stronger earlier in the session after a spike higher that could have been more intervention. Remember in our 2026 Mapping the World’s Prices (link here) published in mid-July we highlighted how astonishingly cheap Japan was on a global basis. While no guarantee of when this would change, it felt like one of the most obvious medium-term trades in markets and still does. We’ll see how this story develops.
Meanwhile the latest around Iran is that hopes have risen over the weekend of a diplomatic off-ramp. President Trump said he had cancelled a planned US strike on Iran—described as potentially the largest American attack since World War II—following appeals from key Gulf allies, particularly Saudi Arabia, and announced that fresh US-Iran talks would begin today. At the same time, Iranian officials indicated that negotiations with Oman over arrangements relating to the Strait of Hormuz are in their final stages. Markets have reacted positively, with Brent crude falling -5.2% this morning to $83.38/bbl. US Treasury yields are 3-5bps lower across the curve.
S&P (+0.61%), Nasdaq (+0.96%) and Stoxx (+0.93%) futures have also rallied this morning although the ongoing tech volatility is holding back the KOSPI (-4.92%) and the Nikkei (-0.93%). The Hang Seng is flat and mainland Chinese markets are down a few tenths of a percent.
The week ahead will be dominated by the US labour market, with the JOLTS report tomorrow, the ADP employment survey on Wednesday, and building up to Friday’s July employment report. Beyond the US, investors will be watching Swiss inflation today, Swedish inflation on Thursday, German activity data throughout the week (culminating in trade and industrial production figures on Friday), Chinese PMI releases on Wednesday ahead of trade data on Friday, and Japanese wage data and BoJ communications on Wednesday before household spending figures on Friday. Meanwhile, earnings season remains in full swing.
Looking at the US and then the rest of the world in more detail, attention will centre on whether incoming data reinforce the view that the US labour market remains resilient. Our economists expect Friday’s July payrolls report to show employment growth of +65k, modestly above June’s +57k reading, while private payrolls are also expected to rise by +65k after +49k previously. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.2%, although risks are skewed towards a rounding up to 4.3% if labour force participation rebounds after last month’s sharp decline. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by +0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from June, while average hours worked are forecast to hold at 34.3 hours. If realised, those outcomes would leave our economists’ payroll proxy for nominal income growth unchanged at 4.4% year-on-year.
Before Friday’s report, several labour market indicators will help shape expectations. The JOLTS report (tomorrow) and the ADP employment survey (Wednesday) will be closely watched, with our economists expecting ADP employment growth of +60k after +98k previously. Activity indicators will also feature prominently. The ISM manufacturing index (today) is expected to improve to 54.1 from 53.3, while the ISM services index (Wednesday) is forecast at 54.3, little changed from June’s 54.0. Productivity data (Thursday) should provide another read on underlying economic momentum, with our economists forecasting Q2 nonfarm productivity growth of +3.0% and unit labour costs rising by +0.5%.
The policy backdrop remains important. The Fed left rates unchanged last week, but three officials dissented in favour of a hike, highlighting continuing concerns about inflation. Investors will therefore pay close attention to remarks from Governor Cook (Wednesday), as well as speeches from Schmid (Tuesday), Musalem (Thursday) and Barkin (Friday), for any indication of how officials are interpreting the latest data. Our economists continue to expect two further 25bp rate increases this year, in September and December.
Outside the US, Europe’s focus will be split between inflation and activity data. Switzerland releases July CPI today, while Sweden follows with its July inflation report on Thursday. Germany will publish a series of key June indicators throughout the week, including retail sales (today), factory orders (Thursday), and trade and industrial production figures (Friday). Elsewhere, France releases Q2 wage data on Thursday, while euro area producer prices (Wednesday) and retail sales (Thursday) are also upcoming.
In Asia, after China’s private PMI surveys began with manufacturing data today, this continues with services on Wednesday, before attention turns to July trade figures and foreign reserves on Friday. In Japan, investors will monitor labour cash earnings (Wednesday) and household spending (Friday) for evidence on domestic demand and wage momentum. The Bank of Japan will also publish the minutes of its June meeting on Wednesday.
Corporate earnings remain another major theme. In the US, reports are due from Palantir (today), SpaceX, AMD, Caterpillar, McDonald’s and Toyota (tomorrow), before attention shifts to Eli Lilly, Walt Disney and Uber (Wednesday). European highlights include Novo Nordisk and Siemens Energy (Wednesday), followed by Siemens and Rheinmetall (Thursday), while Japan’s reporting calendar includes SoftBank and Nintendo (Thursday).
Recapping last week now, and rates saw a sharp steepening in the aftermath of the latest central bank decisions, with long-dated yields reaching multi-year highs. The main trigger was the FOMC meeting as Chair Warsh offered little detail on the Fed’s reaction function to accompany the on hold decision. The 2yr Treasury yield fell -4.1bps (+4.5bps Friday) to 4.29% as fed funds futures dialed back pricing of rate hikes by year-end to 37bps (from 44bps the week before). However, the 10yr yield rose +5.8bps (+6.2bps Friday) to 4.74%, while the 30yr yield rose +11.5bps (+5.9bps Friday) to a post-2007 high of 5.27%. This marked the sharpest weekly steepening of the 2s10s slope since the post-Liberation Day sell off last April.
In Europe, the rates moves were more modest as the ECB held rates steady but signalled that a September hike was probable. 2yr bund yields inched down -0.8bps (+5.7bps Friday) but 10yr bund yields rose +3.4bps following a +5.1bps sell-off on Friday to reach a post-2011 high of 3.20%. Meanwhile, 10yr gilts saw a milder weekly sell off (+1.8bps) as the steady BoE decision was accompanied by rhetoric that the bank wasn’t “edging towards a hike”. A September BoE hike is now 30% priced (down from 61% the week before), while ECB September hike pricing was little changed at near 90%.
Equities saw a solid gain in aggregate, with the S&P 500 advancing +1.05% (+0.70% Friday). But the standout theme was continued volatility around the AI trade, with the Philly semiconductor index ending the week -4.30% lower despite a +8.19% spike on Thursday. The Mag-7 (+4.16%) had a strong but varied week, with Microsoft (+21.75%) and Amazon (+17.00%) surging after their earnings, but Apple (-7.24%) and Meta (-6.47%) losing ground after theirs.
Internationally, the volatility was most extreme for Korea’s KOSPI index, with a +17.91% surge on Friday still leaving the index -1.42% lower on the week after it plunged across Tuesday-Wednesday. European equities outperformed as Brent crude fell by -6.88% to $90.12/bbl in the absence of new material escalation between the US and Iran. A solid Eurozone Q2 real GDP print (+0.4% qoq) also helped, sending the DAX (+2.11%), CAC (+1.64%) and FTSE 100 (+1.23%) to strong advances, though the STOXX 600 (+0.73%) was weighed down by a -8.24% decline for ASML.
Amid the stronger yen (+4.09%) and an on hold BoJ decision, the Nikkei climbed by +4.03% on Friday (-0.39% on the week), while 10yr JGBs (-1.1bps on the week to 2.81%) outperformed global peers.
1b European opening report
Stocks primed for a firmer open as oil eases; JPY extends gains on intervention threats – Newsquawk US Market Open
Monday, Aug 03, 2026 – 06:05 AM
- US President Trump announced over the weekend that he cancelled strikes on Iran at the request of Tehran and other Middle East countries, subject to making a rapid deal (Brent -4.7%).
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said negotiations with Oman are progressing, with the two sides holding constructive talks on a new framework and exchanging maps over the past seven to eight days for review.
- Japan’s Finance Ministry said it conducted coordinated yen-buying intervention with the US on Friday and won’t hesitate to conduct further forex intervention with the US (USD/JPY -0.3%).
- US equity futures gain given the slump in energy prices; BMY (+7% pre-market) benefits on an FT report of a potential AZN merger.
- DXY unchanged, JPY outperforms while EUR little changed following downside revisions to manufacturing PMIs.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), and US Treasury Financing Estimates. Earnings from Palantir and ONSemi.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses start the week broadly higher across the board, helped by the announcement by US President Trump over the weekend that he cancelled strikes on Iran at the request of Tehran and other Middle East countries, subject to the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Energy benchmarks have dropped as a result, with the broader Energy sector lower by 1.4%. Elsewhere, EZ and UK Manufacturing PMIs were ticked lower. Within the broader EZ release, S&P stated that new work inflows remain worryingly weak and that the manufacturing economy is not quite as healthy as the headline figure (51.9) suggests.
- Sectors highlight the positive bias. Autos is the clear outperformer, followed by Travel & Leisure and Consumer Products & Services. Outside of Energy, Food, Beverages & Tobacco and Health Care are the sector laggards.
- On a quiet day of European earnings, there have been a lot of M&A stories. Starting with the biggest story of the day, the FT reported that AstraZeneca have been in talks with Bristol Myers Squibb on a potential merger, which would be the biggest pharma deal of all time. Shares of Astra have slumped by over 7% at one point, with BMY shares up over 7% pre-market. However, the merger will come under tough antitrust scrutiny, according to analysts at BMO, due to the significant business overlap between the Co.’s cancer drug portfolios.
- In other M&A moves: Prysmian (-1.8%), acquires Atkore (+26% pre-market) for USD 3.8bln; BMPS (+0.2%), considering the acquisition of Banco BPM according to the FT; Ageas (+2.4%), sells its minority stake in Eqita for c. USD 1.2bln; Holcim (-1.7%), sells its Philippines business for at least USD 807mln.
- US equity futures are higher, given the broader risk-on tone. Outside of the AZN-BMY story, market-moving US equity stories have been light. ZDnet reported that NVIDIA (NVDA) GeForce RTX 50 series graphics card prices in South Korea are rising by up to 30% from August, driven by higher GDDR7 memory costs and TSMC (TSM) advanced process wafer price increases.
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FX
- G10s are mostly weaker against the Buck bar EUR (-0.1%) and JPY (+0.3%). NOK (-0.9%) underperforms amid sharply lower oil prices.
- USD is firmer against most G10 peers except the Yen, whose gains are sufficient to keep DXY unchanged. A lot of moving parts, including geopolitics and Treasury action in FX markets. Geopolitics remain bearish for the USD, with Brent Oct’26 down ~7% after the US cancelled planned strikes on Iran and anticipates negotiations to resume today. Aside from this (and geopolitics) is incoming negotiations commentary and some US data, including the July ISM manufacturing release. DXY found buyers below 99.50 and the 100 DMA at 99.70. The next region to watch is around 100, which has proven sticky throughout the last few sessions.
- No real move seen in the EUR to the final EZ manufacturing PMI read, where revised metrics were broadly unchanged despite the revision period coinciding with energy upside related to the breakdown of the US-Iran MoU. Within the EZ-wide release, commentary downplayed the strong figure, noting “factories continue to reduce headcounts…. the manufacturing economy is not quite as healthy as the headline numbers might suggest.” EUR/USD gradually weakened throughout the morning to a 1.1520 base; the 50 DMA is likely to be supported at 1.1480. EUR/JPY gradually moved higher amid profit-taking around 180. Elsewhere, FT reported that the US Treasury intervened in the market by buying JPY for EUR.
- Several factors continue to buoy the JPY after roughly 5% gains against the Buck over the past three sessions. Remarks from top FX diplomat Mimura coincided with USD/JPY downside overnight. He noted “they will not hesitate to conduct further joint intervention” and “will respond to FX in coordination with monetary policy”, implying the BoJ should continue policy normalisation in reflection of the currency; remarks which pushed the pair to a 155.26 base, a level not seen since May where the low was 155.03. JPMorgan sees little chance coordinated intervention would drive a sustained rally that pushes the pair below 150, while ING said it struggles to see the action driving USD/JPY sustainably below 155.
FIXED INCOME
- The marked pullback in energy has weighed on yields, with fixed benchmarks firmer (ex-JGBs) across the board. No substantial move to Final PMIs or the morning’s other data points. Instead, we await details from the new round of US-Iran negotiations from this afternoon, and look back on themes from last week and the weekend; namely, JPY intervention & Fed reports/commentary.
- Bunds as high as 124.80, firmer by 40 ticks, but shy of the 124.94 peak from Friday and then a handful of levels from early last week between 125.04-25. Fleeting upside on a particularly poor German retail sales series this morning. Thereafter, Germany’s final Manufacturing PMI was unrevised, and showed an “impressive start” to Q3. However, caveats apply to this and were neatly surmised in the downwardly-revised EZ series, with new work inflows weak and as such headcounts continue to be reduced.
- Gilts, as is usually the case amid energy-driven moves, outperform. Firmer by over 60 ticks, but also shy of levels from early last week, with a double-top at 87.24 the first point vs today’s 87.12 high. Thereafter, 87.32 and 87.51 come into view. For the UK, specifics light, focus on energy as alluded to, no move to the Final Manufacturing PMI which saw a downward revision and somewhat mixed commentary. While the broader focus remains the global policy backdrop, after Bailey pushed back on edging toward a hike (keeping the extended hold narrative in play) vs commentary from and reporting around the Fed.
- USTs at a 108-16 peak, yet to test the 108-20+ to 108-30 highs from last week. Ahead, the space looks to its own Final Manufacturing PMI before the ISM print and then an AtlantaFed update, in addition to Treasury financing estimates. Looking back, the late-Friday & weekend focus was on geopolitics which has driven the bulk of action (see Commodities), alongside commentary from and reporting around the Fed. Musalem said the UST sell off sent a signal that credibility must be earned via communication and action. Additionally, the NYT reported that Chair Warsh is considering, and raised at the last meeting, reducing the number of policy meetings from the current eight. The latter points are potentially keeping US yields somewhat bid, and perhaps explain why USTs are yet to test the highs from last week, in contrast to peers.
- Finally, JGBs are under pressure. The benchmark opened higher and climbed to a 126.96 peak early on, before reversing and falling to 126.74 and since a 126.63 low, with downside of just under 10 ticks at most. A reversal that came as the US and Japan formally confirmed the joint JPY action last week, and kept open the possibility of further intervention. Amidst this, and driving JGBs lower, FX Chief Mimura added that there is a “shared understanding with the BoJ” on the topic. Following this, Japanese short-end yields have climbed and the odds of a hike in September have increased to c. 50%, while October is over 90% implied for a hike.
COMMODITIES
- Over the weekend, President Trump said the US had been fully prepared to launch a major military strike against Iran but agreed to pause the operation after requests from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, claiming that the outline of a deal had been reached involving the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and progress toward ending Iran’s nuclear programme, with negotiations expected to begin on Monday. Reports indicated that US CENTCOM had prepared a large-scale two-week bombing campaign if diplomacy failed. However, Iranian officials have since rejected the suggestion that direct US-Iran talks are underway.
- Since then, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran is negotiating only with Oman, with no plans to receive a US delegation or send an Iranian delegation in the coming days, while an Iranian lawmaker said there are no discussions with Washington or negotiations on the nuclear issue. Talks with Oman are reportedly progressing constructively on a new framework for safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including the exchange of maps over the past seven to eight days and plans for a temporary security corridor. Iranian officials have also continued consultations with Saudi and Pakistani counterparts, while warning the US against military action and stressing that Iranian forces remain on full alert. Meanwhile, two explosions were reported near commercial vessels off Oman’s Khasab without causing damage or casualties.
- WTI and Brent futures slumped some 6% at the open following Trump’s conditional cancellation of strikes on Iran. Prices have remained weak, with WTI Sep’26 sliding from Friday’s near-USD 87/bbl to open at USD 80.10/bbl this morning and then to a current Monday trough at USD 78.78/bbl. Brent Oct’26 hit a peak of USD 91.36/bbl on Friday, before opening today at USD 82.80/bbl, whilst the intraday low print currently resides at USD 81.55/bbl.
- Metals are mostly firmer as the slump in oil prices provides some reprieve for the space, although the USD has since clambered off lows and risen back above its 100 DMA (99.72). As such, spot gold resides towards the bottom end of a USD 4,047.35-4,079.19/oz range but above Friday’s USD 4,045.17/oz close. Spot silver oscillates in a USD 57.59/oz to USD 58.63/oz range at the time of writing, above Friday’s USD 57.63/oz close.
- 3M LME copper trades within a narrow 13,800.60- 13,903.00/t range, with gains capped as participants also digested disappointing Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data.
- BoK reportedly plans to purchase domestically refined gold bars for the first time in 13 years due to geopolitical risks, Korea Economic Daily reported.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 51.9 vs. Exp. 52.8 (Prev. 52.5).
- EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 51.9 vs. Exp. 52.0 (Prev. 51.4).
- German S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 52.2 vs. Exp. 52.2 (Prev. 50.3).
- French S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 49.8 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 51.2).
- Italian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 51.3 vs Exp. 52.3 (Prev. 52.2).
- Spanish S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 50.2 vs Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 49.7).
- German Retail Sales MoM (Jun) M/M -1.1% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 1.1%).
- German Retail Sales YoY (Jun) Y/Y -0.2% (Prev. 1.8%).
- Swiss Inflation Rate YoY (Jul) Y/Y 0.4% (Prev. 0.5%).
- Swiss Inflation Rate MoM (Jul) M/M -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0%).
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump said the US is locked and loaded and ready to go against Iran, but they “have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal have been agreed to. This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat. Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.”
- In further comments, US President Trump said the Iran attack would have been a massive one if not paused, adding there’s a deal on Hormuz and there will be a deal on denuclearisation. He added that he was asked very strongly by Iran to hold off the attack. On negotiations, he said they will begin tomorrow afternoon.
- US CENTCOM was reported on Friday to have prepared a large-scale operation in the form of a decisive two-week bombing campaign should President Trump choose escalation to break the deadlock in the Middle East, according to The Hill reports, citing sources.
- US Central Command intelligence official wrote in an email that they are seeking new and unconventional ways to increase pressure on and punish Iran, according to an internal message circulated among military analysts, according to CNN
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said negotiations with Oman are progressing, with the two sides holding constructive talks on a new framework and exchanging maps over the past seven to eight days for review, IRNA reported.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said Iran is working with Oman to establish a temporary security corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Tehran is not currently in dialogue with the US and is holding talks with Oman on the waterway. Baghaei added that issues with the US should be addressed at a later stage and that there are no plans to receive a US delegation or send an Iranian delegation in the coming days.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi told a cabinet meeting on Sunday that the negotiations with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz “were in the final stages”, according to FT. It was separately reported that Araghchi held phone calls with Saudi, Pakistan and Iraqi counterparts and exchanged views on the latest developments in the region, while he warned on Saturday against any adventurous action by the US and stressed Iran’s readiness to respond decisively to any aggression.
- Iranian lawmaker Qashqawi said there are no discussions with the US or talks on the nuclear issue, adding that US sanctions amount to war; lasting peace can only be pursued once the military, economic and media conflict ends, SNN reported.
- Iran’s Mehr News Agency rejected US President Trump’s claim that he halted attacks at the request of Iran and Middle East countries, while it called it “a new lie” and emphasised that Iran’s forces are on full alert.
- UKMTO said on Saturday it received a report of an incident 21 nautical miles northeast of Oman’s Khasab, where the master of the tanker saw a large splash and explosion in close proximity to the vessel, although no damage to the vessel was reported.
- Israel told the White House it has significant security concerns over a proposed Hamas disarmament agreement, saying intelligence suggests Hamas intends to rebuild its military capabilities rather than genuinely disarm. Israel added that it will not withdraw from most of Gaza until Hamas has fully completed the disarmament process.
- Palestinian civil defence said Israeli drone and airstrikes hit multiple locations across the Gaza Strip, killing at least 18 people, including two women and four children, with residential apartments, tents sheltering displaced people and civilian areas among the reported targets.
- Kpler shipping data showed 18 vessels passed through the Bab al-Mandeb on Sunday, compared to the 27 vessels on Saturday.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russia struck three ships carrying military goods in the Black Sea.
- Russian Transport Ministry said it is taking measures to ensure the safety of navigation and to protect ships in the Azov-Black Sea basin due to drone attacks, RIA reported.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin slumps despite the positive risk sentiment, slipping back below the USD 63k handle to a trough of USD 62.21k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mostly lower despite the geopolitical relief from Trump’s cancellation of Iran strikes, with a mixed performance in the tech sector, while markets also digested weak Chinese PMI data and confirmation of joint US-Japan intervention on the yen.
- ASX 200 was ultimately flat, with underperformance in energy, real estate and financials offset by resilience in defensives.
- Nikkei 225 retreated amid increased rate hike bets following last week’s hawkish comments from BoJ Governor Ueda at the post-meeting press conference, while there were also headwinds from a firmer currency after the US and Japan confirmed they jointly intervened to support the yen on Friday.
- KOSPI underperformed amid weakness in its tech heavyweights and with participants digesting earnings.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid divergences in the tech sector as hyperscalers advanced with Alibaba shares among today’s best performers after launching its Qwen 3.8 Max AI model, while chipmakers were pressured. Meanwhile, the mainland was subdued following disappointing Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data and as US-China frictions lingered, with MOFCOM criticising the US addition of Chinese companies to its forced labour entities list.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent posted “Friday’s coordinated foreign exchange actions countered disorderly yen movements.Treasury remains attentive and in close communication with our counterparts at MOF and BOJ. We will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention.”
- Japan’s Finance Ministry said it conducted coordinated yen buying intervention with the US on Friday and won’t hesitate to conduct further forex intervention with the US, adding intervention was to address recent excessive and disorderly moves in the yen.
- Japan top currency diplomat Mimura said they will not hesitate to conduct further joint intervention, adding joint intervention could be seen as the culmination of US-Japan currency alliance, and will continue to work closely with the BoJ.
- US President Trump, when asked regarding US intervening in the yen, said the US is intervening because the US has a good relationship with Japan, and we’re always there for Japan, adding the US is getting financial benefit out of the arrangement.
- BoJ data suggested Japan conducted around JPY 5.3tln of currency intervention on Friday; July’s money market conditions account shows a shortfall of around 11.4tln.
- PBoC will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy throughout H2 2026, with a focus on interest rate supervision, according to CCTV.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 50.9 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.7).
- Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 54.5 vs. Exp. 54.7 (Prev. 54.8).
- Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 52.0 vs. Exp. 51.7 (Prev. 51.5).
1c) Asian opening report
Stocks set for a firmer open as Brent sinks ~6% on Iran de-escalation; JPY extends gains on intervention threats – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Monday, Aug 03, 2026 – 01:16 AM
- US President Trump announced over the weekend that he cancelled strikes on Iran at the request of Tehran and other Middle East countries, subject to making a rapid deal; crude futures slumped 6% at the open.
- Japan’s Finance Ministry said it conducted coordinated yen-buying intervention with the US on Friday and won’t hesitate to conduct further forex intervention with the US; USD/JPY continued to decline and briefly dipped beneath the 156.00 handle.
- US President Trump, when asked regarding the US intervening in the yen, said the US is intervening because the US has a good relationship with Japan.
- APAC stocks were mostly lower despite the geopolitical relief from Trump’s cancellation of Iran strikes; US equity futures gained, and European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Global S&P Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul), German Retail Sales (Jun), Swiss Inflation (Jul), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), and US Treasury Financing Estimates. Earnings from Palantir and ONSemi.
SNAPSHOT
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IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump said the US is locked and loaded and ready to go against Iran, but they “have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal have been agreed to. This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat. Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.”
- US President Trump said the Iran attack would have been a massive one if not paused, while he added there’s a deal on Hormuz and there will be a deal on denuclearisation. Trump said he was asked very strongly by Iran to hold off the attack and was also asked by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE to pause the attack. Furthermore, he said they are talking to Iran in the form of a negotiation and that the negotiation begins on Monday afternoon.
- US CENTCOM was reported on Friday to have prepared a large-scale operation in the form of a decisive two-week bombing campaign should President Trump choose escalation to break the deadlock in the Middle East, according to The Hill, citing sources.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said regarding the MoU that “We must strive to force the enemy to remain committed to what it has signed”, adding that “The security of the country, the region, and our allies will be enhanced through this agreement”.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi told a cabinet meeting on Sunday that the negotiations with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz “were in the final stages”, according to FT. It was separately reported that Araghchi held phone calls with Saudi, Pakistani and Iraqi counterparts and exchanged views on the latest developments in the region, while he warned on Saturday against any adventurous action by the US and stressed Iran’s readiness to respond decisively to any aggression.
- Iran said talks with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz are unrelated to any third party, stressing that conditions there will not return to their pre-war state, according to Press TV.
- Iran’s Mehr News Agency rejected US President Trump’s claim that he halted attacks at the request of Iran and Middle East countries, while it called it “a new lie” and emphasised Iran’s forces are on full alert.
- UKMTO said on Saturday it received a report of an incident 21 nautical miles northeast of Oman’s Khasab, where the master of the tanker saw a large splash and explosion in close proximity to the vessel, although no damage to the vessel was reported. UKMTO also announced on Sunday that it received a report of an incident 20 nautical miles northeast of Oman’s Khasab, where the master of the tanker reported an explosion in close proximity to the vessel, although the vessel and crew are safe.
- Israel told the White House it has significant security concerns over a proposed Hamas disarmament agreement, saying intelligence suggests Hamas intends to rebuild its military capabilities rather than genuinely disarm. Israel added that it will not withdraw from most of Gaza until Hamas has fully completed the disarmament process.
- Palestinian civil defence said Israeli drone and airstrikes hit multiple locations across the Gaza Strip, killing at least 18 people, including women and children, with residential apartments, tents sheltering displaced people and civilian areas among the reported targets.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks continued their rebound on Friday, led by Amazon (AMZN +15.3%) reporting faster AWS growth; stronger-than-expected revenue reassured investors that heavier AI and data centre spending is being matched by accelerating cloud demand. All Mag-7 ex-AAPL also gained, whilst breadth remained poor, as displayed by 4/11 sectors trading higher. Consumer Discretionary, Communications, Energy, and Industrials gained, whilst Materials and Tech lagged. Apple (AAPL -7.3%) and memory weakness were behind the Tech underperformance. Apple reported weak services, iPad, and China sales figures, alongside underwhelming revenue guidance. Meanwhile, memory names were weighed on by Japanese memory chipmaker Kioxia missing earnings and guidance expectations.
- SPX +0.70% at 7,490, NDX +0.60% at 28,274, DJI +0.53% at 52,491, RUT -0.50% at 2,931.
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TARIFFS/TRADE
- China’s MOFCOM said the US addition of Chinese companies to its forced labour entities list had no factual basis and that US actions disrupt the stability of global supply chains.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed Chair Warsh was reported on Friday to be considering reducing the frequency of Fed Policy meetings, according to NYT.
- Fed’s Barkin (2027 voter) said on Friday that it was a ‘close call’ whether rates are high enough to bring inflation down, while he didn’t know whether he would have joined three fellow regional Fed presidents who voted for higher rates. However, he said “I think there is a strong case there” for adding restraint and taking back some of last year’s rate cuts, according to WSJ.
- Fed’s Musalem (2028 voter) said the sell-off in US Treasuries the past week signalled the need for the Fed to earn its inflation-fighting credibility with interest rate hikes, according to FT.
- US Senators Collins and Murray proposed a continuing resolution to fund the US government through December 11, while also blocking a proposed Office of Management and Budget rule that would allow the administration to rescind federal grants to states, including Democratic-led states, according to Semafor.
- Trump Media and Technology Group (DJT) officially rolled out Truth API, which is its new subscription-based data service on Saturday, giving paying customers faster, real-time access to Truth Social posts from Trump and other high-profile accounts for a monthly fee of up to USD 100k.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mostly lower despite the geopolitical relief from Trump’s cancellation of Iran strikes, with a mixed performance in the tech sector, while markets also digested weak Chinese PMI data and confirmation of joint US-Japan intervention on the yen.
- ASX 200 was ultimately flat, with underperformance in energy, real estate and financials offset by resilience in defensives.
- Nikkei 225 retreated amid increased rate hike bets following last week’s hawkish comments from BoJ Governor Ueda at the post-meeting press conference, while there were also headwinds from a firmer currency after the US and Japan confirmed they jointly intervened to support the yen on Friday.
- KOSPI underperformed amid weakness in its tech heavyweights and with participants digesting earnings.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid divergences in the tech sector as hyperscalers advanced with Alibaba shares among today’s best performers after launching its Qwen 3.8 Max AI model, while chipmakers were pressured. Meanwhile, the mainland was subdued following disappointing Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data and as US-China frictions lingered, with MOFCOM criticising the US addition of Chinese companies to its forced labour entities list.
- US equity futures gained following President Trump’s decision to cancel a massive attack on Iran, subject to making a rapid deal, while he touted a deal on Hormuz with negotiations to begin on Monday afternoon.
- European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.9% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.2% on Friday.
FX
- DXY marginally softened following the drop in oil prices and lower yields, but with price action contained amid ongoing Fed policy uncertainty, with a report on Friday noting that Chair Warsh is mulling reducing the frequency of policy meetings. Fed’s Barkin also said on Friday that it was a ‘close call’ whether rates are high enough to bring inflation down, and he didn’t know whether he would have joined three fellow regional Fed presidents who voted for higher rates, but thought there waws a strong case there for adding restraint and taking back some of last year’s rate cuts, while Musalem said the sell-off in US Treasuries the past week signalled the need for the Fed to earn its inflation-fighting credibility with interest rate hikes.
- EUR/USD eked mild gains in range-bound trade amid the absence of any major fresh catalysts from the bloc and after last Friday’s whipsawing through the 1.1500 level.
- GBP/USD gave back its 1.3500 status, with weekend newsflow quiet for the UK, although it was reported on Friday that Chancellor Healey told cabinet ministers to prepare for budget cuts.
- USD/JPY continued to decline and briefly dipped beneath the 156.00 handle after the US and Japan confirmed they jointly intervened on Friday to curb the yen’s weakness, while trader reports noted some hedge funds were selling USD/JPY, which potentially could be due to speculation of further intervention on Monday given the IMF currency guidelines that classify three days of intervention as a single market operation.
- Antipodeans remained afloat amid the softer buck but with upside limited after the miss on Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7898 vs exp. 6.7364 (prev. 6.7894)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures opened higher as a drop in oil prices eased some of the inflationary pressures and dragged yields lower, although further upside in T-note futures was limited ahead of key jobs data later in the week and with the ongoing uncertainty regarding Fed policy. Furthermore, there were recent comments from Fed’s Musalem that the sell-off seen in US Treasuries the prior week signalled the need for the Fed to earn its inflation-fighting credibility with an interest rate hike.
- Bund futures benefitted from the lower oil prices and clawed back some of last Friday’s losses, while participants await the incoming German Retail Sales data scheduled today.
- 10yr JGB futures remained pressured as short-end yields climbed on increased rate hike bets in the aftermath of hawkish comments late last week from BoJ Governor Ueda and following US-Japan intervention.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures slumped at the start of the week, with WTI briefly falling beneath USD 79/bbl after US President Trump announced over the weekend that he cancelled strikes on Iran at the request of Tehran and other Middle East countries, subject to making a rapid deal, while he touted a deal on Hormuz and said negotiations will begin on Monday afternoon. Elsewhere, OPEC+ members agreed to increase output by 188k bpd in September, to complete the rollback of all voluntary cuts, and signalled to pause for the rest of the year.
- OPEC+ agreed to an increase in production quotas for September of 188,000 barrels per day, while it stated that it had little incentive to rush into further supply changes after having completed the restoration campaign. Furthermore, its base case is for a pause in Q4 as the group prepares for 2027 quota negotiations, while the next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for 6th September.
- Kuwait increased its crude oil output to nearly 2mln bpd in July from about 1.65mln bpd in June, according to a source familiar with the matter cited by Reuters.
- Indian Oil Corp bought a record 84% share of its crude oil from the spot market during the April-June quarter amid the Middle East supply hit.
- Spot gold gapped higher at the open as oil prices dropped, but then proceeded in a choppy fashion.
- Copper futures were supported by the geopolitical relief, but with gains capped amid the mixed risk appetite, while participants also digested disappointing Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin gradually declined throughout the session to beneath the USD 63,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japan’s Finance Ministry said it conducted coordinated yen-buying intervention with the US on Friday and won’t hesitate to conduct further forex intervention with the US, in which intervention was to address recent excessive and disorderly moves in the yen. Furthermore, Finance Minister Katayama wouldn’t comment on whether there was forex intervention today, but reiterated they won’t hesitate to take FX steps at any time.
- Japan’s top currency diplomat Mimura said they will not hesitate to conduct further joint intervention, and that joint intervention could be seen as the culmination of the US-Japan currency alliance.
- US President Trump, when asked regarding the US intervening in the yen, said the US is intervening because the US has a good relationship with Japan, and we’re always there for Japan, while he added that the US is getting financial benefit out of the arrangement.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent posted that Friday’s coordinated foreign exchange actions countered disorderly yen movements and that the Treasury remains attentive and in close communication with counterparts at Japan’s MoF and BoJ, while he added that they will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention.
- Macau gaming revenue in July declined by 8.4% Y/Y to MOP 20.3bln, amid the World Cup and travel disruptions from Typhoon Noul.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 50.9 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.7)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russia launched ballistic missiles and attack drones targeting Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and Ukrainian forces struck oil facilities deep inside Russian territory, while reciprocal strikes on infrastructure between the sides continued on Sunday.
- IAEA said that Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant lost off-site power for the 23rd time since the military conflict began.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK Chancellor Healey was reported on Friday to have told cabinet ministers to prepare for budget cuts, according to The Times.
- EU ministers are to discuss the migration crisis in the Spanish territory of Ceuta after Spanish PM Sánchez hit out regarding the criticism of Spain’s handling of the situation, according to FT.
- end
NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN
JAPAN
Japan, Bretton Woods 2.0, & The End Of The Carry Era
Sunday, Aug 02, 2026 – 04:55 PM
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama is set to announce as early as Monday that Tokyo and Washington are coordinating on steps in the foreign exchange market to curb the yen’s weakness, a person familiar with the situation told Bloomberg.
Satsuki Katayama
The content of the announcement is still being worked on but could happen as early as Monday morning, the person said, declining to be identified as the information isn’t public.
Reuters earlier reported Katayama would confirm the joint action, and reinforce the two sides’ commitment to battle what they deem as excessive declines in the yen.
Japanese authorities bought yen and sold dollars during New York trading on Friday, Bloomberg reported earlier, citing one person with knowledge of the matter. At the close of New York trading on Friday, the yen was quoted at 157.40 to the dollar, the strongest since early May.
Just two days earlier, it was flirting around the weakest levels since 1986.
The sharp gains were fueled by a combination of direct purchases of the yen, calls by officials to banks that trade the currency and jawboning from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Katayama.
Bessent’s commitment to shoring up the yen was also shown when Reuters published a photograph of a notepad in front of him at a cabinet meeting in Camp David on Friday.
Under a “To Do” title, it was written “Buy Japanese Yen (JPY) $5-10 bil.”
Japan’s original plan appeared to have been to stick to a “no comment” line while the operation was underway, and offer only subtle hints of US support.
The approach was kept to Thursday and Friday.
But with multiple media reports emerging and Bessent’s to-do list on show, authorities may have decided to change course and make a clear public announcement.
The operation on joint action is “still ongoing,” Reuters said, citing an unidentified government official.
As James Thorne, Chief Market Strategist at Wellington Altus, explained via X, Bessent’s move toward the New York Fed matters because it signals that Treasury understands the long end is being driven by flows, not by the inflation scare Wall Street keeps recycling.
Japan is now central to that story.
If Tokyo must defend the yen, the Ministry of Finance may need to sell U.S. Treasuries, and when the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt becomes a seller, the long end will reprice.
That is why this moment looks bigger than a routine currency episode.
It has the feel of a new Plaza Accord and the opening phase of Bretton Woods 2.0.
Since the 1980s, Japan has sat at the heart of the global yen carry trade, exporting savings, suppressing yields, and helping sustain a financial order built on cheap leverage and central-bank engineering. That order is now breaking down.
The end of QE and the coming end of the yen carry trade mean capital markets, not central banks, will increasingly set rates.
This is also why the inflation narrative is so weak.
Breakevens remain anchored. Credit markets are not pricing a new inflation regime. Wall Street keeps labeling every rise in the long end as “inflation risk,” but that is intellectual laziness.
The real story is Japan, reserve liquidation, and a global adjustment process that has barely been recognized.
Adding to that pressure is Big Tech’s pivot from providing savings to demanding credit.
The same companies that once absorbed duration are now issuing debt to finance AI infrastructure, data centers, chips, and power.
That is another reason the long end is moving.
The upshot, secular forces are tightening credit conditions, and central bankers need to cut policy rates to help facilitate the adjustment.
A global economy hooked on the carry trade cannot go cold turkey.
This unwind requires finesse.
Bessent is starting that process, but central bankers and Wall Street still need to abandon the Keynesian dogma that treats rise in the long end as an inflation scare!
The deeper shift is structural.
America is escaping secular stagnation by running the economy hot through supply-side economics, deregulation, and productive investment.
A Warsh Fed would fit that world, because growth would no longer be treated as a policy mistake.
Japan, meanwhile, may finally be restructuring both its economy and its geopolitical role.
That is why this is not an inflation story. It is the beginning of a new regime.
end
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
UK
SPAIN
Crazy Footage Shows Migrants Rampaging, Breaking Into Homes After Invading Spain
Saturday, Aug 01, 2026 – 07:00 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,
Nearly 50,000 military-aged men stormed the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla from Morocco in a single day. What followed was not “asylum-seeking.” It was open looting, home invasions, vehicle burnings, and street chaos while Spanish authorities largely stood aside.
Spain’s socialist government under Pedro Sánchez had already rolled out mass regularisation schemes and refused to treat the border as a national emergency.
The result played out in real time across the North African territories that form the European Union’s only land borders with Africa.
INSANE Footage Captures TENS OF THOUSANDS Of Illegals INVADING Spain
The country is going to collapse…
Estimates from Spain’s Interior Ministry and local sources put the number who crossed into Ceuta alone at around 49,000 in 24 hours – roughly equivalent to the U.S. troop presence in the Middle East.
Ceuta’s president Juan Jesús Vivas described the situation as “absolutely unsustainable” and a “total humanitarian and social emergency,” noting reception centres were already saturated and more than 200 arrivals a day had become routine in the preceding period.
Reports have also suggested that the influx was so severe that at least 19 to 34 migrants died in the waters or in stampedes at the Tarajal breakwater.
Footage from the ground shows columns of young men pouring through streets, scaling fences, and swimming around coastal barriers.
In Melilla the scenes turned violent just as quickly. Migrants set vehicles ablaze after breaching the border fence.
There is obviously no processing of these arrivals and no where for them to go. Further videos captured groups breaking into residential buildings, looting stores, and occupying private property.
Some clips show African migrants forcing entry into Spanish homes in Ceuta while residents look on helplessly.
News footage highlighted crowds of military aged migrant men surrounding a Spanish woman who was visibly distressed as the men laughed and closed in around her – an image that has circulated widely as a symbol of the total collapse of order.
Local residents did not simply accept the invasion. In Ceuta, Spanish patriots took to the streets themselves to protect their neighbourhoods and homes when official forces proved insufficient.
Groups of men formed ad-hoc patrols, confronting the influx directly.
The Spanish response was a deployment of roughly 100 to 150 military personnel and additional police.
Orders, according to on-the-ground reports, were to hold position rather than aggressively close the border or remove the entrants.
Armoured vehicles appeared, yet the fence remained open in places and the flow continued through the night.
One reporter on the scene at 4:30 a.m. described 100 people crossing every minute while the military presence did little to stem it.
The scale and coordination point beyond spontaneous movement. Moroccan authorities were filmed emptying trucks full of young men near the Ceuta border.
Separate videos show convoys of trucks and buses ferrying thousands toward the frontier from towns an hour away.
Facebook groups with tens of thousands of members openly shared routes, maps, equipment lists, and contact numbers, framing the crossing as a “liberation.”
One widely shared clip asks the obvious questions: who feeds them, who sets the date and route, and who benefits?
Observers have noted the timing – coming after a Spanish Supreme Court ruling that limited immediate pushbacks for sea arrivals and against the backdrop of long-running territorial disputes over the enclaves.
Some speculate Morocco is testing Spain’s resolve or seeking leverage. One analysis framed the surge as a potential path to forcing Spanish evacuation of the territories it has held for centuries.
By Friday morning a curious reverse movement also appeared. Hundreds of the same men began heading back toward Morocco on their own, citing hunger and the fact that the city was largely shut down.
“We are hungry, we are going home,” some said on camera.
The political fallout has already crossed the Mediterranean. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni called the images from Ceuta proof that uncontrolled illegal immigration poses a concrete threat to Europe’s borders and said Italy was prepared to take extraordinary measures, including suspension of Schengen with Spain.
Matteo Salvini demanded the same.
In France, Marine Le Pen insisted on immediate reinforcement of border controls and, if she wins power, restriction of free movement to EU nationals only.
Marion Maréchal described the events as a genuine migrant invasion that requires ending the current Schengen framework.
Spanish forces were eventually deployed after the border was overwhelmed
modernityFinland, Sweden and Denmark also announced Support for the move.
Some think it’s too little too late, however.
Sánchez’s government has spoken of “solutions” and “cooperation” while deploying limited forces and rejecting a formal national emergency declaration.
The footage from Ceuta and Melilla shows what that approach produces: overwhelmed police, residents forced to defend their own streets, homes occupied, and a clear message to the next wave that the door remains open.
Europe’s external border has been tested in the most public way possible. The question now is whether any government still willing to enforce it remains.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
END
SPAIN SUNDAY
No, The Spanish Invaders Have Not All Just ‘Gone Home’
Sunday, Aug 02, 2026 – 07:00 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,
Spanish authorities and their leftist allies are pushing the line that the tens of thousands of migrants who stormed Ceuta have mostly “gone home.” The claim is pure fantasy. Fresh video from the streets shows the city still under siege, with invaders assaulting facilities, smashing graves, clashing with locals, and turning a Spanish enclave into a no-go zone.
This is the same dangerous mass migration reality that open-borders ideologues keep denying, even as the evidence piles up in real time.
The official narrative landed hard on Friday. Spain’s Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares declared that “the practical totality of those who entered Ceuta have already returned to Morocco.” The Spanish Embassy in the UK amplified the message, insisting almost everyone was gone, that no one could reach the mainland without ID checks, and that Schengen integrity remained fully guaranteed.
The Guardia Civil’s own association posted that Ceuta was “breathing again,” with returns advancing little by little and normality returning thanks to security forces.
Locals on the ground immediately called it a lie. One Ceuta resident posted that around 50,000 invaders remained, the city was collapsed, and the official numbers were pure spin. Video filmed that same afternoon showed streets still packed, nothing like the “most have left” story.
Just days earlier, we documented the initial invasion and the subsequent rampage through homes and streets.
CRAZY Footage Of Migrants Rampaging, Breaking Into Homes After Invading Spain
The claim that the crisis simply evaporated overnight collapses under the weight of the footage still circulating.
While Madrid spun the returns, Moroccan migrants were filmed storming a public asylum centre in Ceuta. The CETI facility came under direct assault as the government continued insisting order had been restored.
Elsewhere, invaders smashed Christian graves and hurled the broken pieces at Spanish citizens. Locals fought back with whatever they could grab while police and military presence remained inadequate.
Knives came out in the open. Migrants stabbed one another in the streets while Spanish residents stayed locked indoors, prisoners in their own city of roughly 80,000 people now overrun.
Questa e Ceuta oggi :” due immigrati marocchini si prendono a coltellete nella cittadina”. Questi,per i buonisti, sono quelli che fanno i lavori che non facciamo piu e ci pagano le https://t.co/Xrryn1MRg3 andate a cagare. pic.twitter.com/rqo5IFFeT6— il bianconero (@IlZebraapois) August 1, 2026
Cars belonging to locals were attacked simply for driving past and showing dissatisfaction. Grocery stores had to be fenced off and guarded by police to stop looting by the hungry crowds.
Vehicles burned at the border as the surge continued. Groups of military-age men, far from the “families and refugees” talking point, were filmed taking escalators and moving through the city with the swagger of occupation rather than desperation.
A morning drive through the “conquered” enclave captured the new normal: streets transformed, Spanish life subordinated.
END
SPAIN
DR LACALLE.
Spain’s Immigration Crisis: Ceuta & The Collapse Of Sánchez’s Pro-Migration Experiment
Sunday, Aug 02, 2026 – 09:20 AM
The new migration crisis in Ceuta is not an isolated episode or a simple border emergency. It is the result of a deeply irresponsible and damaging political and economic model. Sánchez boasts about aggregate growth while destroying cohesion, productivity, net real income per capita, and institutions. Spain is not an example of growth, migrant integration, or cohesion. It is a statistical mirage juiced by population increase and a fiscal time bomb. It has taken a migration crisis for the European Union to wake up.
Illegal immigration is not a stroke of fate or a recipe for growth and for shoring up public finances; it is a strategy of control and demolition of the nation from within, with the aim of creating a dependent, captive underclass, buying votes by altering demographics and shifting onto future generations the enormous cost to the state of a population increase whose net contribution to public accounts is overwhelmingly negative.
Spain was presented by progressives as a model of migrant integration. It was never true, and now it has become a full‑blown crisis. The uncontrolled wave of illegal immigration is the direct result of the socialist government’s policies: mass regularizations, subsidies, and the constant message that illegal migration pays.
For years, Spain has attracted uncontrolled inflows with promises of regularization and public transfers, while Brussels looked the other way because headline GDP grew and the statistics looked “inclusive.” However, the cost is enormous and borne by Spanish workers and taxpayers and, increasingly, by the entire European Union. Its elite tolerated Spain’s destructive policies as long as aggregate GDP was fattened, even in the face of the clear warning sign that GDP per capita was stagnating and pressure on public services and social unrest were rising.
The Sánchez government and its coalition have imposed unprecedented regularization processes, presenting them as a model for Europe and explicitly linking them to GDP increases and the supposed sustainability of the welfare state. This was a major deception. Regularized illegal immigration does not make pensions more sustainable; quite the opposite, because its net contribution to public accounts is unquestionably negative, as all studies on the matter show. Meanwhile, the government inflates aggregate GDP, but GDP per capita, net real wages, productivity, and the real effective employment rate remain stagnant.
The Spanish government has presented itself to the world with an openly pro‑immigration stance, at odds with decisions taken by the European Union itself. However, the Commission and the EU remained silent in the face of the assault on institutions, corruption, and the disaster of migration policy. European institutions bear responsibility because they supported and amplified Sánchez’s destructive, extensive migration policy, presenting it as if it were inclusive. They ignored the evidence that Spain’s numbers are poor once you look beyond headline GDP.
Stagnant GDP per capita: the IMF’s own estimates show that Spain’s GDP per capita will grow by just 1% a year between 2018 and 2027, exactly the same as the euro area average.
Falling net real wages: under Sánchez they have fallen by almost 3%.
Real unemployment: 3.7 million real unemployed, including inactive workers registered with the SEPE and 792,341 inactive permanent‑intermittent workers. The number of effectively unemployed has barely improved since 2019.
Zero fiscal consolidation: the net debt of the public administrations under the Excessive Deficit Procedure has risen to a record 1.6 trillion, while the total liabilities of the public sector have increased by more than half a trillion to 2.2 trillion. Debt‑to‑GDP and the deficit only appear to improve because the denominator is being doped with immigration and inflation above the euro area average.
An unsustainable Social Security system: Sánchez has multiplied Social Security’s debt, and the system needs a bailout every year from a state that is already in deficit. Immigration is not going to reduce that enormous hole; it increases it, as its net contribution is mostly negative.
All the data on the Spanish economy show weakness, statistical illusions, and severe imbalances, but the European Union and the Commission preferred to remain silent, buy the official propaganda, and cling to a doped aggregate GDP. The same thing they did with Greece between 2004 and 2007.
The official narrative highlights headline GDP contributions and demographic arguments while remaining silent about the stagnation of GDP per capita, productivity, net real wages, and the fiscal and institutional strain of absorbing huge irregular inflows through emergency regularizations instead of orderly, skills‑based migration. The EU allowed it because Sánchez sold it as a model when the time bomb was already obvious.
The Spanish government’s strategy is clear: to create a gigantic underclass dependent on public subsidies and captive as a future electorate. The massive inflow of illegal immigrants is the consequence of years of mass regularization policies, subsidy announcements, basic income plans, and a sustained pull factor.
Ceuta is facing its worst migration crisis in years, with thousands of irregular entries in barely a week and reception facilities completely overwhelmed. Centers for adults and minors are overflowing, local authorities speak openly of a humanitarian and social emergency, and the daily pressure on the border shows just how far the state has lost its capacity for anticipation and deterrence. This is not just a migration crisis. It is also a crisis of authority, planning, and institutional credibility.
To understand what Sánchez calls “the rocket,” today in Ceuta “GDP goes up,” but people in Ceuta are poorer and worse off.
More migration pressure, overwhelmed public services, greater dependence on public money, more debt, and higher future taxes, while Sánchez boasts about the figures and abandons the border.
The government uses the 0.7% quarterly and 2.7% year‑on‑year GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026 as if it were proof of strength, but aggregate growth is not prosperity. Spain is not growing; it is swelling and getting deeper into debt. The government relies on demographic expansion, artificially propped‑up domestic demand, rising public spending, and jobs in low‑productivity sectors.
Spain is growing in volume and getting poorer in quality. Aggregate GDP increases, but the net real income of its citizens deteriorates. The economy is doped with population and spending while efficiency, competitiveness, and per-capita well-being worsen.
On top of this comes inflation. The flash estimate for July, at 3.5%, once again puts Spain above the euro area average, which had eased to around 2.8%. This gap is not irrelevant. It means loss of competitiveness, more pressure on costs, further erosion of purchasing power, and greater difficulty in turning growth into real prosperity. Spain not only grows with low productivity but also with relatively high inflation. It is the worst combination for selling a supposed durable economic success.
The Spanish economy shows no structural leap in productivity, no decisive improvement in productive investment, and no solid convergence in GDP per capita with the most advanced economies of the euro area, where it remains 8 points below the average of a European Union that itself is not doing well, according to Eurostat.
The Ceuta crisis is a symbol of the complete failure of this model. A massive, irregular inflow of people generates, in the short term, a higher volume of measured activity because it triggers emergency spending, more budget mobilization, and more administrative needs. Statistically, that “pushes up GDP.” However, socially and economically the balance is devastating: it makes citizens poorer, worsens security, increases pressure on housing, healthcare, and education, and the cost is borne by taxpayers who already shoulder high debt, rising taxes, and a loss of net real purchasing power.
This is what “sanchismo” calls success: the numbers grow, and reality deteriorates.
Spain is not suffering border chaos by accident. It is the consequence of Sánchez’s mass regularizations and years of pull‑factor policies, a message to the world that entering illegally pays off.
It is not a mistake; it is a power strategy. Sánchez seeks to create a captive underclass, dependent on subsidies and papers, that will vote for him in the future and shift the social consequences and the bill onto taxpayers. While the government sinks under corruption scandals and loses social support, it tries to cling to power by dismantling Spain and its institutions and importing the future voters it is losing today.
Sánchez is not governing Spain; he is dismantling it in an attempt to cling to power. That is the big lie of Sánchez’s “rocket,” bloating up instead of truly growing.
It seemed Elon Musk was on to Sánchez early on. After the prime minister defended his amnesty plan in April, Musk wrote on X, “Dirty Sánchez is guilty of high treason.”
Sánchez responded cheekily at the time, “Mars can wait. Humanity can’t.”
Call that humanity?
END
SPAIN/ZERO HEDGE
Entitled Migrants Complain About Hospitality And Prices After Invading Spanish Territory
Sunday, Aug 02, 2026 – 11:05 AM
One of the most egregious fantasies promoted by liberals over the past several decades is the worshipful image of the desperate and grateful third world asylum seeker. We see it constantly in movies television and popular media; the narrative of the “huddled masses, yearning to breathe free…” This narrative has become so ingrained in western culture that it is absolutely world shattering when people find out how entitled and arrogant most migrants really are.
The flood of over 60,000 Muslim migrants from Morocco to the Spanish enclave of Ceuta has dashed a lot of progressive delusions in the past week, with migrants fresh from the beaches already looting businesses, raiding homes, attacking locals and setting fires. European officials are reluctantly admitting that the invasion is a problem that must be corrected.
The video evidence on social media is a crushing blow to the multicultural agenda, so much so that Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, complained about the optics of the images coming out of Ceuta on social media.
Spanish officials have attacked the negative response of some European leaders as “selfish” and “prejudiced”, stating that the European Union would be harmed by the “polarizing” rhetoric.
But isn’t this migrant horde exactly what European elites have been enabling for the past decade? Yes, it is, but the Cueta incident is happening too quickly and gaining far too much public attention. They usually prefer a “frog in a boiling pot” strategy over blatant barbarian pillaging plastered all over international news.
But it gets much worse for the multicultural cabal, because interviews with these migrants are hitting the mainstream. What these people have to say about their stay in Ceuta so far is mind blowing. The entitlement is unprecedented. Third worlders thought they were marching into a free buffet with easy access to amenities, jobs and westerners bowing at their feet.
Instead, the illegals were met with closed businesses (for safety), prices they could not afford, no jobs and hostility from other migrants who came to Ceuta legally.
People being beaten or killed (if the claims are true) is unfortunate, but then again, it seems to have worked. Large numbers of migrants are reportedly leaving Ceuta on their own because they fear backlash from the locals. There’s an important lesson that could be learned her by populations across the western world:
If governments are not going to do their duty and secure national borders from invaders, then the public still has the power to make those invaders leave simply by making the lives of illegal migrants miserable. If their experiences in the west are worse than their experiences in their home country, they will go back.
Of course, the entitlement of migrants is amplified by progressive leaders in the west. Foreigners have been regaled with stories from western media about a land of plenty and a life of ease. All they have to do is make the crossing and the streets will be paved with riches for the taking. It is clear that the majority of migrants entering Ceuta were under the impression that they would be welcomed with open arms and lavished with subsidies.
Instead, the Spanish military is escorting thousands of them out of the enclave. Or, at the very least, the military is making a good show of trying to remove the migrants from the area. Meanwhile, the locals are doing the job that the government should have been doing from the beginning, which is making Ceuta so inhospitable to migrants that they will never want to go back.
END
UK
Britain’s Problems Didn’t Begin With Brexit
Saturday, Aug 01, 2026 – 08:10 AM
Authored by Jason Sorens via The Daily Economy,
Ten years ago, Britons voted to leave the European Union, launching three and a half years of tumultuous negotiations and domestic political ructions, only subsiding after the UK’s official withdrawal in January 2020.
It’s tempting to see Brexit as a watershed moment in Britain’s political economy. Britons themselves now tend to regret the choice rather than affirm it, with narrow majorities affirming that Brexit has been “more of a failure” and supporting restoring free movement with the EU in exchange for single-market access.
Contrary to some forecasts, Brexit has been closer to an economic blip than a disaster. Figure 1 shows net disposable household income per capita in the UK and comparable countries. While Ireland has rocketed ahead of this whole group, it’s difficult to see any worse economic performance in the UK compared to France and Germany since 2020.
Figure 1: Disposable Income Over Time in the UK and Comparable Countries.
But this low bar—no worse than France or Germany—reflects the deeper ailment in British politics. Brexit was merely one episode in a long series of abdications of responsibility by British leaders.
Free-market Brexiteers like Daniel Hannan assured us that Brexit would allow the UK to deregulate and improve competitiveness:
“It’s 24 June 2025 …. The years that followed the 2016 referendum didn’t just reinvigorate our economy, our democracy and our liberty. They improved relations with our neighbours,” he forecast on June 21, 2016. He went on:
“The United Kingdom is now the region’s foremost knowledge-based economy. We lead the world in biotech, law, education, the audio-visual sector, financial services and software. New industries, from 3D printing to driverless cars, have sprung up around the country. Older industries, too, have revived as energy prices have fallen back to global levels: steel, cement, paper, plastics and ceramics producers have become competitive again.”
None of that happened. The UK never undertook deregulation commensurate with the new barriers that Brexit imposed, such as new customs paperwork and inspections for goods traveling between the UK and the Continent, and strict limits on Britons and Europeans moving to each other’s countries for work. According to a research briefing from the House of Commons Library, “most regulations made under the [UK law authorizing repeal of EU regulations] have not led to substantive policy changes.”
So much for Brexit’s oversold transformative potential. The real story Britons must grapple with is a nearly 20-year narrative of decline.
Britain had once outperformed its closest Continental peers on the back of a market-friendly economic model created by Thatcher, preserved by Major, and adapted by Blair. Since the disastrous premiership of Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Britain has sickened itself with the same maladies that have since left most of Western Europe stagnating.
Brown’s premiership, spanning 2007 to 2010, saw the government debt-to-GDP ratio increase 76 percent in just three years. All of that increase came from government spending, not tax cuts (taxes were raised at the high end and on some middle-income households). While the Great Recession caused government spending and debt to rise everywhere, Britain’s increase was much larger than that of France and Germany (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Government Debt to GDP Ratios in the UK, France, and Germany.
Another long-term legacy of Brown’s premiership has been the Equality Act, which introduced the language of “rights” to economic contracts. It mandates detailed fair employment protections across a broad range of protected categories, including a Marxist-inspired concept of equal pay for equal “demands” or “effort.” It is the legal basis under which some courts are now ruling that it is unlawful to pay men and women different wages in a single company even if they do different jobs.
The Conservatives took power, in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, from Brown’s Labour, but to soothe voters worried about a return of Thatcherism, successive Tory Prime Ministers maintained the high-tax, high-spending, high-regulation equilibrium.
Brown’s tax hikes had increased tax revenues to GDP from 32 to 33 percent. Despite a small top marginal rate cut, Conservative-led governments raised VAT and eventually, under Rishi Sunak, reversed cuts to corporate income taxes. By 2022, tax revenues to GDP stood at 35 percent.
One of the UK’s main economic policy advantages over the Continent has been a flexible labor market, but that is now under threat. The Blair government introduced a largely symbolic minimum wage, but the Tories hiked it to new heights, from £5.52 in 2007 to £11.44 in 2024 when Labour won back power, with inflation-adjusted rates rising inexorably since 2015. The UK minimum wage is now two-thirds of the median wage; that ratio is one of the highest in the OECD.
An example of Britons’ growing obsession with getting free stuff from the government is the explosion of the Motability scheme, which is supposed to give mobility-impaired disabled people the right to allocate some of their disability benefits toward leasing new cars. Eligibility for and participation in the program have exploded, to the point that a fifth of all new cars in the UK—and reportedly a full half of those in Northern Ireland—are leased through Motability. Motability itself is an ostensibly private nonprofit, but its monopoly on managing this welfare scheme has enriched it to the point of dispensing multimillion-pound bonuses to its executives.
The overall disability caseload in the UK has grown by 57 percent since 2005, rising from 7.4 percent of the population in May 2005 to 10.8 percent in May 2025. Most of that growth has been in just the last five years.
Benefits for pensioners have also exploded. In coalition with the Lib Dems, the Tories enacted the “triple lock,” growing social security benefits at the highest of earnings growth, CPI inflation, or 2 percent.
But it is seen as not nice in mainstream British discourse to question the expansion of welfare and especially cornerstones of politically correct regulation like the Equality Act.
British governments have failed to level with the British people. The punchbowl is gone. The money is simply not there. The debt vigilantes are at the door, with the British benchmark 10-year rate among the highest in the developed world (Figure 3).
Figure 3: 10-Year Bond Yields, Selected Countries, June 22, 2026.
Is the United States faring any better? Not much. At least the U.S. has had some real deregulation, but the fantasy of debt-fueled free lunches still reigns supreme in the minds of politicians and many voters.
Still, Britain stands out as a country where politicians have waved away tradeoffs and legislated feel-good rules that grab a few days of good press at the expense of long-term economic pain. Brexit was fantasy politics, to be sure, but that is something it shares with the politically correct Regime of Nice that has ruled the country for the past 20 years.
END
GERMANY/RHINE RIVER
the transporting of goods is now in jeopardy!1
Logistical Nightmare Unfolds As Rhine Plunges Toward Record Low
Monday, Aug 03, 2026 – 02:45 AM
The Rhine, one of Europe’s most vital arteries for transporting industrial goods, has fallen to one of its lowest level since the drought-stricken summer of 2018. The resulting loss of shipping capacity is driving up freight costs and raising the risk of supply disruptions for iron ore, coal, chemicals, petroleum products and other commodities moving through Europe’s industrial heartland.
The Rhine water level gauge at Kaub, a key chokepoint on the Rhine for shipments heading to southern Germany and Switzerland, has fallen to just 25 centimeters, the lowest reading since the drought-stricken summer of 2018.
At levels of 40 to 50 centimeters, vessels can carry only about 20% of their normal cargo, according to Germany’s Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration. The resulting loss of transport capacity is driving up freight costs and increasing the risk of supply disruptions of critical commodities.
German federal data compiled by ETH Zurich shows that a drop below 24 centimeters, which is in the forecast for this week, would mark the lowest level since records began in 1880.
JPMorgan analyst Chetan Udeshi told clients that with Rhine water levels dropping to 2018 levels, this may spark a drag across Germany’s chemicals industry:
BASF/K+S/Sector read: Rhine water levels dropped to multi-year lows in August and are now comparable to 2H18 levels, when Germany-exposed chemicals saw material operational/logistics headwinds (see our previous report here). It remains to be seen whether low water levels will persist for as long as they did in 2H18; if they do, this would represent an additional downside risk to 2H26 expectations, albeit likely smaller given post-2018 mitigation. As illustrated in Figure 1Rhine watrlve Kaubmsring potand Figure 2Probailty-weghd 14-ayforecst forRhine watrlve Kaubsof 31July, at the Kaub gauge, Rhine levels have fallen to multi-year lows and are now similar to Oct–Nov 2018, when disruptions to barge logistics and wider supply chains hit German/European chemicals; the two most impacted names then were BASF and K+S. Evonik and to a lesser extent Brenntag had also flagged earnings headwinds in 2H18.
BASF saw the most adverse impact of ~€250m in 3Q-4Q18 (~2.5% of 2018 adj EBITDA) due to its reliance on the Rhine for transportation infrastructure and plant cooling. Since then, BASF has implemented a number of mitigation measures, including diversifying its logistics network to be able to switch to alternative transport modes (e.g. rail), if needed, as well as expanding its fleet to include vessels that can still operate in the Rhine at low water levels. On the last week’s 2Q26 conference call, BASF’s CEO commented that thanks to the mitigation measures, this time the company does not expect to see a negative impact of the magnitude seen in 2H26.
K+S relied on the Rhine for saline water disposal, which became impossible due to reduced water levels; as a result, K+S had to halt production at parts of its largest site in Germany, Werra, for almost two months. This translated into a ~€95m adverse impact (~15% of 2018 EBITDA). Since 2018, K+S has invested in improving the resiliency and sustainability of its wastewater disposal at the Werra site, including as part of the ongoing Werra 2060 project capex, which should help to more than halve the amount of process water for the Werra site. In its 2025 annual report, K+S commented that through the system of wastewater storage basins at the company’s disposal, as well as other measures, it had “significantly increased the flexibility of wastewater management at the Werra plant in recent years, to fully maintain production at the Werra plant even in a hydrologically dry year”. The company also noted, however, that in the case of an extreme drought comparable to that seen in the summer of 2022 and lasting over a long period of time, resulting in low levels in the Werra river, there could still be a risk of a temporary production interruption. Hence, subject to the duration of dry conditions, the impact on production at K+S cannot be ruled out, although we would expect it to be much reduced compared to the 2018 situation reflecting the improved wastewater management infrastructure.
Rhine Level At Kaub
Kaub Level Forecast
Barclays analyst Katie Richards recently told clients to have Rhine water levels “on their radars.”
Here’s more from Richards:
Our view: Investors should have the Rhine on their radar. Rhine-exposed chemical stocks historically underperformed during the 2018 and 2022 low-water episodes. What makes 2026 noteworthy is that the Rhine is entering the summer from an unusually weak position, with water levels already near multi-year lows for this point in the year and further risk from El Niño. However, unlike 2018, producers have invested heavily in mitigation measures, and these appeared to have proven effective during the 2022 drought when disruption was limited despite challenging conditions. As a result, we see the risk today as more skewed towards higher logistics costs and supply-chain inefficiencies than a repeat of the severe operational disruption experienced in 2018.Our concern would increase if Kaub water levels were to spend a prolonged period around 40cm or below, a level broadly consistent with or more severe than the 2022 drought, when financial impacts across the sector were largely negligible (versus ~100cm today).
The fallout of summer heat across the continent has spread beyond freight markets. Heat waves have forced France to curb output from its nuclear fleet because rising river temperatures could fuel wildfires.
In Hungary, the government has urged households and businesses to conserve electricity and water after demand overwhelmed supplies in Szentendre, leaving thousands without drinking water. Meanwhile, Italy’s Po River has fallen below historic lows.
END
5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/USA/IRAN/FRIDAY NIGHT
Trump Orders Heavy Attack On Energy-Related Targets In Iran, To Commence This Weekend
Friday, Jul 31, 2026 – 05:55 PM
Summary
- Trump orders major strikes on Iran, likely to start this weekend.
- US adds sanctions, Bessent says Tehran can’t pay troops, as Iran faces growing pressure.
- Most Americans say the Iran war isn’t worth fighting: AP poll.
- Iran claims drone strike on US base in Kuwait – after no new US strikes overnight.
- Oil rises as fears of wider conflict grow and lack of talks.
* * *
Trump Orders Major Weekend Strikes
The Wall Street Journal and CBS are reporting that major US strikes – perhaps harder than anything of the last two weeks – are set to imminently commence. The attacks could be initiated at any point this weekend, after Trump gave the ‘order’ – it’s being reported:
President Trump has ordered a fresh attack on Iran aimed at getting Tehran to surrender that could begin as soon as this weekend and would last a few days, U.S. officials said.
Earlier on Friday, he told reporters that he planned to resume heavy military strikes to force the regime to come to the negotiating table. He predicted that if the U.S. hit Iran hard enough, the hard-line regime would eventually “peter out.”
Trump made clear earlier at Camp David that the Iranians can’t be trusted, are ‘dishonorable’ – and so he’s not pursuing talks.
The late afternoon Friday CBS report is more alarming, given that “The United States and Israel are planning what would be one of the harshest bombing campaigns to date against energy infrastructure targets in Iran, multiple sources told CBS News, with strikes possible throughout the weekend.”
It adds, “There was some discussion about trying to conclude by the time financial markets open Monday because of concern about how the bombings will affect the U.S. and global economy, but an end point wasn’t locked in.”
Earlier this week there were reports of Trump exploding at his own advisors amid ongoing debates about how the crisis should be handled, and finding an exit strategy.
“Well, they always want to talk, but they break their words so often,” Trump said Friday at Camp David, putting his frustration on display later adding: “All they do is make me angry.”
A key line from WSJ point to where things are likely headed: “Some U.S. officials believe Iran will continue to drag out negotiations, banking that Trump will abandon his war efforts in the long term in the face of mounting domestic political opposition.”
Keep Hitting Them: Trump
Trump is holding a Cabinet meeting on Friday at Camp David. He claimed that the fight against Iran is “going well” and stated that American forces are “hitting them very hard” – adding that “eventually” Iran will have no choice but to “come home” – meaning full surrender.
“It’s going well. Everything we can do is keep winning,” Trump also told Fox News. “But we are hitting them hard, shaking them up, and we’re just continuing to win.” He suggested there will still be strikes ongoing in coming weeks, and that he’s losing faith in the idea of talks with “dishonest” Iran “because they lie”.
Additionally, Trump’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is claiming that Iran is unable to pay its troops – though without offering specific evidence to back this, and that the US continues searching for Iranian assets to seize “all around the world”. This is after Thursday Washington rolled out yet more sanctions.
In the meantime, the American public continues souring on the Iran war, which has predictably turned into yet another quagmire in the Middle East. Per a new Associated Press poll:
Most Americans say the war in Iran has not been worth fighting, and President Donald Trump’s approval rating on Iran has fallen slightly since last month, according to a new AP-NORC poll.
The results are a stark repudiation of the Republican president’s approach to the conflict, which has dragged on far longer than he originally predicted.
About two-thirds of U.S. adults say the war with Iran, which began Feb. 28, has not been worthwhile, according to the new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That includes the vast majority of Democrats and independents, as well as about 37% of Republicans.
Iran Boasts it Hit Kuwait Base
“We note with concern that the security situation remains precarious,” said Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tahir Andrabi on his country’s mediation efforts to find peace between the US and Iran. Talks “are ongoing to normalize the situation, particularly the situation in the Strait of Hormuz,” he told reporters as a week full of renewed fighting as come to a close. But there essentially are no current talks, and US officials have indicated they are not even seeking them.
Early Thursday had seen the last major exchanges of tit-for-tat attacks, followed by a window of relative quiet into Friday – but the Iranian military has said it newly targeted strategic US military facilities at Kuwait’s Ahmad Al-Jaber airbase in a drone attack. This was cast as ‘retaliation’ for US attacks of the day prior which focused on Qeshm island. Several Iranian troops had been killed in the prior assault, and separately a family was slain when their home was reportedly hit.
Semiofficial Tasnim news agency said the armed forces had targeted hangars, satellite communication systems and equipment warehouses using drones – based on the military statement.
No New US Strikes Overnight
“Iranian state media reported the strike on Ahmed Al Jaber Air Base early Friday, but Kuwaiti officials and the Pentagon have yet to comment,” Newsnation summarizes, adding of the current standstill in fighting, “Notably, Iranian media did not report any American strikes hitting targets inside Iran overnight, a change from Wednesday, when the U.S. carried out what officials called a heavy wave of strikes against Iranian positions.”
The day prior saw the Iranians heavily target an American outpost in Jordan. Iran believes the US is amassing equipment there in preparation for further rounds of attacks. As for the Friday targeting of Kuwait: “Iran cited a U.S. strike that killed a mother, father and their 2-year-old child in a home on Qeshm Island as part of its justification for the reported Kuwait attack.”
‘Horizontal Escalation’
On the question of where the crisis goes from here, a Tehran-based researcher at the Center for Strategic Studies, Ali Akbar Dareini, gave Al Jazeera some interesting insight into Tehran’s likely thinking:
He said Iran is likely trying to preempt any future attacks by the US in its current targeting in the region. Iran does not want to “allow the US to decide when to start the war, when to pause temporarily and when to restart the war”, he added. “Iran is now targeting the staging grounds of future operations.”
Dareini explained that while Washington has been pursuing “vertical escalation” by ramping up military attacks against Iran, Tehran has sought “horizontal escalation” by expanding the conflict’s “geographical scope”.
“Iran wants a complete, permanent end to war, or it’s going to be a wide-scale regional war,” he said.
As for the latest on potential US-Israeli plans to escalate against the Islamic Republic…
In the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) has claimed its forces struck a pair of tankers attempting to pass though the narrow waterway under the “air escort” of the US military.
The IRGC asserted that the “non-compliant oil tankers… were struck and brought to a halt, while four other oil tankers quickly changed course and returned to their previous positions.” Meanwhile, two headlines that don’t line up:
- US President Trump says the Iran war is going well; US is hitting Iran hard and “we just keep winning” (Fox)
- The Persian Gulf Waterway Management Authority announces that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not possible due to the continued aggressive actions of the US
Oil Climbs with No Offramp on Horizon
Still, despite of a lack of intense tit-for-tat so far on Friday, oil is rebounding significantly as there are no signs of offramp and the two sides aren’t talking – but instead preparing for more rounds in the fight…
But this Friday’s somewhat ‘quiet’ state of things could likely dramatically shift at any moment, as has been the pattern this summer. The aforementioned Tehran-based analyst Dareini describes a serious change and overhaul in Iranian leaders’ strategic thinking, which has gone from defensive to proactive, with an understanding of the need to inflict pain on the US side in a preemptive way.
“Iranians are tired from suffering from limited US attacks,” Dareini said, charging that the US uses its declared pauses as a “deception tactic” merely in preparation for future attacks and operations.
“There has been a profound change in Iran’s strategic thinking,” he added. “The era of restraint is over. Iran has decided that, if needed, it has to take preemptive military action against the US.”
END
ISRAEL/USA IRAN/ FRIDAY NIGHT
US Withdraws Troops, Patriot Batteries From Northern Iraq Amid Iranian Attacks
Friday, Jul 31, 2026 – 08:30 PM
There are new reports Friday of more US troop pullback initiatives in the wake of the last couple weeks of US-Iran fighting, and Iranian ballistic missile and drone strikes which have targeted American bases with increased regularity, especially in Jordan and Kuwait.
One regional media publication freshly reports, “The United States military has started to draw down its last remaining forces from Iraq stationed in the vicinity of Erbil’s airport in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, well-placed sources with close knowledge of the process confirmed to Al-Monitor.”
Significant US anti-air defenses are also being pulled back, given they and their radar systems have increasingly been targeted.
“Patriot mobile air-to-surface air-defense systems that detect and shoot down incoming missiles, drones and other airborne enemy equipment have already been removed from the military compound, the sources said, without providing further details,” Al Monitor continues.
The pullback from the Iraqi Kurdistan region reportedly began last week and is still in progress, given all the heavy equipment has to be pulled out.
The missile batteries are expected to be ‘redeployed’ – but this could be further away from within the vicinity of Iran and the Persian Gulf, such as in Israel. Al Monitor notes:
Regional officials described the pullout as routine and in line with the US commitment to withdraw all its forces from Iraq by a Sept. 30 deadline that was agreed with Baghdad.
However, coming amid sustained attacks by Iran and its Shiite proxy militias, and on the Kurdistan Region of Iraq in particular, the withdrawal has left the Kurds feeling badly exposed.
It’s not just Iran which has targeted US personnel and assets in Iraq, but Iraqi Shia paramilitary units have at times targeted Erbil facilities going back years:
While the Patriot systems were deployed to protect US forces, the Kurds have benefited immensely from the security umbrella as well. Erbil’s airport has come under constant attack from Iran and Iran-backed militias since the start of the Iran conflict in February, including this week. US interceptors successfully deterred at least 95% of those attacks, the sources said.
The bulk of Iranian and militia attacks have targeted armed Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in the Kurdistan Region. However, the Erbil compound has also been targeted multiple times. The Patriots have an operational range of between 60 to 100 miles (100-160 kilometers).
Iran’s strategy seems to focused on permanently pushing US forces back in the region, while expanding the scope of the war, in what some analysts have called ‘horizontal escalation’.
One writer calls this a process of ‘debasification‘:
In contrast to the previous hot phase of the war, in which Iran targeted bases across the entire theater simultaneously, this wave started with the targets close to Iranian shores, and has progressed steadily to the Israeli border. After destroying much of the radar network protecting regional US Axis bases in the previous hot phase of the war, Iranian planners have prioritized targeting fuel storage, drone hangers, refueling tankers, and barracks. The American response has been to pull assets back ever further from Iran, to bases in Israel and Jordan. We’ll call this process debasification. Iran’s debasification strategy takes advantage of the inherent asymmetry between the vastly different force structure and capabilities of Iranian rocket forces and US Axis air forces.
Iraq’s north has long been a place where US forces can feal more at ease with ‘friendly’ Kurdish groups, rather than the dwindling presence in the rest of the country. But the Kurds have also come under immense pressure within the Iraq war, especially given headlines alleging they were ready to support an Iranian Kurdish uprising inside the Islamic Republic.
END
ROBERT H…
U.S. embassies across 10 Middle East countries: Oman, Iraq, UAE, Qatar, Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, issued fresh alerts today urging Americans to leave.
In the new region-wide warning, the State Department is warning Americans in the Middle East to be prepared for “escalation” in the Iran conflict, and “should be prepared for flight cancellations, periodic airspace closures, and potential travel disruptions.” Iran has threatened back they will destroy all oil supply in the region is theirs is hit. If that happens we will see a global depression with a few months.
Apparently Trump is going on a 2 week bombing campaign to get favorable terms from Iran. The real question is what happens if he fails?
China has already told the US they will intervene.
My guess is China is not kidding.
Time will tell.
end
SATURDAY AFTERNOON;
Israel raises alert, estimates Trump close to order new attacks on Iran, officials tell ‘Post’
Israeli officials warn renewed US strikes on Iran could trigger attacks on Israel, as embassies urge citizens to consider leaving amid rising tensions.
A screengrab from a video released by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), which accompanied a press release describing the operation dubbed “Epic Fury”, an attack by the United States and Israel on Iran, shows a flight deck crew member signaling an F‑35 jet on an aircraft carrier(photo credit: US CENTCOM/Reuters)ByAMICHAI STEIN, JERUSALEM POST STAFFAUGUST 1, 2026 21:11Updated: AUGUST 1, 2026 23:00
Israel has raised the alert and readiness amid assessments that US President Donald Trump is close to deciding to resume military strikes against Iran, potentially on an even larger scale, two Israeli sources told The Jerusalem Post.
Israeli officials told the Post that “we are on high alert and awaiting the president’s final decision.”
While it remains unclear whether Trump would seek to involve Israel in the initial phase of such an operation, Israel’s working assumption is that any major strike on Iran, even one carried out without direct Israeli participation, would likely draw Israel into the conflict.
Israel not asked to join attacks on Iran, officials say
Meanwhile, an Israeli official told CBS that “Israel is not aware of a decision to fully resume military activity, and has not been asked to join any military action against Iran.”
During the day, the US Embassy also updated its travel advisory, recommending that US citizens in Israel consider leaving due to rising tensions or be prepared to depart if an escalation occurs.
US embassies in Jordan, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq issued similar warnings.
Additionally, earlier on Saturday, The Washington Post reported that US European Command chief Gen. Alexus Grynkewich privately warned the Pentagon this week that he did not have enough naval forces available to continue defending Israel against Iranian ballistic missiles.
According to the report, which cited US officials, Grynkewich sent a written message to senior Pentagon officials warning that unless he received an additional US Navy destroyer, he would have to prioritize defending the US homeland over continuing to protect Israel from missile attacks.
The US Navy is under particularly heavy strain after the Trump administration ordered a blockade of Iranian ports in response to Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to the report.
The confrontation disrupted the movement of Middle Eastern oil and other goods through the strait and shook the global economy.
The report also noted that US Navy destroyers stationed in the eastern Mediterranean have served for years as part of Israel’s defensive network. The vessels, equipped with advanced radar systems and a range of missiles, have intercepted missiles launched toward Israel from both Iran and the Houthis.
Amit Avitan contributed to this report.
ENF
SUNDAY
Trump Says “Perimeters Of A Deal Reached” With Iran To Reopen Hormuz After Call With Saudi Crown Prince
Sunday, Aug 02, 2026 – 09:55 AM
The past few days have been tense. Although no US strikes were launched from Friday night into Saturday morning and the Gulf region remained quiet early Sunday, anticipation surrounding President Trump’s next move is keeping energy traders and Gulf governments on edge. The big concern is that another round of strikes could trigger a wider regional conflict, particularly as the Iranian-backed Houthis have reactivated offensive operations in the southern Red Sea in recent weeks.
The Trump administration and Department of War may pursue de-escalation from here after Trump wrote on Truth Social late Saturday night: “We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.”
“Tonight from 9:36 PM to 9:37 PM the S&P 500 price on Hyperliquid spiked bigly, and I couldn’t figure out why… …then Trump posted his TACO @ 10:05 PM. THEN I understood why,” X user Stanphyl Capital wrote.
That de-esclation pathway was followed by a new signal early Sudnay from Saudi Press Agency, Saudi Arabia’s official state news agency, stating that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held a call with President Trump, discussing the “necessity of prioritizing dialogue to de-escalate tensions and the importance of exerting all possible efforts to achieve a truce that paves the way for diplomatic solutions that yield positive results for preserving the security and stability of the region and prevent it from being drawn into a wider conflict whose repercussions would affect regional and international security and stability.”
The MbS-Trump call was first reported by Axios, which got the scoop on Saturday evening:
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke to President Trump on Saturday and expressed concern over his plans for massive new strikes against Iran, according to two U.S. officials and a third source with knowledge of the call.
. . .
Such an attack could lead to an unprecedented escalation in the five-month war, which has repeatedly paused as Trump opened the door to negotiations — only to resume when those diplomatic efforts failed.
Iran has threatened to retaliate by launching attacks against energy and infrastructure facilities in Israel and the Gulf countries
- The Saudis expressed concern and asked for clarity about the plan of action,” one U.S. official told Axios.
- A second source with knowledge of the call said MBS urged Trump to de-escalate and refrain from launching the strikes.
Why the MBS-Trump conversation matters is that Saudi Arabia remains one of Washington’s top Gulf region allies. Riyadh has heavily influenced Trump’s Iran policy at previous inflection points and appears to have exerted similar influence in delaying or narrowing the next phase of US military action.
END
MONDAY
Iran Denies Negotiations With US After Trump Announces Talks For Monday Afternoon
Monday, Aug 03, 2026 – 08:30 AM
President Trump now says new talks with Iran will begin Monday afternoon after he called off a planned “massive attack” – following high level Saudi intervention, and also likely White House advisors and Pentagon leadership failing to agree on a strategic vision.
“The Saudis expressed concern and asked for clarity about the plan of action,” one US official told Axios over the weekend, with another saying that crown prince Mohammed bin Salman urged Trump to de-escalate and refrain from launching the strikes. Trump aknowledged all of this to reporters aboard Air Force One while returning from Bedminster, New Jersey, to Joint Base Andrews. He claimed the canceled attack would have been “the biggest attack since World War II” and could have been “disastrous” for Iran.
“I was asked to by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, by Qatar, and by Iran to hold off strikes,” Trump said. “It would have been a massive attack.” He added: “When the allies asked to call it off, you gotta say, Well, let’s see.”
“I asked the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, ‘What would you rather have us do?'” Trump said. “He said, ‘We would prefer a deal rather than an attack.'” And more: “Allies think there is a deal,” Trump explained. “There is a deal on Hormuz, and it will be a deal on the nuclear.”
Iranian officials said there are currently no negotiations with the United States and that Tehran is not planning to send or host any delegations “these days.”
However, Iran has confirmed that it is deep into negotiations over managing the Strait of Hormuz with Oman, and that it desires to get more ships moving through the vital transit waterway. According to Bloomberg on Monday:
Iran suggested negotiations to get more ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz are making progress, after President Donald Trump called off what he said was a major attack on the Islamic Republic.
Oil fell on Monday, with Brent crude down about 4.5% to just over $83 a barrel, after Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said discussions between Tehran and Oman over management of the strait are in the final stages.
While Tehran officials acknowledged that negotiations with Oman are ongoing and that progress has been made toward securing a temporary passage through the Strait of Hormuz, they stressed that reaching an agreement with Oman alone would not be enough to reopen the waterway, warning that the situation will remain unchanged as long as US “aggression” continues.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei conveyed also that China is concerned about “the escalation of conflict and insecurity in the region” and is working to prevent the situation from worsening. He described that there is no new mediator involved in contacts with Washington, with Pakistan and Qatar continuing to carry out that role.
On the broader conflict, Baghaei argued that the US-Israeli war on Iran is not merely a war against one country, but “a war against the entire region.” He laid out that Iran once again rejected attempts to tie developments in Yemen to the conflict with Iran, calling such claims “a form of evasion of responsibility.”
“We currently do not have negotiations with America,” and Iran had no plans to host foreign delegations or send negotiators abroad in the coming days, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told reporters.
Meanwhile, the on-again, off-again style of escalation and de-escalation pattern we are witnessing is likely only helping Tehran’s side in terms of leverage, as the conflict grinds on and potentially becomes more politically costly for the White House.
Referring to the Iranians, Reuters writes in new analysis, “They see an opportunity in what they regard as President Donald Trump’s reluctance to become deeply entangled in another Middle East conflict ahead of November’s midterm elections.”
“The Iranians…believe that by widening the war and increasing the pressure, he will eventually give in,” a Gulf source is cited in the report as saying. “Trump thinks he can hit the Iranians hard and bring them to the negotiating table, but they won’t bend.” That much should be obvious by now, as Trump Tacos once again.
According to more from Reuters: “Iran is betting it can outlast Washington by turning the Middle East’s trade routes, shipping lanes and energy infrastructure into pressure points that steadily raise the cost of confrontation, according to Gulf officials and analysts.”
Who can outlast? This is currently month #6 of the war…
“Rather than seeking a decisive military victory, Tehran is pursuing a strategy of calibrated escalation aimed at widening the conflict without triggering full-scale war,” the report continues. But that much should have been obvious and anticipated from week one of the war, and clearly the US side underestimated things.
More Latest Developments
via Newsquawk
- US President Trump said the US is locked and loaded and ready to go against Iran, but they “have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal have been agreed to. This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat. Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.”
- In further comments, US President Trump said the Iran attack would have been a massive one if not paused, adding there’s a deal on Hormuz and there will be a deal on denuclearisation. He added that he was asked very strongly by Iran to hold off the attack. On negotiations, he said they will begin tomorrow afternoon.
- US CENTCOM was reported on Friday to have prepared a large-scale operation in the form of a decisive two-week bombing campaign should President Trump choose escalation to break the deadlock in the Middle East, according to The Hill reports, citing sources.
- US Central Command intelligence official wrote in an email that they are seeking new and unconventional ways to increase pressure on and punish Iran, according to an internal message circulated among military analysts, according to CNN
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said negotiations with Oman are progressing, with the two sides holding constructive talks on a new framework and exchanging maps over the past seven to eight days for review, IRNA reported.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said Iran is working with Oman to establish a temporary security corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Tehran is not currently in dialogue with the US and is holding talks with Oman on the waterway. Baghaei added that issues with the US should be addressed at a later stage and that there are no plans to receive a US delegation or send an Iranian delegation in the coming days.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi told a cabinet meeting on Sunday that the negotiations with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz “were in the final stages”, according to FT. It was separately reported that Araghchi held phone calls with Saudi, Pakistan and Iraqi counterparts and exchanged views on the latest developments in the region, while he warned on Saturday against any adventurous action by the US and stressed Iran’s readiness to respond decisively to any aggression.
- Iranian lawmaker Qashqawi said there are no discussions with the US or talks on the nuclear issue, adding that US sanctions amount to war; lasting peace can only be pursued once the military, economic and media conflict ends, SNN reported.
- Iran’s Mehr News Agency rejected US President Trump’s claim that he halted attacks at the request of Iran and Middle East countries, while it called it “a new lie” and emphasised that Iran’s forces are on full alert.
- UKMTO said on Saturday it received a report of an incident 21 nautical miles northeast of Oman’s Khasab, where the master of the tanker saw a large splash and explosion in close proximity to the vessel, although no damage to the vessel was reported.
- Israel told the White House it has significant security concerns over a proposed Hamas disarmament agreement, saying intelligence suggests Hamas intends to rebuild its military capabilities rather than genuinely disarm. Israel added that it will not withdraw from most of Gaza until Hamas has fully completed the disarmament process.
- Palestinian civil defence said Israeli drone and airstrikes hit multiple locations across the Gaza Strip, killing at least 18 people, including two women and four children, with residential apartments, tents sheltering displaced people and civilian areas among the reported targets.
- Kpler shipping data showed 18 vessels passed through the Bab al-Mandeb on Sunday, compared to the 27 vessels on Saturday.
END
MONDAY
Trump Unloads On ‘Duplicitous’ Iran, Claims Secret Talks Despite Tehran’s Public Rejection
Monday, Aug 03, 2026 – 11:45 AM
Summary
- Trump claims Iran wants talks; Tehran again denies any US negotiations.
- Trump says Gulf allies halted planned US strikes in favor of diplomacy.
- Iran says Hormuz talks with Oman are progressing, but US actions remain the obstacle.
- Oil prices still falling on optimism over Hormuz negotiations & uptick in transit.
- Tehran is betting it can outlast Trump by raising the costs of confrontation.
* * *
Trump: Looking for Solution ‘Caused’ by Iran
President Trump on Monday issued a new Truth Social, perhaps trying to explain his latest weekend TACO move, accusing Iran’s leadership of being “unbelievably duplicitous,” claiming Tehran privately sought and sheduled talks while publicly insisting it is only dealing with Oman. He asserted that the Strait of Hormuz is already “completely controlled by the United States Navy” through what he called the “United States Wall of Steel,” adding that “nothing gets through to Iran” unless Washington allows it. Trump also insisted discussions toward a resolution are underway despite Iranian denials, while reiterating his bottom line: “IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!”
Trump is increasingly letting his frustration and ‘exasperation’ go public. This seems to only confirm that indeed there are no talks taking place at this point. The US president continues to insist that the whole crisis was “caused” by the Iranians “for decades” but that it is the US now looking for a “solution” – but Iran won’t play ball, after apparently ‘begging’ for talks…
We’re only 5 months in… one wonders what the narrative will be with the US still bogged down in Hormuz by November:
Trump Claimed Talks Set For Monday Afternoon, Tehran Balks
President Trump now says new talks with Iran will begin Monday afternoon after he called off a planned “massive attack” – following high level Saudi intervention, and also likely White House advisors and Pentagon leadership failing to agree on a strategic vision.
“The Saudis expressed concern and asked for clarity about the plan of action,” one US official told Axios over the weekend, with another saying that crown prince Mohammed bin Salman urged Trump to de-escalate and refrain from launching the strikes. Trump aknowledged all of this to reporters aboard Air Force One while returning from Bedminster, New Jersey, to Joint Base Andrews. He claimed the canceled attack would have been “the biggest attack since World War II” and could have been “disastrous” for Iran.
“I was asked to by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, by Qatar, and by Iran to hold off strikes,” Trump said. “It would have been a massive attack.” He added: “When the allies asked to call it off, you gotta say, Well, let’s see.”
“I asked the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, ‘What would you rather have us do?'” Trump said. “He said, ‘We would prefer a deal rather than an attack.'” And more: “Allies think there is a deal,” Trump explained. “There is a deal on Hormuz, and it will be a deal on the nuclear.”
Iran says No Negotiations Happening
Iranian officials said there are currently no negotiations with the United States and that Tehran is not planning to send or host any delegations “these days.”
However, Iran has confirmed that it is deep into negotiations over managing the Strait of Hormuz with Oman, and that it desires to get more ships moving through the vital transit waterway. According to Bloomberg on Monday:
Iran suggested negotiations to get more ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz are making progress, after President Donald Trump called off what he said was a major attack on the Islamic Republic.
Oil fell on Monday, with Brent crude down about 4.5% to just over $83 a barrel, after Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said discussions between Tehran and Oman over management of the strait are in the final stages.
While Tehran officials acknowledged that negotiations with Oman are ongoing and that progress has been made toward securing a temporary passage through the Strait of Hormuz, they stressed that reaching an agreement with Oman alone would not be enough to reopen the waterway, warning that the situation will remain unchanged as long as US “aggression” continues.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei conveyed also that China is concerned about “the escalation of conflict and insecurity in the region” and is working to prevent the situation from worsening. He described that there is no new mediator involved in contacts with Washington, with Pakistan and Qatar continuing to carry out that role.
On the broader conflict, Baghaei argued that the US-Israeli war on Iran is not merely a war against one country, but “a war against the entire region.” He laid out that Iran once again rejected attempts to tie developments in Yemen to the conflict with Iran, calling such claims “a form of evasion of responsibility.”
“We currently do not have negotiations with America,” and Iran had no plans to host foreign delegations or send negotiators abroad in the coming days, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told reporters.
Iranians ‘Won’t Bend’ – Reuters Analyst Points Out
Meanwhile, the on-again, off-again style of escalation and de-escalation pattern we are witnessing is likely only helping Tehran’s side in terms of leverage, as the conflict grinds on and potentially becomes more politically costly for the White House.
Referring to the Iranians, Reuters writes in new analysis, “They see an opportunity in what they regard as President Donald Trump’s reluctance to become deeply entangled in another Middle East conflict ahead of November’s midterm elections.”
“The Iranians…believe that by widening the war and increasing the pressure, he will eventually give in,” a Gulf source is cited in the report as saying. “Trump thinks he can hit the Iranians hard and bring them to the negotiating table, but they won’t bend.” That much should be obvious by now, as Trump Tacos once again.
According to more from Reuters: “Iran is betting it can outlast Washington by turning the Middle East’s trade routes, shipping lanes and energy infrastructure into pressure points that steadily raise the cost of confrontation, according to Gulf officials and analysts.”
Who can outlast? This is currently month #6 of the war…
“Rather than seeking a decisive military victory, Tehran is pursuing a strategy of calibrated escalation aimed at widening the conflict without triggering full-scale war,” the report continues. But that much should have been obvious and anticipated from week one of the war, and clearly the US side underestimated things.
More Latest Developments
via Newsquawk
- US President Trump said the US is locked and loaded and ready to go against Iran, but they “have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal have been agreed to. This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat. Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.”
- In further comments, US President Trump said the Iran attack would have been a massive one if not paused, adding there’s a deal on Hormuz and there will be a deal on denuclearisation. He added that he was asked very strongly by Iran to hold off the attack. On negotiations, he said they will begin tomorrow afternoon.
- US CENTCOM was reported on Friday to have prepared a large-scale operation in the form of a decisive two-week bombing campaign should President Trump choose escalation to break the deadlock in the Middle East, according to The Hill reports, citing sources.
- US Central Command intelligence official wrote in an email that they are seeking new and unconventional ways to increase pressure on and punish Iran, according to an internal message circulated among military analysts, according to CNN
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said negotiations with Oman are progressing, with the two sides holding constructive talks on a new framework and exchanging maps over the past seven to eight days for review, IRNA reported.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said Iran is working with Oman to establish a temporary security corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Tehran is not currently in dialogue with the US and is holding talks with Oman on the waterway. Baghaei added that issues with the US should be addressed at a later stage and that there are no plans to receive a US delegation or send an Iranian delegation in the coming days.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi told a cabinet meeting on Sunday that the negotiations with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz “were in the final stages”, according to FT. It was separately reported that Araghchi held phone calls with Saudi, Pakistan and Iraqi counterparts and exchanged views on the latest developments in the region, while he warned on Saturday against any adventurous action by the US and stressed Iran’s readiness to respond decisively to any aggression.
- Iranian lawmaker Qashqawi said there are no discussions with the US or talks on the nuclear issue, adding that US sanctions amount to war; lasting peace can only be pursued once the military, economic and media conflict ends, SNN reported.
- Iran’s Mehr News Agency rejected US President Trump’s claim that he halted attacks at the request of Iran and Middle East countries, while it called it “a new lie” and emphasised that Iran’s forces are on full alert.
- UKMTO said on Saturday it received a report of an incident 21 nautical miles northeast of Oman’s Khasab, where the master of the tanker saw a large splash and explosion in close proximity to the vessel, although no damage to the vessel was reported.
- Israel told the White House it has significant security concerns over a proposed Hamas disarmament agreement, saying intelligence suggests Hamas intends to rebuild its military capabilities rather than genuinely disarm. Israel added that it will not withdraw from most of Gaza until Hamas has fully completed the disarmament process.
- Palestinian civil defence said Israeli drone and airstrikes hit multiple locations across the Gaza Strip, killing at least 18 people, including two women and four children, with residential apartments, tents sheltering displaced people and civilian areas among the reported targets.
- Kpler shipping data showed 18 vessels passed through the Bab al-Mandeb on Sunday, compared to the 27 vessels on Saturday.
END
LATE MONDAY
Trump Blasts ‘Duplicitous’ Iran, Says ‘Last Chance To Sign A Good Document’
Monday, Aug 03, 2026 – 02:45 PM
Summary
- Trump claims Iran wants talks; Tehran again denies any US negotiations.
- Trump says Gulf allies halted planned US strikes in favor of diplomacy.
- Iran says Hormuz talks with Oman are progressing, but US actions remain the obstacle.
- Oil prices still falling on optimism over Hormuz negotiations & uptick in transit.
- Tehran is betting it can outlast Trump by raising the costs of confrontation.
* * *
Trump Speaks to Reporters, Addresses Iran (non)Talks
President Trump has told reporters in the Oval Office that the Iran conflict is “working out very well” and that this is Tehran’s “last chance to sign a good document”. On Hormuz, he said:
“It has to be [free], I am not going to let them charge. If anybody is going to charge, we will charge, we are the ones … with a total control,” he said. “We have a thing called a blockade … No, no, there is not going to be charging. We are not talking about charging at all. There won’t be charging.”
On engaging Iran in talks even while the Iranians themselves insist they will not participate in any new talks:
When we talk we say ‘we’re talking’, if we’re not talking, when you ask me, ‘no we’re not talking’, I’ll say it. But we are talking right now, we’re talking, and we’re talking at the request of Iran, backed by Saudi Arabia, backed by UAE, and backed by Qatar in particular, but others also, many countries called, many-the leaders of many, I’m friendly with a lot of them–This is a last chance, this is not something-if it doesn’t happen, this is a last chance for them to sign a… good document.
Curiously, Trump is again insisting that when Iran says talks are off, they are lying…
Trump: Looking for Solution ‘Caused’ by Iran
President Trump on Monday issued a new Truth Social, perhaps trying to explain his latest weekend TACO move, accusing Iran’s leadership of being “unbelievably duplicitous,” claiming Tehran privately sought and sheduled talks while publicly insisting it is only dealing with Oman. He asserted that the Strait of Hormuz is already “completely controlled by the United States Navy” through what he called the “United States Wall of Steel,” adding that “nothing gets through to Iran” unless Washington allows it. Trump also insisted discussions toward a resolution are underway despite Iranian denials, while reiterating his bottom line: “IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!”
U.S. officials say that no novel negotiations are scheduled with Iran despite Trump’s statements, maintaining that ongoing talks are limited to indirect discussions via mediators involving envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. – CBS
Trump is increasingly letting his frustration and ‘exasperation’ go public. This seems to only confirm that indeed there are no talks taking place at this point. The US president continues to insist that the whole crisis was “caused” by the Iranians “for decades” but that it is the US now looking for a “solution” – but Iran won’t play ball, after apparently ‘begging’ for talks…
ISRAEL TBN.
END
END
HAMAS/ISRAEL
We believe Hamas will not disarm,’ Israeli-backed militia figure in Gaza tells ‘Post’
Dismantling armed militias could discourage locals from working with Israel, says a Gaza resident. “People will think twice for fear of being abandoned.”
Palestinian Hamas terrorists stand guard on the day of the handover of hostages held in Gaza since the deadly October 7 2023 attack, as part of a ceasefire and a hostages-prisoners swap deal between Hamas and Israel, in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, February 22, 2025.(photo credit: REUTERS/Hatem Khaled)ByDANA BEN-SHIMONAUGUST 2, 2026 12:01
The disarmament plan announced by the Board of Peace and approved by Hamas “will not be implemented,” a Palestinian source in Gaza affiliated with Israeli-backed militias told The Jerusalem Post.
For Hamas, handing over its weapons would be a suicidal step. “If there are no weapons, there is no Hamas,” the source told the Post over the weekend.
According to him, those in Gaza who have suffered under Hamas oppression are waiting for a chance to take revenge, which is one reason why Hamas believes it must keep its weapons. “Families, clans, and even ordinary people who were targeted by Hamas are waiting to settle scores with the organization, no matter how long it takes,” he said.
“People who were tortured, abused, or whose relatives were killed by Hamas will never forgive and never forget. Today, they cannot fight Hamas because the organization is armed. But even if it takes five or 10 years, people will seek to hold Hamas members accountable,” he continued. “Hamas is aware of this threat, and that’s why they need their weapons to protect themselves and cannot afford to disarm.”
Ghazi Hamad, a member of Hamas’s Political Bureau, told Arab media outlets that the organization agreed to store weapons with the Palestinian technocratic committee, known as the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), the transitional body tasked with managing post-war Gaza under the mandate of US President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace.
Hamas agreement to deal is ’empty talk’
Hamad, who has been part of Hamas’s negotiating delegation in Cairo, said that the agreement is a comprehensive package, not limited to weapons, and stressed that Hamas will fulfill its obligations only if Israel meets its commitments, pointing to Israeli withdrawal. “The issue of collecting weapons is a Palestinian matter. Israel will have no role in it,” he stressed.
Hamad claimed that the agreed formula was intended to “save the people of Gaza from more destruction, war, and displacement.”
The agreement stipulates that heavy weapons, including manufacturing sites, tunnels, and warehouses, will be collected and stored by the NCAG. At the same time, individual arms will be regulated under Palestinian law and regulations.
The militia-affiliated Gaza source dismissed Hamas’s apparent acceptance of the deal as “empty talk”, arguing that the terror group is simply trying to buy time and ensure its own survival. “The agreement is meaningless; it will not happen,” he claimed. “They have almost no heavy weapons left.”
“Hamas cares only about Hamas,” he continued. They will not comply with the demand for full disarmament because they want to stay in power. For Hamas, not having weapons means risking its existence. They know that the moment they lose their grip, they will not be able to return to power,” he added.
However, some Palestinians expressed cautious optimism, suggesting the agreement may be a good sign that could move post-war Gaza arrangements in the right direction and help break the current stalemate.
“Hamas realizes now that there is no hope for it to remain in power in Gaza,” one Palestinian resident from Gaza City told the Post.
“At least at this stage, I think Hamas is serious about storing the weapons,” he said.
“But it will not be easy for Hamas to relinquish its ideology and it may eventually try to regain control,” he added. “This depends on to what extent the other partners, the technocratic committee, and the players entering Gaza can restrain Hamas and prevent it from reclaiming authority.”
Disarming Israeli-backed militias in Gaza sends ‘troubling messages’
A key demand from Hamas, stipulated in article 10 of the plan, calls for the dissolution of armed groups in Gaza, referring to Israeli-backed militias set up in the strip to combat the terror organization.
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“Weapons of the militias shall be decommissioned and stored under NCAG authority according to an agreed-upon timetable. Members of those militias shall not be integrated in the security and police services,” the agreement read.
“We came to fight Hamas,” the Gaza militia-affiliated figure said. “Our problem is with Hamas, not with anyone else. If it truly gives up its weapons, stops ruling Gaza, and there is real change, then maybe we can be part of the arrangements of the new deal. But as long as Hamas remains, even with only rifles, we will continue to fight it. What matters is what happens on the ground,” he asserted.
The Gaza resident argued that dissolving the Israeli-backed militias, as required by the agreement, sends a troubling message to anyone considering future cooperation with Israeli security agencies.
“If these groups are disbanded now, it will be difficult for the Israelis to find people willing to work with them,” he claimed, in comments to the Post. “Those who worked with Israel or supported it would now be exposed to reprisals by Hamas because they are seen as traitors. Also, in the eyes of the people, they are unwelcome.”
From the very beginning, he said, these armed groups have had no respect among the Palestinian public. “People in Gaza do not see them as legitimate, and they lack popular support. So, in the end, both sides will turn their backs on them, and that could also damage Israel’s ability to recruit people; they will think twice before taking that risk for fear of being abandoned,” the resident said.
The militia source, however, rejected that claim. “Israel will never abandon us. It will continue to support us,” he said, pointing to Israel’s past support for members of the South Lebanon Army as proof. “We believe Israel will protect us; our safety is guaranteed,” he said.
END
SAUDI ARABIA/USA//KORYBKO
Saudi Arabia Has Five Points Of Leverage Over The US
Monday, Aug 03, 2026 – 02:00 AM
It probably won’t ever muster up the political will to use them, however, but the possibility always remains.
Trump recently surprised the Saudis by demanding that they recognize Israel as the precondition for the US implementing their newly signed nuclear energy deal, which wasn’t part of the agreement. This follows him humiliating Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman earlier in the spring by claiming that he’d been “kissing my ass” for rejuvenating the US economy. His mistreatment of the Kingdom and its de facto leader is unexpected since the US relies on them in the following five ways:
1. Indirectly Projecting US Influence Across The Ummah
Saudi Arabia wields tremendous influence across the international Muslim community, or Ummah, due to its role as the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques. It’s also been a rock-solid American ally since the end of World War II. By almost always aligning with the US’ foreign policy goals, Saudi Arabia indirectly projects its influence across the Ummah, in some cases even more effectively than the US itself since it’s a fellow Muslim country that many Muslim governments and societies alike look to for guidance.
2. Investing Hundreds Of Billions Of Dollars Into The US
Saudi Arabia is globally known for its wealth, which it once again reminded everyone of when it pledged to invest a whopping $600 billion into the US during Trump’s trip to the Kingdom in May 2025. Few countries are capable of doing that. Even more importantly, the previously hyperlinked readout from the White House notes that at least $100 billion will go into the American tech industry, thus helping it to compete with China. The strategic significance of such Saudi investments into the US can’t be overstated.
3. Purchasing Billions Of Dollars Of American Arms
Building upon the above, nearly $142 billion of the $600 billion that Saudi Arabia agreed to invest into the US will go to the military-industrial complex, which is an astronomical amount. To put Saudi Arabia’s purchase of American arms into perspective, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s latest report noted that Saudi Arabia was the US’ largest client and the third-largest importer in the world from 2021-2025. This immensely benefits the American military-industrial complex.
4. Serving As The Core Of The “Islamic NATO”
One of this year’s trends that began to materialize late last year is the gradual formation of what’s been called the “Islamic NATO”, which is comprised of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkiye. They’re all either NATO members like Turkiye or “Major Non-NATO Allies” like the rest. Whether the “Islamic NATO” is ever formalized or just remains a consultative platform, it’s still expected to serve as the means of advancing American military-security interests across the Ummah as the US “Leads From Behind”.
5. Preventing The Rise Of The “Petroyuan”
One of the pillars of American hegemony is the petrodollar, which Saudi Arabia helped the US institutionalize, and its continued participation in this system prevents the rise of the hypothetical “petroyuan” that many members of the Alt-Media Community have speculated about for years. So long as Saudi Arabia remains committed to the petrodollar, the “petroyuan” will remain a thought exercise, thus indefinitely preserving what’s arguably one of the most important pillars of American hegemony.
These five ways in which the US relies on Saudi Arabia provide the Kingdom with leverage if it ever musters up the political will to wield these advantages. For example, it could stop indirectly projecting US influence across the Ummah, radically reduce its investments in the US economy and its purchase of US arms, refuse to allow the “Islamic NATO” to become the US’ proxy, and/or replace the petrodollar with the “petroyuan”. It probably won’t do any of this, however, but the possibility always remains.
END
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Russia Confirms It Has Attacked Over 80 Vessels In The Black Sea In July Alone
Saturday, Aug 01, 2026 – 05:30 PM
We’ve been detailing the escalating ‘southern front’ war in the Black and Caspian Seas, as Russia and Ukraine take aim at each other’s maritime and energy and cargo transit and trade.
Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, such as at Odessa, had by and large not been focus of large-scale Russian strikes in the opening years of the war, but it seems this is fast changing.
Also, the cargo going in and out of places like Odessa is increasingly coming under fire, as Ukraine’s navy has been in turn targeting Russian vessels in the region, especially in the Sea of Azov.
On Saturday Russia’s defense ministry issued some new figures which confirm the greatly expanded scope of its maritime war on Ukrainian shipping.
Russian forces have hit more than 80 vessels believed involved in supplying the Ukrainian military in the month of July alone, state TASS writes based on official defense ministry data.
The report goes on to detail: “Among them were two dry cargo ships, a sea ferry transporting military cargo and a screening boat hit in overnight group strikes on July 12, according to the ministry.”
“On the same day, the ministry released footage that showed Geran-4 Seeker drones destroying a seiner converted to launch unmanned boats, a patrol boat, a ferry and a dry cargo ship,” the report adds.
“According to the ministry, Russian forces struck 24 seagoing vessels used by the Ukrainian military for supplies during the week of July 11-17, including 14 dry cargo ships and one tanker,” TASS continnues.
Moscow seeks to sever military supply routes and disrupt arms shipments bound for Ukraine, but this has also obviously resulted in damaged and sunken tankers, auxiliary vessels, and even deaths of civilian bystanders among international shipping crew.
Russia’s military has said that early last week it especially targeted key logistics hubs of Odessa, Chernomorsk, and Port of Mykolaiv (Nikolayev) – with the latter site seeing a docked cargo vessel receiving a direct strike.
Ukraine’s small but high-tech drone boats have gotten more advanced and difficult to defend against…
All of this comes after local authorities in Odessa had confirmed that a foreign-flagged cargo ship, which some reports have identified as the Guinea-Bissau-flagged Golden Leo, capsized and sank near the coast after taking heavy damage from a Russian attack in late July.
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
Is Anybody Ever Going To Say, “I’m Sorry”?
Sunday, Aug 02, 2026 – 07:50 PM
Authored by Mollie Engelhart via The Epoch Times,
This week, Dr. Anthony Fauci appeared before Congress and, on the advice of his attorney, repeatedly invoked the Fifth Amendment rather than answering many of the senators’ questions.
Everyone is talking about what he did or didn’t know, whether he misled Congress, whether he should have answered the questions, and whether he should be held accountable.
But that wasn’t the moment from this week that I can’t stop thinking about.
My husband called me as he was driving home from picking up grain for the hogs. He had stopped at Restaurant Depot to grab pizza boxes and a few supplies for the ranch. Rarely does he pay attention to American politics. Rarely is he interested in the stories that consume me.
He simply asked, “What’s going on with Fauci?”
I explained that he had spent much of the hearing invoking the Fifth Amendment rather than answering senators’ questions.
There was a long pause.
Then he asked me something that caught me completely off guard.
“Is anybody ever going to say, ‘I’m sorry. I was wrong. It cost you and your family everything?”
I had to choke back tears because no—nobody has ever said that to us.
My husband and I worked hard. We built businesses. We lived what most people would call the American dream. We weren’t looking for a bailout. We weren’t failing. In fact, when COVID-19 hit, we were just weeks away from selling our restaurant company under a $31 million contract.
Then came “two weeks to slow the spread.”
Two weeks became months. Months became years.
Government policies, not the virus itself, destroyed everything we had spent decades building.
This hearing didn’t make me feel any better. If anything, it ripped open wounds that had finally started to scar over.
Americans are still carrying losses that will never appear on a government balance sheet. They exist instead as tears in the fabric of lives that once felt secure. Businesses built over decades disappeared. Retirement accounts were drained. Marriages came under tremendous financial pressure. Ours was one of them. Homes were lost. Careers ended. Dreams were abandoned. Six years later, many of those wounds have not healed.
It would be easy to make this article about Fauci, but the truth is he is just one bureaucrat.
He may be the most recognizable face of the pandemic response and one of its highest-paid officials, but he was never acting alone. Governors issued orders. County health departments enforced them. School boards complied. Corporate executives complied. Church leaders complied. Republicans complied. Democrats complied.
And so did we, the people.
That may be the hardest part for me to admit. Yes, I am angry at Fauci, but, to be honest, I am just as angry at us.
When I say “us,” I don’t mean that I personally embraced those policies. I questioned them from the beginning.
I have never been vaccinated. That wasn’t a decision I made because of COVID-19. It was how I had lived my entire life. My mother raised me to question pharmaceuticals and to be cautious about trusting the government. That foundation shaped how I viewed the pandemic from the very beginning.
I don’t think that made me special. I think it made me less susceptible to what I believe was the greatest psychological operation of my lifetime.
But we, the people, largely complied.
We accepted the closure of our churches.
We accepted the destruction of small businesses.
We accepted keeping children out of school.
We accepted that bureaucrats knew better than families, business owners, pastors, physicians, and neighbors.
I believe we knew remarkably early that COVID-19 posed overwhelmingly different levels of risk depending on age and overall health. I believe we knew that respiratory viruses are ultimately resolved through herd immunity. We knew children and healthy adults were at extraordinarily low risk compared with the elderly and those with serious underlying health conditions.
Yet instead of allowing the conversation to evolve as the evidence accumulated, fear became the dominant force. Questioning the policies often became more unacceptable than questioning whether the policies were actually working.
This wasn’t simply one man’s failure.
It was a national failure.
Bureaucrats at every level implemented policies that devastated ordinary Americans. Republicans and Democrats alike largely fell in line. Many citizens did as well, whether out of fear, trust, social pressure, or the belief that someone else surely knew better.
Those of us who resisted often paid dearly. My family certainly did.
I thought that chapter of my life was over. I thought I had graduated from wondering how I was going to pay the bills. I had lived that life in my 20s and early 30s. I had spent decades working eighty-hour weeks to build something that finally gave my family financial stability.
Then pandemic policies tore it all down, forcing me to start over.
Today, at 48, I find myself greeting every customer who walks through the door, hoping they’ll come back and tell a friend. I write every day, hoping my words ripple outward and bring people who believe in what we’re building.
I am grateful to still have the opportunity to build.
But this is not where I imagined I would be after decades of working to finally get ahead.
A virus did not destroy everything I built.
Government policies did.
That doesn’t mean every decision was made with bad intentions.
It does mean that good intentions can still produce devastating consequences, and when those consequences permanently alter millions of lives, accountability matters. Humility matters. The willingness to simply say, “We were wrong,” matters.
This week, my husband asked me a question I still don’t know how to answer.
“Is anybody ever going to say, ‘I’m sorry. I was wrong. It cost you and your family everything?”
I don’t know if that day will ever come.
But I do know this.
This week, in that congressional hearing, was not that day.
END
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER\THE FAUCI DAMAGE:
Jon Bon Jovi stops mid-show (“I’m hurt”); David Lee Roth cancels shows; Jennifer Finch quits L7’s US tour; UK: Harry Styles abruptly cancels show; Simon Gallup quits The Cure’s tour in Germany
US: Panthers’ Taylor Moton misses start of season; UK: darts player Cameron Menzies has “medical emergency” on stage; broadcaster Lauren Lavergne steps down with “blood & bone marrow disorder”; more
| Mark Crispin MillerJul 31 |  |
Cancelations
UNITED STATES
Sammy Hagar buries decades-long feud with David Lee Roth after tour dates are axed Roth’s shows in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky and Illinois were scrapped with no reason announced
July 25, 2026
David Lee Roth’s summer comeback has hit an unexpected roadblock. Several of the former Van Halen frontman’s scheduled tour dates were abruptly canceled, prompting fans to wonder what caused the shake-up. As news of the cancellations spread, Sammy Hagar wasted no time reaching out publicly to his longtime Van Halen counterpart with an emotional message of support. Only Roth’s July dates have been scrapped. His five shows scheduled for August and September are still available for purchase through Ticketmaster, while his Aug. 7 performance in Sturgis, South Dakota, remains listed on his official website.
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
’80s Rocker, 64, Abruptly Ends Show After Telling Audience: ‘I’m Hurt’
July 25, 2026
Jon Bon Jovi, 64, stopped a concert in New York City on Thursday after struggling to get through his full set during his “Forever Tour.” The American singer was performing the eighth night of a nine-show residency at Madison Square Garden when he told fans, “I’m sorry, I’m hurt, and you’re not getting the best of me,” after singing his hit Livin’ on a Prayer, according to Page Six. The rock star later told fans that he would work on rescheduling the concert. “Don’t throw away your ticket stubs, I’m going to figure something out,” he told the crowd from the stage. “Just hold onto them, and we’ll work out a new date,” he added. A statement from Bon Jovi’s representatives later revealed that the singer had been battling a sinus infection, which forced the show to be halted 90 minutes into the performance. The tour marks Bon Jovi’s first return to the stage since undergoing vocal cord surgery in 2022.
Researcher’s note – Bon Jovi is “vaccinated”. A 2021 article about his positive COVID test states, “He is fully vaccinated [sic[. Ticket holders were required to show proof of vaccination [sic] or negative test results to get into the concert, the highlight of a three-day hotel package costing up to thousands of dollars a person”: https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/jon-bon-jovi-tested-positive-covid-canceled-miami-beach-concert/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Panthers tackle Taylor Moton to miss start of season after being diagnosed with blood clot in lung
July 21, 2026
CHARLOTTE, N.C. – Carolina Panthers right tackle Taylor Moton will miss the start of the regular season after being diagnosed last month with a blood clot in his lung. Moton was placed on blood thinners after his diagnosis and is being monitored by the team’s medical staff. He’s expected to return at some point during the regular season. The 31-year-old Moton has played in 145 games – 128 starts – since being selected in the second round by the Panthers in 2017.
Researcher’s note – N.F.L. Sets Stiff Penalties for the Unvaccinated [sic], Jolting Teams: https://13wham.com/news/coronavirus/nfl-loosening-many-covid-restrictions-for-vaccinated-players
L7 bassist Jennifer Finch diagnosed with aggressive brain cancer; GoFundMe launched
July 13, 2026
L7 bassist Jennifer Finch [59] has received a diagnosis of an aggressive form of brain cancer, prompting friends and family to launch a GoFundMe campaign to help cover mounting medical expenses. According to a statement shared by the band, Finch initially received a diagnosis that doctors believed could be treated with radiation. However, her condition progressed rapidly, leading to multiple surgeries, significant physical limitations and the need for ongoing rehabilitation and professional in-home care. As a result, Finch will be unable to join L7 for the U.S. leg of the band’s previously announced Last Hurrah Tour this fall.
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
Sir Clarence Edwards Cancels Carnival 2026 Performances Following Medical Emergency
July 16, 2026
Antiguan cultural icon Sir Clarence Leonard Emmanuel Edwards has announced the cancellation of all his scheduled performances and public appearances for Carnival 2026 after suffering what he described as a recent medical emergency that required immediate hospitalization and treatment. In an official statement released on Wednesday, Edwards said the difficult decision was made after consulting with his medical team, who have advised him to refrain from all performance-related activities for at least four to six weeks. Despite the setback, Edwards expressed optimism about making a full recovery and returning to the stage once doctors determine it is safe for him to do so. The statement did not disclose the nature of the medical emergency or provide additional details about his condition.
No age reported.
UNITED KINGDOM
Harry Styles cancels concert last minute due to mystery ‘health issue’ a month after collapsing on stage
July 21, 2026
For the time being, fans will dance no more. Harry Styles has canceled his Tuesday concert at Estadio Morumbis in São Paulo, Brazil, due to a “health issue,” just one month after he collapsed on stage in England. “We deeply regret to inform you that the Harry Styles show scheduled for Tuesday, July 21, 2026, at MorumBIS has been canceled due to a health issue on the tour,” Live Nation Brasil wrote on X hours before. The company added that tickets will be refunded. A rep for Styles said that “the Friday show is scheduled as planned” in Brazil. However, this hasn’t been Styles’ first bump in the road while on his Together, Together Tour, which kicked off in May. In June, the singer, 32, choked on water while performing his “whale” spit move at Wembley Stadium. The Grammy winner was seen in a social media video falling to the stage floor. Styles stayed down while he tried to catch his breath for several seconds. The artist appeared to tap his chest as well to to try and alleviate his discomfort. Styles then got up and waved to the audience as he ran off stage. Fans quickly flocked online to share their concern for the pop star. “Oh HELL no! He was struggling for REAL real,” one viewer penned on X, while a second chimed in, “Why didn’t any of his team notice that he was struggling with his tie? This is so bad.” Rounding on the messages, another social media user stated, “Must admit that on the livestream I was afraid for a few seconds.”
Researcher’s note – Styles announces fans must be fully vaccinated [sic] or show negative test to attend US tour: https://metro.co.uk/2021/08/26/harry-styles-announces-fans-must-be-fully-vaccinated-to-attend-us-tour-15158571/
Cameron Menzies issues update after harrowing medical emergency on stage during World Matchplay sees sudden withdrawal
July 23, 2026
Cameron Menzies gave everyone at home, in the arena, and on stage at the Winter Gardens quite a scare on Wednesday evening during his second-round match at the World Matchplay. After three legs, the Scot suddenly felt unwell and nearly collapsed on stage. With help from his opponent Ross Smith and one of the callers, he was guided off the stage for medical attention. ‘Cammy’ has since spoken out himself. The match was only three legs old when it all went wrong. Menzies was about to start the fourth leg when he stepped back several times before telling the referee he wasn’t feeling well. He then staggered off the stage, after which the match was understandably called off for good. It later emerged that the 37-year-old Scot had severe chest pain, was very dizzy, and is said to have fainted backstage. After a period of uncertainty, the PDC issued an official statement. Menzies later shared an update himself on social media. He said he was doing well and wanted to thank his fans.
’80s Rock Icon Forced Off Stage Mid-Tour by Health Scare as Son Fills In
July 13, 2026
Fans of the popular rock band The Cure who went to see them on tour in Berlin, Germany, might’ve noticed that they were one member short, as bassist Simon Gallup came down with an unexpected illness before the first of three shows in the city. The band’s frontman, Robert Smith, announced the unfortunate news on social media on July 11, after Gallup had already missed the first show. He wrote, “Shortly before the first of our three Berlin Wuhlheide concerts yesterday, Simon was taken ill.” Smith noted that Gallup’s son, Eden, stepped in to save the day and played the bass with the band. Ahead of the second show, Smith shared an update as well, saying, “Unfortunately Simon is still not well enough to play, so Eden will be filling the bass breach again tonight – We hope you will join us in wishing Simon the speediest of recoveries – And Eden thanks!” On July 12, before their third and final show in Berlin, Smith posted on Instagram that “Simon [was] still recovering,” so Eden stepped in for a third time. The Cure’s next set of concerts is in Athens, Greece, on July 14 and 15. As of writing, it’s unclear if Gallup will be recovered and able to play with the band at the shows.
No age reported.
Lauren Laverne reveals blood and bone marrow disorder diagnosis
July 17, 2026
Lauren Laverne has announced she has been diagnosed with a blood and bone marrow disorder, less than two years after recovering from cancer. The radio and TV presenter revealed she has smouldering myeloma, a condition characterised by an abnormal level of blood plasma cells in bone marrow, and said she made her diagnosis public out of a desire to help others. In August 2024, she announced she had been diagnosed with cancer, and received the all-clear three months later. Laverne, 48, wrote on Instagram on Friday: “I’m quite a private person by nature, but am sharing this as one of the many things I’ve learned after going through health challenges in recent years is that talking about this stuff helps people. I’ve been diagnosed with something called smouldering myeloma (yes that is a weird name and no I’d never heard of it either). It’s an asymptomatic blood and bone marrow disorder that in some people can develop into blood cancer. Thankfully the risk of this happening in my case is pretty low.” Laverne said she did not currently need treatment, adding the condition had “nothing to do” with her previous illness. The broadcaster said she would take a “couple weeks holiday” before returning to work. Laverne, who was the lead singer of the alternative rock band Kenickie in the 90s, has been a BBC Radio 6 Music presenter since 2008 and has hosted Radio 4’s Desert Island Discs since 2018. She has also co-presented The One Show since 2023.
AUSTRIA
Promising skier suffers two cardiac arrests and ends her career
July 21, 2026
“I wasn’t told until later that I had suffered two cardiac arrests and had been in a deep coma for four days,” Katharina Engelhardt says in an Instagram post showing her in a hospital bed. Due to myocarditis, the 18-year-old Austrian spent a week in the intensive care unit. Her life hung by a thread. “Even the excellent doctors in Linz thought I wouldn’t make it. But they were wrong, because I did make it,” Engelhardt writes, thanking the hospital staff, her family, and her friends for their tremendous support. In the wake of the incident, Engelhardt has decided to take action and end her promising career in cross-country skiing. “Unfortunately, competitive sports will no longer play a role in my life,” writes the 18-year-old skiing prodigy. In January, she had placed second in the sprint event at the Austrian Championships in Saalfelden.
END
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
China’s kung fu robots are a wake-up call for the West; The race to dominate physical AI is under way, and Beijing may already have the upper hand; China’s robot army has Trump running scared; US
bans advanced robotic imports as new front opens in the battle for AI supremacy…your opinion?
| Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 31 |  |
‘Unitree, China’s top robotics company, mesmerised the world earlier this year with its concert-hall display of humanoid robots doing martial arts.
As they flipped and kicked, a sci-fi future seemed suddenly present, wiping away the familiar old world of stumbling, fumbling mechanoids.
But Unitree has already moved on. In the company’s latest videos, a prototype robot is shown performing tasks that are easier than martial arts for humans, but far more difficult for robots.’
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS//ENERGY COMMENTARIES
Crude Inventories Have Fallen To “Precariously Low” Levels
Saturday, Aug 01, 2026 – 08:45 AM
U.S. crude inventories fell sharply last week as refineries ramped up production to capitalize on higher fuel prices following renewed conflict with Iran, according to Financial Times.
Commercial crude stockpiles declined by 7.2 million barrels, while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) dropped another 3.8 million barrels. Refineries operated at 97% of capacity nationwide, with some Midwest facilities running at full capacity as exports to Asia and Europe increased.
FT writes that the drawdown comes as renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran continues to disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing the U.S. to help offset reduced Middle Eastern supplies. Analysts warn that America is increasingly carrying the burden of stabilizing global oil markets.
“US crude inventories, both commercial and the SPR, have drawn down by nearly 20 per cent since early April. The US accounts for about 70 per cent of global onshore crude inventory draws over the past four months,” said Matt Smith of Kpler.
“It has carried the burden of trying to keep oil prices in check over this period via SPR releases and higher exports, but stockpiles are rapidly depleting and this pace of draws cannot persist ad infinitum.”
The SPR has now fallen to 307.7 million barrels, its lowest level in more than 40 years. While still above its estimated operational minimum of 180 million to 200 million barrels, analysts warn that continued depletion leaves the U.S. increasingly exposed to future supply shocks.
Commodity Context founder Rory Johnston described current crude and gasoline inventories as “precariously low.”
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
INDIA
India To Climate Cartel: Count Us Out
Sunday, Aug 02, 2026 – 09:00 PM
Authored by Vijay Jayaraj via American Greatness,
Sometimes a story gets buried not because editors conspire against it, but because the news cycle has room for only one crisis at a time.
This year the big news has been the Iran war. But even accounting for competing headlines, the silence around a genuinely consequential development is telling.
And that is the story of India’s explicit rejection of the global net zero movement. India has walked away from its bid to host the COP33 UN climate conference, and the world’s climate press has treated it as a footnote rather than the signal it is.
India had spent years projecting a rising voice in the development of climate policy, and hosting a COP33 is the closest thing the bureaucracy has to a coronation.
Then, quietly, without public explanation, India withdrew its offer. No press conference. No elaboration. Just a government stepping back from a role for which it auditioned for years.
The truth is India has run the numbers on the cost of a net-zero energy transition for a population of 1.4 billion climbing out of poverty, and it does not like what it sees.
The notion that India should shackle its economy by adhering to restrictive climate policies, while its people still grapple with energy deficits, is illogical and morally indefensible.
Data India Doesn’t Need a Summit to See
Furthermore, the narrative of a rapidly degrading Indian environment due to energy consumption is demonstrably false.
India’s own environmental indicators do not support the apocalyptic framing of the climate-obsessed.
For years, hydrologists and climate modelers have relied on estimates of Himalayan snowfall to forecast water availability for hundreds of millions of people across South Asia’s most fertile Ganges plains.
Their projections of a seriously drier India, it turns out, were wrong.
A team of researchers, including scientists from the British Antarctic Survey, the U.K. Met Office, and the Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, used frozen high-altitude lakes as natural pressure sensors rather than relying on undersized conventional rain gauges. What they found was startling: In a single winter, the best available snowfall models had underestimated seasonal snow over the Lake Hampta area of Himachal Pradesh by 37 percent. The peer-reviewed study makes clear that conventional instruments have been missing large volumes of snow for decades.
Then there is the vegetation story, which cuts even harder against the doom narrative. Researchers at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology modeled how India’s landscape would respond to a high-emissions future using the same family of computer models climate activists cite when warning of catastrophe.
The result was not desertification. It was the opposite. Gross primary production, a measure of how much carbon dioxide India’s forests, croplands, and other vegetation are absorbing, rose from roughly 729 grams of carbon per square meter annually in 1985 to about 830 by 2014 and is projected to nearly double to around 1,305 by the year 2100.
Layered onto that are the steady expansion of India’s forest cover over the past two decades and the recovering populations of endangered species such as tigers and Asiatic lions, successes resulting from conservation and habitat management rather than from decarbonization mandates.
All this means India has stopped outsourcing its environmental judgment to a U.N. process that treats every barrel of oil and every ton of coal as a moral affront, regardless of its benefit in lighting a clinic for children or powering a steel plant that employs thousands. A country that still has hundreds of millions of citizens without reliable access to electricity does not have the luxury of treating energy poverty as an acceptable trade-off for leadership in the climate industrial complex.
That is why India has expanded coal production and struck oil and gas deals with the United States and Persian Gulf producers. It has resisted binding emissions targets that would cap its own industrial growth, unwilling to commit to far-off targets for emission reductions. India’s relinquishment of COP33 hosting rights is perhaps the most visible expression of a strategic direction that has been building for years.
A country that the entire architecture of climate financing is supposedly built to help just declined to host the party. If climate summits worked as advertised, that would be unthinkable. But it is no longer, and pretending otherwise will not make the next withdrawal any less predictable.
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1522 UP 0.02
USA/ YEN 156.99 DOWN .409 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!! BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE. URGES PENSION AND INSUANCE FUNDS TO BUY JAPANESE BONDS
GBP/USA 1.3458 DOWN 0.0015 OR 15 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4041 UP 0.0025 //CDN DOLLAR DOWN 25 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 22.60 PTS OR 0.59%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 124.97 PTS OR 0.48%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.03%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 124.97 PTS OR 0.48%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.60 PTS OR 0.59%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.03%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 658.02 PTS OR 1.02%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4046.75
silver:$57.90
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 47.54 UP 2 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 80.68 ROUBLE// DOWN 0 ROUBLE AND 68 BASIS PTS. WOULD YOU BELIEVE THAT THE RUSSIAN ROUBLE AND THE ISRAEL SHEKEL ARE THE STRONGEST CURRENCIES BESIDES THE DOLLAR .
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.9628 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.697 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.665 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.1410 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early MONDAY MORNING: 99.70 DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.479% DOWN 7 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.825% UP 3 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.982 UP 2 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.585 DOWN 6 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 3.943 DOWN 9 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.1445 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1524 DOWN 0.0007 OR 7 basis points
USA/Japan: 156.86 DOWN 0.503 OR YEN IS UP 51 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.9574 DOWN 0 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.6882 DOWN 0 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 5 BASIS pts to 1.4043
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The USA/Yuan CNY 6.7522 ON SHORE ..UP
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.7540
TURKISH LIRA: 47.53 DOWN 1 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 6 in basis points from FRIDAY at 4.688% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.234 DOWN 5 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.239 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM 4045.40
SILVER AT 10;00: 57.32
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY
DAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM///
London: CLOSED DOWN 10.35 PTS OR 0.10%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 199.53 PTS OR 1.47%
FRANCE: UP 104.18 OR 1.22PTS
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 199.70 PTS OR 1.01%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 699.19 PTS OR 1.34%
WTI Oil price 78.95 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 82.85 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 80.21 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 41/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.6650 UP 8 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.275 UP 8 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM//
Euro vs USA 1.1513 DOWN 0.0007 OR 7 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3433 DOWN 0.0040 OR 40 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.9549 DOWN 0 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.6832DOWN 6 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.824 UP 3 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.984 UP 1 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 156.86 DOWN 0.503OR YEN UP 50 BASIS PTS//GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM 160.00/ EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4043 UP 0.0528 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 80.50
Brent OIL: 83.88
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 6 BASIS pts to 4.688
USA 30 yr bond yield: DOWN 5 PTS to 5.234%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.256 DOWN 2 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.665 UP 0 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.275 UP 0 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.800 UP 2 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 47.53 UP 1 BASIS PTS GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 81.62 UP 1 AND 2/100 roubles //
GOLD $4053.80 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 58.11 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 673.80 POINTS OR 1.32%
NASDAQ 100 UP 502.60 PTS OR 1.78%
VOLATILITY INDEX 15.70 DOWN 0.29 PTS OR 1.88%
GLD: $ 371.71 UP 0.17 PTS OR 0.05%
SLV/ 52.46 PTS UP 0.10 OR 0.19%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 143/37 PTS OR 0.41%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Bond Yields & Black Gold Dump, Big-Tech & Bitcoin Jump As Another Trump ‘Deal’ Looms; Yentervention Fades
USA DATA RELEASES
US ISM Manufacturing Survey Surges To Strongest In 4 Years, S&P Global Sees “Warning Signs”
Monday, Aug 03, 2026 – 10:10 AM
Despite the recent slide in ‘hard’ data, US Manufacturing remained positive in July,and depending on which survey you are watching, was either flat… or surging.
- S&P Global US July Manufacturing PMI flat at 53.9 vs 53.8 flash and 53.9 for June – three month lows
- ISM US July Manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.6 vs 53.9 exp and 53.8 for June – highest since May 2022
Under the hood, ISM’s Survey showed better than expected improvements across the board…
- Prices Paid 71.1, Exp. 71.0
- Employment 52.8, Exp. 50.0
- New Orders 56.7, Exp. 56.7
Inflation lower, orders and jobs higher…
But, S&P Global’s PMI survey suggested evidence of supply chain disruption was also prominent in the latest survey data, with manufacturers signaling one of the sharpest deteriorations in vendor performance over the past four years. This contributed to slower growth in both inventories and purchases of pre-production goods, which eased to three- and four-month lows respectively
However, “although the headline PMI held steady in July,” Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, warns that “beneath the survey we see some warning signs about the future growth trajectory.”
Production rose at a markedly slower rate in July, linked to a third month of weakened growth of new business, in turn reflecting reduced inventory building after the especially strong precautionary stock accumulation reported in the second quarter. Williamson cited “further pressure came from increased supply chain delays, falling exports, and further pushback on high prices from customers.”
While input cost inflation moderated slightly, inflationary pressures remained elevated thanks principally to the combination of high energy prices and tariffs.
As a side note, ISM respondents saw inflation lower but almost every commodity higher in price?
In response, producers are either trying to raise selling prices to protect margins or boost productivity, hence July also saw another month of high factory gate price inflation and subdued job gains.
Williamson concludes rather ominously: “In this environment, business optimism about growth prospects slipped to the lowest since last October, underscoring the downside risks to the near-term outlook.”
So – once again – choose your own adventure… is US Manufacturing stalling out (S&P Global) or surging at its fastest in four years (ISM)?
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
BRANDON SMITH…
Chaos Agent: Anthony Fauci Represents A System That Needs To Be Cleansed
Friday, Jul 31, 2026 – 11:25 PM
Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us
I think nothing enrages Americans more than a lack of accountability from government officials. Yes, it happens often, and the public hasn’t taken up torches and pitchforks (yet), but I would point out that these incidents are cumulative and they light a growing fire within the collective memory. Eventually, people are going to snap if they don’t see action taken to rectify past wrongs.
This week, Dr. Anthony Fauci faced a flurry of questions from the Senate Homeland Security Committee over his handling of the covid response as well as his involvement in the gain of function research which likely led to the creation of the viral variant that spread around the world and nearly triggered a permanent Orwellian police state.
Fauci pleaded the Fifth over 100 times. It’s not a sign of confidence in his own innocence.
He knows he’s untouchable legally, but I think what the man fears most is public judgment, and he’s not going to offer any confirmation that conservatives and the alternative media were right about him all along. Unfortunately, even with substantial evidence, there is very little that any congressional committee or even the Trump Administration can do about him.
Fauci is well protected, and not just by the sweeping pardon “signed” by Joe Biden which covers the Doctor back to 2014. No, Fauci is also protected by the system – The bureaucracy and the globalist network of which he is a member. Fauci is a chaos agent and he served his purpose well. They’re not going to let him face punishment. If they did, then they might find it harder to procure the cooperation and loyalty of other bureaucrats in future schemes.
There are a lot of commentators out there right now who are agitated by the idea that Fauci might escape penalties for his crimes, but I have to ask, what did they expect? Did they think that Biden’s pardon would simply be ignored?
It’s fascinating to me that so many folks in the alternative media and conservative movements tend to attack Trump every time he takes any action that might remotely bend constitutional rules. They warn with suspicion that he’s “becoming a dictator.” Then, those same people will froth cynically and blackpill when Trump doesn’t act like a dictator when it comes to their pet issues.
It’s rather hypocritical. It would be smarter to admit that Trump’s powers are limited, largely by the same bureaucracy that’s protecting Anthony Fauci. It’s the bureaucracy which constantly interferes with migrant deportations. The same bureaucracy that’s preventing the SAVE Act from being passed. The same system that censored us for years because we dared to share the truth.
Fauci is a prime example of the perversions of that system and why it needs to be cleansed, but he’s also just a symptom of a greater disease. Making an example out of him would be a step in the right direction, but it doesn’t solve the greater problem. People need to stop waiting around for Trump to unilaterally “take down the deep state.” He’s not in a position to do so.
For those who might have forgotten what really happened, at the start of 2020 the world was on the verge of a massive globalist coup, facilitated by hysteria surrounding the pandemic. By early 2020 I had written several articles covering the potential for a pandemic event being used by the establishment as a rationale for wider lockdowns of the population.
At this time, it was not clear if the coronavirus in Wuhan, China involved a microbe that was truly deadly, or if the threat was overblown. It didn’t really matter, the end game was the same. The goal, in my view, was to create enough fear and chaos to trigger an economic crisis and expedite a medical dictatorship. Once Joe Biden entered the White House, they nearly succeeded.
At the end of January 2020 I published an article titled ‘How Viral Pandemic Benefits The Globalist Agenda’. In that piece I noted:
“First, the notion that it [covid] was caused by Chinese citizens ‘eating bats’ or being exposed to a live animal market is rather ridiculous. We’ve seen NO hard evidence whatsoever that this is true, and I believe the narrative is a cover for the fact that the city of Wuhan where the virus outbreak began is the home of not one but TWO level 4 biohazard labs.
I have a hard time ignoring the strange ‘coincidence’ of the high level biohazard labs in Wuhan in favor of the idea that the virus was launched by chance due to the odd diets of central Chinese people. Given the evidence it appears that the coronavirus was gestated in a lab, not in someone’s bat and snake soup. In 2017, scientists outside of China warned that these labs were not secure and that a virus might escape one of the facilities.”
I argued that the outbreak might be a controlled incident or a false flag. I noted the strange coincidence of “Event 201” disaster simulation held by the Gates Foundation and the World Economic Forum only a couple months before the covid pandemic officially began. The simulation involved the international outbreak of a deadly coronavirus.
A few other media outlets came to the same conclusions I did in those early days, including Zero Hedge and the Washington Times. Zero Hedge was ultimately banned from social media (including Twitter), for the position. The Washington Times was pressured to backtrack on portions of their investigation. My website was essentially shadow-banned from search engines like Google.
The media attacked us relentlessly as a “threat to national safety”. They called the idea of a lab leak “baseless conspiracy theory” while citing Dr. Fauci as one of “the most trusted officials in America” when it came to pandemic information (apparently, he was absolutely giddy over his deification by mainstream news platforms).
Six years later we have all been vindicated in our analysis of the pandemic and the abuse of power that it enabled. This week, we have been treated to the release of 1141 pages of Dr. Anthony Fauci’s professional “diaries”, which cover a period from December of 2019 to December of 2022. These diaries confirm everything we suspected at the beginning of the event.
Fauci was deeply embedded in the government’s policy apparatus; he was the go-to adviser for the White House and a primary media representative. He had direct influence over government decisions to enact lockdowns, mandates and vaccine campaigns. He was also tied to the lab experimentation that (allegedly) led to the creation of the virus in question. In other words, Fauci acted as a primary gatekeeper for the chaos, from inception to solution. From end to end.
I continue to believe (according to the behavior and white papers of globalist organizations) that covid was intended to kill far more people than it ended up killing. The initial estimations by groups like the World Health Organization put the death rate at around 3% and a number of news outlets repeated this data point. I think this was the death rate they expected, but not the death rate they eventually got.
The real Infection Fatality Rate ended up being closer to 0.23% on average. Meaning, the world was shut down over a virus that 99.8% of people would easily survive. This fact was greatly suppressed by the media, by politicians and by bureaucrats like Fauci. As far as I can tell, Fauci never addressed this data publicly; it was too inconvenient to the fear narrative.
Any mention of the virus being engineered was eventually silenced. Fauci knew of this censorship and often encouraged it in the name of “fighting misinformation”. According to his diaries, he steered the science away from the lab leak theory even though a majority of virologists broached the idea as likely. Fauci helped organize and participated in discussions that led to the influential “The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2” paper (published in Nature Medicine in March 2020). That paper concluded that a laboratory-based scenario was not plausible and strongly favored natural spillover.
After considerable push-back, Fauci would later claim that he was open to wider investigations into covid origins. But, at the height of the pandemic fervor it was Fauci who consistently labeled these avenues of research as “conspiracy theory”. It was Fauci who poisoned the well. But why was he so obsessed with eliminating the lab leak theory from discussion?
The NIH funded an EcoHealth Alliance grant, providing an award of roughly $600,000 to the Wuhan lab for bat coronavirus research. Some of that work involved creating chimeric viruses and testing them in humanized mice or human cells. A GOA review of federal funding to Chinese agencies from 2014-2021 found at least $1.4 million had been transferred to the Wuhan Lab during that time.
In 2024 congressional testimony, Acting NIH Director Lawrence Tabak acknowledged that the NIH funded this research at Wuhan through EcoHealth. He also admitted that the research met a “generic” definition of gain-of-function. This was a complete contradiction of Fauci’s ongoing denials.
The experiments to enhance viruses for human spread were pursued under a little-known loophole in the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC). As long as the research was meant to develop “solutions or treatments” for the potential spread of manipulated viruses, gain of function experimentation was technically legal. Fauci’s behavior suggests he was covering his tracks on gain of function and the chance that the NIH program was ground zero.
Currently, US national intelligence agencies, the FBI, the CIA, the Department of Energy and multiple foreign intel agencies say they believe the Wuhan lab leak theory is probable (i.e. NOT conspiracy theory).
Fauci might have set the powder keg in place. He might have even lit the fuse. However, the ultimate institutional surge to exploit the crisis required a level of organization much bigger than Fauci. I would look to the Gates Foundation, the WEF, the WHO, as well as influential figures at the Imperial College London, etc. for the top of the pyramid when it comes to the medical tyranny side of things.
In the meantime, the good doctor deserves a lifetime in prison (or execution) for his participation in the coup. Will he get it? Not at the hands of any government, I suspect. Like I said, the bureaucracy is the government BEHIND the government. It is a faceless leviathan that defies transparency. It’s the fail-safe in the event that political leadership grows a conscience. The public can vote out politicians, but we can’t vote out the bureaucracy.
If Trump or the Senate or anyone else attempts to prosecute Fauci, the legal infrastructure overrun by activist judges will protect him. This is a fact. This is how the elites maintain a certain level of control and prevent any real reformation or reckoning.
There are plenty of political leaders in the US that fought back against the mandates (nearly half of all states blocked the restrictions). They helped us win the battle and it’s important to give credit where credit is due. That said, these people can only do so much. They are bound by the rules of the system and the system is designed to safeguard the corrupt.
END
Operation Blackout Takes Down 4 Of The ‘Largest Scam Compounds On Earth’: FBI
Monday, Aug 03, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,
The FBI announced on July 31 that it dismantled four of the “largest scam compounds on Earth” under Operation Blackout, seizing $15.2 billion in assets and freeing thousands of forced laborers.
Scam compounds provide the infrastructure to carry out large-scale online fraud operations and typically employ hundreds of thousands of people, many of whom are captives.
Operation Blackout freed thousands of trafficked workers, the FBI said in a post on X. In addition, roughly 10,000 Americans were reportedly saved from losing their life savings.
The agency did not specify a timeline for the event.
The FBI also built new international partnerships to fight off fraud and trafficking activities, the agency said.
Workers gather with their luggage after leaving a suspected scam center compound in Sihanoukville, Cambodia. Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP via Getty Images
In a July 21 post on X, FBI director Kash Patel said that the seizure of $15.2 billion under Operation Blackout was made over a 16-month period. Dozens of scam centers were dismantled and hundreds of criminals arrested, with multiple human trafficking compounds eliminated. Patel listed four operations carried out as part of dismantling scam operations.
Operation Zephyr Exodus involved the takedown of Cambodia’s Prince Group, a transnational criminal organization.
This led to the seizure of a record 127,000 Bitcoin, worth roughly $15 billion at the time.
Operation Sand Dollar, conducted in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, dismantled nine scam compounds, arrested more than 300 individuals, seized around $300 million, confiscated thousands of electronic devices, and freed thousands of trafficked workers. It was conducted through a joint operation with China’s Ministry of Public Security and the Dubai Police, Patel said.
In Operation Compound Fracture, authorities seized domains and malicious apps linked to scam activities.
And under the Shunda Compound Takedown, the FBI and Thai law enforcement carried out a joint operation that disrupted a network responsible for hundreds of millions of dollars in losses to victims.
Last month, the Treasury Department sanctioned 35 individuals and entities linked to the Prince Group, including a Cambodia-based conglomerate that allegedly provided laundering services for scam proceeds.
U.S. authorities estimate Americans to have lost at least $10 billion to scam operations running from Southeast Asia in 2024, a 66 percent jump from the previous year, the department said.
According to the FBI’s Internet Crime Report 2025, the agency’s Internet Crime Complaint Center received more than a million complaints last year. Total losses from these complaints amounted to over $20.87 billion, a 26 percent increase from the previous year.
Scam Compound Trafficking
In a July 28 statement, the United Nations’ International Organization for Migration (IOM) highlighted the issue of trafficking victims being forced to work in scam centers.
Victims are initially lured through fake job advertisements that promise legitimate work abroad. Once they arrive, they are stripped of documents, locked inside compounds, and forced to carry out online scam operations under threat of violence and other measures. Many survivors report being subjected to sexual abuse, solitary confinement, starvation, and torture, IOM said.
“People trapped in scam compounds are victims of trafficking, forced to commit crimes through violence, threats and coercion. They deserve protection, not punishment,” IOM Director General Amy Pope said in the statement.
“We must work together to support survivors, stop traffickers and close the gaps these criminal networks exploit. No country can tackle this alone,” Pope said.
During 2022–2025, the IOM assisted over 3,500 trafficked victims of forced criminality in Southeast Asia. These people were from 39 nations, mostly from India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Kenya, and Ethiopia.
On Sept. 30 last year, a group of lawmakers introduced the Scam Compound Accountability and Mobilization (SCAM) Act that aims to counter foreign scam operations, according to an Oct. 1, 2025, statement from the office of Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).
The bill also seeks to hold transnational criminal organizations that engage in human trafficking, forced criminality, and cyber scams targeting Americans accountable for their actions.
The legislation was passed by the Senate in December and sent to the House of Representatives the same month. However, no significant action has been taken on the bill since then.
END
Murders In The US Set To Hit 126-Year-Low Following Illegal Immigrant Deportations: DHS
Monday, Aug 03, 2026 – 03:20 PM
Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,
Crime rates have fallen to “historic lows” across the United States, with homicides this year on track to register the lowest level in at least 126 years, according to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
In the first half of 2026, homicides were down 18 percent compared to the first half of last year, DHS said in a July 31 statement. Carjacking crimes tumbled 47 percent during this period, motor vehicle thefts fell 20 percent, robberies dropped 17 percent, and residential burglaries declined 13 percent.
The numbers come from a July 2026 report from the nonpartisan think tank Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) that assessed crime stats across various U.S. cities.
Compared to the first half of 2022, the second year of the Biden administration, homicides in the first half of 2026, the second year of the current Trump administration, were down by 51 percent, according to the CCJ report.
For violent crimes, 2 percent fewer aggravated assaults and 6 percent fewer gun assaults were reported in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period last year. However, domestic violence incidents were up 8 percent, and sexual assaults by 3 percent for this period.
When compared to the first half of 2019, the year prior to the COVID-19 pandemic onset, homicides, aggravated assault, gun assault, sexual assault, domestic violence, robbery, and carjacking crimes were all lower in the first six months of 2026, the report said.
In its statement, DHS gave examples of some of the illegal immigrants with criminal histories who have been deported from the United States: A Salvadoran national with convictions for homicide and assault, a Costa Rican with convictions for property crimes and burglary, a Honduran Tren de Aragua gang member convicted for robbery, and a Vietnamese national convicted for armed carjacking.
“President [Donald] Trump promised to make America safe again, and he has done just that,” Lauren Bis, assistant secretary at the DHS’s Office of Public Affairs, said in the statement.
“Crime has fallen to record lows under the Trump Administration.”
“It’s no surprise that this drop in crime coincides with deportations of dangerous criminal illegal aliens. It is common sense. When you remove criminals from the country, crime rates fall,” Bis said.
In the first year of the current Trump administration, almost three million illegal immigrants had left the United States, then-DHS Secretary Kristi Noem said in a Jan. 20 DHS statement.
Declining Homicides
The CCJ report said that there is no single explanation for the historic low in homicide crimes in the first half of the year. It cited potential impacts from changes in criminal justice operations and strategies, shifts in society and culture, and technological advances.
In a July 23 statement, CCJ said it planned on convening a two-day summit in September with researchers from fields such as criminology, psychology, economics, and sociology to examine the factors likely driving the decline in homicides.
“Murder and other crime rates are falling across the map, in cities with different political leadership, housing and economic conditions, policing and prosecution strategies, violence reduction models, and levels of federal enforcement activity,” CCJ president Adam Gelb said in the statement.
“Local policies and programs surely matter, but the striking consistency of the decline suggests that macro-level forces are exerting enormous influence as well,” Gelb said.
The White House attributed the crime decline in the first half of the year to the Trump administration’s policies in a July 29 statement.
America’s neighborhoods are now safer, registering fewer victims and a decisive end to the crime surge seen in the last decade, the White House said, highlighting that this was “not accidental.”
“It is the direct result of the Trump Administration’s relentless efforts to enforce the rule of law, back the police, and surge resources into communities,” according to the White House.
On Jan. 20, 2025, the first day in his second term, President Donald Trump signed an executive order restoring the death penalty, highlighting that capital punishment was an “essential tool” to deter and punish those who would commit heinous crimes.
The same day, Trump signed another executive order targeting illegal immigrants. In the order, Trump clarified that it is the policy of the United States to faithfully execute immigration laws against all removable illegal immigrants, especially those who “threaten the safety or security of the American people.”
And in April last year, Trump signed an executive order that focused on providing new best practices to local and state law enforcement to “aggressively police communities against all crimes.”
KING NEWS
| The King Report August 3, 2026 Issue 7796 | Independent View of the News |
| US Treasury undertakes historic intervention in yen market – FT on Friday (Palpable panic sign!) New York Fed sells euros to buy yen following recent speculation that Tokyo intervened to support Japan’s currency… The sales were conducted through Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley… https://www.ft.com/content/0f9b2fe7-bde4-4f5f-b49e-93ccb5da9ea8?syn-25a6b1a6=1 The US yen intervention, 1st since 1998 (1997 Asian Contagion), reportedly occurred after the NYSE close. The US sold euros to support the yen instead of dollars because a weak dollar imports inflation. U.S. Intervenes in Currency Markets to Support the Yen – NYT June 18, 1998 The politics of Clinton’s trip to China also weighed heavily on Wednesday’s decision. Over the weekend, China accused the United States and Japan of worsening the Asia crisis by letting the yen fall, and in a series of messages to Treasury officials in the last few days, they began hinting that pressure was growing to devalue China’s currency, the yuan… American officials have long feared that such a move would set off devaluations around the world, as China’s competitors throughout Asia — and in Latin America and Eastern Europe… https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/world/asia/061898dollar-yen.html US Treasury informed banks (via NY Fed on Thur) that it may intervene in Japan’s yen, source says On Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business Network that the yen “seems very undervalued to me” and that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was enacting “strong policies” that would help Japan’s economic fundamentals. Bessent added that “we think excess volatility in the yen isn’t healthy” and that the yen has “substantially overshot what would be called an equilibrium price.”… https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-treasury-informed-banks-that-it-may-intervene-yen-source-says-2026-07-31/ BBG claims Japan just spent a record $52.8B on Thursday to save the yen. The canary is screeching! https://x.com/macropaperr/status/2083139490147860658/photo/1 @Macrobysunil: The 30-yr US Treasury yield has broken out. The debt illusion is beginning to crack. Most people do not yet understand the consequences. Higher long-term yields raise the cost of mortgages, corporate borrowing, government deficits and refinancing across the entire global system… It will affect currencies, equities, pensions, housing, banks and ultimately the cost of living for almost every human on Earth. The world was built on permanently cheap debt. That foundation is fracturing. https://x.com/Macrobysunil/status/2083196639431610817 Isn’t it ironic that Bessent, who profited greatly from shorting the yen in 2013 must now support it! Bessent knows that Japan must dump US Treasuries to support the yen. He also knows that Japan’s ‘Carry Trade’ is the bedrock upon which global speculation is financed and levered. An uncontrollable unwinding of the ‘Carry Trade’ would be catastrophic! ‘Tis why Warsh did not hike! Tokyo CPI rises in July, core inflation nears BOJ target on energy costs, weak yen Core consumer price index inflation– which excludes volatile fresh food prices– rose to 1.9% year-on-year in July, government data showed on Friday. The print was a shade above expectations of 1.8% and accelerated from the 1.6% seen in June… A core reading that excludes both fresh food and energy prices rose to 2.0% in July from 1.9% in the prior month… Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.0% in July from 1.7% in June… https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/tokyo-cpi-rises-july-core-001808233.html Japan Retail Sales hit a 4-month low of 0.5% y/y in June; 3.1% exp. May revised to 5.0% from 5.3%. The Bank of Japan on a 8-1 vote kept its benchmark rate at 1.0%. BoJ Board Member Hajime Takata called for a 25bp hike. Takata warned that a nimble approach to upside price risks from overseas demand shocks is required. Bottom line: The BoJ chickened out even in the face of accelerating inflation. Ueda Speech: BoJ Governor discusses policy outlook after the expected interest rate hold There is risk that underlying CPI will deviate upward to level above 2% price target… BoJ expected to keep raising rates, adjusting degree of easing in response to economy, prices and financial conditions… https://www.fxstreet.com/education/bank-of-japan-set-to-keep-interest-rates-unchanged-after-suspected-yen-intervention-202607302200 Korean Stocks Surge by Record 17% as AI Trade Optimism Rebounds – BBG (end of July markup) @charliebilello The US National Debt has increased by over $407 billion since July 1st… Next stop: $40 trillion… https://x.com/charliebilello/status/2082834340807868448 Fed officials who voted to hike rates say action is needed now against inflation “In my view, now is the time for the FOMC to act to speed the return of PCE inflation to our 2 percent objective and deliver on our commitment to price stability for the American people,” Hammack said. “The longer that high inflation persists, the more challenging and costly it can be to bring it back down.”… “To manage against the risk that high inflation could become entrenched, I would rather tighten policy incrementally as we gather more data on the path of inflation and employment,” Kashkari said in a statement. “If inflation remains elevated, a potential series of small policy moves would be better than waiting and eventually concluding that even bolder actions weren’t necessary.”… “Labor, consumption and financial market conditions indicate that monetary policy is not restraining the economy,” she (Logan) said, also in a prepared statement. “Without any policy restraint, inflation will likely continue to trend above target until there’s an unanticipated shock.” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/31/fed-officials-who-voted-to-hike-rates-say-action-is-needed-now-against-inflation.html @ekwufinance: America’s biggest export this year isn’t oil or semiconductors… it’s gold: $64B; Oil: $62B; Pharmaceuticals: $45B But where is it going? Biggest export destinations and where much of it goes from there: 1. Switzerland -> China/India; 2. UK -> China/India; 3. Canada; 4. Hong Kong -> Mainland China. This trend emerged in the months leading up to the Iran war. Physical gold is moving from West to East. https://x.com/ekwufinance/status/2083227068704198728 @charliebilello: “I think at a point we’re going to be able to do it,” Bessent said during a CBNC interview, adding that he and President Trump were “laser-focused on paying down the debt. I think that we’re going to bring down the deficit-to-GDP, we will start paying down debt, and that can be used as an offset for the American people.” – August 2025 (US debt soared after Bessent said this.) “Fasten your seat belts, it’s going to be a bumpy night ride” for the foreseeable future. US bonds and notes got hammered early on Friday. USUs sank to 118 14/32, -1 pt. The 30-year hit 5.26%. Precious metals fell sharply; oil as +1.89%; and gasoline as -1.0%. ESUs rallied steadily from the Thursday night opening until they hit the daily high of 7517.75 (+ 44.75) at 5:12 ET. After a retreat to 7479.50 at 8:40 ET, trader aggressively bought ESUs for the expected Friday Rally and manipulation to game July performance. After hitting 7515.50 at the NYSE opening, ESUs cascaded to 7427.50 (-45.00) at 10:16 ET. Near the end of the 1st hour of NYSE trading on Friday, AMZN +15.2%, Apple -9.5%, Intel +2.44%, Micron -2.5%; the DJIA, DJTA, Naz 100 and S&P 500 Index were down a tad; Nasdaq was up a tad. DJT tried to save the market on Friday: Trump on Iran: Can Reach a Deal “What Trump offers is an easy escape from the pain. To every complex problem, he promises a simple solution. He can bring jobs back simply by punishing offshoring companies into submission. . . He will spare the United States from humiliation and military defeat with indiscriminate bombing.” — J.D. Vance, “Opioid of the Masses,” The Atlantic, July 4, 2016. After the early carnage on Friday, traders aggressively bought stuff to game July performance. ESUs soared to 5517.00 (+44.50) at 13:30 ET. After a retreat to 7503.25 at 13:50 ET, the late manipulation pushed ESUs to 7531.00 at 15:22 ET. After a retreat to 7520.00 at 15:31 ET, another manipulation pushed ESUs to the daily high of 7540.00 (+67.50) at 15:49 ET. ESUs sank to 7514.75 at 16:01 ET. @rektfencer: Every global crash starts with South Korea… https://x.com/rektfencer/status/2083139394534588774 WSJ on Friday night: Warsh Floats Cut in Number of Fed Rate-Setting Meetings Meeting fewer than eight times a year would mark a substantial shift but would fit Chairman Kevin Warsh’s goal of drawing less attention to the central bank (Great idea! The Street is too Fed centric!) https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/warsh-floats-fewer-fed-meetings-debf5a23?st=mUt27o The Fed and its officials have become too visible and too self-important. Once upon a time, outside of the Fed Chair, few people knew Fed officials because they were not public figures. But Easy Al Greenspan, who was mocked and ridiculed for the ‘WIN’ campaign and bad inflation forecasts (Townsend – Greenspan) reveled in being praised for constantly supplying Wall Street with the juice. As stocks soared, Easy Al and his ilk increasingly were treated like rock stars and saviors. When Ford succeed Nixon in August 1974, inflation was 12%. Ford’s chief economic advisor was Greenspan. Ford told Americans to wear WIN buttons (Whip Inflation Now). Ford announced the risibly inane campaign on October 8, 1974. It, plus Ford & Greenspan, became national jokes & punchlines. Greenspan’s role in the WIN fiasco is cloudy. Initially, like a good soldier, he supported the effort. After mocking and ridicule found him, Al leaked out that he was against the WIN campaign. “WIN”: How Gerald Ford tried to whip inflation with a button January 8, 2023 But Ford’s top economic advisors – like future Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan – were deeply skeptical. Greenspan later called the idea “unbelievable stupidity… https://www.cbsnews.com/news/win-how-gerald-ford-tried-to-whip-inflation-with-a-button/ NYT: Forecasts: Greenspan’s Grades By Louis Uchitelle July 24, 1987 Inflation forecasting was another matter. Townsend-Greenspan failed to foresee the steep rise in the inflation rate – that is, changes in the so-called G.N.P. deflator, the broadest measure of price movements – when inflation was shooting up to 7.3 percent in 1978 and 8.9 percent in 1979. And then, for each year from 1982 through 1986, when inflation was in a steady decline, the firm overestimated the rate by between 1.2 and 2.4 percentage points. In the inflation category, the consulting firm tied for last, in fact, among the eight forecasters in the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s study. The average miss for both Townsend-Greenspan and Wharton was 1.3 percentage points. By comparison, the leader was off by 1 percentage point… https://www.nytimes.com/1987/07/24/business/forecasts-greenspan-s-grades.html Positive aspects of previous session US & Japanese intervention saved stocks and bonds from larger losses on Friday morning. The manipulation to game July performance appeared. The S&P 500 gained 0.7%; the DJIA +0.53%; Com Services +4.60%; Consumer Discretion +6.07% Negative aspects of previous session US Bonds & Note yields jumped higher; the 2-year hit 4.293%; the 30-year hit 5.272%. Stocks and ESUs got slammed during the first 45 minutes of NYSE trading. The US (1st time in ~30 years) and Japan intervened in the yen, a clear sign of trouble and concern! A critical mass of operators and investors realize that Japan is in big-time trouble. The DJTA fell 0.24%; the SOX Index gained only 0.07%. USUs hit a low of 108 8/32, -1 5/32, at 13:50 ET Ambiguous aspects of previous session How bad will the Japan Contagion get? If the US is aggressively intervening in the yen, are they active in other markets? (oil, stocks, AU?) First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7467.22 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7512.04 (15:50 ET); 7399.83 (11:20 ET) @ArthurMacwaters: The US has one of the most progressive tax schemes ever devised in human history. The top 1% pay for 46% of ALL taxes collected. The bottom 50% pay only 2%. When socialists complain about our tax system, they are either stupid, lying, or both. https://x.com/ArthurMacwaters/status/2083300144213303587 WSJ: Trump Orders Fresh Attack on Iran… aimed at getting Tehran to surrender that could begin as soon as this weekend and would last a few days, U.S. officials said… July 31, 2026 5:14 pm ET Trump authorized the new attack plan presented to him at the presidential retreat, U.S. officials said. But, they noted, any immediate progress on the diplomatic front could convince Trump to halt the planned strikes and return to negotiations. He also could simply change his mind… (Make it stop!) @gbrew24: A few Iranian channels and commentators are suggesting that the leaks of US/Israeli plans are a negotiating tactic–that amid the threats, the US is pushing for more talks via mediators. Axios: Following calls from the foreign ministers of Turkey, Qatar, and Pakistan regarding Iran’s readiness to hold a meeting in Geneva, Switzerland, to continue negotiations, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) temporarily paused tonight’s operations for 48 hours. 7:39 PM · Aug 1, 2026 MBS raises concerns over Trump’s plans for massive Iran strikes Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke to President Trump on Saturday and expressed concern over his plans for massive new strikes against Iran… Other regional powers, including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Pakistan, are also pressing the U.S. and Iran to de-escalate. https://www.axios.com/2026/08/01/saudi-crown-prince-trump-iran-attacks A few days ago, after a reporter told Trump that Bibi wanted XYZ, DJT boastfully retorted, “nobody tells me what do to.” Now do the Saudis, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, etc. Trump on Saturday night: The U.S.A. is locked and loaded and ready to go against the Islamic Republic of Iran, at levels of Military Terror, Strength, and Power not seen since World War II. Despite this, we have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to. This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat. Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL. The Country of Israel joins me in this commitment. Get to work, everybody, and get it DONE… Senior Iranian advisor, Marandi: “By now everyone knows this is fake news. Trump backed down.” Fox Political Editor @WillRicci: By my count, this is at least the 9th time Trump has delayed or canceled attacks to give Iran its strongest hand: negotiations. Iran doesn’t negotiate to surrender leverage. It negotiates to preserve it — reconstitute, rebuild & buy time. Tehran knows Trump’s ceiling. It knows his threats expire before its leverage does, and it knows the political clock only improves its hand. Vance already signed the MOU Iran accepted & Dems are even more eager to end the war. This is a forever war doom loop: threaten, pause, negotiate, rebuild, repeat. At this point, unilateral retreat would be less embarrassing than pretending this mess is a strategy. WSJ on Sunday: Iranian officials view the conflict as politically costly for the U.S. administration ahead of the midterm elections, leading the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to weigh pre-emptive regional strikes if current diplomatic talks fail, regardless of whether the U.S. initiates a fresh attack. A senior Gulf official told the WSJ that some countries, such as the UAE, are pushing Trump to take more action against Iran, saying that Iran will not compromise until the U.S. escalates, like by taking control over the Strait of Hormuz and considering ground operations… The WSJ reports Gulf states are frustrated with lack of strategy from the US/Trump. Trump on Sunday evening: “Now what we’re doing is talking to them in the form of a negotiation. It begins tomorrow afternoon.” (“Groundhog Day” is a charming movie. DJT’s Groundhog Day is…) Japan and the United States might unveil policies this week to address the yen’s weakness, Kyodo News reported on Saturday. A purposeful, calculated leak that is verbal intervention? NPR: Starting Saturday, for a fee of up to $100,000 a month, trading firms can access “Truth API” to get a glimpse of the president’s often market-moving announcements about economic policy and global affairs before the rest of the world… https://www.npr.org/2026/08/01/nx-s1-5912219/trump-truth-social-access-insider-trading Trump Media’s new paid data service goes live, giving clients faster access to Trump’s posts https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/01/trump-medias-new-data-service-gives-faster-access-to-trumps-posts.html To justify $100k/month, DJT MUST provide beaucoup profitable inside information. Get ready for Trump Gone Wild! This is overtly about providing inside info for a fee. It is seemly, appalling, and probably illegal. @realDonaldTrump: The Winning Shot in the Bedminster Club Championship! Thank you very much to all of those who participated. I won with a score of 70, and am so honored in that, unlike the rest of the field, I’m given very little time to practice, because I’m focused on many other things. It’s called TALENT, and I have it, and they don’t!… (DJT took more bashing for this than his latest TACO!) @SecScottBessent: The Trump Administration delivers for America’s trusted partners. Economic security is national security. And the U.S.-Japan alliance is built on both. Friday’s coordinated foreign exchange actions countered disorderly yen movements. Treasury remains attentive and in close communication with our counterparts at MOF and BOJ. We will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention. The FIMA Repo Facility is an important backstop. We would encourage it to be upsized in the coming months. We strongly support Japan’s decisive market and monetary steps to correct the substantial undervaluation of the yen. The Takaichi government is moving into an exciting new phase of Abenomics, as nearly 15 years of powerful stimulus have created durable, robust underlying economic dynamics. 7:00 PM · Aug 2, 2026 Today – Reports say the US and Japan will announce a scheme to support the yen. You do NOT perform coordinated interventions in ‘free markets’ unless there are huge problems in the system. Traders will play for the Monday Rally and start-of-August buying, greatly emboldened by US-Japan market intervention. However, there are three major problems that have been largely ignored that are intensifying. Mr. Bond is in vigilant mode; a Japan Contagion is incubating; and DJT might ‘go Medieval on Iran’s arse.’ The yen/$ is 157.66 at 20:00 ET An increasing number of discerning investors and traders are realizing that a Japan Contagion is upon us. The panicky interventions last week are alarming. Intervention in the short term will work; but history shows it is doomed to fail until fundamental changes occur. Japan has too much debt and it has survived via NZIRP (Next to Zero Interest Rate Policy). Also, most of the known universe finances its levered positions via the Yen Carry Trade. Japan cannot unwind these dynamics without a large degree of pain and suffering. It’s just a question of why and how much? Google AI: Japan’s national debt is the highest among major developed nations, standing at roughly 230% to 250% of its gross domestic product (GDP). This massive load comes from decades of economic stimulus, an aging population, and long-term low interest rates. Trading Economics: Japan recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 248.70 percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product in 2025. Government Debt to GDP in Japan averaged 152.66 percent of GDP from 1980 until 2025, reaching an all-time high of 258.40 percent of GDP in 2020 and a record low of 50.60% of GDP in 1980. source: Ministry of Finance, Japan. https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-debt-to-gdp ESUs are +32.50; NQUs +172.00; USUs +17/32; WTI Oil is -$3.97; Gasoline is -7.14 cts at 20:11 ET. S&P Index 50-day MA: 7472; 100-day MA: 7207; 200-day MA: 7024 (S&P 500 Close 7489.80) DJIA 50-day MA: 51,708; 100-day MA: 49,886; 200-day MA: 49,051 (DJIA Close 52,485.74) (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) Investigators believe Iranian hackers are likely behind cyberattack on Minnesota water systems U.S. investigators believe a cyberattack that targeted dozens of water systems in Minnesota this week likely was orchestrated by Iranian hackers… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/investigators-believe-iranian-hackers-likely-behind-cyberattack-minnesota-water-systems-report @MaryMargOlohan: POTUS, from the cabinet meeting, says he doesn’t think Iran was responsible for the cyber attack on Minnesota water systems: “Iran’s got bigger problems than worrying about Minnesota.” (And DJT does NOT believe China & Russia are aiding and arming Iran!) @Osint613: Trump: We heard in Minnesota there was a cyberattack. They blamed it on Iran. I don’t think so. I blame it on Minnesota and its corrupt governor. Israel destroys terror tunnels in Lebanon that Hezbollah planned to use https://trib.al/w9blmBG Turkey urges Iran to halt attacks on Kurdish groups – Ankara fears further Iranian strikes could push Kurdish opposition groups closer to Israel and undermine Turkey’s peace process with the PKK https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-urges-iran-halt-attacks-kurdish-groups @DrEliDavid: Jews lived in Judea and Spaniards lived in Spain until both were conquered by Arab Muslims in the 7th century. Spaniards regained their land in the 13th century, and Jews in the 20th century. | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
“I’ve Been Doxed”: Lefty Podcaster Scott Galloway Rips Mamdani After Landing On Socialist’s Rich Target List
Saturday, Aug 01, 2026 – 11:05 AM
Prominent liberal podcaster and NYU professor Scott Galloway, who can only be described as a “useful idiot” for helping legitimize far-left New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, appears to be awakening from his political delusion.
Galloway now says he has been “doxed” after realizing that the socialist movement he helped empower is publicly identifying wealthy property owners (read report), including himself, as political and financial targets.
“I’ve been doxed,” Galloway said on the latest episode of the “Pivot” podcast. “I don’t know if you’ve heard, but Mayor Mamdani has decided to release a list of 950,000 residences, including addresses and names, that might be eligible for his pied-à-terre tax.”
“I don’t love this,” co-host Kara Swisher agreed. “I can’t say I love this. It feels a little bit like doxing. Just tax them and get on with it, is my feeling.“
Related:
Galloway read out the definition of doxing to Swisher as “publishing private identifying information to expose someone to public pressure or harm without their consent,” and pointed out that while he’s not the biggest fan of the tax, he is certainly not a fan of how the far left in City Hall essentially created a “wanted poster” for property owners.
“He’s taken a legitimate source of tax revenue, and he’s turning it into a wanted poster,” Galloway continued. “The question I would have is, other than trying to identify and imply these people have done something wrong — and then, 18 months after a healthcare CEO was executed in the street, published the list — what is the upside here? Why is he doing this?“
Spencer Pratt, who has become a leading anti-Marxist voice, commented on the Fox News article detailing Galloway’s break with the far-left Mamdani. He said, “The communist refers to this person as the ‘useful idiot’—the gullible squish who foolishly supports the revolution, and only begins to understand his folly as he’s being lined up against the wall. If you think you’re safe from the commies because you vote blue, wake up.“
Pratt is entirely correct, because somehow Galloway missed the fact that Mamdani and the rest of the Democratic Socialists of America are not progressive at all; in fact, they’re formalist socialists whose goal is not affordability, but rather “overthrowing capitalism.”
Anti-communist analyst Karlyn Borysenko recently published a five-tiered “rainbow cake” view of the American left, ranging from establishment Democrats who favor incremental reform within capitalism to revolutionary socialists seeking to abolish and destroy the nation from within.
DSA is very open about their stated goals:
Returning to Galloway, he warned that Mamdani is “making it harder for all progressives.” He’s not wrong. The Trump administration has already built the infrastructure and task forces needed to confront the radical left, while publicly declaring that fight before delegations from 65 nations in recent weeks. At the center of that effort is an anti-communist information campaign that is already underway.
Full Conversation:
Perhaps Democrats should never have invited socialists, Marxists and, especially, the emerging “red-green alliance” into their DEI political kingdom.
Now the DSA and its Marxist allies, whose anti-American rhetoric increasingly reflects an effort to destroy the country from within, are becoming a liability for the entire Democratic Party. Some elements of this far-left movement may also intersect with foreign influence or subversion networks.
GREG HUNTER…INTERVIEWING CHARLES NENNER
Oil, Gold, Stocks, Real Estate & Banks – Charles Nenner
By Greg Hunter On July 31, 2026 In Market Analysis, Political Analysis8 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (This takes the place of the Saturday Night Post)
Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner is usually way ahead of market moves. When nobody wanted silver ($29), he was buying it. When everyone wanted silver a few months ago ($120), he was selling it. So, what is Nenner seeing in the markets right now? Let’s start with the big surprise prediction coming in oil prices. Lots of people say oil is going higher, a lot higher. There are plenty of predictions of oil breaking over $200 a barrel. Heck, even President Trump thinks oil will hit $200, but Nenner says he’d be wrong. Nenner explains, “The crazy thing is, based on all my analysis, is crude oil looks weak for the next year. I am not sure what it means. . .. I see oil going down longer term. Maybe other countries are going to find oil because they cannot rely on oil (from the straight of Hormuz) anymore. By the way, Saudi Arabia has plans to make a pipeline through Israel to bring it to the sea. So, they won’t need the Strait of Hormuz anymore. Intelligence will find a solution. I think they are going to pump more oil. If people think they will flood the world with oil from other countries, then the price will come down. . .. there may be an outside chance of oil hitting $101 (per barrel).”
On gold, Nenner predicts, “Some cycles are very interesting. The gold cycle came down at $5,300 (per ounce). We have a 30-day free subscription, and you can see those cycles. They are close to bottoming now. Soon, there should be a new up move for gold. We had a (downside) price target of around $3,800 per ounce. We are very close. So, gold starts looking good into 2027.” Nenner says the next gold bull market starts next month in August.
On silver, Nenner says, “Silver was a catastrophe because we had the cycle top at $121 (per ounce), and we couldn’t get people out of it. . .. Silver is also going to be in a new bull market. It could go back to the old highs of $120.”
On the stock market, Nenner says, “The cycles in 1926 and 1927 line up like they did before the crash of 1929. This is almost August, and big investors have time to be very defensive. I want to repeat my forecast of a very big downturn in the stock market.”
Nenner likes cash, and he says watch out for big losses coming from some big banks. Nenner says, “Real estate is a bad investment. I know big pension funds, and they have real estate in New York, and they are selling with a loss. Other banks have losses, and nobody speaks about it—yet. . .. So, there is a lot going on that the average person doesn’t know. I know it because I work with these people, and things don’t look very safe. . .. I think we could have a banking crisis.”
There is much more in the 40-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes one-on-one with renowned cycle analyst and financial expert Charles Nenner for 7.31.26.
There is free information and analysis on CharlesNenner.com.
You can sign up to be a subscriber for Nenner’s cutting edge cycle work with a free trial period by clicking here. (No credit card is required, and the free trial period lasts for 30 days.)
(USAW does not get compensated by Nenner in any way. We post this as a courtesy.)
This segment is sponsored by Discount Gold and Silver Trading. Ask for Melody Cedarstrom, the owner, at 1-800-375-4188.
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