GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2026: 160 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 16,000 OZ or 0.4977 TONNES
total notices so far: 18,288 contracts FOR 1,828,800 OZ OR 56.883 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 10 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.0500 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1627 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 8.135 million oz
GLD
GOLD COMEX OUTLINE;
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 345 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 34,500 OZ/ (1.073 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 345 CONTRACTS OR 34500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 24.635 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES OF GOLD.
JUNE; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 64.496 TONNES.(CME CORRECTED) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.0186 TONNES/NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F 0.0062 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 40.824TONNES
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 200 CONTRACTS OR 20,000 OZ OR 6.220 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.7045 TONNES TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.552 TONNES TO OUR FIRST 0.0715 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.9533 AND THEN ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 220 CONTRACTS FOR 22000 OZ OR 0.6864 TONNES//STANDING THUS ADVANCES TO 61.5893 TONNES
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS IN GOLD ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3873 CONTRACTS WITH 2050 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 1823 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.
THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3873 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED AND CRIMINAL 1916 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON .
GOLD PRICE ROSE BY $29.30
STANDING FOR THE LAST 8 MONTHS JANUARY TO AUGUST:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW FINAL STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 345 CONTRACTS/34,500 OZ// 1.073 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MAY// 5 OCCASIONS: 24.635 TONNES///NEW FINAL STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER JUMP OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING 127.03 TONNES//FINAL
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0000 TONNES/ PLUS 0.0062 TONNES EX FOR RISK///NEW STANDING FOR GOLD REMAINS AT 40.824TONNES.
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST 0.0715 TONNES EXCHANGE TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 1.552 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF: 1.7045//TOTAL FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK 3.3312 TONNES THEN FINALLY TO OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 200 CONTRACTS FOR 0.6220 TONNES TO OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.6864 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 61.5863 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
YEAR 2026:
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 118.430 TONNES
JUNE: 142.053 TONNES
JULY: 163.82 TONNES
AUGUST: 117.247 TONNES
AUGUST 21 2026
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.30 PTS OR 0.27%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 231.93 PTS OR 0.91%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 951.58 PTS OR 1.46%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.50%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7240
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7246 Oil UP TO 87.23 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 92.73 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7240 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7246 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMITS
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A MEGA HUGE 2368 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 117,247
EFP ISSUANCE 505 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 505 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2,368 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 505 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE LOSS OF 1863 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $2.92
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 9.315 MILLION PAPER OZ
STANDING ADVANCES AT 8.195 MILLION OZ
SILVER PRICE GAIN OF $2.92
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AUGUST 21//EARLY ASIAN TRADING;
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.48 PTS OR 0.04%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 308.51 PTS OR 1.20%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 238.00 PTS OR 0.36%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.12%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7206
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7187 Oil DOWN TO 86.52 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 93.23 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7206 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7189 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR 2050 CONTRACTS TO 422,458 STILL WELL ABOVE ITS NEW LOW OF 326,052 OI SET JUNE 3, CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 345,705 SET (MAY 28) AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 353,490 SET MAY 27.. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 326,052 //JUNE 3 2026 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,450.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING/. IT SEEMS THAT MANY OF THE SPECULATORS THAT HAVE NOW CONTINUED AGAIN TO BE ON THE SHORT SIDE WITH BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE AND THESE GUYS WERE AGAIN OBLITERATED YESTERDAY WHEN THE LONGS TENDERED FOR DELIVERY:
CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS JULY CONTRACT MONTH!!
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (3873 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD (UP $29.30)
WE THUS HAD A FAIR GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES (3873 CONTRACTS), WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A FAIR CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE EQUATING TO 1823 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A 0 CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0.0 TONNES OF GOLD. TOTAL THUS SO FAR THIS MONTH: 1271 CONTRACTS//127,100 OZ OR 3.9533 TONNES (4 OCCASIONS)
MONTH OF MAY RECORD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK: THE HIGHEST EVER ISSUANCE!!
MAY 22 RECORDS THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 12.4416 TONNES. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THE THIRD ON MAY 18 , THEN MAY 21 OUR 4TH ISSUANCE AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY, OUR 5TH ISSUANCE. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH JULY AND AUGUST
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS OR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES.
JUNE: 0 IN GOLD. THUS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IN GOLD ZERO NOTICES WERE FILED.
JULY: 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES
AUGUST: 1271 CONTRACTS FOR 127,100 OZ OR 3.9533 TONNES (4 OCCASIONS THIS MONTH)
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO AUGUST:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 131+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS, 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
JUNE: ZERO
JULY 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES. I DOUBT VERY MUCH THAT THIS IS A CENTRAL BANK
AUGUST: 1271 CONTRACTS FOR 127,100 OZ OR 3.9533 TONNES//4 OCCASIONS
DETAILS ON OUR NEW AUG COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3,873 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE ($29.30). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE/JULY/AUG CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A FAIR SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1916 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS.
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND MAY WITH ITS 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 12.4436 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 24.635 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12, MAY 18 MAY 21 AND NOW MAY 22..
THEN IT SLOWS DOWN!
JUNE: ZERO FOR THE MONTH
JULY: 2 SO FAR FOR 200 IZ IR 0.00622 TONNES
AUGUST: 1271 CONTRACTS FOR 127,100 OZ OR 3.9533 TONNES
WE MUST ALSO REMEMBER THAT THE FRBNY IS SHORT 131+ TONNES OF GOLD, THIS COMMENCED ON JAN 2 2023 AS THEY REFUSE TO COVER DESPITE THE BIS’S PLEA TO DO SO.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 16 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2025
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING FINALIZES AT 157.879 TONNES, ITS HIGHEST STANDING RECORDED IN OVER 4 YEARS.
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 34,500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNESS
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE SUBTRACT AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES// TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH FINALIZES AT 62.4217 TONNES OR AVERAGING 3.285 TONNES PER DAY IN JUNE.
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 749,300 OZ OR 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000TONNES//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 40.818TONNES PLUS 0.00622 TONNES EXHANGE FOR RISK// NEW TOTAL 40.824 TONNES . TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING SO FAR: 17.5802 TONNES OR 0.8790 TONNES ON EACH TRADING DAY LEAVING COMEX FOR EASTERN SHORES.
AUGUST INITIAL; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STANDS: 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 220 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR 0.6220 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 1.7045 TONNES TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 1.552 TONNES TO OUR FIRST: 0.0715 NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 3.9533 TONNES AND THEN ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 220 CONTRACTS OR 22,000 OZ (0.6864 TONNES)//STANDING, IN TOTAL, THUS ADVANCES HUGELY TO 61.5893 TONNES. CENTRAL BANKERS ARE EYING THE HUGE DEPOSIT IN GOLD OF 9 TONNES ON THURSDAY.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE 4 YEARS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING AUGUST. CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE ( IT ROSE BY $123.70)
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION THURSDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING /FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE AT COMEX OF $29.30
WE HAD 3096 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM PRELIMINARY NUMBERS TO FINAL COMEX NUMBERS.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3873 CONTRACT OR 387,300 OZ 19.365 TONNES)
AUG DELIVERY MONTH
AUGUST 21
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold one entry i) Into Asahi: 15,061.423 oz total deposit: 15,061.423 oz xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 160 CONTRACTS 16,000 OZ 0.4977 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 242 Contracts 24,200 OZ 0.752 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 18,288 notices 1,828,800 OZ 56.833 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
ENTRIES: 1
i) Into Asahi: 15,061.423 oz
total deposit: 15,061.423 oz
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comex withdrawal
0 ENTRIES
adjustments: 1//
i) Out of HSBC: 2500.03 oz customer to dealer
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF AUG OI STANDS AT 402 CONTRACTS HAVING A GAIN OF 28 CONTRACTS.
NORMAL STANDING FOR GOLD YESTERDAY: 56.958. TODAY’S STANDING IS 57..636 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 3.9533 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK. THE NORMAL STANDING INCLUDES OUR NEXT 220 QUEUE JUMP CONTRACT JUMP OR AN ADDITIONAL 22,000 OZ (0.6864 TONNES) WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
SEPTEMBER LOST 174 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 4240
OCT GAINED 683 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 54,593
.
We had 160 contracts filed for today representing 16,000 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 160 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 91 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUGUST. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (18,288) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUG (402 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 160x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,853,000 OZ OR (57.636 Tonnes of gold)then we add our 4 exchange for risk of 1271 contracts for 127,100oz or 3.9533..new standing advances to 61.5893 tonnes.
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUG. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (18,288) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUG( 402) contracts minus the number of notices served upon today 160 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,853,000 OZ OR (56.958 Tonnes of gold) plus 3.9533 tonnes exchange for risk..new standing advances to 61.5893 tonnes
new total of gold standing in AUG becomes 61.5893 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR AUG 61.5693 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW REALLY HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUG
confirmed volume THURSDAY confirmed 221,809/ GOOD// many have left the arena
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,713,346.605 oz 53.29 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,713,346.605 tonnes oz 53.29 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 26,695,914..843 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 14,532,511.560 tonnes (452.644 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 12,163,403.283 oz. Lots of eligible gold leaving the comex
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 12,819,165oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
398.729 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
AUG DELIVERY MONTH
AUGUST 21
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries i) Out of Asahi 88,297.280 oz ii) Out of CNT 182,715.897 oz total withdrawal: 371,013.177 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | ENTRY: 1 i) Into ASAHI: 599,525.000 OZ total deposit: 599,525.000 oz ENTRY: 0 |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 10 CONTRACT(S) ( 0.050 MILLION OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 12 Contracts (0.060 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1627 contracts 8.135 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
ENTRY:0
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
ENTRY: 1
i) Into Brinks: 599,121.812 oz
total deposit 599,121.812 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals:
TWO ENTRIES
i) Out of Asahi 88,297.280 oz
ii) Out of CNT 182,715.897 oz
total withdrawal: 371,013.177 oz
adjustments :3 all dealer to customer
i) Asahi 40,843.820 oz
ii) Brinks 72,554.880 oz
iii) Delaware; 55,057.281.
iv) Manfra; 70,096.455 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 99.137 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 337.864 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR AUGUST
FRONT MONTH: SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS: 22 FOR A LOSS OF 1 CONTRACTS.
YESTERDAY WE HAD 8.145 MILLION OZ STAND YESTERDAY: TODAY WE HAVE 8.195 MILLION OZ STAND
THUS WE HAVE A GAIN OF 10 CONTRACTS I.E. 50,000 OZ WILL UNDERGO A QUEUE JUMP AND STAND AHEAD OF US SMALL MORTALS AND TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
SEPTEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 6247 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 42,897 CONTRACTS
OCT GAINED 134 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 2480
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 10 or 0.050 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume THURSDAY; 100,038// excellent/
AND NOW AUGUST. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUG. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1627 X5,000 oz = 8.135 MILLION oz.
Then we take the difference between the front month of August and the number of notices filed for today x 5000 to give us our standing
Thus the standings for silver for the AUG 2026 contract month: (1627 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUG ( X22) minus number of notices served upon today (10 x 5000 oz) equals silver standing for the AUG .contract month equating to 8.195 MILLION OZ. ( a very strong delivery month)
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 99.137 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 137.898/337.864million: 40.94%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD/
AUGUST 21//2026/WITH GOLD UP $103.98 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.65 TONNES
AUGUST 20//2026/WITH GOLD UP $29.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 9.41 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.65 TONNES
AUGUST 19//2026/WITH GOLD UP $123.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.42 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.24 TONNES
AUGUST 18//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $51.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 7.13 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1030.66 TONNES
AUGUST 17//2026/WITH GOLD UP $36.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD FORM THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.53 TONNES
AUGUST 14//2026/WITH GOLD UP $16.55 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.80 TONNES
AUGUST 13//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $43.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3,139 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025,80TONNES
AUGUST 12//2026/WITH GOLD UP $24.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.562 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022.672TONNES
AUGUST 11//2026/WITH GOLD UP $20.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.52 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1020.06TONNES
AUGUST 10//2026/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.82 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017. 540TONNES
/AUGUST 7//2026/WITH GOLD UP $98.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.720TONNES
AUGUST 6//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.851 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.143TONNES
AUGUST 5//2026/WITH GOLD UP $59.75 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.146 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.874TONNES
AUGUST 3//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.80 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WIITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1007.02TONNES
JULY 31//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.40 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 30//2026/WITH GOLD UP $63.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 29//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 28//2026/WITH GOLD UP 21.50 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 27.2026/WITH GOLD UP 21.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JLY 24/2026/WITH GOLD UP 6.30 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 98.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1007.87TONNES
JULY 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP $73.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES
JULY 21/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.40 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.572 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.45 TONNES
JULY 20/2026/WITH GOLD UP $59.75 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.860 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1003.59 TONNES
JULY 17/2026/WITH GOLD UP $26.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.572 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.878 TONNES
JULY 16/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $110.60 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.45 TONNES
JULY 15/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 1.94 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.45 TONNES
JULY 14/2026/WITH GOLD UP $63.45 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : / //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.510 TONNES
JULY 13/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $105.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL 0F 3.108 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.510 TONNES
JULY 10/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT 0F 3.138TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.618 TONNES
JULY 9/2026/WITH GOLD UP $58.60 /SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.510 TONNES
JULY 8/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $73.30 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.79 TONNES
JULY 7/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.42 TONNES OUT INTO THE GLD/ ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1002.79 TONNES
JULY 6 /2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.954 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD/ ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.366 TONNES
JULY 3 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $62.95 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JULY 2 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $44,05 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
JULY 1 /2026/WITH GOLD UP $42.95 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ./ //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.077 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1034.65 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
AUGUST 21 WITH SILVER UP $1.48 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.121 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 20 WITH SILVER UP $2.92 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.169 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.121 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 19 WITH SILVER UP $1.72 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.259 MILLION OZ OZ INTO THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.02 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 768,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.296 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 17 WITH SILVER UP $1.11 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 768,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.296 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.19 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 720,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.064 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.92 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.341 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.75 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A DEPOSIT OF 3.434 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.341 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A DEPOSIT OF 1.085 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.907 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 10 WITH SILVER UP $1.83 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV; / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.822 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 7 WITH SILVER UP $2.00 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.355 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.822 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.75 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.467 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 5 WITH SILVER UP $2.20: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV :// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.673 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV :A DEPOSIT OF 2.893 MILLION OZ FROIM THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.673 MILLION OZ
JULY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.90: :NOCHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.97: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 723,000 OZ INTO THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.34: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.057 MILLION OZ
JULY 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.27: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.633 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.057 MILLION OZ
JULY 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.27: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.722 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.690 MILLION OZ
JULY 24 WITH SILVER UP $1.45: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.413 MILLION OZ
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN 2.18: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 0.723MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.413 MILLION OZ
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.45: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.217 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.690 MILLION OZ
JULY 21 WITH SILVER UP $1.89: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.217 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.961 MILLION OZ
JULY 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.97: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 2.17 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.232 MILLION OZ
JULY 17 WITH SILVER UP $0.25: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 1.175 MILLION OZ// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.062 MILLION OZ
JULY 16 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.48: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.887 MILLION OZ
JULY 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.52: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 3.30 MILLLION OZ OZ INTO THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.887 MILLION OZ
JULY 14 WITH SILVER UP $1.18: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 543,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 477,587 MILLION OZ
JULY 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.07: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.130 MILLION OZ
JULY 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.67: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.904 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.130 MILLION OZ
JULY 9 WITH SILVER UP $2.64: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.497 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.531 MILLION OZ
JULY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.70: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.497 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.531 MILLION OZ
JULY 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.36: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.266 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.034 MILLION OZ
JULY 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.300 MILLION OZ
JULY 3 WITH SILVER UP $1.81: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ INTO THE SLV.// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.360 MILLION OZ
JULY 2 WITH SILVER UP $0.58: : NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.360 MILLION OZ
JULY 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.48: : SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.233 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/./ // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.360 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 491.121 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ//ALASDAIR MACLEOD..
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
Busted bonds and bouncing gold
$40 trillion and counting. Bessent forced to buy USTs to keep yields down. These headlines are undermining the dollar’s credibility which is why gold is now rising strongly.
There can be little doubt that gold has turned a corner. Markets now see risk in the dollar, whereas as recently as last month it was everyone’s safe haven. This dramatic change in sentiment has seen gold rise to positive territory for the year and oversold silver rushing to catch up. So far, the buying appears to be a Western phenomenon without Chinese involvement.
Since mid-July gold has risen over $600 to $4590 this morning and silver from under $55 to $69.70. That’s up 16% and 27% respectively in a month. And technical analysts will be turning positive because the gold chart is now in bullish sequence with the price, 55-day moving average, and 12-month MA all rising. The trend is our friend, as they say.
So, why the turnaround?
A notable development is that gold and silver are rising at the same time as the oil price. Oil prices are rising against a background of the US’s oil suppression scheme running dry, with strategic reserves all but exhausted. The inflationary implications are for far higher wholesale and retail prices by the year-end, as indicated by the price of diesel which is a truer reflection of energy prices than oil itself. This chart of diesel is from Business Insider:
The price has risen from $1.94 on 24th June to $2.67 yesterday — up 38% in under two months.
Diesel is vital for all logistics, and its cost feeds into the costs of everything else. Not only have Gulf refineries been put out of action but so have many in Russia by Ukraine’s drones, leading Russia to ban diesel exports. And this week it is reported that desperate Russia is now forced to import it. Not only has diesel risen substantially in price, but it will continue to do so ensuring a global logistics and transport crisis. And the same is true of jet fuel.
The anticipated inflationary impact on the US economy at the same time as federal government debt crosses the $40 trillion line is causing UST-bond yields to rise, driven in part by foreign selling which appears to be accelerating This is next:
Clearly, these developments are causing concern at the US Treasury, which is intervening by buying long bonds to supress their yields. This is a battle we can expect the US Treasury to lose, because these purchases along with evaporating foreign interest add to its funding requirements and problems.
Sanctions are the latest move
The stalemate in the war against Iran has led to threats of tightening sanctions against any country or entity that deals with Iran. These threats are effectively toothless, because China, Russia, and the ‘stans in Central Asia, all Iran’s trading partners, will simply ignore them. Furthermore, the risk is of turning a military war into a financial one, weaponizing the dollar even further and alienating the dollar from global trade settlement.
Sanctions certainly cause discomfort to their targets, but Iran, whose very existence is threatened by America, is not going to give in. The crisis for US debt financing is considerably more immediate.
These developments occur at a time when ownership of gold in Western capital markets is abysmally low, with physical ETFs representing about 0.3% of the $100 trillion estimated value of North American portfolios. Gold mines represent a further $700 billion, taking total sector exposure to about 1%. To correct this underrepresentation requires a purchase of the equivalent of 6,750 tonnes of gold for every 1% increase in portfolio exposure at current prices. That is two years’ worth of global mine supply.
Clearly, gold and therefore its volatile cousin silver are wildly underpriced for this shift in sentiment against the US dollar, which has only just started. Furthermore, speculative interest remains close to historical lows, as indicated by open interest on Comex.
In summary, the favourable dynamics behind gold are turning very quickly with dramatic consequences for prices, set to move far higher and quickly at that.
END
3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
‘Hint of financial repression’? For decades gold price suppression was far more than a hint
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2026-08-21 08:55 Section: Daily Dispatches
Dollar Wobbles as Treasury’s Bond Market Buybacks Raise Fresh Concerns
By Niket Nishant and Rae Wee
Reuters
Thursday, August 20, 2026
The dollar slipped today and was set to end a bumpy week lower, as investors questioned whether the U.S. Treasury’s efforts to calm the bond markets might end up undermining confidence in the currency.
Those concerns pushed the euro up 0.21% to $1.1703, on course for its fourth consecutive weekly gain. The British pound was up 0.15% to $1.3652, holding close to its highest since May.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday he may increase the government’s repurchases of Treasuries further, a day after the department surprised markets with a pledge to double the size of buybacks of longer-dated debt to rein in bond yields.
But some argued that efforts to keep a lid on longer-term yields may only shift pressure elsewhere in U.S. markets, with the currency potentially bearing the brunt.
“When it comes to the dollar, even the hint of financial repression and more unconventional policy is unhelpful. We are becoming less convinced that the dollar will rebound as far as our current forecasts imply over the coming months,” said Jonas Goltermann, chief markets economist at Capital Economics. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
Trump to back U.S. minerals projects with $500 million in grants
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2026-08-20 11:57 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ernest Scheyder and Jarrett Renshaw
Reuters
Thursday, August 20, 2026
The U.S. Department of Energy is awarding $500 million in grants to seven companies building domestic lithium, cobalt, and other mineral and battery projects, the latest in a string of investments aimed at bolstering American mining and processing, according to a document seen by Reuters.
The funding comes weeks after President Donald Trump outlined a goal to make the U.S. the “minerals superpower of the world” and curb reliance on market leader China.
The administration has used loans, grants, government investments, and other tools to encourage new mining and processing projects, while seeking to build a more secure domestic supply chain for minerals considered essential to the economy and national security. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
Russian sales bring gold reserves to their lowest since 2020
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2026-08-20 11:42 Section: Daily Dispatches
That’s if the official figures are true. But even if they are and China is buying the gold, isn’t the bigger story that gold is the international reserve that can be sold without crashing the bond markets?
* * *
From Bloomberg News
Thursday, August 20, 2026
The Bank of Russia continues to sell gold from its reserves, cutting its holdings at the end of July to the lowest level in more than six years.
Russia’s bullion holdings fell by 1.6 million ounces since the start of the year to 73.2 million ounces as of Aug. 1, according to data published Thursday by the central bank. That’s the smallest amount since January 2020
The value of the bank’s gold reserves fell by $33.7 billion over the seven months, according to the data.
The Bank of Russia was once the biggest sovereign buyer of gold, purchasing much of the country’s mined output before pausing acquisitions in early 2020. Two years later, its pledge to resume buying helped absorb part of the supply that the country struggled to export due to sanctions imposed over the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, but the bank never resumed large-scale purchases. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
Luke Gromen:
Luke Gromen in this video. More or less confirms our recent discussions.
| 1.5K likes, 63 comments. “Why U.S. Treasury’s Bond Market Intervent… |
 The Monetary Matters Networkyoutu.be |
Attachments area
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE//KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT/285 AND LAST WEEK 283
285:
5. COMMODITY REPORT: COKING COAL/INDIA
Coking Coal Prices Surge 25%, Squeezing India’s Steelmakers
Thursday, Aug 20, 2026 – 08:55 PM
Submitted By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com
Indian steelmakers are reeling from a jump in coking coal prices this year that is squeezing their margins and delaying capacity expansion in the steelmaking industry, analysts and industry executives tell Reuters.
India relies on imports for as much as 95% of its coking coal, or metallurgical coal, demand. Metallurgical coal is a grade of coal that is one of the essential raw materials in the steelmaking process. Also known as met coal, this type of coal contains more carbon, less ash and less moisture than thermal coal, which is used for electricity generation.
With India relying on coking coal imports for nearly all its demand, the supply disruptions this year and the surging prices have pressured Indian steel makers.
The price of premium coking coal freight on board (FOB) in Australia surged by 25% in the first seven months of this year compared to last year due to a series of supply disruptions, Banmeet Khurmi, metallurgical coal and coke market service lead at Sydney-based consultancy CRU told Reuters.
The price increase has been the result of slower ramp-up of new mines, higher prices due to the Iran war, supply disruptions at key producer Australia, and the deadly coal mine explosion in China’s Shanxi province that killed more than 80 people in the worst Chinese mining accident in years.
“Steelmaking coal prices strengthened from CY2025 levels as strong Indian import demand and supply disruptions tightened an otherwise balanced seaborne market,” mining giant BHP said in its Economic and commodity outlook this week.
India has expanded its steelmaking capacity to about 220 Mtpa in the financial year 2026, up 10% year-on-year, and is targeting 500 Mtpa by 2047, much of which will be blast furnace based, according to BHP.
Yet, analysts say that coking coal costs for Indian steelmakers are expected to remain elevated at least through the second half of the year amid supply losses from China and Australia. And the Indian industry will pay the higher costs of the key steel-making commodity without the ability to raise prices because of the Chinese competition, executives told Reuters.
END
COMMODITIES: COMMODITIES IN GENERAL
JEFF CURRIE:
“Get Long And Buckle Up”: Jeff Currie Says Commodity Bull Market Entering Next Leg
Thursday, Aug 20, 2026 – 06:00 PM
The breadth of the commodity advance is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
Quantix Commodity Index
Diesel crack spreads have surged above $100, copper is trading above $14,000 a ton in London, gold and silver are accelerating amid US Treasury market intervention, and the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index is surging higher. At the same time, the dollar weakened sharply following Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s intervention this week, providing an additional tailwind to the commodity complex.
According to veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie, the convergence of tight physical markets, currency debasement, and policy intervention represents the hallmark of a structural commodity bull cycle.
Currie, the former Goldman Sachs commodities chief and now co-chair of Abaxx Markets, wrote in a ten-post thread on X that commodities are the clear winners as physical bottlenecks materialize around the world and Treasury market interventions add to those tailwinds.
Currie began the thread:
Wake up, folks. Commodities are telling you something, and yesterday the Treasury confirmed it.
Scarcity in the physical world. Repression in the financial one. Scarcity pushes prices up. Repression holds yields down. The gap between them is the debasement.
Commodities are the only asset class that wins on both sides. The structural case for commodities has been turbo charged.
Underinvestment, deglobalization and electrification all pushing markets like diesel cracks and copper to new highs.
Meanwhile the chokepoints are increasing, from Hormuz to the Red Sea, the Rhine, the Panama Canal, the Black Sea grain corridor and Russian refining capacity. It is becoming increasingly apparent that not a single one of those is reachable by anything in Washington’s toolkit whether it be caused by war or weather.
The illusion of abundance is likely behind us. I said as much on CNBC this Monday, and I got long gold, silver and agriculture last week.
Here’s a summary of Currie’s bull thesis for commodities:
1. Bond market intervention: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled long-bond buybacks one day after the 30-year yield hit 5.32%, its highest level since 2007, and only two weeks after the quarterly schedule was released. Currie says this is the last lever after a sequence of interventions: SPR draws that reduced inventories below 300 million barrels, dollar backstops for foreign holders in Japan and the Gulf, and FX intervention involving the euro and yen for the first time since 1998. The market reaction was immediate: Gold rose 4% to $4,510, silver gained 5%, and the Quantix Commodity Index reached an all-time high.
2. Stop watching Brent and WTI: The economy runs on gasoline and diesel. That consumption-weighted basket is around $165 versus $85 WTI. Inflation breakevens and the bond market are reading the wrong screen. Watch the next three CPI prints.
Related:
3. It’s all about the crack spread: Diesel cracks settled above $100 per barrel for the first time ever, reaching $102.20. That is four to six times the normal range, with records set in five of the last six sessions. The cause is a refining shortage, with global runs down around 5 million barrels per day because of Ukrainian strikes on Russian plants, Iranian attacks on Middle Eastern facilities, and chronic underinvestment. Crude can drift while refined products print records.
4. Treasury supply problem: Foreign holdings fell in June, led by Japan, China, and the UK. The July deficit reached $432 billion, interest costs hit $1.1 trillion, and debt is approaching $40 trillion, while hyperscaler AI-capex issuance is competing for the same pool of savings. The marginal buyer is waiting for higher yields. Yesterday’s buyback represents a managed, failing auction.
5. Broken feedback loop: Normally, a commodity spike forces yields higher, followed by demand destruction and self-correction. Repression has cut the brake line. Scarcity feeds inflation, repression prevents the response, and the absence of a response amplifies the scarcity bid.
6. Diesel underpins everything: “Every other commodity is dirt plus diesel.” Containers, tractors, locomotives, mine trucks, and fertilizer all depend on diesel. The energy input sets the floor for metals, grains, and other commodities. This explains why the QCI can reach an all-time high while crude remains $30 below its peak. Corn is already up 10% on the week. Pass-through into trucking, food, and producer prices is just beginning.
7. Refining problem: There are too many crude barrels and not enough refining capacity. The possible resolution paths include demand destruction through high product prices, crude rebalancing as the current glut remains partly MoU-related, or a recovery in refining activity. If runs recover and refiners bid for the missing 5 million barrels per day of feedstock, the shortage will migrate upstream, causing crude to rally as cracks compress. The net cost to consumers stays high either way. There is no SPR for diesel or gasoline. Bears have been promising supply for more than two years, while the petroleum total-return index has doubled and retail prices remain near all-time highs.
8/9. Widening chokepoints and El Niño: Hormuz has been constrained for six months, Russian refining remains under sustained Ukrainian attack, the Red Sea still requires a detour, the Rhine is at a record low amid heat waves, and the Panama Canal’s allowable draft has fallen to 47.5 feet. In the Black Sea, all three Novorossiysk terminals are shut, leaving 97% of Azov-Black Sea export capacity offline during peak season. Simultaneously, the USDA cut its US corn-yield estimate to 180.7 bushels per acre and reduced ending stocks by 15%. Food has joined fuel. A record El Niño probability, including NOAA’s 81% chance of a very strong event by year-end, adds further stress through drier conditions in Panama, weaker Asian monsoons, and pressure on Brazil’s planting window. The system has no redundancy left.
10. Conclusion: Scarcity is repricing the numerator, while repression is debasing the denominator. Own what benefits from both: product markets, grains, and freight for the scarcity leg, and gold for the debasement leg. Gold is at $4,510 versus the earlier January high of $5,600 referenced above. The bond market will spend the next six months discovering what product markets already know. Expect more volatility and higher highs across more markets.
Currie concluded by saying, “Get long and buckle up: the next leg of the ride will see more vol with higher highs across more markets.”
END
COMMODITY ZINC
HSBC Warns Global Zinc Market Is Flashing Signs Of Tightness
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 08:00 AM
HSBC’s Global Commodity Team warned Thursday that the zinc market is flashing warning signs of extreme tightness:
Global zinc mine supply remains tight: HSBC’s Global Commodity Team expects global mine supply to fall 2.1% y-o-y to 12.5mt in 2026, driven mainly by lower production in Latin America.
The zinc market is expected to be slightly tight in 2026e, driven by a modest recovery in demand in Europe and North America amid supply disruptions at smelters and mines.
Overall, concentrate supply remains tight, and there have been smelter disruptions as well. Zinc demand has held up.
Here’s where the physical tightness is emerging: Zinc for immediate delivery on the London Metal Exchange traded at a premium of as much as $132.37 a ton over three-month futures Thursday, the widest backwardation this year.
The spread signals intensifying competition for readily available metal in warehouses. Benchmark zinc rose 1.1% to $3,802 a ton earlier today, putting it on course for a fifth weekly gain and its highest close in four years.
Analysts from Chinese brokerage Jinrui Futures Co. wrote in a note, “There are still concerns about overseas supply disruptions in zinc,” adding, “So the driving forces for the relative strength of the LME price continue to exist, together with heightened volatility around macroeconomic sentiment.”
Beyond zinc, veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie wrote in a series of X posts Thursday that the convergence of tight physical markets, currency debasement and policy intervention represents the hallmark of a structural commodity bull cycle.
Quantix Commodity Index
Currie told his followers to “Get long and buckle up: the next leg of the ride will see more vol with higher highs across more markets.”
END
COMMODITY NICKEL:”
Pennies Have Been Abandoned, Now What Will Be Done With Nickels?
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 06:30 AM
The United States government minted its final penny in November of 2025. This came after fiat money inflation succeeded in depriving pennies of nearly all their value. Pennies are still circulating, but it is increasingly common for stores to round cost totals to avoid giving pennies in change.
Also, people seeing that the metal content of their pennies is worth more than the face value are deciding that it is better to store pennies in a jar than to spend them.
The same issues that caused the US government to give up on pennies may soon encourage it to make a major change in regard to nickels.
In an August of 2025 article, I noted that each nickel valued at five cents was costing almost 14 cents to produce. What would the government do in regard to nickels? I suggested two likely options:
The writing seems to be on the wall for nickels. As their metallic value and production costs further and further exceed their face value, there will be more pressure to make changes in nickels’ composition to significantly reduce their cost of production.
Alternatively, the government may, as is being done with the penny, just stop making new nickels.
With penny production ended, it looks like nickel production may soon have a shakeup as well, though one that could buy nickels some time.
Two different versions of the Common Cents Act passed this summer, one in the United States House of Representatives (HR 3074) and the other in the Senate (S 1525).
Both legislative bodies will need to agree on the same bill before it can be sent on to the president for consideration.
Something the two bills have in common is permitting changing the composition of nickels from 75 percent copper and 25 percent nickel to portions to be determined of zinc inside and nickel outside.
The bills specify the composition change must reduce the cost of production of the coins and, “to the greatest extent practicable” have “a minimal adverse impact on machines designed to accept coins.“
Such a change for nickels would mirror what happened in the early 1980s with pennies, when newly minted pennies started being 97.5 percent zinc instead of the prior 95 percent copper. The resulting cost savings helped keep penny production going for over forty more years.
Will the US government keep minting nickels for another 40-plus years, or will inflation be so strong that the government much sooner sends the nickel off to the same fate the penny met last year?
END
COMMODITY: SILVER
Silver Up 19% in August, Gold RIPS Through $4,640, Is $5,000 Next
by Blue Line Futures
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 7:12
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END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.48 PTS OR 0.04%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 308.51 PTS OR 1.20%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 238.00 PTS OR 0.36%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.12%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7206
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7187 Oil DOWN TO 86.52 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 93.23 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7206 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7189 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 6.7206
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.7189
1.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 308.51 PTS OR 1.20%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 238.00 PTS OR 0.36%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL DOWN TO 86.52
BRENT; 93.23
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN 0 BASIS PTS TO 98.64// EURO RISES TO 1.1694 UP 7 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.887 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 158.76… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.066 UP 4 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP (6.7240) AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.7246
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA. CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. GOVERMENT ASKED JAPAN PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE FUNDS TO BUY MORE JAPANESE BONDS AND REPATRIATE ALL FOREIGN BONDS.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and UP for Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields LOWER on all fronts in the EU German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +3.2445/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN AT 4.060/ SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.687%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.904%
3j Gold at $4583.50/Silver at: 69.80 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 74/ 100 roubles/83.01
3m oil (WTI) into the 86 dollar handle for WTI and 93 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 158.76 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.887% UP 2 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS TO BE REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 4.066 UP 4 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.7998 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9354
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.694 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 5.00%
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.251 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.185 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 48.07 UP 11 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.0526 DOWN 2 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.7977 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.757 UP 6 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.355 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Rise On Opex Day As Yields Stabilize; Bitcoin Almost Tags $80,000
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 08:34 AM
US futures rebound from Thursday’s slump, and trade at session highs on. As of 8:15am ET, S&P 500 futures were 0.4% higher with Nasdaq 100 contracts up 0.6%, while Bitcoin headed for its best week in more than three years, rising just shy of $80,000 before reversing. S&P 500 futures jerked higher and yields extended declines as oil edged lower shortly after 7am ET on this headline: *IRAN’S PRESIDENT SAYS BETTER TO END WAR TODAY WITH DIGNITY:ISNA, and while the market erroneously viewed this as a sign of de-escalation, he has made many similar comments in the past. Among Iranian officials, Pezeshkian has long been one of the most vocal proponents of ending the war with the US through diplomacy. In any case, tech is again making headlines, with Broadcom in talks with lenders to raise as much as $100 billion in an off balance sheet SPV financing deal that would benefit Anthropic and other companies. Pre-market, Mag 7 are all higher led by META (+0.9%) and TSLA (+1.1%). Today is the monthly option expiration day so expect low volume volatility around key pin levels. TSY yields are down 1-2bps across the curve although the 10Y remains just around 4.70%. The slide in the greenback is continuing, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.3% and at a three-month low. Commodities are mixed: base metals ad ags are all lower, while gold is 1.6% higher this morning; oil is unchanged. Overall, the overnight news flow was mostly quite as investors are waiting for today’s Global PMI release. Today’s US economic data calendar includes Bloomberg US economic survey for August, and S&P Global US manufacturing, services and composite PMIs. No Fed speakers are scheduled for the session
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Tesla +1.3%, Meta +0.7%, Alphabet +0.7%, Amazon +0.6%, Nvidia +0.5%, Apple +0.1%, Microsoft +0.1%)
- Cryptocurrency-linked stocks are rallying as Bitcoin rises, putting it on track for its best weekly gain in more than two years. Strategy (MSTR) climbs 8%, Coinbase (COIN) rises 5%.
- Mining stocks are rising as gold is on track for a third weekly gain after the US Treasury’s unexpected ramp-up in buybacks of long-dated government debt underscored concerns about its burden. Newmont (NEM) rises 3%.
- Flowers Foods (FLO) falls 4% after the maker of Wonder Bread cut its adjusted earnings-per-share forecast for the full year.
- O-I Glass (OI) rises 5% after Citi upgraded the packaging products company to buy, saying shares appear to be “meaningfully oversold.”
- OSI Systems (OSIS) falls 13% after the medical device maker’s forecast for fiscal 2027 revenue fell short of the average analyst estimate.
- Parsons Corp. (PSN) rises 2% after Baird upgraded the IT services company to outperform, saying guidance looks conservatively set.
- NetEase ADRs (NTES) rise 6% after the company’s core gaming business was seen as resilient and forecast to keep growing steadily.
- Ross Stores (ROST) climbs 8% after the off-price retailer boosted its earnings per share forecast for the full year.
In other corporate news, Samsung Electronics said it expects to return as much as 110 trillion won ($79 billion) to shareholders this year, joining rival SK Hynix in handing investors a chunk of the windfall generated by the AI rush. Anthropic PBC expects to match or beat the size of SpaceX’s record-setting initial public offering, according to Bloomberg. SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile are among companies expressing interest in acquiring a swath of 800 MHz-band spectrum held by Grain Management that’s valuable for providing wireless phone services directly from space. Virtu Financial is said to be considering a potential sale of its agency brokerage and technology division to free up capital to invest in its core market making operation. Nvidia is in early discussions with the Korean AI chip designer Rebellions about possible collaborations. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA is seeking to buy two separate banks for a combined price of €34 billion ($40 billion) as it wants to prevent being taken over by rival Intesa Sanpaolo SpA. Broadcom is in talks with a group of lenders to raise as much as $100 billion in debt for an AI chip financing deal that will benefit Anthropic PBC and other companies, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
After days of swings that saw long-dated yields hit their highest levels in decades, Treasuries were little changed on Friday. Brent crude struggled for direction, while gold hit the highest level since May. Investors are now assessing the fallout from a week that saw bond yields spike on worries about inflation and spendthrift governments, a surge that prompted the Treasury to intervene to curb long-dated borrowing costs. They are now awaiting a promised new initiative from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent aimed at fiscal consolidation. “Equity markets are vacillating between concerns about the tech sector and rising bond yields, though today, both seem to have declined,” said Joachim Klement, a strategist at Panmure Liberum. “Fact is that the US Treasury can do little if anything to turn the trend in long-term bond yields for good.”
The surprise decision by the Treasury Department to increase its repurchase program this week “sent the clear message to investors that rising yields matter now,” notes JonesTrading chief strategist Mike O’Rourke. “While the Treasury market has been soft since the election, we do not view it as dire. The Treasury drawing attention to it may turn it into a problem,” O’Rourke adds.
Bitcoin rallied as much as 9.4% and headed for its best weekly advance since 2023. A short squeeze triggered by Bessent’s midweek announcement of bigger buybacks of long-dated bonds remains a major driver of the gains.
In hedge funds, Hamza Lemssouguer’s Arini Capital Management is said to have lost roughly 8% in July on soured credit bets. The drawn out Evergrande saga underscores the inherent perils of short selling, said Andrew Left.
Nearly $29 billion flowed into US equity funds in the week through Aug. 19, the largest inflow in three weeks, according to BofA’s Michael Hartnett who said if US intervention in the bond market fails to “drag 30-year yield below 5%,” that would fuel a slump in the dollar and cause asset allocation to shift to short risk, short leverage and short cyclicals into midterms.
Stronger-than-expected manufacturing data helped pushed the the Stoxx 600 up 0.1% and snapped a seven-day losing streak for European equities, the longest in a decade. Still, the Stoxx 600 is less than 2% below its record high, and Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan remain among the most optimistic about the region’s prospects, a Bloomberg survey showed. “Europe has done much better than almost everybody would have expected at the outset of this year,” said Sharon Bell, senior European equity strategist at Goldman Sachs. “There’s been so much attention on a handful of companies in the US and Asia that I just don’t feel Europe has had its proper due.” Here are the biggest movers Friday:
- Nibe shares gained as much as 10%, the most since May, after the Swedish heating and climate solutions group posted strong earnings, that SB1 Markets predicted could trigger single-digit upgrades to consensus estimates
- Siegfried shares rose as much as 9.3%, briefly hitting their highest level since February, after the maker of active pharmaceutical ingredients delivered results ahead of expectations in the first half
- Bavarian Nordic shares rose as much as 9.1%, the most since July 2025, after the Danish vaccine maker boosted its Ebitda margin forecast for the full year and announced a new share buyback program
- Domino’s Pizza Group shares rose as much as 4% after Shore Capital upgraded its recommendation on the UK franchise of the world’s biggest pizza company to buy from hold.
- Hunting Plc shares fell as much as 20%, the most in four years, after the energy services provider cut its full-year profit guidance by 7%
- Straumann shares fell 3.5% after being downgraded to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank, which says increasing risks and the CEO transition “cloud the outlook” for the Swiss dental implant maker
- CTS Eventim shares slid as much as 9.5% after reporting results for the second quarter
Asian stocks advanced as heavyweight Samsung Electronics’ plan to return some of its windfall AI profits to shareholders lifted the technology sector. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1%, with chipmakers among the biggest contributors. Samsung plans to return up to 110 trillion won ($79 billion), in what would be one of the company’s most significant capital-return initiatives. Benchmarks advanced in South Korea, Hong Kong, mainland China and Taiwan. Samsung’s payout plan follows SK Hynix’s announcement of a $29 billion buyback. Hopes for more AI-fueled shareholder returns have been a bright spot amid mounting concerns over rising bond yields and fading prospects for a US-Iran peace deal. The MSCI Asia index is down 0.3% for the week, poised to snap four-straight weeks of gains.
In FX, the dollar headed for its worst week this month before US manufacturing PMI data that may give investors more insight into the health of the world’s biggest economy. A Bloomberg gauge tracking the dollar against peers fell 0.3% to its lowest level since May 12 as it continued to face a backlash from investors after Wednesday’s announcement that the US Treasury would boost purchases of longer-dated government bonds. USD/JPY drops 0.4% to 158.36; Japan’s consumer price index excluding fresh food rose 1.8% in July from a year earlier, accelerating for a second month. EUR/USD on course for a third daily advance and a fourth weekly gain, for the first time since April 2025. GBP/USD rises as much as 0.3% to 1.3676; Britain’s private sector expanded at the fastest pace in four months, as sunny weather and a strong service sector prompted households and businesses to turn on the spending taps. Japan’s benchmark Topix pared an earlier loss to flip to gains, finding support from bank stocks and the marine transportation sector. “If you look at the sectors, money is still flowing into areas such as resources and domestically-oriented stocks,” said Shuutarou Yasuda, a market analyst at Tokai Tokyo Intelligence Laboratory.
In rates, treasuries opened higher in a belly-led move; 30-year USTs underperformed with yields about 1bp lower at 5.24%. Wings of the curve are lagging ahead of US services and manufacturing reports. Choppy trading session overnight with oil prices lower and UK gilts and European front-ends outperform Treasuries. US yields higher by less than 0.5bps across belly, with the 2-year yield slightly lower and 30-year unchanged. 2/10’s and 2/30s are flatter by around 0.5bps vs. Thursday close. US 10-year yields trade around 4.70%, richer by 1bp on the day with bunds slightly and gilts up 1 bp in the sector. Market pricing for Federal Reserve rate hikes was steady ahead of US PMI data, September OIS around 9bps of a rate hike priced. IG dollar issuance slate is quiet. On Thursday three companies raised a combined $3.25 billion in the US investment-grade bond market. Next week is expected to be light for issuance, before the seasonal rush begins after Labor Day
“As the buyback announcement effect fades, we expect yields to resume their upward drift and the curve to maintain a steepening bias,” fixed-income strategists at Societe Generale SA wrote in a Thursday note
In commodities, WTI futures lower by around 1.1%, and have been trading below Thursday’s close during the overnight session. Brent crude futures are down 0.5% but on track for a roughly 5% rise this week as the ongoing Middle East conflict drives prices higher. The dollar’s loss is supporting gold, up 1.5% and briefly trading on a $4,600/oz handle for the first time since mid-May. The rally in Bitcoin has garnered further momentum, up over 7% and closing in on the $80k mark.
Today’s US economic data calendar includes Bloomberg US economic survey for August, and S&P Global US manufacturing, services and composite PMIs. No Fed speakers are scheduled for the session. Next week’s key events include Nvidia earnings and the Jackson Hole symposium. Investors will also be focusing on a heavy slate of results in Asia, including the first report from newly public chipmaker CXMT.
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- Treasury secretary Scott Bessent’s bid to prop up the US bond market has been dismissed by investors as a “band-aid on a bullet hole”, as concerns mount over Washington’s $40tn debt burden and smoldering inflation. FT
- The market is treating the Treasury’s buyback announcement as a pure dollar negative, and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech next week at Jackson Hole could be the catalyst for another round of greenback weakness: BBG
- Broadcom Inc. is in talks with a group of lenders to raise as much as $100 billion in SPV debt for an AI chip financing deal that will benefit Anthropic PBC and other companies. BBG
- Surging healthcare costs are walloping U.S. workers, and they will only worsen next year. For 2027, employers may be facing the biggest health-insurance increase in at least two decades. WSJ
- China will roll out additional fiscal policy measures in response to economic developments, Vice Finance Minister Liao Min said on Friday, as growth slows in the world’s second-biggest economy. China will maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies and plan and allocate fiscal resources over a longer time horizon, Liao told a press conference. RTRS
- Ever since President Trump’s return to office, America’s allies have been fretting about Washington’s intentions. Now, after the inconclusive war against Iran has eroded U.S. weapons stockpiles and laid bare the limits of American hard power, they also worry about American capabilities. WSJ
- Japan’s consumer inflation picked up last month as the energy shock caused by the Middle East conflict rippled out across goods, firming expectations that the next interest-rate hike is around the corner. WSJ
- Samsung Electronics expects to return as much as $80 billion to shareholders this year, joining rival SK Hynix in sharing the AI windfall and fueling optimism across the tech sector. Nasdaq futures led gains. BBG
- Unprecedented shareholder-return plans by South Korea’s two chipmaking giants are emerging as a key swing factor for the won, potentially extending its recent rally if the firms tap local currency markets to fund the payouts: BBG
- Eurozone flash PMIs were solid in Aug, with manufacturing coming in at 52.8 (vs. the Street 51.8) and services at 51.7 (vs. the Street 51.5), as the economy demonstrated healthy growth and easing inflation pressure. S&P
- Britain posted a surprise budget deficit in July, underscoring the fragile state of the public finances as Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey begins to draw up his crucial autumn budget: BBG
- Bitcoin topped $78,000, on track for its best week in more than three years. BBG
- September and October in midterm election years is when volatility picks up and S&P returns fade … and that’s usually followed by a post-event bounce: Goldman
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mixed as the region attempted to shrug off the broadly negative handover from Wall Street, where risk sentiment was dampened amid a rebound in yields and Walmart’s weak sales growth. ASX 200 traded with mild losses amid another deluge of earnings and mostly softer flash PMI data. Nikkei 225 retreated at the open but is well off today’s worst levels, with participants digesting the latest inflation data from Japan, which mostly matched estimates and remained below the 2% price target, but accelerated from the previous and could support the case for further BoJ rate hikes. KOSPI clawed back early losses with price action driven by the tech heavyweights, with SK Hynix considering building a memory chip plant in Japan’s Miyagi prefecture and with Samsung Electronics expected to announce a KRW 100tln shareholder return plan today. In addition, the comments from BoK’s newly appointed Senior Deputy Governor Kwon were less hawkish than his predecessor, in which he stated that cautious and flexible policy decisions are needed. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat mixed, with the Hong Kong benchmark in the green and its biggest movers driven by recent earnings releases, while the mainland struggled for direction despite China’s Vice Finance Minister flagging incremental policies and the PBoC resuming 7-day reverse repo operations for the first time in more than a week.
Top Asian News
- China’s Vice Finance Minister Liao said they will roll out additional fiscal policy measures in response to economic developments. Liao added that a greater share of fiscal spending will be directed towards households and consumption.
- PBoC reportedly to “survey” some mutual funds regarding long-dated bonds, sources suggested.
- Japan’s Finance Ministry is considering setting an assumed interest rate at 3.8% for calculating debt servicing costs in the FY27/28 budget request, Nikkei reported.
- Japanese PM Takaichi said an economy that is growing will experience a certain level of inflation. Japan has the lowest inflation among G7 nations due in part to the effect of government steps.
- Japan’s LDP cabinet reshuffle is likely to occur in the latter half of September, Kyodo reported citing sources. Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara is expected to retain their position
European bourses begin the final trading session of the week with broad gains, with the blue chip EuroStoxx 50 set to break its 5-day losing streak. Volumes remain light as the Summer season. On the data front, despite mixed French and German PMIs, the EZ figure printed stronger-than-expected across the board, with clear strength in the manufacturing sector. Commentary by S&P highlighted the effect of the heatwave on the services sector. For the ECB, S&P stated that the hawkish bias should remain giving the solid Q3 GDP growth, renewed hiring and elevated inflation. Sectors highlight the positive bias. Basic Resources is the clear outperformer, given the resurgence of precious metals (spot gold +1.5%). Construction and Autos round out the outperformers. To the downside is Health Care, with Media and Financial Services completing the sector laggards.
Top European News
- ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (Jul): 1-year inflation expectation: 2.9% (prev. 3%), 3-year inflation expectation: 2.7% (prev. 2.8%), 5-year inflation expectation: 2.4% (prev. 2.4%).
- European Negotiated Wage Growth (Q2) 2.44% (Q/Q Rev. 2.56%, Prev. 2.48%).
- Germany’s VDMA said German Machinery exports fell 0.8% Y/Y in H1’26. Geopolitical crises, tariffs, and weak demand in certain countries are collectively weighing on foreign trade in the machinery sector.
- UK Chancellor Healey has been warned by investors and analysts to limit budget borrowing and not to relent in efforts to reduce the UK’s fiscal deficit amid bond sell-off, according to FT.
FX
- G10s are entirely firmer against the Buck with Antipodeans the clear outperformers after China signalled further fiscal measures; CAD and NOK helped by oil prices which eke gains.
- DXY sits at the lower end of its 98.56-98.84 range, with the recent move lower coinciding with the gradual downside seen in global bond yields. In the prior session, Buck saw some modest weakness after Bessent hinted at further measures to temper yields, action which was reversed through the US afternoon, but an area which DXY has returned to this morning.
- As expected, July’s UK Retail metrics were weak, echoing the BRC monitor for the same period. And despite the 3M commentary around the weather, the ongoing heatwave and end of the World Cup appear to have hit activity. For the BoE, the print does not change the narrative, and instead we look to Flash PMIs later today. Cable saw around 8 pips of downside after the data, action which was swiftly pared in choppy trade. Flash PMIs failed to spur a reaction, despite broadly printing further into expansionary territory. With GBP/USD breaching the resistance at 1.3654, chartists will be focused on the next resistance high at 1.3712.
- EZ flash PMIs supported the bullish EUR bias today as figures indicating solid third quarter GDP growth, a return to hiring by companies for the first time this year, and inflation remaining elevated by historical standards. EUR/USD looks to Thursday’s 1.1710 high, thereafter, resistance around 1.1750.
- Antipodeans outperform after China’s Vice Finance Minister pledged to roll out additional fiscal policy measures, remarks which follow similar rhetoric from July’s Politburo meeting. Attention will be on further measures to be released in the coming days, which could continue to help the Antipodes. AUD and NZD each firmer by 0.6% against the Buck, with Aussie looking to 0.72, Kiwi eyeing 0.5980, thereafter 0.60.
Fixed Income
- Global fixed benchmarks are mixed this morning, but with price action tentative and trading on either side of the unchanged mark. Earlier action was muted, though US30yr has been gradually falling as the morning progressed. The US 30yr resides at 5.23% vs yesterday’s peak at 5.26% and off near-term highs at 5.33%.
- USTs (+3 ticks) hold within a very narrow 108-14 to 108-17+ range. The lack of news flow and the ongoing summer lull have led to thin ranges, but later markets will have US PMI metrics to digest, as well as an appearance from President Trump. Elsewhere, the US10yr (4.68%) also moves lower this morning, lacking a clear catalyst. A factor which has led to a decline in the USD, whilst spot gold and Bitcoin have moved to highs.
- Bunds (+2 ticks) are also trading steady this session. The European benchmark has had regional and EZ-wide PMI metrics to digest this morning, whereby the French and German releases were subject to poor Services components, whilst Manufacturing topped expectations.
- Elsewhere in Europe, the EZ Negotiated Wage Growth (Q2) figure fell from the prior, which will be welcomed by policymakers at the ECB – but unlikely to push away calls for a September hike. On the inflation front, the latest ECB SCE saw 1- and 3-year expectations fall from the prior.
- Gilt (-4 ticks) price action essentially echoes the above. UK Retail Sales were weak, whilst the PMIs mildly topped expectations. The accompanying report, “the data suggest the Bank of England looks likely to keep a hawkish bias but will stay cautious, holding off any rate hikes until the growth and inflation trajectories become clearer”. The release saw downticks of c. 7 ticks, but this proved fleeting.
Commodities
- WTI and Brent futures trade on a softer footing amid a pullback from yesterday’s surge, and as geopolitical headlines quieten down, for now, heading into the weekend. Major updates have been light this morning. Reports via the Jerusalem Post suggested security officials see a lower near-term risk of an expanded war with Iran, with Trump’s new economic sanctions intended to buy time until after the US midterms. Meanwhile, the report added that Israel is increasing military preparedness in case strikes resume. Near-term catalysts remain dependent on US-Iran developments, with the next inflection points likely coming from any surprise weekend military action, Iran’s response to US economic pressure, or any updates on diplomacy.
- WTI Oct currently resides around session lows in a USD 85.95-86.94/bbl range, after printing USD 85.23-87.69/bbl range yesterday. Brent Oct sits in a USD 92.97-94.00/bbl range after printing a USD 91.47-94.71/bbl range yesterday. Dutch TTF, conversely, keeps rising, with European storage replenishment also on traders’ minds. Dutch TTF has risen to a current high above EUR 66.50/MWh from levels under EUR 65/MWh earlier this morning.
- Metals are higher across the board and are cheering continued weakness in the USD, with woes for the Buck this week compounded by the mid-week US Treasury buyback announcement. Spot gold found support at its 200 DMA (USD 4,514/oz) and currently trades towards the top of a USD 4,509-4,602/oz range, with the next upside level the psychological USD 4,600/oz. Spot silver topped its 100 DMA (USD 68.50/oz) and eyes USD 70/oz to the upside in a USD 67.91-69.92/oz range. Base metals are similarly firmer across the board, with 3M LME copper towards the upper end of a USD 14,050.90-14,194.08/t.
- Offers of Iranian crude to Chinese buyers have reportedly declined, Reuters reported.
Central Banks
- ECB’s Kazaks said he sees wage growth gradually slowing and that the ECB is well placed to act, if needed.
- BoK’s new senior deputy governor Kwon said growth is improving more than expected, inflation is exceeding target and financial stability risks remain, while he added that cautious and flexible policy decisions are needed due to FX volatility and geopolitical risks. Kwon stated he doesn’t want to define himself as a hawk or dove, and will make decisions based on circumstances and data.
Geopolitics: Iran
- Security officials reportedly see a lower near-term risk of an expanded war with Iran, with Trump’s new economic sanctions intended to buy time until after the US midterms, Jerusalem Post reported. The report added that Israel is increasing military preparedness in case strikes resume.
- US President Trump said on Michael Cohen’s podcast that the US is essentially and soon controlling the strait, while he said Iran has some missiles and drones, but low capacity to build.
- US VP Vance responded that their main focus is not really on that, when asked how long Iran could withstand economic pressure, while he added that Iran is under a lot of pressure, which helps achieve our goal of making sure that Iran does not get a nuclear weapon.
- Iranian Parliament speaker Ghalibaf said Iran must draw up plans to overcome unjust sanctions in order to defeat them.
- Yemen’s Houthis said they targeted a Saudi airport and an Aramco facility.
- Yemeni Armed Forces announce the targeting Houthi heavy equipment and fortifications, according to Al Arabiya.
Geopolitics: Ukraine/Other
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Perm and a military base in Marinovka.
- North Korea reportedly fired about 10 short-range ballistic missiles in its third missile launch this month, hours after rejecting US President Trump’s overtures.
- Japan, US and South Korea held a phone call regarding North Korea missile launch.
- China and Indonesia will expand joint-military exercises and will work together to accelerate the modernisation of their respective armed forces, according to Indonesia’s Defence Minister.
US Event Calendar
- 9:45 am: Aug P S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 53.9, prior 53.9
- 9:45 am: Aug P S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 54, prior 54.6
- 9:45 am: Aug P S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 53.95, prior 54.5
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The past 24 hours saw renewed pressure in bond markets as the rally following the US Treasury’s announcement on Wednesday that it would expand its buyback operations faded. That meant 10yr Treasury yields rose by +5.8bps to 4.71%. The sell-off in rates was reinforced by the continued rise in energy prices, with Brent crude (+2.36%) advancing for a fifth consecutive session to $93.78/bbl, amid continuing concerns over US-Iran tensions. The backdrop of higher yields and oil prices led the S&P 500 (-0.87%) to post its biggest decline of August so far. Market sentiment has stabilised somewhat overnight, though yields are mostly drifting higher in Asia while the US dollar is trading near three-month lows.
Yesterday’s rise in yields came despite US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s attempts to ameliorate the market situation in an interview on CNBC. Bessent said that the buybacks previously announced could be bigger than the $4bn per issue, and that Treasury had a “big toolkit” for the treasuries market. Intriguingly, he also said that the administration would be announcing an increased focus on fiscal consolidation, “probably at the end of this week, beginning of next week”, although he provided little other detail. Long-end yields did stabilise as the session went on, but 10yr yields still fully reversed Wednesday’s rally (+5.8bps after -5.7bps Wednesday), while 30yr yields (+5.7bps and -9.2bps) reversed most of theirs.
So for now investors are viewing the Treasury’s steps more as a band-aid than a structural solution to rising yields. Indeed, as we argued in our note dedicated to the 250-year anniversary of the US (see here on the DB Research Institute), while financial repression could play some role in managing the US debt burden, it needs to be combined with genuine fiscal consolidation to have a sustained impact.
Meanwhile, the stagnant situation in the Middle East also added pressure on rates yesterday, as markets digested Trump’s threat from Wednesday night that Iran would face the “most crushing economic operation ever”. In his CNBC interview yesterday, Bessent also said that oil markets were “misinterpreting” what this economic pressure means, and that he would hold a press conference on Monday to discuss the next steps. With lingering questions of whether the US could target countries economically supporting Iran, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said “sanctions and pressure will not help resolve the issue”. As prospects of resolution remained distant, Brent crude crossed $93/bbl to its highest level since late July. Brent is a marginal -0.32% lower this morning.
With oil prices moving higher against the uncertainty, that put renewed pressure on inflation expectations, with the US 1yr inflation swap rising +16.0bps, its largest daily move since March. 5yr inflation swaps (+6.4bps) also posted a decent gain to its highest level since June at 2.51%. In turn, expectations of Fed hikes edged higher with pricing of a September hike up from 32% to 36% and 23bps of hikes being priced by year-end (+1.6bps on the day). Staying on the Fed, St. Louis Fed President Musalem reiterated his view that inflation remained too high due to shocks and persistent demand. Musalem had supported a hike in July, although he is a non-voter this year.
Yesterday’s US data also did nothing to push back against the move higher in yields, with the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook for August rising to its highest level since April 2021 (47.4 vs 41.4 prev., 24.8 exp.). Even more impressively, the capex expectations reading within the survey saw its highest reading since the 1970s. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims for the period ending in August 15 were a little lower than expected (206K vs 210k exp.), signalling that the labour market remains stable.
The bond sell off has spread to Asia overnight, with yields on 10yr Japan (+3.3bps) and Australia (+5.1bps) bonds moving higher, while 10yr Treasuries are stable. For JGBs, the move comes as Japan’s flash August composite PMI rose to a 6-month high of 53.4 (from 52.7) with both manufacturing and services activity accelerating. Meanwhile, Japan’s July national CPI rose from 1.6% to 1.9%, in line with expectations, with core-core (ex. fresh food and energy) inflation rising from 1.7% to 1.9%. The data has underlined market expectations of a September BoJ hike, with its pricing rising from 79% to 82% this morning.
We’ll also get flash PMIs across the Eurozone, UK and US today, which will give us a further sense of whether the economic resilience seen so far this summer has continued. In a sign of positive momentum continuing, the UK’s GfK consumer confidence reading (-14 vs -18 expected) released overnight unexpectedly rose to its highest level in two years.
Equities struggled yesterday in response to the unwinding of fixed income gains, with the S&P 500 (-0.87%) posting its biggest decline of August so far. The Nasdaq (-1.00%) and the Mag-7 (-1.11%) saw larger losses, even as the Philly Semiconductor index (+0.53%) reversed some of its losses from earlier this week. Sentiment also wasn’t helped by earnings from Walmart (-9.15%), whose shares slumped after the company saw its slowest US sales growth since 2020 at +2.6% yoy. So that renewed questions about the health of the US consumer amid the backdrop of high energy prices, rising interest rates and a low saving rate.
The equity mood has improved a bit overnight, with both the S&P 500 (+0.06%) and NASDAQ (+0.20%) edging higher, while Asian markets are mixed. The Nikkei (-0.30%) is underperforming, but the Hang Seng (+0.72%) and CSI 300 (+0.52%) are advancing. Korea’s KOSPI is also up +0.89% following on a +5.89% surge yesterday. That’s been helped by a +2.10% gain for Samsung Electronics as Bloomberg reported that the company plans to announce a new package of dividends and buyback of up to 110trn won ($79bn).
Over in Europe, sovereign bonds also mostly lost ground yesterday. While 10yr bunds (-0.2bps) were little changed, the 10yr OAT yield (+1.5bps) reached a new post-2008 high of 4.12%, with BTP (+1.4bps) yields also higher. Meanwhile, 10yr gilts (+2.3bps) underperformed, in part following a better-than-expected August CBI Trends survey. That said, the relatively modest bond moves came despite European gas prices (+3.36%) rising to their highest level since January 2023 at €65.50/MWh, as worries of an energy shock continued to permeate markets. Indeed, the Euro 1yr inflation swap rate also rose +3.4bps to its highest level since late July. In the equity space, Europe’s Stoxx 600 (-0.12%), DAX (-0.42%) and CAC 40 (-0.57%) declined, whilst the FTSE 100 (+0.04%) inched up.
Turning to FX, with yields rebounding, the dollar index (+0.06%) stabilised yesterday after Wednesday’s decline but is -0.14% lower overnight. Gold (+0.02%) was also little changed at $4,517/oz after having its best day since February on Wednesday. Conversely, Bitcoin (+5.25%) rose for a 4th consecutive session to its highest level since late May. It is another +2.64% higher, nearing the $75k level this morning, though that still leaves the cryptocurrency down about -15% this year.
Finally, Sweden’s Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% as expected. In the comments, the bank said that the probability of a rate hike later this year still holds. Money markets are now pricing 23bps of Riksbank hikes by December, down from 28bps the day before.
Turning to the day ahead, the data highlight will be the flash August PMIs across France, Germany, Eurozone, UK and US. Other data include July retail sales in the UK, France August business confidence, the ECB’s July consumer expectations survey, Eurozone August consumer confidence and Canada June retail sales.
1 b European opening report
US equity futures rebound as US 30yr yield slips below 5.25%; Oil flat with newsflow light – Newsquawk US Market Open
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 05:39 AM
- US equity futures rebound heading into the final trading session of the week.
- DXY returns to Thursday’s low; Antipodeans outperform, EUR and GBP muted following broadly strong PMIs.
- US 30yr yield slips below 5.25%, lifting Spot Gold and Bitcoin to key levels.
- Energy benchmarks lower amid light geopolitical newsflow.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales (Jun), US S&P Flash PMIs (Aug), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (Aug), BoC SLOS (Q2). Credit rating updates from Fitch on Poland, Moody’s on the Netherlands and Sweden.
As of 10:40BST / 05:40EDT
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses begin the final trading session of the week with broad gains, with the blue chip EuroStoxx 50 set to break its 5-day losing streak. Volumes remain light as the Summer season. On the data front, despite mixed French and German PMIs, the EZ figure printed stronger-than-expected across the board, with clear strength in the manufacturing sector. Commentary by S&P highlighted the effect of the heatwave on the services sector. For the ECB, S&P stated that the hawkish bias should remain giving the solid Q3 GDP growth, renewed hiring and elevated inflation.
- Sectors highlight the positive bias. Basic Resources is the clear outperformer, given the resurgence of precious metals (spot gold +1.5%). Construction and Autos round out the outperformers. To the downside is Health Care, with Media and Financial Services completing the sector laggards.
- US equity futures are firmer across the board. Overnight, Nvidia denied a report by The Information that it plans to ship a China-specific language processing unit by year-end, stating it has no LPU sales in China and no China-specific LPU product on its roadmap while Bloomberg reported earlier that the Co. is in prelim. talks with a South Korean chip designer over a partnership. For Broadcom, the Co. is in talks with lenders to raise over USD 60bln in senior secured debt for an AI chip financing deal.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
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FX
- G10s are entirely firmer against the Buck with Antipodeans the clear outperformers after China signalled further fiscal measures; CAD and NOK helped by oil prices which eke gains.
- DXY sits at the lower end of its 98.56-98.84 range, with the recent move lower coinciding with the gradual downside seen in global bond yields. In the prior session, Buck saw some modest weakness after Bessent hinted at further measures to temper yields, action which was reversed through the US afternoon, but an area which DXY has returned to this morning.
- As expected, July’s UK Retail metrics were weak, echoing the BRC monitor for the same period. And despite the 3M commentary around the weather, the ongoing heatwave and end of the World Cup appear to have hit activity. For the BoE, the print does not change the narrative, and instead we look to Flash PMIs later today. Cable saw around 8 pips of downside after the data, action which was swiftly pared in choppy trade. Flash PMIs failed to spur a reaction, despite broadly printing further into expansionary territory. With GBP/USD breaching the resistance at 1.3654, chartists will be focused on the next resistance high at 1.3712.
- EZ flash PMIs supported the bullish EUR bias today as figures indicating solid third quarter GDP growth, a return to hiring by companies for the first time this year, and inflation remaining elevated by historical standards. EUR/USD looks to Thursday’s 1.1710 high, thereafter, resistance around 1.1750.
- Antipodeans outperform after China’s Vice Finance Minister pledged to roll out additional fiscal policy measures, remarks which follow similar rhetoric from July’s Politburo meeting. Attention will be on further measures to be released in the coming days, which could continue to help the Antipodes. AUD and NZD each firmer by 0.6% against the Buck, with Aussie looking to 0.72, Kiwi eyeing 0.5980, thereafter 0.60.
FIXED INCOME
- Global fixed benchmarks are mixed this morning, but with price action tentative and trading on either side of the unchanged mark. Earlier action was muted, though US30yr has been gradually falling as the morning progressed. The US 30yr resides at 5.23% vs yesterday’s peak at 5.26% and off near-term highs at 5.33%.
- USTs (+3 ticks) hold within a very narrow 108-14 to 108-17+ range. The lack of news flow and the ongoing summer lull have led to thin ranges, but later markets will have US PMI metrics to digest, as well as an appearance from President Trump. Elsewhere, the US10yr (4.68%) also moves lower this morning, lacking a clear catalyst. A factor which has led to a decline in the USD, whilst spot gold and Bitcoin have moved to highs.
- Bunds (+2 ticks) are also trading steady this session. The European benchmark has had regional and EZ-wide PMI metrics to digest this morning, whereby the French and German releases were subject to poor Services components, whilst Manufacturing topped expectations.
- Elsewhere in Europe, the EZ Negotiated Wage Growth (Q2) figure fell from the prior, which will be welcomed by policymakers at the ECB – but unlikely to push away calls for a September hike. On the inflation front, the latest ECB SCE saw 1- and 3-year expectations fall from the prior.
- Gilt (-4 ticks) price action essentially echoes the above. UK Retail Sales were weak, whilst the PMIs mildly topped expectations. The accompanying report, “the data suggest the Bank of England looks likely to keep a hawkish bias but will stay cautious, holding off any rate hikes until the growth and inflation trajectories become clearer”. The release saw downticks of c. 7 ticks, but this proved fleeting.
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent futures trade on a softer footing amid a pullback from yesterday’s surge, and as geopolitical headlines quieten down, for now, heading into the weekend. Major updates have been light this morning. Reports via the Jerusalem Post suggested security officials see a lower near-term risk of an expanded war with Iran, with Trump’s new economic sanctions intended to buy time until after the US midterms. Meanwhile, the report added that Israel is increasing military preparedness in case strikes resume. Near-term catalysts remain dependent on US-Iran developments, with the next inflection points likely coming from any surprise weekend military action, Iran’s response to US economic pressure, or any updates on diplomacy.
- WTI Oct currently resides around session lows in a USD 85.95-86.94/bbl range, after printing USD 85.23-87.69/bbl range yesterday. Brent Oct sits in a USD 92.97-94.00/bbl range after printing a USD 91.47-94.71/bbl range yesterday. Dutch TTF, conversely, keeps rising, with European storage replenishment also on traders’ minds. Dutch TTF has risen to a current high above EUR 66.50/MWh from levels under EUR 65/MWh earlier this morning.
- Metals are higher across the board and are cheering continued weakness in the USD, with woes for the Buck this week compounded by the mid-week US Treasury buyback announcement. Spot gold found support at its 200 DMA (USD 4,514/oz) and currently trades towards the top of a USD 4,509-4,602/oz range, with the next upside level the psychological USD 4,600/oz. Spot silver topped its 100 DMA (USD 68.50/oz) and eyes USD 70/oz to the upside in a USD 67.91-69.92/oz range. Base metals are similarly firmer across the board, with 3M LME copper towards the upper end of a USD 14,050.90-14,194.08/t.
- Offers of Iranian crude to Chinese buyers have reportedly declined, Reuters reported.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- China’s Ministry of Finance is preparing a new round of economic talks with Canada.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (Jul): 1-year inflation expectation: 2.9% (prev. 3%), 3-year inflation expectation: 2.7% (prev. 2.8%), 5-year inflation expectation: 2.4% (prev. 2.4%).
- European Negotiated Wage Growth (Q2) 2.44% (Q/Q Rev. 2.56%, Prev. 2.48%).
- Germany’s VDMA said German Machinery exports fell 0.8% Y/Y in H1’26. Geopolitical crises, tariffs, and weak demand in certain countries are collectively weighing on foreign trade in the machinery sector.
- UK Chancellor Healey has been warned by investors and analysts to limit budget borrowing and not to relent in efforts to reduce the UK’s fiscal deficit amid bond sell-off, according to FT.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- European S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Aug) 52.1 vs. Exp. 51.7 (Prev. 52.0).
- European S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug) 52.8 vs. Exp. 51.8 (Prev. 51.9).
- European S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Aug) 51.7 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.7).
- German S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Aug) 51.0 vs. Exp. 51.3 (Prev. 51.3).
- German S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug) 54.1 vs. Exp. 52 (Prev. 52.2).
- German S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Aug) 48.5 vs. Exp. 50.1 (Prev. 49.8).
- French S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Aug) 48.8 vs. Exp. 49.5 (Prev. 49.4).
- French S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug) 51.5 vs. Exp. 50 (Prev. 49.8).
- French S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Aug) 48.4 vs. Exp. 49.8 (Prev. 49.6).
- French Business Climate Indicator (Aug) 98 vs. Exp. 98 (Prev. 97).
- UK S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Aug) 52.5 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 52.2).
- UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug) 51.5 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.9).
- UK S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Aug) 52.8 vs. Exp. 51.8 (Prev. 52.1).
- UK Retail Sales (Jul MM) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.7%).
- UK Retail Sales (Jul YY) 1.6% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 3.8%).
- UK Retail Sales ex Fuel (Jul MM) -0.9% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.9%).
- UK Retail Sales ex Fuel (Jul YY) 2.3% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 5.0%).
- UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (PSNB) ex-Banks (Jul) 1.8B vs. Exp. 0B (Rev. 12.8B, Prev. 16.0bln).
- UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Aug) -14 vs. Exp. -18 (Prev. -17).
CENTRAL BANKS
- ECB’s Kazaks said he sees wage growth gradually slowing and that the ECB is well placed to act, if needed.
- BoK’s new senior deputy governor Kwon said growth is improving more than expected, inflation is exceeding target and financial stability risks remain, while he added that cautious and flexible policy decisions are needed due to FX volatility and geopolitical risks. Kwon stated he doesn’t want to define himself as a hawk or dove, and will make decisions based on circumstances and data.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Security officials reportedly see a lower near-term risk of an expanded war with Iran, with Trump’s new economic sanctions intended to buy time until after the US midterms, Jerusalem Post reported. The report added that Israel is increasing military preparedness in case strikes resume.
- US President Trump said on Michael Cohen’s podcast that the US is essentially and soon controlling the strait, while he said Iran has some missiles and drones, but low capacity to build.
- US VP Vance responded that their main focus is not really on that, when asked how long Iran could withstand economic pressure, while he added that Iran is under a lot of pressure, which helps achieve our goal of making sure that Iran does not get a nuclear weapon.
- Iranian Parliament speaker Ghalibaf said Iran must draw up plans to overcome unjust sanctions in order to defeat them.
- Yemen’s Houthis said they targeted a Saudi airport and an Aramco facility.
- Yemeni Armed Forces announce the targeting Houthi heavy equipment and fortifications, according to Al Arabiya.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Perm and a military base in Marinovka.
OTHER
- North Korea reportedly fired about 10 short-range ballistic missiles in its third missile launch this month, hours after rejecting US President Trump’s overtures.
- Japan, US and South Korea held a phone call regarding North Korea missile launch.
- China and Indonesia will expand joint-military exercises and will work together to accelerate the modernisation of their respective armed forces, according to Indonesia’s Defence Minister.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin continues its surge higher as US yields pull back and short squeeze continues, topping just shy of USD 80k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mixed as the region attempted to shrug off the broadly negative handover from Wall Street, where risk sentiment was dampened amid a rebound in yields and Walmart’s weak sales growth.
- ASX 200 traded with mild losses amid another deluge of earnings and mostly softer flash PMI data.
- Nikkei 225 retreated at the open but is well off today’s worst levels, with participants digesting the latest inflation data from Japan, which mostly matched estimates and remained below the 2% price target, but accelerated from the previous and could support the case for further BoJ rate hikes.
- KOSPI clawed back early losses with price action driven by the tech heavyweights, with SK Hynix considering building a memory chip plant in Japan’s Miyagi prefecture and with Samsung Electronics expected to announce a KRW 100tln shareholder return plan today. In addition, the comments from BoK’s newly appointed Senior Deputy Governor Kwon were less hawkish than his predecessor, in which he stated that cautious and flexible policy decisions are needed.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat mixed, with the Hong Kong benchmark in the green and its biggest movers driven by recent earnings releases, while the mainland struggled for direction despite China’s Vice Finance Minister flagging incremental policies and the PBoC resuming 7-day reverse repo operations for the first time in more than a week.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China’s Vice Finance Minister Liao said they will roll out additional fiscal policy measures in response to economic developments. Liao added that a greater share of fiscal spending will be directed towards households and consumption.
- PBoC reportedly to “survey” some mutual funds regarding long-dated bonds, sources suggested.
- Japan’s Finance Ministry is considering setting an assumed interest rate at 3.8% for calculating debt servicing costs in the FY27/28 budget request, Nikkei reported.
- Japanese PM Takaichi said an economy that is growing will experience a certain level of inflation. Japan has the lowest inflation among G7 nations due in part to the effect of government steps.
- Japan’s LDP cabinet reshuffle is likely to occur in the latter half of September, Kyodo reported citing sources. Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara is expected to retain their position
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Japanese Core CPI (Jul YY) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.6%).
- Japanese CPI (Jul YY) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.6%).
- Japanese CPI (Jul MM) 0.4% (Prev. 0.3%).
- Japanese CPI Ex-Food and Energy (Jul YY) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.7%).
- Japanese Global Composite PMI Flash (Aug) 53.40 (Prev. 52.7).
- Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug) 55.1 vs. Exp. 55.1 (Prev. 54.5).
- Japanese Global Services PMI Flash (Aug) 52.3 (Prev. 51.2).
- Australian S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Aug) 52.5 (Prev. 53.2).
- Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug) 52.0 (Prev. 52.0).
- Australian S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Aug) 52.9 (Prev. 53.6).
- New Zealand Trade Balance (Jul) -1.9B vs. Exp. -0.175B (Prev. 0.02B).
1 c Asian opening report
Europe primed for modestly firmer open amid mixed APAC handover – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 02:19 AM
- APAC stocks were mixed as the region attempted to shrug off the broadly negative handover from Wall Street; European equity futures indicate an uneventful open.
- In FX, DXY marginally softened, and USD/JPY was choppy overnight following the mostly in-line Japanese inflation data for July.
- 10yr UST futures lingered around the prior day’s trough, Bund futures mildly retreated, and 10yr JGB futures tracked previous declines in global peers.
- Crude futures were contained overnight amid a lack of major fresh developments; spot gold resumed its recent choppy performance above the USD 4,500/oz level.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Global S&P Flash PMIs (Aug), UK Retail Sales (Jul), PSNB (Jul), EU Negotiated Wage Growth (Q2), Canadian Retail Sales (Jun), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (Aug), BoC SLOS (Q2). Credit rating updates from Fitch on Poland, Moody’s on the Netherlands and Sweden.
As of 06:15BST/01:15EDT
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LOOKING AHEAD
- Highlights include Global S&P Flash PMIs (Aug), UK Retail Sales (Jul), PSNB (Jul), EU Negotiated Wage Growth (Q2), Canadian Retail Sales (Jun), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (Aug), BoC SLOS (Q2). Credit Rating update from Fitch on Poland, Moody’s on the Netherlands and Sweden.
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IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump said on Michael Cohen’s podcast that the US is essentially and soon controlling the strait, while he said Iran has some missiles and drones, but low capacity to build.
- US VP Vance responded that their main focus is not really on that, when asked how long Iran could withstand economic pressure, while he added that Iran is under a lot of pressure, which helps achieve our goal of making sure that Iran does not get a nuclear weapon.
- US issued Iran-related designations and targeted Hezbollah with fresh sanctions, emphasising ties to the Iranian government. US OFAC also issued a Russia general license, while it issued counterterrorist sanctions and counternarcotic designations on Cuba.
- Israeli fighter jets entered southern Lebanese airspace, and reports indicated Israeli air strikes on Ali al-Taher Heights, according to Fars News.
- Israeli forces fired a shell at agricultural lands in the Quneitra countryside, Syria.
- Israeli banks are near a deal to delay the cutoff of Palestinian services as Israel’s government seeks to avert a collapse of the Palestinian Authority economy, according to Times of Israel
- Yemen’s Houthis said they targeted a Saudi airport and an Aramco facility.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were lower on Thursday, with the Russell and Dow underperforming; the latter was weighed by Walmart (WMT), which slumped following its earnings report and weak guidance. Indices closed lower across the board with negative breadth, as the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) fell around 0.7%. Sectors were also predominantly lower, with Health Care, Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary lagging. Health Care gave back some of Wednesday’s MRNA/MRK-induced gains, while Staples were weighed on by WMT. Energy and Real Estate were the only sectors to close in the green. Crude prices were firmer amid reports that the Houthis are preparing to enter a new phase of escalation against Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Rezaei said the best response to Trump’s escalation of economic warfare would be to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which legally commits Iran to maintaining a peaceful nuclear programme. US President Trump also reportedly told his team that the chances of reaching a deal with Iran are slim and ordered a freeze on talks for several weeks.
- SPX -0.87% at 7,641, NDX -0.72% at 29,213, DJI -1.32% at 52,764, RUT -1.34% at 2,992.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- Canadian PM Carney spoke with Mexican President Sheinbaum, while both sides discussed the importance of renewing the USMCA as soon as possible.
- Canadian Minister responsible for US trade said both sides are continuing to hold talks on a possible deal, while he added they are very close to a deal and continue to make progress.
- China’s Finance Ministry is preparing a new round of economic talks with Canada.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed Chair Warsh will speak at 10:00EDT/15:00BST on August 28th at Jackson Hole.
- White House said US President Trump signed a directive to help boost space launches.
- NY Governor Hochul said she has no plans to raise taxes in the coming year, but plans could change if federal aid to the state is cut, according to NYT.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mixed as the region attempted to shrug off the broadly negative handover from Wall Street, where risk sentiment was dampened amid a rebound in yields and Walmart’s weak sales growth.
- ASX 200 traded with mild losses amid another deluge of earnings and mostly softer flash PMI data.
- Nikkei 225 retreated at the open but is well off today’s worst levels, with participants digesting the latest inflation data from Japan, which mostly matched estimates and remained below the 2% price target, but accelerated from the previous and could support the case for further BoJ rate hikes.
- KOSPI clawed back early losses with price action driven by the tech heavyweights, with SK Hynix considering building a memory chip plant in Japan’s Miyagi prefecture and with Samsung Electronics expected to announce a KRW 100tln shareholder return plan today. In addition, the comments from BoK’s newly appointed Senior Deputy Governor Kwon were less hawkish than his predecessor, in which he stated that cautious and flexible policy decisions are needed.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat mixed, with the Hong Kong benchmark in the green and its biggest movers driven by recent earnings releases, while the mainland struggled for direction despite China’s Vice Finance Minister flagging incremental policies and the PBoC resuming 7-day reverse repo operations for the first time in more than a week.
- US equity futures saw rangebound trade, which provided some reprieve following recent declines.
- European equity futures indicate an uneventful open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures flat after the cash market closed 0.4% lower on Thursday.
FX
- DXY marginally softened in range-bound trade amid the absence of any major new catalysts and after marginally gaining yesterday alongside the notable rebound in long-end US Treasury yields. The latest data was encouraging, and showed continued stability in the labour market as initial claims hovered around 200k, while Philly Fed beat, in what was a strong manufacturing report, helped by significantly improved expectations of future business conditions. In terms of Fed speak, Daly noted that policy is in a good place to keep watching the data, whilst Musalem maintained the view that hiking rates now could save more aggressive action later and suggested that the Super El Niño might be the next supply shock.
- EUR/USD edged higher overnight and eyed a return to the 1.1700 handle amid a weaker dollar, while participants await a slew of flash PMI data from across the continent.
- GBP/USD rose towards yesterday’s peak and held on to the spoils following its recent reclaim of the 1.3600 level, with the attention turning to incoming data releases including UK Retail Sales.
- USD/JPY was choppy overnight after trickling beneath the 159.00 level and following the mostly in-line Japanese inflation data for July, which showed an acceleration from the previous month.
- Antipodeans outperformed as sentiment in Asia gradually improved, with both AUD and NZD shrugging off mostly weaker flash PMIs from Australia and trade data from New Zealand.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures lingered around the prior day’s trough with demand subdued after Treasury yields rose yesterday and the long-end briefly pared the post-Treasury buyback rally.
- Bund futures mildly retreated following the recent indecisive performance, while participants look ahead to PMI data from Germany and across the bloc.
- 10yr JGB futures tracked previous declines in global peers, with demand not helped by the latest Japanese inflation data, which printed mostly in line with expectations, but accelerated from the previous.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were contained overnight amid a lack of major fresh developments and with the crude benchmarks taking a breather after extending on gains yesterday as US/Iran relations showed no signs of improving, with Trump said to have told his negotiating team that the chances of an agreement with Iran have become slim and ordered a freeze on negotiations with Iran for several weeks, while Yemeni Houthis were reported to be preparing to enter a new phase of escalation against Saudi Arabia.
- Spot gold resumed its recent choppy performance above the USD 4,500/oz level
- Copper futures edged higher amid the somewhat gradual improvement in risk sentiment.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin extended its resurgence and briefly reclaimed the USD 75,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China’s Finance Ministry is to expand the scope of interest subsidies for loans to smaller private firms and it is to raise the subsidy quotas for eligible firms.
- China Vice Finance Minister noted a timely planning and introduction of incremental policies based on economic development trends, while they will maintain continuity and stability of macro policies. China also signalled a focus on stable, consistent macro policy and longer-term fiscal planning.
- BoK’s new senior deputy governor Kwon said growth is improving more than expected, inflation is exceeding target and financial stability risks remain, while he added that cautious and flexible policy decisions are needed due to FX volatility and geopolitical risks. Kwon stated he doesn’t want to define himself as a hawk or dove, and will make decisions based on circumstances and data.
- Japanese PM Takaichi plans a cabinet reshuffle in mid-to-late September, according to Yomiuri
DATA RECAP
- Japanese CPI (Jul YY) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.6%)
- Japanese Core CPI (Jul YY) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.6%)
- Japanese CPI Ex-Food and Energy (Jul YY) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.7%)
- Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug) 52.0 (Prev. 52.0)
- Australian S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Aug) 52.9 (Prev. 53.6)
- Australian S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Aug) 52.5 (Prev. 53.2)
GEOPOLITICS
OTHER
- North Korea reportedly fired about 10 short-range ballistic missiles in its third missile launch this month, hours after rejecting US President Trump’s overtures.
- China and Indonesia will expand joint-military exercises and will work together to accelerate the modernisation of their respective armed forces, according to Indonesia’s Defence Minister.
- US Secretary of State Rubio and Canada’s Foreign Minister Anand reaffirmed shared hemispheric priorities, while they discussed Arctic security and Cuba reform
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK PM Burnham reportedly plans GBP 13bln boost to foreign aid, making tax rises more likely, according to iPaper.
- UK Chancellor Healey has been warned by investors and analysts to limit budget borrowing and not to relent in efforts to reduce the UK’s fiscal deficit amid a bond sell-off, according to FT.
- UK’s largest banks renewed a warning to the government against hiking taxes on the industry as Chancellor Healey prepares to deliver his inaugural Budget in October, according to Sky News.
DATA RECAP
- UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Aug) -14 vs. Exp. -18 (Prev. -17)
2.NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA/
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA
“No Thanks!” Has A Price: Trump Guts Korea War Games, Courts Kim As The Seoul Alliance Buckles
Thursday, Aug 20, 2026 – 04:40 PM
Hours before 18,000 South Korean troops were due to kick off this year’s Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise alongside their American counterparts, President Trump pulled the rug – instructing Secretary of War Pete Hegseth to “substantially reduce the Joint Military Exercises” with Seoul. By Wednesday the allies confirmed the annual drills – the backbone of combined readiness against the North – had been chopped nearly in half, from 11 days to five, with live field-training events canceled or downgraded to computer simulations.
According to Trump, the drills are costly (with Washington footing most of the bill); the exercises send a ‘hostile and inappropriate’ signal toward a North Korea that has been “unthreatening and respectful” on his watch; and – revenge… Seoul refused to help with the war on Iran. Trump recounted asking President Lee Jae-myung whether South Korea would care to join the denuclearization of the Islamic Republic, and characterized Seoul’s answer as a breezy “No thanks!”
This sent Seoul scrambling, as Lee spent Tuesday’s cabinet meeting insisting the US alliance remains the bedrock of South Korean security, while his military worked out how to salvage an exercise that was already underway. Meanwhile, Pyongyang spent last week denouncing the drills as “a rehearsal for an aggressive war” – lobbing two ballistic missiles in the space of six days earlier this month. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrived in Seoul mid-week for security talks, presumably trying to keep a straight face.
The Drawdown That Dare Not Speak Its Name
With US-SK relations having souring over the past couple of years over the punishment of US tech giants with arbitrary fines (extortion, basically), Trump’s decision follows long-telegraphed push to shrink US Forces Korea itself. The Wall Street Journal reported back in May 2025 that the Pentagon had drafted options to pull roughly 4,500 of the 28,500 US troops off the peninsula and reposition them in Guam and elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific. While the Pentagon denied it, lawmakers freaked out and wrote a 28,500-troop floor directly into the FY2026 NDAA.
This means that the Trump administration has had to get creative: the exercises are halved under the guise of “strategic flexibility,” while the admin is repurposing USFK (United States Forces Korea) for a China-Taiwan contingency rather than a purely North Korean one, and Seoul is now under pressure to pay quite a bit more for the privilege of hosting a force whose mission increasingly isn’t about Korea at all. Lee himself has conceded that Washington’s demand for flexibility is apparently one Seoul cannot easily accept.
This Didn’t Come Out Of Nowhere
Longtime readers know the US-SK alliance has been deteriorating for well over a year. As we detailed last October, South Korea’s Fair Trade Commission has spent a decade functioning less like an antitrust regulator and more like a toll booth for American tech: an $854 million hit on Qualcomm in 2016, $177 million on Google in 2021 over Android, serial actions against Apple’s App Store – all while domestic firms Naver and Kakao have been allowed to skate despite similar actions. One study put the combined ten-year economic damage of Seoul’s tech crackdown at roughly $1 trillion, including $525 billion to the US economy.
Washington noticed. In December, as we reported, the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) abruptly scrapped a scheduled KORUS Joint Committee meeting – the main forum for managing the free-trade relationship – after Seoul kept pushing digital regulations the administration considers discriminatory, despite having signed a framework weeks earlier promising not to. And in February, the House Judiciary Committee opened a formal investigation and subpoenaed Coupang – the NYSE-listed, American-owned “Amazon of Korea” – for documents on its treatment at the hands of Korean regulators.
Then Seoul stepped on the rake again after a former Coupang employee improperly accessed phonebook-grade customer data – names and addresses – with roughly 3,000 records actually downloaded, later recovered, never sold or misused, and with no documented consumer harm. Taiwan, whose customers were swept up in the same incident, handled it the way regulators normally do: a review, a compliance plan, move on.
Seoul decided to bust Coupang’s balls. Police raided the company repeatedly; a dozen agencies launched investigations and enforcement actions, most of them having nothing to do with data security; politicians publicly vilified Coupang’s American founder; and the firm’s acting CEO – a US citizen – was dragged through days of kangaroo court hearings in which, per the committee’s account, he was denied American counsel, accused of perjury over truthful testimony, and threatened with travel bans, criminal charges, and jail.
In June, Korea’s privacy regulator hit Coupang with a $409 million fine – the largest privacy penalty in the country’s history, and more than four times the next-biggest, which had been levied on a Korean firm that exposed far more sensitive data. On July 1 – the same month Seoul lit its landmarks red, white, and blue for America’s 250th birthday – House Judiciary published its report, “Closed for Competition,” documenting officials pressuring the national pension fund to dump Coupang stock, lawmakers threatening to drive the company out of the country, and the prime minister urging regulators to pursue it “with the same determination used to wipe out mafias.”
Deport The Regulators?
Which brings us to Capitol Hill’s latest innovation. In late July, Rep. Michael Baumgartner (R-WA) – who in April led 54 House colleagues in a letter demanding Seoul stand down – introduced the No Racketeers on Our Shores Act, which would amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to deny US entry to, or deport, foreign officials “who weaponize the government to discriminate against American companies.” The bill’s fact sheet cites the Coupang case by name. In short: keep shaking down American firms, and your regulators can enjoy the view from outside the United States.
Two weeks ago, Judiciary Republicans fired off yet another letter, this time over Seoul’s new “fake news” amendment – a KMCC-enforced regime that can fine publishers with over 100,000 subscribers, and large platforms, for spreading disfavored information. The platforms that clear those thresholds – Facebook, X, Instagram, YouTube – are, conveniently, almost all American.
Trump-Kim Bromance 2.0?
Amid the chill with South Korea, the WSJ reported Tuesday that Trump is pushing aides to arrange a meeting with Kim Jong Un as soon as this fall – potentially around the November APEC summit in Shenzhen. On Wednesday Trump confirmed it himself, telling reporters he’ll meet Kim this year, describing the N. Korean leader as “well behaved,” and casually confirming Pyongyang’s arsenal at 57 “very powerful” nuclear weapons. Kim’s sister Kim Yo Jong claims to be unaware of any recent correspondence, and no date has been set.
No half-measures…
END
SOUTH KOREA
Samsung Unleashes $80 Billion Shareholder Return After SK Hynix’s “Buyback Bazooka” To Revive Memory Trade
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 07:15 AM
Days after SK Hynix unveiled a staggering 40 trillion won, or $28.6 billion, “buyback bazooka” aimed at putting a floor under its shares following a sharp six-week selloff, Samsung Electronics joined the capital-return push.
The world’s largest memory-chip maker said Friday that it plans to return as much as 110 trillion won, or $80 billion, to investors this year. The twin announcements suggest the world’s top memory companies are trying to support higher valuations and reward shareholders after memory stocks surrendered some of their blistering first-half gains.
Bloomberg reports that Samsung intends to distribute roughly half of its free cash flow, including 30 trillion won in third-quarter dividends and about 15 trillion won in share repurchases for employee compensation.
Macquarie analyst Daniel Kim summarized Samsung’s capital-return announcement:
What’s new
- Samsung Electronics (SEC) updated its much-anticipated shareholder return program today after the market close. There was no change in the committed return of 50% of cumulative FCF from 2024-26.
- Its BoD is meeting in October to confirm the earlier distribution of promised FCF. So, the 3Q26 quarterly cash dividend payment should amount to Won30tr, including the regular quarterly cash dividend of Won2.45tr.
- In late January 2027, the company should determine the remaining capital return amount, which SEC estimates at Won60-80tr, and the method of distribution.
- SEC remains on our Marquee buy list.
Why it matters
- Still formulating capital return policy. Excluding the cash dividend of Won20.9tr already paid out and the executed share buyback/cancellation of Won8.4tr, the company estimates the remaining capital to be returned to shareholders at Won90-110tr, which includes the 3Q26 Won30tr payout. This is 20-35% lower than our forecast.
- Announced only the common-share repurchase of Won15tr for employee bonuses. Separately, SEC plans to repurchase 53.3mn common shares, or 0.9% of outstanding shares, which would cost Won15tr based on today’s closing price, from 24 Aug. to 21 Nov. The repurchased shares won’t be cancelled and will be paid to employees as bonuses, so they won’t count as part of the shareholder return. Samsung preferred shareholders might be disappointed.
- Ample free cash flow to support a more progressive capital return policy. Our projection shows that its net cash position should amount to Won718tr, or 40% of its market capitalization, by year-end 2027 and Won1,358tr by year-end 2028. We expect it to generate total FCF of Won1,434tr for 2026-28E, so its balance sheet should have ample cash unless the company returns far more cash to shareholders.
- More cash dividends than share buybacks. While SK Hynix’s capital return is more skewed toward share buybacks/cancellations, we expect Samsung’s capital return to consist more of cash dividends than share buybacks. This is partly because Samsung Life (032830KS, not rated) and Samsung F&M (000810KS, not rated) are forced to trim their stakes in SEC under local regulations in the event of significant share retirements by SEC.
What now
- Memory market outlook remains bright. Samsung’s significant cash position could hurt its ROE; accordingly, we see significant upside in its capital returns over the next two years. We believe that its capital return policy should improve steadily over time. The stock is trading at 2x ex-cash 2027E EPS. Outperform.
Shares fell as much as 2.6% in post-market trading after the announcement due to a lack of clarity on how much stock Samsung would repurchase and cancel. Some analysts had anticipated total returns of around 150 trillion won.
Kim Minji, a portfolio manager at Must Asset Management, explained that “some investors have recently expected up to 150 trillion won of shareholder returns, which explains the post-market share action.”
Kang DaeKwun, chief executive officer at Life Asset Management, held views similar to those of Must Asset Management’s Kim, saying the announcement underwhelmed expectations:
- After a local media report that the size of the shareholder return would be up to 150 trillion won, the announcement of up to 110 trillion won is triggering a selloff.
- The announcement met market expectations because Samsung kept its promise to return 50% of free cash flow to shareholders.
- While the market’s attention is on the size of the shareholder return, what is more important is the supply of shares.
- While US Big Tech companies are issuing new shares, South Korea is seeing a lower supply of shares thanks to large-scale shareholder return programs.
Announcements from SK Hynix and Samsung this week show that the management teams of the world’s top memory-chip companies are concerned that momentum in the space has completely evaporated.
“The smart money is moving on,” said Alec Young, chief investment strategist at MoneyFlows, a quant-research firm. “The fact that they have given up a lot of their recent bounce in just a couple days shows that there are a lot of weak hands.”
SanDisk and Western Digital have fallen more than 30% from their peaks, while Micron and Seagate are down roughly 20%, signaling that momentum investors are rotating into other trades, such as the materials and energy stocks we pointed out earlier in the week (read here).
end
JAPAN
3. CHINA/
CHINA/IRAN/USA
China Firmly Rejects US Demand To Back Its ‘Most Crushing Economic Operation’ Against Iran
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 08:45 AM
China has firmly rejected Washington’s call to join in implementing US sanctions to “squash” Iran’s economy, pushing back against Trump administration pressure to be part of the “toughest sanctions in history” which has marked a new phase of conflict focused on extended economic warfare, as a military solution is seen as increasingly unrealistic and unlikely.
“Regarding the Iran issue, sanctions and pressure do not help resolve the problem,” Reuters quoted a representative of the Chinese Embassy in Washington as saying. The White House’s new plan is to include heavy reliance on international pressure on external countries to impose extreme isolation on the Islamic Republic.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said the same to reporters Friday in a regular briefing. “China calls on all relevant parties to take responsible measures and resolve the problem through political and diplomatic means,” he said.
Asked specifically about the latest comments of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Lin emphasized the need for all parties to take “responsible measures” in resolving the war. “China opposes illegal unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law and are not authorized by the UN Security Council,” Lin said.
Bessent had on Thursday told CNBC: “It is a one-two punch. We have the blockade (on Iran), and we are going to have the toughest sanctions in history.” He then vowed, “It is going to work in Iran and we are going to collapse this regime.”
He further invoked some (infamous) words of President George W. Bush issued to allies in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. “You are either with us, or against us,” Bessent said in the interview. “This is going to be the greatest coordinated economic isolation in the history of the world.”
Such back-and-white rhetoric is very unlikely to sway the Chinese, given also that of course they know what happened next after that original proclamation by Bush – American forces got stuck in no less than two quagmires in the Middle East, Afghanistan and Iraq, in what came to be viewed cynically as ‘forever wars’.
What’s more as the blowback in Baghdad was pretty immediate, as a key unintended consequence of the US regime change war was the ascendancy of pro-Iran Shia politicians ruling Iraq. Beijing is all too aware of the US score card in the region, even as Washington decision-makers continue ignoring the glaring lessons of recent history.
Bessent seemed perplexed at the reaction in oil prices on Thursday, while he also said that discussions with Beijing would be best done in private:
“I think oil markets are misinterpreting what this economic pressure means,” Bessent said on Thursday. Oil prices climbed to more than three-week highs on Thursday.
“We have asymmetric information, and I’m not sure why oil has popped up on this,“ Bessent said. “If we are doing the maximum economic pressure, then that means that likely there will not be a large-scale kinetic restart.”
When asked if the U.S. could target China for doing business with Iran, Bessent said many conversations were best to have in private.
“We are confident that everyone wants the Strait (of Hormuz) reopened, and for energy prices to come back down,” he continued. “Keep in mind that the Chinese get 50% (of their) energy from inside the Gulf. So it would do them a big service to get with the program.“
Still, Bessent has been busy doubling-down on Trump’s message shift this week (opting for an economic siege warfare ‘solution’ as after military strategy hasn’t gone so well)…
Tehran has been consistently saying that is is ready for a long war, whether that come in the form of more US-Israeli bombs, or else an economic siege. Even Reuters has acknowledged the obvious in its own coverage, saying “Iran has weathered punishing economic sanctions for nearly 50 years, since the Islamic Revolution of 1979.“
“Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi called Trump’s comments an attempt to divert American public opinion from domestic financial problems, including record debt and rising interest rates,” the report added.
There’s an additional important factor. At this point there’s no way that the two key UN Security Council permanent members Russia and China will sign off on any big new anti-Iran sanctions regimen brought before the United Nations.
Closer to home, the White House risks more China blowback, especially with President Xi Jinping slated to visit the US next month. Bloomberg poses the following in Friday analysis:
“Is the White House willing to prioritize this new economic warfare campaign above its China relationship? And if it chooses to, there are serious ramifications,” said Chris Kennedy, an economic statecraft analyst at Bloomberg Economics. Kennedy said the new threats are also an “admission that the US is running out of options.”
Any decision to hit China would risk worsening tensions just weeks before Trump hosts Xi for the Chinese leader’s first visit to Washington in a decade. It also raises the threat of Chinese countermeasures that could inflict pain on the US economy ahead of November midterm elections that will hinge on pocketbook issues.
Beijing has already demonstrated a willingness to push back against Trump, most notably by announcing export restrictions on rare earths that forced the White House into a climbdown from their tariff fight.
Meanwhile, more pushback against this week’s Axios report saying that large quantities of oil are moving through the Strait of Hormuz via a US Navy established ‘stealth’ corridor:
On Friday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Iran will “under no circumstances bow to bullying.” But he also struck somewhat of a conciliatory tone, perhaps signaling Iran is still open to dialogue so long as Washington is willing to compromise.
“It would be better to end the war today, now that we are strong and have dignity, with the whole world acknowledging our victory,” the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency quoted him as saying.
END
CHINA
EVERGRANDE
China Sentences Evergrande Founder To Life In Prison
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 09:45 AM
Five years after Chinese property development firm Evergrande Group collapsed under the weight of enormous debt, founder Xu Jiayin was sentenced to life in prison on Thursday.
Xu (Hui Ka Yan in Cantonese), 64, pleaded guilty in April to fundraising fraud, illegally taking public deposits, illegally extending loans, bribery, fraudulently issuing security, and misuse of funds. His sentence was handed down in Shenzhen in southern China. The court also confiscated his personal property.
Evergrande was also fined 8.82 billion yuan (US$1.31 billion), and slapped its Hengda real estate subsidiary with a 7 billion yuan (US$1.04 billion) fine.
As the Epoch Times notes further, Xu has not been seen in public since 2023, but the Shenzhen Intermediate People’s Court released photographs that show him wearing a blue shirt and flanked by two officers as the sentence was read out.
Crimes Should be ‘Severely Punished’
“The criminal acts of Evergrande Group, Hengda Real Estate, and Hui Ka Yan … involved particularly huge amounts and egregious circumstances, caused particularly significant economic losses and caused particularly serious social harm, and should be severely punished,” the court said in a statement.
State media Xinhua news agency stated that the court sentenced 56 others to prison sentences of between 22 months and 18 years for their roles in “illegally absorbing public deposits, fundraising fraud, and illegal use of funds” in relation to the Evergrande case. It did not name any of the individuals.
It was not immediately clear whether Xu had legal representatives who could comment on his behalf.
After a two-day trial in April, Xu “pleaded guilty and expressed remorse,” according to state media outlet Xinhua.
Born into poverty, Xu became Asia’s richest man, partly because of links with senior officials in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
He expanded Evergrande massively during China’s property boom between 1996 and 2019, but the company was burdened with huge debts.
Evergrande, which was China’s biggest developer, ran into financial problems in 2020 amid China’s COVID-19 crisis, and in 2021, it developed liquidity issues.
In March 2024, the company and Xu were penalized after being accused of artificially boosting its revenues by $78 billion in the two years before it defaulted on its debt obligations.
A Hong Kong court ordered Evergrande to be liquidated in 2024, and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange delisted it in 2025.
The company has defaulted on most of its $300 billion liabilities. Its problems are emblematic of a prolonged slowdown in China’s real estate sector, which has dragged down the world’s second-biggest economy.
A former steel technician, Xu founded Evergrande in 1996.
As the communist regime gradually opened up its market and eased controls, Xu, like many other Chinese, moved to Guangdong Province, where he worked as a salesperson before founding Evergrande in 1996.
In his first project, Xu borrowed 3 million yuan (about $440,000) from the bank to purchase land, then started selling homes once construction began, according to a 2010 report by People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the CCP.
Within a day, he had sold more than 300 apartments and raked in 80 million yuan (about $11.7 million), allowing him to finance the next project, according to the report.
By the end of 2009, Evergrande had dozens of projects across 25 major Chinese cities, according to the company’s official website.
He Was Once Worth $45 Billion
In 2017, Xu had a net worth of $45.3 billion, according to Forbes.
Xu stepped down as chairman of Hengda in August 2021, two months before the company defaulted on a $148 million loan, the first of many debts it was unable to repay.
The liquidation process has moved slowly. Only $255 million worth of assets were sold as of August 2025, compared with creditors’ claims totalling $45 billion.
Evergrande’s liquidators declined to comment on Xu’s sentencing.
The liquidators are trying to freeze Xu’s offshore assets and those of his ex-wife, Ding Yumei, who owns property in London and Vancouver.
Ding flew out of Hong Kong before August 2023, China’s state-controlled Tencent News reported, and her current whereabouts are unknown.
Speaking at the 2018 China Charity Awards, Xu praised the CCP and attributed everything Evergrande and he had to the regime.
Yuan Hongbing, a former professor of law at Peking University who now lives in exile in Australia, told The Epoch Times in 2023 that Xu had used political connections with Zeng Qinghong, a senior CCP official who was vice president from 2003 to 2008.
But Feng Chongyi, an associate professor in China studies at the University of Technology Sydney, told The Epoch Times this week that Xi had spent years weakening forces associated with Jiang Zemin and Zeng, who was his longtime political ally, because they once threatened Xi’s hold on power.
Reuters contributed to this report.
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
EUROPE
UK
British Protesters Jailed For Longer Than Migrant Who Sexually Assaulted Girl
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 08:15 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,
British men who protested outside an Essex asylum hotel have been locked up for far longer than the migrant whose sexual assaults on a 14-year-old girl and a woman triggered the demonstrations.
Charlie Land, 24, and Jonathan Glover, 48, received 32 months and 30 months respectively at Chelmsford Crown Court for violent disorder during the July 2025 clashes at The Bell Hotel in Epping. The Ethiopian national at the centre of it all, Hadush Kebatu, got just 12 months.
This is the latest chapter in a pattern that has already seen multiple local men handed heavier sentences than the man whose crimes set off the backlash.
Kebatu arrived in Britain on a small boat and was housed at the Bell Hotel. Within days he approached a 14-year-old girl on a bench in Epping, tried to kiss her, made sexually explicit comments, placed his hand on her thigh and later assaulted a woman who had offered help.
He was convicted of multiple sexual offences, including two counts of sexual assault, and sentenced to 12 months in September 2025. A judge described him as manipulative with a “poor regard for women” and said he posed a significant risk of reoffending.
He was later mistakenly released from HMP Chelmsford due to an administrative blunder, triggering a multi-force manhunt before he was finally deported to Ethiopia.
The protests that followed were initially peaceful. They escalated on 17 July 2025 when counter-demonstrators arrived and disorder broke out.
Video Shows Police Bussing Pro Migrant Activists To And From Epping Hotel
Police denied it at first, until footage emerged and they admitted to helping far left activists
Hundreds gathered. Police vehicles were attacked. Officers were shoved, punched and kicked. Essex Police said the overall policing operation cost more than £1.5 million.
Land was captured on drone and bodycam footage repeatedly damaging police vehicles, punching windows, kicking off wing mirrors, letting air out of tyres and climbing onto one vehicle to kick the windscreen while wearing a banned face covering. Judge Mills called him a “full and enthusiastic participant in the violent disorder” who showed “no regard” for officers’ safety. The mask, the judge said, “contributed to an atmosphere of intimidation.”
Glover was filmed shouting at officers and impeding police carriers. He claimed to be a journalist. The judge rejected that outright: “Genuine journalists record events – they do not manufacture them. You were not a reporter being picked on by the police; you were not the victim of so-called two-tier justice – you were the antagonist. Far from seeking to calm tensions, you repeatedly inflamed them.”
These are not the first such sentences. In October 2025 Stuart Williams received 28 months, Martin Peagram 26 months and Dean Smith 22 months. In June 2026 Lee Gower, a local father and youth football coach, was jailed for 33 months. Shaun Thompson received 31 months. Phillip Curson later got 27 months. Combined custodial terms for those convicted already exceed 17 years.
Chief Inspector Terry Fisher of Essex Police said the disorder left the community “scared and anxious,” disrupted daily life and damaged local businesses. “Whilst many people who wanted their voices to be heard on an important issue did that safely, a number chose to behave well beyond that and these convictions and sentences show that behaviour is and was entirely unacceptable.”
The contrast is stark. A foreign national who sexually assaulted a schoolgirl days after arriving by small boat served 12 months (and was released early by mistake). British men who turned up to protest the housing of such offenders in their town are serving two to nearly three years. The courts have repeatedly stressed that peaceful protest is not the issue – the violence is. Yet the disparity in outcomes has fuelled widespread anger over two-tier justice.
Meanwhile the Labour government continues to free space in overcrowded prisons by releasing thousands of criminals early. Prisons are operating near capacity. Successive schemes have already seen tens of thousands leave early. Further releases are planned under the Sentencing Act, with adjustments after public backlash to exclude some of the most serious sex offenders, yet thousands of other prisoners will still walk free ahead of schedule to ease the crisis.
British towns are told to accept mass arrivals. When one of those arrivals attacks local children and women, residents who object too vigorously find themselves behind bars for longer than the perpetrator.
The system prioritises capacity management and narrative control over equal application of the law.
Secure borders, swift deportation of foreign offenders and consistent justice for British citizens are not radical demands. They are the baseline of a country that still claims to protect its own people.
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END
SPAIN
Ceuta Invaders Are Now Eating The Cats And Birds: Report
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,
Volunteer caregivers in the Spanish North African enclave of Ceuta report that cat colonies are vanishing, dead animals are turning up cut apart, and birds such as pigeons and seagulls are being found half-devoured in the weeks since tens of thousands of migrants poured across the border from Morocco.
Nearly three weeks after the mass invasion, local reports describe cats displaced or missing, and carcasses discovered in disturbing conditions. Caregivers who have continued feeding the animals daily say the damage is already severe.
One volunteer administrator, identified as Merelo, told La Gaceta she has found “many dead cats, cut,” some missing half their body or pierced with a punch, along with mistreated animals.
She has also located pigeons and seagulls that were half-eaten, though she said she did not personally witness anyone consuming them.
“When the people entered, the cats left their habitat, as happens in any natural space,” she explained. Merelo noted that Muslims traditionally show respect for cats, but among the new arrivals are people of sub-Saharan origin from various backgrounds.
The same pattern of disappearance is detailed in an account published by El Faro de Ceuta. Author Ángel Ruiz, writing in support of the volunteer caregivers, stated that the harm caused to the cat colonies “is great and, in many cases, irreparable.”
Cats have left areas now occupied by migrants. “It can be said clearly that cats are missing. Where are they? As of today, no one knows,” the caregivers summarize.
Affected sites include the area near the desalination plant, which caregivers describe as a disaster after occupation made it uninhabitable for the territorial animals. The same has happened in Huerta Téllez, Carmelitas, Calle Goya, and the neighborhoods of Príncipe, Sidi Embarek, and Punta Blanca, now turned into improvised settlements.
The volunteers are calling for the city government and central authorities to provide provisional housing outside the urban core so migrants stop occupying spaces that belong to the city’s community animals, and for immediate eviction of unauthorized camps.
The animal reports fit a pattern repeatedly documented in other places hit by rapid, large-scale irregular migration.
In British cities, migrants have been filmed hunting pigeons with fishing rods and bare hands in public streets.
Migrants Filmed Hunting PIGEONS With FISHING RODS And Bare Hands In UK Streets
Viral clips expose arrivals enjoying free housing and benefits yet still slaughtering urban
Savages are capturing and consuming UK wildlife
Similar clips have shown people catching and butchering swans and ducks in the UK and Ireland.
Migrants Filmed Catching And Butchering Swans, Ducks In UK And Ireland
Parallels US Haitian scandal
In one case a Nigerian migrant was caught cooking a cat in a public park next to a children’s playground.
FURY As Nigerian Migrant Caught COOKING CAT In Public Park Next To CHILDREN’S Playground
Officials vow zero tolerance for imported “barbaric customs”
In Springfield, Ohio, the city manager acknowledged hearing reports that Haitian migrants were eating pets.
These incidents are not isolated curiosities; they surface with depressing regularity where cultural norms around animal welfare, public space, and food sources collide with sudden demographic change that authorities refuse to control.
This is the latest chapter in the chaos that has gripped Ceuta since the late-July avalanche. Estimates of the initial crossing ranged into the tens of thousands – figures comparable to a large share of the enclave’s roughly 84,000 residents – many of them young men who swam or climbed around the border.
Thousands have remained. Reception capacity collapsed. Beaches and open spaces are now filled with shacks, garbage, and human waste. Children’s parks were left smeared in feces.
Reports of sexual assaults have mounted, including cases involving minors. Spanish mothers have been filmed weeping in the streets, packing children off to the mainland, and describing daily fear of leaving home without protection.
We also now have reports from local police of migrants dragging women off the streets, taking them into the surrounding mountainous territory and gang raping them.
Spanish authorities have deployed extra police and troops at points, yet the underlying policy of managed openness continues.
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END
5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL TBN..
HOUTHIS/SAUDI ARABIA/ARMACO
Houthis Claim Fourth Attack On Saudi Aramco Refineries This Month
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 02:45 AM
Yemen’s Houthis, or the Ansar Allah movement, released a statement Thursday announcing new military operations against Saudi Arabia which targeted an Aramco facility and an airport in Najran province, saying that forces “carried out two military operations using two drones.”
“The first targeted a sensitive target belonging to the Saudi enemy at Najran Airport, while the second targeted Aramco in Najran. Both operations successfully achieved their objectives, by God’s grace,” the Houthi statement declared.
Najran is a mid-sized city of around 400,000 and is located in southwest Saudi Arabia, bordering Saada province in northwest Yemen. The Saudis didn’t immediately acknowledge the attack, or whether there’s been damage or casualties from the launches has not been quickly forthcoming.
The Houthis are still complaining of Saudi airspace violations, while in the midst of a “siege for siege” operation.
The day prior the Houthis laid out three objectives imposed on the Saudis:
- The first was described as “siege for siege,” referring to Ansarallah’s declared naval restrictions against Saudi shipping.
- The second involved “striking Saudi troop buildups wherever they are,” while the third centered on “protecting Yemen’s sovereignty and confronting any enemy incursions.”
- Ansarallah stated that its naval measures had imposed a tight blockade on Saudi interests, asserting that “not a single ship can pass through.”
Aramco facilities have been targeted several times over the past weeks, since the Saudi-Houthi conflict erupted again.
Iran has of late been much more open in boasting that its Yemeni ally is doing damage on US allies in the region.
For example, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) spokesman Brig. Gen. Hossein Mohebbi told the semiofficial Mehr News Agency this week that the kingdom cannot defeat the group.
“How can Saudi Arabia, whose military capability is less than that of the Zionist regime, be able to cope with Ansar Allah and the Yemeni fighters? This is not possible,” he said.
The Thursday attack marks the fourth offensive on Aramco facilities this month…
Like the Iranians, the Houthis have some natural leverage given the geography of oil transit chokepoints. Al Monitor observes this week: “Traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, may be on the rebound despite the Houthi blockade. The shipping data firm Kpler said 46 vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday, up 53% from the day prior. Around 50 ships typically crossed before the recent escalation.
It notes further, “Saudi Arabia has been rerouting oil exports through the Red Sea in response to the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.”
END
HEZBOLLAH/WEST BANK
Live Updates: IDF kills terrorist after attempted West Bank stabbing, Israel reportedly strikes Lebanon
Bessent: US will US will ‘squash’ Iranian economy, collapse ‘murderous regime’ • US planning to block Abbas from addressing UNGA in September
Israeli security forces operate during a raid in the West Bank city of Nablus on August 20, 2026.(photo credit: NASSER ISHTAYEH/FLASH90)
IDF kills Hamas terrorist who held hostages after October 7
The IDF killed a Hamas terrorist on Wednesday who entered Israel on October 7 and took hostages, the military announced on Friday.
The terrorist, Sabahi Sami Mahmoud Shahata, was a Hamas platoon commander, and had previously been involved with the November 2023 handover “ceremony” of hostages back to Israel, the IDF said.
END
August 21, 11:18 AM
Jewish teenager lightly wounded by rocks thrown in West Bank
An 18-year-old Jewish shepherd was lightly wounded by Palestinians throwing rocks in the West Bank on Friday, Israeli media reported.
Army Radio reported that the IDF had arrived at the scene and caught several suspects.
According to N12, the wounded teenager was taken to the Shaare Zedek Medical Center in Jerusalem.
END
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Ukraine Corruption Scandal Deepens: ‘Operation Forrest Gump’ Shocks Zelensky Government With More Searches
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Remix News Staff via Remix News,
Ukrainian anti-corruption services launched searches under codename “Operation Forrest Gump,” targeting, among others, the deputy head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky. The move expands the ongoing anti-corruption investigation which has seen a number of top officials in Zelensky’s cabinet flee to Israel shortly before police could raid their homes.
The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) announced they were conducting a special operation involving a criminal organization led by a current and former member of parliament, with the participation of high-ranking officials from the Office of the President of Ukraine.
“NABU and SAPO are conducting a special operation aimed at exposing a criminal organization that operated under the leadership of a current and former member of the Ukrainian Parliament, with the participation of high-ranking officials of the Office of the President of Ukraine and other individuals. Details – coming soon,” announced the anti-corruption services on Telegram.
The operation is codenamed “Forrest Gump,” also referred to as Forest Gump. Ukrayinska Pravda sources and other media reported that NABU and SAPO are conducting searches as part of this special operation at premises belonging to MP Vadym Stolar, who was elected to parliament on behalf of the currently banned Opposition Platform – For Life party.
In addition, Iryna Mudra, deputy head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, is also targeted in the raids.
Stolar has confirmed the investigative actions at his home and stated he is fully cooperating without obstruction.
Additional figures linked by media and law-enforcement sources include former MP Maksym Mykytas, officials from the Ministry of Justice, and senior management of the state-owned Sense Bank including the chair of the board and supervisory board. Searches were also reported at the bank premises.
NABU has released excerpts of intercepted conversations.
Fragments reference “bags of money,” discussions of registering assets or proceeds in the names of children, including high tuition costs, the “Forrest Gump” name itself in a context of concealing theft, and mentions of the Office of the President.
As EuroMaidan writes, “The operation carries a mocking name, Forest Gump, drawn from the suspects’ own words. In a 47-second recording of intercepted conversations, one man ties the label to how the group allegedly hid money.”
The suspect mocks that one of the co-conspirators used his children’s own name to register the stolen money.
“We’ve got Saving Private Ryan, right? But only an idiot would register the theft of money – and their tuition on top of it – on their own children. That’s why, Forest Gump,” he said.
Ukrainian anti-corruption investigators reportedly chose the name “Forrest Gump” to mock these statements from their own criminal targets.
Other parts of the conversation reference cash and the presidential administration directly. “Well, there are four bags of money there,” one voice says on the tape.
Another chimed in, saying: “If we do this, you can drive to the Office of the President yourselves. Believe me. I can see it.”
Investigators allege the group gained effective control over Sense Bank around early June 2026.According to NABU/SAPO details released as part of the operation, the group organized money laundering of $3.5 million in cash (UAH 150 million).
The funds were introduced into legal circulation through accounts of shell companies and Sense Bank to post bail for one of the defendants in the earlier “Midas” case, which was linked to former Energy and Justice Minister Herman Halushchenko.
Cash was reportedly delivered in tranches, processed via controlled entities, and partially directed toward the High Anti-Corruption Court bail account. Allegations include that Mudra was expected to help arrange the raising of these funds and that unidentified individuals from the President’s Office tasked her with efforts related to bringing Sense Bank under greater control.
Investigators also seized a document described as an anti-crisis communications playbook outlining steps and messaging to shape public opinion around a Verkhovna Rada temporary investigative commission, framing it as an “audit, not attack” while shielding President Zelensky and his cabinet.
The probe has also documented alleged attempts to place controlled individuals in NABU and other law-enforcement bodies.
Incredibly, NABU has already posted these documents directly to Telegram.
Who is involved in the broader corruption scandal in Ukraine?
One of the main suspects in the related investigation is businessman Tymur Mindich. He is the co-owner of the Kwartal 95 production studio, which was founded and headed in the past by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Fearing arrest in the Energoatom affair (Operation Midas), Mindich fled to Israel. The Midas case centers on alleged large-scale kickbacks, approximately 10-15 percent of contract values, at the state nuclear company Energoatom, involving roughly $100 million in illicit funds, with the group using code names and cash deliveries.
During searches of Mindich’s premises in November 2025, investigators found large quantities of cash and a golden toilet, along with a golden bidet, in one of the bathrooms of his opulent Kyiv apartment – details that became a public symbol of excess and were widely referred to as the “golden toilet scandal,” which Remix News reported extensively on.
Mindich was not the only key figure to flee to Israel. His close associate, Oleksandr Tsukerman, also fled. The country does not extradite its citizens but Ukraine later imposed sanctions and issued international arrest warrants.
Among the suspects in the Midas scandal was the former head of Volodymyr Zelensky’s office, Andriy Yermak. The former head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office has been charged under the Criminal Code of Ukraine with laundering property obtained as a result of a crime. The alleged laundering of UAH 460 million, about $10.5 million, allegedly occurred during the construction of the Dynastia luxury housing complex in Kozyn near Kyiv.
According to investigators, some of the funds used for the construction may have come from corruption activities at Energoatom. The court then issued an arrest warrant for Yermak.
It stipulated that he would be able to be released if he paid bail of 140 million hryvnias. In mid-May, Andriy Yermak was released from custody after posting bail.
The Forrest Gump operation is now being presented as connected to the wider Midas network of allegations involving high-level influence over strategic state enterprises, money laundering, and related luxury projects. Developments remain ongoing, with NABU indicating further details would be released.
Polish state media outlet TVP reported: “The latest operation could further intensify scrutiny of the political establishment as President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government faces pressure to demonstrate progress in tackling corruption while Ukraine continues its war with Russia. It also poses a fresh headache for Zelenskyy after ousted defense chief Mykhailo Fedorov called for wartime elections in a bombshell statement late on Tuesday.”
The question now remains: Is the noose tightening around Zelensky himself, or will he emerge from this massive corruption scandal of close associates squeaky clean?
END
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
these attacks are totally insane! make peace already!
Mass Casualties As Russian Drones Slam Into Mall In Zelensky’s Hometown
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 03:05 PM
At least 15 have been killed and 121 injured after a Friday afternoon apparent Russian drone strike on a busy shopping call in the central Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih, regional officials say. Casualty numbers could grow amid ongoing search and rescue efforts at the scene. Some of the injured are in serious condition.
President Zelensky quickly issued a statement on the attack which was carried out on his own hometown, calling it “cynical and despicable” and underscoring that it was “an ordinary shopping center”.
Zelensky described that the strikes came in two waves, with the second drone hitting “half an hour after the first hit and the ensuing fire, there was a second strike on the emergency services. He urged for the “the world” to respond “accordingly – with real pressure on the aggressor.”
“Attacks like these are nothing less than terrorist acts,” Zelensky wrote further, and pledged a strong response to the aggression.
According to The Associated Press, the same city has suffered immensely from prior attack waves stretching throughout the war:
Local administration head Oleksandr Vilkul put the death toll at 14, adding that 121 people were injured, including 22 children. He said the rescue operation was ongoing as “the rubble is being cleared.”
Kryvyi Rih has been hit multiple times during the more than 4-year-old war, with one of the deadliest occurring in April 2025, when 20 people, including nine children, were killed.
Multiple videos have emerged from the scene, showing what appear to be a Geran-4 (jet-powered) drone attack…
The Ukrainians have all the while pressured Western backers to give more anti-air missiles, especially Patriot batteries, which have been in short supply worldwide, also amid the Iran war in the Middle East.
Ukraine’s own deadly long-range attacks deep inside Russian territory have continued, meanwhile.
“A Ukrainian drone attack killed one person and wounded four others when a car was struck Friday in Russia’s Belgorod region near the village of Razumnoye, local officials said, adding that two of the injured were in serious condition,” AP also notes.
The death toll in Kryvyi Rih has climbed since initial reports began circulating:
“Earlier, Zelenskyy said a separate Ukrainian drone attack hit an oil refinery in Perm, more than 1,600 kilometers (about 995 miles) from his country’s border. Also struck was the Marinovka military airfield in Russia’s Volgograd region, he said,” the report adds.
Washington is lately calling for renewed efforts to get the warring sides to the negotiating table to finally end the war. The Kremlin on Friday said it is open to ‘new ideas’ – though any final settlement must be in line with Putin’s demands as well as “realities on the ground”.
END
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
typhus: returning
why? covid vaccines causing lack of immunity. And the huge influx of migrants!!
Medieval Diseases Have Returned To Los Angeles
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 05:45 AM
In what can only be described as a stunning failure of state and local policy and leadership, Los Angeles County recorded its highest tally of flea-borne typhus cases in 2025, confirming 220 diagnoses, up from 187 the year before, according to the county’s Department of Public Health. Almost nine in ten of those patients ended up hospitalized. Fleas that feed on infected rats, opossums, and other small mammals carry the bacteria behind the disease to humans, and Los Angeles has watched the case count climb for years. The 2025 total marks the sharpest jump yet.
Dr. Dean Winslow has practiced infectious disease medicine for fifty years. He taught at Stanford, ran COVID-19 testing programs for the federal government, and served as President Trump’s 2017 nominee for assistant secretary of defense for health affairs. Asked whether a typhus outbreak in one of the wealthiest counties in America points to a broader failure in public health and sanitation, Winslow gave a one-word answer. “Absolutely,” he told the Daily Signal.
“It’s largely an issue of … people living in just horrible conditions in close proximity to rats,” Winslow said, naming rodents as the primary vector for the infection’s spread.
The conditions track with the county’s homelessness numbers. Homelessness in LA County rose 3.3% over the past year, and in the city of Los Angeles itself the figure climbed 7.9%, according to data from the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority. Winslow said encampments put residents at heightened risk given their proximity to rats, though he cautioned the problem extends beyond encampments alone.
Asked what he would tell city officials, Winslow said the priority should be to “get a handle again on rat control issues.”
That task has gotten harder since 2020, when Gov. Gavin Newsom signed Assembly Bill 1788 into law, restricting the use of four rodenticides over concerns about their effects on mountain lions and other wildlife. Winslow pointed to the restrictions as one likely culprit behind the county’s swelling rat population, since pest-control operators have shifted toward traps and less potent methods in response. “Those may be two reasons why … the rat population is out of control [in LA],” he said.
The county’s own public health guidance seems to put the burden of prevention on residents, telling them to keep pets on flea-control products, avoid stray animals, clear yard debris, secure trash in tightly lidded containers, and report rodents or opossums to animal control. Mayor Karen Bass’s office did not respond to the Daily Signal’s request for comment.
Christopher Rufo, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, examined the county’s internal records for City Journal. His team filed public records requests and received a thousand pages of documents from the county health department. What those documents showed is a public health system bracing for outbreaks it had fallen behind on.
“This is about plague rats that have returned,” Rufo told Hugh Hewitt on the Salem News Channel. “So we did a story, we did FOIA, we got 1,000 pages of documents from the County Health Department in Los Angeles. And the picture that these documents painted was quite grim. You have a return of typhus, you have outbreaks of hantavirus, you have really a plethora of medieval diseases that are on the rise in LA.”
Rufo laid out two forces behind the outbreak. “And there are a couple of causes for this. The first is that the homeless encampments that are scattered, not just in Skid Row, but throughout the city, are the perfect breeding ground for rats. And so now there are millions of rats breeding under the streets of Los Angeles. And the County Health Department admits in these internal documents that they’re not ready for these outbreaks,” he continued. “And at the same time, you have California Governor Gavin Newsom in two separate pieces of legislation in recent years banning all of the most effective rodenticides, so rat poisons that can keep that population at bay. And when you put those ingredients together, you get something that experts predicted in LA seems powerless to stop, which is typhus, including three deaths from typhus in recent years.”
Three deaths and 220 hospitalization cases in a single year mark a policy failure in a county that absolutely has the resources to prevent it. Encampments stayed in place. Rodenticides came off the shelf. The health department knew what was coming and clearly could not (or would not) stop it. State and local officials built, permitted, and, in some cases, legislated the conditions that allowed the rat population to multiply beneath the streets of one of the wealthiest cities in America.
END
GLOBAL ISSUES
Biden Adviser Warned Fauci, CDC Director Cloth Masks Didn’t Work Well: Text
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 02:05 PM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,
A doctor who advised President Joe Biden on COVID-19 warned Dr. Anthony Fauci and other top Biden administration officials in a newly disclosed text message that wearing cloth masks provided “very limited protection.”
Dr. Michael Osterholm, who was part of Biden’s COVID-19 transition advisory team, told Fauci and other officials, including the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention at the time, in August 2021, that the government needed to encourage the wearing of N-95 masks, rather than masking in general.
“Note the very limited protection from face cloth coverings,” Osterholm said in the text. He said that he supported masking, “but we must be promoting the use of N-95s, even if not fit tested.”
The CDC recommended masking in 2020 after the COVID-19 pandemic started, prompting mask mandates in schools and other places. The agency promoted cloth masks, in addition to better quality face coverings, citing research it published in its quasi-journal.
Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, leading up to the 2021 text said publicly that cloth masks provided limited benefits and that he favored N-95s.
After Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis threatened to withhold funds from schools that forced masking on children, a reporter during a White House press briefing on Aug. 6, 2021, referenced Osterholm’s comments.
Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary at the time, noted that Osterholm was no longer a government adviser. She said the Biden administration was relying on medical experts in the federal government for masking. The issue with DeSantis, she added, was that the governor was “preventing schools and teachers and others from protecting themselves and the students in their classroom.”
Osterholm reacted by composing a message to Fauci, then-CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky, and several others.
“I’m sending this via text messaging to avoid any FOIA issues,” he wrote on Aug. 8, 2021, referring to the Freedom of Information Act.
A former Fauci adviser just pleaded guilty to the federal crime of defrauding the government by destroying and conspiring to destroy federal records subject to the act, which lets people request government records.
Osterholm, in his message, pointed to a fact sheet from the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists that said with cloth masks, people had little protection against COVID-19.
He told the administration officials that “none of the studies that CDC uses to support its statement as to the significant protection of face cloth coverings stand up to scientific scrutiny” and urged them to “strongly promote” N-95s to the public.
“I am certain one day that one of the take-away findings of this pandemic was the constant [government] emphasis on masking while at the same time providing minimal guidance to the public what effective masking means,” he said.
The message was obtained by The Epoch Times from Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), who acquired it from the Department of Health and Human Services, the CDC’s parent agency. The record was produced in response to Grassley’s requests for documents related to the origins of COVID-19, a spokeswoman said.
Osterholm, Walensky, and Fauci did not respond to requests for comment by the time of publication.
Walensky through 2022 advised schools to keep mask mandates in place. Many states and districts throughout that year rolled back masking requirements. The CDC says on its website now that wearing a mask “offers you an extra layer of protection from respiratory illness” and that “cloth masks generally offer lower levels of protection to wearers.”
Ian Miller, author of “Unmasked: The Global Failure of COVID Mask Mandates,” wrote on X that the newly disclosed message showed that top experts “knew that cloth masks didn’t work and were already failing to stop or even slow transmission and they kept demanding more mask mandates and forced school and toddler masking anyway.”
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER..
Can a sugar-laden diet in modern America trigger a chain of changes in the body that increases the risk of pancreatic cancer? We have surging pancreatic cancer among young in USA, is this Malone mRNA
vaccine? Is the Malone Bourla Bancel Pfizer Moderna et al. mRNA vaccine the reason for this public health nightmare? aggressive vicious form of cancer…has the mRNA vaccine harmed Americans? RFK Jr.
| Dr. Paul AlexanderAug 20 |  |
remains silent on mRNA vaccine after crusading against it before joining Trump administration. Is his silence linked to the HHS post? It is a legitimate question. I am asking. I do not know. All I know is that mRNA e.g. Moderna flu mRNA shot, more mRNA COVID vaccines et al. are being expanded under RFK Jr. and his class of clowns leading our health agencies. FDA approving all. I hope not. I hope he is about to pull all mRNA vaccine for he knows it does not work and it kills and unsafe.
Over to you Bobby junior. I still have hope in you.
America’s pancreatic cancer explosion: Science breakthrough leaves experts fearing surprisingly common lifestyle habit is behind surge in young patients… as new early warning sign is revealed
end
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Intervening Oneself Out Of Quagmire?
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 10:45 AM
By Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy at Rabobank
Intervening Oneself Out Of Quagmire?
Yesterday’s market moves again showed that jawboning and temporary interventions are rarely enough when the underlying problem is fundamental.
As a “thank you” for Trump’s last-minute intervention to reduce joint US-South Korean military drills – and his claim to have spoken with Kim Jong Un – Pyongyang launched around 10 ballistic missiles on Thursday, according to South Korean news agencies. The message was clear: action versus words. Developments in the Middle East, where Iran has effectively defied US military power, may only have reinforced North Korea’s conviction that its nuclear missile programme gives it an edge even Iran still lacks. The broader ramifications are unsettling.
Markets told a similar story. The benchmark US 10-year Treasury more than gave back the gains made the previous day, while the 30-year long bond retraced over 7bp after Thursday’s 10bp rally, which followed Treasury’s announcement that it would at least double long-dated bond buybacks from 9 September through 4 November.
The price action may matter more than the amounts involved. The additional purchases total only about USD 14bn in the current refunding quarter – a rounding error next to a roughly USD 32trn Treasury market and federal debt now above USD 40trn. Nor is this quantitative easing: Treasury must finance buybacks by issuing other debt. The programme can improve liquidity in off-the-run bonds and temporarily reduce the duration dealers and investors must absorb, but it neither cancels debt nor changes the deficit path.
That distinction explains why Thursday’s long-bond rally should not be extrapolated – and why part of it has already faded.
In the short run, supporting the back end can work. It reduces pressure on term premia, improves dealer balance-sheet capacity and makes outright shorts in long Treasuries riskier. But it also increases reliance on continued bill demand, with no certainty that future stablecoin issuance can offset that exposure for foreign holders. If borrowing needs remain large, Treasury may eventually have to return to greater coupon issuance – or accept higher funding costs.
The medium-term implication is therefore less “lower yields” than “a more managed yield curve”. Call it YCC-light. The Treasury has shown sensitivity not only to poor liquidity, but also to the economic and political consequences of rapidly rising long-term yields. Thirty-year rates above 5% feed into mortgages, corporate financing, equity valuations and, through higher interest costs, the deficit itself. That creates a feedback loop: higher yields worsen the fiscal outlook, which warrants a larger term premium, which raises yields further. Wednesday’s intervention interrupted that loop; it likely did not break it.
The episode also risks blurring the line between debt management and monetary policy. If investors conclude that Treasury will adjust issuance or buybacks whenever long yields rise too quickly, that creates an implicit “Treasury put”. It may suppress volatility for a while, but it could prove self-defeating. Easier financial conditions from lower long yields sit awkwardly alongside above-target inflation, complicating the Fed’s task, as minutes show several policymakers were prepared to raise rates in July. The Treasury may be insuring the market against a tail event just as the Fed tries to keep conditions restrictive.
The dollar’s negative reaction is therefore revealing. Normally, lower Treasury yields weaken the currency through the interest-rate channel. This time, gold and crypto also rallied, suggesting concern about fiscal credibility and the perceived management of borrowing costs. Yesterday’s price action reinforced that message: both the dollar index and gold have extended Thursday’s moves. Could the end-result soon be unchanged long-term yields, but a weaker dollar?
Of course, the dollar still benefits from deep capital markets, strong nominal growth and reserve-currency status. But those advantages are less reassuring if foreign investors believe they are being asked to finance widening deficits while the authorities lean against the resulting rise in term premia.
This week’s geopolitical backdrop sharpens the dilemma. Higher oil prices and uncertainty around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz add an inflation premium; the 5y5y US inflation swap forward is now close to its May peak even though headline inflation has fallen by almost a percentage point since then. This comes just as fiscal supply tests investors’ appetite for duration. The Treasury can address market plumbing, but it cannot buy back geopolitical risk, inflation risk or fiscal arithmetic.
The Friday takeaway is that Wednesday’s announcement matters mainly as a signal. It tells investors the authorities are unwilling to leave the long end entirely to its own devices. That may intermittently cap yields and curve steepening. Yet if every rise in long yields elicits more bills, larger buybacks or smaller long-bond auctions, the adjustment may migrate elsewhere: into front-end funding costs, inflation expectations, gold – or the dollar. The market may have been calmed, but it has learnt where Treasury’s pain threshold lies.
That said – and allowing for possible European bias – investors watch fundamentals not only in absolute terms, but also relative to other regions and asset classes. This week’s widening of the French spread over German Bunds serves as a case in point: a clear warning that markets are focused on the upcoming presidential election and France’s structural challenges.
Finally, the speed of technological change seems to be widening the gap between Europe and the US. The geopolitical overlay is pungent and spicy: for Europe, it smells of rising tensions with major trading partners in the coming months.
China has been warning European trading partners already through several channels that it willing to play hardball to stave off intensification of European trade defense measures. Another example are news reports yesterday suggesting that the US is preparing to force the Netherlands to ban ASML from selling to China entirely. As both Republicans and Democrats seem to be on the same page with potential legislation backing such a move, this raises the risk of coercion.
Perhaps these pressures will push Europe towards next steps, such as integrating capital markets. If so, that would be fundamental change. For now, it remains mostly words in Europe too.
END
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS/ENERGY COMMENTARIES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1694 UP 0.0007
USA/ YEN 158.76 DOWN 0.148 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!! BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE. URGES PENSION AND INSUANCE FUNDS TO BUY JAPANESE BONDS
GBP/USA 1.3643 DOWN 0.0007 OR 7 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3753 DOWN 0.0028 //CDN DOLLAR UP 28 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 1.48 PTS OR 0.040%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 308.51 PTS OR 1.20%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.12%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 308.51 PTS OR 1.20-%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.48 PTS OR 0.040%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .12%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 238.00 PTS OR 0.36%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4581.50
silver:$69.79
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 48.07 UP 11 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 83.01 ROUBLE// UP 0 ROUBLE AND 74 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.0526 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.7977 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.7570 UP 6 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.355 UP 5 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early FRIDAY MORNING: 98.64 DOWN 0 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.595% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.876% UP 3 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 4.060 UP 5 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.696 DOWN 0 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 4.075 DOWN 0 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.2458 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1687 UP 0.0003 OR 3 basis points
USA/Japan: 158.79 DOWN 0.000 OR YEN IS UP 0 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.0493 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.7900 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS.
Canadian dollar UP 35 BASIS pts to 1.3746
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The USA/Yuan CNY 6.7207 ON SHORE ..UP
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.7203
TURKISH LIRA: 48.07 UP 11 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.703% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.243 UP 1 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.187 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM $4580.90
SILVER AT 10;00: $69.35
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY
DAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM///
London: CLOSED UP 68.40 PTS OR 0.64%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 153.52 PTS OR 0.59%
FRANCE: UP 31.34 OR 0.37 PTS
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 150.50 PTS OR 0.76%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 2.22 PTS OR 0.00%
WTI Oil price 87.04 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 93.71 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 82.77 /// ROUBLE UP 0 AND 77/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.7590 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.354 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM//
Euro vs USA 1.1679 DOWN 0.0008 OR 8 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3647 UP 0.0004 OR 4 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 5.0639 UP 0 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.8180 UP 1 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.884 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 4.069 UP 4 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 159.03 UP 0.136 OR YEN DOWN 14 BASIS PTS//GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM 160.00/ EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3790 DOWN 0.0020 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 20 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 86.89
Brent OIL: 94.06
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS pts to 4.738
USA 30 yr bond yield: UP 4 PTS to 5.276%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.128 UP 1 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.7670 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.369 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 98.75 DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 48.06 UP 11 BASIS PTS GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 83.88 DOWN 0 AND 13/100 roubles //
GOLD $4,622.00 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 69.61 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 517.80 POINTS OR 0.98%
NASDAQ 100 UP 95.70 PTS OR 0.33%
VOLATILITY INDEX 15.18 DOWN 0.83 PTS OR 5.18%
GLD: $ 423.41UP 8.15 PTS OR 1.96%
SLV/ 62.72 PTS UP 1.06 OR 1.71%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 263.66 PTS OR 0.74%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Bessent’s Bailout Brings Big Week For Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion But Battered Big-Tech & The Buck
Stocks and yields gain ahead of key risk week – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 03:56 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar flat, Gold up
- REAR VIEW: S&P Global Flash US PMI shows mfg miss, services beat; President Trump says, for the next 90 days, US will allow up to 300K metric tons of product for ground beef to be imported with no quota; Iranian President Pezeshkian says war must end at some point, better to end when in power; Commander of the Iranian Navy says we will soon teach the enemy a historical lesson at sea; Samsung Electronics plans as much as USD 79bln in shareholder returns.
- COMING UP: Data: Mexican Inflation (Aug), US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jul). Speakers: US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Earnings: Xpeng, PDD.
- WEEK IN FOCUS: Highlights include NVDA earnings, US PCE, BLS revisions, Bessent on Iran, and Jackson Hole. Click here for the full report.
- WEEKLY US EARNINGS ESTIMATES: Tech earnings the highlight; NVDA, MRVL, CRWD, and CRM due. Click here for the full report.
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- 1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
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MARKET WRAP
Stocks closed in the green on Friday, with gains broad-based, although the Dow and Russell outperformed while the Nasdaq slightly lagged. Breadth was strong, with the equal-weight S&P 500 rising around 0.6%, while sectors were also predominantly firmer. Materials, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary led the gains. Utilities were the clear laggard, with notable pressure in sector heavyweights NEE, SO, DUK and AEP, likely weighed on by the continued rise in Treasury yields despite the Treasury’s recent announcement of increased long-end buybacks, while some may be taking data centre-related profits.
The Treasury curve bear flattened on Friday, with front-end yields leading the move higher. Long-end yields have returned above levels seen before the Treasury’s buyback announcement, although the increased focus on long-end liquidity may be helping limit the relative move higher. Treasury raised the maximum size of long-end liquidity-support buybacks from USD 2bln to “at least” USD 4bln, while Bessent subsequently acknowledged a signalling element to the move and suggested long-end operations could exceed USD 4bln. In otherwise quiet trade, this may be leaving the path of least resistance towards some flattening following the pronounced recent steepening.
In FX, the Dollar extended its recent decline despite higher US yields, while the Antipodeans outperformed amid hopes for additional Chinese fiscal stimulus and the rally in metals prices.
In commodities, crude settled higher but gave back the gains post-settlement. Geopolitical messaging was mixed, with Iranian President Pezeshkian speaking in favour of ending the war while Iran remained in a position of strength, although the Iranian Navy commander separately warned that a “historic lesson” was coming for the enemy. Gold and silver extended their recent rally despite higher Treasury yields, while broader metals were also supported by hopes for additional Chinese stimulus.
Attention next week turns to Treasury Secretary Bessent announcing Iranian sanctions on Monday, the US PCE report, BLS prelim benchmark revisions, and Fed Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole.
US
FLASH S&P GLOBAL US PMI: Manufacturing unexpectedly declined to 53.2 in August from the expected and prior 53.9. Services surprised to the upside, rising to 56.8 from 54.6 (exp. 54.0). Meanwhile, the composite rose to 56.0 from 54.5. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, wrote that the data for Q3 currently points towards annualised growth approaching 3.0%, accelerating from the 1.5% pace seen in Q2. Positively, he added that “Jobs growth has also shown a welcome revival in August, with employers gaining in confidence as concerns fade over the negative economic impacts of tariffs and the conflict in the Middle East”.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (U6) SETTLED 7+ TICKS LOWER AT 108-08+
Treasury curve bear flattens as focus turns to Jackson Hole. At settlement, 2-year +4.4bps at 4.234%, 3-year +3.6bps at 4.310%, 5-year +3.2bps at 4.426%, 7-year +3.1bps at 4.568%, 10-year +3.2bps at 4.740%, 20-year +2.6bps at 5.265%, 30-year +2.7bps at 5.277%.
THE DAY: Yields rose across the curve on Friday in quiet trade. The curve bear flattened, with front-end yields leading the move higher, while crude prices settled marginally firmer.
The Treasury’s actions earlier this week remain at the front of participants’ minds. Traders may be reluctant to push long-end Treasury futures materially lower given the prospect of further Treasury action; Bessent said on Thursday that the Treasury has a wide toolkit, while also stressing that buybacks could exceed the USD 4bln per-operation maximum announced earlier this week. It is also worth noting that the increased liquidity-support buybacks are focused on the 10-30-year sector, potentially providing greater support to the long end relative to the front end and contributing to Friday’s flattening.
Data saw the S&P Global Flash PMI report, where Manufacturing missed expectations, but the Services beat was enough to offset the weakness, with the Composite rising to 56.0 from 54.5. The report noted that the data point to a Q3 annualised growth rate approaching 3.0%, vs the roughly 1.5% pace signalled in Q2.
Geopolitical news was mixed, with Iranian President Pezeshkian saying “the war must end at some point”, noting it would be better to end the conflict now from a position of strength. However, the Commander of the Iranian Navy struck a more confrontational tone, saying Iran will soon teach the enemy a “historical lesson” at sea.
Next week, the US PCE report will be the data highlight, while on Monday Treasury Secretary Bessent is expected to announce large-scale sanctions on Iran. However, for Treasury traders, Fed Chair Warsh’s remarks at Jackson Hole will be key, as will the annual BLS Benchmark revisions (primers available here)
SUPPLY
Notes/Bonds
- US to sell USD 69bln of 2-year notes on August 25th, USD 70bln of 5-yr notes on Aug. 26th, and USD 44bln of 7-yr notes on Aug. 27th; all to settle on Aug. 31st
Bills
- US to sell USD 92bln of 13-wk bills and USD 79bln of 26-wk bills on August 24th, USD 95bln of 6-wk bills on Aug. 25th and USD 28bln of reopened 2yr FRN on Aug. 26th; all to settle on Aug. 27th.
STIRS / OPERATIONS
- Fed Hike Pricing via CME FedWatch: Sept 9.6bps (prev. 9.0bps), Dec 25.0bps (prev. 23.0bps)
- EFFR at 3.63% (prev. 3.63%), volumes at USD 102bln (prev. USD 95bln) on August 20th
- SOFR at 3.63% (prev. 3.62%), volumes at USD 2.922tln (prev. USD 2.923tln) on August 20th
- NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.20bln (prev. 0.23bln) across 1 counterparties (prev. 1) on August 21st
CRUDE
WTI (V6) SETTLED USD 0.23 HIGHER AT 87.06/BBL; BRENT (V6) SETTLED USD 0.61 HIGHER AT 94.39/BBL
Crude prices settled higher, now seeing two consecutive weeks of gains. Absence of positive updates was behind the move higher, as markets now look towards US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s announcement on Monday of a new economic sanctions operation on Iran that will “collapse the regime”. The Jerusalem Post reported that security officials reportedly see a lower near-term risk of an expanded war with Iran, with Trump’s new economic sanctions intended to buy time until after the US midterms. Today, Iran’s Foreign Minister downplayed the effectiveness of prior US sanctions on Iran, claiming the incoming operation is bound to fail. Further adding to geopolitical risk, Iran’s Navy Commander noted they will soon teach the enemy a historical lesson at sea. In the European morning, a delayed reaction was seen in response to the Iranian President saying it is better to end the war today when they are in power; crude prices saw short-lived downside, perhaps as the IRGC and other hardliners would push back on such actions until higher oil prices deal more damage to the US economy. Elsewhere, upside was also seen on reports that oil tankers have to wait for up to 30 days to load at Venezuelan ports, according to shipping data and sources. WTI and Brent traded between USD 85.80-87.51/bbl and USD 92.74-94.83/bbl, respectively.
ENERGY UPDATES
- Baker Hughes rig count: Oil -3 at 452, Nat gas -1 at 127, Total -5 at 588.
- Iraq’s PM said that the country plans to raise oil production to 8-10mln bpd, within six years.
- Offers of Iranian crude to Chinese buyers have reportedly declined, Reuters reports.
- Saudi Aramco reportedly instructed LPG buyers to resume loading cargoes from inside the Persian Gulf for the first time since port infrastructure was damaged amid the war, sources state.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.43% at 7,674, NDX +0.33% at 29,309, DJI +0.98% at 53,282, RUT +0.85% at 3,018
SECTORS: Utilities -2.31%, Energy -0.23%, Technology flat, Real estate flat, Industrials +0.29%, Consumer staples +0.58%, Communication services +0.87%, Consumer discretionary +0.91%, Financials +1.01%, Health +1.31%, Materials +2.2%
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.68% at 6,466, Dax 40 +0.56% at 26,129, FTSE 100 +0.64% at 10,817, CAC 40 +0.37% at 8,484, FTSE MIB +0.00% at 52,668, IBEX 35 +0.76% at 19,962, PSI +0.78% at 9,355, SMI +0.73% at 14,473, AEX +0.29% at 1,106.
STOCK SPECIFICS
- Ross Stores (ROST): Quarterly earnings and revenue beat expectations. It also raised FY profit guidance, supported by strong comparable sales, customer traffic and demand for discounted apparel
- BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ): EPS and revenue beat; raised FY26 profit view
- OSI Systems (OSIS): Q4 revenue missed; FY27 guidance disappointed.
- Citadel founder Ken Griffin reportedly told investors he has completed nearly 100 block trades worth more than USD 4bln; Ken Griffin said he has cut risk exposure in his original portfolio by more than 80%.
- Broadcom (AVGO) is now looking to tap the debt market for between USD 70-80bln, CNBC’s Faber reports.
- Hunterbrook Capital is long Modine (MOD), says Google (GOOGL) is the undisclosed customer behind an over USD 4bln agreement, plus USD 4.5bln in demand.
- OpenAI said it’s dropping and credit pricing of GPT5.6 SOL by over 20%.
- Apple (AAPL) reportedly set to cut around 200 jobs in several divisions; will cut jobs in Siri, Vision Pro 3D video and gaming teams.
FX
USD was little changed, again failing to track the move higher in US yields, remaining the casualty of the planned increases to the US Treasury buyback operations on the long end. The US Treasury announcement is to be a key topic at next week’s Jackson Hole; however, Chair Warsh is likely to navigate the questioning similarly to Daly and Musalem this week, namely, referring to the Fed’s dual mandate, independence from fiscal policy, and commitment to 2% inflation. The dollar’s correlation with the US 2yr yields and oil prices will be scrutinised early next week given the new wave of US sanctions on Iran that will be announced next Monday. Thus far, Iran is standing firm, claiming the US operation will fail. Elsewhere, USD was muted towards a mixed S&P Global Flash PMI August report, which saw manufacturing miss and services beat. DXY now trades at 98.82, down from last week’s close of 99.64.
Antipodeans outperformed after China’s Vice Finance Minister pledged additional fiscal policy measures, echoing similar rhetoric from July’s Politburo meeting. The continued rally in precious metals also supported the move higher.
EUR/USD was little changed even with EZ flash PMIs signalling solid Q3 GDP growth, a return to hiring and inflation remaining elevated by historical standards. EUR/USD hit a session high of 1.1711 before retreating to 1.1680.
USA DATA RELEASES
Services Sector Survey Surge Sparks US Growth Rebound Hopes In August
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 09:56 AM
After a relatively ugly series of disappointing macro data – and a hectic week of interventions – preliminary August data from S&P Global’s PMI survey was expected to signal a slowdown in growth for the US economy (but still growth).
But, the respondents had other things on their mind as while Manufacturing slipped, the Services sector of the economy soared
- Flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 56.8 (July: 54.6). 20-month high.
- Flash US Manufacturing PMI: 53.2 (July: 53.9). 5-month low.
“US business is booming,” says Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, “with firms reporting the fastest output growth for over four years so far in the third quarter as the expansion picked up further momentum in August.”
The survey data for the third quarter are currently pointing to annualized growth approaching 3.0%, up solidly from the 1.5% pace seen in the second quarter.
Jobs growth has also shown a welcome revival in August, with employers gaining in confidence as concerns fade over the negative economic impacts of tariffs and the conflict in the Middle East.
However, as Williamson writes, “the latter in particular remains a key area of concern for businesses, especially via the impact on supply lines and energy prices. “
Supply delays were again reported in August to one of the greatest extents seen over the past four years, clearly constraining output in many companies.
Price pressures, while fading, also remain elevated and prone to renewed upward pressures should energy prices rise again.
Growth momentum has meanwhile shifted from manufacturing to services between the second and third quarters.
Williamson concludes: “As reduced safety stock building and supply delays dampen factory production growth, the service sector is now playing a key role in driving a sustained US expansion, underscoring a dependency on consumer spending and financial services growth.”
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
Cost Of Living Remains Biggest Challenge Facing Americans
Thursday, Aug 20, 2026 – 10:10 PM
The war in Iran marked a significant setback in Americans’ year-long battle with high prices.
While inflation has come down a long way from its 2021/2022 highs, when it peaked at 9 percent, it remains elevated at 3.4 percent.
More importantly though, as Statista’s Felix Richter reports, people are still struggling to cope with the lasting effects of the inflation crisis.
According to a Statista Consumer Insights survey conducted between January and July 2026, 53 percent of U.S. adults said that the high cost of living was one of the biggest challenges they currently face – making it by far the most common answer ahead of mental and physical health at 26 percent each.
You will find more infographics at Statista
It is a common misconception that prices come down when inflation cools, when in reality a period of high inflation leaves a legacy of high prices.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. consumer prices have increased 26.7 percent since January 2021, with some categories seeing even steeper price increases than that.
Food prices are up 27.2 percent, rents have increased more than 30 percent and transportation prices are up 35 percent.
And yet, nominal wages have only grown 25.7 percent since January 2021, leaving many people worse off than they were five years ago.
END
BROADCOM/CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS//EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
this is very troublesome: huge debt accumulation as Capex on Boradcom increases and that sends credit default swap on it skyrocketing@!!
(zerohedge)
Broadcom CDS Explodes As It Seeks Up To $100 Billion In Massive Off-Balance Sheet Debt Deal
Thursday, Aug 20, 2026 – 10:51 PM
Amid the growing angst about hyperscaler CapEx (and more specifically, the historic flood of new debt issuance to fund it), attention among the always-bullish equity talking-heads has shifted – and rightfully so – to the bond markets as alarm signals flare up with an increasing frequency. Of course, for ZeroHedge readers, this is not a new topic, it is something we have been warning of for the past year, ever since we explained that debt was the true AI bubble last October:
- The $1.8 Trillion Off-Balance Sheet Time Bomb At The Heart Of The AI Supercycle
- Goldman Warns Massive Hyperscaler Bond Issuance Means “Risk Skewed To Downside”
- “Generational Transfer Is Taking Place”: The Cash Crunch Is Coming For AI Hyperscalers
- Hyperscaler Bond Spreads Blow Out After Google Shocks With Another $25 Billion Bond Offering
- The AI CapEx Boom Is Building Twice As Fast As The Housing Boom
- The Circular Delusion Of Markets: How Earnings Growth Runs On Borrowed Money (& The Smart Money Is Leaving)
- Nvidia Confirms Record $500 Billion Off-Balance Sheet SPV Deal To Fund The World’s Biggest Circle Jerk
- Nvidia’s $500 Billion Bet Shows Up In Credit
- Hyperscaler CDS Volumes Explode To All-Time High On Credit, Circular Financing Fears
Then, last week we explained why – as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott also joined the credit chorus – the unprecedented flood of AI corporate debt had started to crowd out demand for US government paper, an ominous development as it meant continued massive capex would lead to even higher treasury yields… as well as even more inflation, a toxic mix to the Treasury.
What’s worse, the market had finally started to pay attention, as one look at the surge in treasury swaption vol of vol made abundantly clear, which is why last week we warned – correctly – that Bessent was about to get very busy as bearish bets hit levels last seen during previous trasury market crises.
One week later Bessent did in fact, get busy, and shocked the market with a “cringingly executed” (to quote McElligott) buyback directive announcement, one which lasted all of 23 hours before the entire move was reversed and yields are now trading 4 bps higher than where they were before the Treasury announcement.
But while Bessent can address the market again any time he wants and threaten Treasury shorts (“By At LeAsT dOuBlE”), the bigger problem facing the Treasury is that the deluge of AI debt is really just starting – recall there is another $6-8 trillion in capex that has to be spent by 2030, most of it in the form of corporate debt, which will lead to relentless pressure higher on US interest rate for the foreseeable future.
Some AI companies realize that it is only a matter of time before Bessent chills this AI debt diarrhea indefinitely; which explains why Bloomberg reported today that Broadcom is preparing another gargantuan SPV deal, and is in talks with a group of lenders to raise more than $60 billion in debt for an AI chip financing deal that will benefit Anthropic PBC and other companies.
The financing, which is still being ironed out, may also include a roughly $30 billion junior debt tranche, said some of the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private.
Under the proposed plan, Broadcom would guarantee a portion of the senior-secured tranche, which could range from about $60 billion to $70 billion. The numbers under discussion would potentially bring the total to as much as $100 billion, which would make it the largest SPV deal ever funded.
The agreement would add to a rush of deals aimed at financing artificial intelligence infrastructure. AI companies like Anthropic are taking a bigger role in the build-out, aiming to ensure they have enough computing capacity. Broadcom, meanwhile, is looking to sell more chips and other data center equipment, challenging Nvidia in this lucrative market.
Since AI infrastructure SPV require private credit backers, Blackstone and Apollo – the same firms that backstopped Nvidia’s recent $500 billion compute collateralized deal – are in talks with Broadcom to participate in the chip financing, following a partnership the three companies struck in June to help finance computing infrastructure. The debt – as one would expect ever since Meta set the standard with its Beignet off-balance sheet deal – would be issued by a special-purpose vehicle, or SPV, most of which won’t appear on any balance sheet.
The potential deal would help firms including Anthropic access chips and other key AI infrastructure, according to Bloomberg which broke the news. It could be similar to the $35 billion debt agreement that kicked off the group’s AI XPV partnership, they said.
In the first deal for the AI XPV platform two months ago, we explained that Broadcom backstopped most of the debt and investors including Apollo and Blackstone financed the purchase of custom AI chips to lease to Anthropic. And in a sleight of brilliant financial engineering where everyone pretends there is no actual debt being issued, this enabled the senior debt tranches to win investment-grade ratings at lower borrowing costs.
However, that is just the start… of both the debt issuance runway and Bessent’s headaches. The partnership, which plans to finance more than 20 gigawatts of computing power, will require hundreds of billions of dollars. That level of capacity would roughly equal the output of 20 nuclear plants.
The unprecedented scale of the borrowing now under discussion underscores the capital requirements of the AI boom, which has prompted a slew of novel debt deals at a pace and scale that’s simultaneously unnerved some investors. In what was actually a huge nothingburger, Nvidia earlier this month announced that a coalition of major financial firms including BlackRock and Goldman Sachs Group were lining up more than $500 billion to help fund the AI build-out, although the agreement was only an MOU and was at best intended to provide some comfort to credit markets. It failed, since Nvidia CDS is now trading at all time wides.
Broadcom’s chief executive officer said in March that the company expects AI chip sales to top $100 billion next year. The chipmaker has also struck other partnerships, including an accord with Apple that’s expected to be worth more than $30 billion. Broadcom’s valuation has soared in recent years, propelled by agreements to make custom AI chips for firms like OpenAI.
After briefly declining, Broadcom shares rose as much as 1.1% in late trading after Bloomberg News reported on the discussions. The stock had climbed 5.2% this year through the close. But forget about the stock: these days all the action is in the bond trading and/or Credit Default Swap land, and is why Broadcom’s massive new bond deal illustrates the US Treasury’s uphill task in containing long-bond yields
Broadcom’s debt is interesting because its recent competition for Google’s TPU business has been accompanied by a spike in CDS. And, as Bloomberg notes, the monster debt deal will do little to alleviate that pressure and will likely feed down to the CDS of other chip/hyperscaler credit.
As we noted in our EOD wrap, hyperscaler CDS is already back near the July all-time wides, with names that issue new debt seeing clear spikes in CDS pushing their default risk slowly but surely every higher.
The problem is that unlike equities, where there apparently is an infinite number of greater fools using other people’s money to force daily gamma squeezes, there will come a time – and yield – when the bond market simply refuses to keep funding these endless AI boondoggles, especially when China can now do pretty much everything faster, cheaper and almost as effectively. At that point, the AI bubble will finally burst.
END’
AI
Bessent’s “Big Toolkit” Vs Black Gold: Goldman One-Delta Desk Smells ‘Stagflationary Stench’ In Markets
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s expanded “big toolkit” of Treasury buybacks and market signaling is clashing with rising oil prices (“black gold”), while Goldman Sachs’ One-Delta (Delta One) trading desk is flagging a “stagflationary stench” in markets.
zerohedge.com
Bessent, in a CNBC interview around August 20, 2026, defended larger Treasury buybacks (beyond routine levels, potentially more than $4 billion per issue in thinly traded long-end areas like the 30-year). He described a “big toolkit” for intervention, arguing that current yields do not reflect underlying fundamentals, August liquidity is poor due to corporate issuance, and markets are overreacting to headlines (including the Iran situation). He framed it partly as signaling to restore equilibrium and noted forthcoming focus on fiscal consolidation. He has repeatedly called energy/oil price spikes “temporary” or “transitory,” tied to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz dynamics, while asserting the broader economy remains resilient and that supply measures (or resolution) will bring prices lower.
cnbc.com
Markets pushed back quickly. Overnight rejection of the bond-market support was followed by higher long-end yields, weaker equities (notable declines in major indexes), rising oil, and higher gold—moves that do not signal broad confidence in the intervention or the “temporary” oil narrative. Bessent has acknowledged limited understanding of some short-term oil spikes while emphasizing asymmetric information and control over key energy routes.
fxstreet.com
“Black gold” (oil) remains the flashpoint. Prices have been elevated amid Iran-related disruptions/risks to Hormuz flows, with prior Goldman and other bank forecasts adjusting higher on prolonged supply shocks (though some later views anticipated eventual surplus once flows normalize). Bessent’s stance—that this is noise and the administration has levers (sanctions adjustments, naval presence, domestic production push)—contrasts with market pricing of stickier energy inflation risks.
cnbc.com
Goldman Sachs’ One-Delta/Delta One desk (known for index/equity derivative and flow commentary, with figures like Rich Privorotsky previously highlighting stretched positioning and AI/capex themes) is reportedly detecting stagflationary signals: the combination of higher energy costs/inflation pressure alongside bond-market stress, weaker risk assets, and questions about growth resilience. This fits a broader pattern in which Goldman and others have discussed stagflation or “slowflation” risks in recent years amid tariffs, energy shocks, fiscal dynamics, and sticky prices—often recommending hedges via commodities, defensives, or related baskets when growth slows while inflation stays elevated.
news.futunn.com
In short, Bessent is leaning on fiscal/market tools and a transitory-oil message to stabilize the long end and confidence. Rising oil and the simultaneous rise in yields + drop in stocks + lift in gold are producing the classic stagflationary odor that trading desks are noting. Whether the toolkit prevails or energy/geopolitical pressures dominate remains the near-term market question. The ZeroHedge piece (published August 21, 2026) frames this tension directly; full details sit behind its premium paywall.
END
FROM LAST NIGHT
Lacy Hunt: Fed’s Been “Stealth-Easing” Since December
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 10:25 AM
“We’re seeing a major secular shift, that we’re now moving into a period of capital shortage, as well as we’re witnessing the end of the three-decade period of globalization, which led to significant disinflation.”
That prediction comes from Dr. Lacy Hunt, once one of the bond market’s most prominent bulls and secular disinflationists. Well… no longer. He’s now a seller of U.S. long-dated bonds and suggested during last night’s discussion on ZeroHedge that he’s eyeing gold favorably.
Lacy told Thoughtful Money’s Adam Taggart and Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital that inflation is here to stay so get used to it and plan accordingly:
“There will be intermittent episodes when the secular forces will fade, but the big picture is considerably different. We’re going to have higher inflation. We’re going to have greater volatility in inflation. The trend in interest rate is going to be higher. And we’re going to have generally poor economic performance.”
Here were the highlights of Lacy’s tour de force, but we highly recommend the full 75-minute discussion in its entirety:
Net national savings “very close to zero”
Hunt began his case with two forces: a shortage of capital and the reversal of globalization.
“The Federal Reserve cannot solve the capital shortage situation. They can increase the money supply, but to have physical investment you need saving out of income.”
Money printing and rising rates has an increasingly deleterious effect on private investment, which will be vital to keep up with the AI boom. Higher government bond yields means the private sector needs to work harder to compete… why take risk when Uncle Sam guarantees 5% or more?
“We’re financing artificial intelligence. We’re building an expansion of semiconductors. We need to expand the electrical grid… We’ve got a massive federal budget deficit that’s deteriorating.”
Atop that, Hunt said net national saving is “very close to zero.” Net national savings is defined as the total amount of money saved by households, businesses, and the government minus the cost of replacing worn-out capital goods (depreciation).
“So there is going to be this tremendous demand for capital, which suggests that real interest rates will have to rise. And because the overall inflation is going to be going up at the same time, that means that this will reinforce the rise in nominal interest.”
Fed’s been “stealth easing” since December
Since mid-December, the Fed’s balance sheet has expanded by roughly $200 billion. So for all the talk of a hawkish Fed, they’re still a net buyer of Treasuries. Additionally, bank deposits and bank lending are up.
“Bank deposits and bank loans in particular, they’ve surged very dramatically since mid-December… so now you have an uptick in deposit growth and money supply growth, which in my opinion is moving further into the inflationary direction.”
This kind of monetary support, Lacy argued, only creates a longer-term problem by encouraging investment in financial assets rather than productive ones.
“When the Federal Reserve comes in and gives a signal to the market that they’re going to support the stock market… then what that serves to do is it’s a signal to the corporate managers that they should put more investment in financial assets and less investment in real assets.”
“But here’s the rub. It’s the real assets that raise the standard of living, not the financial investments.”
Watch Lacy’s full deep dive below or listen on the ZeroHedge Spotify. If one of the longest running bond bulls is throwing in the towel… it might be time to pay attention.
KING NEWS
| The King Report August 21, 2026 Issue 7810 | Independent View of the News |
| @ABC: Walmart experienced the slowest growth in comparable sales at U.S. stores in six years… and it offered a cautious outlook for the year, sending shares down 6% before the opening bell Thursday… (comp sales) rose 2.6% in the second quarter… 4.1% in the previous quarter… Excluding the wellness category that includes Walmart’s pharmacies, comparable sales increased 3.4% in the second quarter… below industry analyst expectations for a 3.8% increase, according to FactSet… Walmart’s quarterly net income was $6.37 billion, or 80 cents per share, in the three-month period ended July 31. Adjusted per-share results were 81 cents, easily topping the 74 cents Wall Street had expected… Sales rose 5.9% to $187.94 billion. Analysts were predicting $186.62 billion… https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/walmart-strong-quarter-outlook-reserved-135799988 Walmart expects Q3 EPS of .62 to .64 and sales +3% to +3.5%. .68 and sales of $188.19 B exp. @charliebilello: Over the last 40 years, College Tuition and Fees in the US have increased by 655% (7x) while overall Consumer Prices (US CPI) are up 204% (3x). https://x.com/charliebilello/status/2090170181213405635 Absolutely insane stat: 15 U.S. colleges now cost more than $100,000 per year. That’s $400,000+ for a four-year degree. Students are not getting anywhere near $400,000 worth of value from these schools. Higher education is the most overpriced product in America. https://x.com/charliebilello/status/2090144990286565768 In Thursday’s missive, we noted that traders poured into ESUs and NQUs on their Wednesday opening on expectations of the expiry manipulation and squeeze on August calls. However, equity futures made their daily highs an hour after the 18:00 ET opening. After a moderate retreat, ESUs traded sideways until they broke down about 10 minutes after the 3 ET European opening, ESUs sank to 7680.25 at 8:36 ET. Conditioned traders bought for the expected NYSE opening rally. ESUs rose to 7716.25 at 9:44 ET. Pros dumped; ESUs fell to 7691.75 at 10:17 ET. Near 10:45 ET: S&P 500 -0.23%, DJIA -0.62%, DJTA +0.17%, Nasdaq -0.54%, Nas 100 -0.34%, SOX Index +0.75%; S&P Energy +1.49%, Utes +0.42%; Consumer Staples -1.97%, Consumer Discretionary -1.795, Health Care -1.07%, Comm Services -0.53% Energy commodities rallies smartly on Trump declaration of economic war on Iran. Sept WTI hit 87.69, +$2.30; Sept Diesel hit 4.5097 +5.74¢; Sept Gasoline hit 3.287, +3.24¢; Oct Brent hit 94.72, +$3.10 The energy rally killed USUs. After hitting a high of 110 9/32, +10/32, at 22:42 ET, USUs declined to 108 31/32, -1 pt, at 8:34 ET. USUs then rallied because Bessent intervened again! Bessent says Treasury buyback operation could be more than $4 billion In a live interview, Bessent said his department is going “make a market” in the longer-dated securities where yields have been surging lately… “We’re going to increase the size of the buyback,” he said. “I would note that it could be more than the 4 billion per issue.”… “We have a big toolkit, so we’ll see,” he said. “Part of it is signaling here and to show that we believe that the yields don’t reflect the underlying fundamentals.”… He also characterized liquidity for the 30-year bond as “very poor,” providing another incentive for Treasury to intervene in what normally is a robust market. (Fundamentals dictate much higher interest rates!) “There’s nothing magic about the 40 trillion number, and we can grow our way out of that,” Bessent said. “Our message to our allies, our trading partners, is that global growth is the way to take care of this mountain of debt,” he added. (WRONG! The math is clear; the only recourse is to “inflate or die.”) https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/20/bessent-says-treasury-buyback-operation-could-be-more-than-4-billion.html @RapidResponse47: “Do you think that we’ve seen peak deficit?” @SecScottBessent: “I think there’s a very, very good chance we have. We are going to be laser-focused.” (Quit insulting one’s intelligence!) https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2090464027344293958 The US Treasury Secretary felt the need to verbally intervene for the 2nd consecutive day and warn that he and the US Treasury would now be active traders (“make a market”) in US bonds and notes. NB: The US Treasury Sec is so scared that he and the US Treasury will be market makers, active traders, in US Treasury bonds and notes to rig them! This should disgust and alarm everyone! Bonds: US Rigged! Stocks: US Rigged! Yen/Dollar: US-Japan Rigged! Oil: Rigged! We’re old enough to recall when experts, analysts and pundits proudly shilled “freely traded markets” while mocking and belittling countries with command economies and ‘stabilized markets.’ Mr. Bond was displeased with the forex speculator turned US Treasury Sec. After algos and day traders took USUs to 109 25/32 at 11:02 ET on Bessent’s latest intervention, sellers reappeared. USUs fell to 109 4/32 at 11:33 ET. Part of this selling spree was liquidation for the European close. Precious metals rallied sharply. What will Fed inflation hawks do regarding Bessent? Fed’s Musalem on CNBC: Underlying inflation is between 2.5%-3%. It is too high and must be lowered. Given the current Fed rates, I see a lower probability of getting inflation to 2%. Hiking rates now could save more aggressive action later… I want inflation down to 2% within 18 months. 11:32 ET St. Louis Fed President Musalem added that he sees no inflation pressure coming from the labor market. Will more Fed hawks go public with their concerns about inflation and the need to hike rates now that Bessent is taking actions that stoke inflation? Bessent felt the need to resurface. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: Energy-Driven Inflation Shock Is Temporary @cspan: U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent (on bond market rescinded Wed rally): “We are trying to bring the market back to equilibrium in a thinly traded market… I’m confident that bonds will continue climbing… We got a spike in oil prices today that I don’t really understand… Oil prices will come down sooner…” 11:36 ET https://x.com/cspan/status/2090462886728552687 @HFI_Research: Bessent really said we have an oil price spike he doesn’t understand. Really? If you are going to lie, at least try. @cspan: U.S. Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent on $40 trillion national debt: “Remember we did not get here in a day; we were left with a mess. The Biden administration had the highest deficit to GDP in history.” https://x.com/cspan/status/2090463569334706305 Ex-Merrill Chief Economist David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie: In defending Scott Bessent’s foray into the long end of the Treasury curve (Mr. Intervention), Donald Trump had the temerity to publicly lament that interest rates are “artificially high” and “ridiculous.” But what is not “artificial,” and is truly “ridiculous,” is that during his time in office, the national debt has ballooned by nearly $12 trillion. In other words, 30% of all the federal debt the United States has incurred in its 250-year history has come under his watch. Can’t blame Joe Biden for this one. Bessent tells US allies ‘you’re either with us or against us’ on Iran sanctions: ‘We are going to collapse this regime’ https://trib.al/v5wKuOr Bessent stated that the underlying US economy is strong. Any idiot can generate GDP growth with trillions of dollars of government/deficit spending! WSJ’s @NickTimiraos with excerpts from Bessent’s remarks on CNBC: “We continue to have a strong dollar policy. And the strong dollar policy is that the U.S. economy is pulling away from the rest of the world. When I look, we have 6.5% nominal growth… But everything we’re seeing in terms of revenue growth at companies, up about 12%, so the underlying economy, I think, is very strong. And the only inflationary impulses that we’re seeing are coming from the energy, which is temporary.” https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/2090495097083433294 Here’s where Bessent’s arrogance and hubris induced the ex-forex speculator to make an egregious error: “People have bad information. I have asymmetric information, so I think that the market should think, well, why would we have joined the Japanese in the intervention at this time? Do we know something the market doesn’t know that, in terms of being willing to do you know what I would call a Treasury twist here in terms of the bond market? What do I know that the market doesn’t know? So, I think the market’s probably gotten a little ahead of itself, a lot of people not much to do in August.” https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/2090490232525443516 Bessent apparently thought that he was rolling clueless members of Congress with his threat that he has inside information with the insinuation that his inside information is bullish for the yen and US bonds. Mr. Market, who is infinitely wiser than members of Congress and a one-trick ex-forex speculator, knew the opposite is true: Bessent has inside info that frightened him into a historic yen/$ intervention and consecutive days of verbal intervention to boost US bonds. @PeterSchiff: Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said the free market is mispricing long-term bond yields. So he wants to use the superior judgment and power of central government planners to correct the mistakes of capitalism. Good thing we didn’t elect a Democratic Socialist president. USUs plodded up to 109 19/32 at 15:00 ET on Bessent; but were 109 9/32, -32/32 at the NYSE close. The yen/$ hit a daily high of 159.182 at 16:21 ET. Sept WTI was +$2.16, Sept Gasoline +2.24¢ and Sept Diesel +2.97¢; Dec AU was $33.20 at the time. @ZiggyWumpus: What if the man who’s decided he’s smarter than markets and should set the world’s oil price, currency prices, treasury prices, and stock prices is really just an idiot? The S&P 500 Index hit its daily high (7699.96) at 12:04 ET on Bessent. It then intractably fell to 7649.90 at 14:16 ET. After a modest bounce, the index traded in a 7-handle range until then broke lower at 15:33 ET. The S&P 500 hit its daily low (7639.01) at 15:59 ET. @staunovo: The Trump administration is authorizing an early shift to the sale of wintertime gasoline blends, its latest move to blunt fuel costs and supply concerns stoked by the war in Iran. The Environmental Protection Agency announced Thursday it was relaxing normal summertime gasoline requirements. The switch, which enables the use of a dirtier-burning wintertime fuel blend, typically happens in mid September. Starting Sept. 1 (stead of the usual September 16), the waiver allows the sale of gasoline blended with 10% ethanol that evaporates faster than fuel typically sold during summer. (Energy analysts said this 2-week ploy was ‘meaningless.’) @Acyn: Trump: I have the absolute right to cut off all business with a country like Switzerland. There’s 60 countries like that. They live off the United States… So why are we paying higher interest rates than them?…” https://x.com/Acyn/status/2090162881765810607 MIT Prof Economics Emeritus @ojblanchard1: I had promised myself not to react to Trump declarations. Promise not fulfilled. This is so absurd that I have not found the strength to resist. Positive aspects of previous session MU +3.97%, SNDK +2.02% SOX Index +0.53% Negative aspects of previous session Team Trump is conducting historic interventions in the markets. This always ends very badly! For the 2nd straight day, Bessent issued verbal intervention to save bonds. Bessent thinks he can snow and mock Mr. Market like he does Congresspeople and their staffs. S&P 500 -0.87%, DJIA -1.32%, SJTA -0.37%, Nasdaq -1.0%, Nas 100 -0.72%, PHLX Housing -2.12% SP Consumer Staples -1.93%, Cons Discr -1.77%, Ind – 1.22%, Financials -0.97%, Comm Serv -0.71%, USUs were a point below their 110 9/32 high at 16:55 ET Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is Bessent getting ‘too clever by half?’ He is setting the US & himself up a mighty fall! Is Bessent going to have daily sermon to euchre people into buying US bonds? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7660.04 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7699.96 (12:04 ET); 7639.01 (15:59 ET) After the close @SecScottBessent: We want to bring the G20 back to its core mission. That mission is talking about what countries can do, what economies can do, and how we can band together to achieve better global growth. Our message to our allies and our trading partners is that global growth is the way to take care of this mountain of debt. (Is manipulating and rigging markets a core mission? https://x.com/SecScottBessent/status/2090546665937908219 Fed Balance Sheet: -$14.256B on Accrued Interest -$17.201B; Reserves -$8.772B For many moons, beaucoup pundits, analysts, and economists wonder when the mushrooming debt would matter. Just like with stock bubbles, it doesn’t matter until it matters – and no one knows when it matters. However, often a huge Tipping Point is preceded by smaller tipping points. See the USSR collapse! The Iran War is creating a tipping point for energy products and inflation. Japan is fighting off a tipping point. The Fed must deal with an inflation tipping point that could tip the dollar and US bonds. And there is the historic AI Bubble that could trip numerous tipping points. It is time for maximum safety because unlike other bubbles and systemic problems over the past century or so, THE Tipping Point for US Debt and the US bond market appears to be in play. @MichaelMOTTCM: The S&P 500 fell by nearly 90 bps today and closed below its 10-day exponential moving average for the first time since July 31. That could be important, as that moving average can at times signal a reversal in trend. It is also important that the index has now flipped back into negative gamma, which could mean volatility expands as dealer hedging flows move with the market, based on my math. (Beaucoup short-term traders and swings traders slavish follow the 10-day EMA!) Today is August Expiration and a Summer Friday. Mr. Market is not fooled by Bessent, Trump, and their schemes. Algos, guppies, and day traders will react to headlines and social media post. But Mr. Market knows the incessant interventions are a clear indication of trouble and desperation. Barring more verbal intervention or news, today’s trading could be lackluster because it’s the final summer Friday before most schools open (high absenteeism) and next week has 3 impactful events. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh gives the keynote speech at 10AM ET next Friday, August 28, at the KC Jackson Hole Symposium. July PCE is due that Friday morning. And Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday, August 26 after the close. ESUs +4.75, NQUs are +29.75, USUs -4/32; WTI Oil -$0.55; Gasoline -1.04¢, ¥/$ 159.053 at 20:37 ET. Expected Econ Data: August S& P Global US Manufacturing PM 53.9, Services PMI 54 S&P 500 50-eay MA: 7533; 100-day MA: 7366; 200-day MA: 7090 (S&P 500 Close 7641.16) DJIA 50-day MA: 52,522; 100-day MA: 50,902; 200-day MA: 49,525 (DJIA Close 52,522.13) (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) @Newsforce: NYC is considering financial help for grocery stores that could lose business to Mamdani’s planned city-run supermarkets. The city’s Economic Development Corporation official Waverly Neer said grants could be considered for affected grocers, though the agency later said no grant program is currently planned. The city is now exploring other ways to support local stores as the supermarket plan moves forward. Socialism/communism/command economies beget perpetual government support self-reinforcing loops. | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
They’re Getting Revenge, Starting Today…
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 10:05 AM
Via the Tom Woods Letter,
I absolutely insist to you: I really am trying to stop writing about this topic. But too much insanity keeps breaking out, and I have no choice but to comment on it.
You know the story: a Cambridge academic, Jason Arday, was found to have plagiarized his dissertation, borrowed heavily from others in his published articles, produced essentially worthless research, called the police on a reporter and on a professor who asked questions about his resume, invented wild tales of athletic and academic achievement as well as philanthropic work, and (of course) accused his critics of “racism.” And then, late last week, he was found dead at his home in an apparent suicide.
That would have been it, but the left – instead of the embarrassment it should feel at having promoted the greatest academic charlatan of the past ten years (and that’s saying something) – is trying to play the victim here: mean right-wingers in the media shouldn’t have pushed so hard on the Arday story.
This is coming from people who call their enemies Nazis 24 hours a day without thinking there might be a problem with that.
Anyway, here’s the latest: the university that employs Nathan Cofnas, the academic who first broke the story about Jason Arday’s plagiarism and worthless “research,” is now being investigated by his own university for breaking the story.
Just when you think academia can’t be a bigger joke, it always finds some way to outdo itself.
Ghent University rector Petra de Sutter, former leader of the Green Party, issued a statement to the effect that while Ghent attaches “great importance to academic freedom and to open academic debate, even when views are controversial,” it wants the world to know that of course it doesn’t really mean that:
“That freedom is not unlimited. It goes hand in hand with responsibility and may be restricted in order to protect the rights of others.
“For this reason, the university takes the recent public statements made by a postdoctoral researcher at Ghent University regarding this matter very seriously. Ghent University has decided to take appropriate action within its powers and the applicable framework.”
Well, we just found out what that means.
They just suspended Nathan Cofnas, and he will almost surely be fired.
Cofnas wrote the original report on Jason Arday that forced academia to take notice. What he found was too embarrassing not to elicit a response. And his point is: Arday is not an isolated case. For that he cannot be forgiven.
As Cofnas put it on August 11:
In 2023, the Guardian itself (!) published a breathless article titled “Jason Arday: he learned to talk at 11 and read at 18 – then became Cambridge’s youngest Black professor.”
More than a dozen academic journals gave the imprimatur of “peer review” to Arday’s plagiarized wokebabble.
The prestigious New York publisher Simon & Schuster is still going ahead with his memoirs.
Now the Guardian wants us to think this is just about “one academic and his bosses at Cambridge”?
There are thousands of Jason Ardays in universities all over the Western world. The only thing special about Arday is that he took the plagiarism and lies about his personal life too far, so there was a hook for a news story. But even that wasn’t enough to get him removed from academia. Until last Wednesday Cambridge was still smearing his critics as waging a “vile campaign.” He crossed the line not by being an incompetent fraud, but by claiming prestigious affiliations that he didn’t have, creating conflict between Cambridge and other universities.
“DEI” means achieving representation by doing away with elementary standards for certain people based on race. Just take a look at the content of “peer-reviewed” journals like Whiteness in Education and Educational Philosophy and Theory. The other papers in these journals are just like those written by Arday—someone who is now widely recognized to be mentally disabled.
The people trying to write this off as a fluke or an isolated case of “research misconduct” are at best delusional. The ideology of elite institutions is DEI, and DEI is Jason Arday.
This was the most embarrassing academic episode of my lifetime. Everyone just witnessed a clear-cut case of academic fraud, a man who literally called the police on people who questioned his resume, and the overwhelming response from academia was to scream “racism” and sign a petition in his defense.
After they did that, the really embarrassing stuff came out, and they persisted.
So the mask is off, in case there’s still anyone out there who didn’t know what was behind it. The whole edifice of academia nowadays is held together with Scotch tape and piano wire, and slogans.
The institutions will survive as shells of their former selves, but what was once inside will disappear. Adrian Vermeule, the one sane person at Harvard Law School, just wrote: “The elite universities are of course going to survive. They’ve been around forever and will continue on in some form. What will not survive, however, is a certain idea of the scholarly mission and life. It died of its own weakness, an inability to resist invading barbarians.”
END
NEW YORK/ALBANY
White American woman radicalized
(zerohedge)
Woman Charged In ISIS-Inspired Plot To Bomb NY State Capitol
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 12:45 PM
Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,
FBI agents foiled an alleged ISIS-inspired bomb plot on the New York State Capitol on Aug. 19 that they say was concocted by a local woman who had pledged allegiance to the terrorist group earlier this year.
Jessica Bowie, 35, was captured by surveillance while doing reconnaissance on the New York Capitol in an undated photo. U.S. Department of Justice
Jessica Bowie, 35, of Albany, New York, was formally charged on Aug. 20 with attempting to provide material support to a designated foreign terrorist organization, the U.S. Department of Justice announced.
The FBI discovered and stopped the alleged plot, which included a plan to kill state senators and destroy the building, the statement said.
“As alleged, Bowie plotted to deploy an explosive device at the New York State Capitol, intending to kill public officials and to destroy ‘as much of the building as possible’ before fleeing to ISIS‑controlled territory in Syria,” Assistant Attorney General for National Security John A. Eisenberg said in a statement.
The New York State Capitol, built between 1867 and 1899, houses the governor’s office, the state Legislature, and the famous Million Dollar Staircase.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said on X that she was grateful the FBI and the New York State Police made the arrest. The state strengthened security at the Capitol and across the government after a rise in violence and threats against public officials this year, she said.
“While there is no immediate threat at this time, we will continue working closely with our law enforcement partners to protect New Yorkers and keep our communities safe,” Hochul said in her post.
FBI Special Agent Joshua Parker, assigned to the Joint Terrorism Task Force in Albany, detailed the investigation into Bowie’s alleged plans in the court complaint.
Bowie converted to Islam about five years ago and adopted the Islamic name “Aisha Saif,” Parker said.
She also used social media to spread anti-American messages using a dozen profiles, he said.
Jessica Bowie is seen on store surveillance buying items that authorities say were meant to build an explosive device. U.S. Department of Justice
Between May and July, prosecutors said several of her accounts praised Allah for the 9/11 terrorist attack in New York in 2001 and allegedly also said she wanted to poison infidels. She also allegedly relayed other messages supporting terrorism, according to the FBI.
On May 28, Bowie posted messages indicating she had pledged allegiance to the ISIS terrorist group and to people who engage in jihad, which can mean “violence” when used by the terrorist organization and its members, according to Parker.
Authorities allege Bowie planned the attack on the New York State Capitol from about July 16 to Aug. 17.
An FBI confidential source posing as an ISIS facilitator spoke with Bowie through a messaging app, according to the complaint. Bowie allegedly discussed her plans to attack the building in Albany over the next two weeks.
On July 16, an FBI source acting as an ISIS facilitator asked Bowie about her views, and she allegedly told him “jihad is an obligation until the day of judgment.”
That same day, Bowie allegedly asked for help on another social media platform to carry out the attack and later described the location as the state Capitol.
Parker said Bowie also mentioned she wanted to fly to Syria to join other ISIS-controlled territories.
Bowie then pledged her allegiance to the leader of ISIS on July 17 and surveilled the Capitol, walking around the building on five occasions between July 21 and Aug. 9, according to court documents.
Messages sent later suggested Bowie allegedly wanted to destroy as much of the building as possible and kill state senators while they were meeting. Investigators say she also wanted to destroy a lot of important documents.
The New York Capitol in Albany on June 20, 2023. Hans Pennink/AP Photo
Investigators recorded Bowie at a home improvement store where she allegedly purchased about $200 worth of items to create a bomb on Aug. 5.
FBI informants met again with Bowie in a car on Aug. 19 when they say she told them she was ready to carry out the attack.
“Bowie also told [a paid FBI informant] that she went from a little girl waving an American flag after 9/11 to now having stickers of the fallen towers,” Parker wrote in the complaint.
She left the meeting with a firearm, magazine, and ammunition, and a fake explosive device in her bag. She was arrested by the FBI as she exited the car, according to the complaint.
The complaint says Bowie told FBI agents after her arrest, “There’s no helping me, you guys know enough, there’s no helping me, I’m … going to prison for the rest of my life.”
Bowie remains in federal custody at the Schenectady County Jail and was not reachable for comment.
She faces a maximum of 20 years in federal prison, a fine of up to $250,000, and a lifetime term of supervised release if convicted.
Her lawyers at the Federal Public Defender’s Office in the Northern District of New York didn’t immediately return a request for comment.
END
ICE Arrests 5 Suspected Child Predators In Undercover Operation
Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – 03:45 PM
Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrested five suspected child predators during an operation in Omaha, Nebraska, between Aug. 12 and 14, the agency said in an Aug. 20 statement.
The undercover operation was carried out by ICE’s Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) Omaha unit together with state and local partners. Among the five arrested and charged, three had prior convictions for sexual crimes against children and were also listed on sex offender registries, the agency said.
If convicted on the new charges, these three individuals could face enhanced penalties, likely adding 10 more years to any sentence.
ICE said the HSI is “delivering on President Trump and Secretary Mullin’s mandate to protect America’s children.”
More than 5,000 child predators and human traffickers have been arrested since President Donald Trump took office in January 2025, according to an Aug. 18 White House statement.
Trump has backed law enforcement agencies and empowered the Federal Bureau of Investigation to “hunt predators instead of political targets,” the White House said.
In its recent statement, ICE said that one of the arrested individuals, Bryan Dady, 48, a U.S. citizen, has been listed in Nebraska’s sex offender registry for a 2023 conviction for enticing a 9-year-old girl. The person was also arrested in January this year on new charges alleging the grooming and enticement of a 13-year-old.
Another individual, Jocsan Aparicio Santos, 39, a Mexican citizen with lawful permanent residency in the United States, is currently on a sex offender registry for a 2010 conviction linked to assaulting a 15-year-old girl.
A third individual, Logan Trigg, 29, an American citizen, is also on a sex offender registry for a conviction related to sexually assaulting a 13-year-old girl.
The fourth person, Law Eh, 39, a naturalized American from Burma, also known as Myanmar, was charged with possessing files containing child sexual abuse material, while the fifth, Tillian Hutton, 25, another U.S. citizen, is facing charges of sex trafficking children.
All five suspects intended to engage in sexual acts with children, according to ICE.
“These cases are not hypothetical; they show a real demand for the sexual exploitation of children in our community,” HSI Kansas City Special Agent in Charge Rick Sabatini said in the statement.
“They show why law enforcement must continue to identify and disrupt offenders before they have the opportunity to harm a child.”
According to ICE, the HSI Omaha Metro Juvenile Sex Trafficking Task Force has obtained 21 federal convictions for sex trafficking children since 2021.
The Epoch Times reached out to the public attorneys representing the charged individuals but did not receive any response by publication time.
Child Trafficking, Exploitation
According to data from the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children, it received more than 113,500 reports of potential child sex trafficking last year, a 323 percent increase from 2024.
A child can be trafficked by family members, strangers, and gangs. In some cases, exploitation of children may not involve any trafficking. Instead, the children may be offered food, money, or shelter in exchange for sexual engagement.
Some of the risk factors of child trafficking include intergenerational sexual abuse, low self-esteem, substance abuse, gang activity, and developmental or physical disabilities, the center said.
Legislative actions have been taken to address the issue of child exploitation. On June 10, Trump signed the Secure America Act into law, which contained a provision to combat child exploitation.
The provision provided the Department of Homeland Security with $108.5 million to hire 200 new child exploitation investigators and analysts, according to a June 9 statement from the office of Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who introduced the provision.
Before the legislation was in place, Homeland Security employed seven full-time specialists to identify child exploitation victims, the statement said.
“That’s two hundred new law enforcement officers to find and rescue kids trafficked by predators and a new initiative to coordinate local, state, and federal enforcement,” Hawley said in the statement. “This is the biggest surge against online child exploitation ever by the federal government. It’s time to rescue these kids.”
In an unrelated operation, the U.S. Marshals Service said on Aug. 10 that 48 missing children from Massachusetts were rescued during a multi-agency operation tied to the FIFA World Cup.
The agency said the rescued children were between 12 and 17 years old. Several of them were found outside state borders after investigators tracked leads across the country and to multiple states. The children have since been reunited with their families or referred to child welfare and victim services, the service said.
In another major operation conducted in April, Operation Iron Pursuit, the FBI targeted alleged child exploitation predators across the United States. The effort led to the rescue of more than 200 child victims and the arrests of more than 350 individuals, the FBI said in a May 15 statement.
An earlier effort, the two-week Operation Relentless Justice conducted in December, resulted in 205 child victims being located and 293 alleged offenders being arrested.
GREG HUNTER…
harveyorganblog.com 
