EXCHANGE: COMEX
SEPT 8
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT./2026: 0 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 0 OZ or 0.0000 TONNES
total notices so far: 2555 contracts FOR 25,500 OZ OR 7.947 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 7 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 35,000 OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5039 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 25.195 million oz
GLD
SEPT: INITIAL STANDING: 24.172 MILLION OZ//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 37 CONTRACT OR 185,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON//STANDING REDUCES TO 27.170 MILLION OZ//
SEPT: INITIAL STANDING 8.756 MILLION OZ//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 185,000 OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON//STANDING REDUCES TO 27.170 MILLION OZ
GOLD COMEX OUTLINE;
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 345 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 34,500 OZ/ (1.073 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 345 CONTRACTS OR 34500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 24.635 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES OF GOLD.
JUNE; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 64.496 TONNES.(CME CORRECTED) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.0186 TONNES/NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRSST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F 0.0062 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 40.824TONNES
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 5TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 5 CONTRACTS FOR 500 OZ OR 0.0155 TONNESS TO OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 200 CONTRACTS OR 20,000 OZ OR 6.220 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.7045 TONNES TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.552 TONNES TO OUR FIRST 0.0715 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.9688 AND THEN ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 39 CONTRACTS FOR 3,900 OZ OR 0.1213 TONNES//STANDING THUS ADVANCES TO 67.2441 TONNES
SEPT: INITIAL STANDING: 8.756 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2 CONTRACTS OR 200 OZ QUEUE JUMP (.00622 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO, 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6/2208 TONNES//// // NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 15.471 TONNES..
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS IN GOLD ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 651 CONTRACTS WITH 1620 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL SIZED 975 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.
THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 651 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED AND CRIMINAL 1045 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON .
GOLD PRICE FELL BY $63.50
STANDING FOR THE LAST 8 MONTHS JANUARY TO AUGUST:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW FINAL STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 345 CONTRACTS/34,500 OZ// 1.073 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MAY// 5 OCCASIONS: 24.635 TONNES///NEW FINAL STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER JUMP OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING 127.03 TONNES//FINAL
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0000 TONNES/ PLUS 0.0062 TONNES EX FOR RISK///NEW STANDING FOR GOLD REMAINS AT 40.824TONNES.
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST 0.0715 TONNES EXCHANGE TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 1.552 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF: 1.7045//TOTAL FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK 3.3312 TONNES TO OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 200 CONTRACTS FOR 0.6220 TONNES/TO OUR 5TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.0155 TONNES//TOTALL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.9688 TONNES TO OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.1213 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.2441 TONNES
SEPT: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.756 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 200 OZ QUEUE JUMP (.00622 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SECOND 1000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO OUR FIRST: THUS// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 6.2208 TONNES// NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 15.471 TONNES.
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
YEAR 2026:
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 118.430 TONNES
JUNE: 142.053 TONNES
JULY: 163.82 TONNES
AUGUST: 151.107 TONNES
SEPT: 29.863 TONNES
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SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.85 PTS OR 0.20%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 95.94 PTS OR 0.38%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 1121.04 PTS OR 1.69%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.98%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7106
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7007 Oil UP TO 93.90 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 98.62 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7106 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7097 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMITS
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL 92 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 104,124
EFP ISSUANCE 25 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 25 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 92 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 25 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A SMALL GAIN OF 117 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $1.09
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 0.585 MILLION PAPER OZ
STANDING SEPT AT 27.170 MILLION OZ
SILVER PRICE LOSS OF $1.09
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR 1624 CONTRACTS TO 412,984 STILL WELL ABOVE ITS NEW LOW OF 326,052 OI SET JUNE 3, CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 345,705 SET (MAY 28) AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 353,490 SET MAY 27.. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 326,052 //JUNE 3 2026 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,450.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING//RAID. IT SEEMS THAT MANY OF THE SPECULATORS THAT HAVE NOW CONTINUED AGAIN TO BE ON THE SHORT SIDE WITH BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE AND THESE GUYS WERE AGAIN OBLITERATED YESTERDAY WHEN THE LONGS TENDERED FOR DELIVERY:
CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS JULY CONTRACT MONTH!!
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (651 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD (DOWN $63.50)
WE THUS HAD A SMALL LOSS IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES (651 CONTRACTS), WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A SMALL CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE EQUATING TO 975 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A 0 CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD. TOTAL THUS SO FAR THIS MONTH: 2000 CONTRACTS//200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES (2 OCCASIONS)
MONTH OF MAY RECORD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK: THE HIGHEST EVER ISSUANCE!!
MAY 22 RECORDS THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 12.4416 TONNES. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THE THIRD ON MAY 18 , THEN MAY 21 OUR 4TH ISSUANCE AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY, OUR 5TH ISSUANCE. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH JULY AND AUGUST
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS OR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES.
JUNE: 0 IN GOLD. THUS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IN GOLD ZERO NOTICES WERE FILED.
JULY: 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES
AUGUST: 1276 CONTRACTS FOR 127,600 OZ OR 3.9688 TONNES (5 OCCASIONS THIS MONTH)
SEPT: 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNESS (TWO OCCASIONS)
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO AUGUST:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 131+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS, 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
JUNE: ZERO
JULY 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES. I DOUBT VERY MUCH THAT THIS IS A CENTRAL BANK
AUGUST: 1276 CONTRACTS FOR 127,600 OZ OR 3.9688 TONNES//5 OCCASIONS
SEPT: SO FAR: 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES/TWO OCCASIONS
DETAILS ON OUR NEW AUG COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A SMALL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 651 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE (DOWN $63.50). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE/JULY/AUG CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A FAIR SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1946 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS.
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND MAY WITH ITS 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 12.4436 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 24.635 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12, MAY 18 MAY 21 AND NOW MAY 22..
THEN IT SLOWS DOWN!
JUNE: ZERO FOR THE MONTH
JULY: 2 SO FAR FOR 200 IZ IR 0.00622 TONNES
AUGUST: 1276 CONTRACTS FOR 127,600 OZ OR 3.9688 TONNES
SEPT: 2000 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES (TWO OCCASIONS)
WE MUST ALSO REMEMBER THAT THE FRBNY IS SHORT 131+ TONNES OF GOLD, THIS COMMENCED ON JAN 2 2023 AS THEY REFUSE TO COVER DESPITE THE BIS’S PLEA TO DO SO.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 16 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2025
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING FINALIZES AT 157.879 TONNES, ITS HIGHEST STANDING RECORDED IN OVER 4 YEARS.
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 34,500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNESS
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE SUBTRACT AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES// TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH FINALIZES AT 62.4217 TONNES OR AVERAGING 3.285 TONNES PER DAY IN JUNE.
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 749,300 OZ OR 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000TONNES//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 40.818TONNES PLUS 0.00622 TONNES EXHANGE FOR RISK// NEW TOTAL 40.824 TONNES . TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING SO FAR: 17.5802 TONNES OR 0.8790 TONNES ON EACH TRADING DAY LEAVING COMEX FOR EASTERN SHORES.
AUGUST INITIAL; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STANDS: 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 5TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 5 CONTRACTS FOR 500 OZ OR 0.0155 TONNES TO OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 220 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR 0.6220 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 1.7045 TONNES TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 1.552 TONNES TO OUR FIRST: 0.0715 NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 3.9688 TONNES AND THEN ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 39 CONTRACTS OR 3900 OZ (0.1213 TONNES)//STANDING, IN TOTAL, THUS ADVANCES HUGELY TO 67.2441 TONNES.
SEPT/2026. INITIAL STANDING : 8.756 TONNES//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 200 OZ OR .00622 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THIS TO OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2,000 CONTRACTS/200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES: /NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 15.471 TONNES
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE 4 YEARS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING SEPT CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE ( IT ROSE BY $141.55)
WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION FRIDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL FRIDAY EVENING /SATURDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE AT COMEX OF $63.50
WE HAD 1371 CONTRACTS REMOVED // PRELIMINARY NUMBERS TO FINAL COMEX NUMBERS.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 651 CONTRACTS OR 65,100 OZ 2.02 TONNES)
SEPT DELIVERY MONTH
SEPT 8
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold 1 ENTRIES i) Into HSBC 64.302 oz (2 kilobars) xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 0 CONTRACTS 0 OZ 0.000 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 419 Contracts 41,900 OZ 1.304 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 2555 notices 255,500 OZ 7.947 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
ENTRIES: 1
i) Into HSBC 64.302 oz
(2 kilobars)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawal
0 ENTRIES
adjustments: 0//
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT OI STANDS AT 419 CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 42 CONTRACTS.
FRIDAY WE HAD NORMAL STANDING AT 297,200 OZ //TODAY: 297,400 OZ STAND. THUS A GAIN OF 200 OZ(0.00622 TONNES) OR 2 CONTRACTS UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP.
OCT LOST 1448 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 45,600
NOVEMBER GAINED 86 CONTRACTS RISING TO 743
.
We had 0 contracts filed for today representing 0 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPT /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2555) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (419 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 297,400 OZ OR (9.2503Tonnes of gold) to which we add our two exchange for risk, 2000 contracts or 200,000 oz (6.2208 tonnes)///// thus new standing thus advances to 15.471 tonnes
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPT. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2555) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(419) contracts minus the number of notices served upon today 0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 297,400 OZ OR (9.2503 Tonnes of gold) to which we add our two exchange for risk of 6.2208 tonnes/new standing advances to 15.471 tonnes
new total of gold standing in SEPT becomes 15.471TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT 12.471 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW VERY STRONG FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT
confirmed volume FRIDAY confirmed 219,572/ fair//
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,666,759.925 oz 51.843 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,666,759.925 tonnes oz 51.843 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 27,377,617.005 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 15,110,183.008 tonnes (469.99 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 12,267,498.296 oz. Lots of eligible gold leaving the comex
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,443,424 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
418.146 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
SEPT DELIVERY MONTH
SEPT 8
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries i) Out of CNT 59,672.210 oz ii) Out of HSBC 600,056.052 oz total withdrawal: 659.728.262 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | ENTRIES: 1 i) Into CNT 29,656.500 oz total deposit: 29,656.500 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 7 CONTRACT(S) ( 35,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 439 Contracts (2.195 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5039 contracts 25.195 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
ENTRY:0
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
1 ENTRIES:
i) Into CNT 29,656.500 oz
total deposit: 29,656.500 oz
ENTRIES: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals:
2 entries
i) Out of CNT 59,672.210 oz
ii) Out of HSBC 600,056.052 oz
total withdrawal: 659.728.262 oz
adjustments : 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 99.386 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 338.698 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR SEPT
FRONT MONTH: SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS: 402 FOR A LOSS OF 86 CONTRACTS.
FRIDAY WE HAD 27.355 MILLION OZ STAND: TODAY 27.170 MILLION OZ FOR A LOSS OF 0.185 MILLION OZ (185,000 OZ OR A 37 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON WHERE THEY WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND.
OCT GAINED 54 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 2804
NOVEMBER GAINED 6 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 328
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 49 or 0.245 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume FRIDAY; 45,921// POOR/
AND NOW AUGUST. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5039 X5,000 oz = 25.195 MILLION oz.
Then we take the difference between the front month of September and the number of notices filed for today x 5000 to give us our standing
Thus the standings for silver for the Sept 2026 contract month: (5039 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPT (402) minus number of notices served upon today ( 7 x 5000 oz) equals silver standing for the SEPT .contract month equating to 27.170 MILLION OZ. ( a very strong delivery month)
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 99.386 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 137.898/338.068million: 40.82%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD/
SEPT 8//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $34.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.42 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.06 TONNES
SEPT 4//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $63.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.48 TONNES
SEPT 3//2026/WITH GOLD UP $141.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 9.98 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.62 TONNES
SEPT 2//2026/WITH GOLD UP $19.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.64 TONNES
SEPT 1//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $80.25 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.36 TONNES
AUGUST 31//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $48.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.25 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.36 TONNES
AUGUST 28//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $119.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.64 TONNES
AUGUST 27//2026/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.950 TONNES
AUGUST 26//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1/138 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.950 TONNES
AUGUST 25//2026/WITH GOLD FLAT /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.279 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.489 TONNES
AUGUST 24//2026/WITH GOLD UP $15.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 12.50 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.21 TONNES
AUGUST 21//2026/WITH GOLD UP $103.98 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.65 TONNES
AUGUST 20//2026/WITH GOLD UP $29.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 9.41 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.65 TONNES
AUGUST 19//2026/WITH GOLD UP $123.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.42 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.24 TONNES
AUGUST 18//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $51.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 7.13 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1030.66 TONNES
AUGUST 17//2026/WITH GOLD UP $36.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD FORM THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.53 TONNES
AUGUST 14//2026/WITH GOLD UP $16.55 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.80 TONNES
AUGUST 13//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $43.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3,139 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025,80TONNES
AUGUST 12//2026/WITH GOLD UP $24.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.562 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022.672TONNES
AUGUST 11//2026/WITH GOLD UP $20.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.52 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1020.06TONNES
AUGUST 10//2026/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.82 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017. 540TONNES
/AUGUST 7//2026/WITH GOLD UP $98.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.720TONNES
AUGUST 6//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.851 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.143TONNES
AUGUST 5//2026/WITH GOLD UP $59.75 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.146 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.874TONNES
AUGUST 3//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.80 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WIITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1007.02TONNES
JULY 31//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.40 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 30//2026/WITH GOLD UP $63.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 29//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 28//2026/WITH GOLD UP 21.50 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 27.2026/WITH GOLD UP 21.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JLY 24/2026/WITH GOLD UP 6.30 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 98.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1007.87TONNES
JULY 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP $73.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1053.48 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
SEPT 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.31 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ A DEPOSIT OF 0.632 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.171 MILLION OZ
SEPT 4 WITH SILVER UP $2.20 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.539 MILLION OZ
SEPT 3 WITH SILVER UP $2.20 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.293 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.539 MILLION OZ
SEPT2 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.832 MILLION OZ
SEPT1 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.43 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.832 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.97 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 0.452 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.832 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.44 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.543,000 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.380 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 27 WITH SILVER UP $1.33 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.923 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.60 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.174 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.923 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.43 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.9786 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.097 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.633 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.754 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 21 WITH SILVER UP $1.48 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.121 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 20 WITH SILVER UP $2.92 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.169 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.121 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 19 WITH SILVER UP $1.72 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.259 MILLION OZ OZ INTO THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.02 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 768,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.296 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 17 WITH SILVER UP $1.11 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 768,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.296 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.19 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 720,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.064 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.92 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.341 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.75 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A DEPOSIT OF 3.434 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.341 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A DEPOSIT OF 1.085 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.907 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 10 WITH SILVER UP $1.83 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV; / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.822 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 7 WITH SILVER UP $2.00 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.355 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.822 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.75 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.467 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 5 WITH SILVER UP $2.20: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV :// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.673 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV :A DEPOSIT OF 2.893 MILLION OZ FROIM THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.673 MILLION OZ
JULY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.90: :NOCHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.97: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 723,000 OZ INTO THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.34: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.057 MILLION OZ
JULY 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.27: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.633 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.057 MILLION OZ
JULY 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.27: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.722 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.690 MILLION OZ
JULY 24 WITH SILVER UP $1.45: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.413 MILLION OZ
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN 2.18: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 0.723MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.413 MILLION OZ
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.45: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.217 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.690 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 492.539 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF//JOHN RUBINO
JOHN RUBINO..
Tech Insiders On The Coming U.S. Debt Crisis
| Sept 6 |  |
The massively popular “All-In” podcast usually features tech insiders arguing about where AI is headed and who’s leading the way. But in a recent show, they spent some time analyzing the U.S. financial system. And their conclusions are apocalyptic.
Here’s the video, followed by a partial transcript.
Partial Transcript
Last week, the 30-year Treasury hit a 19-year high, 5.3%. In response, [Treasury Secretary] Besson doubled the Treasury Department’s long-dated bond buybacks from 2 billion to 4 billion. CNBC reported that Besson is considering ramping up bond buying and Fox Business that said he wants to put the fear of God into traders that are shorting long-dated bonds.
So, a lot of interventionism going on here. Stan Duckenmiller, Besson’s former mentor, published an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal opposing his plan. His main point was Bessent is wrong for trying to manipulate prices rather than fixing the core reason yields are rising. America has a spending problem. We’ve talked about it over and over here. $40 trillion. No more DOGE. No more cutting costs. And a war that’s quite expensive.
So we’re adding $2.5 trillion a year. We’ll add $10 trillion during the second Trump term.
It is very expensive to borrow money if you’re the US federal government. But cutting spending would hit unemployment and it would cause a recession because the federal government is such an integral part of the economy.
Today the federal government’s average cost of debt is 3.4%. That’s what we’re paying on our $40 trillion. For every 1% change in the interest rate, the US government has to pay 1.25% of GDP in excess interest each year. And we’re now looking at a 30-year at 5.2% and a short-term rate over four.
So the federal government has a problem because over the next 12 months they have to refinance $10 trillion of debt. Those bonds are now due. They have to pay the principal back to the bond holders and they have to sell more Treasuries to borrow more money to refinance.
So the borrowing cost is climbing. And when that borrowing cost climbs, the federal government’s burn goes up and the fiscal deficit goes up. So there is no action that Besson can take that will have a meaningful effect on the long end of the curve.
We have a fundamental spending problem with the federal government right now. We’ve taken this emergency spending and made it a permanent. If we don’t cut spending, there is going to be a spiral which we have to refinance trillions of debt at ever-higher rates. That’s a recipe for disaster.
The question is when, and who will force the United States to confront this issue? The bond market is starting to do this because that single price is the true reflection of the good faith and trust in the United States. And as that yield goes up, trust is going down.
This is happening at an incredibly awkward moment, when we are supposed to be in the middle of an enormous financial buildout to support AI. And if you go all the way back to the industrial revolution, the grand bargain, all of this stuff, the United States government was the balance sheet, right? They were the ones that were able to step in. And unfortunately because of it’s financial situation the US government is not able to do that.
That’s why thank god we have companies like Nvidia and Google and Microsoft and Meta and Amazon who take on that burden. I just wanted to tie it to this other thing because there’s so much chirping on the internet about the balance sheet of Nvidia and blah blah blah. I think people completely miss that these guys are putting the entire US economy on their back. The US government is not in a position to do it because Congress cannot get their act together on spending.
The next big thing is going to happen around 2030 to 2032, when Social Security doesn’t have the money to pay anymore. That’s also when a lot of the states are going to become bankrupt. We’re not going to be able to pay their obligations. And when the states can’t pay their obligations, you’re going to have both the Social Security bailout and restructuring as well as the state bailouts and restructuring. And that might be the time that all of this stuff breaks.
In Other Words, Death Spiral
To summarize, the U.S. is going broke. Spending is politically impossible to cut, and the bond markets are delivering a vote of no confidence via higher long-term interest rates. The result is a financial death spiral.
Oh, and the AI companies will have to carry the economy on their backs as Social Security goes broke.
When Tech bros start sounding like gold bugs, you know the end is near.
END
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ//ALASDAIR MACLEOD
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
Since 2022, increasing amounts of US government debt have been funded by the yen carry trade. That is now ending, leading to a growing funding crisis.
The US government already faces a funding crisis which has been concealed by US hedge funds and others round-tripping from the yen to the dollar in a carry-trade. It has concealed the seriousness of the US debt problem which is now being unmasked. Additionally, the current administration seems to go out of its way to upset its genuine creditors.
This is not the way to win friends and influence people, serving only to strike fear into the dwindling number of sycophantic governments, most of which have debt problems of their own. And Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, deliberately set off a bear squeeze in the yen, against the interests of the carry traders upon which he depends, with as yet unknown consequences.
As the chart below of the yen/US$ rate shows, over the last month the yen has rallied by nearly 5% wiping out carry trade profits for hedge funds and others borrowing yen. The annual return on the round trip is about 2%, so to lose 5% in one month is bad news.
There are two significant considerations. The first is that the carry-traders don’t fully hedge their positions, because that more of less eliminates the yield differential. Perhaps they trade the yen from time to time against a short position, otherwise they run a long-dollar/short-yen position. The second consideration is that hedge funds use leverage, multiplying the initial margin by as much or more than 10 times.
The sharp rally in the yen is easily explained as a bear squeeze on these carry traders. This is not the first time a sharp rally in the yen has occurred by any means. But this time is different, because Japan’s finance ministry is acutely aware of a mounting economic and funding crisis that leads to Japan’s Keynesians horror-show — higher interest rates. To date, Japan’s funding position has been made worse by pension funds and insurance companies directing their investments abroad to obtain higher yields. This led to a plea by Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on 10 July for them to invest more in Japan, which requires foreign investment to cease, and even be reversed.
Japanese institutions have been the most important source of capital exports within the G7 for decades. Katayama’s plea warns us that that is coming to an end, and Japan’s capital flows could even reverse, increasing bond yields globally.
The background to the problem was that the US’s oil price suppression scheme was coming to an end with strategic reserve stocks falling to dangerously low levels. Having depended on the Persian Gulf for over 90% of her oil and LNG requirements, Japan’s own energy shortfall has been made up by US shipments of oil estimated to total over 110 million barrels between March and July alone. The problem now is that the oil price is rising because US oil exports are slowing and will soon cease altogether.
Not only are oil prices heading higher, probably much higher, but shortages of distillates are apparent with record premiums of $75 above crude oil values:
Virtually all logistics depend on these derivatives whether by land, sea, or air. Consequently, with Japan also scrambling to replace Middle Eastern oil and the US taps turned off, the government is faced with a severe energy crisis, a slump in business activity, and at the same time rising price inflation. Furthermore, with the price of rice having risen 33% so far this year along with other wholesale food inputs consumer prices are likely to rise even more steeply forcing interest rates higher.
The last time Japan faced a similar energy crisis was when OPEC raised its reference prices in 1973-74. Japan’s wholesale prices rose over 30% in 1974, and consumer prices by 25%. Bond yields were capped at 8%. All this occurred when government debt to GDP was only 20%. Today on the broader measure it’s 240%. Japan’s government simply cannot afford interest rates to go much higher.
Today the Bank of Japan’s short-term policy rate is 1%, expected to increase to 1.25% at the BOJ’s monetary policy meeting in two weeks. But it won’t stop there, because of the oil crisis’ effect on wholesale and consumer prices. And investors are only just waking up to the facts.
For sure, Japanese institutions will continue to be pressured to do their patriotic duty. We can expect them to reduce their holdings of US treasuries and certainly not add to them. The carry traders will also come under pressure to close their positions because rising Japanese interest rates will whittle down the interest rate differential with US treasuries, unless their yields rise to match.
While foreign creditors are on hold, unless the Fed’s fund rate rises, a weaker dollar will not help with US Treasury funding. The dollar faces similar inflationary pressures to Japan. Furthermore, the Trump administration has shown a cavalier disregard for foreign property rights. Who outside the US will buy their debt while this attitude prevails?
While the Japanese government is demonstrably facing a debt crisis, the US is clearly heading there as well. Intervention in the foreign exchange to support the yen by Scott Bessent has probably set off a chain of events thiat is spinning out of control. It seemed an odd thing to do at the time.
end
3.CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE//KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT/287
END
5. COMMODITY REPORT: GLOBAL/FOOD
Alarm Bells Ring As Global Food Prices Hit 2022 Highs, Perfect Storm Stokes New Inflation Shock
Saturday, Sep 05, 2026 – 08:45 AM
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s global food-commodity index climbed in August to its highest level since 2022, with the index now gaining momentum to the upside. The upside reinforces warnings from several major Wall Street desks, which we have covered extensively, that global food shortages could materialize next year.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 133.3 in August, up 1.9% from July, with every major category advancing. Sugar prices surged 11.9%, while wheat gained 2.6% and now stands 15% above year-ago levels.
The surge in global food prices comes as a perfect storm of factors emerges, from El Niño and higher fertilizer and diesel prices to disruptions in the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, all of which could push the global food system toward another crisis.
Earlier this week, the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index (BCOMAGSP) posted its largest monthly gain since the chaotic days of the Arab Spring riots and is nearing a breakout above its 2023 highs, signaling a broad-based acceleration in agricultural commodity prices.
Latest coverage:
- Barclays Warns Next Commodity Shock Is Taking Shape: What You Need To Know
- Agricultural Commodity Prices Break Out As JPMorgan’s Food Crisis Warning Gets Louder
With diesel at record highs to end the week, agricultural markets tightening, and global food prices accelerating, another inflationary impulse is quickly moving through global supply chains just as central banks decide whether interest rates are restrictive enough.
end
COMMODITY: DIESEL…
Diesel Stays Hot as Goldman Doubles Down
by VBL
Sunday, Sep 06, 2026 – 8:29
Dark Oil Transit Rises as Goldman Rolls Its Diesel Hedge
Hidden Persian Gulf Flows Are Keeping More Oil Moving Than Markets Can See, Leaving Diesel as the Cleaner Geopolitical Trade
Authored by GoldFix
Brent crude has climbed toward $95 a barrel as markets increasingly price a prolonged Middle East standoff, but Goldman Sachs says the oil market is also becoming better at adapting to the conflict, limiting how far crude prices may ultimately need to rise.
The bank’s latest Oil Tracker argues that a growing volume of Persian Gulf oil is moving outside normal vessel-tracking systems. At least six tanker strikes were confirmed over the previous ten days, but the expansion of dark transits means visible shipping data increasingly understate how much oil is actually getting through.
The Dark Transit
Visible Persian Gulf exports recently stood around 10 million barrels per day on a seven-day moving average. Goldman’s estimate after incorporating dark crossings is closer to 15–16mb/d, or roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels.
“Accounting for dark crossings, we estimate recent total Persian Gulf oil exports at roughly 15-16mb/d or 2/3 of pre-war levels, while recent visible exports stand at only 10mb/d (7DMA). We estimate a net hit to Persian Gulf flows of 7.9mb/d now. The 5mb/d upward revision to the Gulf flows over the last two weeks likely results from a ramp up in oil tankers crossing the Strait near the coast of Oman with their AIS off.”
That distinction changes the interpretation of the disruption. The barrels have not necessarily disappeared. Increasingly, the ability to see them has.
Hormuz traffic has improved, while Red Sea exports fell by roughly 4.5mb/d in August versus July as Saudi Arabia redirected flows away from Yanbu and back toward eastern ports in response to the Houthi threat.
Visible Inventories May Also Be Wrong
Dark shipping also complicates the inventory picture.
If more oil is moving than vessel trackers can observe, oil-on-water and global inventory estimates are likely being understated as well. Goldman says expected revisions place global visible stocks roughly 39 million barrels above the raw same-day reading, although inventories are still drawing.
The more important signal for crude pricing, however, is that OECD commercial inventories have not tightened nearly as dramatically as the headline disruption would imply.
“Adjusting for expected upward revisions, we estimate global visible stocks at 39mb above the same-day raw reading, implying a 2.1mb/d pace of inventory draws over the last 30 days. OECD commercial stocks — the core predictive indicator for Brent timespreads — remain in line with their historical averages, with our OECD commercial stocks counter down only 19mb since March 1st.”
Large OECD strategic reserve draws averaging more than 1mb/d over the past six months, together with barrels held on water, have helped prevent a larger draw in commercial stocks.
China has simultaneously acted as a demand-side pressure valve.
China Backs Away on Price Rise
Chinese crude demand remains highly sensitive to price.
After a short-lived pickup in early August, imports fell back to roughly 3mb/d below seasonal norms over the latest two weeks. That response leaves more barrels available elsewhere when geopolitical disruption pushes prices sharply higher.
This is central to Goldman’s crude view.
The conflict creates scarcity. Higher prices encourage behavioral and logistical adaptation. That adaptation then limits the amount of scarcity that must ultimately be reflected in Brent.
Brent at $95 Contains About $15 of Risk Premium
Goldman’s fundamental estimate for spot Brent remains around $80 per barrel, compared with a market price near $95.
“We estimate the fair value of Brent spot prices at around $80/bbl based on our OECD commercial stocks counter, current OECD demand estimates, estimates of the long-term Brent anchor, and the historical relationship between stocks and spot prices.”
That leaves approximately $15/bbl of geopolitical and security premium embedded in spot crude.
Continues here
5. COMMODITY GOLD
China is the big buyer and they bought far more “official” gold
Central Banks Bought 23 Tonnes Of Gold In July
Monday, Sep 07, 2026 – 09:15 AM
Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,
Central banks worldwide purchased a net 23 tonnes of gold in July, in line with the overall yearly trend, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).
The largest buyer last month was China, which bought 20 tonnes, according to a Sept. 3 WGC report.
“Notably, activity from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has picked up pace in recent months, with double-digit monthly purchases of gold since May 2026,” the report said. Poland purchased eight tonnes and was the second-largest buyer.
Russia was the top net seller, with six tonnes sold. This was followed by Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Jordan, all of which sold a tonne each.
Year-to-date, global central banks reported purchasing 130 tonnes of gold, down from roughly 160 tonnes during the same period in 2025. Poland has added 90 tonnes this year, with China buying 60 tonnes. Turkey has sold 85 tonnes, while Russia’s sales total 50 tonnes.
Central banks account for roughly 20 percent of all historically mined gold, according to the WGC. Bullion serves as a vital bank reserve asset, valued for its liquidity, safety, and potential returns. In times of uncertainty, gold demand tends to rise.
According to a June 16 WGC report, a survey of central banks found that 89 percent of respondents forecast global central bank gold reserves to rise over the year.
As for funding, half of the respondents said they would procure the gold locally by using domestic currencies. Thirty-eight percent said they would sell other reserve assets to purchase gold.
“The majority of respondents (74 percent) see moderate or significantly lower US dollar holdings within global reserves over the next five years,” the report said.
“Respondents also believe that the share of other currencies, such as the euro and renminbi, will remain unchanged over the same period, while gold holdings will increase.”
Goldman Sachs predicts central bank buying will support the rise in gold prices, according to an Aug. 28 report. Such purchases are being driven by a need to diversify their reserves.
In 2022, the G7 nations froze Russia’s assets held in Europe due to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Since then, the central banks have been buying gold at an increased rate, according to Goldman Sachs.
Spot gold ended Friday at around $4,430 per oz., up from about $4,329 at the beginning of the year. Gold hit a peak of roughly $5,595 in late January.
Unable to Withdraw Gold
The Sept. 3 WGC report cites a conflict between Venezuela and the Bank of England over gold reserves.
The Venezuelan government has roughly $4 billion worth of gold stored with the bank and has sought to withdraw it. However, because the United Kingdom has refused to recognize Venezuela’s socialist government, the country has been unable to secure its gold reserves.
According to the June 16 WGC report, central banks are continuing to diversify the locations of their gold reserves. While the Bank of England remained the top choice, domestic storage was a close second, followed by the Bank for International Settlements in third place.
This week, the Netherlands’ central bank announced plans to shift roughly 86 tonnes of gold from the United States and Canada to London, citing geopolitical risk.
Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING Bank, highlighted the risk faced by certain nations that store gold abroad, citing Venezuela’s inability to retrieve its gold from the Bank of England, according to a Sept. 4 opinion on the company’s website.
“This case is exceptional – but it shows that the host country’s courts and political recognition decisions can affect access to reserves,” Manthey said.
“Gold held at the Bank of England remains the property of the foreign central bank, but it is physically located in the UK and is therefore subject to UK jurisdiction.”
end
COMMODITY IRON ORE:
Iron Ore Bottom In? Prices Reclaim $100 On “Improving Downstream Conditions”
Monday, Sep 07, 2026 – 03:30 PM
Iron ore futures in Singapore surged above $100 a ton, the highest level since mid-July, as tightening Chinese coking coal supplies lifted steelmaking costs and early signs of improving seasonal demand supported prices across the steel supply chain.
Rafael Barcellos, head of Latin American metals and mining, pulp and paper equity research at Bradesco BBI, wrote in a note last week that the coal squeeze is helping support steel prices, with rebar and hot-rolled coil reaching multi-month highs. Improving downstream conditions are, in turn, providing support for iron ore.
Barcellos pointed to China’s August manufacturing purchasing managers’ index as another encouraging economic signal.
Iron ore inventories also continued to decline, spot activity at Chinese steel-trading houses increased for a second consecutive week, and steelmaker margins improved. Blast furnace utilization, however, declined for a second week, tempering the recovery picture.
Barcellos flagged a recovery:
Even so, the recovery we flagged in VALE: Calling the Iron Ore Bottom? Attractive Asymmetry After 2Q26 Results is now playing out, with prices largely rebounding from the lows of the past couple of weeks — a trend we expect to persist amid firm cost support and improving downstream conditions.
Barcellos’ trade recommendation:
Against this backdrop, we continue to favor Vale and Ternium over CSN, Gerdau, and Usiminas.
China’s prolonged property downturn has weakened a major source of steel demand, weighing on iron ore prices despite periodic rebounds.
The latest recovery to $100 a ton raises the question of whether improving seasonal conditions can translate into a sustained demand growth story, keeping prices in triple-digit territory.
In the metals complex on Monday, London copper futures reached a new high of $14,530 a ton. For further context, we direct readers to our note, “The Copper Chart Causing Alarm.”
Professional subscribers can read much more about the latest metals space here on our new Marketdesk.ai portal.
END
COMMODITY COPPER
Copper Hits All-Time-High As Physical Economy Reprices Scarcity
Tuesday, Sep 08, 2026 – 08:20 AM
Copper futures in London reached a record high on Tuesday as expectations of US tariffs drew record volumes from the seaborne market into US warehouses, tightening availability elsewhere despite subdued demand. As we highlighted on Monday, deteriorating conditions across global mining operations are adding to supply woes.
Benchmark three-month futures on the LME gained nearly 1% to reach $14,533 a ton, exceeding January’s peak before trimming some of those gains.
The industrial metal, critical for AI and power grid buildouts, has climbed 17% this year and 47% over the past 12 months, according to Bloomberg data.
Veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie reiterated his warning on X that the “physical economy is repricing scarcity in the real world.”
Currie, the former Global Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs and now co-chair of Abaxx Markets, expanded on that idea:
Copper’s record-breaking run above $14,500/ton should get everyone’s attention. It is the latest sign that the physical economy is repricing scarcity in the real world.
Yes, part of yesterday’s move reflects tariff front-running and metal being pulled into US warehouses. But that doesn’t paint the whole picture.
Metal stranded in one part of the world is unavailable to everyone outside it. Scarcity is not just about how many tonnes exist, it is about having the tonnes in the right place at the right time.
You cannot build data centres, expand grids, electrify industry or duplicate supply chains without copper. Yet supply cannot respond quickly enough because of the same constraints I have highlighted in the thread below.
This is the latest rotation of the commodity cycle. Last month it was grain. Last week it was diesel. Today it is copper.
Weather, war and policymaking are the three horsemen that have combined against underinvestment (the revenge of the old economy) to create a scarcity problem that shows no signs of being solved. The bears will say the metal exists. Fine. But if it is locked in a warehouse, it is just a pile of metal.
Just two weeks ago I said the next phase of this cycle would bring “higher highs across more markets”. Copper is now doing exactly that.
Adam Gillard, managing director in commodity sales at Goldman, wrote in a note overnight:
LME copper makes a new all-time-high on 80% YTD adv. Despite the catchy headline we don’t think there is anything new today; vol is offered as flat price moves higher and we think option positioning is 3/10 max. Think the franchise has 4/10 futures length to play a grind higher as LME continues to tighten on strong US imports. We have modest length mainly via LME spreads. As stated previously, the damage has been done; the threat of a US tariff was enough to shift all surplus metal to the US. Current dynamic of high imports, financed be Wall Street, without an inflationary tariff, is optimal from the administrations perspective; if imports drop off think tariff rhetoric changes given continued Critical Mineral security concerns.
Gillard continued:
Side-note: Never in my career did I think we’d see both (global) inventory and price on the highs together. No shortage of copper, just all in the wrong place (CMX). Regional deficit trading gtc.
Mine supply: Running negative y/y but this is not new; with global inventory up YTD hard to argue against being in a (global) cathode surplus. TCs a red herring. Frankly none of this matters; think we’ll be trading regional deficits for the foreseeable.
US Imports: Remain firm; August should be ~200k MT whilst MTD September is already tracking at 77k MT basis ship-tracking data. We think the US has over-imported 730k MT YTD.
LME Spreads: Which is why LME term structure keeps flaring; smelters can’t run concentrate related shorts to prompt anymore to compensate for the lower headline TC given there is so little available metal outside of China / US.
Chinese Positioning: Not stretched despite low domestic inventory; think they struggle adding length on the ATH with relatively tepid end-demand
Scrap: Remains tight with secondary rod production still contracting by 50% y/y which is supporting cathode / apparent demand (& continued outperformance vs end demand)
Chinese Inventory: Continues to draw, both upstream (-41% y/y) and downstream (-8% y/y), in part due to scrap-related tightness
Michael Cuoco, head of metals at StoneX Financial, said the combination of strong demand growth and supply challenges “should bring about a tighter future market balance supporting higher prices.”
end
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.85 PTS OR 0.20%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 95.94 PTS OR 0.38%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 1121.04 PTS OR 1.69%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.98%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7106
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7007 Oil UP TO 93.90 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 98.62 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7106 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7097 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 6.7106
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.7097
1.HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 95.94 PTS OR 0.38%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 1121.84 PTS OR 1.69%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 93.90
BRENT; 98.62
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN 16 BASIS PTS TO 98.99// EURO FALLS TO 1.1611 DOWN 17 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +2.891 DOWN 2 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 154.36… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.971 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP (6.7106) AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.7097
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA. CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. GOVERMENT ASKED JAPAN PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE FUNDS TO BUY MORE JAPANESE BONDS AND REPATRIATE ALL FOREIGN BONDS.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP for Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EU German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +3.3778/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP AT 4.203/ SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.816%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 4.0620%
3j Gold at $4396.40/Silver at: 65.97 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN AND 34/ 100 roubles/86.31
3m oil (WTI) into the 93 dollar handle for WTI and 95 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 154.36 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.894% DOWN 2 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS TO BE REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.971 DOWN 1 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.8116 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9424
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.800 UP 2 BASIS PTS…DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 5.00%
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.263 UP 2 BASIS PTS/REFUSES TO GO DOWN WITH BESSENT’S QE TWIST
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.3750 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 48.46 UP 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.1828 UP 1 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.8096 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.814 UP 4 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.446 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Fall As Inflation Fears Mount With Oil Set To Top $100
Tuesday, Sep 08, 2026 – 08:40 AM
US futures fell as Brent crude approached $100 a barrel, chasing Shanghai crude which is now trading above $102, reinforcing expectations that central banks will have to raise interest rates to contain inflation while a key CPI print looms on Friday. As of 8:15am, S&P 500 futures were 0.3% lower while Nasdaq futures were fractionally negative after reversing an earlier rise. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower:
Stocks in Europe and Asia were also weaker. Brent traded around $99 after Saudi Arabia said operations at facilities in the kingdom’s south were halted by attacks. As discussed here, strong Chinese purchases added to tightness in oil markets. The dollar gained as the yen erased gains of as much as 1% deriving support from expectations of more restrictive Bank of Japan policy, which had pushed the USDJPY as low as 152, levels last seen in February. Treasuries slipped ahead of a $58 billion auction of three-year notes. Today’s US economic data slate includes August NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11 a.m.) and July consumer credit (3 p.m.). Fed speaker slate is blank during Sept. 5-17 external communications blackout period around the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Nvidia +0.3%, Tesla +0.2%, Alphabet -0.7%, Apple -0.4%, Amazon -0.9%, Microsoft -0.8%, Meta Platforms -0.5%
- Best Buy (BBY) slips 2% after DA Davidson cut the recommendation on the consumer electronics retailer to neutral, citing the stock’s valuation following a 35% year-to-date gain.
- Bloom Energy (BE) rises 6% and Everpure (P) gains 2% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the companies will join the S&P 500 Index.
- Boston Scientific (BSX) slips 2% after the company said that the cyber attack that recently affected operations is likely to have a material impact on third quarter and fiscal 2026 results.
- Herbalife (HLF) rises 7% after the maker of dietary supplements announced a $250 million share buyback.
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) falls 10% and Amgen (AMGN) slumps 5% after Novartis AG said its heart medication, pelacarsen, failed in a final-stage study.
- Pharvaris (PHVS) soars 25% after a Phase 3 trial of its deucrictibant extended-release tablet for the prevention of hereditary angioedema attacks met its primary and secondary endpoints.
- Rigetti Computing (RGTI) rises 5% after the quantum computing firm signed a $100 million pact with the US Department of Commerce to accelerate superconducting quantum computing R&D.
- Roivant (ROIV) gains 20% after the drugmaker said a mid-stage study of its inhaled drug, mosliciguat, met its primary endpoint in the treatment for a lung disease.
- Sigma Lithium (SGML) drops 16% after a Brazilian court ordered the suspension of all environmental permits for an operating subsidiary of the company and the complete halt of mining activities for the firm’s Grota do Cirilo lithium project.
- Sweetgreen (SG) is up 5% after KeyBanc raised its recommendation on the salad restaurant chain to overweight, calling it a compelling turnaround opportunity.
In other corporate news, Brookfield landed a $1 billion commitment from the UK’s Nuclear Liabilities Fund to invest across several strategies, as the New York-based firm builds a new division that packages and sells multi-asset portfolios. Volkswagen is considering offloading motorcycle manufacturer Ducati as part of a sweeping overhaul of its portfolio. Novartis shares plunged after its del-desiran treatment for a muscle-wasting disease failed to meet the primary endpoint in a phase 3 trial; it’s the third drug setback in a week for the Swiss drugmaker.
Fear of upheaval in the Middle East is driving markets in the early part of a week that builds toward Friday’s US inflation print, data that may be decisive in whether the Federal Reserve raises rates or holds them steady this month. September hikes by the European Central Bank and BOJ are largely priced in.
“We are likely to be in some sort of period of digestion, because we are going through a pretty meaningful adjustment in terms of central bank policy around the world,” Anastasia Amoroso at Partners Group told Bloomberg TV. “So we might give a little bit of those gains back or at least some consolidation here.”
Stock futures are lower as traders return to their desks after the Labor Day holiday, with markets facing multiple tests including PPI and CPI prints, Oracle earnings and a conference season that includes tech events on both coasts. On top of that, a flare-up in Middle East hostilities and an escalating trade war between the US and Canada are adding risk.
As BBG notes, stocks have been trading sideways for a month, caught between strong earnings and mounting macro risks. Events like next week’s Fed decision carry binary outcomes that argue for some protection, according to today’s Taking Stock column. Fed officials have made it clear that Friday’s inflation print will be key for rates. While the bond market sees a 60% chance of a hike next week, such a move isn’t fully priced in until December. In fact, Fed funds futures signal the most uncertainty in years.
The tech trade is also in focus, with traders looking to Oracle earnings and conference comments for clues on current dynamics within the sector. Of note, software implied volatility has firmed up recently versus other areas of the tech complex. The implied volatility ratio of software vs semiconductors has been unstable this year as option volumes and open interest have exploded in both groups.
In AI, there’s been a rapid change in narrative around AGI, or Artificial General Intelligence. OpenAI’s rollout of GPT-6 on Thursday prompted Nvidia’s Jensen Huang to proclaim that “AGI has arrived,” sparking a renewed melt-up in Asian tech stocks and especially SoftBank which is a big backer of OpenAi. Still, the definition of AGI is nebulous, and not everyone is convinced. JonesTrading chief strategist Mike O’Rourke noted that the whole AGI conversation “was started by self-interested promotional individuals,” which damages credibility.
Elsewhere, ByteDance is readying an AI model geared for real-time spatial video generation, taking on Meta and Alphabet. An experimental lung disease drug developed using AI showed promise in reversing biological signs of aging. Anthropic is said to have walked away from $6 billion Decart purchase.
Global stocks may now be poised for a period of consolidation given the outlook for tightening, said Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at Partners Group. “We are likely to be in some sort of period of digestion, because we are going through a pretty meaningful adjustment in terms of central bank policy around the world,” Anastasia Amoroso at Partners Group told Bloomberg TV. “So we might give a little bit of those gains back or at least some consolidation here.”
Other assets have been active, with Yen strength triggering stop-loss orders, volatility gauges ticking up and copper hitting all-time highs. Oil prices are rising and Brent is grinding closer to $100/bbl after attacks halted several facilities in Saudi Arabia. That sent global bonds, European stocks, US futures and gold lower. German 10-year yields hit the highest since 2011, a UK 30-year sale is set for the highest borrowing costs since at least 1998, and Amazon has mandated banks for a four-part sterling-denominated sale.
Copper’s rally added to the inflationary pressure from commodities. The metal hit a record for a second straight session, with constrained near-term supplies and expectations of US tariffs on imports of refined metal buoying prices.
In geopolitics, Canada imposed tariffs of 15% to 50% on hundreds of products from the US, risking a wider trade war. Trump threatened to bar Bombardier Jets, while the manufacturer noted it creates tens of thousands of US jobs.
The Stoxx 600 is falling by 0.4%, with health care the underperformer owing to a big drop for Swiss pharma group Novartis. Banks, insurance and tech stocks are weaker too.
Asian stocks fell, reversing earlier gains, as inflationary concerns reemerged after oil prices neared the $100 a barrel level. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index retreated 0.9% after climbing as much as 0.6% earlier in the session. Japan’s Topix led declines as a sharp rally in the yen put downward pressure on exporters. South Korea’s Kospi closed lower, erasing gains of as much as 2.5% led by the tech sector. Stocks also fell in Hong Kong, Singapore, India and Australia.
“The catalyst for the turnaround is the news coming out of the Middle East that the Houthis have targeted more Saudi oil infrastructure,” said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG Australia. “It’s all about oil being back in the driver’s seat.” There’s also fear of a “potential rate hike in America that’s kind of really pushing these Asian stocks,” said Sycamore.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed while the yen has continued its rally to put its 2026 high in sight. USDJPY last traded around 154, erasing earlier gains having hit a session low of 152.89.
In rates, Treasuries hold small losses led by long-end tenors as US trading resumes after Monday’s holiday, pressured by Brent crude oil approaching $100 a barrel after Saudi Arabia said operations at several energy facilities were halted by fresh attacks. Supply considerations also are in play, including the 3-year note auction and anticipated seasonal rebound in corporate new-issue activity. Also, details of Thursday’s expanded Treasury buyback in the 10- to 20-year bucket are slated to be announced Wednesday, US long-end yields are about 2bp higher on the day with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads wider by around half a basis point. 10-year, higher by 1.6bp near 4.8%, lags bunds and gilts in the sector by 3bp and 2bp. Treasury issuance resumes with $58 billion 3-year new-issue auction at 1 p.m. New York time; $39 billion 10-year note and $22 billion 30-year bond reopenings follow on Wednesday and Thursday. WI 3-year yield near 4.47% is ~18bp cheaper than last month’s sale, which stopped through by half a basis point, and exceeds 3-year auction results since June 2024. IG dollar issuance slate already includes a handful of offerings; dealers expect a cumulative $70 billion this week and $215 billion this month, including at least one jumbo and capital-raising for AI data infrastructure.
Stretched positioning in bonds means that a short-term pullback in yields may be on the cards soon, noted Mohit Kumar at Jefferies International. A trigger could come from Friday’s inflation data or next week’s Fed decision, he said.
“If we do get a benign CPI print, which is our view, we could see a round of position covering, which would lead to a rates rally,” Kumar said. “Any pullback in rates is likely to support risky assets.”
In commodities, oil prices are rising and Brent is grinding closer to $100/bbl after attacks halted several facilities in Saudi Arabia. That sent global bonds, European stocks, US futures and gold lower. German 10-year yields hit the highest since 2011, a UK 30-year sale is set for the highest borrowing costs since at least 1998, and Amazon has mandated banks for a four-part sterling-denominated sale. WTI crude oil futures trade are up 2.5%, near session highs. Gold erased its rise too as oil prices rallied, falling below $4,400/oz.
Today’s US economic data slate includes August NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11 a.m.) and July consumer credit (3 p.m.). Fed speaker slate is blank during Sept. 5-17 external communications blackout period around the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- The war in Iran has now cost U.S. consumers $100 billion in higher energy prices, and the bill is rising another $1 million about every two minutes, per a real-time estimate from Brown University as of Monday morning. Inflation shows up across the entire economy, and the recent surge in diesel prices threatens to have a dramatic impact on freight and travel in the weeks and months to come. Axios
- Yemen’s Tehran-backed Houthis attacked four cities in the south of U.S. ally Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, wounding more than 70 people and setting oil installations ablaze in what appeared to be a major expansion of the six-month-old Middle East war. They used drones and missiles to strike a Saudi airbase in the southern city of Khamis Mushait, and targets belonging to Saudi Arabia’s state oil company in nearby Abha, Najran on the Yemeni border and Jazan, a major Red Sea port city that houses a large refinery and power plant. Reuters
- In offices across the military and in the intelligence community, there have been recent quiet discussions about cutting the number of people and facilities typically stationed in the Middle East if the Trump administration succeeds in ending the Iran conflict. CNN
- New Canadian tariffs targeting roughly $20 billion in U.S. imports officially snapped into place on Tuesday, the latest escalation in an increasingly costly trade war that has ensnarled two longtime allies. NYT
- Japanese workers’ nominal wages rose at the fastest pace in nearly three decades on the back of strong corporate earnings and a tight labor market, in data likely to keep the Bank of Japan on course for further monetary tightening. BBG
- Two hawks on the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy board are calling more strongly for the central bank to accelerate its interest rate increases, pushing it to do more to rein in inflation before their terms end next July. Nikkei
- China’s export growth accelerated in August, swelling its trade surplus near $806 billion for the year. Its surplus with the US surged almost 44% to more than $29 billion. BBG
- China’s car exports stayed robust in August as BYD and other automakers shipped a record number of vehicles overseas, in sharp contrast to a sluggish domestic market where their sales fell for the 11th month in a row. Passenger vehicle exports jumped 77.5% from a year earlier to 894,000 units in August, easing from an increase of 88.2% a month earlier. Reuters.
- Goldman raised its oil price outlook by $5 a barrel, forecasting Brent at $85 by December and $80 in 2027 on expectations Middle East shipping disruptions will persist. BBG
Labor Day Recap
- On the geopolitical front, the US launched strikes against three Iranian crude oil tankers on Saturday in retaliation for the IRGC targeting US Navy warships with ballistic missiles. Iran’s navy also said it targeted three oil tankers that were travelling through unauthorised routes in the Strait of Hormuz and three additional US vessels in other areas. Since the weekend, the Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said a deal with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz will be registered soon, while the FT reported that Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities in Jizan were hit, which caused upside in energy benchmarks.
- European bourses were lower across the board, given the upside seen in energy benchmarks.
- In the FX space, G10s were firmer against the greenback, with the JPY the clear outperformer, while the EUR was steady despite the AfD victory in Saxony-Anholt.
- In the metals space, spot gold was choppy but was helped amid data from China that the PBoC boosted its gold reserves for a 22nd straight month.
A more detailed look at global markets coutesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed in the absence of a lead from Wall Street and as attention turned to several data releases from the region, including Japanese GDP and Chinese trade data. ASX 200 underperformed with sentiment not helped by a deterioration in the Westpac Consumer Sentiment and NAB Business Confidence surveys. Nikkei 225 was choppy amid recent currency strength and as the latest data, including upward GDP revisions and hot Labour Cash Earnings, solidified the case for a BoJ rate hike next week.
KOSPI outperformed on tech momentum and after South Korean GDP matched initial estimates. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the Hong Kong benchmark was dragged lower by weakness in the local tech and biopharma stocks, while the mainland was kept afloat as participants digested the ultimately mixed Chinese trade data, in which Exports and Imports accelerated and continued to show strong double-digit percentage growth, but missed estimates.
Top Asian News
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they will bolster efforts to secure funding for a consumption tax cut on food and will communicate fully with markets and the public to gain credibility in their fiscal policy. Furthermore, she said they won’t comment on specific FX levels and there is no change to their forex stance since the Japan-US joint intervention, while they will closely communicate with the US to achieve orderly forex markets.
- Japan LDP policy chief Kobayashi will retain post and Japan’s Ishin party seeks a special mission post in reshuffle, according to Japanese press.
European bourses are softer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%, with clear underperformance in the SMI, -1.4% (see Novartis below). The disappointing risk tone comes amid upside in energy prices. The Saudi Energy Minister said a number of energy facilities and utilities were hit, resulting in operations being temporarily halted. This was later confirmed in a Yemeni Houthis statement.
Sectors point to a mixed picture. Food, Beverages & Tobacco is the clear outperformer, with Optimised Personal Care and Chemicals rounding out the top 3 sector gainers. On the other hand, Health Care is the laggard, with Banks and Insurance completing the underperformers. Another setback for Novartis (-8.9%) this morning, after it announced that its del-desiran failed to meet the primary endpoints in its late-stage trial. Other key movers: Computacenter (-0.2%), strong H1 metrics and raises its FY26 outlook; Sandoz (+1.8%), confirms its 2028 outlook and set out new 2030 guidance and targets 100 biosimilars by 2040; Infineon (-3.6%), downgraded to equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Schneider Electric (-0.2%), downgraded to neutral at Santander.
Top European News
- German Trade Balance (Jul) 21.3B vs. Exp. 16B (Prev. 15.4B).
- German Exports (Jul MM) -0.8% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.9%).
- German Imports (Jul MM) -5.7% (Prev. 4.4%).
- French Trade Balance (Jul) -6.7B vs. Exp. -6B (Prev. -5.8B).
- UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Aug YY) 0.5% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.0%).
FX
- Snapshot: G10s are mixed against the USD. JPY continues to extend on recent strength, whilst the Kiwi is the clear underperformer this morning amidst the downbeat risk tone. Also factoring in is the mixed Chinese Trade data, which rose from the prior, albeit less than consensus.
- DXY is incrementally firmer this morning, and holds within a 98.71-99.00 range. Overnight, the USD was mildly pressured, but then picked up in early European trade alongside a pick-up in yields. US-specific news flow has been lacking as participants return from holiday, but focus will be on trade updates between the US and Canada. On that note, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs against US goods took effect, as scheduled. The Loonie is a touch firmer vs USD this morning, but likely benefiting from the surge in energy prices rather than any trade-related optimism.
- The Yen story remains much more pertinent for the USD. Recent thin liquidity (due to Labor Day) has allowed the JPY to take more ground against the USD, with USD/JPY briefly dipping below the 153.00 mark. The pair is now trading at levels not seen since early February of this year. As mentioned in Monday’s FX update, the recent hawkish BoJ repricing, potential intervention/rate check, and increased possibility of larger GPIF purchases have lifted the JPY over the past couple of weeks.
- Also helping the outperformance today is the firmer-than-expected Labour Cash Earnings and an upward Q2 GDP revision. There were also comments from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, who stated there was no change to their forex stance since the Japan-US joint intervention and that they will closely communicate with the US to achieve orderly forex markets.
- EUR is a touch lower this morning, pressured by the ongoing strength in the energy space. The ECB will hike rates by 25bps this Thursday, though the outlook beyond September remains more uncertain. If oil prices continue to lift energy prices, and second-round effects begin to filter through into the Eurozone economy, another hike in December could be likely. The single currency currently holds around 1.1611, with the high of the day a couple pips above its 200-DMA (1.1633).
Fixed Income
- Despite some slight respite being found overnight, fixed income is back in the red as energy extends to fresh highs and Brent surpasses the USD 99.0/bbl handle, bringing a return back to USD 100/bbl into view. As such, yields are bid across the globe and the curve, with the UK feeling this most keenly given its energy sensitivity and after AMZN filing for GBP-denominated issuance.
- Continuing with Gilts, the benchmark opened higher by around 13 ticks, taking initial respite from the brief overnight pause and potentially reports that PM Burnham is set to meet with businesses next week to reassure them into the budget. However, that swiftly faded with Gilts now down by over 10 ticks and at an 85.56 base following the Amazon update. For the curve, the 2yr is 4bps higher at 4.61%, but off the 4.69% recent peak from last week. While the 10yr is c. 3bps higher, and similarly off last week’s 5.29% near 20yr peak.
- Bunds lower, by about 10 ticks at the time of writing and just off worst in 121.65-95 confines. Pressure a function of the discussed energy upside on Saudi and Houthi updates this morning (see Commodities/headline feed). For Germany, the docket features Green supply which should pass without issue. More pertinently, we continue to await a concrete response from Chancellor Merz on the strength of AfD, something that will become increasingly acute into more regional elections this month. Before that though, the ECB looms on Thursday, and while a 25bps hike is all but priced, the market will be keenly attentive to any dovish/hawkish signal from the statement/forecasts/presser, particularly at the short-end of the curve.
- USTs are also under pressure on the resumption of cash trade after the US holiday on Monday. Currently, it finds itself lower by a handful of ticks and at a 107-09+ base, approaching Monday’s 107-08 trough. The docket today features supply and updates from President Trump as the scheduled highlights; though, geopolitics may well dominate.
- Amazon (AMZN) to sell GBP-denominated bonds; 3yr, 6yr, 12yr & 19yr.
- Germany sells EUR 1.374bln vs exp. 1.5bln 2.30% 2033 and 2.60% 2041 Green Bund.
- Japan sells JPY 1.9tln 5-year JGBs; b/c 3.42x (prev. 4.15x), average yield 2.239% (prev. 2.020%), Tail in price 0.04 (prev. 0.02).
- The Netherlands sells EUR 3bln vs exp. 2.5-3bln 2.75% 2036 DSL: Avg. yield 3.463% (prev. 3.206%).
- Australia sells AUD 400mln in 5.00% June 2036 Bonds: b/c 5.76x, avg. yield 5.1874%.
Commodities
- Firmer trade across energy once again as geopolitical tensions remain high, and with hardly any signs of peace between the US and Iran (more details below). WTI Oct resides towards the top of a USD 90.87-94.73/bbl range (vs Friday’s USD 88.72-92.17/bbl band), while Brent Nov sits towards the upper end of a USD 96.78-99.46/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 95.97-98.06/bbl band). Dutch TTF front-month resides just above the EUR 74/MWh mark after finding earlier support at EUR 73/MWh and then resistance at EUR 74.50/MWh.
- Precious metals are subdued as higher energy prices keep the USD underpinned. Spot gold resides towards the bottom of a USD 4,388-4,443/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 4,381-4,435/oz band), while spot silver sits towards the lower end of a USD 65.69-67.19/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 65.40-66.74/oz band).
- Base metals are mostly firmer despite the aforementioned crude prices and effect on the USD, with supply concerns and tariff fears cited by desks, alongside ongoing hopes of Chinese stimulus. 3M LME copper resides near record highs in a current USD 14.51k-14.64k/t range.
- In terms of the main geopolitical updates, Iran warned that economic warfare will be met with a maritime exclusion zone from the Persian Gulf to the blockade perimeter, and said it has the ability to strike ships participating in the US blockade. Further, Yemeni forces launched ballistic missile and drone attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia, including around Khamis Mushait, Abha airport and King Khalid Airbase. Houthi spokesperson warned that further attacks on Yemen will be met with broader strikes on Saudi Arabia. Saudi Energy Minister confirmed that several energy facilities and utilities were hit; are temporarily halting some operations. Further, Tasnim analysis suggests that recent Iranian commentary indicates that Iran is considering expanding the geographic scope of its maritime confrontation into the northern Indian Ocean.
- Iraqi Oil Minister said they will soon announce refinery development and construction opportunities for investors.
- Russia’s Kremlin spokesperson said cooperation between India and Russia on rare earth explorations are being discussed.
Trade/Tariffs
- Canada’s retaliatory tariffs against US goods took effect, as scheduled.
- US President Trump called for a stop to US sales of Canada’s Bombardier aircraft.
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said China’s anti-dumping move targeting Japan defies practice and they will act to prevent an undue impact from China’s actions.
Central Banks
- RBA’s Hauser said that the RBA stands ready to raise rates again if needed, the question is whether more is needed on interest rates.
- RBA’s Assistant Governor Hunter said the board is concerned about inflation and has low tolerance, adding the board may have to raise rates if there is a sense inflation will be stronger.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- US President Trump posted, “Oil prices will drop precipitously, like everything else is dropping (but more!), when we WIN the war with Iran. Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars a gallon. It will all happen quickly, and Iran will never have a Nuclear Weapon. MAGA!”
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran has always opposed war but will continue to resist aggression with full force until the aggressors are made to regret their actions.
- Iran’s top national security official Rezaei said Washington has received a clear warning from Iran’s new missiles and that economic warfare will be met with a maritime exclusion zone across the Persian Gulf to the blockade perimeter, while he added that the operational posture toward US warships and bases has been fundamentally recalibrated.
- Tasnim analysis suggests that commentary from Iranian official Rezaei signals that Iran is considering expanding the geographic scope of its maritime confrontation into the northern Indian Ocean.
- Saudi Energy Minister said a number of energy facilities and utilities were hit and that some operations have been temporarily halted. This was later confirmed by the Houthis, in which they added that they struck the Khamis Mushait Air Base in retaliation to recent Saudi airstrikes. The group warned that further attacks on Yemen will be met with broader strikes on Saudi.
Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces struck energy infrastructure and drone-manufacturing facilities in Odessa and the Odessa region.
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov rejected a proposal to halt strikes on civilian supply vessels in the Black Sea, Interfax reported.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said he hopes to meet US President Trump later in September to discuss the winter air defence package.
Crypto
- Bitcoin has extended on Monday’s losses and currently trades at the lower end of its USD 78.2k-USD79.5k range.
- Republican senators have suggested that the bipartisan crypto regulatory bill is likely to fail next week, Semafor reported.
US Event Calendar
- 6:00 am: United States Aug NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 99.3, prior 99.8
- 11:00am: NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations, est 3.60%
- 3:00pm: Consumer Credit
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Today kicks off the “home straight” to the end of the year after yesterday’s Labor Day holiday where markets were understandably quiet with what focus there was on oil and German politics. Brent (+0.75%) continued to edge higher which helped the 10yr bund (+4.8bps) close at another post-2011 high of 3.39% with equities fairly subdued. US equity futures have just ticked very slightly into positive territory this morning after being slightly below for most of the session yesterday when the cash market was closed. Elsewhere the Yen is up half a percent to 153.52 and to the highest level since February.
This has likely been helped by Japan’s real wages increasing by +2.4% year-on-year in July, exceeding expectations of +1.8% and marking the strongest growth since May 2021. This also represents the seventh consecutive month of wage gains, indicating a gradual improvement in income trends. Meanwhile, total cash earnings rose +4.7%, the largest increase since January 1997, accelerating from a revised +4.0% increase in June. The stronger-than-expected wage data reinforces the overwhelming case for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates at next week’s policy meeting, following its previous hike three months ago, and supports the prospect of further monetary policy tightening in the months ahead. Q2 GDP has also been revised up overnight, moving from 1.1% annualised to 1.4%. However, expectations were at 1.8%.
In the rest of Asia, the KOSPI (+1.54%) is being driven by the tech rebound again, while the Nikkei is close to flat. The Hang Seng (-0.27%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.32%) are moving in different directions with the ASX (-0.84%) the largest decliner.
In a low energy 24 hours the Middle East story has rumbled on as concerns about fresh US-Iran hostilities pushed oil prices higher still. In part, that followed the tanker attacks over the weekend, but it was also reported that the Houthi rebels had hit Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure yesterday. So that helped push Brent crude (+0.75%) to a 6-week high of $97.00/bbl, with WTI also up +1.33% to $92.70/bbl. Brent is up another +0.62% this morning. And there was no sign of respite on the gas front either, with European natural gas futures (+1.93%) also rising back to €73.34/MWh. So that exacerbated fears about European inflation, with the 1yr Euro inflation swap (+10.6bps) up to its highest level since May 2026, at 3.37%.
With inflation fears mounting, that lifted European bond yields across the continent. So by the close, the German 2yr yield (+5.6bps) was back up to 3.00%, which is its highest level since June 2024. And further out the curve, the 10yr yield (+4.8bps) was up to a post-2011 high of 3.39%. Moreover, those moves were echoed elsewhere, with yields on 10yr OATs (+5.5bps), BTPs (+5.6bps) and gilts (+4.2bps) all rising as well.
That rise in yields came as traders grew increasingly confident in future ECB rate hikes this year. In fact, investors were pricing 48bps of further hikes by the ECB’s December meeting at the close, up +2bps on the day. And as a reminder, our own European economics team also revised their ECB forecasts last week, so they expect the ECB to hike this week, and follow that up with another hike at the December meeting. See here for more on their view.
Amidst all that, European equities were fairly steady, despite the rise in energy prices and the slightly hawkish rates repricing. The STOXX 600 ultimately closed up a whisker (+0.003%), with gains for France’s CAC 40 (+0.33%), alongside declines for the FTSE 100 (-0.08%) and the DAX (-0.15%). Sentiment was bolstered by positive revisions to the Q2 GDP numbers in the Eurozone, which were revised up to a +0.6% print from +0.4% at the preliminary reading. However, there was some weakness in Germany, where data showed industrial production fell -1.1% on the month (vs. +0.2% expected).
Staying on Europe, German politics remained front and centre yesterday after the AfD came first in Saxony-Anhalt’s state election, winning 43.8% of the total votes, and just a few seats short of an absolute majority. Following the result, Chancellor Merz said in a press conference that he would double down on the reform course, with no indication of planned changes despite Merz saying he was “deeply shocked” by his CDU’s weak performance.
Early morning data from China indicated continued strength in trade activity, providing support for economic growth despite uneven domestic demand. Exports surged +25.0% y/y in August (v/s +25.9% expected), accelerating from +23.9% in the previous month. Imports also remained robust, rising +28.2%, up from a revised +27.6% previously, although slightly below forecasts for a +31.0% increase. As a result, China’s trade surplus expanded to $119.09 billion, compared with $112.34 billion in the prior month and broadly in line with market expectations of $119.10 billion.
Finally on the inflation theme, copper hit an all-time high (+0.57%) on the London Metal Exchange yesterday, rising above $14,415 per ton. That comes amidst ongoing supply concerns, and the prospect of potential US tariffs on copper. So one to watch going forward.
Finally in another research advert, Henry published his latest market dislocations report yesterday. This month, he looked at why the current cross-asset equilibrium remains unsustainable, and how several asset classes are vulnerable to the impact of building inflationary pressures and a faster tightening cycle from central banks. See the full report here.
Looking at the day ahead, US markets are back open with the NFIB’s small business optimism index for August, the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, and July consumer credit data releases. In Europe, we’ll also get Germany’s July trade balance and France’s July current account. Finally, Canada’s counter-tariffs on US imports are set to enter force today
1b European opening report
Surging energy prices lift yields and weighs on US equity futures; Saudi said some energy operations were temporarily halted – Newsquawk US Market Open
Tuesday, Sep 08, 2026 – 05:50 AM
- Yemeni Houthis confirm that they hit a Saudi Aramco oil refinery and targeted an air base in retaliation for recent Saudi strikes.
- Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods took effect as scheduled, while US President Trump called for a halt to US sales of Bombardier aircraft.
- US equity futures trade lower as participants return from holiday; Novartis suffers after key drug misses primary endpoints.
- USD helped by higher energy prices; JPY continues to firm, helped by strong growth and wage data.
- Fixed income benchmarks fall, with Gilts underperforming as Amazon (AMZN) files for GBP-denominated debt.
- Crude complex rises following the Saudi and Yemeni Houthi update.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly. Speakers include ECB’s Elderson, BoE’s Bailey, Ramsden, Greene & Taylor. Supply from the US.
SNAPSHOT
LABOR DAY RECAP
- On the geopolitical front, the US launched strikes against three Iranian crude oil tankers on Saturday in retaliation for the IRGC targeting US Navy warships with ballistic missiles. Iran’s navy also said it targeted three oil tankers that were travelling through unauthorised routes in the Strait of Hormuz and three additional US vessels in other areas. Since the weekend, the Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said a deal with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz will be registered soon, while the FT reported that Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities in Jizan were hit, which caused upside in energy benchmarks.
- European bourses were lower across the board, given the upside seen in energy benchmarks.
- In the FX space, G10s were firmer against the greenback, with the JPY the clear outperformer, while the EUR was steady despite the AfD victory in Saxony-Anholt.
- In the metals space, spot gold was choppy but was helped amid data from China that the PBoC boosted its gold reserves for a 22nd straight month.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are softer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%, with clear underperformance in the SMI, -1.4% (see Novartis below). The disappointing risk tone comes amid upside in energy prices. The Saudi Energy Minister said a number of energy facilities and utilities were hit, resulting in operations being temporarily halted. This was later confirmed in a Yemeni Houthis statement.
- Sectors point to a mixed picture. Food, Beverages & Tobacco is the clear outperformer, with Optimised Personal Care and Chemicals rounding out the top 3 sector gainers. On the other hand, Health Care is the laggard, with Banks and Insurance completing the underperformers.
- Another setback for Novartis (-8.9%) this morning, after it announced that its del-desiran failed to meet the primary endpoints in its late-stage trial. Other key movers: Computacenter (-0.2%), strong H1 metrics and raises its FY26 outlook; Sandoz (+1.8%), confirms its 2028 outlook and set out new 2030 guidance and targets 100 biosimilars by 2040; Infineon (-3.6%), downgraded to equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Schneider Electric (-0.2%), downgraded to neutral at Santander.
- US equity futures point to a softer open, ES -0.3%, in line with their European peers as the cash market returns from holiday.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
FX
- Snapshot: G10s are mixed against the USD. JPY continues to extend on recent strength, whilst the Kiwi is the clear underperformer this morning amidst the downbeat risk tone. Also factoring in is the mixed Chinese Trade data, which rose from the prior, albeit less than consensus.
- DXY is incrementally firmer this morning, and holds within a 98.71-99.00 range. Overnight, the USD was mildly pressured, but then picked up in early European trade alongside a pick-up in yields. US-specific news flow has been lacking as participants return from holiday, but focus will be on trade updates between the US and Canada. On that note, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs against US goods took effect, as scheduled. The Loonie is a touch firmer vs USD this morning, but likely benefiting from the surge in energy prices rather than any trade-related optimism.
- The Yen story remains much more pertinent for the USD. Recent thin liquidity (due to Labor Day) has allowed the JPY to take more ground against the USD, with USD/JPY briefly dipping below the 153.00 mark. The pair is now trading at levels not seen since early February of this year. As mentioned in Monday’s FX update, the recent hawkish BoJ repricing, potential intervention/rate check, and increased possibility of larger GPIF purchases have lifted the JPY over the past couple of weeks.
- Also helping the outperformance today is the firmer-than-expected Labour Cash Earnings and an upward Q2 GDP revision. There were also comments from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, who stated there was no change to their forex stance since the Japan-US joint intervention and that they will closely communicate with the US to achieve orderly forex markets.
- EUR is a touch lower this morning, pressured by the ongoing strength in the energy space. The ECB will hike rates by 25bps this Thursday, though the outlook beyond September remains more uncertain. If oil prices continue to lift energy prices, and second-round effects begin to filter through into the Eurozone economy, another hike in December could be likely. The single currency currently holds around 1.1611, with the high of the day a couple pips above its 200-DMA (1.1633).
FIXED INCOME
- Despite some slight respite being found overnight, fixed income is back in the red as energy extends to fresh highs and Brent surpasses the USD 99.0/bbl handle, bringing a return back to USD 100/bbl into view. As such, yields are bid across the globe and the curve, with the UK feeling this most keenly given its energy sensitivity and after AMZN filing for GBP-denominated issuance.
- Continuing with Gilts, the benchmark opened higher by around 13 ticks, taking initial respite from the brief overnight pause and potentially reports that PM Burnham is set to meet with businesses next week to reassure them into the budget. However, that swiftly faded with Gilts now down by over 10 ticks and at an 85.56 base following the Amazon update. For the curve, the 2yr is 4bps higher at 4.61%, but off the 4.69% recent peak from last week. While the 10yr is c. 3bps higher, and similarly off last week’s 5.29% near 20yr peak.
- Bunds lower, by about 10 ticks at the time of writing and just off worst in 121.65-95 confines. Pressure a function of the discussed energy upside on Saudi and Houthi updates this morning (see Commodities/headline feed). For Germany, the docket features Green supply which should pass without issue. More pertinently, we continue to await a concrete response from Chancellor Merz on the strength of AfD, something that will become increasingly acute into more regional elections this month. Before that though, the ECB looms on Thursday, and while a 25bps hike is all but priced, the market will be keenly attentive to any dovish/hawkish signal from the statement/forecasts/presser, particularly at the short-end of the curve.
- USTs are also under pressure on the resumption of cash trade after the US holiday on Monday. Currently, it finds itself lower by a handful of ticks and at a 107-09+ base, approaching Monday’s 107-08 trough. The docket today features supply and updates from President Trump as the scheduled highlights; though, geopolitics may well dominate.
- Amazon (AMZN) to sell GBP-denominated bonds; 3yr, 6yr, 12yr & 19yr.
- Germany sells EUR 1.374bln vs exp. 1.5bln 2.30% 2033 and 2.60% 2041 Green Bund.
- Japan sells JPY 1.9tln 5-year JGBs; b/c 3.42x (prev. 4.15x), average yield 2.239% (prev. 2.020%), Tail in price 0.04 (prev. 0.02).
- The Netherlands sells EUR 3bln vs exp. 2.5-3bln 2.75% 2036 DSL: Avg. yield 3.463% (prev. 3.206%).
- Australia sells AUD 400mln in 5.00% June 2036 Bonds: b/c 5.76x, avg. yield 5.1874%.
COMMODITIES
- Firmer trade across energy once again as geopolitical tensions remain high, and with hardly any signs of peace between the US and Iran (more details below). WTI Oct resides towards the top of a USD 90.87-94.73/bbl range (vs Friday’s USD 88.72-92.17/bbl band), while Brent Nov sits towards the upper end of a USD 96.78-99.46/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 95.97-98.06/bbl band). Dutch TTF front-month resides just above the EUR 74/MWh mark after finding earlier support at EUR 73/MWh and then resistance at EUR 74.50/MWh.
- Precious metals are subdued as higher energy prices keep the USD underpinned. Spot gold resides towards the bottom of a USD 4,388-4,443/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 4,381-4,435/oz band), while spot silver sits towards the lower end of a USD 65.69-67.19/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 65.40-66.74/oz band).
- Base metals are mostly firmer despite the aforementioned crude prices and effect on the USD, with supply concerns and tariff fears cited by desks, alongside ongoing hopes of Chinese stimulus. 3M LME copper resides near record highs in a current USD 14.51k-14.64k/t range.
- In terms of the main geopolitical updates, Iran warned that economic warfare will be met with a maritime exclusion zone from the Persian Gulf to the blockade perimeter, and said it has the ability to strike ships participating in the US blockade. Further, Yemeni forces launched ballistic missile and drone attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia, including around Khamis Mushait, Abha airport and King Khalid Airbase. Houthi spokesperson warned that further attacks on Yemen will be met with broader strikes on Saudi Arabia. Saudi Energy Minister confirmed that several energy facilities and utilities were hit; are temporarily halting some operations. Further, Tasnim analysis suggests that recent Iranian commentary indicates that Iran is considering expanding the geographic scope of its maritime confrontation into the northern Indian Ocean.
- Iraqi Oil Minister said they will soon announce refinery development and construction opportunities for investors.
- Russia’s Kremlin spokesperson said cooperation between India and Russia on rare earth explorations are being discussed.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- Canada’s retaliatory tariffs against US goods took effect, as scheduled.
- US President Trump called for a stop to US sales of Canada’s Bombardier aircraft.
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said China’s anti-dumping move targeting Japan defies practice and they will act to prevent an undue impact from China’s actions.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- German Trade Balance (Jul) 21.3B vs. Exp. 16B (Prev. 15.4B).
- German Exports (Jul MM) -0.8% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.9%).
- German Imports (Jul MM) -5.7% (Prev. 4.4%).
- French Trade Balance (Jul) -6.7B vs. Exp. -6B (Prev. -5.8B).
- UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Aug YY) 0.5% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.0%).
CENTRAL BANKS
- RBA’s Hauser said that the RBA stands ready to raise rates again if needed, the question is whether more is needed on interest rates.
- RBA’s Assistant Governor Hunter said the board is concerned about inflation and has low tolerance, adding the board may have to raise rates if there is a sense inflation will be stronger.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump posted, “Oil prices will drop precipitously, like everything else is dropping (but more!), when we WIN the war with Iran. Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars a gallon. It will all happen quickly, and Iran will never have a Nuclear Weapon. MAGA!”
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran has always opposed war but will continue to resist aggression with full force until the aggressors are made to regret their actions.
- Iran’s top national security official Rezaei said Washington has received a clear warning from Iran’s new missiles and that economic warfare will be met with a maritime exclusion zone across the Persian Gulf to the blockade perimeter, while he added that the operational posture toward US warships and bases has been fundamentally recalibrated.
- Tasnim analysis suggests that commentary from Iranian official Rezaei signals that Iran is considering expanding the geographic scope of its maritime confrontation into the northern Indian Ocean.
- Saudi Energy Minister said a number of energy facilities and utilities were hit and that some operations have been temporarily halted. This was later confirmed by the Houthis, in which they added that they struck the Khamis Mushait Air Base in retaliation to recent Saudi airstrikes. The group warned that further attacks on Yemen will be met with broader strikes on Saudi.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces struck energy infrastructure and drone-manufacturing facilities in Odessa and the Odessa region.
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov rejected a proposal to halt strikes on civilian supply vessels in the Black Sea, Interfax reported.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said he hopes to meet US President Trump later in September to discuss the winter air defence package.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin has extended on Monday’s losses and currently trades at the lower end of its USD 78.2k-USD79.5k range.
- Republican senators have suggested that the bipartisan crypto regulatory bill is likely to fail next week, Semafor reported.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded mixed in the absence of a lead from Wall Street and as attention turned to several data releases from the region, including Japanese GDP and Chinese trade data.
- ASX 200 underperformed with sentiment not helped by a deterioration in the Westpac Consumer Sentiment and NAB Business Confidence surveys.
- Nikkei 225 was choppy amid recent currency strength and as the latest data, including upward GDP revisions and hot Labour Cash Earnings, solidified the case for a BoJ rate hike next week.
- KOSPI outperformed on tech momentum and after South Korean GDP matched initial estimates.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the Hong Kong benchmark was dragged lower by weakness in the local tech and biopharma stocks, while the mainland was kept afloat as participants digested the ultimately mixed Chinese trade data, in which Exports and Imports accelerated and continued to show strong double-digit percentage growth, but missed estimates.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they will bolster efforts to secure funding for a consumption tax cut on food and will communicate fully with markets and the public to gain credibility in their fiscal policy. Furthermore, she said they won’t comment on specific FX levels and there is no change to their forex stance since the Japan-US joint intervention, while they will closely communicate with the US to achieve orderly forex markets.
- Japan LDP policy chief Kobayashi will retain post and Japan’s Ishin party seeks a special mission post in reshuffle, according to Japanese press.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Chinese Trade Balance (Aug) 119.1B vs. Exp. 119.1B (Prev. 112.5B).
- Chinese Exports (Aug YY) 25% vs. Exp. 25.9% (Prev. 23.9%).
- Chinese Imports (Aug YY) 28.2% vs. Exp. 30% (Prev. 27.5%).
- Japanese GDP Growth Rate Final (Q2 QQ) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.5%).
- Japanese GDP Growth Annualized Final (Q2) 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1.8%).
- Japanese Average Cash Earnings (Jul YY) 4.7% vs. Exp. 3.9% (Prev. 4.0%).
1 c Asian opening report
USD/JPY briefly dipped below 153.00; European equity futures are indicative of a flat open – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Tuesday, Sep 08, 2026 – 01:34 AM
- Iran warned that economic warfare will be met with a maritime exclusion zone from the Persian Gulf to the blockade perimeter, and said it has the ability to strike ships participating in the US blockade.
- Yemeni forces reportedly launched ballistic missile and drone attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia, including around Khamis Mushait, Abha airport and King Khalid Airbase.
- Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods took effect as scheduled, while US President Trump called for a halt to US sales of Bombardier aircraft.
- USD/JPY extended declines and briefly dipped beneath the 153.00 level as the yen continues to strengthen amid BoJ rate hike expectations; Japanese GDP was revised higher and wage growth beat expectations.
- APAC stocks traded mixed in the absence of a lead from Wall Street; European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade Balance (Jul), US ADP Employment Change Weekly. Speakers include ECB’s Elderson, BoE’s Bailey, Ramsden, Greene & Taylor. Supply from the Netherlands, Germany & the US.
SNAPSHOT
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IRAN CONFLICT
- Iran’s top national security official Rezaee said Washington has received a clear warning from Iran’s new missiles and that economic warfare will be met with a maritime exclusion zone across the Persian Gulf to the blockade perimeter, while he added that the operational posture toward US warships and bases has been fundamentally recalibrated.
- Iran’s acting Minister of Defence Ibn Al-Reza said they have the ability to strike ships participating in the US blockade against Iran.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi held a call with the new Secretary-General of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and briefed him on the regional situation, while he urged Islamic states to take unified, responsible measures to safeguard Iranian sovereignty.
- Iran’s envoy to the IAEA warned that US or Israeli strikes on Iran’s IAEA-safeguarded peaceful nuclear facilities, if ‘normalised’, would have serious consequences.
- Yemeni armed forces spokesperson said Saudi Arabia would not go unpunished for its ongoing acts of aggression following a Saudi air strike on a correctional facility in Al-Jawf, which resulted in over a dozen casualties.
- Several explosions were reported in the southwest of Saudi Arabia due to Yemeni ballistic missiles being fired at the city of Khamis Mushait and Yemeni drone attacks on the Abha airport in the province of Asir, while it was also reported that Yemeni forces targeted King Khalid Airbase.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stock markets were closed for Labor Day.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- Canada’s retaliatory tariffs against US goods took effect, as scheduled.
- US President Trump called for a stop to US sales of Canada’s Bombardier aircraft.
- Latvian PM said they plan to impose a 300% tariff on grain arriving from Russia and Belarus.
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said China’s anti-dumping move targeting Japan defies practice and they will act to prevent an undue impact from China’s actions.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks traded mixed in the absence of a lead from Wall Street and as attention turned to several data releases from the region, including Japanese GDP and Chinese trade data.
- ASX 200 underperformed with sentiment not helped by a deterioration in the Westpac Consumer Sentiment and NAB Business Confidence surveys.
- Nikkei 225 was choppy amid recent currency strength and as the latest data, including upward GDP revisions and hot Labour Cash Earnings, solidified the case for a BoJ rate hike next week.
- KOSPI outperformed on tech momentum and after South Korean GDP matched initial estimates.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the Hong Kong benchmark was dragged lower by weakness in the local tech and biopharma stocks, while the mainland was kept afloat as participants digested the ultimately mixed Chinese trade data, in which Exports and Imports accelerated and continued to show strong double-digit percentage growth, but missed estimates.
- US equity futures were mixed following the holiday lull and as Canada’s retaliatory tariffs took effect.
- European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.2% on Monday.
FX
- DXY slightly softened but with downside stemmed amid mixed performances against its major peers and with a lack of fresh catalysts stateside following the Labor Day holiday, while trade frictions lingered as Canada’s retaliatory tariffs of 15%-50% on US goods, announced last month, took effect overnight.
- EUR/USD trades indecisively at the 1.1600 handle amid quiet newsflow from the bloc and despite the recent upward revisions to EU GDP data.
- GBP/USD lacked conviction and was contained by near-term resistance around the 1.3550 level, while there are several BoE speakers scheduled today, including Bailey, Ramsden, Greene and Taylor.
- USD/JPY extended declines and briefly dipped beneath the 153.00 level as the yen continues to strengthen amid BoJ rate hike expectations and following data releases including firmer-than-expected Labour Cash Earnings and an upward Q2 GDP revision. There were also comments from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, who stated there was no change to their forex stance since the Japan-US joint intervention and that they will closely communicate with the US to achieve orderly forex markets.
- Antipodeans were constrained after a deterioration in Westpac Consumer Sentiment and NAB Business Confidence from Australia, while the currencies were also not helped by the somewhat mixed trade data from both Australia and New Zealand’s largest trading partner.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7804 vs Exp. 6.7104 (prev. 6.7795).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures eked slight gains in quiet trade following the recent holiday lull and with prices also not helped by looming supply, with a US 3yr note auction scheduled later.
- Bund futures nursed some of the prior day’s losses but with upside limited ahead of German Trade Data and with EUR 7bln of Bund issuances due Tuesday-Wednesday.
- 10yr JGB futures rallied as long-term yields declined despite stronger-than-expected revised GDP data and firmer Labour Cash Earnings, while JGBs were also unfazed by a weaker 5yr auction.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures gradually edged higher to extend the prior day’s gains in the absence of a settlement due to the recent Labor Day holiday and following the weekend tit-for-tat attacks on vessels.
- US President Trump posted, “Oil prices will drop precipitously, like everything else is dropping (but more!), when we WIN the war with Iran. Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars a gallon. It will all happen quickly, and Iran will never have a Nuclear Weapon. MAGA!”
- Spot gold steadily gained above the USD 4,400/oz level after shrugging off the recent choppy trade.
- Copper futures rallied after LME prices surged to a record high amid supply concerns and tariff fears.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin retreated in a choppy fashion with prices dipping beneath the USD 79,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they will bolster efforts to secure funding for a consumption tax cut on food and will communicate fully with markets and the public to gain credibility in their fiscal policy. Furthermore, she said they won’t comment on specific FX levels and there is no change to their forex stance since the Japan-US joint intervention, while they will closely communicate with the US to achieve orderly forex markets.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Trade Balance (USD(Aug) 119.1B vs. Exp. 119.1B (Prev. 112.5B)
- Chinese Exports YY (USD)(Aug) 25.0% vs. Exp. 25.9% (Prev. 23.9%)
- Chinese Imports YY (USD)(Aug) 28.2% vs. Exp. 30% (Prev. 27.5%)
- Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Aug) 809.3B vs. Exp. 795B (Prev. 767.07B)
- Chinese Exports YY (CNY)(Aug) 18.6% (Prev. 17.8%)
- Chinese Imports YY (CNY)(Aug) 21.7% (Prev. 21.2%)
- Japanese GDP Growth Rate Final QQ (Q2) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.5%)
- Japanese GDP Growth Annualised Final (Q2) 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1.8%)
- Japanese Average Cash Earnings (Jul YY) 4.7% vs. Exp. 3.9% (Prev. 4.0%)
- South Korean GDP Growth Rate Final QQ (Q2) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 1.8%)
- South Korean GDP Growth Rate Final YY (Q2) 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.6%)
- Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Sep) -5.2% (Prev. 6.0%)
- Australian NAB Business Confidence (Aug) -8 (Prev. -6)
- Australian NAB Business Conditions (Aug) -1 (Prev. 4)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel’s army announced that a large-scale operation was launched in the Shuafat refugee camp and Anata town east of Jerusalem.
- Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich said Israel will expel the UK ambassador, while he accused the UK government of “anti-Semitism” and of attacking Israel. In relevant news, Israel’s National Security Minister Ben-Gvir posted, “It is time for the State of Israel to publicly recognise that the Falkland Islands are occupied Argentine territory, violently stolen from the Argentine people by the British.”
- UK government will accelerate sanctions against Israeli settlements in the West Bank, while the sanctions could include a ban on trade with West Bank settlements, according to The Telegraph.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Explosions were heard in Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said the US is exploring whether Ukraine and Russia could take steps to de-escalate the war in the winter while restarting negotiations for a broader peace agreement, according to an interview with Axios.
- US President Trump and UK PM Burnham discussed working towards a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire during a call, according to Downing Street.
- France said its plan to send air defence systems to Ukraine is on track.
OTHER
- Cuba’s Foreign Minister said there has been no progress, no negotiations, nor any agenda for future negotiations with the US.
- South Korea notified the IAEA of its intent to consult on safeguards arrangement for nuclear-powered subs
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK PM Burnham will host bosses next Monday to reassure the private sector that Labour has a sound economic growth plan amid fears that next month’s budget will hike business taxes.
- US President Trump and UK PM Burnham held a phone call, while The Sun reported that they are expected to meet at the UNGA, with a possible Oval Office visit beforehand under discussion.
- King Charles will host a closed-door AI meeting later this month, with NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Huang and DeepMind Chair Hassabis invited.
- European Commission signalled greater willingness to consider large corporate mergers, with top competition official Whelan noting that deals which help companies scale up and innovate will get a closer hearing, according to FT
DATA RECAP
- UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Aug YY) 0.5% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.0%)
6730
2.NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA/
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA
JAPAN
3. CHINA/
CHINA/USA
New Images Reveal China’s Stealth Drone At Secretive “Area 51” Base
Saturday, Sep 05, 2026 – 09:35 PM
Aviation researcher Andreas Rupprecht posted footage on LinkedIn that appears to show China’s next-generation high-altitude intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance drone, an aircraft he estimates is “comparable in size to the US Air Force’s B-21 Raider.”
Rupprecht wrote on LinkedIn that the WZ-X drone was spotted at a secretive air base in China’s Xinjiang region, known to some as China’s version of Area 51:
Two new images of the PLAAF’s latest and largest intercontinental HALE ISR #UAV, provisionally referred to simply as the #WZ-X, have been leaked, apparently showing the aircraft somewhere in Xinjiang. The UAV was first spotted on satellite imagery in May 2025 at the PLAAF’s UAV test centre at Malan Air Base in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of northwestern China.
Rupprecht continued:
In recent years, Malan/Uxxaktal (ZWML) has developed into the PLAAF’s main test centre for trialling UAVs and UCAVs of all types, while also serving as the base of the 178th UAV Brigade. Satellite imagery from 2022 onwards shows extensive expansion of the base’s infrastructure, including new hangars, taxiways and facilities likely linked to the previously unknown, very large flying-wing UAVs WZ-X and the similarly mysterious UCAV GJ-X, both of which are roughly comparable in size to the B-21 Raider. As such, the base, much like the second secret air base at Lop Nur, which is likely focused more on manned systems such as the J-36, J-XDS and, eventually, the H-20, is often compared to the US Area 51 because of its remote location and its role in testing next-generation weapon systems.
Based on the few, often blurry, images available, the WZ-X appears to be a twin-engined flying-wing design similar in configuration to the US RQ-180, but considerably larger. Rough estimates suggest a wingspan of about 52 m and a length of roughly 14 m. Its two engines, of unknown type, are reportedly fed by a central top-mounted intake, allegedly covered by a conformal mesh to reduce radar cross-section. Apart from its very wide span, the design appears to feature a relatively spacious central fuselage section and a dorsal SATCOM antenna. Its range is estimated at more than 20,000 km, with a normal cruising altitude of 18-20 km and a cruising speed of Mach 0.5-0.65. As for the manufacturer, some sources claim it was developed by Nantong University (NTU), located in Nantong, Jiangsu province.
The WZ-X could help Beijing locate warships, map air defenses and relay targeting information to China’s massive arsenal of long-range missiles, as well as hypersonic weapons, in the event of a conflict over Taiwan
Last week, a new report from Taiwan’s leading English-language daily newspaper, the Taipei Times, revealed that China had deployed a record 244 coast guard, research and other government vessels around the island.
Technical details about the WZ-X remain scarce, and claims about its capabilities remain unverified. However, the expanding infrastructure at Malan and repeated sightings suggest that the aircraft is undergoing flight testing.
END
CHINA
China’s Provinces Show Evidence Of Financial Pressure And The Economy’s Imbalances
Monday, Sep 07, 2026 – 09:05 PM
Authored by Milton Ezrati via The Epoch Times,
Some 28 provinces and separate jurisdictions increasingly have had to turn to Beijing for help closing budget gaps, according to China’s Ministry of Finance.
It is not unusual for Beijing to have to chip in. It gets the lion’s share of the country’s tax revenues. But the growing need to turn to Beijing nonetheless points to the economy’s imbalances and other problems.
Some transfers from Beijing have occurred since the country’s tax-sharing reforms were implemented in the 1990s. Beijing gets all income tax revenues from both individuals and companies, all securities trading levies, and all customs duties.
Provinces and like entities must depend almost entirely on deed and land appreciation taxes. Even during the boom years of property development, some provinces needed help. Few had what the Chinese call budgetary “self-sufficiency ratios” at 100 percent.
Outlining the most recent data from this year’s first quarter, the deputy director general of the finance ministry’s budget department, Tang Zaifu, downplayed the troubling direction of provincial finances. The figures, however, make clear that self-sufficiency has deteriorated and dependency has grown.
Now, Beijing must cover half the budget needs of the 22 provinces under its control and an additional five separate jurisdictions. (Beijing claims 23 provinces, but one, Taiwan, manages its own budget and obviously is not subject to the People’s Republic of China’s governance.)
The needs of this large number of jurisdictions vary greatly. It is significant, however, that even Shanghai – one of the country’s richest areas – failed to meet its own budget needs during this year’s opening quarter – this for the first time since the pandemic.
Some areas have done comparatively well. Zhejiang, for instance, managed a self-sufficiency ratio of just over 96 percent. Other rich areas, such as Shandong and Guangdong provinces, showed self-sufficiency ratios exceeding 70 percent.
Other areas did less well, a lot less well. Filling all the budget gaps will cost Beijing some 10.5 trillion yuan, more than a third of the government’s entire budget.
Though arcane in many respects, these budget needs and burdens offer yet other perspectives on the imbalances in China’s economy and finances.
The first point that becomes clear is how much China’s economic reality has changed since the still-prevailing budget reform rules of the 1990s. Those revenue-sharing arrangements, implicitly dependent on a booming property development sector, are simply no longer viable. The still-ongoing property crisis has thoroughly reordered the economy.
These budget figures also point, albeit obliquely, to how narrowly focused China’s economy has become. The only reliable growth lies in the mostly high-technology sectors favored by Beijing’s “Made in China 2025” program.
Broad-based development has received short shrift, including the Chinese consumer and investments in other, mostly privately owned sectors, making China’s economy narrower and more export-dependent than ever.
END
CHINA/UKRAINE
KORYBOKO…
Why Won’t China Cut Ukraine Off From Drone-Related Sales?
Tuesday, Sep 08, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
Indefinitely perpetuating the Ukrainian Conflict through these means indefinitely delays the full implementation of the US’ planned “Pivot (back) to (East) Asia”, can lead to Russia selling its natural resource wealth to China at bargain-basement prices, and maintains China’s “active neutrality”.
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) referenced the EU’s summertime disbursement of the first €1 billion to Ukraine for drone procurement out of the €6 billion promised for this program in an article late last month about how “Ukraine’s Drone War Exposes An Uncomfortable Reliance On China“. They drew attention to the carve-out allowing Ukraine to purchase Chinese parts with these funds, ergo the politically incorrect observation back then that “The EU Plans To Pay China To Help Ukraine Kill Russians“.
RFE/RL reported that “While Kyiv has cut back on the purchase of ready-made drones from China, components such as motors, lithium batteries, and fiberoptics are still in high demand.” Additionally, “In the first six months of 2026, imports of Chinese parts had already reached around 76 percent of the total recorded for the previous year.” They also cited a Ukrainian report which claimed that “38 percent of the value of drone components imported by Ukraine in the first half of 2025 came from China.”
The purpose of their piece appears to be to instill a sense of urgency in Ukraine and the West alike to radically ramp up domestic drone production in order to reduce what one of their cited experts described as Ukraine’s “hostile interdependence” on China. They explained that “Beijing remains Kyiv’s largest trading partner, while Ukraine is a key supplier of agricultural goods to China.” That’s true, and it’s one of the reasons why China won’t cut Ukraine off from drone-related sales, but there’s more to it.
While Sino-Russo ties are better than at anytime in history, it was suspected as far back as early 2023 that “China Doesn’t Want Anyone To Win In Ukraine“, the reason being that a supposedly manageable forever war would indefinitely delay the full implementation of the US’ planned “Pivot (back) to (East) Asia“. Moreover, resource-rich Russia could become disproportionately dependent on China, thus leading to Moscow selling its natural wealth to Beijing at bargain-basement prices.
In pursuit of this cynical end, China has simultaneously played an irreplaceable role in providing Ukraine with drones, parts, and fiber optics (even if only indirectly through intermediaries like apologists have speculated) while serving as an irreplaceable valve from sanctions pressure for Russia. Ukraine is therefore able to keep pace with Russia’s military-technical advancements, the Russian economy avoids the crisis that the West sought to catalyze through sanctions, and China maintains its “active neutrality”.
The last point refers to China actively helping Ukraine and Russia, thus making it neutral in the sense of not taking either side. China financially profits from Ukraine’s drone-related purchases, its economy continues growing due to the large-scale import of heavily discounted Russian energy, and it relatively reduces the overall Western pressure upon it by proving that it’s not secretly “allied” with Russia. This policy, for whatever one might think about its merits, indisputably contributed to prolonging the conflict.
Had China cut Ukraine off from its drone-related sales in the spirit of its “no-limits” partnership with Russia that was declared several weeks before the start of special operation, then Russia might have attained more of its stated objectives in the conflict by now, if not outright achieved maximum victory. The US’ military and intelligence support for Ukraine is more important than China’s drone-related sales, but since there’s no end to US support in sight, Russia should try to get China to finally cut Ukraine off.
END
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
UK
The Exodus Continues… Britain’s 3rd Largest Taxpayer Escapes To Greece
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Sep 08, 2026 – 04:15 AM
Britain’s highest taxpayers have been drifting offshore since the non-dom regime was scrapped in April 2025 and inheritance tax was extended to worldwide assets.
This shift is already visible on the Sunday Times lists: six of the 2026 Tax List’s top 100 (including Revolut’s Nik Storonsky) had left in the previous year, the compiler noted that one in nine names on that list were no longer UK-resident, and the companion Rich List dropped dozens of foreign billionaires while recording a sharp rise in British nationals now based in Dubai, Switzerland and Monaco.
But, the latest news is likely the most disturbing to the increasingly socialist government as the UK’s 3rd largest taxpayer – hedge fund founder Chris Rokos – is set to leave.
The star trader paid a stunning £330 million ($447 million) in taxes last year…
That’s one hell of a hole for Burnham and his buddies to fill.
As Bloomberg reports, Rokos is the latest in a string of high-profile financiers and business leaders that have opted to leave.
Since winning the general election in 2024, Labour has targeted wealth with taxes on non-domiciled residents, inheritance on family farms and businesses, private equity and private school fees.
At her last budget, former chancellor Rachel Reeves introduced a tax on homes worth more than £2 million.
With a net worth of about $4 billion according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Rokos is among the UK’s most prominent figures in finance.
The Rokos Capital Management founder is switching his residency to Greece, people with knowledge of the arrangement said.
Rokos will also open an office in Athens as part of the move, one of the people said, asking not to be identified because the details are private.
Greece offers a 15-year high-net-worth investor regime.
Italy operates a similar 15-year system, but after recent increases, it has set the flat tax at €300,000 on foreign-sourced income.
Greece has also sought to lure fund managers and private equity executives, adopting new tax rules this summer designed to prevent double taxation.
If the highest taxpayers keep leaving – as Rokos’s reported move to Greece underlines – Labour’s bet that abolishing non-doms and tightening inheritance tax would raise more money starts to look fragile, because a thin slice of people already supplies a large share of income-tax receipts.
The government then faces an awkward choice: accept a smaller tax base and tighter budgets, or raise rates on the mobile and immobile alike and risk accelerating the outflow it is trying to tax.
END
GERMANY
Germany Braces For AfD Election Breakthrough In Saxony-Anhalt
Saturday, Sep 05, 2026 – 07:35 AM
Voters in Saxony-Anhalt head to the polls on Sunday, followed two weeks later by elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin. With the right-wing Alternative for Germany leading the national polls, the elections could be the opening act of an 18-month period in which Europe “lurches to the right,” as Nomura analysts explained last month.
UniCredit’s chief German economist, Dr. Andreas Rees, told clients on Friday: “Three state elections in just 14 days will test Germany’s government coalition and its reform plans. While political noise is likely to increase, we expect the push for structural reform to remain on track.“
The polling chart compiled by Rees’ team shows the rising popularity of the AfD and the pressure facing Germany’s establishment parties. The AfD leads nationally at roughly 28%, compared with 21% for the CDU/CSU and 12% for the SPD. In Saxony-Anhalt, the gap is far wider, with the AfD polling near 41%, versus 23% for the CDU and just 8% for the SPD. However, CDU/CSU leads over AfD in Berlin.
Rees touched on this Sunday’s big election in Saxony-Anhalt, which could quite possibly usher in AfD leadership:
On Sunday, voters in Saxony-Anhalt will head to the polls; two weeks later, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and the city-state of Berlin will follow. Formally, these are state elections with regional specifics and differences. Politically, however, three elections within 14 days will probably be viewed as a report card for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU-SPD coalition, at a time when the government is trying to move from fiscal firepower towards structural reforms of the pension system, the labour market and bureaucracy.
THE DATA
The starting point is uncomfortable for the conservative CDU/CSU alliance and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). In the latest nationwide opinion polls, the right-wing AfD stood at about 28%, ahead of the CDU/CSU with around 21%, while the SPD came in at just 12%. Recent polls for the state of Saxony-Anhalt, the election federal policymakers may watch most nervously, even put the AfD at around 41%, far ahead of the CDU, which is polling at 23%. The SPD is currently only at around 8%. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD also leads clearly, while the SPD is holding up considerably better. In Berlin, the race is highly fragmented, according to opinion polls.
OUR VIEW
Sunday’s election outcome in Saxony-Anhalt could grab most of the headlines. At current polling levels, the AfD does not have an outright majority. But with several parties, including the SPD, hovering around the 5% threshold, relatively small shifts in votes could translate into larger changes in seats and potentially open the path to an AfD-led government, the first one in a federal state. However, from an investor perspective, there is one question that matters more: what does this all mean for the federal government in Berlin?
- The CDU/CSU-SPD coalition will continue. Even poor results would give neither the conservatives nor the Social Democrats a good reason to leave the government. A weak CDU performance could strengthen demands within the Union for a tougher profile on migration, security and economic competitiveness. A poor SPD result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where the prime minister is a Social Democrat, however, would intensify pressure on the party to defend its social-policy priorities.
- The structural reform agenda remains (largely) intact. At the beginning of July, the CDU/CSU and the SPD agreed on a 34-measure reform package spanning pensions, labour-market rules, competitiveness, taxation and bureaucracy reduction, with key measures intended to pass the Bundestag by the end of this year. Politically, abandoning these reforms after strong AfD results would be difficult for either party to defend. Mr. Merz could argue that voters are punishing weak growth and insufficient change, while the SPD needs to demonstrate that reforms can be combined with social protection.
- A more-fragmented Bundesrat could not block large parts of the reforms. Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin together hold 11 of the Bundesrat’s 69 votes. However, the federal states’ leverage differs substantially across individual reforms. For instance, the envisaged tax cuts for low- and middle-income households, financed by tax hikes on top-income earners, require the Bundesrat’s consent. Core pension and labour-market reforms, meanwhile, are generally not dependent on Bundesrat approval.
Overall, we expect more political noise in the next few weeks, but not political paralysis in Berlin. A few reform measures may be diluted or delayed beyond year-end 2026, but the broader reform push is likely to remain on track.
The rise of the AfD in the polling data is not a surprise. It is a closely watched political theme we have been tracking, and one that has quite clearly terrified German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has fear-mongered about the potential for AfD victories.
The problem with Merz’s AfD fear angle is that Nomura counters it, arguing that markets are welcoming populist right-wing political parties and are more concerned about left-wing regimes that “desire to increase spending, often paid for through higher borrowing or higher taxes, which are likely to shut the engine off of already stuttering economies.”
Here’s the EU election roadmap over the next 18 months, according to Nomura:
The shift to the right is happening across the West.
Brazilian socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s lead over right-wing Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro has imploded. If Bolsonaro can pull off a victory next month, that would cement the continent’s shift from nation-killing left-wing socialism to right-wing common sense.
END
GERMANY
AfD Sweeps Saxony-Anhalt Election In First “Far Right” Victory Since WW2: “Signal To Berlin”
Sunday, Sep 06, 2026 – 02:00 PM
Update(1400ET): In a political earthquake, the AfD has taken a massive lead, per exit polls, at the Saxony-Anhalt election in what the party’s state leader hailed as sending a resounding “signal to Berlin.” This moment marks the first time what has been dubbed a German “far-right party” taking power at a state level since World War II. This is absolutely historic.
“The exit polls, published by German public television stations, suggested that the party, known by its German initials AfD, would win between 39 and 41 seats in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt,” NY Times reports. “That would leave it just short of an absolute majority of 42, but far ahead of its nearest rival.”
But it remains unclear whether it will be able to form a government. Below is the latest via Deutsche Welle:
Alternative for Germany (AfD) co-leader Tino Chrupalla says his party secured a mandate to govern with its strong election result in Saxony-Anhalt.
“We have halved the CDU, so from that point of view it’s a great evening,” Chrupalla told journalists in Magdeburg, referring to an earlier remark by Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader and chancellor Friedrich Merz that AfD’s result could be cut in half.
Chrupalla called the outcome “sensational.”
“Ulrich Siegmund will be the new premier of Saxony-Anhalt,” he said. “From here, we will change Germany.”
If the party falls short of an absolute majority, Chrupalla said it would be open to talks and even suggested an AfD minority government could be tolerated by other parties.
AfD has signaled it is open to a coalition partner that would be open to changing its migration and energy policy – though this option doesn’t seem to be on the political map realistically at this early point.
Youth turn to AfD in droves…
* * *
Voters in Saxony-Anhalt head to the polls today in an election that could deliver Germany’s most massive political shock in decades, with the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland on track to beat Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats.
Final polling estimates put the AfD at 40% to 41%, nearly double the CDU’s 23%. The party’s lead candidate, 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, has ruled out governing in a coalition, suggesting the AfD would need an outright majority to take power of its first German state government.
About 1.7 million people are set to vote today, with polls closing at 6 p.m. local time. AfD’s rapid ascent comes as voters are furious over Germany’s stagnant economy, deindustrialization, energy costs, and the Third World migrant invasion.
The Polymarket bet on how many seats the AfD is expected to win today assigns a 74% probability to 38 to 41 seats, with 42 to 45 seats at 16%.
Ahead of the historic election, thousands of far-left Antifa crazies took to the streets wearing all black and holding Antifa and LGBT flags. Others were seen carrying signs reading “FCK NZS” and “FCK AFD.”
A reported 15,000 left-wing activists joined a so-called pro-democracy festival in the state capital, Magdeburg, on Saturday, organized by the “Saxony-Anhalt Open to the World” alliance. Yet the whole globalist cult in Germany has likely run its course. It has been nothing more than what some call a nation-killing experiment, pushing uncontrolled mass migration and deindustrialization policies that have sent Europe’s largest economy into a tailspin.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Saturday threatened the AfD, saying, “We will not let these people, who trash Germany and everything we have achieved in recent years and decades,” before adding, “We will not let these people talk our country into ruin!”
German politics coverage:
- Germany Braces For AfD Election Breakthrough In Saxony-Anhalt
- Germany’s Anti-Immigration AfD Party Reaches Record Support Days Before Pivotal State Election
- “Citizens Want Political Turnaround”: AfD Now Polls At 43% Across Eastern Germany
- Merz Warns Right-Wing Victory Will Hurt Germany, But Nomura Says Investors Aren’t Buying It
What Nomura analysts see over the next 18-month election cycle across Europe:
Yet what did Merz actually achieve? Destroying Germany’s economy? That is something he certainly accomplished.
END
GERMANY..
‘Deeply Shocked’: Merz Speaks Of ‘Consequences’ After Historic CDU Defeat
Tuesday, Sep 08, 2026 – 05:00 AM
Germany’s political establishment is still absorbing the shock of Sunday’s state election in Saxony-Anhalt, where the Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to 43.8 percent and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Chancellor Friedrich Merz crashed to 17.2 percent.
Merz called the result the CDU’s “heaviest defeat” in decades and said it could not simply be treated as business as usual.
“And I have to admit, this is the heaviest electoral defeat that the CDU has suffered in years, in decades,” Merz told reporters in Berlin after CDU leadership meetings. “We are all deeply shocked…We did not expect it to be like this.”
“That does something to us. Including me personally… All of this will, of course, have to have consequences,” he continued.
It remains unclear what those “consequences” will be exactly, as Merz did not clarify. However, he did point to two upcoming elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, which will be held in the next two weeks. If the CDU faces further routs, there may be pressure for Merz to step down.
He accepted the democratic verdict but insisted the outcome had changed the political landscape “not only in Saxony-Anhalt, but throughout Germany.” When nearly 60 percent of voters backed parties that question the country’s democratic institutions, he said, “that is an election result with which we can not just treat as business as usual.”
Merz said he was searching for explanations, including in his own record: “What fear is there in the population that we may have underestimated?”
Merz has plans to hold talks in the coming days with SPD leaders on how the coalition could continue on its present course. “Giving up is not an option,” he added.
Meanwhile, the AfD federal co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla pledged support for an AfD government in Saxony-Anhalt. Weidel called it a “dream result” and argued Merz had become “a great burden.” She predicted the CDU/CSU would never again win a federal election and said the AfD’s goal was to widen the gap to at least 40 percent by the next national vote. Chrupalla called the outcome “absolutely historic.”
Merz’s coalition partner, Bärbel Bas of the far-left Social Democrats (SPD), used her own press conference to argue that the government’s language on work and welfare had itself fueled public anxiety.
Outgoing Minister-President Sven Schulze was blunt: the CDU no longer held a government mandate and would sit in opposition. He ruled out CDU defectors joining any AfD-led arrangement and predicted the BSW would help put an AfD in power.
AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund described the result as “a very clear government mandate” and said he could be “perhaps the next minister-president.”
As Remix News reported, the AfD has a real opportunity to lead Saxony-Anhalt, but a number of scenarios could play out, including a coalition with BSW or even a snap election.
SPAIN
Meanwhile In Ceuta…
Saturday, Sep 05, 2026 – 07:00 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,
Viral footage out of the invaded Spanish enclave of Ceuta shows a bottlenose dolphin calf came in close to the sand at Playa del Trampolín in Ceuta this week, disoriented and still alive. A group of men who entered illegally in the July surge pulled it from the water, hoisted it like a prize, and – according to local reporting, a conservation complaint, and Telecinco – one of them bludgeoned it in the head with a stick.
An Ecoservicios worker in high-vis tried to stop the handling. Voices on the clip can be heard shouting “No! No! You can’t eat it! It’s a dolphin!” The animal was killed. Some of the men then moved off toward the breakwater with the body.
The conservation group DAUBMA took photographs, clips and social-media stills to the Guardia Civil and asked for animal-cruelty and protected-fauna charges. Alvise Pérez’s Se Acabó la Fiesta filed at Ceuta’s court on the same facts. A petition by Nadia García Gómez put it in writing: the calf was “brutally pulled from the water… handled as if it were an object and violently struck on the head.”
Spanish citizens must now share their city with savages who treat a dolphin like a piñata.
They likely have a lower IQ than the animal they pulled out of the sea and bludgeoned. They are predatory scum acting solely on chemical instinct, completely lacking in empathy, judgement or respect for anything other than their own worthless existence.
El Trampolín is not a postcard cove anymore. It is the same strip that has held thousands of arrivals since late July, when more than 70,000 people crossed from Morocco into a city of roughly 84,000.
Madrid still talks as if most of them “went home,” yet the reality is that reed shacks, rotting food and human waste have sat on that shoreline for weeks. The calf swam into that hell and couldn’t escape.
One of the men in the circle was filming the spectacle on what looks like an iPhone 17 Pro Max. The “destitute asylum seeker” kit keeps getting more expensive.
DAUBMA says the calf reached the shallows alive, was dragged out, was struck, and shows a bleeding wound under one eye while people on the tape try to wipe the blood. It called the case “extrema gravedad ambiental” and asked the environmental prosecutor to take it. Bottlenose dolphins are protected under Spanish and EU law.
A day earlier the animal-rights party PACMA shared a clip showing a migrant in Ceuta immobilising a park goose, bagging it, legs bound, a fish already in hand. A bystander intervened and the bird was dropped. The man left the scene.
PACMA issued a statement condemning “any act of violence, capture or manipulation of an animal, regardless of who commits it, their nationality, origin or administrative situation,” while adding that there is “not enough information to affirm that the incidents with animals were motivated by hunger.”
As we highlighted in mid-August carers who feed Ceuta’s street-cat colonies said sites by the desalination plant and in Huerta Téllez, Carmelitas, Príncipe, Sidi Embarek and Punta Blanca had emptied after the migrant camps spread over the same ground. Volunteers described dead cats found cut or missing half a body, and pigeons and gulls half-eaten near the settlements.https://modernity.news/2026/08/19/ceuta-invaders-are-now-eating-the-cats-and-birds-report/embed/
Ceuta Invaders Are Now EATING The Cats And Birds: Report
Mutilated cats and half-eaten pigeons found around migrant camps
Conservative influencer Eva Vlaardingerbroek points out that while everyone is rightly disgusted over the dolphin incident, European children are being raped and killed by migrants relentlessly, and it’s beginning to become little more than background noise.
“It took a dolphin calf,” she wrote. “That says something about the way our society views the value of human children.” She also pointed to the Lindsay Clancy case in the United States – a mother who strangled her three children and was immediately wrapped in feminist excuse-making. Murder a dolphin instead, Vlaardingerbroek noted, and that chorus disappears.
The situation in Ceuta remains dire. Playgrounds that used to hold Spanish children are smeared with excrement. Beaches that held families have become open latrines. Mothers cannot let their daughters outside without a male escort.https://modernity.news/2026/08/18/hellish-ceuta-mothers-weep-in-streets-rapes-force-women-to-flee-kids-parks-smeared-in-shit/embed/
Ceuta’s chief prosecutor, Silvia Rojas, told Spanish media that 23 sexual assaults – nine of them against children – had been recorded since the late-July surge, almost one case a day. Police unions speak of women and girls clinging to vans near the CETI because stepping away results in assault, and being dragged into the hills.https://modernity.news/2026/08/19/ceuta-police-claim-invaders-are-dragging-girls-into-mountains-for-gang-rapes/embed/
Ceuta POLICE Claim Invaders Are Dragging Girls Into Mountains For GANG RAPES
Officers warn of daily kidnappings and assaults near migrant camps
Locals have had enough. In late August residents tore beach camps apart, threw gear into the sea and chanted that if the men would not leave, Ceuta would throw them out. Police put a cordon between Spaniards and the shacks and used rubber bullets on the people who live there.https://modernity.news/2026/08/27/uprising-in-ceuta-locals-have-had-enough-of-migrant-invasion/embed/
The revolt did not stay inside the enclave. Marches spread across the peninsula.https://modernity.news/2026/09/03/spain-gasses-its-own-people-police-probe-migrant-soros-ngo-acid-buys-in-ceuta/embed/
UPRISING In Ceuta: Locals Have Had ENOUGH Of Migrant Invasion
Police fire rubber bullets at Spaniards as residents tear down beach camps
modernity
Spain Gasses Its Own People; Police Probe Migrant/Soros NGO ACID Buys In Ceuta
Nationwide marches, corrosive attacks on soldiers, and an NGO in the frame
Sánchez went to Congress and called it “absurd to think that the government knew and did nothing.” He boasted of returns “within 72 hours” and a €309 million emergency package. Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares has claimed “practically the entirety” of those who entered have gone back to Morocco.
Video from El Trampolín a month later still shows tents, wrecked shoreline and a city that looks sacked. Tent camps billed for 1,500 cannot accomodate 5,000 to 10,000 people.
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END
EUROPE
KOLBE….
HORRIFYING..
Europe’s Von der Leyen Wants To Put Private Bank Deposits Under State Direction
Tuesday, Sep 08, 2026 – 07:20 AM
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
How will we deal with private property in Europe in the future?
A highly complex debate follows from this question, one that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen interpreted in her own very particular way on Friday. In a speech to French business leaders at the MEDEF’s La Rencontre des Entrepreneurs de France in Paris, the former defense minister talked about using EU citizens’ bank deposits to get the ailing eurozone, the European economy, back on its feet.
An unmistakable message: In the view of the EU’s chief Eurocrat, private property as a protective wall shielding citizens from an overreaching state has served its purpose as a pillar of civilization.
Central planning, subsidy madness – this is Brussels under the magnifying glass.
Certainly: In the face of towering government debt and capital flight from the old continent, in whose wake thousands of patents and tens of thousands of highly qualified professionals are being swept away, citizens’ wealth is bound to awaken political appetites. A ruthless expropriation or the decreed redirection of cash, as the finest bureaucratic German puts it, is supposed to solve the problems Brussels itself has caused through its stubborn climate policy, its overregulation and its continuing insanity of interventionism.
Von der Leyen was explicit before the business leaders: Europe has savings, she said, but unfortunately those savings are sitting on the sidelines. Ten trillion euros are sitting as cash savings in the hands of private households in bank accounts, lectures von der Leyen in the manner of a classic central planner who can no longer take her eyes off citizens’ wealth. The European economy must now put this capital to work for its companies, the chief bureaucrat decreed.
None of this merely sounds like Erich Honecker. Von der Leyen is increasingly turning into a socialist sister in spirit to this disastrous regime.
Von der Leyen is following the path of the German chancellor. Friedrich Merz, too, discovered the cash holdings of Germans as political capital for himself more than a year ago – thoroughly socialist, indeed almost dictatorial, the chancellor also pointed to the possibilities opened up by what he called an activation of this money.
Ursula von der Leyen and Friedrich Merz reveal not merely an ethical and ideological abyss; they are contemplating dictatorial control over the private wealth of citizens who are still sovereign.
Almost tragically comical is the economic ignorance of these two political protagonists of an EU that is now openly turning toward an illiberal ideology.
Bank deposits are by no means useless cash. From the perspective of the banking sector, customer deposits are a central source of refinancing and liquidity, embedded in the money and credit cycle and enabling the provision of loans. Bank credit in the modern monetary system does not simply arise from passing on existing deposits. Commercial banks create new bank money through lending, although this process cannot simply be understood as a mechanical “leveraging” of existing deposits. Customer deposits thus fulfill numerous functions, from private liquidity planning and cash holdings to the financing and management of banking processes.
Such a massive intervention in the highly complex and fragile liquidity and credit structure of the banking sector would not merely be a barbaric act of socialism – it would be a frontal assault on the functionality of the banking system as such.
Nevertheless, the EU will resort to massive interventions – financially, after all, they have run into a wall.
Starting in 2028, repayment of the €800 billion Eurobond “NextGenerationEU” will come due. Von der Leyen’s speech before business leaders was ostensibly directed at the private sector, but in reality it concerned the financing of the European debt club, which is now moving toward tapping every financial source that can help keep the Ponzi scheme of European credit alive – the activation of cash appears to be one of those sources.
France is caught in a debt spiral, with new borrowing amounting to 5.7% of GDP this year and a parliamentary deadlock that rules out any form of fiscal consolidation.
Germany, too, will post new borrowing of more than 5 percent next year if the municipal deficit, the special funds and the social insurance funds are included – making common financing through Eurobonds, the consolidation of the mountain of debt under the roof of the European Commission and under the active liquidity assistance of the ECB increasingly likely.
And here the circle closes.
While capital is leaving the old continent through every remaining, every still-open channel, the financial needs of the EU’s ideological grand experiment and its nation-states are growing beyond measure.
The green subsidy machine alone destroys billions year after year. The final push over the economic cliff, however, will come from Europe’s rediscovered appetite for militarism. Military Keynesianism is not, however, an economic alternative to the free market. It is merely another fiscal grave that the political leadership is digging in its panic in these months.
The following final chapter is essentially known: Brussels will opt for massive capital controls.
The framework for this is already taking shape: In two years, the digital euro is to be introduced, initially as a pilot phase and, almost certainly at a later stage, as a monetary standard that will allow Brussels to exercise complete control over transfers abroad.
A ban on foreign bank accounts for EU citizens is also on the table and is being introduced step by step, just like the digital ID and the harsh regulation of the crypto sector. Slowly but steadily, the gates are closing.
Basically, this is how it always works in socialism: One day, the central planners will run out of other people’s money. Only then does the grinding machinery of repression by the powerful central authority begin.
END
EU POLAND/GERMANY
ROBERT H..
Poland & Germany
Poland is preparing for a possible large-scale war: citizens are being sent mobilization orders en masse, according to local media.
Bad enough that Ukraine has been used to the last man to die for neocon glory. Is Poland the next scarification?
Yesterday the Russian embassy in Berlin has stated “From this point forward, facilities in Germany that house long-range (weapons) systems (being used by Ukraine to attack Russia) will be considered legitimate targets.
Why? Because these factories are building 1700 kilometer range strike drones to ship to Ukraine!You can bet on 2 things. Russia cannot allow these drones to be used to kill civilians or targets deep in Russia. Germany, when struck as a result will attempt to declare article 5 under NATO and start a collective war with Russia. There is no guarantee that everyone will follow their lead.
Putin has repeatedly warned that if article 5 is involved, there are no winners only losers. People should understand that in any nuclear confrontation, there are no winners. It is more than doubtful that America would seriously consider coming to Europe’s aid. It certainly would fund reconstruction. Why not ?
What Europe seems to not understand is that before Russia uses nuclear missiles. It has an ample supply of Oreshnik missiles, which are being produced at a rate of over 20 per month in serial production. Each missile carries six warheads. Apart from the two demonstrations in Ukraine, one can take away that these missiles will not simply deliver a kinetic strike. Each missile is more than capable of taking out complete factories across Europe. That also goes for decision-making centers and their underground bunkers.
Europe is not prepared for a war with anybody. It has neither the scale of production, the money,or the resources or even willing manpower to fight.
War with Russia is total insanity for Europe. Russia can destroy all of Europe within less than 15 minutes leaving it to face an emboldened migrant population who will rip Europe to pieces.
Does anyone think anymore? With Expensive limited power, debt to the eyeballs, and limited access to oil does war make sense? No not unless you think you can outlast and outrun your own citizens by blaming Russia. Pushed Russia will act and this time there will be no Russian aid to come after.
Thus will Europe have to go through another rebuilding just like after WWII? After all is not all wars a banker’s feast ?
END
EUROPE/GERMANY
Europe’s Auto Bloodbath Deepens: Jaguar Land Rover To Axe 4,000 Jobs After VW Targets 50,000 More Job Cuts
Tuesday, Sep 08, 2026 – 02:45 AM
Europe’s industrial base faces yet another setback, with Bloomberg reporting that Jaguar Land Rover plans to cut 4,000 jobs over the next two years. Britain’s largest carmaker is confronting intensifying Chinese competition and adding to the broadening wave of planned and ongoing layoffs across European automakers.
The job cuts represent about 10% of Jaguar Land Rover’s global workforce and is part of a $2.3 billion savings plan, Chief Executive Officer P B Balaji said Monday. The layoffs are not expected to begin immediately.
The workforce restructuring comes as the struggling automaker faces a sharp deterioration in earnings. Revenue fell 10% in the latest quarter, while pretax profit plunged 69% to 109 million pound sterling.
On Monday, CEO P B Balaji said, “The automotive industry faces significant challenges, with technological change amidst intense competition and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.”
It’s not just a BYD Motors invasion of Europe that is pressuring Jaguar Land Rover. As the Tata-owned automaker warned, pressures are developing from several directions. Higher tariffs have complicated business in the US, its largest market. A fire at a key parts supplier and disruption from the Middle East conflict have compounded the damage caused by the cyberattack.
In recent weeks, Europe’s automotive industry has continued its death spiral, with news that Volkswagen pushed ahead with its plan to eliminate another 50,000 jobs, adding to soaring job losses across the industry.
A sustained downturn in Europe’s automotive industry raises risks across the broader industrial base. Lower vehicle output would weaken demand for steel, aluminum, glass, chemicals, semiconductors, batteries, and other components, putting pressure on supplier margins and investment. If prolonged, that weakness could trigger additional production line closures and worker losses. That spiral appears to be already underway, eroding manufacturing capabilities that also support defense production.
END
5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/USA/VS IRAN/SATURDAY
Iranian Tanker Reportedly Hit By Missiles Near Kharg Island
Saturday, Sep 05, 2026 – 09:55 AM
Iranian state media reported early Saturday that US forces had struck an oil tanker near Kharg Island. Although the US military has not confirmed the maritime incident, the attack, if verified, would mark a significant escalation near Iran’s most important crude-export terminal and increase the risk of further disruptions to Persian Gulf energy flows.
Tasnim News Agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said several missiles hit the tanker early Saturday and published images purportedly showing black smoke rising from the ship.
Kharg Island is the jugular vein of Iran’s oil economy. The deepwater terminal handles about 90% of the country’s crude exports, connecting Iran’s major onshore fields to global markets, specifically China.
Henri Patricot, CFA, a Paris-based energy equity research analyst at UBS, published Kpler data showing that crude loadings at major Iranian export terminals, including Kharg, have been significantly reduced over the course of the six-month conflict.
Weekly average crude loadings in the Middle East by port location also show a slight recovery on an ex-Iran basis across the major Gulf producers.
Average flows through Kharg have ranged from 1.5 million to 2 million barrels per day, although the data above show that those volumes collapsed to roughly 220,000 to 255,000 barrels per day in August under the US naval blockade. The island also contains massive storage facilities, pipelines, and loading berths. Any attack by US forces, whether kinetic through air-delivered munitions, or offensive cyber operations, could cripple Tehran’s largest moneymaker.
President Trump warned Friday that the US could soon attack Pickaxe Mountain, a suspected Iranian nuclear facility.
As for Hormuz flows, Goldman commodities strategist Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and her team said this week that they had to revise tanker-flow estimates sharply higher (full note available here for pro subs), suggesting that Tehran’s ability to control the strategic maritime chokepoint has been significantly degraded.
Grigsby and her team told clients on Wednesday that Gulf oil exports had recovered to between 15 million and 16 million barrels per day, roughly two-thirds of prewar levels.
However, Grigsby pointed out that visible tanker data show flows of only about 10 million barrels per day on a seven-day moving average. That 5 million-barrel-per-day gap reflects what Goldman’s energy team called the “rise of dark transits.” In other words, tankers are switching off their Automatic Identification System transponders to avoid detection by Iran.
Net hit to Persian Gulf flows of 7.9mb/d now
Polymarket odds that Tehran will lose control of Kharg Island stand at 2% by Sept. 30 and just 7% by year-end.
What the Trump administration decides to do with Kharg remains the energy market’s billion-dollar question.
END
SATURDAY
“Three For Two”: CENTCOM Destroys Iranian Tankers Near Kharg Island After IRGC Targets US Warships
Saturday, Sep 05, 2026 – 10:44 AM
Summary:
- CENTCOM Confirms Iranian Tankers Hit Near Kharg Island
- Iranian Tanker Reportedly Hit By Missiles Near Kharg Island
CENTCOM Confirms Strikes
US Central Command confirmed on X that US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched ballistic missiles toward two US Navy warships.
CENTCOM provided details:
Following Iran’s failed attacks, CENTCOM permanently disabled the IRGC crude oil carriers M/T Downy off the coast of Kharg Island and M/T Stark 1 near Jask. American forces also completely destroyed the unladen crude oil carrier M/T Kylo (also known as the “Noxen”) in the Gulf of Oman, striking the vessel in multiple critical locations to render it inoperable after the crew was directed to abandon ship.
The three Iranian crude oil tankers are part of a multibillion-dollar shadow network that funds the IRGC and its regional proxies. Iran has no means by which to defend them.
CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper stated:
Let the message to the IRGC be clear: If you shoot at two of our ships, we will impose an even higher economic cost —taking out three of yours.
We will not hesitate to defend American forces, and if necessary, destroy Iran’s limited and exposed oil fleet.
The key question heading into Sunday evening is how Brent crude futures will price the US strikes on Iranian tankers near Kharg Island.
Kharg Island is the jugular vein of Iran’s oil economy. The deepwater terminal handles about 90% of the country’s crude exports, connecting Iran’s major onshore fields to global markets, specifically China.
END
SATURDAY
Iran: Several Ballistic Missiles Fired At US Aircraft Carrier, Navy Destroyer
Saturday, Sep 05, 2026 – 07:50 PM
Summary:
- Iran says it has attacked 3 ‘US-linked’ along with 3 American ships in the Hormuz Strait
- State media released footage of foreign vessels under attack in “response” to US aggression
- CENTCOM Confirms Iranian Tankers Hit Near Kharg Island
- Iranian Tanker Reportedly Hit By Missiles Near Kharg Island
* * *
Iran Unleashes Large Drone Swarm Attacks on Several Ships
Iran state media is releasing footage of its own Saturday action against US assets in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, as part of the fresh weekend tit-for-tat fighting with the United States. Per state PressTV and IRIB, it seems Tehran is saying it has targeted six vessels:
- The IRGC targets three US-related vessels and three oil tankers in the Hormuz Strait, warning all vessels against choosing unauthorized routes to transit Hormuz.
- In response to US attacks on three Iranian tankers, Iran has targeted three vessels in the unauthorized route of the Strait of Hormuz, along with three American ships.
Al Jazeera Breaking:
BREAKING: Iran says several ballistic missiles fired at US aircraft carrier, Navy destroyer
The IRGC Navy is claiming a “response” to US aggression: “This morning, the terrorist and aggressor US military, in a brutal act born of desperation from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, attacked three oil tankers belonging to the Islamic Republic, causing damage,” the force said in a statement on Saturday. In response, it continues: “the fighters of the IRGC Navy targeted three oil tankers traveling along an unauthorized route through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as three vessels affiliated with the child-killing United States, in other areas.”
IRAN SHOWS NEVER-BEFORE-SEEN STRIKES on ‘VIOLATING’ vessels in Hormuz — Tasnim
The overnight into early Sunday hours are going to be interesting, awaiting more possible Pentagon action, even as the Department of War says this is not a “war”.
CENTCOM Confirms Strikes
US Central Command confirmed on X that US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched ballistic missiles toward two US Navy warships.
CENTCOM provided details:
Following Iran’s failed attacks, CENTCOM permanently disabled the IRGC crude oil carriers M/T Downy off the coast of Kharg Island and M/T Stark 1 near Jask. American forces also completely destroyed the unladen crude oil carrier M/T Kylo (also known as the “Noxen”) in the Gulf of Oman, striking the vessel in multiple critical locations to render it inoperable after the crew was directed to abandon ship.
The three Iranian crude oil tankers are part of a multibillion-dollar shadow network that funds the IRGC and its regional proxies. Iran has no means by which to defend them.
CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper stated:
Let the message to the IRGC be clear: If you shoot at two of our ships, we will impose an even higher economic cost —taking out three of yours.
We will not hesitate to defend American forces, and if necessary, destroy Iran’s limited and exposed oil fleet.
The key question heading into Sunday evening is how Brent crude futures will price the US strikes on Iranian tankers near Kharg Island.
END
SUNDAY
Iran Vows ‘Faster, More Painful’ Response To US Attacks After Weekend Sea Battle
Sunday, Sep 06, 2026 – 12:40 PM
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on Sunday announced a heightened military posture in the war with the US, saying that new attacks on the country will “meet a faster, heavier and more painful response.“
“If they haven’t understood by now, they should understand before it’s too late that the rules of the game have changed and that from now on, any violation of Iran’s interests and security will receive a ‘faster, heavier, and more painful’ response,” Ghalibaf said in a post on Telegram. He has warned that Iranian retaliation will no longer be “proportionate”.
Ghalibaf also conceded that Iran faces severe economic pressures amid US-led sweeping sanctions and the campaign of ‘strangulation’ and isolation efforts.
“Severe fluctuations in the exchange rate, inflation, unemployment, and market management are fundamental challenges that have put serious pressure on people’s livelihoods,” Ghalibaf said.
He also laid out that the Islamic Republic must aim to bolster domestic production and use technology to “devise short-term and permanent solutions.” Iran’s military has all along touted that it never stopped manufacturing missiles and drones, even as US-Israeli bombs decimated many industrial sites.
Ghalibaf’s words come a day after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it attacked three American military ships and three oil tankers using an “unauthorized” route in the Strait of Hormuz. Also, in the latest:
Iran said Sunday it struck an unmanned U.S. vessel trying to enter the Strait of Hormuz, a claim that the U.S. military dismissed as a “total lie.”
The US military earlier on Saturday had struck three Iranian oil tankers, M/T Downy, M/T Stark 1, and M/T Kylo – in a major first of the conflict (that is, a US attack on civilian vessels).
The Iranian parliament speaker continues to try and troll Trump and Bessent on X:
Washington is meanwhile touting more and more energy flow through the Strait of Hormuz, while also appealing for other nations to help:
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright says on average nine million barrels of oil a day are getting through the Strait of Hormuz that should help relieve pressure on rising energy prices.
Wright told CNN with oil also moving through pipelines in the region, “we’re probably two-thirds or more of pre-conflict flows”.
Those flows, however, depend on the presence of the US Navy to help escort tankers and provide some protection against possible Iranian attacks. Wright said he expected other countries will eventually support the Navy’s efforts.
But events like this weekend are likely going to continue to escalate the crisis. “There’s going to be more clashes between the Iranians and the Americans. There can be miscalculations. There can be more civilian casualties” especially on the Iranian side, Sina Azodi, the director of the Middle East studies program at George Washington University, has explained.
The “small potatoes” conflict according to the Commander-in-Chief…
“The [US] secretary of defense can send more troops to the region, but I don’t think the Iranians are going to back down. They’re going to resist that blockade and impose further costs on the United States,” the analyst said.
Indeed every escalation step ordered by Washington has typically resulted in the Iranians ‘answering’ with significant missile and drone attacks on US bases in the Gulf, and as far away as Jordan. Some analysts are calling this a successful ‘debasification’ campaign that has existed since the war’s start.
END
IRAN/SOUTH KOREA/SUNDAY
Iran Threatens South Korean Assets If Seoul Joins Hormuz Mission
Sunday, Sep 06, 2026 – 09:20 PM
Iranian academic Mohammad Marandi has warned that Tehran would consider South Korea an enemy and could strike its economic and military interests across the Persian Gulf if Seoul joins the US-led war on Iran.
Speaking on Al Mayadeen’s The Grand Standoff, Marandi said South Korea’s involvement in efforts to secure freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz would expose its interests in the region to Iranian retaliation.
“If the South Koreans participate in this war against Iran, Iran will see it as the enemy,” Marandi said, adding that Tehran would seek to “destroy whatever assets South Korea has in this region”.
Those targets would not necessarily be military installations, he said, and Iranian strikes could include South Korean assets in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
“So the Koreans are very vulnerable to Iran,” said Marandi. “Iran can hurt them very badly.”
His comments came as South Korea considers potential naval contributions to efforts to restore freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global energy supplies.Various options are under consideration, but no decision has been mad e, South Korea’s presidential office said on Friday.
The office said general options had been discussed on possible military contributions, including combat participation, noncombat roles and search operations, Al Jazeera reported. “Please be advised that nothing has been decided yet concerning actual contributions,” the presidential office said.
Seoul was considering sending military assets to the region and seeking approval from parliament, South Korean media reported. Options under consideration included a P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft and a naval logistics support ship, a report by The Guardian said.
South Korean broadcasters also reported that a navy explosive ordnance disposal team could be included. Any new deployment of military personnel would have to be reviewed by South Korea’s National Security Council, passed by a resolution of the cabinet and approved by the National Assembly, the presidential office said.
The debate comes as South Korea faces mounting pressure from Washington to join efforts around the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump has blasted Seoul for not backing the US war on Iran and tied the spat to wider strains in the US-South Korea alliance. South Korea also depends heavily on the waterway for its energy supplies.
Last year, the country depended on shipments traversing Hormuz for 61 percent of its crude oil imports and 54 percent of its naphtha imports.
Marandi said the potential contribution was not likely to be a game-changer in the conflict and said South Korea had little military capability to contribute to the US. “What is a ship or two from South Korea going to do? It’s foolish,” he said.
But he warned that any participation could have economic implications far beyond military assets. “Iran will not only target the South Korean military assets, but Iran could easily destroy their economic assets across the Persian Gulf region,” Marandi said.
Under pressure from Washington, South Korea expanded the deployment of an anti-piracy naval unit from Somalia to waters around the Strait of Hormuz in 2019.
However, South Korea’s defense minister said in March that any substantially different mission in the strait would require parliamentary consent.
END
ISRAEL/USA/IRAN MONDAY
Iran To Draw New “Restricted Zone” In Hormuz As Saudi Aramco Facility Hit Again, Oil Climbs
Monday, Sep 07, 2026 – 01:00 PM
At a moment US officials have been boasting of more and more oil tankers making it through the Strait of Hormuz under US naval protection and support, Iran has previewed a new ‘restricted zone’ in the Gulf, which it says will be announced in the coming days.
The announcement is expected to include maps of the new shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, likely to begin from where the US blockade of Iran starts and extending into areas of the Gulf, according to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council on Sunday.
“The maps of a new international corridor which lies in Iranian and Omani waters and in which Iran will have management have been agreed and should be signed in the coming days,” national security council official Mohsen Rezaei said.
“We will only commit to the Strait of Hormuz being open when they (the Americans) stop the sabotage, threats and attacks on Iran,“ he added. Per a Monday Bloomberg note:
Oil advances, with Brent futures trading above $97 a barrel, after US attacks on Iranian tankers and Tehran’s threat of a new restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz. European natural gas prices surge. Meanwhile, Ukraine is resigned to Russia’s war dragging on through another tough winter.
Also, in a latest Monday warning, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has put US energy firms on notice, saying they could be targeted if Iranian tankers continue to be attacked (following precisely a rare US airstrike on an Iranian civilian tanker).
According to Ghalibaf’s words on X: “It’s simple: the oil and gas production chain here is sprawling, accessible, and exposed. American oil and gas companies across these waters and facilities share that exposure. Strike our assets and you get struck. We’ve already proven it. Ask the bases that are no longer viable.”
Brent reaches high since July 23
The top Iranian negotiator also said in a weekend speech, “The Americans must have understood that the era of proportionate responses has come to an end,” adding that “any aggression against Iran’s interests and security will receive a faster, more intense and more painful response.”
Across the Gulf, the UAE is voicing its frustration, vowing to establish alternative energy routes:
The United Arab Emirates is building alternative routes for its energy exports and trade to ensure they are not “held hostage” by the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said on Monday.
“Our energy exports will not be held hostage, nor will our trade and economic activity,” Gargash said before the Hili Forum in Abu Dhabi.
Meanwhile, not helping rising energy prices is fresh reporting out of Saudi Arabia of key oil facilities hit, likely by more Houthi attacks from neighboring Yemen.
“Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities in the Saudi Arabian city of Jizan have been attacked only a month after a separate strike temporarily knocked out some production at its refinery,” Financial Times reports. “The company’s oil infrastructure was hit on Monday and the damage was being assessed, said two people with knowledge of the matter.”
Tehran continues to see itself as having the ability to leverage economic blowback against Washington…
Jizan provides a convenient targeting opportunity for the Houthis given its closeness to the Yemeni border as a significant Saudi industrial city. The Iran-linked group has not immediately claimed responsibility for any fresh attacks on the kingdom, however.
Bloomberg reports Monday, “The latest attack didn’t cause major damage, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing confidential matters. The 400,000 barrel-a-day refinery remains shut following a strike in July, one of them said.”
The Houthis have sought to impose a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea ports since July – and this has been coupled by sporadic major drone and missile attacks on Saudi oil sites. Ansar Allah is no doubt working in tandem with Tehran keep up the pressure on global energy markets.
Weekend & Overnight Developments
- US launched strikes against three Iranian crude oil tankers on Saturday, which destroyed one, in retaliation for the IRGC targeting US Navy warships with ballistic missiles.
- Iran’s navy said it targeted three oil tankers that were travelling through unauthorised routes in the Strait of Hormuz and three additional US vessels in other areas.
- US President Trump said on Friday that they do intermittent strikes in Iran and that the Iran issue is a military conflict, while he added that they may hit Pickaxe Mountain very soon. Trump warned that if anything goes badly with Iran, they may hit them hard and have essentially taken over Iran. He also claimed there have been no shootings for days and there are no mines in the Strait.
- US Energy Secretary Wright said a nuclear deal with Iran may not be achievable in the near term and military action may be needed to address threats from Iran, according to ABC News.
- Iran’s top security official Rezaei said Iran and Oman will sign agreed Strait of Hormuz passage maps in the coming days and that Iran will commit to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open when the US neither threatens Iran nor attacks it. Rezaei also stated that they will announce in the coming days and weeks a restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz that starts from the US Navy’s blockade line and extends through the strait into the Persian Gulf, and any ship identified entering this zone with the intention of passing through the strait will be added to the sanctions list. Furthermore, he said that Iran tested an Iranian anti-ship missile above a US warship for the first time and claimed the missile created ‘hell’ for the Americans ‘and they fled’.
- Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf warned that Iran’s response to any attack against its interests and security would be faster, heavier and more painful.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the US-led war is disrupting global oil trade and costs, while it added that US aggression is causing instability in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Israeli military announced that it struck southern Lebanon after Hezbollah launched drones towards Israeli soldiers in the security zone. Israel’s army also issued an evacuation warning to residents of a building in Deir Zahrani, southern Lebanon.
- Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich said PM Netanyahu ordered the evacuation of certain settlement outposts in the West Bank. It was separately reported that Israel conducted an airstrike on eastern Gaza City with four missiles.
- Joint statement by UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt Foreign Ministers strongly condemned statements made by Israel’s National Security Minister Ben-Gvir and Defence Minister Katz regarding the displacement of Palestinians.
- Yemeni armed forces said they thwarted an attempt by Houthis to infiltrate the Dabab front, while they announced that warplanes struck Houthi positions in Balhaf and south of Hodeidah.
ISRAEL TBN
END
END
HOUTHIS/SAUDI ARABIA
Houthis Pummel Southwest Saudi Arabia With Ballistic Missiles, As Yemen Air & Ground War Erupts
Tuesday, Sep 08, 2026 – 09:25 AM
The heaviest fighting since the Iran war began is taking place in Yemen currently, also involving significant overnight attacks on Saudi energy and military sites by the Houthis.
The Houthis have since unveiled new operations, in a Tuesday statement saying the Iran-aligned group is targeting critical Saudi oil and military infrastructure. Widely circulating local videos suggest the attacks on multiple sites were in some case simultaneous and overwhelming.
“In response to this brutal aggression and in confronting comprehensive escalation with comprehensive escalation, the YAF carried out a large-scale … operation, targeting Aramco facilities in Abha and Najran, the Economic City, Aramco in Jizan, and Khamis Mushait Air Base, using dozens of ballistic missiles and drones,” said the Houthi statement.
“The strikes, by God’s grace, were accurate and direct and caused significant damage to those facilities,” it added.
The kingdom’s Energy Ministry has indeed acknowledged fires and operations stoppages at several sites as a result, as well as damage and injured personnel.
“Several energy sector facilities and installations in the southern region of the kingdom were targeted this morning,” the energy ministry stated.
“The attacks caused fires at several locations, leading to a temporary halt in some operations. Specialized field teams have begun containing the fires, securing the sites, and assessing the damage,” the statement said. Aramco sites have been targeted on multiple occasions this summer, resulting in operations halts, particularly at key sites near the Yemeni border. Damage is still being assessed at the Aramco Jisan oil facilities, which were targeted yet again.
Also military and supply missions were hit, with the Houthi statement also indicating the destruction of Saudi military equipment and convoys of Saudi-backed forces of the internationally-recognized government.
For anyone putting a lot of faith in those pipelines that bypass Hormuz…
“Arms trucks coming from Saudi Arabia were targeted and caught fire at the Al-Wadiah military camp,” the Houthis stated.
In response later on Tuesday, Saudi airstrikes have reportedly resumed on Yemen in the governorates of Al-Jawf, Al-Bayda, Ma’rib, Taiz, and Al-Hudaydah. Already the death toll is mounting from these renewed strikes:
Houthi rebels in Yemen accused Saudi Arabia of striking a prison on Monday in the country’s north, killing seven, including a child, as tensions escalate between the Iran-backed group and Saudi-backed Yemeni forces.
The strike on the Central Corrective Facility in the strategic city of Hazm in Jawf province also wounded at least seven people, including a woman, said Anees al-Asbahi, a spokesman for the Houthi-run health ministry.
The prison’s warden told the Houthi al-Masirah news channel 35 prisoners and a woman who was visiting her husband were trapped under the rubble.
The Saudi side has meanwhile said that dozens were injured in the Houthi attacks. Major General Turki Al-Maliki, spokesman for the Saudi-led Coalition Forces, blasted the new Houthi aggression as “dangerous” and “senseless” – and announced that at lest 73 people have been wounded, including women and children.
Both sides are now vowing escalation:
Houthi military spokesperson Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree accused Saudi Arabia of launching airstrikes and “committing massacres” in Jawf, as well as deploying a reconnaissance drone and supplying mercenaries with various weaponry.
“The ongoing Saudi aggression against Yemen will not go unanswered or unpunished,” he said.
The aerial war is additionally heating up: “Saree said later Monday that Houthi forces downed a total of four reconnaissance drones belonging to Saudi Arabia over the past 24 hours, including one that was spotted Monday morning in Bayda province,” as cited in The Associated Press.
Oil prices on world markets continue to steadily inch higher, rising more than 1% as a result of Tuesday’s Saudi-Yemen escalation.
The Saudi coalition says it aims to liberate the country’s capital of Sanaa from the Iran-backed rebels. “The decision has been made to retake Sana’a. There are surprises we will not reveal now,” the Deputy Defense Minister Major General Samir Al-Sabri told state-run Yemen TV.
The Yemeni army further released a statement saying that “From today, we declare that our goal is clear and unequivocal: to liberate Yemen from the grip of the terrorist Houthi militias and restore Sana’a as a capital for all Yemenis.“
This appears a return to the kind of bull-blown war in Yemen which marked the latter half of the last decade. But this time it’s more complicated and dangerous in terms of regional spillover, given it comes in the context of the Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and Houthi efforts to close Red Sea shipping to the Saudis, Israelis, and their allies.
Below are more developments via Al Jazeera:
- Saudi Arabia has carried out new attacks in Yemen against al-Jubah district in Marib, in the Houthi-controlled part of the country, according to a news report in Houthi-run media.
- Forces loyal to Yemen’s internationally recognised government have launched a counteroffensive against the Houthi rebels, with officials saying they aim to recapture the capital Sanaa from the Iran-backed group.
- The Houthis say they repelled an offensive in al-Jawf, and at least seven people were killed in an air strike on a prison in the town of al-Hazm, pledging that the “aggression will not go unpunished”.
- Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud has described Yemen’s Houthi rebels as “selfish” for putting their own interests above the welfare of the country’s people. “The Houthis choose to prioritise their narrow interests over the interests of Yemen and resort to violence,” he said at a news conference in the Russian capital.
- Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has told his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, in Moscow that Russia is ready to help resolve the spiralling situation in the Middle East.
Saudi-led forces in Yemen bombed Al-Jawf Central Prison:
More Overnight News
via Newsquawk
- US President Trump posted, “Oil prices will drop precipitously, like everything else is dropping (but more!), when we WIN the war with Iran. Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars a gallon. It will all happen quickly, and Iran will never have a Nuclear Weapon. MAGA!”
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran has always opposed war but will continue to resist aggression with full force until the aggressors are made to regret their actions.
- Iran’s top national security official Rezaei said Washington has received a clear warning from Iran’s new missiles and that economic warfare will be met with a maritime exclusion zone across the Persian Gulf to the blockade perimeter, while he added that the operational posture toward US warships and bases has been fundamentally recalibrated.
- Tasnim analysis suggests that commentary from Iranian official Rezaei signals that Iran is considering expanding the geographic scope of its maritime confrontation into the northern Indian Ocean.
- Saudi Energy Minister said a number of energy facilities and utilities were hit and that some operations have been temporarily halted. This was later confirmed by the Houthis, in which they added that they struck the Khamis Mushait Air Base in retaliation to recent Saudi airstrikes. The group warned that further attacks on Yemen will be met with broader strikes on Saudi.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Ukraine Pushes Congress For Russia Sanctions Before Election Recess
Saturday, Sep 05, 2026 – 08:10 AM
Authored by RFE/RL staff via OilPrice.com,
Ukraine’s top sanctions official says he remains optimistic about prospects for a sweeping Russia sanctions bill in the US Congress despite growing uncertainty over when the House of Representatives will take it up, as lawmakers face a sharply shortened legislative calendar ahead of the November elections.
Vladyslav Vlasiuk, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s sanctions commissioner, spent this week in Washington meeting lawmakers and congressional staff as Kyiv presses Congress to advance the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026.
The legislation passed the Senate on August 7 by an overwhelming 86-11 vote, reflecting rare bipartisan agreement. The bill would give the president additional authority to impose punitive tariffs on countries that continue buying Russian fossil fuels. It also includes provisions targeting Iran, which Vlasiuk said is engaged in close military-industrial cooperation with Moscow.
But the measure faces a more complicated path in the House, where some Democrats have expressed reservations about provisions that would give President Donald Trump additional authority to impose tariffs.
Republican leaders announced on September 3 that the final two weeks of the pre-election House session are canceled, severely curtailing what had been a full legislative calendar for September.
House members are expected to leave Washington no later than September 17 and not return until mid-November. The House will reconvene for one additional week of business after next week’s Labor Day break.
The compressed calendar has increased pressure on supporters of the sanctions legislation. Senior Republican aides told RFE/RL that the bill remains a GOP priority, provided Democrats “get their ducks in a row.”
Democratic aides, in response to RFE/RL inquiries, expressed cautious optimism about the measure, underscoring uncertainty over whether Speaker Mike Johnson will bring it to the floor.
Vlasiuk: ‘Good Chance’
Vlasiuk said he held roughly 20 meetings with lawmakers and congressional staff during his Washington visit, including discussions with members of both parties.
He said the Ukrainian delegation encountered broad support for increasing pressure on Russia and that no lawmaker told him outright that they would oppose the legislation.
“Everyone agreed that it was necessary to increase pressure on Russia,” Vlasiuk said at a briefing at the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington. “No one said that he definitely would not support this bill.”
He described Ukraine as “quite optimistic” about the level of support for the legislation, including among Democrats.
One potentially important route would be for the House to consider the bill under suspension of the rules, a fast-track procedure generally used for legislation expected to command broad support. Vlasiuk said that was among the realistic scenarios for moving the bill forward.
“I think that there is really good chance that this bill will be brought onto the floor,” he said.
Vlasiuk has previously identified the week after next as Kyiv’s preferred window for a House vote. With the House calendar now compressed, that period could provide one of the last opportunities for a vote before lawmakers leave Washington.
Asked by RFE/RL whether the momentum surrounding the bill was still there, Vlasiuk pointed to what he characterized as continued bipartisan backing for Ukraine.
“There is a lot of support for Ukraine on the Hill,” he said, adding that Kyiv has been “very vocal” in stressing the urgency of passing the bill. “At the same time, well, I mean, let’s wait and see,” Vlasiuk said.
Democrats Wary Of Trump Powers
The principal obstacle is not broad disagreement over confronting Russia, according to Thomas Melia, a former senior State Department official and Senate Foreign Relations Committee deputy staff director who is currently with the Free Russia Foundation.
In an interview with RFE/RL, Melia explained that Democratic leaders have several reasons for hesitating. One is that the legislation is not strictly necessary for the administration to impose sanctions, he said. Trump already possesses significant authority to sanction Russian individuals and entities.
The bill’s principal value, in Melia’s assessment, is therefore partly political and symbolic: Its bipartisan backing would demonstrate congressional resolve to increase pressure on Moscow.
But Melia said the House Democratic leadership was not sufficiently involved in negotiating the version that ultimately emerged from the Senate.
That concern is particularly relevant to Representative Gregory Meeks of New York, the senior Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, who has expressed general support for tougher pressure on Russia but has raised concerns about provisions of the legislation.
There is also a substantive concern: The final version of the legislation gives the president additional tariff authority. Melia said that has created hesitation among Democrats who are wary of giving Trump another instrument that could be used broadly against US trading partners.
Melia also emphasized another change from the bill’s earlier form: The final version makes the sanctions optional rather than mandatory.
That distinction matters, he said, because the original legislation’s political force came in part from its mandatory sanctions provisions and overwhelming bipartisan support in the Senate.
After the death of Senator Lindsey Graham, the administration backed a version of the legislation but sought changes that made sanctions nonmandatory and added tariff authority, Melia said.
The result, in his view, is a weaker measure than the original. Melia said the final version nevertheless retains substantial political significance because of the broad bipartisan support that surrounded the tougher proposal.
Kyiv Backs Tariffs
Vlasiuk defended the tariff provisions, arguing that they could make sanctions substantially more effective. “This is a powerful instrument which will allow to amplify the effect of the sanctions,” he said.
He argued that tariffs and sanctions can have similar economic effects but differ in their ability to be circumvented.
“Sanctions can be adapted, sanctions can be evaded, tariffs cannot be adapted or evaded,” Vlasiuk said.
He also rejected concerns that countries could be arbitrarily targeted under the bill, saying the legislation establishes criteria based on purchases of Russian fossil fuels.
In particular, he pointed to China and India, which Ukraine considers central to Russia’s continued ability to sell its energy exports.
Vlasiuk said the pressure could represent “a huge blow” to Russia’s ability to finance its war against Ukraine.
Ukraine also supports the bill’s inclusion of Iran, he said, citing Tehran’s close military cooperation with Moscow.
“Everyone understands how close cooperation is between the military-industrial complex of these countries,” Vlasiuk said. “Therefore, Iran is very well-deserved.”
House Vote Window Narrows
The political stakes are heightened by the House’s decision to cancel its final two weeks of pre-election legislative work.
The chamber is expected to depart Washington no later than September 17, although Republican leaders have said members could be recalled if the Senate advances a party-line budget reconciliation package. That scenario is not currently expected.
Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, a Republican who has supported the sanctions effort, described the lack of congressional action as a serious failure.
“This is a real shame. It passed 86-11 in the Senate,” Bacon said. “Congressional inaction on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and on Putin’s crimes is a real failure. The history books will not be kind.”
For Kyiv, the urgency is not simply legislative.
Vlasiuk warned that Ukraine faces another difficult winter after months of Russian missile and drone attacks. He said 160 people had been killed in missile and drone strikes in recent months.
“We have to increase the pressure over Russia to make them change their plans, to make them really negotiate,” he said.
He argued that passing the sanctions bill now would have two effects: It could eventually increase economic pressure on Russia, while immediately sending a political signal to both Ukraine and the Russian government.
There is, he said, an element of inertia in sanctions policy. Even after legislation passes, implementing measures can take days, and producing a significant effect on Russia’s economy can take weeks.
“But at the same time, the very fact of passing this sanction bill,” Vlasiuk said, would send a “strong signal of support to Ukrainian people” and a “really strong signal to Russian government.”
END
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
US Envoys Witkoff, Kushner Land In Moscow For Peace Talks As Putin Halts Attacks On Kiev
Saturday, Sep 05, 2026 – 11:05 AM
Roughly 11 days after CIA Director John Ratcliffe unexpectedly traveled to Moscow and reportedly floated a trilateral summit involving President Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Moscow on Saturday morning.
“Dmitriev was deep in conversation with Witkoff and Kushner as they stepped onto Russian soil for key Ukraine talks,” Russian media outlet RT wrote on X, accompanying the post with footage of the US delegation’s arrival.
Russian outlet Sputnik reported that Putin had ordered a three-day pause in strikes on Kiev just as Witkoff and Kushner arrived in Russia for peace talks.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated:
- The pause in strikes on Kyiv is linked to preparations for and the holding of meetings with American negotiators there.
- The Russian president will meet US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner at the Kremlin later Saturday.
Witkoff and Kushner are scheduled to meet Putin before traveling to Kyiv on Sunday, marking their first visit to Ukraine since the war began.
Bloomberg reports that expectations for a breakthrough peace deal to end the war remain low.
The Kremlin said there was “no talk of new ideas,” while describing Moscow’s negotiating position as “unshakeable.” Russia continues to demand that Kiev surrender the entirety of four regions claimed by Moscow and abandon its NATO ambitions, conditions that Kiev rejects.
The diplomatic push comes as intensifying attacks by both sides around the Black Sea raise the risk of a global food crisis next year. Meanwhile, Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, combined with disrupted Persian Gulf flows, are pushing the global refined-products market toward crisis, creating twin food and energy risks.
The visit merely suggests an intensifying Trump administration campaign to reopen high-level negotiating channels ahead of the midterm elections in the US and end the Russia-Ukraine war after more than four years of costly fighting.
END
RUSSIA/GERMANY (UKRAINE)
Lavrov Says ‘Start Of Real War’ Emerging As Russia Deepens Diplomatic Freeze With Germany
Tuesday, Sep 08, 2026 – 10:45 AM
More tit-for-tat between Russia and Germany amid a deepening diplomatic freeze related to the Ukraine war: the Kremlin announced on Monday that it is closing Germany’s consulate in St. Petersburg, with operations ordered to by suspended by September 18.
“It was the German authorities who, once again, provoked a new round of escalation in bilateral relations,” the Foreign Ministry stated, charging that Berlin “bears full and complete responsibility” for the consequences.
A prominent German culture center which has long operated on Russian territory, the Goethe-Institut, is also getting the boot across all branches.
All of this is a mirror image of the German government’s earlier move to shutter the Russian consulate in Bonn and Russia’s cultural center in Berlin, also as the EU blamed Russia as a “state sponsor of terrorism”.
The harsh words and spiraling diplomatic crisis stems from the drone attack incidents at Germany’s Leipzign Airport last month. There were at least two reported incidents, possibly a third. On the night of August 4, an explosives-laden drone was found on the tarmac near a Ukrainian cargo plane.
This prompted an urgent airport shutdown, as authorities believes saboteurs were seeking to blow up the plane. On the following day there was another alleged incident, per German media and officials:
Authorities discovered a drone fitted with explosives and a detonation mechanism on the evening of August 4 in the security area of Leipzig/Halle Airport between Ukrainian cargo aircraft and believe a second drone may have collided with a DHL aircraft nearby.
Last week, German media reported a third drone, also loaded with explosives, had also been discovered at the airport.
German federal prosecutors described the incident as a “serious attack on Germany’s transport and logistics infrastructure.”
Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul had said after initial investigations, “The means used — such as the drone configuration, components, explosives and detonation systems — are known to us from other hybrid operations by Russia and its war against Ukraine.”
The strongest words out of Moscow have come from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov this weekend. While the US delegation of Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were in Russia for a 3-hour meeting with President Putin, he said that a “real war” between Russia and the West is emerging.
He asserted to a Russian state TV reporter: “This is, by and large, the start of a real war. They expelled the consulate general from Bonn. They’re closing the Russian House in Berlin. I remember that before the start of the Second World War… They want war again.”
Added to this is that Western powers are assisting Ukraine with intelligence to help with its long-range drone strikes against Russia, often against oil refineries very far from the front lines, and even more frequently targeting Moscow of late. And in turn, Russia has been ratcheting its own major missile strikes on the Ukrainian capital and other cities, taking aim at ‘decision-making centers’ too. Zelensky has sought to ‘bring to war to Russia’ – but is really risking very severe escalation that might bring NATO powers into more direct war with Russian forces.
END
RUSSIA/INDIA
Russia Vows To Keep Selling Oil to India Despite US Tariff Threat
Tuesday, Sep 08, 2026 – 11:45 AM
Submitted by Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com
Russia will remain a key crude oil supplier to India, Russia’s Ambassador to India, Denis Alipov, said in an interview with Asian News International, in which he also criticized the planned U.S. legislation to slap tariffs on countries importing Russian oil.
Russia has become India’s single-biggest oil supplier in recent years, after the U.S., the UK, and the EU banned Russian oil imports and moved to increase sanction pressure on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine.
U.S. Congress is trying to pass a “bill from hell” against Russia, sponsored by late Senator Lindsey Graham. The bill that proposes to give President Donald Trump authority to impose 100% tariffs on the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas passed the Senate 86-11, but appears deadlocked in the House, amid disagreements among Republicans and concerns among Democrats that President Trump would have new authority to slap tariffs.
It’s unlikely that the bill passes in the House before the mid-term elections in November, analysts say.
Amid this background, Russia remains and will remain a key oil supplier to India, Moscow’s envoy to the world’s third-largest crude importer said.
“We would be ready to supply as much oil as India needs. Unfortunately, those who impose sanctions and tariffs have taken the path of pressure tactics instead of honest cooperation, which prevents those countries from offering a better deal to India in oil than us,” Alipov told ANI.
“The world will not cope if Russian oil is excluded. The energy markets cannot afford that. Russian oil will stay in the market for India and other countries. We are interested in supplying oil to India. India is interested in buying that oil,” the Ambassador said.
Meanwhile, India’s crude oil imports from Russia are estimated to have eased in August from July’s record high, as Ukrainian attacks on Russian export infrastructure and competition from China for Russia’s barrels have dented Indian intake of Moscow’s oil.
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
COVID VACCINE INJURIES: MARK CRISPIN MILLER
Gladys Knight disoriented onstage; Keith Olbermann has heart surgery; Busy Philipps has “rare” brain tumor; reality TV’s Charlie Kawas has testicular cancer; influencer Dannah Eve has thyroid cancer
Tampa City Council’s Lynn Hurtak has breast cancer; TU: comic Cem Yilmaz has “major” heart attack; NZ: MP Mark Cameron, crippled by “health issues,” gives valedictory speech; more
| Mark Crispin MillerSep 6 |  |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
Celebs
UNITED STATES
Gladys Knight appears disoriented onstage; Husband says she will see doctor as tour staff raises concerns
August 28, 2026
A TMZ exclusive video package posted last night has raised new questions about Gladys Knight’s health and her continued touring schedule. The report intercuts recent concert footage showing the 82-year-old singer appearing confused onstage. She turned her back to the audience, walked toward the wings mid-song, and relied heavily on backup singers. Additionally, there were allegations from unnamed tour staff who describe the situation as “shameful” and “tragic.” Knight’s husband and manager, William McDowell, told TMZ that Knight wants to keep performing. But he said she has good days and bad days. He acknowledged they plan to see a doctor soon to evaluate whether she has dementia. However, he said no diagnosis has been made.
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In a statement provided through McDowell, Knight announced she will “ease into fewer performances” while transitioning to the next stage of her career and life. The TMZ report highlights two specific shows as particularly troubling. At the Hollywood Bowl on July 25, sources with direct knowledge told TMZ that people spoke to Knight’s team beforehand and said it was “not suitable” for her to be on stage. Once the performance began, Knight turned her back to the crowd while singing “Midnight Train to Georgia” and started walking offstage. When a backup singer reached for her arm, she shook off the attempt to keep her in place. An April date with Smokey Robinson in Las Vegas was described as even worse. Some tour staff reportedly feel Knight is showing symptoms of dementia. Allegedly, one source called it “shameful” that she is being “trotted out on stage night after night.” The footage shows Knight in a beige suit and a gray sparkly ensemble. She was facing away from the audience while backups continue singing. In one sequence, a backup singer is seen reaching toward her. Attendee accounts from Detroit, Nashville, and other stops have accumulated over recent months. Concertgoers described Knight wandering toward the curtains, zoning out, and leaving the stage for extended periods. Some audience members left early after she appeared exhausted and took multiple breaks off-stage. A Billboard review of the Hollywood Bowl show praised her remaining vocal power but stated she “barely got through this show.”
All of this arrives one year after Gladys Knight’s son, Shanga Hankerson, publicly accused McDowell of elder abuse. In August 2025, Hankerson claimed his mother showed signs of cognitive decline—zoning out on stage, forgetting lyrics, needing teleprompters rewound, and wandering from hotels in a confused state. He said McDowell had once mentioned “Sundowner’s Syndrome” and alleged isolation from family and pressure to keep touring. McDowell acknowledged Knight’s condition. “No one is ever gonna make me say, ‘My wife is well,’” he told TMZ, “but all she wants to do is sing.” He stated she has not been diagnosed with dementia but that they plan to see a doctor soon to evaluate whether she has that condition. Her voice remains strong when she is able to sing, he said.
Researcher’s note – Music legend Gladys Knight, husband urge local African-Americans to get vaccinated [sic]: “Music legend Gladys Knight and her husband are sending a message to underserved and communities of color, to get the COVID-19 vaccine [sic]. They live in the Western N.C. mountains and rolled up their sleeves just last weekend in Canton to get vaccinated [sic], urging WNC’s black community to get the shot without fear”: https://wlos.com/news/local/music-legend-gladys-knight-and-husband-urge-african-americans-to-get-vaccinated
Keith Olbermann announces return of podcast after surgery to address atrial fibrillation
August 28, 2026
Keith Olbermann is returning to his podcast after a prolonged health scare. The former ESPN and MSNBC star, who more recently has hosted a political talk show for iHeartMedia, stepped away from the podcast in May. Less than a week later, Olbermann revealed on his YouTube channel that he was suffering from atrial fibrillation and would undergo a “surgical intervention” in June. At the time, Olbermann said he hoped to return to air by the end of June. But earlier in August, Olbermann posted his first episode in months, and this week he announced the show’s full-time return on Sept. 9. “The doctors have approved,” Olbermann said in a video posted to Bluesky. “Why am I waiting another week, an extra week? Because I am going to milk my illness for all it’s worth.” Olbermann, who is 67, has carved out a lane as a fiercely anti-Trump commentator for liberal audiences. Heading into a midterm election, Olbermann figures to pick up where he left off as a voice of “The Resistance” against the Trump administration.
Researcher’s note – Keith Olbermann was among the most vicious of the “vaccine” pushers. On October, 2021, “fresh from the Booster Shot”, he said in one of his many contemptous tirades, “We have to stop coddling the morons who will not get the shot. We start by calling them what they are: they are all snowflakes and cowards and idiots and losers.”
Busy Philipps diagnosed with rare brain tumor after undergoing body scan her doctor told her she didn’t ‘need’
August 26, 2026
Busy Philipps is sharing how she was diagnosed with a rare brain tumor. During a recent interview with People magazine, the 47-year-old “Cougar Town” actress shared the terrifying moment her doctor told her she had a brain tumor, the day after her “Dawson’s Creek” co-star, James Van Der Beek, died after a battle with colorectal cancer. “Dr. Devinsky says to me, ‘I’m just going to say this to you the way I would want someone to say it to me,’” she recalled. “And that was when the wind like sort of knocked out of me, and I had to sit down. He was like, ‘I need you to breathe. I can hear that you’re not breathing.’ And I was like, ‘Just tell me what’s happening.’ And he’s like, ‘This isn’t any of those other things that they said it could be. This is a real tumor, and it’s inside your brain, and Busy, it’s got to come out. We got to take it out.’”
She was then connected with Dr. John Golfinos of NYU Langone and scheduled the five-hour surgery for March 2, during which surgeons removed a 2.6-centimeter mass from her brain.The mass was then biopsied and revealed to be a grade 2 oligodendroglioma, a rare tumor that Dr. Alexandra Miller, Philipps’s neuro-oncologist at NYU Langone told People, affects 1,100 to 1,300 people a year in the U.S. She added that “it is considered malignant, but it has the best prognosis of all of the malignant gliomas.” The diagnosis came after Philipps told her cousin’s husband, a doctor in Los Angeles, that she was interested in getting a Prenuvo scan but that her primary care doctor had told her in 2025, “You’re super healthy. We’ve done all this other blood work. We’ve done like all kinds of tests. You’re super healthy. There’s no need for you to get one.”
Charlie Kawas Landed His Own HGTV Show. Months Into Filming He Got a Diagnosis That Would Change Everything
August 27, 2026
Charlie Kawas lives and breathes construction – so much so that when he received an unexpected diagnosis in the middle of filming season 1 of his debut HGTV series, he committed to finishing several renovations while undergoing treatment. “That’s exactly me. Eat, sleep, construction,” the NYC general contractor, master craftsman and father of two, 44, tells PEOPLE. On Botched Homes, premiering Wednesday, Sept. 2, he uses his years of experience to rescue South Florida homeowners from failed renovation projects. Six months into filming, however, his dream gig was nearly derailed. On April 1, he received a piece of news that stopped even him, typically unshakable in a crisis: a testicular cancer diagnosis. Kawas had been working on a renovation project, but was experiencing back pain that kept intensifying, leading to a visit to the emergency room. After a few nights in the hospital, where he underwent various tests, he learned that the discomfort was being caused by a tumor. Although he has now completed treatment, which continued through the end of July, he’s still experiencing hair loss and missing his beard, with just a peach fuzz starting to grow back on the top of his head. He’s also still regaining his strength after experiencing significant fatigue and weight loss. “I would go from grabbing something with one hand and swinging it around because I do construction. And now it was challenging,” he says. “I’m eager to get back on the job and start swinging the hammer again.”
Influencer Dannah Eve Reveals Cancer Diagnosis at 34 After Follower Discovered ‘Incidental Finding’
August 28, 2026
Influencer Dannah Eve has been diagnosed with thyroid cancer. According to Eve, her diagnosis was “not what [she] was expecting” after experiencing a series of various health symptoms. “That diagnosis is follicular thyroid carcinoma, and those are words I’m very much still trying to wrap my head around,” the content creator stated. “The good news is that the cancer was small – the final measurement was 1.4 centimeters – and it was removed during surgery.” Eve documented her health battle via social media, revealing last month that she had undergone a thyroidectomy to remove all or part of her thyroid gland.
Jeff Browning health update: Is ultramarathon runner in coma after heart attack in France trail race?
August 26, 2026
Jeff Browning, a hugely popular American ultramarathon runner and coach, suffered a heart attack during a trail running race in Chamonix, France, on Monday, August 24. Browning, 55, was [sic?] a veteran trail runner. An update was posted on his social media page stating that Jeff Browning suffered a heart attack and was airlifted to a hospital. He is “under medical care,” they added. According to an update on the live blog of the race on the website of Trail Runner, a platform for news and updates related to the sport, Browning suffered the heart attack around 80 miles into the 90-mile race called the TDS race at UTMB. Following the release of the statement from Jeff Browning’s family on Wednesday, a claim originated on social media that Browning is currently in coma. As of now, there is no confirmation that Jeff Browning is in coma. The statement did not disclose the marathon runner’s current condition and how serious the heart attack was.
Tampa City Council member Lynn Hurtak says she has been diagnosed with breast cancer
August 27, 2026
TAMPA, Fla. – Tampa City Council member Lynn Hurtak announced Thursday she was recently diagnosed with breast cancer. Hurtak [49], who represents District 3, spoke about her treatment and diagnosis during a public meeting – just shortly after the council approved funds for a proposed Rays stadium deal. Since receiving the diagnosis on Aug. 12, Hurtak said she’s been “poked and prodded,” received MRIs and PET scans and will also need surgery. She’ll be starting chemo therapy on Aug. 31 and go through a 12-week treatment cycle, but she said she hopes to have it done by Thanksgiving. Even through the treatment, she told fellow council members that her work will continue. Hurtak was first appointed to Tampa City Council in 2022 to fill John Dingfelder’s seat, who had resigned as part of a settlement over a lawsuit, accusing him of public records law violations.
SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS
St Kitts and Nevis PM Terrance Drew hospitalized, to be transported abroad for observation
August 31, 2026
Prime Minister of St Kitts and Nevis Dr. Terrance Drew has been hospitalized and is expected to be transported abroad for specialized observation and precautionary monitoring, the government said Monday. Drew, 49, was admitted to the Joseph N. France General Hospital on Sunday evening after experiencing “mild discomfort, nausea and headache,” according to a government statement. He was “immediately admitted for observation and thorough clinical evaluation,” the statement said. The government said a medical team and specialists at the hospital attended to Drew continuously over the following 18 hours. After conducting diagnostic reviews and a comprehensive assessment, his physicians said he remained awake, alert and in stable condition. However, “out of an abundance of caution and based on the medical team’s observations since his admission,” doctors recommended that Drew be transported abroad for further observation and monitoring. Drew, a medical doctor by profession, has served as prime minister of St Kitts and Nevis since August 2022.
Researcher’s note – Prime Minister of St. Kitts and Nevis and medical doctor Terrance Drew has publicly supported routine immunizations and public health achievements, while historically advocating for personal choice regarding COVID-19 “vaccine” mandates rather than forced inoculation: https://sknis.gov.kn/2024/08/21/prime-minister-dr-drew-congratulates-public-health-team-on-tremendous-achievement/
TURKEY
Cem Yılmaz was hospitalized
August 29, 2026
Famous comedian Cem Yılmaz was hospitalized after falling ill at his home in the Ayvacık district of Çanakkale. It was learned that Yılmaz, who was reported to have experienced chest pain, underwent an angiography procedure, while Health Minister Kemal Memişoğlu announced that the 53-year-old comedian’s overall health condition is good. In a statement from the hospital where Yılmaz is being treated, it was said, ‘He came in with one of the major heart attacks a person can have. We will continue to monitor him here for 2 days.’
BANGLADESH
Adnan Rushdi suffers heart attack day after wife’s death from dengue
August 31, 2026
Drummer and music producer Adnan Rushdi has been hospitalised after suffering a heart attack, a day after his wife, Shirin Sultana, died on Saturday from dengue. Reportedly, he is currently receiving treatment at the Coronary Care Unit (CCU) of Bangladesh Medical University. Rushdi and Shirin have a young son. Rushdi has been playing drums with Bangla Five for many years. He has played drums with several well-known Bangladeshi bands, including Chirkutt.
No age reported.
NEW ZEALAND
Black Caps wife’s cancer treatment complete: ‘Sarah is officially done with leukaemia’
August 28, 2026
Hawke’s Bay – After two years and five months fighting cancer, Sarah Tickner has finished her leukaemia treatment. Now Tickner, a Hastings cafe owner and wife of Black Cap Blair Tickner, is ready for her next battle – helping others facing a similar fight. It was first diagnosed in 2024, after arriving with 8-month-old daughter Florence in England for her husband’s county cricket season. She underwent eight months of chemotherapy, and was home for Christmas. Her latest blood tests have established she’s in the clear.
No age reported.
Act MP Mark Cameron concedes he’s ‘stuffed’ due to health issues, gives valedictory speech
August 26, 2026
Wellington – An Act MP who is leaving Parliament because of ill health said he’s conceded he’s “stuffed” and urged MPs to continue fighting for farmers. Mark Cameron and former Health Minister Dr Shane Reti delivered their valedictory speeches at Parliament on Wednesday. Cameron was leaving Parliament after six years, saying kidney failure, acute heart failure, and his son’s death from suicide had taken their toll. “We all have our s…, as we say in rural New Zealand, and I have certainly had my fill,” he said. Cameron recalled deciding he was going to “carry the world on his shoulders” despite his poor health. “I remember fairly recently sitting in the chamber, house duty, nauseous, kidneys at 8% – most of you wouldn’t have known this – bugger-all left,” he said. “I conceded that I was stuffed.”
END
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
xenotransplantation, the transplantation of living organs from one species into another receives HUGE boost when man lives near 300 days with a transplanted pig kidney; ‘The case shows that a transpla
-nted pig kidney can safely support renal function “while also serving as a bridge” to a subsequent transplant with a human kidney, the study authors wrote. Over the following 271 days he needed no
| Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 5 |  |
dialysis before receiving a human transplant, according to a statement from Mass General.
“His case represents the longest dialysis-free survival following porcine kidney xenotransplantation in a living human and the first transition to human kidney transplantation,” the hospital said.’
‘Andrews has reacted well to receiving a human donor kidney.
“We could be talking decades (of life expectancy),” said the father of three children between the ages of 40 to 46. “It’s running perfect. I mean, the thing is perfect.”
The past few years have given him new appreciation for the “little things in life.”’
I would argue this is big news for medicine…if as reported. This is the type of news reports we need. Kidney disease and as a result metabolic syndrome, disease remains a massive challenge for western societies…
Pig kidney works for a record 271 days inside the body of American patient
The transplant led to “sustained dialysis independence” for nearly nine months before Tim Andrews, now 68, received a human kidney earlier this year, according to The Lancet.
END
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS/ENERGY COMMENTARIES
Labor Day Gas Prices Have Never Been Higher
Monday, Sep 07, 2026 – 06:45 AM
American travelers are facing record-high gasoline prices this Labor Day weekend as conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to global fuel supplies keep prices elevated.
The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at about $4.15 on Sept. 5, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). That is nearly $1 higher than a year ago.
This year’s Labor Day is now the first in history with a national average above $4 per gallon. The previous Labor Day record was $3.82 per gallon, set on Sept. 3, 2012.
As Bill Pan reports for The Epoch Times, GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said he expects the national average to be about $4.03 on Labor Day, well above the previous record.
“Gasoline, while not at all-time records, is at its highest level ever recorded this late in the calendar year,” De Haan said.
Prices vary widely across the country.
AAA said California has the nation’s highest average on Sept. 5 at $5.83 per gallon, followed by Washington at $5.50 and Hawaii at $5.40. Oregon, Alaska, and Nevada are all near or above $4.90.
At the other end, Indiana has the lowest average at $3.43, followed by Texas at $3.67. Oklahoma and Mississippi are just above $3.70.
Air Travel Also Costs More
Drivers are not the only travelers facing elevated costs.
AAA booking data show that domestic round-trip airfare for Labor Day is averaging about $750, up by 2 percent from last year.
Travelers flying to the most popular domestic destinations face a much larger increase. Those fares are nearly 20 percent higher than a year ago, averaging close to $800 for a round trip.
However, international travelers are seeing some relief. Average international airfare is down by 4 percent from a year ago, according to AAA.
Oil, Fuel Supplies Under Pressure
Gasoline demand typically begins to decline near the end of summer as vacations end and schools reopen, putting downward pressure on prices. However, this year, high crude oil costs have outweighed the seasonal drop in demand.
Oil prices moved back above $90 per barrel this week, after renewed exchange of fire between the United States and Iran raised concerns about supplies moving through the Middle East.
The wartime disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes, have been a major source of uncertainty.
Oil traffic through the waterway has improved from earlier disruptions. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said 17 million barrels of crude passed through the strait on Aug. 31, the highest daily volume since shipments were disrupted by the war.
But continued fighting and threats to commercial shipping have kept energy markets on edge.
Another source of pressure has come from Russia, where Ukrainian drones target oil refineries deep inside Russian territory. Those strikes have tightened supplies of refined products such as gasoline and diesel.
“While some oil shipments are apparently getting through the Strait of Hormuz, the dominant force propping up both gasoline and diesel prices is increasingly the growing loss of Russian refinery capacity,” De Haan said.
“Until that refining supply picture improves, both gasoline and diesel prices face continued upward pressure.”
Measures to Boost Supply
For the week that ended on Aug. 28, American refineries were running at 98 percent of capacity, according to the Energy Information Administration. That was the highest utilization rate since August 2018.
The federal government has also taken steps to make it easier to move fuel around the country.
President Donald Trump extended a waiver of the Jones Act for another 90 days, through Nov. 15. The waiver allows some foreign-flagged vessels to carry fuel and other covered cargo between U.S. ports when qualified American ships are unavailable.
The Environmental Protection Agency has also relaxed seasonal fuel rules. An emergency waiver effectively ended summer-blend gasoline requirements early, beginning on Sept. 1, allowing more gasoline to enter the market.
Gasoline supplies remain tight. U.S. gasoline inventories fell by 1.2 million barrels last week to 205.7 million barrels. That was about 6 percent below the five-year seasonal average.
end
CHINA/OIL DEMAND
HUGE
Chinese Oil Demand Unexpectedly Soars, Sending Shanghai Crude Above $100, With Brent Prices Set To Follow
Monday, Sep 07, 2026 – 07:04 PM
One of the reasons why the price of oil failed to soar during the “actively kinetic” phase of the Iran war, when shipments through Hormuz were effectively halted and the world faced a shortage of about 10-15mmb/d, is that Chinese oil demand plunged. Whether due to a sharp slowdown in the economy (which after the sudden “recap” of China’s banks appears very likely) or due to an aggressive drain of China’s strategic reserve, the reality is that, as discussed here extensively, both Chinese oil imports…
… and local product refining…
… cratered for much of 2026, signaling that Chinese oil demand has indeed plunged.
But no more: one of the telltale signs of the period of weak Chinese demand was the collapse in the Brent-Shanghai crude spread, which traded as negative as -$20 in late April. However, in the past few weeks, we have seen a dramatic jump in Shanghai crude, which is trading just shy of the highest level hit since the Iran war, well above $100. More importantly, it now trading a sizable premium to Brent, indicating that the period of weak Chinese demand is finally over.
And sure enough, as Bloomberg report, China – the world’s largest oil importer – is now aggressively bidding up crude prices across Africa, Canada, and Latin American markets as disruptions in the Hormuz chokepoint and limited Iranian supplies intensify competition for alternatives. The scramble is squeezing smaller Chinese refineries that once relied on heavily discounted Iranian barrels; the same refineries simply shut down a few months ago when there was not enough domestic demand.
But now, something has finally flipped, and demand for oil is suddenly soaring, sending Shanghai crude above $100 and threatening to push Brent prices – earlier today rising above $97 for the first time in over a month – also above $100 for the first time since May.
The renewed Chinese buying marks a major shift from a period when subdued Chinese buying helped restrain crude oil prices. With Iranian exports almost entirely shut off by the US blockade and fighting flaring again, as seen Monday when Saudi Aramco’s Jizan oil facilities were reportedly hit, the race to find replacement supplies around the world is becoming an increasingly expensive task for the Chinese.
Here is what some traders who spoke with Bloomberg had to say:
The turnaround is producing spikes in the price of various grades. Congo’s Djeno crude was offered to Chinese buyers at premiums of as high as $20 a barrel over ICE Brent this week, up from around $15 a couple of weeks ago, according to traders who asked not to be named as they’re not authorized to speak to the media.
Chinese buyers are also buying tanker loads of crude from Canada, Brazil, and Argentina, while stronger demand has lifted prices for Russia’s ESPO crude. Asian buyers are also pushing Dubai crude futures toward $100 per barrel.
While Chinese seaborne crude imports are still below prewar levels and are currently trending toward 10 million barrels per day, the Shanghai crude spread indicates that imports are aggressively rising, and that the race for alternative supplies may still intensify.
Bloomberg pointed out that the rebound in crude imports comes as refinery math improves and inventories are being rebuilt in China. Improved processing margins, the resumption of fuel exports, and commercial restocking are encouraging refiners to ramp up purchases, according to GL Consulting founder Liao Na.
Smaller independent refiners, known as teapots, face the greatest pressure because their traditional sourcing channels for Iranian and Venezuelan crude have eroded this year as access to those supplies has collapsed amid the Trump administration’s push to rewire global energy markets.
Liao said, “China’s robust buying lately is largely driven by refiners taking advantage of decent margins,” adding, “Active restocking by commercial players has also helped, but it’s not necessarily a sign of stronger underlying demand that’s supporting the recovery.”
Separately, Goldman Sachs energy expert Daan Struyven expects China’s ability to adjust purchases to prices to help moderate any spikes in crude prices, although he also warned that Brent may rally to as much as $120 a barrel if attacks on shipping in the Middle East increase.
“Events over the last few days do suggest that the risk of shipping disruptions broadening and intensifying is an important one,” Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV.
Goldman’s preferred way to trade another oil spike is buy going long natural gas and diesel as a way to capture gains: “While we see meaningful upside to crude oil prices, we do recommend to investors to hedge geopolitical risks by going long in global natural gas and refined-oil products,” Struyven said, referring to bets on gains. “The supply shocks are bigger than in the crude market.”
END
LATE IN THE DAY
Oil Climbs Amid Reports US Attacking Iranian Tanker, Targets Near Kharg Island
Tuesday, Sep 08, 2026 – 03:05 PM
Update(15:35ET): Oil climbed on reports of explosions on Iran’s Kharg Island:
Senior US officials to Fox: US military has struck targets near Kharg Island and Jask. The targets include Iranian oil tankers. This is part of a larger effort to squeeze Iran economically. The strategy includes sinking and disabling Iranian crude oil tankers. –FOX
MULTIPLE EXPLOSIONS HEARD NEAR KHARG ISLAND ANCHORAGE, A KEY IRANIAN OIL EXPORT HUB; CAUSE, ORIGIN & ANY POTENTIAL DAMAGE REMAIN UNCONFIRMED. – MEHR NEWS AGENCY
US is currently attacking Iranian oil tankers, i24 news reports, citing a US source
A small Iranian tanker was targeted by a missile attack from the US army 4 miles from Kharg Island, Tasnim reports
Via TasnimIRAN LAUNCHED UNDISCLOSED SECOND ATTACK ON US SHIPS ON MONDAY: WSJ
NO AMERICAN SHIPS WERE STRUCK IN THE ATTACKS: WSJ
Nothing official has yet to emerge, also amid unconfirmed reporting that Iran’s IRGC Navy has launched anti-ship cruise missiles from Jask toward the Strait of Hormuz. According to breaking Al Jazeera News:
Several explosions have been heard on Iran’s Kharg Island, according to Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency. No official information has been released on the cause or origin of the explosions.
More from WSJ on the prior Monday attack incident: “No American ships were struck in the attacks, but Iran’s recent attempts to hit American naval assets are raising alarms that the regime is using more sophisticated weapons and could be getting assistance from China or Russia.”
But Trump claims the US is in ‘control’ of Hormuz and that the war is over
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA/.USA
SPECIAL THANKS TO MILAN S FOR PROVIDING THIS FOR US:
Canada Lost 42,000 Jobs in August: StatCan
Construction cranes are seen in Toronto in a file photo. The Canadian Press/Frank Gunn
The Canadian economy shed 42,000 jobs in August, according to Statistics Canada, contrary to earlier projections by some economists.
The statistics agency said on Sept. 4 that the number of government workers fell by 20,000, declining for a third consecutive month, while the number of private sector jobs remained relatively unchanged.
Employment declined by 20,000 jobs in business, building and other support services, 8,800 in public administration, 7,700 in natural resources, and 5,600 in utilities. Canada added 22,000 manufacturing jobs, with most of the increase occurring in Ontario.
The latest figures came in below economists’ projections. A Reuters poll of economists had forecast a gain of 15,000 jobs in August, while RBC Economics had projected an increase of 5,000.
The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.4 percent, after declining by a cumulative 0.5 percentage points in May, June, and July. The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points among core-aged men to 6 percent and fell by 0.2 percentage points among core-aged women to 5 percent.
The unemployment rate remained at 12.9 percent for youth and 5.1 percent for Canadians aged 55 and older. The employment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 60.8 percent.
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Quebec was hardest hit, losing 19,000 jobs, while Ontario followed with a loss of 18,000. Employment increased by 2,400 in New Brunswick and changed little in the other provinces.
The Canadian economy had added 75,000 jobs in July and 18,000 jobs in June, according to StatCan.
The agency said many industries dependent on U.S. demand for exports “continue to face an uncertain economic context” due to tariffs. StatCan said the layoff rate over the past year was 0.9 percent for workers in industries dependent on U.S. export demand, compared with 0.7 percent for workers in other industries.
The latest jobs report comes as trade tensions between Canada and the United States have escalated, with Washington imposing 50 percent tariffs on $27.6 billion worth of Canadian goods on Aug. 22, and Ottawa intending to impose dollar-for-dollar, rate-for-rate counter-tariffs on $27.6 billion worth of U.S. imports starting on Sept. 8.
Since early 2025, the United States has also imposed tariffs on Canadian automobiles and auto parts, steel, aluminum, copper, and lumber.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said on Sept. 4 that he attributed the job losses to what he described as the Liberal government’s “high taxes, red tape, and more bureaucracy.” Conservative MP Garnett Genuis said the employment figures were based on data collected before trade talks between Ottawa and Washington broke down, arguing that the losses therefore could not be attributed to the United States.
StatCan reported on Aug. 28 that the Canadian economy grew by 3.3 percent at an annualized rate in the second quarter, or 0.8 percent compared with the first quarter. The agency said the growth was led by higher exports, household spending, and business capital investment, with increased exports of passenger cars, light trucks, and energy products contributing to the increase.
Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said on Aug. 28 that the GDP figures showed that the government’s plan “is working” and said Canada had “the strongest growth in the G7.”
END
CANADA/USA
Trump Says He’s Banning US Sales of Products From Canada’s Bombardier
Canada’s counter-tariffs come into force on Sept. 8.
A Bombardier Challenger aircraft under construction at the Bombardier manufacturing facility in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, on Feb. 18, 2025. Graham Hughes/AFP via Getty Images
&
President Donald Trump says he’ll ban sales in America of products made by Canadian aviation giant Bombardier unless the company builds its products in the United States.
His Sept. 7 comment comes a day before Canada’s 15 percent to 50 percent counter-tariffs on nearly US$20 billion worth of American products are set to take effect, in a tit-for-tat response to Washington imposing 50 percent tariffs on about the same amount of Canadian products since Aug. 22.
“Their products aren’t good enough! Over 50% of their revenue comes from the United States — They live off American Buyers, American Companies, American Airports, and American Service — All while Canada blocks our GREAT American Banks, and Companies, throughout the U.S.A.,” Trump said on Truth Social.
“They even blocked Gulfstream Aerospace from doing business in Canada — Completely unjust and unfair! That Era is OVER! If they want our Market, they must build here, and stop treating America like a ‘piggybank,’” he added, while urging “buy American” and using American airlines and liquor.
Trump had also earlier announced new 50 percent tariffs on Canadian vehicles and auto parts beginning in 2027. Washington has hinted that there may be more counter-measures in response to Canada planning to impose counter-tariffs, first announced by Prime Minister Mark Carney on Aug. 22.
Trump had previously taken aim at the Montreal-based Bombardier, saying in January that the United States would decertify Bombardier’s Global Express and all other aircraft made in Canada, and impose new 50 percent tariffs on all Canadian aircraft, until Canadian regulators certified several plane models made by the U.S.-based Gulfstream. Canada certified Gulfstream’s planes in February, and Washington didn’t go through with its threat.
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Bombardier says it has bases and workers all around the United States, and has a “deeply integrated network” in the country.
“Bombardier aircraft create tens of thousands of U.S. jobs through the company’s growing American footprint as well as within its supply chain made up of approximately 2,800 American companies across 47 states,” the company said in a statement emailed to The Epoch Times.
A spokesperson said that the company has five service centers in the United States, including in Tucson, Ariz., Dallas, Wichita, Kans., Hartford, Con., and Miami, and is directly employing 3,5000 people in the United States. He added that the company is expanding its presence in the United States, including by opening a new service center in Fort Wayne, Indiana.
“Bombardier values its great partnership with American companies and its U.S. employees. Our plan is to continue to invest in our people, our customers and the communities in which we operate across the country,” the company said.
Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette said she wouldn’t respond to “provocation with provocation.”
“Bombardier is a source of pride for Quebec, a flagship of our economy, and a major player in our aerospace industry,” she said in a post in French. “Quebec will not allow anyone to dictate where our companies must produce in order to access a market. We will defend our companies, our workers, and our expertise with resolve.”
The Epoch Times reached out to the Prime Minister’s Office but didn’t immediately receive a response.
Trade talks between Ottawa and Washington broke down on Aug. 21, with Carney saying the collapse was due to the United States wanting to omit medium- and heavy-duty trucks from tariff exemptions, restrict Canada’s ability to make trade agreements with other countries, and making demands that would restrict Canada’s French-language content requirements.
Members of the U.S. administration have said that Canada’s negotiating team walked away from talks for “political reasons,” and that Canada would have received a beneficial trade deal, disputing that Washington had strict “red-lines” around Canada’s trade deals with other countries and French-language requirement.
Trump also took aim at Canada over the weekend with other posts, including on the exchange rate and calling Carney “governor.”
He said in a Sept. 6 post that Canada’s “dollar imbalance with the U.S.” is “unacceptable.”
“It has been that way for years – but no longer!” Trump added, without elaborating on what actions he might take.
The Canadian dollar is currently valued at around 72 cents compared to the U.S. dollar, which raises the cost of U.S. imports for Canadians, but makes Canadian exports and tourism more attractive to Americans. Trump has previously said he is opposed to a stronger U.S. dollar, as it makes U.S. exports less competitive compared to countries with weaker currencies.
The last time the loonie was at parity with the U.S. dollar was in 2013, after years of higher commodity prices helped boost Canadian exports and strengthen its currency.
On Sept. 6, Trump also posted an image of himself appearing to knock Carney over during a game of hockey and saying, “Get up, governor.” Trump has repeatedly said Canada should join the United States as a state, and has said Carney and his predecessor former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would be the “governor” of that state.
On Sept. 7, Trump also posted an image of North America, with every country covered by the American flag.
END
CANADA/USA
Canada’s Counter-Tariffs Take Effect As Trump Targets Bombardier And Midterm Battlegrounds
Tuesday, Sep 08, 2026 – 10:30 AM
Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods took effect at 12:01 a.m. Tuesday – raising duties of 15%, 25%, and 50% on hundreds of American products after last month’s collapse of bilateral talks. Ottawa says the package matches the United States “dollar for dollar, rate for rate.” Finance Canada values the covered U.S. imports at $27.6 billion; some U.S. accounts put the figure nearer $20 billion. Either way, it is a small share of total two-way trade – and a large share of the political risk.
The list is drawn from goods already hit by U.S. Section 338 and Section 232 tariffs. Section 338, a long-dormant provision of the Tariff Act of 1930, had not previously been used by a president to impose duties; Trump invoked it in July to levy 50% on selected Canadian goods after talks failed, and those U.S. duties took effect August 22. Canada’s matching rates now apply as follows: 50% on most steel and aluminum products (up from an earlier 25% Canadian counter-duty), plus furniture and clothing; 25% on appliances, dairy including cheese, and some metal derivatives; 15% on selected electronics, tools, and machinery. Goods already in transit when the rules took effect are exempt. The surtaxes apply to U.S.-origin goods under Canadian marking rules, not merely to shipments that happen to cross the border.
Seafood and fish were on Ottawa’s original list at 25% but were pulled on August 27 after warnings from Canada’s Atlantic processors and Maine’s lobster industry. About half of Maine’s fall catch is processed in New Brunswick; a tariff on those lobsters would have hit both sides. Finance Canada called the change “select adjustments… based on feedback” while adding other items, including copper wire and charcoal, to keep the dollar-for-dollar total. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) applauded the retreat – evidence that the targeting was political, and that it can be walked back when the politics cut the wrong way.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has framed the response as measured but non-negotiable. Canadian officials have described the country as under economic assault and have pledged not to match every rhetorical escalation. The practical strategy is twofold: impose a politically targeted list at home, and shop for other markets abroad.
Why Michigan and Ohio matter more than the headline total
Heading into November midterms, Canada’s new tariffs are designed to land in states that do a high volume of business with Canada, and which have competitive races. Ohio shipped the largest dollar volume of newly covered goods. Michigan, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin follow close behind. Michigan sends roughly a third of its merchandise exports to Canada; auto parts often cross the Detroit-Windsor corridor more than once before a vehicle is finished. The new Gordie Howe International Bridge was meant to ease that flow. It now sits at the center of a fight over who pays the tariff.
Those same industrial states host competitive House and Senate races. Michigan’s Senate contest between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is one of several Great Lakes races that will test whether tariff costs show up at the ballot box; it is not the only possible pivot for Senate control. Ohio’s Republican-held Senate seat is also in play. Canadian ministers have said openly that the product list was chosen to concentrate pressure where U.S. politics would feel it. Industry Minister Mélanie Joly, at the August announcement, said Canada was “targeting products that will target states in the U.S.” and added: “we’re being wise and strategic to put political pressure. And that’s why we think it’s the right thing to do right now.”
Trade groups on both sides warn that the first-round dollar amounts understate the damage. Integrated supply chains mean a duty on steel, parts, or appliances shows up as higher costs for factories and households on both sides of the border. Brad Wood, senior director for trade and innovation at the National Foreign Trade Council, called the cycle “bad for Canadian businesses and consumers, and bad for American businesses and consumers,” and said each new layer is another barrier the two governments will eventually have to unwind.
Trump’s next pressure points: autos, Bombardier, and Lake America
Washington has not treated Canada’s move as the last word. President Trump has already threatened higher auto tariffs in 2027 and, last week, floated cutting off bilateral trade altogether. On Sunday he attacked what he called Canada’s “dollar imbalance.”
Hours before the Canadian tariffs took effect, Trump turned to Bombardier. In a Truth Social post he declared “NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES,” called the company’s products “not good enough,” and said that if it wants the U.S. market it “must build here.” He closed with a list of commands: buy American, fly American airliners, drink American liquor, and “SAIL ON LAKE AMERICA.”
Bombardier did not answer the president by name. It noted that aerospace is a major U.S. export industry, that it builds wings and other components in California and Texas, and that it supports tens of thousands of American jobs through plants and a supply chain spanning dozens of states. About 55% of its 2025 revenue came from U.S. customers. The White House has not said how a sales ban would be enforced on aircraft already certified by the FAA.
The Bombardier fight is not new. Trump threatened decertification and a 50% aircraft tariff earlier this year over Gulfstream certification in Canada. Ottawa later certified several Gulfstream models. In 2018 a first-term Commerce Department case against Bombardier airliners produced a huge preliminary duty that the U.S. International Trade Commission later rejected.
Trump has also rewritten the map. On August 27 he signed an executive order directing the Interior Department to update geographic systems immediately from Lake Ontario to Lake America; Great Lakes placards went up in the Oval Office.
Carney hit back, saying “We know that America is changing. Their trading relationships, their foreign policies, their national monuments, their hydronyms. Canadians also know that naming reality means calling it Lake Ontario – then, now and always.“
Supreme Tariff Tiff
Canada aside – on February 20, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump could not use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose his sweeping “reciprocal” and emergency tariffs. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that IEEPA contains no reference to tariffs and that no prior president had read such a power into the statute. Section 232 metal tariffs were left standing. The administration has since rebuilt parts of the program under other authorities, including Section 338 for Canada and a forthcoming roster of duties against other countries accused of “excess capacity” and persistent surpluses with the United States. Trump has also threatened to block trade with countries that export more to the United States than they import. A consumer-price report due this week will test how much earlier tariff rounds have already fed inflation.
Ottawa’s hedge: Europe, and a quiet channel to Beijing
Carney will attend Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the Union address in Strasbourg on September 16 and speak to the European Parliament on September 17 – the first foreign head of government invited into that ritual. He has said Canada will open “intense discussions” this fall on a deeper economic and security partnership with the EU, already its second-largest trading partner under CETA.
In parallel, Canadian and Chinese defence officials held a coordination dialogue on September 4, the first such formal talks in more than eight years. Beijing announced the meeting; Ottawa later confirmed working-level military-to-military contact. The optics – reopening a channel closed after the 2018 detentions of two Canadians, while NATO and EU ties remain the stated priority – have already drawn criticism at home.
The immediate economic hit from Tuesday’s list is limited by design. The larger question is whether a two-month window before U.S. midterms produces a deal or another round.
END
BRAZIL
Bolsonaro Leads Socialist Lula As “Huge Bet” On Right-Wing Victory Fuels Brazil ETF Options Frenzy
Tuesday, Sep 08, 2026 – 06:55 AM
Summary:
- “Explosive Surge” in iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) call open interest
- BTG Pactual/Nexus Survey Shows Bolsonaro Leads Over Socialist Lula
- UBS Calls Brazil Election “Extremely Close” – Bolsonaro Win Would Cement LatAm’s Political Shift
The BTG Pactual/Nexus survey released earlier today puts right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly ahead of socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, though within the margin of error, as a deepening Supreme Court scandal strengthens the conservative challenger’s campaign.
At the center of the political turmoil is Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the case that sent former President Jair Bolsonaro to prison for plotting a coup. Newly published private messages, according to Bloomberg, suggest closer ties between Moraes and Daniel Vorcaro, the former owner of failed lender Banco Master, which is under investigation for fraud.
“Anyone who votes for Lula is voting for Alexandre de Moraes,” Bolsonaro recently told supporters.
Polymarket odds for next month’s Brazilian election show the gap between Bolsonaro and Lula narrowing dramatically.
Overnight, we showed an “explosive surge” in iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) call open interest.
“The Brazil FOMO is real,” The Market Ear wrote on X.
A Bolsonaro victory would reinforce South America’s broader shift from unhinged left-wing regimes toward the common sense right.
UBS Calls Brazil Election “Extremely Close” – Bolsonaro Win Would Cement LatAm’s Political Shift
Socialist Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s polling lead over right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has eroded in recent weeks, leaving both statistically tied in UBS’ latest runoff polling average.
Arend Kapteyn, UBS’ global head of economics and strategy research, described the upcoming election in early October as “extremely close” in a note to clients on Monday.
Kapteyn’s note today puts Bolsonaro at 50.4% in a hypothetical runoff, against 49.6% for Lula, adding that the narrowing spread leaves the candidates statistically tied.
Kapteyn continued:
On 4 October, Brazilians will vote for a president, the entire Chamber of Deputies and two-thirds of the Senate. Brazil currently has one of the highest real interest rates in the world, contributing to increasingly adverse debt dynamics. In our view, an election outcome that delivers a credible fiscal consolidation program could significantly improve the macroeconomic outlook. Relative to our baseline, real interest rates could fall by at least 2.5 percentage points (to around 5% from 7.5%), potential growth could be 1pp higher (2.5% rather than 1.5%), and inflation could be around 1pp lower (3.5% rather than 4.5%).
Our poll aggregator currently shows first-round voting intentions of 42.5% for Lula and 36.0% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Given the historical polling error of approximately 3 percentage points, the candidates’ confidence intervals overlap. Rejection rates are elevated for both candidates, while other contenders collectively attract 21.5% of voting intentions. If no candidate secures an outright majority in the first round, a runoff will be held on 25 October.
The second round appears even tighter. Lula currently polls at 49.6% of voting intentions versus 50.4% for Flávio. Compared with our poll update a week ago, the lead has effectively changed hands. Importantly, these surveys were conducted before the latest controversy involving a Supreme Court justice, who is alleged to have advised an individual under fraud investigation, a case that could potentially implicate key allies within Lula’s inner circle.
Historically, incumbent presidents have generally secured re-election when their “good or great” approval rating exceeded 40%. Lula currently stands at 37% on this measure. Conversations with two political consultants also suggest that momentum may be shifting in Flávio’s favor. Nevertheless, prediction markets continue to assign Lula a modest advantage. Polymarket implies odds of roughly 55%-43% in Lula’s ffavor while Kalshi places the race at approximately 55%-44%.
END
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1611 DOWN 0.0017
USA/ YEN 154.36 DOWN 2.04 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!! BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE. URGES PENSION AND INSUANCE FUNDS TO BUY JAPANESE BONDS
GBP/USA 1.3524 DOWN 0.0022 OR 22 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3809 UP 0.0004 //CDN DOLLAR DOWN 4 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 7.85 PTS OR 0.20%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 95.94 PTS OR 0.38%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.98%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 95.94 PTS OR 0.38%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.85 PTS OR 0.20%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .98%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 1121.84 PTS OR 1.69%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: $4395.40
silver:$65.97
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 48.46 UP 2 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 86.34 ROUBLE// DOWN 0 ROUBLE AND 34 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.1828 UP 1 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.8096 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.8140 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.446 UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early TUESDAY MORNING: 98.99 DOWN 16 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.703% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2,889% DOWN 1 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.970 UP 2 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.803 UP 2 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 4.185 UP 3 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.3633 UP 3 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1613 DOWN 0.0015 OR 15 basis points
USA/Japan: 155.73 UP 0.102 OR YEN IS DOWN 10 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.1764 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.8022 UP 2 BASIS POINTS.
CANADIAN DOLLAR UP 23 BASIS PTS TO 1.3782
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY 6.7106 ON SHORE ..UP
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.7073
TURKISH LIRA: 48.46 UP 2 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from FRIDAY at 4.793% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.241 DOWN 1 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.387 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM $4396.00
SILVER AT 10;00: $65.94
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest ratesTUESDAY
DAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM///
London: CLOSED UP 10.47 PTS OR 0.10%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 1.10 PTS OR 0.00%
FRANCE: UP 11.83 OR 0.14 PTS
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 24.70 PTS OR 0.12%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 52.10 PTS OR 0.10%
WTI Oil price 93.30 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 98.90 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 87.08 /// ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 14/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.805 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.435 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM//
Euro vs USA 1.1626 DOWN 0.0002 OR 2 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3541 DOWN 0.0005 OR 5 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 5.1341 DOWN 5 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.8085 UP 2 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.909 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.982 UP 1 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 153.92 DOWN 2.30 OR YEN UP 230 BASIS PTS//GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM 160.00/ EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3782 DOWN 0.0021 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 21 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 93.25
Brent OIL: 99/32
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS pts to 4.793
USA 30 yr bond yield: UP 1 PTS to 5.252%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.394 UP 2 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.798 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.435 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 98.84 DOWN 34 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 48.45 UP 1 BASIS PTS GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 85.85 UP 1 AND 9/100 roubles //
GOLD $4,365.30 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 65.85 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 626.72 POINTS OR 1.17%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 36/45 PTS OR 0.12%
VOLATILITY INDEX 15.52 UP 0.22 PTS OR 1.44%
GLD: $ 399.22 DOWN 7.05 PTS OR 1.73%
SLV/ 59.37PTS DOWN 0.45 OR 0.75%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 365.08 PTS OR 1.00%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
‘
Houthis Hammer Black Gold Bears, Stocks Slide Despite Massive Short-Squeeze, & Momo Reversal
WRAP UP:
Stocks fall and crude gains amid escalating geopolitics – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Tuesday, Sep 08, 2026 – 03:58 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities down, Treasuries down, Crude up, Dollar flat, Gold down
- REAR VIEW: NY Fed SCE sees 1- & 5yr inflation expectations unchanged, 3yr ticks lower; Saudi confirms energy facilities were hit, Houthis take responsibility; Qatar says it’s working with peers and China to resume talks with US and Iran; IRGC announces capture of US drone; US strikes Iranian tanker, IRGC vows response; Average US 3yr note auction; NVS sinks on Phase 3 trial miss, peers dragged lower; GLW signs deal with VZ; QCOM signs pact with AMZN
- COMING UP: Data: Chinese Inflation (Aug), US ADP Employment Change Weekly. Events: US Treasury Long-End Bond Buybacks Announcement, NBP Announcement, EIA STEO. Speakers: ECB’s Lagarde. Supply: Australia, Germany, US.
More Newsquawk in 2 steps:
- 1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
- 2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
MARKET WRAP
Stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones lagging while the equal-weight S&P fell by around 1%, with the majority of sectors also in the red. Energy, Utilities and Real Estate closed higher, while Health Care, Financials and Materials lagged.
Crude prices chopped throughout the session but ultimately settled in the green. Oil was initially supported by comments from the Saudi Energy Minister that a number of energy facilities and utilities had been hit, temporarily halting some operations. However, crude later moved off its highs after the Qatari Foreign Ministry said it is working with regional partners and China to resume talks between the US and Iran. Post-settlement, oil moved higher again on reports of explosions at Kharg Island, followed by reports that the US had attacked a “small” Iranian oil tanker. Further choppy trade followed after the WSJ reported that Iran had launched an undisclosed second wave of attacks on US Navy ships, although none were struck.
In FX, the Yen continued to outperform while the NZD lagged. The CAD found some support from firmer oil prices, although ongoing trade tensions with the US limited gains. The dollar was little changed.
Treasuries largely tracked moves in oil prices, with yields ultimately settling higher across the curve. The 3-year auction was solid, although not particularly strong despite the higher outright yield on offer versus August. Attention remains firmly on this week’s US inflation data, with PPI due Thursday and CPI on Friday.
The data highlight on Tuesday was the NY Fed SCE report, which saw inflation expectations little changed, while perceptions of the labour market deteriorated, albeit consumers saw a lower risk of losing their own jobs.
Gold prices were hit amid the higher-yield environment, with attention turning to Friday’s US CPI report for further direction on September Fed expectations, with money markets currently assigning around a 60% probability of a 25bp hike.
US
NY FED SCE: US consumer inflation expectations were broadly stable in August, with one-year expectations unchanged at 3.6%, three-year expectations edging down to 3.2% (prev. 3.3%), and five-year expectations unchanged at 3.0%. However, expected gas price growth jumped 1.7ppts to 4.6%, while food, medical care and rent price expectations also increased. On the labour market, consumers became more pessimistic about the broader outlook, with the perceived probability that unemployment will be higher in a year’s time rising 1.6ppts to 44.4%, its highest since April 2020, while the perceived probability of finding a job after losing one fell to 45.4%. Conversely, the perceived probability of losing one’s job declined to 13.8%, its lowest since February 2026, while the expected quit rate rose to 19.5% from 18.6%. Household finances also showed some deterioration: perceptions and expectations of financial situations worsened, expected credit availability deteriorated, and the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months rose 1.2ppts to 13.2%. Overall, the survey showed largely stable inflation expectations but deteriorating perceptions of the broader labour market and household finances, despite consumers seeing a lower risk of losing their own jobs.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLED 5 TICKS LOWER AT 107-10
T-notes chop to oil prices as eyes turn to inflation data and supply. At settlement, 2-year +2.6bps at 4.400%, 3-year +2.6bps at 4.476%, 5-year +2.5bps at 4.573%, 7-year +2.7bps at 4.683%, 10-year +2.0bps at 4.804%, 20-year +2.2bps at 5.270%, 30-year +2.0bps at 5.264%.
THE DAY: Treasuries were choppy on Tuesday following the return from the long weekend. T-notes moved lower overnight before moving higher through the US morning as oil prices came off their highs, although gains were pared into settlement, with yields settling higher across the curve. Crude had initially been supported by comments from the Saudi Energy Minister that a number of energy facilities and utilities had been hit, temporarily halting some operations. However, oil later moved off its highs after the Qatari Foreign Ministry said it is working with regional partners and China to resume talks between the US and Iran.
The data highlight on Tuesday was the NY Fed SCE report, which saw inflation expectations little changed, while perceptions of the labour market deteriorated, albeit consumers saw a lower risk of losing their own jobs. The data had little impact on the Treasury market, with attention turning to US inflation data later this week alongside further Treasury supply.
The 3-year auction was solid, with the 0.1bp stop-through, above-average bid-to-cover, strong direct participation and low dealer allocation pointing to a healthy reception, particularly given the significant CPI event risk later this week. The substantially higher outright yield versus August likely helped support demand, although weaker indirect participation and the smaller stop-through prevented the result from being particularly strong.
Attention now turns to the US PPI and CPI reports due Thursday and Friday, respectively, which will be key in shaping Fed rate expectations ahead of next Wednesday’s FOMC. Money markets currently assign around a 60% probability of a 25bp hike.
SUPPLY
- US sold USD 58bln of 3-year notes; stop-through 0.1bps
- US sold 6-week bills at a high rate of 3.740%, B/C 2.93x
- US sold 3-mth bills at high-rate 3.800%, B/C 2.61x; 6-mth bills at high-rate 3.890%, B/C 2.88x
STIRS / OPERATIONS
- Fed Hike Pricing via CME FedWatch: Sept 14.6bps (prev. 14.9bps), Dec 35bps (prev. 34.8bps).
- EFFR at 3.63% (prev. 3.63%), volumes at USD 103bln (prev. USD 109bln) on September 4th
- SOFR at 3.65% (prev. 3.66%), volumes at USD 2.888tln (prev. USD 2.949tln) on September 4th
- NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.63bln (prev. 0.68bln) across 3 counterparties (prev. 2) on September 8th
CRUDE
WTI (V6) SETTLED USD 1.55 HIGHER AT USD 93.03/BBL; BRENT (X6) SETTLED USD 0.92 HIGHER AT USD 97.92/BBL
Note: Given Labour Day on Monday (WTI didn’t settle), WTI and Brent traded at wider spreads than usual on Tuesday.
The crude complex saw choppy trade, as US participants returned after the long Labor Day weekend. Initially, WTI and Brent were buoyed and hit peaks of USD 94.73/bbl and USD 99.46/bbl, respectively, after the Saudi Energy Minister said a number of energy facilities and utilities were hit, and that they are temporarily halting some operations. The Energy Minister added that authorities are working to ensure the safety of facilities and continuity of operations. Prior to this, Yemeni forces reportedly launched ballistic missile and drone attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia, including around Khamis Mushait, Abha airport and King Khalid Air Base. Following these remarks, benchmarks pared a large chunk of gains, and albeit seemingly not a headline driver, just on slightly more constructive remarks; Iran reported “significant progress” on a Strait of Hormuz shipping route, while Qatar said it is working with regional partners and China to resume US-Iran talks. In terms of SPR, crude oil stocks fell by about 1.2mln barrels to 285.4mln barrels last week, the lowest since 1982.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX -0.58% at 7,674, NDX -0.12% at 29,508, DJI -1.18% at 52,791, RUT -0.52% at 2,960
SECTORS: Healthcare -2.55%, Financials -1.43%, Materials -0.91%, Industrials -0.51%, Consumer Discretionary -0.49%, Consumer Staples -0.48%, Communications -0.29%, Technology -0.19%, Real Estate flat, Utilities +0.85%, Energy +1.01%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.14% at 6,413, DAX 40 -0.05% at 25,993, FTSE 100 -0.10% at 10,812, CAC 40 +0.14% at 8,318, FTSE MIB -0.10% at 52,177, IBEX 35 -0.12% at 19,997, PSI +0.66% at 9,481, SMI -1.55% at 14,058, AEX +0.06% at 1,116
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Qualcomm (QCOM) announces a multi-generational pact with Amazon (AMZN) to build next-gen AI data centre infrastructure
- Novartis’ (NVS) Phase 3 Lp(a)HORIZON study of pelacarsen missed its primary endpoint
- Tesla (TSLA) FSD Supervised approved for use in Slovenia.
- United Natural Foods (UNFI): EPS beat.
- Uber (UBER) President and COO purchased 70k shares.
- Intel (INTC) upgraded at Northland to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Market Perform’.
- Rigetti (RGTI) secured USD 100mln in US Commerce Department funding.
- Amgen (AMGN) downgraded at BMO Capital to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Outperform’.
- Peloton Interactive (PTON) downgraded at Morgan Stanley to ‘Underweight’ from ‘Equal Weight’.
- Corning (GLW) has entered into a fibre deal with Verizon (VZ) for the building of AI connectivity, CNBC reports.
- Constellation Brands (STZ) said unexpected inflation in US trucking and commodity costs will create “a little bit of gross profit margin pressure” in the second half despite significant cost savings.
FX
USD was choppy on Tuesday as geopolitical developments dictated oil price swings ahead of US CPI and PPI this week. USD failed to track the move higher in US 2yr yields and oil prices amid the Houthis hitting Saudi Arabia’s energy facilities. The US Treasury’s plans to increase buyback sizes of longer-dated nominal coupon securities may still be acting as a dampening factor for the USD given the resurfacing of the debasement trade in recent weeks. As we await the likely determinants of the FOMC September meeting, CPI and PPI this week, the focus will be on geopolitical developments. Multiple explosions were heard across Iran, and i24 News reported that the cause was US attacks on Iranian oil tankers. Iran had warned such attacks would be met with a response on US bases.
JPY extended its Labor Day strength that was likely exacerbated by thin liquidity. USD/JPY now trades lower around 153.87, seeing weakness through negative US-Iran headlines, breaking its usual positive correlation with higher US yields. Today’s data was also positive for the Yen, in which Labour Cash Earnings were firmer than expected, with Q2 GDP revised higher.
NZD was the G10 laggard on Tuesday, continuing to underperform vs AUD following the dovish RBNZ hike last week. AUD, EUR, GBP and CHF were all little changed. CAD saw modest strength despite Canada’s retaliatory tariffs taking effect today. According to Radio-Canada, USTR Greer is to meet with Canadian trade minister Leblanc today.
USA DATA RELEASES
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON..
.Victor Davis Hanson: The Left Is Dragging America Back To The Dark Ages
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 07:15 PM
Editor’s note: This is a lightly edited transcript of today’s video from Daily Signal senior contributor Victor Davis Hanson. Subscribe to our YouTube channel to see more of his videos.
Hello, this is Victor Davis Hanson for the Daily Signal.
The more you look around us today, I think a good description of 2026, culturally, economically, socially, politically, is that we are in a modern medieval world.
Maybe we’re progressive regressives, and I don’t mean that just in the sense that progressives are regressive, and they are, but that one part of our society is advancing at lightning speed to the future and progressing. But the other part is regressing, and regressing at a phenomenal pace back to what I would call the medieval period.
Remember, the medieval period was roughly that area in time after the fall of the Roman Empire in the West, roughly AD 500 to around AD 1300 to 1400, the beginning of the Italian Renaissance. In medievalism, we often talk about primitivism after the destruction of the classical world during the Dark Ages, the early medieval period, and it’s characterized by epidemics, bubonic plague, typhus, typhoid, smallpox, terrible sanitation in urban centers. They had forgotten the Roman use of sewage and aqueducts.
There were open borders. National states popped up that couldn’t defend themselves, so you saw castles and walls pop up all over the European countryside in a way you had not during the Roman period. In cities, they were walled, towns even, and the gates closed at dusk to prevent gratuitous crime.
But at the same time that this was happening, you had some of the greatest works of literature in the Western world. You had Chaucer’s “Canterbury Tales,” Dante’s “Inferno,” St. Thomas Aquinas’ “Summa Theologica.” And if you look at the architectural expertise and scientific knowledge of architecture, it was progressing at a geometric rate when you look at the huge cathedrals at Seville or Cologne.
I should remind everybody that around 536, Santa Sofia was created, the Church of the Holy Wisdom in Constantinople. It would be the largest church in Christendom for a thousand years. And everything from the mass production of crossbows to eyeglasses was a product of the medieval period, even if, as I said, the daily lives of most people were wretched.
Now let’s switch to the modern period.
All of us now can call anywhere in the world in seconds on our iPhones. Anything you want to know, past, present, future, you can just get on a cheap computer and ask an artificial intelligence program from the many free platforms. You can watch movies, you can watch entertainment on satellites. Anything you want is at your fingertips.
The nation itself is exploring space. We’re getting close to conquering cancer. I can attest to that. Computers allow you to write without even speaking. You can, unfortunately, compose a whole term paper or a book with AI. You can make a movie with AI.
Yet at the same time that’s happening, look at what’s going on in Berkeley here in California or Los Angeles. We’re seeing outbreaks of medieval diseases that we thought had been conquered years ago, given our sophisticated knowledge of sewage and water treatment. We had a typhus breakout in Los Angeles. We had leptospirosis, a rat disease, in Berkeley.
You look at the homeless camps all over our major cities. People are just out in the open fornicating, urinating, defecating, injecting drugs. There’s tons of feces that has to be removed, and it’s so strange in this modern medievalism.
We have sophisticated researchers who go into a hospital in Chicago or go to a cancer center in San Francisco and have to check the bottoms of their shoes to make sure they don’t have feces as they go into their space-age laboratories.
It’s really funny. In the medieval period, public hangings and beheadings were sort of public events that people flocked out to see. Is that any different than our glorification of murderers?
And there is a difference. Luigi Mangione, they named an opera after him in California. The killer of Charlie Kirk brought people jubilation. I won’t even get into Lindsay Clancy, who strangled her three children and became every woman to the feminist left.
At least in the medieval period, they knew that the murderer had done something wrong and was being punished. In the post-medieval period, we are glorifying that murderer, and that’s really striking.
And so, what I’m getting at is we are the most regulated, the most advanced, the most modern, the most scientific society in history, even as we can’t solve problems that were solvable, and the medieval period would have died to know the solutions that we have in our hands to make sure we have clean water, to make sure there is no crime, to make sure there is no disease, to make sure that people don’t defecate on the street. But we don’t do it. We willingly don’t do it.
Now, the question to finish is why?
We have an elite that has embraced a very toxic ideology throughout history, and that is mandated, government-sanctioned equality of result. And they have divided, therefore, to further that ideology, the world into victims and victimizers, an arbitrary classification, sometimes based on class, but increasingly on race.
And once they identify someone as a victim who’s not responsible for his plight, then it’s the duty of the society to allow him to express himself. If you have a lot of teenagers who want to loot a jewelry store, then you say they were hungry and they needed food.
If you see homeless people living on the street, then it was because of something the majority culture did to them.
And the result of that is when people engage in very dangerous antisocial behavior, an elite will tell the rest of us that they’re not subject to law enforcement or they’re not subject to the laws that apply to the rest of us.
But there are two really pernicious addenda here.
No. 1, the people who do this on the left, who believe in this mandated equality and a binary of victim and victimizer, are never subject to the consequences of their own ideology. Nancy Pelosi‘s home is not surrounded by homeless people. Jane Fonda doesn’t have to trip over people injecting drugs when she walks outside her door. The Hollywood stars in Malibu who champion the homeless have very clear security. You can’t get near their homes.
In other words, we, the lab rats, are those upon whom they experiment.
And there’s another reason as well. It’s not just that they experiment on us – and this ideology is not applicable to itself – but more importantly, they believe that they are morally superior because most of them are agnostics or atheists. They have lost their God, but they have found it in a post-Enlightenment caring, abstract though it may be, for victims.
And when you put this religious element to it, because it makes no sense to allow medieval diseases and medievalism to dominate your cities in crime, filth and homelessness, but they do it.
They feel morally superior, and it gives them meaning in their life in a way that we, the majority, find not morally superior, but morally repugnant.
We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of the Daily Signal or ZeroHedge.
END
FICO Crashes As Trump Housing Chief Pulte Cracks Mortgage-Score Monopoly
Saturday, Sep 05, 2026 – 02:35 PM
“Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion have been overcharging Americans for far too long,” Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte wrote on X late Thursday.
The Trump administration’s campaign against the cost of credit scores and reports used in the mortgage industry sent shares of Fair Isaac, the company behind FICO scores, as well as Equifax and TransUnion, tumbling on Friday morning.
Pulte continued: “This will end soon. We are seriously considering bi-merge, and stronger solutions (SAFER and SOUNDER). We will not allow companies to take advantage of American consumers. No more.”
Pulte’s warning was accompanied by a Reuters report that mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will allow all lenders to use VantageScore, a competing credit-scoring model, expanding a rollout across 50 lenders.
The move to lower costs for homebuyers and boost competition in the mortgage credit-scoring market, which FICO dominates, is seen by the market as a direct challenge to FICO’s long-standing dominance.
Ashish Sabadra, an equity-research analyst at RBC Capital Markets, provided clients on Friday morning with more details about the industry implications following Pulte’s X post:
Assessing the Impact on Credit Bureaus (EFX/TRU/EXPN) and FICO
Our view: Tweet from FHFA Director Bill Pulte suggests the agency is seriously considering permitting bi-merge credit reports for conforming loans. If fully adopted across the mortgage market, this shift could negatively impact up to one-third of mortgage inquiries. Beyond volume loss, the move would also introduce greater competition in mortgage credit reporting, a dynamic we will monitor closely for signs of pricing pressure.
Regarding bureau-level impact, EFX carries the greatest mortgage exposure given its mortgage solutions and income and employment verification businesses, though these same assets also present meaningful bundling opportunities. However, with the remaining third-party resellers estimated to control 75%+ of the market, these players may preferentially gravitate toward TRU and EXPN. EXPN has the least mortgage exposure among the three bureaus and would likely face the smallest revenue headwind from this potential regulatory change.
Separately, Bill Pulte also tweeted that, effective immediately, he is instructing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to approve all lenders to use VantageScore. VantageScore adoption has already gained meaningful traction, with VS4 market share reaching approximately 25% at UWM and ~34% at Rocket through August 25th. However, while 50 lenders participated in the pilot program, Fannie Mae data indicates that only four mortgage lenders were actively issuing VantageScore loans. Pulte’s directive to open adoption to all lenders would therefore represent a significant broadening of the program.
Mortgage exposure: In 2025, Mortgages represented ~21% of EFX’s revenues, with mortgage credit reports and mortgage solutions collectively accounting for ~11% of total revenues, or 32% of USIS revenues. For TRU, mortgage exposure stood at ~13% of total revenues, representing ~35% of US Financial Services revenues. EXPN has comparatively limited exposure at ~4% of total revenues.
Background. FHFA Director Bill Pulte announced last night that effective immediately, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been instructed to approve all lenders to use VantageScore as an eligible credit scoring system. The directive follows a successful initial rollout in which 50 lenders delivered loans using VantageScore under the program.
In a separate post, Pulte stated that EFX, TRU, and EXPN are overcharging American consumers and that he is seriously considering a bi-merge credit pull requirement for conforming loans, as well as structural reforms.
Fair Isaac crashed as much as 21%, its sharpest intraday decline since March 2020 if losses sustain through close. Equifax and TransUnion each tumbled as much as 11%.
Separately, TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg told clients that Pulte’s attack on mortgage-related costs could support the administration’s affordability message ahead of the midterm elections this fall.
END
Oh Look, Yet Another Church Up In Flames…
Monday, Sep 07, 2026 – 07:20 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,
Another week, another historic church reduced to smoke, rubble. The former Saint Agnes Church on Martha Avenue in Toledo, Ohio went up early Saturday morning. The 116-year-old landmark’s steeple came down. The roof burned out. Nearby homes were evacuated. Once again the cause is listed as currently unknown.
Toledo Fire & Rescue was called around 6:30 a.m. Saturday after reports of heavy black smoke pouring from the roof of the vacant church in the Five Points neighborhood. Crews arrived to find the building already heavily engulfed.
Officials warned of collapse risk and alerted people in surrounding homes. The steeple later fell. By Saturday afternoon excavators were tearing the ruined structure down.
Saint Agnes opened in 1910. It was among 29 parishes closed or merged by the Roman Catholic Diocese of Toledo in 2005. The parochial school shut the same year. The diocese no longer owns the property. A charter school now occupies the old school building next door and reported only minor smoke, water, and a cracked window.
One neighbor told local television: “About 6:45 we heard fire trucks and I peeked out my window and it literally looked like the whole street was on fire.”
Investigators in Toledo have not named a suspect, a motive, or even a cause. Vacant churches do burn by accident. They also burn because someone wants them gone. The public is asked, week after week, to accept “unknown” as the last word while the buildings keep falling.
In the U.S. hostility against churches has jumped to hundreds of incidents a year – vandalism, arson or fires of uncertain origin, gun incidents, bomb threats.
Churches are not supposed to be disposable scenery. They are the markers of the civilisation that built the towns around them. When those markers keep mysteriously burning to the ground what does that say about our civilisation?
This is now happening every week all over the world.
Historic London Church BURNS To The Ground Amid SILENCE From Government
ANOTHER Historic UK Church TORCHED; Cause “Unknown”
END
KING NEWS
| The King Report September 8, 2026 Issue 7821 | Independent View of the News |
| Team Trump crafted 162k NFP (58k expected) for August by boosting the seasonal adjustment to 195k from 48k in August 2025! Where are Street experts, economists, and the fin media on this? August 2025 NFP NSA 158,424k adjusted to 158,472k. The BLS took 158,880k Not Seasonally Adjusted NFP and massaged it to 159,075k seasonally adjusted NFP for August 2026! https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm Year/year NFP NSA for August +456k; Seasonally Adjusted +603k. They should be equal! August NFP +162k, +58k consensus; Mfg.+16km. +5k exp, Wages 0.3% m/m & 3.0% y/y, Rate 4.1% Diesel fuel prices jumped to a record high on Friday. Trump demands Fed board ‘get smart’ and lower interest rates after stronger-than-expected jobs report “LOWER THE RATE OR I’LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT, which the U.S. Supreme Court, in its ridiculous and very costly Tariff decision, strongly acknowledged ‘the President’ has an absolute right to do.”… “IT’S BETTER THAN TARIFFS!” Trump went on. “The Fed Board, with its great new leader, must get smart – BE PATRIOTS for a change. High interest rates put the U.S.A. at a very unfair disadvantage, and I won’t allow that to happen!”… https://trib.al/vWdOIpl Ironically, Trump has increased the odds of a Fed rate hike by petulantly threatening the Fed (and creating bogus Aug NFPs). If the August PPI and CPI reports later this week are not great, the Fed will look like Trump hand puppets and COWARDS if they do NOT hike rates. Trump has been at war with the Fed, and a critical mass of Fed officials will exact revenge when the chance appears. More irony: Jerome Powell might be the swing vote to hike rates at the September FOMC! The BLS: Household Survey Data – The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent in August, and the number of unemployed people changed little at 7.0 million. Both measures changed little over the year… The labor force participation rate edged up to 61.6 percent in August but is down by 0.5 percentage point since January. The employment-population ratio, at 59.1 percent, changed little over the month and since January. The number of people employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 414,000 to 4.4 million in August. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-8.)… Establishment Survey: Employment in food services and drinking places +59,000… Local government education added 42,000… health care… +13,000… home health care services (+11,000) and hospitals (+8,000)… Information employment declined by 23,000… job losses occurred in computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting, and related services (-8,000), in publishing industries (-7,000), and in broadcasting and content providers (-5,000). Construction employment changed little in August (+22,000). Employment in nonresidential specialty trade contractors continued to trend up (+8,000), similar to the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+6,000). In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $37.75. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.1 percent. In August, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 11 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $32.53. (See tables B-3 and B-8.) The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours in August. In manufacturing, the average workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.5 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 3.1 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained at 33.8 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.) The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised up by 11,000, from +20,000 to +31,000, and the change for July was revised up by 44,000, from -23,000 to +21,000. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm The Household Survey is whacky: Employed +569k; Unemployed +115k; Civilian Labor Force +683k, Not in Labor Force -551k https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm @LayoffAI: 98 OF 100 NEW AMERICAN JOBS IN AUGUST WENT TO WOMEN The economy added 162,000 jobs. Women took 158,000. Men took 4,000. Past 12 months: women +870K, men -1.5M. (How is this possible?) Who is compiling this stuff?) https://x.com/LayoffAI/status/2096250047679574269 @DianeSwonk: Summer heatwave nudged Fed’s hand Payroll employment surprised to the upside with 163K payrolls. Public sector education jobs returned after plummeting in July. That is a seasonal quirk. Federal payrolls continued to shed jobs and are hovering at 1966 lows… The effects of the loss in the Temporary Protected Status for Haitian workers now look like they showed up in June and July when 75K jobs were shed in leisure & hospitality. We saw a rebound of 65K in August, despite a pull back on discretionary spending by low- and middle-income households reported by the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book for August. Pockets of labor shortages & complaints about wage pressures showed up as well. Sure enough, wages in the sector accelerated during the month. There was a marked slowdown in healthcare & social assistance, despite underlying demand from an aging population – the first baby boomers turned 80 this year. Cuts to Medicaid at the state level and another cliff in fiscal 2026 makes it harder for those employers to bid up wages and replace workers lost to expiration of TPS for Haitians. The next cliff on TPS workers is hit in early October for Venezuelan workers… Fed’s Hammack: Fed policy not restrictive and inflation is too high Fed’s Hammack: Local contacts indicate time to raise rates to curb inflation @NYFedResearch: GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN PRESSURE INDEX The GSCPI rose to 1.06 in August, up from 0.94 in July. (revised up from an initial reading of 0.79). https://nyfed.org/gscpi Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign fund proposes deep cuts to US Treasury holdings ($215B as of 6/26) Changes would mean cutting nearly $80 billion from UST holdings (Bessent, get your buy tix ready!) https://www.reuters.com/business/norways-2-trillion-sovereign-fund-proposes-deep-cuts-us-treasury-holdings-2026-09-04/ @htsfhickey on Friday: Apple down $8 on reports this morning of severe supply shortfalls for their new foldable phones due to manufacturing hiccups. HTS subs read this in the latest HTS letter released (via email) two days ago: “Apple hasn’t been able to make enough of the new foldable phones – and that’s a big issue.” Also mentioned in the letter – Apple’s hardware margin problem due to spiking memory costs, the sharp decline in Apple’s (high margin) App Store revenue growth, long-time App Store executive Phil Schiller’s exit from that position (not a coincidence, I believe). Most of these (margin issues, App Store problems, foldable production trouble) are not new – they’ve just been ignored by the Appleholic investors (and analysts)… But now we’re just days from the big product announcements and in the final month of what may be a very tough quarter (and quarters ahead) for Apple. Time to abandon ship? Axios: Scoop: Trump administration drafting post-war Middle East plan The Trump administration is working on a post-war strategy focused on a regional effort to contain Iran and expand normalization of relations between Israel and its neighbors… https://www.axios.com/2026/09/04/trump-middle-east-iran-post-war-strategy The S&P 500 Index opened at a session high of 7750.19. This was ‘dumb money’ buying. The index rolled over and sank to a session low of 7706.18 at 11:02 ET. After a bounce to 7727.60 at 12:54 ET, the S&P 500 Index rolled over and went inert, as expected for a Friday afternoon pre-Labor Day Weekend. @realDonaldTrump on Friday 12:30 ET: How crazy is this? We just got GREAT Numbers on Jobs, the Market should go UP, because our Credit and Economy are better but, as always, for the past 25 years, the Stock Market goes DOWN, because we’re living under False Reality that if things are good, you’ve got to “KILL IT” because of a “fear” of Inflation. It should be the opposite and always was until 25 years ago. If we stay with this Theory, we will never be able to have the True Economic Greatness for our Country that it deserves, because every time we do well, the stupid people want to immediately stop this Great Upward Momentum. GROWTH DOES NOT CAUSE INFLATION! I knew this morning as soon as I looked at these fantastic Job Numbers that the Market would go down when it should be going UP like a Rocketship. We should be doing GDP of 15 and 20%, not 2, 3, and 4%, and America should become Far Greater Financially than it is right now. Our Debt would be paid off, and all of these other things would happen. Remember, every point in the Interest Rate costs the U.S. 650 Billion Dollars a year. We should pay the Lowest Interest Rates in the World because we make everything run… USZs (December ‘Z’ is now the front month for debt futures) sank to a session low of 108 6/32, -16/32, on the 8:30 ET release of the August Employment Report. But USZs quickly rebounded by a requisite number of bond traders and pundits discovered that the August NFP are bogus. USZs rebounded to 108 31/32, +9/32 at 10:27 ET. They then rolled over and traded sideways into its close of 7718.60. At 13:30 ET, Oct WTI -$0.30, Oct Brent -$0.88, Oct Diesel -6.86c, Oct Gasoline +7.04c. Oct Diesel hit a new high of 4.6026c at 18:40 ET and then sank to a session low of 4.4338c at 9:54 ET. Some pundits and traders claimed manipulation occurred. Diesel rebounded sharply (4.5262c) and then traded sideways. BBG’s @lisaabramowicz1: US diesel prices have risen 23% in the last two months, to a new record high of $5.85 (at the pump). https://x.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/2095799868660892084 Hyperscaler and Nvidia debt issuance is about 70% of US Treasury debt issuance, per JPM. https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/2095899561562665233/photo/1 The US public is overwhelmingly opposed to hyperscaler data centers; and polls show this issue is hurting Trump with his faithful. But Trump is not only doubling down on building hyperscaler data centers, he is insulting those that oppose the centers. MSFT AI: A Heatmap News survey found 75% of Americans either somewhat or strongly oppose building a data center in their community… On Friday afternoon at an impromptu presser, Trump said US interest rates should be 1% or 0.5%. Trump: “Growth does not cause inflation; stupidity causes inflation.” (Like monster deficit spending?) https://x.com/wallstengine/status/2095949658128531825 Trump also said, “I don’t like to see opportunity wasted. Whoever wins with AI wins, and it’s between the U.S. and China. If you want to get rich as a state, you will want data centers…” (Put one on Mar-a-Lago!) https://x.com/wallstengine/status/2095951985732395334 President Trump told reporters that the US may hit Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain very soon https://reut.rs/3SLuquq Trump calls Iran conflict ‘small potatoes’ and defends Vance’s position that it’s not a ‘war’ https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-vance-war-23a45a2c45c048a9e894baeab89c7a2f Trump also said, “We have essentially taken over Iran…” https://www.facebook.com/newshour/videos/president-donald-trump-said-friday-that-he-calls-the-iran-war-a-military-conflic/1073837011724912/ Ex-semis, stocks ignored Trump’s late afternoon remarks/verbal intervention and limped into the close. Heat Map at NYSE close on Friday; https://unusualwhales.com/heatmaps?classic=1 Positive aspects of previous session Industrials +1.04%, Info Tech +0.23%, Utes +0.04%; DJTA +0.72%, Nas 100 +0.21%, SOX +3.37% MU +6.1%, SNDK +11.9%, AMD +4.69%, INTC + 4.51% on Trump’s shilling Negative aspects of previous session S&P -0.38%, DJIA -0.51%, Nasdaq -0.29% SP Cons Discr -1.26%, Health Care -1.04%, Energy -0.98%, Cons Staples -0.96%, Real Estate -0.85% Financials (-0.76%), Materials -0.42%; USZs were -1/32 at 16:20 ET. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Diesel prices fell moderately while oil rallied modestly and gasoline rallied sharply. The yen/$ fell modestly to 156.259 at 16:10 ET on Friday. Precious metals declined smartly. First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7724.97 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7750.19 (9:30 ET); 7706.12 (11:02 ET) CENTCOM Destroys 3 IRGC Oil Tankers After Iran Targets 2 U.S. Navy Warships U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces struck three Iranian crude oil carriers, Sept. 5, after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched ballistic missiles toward two U.S. Navy warships patrolling regional waters… https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2096231596449767452 Secretary of War @PeteHegseth: If Iran shoots at U.S. ships, we will destroy (and sink) their oil tankers… Iran’s oil tanker fleet is defenseless — Iran has no navy or air force. Our planes, ships & subs can strike them all, in @CENTCOM & @USPACOM Senior Iranian official to Al Jazeera ‘we are in an existential war with America’ Ghashghavi rejected a warning from US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth that any Iranian attack on US ships would be met with the destruction of Iran’s oil tanker fleet, which Hegseth described as “defenceless”, after strikes on Iran’s naval and air forces. “Would any rational person accept the claim that Iran’s naval and air forces have been eliminated?”… https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/9/5/iran-war-live-trump-says-us-may-target-irans-pickaxe-mountain-very-soon?update=4920634 Iran warns strikes against U.S. ships will be more severe if U.S. continues attacks on shipping That Iran targeted a U.S. aircraft carrier with a ballistic missile “indicates that Tehran is becoming increasingly willing to accept risks it previously sought to avoid, including directly threatening some of the most important U.S. military assets in the region,” Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said on X. https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-diesel-gas-prices-labor-day/#post-update-e057c6be @ariel_oseran: The IRGC says its navy attacked three oil tankers and three vessels linked to the U.S. in the Strait of Hormuz, in response to the targeting of three Iranian oil tankers. The IRGC warned all vessels in SoH to adhere to Tehran’s guidelines or be attacked. @FoxNews: Iran is raising the stakes around the Strait of Hormuz, warning ships they could face sanctions if they enter a new restricted exclusion zone outside the critical waterway. The announcement comes after the U.S. launched strikes on three Iranian oil tankers, which followed Iran firing ballistic missiles at two U.S. Navy warships. U.S. officials say commercial ships are still being escorted through the strait as more than 20 American warships maintain a blockade of Iranian ports. (But DJT says, the US controls the Strait!) @clashreport: Bessent: “The Financial Times… is anti-American; they are anti-business; they are anti-Western values. They are a features newspaper now, just like the Wall Street Journal. The Wall Street Journal isn’t a business paper. The only thing I read on them is book reviews.” (Both are globalists that detest Trump.) https://x.com/clashreport/status/2095891563729629204 @julie_kelly2: So states were sharing personal data with Mark Zuckerberg’s $400 million operation to identify unregistered voters ahead of 2020 election in apparent violation of federal law. More interesting findings in latest disclosures by DHS… https://x.com/julie_kelly2/status/2095894224784769484 @MichaelMOTTCM: The S&P 500 is up 10%+ for a fourth straight year. Only four runs have gone this long since 1940. (1942-45, 1949-1952, 1995-99, 2012-2014, 2019-2021, 2023-026) One made it to five. All ended the same way: a down year. Calendar declines: -12%, -7%, -10%, -1%, -19%. Peak to trough: -30%, -15%, -49%, -14%, -25%… https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/2096307649134403698 @macropaperr: Treasury has begun to inject liquidity into the financial system. The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has dropped about $120 Billion in the last 4 days. When TGA falls, liquidity flows into commercial banks, which boosts bank reserves and overall market liquidity. @gregrieben: The 10-year rolling returns on Treasuries is now -2%, the worst in 100 YEARS. https://x.com/gregrieben/status/2095863402141036837 @biancoresearch: Here’s the chart back to 1793, courtesy of Ed McQuarrie at Santa Clara. (BofA’s starts in 1936.) The past 10 years through this summer have been the worst since 1803. https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/2096729819472138571 @spectatorindex: Wheat prices are now up 43% over the past year. (Fed should cut rates!) Saudi Aramco’s Jizan Refinery Hit Again as Houthi Attacks Escalate (Monday) Saudi Aramco’s 400,000-barrel-per-day Jizan refinery was hit in a new attack Monday, threatening a major Red Sea refining hub while Saudi Arabia is moving more oil west to avoid the Strait of Hormuz… Oil prices were already climbing Monday after Iran proposed a new shipping corridor through Hormuz that Tehran says it would control, in addition to a restricted maritime zone requiring vessels to coordinate with Iran. (Oct WTI hit $92.83) https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Aramcos-Jizan-Refinery-Hit-Again-as-Houthi-Attacks-Escalate.html CNBC: Gasoline prices, over $4 per gallon (AAA: $4.15 nat’l avg), hit record high for Labor Day The previous record was $3.82, reached on Sept.3, 2012. Japan likely sold Treasurys to fund record yen intervention Tokyo’s holdings of foreign securities fell by $87.8 billion at the end of August from a month earlier, according to Finance Ministry reserve data released Monday. That decline was close to the scale of Japan’s recent intervention to support the yen… https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/09/07/markets/japan-treasuries-sell-for-yen/ On Monday, the yen/$ hit a 6-month high (154 and change) on intervention and intervention anticipation. Copper hit an all-time high $14,530+/ton on the LME. The Fed should cut rates! Trump on Monday: NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES! Their products aren’t good enough! Over 50% of their revenue comes from the United States — They live off American Buyers, American Companies, American Airports, and American Service — All while Canada blocks our GREAT American Banks, and Companies, throughout the U.S.A. They even blocked Gulfstream Aerospace from doing business in Canada — Completely unjust and unfair! That Era is OVER! If they want our Market, they must build here, and stop treating America like a “piggybank.” BUY AMERICAN. FLY ON AMERICAN AIRLINERS. ENJOY AMERICAN LIQUOR AND BEVERAGES. SAIL ON LAKE AMERICA. AMERICA FIRST Today – Traders want to play for the Monday Rally on the Tuesday after Labor Day but due to weekend event, there is selling on Monday night – despite an apparent yen/$ intervention. Watch gasoline! The day after Labor Day marks the official end to ‘Drive Season.’ Gasoline prices should fall – and diesel in concert. NB: You are trying to navigate markets and make prudent decisions when the markets are rigged and manipulated, directly and indirectly almost daily; and the US economic data is crafted for politics. The conundrum: The incessant manipulation via direct and verbal intervention is a clear indication that the powers-that-be see frightening problems in economic and financial systems. So, the investing and trading environment is fraught with extreme danger. The odds are low that rigging markets will resolve systemic and economic problems. But ‘they’ will not stop until ‘they’ lose control. This is precisely what occurred before and during the Great Financial Crisis 2008. However, without going full Cassadra, the monstrous difference between now and 2008 (and 2000, 1998, 1997, 1987, etc.) is that the bond market could be the trigger. In the noted financial crisis, investors fled stocks and manically bought bonds to hide. In recent years, investors and foreign nations have been fleeing US bonds and reinvesting those funds into stocks and gold. If bonds are the destroyer instead of the protector, what will happen? Expected Economic Data: Aug NFIB Business Optimism 99.8; Redbook for Sept 5 9.6% y/y; NY Fed Consumer 1-yr Inflation Expectations 3.6%; July Consumer Credit +$14.17B ESUs -8.50, NQUs -263.50, USUs +1/32, Oct WTI +$1.04, Oct Gas +1.0c, Yen/$ 153.74 at 20:02 ET. S&P 500 50-day MA: 7592; 100-day MA: 7474; 200-day MA: 7197 (S&P 500 Close 7718.60) DJIA 50-day MA: 52,945; 100-day MA: 51,585; 200-day MA: 49,858 (DJIA Close 53,414.25) (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party secured a historic and shocking victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, winning 43.8% of the vote to the conservative CDU’s 17.2%. BBC: The AfD is currently heading for 39 seats in the 83-seat state parliament – three short of an outright majority. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy4zejgz3z9o Trump’s Republicans are fleeing his $25,000 midterm convention (Sept 9-10) … as members privately mutter it’s a ‘waste of time’ and majority STILL haven’t confirmed A Politico survey of more than 70 Republican candidates and members found that 45 either do not plan to attend or are still weighing whether to go. Republican strategist David Kochel told the Daily Mail that he would advise candidates in battleground states such as Iowa to stay focused on their home turf. ‘If I were advising an Iowa candidate, I would tell them to keep it local,’ Kochel said. He described the convention as appearing to be ‘a made-for-TV event’, arguing that only a small share of Iowa voters would pay attention. ‘The voters they need to win over aren’t going to be paying attention to that convention,’ he said… Asked whether any speakers had been confirmed, RNC press secretary Natalie Baldassarre directed the Daily Mail to the GOP’s convention website — which lists an itinerary but no lineup. The first night is expected to focus on tax relief, health care costs, the border, trade and domestic manufacturing, with workers featured prominently. The second covers no tax on tips, overtime and Social Security, plus prescription drug prices. The program also includes a tribute to Charlie Kirk and a segment marking the 25th anniversary of 9/11 with families of first responders… Missing from the program: any major segment on foreign policy or the war in Iran — one of the heaviest issues facing the administration. https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16099287/Trumps-Republicans-fleeing-midterm-convention-members.html @OANN: President Trump is hyping up the upcoming Republican midterm convention in Dallas, Texas, calling it “the greatest rally of them all.” The president says he’ll speak on the first night and stick around for the music on night two. https://x.com/OANN/status/2096247222132510902 Trump Plans to Buy Midterm Ads About His Own Record The president has come up with a simple plan to win the election: more Trump. Republican strategists are concerned about Trump’s low approval ratings and voter anxiety about the economy. One person familiar with the Oval Office strategy meeting put it this way: “When the issues that you typically campaign on don’t move voters—or voters are pissed off at you about those issues—the question becomes: What do you campaign on?”… But Trump himself has rejected that approach. House and Senate Democrats, the president noted during the meeting, will make their fall campaigns a referendum on him. His advisers told him that the poor polling reflects the fact that the voting public still does not know about many of his accomplishments… The solution Trump settled on, according to three people familiar with the meeting, was to lean into the Democratic strategy of focusing on himself. The president ordered a series of television advertisements about his own record that will serve as a backdrop to the hundreds of individual House and Senate contests… Polls show that voters aren’t just anxious about inflation; they are frustrated with Trump’s war of choice with Iran and concerned about government corruption. Before Trump’s first midterm election as president, in 2018, the Pew Research Center found that 51 percent of the country believed that the economy was doing well, including 13 percent who described the economy as excellent. By July of this year, only 22 percent felt that the economy was doing well, and only 3 percent described it as excellent. Trump’s economic approval rating hovered at about 50 percent in 2018 public polls. Most polls this year show that his standing has fallen into the 30s… Trump has argued that he can drive turnout in those races by making himself the center of the conversation… (Which party’s voters will Trump drive to the polls?) https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/2026/08/trump-midterms-ads-maga/688409/ Trump to headline both nights of GOP convention in Dallas, leans into Texas Senate race with cash Trump’s cash-flush super PAC, MAGA Inc., sent $10 million to help Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton win the U.S. Senate seat there. (The folly of DJT using the convention to highlight the good things that he has done: He incessantly brags about things, real and imaginary, that he has done!) https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/trump-headline-both-nights-gop-convention-dallas-leans-texas-senate-race @FT: Top Republicans are worried that Donald Trump is undermining their prospects in the midterm elections, as he brushes off voter concerns over the Iran war, inflation and AI data centres while promoting himself on the campaign trail. https://ft.trib.al/wkamEAa Trump made a TV scheduling mistake ‘like nothing ever seen before’ by holding his Midterm Convention on Wednesday and Thursday nights. The NFL kicks off its season on Wednesday night, from Australia, with the teams from the Super Bowl: Pats and Seahawks. On Thursday night, the SF 49ers play the LA Rams in a game streamed on Netflix. @unusual_whales Sep 4 BREAKING: The Trump administration officially imposed a 100% tariff on foreign-made drones, per NYT. The president’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., joined Unusual Machines’, a US drone company, advisory board in November 2024. Trump Jr. was awarded 200,000 shares in the company for joining the board, and a month before that he had purchased 66,000 shares and 66,000 warrants in a private placement. Under the order, drones weighing more than 25 kilograms or equipped with thermal imaging capability will face a 100% tariff. Drones under that weight threshold will face a 25% tariff. Trump Imposes 100% Tariff on Foreign Drones; Trump Jr. Tied to UMAC Under the order, drones weighing more than 25 kilograms or equipped with thermal imaging capability will face a 100% tariff. Drones under that weight threshold will face a 25% tariff… The tariffs come as the president’s sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, have been expanding their portfolios by investing in various drone companies, with Donald Jr. serving as an investor in drone maker Unusual Machines and sitting on the company’s advisory board. Trump Jr. joined the UMAC advisory board back in November 2024. Unusual Machines stock soared over 100% on the day of that announcement. Unusual Machines popped 24.2%, while Red Cat rallied 8.8%. Aerovironment added 1.3% and Kratos climbed 2.9%. For 2027, the Trump administration is asking for a record $1.5 trillion defense budget, and as part of that budget the Department of Defense is looking for a historic $75 billion for drones. https://unusualwhales.com/news/trump-100-percent-tariff-foreign-drones-umac U.S. Used Promise of Nvidia Chips to Broker Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal – WSJ Negotiators offered access to advanced AI hardware to help secure a preliminary agreement ending decades of conflict @_The_Prophet__: This is one of the clearest signs yet that compute has become statecraft. If the report is accurate, the U.S. just used access to Nvidia chips the way great powers historically used oil, weapons, trade access, development finance, or security guarantees. That is a phase change. Frontier compute is becoming something governments can grant, restrict, ration, or weaponize in negotiations because it increasingly determines a country’s future productive and military capacity… The deeper U.S. advantage here is extraordinary. America does not have to physically own every chip. It controls enough of the upstream architecture around Nvidia, semiconductor tooling, cloud infrastructure, export licensing, and advanced AI ecosystems that permission itself has value. That means diplomacy begins acquiring a new bargaining chip: align with us and gain access to intelligence infrastructure… There is also a huge corporate implication. Nvidia increasingly looks less like a normal semiconductor company and more like strategic infrastructure embedded inside American foreign policy. That raises its geopolitical importance dramatically, while also making it increasingly dependent on state permission and strategic priorities… And once countries are willing to alter diplomatic behavior partly to gain access to that capacity, the AI race has officially escaped Silicon Valley. It has entered the architecture of power. https://x.com/_The_Prophet__/status/2096397861076566092 @thetect0nic: Minicomputers Made by Nvidia Are Powering Moscow’s A.I. Drones That Selects Its Own Target Without A Human Operator A Russian drone guided entirely by artificial intelligence, with no human in the loop for final targeting, killed three civilians in Zaporizhzhia on July 6. This is believed to be the first documented case of an AI system alone choosing who dies in the Russia-Ukraine war. According to Ukrainian investigators and experts cited by the @nytimes, the drone was programmed to reach a gas station area, but once there, its onboard AI independently searched for the specific object it had been trained to attack. The evidence recovered from the wreckage points to something significant: a Nvidia Jetson Orin computer running onboard the drone. Nvidia confirmed to the NYT that photographs of the recovered module showed a Jetson Orin, a commercially available edge-AI computer costing only hundreds of dollars. These modules are designed to run AI locally. That means the drone can process camera imagery and make decisions onboard, without continuously communicating with an operator. No radio link also means one of Ukraine’s most important defenses – electronic warfare – becomes far less useful… Former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov told the NYT that Ukraine had tested a fully autonomous AI system in Russian-occupied Crimea, targeting fuel-storage facilities and military equipment… The significance therefore goes far beyond one Russian drone. Both sides are moving toward weapons capable of navigating, recognizing objects and completing attacks without a continuous human link. Autonomous drones don’t need a pilot for every aircraft. They don’t need an uninterrupted radio connection. Electronic warfare becomes harder. And inexpensive commercial computing means autonomy can potentially be deployed at enormous scale. https://x.com/thetect0nic/status/2091928420426932447 US peace envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on Sunday as the Trump administration renewed its push to end Russia’s four-and-a-half-year war in Ukraine…Kushner and Witkoff traveled from Moscow, where they held three hours of talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday but did not appear to secure a breakthrough in the conflict… https://trib.al/oXqIz17 @jsolomonReports: The reports that Maria Bartiromo was “fired“ are not true. She remains under contract with Fox News and receiving her pay until 2029. She has been removed from air and won’t return. But she continues to remain with Fox at present under the pay or play provision of a contract, which is common in television. Trump posts AI image depicting himself stock trading in Oval Office: ‘I do this for our country‘ “I do this for our Country, not myself. I’ve made Hundreds of Billions of Dollars on Stocks, and many other type Holdings, for the U.S.A., not myself, and all I do is get criticized by the Radical Left Dumocrats. Very unfair, but what can you do!” he wrote on Truth Social. Some Democrats have argued that any individual stock trading ban that Congress passes for lawmakers should be applicable to the president and vice president as well. https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/trump-posts-ai-photo-depicting-himself-stock-trading-oval-office-i-do-our @foxnewspolitics1h: The White House reposted Trump’s Truth Social image showing New Mexico rebranded as ‘America’ — the word ‘Mexico’ crossed out in red and replaced on a map of the state. No explanation was given. No formal policy proposal was announced. But the post follows a pattern: Trump has already signed executive orders renaming Lake Ontario to ‘Lake America’ and the Gulf of Mexico to the ‘Gulf of America’ for federal use. Google and Apple later updated their maps accordingly. @WhiteHouse: In brightest day, in blackest night, no evil shall escape my sight. Let those who worship evil’s might beware my power… Green Lantern’s light! (Apparently the WH staff has little to do. DJT as Green Lantern video) https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/2096764958713274657 CNBC: The 80-year-old commander in chief spent more than 10 hours on Sunday posting dozens of apparently AI-generated images on his social media platform. The posts included a depiction of Iran’s defeat, Trump on horseback with George Washington, and an apparently AI-generated image of Robert De Niro holding a shirt that read, “Trump is my president.”… https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/07/trump-truth-social-ai-images-posting-spree.html?taid=23e923c4-1d87-4fb5-816f-abe879731fa0 President Trump debuts new brown hairdo – and people are shocked https://trib.al/39YpbfP Two factors could save the GOP in the Midterm Elections: Trump and GOP are flush with cash while the Dems have little cash; and Dems are fielding so many far left/flaming socialists. Zero Hedge: Maria Bartiromo was not fired for pushing claims about the 2020 election – she was fired for revealing that Fox had told its own staff not to talk about it… Puck’s Dylan Byers reported that Bartiromo took a screenshot of that guidance and sent it to senior White House officials, which Fox executives learned of after receiving a call from the White House… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/call-got-maria-bartiromo-fired-came-white-house @Geiger_Capital They don’t teach that from 1920-1970, the US had severely restricted immigration… In those 50 years we won WW2, became a global economic and military superpower, created a booming economy, a thriving middle class and a strong common culture. The America everyone talks about. https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/2096605628735074412 @EYakoby: Islamist in Canada: “I don’t consider myself Canadian, Canada is a racist colonialist project like Israel; they will be destroyed within 25 years.” Canada is falling. https://x.com/EYakoby/status/2096367461234884897 @Handre: Sixty-two years and $22 trillion later, the U.S. poverty rate sits at roughly 11 percent, almost identical to where Lyndon Johnson found it in 1964. The government ran the most expensive social experiment in human history and produced nothing measurable. Bureaucracies perpetuate themselves, and this policy worked exactly as designed. @CollinRugg: US Navy SEAL divers spent four months clearing Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Financial Times. SEAL divers worked at night from inflatable-hulled boats with help from underwater crafts to remove the mines. “That is usually followed up by a navy diver who’s got to get in the water and approach the mine, and then put a charge on it and destroy it,” said retired US Navy captain Bill Hamblet to the outlet… | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
CALIFORNIA
Nick Shirley Sues California Over ‘Stop Nick Shirley Act’
Sunday, Sep 06, 2026 – 08:45 PM
Independent investigative journalist Nick Shirley spent the better part of a year investigating alleged fraud at nonprofits accused of diverting taxpayer funds meant for immigrant services. California responded by passing a law that makes it harder to look at those nonprofits at all. Now he is suing to have that law thrown out.
Shirley filed a federal lawsuit against the state of California on September 4, arguing that Assembly Bill 2624, nicknamed the Stop Nick Shirley Act, violates his First Amendment rights by restricting his ability to investigate and report on immigration-related service organizations. Critics gave the bill a blunter name months ago.
Gov. Gavin Newsom signed AB 2624 last month. The law, which doesn’t take effect until October 1, 2027, expands California’s existing Safe at Home program, a shield the state originally built for domestic violence survivors, to cover nonprofit employees who help people navigate the immigration system.
Anyone who distributes information or images of a covered worker under circumstances the law defines as inciting violence or threats faces a penalty of $4,000.
“Now, in a world where we all want more transparency and not less, it is more critical than ever that we do not just sit back and do nothing,” Shirley asked in a video posted to X announcing the lawsuit.
“That is why I am filing this lawsuit against the State of California. Because why would they create a law that pushes for less transparency when all we want is more transparency, especially when it comes to our tax dollars being defrauded? And why specifically make immigration support service providers a protected class inside of California?”
Under the law, a worker at a covered organization, or an entity acting on their behalf, can submit a written demand blocking publication of certain identifying information about them.
Shirley and other critics say that provision hands anyone under scrutiny a built-in kill switch for the story, and thus any accountability for fraud.
According to the bill’s language, “A program participant or an individual entity or organization authorized to act on their behalf may make a written demand to a person, business or association to not publicly post or publicly display, disclose, or distribute on the internet the personal information or image of the program participant,” he said, reading from the statute.
“California has decided to push for less transparency and create laws that penalize citizens and journalists for looking into potential fraud inside ‘immigration support services providers,'” Shirley wrote in the X post announcing the suit.
Shirley traces the bill’s origin to January 31, when he announced that he was in California investigating alleged fraud.
Days later, Newsom said the San Diego Somali community felt “under siege” from what he called “right-wing provocateurs,” a comment Shirley says was about him. On February 5, California Attorney General Rob Bonta held a news conference dismissing the fraud allegations, calling them “reckless, false, outrageous, and ridiculous.”
Fifteen days later, Assemblywoman Mia Bonta, who happens to be married to the attorney general, introduced AB 2624.
“They needed the Stop Nick Shirley Act, AB 2624, to protect the fraud and stop people from exposing these locations inside of immigration support providers,” he said.
The bill’s text defines immigration support service providers broadly enough to include legal services, healthcare, and nonprofits generally, and one of the organizations that helped push the legislation has itself pulled in tens of millions of taxpayer dollars for immigration legal work in the state. Shirley’s history with this beat predates the California fight.
Shirley’s lawsuit does not seek monetary damages.
“We’re not suing for a single dollar,” he explained. “We’re suing simply on the fact that they’re taking away your First Amendment, right with this new law. In fact, I might spend months, I might spend years fighting this lawsuit for so long, think about it for so long. These corrupt politicians have been able to push and shove us around and receive no consequences for their actions.”
END
CALIFORNIA
California Police Seize 2,400 Stolen Catalytic Converters Worth $4.3 Million
Sunday, Sep 06, 2026 – 07:35 PM
A three-month investigation into widespread catalytic converter thefts in Southern California culminated Thursday with five arrests and the recovery of an enormous cache of allegedly stolen auto parts, according to KTLA.
Law enforcement agencies executed several search warrants across Los Angeles and Orange counties, uncovering roughly 2,400 catalytic converters with an estimated value of $4.3 million. Images released after the raids show converters packed into large containers and stacked throughout a warehouse allegedly connected to the operation.
Investigators believe the suspects were part of a broader system for handling stolen converters rather than simply carrying out individual thefts. Authorities say the investigation connected thefts reported across several northern Orange County communities to an organized operation that collected, stripped, transferred and purchased the stolen equipment.
KTLA writes that the searches also turned up more than $105,000 in cash, two firearms that authorities said were not registered and several boxes containing precious metals. Catalytic converters are attractive to thieves because they contain valuable metals that can be extracted and resold.
The operation brought together several agencies, including the Orange and Los Angeles county sheriff’s departments, California DMV investigators, state insurance investigators and the Orange County District Attorney’s Office. Authorities said the scale of the seizure was the product of months of coordinated investigative work.
Following the arrests, officials encouraged vehicle owners to make their cars harder targets by parking in garages or well-lit locations when possible. They also recommended catalytic converter protection devices and having identifying information etched onto vulnerable vehicle components to make stolen parts more difficult to resell.
END
NEW YORK CITY
Mamdani Turns City Hall Into A Socialist Union-Organizing-Machine
Tuesday, Sep 08, 2026 – 02:40 PM
New York City has established a government office to assist worker in unionizing, following an executive order announced by Mayor Zohran Mamdani on Labor Day. The Mayor’s Office of Worker Power aims to help workers “get informed, connected and organized” to facilitate union formation. City Hall has not yet released information on the office’s budget or staffing levels, both of which are important considerations when creating a new government entity.
“Every day, working New Yorkers show up, do their jobs, and keep this city running. Too often, they have no say in the conditions they work under,” Mamdani said in a statement.
“The Mayor’s Office of Worker Power will make sure workers have a seat at the table before exploitation becomes a crisis and violations become routine. We’re connecting workers to their rights, to each other and to the organizations ready to stand with them. Because when workers have power, this city works better for everyone.”
The office’s stated functions include holding hearings on workplace issues, drafting policy proposals based on employee testimony, distributing information about workers’ rights, and connecting employees with outside groups equipped to help them organize.
Tony Perlstein, a former dockworker, union organizer, and deputy director of communications for the Center for Popular Democracy, will run the office. He will report to Deputy Mayor for Economic Justice Julie Su.
“This office allows us to get ahead of exploitation instead of simply responding to it,” Su said in a statement.
“By building relationships with workers, unions and worker centers, we can understand what is happening on the ground and act before problems become crises.”
The City Reporter, which broke the story, said the office follows the blueprint of the Emergency Workplace Organizing Committee, a joint project of the Democratic Socialists of America and United Electrical Workers.
Critics have zeroed in on a provision in the executive order that goes well beyond hearings and pamphlets. It directs city agencies, including the Department of Consumer and Worker Protection, the Taxi and Limousine Commission, and the Commission on Human Rights, to develop “directed investigation procedures” for workplace violations. These agencies used to wait for a complaint before opening a case. Under the new order, they can target businesses that employ large numbers of low-wage workers, carry a documented history of labor violations, or show other signs the city considers evidence of poor compliance, whether or not anyone has filed a complaint against them.
And that has plenty of people concerned.
“It’s remarkable that the Mamdani administration conflates being forced to pay a union with being protected from exploitation,” Manhattan Institute fellow Ken Girardin said. “The city shouldn’t be putting its thumb on the scale to squeeze more dues out of workers.”
Ashley Ranslow, New York State director for the National Federation of Independent Businesses, called the office “deeply concerning.”
“Federal laws already protect workers rights to organize,” Ranslow said.
Her larger worry concerns what proactive enforcement looks like in practice: small businesses facing scrutiny, she said, “even if there are no complaints filed against them.”
Ranslow argued City Hall has inserted itself into a relationship that was never its business. “City government should not be interfering with a process that is between employees and the employer,” she said. “Small businesses should be supported, especially in a place like New York City where it’s unaffordable to keep the doors open and lights on, instead of having the deck stacked against them.”
A recent CUNY report has discovered that the level of unionization in the city is more than twice the national average, revealing the office to be nothing more than a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist, a structure designed to create grievances even though the labor market has already clearly shifted in favor of organized labor.
END
GREG HUNTER…INTERVIEWING PETER MCCULLOUGH
CV19 Vax Victims Need Testing & Treatment – Dr. Peter McCullough
By Greg Hunter On September 5, 2026 In Political Analysis45 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Early last year, Dr. Peter McCullough, a renowned cardiologist, was still pushing “CV19 Vax Injury & Cancer Treatments.” Dr. McCullough has been fighting the government CV19 vax propaganda from the beginning. Dr. McCullough is now out with new warnings about treatment needed for the CV19 bioweapon vax backed by actual science that proves the CV19 vax causes cancer, extreme heart problems, autoimmune disease and blood clots, just to name a few disastrous outcomes caused by the CV19 vax. There is plenty of fresh proof pouring out about the bioweapon CV19 shots like this post from Ed Dowd a few weeks ago that says “US Disabilities Hit an All-Time High of 37 Million in July: UP 23% Since Feb 2021.” (That’s an additional 7 million people hurt by the CV19 injections.) Or, there is this new study that says “. . . mRNA “VACCINES” COULD INDUCE OR ACCELERATE CANCER VIA 35 DISTINCT MECHANISMS.” Keep in mind that Dolly Parton just died of cancer after just a few days in the hospital, and, yes, she took the CV19 shots. We will get into more about that in a minute. There is no argument that the CV19 so-called “vaccines” are a total disaster for the 270 million Americans who took them. Dr. McCullough says, “It is my opinion that this Covid Vaccine campaign has been a total debacle. It’s led to increased mortality, fatal Covid19 syndromes, increases of people on the rolls of disability, and there is not a single government in the world right now that will recognize this.”
The lies surrounding Covid and the CV19 injections are huge. We were told the Covid virus came from a wet market in China—LIE. We were told don’t treat yourself with Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine because it does not work—LIE. We were told that the CV19 vax was “Safe and Effective”—LIE. The shots were, in fact, gene editing that forces the body to produce damaging spike proteins for a very long time. How long? We don’t know. Now, the LIE is one of omission, and that is most people, whether you have taken the CV19 injections or not, need testing and treatment. Dr. McCullough says, “The problem is you cannot shut off the genetic code, and the body should not be producing foreign proteins. So, once it is injected into the body, we can’t get rid of it and we can’t shut it off. We have published a study that shows the Messinger RNA (mRNA) is in the body, in the bloodstream, circulating at least three and a half years after you take these shots.”
Dr. McCullough contends you need a simple test to see if you need treatment to remove mRNA producing spike proteins. Dr. McCullough says, “You can go to Labcorp and order the “Covid Antibody Test.” You pay $69, and go into Labcorp and get your test. . .. You should go and check. You should be below 1,000. I just finished treating a girl, and she was 23,000 for antibodies. She was loaded from taking the Pfizer vaccines. Most people can self-handle this with the Ultimate Spike Detox at The Wellness Company. . .. We have come other multi-ingredient high dose botanicals that can help people get through this Occasionally, I have to prescribe prescription drugs like Ivermectin . . . Hydroxychloroquine . . . and sometimes additional drugs. People need treatment to get better; otherwise, they will end up on disability.”
As far as the death of Dolly Parton, McCullough says, “Sadly, she believed in the CV19 vaccines as an article of faith. What happened was she said she developed an autoimmune problem shortly afterwards. Many other people developed autoimmune problems. Megyn Kelly developed vaccine induced autoimmunity. . .. So, Dolly had this autoimmune problem. . .. She also developed turbo cancer, and it moved so quickly nothing could be done.”
In closing, Dr. McCullough says, “Do not get any CV19 Vaccines” (or mRNA shots).
There is much more in the 28-minute interview.
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Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he interviews top cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough, who is Chief Science Officer of The Wellness Company. Dr. McCullough has new information on CV19 vax injury testing and treatment that they are keeping from the public for 9.5.26.
After the Interview:
To find out more about The Wellness Company and their many products, click here.
There is a 15% site wide discount for Labor Day Weekend. You can also call for information and help finding products at 800-758-1584.
For Dr. McCullough’s Substack called “Focal Points,” click here.
harveyorganblog.com 
