EXCHANGE: COMEX
SEPT 4
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT./2026: 44 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 4400 OZ or 0.1358 TONNES
total notices so far: 2555 contracts FOR 25,500 OZ OR 7.947 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 49 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.245 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5032 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 25.160 million oz
GLD
SEPT: INITIAL STANDING: 24.172 MILLION OZ//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S FAIR 29 CONTRACT OR 145,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 27.355 MILLION OZ//
SEPT: INITIAL STANDING 8.756 MILLION OZ//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 45,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 27.355 MILLION OZ
GOLD COMEX OUTLINE;
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 345 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 34,500 OZ/ (1.073 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 345 CONTRACTS OR 34500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 24.635 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES OF GOLD.
JUNE; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 64.496 TONNES.(CME CORRECTED) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.0186 TONNES/NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRSST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F 0.0062 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 40.824TONNES
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 5TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 5 CONTRACTS FOR 500 OZ OR 0.0155 TONNESS TO OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 200 CONTRACTS OR 20,000 OZ OR 6.220 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.7045 TONNES TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.552 TONNES TO OUR FIRST 0.0715 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.9688 AND THEN ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 39 CONTRACTS FOR 3,900 OZ OR 0.1213 TONNES//STANDING THUS ADVANCES TO 67.2441 TONNES
SEPT: INITIAL STANDING: 8.756 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT OR 100 OZ QUEUE JUMP (.00311 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SECOND 1000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALS: 6.2208 TONNES// // NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 15.465 TONNES..
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS IN GOLD ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4703 CONTRACTS WITH 2823 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 1880 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.
THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4703 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED AND CRIMINAL 1105 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON .
GOLD PRICE ROSE BY $141,55
STANDING FOR THE LAST 8 MONTHS JANUARY TO AUGUST:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW FINAL STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 345 CONTRACTS/34,500 OZ// 1.073 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MAY// 5 OCCASIONS: 24.635 TONNES///NEW FINAL STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER JUMP OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING 127.03 TONNES//FINAL
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0000 TONNES/ PLUS 0.0062 TONNES EX FOR RISK///NEW STANDING FOR GOLD REMAINS AT 40.824TONNES.
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST 0.0715 TONNES EXCHANGE TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 1.552 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF: 1.7045//TOTAL FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK 3.3312 TONNES TO OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 200 CONTRACTS FOR 0.6220 TONNES/TO OUR 5TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.0155 TONNES//TOTALL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.9688 TONNES TO OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.1213 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.2441 TONNES
SEPT: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.756 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 100 OZ QUEUE JUMP (.00311 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SECOND 1000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK//100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 6.2208 TONNES// NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 15/465 TONNES.
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
YEAR 2026:
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 118.430 TONNES
JUNE: 142.053 TONNES
JULY: 163.82 TONNES
AUGUST: 151.107 TONNES
SEPT: 26.830 TONNES
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SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.97 PTS OR 0.30%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 447.69 PTS OR 1.78%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 819.52 PTS OR 1.28%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.43%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7109
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7089 Oil DOWN TO 90.72 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 95.12 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7109 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7089 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMITS
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG 402 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 104,032
EFP ISSUANCE 440 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 440 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 402 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 440 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OF 842 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $2.22
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 4.210 MILLION PAPER OZ
STANDING SEPT AT 27.355 MILLION OZ
SILVER PRICE GAIN OF $2.22
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG 5,076 CONTRACTS TO 416,863 STILL WELL ABOVE ITS NEW LOW OF 326,052 OI SET JUNE 3, CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 345,705 SET (MAY 28) AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 353,490 SET MAY 27.. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 326,052 //JUNE 3 2026 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,450.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD NO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING//RAID. IT SEEMS THAT MANY OF THE SPECULATORS THAT HAVE NOW CONTINUED AGAIN TO BE ON THE SHORT SIDE WITH BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE AND THESE GUYS WERE AGAIN OBLITERATED YESTERDAY WHEN THE LONGS TENDERED FOR DELIVERY:
CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS JULY CONTRACT MONTH!!
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (4703CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD (UP $141.55)
WE THUS HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES (4703 CONTRACTS), WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A FAIR CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE EQUATING TO 1880 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF ANOTHER 1000 CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES OF GOLD. TOTAL THUS SO FAR THIS MONTH: 2000 CONTRACTS//200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES (2 OCCASIONS)
MONTH OF MAY RECORD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK: THE HIGHEST EVER ISSUANCE!!
MAY 22 RECORDS THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 12.4416 TONNES. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THE THIRD ON MAY 18 , THEN MAY 21 OUR 4TH ISSUANCE AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY, OUR 5TH ISSUANCE. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH JULY AND AUGUST
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS OR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES.
JUNE: 0 IN GOLD. THUS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IN GOLD ZERO NOTICES WERE FILED.
JULY: 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES
AUGUST: 1276 CONTRACTS FOR 127,600 OZ OR 3.9688 TONNES (5 OCCASIONS THIS MONTH)
SEPT: 1000 CONTRACTS FOR 100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNESS (ONE OCCASION)
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO AUGUST:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 131+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS, 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
JUNE: ZERO
JULY 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES. I DOUBT VERY MUCH THAT THIS IS A CENTRAL BANK
AUGUST: 1276 CONTRACTS FOR 127,600 OZ OR 3.9688 TONNES//5 OCCASIONS
SEPT: SO FAR: 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES/TWO OCCASIONS
DETAILS ON OUR NEW AUG COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A STRONG GIAN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4703 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE (UP $141.55). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE/JULY/AUG CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A FAIR SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1105 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS.
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND MAY WITH ITS 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 12.4436 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 24.635 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12, MAY 18 MAY 21 AND NOW MAY 22..
THEN IT SLOWS DOWN!
JUNE: ZERO FOR THE MONTH
JULY: 2 SO FAR FOR 200 IZ IR 0.00622 TONNES
AUGUST: 1276 CONTRACTS FOR 127,600 OZ OR 3.9688 TONNES
SEPT: 2000 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES (TWO OCCASIONS)
WE MUST ALSO REMEMBER THAT THE FRBNY IS SHORT 131+ TONNES OF GOLD, THIS COMMENCED ON JAN 2 2023 AS THEY REFUSE TO COVER DESPITE THE BIS’S PLEA TO DO SO.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 16 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2025
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING FINALIZES AT 157.879 TONNES, ITS HIGHEST STANDING RECORDED IN OVER 4 YEARS.
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 34,500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNESS
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE SUBTRACT AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES// TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH FINALIZES AT 62.4217 TONNES OR AVERAGING 3.285 TONNES PER DAY IN JUNE.
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 749,300 OZ OR 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000TONNES//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 40.818TONNES PLUS 0.00622 TONNES EXHANGE FOR RISK// NEW TOTAL 40.824 TONNES . TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING SO FAR: 17.5802 TONNES OR 0.8790 TONNES ON EACH TRADING DAY LEAVING COMEX FOR EASTERN SHORES.
AUGUST INITIAL; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STANDS: 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 5TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 5 CONTRACTS FOR 500 OZ OR 0.0155 TONNES TO OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 220 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR 0.6220 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 1.7045 TONNES TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 1.552 TONNES TO OUR FIRST: 0.0715 NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 3.9688 TONNES AND THEN ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 39 CONTRACTS OR 3900 OZ (0.1213 TONNES)//STANDING, IN TOTAL, THUS ADVANCES HUGELY TO 67.2441 TONNES.
SEPT/2026. INITIAL STANDING : 8.756 TONNES//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 100 OZ OR .00311 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THIS TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1,000 CONTRACTS/100,000 OZ OR 3.1104 TONNES: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 6.2208 TONNES /NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 15.465 TONNES
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE 4 YEARS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING SEPT CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE ( IT ROSE BY $141.55)
WE HAD NO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION THURSDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING /FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE AT COMEX OF $141.65
WE HAD 2253 CONTRACTS REMOVED // PRELIMINARY NUMBERS TO FINAL COMEX NUMBERS.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4703 CONTRACTS OR 470300 OZ 14.62 TONNES)
SEPT DELIVERY MONTH
SEPT 4
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold 0 ENTRIES xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 44 CONTRACTS 4,400 OZ 0.1368 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 417 Contracts 41,700 OZ 1.298 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 2555 notices 255,500 OZ 7.947 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
ENTRIES: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawal
0 ENTRIES
adjustments: 1//
CUSTOMER TO DEALER
a) Manfra: 4417.592 oz
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT OI STANDS AT 451 CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 34 CONTRACTS.
YESTERDAY WE HAD NORMAL STANDING AT 297,100 OZ //TODAY: 297,200 OZ STAND. THUS A GAIN OF 100 OZ(0.0528 TONNES) OR 1 CONTRACT UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP.
OCT LOST 1753 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 47,048
NOVEMBER GAINED 31 CONTRACTS RISING TO 657
.
We had 35 contracts filed for today representing 3500 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 44 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 16 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPT /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2555) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (461 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 44 x 100 oz per contract) equals 297,200 OZ OR (9.244Tonnes of gold) to which we add our second exchange for risk, a monster 1000 contracts or 100,000 oz (3.1104 tonnes)//new exchange for risk: 6.2208 tonnes/// thus new standing thus advances to 15.465 tonnes
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPT. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2555) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(461) contracts minus the number of notices served upon today 44 x 100 oz per contract) equals 297,200 OZ OR (9.244 Tonnes of gold) to which we add our 2nd exchange for risk of 3.1104 tonnes/new standing advances to 15.465 tonnes
new total of gold standing in SEPT becomes 15.465TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT 12.465 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW VERY STRONG FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT
confirmed volume THURSDAY confirmed 278,482/ fair//
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,666,759.925 oz 51.843 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,666,759.925 tonnes oz 51.843 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 27,377,617.005 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 15,110,183.008 tonnes (469.99 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 12,267,453.994 oz. Lots of eligible gold leaving the comex
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,443,424 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
418.146 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
SEPT DELIVERY MONTH
SEPT 4
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 4 entries i) Out of Asahi: 597,178.200 oz ii) Out of Delaware 8788.082 oz iii) Out of HSBC 600,637.160 oz iv) Out of Loomis: 300,262.510 total withdrawal: 1,506,815.952 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | ENTRIES: 2 i) Into Asahi 594,364.500 oz ii) Into Loomis: 595,535.260 oz total deposit: 1,192,899.260 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 49 CONTRACT(S) ( 0.245 MILLION OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 439 Contracts (2.195 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5032 contracts 25.160 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
ENTRY:0
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
2 ENTRIES:
i) Into Asahi 594,364.500 oz
ii) Into Loomis: 595,535.260 oz
total deposit: 1,192,899.260 oz
ENTRIES: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals:
4 entries
i) Out of Asahi: 597,178.200 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 8788.082 oz
iii) Out of HSBC 600,637.160 oz
iv) Out of Loomis: 300,262.510
total withdrawal: 1,506,815.952 oz
adjustments : 3
dealer to customer accounts
a) Asahi: 24,746.500 OZ
b) CNT 249,361.797 oz
CUSTOMER TO DEALER;
c) Brinks 97,712.892
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 99.386 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 338.698 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR SEPT
FRONT MONTH: SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS: 488 FOR A LOSS OF 70 CONTRACTS.
YESTERDAY WE HAD 27.310 MILLION OZ STAND: TODAY 27.355 MILLION OZ FOR A GAIN OF 0.45 MILLION OZ (45,000 OZ OR A QUEUE JUMP OF 9 CONTRACTS.
OCT LOST 55 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 2705
NOVEMBER GAINED 16 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 322
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 49 or 0.245 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume THURSDAY; 48,492// POOR/
AND NOW AUGUST. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5032 X5,000 oz = 25.160 MILLION oz.
Then we take the difference between the front month of September and the number of notices filed for today x 5000 to give us our standing
Thus the standings for silver for the Sept 2026 contract month: (5032 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPT (488) minus number of notices served upon today ( 49 x 5000 oz) equals silver standing for the SEPT .contract month equating to 27.355 MILLION OZ. ( a very strong delivery month)
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 99.386 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 137.898/338.698million: 40.71%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD/
SEPT 4//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $63.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.48 TONNES
SEPT 3//2026/WITH GOLD UP $141.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 9.98 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.62 TONNES
SEPT 2//2026/WITH GOLD UP $19.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.64 TONNES
SEPT 1//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $80.25 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.36 TONNES
AUGUST 31//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $48.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.25 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.36 TONNES
AUGUST 28//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $119.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.64 TONNES
AUGUST 27//2026/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.950 TONNES
AUGUST 26//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1/138 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.950 TONNES
AUGUST 25//2026/WITH GOLD FLAT /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.279 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.489 TONNES
AUGUST 24//2026/WITH GOLD UP $15.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 12.50 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.21 TONNES
AUGUST 21//2026/WITH GOLD UP $103.98 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.65 TONNES
AUGUST 20//2026/WITH GOLD UP $29.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 9.41 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.65 TONNES
AUGUST 19//2026/WITH GOLD UP $123.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.42 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.24 TONNES
AUGUST 18//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $51.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 7.13 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1030.66 TONNES
AUGUST 17//2026/WITH GOLD UP $36.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD FORM THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.53 TONNES
AUGUST 14//2026/WITH GOLD UP $16.55 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.80 TONNES
AUGUST 13//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $43.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3,139 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025,80TONNES
AUGUST 12//2026/WITH GOLD UP $24.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.562 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022.672TONNES
AUGUST 11//2026/WITH GOLD UP $20.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.52 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1020.06TONNES
AUGUST 10//2026/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.82 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017. 540TONNES
/AUGUST 7//2026/WITH GOLD UP $98.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.720TONNES
AUGUST 6//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.851 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.143TONNES
AUGUST 5//2026/WITH GOLD UP $59.75 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.146 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.874TONNES
AUGUST 3//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.80 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WIITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1007.02TONNES
JULY 31//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.40 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 30//2026/WITH GOLD UP $63.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 29//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 28//2026/WITH GOLD UP 21.50 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 27.2026/WITH GOLD UP 21.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JLY 24/2026/WITH GOLD UP 6.30 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 98.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1007.87TONNES
JULY 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP $73.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1053.48 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
SEPT 4 WITH SILVER UP $2.20 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.539 MILLION OZ
SEPT 3 WITH SILVER UP $2.20 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.293 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.539 MILLION OZ
SEPT2 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.832 MILLION OZ
SEPT1 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.43 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.832 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.97 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 0.452 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.832 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.44 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.543,000 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.380 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 27 WITH SILVER UP $1.33 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.923 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.60 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.174 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.923 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.43 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.9786 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.097 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.633 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.754 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 21 WITH SILVER UP $1.48 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.121 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 20 WITH SILVER UP $2.92 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.169 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.121 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 19 WITH SILVER UP $1.72 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.259 MILLION OZ OZ INTO THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.02 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 768,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.296 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 17 WITH SILVER UP $1.11 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 768,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.296 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.19 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 720,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.064 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.92 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.341 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.75 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A DEPOSIT OF 3.434 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.341 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A DEPOSIT OF 1.085 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.907 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 10 WITH SILVER UP $1.83 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV; / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.822 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 7 WITH SILVER UP $2.00 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.355 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.822 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.75 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.467 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 5 WITH SILVER UP $2.20: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV :// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.673 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV :A DEPOSIT OF 2.893 MILLION OZ FROIM THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.673 MILLION OZ
JULY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.90: :NOCHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.97: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 723,000 OZ INTO THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.34: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.057 MILLION OZ
JULY 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.27: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.633 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.057 MILLION OZ
JULY 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.27: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.722 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.690 MILLION OZ
JULY 24 WITH SILVER UP $1.45: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.413 MILLION OZ
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN 2.18: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 0.723MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.413 MILLION OZ
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.45: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.217 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.690 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 492.539 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF//JOHN RUBINO
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ//ALASDAIR MACLEOD
ALASDAIR MACLEOD….
A yen for gold
The yen carry trade is blowing up, driving up global bond yields. Investors are slowly learning that the only safe havens are to be found in gold, silver, and storable commodities.
It started with Scott Bessent at the US Treasury intervening in the JPY rate doing a favour for Japan’s finance ministry in late-July. As the chart above shows (scale inverted) the yen rallied sharply, did little for a month and this week suddenly rose again. Over the period of a month, the yen has rallied 5% against the dollar. Not only will Japan’s institutions be reviewing foreign bond and equity investments, but the carry-traders buying US treasury bills could become forced sellers to cover their yen shorts.
This matters, because the only way in which T-bill demand can be maintained is for the Fed to raise its fund rate to maintain an interest rate differential across global markets. Effectively, the competition to attract global investment funds is on. But we are getting ahead of ourselves, with respect to the consequences for the gold price, which is our central theme.
Gold and silver steadied this week, following the expiry of September futures contracts to end little changed in early trade this morning. The sharp declines over that event reflected the unwinding of some minor speculative longs which had accumulated during August, particularly noticeable in the silver contract where open interest on Comex declined by 17,532 contracts from the mid-month peak:
Open interest is now at its lowest levels for over 20 years, even as the silver price has rallied as the chart demonstrates. This tells us that the conditions for a bear squeeze on the establishment shorts have returned, because the only way for open interest is up.
Admittedly, part of the decline in silver’s open interest was due to deliveries totalling 5,274 contracts representing a massive 820 tonnes giving a total this year so far of 8,403 tonnes. Gold deliveries were remarkably similar at 5,227 contracts since mid-August representing 16.26 tonnes, giving a total for this year of 559.76 tonnes.
Comex is truly the largest gold and silver mine on the planet. Demand drives these deliveries, but it is not reflected in investor interest, which on the basis of open interest in both contracts remains exceptionally low. Investors are still dithering as to whether increasing prospects for a rise in interest rates will be bad for monetary metals, because conventional wisdom says that it is so.
There is evidence that this is changing, because the oil price has risen sharply over the last month, forcing analysts to increase their inflation forecasts:
Only a few months ago, gold and silver fell when oil rose, so this is a notable change. Oil prices rising indicated higher inflation down the line and therefore higher interest rates. This was said to disadvantage gold because you would earn more by holding dollars. This argument assumes that the dollar represents safety and gold risk. That oil is now rising at the same time as gold tells us that markets are having second thoughts and that gold is safety and the dollar is risk.
We saw this happen in 1973-74 when OPEC raised its reference prices in two steps, leading gold to first decline and then double over only three months, the classic double-take:
Today, the oil price is rising because US strategic reserves have effectively run dry, so the price suppression that was the object of the exercise has ended. As a major oil importer from the Middle East, Japan will be very badly hit with inflation certain to rise sharply along with interest rates.
We appear to be undergoing a revelation similar to that of the ‘seventies. The collapse of the carry trade, admittedly in its early stages and therefore far from certain, is an added factor destabilising government and other finances, even leading to competition between borrowers for international funds.
If the 1973-74 experience is our guide, then based on risk reassessment gold should swing sharply higher as investors do their doubletake and the establishment shorts rush to protect their positions.
END
3.CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE//KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT/287
END
5. COMMODITY REPORT: RICE
HUGE GAINS IN PRICE BECUASE OF HORMUZ:
Grain That Feeds Half The World Set For Biggest Annual Gain Since 2003
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 02:45 AM
Chicago rice futures are on track for their largest annual gain since 2003 as the grain that feeds much of the world becomes increasingly expensive amid an intensifying El Niño and diesel-fuel and fertilizer supply disruptions stemming from turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz and the Russia-Ukraine war. Despite encouraging signals of a potential Black Sea peace deal, which sent wheat futures tumbling earlier today, the risk of a broader food crisis next year remains elevated.
Chicago rice futures have surged more than 50% this year, while benchmark Thai prices have advanced for six consecutive weeks. Bloomberg says the rally reflects growing anxiety that adverse weather conditions and elevated agricultural input costs will curb production across Asia, which dominates global rice output and exports.
India’s monsoon rainfall was 13% below normal as of Wednesday, while US rice-crop conditions were weaker than a year earlier.
BMI commodities analyst Bin Hui Ong said monsoon-dependent producers such as Thailand and Indonesia are particularly vulnerable because dry conditions could coincide with critical planting and early crop development periods.
“We think monsoon-dependent Southeast Asian producers, particularly Thailand and Indonesia, are among the most exposed, as the anticipated dry conditions could significantly overlap with critical planting and early crop development periods,” Ong wrote in a note.
Ong said, “We expect the implications to be felt most acutely by net rice-importing and lower-income markets, where higher rice prices can feed directly into food inflation and affordability pressures.”
Rice futures in Chicago have jumped to near two-year highs. If the gains hold through year-end, this would mark the largest annual increase since 2003.
Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa already have limited stock buffers, the analyst added.
Several Wall Street desks, including Barclays and JPMorgan, have warned about mounting food-supply risks next year.
5. COMMODITY GOLD
The Rush To Pull Gold Out Of The U.S.
by quoth the raven
Thursday, Sep 03, 2026 – 14:04
Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance
It was reported yesterday that the Netherlands just shifted approximately 86 tonnes of its gold reserves from New York and Ottawa to London, explicitly citing “increasing geopolitical unrest” and the need to prepare for severe crises.
The Dutch central bank says gold held in London can be accessed and traded more quickly during an emergency than gold stored in New York or Canada.
That is some wonderfully sanitized central-bank language to deliver a message that seems to me to be “confidence in the U.S. holding the world’s gold…and likely being a cornerstone of the global economic machine…is dwindling.”
Either way, it means the Netherlands has effectively decided that if the world goes sideways, it would prefer substantially less of its ultimate crisis reserve sitting in North America.
Before the move, 31.3% of Dutch gold was in New York, 19.7% in Ottawa and 18.1% in London. Now New York and Ottawa each hold 18.5%, while London has jumped to 32.1%. The Netherlands owns 612.4 tonnes of gold altogether.
Technically, all 86 tonnes weren’t loaded onto planes and flown across the Atlantic. DNB sold roughly 59 tonnes in New York and bought equivalent market-standard gold in London. More than 27 tonnes were physically moved from the U.S. and Canada to the Netherlands, while a similar quantity moved from the Netherlands to London.
The distinction matters operationally. Economically, not so much. The result is fewer Dutch reserves in New York and considerably more in London.
And we’ve seen this before, but this time it feels different…
(READ THIS FULL ARTICLE 100% FREE HERE).
END
GOLD/VBL
Why UBS Believes Gold’s Bull Market Has Further to Run
by VBL
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 7:24
Authored by GoldFix
Gold’s latest bull market has further to run as sovereign buying, changing portfolio behavior and concern over public finances continue to support the metal. Its relationship with real interest rates has changed since 2022, weakening models built around the assumption that higher real yields must produce lower gold prices.
In the Financial Times Bhanu Baweja, chief strategist at UBS Investment Bank, said the current advance began in 2018 and has returned approximately 19% annualized. Declining real rates and Covid-era quantitative easing started the rally, but the freezing of Russia’s foreign reserves later produced a more fundamental change.
Three Bull Markets
Gold has experienced three major bull markets since Bretton Woods collapsed in 1971. The first ran from 1971 to 1980 and produced annualized gains of 46% over eight and a half years. Baweja linked the revaluation to the breakdown of the postwar monetary system, deeply negative real rates, geopolitical uncertainty and widening fiscal deficits.
The second ran from 1999 to 2011 and generated annualized gains of almost 18% as gold became financialized, Chinese commodity demand expanded and US monetary policy remained exceptionally loose.
Russia’s Reserve Freeze Makes Them “Want the Gold”
Baweja identified February 2022 as the point when gold’s established relationship with real rates broke down.
“For the first two decades of this century, a 1 percentage point move in US real rates typically coincided with a roughly 14 per cent move in gold in the opposite direction. That relationship ended in February 2022, when western governments froze Russia’s foreign exchange reserves. Reserve and asset managers globally were left confronting a simple question: if $630bn held in Treasuries, Bunds, gilts and other bonds could become inaccessible overnight, what constituted money? Their answer was gold. Emerging market central banks and sovereign funds have since increased gold allocations from 5 to 7 per cent of reserves in 2022 to 11 per cent today, still short of the 26 per cent held by developed-market peers.”
The change became clear as US five-year real yields rose more than four percentage points between March 2022 and October 2023. The historical relationship implied gold should fall approximately 55%. It gained 7% instead. Over the following two years, real yields declined less than one percentage point while gold rose 110%.
Baweja said gold is now more responsive to falling real yields and less sensitive when they rise. This asymmetry has left many fair-value models describing gold as extremely overvalued since approximately $2,500 an ounce.
Bonds No Longer Provide the Same Hedge
Positive correlation between bonds and equities has provided cyclical support. During the inflationary environment of the past five years, bonds have frequently failed to offset equity losses, while gold has generally offered stronger diversification.
Continues here
END
COMMODITY ELECTRICITY
The Rising Cost Of Electricity In The United States
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 06:55 AM
Across the U.S., Americans are paying roughly 30% more for electricity than in 2020.
This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Cody Good in partnership with the National Public Utilities Council, uses data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to show the change in average retail electricity prices by state across all sectors from 2020 to 2025.
Where Electricity Prices Rose the Most
Washington, DC saw the largest increase in the country, with average retail electricity prices rising 72% between 2020 and 2025. Maine followed closely at 67%, while Maryland and California rose 52% and 50%, respectively.
| State Abbreviation | State | Change in Electricity Price, All Sectors 2020-2025 (%) |
|---|---|---|
| DC | Washington, D.C. | 72 |
| ME | Maine | 67 |
| MD | Maryland | 52 |
| CA | California | 50 |
| RI | Rhode Island | 47 |
| PA | Pennsylvania | 46 |
| NY | New York | 45 |
| MA | Massachusetts | 44 |
| IL | Illinois | 43 |
| CT | Connecticut | 39 |
| DE | Delaware | 38 |
| NJ | New Jersey | 35 |
| NH | New Hampshire | 31 |
| FL | Florida | 30 |
| HI | Hawaii | 28 |
| LA | Louisiana | 27 |
| AL | Alabama | 26 |
| MS | Mississippi | 26 |
| NV | Nevada | 26 |
| AR | Arkansas | 25 |
| VA | Virginia | 25 |
| WV | West Virginia | 25 |
| IN | Indiana | 24 |
| MI | Michigan | 24 |
| AZ | Arizona | 23 |
| WA | Washington | 23 |
| OH | Ohio | 22 |
| TN | Tennessee | 22 |
| VT | Vermont | 22 |
| CO | Colorado | 21 |
| UT | Utah | 21 |
| WI | Wisconsin | 21 |
| ID | Idaho | 19 |
| MO | Missouri | 19 |
| MN | Minnesota | 18 |
| NC | North Carolina | 18 |
| OR | Oregon | 17 |
| OK | Oklahoma | 16 |
| KS | Kentucky | 15 |
| AK | Alaska | 14 |
| GA | Georgia | 14 |
| TX | Texas | 14 |
| MT | Montana | 13 |
| SD | South Dakota | 13 |
| IA | Iowa | 11 |
| KS | Kansas | 9 |
| NM | New Mexico | 9 |
| SC | South Carolina | 7 |
| NE | Nebraska | -1 |
| WY | Wyoming | -1 |
| ND | North Dakota | -18 |
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Data shows percent growth in average retail electricity prices across all sectors from 2020 to 2025.
Many of the largest increases were concentrated in coastal and Northeastern markets, where retail electricity prices have climbed sharply since 2020.
The U.S. Interior Tells a Different Story
While most states saw higher electricity prices, a few moved in the opposite direction. North Dakota had the largest decrease, with average retail electricity prices falling 18% from 2020 to 2025.
Nebraska and Wyoming also posted slight declines, each falling 1%.
This contrast shows how electricity costs can vary widely across the country depending on regional generation mixes, fuel costs, grid needs, regulations, and local market conditions.
The Bigger Impact of Rising Electricity Costs
Electricity prices rose across most of the U.S. from 2020 to 2025, but the increases were uneven. This matters because electricity is a core cost for households, businesses, and local economies.
As demand grows from data centers, electrification, and grid upgrades, affordability will remain a key challenge across the U.S.
For questions about the rising cost of electricity, contact the National Public Utilities Council.
END
BITCOIN:
Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Hits Six-Year High As Debasement Fears Mount
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 12:50 PM
Authored by Mathew Di Salvo via BitcoinMagazine.com,
Bitcoin’s correlation with gold is at its highest in six years as investors increasingly look for ways to hedge against currency debasement.
That’s according to a new report from Bitwise, which this week pointed out that the precious metal and leading cryptocurrency are trading in lockstep because the U.S. government has “materially intervened in the macro picture.”
Bitcoin started surging last month, after the U.S. Treasury Department said it would more than double the size of its government debt repurchases. The coin had its best run in three years and third best August ever.
“The last time the bitcoin-gold correlation was that high was in 2020, following the rounds of fiscal and monetary stimulus during the Covid crisis,” Bitwise’s European Head of Research, André Dragosch, wrote.
He added that bitcoin’s correlation with the stock market dropped to a one-year low, “implying some kind of decoupling between hard assets and the stock market.”
Bitcoin has been pushed as “digital gold” for years but has sometimes traded with tech stocks as a “risk-on” asset.
But the so-called debasement trade — when investors buy an asset as a way to hedge against a currency losing value — was a much-talked about investment strategy last year and appears to be back.
The reason is down to the government intervening in markets, Dragosch argued. When the Treasury said it would try to rein in long-term borrowing costs, the dollar’s value slid and sent investors flooding back to gold — and bitcoin.
The Treasury the same week also said the U.S. public debt exceeded $40 trillion for the first time. Excessive debt also undermines confidence in the dollar.
“Investors are no longer asking whether to hedge currency debasement with gold or bitcoin. They’re simply hedging with both,” the report added.
“Bitcoin spent its first fifteen years being priced as a risk asset. If this correlation trend with gold holds, the next fifteen may look very different.”
The leading cryptocurrency again rallied this week, and was recently trading for close to $81,438 after jumping nearly 6% over a 24-hour period.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.97 PTS OR 0.30%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 447.69 PTS OR 1.78%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 819.52 PTS OR 1.28%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.43%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7109
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7089 Oil DOWN TO 90.72 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 95.12 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7109 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7089 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 6.7109
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.7089
1.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 447/69 PTS OR 1.78%
2. Nikkei closed UP 819.52 PTS OR 1.28%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL DOWN TO 90.72
BRENT; 95.12
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP 15 BASIS PTS TO 99.03// EURO FALLS TO 1.1620 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +2.915 DOWN 5 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 156.37… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.976 DOWN 9 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP (6.7109) AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.7089
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA. CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. GOVERMENT ASKED JAPAN PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE FUNDS TO BUY MORE JAPANESE BONDS AND REPATRIATE ALL FOREIGN BONDS.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN for Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields LOWER on all fronts in the EU German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +3.3559/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN AT 4.178/ SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.797%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 4.0360%
3j Gold at $4477.80/Silver at: 67.03 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN AND 15/ 100 roubles/86.79
3m oil (WTI) into the 90 dollar handle for WTI and 95 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 156.37 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.915% DOWN 5 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS TO BE REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.976 DOWN 9 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.8087 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9347
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.7570 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 5.00%
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.2350 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/REFUSES TO GO DOWN WITH BESSENT’S QE TWIST
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.341 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 48.44 UP 12 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.1733 UP 4 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.8143 UP 3 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.797 UP 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.422 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures, Yields Flat Ahead Of August Jobs Report
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 08:25 AM
US futures are choppy, trading between unchanged and modestly higher, ahead of today’s jobs report which sees a modest increase in August payrolls (but the risk is for another negative print, see our preview here). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are flat and Nasdaq futures gain 0.5% as Mag 7 stocks trade mixed premarket, with NVDA (+1.4%) and AMZN (+0.7%) leading and TSLA (-2.1%) lagging. Bond yields are steady as traders wait to see whether Friday’s payrolls report will offer the Fed enough justification to hold off on an interest-rate hike in September. The USD is 20bp higher as the yen drops after yesterday’s surge. Commodities are mixed: oil fell, while base metals and Ags are both higher. Overnight, macro headlines were largely muted following yesterday’s bond market rally after Waller’s comments. All eyes are on the 8:30am ET NFP release (see our preview here), but investors are increasingly more focused on next week’s CPI than the payroll number, given Warsh’s assessment of the labor market and Waller’s comments yesterday.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Tesla falls 2% as the electric-car maker’s invite-only, closed-door Cybercab launch event resulted in little splash. Nvidia +1.1%, Amazon +0.5%, Meta +0.5%, Alphabet +0.3%, Microsoft -0.3%, Apple -0.3%
- Adobe (ADBE) falls 3% after naming Anil Chakravarthy as its next chief executive officer, thrusting the company veteran into a challenging competition with artificial intelligence upstarts.
- Asana (ASAN) falls 10% after the software company gave an outlook that was seen as disappointing.
- Equifax (EFX) falls 5% and TransUnion (TRU) slips 6% after US Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte issued renewed criticism of credit bureaus for overcharging Americans.
- Guidewire Software (GWRE) falls 15% after the company gave a first-quarter forecast that was weaker than expected on key metrics, including revenue and adjusted operating profit. Analysts said the outlook could be conservative.
- Planet Labs (PL) rises 12% after the satellite-imaging service firm reported second-quarter revenue that beat the average analyst estimate and lifted the low end of its full-year revenue outlook for 2027.
- Samsara (IOT) climbs 14% after the fleet management technology provider boosted its guidance for this year’s total revenue and adjusted earnings per share. The ranges for both metrics topped analyst estimates.
In other corporate news, Tesla’s much-anticipated Cybercab launch, an event nearly two years in the making, resulted in little splash or detail as the two-seat vehicle was added to the company’s robotaxi fleet. Lululemon comparable sales fell 9% in the second quarter and lowered its full-year outlook for a second straight quarter, signaling deep challenges for incoming CEO Heidi O’Neill. Speaking of ECM, health and fitness ring-maker Oura filed for an IPO, showing soaring revenue. Its listing could raise as much as $3 billion, based on prior Bloomberg News reports.
While market volatility remains subdued, with the VIX matching its lowest reading of the year, things promise to get livelier post the Labor Day holiday, however, and next week looks busy according to BBG. The traditional fall conference season kicks off, with hundreds of corporates presenting across the country, and there’s a CPI inflation print and a possible massive AI IPO filing to keep traders occupied.
The August jobs report arrives at a time when the odds of a quarter-point Fed hike this month are roughly even. While Fed Chair Kevin Warsh last week emphasized that policymakers’ focus is firmly on inflation, the employment report could help buy them time to assess whether current policy is restrictive enough to bring price pressures under control. Economists estimate the report will show a 55,000 increase in payrolls after an unexpected dip in July employment. Such a result would be broadly in line with average job growth this year. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.1% (full preview here).
One of the major events on the calendar over the next few weeks is likely to move markets and close the implied-realized gap, but for now short-dated index optionality looks more like a sell than a buy. The option implied SPX swing around NFPs is priced about the same as last month, when the 0.55% option-implied move ended up being very close to the realized move of 0.62%.
“The market needs a result weak enough to give the Fed a reason to keep interest rates unchanged, but not so weak that it intensifies concerns about a recession,” noted Linh Tran at XS.com. “Stronger-than-expected employment and wage growth could push yields higher again and weigh on equities.” By contrast, figures close to expectations and accompanied by moderating wage growth would create favorable conditions for the S&P 500 to retest its record high, Tran said.
JPMorgan’s Market Intelligence desk expects a “Good news is bad news” environment for market reaction to the print in most outcomes, with a Goldilocks scenario in the 30k to 70k range.
Bloomberg Economics’ Anna Wong expects the payrolls number to undershoot consensus, citing a pattern of the data disappointing in August. JPMorgan’s Market Intelligence desk sees a Goldilocks scenario in the 30,000-to-70,000 range.
“We are in the territory where bad news is good news, as both equities and credit are likely to be driven by what rates do,” said Mohit Kumar at Jefferies. “A small positive number would be a sweet spot for the markets.”
In AI news, the launch of a new Astra model sent OpenAI proxy SoftBank’s shares soaring in Tokyo trading. Astra benchmark scores of AGI — where artificial general intelligence surpasses human capabilities – gives OpenAI confidence to claim it has overtaken Anthropic on some measures. DeepSeek is planning to power a new data center with an order for one of the largest known clusters of Huawei AI chips as part of China’s efforts to replace Nvidia. Elsewhere, Anthropic is set to finalize an expansion of its revolving credit facility to $15 billion, clearing a hurdle before a public filing by the AI firm for its highly anticipated IPO.
In other assets, trading in yen call options against the dollar expiring this month was more than two-and-a-half times the volume of puts on Thursday, CME data shows. It’s part of a rush to unwind yen-funded carry trades, while the latest positioning data from CFTC data suggests scope for further short covering.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 edged higher 0.1%. Volkswagen AG rose as much as 9.7% after a major restructuring announcement. Here are the biggest movers Friday:
- Volkswagen shares gain as much as 9.7%, the biggest intraday move since March 2023, after the carmaker’s supervisory board backed a sweeping restructuring that includes 50,000 additional job cuts
- Continental shares rise as much as 4%, the most in two months, after Oddo BHF upgraded the tire maker. Analysts said the company is one of the most profitable within the sector
- AT&S shares rise as much as 10%, extending a huge year-to-date rally, after Oddo upgraded the printed circuit board maker to outperform, saying new contracts should maintain momentum
- Accor shares gain as much as 3.2% as Morgan Stanley upgrades the hotelier to overweight, naming it a top pick among the travel and leisure companies it covers
- Vodafone gains as much as 2.3% after Goldman Sachs upgraded its view on the company to buy from sell in a wider review of the European digital infrastructure and telecoms sector
- Studsvik gains as much as 8.1%, after the founder and CIO of US hedge fund Segra Capital Management bought shares in the Swedish nuclear technology company
- Oxford Nanopore shares drop as much as 12% after one of its investors, Novo Holdings, offered shares at a hefty discount to Thursday’s close
- Kuehne+Nagel shares fall as much as 2.5% after being downgraded to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley, which sees better execution as priced in and downside risks to Ebit
- Navitas Petroleum and Rockhopper Exploration are trading lower today as tensions around the Falklands Islands rise and Argentina targets their Sea Lion project
Earlier, Asian stocks rose on Friday as investors pared bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike this month, easing some of the pressure that higher bond yields had put on equities earlier in the week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.8% and is on track for a weekly gain. Stocks had come under pressure as rising global bond yields stoked concerns about the outlook for interest rates, though sentiment improved after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he’d be inclined to leave rates unchanged if inflation continues to slow. Most markets in the region advanced, including South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Japan’s Topix was little changed as investors assessed the impact of the yen’s recent gains. SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and TSMC were up as well. The regional stock gauge is on course for a second straight week of gains, with financials providing the biggest boost as the sector heads for its best week in almost five months.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index swung between gains and losses after falling as much as 0.7% to the lowest since May 11 on Thursday. The yen held most of its gains after advancing more than 2% on Thursday. The currency has strengthened this week to around 156 amid growing expectations that the Bank of Japan will tighten monetary policy faster than previously thought. BOJ policymakers could raise rates at three consecutive meetings through December in an extreme scenario where yen weakness persists, according to Nomura Securities Co. A quarter-point increase this month “looks reasonable,” while “it’s possible that we can have back-to-back rate hikes in October and December,” Yujiro Goto, head of FX strategy in Japan, told Bloomberg TV.
- USD/JPY rose 0.4% to 156.45 as a rush to unwind yen-funded carry trades helped propel the Japanese currency higher
- EUR/USD little changed at 1.1622; it’s up 0.3% this week
- NZD/USD gained 0.3% to 0.5897 before erasing gains; New Zealand’s central bank is more likely to wait until December before raising interest rates again, according to Assistant Governor Karen Silk
In rates, treasuries are little changed ahead of August employment data at 8:30 a.m. New York time amid similarly muted price action in European bonds, keeping US yields within a basis point of Thursday’s closing levels. US 10-year yield near 4.76% is less than 1bp lower while German and UK counterparts are slightly higher on the day; US front-end tenors lag slightly on the curve, flattening 2s10s spread by more than 1bp vs. Thursday’s close. Thursday’s session saw traders ramp up a range of hedges around the jobs report. Ahead of the data, swaps are pricing in around 14bp of Fed tightening for the September policy meeting and a combined 35bp by the end of the year. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far after just one deal was priced Thursday, bringing weekly total to about $10 billion, broadly in line with dealer estimates.
In commodities, WTI crude oil , though down about 1%, remains on course for biggest weekly gain since July following renewed US-Iran hostilities.
US economic data calendar includes only the jobs report, for which median economist estimate of nonfarm payrolls change is 55k and crowdsourced whisper number is 30k.. Fed speaker slate empty for the session. External communications blackout period around the Sept. 16 policy announcement begins Saturday
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- A U.S. campaign to throttle Iran’s economy by blockading its oil exports and stopping sanctions evasion is growing increasingly difficult to withstand, three senior Iranian sources said. Washington has in recent weeks sought to ratchet up the economic pressure on Tehran, in an effort to extract concessions in any future negotiation that six months of conflict have so far failed to secure: RTRS
- Israel says it has cleared Hezbollah fighters from tunnels under key Lebanon ridge: RTRS
- Norway’s sovereign wealth fund proposed reducing the amount of government bonds in its portfolio to boost holdings of riskier debt, with Treasuries the most affected. The proposed reduction in government bonds would imply a decrease of about $58 billion of government bonds, with holdings of US Treasuries projected to drop by $75 billion and those of Japanese government bonds possibly increasing by $20 billion. BBG
- US military turns off ad trackers on devices amid Middle East targeting reports: RTRS
- A rush to unwind yen-funded carry trades helped send the currency to a one-month high against the dollar as traders ramped up bets on further Bank of Japan rate hikes: BBG
- Australia’s bonds, caught up in the global fixed-income selloff, have seen their yields rise more than any of their peers in the past month, despite arguments that the country’s finances are in much better shape: BBG
- Some of the world’s biggest money managers have rebuilt their gold holdings after prices dropped, betting that long-term drivers of the precious metal will endure.
- Fund managers at companies including Amundi SA, Pictet Asset Management Ltd., and Fidelity International Ltd. added to holdings cut earlier this year, during bullion’s retreat from an all-time high: BBG
- Pimco fund beating 97% of peers cuts ‘Mag Seven’ to bet on Asia: BBG
- Deadly strike on Iranian wedding was likely a direct hit by a US munition, analysis shows: RTRS
- Former Labor Secretary Oversaw a ‘Toxic, Intimidating’ Workplace, Report Finds: WSJ
- The ‘Deeply Nerdy’ Founders Behind Nvidia’s $13 Billion Bet on Hugging Face: WSJ
- OpenAI agents hijacked German website in previously undisclosed AI breakout: RTRS
- Volkswagen flags 50,000 job cuts across group as board approves turnaround plan: RTRS
- Drugmakers Halt Autoimmune Trials After Deaths, Life-Threatening Side Effects: WSJ
- Trump Administration Again Asks Supreme Court to Allow New Mail Voting Rules: WSJ
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks took impetus from the positive global risk sentiment and lower yield environment after Fed’s Waller kept a September rate hold in play and following no major new geopolitical developments, while participants look ahead to the key US jobs data. ASX 200 lagged with price action rangebound as the outperformance in tech and telecoms was overshadowed by weakness in mining, resources, materials, utilities and energy, while a quiet calendar and lack of drivers kept the index in check. Nikkei 225 shrugged off the disappointing Household Spending data from Japan and briefly returned to above the 65,000 level amid lower yields and after a source report noted that the BoJ favours a 25bps rate hike this month and a flexible future pace, which helped ease concerns of a more aggressive move. KOSPI rallied amid strength in tech heavyweights with notable gains in SK Hynix, while Samsung Electronics was also firmer after industry data showed it narrowed the gap with market leader SK Hynix in the global HBM market during Q2. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned with the Hong Kong benchmark spearheading the advances alongside strength in property, tech and auto stocks, while the gains in the mainland were limited after the PBoC continued to drain liquidity with today’s open market operations amount remaining at zero.
Top Asian News
- Japanese PM Takaichi will keep Finance Minister Katayama, in cabinet reshuffle, according to Mainichi.
- Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said interest rate moves are determined by various factors in markets and they will control FY bond issuance properly, while she added that FY27 budget requests total about JPY 143tln and don’t represent a large increase. Katayama said they are closely watching bond markets with a high sense of urgency and noted that there were no specific requests from US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Furthermore, she said Bessent assessed PM Takaichi’s economic policies very highly and has long held a view that the yen has been undervalued, due largely to interest rate differentials.
European bourses start the final trading session of the week on the backfoot, albeit only modestly. Focus will be on the US jobs report, with NFP expected at 58k. Although this data point is key for the Fed, most policymakers will be focused on the inflation print expected in a week’s time. Sectors lack a clear bias. Tech tops the sector pile, with Travel & Leisure and Autos rounding out the sector gainers. To the downside is Media, following Vivendi earnings (see more below), with Chemicals and Banks following behind. The biggest story of the morning came from Volkswagen (+6.2%), after the Co.’s supervisory board approved a plan that would include an additional 50k job cuts.
Top European News
- UK Energy Secretary could recommend new North Sea drilling as soon as next week, a Rosebank oilfield announcement expected to follow, The Guardian reported citing sources.
- BoE DMP (Aug): 1-year CPI expectation 3.1% (prev. 3.4%), 3-year CPI expectation 2.8% (prev. 2.8%).
- European Retail Sales (Jul MM) -0.6% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%).
- German Factory Orders (Jul MM) 2.5% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 3.1%).
- Italian Retail Sales (Jul MM) -0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.1%).
FX
- Mixed action across G10FX where there is no real bias. Stealing leads for no particular reason, JPY lags after large gains this week.
- Choppy USD action this morning which sees EUR/USD within a narrow 15 pip range and DXY flat into NFP. Some broad based, but modest USD upside was seen after the EU cash open, lifting DXY from 99.00 to a high just below 99.10 with EUR and GBP pairs sent to lows. While NFP is the highlight of the day, officials’ keen eye on inflation will be the deciding factor in the Fed’s September meeting, especially after Waller’s remarks on Thursday.
- With a 25bps ECB hike next week fully priced, EUR will likely remain at the whim of the Buck into Payrolls. Focus will be on the first of three significant state elections in September, Saxony. Polling has AfD clearly in the lead with 40-43% of the vote; if materialised, will add to the pressure on the German Grand coalition nationally, though not change the power balance or impact economic/fiscal policy. Lane did not add anything, given ECB is in blackout. EUR/USD choppy, but found support at 1.1620.
- GBP saw some weakness on the DMP which showed easing 1yr inflation expectations, though the reaction was limited to around ten pips and Sterling is still the best G10 performer with BoE’s Bailey not providing commentary on monetary policy. Cable’s 1.3550 will likely provide resistance to further Cable gains absent an NFP surprise. JPY is the underperformer today as it pulls back from recent gains of over 3% vs. the Buck. The pair bottomed at 155.22 and now lies just above 156.00.
Fixed Income
- Global fixed benchmarks trade with mild gains after initially holding in the red early morning. USTs (+1 tick) trades tentatively heading into US NFP, whilst Bunds (+4 ticks) and Gilts (+6 ticks) post modest gains. Overnight, JGBs (+30 ticks) posted decent gains, tracking the advances made in USTs on Thursday; a couple of decent auctions earlier in the week, and speculation surrounding the GPIF upping its allocation in domestic bonds have also boosted sentiment.
- USTs currently trade at the upper end of a 107-17 to 107-23+ range, at levels more-or-less similar to the week’s open. Focus this morning has been on an FT article which suggested that Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund has proposed cutting government bonds to 50% of its bond portfolio (from 70%). The fund now aims to look at other types of debt to try to boost returns. The piece suggests that its allocation to Gilts would remain unchanged, whilst its position in JGBs would rise by 2.8%. On the flip side, a Reuters report suggested that some Chinese commercial banks have upped their purchases of USTs in recent months.
- Bunds and Gilts are incrementally firmer this morning. German benchmarks specifically, focus is on the upcoming Saxony-Anhalt state election. The far-right AfD are expected to win, but attention will be on whether it can achieve an absolute majority. This is because other major parties have ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD. Even if the AfD does fall short, the CDU will face the issue of forming a new coalition, potentially leading to political instability and hence reducing confidence in German debt.
- For UK specifically, focus will be on a speech from BoE Governor Bailey. Elsewhere, the BoE DMP saw the 1-year-ahead expectation fall to 3.1% (prev. 3.4%), spurring mild strength in Gilts.
- Norway’s sovereign wealth fund sent a letter to the finance ministry recommending the reduction of holdings of US Treasuries from 70% to 50%, according to FT.
- Some Chinese commercial banks have raised US dollar deposit rates above 3% and subsequently increased purchases of US Treasuries in recent months, according to sources.
- Australia sells AUD 800mln in 4.75% October 2037 Bonds b/c 3.21x, avg. yield 5.2133.
Commodities
- WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures are softer intraday amid a lack of notable geopolitical updates overnight to shift the dial. The former resides in a USD 90.38-92.17/bbl range (vs yesterday’s 89.57-93.14/bbl), and the latter in a USD 94.81-96.21/bbl parameter (vs yesterday’s 84.03-97.62/bbl). Over the weekend, the OPEC+ JMMC is scheduled to meet, with market sources suggesting no changes will be made to October’s overall output targets as the committee focuses broadly on market conditions and member compliance.
- Metals are also trading broadly flat/firmer intraday amid as drivers remain light ahead of the US jobs report. The consensus expects the US economy to have added 58K nonfarm payrolls in August, analysts say that a payrolls print close to expectations alongside a steady unemployment rate would be consistent with a stable labour market that is cooling but not deteriorating sharply, and that should keep policymakers focused on the inflation side of the mandate.
- Spot gold resides in a narrow USD 4,460-4,491/oz range at the time of writing, within yesterday’s parameter (USD 4,381-4,511/oz) and in between its 200 DMA (USD 4,534/oz) and 100 DMA (USD 4,355/oz). Spot silver is flat just under its 100 DMA (67.52/oz), in a current USD 66.29-67.20/oz range. Base metals are uneventful with 3M LME copper eking mild gains in a narrow USD 14,299.10- 14,392.73/oz.
- Oil production in Kazakhstan for 2027 is planned at 96mln tonnes, IFX reported citing the budget project.
- Russia’s Deputy PM Novak said China will account for more than 60% of Russia’s total natural gas exports by 2030.
- Some Chinese rare earth suppliers have reportedly halted some US shipments over geopolitical worries, Reuters reported.
Trade/Tariffs
- USTR Greer said Canada wanted more tariff relief and that he’s had a couple of texts and outreach with Canada, but hasn’t had negotiations with Canada since. Greer also stated he met with Mexico’s Trade Minister on Thursday and that Mexico is eager to do things to protect North America from Chinese imports. Furthermore, Greer said the US is looking to reduce its deficit with China and will probably make agriculture announcements during Chinese President Xi’s visit, adding that he is optimistic about the US-China relationship.
- USTR Greer told the FT that the UK is choosing the EU over the US, which is causing a problem for the UK to expand a trade deal with the US. Greer said the UK had failed to take advantage of Brexit by aligning with EU-made rules and closing its market to American goods and still had “pretty high tariffs”.
- Brazil warned of reciprocal measures against the EU if talks to lift the meat ban stall.
- South Korea’s Interior Minister said South Korea and the US are continuing chip tariff talks.
Central Banks
- BoE’s Bailey said Fed Chair Warsh is “right to see some dangers in forward guidance” and that central bankers should avoid giving unconditional guidance. He added that we do exercise choice on how fast to bring inflation back to target, “but must do so”.
- RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk said a rate hike in October or December is still open, but stated a hike is more likely in December and that the RBNZ wants to support continuing improvement in the economy.
- RBNZ MPC member Hansen said Wednesday’s rate hike was a clear consensus decision and that further policy decisions will depend on trends in a wide range of economic datasets, while he is watching for surprises in data, not a single indicator, before deciding what should happen in October.
Geopolitics: Iran
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the EU has joined Operation Economic Outcast and that he appreciates the EU’s strong and early stance on Iran.
- Oman and Qatar are intensifying efforts to resume Iran-US talks, and that the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions, and the nuclear file are the focus of new disputes, Nour News reported citing diplomatic sources.
- Direct US-Iran talks have stopped, but mediators are maintaining back channels and trying to build a framework that could bring both sides back to negotiations on a new agreement, FT reported.
- IRNA reported several explosions were heard in Iraq’s Erbil province.
- South Korea prepared a plan to deploy non-combat naval assets to the Strait of Hormuz, according to Chosun Daily.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- US Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner is to visit Russia and Ukraine on September 5th-6th, TASS reported citing sources.
- Ukraine’s next goal is to shut down Russia’s commercial airspace, according to WSJ.
- Ukrainian Energy Ministry said Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on energy infrastructure in Ukraine’s Odessa region.
Geopolitics: Other
- Argentina’s President Milei will sign a decree sanctioning companies working on oil exploration of the Falkland Islands, while he stated that the Falkland’s Sea Lion Project presents a clear danger and plans to build a naval base in Tierra del Fuego.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Aug Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 55k, prior -23k
- 8:30 am: Aug Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 5k, prior 5k
- 8:30 am: Aug Unemployment Rate, est. 4.1%, prior 4.1%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Welcome to the 384th payroll Friday of my career. For the first one I was ordered to get the coffees in for the whole trading floor, keep quiet, and watch the spectacle. Imagine if I asked a graduate to do that today.
Ahead of the big day, the relentless global bond selloff has finally paused over the last 24 hours, with a cross-asset rally driven by dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller. He cast doubt on whether the Fed would hike rates this month, which led to a dovish repricing that led futures to slash the chance of a hike to 51% as of this morning, down from 63% at the close on Wednesday. Moreover, there was also relief on the energy front, as European natural gas prices came down -2.48% yesterday, after rising almost 10% over the previous three days. So collectively, all that pushed back against the hawkish newsflow of recent days. That said, the benefits were much more visible for equities, with the S&P 500 (+1.06%) having its best day in almost a month, than for US long-end bonds, with 10yr Treasury yields a modest -1.1bps lower on the day.
European bonds saw a much bigger yield decline though.
Those comments from Waller drove the biggest move of the day, as he made several dovish points. For instance, he said that “recent data suggest we are finally seeing some signs of disinflation”, and that if this continued, he would be “inclined to support holding” rates. In addition, he said “my take is that underlying inflation is doing better than the core numbers suggest.” So again, that leant in a dovish direction. Admittedly, Waller said he’d consider a hike “if inflation comes in hot”, but given the rest of his comments were more dovish, market pricing for a September hike fell back to 51% by the close.
With expectations for a hike in the balance again, that’s heightened the focus on today’s US jobs report, which is out at 13:30 London time. In general, the labour market has been robust in the last few months. But the most recent jobs report for July was much weaker than expected, with payrolls unexpectedly contracting, along with downward revisions to the previous couple of months. So that cast further doubt on a September hike, and it was only thanks to Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole last week that investors had grown more confident of a September hike once again. For this report, our US economists are expecting nonfarm payrolls to rebound by +65k, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. So if realised, that would cement the view that the labour market is holding up and keep the Fed’s focus on inflation.
Ahead of that report, yesterday’s data generally leant in a more hawkish direction, which acted as a bit of a counterweight to Waller’s comments. Most obviously, the ISM services index for August beat expectations, rising to a 6-month high of 55.4 (vs. 54.1 expected). And digging into the details, the prices paid component moved up to a 4-year high of 72.6 (vs. 70.0 expected), which is notable given that this series is strongly correlated to inflation with a 3-month lag. In the meantime, weekly initial jobless claims were also at just 206k in the week ending August 29 (vs. 205k expected). And the July trade deficit was a bit smaller than expected at $88.6bn (vs. $90.2bn expected).
Despite all that data, the comments from Governor Waller won out when it came to market pricing, though the pull back in Treasury yields did vary across the curve. The decline was most obvious at the front-end, which showed how it was the Fed commentary driving the moves, with the 2yr yield (-3.2bps) falling to 4.34%. By contrast, the rally was more marginal further out, with the 10yr yield (-1.1bps to 4.77%) and the 30yr yield (-1.1bps to 5.25%) actually closing a touch above their levels just before Waller’s comments.
For US equities, the combination of strong data and dovish commentary offered more decisive support. So the S&P 500 (+1.06%) posted back-to-back gains for the first time in 3 weeks, with the index also back within 1% of its record high from last month. That was led by a very strong performance for the Magnificent 7 (+2.38%), which hit a 3-month high as it posted its best day in the last month. But it was still a broad-based rally, with the S&P 500 seeing the most daily advancers since early August, as more than two-thirds of the index moved higher.
As all that was going on, bonds and equities received further support from the latest moves in energy prices, with Brent crude (-0.12% to $95.52/bbl) settling lower for the first time in four sessions. But otherwise, the moves under the surface weren’t so bad for other asset classes. Moreover, longer-dated oil futures fell back, meaning that investors were slightly pricing out a prolonged period of high oil prices and the chances of stagflation. The 12-month Brent future fell -1.12% on the day to $76.67/bbl. And natural gas futures also fell back on both sides of the Atlantic, which eased concerns about a wider spike in energy prices this winter. So the European natural gas future fell -2.48% to €71.80/MWh, whilst the US natural gas futures also fell -1.45%.
Those moves in energy prices offered plenty of support to European assets, with yields finally pulling back from their multi-year highs on Wednesday. That happened across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (-3.3bps) down to 3.34%, alongside declines for 10yr yields on OATs (-4.8bps), BTPs (-5.0bps) and gilts (-9.6bps). Then for equities we also saw a recovery, with the STOXX 600 (+0.49%) stabilising after 3 consecutive declines, including gains for the DAX (+0.63%), the CAC 40 (+0.07%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.70%).
Asian equity markets are generally riding the tech train this morning with the Hang Seng (+2.12%), KOSPI (+1.88%) and the Nikkei (+1.30%) all strong. Elsewhere, mainland Chinese markets are posting more modest gains, with the CSI 300 up +0.43% and the Shanghai Composite advancing +0.35%. In contrast, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (-0.21%) is bucking the regional trend. US and European equity futures are all up less than a tenth of a percent.
Meanwhile, data released earlier this morning showed that Japanese household spending contracted in July at the fastest annual pace in two and a half years, underscoring weak private consumption ahead of the BoJ policy meeting two weeks from today. Consumer spending fell -3.6% year-on-year, significantly worse than the market expectation of a -1.6% decline, marking the eighth consecutive month of contraction. The drop was the steepest since January 2024, when household spending declined by -6.3% year-on-year.
That has helped see a small decline for the yen this morning (-0.36%) following on from a huge jump yesterday, as it strengthened +1.86% against the US dollar. Thats a four big figure move in 48 hours now. To be fair, a small part of that was dollar weakness after Fed Governor Waller’s remarks. But that was only part of it, as the yen was also up +1.55% against the euro as well. The moves came amidst mounting speculation that the Bank of Japan would take further action in two weeks. However speculation that they would supersize the hike faded as Bloomberg reported yesterday they were leaning towards a 25bp rate hike this month and would leave open the possibility of a faster pace of hikes afterwards. Their next meeting is just a couple of days after the Fed’s decision. So that’ll be a big couple of days for markets mid-month.
Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be the US jobs report for August. Other data releases include German factory orders and Euro Area retail sales for July. Otherwise, central bank speakers include BoE Governor Bailey and the ECB’s Lane.
1b) European opening report
Yields muted, NQ and USD firmer into NFP report – Newsquawk US Market Open
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 06:36 AM
- Norway’s sovereign wealth fund sent a letter to the finance ministry recommending the reduction of holdings of US Treasuries from 70% to 50%, according to FT.
- US equity futures mixed; Volkswagen benefits after the approval of cost-cutting plan.
- USD slightly firmer heading into the jobs report; JPY gives back some of Thursday’s gains.
- Fixed income benchmarks muted; USTs unfazed following the FT report that Norway may reduce holdings.
- Energy benchmarks softer amid light geopolitical updates.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobs Report (Aug), Canadian Jobs Report (Aug).
SNAPSHOT
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses start the final trading session of the week on the backfoot, albeit only modestly. Focus will be on the US jobs report, with NFP expected at 58k. Although this data point is key for the Fed, most policymakers will be focused on the inflation print expected in a week’s time.
- Sectors lack a clear bias. Tech tops the sector pile, with Travel & Leisure and Autos rounding out the sector gainers. To the downside is Media, following Vivendi earnings (see more below), with Chemicals and Banks following behind. The biggest story of the morning came from Volkswagen (+6.2%), after the Co.’s supervisory board approved a plan that would include an additional 50k job cuts.
- US equity futures are mixed, with clear outperformance in the NQ. After-hours, Lululemon (-17.9% pre-market) reported poor metrics, in which revenue missed expectations, comparable sales declined, and the company sharply cut its Q3 and FY outlooks, citing weaker North American demand, inconsistent product response and a slow start to the current quarter.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
FX
- Mixed action across G10FX where there is no real bias. Stealing leads for no particular reason, JPY lags after large gains this week.
- Choppy USD action this morning which sees EUR/USD within a narrow 15 pip range and DXY flat into NFP. Some broad based, but modest USD upside was seen after the EU cash open, lifting DXY from 99.00 to a high just below 99.10 with EUR and GBP pairs sent to lows. While NFP is the highlight of the day, officials’ keen eye on inflation will be the deciding factor in the Fed’s September meeting, especially after Waller’s remarks on Thursday.
- With a 25bps ECB hike next week fully priced, EUR will likely remain at the whim of the Buck into Payrolls. Focus will be on the first of three significant state elections in September, Saxony. Polling has AfD clearly in the lead with 40-43% of the vote; if materialised, will add to the pressure on the German Grand coalition nationally, though not change the power balance or impact economic/fiscal policy. Lane did not add anything, given ECB is in blackout. EUR/USD choppy, but found support at 1.1620.
- GBP saw some weakness on the DMP which showed easing 1yr inflation expectations, though the reaction was limited to around ten pips and Sterling is still the best G10 performer with BoE’s Bailey not providing commentary on monetary policy. Cable’s 1.3550 will likely provide resistance to further Cable gains absent an NFP surprise. JPY is the underperformer today as it pulls back from recent gains of over 3% vs. the Buck. The pair bottomed at 155.22 and now lies just above 156.00.
FIXED INCOME
- Global fixed benchmarks trade with mild gains after initially holding in the red early morning. USTs (+1 tick) trades tentatively heading into US NFP, whilst Bunds (+4 ticks) and Gilts (+6 ticks) post modest gains. Overnight, JGBs (+30 ticks) posted decent gains, tracking the advances made in USTs on Thursday; a couple of decent auctions earlier in the week, and speculation surrounding the GPIF upping its allocation in domestic bonds have also boosted sentiment.
- USTs currently trade at the upper end of a 107-17 to 107-23+ range, at levels more-or-less similar to the week’s open. Focus this morning has been on an FT article which suggested that Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund has proposed cutting government bonds to 50% of its bond portfolio (from 70%). The fund now aims to look at other types of debt to try to boost returns. The piece suggests that its allocation to Gilts would remain unchanged, whilst its position in JGBs would rise by 2.8%. On the flip side, a Reuters report suggested that some Chinese commercial banks have upped their purchases of USTs in recent months.
- Bunds and Gilts are incrementally firmer this morning. German benchmarks specifically, focus is on the upcoming Saxony-Anhalt state election. The far-right AfD are expected to win, but attention will be on whether it can achieve an absolute majority. This is because other major parties have ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD. Even if the AfD does fall short, the CDU will face the issue of forming a new coalition, potentially leading to political instability and hence reducing confidence in German debt.
- For UK specifically, focus will be on a speech from BoE Governor Bailey. Elsewhere, the BoE DMP saw the 1-year-ahead expectation fall to 3.1% (prev. 3.4%), spurring mild strength in Gilts.
- Norway’s sovereign wealth fund sent a letter to the finance ministry recommending the reduction of holdings of US Treasuries from 70% to 50%, according to FT.
- Some Chinese commercial banks have raised US dollar deposit rates above 3% and subsequently increased purchases of US Treasuries in recent months, according to sources.
- Australia sells AUD 800mln in 4.75% October 2037 Bonds b/c 3.21x, avg. yield 5.2133.
COMMODITIES
- WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures are softer intraday amid a lack of notable geopolitical updates overnight to shift the dial. The former resides in a USD 90.38-92.17/bbl range (vs yesterday’s 89.57-93.14/bbl), and the latter in a USD 94.81-96.21/bbl parameter (vs yesterday’s 84.03-97.62/bbl). Over the weekend, the OPEC+ JMMC is scheduled to meet, with market sources suggesting no changes will be made to October’s overall output targets as the committee focuses broadly on market conditions and member compliance.
- Metals are also trading broadly flat/firmer intraday amid as drivers remain light ahead of the US jobs report. The consensus expects the US economy to have added 58K nonfarm payrolls in August, analysts say that a payrolls print close to expectations alongside a steady unemployment rate would be consistent with a stable labour market that is cooling but not deteriorating sharply, and that should keep policymakers focused on the inflation side of the mandate.
- Spot gold resides in a narrow USD 4,460-4,491/oz range at the time of writing, within yesterday’s parameter (USD 4,381-4,511/oz) and in between its 200 DMA (USD 4,534/oz) and 100 DMA (USD 4,355/oz). Spot silver is flat just under its 100 DMA (67.52/oz), in a current USD 66.29-67.20/oz range. Base metals are uneventful with 3M LME copper eking mild gains in a narrow USD 14,299.10- 14,392.73/oz.
- Oil production in Kazakhstan for 2027 is planned at 96mln tonnes, IFX reported citing the budget project.
- Russia’s Deputy PM Novak said China will account for more than 60% of Russia’s total natural gas exports by 2030.
- Some Chinese rare earth suppliers have reportedly halted some US shipments over geopolitical worries, Reuters reported.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- USTR Greer said Canada wanted more tariff relief and that he’s had a couple of texts and outreach with Canada, but hasn’t had negotiations with Canada since. Greer also stated he met with Mexico’s Trade Minister on Thursday and that Mexico is eager to do things to protect North America from Chinese imports. Furthermore, Greer said the US is looking to reduce its deficit with China and will probably make agriculture announcements during Chinese President Xi’s visit, adding that he is optimistic about the US-China relationship.
- USTR Greer told the FT that the UK is choosing the EU over the US, which is causing a problem for the UK to expand a trade deal with the US. Greer said the UK had failed to take advantage of Brexit by aligning with EU-made rules and closing its market to American goods and still had “pretty high tariffs”.
- Brazil warned of reciprocal measures against the EU if talks to lift the meat ban stall.
- South Korea’s Interior Minister said South Korea and the US are continuing chip tariff talks.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- UK Energy Secretary could recommend new North Sea drilling as soon as next week, a Rosebank oilfield announcement expected to follow, The Guardian reported citing sources.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- BoE DMP (Aug): 1-year CPI expectation 3.1% (prev. 3.4%), 3-year CPI expectation 2.8% (prev. 2.8%).
- European Retail Sales (Jul MM) -0.6% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%).
- German Factory Orders (Jul MM) 2.5% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 3.1%).
- Italian Retail Sales (Jul MM) -0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.1%).
CENTRAL BANKS
- BoE’s Bailey said Fed Chair Warsh is “right to see some dangers in forward guidance” and that central bankers should avoid giving unconditional guidance. He added that we do exercise choice on how fast to bring inflation back to target, “but must do so”.
- RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk said a rate hike in October or December is still open, but stated a hike is more likely in December and that the RBNZ wants to support continuing improvement in the economy.
- RBNZ MPC member Hansen said Wednesday’s rate hike was a clear consensus decision and that further policy decisions will depend on trends in a wide range of economic datasets, while he is watching for surprises in data, not a single indicator, before deciding what should happen in October.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to allow mail-in ballot restrictions, according to WaPo.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the EU has joined Operation Economic Outcast and that he appreciates the EU’s strong and early stance on Iran.
- Oman and Qatar are intensifying efforts to resume Iran-US talks, and that the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions, and the nuclear file are the focus of new disputes, Nour News reported citing diplomatic sources.
- Direct US-Iran talks have stopped, but mediators are maintaining back channels and trying to build a framework that could bring both sides back to negotiations on a new agreement, FT reported.
- IRNA reported several explosions were heard in Iraq’s Erbil province.
- South Korea prepared a plan to deploy non-combat naval assets to the Strait of Hormuz, according to Chosun Daily.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner is to visit Russia and Ukraine on September 5th-6th, TASS reported citing sources.
- Ukraine’s next goal is to shut down Russia’s commercial airspace, according to WSJ.
- Ukrainian Energy Ministry said Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on energy infrastructure in Ukraine’s Odessa region.
OTHER
- Argentina’s President Milei will sign a decree sanctioning companies working on oil exploration of the Falkland Islands, while he stated that the Falkland’s Sea Lion Project presents a clear danger and plans to build a naval base in Tierra del Fuego.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin lacks clear direction and trades in a narrow USD 80.5k-81.44k range.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks took impetus from the positive global risk sentiment and lower yield environment after Fed’s Waller kept a September rate hold in play and following no major new geopolitical developments, while participants look ahead to the key US jobs data.
- ASX 200 lagged with price action rangebound as the outperformance in tech and telecoms was overshadowed by weakness in mining, resources, materials, utilities and energy, while a quiet calendar and lack of drivers kept the index in check.
- Nikkei 225 shrugged off the disappointing Household Spending data from Japan and briefly returned to above the 65,000 level amid lower yields and after a source report noted that the BoJ favours a 25bps rate hike this month and a flexible future pace, which helped ease concerns of a more aggressive move.
- KOSPI rallied amid strength in tech heavyweights with notable gains in SK Hynix, while Samsung Electronics was also firmer after industry data showed it narrowed the gap with market leader SK Hynix in the global HBM market during Q2.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned with the Hong Kong benchmark spearheading the advances alongside strength in property, tech and auto stocks, while the gains in the mainland were limited after the PBoC continued to drain liquidity with today’s open market operations amount remaining at zero.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese PM Takaichi will keep Finance Minister Katayama, in cabinet reshuffle, according to Mainichi.
- Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said interest rate moves are determined by various factors in markets and they will control FY bond issuance properly, while she added that FY27 budget requests total about JPY 143tln and don’t represent a large increase. Katayama said they are closely watching bond markets with a high sense of urgency and noted that there were no specific requests from US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Furthermore, she said Bessent assessed PM Takaichi’s economic policies very highly and has long held a view that the yen has been undervalued, due largely to interest rate differentials.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Japanese Household Spending (Jul YY) -3.6% vs. Exp. -1.6% (Prev. -3.3%).
- Japanese Household Spending (Jul MM) 0.5% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. -6.4%).
1c) Asian report
USD/JPY recoups some losses and yields moderate into NFP report – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 02:26 AM
- Crude futures kept afloat but with gains limited following the previous day’s two-way trade and with a lack of major new geopolitical developments.
- USD/JPY recouped some losses after sliding as the yen recently outperformed due to intervention risks and hawkish BoJ rate hike bets.
- Norway’s USD 2.3tln sovereign wealth fund manager has proposed an overhaul of its government bond portfolio that could see it cut its holdings of US Treasuries by about USD 80bln, as it looks to other types of debts to try to boost returns, according to FT.
- APAC stocks took impetus from the positive global risk sentiment and lower yield environment; European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Factory Orders (Jul), EZ Retail Sales (Jul), US Jobs Report (Aug), Canadian Jobs Report (Aug). Speakers include BoE Governor Bailey & ECB’s Lane.
SNAPSHOT
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LOOKING AHEAD
- Highlights include German Factory Orders (Jul), EZ Retail Sales (Jul), US Jobs Report (Aug), Canadian Jobs Report (Aug). Speakers including BoE Governor Bailey & ECB’s Lane.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
IRAN CONFLICT
- US VP Vance said about 15mln barrels of oil went through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday and that they have a lot of additional tools at their disposal on Iran; some of which Trump will use and some he won’t, while he added that major combat operations on Iran ended a long time ago. Vance said their message to the Iranians is that they are not talking unless Iran stops shooting at commercial shipping. Furthermore, he would not call the Iran operation a war and stated that if the Iranians keep on shooting at commercial ships, he thinks they have a responsibility, but certainly are not the only ones with the capability to ensure that the Iranians are not destroying world energy markets.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the EU has joined Operation Economic Outcast and that he appreciates the EU’s strong and early stance on Iran.
- Direct US-Iran talks have stopped, but mediators are maintaining back channels and trying to build a framework that could bring both sides back to negotiations on a new agreement, FT reported.
- US official confirmed to CBS News on Thursday that Iran’s attacks the previous night did not impact any military facilities in the Middle East where US forces are based, including in Kuwait, which was targeted by Iranian forces.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu said to the General Staff Forum, “We are convinced of our ability to overthrow the Iranian regime. This is the central mission and it is imminent.”
- IDF said it has completed clearing Hezbollah’s underground infrastructure in the Ali Taher Ridge and is working to neutralise it, while it did not find any Iranian advisors or officers in the Ali Taher tunnels, according to N12.
- Iranian senior source said the situation on the battleground demonstrates Iran’s readiness for a long-term confrontation with the US, while the source added that the US will get increasingly bound in the crisis around Iran, forcing it to extend its presence in the region, according to TASS.
- Iran’s Energy Minister said a large portion of the damage to energy facilities during the two recent wars has been repaired.
- Oman has quietly rejected Iran’s request to jointly charge service fees on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to NY Post.
- South Korea prepared a plan to deploy non-combat naval assets to the Strait of Hormuz, according to Chosun Daily. South Korea’s Blue House later commented that practical contribution options under review for the Strait of Hormuz include military measures and said claims that South Korea has provided no assistance on Hormuz are not true.
- IRNA reported several explosions were heard in Iraq’s Erbil province.
- Israeli quadcopter drone opens fire in the Zeitoun neighbourhood, southeast of Gaza City.
- Yemeni sources reported heavy clashes between Houthis and Saudi-affiliated mercenaries on the Taiz axis and on the Muqbatah front and the western coast, while it was also reported that Yemen forces seized strategic areas in Taiz province.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks rallied on Thursday, with gains broad-based and with outperformance in the Nasdaq. Sectors predominantly finished in the green, led by Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services and Financials, while Tech also rallied, with Materials and Energy the only sectors to close lower. T-notes were firmer across the curve, particularly at the front end, after dovish remarks from Fed Governor Waller, who kept the door open to a September hold following hawkish commentary from Chair Warsh last week. The influential Governor was optimistic on inflation, noting that if disinflation continues, he would support holding rates steady at the next meeting. However, he cautioned that a hot inflation print would see him consider a hike.
- SPX +1.06% at 7,748, NDX +1.16% at 29,482, DJI +1.18% at 53,691, RUT +0.51% at 2,968.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US Trade Representative Greer said Canada wanted more tariff relief and that he’s had a couple of texts and outreach with Canada, but hasn’t had negotiations with Canada since. Greer also stated he met with Mexico’s Trade Minister on Thursday and that Mexico is eager to do things to protect North America from Chinese imports. Furthermore, Greer said the US is looking to reduce its deficit with China and will probably make agriculture announcements during Chinese President Xi’s visit, adding that he is optimistic about the US-China relationship.
- USTR Greer warned that the UK choosing alignment with the EU over America is an issue for a US trade deal, according to FT.
- US lawmakers were urged by an auto industry group to pass a comprehensive ban on Chinese vehicles before year-end.
- South Korea’s Interior Minister said South Korea and the US are continuing chip tariff talks.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump posted on Truth Social a request from Senator Grassley for Trump to help US farmers as he did for consumers of pharmaceutical products.
- US President Trump announced current Assistant Secretary of the Army for Civil Works Adam Telle will become Acting Secretary of the Army with immediate effect.
- US President Trump’s administration asked the Supreme Court to allow mail-in ballot restrictions.
- Norway’s USD 2.3tln sovereign wealth fund manager has proposed an overhaul of its government bond portfolio that could see it cut its holdings of US Treasuries by about USD 80bln, as it looks to other types of debts to try to boost returns, according to FT.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks took impetus from the positive global risk sentiment and lower yield environment after Fed’s Waller kept a September rate hold in play and following no major new geopolitical developments, while participants look ahead to the key US jobs data.
- ASX 200 lagged with price action rangebound as the outperformance in tech and telecoms was overshadowed by weakness in mining, resources, materials, utilities and energy, while a quiet calendar and lack of drivers kept the index in check.
- Nikkei 225 shrugged off the disappointing Household Spending data from Japan and briefly returned to above the 65,000 level amid lower yields and after a source report noted that the BoJ favours a 25bps rate hike this month and a flexible future pace, which helped ease concerns of a more aggressive move.
- KOSPI rallied amid strength in tech heavyweights with notable gains in SK Hynix, while Samsung Electronics was also firmer after industry data showed it narrowed the gap with market leader SK Hynix in the global HBM market during Q2.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned with the Hong Kong benchmark spearheading the advances alongside strength in property, tech and auto stocks, while the gains in the mainland were limited after the PBoC continued to drain liquidity with today’s open market operations amount remaining at zero.
- US equity futures paused overnight after recent advances and with the NFP report on the horizon.
- European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open with EuroStoxx 50 futures unchanged after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3% on Thursday.
FX
- DXY traded indecisively and was contained within tight parameters near the prior day’s trough after slipping beneath the 99.00 level as yields declined in reaction to comments from Fed’s Waller, who kept a September rate hold in play, while participants now look to the key US jobs data to gauge the health of the labour market, the economy and potential clues on Fed policy.
- EUR/USD held on to recent gains after it benefited from the dollar weakness and returned to the 1.1600 handle, while the single currency was unfazed by reports that ECB hawk Schnabel could leave her role at the ECB before her term ends to move to the IMF.
- GBP/USD marginally extended on advances after returning to above the 1.3500 level following comments from Fed’s Waller, while BoE’s Pill also explained why he supported raising the bank rate to 4%.
- USD/JPY recouped some losses after sliding as the yen recently outperformed due to intervention risks and hawkish BoJ rate hike bets, while Household Spending data disappointed and a source report noted that the BoJ is favouring a 25bps hike and a flexible future pace.
- Antipodeans were mildly firmer amid the dollar weakness and positive risk sentiment.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7787 vs Exp. 6.7093 (prev. 6.7807)
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures paused overnight after gaining in the aftermath of Fed Waller’s comments, in which he said he would support holding the policy rate steady in September if August inflation data shows continued progress, but would consider a hike if inflation is hot, while he also stated they can wait one meeting and that there is little cost in doing so. Nonetheless, markets now await the key US jobs data, which could provide a further impulse on September rate expectations.
- Bund futures pulled back following the prior day’s mild rebound and failed to sustain the reclaim of the 123.00 level, while participants also look ahead to German Factory Orders and EU Retail Sales data.
- 10yr JGB futures tracked the recent upside in global peers and with a previous report noting that the BoJ is favouring a 25bps hike and a flexible future pace, which contradicts the suggestion by Board Member Takata, who had left the door open for a larger move this month.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures kept afloat but with gains limited following the previous day’s two-way trade and with a lack of major new geopolitical developments, while US VP Vance said during a White House briefing that he would not call the Iran operation a war and declined to offer a timeline for an end to the conflict.
- Iraq’s SOMO said August oil exports were 73mln bbls, the highest since the start of the Iran war, while Iraq’s oil revenues in August stood at around USD 4.5bln.
- Iran’s Oil Minister said they started drilling over 30 wells in South Pars, and some were successful.
- Spot gold took a breather after extending its rebound yesterday to briefly return to above the USD 4,500/oz level amid a weaker dollar, while attention turns to the US jobs data for potential clues on Fed policy.
- Copper futures stalled after recently advancing alongside the positive risk sentiment.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin was indecisive overnight after surging around 6% yesterday to above the USD 81,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese PM Takaichi will keep Finance Minister Katayama during a cabinet reshuffle.
- Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said interest rate moves are determined by various factors in markets and they will control FY bond issuance properly, while she added that FY27 budget requests total about JPY 143tln and don’t represent a large increase. Katayama said they are closely watching bond markets with a high sense of urgency and noted that there were no specific requests from US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Furthermore, she said Bessent assessed PM Takaichi’s economic policies very highly and has long held a view that the yen has been undervalued, due largely to interest rate differentials.
- Japan’s top FX diplomat Mimura affirmed they are always in contact with US authorities and continue to be ready on FX, with no change in the fighting stance on FX.
- RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk said a rate hike in October or December is still open, but stated a hike is more likely in December and that the RBNZ wants to support continuing improvement in the economy.
- RBNZ MPC member Hansen said Wednesday’s rate hike was a clear consensus decision and that further policy decisions will depend on trends in a wide range of economic datasets, while he is watching for surprises in data, not a single indicator, before deciding what should happen in October.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Household Spending MM (Jul) 0.5% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. -6.4%)
- Japanese Household Spending YY (Jul) -3.6% vs. Exp. -1.6% (Prev. -3.3%)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said US negotiators are to visit Kyiv and Moscow, while Ukraine expects a meeting with the US in the coming days.
- Ukraine’s air force announced a jet drone detected in the Kyiv region and that guided bombs struck the Donetsk region, while it was separately reported that a UAV attack caused a fire at an oil depot in Sochi, according to TASS.
OTHER
- US President Trump reiterated that Spain doesn’t do what they should in NATO, while he added that they did the right thing on Iran and just want the war to end in Ukraine.
- US issued fresh Cuba-related sanctions, while US Secretary of State Rubio said the Cuban regime continues to pose a deep threat to the US.
- Argentina’s President Milei will sign a decree sanctioning companies working on oil exploration of the Falkland Islands, while he stated that the Falkland’s Sea Lion Project presents a clear danger and plans to build a naval base in Tierra del Fuego.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- European defence officials are pushing back against EU attempts to cut reliance on US tech giants and warned the move could leave Europe with inferior systems, greater cyber risks and problems in co-ordinating with NATO allies, according to FT.
2.NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA/
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA
JAPAN
3. CHINA/
CHINA/USA
NOT GOOD!!
Chinese Rare-Earth Suppliers Halt US Shipments As Decoupling Fears Surge
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 12:35 PM
The scenario we viewed as inevitable appears to be materializing, validating our decision to intensify coverage of the US-China decoupling theme and the Western-aligned miners positioned to supply the West if Beijing further weaponizes critical material exports, as it has throughout the Trump 2.0 era.
A Reuters report on Friday morning revealed that some Chinese rare-earth suppliers are refusing to ship material to US customers, citing fear of retaliation from Beijing.
The report continued:
A handful of Chinese suppliers have refused to ship rare earths to U.S. companies since early August when China imposed sanctions on the Responsible Business Alliance (RBA), a U.S. supply chain monitor, a separate source with direct knowledge of the situation said.
With China deploying its own trade compliance weapons, the companies were wary of punishment from Beijing for complying with the due diligence framework of the Responsible Minerals Initiative (RMI), a global mineral supply chain audit programme connected with the RBA, the source said.
Other Chinese rare earths companies had already stopped shipments to the U.S. to avoid entanglement in geopolitics in recent months, two other sources familiar with the trade said.
One cited four instances where Chinese firms declined to send material for fear it could be resold to banned users.
The exact number of blocked suppliers and shipments remains unknown, and that ambiguity is itself part of Beijing’s asymmetric leverage campaign against the US.
China does not need to announce a formal trade embargo to choke critical material flows. Export controls, licensing delays, and the threat of regulatory retaliation can halt shipments to US importers almost overnight.
Really, Beijing retains a kill switch inside US defense, aerospace, semiconductor, and energy supply chains, forcing companies to scramble for substitutes only after supplies have collapsed.
That’s why we’ve sounded the alarm in recent weeks that the decoupling theme should be top of mind for Wall Street desks, with our coverage focused on tungsten and germanium, both of which have been restricted from export to the US and are colliding with a rearmament cycle in the West.
Here’s what we’ve reported over the last few weeks leading up to the Reuters headline this morning:
- The AI Boom Runs On Tungsten, But Global Supplies Are “Running On Empty”
- US Tungsten Scrap Export Ban Takes Effect As Global Supply Crisis Deepens
- What Happens When A Metal The West Can’t Live Without Runs Short
- The West’s Answer To Break China’s Tungsten Stranglehold Before Historic Rearmament Cycle Ramps
- China’s Tungsten Chokehold Turns Almonty Into a Critical-Metal Lifeline
- China’s Record Ship Swarm Around Taiwan Sends Decoupling Alarm To Wall Street
China’s tungsten export restrictions have sent European prices soaring…
Late last month, the US Commerce Department halted exports of tungsten scrap and shredded battery material in a defensive move to retain scarce supplies inside the country. The move merely shows how rapidly Washington is shifting from the free-trade status quo toward resource security as domestic supplies dwindle and an urgent race emerges across the West to procure new ex-China supplies.
The Sino-US bilateral relationship deteriorated yet again this week after Beijing derailed the G20 joint communiqué over a single phrase, “non-market,” only weeks after the Trump administration sanctioned Chinese entities linked to Iran.
All eyes now turn to the Trump-Xi meeting in Washington later this month.
The decoupling theme should be top of mind on Wall Street as China restricts critical-material flows to the West. These materials are essential building blocks not only for next year’s rearmament supercycle but also for AI, reindustrialization trends, efforts to power up America, and even physical AI.
END
China Maps South China Sea Floor At Twice The Resolution Of Global Models
Thursday, Sep 03, 2026 – 11:00 PM
China says it has dramatically improved its ability to chart the ocean floor, producing detailed seabed maps that outperform widely used global models in both resolution and accuracy, according to the South China Morning Post.
The advance is the product of more than two decades of work by a research group led by Professor Wu Ziyin at the Second Institute of Oceanography. Rather than relying on a single new survey, the scientists found ways to reconcile huge amounts of older information collected by different vessels, instruments and mapping systems. The result is a much sharper digital picture of the underwater landscape around China, including parts of the contested South China Sea.
Researchers say their maps offer roughly double the resolution of leading global alternatives and can be two to five times more accurate. That improvement can reveal smaller underwater formations and pinpoint their locations more precisely…information with applications ranging from offshore energy and earthquake research to navigation, resource exploration and military operations.
The strategic importance of knowing what lies beneath the surface became particularly clear in 2021, when the USS Connecticut struck an underwater mountain while operating submerged in the South China Sea. Eleven sailors were injured and the nuclear-powered submarine suffered significant damage. While a US Navy investigation faulted the crew’s voyage planning, the incident also illustrated the dangers posed by gaps in existing seabed charts.
SCMP writes that China has meanwhile worked to reduce its dependence on foreign ocean-survey technology. The program produced domestically designed multi-beam sonar equipment along with autonomous underwater vehicles capable of surveying at depths approaching 6,000 metres. Wu said China had once depended heavily on imported systems but now produces comparable equipment at a fraction of the cost.
“Our equipment breaks the monopoly of Western countries, with leading performance,” Wu said.
The broader project has also catalogued 769 underwater geographic features, many given names inspired by Chinese history, mythology and literature. China plans to publish an English-language version of its seabed atlas, while its marine surveying technology has already found commercial and government applications and has reportedly been exported to Russia, Japan and Singapore.
Wu characterized the transition from foreign dependence to domestic production as “a true qualitative leap.”
The achievement comes as much of the ocean floor remains surprisingly poorly documented. Less than 30% of the world’s oceans have been surveyed in detail, meaning the majority of Earth’s underwater terrain is still inadequately mapped.
end
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
EU/
EU/USA
Bessent Announces EU ‘Officially Joined’ Operation Economic Outcast Against Iran
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 09:25 AM
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on X Friday that the EU has “officially joined” Operation Economic Outcast, the sweeping US sanctions campaign to cut Iran out of the international banking system and completely isolate it from the global economy.
“The European Union has officially joined Operation Economic Outcast and we appreciate their strong and early stance,” Bessent wrote; however, the European Commission seemed to actually reveal no change in the bloc’s measures.
“The world is sending a clear message to the Iranian regime: We will not stop until every remaining financial lifeline has been severed,” he added.
The EU statement cited by Bessent was published a few days ago when G20 finance ministers and central bank governors opened meetings in Asheville, North Carolina – coming off his prior ‘Economic D-Day’ announcement against Iran.
The statement in question seems to stop short of Brussels’ real and full commitment, but is a mere endorsement. The bloc lays out that it “welcomes efforts at ensuring that Iran ceases its destabilizing activities and engages in peace negotiations with good faith, also through additional economic pressure, including through the US-led Operation Economic Outcast.”
It seems to also back Europe’s existing measures, as it further states the EU “remains ready to take further measures, where necessary,“ and pledges to “continue to work closely with the United States and other G7 and international partners to maintain pressure on Iran.”
But from there the statement diverges from Bessent, saying the bloc “believes continued diplomatic efforts are necessary to reach a peace settlement, restore regional stability and ensure full freedom of navigation and safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Al Jazeera is among those outlets expressing skepticism at Bessent’s claim:
On Thursday evening, Bessent thanked the EU for joining the economic campaign, saying that the world was “sending a clear message to Iran”.
However, the statement from the EU doesn’t clearly say that, but does state that the bloc remains “ready to take further measures, where necessary, to safeguard its security and interests”.
The White House has been signaling that it at this point has little hope of revived direct talks between Tehran and Washington, and nothing much on the negotiating from has been reported for several days, especially after this week’s flare-up in fighting.
Officials continue to underscore that sanctions and the blockade are really beginning to ‘bite’ – in a familiar refrain and talking point that was already being echoed for months. But new reporting claims Iranian officials themselves are increasingly conceding this. According to Reuters:
A U.S. campaign to throttle Iran’s economy by blockading its oil exports and stopping sanctions evasion is growing increasingly difficult to withstand, three senior Iranian sources said. Washington has in recent weeks sought to ratchet up the economic pressure on Tehran, in an effort to extract concessions in any future negotiation that six months of conflict have so far failed to secure
It should be noted that many of the mainstream media’s predictions based on the usual “anonymous sources say…” – especially forecasts that include timelines – have fallen completely flat time and again throughout the war:
Meanwhile, the country’s financial squeeze is itself biting into Tehran’s efforts to get around the sanctions regime, leaving less cash to pay the high premiums required to skirt sanctions illicitly, the sources said.
The rial has fallen to record lows over recent days and one senior source said Iran only has another two months’ supply of gasoline, which has to be imported despite domestic oil production because of limited refining capacity.
Also, Vance says don’t call it a “war”…
But leadership in Tehran has been touting that it is ready to face down and endure a long war on all fronts. The Associated Press recently reported, “After six months of war, Iran’s leadership has coalesced around a hard core of military generals and clerics long entrenched in the ruling theocracy. They are ready for a potentially long confrontation with the U.S. and determined to prevent any unrest at home.”
Meanwhile, Tehran is publicly sparring with Jordan, in the wake of the latest Iranian ballistic missile launches on key US bases in the Arab country. Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi had accused Iran of acting with ‘pre-meditation’ – batting down its assertion of necessary ‘retaliation’ against US assets.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi then blasted Safadi and the Jordanian government, writing on X, according to a translation: “How much time does the Jordanian Foreign Minister believe Iran should wait before responding to an aggressor that respects neither Arab sovereignty nor Iranian sovereignty? And is he truly unaware that Arab airspace, lands, and waters were used in the initial American attacks that resulted in the killing of innocent Iranians?”
UK
SPAIN
Spain Gasses Its Own People; Police Probe Migrant/Soros NGO Acid Buys In Ceuta
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 08:05 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,
Spanish National Police have been examining a bulk purchase of hydrochloric acid and aluminium foil in Ceuta after supermarket staff flagged a large group of migrants, reported as mostly Moroccan, buying the two products together.
Spanish outlets citing police sources identified activists from the NGO No Name Kitchen as accompanying those buyers.
Investigators have been trying to establish whether the materials were meant for homemade “acid bombs” – plastic bottles packed with acid and foil that produce a small blast, gas and corrosive spray – and whether anyone helped hide what was bought.
The devices match the bottles of corrosive liquid already thrown at Spanish soldiers and at local protesters in the days around the shop run.
The chemistry is crude and already in the open record. Police sources, describe aguafuerte – hydrochloric acid, also sold as salfumán – plus aluminium foil, sometimes with acetone, going into plastic bottles.
Thrown, the mix over-pressurises, pops and throws irritant gas and corrosive liquid. That is the device Spanish media say has been used against army patrols and against residents marching through Villajovita.
No Name Kitchen denies any role. Its coordinator, Ric Fernández, says the group packs 1,200 to 1,300 hot meals a day, buys foil for food and kitchen lining, and uses small amounts of solvent for cleaning, not “industrial quantities” for weapons.
Identified activists were not arrested because the products are legal to buy.
Interior officials, speaking to RTVE, have also denied that police or the Civil Guard are investigating “any NGO” for supplying explosive materials. That official line sits next to days of Spanish crime reporting in which officers are described identifying NNK members after the purchase.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s government has repeatedly insisted Ceuta is back under control. Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares has said “practically the entirety of those who entered Ceuta have already returned to Morocco.” Video from the enclave a month later shows tents, wrecked beaches and a city that looks like an earthquake has hit it.
No Name Kitchen, which campaigns against European border enforcement, was already in trouble before this. On 23 August two of its activists, a Canadian and a German, were detained at Benítez beach. Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska said they had encouraged “violent groups” – illegal migrants – to respond aggressively to police and had resisted officers.
The NGO says the pair were filming. El Faro de Ceuta separately reported a French activist detained in the same neighbourhood after clashing with police. Viral clips accused volunteers of handing out pepper spray. Fernández told Newtral that was a “hoax to discredit us” and that the group has never bought pepper spray or “any device that could incite violence.”
Conservative Spanish media and accounts across X pointed to DevelopmentAid listings that name George Soros’ Open Society Foundations among No Name Kitchen’s funding agencies, and to the group’s old place inside Border Violence Monitoring Network, which has taken OSF money.
NNK says it does not take direct Open Society money for Ceuta and that any OSF link ran through an older network.
Meanwhile, native Spaniards continue to rise up in revolt against the government’s facilitation of mass migration.https://modernity.news/2026/08/27/uprising-in-ceuta-locals-have-had-enough-of-migrant-invasion/embed/
On Wednesday, protests were recorded in more than 200 towns and citie. In Ceuta itself around 20,000 marched. They chanted “Ceuta is not for sale, Ceuta must be defended” and “expel the invaders.” Placards read “SOS. Europe, save us from our traitor government.” Outside Congress later that night the line was shorter still: “It’s not immigration, it’s invasion.”
Maria Sánchez, a 47-year-old housewife, told AFP in Ceuta: “We are Spanish, we don’t want any government to abandon us again like they’ve abandoned us.”
David Hernández, a 45-year-old teacher, told Reuters: “The response has been inadequate, late and, to top it all, has involved a complete dereliction of duty on the part of the government. We cannot be second-class citizens, and our border must not be sidelined.”
Another resident, who gave only the name Lola, said the situation was “spiralling out of control” and that “there’s a point where this will become a powder keg.”
In Madrid, an eatimated150,000 matched through the streets chanting “Sánchez to prison” and “Invaders – go home.”
PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo stood in that crowd and said: “A Spanish city has been invaded, occupied and, unfortunately, this happened with the knowledge of the Government of Spain.” He and Vox leader Santiago Abascal both accused Sánchez of lying to Spaniards and of being a “traitor to Spain” and a “lackey of Morocco.”
Madrid mayor José Luis Martínez-Almeida said: “Ceuta is Spanish and will not be abandoned.” Regional president Isabel Díaz Ayuso said the government had “done nothing but lie since they arrived” and that “they have abandoned us, not only the people of Ceuta, but the whole of Spain before the eyes of the world.”
As a section of the protesters continued to march toward Congress, police reportedly fired rubber bullets and tear gas.
The state that could not keep 70,000 people from pouring into a Spanish city unimpeded found the resources to gas citizens who object.
Thursday, Sánchez went to Congress to insist the executive “has nothing to hide.” Claiming that it is “absurd to think that the government knew and did nothing.” He claimed more than 90 percent of arrivals were returned within 72 hours – “one of the fastest return processes in European history” – and blamed social-media rumours plus a misread Supreme Court ruling that stopped immediate sea pushbacks.
He again said he had no indication Morocco organised the surge. Ceuta and Melilla, he added, will remain Spanish “until the end of time.”
The Council of Ministers has now waved through a €309 million emergency package – housing, services, extra police – about 16 percent of Ceuta’s output for the rest of the year.
Critics charge that tent camps for 1,500 adults do not house 5,000 to 10,000 people who have already learned that staying in place works. Asylum claims, minor-protection rules and “ordinary return procedure” are how a surge becomes a settlement.
A government that treats border defence as a branding exercise, then gasses the public for noticing and objecting, is asking for more unrest and more chaos.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
END
GERMANY
Germany’s Anti-Immigration AfD Party Reaches Record Support Days Before Pivotal State Election
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 02:00 AM
The Alternative for Germany has reached a record high of 43 percent in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt for the first time in an Insa poll, which was commissioned by Nius newspaper.
Sven Schulze (CDU, left), Minister President of Saxony-Anhalt, and Ulrich Siegmund (AfD, right), the top candidates, are on stage for the TV debate organized by “Volksstimme” and “Mitteldeutscher Zeitung,” where they are discussing the issues. (Photo by Hendrik Schmidt/picture alliance via Getty Images)
The same poll found that the Christian Democrats (CDU) would receive 22 percent, the Left Party 12 percent, and the Social Democrats (SPD) 7 percent.
The Green Party would receive 5 percent, allowing it to cross the threshold to enter parliament.
Other parties would not have enough votes to enter, including the BSW at 4 percent and the FDP at 3 percent.
While the polling results put the AfD in first place by a wide margin, it also would not be enough for the AfD to win a clear majority in the state parliament.
While 43 percent of voters said they would back the AfD, another 5 percent of voters said they could imagine voting for the party.
If the Greens come under the 5 percent mark, the AfD may still have a chance to secure an absolute majority even with only 43 percent of the vote.
END
5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL TBN
END
ISRAEL/IRAN/HEZBOLLAH.HAMAS
Bibi Makes Crystal Clear That Toppling Iran Is Israel’s ‘Central Mission, Within Reach’
Thursday, Sep 03, 2026 – 09:20 PM
The Trump White House is reportedly looking to try and keep things ‘quiet’ related to the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz leading into the November midterms, after an intense flare-up in fighting this week.
“Top aides to President Donald Trump are pushing to keep the Iran war from escalating before November’s midterm elections to staunch Republican electoral losses, four people familiar with the discussions said, a strategy already under strain as the U.S. and Iran exchanged back-and-forth attacks overnight,” Reuters reports.
However, over in Israel the war rhetoric is still cranked to a ten. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it crystal clear in fresh Thursday remarks that total ‘regime collapse’ remains his ‘central’ goal.
He declared that the “central mission” is to topple the Iranian regime, asserting that the goal is “within reach,” during a Rosh Hashanah event attended by the IDF General Staff Forum in Tel Aviv.
“The regime is now faltering. It is weaker than ever. It is fighting for its survival,” he claimed. He also described this was partly due to Israel’s successful Gaza campaign going back to Oct.7, 2023, and the anti-Hezbollah mission.
“I am confident in our ability to remove this threat once and for all – in other words, to topple this regime,” Netanyahu said.
“That is the central mission that still lies ahead of us, but it is close. It is not impossible. It is within reach,” he emphasized.
“It is no coincidence that they are not attacking us. They are attacking everyone except us. They know our strength, the force of our blows and our determination,” he continued.
Israel’s defense ministry has lately made clear it will unleash militarily on Iran if the Islamic Republic dares to attack Israel, even if it’s some kind of ‘limited’ assault on Israeli assets and interests.
Netanyahu also warned, “Don’t mess with us. If you have learned anything, don’t mess with us. We have the strength, the determination and the internal unity to defeat you.”
But Israel clearly wants the United States to continue to do the heavy lifting. Typically its leadership gets louder in making the case for anti-Tehran escalation anytime Washington seems to back off the military pressure.
And so it’s no coincidence that this week…
Israeli officials have all the while continued to tout that Mossad assets have been in place inside the Islamic Republic, hinting that some kind of ‘uprising’ could take place.
And yet after six months of war, there really hasn’t been much in the way of a groundswell of protest action in the streets. It remains a martial law situation, and the fact that the Iranian population itself is under the US bombs has naturally translated into citizens not wanting to be seen rooting for the enemy. The whole war-time situation also essentially grants authorities more ‘power’ to crack down, as it typically goes.
END
ISRAEL/TERRORIST: JERUSALEM
Police thwart reported stabbing terror attack near Damascus Gate in Old City, no injuries reported
The terrorist approached security personnel stationed in the area and reportedly attempted to stab them before being shot by nearby police officers, according to Israeli media.
sraeli security forces at the scene of a terror attack near Damascus Gate in Jerusalem on June 16, 2017.(photo credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)ByMIRIAM SELA-EITAMSEPTEMBER 4, 2026 04:20Updated: SEPTEMBER 4, 2026 04:37
Israel Police thwarted a stabbing terror attack near the Damascus Gate area of the Old City of Jerusalem early Friday morning.
The terrorist approached security personnel stationed in the area and reportedly attempted to stab them before being shot by nearby police officers, according to Israeli media.
No injuries have yet been reported.
END
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Ukrainian Sea Drone Destroys Russian Ship Vital To CPC Oil Repairs
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 05:45 AM
Tit-for-tat attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea as well as Sea of Azov have been raging all summer, but Ukrainian forces are now strategically going after smaller ships which yet play an outsized role in repair and logistics related to damaged Russian and central Asian oil infrastructure.
“Ukraine attacked a small service ship involved in planned repair works at the key CPC oil terminal in the Black Sea, a person with knowledge of the matter said,” Bloomberg reports Thursday.
“The Nefrit has almost completed works at one mooring and was set to start replacing some equipment at another, the person said on condition of anonymity as the information is not public,” the report continues.
Crucially, “The attack puts the scheduled works in limbo and raises uncertainty over CPC’s future crude-loading operations, the person said.”
Various videos which have emerged showing that the multipurpose vessel was hit by a naval drone as it was docked in the faraway port of Sochi.
Local media has also said that “earlier, reports claimed that a series of explosions occurred near the port during the attack. A Russian Pantsir SPAAGM system was also spotted near one of the strike locations.”
Starting in July, all hell broke loose when, in tandem with strikes on Russian shipping in the Sea of Azov, Ukrainian attacks on the Novorossiysk CPC terminal forced Kazakhstan to repeatedly shut down the pipeline, causing shipping and insurance rates to more than double. CPC’s loading of tankers has plunged.
Hence it’s clear that Ukraine is seeking to keep Russia’s Black Sea oil operations crippled, also as it continues to try and hit refineries and loading terminals by air via long-range drones.
Needless to say, the now destroyed Nefrit vessel was vital to rapid repair operations connected to Kazakhstan’s crude exports at offshore rigs, and so these efforts will inevitably be significantly slower.
The Trump administration’s attention to oil supplies coming from Kazakhstan must be placed in the context of the other war and hotspot sill raging: the six-month old war on Iran.
The administration has been pulling out all the stops to moderate fuel prices that have surged with Iran’s lengthy de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Washington needs alternatives to Gulf oil to keep flowing.
Russia has been waging its own war on Ukrainian shipping and its key ports, particularly the vital national port at Odesa. As part of the latest, Russia has on Thursday hit two vessels with cargo bound for Ukraine in the Black Sea, Interfax freshly reports.
END
RUSSIA/FINLAND
Finnish President Just Made Some Surprisingly Frank Comments About Russia
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 05:00 AM
He argued that it’s not plotting to test NATO’s resolve, its resilience to immense hardships “should never be underestimated”, suggested that the conflict will end without Ukraine recovering its lost territories, praised the CIA chief for visiting Russia, and called for “someone in Europe” to follow suit.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb bucked the trend of fearmongering about Russia in his interview with Bild. Instead of claiming that it’s plotting to test NATO’s resolve like American media reported was the reason why the CIA chief recently paid an unannounced visit to Moscow, he described such talk as part of Russia’s “information warfare” against Europe. Stubb insisted that his intelligence doesn’t indicate any such plans and argued that Russia wouldn’t attack the world’s most powerful military bloc anyhow.
He also pointed to the unlikelihood of Russia “suddenly mobilizing” forces for a two-front conflict with Ukraine and NATO even though he still believes that a mobilization directed towards Ukraine will occur this fall despite United Russia Chairman Dmitry Medvedev recently denying that there’s any need to. Another of the surprisingly solid points that Stubb made about Russia had to do with its resilience to immense hardships and warned that this “should never be underestimated” by its foes.
He also suggested that Ukraine won’t recover its lost territories upon describing victory for it as simply “surviving, remaining independent, and remaining a sovereign state” but still urged its allies to continue supporting it for their unspecified sake of their own security. Wrapping everything up, Stubb praised the CIA chief’s recent unannounced visit to Moscow for expanding bilateral dialogue in “different formats”, which led to his clarion call for “someone in Europe” to “resume dialogue with Russia” too.
Stubb’s last point echoes what he intriguingly told local media a week prior about how “At some point, dialogue will have to be established on the European side, and perhaps the most important role in this will be played by countries that share a border with Russia.” This followed reports that Britain, France, and Germany – collectively known as the E3 – are preparing to resume dialogue with Russia. It was thus analyzed here that the E3 and the Intermarium might open up rival dialogues with Russia.
The Intermarium refers to the modern-day revival of interwar Poland’s vision of an anti-Soviet alliance between their country, the Baltic States, and Finland, all of which border Russia in the present. Therefore, the abovementioned analysis concluded that Stubb might lead the Intermarium’s dialogue with Russia since regional leader Poland’s government is irreparably divided between the conservative president and the liberal prime minister, which makes it unlikely to agree on this ultra-sensitive issue.
Stubb also expressed interest earlier this year in serving as the EU’s envoy for talks with Russia back when this role was first discussed among the bloc’s members, but the problem is that Putin suggested shortly thereafter that this should be “someone who has not badmouthed us”.
As it turns out, Stubb was recently condemned by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova as a terrorist for justifying Ukraine’s attacks against civilian infrastructure, which might disqualify him from this role.
At the same time, Putin might calculate that it’s better for dialogue to occur with Stubb if he initiates it on behalf of Finland, the Intermarium, or the EU as a whole than to rebuff him in that scenario, so the possibility of him entering into some sort of talks with Russia in the future can’t confidently be ruled out.
While all EU leaders apart from Slovakia’s Robert Fico are adversarial to Russia, Stubb is the most pragmatic among them, so he might ultimately be tasked with this role or play it on his own initiative.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
Maybe a chance for peace!
Putin Says There’s A Chance Of Ukraine Peace Deal, Wants To Restore Full US Relations
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 09:10 AM
Authored by Guy Birchall via The Epoch Times,
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sept. 3 that there was “a chance” of achieving peace with Ukraine and expressed a desire to rekindle relations with the United States.
Putin was speaking at a session of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok when he made the comments.
On the subject of Ukraine, the Russian president said Moscow was “grateful to everyone who is trying to contribute to resolving this issue,” and he said that in his opinion there is “a chance” of peace, according to Russian state news agency TASS.
He said that for hostilities to end between Moscow and Kyiv, “Russia and Ukraine must first reach an agreement” between themselves, and he acknowledged that “all other countries are ready to support and assist” in achieving that.
The Russian leader also revealed that contact between Moscow and Kyiv was ongoing via the two nations’ intelligence services, but he said that it was difficult for him to say “to what extent these contacts are leading to a peace agreement.”
Regarding Russo – American relations, Putin confirmed that Moscow was still in contact with Washington and said he hoped that such contact would continue.
Alluding to the recent trip by CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow for meetings on Aug. 25, the Russian president said that everyone was aware of the cooperation between American and Russian intelligence agencies and administration officials appointed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
He said that the collaboration was “working” and expressed a hope that it will “ultimately lead to a positive outcome.”
He further stated, “[Moscow is] in favor of restoring relations with the United States in full, but this does not depend solely on us; it depends on the American side.”
However, he stressed that he believed that Trump is “determined to engage in such positive, constructive work.”
On Aug. 26, Trump confirmed Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow for meetings on Aug. 25.
The president, however, dismissed all rumors about the purpose of Ratcliffe’s trip, denying that he was sent to warn the Kremlin against testing NATO’s resolve, striking England, or disregarding Iranian sanctions.
“John Ratcliffe is a fantastic guy. He’s the head of the CIA, and he is not in there for any of the things that you said. Now, something may come out, you know, out of it. We’re working very hard to get that war ended, and frankly, they both want to see it ended at this point,” Trump said.
On the topic of meeting with Putin, Trump said on Sept. 2 that such an occasion would occur only after peace was achieved between Moscow and Kyiv.
“We’d do it if I wanted it, but I want to do it when we’re ready to do a peace deal,” he told reporters in the Oval Office.
He said that the United States wanted to have good relations with both warring parties, saying it would be “great for business.”
“They ought to stop that stupid war,” he said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that his country wanted peace but wouldn’t surrender, in an Aug. 24 speech in Kyiv marking Ukraine’s Independence Day.
On Sept. 1, Zelenskyy said Ukraine supports “every step toward peace,” in a post on X.
“The war needs to end, and leaders are right to tell Putin this. So, for the sake of diplomacy and negotiations, whenever our partners approach us about this, we will ensure that Russian skies are cleared of drones for specified periods of time and along specified routes,” he said.
“Safety will return to Russia’s skies when there is real movement toward peace. For now, the skies over Russia are for drones – not for civilian aviation.”
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Russia Tries To Assassinate Ukraine’s SBU Chief With Unprecedented Drone Attack On Kyiv HQ
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 12:15 PM
The Kremlin has long previewed that its next escalation step against Ukraine would be to start attacking ‘decision-making centers’, or headquarters and government buildings. That moment has clearly begun and is now in an active phase, also as strikes ramp up on the key southern port of Odesa, as well as on Ukraine-linked cargo and other shipping. On Friday a Russian drone slammed into the headquarters of Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) in central Kyiv.
The SBU is the country’s top domestic security and intelligence service – somewhat akin to the FBI in America. It primarily oversees counterintelligence, counterterrorism, espionage investigations, as well as engages in some law-enforcement functions, especially concerning top level crime including among government officials. It has been the mastermind behind multiple high-level deadly and destructive attacks on Russia.
President Zelensky soon after the attack announced and confirmed that the SBU’s central building on Volodymyrska Street, in the heart of iconic downtown near St. Sophia Cathedral, was struck. Flames and smoke have been seen billowing high over the high-secure central district.
“I spoke with the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, Oleksandr Poklad. Unfortunately, a Russian drone struck the central building of the Security Service of Ukraine on Volodymyrska Street in Kyiv, across from St. Sophia Cathedral,” Zelensky said.
“The drone was aimed directly at the office of the Head of the Security Service in that building,” he added. Zelensky has ordered his military to mount a “tangible response and, where possible, one that mirrors this strike, to the Russians once everything is ready. Our military will support this response.”
If accurate, this sends an alarming and resounding message – that not only is Moscow now willing to directly target top headquarters buildings, but that it’s ready to assassinate intelligence directors.
President Zelensky said the drone had precisely targeted the office of the head of the SBU service, Oleksandr Poklad, but he had survived the attack —The Times
European media reports of the immediate aftermath, “Zelenskyy said emergency services were attending the scene. There was no immediate information on casualties.”
A large explosion was widely heard among bystanders during a mid-afternoon air raid siren in the capital city, after which Mayor Vitali Klitschko initially reported a fire and said emergency crews were headed to the scene. Several drones had been inbound during the attack incident.
According to some of the latest reporting via CNN:
The daytime strike – the first time the SBU building has been hit in the four-and-a-half year conflict – came after days of near continuous aerial assaults by Russia on the Ukrainian capital.
Authorities said 12 people were injured in the attack and that emergency services were at the scene.
This comes after more than a week of consecutive nightly drone and missile attacks on the capital, as Russia indicates it is ‘repaying’ Ukraine for its own constant long-range drone attacks which have wreaked havoc on oil refineries and industrial sites this summer.
“At least 53 people have been killed and 134 injured in Kyiv city and the wider Kyiv region since the start of these near non-stop attacks last month,” CNN also notes.
Unprecedented: Downtown SBU headquarters on fire…
This even could serve as the catalyst that gets Zelensky’s Western backers to rush more anti-air missiles and systems – such as the Patriot – to Ukraine. “It is rare for government buildings in central Kyiv to be reached by Russian strikes, especially in broad daylight,“ The Guardian underscores. “The explosion from the hit on the SBU building could be heard several from several blocks away.”
One thing is clear: the gloves are indeed coming off. And just as Trump may be trying to de-escalate the Iran war ahead of November midterms in the US, the Russia-Ukraine war just massively escalated past a likely point of no return.
END
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
COVID VACCINE INJURIES: MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
Rabobank: “The World As We Knew It No Longer Exists”
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 09:40 AM
Via Rabobank,
As we move towards the end of another trading week, most action was again dominated by the now ubiquitous market bugbear of geopolitics. Central banks are trying to reassert themselves, but under that shadow, and as everything they understand starts to fall apart around them.
Putin suggested he’s open to peace vs. Ukraine. That would be wonderful. It would also be remarkable given everything we have seen to date and the rumours we hear of imminent escalation – unless the peace is on his terms, of course. Notably, the Ukrainian press says another hard winter looms, which the government is not prepared for, and so does a possible new Russian northern front towards Kyiv.
Trump considered declaring the Iran war over, again, days after he floated renaming Hormuz the Strait of America. We then got other stories pointing out that the White House thinks it’s better to pause this war until after the November midterms, then ramp things up again, as is our base case. The economic war vs. Iran obviously stays in place the while time.
South Korea might send its forces to Hormuz to support the US, becoming the first ally to do so, showing US pressure on Seoul, which had many analysts’ eyes rolling, might achieve a result that could help reduce oil prices. Israel claimed regime change in Tehran is its main goal, which is close to being achieved, and that Hamas and Iran are planning attacks on its citizens globally over next few weeks that it will respond to directly should they occur. That is not to include the substantial risk that these two wars become openly conflated into one larger one on at least two fronts, as open and tacit cooperation between Iran, Russia, North Korea, and China is slowly noticed by a wider circle of Western experts.
Even Argentina is rattling its sabre at the UK over the Falklands again, a claim the US may support if the British refuse to lead on NATO defence spending according to some – as the current UK is incapable of projecting a naval task force to the South Atlantic like it did back in 1982, speaking to a general western decline.
It’s not for nothing that oil, while off yesterday’s peak, is likely to close the week with its largest weekly gain since July, as crack spreads remain staggeringly high and stocks of refined products such as diesel are staggering low.
That is a structurally inflationary backdrop because refined products go into or into moving everything. It can only stop being structural if we know both wars are going to end; or that new refineries are going to be magically built years ahead of schedule; or that demand for everything is going to decline due to high prices, which is stagflationary. Neither of the first two are true, and the latter will have huge political consequences. From a geopolitical perspective, you can make peace on your opponent’s terms –but neither Ukraine with its drones nor Israel with its nukes will sign– to bring oil down; or you can arm up to bring them and it down. Central banks are secondary to that dynamic except where they act on ‘second round effects’ or help on the peace or ‘arm up’ fronts.
Markets can cheer another Fed speech from Waller that suggests that maybe rates don’t have to go up this month. It doesn’t change the above – politicians will or little will.
Markets can watch as JPY swings on heavy intervention again ahead of the BOJ almost certainly raising rates this month. It doesn’t change the above – politicians will or little will. On which note, the BOJ looks like it’s being leaned on by Bessent to hike, who also wants to ensure JPY rises to stabilise US markets. Also watch the reported 155 level in JPY, beyond which we could see accumulated shorts unwound, pushing the currency even further. Indeed, when things unwind it’s a “slowly at first then all at once” non-linear process – and not just in markets, even if they then have to try and price for them.
The Australian financial press just ran an op-ed calling for negative immigration, not lower net immigration, which would have been as unthinkable a few years ago as a collapsing housing market against which the RBA is likely to have to hike again. The same is happening in the US to some degree and various parties on the right in Europe are also talking about the same. Were it to occur, many political norms and economic assumptions built over the past few decades stop working.
As VW sheds 50,000 jobs and closes plants, the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy (WRR) argued the neo-mercantilist global backdrop leaves Europe vulnerable. It narrows EU options to: “international co-ordination”, i.e., a Plaza Accord for China; “strategic symmetry” to mirror China, requiring “the ECB to depart from its current policy of a freely floating exchange rate”; or “stronger trade defence measures”, i.e., tariffs, and maybe taxing capital inflows.
It notes:
“Clearly there is no easy pathway…This reflects the fundamental tension at the heart of this debate: the desire to maintain the international multilateral trade framework that has brought a great deal to Europe and to the world… At the same time, the issue of growing trade imbalances cannot be resolved within that framework, because it lacks the appropriate instruments.”
It concludes four things, three of which are:
- Industrial policy is important, but by itself not enough to tackle strategic dependencies. Formulate a strategy that addresses both trade imbalances and innovation.
- Doing nothing also comes at a high price. Therefore, to address trade imbalances, all options need to be on the table, even if they are painful.
- Europe is lagging behind when it comes to applying and scaling up technological innovations. Commit to a coherent European innovation system.
OpenAI claims it has overtaken Anthropic with its latest AI model, which is says could be considered to be “Artificial General Intelligence” or AGI. Is this marketing hype, or have we just had a true Manhattan Project moment that transforms everything? Who knows. But would you like to guess where equities, rates, FX, and commodities should sit if the US just developed a true AGI that can now improve itself at a non-linear rate? Now do it assuming we have two major, conflating, wars going on.
In the US, Democrats refused to support a constitutional amendment to keep the Supreme Court capped at nine justices, as the Democratic Socialist Alliance refused to back populist Democrat AOC as a 2028 presidential candidate because she is ‘too mainstream.’ The DOJ also asked the Supreme Court to rule on the White House’s new executive order on mail-in voting, which could have a major impact on both the midterms and all subsequent US elections.
The fourth WRR conclusion I held back to the end was this: “The world as we knew it no longer exists. Dare to think outside existing frameworks.”
END
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS/ENERGY COMMENTARIES
LNG
Asian LNG Prices Surge To Highest Since 2022 As Iran War Escalates
Thursday, Sep 03, 2026 – 08:05 PM
Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,
Spot LNG prices for Asian buyers went up to almost $26 per million British thermal units yesterday for a 5% weekly gain following the resumption of strikes between the United States and Iran.
Spot LNG for Asia traded at $25.908 per mmBtu late on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed traders, after President Donald Trump said “We took out all of the new equipment that they tried to build along the Strait of Hormuz – some defensive, some offensive … It was a very heavy attack last night, and we’re prepared to do another one any time we want.”
Prices in both Asia and Europe had jumped at the end of last week after Qatar’s state-owned firm QatarEnergy extended the force majeure on its LNG deliveries into November amid still-blocked transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
Prices in Asia were driven by South Asian buyers, including Pakistan and Bangladesh, seeking spot supply to replace term supply from Qatar that cannot leave the Persian Gulf. Per tender documents seen by Bloomberg, utilities in South Korea, India, Taiwan, and Bangladesh are looking to buy spot cargoes for October and November.
Pakistan, on the other hand, rejected an LNG offer to its last prompt tender earlier this week, as it was priced at over $27 per mmBtu, which the state-owned gas trading company considered too high a price. The cargo was offered by BP.
Recent developments in the Middle East suggest the resumption of normal LNG flows out of the Persian Gulf is nowhere in sight. In light of a seasonal pick-up in demand for gas, chances are that LNG prices will go higher still, likely pricing out some buyers. Gas prices are surging in Europe as well, making it more difficult for gas buyers there to start buying ahead of the winter season.
end
CHINA/RUSSIA/IRAN
Chinese refiners paying a record premium for Russia ESPO crude oil:
(Irina Slav/Oil Price.com)
Chinese Refiners Pay Record Premiums For Russian ESPO Crude
Thursday, Sep 03, 2026 – 09:45 PM
Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,
Chinese refiners are paying a hefty premium for Russia’s ESPO crude to replace Iranian crude that independent refiners were importing before the U.S. installed its naval blockade on the country.
East Siberia-Pacific Ocean crude, or ESPO, for delivery in November is trading at a premium of over $7 per barrel, with offers reaching as high as $10 per barrel over Brent crude, Bloomberg reported today, citing traders. The blend is loaded from Russia’s Far East coast and can reach the buyers in China in less than a week, the publication noted.
China is the biggest buyer of ESPO crude, with a market share of 83% for the first seven months of the year. However, this share is down from 88% a year earlier. The change came amid stronger ESPO buying from Indian refiners, whose market share for the Far Eastern Russian crude blend went up from 12% to 16% for the first seven months of the year, according to data from Kpler and Vortexa. Total oil exports from Russia’s Far Eastern port of Kozmino ticked up by 6% over the first seven months of the year.
India raised its ESPO imports due to the slump in overall Chinese oil imports between May and June, and the supply disruptions in the Middle East, which delayed many term cargoes Indian refiners were expecting in the early summer.
Normally, Indian refiners prefer the Urals blend but have now warmed up to ESPO even though it takes longer to reach its destinations in India and is costlier than Urals. However, the Far Eastern blend is a good backup option for Indian buyers in times of disruption, according to energy analysts.
Meanwhile, India’s crude oil imports from Russia are estimated to have eased in August from July’s record high, as Ukrainian attacks on Russian export infrastructure and competition from China for Russia’s barrels have dented Indian intake of Moscow’s oil.
END
RUSSIA
Russia’s Oil Revenue Sinks As Urals Falls To $59
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Submitted by Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com
Russia collected 326.2 billion rubles, or about $3.76 billion, in net oil revenue in August, down 22% from a year earlier and the lowest monthly total since February.
Russia’s tax authority calculated August oil revenues using a crude price of just over $59 per barrel. Urals, Russia’s main export grade, averaged almost $95 per barrel during the spring after the Iran war pushed buyers toward barrels outside the Persian Gulf.
Total Russian oil and gas revenue fell 16% year over year in August to 424 billion rubles. Oil and gas provide roughly one-fifth of federal budget revenue.
August oil receipts were more than 60% below July, which included a large scheduled payment from Russia’s profit-based tax on producers.
Moscow also paid refiners more than 197 billion rubles in August to maintain domestic fuel supplies. Refinery subsidies have reached almost 916 billion rubles since January.
Ukrainian drone strikes have repeatedly disrupted Russian refineries this year. Russia responded with restrictions on gasoline and diesel exports and increased fuel imports as domestic supplies tightened.
The refinery outages have also reduced Russia’s ability to absorb its own crude production. Every barrel that cannot enter a refinery must move into storage, find export capacity or remain underground.
Export capacity has developed problems of its own. Ukrainian attacks have disrupted terminals and shipping operations in the Black Sea and Baltic, reducing Russia’s ability to redirect crude displaced by refinery outages.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Thursday that Russia’s recent production decline should reverse as refineries restart.
Rystad Energy expects a deeper hit. The consultancy recently cut its 2026 Russian crude production forecast to 8.95 million barrels per day and expects output to decline to roughly 8.6 million bpd in 2027.
Russia benefited earlier this year from a sharp increase in global oil prices. August brought Urals back near $59, refinery subsidies above $2 billion for the month, fuel export restrictions and additional pressure on crude production.
END
STRAIT OF HORMUZ
Hormuz Disruptions Could Drag Into Next Year, Japanese Tanker Giant Warns
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 06:30 AM
Submitted by Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com,
Japan’s Mitsui OSK Lines, the world’s largest tanker operator, expects the shipping disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz to continue for longer than previously expected, with no normalization by the end of the year, due to this week’s re-escalation of hostilities.
“Given the current situation, it’s difficult to see operations resuming in any form by the end of the year,” Mitsui OSK Lines’ chief executive Jotaro Tamura told Bloomberg in an interview published on Thursday.
In a quarterly financial report last month, Mitsui OSK assumed that “navigation around the Strait of Hormuz will gradually resume from October 2026 and be normalized in January 2027.”
However, the recent flare-up of hostilities, with the first strikes the U.S. and Iran exchanged in more than a month, has led to deterioration of the situation.
“The situation continues to be well beyond the level of risk we can accept,” the executive told Bloomberg.
Mitsui OSK does not currently plan to return to shipping oil through the Strait of Hormuz, due to the elevated risks, the executive told Bloomberg. The situation needs to de-escalate, and the tanker giant needs to see guarantees and evidence of sustainably safe passage through the chokepoint to consider returning to the route, Tamura added.
Since the re-escalation early this week, traffic at the Strait of Hormuz has slumped to a handful of observable transits per day, although dark crossings have helped sneak more volumes out of the Persian Gulf in recent weeks.
The latest flare-up, however, could discourage some shippers again. As a result, the market grows concerned that the re-escalation is putting at risk the estimated tentative recovery of oil flows from the Middle East in the past weeks.
Resource-poor Japan, for its part, is preparing an energy import diversification plan that will include stipulations about support for pipelines in the Middle East aimed at diverting export oil flows away from the Strait of Hormuz.
END
DIESEL
US Diesel Pump Prices Hit Record As Global Refined-Products Crisis Threatens Industrial Economy
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 12:00 PM
Goldman explained this week that Gulf oil exports had recovered to between 15 million and 16 million barrels per day, roughly two-thirds of prewar levels, with the rise of dark tanker transits obscuring some flows from conventional tracking via the Automatic Identification System (AIS). Yet headline crude volumes don’t tell the entire story. As we have repeatedly noted, crude itself does not keep the industrial economy humming. Diesel does.
Make no mistake: There is a refined-products crisis because of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian one-way drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. That tightening in physical markets, especially for diesel, was evident on Thursday, when US retail pump prices reached a record high.
US retail diesel prices surged to a record $5.85 per gallon on Thursday, according to new data from AAA, surpassing the previous peak reached in June 2022.
Unlike crude oil, diesel is the fuel that keeps the industrial economy moving: It powers trucks, construction equipment, tractors, generators, and home-heating systems. The spike threatens to unleash another wave of energy-driven inflation just as global supplies tighten ahead of the Northern Hemisphere’s harvest and heating seasons.
Bloomberg’s NYMEX one-month heating-oil/crude spread, tracked on the Bloomberg Terminal as the HOCL1 Index, breached $100 per barrel early Tuesday before surging to $108 early Wednesday. It was trading at $99 early Friday morning.
President Trump urged US refiners earlier this week to increase production and lower gasoline and diesel prices, but the industry has limited spare capacity. Many facilities are already operating near, or even above, their stated maximum processing rates following a summer production surge.
Despite the recovery in tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz, TotalEnergies SE head Patrick Pouyanne recently said there wasn’t a “single tanker of products” moving out of the waterway.
Again, the energy crisis is in the refined-products complex.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA/.USA
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON…
The Elephant In The Canadian Room
Thursday, Sep 03, 2026 – 04:20 PM
Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,
At first glance, the current American-Canadian trade “war” is absurd. We are neighbors with a long history of close friendship, speak the same language (for the most part), and spring from the same British civilization.
Nearly one million Canadians reside in the United States.
Given the two countries’ natural affinities, Canadians are nearly indistinguishable from Americans.
Both sides have reasonable grievances over trade policy.
Americans don’t like Canada’s perennial trade surpluses of more than $50 billion in a supposedly free-trade zone.
They resent the fact that non-free-market China exports subsidized cheap steel and aluminum through Canada, giving Canadian auto and truck exports a price advantage.
The United States also objects to Canada imposing a surcharge on American digital media companies to subsidize Canadian Indigenous and French-language content.
Americans further resent Prime Minister Mark Carney’s backing out of an apparent deal at the eleventh hour. He apparently hoped to gin up Canadian nationalism on the eve of two key elections in Alberta and Quebec by attacking Trump, who is unpopular in Canada.
Ascendant separatist movements in both provinces threaten to unravel the Canadian nation.
Moreover, Carney expects the dispute to damage Trump on the eve of the U.S. midterm elections, which might reduce his leverage over Canada.
Canada, in turn, resents American demands concerning its importation of Chinese goods as an infringement upon its sovereignty.
It increasingly believes that the sheer size of the United States next door – 13 times larger in nominal GDP and nine times larger in population – threatens to overwhelm Canada’s unique culture.
Canada maintains that its trade surplus results largely from U.S. imports of Canadian oil sands petroleum – a mutually beneficial arrangement. It is also tired of Trump’s trolling and mockery.
But even these differences could easily be resolved, given our centuries of friendship.
So what is the unspoken source of the acrimony?
The United States is leaping ahead of other Western countries in ways few anticipated several decades ago, while Canada is stagnating.
America is the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas.
Its technology, software, biotechnology, digital media, satellite, and numerous other companies dominate global rankings.
American GDP is roughly $10 trillion larger than either China’s or the European Union’s. Yet China has four times the population of the United States, while the European Union has 100 million more people.
The U.S. military is the world’s most lethal and is now being rebuilt with even greater defense spending.
Moreover, the United States has not been shy about warning its Western friends that their socialist paradigms and leftist policies threaten their very existence.
The EU suffers from unsustainably low fertility.
Massive and often illegal immigration threatens the very culture and values of Europe.
Green hysteria has nearly wrecked the German and British economies.
Until Russia invaded Ukraine and Trump began his harangues, European NATO members were de facto disarming.
Yet Canada – especially under the globalist prime ministers Justin Trudeau and Mark Carney – has adopted much of this ossified European model.
The result is a sluggish economy. Also left unspoken is Canada’s growing reliance on the U.S. market, American continental defenses, and the general goodwill of the United States.
Until last year, Canada had refused to honor its NATO commitment to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense.
It has thrown open its border even as the United States is closing its own.
Some 45 percent of Canadian residents are either foreign-born or the children of immigrants.
The majority come from impoverished, non-Western countries and immediately depend upon a vast social welfare system that the present anemic economy cannot sustain.
Utopian think tanks speak grandly of a Canadian “Century Initiative” that would bring in enough immigrants to increase the population to 100 million. But sheer numbers will hardly remedy the country’s underlying demographic and economic stagnation.
How mostly non-Western immigrants are to be integrated, assimilated, and acculturated in a country that has forsaken anything remotely resembling the idea of a melting pot is never explained.
The tragic irony is that Canada once punched well above its demographic weight, with a formidable military and a dynamic economy.
Not anymore. Its per capita GDP is now among the lowest in the industrialized West.
Yet Canada has the fifth-largest oil and natural-gas reserves in the world, even as green restrictions and provincial infighting nullify those natural advantages.
In timber, metals, and mineral resources, Canada ranks among the world’s top five nations.
Apparently, Canada believes that opening its economy, insisting upon legal, meritocratic, diverse, and measured immigration, and fully developing its natural wealth would be a bitter medicine worse than even its present maladies.
For all America’s unsolicited advice and tough-love attitude, the United States would prefer a strong Canadian partner to a dependent one.
That growing asymmetry explains much of this otherwise inexplicable melodrama.
END
AUSTRALIA/USA
Australia has awoken!!
Australia, US To Speed Up Defense Cooperation, Permanent US Submarine Force On Track
Thursday, Sep 03, 2026 – 11:25 PM
Authored by Monica O’Shea via The Epoch Times,
Australian leaders have pledged to speed up defence cooperation during high level talks.
Australia’s Defence Minister Richard Marles met U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon and Vice President JD Vance on Sept. 2.
A Pentagon readout of the Hegseth meeting said “both leaders agreed to accelerate force posture initiatives at Australian bases, bolster cooperation in combined logistics, and build greater interoperability through joint exercises. “They also discussed progress on defense industrial cooperation to enable shared capacity for guided weapons and next-generation capabilities.”
Hegseth and Marles also discussed strengthening deterrence in the Pacific and progress on AUKUS.
“The Secretary and Deputy Prime Minister also spotlighted advancements in the AUKUS partnership and welcomed the recent arrival of U.S. Navy sailors in Western Australia to support the commencement of Submarine Rotational Force3West activities in 2027,” the Pentagon readout said.
AUKUS is a trilateral security pact signed by Australia, the United States, and UK in 2021. Pillar One of the deal aims to arm Australia with nuclear-powered submarines, at a total cost of up to A$368 billion.
Meanwhile, Hegseth stressed the need for allies to pull their own weight on defence, while also commemorating the 75th anniversary of the ANZUS Treaty.
Marles described the conversations as “highly productive,” in comments to reporters. It was his first United States trip since he announced Australia’s latest National Defence Strategy in April.
US, UK Submarine Force On Track For Permanent Presence
Australia’s Marles also said U.S personnel were already stationed at HMAS Stirling in Western Australia and preparing the base for the Submarine Rotational Force-West – a permanent U.S. and UK submarine presence.
Marles said the rotation remains “on time and on track” for the end of next year.
In response to questions about whether the U.S. would still hand over submarines given its construction constraints, Marles pointed to the joint benefits of AUKUS.
“What AUKUS is doing is providing more sea days for the Virginia-class fleet for the United States Navy, and more sea days’ worth than a single submarine,” he said.
Calls For Strait Of Hormuz To Be Open
Marles also said he spoke with Vance and Hegseth about the Iran War, but did not “go into details” on the discussion.
“What Iran has done in terms of seeking to restrict the movement of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is completely inconsistent with the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea. It’s completely unacceptable,” he said.
Australia would also support the U.S. goal of curtailing Iran’s ability to acquire nuclear weapons.
“We’ve also said from the get-go that reducing Iran’s nuclear ambitions is an important measure to be taken as well, and that’s been at the heart of our posture and respect of the conflict in Iran from the beginning …” Marles said.
The war between the United States and Iran started on Feb. 28 after surprise strikes on military installations and leadership.
For months, the Iranian regime has held out, while disrupting global trade by blockading the Strait of Hormuz.
On Sept. 2, U.S. President Trump claimed the vital waterway was under U.S. control and aired the idea of changing the name to the “Trump Strait.”
On critical minerals, Marles said the meetings with Vance and Hegseth also covered the U.S.-Australian critical minerals agreement signed almost a year ago.
That deal has already unlocked $4 billion in investment for secure supply chains, Marles said.
END
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1620 DOWN 0.0008
USA/ YEN 156.37 UP 0.733 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!! BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE. URGES PENSION AND INSUANCE FUNDS TO BUY JAPANESE BONDS
GBP/USA 1.3537 UP 0.0009 OR 9 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3802 UP 0.0012 //CDN DOLLAR DOWN 12 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 11.97 PTS OR 0.30%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 447.69 PTS OR 1.78%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.43%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 97.90 PTS OR 0.39%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.97 PTS OR 0.30%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .43%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 819.52 PTS OR 1.28%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4480.00
silver:$67.06
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 48.44 UP 12 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 86.79 ROUBLE// DOWN 0 ROUBLE AND 15 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.1733 UP 3 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.8143 UP 3 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.797 UP 0 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.422 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early FRIDAY MORNING: 99.03 UP 15 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.657% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2,894% DOWN 7 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.954 DOWN 11 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.7760 DOWN 1 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 4.141 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.3256 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1613 DOWN 0.0015 OR 15 basis points
USA/Japan: 155.73 UP 0.102 OR YEN IS DOWN 10 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.1266 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.7641 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS.
CANADIAN DOLLAR DOWN 60 BASIS PTS TO 1.3849
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY 6.7109 ON SHORE ..UP
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.7070
TURKISH LIRA: 48.44 UP 12 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.770% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.238 DOWN 1 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.379 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM $4414.00
SILVER AT 10;00: $65.67
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest ratesFRIDAY
DAY CLOSING TIME 10:00 AM///
London: CLOSED UP 0.85 PTS OR 0.01%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 47.11 PTS OR 0.18%
FRANCE: DOWN 2.80 OR 0.03 PTS
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 44.70 PTS OR 0.22%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 130.55 PTS OR 0.25%
WTI Oil price 90.19 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 94.07 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 86.33 /// ROUBLE UP 0 AND 32/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.757 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.387 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM//
Euro vs USA 1.1614 DOWN 0.0014 OR 14 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3518 DOWN 0.0009 OR 9 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 5.1345 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.7890 DOWN 2 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.9111 DOWN 3 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.976 DOWN 9 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 156.22 UP 0.585 OR YEN DOWN 59 BASIS PTS//GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM 160.00/ EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3832 UP 0.0042 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 42 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 91.48
Brent OIL: 96.24
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS pts to 4.780
USA 30 yr bond yield: DOWN 0 PTS to 5.244%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.377 UP 4 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.777 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.411 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.12 UP 24 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 48.44 UP 13 BASIS PTS GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 86.20 UP 0 AND 44/100 roubles //
GOLD $4,435.75 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 66.24 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 288.09 POINTS OR 0.54%
NASDAQ 100 UP 61.83 PTS OR 0.21%
VOLATILITY INDEX 14.37 UP 0.05 PTS OR 0.35%
GLD: $ 406.77 DOWN 3.45 PTS OR 0.84%
SLV/ 59.82PTS DOWN 0.73 OR 1.21%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 119.32 PTS OR 3.32%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
‘Payrolls Kill Waller’s “Fed Pause” Party As Oil, Yields, & AI Earnings Whipsaw Markets This Week
JOBS REPORT
‘Good News Is Bad News’: Big Jobs Beats Sends Rate-HIKE Odds Soaring; Here’s What Wall Street Thinks…
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 08:56 AM
A four standard deviation beat for non-farm payrolls this morning (good news) is triggering ugly reactions (bad news) across markets with rate-hike odds for September ripping back up near recent highs (despite no signs of inflationary wage growth – in fact it is slowing)…
Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief FX strategist:
“The strength in the latest NFP report will validate Sept. Fed rate-rise talks and most likely give the dollar a short-term-yield-driven lift.”
“But that’s priced, and unless the Fed signals the beginning of an aggressive tightening cycle, the Fed-driven dollar upside may be contained into 4Q.”
That in turn is hammering the short-end of the yield curve…
As Academy Securities’ Peter Tchir notes: The President seems highly likely to complain later today that the bond market is stupid – because he already argued this week (or last week, or both) that good data should be good for bond yields. It is good for credit spreads but is not going to help on bond yields.
And weighing on stocks…
Based on JPMorgan’s matrix, we should see a drop in the S&P of between 0.5% and 1.25%…
Significantly more than the options market implied (+/-0.52%)…
The dollar jumped…
Which in turn dragged gold down…
Christopher Hodge at Natixis reckons the doves will have to prove their case when the Fed meets later this month.
“Most policymakers seemed sanguine about the labor market so inflation will clearly still be the primary driver of near term policy. A softer print today could have given some wiggle room on what was considered to the an acceptable core CPI print, but clearly we didn’t get that. Instead, the onus will continue to be on the doves to get a disinflationary print that justifies another hold – we are putting that bogey at about 20bps. Absent that, the Fed will likely hike in September.”
Jeffrey Rosenberg, a portfolio manager at BlackRock Inc., says on Bloomberg TV that the biggest issue here for the Fed isn’t the job market but the extent of “pass through” of energy prices to broader inflation.
He still sees the Fed’s Sept. 16 decision as entirely dependent on the CPI report. If that shows continuing progress in inflation coming down, then he sees the Fed holding.
Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets reflects what’s emerging as the consensus view on this report:
Today’s data lends support to the hawkish camp, but stops shy of making a definitive case for a rate hike on September 16.
Olu Sonola, Head of US Economics at Fitch Ratings comes out swinging:
“This is an unequivocally strong report, which gives the Fed ample room to maintain that the labor market is stable and the economy remains at full employment. The Fed may want markets to “play the ball, not the referee.”
But a hot CPI print next week could be the whistle that pushes the Fed to move the policy rate higher.”
All of which makes us wonder if the knee-jerk response is an over-reaction since we note what Fed Chairman Warsh said last week: “I believe the labor markets are consistent with full employment,” he said, which is why policymakers have largely priced in healthy employment.
The bigger focus remains inflation.
Today’s numbers are still second fiddle to what we get next week – both producer and consumer prices, which will be used to compute the PCE numbers. While today’s strong jobs reading surely supports the case for a hike, wage gains don’t suggest any inflation pressures so it’s not like the labor market is a smoking gun for a hike.
‘Give disinflation a chance’, was the message from Waller yesterday (who basically corroborated Williams). The center of the committee has not shifted – it is still data-dependent.
He might hold in September unless inflation comes in hot, and he made clear that NFP matters less than CPI next week.
Event risk has effectively migrated from payrolls to CPI.
Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management doesn’t see these numbers having a major impact on the Fed debate:
“For the Fed, there is little here to challenge the view that inflation remains the primary concern. Markets may edge up their expectations for a September hike following today’s release, but next week’s CPI report is still likely to be the key swing factor for policy.”
Academy Securities’ Peter Tchir summarizes The Fed’s position as follows:
Those looking to hike rates will have a stronger argument to hike (or at least one argument against hiking that they no longer need to contend with).
Those looking to hold steady, will be able to argue that the volatility in payrolls means we shouldn’t overreact (garbage in, garbage out).
- I do like the argument that looking at “annual” numbers can be misleading on the inflation side. If you take the last 12 months, we have 3.3%. If you take the last quarter and annualize it, we drop to 3% and if you take the last two months and annualize it, we are at 2.4% (maybe some of the lags and the garbage in/garbage out, are finally coming out of the data). Truflation “core” is down to 1.3%.
- With plenty of “chatter” that the President is looking at exits for Iran we shouldn’t be hiking because of higher energy costs (it is difficult to see how hiking solves that problem at all).
- (good for lower oil prices) and the reality the U.S. attacked Iran, but it was limited in scope to hitting launchers, that were set to send more mines into the Strait. That is consistent with the U.S. attempts to keep the Strait clear (which is something CENTCOM has stated).
Those looking to hold/cut, well, I’d like to have some of whatever they are having, because it has to be some pretty good “stuff” 😊
Seriously, cannot imagine anyone in the cut camp for this meeting, given even an optimistic take on inflation.
The front end will continue to march to the beat of the data and the tone of the Fed. I think you buy 2’s whenever WIRP get to close to 2 hikes for end of January meeting, and for now, reduce risk, whenever WIRP for October gets to under 0.5% (good trading ranges for now, until we get more clarity).
I remain in the no HIKE camp for the year (and likely CUTS before HIKES), but the data remains volatile.
The news media will run with the “JOB JOBS JOBS” story, but the real news is next week’s inflation print, and a melt-up setup that still has to survive Hormuz (heating oil, diesel record highs).
To summarize, the jobs market appears strong but next week’s data will determine what the Fed does.
WRAP UP:
USA DATA RELEASES
A PHONY REPORT
Labor Shock: US Adds 162K Jobs In August, 4-Sigma Beat And Above Highest Forecast
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 08:47 AM
In our jobs report preview we quoted JPM’s Market Intel desk which said that today’s August payrolls number will be a case of “good news is bad news”, and sure enough futures are sliding and yields surging after moments ago the BLS reported that in August, the US added a whopping 162K jobs, up from an upward revised 21K (July is no longer negative -23K), and the second highest monthly increase of 2026 (only March was higher)…
… and printed not only above the median estimate of 50K but above the highest Wall Street estimate of 125K (from Pantheon). In fact, this was a a 4-sigma beat to expectations.
Understandably, today’s blowout print was the biggest beat of estimates going back to March.
For once, revisions were quite favorable, with June numbers revised up by 11,000, from +20,000 to +31,000, and July revised up by 44,000, from -23,000 to +21,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 55,000 higher than previously reported.
The unemployment rate remained flat at 4.1%, and in line with expectations. Among major groups, the unemployment rate for people who are Asian declined to 3.2%, The rate for teenagers edged up to 14.1% over the month, mostly offsetting a decline in the prior month. The jobless rates for adult men (4.0 percent), adult women (3.5 percent), and people who are White (3.7 percent), Black (6.0 percent), or Hispanic (4.8 percent) showed little change in August.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% MoM, in line with expectations, and 3.1% YoY. In August, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 11 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $32.53. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours in August. In manufacturing, the average workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.5 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 3.1 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained at 33.8 hours.
Some more details from the report:
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little at 1.9 million in August. The long-term unemployed accounted for 27.0 percent of all unemployed people.
The labor force participation rate edged up to 61.6 percent in August but is down by 0.5 percentage point since January. The employment-population ratio, at 59.1 percent, changed little over the month and since January.
The number of people employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 414,000 to 4.4 million in August. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.
In August, the number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little at 5.7 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.7 million in August. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, changed little in August at 441,000.
Taking a closer look at the composition of jobs per the Establishment survey we find the following:
- Employment in food services and drinking places increased by 59,000 in August, well above the average monthly gain of 12,000 over the prior 12 months.
- Local government education added 42,000 jobs in August, largely offsetting a decrease in the prior month. Local government education has shown little net change since January 2025.
- In August, employment in manufacturing continued its upward trend (+16,000) and is up by 58,000 since a recent low in December 2025. Employment in machinery manufacturing (+6,000) and in fabricated metal product manufacturing (+6,000) continued trending up in August.
- Employment in health care continued to trend up in August (+13,000) but at a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+32,000). Over the month, home health care services (+11,000) and hospitals (+8,000) added jobs.
- Information employment declined by 23,000 in August, following losses that had averaged 8,000 per month over the prior 12 months. In August, job losses occurred in computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting, and related services (-8,000), in publishing industries (-7,000), and in broadcasting and content providers (-5,000).
- Construction employment changed little in August (+22,000). Employment in nonresidential specialty trade contractors continued to trend up (+8,000), similar to the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+6,000).
Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; financial activities; professional and business services; social assistance; and other services.
The unexpectedly strong print has understandably sent Sept rate hike odds spiking and has hammered risk assets, although the real decider whether we get a rate move this month will be next week’s CPI print. As a reminder, according to JPM, a print above 95K will lead to a 0.5% to -1.25% down day for the S&P.
Developing
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
Lululemon Crashes After Another Brutal Guidance Cut; Jefferies Flags “Triple Whammy” Quarter
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 07:20 AM
Lululemon Athletica shares crashed in premarket trading in New York after the athletic-apparel retailer slashed its full-year outlook again, suggesting that demand in the Americas is deteriorating as Alo and other rivals gain market share. The move also puts mounting pressure on its incoming chief executive to revive the struggling brand.
Lululemon expects full-year revenue of between $10.35 billion and $10.50 billion, down sharply from its previous forecast of $11 billion to $11.15 billion and well below the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of $11.03 billion.
Full-year earnings are forecast at $9.48 to $9.73 per share, compared with the previous range of $10.95 to $11.15 and below the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of $10.84.
“We know there is significant work ahead for us,” Lululemon’s interim co-CEO, Meghan Frank, said during the company’s call with analysts. “We’re applying what we’re learning this year to how we operate globally going forward.”
The third-quarter forecast was even grimmer. Lululemon expects revenue of $2.29 billion to $2.32 billion, well below the $2.53 billion estimate. Earnings are projected at just 93 cents to 98 cents per share, versus the $2.41 analysts had expected.
The dismal forecasts overshadowed stronger-than-expected second-quarter profitability. Adjusted earnings of $2.92 per share exceeded the $1.80 estimate, while gross margin and operating margin also surpassed Bloomberg Consensus estimates. Revenue of $2.42 billion, however, missed expectations.
Shares crashed in premarket trading, falling about 19.3%. As of Thursday, shares were down 41.4% year to date.
Lorraine Hutchinson, a managing director and senior retail analyst at BofA Securities, wrote in a note on Friday morning that the athletic-apparel retailer’s guidance downgrade failed to convince her team that the stock had found a bottom, given that North American sales continue to weaken and an unexpected reversal in China is pushing any potential recovery further into the future.
Here’s what Hutchinson told clients:
Guidance reset again; no line of sight to inflection
LULU’s 2Q miss in China and lack of progress in North America push the recovery timeline further out. Management laid out a detailed product and marketing plan to try to stabilize the business, but is not embedding any resultant improvement into the outlook. However, incoming CEO Heidi O’Neill joins next week, so we may hear a change in strategy on next quarter’s earnings call. We think the depressed multiple balances the reset with the challenges ahead and retain our Neutral rating. LULU reduced its guidance by 15% to $9.48-9.73 (incl 86c of tariff refunds). We are cutting our F26/F27E EPS by 13%/31% and our PO to $122 from $140, still based on 12x P/E, now on F28 as we roll our valuation year forward.
China: from growth engine to the source of the miss
China Mainland grew 4% (-2% ccy) and comps declined 8%, well below mid-to-high-teens sales guidance. The shortfall was due to weak traffic driven by pressure following social media commentary after the Great Wall marketing event. E-com was further hurt by a softer 618 event on Tmall. China sales were pressured in May, improved in June, then pressure resumed in July. To rebuild brand heat, management is focusing on brand-led marketing and activations in Tier-1 cities to try to shift the narrative. We model continued comp declines for the remainder of the year and into 1H27.
US comps: leggings decline/away-from-body green shoots
North America revenue fell 8% with comps down 12%. Leggings sales declined 20% in Q2 and women’s bottoms were down MSD. Customers are shifting to away-from-body silhouettes and LULU is chasing 20% more volume than last year. Accessories also fell 13%, with strength in backpacks offset by softness in bags.
Margins get worse before they get better
Guidance implies that US trends worsen in 3Q, as 2Q sales benefited from more markdowns and categories like leggings continue to underperform. With a new CEO starting next week, it’s difficult to have visibility on strategy, but we were surprised to hear that store openings and marketing will continue as planned. This is causing 1050bp of margin decline in 3Q. 4Q margin guidance calls for only ~240bp of pressure as LULU laps the bulk of its tariff pressure and continues to work on controlling SG&A. LULU also has $105mn ($0.65) of tariff refunds outstanding that it has not included in guidance.
Here’s what other desks on Wall Street are saying, courtesy of Bloomberg:
Guggenheim (Neutral)
- Analyst Simeon Siegel says he fears that the reduced top-line guidance does not incorporate a deep enough cut looking further out.
- The trim in the forecast “is another along a stretch of a ‘thousand cuts,’ rather than a ‘kitchen sink’ approach.”
Jefferies (Hold, PT cut to $105 from $115)
- Analyst Randal Konik says Lululemon’s 2Q was “a triple whammy”: US revenue was down, the women’s business was down, with leggings falling 20%, and China was also lower.
- “Guidance cuts for both 3Q and the year confirm the fixed cost base is too big for a shrinking top line.”
CFRA (Buy, PT $169)
- Analyst Zachary Warring says the Americas comparable-sales decline of 12% marks a meaningful acceleration from the 5% decline reported in the year-ago period, indicating “deepening market share losses in the company’s largest and most profitable region.”
- “Heidi O’Neill joins as CEO on September 8, 2026, and the company’s ability to stabilize the Americas business and restore full-price selling discipline will be the central focus for investors in the quarters ahead.”
Bloomberg Intelligence
- “Lululemon’s challenges are far from over after weaker 2Q results prompted another cut to its 2026 outlook, with pressure set to intensify in 2H,” writes Poonam Goyal.
- Goyal says the new CEO will need to restore product innovation and brand momentum, which should take several months to show tangible progress.
Jay Sole, managing director and senior retail analyst at UBS, told clients earlier today that he continues to see “a balanced upside/downside skew, even at a lower price.”
END
“Apathy, Caution, And Chagrin”: UBS Sours On Consumer Stocks
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 01:05 PM
The Street’s mood toward US retail has been described by UBS analysts as “apathy, caution, and chagrin.”
“Investors are engaged, but not necessarily enthusiastic. They remain interested, but increasingly selective. Most importantly, conviction feels harder earned than it has in years,” Michael Lasser, a managing director and senior equity-research analyst at UBS, wrote in a note on Thursday.
Goldman Sachs consumer expert Scott Feiler wrote yesterday that “consumer stocks have had a tough run the last few weeks“ and pointed to Goldman’s prime brokerage data, which show that gross exposure to retail stocks has plunged to a multi-year low, signaling that hedge funds have reduced their exposure this year.
Returning to Lasser, the UBS analyst warned that consumers are facing affordability pressures, elevated interest rates, inflation, labor-market uncertainty, tariffs, freight costs, and geopolitical instability, all of which have pushed investors to view retail through a defensive lens.
The broad consensus is that the US consumer remains resilient, but that conclusion masks deepening income-based bifurcation. Accelerating sales at Dollar General and Dollar Tree, alongside moderating trends at Walmart and Costco, have renewed questions about whether consumers are beginning to trade down.
Credit-card delinquencies, equity-market wealth effects, and fuel prices are emerging as critical indicators for spending through 2027.
Lasser explained:
At times, investing in retail today feels like crossing a river against a steady current. Every step forward is informed by the latest demand signals, market share reads, or channel checks. Daily stock movements frequently reflect changing narratives around risk rather than changes in underlying fundamentals. In some cases, share price action appears to be influencing investment theses as much as investment theses are influencing share price action.
Against that backdrop, confidence has become relative. Selectivity remains exceptionally high. The market is rewarding execution over aspiration, consistency over storytelling, and evidence over possibility. That dynamic is unlikely to change in the near term unless the macroeconomic undertow begins to recede.
Lasser added a lot more color about the current state of the consumer:
The State of the Consumer
The broad consensus remains that the consumer is holding up reasonably well. Yet that conclusion masks an increasingly nuanced debate. Income-based bifurcation has become so widely accepted that it is almost cliché. The more relevant question today is whether this remains an investable theme and how durable it may prove to be.
The recent acceleration at the dollar stores alongside moderation at Walmart and Costco has prompted renewed questions about shifting consumer behavior. Investors continue to monitor credit card delinquencies, wealth effects tied to equity markets, and fuel prices as key variables that could shape spending patterns over the next several quarters.
Sentiment Swings and Market Positioning
Perhaps the most striking characteristic of the current environment is the magnitude of sentiment volatility relative to changes in business fundamentals.
Recent examples include Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Target, and Ulta, where investor opinion periodically swung far beyond what underlying operating results appeared to justify. When evidence emerges that challenges the prevailing narrative, consensus often snaps back just as aggressively in the opposite direction. This creates fertile ground for mispricing opportunities and outsized returns for investors willing to be patient.
More recently, many of these discussions have centered on names such as Dick’s Sporting Goods, AutoZone, and Tractor Supply.
Interest Rates and Replacement Cycles
Interest rates continue to serve as one of the sector’s most important variables. Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Floor & Decor have largely traded as housing and bond-proxy vehicles, while Best Buy, Williams-Sonoma, and Wayfair have increasingly been viewed as beneficiaries of an eventual replacement cycle.
The key debate is whether a declining rate environment would lift all of these businesses equally. Investors increasingly question whether lower rates alone are sufficient or whether company-specific execution and category fundamentals will ultimately prove more important.
Tariff Refunds and the Coming Anniversary Effect
Another emerging area of focus is the growing divide between tariff refund beneficiaries and those largely excluded from those benefits.
Retailers such as Walmart, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Home Depot, Tractor Supply, and Best Buy are generally viewed as beneficiaries. Meanwhile, Target, Williams-Sonoma, and Five Below are more commonly viewed as those on the other side of that group.
This distinction may become increasingly important as investors begin to focus on the anniversary of these benefits and their second- and third-order implications for margins, pricing strategies, and earnings growth moving into next year.
The Nuanced Debates
Beyond the headline themes, countless smaller discussions continue to shape investor thinking. Topics ranging from nominal pricing and demographic trends to category-specific dynamics are influencing views on which retailers can sustainably grow above GDP and which may struggle to keep pace heading into 2027.
He touched on individual names:
Walmart
Walmart appears to be undergoing a gradual regeneration of its shareholder base. Investors have become more comfortable with underlying comp trends excluding Health & Wellness, although there is some concern that H&W-related headwinds could become more pronounced in 2027.
Discussions around store-level economics, margin expansion opportunities, and the long-term earnings power of the business remain central to the debate. The prevailing view is that the stock may remain range-bound near term as investors wait for proof that the most compelling elements of the investment thesis can translate into tangible financial outcomes.
Costco
Conversation around Costco has been comparatively subdued. The August sales release reignited debate over whether recent performance reflects continued deceleration or the early stages of stabilization.
Bulls remain focused on traffic growth, membership engagement, and the enduring strength of Costco’s flywheel. Skeptics question whether the stock can continue to command its premium valuation if the business settles into a slightly lower long-term comp framework.
Target
Investor sentiment toward Target has swung dramatically over the past year. A few quarters of mid-single-digit comparable sales growth have meaningfully altered the narrative. The discussion has shifted from questioning the relevance of the business to debating its long-term earnings potential.
Key debates center around 2027 comp expectations, tougher margin comparisons, and valuation. Consensus expectations that once centered around approximately $10 of earnings power have increasingly migrated toward the possibility of nearly $12 in 2027. Where investors fall along that spectrum largely determines whether they view the stock as attractive or fully valued.
BJ’s Wholesale Club
Investors have been more open to this stock as of late. There’s been some surprise on the degree to which its shares have pulled back after a reasonably solid print. While the stock remains heavily influenced by the data, bulls have expressed optimism about it seeing improving trends from both its higher income and lower income shoppers. Bears remain skeptical about the sustainability of its recent performance, and are concerned that tough gas compares and more normalized MFI increases could pressure earnings growth in CY’27.
Dollar General
Investors broadly appreciate the improvement in operational execution and the progress management has made over the past year.
Operationally, the largest debate centers on the health of the mature store base. Core mature-store comps hovering around flat levels have become a focal point. Some investors worry that persistently muted comp growth could create longer-term margin pressure given the operating leverage embedded within the model.
There are also questions surrounding the sustainability of the recent gross margin expansion cycle. With much of the benefit from shrink reduction and damage improvements potentially already realized, and LIFO tailwinds likely moderating, investors are increasingly debating how much incremental margin upside remains available.
The contribution opportunity from DG Media continues to generate constructive discussion as well. Meanwhile, the bullish camp argues that the company has successfully re-established itself as a double-digit algorithm business capable of delivering attractive earnings growth over time.
Dollar Tree
Sentiment toward Dollar Tree continues to improve as investors focus on simplification, operational execution, and self-help opportunities.
The traffic inflection has strengthened the bullish narrative and quieted many of the skeptics. While investors still seek additional proof points, there is growing recognition that the direction of travel has improved meaningfully.
The primary debates now center on tariff refund anniversaries and the potential impact of elevated freight costs as the company moves into 2027. Some say that, as a result of these factors, margins remain uncertain moving forward.
Goldman consumer stocks versus AAA retail gasoline
The takeaway here is that US consumer has imploded. It is that resilient headline data are concealing widening fractures beneath the surface. Accelerating sales at dollar stores, alongside moderating trends at Walmart and Costco, suggest that spending is shifting toward discount retailers.
Hedge funds appear to have recognized the shift, as the Goldman data suggests gross exposure to retail stocks is at a multi-year low.
END
Deutsche Bank: August US Auto Sales Beat Forecasts, But Incentives Remain A Factor
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 02:40 PM
U.S. auto sales came in stronger than expected in August, offering another sign that consumer demand for new vehicles remains relatively resilient despite elevated borrowing costs and broader questions about the economy.
According to Deutsche Bank’s auto team, led by Edison Yu, August sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of roughly 16.9 million vehicles. That was comfortably ahead of the bank’s 16.4 million estimate and also above the roughly 16.4 million pace recorded a year earlier.
The headline SAAR number was strong, although the underlying monthly figures were somewhat less impressive. Automakers sold approximately 1.388 million vehicles during August, slightly above July’s 1.380 million but below the roughly 1.482 million vehicles sold in August 2025.
Sales among both the Detroit Three and major Japanese automakers were modestly better than Deutsche Bank expected. But Hyundai Group was one of the biggest contributors to the upside surprise, beating the bank’s forecast by approximately 14,000 vehicles. Other brands accounted for the remainder of the beat.
The closely watched large pickup market was more mixed. Daily sales declined for most major truck models, but Ram was a notable exception. Ram sales increased by roughly 105 vehicles per day to around 1,550, with Deutsche Bank attributing much of that strength to aggressive incentive spending.
Higher sales are obviously positive for volumes, but when they are being generated through heavier discounts and incentives, the improvement doesn’t necessarily translate into equally strong profitability for manufacturers.
Inventory remains relatively controlled. Industry-wide inventories slipped to approximately 49 days of supply, compared with 50 days previously, although that remains above the 47-day level seen in 2025. Truck inventories declined by one day to 52 days of supply, while passenger-car inventories dropped by two days to just 34.
Taken together, the August numbers paint a reasonably healthy picture of the U.S. auto market. Sales are running better than expected, inventories aren’t showing signs of a major glut, and the annualized selling rate remains comfortably above 16 million vehicles.
Deutsche Bank isn’t extrapolating August’s 16.9 million pace into a dramatically stronger industry forecast, however. Yu and his team continue to expect a 16.0 million SAAR for full-year 2026, roughly consistent with forecasts from the major automakers themselves. For 2027, Deutsche Bank is forecasting only a modest improvement to 16.1 million.
In other words, August was a good month, but Deutsche Bank isn’t calling it the beginning of an auto boom. The more interesting question from here may be how much manufacturers have to spend on incentives to keep sales around these levels…particularly if consumers remain squeezed by high vehicle prices and financing costs.
KING NEWS
| The King Report September 4, 2026 Issue 7820 | Independent View of the News |
| Trump weighs declaring Iran war over as US military digs in for long haul WSJ reports Trump favors ending the war and relying on economic pressure, even as Pentagon extends deployments and keeps 50,000 troops in the region https://www.ynetnews.com/article/b1srso8dzl August ISM Services 55.4, 54.1 exp and prior; New Orders 60.9, 56 exp; Employment 478, 48.3 exp; Prices Paid 72.6, 70 exp. Service inflation is a problem. The ISM: Miller continues, “The Prices Index registered 72.6 percent, broke the 70-percent threshold for the fifth time in six months and hit its highest level since August 2022 (72.6 percent). After six commodities were reported as down in price in July, that total dropped to a single commodity: fuel, which was also reported as up in price for a seventh month in a row. Petroleum-related products, diesel, and gasoline were again reported as up in price in August. Graphics processing units (GPUs) and steel were added as commodities in short supply. The Supplier Deliveries Index continued to indicate slower performance; however, the reading of 51.3 percent is the fourth straight decrease and is 2.4 percentage points below the 12-month average of 53.7 percent… (ISM boosted by strong back-to-school sales) https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-55-4-august-2026-ism-services-pmi-report-302868046.html @zerohedge: The ISM Prices divergence just won’t stop: highest since 2022. Employment has been flat/in contraction for 4 years now. https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2095514417760776412 @DianeSwonk: Was on a meeting with about 50 economists across industries & countries this week. The meetings are strictly Chatham House Rules, which means there is not attribution but the picture on inflation that emerged was striking, hot, and reflects what we have seen in ISM surveys for both the service sector & manufacturing. The most important message in ISM price indexes is that they both signal a resurgence of pipeline inflation pressures rather than further disinflation. Manufacturing reflects the direct effects of tariffs, imported inputs, and supply chain disruptions. Services reflects the broader pass-through of those costs, augmented by labor shortages and wage pressures… The combination keeps the Fed worried that inflation could prove more persistent than headline data alone would suggest. What was perhaps most striking at the meeting in this context was the debate about what it would take for the Fed to derail an inflation that many industry specialists are seeing as entrenched…There is a fear it is getting into firm and consumer expectations even as the consumer splinters on its reaction to price hikes… Benefits are poised to accelerate at a wicked hot pace again next year, which further buoys service sector inflation along with inequality. The longer inflation lingers, the higher the risk that it takes on a life of its own and is harder to tame. @DeItaone: FED’S WALLER LEANS TOWARD SEPTEMBER HOLD Fed Governor Christopher Waller is inclined to keep rates unchanged at the September 15-16 meeting if August inflation confirms recent disinflation progress. However, a hotter inflation report could prompt him to support a rate hike, saying even a modest acceleration may justify tighter policy. Waller said economic growth remains solid and the labor market healthy, while underlying inflation is improving faster than headline core measures suggest. He still sees upside inflation risks amid geopolitical, trade and AI uncertainty. @Acyn: VP Vance: We believe that the Fed should be lowering interest rates. We feel quite confident that if you look at the inflation numbers it’s proper and responsible for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. https://x.com/Acyn/status/2095578859429388500 Yesterday, the US Treasury bought $12.5B of US debt, coupons maturing in 2026-2028. This produced a rally for bonds and stocks. USUs hit a daily high of 109 16/32, +23/32, at 8:45 ET and then fell to 109 6/32 at 10:45 ET on the inflationary August ISM report. The S&P 500 Index gapped higher on the opening and ran to 7756.76 at 14:17 ET. The index then rolled gently for almost 2 hours, and closed at 7747.71, +81.11 or +1.06%. As expected, action was sluggish due to absenteeism for the Labor Day Weekend and the incessant intervention by Team Trump, including his best buddy on the Fed, Governor Waller. Positive aspects of previous session S&P +1.06%, DJIA +1.18%, DJTA +0.71%, Nasdaq +1.4%, Nas 100 +1.16% SP Cons Discr +1.58%, Comm Services +1.51%, Financials +1.55%, Info Tech +1.25%, Real Estate +1.27%, Industrials +01.04%, Utes +0.85%, Heath Care+ 0.19% Negative aspects of previous session SP Energy -0.72%, Materials -0.46%, Cons Staples -0.03%; SOX Index only +0.11% Precious metals soared on lower interest rates Ambiguous aspects of previous session Diesel prices fell smartly while gasoline rallied moderately and oil rallied modestly. The yen/$ soared to 155.31; some same on no Fed rate hikes; others smell a serious intervention. First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7747.71 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7756.76 (14:17 ET); 7686.71 (9:30 ET) FT: OpenAI says it has overtaken Anthropic with its latest AI model ChatGPT maker claims its ‘Astra’ could be considered ‘artificial general intelligence’ Elon Musk launches steering-wheel-free Tesla Cybercabs in bet riders lose ‘no control’ fears https://trib.al/jCh7pdc Fed Balance Sheet: +$6.292B on +$6.365 T-Bills; Reserves -$30.405B Today – After traders react to the August Employment Report, trading should grow increasingly tepid due to traders exiting for the Labor Day Weekend. A strong NFP should be bad for stocks on Fed rate hike angst. A soft report will induce buying on the perception that the Fed is on hold – until the August PPI and CPI reports appear next Thursday and Friday respectively. Expected Economic Data: Aug NFP 58k, Mfg. 5k, Wages 0.3% m/m & 3.0% y/y, Rate 4.1% ESUs -2.50, NQUs 13.50, USUs +1/32, Oct WTI +$0.37, Oct Gasoline -1.4c, Yen/$ 155.74 at 20:12 ET. S&P 500 50-eay MA: 7585; 100-day MA: 7467; 200-day MA: 7136 (S&P 500 Close 7666.60) DJIA 50-day MA: 52,915; 100-day MA: 51,536; 200-day MA: 49,824 (DJIA Close 53,061.95) (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) @ScotBertram: Circulation for the Chicago Tribune: 2000-2023: Dropped from 600,000 to 73,000 on weekdays (-88%) 2023-2026: Dropped from 73,000 to 44,100 on weekdays (-40%) Overall, 2000-2026, weekday circulation has declined by 93%. Just Out: US Newspaper PRINT Circulations 2026 The top 50 titles by combined print and digital circulation posted a collective average year-on-year print decline of 15%… https://mediaconfidential.blogspot.com/2026/09/just-out-us-newspaper-print.html We hope you have a relaxing and safe Labor Day Weekend. | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT]
Dave Smith: “Israel Is On The Ballot And Israel Is About To Deliver Us Socialism”
Thursday, Sep 03, 2026 – 04:40 PM
Last night’s debate on the Iran war brought together Alan Dershowitz and libertarian Dave Smith for a wide-ranging clash over Iran, Israel, and … you guessed it: Antisemitism!
Dershowitz defended the case for confronting Iran while calling Smith a racist, bigot, and an important part of the “2000 year history” of antisemitism. Smith made a few jabs back while arguing the Iran war is the worst decision in modern U.S. history. Dersh maintained that he is pro-regime change by “almost any means,” justifying this position by invoking Hitler.
We recommend the full debate, but here were two highlights:
“Israel is about to deliver us socialism”
Dershowitz noted that Israel itself is increasingly becoming an electoral issue and said Americans will ultimately be able to make up their minds on whether to continue supporting the country financially/militarily:
“We’re having an election coming up. Israel is very much on the ballot in many places,” Dershowitz said.
Smith strongly agreed that Israel and its enormous backlash over their conduct in Gaza:
“I’m so glad you said that, because Israel is about to deliver us socialism… Israel’s on the ballot and Israel is so hated right now that we’re gonna turn to socialism instead.”
There is a strong basis for Smith’s prediction for anyone paying attention. The most anti-Israel wing of Democratic politics overlaps considerably with its socialist wing. The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) officially supports BDS (boycott, divest, sanctions against Israel) and requires candidates seeking its national endorsement to satisfy a set of “Anti-Zionist requirements.” Much of this aligns with sentiments on the populist right – minus the socialism.
The result, according to Smith, will be more Mandami’s, more Al Sayed’s, and more Ilhan Omar’s.
Reagan got over Beirut pretty quickly…
Dershowitz brought up the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing, which killed 241 American servicemen – and is frequently invoked by the hawks – as part of the case against Iran.
Smith pushed back on the premise because technically “Iran didn’t kill our Marines in Lebanon” and that it was “a proto-Hezbollah type group” that the Iranians funded.
Still, conceding the premise, Smith went on to describe how President Ronald Reagan. just two years later, went on to covertly arm the Iranians in their war against Iraq. An operation assisted by the Israelis:
“At least be consistent. Two years after that attack on our Marines, Ronald Reagan, at the behest of the Israelis, sold weapons to the Iranians.”
These secret arm sales are now common knowledge and part of the larger Iran-Contra scandal, wherein also, according to former WH aide Barbara Honegger’s book October Surprise, then VP candidate George HW Bush flew to Iran ahead of the Reagan-Carter 1980 election. There Bush promised the Iranians money and weapons as long as the regime not release the American hostages until after election day (to tip the election in Reagan’s favor)… the hostages being another talking point of the hawks today painting the Iranians as fanatics.
Meanwhile, the Reagan administration had also tilted toward Saddam Hussein’s Iraq during the same war, providing intelligence and other assistance despite Iraq’s use of chemical weapons, which per Scott Horton’s Enough Already, they greenlit in secret while essentially saying “go ahead but FYI were gonna have to condemn this stuff if public.”
Smith’s point: if Reagan and Israel could work with and even arm Tehran two years after Beirut, citing the bombing more than four decades later as a standing justification for war deserves some scrutiny.
“If two years after that, Ronald Reagan and the Israeli government could deal weapons to the Iranians, don’t come back to me… now and start using that just as one of your pylons because you need another little piece of something that sounds like a justification.”
Watch the full debate below or listen on the ZeroHedge Spotify:
END
AUSTIN TEXAS
wow! this gal is good!!
Austin Woman Arrested After Police Find Hundreds Of Suspected Stolen Bank Cards, Keys And Mail
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Sep 03, 2026 – 10:10 PM
A routine arrest in North Austin developed into a much broader investigation after police said they discovered a large collection of mail, payment cards, checks and postal keys believed to have been stolen, according to Yahoo.
Austin police arrested 42-year-old Elizabeth Rozo on Aug. 25 after officers tracked her to an apartment complex near Tech Ridge Boulevard. Authorities were looking for Rozo because she was wanted on a warrant stemming from a credit or bank card abuse investigation.
Officers with the department’s North Metro Tactical Unit reportedly watched Rozo leave the apartment complex and enter a vehicle. They followed her before initiating a traffic stop.
The investigation expanded significantly when officers searched the vehicle. Police said they recovered roughly 400 bank cards believed to have been stolen, along with nearly 300 gift cards. Investigators suspect at least some of the gift cards had been purchased using compromised bank cards.
Officers also discovered two counterfeit Arrow Keys, a type of master key associated with U.S. Postal Service mail equipment. Such keys can potentially be used to open certain shared mailboxes and other postal receptacles, making them particularly valuable to people seeking access to mail belonging to multiple households.
Evidence from the vehicle led investigators to secure a warrant for Rozo’s apartment. The second search produced considerably more material, according to police.
By the time officers finished searching the vehicle and residence, authorities said they had collected thousands of pieces of suspected stolen mail and hundreds of checks. They also recovered about two dozen identification documents that police believe were either stolen or fraudulently produced.
Investigators reported finding 17 stolen postal keys in addition to the two counterfeit keys discovered during the investigation. Authorities have not publicly explained how the postal keys were allegedly obtained or identified how many mailboxes could have been accessed with them. Police also have not announced an estimate of how many people may ultimately be connected to the recovered mail and financial documents.
Yahoo writes that approximately two ounces of suspected methamphetamine was also recovered during the investigation, according to reports.
The volume and variety of the seized material could make determining the full scope of the case a lengthy process. Investigators must examine the mail, checks, cards and identification documents to determine where they came from and whether they are connected to additional offenses or victims.
Postal master keys have become a concern for law enforcement because one compromised key can potentially expose mail belonging to numerous residents. Once mail is taken, checks can be altered or fraudulently deposited, while bank cards and personal information can be used in financial fraud or identity theft schemes.
The Austin Police Department has dealt with similar cases recently. In July, police announced the results of a separate investigation involving counterfeit Arrow Keys. That case led authorities to recover hundreds of pieces of mail, thousands of checks, payment cards, identification documents and equipment that investigators said was associated with counterfeiting.
Rozo was initially booked on the outstanding warrant involving alleged credit or bank card abuse. Police also charged her with unlawful conduct involving a mail receptacle or lock and manufacture or delivery of a controlled substance involving methamphetamine.
Authorities said the investigation remains active and additional charges could follow as detectives work through the material that was seized. Rozo has been arrested and charged, but the accusations against her remain allegations unless proven in court.
Police say missing mail can sometimes provide an early indication that personal or financial information has been compromised. Residents who are expecting checks, replacement credit or debit cards, tax documents or other sensitive correspondence may want to contact the sender if those items fail to arrive.
Authorities also recommend retrieving mail soon after delivery and using USPS Hold Mail when away from home for an extended period. Informed Delivery can provide digital previews of many incoming mail pieces, which may help residents notice when expected correspondence disappears.
Checks can present an additional risk because information on a stolen check may be altered before it is deposited or cashed. Police recommend using permanent ink, avoiding unnecessary blank spaces when writing checks and periodically examining images of processed checks for unexpected changes to the recipient or amount.
END
Enes Kanter Freedom Files Lawsuit After Chicago Sky Ejection, Ban
Friday, Sep 04, 2026 – 01:40 PM
Authored by Timothy Frudd via The Epoch Times,
Former NBA player Enes Kanter Freedom filed a lawsuit on Sept. 3 after he was ejected during a Women’s National Basketball Association (WNBA) game and banned from future games.
Kanter Freedom sued the Chicago Women’s Basketball Operations, LLC, which operates the Chicago Sky. The Metropolitan Pier and Exposition Authority and the City of Chicago were also named in the complaint.
The lawsuit alleged that the three entities conspired and acted together to discriminate against Kanter Freedom based on his “verbal and demonstrable expression of viewpoint and gender identity” by wrongfully ejecting him from the Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever game on Aug. 23 at Wintrust Arena in Chicago.
Security escorted Kanter Freedom out of Wintrust Arena after an altercation occurred between the former NBA player and Chicago Sky guard Natasha Cloud.
After Cloud scored late in the third quarter, she appeared to approach Kanter Freedom, who was seated along the baseline. In Thursday’s lawsuit, Kanter Freedom alleged that Cloud “without provocation, initiated a vulgar, profanity-laced verbal tirade” directed at him.
Thursday’s lawsuit stated that Kanter Freedom believed Cloud was “motivated and triggered” by the message on his shirt and his “widely publicized viewpoint on protecting the integrity of women only sports.”
At the time of the incident, Kanter Freedom was wearing a black shirt bearing the words, “WOMAN noun. adult human female.”
During the altercation, Kanter Freedom stood up with his arms outstretched and stepped onto the basketball court before basketball officials, multiple Chicago Sky players, and security personnel moved between the two. Kanter Freedom was then escorted from the arena.
Kanter Freedom addressed the lawsuit against the Chicago Sky in a social media post on Thursday.
Kanter Freedom said he was “peacefully exercising” his First Amendment rights at the WNBA game.
“My T-shirt did what the whole @WNBA apparently couldn’t: define a woman. No threats. No violence. Just biology. And somehow, that required a security escort,” he wrote.
“You don’t have to agree with my speech but you don’t get to silence me for it,” he added. “I will not be intimidated. I will not be silenced. I will continue to stand for women and defend free speech.”
Chicago Sky owner Michael Alter announced on Aug. 25 that Kanter Freedom would not be allowed in the arena for future games unless he was able to prove that he could “abide by our rules without being a potential threat.”
Alter also accused Kanter Freedom of having attended the game to provoke the players and attract attention.
The lawsuit alleged that Alter mischaracterized both the altercation between Kanter Freedom and Cloud and his intention to “protect women only sports.” Kanter Freedom also denied provoking Cloud prior to her approach at the game.
“The Chicago Sky; [Metropolitan Pier and Exposition Authority], through Wintrust Arena Security; and the City of Chicago, by its Police Department, worked together to eject Plaintiff in retaliation for protected expression, and continue to work together to enforce the ongoing, unconstitutional ban of Plaintiff from Wintrust Arena, which is public property owned by MPEA,” the lawsuit stated.
“Plaintiff’s damages continue as long as the unconstitutional ban of Plaintiff from Wintrust Arena remains in place.”
The lawsuit asked the court to award nominal and compensatory damages, as well as attorney fees for Kanter Freedom. It also asked for a permanent injunction directing the defendants to remove the ban on his attendance at Wintrust Arena.
The Metropolitan Pier and Exposition Authority told The Epoch Times on Sept. 3 that it did not have any comment on the lawsuit filed by Kanter Freedom. The corporation noted that its agreement with the Chicago Sky gave the WNBA team the ability to control whether individuals were permitted to access Wintrust Arena on game days.
“The Chicago Sky informed MPEA that Enes Freedom was removed from the arena and banned from future Chicago Sky events because he violated rules imposed by the WNBA,” the Metropolitan Pier and Exposition Authority said. “MPEA employees were not involved in those decisions.”
The Metropolitan Pier and Exposition Authority added that the Chicago Sky’s ban of Kanter Freedom was only applicable to WNBA games and did not apply to other events at Wintrust Arena.
The Epoch Times reached out to the Chicago Sky and the City of Chicago but did not receive a response before publication time.
GREG HUNTER….
SEE YOU ON TUESDAY
harveyorganblog.com 
