EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,416.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/09/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 09/11/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 1
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 1
709 C BARCLAYS 1
905 C ADM 3
TOTAL: 3 3
MONTH TO DATE: 2,720
SEPT 10
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT./2026: 3 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 300 OZ or 0.00933 TONNES
total notices so far: 2720 contracts FOR 272,000 OZ OR 8.4603 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES:114 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 570,000 OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5154 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 25.770 million oz
GLD
SEPT: INITIAL STANDING: 24.172 MILLION OZ//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 57 CONTRACT OR 285,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 27.665 MILLION OZ//
SEPT: INITIAL STANDING 8.756 MILLION OZ//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 285,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 27.665 MILLION OZ
GOLD COMEX OUTLINE;
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 345 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 34,500 OZ/ (1.073 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 345 CONTRACTS OR 34500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 24.635 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES OF GOLD.
JUNE; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 64.496 TONNES.(CME CORRECTED) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.0186 TONNES/NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRSST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F 0.0062 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 40.824TONNES
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 5TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 5 CONTRACTS FOR 500 OZ OR 0.0155 TONNESS TO OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 200 CONTRACTS OR 20,000 OZ OR 6.220 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.7045 TONNES TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.552 TONNES TO OUR FIRST 0.0715 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.9688 AND THEN ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 39 CONTRACTS FOR 3,900 OZ OR 0.1213 TONNES//STANDING THUS ADVANCES TO 67.2441 TONNES
SEPT: INITIAL STANDING: 8.756 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 23 CONTRACTS OR 2300 OZ QUEUE JUMP (.0715 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO, 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES//// // NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.0528 TONNES..
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS IN GOLD ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3,719 CONTRACTS WITH 2923 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL SIZED 796 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.
THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3719 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED AND CRIMINAL 2263 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON .
GOLD PRICE ROSE BY $20.40
STANDING FOR THE LAST 8 MONTHS JANUARY TO AUGUST:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW FINAL STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 345 CONTRACTS/34,500 OZ// 1.073 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MAY// 5 OCCASIONS: 24.635 TONNES///NEW FINAL STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER JUMP OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING 127.03 TONNES//FINAL
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0000 TONNES/ PLUS 0.0062 TONNES EX FOR RISK///NEW STANDING FOR GOLD REMAINS AT 40.824TONNES.
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST 0.0715 TONNES EXCHANGE TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 1.552 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF: 1.7045//TOTAL FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK 3.3312 TONNES TO OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 200 CONTRACTS FOR 0.6220 TONNES/TO OUR 5TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.0155 TONNES//TOTALL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.9688 TONNES TO OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.1213 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.2441 TONNES
SEPT: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.756 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2300 OZ QUEUE JUMP (.0715 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SECOND 1000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO OUR FIRST: THUS// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 6.2208 TONNES// NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16/0528 TONNES.
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
YEAR 2026:
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 118.430 TONNES
JUNE: 142.053 TONNES
JULY: 163.82 TONNES
AUGUST: 151.107 TONNES
SEPT: 35.573 TONNES
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SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 17.10 PTS OR 0.43%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 321.96 PTS OR 1.27%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 89.22 PTS OR 0.14%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.36%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7065
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7055 Oil UP TO 96.62 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 101.60 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7065 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7055 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMITS
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE 1416 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 104,666
EFP ISSUANCE 235 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 235 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1416 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 235 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE GAIN OF 1651 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.56
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 8.258 MILLION PAPER OZ
STANDING SEPT AT 27.665 MILLION OZ
SILVER PRICE GAIN OF $0.56
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LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR 2923 CONTRACTS TO 414,159 STILL WELL ABOVE ITS NEW LOW OF 326,052 OI SET JUNE 3, CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 345,705 SET (MAY 28) AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 353,490 SET MAY 27.. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 326,052 //JUNE 3 2026 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,450.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING//RAID. IT SEEMS THAT MANY OF THE SPECULATORS THAT HAVE NOW CONTINUED AGAIN TO BE ON THE SHORT SIDE WITH BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE AND THESE GUYS WERE AGAIN OBLITERATED YESTERDAY WHEN THE LONGS TENDERED FOR DELIVERY:
CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS JULY CONTRACT MONTH!!
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (3719 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE IN GOLD (UP $20.40)
WE THUS HAD A FAIR GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES (3719 CONTRACTS), WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A SMALL CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE EQUATING TO 796 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A 0 CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD. TOTAL THUS SO FAR THIS MONTH: 2000 CONTRACTS//200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES (2 OCCASIONS)
MONTH OF MAY RECORD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK: THE HIGHEST EVER ISSUANCE!!
MAY 22 RECORDS THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 12.4416 TONNES. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THE THIRD ON MAY 18 , THEN MAY 21 OUR 4TH ISSUANCE AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY, OUR 5TH ISSUANCE. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH JULY AND AUGUST
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS OR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES.
JUNE: 0 IN GOLD. THUS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IN GOLD ZERO NOTICES WERE FILED.
JULY: 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES
AUGUST: 1276 CONTRACTS FOR 127,600 OZ OR 3.9688 TONNES (5 OCCASIONS THIS MONTH)
SEPT: SO FAR: 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNESS (TWO OCCASIONS)
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO AUGUST:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 131+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS, 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
JUNE: ZERO
JULY 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES. I DOUBT VERY MUCH THAT THIS IS A CENTRAL BANK
AUGUST: 1276 CONTRACTS FOR 127,600 OZ OR 3.9688 TONNES//5 OCCASIONS
SEPT: SO FAR: 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES/TWO OCCASIONS
DETAILS ON OUR NEW SEPT COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3719 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE (UP $20.40). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE/JULY/AUG CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A FAIR SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 2263 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS.
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND MAY WITH ITS 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 12.4436 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 24.635 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12, MAY 18 MAY 21 AND NOW MAY 22..
THEN IT SLOWS DOWN!
JUNE: ZERO FOR THE MONTH
JULY: 2 SO FAR FOR 200 IZ IR 0.00622 TONNES
AUGUST: 1276 CONTRACTS FOR 127,600 OZ OR 3.9688 TONNES
SEPT: 2000 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES (TWO OCCASIONS)
WE MUST ALSO REMEMBER THAT THE FRBNY IS SHORT 141+ TONNES OF GOLD, THIS COMMENCED ON JAN 2 2023 AS THEY REFUSE TO COVER DESPITE THE BIS’S PLEA TO DO SO.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 16 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2025
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING FINALIZES AT 157.879 TONNES, ITS HIGHEST STANDING RECORDED IN OVER 4 YEARS.
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 34,500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNESS
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE SUBTRACT AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES// TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH FINALIZES AT 62.4217 TONNES OR AVERAGING 3.285 TONNES PER DAY IN JUNE.
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 749,300 OZ OR 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000TONNES//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 40.818TONNES PLUS 0.00622 TONNES EXHANGE FOR RISK// NEW TOTAL 40.824 TONNES . TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING SO FAR: 17.5802 TONNES OR 0.8790 TONNES ON EACH TRADING DAY LEAVING COMEX FOR EASTERN SHORES.
AUGUST INITIAL; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STANDS: 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 5TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 5 CONTRACTS FOR 500 OZ OR 0.0155 TONNES TO OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 220 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR 0.6220 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 1.7045 TONNES TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 1.552 TONNES TO OUR FIRST: 0.0715 NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 3.9688 TONNES AND THEN ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 39 CONTRACTS OR 3900 OZ (0.1213 TONNES)//STANDING, IN TOTAL, THUS ADVANCES HUGELY TO 67.2441 TONNES.
SEPT/2026. INITIAL STANDING : 8.756 TONNES//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2300 OZ OR .0715 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THIS TO OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2,000 CONTRACTS/200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES: /NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 16.0528 TONNES
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE 4 YEARS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING SEPT CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE ( IT ROSE BY $20.40)
WE HAD LITTLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING /THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE AT COMEX OF $20.40
WE HAD 818 CONTRACTS REMOVED // PRELIMINARY NUMBERS TO FINAL COMEX NUMBERS.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:3719 CONTRACTS OR 371,900 OZ 11/567 TONNES)
SEPT DELIVERY MONTH
SEPT 10
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 2 ENTRIES i) Out of Asahi 32,015 oz ii) Out of Brinks 64.300 oz (2 kilobars) total withdrawal: 32,080.021 oz |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold 1 ENTRIES i) Into Loomis 32,1500.000 oz total deposit 32,150.000 oz (1000 kilobars) xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 3 CONTRACTS 300 OZ 0.00933 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 441 Contracts 44,100 OZ 1.371 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 2720 notices 272,000 OZ 8.4603 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
ENTRIES: 1
i) Into Loomis 32,1500.000 oz
total deposit 32,150.000 oz
(1000 kilobars)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawal
2 ENTRIES
i) Out of Asahi 32,015 oz
ii) Out of Brinks 64.300 oz (2 kilobars)
total withdrawal: 32,080.021 oz
adjustments: 0
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT OI STANDS AT 442 CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 141 CONTRACTS.
WEDNESDAY WE HAD NORMAL STANDING AT 313,800 OZ //TODAY: 316,100 OZ STAND. THUS A GAIN OF 2300 OZ(0.0715 TONNES) OR 23 CONTRACTS UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP.
OCT GAINED 992 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 47,999
NOVEMBER GAINED 3 CONTRACTS RISING TO 669
.
We had 162 contracts filed for today representing 16,200 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 3 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPT /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2720) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (442 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 3 x 100 oz per contract) equals 316,100 OZ OR (9.8320Tonnes of gold) to which we add our two exchange for risk, 2000 contracts or 200,000 oz (6.2208 tonnes)///// thus new standing thus advances to 16.0528 tonnes
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPT. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2720) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(442) contracts minus the number of notices served upon today 3 x 100 oz per contract) equals 316,100 OZ OR (9.8320 Tonnes of gold) to which we add our two exchange for risk of 6.2208 tonnes/new standing advances to 16.0528 tonnes
new total of gold standing in SEPT becomes 15.9821TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT 16.0528 TONNES TONNES WHICH IS NOW VERY STRONG FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT
confirmed volume WEDNESDAY confirmed 189,132/ fair//
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,757,141.487 oz 54.654 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,757,141.487 tonnes oz 54.654 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 27,377,527.229 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 15,120,219.227 tonnes (470.302 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 12,257,308.005 oz. Lots of eligible gold leaving the comex
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,363,078 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
415.647 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
SEPT DELIVERY MONTH
SEPT 10
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 3 entries i) Out of Delaware 1936.800 oz ii) Out of Asahi 1,205,842.200 oz iii) Out of JPMorgan 1,220,176.600 oz total withdrawal: 2,427,955.600 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 1 ENTRY i) into Stonex dealer: 320,254.810 oz total deposit 320,254.810 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | ENTRIES: 0 |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 114 CONTRACT(S) ( 570,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 349 Contracts (1.745 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5184 contracts 25.770 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
ENTRY:1
i) into Stonex dealer: 320,254.810 oz
total deposit 320,254.810 oz
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
2 ENTRIES:
i) Into Asahi 1785,588.110 oz
ii) Into Brinks 77,977.397 oz
total deposit: 1,863,515.704 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals:
3 entries
i) Out of Delaware 1936.800 oz
ii) Out of Asahi 1,205,842.200 oz
iii) Out of JPMorgan 1,220,176.600 oz
total withdrawal: 2,427,955.600 oz
adjustments : customer to dealer account
a) Brinks: 85,282.759 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 97.938 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 337.832 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR SEPT
FRONT MONTH: SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS: 463 FOR A GAIN OF 26 CONTRACTS.
WEDNESDAY WE HAD 27.380 MILLION OZ STAND: TODAY 27.665 MILLION OZ FOR A GAIN OF 0.285 MILLION OZ (285,000 OZ OR A 57 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TAKE EXTRA DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
OCT LOST 13 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 2833
NOVEMBER GAINED 108 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 440
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 114 or 0.570 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume WEDNESDAY; 63,308// fair/
AND NOW SEPT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5184 X5,000 oz = 25.770 MILLION oz.
Then we take the difference between the front month of September and the number of notices filed for today x 5000 to give us our standing
Thus the standings for silver for the Sept 2026 contract month: (5184 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPT (463) minus number of notices served upon today ( 114 x 5000 oz) equals silver standing for the SEPT .contract month equating to 27.665 MILLION OZ. ( a very strong delivery month)
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 97.938 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 136.678/337.832million: 40.58%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
/SEPT 10//2026/WITH GOLD UP $50.60 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.63 TONNES
SEPT 9//2026/WITH GOLD UP $20.40 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.63 TONNES
SEPT 8//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $34.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.42 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.06 TONNES
SEPT 4//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $63.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.48 TONNES
SEPT 3//2026/WITH GOLD UP $141.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 9.98 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.62 TONNES
SEPT 2//2026/WITH GOLD UP $19.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.64 TONNES
SEPT 1//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $80.25 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.36 TONNES
AUGUST 31//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $48.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.25 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.36 TONNES
AUGUST 28//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $119.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.64 TONNES
AUGUST 27//2026/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.950 TONNES
AUGUST 26//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1/138 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.950 TONNES
AUGUST 25//2026/WITH GOLD FLAT /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.279 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.489 TONNES
AUGUST 24//2026/WITH GOLD UP $15.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 12.50 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.21 TONNES
AUGUST 21//2026/WITH GOLD UP $103.98 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.65 TONNES
AUGUST 20//2026/WITH GOLD UP $29.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 9.41 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.65 TONNES
AUGUST 19//2026/WITH GOLD UP $123.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.42 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.24 TONNES
AUGUST 18//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $51.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 7.13 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1030.66 TONNES
AUGUST 17//2026/WITH GOLD UP $36.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD FORM THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.53 TONNES
AUGUST 14//2026/WITH GOLD UP $16.55 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.80 TONNES
AUGUST 13//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $43.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3,139 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025,80TONNES
AUGUST 12//2026/WITH GOLD UP $24.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.562 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022.672TONNES
AUGUST 11//2026/WITH GOLD UP $20.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.52 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1020.06TONNES
AUGUST 10//2026/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.82 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017. 540TONNES
/AUGUST 7//2026/WITH GOLD UP $98.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.720TONNES
AUGUST 6//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.851 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.143TONNES
AUGUST 5//2026/WITH GOLD UP $59.75 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.146 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.874TONNES
AUGUST 3//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.80 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WIITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1007.02TONNES
JULY 31//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $50.40 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 30//2026/WITH GOLD UP $63.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 29//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 28//2026/WITH GOLD UP 21.50 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 27.2026/WITH GOLD UP 21.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JLY 24/2026/WITH GOLD UP 6.30 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 98.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1007.87TONNES
JULY 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP $73.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1050.63 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
SEPT 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.50 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.171 MILLION OZ
SEPT 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.56 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.171 MILLION OZ
SEPT 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.31 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ A DEPOSIT OF 0.632 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.171 MILLION OZ
SEPT 4 WITH SILVER UP $2.20 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.539 MILLION OZ
SEPT 3 WITH SILVER UP $2.20 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.293 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.539 MILLION OZ
SEPT2 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.832 MILLION OZ
SEPT1 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.43 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.832 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.97 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 0.452 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.832 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.44 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.543,000 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.380 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 27 WITH SILVER UP $1.33 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.923 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.60 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.174 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.923 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.43 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.9786 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.097 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.633 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.754 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 21 WITH SILVER UP $1.48 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.121 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 20 WITH SILVER UP $2.92 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.169 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.121 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 19 WITH SILVER UP $1.72 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.259 MILLION OZ OZ INTO THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.02 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 768,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.296 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 17 WITH SILVER UP $1.11 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 768,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.296 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.19 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 720,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.064 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.92 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.341 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.75 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A DEPOSIT OF 3.434 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.341 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A DEPOSIT OF 1.085 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.907 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 10 WITH SILVER UP $1.83 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV; / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.822 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 7 WITH SILVER UP $2.00 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.355 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.822 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.75 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.467 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 5 WITH SILVER UP $2.20: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV :// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.673 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV :A DEPOSIT OF 2.893 MILLION OZ FROIM THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.673 MILLION OZ
JULY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.90: :NOCHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 30 WITH SILVER UP $0.97: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 723,000 OZ INTO THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.34: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.057 MILLION OZ
JULY 28 WITH SILVER UP $0.27: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.633 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.057 MILLION OZ
JULY 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.27: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.722 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.690 MILLION OZ
JULY 24 WITH SILVER UP $1.45: :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.413 MILLION OZ
JULY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN 2.18: :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A DEPOSIT OF 0.723MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.413 MILLION OZ
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP $1.45: :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.217 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.690 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 493.171 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF//JOHN RUBINO
JOHN RUBINO..
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ//ALASDAIR MACLEOD
Japan Is Telling You To Run To Gold
Wednesday, Sep 09, 2026 – 05:00 PM
Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via Von Greyerz,
Below, we look at lessons from Japan and its latest signals to prepare for a market sell-off, a debasement acceleration and a golden endgame.
Pattern Recognition
My father taught me long ago that the years teach things the days do not always notice.
In all areas of our lives, we slowly acquire perspectives earned by experience over theory and by time rather than guesses.
This is equally true of lives spent investing in markets and cycles. A certain pattern recognition is acquired that not even a Bloomberg terminal or AI robot can teach.
As one, for example, who traded through a dot.com bubble led by the undeniably transformative technology of the internet of all things, I remember well how everyone from Wall Street experts to Hollywood movies made it clear that names like Cisco, Yahoo and AOL were kings who would never be dethroned.
That felt very exciting.
At least until the NASDAQ lost 78% and two of those “kings” were carried off the market on their shields, while Cisco, which at least survived the carnage, would never be the same again.
Those days and years are now teaching us yet another lesson, one whose pattern few wish to see, for the simple reason that many are not, or never were, paying attention.
And as for such patterns or lessons, what very few are seeing today is that Japan’s JGB, yen and Nikkei have just given us a familiar road map for what lies ahead for America’s Fed, dollar and S&P.
I Think We’re Turning Japanese (Yes, I Really Think So)
What is happening this year in Japan goes well beyond the otherwise significant conversations on the Japanese “Carry Trade.”
As bond jocks constantly remind us of boring things like sovereign debt yields, it can often be too boring (or too scary) to confront.
Like the sun, topics like death and bond markets are often hard to look at directly.
The fact, for example, that the yield on the Japanese 30Y JGB just hit over 4.18% for the first time in its history may seem like a yawn to many otherwise doom-scrolling through the latest war, AI meme or DC scandal de jour.
But this historical yield spike out of Tokyo is far more than just another bond signal – it’s a harbinger of things to come in your own backyard (and wallet).
The Canary in a Coal Mine
Much like the USA, today’s Japan (which is the world’s 3rd largest economy) is a paper tiger built on extraordinary debt (greater than 200% of its total economy) and a bond and hence stock market entirely supported by (and correlated to) a central bank fatally addicted to printing (debasing) trillions worth of its currency to keep its illusion of economic survival going.
If this profile looks a lot like America’s and Europe’s, that’s because Japan is just a canary in the Western coal mine. Where it goes, we shall follow.
In fact, Japan’s sins are in many ways our own, especially America’s.
Blame It on the Experts
Just after the Nikkei literally died in 1989, a then-ambitious and much younger Ben Bernanke gave Tokyo a handbook to print their way out of collapse.
Bernanke would use a similar handbook when U.S. markets tanked years later in 2008. As we are now discovering, his expertise was anything but expert.
But during this period of mass MMT delusion and massive currency debasement, Wall Street was betting for years (decades) that Japan’s debt levels would eventually implode under inevitably rising bond yields (and hence debt costs).
For literally decades, Wall Street mavericks were betting big on a yield spike that would re-crush the Nikkei and JGB in one big headline.
But this headline never came, and the foregoing bet against Japan became known on the Street as the “widow maker.”
Buying Time, Postponing Pain
Instead, the BoJ bought itself decades of time and a market recovery by printing just unthinkable levels of yen to keep JGBs (Japanese bonds) bought and the Nikkei higher.
For the near entirety of my career, this kept Japanese yields at zero to negative, buying time while crushing those who bet against Tokyo.
Which brings me back to that boring 4.18% record yield on the 30Y JGB.
This figure confirms that the dam has finally broken on the broken Japanese “plan.”
Or to use the analogy above, the canary in its coal mine just died.
For those paying attention, these rising yields just caused the Nikkei 225 to lose 200B in a single day, and this sell-off was led by the so-called “Immortal” tech kings, you know, the kind which were never supposed to fall – like AOL, Yahoo or Cisco of old.
The Sickness is Global and Currency-Killing
But what happens in Tokyo doesn’t stay in Tokyo.
Yields across the “developed” world have been rising to decade highs because the bond markets are now showing more honesty than central bankers, from Tokyo to DC.
As the yield on the Bloomberg Global Sovereign Bond Index shoots past 3.72%, yields from Australia and the UK to Germany and the USA are skyrocketing to untenable levels.
The bond market is essentially asking for more risk premium (yield) on government IOUs that are no longer trusted.
Given this global debt fiasco, is it therefore any surprise that the global broad money supply of printed paper currencies, which hit $150 TRILLION in June, has increased by a staggering 50% since 2020?
Such open currency debasement now hiding in plain sight not only explains why currencies like the USD have lost 87% in absolute purchasing power since decoupling from gold in 1971, it further explains why the world’s central banks are stacking gold at an unprecedented pace in 2026.
Physical gold is no longer an allocation or dollar “debate”; it is the open and now obvious puck direction of global collateral and the de facto international reserve asset above tanking currencies and unloved sovereign IOUs.
This is not fable but fact.
Stocks vs. Gold
But equally worth noting from the Japanese tech sell-off of late is what it reminds as to the dot.com era of yesterday and what it portends for the AI era/market of tomorrow.
Unlike the aforementioned bloodbath during the internet bubble, today’s U.S. stock market is literally being kept alive by an equally game-changing technology meme with an even greater profile of over-investment ($400B this year alone by the leading tech names), which always moves from over-bought to over-sold.
With U.S. public debt crossing 40T as rates rise to levels costing Uncle Sam (i.e. you) over $3B/day to service the interest expense, the convergence of a credit crisis is about to slam into a dying PE market, an already dead private credit market and an over-valued and over-hyped AI sector.
This suggests that what we just got a glimpse of in Japan (as to both its markets and currency) is an undeniable warning of what is to come to the U.S. NASDAQ and dollar.
Be Prepared
Timing this convergence is a mug’s game. Preparing for it is not.
Even if central banks like the Fed or BoJ “save” the markets with mouse-clicked trillions, the currency destruction necessary to support those “resilient” markets is robbing you in plain sight.
The Nikkei, for example, has seen an impressive 145% gain in the last five years, yet when measured in gold terms, the result was a net loss of -31%.
During that same period, the NASDAQ 100 has shown an impressive nominal return of 95%, yet when measured in gold, the net result has been a loss of -23%.
And if any of you were being told by your advisors over the last 12 years that USTs were the key to your safe retirement, the “risk-free returns” of Uncle Sam’s IOU, when measured against gold, have lost you 90%.
See the theft? See the real measure of wealth?
Given the foregoing interplay of rising rates, tanking bonds, debased currencies and hyper-risk in the tech sector, an allocation to physical rather than paper gold is the only asset separating the informed from the uninformed, and the wealth-protected from the wealth-destroyed.
END
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
3.CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
BIS gold swaps rose in August along with double counting and seizure concerns
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2026-09-09 19:56 Section: Daily Dispatches
7:55p ET Wednesday, September 9, 2026
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
GATA’s consultant about the Bank for International Settlements, Robert Lambourne, reports today that the bank’s gold swaps are not going away — that the bank’s August statement of account, published this week —
https://www.bis.org/publications/statement-account-31-august-2026.pdf
— indicates that its gold swaps increased by 10 tonnes during the month and now stand at 141 tonne
The swaps appear to have increased in part while the central bank of the Netherlands was transferring and repatriating gold from U.S. and Canadian government depositories in the name of “crisis preparedness” and protecting the bank better against “increasing geopolitical unrest” —
— which even the protector of the Western financial establishment, the Financial Times, attributed in part to fear of seizure by the U.S. government:
Lambourne lately has reckoned that BIS gold swaps well may be a mechanism for concealing that gold attributed to the exchange-traded fund GLD and national gold reserves has been double-counted — that is, oversubscribed — which should not surprise anyone who has pursued GATA’s extensive documentation of Western gold price suppression policy:
After all, that policy long has been based on creating a large imaginary supply of the monetary metal to use for manipulation of markets via derivatives, a policy that was essentially outlined by the secret March 1999 report of the staff of the International Monetary Fund. The report maintained that the IMF must continue to let its central bank members conflate their gold loans with their gold held securely in their own vaults, lest outsiders be able to perceive official interventions in the gold market to keep the metal’s price down:
The Netherlands central bank’s transfer of gold reserves out of the United States and Canada would be perfectly consistent with concern about double counting and seizure of gold. Indeed, double counting is effectively a form of seizure.
Lambourne’s new report about the increase in BIS gold swaps and their likely use to conceal double counting is appended.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
* * *
By Robert Lambourne
Wednesday, September 9, 2026
The Bank for International Settlements has published its August 2026 statement of account —
https://www.bis.org/publications/statement-account-31-august-2026.pdf
— from which we can estimate that the volume of the bank’s gold swaps increased by 10 tonnes in August, from 131 tonnes in July to 141 tonnes.
In Appendix 1 below is a table of GATA’s estimates of BIS gold swaps since December 2024.
As can be seen from the table, the level of gold swaps has stayed above 100 tonnes throughout 2026, a much higher level than in 2025.
A regular reader of GATA’s dispatches on the BIS gold swaps will know that over the 16-year period since the gold swaps were first reported in the bank’s 2010 annual report, we have come to believe that they are used to hide the double-counting of gold that is likely claimed as owned both by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the largest gold exchange-traded fund, whose ticker symbol is GLD.
In Appendix 2 is a copy of what was reported last month in the dispatch covering the BIS gold swaps estimated for July this year. This seems topical at the moment with recent moves by the Dutch central bank to sell its gold vaulted at the Federal Reserve and held in allocated form to be replaced by gold purchased in Europe. Hence the points made in that dispatch concerning the possible confiscation of the gold in GLD are again brought into focus.
END
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE//KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT/289
5. COMMODITY REPORT: tungsten
“Not Behind Us”: Major US Tool Distributor Warns Tungsten Cost Shock Is Hitting Factory Floors
Wednesday, Sep 09, 2026 – 09:20 PM
Speaking at the Jefferies Industrials Conference earlier on Wednesday, MSC Industrial executive Martina McIsaac warned of a tungsten supply shock rippling through the company’s supply chain and continuing to drive up industrial tooling costs.
McIsaac told Steve Volkmann, an industrial analyst at Jefferies, that inflation affecting tungsten carbide inputs is “in the neighborhood of 500%” and said suppliers were still passing higher costs through the manufacturing chain.
Cutting tools represent about 15% of MSC’s revenue, making tungsten a major source of pricing pressure for one of the largest industrial distributors of tools and supplies across North America used by factories and machine shops. Notably, Grainger and Fastenal are larger by revenue.
“Tungsten has been the biggest driver,” McIsaac said. “It’s not our whole business, but it’s a chunk of business, and it’s not behind us.“
Volkmann asked McIsaac: “Okay. And you said that it wasn’t over yet, but I believe tungsten prices have flattened out a bit.”
McIsaac responded: “They have stabilized, but the ripples through the supply chain aren’t over yet. So some suppliers, for example, depending on where they source their tungsten powder and how much they had on hand, the cadence of their increases is all different. So every supplier is behaving a little differently, but there’s still a way to come. I think we said in the third quarter, we expected late … our late fourth quarter, early first quarter, there would be another price increase.”
MSC sells tungsten-carbide cutting tools used to machine metal parts across North America. McIsaac’s comments offer one of the first examples we’ve found of how the severe tungsten shortage, driven by China’s export restrictions and continued Western demand, is pressuring industrial customers. Prices have climbed above $3,000, according to a recent Cantor Fitzgerald note.
China’s dominance of tungsten production has certainly exposed a major vulnerability in Western manufacturing and defense supply chains.
The latest Katusa Research note puts China’s share of global tungsten mine production at roughly 79% last year, or 67,000 tons out of 85,000 tons worldwide. The US has had no commercial mine production since 2015.
Beijing’s February 2025 export-licensing requirements intensified that dependence. Katusa cites a nearly 70% decline in Chinese exports of ammonium paratungstate, or APT, through the first 11 months of 2025.
Rotterdam APT prices jumped from around $390 per metric ton unit at the beginning of 2025 to roughly $3,400 this spring, according to Katusa Research.
Citing Financial Times reporting, Katusa said that Chinese traders have panic-hoarded carbide inserts, drill bits and worn tooling, sometimes bidding as much as five times normal market prices.
Christian Keller, Barclays’ global head of economics research, co-authored a note on Tuesday warning that “China’s quasi-monopolistic position provides it with significant geopolitical leverage.“
The end result has been a mad dash across the West, from governments to importers, to secure tungsten supplies outside China ahead of any further tightening of Chinese supply. However, there is only one problem…
Companies that can bring supply online sooner could capture a crucial early market advantage, including Almonty as it ramps up tungsten production in South Korea.
Deliverable supplies of critical materials from outside China can command a higher premium, reinforcing our broader decoupling theme. Our view is to identify companies positioned to bring new supplies to market as governments and manufacturers rebuild supply chains on an ex-China basis.
END
COMMODITIES: ALL OF THEM:
HSBC Sees “Upside Risks” From “Super Squeeze” In Commodities
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 06:55 AM
London copper futures are trading north of $14,700 a ton, Brent crude futures have climbed above $101 a barrel, US diesel crack spreads are back in triple-digit territory, and the Bloomberg Commodity Index is at a 14-year high. The energy shock has broadened into a rally across the commodity complex, from energy to agricultural products to metals and other critical materials, with a growing number of Wall Street research desks identifying tightening physical supplies as a key driver.
HSBC chief economist for global commodities Paul Bloxham is the latest to warn that a “super-squeeze” in commodity markets continues to produce outsized gains.
“The ‘super-squeeze’ has continued to support elevated commodity prices … as the Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars and El Niño disrupt supplies … and AI and electrification drive demand,” Bloxham wrote at the start of the note. “Prices are expected to remain elevated, and there are upside risks.”
To illustrate the broad-based surge in commodity prices, the Bloomberg Commodity Index is now at levels last seen in 2012, marking a 14-year high…
… while the Quantix Commodity Index has hit a new record high.
Bloxham told clients to focus on these ten themes:
1) A’super-squeeze’ continues …
Six months after the Middle East conflict began, it is still a key driver of commodity prices. Commodity prices are well above the pre-Iran war levels, despite being below the peaks reached early in the conflict. The worst-case possibilities have, so far, been avoided, largely because of rapid drawdown of inventories, but the global commodity price index is up 18% YTD and 24% y-o-y in August. The team’s base case sees an average rise of 22% in 2026 (16% prior) and flat in 2027 (-7% prior), leaving our 2027 forecast 14% higher than previously expected.
We see risks to these forecasts being to the upside as the ‘super-squeeze’ continues.
2) … with disruption from the Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars …
The Middle East conflict remains the key risk. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with significant uncertainties about when it will open and on what terms. A cycle of escalation and de-escalation of the conflict has been repeated many times in recent months, driving volatility. The Middle East conflict has also broadened, with attacks by the Houthis on Saudi ships in the Red Sea disrupting traffic though the Bab el-Mandeb Strait too. In addition, the Russia-Ukraine war, which is now in its fifth year, has been a more acutely disruptive force recently, including for supplies of grains and refined oil products, like diesel.
3) … and a strong El Niño weather event
Extreme weather is another upside risk to prices. A strong El Niño has arrived, with the Southern Oscillation Index already at extremes not reached in over two decades. This is a particular risk for agricultural supply, where the Middle East conflict has already disrupted fertiliser and diesel supplies and the Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted shipping. A recent Northern Hemisphere heatwave has also shifted patterns in energy consumption with implications for stocks of key energy commodities. El Niño is also affecting manufacturing supply chains, and thereby impacting commodity markets.
4) Inventory rundown in focus, particularly for oil and gas
High inventories and rapid drawdown of these inventories – particularly of oil and gas – has been a key factor helping to, so far, balance markets in the face of the ‘super-squeeze’. In the oil market, the US has been exporting more – as it runs down its strategic reserves – and China has been importing much less – as it too runs down reserves. However, the longer the disruptions continue, the greater the upside risk to prices, as stocks fall to levels that start to approach ‘tank bottom’. For gas, European inventories are well below target, reflecting a very hot summer, with lower stocks increasing the risk of high prices in the coming winter.
5) More than just oil – sulphur, diesel and jet fuel disrupted too
The supply disruptions, particularly due to the Middle East conflict, extend well beyond oil and gas. In particular, there have been significant disruptions to supplies of sulphur, fertiliser, aluminium and helium — as well as a range of refined oil byproducts, such as jet fuel, naphtha and diesel. The Russia-Ukraine war has more acutely affected supplies of products such as diesel, as the conflict has led to recent significant damage to refining capacity.
6) Metals and energy prices supported by AI and electrification
Most base metal prices have risen recently, as the boom in AI infrastructure investment and the energy transition have supported electrification demand. Copper prices have increased to all-time highs, partly reflecting strong demand, but also limited investment in new mines constraining supply and supply disruptions. For aluminium, although the Middle East conflict has been disruptive, China dominates global supply and some cargoes have cleared the Strait of Hormuz, containing the upside to prices. Lithium prices have also risen strongly over the past year, up 130%, but as with previous cycles, this has triggered more supply, particularly from Zimbabwe and Australia, which could curb the price upside.
7) China’s slowdown weighs on bulk commodities
Despite good support for base metals from the AI and electrification booms, falling fixed asset investment in China, particularly the ongoing property correction, which is now in its fifth year, has weighed on demand for iron ore, coking coal and steel. That being said, this year China’s authorities announced more infrastructure investment plans, worth around RMB7 trillion, as part of the ‘Six Networks’ initiative, which should support demand for bulk commodities and their prices. For iron ore, on the supply side, there have been large changes to pricing as the China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) centralised Chinese buying and the ramp-up in production from the Simandou mine in Guinea adds in more supply.
8) Grains and ‘finer foods’ prices rise, as supply squeezed
Agricultural markets have been heavily affected by the disruptive impacts of the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars, particularly to supplies of fertilisers and diesel. The El Niño event, Northern hemisphere heatwave and record high ocean temperatures (a positive Indian dipole) are all risks to the outlook for supplies. An El Niño event creates more volatility in agricultural prices, by disrupting supply. Winners are typically North and South America, with much of Asia typically worse off, with higher drought risk in Australia and Indonesia, a weaker monsoon in India and hotter and drier conditions in South-East Asia. Grains prices have been rising recently, led by wheat, and ‘finer foods’ prices are rising too – particularly cocoa and coffee.
9) Precious metal prices are high and we see more upside
After a significant rise in precious metals prices through 2025 – gold prices more than doubled to their peak in January 2026 – prices have edged lower across the precious metals complex year-to-date in 2026. A key driver has been a rise in interest rates – particularly at the long-end of yield curves – which has encouraged investors to seek yield and thus move away from precious metals. That being said, with geopolitical risk still high, central bank demand still positive, and more uncertainty in bond markets, precious metals prices are well supported. Platinum and palladium prices may also be supported by constrained mine supply.
10) COCCLES suggests a ‘super-bull’ phase underway
Finally, HSBC’s purely statistical model, COCCLES, which looks for patterns in commodity prices, shows that the market is convincingly in a ‘super-bull’ phase of the cycle.
This model is not structural, but it does tend to be the case that once a super-bull phase begins, it tends to persist much longer than the other phases do.
This model result lends statistical support to the view that commodity prices will remain elevated.
With HSBC’s commodity-cycle model firmly signaling a “super-bull” phase, the big question for traders now is how long physical scarcity themes and other supply constraints can collide with demand to sustain the rally.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 17.10 PTS OR 0.43%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 321.96 PTS OR 1.27%
Nikkei CLOSED UP 89.22 PTS OR 0.14%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.36%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 6.7065
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.7055 Oil UP TO 96.62 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 101.60 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP (6.7065 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.7055 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 6.7065
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.7055
1.HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 321.96 PTS OR 1.27%
2. Nikkei closed UP 89.72 PTS OR 0.14%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 96.82
BRENT; 101.60
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN 5 BASIS PTS TO 98.76// EURO RISES TO 1.1637 UP 4 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +2.918 UP 2 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 153.60… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.998 UP 3 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP (6.7065) AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.7055
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA. CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. GOVERMENT ASKED JAPAN PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE FUNDS TO BUY MORE JAPANESE BONDS AND REPATRIATE ALL FOREIGN BONDS.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP for Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EU German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +3.4374/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP AT 4.279/ SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.886%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 4.1374%
3j Gold at $4396.00/Silver at: 66.81 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 1 AND 60/ 100 roubles/83.47
3m oil (WTI) into the 96 dollar handle for WTI and 101 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 153.18 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.918% UP 3 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS TO BE REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.998 UP 3 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.8098 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9424
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.850 UP 3 BASIS PTS…DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 5.00%
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.303 UP 3 BASIS PTS/REFUSES TO GO DOWN WITH BESSENT’S QE TWIST
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.430 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 48.50 UP 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.2648 UP 6 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.8733 UP 4 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.848 UP 4 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.486 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Slide As Yields, Oil Spike Ahead Of PPI
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 08:27 AM
US stock futures slumped for a 3rd consecutive day, unable to find traction, and trading at session lows with tech underperforming as Treasury yields pushed higher keeping risk appetite firmly in check ahead of the latest print on US factory prices and earnings from Oracle. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2%, with Nasdaq futures lagging, and down 0.5%. Pre-market, MegaCap Tech stocks are mixed, led by AAPL and META +1.0%. Overnight, TSMC reported a 53% increase in monthly sales amid strong AI infrastructure demand. Incremental macro news flow were largely muted since yesterday’s close: Trump promised $5k division if GOP wins the midterm, which sparked fresh fiscal stability concerns and pushed yields to fresh 3 year highs, as the 10Y tops 4.88%. The USD reversed an earlier drop to trade at session highs as the Yen slumps. Commodities are mixed: Oil higher (WTI +1.7%), while precious metals are lower; base metals and Ags are higher. US economic data slate includes weekly jobless claims and August PPI (8:30 a.m.) and August existing home sales and July wholesale inventories (10 a.m.). Fed speakers remain in external communications blackout period ahead of Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed but fading fast: Meta rises 1.3% as JPMorgan upgrades to overweight, citing upside potential after the social media giant launched its AI assistant (Apple +1.1%, Alphabet +0.2%, Microsoft little changed, Amazon -0.1%, Nvidia -0.5%, Tesla -0.7%
- Copper stocks are falling after Reuters reported that the White House has not yet made a decision on refined copper tariffs as it weighs concerns of higher prices raising manufacturing costs against the potential benefits of encouraging more domestic mining, citing two people familiar with the matter.
- AeroVironment (AVAV) rises 4% after the drone maker reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- American Eagle (AEO) falls 14% after the apparel firm’s second-quarter total comparable sales fell short of the average analyst estimate. Analysts note that strength at its aerie brand was more than offset by weakness at AE.
- Cooper (COO) tumbles 16% after the healthcare supplies maker cut its adjusted earnings-per-share and revenue guidance for the full year. Analysts note weakness in the firm’s CooperVision unit weighing on its sales forecast.
- JetBlue (JBLU) falls 2% after the airline cut its available seat miles forecast for the third quarter.
- Kinetik (KNTK) climbs 4% as the energy pipeline company partly owned by Blackstone is in the early stages of exploring options, including a sale, according to people familiar with the matter.
- Macy’s (M) slips 1% as investors weigh much better-than-expected comparable sales and adjusted EPS in the second quarter against a less robust third-quarter guidance.
- Navan (NAVN) slumps 15% after the software company gave an outlook that analysts said pointed to weaker trends in the second half of the year, despite overall solid growth.
- Rackspace Technology (RXT) climbs 13% after the company said it had joined the Nvidia Cloud Partner Program.
In other corporate news Citadel Securities told regulators that prediction market contracts linked to publicly-traded companies should be overseen by the SEC. Boring Co. secured $3 billion in fresh funding backed by the UAE, valuing Elon Musk’s tunneling startup at $23 billion.
Sentiment remains muted as inflationary signs grow: Brent is now trading above $103 (with Shanghai trading at $115!) as Iran vowed it was prepared for a more intense war, LME copper futures hit new records, and global tanker freight rates reached all-time highs.
Investors are also bracing for a busy calendar that could provide fresh catalysts for markets. The packed agenda comes after global yields climbed to the highest in years as the war in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, prompting traders to bet on tighter monetary policy across the globe.
First up is the latest European Central Bank interest rate decision, with a hike already priced in and the focus instead on guidance. Earnings from Oracle Corp. will offer a fresh read on the outlook for artificial intelligence.
Meanwhile, the August producer price index could offer clues on the course of inflation for the rest of the year and what it means for US rates. Today’s PPI number, followed by CPI on Friday, are key for market direction. With PPI components feeding directly into the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and Fed’s Waller saying that the August data will heavily influence his decision, a hot print could materially reprice September rate-hike odds, currently at 61%. Stocks currently have greater sensitivity to bond yields, with S&P 500 equity risk premium relative to Treasury yields at lowest since 2002.
“Today’s PPI report matters, but probably not enough on its own to change the Fed’s decision next week,” said Santiago Mateo Yanguas at CaixaBank AM. “That said, a significant upside or downside surprise could still move markets today by shifting expectations for the rate path beyond the next meeting, particularly in Treasury yields and interest rate-sensitive sectors.”
Oracle reports after the US close with its shares down 17% this year, sharply underperforming tech peers as traders punished the firm over concerns about heavy capital spending and leverage. While cloud unit sales are projected to have more than doubled in the first fiscal quarter, recent market moves show that strong earnings aren’t always enough to win investors over. Separate figures from Adobe Inc. will offer another window into how software giants are navigating the challenge from AI.
“While quarterly results may trigger short-term volatility, we see the underlying earnings trend as the more important driver of long-term equity performance,” said Francisco Simon at Santander Asset Management. “The structural growth story remains intact, and that is ultimately what matters.”
Meanwhile, markets largely shrugged off President Donald Trump’s promise to give adult US citizens a $5,000 dividend if Republicans retain control of both houses of Congress.
“Markets appear to assign a very low probability to the measure becoming law, given the significant fiscal cost and the political hurdles it would face in Congress,” said CaixaBank’s Yanguas. “Unless the proposal gains tangible legislative support, investors are likely to treat it more as campaign rhetoric.”
Still, while Trump’s offer was met with skepticism by the market, it adds to concerns about erratic policymaking at a time when Bessent is striving to keep yields down. Yesterday’s buyback announcement disappointed many who had expected more than the up to $6 billion announced: The “Treasury brought a pea shooter to a tank battle,” said Elias Haddad, Global Head of Markets Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.
Still, the ‘Trump dividend’ would cover the cost of a shiny new iPhone. Part of the sticker shock had been well flagged, with memory prices for smartphones surging as the AI buildout sucks up supply. Hyperscaler spending will be back in the spotlight after the close when Oracle reports — it’ll be a big test of market tolerance for AI spending given the company’s massive debt load.
There’s no signs of a slowdown in the AI buildout yet. TSMC posted the second fastest year-on-year monthly sales print for 2026, with the company struggling to meet overwhelming demand. Microsoft’s CFO said at an investor conference that Azure was supply constrained, while AI chipmakers in China are reportedly raising processor prices.
The upside in oil has also weighed on equities with the Stoxx 600 down 0.2% after erasing an earlier gain. European shares slipped for a third day ahead of an ECB meeting that’s expected to deliver an interest-rate increase and could offer clues on further policy tightening. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:
- FirstRand shares gained as much as 4.5%, the most since May, after the South African lender reported full-year results, which JPMorgan analysts said reflect “robust” momentum
- MP Evans Group gained as much as 6.5%, to the highest since May, after the Indonesian palm oil producer announced an acquisition of new land in Kota Bangun
- Genfit shares climbed as much as 12%, the most in over two months, after the biopharmaceutical firm outlined the commercial prospects for its non-invasive diagnostic test for MASH (metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis), sparking price-target upgrades
- D’Ieteren shares rose as much as 6.4%, the most in more than four months, after adjusted pretax profits rose in the first half
- Corbion advanced as much as 5.7%, to the highest since Feb. 2025, as Oddo BHF lifts its price target on the Dutch food ingredients firm to a joint Street-high
- AB Foods shares fell as much as 11%, the most since January, after the Primark owner reduced its profit guidance for the Sugar and Grocery divisions
- Genus shares fell as much as 9.8%, the most since February, after full-year revenue at the livestock breeding and genetics group missed analyst expectations
- Hemnet fell as much as 9.6%, the most since April, after the Swedish property listings platform announced it will pause its share buyback program of up to SEK600m in ordinary shares
- Fevertree Drinks fell as much as 6.5%, the most in more than a year, after the beverage company reported first-half earnings that came in shy of expectations
“We don’t think that the ECB would be more hawkish than current pricing,” noted Mohit Kumar at Jefferies. “We expect Lagarde to keep the future path of monetary policy data-dependent and not lean into a series of rate hikes.”
Asian stocks fell, tracking losses on Wall Street, as oil prices surged past $102 a barrel and intensified concerns that inflationary pressures would keep interest rates elevated. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.3%, the most in a week, before paring some losses as chipmakers recovered from session lows. TSMC, Delta Electronics, Tencent and Alibaba were among the biggest drags on the gauge. South Korea’s Kospi closed down 0.3%, while most other benchmarks in Asia, including Taiwan and Hong Kong, traded lower. After being down much of the day, Japan’s Topix recovered and ended 0.2% higher, with Recruit Holdings contributing the most to the gains. “Oil price fluctuations and the upside of some of the near-term escalations that we’ve seen have really been some of the key risks that market has to fathom as we head toward the the end of this year,” said Yuting Shao, senior director for global macro strategy at Manulife Investment Management. Earlier this week, MSCI’s Asia stock gauge approached near June’s record high as sectors beyond technology drove the rally. But renewed Middle East tensions have driven oil prices higher, with Brent crude holding gains after Iran said it was prepared for a more intense war with the US.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat. The krone is the weakest of the G-10’s, falling 0.3% against the greenback.
In rates, the downside in Treasuries has pushed US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.87%, the highest since October 2023. Advancing energy prices weigh on Treasuries and front-end gilts, which have underperformed during London morning. With Treasury front-end yields about 1-2bp higher on the day and 10-year about 4bp higher near 4.855%, 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are about 2bp wider. Gilts lead the selloff in European government bonds with UK two-year borrowing costs rising to the highest since November 2023. US session highlights include August PPI data, 30-year bond auction and results of the 10- to 20-year buyback shortly after 2 p.m. New York time.
WTI crude oil futures remain higher by about 1.7% after rising as much as 1.9%; Brent crude topped $102 a barrel amid signs US war on Iran will be protracted
Treasury auction cycle concludes with $22 billion 30-year bond reopening; Wednesday’s 10-year note auction drew strong demand as measured by its clearing yield 1.5bp lower than indicated by the WI level at the bidding deadline. WI 30-year yield near 5.31% is 9.4bp higher than last month’s new-issue auction result, a 0.4bp tail. IG dollar issuance slate includes Kommunalbanken 3-year offering; 16 borrowers priced $23 billion of US investment-grade bonds Wednesday, pushing two-day volume above $61 billion. Issuers paid about 4bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.1 times covered.
In commodities, Brent crude futures rise over 2% and above $103 for the first time since July with Iran ready for a more intense war. Oil prices did fall earlier in the session, providing a modicum of support to bonds after Wednesday’s selloff but that proved short lived.Spot silver falls 1% while gold is little changed.
US economic data slate includes weekly jobless claims and August PPI (8:30 a.m.) and August existing home sales and July wholesale inventories (10 a.m.). Fed speakers remain in external communications blackout period ahead of Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- Trump on Wednesday suggested his Iran war might end after the mid-terms, but some of his top advisors warn it could last the duration of his presidency, potentially extending the conflict past Inauguration Day in January 2029. WSJ
- Donald Trump promised $5,000 for every US adult if Republicans retain Congress, which must be spent in the US and will cost well over $1 trillion. The move signaled mounting concern over affordability and fiscal discipline as voters sour on the economy and Iran war. BBG
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent touted tax cuts, job increases, trade rebalance and Trump accounts during his speech at the RNC Midterm Convention.
- Within weeks of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, once Saudi Arabia’s primary export route for oil, the kingdom turned to Plan B: bypassing the strait by ramping up exports through pipelines to Red Sea. NYT
- The South Korean government is nearing the announcement of a major energy investment project in the U.S. to support America’s artificial-intelligence build-out, a long-awaited development of the trade deal struck between Washington and Seoul last year. The deal, potentially worth more than $100 billion, envisions South Korea financing the construction of up to eight nuclear power plants and a natural-gas project. WSJ
- The popularity of high-risk bets among investors looking to cash in on South Korea’s artificial-intelligence boom has caused concern at the central bank. A surge of investment in leveraged exchange-traded funds tied to tech titans such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix generated significant volatility in the domestic stock market, the Bank of Korea said, calling for stronger oversight and regulation of leveraged ETFs as they risk sowing instability. WSJ
- The ECB is widely expected to raise rates for the second time since the Iran war sent energy prices soaring. The focus will be on signals from Christine Lagarde as markets see at least two more hikes. BBG
- The Bank of Japan may eventually be forced to raise interest rates rapidly if inflation accelerates given the country’s loose financial conditions, board member Kazuyuki Masu said, warning of price risks that solidify the chance of a September hike. In a closely watched speech ahead of next week’s policy meeting, Masu warned of broadening price pressures that have pushed underlying inflation “very close” to its 2% target. Reuters
- US PPI likely firmed in August after a renewed pickup in commodity prices. Consensus expects a 0.4% monthly increase. BBG
- TSM reported record monthly revenue for August on Thursday, as demand for chips used in artificial intelligence applications remained strong. The world’s largest contract chipmaker posted revenue of $514.8 billion New Taiwan dollars ($16.35 billion) for last month, up 53.3% from a year earlier and 10.1% from July. CNBC
- BofA Total Card Spending (w/e 5th Sept) +7.8% Y/Y (prev. +3.7% W/W). BofA said that the surge in spending growth was likely due to base effects from the shift in Labour Day timing and a rebound in gas prices.
- A US AI safety bill could be introduced next week, Semafor reported citing sources.
- A US Republican-led Senate subcommittee is investigating OpenAI’s handling of the Hugging Face breach in July, Axios reported.
- S&P500 EPS growth in Q2 2026 was ~30% year / year excluding the “other income” related to some private investment stakes. Earnings for the hyperscalers and the AI infrastructure companies benefiting from their capex spending increased by 54% year / year in Q2, accounting for about 50% of S&P 500 EPS growth during the quarter. However, earnings growth for the rest of the market has also been strong and accelerating. Excluding the Energy sector profits that were boosted by higher oil prices, the rest of the S&P 500 posted year/year EPS growth of 14%: GS FICC
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly lower following the losses stateside, where all major indices declined as yields and oil prices climbed, with Brent crude topping USD 100/bbl for the first time since July. ASX 200 underperformed amid broad-based weakness across sectors and with the downside led by materials, mining, resources, and tech. Nikkei 225 was pressured alongside a higher yield environment and ongoing rate hike expectations, while BoJ board member Masu also stuck to the hawkish hymn sheet. KOSPI declined at the open but was off today’s worst levels as SK Hynix rebounded from intraday lows. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the subdued mood across the region in the absence of bullish drivers and after the PBoC conducted open market operations, but at a paltry amount of CNY 3bln.
Top Asian News
- PBoC’s Lu Lei said the Bank will refine the RRR framework and conduct open-market operations more flexibly and precisely.
- Japanese MOF Official Sato said the government is not considering buying back JGBs at this point.
European bourses are mixed, with Italy’s and Spain’s main indices (IBEX 35/FTSE MIB +0.2%) outperforming while the FTSE 100 (-0.4%) is the slight laggard. Light in terms of newsflow this Thursday morning, with focus being on US data (PPI on Thursday, CPI on Friday) and the ECB. Sectors point to a mixed picture. Autos top the sector pile, followed by Travel & Leisure and Insurance. To the downside is Tech, with Basic Resources and Construction rounding out the sector laggards.
Top European News
- German HICP Final (Aug MM) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.9%).
- German HICP Final (Aug YY) 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.8%).
- Norwegian Core CPI (Aug YY) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3% (Prev. 2.7%).
- Norwegian Core CPI (Aug MM) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. 0.8%).
- Swedish GDP (Jul MM) -0.8% (Prev. -0.2%).
- Italian Industrial Production (Jul MM) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -1.1%).
- Italian Industrial Production (Jul YY) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. -0.6%).
- Spanish Industrial Production (Jul YY) 2.3% (Prev. 1.1%); M/M 0.6% (exp. 0.2%).
- UK RICS House Price Balance (Aug) -28 vs Exp. -30 (Prev. -30, Rev. -29).
FX
- Snapshot: G10s are mixed against the flat USD. The Kiwi incrementally gains, whilst the JPY posts slight losses. Ultimately, price action has been sideways this morning, with focus on US PPI and the ECB later.
- DXY trades sideways and holds within a 98.70 to 98.82 range. There has been a lack of pertinent newsflow for the USD this morning, and it ultimately awaits US PPI this afternoon. There may be added focus on today’s report, with traders looking for any clues heading into the CPI report on Friday. Jobless Claims are also on the docket. Yields continue to trudge higher, as energy benchmarks remain above USD 100/bbl. However, as mentioned in yesterday’s piece, the USD has largely ignored the higher yield environment. Much of this is likely due to the recent JPY strength, and also some fiscal-related fears creeping into markets. Moreover, markets will likely avoid making firm bets on the USD ahead of CPI (tomorrow) and the Fed next week.
- EUR trades within a 1.1629 to 1.1641 range, and holds near its 200-DMA at 1.1633. EUR action will be dictated by the ECB this afternoon, where the Bank is set to deliver a 25bps hike. Aside from the decision, focus will be on the updated staff projections (inflation to be upwardly revised), and any guidance for action later in the year. ING opines that President Lagarde could use her presser to push back on some of the markets’ hawkish bets, which currently price in another hike this year. However, the likelihood is that the President will reiterate her data-dependent and non-committal approach.
- JPY has been in focus for the past couple of weeks, with USD/JPY falling c. 4.5% since the start of the month. The pair is a bit more contained this morning, despite hawkish commentary from BoJ’s Masu, who stated that he expects to continue raising rates given current accommodative conditions. USD/JPY currently holds at the mid-point of a 153.28 to 153.74 range.
Fixed Income
- Despite a slightly firmer start for Bunds and USTs, as energy took a relative breather in late-APAC/early-European trade, fixed has reverted into the red and continues to falter as energy climbs once more with Brent above USD 102/bbl.
- USTs are once again below the 107-00 mark, and to an incremental WTD base of 106-29, which is also a contract low. Amidst this, yields are marginally firmer across the curve, with the 2yr to a 4.41% peak and the 10yr to 4.86%. Aside from the energy move, upside is a function of participants digesting commentary from President Trump at the RNC where he pledged a USD 5k dividend following a strong mid-term performance; while unlikely to occur, as it would need Congressional approval, the payment would cost in excess of USD 1tln and add further pressure to already strained public finances.
- Today, for the US, the docket is dominated by PPI and weekly claims. Note, the PPI release comes ahead of Friday’s CPI, which could well define the outcome of the September Fed. Thereafter, we look to supply and given, counterintuitively, the upside seen in yields on the Treasury buyback announcement on Wednesday, the 30yr tap today may garner extra attention. For reference, the 10yr (after the buyback announcement) was very strong, with the mentioned yield move beforehand potentially providing some additional concession into it.
- Bunds also lower, by just over 20 ticks at a 121.11 base, matching the low from Wednesday. Specifics for the region light, no move to final CPI earlier. Ahead, the docket is dominated by the ECB. A hike is widely expected, but the decision may not be a unanimous one. Additionally, we look for any deviation in the statement and/or Lagarde from the data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, to a potential hawkish tilt given recent developments. On this, the 2027 & 2028 HICP forecasts will be key. However, recent moves in crude and TTF mean they are likely already somewhat stale and the expected upward revision to the forecasts is perhaps not sufficient. Something that may be elaborated on by Lagarde.
- The UK sells GBP 5bln 4.625% 2030 Treasury Gilt: b/c 3.24x, average yield 4.786%, tail 0.3bps.
- Italy sells EUR 7.75bln vs exp. EUR 6.5-7.75bln 3.00% 2029, 3.35% 2033 and 2.15% 2072 BTP.
Commodities
- WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures eke out mild gains, with prices continuing to be underpinned by the Middle Eastern situation, which shows no signs of abating. The former resides in a current USD 95.37-97.84/bbl range (vs yesterday’s 93.76-96.93/bbl range) whilst the latter trades in a USD 100.19-102.72/bbl range (vs yesterday’s 98.80-101.87/bbl parameter). Upside is somewhat capped by the delayed Private Inventory report, which showed a smaller draw than expected, with the DoE slated for today on account of Monday’s US holiday. Dutch TTF front-month has mounted EUR 80/MWh after finding an earlier base just above EUR 78/MWh, with prices continuing to be underpinned by Middle East supply woes alongside heating demand heading out of summer.
- Metals are subdued as higher energy prices keep the complex capped from a growth perspective, although participants await fresh drivers. Ahead, the ECB is unlikely to sway metals much, although US PPI could have an impact, particularly on precious metals. Spot gold resides in a narrow USD 4,388-4,435/oz range after finding support near yesterday’s USD 4,434/oz high. Note that yesterday, the bullion found support at its 100 DMA (today at 4,340/oz). 3M LME copper trades around record highs in a current USD 14,742.65- 14,870.78/t range.
- In terms of geopolitics, US President Trump said he thinks war with Iran will end immediately after the election and that they will win the war with Iran, while Iran said they are ready for a more intense war if required. Several explosions were heard yesterday in Iran’s Qeshm and Sirik, while an oil tanker was reportedly being targeted in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, mediator Pakistan warned Iran to restrain Yemen’s Houthi militants after a rise in attacks on Saudi Arabia, while Houthis attacked Saudi cities with ballistic missiles and drones, and Saudi Arabia reportedly conducted airstrikes in Yemen. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister said that there are no discussions right now regarding plans to act under the Makkah Defence Agreement, but when the time comes, they will act on the agreement.
- US Weekly Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -0.3mln (exp. -1.3mln), Gasoline -1.9mln (exp. -1.8mln), Distillate +2.0mln (exp. -0.2mln), Cushing -0.3mln.
- US Energy Secretary Wright said the current refining capacity is a bigger problem than crude oil supply.
- IEA’s Birol said their new report shows global coal demand is now set to rise by 1.2% in 2026.
- Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery (~350k BPD) has been idle since a September 6 drone attack, according to sources.
- Oman OSP for November-loading crude set at USD 119.30/bbl (prev. USD 87.84/bbl in October).
- Czech PM Babis said the EU should halt the ETS1 carbon allowances system and delay ETS2 due to the higher energy prices.
Trade/Tariffs
- US trade official said China is ramping up their purchases and is on track to fulfil farm purchases ahead of Chinese President Xi’s Washington visit, according to SCMP. It was separately reported that China bought 1mln tons of US soybeans ahead of Xi’s visit to the US, according to sources.
- The South Korean government is considering artificial intelligence investments as part of its trade agreement with the Trump administration, WSJ reported, with a deal that could potentially be worth in excess of USD 100bln.
- China’s MOFCOM said China and the US are in consultations on arrangement for a USD 30bln reciprocal tariff cut framework, Xinhua reported.
- China is extending the anti-dumping probe into pecans from both Mexico and the US.
Central Banks
- BoJ Board Member Masu said one‑ to two‑year real interest rates remain negative and that they need to keep the price trend from going above 2%, while he added that the BoJ is expected to continue raising interest rates given current accommodative financial conditions. Masu said Japan is no longer in deflation, so real interest rates should be moved out of negative territory as soon as possible, and noted that the policy rate is approaching the estimated neutral-rate range, so prices, employment and financial conditions must be monitored carefully. Furthermore, he said with Japan’s financial conditions still accommodative, the BoJ could be forced to raise rates rapidly if inflation accelerates, and that the BoJ must raise rates further and move its policy rate within the estimated neutral-rate range so it can conduct policy flexibly.
- In further comments, BoJ’s Masu said underlying inflation is gradually approaching 2%, but currently does not expect it to rise substantially above that level. When asked about a 50bps hike, Masu said the bank should proceed cautiously with hikes. On the Yen, Masu stated that they will closely assess the yen’s appreciation and rising crude oil and global food prices at next week’s policy meeting. Masu added that they have emergency market operations as a tool, but that is only saved for exceptional moves in JGB markets.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- US President Trump said they will win the war with Iran and that oil prices will go down as soon as they win, while he suggested calling the Hormuz Strait the Trump Strait. Trump said ‘may have to give them a shot at Pickaxe Mountain’ and advised Iran not to get cute as the US would have to hit them very hard.
- Top White House advisers have raised privately with US President Trump the prospect that the Iran conflict could last through the remainder of his term, according to WSJ.
- CBS reporter Jennifer Jacobs noted that multiple US military aircraft suffered damage in strikes the prior night on the Salti Air Base in Jordan.
- Several explosions were heard in Iran’s Qeshm and Sirik, with the sounds reportedly originating from the sea, according to Fars News Agency. Furthermore, IRNA cited official sources that stated areas in Sirik were hit by projectiles, although SNN reported that no points in Sirik have been targeted.
- Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesperson said the Makkah defence agreement is a defensive alliance focused on deterrence, with expansion not currently planned until its foundations are solidified. The Ministry added that there are no discussions right now regarding plans to act under the Makkah Defence Agreement but that when the time comes, they will act on the agreement.
- An Iranian lawmaker said Iran can take “special measures” in response to the IAEA’s resolution and may consider action.
Geopolitics: Russia
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said they struck Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Chornomorsk and two ships near Odessa.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces struck eight infrastructure targets supporting Russian military operations over the past 24 hours, including an oil refinery in Russia’s Yamalo-Nenets region and a seaport in Dagestan.
- Ukraine’s Air Force said attack drones targeted Zaporozhzhia and that drone groups were headed to Dnipro and Kamienske.
- Poland’s Operational Command said military aviation remains active and ground-based air defense and radar systems are on alert due to potential threats to Polish airspace from Russian drone activity in western Ukraine.
- NATO allies have reportedly caught Russian submarines training to debut a secret weapon which could disable critical undersea cables, without leaving evidence, Reuters reported.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Sep 5 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 205k, prior 206k
- 8:30 am: Aug 29 Continuing Claims, est. 1780k, prior 1779k
- 8:30 am: Aug PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0%
- 8:30 am: Aug PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
- 8:30 am: Aug PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 5.3%, prior 4.7%
- 8:30 am: Aug PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 4.6%, prior 4.2%
- 10:00 am: Aug Existing Home Sales, est. 3.98m, prior 4.06m
- 10:00 am: Jul F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.3%, prior 1.3%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets had another eventful session yesterday, with stagflation fears mounting after Brent crude oil moved above $100/bbl for the first time since July. That was primarily driven by the latest strikes between the US and Iran, and the moves saw investors price in faster rate hikes and pushed bond yields to multi-year highs. On top of that, Treasuries saw further declines after the US Treasury Department confirmed they were buying back up to $6bn of longer-dated Treasuries, which fell short of some estimates. So by the close, that meant the 10yr Treasury yield (+5.2bps) hit a post-2023 high of 4.84%, whilst the 10yr bund yield (+7.6bps) hit a post-2011 high of 3.44%. And in turn, that pressured risk assets as well, with the STOXX 600 (-1.41%) posting its worst day in the last two months, whilst the S&P 500 (-0.48%) fell for a third day running. So even though we’re just over a week into September, it’s already living up to its reputation as one of the toughest months of the year for markets.
As in recent days, the main catalyst for the oil move was the latest US-Iran strikes. So on Tuesday evening, we heard that the US had destroyed five Iranian tankers. And then as we went to press yesterday morning, Iran said they’d targeted 2 US vessels and 8 oil tankers in the Persian Gulf in retaliation. For investors, that news raised fears about a further escalation, and Bloomberg also reported that a senior Iranian official said Iran was ready for a more intense war if the US continued its attacks. So that raised doubts that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen soon, and there was a separate WSJ report overnight that White House advisers had privately raised the prospect with President Trump that the war could continue for the remainder of his term. So Brent crude (+3.36%) jumped to $101.21/bbl by the close, its highest level since May. And investors also moved to price in a more protracted period of high oil prices, with the 6-month Brent future (+1.55%) rising to its highest since early June, at $86.09/bbl.
Whilst Brent crude rising above $100/bbl took up the main headlines, the inflation concerns were exacerbated by the latest moves in natural gas prices. In particular, European natural gas futures (+4.49%) closed at their highest level since 2022, at €79.25/MWh, and they even traded above €80/MWh at one point. That was partly driven by the US-Iran news, but prices took a further leg higher after the Governor of Russia’s Yamalo-Nenets autonomous district reported that there was a fire at an industrial site. That region is a major hub for Russian gas, and Ukraine said later that its drones had struck two gas condensate plants there. So the reports added to concerns about global gas supplies in the months ahead, particularly with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked.
With oil and gas prices still rising, that led to mounting speculation about faster rate hikes from central banks. So in the US, futures raised the probability of a September hike next week from 61% on Tuesday to 63% this morning. In part, that’s down to the inflationary impulse from energy, but the extent of the moves has also led to concerns about second-round effects, whereby inflation could broaden out away from energy. Meanwhile in Europe, investors also priced in a more hawkish path for the ECB, with an additional +9.0bps of hikes priced in by the June 2027 meeting, meaning that 86bps of further hikes are now priced by then. So that feeds into the concern we wrote about on Monday (link here), where several asset classes are vulnerable to the impact of building inflationary pressures and a faster tightening cycle from central banks.
Those commodity moves put upward pressure on bond yields, but the rise then accelerated after the US Treasury Department announced they’d be purchasing up to $6bn of longer-dated Treasuries in their initial buyback operation. As a reminder, the Treasury delivered a surprise announcement in mid-August that they’d “at least double” the size of these operations, having previously planned to buy back $2bn before. But we didn’t know exactly how big that would end up being, so there was some uncertainty about how the market would react. But ultimately, the $6bn announcement saw yields rise across the curve, having fallen short of some estimates beforehand. So the 2yr yield (+3.7bps) ended the session at 4.43%, its highest since July 2024, and the 10yr yield (+5.2bps) moved up to 4.84%, the highest since October 2023. Meanwhile, the 30yr yield (+4.3bps) was up to 5.29%, still slightly beneath its recent closing peak of 5.31% on August 17.
Over in Europe, there were even bigger moves in yields, given the continent’s greater exposure to higher energy prices. As a result, yields hit new multi-year highs across countries and maturities. For instance, the 2yr German yield (+7.2bps) rose to 3.06%, its highest since June 2024, whilst the 10yr bund yield (+7.6bps) hit another post-2011 high of 3.44%. Indeed, it now isn’t far away from the 2011 Euro Crisis peak of 3.49%, and if that’s exceeded, it would take yields up to levels not seen since 2009. Meanwhile in France, the 10yr OAT yield (+10.9bps) surged to a post-2008 high of 4.34%, and Italy’s 10yr BTP yield (+11.0bps) hit a post-2023 high of 4.29%. Here in the UK, there were fresh records too, with the 10yr yield (+8.9bps) at a post-2007 high of 5.26%, whilst the 30yr yield (+6.8bps) hit a post-1998 high of 5.87%.
Looking forward, European rates will stay in the spotlight today, as we have the ECB’s latest policy decision at 13:15 London time. For the decision, they’re widely expected to deliver a 25bp rate hike today, taking their deposit rate up to 2.5%. So that would be the second rate hike of this cycle, following on from the initial hike back in June. But given that a rate hike is already priced in today, the focus will instead be on the path forward, including their latest economic forecasts. Our European economists think that there’ll be small upward revisions to the GDP projections for 2026 and 2027, along with higher headline inflation for 2027 and 2028. Otherwise, their view is that the ECB won’t give formal guidance today, and will instead repeat the “data dependent, meeting by meeting, no precommitment” mantra. For more details, see their full preview here.
Ahead of all that, equities had a rough session yesterday, as the combination of geopolitical risk, higher energy prices and higher yields all weighed on the major indices. So in the US, that meant the S&P 500 (-0.48%) fell for a third day running. The breadth of the moves was even more negative, as the S&P saw 404 decliners, the most since June. Meanwhile, energy (+1.09%) was the only sector in the index to register an advance, up to a record high. Meanwhile in Europe, there were even bigger declines given the continent’s greater energy exposure, with the STOXX 600 (-1.41%) experiencing its worst session in two months, alongside bigger losses for the DAX (-1.66%) and the CAC 40 (-1.94%).
Overnight, that weakness has continued in Asian markets, with further rises in bond yields. That includes Australia’s 10yr yield (+6.6bps), which is up to a post-2011 high of 5.27%, whilst Japan’s 10yr yield (+5.4bps) is up to 2.93%. Meanwhile for equities, the major indices have lost ground across the region, with the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.43%) and the Hang Seng (-1.29%) posting the biggest declines, alongside smaller falls for the Nikkei (-0.54%), the CSI 300 (-0.42%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.35%) and the KOSPI (-0.36%). Nevertheless, there have been signs of stabilisation overnight, with S&P 500 futures (+0.16%) pointing to a modest recovery after three consecutive declines for the index. Finally, we also heard from the BoJ’s Masu overnight, who said that they’d “continue to raise the policy interest rate”, and that “What is most vital from now on is to ensure that the underlying inflation rate does not significantly exceed 2%.” So that cemented market expectations that the Bank of Japan would deliver another hike at their meeting next week.
Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be the ECB’s policy decision, along with President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. Otherwise, US data releases include PPI inflation for August, the weekly initial jobless claims, and existing home sales for August.
1b European opening report
Crude benchmarks continue to rise beyond USD 100/bbl, USD eyes US PPI whilst EUR awaits the ECB – Newsquawk US Market Open
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 06:01 AM
- US President Trump said he thinks war with Iran will end immediately after the election and will do much more than a nuclear deal.
- US President Trump said he will give a ‘Trump dividend’ to every adult in the US of USD 5,000 if Republicans win the Midterm elections, while he added that the dividend must be spent in the US.
- US equity futures lack a clear direction as markets await US PPI.
- DXY rangebound; EUR waits for the ECB rate decision, NOK slightly softer following cooler-than-expected core CPI.
- Fixed income benchmarks continue to be at the mercy of higher energy prices (Brent +1.3%).
- Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI (Aug), Jobless Claims (Sep/05), Existing Home Sales (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), ECB Announcement, CBRT Announcement, OPEC MOMR. Speakers include ECB President Lagarde. Supply from the US. Earnings from Oracle & Adobe.
SNAPSHOT
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1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are mixed, with Italy’s and Spain’s main indices (IBEX 35/FTSE MIB +0.2%) outperforming while the FTSE 100 (-0.4%) is the slight laggard. Light in terms of newsflow this Thursday morning, with focus being on US data (PPI on Thursday, CPI on Friday) and the ECB.
- Sectors point to a mixed picture. Autos top the sector pile, followed by Travel & Leisure and Insurance. To the downside is Tech, with Basic Resources and Construction rounding out the sector laggards.
- US equity futures are currently trading on either side of the unchanged mark; the YM (+0.1%) is incrementally firmer, whilst the NQ (-0.3%) posts slight losses. Elsewhere, the WSJ reported that South Korea is nearing a USD 100bln announcement of a major energy investment in the US to support the AI buildout.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
FX
- Snapshot: G10s are mixed against the flat USD. The Kiwi incrementally gains, whilst the JPY posts slight losses. Ultimately, price action has been sideways this morning, with focus on US PPI and the ECB later.
- DXY trades sideways and holds within a 98.70 to 98.82 range. There has been a lack of pertinent newsflow for the USD this morning, and it ultimately awaits US PPI this afternoon. There may be added focus on today’s report, with traders looking for any clues heading into the CPI report on Friday. Jobless Claims are also on the docket. Yields continue to trudge higher, as energy benchmarks remain above USD 100/bbl. However, as mentioned in yesterday’s piece, the USD has largely ignored the higher yield environment. Much of this is likely due to the recent JPY strength, and also some fiscal-related fears creeping into markets. Moreover, markets will likely avoid making firm bets on the USD ahead of CPI (tomorrow) and the Fed next week.
- EUR trades within a 1.1629 to 1.1641 range, and holds near its 200-DMA at 1.1633. EUR action will be dictated by the ECB this afternoon, where the Bank is set to deliver a 25bps hike. Aside from the decision, focus will be on the updated staff projections (inflation to be upwardly revised), and any guidance for action later in the year. ING opines that President Lagarde could use her presser to push back on some of the markets’ hawkish bets, which currently price in another hike this year. However, the likelihood is that the President will reiterate her data-dependent and non-committal approach.
- JPY has been in focus for the past couple of weeks, with USD/JPY falling c. 4.5% since the start of the month. The pair is a bit more contained this morning, despite hawkish commentary from BoJ’s Masu, who stated that he expects to continue raising rates given current accommodative conditions. USD/JPY currently holds at the mid-point of a 153.28 to 153.74 range.
FIXED INCOME
- Despite a slightly firmer start for Bunds and USTs, as energy took a relative breather in late-APAC/early-European trade, fixed has reverted into the red and continues to falter as energy climbs once more with Brent above USD 102/bbl.
- USTs are once again below the 107-00 mark, and to an incremental WTD base of 106-29, which is also a contract low. Amidst this, yields are marginally firmer across the curve, with the 2yr to a 4.41% peak and the 10yr to 4.86%. Aside from the energy move, upside is a function of participants digesting commentary from President Trump at the RNC where he pledged a USD 5k dividend following a strong mid-term performance; while unlikely to occur, as it would need Congressional approval, the payment would cost in excess of USD 1tln and add further pressure to already strained public finances.
- Today, for the US, the docket is dominated by PPI and weekly claims. Note, the PPI release comes ahead of Friday’s CPI, which could well define the outcome of the September Fed. Thereafter, we look to supply and given, counterintuitively, the upside seen in yields on the Treasury buyback announcement on Wednesday, the 30yr tap today may garner extra attention. For reference, the 10yr (after the buyback announcement) was very strong, with the mentioned yield move beforehand potentially providing some additional concession into it.
- Bunds also lower, by just over 20 ticks at a 121.11 base, matching the low from Wednesday. Specifics for the region light, no move to final CPI earlier. Ahead, the docket is dominated by the ECB. A hike is widely expected, but the decision may not be a unanimous one. Additionally, we look for any deviation in the statement and/or Lagarde from the data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, to a potential hawkish tilt given recent developments. On this, the 2027 & 2028 HICP forecasts will be key. However, recent moves in crude and TTF mean they are likely already somewhat stale and the expected upward revision to the forecasts is perhaps not sufficient. Something that may be elaborated on by Lagarde.
- The UK sells GBP 5bln 4.625% 2030 Treasury Gilt: b/c 3.24x, average yield 4.786%, tail 0.3bps.
- Italy sells EUR 7.75bln vs exp. EUR 6.5-7.75bln 3.00% 2029, 3.35% 2033 and 2.15% 2072 BTP.
COMMODITIES
- WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures eke out mild gains, with prices continuing to be underpinned by the Middle Eastern situation, which shows no signs of abating. The former resides in a current USD 95.37-97.84/bbl range (vs yesterday’s 93.76-96.93/bbl range) whilst the latter trades in a USD 100.19-102.72/bbl range (vs yesterday’s 98.80-101.87/bbl parameter). Upside is somewhat capped by the delayed Private Inventory report, which showed a smaller draw than expected, with the DoE slated for today on account of Monday’s US holiday. Dutch TTF front-month has mounted EUR 80/MWh after finding an earlier base just above EUR 78/MWh, with prices continuing to be underpinned by Middle East supply woes alongside heating demand heading out of summer.
- Metals are subdued as higher energy prices keep the complex capped from a growth perspective, although participants await fresh drivers. Ahead, the ECB is unlikely to sway metals much, although US PPI could have an impact, particularly on precious metals. Spot gold resides in a narrow USD 4,388-4,435/oz range after finding support near yesterday’s USD 4,434/oz high. Note that yesterday, the bullion found support at its 100 DMA (today at 4,340/oz). 3M LME copper trades around record highs in a current USD 14,742.65- 14,870.78/t range.
- In terms of geopolitics, US President Trump said he thinks war with Iran will end immediately after the election and that they will win the war with Iran, while Iran said they are ready for a more intense war if required. Several explosions were heard yesterday in Iran’s Qeshm and Sirik, while an oil tanker was reportedly being targeted in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, mediator Pakistan warned Iran to restrain Yemen’s Houthi militants after a rise in attacks on Saudi Arabia, while Houthis attacked Saudi cities with ballistic missiles and drones, and Saudi Arabia reportedly conducted airstrikes in Yemen. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister said that there are no discussions right now regarding plans to act under the Makkah Defence Agreement, but when the time comes, they will act on the agreement.
- US Weekly Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -0.3mln (exp. -1.3mln), Gasoline -1.9mln (exp. -1.8mln), Distillate +2.0mln (exp. -0.2mln), Cushing -0.3mln.
- US Energy Secretary Wright said the current refining capacity is a bigger problem than crude oil supply.
- IEA’s Birol said their new report shows global coal demand is now set to rise by 1.2% in 2026.
- Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery (~350k BPD) has been idle since a September 6 drone attack, according to sources.
- Oman OSP for November-loading crude set at USD 119.30/bbl (prev. USD 87.84/bbl in October).
- Czech PM Babis said the EU should halt the ETS1 carbon allowances system and delay ETS2 due to the higher energy prices.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- US trade official said China is ramping up their purchases and is on track to fulfil farm purchases ahead of Chinese President Xi’s Washington visit, according to SCMP. It was separately reported that China bought 1mln tons of US soybeans ahead of Xi’s visit to the US, according to sources.
- The South Korean government is considering artificial intelligence investments as part of its trade agreement with the Trump administration, WSJ reported, with a deal that could potentially be worth in excess of USD 100bln.
- China’s MOFCOM said China and the US are in consultations on arrangement for a USD 30bln reciprocal tariff cut framework, Xinhua reported.
- China is extending the anti-dumping probe into pecans from both Mexico and the US.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- German HICP Final (Aug MM) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.9%).
- German HICP Final (Aug YY) 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.8%).
- Norwegian Core CPI (Aug YY) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3% (Prev. 2.7%).
- Norwegian Core CPI (Aug MM) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. 0.8%).
- Swedish GDP (Jul MM) -0.8% (Prev. -0.2%).
- Italian Industrial Production (Jul MM) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -1.1%).
- Italian Industrial Production (Jul YY) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.6% (Prev. -0.6%).
- Spanish Industrial Production (Jul YY) 2.3% (Prev. 1.1%); M/M 0.6% (exp. 0.2%).
- UK RICS House Price Balance (Aug) -28 vs Exp. -30 (Prev. -30, Rev. -29).
CENTRAL BANKS
- BoJ Board Member Masu said one‑ to two‑year real interest rates remain negative and that they need to keep the price trend from going above 2%, while he added that the BoJ is expected to continue raising interest rates given current accommodative financial conditions. Masu said Japan is no longer in deflation, so real interest rates should be moved out of negative territory as soon as possible, and noted that the policy rate is approaching the estimated neutral-rate range, so prices, employment and financial conditions must be monitored carefully. Furthermore, he said with Japan’s financial conditions still accommodative, the BoJ could be forced to raise rates rapidly if inflation accelerates, and that the BoJ must raise rates further and move its policy rate within the estimated neutral-rate range so it can conduct policy flexibly.
- In further comments, BoJ’s Masu said underlying inflation is gradually approaching 2%, but currently does not expect it to rise substantially above that level. When asked about a 50bps hike, Masu said the bank should proceed cautiously with hikes. On the Yen, Masu stated that they will closely assess the yen’s appreciation and rising crude oil and global food prices at next week’s policy meeting. Masu added that they have emergency market operations as a tool, but that is only saved for exceptional moves in JGB markets.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump said he will give a ‘Trump dividend’ to every adult in the US of USD 5,000 if Republicans win the Midterm elections, while he added that the dividend must be spent in the US.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent touted tax cuts, job increases, trade rebalance and Trump accounts during his speech at the RNC Midterm Convention.
- BofA Total Card Spending (w/e 5th Sept) +7.8% Y/Y (prev. +3.7% W/W). BofA said that the surge in spending growth was likely due to base effects from the shift in Labour Day timing and a rebound in gas prices.
- A US AI safety bill could be introduced next week, Semafor reported citing sources.
- A US Republican-led Senate subcommittee is investigating OpenAI’s handling of the Hugging Face breach in July, Axios reported.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump said they will win the war with Iran and that oil prices will go down as soon as they win, while he suggested calling the Hormuz Strait the Trump Strait. Trump said ‘may have to give them a shot at Pickaxe Mountain’ and advised Iran not to get cute as the US would have to hit them very hard.
- Top White House advisers have raised privately with US President Trump the prospect that the Iran conflict could last through the remainder of his term, according to WSJ.
- CBS reporter Jennifer Jacobs noted that multiple US military aircraft suffered damage in strikes the prior night on the Salti Air Base in Jordan.
- Several explosions were heard in Iran’s Qeshm and Sirik, with the sounds reportedly originating from the sea, according to Fars News Agency. Furthermore, IRNA cited official sources that stated areas in Sirik were hit by projectiles, although SNN reported that no points in Sirik have been targeted.
- Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesperson said the Makkah defence agreement is a defensive alliance focused on deterrence, with expansion not currently planned until its foundations are solidified. The Ministry added that there are no discussions right now regarding plans to act under the Makkah Defence Agreement but that when the time comes, they will act on the agreement.
- An Iranian lawmaker said Iran can take “special measures” in response to the IAEA’s resolution and may consider action.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said they struck Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Chornomorsk and two ships near Odessa.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces struck eight infrastructure targets supporting Russian military operations over the past 24 hours, including an oil refinery in Russia’s Yamalo-Nenets region and a seaport in Dagestan.
- Ukraine’s Air Force said attack drones targeted Zaporozhzhia and that drone groups were headed to Dnipro and Kamienske.
- Poland’s Operational Command said military aviation remains active and ground-based air defense and radar systems are on alert due to potential threats to Polish airspace from Russian drone activity in western Ukraine.
- NATO allies have reportedly caught Russian submarines training to debut a secret weapon which could disable critical undersea cables, without leaving evidence, Reuters reported.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin trades in a narrow USD 77.9k-78.52k range as it stabilises following Wednesday’s afternoon selloff.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mostly lower following the losses stateside, where all major indices declined as yields and oil prices climbed, with Brent crude topping USD 100/bbl for the first time since July.
- ASX 200 underperformed amid broad-based weakness across sectors and with the downside led by materials, mining, resources, and tech.
- Nikkei 225 was pressured alongside a higher yield environment and ongoing rate hike expectations, while BoJ board member Masu also stuck to the hawkish hymn sheet.
- KOSPI declined at the open but was off today’s worst levels as SK Hynix rebounded from intraday lows.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the subdued mood across the region in the absence of bullish drivers and after the PBoC conducted open market operations, but at a paltry amount of CNY 3bln.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC’s Lu Lei said the Bank will refine the RRR framework and conduct open-market operations more flexibly and precisely.
- Japanese MOF Official Sato said the government is not considering buying back JGBs at this point.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations (Sep) 4.9% (Prev. 4.9%).
1c) Asian opening report
Trump suggests that the war will end immediately after the election; EUR awaits the ECB – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 01:17 AM
- US President Trump said he thinks war with Iran will end immediately after the election and will do much more than a nuclear deal.
- US President Trump said he will give a ‘Trump dividend’ to every adult in the US of USD 5,000 if Republicans win the Midterm elections, while he added that the dividend must be spent in the US.
- Crude futures took a breather after extending their gains yesterday alongside the current backdrop of escalating US/Iran and Saudi/Yemen tensions, which lifted Brent crude north of the USD 100/bbl level.
- 10yr UST futures remained subdued after yields rose alongside higher oil prices and following the Treasury’s long-end buyback announcement of a maximum of USD 6bln of 10yr-20yr nominal coupons on Thursday.
- APAC stocks were mostly lower following the losses stateside; European equity futures indicate a flat/firmer cash market open.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Final CPI (Aug), Norwegian CPI (Aug), Swedish GDP (Jul), US PPI (Aug), Jobless Claims (Sep/05), Existing Home Sales (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), ECB Announcement, CBRT Announcement, OPEC MOMR. Speakers include US President Trump and ECB President Lagarde. Supply from the UK, Italy, and the US. Earnings from Oracle & Adobe.
SNAPSHOT
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
LOOKING AHEAD
- Highlights include German Final CPI (Aug), Norwegian CPI (Aug), Swedish GDP (Jul), US PPI (Aug), Jobless Claims (Sep/05), Existing Home Sales (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), ECB Announcement, CBRT Announcement, OPEC MOMR. Speakers include US President Trump and ECB President Lagarde. Supply from the UK, Italy, and the US. Earnings from Oracle & Adobe.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump said he thinks war with Iran will end immediately after the election and doing much more than a nuclear deal, while he stated there is going to be a lot more on the table that was not on the table 3 months ago. Trump stated that he is not looking for negotiations to restart; it could happen, but it is not something they are looking at, and they are not seeking a deal.
- US President Trump said they will win the war with Iran and that oil prices will go down as soon as they win, while he suggested calling the Hormuz Strait the Trump Strait. Trump said ‘may have to give them a shot at Pickaxe Mountain’ and advised Iran not to get cute as the US would have to hit them very hard.
- Several explosions were heard in Iran’s Qeshm and Sirik, with the sounds reportedly originating from the sea, according to Fars News Agency. Furthermore, IRNA cited official sources that stated areas in Sirik were hit by projectiles, although SNN reported that no points in Sirik have been targeted.
- An explosion was heard from the sea south of Jask, and it was reported that an oil tanker was being targeted in the Strait of Hormuz. However, a US official told NewsNation that there were no attacks being carried out by US forces in Iran near the Strait of Hormuz at that time.
- Iran official said they are ready for a more intense war if required and will escalate strikes in response to US attacks.
- IAEA’s 35-nation Board of Governors passed a resolution reporting Iran to the UN Security Council for breaching its non-proliferation obligations.
- Israeli army artillery bombarded the northern parts of the village of Taranja near the outskirts of Quneitra.
- Israeli artillery and tank fire was reported in eastern Gaza City, according to Al-Mayadeen.
- Pakistani Ambassador said they believe that a better understanding will soon be achieved between the US and Iran, according to ISNA.
- Pakistan has warned Iran to restrain Yemen’s Houthi militants after a rise in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, conveying the message on behalf of Riyadh, according to Reuters citing sources.
- Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said Houthis attacked the Saudi cities of Khamis Mushait, Abha and Jazan with ballistic missiles and drones, while explosions were also reported at the King Fahd Airbase.
- Saudi Arabia reportedly conducted airstrikes near the Al-Nari mountains in Yemen.
- Saudi-affiliated militias were reported to withdraw from Yemen’s Hodeidah province, according to IRNA citing sources.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were lower again as higher oil prices and Treasury yields weighed on sentiment, with the Russell 2000 the laggard and the equal-weight S&P declined by around 1%. Nearly all sectors declined, with Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate the underperformers, while Energy was the only industry to close higher amid a roughly USD 3/bbl rise in WTI as prices were buoyed by geopolitical escalation following the recent tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran, which helped Brent reclaim USD 100/bbl.
- SPX -0.45% at 7,639, NDX -0.29% at 29,422, DJI -0.77% at 52,381, RUT -1.28% at 2,922.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US trade official said China is ramping up their purchases and is on track to fulfil farm purchases ahead of Chinese President Xi’s Washington visit, according to SCMP. It was separately reported that China bought 1mln tons of US soybeans ahead of Xi’s visit to the US, according to sources.
- US Senator Slotkin said they are hearing rumours that President Trump is planning to allow Chinese cars to be sold in the US as part of a larger deal.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump said he will give a ‘Trump dividend’ to every adult in the US of USD 5,000 if Republicans win the Midterm elections, while he added that the dividend must be spent in the US.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent touted tax cuts, job increases, trade rebalance and Trump accounts during his speech at the RNC Midterm Convention.
- US Agriculture Secretary Rollins said some food costs have come down in the last two years.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mostly lower following the losses stateside, where all major indices declined as yields and oil prices climbed, with Brent crude topping USD 100/bbl for the first time since July.
- ASX 200 underperformed amid broad-based weakness across sectors and with the downside led by materials, mining, resources, and tech.
- Nikkei 225 was pressured alongside a higher yield environment and ongoing rate hike expectations, while BoJ board member Masu also stuck to the hawkish hymn sheet.
- KOSPI declined at the open but was off today’s worst levels as SK Hynix rebounded from intraday lows.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the subdued mood across the region in the absence of bullish drivers and after the PBoC conducted open market operations, but at a paltry amount of CNY 3bln.
- US equity futures were range-bound ahead of the incoming inflation metrics and with little reaction to President Trump’s pledge to give US adults a ‘Trump dividend’ of USD 5,000 if the GOP wins the Midterms.
- European equity futures indicate a flat/firmer cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.6% on Wednesday.
FX
- DXY traded little changed following the recent choppy performance and as catalysts for the dollar remained sparse, while there was little reaction across asset classes to US President Trump’s speech at the RNC Midterm Convention, where he pledged a USD 5,000 ‘Trump dividend’ to all adults in the US if Republicans win the Midterms. The attention now turns to incoming inflation metrics with US PPI and CPI scheduled for Thursday and Friday, respectively.
- EUR/USD lacked direction with price action confined within a tight range at the 1.1600 handle amid very few fresh catalysts for the bloc and with the ECB expected to raise rates at its meeting today.
- GBP/USD eked slight gains in range-bound trade after oscillating throughout the week in the absence of pertinent drivers and amid a quiet calendar.
- USD/JPY held on to recent losses amid rate hike expectations and comments from officials, including hawkish rhetoric from BoJ’s Masu, who said the BoJ is expected to continue hiking rates given current accommodative conditions.
- Antipodeans rebounded from the prior day’s lows, but with upside capped in the absence of tier-1 data.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7766 vs Exp. 6.7074 (prev. 6.7769).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures remained subdued after yields rose alongside higher oil prices and following the Treasury’s long-end buyback announcement of a maximum of USD 6bln of 10yr-20yr nominal coupons on Thursday, which was above its previous guidance for “at least” USD 4bln, but disappointed as there were some expectations of as high as USD 10bln.
- Bund futures lingered around the prior day’s trough heading into a widely expected ECB rate hike.
- 10yr JGB futures followed suit to the declines in global peers, with prices not helped by the looming enhanced-liquidity auction and hawkish comments from BoJ’s Masu, who called for the BoJ to raise rates further and move its policy rate within the estimated neutral-rate range so it can conduct policy flexibly.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures took a breather after extending their gains yesterday alongside the current backdrop of escalating US/Iran and Saudi/Yemen tensions, which lifted Brent crude north of the USD 100/bbl level.
- US Weekly Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -0.3mln (exp. -1.3mln), Gasoline -1.9mln (exp. -1.8mln), Distillate +2.0mln (exp. -0.2mln), Cushing -0.3mln
- US President Trump said after the election, oil prices will tumble lower, and gasoline prices will take a bit longer, but they will get gasoline below USD 2.
- US Energy Secretary Wright said the current refining capacity is a bigger problem than oil supply.
- Data showed Strait of Hormuz commodity vessel traffic fell to 7 on Wednesday vs. 10-day average of around 14.
- Russian Finance Minister Siluanov said reducing the cutoff price to USD 50/bbl will ensure budget stability and that this is the baseline option, while others are not being considered.
- Spot gold traded marginally higher but with upside capped following recent two-way price action around the USD 4,400/oz level and with the attention turning to incoming inflation metrics.
- Copper futures were contained overnight amid the subdued risk appetite and as LME futures stalled after recently extending to fresh record levels.
- LME said a steel futures contract linked to Shanghai prices will launch on October 27th.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin marginally gained in indecisive trade, and after finding support around the USD 78,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoJ Board Member Masu said one‑ to two‑year real interest rates remain negative and that they need to keep the price trend from going above 2%, while he added that the BoJ is expected to continue raising interest rates given current accommodative financial conditions. Masu said Japan is no longer in deflation, so real interest rates should be moved out of negative territory as soon as possible, and noted that the policy rate is approaching the estimated neutral-rate range, so prices, employment and financial conditions must be monitored carefully. Furthermore, he said with Japan’s financial conditions still accommodative, the BoJ could be forced to raise rates rapidly if inflation accelerates, and that the BoJ must raise rates further and move its policy rate within the estimated neutral-rate range so it can conduct policy flexibly.
- Chinese AI chipmakers have reportedly lifted prices amidst higher memory prices, sources suggest; the likes of Huawei have lifted prices by c. 20-50% more than quotes given a couple of months.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukraine’s Air Force said attack drones targeted Zaporozhzhia and that drone groups were headed to Dnipro and Kamienske.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky’s aeroplane was nearly hit by an attack drone as it took off from Moldova on Tuesday, according to FT.
- US President Trump said he had a great conversation with Russian President Putin and that Putin wants to make a deal, while he added that a bilateral meeting could happen.
- White House denied a report by FT that CIA director Ratcliffe was preparing to take a bigger role in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and that it was considering paring back the involvement of Special Envoys Witkoff and Kushner.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- EU social media ban is to test fragile truce with US President Trump as the proposal to restrict children’s access to platforms risks stoking tensions with the US on tech regulation, according to FT.
DATA RECAP
- UK RICS House Price Balance (Aug) -28 vs Exp. -30 (Prev. -30, Rev. -29)
2.NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA/
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA
.JAPAN
JAPAN/USA
3. CHINA/
CHINA/USA
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
ECB
HIKES RATES TO 2.5%/RAISES INFLATION OUTLOOK//EURO DROPS
EUR Drops As ECB Hikes Rates (As Expected); Raises Inflation Outlook, Sees Downside Growth Risks
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 08:27 AM
The European Central Bank increased interest rates for the second time since the Iran war broke out in February, responding to signs inflation is set to stay well above 2%.
The deposit rate was lifted by a quarter-point to 2.5% on Thursday, as predicted by almost all economists in a Bloomberg survey.
“The conflict in the Middle East continues to generate inflation pressures, and inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period,” it said in a statement.
“The outlook remains highly uncertain, with risks to the upside for inflation and to the downside for economic growth.”
GUIDANCE:
As widely expected, the Governing Council left his language on the future rate path unchanged, repeating the mantra of being “well-positioned” and following a “data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach.”
That actually leaves all options open for the coming months, and it seems likely that Lagarde will try to do the same later.
INFLATION
- Inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period.
The ECB raised its inflation outlook for the next two years…
- *ECB SEES 2027 INFLATION AT 2.5%%; PRIOR FORECAST 2.3%
- *ECB SEES 2028 INFLATION AT 2.1%; PRIOR FORECAST 2%
- *ECB SEES 2027 INFLATION EX-FOOD/ENERGY AT 2.6%% VS 2.5%
Despite more encouraging signals, though, as underlying inflation and a closely watched gauge of services prices retreated. Wage pressures also eased.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
- The outlook remains highly uncertain, with risks to the upside for inflation and to the downside for economic growth.
Thursday’s move puts euro-area policymakers further ahead of their peers in reacting to the energy-price surge that’s produced the fastest inflation in almost three years.
Traders see the ECB doing more, pricing two further hikes by mid-2027.
That contrasts with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which are yet to tighten monetary policy over the fighting in the Middle East and may refrain again next week.
Interestingly, despite the relative hawkishness, the EUR is fading this news…
Patrick Ernst, a strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank:
“The ECB moved as anticipated, but what accompanied that rate decision matters more. In keeping the door open to further tightening, policymakers made clear that an energy-led inflation risk is still very much in play. One hike is not a ceiling. The odds of another before year-end have risen.”
President Christine Lagarde, who continues to be linked with an early departure from her role, will face journalists at 14:45 p.m. in Berlin.
GERMANY
Migrants Responsible For 47% Of All Violent Crime In German State Of Bavaria
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 05:00 AM
Non-German suspects account for nearly half of all violent crime in the German state of Bavaria, with the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party now calling for remigration for all criminal migrant suspects. The Interior Ministry data was released in response to a request from AfD state parliament member Martin Böhm. It revealed that police recorded 20,367 suspects in violent offenses in 2025 and about 47 percent did not have German citizenship.
Remarkably, foreigners are responsible for this massive amount of serious crime despite making up only 15.5 percent of Bavaria’s population.
Syrians were the largest group of non-German suspects, at 1,284, followed by Turks with 799, Ukrainians with 797, Afghans with 784, Romanians with 687, Iraqis with 428, Bulgarians with 350, Poles with 328, Kosovars with 319, and Italians with 250.
A different ranking appears when the figures are adjusted for population. The suspect burden figure, or TVBZ, measures how many suspects police identified per 100,000 people in a group over one year.
Ukrainians had the highest TVBZ, at 555. Turks followed at 445 and Romanians at 435. The figure for German citizens was 106. That means Ukrainians, for instance, are more than five times more likely to commit a violent crime than Germans.
The government did not calculate a TVBZ for other nationalities because each had fewer than 100,000 residents.
“For smaller population groups, the crime rate would have to be mathematically extrapolated to 100,000 people,” the state government wrote.
“However, since the relationship between population size and crime burden is not strictly linear, an error would occur in the TVBZ calculation, which is greater the smaller the population group. For this reason, the TVBZ are only calculated for non-German citizens who have a population share of over 100,000 people.”
When it comes to murder and manslaughter, there were 411 suspects in Bavaria and 177 were non-Germans, equaling 43.1 percent of all murder and manslaughter suspects. The TVBZ for Germans was 87, while Turks had a TVBZ of 478 and Ukrainians with a TVBZ of 499.
In cases of rape, sexual assault and sexual assault in particularly serious cases, including those resulting in death, police registered 1,288 suspects in Bavaria. Of those, 551 were foreigners, equaling 42.8 percent.
It must also be noted that for all German suspects counted in this data, the Interior Ministry does not release if they have a foreign background.
Böhm said the figures show that violent crime in Bavaria is an imported problem to a “far too high” extent.
“No amount of sugarcoating or trivialization will help. The numbers speak for themselves,” he told Junge Freiheit, which exclusively received the figures.
“The AfD therefore demands: decisive action by the judiciary, an end to mass naturalizations and rigorous remigration of foreign violent criminals,” Böhm said.
END
GERMANY
After Huge Election Defeat, Top CDU Politician Demands First Steps Towards AfD Ban
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 02:00 AM
After a historic democratic victory for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt, a top Christian Democrat (CDU) politician, Hendrik Wüst, is now calling for the first concrete steps towards a possible ban of the AfD party.
“I said something today, but I don’t think any CDU member has said it publicly yet: That I am in favor of appointing this working group, which will then do this work,” said North Rhine-Westphalia’s Minister-President Wüst.
Wüst has already repeatedly referred to the AfD as a “Nazi party.” North Rhine-Westphalia itself faces a state election in April 2027.
Wüst made the remarks on Monday evening in Berlin to a mostly left-leaning audience during a talk hosted by “transformation researcher” Maja Göpel. He presented this working group as a prerequisite before any application to Germany’s top court, the Federal Constitutional Court, for an outright ban of the AfD.
While the AfD nearly obtained an absolute majority with 43.8 percent in the Saxony-Anhalt election, Wüst’s own party saw a historic crash, with its support cut in half to 17.2 percent. The results have reportedly sent CDU leadership, along with Chancellor Friedrich Merz, into a potential existential crisis.
Wüst apparently does not like that voters are moving away from his party and now wants this working group to examine the AfD in preparation for a potential ban, but he says other outcomes are possible besides a ban.
Beyond his position as minister-president, there is also speculation that Wüst himself is a strong front-runner to replace Merz should he step down. Merz himself has rejected a ban of the AfD, saying that it “smacks too much of the elimination of political rivals.”
Besides the Bundestag and the federal government, the Bundesrat, of which Wüst is a member as head of a state government, can also launch such proceedings. However, the final decision on a ban is ultimately made by the Constitutional Court.
Wüst framed the outcome of that review as a constitutional duty. If the working group’s examination reveals that the AfD could be banned, that would be a “command to protect this constitution.”
As reported by Die Welt, Wüst added:
“If, after an examination, the following is on the table: This party can be banned, then this ban procedure must be initiated. For me, that’s relatively clear. But step by step.”
Earlier the same day, at a campaign event in Berlin, he had already warned against underestimating the AfD after its result in Saxony-Anhalt.
“We must not be naive and believe that the AfD would somehow change course. They have a plan with this country, and it’s not a good plan,” he said.
Wüst was careful to say that it is not a foregone conclusion that such a working group would recommend a ban.
Wüst said the working group should “not operate with the politically predetermined goal” but rather “examine this party and the possible legal consequences.”
“That could be a ban, that could also be something else,” said the CDU politician.
END
GERMANY
After AfD Victory In Saxony-Anhalt, Merz And Weidel Trade Blows During Intense Debate In Bundestag
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 10:00 AM
Three days after the Alternative for Germany’s (AfD) landslide in Saxony-Anhalt, the Bundestag’s general budget debate turned into a verbal battle between AfD co-chair Alice Weidel and Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with the two battling it out over mass immigration, democracy, crime, Ukraine, and the future of Germany.
Heckling filled the chamber. Bundestag President Julia Klöckner repeatedly intervened. The exchange was the first direct parliamentary clash between the two leaders since Sunday’s vote, in which the AfD took 43.8 percent and the CDU collapsed to 17.2 percent.
Weidel opened the debate and treated the election results as a verdict on the ruling federal government coalition led by Merz. “The voters in Saxony-Anhalt have made it abundantly clear to you, in the language of the democratic sovereign: the Black-Red coalition is over,” she said. Citizens wanted “a change of policy,” she added, “and they do not want more of the same.”
Addressing Merz directly, she said he had failed to hear that message.
“That is not especially relevant, because your time has run out anyway. Citizens want a change of policy, and they will get it,” she said.
She turned next to the draft federal budget. Weidel called it a “declaration of surrender” and accused Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil of “unserious budget management.”
“Despite record tax revenues, you are incapable of managing the public’s money wisely. Why? Because you are unwilling to free yourselves from the shackles of green ideology, left-wing mass migration, and socialist redistribution.”
She said the CDU-SPD government planned more than €1 trillion in new borrowing over its term, a figure she described as unprecedented in the Federal Republic. The result, she argued, would destroy future room for maneuver and leave “scorched earth.”
“You are driving Germany into national bankruptcy in record time,” she said.
Weidel also continued to slam Merz on mass migration, a sore spot for the ruling government.
“You declare the migration crisis to be over. Yet, every year, a six-figure number of migrants enters the country through the back door of asylum, plus another major city through family reunification – most of them from Muslim tribal cultures,” she stated, adding: “More than a million refugees live whose asylum application has been rejected more than once. What are these people actually still doing in this country? They should be deported!”
Weidel accused the coalition of declaring the crisis over while still admitting large numbers of people through asylum procedures and family reunification. She claimed more than a million people whose asylum claims had already been rejected remained in the country and should be deported. Ordinary workers, she said, were paying the price.
“Because [Germans] have to deal daily with the consequences of mass migration, with the hatred of foreign groups toward their own, with hatred of Christians, with hatred of Germans, with hatred of Germany, and you are even providing financial support to these people. This must finally come to an end!”
Energy policy drew the sharpest interjections from the government benches. Weidel called the energy transition “the greatest millstone dragging our economy into the abyss” and “lost, burned money.” Germany, she said, was facing a possible winter gas shortage after the destruction of Nord Stream 2 while still sending billions to Ukraine. She demanded renewed Russian gas deliveries, a return to nuclear power, and peace talks.
“While the United States is making another attempt to end the murderous Ukraine war, you are stepping up the war propaganda and the confrontation with Russia,” she told the chancellor. When SPD deputies laughed, she snapped: “Do you find that funny? Voters out there can see that the SPD finds deindustrialization funny. So stop laughing.”
Merz responds
Merz came out swinging against Weidel, conceding the Saxony-Anhalt result was “remarkable,” but said the AfD had missed its actual goal: an absolute majority of seats.
“Fifty-six percent of voters in Saxony-Anhalt did not vote for you,” he said. “And you will not achieve that anywhere in Germany with this policy.” He accused Weidel of having pushed lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund, within hours of the polls closing, to seek a governing majority after having promised before the election to govern only with an absolute majority.
“You are, and you will remain, Ms. Weidel, a destructive force,” he accused.
The sharpest attack from Merz concerned remigration. He said the concept is “nothing other than a synonym for ethnic cleansing based on origin and skin color.”
If that program were carried out, he claimed, skilled trades, nursing homes, hospitals, and restaurants would cease to function, because one in six workers in the crafts already holds a foreign passport and millions of people with a migration background keep essential services running. The coalition, he said, agreed on deporting people without a right to stay, but distinguished between those who work and contribute and those who must leave. AfD deputies erupted. Several shouted that the claim was false.
On Ukraine, Merz accused the AfD of reversing perpetrator and victim. Neither NATO, the European Union nor Germany had threatened Russia, he said.
“The only thing that truly threatens Russia and Putin is the radiance of democracy.” The AfD, he added, still stood with Moscow. “Right there runs the deep rift between you and us, in foreign policy, in European policy, in social policy and in peace policy,” he said.
He also charged that Weidel had said nothing about a failed drone incident at Leipzig Airport, a hacking attack on Berlin infrastructure, or this year’s fires and weather extremes.
“Not a word from you, Ms. Weidel, about what has been going on in this country this year, he accused her.
At one point in Merz’s speech, Klöckner told the AfD that heckling is part of parliamentary life, “but it is not part of constantly interrupting a speaker. You also have to accept that there are other opinions.”
When the noise continued, she warned one deputy: “We are not on the football pitch here right now. Save this for the weekend.” Later she threatened MPs with expulsion. Merz thanked her and said the interruptions themselves showed the AfD’s “contempt for the German Bundestag,” adding that “listening is not your strong suit.”
With the battle brewing over who controls Saxony-Anhalt still to be decided, and with Merz’s CDU crashing below 20 percent in the latest poll, political tensions are set to rise in the coming month.
END
5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/USA/VS IRAN/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Iran State Media Says ‘Enemy’ Attacks On Southern Iran Overnight
Wednesday, Sep 09, 2026 – 08:45 PM
Summary
- Iran state media: ‘Enemy’ attacks on southern Iran overnight
- Trump: “This war will end immediately after our election.“
- Iran escalates with “20 for 2″ response doctrine: 20 targets for every 2-3 targets struck.
- Iran sets heightened conditions for war’s end: Tehran calls for an end to attacks, Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, an end to the Yemen blockade, and release of $24B in frozen assets.
- Shipping attacked: A tanker carrying 2M barrels of Iraqi oil was hit by a drone in Iraqi waters.
- Damage assessment in wake of overnight assaults: CENTCOM denies US warships were hit while saying 10 Iranian tankers have been destroyed. Regional reports say Jordan bases hit hard.
- Oil tops $100: Brent crude surpassed $100/barrel as markets see prolonged Gulf disruptions and little hope for a diplomatic off-ramp.
* * *
Iran says ‘Enemy’ Attacks on Southern Iran
Unconfirmed reports out of the Gulf region have been flying all evening about explosions heard in and around the Strait of Hormuz and southern Iran.
Iran state media is overnight reporting that ‘enemy’ projectiles hit Sirik areas, in mainland southern Iran. The city has been hit before during the height of prior US airstrikes. Al Jazeera summarizes of the emerging state reports:
- Projectiles have hit several areas in Iran’s Sirik, with multiple explosions heard across the coastal region, including Minab County and Qeshm Island, Iranian state media report.
Circumstances are still murky and ultimately unconfirmed, also as to the cause of the explosions.
END
IRAN
Trump Warns ‘Activity’ Seen At Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain Nuclear Site: ‘Don’t Get Cute’
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 02:20 PM
This week there’s been more mainstream reporting and chatter centered on Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain. The nuclear development site has been of special interest and focus to the Trump administration due to how immensely fortified it is, meaning the Iranians can conduct uranium enrichment activities deep under the mountain if they so desire.
The US and IAEA are essentially operating blind on this, and that’s exactly how the Iranians want it of course. A Thursday Bloomberg report begins: “The United Nations atomic watchdog said it’s observed construction activity at Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain, a heavily-fortified site suspected of housing nuclear-related activities.”
It should be noted that Tehran has long complained that IAEA officials have leaked sensitive information to Israeli spies and leaders. The Iranians see it as a compromised organization.
Bloomberg continues, also referencing its own prior reporting: “The International Atomic Energy Agency has yet to inspect inside the tunnel complex but remote imagery indicates new movement at the site just south of Tehran’s main uranium-enrichment plant, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said Thursday in an interview with Bloomberg Television.”
President Trump has on at least two occasions drawn attention to the new reporting this week.
“We notice there’s a little activity at Pickaxe. I would advise Iran not to get cute because we will have to hit them very hard,” Trump said in a speech at Wednesday night’s midterm Republican convention.
Before this, Trump has threatened major attack on the mountain, though some pundits and analysts have speculated that it would take nothing less than dropping a tactical nuke in order to destroy or at least severely damage the fortification.
Some crazy hawks appear to lately be calling for just such a nuclear escalation from Washington, amid persisting frustration over fierce Iranian resistance and lack of ‘options’ the Trump administration has left itself with, also with negotiations at this point appearing totally abandoned.
Trump’s Wednesday warning to Tehran was coupled with this surprising statement about the war extending to after the November midterm elections: “I think the war will end immediately after the election because they can’t hold out any longer,” the president told reporters.
He has continued to warn – amid growing public pushback over an unpopular extended war – that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. However even the CIA has long assessed that there’s no clear or high-level evidence that Tehran is actually bent on achieving weapons status. But if anything, the war itself may have pushed the country in the direction of getting a nuke.
END
SAUDI ARABIA //HOUTHIS
Hyped Mecca Joint Defense Pact Is MIA After Houthis Targeted Four Saudi Cities
Wednesday, Sep 09, 2026 – 05:20 PM
Saudi Arabia got pummeled by cross-border Houthi ballistic missiles and drones on Tuesday, where a reported four Saudi cities were targeted.
…So what about those much hyped Mecca Defense accords that were just signed last month? The pact between Riyadh, Islamabad, and Ankara has been likened to NATO Article 5, where an attack on one is an ‘attack on all’. These countries’ own officials have in many cases advanced this interpretation.
As the Saudi-Yemen war heats up again, Pakistan is threatening just such a triggering of the Mecca Defense Pact, but so far this has stopped at mere words.
Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif threatened in Wednesday remarks that the Ansarallah attacks “could trigger” the defense agreement.
“Under the trilateral agreement, any aggression against any of the three [countries] is regarded as an aggression against all. There is no ambiguity about that,” the Pakistani minister told Geo News.
He underscored that the ongoing Houthi retaliations “could trigger the pact” between the three regional nations, after over 70 people were wounded on the Saudi side, which heavily targeted energy infrastructure, and resulted in flight stoppages at major Saudi flight hubs.
Another key aspect to the new pact is that it further formalizes Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella for Saudi Arabia, which lacks atomic weapons. Turkey does not have its own nukes either, but plays host to US nuclear weapons as part of NATO. Turkey maintains the second-largest military within the NATO alliance, behind the United States.
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia already had a bilateral defense pact before the Mecca agreement, which has lately seen Islamabad deploy 8,000 troops, a squadron of fighter jets, and an air defense system to Saudi Arabia.
But the Houthis are warning of more attacks to come, also as the ‘siege for siege’ policy is still on against the kingdom, aimed at curtailing its vital energy exports.
The Houthis have newly released footage of an operation showing Saudi military equipment en route to Riyadh’s proxies being Yemen, coming under heavy fire and being blown up.
The Iran-aligned Yemeni group is also newly vowing to stave off the Saudi aerial attack, after Riyadh declared the end goal is to eject the Houthis from Sanaa. One excuse or way out of not choosing to trigger the Mecca pact could center on the fact that the Houthis are a non-state actor, or at least are not ‘recognized’ as a legitimate government on an international level.
END
SAUDI ARABIA/USA
THE SAUDI’S SHOULD RECEIVE THEIR NUCLEAR DEAL!!
US-Saudi Nuclear Deal Clears Vienna Hurdle As Congress Review Continues
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 06:30 AM
Authored by Michael Kern via OilPrice.com,
- IAEA chief Rafael Grossi says Saudi Arabia won’t sign the Additional Protocol but will accept oversight powers over enrichment, conversion and reprocessing that closely mirror it.
- The underlying US-Saudi 123 agreement, signed July 22, opens a path to domestic uranium enrichment after a two-year study, a break from the UAE’s enrichment-free ‘gold standard.’
- Congress is 90 days into reviewing the deal, with Democrats and nonproliferation groups pushing back and two side letters still classified.
A planned nuclear cooperation deal between the United States and Saudi Arabia won’t include the toughest inspection regime the U.N.’s atomic watchdog has to offer, but it’s going to come close on the activities that matter most.
That’s the picture International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi laid out Monday in Vienna, speaking to reporters during the agency’s September Board of Governors meeting. Riyadh isn’t signing the IAEA’s Additional Protocol, the tool that lets inspectors show up unannounced at sites a country hasn’t even declared. But Grossi said Saudi Arabia is preparing to grant the agency verification and monitoring authority over its most sensitive nuclear activities, uranium enrichment, the conversion step that precedes it, and reprocessing, that functions almost the same way.
“These are sensitive activities, as we all know,” Grossi told reporters. The new powers being built into the bilateral safeguards agreement, he said, will be “very, very similar” to what the Additional Protocol provides, though he declined to spell out specifics. Once finished, that safeguards agreement still has to go before the IAEA’s own 35-member Board of Governors for sign-off.
A Deal Years In The Making
The framework goes back to a 123 agreement that Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman signed on July 22, capping more than a decade of on-and-off talks that repeatedly stalled over Riyadh’s refusal to give up enrichment as a condition of U.S. cooperation. The pact, named for the section of the Atomic Energy Act that governs U.S. nuclear exports, opens the door for American firms to build reactors in the kingdom and hands Riyadh something it has wanted for years: a real shot at enriching its own uranium.
Under the terms reported at signing, Washington and Riyadh have two years to study whether domestic enrichment makes commercial sense. Any enrichment plant built afterward would go up under a “black box” model, run by U.S. companies inside Saudi Arabia so the underlying technology never actually changes hands. It’s a sharp departure from Washington’s 2009 pact with the United Arab Emirates, the deal nonproliferation advocates still call the gold standard, under which Abu Dhabi permanently gave up enrichment and reprocessing altogether.
Congress Gets Its Say
The administration sent the agreement to Congress in late August, starting a 90-day review clock under the Atomic Energy Act. Lawmakers can let it take effect by doing nothing, or pass a joint resolution of disapproval to kill it, though that would need to survive a presidential veto. Two side letters attached to the deal remain classified, according to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which also notes that of the 51 countries with active 123 agreements, only Argentina and Brazil currently lack the Additional Protocol. Saudi Arabia would be the third.
Congressional Democrats have pushed back hard, joined by some Republicans, arguing the deal opens the door to a wider enrichment race across the Middle East. The White House, meanwhile, has tied the agreement to Saudi Arabia eventually joining the Abraham Accords and normalizing relations with Israel, a step Riyadh has so far declined to take without progress toward Palestinian statehood.
The Backdrop
For Riyadh, the deal is also part of a broader push under Vision 2030 to build out nuclear power alongside renewables and diversify an economy still tied to oil exports, with U.S. firms like Westinghouse positioned to compete for reactor contracts worth billions. The talks are unfolding against last year’s war between Israel and Iran, which has hardened Gulf calculations around nuclear deterrence. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has said publicly the kingdom would pursue a weapon of its own if Iran ever built one. Iran, for its part, operated under the Additional Protocol from 2016 to 2021 under the nuclear deal that collapsed after the U.S. withdrew in 2018, a history nonproliferation groups keep pointing to as they push for tougher terms on Riyadh.
For now, the deal sits in a kind of holding pattern. Congress’s review runs deep into the fall. The bilateral safeguards text is still being finalized in Vienna. And whether the arrangement Grossi described Monday ends up satisfying skeptics on Capitol Hill, or just gives them a new set of details to pick apart, is still an open question.
ISRAEL TBN
END
HOUTHIS
Houthi threat to Red Sea expands with takeover of Mocha, potentially reshaping region – analysis
The advance by the Houthis was anticipated. It also appears that although the Houthis suffered some setbacks on other fronts, this offensive could have wider implications for the region.
A Houthi follower rises a weapon as he attends a rally marking one year of Saudi-led air strikes, in Yemen’s capital Sanaa.(photo credit: MOHAMED AL-SAYAGHI/REUTERS)
SEPTEMBER 10, 2026 11:30
After three days of escalating conflict in Yemen, where it appeared that the Saudi-backed government was making gains, the Houthis gained control of the city of Mocha on the Red Sea on Thursday.
The advance by the Houthis was anticipated. It also appears that although the Houthis suffered some setbacks on other fronts, this offensive could have wider implications for the strategic Red Sea Mandab Straits.
Mocha is a port city that is one of several important ports in Yemen. Along with Hodeidah, it plays a key role along the Red Sea coast. It also sits at the northern end of the Bab al-Mandab Strait. As such, this could potentially put the Iranian-backed Houthis closer to being able to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the way they have attempted to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Houthi control gives Iran greater influence
This would give Iran more influence in the region, even as Iran was appearing to lose out on many fronts. For instance, Iranian-backed proxies have faced setbacks in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. They have also faced pressure to disarm in Iraq. The Houthis are one of the most powerful pro-Iranian groups remaining.
Reuters reported that the Houthis had taken Mocha on September 10. The full story of what is happening in Yemen remains to be seen because reports are not always accurate. What matters is that the Houthis are trying to increase their role along the Red Sea.
This comes amid several developments in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. The Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia this week as fighting increased in Yemen. Riyadh backs the government of Yemen against the Houthis. Saudi Arabia led an intervention in Yemen in 2015.
Now, Arab News in Saudi Arabia has reported that “Saudi civil defense issued an emergency alert for the south western province of Khamis Mushait to warn of potential danger for the fourth time in 24 hours.” The General Directorate of Saudi Civil Defense said: “The danger has been lifted from Khamis Mushayt Governorate. For your safety, continue to follow the instructions of the Civil Defense and completely avoid gatherings and photography. In case of emergencies, call the number (998).” The warning had been linked to the Houthi conflict.
The Houthis had claimed to target an airbase in this part of southern Saudi Arabia near Yemen. As such, the Kingdom was being cautious. This shows that the Houthis are not wary of continuing to target the Kingdom. This comes as Pakistan has expressed support for Saudi Arabia. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey recently signed onto a defensive pact. There are questions about whether the Houthi attacks might trigger wider support for Riyadh.
Pakistan expresses solidarity with Saudi Arabia
Pakistan’s leader has expressed his “unwavering solidarity” with Saudi Arabia, after Houthi drone and missile attacks on civilian and energy facilities in the Kingdom left 73 people injured, Arab News noted. “At the same time, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said that a three-nation defense pact between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye could become operational in the event of aggression against the Kingdom.”
Many are watching closely to see if the Saudis will receive support from their new partners. Iran is also watching to see if the Houthis can continue to make gains and threaten the Bab al-Mandab strait. The threat of the Houthis may increase global insecurity and continue to roil energy markets. US President Donald Trump had said that he expects the conflict with Iran to wind down after the US mid-term elections. The high oil prices are expected to come down as well. The battles in Mocha could change this perception.
There are other issues that will affect the fate of Yemen and the Red Sea coast. Saudi Arabia has been backing the government forces in Yemen. However, the Saudis and the UAE have not agreed on policy in Yemen. This may present challenges for the frontlines around Aden and Mocha.
The Yemen government forces who oppose the Houthis face a challenge in that they control areas around the Houthis, but the Houthis control the high ground and also part of the coast. As such, the Houthis can shift forces along internal lines. The Yemen government can’t do this. They can’t move forces easily from Jawf, for instance, to Mocha. To do so would require a lot of logistics, and it’s not an easy task. As such, the Houthis enjoy some advantages in being able to shift resources from one front to another. Even when pressed, the Houthis will continue to enjoy this advantage.
The setbacks in Mocha illustrate how a forgotten and low-level conflict in Yemen can potentially reshape the region.
END
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Zelensky’s Plane ‘Almost Hit’ By Drone After Take-Off From Moldova
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 02:45 AM
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store has said that the Ukrainian government plane carrying President President Volodymyr Zelensky nearly struck an unidentified drone on Wednesday.
Zelensky is in Oslo where he held talks with Store, chiefly focused on Norwegian assistance in the fight against Russia, and specifically about advancing a European anti-ballistic system. Zelensky also attended King Harald V of Norway’s funeral, for which heads of state from around the world were present.
But the Norwegian PM describes that immediately after departing Eastern Europe, Zelensky’s “flight was almost hit by a drone when it was taking off from Moldova.“
He was further quoted in Norwegian public broadcaster NRK on Wednesday as saying, “That is the reality he lives in” – in reference to the Ukrainian leader.
The report comes amid a surge of recent suspected ‘Russian drone threat’ incidents, including at airports in Germany and elsewhere in Europe.
Ukrainian national media alleges some further details as follows:
A suspected Russian Shahed-type drone that violated Moldovan and Romanian airspace on Sept. 8 nearly hit President Volodymyr Zelensky’s plane as it was departing from Moldova, a source told the Kyiv Independent on Sept. 9.
Zelensky was traveling to Norway to meet Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store ahead of the funeral of King Harald V at the time of the incident. The president’s plane took off from Moldova, where the drone incursion occurred.
Moldova’s Defense Ministry reported on Sept. 8 that a Shahed-type drone had invaded the country’s airspace at around 4:20 p.m. local time. It was monitored by the Moldovan military until the drone crossed into Romanian airspace at around 4:37 p.m.
The Associated Press and CBS have since picked up the story, not offering anything further in terms of details.
These reports additionally say that NATO jets were scrambled as a precaution, but no other details have emerged in terms of where the UAV ended up, or drone recovery. There’s as yet no confirmation that it was sent by Russia, or the true nature or extent of the threat.
Pending more possible details, story seems vague and the Norwegian prime minister seemed to reference it almost in passing. Zelensky has of late been pressing for more urgent anti-air munitions, as Russia targets cities – including the capital – with more and more ballistic missiles and drones.
In this context, he has presented his and Ukraine’s plight as one of existential survival, also as peace talks have remained elusive amid constant escalation.
END
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
ROBERT H…
Crazy business
The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has surged to around 5.34% — its highest in over 25 years watching for what happens with 5 and 10 year rates to see the real impact on borrowing costs.
Brent Crude: $105.58, +4.3%
West Texas Intermediate (WTI): above $100
U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI): +5.4% YoY
One does wonder why Zelensky has been allowed to strike at Russian refineries further restricting supply of diesel and heating oil etc.
Higher oil → renewed inflation pressure → higher long-term yields → tighter financial conditions.
The oil shock is increasingly spilling into the bond market. As this continues to grow in repercussions since the straits are not likely to be opened much before Christmas, if then; the global shock of this will affect all nations. Borrowing rates have no where to go but up. The fortunate ones will be those parties with locked rates or the flexibility to restrict future debt from day to day operations.
Those parties who did not understand to see will face much higher rates which will reflect upon loan risk that traditional Lenders will use for profit as they always have. The big concern for banks will be loan loss going forward as they raise rates. Undoubtedly banks are running credit assessments ahead of coming rate hikes and will restrict credit accordingly. This is what they always do.
END
COVID VACCINE INJURIES: MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER..
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS/ENERGY COMMENTARIES
BRENT: 102 DOLLARS
Brent Tops $102 As Mideast Conflict Intensifies, HSBC Hikes Oil Forecast
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 07:20 AM
Brent crude futures traded above $102 a barrel Thursday morning after Iran threatened to intensify attacks, renewing concerns over tanker flows through the Hormuz maritime chokepoint. The supply risk extends well beyond crude to mounting shortages of refined products, particularly diesel, as the US diesel crack spread trades around $102 a barrel.
President Trump’s indication yesterday that the conflict could continue beyond November’s midterm elections suggests limited near-term fuel pump relief for working-class folks, with the US national gasoline average above the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon threshold and diesel at a record high. Trump also announced overnight a proposal for a $5,000 “Trump dividend” check for every American adult if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress.
Following Goldman, HSBC raised its 2026 average Brent crude forecast to $90 a barrel from $80, citing continued disruptions to shipping through the critical Gulf waterway that are expected to keep global oil balances tighter for longer.
With Hormuz flows running at roughly 30% of pre-conflict levels, HSBC analysts see the market adjusting to a prolonged period of depressed tanker transit through the chokepoint. That outlook suggests sustained supply constraints through year-end.
“The key indicator to watch is whether this will put an end to the heavy shuttling of oil through the Strait of Hormuz,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management in Copenhagen. “It may not come to a complete halt, but combined with the more aggressive Houthis in the Red Sea and higher Chinese crude oil imports, the global oil market balance appears to be deteriorating again.”
Earlier this week, Vitol Group CEO Russell Hardy said about 10 million barrels a day have been crossing the waterway, roughly half of pre-war levels. He added that an exact figure is hard to quantify and that volumes aren’t guaranteed daily.
Read:
Goldman commodities strategist Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby sharply revised tanker-flow estimates through the Hormuz chokepoint to between 15 million and 16 million barrels per day, roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels. That’s mainly because the market is not counting ships that turn off their automatic identification systems to avoid detection by Iran.
Goldman’s Daan Struyven also noted one upside scenario this week that could push Brent to $120 if the conflict persists…
“The fundamental picture for products remains bullish with global inventories and reserves deteriorating,” said Darrell Fletcher, managing director for commodities at Bannockburn Capital Markets. Before ‘Operation Epic Furry’, about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passed through Hormuz to global customers, mainly in Asia. The ongoing disruptions have sent NatGas prices in Europe above 81 euros on Thursday.
Beyond energy, a broad-based commodity rally has pushed agricultural products and metals higher, sending the Bloomberg Commodity Index to levels last seen in 2012. HSBC analysts spot a commodities cycle developing into a “super squeeze,” which suggests the move could be sustained.
END
WTI $101/BRENT $106
WTI Tops $101 As Strategic Petroleum Reserve Nears Record Low
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 12:10 PM
Following Brent’s lead (which is following Shanghai’s demand push), WTI topped $100 this morning for the first time since May, fueled by festering Middle East hostilities (with Saudi-Houthi attacks stealing the headlines) and the Saudis latest statement showing crude output at a 36-year low.
That suggests the market is transitioning to a regime where $100 Brent is the new floor.
“The economic dimension is crucial,” said Andreas Krieg, a Gulf expert from King’s College London.
“Saudi Arabia is already contending with disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi pressure on shipping in the Red Sea.
Attacks on Jazan and other vital economic infrastructure in the south place the Kingdom’s export system under pressure from both ends.”
Last night’s API report showed de minimus product inventory moves with a modest crude draw…
API
- Crude -2.6mm
- Cushing
- Gasoline +348k
- Distillates -265k
DOE
- Crude -391k (-300k exp)
- Cushing -684k
- Gasoline +1.27mm
- Distillates +2.087mm
Unlike the API report, refined products saw notable inventory builds last week while crude saw a tiny draw (the first time inventories have declined in back-to-back weeks since late June)…
Cushing stocks dipped and remain just off ‘tank bottoms’…
The Trump admin drewdown a tiny 1.24mm barrels from the SPR last week – the smallest since the war began…
…now just 7mm barrels away from record lows…
US Crude production hit a new record high…
As Bloomberg’s Tai Liu reports the 4-week moving average for US gasoline demand was 8.8 million barrels per day for the EIA week ended 9/4/2026, a week on week decline of 104,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, the more volatile weekly gasoline demand figure saw a more sizable decline of 371,000 barrels per day. US gasoline crack spreads remain elevated at $40 per barrel, not far from the recent peak of $45 per barrel. US gasoline demand should continue to decline seasonally in the weeks ahead, especially at these elevated price levels.
WTI was hovering around the $100 level ahead of the official inventory data…
…and surged above $101 after the data…
Earlier this morning, we saw PPI driven by a rebound in crude in August. At this pace of rise in crude (and fuel) prices, we will see inflation surge again next month… dragging Warsh along with more hikes (which will do nothing to solve the supply constraint).
One word – stagflation!
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
SOUTH AMERICA
TURNING RIGHT!!
“Bulletproofing The Hemisphere”: Rubio Kicks Off South America Tour As Continent Lurches Right
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 09:00 AM
Secretary of State Marco Rubio kicked off his three-nation tour of Latin America on Tuesday, first meeting with Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella. He will visit Ecuador and Peru later this week, supporting the Trump administration’s increasing engagement with a growing bloc of right-leaning governments aligned with the US.
At their meeting in the coastal city of Barranquilla, de la Espriella said he and Rubio discussed security cooperation against drug trafficking, improved economic ties and an expanded role for Colombia in what he called “bulletproofing the hemisphere.” He said Colombia would be an ally to the US on neighboring Venezuela.
“Colombia wants to newly consolidate itself as the principal hemispheric partner for the United States on security,” said de la Espriella, who took office on August 7 after beating former socialist President Gustavo Petro.
De la Espriella is among a new generation of right-wing leaders recently elected across South America, reflecting a once-in-a-generation political shift likely influenced by the Trump administration’s effort to rid the West of socialist and Chinese influence.
Rubio said the White House hoped to restore cooperation and “perhaps to build upon it,” adding, “And I think you have a president here now that is very interested in making that happen.”
Rubio’s next stop on the tour is Ecuador and Peru, whose governments are also aligned with the Trump administration.
Rubio’s tour comes a little more than a week after President Trump secured the “biggest oil deal in history” with Venezuela, resulting in a major stake in more than 65 billion barrels of oil reserves.
The oil fields are “going to generate royalties and revenues for the Venezuelan people, eventually through a democratically elected government, hopefully sooner rather than later, and directly benefit the people of Venezuela as opposed to going into the pocket of some, you know, corrupt government official or in the hands of American and Venezuelan adversaries,” Rubio said.
Brazil holds its first-round presidential election on October 4. If needed, a presidential runoff can be held on October 25. Right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro is narrowly ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the latest polls, although those leads fall within the surveys’ margins of error. Other polls show the two tied.
The election will determine the leadership and direction of the continent’s largest economy.
Traders are already positioning ahead of the Brazilian election, as we showed on Monday with an “explosive surge” in call open interest in the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ).
Regional ETF outperformers include Peru, up 31%; Brazil, up 20.5%; and Latin America 40, up 19.9%.
These ETFs are beginning to attract buying interest heading into late summer.
Brazil’s election is now a key focus for investors, with the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) gauging market positioning ahead of the vote.
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1637 UP 0.0004
USA/ YEN 153.60 UP 0.062 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!! BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE. URGES PENSION AND INSUANCE FUNDS TO BUY JAPANESE BONDS//
YEN CARRY TRADERS MURDERED
GBP/USA 1.3546 DOWN 0.0003 OR 3 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3806 UP 0.0002 //CDN DOLLAR DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 17.10 PTS OR 0.33%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 321.96 PTS OR 1.27%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.36%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 321.96 PTS OR 1.27%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17,10 PTS OR 0.47%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .36%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 89.22 PTS OR 0.14%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: $4405.50
silver:$67.11
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 48.50 UP 2 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 83/47 ROUBLE// UP 1 ROUBLE AND 60 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.2644 UP 4 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.8733 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.848 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.486 UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early THURSDAY MORNING: 98.76 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.829% UP 6 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2,925% UP 4 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 4.032 UP 7 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.9110 UP 6 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 4.341 UP 9 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.4787 UP 6 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1645 UP 0.0017 OR 17 basis points
USA/Japan: 154.28 UP 0.739 OR YEN IS DOWN 74 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.347 UP 12 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.9164 UP 9 BASIS POINTS.
CANADIAN DOLLAR UP 22 BASIS PTS TO 1.3827
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The USA/Yuan CNY 6.7063 ON SHORE ..UP
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.7120
TURKISH LIRA: 48.50 UP 2 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 11 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.924% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.341 UP 9 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.497 UP 8 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM $4338.30
SILVER AT 10;00: $63.99
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest ratesTHURSDAY
DAY CLOSING TIME/ 12:00 AM///
London: CLOSED DOWN 57.10 PTS OR 0.54%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED DOWN 171.35 PTS OR 0.69%
FRANCE: DOWN 32.44 OR 0.40 PTS
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 4.10 PTS OR 0.02%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 13.69 PTS OR 0.03%
WTI Oil price 100.60 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 105.07 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 84.05 /// ROUBLE UP 1 AND 2/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.909 UP 9 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.590 UP 12 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM//
Euro vs USA 1.1611 DOWN 0.0023 OR 23 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3510 DOWN 0.0040 OR 40 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 5.3738 UP 11 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.9320 UP 6 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.923 UP 4 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 4.000 UP 5 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 154.33 UP 0.794 OR YEN DOWN 79 BASIS PTS//GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM 160.00/ EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3832 UP 0.0027 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 27 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 102.57
Brent OIL: 107.68
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 13 BASIS pts to 4.9610
USA 30 yr bond yield: UP 8 PTS to 5.370%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.560 UP 13 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.948 UP 10 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.6410 UP 15 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 98.82 UP 4 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 48.50 UP 2 BASIS PTS GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 84.15 UP 0 AND 92/100 roubles //
GOLD $4,330.00 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 63.75 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 332.87 POINTS OR 0.64%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 318.04 PTS OR 1.08%
VOLATILITY INDEX 17.86 UP 1.40 PTS OR 8.51%
GLD: $ 396.36 DOWN 6.99 PTS OR 1.73%
SLV/ 57/50 PTS DOWN 3.22 OR 5.30%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 457.29 PTS OR 1.27%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Bonds, Bitcoin, Bullion, & Big-Tech Battered As Black Gold & PPI Spike Rate-Hike Odds Ahead Of CPI
WRAP UP
USA DATA RELEASES
PPI
THE USA RELEASE OF THEIR PPI NUMBERS YET
Yes, the U.S. released the latest PPI (Producer Price Index) numbers today.The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published the August 2026 PPI data on Thursday, September 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET (12:30 p.m. UTC).
jmmresearch.com
Key figures (seasonally adjusted):
- Final demand PPI: +0.4% month-over-month (in line with expectations).
- Year-over-year: +5.4%.
- Final demand goods: +1.1%.
- Final demand services: +0.1%. bls.gov
The official BLS release and major financial outlets (including CNBC) have the full details available now. The next PPI release (for September 2026 data) is scheduled for October 15, 2026.
END
PPI/./THE DATA
Rate-Hike Odds Spike As Fuel Costs Push US Producer Prices Higher
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 08:41 AM
In a relatively unusual turn around, US producer prices hit today ahead of tomorrow’s CPI. Interestingly Consumer prices get all the headlines, it is PPI that offers the most read-throughs for Core PCE – The (old) Fed’s favorite inflation gauge).
Headline producer pries were expected to rebound significantly from July’s flatline as oil prices rebounded on re-escalations in the MidEast, and they printed right in line, up 04.% MoM in August (with July’s revised up to +0.1% MoM. That lifted the annual PPI gain to +5.4% YoY (hotter than expected)…
Energy has flipped from deflation to re-inflation…
PPI final demand good rose 1.1% MoM, the most since May, while PPI final demand services rose 0.1%, the lowest since May.
Here are the details behind the breakdown:
Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods advanced 1.1% in August following two consecutive decreases.
- Over three-fourths of the broad-based rise can be attributed to prices for final demand energy, which moved up 4.2%.The indexes for final demand goods less foods and energy and for final demand foods increased 0.4% and 0.1%, respectively.
Product detail: Over a third of the August increase in the index for final demand goods can be traced to prices for diesel fuel, which jumped 24.1%. The indexes for gasoline, jet fuel, home heating oil, candy and nuts, and tobacco products also advanced. In contrast, prices for residential electric power fell 0.5 percent. The indexes for fresh sausage and for aluminum mill shapes also decreased.
Final demand services: The index for final demand services edged up 0.1 percent in August, the third consecutive increase.
- The August advance can be attributed to a 2.3-percent rise in prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services. Conversely, the index for final demand trade services moved down 0.2 percent, while prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing were unchanged.
Product detail: Leading the August increase in the index for final demand services, prices for truck transportation of freight advanced 2.0 percent. The indexes for airline passenger services, legal services, hospital inpatient care, and automobiles retailing (partial) also rose. In contrast, margins for fuels and lubricants retailing decreased 11.3 percent. The indexes for health, beauty, and optical goods retailing; machinery and equipment wholesaling; and portfolio management also moved lower.
Core PPI (Ex Food and Energy) rose a cooler than expected 0.2% MoM (+0.3% MoM exp), and pulled Core producer prices up 4.6% YoY (as expected)…
Goods inflation is re-accelerating while Services inflation is slowing…
Energy was the biggest driver with Transportation and Warehousing costs jumped while Trade costs deflated…
Portfolio management costs declined as stocks stagnated…
Higher crude, higher PPI Energy…
Fuel costs were the biggest driver within Energy/Commodities with over a third of the August increase in the index for final demand goods can be traced to prices for diesel fuel, which jumped 24.1%.
And that has lifted rate-hike odds for next week, now at 75%…
Will Warsh deliver another major surprise (not hike)? Just wait for tomorrow’s CPI to print cool…
END
affordability strikes!!
Existing Home Sales Slump (Again) In August, Supply Hits 10 Year High
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 10:16 AM
Existing home sales tumbled for the 3rd straight month in August, falling 2.0% MoM, sparking its biggest annual decline since January…
This implied an annualized rate of 3.98 million in August, marking one of only two times since the fall of 2024 that sales have dipped below 4 million…
“Mortgage rates and home sales move in opposite directions, so it’s not surprising to see a mild dip in home buying activity due to high mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
“Still, home prices are rising, and existing home sales are actually up 1.6% year-to-date through the first eight months of the year…” Yun noted.
“Homebuying demand, despite higher interest rates, is no doubt being supported by rising wages, which grew 3.1% in August, along with 643,000 net new jobs added since the start of the year. Job creation and wage growth typically drive housing demand.”
The median sales price rose 1.6% from a year ago to $429,100, extending a streak of annual price increases dating back to mid-2023.
Finally, and more ominously, Yun continued, “The number of months it would take to exhaust the total inventory at the current sales pace has grown to 4.9 months’ supply – its highest level in over ten years. The ample supply of homes for sale on the market is giving homebuyers better opportunities to negotiate.”
A rate-hike is just what the housing market wants (or will Warsh’s credibility be regained and lower the long-end?)
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
INTERESTING!@!
Trump Floats $5,000 “Stimmy” Checks For Every US Adult Citizen If GOP Holds Congress
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 08:05 AM
During a speech Wednesday night at the GOP’s midterm convention in Dallas, Texas, President Trump proposed sending every adult American citizen a $5,000 “Trump dividend” if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress in November.
“If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them,” Trump said, “I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000.”
He continued, “It will be called the Trump dividend,” adding, “Now all we have to do is win.”
Trump told the audience at the American Airlines Center: “Your vote will decide whether our country stumbles at the starting gate of our next 250 years or surges forward and never looks back.”
Quick math: A $5,000 payout to 270 million adults would cost the US government approximately $1.35 trillion. The proposal comes as US public debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time in recent weeks.
Bloomberg strategist Mark Cudmore warned that a large fiscal injection could intensify existing market pressures, including weaker Treasuries, dollar depreciation, and demand for commodities and other real assets.
“The general reaction from markets is very muted precisely as everyone sees almost zero chance of this happening. The US economy is strong and already at risk of running too hot, so pumping in so much extra fiscal stimulus when under funding pressure will exacerbate all the dynamics we’re already focused on in markets: weaker Treasuries, a depreciating dollar and a rush to commodities and real assets,” Cudmore said.
The proposal also arrives as Trump acknowledges that significant fuel-price relief may not come until after the midterms. The national average for gasoline remains above the politically sensitive $ 4-per-gallon level, while diesel prices are at record highs. Trump also indicated that the Iran conflict could continue beyond the elections.
President Trump’s approval rating is around 38%, according to reporting by The Guardian.
Vice President JD Vance said that these proposed post-election direct payments to Americans could be funded by revenue from Trump’s wide-ranging tariff program.
KING NEWS
| The King Report September 10, 2026 Issue 7823 | Independent View of the News |
| Bessent announced the Treasury would repurchase $6B of US debt. As we noted in yesterday’s missive the expectations were as high as $10B. As we warned, the disappointment hurt bonds. The 10-year yield jumped to 4.85%, highest since 11/1/23. The 30-year hit 5.301%. USZs fell to 107 10/32, -21/32 at 11:24 ET. The 2-year inched up to 4.427%, which indicates the Fed is about 75bps behind the curve. Bessent is not doing QE. He is reducing longer-dated, higher yielding US debt with T-Bills. Lending long (US spending) while borrowing short caused beaucoup damage to US financial institutions in the Seventies when short rate jumped higher. The past is prologue. Oct Brent Oil hit 101.54; Oct WTI Oil hit 96.68; Oct Diesel hit 4.7879, +20.2c; and Oct Gasoline declined 4.45c on the end of Drive Season and the new formulation permission. December and January Gasoline rose as much as 3 cents and change. NYT: Iran has signaled that it is willing to escalate its fight with the United States, with senior leaders issuing increasingly sharp warnings… @JTheretohelp1: Beef at an all-time high • Copper at an all-time high • Diesel fuel at an all-time high • Insurance costs at all-time high • Electricity rates at an all-time high • Consumer debt level at an all-time high… Source: RSM/Bloomberg https://x.com/JTheretohelp1/status/2097235050685161700 @JewishWarrior13: Trump on the war with Iran: “The war’s gonna end immediately after the election. Because they can’t hold out any longer. They’re desperate to try and affect the election so that we can get a nice weak group of people in there and leave them alone and let them have their nuclear weapon. All they want is a nuclear weapon. And if they had a nuclear weapon, the whole world is in deep trouble.” https://x.com/JewishWarrior13/status/2097761237333418018 @FoxNews: President Trump insisting gas prices will fall below $2 a gallon after the midterms, saying current high prices are the cost of keeping Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. “Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward. They’re going to be tumbling down, and we’ll get them down, I think for gasoline, we’ll get them below $2 a gallon.” 14:37 ET https://x.com/FoxNews/status/2097756394959048825 For the third time in the past five sessions, the S&P 500 Index gapped lower on the opening – and that was the daily high. After falling to 7624.16 at 11:24 ET, the index plodded to a double top of 7648.70 at 14:55 ET and 7648.52 at 15:27 ET. The S&P 500 Index then sank and closed at 7636.36. Positive aspects of previous session SP Energy +1.09%, SOX Index +0.37%; USZs rallied to -11/32 at the NYSE close Negative aspects of previous session S&P -0.48%, DJIA -0.77%, DJTA -1.09%, Nasdaq -0.64%. Nas 100 -0.29% SP Info Tech -0.16%, Comm Services -0.24%, Health Care -0.37%, Financials -0.43%, Materials -0.85%, Consumer Staples – 0.94%, Real Estate -1.12%, Utes -1.16%, Cons Discr -1.39%, Industrials -1.51% Oil rallied sharply. Diesel rallied smartly. Gasoline was mixed. USZs -21/32 at low; bond and note yields rose and are breaking out. The S&P 500 high, again, was the opening. Ambiguous aspects of previous session What will force people to stop buying AI bubble stocks? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7640.40 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7660.68 (9:30 ET); 7624.16 (11:24 ET) Two dire warnings, one from Terence Tao, the other from someone who just quit Anthropic Terence Tao, perhaps the most respected living mathematician…his (AI) views have radically shifted… https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-dire-warnings-one-from-terence @JTheretohelp1: DJIA: 1929 vs. 2026 – While most discuss how this time is different for markets, for once I’d concur. It is the most overvalued, over-leveraged, and over-concentrated market of all time. Meanwhile, we’re forming a Grand Cycle 5th-wave top eerily similar to the run-up into 1929 before its cycle top. Chart source: 7th Key Financial https://x.com/JTheretohelp1/status/2097706224502354243 @NewsLambert: Another 52-week high: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.97%. Same day last year: 6.29%. https://x.com/NewsLambert/status/2097753871623823560 Scott Bessent Tells Currency Traders He’s ‘The House’ Now “I am the house now,” Bessent said Tuesday at an event at Southern Methodist University, pointing to his insight into the Bank of Japan and Japanese policymakers following the recent joint U.S.-Japan intervention in currency markets. “And you can bet against me if you want.”… https://www.thewealthadvisor.com/article/scott-bessent-tells-currency-traders-hes-house-now The last US Treasury Secretary with such bravado, ego, and bad judgment was probably Jimmy Baker Three Sticks. After a gut-wrenching stock market tumble on Friday, October 16, 1987, George H. W. Bush’s former tennis partner on Saturday, October 17, 1987, threatened that he would let the dollar tumble if West Germany did not halt its rate hikes. The Stock Market Crash of 1987 then occurred. Germany Is Cautioned on Interest Rates: Baker Warns Further Hikes May Bring U.S. to Foster Fall in Dollar https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1987-10-18-mn-15286-story.html “First, whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad with power.”– Professor Charles A. Beard (1874–1948), a leading historian, when asked what major lessons he had learned from history. Today – The August PPI Report should be bad. But will Team Trump allow the BLS to tell the truth? Gasoline and diesel prices soared during August. Will this be reflected in today’s PPI report? If not, bonds might rally initially, but like the questionable July CPI Report, Mr. Bond will eventually show his displeasure with the real inflation in the economy. Equity jockeys want and need a rally because the S&P 500 Index has closed negative for 3 straight sessions. It is rare for the index to experience more than 3 straight declines. The last time the S&P 500 Index declined for 4 consecutive session was in March amid a ~10% decline. Expected Economic Data: August PPI 0.4% m/m & 5.3% y/y, Core PPI 0.3% n/n & 4/6% y/y; Initial Jobless Claims 205k, Continuing Claims 1.79m; Aug Existing Home Sales 3.99m ESUs +7.50, NQUs +14.50, USUs -1/32, Oct WTI +$1.04, Oct Gas +1.4c, Yen/$ 153.59 at 20:16 ET. S&P 500 50-eay MA: 7602; 100-day MA: 7487; 200-day MA: 7152 (S&P 500 Close 7636.36) DJIA 50-day MA: 52,969; 100-day MA: 51,667; 200-day MA: 49,923 (DJIA Close 52,380.66) (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) FT’s @maxseddon: CIA director John Ratcliffe is preparing to take a bigger role in US negotiations with Russia and Ukraine. And the White House is considering paring back the involvement of US special envoy Steve Witkoff, the lead negotiator with Putin. CIA Official Spokeswoman Liz Lyons @CIASpox: This reporting is false. WSJ’s @yarotrof: Trump sent Ratcliffe to Moscow. Putin refused to see Ratcliffe because he didn’t like the message, and asked for different Americans with a different message. Witkoff and Kushner promptly arrived, pleasing Putin with tales about how they would cherish “incredible memories” of his blessed presence. Now Trump is back to calling Zelensky an obstacle to peace. It’s fun to negotiate with America. @RapidResponse47: “Can you tell us about your conversation with President Putin?” @POTUS: “We had a great conversation. He is wanting to make a deal — and if Zelensky is wanting to make a deal, that’d be very nice.” “What is the holdup?” @POTUS: “The holdup is two people that hate each other.” https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2097758036831908273 Remarks by Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (As Delivered via Video Teleconference) Sept. 8, 2026 Europe’s greater assumption of responsibility for its own defense is fully consistent with a strong and viable Ukrainian defense — provided that Europe continues to act with requisite seriousness and urgency… Russia is reconstituting its forces and defense-industrial capacity. We must be prepared for a protracted conflict and for Ukraine’s requirements to persist in the months and years ahead. And we must also be prepared for other plausible contingencies as well… Europe must plan now for sustained procurement that supports both Ukraine’s long-term force reconstitution and Europe’s own defense requirements… (This means no end in sight for war.) https://www.war.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/4592668/remarks-by-under-secretary-of-war-for-policy-elbridge-colby-at-the-ukraine-defe/ @AnthonyGalli: 80% of Muslims in the U.S. came after 9/11. We never forgot because we never learned our lesson. https://x.com/AnthonyGalli/status/2097312243025367343 @AnnCoulter Mostly under Bush. UC Berkeley Law intentionally discriminated against white, Asian applicants: Feds https://trib.al/BPquSSi | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
GREG HUNTER..
TO ALL OUR JEWISH FRIENDS OUT THERE A VERY HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR..
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