SILVER: 64.37 3;30 PM)
EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,364.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/10/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 09/14/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 3
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 3
709 C BARCLAYS 2
905 C ADM 8
TOTAL: 8 8
MONTH TO DATE: 2,728
SEPT 11
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT./2026: 8 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 800 OZ or 0.0248 TONNES
total notices so far: 2728 contracts FOR 272,800 OZ OR 8.485 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES:200 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1,000,000 OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5384 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 26.920 million oz
GLD
SEPT: INITIAL STANDING: 24.172 MILLION OZ//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 237 CONTRACT OR 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.850 MILLION OZ//
SEPT: INITIAL STANDING 8.756 MILLION OZ//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.185 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP//STANDING ADVANCES TO 28.850 MILLION OZ
GOLD COMEX OUTLINE;
1.MAY SUMMARY FOR MAY TONNES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY:
4. AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THE NET MONTH’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47.2312 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THE FOLLOWING EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE RECEIVED FOR THE MONTH: 5.4432 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AUG 7 , AUG 11: 2.413 TONNES EX FOR RISK AND AUG. 12 OF 2.
5.SEPT: INITIAL 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD PLUS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.4883 TONNES PLUS 2.2827 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//NEW TOTAL EX. FOR RISK/MONTH = 22.923//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR GOLD SEPT ADVANCES TO = 48.801 TONNES!!
6.OCTOBER: 90.012 TONNES OF INITIAL GOLD STANDING WITH TODAY’S TINY 0.00311 TONNES QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS DURING OCT OF 76.1656 TONNES
THEN WE MUST ADD OUR 14.553 TONNES OF OUR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/6 OCCASIONS//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING ADVANCES TO 197.5141 TONNES OF GOLD.
7.NOVEMBER BEGINS WITH 15.651 TONNES INITIALLY STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2.323 TONNES FOLLOWED BY ALL PREVIOUS QUEUE JUMPS IN OF OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 4.5596 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
8. DECEMBER BEGINS WITH INITIAL STANDING OF 83.813 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0TONNE QUEUE JUMP WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 4 EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER OF 6.587 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 121.977 TONNES
9. JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.08709 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEB; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 93.567 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT 0.0248 TONNES 0.1555 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO 41.2082 TONNES/ NEW NET QUEUE JUMP INCREASES TO 41.233 TONNES// AND THEN WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 10,080 CONTRACTS OR 31.251 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 157.878 TONNES
MARCH:: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD TODAY’S FAIR 4600 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.2320 TONNES) AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES/
APRIL: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 52.600 TONNES FOLLOWED BY OUR 345 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 34,500 OZ/ (1.073 TONNES)/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1498 CONTRACTS FOR 149800 OZ OR 4.659 TONNES. THE NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 2239 CONTRACTS OR 223900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS (70.762 TONNES) TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL (77.726 TONNES)
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 345 CONTRACTS OR 34500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 24.635 TONNES/STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES OF GOLD.
JUNE; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 64.496 TONNES.(CME CORRECTED) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 0.0186 TONNES/NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRSST EXCHANGE FOR RISK 0F 0.0062 TONNES/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 40.824TONNES
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 5TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 5 CONTRACTS FOR 500 OZ OR 0.0155 TONNESS TO OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 200 CONTRACTS OR 20,000 OZ OR 6.220 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.7045 TONNES TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 1.552 TONNES TO OUR FIRST 0.0715 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.9688 AND THEN ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 39 CONTRACTS FOR 3,900 OZ OR 0.1213 TONNES//STANDING THUS ADVANCES TO 67.2441 TONNES
SEPT: INITIAL STANDING: 8.756 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 15 CONTRACTS OR 1500 OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON (.0466 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO, 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES//// // NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 16.0058 TONNES..
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS IN GOLD ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3393 CONTRACTS WITH 122 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 3515 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.
THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3,393 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED AND CRIMINAL 1302 CONTRACTS AND THESE ISSUANCES ARE GENERALLY USED TO INITIATE A RAID WHEN CALLED UPON .
GOLD PRICE FELL BY $50.60
STANDING FOR THE LAST 8 MONTHS JANUARY TO AUGUST:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD, JANUARY CONTRACT AT 59.2108 TONNES OF GOLD
FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 157.878 TONNES!! WHICH INCLUDES ALL QUEUE JUMPING, THREE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFERS TO LONDON AND OUR SIX ISSUANCES EXCHANGE FOR RISK!!
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING AT 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FINAL DAY: 0.2320 TONNES QUEUE JUMP AND THEN ADD +22.3818 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.6648 TONNES
APRIL: INITIAL STANDING 52.600 TONNES PLUS 27,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP (0.8648TONNES): NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 70.286 TONNES PLUS OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES/NEW FINAL STANDING: 77.726 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND; 12.24 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP FOR 345 CONTRACTS/34,500 OZ// 1.073 TONNES/ THEN WE MUST ADD OUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE: TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK MAY// 5 OCCASIONS: 24.635 TONNES///NEW FINAL STANDING NOW ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNES
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER JUMP OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING 127.03 TONNES//FINAL
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0000 TONNES/ PLUS 0.0062 TONNES EX FOR RISK///NEW STANDING FOR GOLD REMAINS AT 40.824TONNES.
AUGUST INITIAL STANDING 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIRST 0.0715 TONNES EXCHANGE TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 1.552 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF: 1.7045//TOTAL FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK 3.3312 TONNES TO OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 200 CONTRACTS FOR 0.6220 TONNES/TO OUR 5TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 0.0155 TONNES//TOTALL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.9688 TONNES TO OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.1213 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 67.2441 TONNES
SEPT: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.756 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1500 OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON (.0466 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SECOND 1000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO OUR FIRST: THUS// NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 6.2208 TONNES// NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 16.0058 TONNES.
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STRONG THIS MONTH
MAY: 113.499 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH
JUNE: 97.79 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE/EXTREMELY SMALL
JULY : 150.877 TONNES// QUITE SMALL
AUGUST: 175.86 TONNES A LOT LARGER THIS MONTH.
SEPT. 116.13 TONNES VERY SMALL
OCT. 252.72 TONNES//CERTAINLY MUCH LARGER THIS MONTH/VERY STRONG
NOV: 124.74 TONNES
DEC: 190.04 TONNES//GOOD SIZED THIS MONTH FINAL.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED FOR YEAR 2025: 2,026.20 TONNES (LOWER THAN LAST YR 2,569.00 TONNES
YEAR 2026:
JANUARY: 209.08 TONNES ( (WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB. 176.35 TONNES (WHICH IS A FAIR ISSUANCE)
MARCH: 214.67 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG ISSUANCE THIS MONTH
APRIL; 88.00 TONNES// WILL BE VERY SMALL THIS MONTH
MAY 118.430 TONNES
JUNE: 142.053 TONNES
JULY: 163.82 TONNES
AUGUST: 151.107 TONNES
SEPT: 46.507 TONNES
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SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 46.29 PTS OR 1.18%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 195.97 PTS OR 0.79%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 1220.95 PTS OR 1.87%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.18%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 6.7097
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.7093 Oil DOWN TO 100.63 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 104.68 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING DOWN (6.7097 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.7093 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMITS
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
SILVER:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A SMALL 88 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 104,754
EFP ISSUANCE 810 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 810 CONTRACTS and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 88 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 810 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OF 722 OI OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $3.50
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 3.610 MILLION PAPER OZ
STANDING SEPT AT 28.850 MILLION OZ
SILVER PRICE LOSS OF $3.50
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LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL 122 CONTRACTS TO 414,028 STILL WELL ABOVE ITS NEW LOW OF 326,052 OI SET JUNE 3, CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW OF 345,705 SET (MAY 28) AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME LOW IN OI OF 353,490 SET MAY 27.. PREVIOUS TO THAT THE ALL TIME LOW IN OI WAS 390,000 SET IN THE YEAR 2001 WHEN GOLD WAS TRADING $260.00. THE CME SHOULD BE PROUD OF THEMSELVES AS MANY HAVE ABANDONED THIS CROOKED ARENA!!THUS OUR NEW ALL TIME LOW OF COMEX OI HAS NOW BEEN SET AT 326,052 //JUNE 3 2026 WITH GOLD AT AN EXTREMELY HIGH $4,450.00 WHICH MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!!
WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING//RAID. IT SEEMS THAT MANY OF THE SPECULATORS THAT HAVE NOW CONTINUED AGAIN TO BE ON THE SHORT SIDE WITH BANKERS ON THE LONG SIDE AND THESE GUYS WERE AGAIN OBLITERATED YESTERDAY WHEN THE LONGS TENDERED FOR DELIVERY:
CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED THEIR NEW LONG CONTRACTS AT THE END OF THE DAY FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THIS JULY CONTRACT MONTH!!
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (3393 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE IN GOLD (DOWN $50.60)
WE THUS HAD A FAIR GAIN IN OI ON BOTH OF OUR EXCHANGES (3393 CONTRACTS), DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE, AS WE WERE INFORMED OF A STRONG CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE EQUATING TO 3515 CONTRACTS.
THEN WE WERE NOTIFIED TODAY OF A 0 CONTRACT FOR RISK ISSUANCE IN GOLD CONTRACTS FOR 0 OZ OR 0 TONNES OF GOLD. TOTAL THUS SO FAR THIS MONTH: 2000 CONTRACTS//200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES (2 OCCASIONS)
MONTH OF MAY RECORD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK: THE HIGHEST EVER ISSUANCE!!
MAY 22 RECORDS THE HIGHEST EVER EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 12.4416 TONNES. WE HAD OUR FIRST ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK IN THE MONTH OF MAY ON MAY 7, THEN OUR 2ND ISSUANCE FOR OUR MAY GOLD MONTH ON MAY 12. THE THIRD ON MAY 18 , THEN MAY 21 OUR 4TH ISSUANCE AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY, OUR 5TH ISSUANCE. THIS GOLD WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL MAY DELIVERIES TO GIVE US OUR FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX..
HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS YEAR: FEBRUARY THROUGH JULY AND AUGUST
FEBRUARY:
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FEBRUARY CONTRACT MONTH, WE HAD TWO IDENTICAL MONSTER 3,000 CONTRACT ISSUED FOR THE SAME 9.33 TONNES OF GOLD, AND THESE WERE THE HIGHEST EVER IN TONNAGE EVER ISSUED BY THE COMEX. ALTOGETHER THE TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR FEB TOTALLED SIX.(31.251 TONNES).
MARCH:
THURSDAY MARCH 17 WE RECEIVED ITS INITIAL 2000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 6.22 TONNES. LAST FRIDAY: 0 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. BUT ON MONDAY MARCH 23 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR SECOND EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 2,200 CONTRACTS (220,000 OZ OR 6.843 TONNES) AND NOW FRIDAY WITH A MONSTER 2996 CONTRACTS FOR 9.3138 TONNES. THESE THREE ISSUANCES WILL NOW BE ADDED TO THE REGULAR AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING, I.E. 22.3818 TONNES TO OUR NORMAL GOLD STANDING TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD FOR MARCH!
APRIL;: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR, I.E. 2239 CONTRACTS FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES AND THIS TOTAL TONNES WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN APRIL
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS OR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES.
JUNE: 0 IN GOLD. THUS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH IN GOLD ZERO NOTICES WERE FILED.
JULY: 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES
AUGUST: 1276 CONTRACTS FOR 127,600 OZ OR 3.9688 TONNES (5 OCCASIONS THIS MONTH)
SEPT: SO FAR: 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNESS (TWO OCCASIONS)
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A LITTLE HISTORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK DECEMBER THROUGH TO AUGUST:
IN DECEMBER WE HAVE RECORDED 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/4 FOR DEC AND THE LAST ONE ON DEC 31 FOR JANUARY. WE NOW HAVE 3 CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THIS ISSUANCE AND IT MUST BE A CENTRAL BANK. YOU WILL RECALL THAT THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. (THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES/4 OCCASIONS.
MONTH OF JANUARY/EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN JANUARY THEY HAVE 6 TOTAL ISSUANCE : 3.446 TONNES EARLY, THEN JAN 9 ISSUANCE OF 9,331 TONNES AND THEN JAN 16: 0.1996 TONNES JAN 26: 1.499 TONNES, JAN 27: 3.160 AND FINALLY JAN 29: 4.659 TONNES TONNES//TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK JANUARY 22.315 TONNES WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELVERIES.
AND FEBRUARY:
FEB EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NOW 6 ISSUANCES: 10,080 CONTRACTS FOR 1,008,000 OZ OR 31.251 TONNES!
HERE ARE THE CHOICES FOR THE RECIPIENT OF THOSE ISSUANCES:
1 THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND. BUT THEY RECEIVED CLEARANCE THAT THEIR GOLD IS BACK SO IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THEY WOULD LIKE TO ADD TO THEIR RESERVES.
2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE USA: THE FED. LOGICAL CHOICE AS THEY CLAMOUR TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR 131+ TONNES OF SHORTAGE. HOWEVER THEY SEEM NOT TO BE IN A HURRY TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL
3. THE CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA AS THEY BATTLE WITS WITH THE USA.
TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR DECEMBER IS 6.56 TONNES AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTALS..
THE JANUARY ISSUANCE OF 17.656 TONNES WAS ADDED TO OUR DAILY DELIVERY TOTALS!!
FEBRUARY ISSUANCES 6 FOR; 31.251 TONNES !! AND THIS WAS ADDED TO OUR DELIVERY TOTALS FOR THIS MONTH.
MARCH: CME ANNOUNCES ITS FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.22 TONNES OF GOLD DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, AND THEN MONDAY, MARCH 22, WE RECEIVED ITS SECOND NOTICE ISSUANCE OF 2200 CONTRACTS OR 220000 OZ (6.843 TONNES). THEN FINALLY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF OUR THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2996 CONTRACTS OR 9.3188 TONNES. TOGETHER ALL 3 ISSUANCES TOTAL 22.3818 TONNES WHICH WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
APRIL: 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK SO FAR FOR 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES. AND THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND FOR APRIL!!
MAY: FIVE ISSUANCES SO FAR FOR 7920 CONTRACTS, 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES OF GOLD. THIS TOTAL WILL BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERIES IN MAY TO GIVE US WHAT WILL STAND IN MAY.
JUNE: ZERO
JULY 2 FOR 200 OZ OR 0.00622 TONNES. I DOUBT VERY MUCH THAT THIS IS A CENTRAL BANK
AUGUST: 1276 CONTRACTS FOR 127,600 OZ OR 3.9688 TONNES//5 OCCASIONS
SEPT: SO FAR: 2000 CONTRACTS FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES/TWO OCCASIONS
DETAILS ON OUR NEW SEPT COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3393 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE (DOWN $50.60). HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTACKS VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSIONS AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THEIR DAILY ATTACKS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY AND OUR SHORT SPECULATORS FOR THEIR THOUGHTFULNESS.
LONDON ANNOUNCED EARLY IN THE YEAR (AND SCARCITY CONTINUES TO THIS DAY) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO OTHER CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. BOTH COMEX AND LBMA ARE WITNESSING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD LEAVING THEIR VAULTS.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTHS OF JUNE/JULY/AUG CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER HOWEVER IS A FAIR SIZED T.A.S ISSUANCE CONTRACTS .THE CME NOTIFIES US THAT THEY HAVE ISSUED 1392 T.A.S CONTRACTS. THESE ARE GENERALLY USED FOR RAID PURPOSES TO STOP GOLD’S RISE AND TO TEMPER HUGE LOSSES IN OTC DERIVATIVE BETS.
IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS SOMEHOW LOOKED THE OTHER WAY WITH ITS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FRBNY AS THIS ENTITY FOR THE FED REFUSES THE BIS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER AND THAT MAY EXPLAIN THE STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN DECEMBER , JANUARY AND THROUGHOUT FEBRUARY TO GO ALONG WITH OUR HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED DURING THESE MONTHS INCLUDING FEBRUARY’S 6 EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHICH ALSO INCLUDED TWO MONSTER 9.3312 TONNE ISSUANCE (FEB 10 AND FEB 12). TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK/FEB EQUALS 31.251 TONNES!! AND MARCH’S THREE ISSUANCES FOR 22.3818 TONNES! OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE PAYING ATTENTION AS THEY TAKE DELIVERY OF HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL GOLD. APRIL HAD 2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR 6.694 TONNES. AND MAY WITH ITS 5TH ISSUANCE FOR 12.4436 TONNES///TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MAY: 24.635 TONNES ISSUED MAY 6 ,MAY 12, MAY 18 MAY 21 AND NOW MAY 22..
THEN IT SLOWS DOWN!
JUNE: ZERO FOR THE MONTH
JULY: 2 SO FAR FOR 200 IZ IR 0.00622 TONNES
AUGUST: 1276 CONTRACTS FOR 127,600 OZ OR 3.9688 TONNES
SEPT: 2000 CONTRACTS SO FAR FOR 200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES (TWO OCCASIONS)
WE MUST ALSO REMEMBER THAT THE FRBNY IS SHORT 141+ TONNES OF GOLD, THIS COMMENCED ON JAN 2 2023 AS THEY REFUSE TO COVER DESPITE THE BIS’S PLEA TO DO SO.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY ON OUR LAST 16 MONTHS:
1.APRIL AT 209 TONNES
2. AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY WITH FINAL STANDING AT 90.23 TONNES.
3. JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH , FINAL STANDING WAS RECORDED AT A STRONG 93.085 TONNES. //(TOTAL NET QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE JUNE MONTH: 31.027 TONNES.)
4. IN JULY WE HAD HUGE DELIVERY NOTICES ESPECIALLY FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH WITH INITIAL STANDING AT 17.947 TONNES PLUS MANY QUEUE JUMPS + 3.75 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 41.106 TONNES OF GOLD // FINAL TOTAL TONNES STANDING JULY: 41.106 TONNES
5. FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2025
INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 60.547 TONNES PLUS THE MONTHS HUGE QUEUE JUMPS OF 47.2312 TONNES +44.696 TONNES EX FOR RISK (7 ISSUANCES) //NEW STANDING 152.208 TONNES WHICH IS MONSTROUS!!!
6. FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT; INITIAL STANDING; 2,602 CONTRACTS OR 260,200 OZ FOR 8.093 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.4883 TONNES QUEUE JUMP TO GO ALONG WITH TODAY’S 1.244 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE TODAY AND // TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE SEPT: 22.923 TONNES//NEW TOTALS STANDING ADVANCES TO 48.801 TONNES OF GOLD!!!
7. OCTOBER:
OCTOBER: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 90.164 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR LATEST OCT 30 QUEUE JUMP OF 0.00311 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 29 QUEUE JUMP OF .4096 WHICH FOLLOWS; OCT 28 QUEUE JUMP OF .5069 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 27 OF 0.3048 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS: OCT 24 OF 0.8615 TONNES, FOLLOWING OCT 23 QUEUE JUMP OF 1.695 TONNES OCT 22 JUMP OF 8.622 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS OCT 21: 3.8600 TONNES TO OCT 20 QUEUE JUMP OF 7.695 TONNE
SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER STANDING:
NOVEMBER WHERE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING IS REGISTERED AT 15.651 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2 TONNES AND FOLLOWED BY ALL OTHER NOV QUEUE JUMPS OF 21.3775 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 4.5596 TONNES.
/STANDING ADVANCES TO 43.9716 TONNES OF GOLD.
DECEMBER: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MONTH IS 83.813 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.05 TONNES QUEUE JUMP. THIS FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPING: 37.163 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 115.390 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FOUR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 6.559 TONNES//NEW STANDING THUS INCREASES TO 121.977 TONNES
JANUARY: INITITAL STANDING: 13.785 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 30.7117TONNES //NEW TOTAL QUEUE JUMPS 30.7117//NORMAL DELIVERY OF GOLD ADVANCES TO 36.8958 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.315 TONNES//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 59.2108 TONNES.
FEBRUARY: . FEBRUARY: INITIAL STANDING: 93.566 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0248 TONNES WHICH MUST BE ADDED ALL OTHER QUEUE JUMPS OF 41.2087 TONNES QUEUE JUMP//TOTAL QUEUE JUMP FOR FEB::ADVANCES TO 41.233 TONNES///STANDING ADVANCES TO 126.628 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR SIX EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 31.251 TONNES/NEW STANDING FINALIZES AT 157.879 TONNES, ITS HIGHEST STANDING RECORDED IN OVER 4 YEARS.
MARCH: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 8.099 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2320 TONNES AND THEN WE ADD OUR THREE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 22.3818 TONNES////NEW STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO: 67.6648TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH!!
APRIL 2026: INITIAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 52.20 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP/ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES TOTALLING 223,900 OZ OR 6.964 TONNES//STANDING ADVANCES TO 77.726 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE
MAY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 12.24 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 34,500 OZ (1.073 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD OUR FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 792,000 OZ OR 24.635 TONNES////NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR GOLD ADVANCES TO 51.554 TONNESS
JUNE: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 64.496 TONNES TO WHICH WE SUBTRACT AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 0.0186 TONNES//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 127.03 TONNES// TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING FOR THE MONTH FINALIZES AT 62.4217 TONNES OR AVERAGING 3.285 TONNES PER DAY IN JUNE.
JULY: INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND: 749,300 OZ OR 23.306 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 0.000TONNES//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 40.818TONNES PLUS 0.00622 TONNES EXHANGE FOR RISK// NEW TOTAL 40.824 TONNES . TOTAL QUEUE JUMPING SO FAR: 17.5802 TONNES OR 0.8790 TONNES ON EACH TRADING DAY LEAVING COMEX FOR EASTERN SHORES.
AUGUST INITIAL; INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STANDS: 48.687 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 5TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 5 CONTRACTS FOR 500 OZ OR 0.0155 TONNES TO OUR 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 220 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR 0.6220 TONNES TO OUR 3RD EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 1.7045 TONNES TO OUR 2ND EXCHANGE FOR RISK AT 1.552 TONNES TO OUR FIRST: 0.0715 NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 3.9688 TONNES AND THEN ADD OUR NEXT QUEUE JUMP OF 39 CONTRACTS OR 3900 OZ (0.1213 TONNES)//STANDING, IN TOTAL, THUS ADVANCES HUGELY TO 67.2441 TONNES.
SEPT/2026. INITIAL STANDING : 8.756 TONNES//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER OF 1500 OZ OR .0460 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THIS TO OUR TWO EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 2,000 CONTRACTS/200,000 OZ OR 6.2208 TONNES: /NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 16.0958 TONNES
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE 4 YEARS 2021-2024
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
COMEX GOLD TRADING BEGINNING SEPT CONTRACT;
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE ( IT FELL BY $50.60)
WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION THURSDAY // COMEX SESSION// WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE
OTHER EASTERN CENTRAL BANKS TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL EVERY NIGHT WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE HUGE NUMBER OF TONNES OF GOLD THAT STOOD FOR GOLD DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS
THE CROOKS COULD NOT STOP OTHER CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING /THURSDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE AT COMEX OF $50.60
WE HAD 3288 CONTRACTS REMOVED // PRELIMINARY NUMBERS TO FINAL COMEX NUMBERS.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:3393 CONTRACTS OR 339,300 OZ 10.55 TONNES)
SEPT DELIVERY MONTH
SEPT 11
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1 ENTRIES i) Out of JPMorgan 32,225.786 total withdrawal: 32,225.786 oz |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold 1 ENTRIES i) Into Manfra 32,1500.000 oz total deposit 32,150.000 oz (1000 kilobars) xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 8 CONTRACTS 800 OZ 0.0248 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 418 Contracts 41,800 OZ 1.300 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 2728 notices 272,800 OZ 8.485 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER
i) Into Manfra 32,1500.000 oz
total deposit 32,150.000 oz
(1000 kilobars)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawal
1 ENTRIES
i) Out of JPMorgan 32,225.786
total withdrawal: 32,225.786 oz
adjustments: 0
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT OI STANDS AT 426 CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 16 CONTRACTS.
THURSDAY WE HAD NORMAL STANDING AT 316,100 OZ //TODAY: 314,600 OZ STAND. THUS A LOSS OF 1500 OZ(0.00466 TONNES) OR15 CONTRACTS UNDERWENT AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON WHERE THEY WILL TAKE DELIVERY ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND.
OCT LOST 781 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 47,187
NOVEMBER GAINED 11 CONTRACTS RISING TO 680
.
We had 8 contracts filed for today representing 800 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 8 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 3 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPT /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2728) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (426 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 8 x 100 oz per contract) equals 314,600 OZ OR (9.7850Tonnes of gold) to which we add our two exchange for risk, 2000 contracts or 200,000 oz (6.2208 tonnes)///// thus new standing thus advances to 16.0058 tonnes
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPT. /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2728) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(426) contracts minus the number of notices served upon today 8 x 100 oz per contract) equals 314,600 OZ OR (9.7850 Tonnes of gold) to which we add our two exchange for risk of 6.2208 tonnes/new standing advances to 16.0058 tonnes
new total of gold standing in SEPT becomes 16.0058TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT 16.0058 TONNES WHICH IS NOW VERY STRONG FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT
confirmed volume THURSDAY confirmed 231,474/ fair//
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,720,286.441 oz 53.508 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,720,286.441 tonnes oz 53.508 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 27,348,516.543 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 15,120,219.227 tonnes (470.302 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 12,228,297.319 oz. Lots of eligible gold leaving the comex
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,399,993 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
416.796 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
SEPT DELIVERY MONTH
SEPT 11
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 5 entries i) Out of aSAHI 610,774.000 OZ ii) Out of CNT 5,864.200 oz iii) Out of JPMorgan 957,717..800 oz iv) Out of Loomis: 50,031.690 oz v) Out of Manfra: 245,437.697 oz total withdrawal: 1,869,822.387 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | ENTRIES: 2 i) Into Brinks: 681,816.234 oz ii) Into Manfra: 599,664.442 oz total deposit: 1,281,480.676 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 200 CONTRACT(S) ( 1,000,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 386 Contracts (1.930 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5384 contracts 26.920 MILLION oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
ENTRY:0
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
2 ENTRIES:
i) Into Brinks: 681,816.234 oz
ii) Into Manfra: 599,664.442 oz
total deposit: 1,281,480.676 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals:
5 entries
i) Out of aSAHI 610,774.000 OZ
ii) Out of CNT 5,864.200 oz
iii) Out of JPMorgan 957,717..800 oz
iv) Out of Loomis: 50,031.690 oz
v) Out of Manfra: 245,437.697 oz
total withdrawal: 1,869,822.387 oz
adjustments : dealer account to customer account
a) Brinks: 2,073,953.372 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 95.864 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 337.241 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR SEPT
FRONT MONTH: SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS: 586 FOR A GAIN OF 123 CONTRACTS.
THURSDAY WE HAD 27.665 MILLION OZ STAND: TODAY 28.850 MILLION OZ FOR A GAIN OF 1.185 MILLION OZ (1,185,000 OZ OR A 237 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TAKE EXTRA DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
OCT GAINED 252 CONTRACTS TO AN OI OF 3085
NOVEMBER GAINED 37 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 477
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 200 or 1.0 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume THURSDAY; 80,399// good/
AND NOW SEPT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5384 X5,000 oz = 26.920 MILLION oz.
Then we take the difference between the front month of September and the number of notices filed for today x 5000 to give us our standing
Thus the standings for silver for the Sept 2026 contract month: (5384 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPT (586) minus number of notices served upon today ( 200 x 5000 oz) equals silver standing for the SEPT .contract month equating to 28.850 MILLION OZ. ( a very strong delivery month)
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 95.864 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 135.720/337.241million: 40.26%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
SEPT 11//2026/WITH GOLD UP $1.05 /SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.353 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.277 TONNES
/SEPT 10//2026/WITH GOLD UP $50.60 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.63 TONNES
SEPT 9//2026/WITH GOLD UP $20.40 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.63 TONNES
SEPT 8//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $34.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.42 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.06 TONNES
SEPT 4//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $63.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.14 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.48 TONNES
SEPT 3//2026/WITH GOLD UP $141.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 9.98 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.62 TONNES
SEPT 2//2026/WITH GOLD UP $19.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.64 TONNES
SEPT 1//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $80.25 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:// ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.36 TONNES
AUGUST 31//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $48.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.25 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.36 TONNES
AUGUST 28//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $119.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1046.64 TONNES
AUGUST 27//2026/WITH GOLD UP $11.35 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ////:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.950 TONNES
AUGUST 26//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1/138 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.950 TONNES
AUGUST 25//2026/WITH GOLD FLAT /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.279 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.489 TONNES
AUGUST 24//2026/WITH GOLD UP $15.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 12.50 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.21 TONNES
AUGUST 21//2026/WITH GOLD UP $103.98 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.65 TONNES
AUGUST 20//2026/WITH GOLD UP $29.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 9.41 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1034.65 TONNES
AUGUST 19//2026/WITH GOLD UP $123.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.42 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.24 TONNES
AUGUST 18//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $51.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 7.13 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1030.66 TONNES
AUGUST 17//2026/WITH GOLD UP $36.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD FORM THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1023.53 TONNES
AUGUST 14//2026/WITH GOLD UP $16.55 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025.80 TONNES
AUGUST 13//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $43.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3,139 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1025,80TONNES
AUGUST 12//2026/WITH GOLD UP $24.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.562 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022.672TONNES
AUGUST 11//2026/WITH GOLD UP $20.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.52 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1020.06TONNES
AUGUST 10//2026/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.82 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017. 540TONNES
/AUGUST 7//2026/WITH GOLD UP $98.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.720TONNES
AUGUST 6//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.851 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.143TONNES
JLY 24/2026/WITH GOLD UP 6.30 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.30TONNES
JULY 23/2026/WITH GOLD DOWN 98.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1007.87TONNES
JULY 22/2026/WITH GOLD UP $73.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. : //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1005.87 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1050.277 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
SEPT 11 WITH SILVER UP $0.20 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:// A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.722 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.449 MILLION OZ
SEPT 10 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.50 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.171 MILLION OZ
SEPT 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.56 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.171 MILLION OZ
SEPT 8 WITH SILVER UP $0.31 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ A DEPOSIT OF 0.632 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.171 MILLION OZ
SEPT 4 WITH SILVER UP $2.20 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.539 MILLION OZ
SEPT 3 WITH SILVER UP $2.20 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.293 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.539 MILLION OZ
SEPT2 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.832 MILLION OZ
SEPT1 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.43 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.832 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.97 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 0.452 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.832 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.44 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.543,000 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.380 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 27 WITH SILVER UP $1.33 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.923 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.60 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.174 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.923 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.43 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.9786 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 495.097 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.633 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.754 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 21 WITH SILVER UP $1.48 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.121 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 20 WITH SILVER UP $2.92 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.169 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.121 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 19 WITH SILVER UP $1.72 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.259 MILLION OZ OZ INTO THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 18 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.02 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 768,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.296 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 17 WITH SILVER UP $1.11 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 768,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.296 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 14 WITH SILVER UP $0.19 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 720,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.064 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.92 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.341 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.75 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A DEPOSIT OF 3.434 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.341 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A DEPOSIT OF 1.085 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 488.907 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 10 WITH SILVER UP $1.83 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV; / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.822 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 7 WITH SILVER UP $2.00 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 1.355 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.822 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.75 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV : / :INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.467 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 493.171 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF//JOHN RUBINO
JOHN RUBINO..
2. MATHEW PIEPENBERG/EGON VON GREYERZ//ALASDAIR MACLEOD
…//QUOTH THE RAVEN…
A Hot CPI Would Trigger A Bloodbath Tomorrow
Oil is ripping, diesel is at record highs, yields are flirting with 5%, and the market is running out of room for another nasty surprise.
They say bad things come in threes. Putting aside the fact I have no idea who “they” are, “they” seem like “they” could be dead on balls accurate after today.
And do you see that speck off in the distance? That’s urgency and panic. First it’s nowhere to be found, barely visible on the horizon. Next thing you know it has its boot up your ass and you have no idea how or when it got there.
I know I’ve already been postulating the AI bubble could pop this year…with my reasoning here and amended yesterday here as well. But things are getting very, very real as of today. After what happened today, (PPI) tomorrow morning’s CPI report absolutely cannot come in hot. Here’s the six major reasons why, many of which are just brand new and developing over the last 24 hours.
First, today’s PPI report came in hot, with producer prices rising 5.4% year over year in August versus 5.3% expected and 4.8% in July, another sign that inflationary pressures are reaccelerating even as the Fed weighs its next move on rates.
Second, diesel went to all time highs today, and I don’t think people fully appreciate how nasty that can become. Diesel isn’t some obscure commodity. It’s a cost for a trillion different businesses. When diesel explodes higher, transportation and production costs move higher with it. So on the eve of one of the most important inflation reports in months, we have another major inflationary impulse developing right in front of us.
Third, unconfirmed reports are now breaking that Saudi Arabia’s East West crude oil pipeline has suffered catastrophic damage in at least eight locations, according to initial reports on social media. The reports follow satellite observations showing a fire burning along the pipeline route southeast of Medina, with reports of a black smoke plume extending more than 100 kilometers, alongside multiple heat anomalies reportedly detected by NASA FIRMS along the same stretch.
At the time of writing, I have not seen enough authoritative confirmation to call catastrophic pipeline damage an established fact, but we’ll know for sure by morning.
If significant damage to the East West pipeline is ultimately confirmed, the implications could be enormous. The pipeline matters because it gives Saudi Arabia an alternative route for moving crude from its eastern producing regions toward the Red Sea rather than relying entirely on exports through the Persian Gulf.
If geopolitical conditions deteriorate further and critical energy infrastructure becomes increasingly threatened, $120 oil is absolutely within the realm of possibility. And if oil starts heading there, we can probably take the whole comfortable disinflation narrative and light it on fire.
Fourth, it’s also being reported on social media that the Houthis have taken Hisn Murad.
Visegrad24 reports: “It’s the point on the Yemeni coast where the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait is the narrowest (25 km). If they manage to entrench themselves there, it will become incredibly hard to sail through the Strait without Houthi permission.”
Fifth, the bond market is still basically screaming at anyone willing to listen. The 10 year Treasury yield was around 4.96% tonight and traded as high as roughly 4.98%.
The 30 year was around 5.38% and the 2 year around 4.57%. In other words, the 10 year is basically staring at 5 percent and asking what exactly everyone plans on doing about it. This is an enormous problem for a market that has spent years assigning extraordinary valuations to long duration assets and a country with close to $41 trillion in debt that it is racking up faster than Andrew Tate driving one of his rented Ferraris trying to elude the cops.
Oh and sixth. The AI shitburger we just started digesting yesterday. As I wrote about yesterday, AI companies are suddenly facing tremendous scrutiny following the Anthropic whistleblower story. Whatever you think about the underlying debate, increased political and regulatory scrutiny represents another layer of uncertainty for an industry whose valuations, capital spending and seemingly limitless promises about the future have become enormously important to the broader equity market.
The timing here for these six things to develop and converge all within 24-48 hours is outright scary. One of the biggest themes supporting equity valuations is suddenly dealing with increasing scrutiny at precisely the same moment that the risk free rate is screaming higher. At the same time, energy prices are exploding, geopolitical risk is intensifying, diesel has reached all time highs, strategically important oil infrastructure is potentially under threat and the 10 year Treasury is knocking on the door of 5%.
And now we get CPI tomorrow morning.
Normally we can spend the morning debating whether CPI missed or beat expectations by a tenth, dissecting shelter inflation and pretending that the fourth decimal place on some obscure component has revealed the future of monetary policy.
Tomorrow feels different. The market desperately needs this number to behave. It doesn’t necessarily need a beautiful print. It doesn’t need some miraculous collapse in inflation. It just needs CPI to come in in-line and not give the bond market another reason to completely lose its shit.
Because imagine the alternative. CPI comes across the screen materially hotter than expected. That’s the scenario equity investors should be worried about tonight. A genuinely hot print could send another shock through Treasuries, push the 10 year decisively through 5%, force markets to price a more aggressive monetary policy path and put even more pressure on the technology and growth stocks that have carried an enormous portion of this market.
Any one of these developments could probably be digested in isolation. The problem is that we are no longer dealing with one problem. We have an energy shock colliding with an inflation problem, an inflation problem colliding with a bond selloff, a bond selloff colliding with expensive equity valuations and insane national debt obligations, and geopolitical uncertainty threatening to make the energy situation substantially worse.
Meanwhile, the AI trade that has helped underpin the entire market suddenly has politicians, regulators and whistleblowers poking around under the hood. Exactly what you want when the 10 year is flirting with 5%.
After everything that happened today, this market is rapidly running out of things that can go wrong at the same time. If CPI comes in materially hotter than expected tomorrow morning, just as yields threaten to break critical levels and energy markets confront another potentially massive geopolitical shock, equity markets could be staring at an extraordinarily ugly session. Tomorrow’s CPI print absolutely needs to be in line. Another inflation shock right now could be the match this increasingly combustible market really, really does not need.
END
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
Credit crisis unfolding
Usually, credit crises are in the private sector. Today, it’s a global government funding crisis from which there’s no rescue. Gold and silver are the escape route.
This week brought the beginning of a government financing train-wreck to public attention, affecting all G7 nations. That it is only the start of a crisis is the key point, as our oft repeated chart below has been clearly demonstrating since the forty-year downtrend in bond yields was comprehensively broken in 2022:
It has clearly broken out on the upside. The reason is simple and always leads to the end of a currency’s existence: the accumulation of government debt. A fiat currency is the politicians’ licence to spend without limitation — until suddenly they cannot. They then face a debt trap, which is the public sector equivalent of insolvency and bankruptcy, in which the higher the bond yield goes, the higher it must go again. That is where we are now.
President Trump’s promise this week to reward all adult US citizens with $5,000 each if they elect Republican majorities in both houses in the midterms adds a further $1.2 trillion to the existing estimated US budget deficit of over $2 trillion, which Treasury Secretary Bessent can’t even fund. As a politician, Trump is not alone in failing to grasp the existential importance of the financial crises facing his government.
For all G7 nations caught in this trap it is a novel situation, and markets are unsure how to react. Government regulators, macroeconomists, and accountants all say the risk-free non-investment position is cash in your currency of account. The risk-free investment position is said to be 10-year US Treasury notes, because government bonds are deemed low-risk and the dollar is the reserve currency to which the others refer. These assumptions are now being challenged by events.
The chart below compares the daily close of gold, oil, and the 10-year US Treasury yield over the last eight weeks. The reason for showing it is that higher bond yields and oil prices are seen conventionally as headwinds for gold. Yet, with bond yields rising and the oil price soaring, gold is up 8% even in the depths of its own correction having peaked at up 16% on 25th August. The assumptions that cash and government bonds are risk-free and the lowest investment risk respectively are being disproved by current events.
You don’t have to be a chartist to understand that oil prices are going higher still. The cracked components of a barrel of oil are currently over $70 above the price of crude which itself is at $100, giving a true value of $150-$160 per barrel allowing for normal refinery margins. These prices feed into every consumer product, if only through increasing logistical costs. Add to this factor impending food shortages due to a combination of a European drought cutting cereal yields up to half and vital Ukrainian harvest exports closed down by the closure of its Black Sea ports, and the impetus behind rising global wholesale and consumer prices is still badly underestimated.
The outlook is for a different type of crisis from any seen before. In the past, it has been the private sectors that have had to be rescued by governments. This time it is governments in trouble, but with no one to rescue them. And when government funding runs into the brick wall of ever-rising bond yields, it takes down private-sector activities with it.
It should become increasingly clear in the coming weeks that gold is the escape from escalating problems and rapidly rising risks associated with the global fiat currency regime. Higher bond yields are the wake-up call for complacent investors who fail to understand that rising gold and commodity prices reflect the decline in their own currency’s purchasing power and not speculation.
As an end note, our final chart shows what happened in the last significant oil crisis, which was in 1973-1974 when OPEC raised its reference prices in two steps:
There’s every reason to believe that this pattern is in the early stages of repetition today; in which case the dollar price of gold will probably double from here in a matter of not many months.
END
3.CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE//KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT/289
5. COMMODITY REPORT: DIESEL
Diesel Crunch Set To Worsen As Refining Capacity Falls Short, Industry Warns
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 10:10 PM
The global diesel market – already trading at record prices – is set to further tighten in the coming months and keep fuel prices high, raising the prices of all goods and threatening the inflation targets of the central banks.
Industry officials, who gathered at the APPEC petroleum conference in Singapore this week, warned that the market has not seen the worst of the diesel crisis yet. Analysts say the real stress in oil markets is in the diesel market right now, OilPrice reported.
Global fuel markets are very tight and inflexible, despite the higher crude oil flows out of the Persian Gulf in recent weeks, Russell Hardy, chief executive of the world’s biggest independent oil trader, Vitol Group, said on Tuesday.
“We’re still not running enough refining capacity to prevent those draws, and we keep eating into the surplus that exists around the world,” Hardy said at the event, as carried by Bloomberg.
Despite the uptick in flows from the Strait of Hormuz, only 1 million barrels per day (bpd) out of an estimated 10 million bpd outbound flows are refined products, the rest is crude.
Refinery capacity is constrained in the Middle East, due to Iranian strikes on refineries and the trickle of fuel flows through Hormuz.
Moreover, refinery capacity in Russia is also severely restricted by nearly-daily Ukrainian drone strikes at Russian refineries, while Russia has banned diesel exports until at least the end of September.
Refineries in the United States and elsewhere have been running at maximum capacity this summer, having delayed maintenance. But they are unlikely to continue operating at these elevated utilization rates for much longer.
If the global refining system can sustain these processing rates until the end of this year, “it is going to be an achievement,” Shaikh Khaled Ahmad Al Sabah, managing director for international marketing at Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC), told Bloomberg.
“I think we’re going to see a very difficult winter coming in Northwest Europe,” the executive said. “This is only the beginning.”
END
COMMODITIES: ALL THEM//JEFF CURRIE/CNBC
“Old Economy Is Taking Revenge”: Jeff Currie Warns Fuel Squeeze Is Driving Structural Inflation
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 04:15 AM
Former Goldman Sachs commodities chief and current Real Macro head Jeff Currie joined CNBC earlier Thursday to discuss all things commodities, warning that the latest Brent crude rally above $107 a barrel is becoming harder to dismiss as a temporary shock, with renewed Chinese buying and soaring refining margins (US diesel crack spread now $110 a barrel) signaling deeper pressure across physical commodity markets.
Currie warned that traders are underestimating an inflation cycle driven by years of underinvestment in the capacity to produce and deliver essential raw materials, echoing his summer warnings about scarcity in physical markets.
“The old economy is taking its revenge,” Currie said. “You see it in the rates markets. You see it in the commodity markets.”
Asked whether the latest flare-up in the Gulf conflict explained the jump in Brent crude this week, Currie pointed first to demand returning from Asia (read here).
“Actually, I put a bigger weight on China coming back to the market,” he said, citing strong buying interest after returning from Singapore and Hong Kong.
China had contributed to the refined-product squeeze by reducing refinery operations and exports as access to crude tightened earlier this summer, Currie explained. But exceptionally high diesel margins created a massive incentive to restart those those refineries, bringing renewed crude demand into an already strained market.
He cited diesel crack spreads of $110 a barrel, exceeding the price of crude itself. That figure refers to the refining spread, rather than the outright diesel price.
“That’s a pretty big profit,” Currie said. “They start chasing it, brought those refineries back online, and it was just like an earthquake going through here.”
The rally in Brent is showing signs of greater staying power, he pointed out, with equities and longer-dated oil prices beginning to reflect a more persistent disruption.
“People are starting to go, ‘This is not transient,'” Currie said. “It has a different flavor to it.”
Complimenting Currie’s bull thesis on commodities, HSBC chief economist for global commodities Paul Bloxh warned in a note this week that a “super-squeeze” has begun (read report).
END
JEFF CURRIE: FROM BLOOMBERG
Jeff Currie Warns Odds Of $5 Gas By Midterms Are “Extremely High”
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 08:54 AM
Summary:
- Jeff Currie Goes On Fin TV Roadshow
Jeff Currie Featured on BBG TV
Veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie has spent the summer warning that scarcity in physical commodity markets is becoming a persistent source of inflationary pressure and giving way to a commodities supercycle.
After appearing on CNBC on Thursday, he joined Bloomberg Television on Friday morning to amp up that message, warning that tightening crude products supplies make $5-a-gallon US gasoline highly likely by November.
“Crude is the signal, and now we think about products … they are the noise,” Currie said.
Currie, the founder and chief executive of Real Macro and former Goldman commodities head, also warned that scarcity and currency debasement were driving the next phase of the energy shock, with shortages spreading from refined products into crude oil.
Currie described the probability of average US gasoline prices reaching $5 a gallon by the midterm elections as “extremely high.”
Currie warned that refiners shifting production between diesel and gasoline would eventually exhaust their operational flexibility, limiting their ability to relieve shortages. US diesel prices could reach $7 to $9 a gallon, he added.
The latest AAA data show the national average price of diesel in the US has topped $6 a gallon.
US Diesel Crack Spread
Morning coverage:
- Brent Nears $110 Then Tumbles On IEA Demand Destruction Warning As Houthis Threaten Saudi Oil Escape Route, Diesel Shock Goes Global
- Huge Fire Along Saudi ‘Hormuz Bypass’ East-West Oil Pipeline After Alleged Houthi Strikes
Commodities coverage:
Got physical?
REPEAT CURRIE ON CNBC;
Jeff Currie Featured on CNBC TV
Former Goldman Sachs commodities chief and current Real Macro head Jeff Currie joined CNBC earlier Thursday to discuss all things commodities, warning that the latest Brent crude rally above $107 a barrel is becoming harder to dismiss as a temporary shock, with renewed Chinese buying and soaring refining margins (US diesel crack spread now $110 a barrel) signaling deeper pressure across physical commodity markets.
Currie warned that traders are underestimating an inflation cycle driven by years of underinvestment in the capacity to produce and deliver essential raw materials, echoing his summer warnings about scarcity in physical markets.
“The old economy is taking its revenge,” Currie said. “You see it in the rates markets. You see it in the commodity markets.”
Asked whether the latest flare-up in the Gulf conflict explained the jump in Brent crude this week, Currie pointed first to demand returning from Asia (read here).
“Actually, I put a bigger weight on China coming back to the market,” he said, citing strong buying interest after returning from Singapore and Hong Kong.
China had contributed to the refined-product squeeze by reducing refinery operations and exports as access to crude tightened earlier this summer, Currie explained. But exceptionally high diesel margins created a massive incentive to restart those refineries, bringing renewed crude demand into an already strained market.
He cited diesel crack spreads of $110 a barrel, exceeding the price of crude itself. That figure refers to the refining spread, rather than the outright diesel price.
“That’s a pretty big profit,” Currie said. “They start chasing it, brought those refineries back online, and it was just like an earthquake going through here.”
The rally in Brent is showing signs of greater staying power, he pointed out, with equities and longer-dated oil prices beginning to reflect a more persistent disruption.
“People are starting to go, ‘This is not transient,'” Currie said. “It has a different flavor to it.”
Complementing Currie’s bull thesis on commodities, HSBC chief economist for global commodities Paul Bloxh warned in a note this week that a “super-squeeze” has begun (read report).
end
COMMODITY COAL:
Coal Nears Breakout As Gulf Energy Shock Drives Utilities Back To Dirty Fuel Ahead Of Winter
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 02:30 PM
Newcastle thermal coal futures are approaching the $150-a-ton breakout level as the global energy shock, most acute in industrial fuels, encourages utilities to shift toward coal ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter while electrification trends and all things AI expand electricity demand.
UBS metals and mining analyst Myles Allsop wrote in a note this week that thermal coal prices face a number of factors colliding at once that could push prices higher over the next few months:
We see a number of risks that could drive up thermal coal prices over next few months, with 1) demand supported by a hot summer (increasing demand for cooling), the high gas price (due to the ME conflict) and potentially a cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere due to the ‘super El Niño’ (conditions to peak in Dec), and 2) supply at risk from Chinese safety checks, Indonesian government policy, Russian diesel shortages, and potentially weather-related disruption, e.g. droughts and water shortages.
We note that most of these factors would be short-term and think the market should return to balance from March.
Geographically:
China: Imports of seaborne coal rose to 24Mt in Jul-26, ~3Mt higher than the 1H average. The Shanxi accident in May triggered a round of safety inspections across the coal industry, with raw coal production falling to its lowest level in 58 months in Jul-26, with imports (of low-CV Indonesian and AU coal) rising and domestic coal prices recovering; we see potential for the market to remain disrupted for the next 3-6 months (LINK).
India: Imports have been subdued due to monsoon-weakened power demand and pro-domestic coal policy; however, low plant stocks and post-monsoon industrial restocking should support renewed demand for SA and US coal from Sept.
Indonesia: Thermal coal exports are estimated at 38Mt in Jul-26, down from ~40Mt in June due to supply constraints (tightening production quotas under the RKAB framework and stricter enforcement of 25% DMO, LINK) and logistical bottlenecks (low water levels along the Barito River in Central Kalimantan disrupting barging). We note the bottlenecks should ease with the onset of the rainy season in Sept.
JKT: In Japan, thermal generation has stepped up due to the heatwave and a nuclear outage (Tonati #3 due to restart in Aug-26), while Taiwan has maintained adequate LNG supply (despite the restart of two retired 600MW units); in South Korea the five state-owned utilities are being merged into one entity, with coal purchasing set to shift towards more long-term contracts (from spot).
Europe: Higher gas prices (Fig72) support coal power demand but low water levels on the Rhine have limited coal shipments and resulted in higher ARA inventories.
Russia: Coal railings have lifted 12% y/y in Jul YTD (eastbound +20%) while overall production is slightly lower y/y, with diesel availability/cost challenges; prices have strengthened due to disruption of supply of flows through the Black Sea.
More color:
Iron ore prices rose ~$1/t this week to ~$100/t, in line with higher freight rates (AU-CH now ~$19/t and BR-CH ~$41/t vs $9/t and ~$23/t in Jan/Feb; Fig34) and destocking at ports; on a FOB basis, iron ore prices are close to ~18-month lows (Fig31). Fundamentals remain challenging, with shipments strong so far in 2026, while demand is soft.
On the key signals: 1) Iron ore port inventories in China are down w/w to ~150Mt (Fig26), although we note >60% of these support blending and mill inventories, and are not available for spot purchases; iron ore inventories at steel mills (Fig30) have increased w/w and above usual seasonality trends; 2) Iron ore shipments from traditional markets (Fig2) are up +2% so far in 2026; ramp-up of the Simandou project in Guinea represents a meaningful near-term risk to iron ore supply – Simandou shipments stepped up in August to a run-rate of ~35Mtpa after a softer July (Fig8); 3) BF utilisation rates are broadly stable YTD based on MySteel data (Fig16), while steel production in China is down ~3% in January-July based on NBS (Fig20) and CISA data (Fig12); 4) Steel exports from China in January-July are down ~4% YTD (Fig21); 5) Net short positioning on the Dalian has rebuilt moderately since collapsing at the end of July (Fig40).
Investing theme:
We have Neutral ratings on Vale, BHP, RIO and FMG, and a Sell on KIO; we estimate spot 2027 FCF yields of 4% for BHP, 7% for RIO and 9% for Vale (interactive model).
Separately, the International Energy Agency said this week that it now expects coal demand to rise 1.2% to 8.94 billion tons in 2026. At the end of last year, it had projected a modest drop this year followed by further declines through 2030.
The IEA identified gas-to-coal switching in China, South Korea, Japan and Europe, showing how a Gulf supply shock is reshaping electricity generation far beyond the region, especially in Europe where natural gas prices have topped 80 euros per megawatt-hour.
Who’s Got The Coal?
Given that the energy shock has been most acute in diesel, we suspect the current squeeze ahead of winter shows how quickly coal can regain ground when competing industrial fuels become scarce or expensive.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 46.29 PTS OR 1.18%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 195.97 PTS OR 0.79%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 1220.95 PTS OR 1.87%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.18%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 6.7097
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.7093 Oil DOWN TO 100.63 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 104.68 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING DOWN (6.7097 OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.7093 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS WEAKER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 6.7093
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 6.7097
1.HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 195.97 PTS OR 0.79%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 1220.95 PTS OR 1.87%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL DOWN TO 100.63
BRENT; 104.68
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP 6 BASIS PTS TO 99.11// EURO FALLS TO 1.1603 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.986 UP 7 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 154.30… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.056 UP 6 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWWN (6.7095) AND OFFSHORE: DOWN AT 6.7097
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA. CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. GOVERMENT ASKED JAPAN PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE FUNDS TO BUY MORE JAPANESE BONDS AND REPATRIATE ALL FOREIGN BONDS.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN for Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields HIGHER on all fronts in the EU German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +3.5026/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP AT 4.368/ SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.961%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 4.2371%
3j Gold at $4350.00/Silver at: 64.15 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 40/ 100 roubles/84.35
3m oil (WTI) into the 100 dollar handle for WTI and 104 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 154.30 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.986% UP 7 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS TO BE REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 4.056 UP 6 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.8135 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9443
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.9450 UP 0 BASIS PTS…DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 5.00%
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.359 UP 0 BASIS PTS/REFUSES TO GO DOWN WITH BESSENT’S QE TWIST
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.562 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 48.61 UP 11 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.3418 DOWN 4 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.8981 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.950 UP 10 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.6450 UP 16 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Rise As Oil Prices Drop Ahead Of CPI Report
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 08:28 AM
Futures are higher thanks to an overnight retreat in oil prices (which is unlikely to hold now that Houthi rebels effectively control the entire Red Sea) and bond yields which track oil tick for tick, but the tone could quickly shift with the week’s biggest catalyst, August CPI data, due before the cash open. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures gain 0.6% with Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher, led by AMZN (+0.6%) and META (+0.7%). In premarket trading, ORCL rose 7% as its AI cloud backlog beat estimates. MSFT is planning to more than triple its data center capacity to ease computing shortages. WTI crude fell 3% overnight amid the report that Gulf states are weighing a meeting with Iranian officials to discuss the future of the Strait, the first gathering since the war began more than six months ago. Oil is on track for a 8% jump since Monday, and the International Energy Agency warned higher prices would hit consumption. Bond yields are 1-3bp lower although they remain sticky near 3 year highs: 2Y and 10Y yields are 3.2bp and 2.4bp lower, respectively. While the meeting itself was net positive for risk assets, the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, particularly regarding renewed developments in Yemen, as Houthi rebels seize a key Yemeni port city and struck Saudi oil infrastructure. US retail diesel prices topped $6 a gallon for the first time. Commodities are mostly lower except for precious metals. All eyes are on CPI at 8:30 am ET. We also get the September preliminary UMich sentiment (10 a.m.), 2Q household change in net worth (12 p.m.) and August federal budget balance (2 p.m.). Fed speakers remain in external communications blackout period ahead of Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting
In premarket trading, Mag 7 are mostly higher (Nvidia +0.7%, Amazon +0.7%, Meta +1.1%, Alphabet +0.5%, Tesla -0.2%, Microsoft +0.3%, Apple -0.06%)
- Adobe (ADBE) falls 4% after the company gave an outlook for sales that narrowly missed analysts’ estimates, adding fuel to concerns that artificial intelligence upstarts are hurting the software maker’s business.
- Copart (CPRT) rises 4% as the vehicle auction firm is set to acquire all outstanding shares of ACV Auctions for $10.50 per share in cash. ACV (ACVA) surges 44%.
- Kroger (KR) slips 2% after the company trimmed its annual sales guidance, a sign that fierce competition for grocery spending is weighing on the retailer.
- NuScale Power (SMR) falls 4% after UBS cut its recommendation on the small modular reactor company to sell, citing sees increased competition.
- Oracle (ORCL) gains 6% after the software company’s results featured better-than-expected cloud revenue amid strong AI demand.
In other corporate news, OpenAI is considering slowing down the development of cutting-edge artificial intelligence, with CEO Sam Altman hoping other AI companies will do the same. activist investor Oasis Capital has nominated directors at Vail Resorts in preparation for a proxy fight, Semafor reports. Tesla China launched the new Model Y Performance All-Wheel Drive version, with a starting price of 369,000 yuan ($54,975). In deals, online vehicle auctioneer Copart is making its largest-ever acquisition in the shape of ACV Auctions, a digital marketplace to buy and sell cars, for $1.9 billion in an all-cash transaction. Billionaire financiers Mark Walter and Todd Boehly are nearing a deal to sell their stakes in Chelsea FC to majority owner Clearlake Capital.
After surging yields and a rally in crude left the S&P 500 facing its worst week since June, index futures rebounded 0.5% as WTI crude fell 3% overnight amid the report that Gulf states are weighing a meeting with Iranian officials to discuss the future of the Strait. Oracle Corp. jumped 6% in early trading as its data center bets showed signs of paying off.
The AI trade got renewed optimism in the form of Oracle and Microsoft overnight. Oracle’s cloud infrastructure revenue jumped +121% to $7.4 billion, beating estimates. Microsoft’s announcement of plans to more than triple data center capacity to 38 gigawatts by 2032 will give AI infrastructure bulls fresh ammunition. Second derivative improvements in Oracle’s slowing rate of change of free cash flow losses (-$5 billion versus the Street at around double the burn) on healthy operating cash flow (+184% to $23 billion) provides some relief. Meanwhile, Oracle’s ability to charge more for aging GPUs challenges fears that rapid obsolescence will erode hyperscaler returns.
There are some cracks in the AI narrative. Ramp AI highlights that AI spend declined in August among the top 1% of businesses investing in the technology. Adobe’s guidance miss resurrects questions about AI monetization for software incumbents. Anthropic’s monthly report describing misuses of its AI model shows it blocked possible efforts to build biological weapons
Traders are bracing for Friday’s inflation print at a time when worries over oil-driven price pressures have pushed global bond yields to the highest in years. Money markets price a 67% chance of a Fed hike next week. Economists expect the consumer price index to have risen 0.4% in August, an acceleration from a month earlier, due in part to higher gasoline costs (our full preview is here). Bloomberg Economics expects to see firmer core PCE forecasts after the CPI print, raising the odds of a Fed rate hike next week, after the PPI components feeding into the PCE deflator came in well above expectations yesterday.
“We had the Oracle numbers as a reminder that there’s a tech story that’s still very, very vibrant,” said Guy Miller at Zurich Insurance. “That’s what investors keep coming back to. We know for at least the next two quarters that earnings are going to be really robust.”
August’s CPI report is probably the most anticipated in years, with Fed policymakers — particularly Waller — signaling that the decision at next week’s FOMC meeting hinges on evidence that inflation is moderating. Bloomberg Economics leans “slightly toward the Fed holding rates steady at the September meeting. But it will be a very close call.” That said, as Goldman trader Brian Bingham lays out, Warsh is facing a bit of a dilemma
“The Fed is now in the most paradoxical of all positions, beholden to a single data print and potentially reactive to the rounding on the ECO screen… Warsh told the market in his first press conference that he didn’t want to focus on the number to the right of the decimal point, but now it’s the number to the right of that one that will be the determinant. Waller’s speech on Thursday was surprisingly and overtly dovish, confirming our view that the Board skews heavily if not unanimously dovish relative to the regional presidents, but offered little new information beyond implicitly confirming a 30bp core CPI will merit a hike. The market appears to be penciling the over/under at 25, but we struggle to see a meaningful rally on an in-line 20bp core print following this week’s jobs report; in a world where the meeting goes in pricing greater than 50% chance of a hike, the risk of the bond market interpreting a hold as a policy error seem far greater than the harm of hiking into above-target inflation.”
Elsewhere, BofA strategists note there’s no sign of “panic anywhere” despite the spike in bond yields and commodities. The pace of flows into global equities is slowing, with US stock funds registering their biggest three-week outflows since January at $14.2 billion. For the current bull market in stocks, the fear is a full-fledged hiking cycle, not a single move.
The Stoxx 600 is gaining 0.6% to staunch three days of losses. Banks, insurers and telecoms stocks are leading the way.Here are the biggest movers Friday:
- Trainline shares climb as much as 8.8% after the train ticket retailer reported strong results in its first-half trading update. The group reiterated its revenue forecast for the full year and announced a new buyback
- C&C shares rise as much as 8.9%, the most since 2022, after the alcoholic beverage maker delivered in-line interim results and said it is buying Asahi UK’s wholesale businesses. Analysts said the deal should provide scale
- Everplay Group shares soar as much as 14%, hitting their highest level since February, after a strong launch of the video game company’s latest title, Wardogs, according to analysts
- Omnia shares jump as much as 14%, hitting their highest level since 2017, after the fertilizer and chemicals maker said it’s in advanced discussions regarding a potential offer for all of its issued ordinary shares
- GEA Group shares rise as much as 1.8% as the German machinery firm is upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Barclays, which touts it as a high quality business with a compelling valuation
- Novo Nordisk shares fall as much as 3.3%, hitting a three-month low, after the obesity drug giant was downgraded at Morgan Stanley. Analysts believe its valuation does not reflect “subdued” mid-term growth prospects
- FlatexDEGIRO shares fall as much as 11% after the German online brokerage announced that the chairman of its supervisory board had resigned
- Applied Nutrition shares drop as much as 5% after the protein-powder maker’s chief executive and chief operating officer offloaded shares at a discount to the last close. The shares remain above the offer price
- Chemometec declines as much as 11%, the most in three weeks, after the Danish laboratory equipment firm reported its latest earnings and announced its latest guidance
Markets in Asia echoed Thursday’s US moves. Asian stocks slumped as US bond yields climbed to their highest levels since 2023 and rising oil prices weighed on risk appetite. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.9%, led by South Korea and Taiwan. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics were among the biggest decliners after DeepSeek said it managed to reduce the amount of high-bandwidth memory needed for its latest model, stoking worries about the outlook for semiconductor demand. A gauge of Asian chip stocks is poised for its biggest drop in three weeks. Investors are looking ahead to Friday’s US consumer-price report for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path, with rising bond yields and oil prices adding to market concerns. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down 0.7% this week, on track for its biggest weekly drop in almost two months. Attention is also turning to upcoming central bank decisions in the region. The Bank of Japan is due to announce its monetary policy decision on Sept. 18, while Taiwan’s central bank is scheduled to decide on rates next week.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remains muted, with the New Zealand dollar the outperformer among major currencies as the rise in oil prices firmed up bets on rate hikes.
In rates, treasuries hold modest gains led by short tenors ahead of August CPI data at 8:30 am ET time as oil prices fall for the first day this week. Front-end yields are about 3bp lower on the day after tenors across the curve reached new YTD highs. US yields are at least 1bp richer across the curve with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads steeper by 0.5bp and 1bp. 10-year is around 4.94%, less than 2bp richer on the day, trailing UK counterpart by 2bps. German yield curve leads global steepening move with front-end yields more than 5bp lower on the day. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far and unlikely to grow because of risk posed by the CPI report; six offerings totaling $6.3 billion were priced Thursday, with borrowers paying about 5bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.3 times oversubscribed
In commodities, oil prices are down more than 3% after the International Energy Agency warned about a deteriorating outlook for consumption. WTI crude oil futures are down 3.2% near session lows. Gold is rising, having come close to dipping below $4,300/oz. Diesel prices rose above $6 a gallon for the first time ever, raising the risk of further energy-driven inflation just ahead of peak demand season for the workhorse fuel of the global economy. Inflationary pressures showed up in corporate earnings with National Beverage saying results were hurt by higher packaging and ingredient costs.
The US economic data slate includes August CPI (8:30 a.m., September preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (10 a.m.), 2Q household change in net worth (12 p.m.) and August federal budget balance (2 p.m.). Fed speakers remain in external communications blackout period ahead of Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- The lightning Houthi advance down Yemen’s Red Sea coast this week came with direct guidance from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards seeking to open a new front in Iran’s war with the U.S., according to Yemeni government, Iranian and regional sources. By seizing the southwestern port city of Mocha, the Houthis have strengthened their chokehold on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key waterway whose disruption further constricts global energy supplies after Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters
- Iran and GCC states are considering meeting next week for talks on the Strait of Hormuz, people familiar said. The Houthis advanced toward coastal areas near the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Oil retreated. BBG
- US average retail diesel prices topped $6 a gallon for the first time, adding to price pressures ahead of peak demand season. BBG
- Fund managers wading back into South Korean memory makers’ stocks got a fresh gut check after DeepSeek’s latest artificial intelligence model raised doubts on the strength of demand. SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. shares dipped 2.2% and 3.5% each in Asia, paring their nascent rebound from July’s steep selloff. DeepSeek’s comment that it has reduced the amount of high-bandwidth memory required in its AI models.
- “Oracle’s GPU renewal pricing averaged 20% higher, highlighting the industry’s supply-demand imbalance and supporting Oracle’s and other cloud peers’ infrastructure outlook”. “The company’s commitment to keep fiscal 2027 funding needs unchanged also stands out despite a sequential $26 billion rise in remaining performance obligations to $664 billion”. BBG
- Japan’s finance minister said Scott Bessent referring to himself as “the house” sounded “scary” when translated into Japanese. The US Treasury Secretary clarified his remark, saying he was trying to give the market “good framing so that they don’t panic.” BBG
- Sanae Takaichi’s push for a more assertive military with US support will be tested as voters in Japan’s Okinawa pick a governor Sunday. Anger over US bases is overshadowed by worries about China. BBG
- European Central Bank officials expect to raise interest rates further, with another increase possible as soon as next month. While policymakers’ views will continue to hinge on incoming economic data, tighter monetary policy may be required to contain inflation that’s stuck above 3%, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private conversations. BBG
- Trump reiterated a pledge to provide a USD 5,000 Trump dividend to adults if Republicans win the Midterms and will make Trump tax cuts permanent, while he separately commented that the Trump dividend won’t be a big problem at all and that he is doing it as a reward and not for the vote.
- Trump said in a recorded interview with Fox News that they’re going to take care of USD 40tln debt through growth, while he spoke with Johnson and Thune regarding USD 5,000 dividends.
- Bessent said they have the best-performing bond market in the world and will get to the other side of the energy supply shock, while he added that the Treasury market is in very good shape and term premium is at the lowest differential in many years. Bessent stated regarding the Treasury buyback operation that they didn’t buy back as many as he said, because they buy cheap.
- Pentagon is in talks to get into AI infrastructure funding with a USD 5bln loan: WSJ.
- Goldman expects a 0.23% increase in August core CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.40% (vs. +2.4% consensus). GS expects a 0.39% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.4% consensus), reflecting higher energy prices.
- Net and gross hedge-fund leverage remains well below this year’s highs, according to our Prime Services desk, suggesting positioning remains relatively cautious. Goldman Prime Brokerage
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk
APAC stocks were pressured with global risk sentiment weighed by a further surge in oil prices and upside in yields, as the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East threatens shipping in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, while there were social media reports citing satellite images that suggested a potential strike by Houthis on Saudi’s East-West pipeline. ASX 200 declined amid higher yields, with the Australian 3yr yield at its highest in over 15 years, while Citi revised its call and now sees two more rate hikes by the RBA this year. Nikkei 225 underperformed owing to higher oil prices and yields, while participants also brace for a widely expected BoJ rate hike next week. KOSPI was dragged lower amid tech-related pressure, with notable losses in the industry heavyweights. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad risk-off mood in the region, with underperformance seen in miners, while recent comments from PBoC Deputy Lu Lei that they will refine the RRR framework and conduct open-market operations more flexibly and precisely failed to provide inspiration, with today’s OMO remaining at an inconsequential amount.
Top Asian News
- The Japanese Trade delegation is reportedly preparing a China visit in September, according to Kyodo.
- Fitch assigns Softbank (9984 JT) a “BB+” rating; outlook stable.
European bourses are modestly firmer this morning (STOXX 600 +0.4%), benefiting from falling energy prices and cooling yields. For the UK specifically, the FTSE 100 (+0.5%) is largely unreactive to a strong GDP reading for July. But ultimately it will have little impact on the BoE next week, which is expected to keep rates on hold. European sectors hold a slight positive bias. Banks, Insurance and Telecoms form the top three; Tech, Basic Resources and Chemicals underperform.
Top European News
- The French Finance Minister said the government has lowered the 2026 GDP forecast to 0.5% (prev. 0.7%), sees 2027 GDP at 1%, and that debt service costs are seen at EUR 65bln (EUR 4.5bln above original plans).
- ECB’s Moulin said France is not in economic danger. The heatwaves cost the economy 0.1ppts of growth, and the economy will restart at a moderate pace.
- BoE/Savanta Quarterly Attitude Survey (Aug): 1-year ahead 3.2% (prev. 4%), 2-year ahead 2.9% (prev. 3.5%), 5-year ahead 3.2% (prev. 3.9%).
FX
- Snapshot: G10s are mixed against the USD this morning. NZD is the clear outperformer, as traders increased their bets of further hikes at the RBNZ, with markets now pricing in four hikes at the Bank. Elsewhere, the CHF lags a touch.
- USD is steady and trades within a 99.00 to 99.17 range. Thursday saw the release of a mixed PPI report, which ultimately spurred little reaction in the USD. But the Dollar did strengthen in the prior session on account of higher yields. Focus today is solely on the CPI report, which will be a decisive factor into the Fed policy meeting next week. A benign report showing continued progress on underlying inflation would strengthen the case for the Fed to remain on hold, particularly given Waller’s stated reaction function. Conversely, a hot report or evidence that disinflation is reversing would likely reinforce expectations for a 25bp hike.
- EUR is flat this morning and holding within a 1.1595 to 1.1617 range, in the aftermath of the ECB policy decision on Thursday. Thereafter, ECB source reports suggested that officials expect more tightening this year, with the debate potentially as soon as October. As such, sell-side banks have broadly pulled forward their bets of another hike at the ECB; the likes of Citi, Barclays and UBS see another round of tightening in December. Interestingly, Danske Bank believes that the Bank will deliver two 25bps hikes, each in October and December.
- JPY is slightly firmer this morning, with USD/JPY holding around 154.20, in a 153.96 to 154.61 range. Overnight, a Reuters source report reiterated that the BoJ will raise rates next week, and potentially signal its readiness to speed up hikes. The report, alongside some scaling back of the pressure seen in the prior session, has helped the Yen this morning. The next hurdle for the currency will be US CPI, where a hot report will likely see yield differentials widen once again.
- GBP is currently flat, but did see some mild upside following a strong GDP report earlier. In July, the UK economy grew 0.4% (exp. 0.00%), largely thanks to a boost in AI. While the data signals economic resilience, it is unlikely to alter expectations for next Thursday’s BoE policy decision. It does, however, provide the MPC’s hawks with ammunition to argue for tighter policy.
Fixed Income
- Global fixed income benchmarks have steadily climbed off earlier lows, as energy prices ease off best levels.
- USTs (+1 tick) reside at the upper end of its 106-04+ to 106-14+ range, with the US CPI on the docket later today. Yields remain towards elevated levels (US 10yr 4.94%), and a hot inflation report today will likely give the 10-year enough of a reason to breach the 5.00% mark; a level not seen since Oct’23.
- Bunds (-1 tick) pare some of Thursday’s losses, with the 10yr yield holding around 3.50% in the aftermath of the ECB policy meeting and the surge in energy prices. To recap, the ECB meeting was largely as expected, with nothing to significantly shift market pricing as we await further data and energy developments. Thereafter, ECB source reports suggested that officials expect more tightening this year, with the debate potentially as soon as October.
- Gilts (+28 ticks) opened slightly higher, in line with their peers. Strength which comes amidst cooler energy prices, though despite a strong UK GDP report. The UK economy continues to show resilience despite higher energy prices, with July GDP printing at 0.4% (exp. 0%) while the 3-month average also held steady at 0.4% (exp. 0.3%). Manufacturing and industrial production figures were also solid. This set of data is unlikely to change expectations for the BoE rate decision next Thursday.
- Australia sells AUD 800mln 2.75% November 2029 bonds: b/c 4.47x, avg. yield 5.0396.
Commodities
- WTI and Brent futures pull back slightly following a week of hefty gains on the back of escalating geopolitics. The downside today comes amid reports that Iran and Gulf states are planning to meet, pushing to iron out a deal for the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, sources suggested Iran’s Foreign Minister and Pakistan’s Army Chief reportedly discussed ways to restore diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict on all fronts. Talks reportedly focused on the US-Iran war, the possibility of returning to negotiations and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Modest downside was seen in crude prices after the IEA slashed its 2026 world oil demand forecast.
- WTI Oct resides in a USD 99.50–104.46/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 95.37–104.04/bbl range) compared to Monday’s USD 90.87–94.73/bbl range. Brent Nov trades in a USD 103.85–109.97/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 100.19–109.68/bbl range) and compared to Monday’s USD 95.97–98.06/bbl band. Dutch TTF has also pulled back from EUR 83/MWh intraday extremes before finding support just under EUR 80/MWh, oscillating on either side of the level. It’s also worth noting that US diesel prices hit a record USD 6.06 per gallon, with California approaching USD 8 per gallon.
- Metals are mixed, with precious metals cheering a slight pullback in oil prices, whilst base metals remain capped amid elevated energy levels. Spot gold trades on either side of its 100 DMA (USD 4,336/oz) in a current USD 4,300-4,361/oz range (vs USD 4,433/oz weekly high). 3M LME copper resides in a narrow USD 14,170.78- 14,356.00/t range at the time of writing.
- IEA OMR: 2026 world oil demand to fall by 2.5mln BPD (vs prev. forecast of a 1.6mln BPD fall), citing impasse in US-Iran talks on resolving their conflict; sees total world oil supply 1.74mln BPD lower than demand in 2026 (vs prev. forecast of 1.27mln BPD lower); now sees full recovery in oil supplies from Gulf producers deferred until 2027; the need for progress in resolving Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts is greater than ever to avoid further oil market tightening.
- US retail diesel price tops USD 6 per gallon, according to AAA.
- US Interior Secretary Burgum said every idea is on the table when asked about diesel export controls.
- China’s NDRC raised gasoline and diesel prices by CNY 435/t and CNY 420/t respectively, effective September 11th.
Trade/Tariffs
- Canadian PM Carney said the latest US trade measures against Canada are modest and he reiterated that Canada is always ready to sit down and negotiate with the US.
- South Korea’s PM Han said talks on strategic investment projects with the US are progressing, and that the government will ease regulations and improve conditions for foreign investment. Han added that South Korea does not discriminate against companies based on nationality, and that US strategic investment talks must deliver mutual benefits and commercial returns.
Central Banks
- The French Finance Minister said the government has lowered the 2026 GDP forecast to 0.5% (prev. 0.7%), sees 2027 GDP at 1%, and that debt service costs are seen at EUR 65bln (EUR 4.5bln above original plans).
- ECB’s Moulin said France is not in economic danger. The heatwaves cost the economy 0.1ppts of growth, and the economy will restart at a moderate pace.
- BoE/Savanta Quarterly Attitude Survey (Aug): 1-year ahead 3.2% (prev. 4%), 2-year ahead 2.9% (prev. 3.5%), 5-year ahead 3.2% (prev. 3.9%).
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Gulf Foreign Ministers plan to meet with their Iranian counterpart in an effort by Oman and Iran to secure a deal on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to FT.
- US President Trump said Iran has some missiles, but most were knocked out, while he maybe won’t go full into Iran because of the election. Trump also stated that the Iran war will end after the US midterm elections and that Iran is waiting for political change in America.
- US VP Vance privately sought assessments from US military commanders who warned that the Iran war was draining critical stockpiles of Patriot interceptors and long-range missiles, and could weaken US deterrence against China, Russia and North Korea, NYT reported. It added that commanders told Vance that Iran was more resilient than expected and willing to absorb heavy damage without collapsing, prompting Vance to advise President Trump and become more involved in efforts to end the conflict.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they are going to sanction a large bank on Monday.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister and Pakistan’s Army Chief reportedly discussed ways to restore diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict on all fronts, according to sources. The talks were focused on the US-Iran war, the possibility of returning to negotiations and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.
- Al Jazeera reported the entirety of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline is now under Houthi control. It was later reported that the Houthis captured Dhabab and that Yemeni government forces have reportedly withdrawn from Peim Island.
- Iranian sources said that Tehran ordered the Houthis last week to intensify attacks on Saudi Arabia and promised to provide more funding, weapons and senior officers, according to Iran International. Furthermore, Yemen military sources said the IRGC directed a recent Houthi campaign along the Red Sea coast.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said that he does not support the continuation of the war, and Iran must withstand the coming circumstances so that negotiations with the “enemy” are not under other conditions, Al Jazeera reported.
- Saudi Crown Prince MBS called President Trump twice on Thursday, urging him to launch strikes against Houthis, but Trump declined, and US officials stressed the administration has no plans to intervene directly against the Houthis for now, according to Axios.
- Houthis launched a missile attack on southern Saudi Arabia, according to IRNA.
- UAE is reportedly revising plans for its 5GW AI campus following Iranian attacks, according to sources.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- The European Commission resumed work on options that could persuade governments in the bloc to approve the use of Russia’s frozen assets for Ukraine, according to FT.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Aug CPI MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.1%
- 8:30 am: Aug Core CPI MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
- 8:30 am: Aug CPI YoY, est. 3.4%, prior 3.4%
- 8:30 am: Aug Core CPI YoY, est. 2.4%, prior 2.5%
- 10:00 am Sep P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 51, prior 51.7
- 2:00 pm: Aug Federal Budget Balance, est. -211.1b, prior -344.79b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
It’s hard to believe it but it’s 25 years today since the attacks of 11 September 2001. I was on holiday in Spain at the time and watched the events unfold on a small television in disbelief. I remember the horrendous shock of seeing the towers that I had visited clients in only weeks before collapse. I also remember selfishly wondering how I would get home, whether people would ever work in high-rise buildings again, and feeling that the world was going to change forever.
Time tends to push life back towards normality more quickly than you expect. Yet it’s also fair to say that many of the geopolitical forces shaping the world today can be traced back to those attacks. And with no obvious end to the US-Iran conflict in sight, markets continued to slump yesterday as fears about stagflation cascaded across multiple asset classes.
Yet again, the main driver was a big jump in energy prices, with Brent crude surging above $107/bbl, whilst European natural gas (+3.53%) hit its highest level since 2022. So that led to mounting speculation about faster rate hikes, while a hawkish ECB decision and a smaller-than-signaled Treasury buyback then gave the selloff even more momentum. As a result, the relentless rise in yields showed no sign of easing, with Germany’s 2yr yield (+16.6bps) posting its biggest daily jump since the debt brake reform announcement 18 months ago, while 10yr Treasury yields (+12.2bps) neared the 5% level. So it was another terrible day for bonds, and that put further pressure on risk assets too, with the S&P 500 (-0.58%) posting a 4th consecutive decline for the first time since June. The cross-asset sell off has continued into Asian markets this morning, with the Nikkei (-2.24%) and KOSPI (-1.85%) sharply lower and 10yr JGB yields +6.7bps higher even as 10yr US yields, US equity futures and oil are fairly stable as we await today’s important US CPI.
Once again, it is geopolitical fears driving everything. In terms of the latest Middle East headlines, yesterday saw growing concerns over the safety of Red Sea shipping, and the potential knock-on effects for Saudi oil exports, as Houthi rebels captured Yemen’s port city of Mokha, which is located close to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on the southern end of the Red Sea. The mood also wasn’t helped by news that Saudi Arabia’s oil output has fallen to its lowest since 1990. Beyond that, investors continued to digest the newsflow over recent days which has suggested that the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen anytime soon. For instance, President Trump’s own remarks on Wednesday night suggested he thought the war was going to end after the midterm elections in November. Meanwhile, a WSJ report we mentioned yesterday said that White House advisers had privately raised the prospect with Trump that the war could continue for the rest of his term.
With no signs of de-escalation, investors faced up to a longer closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices saw a relentless surge higher. For instance, Brent crude (+6.34%) ended the session at $107.63/bbl, its highest level since May, whilst WTI (+6.69%) was also up to $102.48/bbl. Moreover, the entire oil futures curve moved higher, with the 6-month Brent future (+3.21%) also at its highest since May, at $88.85/bbl. So it was clear investors are pricing a more protracted period of high energy prices. And the tightness has been even more pronounced in refined product markets, with US wholesale diesel prices trading within 1% of their 2022 peak this morning.
That backdrop was cemented by the ECB’s latest decision, which had several hawkish elements. They delivered a 25bp rate hike as expected, taking their deposit rate up to 2.50%. But the statement had a new line that “inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period”, and ECB President Lagarde called the hike “a no brainer”. In addition, their latest forecasts also moved hawkishly, with both inflation and growth upgraded for the years ahead. Most notably, the 2028 core inflation forecast was revised up two-tenths to +2.3%, so price pressures are seen staying visibly above the 2% target throughout the forecast horizon. The statement language on growth and the labour market was also more upbeat.
To be fair, ECB President Lagarde’s Q&A didn’t really reinforce the hawkishness, as she said that the Governing Council was not taking a view on the direction of policy going forward and avoided endorsing market pricing. However, this did little to stem the hawkish market repricing which then extended further after a Bloomberg sources story reported that another ECB hike was possible as soon as October, even if December may prove more appropriate. This left money markets fully pricing another three hikes from the ECB over the next year. Still, our European economists’ maintain their call for only one more hike in December to 2.75%, as further hikes may be difficult to justify when there is no evidence of second round effects.
The combination of higher energy prices and a hawkish ECB put fresh pressure on sovereign bonds across the board. In Europe, that was particularly clear at the front end, with Germany’s 2yr yield (+16.6bps) up to 3.23%, marking its biggest daily jump since March 2025 when the debt brake reforms were announced. That was clear further out the curve too, with the 10yr bund yield (+5.6bps) finally exceeding its Euro crisis high in 2011 to close at 3.50%, a level last seen in 2009. And there were even bigger selloffs in other European countries, with France’s 10yr OAT yield (+9.8bps) reaching a post-2008 high of 4.44%, whilst the UK’s 10yr gilt yield (+11.2bps) hit a post-2007 high of 5.37%.
For the US it was much the same story, amidst mounting speculation that the Fed would hike rates next week. Indeed, futures raised the probability of a September hike from 60% on Wednesday to 72% by last night’s close. And looking further out, 85bps of hikes are now priced in by the July 2027 meeting, so that means at least 3 hikes are fully priced in over the next year. In turn, Treasury yields surged higher, with the 2yr yield (+15.5bps) rising to 4.59%, its highest since July 2024, whilst the 10yr yield (+12.2bps) rose to 4.96%, the highest since October 2023. And notably, the 30yr yield (+7.6bps) reached its highest since 2007, at 5.36%. Later in the session, the performance of Treasuries wasn’t helped by news that the US Treasury bought back $5.19bn of long-dated debt, falling short of the $6bn maximum it had announced on Wednesday.
As all that was happening, we did get the latest US PPI inflation print for August. That showed headline PPI up +0.4% on the month, with the July print revised up a tenth to +0.1%. So that pushed the year-on-year reading up to +5.4% (vs. +5.3% expected). But significantly, the components that feed into PCE came in on the stronger side, which cemented the view that the Fed would end up hiking next week. Meanwhile today, we’re set to get the CPI print at 13:30 London time, which is the last big release ahead of the Fed’s decision. Our US economists expect higher gas prices to boost the headline number, with monthly CPI at +0.38% in August, which would keep the year-on-year rate at +3.4%. Meanwhile for core, they expect a relatively softer +0.21% monthly print, which would see the year-on-year number fall a tenth to +2.4%.
All this took a toll on equities, as fears of stagflation and more rate hikes led to fresh declines. In the US, that meant the S&P 500 (-0.58%) fell for a 4th consecutive session, taking the index to a fresh one-month low. Matters weren’t helped by a sharp slump for chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index (-2.66%) falling back after 5 consecutive gains. But the decline was still broad-based, with two-thirds of the S&P 500’s constituents moving lower on the day. Then in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-0.69%) fell to a two-month low, with further declines for the DAX (-0.84%) and the CAC 40 (-0.49%) as well.
Coming back to Asia, and as mentioned at the top the Nikkei (-2.24%) and the KOSPI (-1.85%) are leading the declines. Elsewhere, the Shanghai Composite (-1.82%), the CSI 300 (-1.59%), the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.00%) and the Hang Seng (-0.85%) are also sharply lower. S&P 500 futures (+0.20%) are edging back up with the Nasdaq equivalent and European futures fairly flat.
Early morning data showed that Japan’s business sentiment index for large corporations across all industries has turned positive for the first time in two quarters (at 5.3). Manufacturers posted +7.6, driven by strong demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment and other production machinery amid expanding AI and data center investment. Separately, the PPI slowed slightly in August but remained close to its highest level in over 3-½ years as high energy costs and a weak yen factored into rising business costs. The PPI grew +7.6% year-on-year in August, higher than expectations of +7.4% but cooled slightly from the +7.7% print seen in July, which was revised up from +7.2%.
Looking at the day ahead, the main data highlight will be the US CPI print for August. Otherwise, we’ll get the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for September, and the UK’s monthly GDP reading for July. Meanwhile, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Lane.
1b European opening report
Crude benchmarks slip on reports that Gulf Ministers plan to meet Iranian counterparts; DXY eyes US CPI – Newsquawk US Market Open
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 05:58 AM
- Gulf Foreign Ministers plan to meet with their Iranian counterpart in an effort by Oman and Iran to secure a deal on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to FT.
- Saudi Crown Prince MBS called President Trump twice on Thursday, urging him to launch strikes against Houthis, but Trump declined.
- IEA OMR sees 2026 world oil demand falling more than prior due to the impasse in US-Iran talks.
- US equity futures are bid; Oracle shares gain after a strong earnings report.
- DXY flat heading into US CPI; G10s are mixed against the USD.
- Fixed income benchmarks stabilise following Thursday’s selloff; Gilts little moved after upbeat growth figures.
- Energy benchmarks fall on hopes of a Hormuz deal.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI (Aug), US University of Michigan Survey Prelim (Sep), CBR Announcement. Speakers include ECB’s Lagarde & Lane. Earnings from Kroger.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are modestly firmer this morning (STOXX 600 +0.4%), benefiting from falling energy prices and cooling yields. For the UK specifically, the FTSE 100 (+0.5%) is largely unreactive to a strong GDP reading for July. But ultimately it will have little impact on the BoE next week, which is expected to keep rates on hold.
- European sectors hold a slight positive bias. Banks, Insurance and Telecoms form the top three; Tech, Basic Resources and Chemicals underperform.
- US equity futures (ES +0.5% NQ +0.6% RTY +0.6%) are firmer this morning, following the sentiment seen across Europe. The ES from strong Oracle (+6.9%) results. It reported a beat on headline metrics, with cloud infrastructure revenue impressing. Elsewhere, Adobe (-2.8%) moves a bit lower in the pre-market despite raising annual revenue; Morgan Stanley sees limited inflection evidence.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
FX
- Snapshot: G10s are mixed against the USD this morning. NZD is the clear outperformer, as traders increased their bets of further hikes at the RBNZ, with markets now pricing in four hikes at the Bank. Elsewhere, the CHF lags a touch.
- USD is steady and trades within a 99.00 to 99.17 range. Thursday saw the release of a mixed PPI report, which ultimately spurred little reaction in the USD. But the Dollar did strengthen in the prior session on account of higher yields. Focus today is solely on the CPI report, which will be a decisive factor into the Fed policy meeting next week. A benign report showing continued progress on underlying inflation would strengthen the case for the Fed to remain on hold, particularly given Waller’s stated reaction function. Conversely, a hot report or evidence that disinflation is reversing would likely reinforce expectations for a 25bp hike.
- EUR is flat this morning and holding within a 1.1595 to 1.1617 range, in the aftermath of the ECB policy decision on Thursday. Thereafter, ECB source reports suggested that officials expect more tightening this year, with the debate potentially as soon as October. As such, sell-side banks have broadly pulled forward their bets of another hike at the ECB; the likes of Citi, Barclays and UBS see another round of tightening in December. Interestingly, Danske Bank believes that the Bank will deliver two 25bps hikes, each in October and December.
- JPY is slightly firmer this morning, with USD/JPY holding around 154.20, in a 153.96 to 154.61 range. Overnight, a Reuters source report reiterated that the BoJ will raise rates next week, and potentially signal its readiness to speed up hikes. The report, alongside some scaling back of the pressure seen in the prior session, has helped the Yen this morning. The next hurdle for the currency will be US CPI, where a hot report will likely see yield differentials widen once again.
- GBP is currently flat, but did see some mild upside following a strong GDP report earlier. In July, the UK economy grew 0.4% (exp. 0.00%), largely thanks to a boost in AI. While the data signals economic resilience, it is unlikely to alter expectations for next Thursday’s BoE policy decision. It does, however, provide the MPC’s hawks with ammunition to argue for tighter policy.
FIXED INCOME
- Global fixed income benchmarks have steadily climbed off earlier lows, as energy prices ease off best levels.
- USTs (+1 tick) reside at the upper end of its 106-04+ to 106-14+ range, with the US CPI on the docket later today. Yields remain towards elevated levels (US 10yr 4.94%), and a hot inflation report today will likely give the 10-year enough of a reason to breach the 5.00% mark; a level not seen since Oct’23.
- Bunds (-1 tick) pare some of Thursday’s losses, with the 10yr yield holding around 3.50% in the aftermath of the ECB policy meeting and the surge in energy prices. To recap, the ECB meeting was largely as expected, with nothing to significantly shift market pricing as we await further data and energy developments. Thereafter, ECB source reports suggested that officials expect more tightening this year, with the debate potentially as soon as October.
- Gilts (+28 ticks) opened slightly higher, in line with their peers. Strength which comes amidst cooler energy prices, though despite a strong UK GDP report. The UK economy continues to show resilience despite higher energy prices, with July GDP printing at 0.4% (exp. 0%) while the 3-month average also held steady at 0.4% (exp. 0.3%). Manufacturing and industrial production figures were also solid. This set of data is unlikely to change expectations for the BoE rate decision next Thursday.
- Australia sells AUD 800mln 2.75% November 2029 bonds: b/c 4.47x, avg. yield 5.0396.
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent futures pull back slightly following a week of hefty gains on the back of escalating geopolitics. The downside today comes amid reports that Iran and Gulf states are planning to meet, pushing to iron out a deal for the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, sources suggested Iran’s Foreign Minister and Pakistan’s Army Chief reportedly discussed ways to restore diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict on all fronts. Talks reportedly focused on the US-Iran war, the possibility of returning to negotiations and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Modest downside was seen in crude prices after the IEA slashed its 2026 world oil demand forecast.
- WTI Oct resides in a USD 99.50–104.46/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 95.37–104.04/bbl range) compared to Monday’s USD 90.87–94.73/bbl range. Brent Nov trades in a USD 103.85–109.97/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 100.19–109.68/bbl range) and compared to Monday’s USD 95.97–98.06/bbl band. Dutch TTF has also pulled back from EUR 83/MWh intraday extremes before finding support just under EUR 80/MWh, oscillating on either side of the level. It’s also worth noting that US diesel prices hit a record USD 6.06 per gallon, with California approaching USD 8 per gallon.
- Metals are mixed, with precious metals cheering a slight pullback in oil prices, whilst base metals remain capped amid elevated energy levels. Spot gold trades on either side of its 100 DMA (USD 4,336/oz) in a current USD 4,300-4,361/oz range (vs USD 4,433/oz weekly high). 3M LME copper resides in a narrow USD 14,170.78- 14,356.00/t range at the time of writing.
- IEA OMR: 2026 world oil demand to fall by 2.5mln BPD (vs prev. forecast of a 1.6mln BPD fall), citing impasse in US-Iran talks on resolving their conflict; sees total world oil supply 1.74mln BPD lower than demand in 2026 (vs prev. forecast of 1.27mln BPD lower); now sees full recovery in oil supplies from Gulf producers deferred until 2027; the need for progress in resolving Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts is greater than ever to avoid further oil market tightening.
- US retail diesel price tops USD 6 per gallon, according to AAA.
- US Interior Secretary Burgum said every idea is on the table when asked about diesel export controls.
- China’s NDRC raised gasoline and diesel prices by CNY 435/t and CNY 420/t respectively, effective September 11th.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- Canadian PM Carney said the latest US trade measures against Canada are modest and he reiterated that Canada is always ready to sit down and negotiate with the US.
- South Korea’s PM Han said talks on strategic investment projects with the US are progressing, and that the government will ease regulations and improve conditions for foreign investment. Han added that South Korea does not discriminate against companies based on nationality, and that US strategic investment talks must deliver mutual benefits and commercial returns.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- The French Finance Minister said the government has lowered the 2026 GDP forecast to 0.5% (prev. 0.7%), sees 2027 GDP at 1%, and that debt service costs are seen at EUR 65bln (EUR 4.5bln above original plans).
- ECB’s Moulin said France is not in economic danger. The heatwaves cost the economy 0.1ppts of growth, and the economy will restart at a moderate pace.
- BoE/Savanta Quarterly Attitude Survey (Aug): 1-year ahead 3.2% (prev. 4%), 2-year ahead 2.9% (prev. 3.5%), 5-year ahead 3.2% (prev. 3.9%).
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- UK GDP (Jul MM) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.3%).
- UK GDP (Jul YY) 1.6% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.1%).
- UK GDP 3-Month Avg (Jul) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%).
- UK Manufacturing Production (Jul YY) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2% (Prev. 0.5%).
- UK Manufacturing Production (Jul MM) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.5%).
- UK Industrial Production (Jul YY) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.2%).
- UK Industrial Production (Jul MM) 0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.2%).
CENTRAL BANKS
- ECB’s Nagel told CNBC that it is too early to speculate on rate hikes and that the recent rate hike is a clear commitment on inflation. Nagel added they would not exclude going into mildly restrictive territory.
- ECB’s Kocher said that it is too early to say anything about the next ECB decision.
- ECB’s Simkus said inflation is too high in both the EU and Lithuania.
- ECB’s Kaasik said he would not describe current ECB interest rates as very high.
- The BoJ is set to raise interest rates next week, most likely by 25bps, and may signal readiness to speed up hikes, but has no preset view on terminal rate, or timing of further rate increases, according to sources.
- NBP’s Kotecki said that rate cuts are not currently an option, but could consider rate hikes in November.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump reiterated a pledge to provide a USD 5,000 Trump dividend to adults if Republicans win the Midterms and will make Trump tax cuts permanent, while he separately commented that the Trump dividend won’t be a big problem at all and that he is doing it as a reward and not for the vote.
- US President Trump said in a recorded interview with Fox News that they’re going to take care of USD 40tln debt through growth, while he spoke with Johnson and Thune regarding USD 5,000 dividends.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they have the best-performing bond market in the world and will get to the other side of the energy supply shock, while he added that the Treasury market is in very good shape and term premium is at the lowest differential in many years. Bessent stated regarding the Treasury buyback operation that they didn’t buy back as many as he said, because they buy cheap.
- US Pentagon is in talks to get into AI infrastructure funding with a USD 5bln loan, according to WSJ.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Gulf Foreign Ministers plan to meet with their Iranian counterpart in an effort by Oman and Iran to secure a deal on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to FT.
- US President Trump said Iran has some missiles, but most were knocked out, while he maybe won’t go full into Iran because of the election. Trump also stated that the Iran war will end after the US midterm elections and that Iran is waiting for political change in America.
- US VP Vance privately sought assessments from US military commanders who warned that the Iran war was draining critical stockpiles of Patriot interceptors and long-range missiles, and could weaken US deterrence against China, Russia and North Korea, NYT reported. It added that commanders told Vance that Iran was more resilient than expected and willing to absorb heavy damage without collapsing, prompting Vance to advise President Trump and become more involved in efforts to end the conflict.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they are going to sanction a large bank on Monday.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister and Pakistan’s Army Chief reportedly discussed ways to restore diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict on all fronts, according to sources. The talks were focused on the US-Iran war, the possibility of returning to negotiations and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.
- Al Jazeera reported the entirety of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline is now under Houthi control. It was later reported that the Houthis captured Dhabab and that Yemeni government forces have reportedly withdrawn from Peim Island.
- Iranian sources said that Tehran ordered the Houthis last week to intensify attacks on Saudi Arabia and promised to provide more funding, weapons and senior officers, according to Iran International. Furthermore, Yemen military sources said the IRGC directed a recent Houthi campaign along the Red Sea coast.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said that he does not support the continuation of the war, and Iran must withstand the coming circumstances so that negotiations with the “enemy” are not under other conditions, Al Jazeera reported.
- Saudi Crown Prince MBS called President Trump twice on Thursday, urging him to launch strikes against Houthis, but Trump declined, and US officials stressed the administration has no plans to intervene directly against the Houthis for now, according to Axios.
- Houthis launched a missile attack on southern Saudi Arabia, according to IRNA.
- UAE is reportedly revising plans for its 5GW AI campus following Iranian attacks, according to sources.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- The European Commission resumed work on options that could persuade governments in the bloc to approve the use of Russia’s frozen assets for Ukraine, according to FT.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin has steadily climbed throughout the European morning and currently trades at the upper end of its USD 76.52k-77.46k range.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were pressured with global risk sentiment weighed by a further surge in oil prices and upside in yields, as the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East threatens shipping in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, while there were social media reports citing satellite images that suggested a potential strike by Houthis on Saudi’s East-West pipeline.
- ASX 200 declined amid higher yields, with the Australian 3yr yield at its highest in over 15 years, while Citi revised its call and now sees two more rate hikes by the RBA this year.
- Nikkei 225 underperformed owing to higher oil prices and yields, while participants also brace for a widely expected BoJ rate hike next week.
- KOSPI was dragged lower amid tech-related pressure, with notable losses in the industry heavyweights.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad risk-off mood in the region, with underperformance seen in miners, while recent comments from PBoC Deputy Lu Lei that they will refine the RRR framework and conduct open-market operations more flexibly and precisely failed to provide inspiration, with today’s OMO remaining at an inconsequential amount.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- The Japanese Trade delegation is reportedly preparing a China visit in September, according to Kyodo.
- Fitch assigns Softbank (9984 JT) a “BB+” rating; outlook stable.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Japanese PPI (Aug MM) -0.2% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.1%).
- Japanese PPI (Aug YY) 7.6% vs. Exp. 7.4% (Prev. 7.2%).
1 c) Asian opening report
APAC stocks sold off whilst European and US futures stabilised; US CPI ahead – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 01:58 AM
- US President Trump told reporters that the Iran war could end before the election, and there is no chance the Iran war will last through the rest of his term.
- Saudi Crown Prince MBS called President Trump twice on Thursday, urging him to launch strikes against Houthis, but Trump declined.
- US senior official told Israel’s Channel 13 that Iran is planning a “major attack” involving Israel due to the pressure it is under.
- Crude futures paused overnight after surging yesterday, which saw WTI breach USD 104/bbl, and Brent climb to just shy of USD 110/bbl.
- APAC stocks were pressured, with global risk sentiment weighed by a further surge in oil prices; European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open.
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP (Jul), US CPI (Aug), US University of Michigan Survey Prelim (Sep), IEA OMR, CBR Announcement. Speakers include US President Trump, ECB’s Lagarde & Lane. Earnings from Kroger.
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SNAPSHOT
LOOKING AHEAD
- Highlights include UK GDP (Jul), US CPI (Aug), US University of Michigan Survey Prelim (Sep), IEA OMR, CBR Announcement. Speakers include US President Trump, ECB’s Lagarde & Lane. Earnings from Kroger.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
IRAN CONFLICT/MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump said Iran has some missiles, but most were knocked out, while he maybe won’t go full into Iran because of the election. Trump also stated that the Iran war will end after the US midterm elections and that Iran is waiting for political change in America.
- US President Trump told reporters that the Iran war could end before the election and there is no chance the Iran war will last through the rest of his term.
- US VP Vance privately sought assessments from US military commanders who warned that the Iran war was draining critical stockpiles of Patriot interceptors and long-range missiles, and could weaken US deterrence against China, Russia and North Korea. Commanders also told Vance that Iran was more resilient than expected and willing to absorb heavy damage without collapsing, prompting Vance to advise President Trump and become more involved in efforts to end the conflict.
- US imposed new sanctions on networks aiding Iran’s proxies in the Middle East, while Treasury Secretary Bessent said they are going to sanction a large bank on Monday.
- US CENTCOM said forces have redirected 96 commercial vessels to ensure total compliance, while more than 50 vessels supporting humanitarian aid have been allowed to pass.
- IRGC Navy said it hit an enemy unmanned vessel (submarine) at the entrance to the strategic Strait of Hormuz and thwarted its aggressive mission. IRGC Navy declared the Strait of Hormuz is closed and under their control and intelligence, as well as warned that any hostile presence in this strategic Strait will be targeted.
- Iran is reportedly producing ballistic missiles again, according to the WSJ. Iran has resumed its production of ballistic missiles using stockpiled components and working in underground facilities, according to officials from the US and Middle East familiar with the matter.
- Gulf Foreign Ministers plan to meet with their Iranian counterpart in an effort by Oman and Iran to secure a deal on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to FT.
- Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement regarding developments related to Yemen, in which it stated that Iran emphasises its principled and consistent position on the need to respect the independence, national sovereignty and territorial integrity of Yemen, while it called for an end to the blockade of the country, as well as urged dialogue and a diplomatic solution to the Yemen conflict.
- Iran and Saudi Foreign Ministers held a call and discussed the escalation of tensions and increasing insecurity in the region, as well as emphasised the need for continued cooperation and diplomatic efforts.
- Saudi Crown Prince MBS called President Trump twice on Thursday, urging him to launch strikes against Houthis, but Trump declined, and US officials stressed the administration has no plans to intervene directly against the Houthis for now, according to Axios.
- Iranian sources said that Tehran ordered the Houthis last week to intensify attacks on Saudi Arabia and promised to provide more funding, weapons and senior officers, according to Iran International. Furthermore, Yemen military sources said the IRGC directed a recent Houthi campaign along the Red Sea coast.
- Houthis launched a missile attack on southern Saudi Arabia, according to IRNA.
- Satellite imagery reportedly captured fumes of smoke rising from Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline, following an alleged strike by Yemen Houthis, according to Press TV.
- Yemen forces claimed the capture of 2000 Saudi mercenaries, according to SNN.
- More than 100 US military advisers are on the ground in Saudi Arabia providing intelligence and targeting support to the Kingdom in its military campaign against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, according to CNN citing sources.
- UKMTO said it received a report of two vessels involved in a security incident 4nm west of Khasab, Oman, in which the master of the vessel reported seeing four unknown projectiles hit two unknown vessels, causing a fire on one vessel, while the status of the second vessel was unclear.
- US senior official told Israel’s Channel 13 that Iran is planning a “major attack” involving Israel due to the pressure it is under. The official estimated that the US economic and naval blockade of Iran, which is causing significant damage to the regime’s economy, will lead Tehran to launch a major military operation by the midterm elections in November, which would include Israel, while the official stated that Iranians are considering “a significant escalation” and will not be satisfied with only hitting the Gulf states as they have done previously.
- IDF blew up Hezbollah tunnels beneath the Ali Taher Ridge in southern Lebanon.
- Bahrain’s Foreign Minister spoke by phone with UAE’s Deputy PM and Foreign Minister to discuss bilateral relations and coordination on regional and international issues.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were lower as surging oil prices dictated price action across markets, which saw Treasury yields soar, the dollar strengthened, and weighed on spot gold. Highlighting the move in yields, the 30yr hit 5.366%, the highest since 2007, while the 10yr topped out at 4.954%, a peak since November 2023. Focus resided around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and saw the crude complex see gains of c. USD 7/bbl as Iranian media reported that the Houthis are nearing complete control of the strategic waterway, followed by reports of control over Zaqar and Mayun islands and the Al-Omari military base, as well as Al Mukha city. In terms of the data, US PPI was a mixed report and garnered limited reaction, as traders await the pivotal CPI metrics on Friday, which will likely dictate what the Federal Reserve does in the September confab.
- SPX -0.58% at 7,592, NDX -1.08% at 29,104, DJI -0.61% at 52,069, RUT -1.04% at 2,891.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- Canadian PM Carney said the latest US trade measures against Canada are modest and he reiterated that Canada is always ready to sit down and negotiate with the US.
- South Korea’s PM Han said talks on strategic investment projects with the US are progressing, and that the government will ease regulations and improve conditions for foreign investment. Han added that South Korea does not discriminate against companies based on nationality, and that US strategic investment talks must deliver mutual benefits and commercial returns.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump reiterated a pledge to provide a USD 5,000 Trump dividend to adults if Republicans win the Midterms and will make Trump tax cuts permanent, while he separately commented that the Trump dividend won’t be a big problem at all and that he is doing it as a reward and not for the vote.
- US President Trump said in a recorded interview with Fox News that they’re going to take care of USD 40tln debt through growth, while he spoke with Johnson and Thune regarding USD 5,000 dividends.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they have the best-performing bond market in the world and will get to the other side of the energy supply shock, while he added that the Treasury market is in very good shape and term premium is at the lowest differential in many years. Bessent stated regarding the Treasury buyback operation that they didn’t buy back as many as he said, because they buy cheap.
- US Treasury Buyback (Liquidity Support, 10yr-20yr, max USD 6bln): Accepted USD 5.187bln of 10.489bln offered, while it accepted 23 of 40 eligible securities.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were pressured with global risk sentiment weighed by a further surge in oil prices and upside in yields, as the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East threatens shipping in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, while there were social media reports citing satellite images that suggested a potential strike by Houthis on Saudi’s East-West pipeline.
- ASX 200 declined amid higher yields, with the Australian 3yr yield at its highest in over 15 years, while Citi revised its call and now sees two more rate hikes by the RBA this year.
- Nikkei 225 underperformed owing to higher oil prices and yields, while participants also brace for a widely expected BoJ rate hike next week.
- KOSPI was dragged lower amid tech-related pressure, with notable losses in the industry heavyweights.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad risk-off mood in the region, with underperformance seen in miners, while recent comments from PBoC Deputy Lu Lei that they will refine the RRR framework and conduct open-market operations more flexibly and precisely failed to provide inspiration, with today’s OMO remaining at an inconsequential amount.
- US equity futures were mixed after retreating yesterday and with focus turning to the incoming CPI report.
- European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures U/C after the cash market closed with losses of 0.7% on Thursday.
FX
- DXY took a breather after strengthening yesterday as yields climbed to multi-year highs alongside a surge in oil prices owing to the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthis, which increases the threat to shipping in the Bab al-Mandab Strait. In terms of recent data, PPI was mixed and therefore puts the onus on today’s CPI report to influence the Fed decision next week.
- EUR/USD traded little changed overnight after having recently weakened against the buck despite the ECB’s decision to hike rates by 25bps, which was widely expected, and the statement refrained from any clear forward guidance, but noted inflation will remain well above target for an extended period. Furthermore, there was a later source report that ECB governors think further policy tightening is likely and may debate another hike as soon as October, although it was stated that market expectations for three more hikes may be overly optimistic and December may be a more opportune time to raise borrowing costs.
- GBP/USD lacked demand and retested the 1.3500 level, while participants await data including monthly GDP.
- USD/JPY kept afloat after climbing above 154.00 alongside the rise in US yields and surge in oil prices.
- Antipodeans nursed some losses with little fresh overnight catalysts, while there was a hawkish call from Citi, which now sees two more RBA rate hikes this year to lift the Cash Rate to 4.85%.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures were subdued after sliding as yields climbed to multi-year highs, which saw the US 10yr yield approach near 5% as oil surged, and with prices not helped after the Treasury Buyback operation of USD 5.19bln, while Treasury Secretary Bessent noted they didn’t buy back as many as he said, because they buy cheap.
- Bund futures lingered at the prior day’s trough beneath the 121.00 level after sliding as the rise in oil stoked inflationary pressures and after the ECB hiked rates as widely expected, with source reports also noting that ECB governors think further policy tightening is likely and may debate another hike as soon as October.
- 10yr JGB futures retreated after the surge in oil dictated price action across markets and heading into a widely anticipated BoJ rate hike next week, while PPI data from Japan was inconclusive as the Y/Y reading printed firmer-than-expected, but the M/M showed surprise deflation.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures paused overnight after surging yesterday, in which WTI breached USD 104/bbl, and Brent climbed to just shy of USD 110/bbl amid the escalation in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, which threatens shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, while several sources on social media cited satellite images that suggested a possible attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline.
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Sep/04) fell by 0.391M (exp. -1.6M, prev. -4.450M).
- US Interior Secretary Bergum said every idea is on the table when asked about diesel export controls.
- US official said Iranian or suspected Iranian oil on water averaged 110mln barrels over the past week vs 180mln barrels before the war.
- Spot gold attempted to rebound after suffering yesterday alongside higher oil prices and firmer yields, while attention turns to the looming US CPI report.
- Copper futures lingered near the prior day’s lows after slumping alongside the downbeat risk tone.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin edged higher but with upside capped in choppy trade beneath the USD 77,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoJ is set to raise interest rates next week, most likely by 25bps, and may signal readiness to speed up hikes, but has no preset view on terminal rate, or timing of further rate increases, according to sources.
- China unveiled its 15th five-year plan for new energy vehicle industry development.
- China reportedly halted new battery projects pending a capacity review, according to Caixin.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese PPI (Aug MM) -0.2% vs. Exp. 0% (Prev. 0.1%)
- Japanese PPI (Aug YY) 7.6% vs. Exp. 7.4% (Prev. 7.2%)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said there will be no trilateral talks before elections in Russia. It was separately reported that Zelensky said Ukraine and Canada signed a drone deal.
- Ukraine Air Force noted that strike drones were headed to the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions.
- European Commission resumed work on options that could persuade governments in the bloc to approve the use of Russia’s frozen assets for Ukraine, according to FT.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Head of a UK government review on getting young people into employment warned that it will not provide savings quick enough to avoid painful decisions on tax and spending, according to FT.
- ECB governors think further policy tightening is likely and may debate another hike as soon as October.
2.NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA/
SOUTH KOREA//NORTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA
South Koreans Rally Against Hormuz Deployment In Front Of US Embassy
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 05:00 PM
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com
Protesters gathered near the US Embassy in Seoul on Wednesday to rally against joining the US war with Iran, as the South Korean government is considering deploying military forces to help the US efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Carrying signs that read “Do Not Join a War of Aggression” and “No Military Deployment to Hormuz,” the protesters chanted, “We cannot send our young people into a sea of death,” according to AFP, which reported from the scene and estimated that about 60 people took part in the demonstration.
“Sending our troops to an illegal war waged by the United States is unacceptable,” Choi Young-ok, a member of Korean Peace Solidarity for Sovereignty and Reunification, a group that is highly critical of the US military presence in South Korea, told AFP.
“There is no reason for us to send troops when no other country has done so or said it would,” added Choi, who also warned that sending South Korean troops would “inevitably lead to casualties.”
Also on Wednesday, the office of South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said it has not yet made a final decision on whether Seoul will send troops to the Strait of Hormuz. “The government has not yet finalized its policy and is cautiously assessing it,” said Seong Ghi-hong, a press secretary for the presidential office.
Due to its reliance on energy and other exports from the Persian Gulf, the US’s war with Iran has triggered an energy and economic shock in South Korea, and the US is now reportedly putting pressure on Seoul to join the war in some way.
The South China Morning Post reported on Wednesday that the South Korean Defense Ministry has sent a fact-finding mission to the region to assess the potential deployment.
The team is expected to visit the UAE, which hosts US military bases, and could serve as a hub for operations if South Korean forces are deployed to assist in the war.
Amid the South Korean government’s deliberations, Iran has warned Seoul not to get involved.
“The military presence or operational participation of other nations in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz would inevitably be viewed as direct support for the party committing acts of aggression, and would lead to serious consequences,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei wrote on X on Monday.
end
.JAPAN
JAPAN/
Japan’s Toxic Triple Shock: Yen, Oil, And Surging US Yields
“Japan’s Toxic Triple Shock” describes a high-stakes macro-economic convergence pressuring Japanese financial markets and the Bank of Japan (BOJ). This situation involves three distinct economic forces colliding simultaneously:
1. The Dynamic: How the Three Shocks Intersect
Surging US Treasury Yields
│
▼
Widening Yield Gap
│
▼
Depreciating/Volatile Yen ──► Import Costs Surge (Oil) ──► Margin Squeeze on Japanese Equities
I. Surging US Treasury Yields
As US long-term bond yields spike (driven by fiscal deficit concerns, stubborn US inflation, and massive US Treasury issuance), the interest rate differential between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan widens dramatically. This gap puts severe downward pressure on Japanese debt assets and fuels capital flight into higher-yielding US dollar assets.
II. The Yen Trapped in a Vicious Cycle
- Weakness vs. Rapid Unwinds: A wide rate differential drives the yen toward multi-decade lows. When the currency drops precipitously, it forces potential intervention from Japanese monetary authorities or triggers sharp yen-carry-trade unwinds that rock global liquidity.
- No Easy Policy Fix: Raising Japanese interest rates rapidly to defend the currency risks destabilizing Japan’s domestic bond market and increasing sovereign debt service costs. Keeping rates low, however, leaves the currency exposed to further decline.
III. Rising Crude Oil & Commodity Prices
Japan is an energy-starved economy that imports over 90% of its primary energy requirements. Rising global oil prices combined with a weak yen double-hit the domestic economy:
- Japanese importers must buy dollar-denominated oil using a heavily discounted yen, creating a imported-inflation tax on households and small businesses.
- Elevated energy inputs squeeze corporate profit margins, offsetting the traditional benefits exporters usually receive from a weaker currency.
2. Market Impact: Equity & Debt Pressures
| Asset / Market Area | Impact | Primary Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei / Japanese Equities | Retracting toward key support / trend lines. | High energy costs + volatility from carry-trade unwinds. |
| Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) | Yield upward pressure / price declines. | Following US bond sell-offs and BOJ monetary tightening fears. |
| Japanese Corporate Profits | Squeezed profit margins (except large multinational exporters). | Double-whammy of higher oil prices and import costs. |
Export to Sheets
3. The BOJ’s Policy Dilemma
This “triple shock” leaves the Bank of Japan with limited room to maneuver:
- If the BOJ tightens policy / raises rates: It supports the yen and cools import inflation, but risks spiking borrowing costs for domestic debt and threatening equity valuations.
- If the BOJ stays dovish / slow to hike: Capital continues fleeing to high-yielding US assets, exacerbating yen depreciation and making imported energy drastically more expensive.
end
3. CHINA/
CHINA/
Sinopec Sees China Oil Demand Falling 8.9% in 2026
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 07:15 PM
By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com
China’s Sinopec, the world’s top refiner by capacity, expects Chinese oil demand to drop by 8.9% in 2026 from a year earlier amid demand destruction from higher oil prices and the acceleration of electric vehicle adoption.
Oil demand in the world’s biggest crude oil importer is expected to drop by 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) on average this year compared to last year, according to estimates by Sinopec’s research arm quoted by Reuters.
Gasoline demand is set for an 8.7% decline, while diesel consumption is expected to crash by 11.4%, Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute says.
The only petroleum product used in transportation that would see an increase is jet fuel, whose demand is expected to increase by 1.3% this year compared to 2025.
The high oil and fuel prices amid the Iran war accelerated the structural shift toward EVs this year, eating into the road transportation fuel demand.
China has managed the Strait of Hormuz crisis better than most expectations as it slashed its imports of crude oil and temporarily banned fuel exports in the spring and early summer.
The high oil prices destroyed some demand and sped up the adoption of EVs, which has been growing anyway in recent years, suppressing total oil demand even without blocked crude supplies in the Middle East.
Amid falling road fuel demand, Sinopec, or China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation as it is officially known, is looking to transform its business.
Sinopec will be allocating more capital to new energy and chemicals by the end of the decade to grow revenues and profits amid the lowest domestic fuel sales in China in nearly a decade.
In its first-half earnings release, Sinopec flagged falling domestic fuel sales, which have been weighing on the company’s earnings for two years now.
“Due to the dampening effect of high oil prices on demand and accelerated substitution by new energy, domestic refined oil products consumption declined by 8.6% year on year, among which gasoline decreased by 7.9%, diesel decreased by 11.5%, while jet fuel (kerosene) rose by 1.3% driven by holiday travel and the recovery of international routes,” Sinopec said in its press release.
end
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
UK
Migrants Placed In Tiny British Village Will Out Number Locals By 10 To 1
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,
The official line is that 1,256 single adult males will be placed at the old MoD depot on the edge of the Oxfordshire hamlet. Yet the document villagers pulled out of the consultation pack talks about “accommodation for 3,510 service users.”
That is not a rounding error. In a place of 350 people and 46 children, it is a demographic wrecking ball.
The Home Office calls the figure an “outdated estimate” and “categorically untrue.” But the document has not been withdrawn.
The village has no pub, no shop, no pavement on the approach road and no street lighting worth the name. Men of fighting age would be free to come and go from a site that backs onto the children’s playing field. That is the plan they are being told to accept as “fairness.”
This is the same village that first exploded in July when the 1,250 figure landed with almost no consultation.
You WILL NOT BELIEVE What Is Happening In This TINY English Village
Microcosm for the whole UK
Children from the parish wrote to the Prime Minister asking him not to take the only home they had known. Seven-year-old Rex Perkin, whose family has lived there more than a century, worried he would no longer be able to walk to his sister’s grave. On 4 July – American Independence Day – 96 percent of those who voted backed a referendum on leaving the United Kingdom. The second vote is now days away.
Kids In TINY British Village BEG The Government Not To Force Illegal Migrants On Their Home
There will be more illegals than residents
The new row began when residents working through the planning papers found an Unexploded Ordnance risk assessment for Bicester Site A. It states that “the proposed scheme” relates to “accommodation for 3,510 service users.” The assessment is dated March this year. It is still online. It has not been amended.
The official planning application seeks a ten-year “temporary” change of use for “non-detained asylum accommodation,” open 24 hours, for up to 1,256 single males aged 18 to 65. Consultation closes on 17 September. The village’s symbolic independence referendum is two days earlier, on 15 September – Battle of Britain Day.
Parish council chairman Tim McNally put the contradiction in plain English.
“Although the proposal states 1,256 single males between the ages of 18 and 65, the service users focuses on 3,510,” he said. “That is ten times the size of the village of Piddington. Now if that is an error, correct it. This is more than alarming. It is either deception at the greatest level or incompetence at the highest.”
Resident campaigner Ian Darby told GB News the same suspicion is now general.
“Clearly we’re concerned and it’s slightly beggars belief that if there was some original thinking at sort of 3,500 people, that they’d still be daft enough to include an old report that is no longer relevant in this consultation,” he said.
He added, “Some of us are a little bit more suspicious and worry that that is potentially their ultimate plan, which for this village, just to remind everybody, would be ten times the size of this village. It’s a takeover. It’s a complete destruction of a beautiful little village.”
A Home Office spokesman replied: “It is categorically untrue to suggest we are seeking to house 3,510 people at the MOD Bicester. As our planning application clearly states, we are considering the site to accommodate up to 1,256 asylum seekers.”
They added that community concerns are “central to our immigration reforms” and that hotels are being emptied in favour of former military sites.
Villagers note the 3,510 figure was never pulled from the file. They also note the application arrived after a 56-day wait with 11 sections redacted, including material on suicide and self-harm, health and safety, and handling a death on site.
Piddington is a single-lane hamlet of thatched and brick cottages, a 13th-century Grade II-listed church, and a parish playing field. The nearest amenities are miles away down an unlit B-road with no pavement. Gardens sit close to the depot fence. The site is about 750 metres from family homes.
Resident Melise Witkin, 59, told the Mail the argument is not class and never was.
“This is not about being rich or poor, this is about safety,” she said. “We are 356 people in the village with 46 children and 1,250 men turning up is a recipe for disaster. People walk their dogs, children play, I just think it is madness. This is about safety, nothing more. Even for them [the asylum seekers], along that road there is no pavement, there are no street lights. We don’t have a pub, we don’t have a shop, what are the asylum seekers going to do here.”
Karen Joy said the fear is already in the houses.
“We feel we have been ignored,” she said. “We are a very small village and there is nothing for the people in the asylum camp to do. Our worry is that they will wander into our village and the security is nil. We feel scared. That is all I feel, to be honest.”
Victoria Hubbocks described what the change does to ordinary life. She runs at 5am. Her 11-year-old walks the dog alone. The village currently switches street lights off overnight because everyone knows everyone.
“I go for runs at 5 o’clock in the morning and I don’t feel scared. I will have to change that,” she said. “I think it effectively takes away my children’s childhood.” On the Prime Minister’s demand that every area “step up,” she added: “Step up? Fair enough, but ten men to each woman in Piddington isn’t a fair proportion in any way, shape or form.”
Joe Marshall, on the parish council, said police who visited the site left a phrase behind that nobody in Whitehall wants to repeat.
“We’re sitting ducks,” he said. “The police have come and had a look and said that we’re sitting ducks, and we’ve not been given any reassurances.” He also said the application is “full of inconsistencies,” littered with typos, and missing “really crucial documents.”
Mario Terzino has an 18-year-old daughter who walks the dog alone. That stops if the camp opens. “We’ve got no public transport. There is nothing here,” he said. “It’s not about who’s going to the base. It’s about the scale. We’re talking about 1,250 people, or males, going into a site which is literally adjacent to our playing field. It’s just bonkers.”
Piddington is being sold as an isolated planning row. It is not. It is the same template stamped across rural Britain: take a high-trust village with no night-time economy, no spare police, and a children’s play area, then drop in a barracks-worth of single adult males and call it “equity.”
At RAF Linton-on-Ouse in North Yorkshire, a village of about 600 faces around 1,200 single adult males beside a primary school and nursery – six migrant men to every local woman.
UK//EDUCATION SYSTEM
What More Evidence Does The Blob Need That Michael Gove Was Right?
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Toby Young via The Daily Sceptic,
When I think of Michael Gove perusing the latest PISA league tables, proving yet again that his education reforms have transformed the life chances of English schoolchildren, a line from Broadcast News, the 1987 romcom, comes to mind.
“It must be nice to always believe you know better, to always think you’re the smartest person in the room,” says a veteran television news man to a young female producer.
“No,” she replies. “It’s awful.”
When it comes to teaching and learning, the man who ran the Department for Education from 2010 – 14 really does know better. As he has pointed out, a natural experiment has taken place in Great Britain over the last 16 years – longer, if you date the beginning of the reform programme to the Labour and Skills Act 2000 – with England implementing a raft of educational reforms and Scotland and Wales stubbornly sticking to the same old failed formula. The results in the just-published 2025 PISA data are there for all to see.
English 15 year-olds scored 492 in maths, 497 in reading and 516 in science – 29, 36 and 34 points respectively above the OECD average. England now sits comfortably in the upper reaches of the developed world, having climbed into the top 10 in all three subjects.
Wales, by contrast, has fallen below the OECD average, its maths score declining a full 10 points since 2022. Scotland, though still nominally above the international average, has flatlined since its own dismal 2022 showing and now trails England by roughly a year’s worth of learning. Just think about that: in Scotland, the average child is a year behind his English counterparts. (In Wales, they are two years behind.)
So Lord Gove has been vindicated. But knowing he was right won’t be much comfort, given the resistance to his reforms in the devolved nations. No free schools, no academies, no ‘comprehensive grammars’. No phonics, no spelling and grammar tests, no maths mastery, no EBacc, no Progress 8. Just the same old romantic dross – ‘problem solving’, ‘transferable skills’, ‘child-centred learning’ – that has failed Scottish and Welsh schoolchildren for decades.
Instead of replicating Westminster’s knowledge-rich curriculum, Edinburgh and Cardiff rolled out a skills-based “curriculum for excellence”. Even today, in spite of the overwhelming evidence of its failure, the SNP Education Secretary, Màiri McAllan, is still defending this rag-bag of progressive clichés.
Scotland’s education system, she said in response to the latest PISA figures, looks at “artistic expression, problem solving and moral education” so it produces “well-rounded individuals who are ready and capable to be resilient in this world”. Not so ready and capable, Màiri, if they can’t read, write or add up. As Gove rightly concluded, there’s no evidence schools can teach artistic expression, problem solving or character traits like resilience, so it’s better to focus on what they can teach.
The unions have a lot to answer for. In England, it was a standing joke among education reformers in the early 2010s that the ‘n’ in the NUT stood for ‘no’ because England’s largest teaching union had blocked every reform for the last 50 years. Gove and his trusted lieutenants like Nick Gibb faced down the NUT and drove through his reforms in the teeth of ferocious opposition. But his Scottish and Welsh counterparts weren’t so robust, quickly abandoning any effort to overhaul their failing schools when the unions objected.
Some of this can be explained by not wanting to copy what the hated Tories were doing down south. But even when the OECD recommended Scotland reproduce some of the measures that were clearly succeeding in England – a pared-down academic core, greater headteacher autonomy, stricter behaviour management policies, more rigorous assessment – the EIS, Scotland’s largest teaching union, threw up its arms in horror. Each time Scottish education ministers have so much as gestured towards reform, the union has treated it as an act of war.
All of which must be profoundly depressing for Lord Gove. What more do you need? he must be thinking. Worse, the current Labour Government is in the process of dismantling the Gove reforms. Incredibly, Bridget Phillipson and now Lucy Powell have looked at the PISA data and concluded that England’s education system should be more like that of Scotland and Wales – less school autonomy, no more free schools, continuous assessment instead of rigorous exams, toothless behaviour policies, and a neutered Ofsted. At the heart of Labour’s new national curriculum, we’re told, will be ‘sustainability’ and ‘decolonisation’.
The blob is back and the smartest man in the room must be reluctantly concluding that no amount of evidence will convince his opponents he was right.
END
UK
Meanwhile In London’s Trafalgar Square…
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 08:20 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,
They put it up…
On Thursday morning, a five-metre tall overweight black woman in a tight blue dress and matching heels was unveiled on Trafalgar Square’s Fourth Plinth and described to the public as a contemporary “everywoman.”
City Hall has called Lady in Blue a symbol of ‘confidence and purpose’. CNN framed the same object as a victory because it is “not another White man.” Ordinary Londoners looking at the thing itself reached a simpler verdict: identity politics on a plinth.
The 16th Fourth Plinth commission is the work of New York artist Tschabalala Self. The figure is bejewelled and mid-stride, with a giant behind.
The Mayor’s Press Office posted the official line within hours of the unveiling. “London’s Fourth Plinth is one of the most exciting public art commissions in the world,” it wrote. “Today we welcome ‘Lady in Blue’ by Tschabalala Self – a symbol of confidence and purpose and an excellent addition to Trafalgar Square.”
BBC London went with the house style: “‘Everywoman’ statue unveiled in Trafalgar Square.” The replies under both posts filled up with the same words: eyesore, insult, not representative, politics not art.
Author Laura Dodsworth quoted the official announcement and kept it short.
Self has been consistent about the brief. “My work Lady In Blue will bring to Trafalgar Square a woman that many can relate to,” she said. “She is not an idol to venerate or a historic figurehead to commemorate. She is a woman walking forward into our collective future with ambition and purpose. She is a Londoner, who represents the city’s spirit.”
Self also said she wanted to “direct everyone’s attention to the future” because “I don’t think there are enough monuments that are about our shared future to come.”
To The Art Newspaper she added: “This is a contemporary representation of personhood. Women need to be understood as being persons. Black people need to be understood as being persons. Despite someone’s identity politics, they should be able to be understood as a representation of all human beings.”
Ok, but it doesn’t look very good, does it.
END
AUSTRIA:
about time:
(REMIX)
Austria’s Headscarf Ban For Under-14 Schoolgirls Comes Into Force
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 02:00 AM
Austria’s new nationwide ban on “traditional Muslim” head coverings, including hijabs and burqas, for girls under 14 in both public and private schools, has now taken effect as of Sept. 7, 2026. in Vienna, Lower Austria, and Burgenland.
The start date coincided with the start of the new school year.
Austria’s remaining states will follow with a ban next week as well.
The measure, framed by the government as a child-protection and gender-equality policy, immediately faced visible resistance from Muslims and the first formal legal challenge.
At an Islamic primary school in Vienna, reporters from Austrian news outlet Heute observed young girls arriving to school still wearing headscarves accompanied by their mothers. One child wore a pink hijab coordinated with her dress; two slightly older students entered in simple hijabs without parents. School officials did not immediately clarify how they would apply the ban on private Islamic institutions.
The law requires schools to start with conversations involving the student and her legal guardians. Repeated violations trigger involvement of child-protection services, with fines of €150 to €800 possible for parents as a last resort. Teachers, already under strain, must initiate these talks. There are now fears of real conflict arising in the coming months.
Integration Minister Claudia Bauer of the conservative ÖVP described the headscarf as “a sign of oppression and a means of controlling girls from the earliest childhood.” Chancellor Christian Stocker has separately called for a constitutional ban on political Islam, saying he does not “want to live in an Islamic state.”
The right-wing Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), the most popular party in the country is known for its even harsher stance toward migrants and Islam in the country. FPÖ politician Ricarda Berger stated there is “no place for political Islam in Austria, and certainly not in our schools.”
The party wants a general ban on all headscarves and face coverings in schools for both students and teachers alike, which would cover all ages.
Education Minister Christoph Wiederkehr of the liberal NEOS acknowledged uncertainty about the law’s fate at the Constitutional Court, stating: “You can never be completely certain.”
He added that the government and education ministry “carried out very intensive consultations” to draft a constitutionally compliant text.
Only the Greens opposed the bill in parliament. Green politician Sigi Maurer accused Wiederkehr of “creating new conflicts and offloading them onto the teachers,” saying the minister wanted to “foist the role of police officers onto them.”
Teachers’ union chairman Paul Kimberger noted that some communities had already announced they would resist and that certain conversations with parents “will probably have limited success.”
The Islamic Religious Community in Austria (IGGÖ), the largest Islamic organization in the country, condemned the ban as discriminatory. Spokesperson Carla Amina Baghajati said, “We believe it unjustifiably restricts the fundamental right to freedom of religion and disproportionately affects Muslim girls. Rather than protecting children, it singles out a specific religious practice and risks excluding the very children it claims to support.”
The IGGÖ has pledged to support families challenging the law at the Constitutional Court. A request for annulment was filed on the first day of school.
A 2020 Constitutional Court ruling had struck down an earlier ban limited to children under 10, finding it violated Austria’s duty of religious neutrality. The court dismissed premature challenges to the new law in July because it had not yet entered force, but that procedural barrier is now gone. Left-wing student groups have called for protests. An 11-year-old girl demonstrated against the ban in February carrying a banner that, translated into English, read, “My headscarf, my decision.”
The Constitutional Court is likely to have the final word on the issue.
END
UK
More Than 62,000 Arrested For Speech-Related Offenses In Britain, Report Finds
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 07:45 AM
More than 62,000 people were arrested in Britain for communications offenses over a five-year period, according to a new civil liberties report warning that the country’s increasingly broad speech restrictions are having a chilling effect on free expression.
Big Brother Watch found that 62,199 people were arrested between 2021 and 2025, amounting to roughly 34 arrests per day. At least 18,500 people were charged and 12,292 were convicted, according to the organization.
The findings were based on Freedom of Information requests to police forces across the United Kingdom. Big Brother Watch said the actual number of arrests could be higher because some forces did not provide complete data.
The report examined enforcement of communications laws that can cover threatening or grossly offensive messages and other online content.
Big Brother Watch argues that broadly written statutes have resulted in people being investigated or arrested over controversial social media posts, jokes and other forms of expression.
The group also found stark geographical differences in enforcement. Cumbria Constabulary recorded about 25.7 arrests per 10,000 residents over five years, compared with just 1.9 in neighboring Northumbria.
Big Brother Watch described the disparity as a “postcode lottery” that raises concerns about whether speech laws are being enforced consistently.
The report follows growing scrutiny of Britain’s Online Safety Act, which imposes extensive content and child-safety requirements on internet platforms. Big Brother Watch says the law has encouraged platforms to restrict lawful material and require age verification for some online content.
Silkie Carlo, director of Big Brother Watch, called for an independent review of Britain’s speech laws and police practices.
“Thousands of people are being arrested for controversial speech, online jokes and non-violent protest,” Carlo said. “Enough is enough.”
The organization argues the figures demonstrate that Britain’s approach to policing speech needs significant reform, particularly when arrests do not ultimately result in criminal charges.
Big Brother Watch is now calling on the government to conduct a national review of laws affecting freedom of expression and to reconsider police training on speech-related offenses.
END
5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/USA/VS IRAN/THURSDAY NIGHT
Huge Fire Along Saudi ‘Hormuz Bypass’ East-West Oil Pipeline After Alleged Houthi Strikes
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 06:15 PM
Update(1815ET): While unconfirmed, this would mark a huge escalation of the Houthi entry into what’s been creeping all summer into a regional war:
Yemen’s armed forces targeted Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline; satellite data shows fires at six points along the route that transports crude oil from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. (IRIB News)
Reports earlier in the day revealed Houthi attacks on southern areas of the kingdom, but made no mention of the Iran-aligned group targeting the further north East-West oil pipeline – which has become vital as an alternative bypass to the contested Strait of Hormuz. Earlier today: Houthis Seize Yemeni Port Of Mocha, Gaining Greater Leverage Over Bab Al Mandab Strait
And now an extremely alarming situation for global energy flows:
Analysts remain cautious about speaking in certainties at this early point…
“I want to stress that there is NOT YET concrete evidence to support that the Saudi East-West Pipeline has been hit. There is satellite imagery from multiple satellites that clearly indicate SOMETHING is going on, but there is not yet confirmation that it ACTUALLY has significant/catastrophic damage.”
Large smoke plumes south of Medina, as Iranian state media is quick to frame it as the result of a significant Houthi attack and escalation against the kingdom…
Map (via S&P Global Commodity Insights):
* * *
Update(1735ET): It looks like that Iranians have fired on more international vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, with the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Centre within the last couple hours monitoring the below developing situation:
UKMTO says it has received a report of two vessels involved in a security incident 4nm West of Khasab Oman
The master of the vessel reports seeing four unknown projectiles hit two unknown vessels, causing fire on one vessel, and unsure of the status of the second vessel, 6nm north of his position.
Meanwhile…
WTI Crude back to $104
The IRGC taking shots at tankers ‘violating’ Iran’s passage protocol has of late become a nightly and daily reality. As Washington tries to find an offramp, and ratchets the ‘Economic D-day’ sanctions, this is Tehran squeezing back and saying not so fast, seeking to impose a deep political and economic cost on the Trump administration.
There could also be another ‘military answer’ on Iran from the US side as soon as tonight. The Pentagon had launched sporadic attacks on southern Iran earlier this week. But the US also seems hesitant and fearful over the prospect of runway escalation and inescapable quagmire.
* * *
Brent crude futures traded above $102 a barrel Thursday morning after Iran threatened to intensify attacks, renewing concerns over tanker flows through the Hormuz maritime chokepoint. The supply risk extends well beyond crude to mounting shortages of refined products, particularly diesel, as the US diesel crack spread trades around $102 a barrel.
President Trump’s indication yesterday that the conflict could continue beyond November’s midterm elections suggests limited near-term fuel pump relief for working-class folks, with the US national gasoline average above the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon threshold and diesel at a record high. Trump also announced overnight a proposal for a $5,000 “Trump dividend” check for every American adult if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress.
Following Goldman, HSBC raised its 2026 average Brent crude forecast to $90 a barrel from $80, citing continued disruptions to shipping through the critical Gulf waterway that are expected to keep global oil balances tighter for longer.
With Hormuz flows running at roughly 30% of pre-conflict levels, HSBC analysts see the market adjusting to a prolonged period of depressed tanker transit through the chokepoint. That outlook suggests sustained supply constraints through year-end.
“The key indicator to watch is whether this will put an end to the heavy shuttling of oil through the Strait of Hormuz,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management in Copenhagen. “It may not come to a complete halt, but combined with the more aggressive Houthis in the Red Sea and higher Chinese crude oil imports, the global oil market balance appears to be deteriorating again.”
Earlier this week, Vitol Group CEO Russell Hardy said about 10 million barrels a day have been crossing the waterway, roughly half of pre-war levels. He added that an exact figure is hard to quantify and that volumes aren’t guaranteed daily.
Read:
Goldman commodities strategist Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby sharply revised tanker-flow estimates through the Hormuz chokepoint to between 15 million and 16 million barrels per day, roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels. That’s mainly because the market is not counting ships that turn off their automatic identification systems to avoid detection by Iran.
Goldman’s Daan Struyven also noted one upside scenario this week that could push Brent to $120 if the conflict persists…
“The fundamental picture for products remains bullish with global inventories and reserves deteriorating,” said Darrell Fletcher, managing director for commodities at Bannockburn Capital Markets. Before ‘Operation Epic Furry’, about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passed through Hormuz to global customers, mainly in Asia. The ongoing disruptions have sent NatGas prices in Europe above 81 euros on Thursday.
Beyond energy, a broad-based commodity rally has pushed agricultural products and metals higher, sending the Bloomberg Commodity Index to levels last seen in 2012. HSBC analysts spot a commodities cycle developing into a “super squeeze,” which suggests the move could be sustained.
END
ISRAEL/USA VS IRAN FRIDAY
ISRAEL TBN
IRAN/USA/JORDAN
Several US Warplanes Damaged In This Week’s Iranian Attack On Base In Jordan: Report
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 06:50 PM
The Iranian ballistic missile attack on an American base in Jordan this week ranks as one of the single biggest missile volleys sent over Jordan since the start of the US-led war.
The Tuesday night into Wednesday attack targeted Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, multiple international reports say. Widely shared but unconfirmed social media videos appeared to show several direct impacts on the base. But at least some of the images have been authenticated by outlets like Dropsite News.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) sought to downplay the attack, saying initially that all troops were account for, but not immediately divulging whether casualties resulted.
Since then, the Pentagon has said that no deaths resulted from the strikes on Jordan, during which time over 30 Patriot missiles were deployed as an aerial defensive measure.
While the Pentagon has remained mum on specifics, officials have acknowledged light material damage at the base.
New reporting from CBS says that several US military aircraft were damaged in the attack, based on anonymous defense officials, with at least one warplane being knocked out of commission:
Multiple American military aircraft were damaged in Iranian strikes overnight Tuesday into Wednesday local time on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, people with direct knowledge of the matter told CBS News.
One A-10 Thunderbolt, an attack aircraft known as the Warthog, was struck and lost a wing, the sources said.
Roughly eight F-15s sustained light damage and were reportedly put back into service, according to the people familiar with the damage, who spoke to CBS News under the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
If the report is accurate, this means that clearly a number of missiles got through the dozens of Patriots launched to intercept. In summary…
- Around eight F-15s reportedly suffered damage, while an A-10 Warthog was struck and lost a wing
- US forces fired more than 30 Patriot missiles during the attack, costing over $126 million
Unconfirmed video: “The US Army is transferring Black Hawk helicopters from the American Muwaqqaf Al-Salti base in Jordan, including damaged helicopters.”
Dozens of expensive aircraft, including large refuelers, have been destroyed by Iran’s ‘retaliation’ throughout Operation Epic Fury as part of its ‘debasifaction’ campaign.
This has led to a broad retreat of US forces from ‘frontline’ Gulf bases, which may actually never be fully reconstituted again, or even rebuilt.
END
ISRAEL// HEZBOLLAH
WATCH: IDF completes Ali Taher security zone after destroying Hezbollah tunnels
IDF troops are preparing to defend the area and prevent Hezbollah from returning, Netanyahu and Katz said.
Follow us on Googlehttps://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=4099937&url=https://www.jpost.com/IDF destroys Hezbollah tunnel in Ali Taher ridge, September 10, 2026. (credit: Section 27A of the Copyright law via Walla)BySHIR PERETSSEPTEMBER 10, 2026 21:20Updated: SEPTEMBER 10, 2026 22:47
The IDF has destroyed Hezbollah’s underground infrastructure on the Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon, completing the establishment of Israel’s security zone there, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz said in a joint statement on Thursday.
IDF soldiers completed the dismantling of underground routes in the Ali al-Taher ridge area after recently establishing operational control over the ridge, both above and below ground, the military said.
END
HOUTHIS/IRAN/ISRAEL USA
Twin Chokepoint Shock: Houthis Seize Mayyun Island In Bab el-Mandeb Strait As Hormuz Disruptions Persist
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 09:00 AM
Three converging threats to watch are intensifying pressure on global energy markets: damage to Russian refining capacity, ongoing disruption at Hormuz, and new, expanding Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping. The resulting physical market squeeze extends well beyond the Gulf area. Record-high diesel prices in the US and other markets, such as China’s return to buying crude, raise the risk that oil markets will remain exceptionally tight into the Northern Hemisphere winter.
What we know so far is that the Russia-Ukraine war has knocked out a whole bunch of refining capacity and halted exports of critical fuels from Russia. The Gulf area has seen an escalation in fighting this week as the Hormuz chokepoint remains open with tanker transits but still limited and far from pre-war levels.
Couple this all with the chokepoint madness still being disrupted and new developments overnight: Iran-backed Houthi forces advanced toward a strategic port near the southern entrance to the Red Sea, threatening to tighten control on a second critical shipping corridor.
Bloomberg reported that Houthi rebels have gained ground around Mokha, with some geopolitical analysts reporting that the Yemeni port city has fallen.
Its fall would give the Houthis another coastal stronghold alongside Hodeida and the ability to control more of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, suggesting commercial traffic could begin to drop and transits would be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing shipping time and freight costs.
Alternative Route: Cape of Good Hope
On top of this, China has returned to global oil markets, and ex-Goldman Commodities head Jeff Currie warned Thursday that this is the real driver of soaring crude prices.
Also overnight, Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline appears to have been struck by Houthi forces, which the pipeline served as an oil escape route, effectively bypassing the Hormuz chokepoint to the Red Sea.
Andrew Farrand, a political-risk analyst at Horizon Engage, described the rapid Houthi advance as a major setback for Saudi efforts in Yemen, warning that it could bring the Houthis closer to territory overlooking the waterway’s narrowest section.
Simultaneous disruption of Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Strait of Hormuz creates a two-sided squeeze: less energy can leave the Gulf, while tankers that can move face longer, more expensive journeys. It also threatens Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea terminal.
Beyond Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, these are the main straits to watch:
Global Maritime Chokepoints
Where the routes narrow
What could interrupt commercial traffic
The twin disruptions threaten shipping corridors that carried roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade through Hormuz and through Bab el-Mandeb, while jeopardizing a Red Sea shipping route central to trade between Asia and Europe and risking ignition of a stagflationary squeeze as diesel prices soar to new highs that eventually feed into supply chains, freight costs, and ultimately, at a lag, higher prices on store shelves.
END
HAMAS
IDF kills Hamas Khan Yunis Brigade commander in Gaza Strip air strike
The strike targeted a vehicle in the Hamad neighborhood, north of Khan Yunis, after which a residential apartment on the first floor of Tower M caught fire.
The commander of Hamas’s Khan Yunis Brigade who was reportedly killed in an IDF strike September 11, 2026.(photo credit: ARAB MEDIA)ByAVI ASHKENAZI , JERUSALEM POST STAFFSEPTEMBER 11, 2026 10:34Updated: SEPTEMBER 11, 2026 16:32
A Thursday overnight Israeli Air Force strike in Khan Yunis killed the commander of Hamas’s Khan Yunis Brigade, Muhammad Yazouri, the IDF announced on Friday.
The IDF stated that, before becoming the commander of the brigade, Yazouri had been Deputy Commander of the Khan Younis Brigade, Commander of the Combat Support Battalion, and Head of the Brigade’s Intelligence Department.
The strike targeted a vehicle in the Hamad neighborhood, north of Khan Yunis, after which a residential apartment on the first floor of Tower M caught fire, Arab media reported.
According to the IDF, the same strike had also killed Hudheifa Muammar, a company commander, and Muhammad Bahjat Rashi, another Hamas terrorist.
IDF, Shin Bet, Israel Police kills Hamas terrorist responsible for 2002 shooting
On Thursday, the IDF, Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), and Israel Police announced that Israeli security forces had eliminated Hamas terrorist Farah Hamed, who was responsible for a series of deadly attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF soldiers and later helped direct terrorism in the West Bank.
Hamed was killed on Wednesday in a joint Shin Bet, IDF, and Israel Police operation involving a strike in the central Gaza Strip, according to the security agencies.
Among the attacks attributed to Hamed was a November 2002 shooting near Rimonim Junction in which Israeli civilian Esther Galia Atiya was killed.
IDF kills head of Hamas sniper cell
Also on Thursday, the IDF and Shin Bet killed in a strike Moamen Jabr Al-Sayed Abu Labda, the head of a sniper cell in Hamas’ Rafah Brigade, the military announced in a separate statement on Friday.
Al-Sayed “carried out sniper training across the Gaza Strip aimed at harming Israeli civilians and IDF troops operating in the area of the Yellow Line,” the statement said.
He had been attempting to reconstruct the terror organization’s capabilities, violating the ongoing ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, the IDF added.
END
SAUDI ARABIA/USA/HOUTHIS
MbS Begs Trump For Bigger Anti-Houthi Intervention, As Over 100 US Advisers On Ground
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 09:35 AM
We’ve been documenting the Houthi rapid advance along Yemen’s western coast, as the Iran-aligned rebel group closes in on owning more vital Red Sea chokepoint coastal real estate.
As of Friday, after having the day prior entered the strategic port of Mocha, it is being widely reported including in Al Jazeera that the Houthis have taken control of Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline. This gives the group, and by extension Tehran, immensely greater leverage over the Bab al-Mandab Strait and vital global energy chokepoint.
The Saudis are said to be in a panic as the front lines of the Sanaa-based government they’ve long backed and weaponized collapse. In some cases Saudi coalition fighters are simply abandoning their armored vehicles and convoys.
Seeking more Washington support from the air and on the ground, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) has already made two urgent phone calls to President Trump.
Axios is reporting that in the Thursday calls MbS urged his American counterpart to launch strikes against the Houthis before they solidify control of the vital Red Sea chokepoint.
The report indicates that “Trump declined, and US officials stressed the administration has no plans to intervene directly against the Houthis for now.”
But also, “Adm. Brad Cooper, the commander of U.S. Central Command, traveled to Saudi Arabia on Thursday for urgent coordination meetings, two sources with knowledge of the matter said.” So the Iran war is has now officially gone regional.
Of course, Washington and Riyadh been through all of this before but to no effect, given the brutal air war and intermittent ground campaign of the Saudi-UAE-US coalition in Yemen from 2015 to 2022. In more recent years amid the Gaza conflict, major US Navy actions in the Red Sea did nothing to push back the Houthi threat. Repeat Israeli bombings have also done little.
But the Pentagon is still intervening in what can be called a long-running proxy war in southern Arabia, as CNN reported Thursday that over 100 US military advisers are on the ground in Saudi Arabia assisting Riyadh with intelligence and targeting support.
One unnamed official even put the number at more around 200, as part of a new Yemen-focused task force amid the ongoing escalation. A huge worry remains the safety of Hormuz crude transit ‘bypass’ routes.
New Houthi military announcement via Telegram:
Yemen’s armed forces say maritime navigation is safe for all companies except Saudi vessels, which are subject to a blockade, and vow to continue striking Saudi troop buildups and escalating until the aggression and blockade on Yemen end.
The big news overnight was a report that Ansar Allah claimed to have hit Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which feeds an export terminal on the Red Sea and effectively bypasses the Hormuz chokepoint.
The Gulf crisis shows no signs of slowing as US forces took out several Iranian tankers this week and Tehran warns of further escalation. But Trump doesn’t appear to be any closer to articulating, much less seriously contemplating, an offramp to this war of his own making – which is also becoming increasingly unpopular at home
END
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES
Ukraine Wants To Tax Sex To Fund The War
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 06:30 AM
Authored by Martin Armstrong via Armstrong Economics,
How desperate must a government become before it considers taxing pornography to purchase drones for a war it cannot win?
Ukraine is now reportedly considering legalizing parts of its adult entertainment industry to generate additional tax revenue for the war against Russia. Ukrainian lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak estimates legalization could bring around $25 million annually into the government’s coffers, enough, he claims, to purchase up to 30,000 drones. The legislation has already passed its first reading in parliament and awaits further consideration.
Zelensky has agreed that parliament should consider the proposal after a petition supporting reform attracted more than 25,000 signatures.
You cannot make this stuff up.
Ukraine requires around $120 billion annually for defense, according to reporting on the proposal, and the government is scrambling everywhere it can for money. Its budget deficit exceeds $32 billion as Kyiv simultaneously negotiates with the IMF over additional financial assistance and new taxes. Europe and the United States have poured hundreds of billions into keeping this war machine operating, yet five years into the conflict Kyiv remains financially dependent upon outsiders.
The situation is even more outrageous because the government created this absurdity itself. Producing and distributing pornography remains illegal in Ukraine and can carry years in prison, yet tax authorities began demanding money from Ukrainians earning income through adult platforms. Pay the taxes and you effectively provide the government with evidence that you participated in an activity it criminalized. Refuse to pay and they can prosecute you for tax evasion. Zhelezniak himself described it as a “tragicomic situation.”
You cannot legislate human nature out of existence.
Prostitution has survived emperors, kings, dictators, democracies, communism, religious prohibitions, and every law politicians have invented. The Romans tried regulating how prostitutes could be paid and people simply devised ways around the restrictions. Make an activity illegal and government frequently creates an underground market with multiple exploiters.
That is government in its purest form.
First it declares something immoral and sends the police after you. Then it discovers you are making money, demands its percentage, and eventually considers changing the law because it desperately needs the revenue. Ukraine has simply added the insanity of war to the equation.
There is only desperation in reaching the point where politicians are calculating how many battlefield drones can be purchased from taxes on sex work. Every additional scheme to extract another dollar, euro, or hryvnia demonstrates the same underlying reality: this war has consumed Ukraine economically, financially, demographically, and socially. At some point, someone has to admit that destroying what remains of the country to finance an unwinnable war is not defending Ukraine.
END
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
COVID VACCINE INJURIES: MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER..
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS/ENERGY COMMENTARIES
THURSDAY NIGHT
Oil Tanker Rates Hit Record Highs as Middle East Shipping Risks Soar
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 09:40 PM
By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com
Oil tanker rates have jumped to record highs as escalating risks to shipping in and out of the Middle East are prompting traders and tanker operators to undertake inefficient and more expensive trade routes.
While the crude oil supply is actually there, shipping it through the Strait of Hormuz remains a very risky endeavor, especially in light of the escalating U.S.-Iran tanker war in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, while Saudi Arabia has started to move crude cargoes out of the region through the north of the Red Sea and from Egypt’s Mediterranean ports.
The much longer workarounds are tying tankers and supertankers for longer with the shippers, tightening the market of available vessels so much that rates are skyrocketing to all-time highs.
For example, the benchmark daily rate for a very large crude carrier (VLCC) to ship oil from the Middle East to China has hit a record high of almost $800,000, per data compiled by Bloomberg.
The price of chartering a supertanker to ship crude from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia has now hit a lump-sum fee of $29.5 million per run, and that’s not even factoring in fees for additional war risks or unexpected delays.
“The VLCC positions list is now so tight that no one would be too surprised if we see the WS 400 mark breached for a Fujairah/East run off a prompt-ish position before long, crazy as it may sound,” shipbroker Fearnleys said in its latest weekly report for the week ended September 9.
“The oil still needs to get out through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranians have increased efforts to stop that from happening. It’s a fragile state of affairs,” the shipbroker added.
“There’s quite a few bottlenecks all at the same time,” Alex Grant, Equinor’s global head of crude, products and liquids trading, told Bloomberg on the sidelines of the APPEC petroleum conference in Singapore.
“The market is quite stressed with all of that, and that’s showing up in the shipping rates.”
END
zero hedge…..EARLY FRIDAY MORNING;
BALTIC EXCHANGE:
huge increase of rates soaring to around $800,000 per day for transiting oil
Mideast Chaos Sends Supertanker Rates Soaring To $800,000 A Day
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 02:45 AM
Supertanker rates on the Baltic Exchange’s benchmark Middle East-to-China shipping route have surged to a staggering $800,000 a day. With US forces having destroyed five Iranian-linked tankers and Tehran threatening further escalation in recent days, prospects for near-term stabilization remain limited.
The freight surge signals that crude oil and refined products continue to flow but are becoming increasingly costly to transport out of the Gulf region to global markets.
According to Bloomberg, US Gulf-to-Asia shipments on very large crude carriers average about $29.5 million per voyage, equivalent to $15 a barrel before any additional war-risk charges or unexpected delays.
Kpler expects VLCC earnings to remain above $100,000 a day into early next year, compared with historical levels that exceeded $45,000. Morgan Stanley analysts point out that two-year leasing rates could surge another 20% to 30%.
Manu Sehgal, vice president of strategy and feedstock supply at Indian refiner HPCL-Mittal Energy, told Bloomberg that “crude volume is there. What’s hampering it is the transit; what’s hampering it is the shipping.”
A fleet of tankers conducting ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman is helping keep barrels flowing through the Hormuz chokepoint. Vitol’s CEO estimated earlier this week that roughly 10 million barrels a day were crossing the waterway, while Goldman analysts put that figure at around 15 million.
The Baltic Exchange’s new Gulf of Oman-to-East Asia benchmark has surged 85% since inception, reaching almost $386,000 a day this week.
This means surging tanker rates add another layer of inflation pressure for global central banks. Those costs can filter through to gasoline, diesel, freight, and ultimately consumer goods on store shelves.
END
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON:
Mideast Chaos Sends Supertanker Rates Soaring To Near Record $1 Million A Day
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 11:52 AM
Summary:
- Gulf Tanker Rates Hyperinflate
- A day later: Mideast Chaos Sends Supertanker Rates Soaring To Nearly $1 Million A Day
- Mideast Chaos Sends Supertanker Rates Soaring To $800,000 A Day
Supertanker rates on the Baltic Exchange’s benchmark Middle East-to-China shipping route have jumped to nearly $1 million a day.
The jump in tanker rates comes as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the southern Red Sea falls further under the control of Iran-backed Houthi rebels, while the Strait of Hormuz remains highly contested, an indication that two critical maritime chokepoints are under severe threat.
The squeeze on shipping costs extends beyond the Persian Gulf area, with VLCCs traveling from Oman to China costing $571,000 a day, even though Oman’s ports sit outside Hormuz. That is roughly 10 times last year’s average.
For buyers seeking alternative supplies in the Gulf of America, shipping crude from the US Gulf to China now adds about $18 a barrel.
The windfall for shipowners is becoming a cost shock for the wider energy market.
The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF (BWET), which gives investors exposure to the cost of transporting crude oil by sea through tanker freight futures, has had an impressive run so far this year:
With inventories falling and buyers competing for supplies, freight is threatening to become another bottleneck, keeping available barrels from reaching the markets that need them.
THURSDAY NIGHT
PAKISTAN/LNG
Pakistan’s Energy Crisis Set To Ease As Qatari LNG Breaks Through Hormuz
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 08:55 PM
Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,
Pakistan is about to get some energy relief with tankers carrying Qatari LNG set to arrive in the country this month. The first cargo is seen arriving as early as Thursday, Bloomberg reported, citing ship-tracking data.
Pakistan has been struggling to keep the lights on after Qatar declared force majeure on its exports following Iranian strikes that caused damage to its Ras Laffan LNG hub. Since then, Pakistan has been forced to turn to spot LNG markets and pay hefty premiums for the occasional shipment. Qatar was the biggest supplier of liquefied natural gas to the South Asian nation, under long-term contracts.
The country has issued several prompt liquefied gas delivery tenders over the past three months, consistently paying $20 per million British thermal units and more-a tender earlier this month ended without an order, after Pakistan’s state gas company only received one offer, whose price was $27 per million British thermal units. This is three times higher than pre-war LNG prices that Pakistan was paying.
“The international LNG price is around $23.18 per MMBtu, whereas the bid received was $26.969 per MMBtu. The price was considered too high, so a fresh tender has been issued,” a senior Pakistan LNG Limited executive said, as quoted by Pakistani media earlier this month. Following the failure of that tender, Pakistan LNG issued a new one.
The Qatari cargoes would go some way towards alleviating the energy crisis in Pakistan, where power generation costs have soared due to the gas crunch and rolling blackouts have become a fixture of life, sometimes lasting for 24 hours in some parts of the country. As of July, these were 38% higher than a year earlier and since then have likely one even higher as LNG on the spot market has also trended higher while QatarEnergy announced an extension of its force majeure.
END
FRIDAY MORNING:
Brent Nears $110 Then Tumbles On IEA Demand Destruction Warning As Houthis Threaten Saudi Oil Escape Route, Diesel Shock Goes Global
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 07:20 AM
Brent crude futures nearly topped $110 a barrel in the overnight hours but fell 3.5% to the $103 handle by 6 a.m. ET, after reports from the International Energy Agency that soaring fuel costs could spark global demand destruction.
The global benchmark remained on course for its biggest weekly advance since July. Prices have soared more than 70% this year as the Hormuz chokepoint remains disrupted, energy infrastructure attacks continue from the Gulf to the Russia-Ukraine theater, and renewed Chinese buying of crude in various global markets bids up local prices.
“A resumption of a full-blown Saudi-Houthi war would be a potential catalyst for our high oil price scenario coming to fruition,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft wrote in a note.
The big news overnight was a report that Iran-backed Houthis claimed to have hit Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which feeds an export terminal on the Red Sea and effectively bypasses the Hormuz chokepoint. There’s also news that the Houthis advanced toward coastal areas bordering the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait, gaining ground in their push to seize Mokha near the southern end of the Red Sea.
The Gulf crisis shows no signs of slowing as US forces took out several Iranian tankers this week and Tehran warns of further escalation.
More bad news for global energy markets: Saudi Arabia’s oil production fell again last month to its lowest level since 1990.
Capital Economics commodities expert Hamad Hussain warned that depleted inventories and early signs of recovering Chinese demand leave prices vulnerable to another interruption in Middle East flows.
Former Goldman Sachs commodities chief and current Real Macro head Jeff Currie joined CNBC TV on Thursday and said that it’s actually Chinese buyers who are bidding up crude: “Actually, I put a bigger weight on China coming back to the market,” he said, citing strong buying interest after returning from Singapore and Hong Kong.
The more consequential crisis isn’t necessarily about crude supply, because the global economy doesn’t run on that. Instead, it’s the diesel shortage rippling through the world. The US diesel crack spread currently trades around $110 a barrel. Prices at US pumps for the industrial fuel average $6 a gallon, a record high, while prices at some gas stations in California topped $9.99 per gallon.
“Brent holding above $105 with Houthi/Bab al-Mandab disruptions raising fears of a double chokepoint. 10y bunds yields highest since 2009, 10y US within reach of the 5% level,” UBS analyst Justinus Steinhorst wrote in a note.
However, there is some good diplomatic news from the Gulf: Bloomberg reports that the six-member bloc of Gulf states is considering meeting with Iranian officials next week to discuss the Hormuz chokepoint.
END
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: CONFIRMED DAMAGE
US Officials Confirm Saudi East-West Pipeline Attacked By Drones, Badly Damaged
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 12:53 PM
Summary
- Saudi oil pipeline attacked: US officials confirmed strikes on Saudi pumping stations, with drones likely launch from Iraq.
- Houthis expand in Yemen: Houthi forces are gaining control along the Red Sea coast, threatening key shipping routes.
- Oil and diesel prices rising: Russia’s damaged refining capacity & shipping disruptions are also tightening fuel markets.
- Stagflation risk grows: Higher energy and shipping costs could push inflation higher while weakening global economic growth.
US Officials Confirm East-West Pipeline Was Attacked
Open source satellite imaging has shown the crucial ‘Hormuz bypass’ East-West oil pipeline that cuts straight across Saudi Arabia has been on fire. A some 80km to 100km giant smoke plume has been observed. The damaged section is said to be located near the town of Al Mesba’ah.
Amid speculation that this is probably the result of a major Houthi attack out of Yemen, CNN in a new Friday report cites two US officials who’ve given confirmation that the pipeline was struck by projectiles on Thursday. Iraq was named as possible attack origin point. According to the report:
An early analysis found that pump stations, which are located next to the pipeline itself, were hit, one of the US officials said. A satellite image taken Friday appears to show extensive fire damage at one pumping station, and an image of a different pumping station, taken Thursday, showed a small fire sending up plumes of thick, black smoke.
It could have been the result of a drone attack by paramilitaries operating out of Iraq. “It was not immediately clear who was responsible for the strikes or if sections of the pipeline itself were damaged but one of the officials said it was struck by drones originating from Iraq,” CNN reports. “It was also not immediately clear how long it would take to repair the damage, sources said.”
News on Saudi oil has gone from worse to worse, as in Yemen the Houthis have reportedly taken over the entire Red Sea coastline. They have renewed the threats to attack all Saudi (as well as Israeli) shipping, but have also sought to assure transit is ‘safe’ for other international vessels.
Threats Rapidly Converge
Three converging threats to watch are intensifying pressure on global energy markets: damage to Russian refining capacity, ongoing disruption at Hormuz, and new, expanding Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping. The resulting physical market squeeze extends well beyond the Gulf area. Record-high diesel prices in the US and other markets, such as China’s return to buying crude, raise the risk that oil markets will remain exceptionally tight into the Northern Hemisphere winter.
What we know so far is that the Russia-Ukraine war has knocked out a whole bunch of refining capacity and halted exports of critical fuels from Russia. The Gulf area has seen an escalation in fighting this week as the Hormuz chokepoint remains open with tanker transits but still limited and far from pre-war levels.
Couple this all with the chokepoint madness still being disrupted and new developments overnight: Iran-backed Houthi forces advanced toward a strategic port near the southern entrance to the Red Sea, threatening to tighten control on a second critical shipping corridor.
Houthis Take Yemen’s Red Sea Coast
Bloomberg reported that Houthi rebels have gained ground around Mokha, with some geopolitical analysts reporting that the Yemeni port city has fallen.
Its fall would give the Houthis another coastal stronghold alongside Hodeida and the ability to control more of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, suggesting commercial traffic could begin to drop and transits would be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing shipping time and freight costs.
Alternative Route: Cape of Good Hope
On top of this, China has returned to global oil markets, and ex-Goldman Commodities head Jeff Currie warned Thursday that this is the real driver of soaring crude prices.
Saudi Key East-West Pipeline on Fire
Also overnight, Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline appears to have been struck by Houthi forces, which the pipeline served as an oil escape route, effectively bypassing the Hormuz chokepoint to the Red Sea.
Andrew Farrand, a political-risk analyst at Horizon Engage, described the rapid Houthi advance as a major setback for Saudi efforts in Yemen, warning that it could bring the Houthis closer to territory overlooking the waterway’s narrowest section.
Simultaneous disruption of Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Strait of Hormuz creates a two-sided squeeze: less energy can leave the Gulf, while tankers that can move face longer, more expensive journeys. It also threatens Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea terminal.
Beyond Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, these are the main straits to watch:
Global Maritime Chokepoints
Where the routes narrow
What could interrupt commercial traffic
Stage Set for Stagflationary Squeeze?
The twin disruptions threaten shipping corridors that carried roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade through Hormuz and through Bab el-Mandeb, while jeopardizing a Red Sea shipping route central to trade between Asia and Europe and risking ignition of a stagflationary squeeze as diesel prices soar to new highs that eventually feed into supply chains, freight costs, and ultimately, at a lag, higher prices on store shelves.
END
THE GLOBAL OIL SCENE: FRIDAY NOON
Piper Sandler Sounds Alarm: Shrinking Oil Buffers To Collide With Winter Demand
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 11:40 AM
Piper Sandler global energy strategist Jan Stuart wrote in a note on Friday that the physical oil market is flashing major warning signs, including disrupted exports, depleted inventories, and an ongoing diesel shortage crisis, all converging ahead of stronger fourth-quarter demand.
Saudi Arabia’s export squeeze is becoming a major problem. The kingdom’s crude shipments remain halved as Iran-backed Houthis begin to dent Red Sea loadings while Persian Gulf shipments remain depressed. Houthis overnight seized Mokha in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, suggesting commercial traffic could begin to drop.
Some crude crosses Hormuz through “dark” tanker passages along the Omani channel. But the partial recovery has not restored regional exports: Middle Eastern crude loadings averaged 13.3 million barrels a day in the week through Sept. 9, with Stuart warning that the shortfall is roughly 5 million to 6 million barrels a day.
Stuart added more color on the current state of the Gulf energy market:
The Flowing Oil Data Digest
Dire Straits, Choking Oil Exports Through Two of Three Mideast Waterways
Sure this is “not a war” but the oil market is rallying like it is: Futures gained ~$10/b on the week (so far); structure is exploding; physical markets in Asia are leading – and are most dependent on Mideast exports. And, adding insult to economic injury, surging crude oil values are barely compressing diesel margins.
Seems to us that oil markets began to price several deep problems:
A) there are no easy, quick resolutions to the war in the Mideast or the one in Ukraine.
B) tellingly, Washington hasn’t claimed an “imminent deal” in weeks – ask us for color from conversations with DC insiders at our 12th Annual Piper Sandler Macro Conference.
C) physical market behavior underscores that there are real supply deficits of crude oil, 3-4 mb/d, and traded diesel supply remains short too.
In vogue suddenly are Saudi troubles the Houthis have curtailed Red Sea crude oil loadings, while its Persian Gulf loadings remain moribund. Aggregate KSA crude oil exports have averaged barely 3 mb/d (less than half of ‘normal’) since late July. This week, Houthi attacks and military advances threaten a longer lasting choke-hold. Absolutely fascinating is that reportedly Pres Trump twice declined to assist MbS who, again reportedly, asked for him to bomb the Houthis.
Lastly, sentiment is turning on Q2 demand’ destruction’ that in fact that was more ‘suppression’ (i.e. it comes back again) and inventory depletion (i.e. unsustainable). Inside: market signals and loadings data.
2026 Brent: Spot Brent v Dubai pulling away
Shape of the Brent Futures Curve (month 1-6)
MARKET SIGNALS AND DATA TO WATCH – MIDEAST LOADINGS AND DIESEL SCARCITY
Things are tightening up in a hurry, as we approach peak seasonal demand in Q4 with far less inventory
Asia’s refiners scramble to fill Q4 schedules …
- Much is made of “China buying again” we don’t know if it is, but it strikes us that given historic diesel margins, every refiner that can run crude oil is buying to run At the margin, that means that even simple, hugely cost disadvantaged refiners will want more crude oil.
- And the easy to get at oil released during the MoU phase of the war on Iran – some 200-300 mbs worth – has been digested, nor is there nearly as much inventory left to draw on.
- Despite sustained relatively high crude oil exports through the SoH – or about 9 mb/d, total Mideast exports remain some 5 mb/d below normal judging from the latest daily loadings data, see p. 2.
- China’s crude oil buying may have picked up, it was way too low (down >4mb/d to 7 mb/d). We model imports of 10 mb/d in Q4
- We think and model that China did not suppress its final oil product demand by that much and instead drew some 250+ mbs from its vast inventories. In an open-ended supply disruption no one (China included) can keep drawing down inventories.
Indicative Margins: ~2x normal on global supply shock diesel, rbob and the gross 3:2:1 margin v dated brent
Strength (=backwardation) in Key Crude Oil Markets (Futures contracts 2-7, $/b)
China’s Crude Oil Inventory: Volume & import cover
WHAT FLOWS: MIDEAST OIL LOADINGS & TRANSITS, IMPLIED DEFICITS OF ~5 MB/D
For the record, since July 15th overt SoH crossings have been sharply reduced; but there is a more or less steady flow of dark passages through the Omani channel
- Mideast crude oil loadings averaged 13.3 mb/d (7 days ending September 9th). That’s a post-MoU record.
- But traffic in the SoH is still far from normal
- And Saudi Red Sea flows remain below wartime par…
We compile tanker loadings (Petro-Logistics) and monitor refiner utilization (OilX et al).
- Mideast crude oil loadings are running about 6 mb/d below normal with SoH gains offset by Red Sea declines
- The market seems to have finally woken up about Red Sea issues – these involve the UAE, Oman and Saudi’s Red Sea terminals. Latest: outside Hormuz is down ~3 mb/d from peak
- Add to that a deficit of some ~2-3 mb/d of NGLs and add to that deficit our guesstimate of some 3 mb/d of the roughly 5 mb/d of clean products that were exported from the Mideast and that will not run normally for a while yet …
Redirecting of flow through new-/expanded-pipes will take anywhere from 1-2 yrs (UAE & Saudi) to from 3+ yrs to never
Mideast loadings rise to 13.3 mb/d Based on daily tracking
Mideast Port Loading Deltas of Crude Oil + Cond.
To sum up, the partial recovery in Hormuz flows has not resolved the physical supply deficit, while new pressure on Red Sea exports is derailing the critical alternative route. With inventories depleted and fourth-quarter demand approaching, the market has less capacity to absorb further disruption, leaving crude and diesel prices vulnerable to even higher prices.
END
Piper Sandler Sounds Alarm: Shrinking Oil Buffers To Collide With Winter Demand
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 11:40 AM
Piper Sandler global energy strategist Jan Stuart wrote in a note on Friday that the physical oil market is flashing major warning signs, including disrupted exports, depleted inventories, and an ongoing diesel shortage crisis, all converging ahead of stronger fourth-quarter demand.
Saudi Arabia’s export squeeze is becoming a major problem. The kingdom’s crude shipments remain halved as Iran-backed Houthis begin to dent Red Sea loadings while Persian Gulf shipments remain depressed. Houthis overnight seized Mokha in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, suggesting commercial traffic could begin to drop.
Some crude crosses Hormuz through “dark” tanker passages along the Omani channel. But the partial recovery has not restored regional exports: Middle Eastern crude loadings averaged 13.3 million barrels a day in the week through Sept. 9, with Stuart warning that the shortfall is roughly 5 million to 6 million barrels a day.
Stuart added more color on the current state of the Gulf energy market:
The Flowing Oil Data Digest
Dire Straits, Choking Oil Exports Through Two of Three Mideast Waterways
Sure this is “not a war” but the oil market is rallying like it is: Futures gained ~$10/b on the week (so far); structure is exploding; physical markets in Asia are leading – and are most dependent on Mideast exports. And, adding insult to economic injury, surging crude oil values are barely compressing diesel margins.
Seems to us that oil markets began to price several deep problems:
A) there are no easy, quick resolutions to the war in the Mideast or the one in Ukraine.
B) tellingly, Washington hasn’t claimed an “imminent deal” in weeks – ask us for color from conversations with DC insiders at our 12th Annual Piper Sandler Macro Conference.
C) physical market behavior underscores that there are real supply deficits of crude oil, 3-4 mb/d, and traded diesel supply remains short too.
In vogue suddenly are Saudi troubles the Houthis have curtailed Red Sea crude oil loadings, while its Persian Gulf loadings remain moribund. Aggregate KSA crude oil exports have averaged barely 3 mb/d (less than half of ‘normal’) since late July. This week, Houthi attacks and military advances threaten a longer lasting choke-hold. Absolutely fascinating is that reportedly Pres Trump twice declined to assist MbS who, again reportedly, asked for him to bomb the Houthis.
Lastly, sentiment is turning on Q2 demand’ destruction’ that in fact that was more ‘suppression’ (i.e. it comes back again) and inventory depletion (i.e. unsustainable). Inside: market signals and loadings data.
2026 Brent: Spot Brent v Dubai pulling away
Shape of the Brent Futures Curve (month 1-6)
MARKET SIGNALS AND DATA TO WATCH – MIDEAST LOADINGS AND DIESEL SCARCITY
Things are tightening up in a hurry, as we approach peak seasonal demand in Q4 with far less inventory
Asia’s refiners scramble to fill Q4 schedules …
- Much is made of “China buying again” we don’t know if it is, but it strikes us that given historic diesel margins, every refiner that can run crude oil is buying to run At the margin, that means that even simple, hugely cost disadvantaged refiners will want more crude oil.
- And the easy to get at oil released during the MoU phase of the war on Iran – some 200-300 mbs worth – has been digested, nor is there nearly as much inventory left to draw on.
- Despite sustained relatively high crude oil exports through the SoH – or about 9 mb/d, total Mideast exports remain some 5 mb/d below normal judging from the latest daily loadings data, see p. 2.
- China’s crude oil buying may have picked up, it was way too low (down >4mb/d to 7 mb/d). We model imports of 10 mb/d in Q4
- We think and model that China did not suppress its final oil product demand by that much and instead drew some 250+ mbs from its vast inventories. In an open-ended supply disruption no one (China included) can keep drawing down inventories.
Indicative Margins: ~2x normal on global supply shock diesel, rbob and the gross 3:2:1 margin v dated brent
Strength (=backwardation) in Key Crude Oil Markets (Futures contracts 2-7, $/b)
China’s Crude Oil Inventory: Volume & import cover
WHAT FLOWS: MIDEAST OIL LOADINGS & TRANSITS, IMPLIED DEFICITS OF ~5 MB/D
For the record, since July 15th overt SoH crossings have been sharply reduced; but there is a more or less steady flow of dark passages through the Omani channel
- Mideast crude oil loadings averaged 13.3 mb/d (7 days ending September 9th). That’s a post-MoU record.
- But traffic in the SoH is still far from normal
- And Saudi Red Sea flows remain below wartime par…
We compile tanker loadings (Petro-Logistics) and monitor refiner utilization (OilX et al).
- Mideast crude oil loadings are running about 6 mb/d below normal with SoH gains offset by Red Sea declines
- The market seems to have finally woken up about Red Sea issues – these involve the UAE, Oman and Saudi’s Red Sea terminals. Latest: outside Hormuz is down ~3 mb/d from peak
- Add to that a deficit of some ~2-3 mb/d of NGLs and add to that deficit our guesstimate of some 3 mb/d of the roughly 5 mb/d of clean products that were exported from the Mideast and that will not run normally for a while yet …
Redirecting of flow through new-/expanded-pipes will take anywhere from 1-2 yrs (UAE & Saudi) to from 3+ yrs to never
Mideast loadings rise to 13.3 mb/d Based on daily tracking
Mideast Port Loading Deltas of Crude Oil + Cond.
To sum up, the partial recovery in Hormuz flows has not resolved the physical supply deficit, while new pressure on Red Sea exports is derailing the critical alternative route. With inventories depleted and fourth-quarter demand approaching, the market has less capacity to absorb further disruption, leaving crude and diesel prices vulnerable to even higher prices.
Professional subscribers can track energy market trends here at our new Marketdesk.ai porta
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA/USA
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING\
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1603 UP 0.0008
USA/ YEN 154.30 UP 0.183 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!! BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE. URGES PENSION AND INSUANCE FUNDS TO BUY JAPANESE BONDS//
YEN CARRY TRADERS MURDERED
GBP/USA 1.3509 UP 0.0002 OR 2 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3844 UP 0.0009 //CDN DOLLAR DOWN 9 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 46.29 PTS OR 1.18%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 195.97 PTS OR 0.79%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.18%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 321.96 PTS OR 1.27%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 46.29 PTS OR 1.18%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .18%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 1220.95 PTS OR 1.87%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4354.00
silver:$64.31
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 48.61 UP 13 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 84/35 ROUBLE// DOWN 0 ROUBLE AND 40 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.3418 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.8981 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.950 UP 10 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.645 UP 16 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early FRIDAY MORNING: 99.11 UP 6 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.874% UP 4 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2,9880% UP 7 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 4.060 UP 3 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.9710 UP 6 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 4.3720 UP 2 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.5075 UP 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1585 DOWN 0.0026 OR 26 basis points
USA/Japan: 154.05 DOWN 0.411 OR YEN IS UP 41 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.3469 UP 0 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.9075 UP 0 BASIS POINTS.
CANADIAN DOLLAR DOWN 32 BASIS PTS TO 1.3868
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY 6.7083 ON SHORE ..DOWN
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH DOWN TO 6.7079
TURKISH LIRA: 48.61 UP 11 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 0 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.947% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.338 UP 0 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.611 UP 6 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM $4342.00
SILVER AT 10;00: $64.27
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest ratesFRIDAY
DAY CLOSING TIME/ 12:00 AM///
London: CLOSED UP 41.52 PTS OR 0.39%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 207.46 PTS OR 0.82%
FRANCE: UP 63.01 OR 0.78 PTS
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 178.70 PTS OR 0.91%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 704.63 PTS OR 1.36%
WTI Oil price 99.29 10.00 EST/
Brent Oil: 104.20 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 84.17 /// ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 22/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.941 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.636 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM//
Euro vs USA 1.1595 DOWN 0.0016 OR 16 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3524 UP 0.0015 OR 15 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 5.3474 DOWN 2 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.910 DOWN 2 IN BASIS PTS.
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.994 UP 6 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 4.057 UP 6 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 153.72 DOWN 0.751 OR YEN UP 75 BASIS PTS//GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM 160.00/ EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3869 UP 0.0034 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 34 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 100.53
Brent OIL: 104.88
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS pts to 4.972
USA 30 yr bond yield: DOWN 1 PTS to 5.353%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.625 UP 8 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.9450 UP 0 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.6460 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.12 UP 7 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 48.60 UP 10 BASIS PTS GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 84.48 DOWN 0 AND 54/100 roubles //
GOLD $4,347.20 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 64.37 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 508.71 POINTS OR 0.98%
NASDAQ 100 UP 264.93 PTS OR 0.91%
VOLATILITY INDEX 15.90 DOWN 2.01 PTS OR 11.27%
GLD: $ 398.77 UP 2.41 PTS OR 0.617%
SLV/ 58.12 PTS UP 0.62 OR 1.08%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 159.46 PTS OR 0.45%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Astra, Ayatollahs, & Accelerating Inflation: The Week When Oil Rewrote Warsh’s Playbook
HEADLINE CPI:
C P I
US CPI (Consumer Price Index) for August 2026, released today (September 11, 2026) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 a.m. ET:
bls.govKey figures
- Headline CPI-U (seasonally adjusted): +0.4% month-over-month (after +0.1% in July).
- Headline CPI-U (not seasonally adjusted, year-over-year): +3.4% (unchanged from July’s +3.4%).
- Core CPI (all items less food and energy): +0.3% MoM (after +0.2% in July); +2.4% YoY (down from +2.5%).
- CPI-U index level (NSA): 334.980 (1982-84=100).
Main drivers
- Gasoline rose 3.9% in August and accounted for over one-third of the monthly all-items increase.
- Energy index: +2.1% MoM / +16.3% YoY.
- Shelter: +0.3% MoM.
- Food: +0.1% MoM / +2.7% YoY (food away from home +0.3%).
The next CPI release (for September 2026) is scheduled for October 14, 2026. Full details are available on the BLS website.
bls.gov
END
DETAILS CPI;
Rate-Hike Odds Soar Despite Lowest Core Consumer Price Inflation Since 2021
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 08:42 AM
Following fuel-driven jump in Producer Prices, consensus was for a concomitant jump MoM in Consumer prices this morning, after last month’s decline as energy prices have rebounded (though we warned that amid all the interventionist-y chatter, nothing would surprise us less than ‘cool’ print to offset the PPI scare).
And analysts were right with headline CPI rising 0.4% MoM (exactly as expected) – biggest MoM since May – but prices rose 3.5% YoY (in line with expectations and flat to the prir month)…
Core Services accelerated…
…BUT Fuel prices dominated the rise in headline CPI…
Just like we saw yesterday with PPI, the rebound in crude (and refined product) prices snapped CPI’s Energy component notably higher…
Energy helping on a 6m annualized basis but hurting on a 3m annualized basis…
Core CPI rose 0.3% (0.29% rounded up) MoM (hotter than the 0.2% exp) but on a YoY basis it decline from 2.5% to 2.4% – the lowest since March 2021…
The much-watched SuperCore CPI (Services ex-shelter) rose notably on a YoY basis…
…with a big spike in Education costs…
As an aside, real average hourly earnings growth was negative for the 5th month in a row (is it any wonder consumer confidence is low)…
Understandably, a lower CPI print is better for markets, and JPM’s market scenario analysis affirms that:
- Core MoM prints above 0.30%. SPX declines 1.5% – 2.5%; Odds 10.0%
- Core MoM prints between 0.25% – 0.30%. SPX declines 25bp – 1%, Odds 25.0%
- Core MoM prints between 0.20% – 0.25%. SPX gains 50bp – 1.25%, Odds 30.0%
- Core MoM prints between 0.15% – 0.20%. SPX gains 1% – 1.5%, Odds 25.0%
- Core MoM prints below 0.15%. SPX gains 1.5% – 2%, Odds 10.0%
For now, rate-hike odds soared to over 90%, almost certain pricing for a 25bps move higher by Warsh and his pals next week…
Finally, top Goldman short-term macro trader, Brian Bingham, noted that:
“The Fed is now in the most paradoxical of all positions, beholden to a single data print and potentially reactive to the rounding on the ECO screen…
Warsh told the market in his first press conference that he didn’t want to focus on the number to the right of the decimal point, but now it’s the number to the right of that one that will be the determinant. Waller’s speech on Thursday was surprisingly and overtly dovish, confirming our view that the Board skews heavily if not unanimously dovish relative to the regional presidents, but offered little new information beyond implicitly confirming a 30bp core CPI will merit a hike.
The market appears to be penciling the over/under at 25, but we struggle to see a meaningful rally on an in-line 20bp core print following this week’s jobs report; in a world where the meeting goes in pricing greater than 50% chance of a hike, the risk of the bond market interpreting a hold as a policy error seem far greater than the harm of hiking into above-target inflation.”
The jawboning is over… it’s shit or get off the pot time for Kevin (every new Fed head is tested early on by the markets).
END
US 2026 Budget Deficit Hits $1.97 Trillion With One Month Left; Interest At Record $1.4 Trillion
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 03:20 PM
With DOGE disbanded more than a year ago, and tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, the US is no longer even pretending that there is any hope to normalize spending, or any kind of happy ending to the US debt trajectory.
At 2pm today the US Treasury published the latest, August, monthly budget deficit data, and it should come as no surprise to anyone that things are looking ever worse.
Total US receipts were $360 billion, a modest improvement from the $344 billion a year ago, with individual income taxes accounting for $179 billion, or half of the total, and the bulk of the balance coming from Social Insurance and Retirement receipts of $141 billion.
On the spending side, things were ugly: total outlays were $527 billion, a modest improvement to the $689.1 billion a year ago, but much of that had to do with the calendar impact of tariffs.
Putting receipts and spending in context, a chart of the trailing 6 months of government revenue and spending shows that the two trendlines are rapidly diverging, with spending on pace to surpass the covid all time high, even as government revenue remains stuck in a much more narrow range.
The difference between the two, is of course, the US budget deficit, which in August was $166.8 billion, an improvement from July’s massive $432 billion deficit, which however was the result of some calendar discrepancies between the two months. What matters more is that fir the first 11 months of fiscal 2026 (with just one month left in the fiscal year), the total US deficit is now $1.97 trillion, identical with last year, although since 2025 saw a big drop in the final month of the year, we are confident that 2026 will be about $200bn worse than the previous year when all is said and done, and be the 3rd worst year for the US deficit on record, with just the crisis years of 2020 and 2021 worse.
Finally, turning to the elephant in the room, namely interest expense, in August the US spent $98 billion on gross interest expense, which means that with 1 month left in fiscal 2026, total US interest spending is now $1.267 trillion, up 12% from a year ago…
… while on an LTM basis, it is now a record $1.4 trillion, and is set to surpass Social Security (which was $1.66 trillion LTM but growing much slower), by the end of 2028.
And since 23% of marketable US debt is now T-Bills, which will see an immediate impact from any Fed hikes, the moments the Fed raises rates, US interest expense is going to rise even more sharply, signaling that while the debt endgame for the US is guaranteed, the only question is whether Warsh will bring it on even faster.
END
WRAP UP
Markets chop, and yields flatten after hot core CPI boosts Fed rate hike bets – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 04:04 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries down, Crude down, Dollar flat, Gold up.
- REAR VIEW: Hotter-than-expected core CPI M/M bolsters Fed rate hike bets; Saudi Arabia shut down East-West crude oil pipeline after multiple attacks; Trump reportedly rejected Saudi MBS request to launch strikes against Houthis; White House weighing how to use DPA to expand US refining capacity; Iran plans to hold a regional meeting with Persian gulf countries on Monday in Oman; UoM consumer sentiment falls; IEA OMR revises world 2026 oil demand forecast lower; ORCL earnings beat fails to impress.
- COMING UP: Data: Swedish CPIF Final (Aug), Canadian CPI (Aug). Speakers: ECB’s Schnabel, Cipollone, Lagarde.
- WEEK IN FOCUS: Highlights include FOMC, BoJ, BoE, Inflation from UK, Canada and Japan. Click here for the full report.
- WEEKLY US EARNINGS ESTIMATES: LEN the only earning all week. Click here for the full report.
More Newsquawk in 2 steps:
- 1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
- 2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
MARKET WRAP
Stocks gained on Friday, with broad-based strength seeing the SPX, NDX and DJI rise by around 1%, while the equal-weight S&P gained c. 0.8%. The majority of sectors finished higher, with Communication Services, Technology and Consumer Discretionary outperforming, while Utilities, Health Care and Energy lagged; Utilities and Health Care were the only sectors to close in the red. Sentiment was initially supported by Oracle (ORCL) earnings released after-hours on Thursday, although the stock ultimately faded its gains and closed the session lower.
The highlight of the session was the US CPI report. The majority of metrics were in line with expectations, although core CPI rose 0.3% M/M, above the 0.2% forecast. The hotter-than-expected core print saw markets price a 25bps Fed rate hike next week with greater conviction, with the implied probability rising to around 86% from 70% pre-data, while several banks revised their calls from a hold to a hike.
The initial reaction to the data was hawkish, with equities, T-notes and gold coming under pressure while the Dollar rallied. However, much of the initial move subsequently reversed. The Dollar finished broadly flat, gold erased its losses to close higher, while equities more than recovered their post-data weakness and finished firmly in the green. The Treasury curve ultimately flattened, with front-end yields rising while the long end was little changed.
Front-end yields reflected the hawkish shift in near-term Fed expectations, while the relative resilience of the long end may partly have reflected position squaring following the recent backup in yields, particularly at the long end. The move may also have reflected some concern that tighter monetary policy could ultimately weigh on growth further out. In FX, the Yen and Antipodeans outperformed, while the CHF and CAD lagged.
Crude prices settled lower, paring some of the sharp gains seen earlier in the week after the FT reported that Gulf foreign ministers are planning to meet with their Iranian counterpart as part of efforts by Oman and Iran to secure a deal on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, US President Trump reportedly rejected a Saudi request to strike the Houthis. Nonetheless, tensions remain elevated, with a Saudi Arabian oil pipeline struck by projectiles, resulting in the temporary shutdown of the East-West pipeline. Reports also suggested that Saudi Arabia is considering launching strikes against the Houthis independently, although no final decision has been made.
Attention next week will largely be on the FOMC rate decision, where a 25bps hike is now largely priced in following Friday’s CPI report. As such, the updated SEP and dot plot, alongside Chair Warsh’s commentary, will be important in shaping expectations for the policy path beyond September. The BoJ and BoE rate decisions will also be in focus.
US
CPI: US CPI: Core CPI rose 0.29% M/M in August, above the expected 0.22%, while the Y/Y rate eased to 2.4%, in line with forecasts and below the prior 2.5%. Headline CPI rose 0.396% M/M, in line with the forecast and accelerating from the prior 0.1%, while the Y/Y rate was unchanged at 3.4%, in line with expectations. Within the report, supercore inflation accelerated to 0.51% M/M from 0.19%, while core goods inflation eased marginally and core services accelerated slightly. Following the slightly hotter-than-expected core M/M print, the implied probability of the Federal Reserve hiking by 25bps next week increased to c. 90% from 70% pre-data. The inflation side of the mandate is currently the Fed’s primary focus, so an above-consensus M/M print may be enough for the Committee to lift rates by 25bps next week. Oxford Economics writes that next week’s confab is on a knife’s edge, and while the firmer core CPI reading pushes them towards a hike, it is still no guarantee, particularly as the Fed’s preferred inflation measure is likely to prove more benign. Oxford adds that the acceleration in core prices was most notable within non-housing core services, particularly transportation services, which underscores the risk of further energy pass-through to a broader array of consumer prices.
UoM: The UoM Consumer Sentiment survey deteriorated in the preliminary September report, with headline sentiment falling to 47.8 from 51.7, below the 51.0 forecast. The weakness was led by a decline in the forward-looking expectations index to 45.8 from 51.5, also below the 50.5 forecast. The political-party breakdown showed sizeable declines among both Democrats and Republicans, while sentiment among independents was little changed from August. Five-year expected business conditions remained stable at levels well below their historical average, suggesting consumers believe the emerging risks this month have not materially worsened the longer-run outlook. Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that the downbeat report can “probably be pinned mostly on consumers’ worries about potential increases in interest rates and the renewed climb in energy prices.” Inflation expectations also moved higher, with the 1-year measure jumping to 4.6% from 4.0%, its highest since June, while long-run inflation expectations ticked up to 3.4% from 3.3%, ending three consecutive months at 3.3%.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLED 8 TICKS LOWER AT 106-03+
Yield curve flattens after hot CPI bolsters Fed rate hike bets next week. At settlement, 2-year +4.8bps at 4.634%, 3-year +4.1bps at 4.722%, 5-year +2.6bps at 4.786%, 7-year +2.1bps at 4.873%, 10-year +1.4bps at 4.975%, 20-year unchanged at 5.393%, 30-year -0.7bps at 5.359%,
THE DAY: The Treasury yield curve flattened on Friday, with front-end yields rising while long-end yields were flat following the hotter-than-expected US inflation report. August core CPI rose 0.3% M/M, above the 0.2% forecast, while the remainder of the report was broadly in line with expectations. The hotter-than-expected core print saw money markets increase the probability of a 25bp hike at next week’s FOMC to around 86%.
The hotter-than-expected inflation data, coupled with Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish commentary at Jackson Hole and last week’s robust August labour market report, has made a rate hike next week increasingly likely. Oxford Economics, however, does not view a hike as a slam dunk, arguing that the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation measure is likely to prove more benign.
With markets now heavily positioned for a September hike, the long end of the curve moved in the opposite direction, with yields declining despite the hotter CPI report. The move may partly reflect concerns that tighter monetary policy will ultimately weigh on growth and inflation further out, contributing to the flattening of the curve. However, long-end yields had also risen substantially heading into the report, suggesting some of Friday’s rally may have reflected position squaring following the recent sell-off.
Elsewhere, there was little reaction to the preliminary September UoM survey, which saw a notable downside miss in consumer sentiment, while both 1-year and long-run inflation expectations increased.
The next major test for the Treasury market will be next week’s FOMC rate decision, with a 25bp hike now largely expected. As such, attention will also be on the updated SEP and dot plot, alongside Chair Warsh’s commentary, for guidance on the policy outlook beyond September. Elsewhere, rate decisions from the BoE (expected hold) and BoJ (expected 25bp hike) will be in focus, alongside US retail sales. Treasury supply will also return with the September 20-year bond and 10-year TIPS auctions.
SUPPLY
Notes
- US to sell USD 13bln of 20yr bonds on September 15th; to settle on Sept. 18th; to sell USD 19bln of 10yr TIPS on Sept. 17th; to settle on Sept. 30th
Bills
- US to sell USD 92bln of 13-wk bills and USD 79bln of 26-wk bills on Sept. 14th, to sell USD 75bln of 6-wk bills on Sept. 15th.
STIRS / OPERATIONS
- Fed Hike Pricing via CME FedWatch: Sept 21.6bps (prev. 18.1bps), Dec 48.5bps (prev. 44.3bps)
- EFFR at 3.63% (prev. 3.63%), volumes at USD 108bln (prev. USD 110bln) on September 10th
- SOFR at 3.62% (prev. 3.64%), volumes at USD 2.921tln (prev. USD 2.859tln) on September 10th
- NY Fed RRP op demand at 5.25bln (prev. 4.74bln) across 3 counterparties (prev. 4) on September 11th
CRUDE
WTI (V6) SETTLED USD 2.43 LOWER AT 100.05/BBL; BRENT (X6) SETTLED USD 3.02 LOWER AT 104.61/BBL
The crude complex was lower on Friday, paring some of Thursday’s notable gains amid some profit-taking and slightly more constructive geopolitical developments. During the European morning, the FT reported that Gulf foreign ministers plan to meet with their Iranian counterpart as part of efforts by Oman and Iran to secure an agreement on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Elsewhere, Saudi Crown Prince MBS reportedly called President Trump twice on Thursday, urging him to launch strikes against the Houthis, although Trump declined.
More recently, and adding further pressure to crude benchmarks, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it is “planning to hold a regional meeting with the participation of the Persian Gulf coastal countries.” As such, attention will remain firmly on any further US/Iran and regional developments over the weekend following the sharp gains in WTI and Brent this week.
On the supply front, CNN reported, citing sources, that the Saudi Arabian oil pipeline system was struck by projectiles, triggering fires.
Away from the Middle East, the IEA OMR said it expects 2026 world oil demand to fall by 2.5mln BPD (prev. forecast: -1.6mln BPD), citing the impasse in US-Iran talks aimed at resolving the conflict. Meanwhile, the weekly Baker Hughes rig count saw oil rigs rise by 1 to 450, and natural gas rigs increase by 2 to 132, leaving the total rig count up 3 to 591.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.83% at 7,655, NDX +0.91% at 29,368, DJI +0.98% at 52,573, RUT +0.40% at 2,903.
SECTORS: Communication Services +1.35%, Consumer Discretionary +1.13%, Technology +1.11%, Industrials +1.07%, Real Estate +0.88%, Financials +0.62%, Consumer Staples +0.56%, Materials +0.50%, Energy +0.34%, Health -0.15%, Utilities -0.33%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.85% at 6,322, DAX 40 +0.77% at 25,557, FTSE 100 +0.39% at 10,650, CAC 40 +0.78% at 8,180, FTSE MIB +1.36% at 52,512, IBEX 35 +0.91% at 19,839, PSI +0.73% at 9,525, SMI +0.34% at 13,787, AEX +0.50% at 1,099
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Oracle (ORCL): Earnings & FY guidance beat expectations.
- Adobe (ADBE): Q4 revenue outlook falls slightly short of forecasts.
- ACV Auctions (ACVA): Copart (CPRT) to acquire ACV for $10.5/shr.
- Kroger (KR): Lowered FY26 identical sales growth outlook excluding fuel.
- RH (RH): EPS & rev. beat.
- Celsius (CELH): CEO bought 18k shares on Sept 10 for $493.8K.
- GameStop (GME): CEO Ryan Cohen bought 1mln shares on Sept 10 for $20.4M.
- Novo Nordisk (NVO): Downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
- NuScale (SMR): Downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS.
- Situational Awareness builds relationships with new brokers as it attempts rebound, reports FT; is rebuilding large trading positions in stocks such as AMD (AMD), Intel (INTC), SK Hynix (SHY), Sandisk (SNDK) and Coreweave (CRWV).
- Colgate-Palmolive (CL) is exploring the sale of some personal-care brands, and targets about USD 1bln from total sales, sources say.
FX
The Dollar Index ended the day more-or-less flat, although that only tells half the story, with the Greenback initially surging following the US CPI report after core CPI M/M came in hotter than expected. The data prompted a broad-based hawkish reaction across assets and saw markets increase expectations for a 25bp hike at next week’s FOMC meeting. Highlighting this, markets now assign around a 90% probability of a 25bp hike next Wednesday, up from around 70% pre-data, while several sell-side banks revised their Fed calls, with JPMorgan now expecting hikes in both September and December. However, despite the initial Dollar rally, the move subsequently pared in full, and then some, with no clear catalyst behind the reversal, although the move coincided with US Treasury yields paring some of their earlier gains. Looking ahead, attention turns firmly to the FOMC and whether policymakers pull the trigger on a hike, which is now largely priced in.
G10 FX performance ended the day mixed against the Greenback, despite all currencies initially weakening in the immediate aftermath of US CPI. The Yen, Antipodeans and Pound ultimately firmed, while the EUR, CAD and Swissy saw losses, albeit to varying degrees. Away from the US inflation data, UK GDP for July impressed, rising 0.4% M/M (exp. 0.0%, prev. 0.3%). While the data points to economic resilience, with the GDP beat accompanied by a sharp recovery in manufacturing, it is unlikely to materially alter expectations for next Thursday’s BoE policy decision. It does, however, provide the MPC’s hawks with further ammunition to argue for tighter policy.
For the Swissy, SNB Chairman Schlegel said the CHF exchange rate remains a challenge for the Swiss economy, although the real franc has been broadly stable since 2020. For the Euro, There were also some ECB remarks, although they did little to move the dial. Chief Economist Lane noted that if the rise in energy prices persists, it could weigh on consumption in the autumn, although he stressed that the outlook remains uncertain.
USA DATA RELEASES
affordabilitity is the big issue for the buyers:
US Home Delistings Decline As Sellers Become More Willing To Make Deals
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 05:45 AM
Property delistings nationwide recorded a year-over-year decline toward the end of this summer, as sellers showed more patience than they did a year ago and a larger share were willing to cut prices, according to Realtor.com.
The August 2026 Monthly Housing Trends Report, released on Sept. 2, indicated that delistings declined 12.6 percent in August from a year earlier, following decreases of 8.3 percent in June and 4.7 percent in July compared with the respective months in 2025.
By contrast, the December 2025 Realtor.com report showed that delistings in June and July 2025 jumped by 48 percent and 57 percent, respectively, from the same months in 2024.
Authored by As Mary Prenon reports for The Epoch Times, the report attributed the sharp rise in delistings last summer to elevated home prices, higher mortgage interest rates, and economic uncertainty.
The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was around 6.6 percent to 6.8 percent during summer 2025, according to Freddie Mac.
“With buyers and sellers far apart, the sellers’ solution is to pull that trump card and delist, rather than cut prices,” Realtor.com senior economist Jake Krimmel said at the time.
While the group’s September 2026 data showed a year-over-year drop in delistings this summer, it also noted there were 10 consecutive months of annual list-price drops.
In August, 20.4 percent of active listings had price reductions, a 0.4 percentage-point increase from July and unchanged from August 2025.
Listings in pending status declined 0.2 percent from a year earlier, following eight months of gains, which peaked at 4.1 percent in May, according to the report. Contract signings also decreased 3.7 percent compared with August 2025.
Nationally, the median list price stood at $424,500 in August, a 1.0 percent decline from July and a 1.3 percent decline from August 2025.
“August brings a mixed reading: buyer demand softened and price cuts rose modestly above last year’s pace, but sellers are still showing more patience than they did during last year’s late-summer delisting wave,” Krimmel said in a Sept. 3 statement.
“Price cuts, pending sales and delistings together can tell you whether sellers are satisfied, panicking, or somewhere in between.”
Regionally, the West and South recorded the largest share of active listings with price reductions in August, at 22 percent and 21.4 percent, respectively. The Northeast had the lowest share, at 14.1 percent, while the share in the Midwest was 19.6 percent.
Meanwhile, 1.14 million active listings across the country were reported in August, including 401,760 new listings – a 5.2 percent dip from July. The report indicates that inventory grew across all four regions, with the Midwest leading by 10.5 percent.
“August’s data shows a housing market entering its seasonal cool-down with less momentum than it had earlier this year,” Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale added in the report.
“Higher mortgage rates are meeting a point in the calendar when activity typically slows, and buyers appear to be responding more selectively.”
As of Sept. 3, Freddie Mac reported an average 6.71 percent interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage, and 5.98 percent for a 15-year fixed loan.
Only the years 2000 and 2023 had higher rates at this time of year in the last 26 years…
Looking ahead to the fall, Realtor.com said the gap in delistings compared with last year could either persist or reverse, depending on market conditions and whether sellers will continue to rely on price reductions.
“Sellers may start to get more desperate in September and subsequent months when mortgage rates are likely to remain higher than they were at this time in 2025,” the report noted.
END
UMich Sentiment ‘Expectations’ Plunge Near Record Lows As Republicans Lose Faith, Inflation Fears Rebound
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 10:10 AM
After July’s rebound to pre-war levels, a re-escalation in the MidEast (and soaring fuel costs) sent confidence back towards YTD lows. Preliminary September data was expected to show UMich headline sentiment sliding further.
‘Slide’ is not exactly how we would describe preliminary September confidence data’s collapse (headline from 51.7 to 47.8 vs 51.0 exp). The current conditions gauge fell to 50.9 from 51.9 in the previous month, while the expectations index plunged to 45.8 from 51.5 – just off record lows.
Democrats and Republicans alike posted sizable declines, while independents were little changed from August.
“Opinions of the government’s economic policy worsened about 10% this month and remain substantially below February 2026, just prior to the Iran conflict,’’ Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.
“Notably, even Republicans, who generally supported economic policy under the current administration, have exhibited a marked decline in favorability.’’
Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped from 4.0% last month to 4.6% this month, the highest reading since June.
BUT… umm… How is this possible: Democrat inflation expectations dropped, Republican and Independent inflation expectations unchanged… yet overall inflation expectations jumped the most since May 2026!?
In contrast, labor market expectations were little changed this month. Nominal income expectations held steady from the August reading. The expected probability of losing one’s own job ticked down, though it still remains well above the historical average. Aggregate unemployment expectations softened a bit, with 61% of consumers expecting unemployment to rise in the year ahead, up from 57% last month but down from 65% a year ago.
For the first time since 2023, a majority of consumers expect interest rates to tighten in the year ahead. The share of consumers anticipating rate increases surged to 62% in September, up from 49% last month and just 23% a year ago. As such, consumers broadly expect the Fed to act to restrain inflation
With a resurgence in fuel prices and trade tensions, consumers anticipate greater pressures on their pocketbooks to come.
Five-year expected business conditions remained stable at readings well below their historical average, suggesting that consumers believe that emerging risks this month may not have further worsened the long-run outlook.
Finally, as we noted earlier, real wage growth has now been negative for five straight months…
Not exactly confidence inspiring.
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
We Are In World War Xi
(Karen Siegemund/Thayer/American Greatness)
History//and important!!
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 11:25 PM
Authored by Karen Siegemund and Bradley A. Thayer via American Greatness,
As the Russo-Ukrainian war continues, Americans may blame Russian leader Vladimir Putin for starting “World War III.” It is correct that World War III has started, but its cause is the People’s Republic of China (PRC), not Russia.
The war did not start with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 or with the appeasement of Russia in the years before Putin’s foolish aggression. It started with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
The CCP has been at war with the U.S. since coming to power in 1949 and has employed many fronts in this war to undermine America and the West. The CCP’s May 2019 declaration of “People’s War” against the U.S. was CCP leader Xi Jinping’s call for a maximal effort against America. Not coincidentally, the COVID-19 outbreak soon followed. The CCP lied about COVID’s origins, refused to share information with the world, and used Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO), as its willing accomplice. Another front is CCP election interference. President Trump has revealed the CCP’s interference in the 2020 U.S. presidential election in an effort to secure President Joe Biden’s victory. Biden’s open borders allowed many hundreds of thousands of military-age Chinese men into the United States – prepositioning a force to strike against the American people in their homeland. The sustained chemical warfare attack that is fentanyl is another avenue of attack, destroying American lives and families. The CCP’s success at buying American and European politicians and journalists to serve as its agents of influence is yet another, as is TikTok.
Putin is not the source of World War III. Putin is, in the scheme of World War III, a secondary player. It is Xi who is driving World War III. It seems that the common denominator for every manifestation of this global crisis, whether overt or covert, foreign or domestic, is that Xi Jinping and his CCP have either inspired or enabled them – or at least, stand to be the principal beneficiaries. Consequently, while some call this World War III, one might consider a more apt name to be “World War Xi.”
It was Xi who gave the green light to Putin to invade Ukraine when they met in early February 2022. Xi and Putin have met over 11 times since then, most recently in Bishkek, and on each occasion, Xi has evinced strong, public support for Putin’s war. While the Russo-Ukrainian war is not yet resolved – it has lasted longer than World War I – it already has a clear winner: the PRC. The PRC provides great assistance to Russia – diplomatic, economic, and “dual-use” military aid – all of which is important to sustain Russia’s war. Beijing is receiving a prodigious return that is helping Xi win World War III.
First, by sustaining the war, the PRC occupies the U.S. and so diverts attention from its aggressive acts and preparations for war over Taiwan, which might include attacks against the U.S. itself. The U.S. intelligence community and military have only so much bandwidth, and the conflicts in Iran, Ukraine, and elsewhere in the Middle East are filling it. In addition, U.S. stockpiles are drained by the conflict in Iran and aid to Ukraine, including Patriot, ATACMS, and other missiles, and 155mm artillery rounds, all of which reduce the ability of the U.S. military to fight a high-intensity war with the PRC. In turn, a reduced U.S. arsenal hurts U.S. conventional deterrence in key theaters, like the western Pacific and Taiwan.
Second, the war cements Putin’s dependence on the PRC. Putin is Xi’s myrmidon, the supplicant in the relationship. Truly, Putin is Xi’s useful idiot. Xi drafted Putin to serve in his anti-Western alliance, which costs Putin his autonomy. Xi’s ultimate ambition is to overthrow U.S. power and position in the world and shackle the world to the PRC’s tyrannical ambitions. Putin’s interest would have been better served by emerging as the tertius gaudens of the conflict between the U.S. and the PRC. Now that he has tied Russia’s interests to the PRC, he will walk the path Xi requires of him. That requires Russia to accept diminished influence when Russia’s interests conflict with the PRC, such as in Central Asia, and to serve as an instrument of distraction for the U.S. and its NATO allies while China expands its military power and strategic ambitions. Putin must fear that once he has served his usefulness, Xi may overthrow him.
Third, Putin also serves as a lightning rod, attracting the world’s animus and attention for his acts while Xi’s genocide in Xinjiang remains too often unremarked and in the background. The PRC’s preparations for war against Taiwan and its increasingly coercive measures against the Philippines also do not receive the attention they deserve.
Fourth, as a result of the Ukraine war, Xi has secured his northern flank. Russian conventional and nuclear military power is now a tool to be employed in conjunction with or apart from the PRC’s military – but to serve Beijing’s interests. The U.S. has a “multiple front” war problem with which it must contend.
Moreover, Xi has secured his western flank in Central Asia. The Central Asian states perceive Russia as a threat due to the invasion of Ukraine and see Moscow as the junior partner in the Sino-Russian relationship. For Xi, this is a remarkable occurrence at the same time that China is committing genocide against Kazakh, Kyrgyz, and Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang or East Turkistan. The PRC’s western flank is as secure as it has been in recent years. With two flanks secure and Xi’s ability to project power expanding, it is no surprise that Xi is aggressing on the PRC’s southern and eastern flanks.
The bottom line is that the Russo-Ukrainian war greatly benefits the PRC. As the PRC gains in military might, this hurts the ability of the U.S. to defend its national security interests elsewhere, including in the western Pacific. In turn, this weakens the ability of the U.S. to deter aggression against Taiwan, the Philippines, and other states, as well as the ability to fight a war with the PRC, should deterrence fail.
The costs of the Russo-Ukrainian war are high in every respect. While Moscow may eke out a Pyrrhic victory, the true winner of the war is Beijing. The war continues because Xi wants it to, and his aid allows Putin to pursue his folly.
With its strategic position strengthened and its power projection capabilities expanding, the PRC is putting in place the conditions necessary for aggression. The U.S. and its allies should expect China to center its belligerency on its southern and eastern flanks. This aggression might be kinetic – indeed, at some point it will be so – against India on Beijing’s southern flank, against Taiwan on the eastern, and possibly even against Japan and the U.S. But the PRC will continue to employ all the tools of statecraft to bring its might to bear to cause the change it wants. Thus, the world should expect diplomatic, ideological, and economic pressure to be employed by the PRC against them, while Beijing also seeks to undermine the governments of India, Taiwan, Japan, and the U.S. We should also anticipate the continued expansion of the PRC’s domestic influence in those countries through the use of the PRC’s United Front Work Department to subvert them and other overt and covert efforts.
It is a new world. Soviet dominance over the PRC during the Cold War is now reversed. In World War III, the PRC calls the shots because of Putin’s strategic idiocy. Having the PRC’s northern and western flanks secured is a key step toward Xi’s greater belligerence. The CCP is employing many tools in this war, and the American people need to recognize the avenues of attack.
The U.S., its allies, and its partners must move beyond anticipating aggression to recognizing its certainty and the reality of World War Xi.
We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.
END
NIGHTMARE SCENARIO:
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE:
5% Yields, $120 Oil, VIX 25? The Market’s Nightmare Scenario Is Coming Into View
The headline from a ZeroHedge piece (published September 10, 2026, via The Market Ear) flags a potential “nightmare” mix for risk assets: 10-year Treasury yields near or above 5%, oil around $120, and the VIX at ~25.
zerohedge.com
It highlights rising bond yields (the 10-year approaching 5%), higher oil and agricultural prices adding inflation pressure, and volatility beginning to respond as the downside tail gets repriced. It notes the picture is not purely bearish—tech strength (or “bubbles”) can still override higher yields, shorts are building, and institutions remain cautious. Full details appear limited behind a premium wall; only the lead section is widely visible.Current levels (as of ~September 10, 2026)These show the scenario is approaching in places but not fully realized:
- 10-year Treasury yield: ~4.93–4.97% (recently pushed toward the mid-to-high 4.9s, with intraday highs near 4.975%). It is on the cusp of 5% amid oil-driven inflation concerns and bond selling. en.macromicro.me
- Oil: Brent roughly $108–109 (up sharply on the day/week from geopolitical/Middle East supply risks, including Hormuz-related tensions); WTI around $103–104. This is elevated vs. earlier 2026 baselines but still short of $120. straitofhormuz.report
- VIX: Closed around 17.8–18 (up notably on the session from the mid-16s), reflecting rising hedging demand but far from 25. gurufocus.com
Why this combination is viewed as problematicHigher long-term yields raise discount rates (pressure on equity valuations, especially growth/tech), increase borrowing costs, and compete with stocks for capital. Sustained high oil feeds inflation expectations, complicates Fed policy (reducing room for cuts or raising hike odds), and can squeeze margins/consumers. An elevated VIX signals demand for protection and often accompanies broader risk-off moves. Historically, clusters of rising yields + energy shocks + volatility spikes have coincided with equity drawdowns or regime shifts, though outcomes depend on growth data, Fed response, and geopolitics.The setup is fluid: oil has been sensitive to Middle East developments (escalations have repeatedly pushed prices higher this year), yields track inflation and supply dynamics, and the VIX can gap higher quickly if realized volatility catches up or if data/Fed surprises hit. Counterforces include ongoing tech/AI resilience, positioning (shorts building), and any de-escalation that cools energy prices.In short, the article is spotlighting an emerging stress combination that markets are starting to price more seriously, even if the exact 5% / $120 / VIX 25 thresholds have not all been hit simultaneously. Markets remain sensitive to the next CPI, Fed signals, and energy headlines.
END
DIESEL: USA/CALIFORNIA
Dies-aster: California Diesel Nears $10 A Gallon As Global Fuel Crisis Deepens
Friday, Sep 11, 2026 – 11:00 AM
New AAA data show US diesel prices reached a record $6.05 a gallon, signaling severe tightening in global refined-fuel markets.
The squeeze reflects converging pressures: damage to Russian refinery capacity and diesel export halts linked to the Russia-Ukraine war, ongoing disruption at Hormuz, expanding threats to Red Sea shipping, and renewed Chinese buying. Together, these developments threaten both fuel availability and the shipping routes needed to deliver supplies, with conditions appearing to worsen ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, wrote on X that five gas stations in California have maxed out their diesel prices at $9.999 a gallon.
The inflation risk extends well beyond gas stations. Diesel powers the industrial economy, and soaring prices risk creating a stagflationary squeeze. Diesel powers trucking, freight rail, farm machinery and construction equipment, so its cost spreads across the economy in many forms, from higher grocery bills to squeezed business margins to even weaker consumer spending.
The latest retail diesel price spike follows a renewed surge in crude, with Brent reaching nearly $110 a barrel overnight before falling to $104 after an IEA report warned about potential demand destruction for industrial fuels.
S&P Global Energy warned Thursday that it does not forecast Middle East crude production to return to prewar levels by the end of 2027.
Citi analysts warned Friday that soaring commodity costs and diesel prices will weigh on many of the companies in their coverage universe through the first half of next year:
In 2025, commodity costs were mildly inflationary except for select inputs such as coffee, gas, and tallow which up meaningful +DD%. However, in 2026, commodity inflation has reaccelerated with acute pressure on direct and indirect energy-based products driven by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East including oil, resins, and diesel/freight costs. Additionally, prices for commodities impacted by tariffs and the global trade dynamics have also increased in 2026 including in aluminum and steel. Many of our companies have highlighted these input cost headwinds, which are pressuring margins this year and which we suspect will remain headwinds into at least 1H’27.
The question becomes whether the fuel price shock can push inflation higher while slowing economic growth, creating a stagflationary squeeze.
Why Family-Run Grocers Are Suing New York Over City-Run Stores
Thursday, Sep 10, 2026 – 08:05 PM
Authored by Russ Jones via The Epoch Times,
Josefina Aguirre grew up among the piñatas hanging from the ceiling of Little Mexico Meat Market, the store her parents opened in New York City’s El Barrio in 1997, three years after her father crossed the border from Mexico at 17.
She has a bachelor’s degree in business management, a qualification her parents, Oscar and Guadalupe Aguirre, insisted on. But she came back to work at the store anyway – to the same three coolers of fresh cheese and cilantro, the same shelves of jalapeños and tomatillos, and the same customers who still bring in their mail so she can read it to them in English.
The store has survived the opening of a Costco nearby. It survived COVID-19, barely. Her father caught the virus and died before he ever got to enjoy the retirement he had worked 28 years for.
Now, Aguirre and her sisters, who run the shop together, are bracing for what they see as the biggest threat yet: a city-subsidized grocery store that can sell a $10 steak for $7, because, unlike them, it doesn’t have to turn a profit.
“We’re not scared of competition,” Aguirre told The Epoch Times on Aug. 29 from behind the counter in Spanish Harlem. “We just want fair competition.”
A dozen blocks south, Yessica Lezama hears the same fear from her parents. Benito and Carmen emigrated from Mexico and became U.S. citizens before opening El Pueblo Mexicano Grocery on Third Avenue 25 years ago. They were drawn to the stretch of neighborhood known for its Mexican community.
Lezama, 38, has worked with her parents for three years, serving the same customers and stocking the same shelves of fruits, vegetables, and Mexican products that have kept the store going for a generation.
“I think it will have a bad impact on sales,” Lezama said of the mayor’s grocery store plan. “Since we’re a Mexican store, the city-run store won’t sell the same products, but it will still hurt us.”
Lezama said nearby business owners have formed an informal network to share information and support one another as the plan moves forward, meeting regularly to talk through their options.
“We help each other,” she said. “It is hard enough already. We don’t get a lot of help, and we’re worried about going out of business.”
Her parents are hoping to do more than just survive, Lezama said. They are working with a small-business association to modernize the store.
“My parents need help to make it more beautiful,” she said.
2 Lawsuits, 1 Target
Aguirre is one of hundreds of small-business owners now represented in two lawsuits filed against New York City by the Multicultural Business Coalition, a group representing roughly 1,000 minority-owned bodegas, delis, and supermarkets. The group argues that Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s plan to open city-run grocery stores will drive them out of business rather than help their neighborhoods.
The coalition filed a class-action complaint in the New York County Supreme Court on Aug. 24, alleging antitrust violations and predatory pricing, and a second suit the same day alleging that the city retaliated against members after they began organizing against the mayor’s plan.
Together, the suits mark one of the most direct legal challenges yet to a marquee policy of Mamdani’s first year in office.
The first complaint states, “The Defendants’ municipal grocery stores deny the Class Members, hundreds of grocers, many small grocers equal protection, as they are not able to offer discounts that markedly depart from globalized commerce, thereby violating New York’s Civil Rights Law.”
The second suit states that the “opening of the underlying municipal grocery stores … is diametrically opposed to the City’s longstanding reasons for refusing to allow Walmart to operate grocery stores in the City: that the fallout from allowing Walmart to operate deep discount business, while bringing ‘affordability,’ further enriching a multibillion-dollar business, would eliminate an untold amount of opportunity for minority businesses, and small business at large.”
Mamdani responded to the suits the same day they were filed.
“I’m confident in both the legality of this – that it will stand up in court – and the importance of delivering it,” he said at an Aug. 24 news conference.
Frank Garcia, the coalition’s chairman and head of the New York State Coalition of Hispanic Chambers of Commerce, said the mayor’s confidence misses what’s actually at stake for the coalition’s members.
“My grandfather opened up one of the first bodegas in the late 1960s, when East Harlem was burning,” he told The Epoch Times.
“I am proud to be following in his tradition, because what Mayor Mamdani is doing is disgracing his memory.”
Inside the $70 Million Plan
Under the plan, first unveiled last year, the city will spend $70 million to open five publicly owned grocery stores, one in each borough, offering staples at prices roughly 30 percent below market rate.
The stores won’t sell beer, cigarettes, or lottery tickets and will be designed to keep prices low rather than turn a profit. The goal, Mamdani has said, is to make food more affordable in neighborhoods with high poverty rates and limited access to full-service supermarkets.
The Bronx location, in an affordable housing complex in Hunts Point, is expected to open in 2027. The East Harlem store will be located at the 9,000-square-foot marketplace La Marqueta and is projected to open in 2029, according to city officials.
Mamdani has repeatedly defended the initiative.
“I continue to be fully confident in both the legality and the importance of our initiative to deliver five city-run grocery stores, one in each borough, to the people of our city,” he said in a statement in July, noting that grocery prices in the city have climbed by roughly 30 percent in recent years and that City Hall could also ease regulations to help existing store owners in the meantime.
Garcia said the coalition tried repeatedly to meet with Mamdani before filing suit, without success, and that the city moved ahead without ever conducting an economic impact study.
“Why are they going against immigrant business owners who can’t speak English and defend themselves?” Garcia said. “I don’t see that the mayor is being fair.”
Mark Jaffe, general counsel for the Multicultural Business Coalition and president of the Greater New York Chamber of Commerce, told The Epoch Times that the city’s plan goes further than officials have admitted.
“Their plan is to eventually put every independent store owner out of business,” Jaffe said. “And if you’re lucky, maybe they’ll give you a job.”
When he pressed city officials for details on how the stores would actually be run, he said, he got no real answer.
“We asked what the business plan was,” Jaffe said. “They told us, ‘We don’t need a plan, because the people we select will be responsible for coming up with the plan.'”
Jaffe also questioned whether a single store per borough would even reach the people Mamdani says he wants to help.
“Who is this really going to serve?” he said. “By the time you get on the train and spend two hours traveling, you’re paying more” than you would have shopping at a neighborhood store.
An Economist’s Warning
Economists are divided on what the lawsuits and the underlying policy mean for the city’s food supply chain.
Christian Briggs, a political and economic analyst who has advised members of Congress, argued that the plan fits a broader pattern of government expansion into private markets.
“This is a manmade takeover of the food supply system,” Briggs told The Epoch Times, comparing the initiative to nationalization efforts he attributed to past presidential administrations.
He noted that grocery stores typically run on net margins of just 4 percent to 5 percent, making a government-subsidized competitor selling goods 30 percent below market what he called “the beginning of the nationalization of our food chain supply system.”
Briggs also predicted that despite the coalition’s legal argument, consumer behavior would ultimately favor the city-run stores.
“‘Free’ is the most powerful word in the English language,” he said, likening the grocery plan to the long-term trajectory of entitlement programs.
“The lawsuits are valid. They’re justified. But in the end, you will not win over the word ‘free,’ because voters love free.”
‘Using Taxpayer Money’
Back at Little Mexico Meat Market, Aguirre said the math is simple and unforgiving. Her margin on a $10 steak helps cover her mortgage, her children’s tuition, her rent, and utilities.
A city-run competitor selling the same steak for $7, funded by taxpayers rather than sales, doesn’t have to make that math work.
“He can afford it because he’s using taxpayer money,” Aguirre said. “We don’t have any help. Loans have been made difficult to get.”
She and her sisters have quietly begun discussing plan B, such as teaching or other careers, or anything that doesn’t mean losing more of what their father built before he died. That loss follows her behind the register every day – behind the same counter where her father used to stand.
“Is it fair for me to leave and start a new career?” Aguirre asked.
It’s not a question she wants to answer. Not yet, anyway.
KING NEWS
| The King Report September 11, 2026 Issue 7824 | Independent View of the News |
| August PPI 0.4% m/m, but July revised to +0.1%. This lifted PPI to +5.4% y/y, 5.3% y/y expected. Core PPI 0.2% m/m & 4/6% y/y; 0.2% m/m & 4.6% y/y consensus. PPI Final Demand for goods jumped 1.1% m/m, the most since May, on Final Demand for energy +4.2% with Diesel +24.1%. Unfathomably PPI Final Demand for Services increased only 0.1%, the lowest since May even with prices for truck transportation of freight +2.0%. Full August PPI Report at link. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf Trump makes stunning first-of-its-kind cash promise in bid to rally GOP voters at Dallas midterm convention – “I can make this promise to you, and here is my promise,” he said. “If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them, because of our economic — tremendous economic success like in history, we’ve never had anything like what’s happening. But because of our tremendous strength and success economically — I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000. Very much like a successful company will do a cash distribution to its shareholders.”… “It will be called the ‘Trump dividend,'” he added… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-makes-stunning-first-of-its-kind-cash-promise-bid-rally-gop-voters-dallas-midterm-convention @charliebilello: President Trump yesterday: “If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate … I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen … for $5,000.” Number of adult US citizens: 245 million. Cost: $1.2 trillion… https://x.com/charliebilello/status/2098071187888701824 Republicans turn on Trump’s $5,000 voter ‘bribe’ desperately trying to avoid election ‘circus act’ https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16120905/Republicans-turn-Trump-voter-bribe-midterms.html Fiscal hawks cry foul over Trump’s proposed $5,000 dividend: ‘A dangerous arms race’ https://trib.al/pr3lvaK @FoxNews: President Trump announces $500 rebate checks to nearly 1 million Americans in 30 states who he says were wrongly overcharged through Obamacare. “In many cases, these refunds will cover the entire spike in your insurance caused by Democrats who solely work to protect big insurance companies.” https://x.com/FoxNews/status/2098064045446156434 Buying votes in America! “A tradition unlike any other!” Keeping buying bonds, Mr. House Bessent! The US is at ‘the looting of the treasury’ stage of decline. ECB hikes interest rates to 2.5% amid inflation spike Rate increase comes after inflation in the 21-country euro area jumped to 3.3% in August Speaking to reporters later on Thursday, Christine Lagarde, ECB president, described the decision to hike rates as a “no-brainer”, and that it was unanimously endorsed by the Governing Council. She also refused to provide forward guidance on the ECB’s rate path. https://www.euractiv.com/news/ecb-hikes-interest-rates-to-2-5-amid-inflation-spike/ “The Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. The conflict in the Middle East continues to generate inflation pressures, and inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period… The outlook remains highly uncertain, with risks to the upside for inflation and to the downside for economic growth…” – ECB in its Policy Statement https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html The likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike next week just got a lot higher – CNBC The odds of a Fed rate hike next week rose to 70% after a report showing increasing wholesale prices, and after oil jumped past $100 a barrel… https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/the-likelihood-of-a-fed-interest-rate-hike-next-week-just-got-a-lot-higher.html @financialjuice US Treasury Announces Bill and Bond Auction Sizes US Treasury to sell $92 billion of 3-month bills on September 14, settling September 17 US Treasury to sell $79 billion of 6-month bills on September 14, settling September 17 US Treasury to sell $13 billion of reopened 20-year bonds on September 15, settling September 18 US Treasury to sell $19 billion of reopened 10-year TIPS on September 17, settling September 30 CNN: Oil prices rose Thursday, with Brent crude hitting $105 per barrel for the first time since May, as conflict in the Middle East continued to roil global markets. https://cnn.it/3Ts56K9 Oct Brent hit $108.40; US diesel futures jumped above $5/gal for the first time since 2022; Oct Diesel 5.1265 high; Oct WTI Oil 103.12 high; Oct Gasoline 3.4194 high Saudi Arabia’s crude output falls (in August) to lowest level since 1990 Riyadh informed OPEC’s secretariat that its output fell by 1.9 million barrels per day to 6.238 million barrels per day. The figure marks an even sharper decline than the previous low reached in April, which was the lowest production level reported by Saudi Arabia since the start of the Gulf War… https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/saudi-arabia-crude-output-falls-125456513.html Yemen’s Houthis seize strategic Red Sea city of Mocha – It also enables them to “control pretty much all of Yemen’s coast on the Red Sea” and Bab al-Mandeb, Pusztai told Al Jazeera… https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/10/yemens-houthis-seize-strategic-red-sea-city-of-mocha Iran has resumed its production of ballistic missiles using stockpiled components and working in underground facilities, eroding what the US/ Israel… touted as a major achievement of the war: WSJ The US Treasury confirmed that it purchases $5.187B of US debt (2037-2046 maturities) on Thursday. This is a symbolic and futile gesture meant to induce weak shorts and algos to buy US debt. https://x.com/Barchart/status/2098179119850697205/photo/1 US 2Y: 4.59%; 10Y: 4.965%, 3-yr high; 30Y: 5.372%, 19-yr high; USZ 106 19/32 low, -1 18/32, at 16:41 ET. The 30-year fixed mortgage hit 7.07%. US 30-year Treasury auction ($22B) yield (5.308%) hit its highest level since August 2001. Primary dealers took 2.21%, the lowest on record! Indirect bids (foreigners & central banks) took 79.5%, the 2nd highest on record for 30s. @DeItaone: MUNI YIELDS SURGE TO HIGHEST SINCE APRIL 2025 – U.S. 10-year municipal bond yields jumped to 3.62%, the highest since April 2025, tracking the Treasury selloff. JPMorgan says rising Treasury yields, heavy muni issuance and weak reinvestment demand are pressuring the market. Investors pulled roughly $460 million from muni funds Wednesday, the largest outflow since April 2025. @Barchart: TLT (US 20+yr Debt ETF) has now collapsed to its lowest price since May 13, 2004. https://x.com/Barchart/status/2098133757861466470 @TruthGundlach Bessent: “I am the house now. Bet against the house if you want.” They’re betting against the house. @m3_melody: August Existing Home Sales – Non-seasonally adjusted down 3.46% YoY and -9.48% MoM; #2 for the worst August since 1999 behind August 2010; Median sales price up 1.59% YoY and down 1.61% MoM; Supply at 4.9 months – the highest level in the past 12 months (vs 4.6 in Aug 25) https://x.com/m3_melody/status/2098076073997009004 @NoLimitGains: The Consumer Discretionary sector is collapsing. We all know exactly why this is happening. Stock Table: https://x.com/NoLimitGains/status/2097981155454685680 @MauiBoyMacro: Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of our GDP. Discretionary categories like apparel, restaurants, travel, electronics, home furnishings, autos, and entertainment are the most cyclical slice of that spending. They’re the first things households cut when budgets get tight. In our current environment with elevated energy costs, high consumer debt and weak real wage growth, the cushion is thinner than normal. A sustained drop in discretionary spending raises the odds of a significant economic slowdown rather than just a mild pause. @philrosenn: Costco is flashing a recession signal, and its chart has started to roll over in recent months. It’s tracking Walmart, another retail bellwether down 6% over the last month. @Barchart: McDonald’s falls to lowest price in more than 2 years https://x.com/Barchart/status/2098121842334507177 NVDA CEO Jensen at the Goldman TMT Conference said shipments of Grace Blackwell are +27% m/m. He once again defended NVDA’s ‘circular financing.’ “We put a little bit of money in and a lot of money comes back. We put in 1 and 100 comes back in.” Huang claimed cybersecurity will be AI’s next major use, as AI-generated code accelerates both software development and vulnerabilities, which will provide AI growth and revenue. For the 4th time in the past 7 sessions, the S&P 500 Index gapped lower on the opening. The index hit a daily low of 75890.06 at 10:00 ET. It bounced to a double top of 7612.74 at 10:24 ET and 7612.86 at 11:37 ET. After retreating to 7586.72 at 12:35 ET, the S&P 500 bounced to 7610.21 at 13:03 ET and rolled over. The index fell to 7585.99 at 14:34 ET and bounced to 7596.49 on buying for the expected last-hour rally/manipulation. Alas, US debt yields kept rising; so, the S&P 500 Index vacillated in a range during the final hour and closed at 7591.70. Positive aspects of previous session SP Comm Services +0.25%, Consumer Discretionary +0.24%; Stocks did NOT get crushed. Negative aspects of previous session The US is at ‘the looting of the treasury’ stage of decline. S&P -0.58%, DJIA -0.6%, DJTA -0.05%, Nasdaq -0.65%. Nas 100 -1.08%; SOX Index -2.66% Materials -1.48%, Utilities -1.00%, Information Tech -0.94%, Real Estate -0.87%, Industrials -0.7%, Health Care -0.53%, Consumer Discretionary -0.45%, Energy -0.42%, Financials -0.3% Energy commodities surged. Bond & note yields soared, hit highs near cash mkt close (17:00 ET) Equity types are reluctant to sell stocks despite the ugliness in bonds, energy, and geopolitics. History tells us the equity adjustment will be severe when it comes. DJ Commodity Index +1.11% Ambiguous aspects of previous session When will equity types ‘get it’ and unleash fear and loathing of stocks? Precious metals declined smartly on higher interest rates. First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7594.87 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7612.86 (11:37 ET); 7580.06 (10:00 ET) Lefty Michigan congressional hopeful called for redistributing ‘all the land and all the money’ https://trib.al/Yy0oYe3 Multiple U.S. military aircraft damaged in Iranian strikes on military base in Jordan, sources say https://www.cbsnews.com/news/multiple-us-military-aircraft-damaged-iran-strikes-military-base-jordan/ Trump denied that US aircraft were damaged in Jordan. “None whatsoever. No damage. No nothing.” UN nuclear watchdog chief says construction observed at Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain Underground site in Natanz likely used to store nuclear material, according to Western intel… “There are some indications that there is movement around this construction site,” International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi told Bloomberg. “We don’t have any concrete information as to activities that may be taking place there.”… “We notice there’s a little activity at Pickaxe. I would advise Iran not to get cute because we will have to hit them very hard,” Trump said in a speech at the midterm Republican convention… https://www.timesofisrael.com/un-nuclear-watchdog-chief-says-construction-observed-at-irans-pickaxe-mountain/ @JewishWarrior13: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: President Trump announced tonight that Iran is attempting to rearm with nuclear weapons, and this is correct. After we destroyed its immediate capability to produce nuclear bombs, both in Operation Iron Swords and in Operation Rising Lion, they are trying again. I commit to you here, at the Western Wall, ahead of Rosh Hashanah: As long as I am Prime Minister, Iran will not have nuclear weapons. In parallel, we are striking the Iranian axis, not only very hard in the Gaza Strip, but also in Lebanon. We destroyed the Boufort Ridge and are now dealing with the Ali Taar Ridge… https://x.com/JewishWarrior13/status/2098105625859473567 Instead of subduing Iran in June 2025 when the US and Israel had it on the ropes, Trump inexplicably stood down. We opined at the time that DJT retreated to secure the Nobel Peace Prize that he craved. We stated then and subsequently that half measures in war do NOT work and lead to bigger problems. Trump employed the futile and failed Vietnam strategy utilized by LBJ and Nixon: bomb and threaten into submission. It did NOT work in Vietnam; and it is not productive now. Behind the Scenes, Vance Gathered Unvarnished Views of the Iran War – NYT Vice President JD Vance received sobering assessments about the war that did not line up with what he, President Trump and other top administration officials were saying publicly. Stocks of critical munitions such as these, they told the vice president, were the lowest they had ever seen…At the same time, the president was hearing more in his briefings from Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, about the strain on U.S. stockpiles and the resilience of Iranian forces, which Mr. Trump initially found difficult to believe… By April, Mr. Trump could see the war was not going the way he had hoped. He authorized his team — including Mr. Vance, the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and the special envoy Steve Witkoff — to begin seeking a framework and negotiating a deal with Iran to end the conflict, an agreement that would leave the country’s authoritarians in control… https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/10/us/politics/vance-iran-war-trump-munitions.html @nytimes: Anthropic said it halted potential plots by scientists who used its A.I. models to do research that could have helped develop biological weapons. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/10/us/politics/anthropic-ai-biological-weapons.html?smtyp=cur Fed Balance Sheet: +$3.415B; Reserves: +$ 96.779B (On TGA spree?) Today – The August CPI Report should be bad. And a bad or in-line report would ensure a Fed rate hike. But will Team Trump allow the BLS to tell the truth? Gasoline and diesel prices soared during August. Just like with the PPI report, bonds might rally initially, but Mr. Bond will eventually show his disgust with the real inflation in the economy. Traders will try to play for and affect the Friday Rally, especially after the S&P 500 Index dropping for four straight sessions. As noted above, equities always get it last but when they do, the adjustment is breathtaking. If the US 10-year ticks at 5%, some equity types will probably start getting it. We would bet that Team Trump crafts an unrealistic August CPI – and Mr. Bond will display his disgust, after the weak shorts and algos generate a rally, soon. Oil is higher on a report that the Houthis hit Saudi Arabia’s East-West Oil Pipeline for the 1st time. Expected Economic Data: August CPI 0.4% m/m & 3.4% y/y, Core CPI 0.2% n/n & 2.4% y/y; UM Sentiment 51m Current Conditions 51.3, Expectations 50.5, 1-year Inflation 3.9% ESUs +5.50, NQUs -25.75, USUs -3/32, Oct WTI +$0.98, Oct Gas +3.5¢, Yen/$ 154.38 at 20:12 ET. S&P 500 50-eay MA: 7604; 100-day MA: 7491; 200-day MA: 7157 (S&P 500 Close 7591.70) DJIA 50-day MA: 52,960; 100-day MA: 51,692; 200-day MA: 49,954 (DJIA Close 52,064.40) (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) Trump at GOP Midterm Convention on Wednesday night: “One thing in the world of politics, you can’t be sarcastic. You can’t have any fun. You can’t do anything that you think is cute because it- tonight, the story will be that Donald Trump wants a Congressional Medal of Honor for himself. I’m only kidding. Actually, I’m not kidding, I would like that…” https://x.com/FoxBusiness/status/2098123780954489081 Prosecutor who led ‘grand conspiracy’ probe of Trump targets resigns without charging anyone Joe diGenova, 81, was part of a group that tried to overturn the 2020 election… Justice Department leadership felt the investigation was not moving quickly enough… https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/prosecutor-led-grand-conspiracy-probe-trump-targets-resigns-charging-a-rcna597123 Suicide rate soars for girls as young as 10, as expert says one major trend is to blame (Social media) https://trib.al/XCt1BEu Massachusetts mom accused of murdering 2 kids then fleeing state makes shocking request to go free – Janette MacAusland’s lawyer, Joseph Krowski, argued to a judge that there wasn’t enough information to keep the 49-year-old Wellesley mom behind bars – despite her allegedly admitting to cops that she killed 7-year-old Kai and 6-year-old Ella and tried to take her own life back in April.. https://trib.al/nalEVgk @CollinRugg: Room full of women on the Oprah show starts cheering after a doctor says that black female child murderers need to be supported too, not just the white child murderers like Lindsay Clancy. “I want us to have the same passion for [female child murderers] who don’t look like Lindsay…” “There are women of color sitting around this country in prisons for [murdering their children]. I just wanna remind us to have the pink shirts and the energy for them as well.” Totally insane. https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/2098148605039395312 For centuries, people claimed women were too emotional due to biology to vote or hold responsible positions. Decades of crusading debunked that. Now, the wacky left is undermining that! The dehumanizing and vilification of blacks were reprehensible and evil rationalizations for slavery, and the same is true for Jews and the Holocaust. Dehumanization and indifference to life are increasing as tools of the death cult and the wacky left. It will have dire consequences for society. @OpenSourceZone: Democratic Party Approval Rating Among Men; Approve: 16% (-60), Disapprove: 76%; Generic Ballot: Democrats: 49%, Republicans: 38%; Approval Trump: 33%, Democrats: 21%, Republicans: 26% – Quinnipiac poll | September 3-6 Thune ready to have ‘conversation’ with Fetterman about joining GOP – as Dems rage against RNC ‘stunt’ https://trib.al/CrR6iRF @MySportsUpdate Aaron Rodgers, holding nothing back, explains why he doesn’t trust anyone in government — right or left — and believes it’s all a sham. “There is no MAGA movement. The guy you elected hasn’t done any of his campaign promises. … When Obama was president, it was, ‘There will be hope and change for a better world.’ Has anything in the Black community gotten significantly better?” https://x.com/MySportsUpdate/status/2098066203939893368 Happy Rosh Hashana! | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
GREG HUNTER….
TO ALL OUR JEWISH FRIENDS OUT THERE A HAPPY HEALTHY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR
HARVEY
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