1 AM IN NEW ORLEANS AT THE GOLD CONFERENCE SO FOR THESE WEEK THE COMMENTARIES WILL BE SHORT. I WILL DO MY UTMOST THE RETRIEVE ALL DATA FOR YOU
SILVER: 53.991 3;30 PM)
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 3,991.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/23/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 10/27/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
072 H GOLDMAN 4
152 C DORMAN TRADING, LLC 1
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 13
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 6
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 3
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 14
991 H CME 7
TOTAL: 24 24
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT./2026: 24 CONTRACTs NOTICES FOR 2400 OZ or 0.0715 TONNES
total notices so far: 13,479 contracts FOR 1,347,900 OZ OR 41.924 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 15 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 75,000 OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 3581 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 17.905 million oz
GLD
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.06PTS OR 0.10%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 116.64 PTS OR 0.51%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 563.31 PTS OR 0.60%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.71%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 6.6662
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.6643Oil UP TO 101.70dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 115.72Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING 6.6662OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.6643 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 3 ENTRIES i) Out of Brinks 607.250oz ii) out of HSBC 160.75 oz (5 kilobars) iii) Out of Manfra 68,803.14 oz (2140 kilobars total withdrawal: 76,571.440oz ( 2.38 tonnes |
| Deposit to theDealerInventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold 0 ENTRIES xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 24 CONTRACTS 2400 OZ 0.0715 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 16 Contracts 1600 OZ 0.0497 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 13,479 notices 1,347,900 OZ 41.924 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS:CUSTOMER ACCT
ENTRIES: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawals
3ENTRIES
ii) Out of Brinks 607.250oz
ii) out of HSBC 160.75 oz (5 kilobars)
iii) Out of Manfra 68,803.14 oz (2140 kilobars
total withdrawal: 76,571.440oz (
2.38 tonnes
adjustments: 3
a) Brinks 385.812oz dealer to customer
b) Asahi 192.905 dealer ti customer
c) HSBC 388.743 oz dealer to customer
d0 500,.020 oz customer to dealer
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF OCT OI STANDS AT 40 CONTRACTS HAVING A GAIN OF 11 CONTRACTS.
FRIDAY WE HAD A NORMAL DELIVERY OF 1,347,600 OZ ( 41.9160 TONNES) OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY: TODAY: 1,349,500 OZ OR 41.9751 TONNES FOR A GAIN OF 1900 OZ (0.0590TONNES) OR 19 CONTRACTS UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TRY AND TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
.
NOVEMBER LOST 58 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 3278
DECEMBER, THE LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR, ITS OI FALLS BY 12,787CONTRACTS DOWN TO 294,823
.
We had 24 contracts filed for today representing 2400 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 24 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 6 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (13,479) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (40 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 24 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,349,500 OZ OR(41.9751 Tonnes of gold) to which we add our two exchange for risk in Oct totalling 837 contracts for 83,700 oz or 2.60346 tonnes. Thus Oct standing for gold reduces to 44.5786 tonnes
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT. /2026. contract month,we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (13,479) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT(40) contracts minus the number of notices served upon today 24 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,349,500 OZ OR(41.9751 Tonnes of gold) plus our first exchange for risk totalling 837 contracts//83700 oz//2.60346 tonnes//standing ADVANCES to 44.5786 tonnes
new total of gold standing in OCT becomes 44.5786 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.: 44.5786 TONNES WHICH IS NOW VERY STRONG FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT./
FRIDAY VOLUME: 228,373 fair
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,746,271.131 oz 54.31 tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,746,271.131 tonnes oz 54.31 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 23,212,402.037oz//
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 14,813,817 tonnes (460.77 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 9,498,584.90 oz.
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,068,013 oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
40.470 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
OCT DELIVERY MONTH
OCT 26
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries i) Delaware 2,850.800 ozi ii) HSBC 600,401.045 oz total withdrawal 603,250.945oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | ENTRIES: 0 |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 15 CONTRACT(S) ( 75,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 14 Contracts (0.070 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 3581 contracts 17.905 MILLIONoz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
ENTRY:0
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
0 ENTRIES:
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals:
i) Delaware 2,850.800 ozi
ii) HSBC 600,401.045 oz
total withdrawal 603,250.945oz
adjustments : 2
a) Brinks dealer to customer; 376,040,281 oz
b) Manfra dealer to customer: 345,853.462oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 99.793 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 337.498 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT
FRONT MONTH: SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS: 29 FOR A LOSS OF 36 CONTRACTS . FRIDAY WE HAD 17.900 MILLION OZ STAND: TODAY: 17.975 MILLION OZ FOR A GAIN OF 75,000 OZ (15 CONTRACTS). THUS A 15 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP//WHERE THEY WILL TRY AND TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
.
NOVEMBER LOST 8 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 1683
DECEMBER LOST 67 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 86,014
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 15 or 75,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume FRIDAY; 66,696// strong/raid/
AND NOW OCT. DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3581 X5,000 oz = 17.905 MILLION oz.
Then we take the difference between the front month of OCT. and the number of notices filed for today x 5000 to give us our standing
Thus the standings for silver for the OCT 2026 contract month: (3581 )Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT (29) minus number of notices served upon today ( 15 x 5000 oz) equals silver standing for the OCT .contract month equating to 17.975 MILLION OZ to which we add silver’s TWO exchange for risk for 450 contracts (2.25 million oz).. total standing REMAINS AT 20.225 million oz//. ( a very strong delivery month)
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 99.793 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 125.510/337.498 million: 37.27%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
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OCT 26//2026/WITH GOLD UP $28.40/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 16.17TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.45TONNES
OCT 23//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1057.62 TONNES
OCT 22//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $87.75 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.18 TONNES
OCT 21//2026/WITH GOLD UP $8.55 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD.// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 20//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.05 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 19//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 5.13 TONNES OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 16//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.91 TONNES
OCT 15//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.21 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.20 TONNES
OCT 14//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $66.25 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.41 TONNES
OCT 13//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF OF 2.281TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.411 TONNES
OCT 12//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.13 TONNES
OCT 9//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.562 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.411 TONNES
OCT 8//2026/WITH GOLD UP $16.85 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.703 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.873 TONNES
OCT 7//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.27 TONNES
OCT 6//2026/WITH GOLD UP $30.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A DEPOSIT OF 0.754 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.27 TONNES
OCT 5//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.854 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.696 TONNES
OCT 2//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $43.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A DEPOSIT OF 0.854 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.55 TONNES
OCT 1//2026/WITH GOLD UP $19.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.711 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.696 TONNES
SEPT 30//2026/WITH GOLD UP $7.80 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A DEPOSIT OF 2.847 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1057.407 TONNES
SEPT 29//2026/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.56 TONNES
SEPT 28//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $150.20 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.56 TONNES
SEPT 25//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $150.20 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.56 TONNES
SEPT 24//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD://:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.84 TONNES
SEPT 23//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $58.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.41 TONNES
SEPT 22//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.41 TONNES
SEPT 21//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 2.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.10 TONNES
SEPT 18//2026/WITH GOLD UP $26.45 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 0.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.84 TONNES
SEPT 17//2026/WITH GOLD UP $14.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.99 TONNES
SEPT 16//2026/WITH GOLD UP $53.40 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.28 TONNES
SEPT 15//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.45 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.353 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.420 TONNES
SEPT 14//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $54.50 /SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.353 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.420 TONNES
SEPT 11//2026/WITH GOLD UP $1.05 /SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.353 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.277 TONNES
/
GLD INVENTORY: 1041.45TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
OCT 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.25: :SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV:// A DEPOSIT OF 451,000 OZ OF SILLVER INTO THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.327 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.94 : :NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.876 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.72 : : SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 632,000 OZ INTO SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.876 MILLION OZ
OCT 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28 : : STRONG CHANGES AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 858,000 OZ INTO SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.508 MILLION OZ
OCT 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 : :NO CHANGES A WITHDRAWAL OF 943,000 OZ INTO OUT OF SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.650 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP $1.19 : :MEGA HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 4.374 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.593 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER UP $1.19 : :SMALL CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 406,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.219 MILLION OZ
OCT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.25 : :SMALL CHANGES A WITHDRAWAL OF 135,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.948 MILLION OZ
OCT 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.97 : :HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 722,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.813 MILLION OZ
OCT 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51 : :HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 722,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.948 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.62 : :SMALL CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 948,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.226 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.74 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 532,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.278 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.36 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 451,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.910 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.31 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.361 MILLION OZ
OCT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.87 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.361 MILLION OZ
OCT 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.74 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.578 MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.57 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.400 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.578 MILLION OZ
SEPT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.55 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 994,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.978 MILLION OZ
SEPT 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 566,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.984 MILLION OZ
SEPT 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.91 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.542 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.436 MILLION OZ
SEPT 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.91 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.542 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.436 MILLION OZ
SEPT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.96 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.813 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.533 MILLION OZ
SEPT 23 WITH SILVER UP $1.58 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.716 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.346 MILLION OZ
SEPT 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.062 MILLION OZ
SEPT 21 WITH SILVER UP $1.04 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.558 MILLION OZ
SEPT 18 WITH SILVER UP $1.04 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.558 MILLION OZ
SEPT 17 WITH SILVER UP $1.10 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.265 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.558 MILLION OZ
SEPT 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.95 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 813,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.823 MILLION OZ
SEPT 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 813,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.636 MILLION OZ
SEPT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.91 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.449 MILLION OZ
SEPT 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.50 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.449 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 498.327MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF//JOHN RUBINO//RAVEN
JOHN RUBINO
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
Global inflation badly underestimated
Analysts and commentators severely underestimate the inflationary consequences of the Iran war. The current energy stoppage is far worse than the 1973 oil embargo.
| Alasdair MacleodOct 25∙Paid |  |
“The only surefire protection to one’s wealth is to get out of all forms of credit and into the safety of gold, which is real legal money. The Iran war and its consequences have made this decision increasingly urgent.”
General commentary plays down the consequences of today’s Hormuz crisis, which has entered a stalemate. The fact of the matter is that the US and its Israeli lobby will not accept Iran’s red lines, and the war, which is already lost, will continue. Not only that, but the Houthis are severely restricting Saudi pipeline oil flows Yanbu, emasculating the Saudi economy and destabilising the nation.
Admittedly, the 1973 crisis, which was similarly driven by a conflict between Arab petroleum exporters and Israel, led to a substantial increase of the oil price from $3 per barrel to $12. So far, the Iran war has only led to a mere doubling, but it’s 3-2-1 derivatives add a further $60 per barrel.
The 1973 crisis led to the combined economic slump and inflation shock, peaking at 11.1% in 1974 in the US, 24.2% in the UK in 1975, 13.7% in France in 1974, and 23.2% in Japan in 1974. Why should it be different this time?
In 1973 the oil embargo led to less than a 10% drop in global oil supply. This time, it’s probably about 15% and counting. Furthermore, 20% of global LNG supplies are cut off, supplies which didn’t exist in the early 1970s: gas was usually flared off. Downstream products such as fertilisers, urea, ammonia, and sulphur have become major Gulf exports in recent years, because of access to cheap natural gas.
Additionally, G7 nations face protectionism from other exporters of these commodities. China has announced a ban on fertiliser exports to protect her domestic market, withdrawing supplies available to importers. The chart below illustrates the relative importance of China’s move. Other exporting nations are likely to follow, leaving Russia as the sole significant global supplier, assuming that they are allowed to do so.
As the second largest fertiliser exporter, China’s ban combined with the Gulf’s supply restrictions is simply horrendous for agriculture, particularly coupled with restrictions of diesel supplies vital to farming.
G7 economic policy options
Broadly, there are two policy options. Governments intervene, or they don’t. If they don’t intervene, markets will restore the balance between supply and demand for all production and consumer prices affected, which is everything. The consequence would be an immediate slump as consumers cut out all unnecessary spending, businesses go bankrupt, unemployment soars, and stock markets crash. At least those with a roof over their heads should remain housed, because their mortgage lenders will go bust and liquidators will be unable to call in mortgages from non-payers.
The ensuing slump could be worse than the 1930s depression. Governments facing a collapse in tax revenue and escalating welfare costs which they would be unable to pay would find it impossible to finance their debt obligations, and their currencies being fiat would simply collapse to their true value, which will be nothing.
Therefore, G7 governments will intervene to prevent this outcome — not that they will succeed in doing so.
Political intervention will be aimed at expanding government credit without limit to subsidise prices where essential consumer products cannot be rationed, to provide emergency funding for failing businesses, and to suppress interest rates to support financial markets and protect government finances. Intervention will involve massive credit expansion, undermining the purchasing power of their fiat currencies. It will depend on very short-term finance through the issuance of T-bills because bond finance will be too expensive or unavailable.
The slump will still be worse than the thirties’ depression, only concealed slightly by currency devaluation.
Consequences for personal wealth
The depression caused the US stock market to collapse by 89% between September 1929 and mid-1932. The equity bubble today almost certainly dwarfs that which preceded the Wall Street Crash, going by the level of margin debt and the already high level of long bond yields which will rise considerably further as the inflationary impact hits government finances.
The 1929—1932 difference from today was that the dollar was firmly on its gold standard of $20.67 to the ounce. That meant that the 89% decline in the Dow was measured in a gold substitute and reflected the true position. Today’s US markets are measured in fiat dollars, which will lose significant value at the same time as equity values collapse.
The best illustration of the difference between the two comes from the reichsmark era in 1920—1923 Germany. This is illustrated in the next chart:
In the runup to hyperinflation, gold began to outperform the German equity index assembled by Collet & Fohlin, indicated by the gap between the two closing. The C&F Index rose from 375 in February 1921 to 1,250 in October, before declining to 750 in June 1922. That was measured in reichsmarks. In gold, it had peaked at 152 in February 1921 before declining to only 3 in November 1922. During the hyperinflation period which followed, considerable volatility ensued before the index became worthless valued in gold.
Given the similarity and inevitability of debasement conditions evolving in today’s financial markets, it would be a brave investor who hangs on to stocks for a hyperinflationary blowoff. The only surefire protection to one’s wealth is to get out of all forms of credit and into the safety of gold, which is real legal money. The Iran war and its consequences have made this decision increasingly urgent.
Do not be misled by negative sentiment over gold. The current decline presents a likely final opportunity to stack at depressed values.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
END
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE//KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT/295
5. COMMODITY REPORT //HELIUM
US Designates Helium A Critical Material In Reindustrialization Push To Avoid “Single Point Of Failure”
Friday, Oct 23, 2026 – 09:20 PM
America’s reindustrialization depends on securing reliable, conflict-free supplies of critical materials, including rare earths and other critical metals, most of which are produced and processed overseas.
The Trump administration has made rebuilding and strengthening domestic critical material supply chains a national security priority. Its designation of helium as a critical material on Friday morning extends that effort to now include the industrial gas used for semiconductor manufacturing and many other applications.
The Energy Department’s decision earlier today makes the 20th critical material designated by the agency and brings the industrial gas within the Energy Act of 2020’s critical materials framework, including closer government monitoring.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright wrote in a statement, “President Trump is bringing back America’s manufacturing industry, and that means making sure we have the materials needed to build things in America again.”
Wright continued, “Helium is essential to producing the semiconductors and advanced technologies that power our economy. By designating helium as a critical material, we are taking another step toward securing our supply chains, creating American jobs, and ensuring the United States leads the world in energy and technological innovation.”
Helium is recovered as a byproduct of natural gas processing and faces growing geopolitical risks in the Gulf area. Qatar’s exports have been severely curtailed by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Qatari infrastructure, while Russia imposed temporary export controls in April.
The good news is that the US remains one of the top helium producers in the world, supplying 81 million cubic meters in 2025, or about 43% of global output. It exported 38 million cubic meters that year.
Helium is critical to applications ranging from chipmaking to medical imaging to quantum computing to magnets to space rockets.
Assistant Energy Secretary Audrey Robertson warned that shortages could become a “single point of failure” for strategically important industries. The Canadian Press quoted her in an interview.
“We need to make sure that we can build those here. And helium is one of those components that could be a single point of failure, where we cannot let that happen. That’s why we’re designating it within our statutory authority, but I think why it’s important is not necessarily for our birthday parties,” Robertson said in an interview. “It’s really towards the future of American competitiveness and energy security, which we believe is national security.”
Designating helium as a critical material under the Energy Act of 2020 brings it within DOE’s framework for developing, demonstrating, and commercializing critical material technologies to support America’s reindustrialization efforts.
The new designation could help qualifying helium projects access government financing, technical assistance, and partnerships, similar to support provided to rare earth miners.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.06PTS OR 0.10%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 116.64 PTS OR 0.51%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 563.31 PTS OR 0.60%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.71%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 6.6662
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.6643Oil UP TO 101.70dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 115.72Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING 6.6662OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.6643 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGER/OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 6.6662
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.6643
1A.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 116.64 PTS OR 0.51%
1 B. SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.04 PTS OR 0.10%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 563.31 PTS OR 0.60%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 101.28
BRENT; 115.79
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP 6 BASIS PTS TO 101.70// EURO FALLS TO 1.1191 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +2.793 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 157.49… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.824 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN //CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP (6.6662) AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.6643
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA. CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. GOVERMENT ASKED JAPAN PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE FUNDS TO BUY MORE JAPANESE BONDS AND REPATRIATE ALL FOREIGN BONDS.
3g Oil DOWNfor WTI and DOWN for Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yieldsHIGHER on all fronts in the EU German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +3.3652/ Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN AT 4.540/ SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 4.026%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 4.3697%
3j Gold at $4017.00.00 /Silver at: 54.93 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 1 AND 8/ 100 roubles/80.81
3m oil (WTI) into the 101 dollar handle for WTI and 115 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 156.89 // 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.794% DOWN 1BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS TO BE REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.825 DOWN 0 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.8238 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9215
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.995 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…NOW BELOW 5.00%
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.330 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.671 UP 0 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 49.76 UP 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.34139 DOWN 1 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.7352 UP 2 BASIS PTS
10 YEAR FRENCH BOND YIELD; 4.967 % //DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.836 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.579 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Rise As Meta Jumps On $95BN Equity Raise, Oil Slides; Brazil Crashes After Lula Shock
Monday, Oct 26, 2026 – 08:29 AM
US futures are higher as oil slides on hopes that a regional delegation in Tehran can breathe some life into US-Iran peace talks, and as Meta jumps after finally unveiling how it plans to pay for its AI capex binge, offsetting a stunning comeback win by Lula in Brazil’s runoff which has sent Brazilian ADRs crashing as much as 30-50% premarket, while traders brace for a week packed with megacap earnings and central bank decisions; as a result 10Y yields are flat at 4.99% and the dollar is barely changed. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are 0.4% higher at 7,665.75 while Nasdaq futures are up 0.7% and Dow futures rise 0.4% (+186 points) to 52,580. On Friday the S&P slipped 0.5% to cap a second weekly drop and close below its 50DMA, as the AI funding angst which has hammered tech names spread to credit. Premarket, Mag 7 names are mostly higher led by Meta (+2.4%), which is seeking up to $95 billion in equity: a $35 billion offering ($22.5 billion of Class A common stock plus $12.5 billion of mandatory convertible preferred) launched this morning, followed by an at-the-market program to sell up to $60 billion of new non-voting Class C shares starting in 2027, with Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom indicating interest in buying up to $5 billion of the offering (some circular AI financing never hurts). That the stock is rising on a potential $95 billion equity raise tells you how much the market feared the alternative was even more debt. The day’s driver is Brazil: Lula’s 51.8%-48.2% victory over market favorite Flávio Bolsonaro, who is now calling for the vote to be annulled, has sent the Brazil ETF (EWZ) down 27% premarket, with names like XP (-48%), StoneCo (-35%), PicPay (-34%) and Nubank (-23%) all crashing. In rates, Treasuries are narrowly mixed with the long end outperforming and the curve flattening by about 2bp, while French bonds rally after Moody’s unexpectedly kept France at Aa3, narrowing the OAT-bund spread to around 158bps. The Bloomberg dollar index is up 0.1% with the yen the weakest G-10 currency, while the Brazilian real is expected to gap 5-7% lower at the open. In commodities, WTI is down about 2.1% near $101 and Brent drops toward $114 as Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials travel to Iran; European natgas is up 3% near a post-2022 high, while gold rises 0.5% back above $4,000 and Bitcoin hovers around $80,400. US economic data slate includes September Chicago Fed national activity index (8:30am) and October Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (10:30am); the Fed is in its blackout period ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC, and the Treasury sells $69 billion in 2-year notes at 1pm.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher: Meta Platforms (META) up +2.4% after announcing sale of up to $95 billion in common and preferred stock; Tesla (TSLA) gains 1.8% as Barclays upgrades to overweight from equal-weight, citing M&A opportunity with SpaceX; Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.5%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.2%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.4%, Nvidia (NVDA) +0.4%, Apple (AAPL) -1.7%. Here are some of the other notable premarket movers:
- US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, and those exposed to the country, slump after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva surprised the markets to come from behind to win a runoff election. Among movers: PagSeguro (PAGS) -32%, NU Holdings (NU) -25%, MercadoLibre (MELI) -14%
- ArriVent Biopharma (AVBP) is trading higher by 4.5% after early-stage data for the company’s ARR-217 product candidate was presented at ESMO, a key cancer conference.
- Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp. (BAH) rises 0.9% as it is being upgraded to buy from hold at TD Cowen, which writes that shares of the IT services company look attractively valued in the wake of long-term share-price weakness.
- Borr Drilling shares (BORR) drop 8.2% after the company said search and rescue operations are ongoing for five individuals who remain unaccounted for after its Prospector 5 drilling rig sank during jacking operations offshore Gabon on Oct. 24.
- Coinbase Global Inc. shares (COIN) are down 1.7% as Bernstein cut its price target on the exchange to $250 from $330 on lower expected crypto volumes.
- Equifax Inc. (EFX) falls 3.5% after it was cut to sector perform from outperform with RBC saying the the recent stock rally “off the lows has left risk/reward more balanced” given concerns on higher rates, regulatory overhand and consumer lending pressure.
- Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO) falls 9.2% after it was cut to equal-weight from overweight at Wells Fargo, citing its lower-than-expected 2027 pricing announcement.
- FirstEnergy Corp. shares (FE) rise 0.5% after BMO Capital Markets initiated coverage of the utilities company with a recommendation of outperform as it sees an attractive valuation.
- Lockheed Martin Corp. shares (LMT) are up 1.4% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the defense company to overweight from equal-weight, writing that a recent deal for F-35 fighter jets “takes significant risk out of the stock.”
- Moderna (MRNA) slumps 8.2%, set to extend their decline for a third session, after the drugmaker gave results from a trial of its experimental vaccine used in the treatment of pancreatic cancer.
- Nutanix Inc. shares (NTNX) are up 5.3% after Guggenheim Securities started coverage on the infrastructure software company with a buy rating and $100 price target, seeing an ability for it to take market share.
- Range Resources (RRC) rises 8.9% after EQT (EQT -8.1%) agreed to buy the energy firm in an all-stock transaction to create a combined natural gas company with a pro forma enterprise value over $50 billion.
- Spotify Technology SA shares (SPOT) are down 1.4% after Phillip Securities downgraded the audio-streaming company to accumulate from buy, a move that comes in the wake of its recent results.
- Xencor (XNCR) climbs 31% after the drug developer gave updated results from an early-stage trial of its experimental drug for kidney cancer that impressed Wall Street.
In other corporate news, Meta, whose 5-year CDS has roughly doubled since August to about 120bps as its capex is now seen exceeding operating cash flow, decided that if the bond market is getting nervous, shareholders can foot the bill: the company launched a roughly $35 billion offering of $22.5 billion in Class A common stock (sold via forward sale agreements) and $12.5 billion in three-year mandatory convertible preferred stock, and plans an at-the-market program of up to $60 billion of new non-voting Class C shares once they start trading, expected in Q1 2027, for a total of up to $95 billion; Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom indicated nonbinding interest in buying up to $5 billion of the shares, which are being sold to fund AI infrastructure and compute capacity. EQT agreed to buy Range Resources in an all-stock transaction, with each Range share exchanged for 0.987 EQT shares, creating a gas giant with a combined enterprise value of more than $50 billion; RRC is up 14% premarket while EQT drops 4.2%. Verizon raised its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $5.04 to $5.06 from $4.99 to $5.04 after posting its biggest third-quarter wireless-customer additions in five years. Instacart is in talks to sell itself, the Information reported. Amex plans to cut 5% of its headcount as transaction volumes fall short. Ovintiv agreed to buy Canada’s Logan Energy in a Montney expansion. Elon Musk said SpaceX closed a $40 billion debt deal to fund chips for its AI ambitions, although people familiar said pricing talks were still underway. Challenger’s board rejected a $4.4 billion offer from Daiichi Life.
Global markets are trying to start the week on a positive note as crude retreats from a six-month high, but it’s a deceptively calm surface: a shock win for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s election will dominate today’s narrative, while the AI trade will be tested this week when tech firms worth more than $10 trillion combined, including Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet, report earnings. As Bloomberg’s Before the Bell notes, the Nasdaq is at a key technical level after a second week in the red, hovering around 29,000 after a failed breakout sent it back toward the lower end of its six-month range; a loss of recent lows would expose the 200-DMA near 27,800, about 3.5% below current levels.
The bigger issue is how all this AI capex gets paid for. Meta’s raised capex guidance alarmed some, as consensus is now modeling about $140 billion in spending, pushing that metric above operating cash flow, and the concerns are spilling into credit, with Meta’s five-year CDS spread roughly doubling since August to around 120 basis points, confirming what we warned last week when Goldman admitted its credit bear case isn’t bearish enough as AI stress hits bonds. Today we got the answer to the funding question: Meta is seeking up to $95 billion in equity to fund its AI spending, after last week’s results showed it raised the low end of its 2026 capex guidance, turned free-cash-flow negative and flagged multi-year equity funding needs through new Class C shares (per Goldman’s TMT desk). The stock fell 7% on Thursday when the issuance plans overshadowed a revenue beat, but is up 2.4% premarket now that the size of the overhang is known and the chipmakers it pays for GPUs have offered to buy some of the paper back. Meanwhile, the stress at the bottom of the credit stack is getting worse: average yields on triple-C rated junk bonds topped 16% for the first time since 2020 on Friday, and last week’s 1.6% loss was the biggest in 18 months.
Elon Musk’s weekend comments didn’t help: he said debt markets have “almost entirely shut off access to money” for companies without substantial revenue outside AI data centers, adding that “200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation,” which is why CoreWeave (-5.5%) and Nebius (-4%) are sliding premarket even as the broader market rises. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, meanwhile, sees AI-related concerns as one of three clearing events that could help end the market correction over the next few weeks, and reckons quality can hold up even if the S&P trades toward his tactical downside zone of 7,100-7,200.
On Brazil, the street was caught leaning the wrong way.
“For today, however, expect Brazilian markets to be hit hard. USD/BRL gapping 5-7% higher at the open to the 5.20/25 area should be no surprise, while the local Bovespa equity index looks set for double-digit losses,” said Chris Turner, ING’s head of FX strategy. “Important for local financial markets will be how quickly Bolsonaro accepts the result – or at least allows the constitution to run its course.”
“As such, BRL is poised to unwind its rally following Bolsonaro’s strong first-round showing earlier this month,” said Elias Haddad, global head for markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. “Lula’s greater tolerance for rising debt adds to BRL headwinds.”
Elsewhere, HSBC’s long-standing equity bull Max Kettner is dialing back risk, moving to neutral on equities from maximum overweight and to overweight developed-market government bonds from maximum underweight, saying bond underperformance “has become stretched” and that “constant narrative bingo” means the team no longer has the same level of conviction; HSBC also cut its gold overweight and raised oil to outright overweight.
JPMorgan’s Market Intel desk (Andrew Tyler) remains “Tactically Bullish”, noting the SPX has lost 2.4% over the last two weeks with a shift toward defensives, and that “we have yet to have a complete positioning washout despite sentiment being firmly in the Fear region.” On Iran, “If Trump moves back to negotiations rather than kinetics, then we expect a broad-based rally led by Tech / Cyclicals ex-Energy.” As for Brazil, JPM’s prior Monetization Menu noted that “internationally, we continue to favor Brazil and Japan” (it was a good run while it lasted). JPM’s Mike Feroli expects a hold on Wednesday with two hawkish dissents (Hammack and Logan), and says Chair Warsh will have to explain why the committee hiked after a two-tenths core PCE print in September but is now holding after an expected three-tenths outturn.
Over at Goldman, Rich Privorotsky summed up the mood: “Positioning, sentiment and performance all severely constrained…. shorts squeezing, nothing working. Usually darkest before the dawn.” According to the bank’s Giulio Esposito, Global Tech is “registering its largest 2-week net selling on record”, fundamental L/S net leverage has dropped to a one-year low of 47%, while Mag 7 net exposure is at a record high, which echoes what we noted over the weekend in “The AI Hangover: Goldman Says Buy The Dip As Hedge Fund Stop-Outs Push Nets To A One-Year Low”. Goldman’s Brian Garrett frames the dilemma: “we’re either in the 2nd inning of a repricing of the entire AI ecosystem … or we’re in the 8th inning of a significant de-gross episode (leaning in this camp right now)”. Also of note, GS calculates that CTAs are long $38.5 billion of S&P futures (91st percentile) and could sell $11.6 billion over the next week even in a flat tape. Goldman economists expect the FOMC to skip on Wednesday but deliver a second and final hike in December.
Positioning may yet provide a cushion: Deutsche Bank strategists note tech exposure has slid to the lowest level in six months and is now close to Iran war lows, even as investors poured about $30 billion into tech funds over the past two weeks, including $12 billion into leveraged ETFs; that dip-buying showed signs of cracking last Thursday, when the selloff triggered about $1.5 billion of outflows.
In geopolitics, Trump said it’s “getting to be decision time” on whether he will make a deal with Tehran or resume attacks, as Iranian and Houthi threats against Americans in the Middle East continue to grow; meanwhile, Kevin Hassett said US-Canada trade negotiations are “gathering steam.” In France, the government avoided a repeat of the looting of the prior weekend, and Moody’s surprise decision to hold France’s rating has given OATs a stay of execution (S&P is up next on Nov. 27); for more on where French and European spreads go from here, see Goldman’s latest warning on Europe’s election cycle.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% to 638.10 with 442 members up and 141 down, as cyclicals lead and defensives lag, a reversal of recent performance, ahead of a busy earnings week. France’s CAC 40 outperforms with a 0.9% gain after Moody’s held the nation’s rating, and the DAX rises 0.9% after the Ifo business climate index unexpectedly improved for a sixth month to 90.2, while Spain’s IBEX is the laggard as Telefonica slumps 7% on a JPMorgan downgrade and Santander falls 4% on its Brazil exposure. Travel & leisure and autos lead, while energy trails as crude retreats. JPM’s desk notes the top baskets are Freight Sensitives, MidEast Escalation Shorts and Power, while Diesel plays, Oil sensitives and MidEast Escalation Longs are lower, and Growth/Momentum lead. Here are the biggest European movers:
- Genmab shares surge as much as 13%, the most since March 2020, after the drugmaker said a late-stage trial of its experimental treatment for ovarian cancer, Rina-S, met its primary and key secondary endpoints. The company separately gave a positive update for petosemtamab, a drug being developed to treat colorectal as well as head and neck cancer.
- Roche shares gain as much as 1.9%, to the highest since April 2022, after the pharma producer’s experimental lung cancer drug, divarasib, fared better than rivals in a late-stage study.
- PostNL shares gain as much as 5.4%, the most since Aug. 3. The Dutch courier service upgraded its free cash flow outlook to the upper end of the range and reiterated its full-year Ebit guidance, which analysts received positively in spite of weaker-than-expected volume growth in the third quarter.
- Plus500 shares rise as much as 4.6%, the most since Sept. 30, after the trading platform said it expects its financial performance to be ahead of current market expectations for FY26.
- Man Group shares gain as much as 4.9%, the most since Sept. 17, after Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance says it plans to acquire a 5% stake in the UK asset manager.
- European stocks with exposure to Brazil fall after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva came from behind to win the country’s runoff election, putting fiscal policy in focus and raising concerns that Brazilian interest rates could remain higher for longer. Among decliners are telecom operator Telefonica, lender Santander, online casino supplier Evolution
- GTT shares drop as much as 15%, the biggest decline since 2020, after the engineering firm reported a decline in revenue over the first nine months of the year.
- BASF shares fall as much as 1.8% after a downgrade to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank. Uncertainty over the potential acquisition of Evonik is likely to create a “material overhang” over the stock, according to the bank’s analysts.
Asian stocks were mixed with a mostly negative bias, as weakness in technology shares in Korea and Japan persisted ahead of a slew of tech earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped as much as 0.2%, with Samsung Electronics among the heaviest drags. Korea’s Kospi fell 1.3% (foreigners were the only net sellers), while SK Hynix bucked the broad AI selloff on the prospect of a hefty special dividend tied to its Kioxia stake. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 0.8%, with Advantest’s 3.9% slide accounting for about 55% of the decline according to Goldman, while miners and oil names rallied. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng bucked the trend, rising 0.5% led by energy names such as PetroChina (+5.8%), even as mainland investors sold for a ninth straight session via Stock Connect. China’s CSI 300 was flat (-0.04%) as China’s fifth plenum got underway, Australia’s ASX 200 edged up 0.2%, Indonesia’s JCI fell 1.5%, and Taiwan was closed for a holiday.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1% and the yen is the weakest G-10 currency, with USD/JPY up 0.3% near 157.30 ahead of Friday’s BOJ decision. The euro holds just above 1.12 after France avoided a Moody’s downgrade, while the pound lags ahead of Wednesday’s UK budget. The Brazilian real is expected to gap sharply lower at the open, with ING seeing USD/BRL up 5-7% to the 5.20/25 area and Goldman’s desk flagging a 10% move. Elsewhere, asset managers’ short positions on the Aussie dollar surged to a record high in the week ended Oct. 20.
In rates, Treasuries are narrowly mixed with the long end outperforming, flattening the yield curve as investors set up for front-loaded auctions on Monday and Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision. Front-end yields are slightly cheaper on the day, with the 2-year up 1bp at 4.69%, while the 30-year is lower by around 1bp, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s by about 2bp; the 10-year is little changed near 4.98%. This week’s auctions begin with $69 billion 2-year notes at 1pm ET, followed by $70 billion 5-year notes Tuesday and $44 billion 7-year notes Thursday; the WI 2-year yield near 4.69% is about 10bp richer than last month’s auction, which tailed by 0.2bp. Traders are pricing just a 13% chance of a hike on Wednesday while largely pricing in a 25bp hike in December (so much for a dovish Fed under Warsh). In Europe, French bonds outperform after Moody’s maintained France at Aa3 with a negative outlook, defying expectations of a downgrade, taking the OAT-bund spread to around 158bps from Friday’s 176bps peak, while bunds slip as gas prices jump and the unwind of haven flows sends money back into French debt. IG dealers expect around $30 billion of issuance this week as companies emerge from earnings blackouts.
“Risks to Treasury yields skew modestly higher over the near term, especially given that 10-year yields are once again flagging 15bp too low in our fair-value framework,” said JPMorgan’s Jay Barry.
In commodities, oil is lower with WTI down about 2.1% around $101 and Brent trading near $114, as senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan meet Iranian counterparts in Tehran and Iran’s foreign minister proposed a 7-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, subject to conditions. Supply risks haven’t gone anywhere: UKMTO reported a tanker transiting Hormuz was struck by a projectile on Oct. 23, the Houthis claim to have targeted Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude pumping stations, crude in floating storage rose 8% in the past week according to Vortexa, and IEA chief Birol says he sees no credible pathway for energy markets to return to pre-Iran war levels in 2027. Dutch TTF gas bucks the trend, up about 3% toward €97/MWh and near the €100 mark on colder weather forecasts. Spot gold is back above $4,000/oz, up 0.5% around $4,016, silver trades around $54, and LME copper is little changed.
US economic data slate includes September Chicago Fed national activity index (8:30am) and October Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (10:30am). The Fed is in its external communications blackout ahead of Wednesday’s decision. Earnings before the open include Verizon; after the close, Cadence Design, Amkor, Rambus, Welltower, Whirlpool, Brown & Brown and Alexandria Real Estate report.
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- Lula da Silva won a record fourth term as Brazil’s president in a surprise runoff defeat for Flávio Bolsonaro, who said he’ll challenge the result. Local markets are bracing for a rout, with a New York ETF tracking Brazilian equities sinking 27% premarket. BBG
- ING says the Brazilian real can slide 5-7% at the open on Lula’s victory, with the Bovespa set for double-digit losses; Brazil’s B3 changed trading range limits for rates, FX and the Bovespa. BBG
- Meta is seeking up to $95 billion in equity to fund AI spending: a $35 billion offering of $22.5 billion in Class A common stock and $12.5 billion in mandatory convertible preferred, plus an at-the-market program for up to $60 billion of non-voting Class C stock expected to start in Q1 2027; Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom are interested in buying up to $5 billion of Meta stock. Shares rise 2.4% premarket. BBG
- Saudi, Pakistani, and Turkish defense officials will travel to Tehran on Monday to discuss the region’s security challenges. Al Jazeera
- US forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially major, military operations against Iran “within 96 hours of receiving” an order from President Donald Trump, according to two US officials. CNN
- UKMTO received a time-late report that a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unknown projectile on Oct. 23, disabling the vessel. BBG
- No end is in sight to a $3.5 trillion selloff in Chinese stocks as investors see little urgency from leaders to jump-start the economy. BBG
- The EU plans safeguards to cut imports from Chinese sectors including chemicals, furniture and machinery, people familiar said. The measures may be unveiled as soon as the first quarter. BBG
- The Dutch government aims to cut 25,000 civil servant jobs in an AI-led efficiency drive targeting annual savings of €3.5 billion. BBG
- President Donald Trump at a Sunday political rally predicted a trade dispute with Canada would be resolved “soon,” without providing specifics. RTRS
- French assets rallied after the country avoided a Moody’s downgrade and a repeat over the weekend of large-scale violence and looting. BBG
- Trump pledged more announcements on the economy after Volkswagen unveiled plans to build a new $4 billion Audi factory in Georgia. The president’s failure to bring down the cost of living is weighing on Republicans’ midterm campaigns. BBG
- EQT agreed to buy Range Resources in an all-stock transaction, with each Range share exchanged for 0.987 EQT shares; the combined company will have an enterprise value of more than $50 billion. RRC rises 14% premarket, EQT falls 4.2%. BBG
- Average yields on triple-C rated junk bonds topped 16% for the first time since 2020 on Friday, and last week’s 1.6% loss was the biggest in 18 months. BBG
- HSBC strategists moved to overweight developed-market government bonds from maximum underweight, saying underperformance “has become stretched,” and turned neutral on equities from maximum overweight. BBG
- Germany’s Ifo business climate index rose to 90.2 in October, beating the 89.9 estimate and improving for a sixth month. BBG
- The PBOC unveiled a liquidity backstop for non-bank bond investors, setting up a swap facility for large non-bank bond redemptions. BBG
- Elon Musk said SpaceX has closed a $40 billion debt deal to pay for the chips needed to fuel its AI ambitions; people familiar said pricing talks were still ongoing. BBG
- Instacart is in talks to sell itself, citing people familiar with the matter: The Information
- Amex is set to slash 5% of headcount as transaction volumes fall short. BBG
- US President Trump posted “…Libya cannot remain a corridor for illegal migration, and this must end now. The United States remains firmly committed to strengthening our bilateral relationship”. Truth Social
- Goldman expects the FOMC to skip raising rates at its October meeting but to deliver a second hike in December; JPM’s Feroli sees a hold with two hawkish dissents (Hammack and Logan). GIR / JPM
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mixed with a mostly negative bias following last week’s surge in oil and amid ongoing geopolitical risks, while participants await this week’s tech earnings and several major central bank rate decisions. ASX 200 mildly outperformed, with the index kept afloat as strength in the local real estate, tech and the commodity-related sectors offset the losses in defensives, telecoms and financials. Nikkei 225 was lower amid tech headwinds and with SoftBank choppy after reports that its CEO Son is discussing a USD 50bln investment plan in Malaysia focused on AI and data centres. KOSPI retreated with some indecision seen in the tech heavyweights ahead of their Q3 earnings results this week, while SK Hynix clarified it is considering various shareholder‑return options, but added that nothing was decided and it will unveil additional plans after its Q3 earnings announcement, in response to reports that it plans a KRW 16.0tln special dividend from gains on its Kioxia investment. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with price action range-bound amid several earnings releases, while trade frictions lingered with China firmly opposing a US Treasury proposal to expand the scope and severity of restrictions on US investment in China.
Top Asian News
- Japan’s Top Automobile Industry Union Group Chief said “we look beyond inflation-linked pay hikes for 2027 labour talks”.
- China’s fifth plenum gets underway, as scheduled, which is a closed-door convention involving officials from the Communist Party’s Central Committee, while President Xi delivers the Work Report at the plenum, according to CCTV.
- Japanese PM Takaichi said she wants results on tax cut and oil diversification bills.
European bourses (Stoxx 600 +0.4%) are broadly firmer this morning, following on from a mixed APAC handover. The CAC 40 (+0.9%) is amongst the outperformers, after Moody’s maintained France’s credit rating at Aa3 with a Negative Outlook despite recent civil unrest and rising political risks. A decision which comes despite the heightened risk of a downgrade, and hence lifted French-related assets. Over in Spain, the IBEX 35 (-0.5%) is the European underperformer, weighed on by pressure in Telefonica (-7%). The Co. was subject to a downgrade at JPMorgan (Neutral to Underweight), with the firm citing concerns related to its debt structure and its UK JV, VMO2. Moreover, Santander (-4%) shares have fallen following Brazil President Lula’s victory in the elections, with investors now worried about the fiscal situation in the region. European sectors hold a strong positive bias. The typical cyclical sectors hold towards the top of the pile, with Travel & Leisure leading, joined closely by Autos. A move facilitated by pressure in the crude complex, which in turn has pushed the Energy sector towards the foot of the pile. There has been a lot of focus on some healthcare names this morning; AstraZeneca (+1%, SAFFRON Phase III trial showed statistically significant improvement in progression-free survival vs chemotherapy), Bayer (+3.3%, Phase III DASL-HiCaP trial showed a statistically significant 58% reduction in the risk of metastasis vs the placebo), Novartis (-0.3%, Remibrutinib met its primary endpoint but fell short of analyst expectations). Other key movers: Man Group (+4.7%, Co. expands partnership with Meiji Yasuda), Computacenter (+8%, lifts profit forecast), Plus500 (+4%, raises FY26 outlook after reporting solid Q3 growth). US equity futures (ES +0.4%, NQ +0.4%, RTY +0.4%) are all trading with modest gains this morning. The complex has been gradually moving higher in early trade, benefiting from the pressure seen in oil prices throughout the morning. There was no real driver for the action, but with markets potentially focusing on a delegation meeting (including Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan) in Tehran on Monday.
Top European News
- UK Chancellor Healey will use his budget this week to protect pensioners and those saving for their retirement as he announces plans to shield nearly one million people from paying income tax, according to The Times. Healey is expected to confirm on Wednesday that the full state pension will rise by GBP 489 to GBP 13,036, and that will be equivalent to a 3.9% rise.
- UK Chancellor Healey will use the upcoming budget to give mayors in England additional funding and powers, including a GBP 1.5bln borrowing facility, as part of plans to shift economic decision-making away from Westminster.
- UK pledged GBP 100mln for an AI Biosecurity Lab supported by OpenAI, Anthropic and Google DeepMind, as part of efforts to improve the government’s ability to understand and address risks posed by the technology.
- UK PM Burnham said he is “not proposing re-joining the EU in this parliament”, Sky’s McDaid reported; but would like to re-join at some point in his lifetime.
- UK PM Burnham rules out an early election; said, “I don’t think people want another backward looking squabble. They want me to get on with the job”, The Times reported.
- UK PM Burnham opened the door to Britain readopting the EU’s free-movement rules, according to The Sunday Times. It was separately reported that Burnham called for an ‘honest discussion’ on the free movement of people, which has sparked a furious debate over Britain readopting EU free movement rules, but rejected the idea that the UK could join the euro or the passport-free Schengen travel area, according to FT.
- UK PM’s office said the UK is to spend an additional GBP 432mln to help curb homelessness.
- Protests against the war and rising living costs took place in major Italian cities on Saturday, with some incidents of violence following recent unrest across the country.
- France avoided a repeat of large-scale violence and looting during Saturday’s protests, which involved around 110K people in a largely peaceful demonstration confined to the outskirts of Paris and another 300K nationwide. The CGT union put the total at 800K. However, isolated clashes were reported in several cities, with police using tear gas and water cannons.
- France’s National Rally reelected Bardella as party president in Orléans on Saturday with 98.98% of the vote, with no opposing candidate, while National Rally’s Le Pen vowed a national ‘renewal’ in a campaign launch.
- Moody’s maintained France’s credit rating at Aa3 with a Negative Outlook despite recent civil unrest and rising political risks, while Scope reaffirmed Italy’s rating at BBB+ with a Positive Outlook.
FX
- G10s are broadly softer against a firmer USD. The JPY underperforms, joined closely by the GBP. The EUR holds up relatively well, after France avoided a ratings downgrade from Moody’s on Friday.
- DXY softened in Asia as oil prices pulled back and yields eased, but has gradually ground higher since, and currently sits at the top end of a 101.58 to 101.82 range ahead of Friday and Thursday’s peaks at 101.85 and 101.88 respectively. The US data docket is light for the day (Dallas Fed Manufacturing, Chicago Fed National Activity), so attention turns to Wednesday’s FOMC, where money markets lean heavily towards a hold, alongside a busy week of tech earnings and any US-Iran developments. In geopolitics, President Trump said he is nearing a decision on whether to strike a deal with Iran or resume military strikes. Meanwhile, Barclays’ month-end model points to weak USD buying vs most majors, with no directional bias against EUR or JPY.
- GBP was the initial laggard this morning, but now off worst levels and remains towards the bottom of the G10 pile. Cable trades at the bottom end of a 1.3344-1.3388 range after finding resistance at the 100 DMA (1.3387), with no clear driver for the weakness apart from a myriad of UK budget leaks over the weekend and relative aforementioned EUR resilience. Focus this week is on Wednesday’s Autumn Budget, where Chancellor Healey is expected to confirm a 3.9% rise in the full state pension, while it was also reported over the weekend that PM Burnham opened the door to Britain readopting the EU’s free-movement rules.
- EUR/USD trades in a tight 1.1202-1.1227 range, holding just above the 1.12 mark, where EUR 1.2bln of options roll off at today’s NY cut. Moody’s maintained France’s Aa3 rating with a negative outlook on Friday, defying some expectations of a downgrade, while France largely avoided a repeat of the looting seen during previous protests on Saturday; further protests are planned for 31st October and 5th November. The ECB policy decision is due on Thursday.
- USD/JPY is firmer and holds towards the upper end of a 156.65-157.34 range, with USD 3.1bln of options at 158.00 rolling off at today’s NY cut. The BoJ is widely expected to keep rates on hold when it concludes its two-day meeting on Friday.
- The Antipodeans are softer; NZD/USD trades towards the bottom end of a 0.5685-0.5707 range, while AUD/USD holds within a 0.7022-0.7040 band. Both are in focus this week, with the RBNZ policy decision on Wednesday and Australian CPI also due Wednesday.
- CFTC Positioning (w/e 20th Oct): USD net long; EUR net short; JPY net long; GBP net short; AUD net short; NZD net short; CAD net short; CHF net short.
- Brazil’s Electoral Authority confirmed that Brazil’s Lula was re-elected president in the runoff vote, while Bolsonaro said extending voting hours was unacceptable, and it is impossible to acknowledge election results. Furthermore, Bolsonaro said they will ask that the election be annulled.
- PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7162 vs exp. 6.6691 (prev. 6.7180).
Central Banks
- RBA’s Brad Jones said in panel participation at AFR Super and Wealth Summit that super tailwinds will become headwinds as members deaccumulate and that unexpected super early release poses financial stability risk. AI valuations are punchy with increasing debt and vendor financing. Geopolitical fragmentation poses new financial system risks.
- PBoC is to set up bond market NBFI swap facility to maintain bond market stability.
- Swiss Weekly Sight Deposits (w/e Oct 23) Total: 434.743bln (prev. 457.01bln); Domestic 434.743bln (prev. 435.36bln).
Fixed Income
- A slightly mixed start to the week for fixed income. Initial strength was a function of the energy pullback; however, benchmarks remain at elevated levels given the punchy rhetoric, and Dutch TTF has climbed significantly this morning, bringing the EUR 100/MWh mark into view.
- USTs were firmer by around five ticks early doors, at a 106-10+ peak, shy of last week’s highs at 106-14+ and 106-16+ from Friday and Thursday respectively. This week is, of course, dominated by the Fed on Wednesday. Ahead of that, geopolitics will continue to influence, and by extension the recent growth/inflation discourse will feature, before PCE post-Fed.
- OATs opened higher by around 70 ticks, after Moody’s maintained the rating, an Aa3, Outlook Negative rating that is one notch higher than both S&P and Fitch’s assessment of France. The hold was broadly on the assumption that a deficit-reducing budget will at some point be adopted. Given the challenging political and deteriorating fiscal backdrop in France, this was perhaps a stay of execution rather than a change in the narrative; next, we have S&P on November 27th.
- Upside that has largely held for OATs, and by extension the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread has narrowed by almost 8bps today, after narrowing a similar amount on Friday, taking it to a 158bps low, vs Friday’s 176bps recent peak. However, MTD, it remains wider by over 30bps.
- Bunds in-fitting with USTs directionally, saw a slightly larger pullback in early hours and is hit by around 30 ticks at the time of writing, a function of the mentioned gas strength and as we look to this week’s ECB, with Moody’s hold on France removing one of the arguments for a, relatively speaking, more-dovish confab. Currently, at a 121.87 low.
- Finally, Gilts opened with very modest gains, before succumbing to the regional pressure and slipping by around 10 ticks. However, Gilt action is comparably a touch more contained, as focus remains firmly on the budget, while weekend press updates on that and UK PM Burnham’s approach to the EU were unsurprising, but still a net-supportive factor for the benchmark.
- Schneider Electric (SU FP) to sell EUR-denominated notes in a six parter.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks are lower by over 1.5% this morning, extending on the pullback seen in the Asia-Pac session. WTI Dec’26 currently holds at the bottom end of a USD 100.60-102.63/bbl range, whilst Brent Jan’27 trades at the lower end of a USD 109.22-110.98/bbl band. However, both benchmarks remain comfortably within Friday’s broad ranges (WTI: USD 98.84-103.92/bbl; Brent: USD 108.33-112.45/bbl), when crude surged and both benchmarks closed near the top of their ranges.
- The gradual pressure in the crude complex lacks a clear driver, but markets may be focusing on a meeting in Tehran on Monday between senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan and their Iranian counterparts, to discuss regional coordination. On the diplomatic front, Iran’s FM Araghchi proposed a 7-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, subject to conditions, while US President Trump said he is nearing a decision on whether to negotiate a deal with Iran or resume military strikes. The pullback in crude has helped lift broader sentiment across equities this morning.
- Dutch TTF bucks the trend and is firmer by c. 3%, holding towards the upper end of a EUR 94.25-97.64/MWh range. The contract has climbed steadily throughout the Asia-Pac session and into the European morning, although it has eased slightly from its session peak. There has been no clear headline catalyst for the move, although colder weather forecasts have been cited as supportive, while the European gas benchmark remains underpinned by ongoing LNG disruptions and low EU storage levels heading into the winter period. Elsewhere, Iran’s President is set to visit Russia today to attend the gas exporting countries’ summit, while Goldman Sachs last week said it still sees upside risks to its year-end TTF forecast of EUR 70/MWh. Across the Atlantic, Henry Hub futures are a touch lower, within a USD 2.932-3.026/MMBtu range.
- Precious metals are firmer, with spot gold back above the USD 4k/oz mark and holding at the upper end of a USD 3,978-4,022/oz range, after trading sideways just beneath that level overnight, as participants await this week’s central bank announcements, including the FOMC on Wednesday. Spot silver trades within a USD 53.62-54.41/oz band.
- 3M LME Copper is little changed and sits at the top end of a USD 14,247.78-14,361.18/t range.
- US CENTCOM said it helped Gulf states export more than 1.5bln bbls of oil since the summer.
- Libya reopened the oil pipeline from the Hamada and Tahara oilfields to Zawiya. It was also reported that Libya’s NOC reopened the Brega refinery following its closure for maintenance.
- United Arab Emirates closed additional beaches amid concerns over environmental and health impacts following an oil spill in the Persian Gulf.
- IEA chief Birol said he doesn’t see any credible pathway for energy markets to return to pre-Iran war levels in 2027.
- Iranian President is to visit Russia today to attend the gas exporting countries’ summit, Tasnim reported.
Trade/Tariffs
- EU reportedly plans to hit China with import curbs on chemicals and furniture, Bloomberg TV reported; to present new curbs on China trade as early as Q1’27.
- US President Trump defended his decision to impose tariffs during a campaign rally in Georgia, claiming they had made the US richer. He announced that Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) had agreed to build a new USD 4.2bln Audi plant in the state. Trump added that his administration had “many other announcements” to make following the announcement of Volkswagen AG’s plans to build the factory.
- US President Trump said they are getting close to a deal with Canada and that a deal could come before the elections.
- White House economic adviser Hassett said US trade negotiations with Canada had picked up and were “gathering steam”, according to an interview with Fox News.
- China said it “firmly opposes” a US Treasury proposal to expand the scope and severity of restrictions on US investment in China, describing the measures as discriminatory and “a typical example of an overly broad application of national security concerns”. China’s MOFCOM added that the proposed restrictions ran counter to the “important consensus” reached by the two countries’ presidents and would harm bilateral economic and trade cooperation, as well as US companies’ interests, while it added that Beijing will closely monitor developments and reserves the right to take corresponding measures.
Geopolitics: Iran
- US President Trump said it was “getting to be decision time” on whether to strike a deal with Tehran or resume attacks, stating, “I have a decision to make: Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal? That’s all,” according to an interview with Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures.
- US President Trump reiterated on Sunday that the Iran conflict will be ending soon one way or another, while he said higher oil prices are a small price to pay for preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and that there won’t be a strike on Iran ‘today’.
- US President Trump’s administration’s senior intelligence official warned in a memo that Iran had ramped up efforts to target US personnel, adding that lethal plots by Tehran against US citizens had reached “advanced stages”.
- US ordered the departure of diplomatic personnel and adjusted staffing at embassies across the Middle East due to Iranian efforts to target Americans and threats from Houthi militants in Yemen, according to a US official.
- US official said that they have put together an expanded list of bombing targets in Iran, which include energy and economic infrastructure, while it was also reported that Israeli PM Netanyahu could order a strike on Iran even if he loses the election, according to The New York Times.
- Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan are expected to meet with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday to discuss regional coordination, according to Sabereen News.
- US forces in the Middle East are reportedly prepared to launch major strikes against Iran within 96 hours of US President Trump’s approval, CNN reported. US officials familiar with military planning say it is a question of when, not if, Trump orders renewed strikes against Iran; action likely to be after midterms. “Officials say that Trump has not made up his mind on what he will do after the midterms but that he appears to be leaning toward ordering major action”.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi proposes a 7-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with conditions, while he stated that US military aggression and sanctions are key obstacles, adds energy cooperation with Russia boosts security and exports.
- Iranian Foreign Minister said the Qatari delegation’s visit to Iran is within the context of talks in the region. Adds that, US sanctions will impact on regional ties. Consultations are continuously underway with Pakistan to resolve technical problems more quickly.
- Iran’s FM spokesperson Baghaei, in response to the claim of a negotiation proposal from the Europeans, said “apart from a statement emphasizing the importance of negotiations, we did not see any specific proposal from the Europeans”.
- Iran’s FM spokesperson said “Iran has never closed the window of diplomacy and has been steadfast in implementing international agreements, but the history of America’s reneging on commitments cannot be ignored”.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said “fundamental and strategic changes” in the region mean “nothing will be the same” after the 40‑day war, including management of the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated that Tehran’s policies will not change “whether war breaks out or not” and warned against a military attack on Iran.
- Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei criticised US Secretary of State Rubio’s accusations of piracy against Iran and stated that the US takes pride in piracy itself.
- Iranian officials warned their targets will include US diplomats if the US returns to war, according to NYT.
- Iran’s head of the Parliament’s Civil Engineering Commission said that the Strait of Hormuz is completely under Iran’s control, adding that they are increasing speed of oil price growth in the coming days.
- Iran is reportedly launching missiles at ships, according to Open Source Intel.
- Iranian activist on Telegram posted an IRGC launcher in Sirik was hit by a missile from an unknown fighter jet minutes after firing a missile towards the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said the outcome of Israel’s elections does not matter to Tehran.
- Israeli Defence Minister Katz denies plans to attack Iran before the elections, N12 reporters say, citing sources.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu told Israel’s Channel 14 that they will strike Iran again. In relevant news, Israeli PM Netanyahu and IDF Chief Zamir reportedly clashed over a proposed military action against Iran as Netanyahu wanted to strike Iran before the elections, while Zamir requested further discussions and warned of escalation just two days before Israel’s election, according to Channel 12.
Geopolitics: Saudi-Houthi
- Houthis say they targeted Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pumping stations with drones and also attacked King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, although there is no immediate confirmation from Saudi Arabia.
- Houthi media outlets report airstrikes targeting locations in Sanaa, Yemen.
- Saudi-led coalition said it carried out military operation against Houthi targets in Yemen to neutralise sources of threats, while operation destroyed five ballistic missile storage facilities and four missile launch platforms in Houthi-controlled areas.
- Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed two missile launchers in Yemen’s Sanaa and that one had targeted Riyadh.
- “A fire broke out at the Rabigh refinery (400k BPD) in Saudi Arabia after the Yemeni armed forces targeted the refinery”, Sabereen News.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- US President Trump said US-Russia-Ukraine three-way talks are to take place very soon and that he believes both sides want a deal.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said the US, Russia and Ukraine plan trilateral technical talks in November, while he stated that Kyiv will not trade anything in exchange but is willing to hold talks and that territorial issues must be handled at the leaders’ level, although other matters can be handled by technical working groups.
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces hit a cargo vessel in the Black Sea.
- EU leaders are preparing to come to a deal on around EUR 45bln of support for Ukraine by end-2026, Politico reported citing sources; as a loan, guaranteed by the existing EU budget.
Geopolitics: Other
- North Korea said it sent a letter to the UN Security Council saying South Korea fabricated mine explosion incidents to delay and impede North Korea’s border fortification, according to KCNA. South Korea’s provocation, such as opening fire on North Korean service personnel, is a violation of the UN Charter.
Crypto
- Bitcoin is a touch firmer this morning and trades just above the USD 80k mark; Ethereum is also mildly stronger, and sits around USD 2.3k.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: Sept. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.10, prior -0.04
- 10:30: Oct. Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 8.8, prior 9.8
- 11:30: US to sell $95 billion 13-week bills and $82 billion 26-week bills
- 13:00: US to sell $69 billion 2-year notes
Central Bank Speakers
- None: the Fed is in its external communications blackout ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As we hit the last week of October, markets are continuing to grapple with three major themes: France, Iran and AI. Although less relevant for DM investors, Brazil’s surprise election result overnight, which could lead to a -25% currency adjusted decline in Brazilian equities today if overnight derivative contracts are a guide, will also be one to watch. So lots going on and also a busy week ahead around the globe. So for those who saw their clocks go back this weekend, I hope you used it for an extra hour of sleep!
Although several hundred thousand people marched and protested in France over the weekend, the more extreme scenes of the previous weekend were absent, suggesting the authorities have regained some control of the situation. France also got a boost on Friday night as Moody’s defied market expectations and maintained their Aa3 rating (negative outlook) on the sovereign. The expected one-notch cut would only have taken it in line with S&P’s A+, so shouldn’t have been too destabilising. The Euro spiked a couple of tenths very late on Friday immediately after the news and is +0.13% higher this morning, with French bond futures rising nearly three-quarters of a point.
Next the Middle East. This is likely to remain one of the main market focuses this week, with the pause in direct US-Iran fighting looking increasingly fragile. Reports from various media suggest Washington and Israel are considering renewed strikes after the US midterms, which are only 8 days away now, against a backdrop of a larger US military presence in the region, reduced diplomatic staffing and increasingly forceful Iranian warnings about retaliation. Trump said to Fox yesterday that it’s “getting to be decision time” on whether he will resume attacks or make a deal. At least the deal part is still part of the conversation.
Meanwhile, disruption around the Strait of Hormuz remains a key market risk, particularly after last week’s renewed rise in oil prices. Before the US vote comes Israel’s election tomorrow, the sixth since 2019, with the final polls still pointing to deadlock: neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition appears close to the 61 seats needed for a majority, while Eisenkot’s opposition has a modest lead in the latest polling averages. Protracted coalition talks or fresh elections are reasonable risks. Netanyahu has said he does not favour a pre-emptive strike on Iran before the election, but has left the post-election position open. A result that weakens Netanyahu could lower the immediate odds of Israeli-led escalation, whereas another stalemate — or a Netanyahu-led coalition — could leave the incentive for renewed military action intact.
The third theme is AI, and this week should provide an unusually important test of the recent concerns around the sector. Alphabet and Microsoft report on Wednesday, with Amazon following on Thursday, so the market’s reaction to their results and, especially, the latest capex plans could rival Wednesday’s FOMC for top billing. Indeed, given the recent AI-related market wobbles, the earnings may ultimately matter more for markets than the Fed, the ECB meeting on Thursday or the BoJ on Friday. September’s important PCE comes the day after the FOMC, so will have a bit less impact than normal but will count heavily towards the December FOMC. Other US releases include Thursday’s US Q3 GDP. Elsewhere, Wednesday also brings the UK Autumn Budget, where those of us in this country will keep a careful eye on what the Chancellor has in store for our taxes! Friday is particularly busy in Europe, with flash October inflation and preliminary Q3 GDP releases.
Focusing in on the US week ahead now, our economists expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday. Futures are pricing in less than a 10% chance of a hike after briefly spiking above 50% less than a couple of weeks ago after the CPI print. The interest will therefore be in Chair Warsh’s press conference and how the Fed balances still-elevated inflation and solid growth against the recent tightening in financial conditions. Our economists expect the statement itself to contain only limited changes, although dissents to a hold are possible. The broader message is still likely to be hawkish: our economists think recent inflation data support the case for further tightening over time, even if the Fed chooses to pause this week. They also expect Warsh to make clear that tighter financial conditions are not a substitute for higher policy rates.
The US data should matter for that debate too. Tomorrow brings September durable goods orders and October Conference Board consumer confidence, with our economists expecting durable goods to remain firm, helped by aircraft orders and AI-related capex. The biggest data day is Thursday, when September personal income and spending, PCE inflation and the advance Q3 GDP estimate are all released. Our economists are tracking September core PCE at +0.36% MoM, equivalent to 3.14% YoY absent revisions, although revisions to some August PPI components could keep the annual rate from rounding up to 3.2%. Our economists expect Q3 real GDP growth of +3.3% annualised, up from +2.2% in Q2. On Friday, the Q3 employment cost index will provide an important read on labour-cost pressures; a strong upside surprise would make it harder to maintain the view that the labour market is not adding to inflation pressure.
Elsewhere in the US, today brings the September Chicago Fed national activity index and October Dallas Fed manufacturing survey. Wednesday also sees the September advance goods trade balance and retail inventories, while Friday brings October MNI Chicago PMI. Other large US reporters during the week outside of Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon include Visa, Coca-Cola, Boeing, Mastercard, Intel, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, ExxonMobil and Chevron.
Globally, central banks dominate. Our economists expect the ECB to keep policy rates unchanged on Thursday (see here), following tomorrow’s bank lending survey. Our Chief Japan economist expects the BoJ to hold on Friday (see here). The market is pricing less than a 3% probability of either hiking. However, it’s an 85% and 88% probability of the Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of New Zealand of hiking on Wednesday.
Europe has a particularly busy end to the week but before that Germany’s October Ifo survey is out today and November GfK consumer confidence on Wednesday. On Friday, flash October inflation is released across the region: our economists expect headline CPI of 2.92% YoY in Germany, 3.58% in France and 4.95% in Italy. Preliminary Q3 GDP figures for Germany, France, Italy and the Eurozone are also due on Friday. In the UK, the main event is Wednesday’s Autumn Budget.
In Asia, China’s Central Committee plenum runs through to Thursday, while September industrial profits are released tomorrow. Japan has a heavy Friday calendar, including October Tokyo CPI, September unemployment, the job-to-applicant ratio, retail sales, industrial production and housing starts, alongside the BoJ decision. Australia’s September CPI is due on Wednesday.
Politics adds another layer. The market will react to Brazil’s shock election result today that we mentioned above and go into detail on below, Israel holds legislative elections tomorrow, the EU-Canada summit takes place on Thursday and Friday, and the G20 foreign ministers meet in Atlanta on Friday and Saturday.
Finally, it is a major global earnings week beyond US megacap technology. SK hynix (Wednesday) and Samsung Electronics (Thursday) earning will have global ramifications from the tech sector, while healthcare earnings includes Novartis, Eli Lilly, AbbVie, AstraZeneca and Sanofi; energy includes Shell, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, Chevron and BP; and autos include Porsche, Ford, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen.
In Asia, the KOSPI (-0.90%) is leading declines as weakness in technology shares weighs on sentiment. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-0.34%), CSI 300 (-0.47%), and Shanghai Composite (-0.09%) are also trading moderately lower. In contrast, the Hang Seng (+0.51%) and S&P/ASX 200 (+0.17%) are outperforming and bucking the broader regional trend. S&P 500 (+0.20%) and Nasdaq (+0.24%) futures are higher.
In Brazil, President Lula pulled off a remarkable and genuinely market-moving comeback overnight, winning a record fourth term by 51.8% to 48.2% against Flávio Bolsonaro, despite having lost the first round 45.1%-47.0% three weeks ago. It is the first time since Brazil returned to direct presidential elections in 1989 that the first-round runner-up has gone on to win the runoff. The result wrong-footed a market that had increasingly priced a Bolsonaro victory. A Tokyo-listed ETF tracking Brazilian equities fell around -15% in Asian trading, with the real also tracking a -10% decline according to derivatives. Bolsonaro had been viewed as the more market-friendly candidate and, after right- and centre-right parties increased their Senate share from 47% to 63% in the first round, investors had been anticipating a better chance of fiscal consolidation. Lula, by contrast, has promised an adjustment without yet specifying how it will be delivered. The important medium-term point, however, is that the rightward shift in Congress remains even after Lula’s victory, which should constrain the administration’s ability to pursue a materially looser fiscal agenda. So once the immediate election premium and Bolsonaro’s challenge to the result are digested, the bigger question for Brazilian assets will be whether Lula can use that congressional constraint to establish a credible fiscal path. That matters, especially with debt concerns already keeping rates high.
Recapping last week now, markets grappled with several risks including the French fiscal situation, AI growth fears, and a fresh jump in energy prices. We’ll dive into each, but in terms of the size of the market moves, the French situation saw the biggest reaction. In fact, the weekly widening in the Franco-German 10yr spread was still +29.5bps, even as it retreated by -6.8bps on Friday. That came as France’s 10yr OAT yield climbed +21.5bps last week to 5.01%, whilst the 10yr German bund yield fell -8.0bps to 3.34%. So that left the spread at 167bps, not far off from its closing peak during the Euro Crisis, when it moved as high as 189bps. Other assets struggled as well, with both the CAC 40 (-2.19%) and the STOXX Banks (-5.10%) falling to their lowest level since March and June, respectively, although the STOXX 600 saw a comparatively smaller decline of -1.39% (-0.31% Friday).
As that was happening, several AI names remained under pressure last week, with the Philly semiconductor index losing ground for a third consecutive week, falling -3.21% (+0.44% Friday). And, in turn, losses for chip stocks dragged down US equities more broadly, with the NASDAQ down -0.71% (-0.21% Friday), whilst the S&P 500 fell -0.47% (-0.52% Friday). The individual decliners included CoreWeave, which fell -11.65% (-2.46% Friday), and whose 5yr CDS rose another +19bps last week to 1146bps. Meanwhile, Meta’s share price fell -9.40% last week (-0.96% Friday) following its earnings, and its 5yr CDS rose +22bps to 127bps.
Elsewhere, Brent crude oil prices rose for a 3rd consecutive week, up +6.24% (+3.14% Friday) to $116.72/bbl, closing in on its $118.35/bbl post-2022 peak reached in March. Moreover, European natural gas futures also hit a post-2022 high of €93.85/MWh, having risen +7.20% last week (+4.23% Friday). That came as fears mounted about a wider escalation in the Middle East, including a New York Times report which said that the US and Israel had drawn up plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the midterm elections.
Amidst all that, US Treasuries put in a strong performance, with the 10yr yield down -7.9bps last week (+4.1bps Friday) to 4.99%. Otherwise, the Euro weakened somewhat against the Dollar, falling -0.33% last week to $1.1202. And in credit, spreads widened across the board, with US HY (+6bps), EUR HY (+40bps), US IG (+5bps), and EUR IG (+15bps) all widening. Indeed, for US HY, it was the 6th consecutive weekly widening, which is the first time that’s happened since 2022. The headline moves understated the decompression down the rating spectrum: Euro BBs widened +26bps and Bs +46bps, while CCCs were +105bps wider. US BBs widened just +3bps and Bs +8bps compared with +59bps for CCCs. So one of the clearer messages from the week was that the pressure remains concentrated in the weakest credits rather than representing indiscriminate HY selling, especially in the US.
1b) European opening report
1 c) Asian opening report
2.NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA/
JAPAN//
JAPAN CHINA/USA
3 CHINA
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
FRANCE/SATURDAY:
Riots Erupt In France As Far-Left Fuels Unrest For Second Weekend
Saturday, Oct 24, 2026 – 11:47 AM
Summary:
- Despite France Deploying Extra Police, Riots Continue
- EU’s Far-Left Uprising Is a Security Concern
- Riots Begin In France, Spread To Brussels
- France Deploys 70,000 Police As Cities Brace For Far-Left Chaos
French Riots Begin
By late afternoon, riots had spread to multiple cities, and France had deployed 70,000 police officers across major metro areas nationwide.
Here’s where police are deployed to counter far-left groups trying to overthrow capitalism and the government while sparking chaos across the West.
The New York Times cited Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez, who estimated turnout at 35,000 by midday nationwide, well below the level recorded at the same point last Saturday. More than half a million people had demonstrated by the end of that day.
Footage from this afternoon:
Far-left riots spreading to Brussels:
Europe has a far-left extremism crisis, something we’ve outlined. We’ve also reported that high-level US State Department officials met with their European counterparts over the summer to discuss the matter.
The riots are embarrassing for the European progressive experiment, as lefty corporate media outlets run cover for the left. BBC News described the riots as “mostly peaceful” last week, while other left-wing outlets downplayed the chaos.
One has to wonder why this surge of highly coordinated unrest by far-left groups has accelerated now and whether it reflects a pressure campaign toward the rising right wing, from Germany to France, where Le Pen leads the polls. Nomura analysts also anticipate a rightward shift during Europe’s election cycle over the next year and a half.
France Deploys 70,000 Police As Cities Brace For Far-Left Chaos
France deployed as many as 70,000 police officers across major metro areas on Saturday morning to prevent another far-left uprising, as the Macron government is plagued by a growing list of crises, including social unrest, financial turmoil and unfettered mass migration.
The deployment, reinforced by military troops, armored vehicles, drones and helicopters, is centered on Paris, Marseille, Lyon and other cities. Several municipalities banned downtown protests, and authorities maintained curfews into the weekend.
Rioting last week resulted in more than 2,500 arrests, nearly 1,000 injured police officers and over 3,000 looted stores. The unrest has disrupted business activity and prompted Paris retailers to board up their storefronts.
Self-described anti-communist analyst Karlyn Borysenko provided her analysis of the highly coordinated uprisings by the far left:
The riots in France started as a student uprising. There were certainly students from immigrant communities involved in the uprising. The uprising was facilitated by by their teachers, just like what happens in the United States. It was caused by leftist indoctrination in schools, with teachers training the students to be activists – that is the cause.
Following the start of the student movement, it expanded to include teachers, university students, the major labor unions and the antifa/anti-capitalist groups. All of it is grounded in far-left ideology. They are explicitly calling for the communist overthrow of the government and now it is bleeding into other countries in the region. That is what all the evidence says. And I’ve collected primary source evidence from multiple groups, including recordings you refuse to look at.
Earlier in the week, Fox News’ Asra Nomani released a report that identified the dozens of groups behind the unrest, in which her team found:
Of the 54 organizations identified in the October protest ecosystem, 16 — or only about one in three — are student or youth organizations, including communist youth groups and a Muslim student association. The remaining 38 include adult-led communist groups, labor unions, political parties, revolutionary-left organizations, advocacy groups and international propaganda outlets.
Footage from Saturday morning shows some of the protests are already turning violent.
Nomani highlighted the spread of protests and riots across multiple countries. One possible view is that far-left groups are attempting to turn local grievances into a broader revolutionary campaign.
Beyond weeks of social unrest in France and the Macron government still struggling to squash this movement, Moody’s on Friday spared the country from a credit ratings downgrade.
“The Aa3 rating assumes that a deficit-reducing budget for 2027 will be adopted, while financing costs and social tensions will abate somewhat in the next few months,” Moody’s said in a statement.
France’s OAT-Bund spread closed around 167.4 bps on Friday, approaching levels seen at the height of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
Review the latest:
- OAT-Bund Spread Hits EU Crisis Level Highs
- France’s Debt Crisis Is No Longer The Story… Contagion Is
Lefty corporate media has run cover for the far left, with the BBC calling riots “mostly peaceful.” One assessment is that the far left views sustained disruption as a way to get concessions as the government discusses reducing the budget deficit, which would certainly impact handouts. These groups are also resisting a potential Le Pen presidency.
And of course, these groups also have anti-capitalist ambitions and aim to destroy the Western world. One immediate risk is that instability could drag on into the months ahead.
NET
FRANCE/
Paris Police Chief Sparks Outcry By Advising Shopkeepers To Hire Private Security Ahead Of Saturday’s Far-Left Protests
Saturday, Oct 24, 2026 – 08:10 AM
Authored by Etienne Fauchaire via The Epoch Times,
Shop owners in Paris are bracing for a new weekend of far-left protests against the rising cost of living, after last week’s demonstrations devolved into violence, looting, and arson across France.
In the capital, 451 shops were vandalized on Oct. 17 and 18, including 228 that were looted, according to the City of Paris. The government counts about 3,000 businesses hit nationwide.
On Oct. 22, nearly every store along the Champs-Élysées was barricading its storefront with metal shutters, security grilles, or wooden boards, as bewildered tourists looked on, The Epoch Times observed. Chanel, Lacoste, and Louis Vuitton all had been targeted by looters last week.
Near the Place de la République, workers have been screwing plywood panels over windows and doors, while posters on the boards invite residents to join a neighborhood WhatsApp group against break-ins.
Shops were not the only targets on Oct. 17. In Paris, individuals also forced their way into residential buildings, The Epoch Times witnessed.
Hire Private Security Agents
In a letter sent on Oct. 21 to Paris’s local elected officials, reported by France Info, Police Prefect Patrice Faure urged shop owners near the protest routes to hire private security agents, “possibly with dog-handler teams,” lower their shutters, and consider not opening on Saturday.
The reinforced police deployment cannot on its own guarantee the protection of every establishment, the letter states.
The advice sparked outcry from critics who said protecting citizens is the state’s job, not shopkeepers’.
“The government is asking shopkeepers to pay for private security guards out of their own pockets. This is an admission that it can no longer fulfill its most fundamental duty: protecting the French people,” Sarah Knafo, a member of the European Parliament and one of the leading figures of the conservative Reconquest party, said on X.
“In return,” she said, “can shopkeepers stop paying taxes to the government?”
David Lisnard, the president of New Energy, wrote on X that this is “an unacceptable admission of powerlessness and a complete reversal of fundamental principles.”
“Shopkeepers pay for the repairs, pay taxes so that the state ensures their security, and are now expected to pay a third time for private security,” he said.
Faure later conceded a “clumsiness” in his wording, while stating that protecting shop owners remained the authorities’ responsibility and priority.
Unarmed and Outnumbered
Requests for quotes have doubled since the riots, according to the French Union of Security Professions, the industry federation.
“Calls to our switchboard and email requests have multiplied,” Raphaël Mashhadi, manager of the Paris firm Gardiennage Paris RMS, told The Epoch Times.
Clothing boutiques, grocery stores, and hotels are booking guards in advance “on top of physical protections such as wooden panels,” he said.
A 12-hour night shift costs 420 euros (about $470) before tax, Mashhadi said, against the 10,000 to 20,000 euros he said a smashed storefront window can cost.
“The difference speaks for itself,” he said.
Cyril Baudouin, who runs RPro Sécurité, told The Epoch Times that his activity had risen by 5 percent to 15 percent and that he would turn down requests he could not staff. He called the appeal “a bit unfortunate” for shop owners who already suffered losses and must now pay for their own protection.
“It might have been preferable for the state to pay for the service, or to requisition private security companies, since prefects have the power to do so,” Baudouin said.
Under French law, security guards are normally confined to the premises they are hired to protect, and they can only carry a weapon when lives are considered to be at “exceptional risk,” and even then only with the prefect’s sign-off for each individual assignment.
“We cannot be armed the way police officers and gendarmes are,” Mashhadi said.
Baudouin said a prefectoral order could at least have allowed agents to carry pepper gel on the street during the protest.
“A security agent alone can do nothing. What we saw was not even a crowd; it was a horde of rioters, violent people, and there were many of them,” Baudouin said.
The only option is to evacuate staff, lock up, and call the police, he said, stressing that guards may block a doorway but can’t strike anyone, as a single complaint can cost them their license.
“We are there to prevent, deter, alert, and assist.”
Businesses Arming Themselves
While some have turned to private security firms, others are taking matters into their own hands, enlisting friends and relatives to watch over their stores or, in some cases, arming themselves.
Gun shop orders have risen tenfold since the looting, according to Yves Gollety, a Paris gunsmith who heads the national gunsmiths’ association, who told AFP buyers were “essentially shop owners and restaurateurs completely traumatized by what happened.” Rubber-ball launchers, tear-gas canisters, and telescopic batons are selling out.
An Elabe poll for BFMTV found that 61 percent of French people believe they will have to ensure their own safety because the police “no longer manage to protect the population,” and half fear for their safety or belongings.
Macron Acknowledges ‘Failures of Anticipation’
On Oct. 22, after convening the intelligence services at the Élysée, Macron acknowledged “failures of anticipation” and “elements of surprise” before the Oct. 17 violence, which he blamed on “political and even seditious acts carried out by organized ultra-left groups whose aim is to bring down the Republic.”
END
France Deploys 70,000 Police As Cities Brace For Far-Left Chaos
Saturday, Oct 24, 2026 – 09:10 AM
France deployed as many as 70,000 police officers across major metro areas on Saturday morning to prevent another far-left uprising, as the Macron government is plagued by a growing list of crises, including social unrest, financial turmoil and unfettered mass migration.
The deployment, reinforced by military troops, armored vehicles, drones and helicopters, is centered on Paris, Marseille, Lyon and other cities. Several municipalities banned downtown protests, and authorities maintained curfews into the weekend.
Rioting last week resulted in more than 2,500 arrests, nearly 1,000 injured police officers and over 3,000 looted stores. The unrest has disrupted business activity and prompted Paris retailers to board up their storefronts.
Self-described anti-communist analyst Karlyn Borysenko provided her analysis of the highly coordinated uprisings by the far left:
The riots in France started as a student uprising. There were certainly students from immigrant communities involved in the uprising. The uprising was facilitated by by their teachers, just like what happens in the United States. It was caused by leftist indoctrination in schools, with teachers training the students to be activists – that is the cause.
Following the start of the student movement, it expanded to include teachers, university students, the major labor unions and the antifa/anti-capitalist groups. All of it is grounded in far-left ideology. They are explicitly calling for the communist overthrow of the government and now it is bleeding into other countries in the region. That is what all the evidence says. And I’ve collected primary source evidence from multiple groups, including recordings you refuse to look at.
Earlier in the week, Fox News’ Asra Nomani released a report that identified the dozens of groups behind the unrest, in which her team found:
Of the 54 organizations identified in the October protest ecosystem, 16 — or only about one in three — are student or youth organizations, including communist youth groups and a Muslim student association. The remaining 38 include adult-led communist groups, labor unions, political parties, revolutionary-left organizations, advocacy groups and international propaganda outlets.
Footage from Saturday morning shows some of the protests are already turning violent.
Nomani highlighted the spread of protests and riots across multiple countries. One possible view is that far-left groups are attempting to turn local grievances into a broader revolutionary campaign.
Beyond weeks of social unrest in France and the Macron government still struggling to squash this movement, Moody’s on Friday spared the country from a credit ratings downgrade.
“The Aa3 rating assumes that a deficit-reducing budget for 2027 will be adopted, while financing costs and social tensions will abate somewhat in the next few months,” Moody’s said in a statement.
France’s OAT-Bund spread closed around 167.4 bps on Friday, approaching levels seen at the height of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
Review the latest:
- OAT-Bund Spread Hits EU Crisis Level Highs
- France’s Debt Crisis Is No Longer The Story… Contagion Is
Lefty corporate media has run cover for the far left, with the BBC calling riots “mostly peaceful.” One assessment is that the far left views sustained disruption as a way to get concessions as the government discusses reducing the budget deficit, which would certainly impact handouts. These groups are also resisting a potential Le Pen presidency.
And of course, these groups also have anti-capitalist ambitions and aim to destroy the Western world. One immediate risk is that instability could drag on into the months ahead.
END
FRANCE
French Officials Say 1,300 Arrests Made Amid Latest Unrest
Monday, Oct 26, 2026 – 10:50 AM
Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,
More than 1,300 people were arrested in another day of protests and riots, after a mass march in Paris a day earlier, according to authorities in France.
The French Interior Ministry said officials responded to 75 fires during Saturday’s riots, and added that 24 shops were looted, reported the AFP news agency.
“Several investigations have been opened,” the ministry said, adding that clashes had died down later on Saturday, the report said.
Overall, 1,314 arrests were made in the weekend protests, the ministry said, according to AFP.
In a statement on Saturday, Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez said he wanted to “salute the exceptional commitment and professionalism of all the regional prefects, prefects, police officers, gendarmes, and firefighters mobilized across France to ensure the safety of our fellow citizens and allow the processions to proceed smoothly.”
“But notably in Paris, Marseille, Lyon, Grenoble, Nantes, Angers, Lille, and many other cities, individuals from the ultra-left and radical far-left have once again sought to sow disorder, particularly during the dispersal of the processions,” he continued. “These acts are unacceptable.”
The minister added that he backs police officers and other French security officials who were injured Saturday, but didn’t provide specifics.
“The violence inflicted on the internal security forces, once again, is intolerable,” he said, according to a translation. “They are deliberately targeted because of their uniforms and, above all, because they are the bulwarks of our Republic that these radical militants seek to bring down.”
More than a month of unrest that started with protests in high schools for more funding and teachers is testing President Emmanuel Macron’s authority in the final months of his presidency before voters choose his successor in May 2027.
The stakes are high: The right-wing National Rally party has accused his government of failing to protect the public and urged people to channel their anger into votes for its candidate, Marine Le Pen. On the left, presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon has backed demonstrators and criticized policing that has left some protesters with life-changing injuries.
In the United States, President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance have said that riots, looting, and violence were the result of mass immigration policies and France and across Europe.
Trump has also warned that if Republicans don’t win in the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3, then similar chaos could emerge in the United States.
Speaking in a Kansas rally to boost GOP candidates last week, the U.S. president warned that France is “being conquered, looted, and burned to the ground” by migrants who “hate, frankly, the Western civilization itself.”
The president was referring to protests earlier this week that devolved into mayhem, with people setting fires, storming public buildings, smashing shop windows, looting, and clashing with police. It was noted as France’s most violent unrest in years.
END
UK
Racist? UK Charities Are Paying White People A Third Less Than Ethnics
Saturday, Oct 24, 2026 – 09:35 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
Oxfam paid its white staff a median of 33% less than colleagues who described themselves as black or a person of colour last year, according to the charity’s own annual report. Cancer Research UK and the British Red Cross reported similar negative ethnicity pay gaps in favour of ethnic minority staff.
The figures, drawn from the organisations’ voluntary disclosures, have prompted questions about how “positive action” provisions in the Equality Act 2010 are being applied in practice. Critics argue the measures, intended to address under-representation, are producing outcomes that disadvantage white employees in recruitment, promotion and pay.
Oxfam’s ethnicity pay gap stood at -33.0% on the median and -12.9% on the mean, based on data from 69.2% of staff who shared their ethnicity. Black or people of colour (BPOC) staff made up 10.5% of the workforce. The median gap had been -10.4% the previous year.
The charity noted that a higher proportion of staff in the top two pay quartiles disclosed their ethnicity, and that lower overall numbers of BPOC colleagues “may be driving a skew in the pay gap.” It stated the figures “cannot be seen as conclusive” but were “suggestive of lower average pay at the charity for white workers.”
A spokesman for Oxfam said the organisation was “committed to fair, inclusive recruitment practices that value diversity and ensure everyone has the opportunity to thrive. We do not operate a policy of positive discrimination,” adding that the “reported ethnicity pay gap is not evidence of unequal pay for the same work.”
Cancer Research UK reported that white staff were paid 7.6% less on average in 2025. The charity has recorded a negative gap in favour of ethnic minority employees since 2020, though it said the figure is now “the closest to being neutral it has ever been.”
It attributed much of the disparity to a higher proportion of white staff in lower-paid high-street retail roles and a larger share of ethnic minority staff in higher-paying positions such as technology.
The British Red Cross reported an 11.4% gap in favour of ethnic minority staff. Racially minoritised colleagues made up 19.6% of its workforce. A spokesman said the charity’s “priority is to ensure people are paid fairly for the work they do and that our workforce reflects the communities we serve” and that it was committed to equal pay “regardless of ethnicity.”
James Wild, the Shadow Culture Minister, said individuals “should be rewarded for their talent and hard work, regardless of their background or ethnicity.” He added: “Fairness means ensuring everyone has an equal opportunity to succeed, not preferential treatment or discrimination that puts others at an unfair disadvantage. Pay should be based on merit, skills and performance, rather than factors beyond anyone’s control.”
Suella Braverman, Reform UK’s Equalities Spokesman, described the results as “the Equality Act laid bare. Rampant positive action schemes are actively discriminating against white, working-class Brits in favour of ethnic minorities, leading to certain groups gaining an upper hand when it comes to the jobs market. This is simply unacceptable. We cannot live in a society that values thoughts and feelings over merit.”
Lord Young of Acton, founder of the Free Speech Union, said: “The positive action section of the Equality Act has become a get-out-of-jail-free card for any employer who wants to discriminate against white people. I expect we’ll see much more of this once the reporting requirement becomes mandatory.”
Under the Equality Act, positive action allows proportionate steps to address disadvantage or under-representation connected to a protected characteristic. It is distinct from positive discrimination, which remains unlawful.
Critics contend that in practice the distinction is being blurred in hiring and advancement decisions. A forthcoming government requirement will compel organisations with more than 250 staff to publish ethnicity and disability pay gap reports; currently such disclosures are voluntary.
A Broader Pattern
The charity figures sit within a series of documented cases in which white applicants or employees have faced restrictions or differential treatment in public and quasi-public bodies.
Police forces have faced repeated scrutiny over recruitment practices and internal training. One force blocked applications from white candidates for certain roles. Officers have also been required to complete training that frames white privilege as a necessary starting point for professional conduct.
Two-Tier: WHITE Jobseekers LOCKED OUT Of Employment Schemes
No job for you whitey
The same culture exists within education.
London Council Admits It Will Discriminate Against White People In Job Advert
“We will utilise positive action provisions”
At the BBC, white staff received lower median pay than ethnic minority colleagues in six of seven pay bands according to the broadcaster’s latest figures, with the gap reaching 13.2% in the lowest band and 5.3% among senior leaders.
The band-level pattern has drawn attention alongside the corporation’s diversity targets and programmes.
No WHITES Allowed: MI5 Tells Applicants
Says white students shouldn’t bother applying
Why I’m Suing the Bar Council Over ‘No Whites’ Internship Scheme
Some have argued that this discrimination is justified under the banner of “positive action”
UK Police Being Forced To Undergo Training To Accept Their ‘White Privilege’
There has been a “very strong, at times bordering on aggressive” response from white officers
The consistent direction of the gaps in these large organisations, combined with explicit restrictions on white applicants elsewhere and the legal framework of positive action, has reinforced concerns that equal treatment is no longer the operating principle in significant parts of the public and charitable sector. Mandatory reporting is likely to surface further examples.
END
GERMANY
Fire Engulfs Hitler’s “Eagle’s Nest” Retreat In Bavarian Alps, Suspect Detained
Saturday, Oct 24, 2026 – 09:45 AM
Fire tore through the Kehlsteinhaus, the Alpine guesthouse known as Hitler’s “Eagle’s Nest,” on Friday night, and German police said they had detained a suspect near the scene, Reuters reported.
Emergency dispatchers in Traunstein were alerted at about 9:15 p.m., Berliner Zeitung reported, and when the first crews reached the site at 9:52 p.m. the entire building was already burning. A smoke detector inside had set off the alarm at about 9:50 p.m., t-online said.
Around 200 firefighters, mountain rescuers, Red Cross workers and police were involved, with crews from six municipalities. The steep, narrow mountain road kept heavy fire trucks from reaching the site easily, and crews had to set up an additional water supply, according to Bayerischer Rundfunk as cited by Berliner Zeitung. Police spokesperson Lisa Maier said the building could be entered only with heavy breathing apparatus, according to t-online. A police spokesperson told the German tabloid Bild the building was so badly damaged that it “could probably not be saved,” Reuters said. Nobody was found inside and no injuries were reported, Euronews reported.
Police said a suspect came into the investigators’ focus shortly after the fire broke out and was taken into custody. “Whether the individual is connected to the fire is currently the subject of the criminal investigation,” police said, per Euronews. The Traunstein criminal police took over the case under the direction of the public prosecutor, and no motive has been reported.
Bild reported that a police spokesperson cited a suspicion of arson, and that the person detained is a motorcyclist who passed rescue workers heading up to the building. Berliner Zeitung and t-online both attribute that to Bild rather than to an official police statement, and t-online notes it is unclear whether the motorcyclist is the same person as the suspect police described.
The Kehlsteinhaus was built in 1937 and 1938 at the initiative of Martin Bormann, and Wikipedia puts the cost at 30 million Reichsmarks and the death toll among construction workers at twelve. It is separate from Hitler’s Berghof residence, and the same entry documents at least 14 visits by Hitler. The building was spared in Allied bombing and, per its own website quoted by CBS News, is “one of the few undamaged monuments of the Hitler era.”
The Free State of Bavaria owns the building, which was classified after the war as a historical monument and has run as a mountain restaurant and tourist attraction since 1952. Police said further findings would be released Saturday. Which parts of the historic structure can be preserved is not yet known.
END
EU/CHINA
EU Climbs Escalation Ladder With Beijing, Plans Wider Curbs On Chinese Imports
Monday, Oct 26, 2026 – 08:20 AM
Europe’s political elite is belatedly confronting the electoral cost of deindustrialization, as right-wing gains in local elections expose surging voter anger over globalist policies that have crushed the industrial base. The push to curb cheap Chinese imports suggests Brussels is scrambling for political survival, as Nomura analysts recently said elections across the continent over the next year and a half are expected to shift right.
Bloomberg reports that the EU is preparing restrictions on imports of chemicals, furniture, and machinery from China, expanding efforts to shield domestic manufacturers and narrow the massive trade deficit with China, which stands at $404 billion. The report cited people familiar with the matter.
“Our industries have called for action and we have heard them, and we will respond, including some more safeguards,” Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said earlier this month.
The proposed safeguards build on earlier news that Brussels aims to implement the Chinese hybrid vehicle cap in December to shield the EU’s crumbling automotive industry, as cheap overseas cars gain market share and leave domestic companies like VW laying off tens of thousands of workers.
Brussels has finally chosen to move up the “escalation ladder” with China, risking retaliation from Beijing as its own political power appears to be eroding across Europe after decades of backfiring globalist policies that have left the continent with a hollowed-out industrial base.
EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič is expected to discuss trade with Chinese counterparts early next year, as Brussels must perform a delicate balancing act to avoid provoking Beijing into imposing export restrictions on critical materials and permanent magnets.
Earlier this month, we first reported “Better Late Than Never?” and our verdict was “just 10 years too late.” The more interesting question is how far Brussels is willing to climb up the escalation ladder with Beijing.
Deutsche Bank’s Marion Muehlberger answered that in a ten-question Q&A published earlier this month, ahead of Šefčovič’s trip to Beijing, titled “Crunch time for EU-China trade relations” (available to Pro subscribers). The centerpiece is a single table, which may be the most useful cheat sheet on EU-China trade policy we have seen: every tool Brussels could deploy against Beijing, ranked from most to least likely, with the precedent and the catch for each one.
So far Brussels is willing to raise tariffs and cap imports. But the higher it climbs up the escalation ladder, the greater the risk that Beijing pulls the rare earth supplies, starving the very factories European elites are scrambling to save.
END
5.RUSSIA AND ISRAEL AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFIARS
ISRAEL/IRAN/USA //MONDAY
Saudi, Turkey, Pakistan Officials In Tehran For Last-Ditch Diplomacy, As US Prepares 96-Hour Strike Window
Monday, Oct 26, 2026 – 10:05 AM
There are many indicators that the US and Israel could soon attack Iran again, with media consensus in the US pointing to the likelihood of a renewed bombing campaign after the midterm elections.
In the interim, regional countries are scrambling for a diplomatic breakthrough, seeking to stave off the next escalation round, given also that past Iranian retaliation has imposed a huge cost on America’s Gulf allies.
Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey in Tehran for high level talks, the deputy secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Bagheri, has confirmed Monday.
This includes Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani Army Commander General Asim Munir, and Turkish Intelligence Chief Ibrahim Kalin – who will engage the Iranian side on “regional security”.
Notably, these three countries are signatories to the Mecca Defense Pact and are also allies of the United States, with Turkey being a NATO member.
Iran’s Bagheri stated, “The Islamic Republic of Iran’s model of defense based on internal and domestic capabilities has become a successful model for building national security.”
“On the other hand, Iran’s strategic policy is to ensure regional security through regional countries and confront any foreign interference and influence, led by the American and Zionist regimes,” he added.
Bagheri praised the “fruit of the heroic efforts and struggles of the armed forces and the Iranian nation” and expressed hope that Iranian resistance to US-Israeli aims would result in a “region with stability and peace and on the path of progress.”
Reuters has cited a senior Iranian official who says the meeting was initiated by Pakistan.
Jason Brodsky, a hawkish think tank pundit, has reacted to the diplomatic scramble in Tehran:
The stories write themselves at this point. I would not be surprised to see a last minute call from regional countries to President Trump pleading for a delay in any military operation against Iran, citing that progress is just around the corner on negotiations or deal that will later fall apart.
Over the weekend, just prior to the Mecca Pact countries’ delegations going to Tehran, Qatari mediators were also once again in the Iranian capital to “de-escalate regional tensions.“
Meanwhile, CNN is reporting that the White House has plans to relaunch major attacks on Iran, and that more American forces are being deployed to the Middle East, so that strikes against Iran could be carried out “within 96 hours of receiving” an order from the president.
According to that reporting:
Sufficient forces are now deployed in the region to carry out the potential attacks, the sources said. The scope of new US military operations would likely go beyond efforts to simply “mow the lawn” or maintain the status quo by striking radars, launchers and other Iranian assets that can be quickly reconstituted — as has been the case since Trump halted full combat operations earlier this year, the sources added.
“It will be a big effort,” one of the officials told CNN. That view has been echoed by other current and former US officials familiar with internal military planning discussions — some of whom say it is a question of when, not if, Trump will issue a go-order. They believe it could come any time before the end of the year, though most likely after the US midterm elections.
But it remains the that US administration has yet to define the end goal or ‘mission accomplished’ moment, now in month eight of what was supposed to be a “two to four-week” conflict. So far, escalation has tended to simply beget more escalation, and not an offramp.
A major new bombing campaign would put immensely more pressure on Iran, but would do the same for America’s Gulf allies, given they would probably face a huge wave of retaliation from the IRGC in the form of ballistic missiles and drones.
ISRAEL TBN
IRAN
Iranian Army Says It Shot Down US LUCAS Drone That Was Flying Over Southern Iran
Monday, Oct 26, 2026 – 09:40 AM
Authored by Dave DeCamp via Antiwar.com,
The Iranian Army said on Sunday that its forces shot down a US LUCAS drone over the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas, an incident that comes as the US and Israel appear poised to launch another round of major strikes against Iran.
So far, the US hasn’t confirmed losing a LUCAS and hasn’t responded to the Iranian claim. The LUCAS, or Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack Systems, is the US version of the Iranian Shahed-136 drone and was first deployed to the region last year.
Iran’s PressTV published a photo that it said showed the wreckage of a US LUCAS drone in Bandar Abbas and said that Iranian forces previously shot one down in July.
Photo published by PressTV that’s said to show the LUCAS wreckage
US Central Command first announced in December 2025 that it had deployed a fleet of LUCAS drones in the Middle East, calling it the “first one-way-attack drone squadron based in the Middle East.” On February 26, 2026, two days before the US and Israel began bombing Iran, CENTCOM said that the LUCAS drones were ready to strike the Islamic Republic.
LUCAS drones are said to cost about $35,000 for the US to produce. Iranian air defenses have also shot down at least 45 US MQ-9 Reaper drones since the war began, a much more expensive unmanned aerial vehicle, costing somewhere between $30 million and $50 million to manufacture.
END
JORDAN
Gunmen Attack Orthodox Church In Jordan During Service, Killing 7 & Wounding Dozens
Friday, Oct 23, 2026 – 10:10 PM
Multiple gunmen brutally attacked a church in Jordan on Friday in the middle of a funeral, killing at least seven people and wounding 34 others – in what is one of the worst terror attacks on Christians in the country’s modern history.
The Jordanian government quickly condemned the act as terrorism, and authorities are reportedly seeking the attackers amid an investigation.
It happened in Jordan’s Karak region, south of the capital of Amman, at St. George Orthodox Church – in a region which has been home to a sizeable ancient Christian community for some 2,000 years.
According to a Reuters description of the terror assault:
Interior Minister Mazin Al Farrayeh said the attack had been carried out by “extremists”, but that it was too early to tell whether they had any links to known groups either inside or outside Jordan. There was no immediate claim of responsibility.
A video aired on Jordan’s state-owned Al-Mamlaka television station that appeared to be from a security camera mounted on the church showed three people firing at it from a sidewalk and hiding behind trees and a low wall. The video showed the attackers then running towards the church’s entrance. Reuters was able to verify the video from the entry path and wall surrounding the church, as well as other details.
Some reports have been suggesting an ISIS or other takfiri or jihadist association of the attackers, but there’s been nothing official yet as to their identities.
The attack happened for several minutes, with people at the entrance of the church seen scattering, and with some immediately collapsing to the ground after being hit amid a hail of bullets. The attackers appeared to go inside the church, where the massacre continued. Around 150 to 200 people were at the church at the time.
Jordan’s King Abdullah soon after said the killers would be apprehended and punished “with an iron fist”.
“The terrorist attack against Karak will be met with the harshest retaliation. Those who delude themselves into thinking that they can divide Jordanians with their bullets have no chance in the face of our unity,” he said in a statement.
St. George Church is under the ecclesiastical jurisdiction of the Greek Orthodox Patriarchate of Jerusalem. Orthodox Christianity in Jordan is so old and rooted that it predates the birth of Islam by centuries, going back to Biblical times. Indigenous Christians there have over the centuries spoken and worshipped in ancient languages including Arabic, Greek, and Aramaic.
The US ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz called the attack on Jordanian Christians a “depraved and brutal attack on a house of worship.”
In neighboring Syria, Iraq, the West Bank, and Gaza – ancient Christian communities have also suffered attacks, along with being squeezed by fast-moving geopolitical events.
US policy in the region has not been friendly to Middle East Christians, and Washington continues to barely acknowledge their presence. For example, throughout the Syria proxy war to oust Assad, the US covertly armed and funded groups which openly declared they seek to exterminate Christians, Alawites, Shiites, and other non-Sunni religious minorities.
* * *
For more on Levantine Christians and Geopolitics:
“We are a church of martyrs and we will stay.“
END
ISRAEL/WEST BANK
Netanyahu Locks Down West Bank, Launches Massive Operation After Two IDF Soldiers Killed
Saturday, Oct 24, 2026 – 11:20 AM
Just a few days away from Israel’s national elections, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered a major new military and security operation in the occupied West Bank late Friday into Saturday. It is expected to continue through next week, when Israelis head to the polls.
Mass arrests are being carried out, as well as home and neighborhood demolitions. The action follows a Friday incident where two Palestinian gunmen shot and killed two Israeli soldiers at a checkpoint near Hebron.
The suspected gunmen were shot dead in the immediate security response, and the West Bank was immediately put on full lock-down, amid Israeli house-to-house searches in the neighborhood where the attackers were believed to be from. The attackers had each reportedly been armed with an M16 rifle and a handgun.
“We will act to destroy this place, to change it completely,” Netanyahu said. Already there are reports that family members and relatives of the two shooters have had their homes demolished, with area residents forcibly displaced.
The prime minister said further, “When we win the election, we’ll finish the job. We’ve completed 90 percent; we need to take it all the way, that means bringing down the Iranian regime and finishing off Hamas and Hezbollah.”
And so the timing of the decision to lock down the whole of the West Bank is obviously politically driven to a large degree, in order to signal Israel domestically.
Al Jazeera reports that already some 2,200 local Palestinians have been expelled from their homes:
- Hebron Mayor Yousef al-Ja’bari tells Al Jazeera around 2,200 Palestinians have been forcibly displaced from their homes in the city’s al-Jalda and Ein Deir Bahha neighbourhoods, as Israeli forces continue military operation in the occupied West Bank.
- Israeli forces arrest scores of Palestinians across the West Bank, the Palestinian Prisoners’ Club rights group says, with raids reported in 15 areas, including Ramallah, Jenin, Nablus, Bethlehem, Jerusalem, Al-Bireh and Birzeit.
Tensions were already soaring even more this latest attack on an Israeli checkpoint, and so this new large-scale operation could bring more such incidents, given Palestinians perceive that the likely end goal of Israeli forces is to eradicate their existence from the land.
Reports of large iron gates erected around Hebron:
Israeli rights group B’Tselem has condemned the action, warning against “collective punishment and acts that could constitute war crimes.”
The IDF military has responded to mounting criticism by saying it is allowing Hebron and other residents viable exit points.
“The forces have begun conducting precise, targeted and thorough searches throughout the area to locate and dismantle terrorist infrastructure and weapons, while questioning suspects,” the IDF and Shin Bet announced in the statement.
“The operation is targeted and limited to the area from which the terrorists operated, and is expected to continue for several days,” it added. “Residents living in the area will be able to exit through three designated checkpoints after questioning,” the statement indicated further.
The military would also be “demolishing illegal structures that could pose a security threat at the site of the encounter,” it said. But some international monitors have pointed to another operation that paves the way for a land grab and Jewish settler expansion under the guise of a counter-terror operation.
END
SAUDI ARABIA VS HOUTHIS
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
RUSSIA/USA
Five Reasons Why Trump Is More Serious Than Ever About Cutting Deals With Putin
Friday, Oct 23, 2026 – 10:35 PM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
Although Putin might agree to some trade-offs in Ukraine as the quid pro quo for these deals, it’s not guaranteed, but they can still be clinched so long as Trump has the will to waive more sanctions without a ceasefire first.
Putin’s top aide Yury Ushakov confirmed after Steve Witkoff’s latest meeting with Putin that “Other large-scale joint economic projects, which offer significant prospects for bilateral cooperation, were also discussed in detail; some of them are now nearing the implementation stage.” This followed Putin courting the return of US investment to Russia’s resource sector in early 2025 and Kirill Dmitriev recently confirming talks on nuclear-powered data centers.
Here are the five most promising joint opportunities:
* Oil & Gas
US stakes in Russia’s energy infrastructure and companies can incentivize it to get the EU to return Russia’s frozen assets through the sequence proposed here. They’d also serve as security guarantees against Ukrainian attacks on pain of the US cutting Ukraine off if it attacks assets in which Trump personally obtained stakes for the US. A separate injection of US capital into Russia’s energy industry as the new “deal of the century” can reshape the global industry by reducing dependence on the Gulf.
* Critical Minerals
Russia’s globally significant critical mineral deposits remain woefully underexploited, but with US stakes in this industry through the abovementioned sequence and separate capital injections, it can be brought online relatively quickly for accelerating the US’ diversification from dependence on China. Russia’s sparsely populated Siberia and Far East regions can also host pollution-heavy processing facilities far away from populated and agricultural areas. This makes joint investments extremely attractive.
* Data Centers
Per Dmitriev’s recent disclosure, talks on nuclear-powered data centers represent another promising opportunity for both countries. Russia’s globally significant critical mineral deposits could be processed in the country as proposed above and then immediately put to use within these facilities. That can greatly lower the cost of constructing them, while maintaining them would be similarly cost-effective through nuclear-powered means. This could lay the basis for global nuclear and tech partnerships too.
* Power Plants
Critical mineral processing facilities and data centers can also be powered by hydroelectric dams, not just nuclear power plants, and the US can obtain stakes in all four – the facilities, centers, dams, and plants – through the return of Russia’s frozen EU assets as proposed. Separate capital injections can help fund the costs of construction in exchange for greater stakes, and any excess electricity produced through new dams and nuclear power plants can be exported to Russia’s neighbors, both in Asia and Europe.
* International Logistics
The mineral deposits in which the US recently invested in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan can reach jointly owned processing facilities in Russia through the Trans-Siberian Railway and then onward to the global market. The same goes for the US’ related investments in similarly landlocked Mongolia. As the gatekeepers of the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage through their control of the Bering Strait, separate Arctic logistical cooperation is possible too, as is cooperation on nuclear-powered icebreakers.
“Trump Is More Serious Than Ever About Cutting Deals With Putin” in order for their long-negotiated resource-centric strategic partnership, the essence of which is described in the preceding hyperlinked analyses, to irreversibly shift the balance of the Sino-US systemic rivalry in the US’ favor. Although Putin might agree to some trade-offs in Ukraine as the quid pro quo for these deals, it’s not guaranteed, but they can still be clinched so long as Trump has the will to waive more sanctions without a ceasefire first.
END
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES//AI
COVID VACCINE INJURY REPORTS; DR MARK CRISPIN MILLER
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS/ENERGY COMMENTARIES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
BRAZIL
Bolsonaro, Lula Clash In Fiery Final Debate As Brazil’s Runoff Goes Down To The Wire
Saturday, Oct 24, 2026 – 07:35 AM
Right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s lead over socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has narrowed to a statistical tie ahead of Brazil’s presidential runoff on Sunday, raising the stakes even higher during Friday evening’s final televised debate.
Bolsonaro finished ahead in the first round earlier this month, but his path to victory remains uncertain in the polls, even as he appears to be a lock on Polymarket.
A Bolsonaro win would shift South America’s largest GDP to the right, deliver a major strategic setback to Latin American socialists and potentially position Brazil as the anchor of a new conservative era across the continent.
Last night, Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, blasted Lula over the cost-of-living crisis, high interest rates, big government spending, and criticized a tax reform approved by the socialist president that has become a tax burden on the working poor.
X user Jesse Livermore summarized one of the exchanges between the two candidates:
Here’s an English-dubbed clip of the Bolsonaro x Lula debate where you can see the setup in practice.
They let the format slip a bit in this specific clip when they let Lula go back to Bolsonaro with the “Why did you (your father) make the central bank independent?” question.
But the clip is still sufficient to convey the format. Bolsonaro accepted the question because he had a good answer “To prevent reckless spenders like you from turning Brazil into Argentina.” (Rest of his answer wasn’t very impressive, though, since he’s basically copying the PT’s empty populist promises).
In another exchange, Bolsonaro said, “Lula doesn’t even remember the last time he went grocery shopping because he lives in a luxury palace now.”
Both traded barbs. Lula said Bolsonaro “is like students studying for college entrance exams. They can memorize things, but they can’t learn.” He also said, “In the gated community where Bolsonaro lives, people don’t go hungry.”
In the final minutes of the debate, Lula questioned Bolsonaro’s alleged links to jailed Banco Master banker Daniel Vorcaro, while Bolsonaro raised accusations involving Lula’s son and a pension-fraud investigation.
Ahead of the final debate, our note titled “Photo Finish: Brazil Votes With Polls Tied, Bettors All-In On Bolsonaro, And The Market Priced For A Lula Shock“ detailed final polling data showing a statistical tie between the two candidates. But what could prove awkward for the pollsters is that Polymarket bettors heavily favor a Bolsonaro victory, giving him an 80% chance of winning, while Lula sits around 20% as of early Saturday.
We also cited Goldman’s chief LatAm economist Alberto Ramos, who supplied clients with a poll-of-polls, which shows the Bolsonaro line rolling over in the final stretch (chart source GS GIR):
“The race has tightened considerably. Polls immediately after the first round gave conservative Bolsonaro a 4–5-point lead over left-wing incumbent President Lula in the October 25 runoff. His lead has since narrowed to 0–2.5 points, with one outlier, Vox, showing Lula slightly ahead. Prediction markets still favor Bolsonaro, but the odds are less lopsided than immediately after the first round.”
Goldman’s average still puts Bolsonaro ahead 51-49, a 2-point lead right on the edge of most surveys’ margin of error. Note how many of the arrows point down: in almost every poll, the senator’s lead is smaller than it was in that pollster’s previous survey.
Pollsters are underestimating the likelihood of a Bolsonaro victory. In our Friday report, we noted that the market has partially priced in a Bolsonaro victory. A surprise Lula win presents a sharper downside risk for Brazilian assets.
One of the biggest stories has not been the rally in Brazilian assets ahead of the first-round election but, in fact, “the panic in the volatility space following the reset after the first round,” according to Goldman’s Paris-based EM equity salesman Alexandre Jobert.
Sunday Night: What To Watch
- The count: polls close at 4 pm ET on Sunday. Goldman expects about 50% of votes tallied within two hours and 90% within three. Watch the early numbers carefully: “early vote counts have tended to favor the conservative candidates,” as they did on Oct 4, so a Flávio lead early in the night means less than it appears.
- The margin: per Ramos, a winning margin under 1pt raises the risk of a contested election “particularly within a highly polarized environment” and would look like a weak mandate. A margin over 4pts gives the winner a clear mandate.
- The speeches: the tone of the concession and victory speeches will show whether the transition goes smoothly. Given this country’s recent history, don’t count on it.
- First price: CME BRL futures should open around 10 pm London on Sunday and give the first read on the result. Note that the UK clock change this weekend moves the B3 open to 12 pm London on Monday. The local futures exchange also has a 6% circuit breaker, “which is within the realms of views on the type of move we could see on a Lula win” (though B3 can adjust it intraday, as it did for DIs after the first round).
Much more in Goldman’s “Brazil Election Q&A” and the “BRL FX: Higher Stakes Into Round 2 and Thereafter” note, both available to pro subs.
END
BRAZIL
Lula Runoff Shock Sparks Brazilian Market Carnage: Stocks Collapse, Real Plunges As ‘Bolsonaro Trade’ Implodes
Monday, Oct 26, 2026 – 09:56 AM
Summary:
- Ibovespa Stock Index Plunges 20%, Triggers Circuit Breaker
- Real Crashes 11% To 5.58/USD
- Brazil Markets Crater After Socialist Lula’s Shock Victory; Bolsonaro Seeks To Annul Runoff
Market Shock
Brazilian assets crashed after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s surprise runoff victory over Flávio Bolsonaro unraveled bullish bets across local stocks and the real. A controversial last-minute, two-hour voting extension has prompted Bolsonaro to call for the runoff to be annulled.
“Needless to say, the outcome caught most of the market by surprise, with President Lula completing a major turnaround and winning the runoff,” UBS analyst Daniel Pompiani told clients earlier this morning.
The real plunged as much as 11% this morning, while longer-dated interest-rate swap contracts surged almost 300 basis points after hitting trading limits.
Exchange operator B3 widened trading limits for currency, interest-rate, and stock futures for Monday’s regular session to accommodate the volatility. Brazilian stocks last triggered a circuit breaker during the COVID crash in early 2020.
Ibovespa stock-index futures plunged 20%, prompting warnings from trading desks and triggering a circuit-breaker halt.
Traders had positioned for a Bolsonaro victory after his first-round lead sparked a rally and attracted billions in foreign inflows. After Lula’s victory, JPMorgan analysts downgraded their outlook on Brazil’s currency and rates from overweight to market-weight.
“The post-election message of the market is clear: There is no vacation time for the next four years, and the country will need to address the fiscal issue,” said Peter Varga, a senior portfolio manager at Erste Asset Management.
UBS’ Pompiani asked:
Will the BCB intervene? It is very likely, but probably not right at the open. The BCB usually monitors flows and overall market conditions before stepping in, as its focus tends to be on market dysfunction rather than defending a specific level. The first move should be violent, but price discovery will be difficult. With liquidity thin and positioning caught offside, headline levels may matter less than where the market can actually clear risk.
Société Générale analyst Brendan McKenna told clients, “Don’t call it a comeback, Lula’s been here for years.”
McKenna provided clients with five key points:
1. Lula’s victory in the runoff of Brazil’s presidential election marks an abrupt end to Latin America’s conservative wave and a shift away from the right side of the political spectrum. What began as anti-incumbent sentiment driven by rising crime, corruption, and inflation ultimately culminated in strong support for Lula and his policy platform. While most Latin American countries will continue to be governed by conservative administrations, the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, will be led by left-leaning governments. The Latin America election calendar is lighter in 2027 highlighted by general elections in Argentina toward the end of next year. We cannot help but wonder if Brazil pushing back on the right is an indication for a return to Peronism in Argentina or the start of the broader Latam pendulum swinging back left
2. Regardless of whether Brazil’s election marks an inflection point in regional politics, financial market contagion from Lula’s re-election across Latin America should be limited. Brazil’s financial markets are likely to come under significant pressure at the open; however, with most Latin American elections already behind us and many countries having secured more market-friendly policy platforms, we believe any Lula-induced selloff is likely to remain largely idiosyncratic to Brazil rather than trigger region-wide contagion. Argentina may be more vulnerable to spillover effects as regional markets have already demonstrated unease regarding President Milei potentially not being re-elected in 2027. Brazil rejecting a platform similar in style to President Milei could prompt more concern across Argentine local markets, but the extent of any spillover from Brazil’s election should be contained to Buenos Aires.
3. Fiscal discipline is likely to prove more elusive under another Lula administration, and we see little reason to expect a meaningful fiscal adjustment during a fourth Lula term. That said, Lula will face a right-leaning Congress that could constrain his ability to further loosen fiscal policy. A bond market and currency that remain under pressure could also force the government to adopt a more pragmatic fiscal stance to reassure investors, similar to Lula’s efforts to pursue spending restraint after market pressures intensified in late 2024. Should Vice President Alckmin assume a more prominent role in Economy Ministry, and if Finance Minister Durigan continues to emphasize fiscal responsibility, financial markets may stabilize relatively quickly. However, achieving a peak in government debt ratios is likely to remain challenging.
4. Brazil’s Local market selling is likely to be severe, but we will primarily be looking for opportunities to buy BRL. A Lula victory is likely to embed a political risk premium in the currency; however, BRL’s underlying fundamentals remain strong. The real continues to benefit from elevated real interest rate differentials, a manageable current account position, and a central bank with adequate foreign exchange reserves and a demonstrated willingness to deploy them to support financial market and FX stability. In addition, BRL may benefit from the presence of a conservative-leaning Congress that could constrain any efforts by President Lula to further loosen fiscal policy. Should Vice President Alckmin be appointed economy minister and Finance Minister Durigan remain in his role, markets may also take comfort in the continuity and elevated prominence of a technocratic economic team. Our range to watch is BRL5.70-BRL5.75. We would view USDBRL in that range as more interesting to engage in tactical trades to express potentially oversold conditions.
5. Rates may be a little trickier, as the upcoming BRL selloff is likely to push near-term inflation expectations higher, on top of an IPCA trajectory that was already expected to firm through the end of this year and into early 2027. SG Economics now forecasts a slower and shallower Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) easing cycle, which could keep the Selic rate above current market expectations through the end of 2028. As a result, the popular pre-runoff receiver trade may face headwinds for a more extended period, particularly relative to FX markets. Rates pressure should be felt across the curve, but the longer end of the curve should feel pressured most acutely given renewed fiscal concerns associated with the Lula administration. For now, our focus remains on identifying attractive BRL entry points rather than expressing bullish views through rates markets.
Brazil Markets Crater After Socialist Lula’s Shock Victory; Bolsonaro Seeks To Annul Runoff
Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro said overnight that he would seek to annul the presidential runoff, challenging a last-minute, two-hour voting extension granted at the request of socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s campaign. The order came from Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin, Lula’s former personal attorney, whom the president appointed to the high court. Lula later won the runoff after Bolsonaro finished first in the first round earlier this month, setting the stage for a legal challenge to the court’s questionable intervention.
According to the electoral court, Lula was re-elected for a record fourth term on Sunday, taking 51.76% of the vote to Bolsonaro’s 48.24% in a surprise outcome.
Via Bloomberg:
Bolsonaro said, “It is impossible to recognize the election outcome given the circumstances in which all of this took place,” adding, “We will pursue legal action and seek to have the election annulled.”
Trump:
Greta received her talking points:
The questionable voting-extension ruling came minutes after polling stations nationwide were scheduled to close at 5 p.m. local time. Zanin later clarified that it applied only to polling stations that remained open.
UBS analyst Justin Wensek told clients, “Flavio’s annulment request is unlikely to hold water given his campaign also asked for additional time in specific states that were impacted by adverse weather.”
The focus now shifts to Brazilian markets, where the “Bolsonaro trade” has reversed and shares of companies across the banking, steel and metals, and oil and gas sectors have plunged:
BANKS, FINANCIAL FIRMS
US-listed shares in lenders fall: Banco Bradesco -27%, Itau Unibanco Holding -28%, NU Holdings -22%, Inter & Co. -32%, Banco Santander (Brasil) -11%
Among other financial firms: PagSeguro Digital -28%, StoneCo -31%, PicS -27%
STEEL, METAL & MINING
Among movers: Companhia Siderurgica Nacional -13%, Vale -7.7%, Gerdau S.A. -14% AERO,
OIL & GAS AND OTHER SECTORS
Among other movers: XP Inc. -39%, Ambev -19%, Embraer -2.6%, MercadoLibre -2.6%, Telefonica Brasil -16%, Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais -15%, Companhia Paranaense de Energia -17%, Petroleo Brasileiro -19%, Ultrapar Participacoes -18%, Cia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo (SABESP) -22%, TIM S.A. -17%
iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) cratered 27% in premarket trading on the surprise Lula win.
UBS analyst Wensek added more color on the significant repricing of Brazilian assets as the market readjusts to four more years of socialist Lula:
Brazil’s fiscal outlook again takes center stage, as debt/GDP trajectory resumes its ominous path. The desk expects a significant re-pricing of Brazilian assets on Monday, as the market adjusts to another four years of Lula, with USDBRL potentially at 5.3 Monday.
Note that FX didn’t react that much in the first round; it was more about rates and equities. EM strategist Roque Montero thinks USDBRL could drift to 5.5-5.6 by end-2026 given December negative seasonality.
In rates, Roque expects a 100-150bp move higher. Equities could correct by 10-15% based on latest EWZ reaction. Among stocks, watch for selling pressure/rotation out of SOEs, high beta and rate sensitive names, into defensive, USD leveraged, cash flow generative names. If there is a silver lining, Lula will have to build a coalition to pass key policy initiatives through a more right-leaning Senate and Lower House.
Beyond Bolsonaro’s possible court battle to challenge the results, Brazil now faces a financial reckoning as public debt has climbed to 83% of GDP from 71.7% when Lula and the socialists took office in January 2023, leaving traders to digest the continued fiscal deterioration.
ING analysts see a 5%-7% slide in real terms and double-digit stock losses today. The repricing is already underway offshore: Brazil’s dollar bonds were among the worst performers in emerging markets, with yields on notes due in 2037 jumping 19 basis points to 6.44%.
What Goldman analysts expect from here:
Rates and equities will see the most damage. In rates, where we settle will depend on damage control on fiscal. There are people close to the president advocating for fiscal consolidation given its impact on financing cost. Market will closely monitor Finance Minister announcement, and the details of fiscal consolidation. Adjustments involving Constitutional spending cap/ fiscal target would be well received, and trim on specific social programs without longer term commitment likely won’t calm market. If we see credible fiscal reform, BCB can continue its easing path given the still-very-high real rate, so front-end-to-belly receiver could be attractive again after the correction. Equity market will likely price out optimism around structural reforms to improve SOE/ business environment.
USDBRL – expect to settle in new range of 5.4-5.8. This will limit BCB’s ability to accelerate its pace of easing.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad sees a buying opportunity emerging from the selloff.
END
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING\
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.191 DOWN 0.0009
USA/ YEN 157.49 UP 0.728 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!! BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE. URGES PENSION AND INSUANCE FUNDS TO BUY JAPANESE BONDS//
YEN CARRY TRADERS MURDERED
GBP/USA1.3346 DOWN 0.0011 OR 11 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4015 UP 0.0001 //CDN DOLLAR DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 7.04 PTS OR 0.10%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 1116.64 PTS OR 0.51%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.41%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 116.64 PTS OR 0.51%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.04 PTS OR 0.10%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.41%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 563.31 PTS OR 0.60%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4017.50
silver:$54.93
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 49.76 UP 2 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 80.82 ROUBLE// UP 0 ROUBLE AND 08 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.3413 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.7352 DOWN 7BASIS PTS
FRENCH OAT 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.967 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS.
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.8360 DOWN 1BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.579DOWN 1BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early MONDAY MORNING: 101.70 UP 0 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.877% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.794% DOWN 0 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.824 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.026 DOWN 2 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 4.544 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.3652 UP 2 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1191 DOWN 0.0009 OR 9 basis points
USA/Japan: 157.43 UP 0.728 OR YEN IS DOWN 73 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.3336 DOWN 11 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.7352 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS.
FRANCE 10 YR: 4.967 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
CANADIAN DOLLAR DOWN 54 BASIS PTS TO 1.4015
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The USA/Yuan CNY 6.6662 ON SHORE ..UP
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.6646
TURKISH LIRA: 49.76 UP 2 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 in basis points from FRIDAY at 4.998% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.330 UP 1 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.656 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM $3996.50
SILVER AT 10;00: $53.42
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest ratesMONDAY
DAY CLOSING TIME/ 12:00 AM///
London: CLOSED UP 78.97 PTS OR 0.72%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 128.17 PTS OR 0.17%
FRANCE: UP 46.64 OR 0.81 PTS
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 43.50 PTS OR 0.21%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 627.95 PTS OR 1.29 %
WTI Oil price 101.28
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 101.70 OR UP 6 PTS
Brent Oil: 115.79 10:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 80.82/// ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 17/ 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.797 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.523 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM//
Euro vs USA 1.1183 DOWN 0.0018 OR 18 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3348 DOWN 0.0009 OR 9 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 5.3517 UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.7448U DOWN 11 IN BASIS PTS.
FRENCH 10 YR BOND: 4.9070 % DOWN 12 BASIS PTS
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.804 % DOWN 0 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.821 UP 1 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 157.45 UP .696 OR YEN DOWN 70 BASIS PTS//GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM 160.00/ EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4017 UP 0.0017 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 17 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 102.33
Brent OIL: 116.13
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 4.988%
USA 30 yr bond yield: DOWN 2 PTS to 5.306%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.718 UP 4 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.835 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.572 UP 0 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 101.82 UP 12 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 49.76 UP 2 BASIS PTS GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 81.62 DOWN 0 AND 69/100 roubles //
GOLD $4,012.30 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 53.991 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 145.83 POINTS OR 0.28%
NASDAQ 100 UP 1.109PTS OR 0.45%
VOLATILITY INDEX 198.33 DOWN 1.21PTS OR0.33 %
GLD: $ 367.82 UP 1.21 PTS OR 0.33%
SLV/ 48.66 PTS DOWN 0.06 OR 0.12%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 155.98PTS OR 0.44%
END
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
The Very Thing Creating The Equity Problem Is Solving The Rates Problem”: A Week When Zuck’s CapEx Wall Turned An Oil Spike Into A Bond Rally
WRAP UP
Stocks gain as AI bounces ahead of key macro risk events – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Monday, Oct 26, 2026 – 04:22 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries flatten, Crude down, Dollar up, Gold up
- REAR VIEW: US President Trump said it’s “decision time” on Iran: “finish it off” or make a deal; US forces in the Middle East reportedly ready to launch major strikes on Iran within 96 hours of Trump’s approval; META plans up to $95bln stock offering; Senior Iranian official reportedly said Iran won’t discuss its nuclear programme until the US meets its demands; Houthis say they fired dozens of ballistic missiles at Saudi airports, military bases and energy sites on Saturday; Anthropic’s S-1 shows over USD 280bln in SPCX and AVGO compute commitments; US and Canada reportedly working on a deal to ease US tariffs on Canadian steel and auto imports; Moody’s keeps France at Aa3 with a negative outlook.
- COMING UP: Data: Chinese Industrial Profits (Sep), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Durable Goods (Sep), Richmond Fed Index (Oct), Dallas Fed Index (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDPNow. Events: Israeli legislative election for the Knesset. Supply: Australia, UK, Italy, Germany, US. Earnings: SoFi, Coca-Cola, UPS, Corning, PayPal, Boeing, S&P Global, Robinhood, Seagate, Visa, SK Hynix, HSBC, Novartis.
- WEEK IN FOCUS: Click here for the full report.
- WEEKLY US EARNINGS ESTIMATES: Tech earnings ramp up with GOOGL, MSFT, INTC, and AMZN due. Click here for the full report.
More Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports.
2. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time live audio squawk for 7 days.
3. Check out Newsquawk’s US Midterm Election dashboard.
MARKET WRAP
US equities started the week on the front foot, with semiconductors leading a tentative recovery from the recent AI-driven sell-off. Neoclouds managed to recover and gain despite initial pressure after Elon Musk said debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. Despite the AI rally, AI funding remained in focus. Meta (META -1.9%) launched a USD 35bln equity offering with a further USD 60bln ATM sale planned to fund its infrastructure build-out, and Anthropic’s S-1 revealed over USD 280bln in compute commitments with SpaceX and Broadcom. The S-1 was viewed as positive, on a cash and balance sheet basis as of June 30th 2026; Total assets were USD 147.358bln vs total liabilities of USD 117.467bln.
Elsewhere, Brazilian ADRs were hit hard after Lula unexpectedly won a fourth term, which left the BRL the standout mover in FX, sinking alongside bonds on renewed fiscal concerns.
Crude prices were lower in choppy trade. Benchmarks came under pressure after Saudi Arabia said a Mecca Agreement delegation visit to Tehran was part of efforts to de-escalate tensions. This outweighed Trump saying it was “decision time” on Iran, reports that US forces are ready to strike within 96 hours of his approval, and Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline.
The Treasury curve flattened, with short-end yields rising while the long end edged lower despite the risk-on tone in equities. The move came as markets positioned ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC, where a hold is widely expected, leaving focus on the vote split and whether Warsh leans hawkish to offset the recent easing in financial conditions. The 2yr auction tailed, extending a run of soft demand. The Dollar edged higher in light newsflow ahead of a busy week of central bank meetings, the UK Budget, US PCE and big tech earnings.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLED 1+ TICKS LOWER AT 106-03+
Curve flattens as markets await FOMC, big tech earnings, and PCE. At settlement, 2-year +3.2bps at 4.718%, 3-year +2.9bps at 4.782%, 5-year +1.6bps at 4.828%, 7-year +0.6bps at 4.903%, 10-year -0.9bps at 4.990%, 20-year -2.4bps at 5.351%, 30-year -2.4bps at 5.303%
THE DAY: The Treasury curve flattened as 2-, 3- , 5-, and 7yr yields ticked higher while the rest of the curve was flat to lower. US data was absent to start the week, with the Fed and big tech earnings the main catalysts ahead of PCE data on Thursday. A hold is widely expected at the FOMC’s Wednesday meeting, shifting the focus onto the vote split and any hawkish lean within the statement or Warsh’s press conference to offset the recent easing in financial conditions following the AI debt scare.
Stocks rallied to start the week, as semiconductors and neoclouds began a potential recovery from recent weakness, although long-end yields still shifted lower despite the risk-on backdrop.
In the US afternoon, the 2yr note auction tailed by 0.3bps, again signalling recent weakening demand relative to the six-auction average stop-through of 0.2bps. Dealers’ proportion of the bid was little changed at 13.0%, as Directs picked up the slack from weaker Indirect demand.
Supply
- US Treasury sold USD 69bln of 2-year notes; tailed by 0.3bps.
- US Treasury announced a preliminary liquidity support buyback of up to USD 6bln in nominal coupon securities with maturities of 20-30 years, scheduled for October 27th, with settlement on October 28th.
- US sold 3-month bills at a high rate of 4.050%, B/C 3.07x; sold 6-month bills at a high rate of 4.210%, B/C 2.63x.
STIRs/OPERATIONS
- Fed Hike Pricing via CME FedWatch: Oct 3.2bps (prev. 2.4bps), Dec 22.4bps (prev. 21.8bps)
- EFFR at 3.88% (prev. 3.88%), volumes at USD 109bln (prev. USD 119bln) on October 23rd
- SOFR at 3.92% (prev. 3.90%), volumes at USD 3.065tln (prev. USD 2.945tln) on October 23rd
- NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 0.200bln (prev. USD 0.200bln) across 1 counterparties (prev. 1) on October 26th
CRUDE
WTI (Z6) SETTLED USD 1.51 LOWER AT 101.76/BBL; BRENT (F7) SETTLES USD 0.96 LOWER AT 110.74/BBL
The crude complex was lower, albeit in choppy trade. Fresh catalysts were light on Monday, with plenty of macro risk events due later in the week, although focus remains firmly on geopolitics. Over the weekend, US President Trump said it was “getting to be decision time” on whether to strike a deal with Tehran or resume attacks. CNN reported on Monday that US forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch major strikes against Iran within 96 hours of Trump’s approval. Nonetheless, benchmarks came under pressure after the Saudi Foreign Ministry said a visit to Tehran by representatives of the Mecca Agreement countries is part of efforts to de-escalate tensions between the parties to the crisis. This came despite the Houthis saying overnight that they had targeted pumping stations on Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude pipeline with drones and attacked King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, although Saudi Arabia did not immediately confirm the attacks. A senior Iranian official reportedly said talks in Tehran with Mecca Pact members exclude the nuclear issue; Iran will not discuss its nuclear programme until the US meets Tehran’s demands. In the US, crude stocks in the SPR fell to 282.6mln bbls last week, the lowest level since 1982. For the record, WTI traded between USD 100.33-103.13/bbl and Brent between USD 109.22-112.20/bbl.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +0.71% at 7,678, NDX +1.09% at 20,273, DJI +0.29% at 52,364, RUT +0.40% at 2,787
SECTORS: Communication services -1.42%, Consumer staples -0.13%, Utilities flat, Health flat, Materials +0.15%, Financials +0.22%, Energy +0.5%, Real estate +0.53%, Consumer discretionary +1.11%, Industrials +1.4%, Technology +1.5%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.74% at 6,113, Dax 40 +1.03% at 25,441, FTSE 100 +0.72% at 10,767, CAC 40 +0.83% at 7,847, FTSE MIB +1.29% at 49,187, IBEX 35 +0.23% at 19,033, PSI -0.75% at 9,176, SMI +0.53% at 14,539, AEX +0.14% at 1,133
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Meta Platforms (META): Plans an up to USD 95bln stock offering to fuel its huge AI infrastructure spending.
- Verizon (VZ): EPS and postpaid phone net adds beat, with a strong FY profit view; revenue missed.
- EQT (EQT): Agrees to acquire Range Resources (RRC) in an all-stock deal, valuing the combined company at over USD 50bln.
- Fair Isaac (FICO): Downgraded at Wells Fargo.
- Brazil ADRs: Hit hard after left-wing Lula unexpectedly won the election, notably Braskem (BAK), Itaú Unibanco (ITUB), Petrobras (PBR) and Vale (VALE).
- Neoclouds: Elon Musk said in a post on X that “200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death”; stocks such as CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius (NBIS) and Iren (IREN) are seeing pressure.
- Tesla (TSLA): Upgraded to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Equal Weight’ at Barclays, with a PT of USD 450 (prev. 370); the firm cites Tesla’s merger opportunity with SpaceX (SPCX), a stronger core business outlook and signs of a Robotaxi inflection for the upgrade.
- Surgery Partners (SGRY): Bon Secours Mercy Health is nearing a USD 6bln takeover, the FT reports; the take-private deal could be announced as soon as Monday and would value the company at USD 20/shr.
- SpaceX (SPCX): Secured USD 40bln in debt financing to purchase GPUs scheduled for delivery in Q1 and Q2 2027.
- Microsoft (MSFT): To offer buyouts to 60k workers in its latest cost-cutting move, Bloomberg reports.
- Anthropic: Its S-1 showed it has agreed to spend up to USD 120.5bln under its SpaceXAI arrangements and about USD 161.2bln on Broadcom TPU leases, and estimated that 5-7% of its revenue in the first nine months of 2026 came from customers breaching its usage policy or commercial terms. The filing also showed 48% of H1 revenue was billed through Amazon, Google and Microsoft marketplaces, and showed a USD 10.8bln contracted backlog.
- Instacart (CART): DoorDash (DASH) is in advanced talks to acquire the company, the WSJ reports.
FX
DXY saw slight strength on Monday, although currency-specific newsflow was light as participants await the week’s scheduled risk events, of which there are many; highlights include the FOMC, BoJ and ECB meetings, the UK Budget, US PCE and three Mag-7 earnings reports. As for Monday, there was no US data or Fed speak, so focus was on geopolitics and AI sentiment. ING writes that the balance of risks suggests the dollar can probably hold onto its gains, and that, barring some clearly underwhelming Q3 results from the likes of Alphabet and Microsoft, higher energy prices and a hawkish Fed can keep the dollar supported this week.
G10 FX saw losses to varying degrees, with the Yen the G10 underperformer, while the global FX laggard was the Brazilian Real, which plummeted following Lula’s unexpected victory for a fourth term as President. Given this, there was broad-based selling in Brazilian assets, which saw USD/BRL rise to a high of c. 5.60 from c. 5.00. Following the result, MS sees USD/BRL holding above 5.60, potentially reaching 6.00 if fiscal concerns worsen, alongside 300-400bps of pressure on interbank rates.
The EUR initially fared well after France was spared a downgrade by Moody’s on Friday, while on the data front, the German Ifo survey was mixed. However, the single currency faded, with EUR/USD trading between 1.1173 and 1.1227.
USA DATA RELEASES
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
Could France’s Crisis Happen In America?
Saturday, Oct 24, 2026 – 10:05 AM
Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via The Daily Signal,
This is a lightly edited transcript of an Oct. 19 segment of the “Victor Davis Hanson: In His Own Words” podcast.
In the news right now, it’s rioting in France, rioting in Belgium, rioting in Italy, rioting in Albania, with other countries experiencing threats to riot. Who are these people? Well, they’re supposedly students that are angry that their classrooms or their education is not competitive or it’s subpar.
They’re socialists that are driving the unrest, but especially they’re immigrants. And let me just say at the outset, it’s very common among the Left in the West, in Europe, Canada, the United States to immediately bash anybody who criticizes immigration. But the Left is the party that created this problem because most people who are centrist or independents or on the right approve of immigration with a qualifier.
It has to be legal. It has to be diverse from all over the world, not just from Africa or south of the border or Asia. It has to be measured so, in some fashion, the people coming in are not a million, 2 million, 3 million a year. They have to be in the thousands that can be acculturated, assimilated and integrated, because if they’re not, then what’s over there comes here – and not what over there comes here and becomes West; it brings that culture into the West.
Now, another thing to remember is it has to be meritocratic. Everybody wants to come to the West, and to the degree that Western nations say to those in Africa and Asia and the Western Hemisphere, “We can’t accommodate everybody. We have a few for refugees. We have a few from family reconciliation. We have a few from people that have outstanding talent, but we have to have the majority speaking the native language, willing to acculturate, and most importantly, have skills and be self-supporting so they don’t burden the social welfare system at the expense of U.S. citizens.”
That’s not happening in Europe right now.
It’s not happening. The historic Limoges Town Hall in Limoges, France, is burned down. It’s toppling. If you go to Marseille, you often see the historic statue of Marianne. She’s the symbol of the French Republic, a statue.
It’s been defaced and is threatened with destruction. At Lyon, they destroyed a 175-year-old town hall. One of the most impressive Gothic churches in all of Europe is the Duomo, the Duomo in Milan, and they’re right outside burning and rioting, right outside.
So, what is driving this coalition? Who’s doing this?
Why are they angry? Well, we have a very strange phenomenon happening. In Western countries over the last two decades especially, about 15 percent, up to 20 percent, are first-generation immigrants. I mean, they are first-generation, and they do not come from European countries. Some of them come from one country to another, but most of them are from the Middle East, Asia, Africa, and the Western Hemisphere.
And what’s happening is they come at a time where the West is in crisis, and it does not believe that its culture and civilization is superior to the alternative. So, there’s no state effort to assimilate, to acculturate, to integrate, to teach people about Greece and Rome, or the medieval period, or the Renaissance, or the Enlightenment, or the Founding Fathers here in the United States.
Or whether you’re left or right, Rousseau or Voltaire, or Shakespeare or Plato, none of that.
In fact, it’s just the opposite: that people are coming because they have rejected with their feet their own culture, and yet they are praised as the other, as if their cultures, which are failed and which have driven them out, are somehow superior.
And therefore, they can retain their own cultural identity within a Western nation, with the caveat that they also will be protected by Western security, given Western freedom and have Western economic prosperity that they didn’t have in their own country.
This is not sustainable. It’s not sustainable. This new alliance between socialist immigrants and Islamists. We’re seeing it in the United States as well. We see all of these candidates that are running for Congress, for state office, for Senate, mayor of New York, and they have nothing good to say about the United States.
They have a lot of good to say about the countries that are illiberal, from which they came and to which they under no circumstances want to go back.
The iconic moment in the United States was the protesters in Los Angeles who were here illegally, and they were waving the flag of the country under no circumstances they wanted to go back to and burning the flag of the country under every circumstance they wanted to stay in.
Now, there are geostrategic implications of this. We are becoming estranged from Europe. Europe is becoming estranged from Europe. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Italy just unleashed a diatribe against the French president, Emmanuel Macron. And she said he was responsible for opening the borders of Europe and beginning this suicide pact in which European countries now have 15 percent to 20 percent to 25 percent first-generation immigrants.
But the key number is first- and second-generation, because unlike past immigration waves, the second generation, those born to immigrants, are not acculturating very well. And that’s the key indicator.
In Canada, it’s 45 percent first- and second-generation. In Australia, it’s nearly 50 percent. And across Europe, it averages about 25 percent to 35 percent of the entire population is either first- or second-generation immigrants.
And as we see now, it’s an unsustainable proposition because they do not want to accept the culture in which they fled to. They want its benefits, but they want to take it over culturally or socially or politically. And when I say it’s not sustainable, the welfare cost of European nations, especially Northern and Western European nations, is about 40 percent of their entire budget.
It’s over 30 percent in many countries of their total GDP, and that is money that is given to people who are not able to support themselves in this socialist utopia.
But it’s even worse than that: it’s not sustainable for the taxpayer, but it fuels the resentment of the taxpayer. In other words, it’s this strange phenomenon of human nature.
The more you give someone, the more they interpret that as weakness to be exploited and not magnanimity to be reciprocated in kindness. That’s part of the root of the entire problem. But, as I said, it has geostrategic problems because Europe’s energy program is in shambles. The UK and Germany have wrecked their economies by warring on nuclear power and fossil fuels. Wind and solar are not compatible with a dynamic economy as the primary sources of energy. Energy costs in Germany or the UK are double, triple, and, in some parts, quadruple ours.
Fertility is 1.35 across Europe on average. Only Donald Trump’s anger and bombast and barrages of rhetoric have allowed Europe to spend 2 percent, a measly 2 percent of GDP, on defense. But they have promised to go to 5 percent. It will be impossible for them to go to 5 percent with the energy policies they have, with the fertility rates that are so low, with an indigenous population that is aging and shrinking, and borders that are not secure, and immigrants who see them as decadent and weak and ripe for exploitation. You can see the geostrategic ramifications in the war in Ukraine and Iran.
Why did the UK let out terrorists who were scouting a Royal Air Force NATO base where we had 11 B-1s? And they were essentially conducting a milk run or a dry run on how to destroy three and a half billion dollars of U.S. bombers. And what did the UK do? They let these people out on bail.
Why is it that in so many Northern European and Western European countries, when immigrants commit crimes, they do not face the same level of punishment as indigenous people? In the UK as well, why is it that these countries would not allow the United States to use their airspaces or their bases when we wanted to hit the nuclear facilities in Iran?
And the answer to all these questions is they are terrified, not just that they have 15 percent to 25 percent immigrant populations, not just that they have 30 percent to 40 percent first- and second-generation immigrant populations, but because they have immigrant populations that don’t like them and don’t want to integrate and feel that Islam or the autocratic method is superior.
And I’ll end on two notes.
The West is unique. It’s so self-critical, and it’s so hospitable to immigrants that no other country follows this pattern. China has 1.4 billion. They don’t let people into their country. Japan is 99 percent indigenous population. Russia would not hear of this. Some of our closest allies, South Korea or Taiwan, they don’t do this.
We in the West are unique, and yet we suffer the wage of being unkind to immigrants from the very countries that would never allow it, for the very reasons that they’re seeing what’s happening in the West.
Second and last, we’re not far behind. We have 16 percent to 17 percent first-generation, and we have about 25 percent first- and second-generation.
About 70 million people have either not been born in the United States or their parents weren’t born here. And we are not integrating and assimilating them and using the melting pot, partly because of the Left’s cultural revolution that they’ve taken over in institutions, and they are ashamed of their very culture, and they’ve used the word “cultural appropriation,” et cetera, and partly because the immigrants themselves refuse to give up their religion.
I’m not talking about their religion in the sense of private worship, but I’m talking about their religion as a state religion imposed on entire communities. That is a goal of many of the immigrants.
It’s not going to end well in the United States unless we take a look at what’s happening right now in Europe, and there’s no better time to take a look than before the midterm elections that are upon us in less than three weeks.
END
AI
“Glass Totally And Completely Empty”: McElligott Warns AI Trade Is Now “Toxic Pick Your Poison” As 5-Sigma Stop-Outs Rip Across Wall Street
Nomura cross-asset strategist Charlie McElligott is warning that the crowded AI trade has flipped from a favorable “heads I win, tails you lose” setup into a toxic “pick your poison” / “glass totally and completely empty” lose-lose situation, amid extreme positioning pain and multi-sigma stop-outs.
zerohedge.com
On Thursday (around Oct. 22–23, 2026), Meta’s capital-expenditure commentary and related AI concerns turned a midweek relief rally into a sharp unwind. According to McElligott and ZeroHedge reporting:
- Nomura’s long/short pair monitor saw six 5-sigma moves in one day (plus dozens of 3- and 4-sigma stops; overall ~124 pair trades stopped out in a “traumatic risk-management unwind”). A 5-sigma event is extraordinarily rare under normal distributions. zerohedge.com
- Goldman data framed it as one of the ugliest hedge-fund days since the U.S. lost its AAA rating in 2011.
- The bleeding later paused, but McElligott questions whether the pressure has truly stopped. The market remains fragile after a week of negative AI catalysts, following a September rebound in long positioning and speculative upside options activity in the usual AI names. @SwissCerval
Why “toxic pick your poison”McElligott’s core point (widely circulated from his note and ZeroHedge summary):
- If hyperscaler capex keeps accelerating (as Meta illustrated): Markets obsess over free-cash-flow burn, financing sustainability, more issuance at wider spreads, and “non-linear” risks → AI trade gets hit on “unsustainability.”
- If hyperscaler capex decelerates: It signals a step-down from the prior “best-case” scenario that had been priced into AI demand, adoption, profitability, end-user margins, and productivity theses → AI trade gets “lit on fire.”
In short, the AI complex now loses whether spending accelerates or slows. This follows earlier concerns around Anthropic ARR, CoreWeave/neocloud sustainability, financing costs, weak AI-related IPOs, and questions about the broader growth narrative.
@SwissCervalBroader context
The moves reflect heavy crowding in high-Sharpe “gifts that kept giving” (carry + trend) trades that worked for much of the year. Late-Q4 performance pain is forcing de-risking and “survive the drawdown / protect capital into year-end” behavior, even where trades still look attractive on fundamentals. Reversal flags lit up across many assets (Treasuries, rates, equities including S&P/Nasdaq, commodities, FX). Hedge-fund net leverage and positioning saw sharp declines.
@neilsethinew
Commenters on X largely view the 5-sigma action as forced deleveraging/positioning flush rather than a pure fundamental demand collapse—crowded longs meeting a thin exit door—while noting that AI infrastructure demand metrics (e.g., GPU rental rates) can remain firm even as stocks reprice.
@zerohedge
The ZeroHedge piece itself is largely paywalled beyond the lede and key McElligott framing; the details above come from the publicly available excerpts, X discussions of the note, and contemporaneous reporting. Markets remain highly sensitive to further AI/hyperscaler updates and year-end risk management.
3 posts
1 web page
KING NEWS
| he King Report October 26, 2026 Issue 7855 | Independent View of the News |
| On Friday, oil rallied smartly. Dec WTI hit 102.66; Dec Brent hit 116.32; Nov Diesel hit 5.0244; and Nov Gasoline hit 3.1770. AI related stocks opened modestly higher on Friday but jumped higher. This action was traders great & small getting jiggy for trading sardines to play for the Friday Rally.The rotation out of AI stocks and into Dow Jones stocks reversed. The rotation out of AI and other techs has created a dubious and misleading broadening of breadth in the equity markets.The broadening breadth is a byproduct of the AI bubble deflating, a defensive act. It is NOT a sign of excitement for stocks in general.USZs traded as low as 107 4/32, -20/32, in early trading. Near 10:42 ET: MU +3.94, SPCX +3.21%, TSLA -0.73%, NVDA +0.56%, APPL -0.34%, Meta -0.46%, SNDK +2.79%, AMD +2.64%, AMZN -0.86%, INTC +2.34%; but the SOX Index was +1.62%!The SOX Index peaked at 10:53 ET and then rolled over into a slow-motion ABC decline that ended at 13:29 ET. The SOX Index rebounded moderately but rolled over into a pennant formation. The SOX Index breached the lower band of the pennant after 15:00 ET.The S&P 500 Index opened at 7637.18 (-26.25 pts) and fell to a daily low of 7612.07 at 10:27 ET. The 2nd Hour Reversal and the manipulation for the 11:30 ET European close, created the S&P 500 Index daily high of 7659.50 at 11:34 ET. The action became listless; there was NO Friday Afternoon Rally.The S&P 500 Index did a slow-motion (~3.45 hours) 5-wave decline into the close.University of Michigan Sentiment – Final Results for October 2026Oct Sep Oct M-M Y-Y2026 2026 2025 Index of Consumer Sentiment 48.0 48.1 53.6 -0.2% -10.4%Current Economic Conditions 46.7 50.9 58.6 -8.3% -20.3%Index of Consumer Expectations 48.8 46.3 50.3 +5.4% -3.0% Sentiment is now 10% below a year ago and 15% less than February, just prior to the Iran conflict.https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ Positive aspects of previous session SOX Index +0.48%; AI stocks rallied sharply but peaked in the morning. SP Energy +2.51%, Info Tech +0.35%; PHLX Oil Service +5.45% Negative aspects of previous session S&P 500 -0.52%, DJIA -1.23%, DJTA -1.24%, Nasdaq -0.21%, Nas 100 unchanged after early rallySP Consum Stables -1.83%, Consumer Discretionary -1.39%, Comm Services -1,39%, Financials -1.33%, Industrials -1.29%, Health Care -1.12%, Materials -0.99%; Utes 0.66%; USZs -21/32 at 16:24 ETDec WTI +$3.72, Dec Brent +$3.48, Dec Diesel +7.75¢, Nov Gasoline +3.31¢ at 16:26 ET Ambiguous aspects of previous session What will it take to generate a meaningful rally in busted AI issues?Will the auctions of $500+ billion of US debt this week affect bonds? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7631.75Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7659.50 (11:34 ET ET); 7612.07 (10:27 ET) The PHLX (Philadelphia Exchange) SOX Index hit its peak on June 22, 2026 at 14,655.11. It then experienced its first significant decline since February-April 2025 when it fell to 10,447.49 on July 29, 2026 (-28.7%). As is typically the case, the index then rebounded. An ABC rally took the SOX Index to 13,349.96 on October 6, 2026. It has fallen sharply since then and closed at 10.779.46 on Friday. Tops are identified when a vehicle violates the low of a significant decline after a long rally makes a peak. Ergo, if the 10,447.49 low of July 29, 2026 is breached with gusto, look out! This is the technical dynamic that produced crashes in 1929 and 1987. (SOX Index chart at link)https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$SOX/interactive-chart 1987 DJIA chart: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/WwN6HHVe-Revisiting-October-1987-Stock-Market-Crash/ 1929 DJIA chart: https://creditwritedowns.com/2008/06/chart-of-day-dow-1928-1932.html 2000 Nasdaq Bubble: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble#/media/File:Nasdaq_Composite_dot-com_bubble.svg 1720 Mississippi Bubble: https://vaulted.com/wp-content/uploads/Mississippi-Company-Share-Price.png 1720 South Sea Bubble: https://www.lutz.us/blog/financial-market-update-11-10-21 Rosneft admits losses from Ukraine’s refinery strikes becoming unsustainable, Bloomberg reportsRussia’s state-run oil giant Rosneft is facing mounting financial difficulties and the prospect of long-term damage as Ukraine expands its strike campaign against Russian oil refineries… Officials at Rosneft have privately voiced concerns that even a few more months of Ukraine’s continued attacks could lead to lasting damage for the company… Rosneft’s 12 refineries account for approximately one third of Russia’s total refining capacity…https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/rosneft-admits-losses-ukraines-refinery-210430734.html Qatari mediators are in Tehran as part of a diplomatic effort coordinated with the United States to de-escalate regional tensions: Reuters Qatari mediators press peace deal between US and Iran: Reuters Sept 29, 2026 Qatari delegation is in Iran, aims to boost mediation role: Reuters July 10, 2026 Qatari negotiating team in Tehran to try to help secure US-Iran deal to end war: Reuters May 22 “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.” Leftist violence explodes across Europe, with more than 1,000 arrested in FranceThe unrest spread elsewhere as violent clashes broke out in Rome and Albania’s capital of Tiranë, where government buildings were set ablaze…https://justthenews.com/world/more-70000-police-deployed-france-cities-prepare-more-riots Protests over rising costs spread across Italy, clashes with police reportedDemonstrations in Turin, Rome and Bologna turned violent, leading to confrontations between protesters and police, while rallies in Milan were largely peacefulhttps://justthenews.com/world/europe/protests-over-rising-costs-spread-across-italy-clashes-reported Conservative Party wins in British Columbia for first time in almost 100 yearsThe conservatives won 64 of the 93 seats and the New Democrats won 27, according to Reuters.https://justthenews.com/world/canada/conservative-party-wins-british-columbia-first-time-almost-100-years Today – This is Fed Week. The market expects no action due to the coming Midterm Elections. Traders will play for the Monday Rally and propensity for stocks to rally into the FOMC Communique release, which is on Wednesday. Equity futures are up smartly on Sunday night on the usual buying plus Trump’s assertion that the US will not attack Iran for now. New bullish factors: CNN projects that the GOP will keep control of the Senate; and House races that Dems hoped to flip are NOT going as well as Dems and their MSM Amen Chorus had proclaimed. Plus, GOP early voting, including mail ins, is stronger than expected. Plus, Obama, who treasures the holier-than-thou persona that he and the MSM crafted, went ‘I’m as mad as hell; and I’m not going to take it anymore’ on Trump during campaign appearances over the past few days. ESZs +17.50; NQZs +123.50, USZs +1/32, Dec WTI -$1.32, Dec Gas -2.32¢, ¥/$ 156.95 at 20:12 ET US 2-Year Note Auction ($69B); US 5-year ($70B) on 10/27; US 7-year ($44B) 10/29 ($183B total) T-Bill Auctions this week: 6-week ($95B) 10/27; 13-week ($95B) 10/26; 26-week ($82B) 10/26; 52-week ($54B) 10/27. That’s $326B of T-Bills!!!! Add in $183B of notes = $509B of US debt!!!https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/auction-announcements/ S&P 500 50-day MA: 7700; 100-day MA: 7604; 200-day MA: 7290 (Close 7623.68, -0.52%)Nasdaq 100 50-day MA: 29,829; 100-day MA: 29,572; 200-day MA: 27,836 (Close 28,9587.53, 0.0%) DJIA 50-day MA: 52,320 100-day MA: 52,301; 200-day MA: 50,532 (Close 52,215.16, -1.23%) (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) In U.S. Gas Talks with Kremlin, Hidden Financing for Alaska Project Emerges – NYTInterviews and documents show a Russian energy giant secretly funded a U.S. firm. The deal has been discussed in talks to end the war in Ukraine. An American energy company intends to buy Russian technology and use it to access a massive supply of natural gas in Alaska, liquefy it and export it to allies abroad. The Kremlin and the White House were interested in the idea. President Vladimir V. Putin discussed the plan last month with President Trump’s peace envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner… But it turns out that… The multibillion-dollar project has received secret funding from the same powerful Russian company that was to provide the technology… Joel Riddle, who was chief executive of the company, Polar LNG, until he resigned in September, said he had been misled about the sources of the start-up funding, which ostensibly came from a company in the United Arab Emirates…the true source of at least some of Polar LNG’s money was Novatek, a Russian energy giant under partial U.S. sanctions… The efforts to bring Novatek equipment to Alaska have also included a businessman, Gentry Beach, with ties to the Trump family. A college friend of Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, Mr. Beach served as a finance vice chairman for Mr. Trump’s 2017 inauguration…https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/23/us/politics/in-us-gas-talks-with-kremlin-hidden-financing-for-alaska-project-emerges.html Two ex-FBI officials charged with making false statements about Hunter Biden’s laptopAccording to the affidavit, Floris and Benavides made “materially false statements” to the House Judiciary Committee during a congressional investigation into the Foreign Influence Task Force’s involvement in the FBI’s various investigations into Hunter Biden.https://justthenews.com/nation/crime/two-ex-fbi-officials-charged-making-false-statements-about-hunter-bidens-laptop @CollinRugg: Robert Reich (Clinton econ advisor) calls for the “defunding” of Elon Musk, calls for Democrats to go after Musk’s companies. “Democrats ought to [start] laying the groundwork for nationalizing Starlink & SpaceX… It should be a public corporation.” Does he want Musk to drop another $50M on the midterms? https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/2114383765770576009 Is anyone paying attention to the Dems? They want to incarcerate political opponents; reeducate ideological foes; nationalize political opponents’ companies, etc.! Of course, the MSM is mum. Why are people not livid?!?! Why is this being tolerated and enabled? Does hating Trump justify everything and anything to ‘86’ Trump and his supporters, no matter how hateful, totalitarian, and evil? @WesternLensman: Kamala attempts to articulate the value of talking to children. It doesn’t go well:“I mean, if you have the chance in whatever your, you know, your circle of life to just, you know, talk to like an eight year old, that’s one of the best things, you know, someone who just has that twinkle.” “It hasn’t been, you know, they haven’t they they have the twinkle. They believe in, in all. And they’re curious and – Oh, that gives me joy just because, you know, there is something I think about, looking at children to remind us of our natural nature, who we actually it is our nature, our – There is something about that.” This was said at a ‘reproductive rights’ event. The irony here is next level. She somehow keeps managing to get worse at this. https://x.com/WesternLensman/status/2114503751348469878 Brazil’s Election Day Chaos: Buses Blocked, a Judge with Ties to Lula Extends Voting, and the Final Count Is Delayed – Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin — Lula’s former criminal defense attorney, appointed to the bench by Lula in 2023 — issued a nationwide two-hour voting extension, bypassing the Superior Electoral Court’s own deliberative process… The ruling forced electoral authorities to pause the vote count mid-tabulation… (Like Biden in 2020!)https://www.latintimes.com/brazil-election-voting-extension-supreme-court-600551 @CollinRugg: Brazil’s election could be annulled, according to the New York Times. Electoral lawyers say Brazil’s current situation is “extremely serious” and a “critical situation.” The NYT reports that confusion over a last-minute voting extension by Justice Cristiano Zanin, who was appointed by Lula, could lead to the election being annulled. (ALA Biden!) “This is an extremely serious, critical situation,” said electoral lawyer Priscilla Sodré Pereira to the New York Times. When Zanin made the last-minute decision to extend voting hours, some polling stations had already closed and shut down their voting machines. They could not reopen. “Fernando Neisser, an electoral law professor at Fundação Getulio Vargas, a Brazilian research institute, said the election could be annulled if the margin is very narrow and it is shown that polling stations stayed open longer in areas that strongly favor one candidate,” the NYT reported. | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Ex-FBI “Shadow Government” Official Among Two Charged With Lying To Congress Over Hunter Biden Laptop
Friday, Oct 23, 2026 – 03:25 PM
Two former senior FBI officials who ran the bureau’s now-defunct Foreign Influence Task Force during the 2020 election were charged Friday with lying to Congress about their roles in the FBI’s Hunter Biden investigations.
Nikki Cole Floris, 46, and Bradley Benavides, 56, each face one count of lying to Congress in a criminal complaint, D.C. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro announced in a post on X. Both surrendered Friday and made their first appearance in federal court in Washington, according to the AP.
Floris led the task force as a deputy assistant director from mid-2019 through mid-2022, while Benavides was its section chief through the 2020 election, FBI Director Kash Patel said. Both testified that the FITF was not involved in the Hunter Biden investigations. “Documentary evidence, contemporaneous communications, and witness accounts contradict their testimony,” Patel wrote, crediting the bureau’s Kansas City field office alongside the Justice Department and Pirro.
Benavides told Congress he learned about the laptop story from Wikipedia, but the Justice Department says it has evidence he discussed it with others inside the FBI, Fox News reports. Prosecutors also say Floris discussed Hunter Biden with members of the task force despite testifying otherwise. Pirro said the evidence showed “their involvement in helping shape the public narrative about Hunter Biden’s laptop right before the election.”
Floris’ lawyers called her “a patriot” who served as an FBI intelligence officer for nearly 20 years and said the Justice Department accused her “on the say-so of politicians, not on the facts.” “It’s no coincidence the government is filing these nonsense charges now, years later, on the eve of an election,” they said in a statement. Benavides has not publicly commented.
The case lands less than two weeks before the Nov. 3 midterms, the latest in a series of politically charged Justice Department actions in the run-up to the vote, the AP noted.
What The Task Force Knew
Christopher Wray set up the task force in 2017 to counter foreign influence operations, and it served as the bureau’s line to social media companies ahead of the 2020 election. The task force knew the laptop was real when the New York Post began publishing its contents in October 2020, Laura Dehmlow, then the FITF’s section chief, told House Judiciary investigators in July 2023, the Free Beacon reported.
The FBI nonetheless refused to answer social media companies’ questions about the laptop, including from a Twitter employee who asked task force representatives about its authenticity at a previously scheduled meeting the day the Post story ran, according to the committee.
Benavides also crossed paths with the two Republican senators then digging into the Biden family’s foreign money. On Aug. 6, 2020, he briefed Sens. Chuck Grassley and Ron Johnson in a session that, according to a June 2023 letter from House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan, hampered their investigation into Hunter Biden’s financial connections. Grassley called the briefing “unnecessary and completely irrelevant to the substance of our investigation.” Jordan’s letter asked Benavides, by then a senior risk manager at Amazon, to sit for a transcribed interview.
The Shadow Government Line
Patel’s post also invoked a private message Floris sent during an unrelated episode. Floris wrote she was “basically running a shadow government” in September 2020, as the bureau recalled a report alleging Chinese election interference, according to FBI messages declassified in July and reported by the Washington Examiner.
Wray named Floris in 2022 to run the Washington Field Office’s intelligence division, and Patel forced her out of the FBI in May 2025, the Examiner reported. Attorney General Pam Bondi had already disbanded the task force in February 2025, one of her first acts in office.
The CR-15 squad Patel cited at the end of his post was a Washington Field Office public corruption unit that worked Arctic Frost, the probe that fed into Jack Smith’s election case against Trump. Patel abolished it last October after disclosures that Arctic Frost had tracked Republican senators’ phone records.
The alleged lies date to 2023, according to Patel, which keeps them inside the five-year statute of limitations that generally governs federal false-statement charges until 2028. Anything the pair did during the 2020 campaign itself fell outside that window last fall.
END
Somaliland Accuses Ilhan Omar Of Leaking Classified Congressional Info To Somalia
Monday, Oct 26, 2026 – 11:20 AM
Authored by Catherine Salgado via PJ Media,
Another day, another Omar scandal, another piece of evidence indicating foreign loyalties and domestic betrayal.
Rep. Ilhan Omar’s (D-Minn.) father participated in genocide in Somaliland, and Omar herself has connections to top Somali thugs, so unsurprisingly there is a natural antipathy between Omar and Somaliland. The latest (resurrected) accusation from the breakaway African republic against Omar is that she leaked classified information to Somali leaders.
Ali Hassan Mohamed, former Somaliland minister of information, originally posted his accusation against Omar in 2024, but the @RepOfSomaliland account, which Somaliland’s Foreign Ministry has said is not an official government channel, is highlighting the accusation again to emphasize why Omar is a threat to American security.
On Sunday, the @RepOfSomaliland account (which Somaliland’s Foreign Ministry has said is not an official government channel), wrote of Omar, “She served on that same [House Foreign Affairs] committee and pressed Somalian leaders to act against Somaliland before relations between the Republic of Somaliland and the United States grows stronger. Months later on 6 February 2023, the Las Anod conflict erupted. Hundreds were killed and thousands displaced in a move that sought to destabilize Somaliland – but failed. This is how a foreign agent operates.”
Omar, whose real last name is Nur Said Elmi like her murderous father, is in America just to exploit our systems for her own benefit while still helping out the Islamic dictators back home. Somaliland is pro-America, but Somalia definitely isn’t.
By the way, the U.S. federal investigation into Omar’s immigration fraud includes not only the evidence that she married her brother, but also the total lack of record for her father’s naturalization as a citizen. Omar asserted that she had become a United States citizen through her father while she was still a minor, although she likely tampered with her birth year and he apparently lied about his citizenship status. Given all this, it is entirely possible that we have had a noncitizen Somali warlord’s daughter sitting in Congress all these years. No wonder she said that she would represent Somalia’s interests in Congress.
Omar is not just a liar and a criminal; she is a foreign asset embedded in our government. It’s time she is out of Congress and deported back to the country she claims to love so much.
GREG HUNTER….INTERVIEWING JOHN RUBINO
Perfect Storm for Banks – And the World – John Rubino
By Greg Hunter On October 24, 2026 In Market Analysis, Political Analysis27 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)
Analyst and financial writer John Rubino has a new warning about the financial health of the global economy, and it’s not good. Look no further than the most recent revelations of money problems at some of the biggest banks in the world. Rubino calls what we are facing is the “Perfect Storm” for banks. Rubino explains, “There are a lot of bad things happening in the banking sector right now kind of all at once. So, you do have the potential for a perfect storm. I’ll just go through a few of them. First of all, banks in the US own $4 trillion to $5 trillion in US government paper . . .. They use Treasury bonds as their safe asset. When interest rates go up, the price (or value) of the bonds goes down. This means there are a lot of unreported losses on bank balance sheets. . .. If those things find their way into earnings reports, which they will, then you have to count the losses. That is scary for the banks because they will have to report losses, and that spooks the depositors and you get bank runs. That is just there waiting to happen. Then, there are the subprime auto loans that are going bust at an accelerating rate. . .. That’s $1.7 trillion or so the banks have to worry about. Then, there are office buildings, and it’s kind of the same thing. Office buildings are losing value. . .. So, banks are looking at more unreported losses there. . .. The really big one is the artificial intelligence (AI) industry. It needs massive amounts of new capital in order to build the new data centers. Private credit companies have financed this . . . and the big banks financed the private credit companies. So, if the AI bubble bursts, the big banks will be on the hook for a lot of that debt. Wherever you look, the banks have a lot of unreported losses sitting out there waiting for them to become reported.”
But it’s not just the banks facing a ‘perfect storm.’ It is countries like France, where communism and Islam have joined forces in the so-called “Islamo-Leftist Green-Red” movement. These Green-Red “protests” are in their second month. Do you think this destructive violence is good for the France banks or their economy? France has just had a credit downgrade, and if France fails, it could take down the Eurozone and maybe the global economy. Rubino says, “They are illustrating the validity of the saying ‘import the third world and become the third world.’ They are just not France anymore. Most of Europe has varying degrees of the same problems. Europe is not that far away from becoming a nuclear armed caliphate, which creates all kinds of problems for the US.”
Meanwhile, the problems in France have already spread to the rest of Europe, and Rubino points out, “Europe was a bigger economy than the US, or at least it was. When you have trouble in an entity that is that big, nobody escapes the fallout. The European crisis is a global crisis.”
Rubino contends, “The only way they can survive as a culture is to have a civil war and round up people who are never going to assimilate and deport them.”
They want to do the same “Islamo-Leftist Green-Red” movement in the US after the midterm elections that is currently happening in France.
Rubino also does not worry about the recent sell off in gold and silver prices. He thinks this is just a price pullback in a much larger precious metals bull market. Nobody is going to be able to pay back any of the huge global debt accumulated by almost every country on the planet. Gold and silver cannot default, but bonds surely can.
There is much more in the 43-minute interview.
There is an 8-minute video to explain how easy it is to ride out any terror attack or extreme storm. You can get more information on Sat phones and backup battery power at Sat123.com. You can get all the information on Starlink “Mini” here. You can get all the new Faraday bags and clothing at DarkBags.com. You can also call 855-980-5830 and talk to a real human. Same goes for EscapeZone.com where you can get Faraday bags big and small, and the newest Faraday clothing. You can also talk to a real human at EscapeZone.com by calling 702-825-0005.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes one-on-one with financial writer John Rubino of the popular site called Rubino.Substack.com for 10.24.26.
After the Interview:
John Rubino is a prolific financial writer, and you can see some of his work for free at Rubino.Substack.com.
There is even more cutting-edge original information and analysis if you subscribe. (Rubino charges an incredibly low price of $5 per month or $50 a year. That’s a deal for cutting edge analysis and money-making ideas.)
You can also support John Rubino at the snail mail address below:
PO Box 953
Carlsborg, WA 98324
