EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,017.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/29/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 11/02/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
072 H GOLDMAN 349
152 C DORMAN TRADING, LLC 1
190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 50
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 1100
365 C MAREX CAPITAL MARKET 429
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 1265 1951
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 2
709 C BARCLAYS 493
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 1 76
905 C ADM 7
TOTAL: 2,862 2,862
MONTH TO DATE: 2,862
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOVEMBER./2026: 2862 CONTRACTS NOTICES FOR2862000 OZ or 286,200 TONNES
total notices so far: 286200 contracts FOR 286,200 OZ OR 8.902TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 1164 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 5.820 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1164CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 5.820 million oz
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $129.60 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL INSTEAD OF FRAUDULENT GLD..HUGE CHANGES AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043,36 TONNES
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $3.06 AT THE SLV..NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/
NOV: INITIAL STANDING 32.540 MILLION OZ
NOV: INITIAL STANDINGl 10.566 TONNES OF GOLD
GOLD PRICE LOSS OF 18.85
NOV INITIAL STANDING 10.566 TONNES
HANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 30.04 PTS OR 0.82%
SHANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 52.46 PTS OR 1.44%
Nikkei CLOSED DOWM 1333.47 PTS OR 2.06%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.06%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 6.6560
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.6514Oil UP TO 103.87 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 112.74Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIOSTLY RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING 6.6560 //OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.6514ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGEROFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
NOV 0
THE SPECS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE ( IT FELL BY $18.85
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1 ENTRIES i) Out of BRINKS 2507.780 oz total withdrawal 2507.780 oz |
| Deposit to theDealerInventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold 0 ENTRIES xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 2862 CONTRACTS 286,200 OZ 08.902TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 535Contracts 53,500 OZ 1.6640 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 28629notices 286200OZ 8.902TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS:CUSTOMER ACCT
ENTRIES: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawals
1 ENTRIES
i) Out of BRINKS 2507.780 oz
total withdrawal 2507.780 oz
adjustments: 3 all dealer to customer
a) Asahi 6313.119 oz
b) JPMorganL 5061,931 oz
c) Manfra 8200.-86 oz
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF NOVOI STANDS AT 3397 CONTRACTS HAVING A GAIN OF 1819 CONTRACTS.
THUS BY DEFINITION THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD WILLING TO STAND IN NOVEMBER IS AS FOLLOWSl
3397 NOTICES X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT
EQUALS
3397,00OZ OR 10.566TONNES
.
DECEMBER, THE LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR, ITS OI FALLS BY 3421 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 275,161.
JANUARY FRISES BY 0 CONTRACTS TO 663 OI
.
We had 1184 contracts filed for today representing 118,400 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 1265 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 2862 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 61951notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NON /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2862 to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV ( 13397CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 2862x 100 oz per contract) equals 13397,00OZ OR(10.566Tonnes of gold) t
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NOV. /2026. contract month,we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2,862) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV(3397contracts minus the number of notices served upon today 2862x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,3397,00OZ OR(10.566Tonnes of gold)
new total of gold standing in NOV becomes 10.566TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR NOV: 10.566TONNES WHICH IS NOW VERY STRONG FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV/
THURSDAY VOLUME: 108,689air
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,718,115.705 oz 53.44tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,718,115.705.tonnes oz 53.44 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 23,206,8454.845oz//
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 14,809,502.671tonnes (460,63 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 8,377,765.0360oz.
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 13,091,387oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
407.197 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
NOV DELIVERY MONTH
OCT 30
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries i) Out of CNT 29,737.399 oz ii) Out of Loomis 680,436.680 oz TOTAL WITHDDRAWAL: 710,169.070 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | ENTRIES: 2 i)Into Loomis 299,109.070 oz ii) Into Manfra 300,272.573 oz total deposit 599,381.643 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 1164 CONTRACT(S) ( 5,820,000OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 5344Contracts (26.72 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1164 contracts 5.820MILLIONoz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
ENTRY:0
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
2 ENTRIES:
i)Into Loomis 299,109.070 oz
ii) Into Manfra 300,272.573 oz
total deposit 599,381.643 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals:
2 ENTRIES
i) Out of CNT 29,737.399 oz
ii) Out of Loomis 680,436.680 oz
TOTAL WITHDDRAWAL: 710,169.070 oz
adjustments : 2// all dealer to customer
a) Asahi 203,911.909
b) CNT 149,132.723 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 104.295 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 335.761Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT
FRONT MONTH: SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS: 6508FOR A LOSS OF 92 CONTRACTS .
THUS BY DEFINITION THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER WILLING TO STAND IS AS FOFLLOWS
6508 NOTICES
X 5000 OZ PER NOTICE
EQUALS
32.540 MILLIONOZ
.
DECEMBER LOST 2585CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 82,602
JANUARY GAINED 24 C0NTRACTS TO 837 OI
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 1184 or 5.820 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volumeTHURSDAY; 69,747 strong/raid/
AND NOW NOV DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1164 X5,000 oz = 5.820MILLION oz.
Then we take the difference between the front month of OCT. and the number of notices filed for today x 5000 to give us our standing
Thus the standings for silver for the NOV 2026 contract month: (1164Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT (6598 minus number of notices served upon today ( 1164x 5000 oz) equals silver standing for the NOV .contract month equating to 32.540 MILLION OZ t
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 104,295million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 125.145 ///335.761million: 37.31%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
OCT 30/ WITH GOLD DOWN $129.60 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.08TONNNES
0CT 29 2026 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.45 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 2,56 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043,34 TONNNES
OCT 28/2026 WITH GOLD DOWN $23,45 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.20 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD..INVENTORY REST AT 1041,65 TONNES
OCT 27/2026/WITH GOLD UP $38.30/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.65TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.80 TONNES
OCT 26//2026/WITH GOLD UP $28.40/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 16.17TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.45TONNES
OCT 23//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1057.62 TONNES
OCT 22//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $87.75 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.18 TONNES
OCT 21//2026/WITH GOLD UP $8.55 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD.// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 20//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.05 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 19//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 5.13 TONNES OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 16//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.91 TONNES
OCT 15//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.21 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.20 TONNES
OCT 14//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $66.25 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.41 TONNES
OCT 13//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF OF 2.281TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.411 TONNES
OCT 12//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.13 TONNES
OCT 9//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.562 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.411 TONNES
OCT 8//2026/WITH GOLD UP $16.85 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.703 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.873 TONNES
OCT 7//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.27 TONNES
OCT 6//2026/WITH GOLD UP $30.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A DEPOSIT OF 0.754 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.27 TONNES
OCT 5//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.854 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.696 TONNES
OCT 2//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $43.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A DEPOSIT OF 0.854 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.55 TONNES
OCT 1//2026/WITH GOLD UP $19.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.711 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.696 TONNES
SEPT 30//2026/WITH GOLD UP $7.80 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A DEPOSIT OF 2.847 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1057.407 TONNES
SEPT 29//2026/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.56 TONNES
SEPT 28//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $150.20 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.56 TONNES
SEPT 25//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $150.20 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.56 TONNES
SEPT 24//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD://:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.84 TONNES
SEPT 23//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $58.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.41 TONNES
SEPT 22//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.41 TONNES
SEPT 21//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 2.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.10 TONNES
SEPT 18//2026/WITH GOLD UP $26.45 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 0.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.84 TONNES
SEPT 17//2026/WITH GOLD UP $14.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.99 TONNES
SEPT 16//2026/WITH GOLD UP $53.40 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.28 TONNES
SEPT 15//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.45 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.353 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.420 TONNES
SEPT 14//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $54.50 /SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.353 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.420 TONNES
SEPT 11//2026/WITH GOLD UP $1.05 /SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.353 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.277 TONNES
/
GLD INVENTORY: 1041.08 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
OCT 30// WITH SILVER DOWN $3.06// NO CHANGES AT THE SKV/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.681 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25: :HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV:// A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.354 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.681 MILLION OZ
OCT 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25: :NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.327 MILLION OZ
OCT 27 WITH SILVER UP $0.25: :NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.327 MILLION OZ
OCT 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.25: :SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV:// A DEPOSIT OF 451,000 OZ OF SILLVER INTO THE SLV // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.327 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.94 : :NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.876 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.72 : : SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 632,000 OZ INTO SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.876 MILLION OZ
OCT 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28 : : STRONG CHANGES AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 858,000 OZ INTO SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.508 MILLION OZ
OCT 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 : :NO CHANGES A WITHDRAWAL OF 943,000 OZ INTO OUT OF SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.650 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP $1.19 : :MEGA HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 4.374 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.593 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER UP $1.19 : :SMALL CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 406,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.219 MILLION OZ
OCT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.25 : :SMALL CHANGES A WITHDRAWAL OF 135,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.948 MILLION OZ
OCT 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.97 : :HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 722,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.813 MILLION OZ
OCT 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51 : :HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 722,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.948 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.62 : :SMALL CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 948,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.226 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.74 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 532,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.278 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.36 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 451,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.910 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.31 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.361 MILLION OZ
OCT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.87 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.361 MILLION OZ
OCT 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.74 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.578 MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.57 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.400 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.578 MILLION OZ
SEPT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.55 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 994,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.978 MILLION OZ
SEPT 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 566,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.984 MILLION OZ
SEPT 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.91 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.542 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.436 MILLION OZ
SEPT 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.91 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.542 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.436 MILLION OZ
SEPT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.96 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.813 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.533 MILLION OZ
SEPT 23 WITH SILVER UP $1.58 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.716 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.346 MILLION OZ
SEPT 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.062 MILLION OZ
SEPT 21 WITH SILVER UP $1.04 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.558 MILLION OZ
SEPT 18 WITH SILVER UP $1.04 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.558 MILLION OZ
SEPT 17 WITH SILVER UP $1.10 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.265 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.558 MILLION OZ
SEPT 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.95 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 813,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.823 MILLION OZ
SEPT 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 813,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.636 MILLION OZ
SEPT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.91 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.449 MILLION OZ
SEPT 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.50 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.449 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 499.681MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF//JOHN RUBINO//RAVEN
JOHN RUBINO
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
Transition markets
Despite extremely negative sentiment, large flows of bullion continue to leave western markets, and bullion banks appear to be positioning themselves for higher prices.
This week saw gold move sideways, while silver dips towards historic peaks at $50. But quietly, there appears to be a move of bullion into stronger hands. Silver’s open interest on Comex is an illustration:
Note how open interest has been increasing since the highly oversold level of last April — not dramatic, but coupled with healthy trading volumes, silver paper appears to be moving into stronger hands:
These are still early days, but we see something similar in gold. There is a further clue: The insiders’ insider Jamie Dimon mentioned $10,000 gold and called for foreign holders to retain their vaulting in the US, saying it is the safest place. Clearly, bullion holders disagree. But when the boss of the largest bullion bank suggests gold could go to $10k, we should sit up and take notice. And when we look at Comex, stands for delivery so far this year total over 600 tonnes. Furthermore, gold has been leaving Comex’s inventory at a 250-tonne pace this year so far:
Silver deliveries this year total 9,284 tonnes, and that has left inventories in addition to a further 3,000 tonnes (100m ounces) since last December:
As we’ve said before, Comex is the largest gold-cum-silver mine in the world by far.
While amateur traders have given up hope of ever making imaginary money out of gold and silver, the big players are still stacking. Some of this has to do with a market transition from west to east, following bullion flows. Having more or less cornered the physical bullion market, China is establishing a replacement of London and New York bullion markets in Hong Kong.
Meanwhile, with bond yields at current levels, the tide appears to be turning against equity markets, which appear to be losing upside momentum building losses for investors. Clearly, the investment management establishment is on the cusp of change for which it is wrong-footed.
How do modern macroeconomists assess rising oil prices, rising interest rates, and higher bond yields? Do they continue to trade the existing trends and hope for the best? Or do they consider the dreaded debasement trade? You can feel the confusion. But the facts point to the bullion bank establishment setting itself up for the next run into higher gold and silver prices. Listen to Jamie Dimon. The major bullion banks are also beefing up their Hong Kong trading desks.
Politics and geopolitics
Next week sees the US mid-terms, after which it is widely believed in the Middle East that the US and Israel will renew attacks against Iran and that Iran has threatened to retaliate against all US allies in the region with renewed force. The initial reaction in capital markets could be a flight into the dollar. But further consideration will undoubtedly focus on the economic consequences for the global economy and bond yields, leading to a bond market crisis spilling over into equities.
We must hope that fears over a new phase of the war against Iran do not materialise. But the greatest transition currently underway in capital markets appears to be from investor greed for profit towards fear of losses. It is also clear to those in the know that markets are hostage to western propaganda claiming that the oil disruption in the Middle East is now minimal; claims not borne out by satellite tracking data for those who care to look.
Meanwhile, the wisdom of stacking gold and silver instead of being hostage to short-term market emotions continues to make sense. There are fundamental shifts underway. Indeed, this appears to be a golden opportunity to continue accumulating physical bullion while investor interest is at its lowest ebb.
END
CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE//KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT/295
END
5. COMMODITY REPORT ///COPPER
Key China Copper Gauge Flashes Warning As Mysteel Global Warns Metal Is “Sold Out Everywhere”
Friday, Oct 30, 2026 – 05:45 AM
Deglobalization, decades of underinvestment in mining, rising copper demand tied to the AI data center buildout, and surging US stockpiling ahead of potential import tariffs have pushed copper prices to record highs, approaching $15,000 a ton in London.
The resulting supply squeeze is forcing Chinese buyers to compete more aggressively for physical metal, driving the Yangshan premium, which measures what importers pay above London benchmark prices, to its highest level on record, Bloomberg reports.
The Yangshan premium is the extra amount Chinese buyers pay above the London Metal Exchange benchmark to secure physical imported copper. That metric topped $200 a ton, according to Fastmarkets data going back to 2017.
Xiao Chuankang, a copper analyst at Shanghai-based commodities consultancy Mysteel Global, was quoted by the outlet as saying that the industrial metal is “sold out everywhere” and “the premium will remain elevated due to supply scarcity.”
Separately, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, warned that copper prices might have peaked for the year if the AI trading-theme correction accelerates to the downside, weighing on critical material inputs for data centers and the power grid. He nevertheless expects copper to gain about 10% over the next year, with volatility along the way.
Hansen also sees gold reaching $4,500 an ounce by year-end and $5,000 to $5,500 next year, supported by continued central-bank buying.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 30.04 PTS OR 0.82%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 639.81 PTS OR 1.00 %
Nikkei CLOSED UP 639.81 PTS OR 1.00%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.35%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 6.6614
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.6684 Oil DOWN TO 101.97 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 114.61 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING 6.6614OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.6684 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGEROFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 6.6560
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.6514
1A.HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 156.83 PTS OR 0.68%
1 B. SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 52.46 PTS OR 01.44%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 1333.47BPTS OR 2.06 %
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 103.87
BRENT; 112.74
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED EXCEPT LONDON
USA dollar INDEX DOWN 36 BASIS PTS TO 101.54 EURO RISES TO 1.1195 UP 53 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.763 DOWN 8 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 157.43… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.837 DOWN 6 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP //CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP (6.6560 AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.6514
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA. CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. GOVERMENT ASKED JAPAN PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE FUNDS TO BUY MORE JAPANESE BONDS AND REPATRIATE ALL FOREIGN BONDS.
3g Oil UP for WTI and DOWN for Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yieldsLOWER on all fronts in the EU German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +3.3344 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UPAT 4.524 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.9840
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 4.4433%
3j Gold at $3930.00 /Silver at: 49.80 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0AND 68/ 100 roubles/80.90
3m oil (WTI) into the 103 dollar handle for WTI and 112 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 157.43 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.763% DOWN 8 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS TO BE REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.837 DOWN 6 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.82714 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9195
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.9230 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS…NOW BELOW 5.00%
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.2960 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.5920 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 49.82 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.2973 DOWN 2 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.6931DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
10 YEAR FRENCH BOND YIELD; 4.948 //UP 7 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.8010 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.5380 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Slide As AI Reckoning Claims Amazon, Intel; Oil Jumps On Hormuz Tanker Hits
Friday, Oct 30, 2026 – 08:20 AM
US futures slide with Nasdaq futures tumbling more than 2%, as the AI reckoning that started with Alphabet’s record plunge claims two more megacaps: Amazon slides after a capex shock and the slowest e-commerce growth in three years, while Intel craters 26% after a guide that was “much weaker than expected”; meanwhile oil keeps climbing on signs the US may resume strikes against Iran and on an Iranian claim that two oil tankers were hit and stopped in Hormuz; as a result, the Nasdaq 100 is now tracking its biggest monthly underperformance against the equal-weighted S&P since 2002, with its members having wiped out more than $1.2 trillion in market cap this month. As of 7:30am ET, S&P futures are 1.1% lower at 7,672 while Nasdaq futures drop about 2.2% (28,970.75 in the Markets at a Glance snapshot) and Dow futures are up 0.1% at 52,575; Russell 2000 futures are down a more modest 0.5%. The losses come after a session in which the S&P fell 0.3% (and the Nasdaq 1.4%) even as 406 S&P members rose and the equal-weight index hit its highest since August, a reminder that the market is rotating rather than running for the exits. In premarket trading, all Mag 7 names are lower, led by Amazon (-7.3%), while AI infrastructure stocks tumble after Amazon and Intel and crypto-linked names slide after Binance suffered the industry’s biggest-ever hack; Amazon’s slump confirms our post from last night. Defensives and the non-AI parts of the market are bid, with Mondelez, Gilead and Colgate higher. The day’s driver is oil (again): Brent rose as much as 2.5% to around $117.76 as reports keep pointing to US strikes on Iran after Tuesday’s midterms and the Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi oil facilities, while Exxon and Chevron both posted record refining profits. Treasuries are higher with the 10Y yield down 3bps to 4.91%, near the lowest in six weeks, as the tech rout spurs haven demand; bunds and gilts edge higher while French OATs lag after hotter than expected French inflation. The Bloomberg dollar index falls 0.3%, its third straight decline, the Swiss franc outperforms on haven demand and the pound hit the highest since Sept. 16. In commodities, WTI is up 1.7% at about $103.50, gold slipped below $4,000 and silver drops 2.6%. Bitcoin is down 1.6% near $77,800 after the Binance hack. US economic data slate includes 3Q employment cost index (8:30am, est. 0.8%, prior 0.9%) and October MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, est. 56, prior 58.8). Fed speaker slate includes Barkin (9:30am), Daly (12pm) and Musalem (12:30pm).
In premarket trading, all Mag 7 names are lower: Amazon.com (AMZN) plunges 7.3% as growth in the company’s Amazon Web Services cloud-computing business was seen as underwhelming; Nvidia (NVDA) -2.8%, Tesla (TSLA) -2.4%, Meta Platforms (META) -1.8%, Apple (AAPL) -1.1%, Alphabet (GOOGL) -0.7%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.6%. Here are some of the other notable premarket movers:
- AI infrastructure stocks tumble following discouraging results from Amazon and Intel.
- Cryptocurrency-linked stocks slide after Binance suffered the industry’s biggest-ever hack in a fresh blow to efforts to push digital assets into the mainstream.
- Alphatec (ATEC) plunges 33% after the medical devices company reported third quarter revenue that missed the average analyst estimate.
- Coursera (COUR) drops 9% after the nline educational firm provided a disappointing forecast for fourth quarter revenue.
- DXC Technology (DXC) falls 12% after the IT services company cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year. The company also said there are ongoing talks for the possible sale of its insurance business.
- FedEx Freight (FDXF), which was spun off from FedEx Corp. in June, climbs 4% after posting revenue of $3.3 billion in the four months ending in September, an increase of 9.2% over the same period last year.
- Gilead Sciences (GILD) rises 4% after the biopharmaceutical company boosted its product sales guidance for the full year.
- Intel (INTC) plummets 25% after the chipmaker’s outlook was much weaker than expected, due in part to sluggishness in PCs.
- Mondelez International (MDLZ) is up 7% after the company said it would acquire a majority stake in Undercover Snacks, bolstering the better-for-you part of its portfolio.
- Newell Brands (NWL) falls 11% after the household-products maker narrowed its normalized earnings per share forecast for the full year.
- Pinterest (PINS) falls 8% after the social-media company reported revenue for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
- Reddit (RDDT) tumbles 20% after daily active users for the third quarter and a fourth-quarter revenue forecast missed expectations. Analysts also debated a plan to limit access to its forums to users with accounts.
- Regeneron (REGN) climbs 7% after the drugmaker posted revenue and adjusted profit for the third quarter that are ahead of Wall Street’s expectations.
- Rivian (RIVN) jumps 6% after the maker of electric vehicles reported revenue for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Roblox (RBLX) slides 18% as the company reported a year-over-year decline in player engagement after deploying more robust child-safety measures.
- Stryker (SYK) falls 11% after slashing its outlook as the medical device company struggles to shake off the lingering effects of a cyberattack.
- Symbotic (SYM) inches 2% higher after robotics technology firm expanded an agreement with retail giant Walmart.
- Twilio (TWLO) is down 18% in the latest example of a software stock tumbling in the wake of results as investors reassess the sector’s growth outlook amid growing AI adoption.
In other corporate news, Anthropic turns out to be SpaceX’s largest single customer, accounting for more than a third of revenue at Elon Musk’s AI, satellite and rocket venture in the third quarter (the $3 billion-a-month “Customer B”; SpaceX is down 3.1% premarket); Microsoft’s $25 billion bond offering got a red-carpet reception, though that doesn’t mean the next Big Tech borrower will be as welcome (a question we asked here); Marvell is close to a megadeal for laser maker Lumentum; Chevron beat estimates on high oil prices and record refining margins (3Q adjusted EPS $5.28 vs est. $4.93) while Exxon reaped record refining profits as gasoline and diesel soared; Starbucks’ US sales rose faster than expected; Tesco will sell its Czech and Slovak operations at a €1.7 billion enterprise value; Evonik declined to enter takeover talks with BASF; SoftBank-backed OPay priced at a $4 billion value for its New York IPO; Mohawk announced a $500 million buyback and Repligen will issue $1 billion in convertible notes.
Disappointing reports from tech heavyweights including Amazon have fueled fears over massive AI spending, and the results compound the worries sparked by Alphabet, exposing concerns around trillions of dollars in future obligations to pay for a worldwide build-out of AI infrastructure. But, as Bloomberg notes, money is finding its way into other parts of the market instead of rotating entirely into cash: about 406 S&P 500 members rose on Thursday even as the index fell 0.3%, and in Bloomberg’s advance-decline data going back to 1996, the index has closed higher on all 987 previous sessions with at least 400 gainers. Thursday was another such outlier (Alphabet’s record drop, which we dissected here, saw to that).
The result is a historic gap between the cap-weighted tech complex and everything else: the Nasdaq 100 is tracking its biggest monthly underperformance against the equal-weighted S&P 500 since 2002, the kind of chart that tends to get people asking which 1999 we are in.
“Tech earnings have proven a major hurdle with investors suddenly becoming capex vigilantes,” said Jai Malhi, a senior equity strategist at Vanda Research. “With seemingly higher funding costs of capex, if revenue growth is not beating a high bar then tech names are being punished.”
BofA’s Michael Hartnett said the reversal in tech leadership, along with the rise in the dollar and bond yields, was “classic painful tightening stuff but not mortal” unless accompanied by job losses or a credit event. He expects the next big risk-on mood to be sparked by the end of central bank rate hikes and a potential “collapse” in oil prices in the first half of 2027.
Not everyone is panicking: the risks impacting the AI trade “are very well known and priced in,” Suresh Tantia, head CIO Asia equity strategy at UBS Wealth Management, said in a Bloomberg TV interview, adding that he remains positive on the AI trade, though “easy money has been made.”
Bloomberg’s Markets Live team sees crude as the tiebreaker: oil will drive the next major cross-asset move, as any price declines validate the Treasury rally and cushion equities while rising yields would feed tech weakness.
JPMorgan’s Market Intel desk (Andrew Tyler) writes that “with renewed fears over AI Monetization, the Equity rotation is likely to continue today but the broader indices will reflect Tech’s downside”, noting AMZN -7.3% and INTC -25.7% pre-market are driving semis (SOXX -6%) and memory (DRAM -5.6%) lower, while there is a defensive bid and the non-AI parts of cyclicals are also higher. Tyler’s team remains Tactically Bullish, arguing that an economy growing at or above trend with positive earnings growth produces a bull market, although “we have yet to have a complete positioning washout despite sentiment being firmly in the Fear region.” Elsewhere at JPM, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou finds that retail investors poured record amounts into leveraged equity ETFs over the past couple of weeks, while QQQ short interest rose to its highest since 2023, and Chase card data show October total spending growth decelerating to ~5.8% Y/Y from ~6.8% in September, driven by slower discretionary spending.
Over at Goldman, Rich Privorotsky’s flow and positioning note flags a “potential outright gross unwind” in Asia, and on Amazon says AWS was fine (+39.3% to $46bn) but “the problem is everything else”: advertising grew 12% vs 18% expected, the first miss in seven quarters, and trailing free cash flow is now -$42bn. “The point at which hyperscalers shift from needing more capacity at almost any cost to optimizing returns on what they’ve already built is the one I’d really worry about,” he adds. GS TMT specialist Sean Johnstone’s take: “AI demand is not the problem, capacity and the cost of delivering it are”; he notes Intel’s Q4 revenue guide of $15.5bn at the midpoint compared to a Street at $17.0bn, with gross margin seen at 38% vs 42.5%. Not everyone was selling yesterday: Goldman saw $9bn of MOC to BUY at Thursday’s close, while one customer bought 15k SPX March 5500 puts as a crash hedge.
The calendar adds to the tension: Trump canceled appearances in Kansas and Iowa for the closing days of the midterm campaign in favor of “tele-rallies” (more here), with prediction markets putting Democrats at 94% for the House (here is what Wall Street expects), and investors are worried that Fed Chair Warsh’s plan to reduce the number of interest-rate decisions each year could be a recipe for more volatility in the $32 trillion Treasury market.
In Europe, the bond story is once again France: the economy unexpectedly contracted while October inflation came in at 3.8% vs 3.6% expected, nearing a three-year high and adding to headaches that already include surging borrowing costs, violent protests and budgetary uncertainty. The OAT-bund spread widened 4bps to 160bps on lower risk appetite and the inflation beat, while Italian inflation exploded to 5.6% vs 4.6% expected and the euro-area economy grew 0.4% Q/Q in Q3, double the estimate, keeping the ECB on track for a December hike (Panetta said further increases “could prove necessary”).
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is down 0.2% at 647.74, with 268 members up and 321 down, as renewed concerns over AI spending rattle global markets. European chip stocks are lower across the board after weak reports from Amazon and Intel (ASML -4.5%, ASM International -4.6%, AT&S -12%), while a fresh batch of earnings from Sanofi, AstraZeneca and BP lifted those shares and UMG soared as much as 15% on recovering subscription growth. The FTSE 100 is up 0.2% while the Euro Stoxx 50 drops 0.8% and the DAX 0.4%. JPM’s desk notes Quality and Size are leading with Growth and Beta lagging, with AI Disruption, Bond Proxies and Defensives baskets outperforming while Semis and AI plays lag. Here are the biggest European movers:
- UMG shares soar as much as 15% after the music label reported stronger-than-expected subscription revenue growth and profit margins, showing signs of improvement after the firm missed expectations on the key metric for two straight quarters.
- European chip stocks are lower across the board on Friday, after weak reports from Amazon and Intel overnight dent investor sentiment and revive the debate on the sustainability of AI spending. ASML -4.7%, ASMI -4.5%, BE Semiconductor -4.4%, VAT -3.0%, Infineon -3.4%, STMicro -3.2%, Soitec -5.7%, AT&S -11%, Technoprobe -5.2%
- NatWest Group shares decline as much as 3.9% after the lender’s third-quarter results. Analysts flag lingering risks to the income outlook, with softer revenue trends, higher impairments and intensifying competition overshadowing better costs and capital.
- Puma gains as much as 7.6% after reporting third-quarter results that were broadly in line with expectations, including narrowing its forecast Ebit loss for the full year.
- Sanofi rises 5.8%, the most since October 2025, after the French drugmaker reported a third-quarter profit beat and raised guidance. Jefferies analysts point to stronger-than-expected Dupixent sales.
Asian stocks fell, remaining on track for their worst month since March, as the US tech selloff and concerns over the AI buildout weighed on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.1%, extending October’s decline to over 6%, with Samsung and SK Hynix among the biggest drags; the Korean chipmakers have each lost more than 16% this month. South Korea’s Kospi sank 3.5% (triggering a sidecar), Taiwan’s Taiex fell 2.5%, Japan’s Nikkei dropped 2.1% and the Topix 1%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng bucked the trend with a 1.5% gain as platform names picked up the slack from chipmakers; Australia’s ASX 200 and India’s Nifty also rose. China’s CSI 300 fell 1.4% and Chinese stocks suffered their worst month in more than a decade as fading policy support and doubts over AI earnings deepened investor pessimism, prompting the CSRC to vow to stabilize markets. Goldman’s Privorotsky described the price action in Asia as a “potential outright gross unwind”, with AI winners hit 3-5% while consumer and AI laggards were bid. The BOJ kept rates at 1.25% in an 8-1 vote, declared underlying inflation has reached its 2% goal, nearly tripled the pace of its ETF sales, and Governor Ueda kept a December hike in play.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%, weighed down by the rout in US tech stocks, and is on track to end the month largely flat. The Swiss franc outperforms most G-10 peers on haven demand, while USD/JPY fell 0.3% to around 157.2 as the yen held gains after the BOJ said underlying inflation has reached its target; Japan’s MOF confirmed it did not intervene in October. GBP/USD rose as much as 0.4% to 1.3432, the highest since Sept. 16, and EUR/USD is up 0.2% at 1.12. ING strategists said that “to us, the main risk for the dollar today is some precautionary unwinding of net-long positions ahead of Tuesday’s US midterm elections,” adding “we’d be cautious in chasing the USD upside in the next few days.” Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos says the “AI dollar” is here and its haven bias is less certain.
In rates, Treasuries inched higher, with the 10-year yield slipping 1bp to 4.93% (in a 4.89%-4.94% range) after Thursday’s rally took 2-year (4.60%) and 10-year (4.94%) yields to their lowest since mid-September, despite a strong batch of data including Q3 GDP of 3.4% and the lowest 4-week average of jobless claims since 1969 (an inconvenient fact for those who think good news is still good news). Per Goldman’s Asia macro desk, the December FOMC still has about 18.5bp of hikes priced. In Europe, bunds edged higher across the curve on demand for havens as tech stocks slid (10Y bund yield -2bps to 3.34%), while gilts are set for their third straight weekly gain, the longest winning streak since February, after the fiscally restrained UK budget and as government bonds benefited from rotation out of stocks (10Y gilt 5.28%, -2bps). French bonds lag after the hotter-than-expected CPI print. Money markets price about 22bps of ECB hikes in December.
In commodities, oil continues its rise: Brent December futures climbed as much as 2.5% to $117.76, after nearly reaching $118 overnight, while WTI rose 1.7% to around $103.50-104. Iran claimed two oil tankers were hit by incidents and stopped in Hormuz, after a Panama-flagged tanker and a dhow were hit in the strait on Thursday; meanwhile reports continue to point to US strikes on Iran after the midterms, the Houthis said they targeted Ras Tanura, Abqaiq and Rabigh, and Exxon and Chevron canceled plans to attend the Abu Dhabi oil conference. On the diplomatic side, Iran received a letter from VP Vance and a Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran for talks. Goldman’s commodities team estimates Brent embeds a $27/bbl geopolitical risk premium over its ~$85 fair value. Spot gold fell 0.8% to around $3,995, back below $4,000, silver dropped 2.6% to $50.88 and copper slipped as the tech selloff and oil rally dented risk appetite.
US economic data slate includes 3Q employment cost index (8:30am, est. 0.8%, prior 0.9%) and October MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, est. 56, prior 58.8). Fed speaker slate includes Barkin on Sirius XM (9:30am), Daly (12pm) and Musalem (12:30pm). On the earnings front, ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive, Regeneron, General Dynamics, LyondellBasell, Dominion Energy and Cboe report before the open.
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- Disappointing reports from technology heavyweights including Amazon.com have fueled fears over massive AI spending, with Nasdaq 100 constituents already wiping out more than $1.2 trillion in market capitalization this month. BBG
- Intel plummeted in late trading after its revenue forecast missed analysts’ estimates, hurt by a PC slump and supply snags. Amazon.com also dropped after reporting greater-than-anticipated capital spending and the slowest growth in the core e-commerce business in three years. BBG
- Binance estimated $6.3 billion in funds was impacted in crypto’s biggest-ever hack, which TRM Labs attributed to North Korea. The exchange suspended withdrawals and pledged to cover losses. Digital tokens fell. BBG
- Brent topped $117 on signs the US may resume strikes on Iran after the midterms. Qatari mediators returned to Tehran for deal talks coordinated with Washington. BBG
- Iran claims 2 oil tankers hit by incidents, stopped in Hormuz. BBG
- Vance messaged an Iranian hardliner, Mohsen Rezaei, and said he was prepared to meet in person to discuss a settlement to the war. WaPo
- The US reportedly informed mediators that Iran abandoning its nuclear programme is a prerequisite for negotiations: Al Arabiya citing sources. Mediators are discussing allowing inspectors access to Iranian nuclear sites in exchange for the release of some frozen funds.
- Exxon, Chevron cancel plans to attend Abu Dhabi oil conference. BBG
- The Bank of Japan has said that underlying inflation has reached its 2% target, in effect declaring victory in a war against deflation that had defined the Japanese economy for decades. The long-awaited breakthrough was announced on Friday in the BoJ’s quarterly outlook for economic activity and prices, which accompanied a decision to keep interest rates on hold at 1.25%. The rate decision, by an 8-1 margin, was widely expected by markets. FT
- The BOJ also announced it would step up the pace of ETF sales, accelerating the unwinding of its massive holdings. BBG
- The euro-area economy rose 0.4% in the third quarter, twice the pace analysts predicted, despite an unexpected 0.1% contraction in France. BBG
- Chinese stocks suffered their worst month in more than a decade as fading policy support for a weak economy and doubts over AI earnings deepened investor pessimism. BBG
- Ukraine’s military has paused its strikes against Russian oil refineries, people with knowledge of the operations said, after weeks of pressure from President Trump shook Kyiv’s confidence in U.S. support. WSJ
- The Pentagon is quietly preparing for a $400 billion cut to President Donald Trump’s military budget, as officials realize the president’s record-breaking request is effectively dead. Politico
- Donald Trump scrapped appearances in Republican-friendly Kansas and Iowa in the closing days before the midterms, shifting to tele-rallies as his party faces unexpectedly tough races in traditionally safe states. BBG
- Anthropic is SpaceX’s largest single customer, a person familiar with the matter said, accounting for more than a third of the revenue for Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence, satellite and rocket venture during the third quarter of this year. BBG
- Chevron 3Q adj EPS $5.28, est. $4.93. BBG
- Cursor AI said it has identified a security incident impacting a modified Claude Code extension, impacting up to 5k users.
- BofA weekly flow data shows USD 56.2bln into stocks, USD 15.4bln into bonds, USD 3.4bln into cash, USD 0.5bln out of crypto, USD 1.7bln out of gold. Bull & Bear Indicator fell to 7.1 (from 7.2).
- Goldman’s commodities team estimates Brent at ~$112 embeds a ~$27/bbl geopolitical risk premium over its ~$85/bbl fair value, noting “essentially all of the recent increase in crude prices reflects a higher risk premium rather than an increase in underlying fair value.” GS
- Retail investors poured record amounts into leveraged ETFs over the past couple of weeks, supporting the bottoming out of AI-related stocks, while short interest of the QQQ ETF rose to its highest level since 2023. JPM
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mixed amid notable tech weakness, with the sector further pressured following disappointing earnings from Amazon and Intel, while participants also digested a slew of data at month-end. ASX 200 traded higher as softer yields helped offset the losses in tech, consumer staples and mining. Nikkei 225 was pressured amid the tech woes, while participants also digested a slew of mixed data releases and the BoJ policy announcement, in which the central bank kept rates unchanged, declared reaching the price target and accelerated the pace of its ETF sales. KOSPI underperformed and triggered a sidecar after the recent weak big tech earnings stateside. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid a deluge of earnings and with Hong Kong outperforming as platform companies picked up the slack from chipmakers, while the mainland was subdued following a record number of purges at the Fifth Plenum.
Top Asian News
- PBoC maintained the overnight reverse repo rate at 1.25% (prev. 1.25%) and shifted 7-day reverse repo operations to fixed-quantity, rate-tender auctions with multiple winning prices. Said other liquidity tools, including temporary repos and offshore central bank repos, will be priced off the overnight reverse repo rate, while 7-day operations will primarily be conducted around tax periods and month-end.
European bourses are mixed to start the final trading session of the week, with the FTSE 100 (+0.2%) outperforming following positive earnings from AstraZeneca and BP, outweighing disappointment from NatWest. Starting with Astra (+3.3%), its Q3 adj. EPS and revenue beat estimates, with sales for its blockbusters Imfinzi and Tagrisso also higher than expected. As well as reconfirming FY guidance, the pharma giant announced a cost-savings plan over three years, which includes a USD 2bln one-time restructuring charge. For BP (+0.4%), its profit surged to the highest in 18 years, while its focus on cutting debt continues to pay off. To end with NatWest (-4.3%), despite the bank sticking with its FY guidance, its shares are under pressure, with some analysts pointing to a lack of certainty around earnings from interest in the coming years. Other key movers include: Sanofi +5.5%, upgrades its FY profit forecast as Dupixent sales top estimates; Credit Agricole -2.0%, a mixed report as capital missed estimates and loan losses rose; Audi, cuts its FY operating margin guidance; Evonik, rejects takeover talks with BASF; Puma +7.2%, narrows its 2026 operating loss guidance as Q3 sales beat expectations. US equity futures are mostly lower, with the NQ (-2.4%) sliding for another session after disappointing earnings from Amazon and Intel. For Amazon (-6.7% pre-market), its Q3 EPS and Q4 operating income guidance missed estimates while Intel’s (-25.8% pre-market) Q4 EPS and revenue guide missed consensus. NQ futures now slip below the 29k mark, as focus turns to the 200-SMA at 28.5k.
Top European News
- ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q4): Headline and core inflation expectations revised upwards for 2026 and 2027, owing primarily to higher energy prices and their indirect effects, with longer-term inflation expectations remaining anchored at 2.0%.
- BoE DMP (Oct): 1-year CPI expectation 3.3% (prev. 3.1%), 3-year CPI expectation 2.8% (prev. 2.8%). Year-ahead wage growth 3.4% (prev. 3.4%).
- Councils in England are in open revolt against changes to strip elected councillors of planning powers and hand decisions to unelected officials, according to The Times.
FX
- DXY is lower by 0.2% within a 101.56 to 101.91 range, following Thursday’s losses, which came alongside lower yields and the in-line PCE data, although the downside was contained by the better-than-expected Q3 GDP. Today’s US docket includes the Q3 Employment Cost Index at 12:30GMT/08:30EDT and Chicago PMI at 13:45GMT/09:45EDT, while Fed’s Barkin and Daly are due to speak, alongside Musalem, Hammack (dissenter) and Cook (surprise dissenter).
- USD/JPY sits towards the bottom end of a 157.12 to 157.90 range. The BoJ kept rates at 1.25%, as expected, in an 8-1 vote, with Takata proposing a hike to 1.5%; the Bank said underlying inflation has reached levels consistent with the price target and that risks to prices are skewed to the upside. It also set the pace of its ETF sales at around JPY 860bln a year from January, while the Fiscal 2027 Core CPI forecast was raised to 2.6% (prev. 2.4%). At his press conference, Governor Ueda said it is too early to declare the inflation target achieved and that the Bank will assess risks at every meeting, including December; USD/JPY fell 32 pips to 157.12 on the decision, before paring half of the move. USD/JPY was choppy within a 157.44 to 157.75 range during the presser. Overnight, Tokyo CPI was softer than expected at 2.8% Y/Y (exp. 3.3%), with Core in line at 2.6%. Thereafter, Japanese FinMin Katayama said it is about time to judge that the BoJ’s 2% inflation target has been largely achieved.
- EUR/USD is firmer and holds around the 1.1200 mark, within a 1.1171 to 1.1215 range, after gaining in the aftermath of Thursday’s ECB hold, with ECB source reports indicating policymakers are prepared to raise rates in December. This morning, ECB’s Simkus said holding rates does not mean there are no more hikes to come, while Rehn said the growth and inflation outlook is still very uncertain. French HICP was hotter than expected at 3.8% Y/Y (exp. 3.6%), though French Q3 GDP unexpectedly contracted 0.1% Q/Q (exp. +0.1%); Spanish CPI and GDP were in line. German Q3 GDP topped forecasts at 0.2% Q/Q (exp. 0.1%), while Italian GDP was flat (exp. 0.1% Q/Q), and the German state CPIs all cooled on a Y/Y basis (in line with the expectations for the national figure); EUR/USD saw little reaction to the above data.
- GBP/USD is firmer and holds above the 1.3400 handle, at the top end of a 1.3374 to 1.3433 range. EUR/GBP is lower within a 0.8340 to 0.8365 range, having printed a fresh 2026 low, with 0.8333 (equivalent to GBP/EUR 1.2000) the next level of note. UK Nationwide Housing Prices were flat M/M (exp. -0.1%), while the UK docket is light for the remainder of the session.
- The Antipodeans are mixed, with NZD/USD higher within a 0.5624 to 0.5649 range, and AUD/USD flat within a 0.7018 to 0.7043 range. RBNZ’s Hansen said a December hike is 50-50, while Silk is said to support a December hike if current conditions persist, Bloomberg reported.
- USD/CNH trades within a 6.6496 to 6.6576 range, printing a fresh 52-week low. The PBoC changed its 7-day reverse repo operations to fixed-quantity, rate-tender auctions, and said other tools will be priced off the overnight reverse repo rate, which was kept at 1.25%.
Central Banks
- BoJ kept rates unchanged at 1.25%, as expected, in an 8-1 vote with Takata the dissenter as he proposed raising the short-term interest rate target to 1.5%, but the proposal was rejected by the board, while it stated that underlying inflation has reached levels consistent with the price target and it will continue raising interest rates in response to economic and price developments, as well as financial conditions. BoJ said there is a risk that underlying inflation could overshoot the price target and that risks to prices are skewed to the upside, while it decided to sell ETF holdings at a scale of about 0.1% of market trading value with the pace of ETF sales set at around JPY 860bln per year on a book value basis from January and noted that ETF holdings sales would take about 43 years to complete, compared with approximately 112 years previously. In terms of the latest Outlook Report, the median forecast for Core CPI was maintained at 2.5% for Fiscal 2026, raised to 2.6% from 2.4% for Fiscal 2027 and maintained at 2.0% for Fiscal 2028, while forecasts for Real GDP were raised to 0.7% from 0.6% for Fiscal 2026, lowered to 0.7% from 0.8% for Fiscal 2027 and maintained at 0.8% for Fiscal 2028.
- In the press conference, BoJ Governor Ueda noted that he is aware there is still a gap between the neutral rate and the policy rate. On inflation, he said that all members agreed that underlying inflation has reached 2% but said it is too early to declare the inflation target achieved, as inflation must remain stably and sustainably around 2%. On ETF sales, Ueda said a faster pace of ETF sales would have only a limited market impact and that the Bank needs to respond appropriately to upside risks.
- ECB’s Nagel said they will act decisively if needed and that there are no significant second round effects thus far.
- ECB’s Simkus said that holding rates does not mean no more hikes to come, adding that the likelihood of energy spillover has risen, but noted they don’t see second round effects yet.
Fixed Income
- A firmer final session of the week so far for fixed, with benchmarks at/towards fresh WTD highs in the early morning, but since slipping just off those as energy continues to inch higher.
- Upside for the space is generally a function of the week’s major central banks not tightening and a tech sell-off, with the Fed, ECB and BoJ all on hold and to varying degrees outlining focus on the growth narrative and tighter financial market conditions, which could theoretically serve to limit the need for tightening ahead. However, all are on track for a hike by end-2026; currently, CME has a 74% implied chance of a December Fed hike, for instance.
- Policy aside, the other main focus point for today is geopolitics. The main update is a Qatari delegation arriving in Tehran for mediation efforts. Though given the dismissive approach US President Trump reportedly took to VP Vance’s outreach, and recent reporting keeping post-midterm strikes very much in play, it remains to be seen whether this effort can progress the situation.
- USTs are at a 106-27 high for the week, firmer by 14 ticks on the day at best.
- Bunds also bid, though off highs as Dutch TTF continues to climb. As it stands, firmer by about 10 ticks, but some 40 off the 122.64 WTD peak. As above, the path for the ECB is towards a December hike, but risks to tightening then, but more so thereafter, are present from the yield and growth backdrop; see Thursday’s post-meeting analysis for more.
- Gilts in-fitting with the above directionally, but as usual have been a touch more susceptible to the energy upside, with the benchmark back to flat at the time of publication, in 85.44 to 86.12 confines.
- Finally, OATs and BTPs are both under pressure this morning, weighed on by the firmer-than-expected preliminary inflation reads from the nations, and as EZ-wide growth for Q3 proves resilient. A combination that theoretically gives the ECB policy space to take action, while the inflation prints may well be revised higher given the marked energy upside, particularly in Dutch TTF, seen towards month-end.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks are firmer, after rebounding overnight as headlines continued to highlight a potential resumption of strikes on Iran after the midterm elections. WTI Dec’26 is higher within a USD 102.43-104.99/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 99.79-103.00/bbl range), while Brent Jan’27 trades within a USD 111.03-114.07/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 109.02-111.80/bbl range).
- In terms of geopolitics, a US official said the White House believes the chances of a settlement with Iran may be dwindling, although US envoy Barrack said Washington is very close to an agreement. Benchmarks dipped by around USD 0.65/bbl after Reuters reported that Qatari mediators will return to Tehran on Friday to help reach a US-Iran deal; Iranian state media later said the delegation has arrived. Elsewhere, and looking ahead, OPEC+ meets on Sunday, where sources said the group is expected to maintain its December production targets.
- Dutch TTF is higher by over 4% at the time of writing and holds above the EUR 100/MWh mark, within a EUR 98.68-102.03/MWh range.
- Spot gold is softer and holds just beneath USD 4,000/oz, within a USD 3,965-4,026/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 4,005-4,068/oz range). Spot silver is lower by 2.5% within a USD 50.44-52.24/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 51.97-54.40/oz range), while platinum and palladium futures are lower by 3.2% and 2.5%, respectively, at the time of writing. Base metals are mixed, with 3M LME copper in a narrow USD 14,244.80-14,379.13/t range.
- Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry affirmed no plan to release oil reserves in November as it expects to secure 100% of oil for November.
Trade/Tariffs
- China’s Foreign Ministry said China will take necessary measures to defend its rights in response to US FCC measures against Chinese firms.
- Chinese President Xi told the Swiss President that the upgraded trade agreement fully reflects both nations’ political courage and sense of responsibility in upholding open cooperation.
- EU’s Kallas said the EU’s relations with Canada are entering a new era and they will deepen ties on security and defence, trade, critical raw materials and digital, as well as bring their people closer together.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- US CENTCOM Commander Cooper briefed US President Trump on Thursday regarding the state of war with Iran, with a focus on the ongoing naval blockade, according to two senior officials, while it was separately reported that a top US admiral briefed Trump about Iran attack options, according to WSJ.
- US envoy Tom Barrack said Washington is very close to an agreement aimed at reducing tensions with Iran, citing mediation by Qatar, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, while he rejected the ‘greater Israel’ narrative and urged regional powers to take greater responsibility.
- US official said the White House believes the chances of reaching a settlement with Iran may be dwindling, while the official noted that Istanbul and Doha are the most likely locations if a meeting takes place between US VP Vance and Iran’s Rezaei, according to the Washington Post.
- The US reportedly informed mediators that Iran abandoning its nuclear programme is a prerequisite for negotiations, according to Al Arabiya citing sources. Mediators are discussing allowing inspectors access to Iranian nuclear sites in exchange for the release of some frozen funds.
- Qatari mediators reportedly returned to Tehran on Friday to advance efforts towards a US-Iran agreement, with talks coordinated with Washington, according to Reuters citing an official briefed on the negotiations. More recently, Iranian press confirmed that a Qatari delegation has arrived in Tehran.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Baghaei said blaming Iran for the consequences of US military aggression is mitigation and whitewashing of crimes.
- UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 25 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman, in the Strait of Hormuz, with a vessel, although the cause was unknown at the time of the report.
- IRNA correspondent reported several explosions were heard coming from the direction of the sea and in the sky and waters around Iran’s Qeshm Island, while reports also noted that four explosions were heard in Iran’s Jask, although the cause was unknown.
- Explosions and flashes reported near the Strait of Hormuz, while local sources were linking the sounds to vessel warning shots, according to Fars and Al Jazeera.
- Yemen military warned Houthis against using prohibited combat weapons, while its Defence Ministry was investigating Houthi use of toxic gas in Taiz.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- US Pentagon officials have reportedly urged several NATO allies, including Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, to tone down public rhetoric regarding the threat posed by Russia, arguing that some European statements undermine continental security, according to Reuters sources. Messages were delivered in bilateral meetings, although it remains unclear whether other European governments received similar requests.
- Ukraine’s military paused its strikes against Russian oil refineries after weeks of pressure from US President Trump shook Kyiv’s confidence in US support, according to WSJ citing people with knowledge of the operations.
- Russia conducted strikes on military and energy facilities in Ukraine’s Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, while it struck port facilities in Odesa and cargo vessels, according to its Defence Ministry.
- Russian Kremlin aide Ushakov said no date has been set yet for Russia-US-Ukraine talks, Interfax reported.
Geopolitics: Other
- South Korean National Security Advisor said South Korea is to firmly respond to North Korea’s crossing of the military demarcation line, and stated that Seoul is continuing to provide support for Ukraine as part of the international community.
- North Korean leader Kim called for North Korea to seize absolute superiority in drone technology.
Crypto
- Bitcoin slips below USD 78k and briefly dipped below USD 77k after Binance said it suffered a USD 6.3bln hack, prompting the exchange to suspend all withdrawals and pledge to cover customer losses. Binance said around USD 3bln in stolen assets have been frozen on blockchain networks, with withdrawals expected to resume by Sunday.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: 3Q Employment Cost Index, est. 0.8%, prior 0.9%
- 09:45: Oct MNI Chicago PMI, est. 56, prior 58.8
Central Bank Speakers
- 09:30: Fed’s Barkin Appears on Sirius XM
- 12:00: Fed’s Daly Gives Introductory Remarks
- 12:30: Fed’s Musalem Delivers Keynote Address
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Morning from a cabin in a forest in the middle of nowhere. As the world debates the arrival of AGI and superintelligence, I’m moving around my lodge trying to eke out a WiFi or 4G signal. It’s as painful as the harness I was strapped into yesterday to do a big zip wire over a lake! Talking of technology, as expected big tech earnings have been more influential this week than central banks. Alphabet (-12.64%) saw it worst day on record yesterday after results which weighed down the S&P (-0.30%) even though 406 stocks in the index advanced. After the bell disappointing results from Amazon and Intel added to the souring tech mood, and Nasdaq futures are currently -1.86% lower after the cash index closed -1.38% last night. The tech selloff has supported Treasuries, with 10yr yields (-8.0bps) falling to their lowest level in 6 weeks at 4.94% and edging to 4.923% this morning. By contrast, in Europe the DAX (+1.31%), CAC 40 (+1.05%) and Stoxx 600 (+0.77%) all advanced, supported by upbeat earnings and a slightly dovish ECB on-hold decision. A retreat in energy prices also supported European bonds yesterday, but oil prices have moved higher again overnight on fresh concerns about US-Iran escalation.
So a lot going on. Let’s start with those after-hours earnings. Amazon’s Q3 net sales fell just short of analyst expectations ($201.94bn vs $202.26bn est.) while spending on property and equipment soared in the quarter ($77bn vs $59bn est.). So while cloud revenue growth was a touch above expectations, this was insufficient to ease concerns about the rising capex spend, and Amazon’s shares slumped by -7% in extended trading. If that move is replicated in today’s regular session, it would leave the stock marginally down year-to-date. Meanwhile, Intel plunged by -23% after-hours after its Q4 revenue guidance missed estimates ($15-16bn vs $17.05n est.). In addition to sending Nasdaq (-1.86%) and S&P 500 (-0.89%) futures lower, these earnings have exacerbated the sell-off in Asia this morning, with the KOSPI (-3.99%) and Nikkei (-2.22%) sliding.
This follows a weaker US session as Alphabet (-12.64%) posted its biggest drop on record after underwhelming results the night before, which left its share price -9.32% YTD. The S&P 500 (-0.30%) was underpinned by 406 stocks advancing and the equal weight index (+1.21%) rose to its highest level since August. So it was a concentrated tech led sell-off with the Nasdaq (-1.38%), Magnificent 7 (-1.83%) and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (-1.42%) all substantially lower. Tech underperformers also included CoreWeave (-4.99%) and Oracle (-3.45%). In other tech news, Microsoft completed a $25bn bond offering, becoming the last of the US hyperscalers to turn to debt markets this year. The sale marked Microsoft’s first major bond issuance since 2017.
The subdued US performance stood in contrast to Europe, where equities rallied after a slate of upbeat earnings, including those from Adidas (+5.76%) and Shell (+2.16%). That in turn pushed several indices higher, including the DAX (+131%), CAC 40 (+1.05%) and Stoxx 600 (+0.77%).
Turning to rates, the correction in the AI trade was a boon for Treasuries, with both 2yr (-9.8bps to 4.60%) and 10yr (-8.0bps to 4.94%) yields falling to their lowest levels since mid-September. The decline in Treasury yields came despite a strong batch of US data yesterday. Among them was the advance Q3 GDP print, which showed the economy expanding at a +3.4% q/q annualised rate (+3.2% exp.), up from +2.2%q/q in Q2. And the labour market remained resilient too, as weekly initial jobless claims edged down to 194k (vs. 198k exp.). Remarkably, that took the 4-week average in initial claims down to their lowest level since October 1969, at 196.75k. So the data bolstered Warsh’s bullish growth assessment from Wednesday during the FOMC. Meanwhile, the September PCE report showed headline PCE inflation +0.5%m/m (+0.3% m/m prior) and +3.6% y/y (+3.4%y/y prior). Core PCE came in at +0.3%m/m (+0.2%m/m prior) and +3.1%y/y (+3.0%y/y prior), all in line with expectations.
Over in Europe, the focus was on the ECB meeting where ECB President Christine Lagarde announced plans to step down as President by Feb 7. The news that she might step down early had long been expected, even if its timing was not previously known. She’ll now only have the December and early February meetings left. Importantly, this does mean French President Macron will be involved in the decision on the next ECB leader, as opposed to the next incoming French President. It also opens the door for her to play some role in the French election campaign, with Lagarde saying she was leaving early to have the freedom to speak on matters away from monetary policy. Our economists expect that the leadership change should not have much short-term impact on the direction of ECB policy.
In terms of the ECB decision itself, the ECB kept rates on hold at 2.50%, as widely expected, with President Lagarde striking a balanced tone but signalling that “the direction of travel” is towards another hike in December. The decision press release tilted a bit dovish, noting that “underlying inflation has remained broadly stable so far” and that tighter financial conditions were “likely to weigh on inflation and growth”. That said, the near-term dovish read across was largely offset by President Lagarde in the press conference. She suggested that yesterday was a “no hiking decision” as the ECB could afford to wait for more information, while implying that a December hike is the clear baseline absent a surprise over the next six weeks. Overall, our economists see yesterday’s decision as reducing the risk of rates going to 3% or beyond, in line with their view of 2.75% being the likely terminal rate. See their reaction note here.
So while pricing of a December rate hike was little change at 84% yesterday, money markets dialed back prospects of 2027 ECB hikes, with 64bps of hikes now priced by next September (-10bps on the day). That meant front-end bonds rallied with 2yr OAT (-7.1bps), BTP (-7.9bps) and bund (-5.3bps) yields falling. Bonds were also helped by decline in energy costs, with European natural gas futures down -2.12% to EUR 98.59/MWh after reaching their highest level since 2022 on Wednesday. Yields on 10yr bunds (-1.5bps), BTPs (-2.0bps) and gilts (-2.7bps) also all declined, though OATs (-0.1bps) underperformed, with the 10yr OAT-Bund spread rising back to 156bps.
Staying on the energy front, oil prices have had a volatile 24 hours, with Brent crude trading +1.07% higher at around $116.11/bbl as I type, after almost reaching $118 overnight. Brent had fallen as low as $113 yesterday after Semafor reported that the White House was involved in ongoing negotiations centered on a temporary peace deal with Iran. However, we then saw contrasting news later in the US session, with the WSJ reporting that a top US admiral has briefed Trump on military options against Iran. Meanwhile, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said that Iran would not compromise on its position for ending the conflict, which comes after the WSJ reported the previous day that US Vice President Vance had reached out to Iran’s top security official to revive talks.
Now to the rest of Asia, and the BOJ left rates unchanged at 1.25%, in line with expectations, with eight of the nine board members voting in favour of the decision. Board member Hajime Takata was the lone dissenter, advocating for a 25bp rate increase. The central bank also noted that underlying consumer inflation has now reached its 2% target and is expected to remain around that level. In a surprise announcement, the BOJ said it would nearly triple the pace of sales of its ETF holdings from January, increasing annual disposals to an estimated ¥860bn ($5.5bn). At this pace, the process would take roughly 43 years to complete, compared with more than 110 years under the previous schedule. Probably beyond the natural life of the EMR regardless of the pace!
Focus now turns to Governor Ueda’s press conference which will start after we go to press, where markets will be looking for further guidance on the timing and pace of future rate hikes. Following the interest rate decision, the Japanese yen (+0.22%) is strengthening higher for the third straight session trading at 157.38 against the dollar as we go to print. Staying with Japan, early morning data showed that Tokyo CPI rose +2.6% y/y, below September’s +2.7% increase and in line with market expectations while core-core CPI rose +2.6% annually, after a +2.9% increase the previous month.
As we mentioned at the top, tech sensitive Asian indices are notably lower but other markets are more mixed with the CSI 300 (-0.27%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.19%) edging lower, while the Hang Seng (+1.75%) is outperforming seemingly on a short covering rally on those stocks that had funded the AI rotation trade.
In other overnight news, crypto assets have come under pressure after Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, suspended deposits and withdrawals following a suspected hacking incident. Bitcoin is down -0.40% this morning, following a -3.03% slide yesterday.
Finally, today we will get October flash inflation releases for France, Spain, Germany and Italy, ahead of the Euro Area aggregate next Wednesday. Our European economists expect inflation to rise in Italy and France, while easing slightly in Germany and Spain. Based on that, they expect the Euro Area aggregate to see headline HICP rising to 3.90% YoY in October (3.77% prev), while core HICP is likely to remain little changed at 2.5%, as marginal upside pressures from core goods are expected to be offset by a slight easing in services. You can read their full preview here. Over the pond we’ll also see the US Q3 employment cost index. Earnings today include ExxonMobil and Chevron.
END
1b European opening report
Amazon and Intel disappoint, further weighing on NQ futures; Qatari delegation arrives in Tehran – Newsquawk US Market Open
Friday, Oct 30, 2026 – 06:55 AM
- A Qatari delegation has arrived in Tehran to advance efforts towards a US-Iran agreement.
- The US reportedly informed mediators that Iran abandoning its nuclear programme is a prerequisite for negotiations, according to Al Arabiya.
- BoJ left rates unchanged, with Governor Ueda leaving the door open for a hike in December.
- NQ futures extend its drop following disappointing Amazon and Intel earnings.
- DXY is slightly softer; EUR firmer but unfazed amid a busy EZ data docket.
- Fixed income benchmarks are firmer despite higher energy prices (Brent +2.7%).
- Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI Flash (Oct), Canadian GDP (Aug), CBRT Minutes (Oct). Speakers include ECB’s Lane, Fed’s Musalem, Daly, Barkin, Hammack & Cook. Earnings from AbbVie & Colgate-Palmolive.
Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are mixed to start the final trading session of the week, with the FTSE 100 (+0.2%) outperforming following positive earnings from AstraZeneca and BP, outweighing disappointment from NatWest. Starting with Astra (+3.3%), its Q3 adj. EPS and revenue beat estimates, with sales for its blockbusters Imfinzi and Tagrisso also higher than expected. As well as reconfirming FY guidance, the pharma giant announced a cost-savings plan over three years, which includes a USD 2bln one-time restructuring charge. For BP (+0.4%), its profit surged to the highest in 18 years, while its focus on cutting debt continues to pay off. To end with NatWest (-4.3%), despite the bank sticking with its FY guidance, its shares are under pressure, with some analysts pointing to a lack of certainty around earnings from interest in the coming years.
- Other key movers include: Sanofi +5.5%, upgrades its FY profit forecast as Dupixent sales top estimates; Credit Agricole -2.0%, a mixed report as capital missed estimates and loan losses rose; Audi, cuts its FY operating margin guidance; Evonik, rejects takeover talks with BASF; Puma +7.2%, narrows its 2026 operating loss guidance as Q3 sales beat expectations.
- US equity futures are mostly lower, with the NQ (-2.4%) sliding for another session after disappointing earnings from Amazon and Intel. For Amazon (-6.7% pre-market), its Q3 EPS and Q4 operating income guidance missed estimates while Intel’s (-25.8% pre-market) Q4 EPS and revenue guide missed consensus. NQ futures now slip below the 29k mark, as focus turns to the 200-SMA at 28.5k.
- Amazon (AMZN) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 1.89 (exp. 1.97), Sales 201.9bln (exp. 202.2bln), sees Q4 Oper. income 28.5bln-33.5bln (exp. 33.2bln), sales 240bln-247bln (exp. 244.2bln).
- Intel (INTC) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.52 (exp. 0.41), Revenue 16.5bln (exp. 16.6bln), sees Q4 Adj. EPS 0.25 (exp. 0.44), Revenue 15bln-16bln (exp. 17.1bln).
- Click for the session’s European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
FX
- DXY is lower by 0.2% within a 101.56 to 101.91 range, following Thursday’s losses, which came alongside lower yields and the in-line PCE data, although the downside was contained by the better-than-expected Q3 GDP. Today’s US docket includes the Q3 Employment Cost Index at 12:30GMT/08:30EDT and Chicago PMI at 13:45GMT/09:45EDT, while Fed’s Barkin and Daly are due to speak, alongside Musalem, Hammack (dissenter) and Cook (surprise dissenter).
- USD/JPY sits towards the bottom end of a 157.12 to 157.90 range. The BoJ kept rates at 1.25%, as expected, in an 8-1 vote, with Takata proposing a hike to 1.5%; the Bank said underlying inflation has reached levels consistent with the price target and that risks to prices are skewed to the upside. It also set the pace of its ETF sales at around JPY 860bln a year from January, while the Fiscal 2027 Core CPI forecast was raised to 2.6% (prev. 2.4%). At his press conference, Governor Ueda said it is too early to declare the inflation target achieved and that the Bank will assess risks at every meeting, including December; USD/JPY fell 32 pips to 157.12 on the decision, before paring half of the move. USD/JPY was choppy within a 157.44 to 157.75 range during the presser. Overnight, Tokyo CPI was softer than expected at 2.8% Y/Y (exp. 3.3%), with Core in line at 2.6%. Thereafter, Japanese FinMin Katayama said it is about time to judge that the BoJ’s 2% inflation target has been largely achieved.
- EUR/USD is firmer and holds around the 1.1200 mark, within a 1.1171 to 1.1215 range, after gaining in the aftermath of Thursday’s ECB hold, with ECB source reports indicating policymakers are prepared to raise rates in December. This morning, ECB’s Simkus said holding rates does not mean there are no more hikes to come, while Rehn said the growth and inflation outlook is still very uncertain. French HICP was hotter than expected at 3.8% Y/Y (exp. 3.6%), though French Q3 GDP unexpectedly contracted 0.1% Q/Q (exp. +0.1%); Spanish CPI and GDP were in line. German Q3 GDP topped forecasts at 0.2% Q/Q (exp. 0.1%), while Italian GDP was flat (exp. 0.1% Q/Q), and the German state CPIs all cooled on a Y/Y basis (in line with the expectations for the national figure); EUR/USD saw little reaction to the above data.
- GBP/USD is firmer and holds above the 1.3400 handle, at the top end of a 1.3374 to 1.3433 range. EUR/GBP is lower within a 0.8340 to 0.8365 range, having printed a fresh 2026 low, with 0.8333 (equivalent to GBP/EUR 1.2000) the next level of note. UK Nationwide Housing Prices were flat M/M (exp. -0.1%), while the UK docket is light for the remainder of the session.
- The Antipodeans are mixed, with NZD/USD higher within a 0.5624 to 0.5649 range, and AUD/USD flat within a 0.7018 to 0.7043 range. RBNZ’s Hansen said a December hike is 50-50, while Silk is said to support a December hike if current conditions persist, Bloomberg reported.
- USD/CNH trades within a 6.6496 to 6.6576 range, printing a fresh 52-week low. The PBoC changed its 7-day reverse repo operations to fixed-quantity, rate-tender auctions, and said other tools will be priced off the overnight reverse repo rate, which was kept at 1.25%.
FIXED INCOME
- A firmer final session of the week so far for fixed, with benchmarks at/towards fresh WTD highs in the early morning, but since slipping just off those as energy continues to inch higher.
- Upside for the space is generally a function of the week’s major central banks not tightening and a tech sell-off, with the Fed, ECB and BoJ all on hold and to varying degrees outlining focus on the growth narrative and tighter financial market conditions, which could theoretically serve to limit the need for tightening ahead. However, all are on track for a hike by end-2026; currently, CME has a 74% implied chance of a December Fed hike, for instance.
- Policy aside, the other main focus point for today is geopolitics. The main update is a Qatari delegation arriving in Tehran for mediation efforts. Though given the dismissive approach US President Trump reportedly took to VP Vance’s outreach, and recent reporting keeping post-midterm strikes very much in play, it remains to be seen whether this effort can progress the situation.
- USTs are at a 106-27 high for the week, firmer by 14 ticks on the day at best.
- Bunds also bid, though off highs as Dutch TTF continues to climb. As it stands, firmer by about 10 ticks, but some 40 off the 122.64 WTD peak. As above, the path for the ECB is towards a December hike, but risks to tightening then, but more so thereafter, are present from the yield and growth backdrop; see Thursday’s post-meeting analysis for more.
- Gilts in-fitting with the above directionally, but as usual have been a touch more susceptible to the energy upside, with the benchmark back to flat at the time of publication, in 85.44 to 86.12 confines.
- Finally, OATs and BTPs are both under pressure this morning, weighed on by the firmer-than-expected preliminary inflation reads from the nations, and as EZ-wide growth for Q3 proves resilient. A combination that theoretically gives the ECB policy space to take action, while the inflation prints may well be revised higher given the marked energy upside, particularly in Dutch TTF, seen towards month-end.
COMMODITIES
- Crude benchmarks are firmer, after rebounding overnight as headlines continued to highlight a potential resumption of strikes on Iran after the midterm elections. WTI Dec’26 is higher within a USD 102.43-104.99/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 99.79-103.00/bbl range), while Brent Jan’27 trades within a USD 111.03-114.07/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 109.02-111.80/bbl range).
- In terms of geopolitics, a US official said the White House believes the chances of a settlement with Iran may be dwindling, although US envoy Barrack said Washington is very close to an agreement. Benchmarks dipped by around USD 0.65/bbl after Reuters reported that Qatari mediators will return to Tehran on Friday to help reach a US-Iran deal; Iranian state media later said the delegation has arrived. Elsewhere, and looking ahead, OPEC+ meets on Sunday, where sources said the group is expected to maintain its December production targets.
- Dutch TTF is higher by over 4% at the time of writing and holds above the EUR 100/MWh mark, within a EUR 98.68-102.03/MWh range.
- Spot gold is softer and holds just beneath USD 4,000/oz, within a USD 3,965-4,026/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 4,005-4,068/oz range). Spot silver is lower by 2.5% within a USD 50.44-52.24/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 51.97-54.40/oz range), while platinum and palladium futures are lower by 3.2% and 2.5%, respectively, at the time of writing. Base metals are mixed, with 3M LME copper in a narrow USD 14,244.80-14,379.13/t range.
- Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry affirmed no plan to release oil reserves in November as it expects to secure 100% of oil for November.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- China’s Foreign Ministry said China will take necessary measures to defend its rights in response to US FCC measures against Chinese firms.
- Chinese President Xi told the Swiss President that the upgraded trade agreement fully reflects both nations’ political courage and sense of responsibility in upholding open cooperation.
- EU’s Kallas said the EU’s relations with Canada are entering a new era and they will deepen ties on security and defence, trade, critical raw materials and digital, as well as bring their people closer together.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q4): Headline and core inflation expectations revised upwards for 2026 and 2027, owing primarily to higher energy prices and their indirect effects, with longer-term inflation expectations remaining anchored at 2.0%.
- BoE DMP (Oct): 1-year CPI expectation 3.3% (prev. 3.1%), 3-year CPI expectation 2.8% (prev. 2.8%). Year-ahead wage growth 3.4% (prev. 3.4%).
- Councils in England are in open revolt against changes to strip elected councillors of planning powers and hand decisions to unelected officials, according to The Times.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- European GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q3 QQ) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.6%).
- European GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q3 YY) 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1.2%).
- German GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q3 QQ) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%).
- German GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q3 YY) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1.0%).
- German Saxony CPI (Oct YY) 2.8% (Prev. 3.4%).
- German Saxony CPI (Oct MM) -0.2% (Prev. 0.6%).
- German Import Prices (Sep MM) 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.0%).
- German Import Prices (Sep YY) 10.4% vs. Exp. 10.3% (Prev. 8.3%).
- French HICP Preliminary (Oct YY) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.4%).
- French HICP Preliminary (Oct MM) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.3%).
- French GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q3 QQ) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.0%).
- French GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q3 YY) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.5%).
- Spanish HICP Preliminary (Oct YY) 4.9% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 5.0%).
- Spanish HICP Preliminary (Oct MM) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.6%).
- Spanish GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q3 YY) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.6%).
- Spanish GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q3 QQ) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.7%).
- Italian HICP Preliminary (Oct YY) 5.6% vs. Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 4.2%).
- Italian HICP Preliminary (Oct MM) 1.2% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 2.1%).
- Italian GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q3 QQ) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.2%).
- Italian GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q3 YY) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 1.0%).
- UK Nationwide Housing Prices (Oct MM) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.2%).
- UK Nationwide Housing Prices (Oct YY) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.8%).
- UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Oct) 47 (Prev. 41).
CENTRAL BANKS
- BoJ kept rates unchanged at 1.25%, as expected, in an 8-1 vote with Takata the dissenter as he proposed raising the short-term interest rate target to 1.5%, but the proposal was rejected by the board, while it stated that underlying inflation has reached levels consistent with the price target and it will continue raising interest rates in response to economic and price developments, as well as financial conditions. BoJ said there is a risk that underlying inflation could overshoot the price target and that risks to prices are skewed to the upside, while it decided to sell ETF holdings at a scale of about 0.1% of market trading value with the pace of ETF sales set at around JPY 860bln per year on a book value basis from January and noted that ETF holdings sales would take about 43 years to complete, compared with approximately 112 years previously. In terms of the latest Outlook Report, the median forecast for Core CPI was maintained at 2.5% for Fiscal 2026, raised to 2.6% from 2.4% for Fiscal 2027 and maintained at 2.0% for Fiscal 2028, while forecasts for Real GDP were raised to 0.7% from 0.6% for Fiscal 2026, lowered to 0.7% from 0.8% for Fiscal 2027 and maintained at 0.8% for Fiscal 2028.
- In the press conference, BoJ Governor Ueda noted that he is aware there is still a gap between the neutral rate and the policy rate. On inflation, he said that all members agreed that underlying inflation has reached 2% but said it is too early to declare the inflation target achieved, as inflation must remain stably and sustainably around 2%. On ETF sales, Ueda said a faster pace of ETF sales would have only a limited market impact and that the Bank needs to respond appropriately to upside risks.
- ECB’s Nagel said they will act decisively if needed and that there are no significant second round effects thus far.
- ECB’s Simkus said that holding rates does not mean no more hikes to come, adding that the likelihood of energy spillover has risen, but noted they don’t see second round effects yet.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump posted “lINFLATION IS WAY DOWN UNDER “TRUMP.” INCOME FOR PEOPLE & COMPANIES IS WAY UP! The Golden Age of America Is Upon Us.”
- US President Trump cancelled weekend rallies in Iowa and Kansas, opting instead to support Republican candidates with telerallies that his party said could reach more voters in nearly two dozen states in the final days before the midterm elections, according to CBS.
- Cursor AI said it has identified a security incident impacting a modified Claude Code extension, impacting up to 5k users.
- BofA weekly flow data shows USD 56.2bln into stocks, USD 15.4bln into bonds, USD 3.4bln into cash, USD 0.5bln out of crypto, USD 1.7bln out of gold. Bull & Bear Indicator fell to 7.1 (from 7.2).
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US CENTCOM Commander Cooper briefed US President Trump on Thursday regarding the state of war with Iran, with a focus on the ongoing naval blockade, according to two senior officials, while it was separately reported that a top US admiral briefed Trump about Iran attack options, according to WSJ.
- US envoy Tom Barrack said Washington is very close to an agreement aimed at reducing tensions with Iran, citing mediation by Qatar, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, while he rejected the ‘greater Israel’ narrative and urged regional powers to take greater responsibility.
- US official said the White House believes the chances of reaching a settlement with Iran may be dwindling, while the official noted that Istanbul and Doha are the most likely locations if a meeting takes place between US VP Vance and Iran’s Rezaei, according to the Washington Post.
- The US reportedly informed mediators that Iran abandoning its nuclear programme is a prerequisite for negotiations, according to Al Arabiya citing sources. Mediators are discussing allowing inspectors access to Iranian nuclear sites in exchange for the release of some frozen funds.
- Qatari mediators reportedly returned to Tehran on Friday to advance efforts towards a US-Iran agreement, with talks coordinated with Washington, according to Reuters citing an official briefed on the negotiations. More recently, Iranian press confirmed that a Qatari delegation has arrived in Tehran.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Baghaei said blaming Iran for the consequences of US military aggression is mitigation and whitewashing of crimes.
- UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 25 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman, in the Strait of Hormuz, with a vessel, although the cause was unknown at the time of the report.
- IRNA correspondent reported several explosions were heard coming from the direction of the sea and in the sky and waters around Iran’s Qeshm Island, while reports also noted that four explosions were heard in Iran’s Jask, although the cause was unknown.
- Explosions and flashes reported near the Strait of Hormuz, while local sources were linking the sounds to vessel warning shots, according to Fars and Al Jazeera.
- Yemen military warned Houthis against using prohibited combat weapons, while its Defence Ministry was investigating Houthi use of toxic gas in Taiz.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US Pentagon officials have reportedly urged several NATO allies, including Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, to tone down public rhetoric regarding the threat posed by Russia, arguing that some European statements undermine continental security, according to Reuters sources. Messages were delivered in bilateral meetings, although it remains unclear whether other European governments received similar requests.
- Ukraine’s military paused its strikes against Russian oil refineries after weeks of pressure from US President Trump shook Kyiv’s confidence in US support, according to WSJ citing people with knowledge of the operations.
- Russia conducted strikes on military and energy facilities in Ukraine’s Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, while it struck port facilities in Odesa and cargo vessels, according to its Defence Ministry.
- Russian Kremlin aide Ushakov said no date has been set yet for Russia-US-Ukraine talks, Interfax reported.
OTHER
- South Korean National Security Advisor said South Korea is to firmly respond to North Korea’s crossing of the military demarcation line, and stated that Seoul is continuing to provide support for Ukraine as part of the international community.
- North Korean leader Kim called for North Korea to seize absolute superiority in drone technology.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin slips below USD 78k and briefly dipped below USD 77k after Binance said it suffered a USD 6.3bln hack, prompting the exchange to suspend all withdrawals and pledge to cover customer losses. Binance said around USD 3bln in stolen assets have been frozen on blockchain networks, with withdrawals expected to resume by Sunday.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mixed amid notable tech weakness, with the sector further pressured following disappointing earnings from Amazon and Intel, while participants also digested a slew of data at month-end.
- ASX 200 traded higher as softer yields helped offset the losses in tech, consumer staples and mining.
- Nikkei 225 was pressured amid the tech woes, while participants also digested a slew of mixed data releases and the BoJ policy announcement, in which the central bank kept rates unchanged, declared reaching the price target and accelerated the pace of its ETF sales.
- KOSPI underperformed and triggered a sidecar after the recent weak big tech earnings stateside.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid a deluge of earnings and with Hong Kong outperforming as platform companies picked up the slack from chipmakers, while the mainland was subdued following a record number of purges at the Fifth Plenum.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC maintained the overnight reverse repo rate at 1.25% (prev. 1.25%) and shifted 7-day reverse repo operations to fixed-quantity, rate-tender auctions with multiple winning prices. Said other liquidity tools, including temporary repos and offshore central bank repos, will be priced off the overnight reverse repo rate, while 7-day operations will primarily be conducted around tax periods and month-end.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Japanese Tokyo CPI (Oct YY) 2.8% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 2.7%).
- Japanese Tokyo Core CPI (Oct YY) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.7%).
- Japanese Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (Oct YY) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%).
- Japanese Unemployment Rate (Sep) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.5%).
- Japanese Retail Sales (Sep MM) -0.7% (Prev. -1.2%).
- Japanese Retail Sales (Sep YY) 2.3% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 2.9%).
- Japanese Industrial Production Prel (Sep MM) 2.2% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. -2.4%).
- Japanese Industrial Production Prel (Sep YY) 1.9% (Prev. 2.7%).
- Australian PPI (Q3 YY) 3.6% (Prev. 3.6%).
- Australian PPI (Q3 QQ) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.3%).
- South Korean Industrial Production (Sep MM) 9.0% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. -4.6%).
- South Korean Retail Sales (Sep MM) 3.6% (Prev. -1.8%).
1c) Asian opening report
end
2.NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA
North Korea Blamed For $6.3 Billion Binance Heist: “Stole 19% Of Its Yearly Income In 20 Minutes”
Friday, Oct 30, 2026 – 07:39 AM
Summary:
- North Korea stole 19% of its yearly income in about 20 minutes.
- Bitcoin plunged to a six-week low of $76,348
- Reuters Puts Theft Figure At $6.3 Billion
- TRM Labs and Chainalysis Blame North Korea “Elite Hackers”
- Crypto Rattled By Binance Hack; Tether, Circle Freeze Billions In Stablecoins
North Korea Gets Binance Hack Blame
Blockchain analysis firms TRM Labs and Chainalysis have high confidence that North Korea was responsible for the brazen hack of Binance, with the latest figures reported by Reuters putting the theft at around $6.3 billion.
Rand Group wrote on X, “BINANCE HACK: North Korea stole 19% of its yearly income in about 20 minutes.”
The world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange pledged to cover customer losses using its protection fund and company resources. About $3 billion of the stolen assets had been located, with roughly half the haul frozen by stablecoin issuers including Tether, Circle and World Liberty Financial.
“TRM attributes the attack to … North Korea’s elite hacking unit,” the US blockchain intelligence firm said. Both TRM and Chainalysis said they were highly confident North Korea was responsible, according to the Reuters report.
Bitcoin plunged to a six-week low of $76,348 late Thursday night, down from $81,877 around lunchtime in New York earlier that day. That’s a decline of about 6.8%.
Crypto-linked stocks were clobbered in premarket trading. Hut 8 and Galaxy Digital each fell 7%, while Cipher Digital dropped nearly 7%. Robinhood Markets and Strategy each slid 6%, Riot Platforms lost 5.9%, CleanSpark declined 5.7%, and MARA Holdings fell 5.5%.
Aravind Srinivasan at market maker GSR described the Binance hack as “the biggest hack in history.”
Canaccord Genuity fintech and digital-assets analyst Joseph Vafi adds more color:
Last night, Binance disclosed a major breach of Binance 14, a hot wallet used by the company to consolidate and manage user deposits on the Ethereum network. While ~$5-6B in hacked funds is material, the Binance balance sheet, reportedly ~$150B, can cover any losses. What is more important is this hack’s impact on the broader digital assets ecosystem moving forward.
First, neither Bitcoin nor Ethereum was hacked; rather, a vulnerability was found in the core security stack that manages fund movement at Binance. The underlying value proposition of native coins is not the issue here. Binance has the balance sheet to cover such an incident, but smaller exchanges would not.
It should also be noted that both Tether and Circle were able to freeze approximately $2.3B in stablecoins that were part of the breach. We believe this was achievable in part due to the fact that stablecoins are not issued by a decentralized blockchain but by a centralized issuer. Thus, they can be tracked and frozen if need be. This stands in stark contrast to other blockchain-native assets, such as BTC and ETH, which are issued in a truly decentralized manner and thus can be much more difficult to trace and cannot be frozen. And while the stablecoins might be recoverable, they were also likely immediately used as collateral to borrow ETH across DeFi apps. And that ETH, if sold across blockchains such as TornadoCash, is not easily traceable. Thus, while the stablecoins were frozen and recoverable, the counterparties on the other side of the ETH borrowing transactions could lose out.
Ironically, the industry has touted decentralization as a key security aspect of public blockchains. And while that is true at the conceptual level, what is happening again and again is that a bespoke software stack is breached, and then full decentralization works against you in terms of asset traceability.
The digital assets industry has confronted and overcome much larger issues than this one, and we believe it will do so again. So what makes sense from here? Since inception, crypto has been about anonymous, decentralized ecosystems. We see the next evolution for digital assets as the tokenization of real-world assets, and a lot of this will not be transacted on permissionless networks. Privacy and security are table stakes for traditional finance, and thus the decentralized blockchain, while inherently secure, lacks centralized authority for things like asset freezing and traceability.
So where is the silver lining? Against this backdrop, somewhat centralized L1s such as Circle’s Arc and the Canton Network make a lot of sense to us. Transactions are still almost instantaneous, but control of the networks sits with a key group of industry-chosen validators. We think this is the best compromise structure and the way forward for mainstream blockchain at this point.
Finally, adding traceability to Bitcoin would deliver benefits that far outweigh the compromises, at least in our view. Maybe easier BTC traceability would be enough for the US Congress to pass Clarity. Maybe it would help bring crypto further into mainstream traditional finance. Maybe it would help bring Bitcoin into a post-quantum state. Time will tell, but it seems to us that so many of the benefits of blockchain are being repeatedly exploited in a fully permissionless and decentralized environment.
Crypto Rattled By Possible Binance Hack; Tether, Circle Freeze Billions In Stablecoins
Binance said Thursday it is investigating a “potential security issue” after billions of dollars in crypto left its exchange wallets, and the issuers of the two largest dollar stablecoins say they have frozen well over $1 billion of it. The exchange has not said how much was taken, how, or whether it was a hack.
“Our teams are aware of reports of a potential security issue and are actively investigating,” Binance said in a post on X. “User funds are completely safe.” FinanceFeeds, which reviewed the post’s edit history, reports that Binance changed it twice. The first version said the exchange had “not confirmed any impact to user funds”; at 21:24 UTC that sentence came out, and at 21:29 UTC “User funds are completely safe” went in.
Binance’s founder was less guarded. Changpeng Zhao, who says he no longer manages the exchange, wrote: “It does look like a hack on Binance.” As a shareholder, he said, he expects “all user funds will be fully covered.”
The freezes came from the stablecoin issuers.
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said the company froze more than 1.567 billion USDT “related to a potential Binance exchange hack.” Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire said Circle froze more than 800 million USDC “in coordination with law enforcement.” Those are the issuers’ own figures. Zhao thanked Tether for about $971 million and Circle for about $823 million, and Decrypt counts 975.1 million USDT and 823 million USDC frozen in the main receiving wallet, about $1.8 billion. The posts do not say which addresses were frozen, so the totals do not reconcile.
Billions?!
Nobody has a confirmed loss figure. Decrypt’s on-chain tally is at least $5.57 billion across Ethereum, Bitcoin and Tron: $3.51 billion on Ethereum, $1.44 billion in 18,270 BTC and $630 million on Tron. The Block reports that Conor Grogan, a Coinbase senior director, put the total at up to $5.8 billion, while the security firm Blockaid is looking at about $3.3 billion in suspicious outflows from Binance hot wallets on Ethereum, Arbitrum and Avalanche. The tallies come from different trackers and may overlap, and Binance has confirmed none of them.
Glassnode also suggested over $5 billion worth of crypto assets moved.
Decrypt says the first Ethereum transfer, at 20:24 UTC, moved 167,464 ETH and 63 token transfers, including 1.615 billion USDT, to a new address. About three minutes earlier, an address funded through the Tornado Cash mixer had submitted an EIP-7702 delegation for a Binance hot wallet, a mechanism that lets a wallet hand its execution to outside contract code. Decrypt does not establish that as the cause, and how the attacker got the required signature is unknown.
Markets reacted.
Bitcoin tumbled back below $80,000…
Decrypt has BNB down about 7% to roughly $699 and Bitcoin below $79,000, and The Block says on-chain data shows Aave froze lending markets to stop the suspected hacker from borrowing, though Aave has issued no statement.
If confirmed at anything near Decrypt’s figure, it would be more than triple the roughly $1.5 billion Bybit theft of February 2025, the previous record. Binance lost 7,000 BTC, about $40 million at the time, in a 2019 hack. It has promised updates “through official Binance channels.”
SOUTH KOREA/
JAPAN//
“Mission Accomplished”: BOJ Declares Victory Over Deflation, Then Speeds Up ETF Dump To A Breakneck 43 Years
Friday, Oct 30, 2026 – 09:42 AM
Fourteen years, three governors, negative rates, yield curve control and the largest central bank equity hoard in history later, the Bank of Japan finally said the words.
In its quarterly Outlook Report released overnight alongside a widely expected decision to keep the policy rate at 1.25% (by an 8-1 vote, with hawk Hajime Takata dissenting in favor of a hike to 1.50%), the BOJ quietly retired the phrase it has used for years, that it expects to achieve its 2% target “between the second half of fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027”, and replaced it with this:
“underlying CPI inflation is at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target of 2 percent.”
In other words, the war on deflation that has defined the Japanese economy for three decades is, officially, over. Reuters called it the BOJ declaring “victory in a nearly 14-year battle to hit its price target”; the FT went with victory in a war “that had defined the Japanese economy for decades.” We’d go with something shorter: mission accomplished. Which, as anyone who remembers the original banner will tell you, tends to be the point where the real trouble starts.
And in case anyone thought the BOJ was just going to sit back and enjoy the moment, the central bank also nearly tripled the pace of its ETF sales, a surprise that nobody had in their models, and which shortens the time it will take to unwind its massive equity pile from 112 years to… 43 years. Progress!
A Hawkish Hold… With An Asterisk
We start with Goldman, whose Japan economist Tomohiro Ota summarized the decision in his post-meeting note “BOJ: Status Quo Maintained at October MPM, Underlying Inflation Assessed as Generally Consistent with Price Stability Target” (available to pro subs). The headline numbers barely moved: the growth forecast was “broadly unchanged” while the inflation forecasts were nudged lower for FY2026 and higher for FY2027 to reflect the jump in crude since the summer (with Brent at $116 this morning, probably not the last time we’ll hear that excuse):
Regarding the price outlook, while the BOJ slightly lowered its inflation forecast for FY2026, it raised its core CPI (excludes fresh food) forecast for FY2027 from +2.4% to +2.6%, and its new core CPI (excludes fresh food and energy) from +2.6% to +2.7%, reflecting the effects of the higher crude oil since the summer (the BOJ’s inflation outlook figures do not incorporate the consumption tax reduction on food from FY2027).
The full table is worth a second look, because the BOJ’s FY2026 core-core forecast was actually cut to 2.4% from 2.5%, and Goldman’s own forecasts sit below the BOJ’s across the board, with GS seeing core-core at 1.9% in FY2028. So the central bank declared victory on underlying inflation on the same morning its own near-term forecast drifted lower, and the same morning Tokyo core-core CPI decelerated to 2.6% from 2.9%, according to Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid. Maybe a coincidence. Maybe a central bank that has waited 14 years to say the words and wasn’t going to let a soft Tokyo print ruin the occasion.
The rest of the statement was a copy-paste of September. Risks to growth remain “generally balanced,” risks to prices are still “skewed to the upside” (Middle East, AI, FX), and the BOJ kept the language, used since June, that it “will continue to raise the policy interest rate.” The one new line Goldman flagged was a cautionary note about foreign central banks:
We highlight that the Outlook Report also added a cautionary note that many foreign central banks have shifted to a policy of raising rates since the summer, and how these would affect Japan’s economic activity and prices through global financial market channels should be closely watched. We think this implies the BOJ’s caution on risk of yen depreciation due to rate hikes by foreign central banks.
Translation: with Warsh’s Fed and the ECB both eyeing hikes, the rate differential isn’t closing, and the yen knows it. More on that below.
Ueda’s press conference delivered the hawkish part of the “hawkish hold.” The BOJ had entered a new “phase,” he said, one focused on the risk of inflation overshooting rather than undershooting, and the Board will debate a hike at every meeting, including December:
“It’s important to anchor underlying inflation around our target. That doesn’t mean we will just sit and wait. We will adjust monetary policy as appropriate so that underlying inflation becomes anchored around 2%… We must therefore be vigilant to the risk of inflation overshooting our target.“
Reuters notes that the BOJ raised rates in June and again in September, a much faster cadence than the roughly twice-a-year hikes of 2024 and 2025, and most economists it polled now expect a hike to 1.5% in December, with the terminal rate centered on 1.75% to 2%. Meiji Yasuda’s Kazutaka Maeda went a step further, saying the BOJ “may now be contemplating increases every three months.” Here is how the full journey from negative rates looks, with the market and Goldman’s end-2027 calls tacked on:
Note the gap at the far right: per Goldman’s rates strategists, OIS is pricing the BOJ policy rate at about 2.04% by end-2027, versus Goldman’s 1.75% forecast. So the market is already more hawkish than the house, which matters for what happened next in FX.
The Real Surprise: 43 Years (Down From 112)
With the rate decision priced to perfection, the only genuine curveball was the ETF announcement, which we flagged in real time just minutes after the rate decision hit:
The details, again courtesy of Goldman’s Ota: the ETF sales that began in January 2026 at an annual pace of ¥330bn (book value) will be increased to ¥860bn per year from January 2027 (a unanimous vote, in case anyone was wondering how controversial selling stocks at a 43-year pace is). “The change will shorten the time horizon required to complete the ETF selling, from 112 years to around 43 years.”
Goldman’s FX desk, in its morning update (available to pro subs), called the acceleration “the only real surprise,” noting it shortens the unwind “to around just a mere 43 years.” Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid was even drier: “Probably beyond the natural life of the EMR regardless of the pace!“
Regular readers will recall that when the BOJ first unveiled the ETF unwind back in September 2025, we summed it up in “BOJ Shocks Market With Start Of ETF Selling As It Keeps Rates Unchanged” with one line: you won’t be alive to see the BOJ sell 20% of its ETF holdings, let alone all of it. Ueda himself admitted as much at the time: “We won’t be here in 100 years’ time. But our intention is to keep selling for more than 100 years.” Well, at 43 years the math has improved, but for most of the BOJ’s board (and most of ZH’s readers) our original call still stands, so we’ll allow ourselves a modest victory lap.
Some napkin math: ¥860bn a year for 43 years implies a book value of roughly ¥37 trillion (the same figure you get from ¥330bn over 112 years). The market value is far higher: the stockpile was worth over ¥75 trillion when the unwind was announced, and the Nikkei has gone up another ~25% this year alone.
“Overdone”… Says The Market That Fell 2% Anyway
So how did Japanese stocks take the news that their biggest shareholder is now selling almost three times faster? According to Bloomberg, with “confidence.” Aizawa Securities’ Yukihiro Kawanishi pointed out that the BOJ’s planned selling of roughly ¥2.4 trillion a year at market value compares with average daily Topix turnover of about ¥9 trillion. Put differently, the BOJ will dump about a quarter of one day’s trading volume… per year.
The Nikkei did close down 2.1%, but that had everything to do with the AI and chip unwind after Intel and Amazon (Murata -11%, plus a 16% plunge in Fujitsu on an earnings miss) and very little to do with the BOJ, as Goldman’s regional desk noted; banks actually outperformed into the decision. It does cap what Goldman’s APAC desk calls the worst October for the Nikkei since 2018, a story we covered earlier this morning in “Futures Slide As AI Reckoning Claims Amazon, Intel; Oil Jumps On Hormuz Tanker Hits.” Even so, the index is still up about 25% YTD on top of last year’s 26%, so the BOJ is selling into one of the best two-year runs in decades. Timing, as they say, is everything.
There was another, less advertised beneficiary. Bloomberg Economics’ Taro Kimura noted that most of the realized gains from the sales are likely to be remitted to government coffers, which helps fund PM Sanae Takaichi’s “ambitious fiscal plans.” So the BOJ’s equity unwind doubles as a modest revenue stream for one of the developed world’s most indebted governments. Monetary and fiscal policy have never been closer… or as Japan likes to call it, Tuesday.
The Yen: Enough To Justify Pricing, Not Enough To Move It
And then there’s the yen, which is the only market that really matters here. The BOJ’s victory declaration was supposed to be the hawkish catalyst, yet the yen initially strengthened after the decision before paring gains as Ueda “offered few fresh clues on timing,” per Goldman’s regional wrap, and was trading around 157-158 per dollar. Deutsche’s Reid had it up just 0.22% at 157.38 heading into the presser.
Goldman’s FX desk explains why:
Given rates pricing going into the meeting, there was a high bar for a hawkish surprise, but GS FX Research feel like there was enough to justify current pricing but not push it further – consistent with the lack of market reaction. The event weight therefore significantly underperformed, similar to the Fed & ECB earlier in the week, contributing to the broader reprice lower in FX vols. GS Trading view this week’s JPY price action as very different to last week’s “risk-off equals JPY buying” dynamic, which raises the risk of grind higher in xJPY as positioning gets trimmed again.
And the kicker: Goldman’s FX strategists “remain of the view that any further domestic policy shifts… will take time to occur, if at all, and therefore also see near-term headwinds for JPY given the punitive carry and BoJ under-delivery risks.” Goldman’s JPY positioning score has already swung back into positive territory, which leaves plenty of room for disappointment:
This is the same story we’ve been telling since the summer. The BOJ hikes, the yen briefly cheers, the Fed (or now the ECB too) out-hawks it, and the carry trade reasserts itself. When the BOJ hiked to 1.25% on September 18, the yen promptly plunged until the BOJ conducted a “rate check,” which as we wrote in “Yen Jumps On Report Of BOJ “Rate Check” But It’s “Too Little Too Late”” (Sep 18), only slowed the bleeding. And that came after Japan’s record July-August intervention, which was funded by selling almost $90 billion in Treasuries.
The GPIF Wildcard
Which brings us to the one domestic shift that could actually move the needle. In a companion note “Q&A on a Potential GPIF Allocation Shift” (also available to pro subs), Goldman’s senior FX strategist Karen Fishman walks through what it would take for Japan’s giant pension whale to bring money home. The answer: not much. GPIF doesn’t even need to change its targets, since its current allocations sit at the midpoint of the allowable bands:
Based on holdings at the end of June 2026, roughly $90bn of purchases of domestic bonds and roughly $125bn of purchases of domestic equities would bring the allocation shares to the top of the allowable bands on the domestic side, all else equal. Such flows in each asset would be roughly comparable in size to Japan’s JPY intervention in July-August, though spread out over more than a few days. In any case, we continue to believe that the signal in any shift by GPIF should matter more than the actual flow, especially as it should lead other investors to follow.
The earliest realistic timeline is Spring 2027, at the fiscal-year-end “annual verification.” Until then, Fishman argues, short USDJPY is “a much more attractive portfolio hedge now than it has been in recent years, especially with the likelihood of greater AI-related volatility that could push both equities and yields lower together.” Readers will recall that Tokyo has been nudging pensions homeward since July (““GPIF To The Rescue?” Yen Jumps After Japan Urges Pension Funds To Invest More At Home“), and the same repatriation logic is behind the relentless Treasury selling we flagged in “Focus Turns To Japan As Source Of Relentless Treasury Selling” (Sep 30) and the French bond rout in “Sayonara, OATs” (Oct 5). Every BOJ hike makes “home” a little more attractive for Japan’s trillions parked abroad, and that is the channel through which today’s decision reaches global bond markets.
Victory Declared, Yen Unimpressed
So where does that leave us? The BOJ has declared victory over deflation, signaled December is live, and put its ETF unwind on a schedule that at least some of today’s traders might live to see. Ueda’s own framing is that the job now is to keep inflation anchored at 2%, which, with Brent at $116, the yen near 158 and a food consumption-tax cut set to muddy the data from FY2027, sounds a lot harder than getting there.
Goldman’s Ota will be watching four things for the timing of the next move: i) Ueda’s view on the exchange rate and yen-driven inflation risk, ii) the impact of tighter financial conditions, iii) the risk of inflation overshooting 2%, and iv) the level of the neutral rate. Note that the first item on that list is the yen. That is the tell. The market is already pricing more hikes than Goldman expects, the yen is barely responding, and every major central bank is leaning hawkish at the same time. Which means the BOJ probably delivers in December… and the yen probably shrugs again, until either MoF picks up the phone or GPIF picks up the bond ticket. We’d bet on the phone call coming first.
After all, it took the BOJ 14 years to hit 2% and it will take 43 more to sell the stocks it bought trying. Patience, in Japan, is a policy tool too.
Much more in the full Goldman Japan Economics note “BOJ: Status Quo Maintained at October MPM” and the “Q&A on a Potential GPIF Allocation Shift” note, both available to pro subs.
JAPAN CHINA/USA
3 CHINA
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
FRANCE
The Riots In France Expose The Dangerous Fiction That Public Spending And ‘Integration’ Create A Peaceful Society
Friday, Oct 30, 2026 – 07:20 AM
Authored by Matt Roberts via The Daily Sceptic,
The violence, looting and burning in France over the weekend of October 24th-25th was somewhat less intense and widespread than it had been on the previous weekend, but it was still significant. Demonstrations comprising an estimated 400,000 people took place across France on the Saturday; in Paris the march was confined to the south-eastern edge of the city, and this was followed by violent clashes with police near Porte de Vincennes, about a 45-minute walk from the Place de la Bastille. Water cannon and tear gas were used. Around 500 rioters were estimated to have broken off from the main protest. There were more clashes, as well as bin fires and looting in Marseille, Lyon, Bordeaux, Lille, Toulouse, Nantes, Grenoble, Rennes and several other parts of France. There were around 1,000 arrests nationwide (1,300 by some reports), with 70,000 police having been deployed to the streets, which was a substantial increase on the previous weekend’s deployment. Activists have called for further action on October 31st, and it’s clear that the sentiment behind the unrest hasn’t gone away. The weather on the 31st is forecast to be mild and dry, more similar to that of the 17th than the wetter, colder 24th, so it remains to be seen how much the tensions have been defused, and to what extent the less dedicated were put off by the weather.
There are two competing narratives in the media (mainstream and alternative) about the motivations for the unrest, and indeed the nature of the unrest. On the one hand, this is a ‘mostly peaceful’ expression of the French people’s frustration with public services. It started with teachers and students protesting against the underfunding of schools, and has widened to express a broader discontent with austerity measures and the economy in general. On the other hand, this is a violent ethno-religious-communist uprising trying to bring down the French state and overturn French society.
Legacy media would have you believe the first of these is true, given the footage they’re showing and the voiceovers they’re providing. Just a brief sojourn into X, Rumble or YouTube will have you come away convinced of the second. Interestingly, the French political Establishment seems to be more aligned with the insurrection view than the peaceful protest view. Less than a week before the first outbreak of violence, Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise (‘France Unbowed’) was calling for the formation of a Sixth Republic of ‘popular power’. On October 22nd, addressing the nation, Macron referred to “political and even seditious acts carried out by organized ultra-Left groups whose aim is to bring down the Republic”. Laurent Nuñez, France’s Interior Minister, referred to “very high levels of violence” and “militants of the ultra-Left movement, of the extreme far Left”. Although they’re comfortable calling out the black bloc activists that can be seen on the streets, they’re ignoring the Islamic slogans and the ethnic composition of many of the perpetrators that the rest of us can see on X.
These two narratives are not mutually exclusive. There is both a mass peaceful demonstration against perceived underinvestment in public services and a violent uprising from an alliance of convenience of anti-Western forces. In this sense, there is an opportunity to use France as an object lesson on this side of the channel. It is a lesson we have been refusing to learn from our own situation, and which has been offered to us grindingly slowly in our own politics and on our streets: the techno-managerial social democratic project rests on a utopian fiction. If we are interested in preserving our civilization, then we really must start paying attention.
In Britain, across almost all of the EU and into the Anglosphere (possibly excepting the United States), the fiction goes something like this: if the state can hoover up just the right amount of money and distribute it correctly through services and benefits, guided by experts and technocrats, eventually we will achieve a settled, prosperous society. The system is imperfect, but perfectible. All that it needs is just the last tax increase, the ideal budget, or a carefully planned management structure, and all will be well. It’s just over the horizon, but the direction of travel is the right one. It must be, because that’s how we planned it. In the meantime, all of this will be improved by importing human capital from far-flung parts of the world. Since culture and tribalism are essentially artificial, this will be a success as soon as we achieve something called integration.
Many reading this will doubtless already have concluded that this is indeed a dangerous fiction. The interesting thing is that our political, media and institutional class don’t seem to be able to look across the channel and see the urgent evidence of the delusion.
If it really were a case of the right amount of resources being allocated through the state, then surely France would be closer to nirvana than we are in Britain? French public sector spending accounts for around 57% of the country’s GDP. Social spending – that is, cash benefits and in-kind services for old age, health, family, unemployment, incapacity, housing, and so on – accounts for fully 30% of GDP. This compares to 49.4% and 28% state expenditure and social spending respectively for Germany, 47% and 23% for the UK and 37% and 19.8% for the US. In Communist China, the state accounts for around 33% of GDP and 10-13% is spent on social benefits. In the USSR in 1988, something like 51% of spending was by the state; roughly 15-20% was social spending (these last two are necessarily estimates, because the data are neither easily available nor reliable).
Nor is it true that Macron himself has overseen meaningful cuts to services and benefits. It was part of his persona in 2017 when first elected that he was going to restore sanity to French public spending and make some of the difficult decisions that his predecessors had avoided. In reality, he hasn’t. As the chart shows, in 2017, he inherited public sector spending at 57.5% of GDP, had some initial success in driving it down to a mere 55.3% by 2019, and then indulged in the same kind of massive increases that we saw across the rest of the developed world in 2020. It’s fallen since, and then risen again, but net, the change is a reduction of two-tenths of one per cent of GDP over seven years, while the economy itself has grown by some 10-11% in real terms.
If France spends more on its public services than Britain does, and has done so for years, then the claim that the unrest is driven by underinvestment is difficult to sustain. This point has been made quite widely in the commentary of the last two weeks. However, it also calls into question the larger claim that once an expertly managed state becomes large enough, peace and prosperity will be the natural result. France is further down the road than we are, but we are being asked to follow them. Where is the evidence that the destination is one worth heading for? When France is spending 10 percentage points more of its GDP on public services than Britain and is taking to the streets in protest at poor outcomes and declining services, what is the evidence that our lives will be better once we just invest a little more in public services? The obvious answer is that there isn’t any. We’re asked to take it on trust and as a matter of faith.
We then come to the other fiction: that of fungible humans and harmonious integration. Again, the TV news footage of the large daytime protests doesn’t make it clear, but there are any number of videos on X or elsewhere that show quite unmistakably that the people carrying out the looting and the violent acts into the evening are predominantly of North African, Middle Eastern and sub-Saharan African heritage. It is not possible to evidence this, for example with arrest figures, because the French state does not capture ethnicity data, only nationality and place of birth. We also do know that France has a distinct problem with concentrations of immigrant populations in the banlieues, and that these have been the spark points for previous outbreaks of large-scale rioting (for example in 2005 and 2023). When the mostly Algerian and Tunisian guest workers were allowed to start settling permanently and bringing their families to France in the 1970s, they were housed in the concrete high-rises of the banlieues, and despite decades of policy of civic identity and laïcité, that concentration has never gone away. Because of this, in all likelihood, many of the young men we see on the streets of Paris are second, third, even fourth-generation immigrants to France.
The inference of this would be that, having run an extensive version of public provision and civic equality over a long period of time, this has not resulted in the integration and feeling of settled belonging that we’re told it should. Official net immigration figures for France suggest an additional 1.6-1.7 million net arrivals in France since 2016 (the first year of the Syrian immigration crisis). Low by recent British standards, but it leaves the question open: how are they to be integrated if previous generations of arrivals still are not?
We have a similar situation in this country. Many immigrant groups live in essentially monocultural areas, leading parallel cultural existences and not in any meaningful sense integrating into Britain. There is a very similar pattern of geographical concentration along ethnic lines. Granted, these are more likely to be in brick terraced houses than concrete tower blocks, and granted, we haven’t seen the scale of street violence here that we have in France. Even the 2011 and 2024 riots were not on the same level as the events in French cities over the past two weekends. However, this doesn’t demonstrate successful integration; it only shows that the same underlying patterns have not yet produced the same results. More to the point, are we to take the fact that our city centers aren’t on fire as evidence of a successful integration project?
Much of the political dialogue in both France and Britain focuses on the idea of integration. In particular, on the idea that it is just a matter of time. If immigrant communities are given the time and the help to become part of society, then eventually they will. Evidence given consists of anecdote and caveat, along the lines of ‘I have very good friends who are of this ethnic background’ or ‘there are many members of this particular community that are integrated, productive members of society’. This is all very well, and no doubt true, but where is the evidence that long-term public support and equality under the law will eventually result in integration en masse, especially when the immigration itself continues at scale and the geographical concentration continues? That evidence is not to be found in historical precedent, and it is not to be found by looking across the Channel.
There are several areas of modern society where we are facing unprecedented challenges that need to be addressed. Medical science allows us to treat, cure and manage illnesses that would have been a death sentence a century ago. This is wonderful, but how do we pay for it? We have an economy that is far more complex than has been the case before. That is probably to the good, but how do we understand, much less regulate and manage it (assuming we should regulate and manage it at all)? Far more people can transplant their lives across far greater distances than has been the case in the past. How do we deal with this reality?
We are addressing all of these problems and many more with solutions invented around 1945, and the problems themselves look very different than they did 80 years ago. Worse, many of the solutions we are applying are based on conviction and ideology, not on even the evidence of the intervening decades. Why should we continue to expect that the solutions will work, especially when we can look to Paris and see that they have not? In all likelihood, France will settle down again next weekend, or in the near future. Even when it does, it would be a mistake to breathe a sigh of relief and continue with business as usual. There is an opportunity finally to learn from the event and set about correcting the misconceptions that are at the heart of Western governments.
With a background in history and political philosophy and after a long corporate career, Matt Roberts now writes on the political system and current affairs. Find him on his Substack page, the Traditional Pragmatist, and on X.
POLAND
Polish President Abruptly Reroutes Flight As Police Surround Constitutional Court
Friday, Oct 30, 2026 – 03:45 PM
Poland has descended into a crisis of government, with some oppositionists going so far as to claim a “coup” is underway, but it’s still perhaps far too early to know where things stand on the ground.
Polish Police on Friday night have apparently surrounded and cordoned off the headquarters of the Constitutional Tribunal in Warsaw, coming amid a running crisis over the body’s leadership which has pitted Prime Minister Donald Tusk against his two main political adversaries
Tusk and his governing coalition are in a standoff with allies of the former Law and Justice (PiS) administration, as well as the current president of the country, Karol Nawrocki.
The Friday night chaos started when it was the Polish official agency PAP which was the first to report that Bogdan Święczkowski and his number two, Bartlomiej Sochanski, were suspended for a month by order of Judge Anna Korwin-Piotrowska.
“The duties of the president of the Constitutional Court, Bogdan Święczkowski, and his deputy were suspended,” EuroNews confirms.
“Today, I issued an order immediately suspending the duties of Mr. Bogdan Święczkowski, acting president of the Constitutional Tribunal. I issued the same order with respect to Judge Bartłomiej Sochański, acting vice president of the Constitutional Tribunal,” she announced, with changes quickly reflected in the Constutinonal Tribunal’s website.
The primary responsibility of the tribunal is conducting judicial review to verify that Polish statutes adhere to constitutional standards.
According to more context via Reuters:
The tribunal said on its website that the court’s president, Bogdan Swieczkowski, had been suspended on Friday. A long-running political dispute over the Constitutional Tribunal has effectively paralysed the institution. Earlier this year, Nawrocki, an ally of Poland’s former nationalist government, refused to swear in three of six judges nominated by parliament, while Swieczkowski declined to allow judges elected by the current parliamentary majority to assume their duties.
The police action at the tribunal then prompted Polish President Nawrocki to abrubtly turn back his plane en route to Senegal for a scheduled state visit.
“At a moment like this, the President must be in Poland. I am cutting short my flight to Senegal. I am returning,” he wrote on X.
Major accusations fly…
Protesters against the court interference reportedly clashed with police. From there…
Opposition leader Jarosław Kaczyński has described the police action as a “coup” against the Constitutional Tribunal involving services under the government of pro-EU Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
There’s meanwhile been confusion over Judge Korwin-Piotrowska’s order, which additionally reflected the court’s leadership changes on its website:
Shortly after, the Constitutional Tribunal itself released a message on its social networks stating that the page had been the object of an “illegal takeover”, that Korwin-Piotrowska was not acting on behalf of the court, and that anyone involved in these actions “is committing the crime of coup d’état”.
In an initial public reaction on social media, Tusk maintained that the restoration of the rule of law “is a duty” and that “after years of arbitrariness” “a difficult, sometimes painful process that requires determined action” has begun because “there is no other way”.
developing…
5.RUSSIA AND ISRAEL AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFIARS
ISRAEL/IRAN/USA /FRIDAY
Senator Rips Trump’s ‘Insane’ Plan For Iran Escalation, As Pentagon Transport Planes Land In Israel
Friday, Oct 30, 2026 – 09:25 AM
There are continuing signs that President Trump may be ready to pull the trigger on ordering another major attack against Iran, though the American public might be wondering what the endgame or ‘mission accomplished’ moment might be – which has remained undefined and elusive after seven full months.
First, Israel’s national KAN News reported late Thursday that ten US Air Force transport planes arrived at airbases in southern Israel, part of a surge in Pentagon equipment transfers across the region. KAN said this is preparation for a “short, focused war with Iran” – with the aircraft likely stocked with air defense systems.
Confirmation of the airlifts arriving in Israel came a day after The Wall Street Journal reported that “The U.S. military is sending an additional Patriot system to Israel from Texas to beef up its missile defenses in the country, according to flight-tracking data and two officials with knowledge of the movement.”
“U.S. forces in the region have been restocking their munitions, and bomber aircraft and jet fighters are preparing for strikes, some of the officials said,” the report indicated. “An additional aircraft-carrier strike group and Marine expeditionary unit are also poised to join an armada of roughly 20 other warships operating in the Middle East next month, although some ships could rotate out.”
All of this build-up looks to be doing practically nothing to deter the Iranians from what are now daily attacks on internatonal shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. There have been at least a half-dozen tanker attacks, mine hits, or incidents resulting in serious damage in the strait this week alone. And another Friday:
IRAN CLAIMS OIL SUPERTANKER HIT MINE FRIDAY IN HOMRUZ: FARS
Next, the US has reportedly been warning Gulf allies of a new round of strikes on Iran to come. They must brace themselves for the inevitable Iranian retaliation, which it seems the Pentagon is powerless to stop.
Also, on Thursday top US admirals briefed the Commander-in-Chief on ‘options’ for a renewed war. This saw CENTCOM chief Adm. Brad Cooper at the White House, along with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine.
Will US regional allies cooperate and sign on to whatever next escalation phase might come?
But the meeting is said to have heavily focused on the status of the US Navy mission in the Strait of Hormuz, where record levels of wartime oil transit is making its way out. The admin might be content to keep this uneasy status quo sitution going, which has relied heavily on ‘dark’ transits and smaller ship-to-ship transfers under the ‘protection’ of the US Navy. The meeting also included the presence of Vice President JD Vance, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles – as reported in Axios.
At a moment the Iranians have not backed off their conditions for ending the war, one influential diplomat says that there needs to be a longer ‘time out’ and that some kind of deal could be ‘very close’ (though we’ve heard all of this many times before). Per Axios:
U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack told CNN on Thursday that the U.S. and Iran are “very close” to a deal to deescalate tensions.
“I think we’re very close to finally getting to a place where we can say, ‘Let’s just have a timeout,'” he said. “We’re not going to have an overall solution immediately, but we can allow the region to find its own pace.”
There’s of late been independent and local reporting of limited US attacks against the southern Iranian coast, reportedly against rocket launch and other Iranian ‘defensive’ sites – but little can be proven or conformed amid the fog of war and competing claims.
Another sign that things could soon rapidly escalate – likely after the midterm elections (at least according to Trump’s latest words) – is that Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy has late this week revealed he’s been briefed on the Trump administration’s plans to resume military operations after the November 3 vote in the US.
Notably, he warned that the plan is “insane” as it “will lead to devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law.”
Murphy highlighted recent reports potential US strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure, in an effort to sow societal breakdown and collapse in the country, but did not elaborate with details.
“The plan that they have developed will lead, in my view, to a prolonged escalation of this war that will be devastating for our security interests,” he added in his remarks, and further warned of American service members being put at risk.
The Senator further hit out at the White House for lack of Congressional authorization for the war. “Every first year law student could tell you that this war is illegal” in the domestic sense, Murphy asserted. “But it is also clearly in contravention of international law and commitments that we have made to the rule of law to deliberately target civilians and to use the harm or potential harm of civilians as leverage in war.”
This “cycle of escalation” – as he called it, has already been on display throughout the summer, given each new US military action has served to lead to each new round of escalation, also as America’s Gulf allies get pummeled with Iranian missiles and drones each time.
END
Tanker Fire Friday: Iran Claims At Least Two More Attacks In Strait of Hormuz
Friday, Oct 30, 2026 – 11:10 AM
Tensions continue to soar in the Strait of Hormuz, as Iranian military forces claimed a series of aggressive maritime actions on Friday, or what we might call another Tanker Fire Friday.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy has newly announced that it intercepted and halted two commercial tankers for straying into “unauthorized routes” in the southern stretch of the strait.
The IRGC has further said Friday that a supertanker caught fire after striking a naval mine. State IRNA writes, “This is the third tanker that has suffered an explosion and fire on Friday due to passing through an unauthorized route, the IRGC Navy said in its statement.”
“This super tanker, carrying more than two million barrels of oil, has been abandoned at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz and is currently burning,” it added.
Iran is essentially telling international shipping that it’s ‘our route or no route’ – and these fresh satements come after Iran said three tankers exploded the day prior.
At this point, there’s been well over a half-dozen, or possibly even a dozen, tanker damage incidents in regional waters this week. The pace of attacks has been so intense that identities and locations of each incident has been difficulat for maritime monitors to ascertain.
Neighboring regional forces are stepping in to handle the immediate fallout at sea, with Oman’s navy having launched an emergency operation to rescue 25 crew members from a targeted vessel lying over 120 miles off its northern coastal area.
European media reports have featured more details of the new Friday incidents as follows:
According to Iranian state media, the Guard claimed the tankers had switched off their navigation and positioning systems and were attempting to leave the strait through routes opposed by Tehran, with the support of the U.S. military.
The Guard said the vessels continued sailing despite repeated radio warnings before encountering trouble in what it described as unsafe areas.
It provided no details about the tankers’ identities, their flags, the precise cause of the incidents or the condition of their crews.
The US has reportedly been warning Gulf allies of a possible new round of strikes on Iran to come. However, they must brace themselves for the inevitable Iranian retaliation.
Oil prices climbing throughout Friday…
It’s uknown what’s being communicated from the Gulf to Washington behind the scenes, but GCC rulers are not likely to welcome any new escalation, while busy trying to rebuild and protect energy infrastructure.
ISRAELTBN
IRAN
SAUDI ARABIA VS HOUTHIS
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Ukraine Shatters Strike Pause With Major Drone Attack On Russian Oil Refinery, Defying Trump
Friday, Oct 30, 2026 – 08:25 AM
Russia’s sprawling Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery in the Samara region is on fire on Friday, after suffering what appear to be multiple and widespread hits of a Ukrainian drone attack wave, with several pillars of smoke rising high above the complex, and seen for miles.
Curiously, news of the fresh attack emerged just hours after the Wall Street Journal reported the Zelensky government had paused refinery strikes under pressure from the Trump administration.
WSJ’s reporting has been updated Friday morning in confirmation that “Ukraine struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region early on Friday, ending a two-week pause in refinery attacks that came amid heavy pressure from the Trump administration to halt such operations.”
The publication reviews, “Ukrainian forces last hit an oil refinery on Oct. 15, and had not struck Russian oil infrastructure of any kind since Oct. 20. The pause took place against a background of repeated demands by Trump and other U.S. officials to stop hitting refineries.”
Trump envoy Jared Kushner had reportedly asked Kiev to abide by a 30-day halt. President Zelensky later said he agreed to a brief pause in the strikes, but did so begrudgingly.
Surreal, apocalyptic scenes…
On Wednesday Ukrainian media cited direct confirmation of an energy strike pause from a closed-door meeting with reporters that happened the day before:
In the first 72 hours of the energy truce, Ukraine suspended strikes on Russian oil refineries while its forces focused on other targets, the president added.
“I said, ‘Let’s respond calmly by striking other targets for at least 72 hours. We won’t touch the oil refineries.’ That didn’t help. There was all kinds of rhetoric, and no one thanked us for those three days,” Zelensky said.
“There was the incident involving the Ryazan oil refinery (on Oct. 15). There were other operations as well. We targeted data centers and locations where Russian ballistic missiles are concentrated,” Zelensky has also explained.
And certainly Ukraine is not happy with reports this week showing Russian oil refineries increased crude processing by 25% in the second half of October compared to the beginning of the month due to the short-lived pause in strikes, as Reuters highlighted.
The Samara region is around 500-miles from the Ukrainian border.
The refinery produces jet fuel for the Russian forces, along with producing dozens of types of petroleum products, including Euro 5-standard petrol and diesel fuel.
Novokuibyshevsk has been part of the Rosneft group since 2007, with a publicly reported annual processing capacity is approximately 8.8 million tonnes of oil.
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES//AI
COVID VACCINE INJURY REPORTS; DR MARK CRISPIN MILLER
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS/ENERGY COMMENTARIES
Brent January Futs Hit New Highs As Oil Market Braces For Post-Midterm Gulf Escalation
Friday, Oct 30, 2026 – 06:55 AM
Brent crude futures tagged $118 a barrel early Friday, touching a six-month high as more attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and on Saudi energy assets raised concerns about a potential flare-up in the Gulf conflict after next week’s US midterm elections.
President Trump continues to receive briefings on military options against Iran, according to a new Wall Street Journal report. Trump has signaled that a “brief Epic Fury” could resume after Tuesday’s midterm elections.
A letter sent this week from Vice President JD Vance to Iran’s top leadership has not yet received a response. Tehran has maintained that any peace talks require the Trump administration to lift the blockade on Iranian oil and unfreeze Iranian funds.
“What is the price of oil? Eight months into the war with Iran, what should be a straightforward question has become surprisingly hard to answer,” JPMorgan energy expert Natasha Kaneva wrote in a note. Kaneva’s current model puts Brent around $94 a barrel, well below $118.
Brent crude futures for January delivery are making new highs this morning as buying continues to move up the curve.
“The world has far less protection against another supply interruption,” Bloomberg reporter Rebecca Feng said.
Feng noted, “Global on-land oil inventories that could be readily drawn and used were near their lowest since at least 2016, according to the latest figures from the IEA.” While data from ship tracker Kpler show Gulf export volumes exceeding prewar levels of 23.3 million barrels a day, total supply to the market, including deliveries to domestic refineries, remains below last year’s levels, Morgan Stanley analysts warned.
UBS energy specialist Dominic Ellis added more color on Brent crude:
Brent touched a 6-month high on Friday, passing through $117/bbl, on news of fresh attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi energy assets and the absence of progress from recent attempts to engage diplomatically with Iran. US VP Vance’s letter to Iranian officials has yet to elicit a response, but Iran’s messaging has been consistent and clear: they are willing to engage only when the US commits to lift the blockade on Iranian oil and to unfreeze Iranian funds. The Wall Street Journal reported [paywall] on Thursday that President Trump continues to take briefings on military options for Iran, and has signaled that attacks may restart after the US midterms next Tuesday.
In another sign of growing concern about the security situation in the Middle East, senior executives at Exxon and Chevron have pulled out of the ADIPEC conference due to take place in Abu Dhabi next week. I continue to believe that US midterms are not likely to be a catalyst for renewed Middle East diplomacy by the US, whatever the outcome.
While spot prices and the front end of the forward curve seem to be pricing in a higher probability of escalation and disruption to energy production and exports, I continue to believe the market is not realistically pricing in the medium or longer-term impact of the Middle East conflict, and that prices could spike higher unless there is more substantive evidence of diplomatic progress than has thus far been the case.
Earlier this week, Jefferies hosted Atlantic Council Middle East specialist and former US intelligence official Jonathan Panikoff for a discussion with analysts Aniket Shah and Lloyd Byrne on what comes next in the Gulf after the midterms. With Brent at a six-month high and diplomacy stalled, the big question that now remains is: renewed talks or another round of strikes? Read the note
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
BRAZIL
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING\
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1195 UP 0.0058
USA/ YEN 157.43 DOWN 0.379 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!! BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE. URGES PENSION AND INSUANCE FUNDS TO BUY JAPANESE BONDS//
YEN CARRY TRADERS MURDERED
GBP/USA 1.3409 UP 0.00032 OR 32 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3962 DOWN 0.0025 //CDN DOLLAR UP 25 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 52.46 PTS OR 1.44%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 356.35 PTS OR 1.59%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.06%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY RED EXCEPT LONDON
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED EXCEPT LONDON
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 356.35 PTS OR 1.59%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 52.46 PTS OR 1.44%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .06%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 1333.47 PTS OR 2.06%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $3984.50
silver:$50.69
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 49.842 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 80.59B0ROUBLE// UP 0 ROUBLE AND 69 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.92300DOWN 8 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.2960 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
FRENCH OAT 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.8460 UP 7 BASIS PTS.
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.8010 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.538 DOWN 7BBASIS PTS
USA dollar index early FRIDAY MORNING: 101.54 DOWN 36 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSES
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.8090 % DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.768% DOW 8 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.843 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.962 DOWN 3 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 4.514 UP 2 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.3289 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1148 UDOWN 0.0034 OR 34 basis points
USA/Japan: 157.29 DOWN 0.547 2OR YEN IS UP 55 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.30001 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.7310 UP 3 BASIS POINTS.
FRANCE 10 YR: 4.983 UP 10 BASIS PTS
CANADIAN DOLLAR DOWN 4 BASIS PTS TO 1.3954
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY 6.6539ON SHORE ..UP
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.6521
TURKISH LIRA: 49.95 UP 11 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 in basis points from THURDAY at 4.947 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.319 DOWN 16basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.623 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM $390200
SILVER AT 10;00: $49..17
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest ratesFRIDAY
DAY CLOSING TIME/ 12:00 AM///
London: CLOSED UP 7.71PTS OR 0.07%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED DOWN 120.20PTS OR 0.87%
FRANCE:DOWN 8.27 OR 0.11PTS
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 204.70 PTS OR 1.09 %
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 578.65 TS OR 1.02%
WTI Oil price 103.87
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 101.43 OR DOWN 6 PTS
Brent Oil: 113.4471 10;00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 80.44/ ROUBLE UP 0 AND 80 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.7980 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.527 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM//
Euro vs USA 1.1166 DOWN 0.0016 OR 16 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3392 UP 0.0015 OR 15 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 5.2917 DOWN 1 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.7210 DOWN 0 IN BASIS PTS.
FRENCH 10 YR BOND: 4.973% UP 8 BASIS PTS
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.760 % DOWN 8 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.831 DOWN 7 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 157.52 DOWN 0.295 OR YEN UP 30 BASIS PTS//GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM 160.00/ EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3966 DOWN 0.0020 PTS// CDN DOLLAR UP 20 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 103.61
Brent OIL: 112.75
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 7 BASIS pts to 4.9150%
USA 30 yr bond yield: DOWN 2 PTS to 5.314%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.577 DOWN 8 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.8300 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.501DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 101.78 UP 1 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 49.95 UP 11 BASIS PTS GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 80.87 UP 0 AND 87 /100 roubles //
GOLD $3876.00 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 49.10 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 571.95 POINTS OR 4.09%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 1017.66 PTS OR 3.46 %
VOLATILITY INDEX 20.45 UP 3.25PTS OR 15.77%
GLD: $ 354.92 DOWN 13.05 PTS OR 3.70%
SLV/ 44.60PTS DOWN 5.67 OR 2.68%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED DOWN 791.18TS OR 2.18%
END
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Lula Shock, AI Block, & New Smoking Barrels: October Spooks Bond Vigilantes Into Midterms..
WRAP UP
USA DATA RELEASES
USA ECONOMIC REPORT
Trump Abruptly Cancels High-Stakes Rally In Ominous Sign Ahead Of Midterms
Thursday, Oct 29, 2026 – 05:20 PM
President Donald Trump abruptly canceled a planned campaign rally in Kansas just days before the midterm elections, raising fresh questions about Republicans’ prospects of maintaining their grip on the Senate.
Trump was scheduled to appear on Saturday at the Salina Regional Airport to boost Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS), who is now facing a surprisingly tough reelection fight against Democrat Adam Hamilton.
However, the Kansas Republican Party confirmed Thursday that the rally was off, with the White House announcing that Trump would instead hold virtual campaign events, The Hill reports.
“President Trump will continue connecting directly with Americans nationwide through more than 20 telerallies before Election Day,” a White House official told the news outlet. “These events give him the opportunity to highlight his accomplishments and expand his reach across the country.”
The cancellation coincided with worrying new polling for Marshall. A CNN survey released Thursday showed Hamilton leading the Republican incumbent 49% to 45%, although the four-point advantage fell within the poll’s margin of error.
As we reported last week, Republicans are facing the daunting possibility of losing a Kansas Senate seat that Democrats have not won since 1932.
Fox News‘ latest Power Rankings rate control of the Senate a toss-up, with Democrats favored in 48 seats, Republicans in 46, and six races still up for grabs.
In an interview with Fox Business, Marshall conceded he’s facing a tough reelection fight and blamed soaring energy costs as his biggest hurdle.
“Well, no, I think it’s the price of gasoline,” Marshall told Fox Business when asked why the race remained so competitive. “It’s that simple.”
Marshall also blamed negative media coverage of President Donald Trump for shaping perceptions of the economy.
“The national media, the legacy media has just beat the heck out of President Trump now for, what, 10 years, and despite what’s really a pretty strong economy here in Kansas, the legacy media is just telling you the sky is falling,” the senator said.
The national polling shows why the senator’s concerned.
An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos survey found that 71% of Americans consider gasoline unaffordable, compared with 28% in February. A Pew Research Center survey also found that 74% of Americans are very concerned about gasoline and energy prices, up from 43% in January.
END
New York City Sheds 30,000 Jobs As Restaurants Face Mounting Financial Pressure
Thursday, Oct 29, 2026 – 04:40 PM
It turns out that more suffocating regulation in one of the most aggressively regulated cities in the U.S. is not helpful to businesses…go figure…
In fact, rising operating costs, bureaucratic delays and persistent inflation are putting growing pressure on New York City businesses, with restaurant owners warning that operating in the five boroughs is becoming increasingly difficult, according to MSN/NY Post.
The strain is now showing up in employment figures. A new report from City Comptroller Mark Levine found that New York City’s private sector lost approximately 30,000 jobs in August and September, bringing total losses over the past year to roughly 32,000. September accounted for about 23,000 of those cuts, following another 7,400 in August.
The MSN/NY Post piece says that hospitality and finance were among the hardest-hit industries. Restaurants, hotels and other leisure businesses shed 7,700 positions in September despite a relatively strong tourism season. Employment in the sector has declined by 17,000 over the past year, while financial services companies eliminated nearly 6,000 positions in September.
Business owners say the figures reflect an affordability crisis. Sam Musovic, owner of Upper East Side cocktail bar Sojourn Social, said soaring food prices and rent contributed to his decision to close another restaurant last year, eliminating approximately 100 jobs. Musovic, who immigrated from Montenegro and began his career washing dishes, lamented that opportunities to build a successful business in New York are disappearing.
Greenwich Village’s Loring Place faced similar pressures, announcing its closure in July after nearly a decade in business. Owner Dan Kluger cited mounting expenses, including electricity bills that climbed from roughly $8,000 per month to more than $14,000, alongside a 38% increase in health insurance costs this year.
Restaurant operators also blame City Hall’s permitting process. George Tenedios, who owns nearly two dozen restaurants across the region, said construction approvals now take 10 to 15 weeks, compared with roughly four weeks two years ago. Other operators argue that these delays leave completed establishments unable to open, postponing hiring and adding unnecessary expenses.
The employment decline comes as New Yorkers continue facing elevated living costs. According to Levine, consumer prices have increased 4.5% over the past year, with rents rising more than 5% and energy costs jumping over 21%. The weakness in local hiring also contrasts with an estimated 3% expansion in national GDP during the latest quarter.
The figures could complicate upcoming budget negotiations in Albany, where lawmakers may consider additional taxes to address municipal deficits. While Gov. Kathy Hochul has pledged not to raise corporate taxes, Mayor Zohran Mamdani continues to advocate higher taxes on wealthy residents. Business groups warn that additional costs could further discourage investment and hiring.
Despite the losses, the city’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.8%, while commercial and residential leasing remained strong. Nevertheless, the sharp decline in private-sector employment raises concerns about New York’s economic outlook as businesses contend with mounting costs and regulatory obstacles.
Nothing more bureaucracy can’t solve right? We’re due for another Mamdani task force
END
Amazon Craters As Cash Burn Explodes, Weak Guide
Thursday, Oct 29, 2026 – 04:25 PM
Earlier today we asked the question every Amazon holder has been asking all year: why does this stock never work? Tonight Amazon (AMZN) answered it with one number: -$33.5 billion.
That is how much free cash flow Amazon burned in Q3 alone. Bloomberg consensus expected an outflow of $7.7 billion; Amazon came in more than four times worse, as quarterly capex exploded to $77.3 billion, up 43% from $54.2 billion in Q2. Trailing free cash flow collapsed to -$42.4 billion, from -$7.6 billion three months ago. To help pay for it, Amazon raised $48.1 billion of new long-term debt during the quarter.
Everything else was a sideshow. AWS grew 39.3%, its fastest in nearly five years, but short of the 42% the buyside was actually looking for; operating income hit a record $28.1 billion, right on the $28 billion whisper; EPS of $1.89 missed the $1.97 consensus; and Q4 guidance came in light on both revenue and operating income.
We had a feeling:
It didn’t. The stock tumbled as much as 12.5% after hours to around $223 (and briefly traded down to ~$214), well beyond the 7.5% implied move, wiping out the entire post-Q2 rally and sending the stock back to levels last seen in early April.
Update (flash comment from Goldman Sachs – they are not happy)…
We would expect Amazon’s shares to have an initial negative reaction to its Q3 2026 earnings report as the results painted a neutral to slightly weaker outcome relative to GS/Street estimates across most areas of the business. Most notable were Online Stores revenue & Advertising Services and AWS revenue were ahead of GS/Street estimates but below buyside expectations of 42%+ YoY growth that had been a consistent topic of conversation in the weeks leading up to the earnings report. In Terms of forward commentary, the Q4 revenue range bracketed Street estimates, while the high end of the Operating Income guide was slightly above Street estimates (with commentary around AWS growth rate of +40% for 2027 & 2028). Lastly the company reaffirmed ~$220b of capex for 2026.
The Number That Matters: -$33.5 Billion In One Quarter
Forget AWS for a moment. The number that matters is free cash flow, which peaked at $52.9 billion in mid-2024, turned negative in Q2 at -$7.6 billion, and is now -$42.4 billion. The math for the quarter is brutal in its simplicity: $42.4 billion of operating cash flow against $75.9 billion of net capex.
And then there is the guide. Amazon says it “continue[s] to expect” 2026 cash capex of about $220 billion. With $172 billion already spent (net) in the first nine months, that implies Q4 capex of roughly $48 billion, a 37% drop from the quarter it just reported, right as Jassy says demand still exceeds supply. Either Amazon is about to slam on the brakes in Q4, or Q3 pulled forward a chunk of spending the guide never accounted for. Either way, nobody believes 2027 will be lower: going in, the buyside was looking for $320-375 billion next year, and tonight Amazon gave no 2027 number at all.
Then there’s the guide…
For Q4, Amazon expects revenue of $240-247 billion, a midpoint of $243.5 billion vs. the $244.2 billion consensus. Operating income is guided to $28.5-33.5 billion, a midpoint of $31 billion vs. the Street’s $33 billion, and a full $1.5 billion below the $30-35 billion range the buyside was looking for, at both ends.
That’s even after the roughly $1 billion boost JPMorgan’s Schilsky expected once Amazon Leo goes live and its costs start getting capitalized.
The only line guided up was advertising, which Amazon says will rebound to high-teens growth after Q3’s 12% “timing anomaly.”
Translation: a holiday quarter with less profit than both the Street and the whisper, the same ~$220 billion capex plan, and a promise that ads will bounce back.
Who’s Paying? The Bond Market
When the cash doesn’t come from operations, it comes from somewhere else. Amazon’s balance sheet tells you where:
- Long-term debt nearly tripled in nine months, from $65.6 billion at the end of 2025 to $173.1 billion at the end of September, thanks to $115.1 billion of new long-term borrowing year-to-date ($48.1 billion of it in Q3).
- Cash fell from $86.8 billion to $55.8 billion.
- Interest expense more than tripled to $1.7 billion in Q3, from $0.5 billion a year ago.
- “Other long-term liabilities” nearly tripled too, to $99.9 billion from $36.0 billion.
That’s on top of Amazon’s first-ever sterling bonds and the $8 billion Nvidia chip SPV. And all this a few hours after Microsoft, supposedly the cleanest balance sheet of the bunch, launched a $25 billion bond deal the morning after its “clean” beat. As we put it a few weeks ago, “debt becomes capex, becomes revenue, becomes EPS.” Amazon just showed the first step of that chain at scale.
Last week we said the hyperscalers’ off-balance sheet tally would cross $4 trillion once everyone reported.
Scorecard: Street Vs. Whisper Vs. Actual
As JPMorgan’s Mark Schilsky put it in his “Earnings Preview Bonanza” (available to pro subs), Street estimates were “comically low,” so the real bar was the buyside whisper. Here’s how Amazon did against both:
| Metric | Street | Buyside bogey | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWS revenue growth | ~37% (GS desk: ~41%) | ~42% | 39.3% |
| AWS revenue | ~$45.4B | – | $46.0B |
| AWS operating margin | ~37% | “low-40s” (UBS) | 38.7% (Q2: 39.4%) |
| Net sales | ~$202.1B (guide $197-202B) | $202-203B | $201.9B |
| Operating income | ~$26B (guide $22.5-26.5B) | ~$28B | $28.1B (record 13.9% margin) |
| EPS | $1.97 | – | $1.89 |
| Advertising growth | – | – | +12% ex-FX |
| Q4 sales guide | $244.5B | – | $240.0-247.0B |
| Q4 op income guide | $33B | top end ~$35B | $28.5-33.5B |
| Q3 capex | Q2: $54.2B | – | $77.3B gross / $75.9B net |
| Q3 free cash flow | -$7.7B (Bloomberg) | – | -$33.5B |
| LTM free cash flow | Q2: -$7.6B | – | -$42.4B |
| 2027 capex | ~$280B | $320-375B | Not guided; 2026 still ~$220B |
| After-hours move | implied ±7.5% (24Q avg realized 6.6%) | as much as -12.5% | |
The pattern is clear in the chart: Amazon cleared the Street almost everywhere and the whisper almost nowhere. AWS split the difference between the Street’s 37% and the buyside’s 42%, operating income essentially matched the whisper, and the Q4 guide fell short of both.
AWS: The Best Quarter In Five Years Wasn’t Enough
On its own, AWS was strong: revenue rose 39.3% to $46.0 billion, a $184 billion run rate and its fastest growth in nearly five years. Jassy even handed the bulls the line they were waiting for, projecting AWS growth of “over 40%” in both 2027 and 2028. Recall that Schilsky’s whole complaint going in was that the Street’s 2027 AWS estimate of +35% was “waaay too low.”
But the margin went the wrong way, slipping to 38.7% from 39.4% in Q2, against a buyside that wanted the low 40s. And the question we flagged in the preview, how much of the sold-out capacity actually came online given the Nvidia racks collecting dust in warehouses and Amazon walking away from Loudoun County, got no answer in the release.
Retail, Ads And The Missing Anthropic Gain
Retail was fine: North America sales rose 6% and international 8% ex-FX, roughly in line. Advertising was not: growth slowed to 12% ex-FX, which Amazon blamed on Prime Day “timing anomalies” while guiding to high-teens growth in Q4. That will feed straight into the agent debate, after Amazon blocked Meta’s Muse and Deutsche warned that agent-led shopping could eat into Sponsored Products. Schilsky “guaranteed” the agent question would come up on the call, and warned that punting “will NOT go over well.”
As for the EPS miss, blame the absence of an Anthropic windfall: last year’s Q3 included $9.5 billion of pre-tax gains on the stake, while this year non-operating items were a $1.2 billion drag, including that tripled interest bill.
Why This Stock Never Works, Part II
Going in, Amazon was one of the most crowded longs in tech (8/10 on Goldman’s TMT desk gauge, 9/10 on UBS’s sentiment scale), and JPMorgan’s Schilsky had the clearest diagnosis of the problem:
“AMZN has been one of the most frustrating stocks for the largest cohort of investors this year… Street estimates for 2027 AWS are too low. Comically low… As a result, investors across the ecosystem who have been trained to buy major expected KPI revisions see AMZN as an easy beat-and-raise story. But everyone knows that. It’s a BIG part of the reason the stock isn’t working.“
Tonight Amazon delivered the AWS acceleration and even the 2027-28 growth talk, and the stock still fell 12%. Because, as we wrote in our preview this afternoon, the Q3 numbers were always going to be the easy part; the hard part was the bill. The bill came in at $77 billion of capex in one quarter, $33.5 billion of cash burn, and $48 billion of new debt. We’ll allow ourselves a modest victory lap.
The stock “never works” because every dollar of AWS upside comes with more than a dollar of new spending attached. Tonight it was closer to four.
Much more in the full JPM “Earnings Preview Bonanza” and Goldman’s “US eCommerce Q3’26 Preview”, both available to pro subs.
END
Intel Shares Crash Most On Record
Friday, Oct 30, 2026 – 09:56 AM
Summary:
- Intel Shares Crash Most On Record
- Intel Crashes 25% As “Surprisingly Severe PC Correction” Shocks Wall Street
Shares Crash
Intel shares cratered about 29.7% during regular US trading, marking their steepest intraday decline in Bloomberg data going back to 1982. The selloff eclipsed the August 2024 earnings collapse and the stock’s worst single-session drops during the Covid panic, global financial crisis, dot-com bust and 1987 crash.
Earnings
AI infrastructure stocks tumbled in premarket trading in New York after disappointing results from Amazon and Intel. Amazon is down about 7% following Thursday’s earnings report, as cash burn surged and weak guidance spooked investors.
Shifting focus to Intel, shares are down 25% in premarket trading. If losses carry into the cash session and exceed 26%, the stock could be on track for its worst intraday decline in Bloomberg data going back to 1982.
For traders just waking up to the Intel bloodbath on their terminals, Thursday’s outlook fell well below Bloomberg consensus expectations as weak PC demand and supply constraints overshadowed surging data-center sales.
Intel expects fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion, compared with analysts’ estimates of $17.05 billion. Adjusted earnings are projected at 25 cents a share versus expectations of 43 cents, while adjusted gross margin is forecast at 38%, below the 42.8% consensus.
The weak outlook overshadowed third-quarter adjusted earnings of 52 cents a share, which beat estimates of 41 cents. Revenue rose 21% to $16.51 billion, roughly matching expectations.
The results showed a massive divergence between Intel’s businesses: Data Center & AI revenue surged 78% to $7.32 billion in the third quarter, exceeding the $6.67 billion estimate. But Client Computing sales fell 5.1% to $8.10 billion, missing expectations of $8.82 billion.
“Despite near-term headwinds affecting the broader PC industry, we continue to see robust demand for CPUs and more broadly, for all our computing platforms in the long term,” CEO Lip-Bu Tan said.
CFO David Zinsner said, “Looking ahead, we see the PC slowdown continuing at least through the first half of next year.”
Morgan Stanley analysts called the quarter a setback driven by a “surprisingly severe PC correction” and company-specific server issues. They also said, “Server CPU also slightly lower amid supply issues around the Israel fab accident and the ongoing substrate shortage.”
Vital Knowledge analysts called the outlook “pretty horrible, and the stock will undoubtedly get crushed, although it would be much worse if Data Center/AI caused the weakness (it’s not) as opposed to PCs.”
“AI, which is why people are bulled up on INTC, is killing PCs, a business that still contributes a big chunk of the company’s top line, as the data center boom drives up the price of memory, causing ASPs to rise which is hurting demand,” Vital Knowledge analysts said.
Citi semiconductor analyst Atif Malik offered clients his first take on the earnings and outlook:
Intel reported strong beat in the Sep-Q but provided weak Dec-Q outlook due to: a) an accident-causing Fab 28 shutdown in Israel or ~$300M/~200bps revs/GM% impact in both Q4/Q1, b) weaker PC demand, and c) supply availability.
Overall, we remain believers in Intel technology and Lip-Bu’s foundry vision but expect the debate on the stock to shift more towards Intel’s ability to unlock enough manufacturing capacity and external foundry customers fast enough to translate strong data center demand into earnings growth.
We cut our CY26/27/28 EPS sharply ~27c/96c/$1.69 and lower TP to $100 on revised SOTP analysis. Keep Buy.
Here is Goldman’s take:
INTC: DCAI Revenues solid, but focus on PC weakness (and cautious forward commentary) driving 4Q guide below. Stock -25% in pre.
Quarterly results were above the Street: Intel reported revenue of $16.5 bn, below GS at $17.0 bn and in line with the Street at $16.4 bn. Gross margin of 44.1% was well above GS at 42.7% and the Street at 41.9%. Operating margin of 19.6% was above GS at 17.9% and the Street at 16.5%. Reported non-GAAP operating EPS of $0.52 was above GS at $0.47 and the Street at $0.39. CCG revenue of $8.1 bn was below GS at $9.0 bn and the Street at $8.9 bn. DCAI revenue of $7.3 bn was above GS at $7.1 bn and the Street at $6.6 bn. Intel Foundry revenue of $6.7 bn was above GS at $6.1 bn and the Street at $6.0 bn.
Datacenter CPU strength: Intel’s DCAI segment grew 17% QoQ and 78% YoY, driven by strength in general-purpose server demand as well as agentic AI. Going forward, Intel sees an accelerating server CPU market being driven by agentic AI with sustained unit strength and higher ASPs – with units expected to grow over 30% in 2026 and 2027 – and a TAM of ~$200bn by 2030. The company expects to see mid-teens sequential growth in DCAI for 4Q as additional supply comes on line, as the company continues to run in a capacity shortage position.
Weakening PC market: Management pointed to a meaningfully weaker PC environment extending into 2027, with limited IT budgets, elevated inventories and memory constraints weighing on demand. Intel expects 2026 PC units to decline ~12%, followed by another ~10% TAM decline in 2027, with the weakness skewed toward 1H as customers aggressively reduce purchases to align inventory with consumption. Client revenue is expected to fall ~20% QoQ in 4Q, with the inventory correction extending through 1Q and potentially into 2Q, alongside normal seasonal pressure…
4Q guidance is well below the Street. Intel guided 4Q revenue and gross margin well below the Street. Revenue was guided to $15.5 bn at the midpoint, which is well below GS at $18.0 bn and the Street at $17.0 bn. Non-GAAP gross margin was guided to 38%, which is far below GS at 43.6% and the Street at 42.5%. Non-GAAP EPS was guided to $0.25 which is also below GS at $0.46 and the Street at $0.43. GIR full note
Intel shares plunged 25% in premarket trading. 
If losses exceed 26% by the close of the cash session, the decline could mark the stock’s worst single-day performance in Bloomberg data going back to 1982.
Analysts tracked by Bloomberg have an average 12-month price target of $95.42.
Read: “The Great Tech Unwind: Nasdaq Hits Make-Or-Break Levels.”
KING NEWS
| The King Report October 30, 2026 Issue 7859 | Independent View of the News |
| US Q3 GDP was better than expected because of a big, unrealistic decline in the GDP Price Index to 3.0% in Q3 from 5.6% in Q2. +3.5% was consensus. Yes, Virginia, this is a crafted report for the Midterms! Q3 GDP 3.4%, 3.2% exp; Consumer Spending +3.8%, 3.4% exp; Business Investment (AI spending) +12.7%; Real Final Sales to private domestic purchasers +4.9%. PCE +2.1%, 3.4% exp; Core PCE +2.5%, 2.8% exp. https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-3rd-quarter-2026 Gross Private Dometic Investment contributed 3.27 percentage points to GDP, with 1.78 pps from Nonresidential. Imports subtracted 2.77 pps from GDP; Government, because of the election, added 90 pps to GDP, with Federal adding 91 pps. Sept PCE 0.5% m/m & 3.6% y/y, 0.3% & 3.4% exp; Sept Core PCE 0.3% m/m & 3.1% y/y; 0.3% m/m & 3.0% y/y exp. Why is Sept PCE and Core PCE higher than expected but Q3 inflation metrics in the GDP MUCH lower than expected? This is the last significant economic report before the Midterms. @biancoresearch: What’s going on with gas prices? Since gas prices are highly seasonal, it may help to look at them seasonally. This chart shows prices each year (January 1st to December 31st) back to 2004.We have never seen gas prices this high in the autumn. https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/2115145941347082405 Government can keep trying to gaslight Americans about inflation, but the reality of their checkbooks trumps the gaslighting and deceitful government inflation metrics. Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE Index +2.8% Annualized in September vs August +2.0% @ces921: Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation showing signs of re-acceleration and broadening out in the September print. What the data shows Above 3%: 52.6% of the basket in September, up from 29.5% in August. That’s the second-highest reading in 13 months, after May at 55.2%. But this series alternates: 31.5% in June, 49.9% in July, 29.5% in August, 52.6% in September. On a 3-month average it’s 44.0%, against 44.9% in the prior three months and 41.7% for the past year. It’s an elevated plateau, not a clear acceleration. The cleaner signal is what’s near target. Only 6.3% of the basket rose at 0 to 2%, the lowest in the series, down from 35.5% a year ago. The whole 0 to 3% band is 21.8%, against 48.1% a year ago. The distribution is splitting: a quarter of the basket is falling (led by prescription drugs at -14%) and half is running above 3%. Very little is sitting near 2%. That’s what sticky inflation looks like underneath. Trimmed mean: 1m annualized trimmed mean PCE rises from 2% last month to 2.8% this month Bonds are rallying today on back of concerns about the AI credit stress doing the Fed’s job for them because clearly, they aren’t looking to do it on their own. Initial Jobless Claims 194k, 198k exp; Continuing Claims 1.7901m, 1.72m exp. Nvidia Chief Seen as Target of Chinese Spy Plot – NYTA Chinese businesswoman who had a close relationship with Jensen Huang was found to be passing intelligence to Beijing. President Trump was briefed and took no action… A top executive at a Singapore-based data center company was under scrutiny for possibly steering advanced Nvidia A.I. chips to China. And now American officials had concluded that she was a Chinese intelligence asset, funneling information to Beijing. But what came next was even more alarming. Surveillance of the executive, Alice Huang or Huang Le, a Chinese citizen, revealed that she had developed a close relationship with Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s chief executive… Roughly a year ago, Mr. Trump was briefed about the intelligence findings, which have not been previously reported, and chose not to do anything with the information. Mr. Trump has been wary of disrupting Nvidia’s chip sales, which are helping to drive the economy and the stock market, and of complicating the trading relationship with China… The close relationship between the president and Mr. Huang has impeded efforts to clamp down on Nvidia’s chip sales abroad, current and former U.S. officials said…https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/us/politics/nvidia-china-jensen-huang-trump.html On Thursday, Google, which sank as much as 13.34% (281.53 low), weighed on stocks. Caterpillar dropped 7% after disappointing Q4 sales guidance. NVDA fell to 212.08, -3.53 pts, at 9:55 ET and then rallied. If the WH isn’t concerned about China-NVDA espionage, why should investors care? The above NY Times story claims that NVDA CEO Huang avoided politics until 2025. He then started schmoozing and regularly visiting DJT. Plus, Huang contributed $20 million to Trump’s Ballroom Fund. The S&P 500 Index opened 44.37 pts lower on Google and fell to a daily low of 7699.25, -48.23 pts, at 9:35 ET. The index then stair stepped modestly higher until it hit 7732.21 at 11:34 ET. The S&P 500 rolled over and fell to 7690.94 at 13:54 ET. The S&P 500 Index then plodded up to 7720.39 at 16:00 ET. 7-Year Note Auction ($44B) 4.894% matched WI, Indirect Bids (foreign) 57.8%, Direct bids 32.8%, Dealers 9.4%, lowest since Dec. 2025 @wallstengine: Trump Media has reportedly signed Bloomberg, Susquehanna and Jump Trading for faster access to President Trump’s Truth Social posts. Note: The service costs $70K – $100K or more per month, though pricing for these specific deals hasn’t been disclosed. Positive aspects of previous session DJTA +0.96%; PHLX Housing Index +3.78%; USZs +1 1/32 at 16:17 ETSP Health Care +2.5%, Real Estate +2.25%, Consumer Staples +1.64%, Utes 1.56%, Financials +1.52%, Industrials +1.0%, Materials +0.89%, Energy +0.42%; Dec Gasoline -0.7c at 16:21 ET Negative aspects of previous session S&P 500 -0.3%, DJIA -0.25%, Nasdaq -1.38%, Nas 100 -1.38%, SOX Index -1.42%SP Communication Services -6.6%, Info Tech -0.88%, Consumer Discretionary -0.63%Dec WTI +$0.03, Dec Brent +$0.75, Dec Diesel 0.03c at 16:16 ET Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will institutions continue to dump tech trading sardines on month end? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7714.51Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7732.21 (11:34 ET); 7690.94 (13:54 ET) Survey Finds Alcohol Consumption Remains at Historic LowJust 54% of American adults say they drink alcohol, as growing health concerns and declining consumption reshape drinking habits across the country.https://realtruth.media/gallup-alcohol-consumption-remains-at-historic-low/ WSJ: Hackers appeared to have plundered at least $1.7 billion Thursday from Binance in what would be the largest-ever cryptocurrency heist… AMZN EPS 1.89, 1.97 exp; Revenue $201.944B, $202.25B exp; Advertising revenue: $20.91B; AWS revenue $45.9B, $45.68B expected; Amazon was -7.31% at 19:47 ET. INTC beat on earnings but sees a PC slowdown lasting into next year. Intel was -23.0% at 19:46 ET. @HedgeyeAM: U.S. debt held by the public hit about 100% of GDP, the highest since 1946https://x.com/HedgeyeAM/status/2115868320239169892 Fed Balance Sheet: -$7.969B on MBS -$11.665B; Reserves: -$68.837B Today – Trades want to play for the Friday Rally and the manipulation to game October performance. But Amazon and Intel’s large declines in after-hour trading are killing equity futures. There has been no meaningful bounce for Intel or Amazon. Stocks should be under severe pressure in early NYSE trading. Large players have been selling tech trading sardines and rotating into stable demand stocks. However, tech trading sardines are still grossly over-owned by institutional investors and hedge funds. Will tech trading sardine holders be able to manipulate those stocks higher to game Oct performance while some institutions are unloading them? Can bulls and manipulators overcome INTC & AMZN? ESZs -46.25; NQZs -443.50, USZs +18/32, Dec WTI +$0.82, Dec Gas +0.79¢, ¥/$ 157.823 at 20:00 ET Trump canceled scheduled rallies for Kansas on Saturday & Iowa on Sunday. Is DJT finalizing attack plans for Iran after the Midterm Elections on Tuesday? Expected earnings per Nasdaq: XOM 3.90, CVX 4.78, GD 4.14, CL .92https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/earnings S&P 500 50-day MA: 7698; 100-day MA: 7613; 200-day MA: 7305 (Close 7720.39, -0.3%)Nasdaq 100 50-day MA: 29,812; 100-day MA: 29,559; 200-day MA: 29,912 (Close 29,402.51, -1.38%) DJIA 50-day MA: 52,253, 100-day MA: 52,342; 200-day MA: 50,577 (Close 52,342.56, -0.25%%) (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) | |
XXSWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
GREG HUNTER…
