EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 3,885.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/30/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 11/03/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
072 H GOLDMAN 64
099 H DEUTSCHE BANK AG 1153
152 C DORMAN TRADING, LLC 1
190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 9
323 C HSBC 14
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 78
365 C MAREX CAPITAL MARKET 2 296
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 170 894
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 79 46
905 C ADM 4
TOTAL: 1,405 1,405
MONTH 4267
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOVEMBER./2026: 1405 CONTRACTS NOTICES FOR 140,500 OZ or 4.370 TONNES
total notices so far: 420,700 contracts FOR 420,700 OZ OR 13.085 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 22 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.110 MILLION OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1186CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 5.930 million oz
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $68.40 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL INSTEAD OF FRAUDULENT GLD..SMALL CHANGES AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.65 TONNES
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $1.55 AT THE SLV..HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 3.34 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//
NOV: INITIAL STANDING 5.820 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 365 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 1.825 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 7.665 MILLION OZ//
NOV. 6.36 MILLION OZ
NOV: INITIAL STANDINGl 10.566 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 892 CONTRACTSS FOR 89200 OZ//(2.774 TONNES)//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.340 TONNES
GOLD PRICE LOSS OF 129.60
NOV INITIAL STANDING 10.566 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 892 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 89,200 OZ OR 2.774 TONNES///NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.340 TONNES
NOV// 10.51 MILLION OZ
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 39.01 PTS OR 1.08%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 98.90 PTS OR 0.42 %
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 208.25 PTS OR 0.33%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.04%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 6.6484
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.6463 Oil DOWN TO 99.28 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 108.49 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING 6.6484OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.6463 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGEROFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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NOV 0//SO FAR
NOV 0
THE SPECS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE ( IT FELL BY $129.60
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 1 ENTRIES i) Out of HSBC 128.600 oz 9 kilobars total withdrawal 128.600 oz |
| Deposit to theDealerInventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold 0 ENTRIES xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 1405 CONTRACTS 140,500 OZ 4.3711TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 22Contracts 2200 OZ 0.0687 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 4267notices 426,700OZ 13.085TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
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DEPOSITS:CUSTOMER ACCT
ENTRIES: 0
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comex withdrawals
1 ENTRIES
i) Out of HSBC 128.600 oz
9 kilobars
total withdrawal 128.600 oz
adjustments: 4 all dealer to customer
a) Asahi 40,703.166 oz
b) JPMorgan 8573.580 oz
c) Manfra 66,358.903 oz
d) Stonex: 6655.257 oz
total adjusted out: 122,590.805 oz or 3.8 tonnes
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF NOVOI STANDS AT 1427 CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 1970 CONTRACTS.
ON FRIDAY WE HAD 339,700 OZ( 10.566 TOONNES) STAND FOR DELIVERY: TODAY, 428,900 OZ FOR A GAIN OF 89,200 OZ 892 CONTRACTS//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.340 TONNES OF GOLD
.
DECEMBER, THE LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR, ITS OI FALLS BY 5663 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 269.498.
JANUARY RISES BY 0 CONTRACTS TO 663 OI
.
We had 1405 contracts filed for today representing 140,500 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 170 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1405 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 894 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NON /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4,267) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV ( 1427 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 1405x 100 oz per contract) equals 428,900OZ OR(13,340Tonnes of gold)
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NOV. /2026. contract month,we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4,267) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV1427 contracts minus the number of notices served upon today 1405x 100 oz per contract) equals 428,900OZ OR(13.340Tonnes of gold)
new total of gold standing in NOV becomes 13.340TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR NOV: 13.340TONNES WHICH IS NOW VERY STRONG FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV/
FRIDAY VOLUME: 275,787 GOOD
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,718,115.705 oz 53.44tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,718,115.705.tonnes oz 53.44 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 23,206,754.163oz//
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 14,585.911.966tonnes (456.824 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 8,516,842.397oz.
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON 12,867,797oz ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
400.242 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
NOV DELIVERY MONTH
NOV 2
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries i) Out of CNT 147,143.073 oz ii) Out of Delaware 402,158.411 oz TOTAL WITHDRAWAL: 549,301.484 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | ENTRIES: 0 |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 22 CONTRACT(S) ( 110,000OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 347Contracts (1.735 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1186 contracts 5.930MILLIONoz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
ENTRY:0
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
0 ENTRIES:
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals:
2 ENTRIES
i) Out of CNT 147,143.073 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 402,158.411 oz
TOTAL Withdrawal: 549,301.484 oz
adjustments : 3// all dealer to customer
a) Asahi 80,618.400
b) CNT 80,055.978 oz
c) Manfra: 29,252.588 oz
total adjusted out of dealer: 192,926.968 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 104.093 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 335.211Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR NOV
FRONT MONTH: SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS: 369 FOR A LOSS OF 1139 CONTRACTS .
ON FRIDAY WE HAD 5.820 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY. TODAY 7.645 MILLION OZ FOR A GAIN OF 1.825 MILLION OZ OR A QUEUE JUMP OF 365 CONTRACTS.
.
DECEMBER LOST 63 CONTRACTS UP TO AN OI OF 82,539
JANUARY GAINED 37 C0NTRACTS TO 874 OI
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 22 or 0.110 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volumeFRIDAY; 79,123 fair/
AND NOW NOV DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1186 X5,000 oz = 5.930MILLION oz.
Then we take the difference between the front month of NOV. and the number of notices filed for today x 5000 to give us our standing
Thus the standings for silver for the NOV 2026 contract month: (1186Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of NOV (369 minus number of notices served upon today ( 22x 5000 oz) equals silver standing for the NOV .contract month equating to 7.645 MILLION OZ t
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 104.093million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 125.145 ///335.211million: 37.35%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
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NOV2 WITH GOLD UP $68.40 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.65TONNNES
OCT 30/ WITH GOLD DOWN $129.60 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.08TONNNES
0CT 29 2026 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.45 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 2,56 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043,34 TONNNES
OCT 28/2026 WITH GOLD DOWN $23,45 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.20 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD..INVENTORY REST AT 1041,65 TONNES
0CT 27/ WITH GOLD UP $38.30//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD.. A WITHDDRAWAL OF ,65 TONNES OF GOLD AT THE GLD..INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040,80 TONNES
OCT 26/ WITH GOLD UP $28,40 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GKD.. A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAK IF 16.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD..INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.47 TONNES
OCT 23//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1057.62 TONNES
OCT 22//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $87.75 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.18 TONNES
OCT 21//2026/WITH GOLD UP $8.55 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD.// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 20//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.05 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 19//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 5.13 TONNES OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 16//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.91 TONNES
OCT 15//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.21 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.20 TONNES
OCT 14//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $66.25 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.41 TONNES
OCT 13//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF OF 2.281TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.411 TONNES
OCT 12//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.13 TONNES
OCT 9//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.562 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.411 TONNES
OCT 8//2026/WITH GOLD UP $16.85 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.703 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.873 TONNES
OCT 7//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.27 TONNES
OCT 6//2026/WITH GOLD UP $30.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A DEPOSIT OF 0.754 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.27 TONNES
OCT 5//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.854 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.696 TONNES
OCT 2//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $43.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A DEPOSIT OF 0.854 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.55 TONNES
OCT 1//2026/WITH GOLD UP $19.55 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.711 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.696 TONNES
SEPT 30//2026/WITH GOLD UP $7.80 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A DEPOSIT OF 2.847 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1057.407 TONNES
SEPT 29//2026/WITH GOLD UP $11.75 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.56 TONNES
SEPT 28//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $150.20 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.56 TONNES
SEPT 25//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $150.20 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.56 TONNES
SEPT 24//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD://:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.84 TONNES
SEPT 23//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $58.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.41 TONNES
SEPT 22//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.41 TONNES
SEPT 21//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 2.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.10 TONNES
SEPT 18//2026/WITH GOLD UP $26.45 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 0.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.84 TONNES
SEPT 17//2026/WITH GOLD UP $14.05 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.99 TONNES
SEPT 16//2026/WITH GOLD UP $53.40 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A DEPOSIT OF 2.86 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.28 TONNES
SEPT 15//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.45 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.353 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.420 TONNES
SEPT 14//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $54.50 /SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.353 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1047.420 TONNES
SEPT 11//2026/WITH GOLD UP $1.05 /SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD://A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.353 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.277 TONNES
/
GLD INVENTORY: 1041.65 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
NOV 2// WITH SILVER UP $1.55// HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.34 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.021 MILLION OZ
OCT 30// WITH SILVER DOWN $3.06// NO CHANGES AT THE SKV/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.681 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25: HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.334 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.681 MILLLION OZ
OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTOR RESTS AT 498,327 MILLION OZ
OCT 27/ WITH SILVER UP $0.25 NO CHANCES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.327 MILLION OZ
OCT 26/ WITH SILVER UP 0.25 SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 451,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.327 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.94 : :NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.876 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.72 : : SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 632,000 OZ INTO SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.876 MILLION OZ
OCT 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28 : : STRONG CHANGES AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 858,000 OZ INTO SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.508 MILLION OZ
OCT 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 : :NO CHANGES A WITHDRAWAL OF 943,000 OZ INTO OUT OF SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.650 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP $1.19 : :MEGA HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 4.374 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.593 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER UP $1.19 : :SMALL CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 406,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.219 MILLION OZ
OCT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.25 : :SMALL CHANGES A WITHDRAWAL OF 135,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.948 MILLION OZ
OCT 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.97 : :HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 722,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.813 MILLION OZ
OCT 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51 : :HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 722,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.948 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.62 : :SMALL CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 948,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.226 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.74 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 532,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.278 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.36 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 451,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.910 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.31 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.361 MILLION OZ
OCT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.87 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.361 MILLION OZ
OCT 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.74 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.578 MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.57 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.400 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.578 MILLION OZ
SEPT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.55 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 994,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.978 MILLION OZ
SEPT 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 566,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.984 MILLION OZ
SEPT 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.91 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.542 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.436 MILLION OZ
SEPT 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.91 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.542 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.436 MILLION OZ
SEPT 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.96 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.813 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.533 MILLION OZ
SEPT 23 WITH SILVER UP $1.58 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.716 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.346 MILLION OZ
SEPT 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 496.062 MILLION OZ
SEPT 21 WITH SILVER UP $1.04 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.558 MILLION OZ
SEPT 18 WITH SILVER UP $1.04 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.558 MILLION OZ
SEPT 17 WITH SILVER UP $1.10 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.265 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 489.558 MILLION OZ
SEPT 16 WITH SILVER UP $0.95 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 813,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.823 MILLION OZ
SEPT 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 : :HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 813,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.636 MILLION OZ
SEPT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.91 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.449 MILLION OZ
SEPT 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.50 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.449 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 503.021MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF//JOHN RUBINO//RAVEN
JOHN RUBINO
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE//KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT/295
END
5. COMMODITY REPORT ///GOLD
FRBNY SHORTED 152 TONNES OF GOLD ON FRIDAY AND THAT WAS THE CATALYST TO CRATER GOLD BELOW 3900.00
“Fear Of Sovereign Liquidity Management”: Goldman Spots Who Dumped $19.5 Billion In Gold Futures Before The $4,000 Break
Thought for 13s
Goldman Sachs analysis (as reported by ZeroHedge on November 1, 2026) attributes a large ~$19.5 billion dump of gold futures to sovereign/liquidity-driven selling ahead of gold’s break below $4,000. Gold’s typical role is to rise amid falling real yields, equity weakness, or geopolitical stress (e.g., Middle East tensions). In the recent period it faced supportive conditions yet sold off instead, with the futures liquidation cited as a key near-term driver of the drop through the psychologically important $4,000 level. Market commentary around the ZeroHedge piece and related discussion emphasizes that retail or typical speculative flow does not usually move in that size. The selling is framed as forced “sovereign liquidity management”—entities (central banks or related sovereign actors) needing dollars or cash quickly and using gold futures as a liquid source rather than ideologically abandoning the metal. This fits a broader pattern noted in earlier 2026 analysis: temporary forced sovereign sales (for energy, currency defense, or other liquidity needs) can pressure prices short-term even while longer-term structural demand (including ongoing central-bank buying in many cases) remains intact. Such liquidations are often viewed as clearing weak or forced hands rather than signaling the end of gold’s fundamental supports. Key context from public discussion:
- The scale (~$19.5B) and timing just before the $4,000 break point to non-retail, deadline-driven or liquidity-need selling rather than pure conviction shorting.
- Futures markets can transmit large paper flows quickly into price, while physical/ETF demand has sometimes held up better in similar episodes.
- Gold had already seen volatility and corrections (e.g., notable October weakness in some reports) even as certain longer-term buyers remained active.
The full ZeroHedge article detailing Goldman’s specific spotting of the flows is paywalled. Public discussion treats the episode as evidence of temporary sovereign cash needs overriding gold’s usual defensive behavior in the near term.
END
CRYPTOCURRENCY:
Binance Plugs 90% Of $6.3 Billion Hack Hole With Its Own Cash, Says Withdrawals Reopen Sunday
Saturday, Oct 31, 2026 – 07:10 PM
Binance says it has replaced 90% of the roughly $6.3 billion stolen from its hot wallets on Thursday, and that withdrawals, suspended since the attack, remain on track to reopen Sunday.
“Binance will absorb the financial impact of these stolen funds, not our users,” the exchange said in its third recovery update on Saturday, adding that all BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD and ZEC balances are now “fully backed 100%.” The remaining 10% sits in smaller tokens that Binance says are “less liquid” and will take longer to buy through the market and OTC desks.
The money is coming out of Binance’s own pockets: a partial draw on its Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU), a slice of its futures insurance fund and its corporate treasury. On Friday the exchange said it had set aside more than $6.34 billion in company funds, $5 billion of it held in the exact tokens that were taken. Binance says it will refill SAFU to about $1 billion, and that its futures insurance fund remains above the level its risk rules require.
None of that is money recovered from the attacker. TRM Labs counted about $2.7 billion frozen as of late Thursday by Tether, Circle, Ripple, World Liberty Financial and Arbitrum’s Security Council, while the attacker still held more than 420,000 ETH and 18,270 BTC, worth roughly $2.4 billion, beyond any issuer’s reach. Chainalysis puts the frozen total at about $2.8 billion; Binance says about $3 billion.
Both TRM and Chainalysis attribute the theft to TraderTraitor, the North Korean hacking unit the FBI blamed for the $1.5 billion Bybit hack in February 2025, as we reported. At roughly $6.36 billion by TRM’s count, the Binance haul is about four times Bybit’s. Binance itself has not named a culprit.
Binance’s own account of how it happened has shifted. Its first update said the breach may have involved “a compromised DevOps engineer’s laptop, which allowed an attacker to gain access to a service container.” By Friday, it said the investigation “has uncovered additional points of breach,” while adding that it has found no evidence wallet private keys were leaked.
Meanwhile, what’s this?
TRM’s on-chain analysis goes further. On Ethereum, the attacker used an EIP-7702 delegation backed by 50 pre-signed authorizations to turn a Binance hot wallet into a sweeper it controlled, while Binance wallets on the other nine chains sent funds to the attacker through ordinary signed transfers. “In TRM’s assessment, this points to a compromise of Binance’s hot wallet signing infrastructure,” the firm wrote.
The attacker raced the freezes, selling about 325 million USDT to market makers for roughly 122,300 ETH at a discount of more than 10%, and borrowing ETH against USDT on Aave before Aave froze the affected markets. Chainalysis says the stolen funds are being cycled back and forth among addresses, and TRM expects the next leg to run through cross-chain bridges, swap services and OTC brokers.
Withdrawals will return in phases, subject to security checks. Binance took a fresh proof-of-reserves snapshot at midnight UTC on Saturday and says users holding the ten fully backed tokens will be able to verify their balances are at least 1:1 backed once the full zero-knowledge proof is generated, which it estimates by Tuesday.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 39.01 PTS OR 1.08%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 98.90 PTS OR 0.42 %
Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 208.25 PTS OR 0.33%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.04%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 6.6484
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.6463 Oil DOWN TO 99.28 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 108.49 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING 6.6484OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.6463 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGEROFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 6.6484
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.6463
1A.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 98.90 PTS OR 0.42%
1 B. SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 39.01 PTS OR 1.08%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 208.25 BASIS PTS OR 0.33 %
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL DOWN TO 99.28
BRENT; 108.45
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON
USA dollar INDEX DOWN 22 BASIS PTS TO 101.53 EURO RISES TO 1.1208 UP 55 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.769 UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 157.92… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.877 UP 5 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN //CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP (6.6484 AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.6463
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA. CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. GOVERMENT ASKED JAPAN PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE FUNDS TO BUY MORE JAPANESE BONDS AND REPATRIATE ALL FOREIGN BONDS.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN for Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yieldsLOWER on all fronts in the EU German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +3.3180 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN AT 4.463 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.9390
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 4.2566%
3j Gold at $3904.00 /Silver at: 50..17 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 33/ 100 roubles/81.00
3m oil (WTI) into the 99 dollar handle for WTI and 108 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 157.92 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.769% UP 1 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS TO BE REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.877 UP 5 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.81.58 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9189
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.9260 UP 1 BASIS PTS…NOW BELOW 5.00%
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.2870 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.6080 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 49.97 UP 15 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.2455 DOWN 6 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.6680 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
10 YEAR FRENCH BOND YIELD; 4.948 //UP 1 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.782 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.5080 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Rise As Oil Slides Below $100 On Trump Iran Diplomacy Report, Tech Bounces Ahead Of Midterms
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 08:10 AM
US futures are higher as a slide in oil, a tentative tech rebound and some old-fashioned seasonality lift sentiment on the eve of the midterms: crude tumbled more than 4% after Axios reported that Trump told Netanyahu he wants to give diplomacy with Iran more time before resuming strikes, chips bounced after Friday’s 7.2% SOX puke, and Chinese stocks jumped as Beijing convened yet another market rescue meeting; as a result Nasdaq futures are up almost 1% and WTI is back below $100. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.3% higher at 7,638, well off session highs, while Nasdaq futures rise 0.6% to 28,758 and Dow futures are 0.4% higher. On Friday the S&P fell 1.8% and the Nasdaq 100 tumbled 3.5%, the worst day for both since June, capping a month in which the Nasdaq 100 lost 6.7% while the equal-weight S&P gained 5%. In premarket trading, Mag 7 names are mostly higher led by Nvidia and Alphabet, which opened the books on a seven-part bond offering spanning two to 19 years; Apple dips ahead of its earnings after the close. Semis and memory names rebound, while energy names slide with crude. The day’s driver is oil (again): Brent dropped as much as 4.4% to around $108.40 and WTI to $99.59 after the Axios report, and despite Goldman raising its year-end Brent forecast to $105 from $90; Iran’s FM said Qatar-mediated talks are making progress while Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered commanders to prepare for renewed confrontation, so the post-midterm strike window remains very much open. Treasuries are mixed with the curve pivoting flatter: long-end yields are about 2bp lower on the oil slump while the 10Y is little changed near 4.92%; gilts outperform, with the 10Y yield down about 5bp to 5.23%, the lowest since Sept. 23, on lower oil and gas prices, while OATs edge higher despite Fitch cutting France’s outlook to negative in an unscheduled move. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index drops 0.2% to a one-week low and the euro jumps 0.5% to 1.1214, its biggest gain in more than two weeks. In commodities, gold rises about 0.6% toward $3,900 and silver climbs back above $50, while LME copper gains 0.8%. Bitcoin trades just below $78,000 as Binance customers pull almost $5 billion after the exchange reopened following last week’s record hack. US economic data slate includes the October final S&P Global manufacturing PMI (9:45am), ISM manufacturing and September construction spending (10am) and the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer survey (2pm); Fed speaker slate includes Chicago’s Goolsbee (11:15am). Treasury sells $95 billion of 13-week and $82 billion of 26-week bills at 11:30am. Apple and Palantir report after the close.
In premarket trading, Nvidia and Alphabet lead gains among the Mag 7 as tech stocks are set to rebound: Nvidia (NVDA) +1.0%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.7%, after opening the books on a seven-part offering spanning maturities from two to 19 years (Amazon +0.3%, Tesla +0.7%, Microsoft +0.4%, Meta Platforms (META) -0.6%, Apple (AAPL) -0.1%).
- Check Point Software (CHKP) drops 6% after the company reported revenue for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
- Crowdstrike (CRWD) rises 3% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the security software company to buy, seeing tailwinds related to AI.
- Estee Lauder (EL) gains 3% after reporting better—than-expected earnings and raising its outlook, the latest sign the beauty conglomerate’s turnaround effort is winning over consumers.
- Floor & Decor (FND) slips 1.6% after Goldman Sachs cut the recommendation to sell. The downgrade came after the flooring products supplier said comparable sales are down to start the fourth quarter.
- Geo Group (GEO) gains 3% after securing a contract from US Immigration and Customs Enforcement to provide support services at the 2,329-bed Big Spring Complex in Texas.
- Idexx Labs (IDXX) rises 6% after the animal health firm boosted its revenue guidance for the full year, following results for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO) rallies 50% after the biotech got accelerated FDA approval for Voceryq, an immunotherapy to treat adults with recurrent respiratory papillomatosis.
- Kosmos Energy (KOS) falls 7% after the oil and gas company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share that missed the average analyst estimate as weather weighed on results.
- Marvell Technology (MRVL) climbs 1% after reaching a deal to buy Lumentum at an enterprise value $115 billion in a race to capitalize on the artificial intelligence boom. Lumentum (LITE) slips 1%.
- Okta (OKTA) rises 2% as the stock will replace Kenvue Inc. in the S&P 500 effective Wednesday.
- Once Upon a Farm (OFRM) falls 12% after the children’s nutritional food company said it will host a business update conference call/webcast at 8:30am NY time to discuss the company’s voluntary recall of its Tractor Wheels soft-baked bars due to potential choking hazard that was issued on Oct. 30.
In other corporate news, OpenAI cut its fundraising target by $10 billion to around $20 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation (down from $30 billion at $1.4 trillion last month), as the AI selloff and rival Anthropic’s impending public listing complicate efforts to round up commitments (which is the polite way of saying the circular financing merry-go-round is slowing down); Anthropic, meanwhile, plans a Japan share sale worth as much as $3.5 billion ahead of its Nasdaq listing. Alphabet is back in the euro bond market for the second time this year, testing investor appetite after stress in tech debt pushed sector spreads wider. Perion soars after agreeing to be bought by Affle 3i; Xcel Energy is offering $2 billion of convertible notes; OPay halted its NYSE IPO citing a regulatory inquiry; BP completed the $6 billion sale of Castrol; and TotalEnergies is buying an operated interest in two Malaysian gas fields. Precigen, which markets a rival RRP treatment, tumbled after Inovio’s approval.
Stocks are starting November on the front foot after Friday’s tech rout, helped by a slump in oil that is giving risk assets and bonds a lift alike ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections. As Bloomberg’s Jan-Patrick Barnert put it, the bounce is the easy part: seasonality favors the bulls, but tomorrow’s US midterms are anyone’s game. The S&P 500 has averaged a 2.1% gain in November over the past 20 years, and UBS already warned that the best month of the year meets near-record shorts, setting up a year-end squeeze.
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson sees a few “clearing events” ahead that could take stocks lower temporarily, creating a great opportunity for investors to pile back in, while Oaktree’s Howard Marks said the recent AI stumbles have somewhat burst the bubble of infallibility around the sector. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for chasing the bounce.
“The key question is whether we are seeing a temporary correction in the very popular technology trade, or maybe the beginning of a reassessment of all these AI-related plays,” said Chaltan Wang, a portfolio manager at HashKey Capital.
“The USD remains caught between AI and oil,” said Moh Siong Sim, FX strategist at OCBC Bank Singapore.
Meanwhile, the AI unwind has turned Apple into a safe haven: the company reclaimed the title of world’s most valuable on Friday and its correlation to the Nasdaq 100 has turned negative for the first time ever, which means tonight’s results and Palantir’s multiple will test how far Friday’s derating has to run.
On the midterms, Trump is already addressing the possibility of a setback, saying he may have to become “Mr. Veto” if Democrats win a majority; final NYT/Siena polls show Democrats leading in Senate battlegrounds Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Maine and Ohio. JPM’s Market Intel desk assigns 66% odds to a Blue Wave (Dem House and Senate), where it sees the S&P anywhere from down 25bp to up 50bp, vs 26% for a Split Congress (S&P +0.5% to +1%) and 7% for a Red Wave (+1% to +1.25%). Goldman’s Alec Phillips notes prediction markets imply a more than 90% chance that Democrats win the House and more than 65% for the Senate, and expects Trump “to announce new tariff increases after the election that would more than offset” any Democratic rollbacks (we laid out Goldman’s favorite trade if Democrats sweep last week, and Natixis’ view that a Democratic sweep could exorcise the AI bond bear).
JPM’s Andrew Tyler is sticking with his Tactically Bullish call despite the October carnage: the Positioning Intel team finds that when the Nasdaq 100 is within about 6% of its all-time high and suffers a 3.5%+ decline, the index tends to rebound about 3% the following week, and the effect is stronger when the drop happens on a Friday, suggesting de-grossing rather than a change in fundamental views. Tyler’s Monetization Menu favors a barbell of Tech and Cyclicals with a heavier weight on Cyclicals, and he flags that oil markets appear to have already priced a resumption of US-Iran hostilities, so “for Equity investors, adding some downside protection may be prudent.”
Over at Goldman, Lee Garrett writes that the desk sold a net $4.2 billion of tech delta on Friday, while SPX 12-month implied correlation sits near record lows around 20% and the forward P/E is about 19x, the lowest of 2026. Prime book gross leverage is 314.1% (97th percentile over five years) while net is just 73.6% (10th percentile), as “de grossing continued for a 3rd week and net remains low relative to still elevated gross”, confirming what we noted last week as hedge funds went underweight AI for the first time since 2023. Goldman’s Alexandre Privorotsky summed it up: “nobody really knows what to worry about”, adding that his gut says “we’re setting up for a painful year end rally… under owned, poorly participated in and impossible to chase.”
In Europe, OATs advance and outperform their German peers even after Fitch lowered its outlook on France, citing weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and a widening fiscal deficit; the OAT-Bund spread opened 1bp tighter at 164bp. ECB’s Makhlouf said the French government needs to fix its public finances and that every meeting is a live meeting, while ECB’s Kazimir warned markets may be underestimating the extent of further tightening needed. Separately, Germany is set to miss its November 1 gas storage target with reserves at 61.17% vs the 70% goal, confirming our article from the weekend, just as Dutch TTF hovers around €100/MWh.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is little changed, up 0.1% at 647.18 with 360 members up and 230 down, as travel and leisure outperforms after Ryanair’s results while energy lags with crude. Alstom plunges as much as 31% in Paris after cutting its margin forecast and warning of a significant free-cash outflow, and Roche slides after a UBS downgrade. JPM’s desk notes short covering of MidEast themes as ceasefire plays are bid, with Beta, Quality and Cyclicals leading and Value and Momentum lagging; Semis and Consumer outperform. Here are the biggest European movers:
- Fresenius shares are up as much as 3% after the German drugmaker entered a binding, exclusive development agreement with WuXi Biologics, granting access to as many as 37 biosimilar candidates over the next decade to expand its portfolio from 29 to up to 66 molecules.
- Vusion rises as much as 7.8% as Citi initiates with a buy rating and places the firm on a positive catalyst watch ahead of its upcoming capital markets day, which is seen as a potential catalyst for a re-rating.
- FirstGroup shares rise as much as 4.4 after the bus and rail services operator agreed the sale of assets to the West Yorkshire Combined Authority for £109 million.
- Medartis shares are up as much as 7.7% after the Swiss surgical-implants maker said it is confident of exceeding its full-year 2026 organic core sales growth guidance, driven by faster-than-expected adoption of the TOUCH thumb prosthesis in the US.
- Alstom shares fall as much as 31% in Paris after the train maker cut its adjusted Ebit margin forecast and warned of a significant free-cash outflow.
- Roche drops as much as 2% after the Swiss drugmaker was cut to neutral from buy at UBS.
- Bakkafrost falls as much as 6.4% after the salmon farmer delivers a significant miss on operational Ebit in the third quarter and guides for FY27 harvest below analyst expectations.
- Future shares drop as much as 5.3% after JPMorgan downgraded the media firm to neutral from overweight, seeing limited scope for outperformance given weak operational trends.
- NN Group slip as much as 1.1% before paring losses after the Dutch insurer named Tjeerd Bosklopper as its next CEO, succeeding David Knibbe who will step down next March.
Asian stocks erased early losses as a rebound in US futures and buying in tech names offset jitters over the AI trade, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index steady after falling as much as 0.7%. South Korea’s Kospi rose 2.3% (DB has it up 2.77%) on SK Hynix’s buyback and local fund support, after October exports surged 93.7% YoY. Chinese stocks jumped, with the CSI 300 up 1.3% and the Hang Seng up 0.5%, after reports that the PBOC, NFRA and CSRC will meet banks and brokers to discuss market support measures, the latest round of plunge protection, which shrugged off official PMIs that slipped into contraction (manufacturing 49.3, non-manufacturing 49.7). Japan’s Topix fell 0.5% while the Nikkei was choppy around flat as Kioxia plunged as much as 17% on a cautious memory outlook, even as Tokyo Electron climbed after its results; Taiwan’s Taiex fell 0.3%, Australia’s ASX 200 dropped 0.7% ahead of an expected RBA hike, and Singapore was the region’s worst performer, down 1.4%. Goldman’s desk noted the 2% Kospi bounce and Tokyo Electron’s 5% jump after guiding to 87% operating profit growth. Tokyo is closed on Tuesday for Culture Day.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.2% to a one-week low, the fourth straight daily decline per JPM, as G10 currencies broadly gain on the oil slide and rising odds of a Democratic sweep. The euro is the best performer, up 0.5% to 1.1214 (Newsquawk has a session peak at 1.1237) despite Fitch’s France move; the Swedish krona tops the pile, up 0.7%. The pound rises 0.4% to 1.3446 while the yen is the laggard, with USD/JPY near 157.7 after Finance Minister Katayama’s jawboning failed to move the needle. In EM, the zloty fell to a three-year low amid a political fight over the central bank, while oil importers’ currencies such as the rupee and rand gained.
In rates, Treasuries are mixed with the curve pivoting flatter around a little-changed 7-year sector, following similar price action in bunds; long-end yields are about 2bp lower with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads about 2bp flatter vs Friday’s close, and the 10Y is little changed near 4.92%. Long-end tenors, and stock futures, are supported by the oil slump. Gilts outperform by around 4bp as lower oil and gas prices help, while bunds are little changed and OATs edge higher despite Fitch. There are no coupon auctions this week (3-, 10- and 30-year sales resume next week), but Wednesday’s quarterly refunding is in focus, with Wall Street bracing for the biggest overhaul of Treasury sales guidance in years and some dealers expecting cuts to 20- and 30-year issuance; Goldman expects sizes of $58 billion in 3s, $42 billion in 10s and $25 billion in 30s. The IG dollar issuance slate is blank so far, with syndicate desks forecasting around $45 billion this week and $150 billion for November (Alphabet is busy in euros instead). Fed speaker focus is on Goolsbee at 11:15am, with futures pricing roughly 18bp of hikes by year-end and a December hike the base case.
“We might have found the ceiling for yields, at least in the near term,” said Goldman’s Vickie Chang, noting that the US 10y1m OIS nearly reached 5.2% at the early-October peak.
In commodities, WTI for December fell 4.4% to $99.59 and Brent for January dropped 4.4% to $108.42 by 5:09am, with Brent trading in a $108.26-112.41 range, after Axios said Trump favors more time for diplomacy; Iran’s Foreign Ministry said compressing its seven-day proposal into two days was a sign of goodwill and that “America must make a decision”, while the IRGC claimed 11 oil tankers have caught fire in Hormuz since Oct. 25. Goldman raised its December 2026 Brent forecast to $105 from $90 and its 2027 average to $88 from $80, estimating a risk premium of about $27 that explains most of October’s rally. OPEC+ kept December quotas unchanged. Dutch TTF is down 3.8% and clings to €100/MWh. Spot gold trades in a $3,891-3,919 range and silver is back above $50, while 3M LME copper rises 0.8% to about $14,260/t.
US economic data slate includes the October final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am, est. 56.0), ISM manufacturing (10am, est. 54.5), ISM prices paid (est. 77.2) and September construction spending (10am, est. 0.3%), and the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (2pm). Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee (11:15am). Earnings before the open include Berkshire Hathaway, Marriott, Estee Lauder, Idexx and Check Point, while Apple, Palantir, Vertex, ON Semi, Roku, Williams and Diamondback report after the close.
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- Oil dropped after a report said President Trump wants to give diplomacy with Iran more time before potentially resuming strikes following Tuesday’s midterm elections. Both Brent and WTI declined about 3%. BBG
- Iran said it could have Hormuz reopened within 2 days if the US agrees to its conditions. Al Arabiya
- Pakistan’s military is “cautiously optimistic” about its mediation between Iran and the United States, its spokesman said on Friday in his first interview since a high-level delegation visited Tehran this week. RTRS
- Gulf Arab states fear another US-Israeli attack on a better-prepared Iran could unleash an even more destructive war across the region, leaving them to pick up the pieces. BBG
- Goldman Sachs raised oil-price forecasts for the year-end and 2027 on elevated risks to supplies, joining other banks in hiking their outlooks after months of war in the Middle East. BBG
- The U.S. is backing a quick resumption of Russian natural-gas sales to Europe via pipelines running through Moscow’s wartime enemy -Ukraine- as part of negotiations aimed at securing an energy ceasefire ahead of the coming winter, according to U.S., European and Ukrainian officials. WSJ
- China’s central bank announced on Monday it would start a fresh round of a swap facility that would channel about $15 billion into the struggling onshore stock market, after its worst monthly sell-off in a decade dealt a heavy blow to investor confidence and threatened to add new risks to the country’s financial system. SCMP
- Chinese buying of US farm goods other than soybeans is on track for a seven-year low this year despite an agreement to purchase billions of dollars in imports, a Reuters analysis of customs data showed, underscoring long-running uncertainties about the deal. RTRS
- Wall Street is bracing for the biggest overhaul of Treasury sales guidance in years on Wednesday, with some dealers expecting cuts to 20- and 30-year bond issuance. Buyback guidance may also change. BBG
- Binance’s customers have withdrawn almost $5 billion from the world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange since it reopened after a hack that saw $6.3 billion of crypto stolen from the platform in what could be the largest financial heist in history. RTRS
- In Senate races, Democrats lead in Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Maine and Ohio, hold an edge in Alaska and are effectively tied with the GOP in Iowa, final polls by the NYT and Siena showed. BBG
- 60% of S&P 500 companies have beaten consensus EPS expectations by more than a standard deviation of analyst estimates, above the historical average of 50% but a step down from the average of 64% during the past 4 quarters. Likewise, for the aggregate S&P 500, Q3 earnings so far have come in above consensus expectations, but the size of the upside surprise has been smaller than in recent quarters. GIR
- US President Trump said he may have to become “Mr Veto” if Democrats secure a majority in Tuesday’s midterm elections: New York Post (via Fox News)
- White House has reportedly been preparing contingency plans for months to advance parts of the president’s agenda by executive action if Democrats win control of Congress and has prepared for congressional investigations of the administration. Newsquawk
- OpenAI reportedly lowered its fundraising target by USD 10bln to around USD 20bln at a USD 1.25tln valuation, down from USD 30bln at a USD 1.4tln valuation last month, as an AI stock sell-off and rival Anthropic’s anticipated public listing complicate efforts to secure investor commitments: Financial Times
- Anthropic plans Japan share sale worth as much as USD 3.5bln ahead of Nasdaq listing: filing
- OPEC+ keeps December quotas stable as focus turns to 2027 limits. BBG
- Alstom shares plunged as much as 31% after the train maker cut its FY margin guidance and warned of a significant free-cash outflow. BBG
- Fitch revised France’s credit rating outlook to negative in an unscheduled review, citing weaker economic growth, higher borrowing costs and a widening fiscal deficit. BBG/Newsquawk
- JPM’s Feroli sees 54.5 for ISM manufacturing, 55.5 for ISM services and +75k for October payrolls with the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%; Goldman also forecasts +75k vs consensus +62k. JPM/GS
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were ultimately mixed as the region partially shrugged off last Friday’s continued tech rout on Wall St, where the Nasdaq briefly dipped into correction territory following weak earnings, while participants were cautious ahead of the US midterm elections on Tuesday and as they second-guess whether US President Trump will resume strikes on Iran post-election, although there were some hopes for diplomacy after Iran held talks with Qatari mediators in Doha. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in miners, materials, resources and financials heading into a widely expected rate hike by the RBA tomorrow and with Westpac shares indecisive following its earnings results. Nikkei 225 saw choppy price action in which it swung between gains and losses, but clawed back initial losses and returned to above the 63,000 level. KOSPI rebounded from an initial dip and outperformed its regional peers, with South Korean President Lee pledging that the government will nearly double AI investment spending next year to KRW 21.3tln, while he also commented that the Future Response Fund will be a strategic investment platform, as well as a fiscal stability mechanism. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned following a recent slew of earnings, including from China’s big four banks, which all posted profit growth and with the PBoC meeting with Chinese regulators and major banks to discuss measures to support the capital market. In addition, the central bank announced changes to its 7-day reverse repo operations and shifted to overnight reverse repos as its main policy anchor, while participants also digested the latest PMI data, which was mixed as the official releases missed expectations and fell into contraction territory, but the Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI continued to show an expansion.
Top Asian News
- PBoC was reported to meet with the NFRA, CSRC and major banks on Monday to discuss measures to support the capital market, including improvements to a relending programme for share buybacks and stake increases, according to Cailian, citing industry sources.
- PBoC announced changes to its 7-day reverse repo operations on Friday, which will move to fixed-quantity, rate-tender auctions with multiple winning prices. PBoC said other tools, including temporary repos and offshore central bank repo tools, will be priced off the overnight reverse repo rate, while 7-day reverse repo operations will mainly take place around tax periods and month-end.
- The PBoC is to launch a one-year, extendable swap facility for securities, fund and insurance companies on November 3 to support capital market stability, with 31 firms applying for over CNY 100bln in funding.
- Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said it is important to appropriately gauge tax revenues and will do her best to estimate tax revenue accurately with higher transparency, adding that they are constantly improving the way to gauge tax revenues.
European bourses (Stoxx 600 +0.1%) are broadly firmer to start the week, following on from the upbeat tone in Asia and the downside in energy benchmarks on hopes for diplomacy. Sectors have a slight positive tilt; Travel & Leisure leads while Energy lags. Over in Asia, Chinese equities advanced following reports that the PBoC, NFRA and CSRC are set to meet with major banks on Monday to discuss measures to support equity markets, including optimising lending programmes for share buybacks. However, not everything was positive. Shares of Kioxia slumped over 15% after guiding Q3 operating profit of JPY 2.00tln (prev. 1.99tln Q/Q), which is seen as cautious and points to limited sequential growth. Key movers in Europe include: Alstom -28.2%, H1 sales missed estimates and cut its FY guidance; Ryanair +2.0%, Q2 sales and PAT broadly in line while announcing a review of Group-wide expenses; Fresenius +2.9%, entered an exclusive agreement with WuXi Biologics; Novartis -1.5%, downgraded to sell from hold at Deutsche Bank. US equity futures are higher to start the week, rebounding from last week’s losses that saw the NDX enter correction territory for the third time this year. It is a relatively quiet earnings docket today, outside of Apple, which is expected to report after-hours.
Top European News
- BoE is reportedly considering easing restrictions on higher-risk mortgage lending, with its Financial Policy Committee reviewing a proposal to raise the income multiple threshold to 5x from the current 4.5x, following pressure from lenders and the government, according to the FT.
- UK Chancellor Healey hinted at a delay in equalising minimum wages for young people, declining to reiterate the government’s commitment to bringing them in line with the national standard during this Parliament, amid a youth unemployment crisis.
- Trade union chiefs warned UK Chancellor Healey against pursuing “a trade-off between jobs and wages” after he signalled the Labour manifesto pledge to close the minimum wage gap for young people would be delayed until after the next election, according to FT.
- Fitch revised France’s credit rating outlook to negative in an unscheduled review, citing weaker economic growth, higher borrowing costs and a widening fiscal deficit since August 2026.
- Belgium PM De Wever is reportedly at the royal palace to tender his government’s resignation to King Philippe following the collapse of overnight budget negotiations, according to local media.
FX
- Snapshot: DXY is on the back foot this morning, with G10s broadly winning against the USD. The EUR and CHF hold towards the top of the pile, whilst the JPY is the slight laggard, but only posting losses of c. 0.3%. DXY holds towards the lower end of a 101.42 to 101.99 range, whilst EUR/USD has risen back above the 1.1200 mark, to make a session peak at 1.1237.
- Pressure in the USD can be attributed to two key factors: 1) pressure in the crude complex (Brent Jan’27 -4.1%), amidst constructive US-Iran diplomacy reports, and 2) increasing odds of a Democratic sweep; Kalshi odds show a 72% chance of a Dem Senate, and 94% of a Dem House (odds shown via the Newsquawk Midterm Panel). In theory a Dem sweep, or a more likely outcome, a gridlock, would be USD-negative. This is due to the higher likelihood of political friction, potential for shutdowns, and the knock-on effect on growth. Midterms will be the key determinant of USD action this week, but attention will also be on US ISM figures (today and Wednesday), as well as the NFP report on Friday.
- EUR is the best performer this morning, benefiting from the USD weakness, its high liquidity status and cooling Dutch TTF prices. The strength does appear to be USD-related, given that European newsflow over the weekend has been by and large negative. Starting in France, Fitch placed France’s credit rating on negative outlook and affirmed its A+ sovereign rating in an unscheduled move on Friday, reflecting concerns over the deteriorating state of the country’s public finances. Across the border, Germany was subject to nationwide violent protests, further evidence of the fragmentation within Europe.
- JPY is the mild underperformer this morning, with USD/JPY holding at the upper end of a 157.44 to 158.00 range. The pair was largely unreactive to jawboning from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, who noted that PM Takaichi said the yen’s undervaluation is problematic and that the government remains ready to take action against disorderly FX moves, but also stated that conditions have improved from before and that she couldn’t say if current levels are good or bad.
Central Banks
- ECB’s Kazimir said markets may be underestimating the extent of further monetary policy action required, with the debate increasingly focused on the magnitude rather than the need for additional measures. He urged policymakers to act before elevated inflation becomes entrenched, rather than waiting for price pressures to broaden and businesses to pass on higher costs.
Fixed Income
- A firmer start to a potentially pivotal week for fixed income. Aside from the numerous data points, a handful of policy decisions and earnings, the week is headlined by the US midterms and then the potential for US kinetic action against Iran on the weekend. While of note, the implications for price action thus far see USTs near enough flat, despite the c. 4% of WTI downside; essentially, as participants await clarity on those two points.
- This leaves USTs in a narrow 106-15+ to 106-25+ band, with upside of a tick as things stand. Today, stateside, the main update is ISM Manufacturing PMI before after-hours earnings from Apple.
- Bunds are bid, faring slightly better than USTs, but still relatively contained amid a few conflicting factors for EGBs generally. Firstly, the discussed pullback in crude has also made itself known in Dutch TTF, which is teetering on the EUR 100/MWh handle, to the benefit of EGBs. However, the space is knocked by the surprise outlook cut to France by Fitch, and as civil unrest spilled over into Germany on the weekend.
- Amidst this, Bunds are bid by 12 ticks and at the top-end of 122.22 to 122.62 parameters, while OATs actually outperform among EGBs, despite Fitch placing the rating on a negative outlook, amid concerns over the nation’s finances.
- Gilts are bid and outperforming currently, higher by about 60 ticks and just off an 86.18 peak. Upside driven by the discussed energy moves, and the weekend press focused on potential aspects of the Burnham/Healey 10yr plan and commentary that they are looking to cut welfare, pending the two reviews due this month.
- Alphabet (GOOG) launched a seven-part EUR-denominated bond offering.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks are lower, after retreating at the reopen amid hopes for diplomacy after Iranian negotiators held talks with Qatari mediators in Doha, with Iran’s FM Araghchi saying the talks are making progress, although no final conclusion has been reached. WTI Dec’26 holds within a USD 99.48-102.75/bbl range (USD 102.43-104.99/bbl range on Friday), while Brent Jan’27 is lower in a USD 108.26-112.41/bbl range (USD 111.03-114.29/bbl range on Friday).
- Benchmarks saw modest downside after sources said Iranian negotiators left the Doha talks on Sunday, but not due to difficulties in negotiations, with a draft proposal circulated for feedback and a follow-up meeting possible. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei also said the compression of Tehran’s seven-day proposal into two days is a sign of goodwill and that “America must make a decision”, which added modest pressure to the complex.
- Dutch TTF Dec’26 is lower by 3.8% at the time of writing and just about holds above the EUR 100/MWh mark, with ongoing diplomatic efforts weighing on energy sentiment today.
- Spot gold is firmer intraday amid the fall in energy, and within a USD 3,891-3,919/oz range (vs Friday’s USD 3,870-4,027/oz range), recouping some of Friday’s losses alongside a softer USD. Spot silver is back above USD 50/oz, within a USD 49.11-50.55/oz range (vs Friday’s USD 48.86-52.35/oz range).
- 3M LME copper is higher by 0.8% within a USD 14,190.30-14,298.03/t range (vs Friday’s USD 14,146.47-14,379.13/t range), as the mixed risk appetite gradually improves.
- Major OPEC+ producers reaffirmed their plans to keep December oil production quotas unchanged, as the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to disrupt a significant portion of the group’s output, while it was separately reported that potential adjustments to output policy could be considered in 2027, with the group expected to complete an assessment of member countries’ production capacities before determining quota baselines for 2027, according to Reuters, citing sources familiar with the matter.
- ADNOC’s CEO said nearly 1bln of bbls were drained from global inventories since the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted and that the world has eroded its supply buffers, and added stocks of diesels in some markets are at 35-year lows for this time of the season.
- Germany is set to miss its November 1 target for filling natural gas storage facilities, with reserves standing at 61.17% as of Friday, well below the 70% goal. The shortfall comes as colder weather sets in and despite efforts to increase fuel purchases through state-owned energy company SEFE, leaving the country with a reduced buffer ahead of peak winter demand, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data.
- China and Oman reportedly agree to deepen oil and gas cooperation and expand new energy cooperation in solar, storage and wind, Xinhua reported.
- Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude price forecast for December 2026 to USD 105/bbl (prev. 90/bbl) and its 2027 average forecast to USD 88/bbl (prev. c. 80/bbl), citing heightened Middle East supply risks and a substantial near-term risk premium. It warned markets are increasingly pricing in potential escalation following the November 3 US midterm elections.
Trade/Tariffs
- US President Trump said he spoke with Canadian PM Carney the other day and they are close to a deal, stating that they have the concept of a very good deal with Canada which will build and pay for the Keystone Pipeline.
- Canadian PM Carney said he held a productive conversation with US President Trump on bilateral trade and that both sides are exploring a framework for a mutually beneficial Canada‑US trade agreement.
- Canadian PM Carney said Canada would not hurry into a trade deal with the US unless the terms were in its best interests, while he suggested Canada would remain in President Trump’s crosshairs after the US midterm elections.
- Several Chinese automakers have travelled to Beijing to negotiate the allocation of EU hybrid vehicle export quotas with government departments, Cailian reported.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- US President Trump reiterated that the conflict with Iran is expected to “end very soon.” Trump separately commented on Sunday that he had a good talk with Israeli PM Netanyahu and discussed Iran.
- US President Trump reportedly could resume strikes on Iran a day after the midterm elections, according to MS Now, while a Chinese media report also noted that Trump plans to resume military strikes against Tehran after the US midterm elections.
- US President Trump is reportedly focused on getting nuclear concessions from Iran and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while US officials are concentrating on limiting any new action against Iran to possibly just days, according to Jerusalem Post.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said President Trump has not yet decided whether to resume military action against Iran, but would like to resolve the conflict diplomatically.
- US Central Command posted that the Iranian Foreign Minister’s recent claim that Iran has not attacked civilians in neighbouring countries is false, while CENTCOM added that Iran has not only intentionally attacked civilian infrastructure, neighbourhoods, and other facilities in neighbouring Gulf countries, but it has also deliberately attacked civilian mariners at sea.
- An Israeli source said Israeli PM Netanyahu urged US President Trump to strike Iran immediately after Tuesday’s midterm elections, while Trump is said to favour letting negotiations continue, according to Axios.
- Israel’s Mossad and IDF appear to be divided on targets for new Iran operations, with Mossad chief Gof drafting plans to advance Israeli PM Netanyahu’s push for Iranian regime change, while the IDF is focused primarily on eliminating concrete threats. Furthermore, the potential targets cited include Pickaxe Mountain, new facilities linked to weapons R&D, newly built or repaired ballistic missile production sites and strategic weapons projects, according to sources cited by Jerusalem Post.
- Gulf states warned that a renewed US–Israel strike on Iran could trigger a larger regional war.
- Iranian negotiators held talks with Qatari mediators in Doha on Saturday to discuss potential pathways to ending the Gulf conflict, as diplomats seek to prevent a renewed outbreak of hostilities after the midterm elections, according to Reuters, citing a source briefed on the negotiations. It was separately reported by Axios that the Iranian delegation left Doha and mediators are working on addressing the remaining concerns of both parties. Furthermore, Reuters reported that Iranian negotiators departed talks with Qatari mediators on Sunday, although their departure was not due to difficulties in negotiations. A draft proposal is being circulated, with a follow-up meeting possible as efforts continue to reach an agreement to end the conflict.
- Iran has reportedly conveyed seven conditions to Qatar for reaching an agreement with Washington, including lifting the US blockade of Iranian ports, according to Kyodo citing a senior Iranian official. Tehran is said to be willing to adopt a flexible position on nuclear issues if an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is reached, although significant differences remain as the US seeks simultaneous nuclear concessions.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said Tehran’s willingness to shorten its seven-day proposal to two days demonstrates goodwill, adding that negotiations remain ongoing despite increasing complexity. He said Iran has conveyed its position to Washington and the US must now make a decision, while insisting the Strait of Hormuz cannot reopen before US sanctions are lifted. On the NPT, he said that withdrawal from the NPT remains under discussion, but Iran remains committed to the treaty, and denied that exporting 60%-enriched uranium to a third country was discussed in Doha.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said talks mediated by Qatar are ongoing and making progress, although no final conclusion has been reached. Araghchi also commented that Tehran has studied US VP Vance’s message and discussed it at a high level, while he added the US effort to open a broader dialogue is a positive step, but there are no current plans for a meeting with US officials and that Tehran will decide whether talks are direct or indirect after the US accepts Iran’s conditions. Furthermore, he stated that the current proposal on the table is the same as Iran’s seven-day plan and that mediators presented proposals on the nuclear issue, which Tehran is examining.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said that Tehran is prepared on both defence and diplomatic fronts, while he added that which route it pursues depends on whether the US acts rationally. Furthermore, it was stated that Iran urged the US to remain rational and prioritise diplomacy over other options.
- Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered senior military commanders to prepare for a renewed confrontation with the US and Israel, as well as expand Tehran’s retaliation options, despite his top diplomat signalling progress in diplomatic talks, while he told IRGC chiefs that “every level and type of threat must be met with an immediate, effective response, without geographical limitations”.
- IRGC targeted a violating vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Sabereen News.
- UKMTO received a report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz, where a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile, while it also received a report of an incident 72 nautical miles east of Ras Al Khafji, Saudi Arabia, in which a tanker was struck by two unknown projectiles, although the crew was accounted for and there were no reported environmental impacts.
- Houthi armed forces military source warned international investors that Saudi Aramco facilities lie fully within the range of the Houthi forces and that any investment in them constitutes a high-risk gamble fraught with losses.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- US is pushing for a quick resumption of Russian natural-gas sales to Europe via pipelines running through Ukraine in an effort to unlock an energy ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv, but faces resistance in European capitals, according to WSJ. In response to the report, Russia’s Kremlin said the realities on the ground currently rule out plans to resume Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said if Washington wants Kyiv to refrain from striking Russian refineries, Moscow must stop attacking Ukraine’s energy system, while he said Ukraine has proposed to the US the purchase of Patriot missiles and is willing to raise the necessary funding.
- US First Lady Melania Trump posted that the Oleshky ceasefire concluded on November 1 and that the mission was a success, delivering critical aid to the region and enabling the evacuation of nearly 800 people.
Crypto
- Bitcoin trades at the lower end of its USD 77.8k-78.76k range, but is down around 5% from Thursday’s high before Binance disclosed a hack that would see USD 6.3bln of assets siphoned off.
- Binance announced the resumption of withdrawals in phases on Sunday, two days after hackers attempted to steal more than USD 6bln from the crypto exchange in the largest cyber theft on record.
US Event Calendar
- 09:45: Oct F S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 56.0, prior 56.0
- 10:00: Oct ISM Manufacturing, est. 54.5, prior 54.5
- 10:00: Oct ISM Prices Paid, est. 77.2, prior 77.9
- 10:00: Oct ISM New Orders, est. 55.0, prior 55.3
- 10:00: Oct ISM Employment, est. 52.0, prior 52.7
- 10:00: Sep Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.9%
- 11:30: US to sell $95 billion of 13-week bills and $82 billion of 26-week bills
- 14:00: Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
Central Bank Speakers
- 11:15: Fed’s Goolsbee moderates discussion
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Welcome to the first business day of November. It feels like only yesterday we were sweltering through the hottest days on record. Now the bobble hat is back for the next 4-5 months and, rather more importantly and depressingly, my golf ball has stopped running merrily down the fairways. The week ahead is a big one in the US and with it for global markets, with tomorrow’s midterm elections and Friday’s October jobs report the obvious highlights, alongside the ISM surveys and Wednesday’s Treasury quarterly refunding announcement. Elsewhere, central-bank decisions are due in Australia tomorrow, Sweden on Wednesday, and the UK and Norway on Thursday, while China’s private PMIs, German activity data and Japanese wages will also be in focus. Earnings remain busy too, with Apple and Palantir today, AMD tomorrow, and ARM and a broader slate later in the week.
Even all those events above may be trumped by the next move in tech after a tumultuous end to last week. Over the weekend our US equity strategists upgraded US tech from neutral to positive, reversing a well-publicised move they made three weeks ago. They see the sector having underperformed the market by 16% over those three weeks, with it being down -11% against the rest of the index being up +6%. It’s now at the bottom of a channel versus the index, levels its bounced aggressively off 5 times in the last 2.5 years. See their piece here.
The recent turmoil in tech was a fitting end to a tough October which Peter Sidorov has just reviewed in our monthly performance review. It was a month that investors grappled with mounting doubts around the AI trade, French sovereign stress, and higher energy prices. Brent crude (+13.6%) extended its rise amid concerns over renewed US-Iran escalation, while European natural gas rose above €100/MWh for the first time since 2022. Treasury yields reached post-2002 highs early in the month but ended up posting their best monthly return of 2026 (+2.3%), as sovereign bonds rebounded amid deteriorating tech sentiment and dovish-leaning decisions from the Fed, ECB and BoJ. Equities were mixed, with the STOXX 600 (+2.0%) and the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+5.0%) gaining, but the Nasdaq (-5.3%) suffering its worst month since March 2025 as concerns around AI capex intensified. European credit and European banks also struggled as OAT-Bund spreads neared their 2011 peak. See the full review of a complicated month here.
Looking at more depth at the week ahead, tomorrow’s midterms will determine control of Congress for the final two years of President Trump’s term. Polling suggests Democrats are favoured to gain the three seats needed for a House majority, while the Senate remains a much closer contest and the outcome in either chamber could take several days to become clear if the margins are tight. Polymarket currently put the probability of the Democrats taking the Senate at 72.0%. Well renowned pollster Nate Silver currently suggests a 75% probability.
From a near-term fiscal perspective, the lame-duck session after the election could prove at least as consequential as the composition of the new Congress according to our economists, with government funding expiring on December 11 and Republicans likely to seek a reconciliation bill that could include additional defence spending and potentially address the debt limit. Markets will also look to see what happens to the Iranian conflict in the days after midterms. The concern is clearly that energy prices become less of a pressing political issue once the vote is out the way, allowing for more aggressive action in and around Iran. For this morning though, Brent is -3.47% lower after Axios reported that Trump favours giving diplomacy longer to work, rather than a policy of imminent strikes. This was apparently relayed in a call to Israeli PM Netanyahu who was said to be concerned by this news. S&P 500 (+0.49%) and NASDAQ 100 (+1.01%) futures have snapped back up this morning.
Friday’s October employment report is the main US data release. Our economists expect headline payrolls to rise by +55k, up from +29k in September, with private payrolls also increasing by +55k after +46k. They expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%, hours worked to stay at 34.4 and average hourly earnings growth to rebound to +0.3% MoM from +0.1%. On those forecasts, their payroll-based proxy for nominal compensation growth would ease a tenth to 4.1% YoY, which would still be consistent with solid consumer spending growth.
There are several labour-market indicators ahead of Friday. Tomorrow’s September JOLTS report will provide the latest read on hiring, quits and layoffs, which have been relatively stable over the past year. On Wednesday, our economists expect ADP private employment growth of +75k, down from +90k previously. Given the correlation between ADP and nonfarm payroll growth, that release could have an important bearing on expectations heading into Friday.
The business surveys will be another focus. Our economists expect today’s October manufacturing ISM to rise to 54.8 from 54.5, followed by an increase in the services ISM to 55.1 from 54.9 on Wednesday. Watch out for the prices paid component as well. These surveys should also offer a useful comparison with the much weaker picture from consumers: our economists expect Friday’s preliminary University of Michigan sentiment index to fall to 45.7 from 48.0 in October. Thursday also brings Q3 nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs, while the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey is due today.
The data will be viewed against the backdrop of last week’s FOMC meeting, where the Fed left rates unchanged but Chair Warsh reiterated that further tightening is likely to be needed. Barring meaningful downside surprises this week, our economists think the labour-market data should reinforce expectations of another rate hike at the December 9 meeting. There is also plenty of Fedspeak this week, with New York Fed President Williams’ moderated discussion on Friday among the more notable appearances. On the fiscal side, Wednesday’s Treasury quarterly refunding announcement will be another important event for rates markets. See our strategists’ preview here.
Moving to Europe, the main events are central-bank decisions. The Riksbank announces on Wednesday, followed by the BoE and Norges Bank on Thursday. Market probabilities for a hike are 70.4%, 95.6% and 4.4% respectively. See our UK economists’ preview of the BoE’s likely first hike since 2023 here. Germany has a run of September activity data, beginning with retail sales today, followed by factory orders on Thursday and industrial production on Friday. Inflation releases include Switzerland tomorrow, the Eurozone on Wednesday and Sweden on Thursday.
In Asia, China’s October private services PMI on Wednesday follows manufacturing earlier today and the official ones over the weekend (more below). Japan’s September labour cash earnings are out on Thursday, while the BoJ publishes the minutes from its September meeting on Wednesday. In Australia, the RBA decision is tomorrow and our economists expect rates to remain on hold even though the market is pricing an 82% probability of a hike. See why they disagree with consensus here.
Finally, earnings remain busy. Apple and Palantir report today, followed by AMD and Arista Networks tomorrow, and ARM, Qualcomm, McDonald’s, Novo Nordisk and Uber on Wednesday. Thursday’s slate includes Toyota, Sony, Deutsche Telekom, Rheinmetall and Nintendo, while Moderna and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are among those reporting on Friday.
Over the weekend, China’s official PMIs delivered a noticeably weaker-than-expected start to Q4. The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in October from 50.1 in September, below the 50.0 consensus. The details were also soft, with the production index falling to 49.8 from 51.7 and new orders to 49.4 from 50.5, although high-tech manufacturing remained relatively resilient at 51.3. Meanwhile, the official non-manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.7 from 50.2, taking it below 50 as well, which was where the consensus was. Construction was particularly weak while services were flat at 50.0. So after September’s better numbers, the official October surveys suggest momentum weakened again at the start of Q4, with softer domestic and external demand still weighing on the broader economy. In slightly better news this morning’s private sector manufacturing PMI matched expectations at 52.0 in October, only slightly below September’s 52.1.
Asian equity markets are snapping back this morning with the KOSPI (+2.77%) leading gains buoyed by index heavyweights SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. Elsewhere, Chinese stocks are also trading decently higher with the CSI 300 (+0.89%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.97%) outperforming the Hang Seng (+0.72%). Meanwhile, the Nikkei (-0.01%) is back to flat with Kioxia down over -15% after a Q3 forecast miss. Kioxia was the largest company in the index in late June trading at over 36,000. It’s now back to just over 11,000 showing the recent dispersion in the AI trade. Elsewhere the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.57%) is lower as the RBA starts its two-day policy gathering.
Separately, South Korea’s manufacturing sector expanded at its slowest rate in eight months during October as output and demand weakened. The S&P Global PMI fell to 51.3 in October from 53.9 in September, marking the lowest reading since February.
Recapping last week now and the biggest market moves came with the volatility in the AI trade, with a strong recovery early in the week giving way to a renewed sell-off that sharpened on Friday. This was exemplified by the swing in the Philly semiconductor index, which had been more than +8% higher on the week as of Wednesday, but ended up posting a fourth consecutive weekly decline (-0.84%) following a -7.20% slump on Friday. The Nasdaq saw an even larger weekly decline (-2.00%) after posting its worst day since June on Friday (-2.86%). And the Mag-7 fell -2.24% (-1.72% Friday), with Alphabet (-12.61%) and Amazon (-3.08%) losing ground after underwhelming results. The S&P 500 also ended the week lower (-0.57%, -1.82% Friday), though the equal-weighted version of the index still gained on the week (+0.80%, -0.79% Friday) amid a rotation trade.
Outside the US, equities mostly held on to their weekly gains despite Friday’s losses. In Europe, the rebound of the Stoxx 600 (+1.73%, -0.36% Friday) was led by the DAX (+2.53%, -0.85% Friday) and the CAC (+2.40%, -0.01% Friday). In Asia, both the Kospi (+3.25%, -3.48% Friday) and Nikkei (+0.95%, -2.12% Friday) gained, though Chinese equities struggled with the CSI 300 down -2.92% (-1.39% Friday). European credit also outperformed, with IG (-4bps) and HY (-12bps) credit spreads tightening after the earlier sell-off.
Sovereign bonds gained amid the risk-off tone and on-hold decisions by the Fed, ECB and BoJ. Treasuries outperformed, with both 10yr (-6.6bps, -0.9bps Friday) and 2yr (-9.4bps, -1.0bps Friday) yields falling to their lowest levels in seven weeks, at 4.93% and 4.59% respectively. In Europe, 10yr bunds (-2.2bps, -3.2bps Friday) and gilts (-7.2bps, -1.0bps Friday) advanced, with OATs (-4.7bps, +1.6bps Friday) also gaining despite a renewed widening in OAT-Bund spread on Friday.
Across other asset classes, oil prices saw a modest increase, with Brent crude (+0.79%, +2.40% Friday) ending the week at $117.64/bbl, within touching distance of its 2026 high, amid persisting concerns over possible US-Iran re-escalation after this week’s midterm elections. Meanwhile, gold (-3.04% on the week) and silver (-8.89%) fell to their lowest levels since last autumn. Finally, in the FX space, the Brazilian real (-8.44%) and the Israeli shekel (-1.12%) were two of the worst performing currencies last week after their elections.
Monday November 2
- Data: US October ISM index, September construction spending, China October RatingDog manufacturing PMI, Germany September retail sales, Italy October new car registrations, budget balance, manufacturing PMI, Canada October manufacturing PMI
- Central banks: Fed’s Senior loan officer opinion survey, Fed’s Goolsbee speaks, ECB’s Vujcic, Makhlouf, Escriva, Moulin and Radev speak
- Earnings: Apple, Palantir, Vertex, Marriott, Estee Lauder, Ryanair
- Auctions: US Treasury quarterly borrowing estimates
Tuesday November 3
- Data: US September JOLTS report, factory orders, October total vehicle sales, Japan October monetary base, France September budget balance, New Zealand Q3 labour force survey, Switzerland October CPI
- Central banks: RBA decision, ECB’s Radev, Moulin, Kocher, Dolenc, Nagel, Sleijpen and Escriva speak, BoC’s Macklem and Rogers speak
- Earnings: AMD, Amgen, Arista Networks, Shopify, Pfizer, Eaton, Marathon Petroleum, Intesa Sanpaolo, Booking, Energy Transfer, Ferrari, Apollo, Bayer, Keurig Dr Pepper, Block
- Other: UK Chancellor Healey and Treasury ministerial team answer oral questions in the House of Commons
Wednesday November 4
- Data: US October ISM services, ADP report, September trade balance, China October RatingDog services PMI, Italy October services PMI, UK October official reserves changes, Eurozone October CPI, Canada September international merchandise trade, October services PMI
- Central banks: Riksbank decision, ECB’s Lane and Moulin speak, BoJ minutes of the September meeting
- Earnings: ARM, QUALCOMM, McDonald’s, Novo Nordisk, Uber, CVS Health, McKesson, Datadog, Emerson Electric, AppLovin, MercadoLibre, Coherent, BMW, Expedia, Leonardo, Kraft Heinz, Fair Isaac, Vonovia
- Auctions: US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement
Thursday November 5
- Data: US Q3 nonfarm productivity, unit labor costs, initial jobless claims, UK October new car registrations, construction PMI, Japan September labor cash earnings, Germany September factory orders, October construction PMI, France September industrial production, Italy September retail sales, Eurozone September PPI, Sweden October CPI
- Central banks: BoE decision, Norges bank decision, Fed’s Hammack and Barkin speak, ECB’s Lagarde, Dolenc, Cipollone, Schnabel, Moulin, Schnabel, Zigman and Nagel speak
- Earnings: Toyota Motor, Sony, Deutsche Telekom, Parker-Hannifin, Cloudflare, Airbnb, National Grid, Lumentum, DHL, Cummins, Nintendo, Rheinmetall, Atlassian, AP Moller – Maersk, ArcelorMittal, Commerzbank, Legrand, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Kimberly-Clark, Verisk Analytics, Unity Software
Friday November 6
- Data: US October jobs report, November University of Michigan survey, September consumer credit, Germany September industrial production, France September current account balance, trade balance, Q3 wages, Eurozone September retail sales, Canada October labour force survey
- Central banks: Fed’s Logan, Williams, Musalem and Bowman speak, ECB’s Lane speaks, BoE’s Pill speaks
- Earnings: Moderna, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Constellation Software
2 b European opening report
Trump is reportedly favouring diplomacy with Iran; DXY is under mild pressure awaiting midterms – Newsquawk US Market Open
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 06:14 AM
- US President Trump reportedly favours giving diplomacy with Iran more time before considering renewed military strikes, Axios reported.
- Iran reportedly conveyed seven conditions to Qatar for reaching an agreement with Washington, including lifting the US blockade of Iranian ports, Kyodo reported.
- US equity futures rebound with Apple on the docket after-hours.
- DXY is softer; EUR outperforms despite Fitch’s negative outlook on France.
- Fixed income benchmarks gain amid lower energy prices (Brent -4.1%).
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q4). Speakers include Fed’s Goolsbee and US President Trump. Earnings from Apple.
SNAPSHOT
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (Stoxx 600 +0.1%) are broadly firmer to start the week, following on from the upbeat tone in Asia and the downside in energy benchmarks on hopes for diplomacy. Sectors have a slight positive tilt; Travel & Leisure leads while Energy lags.
- Over in Asia, Chinese equities advanced following reports that the PBoC, NFRA and CSRC are set to meet with major banks on Monday to discuss measures to support equity markets, including optimising lending programmes for share buybacks. However, not everything was positive. Shares of Kioxia slumped over 15% after guiding Q3 operating profit of JPY 2.00tln (prev. 1.99tln Q/Q), which is seen as cautious and points to limited sequential growth.
- Key movers in Europe include: Alstom -28.2%, H1 sales missed estimates and cut its FY guidance; Ryanair +2.0%, Q2 sales and PAT broadly in line while announcing a review of Group-wide expenses; Fresenius +2.9%, entered an exclusive agreement with WuXi Biologics; Novartis -1.5%, downgraded to sell from hold at Deutsche Bank.
- US equity futures are higher to start the week, rebounding from last week’s losses that saw the NDX enter correction territory for the third time this year. It is a relatively quiet earnings docket today, outside of Apple, which is expected to report after-hours.
- Click for the session’s European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
FX
- Snapshot: DXY is on the back foot this morning, with G10s broadly winning against the USD. The EUR and CHF hold towards the top of the pile, whilst the JPY is the slight laggard, but only posting losses of c. 0.3%. DXY holds towards the lower end of a 101.42 to 101.99 range, whilst EUR/USD has risen back above the 1.1200 mark, to make a session peak at 1.1237.
- Pressure in the USD can be attributed to two key factors: 1) pressure in the crude complex (Brent Jan’27 -4.1%), amidst constructive US-Iran diplomacy reports, and 2) increasing odds of a Democratic sweep; Kalshi odds show a 72% chance of a Dem Senate, and 94% of a Dem House (odds shown via the Newsquawk Midterm Panel). In theory a Dem sweep, or a more likely outcome, a gridlock, would be USD-negative. This is due to the higher likelihood of political friction, potential for shutdowns, and the knock-on effect on growth. Midterms will be the key determinant of USD action this week, but attention will also be on US ISM figures (today and Wednesday), as well as the NFP report on Friday.
- EUR is the best performer this morning, benefiting from the USD weakness, its high liquidity status and cooling Dutch TTF prices. The strength does appear to be USD-related, given that European newsflow over the weekend has been by and large negative. Starting in France, Fitch placed France’s credit rating on negative outlook and affirmed its A+ sovereign rating in an unscheduled move on Friday, reflecting concerns over the deteriorating state of the country’s public finances. Across the border, Germany was subject to nationwide violent protests, further evidence of the fragmentation within Europe.
- JPY is the mild underperformer this morning, with USD/JPY holding at the upper end of a 157.44 to 158.00 range. The pair was largely unreactive to jawboning from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, who noted that PM Takaichi said the yen’s undervaluation is problematic and that the government remains ready to take action against disorderly FX moves, but also stated that conditions have improved from before and that she couldn’t say if current levels are good or bad.
FIXED INCOME
- A firmer start to a potentially pivotal week for fixed income. Aside from the numerous data points, a handful of policy decisions and earnings, the week is headlined by the US midterms and then the potential for US kinetic action against Iran on the weekend. While of note, the implications for price action thus far see USTs near enough flat, despite the c. 4% of WTI downside; essentially, as participants await clarity on those two points.
- This leaves USTs in a narrow 106-15+ to 106-25+ band, with upside of a tick as things stand. Today, stateside, the main update is ISM Manufacturing PMI before after-hours earnings from Apple.
- Bunds are bid, faring slightly better than USTs, but still relatively contained amid a few conflicting factors for EGBs generally. Firstly, the discussed pullback in crude has also made itself known in Dutch TTF, which is teetering on the EUR 100/MWh handle, to the benefit of EGBs. However, the space is knocked by the surprise outlook cut to France by Fitch, and as civil unrest spilled over into Germany on the weekend.
- Amidst this, Bunds are bid by 12 ticks and at the top-end of 122.22 to 122.62 parameters, while OATs actually outperform among EGBs, despite Fitch placing the rating on a negative outlook, amid concerns over the nation’s finances.
- Gilts are bid and outperforming currently, higher by about 60 ticks and just off an 86.18 peak. Upside driven by the discussed energy moves, and the weekend press focused on potential aspects of the Burnham/Healey 10yr plan and commentary that they are looking to cut welfare, pending the two reviews due this month.
- Alphabet (GOOG) launched a seven-part EUR-denominated bond offering.
COMMODITIES
- Crude benchmarks are lower, after retreating at the reopen amid hopes for diplomacy after Iranian negotiators held talks with Qatari mediators in Doha, with Iran’s FM Araghchi saying the talks are making progress, although no final conclusion has been reached. WTI Dec’26 holds within a USD 99.48-102.75/bbl range (USD 102.43-104.99/bbl range on Friday), while Brent Jan’27 is lower in a USD 108.26-112.41/bbl range (USD 111.03-114.29/bbl range on Friday).
- Benchmarks saw modest downside after sources said Iranian negotiators left the Doha talks on Sunday, but not due to difficulties in negotiations, with a draft proposal circulated for feedback and a follow-up meeting possible. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei also said the compression of Tehran’s seven-day proposal into two days is a sign of goodwill and that “America must make a decision”, which added modest pressure to the complex.
- Dutch TTF Dec’26 is lower by 3.8% at the time of writing and just about holds above the EUR 100/MWh mark, with ongoing diplomatic efforts weighing on energy sentiment today.
- Spot gold is firmer intraday amid the fall in energy, and within a USD 3,891-3,919/oz range (vs Friday’s USD 3,870-4,027/oz range), recouping some of Friday’s losses alongside a softer USD. Spot silver is back above USD 50/oz, within a USD 49.11-50.55/oz range (vs Friday’s USD 48.86-52.35/oz range).
- 3M LME copper is higher by 0.8% within a USD 14,190.30-14,298.03/t range (vs Friday’s USD 14,146.47-14,379.13/t range), as the mixed risk appetite gradually improves.
- Major OPEC+ producers reaffirmed their plans to keep December oil production quotas unchanged, as the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to disrupt a significant portion of the group’s output, while it was separately reported that potential adjustments to output policy could be considered in 2027, with the group expected to complete an assessment of member countries’ production capacities before determining quota baselines for 2027, according to Reuters, citing sources familiar with the matter.
- ADNOC’s CEO said nearly 1bln of bbls were drained from global inventories since the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted and that the world has eroded its supply buffers, and added stocks of diesels in some markets are at 35-year lows for this time of the season.
- Germany is set to miss its November 1 target for filling natural gas storage facilities, with reserves standing at 61.17% as of Friday, well below the 70% goal. The shortfall comes as colder weather sets in and despite efforts to increase fuel purchases through state-owned energy company SEFE, leaving the country with a reduced buffer ahead of peak winter demand, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data.
- China and Oman reportedly agree to deepen oil and gas cooperation and expand new energy cooperation in solar, storage and wind, Xinhua reported.
- Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude price forecast for December 2026 to USD 105/bbl (prev. 90/bbl) and its 2027 average forecast to USD 88/bbl (prev. c. 80/bbl), citing heightened Middle East supply risks and a substantial near-term risk premium. It warned markets are increasingly pricing in potential escalation following the November 3 US midterm elections.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- US President Trump said he spoke with Canadian PM Carney the other day and they are close to a deal, stating that they have the concept of a very good deal with Canada which will build and pay for the Keystone Pipeline.
- Canadian PM Carney said he held a productive conversation with US President Trump on bilateral trade and that both sides are exploring a framework for a mutually beneficial Canada‑US trade agreement.
- Canadian PM Carney said Canada would not hurry into a trade deal with the US unless the terms were in its best interests, while he suggested Canada would remain in President Trump’s crosshairs after the US midterm elections.
- Several Chinese automakers have travelled to Beijing to negotiate the allocation of EU hybrid vehicle export quotas with government departments, Cailian reported.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- BoE is reportedly considering easing restrictions on higher-risk mortgage lending, with its Financial Policy Committee reviewing a proposal to raise the income multiple threshold to 5x from the current 4.5x, following pressure from lenders and the government, according to the FT.
- UK Chancellor Healey hinted at a delay in equalising minimum wages for young people, declining to reiterate the government’s commitment to bringing them in line with the national standard during this Parliament, amid a youth unemployment crisis.
- Trade union chiefs warned UK Chancellor Healey against pursuing “a trade-off between jobs and wages” after he signalled the Labour manifesto pledge to close the minimum wage gap for young people would be delayed until after the next election, according to FT.
- Fitch revised France’s credit rating outlook to negative in an unscheduled review, citing weaker economic growth, higher borrowing costs and a widening fiscal deficit since August 2026.
- Belgium PM De Wever is reportedly at the royal palace to tender his government’s resignation to King Philippe following the collapse of overnight budget negotiations, according to local media.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 52.8 vs. Exp. 52.8 (Prev. 51.9).
- European S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 52.7 vs. Exp. 52.4 (Prev. 52.9).
- German S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 54.2 vs. Exp. 54.2 (Prev. 53.9).
- French S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 49.5 vs. Exp. 49.3 (Prev. 50.6).
- Italian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.4 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 50.4).
- Spanish S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 52.2 vs. Exp. 50.8 (Prev. 51.0).
- German Retail Sales (Sep MM) -2.0% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 1.3%).
- German Retail Sales (Sep YY) -2.3% (Prev. -0.4%).
CENTRAL BANKS
- ECB’s Kazimir said markets may be underestimating the extent of further monetary policy action required, with the debate increasingly focused on the magnitude rather than the need for additional measures. He urged policymakers to act before elevated inflation becomes entrenched, rather than waiting for price pressures to broaden and businesses to pass on higher costs.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Trump said he may have to become “Mr Veto” if Democrats secure a majority in Tuesday’s midterm elections, according to a clip of his New York Post interview aired on Fox News.
- White House has reportedly been preparing contingency plans for months to advance parts of the president’s agenda by executive action if Democrats win control of Congress and has prepared for congressional investigations of the administration.
- OpenAI reportedly lowered its fundraising target by USD 10bln to around USD 20bln at a USD 1.25tln valuation, down from USD 30bln at a USD 1.4tln valuation last month, as an AI stock sell-off and rival Anthropic’s anticipated public listing complicate efforts to secure investor commitments, according to the Financial Times.
- Anthropic plans Japan share sale worth as much as USD 3.5bln ahead of Nasdaq listing, according to a filing.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US President Trump reiterated that the conflict with Iran is expected to “end very soon.” Trump separately commented on Sunday that he had a good talk with Israeli PM Netanyahu and discussed Iran.
- US President Trump reportedly could resume strikes on Iran a day after the midterm elections, according to MS Now, while a Chinese media report also noted that Trump plans to resume military strikes against Tehran after the US midterm elections.
- US President Trump is reportedly focused on getting nuclear concessions from Iran and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while US officials are concentrating on limiting any new action against Iran to possibly just days, according to Jerusalem Post.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said President Trump has not yet decided whether to resume military action against Iran, but would like to resolve the conflict diplomatically.
- US Central Command posted that the Iranian Foreign Minister’s recent claim that Iran has not attacked civilians in neighbouring countries is false, while CENTCOM added that Iran has not only intentionally attacked civilian infrastructure, neighbourhoods, and other facilities in neighbouring Gulf countries, but it has also deliberately attacked civilian mariners at sea.
- An Israeli source said Israeli PM Netanyahu urged US President Trump to strike Iran immediately after Tuesday’s midterm elections, while Trump is said to favour letting negotiations continue, according to Axios.
- Israel’s Mossad and IDF appear to be divided on targets for new Iran operations, with Mossad chief Gof drafting plans to advance Israeli PM Netanyahu’s push for Iranian regime change, while the IDF is focused primarily on eliminating concrete threats. Furthermore, the potential targets cited include Pickaxe Mountain, new facilities linked to weapons R&D, newly built or repaired ballistic missile production sites and strategic weapons projects, according to sources cited by Jerusalem Post.
- Gulf states warned that a renewed US–Israel strike on Iran could trigger a larger regional war.
- Iranian negotiators held talks with Qatari mediators in Doha on Saturday to discuss potential pathways to ending the Gulf conflict, as diplomats seek to prevent a renewed outbreak of hostilities after the midterm elections, according to Reuters, citing a source briefed on the negotiations. It was separately reported by Axios that the Iranian delegation left Doha and mediators are working on addressing the remaining concerns of both parties. Furthermore, Reuters reported that Iranian negotiators departed talks with Qatari mediators on Sunday, although their departure was not due to difficulties in negotiations. A draft proposal is being circulated, with a follow-up meeting possible as efforts continue to reach an agreement to end the conflict.
- Iran has reportedly conveyed seven conditions to Qatar for reaching an agreement with Washington, including lifting the US blockade of Iranian ports, according to Kyodo citing a senior Iranian official. Tehran is said to be willing to adopt a flexible position on nuclear issues if an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is reached, although significant differences remain as the US seeks simultaneous nuclear concessions.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said Tehran’s willingness to shorten its seven-day proposal to two days demonstrates goodwill, adding that negotiations remain ongoing despite increasing complexity. He said Iran has conveyed its position to Washington and the US must now make a decision, while insisting the Strait of Hormuz cannot reopen before US sanctions are lifted. On the NPT, he said that withdrawal from the NPT remains under discussion, but Iran remains committed to the treaty, and denied that exporting 60%-enriched uranium to a third country was discussed in Doha.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said talks mediated by Qatar are ongoing and making progress, although no final conclusion has been reached. Araghchi also commented that Tehran has studied US VP Vance’s message and discussed it at a high level, while he added the US effort to open a broader dialogue is a positive step, but there are no current plans for a meeting with US officials and that Tehran will decide whether talks are direct or indirect after the US accepts Iran’s conditions. Furthermore, he stated that the current proposal on the table is the same as Iran’s seven-day plan and that mediators presented proposals on the nuclear issue, which Tehran is examining.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said that Tehran is prepared on both defence and diplomatic fronts, while he added that which route it pursues depends on whether the US acts rationally. Furthermore, it was stated that Iran urged the US to remain rational and prioritise diplomacy over other options.
- Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered senior military commanders to prepare for a renewed confrontation with the US and Israel, as well as expand Tehran’s retaliation options, despite his top diplomat signalling progress in diplomatic talks, while he told IRGC chiefs that “every level and type of threat must be met with an immediate, effective response, without geographical limitations”.
- IRGC targeted a violating vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Sabereen News.
- UKMTO received a report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz, where a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile, while it also received a report of an incident 72 nautical miles east of Ras Al Khafji, Saudi Arabia, in which a tanker was struck by two unknown projectiles, although the crew was accounted for and there were no reported environmental impacts.
- Houthi armed forces military source warned international investors that Saudi Aramco facilities lie fully within the range of the Houthi forces and that any investment in them constitutes a high-risk gamble fraught with losses.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- US is pushing for a quick resumption of Russian natural-gas sales to Europe via pipelines running through Ukraine in an effort to unlock an energy ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv, but faces resistance in European capitals, according to WSJ. In response to the report, Russia’s Kremlin said the realities on the ground currently rule out plans to resume Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said if Washington wants Kyiv to refrain from striking Russian refineries, Moscow must stop attacking Ukraine’s energy system, while he said Ukraine has proposed to the US the purchase of Patriot missiles and is willing to raise the necessary funding.
- US First Lady Melania Trump posted that the Oleshky ceasefire concluded on November 1 and that the mission was a success, delivering critical aid to the region and enabling the evacuation of nearly 800 people.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin trades at the lower end of its USD 77.8k-78.76k range, but is down around 5% from Thursday’s high before Binance disclosed a hack that would see USD 6.3bln of assets siphoned off.
- Binance announced the resumption of withdrawals in phases on Sunday, two days after hackers attempted to steal more than USD 6bln from the crypto exchange in the largest cyber theft on record.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were ultimately mixed as the region partially shrugged off last Friday’s continued tech rout on Wall St, where the Nasdaq briefly dipped into correction territory following weak earnings, while participants were cautious ahead of the US midterm elections on Tuesday and as they second-guess whether US President Trump will resume strikes on Iran post-election, although there were some hopes for diplomacy after Iran held talks with Qatari mediators in Doha.
- ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in miners, materials, resources and financials heading into a widely expected rate hike by the RBA tomorrow and with Westpac shares indecisive following its earnings results.
- Nikkei 225 saw choppy price action in which it swung between gains and losses, but clawed back initial losses and returned to above the 63,000 level.
- KOSPI rebounded from an initial dip and outperformed its regional peers, with South Korean President Lee pledging that the government will nearly double AI investment spending next year to KRW 21.3tln, while he also commented that the Future Response Fund will be a strategic investment platform, as well as a fiscal stability mechanism.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned following a recent slew of earnings, including from China’s big four banks, which all posted profit growth and with the PBoC meeting with Chinese regulators and major banks to discuss measures to support the capital market. In addition, the central bank announced changes to its 7-day reverse repo operations and shifted to overnight reverse repos as its main policy anchor, while participants also digested the latest PMI data, which was mixed as the official releases missed expectations and fell into contraction territory, but the Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI continued to show an expansion.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC was reported to meet with the NFRA, CSRC and major banks on Monday to discuss measures to support the capital market, including improvements to a relending programme for share buybacks and stake increases, according to Cailian, citing industry sources.
- PBoC announced changes to its 7-day reverse repo operations on Friday, which will move to fixed-quantity, rate-tender auctions with multiple winning prices. PBoC said other tools, including temporary repos and offshore central bank repo tools, will be priced off the overnight reverse repo rate, while 7-day reverse repo operations will mainly take place around tax periods and month-end.
- The PBoC is to launch a one-year, extendable swap facility for securities, fund and insurance companies on November 3 to support capital market stability, with 31 firms applying for over CNY 100bln in funding.
- Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said it is important to appropriately gauge tax revenues and will do her best to estimate tax revenue accurately with higher transparency, adding that they are constantly improving the way to gauge tax revenues.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.3 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 50.1).
- Chinese NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.7 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.2).
- Chinese NBS General PMI (Oct) 49.7 (Prev. 50.7).
- Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 52.0 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 52.1).
- South Korean Trade Balance (Oct) 42.50B vs. Exp. 37.24B (Prev. 49.97B).
- South Korean Exports (Oct YY) 93.7% vs. Exp. 93.2% (Prev. 83.7%).
- South Korean Imports (Oct YY) 36% vs. Exp. 39.9% (Prev. 26%).
1c) Asian opening report
Iran says Qatar-mediated talks are making progress; European bourses set for a firmer open – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 01:46 AM
- US President Trump would reportedly be able to resume strikes a day after the midterms, while Iran says Qatar-mediated talks are making progress.
- APAC stocks were mixed, partially shrugging off Friday’s tech rout on Wall Street, while US equity futures rebounded ahead of Apple’s earnings and Tuesday’s US midterms.
- European equity futures indicate a mildly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.3%, after the cash market closed down 1.2% on Friday.
- DXY was uneventful, while Chinese official PMIs fell into contraction and crude futures retreated amid hopes for diplomacy.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q4), Chinese NPC Standing Committee (2-6 Nov). Speakers include ECB’s Vujcic & Fed’s Goolsbee. Earnings from Apple.
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IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump reiterated that the conflict with Iran is expected to “end very soon.” Trump separately commented on Sunday that he had a good talk with Israeli PM Netanyahu and discussed Iran.
- US President Trump said regarding Iran that they will put it away soon one way or another, while he warned that either Iran will make a deal or they will just end it.
- US President Trump reportedly could resume strikes on Iran a day after the midterm elections, according to MS Now, while a Chinese media report also noted that Trump plans to resume military strikes against Tehran after the US midterm elections.
- US President Trump is reportedly focused on getting nuclear concessions from Iran and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while US officials are concentrating on limiting any new action against Iran to possibly just days, according to Jerusalem Post.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said President Trump has not yet decided whether to resume military action against Iran, but would like to resolve the conflict diplomatically.
- US Central Command posted that the Iranian Foreign Minister’s recent claim that Iran has not attacked civilians in neighbouring countries is false, while CENTCOM added that Iran has not only intentionally attacked civilian infrastructure, neighbourhoods, and other facilities in neighbouring Gulf countries, but it has also deliberately attacked civilian mariners at sea.
- An Israeli source said Israeli PM Netanyahu urged US President Trump to strike Iran immediately after Tuesday’s midterm elections, while Trump is said to favour letting negotiations continue, according to Axios.
- Israel’s Mossad and IDF appear to be divided on targets for new Iran operations, with Mossad chief Gof drafting plans to advance Israeli PM Netanyahu’s push for Iranian regime change, while the IDF is focused primarily on eliminating concrete threats. Furthermore, the potential targets cited include Pickaxe Mountain, new facilities linked to weapons R&D, newly built or repaired ballistic missile production sites and strategic weapons projects, according to sources cited by Jerusalem Post.
- Israeli news site Walla quoted officials stating that Israel will receive advance warning if Washington decides to launch an attack on Iran, according to Al Jazeera.
- Gulf states warned that a renewed US–Israel strike on Iran could trigger a larger regional war.
- Iranian negotiators held talks with Qatari mediators in Doha on Saturday to discuss potential pathways to ending the Gulf conflict, as diplomats seek to prevent a renewed outbreak of hostilities after the midterm elections, according to Reuters, citing a source briefed on the negotiations. It was separately reported by Axios that the Iranian delegation left Doha and mediators are working on addressing the remaining concerns of both parties.
- Iranian Presidency said the Foreign Minister briefed the government on the latest progress in talks with the US conducted via intermediaries.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said talks mediated by Qatar are ongoing and making progress, although no final conclusion has been reached. Araghchi also commented that Tehran has studied US VP Vance’s message and discussed it at a high level, while he added the US effort to open a broader dialogue is a positive step, but there are no current plans for a meeting with US officials and that Tehran will decide whether talks are direct or indirect after the US accepts Iran’s conditions. Furthermore, he stated that the current proposal on the table is the same as Iran’s 7-day plan and that mediators presented proposals on the nuclear issue, which Tehran is examining.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said that Tehran is prepared on both defence and diplomatic fronts, while he added that which route it pursues depends on whether the US acts rationally. Furthermore, it was stated that Iran urged the US to remain rational and prioritise diplomacy over other options.
- Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered senior military commanders to prepare for a renewed confrontation with the US and Israel, as well as expand Tehran’s retaliation options, despite his top diplomat signalling progress in diplomatic talks, while he told IRGC chiefs that “every level and type of threat must be met with an immediate, effective response, without geographical limitations”.
- IRGC intelligence said it arrested a spy who had passed operational details of a UAV and missile-parts production centre in the Markazi province to a foreign adversary.
- Drones attacked two fishing boats 14 nautical miles south of Iran’s Qeshm Island, leaving two fishermen missing and two wounded, Iran’s semi-official FARS news agency reported on Saturday. It was also reported by IRIB that a Hormozgan province official said that the US had attacked two fishing boats near Qeshm Island.
- IRGC targeted a violating vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Sabereen News.
- UKMTO received a report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz, where a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile, while it also received a report of an incident 72 nautical miles east of Ras Al Khafji, Saudi Arabia, in which a tanker was struck by two unknown projectiles, although the crew was accounted for and there were no reported environmental impacts.
- Two oil tankers struck mines on the ‘unauthorised route’ in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian media.
- Israeli airstrike interrupted a speech by Lebanon’s Minister of Social Affairs in southern Lebanon.
- A Saudi-led coalition said it carried out precision strikes on Houthi forces aimed at destroying key resources the Houthis use to support their military operations.
- Yemeni security official said Houthi forces launched missiles towards an area near a government military facility in the southern port city of Aden.
- Several large explosions were heard in Khamis Mushait, southwestern Saudi Arabia, Tasnim reported, citing Arabian media, while Saudi Civil Defence later said that the danger has passed in the Saudi cities of Abha, Najran and Taif.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks tumbled on Friday in a tech-led sell-off, which saw the Nasdaq 100 briefly enter correction territory following a slew of woeful tech earnings and updates. Intel (INTC) slumped following weak results, disappointing next-quarter guidance and cautious commentary on the PC market, weighing on broader PC names. Meanwhile, SanDisk’s (SNDK) earnings pressured the memory sector, while Amazon (AMZN) shares initially slid following a weak quarter and disappointing FCF, although they managed to claw back much of their losses. AI concerns also mounted after Blackstone told Anthropic that it may not receive an investment-grade credit rating, according to the FT. The majority of sectors were hit, particularly Tech, which dropped over 4%, while Industrials, Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary also lagged amid the AI and mega-cap stock rout. Energy stocks outperformed alongside Consumer Staples, Utilities, Health Care and Real Estate, with higher crude prices supporting Energy, while the defensive nature of the other sectors helped them hold up in the risk-off trade. The VIX peaked just shy of 24, but as stocks moved off their lows in the final hour of trade, it retreated below 20.
- SPX -1.83% at 7,579, NDX -3.46% at 28,385, DJI -1.09% at 51,771, RUT -1.75% at 2,809.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US President Trump said he spoke with Canadian PM Carney the other day and they are close to a deal, stating that they have the concept of a very good deal with Canada which will build and pay for the Keystone Pipeline.
- Canadian PM Carney said he held a productive conversation with US President Trump on bilateral trade and that both sides are exploring a framework for a mutually beneficial Canada‑US trade agreement.
- Canadian PM Carney said Canada would not hurry into a trade deal with the US unless the terms were in its best interests, while he suggested Canada would remain in President Trump’s crosshairs after the US midterm elections.
- Canadian Foreign Minister Anand said the country is making rapid progress in diversifying its trade and security ties around the world with a goal of doubling its non-US trade in the next decade, as Ottawa emphasises trust in building new relationships outside North America.
- Chinese Premier Li Qiang told visiting German President Steinmeier that China is willing to increase imports of high-quality German products and urged both countries to uphold free trade and open cooperation amid rising protectionism. Li also called for expanded cooperation through bilateral consultation mechanisms in the automotive, chemical, AI, digital and green industries, according to a Chinese foreign ministry readout.
- China’s MOFCOM said the nation’s upgraded free-trade agreement with Peru took effect on Sunday, expanding provisions covering e-commerce, global supply chains, competition policy and the environment.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Logan (2026 voter) said on Friday that the Fed needs at least two more 25bps rate hikes, although a pause following 50bps of tightening would make sense to assess the need for further action. Logan said gradual policy adjustments could reduce the risk of a sharp economic deterioration and allow households, businesses and investors to adapt to higher rates, while she stated that the ultimate objective is to make policy modestly restrictive and stressed that it was unacceptable that inflation was not returning to the Fed’s 2% target. Furthermore, she said that skipping a meeting would not alter the eventual policy destination.
- Fed’s Musalem (2028 voter) said on Friday that the Fed would need to raise interest rates again ‘soon’, arguing that earlier action would reduce the risk of broader economic damage, while inflation remained too high and was unlikely to ease without further central bank action. Musalem favoured incremental rate adjustments over abrupt moves and noted that higher long-term bond yields reflected expectations of higher policy rates, while overall financial conditions remained accommodative. Musalem outlined two possible inflation scenarios, with the more likely outcome being that inflation remains elevated without further rate hikes, while a less likely but plausible alternative would see no additional tightening required.
- US President Trump said he may have to become “Mr Veto” if Democrats secure a majority in Tuesday’s midterm elections, according to a clip of his New York Post interview aired on Fox News.
- White House has reportedly been preparing contingency plans for months to advance parts of the president’s agenda by executive action if Democrats win control of Congress and has prepared for congressional investigations of the administration.
- OpenAI reportedly lowered its fundraising target by USD 10bln to around USD 20bln at a USD 1.25tln valuation, down from USD 30bln at a USD 1.4tln valuation last month, as an AI stock sell-off and rival Anthropic’s anticipated public listing complicate efforts to secure investor commitments, according to the Financial Times.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were ultimately mixed as the region partially shrugged off last Friday’s continued tech rout on Wall St, where the Nasdaq briefly dipped into correction territory following weak earnings, while participants were cautious ahead of the US midterm elections on Tuesday and as they second-guess whether US President Trump will resume strikes on Iran post-election, although there were some hopes for diplomacy after Iran held talks with Qatari mediators in Doha.
- ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in miners, materials, resources and financials heading into a widely expected rate hike by the RBA tomorrow and with Westpac shares indecisive following its earnings results.
- Nikkei 225 saw choppy price action in which it swung between gains and losses, but clawed back initial losses and returned to above the 63,000 level.
- KOSPI rebounded from an initial dip and outperformed its regional peers, with South Korean President Lee pledging that the government will nearly double AI investment spending next year to KRW 21.3tln, while he also commented that the Future Response Fund will be a strategic investment platform, as well as a fiscal stability mechanism.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned following a recent slew of earnings, including from China’s big four banks, which all posted profit growth and with the PBoC meeting with Chinese regulators and major banks to discuss measures to support the capital market. In addition, the central bank announced changes to its 7-day reverse repo operations and shifted to overnight reverse repos as its main policy anchor, while participants also digested the latest PMI data, which was mixed as the official releases missed expectations and fell into contraction territory, but the Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI continued to show an expansion.
- US equity futures rebounded after last Friday’s selling pressure, but with the upside capped as participants await looming key events including Apple’s earnings after-hours and tomorrow’s midterm elections.
- European equity futures indicate a mildly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.2% on Friday.
FX
- DXY traded uneventfully as mixed geopolitical headlines dominated weekend newsflow, with markets bracing for the midterm elections and whether US President Trump will resume strikes on Iran, while hawkish comments from a couple of Fed officials on Friday regarding the need for further hikes did little to shift the dial, and a suggestion from President Trump that they are close to a deal with Canada also failed to spur price action.
- EUR/USD eked out slight gains in uneventful trade and after the latest protests in France were mostly peaceful, although Fitch placed France’s credit rating on negative outlook in an unscheduled move on Friday.
- GBP/USD lacked demand following its recent pullback beneath the 1.3400 handle and amid quiet catalysts for the FX space, while there were reports that the BoE is considering easing restrictions on higher-risk mortgage lending.
- USD/JPY resumed last Friday’s intraday rebound from support around the 157.00 level, with the pair unfazed by the quasi jawboning from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, who noted that PM Takaichi said the yen’s undervaluation is problematic and that the government remains ready to take action against disorderly FX moves, but also stated that conditions have improved from before and that she couldn’t say if current levels are good or bad.
- Antipodeans slightly weakened after their recent choppy performances and mixed data from Australia, while the latest official Chinese PMI data from over the weekend disappointed, with all figures slipping beneath the 50 benchmark level, although the Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory.
- PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7146 vs exp. 6.6625 (prev. 6.7138).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures were little changed amid relatively quiet newsflow from the US outside of geopolitics, although there were comments from Fed officials on Friday with Logan (2026 voter) stating that at least two more 25bps rate hikes are needed but a pause following 50bps of tightening would make sense to assess the need for further action, while Musalem (2028 voter) said the Fed would need to raise rates again ‘soon’, arguing that earlier action would reduce the risk of broader economic damage whilst inflation remained too high and it was unlikely to ease without further action.
- Bund futures saw two-way price action and returned to flat territory amid a lack of pertinent catalysts and following the unrest that erupted in Frankfurt, where rioters looted stores on Saturday after tens of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets across Germany’s major cities, calling for better education and lower living costs.
- 10yr JGB futures pulled back from last Friday’s post-BoJ highs with demand not helped by supply in the form of a 5-year Japan Climate Transition Bond auction.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures retreated amid some hopes for diplomacy after Iran held talks with mediators in Doha to discuss potential pathways to ending the Gulf conflict, while Iran’s Foreign Minister said that talks mediated by Qatar were making progress, although no final conclusion was reached. Nonetheless, there were plenty of geopolitical headlines from over the weekend, including a report that US President Trump could resume strikes on Iran a day after the midterm elections and that Israeli PM Netanyahu urged Trump to strike Iran immediately after the midterm elections, although Trump was said to favour letting negotiations continue.
- Major OPEC+ producers reaffirmed their plans to keep December oil production quotas unchanged, as the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to disrupt a significant portion of the group’s output, while it was separately reported that potential adjustments to output policy could be considered in 2027, with the group expected to complete an assessment of member countries’ production capacities before determining quota baselines for 2027, according to Reuters, citing sources familiar with the matter.
- US is pushing for a quick resumption of Russian natural-gas sales to Europe via pipelines running through Ukraine in an effort to unlock an energy ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv, but faces resistance in European capitals, according to WSJ.
- Russia has extended its ban on diesel exports by producers until January 31, 2027, in a move aimed at maintaining stability in the domestic fuel market, according to the government.
- Germany is set to miss its November 1 target for filling natural gas storage facilities, with reserves standing at 61.17% as of Friday, well below the 70% goal. The shortfall comes as colder weather sets in and despite efforts to increase fuel purchases through state-owned energy company SEFE, leaving the country with a reduced buffer ahead of peak winter demand, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data.
- Spot gold recouped some of last week’s losses after slumping beneath the USD 4,000/oz level, with the partial rebound coinciding with a pullback in oil prices.
- Copper futures kept afloat as the overall mixed risk appetite gradually improved.
- China’s reserves of strategic resources, including gold, nickel and rhenium, rose sharply following a nationwide reassessment of deposits, with retained rhenium resources increasing by more than 200% and additions to gold and nickel reserves equivalent to 50 and 30 large deposits, respectively, according to Xinhua, citing the Ministry of Natural Resources.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin gradually edged higher after rebounding from a brief dip beneath the USD 78,000 level.
- Binance announced the resumption of withdrawals in phases on Sunday, two days after hackers attempted to steal more than USD 6bln from the crypto exchange in the largest cyber theft on record.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC was reported to meet with the NFRA, CSRC and major banks on Monday to discuss measures to support the capital market, including improvements to a relending programme for share buybacks and stake increases, according to Cailian, citing industry sources.
- PBoC announced changes to its 7-day reverse repo operations on Friday, which will move to fixed-quantity, rate-tender auctions with multiple winning prices. PBoC said other tools, including temporary repos and offshore central bank repo tools, will be priced off the overnight reverse repo rate, while 7-day reverse repo operations will mainly take place around tax periods and month-end.
- China’s DeepSeek launched a prototype of a more autonomous coding agent, dubbed “Super-Agent”, as it seeks to challenge Anthropic’s Claude Code, with the open-source offering able to proactively monitor developers’ group chats for coding issues and suggest solutions without being prompted.
- Macau’s gaming revenue in October fell for a fifth consecutive month with gross gaming revenue down 10% Y/Y to MOP 21.68bln, as weak spending by high-end players offset a surge in Golden Week visitors.
- Australian PM Albanese is reportedly set to visit Beijing next month in an effort to stabilise relations between the two countries, following his attendance at the APEC leaders’ summit in Shenzhen on November 18-19, according to the South China Morning Post, citing unidentified sources.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.3 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 50.1)
- Chinese NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.7 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.2)
- Chinese NBS General PMI (Oct) 49.7 (Prev. 50.7)
- Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 52.0 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 52.1)
- South Korean Trade Balance (Oct) 42.50B vs. Exp. 37.24B (Prev. 49.97B)
- South Korean Exports (Oct YY) 93.7% vs. Exp. 93.2% (Prev. 83.7%)
- South Korean Imports (Oct YY) 36% vs. Exp. 39.9% (Prev. 26%)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- A drone attack caused significant damage to an industrial facility in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod region following a large-scale assault, according to regional governor Nikitin.
- Ukrainian drones struck a refinery complex deep inside Russia, while Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine continued efforts to restore electricity following Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said if Washington wants Kyiv to refrain from striking Russian refineries, Moscow must stop attacking Ukraine’s energy system, while he said Ukraine has proposed to the US the purchase of Patriot missiles and is willing to raise the necessary funding.
- Ukraine’s air alert warning system was hacked, according to reports citing the Ukrainian air force.
- US First Lady Melania Trump posted that the Oleshky ceasefire concluded on November 1st and that the mission was a success, delivering critical aid to the region and enabling the evacuation of nearly 800 people.
- US Secretary of State Rubio defended the decision to include Russia in the G20 meetings following criticism from the EU and other allies, stating that dialogue is the only way to end the war in Ukraine, while it was reported that Rubio said he briefly discussed with the Russian Foreign Minister the possibility of a meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in China this month, on the sidelines of the APEC summit.
- US reconnaissance aircraft patrolled near the border between Baltic states and Russia for over five hours, according to RIA.
- Russian President Putin agreed to halt the recruitment of Ghanaian nationals to fight in Ukraine following concerns raised by Ghanaian President Mahama, according to Ghana’s foreign minister.
- Russia’s Emergency Ministry mobile app was hit by a massive cyber attack, while the hacking resulted in the spread of fake information.
- EU foreign policy chief Kallas said Russian President Putin’s potential attendance at the G20 leaders’ summit in Florida in December would risk normalising Russia’s return to international forums while the war in Ukraine continues.
- US Embassy in Moscow warned of a credible threat of a mass casualty event at the Tsaritsyno Museum Reserve on Saturday, stating it was coordinating with Russian authorities on a response, and urged US citizens to avoid the area, while it was separately reported that Russia’s Federal Security Service said it had detained a teenage boy on suspicion of plotting a terrorist attack targeting a park and museum in Moscow.
- Serbia’s central bank revoked the operating licence of Alta Bank, a lender used by Russians that has come under international scrutiny over suspected money laundering, according to FT.
OTHER
- North Korea’s defence science research institute tested a major weapon system to assess combat suitability and effectiveness of a cluster-bomb warhead designed for tactical ballistic missiles, according to KCNA.
- North Korea said it is to speed up strengthening its nuclear war deterrent and that the US-South Korea ‘Iron Mace’ drill was a nuclear war rehearsal targeting North Korea, according to KCNA.
- South Korea’s army said a staff sergeant died after suffering external injuries at a frontline unit near the border with North Korea in Cheorwon.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- BoE is reportedly considering easing restrictions on higher-risk mortgage lending, with its Financial Policy Committee reviewing a proposal to raise the income multiple threshold to 5x from the current 4.5x, following pressure from lenders and the government, according to the Financial Times.
- UK Chancellor Healey hinted at a delay in equalising minimum wages for young people, declining to reiterate the government’s commitment to bringing them in line with the national standard during this Parliament, amid a youth unemployment crisis.
- Trade union chiefs warned UK Chancellor Healey against pursuing “a trade-off between jobs and wages” after he signalled the Labour manifesto pledge to close the minimum wage gap for young people would be delayed until after the next election, according to FT.
- Rioters looted stores in Frankfurt late on Saturday after tens of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets across Germany’s major cities, calling for better education and lower living costs.
- Police secured the Bastille area in Paris following largely peaceful protests, while demonstrations also took place in Marseille, where tensions later escalated after mostly peaceful rallies.
- Belgian PM De Wever is said to offer resignation to the king, according to local press.
- Fitch placed France’s credit rating on negative outlook and affirmed its A+ sovereign rating in an unscheduled move on Friday, reflecting concerns over the deteriorating state of the country’s public finances, while Fitch affirmed Slovakia at A-; outlook stable.
2.NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA/
JAPAN//
CHINA
Shorts Beware? China’s Plunge Protection Team Stabilizes Stocks With $15 Billion Swap Rescue Plan
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 09:55 AM
China’s version of the Plunge Protection Team is coming out swinging Monday morning, after the central bank announced earlier today that it would inject a new round of a $15 billion swap facility to rescue stocks from a vicious bear market.
After markets closed, the People’s Bank of China said it would hold a one-year swap auction Tuesday, with 31 brokerages and funds applying for quotas totaling more than $15 billion. The facility lets financial firms exchange eligible assets for highly liquid central bank assets, increasing their ability to buy equities.
South China Morning Post said the 31 institutions, including securities firms and asset management companies, applied for the facility, which would allow their trading desks to buy stocks mired in a downturn since summer.
Yuan Weitao, fund manager at Xi’an-based asset management firm Guofulianhe, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying, “Today’s move provides crucial incremental liquidity at a time when the market lacks fresh capital to absorb selling pressure, helping it stabilize and find a bottom. “
Weitao noted, “Rather than stepping in with large-scale funding after every sharp decline, the authorities and regulators are taking a more measured approach and allowing the market to adjust on its own.”
The measure added stability to the CSI 300 Index, which gained .8%, while the technology-heavy Star 50 climbed more than 3%. The rebound followed an 8.5% October decline in the CSI 300 and a record 12 consecutive weekly losses through Friday that tumbled into a bear market. 
“The message is fairly straightforward. Beijing appears increasingly uncomfortable allowing the equity rout to develop its own momentum, particularly when the AI trade is already under pressure globally,” said Stephen Innes, a managing partner at SPI Asset Management, quoted by SCMP.
Innes said, “Whether another round of officially encouraged buying can restore genuine investor confidence is another matter, but when China’s national team starts assembling around the market, the shorts would be wise to keep one eye on the policy headlines and the other on the exit.”
Last week, Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett, BNP Paribas, and Goldman Sachs all pointed to signs of China’s PPT ramping up to save stocks.
Most notably, Goldman’s Asia desk recently said that “state-backed ‘national team’ ETF buying supported the recovery, with turnover across nine favored ETFs reaching RMB84bn ($12.6bn), after the market entered bear-market territory on Thursday.”
What’s clear in our view is that the downside risk to Chinese stocks may be contained for now, but really, how long will that optimism last when cracks in the AI trade have already materialized in the US?
“A short-term rebound may take place any time, but that cannot extrapolate a trend reversal. A restart of the AI trade requires a strengthening of the narrative and a further fallback in crowding,” Kaiyuan Securities analyst Wei Jixing said.
end
CHINA/RUSSIA
China Secures Massive Discount On Russian Gas As Moscow’s Leverage Weakens
Friday, Oct 30, 2026 – 10:35 PM
Authored by Eurasianet via OilPrice,
- Russian government projections show China paying approximately 56% less for Russian natural gas than other foreign customers outside the former Soviet Union in 2026.
- Chinese companies are advancing major copper, port infrastructure, energy, and technology initiatives across Central Asia.
- Beijing is strengthening its regional influence through investments, digital connectivity, and partnerships with Central Asian governments.
Russia is giving China a huge discount on natural gas purchases, underscoring the Kremlin’s fiscal dependency on Beijing. The Moscow Times (MT), citing Russian Duma documentation, shows that China will pay an average of approximately $248 per thousand cubic meters of pipeline gas in 2026, compared with $562 for Gazprom’s other foreign customers outside the former Soviet Union.
That means Beijing is receiving as much as a 56 percent discount on its purchase price. The steep discount appears to be the cost of Beijing’s ongoing political support for the Kremlin’s war effort in Ukraine.
Given the Western sanctions regime and the European Union’s efforts to reduce its reliance on Russian gas, China’s purchases are a crucial source of funds needed to keep Russia’s war machine going. Russia hopes to reduce the discounts in the coming years, according to the MT report. To put Russia’s weak negotiating position into context, an estimate published by Carnegie’s Russia Eurasia Center showed China is paying up to $60 per tcm more to Turkmenistan than the Russian purchase price. 
Meanwhile, talks of creating a “Power of Siberia 2” pipeline have stalled over a pricing dispute, according to Beijing-connected media reports. “It’s much harder for Russian negotiators today,” Sergei Vakulenko, a senior fellow at Carnegie, wrote in the estimate. “On the one hand, the growing confrontation between the United States and China, and the instability in the Middle East, should push China into reducing LNG imports in favor of pipeline gas, which would likely be to Moscow’s advantage,” Vakulenko stated. “On the other hand, the break with Europe has left Gazprom with huge gas reserves in Siberia’s Yamal Peninsula that are ready to be exploited but have no customers, significantly strengthening China’s position.”
Central Asia
Chinese Premier Li Qiang traveled to Central Asia on October 17-19, visiting Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. The tour produced deals with both Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, including for a non-ferrous metallurgy industrial cluster in the Sughd region. For more about Li’s visit, see this Eurasianet report.
China’s Institute of East European, Russian, and Central Asian Studies (IREECAS), a major government think tank that informs Beijing’s regional policymaking, co-organized a China-Central Asia forum in the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek for regional scholars and experts. The meeting focused on the “preparation of practical recommendations” for regional governments on a wide range of domestic and international policies. IREECAS also held a joint event with Uzbekistan’s presidential think tank, ISRS, in Tashkent, focusing on government efforts to promote artificial intelligence and digital transformation. At the conclusion of the gathering, IREECAS and ISRS announced the signing of a program of joint events and initiatives for 2027. IREECAS’s activities fit into China’s growing push to exert influence on the direction of Central Asian states’ domestic and international policymaking.
Kazakhstan
Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev launched construction of a $1.8 billion copper smelter at the Aktogay deposit in Kazakhstan’s Abai region. The project, developed by Kazakh mining company KAZ Minerals, with NFC, a subsidiary of China Nonferrous Metal Mining Group (CNMC), is designed to produce 300,000 tons of copper cathodes annually, alongside gold and sulfuric acid, and is expected to create more than 1,000 jobs. First production is scheduled for 2030. Tokayev separately met with CNMC Chairman Wen Gang, who pledged to complete construction on schedule and expand cooperation in workforce training. However, a Chinese corporate disclosure dated October 21 indicates that NFC’s Kazakh entity has signed only a preparatory-work agreement, capped at 4.52 billion tenge (about $10 million), and that the full construction contract remains unsigned. KAZ Minerals and NFC also signed a memorandum of understanding on geological exploration and mineral-resource assessment in Kazakhstan, according to the official state news agency Kazinform. The companies plan to explore the use of remote sensing, geophysical and geochemical surveys, artificial intelligence, and three-dimensional geological modeling to reassess historical geological data and identify potential drilling sites. The memorandum also provides for possible specialist training, joint research, and educational programs, with a cooperation roadmap to be developed. No financial commitments, specific exploration sites, or implementation deadlines were disclosed.
Kazakhstan’s national investment holding Baiterek JSC announced the signing of an MoU with the Chinese firm Guoyou Materials Group covering a $1 billion investment to develop the port of Kuryk, a major Middle Corridor hub on the Caspian Sea’s Kazakh shore. The project’s first phase envisions the creation of a multifunctional terminal with a capacity of 15 million tons of cargo per year.
Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation reported that 25 Kazakh water-sector specialists are currently participating in training programs in China focused on irrigation modernization, water-saving technologies, digital water management, and small hydropower.
Kazakhstan’s Committee for National Security (KNB) reported that it detained 13 Chinese nationals allegedly operating an international online fraud scheme out of Kazakhstan that targeted individuals in other countries. The KNB officials noted that they conducted their investigation jointly with China’s Ministry of Public Security, which identified some suspects as wanted for similar offenses in China. All 13 suspects were transferred to Chinese custody to await prosecution.
Kazakhstan received observer status in the China-initiated Alliance for Cultural Heritage in Asia, according to Kazinform. Some observers see the organization as designed to advance state-led historical narratives and promote the strategic use of cultural heritage as a diplomatic tool. Kazakhstan proposed expanding cooperation in the sphere of specialist training, AI-assisted monitoring of cultural heritage sites and joint archaeological research along the Silk Road. No specific funding commitments or projects were announced.
Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry held an economic conference in Tashkent with a delegation from the Chinese city of Shihezi in Xinjiang Province to discuss expanding bilateral cooperation, investment, and joint projects. The conference yielded several agreements covering logistics, construction, energy, and technology sectors. No details were immediately disclosed.
China is trying to take some energy-sector business away from Russia. The heads of Uzbekistan’s largest state-run oil and gas company, Uzbekneftegaz, and China’s largest oil and gas producer, CNPC, held talks in Tashkent to discuss expanding energy-sector cooperation. CNPC expressed readiness to help Uzbekneftegaz diversify petroleum product supplies and establish a permanent representative office in Tashkent. Russia has reduced its supply of oil-based products to Central Asian states in recent months, due to the destruction of energy infrastructure by Ukrainian drones.
Tajikistan
Tajikistan’s national telecom operator, Tajiktelecom, and the PRC’s largest telecom operator, China Mobile, launched the Tajikistan-China International Digital Corridor, a fiber-optic line that runs 1,010 km from Dushanbe through Khorog to the Kulma Pass, where it joins China Mobile’s 6,100 km network to Beijing, Tajik authorities report. The initial capacity is 1 Tbps, but it is expected to rise to 10 Tbps in the coming years. Tajikistan sees it as a step toward its ambition of becoming a hub of the Digital Silk Road and a leading regional AI player.
Tajikistan’s Ministry of Energy and Water Resources signed an MoU with Xinjiang Shouhai Power Development, a Chinese energy company, to explore the hydropower potential of the Obihingou River, Tajikistan’s official news agency Khovar reports. According to a Soviet-era assessment, the river has an estimated annual hydropower-generating capacity of 2.6 gigawatts.
Turkmenistan
Ashgabat hosted a trade and economic forum involving companies from the PRC’s Shanxi Province, Orient.tm reports. The forum resulted in the signing of two comparatively minor contracts between Turkmen and Chinese companies.
END
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
FRANCE
France’s Debt Alarm Gets Louder: Fitch Cuts Outlook To Negative In Surprise Warning
Saturday, Oct 31, 2026 – 09:25 AM
One week after Moody’s maintained France’s Aa3 sovereign credit rating with a negative outlook, Fitch Ratings revised its outlook to negative in what Bloomberg described as an “unscheduled move,” citing softer economic growth, rising borrowing costs, a widening budget deficit, political fragmentation, and a challenging social backdrop.
“The Negative Outlook reflects a deterioration since our August 2026 review comprising weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and a wider deficit. Taken together, these worsen debt dynamics from an already weak starting point. Persistent political fragmentation and a challenging social backdrop increase the difficulty of delivering sustained fiscal consolidation,” the ratings agency wrote in a statement on Friday evening.
Fitch wrote in the “key rating drivers” section of the statement that French government debt is now forecast to reach about 124% of GDP in 2028, up from 115.7% in 2025 and above Fitch’s previous projection of 122.7%.
“We estimate the cumulative fiscal adjustment needed to stabilize debt has risen to around 3.5% of GDP, from 3.0% in August,” Fitch said.
Translation: France’s years of deficit spending to fund its welfare state have brought it to a so-called fiscal brick wall. The country must introduce common-sense fiscal discipline, such as spending cuts, lower transfers to the EU and reduced migrant spending, measures that presidential candidate Marine Le Pen already offered in a proposed “shadow budget” in early October.
Meanwhile, rising debt-service costs have added immense fiscal pressure. France’s 10-year government bond yield climbed above 5% in recent weeks and, as of Friday, stood at around 4.92%.
The French 10-year OAT-Bund spread, which measures the difference between France’s and Germany’s 10-year government borrowing costs, has blown out over the last two months, briefly topping 175 basis points.
A widening spread means investors demand a larger yield premium to hold French debt, signaling greater risk around France’s finances, political stability or debt outlook. That spread is the highest since the eurozone crisis nearly two decades ago.
France’s failure to correct its debt binge, or a further deterioration in medium-term growth, could trigger a downgrade. Credit risk is surging, with five-year credit default swap hitting levels not seen since the EU sovereign debt crisis. 
Fitch forecasts economic growth of .5% this year and .9% in 2027, with further downside risks from social unrest, weak investment and potential energy shocks.
Perhaps the social unrest from far-left groups makes even more sense given that handouts and a generous welfare state are set to be dialed back. Le Pen’s odds of becoming the next president are rising, and she has warned that social spending will have to be reduced or France could face a sovereign debt crisis if Macron’s policies continue.
Macron is ending his term amid an embarrassing crisis as fiscal troubles, unfettered mass migration, and a cracking welfare state all collide at once.
END
FRANCE/GERMANY
KOLBE..
Hand In Hand Toward The Abyss
Saturday, Oct 31, 2026 – 08:00 AM
Authored by Thomas Kolbe via American Thinker,
With massive state demand, Berlin and Paris hoped to escape the debt spiral. But economic data show that, in the end, not even statistical pseudo-growth remains. The pillars of the EU are crumbling amid structural failure.
Fateful weeks on the bond markets: The rise in French bond yields continues unabated. At the same time, German yields are falling – the first wave of capital flight within the eurozone has begun. Investors are steering toward the supposedly safe harbor of Germany.
France’s immense budget problem, the chaos on its streets, its fundamentally misguided economic policy, and the astonishing reform incapacity of the French classe politique are sinking ever deeper into the consciousness of the markets.
The femme fatale of the eurozone’s debt club is threatening the tectonics of the entire EU in these recent weeks. For now, Germany remains firmly embedded as the credit anchor of the common capital market, but France’s shockwaves bode ill: If the trend in French bonds does not reverse very soon, the ECB’s fire brigade will probably be called in to extinguish the blaze.
This is an important lesson for all those who still believe that government debt can solve social problems – or even generate prosperity: State consumption crowds out the private economy. France has made this dish its recurring daily menu.
France’s statism is legendary. With government spending at 57.2 percent of GDP and a tax-and-levy burden of 43.6 percent, the country has succumbed to the illusion that state control can secure prosperity permanently.
France’s economic situation in early autumn is dire, though hardly surprising. Construction is stuck deep in the valley of tears, with a Purchasing Managers’ Index of 39.8 points. In October, manufacturing slipped back into contraction territory, with a preliminary PMI of 49.3 points. Industrial production offers little reason for optimism either: In the third quarter, it was 1.9 percent below the previous quarter. France is being deindustrialized just like its eastern neighbor.
What is actually rising is new borrowing as well as prices: For 2026, the French government now expects a budget deficit of 5.4 percent of GDP; in September, the inflation rate stood at 3.1 percent. Anyone who still hopes that France can spend its way out of the crisis with its own debt hammer now stands as an economic-policy laughingstock. It would be the first time a socialist state transformed its own inefficiencies into an economic triumph.
This insight applies to Germany as well. Meanwhile, the widening divergence in bond markets makes clear that the interests of Berlin and France’s political leadership are drifting further apart.
This is visible in Ukraine policy, but also in joint defense policy, which is probably on ice for the time being. And this will likely remain the case even if Marine Le Pen is elected France’s next president. She has already announced that Germany would have to shoulder larger parts of the EU budget. Given France’s pressing budget problems, this is unlikely to meet with much enthusiasm in Berlin. So there will be no partnership-based overhaul of the EU.
What still binds the two pillars of the EU together, however, is their faith in the welfare state and interventionist economic policy.
The Bundesbank – something the German government will not like to hear – saw the German economy stagnate again in the third quarter after its brief recovery in the first half of the year. No matter how much debt money the central planners let rain down through their green pseudo-economics, the damage they have left in the engine room of the real economy can no longer be covered even statistically by the largest new borrowing in the history of the Federal Republic.
Friedrich Merz and his debt minister, Lars Klingbeil, let the credit pump run at full speed in the first half of the year: The deficits of public households totaled 98.8 billion euros. The political class is charging forward, taking children – and even grandchildren – into debt bondage for its own political failure.
Germany is giving the economically uninitiated a bitter lesson: Government debt does not create growth. It is an expression of an imbalance between the public and private sectors. It fosters a naive belief in technocratic feasibility and a dangerous political megalomania that ultimately makes political fraying into madness possible: We have seen the consequences in migration policy, in the green transformation madness, and in German energy policy. If necessary, monetary policy and its credit pump will fix it – or so the childish thinking goes.
Back on the ground of reality, away from the political cloud of illusion, things look bleak: Between 10,000 and 15,000 industrial jobs are being lost every month. The chemical industry is crumbling, with capacity utilization at a mere 73 percent. Overall, industry has lost more than 15 percent of its production volume since the pre-lockdown era. In this political mode, nothing will succeed anymore.
Hand in hand, Germany and France are steering toward the abyss – with different domestic political goals, perhaps, but with the same fatal outcome: People are fleeing into the superstition of collectivism. They trust the political class rather than summoning the courage to follow Argentina’s example and smash the bureaucracy. In Argentina, 50,000 public-administration employees were dismissed, and the budget was repaired with a primary surplus. And the economy, too, got back on its feet.
Europe – especially France and Germany – needs a free-market injection and, above all, the willingness to make an honest diagnosis of the situation. Only then can we discuss the therapy.
END
GERMANY
Looting And Chaos Erupt In Germany As Europe Slides Deeper Into Crisis
Saturday, Oct 31, 2026 – 07:28 PM
Europe appears to have been thrown into an accelerated timeline of crises colliding at once, whether far-left social unrest in France, which has spread to several other countries, the unfolding debt crisis in France, or the political crisis in Poland that erupted in the last 24 hours. The momentum is troubling and concerning.
Beyond the political crisis in Poland and the US warning earlier today of a potential “mass casualty” incident in Moscow, another crisis appears to be unfolding in Germany on Halloween night: looting and chaos.
“The looting of stores has started in Frankfurt, Germany. Young first and second-generation migrants are attacking stores in the city,” Poland-based digital news outlet Visegrád 24 wrote on X.
A lot more footage of the looting has surfaced on X in the last few hours:
“German police were attacked with a Molotov cocktail in the city of Frankfurt on Halloween night. Youths participated in looting and clashes with police, with much of the footage livestreamed on TikTok,” Budapest-based news outlet Remix News & Views wrote on X.
Europe’s mounting crises point to a troubling deterioration in stability.
END
FRANCE/GERMANY SUNDAY
Looting And Chaos Erupt In Germany, Molotov Cocktails In Paris, As Europe Slides Deeper Into Crisis
Sunday, Nov 01, 2026 – 08:28 AM
Europe appears to have been thrown into an accelerated timeline of crises colliding at once, whether far-left social unrest in France, which has spread to several other countries, the unfolding debt crisis in France, or the political crisis in Poland that erupted in the last 24 hours. The momentum is troubling and concerning.
For the third Saturday in a row, Paris looked like a city under lockdown. More than 40 metro and RER stations were closed, and shopkeepers along the route boarded up their windows with plywood or kept their shutters down.
France’s seats of power, including the Élysée Palace, the prime minister’s office, and the National Assembly, were heavily guarded, even though the authorized march took place several miles to the east. Overnight curfews also restricted access to Place de la République and Les Halles, two areas ransacked on Oct. 17.
Some 70,000 police and gendarmes were deployed nationwide, and Nuñez said 40,000 checks had been carried out on roads and in train stations, 15,000 of them in the Paris region, to intercept weapons. Face coverings, Halloween masks included, were banned around the demonstrations.
France
Tens of thousands of left-wing demonstrators marched along the eastern edge of Paris on Saturday, in a third straight weekend of nationwide protests marked by a Molotov cocktail attack on a gendarme, clashes in several major cities, and a call by far-left student unions for new blockades of high schools and universities from Tuesday.
As Etienne Fauchaire reported for The Epoch Times, the Interior Ministry counted 320,000 demonstrators across France, including 70,000 in Paris, down from 410,000 the previous Saturday and roughly 550,000 on Oct. 17, when rioters looted hundreds of shops. Organizers claimed nearly 500,000 participants, including 200,000 in the capital.
By 9 p.m., 565 people had been arrested nationwide.
At an evening press conference, Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez said every march had contained groups of rioters and looters, “many of them driven by the ultra-left and the radical far left,” who attacked police with the goal of reaching the city centers “with unheard-of violence.”
He listed Paris, Montpellier, Toulouse, Rennes, Marseille, Nantes, Angers, and Tours as cities where groups of several hundred people had tried to break through police lines with mortar fireworks, paving stones, and other projectiles, and said firefighters had to put out numerous fires.
The most serious incident took place at the end of the Paris march near Porte de Charenton, where a Molotov cocktail landed on the shield of a mobile gendarmerie unit and set a gendarme alight before his colleagues put out the flames. He ended up being slightly injured, Nuñez said.
“When you throw a Molotov cocktail at a police line, I call that attempted murder,” the minister said, stating that everything would be done to identify the perpetrators.
Similar left-wing rallies took place in some 30 German cities on Saturday.
Germany
Beyond the political crisis in Poland and the US warning earlier today of a potential “mass casualty” incident in Moscow, another crisis appears to be unfolding in Germany on Halloween night: looting and chaos.
An initiative called “Gen Z regelt” (“Gen Z’s got this”) organized these protests “for education, health, climate protection and an affordable life” and opposing the return of military conscription.
Some protests in Germany also turned violent on Saturday night.
“The looting of stores has started in Frankfurt, Germany. Young first and second-generation migrants are attacking stores in the city,” Poland-based digital news outlet Visegrád 24 wrote on X.
A lot more footage of the looting has surfaced on X in the last few hours:
“German police were attacked with a Molotov cocktail in the city of Frankfurt on Halloween night. Youths participated in looting and clashes with police, with much of the footage livestreamed on TikTok,” Budapest-based news outlet Remix News & Views wrote on X.
Rest of Europe
In Portugal, thousands of demonstrators gathered in Lisbon once again to protest the housing crisis. The movement has faced criticism from the Portuguese right, which accuses left-wing and far-left groups of driving the protests.
In The Hague, Netherlands, protests broke out after calls to demonstrate circulated online. According to Dutch police, 34 people were arrested, and one officer was taken to hospital with suspected hearing damage after fireworks were thrown at police. As in Paris, many shops across the city had boarded up their windows amid fears of rioting.
On Oct. 30, large crowds took to the streets across Italy following a call to demonstrate by the Italian trade union USB. The union estimated that more than 1 million people participated in protests across 70 cities, while the Interior Ministry put the figure at 255,000. Violent clashes between demonstrators and police broke out in Rome, Turin, Mestre, Vicenza, and other cities, according to Corriere della Sera.
Europe’s mounting crises point to a troubling deterioration in stability.
END
POLAND/EU
Korybko: Tusk’s Judicial Coup Amounts To An Attempted German Takeover Of Poland By Proxy
Sunday, Nov 01, 2026 – 10:55 AM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Andrew Korybko’s Newsletter,
His judicial coup aims to oust the conservative president so that he can’t veto Poland’s financial subordination to the EU upon the liberal-controlled Sejm’s introduction of the euro and consequent transfer of Poland’s gold to the European Central Bank as part of a German takeover of Poland by proxy.
Conservative Polish MP-turned-MEP Dominik Tarczyński shared an infographic summarizing his viral video exposing the modus operandi of the larger coup that liberal Prime Minister Donald Tusk is attempting, which goes beyond his government’s armed takeover of the Constitutional Tribunal. According to Tarczyński, Tusk plans to oust conservative President Karol Nawrocki if successful, after which he’ll take over the Central Bank, introduce the euro, and transfer Poland’s gold to Germany.
About his last three points, Poland’s national currency remains strong, and its central bank has said it will raise its gold reserves to 700 tonnes, which would make them the 10th largest in the world. As of early this year, the Polish Central Bank has more gold than the European Central Bank, which is based in Frankfurt. Conservative grey cardinal Jarosław Kaczyński once accused Tusk of being a “German agent” due to how suspiciously close he’s been to Germany throughout his career. Tarczyński’s warning about Tusk’s plans should therefore be taken seriously.
Former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who now leads the Rozwój Plus (R+, Development Plus) party that broke from Kaczyński’s “Law & Justice” (PiS per its Polish abbreviation) earlier this year, warned of civil war if Tusk isn’t stopped and accused him of wanting to cancel next fall’s Sejm elections. Reputable polling indicates that the ruling liberal coalition will lose and be replaced by a coalition between the aforementioned two conservative parties and the two libertarian-nationalist ones.
Sławomir Mentzen, who’s the co-leader of the Confederation Liberty and Independence (simply Confederation) libertarian-nationalist opposition party, also warned about civil war but suggested a detailed plan for resetting the Constitutional Tribunal as a means of averting it. This could pair with Morawiecki’s proposal for an immediate vote of no confidence against Tusk and the formation of a technical government led by Marek Jurek till early elections are held in order to de-escalate the crisis.
As a reminder, Nawrocki officially described the actions of Tusk’s government as violating the constitutional order through the takeover of a constitutional state body by force, and Head of his International Policy Office Marcin Przydacz explained to the world why this is illegal. It’s accordingly perceived by the opposition as a judicial coup, one which the European Commission predictably supports but which a police trade union warned against continuing, so some members might defy Tusk.
If the larger coup that Tusk is attempting is successful through his attempted takeover of the Constitutional Tribunal, ousting of Nawrocki, subsequent takeover of the Central Bank, introduction of the euro, and transfer of Poland’s gold to Germany, then Poland will be subordinated to Germany. That goal was identified here as his main motive in order to derail Nawrocki’s EU reform plans and Poland’s rise as a regional power for facilitating the EU’s transformation into a German-dominated federation.
“Poland’s Ruling Liberals Are Already Blaming Russia For Their Attempted Judicial Coup“, and there are fears that “Tusk Permitted The Riot Police To Use Lethal Force To Put Down Anti-Coup Protests“, so peacefully protesting Poles might be killed on the false pretext of being “Russian agents”. If members of Tusk’s coalition don’t defect during the vote of no confidence, and the police later kill some anti-coup protesters, then Nawrocki might call in the military to stop Germany’s takeover of Poland by proxy.
We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.
END
POLAND/EUROPE
Poland Is The Symptom And Europe Is The Patient
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Larry C. Johnson via Sonar21,
The midnight brawl at Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal is not a Polish problem. It is the local flare-up of a continental disease. Across Europe, when voters pick the wrong candidate, the establishment reaches for a judge, an intelligence service or the EU’s checkbook, and calls the result “defending democracy.” The Journal of Democracy wrote the textbook. Warsaw is the teaching hospital.
The article
In December 2023, two months after Donald Tusk’s coalition pushed Law and Justice (PiS) out of power, Jarosław Kuisz and Karolina Wigura of Kultura Liberalna published a how-to guide in the Journal of Democracy. The title says it all: “How to Dismantle an Illiberal Democracy.”
Consider the provenance. At the time, the Journal was the flagship publication of the National Endowment for Democracy, the outfit that does in daylight what the CIA used to do at night. It split from NED this year after DOGE cut off NED’s funding in 2025, and it is now independent and partnered with Stanford’s CDDRL. In 2023, though, this was the democracy-promotion establishment telling Warsaw how to clean house.
The argument, stripped of its footnotes:
- Poland needs a “second wave” of transitional justice to deal with PiS “violations of the rule of law.”
- Avoid vague treason charges. Prosecute specific acts: the 2015 Constitutional Tribunal appointments, the 2020 attempt at an all-mail presidential election and the 2023 visa-for-cash scandal.
- Jarosław Kaczyński bears responsibility but will be hard to convict.
- Parliamentary investigative committees are the main tool.
- Expect resistance from the PiS-aligned presidency, Supreme Court and State Tribunal.
- Stabilize the system without breaking it.
The authors close with a disclaimer worth framing: “There is no clear roadmap… One should therefore not expect miracles.”
The critique
The defenders of democracy have written a manual for dismantling one. They don’t see the irony, and that is the most instructive thing about the essay.
Start with the word “illiberal.” It is not a legal category. It is a label handed out by people with conference budgets to governments they dislike. PiS won the 2015 and 2019 parliamentary elections outright. Yet the article treats its officials less like a defeated party and more like the communist nomenklatura of 1989, in need of a “transitional justice” process.
In fairness to Kuisz and Wigura, they are more careful than their cause. They warn against show trials and vague charges, and they admit nobody knows how to do this. But manuals are not read for their caveats. Politicians skip the footnotes and go straight to the chapter on tools.
Here is the core contradiction. PiS stands accused of capturing the courts, ignoring rulings and stacking institutions with loyalists. The cure prescribed is to purge the courts, ignore rulings and install the right loyalists. The sin becomes a sacrament when the right people commit it.
Poland, three years later: the manual in action
This week the manual left the library and went to the streets of Warsaw, escorted by riot police.
Since 2023, Tusk’s government has refused to recognize the Constitutional Tribunal and has ignored its rulings. Starting in March, parliament elected eight new judges. President Karol Nawrocki refused to swear in five of them. They held their own oath ceremony and mailed the oaths to the presidential palace, which is a new one even by Central European standards.
Then came October 30. According to Notes from Poland and ProtoThema:
- Judge Anna Korwin-Piotrowska suspended Chief Justice Bogdan Święczkowski and declared herself acting head of the Tribunal.
- Justice Minister Waldemar Żurek moved to strip Święczkowski’s immunity.
- Riot police blocked Święczkowski from entering his own court. His supporters cut through the fence with power tools.
- Nawrocki turned his plane around on the way to Senegal and, around 1 a.m., pushed his way past judges into the building. Each side accuses the other of physical aggression. Protesters outside called it a coup.
Tusk’s response, per Euronews: “In certain matters there can be no compromise.” He also warned about Russian bots, because no European crisis is complete without them.
Not everyone in the coalition is cheering. Szymon Hołownia said Poland should be ashamed and that forcing a fix only deepens the decline. Hołownia and the PSL are now attending Nawrocki’s talks. When your own partners start taking meetings with the other side, the roadmap has a pothole.
Kuisz and Wigura told us not to expect miracles. This isn’t a miracle. It’s a mirror.
The disease, not the symptom
Poland is just the case where the patient is thrashing hardest. Look at the rest of the ward and the same pathology shows up everywhere: elections treated as advisory, with the final say reserved for institutions nobody voted for.
- Romania. On December 6, 2024, the Constitutional Court annulled the first round of a presidential election after Călin Georgescu, an outsider polling in single digits, came in first. The grounds were declassified intelligence about “aggressive hybrid Russian attacks” and alleged illegal campaign financing. In March 2025 the electoral commission barred Georgescu from the rerun, while he was “the favourite in all the polls,” and the court unanimously agreed. That is one way to fix an election: hold it again without the winner.
- France. In March 2025 a Paris court convicted Marine Le Pen of embezzling EU parliamentary funds and banned her from office for five years, effective immediately. The frontrunner for 2027 was gone with one gavel. In July the appeals court upheld the conviction but cut the ban to 45 months, 30 of them suspended, so she can run after all. The judges giveth, and the judges taketh away. Either way, the judges decide.
- Germany. In May 2025, the BfV, Germany’s domestic intelligence service, branded the AfD a “confirmed right-wing extremist” party. The AfD polls at 24 to 26 percent. In February a Cologne court suspended the label, ruling the conditions for it “are not met.” Lawmakers are still pushing to have the Constitutional Court ban the party outright. Banning the party a quarter of your voters support is certainly one way to win an argument. In my old business, we called a spy agency monitoring the main opposition party something else.
- Brussels’ checkbook. The European Commission froze about €137 billion for Poland under PiS. On February 29, 2024, eleven weeks after Tusk took office, it released the money. One of its own officials conceded, “That does not mean the rule of law is fully restored and everything is fine,” and the reform plan was “still a draft ambition.” The rule of law, it turns out, is measured by who sits in the prime minister’s office. Hungary got the same treatment. Its new prime minister, Péter Magyar, promised to go to Brussels “to have EU funding released.” Message received in Budapest.
Put the cases side by side and the illness has a clear set of symptoms. Courts annul or narrow the choices on the ballot. Intelligence services rate which parties are fit to compete. Brussels pays for good behavior, defined as the right government. All of it is done in the name of protecting democracy from the people who vote in it.
That is why the Kuisz and Wigura essay matters beyond Poland. It isn’t a Polish policy paper. It is a clinical protocol for treating a voter who votes wrong, written for a continent whose elites have concluded the electorate can’t be trusted with the keys. Tusk is just the first surgeon to try it without anesthesia.
What this means for NATO
An alliance is only as strong as the governments that have to say yes. Right now several of NATO’s key European members are too busy fighting their own voters, courts and presidents to launch any foreign venture. In some cases they couldn’t if they tried.
Start with Poland, the country Washington holds up as NATO’s model member and the frontline state on Belarus and Ukraine. Under Poland’s constitution the president is the supreme commander of the armed forces. Poland’s president and its prime minister are currently accusing each other of a coup. Ask yourself who gives the order to deploy in that situation. Then ask whether a Polish soldier knows whose order to follow. A country with two constitutional courts and a commander-in-chief shoving past judges at 1 a.m. is not preparing to project power. It is trying to hold itself together.
The rest of the ward is no healthier:
- Germany is debating whether to ban the opposition party that a quarter of its voters support, and that party wants nothing to do with a war against Russia. Any German government that sends troops east hands the AfD its next election.
- France faces a 2027 presidential race in which Le Pen, whose party has long been skeptical of NATO’s integrated command, is back on the ballot. No French president facing that race will gamble on a foreign adventure.
- Romania, home of NATO’s base at Mihail Kogălniceanu on the Black Sea, is still governed under the shadow of an election its own court canceled. Its political class has a legitimacy problem it cannot afford to aggravate with a war.
NATO runs on consensus. Every one of these governments is now weighing a foreign deployment against a domestic electorate it has spent years managing rather than persuading. When the elite’s grip at home depends on courts, intelligence services and Brussels’ money, asking voters to send their sons east is the one request it can’t risk. Sooner or later, the bill for treating the voter as the enemy comes due.
The irony is hard to miss. The project was sold as protecting democracy from the barbarians at the gate. What it has produced is an alliance whose members cannot agree with their own voters, let alone with each other. Moscow didn’t have to lift a finger. Europe’s “defenders of democracy” are doing the job for it.
The Globalists refuse to go away
Strip away the vocabulary of “rule of law” and “transitional justice” and you find a project aimed at Polish nationalism itself. PiS’s real offense was not packing a court. Plenty of governments pack courts. Its offense was putting Polish sovereignty, Catholic identity and the nation-state ahead of Brussels.
The record is consistent. Poland refused the EU’s 2015 migrant relocation quotas, and in April 2020 the European Court of Justice ruled that Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic had broken EU law by refusing. That July, the Commission denied twinning grants to six Polish towns over their “LGBT ideology-free” resolutions. Then came the €137 billion freeze. The message from Brussels never varied: national identity is welcome as folklore, not as policy.
To the globalist wing of the Western establishment, meaning NED, Brussels and the foundations and think tanks that orbit them, nationalism is a disease to be treated, not a view to be debated. A nation that insists on deciding what it believes, whom it admits and how it runs its own courts is “illiberal” by definition. Kuisz and Wigura simply gave that attitude a legal procedure.
Now look east, because the same people take the same attitude toward Russia, with fewer manners. NED has funded Russian civil-society groups for decades, which is why Moscow made it the first “undesirable organization” under its 2015 law. In June 2022, the U.S. Helsinki Commission held a briefing titled “Decolonizing Russia: A Moral and Strategic Imperative.” The title says the rest. Russian nationalism, like Polish nationalism, is treated not as a fact to be dealt with but as a pathology to be cured, by sanctions, regime change or, if the seminar circuit gets its way, partition.
Here is the irony I find most delicious. Washington and Brussels spent years cheering Polish nationalism when it was pointed at Moscow. Poland’s hostility to Russia was the alliance’s favorite asset. Point the same nationalism at Brussels and it suddenly becomes a threat to democracy requiring riot police. Polish patriotism, it turns out, is a weapon to be aimed, not a conviction to be respected. Poles should notice that the people eager to dismantle Russia’s sense of nationhood are the same people dismantling theirs.
That is my assessment, not the article’s. Kuisz and Wigura frame everything as restoring the rule of law, and insist that the PiS started this. Its 2015 Tribunal appointments were a power grab, and in its 2021 Xero Flor ruling the European Court of Human Rights found that a bench including an improperly appointed judge violated the right to a fair trial.
Nawrocki’s refusal to swear in the new judges is hardball too. Both camps have real legal arguments. That is exactly why riot police at midnight are the wrong way to settle it.
Even if you set motive aside entirely, judge the project by its adverse effects: a country with two rival constitutional courts and a president shoving past judges in the dark.
On NATO, a caveat. Domestic turmoil makes an offensive or expeditionary venture far less likely, but it does not mean these countries would refuse to defend their own territory. Both camps in Warsaw back heavy defense spending, and a direct attack on a member tends to unite even the most divided parliament. My argument is about appetite for adventure, not the willingness to fight at the border.
None of these caveats changes the central point. The fight in Warsaw isn’t really about judges. It is about whether a European nation may still define itself, or whether that right now belongs to Brussels, NED and the people who write manuals on dismantling democracies. Moscow got that answer years ago. Warsaw is getting it now.
EUROPE
Europe’s Riots Are The Bill Coming Due For Socialism And Globalism
Saturday, Oct 31, 2026 – 10:15 AM
Authored by Fred Fleitz via American Greatness,
I recently spoke at Chatham House in London, one of Europe’s leading globalist think tanks – and hostile territory for American conservatives. While there, I heard firsthand some of the factors and the stark denialism behind the horrific riots that erupted in France and other European countries this month.
What began in late September as student blockades of overcrowded, understaffed high schools in the Paris suburbs exploded on October 17 and 18 into some of the worst violence France has seen in decades. More than half a million people marched against rising living costs and failing public services. Rioters, many carrying Palestinian flags, torched cars and a town hall, damaged or looted at least 3,000 businesses, and injured about 1,000 police officers, gendarmes and firefighters, according to the interior ministry. Nearly 2,400 people were arrested, and the government imposed curfews in parts of Paris and other cities. Similar protests spread to Belgium and Italy.
Amid a steady stream of bashing on foreign policy, domestic security, and the president personally, a U.S. academic on one Chatham panel stunned me with her counter-reality view of President Trump’s border policies.
On border security, she claimed that the real goal of last year’s U.S. National Security Strategy and President Trump’s efforts to stop illegal immigration is to promote Christian white nationalism. I replied that this is false: President Trump has never called for any such thing, and it is nowhere in the National Security Strategy. When she insisted that this is what the document “really” means, I pointed out that she had just conceded it does not say this – she was reading her own views into it. I also noted that the Trump administration is fully supportive of immigration as long as immigrants come to our country legally. She countered that talk by Trump officials of saving Western civilization from uncontrolled immigration amounts to a plan for a white Christian nation. It does not. The strategy warns that Europe faces “civilizational erasure” – a warning about uncontrolled migration and falling birth rates, not race. My final response was that this was a typical liberal distortion: equating conservative efforts to secure borders and protect our nation with racism.
I should add that the audience offered no pushback to the academic’s comments but plenty to mine. Video of the panel is available here.
A panelist made an equally absurd claim at a second closed Chatham House panel, held under the Chatham House Rule, asserting that Europe is far freer and offers a much higher quality of life than America, with far more opportunities for young people. I was dumbfounded, even more so because no one in the room pushed back. These claims are clearly contradicted by America’s lower taxes, greater economic opportunities, easier path to starting businesses, lower unemployment, and numerous other well-documented advantages. As for freedom, it is Europe, not America, where citizens are arrested and prosecuted for social media posts. The panelist later explained that Europe is better because of all the “free stuff” – free health care, free college, generous social benefits, government pensions, and so on.
This explanation wasn’t very convincing. These claims in fact reflect the global elite’s view of Europe as a paradise and of Trump’s America as a primitive backwater. The reality is that nothing is free. Europeans pay for these benefits through some of the highest taxes in the developed world, and governments that cannot cover the bill borrow the rest. France’s public debt now exceeds 110 percent of GDP, and its borrowing costs have hit their highest level in more than two decades. The recent disastrous and violent demonstrations in France and other European nations made clear that Europe is neither superior to America nor a paradise for most young Europeans.
The core reason is that Europe’s massively expensive socialist welfare state does not work. The French riots began in high schools so overcrowded and understaffed that students blockaded them in protest. A state that spends lavishly on pensions and benefits cannot even keep its classrooms staffed. Meanwhile, European economies and security are under siege from a huge influx of migrants from the Middle East and Africa, which has imposed enormous costs in government benefits while contributing to surges in crime and radical Islam.
The denialism I heard in London is everywhere. Consider a recent New York Times opinion writer who drew the implausible conclusion that the French riots were part of a student revolution to build a better France. Or the BBC calling the Paris riots “mostly peaceful.” Or a panelist on MS NOW who made the absurd claim that although we don’t know who is behind the riots or their motivations, we know Trump is responsible.
What these elites refuse to admit is that Europe is in deep trouble because socialist and globalist policies are destroying European civilization – and that radical change is needed to save it.
Fred Fleitz is vice chair of the America First Policy Institute Center for American Security. He previously served as chief of staff of the Trump National Security Council.
END
GERMANY
‘We Fear These People’: Scandal Erupts After Berlin ‘Left Party’ Mayoral Candidate Admits Concerns Over Islamists
Saturday, Oct 31, 2026 – 07:00 AM
Authored by Remix News Staff via Remix News,
Berlin’s Left Party lead candidate for governing mayor, Elif Eralp, privately expressed fear of Hamas-linked figures tied to her party’s orbit in internal notes accidentally returned to Der Spiegel, raising sharp questions about her ability to lead the capital’s security structure.
The notes, part of an authorized interview draft sent back with visible internal comments this week, show Eralp writing that she and her husband have “fear of these people.”
She asked her team to strike a question and her own answer about the activist Ibrahim Ibrahim, explaining: “I cannot put myself and my family in danger for Der Spiegel. What do we do now? Can we cancel the whole interview?” She added that she “should never have agreed to this interview.”
Eralp cited past advice from Berlin’s State Criminal Police Office (LKA) not to name specific individuals, noting that earlier guidance concerned organized crime and “now it’s about people with contacts to Hamas.”
Ibrahim, a longtime activist linked to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) – a group designated as a terrorist organization by the EU and United States – appeared at the Left Party’s election victory party in Berlin-Neukölln after the Sept. 20 state election.
He has been described as praising Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar as a “martyr hero” and has roles in the United Palestinian National Committee, which Berlin’s domestic intelligence service has classified as extremist for supporting Hamas. Parts of the Left Party’s Neukölln base and some politicians have maintained contacts with this milieu; Ibrahim later traveled to Turkey for a gathering involving Hamas-linked figures.
The Left Party emerged as the strongest force with 25.7 percent of the vote in the latest Berlin election. Eralp has sought a coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens. Her office has said she faces daily threats and insults, and security authorities advised against naming specific individuals in certain contexts.
Opposition parties seized on the disclosure. Kristin Brinker, chair of the AfD’s Berlin parliamentary group and the party’s lead candidate, said: “That Elif Eralp, albeit involuntarily, admits her fear of the criminal clans throws a glaring light on the state of internal security in our city. If even a top politician no longer feels safe, what are ordinary Berliners supposed to say, who in an emergency have no personal protection standing by?”
She added that the notes from Erlap illuminate the party’s condition, linking it to clan connections beyond known cases involving a Bundestag member and “rampant antisemitism.” Brinker concluded that the Left is “far from any governing capability.” Brinker urged the Greens and SPD to end talks immediately with the Left to form a ruling government in Berlin.
“This party and this woman must under no circumstances be entrusted with our city,” warned Brinker.
At a press appearance Thursday, Eralp declined to address the Spiegel notes directly, calling them private and internal. She stated she would not be intimidated and pledged to ensure both social and individual security for all Berliners, declaring she would act “with all means against organized crime, against terror, against everything,” including those who glorify violence.
In an interview with German newspaper Junge Freiheit, deputy chairman of the AfD parliamentary group, Sebastian Münzenmaier, said: “The revolution is devouring its children. For years, the left has defamed criticism of clan crime, mass migration, and Islamic glorification of terror as racist. Now, she is suddenly afraid of the ghosts she summoned.”
CDU Berlin leader Stefan Evers asked: “How is Elif Eralp supposed to ensure the security of millions of people as governing mayor if she herself is afraid of the Islamist environment of her party?” He said the revelations heighten concern about a Left-led government and urged “the reasonable ones among the Greens and SPD” to “finally pull the emergency brake,” warning that fear of Islamists must not influence political decisions.
Referring to clans and organized crime, outgoing Governing Mayor Kai Wegner (CDU) stated that a government “must never make its actions dependent on these structures – certainly it must not fear them.”
SPD figures also responded critically. Neukölln district mayor Martin Hikel said the episode shows “how strongly these terror-glorifying, antisemitic forces are anchored in the Left and want to come to power with the help of the Left.” SPD lead candidate Steffen Krach described the situation as shocking and stated there must be no Hamas sympathizers free to move in the city.
END
GERMANY
AWFUL!!
After 10 Youths Beat German Teen, Mayor’s Calls For More ‘Civic Courage’ Widely Mocked As Example Of ‘State Failure’
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Remix News Staff via Remix News,
The mayor of the German city of Frankfurt (Oder), Axel Strasser, has called on residents to demonstrate greater civic courage after bystanders did nothing as a group of teenagers repeatedly punched and kicked a 14-year-old student, including to the head, while he lay on the ground outside a high school earlier this month. Now, critics are calling his statement a recognition of the failure of state authority.
After a security conference with police, prosecutors, schools, youth welfare, and immigration authorities, Strasser, an independent, said it was unacceptable that people stood by without intervening. “We truly appeal to this urban society to show civic courage,” he said.
The attack occurred on Oct. 14 outside the Heinrich-von-Kleist High School. Video of the assault, which circulated widely on social media, showed roughly 10 teenagers surrounding the victim, striking him and continuing the assault after he fell.
The German government implemented a policy of mass migration, which has resulted in mob beatings and bullying of German students across the country. Now, government officials are calling on citizens to put their lives on the line and intervene in these mob beatings, including in this latest case in Frankfurt (Oder).
A commentary published by Lennart Zielke in Ostdeutsche Allgemeine, titled “Youth Violence in Brandenburg: The State Gives Up – The Citizen Is Supposed to Put Himself in Mortal Danger,” calls the appeal an admission of state failure. The piece argues that urging ordinary bystanders to intervene shifts the risk onto unarmed civilians who lack training, protection, or backup in confrontations with groups of attackers.
“You just have to imagine the scene in concrete terms. A group of violent youths, the perpetrators outnumbered the witnesses, the situation is confusing, and there are possibly knives or firearms involved. And now the average citizen is supposed to intervene – without training, without protection, without support. Anyone who intervenes is highly likely to end up in the hospital,” wrote Zielke.
Individuals on social media also highlighted the absurdity of asking the general public to step in to perform law enforcement actions.
“Since politics is failing – or, better said, has no desire to change anything – Mayor Strasser from Frankfurt/Oder is calling for more civic courage to be expected. He can go ahead and stand up to a horde of 20 migrants if he feels like it. I won’t!” wrote one user.
Remix News broadly covered the beating video, including police statements threatening prosecution for publishing the video.
Authorities are investigating nine suspects, ages 13 to 15, who hold Polish, Russian, Syrian, and German nationality. They face allegations of dangerous bodily harm; earlier reports also referenced robbery. Police have spoken with the suspects and their families.
Strasser described the incident as “the first case of this dimension” in the city and said everyone immediately recognized the drama of the situation. Unlike recent group attacks in Potsdam that involved more entrenched youth structures, this case does not, according to officials.
The city and police plan heightened presence near schools after the autumn holidays, parent conferences, and anti-bullying efforts. An investigative team is active. The victim is receiving intensive support through the school and relevant authorities; youth welfare is examining further measures. “Offers of help are available and will be accepted,” Strasser said.
Residence-law options are under review, but Strasser said he sees little prospect of success. He added that there will be no simple solutions to rising youth violence in Germany or the influence of social media.
Brandenburg Integration Minister René Wilke (SPD) is pressing for accelerated reviews of protection status for Syrian suspects. He said 16 cases linked to violence incidents in Potsdam and Frankfurt (Oder) – including five minors in the latter – have been reported to the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees so their status can be checked more quickly. “We have asked that the examination be brought forward,” Wilke said. Revocation of protected status can lead to deportation but does not automatically do so; each case requires individual assessment that can take months.
“If a child is out of control and the family shows no integration efforts, it can become tight,” he noted.
Interior Minister Jan Redmann (CDU) has spoken of influence from the “gangster-rapper milieu” and people who boast about their acts online. Redmann has also pointed to integration shortfalls in some cases and said authorities will use available tools of criminal and residence law, while stressing rapid action to stop the violence.
The attack prompted an AfD demonstration that drew up to a thousand people. The party pointed to migrant violence and called for deportations, including the families of perpetrators.
Strasser has said the city will not simply return to business as usual. He has also emphasized that protection granted in Germany is not deserved by those who abuse it so brutally, while stressing coordinated action by security authorities regardless of the origin of the suspect.
As Remix News has reported in the past, 40 percent of all violent crime suspects in German schools are foreigners.
END
GERMANY/NATURAL GAS:
they have a limited buffer:
“Serious Warning”: Germany Misses November NatGas Storage Levels As Cold Snap Looms
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 02:45 AM
Germany faces an imminent cold snap with natural gas inventories well below their 15-year seasonal average, leaving Europe’s largest economy with a limited buffer against back-to-back cold blasts. Prolonged cold would accelerate storage withdrawals and increase dependence on costly replacement LNG supplies from international markets.
European NatGas prices are trading north of 100 euros per megawatt-hour.
Germany’s gas storage was about 61.2% full on Saturday, short of the 70% average it was supposed to reach by Sunday, according to AGSI figures reported by the German news agency DPA. The miss comes as Europe heads into an early cold spell. As we reported, European gas crossed the 100-euro “psychological mark” on Oct. 28 on winter supply fears.
The target is a blend of two rules. The Federal Network Agency’s storage page sets 80% as the November 1 level for every site, and 45% for six named ones: Bad Lauchstädt, Frankenthal, Hähnlein, Rehden, Stockstadt and Uelsen. The agency’s overall requirement works out to 70%, according to the energy site Clean Thinking.
The government says the shortfall is not a problem. An Economy Ministry spokeswoman told DPA that “Germany’s gas supply is secure for the coming winter, even with the current storage levels.” The Federal Network Agency said “Security of supply is guaranteed” and that it “continues to consider the risk of stressed gas supply to be low.”
The storage industry is less relaxed. Sebastian Heinermann, managing director of the storage association INES, called the missed target a “serious warning.”
“Germany is entering the heating season with smaller safety reserves,” he said, and warned of vulnerability “in the event of exceptionally low temperatures.”
Germany’s 15-year average for this time of year stands at around 91%.
Last week, the EU’s benchmark TTF NatGas closed at 104 euros per megawatt-hour for the first time since the 2022 energy crisis.
Just weeks ago, Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed that EU NatGas inventories declined for the first time this year. This is troubling because the EU as a whole has limited buffers ahead of winter.
We noted earlier on Sunday that Europe has to seriously rethink its energy dependence, as it must fight Asian traders for LNG cargoes on the open market. With the Strait of Hormuz still a mess, prices could keep rising.
European NatGas trades at roughly 11 times the US price.
Looking ahead, meteorologists are tracking an unprecedented sudden stratospheric warming event that could weaken the polar vortex. See the latest report on the event.
END
HOLLAND/OPERA HOUSE
ROBERT H…
Forbidden Leaks on X: “BREAKING: Massive riots have started in The Hague in the Netherlands. A large mob of Eritrean migrants has broken into the Opera House building and are throwing bricks and rocks at police officers. Several police cars have been set on fire…” / X
There is a price for immigration that Europe is just at the beginning of seeing. It will worsen
EUROPE
The Jungle Devours Europe
SHURK…
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 05:00 AM
Authored by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker,
The European Union has over four-hundred-fifty million people. The non-E.U. nations of Europe – including the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Norway, Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Moldova, and Albania but excluding Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and Turkey – have another hundred million people. Combined, Europe has over two hundred million more people than the United States and over four hundred million more people than the Russian Federation. As an “associate member” of the E.U., Canada would give Europe another forty million bodies.
There is no reason why Europe should struggle to defend itself with this kind of population advantage. In fact, it is downright embarrassing that it depends on Americans from the other side of the ocean to secure its borders when the United States (with its significantly smaller population) has military obligations throughout the world. It has been eighty years since the Second World War, and somehow the European Establishment still hasn’t figured out how to survive without American money and muscle.
Professors and pundits toss out all kinds of reasons why this is the case: The Europeans were saddled with debt and destruction after two continental wars within thirty years and had to rebuild much of their infrastructure and manufacturing capacity. As the Soviet Union and the U.S.-led allies carved up post-war Europe, the Cold War froze the continent in a state of transition for the next half-century. U.S. political leaders embraced America’s transformation into a global empire with global responsibilities. Peace in post-WWII Europe seemed fragile, and parts of Europe appeared broken; two generations had been lost to war and depression, and a sense of nihilism extinguished much of the early-twentieth-century exuberance that pervaded the continent before the First World War.
All of this is true. Still, there is no excuse for the continent to be struggling with the responsibilities of political sovereignty four generations after the defeat of Nazi Germany.
Josep Borrell, the E.U.’s former high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, said in a speech four years ago, “Europe is a garden. We have built a garden.” After a heavy pause, he then observed, “The rest of the world…is not exactly a garden. Most of the rest of the world is a jungle. The jungle could invade the garden. The gardeners should take care of it.”
Political leaders from around the world took umbrage at Borrell’s condescending view of non-European nations and saw in his garden/jungle demarcation the residual bigotry of European colonialism.
Aside from his rather tone-deaf description of Europe, though, Borrell’s view of the continent seems anachronistic. European greatness hasn’t existed for more than a century. Most of the noble houses have fallen, while most of the extant aristocrats live in obscurity.
Europe does not create new things; it steals (and taxes) America’s innovation and ingenuity. Europe does not build things; it depends on China for industrial output and manufacturing. Europe does not produce enough energy; even while declaring Russia its enemy, much of Europe depends upon Russian oil and gas to survive. Europe does not mine anything; it depends upon child slaves in Africa to do its heavy lifting. Europe does not have babies; it depends upon mass immigration for population replacement. Europe does not generate real economic growth; it depends upon central bank magic tricks, investment bank commissions, and government spending to conjure the illusion of a functioning economy. Finally, Europe does not defend itself; it depends upon NATO, which is to say that it depends upon the United States of America to protect its half a billion people from real and imagined enemies.
If Europe is a “garden,” it is because the rest of the planet allows it to exist as one. It would have no vegetation if the “jungle” did not supply it with imports; it would have no “gardeners” if America did not secure Europe’s lands and keep trespassers out.
The United States is the only reason that Europe is not part of the “jungle” today. Americans have subsidized Europe’s economy for eighty years by allowing Europe to enjoy the advantages of one-way tariffs against U.S. manufacturers and the security umbrella of America’s military might. Europe survives because of the kindness of strangers living in towns across America.
This one-sided relationship cannot continue as it has for most of the last century. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and her Eurocentric friends in Brussels, Berlin, London, and Paris believe that their “garden” should remain the focus of the world. They believe that their “climate change” fanaticism should drive economic regulation around the globe. They believe that their International Criminal Court should be the planet’s chief arbiter of “justice.” They believe that their multicultural, cosmopolitan, Marxist-socialist brand of globalism should become a kind of secular religion for all nations. In essence, Europe wants to force the “jungle” to play by its rules.
But this is not how the “law of the jungle” operates.
The lions, elephants, hippos, and hyenas don’t have any use for Brussels bureaucracy. They see no need to bow down to unelected Queen Ursula or to respect her “European values.” They do not cripple their food supplies out of misplaced devotion to “global warming” gods. They do not outlaw oil and gas exploration, bankrupt refineries, or shutter nuclear power plants while depending upon adversaries and enemies to keep the lights on and the heat flowing. They do not outsource their security to jungle predators with the misguided expectation of not becoming prey.
The jungle doesn’t stop at the garden’s entrance just because the old empires from the last millennium like to pretend that they still matter.
In the capitals of Europe, incompetent gardeners continue to insist that everything will be fine just as soon as they can expel disruptive forces such as Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump. So long as they can censor social media platforms, Europe’s gardeners will be able to disseminate the “proper narratives” to the masses. So long as they can force “green energy” regulations on China, India, Russia, and the United States, Europe’s gardeners will be able to regulate markets and limit the jungle’s economic growth. So long as they can replace their own people with foreign immigrants, Europe’s gardeners will be able to sufficiently “divide and conquer” their own populations.
But you cannot invite the jungle into the garden and expect the garden to survive. The jungle grows fast, and the garden requires too much attention. Without the means to beat back the jungle, the garden is eventually overrun.
This is Europe’s last chance at survival. If it does not put down its ideological obsessions and pick up the tools needed for real economic growth, Europe will be impoverished. If it does not relinquish its love for bureaucratic regulation and free its workers so that they may prosper, Europe will become irrelevant. If it does not give up its “rules-based” delusions and build walls for its own defense, Europe will be devoured.
The jungle does not care that old cathedrals, monuments, and palaces exist all over Europe. The jungle does not care about Europe’s past glories. Europe is just another place for the jungle to conquer next.
Half a billion people should have a say about Europe’s future. They should not have to follow Queen Ursula, Chancellor Merz, President Macron, Prime Minister Burnham, or Prime Minister Carney down the path toward extinction. They should not have to watch their economies implode while the gardeners promise them nothing but “climate change” austerity and nuclear war with Russia. The people of Europe should not have to behave as statues for the gardeners while everything around them is destroyed.
For eighty years, Europe’s leaders have failed to bring peace and prosperity to the continent. For the garden to live, the gardeners must go.
We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.
5.RUSSIA AND ISRAEL AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFIARS
ISRAEL/IRAN/USA /SATURDAY
Iran Issues Nov 1st Blanket Ban On South Korean Tanker Giant Moving One-Third Of Persian Gulf Oil Exports
Saturday, Oct 31, 2026 – 05:00 PM
South Korean tanker giant Sinokor is the world’s dominant VLCC owner (Very Large Crude Carrier) and has in recent weeks found itself front and center in the crosshairs of Iranian retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz and regional waters.
This past week, Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) has put the major South Korean maritime shipping and logistics group on notice, saying Sinokor will suffer sweeping action against its fleet starting November 1st if it keeps violating Tehran’s protocol for shipping through the strait.
This has marked the first time the Islamic Republic issued a blanket warning covering a shipowner’s entire fleet, but this is perhaps because Sinokor alone accounted for about 37% of Hormuz oil transits in September and more than 50% of VLCC traffic in the first 10 days of October, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data.
Despite regional passage being fraught with obvious ultra high risks, Sinokor has risen to dominance in the Gulf’s shipping market, moving to capitalize on extraordinary freight rates.
However, this has come at a steep physical cost, with at least seven Sinokor-linked tankers having been attacked and struck by Iranian missiles or drones recently and during the conflict.
New VLCC’s contracted from shipyards can run from $125 million to $135 million to build – but a prompt delivery resale can run much, much highter – especially now.
Also, war risk insurance has been exploding in price. One industry watcher has put together a brief primer:
- Standard hull and machinery insurance excludes war risks, so owners buy separate hull war cover and pay an additional premium (AP) each time a ship enters a Joint War Committee listed area.
- Before the war that began on February 28, 2026, Hormuz war-risk cover typically cost 0.15% to 0.25% of hull value; brokers quoted 6% to 10% in early October 2026, according to the Financial Times.
- On a $100 million tanker, that swing turns a roughly $250,000 premium into $6 million to $10 million for one transit, before cargo cover, which is bought separately.
- Quoted rates are not an official index: they vary by ship, flag, ownership links, route and date, and underwriters can reprice or withdraw cover at short notice.
WarBrief Live has provided the following brief timeline and outline of soaring rates:
- Pre-war rate: 0.15% to 0.25% of hull value (Lloyd’s List, March 11, 2026)
- Early October 2026 quote: 6% to 10% of hull value per voyage (brokers via the Financial Times, reported October 7)
- Worked example: $100 million tanker: about $250,000 before the war, $6 million to $10 million at early-October quotes
- Trigger: entry into a Joint War Committee listed area, usually priced for a seven-day period
Days ago, Bloomberg highlighted the outsized role this single South Korean company has played in shipping contract pricing amid the global energy crisis:
The messages from the world’s biggest supertanker owner often begin with pleasantries: “Dear Ladies and Gentlemen.” Within minutes, the WhatsApps are the talk of the oil-tanker industry, a multibillion-dollar corner of the energy market that’s been plunged into chaos by the Iran war this year, and where word of mouth is the main way information spreads. The details vary, but the messages to shipbrokers from Sinokor Group, the South Korean company controlled by tycoon Ga-Hyun Chung, mostly boil down to the same thing — one of its vessels has just been hired at a new sky-high rate to ferry oil out of the Persian Gulf.
Some messages detail a new contract, listing the ship, counterparty and eyewatering price. Others just refer loosely to negotiations underway. The format fluctuates from terse strings of numbers and names to full sentences and florid signoffs: “Very respectfully. Thank you very much and best regards,” concludes one message sent to brokers in August, and seen by Bloomberg. Usually, in the days that follow, the global benchmark price set by London’s Baltic Exchange takes another leap higher.
What would simply be fodder for gossip in most industries, brokers say that Sinokor’s WhatsApp messages have for months played an outsized role in setting the cost of transporting oil around the world. Rates for very-large crude carriers (VLCC) — the biggest kind of oil tanker — have soared more than 1,600% this year amid disruptions caused by the war, creating an unprecedented boom for the industry, but throwing a spotlight on the arcane system used to price the world’s shipping contracts, and the centuries-old institution that manages it.
As for the threat against the company coming from Iran, it remains to be seen what unspecified “legal action” will be taken going forward or in what form, or how to interprete “appropriate enforcement measures” – which has so far involved full-on military attacks.
The statement PGSA released on October 27 said Sinokor vessels “have committed the highest number of crossing violations over the past 3 months” and that “appropriate enforcement actions have been taken against at least 7 of them.”
END
Iran Conducts First Limpet Mine Attack On Tanker Since 2019
Saturday, Oct 31, 2026 – 11:45 AM
The prior 24 hours – stretching from Friday back into Thursday – had seen Iran announced no less than four recent attacks on international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, mostly through alleged sea mines.
The fourth claimed attack is the one raising eyebrows and getting most attention, given a tanker was reporteldy disabled by limpet naval mines. This method has not been used by the Iranians in the seven-month long war until now.
If accurate, it would be hugely signficant – given a new tactic in Iran’s arsenal since the start of Operation Epic Fury – as the last reported limpet mine attack in regional waters was in 2019.
“A UAE-owned crude oil tanker was damaged by limpet naval mines late on Thursday night, a UK-based maritime monitoring agency reported, suggesting a potential shift in tactics by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as it struggles to inhibit shipping in the Strait of Hormuz,” regional news source Al-Monitor writes.
“The M/T Louise-1 was disabled while transiting the Strait of Hormuz after two limpet mines that had been attached to its hull above the waterline by attackers aboard a small boat detonated, causing a fire in its engine room after 10 p.m. local time, the UK Maritime Trade Organization (UKMTO) monitoring agency said. The Louise’s crew was unharmed, the agency reported,” it adds.
So far the main attack methods have included drones and sea mines. But this limpet mine attack would have involved a small fastboat going right up to the hull of the tanker.
These are typically relatively small magnetic explosives that must be affixed to a ship by hand. The incident further suggests that even if all of Iran’s coastal weapons sites are taken out by US strikes, the Iranians can strike so long as IRGC fastboats remain active.
Meanwhile, there are ongoing signs of a Trump-ordered US military build-up in the Middle East. The White House has been signaling potential renewed major combat against Iran after the midterm elections, which are just days away. Could we witness bombs away again by the close of next week?
Israel’s Channel 14’s English-language account on X on Friday reported that over the prior 48 hours an “unprecedented US military airlift has swept across the Middle East.”
At least ten heavy transport aircraft arrived in Israel “alongside roughly 80 aerial refueling tankers.” Additionally some military assets are said to be withdrawn from Gulf ‘frontline’ areas in anticipation of likely Iranian retaliation in the event of a US attack on the Islamic Republic.
END
Rare Iranian Strike On Vessel Hundreds Of Miles From Strait Of Hormuz
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 08:25 AM
Sunday saw another vessel attacked in Persian Gulf regional waters. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency (UKMTO) reported that a ship was struck by two projectiles some 83 miles east of Ras al-Khafji, which is the Saudi town on the Kuwaiti border in the northern Persian Gulf.
Signficiantly and unusually, this particularl attack occurred hundreds of miles from the Strait of Hormuz itself. Also, in this instance the vessel targeted was not a large tanker, but instead was a tug boat.
“On Sunday evening, an Emirati-owned offshore tug was hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, somewhere northwest of the Musandam Peninsula,” The Maritime Executive reports. “Security consultancy Vanguard Tech has identified the vessel as the UAE-owned Selat Storm, an older offshore tug/supply ship of about 1,300 dwt.”
The boat was soon after the attack observed to be “partially sinking” – the same maritime monitor report indicates. There’s speculation that stepped-up Iranian attacks on shipping in the Hormuz Strait of the last several weeks has required an increase in the number of emergency tug operations, leading to these being targeted:
The status of the vessel’s crew was not reported. It was the second likely Iranian attack on a tug in the Strait of Hormuz since October 18, when a projectile hit the Dutch-flagged tug JIF Barracuda – illustrating the hazards of the narrow waterway for vessels of all classes.
The two tugs’ activities at the time of the strikes have not been reported, but the high count of disabled and damaged tankers in the strait implies an abundant need for salvage towing.
There had been a prior ship attack earlier Sunday, also after last Thursday the Iranians claimed four tankers hit mines while trying to make ‘illegal’ passage of the Strait of Hormuz.
President Trump is threatening renewed attacks on Iran; however, there are indicators that suggest he’s ready to given diplomacy a further chance.
He told supporters in Iowa on Sunday, “The only reason why I’m not finished with Iran is I want to be nice. I want to try and save all those lives if I can.” But then he added: “at some point we’re going to have to give them the hammer.”
Tehran for its part is signaling it is ready to to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the United States meets its conditions. But these conditions include asks that Trump is unlikely to bend to – such as war reparations and the removal of all forces from locations near the Islamic Republic.
Days ago, the IRGC pulled off its first known limpet mine attack on a tanker since 2019:
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said in a fresh statement, “The possibility of implementing this plan in two days is another indication of Iran’s good-faith approach.”
“If Iran’s demands are met, it would be possible to restore security to the Strait of Hormuz and resume the negotiating process within a short period,” he added, confirming indirect message exchanges with Washingotn have persisted.
END
Trump Says ‘No Rush’ On Renewing Iran War, Oil Prices ‘Dropping Like A Rock’
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 03:50 PM
Summary
- Trump Delays Iran Decision: Trump says he is in no rush to resume strikes, favoring more time for diplomacy despite Netanyahu’s reported push for renewed military action.
- Ayatollah Signals Openness to Talks: Supreme Leader authorizes dialogue with Washington as Qatari mediation reportedly makes progress toward a draft agreement.
- Faster Hormuz Reopening on the Table: Iran says it could reopen the Strait within two days if Washington accepts its demands, including lifting the US blockade.
- Oil Prices Tumble: Hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough send Brent toward $106 and WTI below $100, triggering a broader risk-on market rally.
- Supply Risks Persist: Nearly 1 billion barrels have reportedly been drained from global inventories, leaving oil and diesel markets vulnerable to renewed escalation.
Trump Says ‘No Rush’ on Renewing Iran War
On midterm election eve, President Trump is seeking to appear confident and is trying to reassure voters. He told Axios in a phone interview published Monday afternoon that he’s “in no rush” to decide whether to resume attacks on Iran.
There’s lately been an avalanche of speculation saying that he’s likely to order a new bombing campaign soon after the midterm vote on Tuesday. There are also reports saying that Israel’s Netanyhu is strongly lobbying for renewing the war. Of course, Trump knows the war is deeply unpopular with the average voter (on both sides of the aisle) right now, and so the obvious attempts at ‘calming’ the populace…
Trump told Axios that “it’s coming together nicely, that’s why oil is down” – in reference to indirect negotiations being mediated by Qatar. 
He also indicated that Iran asked to stop killing its leaders, to which he responded, “we will” – in his accounting of recent messaging.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Floats More US Talks In Rare Overture
Oil is tumbling in the wake of a somewhat rare headline out of Tehran:
- Iranian President Pezeshkian says the Supreme Leader has granted the government some authority on dialogue, ISNA reports
- OIL FALLS TO INTRADAY LOW, BRENT TRADES NEAR $106/BBL
- Oil prices down 6% on hopes of US-Iran diplomacy
This marks some of the most significant confirmation yet that the Supreme Leader – who has been in hiding and not seen in public since the assassination of his father upon the opening of Operation Epic Fury – is still ‘open’ to a negotiated solution to the war. It has long been speculated that he and the more ‘hardline’ IRGC and affiliated officials are against talks and are preparing for war.
Meanwhile, more Monday reporting of ‘breakthroughs’ via regional sources – and the possibility that Washington might give up on isisting the nuclear enrichment issue be resolved…
A breakthrough in US-Iranian negotiations was seen after Qatari mediation successfully overcame procedural obstacles, reports Al Jadeed citing a diplomatic source
- The US is leaning towards not making the nuclear issue a priority and instead including it within the overall negotiation framework.
- Washington’s priority is achieving a breakthrough in the nuclear file, which Trump would present to the American people, in exchange for concessions on other issues in favor of Iran.
- There are fears that Netanyahu will succeed in undermining the breakthroughs in the US-Iranian negotiations and pushing the region towards escalation and war.
- Any US-Iranian agreement will inevitably have repercussions for Lebanon, while any war on Tehran would be fateful and would push Hezbollah to enter it.
- Implementing any agreement on Lebanon requires Israel’s conditional approval, which is contingent upon Hezbollah’s disarmament and the dismantling of its military apparatus; otherwise, Israel will launch a war to achieve its objectives.
Presdient Trump too has signaled he wants to give diplomacy more time, amid reports that Israel’s Netanyahu is lobbying for more military action.
Newsquawk notes of the immediate reaction in markets: Risk-on trade seen as reports Iran’s Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader has granted the government some authority on dialogue got wider airing; downside in oil and the Dollar, with upside in US equity futures, Treasuries and spot gold.
Earlier in the morning a report in the NY Post included some of the details related to ongoing indirect dialogue:
- Earlier, sources said Iranian negotiators left the Doha talks on Sunday, but not due to difficulties in negotiations, with a draft proposal circulated for feedback and a follow-up meeting possible. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei also said the compression of Tehran’s seven-day proposal into two days is a sign of goodwill and that “America must make a decision”, which added modest pressure to the complex.
- It was also reported earlier today that Iran had reportedly conveyed seven conditions to Qatar for reaching an agreement with Washington, including lifting the US blockade of Iranian ports, according to Kyodo citing a senior Iranian official. Tehran is said to be willing to adopt a flexible position on nuclear issues if an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is reached, although significant differences remain as the US seeks simultaneous nuclear concessions.
Still, time is running out and Trump is threatening to “bring the hammer” on Iran; however, there’s still no articulated end game or what a ‘misson accomplished’ moment might look like, amid fears that Washington could be settling in for another ‘forever war’ – despite ‘assurances’ from admin officials like JD Vance.
Still no ‘direct’ talks on the horizon:
Crude Prices Tumble
Brent crude futures fell to $108.41 a barrel, while WTI slipped below $100 this morning, after Axios reported that President Trump favored giving diplomacy with Tehran more time before launching another round of “Epic Fury.” Separately, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the Trump administration accepts its demands.
“Oil prices eased on Monday, with Brent down 2.8% at about $110/bbl and WTI down 3.3% at $100.67/bbl, as hopes for diplomatic progress tempered the geopolitical premium embedded in crude following October’s rally. Iranian and Qatari officials have held three consecutive days of talks aimed at ending the conflict with the US and Israel,” UBS markets analyst Nana Antiedu wrote in a brief note earlier today.
Brent’s Friday gains have been erased ahead of the US session. There were other reports that Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu he wanted diplomacy with Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Saturday that no decision had been made on new attacks on Iran and that Trump preferred a diplomatic resolution.
Tehran: Shortened Timeline to Reopen Strait if Agreement Reached
Earlier today, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei was quoted by Bloomberg as saying that Tehran was ready to reopen the Hormuz maritime chokepoint in two days if the Trump administration was willing to agree to its conditions.
“The possibility of implementing this plan in two days is another indication of Iran’s good-faith approach,” Baqaei said, adding, “We have stated that, if Iran’s demands are met, it would be possible to restore security to the Strait of Hormuz and resume the negotiating process within a short period.”
The spokesman said that an exchange of messages was ongoing with US counterparts via mediators and that “everything depends” on the US side accepting the Iranian demands. “Only then can we discuss the subsequent stages.”
Despite the diplomatic signals, which can change at a moment’s notice, UBS’s Antiedu warned that global oil supply buffers are “wearing thin.”
Antiedu added more color:
The pullback comes against an increasingly fragile supply backdrop. ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber said nearly 1 billion barrels have been drained from global oil inventories since the conflict disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reports. Diesel inventories in some markets are at 35-year seasonal lows, while shipping and logistics costs have risen from roughly 5% to 30% of the cost of a barrel.
Separately, June Goh, a senior oil-market analyst at Sparta Commodities, said that diesel is the “most distressed” fuel product heading into the Northern Hemisphere winter. She noted that spare refining capacity is mostly concentrated in China, where authorities continue to control fuel exports.
Goldman Sachs analysts earlier raised their Brent forecast to $105 a barrel for December and an average of $88 next year. They noted, “The Mideast and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, alongside broader geopolitical fragmentation, create high disruption risk.“
ISRAEL..TBN
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Third Russian Refinery Attacked By Ukraine In 3 Days
Sunday, Nov 01, 2026 – 11:20 AM
The overnight hours into early Sunday morning hours saw yet a third Russian refinery attacked by long-range Ukrainian drones since Ukraine abandoned a short-lived halt on energy site attacks.
Russia’s Kstovo oil refinery is ablaze, becoming the third refinery hit in just three days. What’s known as the “Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez” oil refinery and the adjacent Novogorkovskaya combined heat and power plant in the city of Kstovo were impacted.
The complex is Russia’s fourth-largest refinery and its second-largest gasoline producer. Mulitple large fires reupted as a result of the strikes, across the industrial site.
“Residents in Kstovo began circulating footage of major blazes lighting up the skyline around 4:00 a.m. local time, reporting repeated loud detonations and low-flying drone engine sounds over the municipal industrial zone,” regional media reports.
Many inbound UAVs were observed penetrating the region’s air defenses, and images of dramatic scenes of large fires at the site quickly thereafter began ciculating.
Ukrainian media is acknwoledging and detailing the assault. Kyiv Post writes, “The installation manufactures high-octane automotive gasoline, diesel fuel, jet propulsion kerosene, bitumen, and specialized petroleum fractions utilized directly by Russian military logistics and heavy mechanized equipment.”
The Zelensky government had starting Friday shattered the energy ceasefire which had held for some two weeks. The attacks have persisted in defiance of Trump pressure.
The Wall Street Journal had deailed Friday morning in that “Ukraine struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region early on Friday, ending a two-week pause in refinery attacks that came amid heavy pressure from the Trump administration to halt such operations.”
The publication reviewed, “Ukrainian forces last hit an oil refinery on Oct. 15, and had not struck Russian oil infrastructure of any kind since Oct. 20. The pause took place against a background of repeated demands by Trump and other U.S. officials to stop hitting refineries.”
Trump envoy Jared Kushner had reportedly asked Kiev to abide by a 30-day halt. President Zelensky later said he agreed to a brief pause in the strikes, but did so begrudgingly. Relations between his government and the US have been at a lowpoint, amid reports that Washington has moved to cut off vital intelligence sharing and other military assistance.
END
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES//AI
COVID VACCINE INJURY REPORTS; DR MARK CRISPIN MILLER
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS/ENERGY COMMENTARIES
NOT A CHANCE OF HAPPENING!!
Brent, WTI Futs Tumble As Trump May Give Diplomacy A Chance, Iran Floats Two-Day Hormuz Reopening
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 07:10 AM
Brent crude futures fell to $108.41 a barrel, while WTI slipped below $100 this morning, after Axios reported that President Trump favored giving diplomacy with Tehran more time before launching another round of “Epic Fury.” Separately, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the Trump administration accepts its demands.
“Oil prices eased on Monday, with Brent down 2.8% at about $110/bbl and WTI down 3.3% at $100.67/bbl, as hopes for diplomatic progress tempered the geopolitical premium embedded in crude following October’s rally. Iranian and Qatari officials have held three consecutive days of talks aimed at ending the conflict with the US and Israel,” UBS markets analyst Nana Antiedu wrote in a brief note earlier today.
Brent’s Friday gains have been erased ahead of the US session. There were other reports that Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu he wanted diplomacy with Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Saturday that no decision had been made on new attacks on Iran and that Trump preferred a diplomatic resolution.
Earlier today, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei was quoted by Bloomberg as saying that Tehran was ready to reopen the Hormuz maritime chokepoint in two days if the Trump administration was willing to agree to its conditions.
“The possibility of implementing this plan in two days is another indication of Iran’s good-faith approach,” Baqaei said, adding, “We have stated that, if Iran’s demands are met, it would be possible to restore security to the Strait of Hormuz and resume the negotiating process within a short period.”
The spokesman said that an exchange of messages was ongoing with US counterparts via mediators and that “everything depends” on the US side accepting the Iranian demands. “Only then can we discuss the subsequent stages.”
Despite the diplomatic signals, which can change at a moment’s notice, UBS’s Antiedu warned that global oil supply buffers are “wearing thin.”
Antiedu added more color:
The pullback comes against an increasingly fragile supply backdrop. ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber said nearly 1 billion barrels have been drained from global oil inventories since the conflict disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reports. Diesel inventories in some markets are at 35-year seasonal lows, while shipping and logistics costs have risen from roughly 5% to 30% of the cost of a barrel.
Separately, June Goh, a senior oil-market analyst at Sparta Commodities, said that diesel is the “most distressed” fuel product heading into the Northern Hemisphere winter. She noted that spare refining capacity is mostly concentrated in China, where authorities continue to control fuel exports.
Goldman Sachs analysts earlier raised their Brent forecast to $105 a barrel for December and an average of $88 next year. They noted, “The Mideast and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, alongside broader geopolitical fragmentation, create high disruption risk.“
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
ROBERT H/…
He will do to Canada what he did to England. No wonder Liz Truss former PM of England nicknamed him “ carnage Carney”.
END
JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA
South Africa’s Biggest City Faces Total Infrastructure Collapse
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 05:45 AM
Over 50 years of communist anti-colonialism in the third world, aided by some liberal governments in the west, has provided uncomfortable truths about what works and what doesn’t when it comes to human civilization. The first and most controversial truth is that, in many cases, third world societies are self destructive and incapable of maintaining the most basic of necessities.
The second controversial truth is that these same societies run by western interests function far better. All vital infrastructure is maintained and the people have upward mobility. In other words, western colonialism works. No matter what leftists and anti-colonial activists claim, time has proven them wrong.
Case in point: South Africa.
South Africa is like a living laboratory experiment; a real time test case for the inevitable failures of third world and far-left governance. After the end of Apartheid and the takeover of race communists under Nelson Mandela, the 75% black African population took over the bulk of governance.
This “revolutionary” government proceeded to impose 145 race-based laws largely designed to remove white South Africans from positions of political influence and from the workforce; giving preferential treatment to black South Africans regardless of merit. The results of this process are undeniably bleak.
The country has been suffering an accelerating decay for the past 20 years, but it appears that this collapse is about to hit a crescendo. Johannesburg, the industrial and financial center of the nation, is about to face a total infrastructure breakdown on a level that could lead to a humanitarian disaster and the deaths of numerous people.
Complaints of throttled water supplies have been growing. Recent reports suggest Johannesburg’s water network is under severe strain as of November, with widespread low pressure, intermittent supply, and prolonged outages in multiple areas. Residents in some suburbs report going weeks without consistent running water. If governance, funding, and maintenance do not improve, the system faces permanent shutdown.
The average person can live three to four days without water. The disruption of clean water leaves only the putrescent waste water flowing throughout the region, and horrific disease awaits anyone trying to drink it. Current estimates show around 6.5 million residents in the city. It’s a time bomb just waiting to go off.
But it’s not just the clean water services that are the problem. All elements of the country’s water management have been left to rot for decades. The black leftist run government inherited a wealth of municipal systems, and they did nothing to maintain them. Perhaps they expected that these systems would simply run forever?
Even rudimentary things like proper handling of sewage and the use of grates to stop debris from flowing into rivers do not exist. When the government actually tries to fix something, such as putting in a sewer grate for trash, the grate is stolen or destroyed.
Beyond the vital issue of water, other reports indicate a steep decline in city management for electricity, garbage, street repairs, stoplights, building repairs, etc. It’s actually impressive how quickly Johannesburg has turned into a cesspool.
Some will argue that South Africa is been this way for a long time, and none of this is news. However, the current population has been living on borrowed time and borrowed infrastructure. It’s a testament to the durability of western building methods that these systems have lasted this long without any upkeep. There comes a point where decline hits a nexus, and it seems that South Africa has arrived.
The irony is that the anti-colonials, the multiculturalists, the communists running the nation will undoubtedly turn to western governments for aid when everything comes crashing down. In other words, they will beg for “colonist” money while still pretending as if they are successfully self-governing. At no point will they ever admit they have failed, and this is why nothing ever changes for the better in the third world.
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING\
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1208 UP 0.0055
USA/ YEN 157.92 UP 0.403 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!! BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE. URGES PENSION AND INSUANCE FUNDS TO BUY JAPANESE BONDS//
YEN CARRY TRADERS MURDERED
GBP/USA 1.3418 UP 0.0032 OR 32 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3974 UP 0.0006 //CDN DOLLAR DOWN 6 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 39.01 PTS OR 1.08%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 98.90 PTS OR 0.42%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.0604%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 98.70 PTS OR 0.42%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 37.01 PTS OR 1.08%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .04%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 208.25 PTS OR 0.33%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $3904.00
silver:$50.17
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 49.97 UP 13 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 81.00 ROUBLE// DOWN 0 ROUBLE AND 33 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.2458 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.668 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
FRENCH OAT 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.948 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.782 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.508 DOWN 2 BBASIS PTS
USA dollar index early MONDAY MORNING: 101.53 DOWN 22 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSES
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.758 % DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.767% DOWN 1 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.876 UP 5 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.907 DOWN 4 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 4.429 DOWN 5 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.3079 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1218 UP 0.0065 OR 65 basis points
USA/Japan: 157.76 UP 0.247 2OR YEN IS UP 25 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.2190 DOWN 8 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.6489 DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS.
FRANCE 10 YR: 4.928 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
CANADIAN DOLLAR DOWN 4 BASIS PTS TO 1.3984 UP 0.0009
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan CNY 6.6484ON SHORE ..UP
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.6471
TURKISH LIRA: 49.977 UP 2 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 in basis points from FRIDAY at 4.903 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.271 DOWN 4 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.602 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;00 AM $3942.00
SILVER AT 10;00: $50.78
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest ratesMONDAY
DAY CLOSING TIME/ 12:00 AM///
London: CLOSED UP 31.55PTS OR 0.29%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 162.88PTS OR 0.63%
FRANCE: UP 78.27 OR 0.98PTS
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 304.90 PTS OR 1.03 %
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 441.97 TS OR 0.90%
WTI Oil price 97.61
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 101.48 OR DOWN 27 PTS
Brent Oil: 106.75 10;00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 80.91/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 24 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.773 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.504 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM//
Euro vs USA 1.1195 UP 0.0043 OR 43 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3412 UP 0.0026 OR 26 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 5.1963 UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.6253 DOWN 3 IN BASIS PTS.
FRENCH 10 YR BOND: 4.904% DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.767 % UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.868 UP 3 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 157.87 UP 0.352 OR YEN DOWN 35 BASIS PTS//GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM 160.00/ EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3986 UP 0.0018 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 18 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 96.19
Brent OIL: 104.13
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS pts to 4.896%
USA 30 yr bond yield: DOWN 3 PTS to 5.277%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.581 DOWN 0 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.746 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.470DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 101.60 DOWN 15 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 49.97 UP 2 BASIS PTS GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 80.91 UP 0 AND 24 /100 roubles //
GOLD $3940.50 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 50.50 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 213.67 POINTS OR 0.41%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 273.68 PTS OR 1.07 %
VOLATILITY INDEX 21.25 UP 1.83PTS OR 9.42%
GLD: $ 361.65 UP 5.87 PTS OR 1.65%
SLV/ 45.57PTS DOWN 0.97 OR 2.17%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 242.94TS OR 0.68%
END
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
AI/Tech Wrecks As Crude Carnage & Macro Malaise Sparks Bond Bid, Gold Gains
WRAP UP
USA DATA RELEASES
USA ECONOMIC REPORT
“Very Intentional”: Steve Eisman Thinks Anthropic Is Hiding Something
Saturday, Oct 31, 2026 – 03:00 PM
Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance
Steve Eisman, the investor made famous by The Big Short for recognizing the subprime mortgage disaster before much of Wall Street, is now accusing Anthropic of deliberately withholding its latest quarterly financial statements from investors ahead of its potentially $2 trillion IPO.
Speaking Wednesday on Prof G Markets, Eisman questioned why Anthropic’s October 26 prospectus contained financial statements only through June, despite more recent information suggesting the company’s explosive growth may already be losing momentum, according to the podcast and Yahoo.
Asked whether he believed the omission was deliberate, Eisman answered: “Only very intentional.”
That’s a pretty serious allegation, particularly coming from somebody whose reputation was built on recognizing financial absurdities that the rest of Wall Street was perfectly content to ignore. And it dovetails almost perfectly with what I’ve been arguing about the AI bubble for months.
On September 29, I published It’s Official: The AI Emperor Has No Clothes, examining Anthropic’s extraordinary losses, its enormous infrastructure commitments, and the growing disconnect between the enthusiasm in AI equities and the warnings emerging from credit markets.
My argument then was that investors were beginning to get their first meaningful look at the financial machinery behind the AI boom, and what they were discovering wasn’t particularly encouraging.
Now Eisman is suggesting that even this picture may be considerably rosier than the company’s latest numbers would indicate.
According to Reuters figures discussed by Eisman, Anthropic’s quarterly revenue growth decelerated from 144% in the second quarter to 45% in the third. That’s still spectacular growth by ordinary standards, but for a company seeking a valuation approaching $2 trillion, a slowdown of that magnitude deserves considerably more scrutiny than it’s getting.
More concerning is the apparent deterioration in the economics of generating that revenue. Eisman says Anthropic produced $2.08 in revenue for every dollar spent on computing and infrastructure during the second quarter. In the third quarter, that figure dropped to $1.70, a decline of approximately 18%.
In other words, compute spending went from consuming roughly 48 cents of every revenue dollar to nearly 59 cents in just three months.
That’s not exactly the direction you’d hope to see from a company about to IPO, whose valuation depends on the assumption that scaling its technology will eventually produce extraordinary profitability.
Eisman believes part of the explanation is the fading of what he calls “tokenmaxing,” a period when businesses encouraged employees to consume enormous quantities of AI computing resources without worrying much about the bill.
As corporate customers began paying closer attention to costs, spending apparently became more disciplined. Meanwhile, increasingly competitive Chinese AI models have introduced another potential headache: downward pressure on pricing.
If Eisman’s interpretation is correct, the industry may be discovering that customers love AI a whole lot more when somebody else is paying for it.
And that’s a problem when you’ve already committed to building enough computing infrastructure to power a small civilization.
Eisman estimates Anthropic’s potential future computing commitments could total between $800 billion and $900 billion, depending on which agreements are counted.
The company’s filing reportedly identifies at least $110 billion in commitments involving Amazon, another $114.5 billion associated with Google’s infrastructure, and $161.2 billion in equipment lease payments involving Broadcom.
That’s nearly $386 billion across just those arrangements, although the agreements span different periods and aren’t equivalent to debt payable immediately.
The precise total matters less than the fundamental problem: Anthropic needs an astonishing amount of future revenue to make these commitments economically sensible.
And as I pointed out in September, this isn’t just an Anthropic problem.
Oracle’s credit default swaps had been surging, long-dated borrowing costs were climbing, and CDS trading across major AI-related companies was exploding. Nvidia’s single-name CDS trading volume, for example, had reportedly increased from approximately $640 million to $6.9 billion between consecutive six-month periods.
Meanwhile, lower-quality corporate credit was already showing signs of stress, with yields on CCC-rated and lower bonds exceeding 16% in late September.
None of these indicators independently proves an AI collapse is coming. But taken together, they suggest lenders and credit investors are increasingly questioning the economics of the infrastructure boom even as equity investors continue pricing in years of extraordinary growth.
Now we’re getting another potential warning from the operating numbers themselves.
And what makes Eisman’s criticism especially interesting is that he isn’t merely questioning Anthropic’s valuation. He’s questioning whether the financial statements investors have been given adequately reflect the company’s current trajectory.
There is an important caveat here: excluding third-quarter statements from a preliminary prospectus doesn’t automatically mean Anthropic has done anything improper. IPO filings are routinely amended, and the company may need to provide updated financials before completing its offering.
But Eisman’s broader concern remains legitimate. If newer figures reveal materially weaker growth and deteriorating computing economics, investors should want to see them before deciding what the company is worth.
Especially when we’re talking about a business with hundreds of billions of dollars in future commitments and a valuation that leaves precious little room for disappointment.
For years, the AI bull case has relied on the idea that today’s extraordinary expenditures will eventually be dwarfed by tomorrow’s extraordinary profits. Now, the accounting is getting…interesting…The Dirty Accounting Behind The AI Bubble
I’m not disputing the technological significance of AI, nor am I suggesting Anthropic can’t eventually build a highly profitable business.
But technological importance and attractive investment economics are two entirely different things, and Wall Street has a remarkable history of confusing the former with the latter.
What concerns me is the possibility that the industry is approaching the point where revenue growth begins normalizing long before infrastructure spending does.
That would leave companies with enormous contractual obligations, assets depreciating rapidly, increasingly aggressive competitors, and investors who have already priced in something close to perfection.
And if those economics deteriorate, the consequences won’t necessarily stop with Anthropic. They could ripple through the hyperscalers, chipmakers, infrastructure developers, creditors, and the broader market that has become so dependent on the AI investment narrative.
When Eisman was asked whether he’d participate in Anthropic’s IPO, his response was unequivocal: “No.”
I’m not suggesting anybody should automatically follow him. But I do think his concerns deserve serious attention, particularly given how closely they align with the financial and credit-market warning signs I’ve been highlighting.
Because the question is no longer simply whether AI will transform the world.
It’s whether the companies spending hundreds of billions of dollars to make that transformation happen can generate sufficient returns before the bills come due.
And if Eisman is right about what Anthropic’s missing quarter might reveal, we may be getting closer to finding out.
The AI emperor may not just be missing his clothes. He may be trying to get his IPO done before investors realize it.
You can watch Eisman’s full interview here.
END
THE RAVEN..
OpenAI Cuts Funding Round: Bad News At The Worst Time
The biggest name in artificial intelligence just lowered its valuation expectations and came up billions short of its fundraising target.
OCT 31,,,
The cracks in the AI trade are getting harder to ignore, with the NASDAQ plunging nearly -4% on Friday. And this is certainly not the headline the artificial intelligence industry wanted heading into the weekend.
Late Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI, arguably the most recognizable company in the entire AI boom, has been forced to lower its fundraising ambitions after encountering considerably less investor enthusiasm than anticipated.
The company originally hoped to raise $30 billion at a valuation of approximately $1.4 trillion. Instead, it has secured just $11 billion in commitments so far, at a reduced valuation of $1.25 trillion. That’s a $150 billion haircut to its hoped-for valuation, or nearly 11%, and a fundraising effort that has attracted barely more than one-third of its original target.
OpenAI is now looking to raise as much as $20 billion, potentially tapping family offices and wealthy individual investors to make up the difference. After years of seemingly unlimited enthusiasm for anything associated with artificial intelligence, even OpenAI is discovering that capital is no longer quite as easy to come by.
I’ve written repeatedly over the past 6 months that the rush to take these AI companies public could ultimately turn into a race against the clock: get the IPOs done, cash in on the astronomical valuations, and shore up whatever capital is still available before the broader market finally comes apart.
I’ve argued that the window to raise money at these absurd valuations could close much faster than anyone expects, especially once the psychology underpinning the AI trade begins to break. And now, with OpenAI struggling to raise even half of its original target and lowering its valuation expectations in the process, we’re getting our first real indication that the well may already be running dry.
The question is no longer just how much money these companies can raise, but whether they can get their hands on it before the market slams the door shut entirely.
For months, I’ve argued that the AI trade was becoming dangerously dependent on extraordinary valuations, aggressive capital spending, questionable accounting, circular financing arrangements and the assumption that investors would continue providing essentially unlimited amounts of money to keep the machine running. That assumption is now being tested.
Earlier this week, I wrote about the increasingly bizarre accounting practices helping prop up the appearance of profitability throughout the AI ecosystem. As the Wall Street Journal recently pointed out, enormous investment gains booked by companies like Amazon and Alphabet have helped obscure the underlying economic reality of their exposure to Anthropic.
The investments may generate enormous paper profits for the companies funding the AI boom, but those gains don’t necessarily mean the underlying AI businesses are generating sustainable economic returns.
Meanwhile, capital continues circulating throughout the same relatively small ecosystem of technology companies, cloud providers, chipmakers and AI developers.
The whole thing increasingly resembles a financial hall of mirrors.
And then there’s Anthropic, too. As I’ve discussed repeatedly, the company’s impending IPO raises questions about how much investors are being asked to pay for growth, how sustainable that growth is, and how much confidence anybody should have in the financial picture being presented.
Earlier this week, Steve Eisman questioned why Anthropic’s IPO prospectus contained financial figures only through June, despite being filed in late October. His concern was straightforward: more recent results might tell a materially different story about the company’s growth trajectory.
That doesn’t establish anything improper, but it raises questions investors should want answered before assigning an extraordinary valuation to the business.
And here’s another: if OpenAI is struggling to attract capital at a $1.25 trillion valuation, what does that imply for the rest of the industry? What happens when investors start demanding sustainable profits and free cash flow instead of just revenue growth?
The AI boom has required extraordinary spending on data centers, semiconductors, energy infrastructure and speculative technology businesses, much of it justified by future demand that remains uncertain. The entire machine depends on capital continuing to flow. As investors grow more selective, that equation changes.
Markets are already punishing disappointing earnings and questioning enormous capital expenditure budgets. Now the industry’s biggest name is lowering its fundraising expectations.
None of this means AI won’t transform the world. It means investors may finally be questioning how much they’re willing to pay for that transformation.
The internet changed the world, too. That didn’t prevent investors from losing fortunes in the dot-com bust. You can read more about this analogue here:
After an already brutal stretch for technology stocks, this OpenAI news could add fuel to an increasingly nervous market. I would not be surprised to see Monday get ugly. Not because an 11% haircut to a private company’s hoped-for valuation is enough to crash the market, but because it reinforces a much larger concern: the AI boom was built on the assumption that capital would remain cheap, plentiful and indiscriminate forever. That era may be ending.
Whether Monday brings another selloff or a relief rally, the progression is becoming difficult to ignore. First investors questioned the spending. Then the accounting. Then the growth. Now they’re questioning the valuations themselves. That’s a dangerous sequence for a market so dependent on one narrative.
I’ve argued repeatedly that we’re still in the early stages of this repricing, and Friday’s news only strengthens that view. AI doesn’t need to fail for AI stocks to collapse. Investors just need to stop believing that any price is a reasonable price. And OpenAI may have just given us the clearest indication yet that they’re doing exactly that.
END
THE RAVEN
The World Will End If Nvidia Misses Earnings
Sunday, Nov 01, 2026 – 10:00 AM
Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance
I’d like to think I’m being hyperbolic with this title…but, you know…I might not be.
Here’s the rub this fine Thursday afternoon. Both Google and Amazon just missed earnings expectations the last two days, both stocks are getting their teeth kicked in, and the Nasdaq has fallen -1.4% during regular trading before shedding another -1.4% after hours today. The 3:55PM “dip buyers” were down another -1.4% by 4:30PM.
It got me thinking about something truly terrifying.
I’ve joked for years that the powers that be would sooner allow Nvidia to commit massive accounting fraud in broad daylight than permit the company to admit it wasn’t going to make its earnings numbers. After all, hanging in the balance at this point is seemingly the entire multitrillion-dollar global financial ecosystem.
The joke, of course, is that Nvidia has become so systemically important to the market’s psychology that a disappointing quarter would practically constitute a national emergency. I sometimes wonder whether the Federal Reserve would have to establish a special lending facility just to bail out Nvidia. Again…I’m only half joking.
But seriously. Close your eyes for a second. Meditate. Breathe deeply.
Now imagine Nvidia misses earnings.
It would be f*cking fire and brimstone. Locusts descending from the heavens. Rivers turning to blood. Famine, plague, pestilence, “dogs and cats, living together,” to quote Peter Venkman in Ghostbusters.
I was just thinking…if Google and Amazon missing expectations can rattle the market this badly, what the hell happens when the company sitting at the nerve center of the entire bull market suddenly and unexpectedly disappoints?
The one sell is Jay Goldberg of Seaport Research Partners, not any major firm. Even he still has a $180 price target.
Remember, we’re talking about a market with atrocious breadth, an increasingly concentrated handful of mega-cap stocks doing the heavy lifting, and an investment thesis that has effectively been reduced to two letters: AI.
And Nvidia isn’t merely participating in that thesis. Nvidia IS the thesis.
The entire AI infrastructure spending boom, the hyperscaler capital expenditure bonanza, the data center construction frenzy, and a substantial portion of the market’s expectations for future earnings growth all run, in one way or another, through Nvidia.
The company’s extraordinary growth has become the ultimate justification for extraordinary spending everywhere else. As long as Nvidia keeps selling chips at a breathtaking pace, investors can convince themselves that the hundreds of billions being shoveled into AI infrastructure are eventually going to generate returns commensurate with the investment.
But what happens when the company selling the picks and shovels during the greatest technological gold rush in modern history tells investors, even implicitly, that perhaps the miners aren’t buying quite as many shovels as everybody expected? They almost don’t even have to miss…they just have to not beat by a lot…
Then suddenly, the questions I’ve been asking about circular financing, questionable accounting, unsustainable capital expenditures, and the actual economics of artificial intelligence would become a whole lot more difficult to ignore: It’s Official: The AI Emperor Has No Clothes
A miss wouldn’t just be an earnings disappointment. It would raise questions about the assumptions holding up the entire market. It would be seismic…
And almost nobody even talks about this possibility. Nvidia has beaten consensus earnings expectations for five consecutive quarters. Its ability to deliver seemingly miraculous numbers has become so ingrained in investor psychology that the prospect of an actual miss barely exists in the discourse.
Nvidia has beaten Wall Street’s consensus earnings expectations in 15 consecutive quarters, dating back to early 2023. Yet its shares have declined in the trading session following seven of its last 12 earnings reports, underscoring just how difficult it has become for the company to satisfy investors’ increasingly lofty expectations.
The conversation surrounding Nvidia earnings isn’t even really about whether the company will beat expectations anymore. It’s about how much it will beat by, how aggressively management will raise guidance, and whether the numbers will be sufficiently spectacular to justify another few hundred billion dollars in market capitalization.
The possibility that the company could actually disappoint seems to have been removed from the menu of acceptable outcomes.
Which is precisely what makes the thought experiment so interesting. Markets are supposed to discount probabilities. But when an outcome becomes so unthinkable that virtually nobody is positioned for it, even a relatively modest disappointment can produce an extraordinary reaction.
And in this case, the potential implications would extend far beyond Nvidia shareholders. We’re talking about semiconductor companies, utilities, data center operators, power infrastructure providers, private credit, hyperscalers, and practically every corner of the market that has been swept up in the AI spending frenzy.
One disappointing report could force investors to reconsider the valuations of an entire ecosystem of companies whose business models have increasingly come to depend on the assumption that AI capital expenditures will grow exponentially forever.
In my opinion, an outright Nvidia earnings miss, particularly one accompanied by disappointing guidance, could be the shock to end all shocks. The signal to end all signals that this bull market, built on increasingly narrow foundations and increasingly heroic expectations, was finally coming apart.
I have a difficult time imagining a more psychologically devastating earnings report for a market that has effectively put all of its eggs in one very expensive, very crowded, AI-powered basket. Of course, note that I’ve been saying since 2023 that Nvidia could eventually be the black swan…Has The Market’s Black Swan Just Arrived?
And maybe it never happens. Maybe Nvidia continues delivering miraculous numbers until the end of time. Maybe the AI spending boom really is an economic perpetual-motion machine and all of the skeptics, myself included, are simply too stupid to understand it.
But I can’t help wondering what the market would look like the morning after the unthinkable finally happened.
END
Anthropic Files Updated S1: Committed Spend Jumps To $900BN, Only Google Has More
–
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 10:05 AM
We covered Anthropic’s S-1 filing in full here last week. Now we get the Q3 update, and it’s less rosy.
UPDATE (Nov 2): Q3 Is In, And The Operating Profit Lasted One Quarter
The blank has been filled in. Anthropic just filed Amendment No. 1 to its S-1, adding the third quarter, and the line in the prospectus summary that read “to $ for the three months ended September 30, 2026” now reads $17.0 billion.
The exact number is $16.96 billion, a touch above the $16.8 billion management gave its investor day. That’s up 1,127% y/y and 47% q/q. A great quarter, again, and also confirmation of the deceleration we flagged: Q2 grew 144% q/q. And the S-1/A adds a detail that wasn’t in the investor-day pitch: revenue growth in Q3 was “partially offset by a decrease of approximately $600 million from price reductions introduced as part of new model versions and contractual discounts.” So the treadmill now comes with price cuts.
But the real news is lower down the P&L. Two weeks ago we wrote “enjoy the 8% GAAP operating margin while it lasts, probably just one more quarter.” It turns out it didn’t even last that long: Q3 swung back to a GAAP operating loss of $567 million, after the $974 million profit in Q2.
The $5 Billion Rush Order
The S-1/A is unusually direct about why. The loss was “primarily driven by $5.0 billion of compute under short-term commitments and $2.0 billion of non-cash charges related to our donation matching program.”
Start with the compute. Compute and infrastructure expense jumped 77% q/q to $9.9 billion, versus 47% revenue growth, and rose to 58% of revenue from 48% in Q2. That $9.9 billion includes $5.0 billion of compute bought on short-term commitments, “which currently costs significantly more than comparable compute procured under our multi-year commitments.” The filing also notes that Anthropic typically procures compute 12 to 18 months ahead, so these costs are “generally fixed in the near term.”
Translation: demand outran the long-term contracts, so the company bought short-term capacity and paid up. It’s good evidence that compute really is scarce right now. It also shows what scarcity costs: half of Q3’s compute bill came at premium prices.
The result is the ratio we called “the bull case in a single chart” back on Oct 26. Each dollar of compute and infrastructure expense generated $1.72 of revenue in Q3, down from $2.08, the first decline in the series. We also warned then that “unless revenue keeps up, that ratio is about to get a lot less flattering.” Well, it didn’t keep up:
And remember, that’s before the big contracts fully kick in. SpaceXAI alone runs about $9.3 billion a quarter once fully delivered in December, roughly equal to Anthropic’s entire Q3 compute bill, and Microsoft’s $44.9 billion starts this month. If the $5 billion of pricey short-term compute rolls off as the long-term capacity arrives, the mix should get cheaper. If it doesn’t, Q4 compute will make Q3 look restrained.
Back Above 100%
The second driver is a $2.0 billion non-cash charge for the employee donation-matching program, versus just $126 million for the whole first half. That’s 12% of Q3 revenue going to charity accounting in a single quarter, and it pushed “other operating and administrative” expense up to $3.6 billion (21% of revenue) from $1.0 billion in Q2. Generous, certainly. It also makes “adjusted” do a lot more work: adjusted operating income for the first nine months is $4.1 billion (a 12% margin), which implies roughly $2.5 billion in Q3 alone, against a $567 million GAAP loss.
Put together, total operating expenses went back above revenue, at 103% after dropping to 92% in Q2:
To be fair, two lines moved the right way. Personnel expense actually fell to $1.7 billion from $1.9 billion as some option awards fully vested (quarterly stock comp dropped to $1.1 billion from $1.3 billion). And sales, marketing and partnerships fell to 14% of revenue from 22% in Q1. The company credits “a decrease in revenue generated from sales through channel partners as a percentage of total revenue and changes in the terms of our channel partner distribution arrangements.” That speaks directly to our “book it gross” point: the hyperscaler cut is shrinking, either because more customers buy direct or because Anthropic renegotiated the toll. Either way, it’s progress.
The stock comp reprieve won’t last, though. Unrecognized SBC on RSUs is still $24.1 billion (plus $2.1 billion on other awards), and most of it hits the moment the S-1 goes effective.
Another $23 Billion “Loss”
Below the operating line, the valuation markup machine kept running. Q3 net loss was $23.3 billion, of which $21.9 billion came from marking up the convertible notes, derivatives and SAFEs, with another $1.6 billion of other expense. That brings the nine-month net loss to $104.0 billion, on $33.2 billion of revenue. The only real offset was interest income of $1.2 billion on the cash pile, about 7% of revenue and more than twice the operating loss.
The balance sheet barely moved, apart from the deficits. Cash, equivalents and short-term investments were $131.8 billion at Sept 30 ($95.6 billion cash plus $36.3 billion of short-term investments), essentially flat from $131.7 billion in June. The accumulated deficit grew to $156.2 billion from $132.9 billion, and total stockholders’ deficit grew to $149.9 billion from $127.6 billion. The $157.5 billion of redeemable preferred holding it all up is unchanged.
The Bill Gets A Number: $895 Billion (And Counting)
Two weeks ago the S-1’s aggregate commitment total was blank, and we added up the named deals ourselves: about $637 billion fixed, and $780-810 billion including the company’s own estimates for the extra TPU and AMD tranches. The amendment fills in the blank, and it’s bigger. As of (and subsequent to) Sept 30, Anthropic has entered into purchase commitments and leases “with an aggregate committed spend of approximately $895.4 billion, substantially all of which is related to compute and infrastructure.”
Here’s how the filing builds that number:
- $320.0 billion in the formal contractual obligations table (almost all of it, $313.8 billion, non-cancelable purchase commitments, mainly cloud hosting);
- $451.2 billion of leases signed but not yet commenced, mostly starting between 2026 and 2028, with terms of up to 20 years (weighted average about 10);
- $100.2 billion of new commitments signed after Sept 30, “primarily consisting of data center leases” and cloud hosting deals;
- about $24 billion of short-term commitments ($17.4 billion at Sept 30 plus $6.6 billion signed since).
And that still isn’t everything. The table excludes deals “that do not specify a fixed dollar commitment,” for which Anthropic “currently estimate[s] such payments to be approximately $150 billion to $175 billion.” That range lines up with the extra Google TPU tranche ($125-150 billion, 2028-2031) plus AMD’s Helios deal (more than $20 billion), both of which we had already counted in our $780-810 billion estimate. Add them to the $895.4 billion and the all-in tab comes to roughly $1.05-1.07 trillion. Or, in other words, MORE THAN ONE TRILLION DOLLARS!
Two things stand out.
- First, the pace. $100 billion of new commitments in the five weeks since the quarter ended, while the IPO was being marketed and while the company was running an operating loss.
- Second, the duration: Anthropic says about $447.5 billion lands before the end of 2030, and “substantially all of the remainder is expected to be incurred between 2031 and 2045.” That’s a 19-year bet on a product line where, as the original S-1 disclosed, over 80% of Q3 revenue came from model versions released in the prior six months.
Of the named deals, only Google changed. Its hosting commitment was amended again through October and now stands at “at least approximately $121.3 billion” from April 2026 to July 2033 (from $114.5 billion in the original S-1), “regardless of actual usage,” with a true-up if Anthropic underspends. The rest are as before: Broadcom $161.2 billion of TPU lease rent, SpaceXAI up to $120.5 billion, Amazon at least $110 billion, Microsoft $44.9 billion, Nscale $44.6 billion and Lambda $41.3 billion. That’s about $644 billion across seven counterparties.
Only Google has greater commitments than Anthropic…
$70 Billion Due In 12 Months
The number that matters most for IPO buyers is the near-term one. Approximately $69.8 billion of these commitments are due in the 12 months after Sept 30. That’s more than Q3’s entire annualized revenue ($67.8 billion), more than half the $131.8 billion cash pile, and about 11x the $6.6 billion of operating cash flow Anthropic generated in the first nine months of the year (roughly $2.7 billion of it in Q3).
Put simply, next year’s committed bill alone exceeds Anthropic’s entire current revenue run rate, before it pays a single employee. Maybe revenue outruns it: it’s up 45x across the last seven quarters. But at 47% q/q and slowing, with $600 million of price cuts in Q3, the margin for error is shrinking. And part of the IPO proceeds is already spoken for: the pro forma assumes they go toward the tax withholding on the RSU settlement.
The Escape Hatches (And Who Holds Them)
The filing does offer some comfort: about $213.8 billion (24% of the total) “relates to arrangements that are subject to either exercisable termination rights or contingent conditions prior to commencement, such as the counterparty’s ability to secure financing, facilities, or regulatory approvals.” Only $4.3 billion of the next 12 months’ bill has that kind of out.
Look at who carries those contingencies, though. Lambda’s August deal ($34.9 billion of its $41.3 billion) can be terminated by either side “if Lambda does not timely secure the facility lease.” Nscale must use “best efforts to obtain qualifying financing for the NVIDIA GPUs and data center infrastructure.” In other words, the flexibility in Anthropic’s bill comes from the neoclouds’ ability to borrow. If the AI credit window shuts (and CoreWeave CDS suggests it’s narrowing), Anthropic’s obligations shrink, but so does its compute supply. That’s a hedge that pays off exactly when you’d least want to use it.
Meanwhile the vendor financing got more detailed. Broadcom’s $42 billion note facility, which exists “solely to finance quarterly rent payments” on the Broadcom leases, carries 9% interest paid in kind, convertible at 90% of the 30-day VWAP. But if “certain revenue performance conditions are not met,” new notes jump to 13% PIK, converting at 85%. On a change of control, Broadcom can demand 150% of principal. So the supplier lends you the rent, at a rate that rises if your revenue disappoints, convertible at a discount into your stock. Circular financing, now with a penalty rate. Google, for its part, gets an option to buy up to $10 billion of stock in a concurrent private placement at the IPO price, alongside its $20 billion note facility (share issuance under which is capped at 14.99% Google ownership).
Anthropic is clear that the total is a floor: “we expect to continue to enter into additional arrangements to secure compute and infrastructure capacity.” Judging by the last five weeks, $100 billion at a time.
Still Blank: The Price
What the amendment doesn’t fill in: the price range, the share count, and every pro forma line that depends on them. At the $1.5 trillion valuation investors reportedly settled on, Q3’s $67.8 billion annualized run rate puts ANT at about 22x revenue, unchanged from our original math because Q3 came in roughly where management said it would.
The ratings agencies have already done their own math:
So here’s the updated scorecard.
Revenue grew 47% q/q but now carries $600 million of price cuts, and compute grew faster. Half the compute bill was bought on short-term terms at premium prices. The one profitable quarter is now an outlier between two losses. And the committed bill is now officially $895 billion (over $1 trillion all-in), with $70 billion due in the next 12 months, more than a year’s revenue at the current run rate. We asked on Oct 14 whether Anthropic was going public from strength or need. After Q3, we lean a little more toward need, and we suspect the IPO buyers (and the credit market behind them) will too.
Oh, By The Way, Private Credit Defaults Just Hit A Record…
Sunday, Nov 01, 2026 – 11:45 AM
Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance
While Wall Street remains preoccupied with unfolding shitshow in tech and AI right now, there’s another little problem quietly developing beneath the surface from a sector I’ve been warning about nonstop for 2 years: private credit defaults just hit a record high.
According to Forbes, citing Fitch Ratings’ latest third-quarter private credit report, the U.S. private credit default rate climbed to 6.3% over the trailing 12 months, up from 6.0% in the previous quarter. It’s the highest reading in Fitch’s series, which has now deteriorated for five consecutive quarters.
Fitch recorded 27 default events in the third quarter alone, compared with 20 in the second quarter, bringing the trailing annual total to 91 unique borrowers.
But check this out…roughly 88% of those defaults involved some form of restructuring rather than an outright bankruptcy. Lenders are allowing struggling borrowers to defer interest, capitalize unpaid interest into additional debt, or extend loan maturities rather than force an immediate reckoning.
In other words, the financial industry’s favorite pastime of extend and pretend is alive and well. About half of the defaults involved interest deferrals or payment-in-kind arrangements, while another 38% involved distressed maturity extensions. These arrangements can keep companies technically operating while doing very little to fix the underlying problem: too much debt and not enough cash flow.
And the trouble isn’t evenly distributed. Fitch found default rates of 9.7% in both industrial and manufacturing businesses and consumer products and services. Healthcare providers accounted for 16 individual defaults over the past year.
Moody’s has identified similar problems. Its analysis of middle-market borrowers found that a reported 4% default rate increased to 5.8% when distressed debt exchanges were included.
The bigger concern is what happens next. A substantial wave of private loans originated during the cheap-money years of 2020 through 2022 will need refinancing in 2027 and 2028. Many of these companies borrowed under financial conditions that no longer exist, and some have already exhausted their easiest options for postponing repayment.
Moody’s found that borrowers with deeply speculative credit profiles account for more than half of the debt coming due in those two years within its middle-market CLO sample. That means the next couple of years could force lenders to confront losses they’ve spent years trying to postpone.
To be clear, this doesn’t mean the entire private credit market is about to implode. Senior creditors have structural protections, and some borrowers will undoubtedly refinance or recover. But it does suggest that the industry’s apparent stability deserves considerably more skepticism than it’s been receiving.
I’ve been arguing that the financial system is increasingly dependent on perpetual refinancing, accommodating creditors, and the assumption that somebody will always be willing to provide another round of capital.
Private credit is now offering a particularly revealing test of that assumption.
The defaults are already at records, the maturity wall is approaching, and much of the distress is being managed by pushing obligations further into the future. This cannot last forever…Extend And Pretend Eventually Comes To An End
It’s worth remembering that financial crises don’t usually begin when everyone suddenly realizes there’s a problem. They begin when the mechanisms used to conceal or postpone the problem stop working.
And right now, private credit looks like an industry that’s doing an awful lot of postponing while the broader market burns in the background. Lenders are restructuring loans, extending maturities, and finding increasingly creative ways to avoid recognizing losses. But none of that changes the underlying economics. It merely buys time, and time becomes a very expensive commodity when liquidity is disappearing, credit conditions are tightening, and investors are becoming increasingly unwilling to take risks.
My concern is that the panic, restrictiveness, and desperate scramble for liquidity we’re beginning to see elsewhere in the financial system will eventually spread to every corner of the credit markets.
When that happens, the luxury of kicking the can down the road disappears. Lenders will want their money back, borrowers will find refinancing increasingly difficult, and the entire industry’s favorite strategy of “extend and pretend” could very quickly become “pay us right fucking now.”
And that, dear reader, is when we find out just how much trouble has been hiding beneath the surface.
END
KING NEWS
| The King Report November 2, 2026 Issue 7860 | Independent View of the News |
| On Saturday, Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reported the US and Iran reportedly reach a breakthrough in negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz and financial concessions. alarabiya_eng: Key points from preliminary draft framework for US-Iran negotiations obtained exclusively by Al Arabiya English:· Iran could transfer its highly enriched uranium stockpile to an agreed third country or reduce its enrichment level· The Strait of Hormuz could reopen to international maritime traffic within seven days of an initial understanding· China could potentially serve as a guarantor of the implementation and sustainability of any agreement· Direct US-Iran negotiations could be held in Doha instead of Istanbul· Iranian measures on the nuclear file and maritime security would be matched by clearly defined US measures to ease sanctions, blockades and economic restrictions· An independent verification mechanism would assess compliance before each subsequent phase of implementation· Neither side would be required to make substantial concessions without receiving corresponding, independently verifiable commitments· A dispute-resolution mechanism involving mediators and guarantor parties would address delays or violations to help prevent renewed military escalation. https://www.instagram.com/p/DfIomrdFyv3/ Times of Israel: US delegation said to be joining direct talks with Iran in Doha after negotiation breakthrough – Citing sources close to mediation efforts led by Qatar and Pakistan, the report says the sides have agreed on preliminary measures concerning Iran’s nuclear program, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and financial incentives for Tehran, with China and Russia set to serve as guarantors of an agreement. The reported progress follows what Axios describes as more than 12 hours of talks between Qatari mediators and Iranian officials in Tehran yesterday, aimed at averting renewed US strikes on Iran after the November 3 midterm elections…https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-delegation-said-to-be-joining-direct-talks-with-iran-in-doha-after-negotiation-breakthrough/ @RZimmt: Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei: I have read Vance’s letter but have not yet replied. Their tone has changed completely, which is a good sign. The Iranian people have consolidated their victory. No new official decision has been made on changing our nuclear doctrine, but the question is being discussed: if war breaks out again, do we want to maintain our previous doctrine? Google AI Overview: President Donald Trump publicly asserted that the letter was strictly a humanitarian outreach. He stated that Iran needed assistance with medical supplies and that the message was simply focused on “getting supplies in to help people that are not well.” He explicitly denied that the message was intended to reopen broader peace talks. Separate reports published by The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times presented a different objective. Citing U.S. officials and individuals familiar with the matter, the reporting indicated the letter was a strategic back-channel effort to revive peace negotiations. According to these sources, the overarching goal was to gauge whether Washington and Tehran could establish common ground to avert an intense, short-term military conflict There have been so many lies told regarding Iran-US peace negotiations it is prudent to view all reports with a jaundiced eye. Crypto giant Binance reports $6.3 billion potential ‘security incident’https://justthenews.com/government/security/crypto-giant-binance-reports-63-billion-potential-security-incident FT: Binance halts withdrawals after record $6.3bn heist (Reportedly North Korean hackers)World’s largest crypto exchange says an engineer’s laptop was compromised in major security breach On Friday, Ai-related stocks got hammered globally. The Nikkei closed -2.12%. It was down as much as 2.85%, but late manipulation boosted the index. The South Korea Kospi closed -3.53%. Near 10:10 ET on Friday: INTC -28,515, AMZN -2.29%, MU -3.82%, NVDA -2.8%, SNDK -8.36%, GOOGL -1.17%, AMD -8.85%, TSLA -1.44%, AAPL -1.05%, SPCX -4.05%, S&P 500 -1.27%,Nas 100 -2.73%, Nasdaq -2.33%, SOX Index -5.88% The S&P 500 Index opened sharply lower on Friday. After a moderate rebound that lasted about 20 minutes, the index sank to 7596.62 (-123.77 pts) at 10:25 ET. Traders played for the 2nd Hour Reversal. The S&P 500 Index rallied to 7627.3 at 10:48 ET. Selling resumed; the S&P sank to 7590.19 at 12:11 ET. A Noon Balloon lifted the S&P 500 Index to 7603.61 at 12:40 ET; the index then sank to a new daily low of 7527.56 at 14:53 ET. The rally for the expected last-hour manipulation and October performance gaming developed. The late and illegal manipulation pushed the S&P 500 Index to 7588.76 at 15:53 ET. The index then fell to7569.60 at 15:57 ET and closed at 7580.07, -1.82%. Relentless selling pressure on stocks from the opening on Friday until the close overwhelmed the usual manipulation, the Friday Rally, and October performance gaming. Rumors of ‘funds in trouble’ appeared. @barronsonline: Three Federal Reserve presidents called for higher interest rates on Friday, pushing back against Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s more dovish outlook as elevated inflation persists. Fed officials are already saying they’ll need to get back to hiking ratesFederal Reserve Presidents Alberto Musalem and Lorie Logan both indicated that the central bank could need to get back to hiking rates…Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a roughly 76% likelihood of the Fed lifting rates by a quarter percentage point (at December FOMC)… Speaking on CNBC Friday, former Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said he too would have been in favor of a rate hike this week… https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/30/musalem-fed-monetary-policy-tightening.html Fed’s Barkin signals further rate hikes ahead with pace remaining the key questionPersistent inflation and resilient economic activity support further interest rate increases…https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-barkin-signals-further-rate-170429558.html On Friday, AP reported Trump reversed course and would hold rallies in Kansas and Iowa on Sunday, a day after canceling them. Reports said surface-to-air missiles were deployed to protect Mar-a-Lago. Positive aspects of previous session The late but illegal manipulation & Oct performance gaming appeared. USZs +14/32 at 16:00 ET.SP Energy +1.91%, Consumer Staples +1.38%, Utes 0.64%, Health Care +0.43%, Real Estate +0.15%,Materials +0.04%; DJTA +0.48%; DJUA +0.66% Negative aspects of previous session S&P 500 -1.82%, DJIA -1.09%, Nasdaq -2.86%, Nas 100 -3.46%, SOX Index -7.2%SP Info Tech -4.24%, Industrials -1.57%, Commun Services -1.11, Consumer Discretionary -0.86%,Financials -0.74%; Dec WTI +$1.36, Dec Brent +$2.04, Dec Diesel +8.3¢, Dec Gasoline +4.85¢ at 15:16 Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will political polls and betting markets get the Midterm Elections right? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7781.70Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7637.48 (9:59 ET); 7527.56 (14:53 ET) Today – The late manipulation and October performance gaming greatly reduced the equity carnage on Friday. Major indices truncated 0.5 to 0.7 percentage points from their losses. Traders are buying equity futures on Sunday night, as usual, for the expected Monday and Start-of-the Month Rallies, abetted by yet another ‘a peace deal with Iran is at hand’ presented over the weekend. Outside of the Iran and campaign-related reports, the weekend was bereft of impact or interesting news. ESZs +27.25; NQZs +163.50, USZs -6/32, Dec WTI -$1.96, Dec Gas -6.55¢, ¥/$ 157.745 at 20:00 ET Expected earnings per Nasdaq: AAPL 1.98, PLTR ,33m MAR 2.87,https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/earnings Expected Economic Data: Oct ISM Mfg. PMI 54.7, Employment 53, New Orders 55.4, Prices 78, Sept Construction Spending 0.2% m/m; Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee 11:15 ET S&P 500 50-day MA: 7697; 100-day MA: 7615; 200-day MA: 7308 (Close 7580.07, -1.82%)Nasdaq 100 50-day MA: 29,795; 100-day MA: 29,552; 200-day MA: 29,927 (Close 29,402.51, -3.46%) DJIA 50-day MA: 52,210, 100-day MA: 52,366; 200-day MA: 50,605 (Close 51,770.31 -1.09%) (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) @elonmusk: Once you understand the incentive, the reason for the behavior becomes obvious: they are importing a left-voting bloc that depends on government handouts. A prominent example of this in America is Ilhan Omar and her Somali voting bloc in Minnesota, an area which used to be primarily Nordic-German. Importing voters is a CERTAIN path to a single-party supermajority and has ALREADY happened at the state level in California and New York. It also explains why those states have BANNED VOTER ID in order to accelerate a permanent socialist supermajority, destroying any semblance of democracy. We stand on the precipice of disaster, an end to America. GOP Sen @BasedMikeLee: This is why Democrats orchestrated a border invasion. This is why Democrats want more people dependent on the government. This isn’t about helping others. It’s about helping Democrats—and only Democrats—establish permanent political control. Vote Republican. “For everyone who exalts himself will be humbled, but the one who humbles himself will be exalted.” | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Ilhan Omar’s Marriage Application To ‘Brother’ Surfaces With Some Bizarre Errors
Saturday, Oct 31, 2026 – 04:30 PM
Rep. Ilhan Omar’s 2009 Minnesota marriage license application to Ahmed Elmi, the man accused of being her brother, shows her surname written as Omar, crossed out and changed to Elmi, then changed back to Omar, according to a certified copy from Hennepin County obtained by the New York Post.
The name changes could matter because the Justice Department is investigating whether the Somalia-born Minnesota Democrat fraudulently obtained U.S. citizenship in 2000 by failing to use her true legal name and birthdate. That case grew out of an earlier probe into whether Omar committed immigration fraud by marrying Elmi, a British citizen.
The document arrives weeks into an escalating federal effort. Homeland Security Investigations agents raided Omar’s Washington, D.C., home on Oct. 12 as part of the immigration fraud probe. In a court filing last week, the Justice Department referred to her as “Congresswoman Ilhan Nur Said Elmi, a/k/a Ilhan Abdullahi Omar.”
A source familiar with the investigation told the Post that Omar is not her real name and that her birth surname is Elmi, the same as the man she married.
The application is dated Feb. 12, 2009. One question asks whether the bride and groom are related by blood or adoption, and the couple checked “no.” The first revision on the form reads “Ilhan Omar Elmi,” a version that differs from the name the Justice Department now uses in court. The document does not identify who filled it out, though all the entries appear to share one person’s handwriting.
An image of the application has circulated online for years. Alpha News, a Minnesota outlet, appears to have first published it in August 2016. Major news outlets gave it little attention until this month.
Scott W. Johnson, a retired Minneapolis attorney and former Alpha News board member, has spent ten years investigating Omar’s alleged immigration fraud.
“Questions should be asked. She’s never answered them,” Johnson said. “The whole thing was a joke. The marriage was a fraudulent marriage, brazenly fraudulent… It was entered into for a fraudulent purpose.”
A Christian minister married Omar and Elmi on Feb. 12, 2009, the same date the application bears. By then, Omar already had two children with Ahmed Hirsi, whom she had married in a 2002 Islamic ceremony that never became a legal marriage. In May 2009, Hirsi listed the address on the Omar-Elmi marriage license as his own home.
Omar had a third child with Hirsi in June 2012 and finalized her divorce from Elmi in 2017. She legally married Hirsi in 2018, filed for divorce a year later, and married her current husband, Tim Mynett, in 2020.
The Justice Department first opened an investigation into Omar in 2016, under President Barack Obama, into whether Omar married her brother so he could get a green card. The Biden administration closed that probe in 2021 for two reasons. The five-year statute of limitations had run out, meaning prosecutors would have had to file charges by 2014, and the FBI could not interview Elmi, who had returned to the U.K.
Legal experts told the Post that federal investigators now appear focused on a possible conspiracy involving ongoing acts, such as misstating a birthdate, which the earlier statute of limitations may not bar. Civil denaturalization carries no statute of limitations and could lead to Omar’s deportation.
In an academic paper published in August, Elmi, a doctoral researcher at the University of Bristol, identified himself as a “gay man of the East African diaspora.”
Omar has broadly dismissed the allegations as a racist conspiracy theory and a politically motivated smear. Last week, MS NOW anchor Chris Hayes asked her directly whether she married her brother.
“Not to my knowledge,” Omar said.
AJ Kern, a former Minnesota congressional candidate who has examined Omar’s immigration records and birthdate discrepancies, told the Post she sees the record as clear.
“I think it’s pretty clear she married her brother and committed immigration fraud,” Kern said.
Kern said the larger issue is the possibility of a non-citizen holding federal office.
“If we’ve had a foreign nationalist occupying a seat in Congress, that’s a problem,” she said, adding that Congress would be “failing to do their job.”
END
‘Decoy Dan’ Skipped Town Two Days Before NYT Bombshell As Feds Surge Into Alaska
Saturday, Oct 31, 2026 – 09:30 AM
The second Dan Sullivan on Alaska’s Senate ballot has left his hometown, multiple sources told CBS News on Friday, four days before Alaskans finish voting in a race that could decide control of the Senate.
Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired Petersburg schoolteacher running as an independent against Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, was seen on a flight to Anchorage on Monday by a resident and former student, who told CBS she didn’t know where he was headed. That was two days before the New York Times reported that operatives linked to Democrat Mary Peltola’s campaign had recruited him to run, as we reported Wednesday.
A CBS crew in Petersburg found no sign of an active campaign, including outside his home, and dozens of residents said they never received any campaign material from him. A friend said he and his wife are known for traveling the world. Residents were split: one supporter told CBS that Sullivan is the only candidate who can represent Southeast Alaska, while fisherman Andrew Worhatch said, “I don’t think it’s a serious candidacy.”
Sullivan didn’t respond when Petersburg public radio station KFSK sought comment Wednesday, and CBS’s report carries no comment from him. He has said his campaign had no connection to Peltola’s.
Michael Heyman, the U.S. attorney for Alaska, said Friday that the reporting on the candidate’s origins was “troubling” and had prompted a “significant surge of law enforcement assets” into the state, though he wouldn’t say which crimes prosecutors are weighing, according to CBS. Heyman said the matter had been “going on sort of quietly for several months.” He had been recused while under consideration for a judicial nomination, and that recusal “has officially been rescinded,” he said.
The Justice Department, which has subpoenaed several Democratic officials, will seek a preliminary injunction and expedited discovery by Monday in its civil suit to stop Alaska from certifying the result if Sen. Sullivan loses because of voter confusion, Heyman said. The administration filed that suit last week, as we reported, and Todd Blanche defended it in a testy exchange with CNN’s Dana Bash.
Gov. Mike Dunleavy has ordered a separate state investigation into whether Peltola’s campaign should face criminal charges or civil penalties, and said the state could stop or change certification of the Senate result if it finds illegal conduct. Peltola has said she “knew nothing about” the Petersburg candidate and is “not interested in tricking voters.” No one has been charged.
State election officials struck Daniel J. Sullivan from the ballot earlier this year, citing a “deliberate attempt” to confuse voters, but a judge put him back on. He then finished third in the August top-four primary to advance to the general election, Alaska Public Media reported. Sen. Sullivan calls him a “sham candidate.”
END
NEW YORK/ AWFUL
Trump Agrees To Expedite Visa For Ghanaian Mother Of Teen Killed In NYC Shooting, Mamdani Says
Monday, Nov 02, 2026 – 07:25 AM
Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,
New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani said on Oct. 31 that President Donald Trump has agreed to grant an expedited B-2 visa to a Ghanaian mother whose teenage son was fatally shot in the Bronx, New York City, on Oct. 29.
Javits Frimpong, a 15-year-old boy from Ghana who lives in the Bronx with his father, was on his way to school shortly before 9:30 a.m. when he was shot in the abdomen, according to New York City police. He later died at a hospital.
Police are looking for three teenage suspects who were last seen wearing all black and medical masks, running south into nearby Crotona Park, amNY reported.
In a post on X, Mamdani said he talked to Trump about Frimpong’s killing. He indicated that the teen’s mother, who is in Ghana, wanted to travel to the United States to bid her son farewell.
“The murder of a child is a pain no parent should have to endure, let alone from thousands of miles away. Javits Frimpong’s mother deserves to say goodbye to her son in person,” the mayor said.
“I just got off the phone with President Trump and he has agreed to grant her visa immediately. All of New York City is mourning this tragedy.”
Trump has not publicly commented on Mamdani’s post.
The Epoch Times has reached out to the White House for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.
Ghanaian Foreign Minister Sam Okudzeto Ablakwa thanked Mamdani in a social media post and said that his government welcomed Trump’s decision to immediately grant a visitor visa to Frimpong’s mother, Doris Adu Gyamfi.
Ablakwa said he had directed officials to assist Gyamfi with her visa application and that Ghana would cover all of her travel expenses to and from the United States. He added that Ghana was also prepared to contribute to a dignified funeral for Frimpong.
“Madam Doris Adu Gyamfi’s pain as a loving mother is unimaginable and indeed everything must be done to ensure she is present to pay her respects,” he said. “We resolve to continue to work together in securing justice for Javits.”
The boy’s father, Thomas Frimpong, described his son as a quiet teen who spent much of his time on his cellphone. He told reporters that several days before the shooting, he learned that his son was being bullied at school.
“It was the principal who told me,” he said. “He said two guys are disturbing my son so he has suspended the two guys. My son is at school. He’s innocent, so I call him. I talk with my son, he said ‘Dad, I’m OK.'”
According to a statement issued by Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.), Javits Frimpong had moved to the Bronx from Ghana a year ago to live with his father and start a new life.
Torres said his borough is mourning the teen’s death and urged anyone with information about the shooting to contact the New York Police Department’s Crime Stoppers hotline at 1-800-577-TIPS.
“Every child in the Bronx deserves to walk to school without fearing for their life, and no parent should ever have to endure what Javits’s father, Thomas, is enduring now. My heart is with him and with everyone in Claremont grieving today,” he said.
END
MINNESOTA
DOJ Uncovers $29M More In Minnesota Benefits Fraud, Calls State ‘Epicenter For Fraud In America’
Sunday, Nov 01, 2026 – 10:30 PM
Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,
The Department of Justice (DOJ) announced it identified roughly $29.1 million in government benefits fraud in Minnesota over a one-month period.
Between Sept. 30 and Oct. 30, the DOJ’s National Fraud Enforcement Division and the District of Minnesota charged, convicted, or sentenced 13 individuals for proven or alleged schemes that caused nearly $83 million in intended losses to the federal government.
The DOJ said in an Oct. 30 statement that it uncovered $29.1 million in fraud in newly charged cases, which is part of the total $83 million.
The targeted benefits programs include Minnesota’s Medicaid program, the Federal Child Nutrition Program, and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP. Some are accused of engaging in bribery as part of carrying out their schemes.
In one case, Shaakir Mohamud Ibrahim, 54, of Pelican Rapids, Minnesota, is facing wire fraud and money laundering charges for being part of a scheme to defraud the Federal Child Nutrition Program through the nonprofit Feeding Our Future.
Ibrahim and his co-conspirators are alleged to have falsely claimed to be serving thousands of meals to children every day for four months. The department alleged he used this fake meal distribution to collect more than $1.1 million in reimbursements through the nonprofit.
In another case, the DOJ said it charged Feisal Mohamed Elmi, 46, of New Brighton, Minnesota, with 11 counts related to health care fraud in an $8.2 million scheme that targeted the state’s Medicaid program.
So far this year, the Justice Department said it has issued more than 1,000 subpoenas and executed over 40 warrants to identify fraud in Minnesota.
“Minnesota is the epicenter for fraud in America,” acting deputy attorney general Trent McCotter said in the statement.
“The Trump administration’s crackdown is working, and the results speak for themselves. Through the Minnesota Fraud Task Force, we are systematically dismantling schemes preying on Americans. Backed by more than a thousand subpoenas and 40 warrants, the message is simple: No one stealing from taxpayer-funded programs is safe,” McCotter said.
The Epoch Times reached out to Shaakir Mohamud Ibrahim’s legal representative for comment but did not receive a response by publication time. The Epoch Times could not reach Feisal Mohamed Elmi’s legal representative.
During an Oct. 30 news conference, Trump administration officials highlighted the crackdown against fraud in Minnesota. FBI Director Kash Patel told reporters that FBI Minneapolis and other law enforcement officers executed 17 search warrants on Oct. 29, with four people arrested for allegedly seeking to defraud more than $41 million from thousands of victims.
Colin McDonald, assistant attorney general for the National Fraud Enforcement Division, said during the conference that prosecutors charged five people in the past week for Medicaid fraud schemes involving $48 million in intended losses.
“The days of indifference are over … wherever the money leads, the full weight of government will follow,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at the event.
Earlier, in August, the Treasury said in a statement that various fraud schemes based out of Minnesota have siphoned off federal and state dollars meant for people with disabilities, individuals lacking housing, or those struggling with procuring food. This has potentially cost Minnesota billions of dollars, with some of the stolen funds laundered abroad.
To tackle this issue, the Treasury announced the renewal of a Geographic Targeting Order requiring money transmitters and banks in the state’s Ramsey and Hennepin counties to report information about fund transfers of $3,000 or more to recipients or banks outside the United States.
The order aims to help law enforcement detect when fraud proceeds are sent overseas and act quickly to deal with the issue, the Treasury said.
“We will continue to give law enforcement critical tools to trace criminal networks that siphon taxpayer dollars and move them overseas. The Trump Administration will not allow criminals to profit from programs intended to help vulnerable Americans,” Bessent said in the statement.
GREG HUNTER….INTERVIEWNG LARRY KLAYMAN
Total Breakdown of Election System – Larry Klayman
By Greg Hunter On October 31, 2026 In Political Analysis18 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)
Renowned Attorney Larry Klayman, founder of Judicial Watch and later FreedomWatchUSA.org, has been warning about how the Left will push violent revolution against America. Klayman has long predicted (along with other top intel experts like retired General Michael Flynn) of a Marxist style Bolshevik Revolution. Election and voter fraud is simply part of the plan for the midterms this November. Look what has been going on in just the last week: In Arizona, non-citizens are being signed up to vote. Non-citizens are being told they can vote by officials in Minnesota, California, New York and many other states, too. Judges in California refuse to stop illegal aliens in the tens of thousands from voting by mail. President Trump says it could be up to one million illegals voting in that state alone. Judges in the Ninth Circuit refuse to lift restrictions on what the Trump Administration can do to stop voter fraud. In Michigan, they want to destroy election records right after the election. Same thing in other states. The DOJ warns state election officials they could face jail time if they fail to preserve records. Decoy candidates on the ballot in Alaska are on the run, and President Trump offers $1 million in reward money for proof of election and voter fraud. Again, this is just in the past week! When have you ever seen this sort of lawlessness and fraud leading up to an election? NEVER! It is over-the-top, in-your-face cheating like never before. Klayman explains, “It is a total breakdown of our (election) system. You know what happens when something like this happens? You go into a revolutionary mode. If you can’t resolve issues at the ballot box, what is the option? If you can’t solve issues in court, what is the option? That’s where we are headed. What we are going to see with El-Sayed, re-election of Ilhan Omar, Rasheda Talib, Mamdani and the rest, and you see these people in control and put in positions where they have actual national security information and will harm this country, which, undoubtedly, will happen. It is very clear where their loyalties lie: Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, you name it. What is the option but revolution if you can’t resolve it at the ballot box and you can’t resolve it in court?”
The Lying Legacy Media (LLM) is also towing the line for the communist/Islamist takeover of America. The Washington Post is calling El-Sayed an “America First” candidate, which is total bull crap because El-Sayed has openly expressed an “obligation” for Sharia Law. Klayman says, “It is seditious, and you should be prosecuted. I don’t care if you are a member of the press or not. If you are furthering the interests of someone who is obviously a terrorist, then you deserve to be prosecuted.”
Dr. Jerome Corsi says the midterm elections will not be over on Election Day. Expect there to be legal fights to drag on for weeks and maybe months. Klayman says, “Dr. Corsi is right. It’s not going to be over on Election Day. This is going to remind me to a greater extent of what happened in the year 2000 when there was an election fight between George W. Bush and Al Gore. There are going to be many, many legal battles here. I also believe there are going to be battles in the streets. I am not advocating that, but I think that is going to happen.”
There is much more in the 39-minute interview.
usawatchdog.com/total-breakdown-of-election-system-larry-klayman/
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Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes one-on-one with renowned lawyer and government corruption fighter Larry Klayman, founder of FreedomWatchUSA.org, as we are seeing firsthand the breakdown of our election system for 10.31.26.
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After the Interview:
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