GOLD CLOSED DOWN $30.50 TO $3992.35
SILVER CLOSED UP $0.69 TO $51.95
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,020.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/10/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 11/12/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 1
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 2 6
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 7 2
TOTAL: 9 9
MONTH 4581
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOVEMBER./2026: 9 CONTRACTS NOTICES FOR 900 OZ or 0.0280 TONNES
total notices so far: 4581 contracts FOR 458,100 OZ OR 14.249 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 8 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 4,000 OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1532 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 7.660 million oz
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $30.50 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL INSTEAD OF FRAUDULENT GLD/SMALL CHANGES AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.22 TONNES
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.69 AT THE SLV.//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///
NOV: INITIAL STANDING 5.820 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S TINY 3 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 15,000 OZ//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 8.665 MILLION OZ//
NOV. 14/305 MILLION OZ
NOV: INITIAL STANDINGl 10.566 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1 CONTRACT FOR 100 OZ//(0.00311TONNES)//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 14.292 TONNES
GOLD PRICE LOSS OF $83.10
NOV INITIAL STANDING 10.566 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 100 OZ OR 0.00311 TONNES///NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 14.292 TONNES
NOV// 46.892 MILLION OZ
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.92 PTS OR 0.46%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 241.12 PTS OR 0.98 %
Nikkei CLOSED UP 789.91 PTS OR 1.31%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.32%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 6.6707
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.6687 Oil UP TO 86.67 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 93.15 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING DOWN 6.6707//OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.6687 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS WEAKER OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
NOV 0//SO FAR
NOV 0 SO FAR
NOV 0
THE SPECS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE ( IT FELL BY $83.10)
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 2 ENTRIES i) out of JPMorgan 65,395.134 oz ii) Out of Manfra;: 32.151 oz ( one kilobar) total withdrawal: 65,427.285 oz |
| Deposit to theDealerInventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold 0 ENTRIES xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 9 CONTRACTS 900 OZ 0.0280 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 14 Contracts 1400 OZ 0.0435 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 4581 notices 458,100 OZ 14.249TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
DEPOSITS:CUSTOMER ACCT
ENTRIES: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawals
2 ENTRIES
2 ENTRIES
i) out of JPMorgan 65,395.134 oz
ii) Out of Manfra;: 32.151 oz
( one kilobar)
total withdrawal: 65,427.285 oz
adjustments: 0
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF NOV OI STANDS AT 23 CONTRACTS HAVING A LOSS OF 79 CONTRACTS.
ON TUESDAY WE HAD 459,400 OZ( 14.289 TONNES) STAND FOR DELIVERY: TODAY, 459,500 OZ (14.292 TONNES) FOR A GAIN OF 100 OZ //1 CONTRACTS (.00311 TONNES)//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 14.292 TONNES OF GOLD
.
DECEMBER, THE LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR, ITS OI FALLS BY 7838 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 237,566
JANUARY RISES BY 68 CONTRACTS TO 1237 OI
.
We had 9 contracts filed for today representing 900 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 2 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 9 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 6 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NON /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4,581) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (23) CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 9 x 100 oz per contract) equals 459,500 OZ OR(14.292Tonnes of gold)
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NOV. /2026. contract month,we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4,581) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV( 23) contracts minus the number of notices served upon today 9x 100 oz per contract) equals 459,500 OZ OR(14.292Tonnes of gold)
new total of gold standing in NOV becomes 14.292 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR NOV: 14.292 TONNES WHICH IS NOW VERY STRONG FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV/
TUESDAY VOLUME: 258,941 GOOD
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,676,023.357 oz 52.13tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,676,023.357.tonnes oz 52.13 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 22,930,447.996oz//
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 14,241,501.342 tonnes (442.970 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 8,688,946.624 oz.
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON in oz 12,565,478 ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
390.983 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
NOV DELIVERY MONTH
NOV 11
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 4 entries i) Out of CNT 25,477.870 oz ii) Out of Delaware; 5,019.662oz iii) Out of Loomis: 1010,547.660 oz iv) Out of Stonex: 541,900.430 oz TOTAL WITHDRAWAL: 1,582,945.622oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | ENTRIES: 0 |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 8 CONTRACT(S) ( 40,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 201 Contracts (1.0005 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1532 contracts 7.660 MILLIONoz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
ENTRY:0
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
0 ENTRIES:
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals:
4 ENTRIES
i) Out of CNT 25,477.870 oz
ii) Out of Delaware; 5,019.662oz
iii) Out of Loomis: 1010,547.660 oz
iv) Out of Stonex: 541,900.430 oz
TOTAL WITHDRAWAL: 1,582,945.622oz
adjustments : //
dealer to customer: 75,124.325 oz Delaware
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 101.205 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 332.463 Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR NOV
FRONT MONTH: SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS: 209 FOR A LOSS OF 19 CONTRACTS .
ON TUESDAY WE HAD 8.650 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY. TODAY 8.665 MILLION OZ FOR A GAIN OF 15,000 OZ OR A QUEUE JUMP OF 15,000 OR 3 CONTRACTS DECIDED TO TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
.
DECEMBER LOST 2652 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 63,392
JANUARY GAINED 18 C0NTRACTS TO 1,035 OI
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:8 or 40,000oz
CONFIRMED volume TUESDAY; 85,061 fair/
AND NOW NOV DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1532 X5,000 oz = 7.660 MILLION oz.
Then we take the difference between the front month of NOV. and the number of notices filed for today x 5000 to give us our standing
Thus the standings for silver for the NOV 2026 contract month: (1532 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of NOV (209 minus number of notices served upon today ( 8 x 5000 oz) equals silver standing for the NOV .contract month equating to 8.665 MILLION OZ t
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 101.205 million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 125.080 ///332.463million: 37.65%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
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NOV11 WITH GOLD DOWN $30.50 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.29 TONNNES
NOV10 WITH GOLD DOWN $83.10 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.51 TONNNES
NOV9 WITH GOLD UP $36.20 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 0.8600 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.37 TONNNES
NOV6 WITH GOLD DOWN $32.30 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 2.850 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.51 TONNNES
NOV4 WITH GOLD UP $133.00 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.850 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.66 TONNNES
NOV3 WITH GOLD DOWN $28.35 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.51 TONNNES
NOV2 WITH GOLD UP $68.40 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.65TONNNES
OCT 30/ WITH GOLD DOWN $129.60 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.08TONNNES
0CT 29 2026 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.45 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 2,56 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043,34 TONNNES
OCT 28/2026 WITH GOLD DOWN $23,45 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.20 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD..INVENTORY REST AT 1041,65 TONNES
0CT 27/ WITH GOLD UP $38.30//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD.. A WITHDDRAWAL OF ,65 TONNES OF GOLD AT THE GLD..INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040,80 TONNES
OCT 26/ WITH GOLD UP $28,40 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GKD.. A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAK IF 16.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD..INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.47 TONNES
OCT 23//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1057.62 TONNES
OCT 22//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $87.75 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.18 TONNES
OCT 21//2026/WITH GOLD UP $8.55 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD.// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 20//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.05 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 19//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 5.13 TONNES OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 16//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.91 TONNES
OCT 15//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.21 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.20 TONNES
OCT 14//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $66.25 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.41 TONNES
OCT 13//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF OF 2.281TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.411 TONNES
OCT 12//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.13 TONNES
OCT 9//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.562 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.411 TONNES
OCT 8//2026/WITH GOLD UP $16.85 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.703 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.873 TONNES
OCT 7//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.27 TONNES
OCT 6//2026/WITH GOLD UP $30.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A DEPOSIT OF 0.754 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.27 TONNES
OCT 5//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.854 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.696 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1042.29 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
NOV 11// WITH SILVER UP $0.69// NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: ../ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.630 MILLION OZ
NOV 10// WITH SILVER DOWN $1.54// HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.451 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//../ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.630 MILLION OZ
NOV 9// WITH SILVER UP $0.65// HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3540 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//../ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.081 MILLION OZ
NOV 6// WITH SILVER DOWN $0.35// NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: ../ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.435 MILLION OZ
NOV 4// WITH SILVER UP $2.44// SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 242,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV../ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.435 MILLION OZ
NOV 3// WITH SILVER DOWN $1.05// HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.656 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.677 MILLION OZ
NOV 2// WITH SILVER UP $1.55// HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.34 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.021 MILLION OZ
OCT 30// WITH SILVER DOWN $3.06// NO CHANGES AT THE SKV/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.681 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25: HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.334 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.681 MILLLION OZ
OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTOR RESTS AT 498,327 MILLION OZ
OCT 27/ WITH SILVER UP $0.25 NO CHANCES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.327 MILLION OZ
OCT 26/ WITH SILVER UP 0.25 SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 451,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.327 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.94 : :NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.876 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.72 : : SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 632,000 OZ INTO SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.876 MILLION OZ
OCT 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28 : : STRONG CHANGES AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 858,000 OZ INTO SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.508 MILLION OZ
OCT 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 : :NO CHANGES A WITHDRAWAL OF 943,000 OZ INTO OUT OF SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.650 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP $1.19 : :MEGA HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 4.374 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.593 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER UP $1.19 : :SMALL CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 406,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.219 MILLION OZ
OCT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.25 : :SMALL CHANGES A WITHDRAWAL OF 135,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.948 MILLION OZ
OCT 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.97 : :HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 722,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.813 MILLION OZ
OCT 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51 : :HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 722,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.948 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.62 : :SMALL CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 948,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.226 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.74 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 532,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.278 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.36 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 451,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.910 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.31 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.361 MILLION OZ
OCT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.87 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.361 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 504.630 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF//JOHN RUBINO//RAVEN/JIM RICKARDS
Jim Rickards Warns Oil’s ‘Peace Trade’ Is A Trap
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 06:40 PM
Authored by Jim Rickards via Daily Reckoning,
The price of oil has dropped sharply over the past few weeks.
Traders are once again betting the war will end soon. This is a dangerous assumption.
We’ve written from the beginning of the war that it would not be over quickly and the U.S. would struggle to win in the end, despite being able to inflict enormous damage on Iran and its economy. That forecast has proved highly accurate.
Viewed from Iran’s perspective, there has been no regime change. Iran still retains a substantial stockpile of highly enriched uranium and the regime continues to resist U.S. attacks.
It is true that scores of top Iranian religious, military and political figures have been killed. The result is personnel change, but that’s not regime change. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), with a figurehead ayatollah, is still in charge.
Trump has claimed over and over that the war would be done “in a few days” or “a few weeks,” but those claims proved hollow, and Trump’s credibility on the issue is dropping.
There was a “ceasefire” last April, a “Memorandum of Understanding” last June and a string of negotiations, but none of it lasted.
There are negotiations currently underway through Qatar between Iran and the U.S., but the sides are still far apart. I don’t expect that to change. Both sides are playing for time to rest, rearm and prepare to resume the fighting.
There’s a relative lull in the fighting right now, but both sides know that’s just a breather. Major military action will likely resume in a few days, now that the midterm elections are over in the U.S. and parliamentary elections are over in Israel.
An Unwinnable War
U.S. failure to win the war does not mean Iran has achieved a major victory.
Iran can’t win the war except in the sense of the regime hanging on and continuing to block the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. can’t win either – bombing blows things up but won’t win the war by itself.
The U.S. won’t agree to Iran’s terms involving reparations and withdrawal from the Middle East.
Iran also insists that it will control the Strait of Hormuz going forward, with vessels seeking transit subject to Iranian permission and restrictions. Iran has also sought to impose transit fees based on vessel size and cargo, while reserving the right to waive those fees at its discretion, obviously beginning with its own oil export cargoes.
The U.S. will not agree to any of this.
Iran won’t agree to U.S. terms, including the elimination of its nuclear enrichment facilities and surrender of its highly enriched uranium stockpiles.
The U.S. also wants an end to Iranian support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen at the entrance to the Red Sea and Hamas in Gaza. Iran will never agree to these terms.
Iran depends on the so-called Shia Crescent that runs from the Strait of Hormuz through Tehran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to exert regional influence and keep Israel continually on the defensive.
With neither side coming close to agreeing to the other side’s terms, this war will drag on with no end in sight.
The War’s Economic Kill Chain
Of course, the impact of this war goes far beyond the battlespace.
Prices for oil, liquefied natural gas, nitrates, sulfur and distillate products such as gasoline, diesel and kerosene (jet fuel) have risen sharply. This has led to inflation not only in energy costs and home heating but in a large variety of consumer goods.
Everything you buy moves by truck, either to your door, a distribution center or a store. When the cost of diesel to move trucks goes up, the cost of everything on the truck goes up with it.
This dynamic will not change soon.
Matters will soon get worse. Sovereign petroleum reserves, natural gas reserves, fertilizer and chemical stockpiles have all been drawn down over the past eight months since the war began.
Those stockpiles are one reason prices have not gone even higher and shortages have not been more severe. That grace period based on reserves is running out. Many stockpiles are depleted, and further shortages and price spikes may not be far behind.
This supply disruption will play out in inflation, which in turn could drive interest rates higher.
Those higher interest rates affect mortgages, credit cards and other forms of consumer debt. They also add to the cost of servicing the national debt as the U.S. Treasury has to refinance maturing debt at progressively higher rates.
Even the AI infrastructure boom will slow as hyperscalers face higher interest rates on the enormous borrowings and financing commitments they are undertaking to pay for new data center construction.
The process feeds on itself, with supply shortages, higher costs, higher interest rates, slowing investment and ultimately a market crash and recession.
But before the crash and recession, investors will have to endure inflation. The bad news comes in stages, but it’s almost all bad news because of a war that never should have started.
Iran’s Next Targets: Oil, Power and Water
Iran is another “forever war” and looks more and more like Vietnam as the months drag on.
The regime continues to strike oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz with anti-ship missiles and drones. Over the weekend, at least two full tankers of oil were on fire in the U.S.-controlled southern route.
If the war restarts at full scale, the Iranian battle plans have been well advertised. When the U.S. begins its new attack, they will not remain passive.
Iran still has a substantial arsenal of missiles and drones. Iranian officials have threatened attacks across the Persian Gulf, warning that nothing is off limits.
That means Iran could attack pipelines, refineries, oil fields, electricity-generating stations, ports and desalination plants.
This presages a humanitarian crisis as Gulf populations dependent on desalination could face severe water shortages within days if critical facilities are disabled.
The news (really propaganda) will be filled with election stories for weeks to come. But Congress will be as dysfunctional as ever, even with new faces in place.
The real story is what’s going on in Iran.
Get ready for more fireworks and higher prices for gas, diesel and everything else as far as the eye can see.
END
2/ ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
The post-Trumpian world
History will not treat President Trump kindly. He will be judged to have thrown away US hegemony. But the decline in US geopolitical power was happening anyway.
Introduction
Empires come and go. We are living through such a change, a Thucydides trap marking the end of the American empire. The rise of Asian hegemons and the fear it instils in America and her allies made war inevitable. In Thucydides’ time it was the 27-year Peloponnesian Wars. Today it’s also a series of wars, culminating in Ukraine and Iran.
The founder of geopolitics, Halford Mackinder had an interesting take on it. In his 1904 The Geographical Pivot of History, he pointed out that European nations had been melded by attackers from modern-day Russia and beyond — “A remarkable succession of Turanian nomadic peoples — Huns, Avars, Bulgarians, Magyars, Khazars, Patzinaks, Cumans, Mongols, Kalmuks. A large part of history might be written as a commentary upon the changes directly or indirectly ensuing from these raids.” But he argued that Western Europe and America’s time in turn is now up.
You could maintain that despite the loss of earlier Asian ethnicities it is a process which continues today, chipping away at us. However, the difference is that Western Europe and the US have lost their moral compass, essential for the maintenance of a cohesive state. Consequently, the Asian hegemons need do nothing to make Western Europe and its American allies disintegrate as nations.
Mackinder called the current era Columbian, the rise of American power from the discovery of the New World. He thought it was peaking in 1904, but thanks to two world wars and the migration of global bond markets to New York it continued into the middle of the last century. The disintegration of the currency began in 1933, confirmed by the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944 until it was finally suspended in 1971.
Since then, US power has continued to dominate world affairs, but that is coming to a Thucydidian end. The Asian superpowers taking over are three in number: Russia,
China, and Iran. Not only do they have strong moral compasses, but their defence systems are in advance of the West’s which is based on sea power. The Asian hegemons are bounded in the north by frozen seas and to the south by land. This makes them militarily invincible to navies and invading armies. Furthermore, the development of China’s railway silk roads gives great military and economic mobility across the entire continent.
Just as the Turanian nomads melded European nations, now the Americans have melded the three Asian hegemons.
The old world is boxed in
Ukraine and Iran are the last throws of the dice for US hegemony. The Ukraine war started with a US plan to advance NATO to the Russian border, within 300 miles of Moscow. It provoked Russia’s annexation of Crimea, followed by its Special Military Operation in 2022. When Ukraine tried to come to an agreement with Russia soon after it started, NATO scuppered it. Since then, it has been a war of attrition, with Russia slowly gaining ground towards the Dnieper River while destroying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. To the horror of the Europeans, their proxy war against Russia has failed and it will be only a matter of months before all is lost.
Ukraine has proved yet again that attempts to invade Russia, which was the CIA/NATO intention always fail. It requires a land-based invasion with stretched supply lines. Invading troops face long periods of attrition encompassing brutal winter conditions. It was this which turned back Napoleon and over a century later, Hitler. Any competent military strategist would have predicted the failure of NATO’s Ukrainian campaign.
Having failed to defeat Russia, the attack against Iran was even more absurd. After capturing Maduro of Venezuela in an overnight raid, President Trump believed he could similarly swiftly defeat Iran. When you cut through American propaganda, it is clear that Iran is far from defeated and is prepared to destabilise the entire region with hypersonic missiles in the event of a further US attack. Whether a renewed attack against Iran occurs or if the US resorts to nuclear weapons, it is clear that the damage done to US interests far outweighs any imagined benefits, of which in reality there are none.
While US and European politicians find it impossible to escape their group-thinking mentality, their electorates are seeing through the failures. The US mid-terms were a rejection of Trump’s policies particularly against Iran. French and German leaderships face resurgent right-wing oppositions, more accommodative of the Russians. Politically, Western Europe is a disaster area, contrasting with strong Asian leaderships.
Much to the frustration of America, NATO, and the Europeans the Asian hegemons have played their hands very well. They allow their Columbian rivals to make all the mistakes while they themselves do very little. The former can’t even extract any negotiating points from the latter. A case in point was when President Xi visited Washington in September. According to Chinese reports, Xi was asked by Trump to help resolve the Iran conflict to which Xi’s reply was to respect the Memorandum of Understanding that Trump himself had signed in June. Your mistake, your solution.
An Asian future
If anything, Trump’s presidency has sealed the fate of Mackinder’s Columbian era. Whether or not the US has one more go at Iran, it is clear that the triumvirate of Russia, China, and Iran are its successors to global power, proving Mackinder’s analysis correct a little over a century after his forecast.
We must consider how that domination will evolve. The first and most important development will be the replacement of the dollar currency. China has already put in place a new financial architecture. The only missing link is with gold, an exchange rate for the yuan to be fixed in gold grains. Russia is also in a strong position to put the rouble on a gold standard. Iran’s currency is the obvious weak spot, but for trade with Russia and China she will have to accept and pay in yuan and roubles.
A fourth Asian partner is hovering in the wings, which is Turkey. Turkey is important because of the Turkic influence along the ancient Silk Road into central Asia. We can see a grand coalition developing in the next hundred years, based on national independence and mutual cooperation. Fringe nations to the coalition, such as those bordering the Indian and Pacific Oceans will inevitably be drawn in as trading partners and away from the Columbian coalition. Eventually, the Europeans will rediscover their trading interests, probably after their fiat currencies have sunk with the US dollar.
It would make sense for the Asian partnership to cement their relationship by building a new city, a Xanadu in the geographical centre of Mackinder’s World Island — probably at or near old Tashkent, Bishkek, or Almaty. It would celebrate the origins of international trade from Marco Polo’s time, cementing the Asian partnership.
Keynesian macroeconomics will die with the western fiat currency system. Leaderships with a sense of economic history will revert to the ancient Roman system of gold being final settlement while credit is the promise of it. This was the basis of UK, European, and American industrial revolutions of the nineteenth century. It is now the Asians’ turn.
END
CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
Gold swaps via BIS soar, indicating heightened price suppression efforts
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2026-11-10 11:11Section: Daily Dispatches
11:14a ET Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Surreptitious efforts for gold price suppression conducted through the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, soared in September and October.
The bank’s monthly statements of account for those months were published yesterday —
https://www.bis.org/publications/statement-account-30-september-2026.pdf
https://www.bis.org/publications/statement-account-31-october-2026.pdf
— and GATA’s analyst of the bank’s activities, Robert Lambourne, calculates from them that the bank’s gold swaps rose from 141 tonnes at the end of August to 165 tonnes at the end of September and to 218 tonnes at the end of October, an increase of 55% in just two months.
END
Vince Lanci: Is gold being spoofed lower again?
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2026-11-11 09:27Section: Daily Dispatches
9:26a ET Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
In his commentary today at VBLGoldFix, Vince Lanci picks up on GATA’s report yesterday —
— about the sharp increases in the gold swaps undertaken by the Bank for International Settlements in September and October.
Lanci concurs that the BIS is the coordinator of central bank efforts to restrain the price of gold and that this constitutes market manipulation and encourages bullion banks to short the monetary metal.
Lanci’s analysis is headlined “Is Gold Being Spoofed Lower Again?” and can be viewed at the GoldFix channel at YouTube, with his remarks about the GATA report on the BIS swaps beginning at the 10-minute mark here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE//KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT/297
5. COMMODITY REPORT ///GOLD/
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.92 PTS OR 0.46%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 241.12 PTS OR 0.98 %
Nikkei CLOSED UP 789.91 PTS OR 1.31%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.32%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN AT 6.6707
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 6.6687 Oil UP TO 86.67 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 93.15 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING DOWN 6.6707//OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN TO 6.6687 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND DOWN ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS WEAKER OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING DOWN AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS WEAKER
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 6.6707
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 6.6687
1A.HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 241.12 PTS OR 0.98%
1 B. SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.92 PTS OR 0.46%
2. Nikkei closed UP 789.91 PTS OR 0.98%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL UP TO 86.67
BRENT; 93.15
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP 30 BASIS PTS TO 102.43 EURO FALLS TO 1.1135 DOWN 34 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.7930 UP 12 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 159.12… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.9420 UP 8 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN //CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN (6.6707 AND OFFSHORE: DOWN AT 6.6687
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA. CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. GOVERMENT ASKED JAPAN PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE FUNDS TO BUY MORE JAPANESE BONDS AND REPATRIATE ALL FOREIGN BONDS.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP for Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yieldsLOWER on all fronts in the EU German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +3.3055 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP AT 4.339 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.8610
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 4.1417%
3j Gold at $4045.10 /Silver at: 52.85 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 37/ 100 roubles/82.50
3m oil (WTI) into the 86 dollar handle for WTI and 93 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 159.12 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.7930% UP 12 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS TO BE REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.9420 UP 8 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.8293 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9237
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.008 UP 2 BASIS PTS…NOW ABOVE 5.00%
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.358 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.748 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 50.24 UP 1 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.2056 DOWN 2 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.6442 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
10 YEAR FRENCH BOND YIELD; 4.761 //UP 2 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.717 UP 6 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.4560 UP 8 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Rise As CoreWeave Calms Debt Jitters, Sparking AI Rebound; Oil Jumps On Hormuz Mines
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 08:21 AM
US futures are higher as a trifecta of AI catalysts, i) CoreWeave’s beat-and-raise, ii) reports that Anthropic’s bankers are weighing an IPO valuation of $1.5 trillion or more and iii) word that OpenAI’s quarterly revenue hit $10 billion for the first time, revived the battered tech trade and helped markets shrug off Tuesday’s hot CPI hangover, even as oil rebounded after Iran’s IRGC claimed two tankers hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz; as a result Nasdaq futures have more than recouped Tuesday’s losses while cash Treasuries, closed for Veterans Day, sit just shy of 5% on the 10Y. As of 8:15 am ET, S&P futures are up 0.9% while Nasdaq 100 futures rise 1.8% and Dow futures are up 0.2%. On Tuesday the S&P 500 recovered from its session low to close down just 0.4% at 7,521 after the hotter than expected CPI print and hawkish Fedspeak; without Nvidia and Microsoft it would have finished in the green. Premarket, semis are surging, with SOXX up 5.2% and DRAM up 8%, Nvidia is up 5.1% and the Mag 7 are mostly higher; CoreWeave jumps 13% after boosting its annual revenue forecast and easing fears about its debt-laden business (some of which we flagged last night), pushing Nebius and Marvell higher with it. The day’s driver is AI (again): with hedge funds having cut risk at the steepest pace in more than a decade, positioning, not macro, is doing the heavy lifting for the tape, per Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky. With the cash bond market shut, 10Y TSY futures are down about 6 ticks, indicating yields back over 5%, as Fed hike bets grow: a December 25bp hike is fully priced with some odds of 50bps, and Goldman added a third hike for March. The dollar is modestly firmer, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.1% and USD/JPY briefly topping 159 for the first time since late September. In commodities, Brent snapped a two-day losing streak, rising about 2% to above $93 on Iranian rhetoric, the Hormuz mine claims and a drone attack on Russia’s Ust-Luga port; gold is up 0.4% to around $4,050 and silver jumps 2.7%. Bitcoin is a touch lower around $73,600. The US economic data slate is limited to MBA mortgage applications at 7am; there are no Fed speakers on the schedule. US stock markets are open, but the bond market is closed for Veterans Day.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher: (Nvidia (NVDA) +5.1%, Tesla (TSLA) +2%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +1.2%, Meta Platforms (META) +0.8%, Microsoft (MSFT) 0%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.1%, Apple (AAPL) -0.7%)
- Artificial intelligence infrastructure stocks are rallying after the CoreWeave report and as reports on Anthropic and OpenAI lifted sentiment across the sector. Applied Digital +9.7%, Oracle +5.4%. Nvidia gains 3.7%, even after being downgraded to neutral at Baird as analysts wait for clarity on possible US government action tied to an upcoming congressional hearing.
- Astronics shares (ATRO) slide 13% after the company reported earnings per share of $1.08 for the third quarter.
- BrightView shares (BV) fall 18% after it forecast revenue for 2027 that missed the average analyst estimate.
- CareDx Inc. (CDNA) shares are up 2.9% after the stock was initiated at overweight by Piper Sandler, which cited the growth potential of the organ transplant services company.
- CoreWeave (CRWV) gains 15% in premarket trading after the cloud-computing provider boosts its annual revenue forecast, easing worries about the company’s financing.
- Globant shares are down 1.3% after Guggenheim downgraded the IT services company to neutral from buy, citing weaker growth prospects ahead.
- Grocery Outlet shares (GO) are down 8% after the discount supermarket chain lowered the high end of its adjusted Ebitda forecast for the full year.
- Intermex shares (IMXI) falls 6.4% after Western Union terminated its pack to buy the company.
- Mercury Systems (MRCY) rises 3.5% in premarket trading, after the defense company’s results beat expectations, prompting JPMorgan to upgrade the stock.
- MP Materials Corp. (MP) shares rise 3.3% in premarket trading as Freedom Capital Markets raised its recommendation on the rare earth company to buy from hold on valuation.
In other corporate news, CoreWeave staged a debt-relief victory lap, raising its annual revenue forecast and promising no additional parent-level unsecured debt through 2027 (Goldman’s Gabriela Borges sees it as the start of a rerating), even as it guides to a hefty interest bill; Costco declared a $30 special dividend, its first in nearly three years, plus a buyback of up to $4 billion; Western Union terminated its pact to buy Intermex; BrightView sank after a disappointing fiscal 2027 outlook; Grocery Outlet lowered the high end of its adjusted Ebitda forecast; Akamai was cut to in-line at Evercore ISI; Alibaba’s chip-design unit T-Head filed for a Hong Kong IPO; and TSMC said it plans to invest in Anthropic and OpenAI after October revenue jumped.
Globally, the overnight takeaway, per Bloomberg’s Jan-Patrick Barnert, is that the hot US inflation print hurt the bonds investors had piled into as a hedge far more than the stocks they were hedging. Core CPI rose 0.3% in October, above estimates for a third straight month; Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the report bordered on disturbing, Dallas Fed’s Lorie Logan still sees the need for at least two more quarter-point hikes, and 2Y yields jumped roughly 18bps, the most since April 2020 (as we detailed yesterday). And yet the S&P barely budged and the VIX slipped back below 20. The AI trade, left for dead a week ago, is back on the menu courtesy of CoreWeave, Anthropic’s mega IPO and OpenAI’s revenue milestone, while the market keeps doing what it’s not supposed to do with a Fed hiking into a hot print.
Another hot CPI print seemed to seal the deal for another hike: markets now fully price a 25bps move in December with some chance of more.
Steven Dooley, head of market insights at Convera Australia, said Asian markets opened more positively than Wall Street’s losses would have suggested; while interest rates remain the main driver for markets, he noted that AI valuations are a hot story.
T. Rowe Price chief US economist Blerina Uruci argued that elevated energy and commodity prices are increasingly feeding through into core inflation and that the FOMC will need to raise rates more in 2027 than markets had previously anticipated; she does not think the latest CPI justifies a 50bp December hike, and prefers positioning for a higher terminal rate over taking a view on the immediate path.
Not everyone is buying the rebound: investor Jack Selby warned that a disappointing Anthropic debut may trigger a major reversal in the AI trade, and Bloomberg’s Markets Live team flagged reports that some Anthropic backers are offering portions of their IPO allocations for a fee, a warning sign for the AI narrative (see our take on the $1.4 trillion… or $1.0 trillion offering). Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s prime brokerage desk found that global equity hedge funds cut risk at the steepest rate in more than a decade through the first week of November, which suggests the worst of the selling may be over.
Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky called the CPI report unhelpful, hot across the board and hard to dismiss as simple energy pass-through, with the market now pricing a December hike plus some optionality of 50bps. Yet the equity tape proved resilient: the SPX barely fell, the VIX briefly traded into the 20s but finished below 20, and with gross cut, nets historically low and investors heavily hedged, he argues positioning is a tailwind while the Fed is a headwind. On AI, he notes overnight neocloud commentary was broadly supportive, with data center capacity constraints still the main bottleneck and compute utilization tracking at elevated levels. Rates are a headwind but not yet flashing red (it is the rate of change that matters), credit is the one to watch with HY spreads chopping sideways, and absent fresh negative information he expects the volatility premium to keep decaying. His watch list for Veterans Day: the neoclouds and the next move in energy.
JPM’s Market Intel desk under Andrew Tyler stays Tactically Bullish, viewing Tuesday’s CPI-driven move as an opportunity to reset bond yields higher to match growth of about 3.4% in Q3. The team agrees with strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas that the Tech washout appears to be at or near its completion, likes owning broad-based Tech and US Memory and Semis via options, and prefers playing the Tech plus Cyclicals barbell through European cyclicals given lighter positioning. JPM notes its recession basket (JPRECES) is up 14.9% since September 30 while SOXX is down 22.7% and DRAM down 32.7%; Lakos-Bujas reiterated his 8,000 year-end S&P target and sees the deleveraging as well advanced (as we noted).
Goldman’s desks spent the night on CoreWeave and the Fed. In London, Sean Johnstone on the TMT desk notes CoreWeave’s 5Y CDS was around 1,150bp before the print and that until CDS spreads and unsecured borrowing costs stabilize or fall meaningfully, credit markets will be the driver; Nebius and Cerebras report tomorrow. Goldman economists, meanwhile, added a third 25bp hike in March 2027, pushed their first cut to December 2027 and raised their October core PCE estimate to 0.35%. In FX, Matt Atherton says GS Trading cut its short USD risk and prefers funding pro-risk longs with EUR, while still seeing yen longs as the best hedge to AI and growth concerns (as we discussed).
Commenting on the overnight action, Cavendish’s Roger Lee told Bloomberg that “It would appear overnight that the market feels a little bit more comfortable with the AI trade,” and that “Coreweave had some very good numbers, and the Korean market was reasonably strong overnight.” Berenberg’s Ulrich Urbahn said “The AI trade is recovering on hard demand evidence rather than sentiment: CoreWeave beat third-quarter estimates and raised its full-year outlook.” Jefferies’ Mohit Kumar added that “Our positioning indices suggest that both equity and credit positioning is close to neutral, which is one of the reasons we are positive on risky assets.”
As tech stocks suffer, the equal-weight S&P and the Stoxx 600 are outperforming: over the past month the Nasdaq 100 has lost 10% while the Stoxx 600 has gained 4%, leaving Europe with far less damage to repair. Barclays derivatives strategists including Anshul Gupta note the Euro Stoxx 50 and the banks index remain more negatively correlated with crude than at any point in at least 20 years, while European oil and gas stocks have never been more positively correlated to oil.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.3% at 660.51 and climbing toward a fresh record, although breadth is split with 282 members up and 291 down. Semiconductor stocks extend their rebound to a fourth day as AI sentiment recovers, with Soitec, ASML, Nokia, STMicro and Infineon among the gainers, while energy leads, bouncing from its worst losing streak since 2020 as oil rises. JPM notes the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.8% and the DAX 0.7%, with Energy, Tech and Materials leading and Healthcare, Retail and Real Estate lagging; thematically, AI themes, Momentum and Beta are leading. Siemens Energy surges after adding as much as €9 billion to its buyback, while CSG plunges to a record low after cutting its margin outlook. Here are the biggest European movers:
- Semiconductor stocks in Europe extend their rebound to a fourth day as sentiment toward the broader AI trade recovers. Gainers include Soitec, ASML, Nokia, STMicro and Infineon.
- Energy stocks lead gains in the region, rebounding from their worst losing streak since 2020 as oil prices moved higher following two days of declines.
- Siemens Energy shares rise as much as 7.9% after the company announced plans to buy back an additional €9 billion in shares through 2030, and announced targets for the medium term which analysts see as positive.
- Spirax shares advance as much as 4.8% as analysts say the thermal energy and fluid technology specialist demonstrated good momentum across all its businesses in today’s 10-month trading update.
- Intermediate Capital Group shares gain as much as 4.1% after first-half results beat expectations in key areas, with analysts highlighting stronger fee-related earnings and fundraising.
- CSG shares fall as much as 23% to an all-time low since a January listing after the defense firm reported revenue that missed estimates and lowered its full-year profit margin outlook.
- E.ON shares slip as much as 2.3%. The German utility reported few earnings surprises, leaving Deutsche Bank analysts focused on regulatory decisions that will determine future grid returns and the scope for higher investment.
- Vestas shares fall as much as 9.4% after the wind energy company posted earnings below expectations for the third quarter. Citi says the new guidance ranges could lead to consensus cuts at the midpoint.
- Alcon shares decline as much as 9.1%, the most since May, after weaker-than-expected third-quarter sales at the Swiss eye care products maker, driven by a miss in its Implantables division.
- ABN Amro shares fall as much as 2.8%, reversing earlier gains, after the bank reported third-quarter results. Analysts noted that strong net interest income was offset by weaker fees.
- Swiss Life shares decline as much as 3.1%, the most since May, after the insurer reported a Swiss Solvency Test ratio that JPMorgan sees below consensus expectations.
- ITV shares fall as much as 5.7% after the British broadcaster reduced its outlook for total advertising revenue in the fourth quarter, citing an uncertain macro environment that’s denting sentiment.
Asian stocks rose for a third session as strength in technology shares outweighed renewed concerns over higher rates, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index up as much as 1.7%. South Korea’s Kospi led with a 2.6% gain as SK Hynix and Samsung bounced off recent lows, Taiwan’s Taiex rose about 2.5% as TSMC jumped 4.8% on October revenue and its plans to invest in Anthropic and OpenAI, and Japan’s Nikkei closed at 61,249 as futures-led short covering accelerated into the afternoon, with Goldman’s Japan semis basket up 6.44%. That was despite SoftBank, which plunged as much as 11% after its first net loss in almost two years (and a $3.7 billion bonfire of AI power gear deposits) before paring nearly all of the drop. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell about 1%, weighed by biotech, EV makers and Alibaba after T-Head’s IPO filing, while mainland stocks recouped early losses. Australia’s ASX 200 was little changed as losses in CBA offset tech gains, and Chinese government bonds dipped on a report that Beijing is sounding out a tax on interest income from sovereign debt.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1% and re-approaching Tuesday’s peak, while the DXY trades in a 102.26 to 102.51 range, above the prior session’s high. USD/JPY rose as high as 159.04, the highest since September 24, near its 100-DMA, keeping traders on alert for jawboning from Tokyo after PM Takaichi said she won’t pursue fiscal policies that lead to excessive inflation. EUR/USD dipped 0.2% to 1.1138, the Swiss franc is the G10 laggard after the SNB said it told the government it is ready to be active in currency markets, and Korea’s won gained as much as 0.9%, outperforming EM peers on the chip rally. Higher US rate bets weighed on the Thai baht, Indonesian rupiah and Philippine peso, while Hungary’s forint underperformed in CEE.
In rates, the cash Treasury market is closed for Veterans Day (which conveniently spares it a second day of pain), leaving futures as the only live read: 10Y TSY futures are down about 6 ticks in a 106-00 to 106-06 range, a full point below Tuesday’s pre-Waller open, with the 10Y yield last at 4.99%, less than a basis point from the 5% line in the sand. On Tuesday the curve bear flattened hard, with 2Y yields up about 17.5bps and 10Y up about 10.8bps, and the 10Y auction tailed. JPM notes 28bps of hikes are now priced for December and the terminal rate rose to 4.638% from 4.404% on Monday. In Europe, Bunds pared early gains after hawkish rhetoric from Iran’s Rezaee lifted energy prices, and gilts opened firmer on easing BOE bets before succumbing to the same energy-led selling; Germany sold €1.08 billion of 31-year bonds at an average yield of 3.66% with a bid-to-cover of 1.3. In Japan, the 10Y JGB yield jumped 10.5bps to 2.795%, tracking the Treasury selloff. The focus now turns to Friday’s PPI, with JPM’s Feroli seeing headline up 0.6% m/m and core up 0.4%.
In commodities, WTI December crude is up 0.9% at $86.80 and Brent January is up 1.6% at $92.96 (after hitting a high of $93.51) as oil snaps a two-day decline: Iran’s Rezaee warned that any new US attack would be met by targeting more distant US bases and said Iran won’t remove any enriched nuclear material, the IRGC claimed two tankers using an unauthorized route hit mines in Hormuz, and a drone attack sparked a fire at Russia’s Ust-Luga Baltic export hub. That’s even as Qatar says it has secured a window of at least two weeks for US-Iran diplomacy, and as Goldman’s Privorotsky notes the administration appears to favor sustained economic pressure and the naval blockade over a return to major combat; if Brent consolidates near $90 with collapsing realized volatility, equities should increasingly look through the noise. Dutch TTF gas leads the complex at about €87/MWh. Gold is up 0.4% around $4,050, silver jumps 2.7% to about $53 and LME copper is up about 1%. API data showed a 9.8 million barrel crude draw and a 5.1 million barrel build at Cushing; OPEC publishes its monthly oil market report today.
The US economic data slate includes MBA mortgage applications at 7am; there are no Fed speakers on the schedule. The bond market is closed for Veterans Day while stock markets are open. Corteva reports today, and the UBS European Conference and Baird’s Global Industrial Conference continue.
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Trump administration’s economic pressure campaign against Iran was effective enough that “there’s really no need for major combat operations any longer”: NYT
- CoreWeave eased fears about its debt-laden business during a high-stakes quarterly report, indicating that sales growth remains strong despite challenges facing the data center industry: BBG
- Banks are increasingly turning to credit insurance to lay off risks tied to their data center loans as lenders seek to stretch internal limits to pour more money into the AI boom: FT
- US judge said President Trump’s defamation lawsuit against the BBC can proceed: RTRS
- US House backed motion that derails the impeachment of Defense Secretary Hegseth: WSJ
- South Korea’s antitrust regulator fined over a dozen domestic banks and brokerages a record $1.2 billion for collusion in government bond auctions over more than three years: BBG
- Japanese retail investors, who are sitting on a ~$7T hoard of cash, appear to be pivoting aggressively into JGBs: FT
- China is sounding out lenders on a possible 25% tax on interest income from government bonds: BBG
- After Tuesday’s CPI report, Austan Goolsbee said the Fed must address inflation, calling the October CPI report “borderline disturbing”: BBG
- GS says the October CPI report surprised meaningfully to the upside across several categories, marking a third month of worse inflation news; the desk continues to expect a second 25bp hike in December and is adding a third 25bp hike in March 2027, which could come as early as January: GIR
- GS now expects a third 25bp rate hike in March, followed by gradual cuts back to 3.25-3.5% starting in December 2027: GIR
- US crude inventories surged by 9 million barrels last week, the API is said to have reported, which would be the biggest gain in three months: BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as the region mostly shrugged off the subdued handover from Wall St, where all major indices were pressured as the dollar and yields gained on hawkish Fed rhetoric and hotter-than-expected CPI data. The inflation numbers and Fed speak boosted hawkish rate hike bets, with money markets fully pricing in a December rate hike and about a 10% probability for a greater 50bps move. ASX 200 eked out slight gains in range-bound trade as the rebound in tech was counterbalanced by losses in the top-weighted financial sector following earnings from Australia’s largest lender, CBA, despite reporting an 8% increase in Q1 unaudited net profit. Nikkei 225 continued to benefit alongside the global tech recovery despite weakness in SoftBank shares after it posted a H1 net loss of JPY 768bln. KOSPI clawed back initial losses and outperformed its regional peers, while the Korea Exchange activated a sidecar on the Kosdaq amid the broad resurgence. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed, with the Hong Kong benchmark pressured amid weakness in biotech and EV makers, while the mainland gradually recouped early losses to trade in the green.
Top Asian News
- China October vehicle sales fell by 9.2% Y/Y vs prev. decline of 8.4% in September.
- China’s NDRC said it will boost financial risk control for BRI projects and will expand BRI cooperation in emerging sectors.
- Japanese PM Takaichi said no intention of pursuing fiscal policies that would lead to excessive inflation and she expects the BoJ to conduct appropriate monetary policy to sustainably and stably hit its 2% price target.
- South Korea will extend fuel tax cuts for two months to end-January.
- PBoC Q3 Monetary Policy Implementation report says the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) are entirely in the green, building on the prior day’s advances. Sentiment remains firmer after trilateral talks between US-Russia-Ukraine, and with mediation efforts between US-Iran also helping. However, benchmarks are off best levels after Iran’s Secretary of Supreme National Security Council warned that any new US attack would be met with the targeting of “distant” US military bases as well. He added that they will not remove any enriched nuclear material from Iran. European sectors hold a strong positive bias. Tech is the clear outperformer, taking lead from strong performance in the AI/tech space overnight, following on from strong CoreWeave earnings (detailed below). The KOSPI closed with gains of 2.6%, with SK Hynix (+5.3%) and Samsung Electronics (+3.6%) both moving off recent lows. Elsewhere, Basic Resources and Energy complete the top three. To the downside resides Food Beverage & Tobacco, albeit losses are only modest. Key Movers: Alcon (-5.6%, decent results but tightened 2026 outlook), Brenntag (-3.4%, Q3 EBITDA missed consensus), Siemens Energy (+8.4%, Net, Revenue & Profit beat, Orders miss. Increasing buyback and dividend), RWE (+0.8%, adj. EBITDA and Net Income higher Y/Y. FY Net Income seen at the upper end of the range). US equity futures are broadly firmer this morning, with outperformance in the NQ after CoreWeave brings some optimism back to the tech sector. CoreWeave (CRWV) shares +11% pre-market following stronger than expected quarterly revenue and profits, alongside upgraded FY guidance and a growing order backlog; the release highlighted robust AI infrastructure demand.
Top European News
- A widening divide has opened in Eurozone sovereign bond markets between highly indebted countries like France and Belgium and safer borrowers like Germany, according to FT.
- NIESR sees UK inflation to overshoot the Bank of England target for the next four years.
FX
- Snapshot: G10s are mostly lower against the USD. The Aussie fares a bit better vs peers. The Swiss Franc is the laggard today, potentially thanks to the positive risk tone, but this narrative has not been seen in the JPY.
- DXY is slightly firmer this morning and currently holds towards the upper end of a 102.26-102.51 range. Initial action saw the index take a breather from the hefty gains seen in the prior session following hawkish Fed speak and a hotter-than-expected US CPI report. However, the strength has since returned; DXY now trades above the peaks made in the prior session (102.41); a firm breach above 102.50 will see the index head towards the 14 Oct high at 102.94.
- US-specific newsflow will likely be light for today, with the region observing Veterans Day (only US bond cash trade is shut). Focus therefore will be on the geopolitical situation, on both the Ukraine-Russia and Iran-US fronts. For the former, trilateral talks have concluded, with updates expected in the coming few days as to whether any progress has been made. The US-Iran situation is a little more complicated as mediation efforts continue, but US/Iranian officials appear to be pushing back on reports of potential concessions. Any progress will be USD-negative, and could see the index return back towards its 21-DMA at 101.94.
- Elsewhere, EUR/USD is under modest selling pressure, and largely moving at the whim of the USD. It currently holds within a 1.1139 to 1.1170 range, and towards the lows seen last week. ECB speak today came via Nagel, who spoke solely on the German situation; he mentioned that the German recovery was stronger than forecast, adding that growth is likely to accelerate in Q4. Focus ahead will be on ECB President Lagarde.
- Attention remains on USD/JPY, with the pair sitting just under the 159.00 mark; the high for the day (158.98) near-enough coincides with its 100-DMA. The latest US CPI saw the pair jump to elevated levels, amidst widening yield differentials; it won’t be a surprise to see some jawboning from Japanese officials in the near-term. Overnight, PM Takaichi offered some confidence building remarks by suggesting that she will not pursue fiscal policies that will lead to excessive inflation.
- SNB’s Schlegel says that they are ready to be active in FX markets.
Central Banks
- Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to deliver 25bps rate hikes in December and in March vs prior forecast of a hike in December this year.
- Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter) said on PBS NewsHour that CPI was bordering on disturbing and they have real issues on their hands, adds they are going to have to deal with that. Most troubling is that services inflation is not coming down. Inflation is both cost-side and demand-side driven. His fear is starting to see overall overheating prices of a whole bunch of things. At the same time, job market is steady and stable. Will have to come to terms with it if inflation stays persistent and it’s a major concern if inflation gets built into expectations. Everything is always on the table and we must get inflation down to the target.
- Fed’s Paulson (2026 voter) said Fed will move more aggressively if inflation landscape worsens, adds further gradual rate hikes are appropriate given high inflation and exact path of rate policy depends on how the economy evolves. Monetary policy needs to be somewhat restrictive. Gradual rate hikes have also given Fed officials space to gauge the impact and have given the economy time to adjust. CPI data showed inflation remains a problem. Supported Fed’s recent rate decisions. Underlying inflation is stuck between 2.5% and 3%. Fed has more work to do to lower inflation. The economy is stronger than expected and job market robust and stable. AI and energy impact on inflation are hard to gauge. Risks to the inflation outlook are high.
- Fed’s Bowman (voter) said the fact that inflation is not on a downward trend should give us pause, adds need to think about what pace and what timeline to address it. The Fed cut rates gradually last year and then paused before resuming, in same way that the Fed may work to address inflation in coming months. Inflation expectations an important data point, but not necessarily controlling how she thinks about things. Inflation expectations very well anchored. Shifting her focus to inflation. Would need to see AI and Middle East risks abate before could be confident inflation will come down next year.
- ECB’s Nagel said German recovery stronger than forecast, adding that growth is likely to accelerate in Q4.
- PBoC injected CNY 187bln via overnight reverse repos with the rate at 1.25%.
- PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7191 vs exp. 6.6855 (prev. 6.7167).
Fixed Income
- A contained start for fixed income, rebounding slightly from Tuesday’s bearish action on US CPI and Fed speak, but with upside this morning capped as energy has an upward bias and as conditions are relatively light on account of it being Veterans Day.
- Nonetheless, USTs are lower by a handful of ticks, in 106-00 to 106-06 confines, and as such a full point off the pre-Waller opening levels on Tuesday. Fed speak since has largely been on the hawkish side of things, with the unsurprising exception of Bowman, but not to the same 50bps extent as Waller suggested.
- PPI on Friday before PCE later in the month are the main scheduled points to watch for indications on the December decision. But a hike is seemingly cemented and while there is at most about a 10% implied probability for a 50bps move, that scenario is very much an outlier.
- Bunds pared initial upside following hawkish rhetoric from an Iranian official, which spurred some strength in the energy complex. (See geopolitical section for details). Bunds currently hold within a 122.46 to 122.80 range. The European docket is light. No move earlier to final German CPI which was unrevised.
- Gilts opened on the front foot, again, unwinding some of the pressure on Tuesday. However, as with EGBs, UK paper succumbed to energy-led selling pressure. Specifics are light, domestic focus on the PM’s 10yr plan and the suggestion it may underwhelm expectations from within the Labour party itself.
- China is set to issue up to USD 2bln of dollar-denominated bonds in Hong Kong.
- Australia sold AUD 1bln in 5.00% May 2038 bonds, average yield 5.0982%, and a bid to cover 3.10.
- UK sells GBP 1bln 0.125% 2028 Gilt via tender: b/c 3.94x (prev. 3.76x), average yield 4.185% (prev. 4.272%)
- Germany sells EUR 1.931bln vs exp. EUR 2.5bln 3.40% 2047 and 2.90% 2056 Bunds.
Commodities
- Initially, crude was firmer, but only modestly so. Focus on Qatar saying it has secured “at least two weeks” for diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran, though significant differences remain. Further, there was pushback from Iranian officials on this, saying claims of US negotiations and a Qatar meeting are false.
- At first, this kept crude around USD 92.00/bbl for Brent Jan’27, bid but well within and at the lower-end of ranges from the last two weeks, when a near USD 115/bbl peak printed. Thereafter, in a belated reaction to commentary from Iran’s Rezaei that any new US attack would be met with the targeting of “distant” US military bases and that they won’t be removing any enriched material, further strength was seen. This helped Brent to form a fresh peak, before then moving higher once again following reports that two tankers hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent Jan’27 currently sits at highs of USD 93.51/bbl.
- Ahead, we now await any signs of progress, or not, from the Qatari side, ahead of the potential meeting including Iranian officials and US VP Vance next week. Note, Treasury Secretary Bessent was relocated after Iranian threats, and while there has been no suggestion of this thus far, it is plausible that such threats could derail the Vance visit.
- Dutch TTF was leading the space before the latest Middle East reporting, and continues to do so. Currently, holding at EUR 87/MWh. Potentially driven by the lack of significant progress on the Russia-Ukraine front. Russia’s Kremlin has described EU relations as non-existent, with no intention to communicate with the bloc in Abu Dhabi. Points that, alongside some European forecasts turning colder for next week, have supported European gas.
- XAU is recovering from its CPI/Waller/Fed induced pressure on Tuesday. However, the yellow metal is struggling to make much upside amid the strong risk tone and USD strength. Holding around USD 4050/oz, and some USD 100/oz shy of levels earlier in the week.
- Base peers are bid, following the risk tone higher, though the recent USD move is potentially capping somewhat. 3M LME Copper firmer by near 1% on the day.
- Norway’s Gassco reported unplanned outage of 5.1 mcm/day at Troll field on November 11th-12th.
- US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -9.8mln (exp. -1.0mln), Gasoline +2.7mln, Distillate -8.0mln, Cushing +5.1mln.
Trade/Tariffs
- US Ambassador to China Perdue said NVIDIA (NVDA) affair shows that US should stay diligent on China, adds China said it’s to firmly safeguard multilateral trading system, and will uphold most favoured nation treatment. China’s licensing regime for magnets is hugely escalatory. US is not getting the flow of magnets that it wants from China. US and China militaries are beginning to talk again.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will meet next week in Shenzhen and then again in Miami, while he repeated call for rebalancing bilateral economic ties and he plans to join Trump for the trip to Shenzhen. Setting up a direct China channel for AI incident alerts and expects talks with China on handling AI models pre-release. US aim is to de-risk, not decouple from China.
Geopolitics: Iran
- Iran’s Rezaei said that any new US attack would be met with the targeting of “distant” US military bases as well, Al Mayadeen reported; will not remove any enriched nuclear material from Iran.
- Iran General Abdollahi warned the “US and the Zionist regime that previous blows were only the beginning of the events, and in case of any new calculation error, strikes far more deadly await them.” adding, “this is a credible threat…”.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry designated Argentina’s Navy and Air Force as terrorist organisations, while it stated the designation is retaliation for Argentina’s move against the IRGC.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said in letter to the UN Secretary General, UNSC President and IAEA chief that Iran condemns the US announcement of the Rewards for Justice program which offers USD 20mln for information regarding Iran’s nuclear programme.
- IRGC Rasulullah Commander said the production of missiles and UAV/drones did not stop even during the war and that they have surprises that must be displayed in the field, adds they have obtained several new technologies.
- IRGC Navy said “another offending oil tanker catches fire in the eastern Strait of Hormuz”. “This morning, an offending oil tanker caught fire in the unsafe and prohibited area east of the Strait of Hormuz after hitting a naval mine”.
- UKMTO announces it received a report of an incident involving a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, adds status of the crew, damage assessment and environmental impacts are unknown at this time.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent was moved to a military base in the wake of Iranian threats, according to NYT.
- The assessment is that Iran is expected to continue trying to carry out attacks against US military bases in Britain, while the US army continues to move planes and expensive assets between the bases, according to N12’s Assaf Rosenzweig.
- Iraq PM visited Iran, unofficially, after meeting US President Trump, Al Akhbar reported; sources suggest that the Iraq PM carried a US proposal “confirming that the visit did not lead to results satisfying the US”.
- US Ambassador to China said President Trump is open to nuclear talks with Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi, adds US is concerned about indirect benefit from China in Iran war, and US is not getting enough cooperation from China on Iran.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Trilateral talks on a settlement to the Ukraine conflict have concluded in Abu Dhabi, according to Interfax
- Russia’s Kremlin said that there are no plans for contacts with the EU delegation in Abu Dhabi and there have been no such meetings; there’s effectively no relation between Russia and the EU.
- In ongoing talks, Ukraine insists Russia end fighting before discussing European security, AFP reported citing sources.
- Russia said it hits a cargo vessel in the Black Sea and three Ukraine power substations.
- Russia local governor said drones hit the Ust-Luga Baltic seaports in Russia’s Leningrad region.
- Russia shot down 92 drones over Leningrad region early on Wednesday.
Geopolitics: Other
- Houthi armed forces say that they have just successfully intercepted a Saudi F-15 fighter jet formation, preventing it from entering the airspace.
- Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said two Chinese PLA aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait median line into Taiwan’s southwest air defence identification zone.
- Latvia Armed Forces said that an earlier threat in Latvian airspace has ended.
Crypto
- Bitcoin is a little lower this morning and trades around USD 73.6k, with Ethereum also moving lower towards the USD 2k mark.
US Event Calendar
- 7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended Nov. 6), est. n/a, prior
- US bond market closed for Veterans Day (SIFMA); stock markets open
Central Bank Speakers
- No Fed speakers scheduled
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Inflation was back on the agenda over the last 24 hours, as a strong US CPI print and hawkish Fed comments drove a major selloff for US Treasuries. In fact, the 2yr Treasury yield (+17.6bps) saw its biggest daily jump since April 2025, surging to 4.74%, and markets even priced a modest chance of a 50bp Fed hike in December. So it was a very rough day for rates, and that in turn put renewed pressure on equities, with the S&P 500 (-0.38%) pulling back as investors priced in faster hikes. To be fair, it wasn’t all bad news, and growing hopes for a resolution in the Middle East pushed Brent crude oil (-1.17%) to its lowest since August, closing at $91.49/bbl. Moreover, positive earnings from CoreWeave have helped equities recover, with S&P 500 futures up +0.65% this morning. But even so, the bigger concern remained that inflation was becoming more persistent and couldn’t just be blamed on a few specific categories.
That US CPI print drove the biggest moves of the day, with the monthly core CPI print for October above consensus at +0.30% (vs. +0.2% expected). Moreover, it was the third consecutive month with core CPI at +0.3%, and if you take those three months together, the annualised pace for core CPI is running at +3.75%. That’s the fastest pace on that measure since April 2024, so it made it increasingly difficult to dismiss this as a blip. Meanwhile, the headline CPI numbers were faster still, with monthly headline CPI at +0.35% (vs. +0.3% expected), with the 3-month annualised pace at +5.72%. Bear in mind there aren’t year-on-year numbers in this report, because last year’s CPI print didn’t happen because of a government shutdown. But overall, there was little respite in the release, with broad-based gains across the consumer basket.
The CPI release got more attention than usual, partly because of comments from Fed Governor Waller a few hours beforehand. He was speaking in London, where he said that “if the October CPI inflation data out later today are similar to the past two monthly readings – with core CPI inflation around 0.3 percent or even higher”, then he thought “a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting”. Indeed, he also said that in those circumstances, a 25bp hike “would put our credibility at risk”. So when the core CPI print was confirmed at 0.3%, that led to mounting speculation about a larger rate hike.
That impact was clear from market pricing, with the amount of hikes for a December up from 21.0bps on Monday to 27.7bps by last night’s close, and 28.5bps this morning. So in other words, a 25bp hike is fully priced in, with futures also pricing in a 14% chance of a larger 50bp move. But it wasn’t just December that was affected, with markets pricing in a more hawkish profile further out the curve as well. Indeed, the rate priced in for the September 2027 meeting was up +22.3bps yesterday, so investors had priced in almost a full additional rate hike to next year’s path. Meanwhile, DB’s own US economists have updated their Fed view, adding a rate hike in January to their profile. So they now expect three more 25bp hikes at the next three meetings (Dec, Jan and March), and you can read their latest update here.
For markets, the clearest impact could be seen in US Treasuries, with yields surging across the curve. In fact, the 2yr Treasury yield (+17.6bps) saw its biggest daily jump since April 2025, the day that Trump paused his Liberation Day tariffs. And those moves extended to longer maturities, with the 10yr yield (+10.8bps) closing back at 4.99%, its highest level in nearly two weeks. Meanwhile, Fed speakers later in the session added to that momentum. For instance, Dallas Fed President Logan said in a speech that “the FOMC needs to implement at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases”, and Kansas City Fed President Schmid said that the current policy rate was “fairly accommodative”. Moreover, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee described the print as “borderline disturbing”.
With markets pricing in a more hawkish Fed, that also drove a fresh selloff in US equities, though this did ease a bit as the session went on. Tech stocks underperformed, with a -5.47% drop in Nvidia leading the Nasdaq (-0.74%) and the Mag-7 (-0.83%) to larger declines than the S&P 500 (-0.38%). The broader equity mood was a bit better, however, with almost half of the S&P 500’s constituents higher on the day, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 only down -0.02%. After the close, we then heard from CoreWeave, which delivered a Q3 revenue beat ($3.66bn vs $3.56bn est.) and upgraded its full-year revenue guidance ($13.0-13.3bn vs $12.9bn est.). So that meant its shares rose by over +7% in after-hours trading, easing some of the doubt around the AI cycle. And in turn, that’s boosted optimism more broadly, with Nasdaq 100 futures up +1.40% this morning, and those on the S&P 500 up +0.65%.
As all that was happening, oil prices continued to fall, as hopes continued to rise for some kind of diplomatic resolution in the US-Iran conflict. There wasn’t a single headline driving that, but several comments have pointed away from further strikes, with Trump saying on Monday that “We’re just keeping it the status quo, and we’re doing that really at the behest of countries that are their neighbors”. So with fears of an escalation receding, that helped Brent crude oil (-1.17%) fall to $91.49/bbl by the close, its lowest since August. And longer-dated futures also moved lower, with the 12-month Brent future (-1.68%) at a two-month low of $77.64/bbl.
Overnight in Asia, that renewed optimism around the AI trade has boosted equities across the region, with the KOSPI (+2.27%) and the Nikkei (+1.33%) posting strong gains. Moreover, the latest data showed South Korea’s unemployment rate unexpectedly falling to a 3-year low of 2.5% in October (vs. 2.6% expected). However, there’s been a weaker performance elsewhere in Asia, with the CSI 300 (+0.02%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.02%) seeing little movement, whilst the Hang Seng is down -0.83%. Otherwise, the hawkish repricing after the US CPI print has led to a fresh bond selloff in numerous countries. For instance, Japan’s 10yr yields are up +10.3bps this morning to 2.78%, while 10yr yields in Australia (+5.6bps) and New Zealand (+6.8bps) are also higher.
Earlier in Europe, there was a major selloff for sovereign bonds too, although not quite as big as in the US. For instance, yields on 10yr bunds (+5.5bps), OATs (+7.0bps) and BTPs (+7.4bps) all saw a sharp increase. And similarly to the US, investors priced in a more hawkish ECB path for the months ahead as well. For instance, market pricing for a December hike rose from 83% on Monday to 92% by the close. And looking further out, the number of hikes priced in by the June 2027 meeting rose +10.9bps on the day to 58bps. For equities, there was a much more resilient performance in Europe, although that partly reflected a catchup to the rally late in the US session the previous day. So the STOXX 600 (+0.27%) moved higher, alongside the DAX (+0.31%) and the CAC 40 (+0.55%).
Looking at the day ahead now, it’ll be a quieter one, with US bond markets closed for Veterans Day. Central bank speakers will include ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Cipollone, Kazaks and Nagel. Otherwise, data releases include Italian industrial production for September.
1 b European opening report
Hawkish Iran rhetoric spurs a bid in crude benchmarks; tech outperforms following strong CoreWeave earnings – Newsquawk US Market Open
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 05:57 AM
- Qatar says it has secured “at least two weeks” for diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran, though significant differences remain.
- Iran’s Rezaei said that any new US attack would be met with the targeting of “distant” US military bases as well, Al Mayadeen reports. Added that they will not remove any enriched nuclear material from Iran. Brent Jan’27 +1.9%.
- European bourses are broadly firmer; NQ outperforms, with renewed optimism in the tech sector following strong CoreWeave results.
- DXY is firmer building on recent advances; CHF underperforms a touch.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese PPI (Oct), OPEC MOMR.
SNAPSHOT
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LOOKING AHEAD
- Holiday: US Veterans Day; Canadian Remembrance Day.
- Highlights include Japanese PPI (Oct), OPEC MOMR.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) are entirely in the green, building on the prior day’s advances. Sentiment remains firmer after trilateral talks between US-Russia-Ukraine, and with mediation efforts between US-Iran also helping. However, benchmarks are off best levels after Iran’s Secretary of Supreme National Security Council warned that any new US attack would be met with the targeting of “distant” US military bases as well. He added that they will not remove any enriched nuclear material from Iran.
- European sectors hold a strong positive bias. Tech is the clear outperformer, taking lead from strong performance in the AI/tech space overnight, following on from strong CoreWeave earnings (detailed below). The KOSPI closed with gains of 2.6%, with SK Hynix (+5.3%) and Samsung Electronics (+3.6%) both moving off recent lows. Elsewhere, Basic Resources and Energy complete the top three. To the downside resides Food Beverage & Tobacco, albeit losses are only modest.
- Key Movers: Alcon (-5.6%, decent results but tightened 2026 outlook), Brenntag (-3.4%, Q3 EBITDA missed consensus), Siemens Energy (+8.4%, Net, Revenue & Profit beat, Orders miss. Increasing buyback and dividend), RWE (+0.8%, adj. EBITDA and Net Income higher Y/Y. FY Net Income seen at the upper end of the range).
- US equity futures are broadly firmer this morning, with outperformance in the NQ after CoreWeave brings some optimism back to the tech sector.
- CoreWeave (CRWV) shares +11% pre-market following stronger than expected quarterly revenue and profits, alongside upgraded FY guidance and a growing order backlog; the release highlighted robust AI infrastructure demand.
FX
- Snapshot: G10s are mostly lower against the USD. The Aussie fares a bit better vs peers. The Swiss Franc is the laggard today, potentially thanks to the positive risk tone, but this narrative has not been seen in the JPY.
- DXY is slightly firmer this morning and currently holds towards the upper end of a 102.26-102.51 range. Initial action saw the index take a breather from the hefty gains seen in the prior session following hawkish Fed speak and a hotter-than-expected US CPI report. However, the strength has since returned; DXY now trades above the peaks made in the prior session (102.41); a firm breach above 102.50 will see the index head towards the 14 Oct high at 102.94.
- US-specific newsflow will likely be light for today, with the region observing Veterans Day (only US bond cash trade is shut). Focus therefore will be on the geopolitical situation, on both the Ukraine-Russia and Iran-US fronts. For the former, trilateral talks have concluded, with updates expected in the coming few days as to whether any progress has been made. The US-Iran situation is a little more complicated as mediation efforts continue, but US/Iranian officials appear to be pushing back on reports of potential concessions. Any progress will be USD-negative, and could see the index return back towards its 21-DMA at 101.94.
- Elsewhere, EUR/USD is under modest selling pressure, and largely moving at the whim of the USD. It currently holds within a 1.1139 to 1.1170 range, and towards the lows seen last week. ECB speak today came via Nagel, who spoke solely on the German situation; he mentioned that the German recovery was stronger than forecast, adding that growth is likely to accelerate in Q4. Focus ahead will be on ECB President Lagarde.
- Attention remains on USD/JPY, with the pair sitting just under the 159.00 mark; the high for the day (158.98) near-enough coincides with its 100-DMA. The latest US CPI saw the pair jump to elevated levels, amidst widening yield differentials; it won’t be a surprise to see some jawboning from Japanese officials in the near-term. Overnight, PM Takaichi offered some confidence building remarks by suggesting that she will not pursue fiscal policies that will lead to excessive inflation.
- SNB’s Schlegel says that they are ready to be active in FX markets.
FIXED INCOME
- A contained start for fixed income, rebounding slightly from Tuesday’s bearish action on US CPI and Fed speak, but with upside this morning capped as energy has an upward bias and as conditions are relatively light on account of it being Veterans Day.
- Nonetheless, USTs are lower by a handful of ticks, in 106-00 to 106-06 confines, and as such a full point off the pre-Waller opening levels on Tuesday. Fed speak since has largely been on the hawkish side of things, with the unsurprising exception of Bowman, but not to the same 50bps extent as Waller suggested.
- PPI on Friday before PCE later in the month are the main scheduled points to watch for indications on the December decision. But a hike is seemingly cemented and while there is at most about a 10% implied probability for a 50bps move, that scenario is very much an outlier.
- Bunds pared initial upside following hawkish rhetoric from an Iranian official, which spurred some strength in the energy complex. (See geopolitical section for details). Bunds currently hold within a 122.46 to 122.80 range. The European docket is light. No move earlier to final German CPI which was unrevised.
- Gilts opened on the front foot, again, unwinding some of the pressure on Tuesday. However, as with EGBs, UK paper succumbed to energy-led selling pressure. Specifics are light, domestic focus on the PM’s 10yr plan and the suggestion it may underwhelm expectations from within the Labour party itself.
- China is set to issue up to USD 2bln of dollar-denominated bonds in Hong Kong.
- Australia sold AUD 1bln in 5.00% May 2038 bonds, average yield 5.0982%, and a bid to cover 3.10.
- UK sells GBP 1bln 0.125% 2028 Gilt via tender: b/c 3.94x (prev. 3.76x), average yield 4.185% (prev. 4.272%)
- Germany sells EUR 1.931bln vs exp. EUR 2.5bln 3.40% 2047 and 2.90% 2056 Bunds.
COMMODITIES
- Initially, crude was firmer, but only modestly so. Focus on Qatar saying it has secured “at least two weeks” for diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran, though significant differences remain. Further, there was pushback from Iranian officials on this, saying claims of US negotiations and a Qatar meeting are false.
- At first, this kept crude around USD 92.00/bbl for Brent Jan’27, bid but well within and at the lower-end of ranges from the last two weeks, when a near USD 115/bbl peak printed. Thereafter, in a belated reaction to commentary from Iran’s Rezaei that any new US attack would be met with the targeting of “distant” US military bases and that they won’t be removing any enriched material, further strength was seen. This helped Brent to form a fresh peak, before then moving higher once again following reports that two tankers hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent Jan’27 currently sits at highs of USD 93.51/bbl.
- Ahead, we now await any signs of progress, or not, from the Qatari side, ahead of the potential meeting including Iranian officials and US VP Vance next week. Note, Treasury Secretary Bessent was relocated after Iranian threats, and while there has been no suggestion of this thus far, it is plausible that such threats could derail the Vance visit.
- Dutch TTF was leading the space before the latest Middle East reporting, and continues to do so. Currently, holding at EUR 87/MWh. Potentially driven by the lack of significant progress on the Russia-Ukraine front. Russia’s Kremlin has described EU relations as non-existent, with no intention to communicate with the bloc in Abu Dhabi. Points that, alongside some European forecasts turning colder for next week, have supported European gas.
- XAU is recovering from its CPI/Waller/Fed induced pressure on Tuesday. However, the yellow metal is struggling to make much upside amid the strong risk tone and USD strength. Holding around USD 4050/oz, and some USD 100/oz shy of levels earlier in the week.
- Base peers are bid, following the risk tone higher, though the recent USD move is potentially capping somewhat. 3M LME Copper firmer by near 1% on the day.
- Norway’s Gassco reported unplanned outage of 5.1 mcm/day at Troll field on November 11th-12th.
- US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -9.8mln (exp. -1.0mln), Gasoline +2.7mln, Distillate -8.0mln, Cushing +5.1mln.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- US Ambassador to China Perdue said NVIDIA (NVDA) affair shows that US should stay diligent on China, adds China said it’s to firmly safeguard multilateral trading system, and will uphold most favoured nation treatment. China’s licensing regime for magnets is hugely escalatory. US is not getting the flow of magnets that it wants from China. US and China militaries are beginning to talk again.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will meet next week in Shenzhen and then again in Miami, while he repeated call for rebalancing bilateral economic ties and he plans to join Trump for the trip to Shenzhen. Setting up a direct China channel for AI incident alerts and expects talks with China on handling AI models pre-release. US aim is to de-risk, not decouple from China.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- A widening divide has opened in Eurozone sovereign bond markets between highly indebted countries like France and Belgium and safer borrowers like Germany, according to FT.
- NIESR sees UK inflation to overshoot the Bank of England target for the next four years.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- Italian Industrial Production (Sep YY) -0.1% (Prev. 0.2%); Italian Industrial Production (Sep MM) 1.2% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. -1.2%).
- Swedish Household Consumption (Oct YY) 3.3% (Prev. 3.5%); Swedish Household Consumption (Oct MM) 1.20% (Prev. 1.10%).
- German CPI Final (Oct MM) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.6%); German CPI Final (Oct YY) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 3.3%).
- German HICP Final (Oct YY) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 3.3%); German HICP Final (Oct MM) -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.6%).
CENTRAL BANKS
- Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to deliver 25bps rate hikes in December and in March vs prior forecast of a hike in December this year.
- Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter) said on PBS NewsHour that CPI was bordering on disturbing and they have real issues on their hands, adds they are going to have to deal with that. Most troubling is that services inflation is not coming down. Inflation is both cost-side and demand-side driven. His fear is starting to see overall overheating prices of a whole bunch of things. At the same time, job market is steady and stable. Will have to come to terms with it if inflation stays persistent and it’s a major concern if inflation gets built into expectations. Everything is always on the table and we must get inflation down to the target.
- Fed’s Paulson (2026 voter) said Fed will move more aggressively if inflation landscape worsens, adds further gradual rate hikes are appropriate given high inflation and exact path of rate policy depends on how the economy evolves. Monetary policy needs to be somewhat restrictive. Gradual rate hikes have also given Fed officials space to gauge the impact and have given the economy time to adjust. CPI data showed inflation remains a problem. Supported Fed’s recent rate decisions. Underlying inflation is stuck between 2.5% and 3%. Fed has more work to do to lower inflation. The economy is stronger than expected and job market robust and stable. AI and energy impact on inflation are hard to gauge. Risks to the inflation outlook are high.
- Fed’s Bowman (voter) said the fact that inflation is not on a downward trend should give us pause, adds need to think about what pace and what timeline to address it. The Fed cut rates gradually last year and then paused before resuming, in same way that the Fed may work to address inflation in coming months. Inflation expectations an important data point, but not necessarily controlling how she thinks about things. Inflation expectations very well anchored. Shifting her focus to inflation. Would need to see AI and Middle East risks abate before could be confident inflation will come down next year.
- ECB’s Nagel said German recovery stronger than forecast, adding that growth is likely to accelerate in Q4.
- PBoC injected CNY 187bln via overnight reverse repos with the rate at 1.25%.
- PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7191 vs exp. 6.6855 (prev. 6.7167).
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US judge said President Trump’s defamation lawsuit against the BBC can proceed.
- US House backed motion that derails the impeachment of Defense Secretary Hegseth.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Trilateral talks on a settlement to the Ukraine conflict have concluded in Abu Dhabi, according to Interfax
- Russia’s Kremlin said that there are no plans for contacts with the EU delegation in Abu Dhabi and there have been no such meetings; there’s effectively no relation between Russia and the EU.
- In ongoing talks, Ukraine insists Russia end fighting before discussing European security, AFP reported citing sources.
- Russia said it hits a cargo vessel in the Black Sea and three Ukraine power substations.
- Russia local governor said drones hit the Ust-Luga Baltic seaports in Russia’s Leningrad region.
- Russia shot down 92 drones over Leningrad region early on Wednesday.
US-IRAN
- Iran’s Rezaei said that any new US attack would be met with the targeting of “distant” US military bases as well, Al Mayadeen reported; will not remove any enriched nuclear material from Iran.
- Iran General Abdollahi warned the “US and the Zionist regime that previous blows were only the beginning of the events, and in case of any new calculation error, strikes far more deadly await them.” adding, “this is a credible threat…”.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry designated Argentina’s Navy and Air Force as terrorist organisations, while it stated the designation is retaliation for Argentina’s move against the IRGC.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said in letter to the UN Secretary General, UNSC President and IAEA chief that Iran condemns the US announcement of the Rewards for Justice program which offers USD 20mln for information regarding Iran’s nuclear programme.
- IRGC Rasulullah Commander said the production of missiles and UAV/drones did not stop even during the war and that they have surprises that must be displayed in the field, adds they have obtained several new technologies.
- IRGC Navy said “another offending oil tanker catches fire in the eastern Strait of Hormuz”. “This morning, an offending oil tanker caught fire in the unsafe and prohibited area east of the Strait of Hormuz after hitting a naval mine”.
- UKMTO announces it received a report of an incident involving a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, adds status of the crew, damage assessment and environmental impacts are unknown at this time.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent was moved to a military base in the wake of Iranian threats, according to NYT.
- The assessment is that Iran is expected to continue trying to carry out attacks against US military bases in Britain, while the US army continues to move planes and expensive assets between the bases, according to N12’s Assaf Rosenzweig.
- Iraq PM visited Iran, unofficially, after meeting US President Trump, Al Akhbar reported; sources suggest that the Iraq PM carried a US proposal “confirming that the visit did not lead to results satisfying the US”.
- US Ambassador to China said President Trump is open to nuclear talks with Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi, adds US is concerned about indirect benefit from China in Iran war, and US is not getting enough cooperation from China on Iran.
OTHERS
- Houthi armed forces say that they have just successfully intercepted a Saudi F-15 fighter jet formation, preventing it from entering the airspace.
- Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said two Chinese PLA aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait median line into Taiwan’s southwest air defence identification zone.
- Latvia Armed Forces said that an earlier threat in Latvian airspace has ended.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is a little lower this morning and trades around USD 73.6k, with Ethereum also moving lower towards the USD 2k mark.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as the region mostly shrugged off the subdued handover from Wall St, where all major indices were pressured as the dollar and yields gained on hawkish Fed rhetoric and hotter-than-expected CPI data. The inflation numbers and Fed speak boosted hawkish rate hike bets, with money markets fully pricing in a December rate hike and about a 10% probability for a greater 50bps move.
- ASX 200 eked out slight gains in range-bound trade as the rebound in tech was counterbalanced by losses in the top-weighted financial sector following earnings from Australia’s largest lender, CBA, despite reporting an 8% increase in Q1 unaudited net profit.
- Nikkei 225 continued to benefit alongside the global tech recovery despite weakness in SoftBank shares after it posted a H1 net loss of JPY 768bln.
- KOSPI clawed back initial losses and outperformed its regional peers, while the Korea Exchange activated a sidecar on the Kosdaq amid the broad resurgence.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed, with the Hong Kong benchmark pressured amid weakness in biotech and EV makers, while the mainland gradually recouped early losses to trade in the green.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China October vehicle sales fell by 9.2% Y/Y vs prev. decline of 8.4% in September.
- China’s NDRC said it will boost financial risk control for BRI projects and will expand BRI cooperation in emerging sectors.
- Japanese PM Takaichi said no intention of pursuing fiscal policies that would lead to excessive inflation and she expects the BoJ to conduct appropriate monetary policy to sustainably and stably hit its 2% price target.
- South Korea will extend fuel tax cuts for two months to end-January.
- PBoC Q3 Monetary Policy Implementation report says the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Chinese Vehicle Sales (Oct YY) -9.2% (Prev. -8.4%).
- Japanese Machine Tool Orders (Oct YY) 42.5% (Prev. 60.4%).
- Japanese Reuters Tankan Index (Nov) 27 (Prev. 22).
- Australian Home Loans Value QQ (Q3) -15.5% vs Exp. -8.0% (Prev. -5.2%); Australian Investment Lending for Homes (Q3) -32.3% (Prev. -10.2%); Australian Owner Occupied Loan Value (Q3 QQ) -5.3% (Prev. -1.9%
1 c Asian opening report
Fed speak dominates the tape, Qatar appears to have secured two weeks for diplomatic efforts – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 02:18 AM
- Qatar says it has secured “at least two weeks” for diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran, though significant differences remain.
- Fed’s Bowman said there is still work to do, but the cost of additional tightening must be weighed. Paulson said further gradual hikes are appropriate. Goolsbee said inflation was borderline disturbing.
- APAC stocks were primarily firmer, shrugging off the Wall St handover where CPI and Fed speak weighed. European futures point to a firmer open, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.8%.
- DXY held onto Tuesday’s CPI/Fed driven gains. EUR/USD beneath 1.12, Cable below 1.34 and USD/JPY around 159.00.
- Fixed income was subdued on the above points, and as energy benchmarks found some modest reprieve amid continued Iranian pushback.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Final Inflation (Oct), Japanese PPI (Oct), OPEC MOMR, Speakers including ECB’s Cipollone & Lagarde, Supply from Germany & UK. Note, today is US Veterans Day.
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LOOKING AHEAD
- Holiday: US Veterans Day; Canadian Remembrance Day.
- Highlights include German Final Inflation (Oct), Japanese PPI (Oct), OPEC MOMR, Speakers including ECB’s Cipollone & Lagarde, Supply from Germany & UK.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
IRAN CONFLICT
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent was moved to a military base after Iranian threats, according to the NYT.
- Qatari PM Al Thani told G7 Foreign Ministers in Paris that Doha had secured ‘at least two weeks’ to pursue diplomatic efforts aimed at reaching an understanding between Washington and Tehran, although he also stated that significant differences remained between the two sides, with several key issues still unresolved, according to Jerusalem Post citing diplomatic sources.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said in a letter to the UN Secretary-General, UNSC President and IAEA chief that Iran condemned the US announcement of the Rewards for Justice programme, which offers USD 20mln for information regarding Iran’s nuclear programme, according to IRNA.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry designated Argentina’s Navy and Air Force as terrorist organisations, while it stated the designation was in retaliation for Argentina’s move against the IRGC.
- IRGC Rasulullah Commander said the production of missiles and UAV/drones did not stop even during the war and that they have surprises that must be displayed in the field, while he added that they have obtained several new technologies.
- Iran is expected to continue trying to carry out attacks against US military bases in Britain, while the US army continues to move planes and expensive assets between the bases, according to an assessment cited by N12’s Assaf Rosenzweig.
- IRGC said the third oil tanker using an unauthorised route through the Strait of Hormuz exploded on Tuesday afternoon after hitting a naval mine, according to Tasnim. It also commented that following the destruction of US military radar and coastal navigation aid systems in the southern Strait of Hormuz, tankers were taking multiple risks by attempting to use the unauthorised route, where tankers had been hit by naval mines.
- UKMTO said it received a report of an incident involving a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the status of the crew, damage assessment and environmental impacts were unknown at the time.
- Syria is reportedly weighing sending troops to support Saudi Arabia’s war against the Houthis, according to the New York Times.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were lower, but closed off worst levels, with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 underperforming amid the hawkish Fed repricing, while Nvidia (NVDA) extended its recent losses amid reports surrounding CEO Jensen Huang’s affair with an alleged Chinese spy. Sectors were mixed, with Technology the laggard, while Financials and Consumer Discretionary outperformed. The main focus was the sharp hawkish repricing following Fed Governor Waller’s comments and the hotter-than-expected October CPI report, reigniting the debate around a potential 50bps Fed hike in December. Waller said further tightening is needed sooner rather than later and suggested a half-point hike may be warranted if October core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher. The subsequent report showed core CPI rising 0.3% M/M, above the 0.2% forecast, while headline CPI rose 0.4%, also above expectations. As such, money markets were pricing around 27.5bps of tightening in December, implying a fully priced 25bps hike and a 10% probability of a 50bps move. Fed’s Logan added to the hawkish rhetoric, calling for at least two further 25bps hikes, while Schmid described current policy as fairly accommodative. However, Bowman was more dovish than peers and stated there is still more work to do, but financial conditions have tightened, and the Fed must weigh the costs of additional policy tightening.
- SPX -0.36% at 7,523, NDX -0.60% at 27,750, DJI -0.29% at 52,237, RUT -0.65% at 2,822.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will meet next week in Shenzhen and then again in Miami, while he repeated his call for rebalancing bilateral economic ties and said he plans to join Trump for the trip to Shenzhen. Bessent also said the US was setting up a direct China channel for AI incident alerts and expects talks with China on handling AI models pre-release, adding that the US aim is to de-risk, not decouple, with China.
- US Ambassador to China Perdue said the Nvidia (NVDA) affair shows that the US should stay diligent on China, while he described China’s licensing regime for magnets as hugely escalatory and said the US was not getting the flow of magnets that it wants from China. Perdue also noted that the US and Chinese militaries are beginning to talk again, as well as noted that China said it will firmly safeguard the multilateral trading system and uphold the most favoured nation treatment.
- US Commerce Secretary Lutnick was sent a highly classified memo warning of Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Huang’s relationship with a suspected Chinese spy, according to multiple sources cited by Axios.
- A Chinese university with military ties purchased Nvidia (NVDA) H200 chips last month despite being on the US blacklist, according to reports citing procurement records.
- Canadian PM Carney said he had spoken briefly with US President Trump over the weekend and could meet him later this month at the Asian summits.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Bowman (voter) said persistent inflation and firming labour conditions suggest there is still work to do, while she added that financial conditions have tightened and the Fed must weigh the costs of additional policy tightening. Bowman stated that bringing inflation down remains a priority and that core PCE likely rose 3.3% in October on energy prices and AI-related demand. Furthermore, Bowman said the fact that inflation is not on a downward trend should give a pause and that officials need to think about the pace and timeline to address it, noting the Fed cut rates gradually last year and then paused before resuming, in the same way that it may work to address inflation in the coming months.
- Fed’s Paulson (2026 voter) said the Fed will move more aggressively if the inflation landscape worsens, adding that further gradual rate hikes are appropriate given high inflation and the exact path of policy depends on how the economy evolves. Paulson said monetary policy needs to be somewhat restrictive, CPI data showed inflation remains a problem and underlying inflation is stuck between 2.5% and 3%. Furthermore, she stated the economy is stronger than expected with a robust and stable job market, while the impact of AI and energy on inflation is hard to gauge and risks to the inflation outlook are high.
- Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter) said on PBS NewsHour that CPI was bordering on disturbing and they have real issues on their hands that they are going to have to deal with. Goolsbee said the most troubling aspect is that services inflation is not coming down, with inflation both cost-side and demand-side driven, and he fears overall overheating in prices across a range of goods. He also stated the job market is steady and stable, that it would be a major concern if inflation gets built into expectations, and that everything is always on the table.
- Fed’s Schmid (2028 voter) said there are concerning trends in prices underneath the energy story, while he didn’t think the rate was restrictive last year and believes it is fairly accommodative today.
- WSJ’s Timiraos said that on the same day Fed’s Waller and Logan opened the door to faster hikes, Bowman struck a cautious note, saying the benefit of more tightening has to be carefully weighed against its costs given recent market developments.
- US House backed a motion that derails the impeachment of Defence Secretary Hegseth, while US President Trump posted on Truth Social that the Democrats’ attempt to impeach Secretary of War Hegseth had miserably failed.
- OpenAI has told investors that revenue jumped 50% to around USD 10bln in Q3, rebounding from a period of slower growth, while it reported a USD 567mln operating loss.
- Anthropic (ANT) unveiled office tools ahead of its IPO, rivalling Microsoft (MSFT), according to reports, while FT reported that Anthropic bankers are preparing to raise the IPO valuation to USD 1.5tln or above.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as the region mostly shrugged off the subdued handover from Wall St, where all major indices were pressured as the dollar and yields gained on hawkish Fed rhetoric and hotter-than-expected CPI data. The inflation numbers and Fed speak boosted hawkish rate hike bets, with money markets fully pricing in a December rate hike and about a 10% probability for a greater 50bps move.
- ASX 200 eked out slight gains in range-bound trade as the rebound in tech was counterbalanced by losses in the top-weighted financial sector following earnings from Australia’s largest lender, CBA, despite reporting an 8% increase in Q1 unaudited net profit.
- Nikkei 225 continued to benefit alongside the global tech recovery despite weakness in SoftBank shares after it posted a H1 net loss of JPY 768bln.
- KOSPI clawed back initial losses and outperformed its regional peers, while the Korea Exchange activated a sidecar on the Kosdaq amid the broad resurgence.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed, with the Hong Kong benchmark pressured amid weakness in biotech and EV makers, while the mainland gradually recouped early losses to trade in the green.
- US equity futures steadily rebounded from the prior day’s lacklustre performance.
- European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.8% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.6% on Tuesday.
FX
- DXY held on to the prior day’s notable gains, owing to hot inflation data and hawkish remarks from Fed’s Waller (voter). Fed’s Bowman (voter) said persistent inflation and firming labour conditions suggest there is still work to do, but added that financial conditions have tightened and the Fed must weigh the costs of additional policy tightening. Furthermore, Fed’s Paulson (2026 voter) noted that further gradual rate hikes are appropriate given high inflation, and Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter) suggested inflation was borderline disturbing and that they have real issues on their hands, while they are going to have to deal with it.
- EUR/USD lingered beneath the 1.1200 handle after suffering against the firmer buck and with comments from ECB officials doing little to spur the currency, despite Lane stating that it would be prudent to hike in December if incoming data do not materially change the outlook and with both Kazaks and Nagel suggesting the likelihood of a December rate hike.
- GBP/USD remained at sub-1.3400 territory following the prior day’s slide owing to the dollar strength, while it was reported that PM Burnham won’t accept a dynamic alignment of financial services regulations with the EU, backing the City of London’s independence from Brussels and showing the limits of his ambitions for closer ties.
- USD/JPY kept afloat and approached just shy of the 159.00 level in the aftermath of the firmer-than-expected US CPI data and hawkish Fed speak.
- Antipodeans partially nursed some of the recent losses, although the rebound was limited in the absence of any major pertinent drivers and with a lack of tier-1 data from the region.
- PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7191 vs exp. 6.6855 (prev. 6.7167).
- BoC October Meeting Minutes stated regarding the path forward that the BoC recognised uncertainty did not mean inaction, but they would need to proceed carefully, while they agreed that monetary policy can prevent energy prices from leading to generalised inflation and acknowledged that inflation expectations may have become more sensitive to recent price changes.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures remained subdued as participants digested the recent hawkish Fed rhetoric and firmer-than-expected CPI data, which boosted rate hike bets, with money markets fully pricing in a hike in December of at least 25bps and an outside chance for a greater 50bps move.
- Bund futures were subdued after retreating yesterday and with demand not helped by looming supply.
- 10yr JGB futures tracked the downside in global peers, with demand not helped by a rebound in Japanese stocks and the absence of any tier-1 data releases.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures found some slight reprieve from the recent selling pressure after declining again yesterday amid continued optimism regarding US-Iran peace talks after a report that claimed Iran agreed to US demands to reduce its highly enriched uranium levels, although there was some pushback from Iran’s top security official Rezaei, who stated that US claims of ongoing Iran negotiations and a Qatar meeting are false.
- EIA STEO (November 2026): 2026 World Oil Demand: 102.4mln bpd (prev. 102.4mln bpd); 2027 104.4mln bpd (prev. 104.6mln bpd), while it saw World Oil Production in 2026 at 101.7mln bpd (prev. 101.1mln bpd) and in 2027 at 108.4mln bpd (prev. 109.6mln bpd).
- US official said Russian diesel was on the water and heading to market, adding that this would ease fuel prices for Americans.
- Iranian Deputy Oil Minister said the SPD14D platform at South Pars caught fire, but added that the situation was under control and the cause was being investigated.
- Spot gold gradually rebounded from the prior day’s trough but remained beneath the USD 4,100/oz level after sliding alongside the recent dollar strength and firmer-than-expected CPI data.
- Copper futures edged higher as the region ultimately shrugged off the downbeat mood.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin traded indecisively with prices oscillating through the USD 73,500 level during the session.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China’s NDRC said it will boost financial risk control for Belt and Road Initiative projects and will expand BRI cooperation in emerging sectors.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said he is very happy with recent US messages.
- Ukraine’s Foreign Minister said Ukraine was awaiting Russia’s response to its Black Sea ceasefire proposals and was not particularly optimistic about progress. Furthermore, he urged US Secretary of State Rubio to accelerate the delivery of air-defence interceptors amid Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.
- Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said it was too early to assess the negotiations in Abu Dhabi, while the talks in Abu Dhabi today will start at 08:00GMT/03:00EST.
- Russia shot down 92 drones over the Leningrad region early on Wednesday, while it was also reported that drones hit the Ust-Luga Baltic seaport in the region.
- European Council President Costa said in a letter to German Chancellor Merz that he would also make time for a broad discussion on Ukraine at the upcoming informal European Council in Dublin.
OTHER
- US Ambassador to China said President Trump is open to nuclear talks with Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi, adding that the US is concerned about China indirectly benefiting from the Iran war and is not getting enough cooperation from China on Iran.
- Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said two Chinese PLA aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait median line into Taiwan’s southwest air defence identification zone.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK PM Burnham won’t accept dynamic alignment of financial services regulations with the EU, backing the City of London’s independence from Brussels but nonetheless showing the limits of his ambitions for a much closer relationship, according to Bloomberg’s Wickham.
- NIESR sees UK inflation overshooting the Bank of England’s target for the next four years.
- ECB Chief Economist Lane said framework guidance is more effective than rate forward guidance when policy rates are away from the effective lower bound, while Lane warned of a high bar on directional forward guidance and stressed a very high premium on consensus, noting it would be difficult with dots, while he said it was important that the ECB has an instrument for multiple equilibria in the bond market. Lane also noted it was informative that underlying inflation hasn’t moved yet, which reflects the usual delayed response, adding that underlying inflation is a guide to one-year-ahead inflation. Furthermore, he said energy prices are already reversing and, if that continues, headline inflation could fall while underlying inflation climbs, adding that people should watch if inflation comes in stronger or weaker than projections.
2.NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA/
JAPAN//
CHINA
CHINA/USA/NVIDIA
GRAHAM SUMMERS….
| China Couldn’t Break the Chip Ban. So It Went After the King of Chips. |
| By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist |
| The United States is at war. Whether you like that or not does not change it, and pretending otherwise only opens you to your adversaries. I am not talking about Iran. That is the war you can see on television, and it will end with a ceasefire. The war I mean is with China, it has no front and no end date, and it is the one that decides the next decade. A central thesis of my work is that we are running a wartime economy for exactly this reason. It is not a black and white war with declarations and battle lines. It is a gray-zone war, and in a gray-zone war the prize is strategic assets: chips, critical minerals, shipping lanes, processing capacity, capital, and the people who control access to each of them.Strip away the tabloid coverage and the Nvidia story is the clearest example of that war you will see this year. Here is the record as it has been reported, in the order it happened. Alice Huang, a Chinese citizen also known as Huang Le, served as managing director of Megaspeed, a Singapore data center operator. Megaspeed bought roughly $2 billion of Nvidia processors for facilities in Malaysia and Indonesia serving Chinese customers. When U.S. officials inspected a Megaspeed site in Malaysia, they reportedly found the Nvidia equipment still in its boxes, uninstalled. That is what onward shipment looks like. Megaspeed was the business side. The intelligence side is the part that matters. According to the reporting, U.S. intelligence identified Alice Huang through surveillance in 2025 and concluded she had been recruited by China’s Ministry of State Security. Her assignments were to gather information and to push for advanced American chips to be made available in China. In the course of that surveillance, Jensen Huang, the founder and chief executive of Nvidia, turned up in intercepted communications with her. The President was briefed. Huang was not. He was never given a defensive briefing, the routine warning the government gives an American who has been targeted by a foreign service. The story broke on October 29, when a major newspaper reported the intelligence findings. Nvidia’s first response was that Huang’s interactions with her were not unusual. Over the following week the reporting hardened. An intelligence memo described the relationship as romantic, and it had gone on for years. On November 8, in a memo to employees, Huang acknowledged an extramarital affair, apologized, and said he would cooperate fully. The same day Nvidia’s board announced an independent investigation led by outside counsel. The board said it had no reason to believe national security or company secrets had been compromised and expressed confidence in his leadership. He continues to run the company during the review. Washington moved faster than the board. The Commerce Department’s probe of Megaspeed has been taken over by the Justice Department. Senators Warren and Banks, one from each party, have asked Commerce whether Huang’s 2025 statements about chip diversion misled regulators. House committee chairs want him in a closed-door briefing on November 18. None of this has been proven in court. China calls the claims unsubstantiated. But the shape of the operation is not in dispute, and the shape is the point. |
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| Think about what China was up against. Since 2022 the United States has used advanced AI chips as its primary economic weapon against Beijing. The chips are designed in California, made in Taiwan, and sold by one company, so the chokepoint was total. The best technology-side answer China could produce was a smuggling network, and the Justice Department has been rolling those up one indictment at a time. So China stopped attacking the technology and went after the one input the export regime could not control: the people. The most valuable person in that system was the chief executive who had become the loudest voice in Washington for loosening the controls. Huang lobbied for H20 sales and struck the deal under which Nvidia paid the Treasury 15% of its China chip revenue for export licenses. He pushed for H200 sales to Chinese customers. He traveled with the U.S. delegation to Beijing in May and was in the room when Xi visited in September. For two years, no single private citizen did more to argue that American chips belonged in China. And for most of those two years, according to the reporting, he was in a relationship with a woman U.S. intelligence believed was working for Beijing. Nobody warned him. The lobbying continued. If the reporting holds, Beijing did not need to steal a design. It needed the man who negotiates chip access to the Chinese market to want what Beijing wanted, and it needed him to be arguing for it inside the White House. Whether any secret changed hands is almost beside the point. The target was his judgment, and his judgment was shaping American policy. This is what gray-zone war looks like. Nobody declares anything. No missile is fired. Each side maneuvers for control of the assets the other cannot do without, using whatever tool works, and the tools include tariffs, export rules, equity stakes, sanctions, and intelligence services. Seen that way, the Nvidia story is a campaign. The chip chokepoint was the strategic asset the U.S. believed it controlled completely, and the Ministry of State Security went after it the way an intelligence service goes after anything: by finding the seam. A seam is the joint where two parts of a defense meet, the one spot the designers never thought to armor because they were busy armoring everything else. Here the export controls covered the chips, the fabs, and the shipping routes, and left the private life of the man who argued chip policy wide open. The seam was human, and no export rule can patch it. In a gray-zone war the most valuable targets are not factories. They are the people who decide what the factories are allowed to sell, and to whom. Last week the rest of the market found out what the people who study this for a living already knew. And it may have toppled the king. Nvidia’s board has expressed confidence in Huang, and he may survive the review. But the version of Jensen Huang that mattered to Beijing, the one who could walk into the Oval Office and win an argument about export controls, is gone regardless of what the investigation finds. No administration can now be seen taking his advice on China. Every statement he made about diversion in 2025 is going to be re-read. Congress is going to tighten the rules whether or not he is cleared, because tightening them is now the only politically safe position in both parties. Nvidia, which earned nothing from China this year, is not going to earn anything from China for years. Here is what that means for your money. First, export controls get tighter, and the enforcement moves downstream. The Southeast Asian data center hubs that have been the back door for Chinese demand, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia, are going to face end-use verification, licensing, and country-specific limits. Any company whose growth story runs through leasing GPUs to Chinese customers from Kuala Lumpur has a problem. Second, the sovereign compute trade gets pulled forward. If chips can be compromised through the people who sell them, the answer governments will reach for is capacity they control: domestic data centers, allied-only supply chains, and the Pentagon as the anchor customer. That is the third phase of the wartime economy I have been describing, and it just acquired a national security justification that nobody in Washington will argue against. Third, the chokepoint strategy itself is going to be re-examined. A weapon that can be turned by one relationship is not as strong as the people wielding it believed. The U.S. is dependent on China for critical minerals processing, and China has now shown it will use the human seam. The companies building allied processing capacity outside China just became more important, not less. |
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| The market treated Nvidia’s drop on Monday as a scandal discount. Look closer and it is the first repricing of a chokepoint that turned out to have a door in it. The Chinese found the door before we did. You will not read this analysis anywhere else, and that is the point.Most financial newsletters are written by people who have never thought about how an intelligence service works, what a chokepoint is, or why a country would spend years cultivating one executive. They will tell you Nvidia is a buy on the dip or a sell on the scandal, because that is the only frame they have. They are reading the same headlines you are and guessing. I have spent over 20 years at the intersection of Wall Street and Washington. I coined the term the Everything Bubble in 2014, years before the term showed up in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and the Economist, and before the Treasury Secretary borrowed it for the title of his own essay. I wrote the book on it and the sequel on how it ends. The wartime economy, the gray-zone war, the chokepoints, the human seam: this is the framework I built, and it is the only one that explained last week before it happened. |
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
SPAIN/CANARY ISLANDS
‘Another Invasion’: More Illegals Have Landed On Spain’s Canary Islands Than All Last Year
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 04:40 AM
Authored by Remix News Staff via Remix News,
The Spanish Canary Islands have already recorded more irregular sea arrivals in 2026 than in all of 2025, with police reports indicating the archipelago could close the year above 30,000 people.
A sharp late-year acceleration, concentrated on the small island of El Hierro, has overwhelmed local services and drawn sharp criticism from regional leaders and right-leaning parties in Spain.
Numerous videos on social media have also documented the influx.
In 2025, the islands received 17,788 irregular migrants by sea for the entire year. By Nov. 7, 2026, the overall total stood at 18,657, according to internal police documents received by Spanish media outlet La Gaceta and cross-checked against Ministry of the Interior data.
Canary Islands President Fernando Clavijo has stated there is currently “no foreign policy, no migration policy and no protection of our border.”
He also added on X: “The Canary Islands need urgent answers to the migration situation we are experiencing, especially on El Hierro. Tomorrow we will present concrete measures to the extraordinary Interministerial Commission: increased healthcare capacity, activation of European emergency mechanisms and Frontex, appropriate transfers, and weekly coordination between government bodies. El Hierro cannot become a massive detention center.”
Of that figure, 13,327 landed in Spain by Oct. 31 and a further 5,330 landed in the first week of November alone, aboard 56 vessels. Updated regional government figures put arrivals from Nov. 1 to Nov. 9 at 6,665 people on 66 boats, a roughly 1,300 percent increase over the same period in 2025.
The pressure is most acute on El Hierro, an island with 12,000 residents. More than 9,000 migrants have arrived there in under two months, resulting in local authorities declaring a public emergency.
Vox leader Santiago Abascal wrote on X that El Hierro is facing a crisis. “The island of El Hierro is experiencing another invasion. 8,000 have arrived on an island with a population of 12,000. Sánchez and the Canary Islands government are only concerned with quickly dispersing the invaders throughout Spain,” he warned.
The boats arrive from various countries across the African coast, often carrying 150 to 270 people.
The surge reverses months of year-on-year declines that the Spanish government had promoted as evidence of improved cooperation with source countries in Africa.
Up until mid-August, the number of migrants had been running 60 percent below 2025 levels, with the increase tied to Morocco’s closure of the northern land border at Ceuta in late July. As a result, pressure shifted back to the Atlantic route.
Nationally, illegal migrants arriving in Spain are at 32,942 through Oct. 31, 2026. This is already higher than the full-year 2025 number of 36,775, but only once the early-November Canary Island numbers are added. In reality, the numbers are far larger, as the Ceuta land border crossing that dominated international headlines had not been counted by the Interior Ministry in order to hide the true failure of Spanish authorities to secure the border. Vice President Manolo Domínguez also said the situation was an emergency and described it as a “silent invasion,” criticizing what he called complete neglect by the central government in tackling smuggling networks and saving lives.
END
EU
EU/RUSSIA
EU Approves First Military Mission Presence On Ukrainian Soil: ‘Make No Secret Of It’
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 05:20 AM
The European Council has announced that it is sending EU military personnel directly to Ukraine as part of its ongoing train and advise mission.
However, whereas this program – called the EU Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine (EUMAM) – previously only took place outside of Ukraine, it will now be extended to Ukrainian territory.
In a Monday press release, the Council confirmed that it is extending the mandate of the EUMAM until November 15, 2028, with a budget of nearly 300 million (or $334 million) – but added this huge new development:
“The Council also decided to establish a presence in Ukraine to ensure direct and effective coordination with the Ukrainian military authorities,“ the press release from Brussels said.
This is a huge provocation aimed at Russia, given that Moscow’s position has long been that European soldiers would be fair game for Russian strikes.
While it’s believed that Western forces and certainly intelligence officers been on the ground throughout the conflict, especially French forces, this has never been done in an official and public capacity.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov addressed this change at a press conference Tuesday while speaking from Abu Dhabi at the trilateral Russia-Ukraine-US talks:
“Europe’s plan is quite simple, and they make no secret of it: as soon as a ceasefire is reached, they intend to move ‘stabilization forces’ into the territory controlled by the Kiev regime.”
Indeed it seems Brussels is trying to create leverage for inself by being more directly ‘involved’ on the ground in Ukraine.
Already the EUMAM Ukraine program has boasted of training more than 100,000 soldiers since it was begun in October 2022.
But this has been done in external countries like main host nations Germany, Poland, or else Denmark – the latter where pilots have been trained. Other host training partners have been Britain and the United States, with bases in Texas and Arizona also featuring fighter pilot training.
This new development could serve to hinder negotiations which are ongoing in Abu Dhabi, and the Kremlin representatives are certainly expected to make more noise about this. The EU has desperately been trying to get a seat at the table of the Trump-backed talks.
END
UK
Britain’s Grid Operator Just Paid £1.4MM/Hour For Gas Power To Keep Lights On As Wind Slumps
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 04:00 AM
On Monday evening, Britain’s grid operator paid the Langage gas power station near Plymouth the equivalent of £1.4 million an hour, according to market transparency data cited by the Telegraph, as low wind output ran into a third day.
The National Energy System Operator (Neso) was paying around £1,500 per megawatt hour to at least three gas plants to cover the evening peak, about 10 times the average. Langage, Rye House in Hertfordshire and Seabank near Bristol collected similar sums between 3:30pm and 5pm. At that rate, 90 minutes at Langage comes to roughly £2.1 million.
Neso issued an electricity margin notice at 7:17pm on Sunday for the 6am to 11am window on Monday, flagging a 1,388 MW shortfall against a 808 MW contingency requirement and asking generators to say what extra capacity they could bring. After a 4am review the shortfall was cut to about 500 MW, the Guardian reported, and the notice was withdrawn Monday morning. Neso called it “a routine and precautionary measure” and said, “This is not a warning of power cuts, there is no risk to customer electricity supplies.”
Notices like this have become far more common with seven issued so far this year, against one for the whole of 2025, the Telegraph reported. They were once reserved for cold winter evenings. One on Sept. 28 flagged a 1,400 MW shortfall between 4pm and 7pm that was later cut to 104 MW and cancelled, and another on Oct. 6 had the margin falling 1.88 GW.
A Neso spokesman said the number of notices “can vary significantly from year to year and there have been comparable periods of EMN use in the past,” calling them “a routine operational tool.”
Energy analyst Kathryn Porter, quoted by the Telegraph, said a notice for a Monday morning was “unusual.”
“EMNs normally cover the evening peak, not the morning,” she said. “The question is, what happens if the modest wind recovery forecast for tomorrow evening is delayed, or if demand is higher than forecast – given the size of Neso’s forecast errors, when margins are this thin there could be trouble.”
In fact, the bill for a bad day can run far higher than Monday’s.
When a margin notice hit in January 2025 with a 1,700 MW shortfall, Neso paid up to £5,750 per megawatt hour to the gas-fired Rye House and Connah’s Quay plants, and about £17 million went to gas responders through the balancing mechanism, Solar Power Portal reported. Octopus Energy founder Greg Jackson called it “another example of our malfunctioning energy system,” and the company urged Neso to “pay people, not power plants.”
Shadow Energy Secretary Andrew Bowie said: “With barely any wind, it’s gas keeping Britain’s lights on.
Yet Labour is now legislating to ban new North Sea oil and gas exploration licences.” He added: “We need gas, but Labour would rather we import it than produce our own.”
The Nuclear Industry Association’s Tom Greatrex used the episode to say “Britain cannot afford to lose its nuclear capacity.”
Neso’s own early outlook for this winter puts the de-rated margin at 5.5 GW, or 8.8% of peak demand, and expects “some tight days, mainly in mid and late January, that could require the use of system notices.”
END
UK
The “Black Sky” Plan & The “Be Ready” Campaign… What Kind Of Disaster Is The UK Urgently Preparing For?
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse Blog,
Is there something that they aren’t telling us? All of a sudden, governments all over the globe are instructing their citizens to stockpile food, water and other essential supplies. Why is there such a sense of urgency to do this in late 2026? What has changed? Without a doubt, conditions are far different than they were 12 months ago. It appears that the war with Iran will soon greatly escalate, the war in Ukraine just continues to intensify, a Super El Niño is causing global weather patterns to go nuts, European cities are being ravaged by seemingly endless riots, and we are simultaneously facing a global energy crisis, a global fertilizer crisis and a global food crisis. Chaos is erupting all around us, and the months ahead are almost certainly going to be even more chaotic.
But does this explain why governments throughout the world have suddenly decided that now is the time for everyone to go out and buy emergency supplies?
In the UK, the BBC just published a very long article that reveals details about their “Black Sky” doomsday plan…
In a major emergency, we are being told to hunker down and turn on an FM radio, as thousands did in Lancaster. This is why the BBC has its own Black Sky plan.
Only a small number of staff know the full details, but from what I have gleaned, about 100 people in the BBC will run a special emergency radio studio.
It will have secure lines of communication not dependent on the internet, and fuel, water and food to ensure it can operate without resupply for at least three days.
What kind of scenario are they anticipating that would make this “Black Sky” doomsday plan necessary?
Apparently it would include a loss of power and Internet, because they are planning to use radio transmission towers to keep the British public informed over FM radio…
The BBC’s broadcasts will be sent via radio transmission towers, isolated from the internet and equipped with tanks of between five and 40,000 litres (8,800 gallons) of diesel to keep their generators going for three days – FM radio is power hungry. The teams will be using satellite phones to keep in touch and if these stop working there are pre-agreed protocols and meet-up points.
Why FM? Because it works almost everywhere, even in a blackout or a crippling cyber-attack.
This “Black Sky” doomsday plan was revealed less than a month after the UK government’s “Be Ready” campaign was launched.
Starting on October 22nd, the UK government began instructing citizens to stockpile food, water and other emergency supplies…
The government’s new Be Ready campaign is advising the public to stock up on three day’s worth of supplies for use during severe weather or cyber-attacks, so help can be directed to the most vulnerable first.
In a concise, two-page document, it suggests people stock bottled water and non-perishable food for three days, a torch with spare batteries, a wind-up FM radio, a first aid kit and a copy of their passport. To stave off panic buying, it advises people to check their cupboards first and build up items gradually on regular shopping trips.
Apparently the “Be Ready” campaign has been very successful.
A co-owner of a prepping store in the UK was absolutely astounded by the number of orders that started coming in…
While there is no evidence the advice has triggered mass panic, the public is clearly responding. Jack Brown, who co-owns Sgt Prepper Shop, which stocks emergency food and survival tools, said he received a month’s worth of orders in the first 24 hours of the Be Ready campaign.
“I thought my phone was glitching or being hacked with the number of orders coming in,” he said.
I think that this is wonderful.
But what has prompted this dramatic change of tone by officials in the UK?
Are they concerned that cyberattacks could take down the power grid or the financial system?
In France, hackers just broke into a prominent bank and successfully got away with 133 million dollars…
French cooperative bank Crédit Mutuel Arkéa was targeted in a cyberattack that enabled fraudulent transactions of up to $133 million, forcing it to respond by suspending certain systems.
The bank says that the attacker used its own account to initiate transactions to other banking organizations, but customer assets remain unaffected.
Crédit Mutuel Arkéa is a major French banking group with more than 5.8 million members and 211.5 billion euros in assets.
Our financial institutions are under constant attack, and artificial intelligence is giving hackers more powerful tools that we have ever seen before.
Without a doubt, that is a very serious threat.
There is also the possibility that the war in the Middle East could soon get very serious.
If they are attacked, the Iranians have warned that they could actually start cutting undersea Internet cables, and apparently they are quite serious about this threat…
Ships linked to Iran looped, loitered and went dark over undersea internet cables in the Gulf of Oman in the weeks after Tehran threatened the region’s digital infrastructure, the Financial Times reported on Friday. One of them had been boarded by US Marines in May.
At least four vessels tracked by the maritime analytics firm Windward took unusual routes and lingered over cable corridors off Oman in October, the FT said. Three were tankers under US sanctions. The fourth was a small Iranian fishing boat with no known owner.
The ships sailed normally “until they reached a specific cable corridor, and only then slowed, looped, turned back, loitered or went dark,” Windward told the newspaper. That behavior “fits the profile of mapping the cable routes, or placing charges or mines on them while dark,” it said.
If Iran starts cutting undersea Internet cables, that could have serious implications for the entire global financial system.
Meanwhile, the war between Russia and Ukraine has reached a very dangerous stage, and there is a very real possibility that NATO could get directly involved.
Ominously, a major British news source has just published a very alarming article entitled “‘Every single Brit’ must prepare for WW3 conscription as major warning issued“…
Brits could face being called up to fight in a potential World War Three, with the “whole of the nation” warned to brace for conscription within six years. Security and intelligence expert Professor Anthony Glees delivered the stark warning amid growing concerns that Britain could become entangled in a wider conflict with Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
The University of Buckingham academic stated the “whole of the nation” should be prepared for the prospect of conscription, while urging the Government to begin recruiting volunteers.
Professor Glees said: “The UK Government should plan to sign up volunteers now and over the next three years and ‘the whole of the nation’ should prepare for conscription within six years unless Putin were defeated.”
Sadly, the truth is that we are in the midst of World War III right now, but most people are not calling it that yet.
War, famine, pestilence, cyberattacks, financial chaos and historic natural disasters are all in our future.
So it certainly makes sense to stockpile food, water and emergency supplies.
But I have a feeling that there is something that they aren’t telling us.
I don’t think that it is just a coincidence that governments all over the planet are suddenly telling their citizens to prepare for doomsday.
We live in such perilous times, and I am convinced that 2027 is going to be even more chaotic than 2026 has been.
END
UK/IRAN
Mo, Mo, & Mo: 3 Charged In Iran-Linked Plot Against British Airbase
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 09:15 AM
A longtime operative of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and Kata’ib Hizballah sitting in a New York jail used phone calls to his family in Iraq to pass coded messages to the men who allegedly orchestrated September’s plot against RAF Fairford, the British air base that housed US bombers, federal prosecutors say.
An eight-count superseding indictment unsealed Tuesday in Manhattan charges Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi, 32, a dual Iranian-Iraqi national; Mohsen Mohajeri, 48, an Iranian operative of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; and Mohammad Ali al-Hassani, 35, an Iraqi national, with terrorism offenses tied to nearly 20 attacks and attempted attacks across Europe and the United States on behalf of Kata’ib Hizballah and the IRGC.
Three days before the vans rolled toward Fairford, on or about Sept. 24, al-Saadi asked his family on a call from jail how “Ali” was doing, according to the Justice Department. Told that “Ali” had been moved to the “International Section,” al-Saadi allegedly instructed them to “give him money so we can do it.” Prosecutors identify “Ali” as al-Hassani.
“Anyone who plans a terrorist plot on a military base housing American servicemembers will be prosecuted by the United States government,” Attorney General Todd Blanche said.
Vans, fuel and fake decals
According to the indictment, al-Hassani and Mohajeri were both in Iran during the plot and worked through a network of contacts in Britain. On Aug. 22, al-Hassani allegedly paid one person to surveil the base’s perimeter and received videos of the area.
In September, he allegedly tasked and paid several people to buy vans and barrels of fuel, research large quantities of potassium chloride and other chemical accelerants, and buy metal objects that could serve as shrapnel. At his urging, they had custom decals made so the vans looked like they belonged to a fuel delivery business and a swimming pool supply company.
On Sept. 26, al-Hassani allegedly sent three vans, some later found to hold barrels of fuel, toward the base, staying in frequent contact with the drivers. At least two of them hit a security roadblock and were turned back, prosecutors say. British police recovered the three white vans in the early hours of Sept. 27 and arrested the occupants.
The US then pulled its B-1 bombers out of Fairford, and British prosecutors last month charged two men under the National Security Act with assisting Iranian intelligence. On Tuesday, as we reported, the Pentagon moved tankers out of a second British base, RAF Mildenhall.
“Our old work”
Al-Saadi was charged in May with planning and promoting about 18 attacks in Europe and attempting to bomb a synagogue in New York; he was arrested abroad on or about May 1. For roughly four months after his arrest, the Justice Department says, there were no further attacks attributable to the three men.
But from jail, prosecutors say, he kept talking about “work,” a term he regularly used for terrorist activity. In June and July calls with his mother and sister, he discussed Mohajeri under aliases including “Sayyid Abbas,” said he owed him money and asked them to pass messages along. On one call he asked his sister, “What are they doing about all our old work?” She allegedly replied: “it isn’t cancelled.”
Al-Saadi has pleaded not guilty to the earlier charges, and the Justice Department had already placed him under special administrative measures restricting his contacts to immediate family and lawyers, CNN reported from court records.
“Light it up like a Christmas tree”
The European attacks were claimed by Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiya, which prosecutors call a front for Kata’ib Hizballah. Of the 18 it claimed in spring 2026, seven were in the United Kingdom, more than any other European country, including arsons, explosives and the near-fatal stabbing of two Jewish men in London, one of them a dual US-British citizen.
Prosecutors say a video from about April 6 shows al-Hassani telling Mohajeri, in a room in Iraq with a map of London on a screen, “we need to get focused on London.” Six attacks in and around London followed about a week later.
On about April 17, the three men allegedly watched an attack live over FaceTime, projected on a large screen in front of the group’s logo, while al-Hassani told the attacker to “light one in your hand” and “throw the fourth one.” The next day, on a call with a man attacking a London synagogue, al-Hassani allegedly told him to “light it up like a Christmas tree” before he threw an improvised explosive device at the building.
“The threat presented by Iran and Iran-backed terrorist groups to America and our allies is not hypothetical – it is very real,” said US Attorney Jamie McDonald. The terrorist-organization support and terrorism-financing counts each carry up to 20 years in prison, and the attempted-terrorism and bombing-conspiracy counts up to life.
END
HUNGARY
WITCH HUNT!!
Hungary Detains Viktor Orban’s Brother On Human Trafficking Charges
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 03:20 AM
Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times,
Hungary has detained one of former Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s brothers during an investigation into the smuggling of illegal immigrants from Vietnam.
“Three out of the ex-ministers of Orban are already in custody,” Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar said on Monday in Berlin. “Already his brother today went to custody.”
Hungary’s National Asset Protection and Recovery Office (NVVH) said in a statement that it had detained four people and searched several homes in Budapest and the nearby towns of Fot and Dunakeszi. However, it did not name any of them.
Orban responded on social media, saying it was part of a “witch hunt” against him.
“Today, the government should be held to account before the National Security Committee over its handling of the communist-era secret police archives,” Orban wrote on X on Monday.
“However, instead of facing scrutiny, it is using political persecution to divert attention.
“What is happening in Hungary is not accountability. It is a political witch hunt.
“The aim of this dirty political game is to eliminate opponents and establish a one-party state.”
In a statement, NVVH said Hungary’s National Investigation Bureau (NNI) – which tackles organized crime – believes the four suspects “may have been involved in the entry of Vietnamese citizens into the Schengen area over several months in 2024.”
The Schengen area includes all of the European Union – except Ireland and Cyprus – plus Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein.
“It is suspected that the group members helped to obtain visas at Hungarian missions abroad, for which they charged a recruitment fee per person,” NVVH said.
“The proceeds were shared among the alleged perpetrators.
“According to current NNI data, the suspects may have provided assistance to more than a hundred Vietnamese citizens.”
NVVH said that, in some cases, the Vietnamese nationals applied for visas, stating they would do “short-term training” in Hungary.
According to the NVVH, Hungarian police said the majority of the Vietnamese immigrants did not participate in any short-term training in Hungary, and intended to travel on to Western Europe.
NVVH also said that one of those who had been arrested was also being questioned about alleged “influence peddling.”
“The suspect, citing his political connections and presumed influence, sought an unlawful advantage from the manager of a labor-sharing company through an intermediary,” the NVVH statement stated.
“In return, he allegedly promised to intervene to ensure that the company was returned to the register of priority employers.”
It was not immediately clear whether those arrested had legal representatives who could comment on their behalf.
After 16 years in power, Orban’s Fidesz-KDNP alliance lost an April election, and Magyar became prime minister after his Tisza party won the most seats in parliament.
A former Fidesz insider and trained lawyer who spent years as a Hungarian diplomat in Brussels, Magyar ran on a platform that combined an anti-corruption message with migration positions that sit well to the right of mainstream European opinion.
Magyar established NVVH after he came to power and said it was central to his government’s anti-corruption campaign, which he has called “Operation Purgatory.”
END
EU
Brussels Quietly Shelves Plan To Make ‘Hate Speech’ An EU-Wide Crime… But There’s A Catch
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 02:40 AM
The European Commission plans to withdraw its proposal to make hate speech and hate crime EU-wide criminal offenses after the bid stalled in the Council of the EU, the Epoch Times reported.
The Commission announced the decision on Nov. 4, the Epoch Times said. It concerns an initiative unveiled in December 2021 to add hate speech and hate crime to the list of EU crimes in Article 83(1) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, alongside terrorism, human trafficking and cybercrime. Doing so required the unanimous approval of member states and the consent of the European Parliament, which would then have let the Commission set common minimum definitions and penalties across the bloc. Parliament backed the idea in January 2024 by 397 votes to 121, with 26 abstentions. The Council never reached the unanimity needed.
The Commission is considering a directive to combat online incitement to violence and hatred instead, the Epoch Times reported. Alliance Defending Freedom International said on Nov. 9 that incitement to violence is already a crime, while proposals aimed at “incitement to hatred” have been used in some countries to prosecute peaceful expression, and that the plan risks becoming “yet another tool to silence disfavored views and strengthen the [Digital Services Act’s] online censorship regime.”
Jacob Mchangama and Natalie Alkiviadou, in a paper on the proposal, point to the Commission’s 2026-2030 Anti-Racism Strategy, which signals a possible initiative on online hate offenses under existing Article 83(1) categories such as computer crime. “Where unanimity failed, pursuing similar objectives through digital or computer-crime competences warrants scrutiny,” they write.
The rules already on the books are broad, with a 2008 Council framework requires member states to criminalize certain racist and xenophobic hate speech, and national laws diverge widely beyond that: Germany criminalizes incitement against groups defined by national, racial, religious or ethnic characteristics, while France’s Criminal Code and Press Freedom Act cover characteristics including sex, gender identity, sexual orientation and disability.
On platforms, the Commission announced updated hate speech guidelines under the Digital Services Act in January 2025, expecting participating platforms to review at least half of qualifying notices from monitoring organizations within 24 hours. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said that month that Europe had introduced an “ever-increasing number of laws” that institutionalized censorship, and French MEP Virginie Joron has called the DSA a “Trojan horse for surveillance and control.”
Council of Europe Secretary General Alain Berset said in June that democracies need stronger legal responses to hate speech: “What we need is a strategy for democratic security. One where hate speech is met with the law.”
END
5.RUSSIA AND ISRAEL AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFIARS
ISRAEL/IRAN/USA /TUESDAY NIGHT
Alastair Crooke Says Trump Has Until Jan. 3 To Strike Iran As Netanyahu Calls “Several Times A Day” Asking For War
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 10:20 PM
Former British diplomat Alastair Crooke says President Trump has until Jan. 3 to restart the war with Iran, and that Benjamin Netanyahu is pressing him to do it “several times a day, every day.” Crooke, whose wrote last month about the war’s cost, told the Daniel Davis Deep Dive that the nuclear option for Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain “may not actually do anything,” and that Iran will not negotiate until seven conditions are met.
Host Daniel Davis opened the interview days after what he called “a stinging rebuke” of Republicans at the midterm polls, noting that Trump had met his war council the day before and that a third carrier strike group was about 10 days out. His question to Crooke was whether the election should have ended talk of renewed war. Crooke called the idea “counterintuitive” for Trump, and what followed was a case that the pressure to strike now is coming from the calendar.
“He’s Only Got Until The 3rd Of January”
“He’s only got until the 3rd of January,” Crooke said of Trump. “And after the 3rd of January, it’s going to be much more difficult for him to start a war because the new Congress will have assembled.” Netanyahu’s clock is shorter, in his telling: he “came out badly bruised from the elections,” and “He rings him up or people close to Trump several times a day, every day, asking for war because Netanyahu sees this as his only salvation.” Crooke’s reason is that “The only way that he can produce a unity government is to say we’re at war.” Crooke gave no evidence for the calls.
Israel’s politics are moving the other way. As we reported, Israel’s president has since given Netanyahu’s rival, Gadi Eisenkot, the first chance to form a government, with Arab-led parties backing him. Crooke does not expect an Eisenkot government to want Trump’s war: “Now, Eisenkot, would he accept a war? I think no, is the answer to that.” He said Eisenkot and the chief of general staff “have all said there is no reason to go to an early war with Iran.” But he called Eisenkot “just as hard as any of them” on Gaza, the West Bank, Syria and Lebanon.
The gap in between is where Crooke sees the danger. A caretaker Netanyahu, he said, can still act: “Then he can launch a war legally and the IDF, even if they disagree with it and oppose it, will have to comply.” A war would also solve his coalition problem, since “he’ll immediately call for unity government and he’ll probably get one.” Crooke noted that Israel’s new Knesset assembles Nov. 9 and that Eisenkot plans a vote on an investigation into Oct. 7, which he called “toxic for Netanyahu.” Crooke’s conclusion (at 18 minute mark): “So the window is shut. So what we’re dealing with is really a last desperate throw of the dice.”
A 400-Kiloton Bomb Against A Granite Mountain
Asked about his main concerns, Crooke went through Trump’s options, starting with the one that has been discussed since Trump locked his crosshairs: a nuclear strike. The main nuclear bunker buster the United States has, he said, is the [B61-11], which he put at 400 kilotons and described as “a dumb bomb,” unguided, dropped from above “and hope that it lands roughly in the right place.” Reports put the bomb’s maximum yield at 340 to 400 kilotons, and carriage on a B-2.
Crooke’s doubt is that it would not reach what it is aimed at. “Well, if that goes off, first of all, it may not actually do anything, because granite is well known. It absorbs that sort of vibration, an explosive vibration.” Of the depth, he said “even the experts don’t know, but maybe it can penetrate 30 meters,” short of the roughly 100 meters he put the target at. If it does explode, he said, “I think for an area around it, for some kilometers, it will be possibly lethal to human beings.”
The smaller B61-12, which he put at 50 kilotons, needs an F-35, and he doubted it has the range from Jordan without refueling. The B-2 that would carry the larger bomb would be vulnerable on its route, he said, since stealth “will only work for a small part of a journey.” “What happens if the Iranians shoot it down? Then they’ll have a ready-made nuclear bomb in their possession.”
Crooke said the argument in Washington is that a nuclear blast would be Hiroshima, and “the Iranians would immediately wave the white flag.” He rejected it: “the Iranians would not ever accept a nuclear attack.” Conventional strikes, he noted, have already been tried twice. “It didn’t bring down the state. It didn’t cause an uprising.” He called the land-invasion options “pretty, you know, crazy.” On why Trump might go ahead anyway, he offered the Greek idea of tragedy: Trump and Netanyahu “have no choice but to make it happen because that is their nature.”
No Negotiations Until Seven Conditions
Mojtaba Khamenei, as state media report, said the United States’ power had fallen. In Davis’s reading: “the declining power and hegemony of the United States has suffered an irreversible fall in both dimensions of its power, its hard military power and its international soft power. The process of the U.S.’s collapse has accelerated.” The Leader warned that anyone who thinks “by making concessions to the U.S. they can persuade it to abandon its hostility, they’re gravely mistaken.” Davis took it as a sign Iran would carry out the strikes on infrastructure it has threatened.
Crooke tied it to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, who met Vladimir Putin in Moscow and delivered the Leader’s message, as Iranian media reported. “Rezaei made it very clear that Iran stands exactly behind its position, which is no negotiations until those seven prerequisites that are in the memorandum of understanding that Trump signed at Versailles are implemented.” That is Crooke’s description of the document; we could not find the Versailles memorandum. The conditions must come first, he said, “not done on a sliding scale, not done one by one, but done before negotiations can start. And the nuclear issue is not first, but last.”
He added that, in his view, Iran has reorganized for war: the course of the war is “run entirely by the IRGC through the National Security Council,” with President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi there “to give their advice.” Even Pezeshkian, of a faction that favors talks, “doesn’t see any point in negotiating with the United States,” he said. As to Russia, Crooke said there was no readout, and guessed that “Putin advised the Iranians that deterrence was not going to be sufficient to stop the prospect of war.”
If the U.S. strikes, Crooke said, Iran will answer beyond the region. As we noted, Khamenei has warned of “no geographical limits.” In Crooke’s words, “they are going to go after things like data centers. They’re going to go after also maybe undersea cables, telephone links,” which would do “long term huge damage to the American and to the world economy.” We reported on Iranian-linked ships near undersea internet cables.
Will Trump Listen To The Hawks?
Davis played a clip of Fox News commentator Marc Thiessen on Vice President JD Vance, who had said the Republicans lost because of the war. Thiessen: “It was, quite frankly, disloyal to the president of the United States.” Davis added that the Wall Street Journal said Vance’s theory of the defeat “comes close to a public [counsel] of surrender.” His question: “Are you concerned that President Trump may listen to these people and say, no, I really do need to go back and finish the job?”
“I think it’s quite possible. I think it’s actually most likely,” Crooke said. He said such voices never ask about costs: “due diligence on these things? Don’t you say, well, what if? What happens then?” What could short-circuit it, he said, were the Israeli politics and the markets, which he said were “close to collapsing” the night before, with “two, nearly three trillion of value knocked off the stock market.”
Europe’s Ukraine Bill
Davis closed by asking whether Europe has the same dynamic, “not give another 175 billion that they don’t have to Zelensky.” Crooke said the EU’s roughly EUR90 billion loan to Ukraine does not appear in the budget: “You won’t find a line entry in the European budget for 90 billion.” It was debt underwritten by member states and booked under “headroom,” he said. The EU’s own description of the loan is that it is funded by borrowing against that headroom, RFE/RL reported.
Crooke said Zelensky has spent most of it and “I need 70 billion urgently and probably 155 billion to get through the next years.” We found no source for those figures. “It’s not affordable. Everyone can see it’s not affordable,” Crooke said.
His answer to what Europe will do is that it will keep going, on a seven-year budget that he said needs sharply higher contributions from member states.
END
IRAN/ISRAEL USA
Oil Jumps Amid Fresh Tanker Attack; Iran Insists Nuclear Materal Won’t Leave Its Soil
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 10:45 AM
Update(10:45ET): Several bits of negative news out of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz have served to push oil prices higher Wednesday morning. Yet another tanker has been struck by a sea mine in the strait, adding to what’s become a daily and weekly tally. The attacks have come so frequently at this point that international maritime monitors are struggling to keep up with fresh data. According to the latest:
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says that a tanker caught fire after hitting a naval mine. Iran’s state media reports the tanker was traveling through an unauthorized route in the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway.
The British military said a tanker was involved in an incident while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center, or UKMTO, did not identify the tanker, and further details of the incident were not immediately available.
Additionally, as detailed below, Iran has firmly rejected prior reports that it is negotiating the nuclear file with Washington. Top Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei has rejected the prospect of transferring enriched uranium out of the country as part of any future deal to end the war.
Spike in crude amid a steady climb this week:
END
IRAN/USA
Rubio Suggests US Will Starve Iran Until Tehran Agrees To Peace Deal
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 11:50 AM
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Tuesday that eventually Iran will have to make a deal with the US as the country becomes increasingly desperate.
“Iran would love a deal. The problem is, the conditions they continue to place are absurd. They’re not even serious. But that could change. Eventually, you have to eat,” he said.
Rubio’s remarks suggest the US is prepared to cause starvation in Iran in an effort to get Tehran to comply with President Donald Trump’s demands.
On Saturday, Reuters reported that US Central Command (CENTCOM) had established Task Force Iron Gate to disrupt Iranian imports. C
ENTCOM later announced the task force. “On November 7, the commander of CENTCOM directed the establishment of a task force that will support ongoing US government efforts to prevent Iran from using ground routes to transport advanced weapons and other materials,” a statement said.
The US is waging an extensive economic war against Iran and has also placed a blockade on Iranian ports. The White House believes the sanctions and blockade are pushing the Iranian economy to the brink of collapse.
Some in the Trump administration believe that another short bombing campaign can now break the will to fight in Iran and force Tehran to make significant concessions at the negotiating table.
While Trump is weighing potential strikes against Iran, he says he is committed to allowing diplomacy to play out.
Similar Madeleine Albright ghoulish “we think the price was worth it” vibes…
On Monday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that there was progress towards ending the conflict. He wrote, “We are seeing positive momentum toward an end to this Conflict.”
Iran has vowed that it will respond to a US escalation by striking US allies across the region
IRAN
Iran Rejects Transferring “A Single Atom” Of Enriched Uranium From Its Territory
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 08:45 AM
Contradicting earlier Gulf-sourced reports from this week, top Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei has rejected the prospect of transferring enriched uranium out of the country as part of any deal with the US.
He weighed in during an interview with Lebanon’s Al Mayadeen TV, wherein Rezaei again slammed the door shut on Iran sending its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium to a third country.
Rezaei, who serves as the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), stressed that the Islamic Republic would not “remove a single atom of enriched nuclear material” and that Russia is aware of Tehran’s position.
Russia had earlier in the conflict offered to receive and store the highly enriched uranium – an overture which presumably still stands, but which Tehran is for now also rejecting.
The fresh statements come after Rezaei met with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week, and amid what appears to be Moscow’s stepped up diplomatic involvement in seeking to resolve the crisis in the region.
According a Al Jazeera, “While Iran has repeatedly rejected the transfer of its uranium, it has not ruled out diluting the uranium to a lower enrichment level under international supervision.”
Additionally in the comments, Rezaei characterized some recent reporting coming out the West on the status of negotiations as fake:
His comments come as reports swirl over a potential meeting between him and US Vice President JD Vance to negotiate a deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and ends the war against Iran, now in its ninth month.
Al Mayadeen quoted Rezaei as saying that there were no talks being held between Tehran and Washington, dismissing reports of a recent meeting in Qatar as “pure lies” meant to drive down oil prices which have risen around the world due to instability in the Middle East sparked by the war.
That’s precisely the process that seems to have been playing out at the opening of this week. Negotiation ‘optimism’ gets floated chiefly in Gulf news sources, only to hours later be batted down as false by the Iranian side.
Rezaei has stressed that the US was “manufacturing fake news” about talks.
Iran has still insisted its seven conditions must be met, and that it won’t negotiate the nuclear file until after the war is ended (and after these seven are fulfilled). As it stands, the seven are:
1. An end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon
2. Lifting the US naval blockade of Iran
3. Releasing Iran’s frozen assets
4. Lifting Iran sanctions imposed after the Islamabad Agreement
5. Withdrawal of US forces from the geography around Iran
6. Iranian oil sales to be exempted from sanctions
7. Recognition of the maritime corridor agreed upon by Iran and Oman. There will be no nuclear discussions until these conditions are met.
Middle East regional journalist and pundit Sharmine Narwani observes, “The Strait of Hormoz will not reopen until the US accepts and executes these terms, verifiably. Iran will no longer be flexible – that opportunity was forever lost once the US and Israel launched a war of aggression.”
Meanwhile, Professor Robert Pape says that if Tehran has decided to build a bomb, there’s basically nothing the US can do about it at this point.
Interestingly, war reparations are not mentioned in the above list, and this point was always seen as the most unrealistic for Washington to ever agree to.
However, Rubio this week cited war reparations as precisely the non-starter Tehran is still apparently sticking to, which he says shows Tehran is not yet serious about achieving a lasting peace deal.
ISRAEL TBN
END
LEBANON
Lebanon’s Salam declares ‘era of impunity’ over after five Hezbollah members arrested in north
The men were reportedly carrying maps and documents, some of which they allegedly attempted to destroy before being taken into custody.
Internal security forces are seen deployed in the city center of Nabatieh, in front of Hezbollah martyr posters and a building damaged by bombs, in Lebanon, October 26, 2026(photo credit: THOMAS NOONAN/HANS LUCAS /AFP via Getty Images)
NOVEMBER 11, 2026 14:25Updated: NOVEMBER 11, 2026 15:17
Lebanon’s Internal Security Forces (ISF) arrested five Hezbollah members in the border area between the Batroun and Bcharre highlands in northern Lebanon on Tuesday, according to Lebanese officials and media reports.
The men were reportedly carrying maps and documents, some of which they allegedly attempted to destroy before being taken into custody.
The five men were spotted by an ISF patrol passing through the area, which encountered them by chance, according to the Arabic-language news outlet Al-Modon. The men reportedly appeared nervous and began destroying documents, prompting the officers to arrest them and search the surrounding area.
Beirut Time journalist Riad Tawk reported that the documents contained lists of locations across the Koura, Batroun, and Bsharri districts, as well as references to weapons, including sniper rifles.
The ISF’s Information Branch is currently questioning the five men.
Following the arrests, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said he had contacted Lebanese Interior Minister Ahmad Hajjar, Lebanese Justice Minister Adel Nassar, Prosecutor General Hajj, and ISF Director General Raed Abdallah.
“The era of impunity is over,” Salam said in a statement from Turkey, while condemning “previously buried cases,” according to L’Orient Today.
“The investigations that have been opened will have no other limits than those imposed by the law,” he said.
Hezbollah may have been planning to carry out sectarian violence
Reacting to the arrests, Lebanese MP Ghassan Yazbeck noted on X/Twitter that the area where the men were detained was not close to Israel and suggested the Iran-backed group was planning to carry out sectarian violence. His comments referenced a recent case in which Hezbollah justified the attempted smuggling of 500kg of explosives into Beirut with the excuse that it would be used for attacks on the Jewish state.
“How will the party and its press justify this veiled aggression against a peaceful community that has always been careful to maintain good neighborly relations with Shiite villages, even during the darkest days of the war?” he wrote. “While we do not expect an answer from a party mired in arrogance and out of touch with reality, we are certain that it assumes either that the people of Batroun and Bsharri are planning to invade Shiite villages and is therefore drawing up plans to defend itself, an erroneous assumption, or that it is planning to invade neighboring villages. The second possibility is the certain one.
Lebanese gov’t’s ‘laxity’ emboldening Hezbollah, MP warns
“In either case, the party will fail. What it may succeed in doing, however, is sowing hatred in areas that have never known this scourge, and luring Israel into military action that will bring destruction to communities that have embraced members of its sect and displaced people who fled there in search of safety.”
“In fact, the government’s laxity in the face of the unchecked use of weapons, its refusal to implement its own decisions, and official rhetoric defending and justifying its inaction encourage the party to expand its militia’s military presence further within Lebanon, far from Israel, which it has written off,” he wrote.
END
GULF STATES/USA VS IRAN
GCC To Set Up Kuwait Command Center Amid Doubts Over US Security Commitment
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 09:00 PM
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has approved a new joint forward-command center to deepen military integration among members, as doubts rise about the US’s commitment to regional security amid the war on Iran.
The command center will be built in Kuwait, a Gulf state that endured thousands of missile and drone strikes from Iran and Iraqi militias aligned with Tehran. GCC secretary general Jasem al-Budaiwi said in a statement on Tuesday that the deployment of “appropriate” forces to the center would take place, but did not provide additional details.
The GCC body representing six Gulf states established a joint defense agreement in 2000, stating that an attack on one member is an attack on all. The GCC’s commitment to self-defense, however, is not as ironclad as that of the Nato military alliance.
The move could be seen as an effort to address the GCC’s lack of a joint military command structure. The organization has failed to respond to attacks on members from several fronts.
The GCC did not respond when Israel attacked Hamas negotiators in Doha, Qatar, in September 2025. The organisation has also failed to respond to devastating Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia.
The decision to base the command center in Kuwait may also raise questions about its practical viability. Kuwait’s geography at the hook of the Gulf made it especially vulnerable to missile and drone attacks from both Iran and Iraqi militias during the war.
Kuwait hosted around 14,000 US troops before the war, more than any other country in the Middle East. It is home to two large bases – Camp Arifjan and Ali al-Salem Air Base – both of which came under intense attack from Iran.
It’s unclear how the GCC could defend a command centre when the US could not defend its bases.
US security guarantees in doubt
Gulf states have turned to external partners for security. Saudi Arabia has activated the Mecca Pact with Pakistan and Turkey amid Houthi attacks.
Meanwhile, the UAE has doubled down on its security relationship with Israel. The US has been the security guarantor of the Gulf states for over half a century. But that relationship has been called into question as a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE lobbied the US against attacking Iran, but their pleas went unanswered. In retaliation, Iran attacked Gulf states that are home to US military bases.
The presence of US troops on their soil has been perceived by some Gulf analysts as making them a target. Oman, for example, which has one of the oldest diplomatic relationships with the US, has no permanent US military presence and was the least hit Gulf state.
The US Department of War’s inspector general said in a report published in September that “hundreds of buildings and structures” at US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, and Jordan were damaged or destroyed by Iranian strikes.
Current and former US officials say the Iran war exposed vulnerabilities in the US’s strategy of establishing bases close to Iran and that some facilities are unlikely to be rebuilt.
Last summer, even major airport hubs in Kuwait were getting pummeled…
“The truth is that we are not as inclined to occupy these bases now that we have seen what the Iranians can throw at them,” David Petraeus, a former director of the CIA and head of Centcom, told Bloomberg in May. “This is much more than when I was commander at Central Command,” he added.
Another former head of Centcom, General Frank McKenzie, said in July that the US needs to relocate its bases in the Gulf to Israel and neighbouring countries to better protect its assets from Iran’s missiles and drones.
“No one in their right mind would ever put the Centcom forward headquarters, you know, 100 miles away from Iran, [in Qatar], yet that’s where it is,“ he told the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, referring to al-Udeid.
END
SAUDI ARABIA/HOUTHIS/IRAN/USA
IRGC Unveils New Missile City, Touts Underground Production Amid War
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 08:20 PM
Iran is seeking to prove to the world that not only has its ballistic missile program been kept intact even after the intense bombing campaign of Operation Epic Fury, but it has even expanded domestic production.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has newly announced and claimed that it has expanded its missile production capacity deep underground, despite the US-Israeli war which in large part targeted its missile capability and nuclear development sites in an effort to degrade and destroy them.
The IRGC has hailed that it has transferred production processes from surface facilities to underground facilities, allowing the manufacturing of missiles and drones to persist even if Iran is bombarded by new attacks.
Iran’s Armed Forces Chief of Staff General Abdollahi has emphasized, “Advanced missiles will surprise enemies with their battlefield impact.”
And IRGC spokesman Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi described a process of moving beyond just underground missile storage complexes to establish “missile production cities” deep under the ground.
The IRGC spokesman has interestingly also issued the following list of the IRGC Aerospace Force’s major achievements via state media – many of these having come even during a state of war with the US:
1. Indigenous aerospace technology: Developing domestic expertise and localizing aerospace industries, transforming Iran from an arms importer into a producer and exporter of advanced military equipment.
2. Mass production and exports: Turning indigenous expertise into industrial-scale production of military equipment, including the ‘Shahed-136’ drone, which he said has been copied by several countries, including the US. He also cited exports of ‘Arman’ missiles, the ‘358’ drones and the ‘3rd Khordad’ air defense system.
3. Military self-sufficiency: Relying entirely on domestic expertise and production rather than foreign weapons, imported components or reverse-engineering captured equipment.
4. Operational capabilities under fire: Maintaining the ability to deploy short- and long-range, light and heavy weaponry and continue military operations despite intense enemy bombardment.
5. Countering enemy aircraft: Mohebbi said the Aerospace Force had intercepted and destroyed more than 260 enemy aircraft and aerial vehicles during the US-Israeli war of aggression, including F-35, F-16, F-5 and F-18 fighter jets, as well as MQ-1, RQ-4, Orbiter and Lucas drones. He stressed that the figure did not include the achievements of the Iranian Army.
6. Sustained wartime production: Establishing flexible production capabilities to ensure the uninterrupted manufacturing of missiles and drones under wartime conditions and heavy bombardment.
7. Missile and drone stealth capabilities: Reducing the radar cross-section (RCS) of missiles and drones, enabling them to penetrate multiple layers of enemy air defenses and accurately strike their targets. He stated that advanced systems, including THAAD, had proved ineffective, while Patriot systems had also suffered failures.
8. Effective deterrence: Establishing deterrence through retaliatory strikes against enemy military and strategic infrastructure, including artificial intelligence and data-processing facilities, which he said forced the enemy to reconsider and halt further attacks.
9. Links with scientific and industrial centers: Establishing close, organized cooperation with the country’s universities, research institutions, scientific centers and industries.
10. Unveiling future capabilities: Developing new military capabilities that Mohebbi described as major surprises, which would be unveiled if a third wave of confrontation with the enemy takes place. He said these achievements would demonstrate the force’s deterrent power and surprise the world.
State media circulated the following video:
All of this of course greatly complicates things further in terms of Washington aims (even if merely half of the above list was legitimately accomplished).
Among the key objectives of the US is to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal – a goal which has clearly not been accomplished. Given the missile cities expanse, this US objective is a tall order that is unlikely to ever actually be accomplished – short of some kind of nightmarish boots on the ground and many years-long invasion and occupation scenario.
ZH: So is a “third wave” coming? Polymarket bettors put the odds that the Israel-Iran ceasefire breaks before year-end at roughly 1 in 3, meaning we may find out sooner than Washington would like whether those underground “missile cities” are real…
END
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
Abu Dhabi Talks Result In ‘Large-Scale’ Prisoner Exchange Between Russia & Ukraine
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 10:30 AM
While there are no major or immediate breakthroughs expected from the trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi between Russia, Ukraine and the US – already some positive things are emerging.
The group on Wednesday announced that the sides have agreed to a large exchange of prisoners of war. Such exchanges have come intermittently throughout the war, which is approaching its five-year mark.
“One of the positives is we agreed that we’re going to have the biggest humanitarian release of prisoners, which we’re going to finalize the numbers tomorrow,” Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law and special envoy to the talks (alongside Steve Witkoff), said after the two days of talks in Abu Dhabi ended.
Precise numbers of POWs have yet to be given, but Russia’s chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky also confirmed it.
“We have agreed on a new, large-scale prisoner exchange,” Medinsky told reporters, noting that the “concrete” details of the exchange would be forthcoming.
“Together with the American side, we exchanged our views on this; on some points we reached a common understanding, whilst on others we did not. And this discussion will, of course, continue. The world needs a new, modern, updated security system – one that is fair and does not disadvantage any particular countries,” Medinsky said as cited in European media. And most significantly:
Russian Official Ushakov says “the possibility of holding a bilateral meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump on the sidelines of the APEC summit is currently being discussed and studied.“
And…
Russia’s Medinsky says they see no possibility of territorial exchanges with Ukraine, Tass reports.
Wishing to keep up the momentum in dialogue, Russian President Putin is expected to meet US envoys Witkoff and Kushner on Thursday morning, who are flying to Moscow.
Kushner proclaims that “openings and opportunities” have been presented…
Washington’s peace efforts have so far have failed to result in a peace breakthrough, and at the same time Ukraine’s Zelensky has been complaining that the Europeans must be at the table ‘every step of the way’.
However, the BBC on Tuesday cited US officials to say that Ukraine and Russia have privately shown “a little bit of flexibility” over disputed territory.
“They will not solve the Donetsk issue and the territorial issue until they know what the security architecture is going to be after the war,” an official remarked on the trilateral talks process. Zelensky is under pressure from the Trump administration to give up territory, and to also finally hold elections, but he also has a hardline nationalist base to not concede or compromise in any significant way.
END
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
COVID VACCINE INJURY REPORT: DR MARK CRISPIN MILLER
In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, November 2-9, 2026
Actors Kimmarie Johnson, Charles F. Porter; rockers Richard Lloyd, Bobby Taylor (C); singers Rochelle Fleming-Finney, Nicole Taylor (35,C); fighter Eric Huynh (23); hoopster Taurian Fontenette; & more
| Mark Crispin MillerNov 11 |  |
A survey of the likely global toll of COVID “vaccination,” based on the reports collected by our worldwide team of researchers this past week.
Note: These reports are not arbitrarily included. For a list of the criteria we use, see this footnote.¹
To help support our work, consider subscribing or making a donation.
UNITED STATES (108)
Actress Kimmarie Johnson Dead At 50 After Heart Aneurysm
November 5, 2026
Actress Kimmarie Johnson — best known for her roles in “Beverly Hills, 90210” and “Dude, Where’s My Car?” — is dead after suffering heart issues, TMZ has learned. Rhonda Scott, Kimmarie’s niece, tells TMZ Kimmarie had a “heart event” on October 27 at her home in Los Angeles [CA] and had to be rushed to Cedars-Sinai Hospital, where doctors diagnosed her with a “heart aneurysm condition.” We’re told Kimmarie passed away peacefully Wednesday afternoon after her heart stopped beating. Kimmarie was 50.
Researcher’s note – Johnson was working in the Film Industry between 2022-2023: Hollywood’s On-Set Vaccine [sic] Mandates to End on May 12, 2023: https://variety.com/2023/biz/news/covid-protocols-end-vaccine-mandate-hollywood-return-to-work-1235569515/
Charles F. Porter, Actor and Finding Faith Producer, Dies at 47
November 4, 2026
Former athlete, actor and producer Charles F. Porter has died at 47 from Hodgkin lymphoma. His family confirmed his death to The Hollywood Reporter on Wednesday, Nov. 4. His wife Candice Tab-Porter, sister-in-law and best friend and former Duke teammate, William L. Hill, were at his side when he died. He was diagnosed with Hodgkin lymphoma in 2010, and received a stem cell transplant the following year in 2011. The cancer subsequently returned three times, and in January 2022, he received a CAR T cell transplant, he wrote in a blog post.
Researcher’s note – Porter was working in the Film Industry between 2022-2023: Hollywood’s On-Set Vaccine [sic] Mandates to End on May 12, 2023: https://variety.com/2023/biz/news/covid-protocols-end-vaccine-mandate-hollywood-return-to-work-1235569515/
Richard Lloyd, pioneering Television guitarist, dies at 75 after rare cancer
November 7, 2026
Richard Lloyd, the cofounder and guitarist of punk group Television, has died after battling a rare cancer. He was 75. Lloyd’s family confirmed he died early Saturday, Nov. 7, at his home in Chattanooga, Tennessee, from a bile duct cancer known as cholangiocarcinoma. Through his guitar contributions, Lloyd helped Television become one of the most influential groups in the punk music scene alongside bassist Richard Hell, drummer Billy Ficca and frontman Tom Verlaine, who died in January 2023 at age 73 following a brief illness. Lloyd’s solo career spanned decades, from his debut album “Alchemy” in 1979 to his last album, “The Countdown,” in 2018.
The St. Louis music community has lost one of its own
November 7, 2026
Bobby Taylor wasn’t just a drummer – he was an absolute BEAST behind the drums! His energy, passion, and talent could light up any stage, and his powerful presence left a lasting impression on everyone who had the privilege of watching him perform. Bobby fought a heroic and courageous battle with cancer, showing incredible strength and determination along the way. Though his battle has come to an end, his legacy will live on through the music, the memories, and the countless lives he touched.
Researcher’s note – Taylor revealed on the “Rock, Recovery, and Real Talk with Bobby Taylor,” podcast last year that he was diagnosed with squamous cell carcinoma in 2021: “I had a lump under my jaw,” he said. “And then they turned into other lumps, and then it got into the lungs. I’ve done radiation five times. I’ve done chemo five times. I’ve done two immunotherapies, a target study and a partridge and a pear tree man. I don’t want to compare myself to Jesus, but Jesus was beaten for a day,” he added. “I’ve been beaten for four (expletive) years man.” Taylor said during the episode that he was denied lung surgery at the Mayo Clinic because he was “too far gone”: Link
No age reported.
First Choice lead singer Rochelle Fleming dies at 72
November 7, 2026
We are sad to report to SoulTrackers the passing of Rochelle Fleming-Finney, the powerful lead singer of the legendary Philadelphia vocal group First Choice and one of the defining voices of the disco era. Her death was announced on her Facebook page by manager George Iz Correia, with the apt tribute, “She brought light, laughter and love to the world.”
No cause of death reported.
Country Singer Nicole Taylor Dies at 35 After Being Diagnosed with Terminal Cancer, Her Triplet Sisters Reveal
November 3, 2026
Taylor Red singer Nicole Taylor [right] has died. She was 35. Nicole’s triplet sisters, Nika and Natalie Taylor, announced the singer’s death after being diagnosed with terminal breast cancer in a TikTok video on Monday, Nov. 2. The sisters revealed that Nicole was diagnosed with stage three breast cancer back in 2022. “It was an aggressive type. In her words, when she first found out, was ‘God’s gonna use this for his glory,’ ” Natalie said. “She thought it fearlessly and she said, ‘We’re not going to live in dread during all of this.’ And she even did CrossFit while she was with her chemo treatments. She responded well to treatments and she was declared evidence without disease.” “Then after that she was told it turned into stage four,” she continued. “She tried not to live in fear, remained really hopeful. She traveled, she tried to live life, she worked really hard, she tried to have fun.” The sisters shared that Nicole was told “nine months later” that the cancer had returned as stage four and she had “around three months to live.” “[The doctor said] if the treatments worked, they didn’t know how long after that,” Nika said.
North Texas musicians remember celebrated Dallas drummer Guyton Sanders
September 30, 2026
Dallas-based drummer, musician and beloved pillar of the D-FW music community, Guyton Sanders [54], died earlier this week after battling a long-term illness, according to an announcement from the Vandoliers, of which Sanders was a founding member. When news broke about Sanders’ death, his bandmates, friends and fans alike from across the country took to social media to share stories of his influence on their lives.
No cause of death reported.
MMA Fighter Dies at 23 Due to Unknown Reasons, Fight Community Mourns
November 10, 2026
A fighter in New England can use Creedence Clearwater Revival’s “Fortunate Son” for his walkouts. But the song may never carry the same energy it did when young Eric Huynh used it for his entrances. The 23-year-old amateur fighter of Vietnamese heritage will no longer entertain fans with his skills and antics that made him a popular figure in the region’s MMA community. “The New England MMA community is mourning the loss of Eric Huynh, an amateur fighter out of @b2basics_jiujitsu, who passed away on Nov 6, 2026,” read the message from MMA Island and Cage Titans. “In a sport where everyone seems to take themselves so seriously, Eric Huynh brought a breath of fresh air.” A Northeastern University student and the son of Vietnamese refugees, Huynh was steadily making a name for himself on the regional amateur circuit. As of this writing, no verified information regarding the cause of Huynh’s death was available.
Researcher’s note – Northeastern’s covid “vaccination” mandate (Brave AI): Northeastern University requires all students, faculty, and staff at its U.S. campuses to be fully vaccinated [sic] against COVID-19 and to have received at least one booster shot. This mandate follows CDC guidelines, which recommend a full course of a one- or two-dose vaccine [sic] plus a booster for individuals under 50.
Mercedes Mone’s Sister Passes Away
November 7, 2026
Mercedes Moné has shared an emotional tribute following the heartbreaking death of her younger sister, Alexis Varnado. The AEW star opened up about the devastating family loss in the latest edition of her “Moné Mag” newsletter, reflecting on an especially difficult period in her personal life. Moné revealed that Alexis passed away in September and admitted that she is still finding it difficult to process the tragedy. She wrote, “September was an incredibly hard month for me because I lost my younger sister, Alexis. It’s still difficult to talk about. She was so young, and knowing she left behind two young children makes my heart hurt even more. … I wish Alexis had more time. I wish her children had more time with their mom. I’m still trying to understand how somebody so young can be gone. I love you, Alex.”
No age or cause of death reported.
Taurian Fontenette, AKA ‘Air Up There,’ Cause of Death: What We Know About the AND1 Dunk Legend’s Passing
November 3, 2026
Taurian Fontenette, the AND1 Mixtape Tour dunker known as “Air Up There,” has passed away. He was 43. His sister, Tracie Fontenette, shared the news on Facebook on Tuesday, Nov. 3, saying he passed away Monday night, the Houston Chronicle reported. She wrote that he was “so much more than my little brother.” What Was Taurian Fontenette’s Cause of Death? It hasn’t been made public. Local authorities had no additional details as of Tuesday afternoon, according to the Chronicle, and the family hasn’t said how he passed away. Tributes started showing up on social media as the news spread. Chuck Millan, founder of the dunk team Team Flight Brothers, called Fontenette “arguably the greatest dunker to ever live” in a post on Instagram. For anyone who grew up watching AND1 mixtapes on DVD or grainy YouTube clips, that’s not much of a stretch.
Rachel Apa, a 24-year-old athlete, dies after collapsing during her first New York City Marathon
November 3, 2026
Rachel Apa, who played field hockey at Bucknell University, died Sunday after collapsing during the New York City Marathon. Her family said doctors attributed her death to rhabdomyolysis, a rare condition involving muscle breakdown. Apa had been running to honor her grandfather, who had Parkinson’s disease. Apa experienced a “medical incident” during the race, according to marathon organizers New York Road Runners, and a bystander administered CPR until medical staff arrived. Staff continued with CPR and also used a defibrillator in their efforts to revive her. EMS transported Apa to Mount Sinai Medical Center, where doctors tried to save her life for more than six hours, her father, Steve Apa, told the New York Times. Apa spent four years with the Bucknell University field hockey team before graduating in 2024 with a degree in business administration. She made 42 starts in 63 overall games, compiling 40 points on 17 goals and six assists.
Researcher’s note – Bucknell’s covid “vaccination” mandate (Brave AI): Bucknell University requires all students to be vaccinated [sic] against COVID-19 as a condition of being on campus, a mandate first implemented in Fall 2021 and maintained for subsequent academic years, including the Class of 2026. Vaccine [sic] boosters are also required for all eligible students, with documentation submitted to Student Health.
Reported on October 26:
High-Stakes Poker Player, Real Estate Investor Jeremy Kaufman Passes Away
October 26, 2026
Jeremy Kaufman, a popular high-stakes poker player known to be “fun-loving” by his friends and family, passed away unexpectedly. The 56-year-old recreational player from Chicago [IL] leaves behind three teenage children, a successful real estate business, and numerous friends within the poker community, including Mike Matusow.
No cause of death reported.
Beloved Retro Game Creator Dead at 29 as Family Warns Followers of Donation Scams
November 8, 2026
In devastating news for the gaming community, viral retro gaming creator Jacob “Retro” Payne, better known as Retro Jake, passed away on the evening of November 7th from complications stemming from heart failure. Payne was best known for buying, selling, and trading retro games at his video game stores in Richmond and Muncie, Indiana, while also showcasing collections and engaging with customers in a way that helped him build genuine and lasting relationships with his community. He was also known as a big supporter of causes in his local area, including a “Console For Kids” initiative that took place at Christmas last year and delivered video game systems to Girls Inc.
TikTok Dad Marcel Johnson Dead at 32
November 3, 2026
TikTok star Marcel Johnson is dead after battling stomach cancer, and social media is gutted by the tragic loss. His wife, Taylor, announced on Instagram that he’d lost his cancer battle on Monday in a heartbreaking post. Marcel — a father of 5 — was diagnosed with cancer last August, and has spent the past 15 months documenting his battle on social media. He was 32.
Longtime Voice of WPDH Has Passed Away at 59
November 3, 2026
For years, one of the most recognizable voices on Hudson Valley radio belonged to a man most listeners never knew by name. Steven Stewart, known professionally as “Zeus The Voice,” passed away on October 26 at the age of 59. If you’ve listened to 101.5 WPDH over the years, you’ve certainly heard Zeus. Through his company, Zeus The Voice, he provided voiceover work for some of the biggest names in entertainment, sports and television. His impressive list of clients included FOX, FOX Sports, MSNBC, The Weather Channel, MLB Network, TNT, Discovery Channel, the Smithsonian Channel and Panasonic. His voice was also featured in promotions for the Indianapolis Colts and major college football programs.
No cause of death reported.
Conroe sculptor Craig Campobella, known for Texas history works, dies
November 9, 2026
Conroe, TX – Montgomery County’s arts community is mourning the death of bronze sculptor and Texas historian Craig Campobella. Campobella died unexpectedly in his sleep Thursday, according to a Facebook post from his wife, Cristy. After a career in radio, Campobella was the visionary and designer of The Lone Star Monument and Historical Flag Park in Conroe. His sculpture, “The Texian,” is a centerpiece of the park just off Interstate 45 and Texas 105 in Conroe.
No age or cause of death reported.
Two teenagers “died suddenly”:
Star Football Linebacker Tragically Dies After Playing in Game
November 7, 2026
Connor Rios, a junior linebacker at Chaparral High School in Temecula, California, died Wednesday. Rios was just 16 years old. He had played in Chaparral’s October 29 game against Vista Murrieta, recording two tackles as the Pumas earned a convincing 49-14 victory. Less than a week later, the football program announced his passing. No cause of death has been publicly disclosed, and there is no verified indication that his death was connected to football or his final game.
Newman University grieving student’s death
November 9, 2026
WICHITA, Kan. – Newman University is mourning the loss of a freshman student who was found dead over the weekend. MacKenzie Rohr, 18, was found dead in her dorm room Sunday morning. She was majoring in sports media and was a member of the track and field team. “It’s never expected to lose somebody so young, and while we have no details on why or how, I think everybody is sorrowful to have lost her,” said University President Kathleen Jagger. Rohr’s cause of death will be determined by the Sedgwick County Medical Examiner’s Office.
Researcher’s note – Newman’s covid “vaccination” policy (Brave AI): Newman University does not require COVID-19 vaccination [sic] for employees or students. Instead, the university encourages vaccination [sic] to protect the community [sic] while allowing individuals to choose whether or not to be immunized.
Two doctors “died suddenly”:
Body of man found dead near Mass. farm identified, Essex DA says
November 9, 2026
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
“Lots Of Distressing And Borderline Disturbing Reports”
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 10:45 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
As has been the norm in 2026 to date, there are lots of distressing and borderline disturbing reports this morning and very little sign of progress where it’s needed. For once these surprises don’t all cluster in the messy world of geopolitics – and one is right in the middle of inflation and monetary policy.
Yesterday’s US CPI print came in hotter than expected at 0.4% m-o-m headline vs. a consensus of 0.3% and 0.3% core vs. a 0.2% market view. To put it in the words of the usually dovish Fed voter Goolsbee, “It’s another distressing report, borderline disturbing. We’ve been hoping to get progress.” Instead, we saw an acceleration in grocery and food inflation, persistent housing/shelter price pressure, and a delayed pass-through from earlier energy shocks feeding into medical care, household furnishings, and other daily expenses.
The reaction in US 2-year yields was dramatic – they jumped 19bps while 10-year yields rose 14bps to briefly go back above 5% again; today, we have a Bloomberg story talking about the possibility of a 50bps hike from the Fed!
Of course, that US yield spike came just after everyone rushed back into Treasuries after the AI and bullish oil trades hit an air pocket with last week’s US election on the view that the former is likely to be slowed down and that we are closer to peace than war in the Middle East on the back of the recent Democrat Blue Tsunami. Now imagine if either of those were not the case.
On AI, nobody knows what will happen next. However, as headlines along the lines of the old Bond film ‘The Spy Who Loved Me’ swirl around the Nvidia CEO, the Financial Times headline today is that Anthropic’s bankers are preparing to increase its IPO valuation to $1.5 trillion.
On the geopolitical front, Trump just said the US will continue with a full sea and land economic blockade of Iran and that new strikes are “highly unlikely.” However, the Jerusalem Post cites diplomatic sources that Qatar’s prime minister told G7 foreign ministers Doha had secured “at least two weeks” to pursue an understanding between D.C. and Tehran before US escalation. Presuming this was achieved last weekend, where other reports suggest the US was moments away from striking, that means we could still be looking at more fighting by mid- to end-November, at which time a third US aircraft carrier will be in the region. That’s a distressing report.
That is, unless an agreement can be reached: yet the US Secretary of State and Iranian officials insist the other side is intractable. Tehran also just demonstrated to its media the scale of its remaining underground missile city facilities, as western intelligence reports point to the ability to produce up to 50 missiles a month despite the US blockade.
Other logistical movements point to a high risk of looming conflict. The US just relocated 10 refuelling planes from a second UK airbase for fear of Iranian retaliation, an indictment of Western security – but retaliation for what if no attacks are planned?
And recall the war is on more than one front. Syrian officials have denied reports that thousands of its troops have been deployed to aid Saudi forces against the Houthis in Yemen, stating they are only there for “training, expertise exchange and military consultations.” A useful coincidence as Syria considers joining the Mecca Pact, under which Egyptian and Pakistani troops are already present in Saudi alongside French and British fighter jets.
Meanwhile, in Abu Dhabi, Russia, Ukraine, and the US held talks about a “final end” to the war and a “new European security architecture.” On the former, Zelenskyy the initial discussions as “constructive and fairly substantive,” but that Putin lives in “a different reality.” On the latter, it’s notable Europe wasn’t present. When changes to one’s home’s architecture are planned you usually get a say(!) – but not the case when much of the architecture is (for now) provided by others.
In a best-case scenario, this may lead to a frozen conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In the worst-case scenarios, the talks collapse and we go back to escalation; or, less likely, fears are the US might agree with Russian demands for a roll-back of NATO and a seat at Europe’s table as the price for peace. That’s a stark binary with potentially equally stark impact on Europe across different dimensions. It’s borderline disturbing to have to talk about borders and lines (on maps and screens) like that.
Linking this Great Power zeitgeist back to markets, Bloomberg today notes that Russia has effectively abandoned attempts to replace the dollar with CNY due to US secondary sanctions, the yuan’s share in payments for Russian exports halving to 22%, and Russia now receiving RUB for 69% of its exports to Asia. That leaves Russian businesses with slower, more expensive, less predictable, and more complex payment routes and shows some of the power the US can bring to bear in the financial space even as its shortfalls in terms of military industries are equally evident.
On the same zeitgeist, Canadian PM Carney publicly stated that regarding China: “In terms of the security risks for our partnership, they’re much, much, much less than the security risks, for example, of the United States.” Trumpian rhetoric and Carney’s talk of a US invasion aside(!), Canada and the US are still NATO allies and members of NORAD. The PM’s rhetoric may be a negotiating position over tariffs – but it remains to be seen if the new Blue US Congress is prepared to lower those vs. Canada if Ottawa is at the same time determined to integrate its economy more closely with China’s.
It’s also notable that the Dutch candidate to replace ECB President Lagarde, Klaas Knot, gave an interview to the Financial Times in which he stated, “If circumstances require it, we will not hesitate to take action.” He wasn’t referring to 50bps rate hikes due to geopolitically driven inflation but in the opposite direction, where if Europe were to see a future crisis “of a different nature,” he “would not rule out developing another, more tailored instrument.” Yet given potential crises could emerge from the absence of black, sticky, liquid products rather than digital financial liquidity, is there a tacit implication that “Whatever it takes” might need to become “Wherever it takes us”?
If so, is that reassuring, a distressing report, or borderline disturbing?
END
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS/ENERGY COMMENTARIES
LNG/QATAR/EUROPE
Qatar LNG Loadings Climb To Half Of Pre-War Levels As Energy-Starved Europe Prays For Winter Relief
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 06:25 AM
The story in the Strait of Hormuz has been that Middle Eastern crude exports have recovered to about 80% to 85% of pre-war levels, including pipeline shipments, while refined-product exports remain muted.
The uneven recovery shows how Gulf producers prioritize crude oil shipments over refined products as the Hormuz chokepoint remains vulnerable despite encouraging diplomatic signals.
Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman emeritus of industry consultant FGE NexantECA, said last week that while Middle Eastern crude exports, including pipeline shipments, have recovered to 80% to 85% of pre-war levels, refined-product shipments remain at around 35% to 40%.
“Oil infrastructure such as refineries remains susceptible to drone strikes,” which has led Gulf producers to prioritize crude shipments, said Xavier Tang, senior market analyst for Vortexa.
More good news from Hormuz on Tuesday, as Bloomberg reports that Qatar’s liquefied natural gas loadings have reached 13 to 15 shipments per 10-day period on a moving-average basis this month, up from about 11 in October, or roughly half of pre-war levels. 
The figures are based on Bloomberg, Kpler and Copernicus data.
A pickup in Qatari LNG supply reaching the global market would be welcome news for Europe, where natural gas inventories are well below seasonal norms and gas prices trade around 82 euros per megawatt-hour, down from more than 100 euros before last week’s positive diplomatic signals erased a hefty war-risk premium in energy markets.
One of Qatar’s LNG tankers was attacked last month, but that hasn’t decreased exports or Hormuz transits. Previous attacks slowed Qatari LNG flows through Hormuz.
These positive developments toward ending the conflict and easing the global energy crisis sound promising, but stockpiles worldwide have been dangerously depleted this year. Ukraine’s relentless targeting of Russian refineries suggests that global markets will remain tight well into next year, especially for diesel.
For Europe, the window to rebuild NatGas inventories has closed, with seasonal storage withdrawals already underway for several weeks.
As we reported Monday, Qatar is hedging against what could be years of Hormuz chokepoint uncertainty with deals to buy up to 7 million tons of US LNG annually from Cheniere and Woodside.
This year’s US-Iran conflict knocked out roughly 17% of Qatar’s export capacity, costing an estimated $20 billion in annual revenue. With deliveries beginning in 2030 and 2031, the deals cement America’s LNG dominance into the 2030s and reveal a striking reversal: one of the world’s largest LNG exporters is turning to its biggest rival for insurance amid Hormuz uncertainty that will linger for years.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
ARGENTINA/GR BRITAIN/ FALKLAND ISLANDS/OIL
Tribunal Hearings Begin In UK-Argentina Row Over Falklands Oil Project
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 07:25 AM
Authored by Charles Kennedy via Oilprice.com,
The Hamburg-based International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea on Tuesday began hearings of Argentina’s complaint about the UK’s oil drilling project north of the Falkland Islands, which Argentinian President Javier Milei claims is unlawful amid a recently revived row with Britain over who controls the Falklands.
The Sea Lion oil field is operated by Navitas Petroleum Development and Production Ltd (NPDP), a UK-based fully owned subsidiary of Israeli Navitas Petroleum, and its British partner Rockhopper Exploration.
The companies earlier this year reached a final investment decision on the Sea Lion Northern Development. This means that all the necessary approvals and funding for full-scale project execution have been secured. First oil is planned for March 2028, Navitas Petroleum says.
However, after months of tensions over the Falklands and the oil drilling project, Argentina in October took the case to the international tribunal.
The court can issue legally binding rulings on maritime disputes.
“We will always respect the rights of the Falkland Islanders to choose to be British. That will never change under this Government, and we will be relentless in defending that,” UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham said in September, shortly after Milei escalated his fight for the Falklands.
The UK is “fully engaged in the UNCLOS process and we’ll clearly set out our position on Argentina’s request for provisional measures before the tribunal,” the prime minister’s official spokesman told The Independent on Monday.
“We’ll continue to robustly defend our interests and those of the Falkland Islanders. The hearing is not about the sovereignty of the Falklands,” the spokesman added.
Falkland Islanders have previously voted overwhelmingly to remain a British Overseas Territory.
The UK and Argentina fought a brief war in 1982 over the Falklands, which Argentina calls Las Malvinas, but the tension and the dispute never really faded away. Britain has controlled the islands since 1833, while Argentina has long claimed they are part of its territory.
END
HAITI/(CRIMINAL GANGS/EL SALVADOR
El Salvador Launches Helicopter Air Assault On Haitian Gang Compound
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 12:05 PM
El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, launched an all-out helicopter assault on the compound of Haiti’s largest criminal organization.
Bukele wrote on X that Salvadoran troops destroyed a compound allegedly used by the leader of the 400 Mawozo gang.
“We kept our promise… We destroyed the house of Lanmò San Jou and the 400 Mawozo gang’s headquarters. Most of them ran away without even trying to fight,” Bukele said.
He shared footage showing multiple MH-6 Little Bird helicopters equipped with a variety of side-mounted guns, miniguns and cannons attacking 400 Mawozo’s compound and a house belonging to its leader, Wilson Joseph, known as Lanmò San Jou.
Local media outlets reported that as many as 20 people were killed in the strike early Sunday and that Joseph was not at the compound at the time of the air assault.
El Salvador has maintained a small troop presence in Haiti since January 2025. Bukele surged troops into the country last month to rescue four Salvadorans missing since an Oct. 18 ambush.
Bukele’s announcement comes as Haiti’s prime minister, Alix Didier Fils-Aimé, prepares to visit El Salvador next week to discuss the future of Salvadoran troops in his gang-plagued Caribbean hellhole island.
The operation also comes ahead of Haiti’s elections scheduled for July and October next year, which would be the country’s first in more than a decade.
END
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING\
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1135 DOWN 0.0035
USA/ YEN 159.12 UP 0.412 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!! BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE. URGES PENSION AND INSUANCE FUNDS TO BUY JAPANESE BONDS//
YEN CARRY TRADERS MURDERED
GBP/USA 1.3309 DOWN 0.0039 OR 39 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4230 UP 0.0044 //CDN DOLLAR DOWN 44 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 16.92 PTS OR 0.46%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 241.12 PTS OR 0.98%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.32%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 241.12 PTS OR 0.98%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.92 PTS OR 0.46%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .32%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 789.91 OR 1.31%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4044.20
silver:$52.78
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 50.24 UP 1 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 82.50 ROUBLE// UP 0 ROUBLE AND 37 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.2056 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.6442 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
FRENCH OAT 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.761 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.717 UP 6 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.4560 UP 8 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY MORNING: 102.43 UP 30 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSES
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.739 % DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.793% UP 12 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.9450 UP 4 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.8730 UP 1 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 4.353 UP 1 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.3071 UP 1 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1086 DOWN 0.0082 OR 82 basis points
USA/Japan: 159.60 UP 0.889 OR YEN IS DOWN 89 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.2118 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.6363 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS.
FRANCE 10 YR: 4.775 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR/VS CANADIAN DOLLAR UP 0.0062 BASIS PTS TO 1.4248 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 62 BASIS PTS
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The USA/Yuan CNY 6.6707 ON SHORE ..DOWN
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH DOWN TO 6.6714
TURKISH LIRA: 50.23 DOWN 1 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 in basis points from TUESDAY at 5.008 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.358 UP 1 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.748 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 9;00 AM $4022.00
SILVER AT 9;00: $52.25
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest ratesWEDNESDAY
DAY CLOSING TIME/ 12:00 AM///
London: CLOSED UP 83.88 PTS OR 0.78%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 315.32 PTS OR 1.20%
FRANCE: UP 54.28 OR 0.60%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 91.50 PTS OR 0.46 %
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 191.46 TS OR 0.37%
WTI Oil price 87.08
Brent Oil: 92.59 10;00 EST
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 102.81 OR UP 68 PTS
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 82.65/ ROUBLE UP 0 AND 51 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.717 UP 0 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.456 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM//
Euro vs USA 1.1093 DOWN 0.0075 OR 75 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3278 DOWN 0.0069 OR 69 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 5.2305 UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.6110 DOWN 3 IN BASIS PTS.
FRENCH 10 YR BOND: 4.785% DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.779 % UP 11 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.940 UP 8 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 159.86 UP 1.146 OR YEN DOWN 115 BASIS PTS//GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM 160.00/ EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4246 UP 0.0060 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 60 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 86.29
Brent OIL: 92.44
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS pts to 5.000%
USA 30 yr bond yield: UP 0 PTS to 5.388%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.748 UP 0 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.717 UP 0 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.456 UP 0 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 102.81 UP 68 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 50.23 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 82.65 UP 0 AND 51 /100 roubles //
GOLD $3988.00 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 51.86 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 254.48 POINTS OR 0.49%
NASDAQ 100 UP 633.46 PTS OR 2.28 %
VOLATILITY INDEX 17.53 DOWN 1.93 PTS OR 9.92%
GLD: $ 365.17 DOWN 4.19 PTS OR 1.13%
SLV/ 46.65 PTS UP 0.17 OR 0.37%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 277.84 PTS OR 0.77%
END
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
With Bond Vigilantes Away, Retail Will Play: NeoCloud Surge Erases Nasdaq’s Post-Election Losses
WRAP UP
Stocks gain as CoreWeave earnings ease AI fears – Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 04:09 PM
- SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasury futures down, Crude up, Dollar up, Gold down.
- REAR VIEW: Strong CRWV earnings; Iran’s Rezaei threatens to target “distant” US military bases if Iran is attacked; Goolsbee said October inflation was “borderline disturbing”; ANT IPO reportedly multiple times oversubscribed; OPEC maintains 2026 and 2027 demand and supply forecasts; US Envoy Kushner said significant disagreements remain on Ukraine; Vance reportedly considering face-to-face talks with a top Iranian security official.
- COMING UP: Data: UK GDP (Q3/Sep), US Jobless Claims (Nov/07), Existing Home Sales (Oct) Speakers: BoJ’s Asada; Fed’s Hammack, Goolsbee, Daly, Williams, Barr, Schmid; ECB President Lagarde Supply: Japan, Italy, UK, US Earnings: Cisco, Applied Materials, Siemens, Allianz, Nebius.
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MARKET WRAP
Stocks closed in the green on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq outperforming as technology stocks extended their recovery amid the ongoing AI rebound. Sentiment was supported by strong earnings from CoreWeave (CRWV) after-hours Tuesday, with shares rallying 24.5%, reversing some of the recent weakness and helping ease concerns surrounding the sector. The report also boosted other neocloud names, with attention turning to Nebius (NBIS) earnings on Thursday for further insight into the sector. Given the rebound in neocloud names easing some data centre concerns, hyperscalers have seen some pressure, with META, MSFT, and AMZN all closing lower, as it may reduce the demand for them to pick up some of the excess slack.
Crude prices settled firmer following further remarks from Iranian Security Chief Rezaei, who warned that distant US military bases would be targeted in the event of another attack on Iran. He also reiterated that Iran would not export enriched uranium, seemingly rejecting a key US demand, and insisted Washington must respond to Tehran’s seven-point plan. However, US VP Vance is reportedly considering a meeting with Rezaei in an effort to end the conflict.
Attention also remained on trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the US, which delivered mixed signals. Russia’s chief negotiator Medinsky suggested the sides were moving closer to peace, although much depends on the participants, while US Special Envoy Kushner said significant disagreements remain. Ukrainian President Zelensky added that Russia had rejected ceasefire proposals.
The risk-on environment weighed on Treasury futures, although cash trading was closed for Veterans Day. Firmer oil prices also likely contributed to the pressure, alongside the lingering impact of Tuesday’s hawkish Fed repricing following Waller’s comments and the hotter-than-expected CPI report. After-hours Tuesday, Goolsbee (2027 voter) described the inflation report as “borderline disturbing”, while Paulson (2026 voter) continued to favour gradual rate hikes but warned that more aggressive tightening may be required if the inflation picture deteriorates.
In FX, the Dollar extended its outperformance, with the Yen and Swiss Franc remaining under pressure amid the widening yield differentials following Tuesday’s hawkish developments and further weakness in Treasury futures. USD/JPY reached a high of 159.94, approaching the 160.00 level, while EUR/USD fell to a YTD low of 1.1083. Spot gold also came under pressure, falling below USD 4,000/oz after reaching an earlier session high of USD 4,067/oz.
FED
BOWMAN (voter): In the Q&A of her speech on Tuesday, Bowman said that inflation expectations are an important data point, but they are not necessarily controlling how she thinks about things, noting they are very well anchored. She acknowledged she is shifting her focus to inflation, and that she would need to see AI and Middle East risks abate before she could be confident inflation will come down next year. In terms of the path forward, Bowman highlighted how the Fed cut rates gradually last year, and then paused before resuming, stating the Fed may work the same way to address inflation in the coming months – signalling a hike, pause, hike strategy. The Governor added that the fact that inflation is not on a downward trend should give the Fed pause, noting the Fed needs to think about what pace and what timeline are needed to address above-target inflation.
PAULSON (2026 voter): Said further gradual rate hikes are appropriate to bring monetary policy to a somewhat restrictive level, although the exact path will depend on how the economy evolves and the Fed is prepared to tighten more aggressively if the inflation outlook deteriorates. She supported the Fed’s recent rate decisions, noting that gradual tightening has allowed policymakers to assess the impact of higher rates while giving the economy time to adjust. On inflation, Paulson warned that the latest CPI data showed price pressures remain problematic, with underlying inflation stuck between 2.5% and 3%, suggesting the Fed has more work to do to restore price stability. She also highlighted uncertainty surrounding the inflationary impact of AI investment and energy prices. Regarding the economy, Paulson noted that growth has been stronger than expected, while the labour market remains robust and stable.
GOOLSBEE (2027 voter): Said the latest CPI report was borderline disturbing, warning that inflation remains a significant problem that the Fed will need to address. He expressed particular concern that services inflation is not easing, noting that price pressures are being driven by both supply-side costs and stronger demand, raising fears of broader overheating across the economy. Goolsbee stressed that persistent inflation could become embedded in inflation expectations, which would be a major concern for policymakers. On monetary policy, he reiterated that the Fed must bring inflation back to its 2% target and that all options remain on the table if price pressures fail to subside. Regarding the labour market, he noted that employment conditions remain steady and stable.
FIXED INCOME
T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLED 7 TICKS LOWER AT 106-01
THE DAY: Cash Treasury trading was closed on account of Veterans Day, making for a relatively quiet session. However, T-note futures trended lower throughout the day, seemingly weighed on by rising oil prices and the continued recovery in equities. Crude prices gained following hawkish rhetoric from Iran’s Security Chief Rezaei, who warned that any renewed attack on Iran would also be met with strikes on “distant” US military bases, while adding that Iran would not remove any enriched nuclear material from the country, seemingly rejecting a key US demand in negotiations. Elsewhere, Russia-Ukraine talks took place in Abu Dhabi, with Russia describing the discussions as substantial and very useful, although US Special Envoy Kushner said significant gaps remain despite the earlier Russian optimism.
The continued rebound in equities also likely weighed on Treasury futures, with technology and AI-related stocks recovering further. Sentiment was supported by a strong earnings report from CoreWeave (CRWV) on Tuesday evening, helping lift other recently beaten-down neocloud names and easing some concerns surrounding the sector.
Meanwhile, markets continued to digest Tuesday’s hawkish Fed developments following Waller’s comments and the hotter-than-expected October CPI report. After-hours Tuesday, Goolsbee (2027 voter) described the inflation report as borderline disturbing, while Paulson (2026 voter) said the Fed may need to tighten more aggressively if inflation deteriorates. However, Paulson favoured further gradual hikes for now, striking a less hawkish tone than Waller and Logan regarding the potential need to accelerate tightening.
Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that Fed officials are debating whether NY Fed President Williams must step down in June 2027, when he turns 65, or whether he can remain until June 2028. The discussion reportedly concerns Fed retirement rules rather than his performance.
Looking ahead, attention turns to Thursday’s 30-year Treasury auction and a plethora of Fed speak, followed by US PPI on Friday. Next week brings the FOMC Minutes and US retail sales report.
CRUDE
WTI (Z6) SETTLED USD 0.49 HIGHER AT 86.53/BBL; BRENT (F7) SETTLED USD 1.27 HIGHER AT 92.76/BBL
The crude complex was firmer amid some punchy rhetoric out of Iran. Although energy benchmarks strengthened on Wednesday, they remain a long way off recent highs, given the more constructive tone between the US and Iran over the past week or so. WTI and Brent rose in the European morning after Al Mayadeen reported that Iran’s Rezaei said any new US attack would be met with the targeting of “distant” US military bases as well, and that Iran will not remove any enriched nuclear material from the country. WTI and Brent then gradually moved higher through the European session to highs of USD 88.74/bbl and USD 94.73/bbl, respectively, before paring some of the gains through the US afternoon. Adding to the punchier tone, Fars reported that “naval mines blow up two more illegal tankers in the Strait of Hormuz” overnight, saying they were oil tankers supported by US “fighter planes”. Meanwhile, the WSJ reported around settlement that VP Vance is considering face-to-face talks with a top Iranian security official, in an effort to end a war seen as a drag on the Republican Party. However, plans are reportedly at a preliminary stage.
Trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia and the US ended in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday. While the tone was broadly constructive, there was no significant breakthrough. As expected, all three sides gave readouts. Russia’s top Ukraine negotiator Medinsky said it seems they are closer to peace, but that a lot now depends on all participants in the process, while Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said there is a foundation for further work. For Ukraine, negotiator Umerov said talks should be multilateral rather than trilateral, with Europe involved, and that there is good momentum towards a solution before end-2026. Lastly, US Envoy Kushner said he and Witkoff will travel to Russia to meet President Putin on Thursday, before meeting Ukrainian President Zelensky. He added that progress was made on Ukrainian security guarantees. However, oil saw some upside as he noted that significant disagreements remain.
In the November MOMR, OPEC left its 2026 and 2027 demand and supply forecasts unchanged from the prior report.
EQUITIES
CLOSES: SPX +1.27% at 7,617, NDX +2.28% at 28,374, DJI +0.48% at 52,481, RUT +0.86% at 2,846.
SECTORS: Technology +2.71%, Energy +1.81%, Industrials +1.32%, Communication Services +0.91%, Financials +0.59%, Consumer Staples +0.53%, Materials +0.45%, Utilities +0.26%, Health +0.06%, Real Estate +0.03%, Consumer Discretionary -0.36%.
EUROPEAN CLOSES: DAX +1.12% at 26,642, FTSE 100 +0.78% at 10,835, CAC 40 +0.66% at 8,333, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.08% at 6,396, AEX +1.12% at 1,145, IBEX 35 +0.46% at 20,028, FTSE MIB +0.37% at 51,947, SMI +0.11% at 15,054.
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- CoreWeave (CRWV) reported stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue and profits, alongside upgraded FY guidance and a growing order backlog; the release highlighted robust AI infrastructure demand.
- Anthropic IPO multiple times oversubscribed, according to reports.
- Nvidia (NVDA) chips reportedly reach blacklisted Chinese entities. On the sell-side, Baird downgraded shares & cut PT to USD 200/shr (prev. USD 500/shr), while MS removed it as a ‘Top Pick’.
- Nissan Motor (NSANY) cut FY vehicle sales forecast to 2.97-3.0mln units (prev. 3.15mln) amid weak Chinese demand and intensifying EV competition.
- Michael Burry purchased an undisclosed amount of shares in Lululemon (LULU).
FX
The Dollar Index continued to move higher following Tuesday’s hawkish Fed repricing, in the wake of Waller’s remarks and the hotter-than-expected CPI report. Along the same lines, Paulson (2026 voter) said overnight that the Fed will move more aggressively if the inflation landscape worsens, but reiterated the party line that further gradual rate hikes are appropriate given high inflation, and that the exact path of policy depends on how the economy evolves. Newsflow was otherwise very thin, with no Fed speak or data due to Veterans Day. On geopolitics, Ukraine-Russia rhetoric was more constructive, albeit with no significant breakthrough, while Iran’s Rezaei struck a punchier tone than in recent talks. Separately, the WSJ reported that US VP Vance is considering a meeting with Rezaei in a push to end the war, although plans are at a preliminary stage and are being handled through mediators. Looking to Thursday, there is plenty of Fed speak (Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, Daly, Schmid and Williams), alongside a 30yr bond auction and weekly jobless claims.
As on Tuesday, G10 FX was lower to varying degrees, driven by broad Dollar strength rather than currency-specific newsflow. The havens, CHF and JPY, lagged amid widening yield differentials. For the Swissy, SNB’s Schlegel said the SNB is ready to be active in FX markets. For the Yen, the latest Reuters Tankan showed a broad upswing in Japanese manufacturing sentiment to a five-year high. Despite this, USD/JPY tested 160 to the upside, although ING writes that it increasingly thinks investors will look to buy cheap yen should USD/JPY push above 160 again.
High-beta FX also lost ground, but fared relatively better. On central banks, BoE’s Greene said it is appropriate “to proactively tighten our monetary policy stance to lean against the risk of wage growth getting stuck at higher levels”. Newsflow out of Europe was light, but EUR/USD hit a YTD low of 1.1083, with little scheduled in the Bloc for the rest of the week.
In EMFX, the PBoC’s Q3 Monetary Policy Implementation Report said the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth. Meanwhile, BCB Governor Galípolo spoke, although there was little reaction in the Real.
USA DATA RELEASES
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
CoreWeave Pops On Beat And Raise… Then Guides To A $1.1 Billion Quarterly Interest Bill As Debt Hits $47 Billion
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 04:41 PM
The bar could hardly have been lower.
CoreWeave (CRWV) walked into tonight’s third-quarter report with its stock down more than 73% from its June 2025 high of $183, its 9.75% 2031 bonds yielding north of 15%, its CDS above 1,100bps, and a freshly elected class of governors who would rather not see another data center built in their states, thank you very much. Options were pricing a 15.5% move in either direction, and after a week in which exactly one of 45 data center ballot measures went the industry’s way, most of the nervous money was looking down.
Well, the neocloud delivered: revenue, margins and guidance all came in above expectations, and the stock immediately spiked as much as 10% after hours to $54, a welcome change for a name that had fallen after five of its six reports as a public company.
But as has been the case lately, it didn’t last: within minutes most of the gain was gone.
What did the market see once it got past the first page of the release?
Probably the two sentences that will matter most to anyone who owns the company’s bonds (and after the past month, maybe its stock too) were tucked into the outlook: CoreWeave expects to pay between $1.05 billion and $1.15 billion in interest in the fourth quarter alone, and it is pulling capex forward, lifting the low end of its full-year range to $37 billion. In other words, the best quarter in the company’s history still ended with $11.8 billion more debt than it started with.
First, The Good News (And There Is Plenty)
Here is what CoreWeave reported for the third quarter, with estimates from Bloomberg consensus:
- Revenue $3.66 billion, up 168% y/y and 42% q/q, beating the estimate of $3.56 billion and the top of the company’s own $3.45-$3.60 billion guide
- Adjusted operating income $379 million, beating the $245.8 million estimate by 54% and blowing through the $200-$260 million guide
- Adjusted EBITDA $2.26 billion, beating the estimate of $2.05 billion; margin 62% vs. 57.6% expected
- GAAP operating income $207 million vs. estimate of $63.7 million
- Net loss $709 million, smaller than the $850.4 million estimate (but 6.4x the $110 million loss a year ago)
- Loss per share $1.27 vs. estimated loss of $1.46
- Interest expense, net $846 million, below the $860-$940 million guide, and up 173% y/y
- Revenue backlog $132.5 billion, up from $104.2 billion at June 30
- Active power over 1.7 GW; contracted power over 4.6 GW
- Cash and equivalents $4.12 billion, down from $5.52 billion at June 30
- Total liabilities $87.46 billion
Sequentially, revenue rose by more than $1 billion in a single quarter, a first for the company, and the adjusted operating margin climbed back to 10% from 5% in Q2 and just 1% in Q1. CEO Michael Intrator said margins reached “double digits a quarter ahead of plan”, which is fair: the July price increases and a wave of new capacity showed up exactly where the bulls said they would.
The guidance was even better:
- Full-year revenue raised to $13.0-$13.3 billion from $12.4-$13.2 billion, which implies Q4 revenue of roughly $4.7-$5.0 billion against a Street sitting near the bottom of that range
- Full-year adjusted operating income raised to $1.275-$1.375 billion, a 26% increase at the midpoint, implying about $800 million in Q4, or more than double tonight’s number
- Exit annualized run-rate revenue raised to $20-$21 billion from $18.5-$19.5 billion
- Year-end active power target unchanged at more than 1.85 GW
So far, so good. If this were a software company, we could probably stop here.
It is not a software company.
Now For The Bill: $1.1 Billion A Quarter, Payable To The Lenders
Here are management’s own words on the two numbers that matter:
We now expect full year 2026 capital expenditures of $37 billion to $39 billion, raising the low end of our prior guidance range of $35 billion to $39 billion. This is as a result of our expectation to deploy infrastructure and deliver it to customers sooner than planned.
We expect interest expense for Q4 2026 in the range of $1.05 to $1.15 billion.
Start with interest. The midpoint of the Q4 range, $1.1 billion, is 30% higher than the $846 million CoreWeave just paid, almost three times the $388 million of a year ago, and annualizes to $4.4 billion. That is against exit run-rate revenue of $20-$21 billion, which means more than one in every five dollars the company collects at year-end is already spoken for by creditors before a single GPU is depreciated (and depreciation, at $1.89 billion in Q3, ate another 52% of revenue).
Put differently: even on the raised guide, and even assuming the midpoint of an operating income number that has to double in three months, Q4 interest expense will still be about 1.4x adjusted operating income. That is a big improvement from 2.2x in Q3 and the frankly comical 25x in Q1. It is also still upside down.
To be fair, Q3 interest came in below the guided range, and the operating line is finally moving faster than the financing line. The trouble is what sits underneath the interest line.
$47 Billion And Counting
CoreWeave ended September with $46.9 billion of balance sheet debt, up from $35.1 billion at the end of June, $21.4 billion at year-end and $14.0 billion a year ago. That is $11.8 billion of net new debt in 92 days, or roughly $128 million a day, weekends included.
A few more balance sheet items worth a look:
- $10.6 billion of that debt is current, due within twelve months, against $4.1 billion of unrestricted cash (plus $2.3 billion restricted)
- Operating lease liabilities, which sit outside the debt number, rose to $18.7 billion from $8.2 billion at year-end. Add them and the fixed obligations come to $65.6 billion
- Total liabilities of $87.5 billion sit on top of $4.0 billion of equity. CNBC noted this morning that debt-to-equity was 702% at the end of June; by our math it is now about 1,165%
Why does the debt keep growing faster than the revenue? Because the business still burns cash at a spectacular rate. Operating cash flow was a respectable $1.98 billion in the quarter. Cash spent on property and equipment was $9.44 billion. The difference, $7.5 billion, is the largest quarterly cash burn in the company’s history, bringing the total to $17.9 billion for the first nine months of the year and $25.2 billion since the start of 2025. The hole was filled the usual way: $10.3 billion of new debt in the quarter, $27 billion year-to-date.
And that was before the capex pull-forward. Q3 capex came in at $14.5 billion, above the top of the company’s own $11.5-$13.5 billion guide and almost 8x the $1.85 billion of a year ago. With $16.2 billion spent in the first half, that leaves just $6-$8 billion for Q4 to land inside the new $37-$39 billion range. Note also that only $9.4 billion of that $14.5 billion was paid in cash during the quarter, even as payables and accruals fell, which means roughly $5 billion was financed some other way. One more for the 5pm call. Deploying sooner is good for revenue. It is also, by definition, borrowing sooner.
Here is what that looks like: after blowing through its own Q3 guide by $1 billion, CoreWeave’s full-year range implies capex gets cut in half in Q4. Either the spending was simply pulled forward, or the $39 billion ceiling is about to be raised again.
Which brings us to the funding question that Wall Street has been circling for a month. Regular readers will recall that Bernstein put the hole at $76 billion of incremental financing just to deliver the existing backlog: (see “Core-We’ve Got Bills To Pay“, available to pro subs), while Goldman, which had just upgraded the stock to Buy, got to a far friendlier $22.9 billion in its base scenario, a number that rested on customers prepaying 20% of contract value. Strip out the prepayments and Goldman’s own figure jumped to $36.7 billion.
Tonight CoreWeave leaned hard into that same assumption. In the company’s telling: “Our growth is supported by multiple sources of funding, including financing backed by customer contracts, operating cash flow, and approximately $9 billion in customer prepayments and deposits expected in the next three months alone.”
Roughly $9 billion of customer cash in three months would be a big deal: it is almost as much as the entire $10 billion of deferred revenue on the balance sheet today, and it goes some way toward what Wolfe Research asked for on Monday:
“Investors need neoclouds to quantify how much financing they expect to raise to execute on existing backlog. We think outlooks that communicate when and which avenues of funding will be tapped will increase investor confidence.”
It is worth remembering who those customers are, though. A prepayment from a hyperscaler with $100 billion of free cash flow is one thing. A prepayment from an AI lab that is itself raising debt to fund its compute bill is the same circular dollar taking a different route. And the rest of the toolkit is not exactly cheap: the quarter’s financing list includes $4.2 billion of converts and an at-the-market program for up to 35 million shares, which at tonight’s price raises maybe $1.8 billion. Bob Lang of Explosive Options was blunter:
“They don’t have enough cash to service all that debt,” he said. “Unless some big orders come in, unless some big money flows come in for them in the next 17, 18 months, I think this is going to be the start of the end for CoreWeave, unless somebody comes in and wants to buy them. But who wants to buy all that debt?”
Wells Fargo’s Michael Turrin, who has an Overweight rating and a $115 target, is on the other side: he sees this year’s capex as largely funded already, but even he pencils in 2027 capex of as much as $66 billion and at least $25 billion of additional debt to pay for it. When the bull case needs another $25 billion of borrowing at a 15% bond yield, the bear case more or less writes itself.
The Check Was In The Mail After All
One number did move the right way, and since it was the chart we were watching most closely going in, credit where due. Accounts payable, which had tripled in three quarters to $3.63 billion as CoreWeave took its time paying suppliers, fell by $705 million to $2.93 billion.
Accrued liabilities fell too, by $783 million to $5.64 billion, so the combined IOU pile shrank by $1.5 billion to $8.6 billion. That is still double the level of a year ago, but it is the first decline since the buildout went vertical, and it probably explains a good part of why cash capex ran so hot: some of last quarter’s bills finally got paid. With borrowed money, naturally.
Suppliers looking for the next slow payer may want to glance one ticker over. IREN’s payables hit $2.1 billion in its September quarter, up from $97 million in March.
About That $132.5 Billion Backlog
The headline backlog number, $132.5 billion, is up $28 billion in a quarter and 2.4x in a year. Impressive, but not exactly news: back in August the company had already disclosed more than $25 billion of new commitments signed in the first weeks of Q3. That suggests that in the remaining two-plus months of the quarter, CRWV added only about $3 billion on a net basis, roughly the same as the revenue that rolled off. Lumpy? Sure. But for a company whose equity story is the second derivative of bookings, a quiet August and September right before an election that turned on data centers is at least worth a raised eyebrow.
Then there is the matter of turning signatures into electrons. Contracted power jumped by more than 900 MW to 4.6 GW, but active power rose just 200 MW to 1.7 GW, after a 500 MW surge in Q2. Only 37% of what CoreWeave has signed is switched on, down from 41%.
And here is the odd part. The year-end target of more than 1.85 GW was left unchanged, which requires just 150 MW in Q4, the slowest pace in a year. Yet capex is being pulled forward because infrastructure is arriving early, and revenue is supposed to grow by more than $1 billion again. Either the power target is a layup that management chose not to raise, or the Q4 revenue step-up leans more on price than on megawatts. One for the call.
What about the politics? More than 1.3 GW of the contracted total is now outside the US (India, Indonesia and Spain got a mention), which is one way to deal with moratoria that Goldman thinks could freeze about 45% of planned US capacity. As for Texas, where Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa wants an immediate moratorium, CoreWeave has already sent a letter offering to work with her. No word yet on a reply.
A Billion More In Revenue, Twelve Billion More In Debt
So where does that leave the company that imploded a month ago and then became the market’s beta barometer for the entire AI trade?
The operating story is better than the bears (HSBC, which tore apart Goldman’s bull case last month, chief among them) expected: pricing is firm, margins are recovering, suppliers are getting paid and the Q4 guide is well ahead of the Street. CreditSights’ Jordan Chalfin, who told CNBC before the print that fundamentals and pricing were strong and the next few quarters should be supportive, looks right about the near term.
The capital structure is another matter. Coming into tonight the unsecured bonds were trading at yields the market reserves for companies it expects to restructure, and a long list of junk bonds sits one CoreWeave accident away from the same fate.
50 Park’s Adam Sarhan put the bear case this way before the print:
“If AI revenue dries up, then fair value is almost certainly lower than where they’re trading now. Where will their growth come from if not AI, and how will they service their debt if they can’t grow their way out of it?”
Tonight’s answer is that AI revenue is very much not drying up. But the arithmetic of the quarter is hard to get around: revenue grew by $1.1 billion, debt grew by $11.8 billion, and the interest bill is about to grow by another $250 million. We have been warning since last October that the AI buildout is a debt story first and a technology story second, and nothing in this report changes that. CoreWeave can grow into its balance sheet only if the bond market keeps lending at prices that make the growth worth having, and at 15%, well, that is a narrow window. The beat buys time and probably a relief rally in the bonds. It does not buy $25 billion of new 2027 financing.
Then again, when Gartner expects more than 80% of neoclouds to disappear, being the one that can still borrow counts as a moat.
We’ll update after the 5pm call, where the only questions that matter are the 2027 capex number and who is lending against it.
END
Schrödinger’s Escalation: War Trump, Peace Trump
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 11:25 PM
Authored by former CIA officer Larry Johnson
F. Scott Fitzgerald said the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still function. By that standard, Donald Trump spent Sunday and Monday proving he is a genius.
In the space of 48 hours, the President told us the war with Iran is winding down and that the military is “locked and loaded.” Strikes are “highly unlikely,” and he has picked out 38 bridges to blow up. A deal is close, and the blockade should stay. I have spent much of my career reading intelligence reports written to please several masters at once. I have never seen anyone do it this well in public, with no notes.
Meet Peace Trump
Peace Trump gave an interview to 60 Minutes on Sunday. He said he was “not looking” to escalate the war: “I don’t think there’s any reason to.” He told CNN that new strikes were “highly unlikely” to be necessary. He conceded that voters “didn’t like the war” and were angry about gas prices. Asked about JD Vance’s post blaming the war for the midterm rout, he said, “I don’t disagree with it.”
On Monday, after a meeting with Qatar’s prime minister, Peace Trump was even sunnier. “We are seeing positive momentum toward an end to this Conflict,” he wrote. Then he walked into the White House briefing room and announced that the Iranians were “talking very politely,” that there was a “good chance” of a deal, and that the war was “ending quickly.”
That is a man who has read the election returns.
Meet War Trump
War Trump appears in the same interviews, sometimes in the same paragraph. In that same CNN call, he explained that a deal “depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement.” If not, US forces have identified 38 Iranian bridges “that we can knock down in literally one hour.” On Truth Social, he announced that Task Force Iron Gate, the operation to choke off Iranian weapons shipments, “is in full force and effect,” right alongside the naval blockade.
In Washington, War Trump declared, “we are locked and loaded and ready to go.” He explained that strikes were “quite unlikely” only because Gulf allies “would prefer the status quo.” The status quo, for anyone keeping score, is a naval blockade of Iran. He insisted American troops must stay in the region or our allies “would be hurt.” He also assured us Iran “will never have a nuclear weapon,” a threat he says he has already eliminated, yet apparently one that requires a permanent garrison.
And on the war itself? It was a “very good decision,” historically speaking. “Is it a good decision for today and tomorrow? Maybe not.” It is the first time I have heard a commander in chief ask history to grade his war on a curve.
Five ways to make it all add up
In fairness to the President, I have tried to reconcile these statements. Here are the best explanations I could come up with.
- Schrödinger’s war. The war is both ending and continuing until someone opens the box. The box, presumably, is the 38 bridges.
- The war is over, militarily. It is merely continuing navally, economically and on Qeshm Island, where Iranian authorities say US strikes hit overnight on Sunday. Washington has not acknowledged them, which is one way to keep a war “highly unlikely.”
- The blockade is peace. If Gulf allies “prefer the status quo,” then the status quo must be peace. Tankers stranded, Hormuz choked and diesel at $6 a gallon is simply what peace looks like now.
- Iran is polite, and Rubio is rude. Trump says the Iranians are “talking very politely.” His own Secretary of State said Sunday night that the two sides are not “at the verge of a breakthrough,” that Iran’s demands are “unacceptable” and that the talks have not been “very productive.” Perhaps Marco is being cc’d on a different email thread.
- Vance was right, and wrong. Trump said, “I don’t disagree” with Vance’s verdict that the war cost Republicans the election. He also told reporters that “a lot of people did not like Vance’s comments on Iran.” Both can be true if the people who did not like them include the President.
My favorite came last. Asked why he has been predicting for months that the war would end soon, Trump denied it. “I made the claim that they won’t have a nuclear weapon,” he said. Then, in the same appearance, he repeated that the war was “ending quickly.” That is not a contradiction. It is a tradition.
The audiences, not the policy
The serious explanation is less amusing. Trump is not describing one policy. He is talking to four audiences at once.
- American voters fired his party last Tuesday over the war and gas prices. They get Peace Trump: momentum, politeness, a war “ending quickly.”
- Tehran gets War Trump: locked and loaded, 38 bridges, the blockade tightening under Iron Gate. That is leverage, or at least an attempt at it.
- The Gulf monarchies are terrified of another round of Iranian missiles on their oil terminals. They get the “status quo,” meaning no new strikes but no lifting of the blockade either.
- Benjamin Netanyahu, who is reportedly calling Trump every day to push him to resume the war, gets the reassurance that Iran “will never have a nuclear weapon” and that American forces are staying put.
The trouble with talking to everyone is that everyone hears everything. Tehran heard Peace Trump too, and concluded that he wants out. Mohsen Rezaei, fresh from three hours with Putin, told Washington to “fold your hand” and dismissed the whole business as “imaginary” negotiations. Iran’s chief negotiator accused Israel of dragging the United States deeper into the war. Those are not the words of a side that feels pressured to sign “a very strong agreement” this week.
Next week, Trump expects to meet Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in China, with Iran on the agenda. Both men will arrive knowing exactly which Trump they would prefer to deal with, and how to encourage him.
Pick One
There is an old military maxim that you cannot be strong everywhere at once. The same is true of messages. A president who threatens and pleads in the same breath does not project strength. He projects indecision, and every adversary at the table can tell the difference.
So here is my modest proposal for the President. Pick one Trump and stick with him. If it is Peace Trump, lift the blockade, take Qatar’s mediation seriously and stop counting bridges. If it is War Trump, explain to the voters who just fired the Republican Congress why they should pay $6 a gallon for diesel for another winter. What he cannot do much longer is be both.
Until then, the official US position on the war with Iran appears to be that it is ending quickly, it was a very good decision, it may not be a good decision today, it is highly unlikely to resume, and we are locked and loaded. Fitzgerald would be impressed. The Iranians are merely taking notes.
END
REPO POOL//MAJOR PROBLEMS:
“At The Cusp”: The Next Repo Crisis Is Already On The 2027 Calendar, And Goldman Just Published The Date
TREASURIES FOR CASH:
Goldman Sachs (via strategist Isabella Rosenberg’s Nov. 9, 2026 note) is warning that U.S. bank reserves are already near a critical threshold (“at the cusp”), setting the stage for potential repo-market funding stress and volatility in 2027—similar in spirit to the September 2019 repo spike—while the Fed is simultaneously hiking rates and preparing to buy T-bills again.
zerohedge.com
Key context and meaning
- Repo market basics: The repurchase (“repo”) market is the short-term plumbing of the financial system. Banks, dealers, and others borrow/lend cash overnight against collateral (mainly Treasuries). When reserves get scarce relative to demand, repo rates can spike sharply, funding can seize up, and broader market volatility follows. The 2019 episode is the classic recent example.
- Current setup (late 2026): Monetary “plumbing” has been calm for most of the year (attention was elsewhere—Iran-related issues and the AI boom). Reserves + RRP as a percentage of bank assets have declined meaningfully and sit near levels historically associated with stress points, especially around debt-limit dynamics. A Goldman chart circulating with the ZeroHedge piece shows this ratio having fallen back toward the lower end of its recent range. zerohedge.com
- Goldman’s specific call: The Fed is expected to restart modest Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs—essentially buying T-bills to stabilize/manage the level of reserves) as soon as November 2026, starting small (~$10 billion/month) and potentially scaling later. The goal is to keep reserves around ~11% of bank assets. Even so, Goldman sees a bumpier dollar-funding path in 2027, with elevated risk of tighter conditions in the second half. Drivers include:
- Higher net Treasury bill supply that non-Fed buyers must absorb.
- Debt-ceiling/TGA (Treasury General Account) swings: a ceiling constraint (possibly Q1 2027) could temporarily ease conditions via TGA drawdown, followed by a sharper reverse when the TGA is rebuilt—potentially amplifying rate volatility (as seen in past episodes).
- Regulatory and structural shifts (including the approach of mandatory central clearing for much of the repo market, with a mid-2027 deadline) that can affect capacity, costs, and SOFR behavior.
- The irony highlighted in coverage: In the same month the Fed is talking about (or pricing in) further rate hikes (Waller floating 50 bps amid hotter CPI; December hike odds rising), it is also expected to start adding reserves via bill purchases. “Raising the price of money with one hand, adding to its quantity with the other.”
Why “the next repo crisis is already on the 2027 calendar”Goldman is not predicting an automatic 2019-style blow-up, but it is explicitly flagging that reserves are near the kink in the demand curve where small shocks (supply, TGA rebuild, quarter-end, regulatory deadlines, etc.) can produce outsized moves in funding rates. The “date” is effectively the 2027 calendar itself—especially around debt-limit resolution and the second-half funding backdrop—rather than one single day. ZeroHedge framed the Goldman note in characteristically alarmist language; the underlying research is more about rising volatility risk in the plumbing than a guaranteed crisis.
m.gelonghui.com
In short: the headline means the quiet period for money-market plumbing is ending. Reserves are low enough that 2027 looks structurally more fragile for short-term funding markets, and Goldman has put concrete numbers and timing around the Fed’s response and the residual risks.
END
DR DANIEL LACALLE
Lacalle: Data Center Moratorium Madness Is Beijing’s Biggest Gift
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Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 08:00 PM
Barely 48 hours after the midterms, Bernie Sanders posted five words that should alarm anyone who cares about American prosperity and security. “National data center moratorium now.”
Representative Yassamin Ansari went further and said that pausing AI development should be a Day One priority for the new Democratic majority in the House. The vehicle is ready.
The Artificial Intelligence Data Center Moratorium Act, introduced by Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, would impose an immediate federal freeze on the construction of new data centers and the expansion of existing ones until Congress passes comprehensive legislation. In practice that means an open-ended ban, conditional on Washington agreeing on everything from labor policy to civil rights to the meaning of “safe AI”. Anyone who has watched Congress try to pass a budget knows how long that would take.
This is the most self-destructive industrial policy proposal in the developed world since Germany decided to shut down its nuclear plants while importing Russian gas. And Beijing could not have designed it better.
The problem did not start with the midterms, and it is not limited to one party. In Texas, Republican Governor Greg Abbott paused grid approvals for data centers of 75 MW or more in August and then halted environmental permits in September. The Texas pause alone put almost 20% of the entire US data center pipeline at risk of delay. Now Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has promised to turn that pause into a formal moratorium.. Local opposition blocked or delayed around $198 billion of US data center projects in the first half of 2026 alone, against total AI capital expenditure of $690 to $725 billion this year.
While American towns vote to ban the infrastructure of the future, China treats compute as a strategic priority on the same level as energy and defense. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reports that national intelligent computing capacity rose 146% year on year. Beijing’s new five-year plan targets 3.8 trillion yuan of cumulative investment in information infrastructure. China’s data center capacity is expected to grow from 32 GW at the end of 2025 to 40 GW at the end of 2026 and above 60 GW by 2030.
The energy behind that expansion is the part Western activists prefer to ignore. China added a record 430 GW of wind and solar capacity in 2025 and, at the same time, commissioned 78 GW of coal power, the highest annual figure in a decade. Total installed generating capacity rose 16.1% in a single year to 3.89 TW.
Beijing does not ask whether it should build data centers or power plants. It builds both, simultaneously, and plans the grid around the compute. A 100 MW Chinese facility can be completed in less than twelve months, compared to around 24 months in the United States and 42 months in Germany.
Defenders of the moratoriums argue that the United States is so far ahead that it can afford to pause. That is a dangerous misreading of the data. Yes, the American lead is evident. Since 2022, 72% of the world’s AI compute has ended up in the United States and only about 10% in China, and the US share of newly acquired compute rose to 78% in the first half of 2026.
But in a technology race, the stock of capacity matters less than the rate of addition. Model scaling, inference at scale and the deployment of applications in industry, healthcare and defense depend on how fast new compute comes online. China’s binding constraint is access to advanced chips, which US export controls deliberately restrict. America’s binding constraint is power and politics. The moratorium movement takes the one bottleneck Beijing cannot fix with money and adds a second one that Washington imposes on itself.
Every year of delay in Ohio, Texas or New York is a year in which Huawei, domestic Chinese chipmakers and state-backed clusters get closer while American capacity stalls.
The usual justification for bans is the electricity bill. The real problem is a lack of supply. The US interconnection queue holds roughly 2,600 GW of generation and storage projects, more than double the existing grid, and the median wait from application to commercial operation is about five years.
When demand rises and supply is blocked, prices rise. The solution is to unblock supply, accelerate permits for gas, nuclear and transmission, and require large users to bring or pay for their own generation. Banning demand is the policy equivalent of fixing a housing shortage by forbidding families from having children. It addresses the symptom by destroying the source of growth.
Artificial intelligence is already improving targeting, logistics, electronic warfare, intelligence analysis and autonomous systems. Compute is to modern defense what steel output was to the twentieth century. A relative slowdown in American capacity narrows the margin of superiority on which deterrence depends, and it does so at the worst possible moment, when Beijing is offering its own models, standards and cheap infrastructure to the Global South. Countries that cannot get American compute on time will get Chinese compute instead, along with Chinese standards, Chinese data governance and Chinese political leverage.
The Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez bill even includes a ban on exports of AI computing infrastructure to countries that lack equivalent safety and environmental laws. Put together, the message to allies would be devastating. America would refuse to build at home and refuse to sell abroad. Beijing would be delighted to fill both gaps.
Europe is watching the midterm results with a mix of political satisfaction and strategic blindness. Many European capitals see the Democratic gains as a welcome rebuke to Trump. They should look at the numbers instead. Europe accounts for less than 5% of global AI computing power. Its own public backlash has already delayed or cancelled about $42 billion of European data center investment. With the AI Act, some of the highest industrial electricity prices in the developed world and no private capital engine comparable to Silicon Valley, Europe depends on American models and American infrastructure. If that infrastructure arrives later and costs more, Europe falls further behind, and if China closes the gap in dual-use AI, European security, which still rests on American technological leadership, erodes with it. Short-term relief over tariffs does not compensate for a long-term loss of the technological edge. As usual in Europe, ideology is trumping strategic economic and defense interests.
The data center backlash is a perfect example of the precautionary principle turned into economic suicide. Every concern raised by opponents, from water use to grid reliability to electricity bills, has a solution that involves building more, not less. More generation, more transmission, faster permits, clear rules on who pays for grid upgrades, and on-site power for the largest loads.
A moratorium solves none of those problems. It simply guarantees that the most important infrastructure of the century gets built somewhere else, under a regime that does not care about American ratepayers, American workers or American values. The United States won the internet, the cloud and the smartphone because it built faster than anyone else. If it now decides to stop building, it should not be surprised when the future is written by China.
ZH: Bettors aren’t convinced the madness spreads quite that fast: Polymarket currently sees just a 22% chance that Texas, home to almost a fifth of the US data center pipeline, turns Abbott’s pause into a formal moratorium by the end of 2027…
END
ANTHROPIC
Anthropic Bankers Push For Higher IPO Valuation Amid Warnings That Weak Debut Could Prick AI Bubble
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 08:00 AM
Nasdaq futures rallied Wednesday morning after CoreWeave’s earnings showed strong sales growth, lifting Taiwanese and Korean equities overnight. Improving sentiment around the AI trade is emerging after last week’s Democratic sweep sparked crisis fears about potential data center moratoriums.
Nadsaq Futs
Ahead of Anthropic’s mega IPO, expected next Thursday, sentiment toward the AI trade must improve. An underperforming IPO could mark the top of the AI bubble, according to Jack Selby, who runs the venture capital firm Copper Sky and managing partner in Peter Thiel’s family office, in an interview with Bloomberg TV earlier today.
UBS Hyperscalers
Morgan Stanley Neocloud Basket
Anthropic’s IPO roadshow began Tuesday as the “fair value” of what could be the biggest IPO ever slid from $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion, then to $1.2 trillion. Dario’s chatbot company filed an amended S-1 yesterday revealing plans to sell 825 million shares at $70 to $78 each under the ticker ANT, with pricing set for next Wednesday night and trading set to begin on Thursday.
And now, a new report from The Financial Times says that bankers on the IPO want to boost Anthropic’s valuation to north of $1.5 trillion.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which are leading the IPO, expect pricing could exceed the $70-to-$78 range because of strong demand.
The S-1 showed that Anthropic aims to raise as much as $64 billion through the public offering, with an overallotment option adding almost $10 billion. Google, Nvidia and Microsoft have separately committed a combined $26 billion through a private placement at the IPO price. Higher pricing could push total fundraising well above $100 billion, exceeding SpaceX’s offering from early summer.
“Three of the company’s backers said Anthropic was now focused on raising as much as possible via the listing to support its heavy spending on computing power, rather than maximizing its valuation,” the FT reported.
Morningstar analysts put the estimated fair equity value at $1.7 trillion, while Hyperliquid’s pre-IPO Anthropic contract implies a valuation of around $1.8 trillion on Wednesday morning.
Returning to Selby’s interview with Bloomberg earlier this morning, he warned:
“An underperforming Anthropic IPO has to be a very prominent player in what will be a pretty massive correction in the market with respect to AI. If the most anticipated AI company’s IPO falls very short of its projected valuation, and just imagine where it’s going to go after the lockups expire.”
Supporting the market between now and next Thursday is the only thing on the minds of anyone with skin in the AI ecosystem game (so everyone), but as The FT notes, citing ‘one major investor’, “a weekend is an eternity in this market.”
END
TEXAS
Rand Paul Slams Texas Governor-Elect’s ‘Venezuelan Socialist’ Plan To Freeze Electricity Rates
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 07:00 PM
Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) took aim at Texas Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa on Tuesday over her pledge to freeze electricity rates on her first day in office, calling it a move “out of the Venezuelan socialist playbook.”
“This will not end well,” Paul wrote, linking to a Fox News report on whether Hinojosa has the legal authority to do it. The post passed 750,000 views within hours.
Hinojosa, the Austin Democrat who unseated Abbott on Nov. 3, says she will act as soon as she is sworn in on Jan. 19. “Within an hour of taking the oath of office, I will declare a high-cost emergency in the state of Texas and issue an emergency executive order to: one, suspend the gas and diesel tax; and two, freeze electricity rates,” she said in a statement quoted by the Texas Tribune.
Paul followed up by quoting an account of what price controls did to Venezuela, from rice to toilet paper, and to its electricity sector:
A freeze would collide with the market Texas built in 1999, when Senate Bill 7 opened most of the state to retail electricity choice starting in 2002: most Texans buy power from competing retail providers, and the Legislature wrote into the law that “the production and sale of electricity is not a monopoly,” Fox noted.
Nick Loris, president of the free-market group C3 Solutions, told Fox that the Texas Disaster Act “lets the governor declare disasters,” but that “there is a high degree of skepticism, both from courts but also from state policymakers” that high power prices qualify. Any lawsuit, he said, would likely come from “those affected parties,” and the economics cut against the plan: “If the electricity suppliers are not covering the costs that they incur, that’s going to leave them worse off.”
Texas Republicans are already moving to box her in: state Rep. Brian Harrison has urged Abbott to call a special session to curb the governor’s emergency powers before Hinojosa takes office, as we reported.
New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill ran on the same day-one promise.
Her office said the executive order she signed on Jan. 20 “freezes rate hikes,” but its terms say it “uses existing funds to offset electricity bill increases coming in June” and lets the state’s Board of Public Utilities “pause or modify utility actions that could further increase bills.”
Hinojosa has also said Texas should stop building data centers until new laws to protect Texans are in place, a pledge that came the same day the Nasdaq slid on fears of Democratic moratoriums on the AI buildout.
ZH: The data center pledge is the one bettors can actually trade: Polymarket sees just a 22% chance that Texas enacts a formal data center moratorium by the end of 2027, suggesting traders expect the same courts and Republican lawmakers lining up against the rate freeze to box in the AI pause too…
END
Terror In The Skies: Twice Deported Illegal Alien Attempts To Storm Cockpit Of United Airlines Flight
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 07:05 AM
A twice-deported Honduran illegal alien claimed to have a bomb and attempted to storm the cockpit of a Newark-to-New Orleans United flight on Monday night.
Fox News’ Bill Melugin reports that New Orleans-bound United Flight 2174, carrying 46 passengers and six crew members, departed from Newark International Airport. Midflight, the pilots radioed air traffic control to report an attempted cockpit breach, triggering a “Level 4” threat alert.
Melugin said Flight 2174 landed at MSY (New Orleans airport), where the deranged illegal alien was arrested and charged with felony bomb threat, terroristic threats, and disorderly conduct.
A separate report from the New York Post revealed air traffic control audio describing the illegal alien as a Hispanic man who “spoke nearly no English.” The audio also revealed that the man changed into all-black clothing before attempting to storm the cockpit.
“Per DHS – Gomez-Alberto crossed the Texas border illegally in 2011 and was deported, then illegally re-entered through the New Mexico border in 2014 and was deported a second time. He illegally re-entered the country a third time in 2019, was arrested by Border Patrol, but was released from custody after an immigration judge ordered his release,” Melugin said.
The attempted cockpit breach raises an alarming national security question: How did a twice-deported illegal alien remain in the country and board a commercial flight, and how did immigration officials or aviation security personnel miss this flight risk?
Additional questions:
- Were any Federal Air Marshals aboard Flight 2174?
- How many air marshals were flying missions nationwide that night? How many supervisors were flying?
- What did DHS know about the suspect before he boarded?
- Did passenger vetting flag him?
Perhaps the federal government should put twice-deported illegals on TSA’s ‘No Fly List’ …
END
Iran Hawk Bessent Now Lives Behind A Military Gate As Threats Reach ‘More Than Advanced Stage’
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 09:45 AM
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has moved out of his Washington-area home and onto a US military base because of Iranian threats against him, the New York Times reported Tuesday.
Three people told the Times that US officials concluded in recent weeks that Iranian plotting against current and former American officials had reached a more advanced stage, based in part on intelligence about threats to Bessent himself.
A senior administration official told Fox News the threats against Bessent’s life had reached “more than an advanced stage,” and declined to say when he moved.
The Treasury Department, confirming the move, said Bessent “will not be deterred by the Iranian regime’s threats” and remains committed to the pressure campaign against Tehran.
Bessent has run Operation Economic Outcast since Aug. 24, a campaign he says is meant “to sever every economic lifeline that sustains this tyrannical regime until Tehran stands alone.” Launching it, he declared: “America is no longer managing the Iranian threat. We are ending it.”
In September, Treasury sanctioned all of Iran’s remaining airlines, with Bessent warning anyone still doing business with them: “You are at risk of being cut off from the global financial system.” On Nov. 4, a day after Republicans were crushed in midterms widely seen as a referendum on the Iran war, he announced another round, as we reported: “As we have said many times, under Operation Economic Outcast, you are either with us or against us.”
Last week, as we noted, MEMRI flagged an Iranian video that calls Bessent “Captain Corruptor” and warns that he “has booked himself a first class ticket to Hell and his ride will soon arrive at his door.”
In a memo to Secretary of State Marco Rubio last month, Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton warned that “Iran has substantially increased efforts to target U.S. personnel” and that “the lethal plotting efforts by the Iranians against U.S. citizens have reached advanced stages” in the Middle East and certain other countries.
Bessent and Rubio rode a decoy Air Force One out of Ankara after the NATO summit in July while Trump secretly switched planes. A senior administration official told ABC News that Trump’s switch was driven by intelligence that an Iranian terror cell had slipped into Turkey with a shoulder-fired missile.
“Worse than fake news is fake intelligence,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X in response. And as we noted in August, a US official told the Washington Post the Turkey warning was “Israeli-derived, not US-generated, and viewed as low confidence.”
Bessent joins a growing list of Trump officials living behind base gates, several of whom moved into military housing last year over threats from the left. Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth live at Fort McNair, then-Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem moved onto a base, Stephen Miller, now White House chief of staff, was relocated last year, and then-Attorney General Pam Bondi followed in March after threats from cartels and political critics.
That same month, unidentified drones were reportedly spotted over Fort McNair on a single night, prompting officials to weigh moving Rubio and Hegseth.
Rubio said Tuesday at a G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in Paris that “the economic campaign (against Iran) is so devastating that right now there is no need for major combat operations.” His forecast for Tehran: “The economic pressure on Iran is going to get even worse.”
END
BEER
America’s Beer Slump Summed Up In One Chart
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 01:35 PM
Bank of America analysts spot a sobering milestone for America’s beer industry: shipments are on track to fall below 1980 levels this year as stretched household budgets collide with changing drinking habits. The explosion of GLP-1 drug demand, cannabis products, and growing health concerns about booze are adding pressure on demand. 
BofA consumer staples analysts led by Peter Galbo outlined three key industry takeaways in a Tuesday note following their attendance at the annual Beer Insights Seminar, hosted by Beer Marketer’s Insights (BMI) in New York City:
- STZ/Hispanic consumer remains top of mind following a mixed weekend for immigration policy. STZ traded higher today, suggesting investors interpreted the developments favorably, while Nicholas Fink reiterated that the Hispanic consumer remains a long-term tailwind for the portfolio.
- Growth continues to shift beyond traditional beer and into RTDs, which continue to see strong growth, while the emerging “ade” segment could represent the next meaningful growth pocket.
- Optimism around NA beer remains high, with Athletic Brewing seeing a path for the category to ultimately reach ~20% of total beer.
Shifting focus to the broader industry, Galbo said US beer shipments fell 3.9% through September. He cited data from BMI that showed if this trajectory holds, this would send annual shipments to 176 million barrels, below the 178 million shipped in 1980. 
Galbo said BMI’s data show a combination of financial pressure and changing drinking habits. Higher prices, inflation, and weaker consumer sentiment are weighing on demand, while ready-to-drink cocktails are capturing beer demand. He pointed out that hemp-derived THC beverages, GLP-1 drugs and increasingly negative sentiment toward alcohol are adding further headwinds.
Within the industry, the pressure is uneven. Constellation Brands and AB InBev gained volume share, while Molson Coors and Boston Beer lost the most. Growth remains concentrated in canned cocktails and select nonalcoholic beer brands.
“Finally, the industry is undergoing a changing of the guard: all five of the largest U.S. beer suppliers have changed or announced changes to CEOs over roughly the past 15 months as companies manage core beer declines and search for growth in adjacencies,” the analyst said.
More broadly, Italian spirits group Campari, maker of Aperol, Wild Turkey, SKYY vodka and Grand Marnier, reported an unexpected decline in third-quarter North American sales late last month.
“In North America, we are still growing, just to be clear, but the overall growth trajectory for this year is being impacted by the US,” CEO Simon Hunt told analysts.
The shift in consumer habits away from alcohol comes as we recently cited a report that found daily marijuana use in the US has surpassed daily alcohol consumption among adults.
US Army Soldier Arrested In England Over Russian Spying – And Where He Worked Is The Alarming Part
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 06:45 AM
A 41-year-old US Army soldier was arrested near Gloucester, England, on Tuesday on suspicion of spying for Russia while assigned to NATO’s Allied Rapid Reaction Corps, the alliance’s British-led rapid-deployment headquarters.
London’s Metropolitan Police said the arrest was made as part of a Counter Terrorism Policing investigation, on suspicion of offenses under sections 1 and 3 of the National Security Act 2023: obtaining, copying, retaining or disclosing “protected information,” and assisting a foreign intelligence service. “The country to which the allegations relate is Russia,” the force said. The soldier, who has not been named, is in custody at a London police station, and officers are searching two addresses in Gloucestershire.
A senior NATO military official confirmed to NBC News that the American service member “was assigned to NATO’s” ARRC, whose headquarters sits at Imjin Barracks on the outskirts of Gloucester. Three people familiar with the matter told the network the same.
“This significant arrest and investigation is a result of close collaboration between UK and US authorities,” said Deputy Assistant Commissioner Vicki Evans, Britain’s senior national coordinator for counter-terrorism policing. “The allegations are serious and our investigation is very much ongoing.”
Police said the case is not connected to any other ongoing counter-terrorism investigation.
“Insider threats are real”
The Army’s own counterintelligence chief described the suspect as a senior soldier with access to sensitive material. “The alleged conduct of a senior soldier, entrusted with sensitive information, is a sobering reminder that insider threats are real and persistent,” said Brig. Gen. Sean Stinchon, commanding general of US Army Counterintelligence Command, according to Fox News.
FBI Director Kash Patel called the arrest “important,” saying it “involves allegations of espionage, which is of the utmost concern to the United States and our allies.” He said the FBI “has no tolerance for anyone who breaks their oath to the United States,” and thanked UK Counter Terrorism Policing, MI5, UK Defence Counter Intelligence and Army Counterintelligence Command.
Patel used the moment to tout his bureau’s numbers: “167 counterintelligence and espionage arrests from this FBI over the last 21 months – a 53% increase,” he said, as quoted by the Daily Star. He made a similar claim earlier this year, when the bureau said espionage arrests were up by about half. That boast sits awkwardly beside NPR’s report last month that the FBI’s spy-hunting squads have been hit with deep cuts.
Gloucestershire again
The arrest is the latest security scare in a county that has become a pressure point for US forces in Britain. Gloucestershire is home to RAF Fairford, where an alleged Iran-linked plot in September led to a string of arrests and, last month, two men charged under the same National Security Act with assisting Iranian intelligence.
As we reported Tuesday, the Pentagon then scrambled tankers out of a second British base, RAF Mildenhall, weeks after bombers left Fairford; a US official confirmed to NBC that several aircraft departed Mildenhall after security was raised.
Britain has also stepped up arrests of suspected Russian agents, including three alleged spies held during Trump’s state visit last year.
As of Wednesday, no charge had been announced, and the soldier’s rank and duties at the ARRC had not been made public.
KING NEWS
| The King Report November 11, 2026 Issue 7867 | Independent View of the News |
| Oct CPI 0.4% m/m, 0.3% m/m expected; Core 0.3% m/m, 0.2% m/m expected. Energy increased 0.7% in October with gasoline +1.0% and electricity +0.9%. Nat gas is -0.8%. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf @charliebilello: The most absurd number in CPI? According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 35% over the last 4 years… https://x.com/charliebilello/status/2120174402847322505 Fed Governor Chris Waller, from London, before October CPI release: “I would still support a 25 basis point increase in the FOMC’s policy rate at our December meeting. However, if inflation comes in substantially higher than I expect, more robust action by the FOMC may be called for… If the October CPI inflation data out later today are similar to the past two monthly readings—with core CPI inflation around 0.3 percent or even higher—then a stronger policy move may be needed. In that case, I believe a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting. Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20261110a.htm @NickTimiraos: During the Q&A with Fed gov Waller, an exchange on how to reconcile BLS data in the rearview mirror with what’s happening out the front window on energy prices…. Waller: The oil price will come back down, but I’m telling you diesel prices are not coming back down any time soon. You don’t have refining capacity… https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/2120124327869997069 KPMG Chief Economist @DianeSwonk: CPI was hot with way too many things rising in price, especially for those who must focus on necessities. The three-month annualized pace soared to 4.4% its hottest since June. We lost CPI last year in October due to 6-week government shutdown. Our interpolation of the data shows CPI rising 4.1% from a year ago, well above the avg hourly earnings. That is why wage earners feel the blow to their purchasing power. Food, electricity, and fuel oil all up. Baby formula largest surge on record, a blow to costs of having children. Beef and snacks up. Cattle stocks slim & shipping costs up up up. The core CPI, jumped 0.3% for 3rd month in row, 0.1% above pace needed to achieve price stability, let alone cool inflation. The supper core services, which understates the PCE index, surged at a 5.5% three-month annualized pace, up from 4.6% in September. The components that feed into the @federalreserve preferred gauge, the PCE index, will be HOTTER… Nvidia Intervened in US Probe of Megaspeed Chip Smuggling – BBG In late summer 2025, Nvidia’s Tim Teter called Commerce Under Secretary Jeffrey Kessler, who oversees US chip export curbs, to ask about the Megaspeed investigation, according to people familiar with the matter… Specifically, Teter wanted to know whether Kessler’s Bureau of Industry and Security was involved in the Singapore government’s recent detention of Alice Huang, a Megaspeed executive… But Nvidia’s tabulations, as relayed to the US government, undercounted the number of chips it had sold to Megaspeed via hardware partners by 50,000 units, according to trade records analyzed by Bloomberg. That’s worth billions of dollars… https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/nvidia-intervened-us-probe-megaspeed-212826572.html FT: Alleged Chinese spy linked to Nvidia chief pitched AI chip deals to investors Alice Huang boasted of having access to Nvidia GPUs and her connection to Alibaba Kang Wei, Alice Huang’s business partner, also serves on the board of Guilin Bank, according to corporate records, a state-controlled bank whose majority investor is the province’s transportation authority… https://www.ft.com/content/5d8c1e1d-6ce0-4eb4-9f5c-722fa5c4841d?syn-25a6b1a6=1 The Information’s @jingyanghk: Alice & Jensen have known each other since at least 2023. By 2023, when Alice launched her chip biz with no prior background in tech, she quickly established her credibility by boasting her chuminess with Jensen. She told people that Jensen celebrated her birthday every year. https://x.com/jingyanghk/status/2120108355691872528/photo/1 How exactly did the two Huangs met? We find out that Alice’s husband Kang Wei 康伟 got to know Jensen in the 2010s through gaming businesses. https://x.com/jingyanghk/status/2120108358485303772 This is how Alice Huang, her sister and husband, Century Litong, and Megaspeed are linked to Nvidia. https://x.com/jingyanghk/status/2120113819376902479 @YashengHuang: One difficulty for Jensen is having to explain his insistence to sell to Megaspeed when there was a huge backlog of orders for his chips. He could have sold his chips to these customers easily and as lucratively rather than getting himself into this complicated situation. @cspan: @RepBrianMast (R-FL) on Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: “If Jensen Haung was giving information to this individual that turns out was a Chinese spy … that put national security at risk.” https://x.com/cspan/status/2120204152273789303 All the traders and momentum investors that manically bought stocks, notably trading sardines (AI and Fangs), got caned on Tuesday. NQZs hit a low of 27,590.00 (-424.50) at 8:42 ET. Conditioned traders and pro (pump & dump) traders eagerly bought. NQZs soared to 28,090.00 (+75.50) at 10:01 ET. The pro dump appeared, as we warned. NQZs fell to 27,516.00 at 12:41 ET; the afternoon rally appeared. NQZs trudged up to 27,827.75 at 15:28 ET. After a modest retreat, NQZs jumped to 27,897.00 at 15:52 ET but fell to 27,836.00 at 16:00 ET. The S&P 500 Index opened 36.85 points lower (7513.09) and quickly fell another 23 handles. The index chopped sideways for about 20 minutes and then rallied to 7543.92 at 10:05 ET. The pro dump began; the S&P 500 Index fell to 7470.43 at 12:41 ET. The afternoon rally took the index to 7519.22 at 14:50 ET. After a retrenchment to 7501.96, the S&P 500 Index rallied to 7536.02 at 15:52 ET. The S&P 500 Index then fell to 7519.91 at 15:59 ET and closed at 7520.93, -0.38%. NY Fed: Aggregate nominal household debt balances expanded in the third quarter of 2026, by $334 billion, a 1.8% increase from 2026Q2. Balances stood at $19.1 trillion, up $5 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession… Mortgage balances… rose by $257 billion during the third quarter of 2026 and totaled $13.4 trillion at the end of September… Non-housing debt balances grew by $55 billion, or 1.1%, from 2026Q2. Auto loan balances rose by $21 billion (1.2%), and credit card balances increased by $22 billion (1.7%). Student loan balances edged up by $5 billion (0.3%). Other balances, which include retail cards and consumer finance loans, rose by $7 billion to $575 billion… https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/householdcredit/data/pdf/hhdc_2026q3.pdf 71% of Americans say their financial situation is stagnating or getting worse, Achieve survey finds https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/71-of-americans-say-their-financial-situation-is-stagnating-or-getting-worse-achieve-survey-finds-302934473.html “It’s the economy, stupid!” And we mean the real economy, the pocketbooks of average people. Positive aspects of previous session SP Financials +0.49%, Cons Discret +0.46%, Energy +0.32%. Consumer Staples +0.22%, DJTA +0.1 Dec WTI Oil -$0.47; Jan Brent -$0.58; Dec Diesel -6.05¢; Dec Gasoline -2.67¢ at 16:13 ET Negative aspects of previous session S&P 500 -0.38%, DJIA -0.3%, Nas 100 -0.6%%, Nasdaq -0.74%, SOX Index -0.35% USZs declined as much as 1 26/32. 10-year auction ($42B) 5.020%, WI 5.010%. The 2-year yield jumped 20bps! SP Industrials Info Tech -1.4%, Materials -0.55%, Utes -0.23%, Comm Services -0.15%, Real Estate -0.11%, Industrials -0.08% Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is the bond market corrective rally over? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7511.64 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7543.57 (10:05 ET); 7470.43 (12:41 ET) BBG’s @JZBleiberg: At least 11 National Security Agency and US Cyber Command workers died by suicide over roughly the past year, according to US officials and public records, a greater number than previously known… The unusual spate of suicides at agencies that conduct electronic spying and hacking operations on US adversaries has prompted White House and congressional staff to question their leaders behind closed doors, officials told @business… intelligence officers and government hackers whose workload has surged in the past year because of foreign conflicts. . Fox: Jim Jordan becomes new House GOP leader after closed-door vote, defeating Steve Scalise Senate Republicans re-elect John Thune as leader after midterm shellacking https://trib.al/iWsbgvm (This vote result shows Thune and most GOP Senators have contempt and enmity for GOP voters.) Today – After the decline on Tuesday due to CPI and Nvidia, the usual suspects will play for a rally. Barring negative news, traders want to buy stocks and push them higher. ESZs +25.75; NQZs +186.25, USZs -5/32, Dec WTI +$0.41, Dec Gas +1.02¢, ¥/$ 158.70 at 20:02 ET This is Treasury Auction Week: $25B of 30s on Thursday S&P 500 50-day MA: 7673; 100-day MA: 7620; 200-day MA: 7329 (Close 7520.93 -0.38%) Nasdaq 100 50-day MA: 29,567; 100-day MA: 29,409; 200-day MA: 28.005 (Close 27,740.80, +-0.6%) DJIA 50-day MA: 52,203, 100-day MA: 52,425; 200-day MA: 50,707 (Close 52,231.89 -0.3%) (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) CBS: Susie Wiles’ old lobbying firm made $186 million under Trump. Now it’s caught in MAGA’s feud. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/susie-wiles-ballard-partners-trump-maga-feud/ Explosive House report exposes failures it says allowed Epstein’s abuse to continue for years James Comer’s investigation alleged conflicts of interest among federal prosecutors and criticized work-release privileges… Matthew Menchel, a senior federal prosecutor who recommended resolving Epstein’s case through a non-prosecution agreement, previously had a romantic relationship with Lilly Ann Sanchez, who later represented Epstein. Menchel did not recuse himself from the investigation and continued communicating and meeting with Epstein after the agreement, according to documents cited by the committee… His privileges included working at the Florida Science Foundation, which the committee described as a sham organization, traveling in private vehicles accompanied by paid off-duty sheriff’s deputies, meeting visitors without continuous monitoring and visiting his Palm Beach residence… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/explosive-house-report-exposes-failures-says-allowed-epsteins-abuse-continue-years Happy Veterans’ Day to all who served and their families! | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Meet The Woman Who Helped Derail A $5 Billion Maryland Data Center (And The NGO Sphere Allegedly Behind The Scenes)
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 09:20 PM
A far-left Maryland activist helped derail a proposed $5 billion data center campus at a 90-acre abandoned mall site in Landover, Prince George’s County, just east of Washington, DC. The activist’s alleged connections to an NGO linked to China-based Neville Roy Singham should warrant scrunity from national security circles over potential foreign influence operations penetrating the local level to derail US infrastructure projects. 
Meet Taylor Frazier McCollum, the registered agent of “MYSTICAL MEDICINALS” (as publicly avaiable filings show) and turned far-left activist, who successfully gathered over 25,000 signatures to defeat a major data center buildout in Landover that was set to begin breaking ground between 2026 and 2027.
McCollum was recently interviewed by the University of Maryland’s independent, student-run newspaper, The Diamondback, which noted she has may have ties to Marxist multimillionaire Singham’s Party for Socialism and Liberation branch in the nation’s Capital. 
The Diamondback reported:
A few weeks after Frazier McCollum published the petition, members of the District of Columbia’s Party for Socialism and Liberation reached out in hopes of championing the cause as a coalition. Party member Yifan Huang then interviewed Frazier McCollum and posted a video on the party’s social media in September.
Huang called Frazier McCollum a “fighter,” citing her petition, thorough research, and on-the-ground campaigning to halt the data center.
After the video gained traction, Huang said they shifted their attention tomobilizing Landover citizens, with the intention of turning “people into history makers.”
Staci Hartwell, a former Qualified Data Center Task Force member and consultant for Tesla, became a mentor for Frazier McCollum. Hartwell worked with Frazier McCollum to focus on the facts and amplify community voices by promoting voting initiatives.
Hartwell, who works alongside the PSL’s local chapter, emphasized the need to promote similar messaging alongside other activists and advocates.
Frazier McCollum was an essential piece of the puzzle to advance the issues with data centers around the state, Hartwell said
NPR News covered McCollum’s big win against the proposed data center and acknowledged that she did not do it alone, but had help:
She found herself in a coalition of socialists, environmentalists, people angry about their electric bills and neighbors new to organizing.
McCollum’s Facebook account has more than enough evidence of her radicalization with the far left, posting about reparations, climate justice, and other leftist causes that are not too dissimilar from the globalist framework that left-wing politicians push. 
One recent Facebook post titled “No Data Centers In Maryland” was a call for mobilization in which the sponsors included “Media Justice,” “DC Sunrise Movement,” “PSL,” and “Southern Maryland Democratic Socialist of America.” 
PSL’s opposition to capitalism is explicit. Its connections to NGOs associated with China-based Neville Roy Singham intersect with efforts to block US industrial development. Under the guise of climate and other globalist narratives, such as equality, these campaigns weaken America’s ability to compete with China.
Singham exposed:
One of the main talking points of the PSL and the broader Singham network is that capitalism doesn’t work and, better, to throw a wrench into capitalism; these groups run local mobilization efforts to inhibit the free market from operating.
Funny enough, capitalism isn’t going to work when socialists and far-left actors run around sabotaging it. In this case, creating tangible local costs for the local economy, as well as contributing to America losing the AI race against China.
The problem we’ve laid out is that some NGO networks are possibly front groups for foreign governments and have been a growing problem in America. This was widely covered in the State Department’s report: Cuba: The Capital of 21st Century Communism. And months before, we laid this all out (read the note here).
And just today: Florida’s attorney general wrote on X, “Today my office issued a subpoena to the Democratic Socialists of America. We’re examining foreign contributions—including from Cuba and China—tied to their delegations and travel fund solicitations.”
While organizations like the Bitcoin Policy Institute highlighted months ago that allowing this CCP-connected network to sabotage America’s reindustrialization, which, by the way, contributes significantly to US GDP, wasn’t enough, it’s starting to produce concrete examples of how NGOs with possible foreign links can influence domestic policy. 
Maryland Delegate Brian Chisholm, founding member of the Maryland Freedom Caucus, responded:
We are locked in a technological cold war with the Chinese Communist Party, and Maryland has just become its chief casualty.
The blocking of the $5B Landover data center wasn’t a grassroots victory, it was a successful asymmetric strike engineered by hostile foreign proxies operating inside our borders. Organizers funded by Beijing’s $278M influence network successfully weaponized local anxieties to paralyze American AI infrastructure.
Our national security, grid reliability, and infrastructure integrity are now at severe risk because China and other foreign adversaries are actively trying to bring us to our knees from within.
While they expand their capabilities at breakneck speed, they are bankrolling operations to keep our state dark, divided, and digitally crippled.
If we surrender our technological advantage to orchestrated foreign interference, the economic and security consequences will shackle generations. Unfortunately, too many leaders in Maryland are too naive, intellectually lazy to recognize it, or simply cheering it on.
The McCollum concluded to NPR, “I feel like so many people are depending on this fight to be successful … Not just for myself, but even across the country, to set precedent for other people that are fighting against hyperscale data centers.” She has pitched plans to turn the now-canceled data center project into a sports complex.
Beyond Maryland, the Democratic sweep could put America’s reindustrialization push on a collision course with mounting local opposition. Whether these campaigns are grassroots efforts or receive support from NGO networks with overseas ties should be absolutely alarming.
END
Watch: “Blood On Your Hands” – Protesters Hurl Milk At Biden In Dublin
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 – 09:30 AM
Pro-Palestinian protesters hurled milk at Joe Biden on Tuesday as the former president left Trinity College Dublin, where his son Hunter had just been handed a gold medal for “Outstanding Contribution to Public Discourse.”
Security held up umbrellas over the 83-year-old and former first lady Jill Biden as they were walked to their cars across Trinity’s Front Square, while gardaí tackled protesters to the ground and the crowd chanted “Blood, blood, blood on your hands!”
Gardaí told the Jerusalem Post they arrested two men, one in his 50s and one in his 30s, over a public order incident at the college, and that the older man has been charged and is due in court.
Harper Alderson, editor of the student paper the University Times, told RTÉ that gardaí used pepper spray on two protesters, as students surrounded the cars chanting “Genocide Joe” and “Shame on you,” and later “guards off our campus.” Footage showed a garda using a baton on a protester who had been detained.
Trinity said the protest in Front Square escalated as the Bidens were leaving the ceremony in the college’s Exam Hall, and that the family left without incident.
Inside, Biden had sat in the front row while Hunter, who said he was honored to be in Dublin with his family, spoke about his addiction and a family intervention. Hunter was convicted on federal gun charges and pleaded guilty to tax charges in 2024 before his father pardoned him that December.
Asked about Gaza during the question-and-answer session, Hunter called Israel’s bombing campaign “mass murder” and the situation there “absolutely and completely wrong,” the Irish Times reported.
The Hist, the college’s debating society, founded in 1770, said Hunter’s advocacy on American politics, media, addiction and recovery made him “a commendable figure,” according to TheJournal.ie.
Amy Kennedy, president of Trinity’s students’ union, said “This is not what student-led societies are meant to do,” accusing the Hist of having “actively [invited] someone who has killed students across the globe.” Her union and the Union of Students in Ireland called the Garda response a “brutal, disproportionate use of force.”
Earlier in the day the Bidens met Taoiseach Micheál Martin at the Merrion Hotel, where they talked about Biden’s family roots in County Mayo, the Northern Ireland peace process and Ireland’s coming EU presidency, Radio Nova reported. Martin recalled Biden’s “Mayo for Sam” remark, saying Mayo’s All-Ireland win in July came “a bit later than maybe the president would have liked.”
Biden is being treated for aggressive prostate cancer that has spread to his bones, and he appeared frail and moved slowly in Dublin, TheJournal.ie reported. On Sunday he wrote that “sometimes it slows me down,” and that he won’t be able to do as many conversations as he’d hoped about his memoir, Promise Me, America, out Nov. 17.
Trinity gave Biden an honorary doctorate of laws in 2016, when he was vice president. Its students’ union has wanted it taken back since November 2023, when the union’s council voted unanimously to campaign for its withdrawal over Biden’s support for Israel, and in June 2025 Trinity’s board voted to cut all ties with Israeli universities and companies.
After Tuesday’s protest, the two unions called on Trinity to “revoke the honorary doctorate granted to Joe Biden in 2016.”
GREG HUNTER…INTERVIEWING DAVID MORGAN
No Way Out of Huge Global Debt – David Morgan
By Greg Hunter On November 10, 2026 In Market Analysis, Political AnalysisNo Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Economic analyst and financial writer David Morgan is worried about the huge unpayable global debt. Is a debt implosion in the cards? Why is it that at least three dozen countries around the world are telling people prepare for an emergency and telling them to stockpile food, water and medicines? Who knows what the “emergency” will be, but the debt is real, it’s not going away, and it continues to grow. Morgan says, “I think the main thing is governments see infrastructure and supply chains that are vulnerable. There is not a known specific disaster that is imminent. The debt problem is not imminent, but it is eventual. There is no way out of a debt based monetary system that absolutely must increase the money supply. . .. There is no way to establish fiscal responsibility that creates debt but does not create the interest at the same time to pay it off. This means you must continually increase the money supply to pay off the money that has already been loaned out. That cycle goes only until it’s not trusted anymore, and there is less and less trust every day. Will it happen by the end of this year? I doubt it. Will it happen by the end of next year? It’s more likely. Will it make it until the end of 2028? Personally, I doubt it.”
Morgan contends, gold and silver will trade in a narrow range until the end of the year. In 2027, Morgan thinks both metals will “grind higher.”
On the financial system, a big bank in Paraguay just collapsed and left millions of depositors holding the bag. Is this the tip of the iceberg in a sea of other troubled global banks that have reported debt problems recently? Morgan is worried about the so-called “bail-in.” Morgan explains, “The way the system is now is so corrupt, and they just put it in our faces. They do whatever they want regardless of the law. . .. However, if it’s you and your local bank, and there is a problem, your money could very well disappear because of the bail-in. . .. When this happened in Cypress, and all the people got equity in their bank, it was worth about 5 cents on the dollar. They lost 95% in this example.”
What keeps Morgan up at night? Morgan says, “A cyber-attack, if there was a cyber-attack on a big money center bank, a brokerage house, Treasury auction or the bond market, that’s what worries me. It’s going to be extremely difficult to find out who did it. . .. It could be blamed on ‘them,’ you know, the Chinese, North Koreans, Russia or the Middle East. This gives the powers-that-be a perfect excuse to implement a new system. . .. Your account will be reinstated, in the new system, and it will be fool proof because it will be based on a real ID. All you have to do is come in and give us a retina scan to reinstate your account. . .. and they will say, sorry for the inconvenience for this vicious attack on our financial system that is so important for our lives. That is what keeps me up at night.”
There is much more in the 43-minute interview.
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Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with David Morgan, founder of “The Morgan Report,” for 11.10.26.
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After the Interview:
