GOLD CLOSED DOWN $83.10 TO $4023.10
SILVER CLOSED DOWN $1.54 TO $51.26
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2026 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 4,105.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/09/2026 DELIVERY DATE: 11/11/2026
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
323 C HSBC 15
363 H WELLS FARGO SECURITI 14
365 C MAREX CAPITAL MARKET 14
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 17 57
686 H STONEX FINANCIAL INC 29
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 5 7
905 C ADM 2
TOTAL: 80 80
MONTH TO DATE: 4,572
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOVEMBER./2026: 80 CONTRACTS NOTICES FOR 8,000 OZ or 0.02488 TONNES
total notices so far: 4572 contracts FOR 457,200 OZ OR 14.281 TONNES
SILVER NOTICES: 22 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 110,000 OZ /
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1524 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 7.620 million oz
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $83.10 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL INSTEAD OF FRAUDULENT GLD/HUGE CHANGES AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.51 TONNES
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $1.54 AT THE SLV.//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.451 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//
NOV: INITIAL STANDING 5.820 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 101 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER JUMP TO LONDON FOR 0.505 MILLION OZ//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 8.650 MILLION OZ//
NOV. 13.655 MILLION OZ
NOV: INITIAL STANDINGl 10.566 TONNES OF GOLD FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 60 CONTRACTS FOR 6000 OZ//(0.1866 TONNES)//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 14.289 TONNES
GOLD PRICE GAIN OF $36.20
NOV INITIAL STANDING 10.566 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 60 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 6,000 OZ OR 0.1866 TONNES///NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 14.289 TONNES
NOV// 40.067 MILLION OZ
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.93 PTS OR 0.08%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 108.09 PTS OR 0.44 %
Nikkei CLOSED UP 1,620.50 PTS OR 2.76%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.36%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 6.6704
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.6681 Oil DOWN TO 84.92 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 90.27 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP 6.6704//OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.6681 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGER OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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NOV 0//SO FAR
NOV 0 SO FAR
NOV 0
THE SPECS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE ( IT ROSE BY $36.20
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposit to theDealerInventory in oz | 1 ENTRIES i) into Stonex: 2847.793 oz total deposit: 2847.793 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | DEPOSITS/CUSTOMER//gold 0 ENTRIES xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 80 CONTRACTS 8000 OZ 0.02488 TONNES OF GOLD |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 22 Contracts 2200 OZ 0.0684 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 4572 notices 457,200 OZ 14.221TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 1
i) into Stonex: 2847.793 oz
total deposit: 2847.793 oz
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DEPOSITS:CUSTOMER ACCT
ENTRIES: 0
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
comex withdrawals
0 ENTRIES
adjustments: 0
COMEX IS DRAINING GOLD
chaos inside the comex
THE FRONT MONTH OF NOV OI STANDS AT 102 CONTRACTS HAVING A GAIN OF 35 CONTRACTS.
ON MONDAY WE HAD 453,400 OZ( 14.102 TONNES) STAND FOR DELIVERY: TODAY, 459,400 OZ (14.289 TONNES) FOR A GAIN OF 6000 OZ 60 CONTRACTS (.1866 TONNES)//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 14.289 TONNES OF GOLD
.
DECEMBER, THE LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR, ITS OI FALLS BY 10,060 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 245,394
JANUARY RISES BY 248 CONTRACTS TO 1169 OI
.
We had 80 contracts filed for today representing 8000 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 17 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 80 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 57 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NON /2026. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4,572) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (102) CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 80 x 100 oz per contract) equals 459,400 OZ OR(14.289Tonnes of gold)
THUS: INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NOV. /2026. contract month,we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4,572) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV( 102) contracts minus the number of notices served upon today 80x 100 oz per contract) equals 459,400 OZ OR(14.102Tonnes of gold)
new total of gold standing in NOV becomes 14.289 TONNES//
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR NOV: 14.289 TONNES WHICH IS NOW VERY STRONG FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV/
MONDAY VOLUME: 249,833 GOOD
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,662,385.393 oz 51.707tonnes pledged gold lowers
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
total pledged gold: 1,662,385.393.tonnes oz 51.707 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 22,995,875.281oz//
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 14,241,501.342 tonnes (442.970 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD 8,754,373.909 oz.
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON in oz 12,579,116 ((REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)=
391.263 Tonnes //
total inventories in gold declining rapidly
SILVER COMEX
NOV DELIVERY MONTH
NOV 10
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 entries i) Out of CNT 603,481.090 oz ii) Out of Delaware; 20,199.850oz TOTAL WITHDRAWAL: 623,680.940oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0 ENTRY |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | ENTRIES: 0 |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 22 CONTRACT(S) ( 110,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 206 Contracts (1.036 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1524 contracts 7.620 MILLIONoz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
DEPOSITS INTO DEALER ACCOUNTS
ENTRY:0
DEPOSIT ENTRIES/CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
0 ENTRIES:
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals:
2 ENTRIES
i) Out of CNT 603,481.090 oz
ii) Out of Delaware; 20,199.850oz
TOTAL WITHDRAWAL: 623,680.940oz
adjustments : //
customer to dealer
a) Manfra: 65,134.255 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 101.630 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 334.046Million oz
registered silver dropping in numbers
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR NOV
FRONT MONTH: SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS: 228 FOR A LOSS OF 126 CONTRACTS .
ON MONDAY WE HAD 9.155 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY. TODAY 8.650 MILLION OZ FOR A LOSS OF 505,000 OZ OR AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 101 CONTRACTS.
.
DECEMBER LOST 4542 CONTRACTS DOWN TO AN OI OF 66,044
JANUARY GAINED 0 C0NTRACTS TO 1,017 OI
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:22 or 110,000oz
CONFIRMED volume MONDAY; 76,060 fair/
AND NOW NOV DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1524 X5,000 oz = 7.620 MILLION oz.
Then we take the difference between the front month of NOV. and the number of notices filed for today x 5000 to give us our standing
Thus the standings for silver for the NOV 2026 contract month: (1524 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of NOV (228 minus number of notices served upon today ( 22 x 5000 oz) equals silver standing for the NOV .contract month equating to 8.650 MILLION OZ t
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs
There are ONLY 101.630million oz of registered silver
JPMorgan as a percentage of total silver: 125.080 ///334.046million: 37.45%
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42.
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUD
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NOV10 WITH GOLD DOWN $83.10 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.51 TONNNES
NOV9 WITH GOLD UP $36.20 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 0.8600 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.37 TONNNES
NOV6 WITH GOLD DOWN $32.30 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 2.850 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.51 TONNNES
NOV4 WITH GOLD UP $133.00 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.850 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.66 TONNNES
NOV3 WITH GOLD DOWN $28.35 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040.51 TONNNES
NOV2 WITH GOLD UP $68.40 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.65TONNNES
OCT 30/ WITH GOLD DOWN $129.60 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.08TONNNES
0CT 29 2026 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.45 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 2,56 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043,34 TONNNES
OCT 28/2026 WITH GOLD DOWN $23,45 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.20 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD..INVENTORY REST AT 1041,65 TONNES
0CT 27/ WITH GOLD UP $38.30//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD.. A WITHDDRAWAL OF ,65 TONNES OF GOLD AT THE GLD..INVENTORY RESTS AT 1040,80 TONNES
OCT 26/ WITH GOLD UP $28,40 HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GKD.. A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAK IF 16.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD..INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.47 TONNES
OCT 23//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $49.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1057.62 TONNES
OCT 22//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $87.75 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A DEPOSIT OF 1.14 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD//// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.18 TONNES
OCT 21//2026/WITH GOLD UP $8.55 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD.// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 20//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.05 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 19//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 5.13 TONNES OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.04 TONNES
OCT 16//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.91 TONNES
OCT 15//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.50 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.21 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/. //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.20 TONNES
OCT 14//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $66.25 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.41 TONNES
OCT 13//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF OF 2.281TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.411 TONNES
OCT 12//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1053.13 TONNES
OCT 9//2026/WITH GOLD UP $60.00 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.562 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.411 TONNES
OCT 8//2026/WITH GOLD UP $16.85 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.703 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1059.873 TONNES
OCT 7//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.70 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.27 TONNES
OCT 6//2026/WITH GOLD UP $30.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A DEPOSIT OF 0.754 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.27 TONNES
OCT 5//2026/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 /HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.854 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.696 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 1042.51 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL GOLD INVENTORY
SILVER
NOV 10// WITH SILVER DOWN $1.54// HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.451 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//../ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 504.630 MILLION OZ
NOV 9// WITH SILVER UP $0.65// HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3540 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//../ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 505.081 MILLION OZ
NOV 6// WITH SILVER DOWN $0.35// NO CHANGES AT THE SLV: ../ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.435 MILLION OZ
NOV 4// WITH SILVER UP $2.44// SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 242,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV../ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.435 MILLION OZ
NOV 3// WITH SILVER DOWN $1.05// HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.656 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 506.677 MILLION OZ
NOV 2// WITH SILVER UP $1.55// HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.34 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.021 MILLION OZ
OCT 30// WITH SILVER DOWN $3.06// NO CHANGES AT THE SKV/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.681 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25: HUGE CHANGES AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.334 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 499.681 MILLLION OZ
OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..INVENTOR RESTS AT 498,327 MILLION OZ
OCT 27/ WITH SILVER UP $0.25 NO CHANCES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.327 MILLION OZ
OCT 26/ WITH SILVER UP 0.25 SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 451,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.327 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.94 : :NO CHANGES AT THE SLV:// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.876 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $2.72 : : SMALL CHANGES AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 632,000 OZ INTO SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.876 MILLION OZ
OCT 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28 : : STRONG CHANGES AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 858,000 OZ INTO SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.508 MILLION OZ
OCT 20 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 : :NO CHANGES A WITHDRAWAL OF 943,000 OZ INTO OUT OF SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 497.650 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP $1.19 : :MEGA HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 4.374 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.593 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER UP $1.19 : :SMALL CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 406,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 494.219 MILLION OZ
OCT 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $3.25 : :SMALL CHANGES A WITHDRAWAL OF 135,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.948 MILLION OZ
OCT 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.97 : :HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 722,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.813 MILLION OZ
OCT 12 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.51 : :HUGE CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 722,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.948 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.62 : :SMALL CHANGES A DEPOSIT OF 948,000 OZ INTO THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.226 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.74 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 532,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.278 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.36 : :SMALL CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 451,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.910 MILLION OZ
OCT 6 WITH SILVER UP $0.31 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.361 MILLION OZ
OCT 5 WITH SILVER UP $0.87 : :NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // :INVENTORY RESTS AT 493.361 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 504.630 MILLION OZ OF SILVER
GOLD COMMENTARIES:
1.PETER SCHIFF//JOHN RUBINO//RAVEN
2/ ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
CHRIS POWELL AND HIS GATA DISPATCHES
Gold swaps via BIS soar, indicating heightened price suppression efforts
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2026-11-10 11:11Section: Daily Dispatches
11:14a ET Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Surreptitious efforts for gold price suppression conducted through the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, soared in September and October.
The bank’s monthly statements of account for those months were published yesterday —
https://www.bis.org/publications/statement-account-30-september-2026.pdf
https://www.bis.org/publications/statement-account-31-october-2026.pdf
— and GATA’s analyst of the bank’s activities, Robert Lambourne, calculates from them that the bank’s gold swaps rose from 141 tonnes at the end of August to 165 tonnes at the end of September and to 218 tonnes at the end of October, an increase of 55% in just two months.
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE//KINESIS LIVE FROM THE VAULT/297
5. COMMODITY REPORT ///GOLD//
Is Trump Nixon 2.0 For Gold?
by VBL
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 8:23
Authored by GoldFix
In today’s GoldFix Market Rundown, Vince Lanci asks whether Trump is Nixon 2.0 for gold. He sets this week’s midterm sweep against 1974: a repudiated administration, weakened presidential authority and an energy crisis, the mix that set the table for gold’s 1970s run, and why the election alone is no price forecast.
Then the gold war in Asia. Hong Kong is challenging Singapore’s hold on physical bullion liquidity with vaults, tax incentives and yuan settlement, and JP Morgan and the bullion banks are playing both sides. Plus China’s first yuan sovereign bond in Canada, at America’s back door.
Full show for GoldFix members: Is Trump Nixon 2.0 For Gold?
0:00 Two stories: the Hong Kong/LBMA gold war and the yuan in Canada0:49 The midterms, as they relate to gold2:20 The 1974 Nixon comparison4:01 The potentially bullish parallel for gold4:25 What gold did in 19744:50 The energy crisis they call an affordability crisis6:05 Hong Kong/LBMA gold wars heat up6:36 Singapore: Asia's OTC gold liquidity pool7:24 Hong Kong the upstart9:03 Tokenized gold vs. the incumbent9:26 China is seeding the world with yuan10:33 The winner: JP Morgan and the bullion banks11:55 China's first yuan sovereign bond, in Canada
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.93 PTS OR 0.08%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 108.09 PTS OR 0.44 %
Nikkei CLOSED UP 1,620.50 PTS OR 2.76%
//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.36%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP AT 6.6704
/ OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 6.6681 Oil DOWN TO 84.92 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN TO 90.27 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN// WITH YUAN TRADING UP 6.6704//OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING UP TO 6.6681 ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL // OFF SHORE AND UP ON THE DOLLAR)// / AND THUS STRONGER OFF SHORE YUAN TRADING UP AGAINST US DOLLAR/ AND THUS STRONGER
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ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 6.6704
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.6681
1A.HANG SANG CLOSED UP 108.09 PTS OR 0.44%
1 B. SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.93 PTS OR 0.08%
2. Nikkei closed UP 1,620.50 PTS OR 2.76%
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE OIL DOWN TO 84.82
BRENT; 90.22
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP 8 BASIS PTS TO 101.62 EURO FALLS TO 1.1122 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +2.693 UP 3 FULL BASIS PTS/ VERY TROUBLESOME//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA CROSS NOW AT 158.13… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE ENDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AND THE REPATRIATION OF YEN DENOMINATED BONDS TRADING IN THE USA/EUROPE. JAPAN 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.854 UP 0 FULL BASIS PTS
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN //CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP (6.6704 AND OFFSHORE: UP AT 6.6681
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA. CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE.
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. GOVERMENT ASKED JAPAN PENSION FUNDS AND INSURANCE FUNDS TO BUY MORE JAPANESE BONDS AND REPATRIATE ALL FOREIGN BONDS.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN for Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yieldsLOWER on all fronts in the EU German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +3.2486 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN AT 4.285 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.8030
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 4.0730%
3j Gold at $4076.00 /Silver at: 52.33 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $100.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 21/ 100 roubles/82.71
3m oil (WTI) into the 84 dollar handle for WTI and 90 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 157.86 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 2.693% UP 3 BASIS PTS STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE NOW UNWINDING//YEN BOND TRADING OVERSEAS TO BE REPATRIATED.//JAPAN 30 YR: 3.8540 UP 0 PTS..: USA/SF this 0.8209 as the Swiss Franc . Euro vs SF: 0.9213
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.8880 UP 3 BASIS PTS…NOW BELOW 5.00%
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.265 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.614 UP 7 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 50.23 UP 5 BASIS PTS/LIRA GETTING KILLED//IDIOTS FOR SELLING GOLD AND USA DOLLAR RESERVES.
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.1182 DOWN 1 PTS
30 YR UK BOND YIELD: 5.5648 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
10 YEAR FRENCH BOND YIELD; 4.706 //DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.658 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.376 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS.
1a New York Opening report
Futures Stall As Waller Threatens 50bps Hike Hours Before CPI; Brent Breaks Below $90
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 08:23 AM
US futures are flat as a Waller hawkish curveball, hours before the October CPI report, took the air out of Wall Street’s best session in six months, while oil extended its slide on US-Iran diplomacy hopes and the Claude-maker Anthropic lined up what could be the biggest IPO ever; as a result the 2Y yield jumped 5bps to 4.61% and a December rate hike is now fully priced. As of 6:25am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1% at around 7,578 while Nasdaq futures are down 0.2% and Dow futures rise 0.4%. That follows a session in which the S&P soared 2.35% to 7,550, its best day since the April Iran ceasefire, the Nasdaq 100 jumped 3.4% and the SOX exploded 6.85% even as Nvidia slid 4.3%, the only decliner in the chip index. In premarket trading, the Mag 7 is mixed: Nvidia is up 0.6% and Alphabet gains 1% even as the Megaspeed scandal widens, confirming our article from yesterday, while memory, semis and software are lower; Sanmina and Aaon soar about 20% on strong guidance, while Groupon tumbles 20% and Rocket Lab drops 6% on a wider loss. The day’s driver is the Fed (again): Governor Waller said he backs a December hike and would consider a half-point move if core CPI prints around 0.3% or higher, which pushed odds of a 25bp hike from just over 80% to above 99%. Treasuries fell to session lows on the comments, with the 2Y up 5bps at 4.61% and the 10Y little changed around 4.86%, twisting the curve flatter, while bunds and gilts held onto early gains as energy prices slid. The dollar erased an early drop after Waller, with risk-sensitive currencies such as the krone and Aussie lagging. In commodities, Brent briefly slipped below $90 for the first time since August after Trump said further strikes on Iran would not be necessary, gold is down 1.5% to about $4,077, silver drops 1.9% and copper is softer. Bitcoin is down about 1%, trading near $74,000. US economic data slate includes October CPI (8:30am; no year-on-year figures this time due to the 2025 shutdown) and weekly ADP employment (8:15am); NFIB small business optimism already printed at 97.8, below the 98.2 estimate. Fed speaker slate includes Logan (10:50am), Schmid (1:30pm), Bowman (3:30pm) and Paulson (6:30pm). The Treasury sells $42 billion of 10-year notes at 1pm; the US bond market is closed on Wednesday for Veterans Day.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher, although Nvidia (NVDA) shares are down 1% day after the chip giant wiped out more than $190 billion in market value as its board launched an investigation into CEO Jensen Huang (Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.6%, Meta Platforms (META) +0.8%, Apple (AAPL) +0.4%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.4%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.2%, Tesla (TSLA) -0.9%)
- Aaon (AAON) gains 17% after the air conditioning equipment firm posted third quarter results.
- Groupon (GRPN) falls 16% after the discount platform revised full-year 2026 sales lower.
- Harrow (HROW) rises 16% after the eyecare-pharmaceutical company reported revenue for the third quarter that beat. The firm also reiterated its revenue forecast for the full-year which beat Wall Street’s estimates.
- Lucid (LCID) declines 3% after the electric vehicle company reported quarterly revenue that missed estimates.
- On Holding (ONON) falls 5% after the footwear company’s direct-to-consumer revenue missed Street estimates.
- Rocket Lab (RKLB) falls 7% after the space company reported a wider-than-expected third-quarter loss per share.
- Sanmina (SANM) climbs 14% after the provider of electronics manufacturing services provided a forecast for the first quarter and fiscal 2027 that beat estimates.
- Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) rises 4% as the video-game company gave an outlook that is seen as conservative ahead of the release of its highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI
- Trade Desk (TTD) falls 5% after the advertising technology company reported third-quarter results and gave a fourth quarter outlook.
In other corporate news, Anthropic is targeting a market value of about $1.4 trillion in its Nasdaq IPO, with the company and its backers seeking to raise up to $64.4 billion, and AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia and others to invest $26 billion; the company says its run-rate revenue reached about $81 billion as of Oct. 31 and it has about $900.9 billion in committed spend, which is one way to set a valuation floor. SoftBank reported its first net loss in almost two years after swallowing a $3.7 billion writedown on its US data-center projects. Nvidia’s general counsel was reported to have intervened in a US government probe of suspected AI chip smuggling by Megaspeed, while Trump said the FBI is looking into Jensen Huang’s affair and the White House is considering new export controls on Nvidia’s advanced chips, per The Information. Marvell’s $115 billion bid for Lumentum is getting a lukewarm early verdict from merger arbitrage investors. GFL Environmental turned down a buyout offer from a Blackstone, KKR and Energy Capital Partners consortium, the Globe and Mail reported. Banks led by JPMorgan could offer one of the year’s biggest discounts to offload some of the $5 billion in Qualtrics debt they have been stuck holding. Citigroup plans to hire 100 bankers after winning approval for its China securities venture. Dropbox priced $1.1 billion of convertible notes and Akamai priced $2.2 billion of converts. Bayer won US approval for its stroke drug asundexian, and Boeing is cutting thousands of workers in its commercial airplanes unit.
Bloomberg’s framing sums up the morning: nothing from last week’s AI rout has been fixed, but the gains are back. AI is bouncing, oil is falling, and a soft CPI print later today would leave very little to dislike. None of the worries have gone away (the politics of the AI buildout, Nvidia’s governance and a war that is quieter rather than over), they simply hurt less. Yesterday’s rally was the broadest of the year, with all 11 S&P sectors higher and 423 of 500 members rising, while the VIX collapsed 5.7 points to 19.9 in its sharpest drop since April 2025, as we detailed in last night’s recap. Of course, not everyone is convinced: BTIG put 73% odds on another puke.
Sentara Capital founder Will Allen said the moves in the US, the Kospi and across Asian tech point to a strong bounce, and that this is what markets needed after what looked like capitulation late last week, though time will tell if it is sustainable. JPMorgan strategists including Rajiv Batra and Mixo Das describe the latest AI selloff as an intra-cycle reset and another deleveraging event in the AI supercycle, and recommend a diversified approach in Asia with exposure to an AI recovery and to sectors that benefit from easing oil risk.
Bloomberg Intelligence market structure analyst Deniz Besiroglu notes that Anthropic could soon rank tenth in the Nasdaq 100 at a $1.3 trillion valuation, making demand from tracker funds significant relative to a potentially thin float, even with Nasdaq’s low-float weight cap. On the other side of the ledger, T. Rowe Price’s Arif Husain warns that Treasury yields risk climbing again until the US enters a slowdown, i.e., yields won’t truly peak until a recession hits.
“The Anthropic IPO is key for the future of the AI trade and the risk is asymmetric: a failure would really hit hard, while a success just means the trade can carry on,” said Olivier David at Vega Investment Solutions.
The chip trade has decoupled from Nvidia’s governance mess: the SOX just had its best day relative to Nvidia since 2019, the third-widest outperformance in a decade, and TSMC’s monthly sales jump and Infineon’s higher 2027 data center forecast may keep that going today.
The overnight susprise came from the Fed’s Waller (Voter) who said that a half-point rate hike may be needed in December if October core CPI inflation comes in around 0.3% or higher. Waller said half-point rate hike may be needed in December if October core CPI inflation comes in around 0.3% or higher. Waller would support quarter-point rate hike in December even if October CPI improves. Waller said further policy tightening will be needed. Waller said what matters is that promised hikes are delivered within a reasonable period of time. Waller said he was willing to wait on policy tightening in October. Waller said US inflation is too high. Waller said September’s inflation data were bad. Waller said he is particularly concerned about the breadth of price increases. Waller said Fed staff analyses suggest more producer price increases ahead. Waller said Fed staff analyses point to potential for energy price shock to be more persistent. Waller said labour market is solid, with supply and demand roughly in balance. Waller said employment is close to the Fed’s goal. Waller said it is unclear whether labour market is as healthy as the unemployment rate suggests. Waller said questions over labour market dynamism and productivity growth need more research. Waller suspects GDP growth is backing off in current quarter. Waller expects output to continue growing at a solid pace.
Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky, who runs the checklist in detail here, says that in hindsight we have just witnessed one of the most aggressive episodes of net and gross de-risking in Goldman’s US prime book in a decade. With a Middle East that is at least not escalating, enough barrels to balance the physical market, and Nvidia’s woes compartmentalized, the final piece is CPI: an in-line or softer print would challenge the roughly 80% odds of a December hike (as of his writing, before Waller), and then the setup looks considerably more constructive. His key observation: Brent fell almost 6% yesterday and the 10Y barely moved, a sign that rates are more reflexive to AI growth expectations than to energy. He thinks the market misread the elections, and the likely outcome is data centers built with more conditions attached rather than a nationwide moratorium. His gut says the market confused the AI narratives: undersupply is not the problem; fear of compute oversupply and efficiency gains is the medium-term worry. He is “broadly encouraged” but warns vol tends to be autocorrelated after a violent rally off the lows, with hot CPI and renewed Middle East escalation the obvious risks; he would chase aerospace, transports, select discretionary and high quality, unlevered AI, and notes SPX December upside back at 13 vol makes it easier to stay invested.
The positioning backdrop remains washed out. Goldman’s Sean Vogel notes that US Info Tech is just 14.4% of net exposure in GS Prime, in the 1st percentile on 1-year and 3-year lookbacks, and semis positioning has almost fully roundtripped in 2026. The flip side: CTAs are sellers in every scenario this week, with Goldman estimating about $31 billion of S&P futures to sell over the next week if the market stays flat, a seller that doesn’t care which way the market goes. Separately, Citi says Nasdaq 100 futures positioning saw $11.1 billion of net outflows last week.
JPM’s Market Intel desk under Andrew Tyler says today’s CPI print will help solidify December Fed expectations, calling Waller’s 50bp talk a bit surprising given the Fed’s relatively sanguine tone in recent months. Jay Barry had flagged the 2Y yield as about 25bps too low versus model value, so a near-term flattening is possible, which tends to support secular growth and the Magnificent Seven; after yesterday’s “Everything Rally” the desk thinks the tactical move in tech is toward hyperscalers as the preferred long, given ongoing financing, monetization and valuation challenges for the picks-and-shovels part of the AI trade. Dubravko Lakos-Bujas reiterates his year-end S&P target of 8,000, noting October was the largest single-month unwind for long momentum (down about 11%, a 6-sigma move), AI multiples are down about 35% since May, and QQQ’s RSI below 30 has historically led to an average 4% rally over the next five sessions.
On CPI, Goldman’s economists expect core at just 0.16% versus a 0.2% consensus (headline 0.21%), helped by shelter disinflation and declines in used cars and health insurance; JPM’s Feroli is at 0.23% core and DB sees 0.20% for both. As Privorotsky puts it, core at 0.2% would be constructive, 0.3% would challenge the rally, and Waller just told everyone where his line is. Goldman’s derivatives desk says the CPI straddle implies an 80bp move. Our full preview is here.
“I’m not surprised to see interest rate expectations being priced up with what we see as sticky inflation in the US,” said Karen Georges, equity fund manager at Ecofi in Paris. “That brings the focus to today’s CPI.”
Oil, meanwhile, keeps unwinding its war premium. Privorotsky calls it “containment, not de-escalation”: Gulf governments prefer continued economic pressure on Iran over more military action, and if flows normalize without more infrastructure damage the risk premium has further to unwind, though he sees the risk as two-sided after such a fast repricing and is staying balanced. Saudi Arabia’s main shipping firm is sending tankers through Hormuz in coordination with the US military, and refined product loadings in the Persian Gulf recovered to about 3 million b/d in October from about 1 million at the May trough. The tape is not all clean: Iran’s IRGC said two tankers caught fire in Hormuz, per Tasnim.
In Europe, French and Italian bonds extend their outperformance as energy slides, with the OAT-Bund spread narrowing 3.4bps to 147bps on Monday, a 3-week low, even as ECB’s Lane told Bloomberg a December hike would be prudent if the data don’t shift. See also our take on France’s debt reckoning.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.8% at 661.56 and on course for a record close, as lower oil prices remain the region’s main tailwind; the DAX gains 1.2%, the Euro Stoxx 50 adds 1.1% and the FTSE MIB outperforms while the FTSE 100 lags, up 0.3%. Banks, construction and industrials lead while energy, health care and materials lag; JPM’s desk notes Beta and Quality leading with Momentum and Growth lagging. Infineon jumps about 6% on an upbeat 2027 outlook amid AI demand, Vodafone slips despite lifting its outlook, BT dips after pausing its tie-up with Starlink and Ferrexpo slumps after halting production in Ukraine.
Asian stocks are on track for their best two-day gain since August, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising 1.9% after climbing as much as 2.3%, as the tech rebound and lower oil boosted sentiment. Korea’s Kospi led with a 4.3% surge, back above 5,200 and triggering a sidecar early on, as foreigners turned net buyers for the first time after a 7-day selling streak (a move Goldman’s Asia desk calls more technical than fundamental). Japan’s Nikkei gained 2.9% to reclaim 60,000 and the Topix rose 2.2%, the Taiex added 2.3% and the ASX 200 rose 1.1%, while Chinese stocks lagged with the CSI 300 up 0.2% and the Hang Seng up 0.3% as traders digested mixed trade data that showed China’s annual surplus topping $1 trillion. Goldman notes $22 billion left EM Asia ex-China last week, the second-largest weekly outflow on record, led by $16 billion from Taiwan, while hedge fund net leverage in the region sits at the 4th percentile.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed after erasing an earlier drop on Waller’s comments; the DXY trades in a 101.55-101.74 range. EUR/USD is flat near 1.1224 and GBP/USD slips to around 1.3447 after BOE Deputy Governor Lombardelli said a December hike is plausible but depends on the Iran conflict. Risk-sensitive currencies lead G-10 losses, with the krone down 0.7% after cooler-than-expected Norwegian inflation and the Aussie down 0.3%. USD/JPY holds around 158 even after a sharp miss in Japanese household spending. Goldman’s Jake Fox calls Waller’s 50bp remarks a bit of “hedging”, worth 3-4bps of December FOMC pricing, which is now essentially a full 25bp hike.
In rates, Treasuries are cheaper at the front end after Waller backed a December hike just hours before CPI, with the 2Y yield up 5bps at 4.61% while the 10Y is little changed around 4.86%, twisting the curve flatter; Treasuries were pushed to session lows on the remarks as December hike odds jumped above 99%. Goldman’s London desk notes the specifics were less hawkish than the headline (Waller still leans toward 25bps if inflation improves, and said he is not looking to “slam” the economy with 150bp or 200bp of hikes), but the market took the headline. Bunds and gilts held onto early gains as crude slid, before fading from their best levels on the Waller readacross and a pare in Dutch gas losses; the UK’s 2056 gilt sale drew an average yield of 5.54%. The Treasury sells $42 billion of 10-year notes at 1pm, after Monday’s 3-year auction tailed by 0.4bp and saw the biggest tail since May, with $25 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday after Wednesday’s holiday. Monday’s NY Fed survey showing layoff fears at the highest since the Covid crash did little to slow the rate-hike chatter.
In commodities, WTI is down 1.5% at $85.62 and Brent is down 1.7% at $91.02 as of 6am, with Brent trading in a $89.21-92.84 range after briefly breaking below $90 for the first time since August, following Monday’s almost 6% slump; Trump said the US remains “locked and loaded” but doesn’t expect to need it, and Qatar says mediation between the US and Iran has gained momentum. US gasoline dropped below $4 a gallon for the first time since July. Dutch TTF gas is lower in a EUR 78.92-82.00/MWh range. Spot gold is down 1.5% at about $4,077 and silver falls 1.9% to $52.40 as the dollar firms; LME copper is softer near $13,840. Goldman’s James McGeoch calls gold an oil trade dominated by CTAs, with ETF demand pulling back.
US economic data slate includes October CPI (8:30am) and weekly ADP employment (8:15am). Fed speaker slate includes Logan (10:50am), Schmid (1:30pm), Bowman (3:30pm) and Paulson (6:30pm). The EIA publishes its monthly STEO around noon and the API reports inventories at 4:30pm. On the corporate calendar, TransDigm, Sea and Sally Beauty report before the open and CoreWeave reports after the close; conferences include Baird global industrials, BMO financials, Wolfe health care, UBS global health care and Citi fintech, and Anthropic is planning a live-streamed IPO event with CEO Dario Amodei and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon.
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- Trump said he plans to hold off on new military strikes against Iran for the time being after appeals from countries in the region, including Qatar’s prime minister, while keeping a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz for now: Reuters
- Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said mediation efforts are ongoing, positive responses from both sides, and mediation has gained significant momentum in recent days: RTRS
- An Iranian diplomatic source denies reports of an agreement with the US on uranium enrichment at 3.67% or other nuclear issues, insisting Tehran’s two-day proposal remains unchanged and no detailed nuclear discussions have taken place, according to Avash: Newsquawk
- The US evacuated American aircraft from a Royal Air Force base in England on Monday in the wake of a threat from Iran, according to people familiar with the matter: Reuters
- A Qatari-Pakistani proposal increases the likelihood of a preliminary agreement to reduce Iranian uranium enrichment; US proposal includes releasing USD 6-9bln in Iranian assets if an agreement is reached. Qatari-Pakistani proposal would immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US naval blockade: Al Hadath
- Saudi Arabia’s main shipping firm is sending some tankers through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the US military: BBG
- France summons Iran’s envoy over a supermarket fridge hack and warns of a response: Reuters
- US-mediated three-way talks between Russia and Ukraine have begun in Abu Dhabi, the head of Kyiv’s delegation said: AP
- UK and Russia need a new backchannel to avoid ‘miscalculation’, says UK Defence Secretary Streeting: FT
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed ought to raise short-term rates in December even if inflation cooled last month, and should consider an upsized half-point hike if the inflation picture worsens: Reuters
- Trump said the FBI is reviewing Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s affair with a suspected Chinese spy, while describing Huang as a “very honorable man”; the crisis has brought the company’s succession risks into focus: BBG
- Jensen Huang’s affair with an alleged Chinese spy further complicates Nvidia’s China problem: CNBC
- Rep. Thomas Massie introduced articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, setting off a two-day clock for an expected House vote on charges including waging war against Iran without congressional approval: Reuters
- Canada will seek to ease trade frictions with the US after tariff-weary voters rebuked Trump in the midterm elections, Foreign Minister Anand said: BBG
- Anthropic is targeting a valuation of around $1.3 trillion in its IPO later this month, below Wall Street’s initial expectations: WSJ
- GS says SpaceX has had a much smaller impact on equity indices than many investors expected: excluding it, the Nasdaq-100 P/E would be less than half a turn lower, and its inclusion has not had a major effect on the index’s return, volatility or concentration: Goldman
- Japan’s household spending unexpectedly fell the most since 2020 in September, highlighting persistent weakness in consumption: BBG
- China’s October trade was mixed, with exports +35.2% (vs. +36.3% Street) and imports +41.6% (vs. +33.9%), sending the year-to-date trade surplus above US$1 trillion amid rising Western scrutiny: SCMP
- The BoJ’s brief record of the latest policy meeting indicated many board members see a near-term interest-rate hike as necessary, signaling a good chance of a December move: BBG
- ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said the ECB should raise borrowing costs again at its next meeting if the data don’t shift, with inflation probably “a little bit” above 4% by year-end: BBG
- GS expects a 0.16% increase in October core CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus) and a 0.21% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.3%), consistent with a larger 0.23% rise in core PCE: GIR
- Investors have been buying stocks they believe can shield them from a downturn as fears the AI bull market may be over prompt a violent rotation in global equities: FT
- The FDA is requiring new safety warnings on all GLP-1 drugs after finding evidence of a potentially increased risk of a rare eye condition: CNBC
- Wall Street is poised to deliver another banner year for bonuses on record profits at big banks: BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded higher as markets continued to claw back the losses from the recent tech slump, while lower oil prices and US-Iran optimism also provided some encouragement. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in real estate, industrials and the mining sector amid tailwinds from a lower yield environment in Australia. Nikkei 225 rallied back above the 60,000 level with SoftBank spearheading the advances amid the tech rebound and with stocks unfazed by the weaker-than-expected Household Spending data from Japan. KOSPI benefitted from the tech rally with a sidecar triggered in early trade but is off today’s best levels. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive but lagged behind regional peers as participants digested the somewhat mixed trade data in which dollar-denominated Exports and Imports topped forecasts, although Trade Balance was at a narrower-than-forecast surplus and yuan-denominated Exports slowed.
Top Asian News
- Japanese Finance Minister said BoJ is estimated to make JPY 1tln from faster ETF sales and it is undecided how much BoJ will remit to the government. No impact on BoJ operations from how much proceeds the government expects from the BoJ’s ETF sales. Some smaller banks are worried about money shifting to retail JGBs. Nothing decided on preferential tax treatment for retail JGBs and will leave the debate to the LDP.
- New Zealand PM Luxon meets with Opportunity Party leader Wong ahead of a pact.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.7%) are firmer across the board, benefiting from the pressure across the energy space with negotiations ongoing on both the Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran fronts. As it stands, major indices are stronger by 0.2%-1.3%; the FTSE MIB outperforms. European sectors hold a strong positive bias. Banks sit at the top of the pile, joined closely by Construction and then Industrials. Unsurprisingly, Energy lags given the pressure seen in underlying oil prices. As for key movers this morning: Infineon (+5.8%) gained following decent headline metrics, and FY27 outlook impressed, amidst growing AI demand. Sticking with earnings, Vodafone (-1.8%) slips despite lifting outlook, but adj. earnings did fall. Elsewhere, BT (-0.7%) opted to pause its tie-up with SpaceX’s Starlink, amidst the recent Ukraine controversy. Finally, Ferrexpo (-5.5%) shares tumbled after temporarily halting production in Ukraine. US equity futures are mixed and trade on either side of the unchanged mark. Earlier, contracts moved a touch off best levels following hawkish remarks from the Fed’s Waller. He mentioned that further tightening is needed, and shared his openness to a larger 50bps rate hike if Oct core CPI (M/M) printed at 0.3% or above. The report is set to be published today, where consensus for the core is at 0.2%.
FX
- DXY was initially softer, but now trades flat on the session within a 101.55-101.74 range. Initial pressure stemmed from falling energy prices as the geopolitical backdrop improves, but the index then jumped after hawkish comments from the Fed’s Waller. He mentioned that further policy tightening will be needed, adding that a 50bps rate hike may be needed in December if October core CPI inflation comes in around 0.3% or higher. Comments come ahead of the October CPI report this afternoon, whereby the Core M/M metric is expected to print at 0.2%. Therefore, a hotter-than-expected report will likely cement a December rate hike, with money markets potentially even pricing in a chance of a larger 50bps move.
- EUR/USD is flat and holds within a 1.1216-1.1239 range. The single currency remains at the whim of the USD, with little reaction seen to French Q3 unemployment falling to 8.2% (exp. 8.4%). On the central bank front, ECB’s Moulin said he expects policy continuity if either Knot or de Cos takes over as ECB President.
- GBP/USD is a touch lower and holds within a 1.3427-1.3458 range. BoE Deputy Governor Lombardelli said, according to the Guardian, a further 25bps hike in December is plausible, with every meeting live, but that the decision will depend on developments in the Iran conflict; little reaction was seen. UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor came in at 1.1% Y/Y (exp. 1.2%).
- USD/JPY trades within a 157.85-158.16 range. Japanese Household Spending fell 6.7% Y/Y (exp. -3.1%), while the current account surplus narrowed more than expected. The BoJ Summary of Opinions showed a member saying the BoJ should raise rates when possible without becoming too cautious.
- Antipodeans are mixed: NZD/USD is firmer at the top end of a 0.5622-0.5649 range, with RBNZ chief economist Conway saying the MPC agrees further rate hikes are needed. AUD/USD is softer within a 0.6909-0.6930 range, beneath its 21DMA at 0.6983, after varied Australian consumer and business surveys and mixed Chinese trade data.
- NOK is softer, with EUR/NOK gradually climbing to the top of a 10.508-10.570 range after Norwegian CPI came in cooler than expected at 3.6% Y/Y (exp. 3.7%), with core CPI at 2.7% (exp. 2.8%).
Central Banks
- Fed’s Waller (Voter) said that further policy tightening will be needed; Waller said half-point rate hike may be needed in December if October core CPI inflation comes in around 0.3% or higher. OUTLOOK FOR INTEREST RATES: Waller said half-point rate hike may be needed in December if October core CPI inflation comes in around 0.3% or higher. Waller would support quarter-point rate hike in December even if October CPI improves. Waller said further policy tightening will be needed. FORWARD GUIDANCE: Waller said what matters is that promised hikes are delivered within a reasonable period of time. Waller said he was willing to wait on policy tightening in October. INFLATION: Waller said US inflation is too high. Waller said September’s inflation data were bad. Waller said he is particularly concerned about the breadth of price increases. Waller said Fed staff analyses suggest more producer price increases ahead. Waller said Fed staff analyses point to potential for energy price shock to be more persistent. LABOUR MARKET: Waller said labour market is solid, with supply and demand roughly in balance. Waller said employment is close to the Fed’s goal. Waller said it is unclear whether labour market is as healthy as the unemployment rate suggests. Waller said questions over labour market dynamism and productivity growth need more research. GDP GROWTH: Waller suspects GDP growth is backing off in current quarter. Waller expects output to continue growing at a solid pace.
- Fed’s Waller (Q&A) said he expects further tightening “sooner rather than later” to return inflation towards 2% over the medium term. A 0.3% MM rise in US October CPI would indicate inflation is moving away from target and would require more aggressive policy action. Does not think we will see broad-based productivity gains from AI for a while. In the context of recent equity moves, said that is generally not too important for his monetary assessment. Revised up his neutral view, and in that context, policy is not as tight as he thought it might be some 18 months ago. At a minimum they need to take back the three insurance cuts. But, he is not “super hawkish”, does not want to “slam” the US economy. Not looking to tighten by 150bps or 200bps. The balance sheet is not a tool that will be used for tightening. Does not think his peers on the Fed believe rates are in the correct place. Recent pullback in market pricing for the Fed has moved it to be more in-line with the Fed’s view.
- BoJ Summary of Opinions noted that a member said it is appropriate to continue raising rates as underlying inflation nears the price target, while a member said maintaining policy is suitable to assess risks around the economy and prices a little more.
- ECB’s Lane said it would be prudent to hike rates in December if incoming data do not materially change the outlook, speaking to Bloomberg.
- ECB’s Moulin expects policy continuity if either Knot or de Cos takes over as ECB President.
- BoE’s Breeden said firms are now very good at adapting to cost shocks.
- BoE Deputy Governor Lombardelli said a further 25bps rate hike in December is plausible, with every meeting live, but a decision will depend on developments in the Iran conflict, the Guardian reported.
- RBNZ chief economist Conway said inflation is too high in New Zealand and the MPC agrees further rate hikes are needed. Pockets of weakness remain in the domestic economy. There is clear excess capacity in the labour market. Risk is that cost shocks become broader inflation pressures.
- PBoC injected CNY 190bln via overnight reverse repos with the rate at 1.25%.
- PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7167 vs exp. 6.6655 (prev. 6.7188).
- Riksbank Minutes: overall, members are skewed towards further tightening, but the exact timing is less clear.
Fixed Income
- A contained start has given way to a Waller-induced bearish skew in USTs, while EGBs and Gilts hold onto initial gains.
- USTs spent the morning under very modest pressure, of a few ticks at most, in contrast to peers at the time which were modestly firmer. A discrepancy that was potentially a factor of the constructive risk tone lifting US yields early doors, while Europe reacts more to the energy moves as Dutch TTF began lower (though since off lows) and crude continues to falter.
- Then, USTs were hit and pushed below the 107-00 handle to a 106-27+ base on hawkish remarks from Fed’s Waller. Waller, in short, said a December move is warranted and if October’s Core CPI at 13:30GMT today prints around 0.3% (exp. 0.2%, prev. 0.3%) or above, then a 50bps hike could be merited.
- Waller’s remarks saw pricing for a 25bps December hike increase from just over 80%, to >99%. Further out, December 2027 also shifted hawkishly, though the base case remains a 4.25-4.50% rate by then; currently, the target rate is 3.75-4.00%. After CPI, we get commentary from Logan, Schmid, Bowman and Paulson.
- Back to Europe, Bunds hit a 123.25 peak in the mid-morning, as global crude benchmarks hit lows on continued geopolitical optimism and despite a handful of comments/sources from the Iranian side that are less constructive on the situation. Since, EGBs have faded from best on the readacross from Waller, but also as Dutch TTF pared its losses, after the morning’s regional weather forecasts turned colder.
- Finally, Gilts opened on the front foot given the energy moves. Hit an 87.29 peak, firmer by about 40 ticks at best. Aside from energy, focus on BoE commentary after Lombardelli made clear that every meeting is live, but that it is too soon to make a call on December, and referenced market pricing as being about 50/50. Since, Breeden spoke on cost-push inflation. Ahead, we have Pill scheduled; it will be interesting if he does not lean towards a December move, given his hawkish bias.
- UK sold GBP 1bln 5.375% 2056 Gilt: avg. yield 5.54% (prev. 5.517%), b/c 3.75x (prev. 3.84x), tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.3bps).
- Japan sold JPY 450.7bln 30-yr JGBs; b/c 3.36x (prev. 3.88x), average yield 3.847% (prev. 4.109%). Lowest accepted price 104.55 vs prev. 101.05. Average accepted price 104.90 vs prev. 101.21. Tail in price 0.35 vs prev. 0.16.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks are lower and extending declines after Monday’s slump, as the mood between the US and Iran turned more constructive (see below for details). WTI Dec’26 trades within a USD 83.88-86.93/bbl range (vs Monday’s USD 85.02-91.42/bbl range), while Brent Jan’27 moves within USD 89.21-92.84/bbl (vs Monday’s USD 90.56-98.43/bbl range). Ahead, the EIA STEO is due later today.
- Dutch TTF is lower within a EUR 78.92-82.00/MWh range, having dipped beneath EUR 80/MWh and Monday’s 79.00 low before paring, likely tracking the weakness in crude amid hopes of the Strait of Hormuz reopening.
- Spot gold is softer within a USD 4,081.22-4,146.70/oz range (vs Monday’s USD 4,054.49-4,148.60/oz range), taking a breather after rallying yesterday alongside lower oil prices and as the USD benefits from hawkish comments from the Fed’s Waller.
- 3M LME copper is softer, at the bottom of a USD 13,837.00-13,991.73/t range (vs Monday’s USD 13,776.63-13,938.00/t range), having been underpinned by the constructive mood earlier, with the upside capped as participants digested the latest Chinese trade data, in which imports rose 41.6% Y/Y (exp. 32.0%) and exports 35.2% (exp. 33.5%), although the trade surplus narrowed more than expected.
- In geopolitics, meetings between US President Trump, VP Vance and the Qatari PM were described as positive, while Trump said the US is “locked and loaded” but that military action seems unlikely at this point. A rerun of yesterday’s reports this morning reiterated that a Qatari-Pakistani proposal increases the likelihood of a preliminary agreement to reduce Iranian uranium enrichment, with the proposal that would immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US naval blockade, and the US proposal including the release of USD 6-9bln in Iranian assets if an agreement is reached. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Araghchi said there are no plans for a meeting between Supreme National Security Council chief Rezaei and US VP Vance. Ahead, geopolitics will likely dominate the tape (barring US CPI), with traders eyeing US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine mediation efforts, with the trilateral Russia-Ukraine-US meeting taking place in Abu Dhabi today and tomorrow.
- UAE’s ADNOC set December Murban Crude OSP at USD +4/bbl vs Dubai quotes, reports suggest.
- UAE is reportedly selling 1.7mln barrels of Arab light from a salvaged tanker, loading between November 10th and 20th.
- German Chancellor Merz is in favour of maintaining the EU’s approach to emissions trading, Handelsblatt reported; the Chancellor is against weakening the regulation any further.
Trade/Tariffs
- USTR announces the US extends the trade probe regarding Vietnam’s IP protection for three months to the end of February.
- White House considering new export controls on NVIDIA (NVDA) advanced chips, according to The Information.
- China’s Finance Ministry said Vice Premier He Lifeng and Canada’s Minister of Finance and Trade Minister co-chaired the second Canada-China economic and financial strategic dialogue. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to multilateralism and support for a transparent and predictable trade and investment environment. Both sides welcomed the implementation of bilateral local currency swap arrangements and recent positive progress in China-Canada trade consultations. The Finance Ministry, financial regulators and central banks of the two countries separately signed a memorandum of understanding on fiscal cooperation.
- Canadian Finance Minister said Canada modifies tariff relief measures, extending the horizontal remission for US tariffs by one year to June 30th 2028. Canada tariff relief will include non-steel goods used in mining, quarrying, or the extraction of oil and gas. Canada is granting targeted tariff relief for certain imported goods that are in short supply in the Canadian market.
Geopolitics: Iran
- Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said mediation efforts are ongoing, positive responses from both sides, and mediation has gained significant momentum in recent days.
- An Iranian diplomatic source denies reports of an agreement with the US on uranium enrichment at 3.67% or other nuclear issues, insisting Tehran’s two-day proposal remains unchanged and no detailed nuclear discussions have taken place, according to Avash.
- A Qatari-Pakistani proposal increases the likelihood of a preliminary agreement to reduce Iranian uranium enrichment, according to Al Hadath citing sources; US proposal includes releasing USD 6-9bln in Iranian assets if an agreement is reached. Qatari-Pakistani proposal would immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US naval blockade.
- US President Trump posted that he had an excellent conversation with Qatar’s PM and discussed Iran, while he noted that several Gulf states would prefer the status quo, in other words, a continuation of the naval blockade and the new Operation Iron Gate.
- US President Trump said US is locked and loaded with the best equipment ever made, but adds that they don’t think there’s going to be a reason to use it. Iran militarily is effectively over. Iran is talking to us very politely.
- Qatar’s PM Al Thani said he discussed the region with US President Trump and discussed ways to progress US-Iran talks.
- Qatar’s PM has made an unscheduled stop at the G7 to brief Europeans and Saudi Arabia on the Middle East situation following talks with US President Trump.
- Iranian VP Aref said “Whether peace is achieved or not, the path of confrontation with the enemy will continue”.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said there are no plans for a meeting between Supreme National Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei and US Vice President Vance, Al Mayadeen reported. Solution to the conflict is in diplomacy and the implementation of the conditions Iran has outlined.
- Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei said war on Iran has inflicted grave damage on the US government and called on the US to stop publishing false news about illusory negotiations. The time has come to surrender to the seven conditions that Iran has set out again and again.
- Adviser to the Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force said one of the areas of progress for Iranian specialists is designing missiles that use waves emitted from radar systems, enabling the identification and targeting of the enemy’s radar equipment. The ‘Hormuz’ missile was designed with the aim of countering radar systems and is capable of homing in on sources of radar wave emissions.
- Sound of an explosion in the Strait of Hormuz, Sabereen reported.
- ” Explosion of two violating oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz”, IRIB reports.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- A Russian delegation has departed for Abu Dhabi for talks with the US and Ukraine, TASS reported citing a source. Recent reporting suggests talks have paused for a break.
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces hit a cargo vessel and a tanker in the Black Sea, according to IFX.
- UK Defence Secretary Streeting said UK and Russia need a new back channel of communication to avoid the risk of a miscalculation, according to FT.
- US Envoy Kushner said that “the meeting with the Ukrainians, Russians and European partners was very positive”.
- Ukrainian official Umerov said the Ukrainian delegation has begun meetings in the UAE; the first meeting in Abu Dhabi is with European, NATO and EU representatives, alongside US envoys Witkoff and Kushner.
Geopolitics: Other
- Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed two missiles launched by Yemen’s Houthis towards Riyadh.
- Saudi airstrikes continue against residential areas in Yemen’s Saada, according to reports cited by SNN.
- Israel conducts an airstrike on Al-Qantara in southern Lebanon, according to Mehr News.
- US President Trump said on call with C-Span that Venezuela gave the US 1mln barrels last week and that we will find out whether an Iran deal will happen.
- Iraq will temporarily close its Mandali border crossing with Iran from Friday to complete technical requirements. Will reopen the Sheeb border crossing with Iran.
- Gulf Cooperation Council states agree to establish a military command headquarters in Kuwait.
- North Korean leader Kim’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, criticised South Korea’s announcement regarding the landmine blast and criticised the UN Secretary General for echoing Seoul’s position and breaching neutrality, according to KCNA.
- Yemeni news sources report Saudi airstrikes on a gas station and an oil company building in Sana’a and a missile strike on the eastern city of Saada, according to IRNA.
- Taiwan said China is conducting ‘area denial’ drills in the Western Pacific.
Crypto
- Bitcoin is a touch firmer this morning and trades around the USD 74.3k, whilst Ethereum is flat and holds around USD 2.1k.
US Event Calendar
- 6:00am: Oct NFIB Small Business Optimism, 97.8, est. 98.2, prior 97.9
- 8:15am: Oct. 24 ADP Weekly Employment Change, prior 16.750k
- 8:30am: Oct CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.6%
- 8:30am: Oct Core CPI MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
- 8:30am: Oct Core CPI Index SA, est. 339.684, prior 338.896
- 8:30am: Oct CPI Index NSA, est. 337.209, prior 336.940
- 8:30am: BLS won’t publish Oct. 2026 YoY CPI or real earnings data
- 1:00pm: US to sell $42 billion of 10-year notes
Central Bank Speakers
- 10:50am: Fed’s Logan Gives Opening Remarks
- 1:30pm: Fed’s Schmid Participates in Fireside Chat
- 3:30pm: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Economic Outlook
- 6:30pm: Fed’s Paulson Speaks on Economic Outlook
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets have put in a very strong performance over the last 24 hours, with all the main risk factors fading into the background. First, the fears around AI-related growth eased significantly, which pushed the Philly semiconductor index (+6.85%) to its best daily performance since July. So in turn, that meant the S&P 500 (+2.35%) built on Friday’s recovery and posted its strongest day since the Iran ceasefire announcement in April. The index is now “only” down -0.25% in the four business days since the midterms. Second, there was growing optimism on the geopolitical front, as hopes for diplomatic progress between the US and Iran pushed Brent crude (-5.85%) to a 2-month low of $92.57/bbl. And third, the risk-on tone meant the fiscal concerns in Europe eased, with the Franco-German 10yr spread (-3.4bps) tightening to a 3-week low of 147bps. So all round, investors became a lot more optimistic on the near-term outlook, and the VIX index (-5.72pts) posted its sharpest daily decline since April 2025 when equities rebounded from their post-Liberation Day sell-off.
This strength was clearest in the most AI-exposed assets, which continued to recover from last Thursday’s slump. Indeed, the Philly semiconductor index is up +11.35% in the last two sessions, having now unwound almost two thirds of its -15% decline following the midterm election results. There wasn’t an obvious catalyst for the bounceback, but as our equity strategists noted, equity positioning had become sizeably underweight after last week’s moves, and in tech, positioning was now beneath its lows after Liberation Day. So that meant the conditions were in place for a sharp recovery. Indeed, the only company which moved lower in the Philly semiconductor index yesterday was Nvidia (-4.27%), which hit a 7-month low after the company’s announcement of an independent investigation involving CEO Jensen Huang. Remember we have earnings from CoreWeave as well after tonight’s US close, so that’ll be one to watch.
Whilst tech stocks were bouncing back sharply yesterday, the other positive catalyst was the latest decline in oil prices, which followed several headlines that raised hopes about a diplomatic resolution. For instance, a Qatari official told Bloomberg that both the US and Iran were talking with mediators on the details of a deal. Moreover, there was also a reaction to Trump’s weekend comments to CNN that it was “highly unlikely” he’d order extensive strikes on Iran, even as he said it would depend on them signing a “very strong agreement”. Late in the US session yesterday, Trump also posted that there was “positive momentum toward an end to this Conflict” and suggested that Gulf allies “prefer the status quo”, even as the US was “locked and loaded” if developments in the region change.
So that led to optimism that renewed escalation would be avoided, with Brent crude (-5.85%) ending the session at a 2-month low of $92.57/bbl and down another -1.21% this morning to $91.45/bbl.
That combination of tech positivity and oil declines effectively led to the reverse of the stagflation playbook, with investors feeling more positive on growth, and less worried about inflation. In terms of the reaction in US Treasury yields, it was the risk-on reaction that dominated, with 2yr yields rising +5.0bps to 4.56% thanks to a +11.2bps rise in the real yield, even as the inflation breakeven (-6.2bps) fell back. Indeed, the optimism on near-term inflation meant that 1yr US inflation swap (-13.6bps) closed beneath 2% again for the first time since mid-August. However, when it came to the Fed, the easing financial stress won out, and investors grew more confident that they would deliver a rate hike in December, with market pricing up from 78% on Friday to an 84% chance by the close. Further out the curve, the 10yr (+2.6bps to 4.88%) and 30yr (+1.4bps) yields saw more modest increases.
With all that happening, today will also see the latest US CPI print for October, which is the last CPI print ahead of the Fed’s decision next month. Last month’s CPI print for September was a very strong one, with the fastest monthly headline CPI in six months, at +0.65%. However, this time, our US economists expect inflation to have come down from its September pace, with both headline and core at +0.20% on the month. However, this report will be slightly unusual because we won’t get a year-on-year number for inflation. That’s because of last year’s government shutdown, which meant the October 2025 inflation level wasn’t produced, so there isn’t a number from last year to compare it to. Otherwise, remember that markets will also be focused on the read-through to the PCE inflation print (the Fed’s target measure), but we’ll have to wait until the PPI release on Friday for some more of the components.
Ahead of that, Asian stocks are rallying hard again this morning with US futures consolidating. Contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.21%) and Nasdaq 100 (+0.08%) are relatively quiet. The big move has come from the KOSPI (+4.73%), which is bouncing back after three days of consecutive declines. The Nikkei 225 (+2.82%), TOPIX (+2.06%) S&P/ASX 200 (+1.10%) and Taiwan TAIEX (+2.31%) are also advancing. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+0.37%), CSI 300 (+0.36%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.33%) continue to eke out gains. This morning, the 10yr US Treasury yield is back down -1.0bps to 4.87%. Euro Stoxx futures are +0.84%, having closed before the last leg of the US gains last night.
The rise in European futures carries on from an optimistic session on the continent yesterday, as the tech rebound and lower oil prices boosted risk assets. The STOXX 600 (+1.26%), the FTSE 100 (+1.02%), and the DAX (+1.73%) all rose strongly. Moreover, France’s CAC 40 (+1.16%) hit a two-month high, whilst Italy’s FTSE MIB (+2.69%) posted its best performance since April. Then for sovereign bonds, there was also a clear risk-on move, with 10yr bund yields (+0.9bps) edging up to 3.26%, but with 10yr OATs (-2.3bps) and BTPs (-2.7bps) falling back.
Finally, we didn’t get much data yesterday, although there were the latest inflation expectations numbers from the NY Fed. They showed 1yr inflation expectations moving up a basis point to 3.91%, the highest since May 2023. And the 3yr measure also inched up 4 basis points to 3.29%, which is the highest print since June. So that leant against the otherwise disinflationary newsflow yesterday. Meanwhile, there were also signs of pessimism on the labour market, as expectations of higher unemployment mounted. Indeed, the mean probability that the US unemployment rate would be higher in a year rose to 45.3%, the highest since April 2020 during the pandemic.
Looking at the day ahead now, the main data highlight will be the US CPI print for October, and we’ll also get the NFIB’s small business optimism index for October. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Waller, Logan, Schmid, Bowman and Paulson, along with the ECB’s Sleijpen, Cipollone, Lane and Escriva, and the BoE’s Breeden, Lombardelli and Pill. Finally, today’s earnings releases include CoreWeave.
1 b European opening report
Crude benchmarks slip as trilateral talks between US-Russia-Ukraine take place & on US-Iran diplomacy hopes; Fed’s Waller strikes a hawkish tone ahead of CPI – Newsquawk US Market Open
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 06:12 AM
- US President Trump said he had an excellent conversation with Qatar’s PM and that US military action against Iran seems unlikely at this point; reports suggest a Qatari-Pakistani proposal has revived US-Iran negotiations.
- US-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine, on ending the war have begun in Abu Dhabi; Brent -2.5%.
- European bourses are in the green; US equity futures trade tentatively ahead of US CPI.
- DXY was initially subdued, but was then strengthened by hawkish comments from Fed’s Waller; he mentioned that further policy tightening will be needed, and signalled openness to a larger 50bps move.
- Comments which also spurred a hawkish reaction in USTs, which fell to session troughs; XAU/USD also moved lower.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US CPI (Oct), EIA STEO, BoC Minutes, BCB Minutes. Speakers include Fed’s Logan, Schmid, Bowman & Paulson, BoE’s Pill, ECB’s Cipollone. Supply from the US. Earnings from CoreWeave.
SNAPSHOT
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LOOKING AHEAD
- Highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US CPI (Oct), EIA STEO, BoC Minutes, BCB Minutes. Speakers include Fed’s Logan, Schmid, Bowman & Paulson, BoE’s Pill, ECB’s Cipollone. Supply from the US. Earnings from CoreWeave.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.7%) are firmer across the board, benefiting from the pressure across the energy space with negotiations ongoing on both the Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran fronts. As it stands, major indices are stronger by 0.2%-1.3%; the FTSE MIB outperforms.
- European sectors hold a strong positive bias. Banks sit at the top of the pile, joined closely by Construction and then Industrials. Unsurprisingly, Energy lags given the pressure seen in underlying oil prices.
- As for key movers this morning: Infineon (+5.8%) gained following decent headline metrics, and FY27 outlook impressed, amidst growing AI demand. Sticking with earnings, Vodafone (-1.8%) slips despite lifting outlook, but adj. earnings did fall. Elsewhere, BT (-0.7%) opted to pause its tie-up with SpaceX’s Starlink, amidst the recent Ukraine controversy. Finally, Ferrexpo (-5.5%) shares tumbled after temporarily halting production in Ukraine.
- US equity futures are mixed and trade on either side of the unchanged mark. Earlier, contracts moved a touch off best levels following hawkish remarks from the Fed’s Waller. He mentioned that further tightening is needed, and shared his openness to a larger 50bps rate hike if Oct core CPI (M/M) printed at 0.3% or above. The report is set to be published today, where consensus for the core is at 0.2%.
FX
- DXY was initially softer, but now trades flat on the session within a 101.55-101.74 range. Initial pressure stemmed from falling energy prices as the geopolitical backdrop improves, but the index then jumped after hawkish comments from the Fed’s Waller. He mentioned that further policy tightening will be needed, adding that a 50bps rate hike may be needed in December if October core CPI inflation comes in around 0.3% or higher. Comments come ahead of the October CPI report this afternoon, whereby the Core M/M metric is expected to print at 0.2%. Therefore, a hotter-than-expected report will likely cement a December rate hike, with money markets potentially even pricing in a chance of a larger 50bps move.
- EUR/USD is flat and holds within a 1.1216-1.1239 range. The single currency remains at the whim of the USD, with little reaction seen to French Q3 unemployment falling to 8.2% (exp. 8.4%). On the central bank front, ECB’s Moulin said he expects policy continuity if either Knot or de Cos takes over as ECB President.
- GBP/USD is a touch lower and holds within a 1.3427-1.3458 range. BoE Deputy Governor Lombardelli said, according to the Guardian, a further 25bps hike in December is plausible, with every meeting live, but that the decision will depend on developments in the Iran conflict; little reaction was seen. UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor came in at 1.1% Y/Y (exp. 1.2%).
- USD/JPY trades within a 157.85-158.16 range. Japanese Household Spending fell 6.7% Y/Y (exp. -3.1%), while the current account surplus narrowed more than expected. The BoJ Summary of Opinions showed a member saying the BoJ should raise rates when possible without becoming too cautious.
- Antipodeans are mixed: NZD/USD is firmer at the top end of a 0.5622-0.5649 range, with RBNZ chief economist Conway saying the MPC agrees further rate hikes are needed. AUD/USD is softer within a 0.6909-0.6930 range, beneath its 21DMA at 0.6983, after varied Australian consumer and business surveys and mixed Chinese trade data.
- NOK is softer, with EUR/NOK gradually climbing to the top of a 10.508-10.570 range after Norwegian CPI came in cooler than expected at 3.6% Y/Y (exp. 3.7%), with core CPI at 2.7% (exp. 2.8%).
FIXED INCOME
- A contained start has given way to a Waller-induced bearish skew in USTs, while EGBs and Gilts hold onto initial gains.
- USTs spent the morning under very modest pressure, of a few ticks at most, in contrast to peers at the time which were modestly firmer. A discrepancy that was potentially a factor of the constructive risk tone lifting US yields early doors, while Europe reacts more to the energy moves as Dutch TTF began lower (though since off lows) and crude continues to falter.
- Then, USTs were hit and pushed below the 107-00 handle to a 106-27+ base on hawkish remarks from Fed’s Waller. Waller, in short, said a December move is warranted and if October’s Core CPI at 13:30GMT today prints around 0.3% (exp. 0.2%, prev. 0.3%) or above, then a 50bps hike could be merited.
- Waller’s remarks saw pricing for a 25bps December hike increase from just over 80%, to >99%. Further out, December 2027 also shifted hawkishly, though the base case remains a 4.25-4.50% rate by then; currently, the target rate is 3.75-4.00%. After CPI, we get commentary from Logan, Schmid, Bowman and Paulson.
- Back to Europe, Bunds hit a 123.25 peak in the mid-morning, as global crude benchmarks hit lows on continued geopolitical optimism and despite a handful of comments/sources from the Iranian side that are less constructive on the situation. Since, EGBs have faded from best on the readacross from Waller, but also as Dutch TTF pared its losses, after the morning’s regional weather forecasts turned colder.
- Finally, Gilts opened on the front foot given the energy moves. Hit an 87.29 peak, firmer by about 40 ticks at best. Aside from energy, focus on BoE commentary after Lombardelli made clear that every meeting is live, but that it is too soon to make a call on December, and referenced market pricing as being about 50/50. Since, Breeden spoke on cost-push inflation. Ahead, we have Pill scheduled; it will be interesting if he does not lean towards a December move, given his hawkish bias.
- UK sold GBP 1bln 5.375% 2056 Gilt: avg. yield 5.54% (prev. 5.517%), b/c 3.75x (prev. 3.84x), tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.3bps).
- Japan sold JPY 450.7bln 30-yr JGBs; b/c 3.36x (prev. 3.88x), average yield 3.847% (prev. 4.109%). Lowest accepted price 104.55 vs prev. 101.05. Average accepted price 104.90 vs prev. 101.21. Tail in price 0.35 vs prev. 0.16.
COMMODITIES
- Crude benchmarks are lower and extending declines after Monday’s slump, as the mood between the US and Iran turned more constructive (see below for details). WTI Dec’26 trades within a USD 83.88-86.93/bbl range (vs Monday’s USD 85.02-91.42/bbl range), while Brent Jan’27 moves within USD 89.21-92.84/bbl (vs Monday’s USD 90.56-98.43/bbl range). Ahead, the EIA STEO is due later today.
- Dutch TTF is lower within a EUR 78.92-82.00/MWh range, having dipped beneath EUR 80/MWh and Monday’s 79.00 low before paring, likely tracking the weakness in crude amid hopes of the Strait of Hormuz reopening.
- Spot gold is softer within a USD 4,081.22-4,146.70/oz range (vs Monday’s USD 4,054.49-4,148.60/oz range), taking a breather after rallying yesterday alongside lower oil prices and as the USD benefits from hawkish comments from the Fed’s Waller.
- 3M LME copper is softer, at the bottom of a USD 13,837.00-13,991.73/t range (vs Monday’s USD 13,776.63-13,938.00/t range), having been underpinned by the constructive mood earlier, with the upside capped as participants digested the latest Chinese trade data, in which imports rose 41.6% Y/Y (exp. 32.0%) and exports 35.2% (exp. 33.5%), although the trade surplus narrowed more than expected.
- In geopolitics, meetings between US President Trump, VP Vance and the Qatari PM were described as positive, while Trump said the US is “locked and loaded” but that military action seems unlikely at this point. A rerun of yesterday’s reports this morning reiterated that a Qatari-Pakistani proposal increases the likelihood of a preliminary agreement to reduce Iranian uranium enrichment, with the proposal that would immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US naval blockade, and the US proposal including the release of USD 6-9bln in Iranian assets if an agreement is reached. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Araghchi said there are no plans for a meeting between Supreme National Security Council chief Rezaei and US VP Vance. Ahead, geopolitics will likely dominate the tape (barring US CPI), with traders eyeing US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine mediation efforts, with the trilateral Russia-Ukraine-US meeting taking place in Abu Dhabi today and tomorrow.
- UAE’s ADNOC set December Murban Crude OSP at USD +4/bbl vs Dubai quotes, reports suggest.
- UAE is reportedly selling 1.7mln barrels of Arab light from a salvaged tanker, loading between November 10th and 20th.
- German Chancellor Merz is in favour of maintaining the EU’s approach to emissions trading, Handelsblatt reported; the Chancellor is against weakening the regulation any further.
TRADE/TARIFFS
- USTR announces the US extends the trade probe regarding Vietnam’s IP protection for three months to the end of February.
- White House considering new export controls on NVIDIA (NVDA) advanced chips, according to The Information.
- China’s Finance Ministry said Vice Premier He Lifeng and Canada’s Minister of Finance and Trade Minister co-chaired the second Canada-China economic and financial strategic dialogue. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to multilateralism and support for a transparent and predictable trade and investment environment. Both sides welcomed the implementation of bilateral local currency swap arrangements and recent positive progress in China-Canada trade consultations. The Finance Ministry, financial regulators and central banks of the two countries separately signed a memorandum of understanding on fiscal cooperation.
- Canadian Finance Minister said Canada modifies tariff relief measures, extending the horizontal remission for US tariffs by one year to June 30th 2028. Canada tariff relief will include non-steel goods used in mining, quarrying, or the extraction of oil and gas. Canada is granting targeted tariff relief for certain imported goods that are in short supply in the Canadian market.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- UK Barclays Consumer Spending in October rose 2.3% Y/Y (prev. 2.0% increase in September), which is the largest increase since July 2025.
- UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Oct YY) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.0%).
- Swedish Construction Output (Sep YY) 3.1% (Prev. 3.9%).
- Swedish Industrial Production (Sep YY) -3.7% (Prev. 5.8%).
- Swedish Industrial Production (Sep MM) -3.2% (Prev. 5.4%).
- Swedish New Orders (Sep YY) 8.4% (Prev. 3.8%).
- French Unemployment Rate (Q3) 8.2% vs. Exp. 8.4% (Prev. 8.3%).
- Norwegian Core CPI (Oct MM) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.2%); Norwegian Core CPI (Oct YY) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 3.0%).
- Norwegian CPI (Oct MM) 0.3% (Prev. 0.5%); Norwegian CPI (Oct YY) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.4%).
CENTRAL BANKS
- Fed’s Waller (Voter) said that further policy tightening will be needed; Waller said half-point rate hike may be needed in December if October core CPI inflation comes in around 0.3% or higher. OUTLOOK FOR INTEREST RATES: Waller said half-point rate hike may be needed in December if October core CPI inflation comes in around 0.3% or higher. Waller would support quarter-point rate hike in December even if October CPI improves. Waller said further policy tightening will be needed. FORWARD GUIDANCE: Waller said what matters is that promised hikes are delivered within a reasonable period of time. Waller said he was willing to wait on policy tightening in October. INFLATION: Waller said US inflation is too high. Waller said September’s inflation data were bad. Waller said he is particularly concerned about the breadth of price increases. Waller said Fed staff analyses suggest more producer price increases ahead. Waller said Fed staff analyses point to potential for energy price shock to be more persistent. LABOUR MARKET: Waller said labour market is solid, with supply and demand roughly in balance. Waller said employment is close to the Fed’s goal. Waller said it is unclear whether labour market is as healthy as the unemployment rate suggests. Waller said questions over labour market dynamism and productivity growth need more research. GDP GROWTH: Waller suspects GDP growth is backing off in current quarter. Waller expects output to continue growing at a solid pace.
- Fed’s Waller (Q&A) said he expects further tightening “sooner rather than later” to return inflation towards 2% over the medium term. A 0.3% MM rise in US October CPI would indicate inflation is moving away from target and would require more aggressive policy action. Does not think we will see broad-based productivity gains from AI for a while. In the context of recent equity moves, said that is generally not too important for his monetary assessment. Revised up his neutral view, and in that context, policy is not as tight as he thought it might be some 18 months ago. At a minimum they need to take back the three insurance cuts. But, he is not “super hawkish”, does not want to “slam” the US economy. Not looking to tighten by 150bps or 200bps. The balance sheet is not a tool that will be used for tightening. Does not think his peers on the Fed believe rates are in the correct place. Recent pullback in market pricing for the Fed has moved it to be more in-line with the Fed’s view.
- BoJ Summary of Opinions noted that a member said it is appropriate to continue raising rates as underlying inflation nears the price target, while a member said maintaining policy is suitable to assess risks around the economy and prices a little more.
- ECB’s Lane said it would be prudent to hike rates in December if incoming data do not materially change the outlook, speaking to Bloomberg.
- ECB’s Moulin expects policy continuity if either Knot or de Cos takes over as ECB President.
- BoE’s Breeden said firms are now very good at adapting to cost shocks.
- BoE Deputy Governor Lombardelli said a further 25bps rate hike in December is plausible, with every meeting live, but a decision will depend on developments in the Iran conflict, the Guardian reported.
- RBNZ chief economist Conway said inflation is too high in New Zealand and the MPC agrees further rate hikes are needed. Pockets of weakness remain in the domestic economy. There is clear excess capacity in the labour market. Risk is that cost shocks become broader inflation pressures.
- PBoC injected CNY 190bln via overnight reverse repos with the rate at 1.25%.
- PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7167 vs exp. 6.6655 (prev. 6.7188).
- Riksbank Minutes: overall, members are skewed towards further tightening, but the exact timing is less clear.
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- A Russian delegation has departed for Abu Dhabi for talks with the US and Ukraine, TASS reported citing a source. Recent reporting suggests talks have paused for a break.
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces hit a cargo vessel and a tanker in the Black Sea, according to IFX.
- UK Defence Secretary Streeting said UK and Russia need a new back channel of communication to avoid the risk of a miscalculation, according to FT.
- US Envoy Kushner said that “the meeting with the Ukrainians, Russians and European partners was very positive”.
- Ukrainian official Umerov said the Ukrainian delegation has begun meetings in the UAE; the first meeting in Abu Dhabi is with European, NATO and EU representatives, alongside US envoys Witkoff and Kushner.
US-IRAN:
- Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said mediation efforts are ongoing, positive responses from both sides, and mediation has gained significant momentum in recent days.
- An Iranian diplomatic source denies reports of an agreement with the US on uranium enrichment at 3.67% or other nuclear issues, insisting Tehran’s two-day proposal remains unchanged and no detailed nuclear discussions have taken place, according to Avash.
- A Qatari-Pakistani proposal increases the likelihood of a preliminary agreement to reduce Iranian uranium enrichment, according to Al Hadath citing sources; US proposal includes releasing USD 6-9bln in Iranian assets if an agreement is reached. Qatari-Pakistani proposal would immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US naval blockade.
- US President Trump posted that he had an excellent conversation with Qatar’s PM and discussed Iran, while he noted that several Gulf states would prefer the status quo, in other words, a continuation of the naval blockade and the new Operation Iron Gate.
- US President Trump said US is locked and loaded with the best equipment ever made, but adds that they don’t think there’s going to be a reason to use it. Iran militarily is effectively over. Iran is talking to us very politely.
- Qatar’s PM Al Thani said he discussed the region with US President Trump and discussed ways to progress US-Iran talks.
- Qatar’s PM has made an unscheduled stop at the G7 to brief Europeans and Saudi Arabia on the Middle East situation following talks with US President Trump.
- Iranian VP Aref said “Whether peace is achieved or not, the path of confrontation with the enemy will continue”.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said there are no plans for a meeting between Supreme National Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei and US Vice President Vance, Al Mayadeen reported. Solution to the conflict is in diplomacy and the implementation of the conditions Iran has outlined.
- Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei said war on Iran has inflicted grave damage on the US government and called on the US to stop publishing false news about illusory negotiations. The time has come to surrender to the seven conditions that Iran has set out again and again.
- Adviser to the Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force said one of the areas of progress for Iranian specialists is designing missiles that use waves emitted from radar systems, enabling the identification and targeting of the enemy’s radar equipment. The ‘Hormuz’ missile was designed with the aim of countering radar systems and is capable of homing in on sources of radar wave emissions.
- Sound of an explosion in the Strait of Hormuz, Sabereen reported.
- “Explosion of two violating oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz”, IRIB reports.
SAUDI-HOUTHI:
- Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed two missiles launched by Yemen’s Houthis towards Riyadh.
- Saudi airstrikes continue against residential areas in Yemen’s Saada, according to reports cited by SNN.
OTHERS
- Israel conducts an airstrike on Al-Qantara in southern Lebanon, according to Mehr News.
- US President Trump said on call with C-Span that Venezuela gave the US 1mln barrels last week and that we will find out whether an Iran deal will happen.
- Iraq will temporarily close its Mandali border crossing with Iran from Friday to complete technical requirements. Will reopen the Sheeb border crossing with Iran.
- Gulf Cooperation Council states agree to establish a military command headquarters in Kuwait.
- North Korean leader Kim’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, criticised South Korea’s announcement regarding the landmine blast and criticised the UN Secretary General for echoing Seoul’s position and breaching neutrality, according to KCNA.
- Yemeni news sources report Saudi airstrikes on a gas station and an oil company building in Sana’a and a missile strike on the eastern city of Saada, according to IRNA.
- Taiwan said China is conducting ‘area denial’ drills in the Western Pacific.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is a touch firmer this morning and trades around the USD 74.3k, whilst Ethereum is flat and holds around USD 2.1k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded higher as markets continued to claw back the losses from the recent tech slump, while lower oil prices and US-Iran optimism also provided some encouragement.
- ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in real estate, industrials and the mining sector amid tailwinds from a lower yield environment in Australia.
- Nikkei 225 rallied back above the 60,000 level with SoftBank spearheading the advances amid the tech rebound and with stocks unfazed by the weaker-than-expected Household Spending data from Japan.
- KOSPI benefitted from the tech rally with a sidecar triggered in early trade but is off today’s best levels.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive but lagged behind regional peers as participants digested the somewhat mixed trade data in which dollar-denominated Exports and Imports topped forecasts, although Trade Balance was at a narrower-than-forecast surplus and yuan-denominated Exports slowed.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese Finance Minister said BoJ is estimated to make JPY 1tln from faster ETF sales and it is undecided how much BoJ will remit to the government. No impact on BoJ operations from how much proceeds the government expects from the BoJ’s ETF sales. Some smaller banks are worried about money shifting to retail JGBs. Nothing decided on preferential tax treatment for retail JGBs and will leave the debate to the LDP.
- New Zealand PM Luxon meets with Opportunity Party leader Wong ahead of a pact.
NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP
- Japanese Economy Watchers Survey Outlook (Oct) 46.5 (Prev. 47.4); Japanese Eco Watchers Survey Current (Oct) 46.1 vs. Exp. 46.8 (Prev. 47.0).
- Japanese Bank Lending (Oct YY) 5.2% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 5.3%); Japanese Current Account (Sep) 2.372tln vs. Exp. 3.354tln (Prev. 4.062tln).
- Japanese Household Spending (Sep MM) -2.8% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.1%); Japanese Household Spending (Sep YY) -6.7% vs. Exp. -3.1% (Prev. -3.1%).
- Chinese Exports (CNY) (Oct YY) 28.7% (Prev. 29.6%); Chinese Imports (CNY) (Oct YY) 34.7% (Prev. 24.6%); Chinese Trade Balance Yuan (Oct) 712.78B vs. Exp. 859B (Prev. 905.97B).
- Australian NAB Business Confidence (Oct) -15 (Prev. -13); Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Nov) 82.6 (Prev. 80.4); Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Nov) 2.7% (Prev. -4.7%).
NOTABLE APAC EQUITY HEADLINES
- Softbank (9984 JT) H1 2026 (JPY): Net -768bln (prev. 2.9tln), Revenue 4.24tln (prev. 3.7tln). Q2 net loss JPY 1.12tln (exp. profit of 129bln). H1 results include the company’s first quarterly net loss in almost two years. Losses were driven by declining valuations of key technology holdings, including Arm (ARM), Intel (INTC) and Coupang (CPNG), amid concerns over AI investment spending and demand. Vision Fund recorded a loss of JPY 81.6bln. SoftBank held a 13% stake in OpenAI at the beginning of October, increasing its exposure to developments in the AI sector.
- SoftBank (9984 JT) books a USD 3.7bln charge related to procurement for US data centres.
- TSMC (2330 TT) October revenue rose 31% Y/Y to TWD 32.0bln.
- Honda (7267 JT) H1 2026 (JPY): Net 516bln (prev. 311bln), Revenue 12tln (prev. 10.6tln); cuts FY global vehicle sales forecast to 3.16mln units (prev. guidance 3.39mln).
1c) Asian opening report
Stocks extend rebound and crude slips as US-Iran talks gain traction; focus turns to US CPI – Newsquawk EU Market Open
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 02:06 AM
- US President Trump said he had an excellent conversation with Qatar’s PM and that US military action against Iran seems unlikely at this point; reports suggest a Qatari-Pakistani proposal has revived US-Iran negotiations.
- APAC stocks traded higher as the tech rebound continued following Wall St’s broad rally; European equity futures point to a positive open.
- DXY was little changed ahead of US CPI, while EUR/USD held above 1.1200 and Cable held above 1.3400.
- Crude extended its declines amid US-Iran optimism, while spot gold pulled back after Monday’s rally.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Norwegian Inflation (Oct), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US CPI (Oct), Riksbank Minutes, EIA STEO, BoC Minutes, BCB Minutes. Speakers include Fed’s Waller, Schmid & Paulson, BoE’s Lombardelli & Pill, ECB’s Lane & Cipollone. Supply from the Netherlands, UK & US. Earnings from CoreWeave, Infineon, Porsche SE, TAG Immobilien & Vodafone.
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SNAPSHOT
IRAN CONFLICT
- US President Trump held a meeting with Qatar’s PM Al Thani, which lasted around 45 minutes and focused on the negotiations with Iran, according to Axios citing sources. It was separately reported that meetings between US President Trump, VP Vance and the Qatari PM were positive, and they discussed ways to progress talks with Iran, according to Axios citing a diplomat briefed on the meetings.
- US President Trump said the US is locked and loaded with the best equipment ever made, but added that they don’t think there’s going to be a reason to use it. Trump commented that Iran militarily is effectively over, and that Iran is talking to them very politely.
- US President Trump posted that he had an excellent conversation with Qatar’s PM and discussed Iran, while he noted that several Gulf states would prefer the status quo, in other words, a continuation of the naval blockade and the new Operation Iron Gate. Trump added that should there be any change with respect to developments in the Middle East, the US is “locked and loaded” and ready to go, but added that at this point, that seems to be quite unlikely.
- US President Trump said after talks with the Qatari PM that Qatar would rather see a peaceful solution with Iran, but the US is ready for strikes if necessary, while he added that Saudi Arabia would also prefer a peaceful solution to the Iran conflict. Furthermore, Trump defended Hegseth and said that he won two wars.
- US President Trump told C-Span that we will find out whether an Iran deal will happen.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said they are dealing with an out-of-control group in Iran.
- US War Secretary Hegseth said Iran is in the weakest position it’s been in a very long time, and that President Trump has the upper hand on any path that he chooses to take. Hegseth earlier commented that previous presidents had failed to deal with Iran and that someone had to confront the Iranian regime, while he also stated he was not worried that enough Republicans would vote against him to secure a conviction in an impeachment battle. Furthermore, it was separately reported that impeachment articles against War Secretary Hegseth have been introduced in the House of Representatives.
- A Qatari-Pakistani proposal revives the path of serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran, with arrangements underway to discuss the return of IAEA inspectors to Iran, without specifying the scope of their mission, according to Arabiya citing sources. Furthermore, it was reported that Washington has allowed uranium enrichment inside Iran at a level of 3.67%, and Tehran has agreed, while discussions are underway regarding the involvement of a third country to facilitate the reduction of highly enriched uranium levels in Iran, and preliminary agreement on reducing Iranian uranium enrichment is likely.
- Preparations are underway in Doha to potentially host a new round of US-Iran talks in the coming week as mediators Pakistan and Qatar work to bridge gaps, according to journalist Anas Mallick.
- Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei said starting a war on Iran has inflicted grave damage on the US government, while he called on the US to stop publishing false news about illusory negotiations. Furthermore, he stated that the time has come to surrender to the seven conditions that Iran has set out again and again.
- Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said the withdrawal of enriched materials from Iran was not an option under any circumstances, according to Mehr News. Baghaei also described the reduction of the deadline for implementing Iran’s proposed plan from seven days to two days as a sign of the Islamic Republic’s seriousness and goodwill in pursuing diplomacy.
- Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said Israelis were working overtime to drag the US into an endless war with Iran, warning that it would become a quagmire from which no president, whether Republican or Democrat, could escape. Ghalibaf added that unless Washington abandoned its “Israel First” mindset, America and its allies were heading towards a dark age.
- IRGC spokesperson said no mines had been cleared in the Strait of Hormuz and that the waterway remained completely closed, while he added that recent incidents involving numerous oil tankers there contradicted US President Trump’s claims.
- Iranian security source said there were currently no plans to hold a meeting with a representative from Washington in Turkey, according to Al Araby TV.
- Adviser to the Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force said one of the areas of progress for Iranian specialists is designing missiles that use waves emitted from radar systems, enabling the identification and targeting of the enemy’s radar equipment, while he added that the ‘Hormuz’ missile was designed with the aim of countering radar systems and is capable of homing in on sources of radar wave emissions.
- Russian military transport aircraft carrying a senior delegation led by the head of Russia’s military intelligence agency landed at Ben Gurion Airport on Saturday evening in an unusual visit to Israel, according to Jerusalem Post citing sources. The purpose of the visit and the subjects discussed during the delegation’s meetings in Israel remain unclear, but the unusual landing of a Russian military aircraft in Israel comes amid heightened regional tensions and ongoing uncertainty over the possibility of renewed military confrontation between the US, Israel and Iran.
- Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed a chemical plant used for mixing and producing ballistic missile fuel for the Houthis, while it intercepted and destroyed two missiles launched by Yemen’s Houthis towards Riyadh.
- Yemeni news sources reported Saudi airstrikes on a gas station and an oil company building in Sana’a, while there was also a missile strike on the eastern city of Saada, according to IRNA.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks closed firmly in the green on Monday as the post-midterm rout continued to unwind. Gains were broad-based, with all major US indices and S&P 500 sectors closing higher, particularly Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Technology and Communication Services. The rally came despite a 5% decline in Nvidia (NVDA) shares amid an investigation involving CEO Jensen Huang following reports of his admitted affair with an alleged Chinese spy. Nonetheless, risk sentiment was also supported by further optimism surrounding the US/Iran conflict. Over the weekend, Trump said he believes it is highly unlikely that he will resume a major military campaign against Iran, while reports via Al Arabiya on Monday suggested the two sides were moving closer to an agreement and noted that a Qatari-Pakistani proposal had revived the prospect of serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
- SPX +2.35% at 7,550, NDX +3.40% at 27,908, DJI +2.15% at 52,390, RUT +3.16% at 2,841.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- White House is reportedly considering new export controls on NVIDIA (NVDA) advanced chips, according to The Information.
- USTR announced that the US extended the trade probe regarding Vietnam’s IP protection for three months to the end of February.
- Canadian Finance Minister said Canada modifies its tariff relief measures, extending the horizontal remission for US tariffs by one year to June 30th 2028, with the tariff relief to include non-steel goods used in mining, quarrying, or the extraction of oil and gas, while Canada is granting targeted tariff relief for certain imported goods that are in short supply in the Canadian market.
- Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said China and Canada have reached agreements during economic discussions, including talks on extending tariff exemptions and EV quotas, whilst reiterating Beijing’s willingness to deepen economic and trade cooperation, identify new areas of collaboration and encourage Chinese companies to invest in Canada.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Barkin (2027 voter) said the main risk lay on the inflation side of the Fed’s mandate, adding that the direction of monetary policy was straightforward but that policymakers should proceed with care. Barkin said he was hearing reports of broad-based cost pressures, while describing the US economy as remarkably stable. Resilient demand alongside widespread cost increases was putting upward pressure on prices, with businesses indicating they would try to pass on higher costs. Barkin also said there is no base case for the December meeting, the current policy rate is likely around or slightly below neutral, and the last jobs report was “healthy”, though he still sees firms in a low-hire, low-fire environment.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said there is a need to speak more about disruption from AI on the economy.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks traded higher as markets continued to claw back the losses from the recent tech slump, while lower oil prices and US-Iran optimism also provided some encouragement.
- ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in real estate, industrials and the mining sector amid tailwinds from a lower yield environment in Australia.
- Nikkei 225 rallied back above the 60,000 level with SoftBank spearheading the advances amid the tech rebound and with stocks unfazed by the weaker-than-expected Household Spending data from Japan.
- KOSPI benefitted from the tech rally with a sidecar triggered in early trade but is off today’s best levels.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive but lagged behind regional peers as participants digested the somewhat mixed trade data in which dollar-denominated Exports and Imports topped forecasts, although Trade Balance was at a narrower-than-forecast surplus and yuan-denominated Exports slowed.
- US equity futures were range-bound following the prior day’s rally and as markets await US CPI data.
- European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.8% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.9% on Monday.
FX
- DXY was little changed ahead of the latest US CPI data and after weakening yesterday alongside the constructive geopolitical backdrop and cooling energy prices amid increased hopes of a US-Iran peace deal, while there was little reaction to the latest Fed comments, including from Barkin, who stated that risk lies on the inflation side of the Fed’s mandate and that there is no base case for the December meeting.
- EUR/USD held on to recent spoils and took a breather after steadily advancing throughout the prior day to return to above the 1.1200 level, in tandem with a softer buck and with very few fresh drivers for the EU.
- GBP/USD paused overnight after having reclaimed the 1.3400 level and with comments from BoE Governor Bailey providing very little incrementally, in which he stated that there were growing signs of the beginnings of a positive supply shock from AI and the investment required to support it.
- USD/JPY rebounded from a brief dip beneath the 158.00 handle as the dollar regained some composure, and with the partial recovery in the pair facilitated by soft data, including the weaker-than-expected Household Spending data and a narrower current account surplus.
- Antipodeans were range-bound after climbing yesterday alongside the positive risk environment, while participants also digested data releases, including varied consumer and business surveys from Australia, and somewhat mixed Chinese trade figures.
- PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7167 vs exp. 6.6655 (prev. 6.7188).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures were subdued after the recent curve flattening and despite the drop in oil prices, as yields gained alongside the continued equity market rebound.
- Bund futures eked out mild gains with price action contained following recent whipsawing.
- 10yr JGB futures lacked demand with a muted reaction to the BoJ Summary of Opinions and to the weaker-than-expected Japanese Household Spending data, while the 30yr JGB auction results were mixed.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures mildly extended declines after slumping yesterday as the mood between the US and Iran turned more constructive, with a peace proposal appearing closer than before, while meetings between US President Trump, VP Vance and the Qatari PM were ‘positive’ and they discussed ways to progress talks with Iran. Furthermore, US President Trump repeated that they are locked and loaded, but added that US military action against Iran is not necessary ‘at this point’.
- Spot gold pulled back after rallying yesterday alongside lower oil prices and a weaker buck, while participants now await the looming US inflation data.
- Copper futures remained underpinned by the constructive mood, but with the upside capped as participants also digested the latest Chinese trade figures.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin trickled lower for most of the session with prices slipping back beneath the USD 75,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoJ Summary of Opinions noted that a member said it is appropriate to continue raising rates as underlying inflation nears the price target, and a member said maintaining policy is suitable to assess risks around the economy and prices a little more. A member noted there is some weakness in the economy, so the economic and price outlook must be carefully monitored, while it was also stated that it is appropriate to continue raising rates as underlying inflation converges towards levels consistent with the price target. There was the opinion that the BoJ should decide to raise rates when possible without becoming too cautious and that Japan is entering a new phase in which the BoJ needs to accelerate the pace of rate hikes towards levels deemed neutral for the economy. Furthermore, a member said underlying inflation has already reached 2%, and the BoJ needs to bring the policy rate to a neutral level soon, although it was also stated that attention must be paid to the risk that future rate hikes could weigh on the economy and push down inflation.
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said the BoJ is estimated to make JPY 1tln from faster ETF sales and it is undecided how much BoJ will remit to the government, while she also stated that some smaller banks are worried about money shifting to retail JGBs and that nothing was decided on preferential tax treatment for retail JGBs with the debate to be left to the LDP.
- RBNZ chief economist Conway said inflation is too high in New Zealand and that the MPC agrees further rate hikes are needed. Conway also stated that pockets of weakness remain in the domestic economy and there is clear excess capacity in the labour market, while he noted the risk is that cost shocks become broader inflation pressures.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Oct) 105.3B vs. Exp. 125.8B (Prev. 133.5B)
- Chinese Exports (USD)(Oct YY) 35.2% vs. Exp. 33.5% (Prev. 36.3%)
- Chinese Imports (USD)(Oct YY) 41.6% vs. Exp. 32.0% (Prev. 31.0%)
- Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Oct) 712.8B vs. Exp. 859.0B (Prev. 906.0B)
- Chinese Exports (CNY)(Oct YY) 28.7% (Prev. 29.6%)
- Chinese Imports (CNY)(Oct YY) 34.7% (Prev. 24.6%)
- Japanese Household Spending (Sep MM) -2.8% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.1%)
- Japanese Household Spending (Sep YY) -6.7% vs. Exp. -3.1% (Prev. -3.1%)
- Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Nov) 82.6 (Prev. 80.4)
- Australian NAB Business Confidence (Oct) -15 (Prev. -13)
GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces hit a cargo vessel and a tanker in the Black Sea, while there were earlier reports of an air raid alert in the Boryspil district of Kyiv.
- US President Trump said Abu Dhabi talks this week regarding the war in Ukraine present the chance of a possible breakthrough.
- US official said conversations with Ukrainian and Russian officials were taking place daily and that European partners would join the Abu Dhabi talks on Ukraine, while Washington would seek to persuade Russia to accept a multilateral format. The official said Europe needed to be at the negotiating table and that NATO would remain central to the European collective defence, while it was also stated that both sides had shown some flexibility privately on territorial concessions and the proposal was to bring Europeans into discussions following the trilateral meeting.
- US officials said there was a ‘real shot’ at making ‘serious progress’ towards ending the Ukraine-Russia war in talks scheduled for Tuesday in Abu Dhabi, according to an RFE/RL reporter.
- UK Defence Secretary Streeting said the UK and Russia need a new back channel of communication to avoid the risk of a miscalculation, according to FT.
OTHER
- US is pushing back against China’s demand for a tightly scripted format at a potential trilateral summit between US, Chinese and Russian leaders on the sidelines of the APEC summit next Wednesday and Thursday, according to WSJ citing sources.
- US Senator Bennet is circulating a letter urging senators to cut off war funding in the next spending bill, according to Semafor’s Everett.
EU/UK
DATA RECAP
- UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Oct YY) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.0%)
- UK Barclays Consumer Spending (Oct YY) 2.3% (Prev. 2.0%)
2.NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA/
JAPAN//
Masa’s $3.7 Billion Bonfire: SoftBank Posts $7 Billion Loss After Torching Deposits On AI Power Gear As Interest Costs Double
SoftBank Group reported a net loss of about ¥1.12 trillion ($7.1 billion) for the July–September 2026 quarter—its first quarterly loss in nearly two years—driven mainly by a $3.7 billion writedown on power-generation equipment for U.S. AI data centers and sharply higher financing costs.
zerohedge.com
Analysts had expected a profit of roughly ¥129 billion. The result reversed a large profit in the year-earlier period (when SoftBank booked major investment gains, including on OpenAI).
bloomberg.com
Key drivers of the loss
- Power equipment writedown (~¥597 billion / $3.7 billion): A SoftBank/Vision Fund 2 vehicle (Silver Bands 7) had made large non-refundable advance payments and secured manufacturing capacity for generators and related gear intended for U.S. AI data-center projects, including an 8-gigawatt campus in Pike County, Ohio. When project requirements evolved, the company revised its procurement strategy. The charge covered non-refundable deposits (~$2.85–2.9 billion) plus contract changes/settlements. SoftBank noted it may be entitled to up to $2.1 billion in future-purchase rebates (not booked as an asset). Cumulative related payments reached around ¥1.5 trillion (~$9.5 billion). Executives cited intense competition to lock in power supply and equipment before final specs were set. reuters.com
- Financing costs more than doubled: Quarterly finance costs hit ~¥462 billion (roughly $2.9 billion). For the six months to September, consolidated finance costs rose to ¥791 billion from ¥340 billion a year earlier. SoftBank has raised large amounts of debt (including high-yield bonds and loans) to fund AI bets such as data centers and its ~$64.6 billion OpenAI stake. zerohedge.com
- Other investment hits: Losses or valuation declines related to holdings such as Intel (including derivative/hedge losses) and Coupang, partially offset by gains in the Vision Funds. mlq.ai
SoftBank’s shares had already fallen more than 50% from their mid-2026 peak amid broader AI-sector jitters, debt concerns, and questions about the pace of AI infrastructure spending. Some reports noted a share rebound after the results. The company remains heavily exposed to AI via OpenAI (now ~13% stake) and data-center projects (including through SB Energy).This headline (from ZeroHedge and covered widely by Bloomberg, Reuters, and others on November 10, 2026) highlights the risks of SoftBank’s aggressive, debt-funded push into AI infrastructure under founder Masayoshi Son, where early commitments on scarce power equipment created a costly write-off when plans shifted.
CHINA
CHINA/TAIWAN
4. EUROPEAN AND SCANDINAVIAN COMMENTARIES PLUS NATO
FRANCE/IRAN
France Blames Iran For Cyberattack That Paralyzed Supermarket Freezers, Vows Retaliation For “Sabotage”
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 04:00 AM
France accused Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of masterminding last month’s cyberattack, which disrupted 700 of the country’s 10,000 supermarkets and struck deep inside the country’s food supply chain.
Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said earlier today in Paris that the IRGC’s operation marked the first large-scale cyberattack aimed at sabotage on French territory. Speaking on the sidelines of the G7 ministerial meeting, he said France had summoned Iran’s ambassador on the matter and was seeking sanctions against the group responsible. 
“This is the first large-scale cyberattack with an aim of sabotage on the national territory,” Barrot said. “It hurts the nation’s interests and the security of French citizens. We will take sanctions at the European level against all who are responsible” and “we will take any other proportionate and necessary measure to respond to this attack and dissuade those who would like to reproduce it.”
Last month, the French finance minister told Parliament that the cyberattack on the country’s supermarkets “touches the heart of our food security” and is a “wake-up call for everyone.”
According to local outlet BFM-TV, hackers forced a continuous defrost cycle and set temperatures at 700 supermarkets as high as 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit).
“Targeting equipment essential to the preservation of fresh products is an attack on the French food supply chain. It is unprecedented, extremely serious, and unacceptable,” Dominique Schelcher, CEO of French grocery chain Cooperative U, told AP News last month.
Related:
So a single cyberattack disrupted hundreds of French supermarkets, exposing the fragility of the country’s food supply chain. Add mounting unrest by communist groups and a deepening debt crisis, and the failing Macron government faces a collision of crises as Marine Le Pen’s odds surge on Polymarket ahead of next April’s elections.
END
UK
Why Are So Many British Charities Lobbying For Open Borders?
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 03:20 AM
Authored by Joanna Williams via Spiked,
Next time someone rattles a tin, and you reach for a couple of quid to help rough sleepers, starving donkeys or sick children, think twice. It’s long been clear that major charities are run like businesses; less well known is that they receive vast sums of taxpayers’ money. And while it might be understandable that big charities try to influence government policy to further their aims, some stretch this role to campaign on issues far removed from the cause they claim to support.
Take immigration. This week, home secretary Shabana Mahmood backed down on her plan to extend the amount of time immigrants must work in the care sector before qualifying for indefinite leave to remain in the UK. By her own admission, this decision will cost the British public billions of pounds. So what brought about her u-turn? Mahmood was obviously under pressure to appease Labour left-wingers offended by the mere suggestion of border controls. Then there was the government’s sham ‘consultation’, in which almost three-quarters of respondents were immigrants themselves. Alongside this came the voice of the charity sector.
In total, 560 charities either responded to the government’s consultation or petitioned members of parliament. Two-thirds of them argued that not just care workers, but all migrants – including those who arrive in the UK illegally – should be allowed to settle in Britain permanently without having to meet any conditions. This would effectively leave the UK with open borders – a position that no party has ever dared put before the British public.
Some of these charities receive vast sums of taxpayer money. Collectively, 38 of the charities that responded to the government consultation received an astonishing £1 billion from taxpayer-funded contracts or grants in the last financial year. One charity that received almost £1million from the British government is Praxis, an organisation that supports migrants and refugees. It argues for all immigrants to be allowed to live permanently in the UK, with full access to our generous benefits system. In March, Praxis, along with other charities, helped bring more than 500 people to parliament to lobby around 100 MPs against proposals to tighten restrictions on who qualifies for indefinite leave to remain.
Of course, political activists are perfectly entitled to make a case for open borders. They should be free, like anyone else, to present their arguments to the public and win people over to their cause. Campaigning might mean lobbying politicians, and it will almost certainly require raising money. Fair enough. But charitable work and political activism should be quite distinct activities, especially when taxpayers’ money is involved. Donors to migrant charities might think they are paying towards the cost of feeding and housing refugees from war-torn countries, not for political lobbying. Instead, they are contributing to a pot that includes public money, yet is used to fund campaigns the public does not support.
The law is clear: charities must work only to further their charitable purposes, and must not use taxpayer money for lobbying or political activity. But it seems that only a tenuous interest in migration or the care sector was enough to justify charities contributing to the government’s consultation. Mencap, for example, helps people with learning disabilities. In the financial year ending March 2025, it received more than £200million from government contracts and grants. In the recent consultation, Mencap told government ministers they should ‘retain the five-year pathway’ to indefinite leave to remain for social-care workers. Likewise, Barnardo’s, a charity supporting children growing up in poverty, received £192million in contracts and grants. It chimed in with the suggestion that it ‘does not support the principles of earned settlement… as a basis for determining whether children can live safely and securely in the UK’.
The British public is being betrayed. Generous citizens might assume that the tenner they bung to someone raising money for Barnardo’s will help children growing up in poverty, only to discover it is used to pay for people to lobby government ministers on a very different issue. And taxpayers who have repeatedly rejected mass migration at the ballot box find that their hard-earned income is being used to back precisely this cause.
Two clear winners emerge from this underhanded process. Directors of major charities earn huge salaries, often running well into six figures. Their pay packets let them espouse luxury beliefs, safe in the knowledge that their encounters with migrants are far more likely to be with a cheap nanny or cleaner than young men living next door in a house in multiple occupation. Politicians also win. Rather than being held accountable for their decisions, they can point to support from charities and lobbyists to justify their actions.
The fact that our money is being used to pay charity chief executives to tell government ministers what they want to hear is a gross betrayal of the British public. It’s time the sector was brought into line.
Joanna Williams is a columnist at spiked. Her latest book, The Breaking of the Education Contract: Why We Need to Keep Politics Out of Schools, is available from Civitas. You can also follow Joanna on Substack.
END
FRANCE
‘Clownery & Consequences’: France Bows To The Reality Of Its Debt Crisis
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Thomas Kolbe via American Thinker,
Tax-advantaged bonds reserved for French citizens, a debt write-off at the ECB, or shifting part of the bill onto the Germans — France’s approach to its national debt is at times creative, at times brazen. Above all, this curious collection of ideas reveals complete helplessness in dealing with public finances.
When societies drift toward central planning and state-run economies, only nuances separate political clownery from its disastrous real-world consequences.
Political initiative turns into permanent intervention — and eventually, the resources run out.
At the moment when fiscal reality hits, political elites appear overwhelmed and helpless.
France, in particular, has taken its state-run economy and welfare system a long way. The latter has settled over society like a sedative. In its naïve belief in the omnipotence of the state, the country has spiraled into a debt trap.
In an effort to create some financial breathing room, the parliamentary LIOT group (Libertés, Indépendants, Outre-mer et Territoires) presented an unusual proposal. It wants to raise a kind of citizen loan worth 50 billion euros, financed through government bonds available exclusively to French citizens. An interest rate of 3.5 percent is supposed to channel French savings into this financing vehicle, which would also guarantee tax-free interest payments.
With a maturity of ten years and an inflation rate that has now climbed above three percent in France, this is hardly an attractive deal — particularly as the country’s debt continues to rise unchecked and the budget deficit is expected to exceed six percent next year. With every passing year, the default risk on French bonds increases. Nor will the attempt to shift the debt from foreign to domestic creditors change that. The lawmakers expect this curious bond to generate interest savings of up to 25 billion euros over ten years. The government has so far rejected the proposal. France is in a state of political lockdown.
There is no room left to maneuver in fiscal policy. Any attempt at austerity is met by the United Left in the streets. Migrant riots, looting, and orchestrated chaos block this route out of the budget crisis. That leaves tax policy. With government spending accounting for more than 57 percent of the economy, tax increases have become inevitable year after year, as the economy can no longer develop.
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has turned the tax screws sharply. This year, his government extended the special levy on the profits of large corporations as well as the 20 percent minimum tax on high incomes. This was followed by a levy on certain luxury assets held in wealth-management structures and a two-euro charge on small parcels shipped from outside the EU — a measure that was subsequently scrapped because the EU is now taking care of the matter. The 2027 budget proposal also envisages further additional burdens, including for companies and employers, as well as for certain food products and rental models.
France is becoming an expensive place to do business. Its private economy is shrinking. The welfare state is exploding, while private investment is nowhere to be seen.
A proposal from the far-left fringe of parliament comes at just the right moment. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, founder and leading figure of the La France insoumise party, came up with the brilliant idea of eliminating that portion of the national debt held by the Banque de France within the Eurosystem.
A fiscal magic trick: one side simply burns the other side’s junk — after all, it is all the same club, the state apparatus.
Public debt would shrink by roughly 18 percent, seemingly out of thin air. Such is the economics of the radical left.
The potential feedback effects and panic reactions in the bond market in response to this extraordinary proposal are simply ignored. That is as far as the superficial thinking of the radical left goes. They are economic gamblers who will keep playing until, as Maggie Thatcher once observed, they run out of other people’s money.
But France would not be France if it did not also attempt to combine patriotism with fiscal ingenuity. Politicians, as we know, are creative when it comes to bending the rules. Rational solutions involving possible social hardships that might hurt their electoral prospects, however, are not particularly popular. The question, then, is how to outdo LIOT’s curious national bond and the communists’ infantile fiscal destruction.
An answer came just a few weeks ago from Marine Le Pen, the potential next president of France. The leading figure of the Rassemblement National came up with the bridge-building idea of using the carbon intensity of each national economy as the basis for calculating part of the EU member contributions. Put simply: Let the Germans pay through the nose while we take it easy.
Cut spending in Brussels and make the Germans foot the bill for our own lavish pensions, hyper-expansive welfare state, and inability to reform — this is precisely the kind of issue from which the coming conflicts within the political right will emerge.
A fragmented political right coming to power in the EU, one that ultimately retreats into national sovereignty even in matters of fiscal and monetary policy, would spell the end of the European Union and, in particular, the Eurosystem. A quick look at the rising national debts across the eurozone reveals that everything in the EU is moving toward this final crescendo.
Big Government, state-run economies, and welfare systems — these are the defining features of Europe in our era. A cultivated apathy in economic life, an astonishing delusion in matters of migration policy, and the expanding role of the state in an increasingly unfree society will become stumbling blocks for Western Europe. The mounting public debt is an expression of a desperate attempt to cling to the prosperity of the past. Only now is it slowly becoming apparent that this prosperity was long ago ground down in the name of the welfare state
EUROPE/ASIA/USA
What Could The Eurasian Order Look Like If Trump Cuts A Series Of Deals To Save MAGA?
Monday, Nov 09, 2026 – 11:20 PM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Andrew Korybko’s Newsletter,
The purpose in sharing this scenario forecast is to generate a discussion within Trump 2.0 and among experts in Russia, Iran, and China about the political feasibility of the proposed compromises aimed at stabilizing Eurasia and facilitating a MAGA comeback in 2028.
It was earlier assessed that “MAGA Can Only Be Saved By Trump Cutting Grand Deals With Russia, Iran, & China” that advance some of their most sensitive interests in order to reduce the risk of them from raising Americans’ cost of living at MAGA’s expense in 2028. Each compromise would have second-order consequences for their regions and could lead to more dealmaking by Trump to wrap up the loose ends that could derail his dream of a MAGA comeback. The resultant Eurasian Order will now be detailed.
Beginning with Russia as elaborated on here more at length, the US’ compromises would be to withdraw most or all of its forces from post-1997 NATO members with the possible removal of its nuclear umbrella over them, though European NATO’s forces might remain under an Anglo-Franco nuclear umbrella. The US would also obtain stakes in Russian pipelines and energy companies as “political safeguards” for the resumption of Russian exports to the EU to replace lost US imports that would be redirected back home.
As for Iran, the US would lift its energy-related sanctions, withdraw its forces from the Gulf (who’d be replaced by the Islamic NATO‘s), and commit to not intervene in Israel’s support if Israel initiates another war with Iran. Wrapping everything up, the US would completely cut off Taiwan, thus leading to its return to the Mainland. If Trump has the political will to cut such grand deals, then there’d be second-order consequences for the South Caucasus, Yemen, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Northeast Asia.
Regarding the first, the US could commit to not exploit August 2025’s “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) as a Turkish-led NATO military logistics corridor along Russia’s southern periphery, thus eliminating the risk of a major war. The US’ new mineral investments in Central Asia could also reach its shores via the Trans-Siberian Railway instead of TRIPP since that would take them directly to its West Coast tech hub instead of having to go across the Panama Canal or the Heartland.
Moving along to Yemen, the simplest solution is to recognize its redivision into two states, with no blockade or sanctions against the Houthi-controlled North after the restoration of its independence. Next, the Kashmir Conflict has been deadlocked for decades, so the US could propose recognizing the Line of Control as the formal border between India and Pakistan. One or both might refuse, however, but then the US could threaten to cut off military ties and/or impose more tariffs to get them to reconsider.
The “Asian Arc” stretching from Northeast to Southeast Asia could see Japan nuclearizing as a counterbalance to China and extending its umbrella over South Korea if the US withdraws a significant number of its forces from Northeast Asia. They could be redeployed to Southeast Asia to deter China from changing the maritime status quo (which might become formalized) in parallel with reaffirming the US’ mutual defense obligations to the Philippines and possibly expanding them to Vietnam and others.
The Eurasian Order would be fundamentally transformed through this proposed revolution in US foreign policy, but to be absolutely clear, this piece is only a scenario forecast; it’s not a prediction and shouldn’t be misinterpreted or maliciously misportrayed as one. The purpose in sharing it is to generate a discussion within Trump 2.0 and among experts in Russia, Iran, and China about the political feasibility of the proposed compromises aimed at stabilizing Eurasia and facilitating a MAGA comeback in 2028.
We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.
END
SCANDANAVIA
Nordic Power Prices Could Soar This Winter As Hydropower Reserves Plunge
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 04:40 AM
Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice,
Low water levels in hydropower reservoirs and soaring natural gas prices are putting upward pressure on power prices in the Nordic countries as winter approaches, Denmark-based energy trader Mind Energy says.
The surge in gas prices and potentially reduced hydropower generation in southern Norway and Sweden could lead to price spikes this winter, especially if there are prolonged periods of low wind speeds, the analysts said.
In its November recap insight, Mind Energy said that “Winter is upon us, and panic is evident across the European energy markets, which had clearly underestimated the seriousness of the situation earlier in the year.”
The price spikes in European natural gas prices in October and the “severe hydrological pressure on the Nordics ahead of winter” could send electricity prices soaring in the coming months, according to the analysts.
Chart shows US and EU NatGas prices in USD/volume equivs (EU NG 8x US)
The Nordics will enter the heating season with noticeably less water in the system than normal at this time of year, Mind Energy reckons, adding that in the southernmost Norwegian price area, NO2, there has not been as little water in the reservoirs in 30 years as there is right now.
“This naturally puts further pressure on the already vulnerable southern price areas in the Nordics,” the analysts said.
“The Nordic countries are of course greatly affected by the extremely strained situation on the gas market, and the impact this has on Europe as a whole, but the other important element that has contributed to the large price increases in October is the strained hydrological situation,” Karsten Sander Nielsen, Senior Market Analyst at Mind Energy, said in the insight.
Peter Nikolaj Krebs, vice president of customer trading at Mind Energy, told Reuters, “When the wind drops, prices in Denmark and southern Sweden and southern Norway are getting set by German gas plants.”
With gas prices at their highest since the end of 2022, power prices in the Nordics, with lowered hydropower potential, are in for a volatile winter with price spikes.
END
UK//IRAN
Pentagon Scrambles Tankers From Second British Base, Weeks After Bombers Fled Fairford
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 08:25 AM
The U.S. military moved refueling tankers and other aircraft out of RAF Mildenhall in England on Monday over a reported Iranian threat, the Wall Street Journal reported, weeks after Washington pulled its B-1 bombers from RAF Fairford for the same reason.
Two KC-135 tankers diverted to Germany early Monday, and several more left later in the day for Germany and other locations, according to the Journal. Flight-tracking data showed at least eight tankers and three Ospreys leaving, NBC News reported: some KC-135s went to Germany and Spain, one to Glasgow Prestwick in Scotland, and the CV-22B Ospreys to nearby RAF Lakenheath.
A U.S. official told NBC the aircraft were operating under “enhanced force protection measures” and declined to name the threat. Mildenhall and Lakenheath were both raised to Force Protection Condition Charlie, the second-highest alert level, per the Journal, via Reuters. The exact nature of the threat is still under discussion among U.S. officials.
U.S. European Command said aircraft rotate between locations for training and real-world requirements, and that “due to operations security, we will not provide further information on movement of assets.” A British Ministry of Defence spokesperson said the ministry does “not routinely comment on the activity of other nations.”
Mildenhall hosts the 100th Air Refueling Wing and its KC-135s, along with RC-135 intelligence aircraft and Ospreys, Stars and Stripes reported. Lakenheath, a few miles away, flies F-15E Strike Eagles and F-35As.
The move follows a security scare at Fairford that has never been fully explained. Five men were detained on Sept. 27 after three suspicious vans were seen heading toward the base, which had supported U.S. strikes on Iran, and two more were later arrested. As we noted, two men were charged in the UK over the incident. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said last month the activity was likely coordinated in Iran; Tehran denies any involvement. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned in July that any base used to attack Iranian territory is a legitimate target.
About a week ago, European Command launched a theater-wide “See Something, Do Something” campaign urging personnel to vary their commuting routes, switch off fitness-app location tracking and limit what they post on social media, Stars and Stripes reported, without naming a specific threat. It came after warnings of possible Iranian-backed attacks on U.S. bases in Britain. As we noted last week, an Iranian state TV analyst had eyed European military bases as targets.
The evacuation lands while the White House talks up peace. Citing “momentum” in negotiations, President Trump downplayed new strikes on Monday, saying, “Iran militarily is effectively over,” that further attacks “won’t be necessary,” and that Washington remains “locked and loaded.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. had addressed reported Iranian threats against American diplomats overseas by “moving people away from the threat,” adding, “we’re going to address it.”
Iran has vowed retaliation if the American-Israeli war against it is renewed and has threatened to widen its response beyond the Middle East, NBC reported.
5.RUSSIA AND ISRAEL AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFIARS
ISRAEL/IRAN/USA /TURKEYMONDAY NIGHT
Erdogan Warns Trump Against Another Iran Attack, Cites Regional Economies Suffering
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 02:40 AM
President Trump has lately been making clear that while he wants to give more time for negotiations to develop, he still has major strike options on the table if he decides to review the war against Iran.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has on Monday revealed he sought to warn his American counterpart away from a new bombing campaign in a recent phone call.
“On the way back from Baku in Azerbaijan, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke to the press on the plane,” Al Jazeera reports Monday. “Erdogan says he conveyed an anti-war message to US President Donald Trump.”
“We emphasise at every opportunity that it is possible to resolve these issues through dialogue and diplomacy,” Erdogan told reporters.
But he pointed to signs of another round of war in the region: “Unfortunately, we see a negative shift once again. We are doing our utmost to prevent this,” the Turkish leader said.
“I told Mr. Trump about our reservations, we hope common sense prevails and the region will be saved from the brink of (disaster).”
“More clashes do not mean anything but more losses for our region. It is not only the warring sides paying the price. It affects everyone from Türkiye to the Gulf countries, from Iraq and Syria to Europe and Asia,” he emphasized.
According to more via Al Jazeera: “The US side is saying these are not promising talks, and high-level delegations, including one led by the Qatari prime minister, are expected to speak to Trump.”
And so, Erdogan had “also warned that the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz affects not only Iran and other countries in the region, but also nations around the globe that are fighting inflation and facing many domestic problems.”
Erdogan had said something similar back in September: “We, like the rest of the world, are feeling the inflationary effects of the Iran-centered crisis” – he had stated at the time.
Trump had on Sunday hinted at a big picture settlement possibly involving Russia and China’s input:
“One of the meetings, I think, will be with President [Vladimir] Putin and President Xi [Jinping]. And that’ll be interesting,” Trump told reporters in Florida on Sunday, in reference to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in China’s Shenzhen next week.
“We’ll talk a lot of things, including denuclearisation. But we’ll be talking a lot of things. We’re trying to end the war in Iran, and we’re doing well because, you know, all we have to do, we’re choking it off.”
But by and large, Tehran appears to be sticking by adherence to its ‘seven conditions’ – among them sanctions relief, the removeal of US troops from the region, an end to the US naval blockade, and even the payment of war reparations.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called some of Iran’s conditions “outrageous and ridiculous”.
But Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei responded: “Is it unreasonable that Iran demands that US illegal sanctions and its naval blockade must be lifted before negotiations start and that the war should end on all fronts?”
The Islamic Republic has also been denying that indirect negotiations will resolve the nuclear enrichment question. Tehran has indicated it is not willing to enter nuclear negotiations until after the war is ended.
END
IRAN/USA/ISRAEL
Rubio Says ‘No Need’ For Major Combat Operations In Iran, As Sanctions Are ‘Devastating’
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 10:55 AM
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is in Paris where he told a meeting of G7 ministers on Tuesday that the United States is “open to diplomacy” to end the conflict with Iran but that “the Iranian demands are totally unrealistic.“
Tehran is not backing off its seven conditions, which include things like the removal of sanctions and the payment of war reparations. Rubio stated, “We expect that could change – and if it does, we’re prepared for diplomacy.”
There was one big line in particular from the US top diplomat that is grabbing headlines. Rubio declared there is “no need” for renewed major combat operations against the Islamic Republic.
He signaled that the ecomomic war, however, will keep going and even be intensified: “The economic campaign (against Iran) is so devastating that right now there is no need for major combat operations,” Rubio described after the G7 foreign ministers met. “That’s what I told our allies here today.”
Echoing prior such statements of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Rubio stated, “The economic pressure on Iran is going to get even worse.“
He went on to try and explain how the ratcheting economic pressure is beginning to take effect. “They need money for their nuclear programme. They need money in order to fund terrorism. Everything they do around the world, be it their support for Hamas, Hezbollah, Shia militias, their efforts to kill people all over the world, their cyber activities, their nuclear programme, all these things cost money,” he said.
“The less money they have available to them, the less money they can use to fund their malign and nefarious activities,” Rubio added.
This suggests that the Trump administration is ready to continue with a ‘status quo’ situation. President Trump actually said precisely this on Monday:
Donald Trump has said “Iran militarily is effectively over”, and said that there is “positive momentum” behind negotiations to end the Middle East conflict.
“We’re just keeping it the status quo,” the US president said on Monday. “And we’re doing that really at the behest of countries that are their neighbours.”
And yet, it’s become clear that Washington’s (changing) objectives in the Iran war have not been accomplished. Tehran is this very week boasting that it has taken its missile and drone production to its underground ‘missle cities’ – which will further ensure it can expand its arsenal even under US and Israeli bombs
Both the White House and Israel have expressed a desire to see the Iranian government implode from within. Similar vibes…
And yet there’s no major protests in the streets, as was hoped. While the economy is indeed being decimated, and with common Iranians struggling amid a currency collapse and runaway inflation, there’s a likelihood that the wartime economic situation could simply persist for many years to come.
Syria is an example of an entire society that was under seige, ravaged by proxy war, its economy in ruins by years of sanctions – and yet the Assad government still managed to last for nearly 14 years. And this was with the Western/Gulf axis having had proxy forces or ‘boots on the ground’ – concentrated heavily in Idlib, and even amid a lengthy US military occupation in the northest of the country.
Ironically, the admin keeps talking tough while carrying a small stick, also politically neutered by last week’s midterm blue wave…
Iran has a population of over 90 million people and is nearly nine times bigger than Syria in terms of geography. It is not simply going to be sanctioned into regime changing itself.
ISRAEL TBN
IRAN//HOUTHIS SAUDI ARABIA/EAST WEST PIPELINE
Houthis Mount Another Large Missile Assault On Riyadh & East-West Pipeline
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 01:55 PM
On Tuesday the Houthis launched another major missile salvo deep inside Saudi Arabia, however Saudi authorities have yet to acknowledge the fresh attack, or to publicly assess possible damage – though there are reports of missile alerts in the kingdom.
The Houthi military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, announced the group once again targeted King Khalid International Airport, as well as multiple pumping stations along the kingdom’s East-West pipeline.
Saree further claimed fresh attacks on an Aramco facility in Abqaiq and the Riyadh’s financial district.
He added that the Houthis “targeted Saudi enemy troop concentrations overseen by the Saudi officer Badr al-Harbi in the al-Mudharabah and Ras al-Arah districts, resulting in a large number of dead and wounded.”
It’s unclear whether the financial district attack was a reference from the day prior, when a Houthi attack damaged an Aramco office in Riyadh.
What’s clear is that these cross-border attacks are coming daily, and the Saudis seem powerfless to stop them, and there’s been no major military help coming from Western allies like the US or UK (only minimal assistance, for example – intelligence cooperation).
The Saudis on Tuesday confirmed missile defenses are active:
Air defences have intercepted and destroyed several missiles launched towards southern Saudi Arabia and Riyadh, according to the Saudi-led coalition currently fighting the Houthis in Yemen.
The coalition also indicated that it intercepted a drone over Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich Eastern Province.
This is having a serious impact on the kingdom’s economy, at a sensitive moment that Gulf states in general are seeking to present themselves as places of ‘stability’ and ripe for investment.
Saree warns investors and companies against “keeping their investments in Saudi Arabia”.
In the meantime, standard and high profile events hosted in the kingdom continue getting canceled, due to spillover from Yemen and the ever-present Houthi aerial attack threat.
Already dozens of major international events which were supposed to take place in September, and October and November have been suspended or else postponed.
Damage in financial district from a prior assault which kicked off the week:
The wartime situation related to both Iran and Yemen is likely to cost Saudi Arabia billions in losses, including given the attacks on Aramco facilities.
The Houthis are also meanwhile blocking all Saudi and Israeli-related shipping off Yemen’s coast in the Red Sea, and the situation shows no signs off an offramp.
END
Iran’s IRGC Says 3 More Oil Tankers Hit By Sea Mines In Strait of Hormuz
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 12:49 PM
Update(12:50ET): On Tuesday Iran has said its forces took out more oil tankers violoating its protocol. The IRGC announced late in the day that a third offending oil tanker on the “unauthorized route of the Strait of Hormuz exploded this afternoon after hitting a naval mine,” as cited in Tasnim.
This has remained a daily occurrence, and with the US naval blockade of Iranian ports still active. Earlier the same day, it was reported:
According to the IRGC Navy, both vessels had switched off their navigation and identification systems before attempting the crossing. The two tankers were left burning near the southern shores of the strait, the statement said.
The IRGC Navy warned that the unauthorized passage remained unsafe and threatened similar consequences for vessels cooperating with the US military that attempted to use the route.
* * *
Update(11:50ET): The last hour has seen a series of statements out of Iran which pour cold war on the recent ‘peace optimism’ coming out of Western headlines, as well as Gulf-sourced reports. This has moved oil prices higher. First, on Tuesday a top Iranian security official said as follows:
Iran’s Security Chief Rezaei says they asked the Americans to provide a clear and explicit response to Iran’s conditions, and they have not provided it to this day, but they may provide this response in the future, reports Al Mayadeen
And in confirmation of this, Iran’s FM then issued the following:
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi says the claim of US VP Vance meeting with Iran’s Security Chief Rezaei is baseless media speculation and there are no plans for such a meeting, reports Irib News.
The day prior saw claims out of the Gulf of some level of a ‘nuclear breakthrough’ in indirect talks. Tehran has denied this as well, saying Washington and its allies keep floating fake news.
The situation remains stalemated, as “Iran has presented its seven conditions and are waiting for the US response, but their initial response was not enough for Iran,” according to state media.
* * *
Brent traded around $91 a barrel and WTI around $85 a barrel as traders continued to assess efforts to de-escalate the Iran war and restore Middle East energy flows. The good news is that US gasoline prices have dipped below the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon level, just weeks before one of the year’s busiest travel periods: Thanksgiving.
Let’s begin with overnight diplomatic signaling. President Trump said Monday that further strikes would be unnecessary, though US forces remain “locked and loaded,” adding, “Iran, militarily, is effectively over. We’re just keeping it at the status quo, and we’re doing that really at the behest of countries that are their neighbors.”
Trump’s comments came shortly after his conversation with Qatar’s Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheik Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani.
Eurasia Group analysts Gregory Brew and Clayton Allen told clients on Monday that “the political window for escalation has closed.” They lowered their odds of further escalation in the Gulf region to 30% from 60%.
The analysts said the revision was “based on evidence of increasing political constraints on Trump following last week’s midterm elections and the mounting opposition from inside the administration and the Republicans” to another round of all-out hostilities.
Plummeting oil prices have pushed pump prices lower in recent weeks. According to AAA, the national average for regular gasoline dipped below $4 a gallon.
AAA Gas 
AAA Diesel
This comes just over two weeks before Thanksgiving, one of the year’s busiest travel periods of the year. AAA has not yet released its forecast for this season, but last year it projected that around 82 million Americans would travel, including 73 million by car.
One of the strongest indicators of easing fuel-market tightness is the narrowing of gasoline and diesel crack spreads.
This potentially paves the way for further relief at the pump as crude oil prices continue to retreat, offering welcome savings for consumers… just a little too late for the Republicans.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE//EU
Russia Flatly Rejects EU Role In Abu Dhabi, While Brussels Insists Will Be At Table
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 05:20 AM
Trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the US are set to begin Tuesday and run through Wednesday, but there’s already a serious disagreement brewing involving representation at the negotiating table.
On Monday European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced in a post on X that the EU would have representatives at the talks, stating that “the EU will be present alongside our partners.“ Her full post is below…
But this has resulted in a nyet – a swift objection – from Moscow within hours of von der Leyen’s statement.
Russia has instead instisted that the trilateral talks exclude officials from the European Union. “As for the presence of Europeans, you know that the Americans have their own channels of communication with the Europeans, as do the Ukrainians,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, rejecting that EU officials will have spots at the negotiating table.
American and Ukrainian negotiators are “in all likelihood constructing their own coordination mechanism” with European representatives, Peskov asserted.
This is also after “A European official told AFP that national security representatives from the EU, NATO, as well as France, Germany and the U.K. plan to be in the UAE capital during the negotiations.”
The Kremlin is certainly also going to balk and some kind of direct NATO representation, and all of this could serve to derail the negotiations before they are even set to begin. Is this more EU sabotage of a US-backed peace process?
Ukrainian media has also highlighted Moscow’s firm rejection of EU representation at the talks:
On 8 November, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Vesti’s Pavel Zarubin that Russia had held no talks with Europeans on a security agreement, unlike the Americans, and claimed Europe still could not choose a negotiator, according to Interfax.
A day later, Peskov told reporters that what will take place in Abu Dhabi “are trilateral talks between Russia and Ukraine mediated by the United States,” and said Europeans were apparently building their own coordination with the Americans and Ukrainians, Interfax reported.
As for Ukraine’s President Zelensky, he has stated on X, “We are doing everything to ensure the trilateral format delivers results.”
Meanwhile, President Trump has said during a Sunday appearance on “60 minutes” that he’s ‘very close’ to overseeing a peace deal in the nearly five-year long war.
“It was the hatred between Zelensky and Putin. If I had been president that war would’ve never started. Zero chance. But it did start. So I inherited that war. I believe we’re very close to making a deal,” Trump explained.
When asked which side he ‘trusts’ more, Trump responded: “I’d rather not say, but I get along with both. I believe that that war is going to end, and it’s going to end soon. And the only reason it’s going to end is because of me. There is tremendous hatred between President Putin and President Zelensky.” However, the US president echoed similar things in the opening days and weeks of his second term in office, but peace has remained elusive.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Ukraine & Russia Quietly Signal A ‘Little Flexibility’ On Territory In Abu Dhabi Talks
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 09:15 AM
The first day of trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, the United States held in Abu Dhabi has ended, with the second full day to take place Wednesday.
The BBC, citing US officials, has said that Ukraine and Russia have privately shown “a little bit of flexibility” over disputed territory.
The US official still cautioned that land disputes will unlikely be resolved without agreement on post-war security arrangements. “They will not solve the Donetsk issue and the territorial issue until they know what the security architecture is going to be after the war,” the official remarked.
President Putin has never backed off his insistence that Ukraine recognize Russian control over Crimea and the four annexed oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
The demand includes that Ukraine remove all its troops from these territories, and even locations that Russian forces have never held. It also includes permanent political reconition.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov again emphased the point this week, on Monday saying: “As for Ukraine’s shape, from a geographical point of view, it is already a different country. The realities on the ground are obvious; hardly anyone can deny them.”
As for President Zelensky, he said on X just before his negotiating team went into the talks: “At the meetings in Abu Dhabi, our team will propose de-escalatory steps, and there must be an understanding of how to arrange a trilateral meeting at the leaders’ level to bring this war to an end fairly and for real.”
Upon the conclusion of the trilateral meeting’s first day, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there is still much work to be done, calling the talks in Abu Dhabi “productive” – while saying the goal is to expand trilateral Ukraine talks, to include the Europeans.
Significantly, the Russian and Ukrainian representatives are finally in the same room:
But Moscow has repeatedly balked at the Europeans getting a seat at the table, pointing out that this defeats the very concept of ‘trilateral’ talks.
Russia has said that it presumes the Ukrainians and Americans will have their own consulations with the EU, and that this doesn’t need to muddle the Abu Dhabi talks.
Ukraine’s chief negotiator Rustem Umerov has said of the Europeans, “We will align our positions and coordinate steps ahead of the next stage of negotiations.”
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called the European presence on the sidelines a PR stunt to give Ukraine media support.
US Special Envoy Jared Kushner:
The question we get asked the most from the Europeans is, are the Russians and this President Putin really ready for peace? From what Steve and I have heard from him, we can say very strongly we believe so, under the right conditions. The Russians ask the same questions of the Ukrainians and the Europeans: are they really genuinely ready for peace?
Meanwhile, President Trump had kicked off the week with some provocative comments suggesting that Ukraine’s territory is indeed likely to change as part of a future agreement with Russia – despite President Zelensky having consistently rejected that Ukraine will cede territory in the east.
“I think we’re going to have it done and I think it’s going to happen, and they’re going to end up with a little bit different shape (for) Ukraine,” Trump told CBS’s 60 Minutes in an interview.
“There’s a very important meeting taking place,” Trump said additionally. “I believe that that war is going to end and it’s going to end soon. And the only reason it’s going to end is because of me.”
6/.GLOBAL ISSUES, COVID ISSUES, VACCINE INJURIES/HEALTH ISSUES
EXTREMELY IMPORTANT!!
“Consider Discontinuing”: FDA Slaps “Eye Stroke” Warning On All GLP-1 Weight-Loss Drugs
Monday, Nov 09, 2026 – 09:20 PM
The FDA is requiring the makers of every GLP-1 drug on the U.S. market, Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro and Zepbound among them, to warn of a potential increased risk of an “eye stroke” that can cause sudden, permanent vision loss in one eye. The condition is non-arteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy, or NAION.
The agency’s Nov. 9 drug safety communication puts the language in the Warnings and Precautions section of labels for a dozen products, from Byetta, approved in 2005, to Lilly’s newly approved Foundayo. FDA said it “concluded that there is a potential increased risk of rare NAION events in patients taking GLP-1 RAs” and told clinicians to consider discontinuing the drug in patients who develop NAION, unless the benefits clearly outweigh the risk.
FDA’s review of 126 randomized trials covering 134,253 patients found 15 probable NAION events: 10 among patients on GLP-1 drugs, 5 on placebo and none on other glucose-lowering drugs. That works out to 6.4 cases per 100,000 person-years on GLP-1 drugs against 3.8 for comparators. The agency puts the background rate for adults over 50 at 2.3 to 10.2 cases per 100,000 people a year.
A separate FDA Sentinel cohort of type 2 diabetes patients from 2019 to 2024 saw 26 to 32 cases per 100,000 person-years. Compared with SGLT-2 inhibitors, the GLP-1 increase was not statistically significant (hazard ratio 1.19, 95% confidence interval 0.91 to 1.54). Compared with DPP-4 inhibitors, it was: a hazard ratio of 1.43 (1.02 to 2.01).
The agency said published observational studies that it judged methodologically rigorous consistently found higher NAION risk on GLP-1 drugs than on DPP-4 or SGLT-2 inhibitors. Its review of animal data identified no mechanism linking the drugs to the condition, and it called adverse event reports hard to interpret because NAION’s risk factors overlap with conditions common among GLP-1 users. FDA noted limitations in the 2024 semaglutide study by Hathaway and colleagues in JAMA Ophthalmology that prompted the review.
The European Medicines Agency’s safety committee concluded in June 2025, well ahead of FDA, that NAION is a very rare side effect of semaglutide, affecting up to 1 in 10,000 people, and recommended label updates for Ozempic, Rybelsus and Wegovy. That review began in January 2025, after two observational studies suggested higher risk and two others did not.
Eli Lilly, which makes Mounjaro and Zepbound, said FDA’s notice “applies to all medicines with GLP-1 RA activity and does not reference any findings specific to Lilly medicines,” in a statement to the Daily Mail. The company said it is “carefully evaluating the update and will respond to FDA promptly.”
FDA tells patients to watch for sudden, painless vision loss in one eye, often noticed on waking, along with blind spots, tunnel vision, color distortion or blurry central vision. Anyone with those symptoms should contact a health care professional right away, and anyone who has had NAION should discuss with a clinician whether to keep taking the drug. Risk factors include smoking, diabetes, high blood pressure, sleep apnea, anemia and kidney disease, and once NAION strikes one eye, the other is at increased risk.
GLOBAL ISSUES
COVID VACCINE INJURY REPORTS; DR MARK CRISPIN MILLER
RABOBANK/MICHAEL EVERY/OR OR PICTON/GIFFIN OR RABOBANK EXECUTIVE/COMMENTARY ON WORLDLY AFFAIRS
7. OIL AND NATURAL GAS/ENERGY COMMENTARIES
US Gas Dips Below $4, Gas & Diesel Crack Spreads Tumble Ahead Of Thanksgiving
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 08:00 AM
Brent traded around $91 a barrel and WTI around $85 a barrel as traders continued to assess efforts to de-escalate the Iran war and restore Middle East energy flows. The good news is that US gasoline prices have dipped below the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon level, just weeks before one of the year’s busiest travel periods: Thanksgiving.
Let’s begin with overnight diplomatic signaling. President Trump said Monday that further strikes would be unnecessary, though US forces remain “locked and loaded,” adding, “Iran, militarily, is effectively over. We’re just keeping it at the status quo, and we’re doing that really at the behest of countries that are their neighbors.”
Trump’s comments came shortly after his conversation with Qatar’s Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheik Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani.
Eurasia Group analysts Gregory Brew and Clayton Allen told clients on Monday that “the political window for escalation has closed.” They lowered their odds of further escalation in the Gulf region to 30% from 60%.
The analysts said the revision was “based on evidence of increasing political constraints on Trump following last week’s midterm elections and the mounting opposition from inside the administration and the Republicans” to another round of all-out hostilities.
Plummeting oil prices have pushed pump prices lower in recent weeks. According to AAA, the national average for regular gasoline dipped below $4 a gallon.
AAA Gas
AAA Diesel
This comes just over two weeks before Thanksgiving, one of the year’s busiest travel periods of the year. AAA has not yet released its forecast for this season, but last year it projected that around 82 million Americans would travel, including 73 million by car.
One of the strongest indicators of easing fuel-market tightness is the narrowing of gasoline and diesel crack spreads.
This potentially paves the way for further relief at the pump as crude oil prices continue to retreat, offering welcome savings for consumers… just a little too late for the Republicans.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA///USA
U.S./GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING\
OPENING LEVELS OF CURRENCIES// AND CLOSING ASIAN STOCK MARKET AND OPENING EUROPEAN STOCKS:6 AM EST
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1222 DOWN 0.0005
USA/ YEN 158.13 UP 0.144 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.75% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN DEC 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .25% TO 1.75 ..TAKAICHI NEW PM AS YIELDS RISE//JAPAN DEEPLY IN TROUBLE WITH RISING RATES AND A FALLING YEN!! BANK OF JAPAN WILL NO LONGER DO QE. URGES PENSION AND INSUANCE FUNDS TO BUY JAPANESE BONDS//
YEN CARRY TRADERS MURDERED
GBP/USA 1.3427 DOWN 0.0013 OR 13 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4133 UP 0.0014 //CDN DOLLAR DOWN 14 BASIS PTS//
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 2.93 PTS OR 0.08%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 108.09 PTS OR 0.44%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.36%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 108.09 PTS OR 0.44%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.93 PTS OR 0.08%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .36%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 1,520.50 OR 2.76%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: $4074.50
silver:$52.41
USA DOLLAR VS TRY (TURKISH LIRA): 50.23 UP 5 BASIS PTS AND NOW WE SEE THEIR STUPIDITY OF SELLING SOME OF THEIR GOLD AND ALL OF THEIR USA DOLLAR RESERVES. THE COUNTRY IS IN BIG FINANCIAL TROUBLE
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 82.71 ROUBLE// DOWN 0 ROUBLE AND 21 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR BOND YIELD: 5.1182 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
UK 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.5648 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
FRENCH OAT 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.702 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
CDN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.658 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YR BOND YIELD; 3.376 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index early TUESDAY MORNING: 101.78 UP 35 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSES
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 10.00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.738 % UP 4 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND 10 yr YIELD: +2.712% UP 4 FULL POINTS BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
JAPAN 30 YR: 3.917 UP 6 BASIS PTS//
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.868 UP 5 in basis points yield
ITALY 10 YR BOND: 4.359 UP 6 points in basis points yield ./
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.3022 UP 6 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/10:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1174 DOWN 0.0048 OR 48 basis points
USA/Japan: 158.61 UP 0.626 OR YEN IS DOWN 63 BASIS PTS// HIGHLY INFLATIONARY TO JAPAN
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 5.2128 UP 10 BASIS POINTS //
GREAT BRITAIN 30 YR BOND; 5.6393 UP 5 BASIS POINTS.
FRANCE 10 YR: 4.786 UP 8 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR/VS CANADIAN DOLLAR UP 0.0066 BASIS PTS TO 1.4184 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 66 BASIS PTS
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The USA/Yuan CNY 6.6704 ON SHORE ..UP
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE// CNH UP TO 6.6672
TURKISH LIRA: 50.24 UP 8 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 13 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.9920 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.350 UP 11 basis points /10:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.724 UP 19 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 9;00 AM $4054.00
SILVER AT 9;00: $51.90
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest ratesTUESDAY
DAY CLOSING TIME/ 12:00 AM///
London: CLOSED DOWN 13.70 PTS OR 0.24%
GERMAN DAX: CLOSED UP 80.26 PTS OR 0.31%
FRANCE: UP 45.29 OR 0.55%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 193.90 PTS OR 0.98 %
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 375.53 TS OR 0.70%
WTI Oil price 85.55
Brent Oil: 90.39 10;00 EST
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 102.09 OR UP 57 PTS
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 83.16/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 67 100
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.716 UP 6 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.450 UP 7 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM//
Euro vs USA 1.1163 DOWN 0.0059 OR 59 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3345 DOWN 0.0096 OR 96 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 5.2079 UP 7 FULL BASIS PTS//
BRITISH 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.6630 UP 8 IN BASIS PTS.
FRENCH 10 YR BOND: 4.802% UP 7 BASIS PTS
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 2.671 % UP 1 FULL BASIS PTS (DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
JAPANESE 30 YR BOND: 3.858 UP 2 PTS AND STILL VERY DANGEROUS TO THEIR ECONOMY
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 158.80 UP 0.814 OR YEN DOWN 81 BASIS PTS//GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM 160.00/ EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4185 UP 0.0066 PTS// CDN DOLLAR DOWN 66 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 86.35
Brent OIL: 91.93
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 13 BASIS pts to 4.990%
USA 30 yr bond yield: UP 9 PTS to 5.350%
USA 2 YR BOND 4.731 UP 18 PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.717 UP 6 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.456 UP 8 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 102.14 UP 61 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 50.24 UP 6 BASIS PTS GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/IDIOTS SOLD GOLD
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 83.28 DOWN 0 AND 79 /100 roubles //
GOLD $4033.30 3:30 PM)
SILVER: 51.60 3;30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 160.74 POINTS OR 0.31%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 166/83 PTS OR 0.60 %
VOLATILITY INDEX 19.82 DOWN 0.10PTS OR 0.500%
GLD: $ 369.36 DOWN 10.17 PTS OR 2.68%
SLV/ 46.48 PTS DOWN 1.66 OR 3.45%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 267.92 PTS OR 0.74%
END
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS/TRADING
Huang, Hot CPI, & Hawkish FedSpeak Hammer Markets: Bonds Battered, Big-Tech Bruised As Dollar Spikes
WRAP UP
USA DATA RELEASES
CPI
CPI Prints Hotter Than Expected; 50bps Rate-Hike Now On The Table As Fed’s Waller Sparks Hawkish Panic
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 08:35 AM
With today’s CPI print (and its ‘ghost’ YoY data and healthcare plug) on everyone’s mind, hawkish comments from Fed Governor Chris Waller already gave markets a jolt this morning, pushing bond yields off their lows, with the biggest moves at the US short-end.
“If, as I expect, the monthly rate of inflation improves in October, I am leaning toward supporting an increase in our policy rate of 25 basis points,” Waller said in a speech in London.
“But if the October CPI inflation data out later today are similar to the past two monthly readings — with core CPI inflation around 0.3% or even higher — then a stronger policy move may be needed,” he said.
“In that case, I believe a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting.”
The remarks sent the dollar higher, stocks lower, and pushed Dec rate-hike odds to almost certainty (well 100% odds of a 25bp hike, not 50bps)…
And that’s before the CPI print…
Headline Consumer Prices rose 0.4% MoM (vs +0.3% MoM exp and +0.6% MoM prior). With the healthcare plug and YoY data snafu (BBG has backfilled the data via extrapolation), this is HOTTER than expected..
Only 1 of 70 analysts expected hotter than this…
Key drivers:
- Shelter +0.3% (accounted for over 30% of the monthly gain).
- Food +0.5% (at home +0.4%, away from home +0.5%).
- Energy +0.7% (gasoline +1.0% SA after a big September jump).
- Used cars and trucks fell 1.2%.
Food: The index for food rose 0.5% in October after being unchanged in September.
The food at home index increased 0.4% over the month. Four of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased in October, while one index decreased. The index for other food at home increased 0.7% in October, as the index for snacks rose 1.0% . The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index increased 0.5 percent over the month, as the beef index rose 0.9%. The index for fruits and vegetables and the index for dairy and related products each increased 0.6 percent in October.
In contrast, the nonalcoholic beverages index decreased 0.3% in October, after rising 0.9% in September. The index for cereals and bakery products was unchanged over the month. The food away from home index rose 0.5 percent in October. The index for full service meals rose 0.7%, and the index for limited service meals increased 0.4% over the month.
While it should not be a surprise, this is the highest level for consumer prices ever (black line)…
Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM (also HOTTER than expected vs +0.2% MoM exp)
Shelter: The shelter index increased 0.3% over the month after rising 0.4% in September.
The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.3% in October, and the index for rent increased 0.2%. The lodging away from home index rose 0.6% in October after rising 2.0% the previous month.
Energy: The index for energy increased 0.7% in October after rising 5.2% in September.
The gasoline index increased 1.0% over the month, after advancing 9.1% the previous month. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices decreased 0.7 percent in October.) The index for electricity rose 0.9% over the month.
In contrast, the natural gas index decreased 0.8% in October.
Energy is dominating the short-term inflation picture…
But, on the bright side, this appears to be ‘peak energy’ CPI as oil and refined product prices have fallen notably since this print…
After CPI, the market is now pricing in a 14% chance of a 50bps hike in December!!
Stocks are down, bond yields are higher, and the dollar is up.
So, what will Waller do in December?
END
OK ; WHO WILL BUY NOW USA BONDS AND THEY WANT TO RAISE RATES?
Ugly 10Y Auction: Foreign Demand Plummets, Directs Soar, Resulting In Biggest Tail Since February
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 01:25 PM
After a subpar 3Y auction on Monday, today’s 10Y auction – which followed another hot CPI print – was downright ugly.
Let’s start at the top: the high yield of today’s auction was 5.020%, which hit just as yields hit their peak for the day, with the 10Y rising more than 10bps above 5.0% for the first time in weeks. Still, this was a drop from last month’s 5.317% (which was the highest in over 2 decades), but tailed the When Issued 5.010% by 1 basis point, the biggest tail since February. And with the auction pricing north of 5%, the coupon on the auction would be 5%, the highest since 2006. 
The bid to cover was also ugly: sliding to 2.468 from 2.771, this was the lowest coverage since May.
But the internals were even uglier: Indirects plunged from a near record 80.3% in October to just 61.2%, the lowest since October 2023, as foreign buyers staged a bit of a strike.
It meant that someone else would have to step up, and sure enough, Directs soared from 17.1% to 29.0%, the highest since September 2013!
Dealers were left holding 9.77%, the most since May.
Overall, this was an ugly auction…
… easily on of the ugliest of 2026, and all it took was one hot CPI print and two hawks to put bonds back in the driver’s seat, and that’s even ignoring the AI trade being back and once again draining demand for duration after a month of IG issuance that has blown away all records.
And since all key catalysts until the December rate hike are now done (except Friday’s PPI which we don’t expect will be much better), expect even more ugly auctions in the coming weeks.
USA ECONOMIC REPORTS
On The ‘Party Of Victims’
Monday, Nov 09, 2026 – 04:20 PM
Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Clusterfuck Nation,
The Curse It Is Cast
“. . . history and even corruption itself have a way of normalizing the unbearable.”
– Naomi Wolf on Substack
That 60-Minutes interview with the President Sunday night was a doozy: he allowed Ross Douthat (moonlighting from his New York Times column) to over-speak him so audaciously you had to wonder why Mr. Trump even bothered to show up. He barely levered a word in edgewise and looked rather glum in the process. Actually, you were watching an act of political ju-jitsu: the president pretending to take it like a whipped dog, so that his antagonists would think he was offering himself up for slaughter. They’d better think again (but watch, they won’t).
Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed at His Victory Celebration
Also on Sunday, Roger Stone wrote that Stephen Miller, the new chief of staff, was just promoted to “wartime consigliere.” You are a little off, Roger. It’s more like wartime field marshal. The president has gone to war against the treasonous Democratic Party, the Party of Victims. Now they know. And now you know. The positions on both sides have hardened-up. I’m dreaming of. . . a strange Christmas.
Pardon me for going out on a limb here. The Party of Victims has flat-out said it wants to see the president drawn, quartered, beheaded, pissed-on, and stuffed into an unmarked hole in the ground. Plus, anyone who ever worked for him or voted for him to be hurled into prison. There’s your casus belli. The curse it is cast.
The Party of Victims has also announced its intentions to shred the Constitution via legal legerdemain for the purpose of making the USA a one-party state and, as such, subservient to governing entities outside the USA. Those entities reside mainly in and around the European Union, including the EU itself, the financial elites that it serves, and an international NGO galaxy of aggrieved “activists.” These are commonly identified as the “Globalists.” Note that this cabal is already under extreme stress on its home territory as the nations of Europe explode in violence. IOW, these Globalists are already losing and turning ever more desperate.
Discount any prattle coming out of the Party of Victims and their ancillaries in the news media about “our democracy.” The phrase is a ruse, aimed at malware they have already installed in your brain, straight out of Rachel Maddow’s pretty mouth. “Our democracy” is a phantom concept to disguise a political apparatus that only works for the Party of Victims. Also note: the Party of Victims wants to make victims of everybody outside their party. “Our democracy” actually means: we get to push you around and do our bidding. . . or else go off and die .
So, the Party of Victims has “won” the midterm election super-bigly. They crushed it. They are supreme. Everybody and his uncle voted for them overwhelmingly, in record numbers so stupefying they seem. . . a little supernatural. Yes, like they got an assist from somewhere, from someone – and probably not from the better angels of our nature , if you know what I mean. Somehow an extra 20-million ballots were cast this midterm over the previous midterm in 2022. But they were strangely distributed.
In the Texas gubernatorial, for instance, almost two million new voters showed up this year above the total voters in 2022 – 9.9-million over 8.1 million. Nationwide, Republican votes were nearly the same in 2026 as 2022, but those 20-million new votes went strictly to the Party of Victims. Gol-lee! Where did they come from? I think we’re going to find out. Of course, to find out, you have to first inquire. Why would you inquire if the election was one hunnert percent above-board, fair-and-square? How dare you! That would be election denialisim, spurious, illegitimate, . . . tyrannical. . . verboten !
That is Party of Victims’ well-advertised “red line,” right there, the thing that triggers their thing, which is activist activism going active in the streets, protest marches, shrieking nose-rings, froggie costumes, raging inflamed transsexuals, POCs unchained, Boomer grandmas in a lather, all of them maybe busting up some storefronts, setting a few fires, mostly peaceful, you understand, except where they’re not. Chicago is suddenly like Paris was in October. And the Party of Victims double-dares you to do something about it!
The president will do something about it, probably something that entails federalizing the national guard, or failing that, sending in regular army troops. It will probably require him to declare the Insurrection Act (10 U.S.C. §§ 251-255), which overrides the Posse Comitatus Act. No approval from Congress is required.
Anyway, the U.S. has operated under multiple overlapping national emergencies for decades (the oldest still-active one dates to the 1979 Iran hostage crisis). The 2018 Election Interference Emergency order (EO 13848) is one of them. It was renewed by the president in August 2026. Which is to say, the country is already under an emergency, this one pegged to foreign interference in our elections. It mandates an “assessment” of foreign interference by the Director of National Intelligence, and further action by the DOJ. It may not be enough. Effective executive action might require the declaration of a National Security Emergency in the event that substantial evidence of election fraud is discovered.
The “Our Democracy” NGOs scheming in the background of the midterm election want the Party of Victims to go medieval on the president. This is where their plan kicks in to nullify the president and turn over his executive powers to a panel of governors (Newsom, Pritzker, Hochul, etc.), who will then supposedly preside over a “restructuring” of the basic charter of the USA. Their chatter about this was recorded and distributed across the internet the past month, along with their written memos to the same effect. It’s all out there. In short, this actually is an insurrection, and Mr. Trump will oblige himself to stop it, just as Abraham Lincoln had to oblige himself to put down the southern secession. And for the same reason, to save the Union.
You might have noticed that there is also a lot of background chatter on the web about “stocking up” on food and supplies. . . about possible interruptions of the internet, perhaps days or even weeks . . . about threats to the electric grid. Of course, it’s alarming. It implies rather extreme and severe circumstances. But do you really know what might happen? This is serious. Pay attention. Maintain situational awareness. This could be a very strange Christmas indeed.
We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.
END
ANTHROPIC
Anthropic Launches $100 Billion IPO Worth $1.4 Trillion… Or $1.0 Trillion, Depending On Who’s Counting
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 09:25 AM
Well, we finally have a number. Two of them, actually.
After five weeks in which the “fair value” of the biggest IPO ever slid from $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion and then to $1.2 trillion, Anthropic this morning filed an amended S-1 and kicked off its roadshow: 825 million shares at $70 to $78 each, ticker ANT, pricing next Wednesday night and trading on Thursday, Nov. 19. At the top of the range that is a $64.4 billion IPO, and with a concurrent $26 billion private placement from the company’s biggest suppliers AMD, Broadcom, Google, Micron, Microsoft, Nvidia and Taiwan Semi (yes, more circular financings, don’t ask), the total comes to $90.4 billion, more than SpaceX’s $86.2 billion even after Elon’s greenshoe. Throw in the Anthropic greenshoe, which will certainly be exercised, and the total capital raise will be north of $100 billion.
And the valuation? Depending on which headline you read this morning, the Claude maker is seeking either $1.4 trillion or about $1.0 trillion. Both are right, which probably tells you all you need to know about how the AI trade counts things. Either way, it is 30% to 50% below the $2 trillion being whispered in early October:
The Deal: $100 Billion, If You Count Everything (And After One Overnight Trim)
First, the terms, as recapped by Goldman, which is lead-left on the deal alongside Morgan Stanley and 20 other banks (when there is this much in fees, nobody stays home):
Anthropic itself is selling 801.4 million new shares, or 97% of the deal. The other 3%, some 23.6 million shares, comes from selling holders, and here the filing gets interesting: according to Bloomberg, each of the seven co-founders, CEO Dario Amodei included, is selling 3.38 million shares. Seven times 3.38 million is 23.66 million, which means the entire secondary tranche is the founders, cashing out about $264 million apiece at $78. That’s a rounding error next to stakes of roughly 1.4% each (worth about $14 billion at the top of the range on our math), but it is still a quarter-billion-dollar founder payday on day one.
Add the 123.75 million share greenshoe (another $9.7 billion, all primary) and the placement, and the grand total rounds to $100 billion. Which just happens to be the number the bankers were targeting all along.
It almost looked different. Late on Monday, Reuters reported that a draft circulated to banks showed about 867 million shares at $70 to $80, or up to $69.3 billion, only for the company to pull it back within hours:
The version that reached the SEC has 42 million fewer shares and a top end that is $2 lower. In other words, the deal shrank by roughly $5 billion between dinner and breakfast. Maybe a typo, maybe one last haircut. In this tape, we know which way we lean.
Which Trillion?
Now for the confusion. Reuters and Bloomberg both put Anthropic’s market value at about $1 trillion at $78, and both also say it is seeking $1.4 trillion. CNBC went with $1.405 trillion. So which is it?
We went through the share counts in the filing, and here is the bridge:
Start with the 11.93 billion shares that exist today (after the preferred stock and part of Amazon’s convertible notes turn into common). Add the 801 million new IPO shares and the roughly 333 million going to the placement buyers, and you get 13.07 billion shares outstanding. At $78, that’s $1.02 trillion. This is the actual market cap, the number an index provider would use.
To get to $1.4 trillion you have to add stock that isn’t trading yet:
- 1.77 billion employee options with an average strike of $2.91 (no, that’s not a typo, and yes, they are 96% in the money): +$138 billion
- 1.07 billion unvested RSUs: +$84 billion
- 29 million shares issued since Sept. 30 for acquisitions and the donation-matching program: +$2 billion
- and 2.05 billion shares reserved for future grants under the 2026 equity plan and the employee purchase plan: +$160 billion
That last one deserves a second look. Some $160 billion of the “$1.4 trillion valuation” is stock that hasn’t been granted to anyone yet. Strip it out and the fully diluted figure is about $1.24 trillion. (And if you want to go the other way, the greenshoe and a 934 million share donation-matching reserve sit outside the $1.4 trillion and would add another $80 billion or so.)
The same math across the whole range:
| $70 (low) | $74 (mid) | $78 (high) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shares outstanding only | $917BN | $968BN | $1.02TN |
| Fully diluted | $1.26TN | $1.33TN | $1.40TN |
Two things stand out. On shares outstanding, the midpoint works out to $968 billion, or all of $3 billion above the $965 billion post-money of May’s Series H (assuming that round was quoted on the same basis, which of course nobody ever specifies). And on a fully diluted basis the filed range of $1.26 to $1.40 trillion lands squarely inside the $1.25-$1.50 trillion bracket that Polymarket had made its favorite by last Friday. As usual, the prediction market got there before the prospectus did.
Vendor Financing, IPO Edition
Then there is the $26 billion private placement, which goes off at the IPO price. The buyers, per the filing (share counts assume the $74 midpoint):
| Investor | Amount | What it sells Anthropic |
|---|---|---|
| $10.0BN | Cloud, TPUs | |
| Nvidia | $10.0BN | GPUs |
| AMD | $2.5BN | GPUs |
| Broadcom | $1.0BN | Custom chips |
| Micron | $1.0BN | Memory |
| Microsoft | $1.0BN | Cloud |
| TSMC | $0.5BN | Makes the chips for all of the above |
| Total | $26.0BN |
Regular readers, who have followed our coverage of AI circularity since we first called AI a debt bubble last October, will notice that every single cornerstone investor is also a supplier. The money goes from Nvidia to Anthropic as equity and comes back to Nvidia as a purchase order, and the same goes for the other six. Nothing says “arm’s-length price discovery” like your seven biggest vendors setting the floor under your IPO.
It gets better. According to the filing, Google’s $10 billion goes toward funding obligations it had already committed to under an earlier 2026 agreement. So, well, the genuinely new money in the placement is probably closer to $16 billion. And one name is missing altogether: Amazon, whose notes convert only up to its ownership cap.
$81 Billion Of Run Rate, $901 Billion Of Bills
The pitch to public investors rests on one number: a revenue run rate of $81 billion as of Oct. 31, up $10 billion in a single month. That is the reacceleration that was missing when we looked at the investor day numbers. At the top of the range, buyers are paying about 17x that run rate fully diluted, or 13x on shares outstanding. At $2 trillion it would have been 25x.
The rest of the filing is less flattering:
- Q3 revenue rose 47% sequentially to $16.96 billion. The quarter before, it rose 144%.
- Operating income flipped from a $974 million profit in Q2 to a $567 million loss in Q3, as operating expenses hit $17.5 billion.
- Price cuts and contractual discounts took about $600 million out of Q3 revenue growth, and that was before Monday’s 20% cheaper Fable.
- Commitments, mostly for compute and chips, climbed to nearly $901 billion, of which about $71 billion comes due in the 12 months through September 2027.
Put differently, the entire $90 billion raise, the biggest in history, covers about 15 months of the bills already signed, and one-tenth of the total. A good chunk of it will end up with the same seven companies in the table above.
The prospectus itself speaks of a mission to “bring forth an age of miracles,” while warning of existential risks to humanity, and the risk factors don’t hold back either.
Our models have in the past behaved, and may in the future behave, in unintended, misaligned, or autonomous ways, including by taking harmful actions that no user or third party directed, which could adversely affect our reputation and brand, business, financial condition, and results of operations.
An age of miracles, existential risk and a 15% greenshoe. Only in 2026.
Nine Days To Find Out What AI Is Worth
So will it clear? CNBC, citing sources, says the book is already covered across the range, which would be impressive for a deal that looked like it might be delayed as recently as Friday (Goldman’s own term sheet helpfully reminds clients that a covered book is no assurance a deal gets fully distributed). The crypto crowd is even more enthusiastic: Hyperliquid’s pre-IPO Anthropic contract, which had sunk from $1.9 trillion to about $1.5 trillion implied after the midterms, dipped to $1.55 trillion on the filing before ripping back to around $1.7 trillion.
That is some 20% above the top of the filed fully diluted range, so either the perp traders are already pricing the first-day pop, or they are counting shares differently than everyone else. Probably both.
The backdrop hasn’t improved since Thursday, when the Nasdaq 100 suffered its worst day since Covid on fears that the Democratic sweep will freeze as much as 45% of planned data center capacity. OpenAI, which is raising at $1.25 trillion and has pushed its own listing to 2027, will be watching every tick.
H.C. Wainwright’s Mike Colonnese summed up the stakes for everyone else in the AI complex (before today’s official reveal):
Anthropic’s potential IPO valuation comes under pressure amid broader AI equity selloff, though underlying demand remains strong. Prospective investors in Anthropic’s upcoming IPO are reportedly discussing a valuation of $1.2T- $1.3T, down from the previously contemplated $1.4T-$1.5T range, following Thursday’s sharp selloff in AI-linked equities (Nasdaq-100 -6.4%, NVDA -9.2%).
Importantly, Anthropic’s annualized revenue run rate reportedly exceeded $80B in October, suggesting the recent valuation reset reflects broader market sentiment and concerns around AI investment returns rather than a clear deterioration in underlying demand.
In our view, a successful IPO would provide an important valuation benchmark for the AI sector and could serve as a positive catalyst for AI infrastructure equities, although near-term market volatility may complicate the timing and pricing of the offering.
We agree it’s a benchmark. We are less sure it’s the one the bulls want. A company that grew its run rate by $10 billion in a month just had to take 30% off its price tag, trim the deal overnight and line up its own suppliers as anchor buyers to get to the starting line. If that is what it takes to sell the best asset in AI, the more interesting question is what everything else is worth.
We’ll find out on Nov. 19.
END
BINANCE/CYRYPTO WALLETS
Binance Warns iOS Flaw Could Let Malicious Apps Steal Crypto Wallet Keys
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 09:40 AM
Authored by Zoltan Vardai via Cointelegraph,
Cryptocurrency exchange Binance warned Tuesday that an iOS flaw could expose crypto wallet recovery phrases and private keys if a user runs a malicious app on an affected iPhone.
Binance listed iOS 26.7.1, 27.0.1 and 27.2 among the affected versions that could allow malicious apps to read local files from other apps, putting seed phrases, private keys and login credentials “at risk across the entire ecosystem.” Binance added that this was “an iOS-level issue, not unique to Binance.”
Binance urged users to delete any apps installed from untrusted sources, update iOS and all apps to the latest official versions, and transfer funds to new wallets created on clean devices if they suspect a breach already occurred.
Blockchain security firm SlowMist flagged the issue earlier on Tuesday, saying a malicious app could read recovery phrases if a wallet stores them unencrypted on the device.
An iOS security researcher who goes by forcequitOS publicly disclosed the flaw on Sunday and credited another researcher who goes by 0xjohnny.
Apple released iOS 27.2.1 and 26.7.3 on Monday, but it remains unclear whether either update fixes the flaw. Cointelegraph contacted Apple about the vulnerability, but had not received a response by publication.
A spokesperson for Binance told Cointelegraph that the “underlying file-access risk may apply across the iOS ecosystem” but said it identified no confirmed cases where attackers used this bug to access cryptocurrency wallets or steal funds.
END
NUCLEAR ENERGY
In Major Win For Nuclear Energy, Nearly Half Of Senate Democrats Join GOP To Advance Permitting Overall
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 09:05 AM
The Senate voted 73-25 on Monday evening to invoke cloture and open debate on the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (BAAJA), the sweeping permitting overhaul written by Republicans Shelley Moore Capito and Mike Lee with Democrats Martin Heinrich and Sheldon Whitehouse.
Supporters were hoping for 15 to 20 Democrats, good for around 70 votes, and TD Cowen had cut its odds of success to about 25% from 40%.
Instead, 51 Republicans, 21 Democrats and one independent voted yes. That’s 22 of the 47 senators who caucus with Democrats, nearly half, backing a bill Trump has endorsed.
Piper Sandler’s policy team boils the nearly 500-page bill down to four parts: permit deadlines and limits on yanking permits, a narrower NEPA, more FERC power over transmission lines and data center rules:
- Including a limit of no more than 2 years for federal decisions on environmental approvals and restraints on agencies’ abilities to withdraw permits once granted.
- Amending the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) by reducing the scope of its applicability, i.e. who can sue and on what grounds, and shortening the litigation window.
- Accelerating the buildout of transmission lines by enhancing FERC’s backstop authority, which gives the federal government more authority to approve major lines and helps projects move through the permitting process much faster.
- On data centers, the bill is a step up from the Ratepayer Protection Act in that it forces more energy behind the meter and establishes rules to ensure data centers are responsible for energy costs until all incremental costs are fully recovered (even after contract terminations).
Shutting the courthouse door
One of the most important changes involves stripping environmental activist groups of their favorite weapon.
Today, most NEPA challenges have six years to be filed. BAAJA cuts that to 150 days, and only people who commented during the review and can show direct harm get standing.
Even a winning NEPA challenge gets a remand “without vacatur or issuance of an injunction,” per the Bipartisan Policy Center, so the project keeps moving while the agency fixes its paperwork.
Sue-and-delay activists don’t need to win in court, and they often know they won’t. They just need to tie a project up until financing costs pile up and investors walk away. A 150-day window with no injunctions takes that weapon away.
Data centers get the bill, again
Data centers already agreed to this in an informal way with the Ratepayer Protection Pledge pushed by Trump.
The BAAJA bill pushes for harder requirements to actually enforce it, considering some recent pushback data center operators have exhibited with actually paying for the associated grid upgrades.
The September text made data centers and crypto miners drawing 20 MW or more pay the full cost of the generation, storage, transmission and distribution built to serve them. The weekend rewrite “expands ratepayer protections to data centers of all sizes,” per BPC.
They’d also pay for the existing grid on top of new upgrades, a “double tap” that FERC’s 1994 pricing policy doesn’t allow, and stay on the hook even if they exit a contract early.
Behind the meter until the grid catches up
Piper’s read is that the bill “forces more energy behind the meter,” and states could even require data centers to bring their own generation.
Pay twice for a grid that can’t connect you for years, or build your own power plant?
Goldman already sees behind-the-meter supplying 25% of all data centers by 2030. The median power project built last year waited more than five years from interconnection request to operation, per Lawrence Berkeley National Lab.
As we reported in March, PJM said the Three Mile Island restart might not get full deliverability until 2031, at a plant that fed the same grid until 2019.
Fully connecting a large data center “can take 5 to 10 years,” a16z’s Ryan McEntush wrote last month, but “every site I’m aware of intends to connect to the grid as soon as it can.”
Until grid owners and operators can bolt on new plants and big loads in under five years, behind-the-meter will be the default for anyone who can afford it.
Four House nuclear bills along for the ride
The weekend rewrite also added a nuclear title folding in four of the six bills that cleared House Energy and Commerce in September without a single “no” vote, per a summary from Heinrich’s office.
They scrap the mandatory hearing on uncontested reactor and enrichment licenses, let enrichment plants start building before getting an NRC license, raise senior NRC pay and make DOE announce nuclear facility actions.
Fuel recycling (the REFUEL Act) and an NRC advisory committee bill didn’t make it.
The House didn’t wait. On Monday night it passed the REFUEL Act 397-2 and the enrichment bill 394-3. As we wrote earlier, nuclear is the one energy source Washington still agrees on.
What still has to happen
The final Senate vote likely slips to next week, after the Veterans Day break. Amendments come first, including one to strip the historic preservation changes that Nevada’s Catherine Cortez Masto says must go before she backs final passage.
Then it goes to the still-Republican House, which has until the new Congress is seated on Jan. 3. Hakeem Jeffries, the likely next Speaker, says it’s “still under review.”
Piper’s Oct. 28 note gave the bill 50/50 odds of being signed this year, above the roughly 40% in betting markets, because its Democratic negotiators want it done in the lame duck.
The big risks are Trump meddling with offshore wind, House Republicans lacking ownership, Democrats renegotiating after a strong midterm, and a calendar jammed by the Dec. 11 funding deadline and an Iran war supplemental.
Two are already flashing. Hours after the White House endorsed the bill, Trump said he won’t approve wind turbines even if it becomes law, adding, “The bill hasn’t been fully negotiated.” And Democrats got their sweep.
Monday’s vote says nearly half of Senate Democrats would rather take the win now.
END
NVIDIA/HUANG
Why Nvidia’s Nightmare May Be Just Beginning
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 10:40 AM
Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance
Just to put a bow on the Jensen Huang saga, before this story broke in a big way, I wrote that investors should be preparing for more bad news across the AI trade. I still believe that’s the case, and arguably more so now than I did a few days ago.
Just hours after I raised the question of whether Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang could be forced to resign…a possibility that virtually nobody seemed to be discussing at the time…Huang publicly admitted to an extramarital affair with Alice Huang, a Chinese businesswoman now at the center of allegations involving Chinese intelligence and Nvidia’s chip sales.
Over the last several days, prediction markets have started taking the possibility of Huang’s departure more seriously, with the implied odds of his resignation by March of 2027 move to about 15%. And as I wrote on Sunday:
And lest we forget…I’m getting ahead of myself here, but that’s what I do….there’s also the uncomfortable reality that major executive departures can sometimes bring previously concealed problems into the open.
New leadership, new scrutiny, and changing incentives have a way of revealing things that were previously swept under the rug.
Well, we haven’t even gotten to the executive departure yet, and the questions are already getting considerably more uncomfortable.
Because this morning The Information reported that Huang’s affair with Alice Huang allegedly helped facilitate at least $7.5 billion in Nvidia chip shipments to Chinese firms.
According to the report, Alice Huang, along with her husband and sister, built a network of companies across China and Singapore to acquire Nvidia chips.
At the center of that network was Shanghai Century Litong, a Chinese company founded in June 2023 that reportedly secured preferred cloud partner status with Nvidia just four months later, giving it priority access to chips.
When U.S. export restrictions complicated orders, Alice Huang allegedly used her connections to Nvidia and its distributors to secure supplies, helping move approximately 240,000 H100, H200 and A100 chips into China.
That’s not a rounding error. And it’s certainly not just a story about a CEO’s personal life anymore, if you ask me…
To be clear, these are allegations reported by The Information. They have not been established by a court or regulatory finding, and they do not by themselves prove that Nvidia or Huang knowingly violated export controls. But if even a meaningful portion of these allegations is substantiated, investors might have a much bigger problem on their hands than they did 48 hours ago.
Because the obvious questions now concern Nvidia’s China business, its export-control compliance, the integrity of its customer relationships, and potentially the reliability of management’s prior representations to shareholders.
For years, Nvidia has maintained that U.S. export restrictions effectively eliminated its China compute business. Yet we’re now looking at allegations that billions of dollars of Nvidia hardware continued reaching Chinese customers through intermediary networks, allegedly aided by someone with a personal relationship with the company’s CEO.
How much of Nvidia’s reported revenue was ultimately dependent on Chinese demand? How much was flowing through third-party intermediaries? How thoroughly did the company scrutinize those customers? And what, exactly, did management know?
Those are questions investors should want answered before assuming this controversy is contained.
And remember, as I noted yesterday, short seller Culper Research was raising related concerns back in May, alleging that more than 20% of Nvidia’s fiscal 2026 compute revenue remained driven by Chinese demand through Southeast Asian intermediaries and illegal GPU diversion. Culper also questioned Nvidia’s customer due diligence, alleged hidden Chinese financing behind major chip purchasers, and warned that China’s push toward domestic semiconductors could leave a substantial hole in Nvidia’s forward revenue expectations.
Source: Culper Research report, May 13, 2026
None of that has been conclusively established, but today’s reporting makes those allegations considerably more relevant.
And here’s where I stand now: I think the likely outcome at this point is that Jensen Huang resigns, at a minimum.
That’s my assessment, not a confirmed development. Nvidia’s board has expressed confidence in Huang, and an independent investigation is underway.
But I have a hard time seeing how this story simply disappears, particularly if additional reporting begins to connect the personal relationship to commercial decisions involving restricted chips.
More importantly, I’m increasingly concerned about what broader scrutiny could reveal about Nvidia’s books.
That doesn’t mean I’m alleging accounting fraud or that Nvidia’s financial statements are false. It means I think investors need to start asking whether the company’s reported geographic exposure, underlying end-customer demand and revenue sustainability are as straightforward as management has suggested.
As ZeroHedge asked at one point yesterday, if Huang was concealing the affair, what else might he have been concealing?
Today’s report is a fair reason to scrutinize management’s credibility more closely, especially when the questions involve billions of dollars in potentially restricted hardware.
And there’s other key questions that are starting to make their rounds:
- Why Megaspeed? Nvidia already had a massive backlog of orders. Why did Jensen Huang insist on selling chips to a controversial Singaporean customer when he could have sold them just as profitably elsewhere?
- Nvidia’s intervention: The New York Times reports that Nvidia intervened with the Commerce Department before its investigation into Megaspeed was transferred to the Justice Department, raising questions about what the company was trying to accomplish.
- Huang’s evasiveness on China: Critics are resurfacing Huang’s April 2026 interview with Dwarkesh Patel (starts around 57:30), arguing that he repeatedly dodged questions about the national security risks of selling advanced AI chips to China.
- No Taiwan contingency plan? Stephen Witt’s The Thinking Machine reports that Huang discouraged planning for a Chinese blockade or invasion of Taiwan, despite Nvidia’s extraordinary dependence on TSMC.
This list of questions will continue to grow as more reporting comes out. And every journalist in the world is looking at this story now, working whatever leads they can.
Huang during April 2026 interview with Dwarkesh Patel
There’s a larger market context here that I don’t think should be ignored. Six months ago, perhaps this controversy would have landed differently. Nvidia was still riding extraordinary enthusiasm surrounding AI infrastructure spending, and investors seemed willing to look past almost any risk as long as the growth numbers kept coming.
Today, the backdrop feels very different. The market appears increasingly skeptical of the AI trade, questioning the sustainability of enormous capital expenditures, the returns on AI investment and the valuations attached to companies at the center of the boom. Democrats have wrested control of congress away from the GOP and are actively looking for consequential situations just like this one to investigate.
Now the company sitting at the very nerve center of the AI trade is facing a potentially serious leadership crisis, allegations concerning billions in China-linked chip shipments, and growing questions about the transparency of its business.
This isn’t financial advice, but personally, I would not be buying Nvidia here until a considerable amount of this smoke clears.
Maybe the investigation ultimately finds that the company’s controls held up, that management’s financial disclosures were appropriate and that Huang’s personal misconduct had no bearing on Nvidia’s commercial activities.
But I don’t see a compelling reason to assume that outcome today, particularly when new allegations seem to be emerging before investors have had time to digest the last ones.
My concern is that there’s still way more beneath the surface. And with sentiment toward AI already looking increasingly fragile, I think the downside risk from additional revelations could be considerably greater than investors appreciate.
I hope it’s not the case because of how consequential Nvidia is to the global economy at this point, but I’d be lying if I said that in my 15+ years in markets….with more than a decade digging to try an uncover dirt on public companies working for short sellers…I did tend to notice that situations like these seem to wind up getting worse before they get better.
In other words, the Nvidia story may have started with Jensen Huang’s affair. I’m not convinced that’s where it ends.
END
House GOP Threatens Jensen Huang With Subpoena Over Alleged Chinese Spy Affair; Rubio Warned Trump
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 09:55 AM
Update (1450ET): House Foreign Affairs Chairman Brian Mast (R-FL) is prepared to subpoena Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang if he doesn’t respond by Wednesday to a request from House Republicans for a closed-door briefing on his relationship with an alleged Chinese spy, Mast told ABC News on Tuesday.
As we previously noted, Mast, Rep. John Moolenaar (R-MI) and Rep. Rick Crawford (R-AR), who chair the Foreign Affairs, China Select and Intelligence committees, asked Huang last week to brief all three panels on Nov. 18 – the day after Nvidia reports third-quarter earnings – and gave him until Nov. 11 to accept or propose another date.
Separately, the New York Times reported that Secretary of State Marco Rubio briefed Trump on the intelligence about Huang aboard Air Force One in May, shortly before Huang joined the presidential trip to Beijing. That contradicts what Trump told reporters Monday when asked whether he knew about the relationship at the time: “No, I didn’t hear about it then.” The White House disputed the Times report on background without elaborating.
Trump, who returns to China next week, said Monday that Huang won’t be making that trip.
* * *
President Trump said Monday that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told him he had no idea the woman he had a relationship with was a Chinese spy, and that Huang should not worry about the FBI. “I asked him that question: ‘Did you have any idea that she was a spy?'” Trump told reporters at a surprise White House briefing. “He said, ‘I had no idea that she was a spy.’ And I really believe him.”
“I know the FBI is looking into it in terms of something else, and I think that he’ll be in good shape,” Trump said.
He added that he spoke to Huang Monday “just to see if he’s feeling alright” and called him “an honorable man.”
The FBI’s work does not appear to be a probe of Huang’s affair. The Justice Department is running a criminal investigation into Megaspeed, a Singapore-based company suspected of smuggling Nvidia AI chips into China, led by its National Security Division with the FBI and the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security, a source told NBC News. Alice Huang, a former Megaspeed executive, is believed by U.S. intelligence officials to be a Chinese spy; she is not related to Jensen Huang. The Justice Department declined to comment.
All The Way To The Top?
According to Bloomberg, Nvidia’s general counsel intervened in a US government probe of smuggling by Megaspeed – raising questions over whether the Trump administration was involved in the alleged spy’s detention. As we reported, the feds’ Megaspeed probe was derailed after Nvidia came knocking.
In late summer 2025, Nvidia’s Tim Teter called Commerce Under Secretary Jeffrey Kessler, who oversees US chip export curbs, to ask about the Megaspeed investigation, according to people familiar with the matter.
Specifically, Teter wanted to know whether Kessler’s Bureau of Industry and Security was involved in the Singapore government’s recent detention of Alice Huang, a Megaspeed executive, according to the people.
Singapore police had brought Alice in for questioning and restricted her from leaving the country. BIS was not involved in that action, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity owing to the sensitivity of the matter.
It’s unclear whether Teter made any specific requests of Kessler related to his agency’s investigation into Megaspeed, which was separate from Singapore’s. But in the weeks that followed, BIS staff were muzzled in their ability to look into the company, including a mandate that they route all requests of Nvidia through Kessler or seek his approval for outreach – a highly unusual step that remains unique to the chipmaker, the people said. -Bloomberg
The FBI’s probe comes amid a broader “Singapore washing” trend in which Chinese companies set up shop in Singapore to bypass US restrictions and provide access to global markets and technology – a practice which has spread across multiple industries, including technology, biotechnology, and critical minerals, the Epoch Times notes.
“The central questions are whether intellectual property or sensitive information was compromised, whether customer relationships or export approvals are affected, and whether there is a material change in leadership,” Ken Mahoney, president and CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, told the outlet.
The White House implemented strict export controls on the company’s most advanced AI chips to Beijing, forcing Nvidia to produce China-specific chips to comply with U.S. regulations.
Chinese AI companies have increasingly turned to domestic alternatives, including chips developed by Huawei and other local firms.
Huang has been highly critical of U.S. export controls, calling them a “failure.” -Epoch Times
“Four years ago, Nvidia had 95 percent market share in China. Today, it is only 50 percent,” Huang said last year at a press conference in Taipei. “The rest is Chinese technology. They have a lot of local technology they would use if they didn’t have Nvidia.”
As we’ve noted, China is adapting with locally developed chips.
Sex Scandal PR Firm
According to Wired, Huang hired a crisis management firm known for handling sex scandals a year before the Chinese spy scandal erupted. The firm, Heller, has been handling Huang’s ‘behind-the-scenes communication’ for over a year, according to two sources.
Heller’s public relations consultants were initially believed to be hired for matters related to Huang’s personal life, including his family’s philanthropic endeavors, according to people familiar with the arrangement. The firm frequently communicated with Huang and his daughter Madison, a product marketing director at Nvidia who has become an increasingly prominent figure within the company, sources tell WIRED. It’s not clear whether Heller’s early work with the Huang family involved Huang’s affair.
…
Before founding her firm, Risa Heller worked for Jane Harman, then a Democratic congresswoman from California, and later served as Democratic senator Chuck Schumer’s New York City press secretary. Rizzo, Nvidia’s head of public policy communications, also previously worked for Schumer, serving as his deputy communications director.
And what’s this?
Nvidia’s board has opened an independent investigation after reports that Huang “has been the target of a foreign intelligence effort.” In a note to staff, Huang wrote: “I was unfaithful to my wife. My actions hurt her and our children. There is no excuse for what I did. I am deeply sorry.”
Nvidia shares closed down 4.2% Monday, the worst performer in both the Dow and the Nasdaq while the broader market held up.
China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun called the allegations “unsubstantiated. It is nothing but smears against China.” On Capitol Hill, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, expected to become Speaker, asked for “a full briefing,” and Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Jim Banks issued a joint statement calling on Congress to “take decisive action” on oversight of AI-linked companies.
Meanwhile, lawmakers are all over this – and have requested a closed-door briefing over Nvidia’s security protocols as well as Huang’s interactions with the alleged spy.
“We are writing to request that you appear before our committees for a joint, closed-door briefing on Nvidia’s security protocols against foreign adversary espionage and your interactions with a publicly reported People’s Republic of China (PRC) intelligence asset,” reads the chairmen’s letter.
“We need to get to the bottom of what was exchanged with this Chinese intelligence agent,” Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) told the Epoch Times.
Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) told the outlet that to see the CEO of “one of the most important, cutting-edge AI companies clearly in a relationship” with an alleged Chinese agent raises significant national security risks.
Needless to say, Jensen just handed Democrats a box of ammunition following the blue wave.
AI POWER STOCKS
“Could Be First Shoe To Drop”: AI Power Stocks Tumble As SoftBank’s Write-Down Deepens Bubble Fears
Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 – 02:10 PM
GE Vernova and Bloom Energy shares plunged Tuesday after SoftBank Group disclosed a $3.7 billion charge tied to power equipment procurement. We asked whether this write-down, cancellation, or “revised procurement strategy” in the AI spending boom could signal trouble ahead in a note titled “Masa’s $3.7 Billion Bonfire: SoftBank Posts $7 Billion Loss After Torching Deposits On AI Power Gear As Interest Costs Double.”
SoftBank’s disclosure followed Elon Musk’s claim last week on X that Masayoshi Son’s investment group was “defaulting on their turbine orders,” an allegation SoftBank denied.
For GE Vernova, however, the cancellation scare runs into a massive backlog. The company had 122 gigawatts of orders at the end of the third quarter, is targeting at least 130 gigawatts by year-end and is booking projects through 2031.
GE Vernova and Bloom Energy are under pressure as traders price in the risk that SoftBank’s procurement woes could signal a bigger retreat and/or spread … 
UBS industrials and materials sector specialist Allyson Gordon addressed SoftBank woes and the selling pressure on GE Vernova and related stocks in a note:
GE Vernova is under pressure after SoftBank took a $3.7bn write-down on data center equipment, with the market extrapolating that news to potential turbine cancellations.
The counterargument is that GE Vernova is already booking projects through 2031 and had 122GW of backlog as of 3Q, versus a year-end target of at least 130GW, suggesting it could absorb some cancellations. Given current demand, there are also likely plenty of customers willing to take available turbines, potentially at higher prices.
Some client feedback is also questioning how much should be extrapolated from SoftBank specifically. That said, the market is clearly not in a forgiving mood, with concerns that this could be the first shoe to drop and lead to broader contagion.
Importantly, while AI Industrials are under pressure today, several individual names, including Comfort Systems USA, Johnson Controls, and Trane Technologies, are holding in relatively well. As a result, weakness in GE Vernova and Semiconductors (SOX) is not dragging the entire AI complex aggressively lower.
Long before Musk’s comments about SoftBank’s turbine orders and today’s $3.7 billion power equipment charge, we identified some of the first cracks in the “Powering Up America” theme when SoftBank subsidiary SB Energy delayed an IPO targeting a valuation of $50 billion after bankers struggled to attract demand.
In fact, Goldman’s “Power Up America” basket topped out over the summer, along with odds of Democrats winning both chambers of Congress. As of last week, the worst-case scenario unfolded for data centers in a Democratic sweep. The basket is down roughly 25% from its spring and early-summer highs near 265 to about 199. 
Well, the collapse in token prices this summer and the surge in Chinese open-weight models, which have grabbed market share from US frontier models, such as OpenAI, may have also had something to do with it.
Separately, JPMorgan analyst Julian Mitchell said the write-downs could weigh on sentiment across energy equipment suppliers exposed to AI spending. GE Vernova’s 2031 backlog may allow it to redirect equipment to other buyers if customers delay or cancel orders. Still, cancellations raise serious questions about the spending commitments underpinning the AI boom.
KING NEWS
| The King Report November 10, 2026 Issue 7866 | Independent View of the News |
| The S&P 500 opened +45.38 points (0.62%) on trader buying (Monday Rally and technical rebound) and bargain hunting by large funds. A buying panic developed; the S&P ran to 7514.52 (+1.87%) at 10:20 ET. The index kept inching higher until the rally accelerated at 10:48 ET. Of course, trading sardines (AI bubble stocks and Fangs) led the rally. Near 10:33 ET: NVDA -3.7%, AMD +9.58%, MU +6.04%, SPCX +6.13%, AMZN +4.2%, TSLA + 5.84%, META +4.75%, GOOGL +3.22%, AAPL +2.38%, AVGO +8.1%, MSFT +2.1%; SOX +5.2% AMZN rallied sharply after JP Morgan named it one of the firm’s top internet picks. After hitting 7651.22 at 10:59 ET, the S&P 500 Index fell to 7515.36 at 11:37 ET on liquidation (by Old World traders) for the 11:30 ET European close. The post-European close move conflated with the Noon Balloon and took the S&P 500 to 7552.46 at 12:34 ET. The index then rolled over into a downward channel. The decline accelerated after 14:15 ET, perhaps on anxiety or inside info on the October CPI Report that will be released today. After falling to 7542.61 at 14:29 ET, the S&P 500 jumped to 7574.15 at 14:42 ET. After a retreat to 7552.71 at 14:54 ET, the S&P 500 Index rallied anew. Social media teemed with reports, for the umpteenth time, that an Iran-US peace deal was nigh. We are NOT making this up! @OilHeadlineNews: Al Arabiya sources say a Qatari-Pakistani proposal has revived serious US-Iran negotiations. Washington has reportedly agreed to allow uranium enrichment in Iran up to 3.67%, with Tehran accepting. Discussions are also being arranged for the return of IAEA inspectors, while a preliminary agreement to reduce Iranian uranium enrichment is considered likely. 2:45 PM · Nov 9, 2026 Obviously, the early buying panic on Monday was the connected few getting inside info on the deal. The S&P 500 Index hits a daily high of 7577.39 at 15:15 ET. It then fell to 7548.48 at 15:59 ET on this: Mohammad Ghaderi @ghaderi62: By fake news, want to help Trump for the decline in oil prices. The Al Jazeera & Al-Hadath reports are also false. There has been no discussion regarding renegotiation or the level of enrichment. Nothing new will occur until Iran’s 7 conditions are met. The S&P 500 Index closed at 7549.94, +2.35% on yet another US-Iran peace deal. @realDonaldTrump: I had an excellent conversation with Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, the Prime Minister of Qatar, wherein much was discussed with respect to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Most importantly, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others, would prefer the status quo, in other words, a continuation of the Greatest Naval Blockade in History, and the new Operation Iron Gate — Therefore, Land and Sea. All have agreed that Iran cannot have a Nuclear Weapon — That is non-negotiable! Should there be any change with respect to developments in the Middle East, the United States of America is “locked and loaded” and ready to go. At this point, however, that seems to be quite unlikely. Israel, and the entire Middle East, are protected from Iranian danger and threats. We are seeing positive momentum toward an end to this Conflict, and will ensure that America’s interests are at all times protected. At the conclusion of this Military Engagement, the American People, and the World, will be far safer and more secure… Nov 09, 2026, 4:29 PM Trump held an impromptu press conference after the NYSE close and reiterated the key point in his above Trump Truth Social post concerning Iran and maintaining the status quo. Trump added, ‘Iran militarily is effectively over’ and ‘military action against Iran does not seem necessary.’ Trump disturbingly emphasized that the US is acceding to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and other nations’ preferences in dealing with Iran (Maintain the status quo). https://x.com/townhallcom/status/2119911424407281722 U.S. Cleared Nvidia Chips to Chinese Firms with Empty Offices and Troubling Ties The Commerce Department has approved dozens of Chinese companies to handle Nvidia’s H200 chips, some of which have ties to firms under sanctions over national security… Earlier this year, the Trump administration approved this Chinese firm to assemble Nvidia’s advanced chips into the computers that create artificial intelligence. President Trump allowed the sale of the chips, called the H200, to China late last year. But before they could be sold, the Commerce Department was required to review the companies involved for national security risks. New Matrix passed that review. Yet recent checks by The New York Times found that, within China, there is little evidence the firm actually exists, raising questions about who in China is behind the company… The sale of chips to New Matrix appears to be part of a pattern that has concerned technology experts inside and outside the government: The Commerce Department is giving clearance to buy and handle Nvidia’s chips to Chinese companies with ties to firms that have been subject to national-security-related trade restrictions… https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/07/business/economy/nvidia-chips-chinese-firms.html?unlocked_article_code=1.O1E.hUve.9wZ2JPqUOkbY Commerce Dept. Chip Inquiry Was Halted After Nvidia Intervention An investigation into Megaspeed, a Singapore company that was buying advanced Nvidia A.I. chips, was transferred to the Justice Department after a top Nvidia executive reached out to Commerce Department officials… Tim Teter, Nvidia’s general counsel, said that Jeff Kessler, a top official at the department, had given Nvidia permission to reach out about the case… The United States began investigating Megaspeed and Ms. Huang in 2024, after the company started importing billions of dollars’ worth of advanced Nvidia A.I. equipment into Malaysia. Megaspeed had been planning and constructing data centers around Southeast Asia to serve Chinese clients, including Alibaba, the Chinese tech giant. While that behavior is legal, U.S. officials were concerned that some of the Nvidia chips the company had bought were illegally routed into China… The Justice Department requested that the Commerce Department pause its work on the investigation, and Commerce complied, one person familiar with the case said… https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/09/business/economy/nvidia-megaspeed-investigation-huang.html Positive aspects of previous session A Manic Monday Rally appeared. S&P 500 +2.35%, DJIA +2.05%, DJTA +3.14%, Nas 100 +3.4%, Nasdaq +2.74%, SOX Index +6.85% SP Industrials +3.78%, Consumer Discretionary +3.05%, Info Tech +2.87%, Materials 2.15%, Comm Services 2.12%, Health Care +1.94%, Real Estate +1.6%, Utes +1.54%, Financials +1.54%, Consumer Staples +-.64%, Energy +0.41% Dec WTI Oil -6.5% low; Jan Brent -7.8%; Dec Diesel -18¢ low; Dec Gasoline -16.1¢ low Negative aspects of previous session USZs were -3/23 at 16: 20 ET despite the huge drop in energy commodity prices. Dec Gold +$72.60 at 16:20 ET Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will the latest ‘US-Iran peace plan is nigh’ rally last much longer? First Hour/Last Hour NYSE Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to day traders]: 7516.52 Previous session (S&P 500 Index) High/Low: 7577.39 (15:15 ET); 7422.24 (9:30 ET) The BLS will NOT publish y/y October CPI or October Core CPI due to the government shutdown in October 2025. @ariel_oseran: Iran’s top security official, Mohsen Rezaei: The war on Iran has already wrecked the U.S. government. Stop manufacturing fake news about imaginary talks. Time to surrender to the seven conditions. 5:38 PM · Nov 9, 2026 Trump: “I spoke to Jensen today. He told me he had no idea that woman was a spy, and I really believe him.” https://x.com/amitisinvesting/status/2119914345173864860 Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang hired a crisis PR firm a year before admitting to affair https://trib.al/YXn6f98 Ex-DJT aide @Bannons_WarRoom: BANNON: Why is Rubio’s memo so highly classified? Why was this never shared with Jensen Huang? Because they believe he’s a spy. He’s an agent of influence for the Chinese Communist Party! Everybody knows he’s playing both sides, but his home team is the CCP. https://x.com/Bannons_WarRoom/status/2119828773835280710 Nvidia’s Jensen Huang: China Is ‘Not Our Enemy,’ US Chip Policy a ‘Mistake’ In an interview filmed on October 14, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang defended engaging with China and criticized US chip restrictions. He has since acknowledged having an affair, and US intelligence officials reportedly suspect the woman was recruited by Beijing to influence him. Nvidia’s board is now investigating, and Huang said he would “cooperate fully.” He spoke with Bloomberg’s Emily Chang for an upcoming episode of The Circuit. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-11-09/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-on-selling-chips-to-china-video Today – After yet another Monday Rally on ‘a US-Iran peace deal is nigh,’ astute traders will try to ascertain if organic buying appears today. October CPI should not have much effect unless it is significantly higher than expected. Be alert for a pump & dump. After Monday’s huge rally, and probably inside trading, wise guys are likely to juice stuff early to suck in patsies and then dump into them. ESZs and NQZs traded moderately higher early on Monday night; but turned negative near 19:45 ET. ESZs +4.75; NQZs +8.25, USZs -6/32, Dec WTI -$0.34, Dec Gas -0.3¢, ¥/$ 158.06 at 20:02 ET Expected Econ Data: Oct CPI 0.3% m/m; Core 0.2% m/m; Oct NFIB Index of Small Biz Optimism 97.7; Dallas Fed Pres Logan 9:35 ET, Fed Gov Bowman 13:30 ET, KC Fed Pres Schmid 13:30 ET This is Treasury Auction Week: $42B of 10s Tuesday, and $25B of 30s on Thursday S&P 500 50-day MA: 7677; 100-day MA: 7620; 200-day MA: 7326 (Close 7549.94 +2.35%) Nasdaq 100 50-day MA: 29,604; 100-day MA: 29,437; 200-day MA: 29,996 (Close 27,907.64, +3.4%) DJIA 50-day MA: 52,065, 100-day MA: 52,410; 200-day MA: 50,677 (Close 52,389.75 +2.15%) (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) Trump, during his “60 Minutes,” infuriated a beaucoup chunk of his base with amnesty insinuations. FT: The US president has offered to work with Democrats on an amnesty deal for migrants in a sign that he could temper his deportation campaign in the wake of Republicans’ midterm rout. https://ft.trib.al/yWOSPmX Trump: I think I got an A+ for closing up the border. I get very high marks for getting the bad ones out. But I get hurt because we also took people that had good jobs, that– that created one violation, or breaking of the law, and that was that they came into the country illegally. Now, there is a large part of the country that think that they should be put out. And there’s a large part of the country that think that they should be allowed to stay if they’re good people working in a landscaping company, or workin’ in a hotel, or doing something, right? And in some cases, paying taxes. And there’s a large group of people who think that they should be allowed to stay… Trump: Yeah. When you go into a hotel and you have a woman that’s worked there as– you know, as a maid, as a cleaner, as a this, as a that, as a waitress, a lotta good things, great jobs, and all of a sudden, they’re being taken outta the country, it’s tough. It’s a tough thing. But there’s a group of people that I would say on the sort of pretty far right that would like everybody taken out… In other words, get the killers out. Get all the– the rough ones out. Get the drug dealers out. But let the people that are here, and in some cases here for ten and 15 years, work a deal for them… https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-2026-post-midterm-elections-interview-60-minutes-transcript/ Ex-DJT supporter @johncardillo: ‘Trump says ICE went too far and suggests amnesty after midterms disaster.’ He’s going to give Dems every single thing they want, hoping they won’t investigate his and his family’s deals. @ReOpenChris: Governor DeSantis SLAMS Trump’s reversal on Mass Deportations and the idea that we should only deport illegal aliens who commit another crime! “This idea that unless you’re an axe murderer you should be able to stay that is not consistent with our laws and it’s also not good policy. You know we have different people that are victimized by illegal aliens every day in this country! Not all of them have criminal records at the time. In fact, probably most of them don’t but under some view it’s like okay yeah you come illegally and then you stay until you commit a really violent crime. That just doesn’t work.” @realDonaldTrump Mar 19, 2013: Amnesty is suicide for Republicans. Not one of those 12 million who broke our laws will vote Republican. Obama is laughing at @GOP Politico’s @SophiaCai99: Sec. (DHS) Mullin told me this morning he is open to a bipartisan immigration deal that includes DACA permanent legal status. But draws red line on amnesty. Mullin told Trump that Dems (ie No Labels) have called him and Trump encouraged him to engage. “The president said, ‘let’s start working with them and then let’s meet at some point.’” @EndWokeness: California national election margin before 𝙫𝙨 after amnesty and mass immigration: 1968: R +3.1; 1972: R +13.5; 1976: R +1.8; 1980: R +16.2; 1984: R +16.2; 1988: R +3.6 1992: D +13.4; 1996: D +12.9; 2000: D +11.8; 2004: D +10.0; 2008: D +24.1; 2012: D +23.1; 2016: D +30.1; 2020: D +29.2; 2024: D +20.1 You can literally spot the tipping point At Monday’s impromptu presser, Trump said he is NOT for amnesty. “My policy hasn’t changed.” https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2119913091165311254 Ex-RFK Jr aide @calleymeans: I want everyone in the White House to know that Susie is executing a systematic strategy to throw President Trump under the bus. Below is Susie’s stenographer sharing her leaks that it was not in fact Susie who was captured by Ballard, but the President. Brian Ballard said in writing he didn’t lobby Susie or White House staff on glyphosate. Since Ballard’s disclosure below said he personally lobbied the White House in the quarter of the EO’s release, he is either lying or throwing President Trump under the bus. Which one is it @BallardFirm?… https://x.com/calleymeans/status/2119809633443250182 @AFpost: Civil Division chief Brett Shumate resigns from the DOJ, with no reason disclosed. Shumate is the fifth senior DOJ official to exit since Republicans lost the midterms, following Harmeet Dhillon, Henry Whitaker, Jason Reding Quiñones, and John Eisenberg. The GOP’s Midterm Annihilation Comes Down to One Factor (GOP Establishment view!) The answer is Donald Trump — specifically, the president’s shameful, erratic, often reckless, always self-absorbed, exhausting, in-your-face-24/7 second-term performance — reminding people nonstop of all the reasons they disliked him the first go-round, but this time without the perception of rising prosperity… Trump 2.0 derailed on “liberation day” — on April 2, 2025, less than three months in — and Trump has become increasingly unpopular ever since. Moreover, where it matters, the tariff problem and the war problem get to the same place, costs… Trump’s secret sauce, the reason he has been able to succeed politically despite his personal unpopularity, has been his uncanny prowess at depicting his opponents as lunatics… The successful Trump’s resonant message was, “You need me because these people are crazy and, unlike your familiar genteel Republicans, I will fight them.”… https://www.nationalreview.com/2026/11/the-gops-midterm-annihilation-comes-down-to-one-factor/ @CNBC: Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., on Monday introduced articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, triggering a vote in the House of Representatives as early as this week… Massie, GOP Reps Mace and Taylor-Greene were among the GOP Reps that Trump jettisoned from the party because they kept pushing for the release of the Epstein File. Republicans who pushed Epstein files release see political careers upended by Trump https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/republicans-pushed-epstein-files-release-see-political-careers-upended-rcna348061 -END- | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
PHILADELPHIA
Philly’s Kristallnacht: Targeting Private Citizens Vs. Israeli Policy
Monday, Nov 09, 2026 – 07:20 PM
Authored by Luis Gonzalez via American Thinker,
A bicycle-led boycott targeting six Jewish-owned restaurants in Philadelphia brought hundreds of counterprotesters into Center City Sunday. The demonstration, organized by Philly Bike On Your Left, drew a substantial police presence, verbal confrontations, at least one reported physical altercation, and an arrest witnessed by NBC10. 
The protest also took place on the eve of the 88th anniversary of Kristallnacht, the Nazi pogrom against Jewish communities on November 9-10, 1938.
According to The Philadelphia Inquirer‘s on-the-ground report, “hundreds turned out Sunday in support of six Center City eateries owned by Jewish restaurateurs,” directly confronting a boycott that had unsettled Philadelphia’s Jewish community.
The six targeted businesses were Mac Mart, K’Far Cafe, Huda, Goldie, Dizengoff, and Schlesinger’s Deli. A flyer circulated by the organizers identified them as “Zionist establishments” and declared: “No business for Zionists! These Zionist Establishments must go! Not in our city!”
The language was not subtle. Neither was the group’s original October 30 invitation, quoted by CNN in its Sunday report:
“Ride around Rittenhouse with us as we show these zionist business owners that we see them for the disgusting humans they are.“
That is the starting point for understanding what happened in Philadelphia.
The organizers describe themselves as an anti-fascist, anti-Zionist social cycling collective. They say the businesses were targeted because of their owners’ support for Israel, not because they are Jewish. They also insist the timing was coincidental.
In a statement posted Saturday, the group said its ride had been “grossly misrepresented” and that it stood against “fascism, antisemitism, islamophobia, and colonialism.” Asked by the Inquirer about Kristallnacht, a representative said, “I can assure you we had no idea when [Kristallnacht] was.”
That denial should be reported. It does not change the words on the flyer or the businesses selected for the campaign.
Kristallnacht was a state-organized pogrom. Nazi mobs attacked Jewish people, destroyed businesses and homes, burned more than 1,400 synagogues, and sent approximately 26,000 Jewish men to concentration camps. Sunday’s demonstration was not remotely equivalent to that violence. But the public identification of Jewish businesses, accompanied by demands that they be driven out, makes the anniversary impossible to ignore.
The distinction between opposing Israeli policy and targeting private citizens should be elementary. Americans have every right to criticize Israel, protest its government, and organize political boycotts. They do not have a right to intimidate their neighbors or demand that private businesses disappear because their owners hold objectionable political views.
Philadelphia’s response was striking. Customers lined up outside the targeted restaurants, with hundreds reportedly waiting at Huda. American and Israeli flags filled the counterprotest. The NBC10 report documented police separating opposing demonstrators, a physical altercation, and at least one arrest. The circumstances surrounding that arrest were not immediately known.
At Huda, owner Yehuda Sichel told the Inquirer that his grandfather survived the Holocaust and witnessed Kristallnacht. Sichel believes he was targeted because he raised money for injured and traumatized Israeli children after the October 7 Hamas attack.
Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker condemned the targeting of businesses because their owners were Jewish. Governor Josh Shapiro called the ride an effort “designed to intimidate and drive Jewish businesses out of our communities.” Senator John Fetterman and Congressman Brendan Boyle also condemned the demonstration.
Philadelphia’s Democratic Socialists of America defended the organizers, accusing public officials of conflating anti-Zionism with antisemitism. The group maintained that Jewish businesses belong in Philadelphia while supporting the activists’ right to challenge what it calls Zionist ideology.
But the argument cannot be settled by changing the labels. The organizers published the names of six local businesses, described their owners as “disgusting humans,” and demanded that their establishments go.
There is a broader political contradiction here. Conservatives have spent years being branded fascists for defending national borders, supporting law enforcement, standing with Israel, or rejecting progressive orthodoxy. The accusation has become a routine way to discredit political opposition.
Yet activists who identify as anti-fascist are now using public shaming, economic pressure, and demands for exclusion against people whose political convictions they reject. That is the authoritarian impulse issue. A free society depends on pluralism: the right of citizens to hold different convictions, operate businesses, and participate in community life without submitting to ideological approval.
The cyclists came to tell six Jewish-owned businesses they did not belong in Philadelphia. Hundreds of residents answered by filling their tables and standing outside their doors. The activists wanted to make those businesses unwelcome. Instead, their neighbors demonstrated what freedom of association and community solidarity look like.
The message was clear. So were the optics.
When self-proclaimed anti-fascists took to their bicycles in Philadelphia to target Jewish-owned businesses, they exposed the ugly face of the movement they claim to represent. This was fascism disguised as political activism, carried out in the name of “the Left.”
And Philadelphia saw it.
We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.
GREG HUNTER….
