GOLD: $1276.60 UP $6.60
Silver: $17.18 UP 48 cents
Closing access prices:
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1283.60 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1269.60
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $14.00(premiums getting larger)
SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1297.34
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1274.50
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$22.84 PREMIUMS GETTING LARGER)
CHINA REJECTS NEW YORK PRICING OF GOLD!!!!
LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1279.25
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1279.00
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1277.05
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1273.30 ??
For comex gold:
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH: 186 NOTICE(S) FOR 18,600 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 709 FOR 70,900 OZ (2.205TONNES)
140 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 567 for 2,835,000 oz
Bitcoin: $6517 bid /$6527 offer up $86.00 (MORNING)
BITCOIN CLOSING;$6581 BID:6601. OFFER UP $146.00
Today gold had a pretty good day rising by $6.60 but it was silver that was star of the show rising by 48 cents or 2.8%. This time around silver rose for no apparent reason. It is obvious that its huge 196,000 short comex contracts are having its effect on our bankers. As I have outlined to you for the past few months, the banks are desperate trying to cover but to no avail. They have en masse decided to run to higher ground where they will regroup and try again. If the silver price runs away from them like the Bitcoin price, our banker friends will implode.
Let us have a look at the data for today
In silver, the total open interest ROSE BY A LARGE SIZED 2419 contracts from 196 ,434 UP TO 198,853 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S TRADING IN WHICH SILVER FELL BY 13 CENTS. THE CROOKS ARE STILL HAVING AN AWFUL TIME TRYING TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SILVER SHORTS SO THEY CONTINUE TO TORMENT.
RESULT: A GOOD SIZED RISE IN OI COMEX WITH THE 13 CENT PRICE LOSS. OUR BANKERS COULD NOT COVER ANY OF THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL.
In ounces, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.993 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 142% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT OCT MONTH/ THEY FILED: 140 NOTICE(S) FOR 700,000 OZ OF SILVER
In gold, the open interest SURPRISINGLY ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 2419 CONTRACTS DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD ($6.15) . The new OI for the gold complex rests at 531,918.
NO EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR THE UPCOMING NOVEMBER CONTRACT MONTH.
Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI DESPITE THE FALL IN PRICE IN GOLD ($6.15). THERE CERTAINLY WAS NO SHORT COVERING BY THE BANKERS WITH THE RAID YESTERDAY
we had: 186 notice(s) filed upon for 18,600 oz of gold.
With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
Strange! with gold up $6.60 today, we had a withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes of gold from inventory at the GLD/
Inventory rests tonight: 849.59 tonnes.
STRANGE: WITH SILVER DOING WELL THESE PAST THREE TRADING DAYS AND ESPECIALLY TODAY WITH A HUGE GAIN OF 48 CENTS, WE HAD NO DEPOSIT GAIN IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.155 MILLION OZ
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE BY A HUGE 2419 contracts from 196,434 UP TO 198,853 (AND now A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE THE FALL IN SILVER PRICE (LOSS OF 13 CENTS). OUR BANKERS WERE AGAIN UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO COVER ANY OF THEIR SILVER SHORTS.
RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 13 CENT LOSS IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING). OUR BANKER FRIENDS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO COVER ANY OF OUR SILVER SHORTS . .NO EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR THE UPCOMING NOVEMBER CONTRACT
2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report
2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)Late TUESDAY night/WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 2.57 points or .08% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 348.52 pts or 1.23% / The Nikkei closed UP 408.47 POINTS OR 1.86/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.49%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.611/Oil UP to 55.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.48 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED IN THE GREEN . ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.611. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED AT VALUE OF THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.6112 //ONSHORE YUAN STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS STRONGER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS VERY HAPPY TODAY.
3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
c) REPORT ON CHINA
i)The ghost collateral that we wrote about in 2014 is finally beginning to haunt traders. The first one to take a huge hit on lack of collateral financing trade is London based E D and F Man Company who is now caught with a phony warehouse receipt from China.
4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
6 .GLOBAL ISSUES
Iceland’s biggest volcano is set to erupt after the area had many earthquakes disturbing the caldera. The huge amount of eruption could could damage to flights over the area
7. OIL ISSUES
Yesterday’s report on the API showed a huge drawdown. Today’s DOE showed little draw down and that disappointed our bulls in oil and gasoline.
8. EMERGING MARKET
Venezuela’s annual rate of inflation is a cool 2875%
( Steve Hanke)
9. PHYSICAL MARKETS
i)Once the crooks are able to use bitcoin futures, you can bet that they will cause crypto prices to crumble
ii)Question; how did the Royal Bank of Canada purchase a gold bar without testing it?
iii)Retail sales of gold has been dismal in the west as bitcoin seems to have replaced gold as a safe haven. However Eastern nations are taking up the slack and buying gold hand over fist
v)Now German Investors are now flocking into gold
vi)Now Iran is preparing its infrastructure to accept Bitcoin adoption
10. USA Stories
iv)The Fed’s balance sheet instead of falling by 10 billion it rose by 5 billion with one day left to report:
v)Trump should like this: USA PMI rises but Mexico’s PMI collapses
vi)Obama proposes repealing the Obamacare individual mandate to pay for the tax cuts. That will anger the democrats and some Republicans as well
vii)The following is a must read as Stockman explains to us the ridiculousness of the charges and conviction on Baby George Papadopulous for lying to the FBI on a date which was totally frivolous. Now you will understand the deep state and how it operates!!
a must read..
ix)Kentucky is in such a bad state of affairs with respect to its public pensions. Now the Kentucky teachers blast authorities who are planning to reform the plan. If they do not reform then the pension plan will go bust
x)I am not buying the strength of the market. Today sales are really lacklustre with General Motors inventory starting to tick upwards
Let us head over to the comex:
The total gold comex open interest SURPRISINGLY ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 3,459 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level of 531,918 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($6.15 FALL IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING). IT SEEMS THAT WE GOT SOME NEWBIE LONGS ENTERING THE ARENA AND WITHOUT A DOUBT WE HAD ZERO SHORT COVERING BY THE BANKERS.
NO EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR NOVEMBER YESTERDAY.
HERE IS A SUMMARY OF EFP’S ISSUED TO LONGS IN EACH OF THE PAST 3 MONTHS:
The amount of EFP’s issued for each of the past 3 months at month’s end;
Result: a GOOD SIZED open interest INCREASE WITH THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($5.30.)
We have now entered the NON active contract month of NOVEMBER.HERE WE HAD A LOSS OF ONLY 338 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 272. We had 523 notices filed upon yesterday so surprisingly we again gained 185 contracts or 18,500 additional oz will stand for delivery in this non active month of November. TO SEE BOTH GOLD AND SILVER RISE IN AMOUNT STANDING (QUEUE JUMPING) IS A GOOD INDICATOR OF PHYSICAL SHORTNESS FOR BOTH OF OUR PRECIOUS METALS.
The very big active December contract month saw it’s OI LOSE 5790 contracts DOWN to 376,939. January saw its first open interest of 14. FEBRUARY saw a gain of 9039 contacts up to 93,780.
We had 186 notice(s) filed upon today for 18,600 oz
VOLUME FOR TODAY (PRELIMINARY) 292,195
CONFIRMED VOLUME YESTERDAY: 271, 486
We had 140 notice(s) filed for 700,000 oz for the OCT. 2017 contract
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz||nil oz|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz||
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz||nil oz|
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz||
|No of oz served (contracts) today||
|No of oz to be served (notices)||
|Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month||
|Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month||NIL oz|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month||xxx oz|
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 140 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 14 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory||nil|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory||
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory||
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory||
|No of oz served today (contracts)||
|No of oz to be served (notices)||
|Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)||567contracts
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month||NIL oz|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month||xx oz|
NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada
will update later tonight
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada
Sprott Inc. to take control of rival gold holder Central Fund of Canada
Posted Oct 2, 2017 8:43 am PDT
Last Updated Oct 2, 2017 at 9:20 am PDT
TORONTO – Sprott Inc. (TSX:SII) says it has struck a deal to take control of rival gold-holding firm Central Fund of Canada Ltd. (TSX:CEF.A) after a protracted takeover effort.
Toronto-based Sprott said Monday it will pay $120 million in cash and stock for Central Fund of Canada Ltd.’s common shares and for the right to administer and manage the fund’s assets.
The deal, which requires approval from Central Fund shareholders, would see its class A shareholders transferred to a new Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust.
Sprott says the deal would add $4.3 billion to its assets under management, which are focused largely on holding physical precious metals on behalf of clients, and 90,000 investors to its client base.
In March, Sprott tried to go through the Court of Queen’s Bench of Alberta to allow Central Fund’s class A shareholders to swap their shares to Sprott after the family that controls Central Fund rebuffed their attempt to make a deal.
Last year Sprott took over Central GoldTrust, a similar fund controlled by the same family, after securing support from more than 96 per cent of shareholder votes cast.
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD
Nov 1/a withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 849.59 tonnes
OCT 31/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 850.77 tonnes
Oct 30/STRANGE WITH GOLD UP THESE PAST TWO TRADING DAYS, THE GLD HAS A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.77 TONES
Oct 27/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.95 TONNES
Oct 26./A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.95 TONNES
Oct 25/NO CHANGE (SO FAR) IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.13 TONNES
Oct 24./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 853.13 tonnes
OCT 23./NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 853.13 TONNES
OCT 20/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 853.13 TONNES
oCT 19/NO CHANGE/853.13 TONNES
Oct 18 /no change in gold inventory at the GLD/ inventory rests at 853.13 tonnes
Oct 17./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 853.13 tonnes
Oct 16/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.32 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.13 TONNES
0CT 13/ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.45 TONNES
Oct 12/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.45 TONNES
Oct 10/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.45 TONNES
Oct 9/ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 4.43 TONNES INTO GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.45 TONNES
Oct 6/A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY INTO THE GLD/TONIGHT IT RESTS AT 854.02 TONNES
Oct 5/A LOSS OF 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.06 TONNES
Oct 4/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.30 TONNES
oCT 3/ A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.30 TONNES
Oct 2/STRANGE/WITH GOLD’S CONTINUAL WHACKING WE GOT A BIG FAT ZERO OZ LEAVING THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.65 TONNES
SEPTEMBER 29/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventor rests at 864.65 tonnes
Sept 28/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.65 TONNES
Sept 27/WOW!! WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25, WE HAD A HUGE 8.57 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/
Sept 26/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 856.08 tonnes
Sept 25./Another big deposit of 3.84 tonnes into GLD/Inventory rests tonight at 856.08 tonnes
Sept 22/with gold up only 1 dollar on the day we had a massive 6.21 tonnes of gold added to the GLD/.this is a good sign that gold will advance nicely this coming week.
Sept 21/no change in gold inventory tonight/inventory rests at 846.03 tonnes
Sept 20/no change in gold inventory tonight/inventory rests at 846.03 tonnes
Now the SLV Inventory
Nov 1/STRANGE! WITH SILVER’S HUGE 48 CENT GAIN WE HAD NO GAIN IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.155 MILLION OZ/
Oct 31/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 319.155 million oz
Oct 30/STRANGE!WITH SILVER UP THESE PAST TWO TRADING DAYS, WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.133 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.155 MILLION OZ/
Oct 27/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.288 MILLION OZ
Oct 26/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.288 MILLION OZ/
Oct 25/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.288 MILLION OZ
Oct 24/no change in inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 320.288 million oz/
oCT 23./STRANGE!!WITH SILVER RISING TODAY WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.039 MILLION OZ/inventory rests at 320.288 million oz/
OCT 20NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.327 MILLION OZ
oCT 19/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 321.327 MILLION OZ
Oct 18 no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rest at 322.271 million oz
Oct 17/ A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 3.494 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.271 MILLION OZ
Oct 16/ NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.765 MILLION OZ
oCT 13/ NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.765 MILLION OZ
Oct 12/THE LAST TWO DAYS WE LOST 1.113 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.765 MILLION OZ
Oct 10/NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.898 MILLION OZ/
Oct 9/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.227 MILLION OZ INTO THE INVENTORY OF THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.898 MILLION OZ
Oct 6/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.671 MILLON OZ
Oct 5/ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 944,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.671 MILLION OZ
OCT 4/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.615 MILLION Z
Oct 3/A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF 143,000 FROM THE SLV FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.615 MILLION OZ
Oct 2/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326,757 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER 29/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 326.757 million oz/
Sept 28/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.757 MILLION OZ/
Sept 27/STRANGE!! SILVER IS HIT FOR 24 CENTS YESTERDAY AND. 9 CENTS TODAY AND YET NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.757 MILLION OZ
Sept 26./no change in silver inventory at the SLV/.inventory rests at 326.757 million oz
Sept 25./ a big deposit of 1.842 million oz into the SLV/inventory rests at 326.757 million oz/
Sept 22/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 324.915 million oz/
Sept 21/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 324.915 million oz
Sept 20/no changes in silver inventory/Inventory remains at 324.915 million oz
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration+ 1.39%
Major gold/silver trading/commentaries for WEDNESDAY
Invest In Gold To Defend Against Bail-ins
– Italy’s Veneto banking meltdown destroyed 200,000 savers and 40,000 businesses
– EU bail-in rules have wiped out billions for savers and and businesses, with more at risk
– Bail-ins are not unique to Italy, all Western savers are at risk of seeing savings disappear
– Counterparty-free, physical gold bullion is best defence against bail-ins
One of Italy’s twenty regions is calling for more autonomy from the state following a nonbonding referendum. Why? Because a government supported ‘rescue package’ caused the lifesavings of 200,000 savers to be wiped out during the implosions of Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca.
Since then the banks have been rescued in one way or another yet the impact of the collapse on individuals and small businesses is only just becoming clear.
As in Spain’s Catalonia the region of Veneto is wealthier than the average Italian region, with its own industries and language yet it has been left with a pile of ash when it comes to its banking sector.
The region is proud to be the home of successful brands such as Benetton, De’Longhi, Geox and Luxottica. But it is the 40,000 small businesses that are in a state of limbo unable to pay workers, find credit or operate on a day-to-day basis.
Sadly the case of Veneto is one of a growing list of regions of banking customers that have been destroyed due to the incompetence of national authorities and the overbearing powers of the EU.
Profitable businesses take the hit
What is seen is as surprising to many reading about the story of Veneto is that profitable, stable businesses are also suffering as a result of a banking collapse.
When someone’s savings are wiped out, that isn’t the end of the nightmare. Many businesses were exposed to those banks both through credit and shares.
Many businesses operate on credit. This happens in companies of all scales and levels of success. The businesses that borrowed from the two Veneto banks are now in a state of limbo. They have no line of credit due to their exposure to the collapsed banks.
This is despite a government-led body stepping into help manage the fallout and finances of the ruined institutions. Bloomberg explains:
Even a perfect credit score is useless in Veneto now if your only collateral is stock in either bank, which were coveted investments for generations of locals.
Bail-in of the first resort
Italians are in very deep financially when it comes to their banking system. The 2015 IMF report states:
Retail holdings in Italy are relatively large compared to other countries, comprising about one- third of about €600 billion worth of bank bonds and half of about €60 billion worth of subordinated bonds.
That is all money that will just disappear overnight in the case of bank failure. In some cases, it already has.
In Italy a common problem has been that savers and businesses were persuaded to invest in subordinated (junior) bonds by their bank managers.
By 2015 over €31 billion of retail sub bonds had been sold to retail investors. Retail investors are ordinary savers and small businesses.
‘Households hold about one-third of senior bank debt and almost half of total subordinated bank debt.’ – IMF
These bondholders are seen as creditors. The same type of creditor that EU rules state must take responsibility for a bank’s financial failure, rather than the taxpayer. This is a bail-in scenario.
In a bail-in scenario the type of junior bonds held by the retail investors in the street is the first to take the hit. When the world’s oldest bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena collapsed ordinary people (who also happen to be taxpayers) owned €5 billion ($5.5 billion) of subordinated debt. It vanished.
A 2015 IMF study found that the majority of Italy’s 15 largest banks a bank rescue would ‘imply bail-in of retail investors of subordinated debt’. Only two-thirds of potential bail-ins would affect senior bond-holders.
Nothing will respect you like gold does
Why put so much faith in the bank? Because, despite many financial crises in the last 100 years, savers and businesses still believe their money will be safe.
The graph above shows just how much we still trust our banks. The least trusting country is Italy yet their exposure has been so great, imagine what damage will be done when the likes of the UK, US or Germany face a bail-in situation.
In Italy where banks have been around for literally hundreds of years, many family business owners are still dealing with bank accounts, investments and loans their ancestors organised a century ago.
This kind of relationship can lead to an almost Stockholm Syndrome situation. Despite receiving consistency bad treatment from your bank you want to support it and help it out. You still trust it. So when the bank suggests you hold shares then you take their advice.
“We jealously guarded those shares like you would gold bars,” A 60 year old baker told Bloomberg, “Buying your bank’s stock was the traditional thing to do. We got it badly wrong.”
Of course what everyone forgets is that banks are not there to look after you. They are there to make money. They do this almost instantly the second you deposit funds, it’s their money. The second you take out a loan, they own you. The second you buy shares, they have a license to be reckless.
Naively treating anything other than gold like gold is the first step in financial mismanagement. Nothing is like physical, allocated and segregated gold. For a start it is all yours.
Is your government or the EU there for you? Don’t bet on it
A bail-in forces creditors of a bank to shoulder losses when the firm fails. The term covers cover every case of creditor loss-sharing when a bank goes belly-up.
This is different to events we saw during the 2008 financial crisis when taxpayers tended to bail-out banks. Since 2016 European Union rules have stated there must be a bail-in before a government bailout is allowed.
Governments would clearly like to prevent savings of hardworking individuals and businesses from being wiped out. However they are fearful of the EU, trying to skirt their bail-in rules would no doubt sour relations with a body that is keen to stick to rules it only recently passed.
There is a conflict of interest it seems between pleasing the EU and doing the right thing by voters.
Given Brexit and now Catalonia the EU is unlikely to be in the mood to bend its rules for another troublesome country. This is despite it costing the EU’s own citizens billions of euros in lost savings and investments.
This is a risk for the EU, especially in Italy where there is already strong anti-EU sentiment. The case of Veneto, where 75% require more power and 15% would like to see total autonomous rule is another Catalonia again. A further sign of increased populism thanks to an overbearing and indifferent EU.
Invest in gold, or prepare to fail
Depositors and investors should be aware of their country’s requirements when it comes to keeping their money safe in the banks. Whilst bail-ins will at present only hurt those who hold deposits above EUR 100,000, there is little stopping the protected amount being decreased, or ignored altogether.
For those living in the EU, the European Commission has forced all 28 countries to implement bail-in legislation. This means depositors must be more vigilant than ever about the health of a particular bank, and the risk exposure of their portfolio. This means diversifying your invesments and decreasing the level of counterparty exposure.
One area of portfolio diversification that is growing due to concerns over the safety of bank accounts, is gold investment which saw a 15% climb in Q2 of 2016. Europe, in 2015, showed the largest regional demand for gold bars and coins (an increase of 12% year on year).
Unallocated gold is as much at risk as any other asset exposed to counterparties. Savers and businesses can protect their wealth by investing in allocated gold, in segregated accounts. This gives your outright legal ownership. There are no counterparties who can pop along after going bust and take what is legally theirs. It cannot be made to disappear overnight.
Gold is the financial insurance against bail-ins, political mismanagement and overreaching government bodies.
News and Commentary
Gold Prices (LBMA AM)
01 Nov: USD 1,279.25, GBP 961.48 & EUR 1,099.52 per ounce
31 Oct: USD 1,274.40, GBP 964.21 & EUR 1,095.60 per ounce
30 Oct: USD 1,272.75, GBP 966.91 & EUR 1,093.80 per ounce
27 Oct: USD 1,267.80, GBP 968.35 & EUR 1,090.18 per ounce
26 Oct: USD 1,278.00, GBP 968.34 & EUR 1,082.34 per ounce
25 Oct: USD 1,273.00, GBP 964.81 & EUR 1,081.67 per ounce
Silver Prices (LBMA)
01 Nov: USD 16.94, GBP 12.74 & EUR 14.55 per ounce
31 Oct: USD 16.82, GBP 12.72 & EUR 14.45 per ounce
30 Oct: USD 16.74, GBP 12.69 & EUR 14.39 per ounce
27 Oct: USD 16.72, GBP 12.76 & EUR 14.38 per ounce
26 Oct: USD 16.97, GBP 12.84 & EUR 14.37 per ounce
25 Oct: USD 16.89, GBP 12.75 & EUR 14.34 per ounce
Recent Market Updates
– Stumbling UK Economy Shows Importance of Gold
– Wozniak and Thiel Fuel Bitcoin-Gold Debate: Gold Comes Out On Top
– Russia Buys 34 Tonnes Of Gold In September
– Gold Will Be Safe Haven Again In Looming EU Crisis
– Gold Is Valuable Due to “Extreme Rarity” – Must See CNN Video
– Gold Is Better Store of Value Than Bitcoin – Goldman Sachs
– Next Wall Street Crash Looms? Lessons On Anniversary Of 1987 Crash
– Key Charts: Gold is Cheap and US Recession May Be Closer Than Think
– Gold Up 74% Since Last Market Peak 10 Years Ago
– How Gold Bullion Protects From Conflict And War
– Silver Bullion Prices Set to Soar
– Brexit UK Vulnerable As Gold Bar Exports Distort UK Trade Figures
– Puerto Rico Without Electricity, Wifi, ATMs Shows Importance of Cash, Gold and Silver
Once the crooks are able to use bitcoin futures, you can bet that they will cause crypto prices to crumble
So long, cryptos: CME Group plans bitcoin futures
Submitted by cpowell on Tue, 2017-10-31 13:53. Section: Daily Dispatches
Presumably governments and central banks will get volume trading discounts from CME Group on the new futures contracts as they do with the current ones:
* * *
CME Plans to Launch Bitcoin Futures by Year-End
By Evelyn Cheng
CNBC, New York
Tuesday, October 31, 2017
CME announced today that it plans to launch bitcoin futures in the fourth quarter of the year, pending regulatory review.
“Given increasing client interest in the evolving cryptocurrency markets, we have decided to introduce a bitcoin futures contract,” Terry Duffy, CME Group chairman and chief executive officer, said in a statement:
In Augus, the Chicago Board Options Exchange, the largest U.S. options exchange, said its CBOE Futures Exchange plans to offer cash-settled bitcoin futures in the fourth quarter of this year or in early 2018, pending review from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. …
… For the remainder of the report:
Question; how did the Royal Bank of Canada purchase a gold bar without testing it?
Fake gold wasn’t ours, Royal Canadian Mint says
Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2017-11-01 01:37. Section: Daily Dispatches
From Canadian Broadcasting Co. News, Ottawa
Tuesday, October 31, 2017
A gold bar purchased in Ottawa that turned out to contain no gold did not come from the Royal Canadian Mint, the Crown corporation said today.
The mint’s statement came the day after CBC News reported that tests showed the 1-ounce gold bar, purchased last month by an Ottawa jeweler from a Royal Bank branch in the Glebe, indicated it contained none of the precious metal.
The bar was stamped with the Royal Canadian Mint’s insignia and the packaging it came in bore the mint’s name.
But the mint said it didn’t originate there.
“The Mint did not manufacture, ship, or sell the above-mentioned product,” the mint said. The mint complained the discovery and subsequent news report “has raised unfounded speculation as to the origins of the counterfeit and the purity of Royal Canadian Mint bullion products.
“Counterfeiting of Royal Canadian Mint products is extremely rare and this is an isolated case,” the statement continued. “We take suspicion of counterfeit seriously and work with law enforcement to support their investigations.”
According to the statement, the mint tests all its gold products to ensure they’re 99.99 per cent pure.
But despite the mint’s claim that counterfeits are rare, a quick internet search shows such products abound.
For example, the online retailer Wish.com offers what it describes as a “Canadian Gold Bar 1 OZ .9999 Premium Gold” for a price of $13 plus shipping.
The bar shown also bears the stamp of the Royal Canadian Mint.
“It boils down to product knowledge,” said veteran coin collector Sean Isaacs. “And the first line of defense is knowing what you’re dealing with.”
Calling it a “critical, frontline tool” for the bullion and coin dealer, Sean Isaacs said he paid about $1,100 for his Sigma Analytics precious metal verifier.
The verifier works by analyzing the conductivity of precious metals such as silver and gold.
Isaacs said a reliable verifier is something every bank dealing in precious metals should have on hand.
“The average teller at a bank I don’t think has the training to recognize those [counterfeit] products, which is why, in my opinion, you either need a tool to allow you to do that, or the product knowledge to know what you’re handling.”
RBC spokesperson Anika Reza confirmed today the incident is being investigated internally but wouldn’t say if the bank is making changes to how it handles and verifies bullion.
Isaacs said the fake gold bar purchased in Ottawa last month probably wasn’t even made in Canada.
“It’s very likely produced overseas, as with the packaging,” he said. “It doesn’t help anyone when something like that turns up in the market, and particularly when it’s sold by a financial institution.”
Brian Bosse, an analyst with Murenbeeld & Co., a Toronto-based forecaster of gold prices for the mining and investment sectors, has the same concern.
Bosse said if it’s learned that more of the counterfeit bars are in circulation, the result would be a chill on the gold market.
“This is not a one-off. Nobody does this once. The real question is: How did this get into RBC’s inventory?”
Bosse said most buyers never question the authenticity of gold bars purchased from banks.
“They know they bought it from a bank, so they’re sure that it’s good. But that concept is now under attack if there’s more than one of these out there.”
Retail sales of gold has been dismal in the west as bitcoin seems to have replaced gold as a safe haven. However Eastern nations are taking up the slack and buying gold hand over fist
“It’s Been Dismal” – Gold Coin Sales Slump As ‘Bugs’ Bounce To Bitcoin
Gold prices are rallying, but retail gold dealers and shops are struggling to survive.
As The Wall Street Journal reports, businesses that sell gold coins and other products made from the precious metal usually thrive during years like 2017.
Gold futures have gained more than 10%, boosted by a weaker dollar and by big investors looking for a haven during recent geopolitical tensions surrounding North Korea and Iran.
But despite higher bullion prices and solid demand from not-American-central banks, American Eagle Coin sales by the US Mint in October 2017 are down 87% YoY for gold and down 73% YoY for silver…
The weak demand is taking a toll on gold dealers, some of whose sales have dropped as much as 70% compared with last year, according to Jeffrey Christian, managing partner at market-research firm CPM Group.
“It’s been absolutely dismal,” said Peter Thomas, senior vice president of metals at Zaner Precious Metals, a Chicago precious-metals dealer.
“A lot of guys have been really hurting.”
And as WSJ notes, one reason for the declining business: A number of retail buyers are turning to cryptocurrencies like bitcoin to store money during periods of stress, some analysts say.
Bitcoin has “taken some of the dedicated interest in gold away from gold,” said Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, who warned at a CME Group event in September that cryptocurrencies could pose a long-term threat to the precious metal.
While gold buyers historically have looked to the precious metal as a place to hide during a market selloff, some suggest that virtual currencies are a new “hedge against chaos.”
Mr. Thomas of Zaner Precious Metals said authorized gold purchasers who buy directly from the U.S. Mint have been getting hurt, too, because of waning dealer demand.
“They end up having to stockpile coins,” he said.
“You would expect gold to be rocking at the present time, but it’s not,” said Ross Norman, head of London-based gold dealer Sharps Pixley.
Furthermore, small investors appear to be getting gold exposure though ETFs with more than $8.5 billion flowing into State Street’s gold ETF, the largest gold ETF, since the end of 2015, reversing three years of net outflows and marking the biggest period for inflows since 2009, according to FactSet.
From my perspective, you might as well discuss gold versus watermelons or bicycles versus bitcoin. In other words, it’s a phony debate. I agree that gold and bitcoin are both forms of money, but they go their own ways.
There’s no natural relationship between the two (what traders call a “basis”).
The gold/bitcoin basis trade does not exist. But people love to discuss it, and I guess Goldman Sachs is no different.
Goldman Sachs has released a new research report that comes down squarely on the side of gold as a reliable store of wealth rather than bitcoin, which is untested in market turndowns.
Precious metals like gold are “neither a historic accident or a relic,” said the report.
It affirmed that gold is more durable than cryptocurrencies because cryptocurrencies are vulnerable to hacking, government regulation and infrastructure failure during a crisis.
Goldman also reminds us that gold holds its purchasing better than cryptocurrencies and has much less volatility. In dollar terms, bitcoin has had seven times the volatility of gold this year.
Since Goldman’s research department has not been notable as a friend to gold, the fact that they favor gold over bitcoin is highly revealing in more ways than one.
I don’t deny that bitcoin has made some people multimillionaires, but I also believe it’s a massive bubble right now.
I don’t own any bitcoin and I don’t recommend it. My reasons have to do with bubble dynamics, potential for fraud and the prospect of government intrusion.
So bitcoin evangelists seem to think I’m a technophobe. But I’ve read many bitcoin and blockchain technical papers. I “get it” when it comes to the technology.
I even worked with a team of experts and military commanders at U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) to find ways to interdict and disrupt ISIS’ use of cryptocurrencies to fund their terrorist activities.
I will say, however, that I believe in the power of the technology platforms on which the cryptocurrencies are based. These are usually called the “blockchain,” but a more descriptive term now in wide use is “distributed ledger technology,” or DLT.
So although I am a bitcoin skeptic, I believe there is a great future for the blockchain technology behind them.
I’m not telling anyone not to own cryptocurrencies, but you need to do your homework before you do.
* * *
Finally, this gentlement seems to sum up the general perspective…
“You can’t be parked in gold,” said Casey Frazier, a government administrator in Woodstock, Conn., who used to hold nearly a third of his savings in gold.
He has moved some of his money into the booming stock market, and now his precious-metals allocation is down to 10%.
Germany fears EUROZONE MELTDOWN: German investors rush to buy gold
GERMANY has become the world’s biggest buyer of gold amid fears of economic meltdown across the eurozone.
PUBLISHED: 08:25, Wed, Nov 1, 2017 | UPDATED: 09:40, Wed, Nov 1, 2017
German investors have developed a fondness for gold
Figures from the World Gold Council (WGC) reveal the country invested a record ú6billion in gold bullion and coins as well as in exchange-traded products.
Analysts say improved availability, low prices and growing demand due to loose monetary policy, economic uncertainty and volatile geopolitical factors are the three key reasons behind the German investors’s gold rush.
Their fondness for gold is a relatively recent development and before 2008 investment in physical gold barely registered with average annual demand at 17 metrics tons.
The country invested a record ú6bn in gold last year
But then the financial crisis struck and sparked a series of events that ultimately pushed many Germans into seeking a more reliable store of value.
A WGC report said: “While the world fretted about Lehman Brothers, German investors worried about the state of their own banking system.
“Landesbanks, the previously stable banking partners of corporate Germany, looked wobbly. People feared for their savings.”
Economic development in Germany has been strong over the past decade but investors have been very cautious about the risks to European financial and political systems.
Germany is now the world’s biggest buyer of gold
And the latest surge in demand for gold in Germany is being fuelled by fears of the economic impact of Brexit and Catalonian independence efforts, high public debt worldwide, successive bail-outs of Greece, fall-out from the migrant crisis and the resurgence of nationalist politics.
Low growth rates and productivity in some European Union regions and the lack of confidence in central banks have also contributed to the lure of gold.
The WGC report said while gold’s recent rise to popularity in Germany was sparked by financial and economic crises, it no longer needed those drivers to move forward.
It said: “Despite the dramatic growth in the past 10 years, we believe there is room for further growth.
“Though demand growth from institutional investors is uncertain, there is latent demand for gold among retail investors.
“Having made it easy for investors to buy bars and coins, retailers are also marketing them effectively.”
Now Iran is preparing its infrastructure to accept Bitcoin adoption
Iran Is Preparing Infrastructure For Bitcoin Adoption
Amid rising speculation whether Catalonia will adopt some cryptocurrency should it follow through with plans for independence, and in the context of articles such as this from Vice that “Russia is going all in on bitcoin“, one country appears to be preparing to accept bitcoin as digital legal tender: Iran.
In an interview published last week with the Farsi newspaper Shargh, the Iranian Deputy Minister of Information and Communication Technology, Amir Hossein Davaee said that”The ministry of communications and information technology has already conducted a number of research studies as part of efforts to prepare the infrastructure to use Bitcoin inside the country.”
He went on saying the crypto currency has two aspects: Economic and infrastructural. “We as the main center in Iran dealing with the country’s technology developments have taken very seriously the issue of preparing the infrastructure for the new currency.”
Quoted by the Iran Front Page, the Iranian official went on to say that such digital infrastructure is part of the soft power of each country and said entrance of the currency into Iran will end up in the general interests of the country. “Arrangements are being made with the related organizations to put together the infrastructure as early as possible.”
One reason for Iran’s eagerness to escape a dollar-denominated world is that as part of the original sanctions against the country four years ago, SWIFT removed Iran from its network, cutting off the country’s banking system from global networks and making dollar-denominated transactions impossible, in the process crippling Iran’s oil exports which only came online following Obama’s nuclear deal. Being locked out of US dollar commerce, Iran’s economy suffered for many years from financial sanctions which crippled the ability of local exporters and importers from working with international counterparts.
With US President Donald Trump taking a hostile approach to the Islamic republic, and with the Nuclear deal on the verge of collapse due to disagreements over the country’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, it should come as no surprise that Iran is testing how to bypass possible new financial sanctions using Bitcoin, beyond merely local use.
* * *
Meanwhile, speaking at a Russia and China heads of government meeting on Wednesday, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that the international financial system needs to balance which is why there is no place for a dominant currency, referencing the US dollar.
“The balanced system of financial relations should be based on the use of various reserve currencies, various forms of settlement. There should be no domination of any one currency,” Medvedev said, adding that no matter how strong the American economy, it also faces problems from time to time. “As a result, the entire financial world is shaken. A more balanced international financial system is better for everyone.”
According to Medvedev, Russia was pleased with the growing role of the Chinese yuan in global settlements, as it represents one of the world’s largest economies. In May, Russia and China established an investment fund worth 68 billion yuan ($10 billion).The countries also plan to extend the bilateral currency swap agreement for another three years. In 2014, Russia and China agreed on a 3-year ruble-yuan currency swap deal of up to $25 billion.
China has been pushing for a greater use of the yuan in oil settlements. As the country has become the largest oil importer overtaking the United States, it can now dictate rules, experts note. The chief economist and managing director at High Frequency Economics Carl Weinberg has predicted that “Chinese [oil] demand will dwarf US demand,” and Beijing is likely to “compel” Saudi Arabia to sell crude oil in yuan, a move to be followed by others. We discussed this last week, when we noted that China is expected to roll out a yuan-denominated oil contract, i.e. a “Petroyuan”, within the next two months.
Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST
2. Nikkei closed UP 408.47 POINTS OR 1.86% /USA: YEN RISES TO 113.99
3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN /USA dollar index RISES TO 94.63/Euro DOWN TO 1.1639
3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO +.061/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 113.72/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!
3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning
3e WTI:: 55.01 and Brent: 61.48
3f Gold UP/Yen DOWN
3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.372%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.789% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.459%
3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 5.411???
3k Gold at $1277.50 silver at:16.96: 6 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50
3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 18/100 in roubles/dollar) 58.16
3m oil into the 55 dollar handle for WTI and 61 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT A GOOD SIZED REVALUATION NORTHBOUND
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.99 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0006 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1641 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017
3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.372%
The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.
4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.390% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.889% /
5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.
(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)
World Stocks Soar To New Record Highs As Oil, Metals Surge Ahead Of The Fed
US equity futures have hit a new records, helped by surging Asian and European stocks which have all started November on a euphoric note. Surging commodity prices, optimism about tax reform and hope for a new dovish Fed chair all combined to drive global stock markets to record highs on Wednesday, with the MSCI’s world stock index climbing 0.3% to a fresh all time high. Mining stocks lead gains as nickel and other industrial metals soar. Oil rose above $55 a barrel for the first time since the start of the year in the longest winning streak in three months, on hopes that major producers would maintain their output cuts. The dollar firmed ahead of a Fed rate decision while bitcoin surged to a record high just under $6,600.
As Bloomberg summarizes in its Macro Squawk Wrap, equities globally extended gains as investors await Fed developments, with a rate decision due today and announcement of the next chair expected on Thursday. Euro Stoxx 50 futures advance for a third-straight day, while S&P 500 futures set fresh day highs in the European session. Treasury futures trade in tight ranges after earlier weakening; block trades emerge, consistent with selling of U.S. bonds and buying of German debt. U.K. Oct. manufacturing PMI beats estimates, buoying sterling and sending GBP/USD above 1.3300 for the first time in weeks. WTI futures climb above $55/bbl to hit highest level since January; base metals gain broadly as nickel futures trade limit up in Shanghai.
Among the proposed explanations for today’s melt up is that we are witnessing a compressed and accelerated version of the Halloween rally, as summarized in the following Robeco chart:
Whatever the reason, the buying today is unstoppable, with the European STOXX 600 index climbing to its highest level since August 2015 as stock markets in London, Paris and Frankfurt gained 0.5 to 1.2 percent in early trade. As a result, the Stoxx 600’s relative strength index has now climbed above 70, a level that indicates overbought conditions, for the first time in more than 2 weeks, and is heading for its highest level since Aug. 2015, led by cyclical sectors including miners, automakers and technology.
Europe’s jump followed a rally in Asia, where stock markets hit 10-year highs, with most of the 19 industry sectors rising. As of Tuesday’s close, 45 percent of MSCI Europe companies had reported results for the third quarter, of which 66 percent either beat or met expectations, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S data. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rose 0.3 percent to the highest in a week. Germany’s DAX Index increased 1.3 percent to the highest on record. DAX outperforms as German participants return to market from Reformation Day
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.9%, led by a 1.3% jump in South Korea. South Korea’s economic growth accelerated to its fastest pace in seven years last quarter. Growth in Taiwan during the same period was the strongest in 2 1/2 years. Of note in Asia was Japan, where the stock meltup was most pronounced with the Nikkei rising nearly 2%, and the Topix index rising to the highest in more than a decade, buoyed by a weaker yen, as a surge in U.S. consumer confidence in October served as the latest confirmation of a global economic recovery ahead of a Federal Reserve policy decision on Wednesday. Electronics makers gave the biggest boost to the Topix as Sony jumped 11% to the highest level since June 2008 after lifting its annual operating profit outlook to a record, after the company announced record annual profit in 2017 owing to strong sales of semiconductors and favorable exchange rates. Tokyo Electron surged after posting results that beat expectations. The Nikkei 225 gained 5.5% in October, its strongest showing in 11 months. “Investors are gaining confidence as the global economy is solid,” said Masaaki Yamaguchi, an equity market strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Tokyo. “Not only exporters but also domestic-demand-oriented companies are improving earnings.” “Business confidence and corporate earnings are good in the U.S., and business sentiment is improving globally,” said Mitsushige Akino, an executive officer with Ichiyoshi Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “Stocks are inclined to rebound, with a series of good earnings results. There’s more room for high-tech related shares to rise.”
India’s benchmark equity indexes climbed to fresh records after a World Bank report showed it’s easier to do business in the nation. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 1.2% to 33,600.27 while the NSE Nifty 50 Index jumped 1% in Mumbai. Twelve of the 19 sectoral sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. climbed, led by a gauge of telecom companies. Bharti Airtel Ltd. gained the most on the Sensex after the country’s largest wireless carrier said “reputed global investors” had expressed interest in buying a stake in its Bharti Infratel unit.
The dollar and Treasuries held steady ahead of a Federal Reserve decision expected to signal a rate rise is still in the cards for December. The New Zealand dollar surged after the country’s unemployment rate fell, while the yen led losses on reports Japan may plan for an increased budget and reappoint Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. European stocks jumped to a two-year high. The dollar’s index against a basket of six major currencies stood at 94.60, down from last week’s three-month peak of 95.15. The euro was little changed at $1.1644, some distance from the three-month low of $1.1574 it touched on Friday after the European Central Bank’s stance was perceived to be more dovish than expected. The biggest currency mover was the New Zealand dollar. It jumped over 1 percent to $0.6931 after the country’s jobless rate sank more than expected to a nine-year low of 4.6 percent. Bitcoin hit another record high above 6,600, boosted by bets the crypto-currency might enter the financial mainstream after the world’s largest derivatives exchange operator said on Tuesday it would launch bitcoin futures. The yield on 10-year TSY rose 1bp to 2.39%. Germany’s 10-year yield also climbed 1 bp to 0.37% while Britain’s 10-year yield rose less than one basis point to 1.335%.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index climbed to the highest since March as WTI crude rose above $55 a barrel and industrial metals advanced, buoyed by optimism that demand from China won’t falter after a gauge of Chinese manufacturing suggested growth momentum remains robust. Nickel has been on a tear since Tuesday after Trafigura joined Glencore in revealing bullish forecasts because of the popularity of electric cars. Nickel sulphate is a key ingredient in lithium-ion batteries.
Meanwhile, in the US, Wall Street’s three main indexes, the Dow, S&P and Naz, ended October with their biggest monthly gains since February. The focus remains firmly on central banks. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates on hold Wednesday while signaling an all-clear for a December hike. An announcement on who will helm the U.S. central bank is due by the end of the week, with current board member Jerome Powell said to have the edge over the likely more hawkish John Taylor. The Bank of England will probably lift borrowing costs on Thursday for the first time in a decade.
One potential threat to the markets’ risk-on mood could come from the unfolding investigation into whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russian interests after the first indictments from Special Counsel Robert Mueller. Former Trump adviser George Papadopoulos claimed campaign officials approved a pre-election meeting with Russian representatives. US House Tax Committee Chairman Brady said that after consultation with President Trump and leadership team, they have decided to postpone the tax plan release to Thursday. There were initial reports that GOP tax plan would delay repeal of estate tax and will have corporate taxes cut to 20% during the 1st year, according to sources. (WSJ) However, there were later conflicting reports that stated some House GOP Representatives were said to consider phasing out 20% corp. tax over a number of years
Elsewhere, bitcoin soared to a record after CME Group, the world’s biggest exchange operator, said it plans to launch futures trading on the cryptocurrency by year-end.
Economic events include Fed’s rate decision, manufacturing data from ISM and Markit. Companies reporting earnings include Facebook, Kraft Heinz, Qualcomm.
Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk
- Buoyant commodity prices and corporate earnings have help lift European bourses this morning
- GBP failed to sustain gains in the wake of upbeat UK manufacturing PMI ahead of tomorrow’s BoE announcement
- Looking ahead, highlights include ADP employment change, ISM manufacturing, DoEs and FOMC rate decision
- S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2,583.00
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 397.40
- MSCI Asia up 1% to 169.66
- MSCI Asia ex Japan up 1% to 556.40
- Nikkei up 1.9% to 22,420.08
- Topix up 1.2% to 1,786.71
- Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 28,594.06
- Shanghai Composite up 0.08% to 3,395.91
- Sensex up 1.2% to 33,607.95
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5,937.77
- Kospi up 1.3% to 2,556.47
- German 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to 0.366%
- Euro down 0.03% to $1.1642
- Brent Futures up 0.9% to $61.49/bbl
- Italian 10Y yield fell 2.1 bps to 1.561%
- Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to 1.454%
- Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,275.46
- U.S. Dollar Index up 0.04% to 94.59
Top Headline News from Bloomberg
- A suspected terrorist plowed a truck down a bicycle path in lower
Manhattan blocks from the site of the World Trade Center, killing eight
and seriously wounding several more before an officer shot and arrested
- The biggest changes to the FOMC statement will probably come from an upgrade in its description of the U.S. economy. That would further cement the case for a move in December, though it’s unlikely that the committee will change the statement’s language to explicitly signal a rate hike; see FOMC decision day guide here
- House tax writers pushed back the reveal of their highly guarded, long awaited tax bill by a day, a sign that disputes among Republican lawmakers are threatening their effort to pass comprehensive legislation by Thanksgiving
- While an interest-rate hike by the BOE on Thursday is almost fully priced in, its nature is still in question, sending overnight volatility in cable to levels not seen since the Fed’s meeting in September
- Caixin China October manufacturing purchasing managers’ index at 51, matching estimates and unchanged from September
- One potential threat to the markets’ risk-on mood could come from the unfolding investigation into whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russian interests after the first indictments from Special Counsel Robert Mueller
- As investors eagerly await President Donald Trump’s Federal Reserve chair nomination, the central bank’s policy-setting committee will meet quietly in the background this week with many expecting them to keep interest rates unchanged
- Treasury 10-year yield is set to climb toward 3 percent as the Fed could tighten three times in 2018 after a likely move in December, said James Ashley head of international market strategy Goldman Sachs Asset Management at the money manager
- Best Buy Co. said it stopped some sales of Apple Inc.’s iPhone X and iPhone 8 after consumers complained about the retailer charging a $100 premium on the already expensive smartphones
- Mylan NV’s second-ranked executive took an active role in a vast and “sinister” price-fixing conspiracy among global makers of generic pills that kept prices of the medications artificially high, dozens of states alleged in a new complaint; Mylan Bond Spreads Widen Amid Price-Fixing Probe
- Former Trump adviser George Papadopoulos made a significant claim in an email: Top Trump campaign officials agreed to a pre-election meeting with representatives of Russian President Vladimir Putin
- Bank of England’s governor Mark Carney faces a defining credibility test on Brexit-era rates
- U.K. Hints at Compromises on Brexit Bill as Date Set for Talks
- Macau Oct. Casino Rev. Rises 22.1% Y/y; Est. 14.5% Rise
Asian equity markets began November solidly on the front-foot led by the Nikkei 225 (+1.95%) as exporters benefited from a weaker JPY and with Sony at its highest in over 9 years after its H1 profit more than tripled. Elsewhere, KOSPI (+1.3%) extended on record levels and ASX 200 (+0.5%) was also higher amid strength in commodity-related stocks. Hang Seng (+0.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) both initially conformed to the broad positive sentiment amid continued liquidity efforts by the PBoC, although mainland indices then trimmed gains in late trade. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with demand subdued amid the heightened risk appetite and with a firmer 10yr auction also largely ignored. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 51.0 vs. Exp. 51.0 (Prev. 51.0). PBoC injected CNY 140bln via 7-day reverse repos, CNY 40bln via 14-day reverse repos and CNY 60bln via 63-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6300 (Prev. 6.6487)
Top Asian News
- Hong Kong Stocks Advance as Tencent Climbs Most in a Month
- China’s Onshore Junk Bonds Show Resilience on Supply-Side Reform
- Iron Ore Flips as Traders Bet on Revival When China’s Curbs Ease
- Japan Shares Jump on Yen Weakness; Sony Leads Tech Stock Surge
- Noble Bonds Show Bet on Deal Delay as Hedge Funds See Trap
- Tencent’s Red-Hot E-Book IPO Sets Stage for Music Arm Debut
European bourses have been likewise lifted by surging commodity prices and corporate earnings. However, Next’s (-5.4%) Q3 financial results have sent shares tumbling as much as 7%, which is also weighing on the retail sector with Marks & Spencer and AB Foods feeling the pressure. Standard Chartered have suffered losses this morning after their results printed lower than expected. DAX outperforms as German participants return to market from Reformation Day. Not even an upbeat UK manufacturing PMI and upward revision to the previous headline read enough to jolt Gilts, which high-ticked just ahead of the release before drifting back a mere 4 ticks or so. The range remains extremely narrow between 124.19-35, with the 10 year bond basically marking time ahead of BoE super Thursday to see what else the MPC has up its sleeve on top of the all but priced in ¼ pt rate hike. Bunds also trapped within tight parameters and poised for bigger market-moving events, like the FOMC and monthly US jobs data alongside the aforementioned BoE policy announcements (and QIR). US Treasuries a tad off recent highs/yields slightly firmer, also awaiting Trump tax reforms (now expected Thursday) and his long awaited choice as next Fed chair.
Top European News
- Next Suffers as Warm Autumn Keeps Shoppers From Stores
- Greece Is Said to Plan Debt-Swap Exercise Worth EU30 Billion
- Turkey Raises Year-End Inflation Estimate to 9.8% vs 8.7%
- U.K. Clothing Retailers May Decline After Next Sales Slump
In FX, GBP has moved above 1.33 this morning for the first time since mid-October, which comes ahead of the Bank of England’s ‘Super Thursday’ meeting, where it is expected they will raise the bank rate to 0.5%. The question is, whether this will be the beginning of a sustained hiking cycle or a readjustment from last year’s QE measures. Within the option market, O/N GBP/USD breakeven is at 100 pips for the ATM straddle. UK Mfg. PMI rose above analyst estimates, providing a modest lift to GBP, although the move had been somewhat contained given the focus on tomorrows BoE decision. The beginning of a new month sees a change in the direction for NZD. Having found support at the 2017 low (0.6817), while also looking stretched on the downside. NZD has seen a move back above 0.6900, which came after a strong NZ jobs report, in which unemployment unexpectedly fell to a 9-yr low, while jobs growth rose 2.2%. Given that the new PM is looking at reforming
the central bank act to have a dual mandate (inflation + employment) this somewhat raises the prospect of a rate hike. However, a
rate hike is not seen in OIS markets until Q4 2018 at the earliest.
JPY continues to weaken against the greenback amid the uptick in UST yields, which is looking to make a retest at 2.4%. Although,
114.00 has kept a lid on the gains in USD/JPY for now, touching a high of 113.97 overnight. Levels past 114.00 that could act as
near term resistance is the highs seen in May and July at 114.45 and 114.49 respectively.
In commodities, precious metals have been gaining throughout the morning to trade at intra-day highs with gold up USD 7.5/oz. Newsflow has been on the lighter side, however, according to Chinese state media, China’s 9-month gold consumption rose 15.5% Y/Y. WTI has extended on recent gains following a larger than expected drawdown in headline API crude inventories and as all other components of the release also showed declining stockpiles US API weekly crude stocks (23 Oct, w/e) -5.09M (Prev. 0.52M). Flows to Ceyhan have fallen to 216k bpd from 288k bpd seen yesterday, according to a port agent.
Looking at the day ahead, the key event on Wednesday evening will be the FOMC meeting there is no scheduled Yellen press conference after. Along with the meeting we’ll also get some important data releases in the US including the ADP employment report, ISM manufacturing print for October and monthly vehicle sales. In the UK October house price data and the manufacturing PMI will be out. Facebook and Tesla are amongst the notable earnings reports.
US Event Calendar
- 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -4.6%
- 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 200,000, prior 135,000
- 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 54.5, prior 54.5
- 10am: ISM Manufacturing, est. 59.5, prior 60.8; Prices Paid, est. 67.8, prior 71.5; New Orders, prior 64.6; Employment, prior 60.3
- 10am: Construction Spending MoM, est. -0.15%, prior 0.5%
- 2pm: FOMC Rate Decision
- Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 17.5m, prior 18.5m; Domestic Vehicle Sales, est. 13.7m, prior 14.3m
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
October wasn’t a particularly scary month for investors with 32 out of our 39 regularly tracked global assets seeing a positive return in our monthly performance review. The S&P 500 (+2.33%) finished with a positive total return, meaning that the index has now seen a positive total return for all 10 months so far this year, the first time that this has happened in the 90 years we have data for. If you go beyond the calendar year end, October now marks the 12th positive month in succession which equals the record set in 1949-1950 and 1935-1936. A word of warning though, the next two months saw the run break spectacularly with returns at -3.6% and -7.7% respectively. See the note “S&P 500: The longest winning streak on record soon?” we did last month for more on this.
October didn’t end in a particularly exciting manner but the action kicks off today and continues apace until the end of the week. However there is a European holiday today so the usual first of the month PMI releases across the continent will be delayed until tomorrow. We do see the important ISM in the US though as well as ADP which will provide some clues to the storm bounce back in Friday’s payroll release.
Top of the bill (pardon the pun) today was supposed to be the next stage of the tax reform story. However, this morning we found out that the plans will be delayed until tomorrow, reflecting “the challenge of crafting and then passing a complex bill by Thanksgiving”. By then, we’ll see if there are any compromises in preserving deductions for state and local taxes which could impact Republican support in California and NY. We’d expect there to also be some focus on whether there is a phasing in of corporate taxes as per the leaks on Monday. Overnight, President Trump noted that “we’re not looking at that (phase in)”, but did left the door open by noting “it’s something, some people have mentioned, but hopefully not”. So all eyes on the House tomorrow. The FOMC meeting today should largely be a non-event, especially as there is no press conference. With a December hike priced at around 85%, it seems unlikely the Fed would want that number to change too much at the moment as it seems to suit them as things stand. They want to raise rates next month but leave a little wiggle room not to if events transpire against them over the next few weeks. DB’s Brett Ryan has previewed the meeting here.
Turning to Catalonia where tensions appear to have cooled further. Speaking in Brussels, ousted Catalan President Puidgemont denied he is seeking political asylum as he is here as a normal “EU citizen”. Further, he noted “the (Catalan) republic cannot be built on violence” and that he would return to Spain “immediately” if he gets “guarantees” of a fair trial. Note that the Spanish National Court has charged him for sedition where if convicted could carry jail terms of up to 30 years. Finally, he will press on with the region’s case for independence, but will respect the outcome of the new regional election scheduled on 21 December. As a reminder, El Mundo reported on Monday that opinion polls suggest Catalan secessionists could win 65 seats in a new election, but fall short of the 68 seats needed for new majority. On the other side, Spanish government officials told Bloomberg that there has been no signs of disobedience so far in Catalonia and article 155 measures are now fully in place. Yesterday, the Spanish markets rebounded further on increased signs of a return to normality with the IBEX up 0.74% and 10y yields down 3.5bp.
Now onto Brexit headlines, where there appears to be more signs that the UK may partly concede to break the stalemate in Brexit talks. One of the key issues is the potential financial settlement the UK owes to the EU bloc, where prior reports suggest the EU bloc want €60bln, while the UK only offered €20bln. Yesterday Brexit Secretary Davis noted “the withdrawal agreement…will probably favour the EU in terms of things like money and so on”. On the other hand, UK government spokesman James Slack noted that Brexit preparations have been accelerated with c3,000 new government jobs created to support Brexit planning, and that “each of these plans prepares the country for the range of negotiated outcomes and a no deal scenario”. Elsewhere, the main UK opposition party is seeking to apply parliamentary pressure on the government to release 58 studies on how leaving the EU will affect industries that make up c90% of the economy. Turning to the EU, the chief negotiator Barnier has offered some support and noted “I’m ready to speed up negotiations”, with the next round of Brexit talks to begin from 9th November.
This morning China’s October Caixin manufacturing PMI was in in line and steady at 51. Markets are rebounding, with the Nikkei (+1.28%), Kospi (+1.11%), Hang Seng (+0.52%) and ASX 200 (+0.57%) all up as we type. Now recapping markets yesterday. Despite broadly supportive macro data, US bourses only edged slightly higher (S&P +0.09%, Dow +0.12%), as investors await for more news re the FOMC, Fed Chair and draft tax plans. The Nasdaq rose a tad more (+0.43%) to a fresh record high, partly aided by further positive momentum from Apple shares (+1.39%). European markets were broadly higher too, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.33%, with gains led by real estate, energy and tech stocks, with partial offsets from financials including BNP Paribas (-2.67%) post its results. Across the region, the FTSE (+0.07%) was up slightly while the DAX was closed for the day and Spain’s IBEX gained 0.74% as tensions in Catalonia cooled further.
Over in government bonds, yields were mixed but little changed post the mini bond rally on Monday. The UST 10y rose 1.1bp while core European yields slightly outperformed (Bunds & Gilts -0.3bp; OATs -0.8bp) following lower than expected core inflation prints for the Eurozone (0.9% yoy vs. 1.1% expected). Peripherals continued to outperform, with Italian and Spanish 10y yields down 2bp and 3.5bp respectively.
Turning to currencies, the US dollar index (-0.01%) and the Euro (-0.04%) were broadly flat, but Sterling gained 0.57%, partly aided by an expectation of a rate hike this week and news that UK First secretary of state Damian Green was appointed as the new head of Brexit and Trade cabinet sub-committee, as some view him as having a pro-EU stance. In commodities, WTI oil rose +0.42% while precious metals weakened modestly (Gold -0.38%; Silver -0.82%), but LME nickel jumped 5.31%, in part as some see materially higher usage of the metal in electric cars. This morning, other base metals are broadly trading higher (Copper +1.30%; Zinc +1.57%; Aluminium +0.12%).
Away from the markets, the world’s large exchange owner (CME) is planning to have futures on Bitcoins by the end of the year. The contracts are expected to be settled in cash and use a daily price from the CME CF Bitcoin reference rate, with likely data feeds from digital exchanges such as Bitstamp, GDAX, itBIT and Kraken. A functioning derivatives markets on the digital currency could increase accessibility as professional investors could get exposure to its volatility and trade it on regulated venues as well as using the futures as a hedging tool. As a reminder, the price of a Bitcoin will set you back c$6,425, where the price has tripled from c3 months ago, up c8x since 12 months ago and up c475x since 5 years ago.
Turning to central banker commentaries, the ECB’s governing council member Visco noted that the Eurozone low inflation “reflects very moderate wage dynamics in several economies, which are a consequence of still large labourmarket slack”. Elsewhere, he noted that ECB’s QE recalibration ‘will ensure a high degree of monetary accommodation’. Then onto Italy more specifically, he noted their internal surveys suggests a “gradual pick up of credit demand, supported by a recovery of investment” and core tier 1 ratios for Italian lenders have improved to 13.1% (from 11.5%), which partly supports S&P’s recent upgrade of Italy’s sovereign rating to BBB.
Following up the indictments by Mueller from yesterday, Bloomberg noted former Trump adviser Papadopoulos claimed in an email that top Trump officials agreed to a pre-election meeting with representatives of the Russian President Putin. However, there was no indication such meeting took place and the email was NOT included in court documents as part of his guilty plea.
Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the macro data was in line to above expectations. The CB consumer confidence rose to 125.9 (vs. 121.3 expected) – marking a record 17 year high. In the details, the present situation index rose 4.2pt to 151.1 (highest since 2001) and the expectations index rose 6.1pt to 109.1 (highest since March). The October Chicago PMI also rose 1pt to a 6 year high of 66.2 (vs. 60 expected). Elsewhere, the 3Q employment cost index (Fed’s preferred metric of wage inflation) was in line at 0.7% qoq, while the August Corelogic house price index was slightly above expectations at 0.45% mom (vs. 0.4%), leaving an annual growth of 5.9% yoy.
Across Europe, there was a deluge of macro data where broadly speaking inflation was lower than expected but GDP growth and unemployment beat expectations. In the Eurozone, the October core CPI was below expectations at 0.9% yoy (vs. 1.1%) even if some considered that there was noise in the series which included German holiday prices which might not persist. The 3Q GDP was higher than expected at 0.6% qoq (vs. 0.5%) and 2.5% yoy (vs. 2.4% expected) – the strongest rate of growth since 1Q11. The unemployment rate for September also beat at 8.9% (vs. 9% expected).
In France, 3Q GDP was in line at 0.5% qoq, but data revisions to prior readings meant the annual growth was a tad higher at 2.2% yoy – highest since 2Q11. Elsewhere, the October CPI was in line at 0.1% mom and 1.2% yoy, while the September PPI was slightly above last month’s reading at 0.5% mom (vs. 0.4% previous). In Italy, the October CPI was below expectations at 0% mom (vs. 0.2%) and 1.1% yoy (vs. 1.3% expected) and the September PPI was also lower than the prior reading at 0.3% mom (vs. 0.5% previous). However, the September unemployment was in line at 11.1%. In the UK, the October Gfk consumer confidence reading was in line at -10.
Looking at the day ahead, front and centre on Wednesday evening will be the FOMC meeting although it’s worth noting that there is no scheduled Yellen press conference after. Along with the meeting we’ll also get some important data releases in the US including the ADP employment report, ISM manufacturing print for October and monthly vehicle sales. In the UK October house price data and the manufacturing PMI will be out. Onto other events, UK Trade Secretary Liam Fox testifies before a parliamentary panel on plans for post-Brexit trade while BoJ Deputy Governor Nakaso is due to speak. Facebook and Tesla are amongst the notable earnings reports.
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)Late TUESDAY night/WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 2.57 points or .08% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 348.52 pts or 1.23% / The Nikkei closed UP 408.47 POINTS OR 1.86/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.49%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.611/Oil UP to 55.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.48 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED IN THE GREEN . ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.611. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED AT VALUE OF THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.6112 //ONSHORE YUAN STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS STRONGER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS VERY HAPPY TODAY.
3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA
3b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3C CHINA REPORT.
The ghost collateral that we wrote about in 2014 is finally beginning to haunt traders. The first one to take a huge hit on lack of collateral financing trade is London based E D and F Man Company who is now caught with a phony warehouse receipt from China.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
6 .GLOBAL ISSUES
Iceland’s biggest volcano is set to erupt after the area had many earthquakes disturbing the caldera. The huge amount of eruption could could damage to flights over the area
Iceland’s Biggest Volcano Is “Ready To Erupt” As Europe Faces A Disaster
Iceland’s biggest volcano has been rocked by the strongest earthquake since it last erupted in 2014.
With swarms of earthquakes occurring in the French Alps too, Europe is facing what could be one of the largest natural disasters in history.
Last week, the 6,591-foot tall Bardarbunga, a “powerful and versatile” volcano, was rattled by the four largest earthquakes since it last erupted in 2014. The earthquakes, measuring in magnitudes of 3.9, 3.2, 4.7, and 4.7 on the Richter scale, struck the caldera region over several days last weekend. Another magnitude 4.1 earthquake hit the 200km long and 25km wide volcanic system earlier last week and several tremors struck in September.
Páll Einarsson, a volcanology expert at the University of Iceland, said the latest quakes are part of a series that have been “in progress for two years”. Speaking exclusively to Daily Star Online, he said the volcano is “clearly preparing for its next eruption” within the next few years.
Fears are spiking even higher when considering the earthquake swarm that has been rocking the French Alps recently.
The 10,000-year-old volcano spewed out large volumes of sulfur dioxide during its last seven-month eruption which took place between August of 2014 and February of 2015. Although the eruption did not disrupt any flights, the emissions harshly impacted the air quality in Iceland, leading to health consequences across the country.
In spite of describing the volcanoes activity as “high”, the Icelandic Met Office has yet to issue any warnings about the possibility of Bardarbunga’s eruption. In fact, the warning code remains green; meaning the volcano is in a normal, non-eruptive state, according to the volcano monitor.
Seven years ago Iceland’s massive Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupted, spewing a choking veil of ash across Europe. Residents worry as memories of the 2014 eruption and the flight chaos caused by the 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano resurface.
The deadly volcanic dust wiped out skies and grounded 100,000 flights, resulting in the economy losing £4 billion.
Should an eruption of Bardarbunga take place, it’s highly possible that there would be another even more drastic air travel restriction and poorer air quality.
Yesterday’s report on the API showed a huge drawdown. Today’s DOE showed little draw down and that disappointed our bulls in oil and gasoline.
WTI/RBOB Sink As Inventory Draws Disappoint
WTI/RBOB held on to gains overnight following major draws reported by API and more OPEC jawboning (this time from UAE), but the DOE data disappointed compared to API’s huge draws with Crude and Gasoline drawing down but considerably less than API reported (and Distillates barely drawing down at all).
Bloomberg Intelligence energy analyst Fernando Valle:
Strong demand continues to spur inventory drains.Crude-oil stocks remain elevated, but refined-product inventories are looking increasingly tight.
Wide WTI discounts to Brent are likely to push inventories down in coming weeks, driven by exports and increased refinery utilization.
Crack spreads are likely to stay elevated, in particular for gasoline, as demand continues to buck the seasonal trend.
- Crude -5.087mm (-1.3mm exp)
- Cushing -263k
- Gasoline -7.697mm (-1.55mm exp)
- Distillates -3.106mm
- Crude -2.44mm (-1.3mm exp)
- Cushing +90k
- Gasoline -4.02mm (-1.55mm exp)
- Distillates -320k (-2.5mm exp)
Following API’s major draws, DOE was a big disappointment with smaller draws in crude, gasoline, and distillates than API reported and a build at Cushing…
Bloomberg Intelligence energy analysts Fernando Valle and Vince Piazza note that it’s the time of year when oil inventories begin to build, and supplies are already almost 17% above the five-year norm. While benchmarks have rallied on heightened geopolitical concerns, sentiment remains unsteady. Oil production is resilient, but exports are offering a key outlet for elevated stockpiles.
Overall crude inventories are at their lowest since May 2015…
Distillates and Gasoline exports jumped last week. US crude, products imports sunk a new record low as total crude/product exports hit a new record high.
US Crude production rebounded the prior week from Gulf storm shut-ins and increased ionce again this week…
WTI/RBOB held gains from last night’s API data into the DOE print, then sank as DOE disappointed…
“If trading behavior in the last few days and weeks gives any indication, prices will rise further on just confirmation of strong inventory draws,” explained Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch, adding “we are close to the 2017 high from January and if that is broken then we are at more than 2-year highs. This will give further incentive for U.S. oil producers to increase output so I think we are setting the base for lower prices for next year.”
8. EMERGING MARKET
Venezuela’s annual rate of inflation is a cool 2875%
(courtesy Steve Hanke)
Venezuela’s Grim Reaper: A Current Inflation Measurement – Current Annual Rate 2875%
Authored by Steve H. Hanke of the Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke.
The Grim Reaper has taken his scythe to the Venezuelan bolivar. The death of the bolivar is depicted in the following chart. A bolivar is worthless, and with its collapse, Venezuela is witnessing the world’s worst inflation.
As the bolivar collapsed and inflation accelerated, the Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV) became an unreliable source of inflation data. Indeed, from December 2014 until January 2016, the BCV did not report inflation statistics. Then, the BCV pulled a rabbit out of its hat in January 2016 and reported a phony annual inflation rate for the third quarter of 2015. So, the last official inflation data reported by the BCV is almost two years old. To remedy this problem, the Johns Hopkins – Cato Institute Troubled Currencies Project, which I direct, began to measure Venezuela’s inflation in 2013.
The most important price in an economy is the exchange rate between the local currency and the world’s reserve currency — the U.S. dollar. As long as there is an active black market (read: free market) for currency and the black market data are available, changes in the black market exchange rate can be reliably transformed into accurate estimates of countrywide inflation rates. The economic principle of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) allows for this transformation.
I compute the implied annual inflation rate on a daily basis by using PPP to translate changes in the VEF/USD exchange rate into an annual inflation rate. The chart below shows the course of that annual rate, which last peaked at 3473% (yr/yr) in late October 2017. At present, Venezuela’s annual inflation rate is 2875%, the highest in the world (see the chart below).
Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 am
Euro/USA 1.1639 DOWN .0012/ REACTING TO SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/ /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL IN THE GREEN
USA/JAPAN YEN 113.99 UP 0.337(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/
GBP/USA 1.3304 UP .0014 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED
THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS/MAY IN TROUBLE WITH HER OWN PARTY/
USA/CAN 1.2877 DOWN .0014(CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)
Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 12 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1639; / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 2.57 POINTS OR .08% / Hang Sang CLOSED UP 348.52 PTS OR 1.23% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.49% / EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED IN THE GREEN
The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED UP 408.47 POINTS OR 1.86%
Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks OPENED IN THE GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 248.52 POINTS OR 1.23% / SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.57 POINTS OR .08% /Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.49% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED UP 408.47 POINTS OR 1.86% / INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1278.70
Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.390% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from TUESDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)
The 30 yr bond yield 2.889 UP 2 IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 94.63 UP 8 CENT(S) from YESTERDAY’s close.
This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.105% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.061% DOWN 1 in basis point yield from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.475% UP 2 IN basis point yield from TUESDAY
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.804 DOWN 2 POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 32 points HIGHER than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.373% UP 1 IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1627 DOWN ,0025 (Euro DOWN 25 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/
USA/Japan: 113.92 UP 0.268(Yen DOWN 27 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.3265 DOWN 0.0024( POUND DOWN 24 BASIS POINTS)
USA/Canada 1.2873 DOWN.0018 Canadian dollar UP 18 Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $54.39
This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN 25 to trade at 1.1627
The Yen FELL to 113.92 for a LOSS of 27 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE
The POUND FELL BY 24 basis points, trading at 1.3265/
The Canadian dollar ROSE by 18 basis points to 1.2873 WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO : $54.39
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.360% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.836 DOWN 4 in basis points on the day /
Your closing USA dollar index, 94.74 UP 18 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/BREAKS RESISTANCE OF 92.00
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 1:00 PM EST
London: CLOSED DOWN 5.12 POINTS OR 0.07%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 235.94 POINTS OR 1.78%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 11.00 POINTS OR 0.20%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 16.80 POINTS OR 0.16%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 198.30 POINTS OR 0.87%
The Dow closed up 57.77 POINTS OR .12%
NASDAQ WAS closed DOWN 11.13 PTS OR 0.17% 4.00 PM EST
WTI Oil price; 54.39 1:00 pm;
Brent Oil: 60.60 1:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 58.19 DOWN 15/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 15 BASIS PTS)
TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +.373% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST
This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM
Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$54.27
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.361% (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.852%
EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1627 DOWN .0026
USA/JAPANESE YEN:114.02 up 0.369
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 94.81 up 25 cent(s)/
The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3251 : down 37 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHT
Canadian dollar: 1.2859 down 33 BASIS pts
German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.373%
And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY
Yield Curve Collapse Continues As Small Caps Stumble Ahead Of Tax Plan
Record highs for stocks, 10 year lows for the yield curve…
Small Caps were in risk-off mode today (having oscillated this week) as the S&P, Dow hugged the unchanged line and Nasdaq was modestly bid ahead of tonight’s earnings…
The moves post-FOMC were marginal…
The S&P dipped out of the gate to unchanged and then VIX was clubbed like a baby seal to get it green again…
FANG Stocks rallied ince again ahead of tonight’s earnings…
Notably, stock that would benefit most from corporate tax reform have notably underpeformed ahead of tomorrow’s tax plan release…
High Yield bond prices tumbled below key technical support…
Treasury yields were mixed today with the long-end outperforming – notably moving after the refunding news this morning…
The yield curve continues to collapse…
To new 10 year flats…
The Dollar Index managed very minor gains today but traded in a very narrow range…
All commodities are higher on the week with silver leading…
WTI/RBOB sank after DOE data disappointed compared to API – despite more OPEC jawboning from UAE…
We also note that copper futures continue to rebound and remains massively – and oddly – decoupled from raw industrial commodity prices…
Finally, Bitcoin surged to another new record today above $6600…up 15% since Friday...
FOMC statement, policy unchanged as growth moves to solid from moderate
FOMC Leaves Policy Unchanged, Upgrades Growth To “Solid” From “Moderate”
In perhaps the least anticipated FOMC statement in months – with expectations of no rate-change and normalization on path – all eyes were on inflation/growth wording. Some feared a more dovish Fed might upset the exuberant growth narrative that is embedded into equity valuations (but not the yield curve), but The Fed seemed slightly more positive (and perhaps hawkish) by upgrading the economy from growth “moderately” to “at a solid rate” even as it cautioned that “Gasoline prices rose in the aftermath of the hurricanes, boosting overall inflation in September; however, inflation for items other than food and energy remained soft.”
As a result of the neutral wording, a December rate hike now appears guaranteed, and the 85% rate hike odds reflect that.
Furthermore, the Fed unanimously voted to leave policy unchanged.
- Fed says economic activity rising at solid rate despite storms
- Fed: inflation for items other than food, energy remained soft
- Fed: storms unlikely to alter economy’s medium-term course
- Fed: labor mkt continued to strengthen, unemployment declined
- Fed: spending rising at moderate rate, investment picked up
- Fed repeats mkt-based inflation compensation gauges still low
- Fed repeats sees inflation stabilizing around 2% medium term
And nothing from Yellen on Trump or Powell but he reiterated that “Yellen is excellent.”
The bottom line is that this was a very neutral statement with no surprise, and the three key phrases coming in precisely in line with “neutral” expectations:
- “Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize”
- “Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced”
- “The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate”
Following this statement, much will depend on Friday’s average hourly earnings number and the subsequent FOMC statement in December.
Some initial, kneejerk observations from Stone McCarthy:
- As expected, FOMC maintained the fed funds rate target range at 1.00%-1.25%. Forward guidance still for “gradual increases” in rates, depending on data. A rate hike in December is widely expected in markets, but the statement offered no substantive hints beyond the usual language.
- There as a nod to the start of balance sheet normalization as “proceeding”, but it has retreated into the background of monetary policy as policymakers emphasize that the fed funds rate target is the primary tool to adjust short-term rates.
- The assessment of economic conditions was more upbeat with “solid” growth and continued strengthening labor market and a decline in the unemployment rate. Hurricanes caused short-term interruption in payroll gains in September, but at the same time the unemployment rate fell.
- Hurricane impacts were touched on as “disruptions and rebuilding will continue to affect economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term,” but still “unlikely to materially alter” the economic fundamentals.
- Inflation anticipated to “remain somewhat below” objective “in the near term, but to “stabilize” over the medium term. Inflation expectations largely unchanged.
- Near term risks “roughly balanced”, “monitoring inflation developments closely”.
- In the absence of an update to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and/or press briefing from Chair Yellen, attention will shift to the December 12-13 FOMC meeting. Markets have a strong anticipation of a hike of 25 basis points from 1.00%-1.25% to 1.25%-1.50%. We agree that a third hike in 2017 is probable given the strength of the economic data in spite of hurricane disruptions. We look for two more in 2018.
A simple look at how the market performed on FOMC days with a presser and without this year shows you what to expect:
- The S&P 500 gained an average 0.23%, the DXY dollar index fell 0.33%, and the 10-year rose 7 bps after FOMC meetings in March, June and September.
- For the non-presser meetings in February, May and July, the returns were -0.02% and 0.01%, and 0.2 bps, respectively.
* * *
Here’s The Fed’s big problem… no matter what they say or do.. the market keeps sending financial conditions easier and easier….As Goldman points out – the financial conditions index has moved as if the fed has eased three times not hiked!
A December rate-hike is now pretty much baked in the cake with the 85% probability before the announcement rising just barely to 87.5%.
Since The last FOMC meeting, Treasury yields have risen but the yield curve has collapsed – signalling the market’s utter disbelief in The Fed’s ability to birth any kind of real sustained recovery…
(Notably the chart shows that while banks may have ben flying – they have actually merely matched the market’s performance since the September Fed)
The Dollar Index has been alsmot straight up since the last FOMC meeting…
Gold has lagged since the September FOMC statement while stocks have soared (along with 2Y yields)…
As expected Trump picks Jay Powell as next Fed Chair
Trump Picks Powell To Be Next Fed Chair
According to The Wall Street Journal, President Trump has picked Jerome Powell to be the next Federal Reserve Chair.
The White House has notified Federal Reserve governor Jerome Powell that President Donald Trump intends to nominate him as the next chairman of the central bank, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The president spoke with Mr. Powell on Tuesday, according to another person familiar with the matter who couldn’t describe what they discussed.
Mr. Trump said in a video last week that he had “somebody very specific in mind” for the job.
“It will be a person who hopefully will do a fantastic job,” Mr. Trump said in a video posted to Instagram, adding, “I think everybody will be very impressed.”
Modest reactions for now in USDJPY and gold…
However, WSJ notes that while President Trump had settled on Mr. Powell by Saturday, but people familiar with the process had cautioned that he could change his mind.
WSJ summarizes Powell’s views as follows…
On Interest Rates
Mr. Powell, 64 years old, has backed Ms. Yellen’s policy of gradually raising interest rates if the economy improves as projected. In recent public remarks he has sounded an optimistic note, saying he expects inflation to move up to the Fed’s 2% target, economic growth to remain steady and the unemployment rate to fall further. “I would view it as appropriate to continue to gradually raise rates,” he said in June.
On Shrinking the Fed’s Portfolio
Mr. Powell in September voted in favor of beginning the yearslong process of winding down the central bank’s $4.5 trillion portfolio. Like Ms. Yellen, Mr. Powell has said the Fed could resort to new rounds of asset purchases in another crisis if the economy needs more stimulus. Putting new assets on the Fed’s balance sheet should be an option “only in extraordinary circumstances,” he said in February.
On Monetary Policy Rules
Mr. Powell has joined several of his Fed colleagues in warning against relying too heavily on mathematical rules such as the so-called Taylor Rule to guide monetary policy. That could put him at odds with congressional Republicans who have pushed the Fed to adopt such a formula in an attempt to make Fed policy-making more transparent and predictable.
“Simple policy rules are widely thought to be both interesting and useful, but to represent only a small part of the analysis needed to assess the appropriate path for policy,” he said February. “I am unable to think of any critical, complex human activity that could be safely reduced to a simple summary equation.”
On Dodd Frank
Mr. Powell has expressed willingness to ease some of the burdens imposed on financial institutions from the 2010 Dodd Frank law, a position that could appeal to the Trump administration.
Speaking before lawmakers in June, Mr. Powell said he was looking into softening the Volcker rule preventing banks for making overly risky bets with their own money. He also said it might be appropriate to ease some of the annual stress tests that big banks must perform.
He has also called for revisiting new supervisory requirements imposed on bank boards of directors after the crisis. In his view, a board’s role “is one of oversight, not management.” That, he said in a 2015 speech, means boards should not be saddled with “an ever-increasing checklist.”
On Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Mr. Powell has called on Congress to overhaul the housing finance system, saying he’d like to see the country’s two large mortgage-finance firms, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, move out from under government conservatorship. More private capital in those firms would reduce the risk of a taxpayer-funded bailout in the event of a downturn, he said in a speech in July.
Although the Fed isn’t responsible for housing finance, it supervises some of the country’s largest lenders who frequently sell their loan to the two agencies. “No single housing finance institution should be too big to fail,” he said.
* * *
Jerome Powell will be the first former investment banker to become Fed Chair (and first non-economics PhD in 40 years).
Powell, a Princeton graduate, was a lawyer in New York before he joined the investment bank Dillon Reed & Co. in 1984. He stayed there until he joined the Treasury Department in 1990. After he left Treasury, he became a partner in 1997 at The Carlyle Group (CG), the private equity and asset management giant. He left Carlyle in 2005.
He will also likely be the richest Fed head ever – Powell’s assets are worth between $21 million and $61 million, according to financial disclosures which require officials to give a range in the value of their various holdings.
Private ADP showed a huge jump in payrolls of 235,000 in the post hurricane rebound
ADP Private Payrolls Highest Since March: Jump 235K In Post-Hurricane Rebound
Following September’s big hurricane-precipitated slowdown in the labor market, moments ago ADP reported that in September private payrolls rebounded from a downward revised 110K (from 135K), which was still significantly higher than the BLS’ own negative print, to 235K beating expectations of a 200K print (which emerged from a decided wide range of estimates, from 135K to 340K) and the highest since March.
Commenting on the stronger than expected print, Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute said “The job market remains healthy and hiring bounced back with one of the best performances we’ve seen all year. Although the service providing sector was hard hit last month due to the weather, we saw significant growth in professional services, especially in the higher paid professional technical jobs. Additionally, small businesses rebounded well from the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, posting very strong gains.”
ADP’s Mark Zandi, also chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market rebounded strongly from the hit it took from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Resurgence in construction jobs shows the rebuilding is already in full swing. Looking through the hurricane-created volatility, job growth is robust.”
Some more details, starting with Change in Nonfarm Private Employment:
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment
The full breakdown:
The ADP inforgraphic:
Soft data USA mfg PMI storms ahead but the ISM disappoints
However this was enough for the Atlanta Fed to raise its 4th Q projection of GDP to 4.5%
US Manufacturing Shrugs Off Fires, Floods, & Storms In October But ISM Disappoints
Against disappointing China PMIs, US Manufacturing PMI surged back near 2017 highs in October – shrugging off the efects of recent storms, floods, and wildfires – with factory jobs near their best since the financial crisis and gains broadening out to smaller firms too. However, ISM Manufacturing disappointed, falling back from 13 year highs.
So take your pick... is manufacturing momentum picking up (PMI) or fading (ISM)?
Under the hood, ISM reported weaker production, lower prices paid, and weaker new orders and while PMI reported a surge to 28-month highs for employment, ISM saw a drop to 3 month lows.
As a reminder, in September, the ISM’s gauge was inflated by a surge in the supplier deliveries index, indicating longer lead times as producers scrambled to get back to normal operations following hurricanes Harvey and Irma. That measure fell in October while remaining well above its average from the first eight months of 2017.
ISM Respondents were generally positive with most comments focused on prices…
“Raw material costs on the rise, but purchasing operation has navigated shortages caused by hurricanes.” (Chemical Products)
“Incoming orders are strong, mainly due to recovery efforts in the wake of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Backlogs are up due to operating inefficiencies.” (Machinery)
“Hurricanes have caused shortages in the resin market, resulting in price increases, inventory constraints and increased lead times.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
“Ongoing market growth. Minimal impact expected from hurricanes so far in this season.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
“Business seems to be a bit depressed due to the storms last month, but is picking back up.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
“Business continues to be better than expected.”(Transportation Equipment)
“Business is good. Supplier deliveries have extended. Things are really picking up.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
“Our plants are sold out for 2017 — we can’t take any new orders.” (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
“In plastics processing, Hurricane Harvey is the reason for every price increase being announced — and virtually all suppliers are announcing price increases.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
However, commenting on the final PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit was relatively exuberant:
“US manufacturing stepped up a gear at the start of the fourth quarter, boding well for higher factory production to support robust economic growth in the closing months of 2017.
“Production volumes jumped higher on the back of a substantial improvement in order book inflows, in part due to supply chains returning to normal after the hurricanes but also reflecting a combination of strong underlying demand.
“Factory jobs growth has also picked up to one of the strongest since the global financial crisis, underscoring the improvement in optimism about future trading among manufacturers.
“An important change in October was the broadening out of the expansion to smaller firms, which have lagged behind the strong growth reported by larger rivals throughout much of the year to date but under-performed to a lesser extent in October.”
Along with this morning’s ADP data, it certainly bodes well for Friday’s payrolls print…
Wow!! The Atlanta Fed now sees the 4th quarter GDP running at a blistering pace of 4.5% due to the huge increase in consumer spending.
Atlanta Fed Now Sees Q4 GDP At Blistering 4.5%
True to form, the Atlanta Fed – which has a habit of overshooting massively at the start of the quarter based on optimistic estimates only to ease sharply lower on its GDP “nowcast” as the “hard” data comes in – has unveiled its latest Q4 GDP estimate , which the regional Fed expects to print at a blistering 4.5%. The number is more than 50% higher the previous Q4 guesstimate of 2.9%.
Why the surge? The Atlanta Fed looked at today’s mfg ISM report and effectively doubled its forecast for real consumer spending growth and real private fixed investment growth increased from 2.8% and 4.4% , respectively, to 4.1% and 8.8%, respectively. Breaking down the estimate, which was boosted by excess hurricane-related spending, by its constituent components:
- Latest release affecting the model was ISM manufacturing, construction spending
- PCE contribution est. at 2.80%
- Nonresidential equipment investment contribution est. at 0.95%
- Nonresidential intellectual property products investment contribution est. at 0.18%
- Nonresidential structures investment contribution est. at -0.08%
- Residential investment contribution est. at 0.37%
- Government contribution est. at 0.31%
- Net exports contribution est. at -0.20%
Here is the commentary:
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 4.5 percent on November 1, up from 2.9 percent on October 30. The forecasts of real consumer spending growth and real private fixed investment growth increased from 2.8 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively, to 4.1 percent and 8.8 percent, respectively, after this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management. The model’s estimate of the dynamic factor for October—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.04 to 1.43 after the ISM report.
If accurate, this would be the highest pace of economic growth since Q3 2014, and the fourth highest quarterly GDP number since the financial crisis.
We now await to see if the forecast from the New York Fed will validate this euphoric projection.
The Fed’s balance sheet instead of falling by 10 billion it rose by 5 billion with one day left to report:
Dear Janet – About That Balance Sheet Normalization?
At the last FOMC meeting – on September 20th – Janet Yellen and her merry band of failed forecasters proclaimed that the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet would be allowed to normalize with reinvestments slowed or stopped in October.
There’s just one thing…
The Federal Reserve balance sheet has risen by over $5 billion in October – the biggest monthly rise since February.
Now, we are well aware of the lags in reporting data from SOMA but this is as of last Wednesday and so unless The Fed suddenly dumped over $5 billion in its balance sheet on Thursday and Friday, we suspect ‘normalization’ means something different to the PhDs at The Fed than it does to the average joe.
I am not buying the strength of the market. Today sales are really lacklustre with Genera lMotors inventory starting to tick upwards
Hurricane Surge Fades: October Auto Sales Mixed As GM Inventory Starts To Tick Back Up
U.S. auto sales for the month of October came in mostly mixed with Fiat and GM being the biggest losers relative to street estimates and Ford beating on strong truck and fleet sales. GM forecasts that the overall SAAR for the month ended up around 18mm units, versus 17.5mm expected, as sales remain elevated due to hurricane-related replacements. Here’s more from Detroit News:
General Motors Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV on Wednesday reported sales declines in October, while Ford Motor Co. saw sales jump 6.2 percent compared to the same month a year ago thanks to strong truck and fleet sales.
Fiat Chrysler reported a 13 percent drop compared to the same month a year ago, due to a 43 percent decline in fleet sales compared to last year. GM sales fell 2.2 percent due largely to slumping Buick and Chevrolet deliveries; only the automaker’s GMC brand saw a bump in sales last month, up 4.6 percent.
But overall, analysts expect a relatively strong sales month due to buyers in the Texas and Florida replacing storm-damaged vehicles, and generous sales incentives being offered by carmakers.
GM reported it sold 252,813 vehicles last month, with pickups up 9 percent to 84,902, and crossover sales were up 12 percent. Fiat Chrysler sold 153,373 vehicles in October. Retail sales fell 4 percent, though the company’s Ram and Jeep brands had strong months, according to the automaker. Ford sold 200,436 vehicles; 93,248 of those were trucks.
Of course, more important than the headline numbers, which are skewed by the recent hurricanes, is the fact that incentive spending continues to rise despite abnormally strong demand and production cuts already implemented earlier this year.
“Although the headline shows a small decline in sales, October looks relatively strong for the industry, as evidenced by the nearly 18 million (seasonally adjusted annual rate),” said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book.
Fleming said some of the strength can be attributed to replacement demand that continues in Texas and Florida due to hurricanes. Perhaps more importantly, he said, higher incentive-spending by carmakers is playing a role: “Even with production cuts this year, incentives are on the rise and have reached 11 percent of average transaction prices. This is an indicator that new-vehicle demand is still contracting, and production cuts could be on the horizon to prevent oversupplies.”
Analysts at Edmunds forecast a steeper year-over-year decline at 3.5 percent. But the automakers will still see a lift from vehicle recovery sales due to hurricane season.
“While replacement demand in Houston was higher in September, we anticipate that hurricane recovery efforts will continue to supplement October vehicle sales in the market,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds executive director of industry analysis. “In Florida, far fewer vehicles were lost to flood damage, but we expect to see an incremental boost in vehicle sales primarily from shoppers who may have delayed their purchases due to the storm.”
Meanwhile, despite the best hopes of wall street that recent hurricanes would help solve GM’s inventory problem, the company’s inventory days actually crept up in October compared to the previous month.
And here are more highlights from Stone McCarthy Research on the breakdown of car/truck sales mix for the month:
Car sales and truck sales are both coming in below expectations so far. Part of the reason for last month’s strength in car sales was due to fleet sales, so we expect to see some of the replacement sales after Hurricanes Irma and Harvey showing up more in this month. Given their sales figures, domestic light vehicle sales for October look to be at about 13.8 million units, below that of the 14.1 million selling pace of September.
General Motors domestic car sales came in below our expectations, and were down over 23% from last year.Domestic light truck sales for GM in October were in line with our estimate, and were up 3.5% from last year.
Domestic car sales were also weaker than we expected for Ford, though they saw the smallest year over year decline of the big three. Ford’s domestic light truck sales were a bit stronger than we expected. Their 12.3% year over year rise was the largest of the big three.
Chrysler domestic car were also a bit lower than we expected, and were also down about 23% year over year. Their light truck sales saw a decline of over 10% from last year, just as we expected them to.
Honda, Toyota, and Volkswagen sales all came in below our expectations.
Including the Detroit Three, we project the selling pace for domestic cars in October to come to 4.71 million units (saar) versus 4.91 million in September. We expect car sales to decline 6.6% from last October. We look for the selling pace for October light trucks to reach a 9.07 million unit selling pace (saar), compared to September’s 9.15 million selling pace, a 0.1% decrease in light truck sales from last October.
So what say you? Still time to buy the hurricane/incentive/subprime-fueled demand surge in auto sales or time to move on?
Trump should like this: USA PMI rises but Mexico’s PMI collapses
This Chart Should Make President Trump Smile
If there is one thing we know about President Trump, it is that he likes “winning,” and that means someone else is “losing.” If the following chart is anything to go by (and anything but ‘transitory’) then President Trump should be smiling…
While US manufacturing is rebounding back to cycle highs, Mexico’s manufacturing economy has collapsed into contraction to record lows as the natural disaster that hit Mexico led to a deterioration in the health of the manufacturing sector in October, with companies signalling lower output and new orders.
Commenting on the IHS Mexico Manufacturing PMI survey data, Aashna Dodhia, Economist at IHS Markit and author of the report, said:
“In light of the recent natural disaster faced by Mexico, the manufacturing sector fell into contraction territory for the first time in over four years.
The disruptions from the earthquakes were extensive, with output, new orders and employment all down since September.
“Meanwhile, currency volatility resulted in the strongest rate of input cost inflation since June, while factories sought to protect margins by raising their charges.
Looking ahead, economic uncertainty remained a key area of concern, with business sentiment the weakest since March.”
Odd that in the US, natural disasters like floods, hurricanes, and wildfires appear to be just shrugged of by the survey data… but in Mexico – there is an actual ‘slowdown’ when the world implodes. We wonder which is more ‘real’.
Obama proposes repealing the Obamacare individual mandate to pay for the tax cuts. That will anger the democrats and some Republicans as well
Trump Proposes Repealing Obamacare’s Individual Mandate To Pay For Tax Cuts
In a proposal which will further infuriate Democrats, moments ago Trump suggested repealing Obamacare’s individual mandate to fund his proposed tax cut.
“Wouldn’t it be great to repeal the very unfair and unpopular individual mandate in ObamaCare and use those savings for further tax cuts for the Middle Class. The House and Senate should consider ASAP as the process of final approval moves along. Push Biggest Tax Cuts EVER,” President Trump says in series of posts on Twitter.
The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that repealing the mandate would save the government $416 billion over a decade. The mandate requires most people to pay a fine to the IRS if they do not have health insurance.
Trump’s proposal echoes a similar suggestion from Sen. Tom Cotton, who suggested it could free up to an additional $300 billion in money for tax cuts. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch said this week that he wouldn’t rule out including the repeal of the mandate in the legislation, although as Bloomberg notes it is unclear whether such a plan could pass in the Senate, which has struggled to pass Obamacare repeal legislation.
Other top Republicans have rejected the idea, including House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady (R-Texas) and Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.). They fear adding mandate repeal into the mix would jeopardize tax reform.
As reported yesterday, the GOP delayed its release of tax bill, as a result of last minute disagreement over the contents. As discussed previously, this may be just the first of several delays as somehow the proposal, now likely hobbled by over $1 trillion on the revenue side as it appears there will be no significant change to the treatment of local and state tax deductions, has to reconcile a plethora of conflicting items including:
- Are middle-class cuts from the budget framework (like doubling the standard deduction and expanded child tax credits) included?
Is the SALT deduction included (or capped in some way)?
- What level is the corporate tax rate (over/under Trump’s 20% target)
- Is there a fourth tax bracket (rumblings suggest incomes above 1mm USD would be affected)
- Is the tax cut retroactive to Jan. 1, 2017?
- Is there a repatriation deal for money kept overseas?
- Does it add to the deficit? If so, how much?
- Will extraneous issues be slipped into the draft to entice specific voters?
- Minimum wage hike
- Border wall funding
- Debt ceiling compromise
- Planned parenthood funding
The following is a must read as Stockman explains to us the ridiculousness of the charges and conviction on Baby George Papadopulous for lying to the FBI on a date which was totally frivolous. Now you will understand the deep state and how it operates!!
a must read..
Stockman Slams Mueller’s Mugging Of America: The Case Of Baby George Papadopoulos
This is how the Deep State crushes disobedience by the unwashed American public. It indicts not only ham sandwiches but, apparently, political infants in diapers too, if that’s what it takes. Hence the sudden notoriety of Baby George Papadopoulos, who pled guilty to “lying” about an essentially immaterial date to the FBI.
Oh, and by all signs and signals that plea came after this 30 year-old novice had been wearing a wire for several months.
So here’s how this noxious act of bullying by Robert Mueller’s Federally-deputized thugs came down. It seems that during the early months of 2016, when Trump was winning primary after primary against all mainstream media expectations, the Donald’s establishment betters began attacking his foreign policy credentials with special malice aforethought.
That was mainly owing to his sensible suggestion that it would be better to seek rapprochement with Russia rather than pursue Hillary’s Cold War 2.0 and that 25 years after the disappearance of the Soviet Union from the pages of history that NATO was obsolete.
Since this totally plausible (and correct) viewpoint was deeply offensive to the Imperial City’s group think and threatened the Warfare State’s existential need for a fearsome enemy, Trump’s ruminations about making a deal with Putin were belittled. They were, in fact, attributed not to a fresh look at the realities abroad or the possibility that homeland security does not require a global empire, but to the candidate’s lack of any pedigreed foreign policy advisors.
Indeed, when it came to the Republican-oriented foreign policy establishment—nearly all of which had joined the Never Trump cause—-the Donald added insult to injury. That is, by suggesting he got his foreign policy views watching TV (like most of Washington) and that he could do a better job against terrorism than the Pentagon generals (not hard).
At length, however, the “who are your foreign policy advisors” meme got so relentless that the Donald relented. On March 21, 2016 he announced a group of five advisors that exactly no one who was anyone in the Imperial City had ever heard of, and for good reason.
The group included two recycled DOD flunkies, an anti-Muslim fanatic from the Lebanon religious wars and two kids of no accomplishment in the foreign policy field whatsoever. In a word, the foreign policy establishment’s boycott of the Trump campaign at that stage was 100% effective.
Indeed, under a snarky headline the next day about how the new Trump foreign policy team “baffles GOP experts”, Politico laid on the disdain good and hard:
“I don’t know any of them,” said Kori Schake, a research fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and a former official in the George W. Bush State Department. “National security is hard to do well even with first-rate people. It’s almost impossible to do well with third-rate people.”
One of the five, of course, was Carter Page who had actually spent time in Moscow years earlier working as a stock broker and didn’t exactly share Hillary’s fulminations that Putin was Adolph Hitler incarnate.
So Politico made very clear that Mr. Page was apparently some kind of Kremlin stooge for uttering true facts about Russia.
To wit, that Russia had not “invaded” Ukraine, but to the contrary, the February 2014 coup on the streets of Kiev was fomented, funded, and illegally installed in power by Washington agents on the ground. Among others, these included the US Ambassador to Ukraine, Assistant Secretary Victoria Nuland (“Yats is our man”), CIA operatives under embassy cover, the National Endowment for Democracy and its NGO subalterns and, especially, the War Party’s roving Viceroy, Senator John McCain:
Page, who has worked for Merrill Lynch in Moscow, has accused the State Department’s top official for Ukraine and Russia, Victoria Nuland, of “fomenting” the 2014 revolution that overthrew Ukraine’s government. That charge is often lodged by pro-Kremlin media outlets but is strongly disputed by the Obama administration.
In this context, Politico made short shrift of young Mr. Papadopoulos and properly so. This kid had no more qualifications to be named among the top five foreign policy advisors to the then near-presumptive GOP nominee than anyone else in the DC phone book—-although at the time Baby George was called to duty he was apparently domiciled in London and perhaps listed in its phone book.
Indeed, after rounding up an ex-Pentagon bean counter, a washed-up general who had “managed” (not well) the US “occupation” of Baghdad in 2003-2004 and Walid Phares, the Lebanese war veteran who claimed that the Moslem Brotherhood had infiltrated the State Department and was fixing to spread “Sharia law” to the towns and villages of America, you almost have the impression that the Donald instructed Ivanka and Jared to check out the Mar-A-Logo sandbox for candidates to round out the rooster.
That’s apparently where Papadopoulos came from because he had graduated from college only in 2009, got two more degrees by 2011 in London, functioned as a junior researcher at Hudson Institute for several years and then “worked” on Ben Carson’s presidential campaign for three months—- if you consider that an actual job.
Per Politico at the time of the announcement:
One of them, George Papadopoulos, is a 2009 college graduate and an international energy lawyer. Papadopoulos had previously advised Ben Carson’s presidential campaign. According to his LinkedIn page, he was a researcher at the conservative Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., before joining the London Center of International Law Practice, which describes itself as dedicated to “peace and development through international law and dispute resolution.”
Papadopoulos’ LinkedIn page also boasts about his role at the 2012 meeting in Geneva of Model U.N., the student role-playing exercise on international diplomacy. It adds that he has “had experience lobbying foreign policy resolutions on Capitol Hill by means of coherent and concise arguments.”
In a word, Baby George’s “crime” came about in the process of trying to put on his Big Boy Pants and get noticed by higher-ups in the campaign. So doing, he came into contact on about March 14 with a London professor who claimed to be plugged into Russian sources with “dirt” about Hillary.
Needless to say, the London professor, one Joseph Mifsud, who had formerly served in a high ranking government position in his native land of, well, Malta (as assistant to the Maltese foreign minister), didn’t know anybody in the Kremlin, either. That is, Mifsud was actually a no count talking to a another no count.
Prior to his appearance on the FBI’s fake stage of international intrigue, in fact, Mifsud had been a “director” of some sort at the London Academy of Diplomacy—–a place that grants masters degrees to young people earnestly endeavoring a career in making diplomacy, not war. That is to say, by the standards of the Imperial City it’s a kind of Quaker Meeting for idealistic diplomats on the road to Nowhere.
As it turned out, George never made any contact with any Russian state officials, didn’t have any meetings with clandestine Putin operatives and came up with no anti-Hillary dirt at all—-despite months of trying and sending loads of essentially unanswered emails up the chain of command at Trump Tower.
In fact, despite sending six emails volunteering his eagerness to set up a meeting between the Donald and Vlad Putin nothing happened. Even the government’s charging document admits these missives were based on Papadopoulos’ conversations with a “Russian National” who claimed to be Putin’s niece, but wasn’t; and someone who claimed to have contacts at Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), but also, apparently, didn’t.
As it turns out, the latter unnamed go-between was one Ivan Timofeev, a program director at a Russian government-funded think tank called the Russian International Affairs Council. The latter was actually a glorified welcome wagon which hosts public meetings with prominent visiting politicians and public figures from the U.S. and other countries.
Indeed, one guest speaker at this forum had been none other than Obama’s former US Ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul. The latter is actually a fire-breathing Russophobe who can hardly be considered a pal of Putin’s.
In any event, the government’s charging document makes clear that Baby George’s emails got nowhere. Indeed at one point the zealous Mr. Papadopoulos got swatted away by Paul Manafort, who—
…. replied to one such request by saying that “Trump is not doing these trips. It should be someone low-level in the campaign so as not to send any signal.”
So finding no contacts, no meetings, no”collusion” or anything else validly related to Mueller’s mandate, the latter’s legal gunslingers came up with the usual default “crime” when a criminal investigations comes up empty. To wit, Papadopoulos allegedly perjured himself by telling the FBI early this year that he had met the no count London professor before beginning his service as a Trump advisor.
And that was true enough—except by the lights of the hair-splitting Torquemadas on Team Mueller.
It seems young George met the London Professor on March 14, about a week before the Trump campaign’s official announcement of its Team of Five. But in the kind of twisted gotcha that only jerks with a badge and gun can come up with, Papadopoulos stands guilty of perjury by his own (coerced) plea.
That’s because at the time of the meeting he had already been recruited from the sandbox and “knew” he would be appointed to an advisory committee.
Trump apparently met with the Five only once and that was for a photo op, and no one running the campaign paid much attention to them, either.
Still, Baby George’s carelessness about the exact dates and sequences of utterly irrelevant and inconsequential events is enough to get him time in one of Uncle Sam’s hospitality suites:
Defendant PAPADOPOULOS acknowledged that the professor had told him about the Russians possessing “dirt” on then-candidate Hillary Clinton in the forms of “thousands of emails”, but stated multiple times that he learned the information prior to joining the Campaign. In truth and fact, however, defendant PAPADOPOULOS learned he would be an advisor to the campaign in early March, and met the professor on or about March 14, 2016……
That’s all she wrote. This damning nugget appears on page 2 of the “Statement of Offense” and the balance of the 14 pages is a complete farcical joke. Papadopoulos’ failure to get anywhere with the Russians in his digging for dirt on Hillary would make for a worthy episode starring the rascals of South Park, but that’s about all.
Anyone not involved in the campaign to reverse the 2106 election and remove the Donald from office should be forgiven for splitting a gut laughing when reading this hideous and utterly bogus case against Baby George Papadopoulos.
Every single player in the cast of characters identified by Team Mueller—mostly unnamed by the prosecutors but already sussed out by the press—had no ability to influence anything, let alone 139 million voters in a US election bombarded with upwards of $20 billion worth of reported and unreported campaign expenses, and the mainstream media’s free nonstop campaign in behalf of Hillary.
Yet the document and Monday morning’s announcement are also cause for alarm. The “crime”, if there was any, was the $10 million that the DNC and Clinton campaign spent on the Trump Dossier. Those scurrilous documents were actually purchased for real money on the back streets of Moscow and do cite actual, live Russian MFA sources, not allegedly “MFA-connected” people, who apparently weren’t.
But, of course, that’s not what’s coming down. The self-righteous Mueller, who turned a blind eye to the massive stench of corruption coming out of the Uranium One deal in 2009/2010 when he was FBI director, has only one mission in mind: To mug the American electorate for its audacity in electing Donald Trump President, thereby disturbing the equanimity of the Deep State’s untethered rule.
The truth of the matter, however, is nearly the opposite. Prosecuting anyone—one either side of the partisan aisle—-for marginal and tangential contacts with a Russian government purportedly wishing to “influence” the US election amounts to the height of hypocrisy.
Meddling in the political life, elections and governance of virtually every nation on planet earth—-enemy, foe, rival, neutral and friend, alike—is what Imperial Washington does.
It spends more than $1 billion per year on propaganda operations by the NED and the various agencies of the Board for International Broadcasting. And that’s to say nothing of the tens of billions spent by the CIA, NSA and other elements of the $75 billion per year intelligence community hacking and stealing virtually all communications that course through the worldwide web.
But all of this is lost on the beltway media brats who front for the Deep State. Here is what one of the worst of these scolds and toadies, a “journalist” named Mike Allen, had to say about the Baby George case on his pretentious Axios platform this AM:
Be smart: There is zero doubt — and piles of new evidence — that Russia manipulated our election. This next phase will show if Trump himself was aware or involved, or has any interest in doing anything about it — and how extensively America’s most powerful companies enabled the mass manipulation.
Is this guy kidding?
If there is any evidence of Russia meddling or of hacking the Podesta and DNC emails, it lies right there in the massive NSA server farms which capture all incoming communications to the US and outgoing, too. It is retrievable in an instant, but hasn’t been because it’s not there.
We didn’t need Mueller’s bully boys to bushwhack Baby George to find that out.
Then again, if you don’t recognize that the Deep State and its minions in the press and both party establishments in Washington are pushing the nation to an extra-constitutional removal of a sitting President, you simply aren’t paying attention.
So at least stay out of the casino. That’s where the temblors will hit first.
Weinstein Facing 6th Sex-Crime Investigation As Former Studio Hurtles Toward Bankruptcy
This must be some kind of record.
The number of publicly disclosed sex-crime investigations targeting disgraced Hollywood studio head Harvey Weinstein has risen to six following media reports that the Beverly Hills Police Department has opened an investigation of its own, while the New York Police Department has opened a second investigation.
Investigations involving the LAPD, Scotland Yard, and FBI were reported last month. In addition to investigating harassment allegations against Weinstein, the Beverly Hills Police Department is also investigating similar allegations involving director James Toback. The department said in a press release Tuesday night that they have received multiple complaints about both the movie mogul Weinstein and the director Toback and are investigating the alleged improprieties. According to a running tally maintained by the LA Times. Toback has been accused of harassment and abuse by more 200 women. Meanwhile, more than 80 women who have accused Weinstein of harassment, groping or rape dating back to the 1970s.
Actresses Asia Argento, Rose McGowan, Lucia Evans and Lysette Anthony have all publicly stated that they were raped or forced to perform a sex act by Weinstein. In Los Angeles, police are investigating an Italian model-actress’ accusations of being forced by Weinstein to have sex with him in her hotel room in 2013.
British police are investigating 11 allegations of sexual assaults against Weinstein that span several decades, sources said Tuesday.
Authorities said the alleged attacks involved seven women and that nine were reported to have occurred on British soil. Three women have stepped forward within the last week, British police said, including one who claimed she was attacked in the early 1990s.
ABC News was first to report that the NYPD has two active cases involving Weinstein.
The alleged victims are Lucia Evans, the actress who previously told the New Yorker Weinstein exposed himself and physically forced her to perform oral sex on him, and another woman who wasn’t named. Importantly, neither case is subject to New York’s statute of limitations.
However, the NYPD reportedly isn’t investigating allegations made by Annabella Sciorra, the actress who went public to the New Yorker saying Weinstein raped her in her apartment in the 1990s.
As part of the ongoing investigation, NYPD detectives traveled in the last two weeks to Montreal to interview a witness, the department said. Detectives have also considered, but have not yet traveled elsewhere, including to Los Angeles. The department’s travels and assistance to departments in other jurisdictions must be connected to the New York City cases.
ABC reports the NYPD and Manhattan DA’s office have received multiple calls to their sex crimes hotlines concerning the disgraced producer. The vast majority of accusations have involved alleged groping or forcible sexual conduct, which are subject to strict statute of limitations and cannot be prosecuted today.
Meanwhile, as Weinstein moves ahead with efforts to sue his former company for terminating him, the New York Post is reporting The Weinstein Company’s talks to obtain a $35 million lifeline from Fortress Investment Group have stalled amid concerns about the flailing Hollywood studio’s finances.
The chances of a deal getting done have recently slid to “roughly 50 percent,” a source told the Post. Bloomberg had reported last week that the financing was imminent.
It was also reported last week that Colony Capital, led by Trump adviser Thomas Barrick Jr., had backed out of plans to purchase the Weinstein Co’s major assets after providing it with a temporary cash infusion.
While the Post cautions that the situation involving Fortress is still fluid, without the money, the company could soon be forced into bankruptcy.
Kentucky is in such a bad state of affairs with respect to its public pensions. Now the Kentucky teachers blast authorities who are planning to reform the plan. If they do not reform then the pension plan will go bust
Kentucky Teachers Blast Pension Reform Plan; Warn That 401(k) Plans Will “Dismantle Public Education”
Graves County Superintendent Kim Dublin in Kentucky is apparently concerned that forcing her teachers to accept the same retirement plans offered to almost every private sector employee in the country would literally “dismantle public education” as we know it.
Speaking to a local NBC affiliate in Kentucky, Dublin told reporters that she relies on the excessive generosity of Kentucky taxpayers to underwrite her state’s lavish defined benefit plans that she uses as a recruiting tool to attract the ‘best talent’.
A local school leader says she believes proposed changes to Kentucky’s pension system would dismantle public education.
Any day now, Kentucky Republican Gov. Matt Bevin could call for a special session for a vote on pension reform.
Some changes include putting new teachers — or teachers who have fewer than five years of experience — onto a 401k style system. Teachers with more than five years in the classroom will still be able to retire with a full pension after 27 years.
That would limit how long they could continue paying into a pension after reaching that number of years. The current proposal allows for three additional years.
Graves County Superintendent Kim Dublin is concerned by many aspects of the proposal.
She says the current pension system allows her to recruit and retain qualified teachers. “Our success is because of people, not programs,” she says.
Of course, a couple of things seem to be lost on Ms. Dublin. First, she has no idea whether or not she’s managed to attract the best “talent” to her schools because her teacher union would never allow her track performance metrics and subsequently use those metrics to make hiring/firing decisions. After all, treating public employees the same way their private sector counterparts are treated just can’t be allowed.
Second, Ms. Dublin seems to not understand that failure to enact pension reform in the state of Kentucky will almost certainly result in her pension ponzi going bust in the not so distant future, thus leaving her teachers with a fraction of the retirement benefits they expected.
As we’ve pointed out frequently of late, Kentucky’s public pensions face a daunting funding hole of $33-$84 billion, depending on your discount rate assumptions, according to a recent analysis conducted by PFM Group.
Meanwhile, the aggregate underfunded liability of pensions in states like Kentucky have become so incredibly large that massive increases in annual contributions, courtesy of taxpayers, can’t possibly offset liability growth and annual payouts...which means it’s trapped in an inevitable downward spiral that will only end when the ponzi runs out of cash. All the while, the funding for these ever increasing annual contributions comes out of budgets for things like public schools even though the incremental funding has no shot of fixing a system that is hopelessly “too big to bail.”
Of course, maybe “dismantling public education” isn’t such a bad idea…there are hundreds of privately-funded schools sprinkled around the country that somehow manage to provide a far superior education at a fraction of the cost per pupil that public schools demand…
Well that about does it for tonight
I will see you THURSDAY night. IT SHOULD BE OUT BY 7 PM
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