Nov 16/2017/Gold up 90 cents on the day but silver, is the real star up 11 cents to $17.09/In Zimbabwe Robert Mugabe refuses to resign/The House passes the tax reform bill and now it goes to the Senate/

GOLD: $1278.50  up $0.90

Silver: $17.09 UP 11 cents

Closing access prices:

Gold $1278.60

silver: $17.08`

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1286.38 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1278.35

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $8.03

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1287.39

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1276.15

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$11.19

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1277.70

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1277.70

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1280.00

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1280.00

For comex gold:

NOVEMBER/

NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH:11 NOTICE(S) FOR 1100 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 1020 FOR 10,200 OZ (3.172TONNES)

For silver:

NOVEMBER

1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

5,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 876 for 4,380,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: BID $7452 OFFER /$7479 up $186.00 (MORNING)

BITCOIN : BID $7756 OFFER: $7781 // UP $490.00 (CLOSING)

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE  1557 contracts from 199,122 UP TO 201,456 EVEN THOUGH YESTERDAY’S TRADING SAW SILVER FALL  BY 10 CENTS.   WE DID HAVE ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND FURTHER  WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD QUITE A FEW MORE COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS WE HAD A HUGE 1312 DECEMBER EFP’S ISSUED ALONG WITH 0 EFP’S FOR MARCH FOR A TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 1312 CONTRACTS. THE ISSUANCE FOR MARCH BOTHERS ME A LOT AS THIS IS SUPPOSE TO BE FOR EMERGENCY IN THE UPCOMING DELIVERY MONTH.  I GUESS WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AND THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. YESTERDAY WE HAD 1050 TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED.

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED RISE IN OI COMEX DESPITE THE 10 CENT PRICE FALL. COMEX LONGS REFUSED TO EXIT OUT OF THE COMEX AND FROM THE CME DATA 1312 EFP’S  WERE ISSUED FOR A DELIVERABLE CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS. IN ESSENCE THE  DEMAND FOR SILVER INTENSIFIES

In ounces, the OI is still represented by just OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.007 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 144% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT OCT MONTH/ THEY FILED: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 5,000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest ROSE BY A LARGER THAN EXPECTED 3244 CONTRACTS DESPITE THE FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD ($5.15) WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING IN WHICH WE SAW NO GOLD LEAVES FALL FROM THE COMEX GOLD TREE.  THE TOTAL NUMBER OF GOLD EFP’S ISSUED TODAY  TOTALED A MONSTROUS: 12,392 CONTRACTS OF WHICH THE MONTH OF DECEMBER SAW 12,352 CONTRACTS AND FEB SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 40 CONTRACTS. The new OI for the gold complex rests at 536,298. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES DESPITE THE RAIDS.

Result: A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN OI DESPITE THE FALL IN PRICE IN GOLD ON YESTERDAY ($5.15). WE  HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS (12,392 EFP’S). THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL AT THE COMEX AS WE ARE APPROACHING THE HUGE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER. WE OBVIOUSLY  HAD NO GOLD COMEX OI LEAVE THE COMEX GOLD ARENA.

we had:  11  notice(s) filed upon for 1100 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

A small  change in gold inventory at the GLD/ a deposit of .300 tonnes

Inventory rests tonight: 843.39 tonnes.

SLV

TODAY WE HAD NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ

end

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver UNEXPECTEDLY ROSE BY 1557 contracts from 199,899 UP TO 201,456 (AND now A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE THE FALL IN SILVER PRICE (A LOSS OF 10 CENTS). OUR BANKERS  USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE 1312  PRIVATE EFP’S FOR DECEMBER(WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS)  AND 0 EFP’S FOR MARCH FOR A TOTAL OF 1050 EFP CONTRACTS  EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. THIS IS QUITE EARLY FOR THESE EFP ISSUANCE..USUALLY WE WITNESS THIS ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THIS CONTINUES RIGHT UP UNTIL FDN.  WE ALSO HAD NO SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED YESTERDAY BY THE CME IN SILVER TOTAL 1050 CONTRACTS. SO THIS FRAUD IS CONTINUING ON A DAILY BASIS

RESULT: A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 10 CENT FALL IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING). WE  HAD ANOTHER 1312 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING OUR COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON TOGETHER WITH NO  SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 3.27 points or .10% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 167.07 pts or 0.58% / The Nikkei closed UP 322.80 POINTS OR 1.47%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.19%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.6320/Oil DOWN to 55.27 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.62 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6320. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WEAKER TO THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.638 //ONSHORE YUAN WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE WEAKER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS STRONGER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS OT  VERY HAPPY TODAY

 

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)North Korea//South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

c) REPORT ON CHINA

 

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

And this guy is deputy Governor of the Bank of England?

( zerohedge)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Documents surface which indicate that Israel is ready to share intelligence with the Saudis against Iran. The key component is an understanding that the Saudi’s will agree that refugees cannot return to Palestinian land in return for a lasting peace with Israel.  Israel and Saudi Arabia must stop the formation of two Shia crescents:
i. from Lebanon to Iran
ii) from the Gulf  to the Red Sea
 ( zerohedge)
ii)SAUDI ARABIA

 Brandon Smith warns that the Saudi coup signals war and an end to the USA petrodollar and a New World Order reset.  He may be right as he contends that this is what the globalists are seeking
( Brandon Smith/Alt Market.com)

iib)Seems to be working:  Saudi Arabia has offered the arrested royals a deal:  Lots of cash (up to 70% of net worth) for your freedomIt is now clear:  the whole exercise was nothing but to replenish the treasury

( zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7. OIL ISSUES

Somehow Norway now does not believe oil will rise in the next few years:  They are planning a divestiture of 35 billion in oil stocks.

 

( zerohedge)

 

8. EMERGING MARKET

i)Now the fun begins as underwriters of credit default swaps must pay out and there will be a considerable amount that they have to muster up:

( zerohedge)

 

ii)At 5:30 pm est, Bitcoin surges near $8,000.00 on the announcement of a credit event and bankers must pay out:

( zerohedge)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)A joke:  the one exchange that the CME plans to use when it starts with its futures operation is down again and it is having serious issues

 

(Russo/Bloomberg)

ii)What a joke: this one BIS official urges accountability while it undergoes in secret huge gold swaps

( GATA/Chris Powell)

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)Trading today:
(zerohedge)
ii)China continues to export deflation to the rest of the world as import prices are contained despite hotter CPI and PPI

( zerohedge)
iii)Soft data Philly manufacturing index disappoints but still the hope component rebounds.  There was a considerable drop in the important jobs sector( zerohedge)
iv)This came out of nowhere:  initial jobless claims jump the most in over a year:
( zerohedge)

v)The house is expected to pass the GPO tax reform bill this afternoon but the less friendly senate will not affirm it

( zerohedge)

v b)The house passes the tax reform bill by 227 to 205

( zerohedge)

vi)We now have the identity  of our secret informant in the FBI Clinton probe on the Uranium One deal:  his name is Christopher Campbell and he was formerly a lobbyist for Tenex, the USA based arm of Russian government’s Rosatom

(courtesy zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest SURPRISINGLY  ROSE BY  3244  CONTRACTS UP to an OI level of 536,298 DESPITE THE FAIR SIZED FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($5.15 FALL WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING). OBVIOUSLY WE DID NOT HAVE ANY GOLD COMEX  LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER  WE DID HAVE A MONSTROUS 12,392 COMEX LONGS EXIT THE COMEX ARENA THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THEY RECEIVE  A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. THE CME REPORTS THAT 12,352 EFPS WERE ISSUED FOR DECEMBER AND 40 WERE ISSUED FOR MARCH. THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS.

Result: a HUGE INCREASE IN OPEN INTEREST DESPITE THE FAIR SIZED FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($5.15.) A HUGE 12,392 EFP’S ISSUED FOR A FIAT BONUS AND A DELIVERABLE FORWARD GOLD CONTRACT IN LONDON AND ZERO COMEX GOLD LIQUIDATION DESPITE THE RAID.

.

We have now entered the NON active contract month of NOVEMBER.HERE WE HAD A LOSS OF 9 CONTRACT(S) FALLING TO 62. We had 18 notices filed YESTERDAY so GAINED 9 contracts or 900 additional oz will stand for delivery in this non active month of November. TO SEE BOTH GOLD AND SILVER RISE IN AMOUNT STANDING (QUEUE JUMPING) IS A GOOD INDICATOR OF PHYSICAL SHORTNESS FOR BOTH OF OUR PRECIOUS METALS.

The very big active December contract month saw it’s OI LOSE 10,236 contracts DOWN to 269,029  (OF WHICH 12,392 WERE EFP TRANSFERS).  THUS ALL THE ROLLOVERS ARE TURNING INTO EFP’S. January saw its open interest RISE by 67 contracts up to 911. FEBRUARY saw a gain of 12,241 contacts up to 192,213. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES.

.

We had 11 notice(s) filed upon today for 1100 oz

VOLUME FOR TODAY : 279,714 (PRELIMINARY)

CONFIRMED VOLUME YESTERDAY: 467,777 contracts.  (comex volumes are intensifying)

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI UNEXPECTEDLY ROSE BY 1557 CONTRACTS FROM 199,899 UP TO 201,456 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 10 CENT LOSS IN PRICE . WE  HAD 1312 PRIVATE EFP’S ISSUED FOR DECEMBER AND 0 EFP’S FOR MARCH BY OUR BANKERS TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. THIS IS QUITE EARLY FOR THE ISSUANCE. USUALLY WE WITNESS THIS EVENT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND IT CONTINUES RIGHT UP TO FDN.  WE HAD NO LONG SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED TODAY TO OUR COMEX LONGS TOTAL 1312 AND THUS DEMAND FOR SILVER INTENSIFIES

The new front month of November saw its OI FALL by 0 contract(s) and thus it stands at 2. We had 1 notice(s) served YESTERDAY so we gained 1 contracts or an additional 5,000 oz will stand in this non active month of November. After November we have the big active delivery month of December and here the OI FELL by ONLY 649 contracts DOWN to 106,594, YET WE HAD 1312 EFP’S ISSUED WHICH MEANS ALL THE ROLLOVERS LANDED INTO EFP’S AND THEN SOME!!. January saw A GAIN OF 9 contracts RISING TO 1055.

We had 1 notice(s) filed for 5,000 oz for the NOV. 2017 contract

INITIAL standings for NOVEMBER

 Nov 16/2017.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  
 nil
 oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz    nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
65,829.761 oz
HSBC
Scotia
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
11 notice(s)
1100 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
51 contracts
(5100 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1020 notices
102,000 oz
3.172 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month     xxx oz
Today we HAD  0 kilobar trans

WE HAD nil DEALER DEPOSIT:
total dealer deposits: nil oz

We had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 2 customer deposit(s):

i) into HSBC:  56,056.956 oz

ii) into Scotia: 9,772.805 oz
total customer deposits 65,829.761  oz

We had 0 customer withdrawal(s)

Total customer withdrawals: nil

we had 1 adjustment(s)

 

i) Out of Delaware:  2341.534 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account

 

For NOVEMBER:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 11 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 4 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOVEMBER. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1020) x 100 oz or 102,000 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (62 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (11 x 100 oz per contract) equals 107,100 oz, the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of NOV

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOVEMBER contract month:

No of notices served (1020) x 100 oz or ounces + {(62)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (11) x 100 oz which equals 107,100 oz standing in this active delivery month of NOVEMBER (3.303 tonnes)

WE GAINED 9 ADDITIONAL CONTRACTS OR 900 OZ OF ADDITIONAL GOLD STANDING FOR METAL AT THE COMEX

THIS IS THE FIRST TIME EVER THAT WE HAVE WITNESSED CONSIDERABLE QUEUE JUMPING IN GOLD AT THE COMEX. SILVER’S QUEUE JUMPING STARTED IN MAY 2017 AND HAS NOT LET UP ONCE COMMENCED.
.
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Total dealer inventory 529,409.586 or 16.406 tonnes (dealer gold continues to disappear)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8,732,195.729 or 271.60 tonnes

I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process and are being used in the raiding of gold!
The gold comex is an absolute fraud. The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction. This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.

IN THE LAST 14 MONTHS 83 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOVEMBER DELIVERY MONTH

NOVEMBER INITIAL standings

AND NOW THE NOVEMBER DELIVERY MONTH
 Nov 16/ 2017
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 3000.08 oz
Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
 nil oz
Brinks
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
 22,251.620
oz
HSBC
No of oz served today (contracts)
1 CONTRACT(S)
(5,000,OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1 contract
(5,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 876 contracts(4,380,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month

Nov 13/ 2017

today, we had 0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:

total dealer deposit: nil oz

we had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 customer withdrawal(s):
i) Out of  Delaware:  3000.08 oz

TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWAL  3000.08 oz

We had 1 Customer deposit(s):
i) Into HSBC: 22,251.620 oz

***deposits into JPMorgan have stopped again
In the month of March and February, JPMorgan stopped (received) almost all of the comex silver contracts.
why is JPMorgan bringing in so much silver??? why is this not criminal in that they are also the massive short in silver

total customer deposits: 22,251.620 oz

we had 0 adjustment(s)

The total number of notices filed today for the NOVEMBER. contract month is represented by 1 contracts FOR 5,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOVEMBER., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 876 x 5,000 oz = 4,380,0000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (2) and the number of notices served upon today (1 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOVEMBER contract month: 876 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOVEMBER(2) -number of notices served upon today (1)x 5000 oz equals 4,385,000 oz of silver standing for the NOVEMBER contract month. This is EXCELLENT for this NON active delivery month of November.

We gained 1 contract(s) or an additional 5,000 oz will stand for metal in the non active delivery month of November.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER FROM MAY 1 2017 ONWARD. IT IS NOW COMFORTING TO SEE CONSIDERABLE QUEUE JUMPING OCCURRING CONTINUALLY IN GOLD FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE RECORDED TIME AT THE GOLD COMEX!!(1974). QUEUE JUMPING CAN ONLY OCCUR ON PHYSICAL METAL SHORTAGE.

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 90,208
CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 121,980 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 121,980 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 610 MILLION OZ OR 87.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

Total dealer silver: 43.817 million
Total number of dealer and customer silver: 231.665 million oz

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 2.4 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 1,4% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 62.2%
Percentage of fund in silver:37.5%
cash .+.3%( Nov 16/2017)

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.00% (Nov 16 /2017)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.56% to NAV (Nov 16/2017 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.00%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.56%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

 

Nov 16./NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.09 TONNES

Nov 15./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

NOV 14/a small deposit of .300 tonnes into the GLD inventory/Inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 13/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.09 TONNES

Nov 10/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

Nov 9/no changes in inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

NOV 8/ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD DESPITE GOLD’S RISE TODAY. INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.09

Nov 7/a huge withdrawal of 1.48 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 844.27 tonnes

NOV 6/ a tiny withdrawal of .29 tonnes to pay for fees etc/inventory rests at 845.75 tonnes

Nov 3/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 846.04 tonnes

NOV 2/STRANGE!!! WE HAD ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.55 TONNES FROM THE GLD DESPITE GOLD’S RISE OF $6.60 YESTERDAY AND $1.55 TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.04 TONNES

Nov 1/a withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 849.59 tonnes

OCT 31/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 850.77 tonnes

Oct 30/STRANGE WITH GOLD UP THESE PAST TWO TRADING DAYS, THE GLD HAS A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.77 TONES

Oct 27/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.95 TONNES

Oct 26./A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.95 TONNES

Oct 25/NO CHANGE (SO FAR) IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.13 TONNES

Oct 24./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 853.13 tonnes

OCT 23./NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 853.13 TONNES

OCT 20/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 853.13 TONNES

oCT 19/NO CHANGE/853.13 TONNES

Oct 18 /no change in gold inventory at the GLD/ inventory rests at 853.13 tonnes

 

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Nov 16/2017/ Inventory rests tonight at 843.39 tonnes

*IN LAST 273 TRADING DAYS: 97.56 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 208 TRADING DAYS: A NET 59,72 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.
*FROM FEB 1/2017: A NET 28.61 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

Nov 16./NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ/

Nov 15./no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 tones

NOV 14/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 tonnes

Nov 13/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ

Nov 10/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

Nov 9/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz.

NOV 8/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ

Nov 7/a huge withdrawal of 944,000 oz from the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

NOV 6/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 319.018 million oz/

Nov 3/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 319.018 MILLION OZ.

NOV 2/A TINY LOSS OF 137,000 OZ BUT THAT WAS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE AND STORAGE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.018 MILLION OZ/

Nov 1/STRANGE! WITH SILVER’S HUGE 48 CENT GAIN WE HAD NO GAIN IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.155 MILLION OZ/

Oct 31/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 319.155 million oz

Oct 30/STRANGE!WITH SILVER UP THESE PAST TWO TRADING DAYS, WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.133 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.155 MILLION OZ/

Oct 27/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.288 MILLION OZ

Oct 26/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.288 MILLION OZ/

Oct 25/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.288 MILLION OZ

Oct 24/no change in inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 320.288 million oz/

oCT 23./STRANGE!!WITH SILVER RISING TODAY WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.039 MILLION OZ/inventory rests at 320.288 million oz/

OCT 20NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.327 MILLION OZ

oCT 19/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 321.327 MILLION OZ

Oct 18 no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rest at 322.271 million oz

 

Nov 16/2017:

Inventory 318.074 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

+ 1.60%
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.79%
30 day trend

end

Major gold/silver trading/commentaries for THURSDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Deepening Crisis In Hyper-inflationary Venezuela and Zimbabwe Show Why Physical Gold Is Ultimate Protection

GoldCore's picture

Deepening Crisis In Hyper-inflationary Venezuela and Zimbabwe

– Real inflation in Zimbabwe is 313 percent annually and 112 percent on a monthly basis
– Venezuela’s new 100,000-bolivar note is worth less oday thehan USD 2.50
– Maduro announces plans to eliminate all physical cash
– Gold rises in response to ongoing crises

A military coup-de-grace in Zimbabwe and a bankrupt Venezuela. Both countries have extreme hyperinflation, citizens are starving and basic medical treatment is near impossible to find. These are the real world problems 47.5 million people are currently facing.

Presidents Robert Mugabe and Nicolas Maduro both deny the crises in their respective countries. For Maduro it is the media propagating false truths. In Zimbabwe the response to hyperinflation has been to declare it illegal.

Both countries are in the media spotlight after a significant week that has left one man powerless and another scrambling to restore faith in his bankrupt country.

Each country’s mess is thanks to mismanagement of resources and the central banking system. Citizens have had their rights almost decimated as the cash in the bank is worth increasingly less and fewer people are receiving income. Basic goods and services are near impossible to come by, with little sign of let-up.

The hyperinflation and economic situations in both the Latin American and south African country are a reminder of the damage caused by governments. Both Maduro and Mugabe have acted under the premise of serving the electorate. Citizens as a result have only suffered and seen their wealth diminish on a daily basis.

Both countries may seem a million miles away from the West in terms of political situation and cultures. However there is a strong lesson to be learnt. Savers should learn the need to protect their earnings and wealth from the manipulative decisions of governments and destructive monetary policies.

Zimbabwe: The tyranny of a despot and his central bank 

“Zimbabwe, welcome back to the record books! You have once again entered the inglorious world of hyperinflation. It is a world of economic chaos, wrenching poverty and death,” 

– Steve Hanke, economics professor at Johns Hopkins University

Annual inflation Zimbabwe

 We all recall the hyperinflation event of 2008 when Zimbabwe suffered the second most severe episode of hyperinflation in recorded history. Zimbabwe’s annual inflation rate reached 89.7 sextillion (10^23) percent.  In response Mugabe and his cronies replaced the Zimbabwean currency with the US currency.
Now Zimbabwe is undergoing a fresh currency crisis as well as a coup-de-grace. It is facing shortages of the US dollar and banks are being forced to ration withdrawals. The bond notes, issued to make up the shortfall, have dropped sharply in value on black market exchanges. The end result is inflation in retail stores and foreign suppliers refusing to accept the made-up-money.
Today the country is thought to be heading back towards 2008, once again. Steve Hanke, economics professor at Johns Hopkins University has calculated that as of 25 October this year the monthly rate of inflation is 77% and the annual rate is 348%. The official the official, dollar-denominated rate is 0.38%. This is hyperinflation and not something you can just outlaw or ignore.
As a result citizens are suffering and the government is unable to meet basic requirements. The central bank has previously said Zimbabwe had a backlog of more than $500 million in pending foreign payments. This is for necessities such as fuel and medical supplies.
Agricultural production, in the once-known bread basket of Africa, has collapsed following the farm seizures and a lack of cash. Wheat production in 1990, before the farm seizures began, was 325,000 tonnes. In 2016, it was just 20,000 tonnes.
Meanwhile, on the ground citizens are struggling to protect the value of their money. With a 95% unemployment rate this is a hard enough situation to bear. Reports of earners and savers withdrawing their money to invest in real assets are rife as few trust that $200 in the bank today will still be there tomorrow.
Whilst the latest political turn of events is likely to be welcomed, it still brings about an air of uncertainty. Few foreign governments are likely to support aid packages to the country until matters have been resolved and a stable(ish) government is in power. Even China, which is the country’s main source of income and support, is likely to stand still and await to see how it all unfolds.
In the meantime feet on the ground continue to suffer as hyperinflation increases and they struggle to pay for and find basic goods and services.
Venezuela: A socialist experiment gone wrong?

Venezuela reminds me of a quote that is often misattributed to Milton Friedman:

“If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there’d be a shortage of sand.”

Today you could say the same about oil and the Venezuelan government. The country was once the richest in Latin America but can no longer cover its own debts.

On Monday it missed interest payments on two government bonds. Even after a 30-day grace period it is unable to muster up $280 million owed in payments.

Meanwhile the value of the bolivar continues to plunge, causing major financial problems for Venezuelans. As explained by Business Insider:

After the country’s economic collapse in 2016, high inflation caused the bolivar’s value to plummet. By December, the then-largest note of 100 bolivares, which was worth about $US0.02, was pulled from circulation. To counter this, new denominations of 500, 1,000, 2,000, 5,000, 10,000, and 20,000 bolivares were introduced. 

Maduro’s unveiling of the 100,000 bolivar note means it’s possible that some of these smaller notes may soon be phased out. This would cause serious problems for Venezuelans who, on average, are only allowed to withdraw about 10,000 to 20,000 bolivares a day. In October, the daily withdrawal allowance equalled roughly $3 to $6 at black market exchange rates. On the current market, 20,000 bolivares are worth around 50 cents.

To ‘combat’ the problem of cash shortages Maduro recently announced in a public broadcast that he planned to phase out physical cash, saying “the use of the physical currency is being replaced.”

This is something that was also seen in Zimbabwe. During their first notable hyperinflation era of 2005-2009, the government ran out of money to pay for money. The local currency cost US Dollars, which they could not afford to buy.

Should this happen this will be even more damming for those with cash in the bank. Currently they are able to withdraw physical cash in order to keep on top of the daily increase in inflation. Now they will have little choice but to sit and watch its value disappear.

The enforced holding of cash in the bank will no doubt bring with it capital controls as citizens are prevented from exchanging the bolivar for stronger currencies such as the US dollar. The first step has already been taken as Maduro has tried to contain the financial rout by banning the publication of black market rates. Something Mugabe also tried.

Venezuela’s default should also be of concern to citizens elsewhere, especially in the US. It has come to light that a number of Americans with 401(k) own a hefty amount of Venezuela’s $60 billion debt. How will this work out if the country is unable to pay or has its debt restructured?

Avoid exposure to hyperinflation 

Here in the West we are currently extremely fortunate as we are not facing political leaders such as Maduro or hyper inflationary scenarios as those seen in both Zimbabwe and Venezuela.

However, as evidenced just above we may still be exposed in the immediate sense to the failings of these countries, whether through our pension plans or investments elsewhere.

Even if you can be certain that you hold no Venezuelan debt or exposure to the Zimbabwean economy this is still a lesson in how one must diversify their assets outside of cash and the banking system. This is thanks to ultimate control institutions and governments have over these entities, should they so choose.

By holding assets outside of the system you can work to protect your wealth from such measures as those seen in Zimbabwe and Venezuela. Gold is one of the best examples. When held in a physical, allocated and segregated manner the owner cannot be prevented from accessing it whenever they so wish. Nor can it be devalued at will or suddenly illegal to trade. It is a borderless currency that acts without the control of governments looking to further their own wealth or political beliefs.

News and Commentary

Gold steady as dollar gains amid U.S. rate hike expectations (Reuters.com)

Asia Stocks Gain, Halting Slide; Aussie, Won Rise (Bloomberg.com)

Stocks Fall, Treasuries Rise as Commodities Slump (Bloomberg.com)

U.S. business inventories unchanged in September (Reuters.com)

U.S. consumer prices edge up; retail sales unexpectedly increase (Reuters.com)

Source: ref: Twitter:@Gold_Advice

TURKS follow Erdogan’s call to get rid of dollars & buy gold (RT.com)

Chinese buying more gold as global demand falls (CGTN.com)

Gold inches down as U.S. rate hike looms (Reuters.com)

Paulson Holds Stake in Gold Steady, Soros Stays on Sidelines (NewsMax.com)

Why We’re Buying Physical Gold with a $1700 Target (ZeroHedge.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

16 Nov: USD 1,277.70, GBP 969.01 & EUR 1,085.53 per ounce
15 Nov: USD 1,285.70, GBP 976.62 & EUR 1,086.29 per ounce
14 Nov: USD 1,273.70, GBP 972.47 & EUR 1,086.59 per ounce
13 Nov: USD 1,278.40, GBP 977.59 & EUR 1,097.89 per ounce
10 Nov: USD 1,284.45, GBP 976.44 & EUR 1,102.19 per ounce
09 Nov: USD 1,284.00, GBP 980.98 & EUR 1,106.29 per ounce
08 Nov: USD 1,282.25, GBP 976.82 & EUR 1,105.43 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

16 Nov: USD 17.04, GBP 12.92 & EUR 14.48 per ounce
15 Nov: USD 17.12, GBP 13.00 & EUR 14.45 per ounce
14 Nov: USD 16.94, GBP 12.92 & EUR 14.45 per ounce
13 Nov: USD 16.93, GBP 12.93 & EUR 14.53 per ounce
10 Nov: USD 17.00, GBP 12.92 & EUR 14.60 per ounce
09 Nov: USD 17.10, GBP 13.03 & EUR 14.69 per ounce
08 Nov: USD 17.00, GBP 12.96 & EUR 14.65 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– UK Debt Crisis Is Here – Consumer Spending, Employment and Sterling Fall While Inflation Takes Off
– Protect Your Savings With Gold: ECB Propose End To Deposit Protection
– Internet Shutdowns Show Physical Gold Is Ultimate Protection
– Gold Coins and Bars Saw Demand Rise 17% to 222T in Q3
– Prepare For Interest Rate Rises And Global Debt Bubble Collapse
– Platinum Bullion ‘May Be One Of The Only Cheap Assets Out There’
– World’s Largest Gold Producer China Sees Production Fall 10%
– German Investors Now World’s Largest Gold Buyers
– Gold Price Reacts as Central Banks Start Major Change
– Why Switzerland Could Save the World and Protect Your Gold
– Invest In Gold To Defend Against Bail-ins
– Stumbling UK Economy Shows Importance of Gold

END

A joke:  the one exchange that the CME plans to use when it starts with its futures operation is down again and it is having serious issues

 

(Russo/Bloomberg)

The bitcoin exchange CME plans to use for futures is down

 Section: 

By Camila Russo
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, November 15, 2017

This is exactly what the bitcoin futures naysayers have been warning about: One of the exchanges which CME Group Inc. would use to price the contracts is having serious issues.

Clients of San Francisco-based Kraken are seeing slow responses from the website, connection timeouts, and delays in withdrawals, the cryptocurrency exchange said in a statement late Tuesday. “We are investigating these issues and working to resolve as quickly as possible,” the statement said.

Problems in the fifth-biggest exchange by bitcoin trading volume come just three days after Seoul-based Bithumb’s servers crashed as a sudden surge in usage caused a connection failure. The issues raise concerns about whether largely unregulated exchanges, without the safeguards of securities bourses, will be able to reliably provide prices for indexes tied to futures and exchange traded funds, and cope with higher trading volume that could come if institutional investors start buying cryptos. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-15/bitcoin-exchange-that…

END

German Precious Metals Association honors GATA consultant Dimitri Speck

 Section: 

1:40p ET Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Financial analyst and GATA consultant Dimitri Speck, author of “The Gold Cartel,” has been given the German Precious Metals Association’s Winged Sculpture prize, which is awarded annually to people or projects whose work has engaged the public with precious metals and related topics.

Association board member said: “Dimitri Speck succeeded already as far back as 2002 in discovering statistical proof for the manipulation of the London gold fixing. In 2011 he followed up by providing statistical proof for the manipulation of the silver fixing as well, followed in 2014 by statistical proof for the manipulation of the platinum fixing.”

The announcement of Speck’s award is posted in German at the association’s internet site here:

http://www.goldseiten.de/artikel/352515–Dimitri-Speck-mit-Preis-der-Deu…

And in an English translation at Speck’s own internet site, Seasonax, here:

https://seasonax.com/news/dimitri-speck-winner-2017-prize-german-preciou…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

 

END

 

What a joke: this one BIS official urges accountability while it undergoes in secret huge gold swaps

 

(courtesy GATA/Chris Powell)

BIS official urges accountability while his press office rejects it

 Section: 

2:33p ET Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Even as the Bank for International Settlements was refusing on Tuesday to answer GATA’s questions about the bank’s activity in the gold market —

http://www.gata.org/node/17793

— the bank’s economic adviser and head of research, Hyun Song Shin, was addressing a conference at the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany, giving a speech titled “Can Central Banks Talk Too Much?”:

https://www.bis.org/speeches/sp171114.pdf

And:

http://www.gata.org/files/BIS-HyunSongShinSpeech-11-14-2017.pdf

Shin echoed the 2005 remarks of another BIS official, William R. White, who said a major objective of central banking is “to influence asset prices (especially gold and foreign exchange) in circumstances where this might be thought useful”:

http://www.gata.org/node/4279

Shin told the ECB conference: “If central banks talk more to influence market prices, they should listen less to the signals emanating from those same markets. Otherwise, they could find themselves in an echo chamber of their own making, acting on market signals that are echoes of their own pronouncements.

On the other hand,” Shin continued, “talking less is hardly a viable option. Central bank actions matter too much for the lives of ordinary people to turn the clock back to an era when silence was golden. Accountability demands that central banks make clear the basis for their actions.”

In fact at the moment accountability seems to mean little at the BIS, whose press office replied as follows to GATA on Tuesday: “We do not comment on specific accounts / holdings of central banks or of the BIS.”

(See: http://www.gata.org/node/17793)

So much for “the lives of ordinary people,” who, instead of being told how the BIS is meddling in the markets, can just drop dead.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

 

 

Gold trading today:

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN AT 6.6320/shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN AT 3.27 POINTS .10% / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 167.07 POINTS OR 0.58%
2. Nikkei closed UP 322.80 POINTS OR 1.47% /USA: YEN RISES TO 113.14

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN  /USA dollar index RISES TO 93.94/Euro FALLS TO 1.1766

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO . +.052/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 114.07/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 55.27 and Brent: 61.62

3f Gold DOWN/Yen DWON

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.386%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.850% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.515%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 5.18???

3k Gold at $1277.15 silver at:17.05: 6 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 24/100 in roubles/dollar) 59.97

3m oil into the 55 dollar handle for WTI and 61 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT A GOOD SIZED DEVALUATION SOUTHBOUND

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.76 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9925 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1678 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.386%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.359% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.797% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Futures Jump, Global Stocks Rebound From Longest Losing Streak Of The Year

 

After five consecutive daily losses on the MSCI world stock index and seven straight falls in Europe, there was finally a bounce, as investors returned to global equity markets in an optimistic mood on Thursday, sending US futures higher after several days of losses as global stocks rebounded following a Chinese commodity-driven rout.

The House is poised to vote, and pass, on tax legislation although what happens in the Senate remains unclear. European shares rebounded for the first time in eight sessions, following Asian stocks higher as the global risk-off mood eased. The euro, Swiss franc and yen all weakened as the dollar edged higher. “After five or six days of steady selling you have got people coming back in looking for bargains,” said CMC Markets’ Michael Hewson. “I think it’s temporary though. We haven’t had a significant sell off this year and the fact of the matter is that equity markets have done so much better than anyone dared to envisage.”

As Bloomberg echoes, “investors seem to be regaining their appetite for risk after several days of global declines in stocks and high-yield credit that had many questioning whether the selloff could become a rout.”

Still, investor concern over the progress of a massive U.S. tax reform plan showed no sign of abating as two Republican lawmakers on Wednesday criticized the Senate’s latest proposal. U.S. President Donald Trump hit back, tweeting that “Tax cuts are getting close!”

“If we look at what the markets are focusing on, it’s still very much the tax cut debates in the U.S., and how much progress there’s going to be on this front,” Barclays’ Mitul Kotecha told Reuters.

Indices in Tokyo, Shanghai and Hong Kong and Seoul all rallied overnight, while London, Frankfurt and Paris started 0.3-0.4% higher as cyclical stocks which had driven the sell-off made a comeback. In Japan the Topix index ended its longest losing streak in a year, rising 1% with technology stocks providing the biggest boost, and the Nikkei 225 advances 1.5%. The ASX (+0.2%) also managed to shake off its early losses, closing higher with the energy sector outperforming as consumer staples and utilities weighed. Chinese stocks edged lower despite a massive cash injection by the PBOC, while the Hang Seng moved higher. Hong Kong stocks rebounded from their worst day in four weeks, as insurers led by Ping An Insurance Group Co. jumped on optimism that rising bond yields will boost investment income. Tencent Holdings climbed after posting its fastest revenue growth in seven years.

China’s sovereign bonds finally rebounded, advancing after the central bank boosted cash injections by the most in 10 months, fueling speculation that the authorities are looking to stabilize sentiment after a debt selloff. Having flirted with 4% in recent days, the yield on 10-year government notes dropped 3 basis points to 3.95%; the 5-year yield fell 1 basis point to 3.95%. The 10-year yield surpassed 4% this week for the first time since 2014. The People’s Bank of China added a net 310 billion yuan ($47 billion) through reverse-repurchase agreements on Thursday, bringing this week’s open-market operation additions to 820 billion yuan, also the most since January.

European stocks bounce back from a seven-day rout – the longest losing streak of the year – that had erased almost 400 billion euros ($471 billion) from the value of the region’s benchmark. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index adds 0.7%, following gains in Asia and climbing from a two-month low. All national benchmarks in the region are in the green, except those in Italy and Greece. Most industry groups also rise, with automakers rebounding from an eight-day slump on data showing European car sales grew in October. Financial services firms and builders were among the biggest gainers in the broad advance of the Stoxx Europe 600 Index.

There was some relief too that oil prices had pulled out of what had been a near 5 percent drop and that upbeat U.S. data on Wednesday had helped the dollar halt the euro’s sharp recent rise.

In currencies, the pound fluctuated as Brexit rhetoric rumbled on, and data showed U.K. retail sales barely rose in October. Concerns about Brexit continue to mount: an article in ‘The Sun’ newspaper, stated that UK PM May, could increase her divorce bill offer to the EU in December; deal would add GBP 20bln to the GBP 18bln said to already be on offer. Source reports indicate that EU is said to reject UK bid for `bespoke’ trade deal, according to Politico. BoE’s Carney states that the Bank will do whatever they can to support the UK economy during the Brexit transition period. Chancellor Hammond said to stick to fiscal rules and resist demands for spending surge in upcoming UK budget. Michael Gove is reportedly facing a Conservative party backlash as he is accused of using the cabinet to audition for UK Chancellor

The dollar index was slightly higher on the day at 93.828 having hit four- and five-week lows against the yen and euro. The euro was down around 14 ticks at $1.1760 retreating from a one-month top of $1.1860 on Wednesday. Havens underperformed on Thursday, with gold trading little changed, and the yen and Swiss franc among the worst-performing major currencies. The Swiss franc decreased 0.3 percent to $0.9918, the largest dip in more than two weeks.

Commodities largely stabilized as China’s central bank boosted the supply of cash in the system by the most since January, though oil eventually reversed a gain. Gold edged 0.1% lower to $1,277.29 an ounce. It reached $1,289.09 overnight, its highest since Oct. 20. Oil prices gained despite pressure after the U.S. government reported an unexpected increase in crude and gasoline stockpiles. They had lost ground to this week’s International Energy Agency (IEA) outlook for slower growth in global crude demand.

European government bonds took their cue from the U.S. benchmark, turning lower as the yield on 10-year Treasuries increased. Bond markets saw a broad rise in yields after mostly upbeat U.S. economic news on Wednesday had added to expectations the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates again next month as well as multiple times next year. Two-year Treasury yields US2YT=RR crept to fresh nine-year peaks in European trading, though significantly the U.S. yield curve remained at its flattest in a decade. European yields nudged higher too but the standout there was a fall in the premium investors demand to hold French debt over German peers to its lowest in over two years, almost to record lows.

Wal-Mart, Viacom, Best Buy and Applied Materials are among companies due to release results. Economic data include initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2,574
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 384.61
  • MSCI Asia up 0.8% to 169.14
  • MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.7% to 555.93
  • Nikkei up 1.5% to 22,351.12
  • Topix up 1% to 1,761.71
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 29,018.76
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.1% to 3,399.25
  • Sensex up 1% to 33,095.23
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,943.51
  • Kospi up 0.7% to 2,534.79
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to 0.389%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1779
  • Brent Futures down 0.03% to $61.85/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 1.57%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to 1.561%
  • Brent Futures down 0.03% to $61.85/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.02% to $1,277.91
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 93.91

Top Overnight News

  • After a month of discussions, German Chancellor Angela Merkel faces a self-imposed end-of-week deadline to unlock coalition negotiations
  • British PM Theresa May saw some support from officials of her German counterpart Merkel
  • Manfred Weber, who leads Merkel’s Christian Democrats in the European Parliament and is a self-proclaimed skeptic on Brexit, changed his tone dramatically after meeting May saying the U.K. had a “credible” position and there was a “willingness to contribute to a positive outcome”
  • Sterling came under pressure after a Politico report said the EU’s Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier’s team flatly reject May’s bid for a “bespoke” trade deal
  • Fed officials are pushing for a potentially radical revamp of the playbook for guiding U.S. monetary policy. With inflation and interest rates still low, the central bank has little room to ease policy in a downturn
  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is trying to persuade businesses and the Republican faithful to get behind a proposed tax overhaul from the Trump administration that so far lacks broad public support
  • The tax plan has provisions that may affect coverage and increase medical expenses for millions of families
  • President Robert Mugabe’s refusal to publicly resign is stalling plans by Zimbabwe’s military to swiftly install a transitional government after seizing power on Wednesday
  • Tax overhaul update: President Donald Trump is scheduled to head to the House, rallying Republican members before vote on tax bill
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel meets heads of her Christian Democratic-led bloc, Free Democrats and Green party to kick coalition talks into gear
  • Cisco Sees First Revenue Growth in Eight Quarters; Shares Up
  • Koch Brothers Are Said to Back Meredith Bid to Buy Time Inc.
  • Health Care for Millions at Risk as Tax Writers Look for Revenue
  • Cerberus’s Feinberg Switches Strategy to Shake Up German Banking
  • Mattel Drops on Report That It Rebuffed Approach From Hasbro
  • New SUVs at Peugeot, Ford Offset U.K. Drag on Europe Car Sales
  • Google Sued for Using ‘Bait and Switch’ to Hook Minority Hires
  • Santos Seen Luring More Bids After Rejecting $7.2 Billion Offer
  • AT&T’s Clash With America Movil Slows Nafta Telecom Talks
  • Mobileye’s $15 Billion Deal Masks Drop in Israel Tech M&A
  • Mugabe’s Refusal to Resign Is Said to Stall Zimbabwe Transition

In Asian markets, a modest uptick in US stock index futures helped the Nikkei 225 stem some of its recent losses, with financials and retailers leading the way; as a result, he Japanese blue-chip index closed up 1.5%. The ASX (+0.2%) also managed to shake off its early losses, last closing up, with the energy sector outperforming (although this was on the back of confirmation of a rebuffed Santos takeover offer) as consumer staples and utilities weighed. Chinese stocks edged lower, while the Hang Seng moved higher Treasuries operated in a narrow range throughout the APac session, while JGBs were relatively listless, with a solid 20-year auction the highlight of the session. Aussie bond yields moved to session highs in the wake of the aforementioned labour market release, where they consolidated.

In European markets, equities kicked off the session on the front-foot in a continuation of some of the sentiment seen overnight during Asia-Pac trade (Nikkei 225 +1.5%). Some slight underperformance has been observed in the FTSE 100 with gains capped by a slew of ex-dividends which have trimmed 14.56 points off the index. Notable ex-dividends include both of Royal Dutch Shell’s listings, with the oil-heavyweight subsequently hampering the energy sector as WTI and Brent crude have failed to make any meaningful recovery from Thursday’s losses. Elsewhere, the likes of Fiat Chrysler (+2.5%) and Volkswagen (+2.4%) have been giving a help hand by the latest EU new car registration data. In fixed income, a limited reaction to better than forecast UK consumption data, and clear reservations about retail activity over the key Xmas and New Year period based on bleaker signals from anecdotal surveys and non-ONS data. Hence, Gilts dipped to 124.72 (-15 ticks vs +8 ticks at best), while the Short Sterling strip reversed pre-data gains to stand flat to only 1 ticks adrift before stabilising again. In truth, core bonds were already on the retreat from early highs (ie Bunds down to 162.43 vs 162.71 at best) in what appears to be a broad  retracement within recent ranges rather than anything more meaningful.

 

In FX, GBP has once again been a key source of focus with GBP/USD hit early doors amid reports in Politico that the EU are leaning towards rejecting the UK’s request for a bespoke trade deal. However, sentiment saw a mild recovery after reports in the Sun suggested that PM May could be on the cusp of upping her Brexit settlement offer in an attempt to kick-start trade talks. The main data release of the session thus far came in the form of UK retail sales which painted a less dreary picture of the UK economy than some had feared, although gains were short-lived as Brexit remains the focus. Marginal sterling buying was seen in EUR/GBP, trading around session lows, helped by a stop hunt through yesterday’s lows. Cable too saw a bid later in the session, benefiting from the weaker USD. Elsewhere, EUR/USD is back below 1.1800 vs the USD after topping out just ahead of October’s 1.1880 high, and now in a fresh albeit higher range flanked by big option expiries between 1.1795-1.1800 (913mln) and 1.1815-25 (4.8bln). Another roller-coaster ride for the Antipodeans, with AUD choppy on mixed labour data (headline count miss, but jobless rate and full employment upbeat) and pivoting the 0.7600 handle vs the USD.

In the commodities complex, as mentioned above, WTI and Brent crude futures have failed to make any noteworthy recovery from the sell-off seen on Tuesday with energy newsflow particularly light during today’s session thus far with markets looking ahead to the November 30th OPEC meeting which is set to give nations the instruction to extend oil production cuts. In metals markets, gold prices have traded in a relatively similar manner with prices unable to be granted any reprieve from their latest tumble. Elsewhere, Nickel and Copper have been weighed on, sending prices to multi-week lows as concerns around Chinese growth prospects continue to linger.

Looking at the day ahead, weekly initial jobless claims, Philly Fed PMI for November, import price index for October, industrial production for October and NAHB housing market index for November will be released. The BoE Carney’s, Broadbent and Haldane will all participate at a public plenary session while the ECB’s Villeroy de Galhau and Constancio are due to speak, along with the Fed’s Williams, Mester and Kaplan.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Nov. 11, est. 235k (prior 239k); Continuing Claims, Nov. 4, est. 1900k (prior 1901k)
  • 8:30am: U.S. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, Nov., est. 24.6 (prior 27.9)
  • 8:30am: U.S. Import Price Index MoM, Oct., est. 0.4% (prior 0.7%); U.S. Export Price Index MoM, Oct., est. 0.4% (prior 0.8%);
  • 9:15am: U.S. Industrial Production MoM, Oct., est. 0.5% (prior 0.3%); Capacity Utilization, Oct., est. 76.3% (prior 76.0%)
  • 9:15am: U.S. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Nov. 12, no est. (prior 51.5); Economic Expectations, Nov., no est. (prior 47.5)

Central Bank speakers:

  • 9:10am: Fed’s Mester delivers keynote address at Cato Conference
  • 1:10pm: Fed’s Kaplan speaks to CFA society in Houston
  • 3:00pm: ECB’s Constancio speaks in Ottawa
  • 3:45pm: Fed’s Brainard delivers keynote at OFR FinTech Conference
  • 4:45pm: Fed’s Williams speaks at Asia Economic Policy Conference

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

There has been a lot of noise around the HY market in the past week or so as a combination of macro factors along with some notable earnings misses have weighed on the market. iTraxx Crossover and CDX HY have widened by around 25bps and 30bps respectively from their most recent tights, while the price level of the largest USD HY ETF (HYG US) is basically back to the same level as where it started the year, however this overstates the move in the US cash market and even more so in Europe. Looking in more detail at the cash market US HY has widened by around 60bps and EUR HY is 46bps wider from the  recent cycle tights only a few weeks back but both are still around 25bps and 100bps tighter on the year respectively.

In a broad historic context the recent moves hardly register but in the context of a year that has been headlined by extremely low levels of volatility they are certainly significant. For EUR HY there were two other periods where we saw some sort of correction this year. In March/April (ahead of the French elections) the index widened 27bps in 42 days and then in August/September (after the North Korean escalation) we saw a 29bps widening over 30 days. So the current 46bps of widening in just 12 days has been somewhat more aggressive than anything else we’ve seen this year.

Looking at similar data for the US we have also seen two previous corrections. In March spreads widened 61bps in 20 days and then in July/August we saw 45bps of widening in 15 days. So the current c.60bps widening over 22 days is actually of a similar magnitude to this year’s previous corrections. The moves look even more stark when we focus on single-Bs though. EUR single-Bs have widened by more than 100bps from the most recent tights, more than halving the YTD tightening we had seen. For USD single-Bs the recent widening (65bps) has actually reversed more than 80% of the YTD spread tightening we had seen to the recent tights.

The question from here is whether this recent back-up in spreads is simply going to lead to a fresh buying opportunity or whether it will lead to something more significant. Despite some of the recent profit warnings we think that it is more likely to be the former at the moment. But at the very least the pace of this turn around highlights how quickly market sentiment can change, especially when spreads are so tight. HY was looking very very stretched relative to IG in Europe and this corrects some of that. Overall it certainly provides us with some food for thought as we look to publish our 2018 outlook in the next 10 days.

Even though US HY has been one of the weaker markets of late there’s no doubt that the recent global equity sell off has struggled to gather momentum as the US session has progressed over the last week. Following through on this, Asia has been weak since the Nikkei sudden sell-off last week and Europe has followed with yesterday seeing the 7th successive daily fall in the Stoxx 600 (-0.49%) – the longest losing streak since October/November 2016. Meanwhile yesterday the US (S&P 500 -0.55%) again closed off the early session lows showing that this equity sell-off isn’t really being US led. For the record since last Wednesday’s close the S&P 500, Stoxx 600 and Nikkei are down -1.15%, -3.17% and -3.86% respectively which helps illustrate this.

Volatility has been on the way up though even in the US over this period. The VIX spiked to 14.51 intraday which was the highest since August 18th. It closed at 13.13 (+13%) which is still the highest since the same period. Meanwhile the VSTOXX index was up +2.25% and is now at the highest level since early September.

This morning in Asia, markets have stemmed losses and are trading higher. The Nikkei (+1.24%), Kospi (+0.52%), Hang Seng (+0.53%) and ASX 200 (+0.30%) are all up as we type. WTI oil is trading marginally higher and after the bell in the US, Cisco was up c6% after guiding to its first revenue gain in eight quarters.

On now to the big data of the yesterday and possibly the month. US Core CPI inflation surprised modestly to the upside in October, rising 0.225% in month-on-month terms (a firmer 0.2% print than DB expected). This raised the year-overyear rate to 1.8% (1.7% expected). The data provide additional evidence that the core inflation trend is firming after a string of very weak prints earlier this year. According to our economists, the three-month annualised change in core CPI inflation is now at 2.4%, the strongest since February 2017. We think inflation is turning a corner and regular consistent misses vs expectations will not be a feature of markets in 2018.

Staying in the US, the House’s version of the tax plan is reportedly on track for a vote on Thursday (local time). In terms of the Senate’s version, rhetoric appears to be heating up as the mark up process continues. The Democrats were reportedly not impressed with the last minute change to add in the repeal of the Obamacare individual mandate, to which Republican Senator Collins partly agrees on, noting that it “gravely complicated our efforts to combine tax reform and changes”, although she has not decided whether to vote against the bill or not. Elsewhere, Republican Senator Johnson has publicly confirmed that he is opposed to the revised GOP plan as it stands, in part as it does not do enough to help partnerships relative to the larger tax cuts for corporates.

Quickly recapping other markets performance from yesterday. Bond markets were firmer with core bond yields down 2-5bp (UST 10y -5bp; Bunds -2.1bp; Gilts -3.5bp) while peripherals underperformed with Portugal bonds leading the softness (+2.5bp). Key currencies were little changed, with US dollar index marginally higher, while Euro dipped -0.06% but Sterling rose 0.05%. In commodities, WTI oil fell another -0.70% (-3.2% for the week), in part following reports that Russia believes it’s too early to announce a potential extension of production cuts at OPEC’s meeting at end of the month. Notably, WTI is still up c18% from late August. Elsewhere, precious metals softened a little (Gold -0.16%; Silver -0.14%) and other base industrial metals were little changed (Copper -0.45%; Zinc -0.54%; Aluminium +0.36%).

Away from the markets, there were a deluge of Fed and ECB central bankers commentaries yesterday but overall contained minimal market moving information. In the details, the Fed’s Evans noted he was open-minded regarding policy action at the December FOMC ahead of discussions with fellow colleagues and sounded dovish on inflation, noting “I feel we are facing below target inflations” while reiterating the US labour market is “vibrant” and unemployment rate “could go below 4%”.

In Europe, the ECB’s Hansson was upbeat on the demand side of the economy and “feel more confident that inflation will eventually reach the levels consistent with our aim”. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Praet pointed to the importance of interest rates post QE, noting that “policy rates will eventually regain their status as the main instrument of policy, and our forward guidance will revert to a singular approach”. Finally, the ECB’s Coeure noted that it’s important for the ECB “to ensure that our own measures do not adversely affect the intermediation capacity of repo markets”.

Over in China yesterday, there were more signs that the government may tolerate slower economic growth in 2018. The Economic Daily reported that the deputy head of the Research Office of the State Council Ms Han has flagged that GDP growth at 6.3% in 2018-2020 would be sufficient to achieve the Party’s 2020 growth target. As a reminder, our Chinese economists expect GDP growth to slow to 6.3% yoy by 1Q.

Finally, over in Zimbabwe, President Mugabe’s c40 years of power may be coming to an end with Bloomberg reporting the 93 year old was confined to his home, with military forces taking control of state owned  media outlets and sealing offthe parliament and central bank’s offices.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the core retail sales for October (ex-auto & gas) was in line at 0.3% mom, but with the prior reading upwardly revised by 0.1ppt. Elsewhere, the September business inventories was flat and in line for the month. Finally, the November empire manufacturing index fell from a c3 year high of 30.2 to a still solid reading of 19.4. After the recent economic data, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate of 4Q GDP growth has edged 0.1pp lower to 3.2% saar.

In the UK, the September unemployment rate was in line and steady at 4.3% – still at a 42 year low, while the average weekly earnings remains low but was slightly above expectations at 2.2% yoy (vs. 2.1% expected). Elsewhere, jobless claims (1.1k vs. 1.7k previous) and claimant count rate (2.3% vs. same as previous) were broadly similar to prior readings. The Eurozone’s September trade surplus widened to EUR$25bln (vs. EUR$21bln expected), while the final reading for France’s October CPI was unrevised at 0.1% mom and 1.2% yoy.

Looking at the day ahead, the final October CPI report for the Euro area will be out. UK retail sales data for October and Q3 employment data for France will also be released. In the US weekly initial jobless claims, Philly Fed PMI for November, import price index for October, industrial production for October and NAHB housing market index for November will be released. The BoE Carney’s, Broadbent and Haldane will all participate at a public plenary session while the ECB’s Villeroy de Galhau and Constancio are due to speak, along with the Fed’s Williams, Mester and Kaplan.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 3.27 points or .10% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 167.07 pts or 0.58% / The Nikkei closed UP 322.80 POINTS OR 1.47%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.19%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.6320/Oil DOWN to 55.27 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.62 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6320. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WEAKER TO THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.638 //ONSHORE YUAN WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE WEAKER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS STRONGER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS OT  VERY HAPPY TODAY.

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

NORTH KOREA/USA

 

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3c CHINA REPORT.

 

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

And this guy is deputy Governor of the Bank of England?

(courtesy zerohedge)

BoE Deputy Governor Gives Crazy Speech Warning Markets Have Underestimated Rate Rises

On 2 November 2017, the Bank of England raised rates for the first time in a decade and Sterling’s initial rise was promptly sold off by forex traders as we discussed.

The 7-2 vote by the Monetary Policy Committee was not the unanimous decision some had expected, while Cunliffe and Ramsden saw insufficient evidence that wage growth would pick up in line with the BoE’s projections from just over 2% to 3% in a year’s time. Ben Broadbent, MPC member, deputy governor and known to be a close confidant of Governor Carney, gave a speech today at the London School of Economics (LSE) in which he warned markets that Brexit issues didn’t necessarily mean that interest rates have to remain low.

Bloomberg reports that Broadbent stated that the Brexit impact on monetary policy depends on how it affects demand, supply and the exchange rate.

“There are feasible combinations of the three that might require looser policy, others that lead to tighter policy.”

Which sounds alot like he doesn’t know, although he stuck to the central bankers trusty tool, reassuring LSE students the Phillips Curve “still seems to have a slope”.

According to the FT.

The deputy governor of the Bank of England has warned that financial markets have underestimated the chance of further interest rate rises. In a speech at the London School of Economics on Wednesday, Ben Broadbent said markets had placed too much emphasis on the idea that interest rates needed to be kept low in the face of Brexit uncertainty. The deputy governor said it was “uncertain” and “complex” to anticipate how Brexit would affect inflation. But he rejected the assertion that Brexit “necessarily implies low interest rates”.

 

“Even as inflation rose, and the rate of unemployment fell further, interest-rate markets continued to under-weight the possibility that (the) bank rate might actually go up this year,” he said.

 

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee announced its first interest rate rise in more than a decade earlier this month. But the central bank has struggled to convince financial markets that it is likely to raise rates further.

 

BoE officials were taken aback when sterling sold off on the day it announced the rate rise, and two-year gilt yields remain below the BoE base rate, suggesting markets are sceptical that the MPC will raise rates further while there is still considerable uncertainty around the UK’s economic future outside of the EU.

Broadbent acknowledged that there is a risk that Brexit uncertainty could adversely impact UK demand. However, he sees the potential for other factors, a reduction in trade, for example, which could crimp UK capacity and necessitate a rise in rates. While Broadbent’s thinking is flawed, and his barley field example plainly ridiculous, the FT continues.

Brexit-related uncertainty could weigh on demand and motivate the MPC to keep interest rates low to support the economy, but other factors could push the central bank to raise rates.

 

For example, if Brexit reduced the UK’s openness to trade, the country’s output capacity could suffer, which would require the BoE to raise rates to temper inflation.

 

“Economists often presume that changes in an economy’s underlying productivity occur only slowly,” Mr Broadbent said. However, he added: “A sharp reduction in the degree of openness (to trade) could have a more immediate impact. “A field currently producing barley, sold into the European market, can’t easily or as fruitfully be replanted with olive trees”. He said the challenge for monetary policymakers was that “reductions in supply can add inflationary pressure even as they lower aggregate (gross domestic product)”.

So, let’s consider Broadbent’s example…

The UK suffers a drop in aggregate demand due to a contraction in trade, the BoE raises rates in an over-leveraged economy to stem the inflation and…undoubtedly makes the contraction in GDP much worse. That makes no sense and is the kind of one dimensional thinking that we’ve had to put up with from central bankers. What’s worse is that Broadbent has specific responsibility for monetary policy and a c.v. as long as your arm – Cambridge, Harvard PhD, Fulbright Scholar, Columbia University, Goldman Sachs and UK Treasury.

It’s no wonder we are in such a mess with people like this pulling the levers of policy in the central banks. Crazy ideas aside, Broadbent and his BoE colleagues might be unhappy with market projections for the future path of interest rates, but they can hardly blame investors for being sceptical.

Which way are rates going, Ben?

 

END

5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

SAUDI ARABIA

 Brandon Smith warns that the Saudi coup signals war and an end to the USA petrodollar and a New World Order reset.  He may be right as he contends that this is what the globalists are seeking
(courtesy Brandon Smith/Alt Market.com)

Brandon Smith Warns: The Saudi Coup Signals War And The New World Order Reset

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

For years now, I have been warning about the relationship of interdependency between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia and how this relationship, if ended, would mean disaster for the petrodollar system and by extension the dollar’s world reserve status.

In my recent articles ‘Lies And Distractions Surrounding The Diminishing Petrodollar’ and ‘The Economic End Game Continues,’I point out that the death of the dollar as the premier petrocurrency is actually a primary goal for establishment globalists.

Why?

Because in an effort to achieve what they sometimes call the “global economic reset,” or the “new world order,” a more publicly accepted centralized global economy and monetary framework is paramount. And, this means the eventual implementation of a single world currency and a single global economic and political authority above and beyond the dollar system.

But, it is not enough to simply initiate such socially and fiscally painful changes in a vacuum. The banking powers are not interested in taking any blame for the suffering that would be dealt to the masses during the inevitable upheaval (or blame for the suffering that has already been caused). Therefore, a believable narrative must be crafted. A narrative in which political intrigue and geopolitical crisis make the “new world order” a NECESSITY; one that the general public would accept or even demand as a solution to existing instability and disaster.

That is to say, the globalists must fashion a propaganda story to be used in the future, in which “selfish” nation-states abused their sovereignty and created conditions for calamity, and the only solution was to end that sovereignty and place all power into the hands of a select few “wise and benevolent men” for the greater good of the world.

I believe the next phase of the global economic reset will begin in part with the breaking of petrodollar dominance. An important element of my analysis on the strategic shift away from the petrodollar has been the symbiosis between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has been the single most important key to the dollar remaining as the petrocurrency from the very beginning.

The very first oil exploration and extraction deal in Saudi Arabia was sought by the vast international oil cartels of Royal Dutch Shell, Near East Development Company, Anglo-Persian, etc., but eventually fell into the hands of none other than the Rockefeller’s Standard Oil Company. The dark history of Standard Oil aside, this meant that Saudi business would be handled primarily by American interests. And the Western thirst for oil, especially after World War I, would etch our relationship with the reigning monarchy in stone.

A founding member of OPEC, Saudi Arabia was one of the few primary oil-producing nations that maintained an oil pipeline that expedited processing and bypassed the Suez Canal. (The pipeline was shut down, however, in 1983). This allowed Standard Oil and the United States to tiptoe around the internal instability of Egypt, which had experienced ongoing conflict which finally culminated in the civil war of 1952.

Considered puppets of the British Empire at the time, the ruling elites of Egypt were toppled by the Muslim Brotherhood, leading to the eventual demise of the British pound sterling as the top petro-currency and the world reserve. The British economy faltered and has never since returned to its former glory.

Perhaps we are seeing some parallels here?

Civil war may not be in the cards for Saudi Arabia; so far a quiet coup has been rather effective in completely changing the power base of the nation over the past few years. The primary beneficiary of that change in power has been crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman, who only answers to King Salman, an 81-year-old ruler barely involved in leadership.

To understand how drastic this coup has been, consider this – for decades Saudi Kings maintained political balance by doling out vital power positions to separate, carefully chosen successors. Positions such as Defense Minister, the Interior Ministry and the head of the National Guard. Today, Mohammed Bin Salman controls all three positions. Foreign policy, defense matters, oil and economic decisions and social changes are now all in the hands of one man.

But the real question is, who is behind that man?

Well, the recent political purge of various “neo-conservative” tied Saudis might lead some to believe that Prince Mohammed is seeking an end to globalist control of Saudi oil and politics.

These people would be wrong for a number of reasons.

Prince Mohammed’s revolutionary “Vision for 2030” developed as he entered power was touted as a means to end Saudi reliance on oil revenues to support economic stability. However, I believe this plan is NOT about ending reliance on oil, but ending reliance on the U.S. dollar. In fact, the plan indicates a move away from the dollar as the world’s petrocurrency and a de-pegging of the Riyal from the dollar.

Prince Mohammed has also established much deeper ties to Russia and China, creating bilateral agreements which may end up removing the dollar as the mechanism for oil trade between the nations.

You would think that this kind of strategy would be highly damaging to the West and to American interests in particular and that the corporate establishment would be doing everything in their power to stop it. However, this is not at all the case. In reality, the globalist establishment is fully behind Mohammed Bin Sulman’s “Vision for 2030.”

Corporate behemoths such as the Carlyle Group (Bush family, etc), Goldman SachsBlackstone and Blackrock have ALL been backing the Vision for 2030 and Prince Mohammed through his Public Investment Fund (PIF), of which he is the chairman.

Trillions in capital are flowing through PIF, most of it from the coffers of globalist establishment companies. Once again I point out that the so-called “East versus West division” and the Eastern “opposition” to the globalists is complete nonsense; banking elites and globalists are the true influence behind the move away from the dollar, as the Saudi example and the Vision for 2030 shows. The end of the dollar as world reserve works in their favor — it is planned.

This does not end with the death of the dollar’s petro-status, though. These kinds of upsets in the power dynamic invariably lead to war. War acts as a kind of cleansing of the historical record; it tends to distract the public, for generations, from those that truly benefit from geopolitical and economic strife.

Prince Mohammed has already triggered conflicts with Yemen and Qatar, but this seems to have only been a precursor to greater kinetic displays of force. The next target appears to be Lebanon, and eventually Iran and Syria.

The first signal came with the resignation of Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Hariri on November 4, a resignation Hezbollah claims was forced by the Saudi government. Interestingly, Saad Hariri recorded the televised announcement in Saudi Arabia.

This shocking disruption to Lebanon’s political apparatus has been followed by an escalation in saber rattling by Saudi Arabia against Hezbollah (which is considered by many to be merely a puppet organization of the Iranian government). If official polls are to be believed, the Lebanese population is in extreme disagreement over Iran and Hezbollah, which could add to internal divisions and civil war if tensions continue to grow. Add to this the suspected (but officially denied) “secret visit” by Prince Mohammed to Israel in September, and the newfound “friendship” between the two nations in the months since, and we have quite a bit of momentum for a war in Lebanon.

The question is, will a war between Saudi Arabia and perhaps Israel against Hezbollah in Lebanon remain a proxy war, or will it gestate into a wider conflict drawing in Iran, Syria and perhaps even the U.S.?

First, keep in mind that Prince Mohammed has already frozen and/or confiscated approximately $800 billion in assets from his imprisoned political enemies. More than enough to fund a war campaign for several years, maybe even an expanded war against Iran.

Trump’s rhetoric against Iran and his re-institution of sanctions seems to coincide nicely with the increasing tension between the Saudis and Hezbollah. Israel attempted an invasion of Lebanon in 2006 and was soundly and embarrassingly defeated. But, the Israeli government does still showcase a willingness to enter into a ground war in the region, and with the combined forces of the Saudis and the Israelis, we might see a different outcome. Iran would be forced to intervene.

Syria under the Assad regime would also most likely be drawn in through its mutual defense pact with Iran.

I believe that major powers like the U.S. and Russia will probably not become involved in a wider sense, but continue to insert covert forces into the region and support opposing nations through funding and armaments. As with North Korea, I would not expect “world war” on the scale of a nuclear conflagration to develop in the Middle East.

What I do expect is something far more devastating – namely an accelerated disintegration of our already collapsing economic structure as war plays out abroad and the loss of the dollar’s world reserve and petro-status hits us hard at home. So far, in my view it appears that the insanity in Saudi Arabia, (along with the continued war drums against North Korea), is a perfect trigger point that provides a catalyst for mass distraction.

World economic war is the real name of the game here, as the globalists play puppeteers to East and West. It is a geopolitical crisis they will have created to engineer public support for a solution they predetermined.

END

Seems to be working:  Saudi Arabia has offered the arrested royals a deal:  Lots of cash (up to 70% of net worth) for your freedom

It is now clear:  the whole exercise was nothing but to replenish the treasury

(courtesy zerohedge_

Saudi Arabia Offers Arrested Royals A Deal: Your Freedom For Lots Of Cash

As we noted shortly after the Crown Prince’s purge of potential rivals within Saudi Arabia’s sprawling ruling family, while the dozens of arrests were made under the pretext of an “anti-corruption crackdown”, Mohammed bin Salman’s ulterior motive was something else entirely: Replenishing the Kingdom’s depleted foreign reserves, which have been hammered for the past three years by low oil prices, with some estimating that the current purge could potentially bring in up to $800 billion in proceeds.

Furthermore, the geopolitical turmoil unleashed by the unprecedented crackdown helped push oil prices higher, creating an ancillary benefit for both the kingdom’s rulers and the upcoming IPO of Aramco.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman

And, in the latest confirmation that the crackdown was all about cash, the Financial Times reports today that the Saudi government has offered the new occupants of the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton a way out…. and it’s going to cost them: In some cases, as much as 70% of their net worth.

Saudi authorities are negotiating settlements with princes and businessmen held over allegations of corruption, offering deals for the detainees to pay for their freedom, people briefed on the discussions say.

 

In some cases the government is seeking to appropriate as much as 70 per cent of suspects’ wealth, two of the people said, in a bid to channel hundreds of billions of dollars into depleted state coffers.

 

The arrangements, which have already seen some assets and funds handed over to the state, provide an insight into the strategy behind Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s dramatic corruption purge.

The crackdown has led to the detention of hundreds of royals, ministers, officals and the country’s richest oligarchs including Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, the billionaire, Waleed al-Ibrahim, the founder of Middle East Broadcasting Center, which owns Al Arabiya, the Saudi satellite television channel, and Bakr bin Laden, chairman of the Saudi Binladin construction group and brother of Osama bin Laden.

Additionally, as we reported, the crackdown sent members of the country’s wealthy upper crust scrambling to liquidate their holdings and move their cash offshore, where they might have a better chance of keeping it away from the Saudi government.

Unsurprisingly, the Saudi “offer” is working.

Some of the suspects, most of whom have been rounded up at the Ritz-Carlton hotel in Riyadh since last week, are keen to secure their release by signing over cash and corporate assets, the FT’s sources say.

“They are making settlements with most of those in the Ritz,” said one adviser. “Cough up the cash and you will go home.” 

 

One multi-billionaire businessman held at the Ritz-Carlton has been told to hand over 70% of his wealth to the state as a punishment for decades of involvement in allegedly corrupt business transactions. He wants to pay, but has yet to work out the details of transferring those assets to the Saudi state.

Settlements for royals will also include pledges of loyalty as MbS prepares himself to take the Saudi throne, though his father, King Salman, has vigorously denied these rumors.

One detainee told his staff that the authorities may be looking to take ownership of his main business. Families of detained suspects have started to hire consultants to assist efforts to secure their relatives’ release and to ring fence the damage to their business interests.

“They are looking for ways to isolate the tainted shareholder and keep the business going,” said the adviser.

The settlements aim to recover billions of dollars allegedly earned through “corruption” at a time when the government is grappling with a recession triggered by prolonged low oil prices and a budget deficit that widened to $79 billion last year.

The country’s attorney-general has said he is investigating allegations of corruption amounting to at least $100 billion – though the total value of assets seized could be as high as $800 billion. Though the Financial Times puts the high-end figure at a relatively modest $300 billion; to make up for the delta, more arrests are still expected.

Regular Saudis, who’ve seen their benefits cut and some of their jobs taken away, support MbS’s decision.  “Why should the poor take all the pain of austerity,” said one Saudi academic. “The rich need to pay their way too.”

In Saudi Arabia, they are about to do just that.

end

Documents surface which indicate that Israel is ready to share intelligence with the Saudis against Iran. The key component is an understanding that the Saudi’s will agree that refugees cannot return to Palestinian land in return for a lasting peace with Israel.  Israel and Saudi Arabia must stop the formation of two Shia crescents:
i. from Lebanon to Iran
ii) from the Gulf  to the Red Sea
 (courtesy zerohedge)

Israel Ready To Share Intelligence With Saudis “Against Iran” Ahead Of Possible War

This morning one of Israel’s largest international news broadcasters broke an explosive yet not entirely surprising story that Israel would take the unprecedented step of sharing intelligence with Saudi Arabia as both countries continue to ramp up efforts to curb what they perceive as Iranian expansion in the region.


Left: Israeli PM Netanyahu, Right: Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman

Israel’s i24NEWS cited statements by the head of the Israeli army given to a prominent Saudia Arabian newspaper on Thursday:

In an unprecedented interview with Saudi Arabia’s Alaf newspaper on Thursday, Israel Defense Force (IDF) chief-of-staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot said that Israel is ready to share intelligence with Riyadh on their shared arch-foe Iran.

 

Eizenkot, who is the first senior Israeli military officer to be interviewed by a Saudi media outlet, called Iran the “biggest threat to the region” and said that Israel and Riyadh – which he noted have never fought one another – are in complete agreement about Iran’s intentions to dominate the Middle East.

The report continues, quoting the IDF chief:

The interview is a major public step forward in warming ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia – which do not share any diplomatic relations.

 

Eizenkot said that Iran wants to take control of the Middle East by creating two Shi’ite crescent, “from Lebanon to Iran and then from the Gulf to the Red Sea.”

 

“We must prevent this from happening,” he implored.

 

He said that Israel has no intention of initiating a conflict with Iran’s Lebanese proxy Hezbollah, saying that “we see Iranian attempts at bringing about an escalation, but I don’t see a high chance for this at the moment.”

The historic news, which is worrisome for the fact that it could bring the region closer to major war, follows last week’s leak of an Israeli diplomatic cable sent to all Israeli embassies throughout the world which reveals Israeli and Saudi behind the scenes coordination. The cable gave instructions to Israeli diplomats to express support for the Saudi war against Shia forces in Yemen and also urged embassies to aggressively lobby their host governments to take steps toward pushing Hezbollah out of Lebanon.

We summarized the now confirmed leaked document as follows:

  • On Sunday, just after Lebanese PM Hariri’s shocking resignation, Israel sent a cable to all of its embassies with the request that its diplomats do everything possible to ramp up diplomatic pressure against Hezbollah and Iran.
  • The cable urged support for Saudi Arabia’s war against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.
  • The cable stressed that Iran was engaged in “regional subversion”. 
  • Israeli diplomats were urged to appeal to the “highest officials” within their host countries to attempt to expel Hezbollah from Lebanese government and politics. 

1 \ I published on channel 10 a cable sent to Israeli diplomats asking to lobby for Saudis\Hariri &against Hezbollah http://news.nana10.co.il/Article/?ArticleID=1272790&sid=126 

האיום האיראני: ישראל מיישרת קו עם סעודיה נגד מעורבות טהראן וחיזבאללה בלבנון

משרד החוץ שיגר מברק הנחיות לכל שגרירויות ישראל בו התבקשו לפעול נגד המעורבות של חיזבאללה ואיראן במערכת הפוליטית בלבנון

news.nana10.co.il

And this week, another leaked document emerged, first obtained by Lebanon’s Al-Akhbar news, which reveals, according to regional media, “concessions to Israel that are certain to prove controversial in Palestine and the Arab world if true, including Saudi encouragement of the Palestinians to cede the right of return of their refugees, in return for a peace deal with Israel and closer cooperation with Tel Aviv against Iran and Hizballah.”

The ‘secret’ document is reportedly from the Saudi foreign ministry and provides further proof that Israel and Saudi Arabia – who for decades have been long time public bitter enemies – are increasingly cementing and formalizing their relationship while talking war with Iran and Hezbollah. According to a translation provided by The New Arab, the leaked Saudi foreign ministry document reads in part as follows:

“I have the honour to submit to you a project for establishing relations between the kingdom and the State of Israel based on the strategic partnership agreement with the United States of America, discussed with the US Secretary of State based on the guidance of your noble guidance,” opens the letter. 

 

“Saudi Arabia…. has immense influence and diplomatic power that can give credibility to peace efforts,” the alleged letter continues.

 

“The kingdom had pledged in the strategic partnership agreement with US President Donald Trump that only a US-Saudi effort (for peace) is the key to success as… no solution to the Palestinian issue can be legitimate without the support of Saudi Arabia.

 

“Rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel carries risks... given the spiritual, historical, and religious status of the Palestinian issue. The kingdom cannot risk this move unless it feels the US is honest about its efforts against Iran, which destabilizes the region.”

The more explosive passage of the secret Saudi document concerns Iran, and comes at the end of the memo, to wit: “Resolving this conflict will pave the way for security, commercial, and financial cooperation against Iran. Therefore, the Saudi and Israeli sides have the following (goals) in common:

  • Confronting any activities that serve the aggressive policies of Iran in the Middle East.
  • Increasing US and international sanctions over Iran’s ballistic missile programme
  • Increasing sanctions over Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism around the world.
  • Lobbying the 5+1 group over their position on the nuclear deal with Iran to ensure its strict implementation
  • Limiting Iranian access to frozen assets, and capitalizing on Iran’s economic problems to increase pressure on the regime
  • Intelligence cooperation against organised crime and drug trafficking supported by Iran and Hizbollah”

All of the above is yet further confirmation of the already well-known Saudi and Israeli common cause against perceived Iranian influence and expansion in places like Syria, Lebanon and Iraq of late. This has led the historic bitter enemies down a pragmatic path of unspoken cooperation as both seem to have placed the break up of the so-called “Shia crescent” as their primary policy goal in the region. For Israel, Hezbollah has long been its greatest foe, which Israeli leaders see as an extension of Iran’s territorial presence right up against the Jewish state’s northern border.

All of this this comes, perhaps not coincidentally, at the very moment ISIS is on the verge of complete annihilation (partly at the hands of Hezbollah), and as both Israel and Saudi Arabia have of late increasingly declared “red lines” concerning perceived Iranian influence across the region as well as broad Hezbollah acceptance and popularity within Lebanon.

end

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

 

Zimbabwe

 

Mugabe refuses to resign which in turn causes their stock market to collapse

(courtesy zerohedge)

7.OIL ISSUES

 

Somehow Norway now does not believe oil will rise in the next few years:  They are planning a divestiture of 35 billion in oil stocks.

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

 

Now the fun begins as underwriters of credit default swaps must pay out and there will be a considerable amount that they have to muster up:

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Venezuela, PDVSA CDS Triggered: ISDA Says Credit Event Has Occurred

In a long overdue, and not exactly surprising decision, moments ago the ISDA Determination Committee decided, after punting for three days in a row, that a Failure to Pay Credit Event has occurred with respect to both the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela as well as Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A.

Specifically, in today’s determination, in response to the question whether a “Failure to Pay Credit Event occurred with respect to Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A.?” ISDA said that the Determinations Committee voted 15 to 0 that a failure to pay credit event had occurred with respect to PDVSA.

ISDA said the DC also voted 15 to 0 that date of credit event was Nov. 13 and that the potential failure to pay occurred on Oct. 12. ISDA also announced that the DC agreed to reconvene Nov. 20 to continue talks regarding the CDS auction, now that the Credit Default Swaps have been triggered.

Over the past week, all three rating agencies, with Fitch Ratings most recently, declared PDVSA in default, citing the state oil company’s repeated payment delays. The oil company failed to pay yet another $80 million in interest that was due in mid-October on bonds maturing in 2027, and whose buffer period expired over the weekend. Venezuela was declared in default by S&P Global ratings for a similar issue. According to Bloomberg, Fitch said that it expects PDVSA’s creditors to recover as little as 31 percent on their investment.

The panel will now meet next week to discuss whether to hold an auction to set the rate at which the CDS will pay out. When credit swaps are triggered, buyers of the contracts have their losses covered by the counterparties that sold them the insurance-like derivatives.

As recently as last month, traders had bought a net $250 million of default protection through the swaps market, according to the ISDA. Of course, with the PDVSA CDS already trading at a price which implied 100% certainty of default, none of this will be a surprise.

* * *

And moments after declaring PDVSA CDS triggered by a failure to pay event, the ISDA Americas DC also found that an identical Failure to Pay Credit Event had occurred with respect to Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.  The Determinations Committee voted 15 to 0 that a failure to pay credit event had occurred with respect to Venezuela, and added that the Determinations Committee voted 15 to 0 to reconvene Nov. 20 to continue talks on an auction.

Just like with PDVSA, the CDS triggering has been fully priced in.

The only question now is when the CDS auction will be, whether it will proceed smoothly and who is revealed as the biggest seller of Venezuela and PDVSA CDS.

END

At 5:30 pm est, Bitcoin surges near $8,000.00 on the announcement of a credit event and bankers must pay out:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1766 DOWN .0015/ REACTING TO SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/ /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES GREEN

USA/JAPAN YEN 113.14 UP 0.385(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/

GBP/USA 1.3187 UP .0016 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS/MAY IN TROUBLE WITH HER OWN PARTY/

USA/CAN 1.2755 DOWN .0012(CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 15 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1766; / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 3.27 POINTS OR .10% / Hang Sang CLOSED UP 167.07 POINTS OR 0.58% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.19% / EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN 

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED UP 322.80 POINTS OR 1.47%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 167.07 POINTS OR 0.58% / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.27 POINTS OR .10% /Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.19% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED UP 322.80 POINTS OR 1.47%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1277.75

silver:$17.05

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.359% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)

The 30 yr bond yield 2.797 UP 3 IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 93.94 UP 13 CENT(S) from YESTERDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield:1.979% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.052% UP 1/2  in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.542% DOWN 1 IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.838 UP 0 POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 29 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.376% DOWN 0 IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1771 DOWN.0012 (Euro DOWN 12 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 112.96 UP 0.201(Yen DOWN 20 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3184 UP 0.0012( POUND UP 12 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2735 DOWN.0031 Canadian dollar UP 31 Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $55.24

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN 12 to trade at 1.1771

The Yen FELL to 112.96 for a LOSS of 20 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND ROSE BY 12 basis points, trading at 1.3184/

The Canadian dollar ROSE by 31 basis points to 1.2735 WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO : $55.24

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.630
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.052% UP 1/2  IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 0 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.348% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.790 DOWN 1/2 in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.90 UP 8 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/BREAKS RESISTANCE OF 92.00

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED UP 14.33 POINTS OR 0.19%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 70.85 POINTS OR 0.55%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 35.14 POINTS OR 0.66%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 74.80 POINTS OR 0.75%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 47.72 POINTS OR 0.22%

The Dow closed UP 187.08 POINTS OR .80%  (HUGE CHINESE INJECTION OF FUNDS)

NASDAQ WAS closed UP 87.09 Points OR 1.30% 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 55.24 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 61.43 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 59.62 DOWN 60/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 60 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO +.376% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$55.25

BRENT: $61.81

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.373% (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.823%

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1771 DOWN .0011

USA/JAPANESE YEN:113.03 UP 0.277

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.91 UP 10 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3191 : UP 19 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHT

Canadian dollar: 1.2755 UP  10 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.376%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Nasdaq, Bitcoin Surge To Record Highs As China Saves The World

IP surges (thanks to hurricanes), Congress passes a tax bill that has no hope of passing the senate, but a huge Chinese liquidity injection sends stocks soaring and proves…

 

Seemingly thanks to a Risk Parity rebound…

And a huge China liquidity injection...

“The increase in cash additions will help soothe market sentiment,” said Qin Han, chief fixed-income analyst at Guotai Junan Securities Co.

And indeed it did: US equity markets soared today… (Small Caps and Trannies best, Dow and S&P lagged but up big)

 

Which sent Nasdaq back to record highs..

 

VIX was pushed back under 12 but that is well above the 10 handle when stocks last hit these highs… NOTE the weak close in S&P futs (after running stops)…

 

Stocks decoupled from bonds…

 

And Stocks decoupled from FX…

 

And Stocks even decoupled from VIX…

 

HYG (High yield bond ETF) also surged most in 8 months… NOTE it filled the last two days gaps lower…

 

Having ripped off its most oversold since March (note the perfect cymmetry with today’s move.. and what happens next)

 

Treasury yields were higher on the day… (with a notable selkloff late in the day)

 

But until the last 30 mins, the curve had drifted very modestly lower…

 

The Dollar Index drifted lower on the day – despite the yield, stock gains…

 

Gold managed very small gains on the day but WTI Crude fell lower (testing $54 handle twice)

NOTE – WTI futs are rolling to Jan 18.

 

Gold remains the best performer since Saudi unleahsed its chaos…

 

Finally, we noted that Bitcoin has ripped over 40% higher off the weekend’s lows – back to previous record highs…

 

 

end
Trading today:
(zerohedge)

Stocks Are Surging, But What Happens When Europe Closes?

Not the same shit on this different day…

The Dow is up 180 points, VIX is below 11.5, HYG is up the most in 3 months… all following China’s massive 820 billion Yuan liquidity injection.

There’s just two things…

The FX market ain’t buying it…

And nor are bonds…

So what happens when Europe closes…

end
China continues to export deflation to the rest of the world as import prices are contained despite hotter CPI and PPI
(courtesy zerohedge)

Import, Export Price Growth Slows As China-flation Slumps To 2007 Lows

Hotter than expected Core PPI and CPI prints in the last two days suggested Import Prices may also come in hot but that was not the case as the MoM rise in import prices was just 0.2% (vs +0.4% exp).

Ex-Fuel, import prices rose just 0.1% in October (with Petroleum prices up 1.7% MoM and 14.9% YoY). However that rise in petroleum import prices is notably lower than then +6.3% in September

On the export side, food prices rose 2.2% MoM as Auto prices declined 0.2% MoM.

Year-over-year however, both import and export price growth declined modestly.

 

China Import prices continue to slide as it exports deflation around the world…

This is now the lowest since 2007.

Transitory

END

Soft data Philly manufacturing index disappoints but still the hope component rebounds.  There was a considerable drop in the important jobs sector

(courtesy zerohedge)

Philly Fed Survey Disappoints But Hope Rebounds Despite Drop In Jobs

Echoing yesterday’s Empire Fed, the headline Philly Fed print was lower and disappointed expectations but the forward-looking hope-fueled outlook jumped higher.

This rise in hope comes as the number of employees and the average wo4rkweek tumble.

Prices Paid jumped once again – back near the year’s highs – and new orders rebounded from October’s slump.

This came out of nowhere:  initial jobless claims jump the most in over a year:
(courtesy zerohedge)

Initial Jobless Claims Jump Most Since 2016’s Growth Scare

Ignoring the storm-driven aberrations, this week’s 10k jump in initial jobless claims to 249k signals a notable regime shift in the labor market. For the first time since 2016’s growth scare, there are more Americans opening jobless claims than last year

In fact there are over 4% more people on initial jobless claims than this time last year…

Did the jobs market just turn?

And when claims turn, a recession follows…

After the August storms, industrial production jumps in October but still remains below 2014 peak

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Industrial Production Jumps In October – Remains Below 2014 Peak

After August’s shocking plunge in Industrial Production – assumed away as storm-related -September and now October rebounded notably MoM (+0.9% vs +0.5% exp)

as Manufacturing resurged 1.3% MoM – the most since 2010.

However, excluding the effects of the hurricanes, the index for total output advanced about 0.3 percent in October, and the index for manufacturing advanced about 0.2 percent.

In other words, the hurricanes contributed 6% of the rebound in IP… so we’re gonna need moar hurricanes!

And of course, the US equity market is well aware of this trend in Industrial Production…

Industrial Production remains 0.5% below 2014’s peak, but the Industrial Average is up 31% since then.

The house is expected to pass the GPO tax reform bill this afternoon but the less friendly senate will not affirm it

(courtesy zerohedge)

House Set To Pass GOP Tax-Reform This Afternoon

Last night, Sen. Ron Johnson surprised the GOP Senate leadership by coming out against the republican tax plan “in its current form”, the latest sign that the Republican push to pass comprehensive tax reform by New Year’s will struggle in the Senate. Still, that won’t stop the more Trump-friendly House of Representatives from passing their version of the bill, which they’re expected to do this afternoon following a meeting with the president.

While the vote totals are expected to be tight, House Speaker Paul Ryan and Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady both said the bill will likely pass, and they wouldn’t be pushing for a vote unless they had it in the bag. President Trump will visit Capitol Hill ahead of the vote to rally support, but, according to the Hill, it appears there will be little need to twist arms. All three of the House’s major Republican factions have given the bill the green light.

Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and fellow leaders have been in a buoyant mood all week, signaling they have the 217 votes needed to pass the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

And the days leading up to the vote have been relatively drama-free, as the three main House GOP factions – the far-right Freedom Caucus, conservative Republican Study Committee and moderate Tuesday Group – have either backed the bill or stayed on the sidelines.

Already, House Republicans are heralding the accomplishment as a sign that the Republicans can still get it done in Congress.

“It’s more than just a tax bill. It will show that Republicans can get things done,” said Rep. Dennis Ross (R-Fla.), a senior member of House Majority Whip Steve Scalise’s (R-La.) vote-counting operation.

In what may have helped House leaders, Trump took a step back in the process of whipping up votes (he was conveniently touring Asia when most of the heavy lifting was being done). And though Republicans credit him with “remaining engaged” with the process, some fear that he could veer off message in this afternoon’s pep talk and somehow disrupt the carefully assembled Republican coalition.

The big tax-reform vote will allow Republicans to recapture the headlines in a week that has been dominated by allegations of sexual misconduct made against Alabama GOP Senate candidate Roy Moore.

 

But there’s also a small concern among some Republicans that Trump could veer off message during his visit to the Capitol and somehow disrupt the coalition for the tax bill that GOP leaders have so carefully assembled.

Republicans – having learned from their failure to repeal Obamacare which also passed the House relatively easily – will take care not to gloat too much, as things can always unravel in the Senate.

That Senate collapse is part of the reason GOP lawmakers aren’t expecting to take a victory lap in the White House Rose Garden on Thursday like they did after the House’s successful ObamaCare repeal vote. They don’t want to be seen as celebrating prematurely before Congress can send a final tax package to Trump’s desk.

In the long run, a legislative victory in the House won’t have much impact on the bill’s long-term chances of passing, because the risk is primarily centered in the upper chamber. Furthermore, the Senate and House tax plans must eventually be reconciled and merged into a final plan that can pass both chambers before it goes to Trump to sign into law. But to get to that point, the Senate first needs to pass its own version of the bill. Johnson is a confirmed ‘No’ – his opposition stemming from his view that the bill unfairly benefits corporations over other pass-through entities like S-Corps and LLCs – but as many as seven other senators have hinted that they’re dissatisfied with the bill as it stands.

In summary, passing the House version of the plan is the easy part. House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady and Speaker Paul Ryan only needed to create a sop that would win over enough blue-state Republicans (rejecting the mortgage deduction but preserving a scaled-back version of the SALT deduction), the only intransigent faction in the Trump-friendly House.

In the Senate, the political calculus is much more complex. And with such a slim majority, Republicans can only afford to lose two votes to bring in Vice President Mike Pence for the tiebreaker.

Given the Trump administration’s legislative record to date, there’s still a chance the bill could fail in a surprise upset (there is precedent for that, of course). If that happens, the chances of passing the tax plan by year end will fall to virtually nothing.

END

The house passes the tax reform bill by 227 to 205

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

House Passes Republican Tax Reform Bill In 227 To 205 Vote

Update: The House has passed its tax reform package with a final vote of 227 yeas to 205 nays. And while the Republican leadership has ordered the caucus not to gloat about the legislative victory – possibly the biggest so far for President Trump – Paul Ryan and Co. will be able to go home to their constituents and enjoy a relaxing Thanksgiving holiday.

Their colleagues in the Senate won’t be so lucky.

Senate leaders have said they’re working with holdouts like Ron Johnson as well as lawmakers like Bob Corker who are leaning toward voting against the bill in its current form. The Senate Finance is still marking up the bill, adding amendments and making alternations, but leaders say it’ll make it to a floor vote the week after Thanksgiving.

Senators Marco Rubio and Mike Lee have wanted to see a bigger expansion of the childcare tax credit. Johnson has said more of the tax relief should go to LLCs via the pass-through rate and less generous breaks should be given to corporations.

Here’s a list of the Republicans who voted ‘nay’.

 

GOP no votes on the tax bill

 

* * *

Following a pep talk by President Donald Trump that went swimmingly according to media accounts, House Republicans are preparing to vote on their version of a tax-reform package that will slash the corporate tax rate, cut taxes for individuals and reduce the number of tax brackets.

House Republican leaders say they have the 217 votes needed to pass the bill – but seeing as the Trump era has seen its fair share of legislative upsets, the vote isn’t over until it’s over.

Watch live here:

The vote is slated for 1:30 pm ET.

end

 

We now have the identity  of our secret informant in the FBI Clinton probe on the Uranium One deal:  his name is Christopher Campbell and he was formerly a lobbyist for Tenex, the USA based arm of Russian government’s Rosatom

(courtesy zerohedge)

Identity of Secret Informant In FBI’s Clinton Probe Unveiled

More information about the Congressional probes into the Obama-era Uranium One deal leaked out Thursday when Reuters reported that Senate Republicans say their investigation into the Clinton’s role in approving the deal largely hinges on the testimony of a secret informant who was until recently the subject of a federal gag order.

But a month after Trump asked the DOJ to lift the gag order – a command that the DOJ promptly obeyed – the man has decided to speak out publicly for the first time in an interview with Reuters.

His name is Christopher Campbell, and was formerly a lobbyist for Tenex, the US-based arm of Rosatom, the Russian government’s nuclear agency.

At the time the Uranium One deal was approved, Campbell was a confidential source for the FBI in a Maryland bribery and kickback investigation that eventually led to the conviction of the head of the US unit of Rosatom, the Russian state-owned nuclear power company that received permission to buy Uranium One from a US strategic-resources panel, on bribery and corruption charges. Campbell was identified as an FBI informant by prosecutors in open court and by himself in a publicly available lawsuit he filed last year, but his identity as the informant was somehow not widely known, Reuters noted.

That’s largely because the DOJ put Campbell under a gag order after the investigation was settled. The FBI never informed Congress of its investigation into corruption at Rosatom and Uranium One, and in 2010, Hillary Clinton and a majority of the nine-member panel voted to approve the sale of Uranium One to Rosatom – thereby ceding control of 20% of US uranium assets to Russia.

Campbell’s lawyer, Victoria Toensing, who has not previously identified her client, said despite Campbell telling the government ”how corrupt the company was,” Rosatom still got permission to buy Uranium One. And while that certainly sounds suspicious, she didn’t say what Campbell would reveal regarding any alleged wrongdoing by Clinton.

A Uranium One Facility

In a telephone interview with Reuters, Campbell said he wanted to testify because of his concerns about Russia’s activities in the United States, but declined to comment further.

Campbell’s lawyer, Victoria Toensing, who has not previously identified her client, said despite Campbell telling the government ”how corrupt the company was,” Rosatom still got permission to buy Uranium One. She did not say what Campbell would reveal regarding any alleged wrongdoing by Clinton.

However, some law enforcement officials who spoke with Reuters under cover of anonymity said they doubt Campbell would be much help to investigators digging into Uranium One.  That’s because although both Uranium One and the bribery cases involved Rosatom, the two cases involved different business units, executives and allegations, with little other apparent overlap, Reuters found in a review of the court records of the bribery case.

Yet Campbell insisted that he had meaningful evidence of corruption related specifically to the Uranium One deal.

Campbell countered those who dismiss his knowledge of the Uranium One deal. “I have worked with the Justice Department undercover for several years, and documentation relating to Uranium One and political influence does exist and I have it,” Campbell said. He declined to give details of those documents.

And Campbell’s role in the probe will likely only expand if the Justice Department does end up appointing a special prosecutor, as a leak to the Washington Post Monday suggested it might. Though AG Jeff Sessions was quick to play down those rumors during public testimony earlier this week.

Campbell potentially now has a larger starring role in the Washington drama after the Justice Department said in a letter to Congress on Monday that it was considering appointing a special prosecutor to launch an investigation into Republican allegations of wrongdoing by Clinton, Trump’s former political rival, in the deal.

 

Under Clinton, the State Department was part of a nine-agency government Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States that approved the purchase of Uranium One. Her critics, including Trump, allege large donations by people connected to the Uranium One deal made to her family’s foundation influenced the State Department’s decision to approve it.

 

Reuters has no evidence that Clinton orchestrated the approval of Uranium One.

 

In an email, Rosatom said the company had made no donations to the Clinton Foundation and had not asked others to do so. The foundation stressed the State Department was only one member of the committee that approved the deal and said Clinton had no personal involvement in the decision.

 

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles Grassley said in a letter to Toensing, Campbell’s lawyer, that her client appears to have information “critical to the Committee’s oversight of the Justice Department and its ongoing inquiry into the manner in which” the Uranium One sale was approved.

As Reuters reports, Campbell was slated to testify against Vadim Mikerin, the Russian official in charge of US operations for Tenex, the US-based unit of Rosatom. Authorities later accused Mikerin of taking bribes from a shipping company in exchange for contracts to transport Russian uranium into the United States. He pleaded guilty in federal court in Maryland and was sentenced to prison for four years. The Justice Department had also initially charged Mikerin with extorting kickbacks from Campbell after hiring him as a $50,000-a-month lobbyist.

However, prosecutors eventually decided against it, saying Campbell lacked credibility.

Prosecutors alleged Mikerin had demanded Campbell pay between one-third and half of that money back to him each month under threat of losing the contract and veiled warnings of violence from the Russians. The demand prompted Campbell to turn to the FBI in 2010, which gave its blessing for him to remain part of the scheme.

 

Federal prosecutors were ready to use Campbell as a star witness against Mikerin, but they backed away after defense attorneys raised questions about Campbell’s credibility and whether he was a victim or had “entered into a business arrangement with eyes wide open,” according to court records.

As is often the case when it comes to international espionage and corruption, many questions remain unanswered. Prosecutors dropped the extortion charges against Mikerin and never mentioned Campbell again in any charging documents. A Justice Department spokeswoman declined to comment on the case. Campbell also declined to comment on the issue.

Reuters has been unable to learn why Tenex chose Campbell as its lobbyist. He acknowledged in lawsuit he filed in 2016 that he was hired despite the fact he “had no experience with nuclear fuel sales.”

Given his proximity to some of the individuals at the center of the Congressional investigations, it’s possible Campbell might be able to provide some game-changing information about Uranium One that could better illuminate the Clintons’ role in approving the deal. Of course, he could be just another crank.

I WILL SEE YOU ON FRIDAY NIGHT

HARVEY

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