Nov 17/Gold has a huge day up $16.60 and silver surpasses the key $17.25 mark/FBI informant Campbell will be testifying before Congress next week/

GOLD: $1295.10  UP $16.60

Silver: $17.33 UP 24 cents

Closing access prices:

Gold $1294.10

silver: $17.31`

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1290.19 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1282.60

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $7.59

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1288.82

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1282.40

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$6.42

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1283.75

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1283.60

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1284.35

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1285.50

For comex gold:

NOVEMBER/

NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH:31 NOTICE(S) FOR 3100 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 1051 FOR 105,100 OZ (3.326TONNES)

For silver:

NOVEMBER

5 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

25,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 881 for 4,405,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: BID $7846 OFFER /$7871 up $18.00 (MORNING)

BITCOIN : BID $7688 OFFER: $7713 // DOWN $140.00 (CLOSING)

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE  1745 contracts from 201,456 DOWN TO 199,711 EVEN THOUGH YESTERDAY’S TRADING SAW SILVER RISE  BY 11 CENTS.   WE DID HAVE MINIMAL LONG COMEX LIQUIDATION AND FURTHER  WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD QUITE A FEW MORE COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS WE HAD A HUGE 865 DECEMBER EFP’S ISSUED ALONG WITH 62 EFP’S FOR MARCH FOR A TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 927 CONTRACTS. THE ISSUANCE FOR MARCH BOTHERS ME A LOT AS THIS IS SUPPOSE TO BE FOR EMERGENCY IN THE UPCOMING DELIVERY MONTH.  I GUESS WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AND THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. WE HAD 1312 EFP’S ISSUED YESTERDAY

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED FALL IN OI COMEX DESPITE THE 11 CENT PRICE RISE.  A SMALL NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS  EXITED OUT OF THE COMEX AND FROM THE CME DATA 927 EFP’S  WERE ISSUED FOR A DELIVERABLE CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS. IN ESSENCE THE  DEMAND FOR SILVER PHYSICAL INTENSIFIES

In ounces, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.998 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 144% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT OCT MONTH/ THEY FILED: 5 NOTICE(S) FOR 25,000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest SURPRISINGLY FELL BY A HUGE 5,167 CONTRACTS DESPITE THE SMALL RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD ($0.90) WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A SMALL AMOUNT OF COMEX LONGS EXIT THE ARENA.  HOWEVER  THE TOTAL NUMBER OF GOLD EFP’S ISSUED TODAY  TOTALED A CONSIDERABLE: 4,394 CONTRACTS OF WHICH THE MONTH OF DECEMBER SAW 4,394 CONTRACTS AND FEB SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS. The new OI for the gold complex rests at 531,000. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES DESPITE THE RAIDS.

Result: A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN OI DESPITE THE SMALL RISE IN PRICE IN GOLD ON YESTERDAY ($0.90). WE  HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS (4,394 EFP’S). THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL AT THE COMEX AS WE ARE APPROACHING THE HUGE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER. WE   HAD A TINY AMOUNT OF GOLD COMEX OI LEAVE THE COMEX GOLD ARENA.

we had:  31  notice(s) filed upon for 3100 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

No change in gold inventory at the GLD/

Inventory rests tonight: 843.39 tonnes.

SLV

TODAY WE HAD NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ

end

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver UNEXPECTEDLY FELL BY 1745 contracts from 201,456 DOWN  TO 199,711 (AND now A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE THE RISE IN SILVER PRICE (A GAIN OF 11 CENTS). OUR BANKERS  USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE 865  PRIVATE EFP’S FOR DECEMBER(WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS)  AND 62 EFP’S FOR MARCH FOR A TOTAL OF 927 EFP CONTRACTS.  EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. THIS IS QUITE EARLY FOR THESE EFP ISSUANCE..USUALLY WE WITNESS THIS ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THIS CONTINUES RIGHT UP UNTIL FDN.  WE ALSO HAD NO  A SMALL AMOUNT OF SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION.

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 11 CENT GAIN IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING). WE  HAD ANOTHER 927 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING OUR COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON TOGETHER WITH A TINY AMOUNT OF  SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 16.34 points or .48% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 180.28 pts or 0.28% / The Nikkei closed UP 45.68 POINTS OR 0.20%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.24%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.6330/Oil UP to 56.12 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.10 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6330. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WEAKER TO THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.6405 //ONSHORE YUAN WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE WEAKER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS  VERY HAPPY TODAY.

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)North Korea/

Not good:  Rogue state North Korea has been aggressively working on new ballistic missile submarines according to satellite images

( zerohedge)

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

c) REPORT ON CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

The UN warns of the huge mistake that Europe mad by bringing in huge numbers of refigees. They also state that Europe must be ready for a 2nd wage

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Turkey

Funny!! Erdogan withdraws his troops form NATO exercises in Norway after his name and the founding father of modern Turkey, Ataturk were used on an enemy chart

( zerohedge)

ii)The Turkish lira plunges to 3.9 to the dollar and the 10 yr bond spiked to 12.5% as inflation is gripping this nation. The lira further fell when Erdogan tells the Central bank that it is on the wrong path.

so go central bank independence.

( zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

We still have a demand problem as swap dealers go to the short side on oil

( zerohedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Nice bunch of fellows..JPMorgan informing other co conspirators as they rig Treasury bond offerings.

Where have we heard this happening before?  of yes:  gold and silver chat rooms

( Dugan/New York Post/GATA)

ii)This is why you should worry about cryptocurrencies:  they are mathematical and can disappear on an electrical storm or just theft from hacking.

Gold has the huge advantage that you can touch and hold it.  The risk is confiscation by authorities and counterfeiting.

Cryptos have the advantage that it is far difficult to counterfeit or steal..but its disadvantage is that you cannot hold it ..it is simply a mathematical model.

( zerohedge)

iii)We brought you this story yesterday but it is worth repeating.  The Saudi regime’s sole purpose in arresting those princes was to expropriate money from the them in return for their freedom

( zerohedge)

iv)Craig Hemke marvels (and so do I) at the huge amount of comex silver contracts out there and they far exceed the total global annual production.  I highlight this to you on a daily basis

( Craig Hemke/GATA/Sprott)

v)My goodness, the average investor believes Bitcoin will hit $196,000 per coin

( zerohedge)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)LAST NIGHT

The dollar is slammed with the USA/Yen collapses on a report from the Wall Street Journal that the Trump campaign folks had to answer to a subpoena

( zerohedge)

ii)We have been harping on this for several years.  Today Yale Chief Investment officer has come out and stated that returns are going to be low from this point on and this will have a devastating effect on private pensions

( zerohedge)

iii)I guess they never learn:  One Michigan bank has brought back the zero down mortgage (with higher costs down the road).  They are even covering the closing costs.
( zerohedge)
iv)Michael Snyder writes a terrific commentary on something that we must pay attention to:
the high amount of junk bonds that are coming due..this will break the system
( zerohedge)

v)As outlined to you yesterday the FBI informant by the name of Campbell will be testifying before Congress and he has a boatload of evidence against Clinton, the Clinton foundation, Mueller, et al in the Uranium One scandal.

( iBankCoin.com)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest SURPRISINGLY FELL BY  5167  CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level of 531,131 DESPITE THE  SMALL RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($0.90 RISE WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  WE DID NOT HAVE SOME GOLD COMEX  LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER  WE DID HAVE A CONSIDERABLE 4,394 COMEX LONGS EXIT THE COMEX ARENA THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THEY RECEIVE  A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. THE CME REPORTS THAT 4394 EFPS WERE ISSUED FOR DECEMBER AND 0 WERE ISSUED FOR MARCH. THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. IF WE SUBTRACT THE LOSS IN TOTAL COMEX GOLD FROM THE EFP’S IT WOULD SHOW A LOSS OF COMEX GOLD AT 773 CONTRACTS.

Result: a HUGE DECREASE IN OPEN INTEREST DESPITE THE SMALL SIZED RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($0.90.) A HUGE 4,394 EFP’S ISSUED FOR A FIAT BONUS AND A DELIVERABLE FORWARD GOLD CONTRACT IN LONDON. WE HAD  A SMALL AMOUNT (773 CONTRACTS) OF COMEX GOLD LIQUIDATION.

.

We have now entered the NON active contract month of NOVEMBER.HERE WE HAD A LOSS OF 22 CONTRACT(S) FALLING TO 40. We had 11 notices filed YESTERDAY so LOST 11 contracts or 1100 additional oz will NOT stand for delivery in this non active month of November.

The very big active December contract month saw it’s OI LOSE 11,953 contracts DOWN to 257,076  (OF WHICH 4,394 WERE EFP TRANSFERS).  THUS MOST OF THE ROLLOVERS ARE TURNING INTO EFP’S. January saw its open interest FALL by 127 contracts DOWN to 784. FEBRUARY saw a gain of 5964 contacts up to 198,177. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES.

.

We had 31 notice(s) filed upon today for 3100 oz

VOLUME FOR TODAY : 388,373 (PRELIMINARY)

CONFIRMED VOLUME YESTERDAY: 298,749 contracts.  (comex volumes are intensifying)

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI UNEXPECTEDLY FELL BY 1745 CONTRACTS FROM 201,456 DOWN TO 199,711 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 11 CENT GAIN IN PRICE . WE  HAD 865 PRIVATE EFP’S ISSUED FOR DECEMBER AND 40 EFP’S FOR MARCH BY OUR BANKERS TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. THIS IS QUITE EARLY FOR THE ISSUANCE. USUALLY WE WITNESS THIS EVENT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND IT CONTINUES RIGHT UP TO FDN.  WE HAD A TINY AMOUNT OF LONG SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED TODAY TO OUR COMEX LONGS TOTAL 927 AND THUS DEMAND FOR SILVER INTENSIFIES

The new front month of November saw its OI RISE by 3 contract(s) and thus it stands at 5. We had 1 notice(s) served YESTERDAY so we gained 4 contracts or an additional 20,000 oz will stand in this non active month of November. After November we have the big active delivery month of December and here the OI FELL by ONLY 4981 contracts DOWN to 101,613, YET WE HAD 927 EFP’S ISSUED WHICH MEANS MOST OF THE ROLLOVERS LANDED INTO EFP’S AND WE HAD 818 COMEX LONG LIQUIDATION WITHOUT ANY ROLLOVER.  January saw A LOSS OF 23 contracts FALLING TO 1032.

We had 5 notice(s) filed for 25,000 oz for the NOV. 2017 contract

INITIAL standings for NOVEMBER

 Nov 17/2017.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  
 6026.01
 oz
SCOTIA
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz    nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
NIL oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
31 notice(s)
3100 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
9 contracts
(900 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1051 notices
105,100 oz
3.269 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month     xxx oz
Today we HAD  0 kilobar trans

WE HAD nil DEALER DEPOSIT:
total dealer deposits: nil oz

We had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 customer deposit(s):

total customer deposits NIL  oz

We had 1 customer withdrawal(s)

i) out of Scotia:  6026.01 oz

Total customer withdrawals: 6026.01 oz

we had 0 adjustment(s)

For NOVEMBER:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 31 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 13 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOVEMBER. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1051) x 100 oz or 102,000 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (62 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (31 x 100 oz per contract) equals 106,000 oz, the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of NOV

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOVEMBER contract month:

No of notices served (1051) x 100 oz or ounces + {(40)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (31) x 100 oz which equals 106,000 oz standing in this active delivery month of NOVEMBER (3.303 tonnes)

WE LOST 11 ADDITIONAL CONTRACTS OR 1100 OZ OF ADDITIONAL GOLD STANDING FOR METAL AT THE COMEX

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Total dealer inventory 529,409.586 or 16.406 tonnes (dealer gold continues to disappear)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8,726,169.719 or 271.42 tonnes

I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process and are being used in the raiding of gold!
The gold comex is an absolute fraud. The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction. This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.

IN THE LAST 14 MONTHS 84 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOVEMBER DELIVERY MONTH

NOVEMBER INITIAL standings

AND NOW THE NOVEMBER DELIVERY MONTH
 Nov 17/ 2017
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 253,228.670 oz
Delaware
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
 nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
 nil
oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
5 CONTRACT(S)
(25,000,OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contract
(NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 881 contracts(4,405,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month

Nov 13/ 2017

today, we had 0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:

total dealer deposit: nil oz

we had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 2 customer withdrawal(s):
i) Out of  Delaware:  3002.800 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 250,225.820 oz

TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWAL  253,228.670 oz

We had 0 Customer deposit(s):

***deposits into JPMorgan have stopped again
In the month of March and February, JPMorgan stopped (received) almost all of the comex silver contracts.
why is JPMorgan bringing in so much silver??? why is this not criminal in that they are also the massive short in silver

total customer deposits: nil oz

we had 0 adjustment(s)

The total number of notices filed today for the NOVEMBER. contract month is represented by 5 contracts FOR 25,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOVEMBER., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 881 x 5,000 oz = 4,405,0000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (5) and the number of notices served upon today (5 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOVEMBER contract month: 881 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOVEMBER(5) -number of notices served upon today (5)x 5000 oz equals 4,405,000 oz of silver standing for the NOVEMBER contract month. This is EXCELLENT for this NON active delivery month of November.

We gained 4 contract(s) or an additional 20,000 oz will stand for metal in the non active delivery month of November.

AS I MENTIONED ABOVE, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER FROM MAY 1 2017 ONWARD. IT IS NOW COMFORTING TO SEE CONSIDERABLE QUEUE JUMPING OCCURRING CONTINUALLY IN GOLD FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE RECORDED TIME AT THE GOLD COMEX!!(1974). QUEUE JUMPING CAN ONLY OCCUR ON PHYSICAL METAL SHORTAGE.

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 114,687
CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 94,110 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 94,110 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 470 MILLION OZ OR 67.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

Total dealer silver: 43.817 million
Total number of dealer and customer silver: 231.412 million oz

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 1.1 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 1,3% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 62.2%
Percentage of fund in silver:37.5%
cash .+.3%( Nov 17/2017)

 

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -0.87% (Nov 16 /2017)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.71% to NAV (Nov 16/2017 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -0.87%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.71%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

Nov 17/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 16./NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.39 TONNES

Nov 15./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

NOV 14/a small deposit of .300 tonnes into the GLD inventory/Inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 13/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.09 TONNES

Nov 10/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

Nov 9/no changes in inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

NOV 8/ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD DESPITE GOLD’S RISE TODAY. INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.09

Nov 7/a huge withdrawal of 1.48 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 844.27 tonnes

NOV 6/ a tiny withdrawal of .29 tonnes to pay for fees etc/inventory rests at 845.75 tonnes

Nov 3/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 846.04 tonnes

NOV 2/STRANGE!!! WE HAD ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.55 TONNES FROM THE GLD DESPITE GOLD’S RISE OF $6.60 YESTERDAY AND $1.55 TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.04 TONNES

Nov 1/a withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 849.59 tonnes

OCT 31/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 850.77 tonnes

Oct 30/STRANGE WITH GOLD UP THESE PAST TWO TRADING DAYS, THE GLD HAS A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.77 TONES

Oct 27/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.95 TONNES

Oct 26./A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.95 TONNES

Oct 25/NO CHANGE (SO FAR) IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.13 TONNES

Oct 24./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 853.13 tonnes

OCT 23./NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 853.13 TONNES

OCT 20/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 853.13 TONNES

oCT 19/NO CHANGE/853.13 TONNES

Oct 18 /no change in gold inventory at the GLD/ inventory rests at 853.13 tonnes

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Nov 17/2017/ Inventory rests tonight at 843.39 tonnes

*IN LAST 274 TRADING DAYS: 97.56 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 209 TRADING DAYS: A NET 59,72 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.
*FROM FEB 1/2017: A NET 28.61 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

Nov 17/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

Nov 16./NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ/

Nov 15./no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 tones

NOV 14/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 tonnes

Nov 13/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ

Nov 10/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

Nov 9/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz.

NOV 8/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ

Nov 7/a huge withdrawal of 944,000 oz from the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

NOV 6/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 319.018 million oz/

Nov 3/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 319.018 MILLION OZ.

NOV 2/A TINY LOSS OF 137,000 OZ BUT THAT WAS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE AND STORAGE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.018 MILLION OZ/

Nov 1/STRANGE! WITH SILVER’S HUGE 48 CENT GAIN WE HAD NO GAIN IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.155 MILLION OZ/

Oct 31/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 319.155 million oz

Oct 30/STRANGE!WITH SILVER UP THESE PAST TWO TRADING DAYS, WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.133 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.155 MILLION OZ/

Oct 27/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.288 MILLION OZ

Oct 26/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.288 MILLION OZ/

Oct 25/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.288 MILLION OZ

Oct 24/no change in inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 320.288 million oz/

oCT 23./STRANGE!!WITH SILVER RISING TODAY WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.039 MILLION OZ/inventory rests at 320.288 million oz/

OCT 20NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.327 MILLION OZ

oCT 19/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 321.327 MILLION OZ

Oct 18 no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rest at 322.271 million oz

Nov 17/2017:

Inventory 318.074 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

+ 1.54%
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.76%
30 day trend

end

At 3:30 pm we receive the COT report.  With the huge amount of EFP’s issued, the data is without a doubt compromised and I do not think we can glean much from the data.  However for completeness sake, I am including it on every Friday:

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
271,496 76,412 91,605 122,703 338,494 485,804 506,511
Change from Prior Reporting Period
-1,075 -369 -3,033 -446 58 -4,554 -3,344
Traders
190 91 96 51 53 287 204
 
Small Speculators  
Long Short Open Interest  
47,250 26,543 533,054  
765 -445 -3,789  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Our large speculators

those large specs that have been long in gold pitched 1075 contracts from their long side

those large specs that have been short in gold covered a tiny 369 contracts.

large specs go net short by 700 contracts

Our commercials

those commercials that have been long in gold pitched 446 contracts from their long side

those commercials that have been short in gold added a tiny 58 contracts to their short side

commercials go net short by 400 contracts.

Our small specs

those small specs who have been long in gold added 765 contracts to their long side

those small specs who have been short in gold covered a tiny 445 contrcts

Conclusion: the huge increase in EFP’s which in essence transfers longs over to London means that actual demand for paper is intensifying.

as for reading the tea leaves at the comex: you can glean absolutely nothing from it.

and now for silver:

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
98,070 28,897 25,532 51,730 132,178
-1,802 -2,073 -289 -453 -1,646
Traders
87 41 44 34 40
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 199,899 Long Short
24,567 13,292 175,332 186,607
-887 577 -3,431 -2,544 -4,008
non reportable positions Positions as of: 140 111

Our large speculators

those large speculators that are long in silver pitched 1802 contracts from their long side

those large specs that have been short in silver covered a  huge 2073 contracts from their short side

large specs go net long by 270 contracts

Our commercials

those commercials who are long in silver pitched 453 contracts from their long side

those commercials who have been short in silver  covered a huge 1646 contracts from their short side

commercials go net long by 1200 contracts

Our small specs

those small specs that have been long in silver pitched 887 contracts from their long side

those small specs that have been short in silver added 577 contracts to their short side.

Conclusions: same as gold.

end

Major gold/silver trading/commentaries for FRIDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Is New Fed Chief A “Swamp Critter Extraordinaire”?

– Is the New Fed Chief Jeremy Powell a “Swamp Critter Extraordinaire”?
– Trump surrounding himself with elites disconnected from everyday society
– Realities of America’s difficulties not recognised by US power makers
– Powell will likely continue to protect Wall Street over Main Street
– Savers should diversify to protect themselves from Fed’s ponzi policies

Editor: Mark O’Byrne

Just like many of his other campaign promises, Trump isn’t doing a great job of draining the swamp. His nominee for Fed Chair is Jerome Powell.

Powell is a ‘swamp critter extraordinaire’ so declared by Bill Bonner last week. We’re inclined to agree. Name-calling is poor sportsmanship when it comes to politics, but hey, Trump started it.

When Trump traveled around the United States campaigning for the most privileged position in the country he lashed out at the seemingly abstract promise to ‘Drain the Swamp’ at every opportunity. He used it to criticise anything he didn’t like about the status-quo.

He made the ‘swamp critters’ the fall-guys for every hardship Americans were facing. In many ways he was right.

Yet as has been the case throughout the last eleven months, Trump hasn’t done a great job of turning rhetoric into reality.

He has continued to fill the swamp rather than drain it. Spending by lobbyists has reached levels unseen since 2012. Secretaries are flying in private government jets and Trump uses Republican Party money to fund his own legal expenses.

This is nothing compared to the senior appointments he has made. Trump has taken ‘swamp critters’ and placed them in positions of such power and influence one wonders what his supporters make of it all.

Hypocrisy was a word heard frequently during the Obama Presidency. Obama was great with words and preached peace while practicing war. Trump’s hypocrisy is on a whole new level.

Powell is just his latest appointment. With an estimated fortune of $55 million the likely new Fed Chair  has spent his career in Washington flip-flopping between roles in both regulation and industry. He is now set to take the wheel at a job whose sole role is to steer the US economy. Indeed, some more imperially minded Americans see the job as being to steer the global economy.

Trump is like a school boy with football stickers, keen to make up the set of Team Wall Street. As Vox outlined:

Trump will have in place a Wall Street Fed chair to go with his Wall Street Treasury secretary, Wall Street Council of Economic Advisers chair, and Wall Street slate of bank regulators.

In a country that is set to see 8,000 retail store closings this year (more than in 2008), where not a single person is employed in nearly one out of every five U.S. families and almost 60% of people do not have enough money saved to even cover a $500 emergency expense, can another Washington elite be expected to build an economy that will benefit the many?

Powell, another Swamp dweller or worse, a crony?

Unsurprisingly Powell’s nomination was a step away from the norm for Trump. Previous Presidents have usually renominated the incumbent chair. Given Trump’s ongoing criticism of Yellen a replacement was expected.

One thing that was expected was the financial stature and Wall Street position of a Trump nominee. Powell is a Republican who built a vast wealth as a partner at Carlyle. In Powell’s latest financial disclosure (June 2017) he lists his net worth between $19.7 million and $55 million. Once he is Fed Chair he will be  the richest Fed chair since banker Marriner Eccles, who held the position from 1934 to 1948.

What wasn’t quite expected in this nomination was how similar to Yellen the nominee would be.

Powell has often backed Ms. Yellen on a number of issues from raising interest rates to reducing the Fed’s balance sheet. He has supported every policy decision since joining the Fed, including interest rate increases, and supported its decision to unwind the bond-buying program put in place during and after the 2008 financial crisis.

There might be some difference in bank regulation. Yellen has often given a somewhat skeptical view of the pro-business approach by the current White House. However given Trump’s appointment of Randy Quarles, a dedicated deregulator, as the Fed’s vice chair in charge of regulation, there is likely to be little noticeable change here.

As Bill Bonner explains:

The important thing, from our point of view, is that he can be relied upon to do exactly as expected.

Like Ms. Yellen, he will be in favor of shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet… and raising interesting rates… until the money supply tightens and all hell breaks loose.

Then, he will move heaven and earth to protect the Deep State from bankruptcy… with an aggressive program of QE Encore.

The one area where there is a major difference is the the strong academic background in monetary policy that both Yellen and Ben Bernanke shared. This is where Powell is most certainly lacking. But, given the horrors seen as a result of previous chairpersons, this might not be such a terrible thing.

Where this will backfire is if Powell is easily persuaded by the views of others. Others who might just not have the entire country’s interests at heart, say… everyone else from a pro Wall Street position?

This isn’t an impossible thing to imagine. He reportedly likes to raise any concerns he has in private rather than in public. At first this sounds like a professional approach, but in a political climate where the President will bully publicly we perhaps need a Fed Chair who is willing to shout about any concerns he has. Powell seems to be a people-pleaser.

What the president wanted was a Republican without particularly strong views on monetary policy, someone who would continue with Yellen’s softly, softly approach to raising rates but would be ready to roll back some of the post-crisis regulations imposed on the financial sector. By those criteria, Powell was the perfect choice. The Guardian

In short, Powell comes from the background Trump likes and he seems to have the personality the President can handle. Powell is unlikely to make life difficult for Trump and the rest of the swamp. Worryingly we may be faced with little upset as it will be business as usual but this may result in far more upset in the wider economy.

Far removed from reality 

Powell isn’t the only one who appears to have never looked beyond America’s elite when it comes to life experience. He will no doubt have to have a close working relationship with the US Treasury Secretary whose department works hand in hand with the Federal Reserve to preserve economic stability.

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin is a banker turned Hollywood film producer with little known experience of policy and public finance.

To look at his resume is to basically read a tailor-made mockery of Trump’s pledge to drain the swamp of ‘bankers’ and ‘globalists’.

Prior to becoming Trump’s Chief fundraiser Mnuchin was a banker who had previously worked at hedge funds. During the financial crisis he (along with Soros and others) bought the failing IndyMac bank. It was rebranded to OneWest bank and received some major criticism surrounding its quick approach to foreclosing on homeowners:

Back in 2011, local housing activists and the Occupy movement in Los Angeles camped out on [Mnuchin’s] lawn to save the home of Rose Mary Gudiel, a La Puente, California, resident who faced eviction after being just two weeks late on one mortgage payment. The activists threatened to move all of Gudiel’s furniture into Mnuchin’s $26 million Bel Air estate if the eviction wasn’t stopped. Twenty police officers and a helicopter met the protesters.

Why was Mnuchin’s front lawn the focal point for the protest? Because years after forming Dune Capital in 2004, Mnuchin’s hedge fund purchased the failed lender IndyMac, one of America’s largest home lenders and a leading distributor of Alt-A mortgages, a subprime hybrid which did not require borrowers to accurately state their incomes. After IndyMac failed, Dune led the investment group that purchased it from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) in 2009, renaming it OneWest Bank. Mnuchin became OneWest’s principal owner and chairman.

…Protected by a federal backstop, OneWest turned $3 billion in profits from 2009 to 2014, off an initial investment of $1.65 billion. They spun $1.86 billion of that out to investors in dividend payments. Meanwhile, the FDIC wound up losing $13 billion on the IndyMac failure, and will pay an estimated $2.4 billion to OneWest for its foreclosure costs.

Things haven’t much improved for the Treasury Secretary’s image since his government appointment. During his time he has gone on to marry actress Louise Linton. Their marriage got off to a rocky start when they came under investigation for requesting a government jet to take them on their honeymoon.

Since then Linton has enjoyed posting snapshots into her designer life by posting on instagram. It’s almost like an Imelda Marcos in waiting.

Steve Mnuchin

Of course, a man can’t be blamed for his wife’s lack of taste or subtlety. But his approach to policies should also come under some scrutiny, which isn’t hard given how close to the surface of the swamp they are.

He has repeatedly praised Yellen and flip-flopped on tax reform. He has even expressed an interest in following the lead of other countries by issuing 50–100 year bonds government bonds. As Dr. Joseph Salerno explained in reference to Austria’s 70-year bond, this is a bad and dangerous move that only serves to benefit the elite.

The creation of [long-term bonds] enables the political elite to covertly and repeatedly plunder and impoverish productive savers, capitalists, entrepreneurs and workers, while avoiding the need to incur the wrath of the productive class by raising taxes.

So with untrained, wealthy Powell keen to people-please at every opportunity and Mnuchin showing off his vast wealth and lack of understanding for the poor, things aren’t looking promising when it comes to Making American Great Again.

What is the moral of the story of critters of the swamp?

Sadly the moral is likely to be that we should not trust a government to protect our individual interests. Even if they come to power with the best of intentions, they rarely have the genuine desire of improving the lives beyond the few.

From every political experiment in history there have been few examples where all of the country’s citizens feel they have benefited equally. There have also been few examples of politicians following through on their promises.

In regard to the US the worrying point of concern is that Trump appears to have forgotten the devastating consequences that low interest rates have had on normal people. This is something he campaigned on and yet has almost guaranteed its future presence in the US economy by nominating yet another Yellen-type.

On paper Yellen improved the economy, unemployment has fallen and the US Fed’s balance sheet is set to be reduced. However these ‘improvements’ aren’t being felt by US citizens.

Hard-working individuals, from the upper middle classes downwards are being forced to choose between putting their savings into a bubblicious stock market or receive nothing in return (or worse) from their bank account. Meanwhile the economy is awash with food stamps, untenable personal loans and growing inequality.

The future does not appear to look any different. We stand and watch with curiosity but in the meantime suggest savers take charge of their own finances. Ensuring they are well protected from the damaging policies made in regard to the United States’ economy.

This isn’t just a point to note for those in the U.S.

The power of the U.S. dollar is so extensive that Powell’s leadership will have far-reaching consequences around the world. Powell will likely take instruction from Trump and his Wall Street swampies, suggesting that the world no longer just has to fear Trump’s tweets but also his take on the management of the dollar as well.

The best way to protect yourself from dollar debasement and ongoing devaluation is to invest in gold. This is exactly the approach taken by a number of central banks. They know that gold cannot be devalued by the US Federal Reserve and will only benefit from Trump’s dangerous, Wall St approach to economic and monetary management.

Physical gold held in an allocated and segregated manner protects from counter party risks. The same cannot be said for the paper and digital U.S. dollar and its many counter party risks.

Trump’s appointment of Powell, the latest addition to the Goldman Sachs / Wall Street line-up, confirms Trump’splans to let the wealthy counter parties take precedence over the masses.

Related reading:

Russia Buys 34 Tonnes Of Gold In September

Gold Price Reacts as Central Banks Start Major Change

Central Bank Wants Every Citizen To Own 3.5 Ounces of Gold Bullion

Gold Coins and Bars Saw Demand Rise 17% to 222T in Q3

News and Commentary

Gold prices inch up, head for second weekly gain (Reuters.com)

Stocks Climb After Tumultuous Week; Dollar Falls (Bloomberg.com)

Stocks Rebound on Tech Rally as Treasuries Weaken (Bloomberg.com)

How Mt. Gox’s bitcoin customers could lose again (Reuters.com)

Saudi Arabia Suspends Bank Accounts and Expropriates Detainees (Bloomberg.com)

Palladium – This Year’s Best Commodity Is One of the Smallest Metals Markets (Bloomberg.com)

Source: Bloomberg

Prepare for a crash (MoneyWeek.com)

What happens when the next recession hits? (StansBerryChurcHouse.com)

Turks Just Bought The Most Gold Ever As Lira Tumbles (ZeroHedge.com)

How The Fed Destroyed The Functioning American Democracy And Bankrupted The Nation (ZeroHedge.com)

What History Teaches About Interest Rates (DailyReckoning.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

17 Nov: USD 1,283.85, GBP 969.31 & EUR 1,088.19 per ounce
16 Nov: USD 1,277.70, GBP 969.01 & EUR 1,085.53 per ounce
15 Nov: USD 1,285.70, GBP 976.62 & EUR 1,086.29 per ounce
14 Nov: USD 1,273.70, GBP 972.47 & EUR 1,086.59 per ounce
13 Nov: USD 1,278.40, GBP 977.59 & EUR 1,097.89 per ounce
10 Nov: USD 1,284.45, GBP 976.44 & EUR 1,102.19 per ounce
09 Nov: USD 1,284.00, GBP 980.98 & EUR 1,106.29 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

17 Nov: USD 17.09, GBP 12.95 & EUR 14.49 per ounce
16 Nov: USD 17.04, GBP 12.92 & EUR 14.48 per ounce
15 Nov: USD 17.12, GBP 13.00 & EUR 14.45 per ounce
14 Nov: USD 16.94, GBP 12.92 & EUR 14.45 per ounce
13 Nov: USD 16.93, GBP 12.93 & EUR 14.53 per ounce
10 Nov: USD 17.00, GBP 12.92 & EUR 14.60 per ounce
09 Nov: USD 17.10, GBP 13.03 & EUR 14.69 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– UK Debt Crisis Is Here – Consumer Spending, Employment and Sterling Fall While Inflation Takes Off
– Protect Your Savings With Gold: ECB Propose End To Deposit Protection
– Internet Shutdowns Show Physical Gold Is Ultimate Protection
– Gold Coins and Bars Saw Demand Rise 17% to 222T in Q3
– Prepare For Interest Rate Rises And Global Debt Bubble Collapse
– Platinum Bullion ‘May Be One Of The Only Cheap Assets Out There’
– World’s Largest Gold Producer China Sees Production Fall 10%
– German Investors Now World’s Largest Gold Buyers
– Gold Price Reacts as Central Banks Start Major Change
– Why Switzerland Could Save the World and Protect Your Gold
– Invest In Gold To Defend Against Bail-ins
– Stumbling UK Economy Shows Importance of Gold
– Wozniak and Thiel Fuel Bitcoin-Gold Debate: Gold Comes Out On Top

END

GOLD TRADING

GOLD breaks its 50 day moving average after bouncing off the 200 day moving average..  Silver breaks $17.25

(courtesy zerohedge)

Gold Up Most In 3 Months, Spikes Above Key Technical Level

Gold continues to shine in the post-Saudi-coup world….

And the precious metal just broke above its 50-day moving average, after bouncing off its 200-day on Tuesday.

This is gold’s best day in 3 months…

Gold is gaining as the dollar index slumps to near 1-month lows…

Of course, it’s USDJPY that really matters (and it just broke below 112.00)

end

Nice bunch of fellows..Morgan  Stanley, Goldman Sachs et al informing other co conspirators as they rig Treasury bond offerings.

Where have we heard this happening before?  of yes:  gold and silver chat rooms

(courtesy Dugan/New York Post)

Bank said to be informing against co-conspirators in Treasury bond rigging

 Section: 

Wall St. Traders Secretly Used Chat Rooms to Rig Treasury Bond Prices, Lawsuit Says

By Kevin Dugan
New York Post
Thursday, November 16, 2017

Wall Street banks secretly shared client information in online chat rooms to rig auctions for the $14 trillion US Treasuries market, according to an explosive lawsuit filed in Manhattan federal court on Wednesday.

The move wrongly fattened the banks’ profits and picked profits from clients, the suit claims.

The new accusations, leveled by several pension funds and wealthy individual investors, are contained in an expanded class-action suit originally filed in July 2015 — and include an unusual twist: Some of the evidence came from confidential informants and one of the banks sued in the earlier action.

That bank is now cooperating with the plaintiffs in the massive civil action and is providing an in-depth look into how Wall Street allegedly conspired to rig Treasury bond trades.

The revised lawsuit expands on details on how the banks conspired to set Treasury bond prices — like moves to manipulate the price of the bonds higher on days when there was a lot of demand, and vice versa, court papers claim.

The banks worked their scam for years until the Post first reported in June 2015 the existence of a government investigation into the alleged actions, the updated lawsuit claims. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://nypost.com/2017/11/16/wall-st-bankers-secretly-used-chat-rooms-t…

END

Zero hedge comments on the above story

(zerohedge)

Wall Street Traders Used Chat Rooms To Rig Treasury Auctions, Federal Lawsuit Alleges

Over the past several months, as we followed HSBC’s currency scandal involving trader Mark Johnson who netted his firm $8 million in illicit profits by front-running a $3.5 billion client order, we frequently noted that Johnson was nothing more than a convenient scapegoat for a global financial industry that is rife with similar front-running scams that go unnoticed.

That said, to our complete ‘shock’ the NY Post today highlights another front-running scam allegedly perpetrated by Wall Street’s finest at the expense of their clients.  According to new documents published in a class action lawsuit filed by a number pension funds and wealthy individual investors, some of Wall Street’s largest primary dealers in the U.S. Treasury market habitually, and illegally, shared client orders via online chat rooms to order to game Treasury auctions.

Wall Street banks secretly shared client information in online chat rooms in order to rig auctions for the $14 trillion US Treasurys market, according to an explosive lawsuit filed in Manhattan federal court on Wednesday.

The move wrongly fattened the banks’ profits and picked profits from clients, the suit claims.

The new accusations, leveled by several pension funds and wealthy individual investors, are contained in an expanded class-action suit originally filed in July 2015 — and include an unusual twist: Some of the evidence came from confidential informants and one of the banks sued in the earlier action.

That bank is now cooperating with the plaintiffs in the massive civil action, and is providing an in-depth look into how Wall Street allegedly conspired to rig Treasury bond trades.

Wall Street

As our readers are undoubtedly aware, typically, the Treasury holds an auction, then banks submit their bids for US debt based on how much they think those bonds are worth. The Treasury then doles out the bonds proportionately to the bidders at the same price. The bank that asked for the best price gets the most bonds.

Traders at the Wall Street banks shared the prices that their clients had sought to buy the bonds, giving each of the banks in the alleged cartel a clearer picture of what they thought the market was, and a better chance at getting a bigger share of the bonds to sell, according to the complaint.

So, which banks would participate in such a scheme?  Surely none of the marquee names on wall street, right?

The amended suit tightens its focus on a select number of banks, naming Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, the Royal Bank of Scotland, BNP Paribas, and UBS, among others, as the firms behind the rigging, which they allege occurred from Jan. 1, 2007, to mid-2015.

The funds continue to allege the banks mined their own customers’ bids for Treasury bonds to get a bigger share of the auction, and sell the bonds for more profit.

Probes on the auction practices are being conducted by the Justice Department, the Securities and Exchange Commission and other federal, state and overseas regulators, sources said. No regulator has accused any bank of wrongdoing.

Of course, we’re sure this is all just another big misunderstanding by a DOJ that is just trying to “criminalize behavior that is normal.

end

This is why you should worry about cryptocurrencies:  they are mathematical and can disappear on an electrical storm or just theft from hacking.

Gold has the huge advantage that you can touch and hold it.  The risk is confiscation by authorities and counterfeiting.

Cryptos have the advantage that it is far difficult to counterfeit or steal..but its disadvantage is that you cannot hold it ..it is simply a mathematical model.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Twice burned — how Mt. Gox’s bitcoin customers could lose again

 Section: 

By Alexandra Harney and Steve Stecklow
Reuters
Thursday, November 16, 2017

TOKYO — When Mt. Gox, the world’s largest bitcoin trading exchange, collapsed in early 2014, more than 24,000 customers around the world lost access to hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of cryptocurrency and cash.

More than three years later, with the price of bitcoin skyrocketing to more than $7,000, not a single customer has recouped a single cent, crypto or otherwise. It’s not clear when they will. The failed exchange has become stuck in a morass of litigation — a Russian doll of bankruptcies in Japan and New Zealand, four in all, plus lawsuits in the United States and competing claims from creditors.

And although the Mt. Gox bankruptcy trustee recovered digital currency now worth more than $1.6 billion, under Japanese law the exchange’s customers likely will recover only a fraction of that.

Kim Nilsson, a Swedish software developer who had more than a dozen bitcoins at Mt. Gox, isn’t optimistic of a payout soon. “It’s a legal twilight zone,” he says. “I wouldn’t be surprised if it took several years more.” …

In all, more than 980,000 bitcoins have been stolen from exchanges since 2011 — two-thirds of those from Mt. Gox. Today all the stolen coins would be worth more than $6 billion, Reuters has calculated. …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/bitcoin-gox/

END

We brought you this story yesterday but it is worth repeating.  The Saudi regime’s sole purpose in arresting those princes was to expropriate money from the them in return for their freedom

(courtesy zerohedge)

Saudi regime expropriates detainees for their freedom

 Section: 

Saudi Authorities Offer Freedom Deals to Princes and Businessmen

By Simeon Kerr
Financial Times, London
Thursday, November 16, 2017

Saudi authorities are negotiating settlements with princes and businessmen held over allegations of corruption, offering deals for the detainees to pay for their freedom, say people briefed on the discussions.

In some cases the government is seeking to appropriate as much as 70 percent of suspects’ wealth, two of the people said, in a bid to channel hundreds of billions of dollars into depleted state coffers.

The arrangements, which have already seen some assets and funds handed over to the state, provide an insight into the strategy behind Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s dramatic corruption purge. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/e888a676-caa9-11e7-ab18-7a9fb7d6163e

END

Craig Hemke marvels (and so do I) at the huge amount of comex silver contracts out there and they far exceed the total global annual production.  I highlight this to you on a daily basis

(courtesy Craig Hemke/GATA/Sprott)

Craig Hemke: Comparing digital metals

 Section: 

3:35p Thursday, November 17, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Writing for Sprott Money, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke marvels at how the volume of Comex silver futures contracts overwhelms the world’s annual silver production, a disproportion unmatched by futures in other metals.

Hemke’s commentary is headlined “Comparing Digital Metals” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/comparing-digital-metals-craig-hemke.ht…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

My goodness, the average investor believes Bitcoin will hit $196,000 per coin

(courtesy zerohedge)

As Bitcoin Nears $8000, American Investors Plan To ‘HODL’ Until It Hits $196,000

Overnight saw the price of Bitcoin surge to $7997 following Zimbabwe chaos and defaults in Venezuela, rebounding from ‘the world is ending’ $5555 last weekend.

However, if American investors are to be believed, the cryptocurrency has a long way to go before they are selling

As CoinTelegraph reports, a new survey among Americans indicates that the average investor will not coimpletely exit Bitcoin until its price hits $196,000…

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

LendEdu commissioned a survey in November 2017 of 564 Americans who had invested in Bitcoin. While surveys have been done in the past to gauge the awareness of the general public about Bitcoin, this survey focused on American Bitcoin investors and their sentiments.

We have come a long way from 2015, when 65% of Americans surveyed didn’t know what Bitcoin was. The questions asked in the survey ranged from their reasons for investing in Bitcoin to when they would sell all their Bitcoins.

Sell all your Bitcoin?

The average price at which the survey respondents said that they will sell all their Bitcoins is $196,166 per Bitcoin. This represents 30x the value of Bitcoin prevailing at the time of the survey. It is to be noted that this is the price at which the respondents will sell all their Bitcoins. Almost a third (32.62%) have sold some of their Bitcoins since they started investing. It is tempting to book profits, given how the price of Bitcoin has rallied in the last year.

Most of the respondents plan to hold their Bitcoins at least one year, with only 16.49% planning to sell sooner than that.According to the survey, 21% of Bitcoin investors plan to hold on to their coins for at least seven years, and 11.7% say they will hold the currency for 10 years or longer.

Store of value or speculative investment?

While pundits debate whether people are investing in Bitcoin because they treat it as a store of value or as a speculative investment, the survey results indicate something completely different. According to LendEdu:

“The most popular selection, chosen by 40.78 percent of respondents, was “I believe Bitcoin is a world changing technology.” It is interesting to see that the plurality of Bitcoin investors are backing the technology as the primary reason for investing. Often, financial professionals speculate that Bitcoin investors are chasing a big payout.”

It seems that the naysayers are wrong, and these aren’t merely “greater fools” chasing huge gains. Instead, American Bitcoin investors are apparently sophisticated enough to realize the value of the project’s technology.

The next largest group of respondents see Bitcoin as something akin to digital gold:

“The second most popular reason why investors liked Bitcoin, chosen by 21.81 percent of respondents, was for the possibility of long term storage of value of it. Many financial professionals often compare Bitcoin to precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum. For centuries, investors have used precious metals as a way to diversify away from government backed currency.”

Worried About Safety

Another big takeaway from the survey is that almost half (44.15%) of the respondents were worried about the technological safety of their Bitcoins. This isn’t surprising, considering high profile cases such as Mt. Gox. That exchange, the largest in the world by volume, went bust and its former CEO was arrested in Japan on embezzlement charges. He has pleaded not guilty.

In addition to the ill-fated Mt. Gox, numerous other exchanges have faced security problems. Multiple exchanges have been hacked and their customers’ Bitcoins have been lost. While Bitcoin holders can follow certain practices like keeping their Bitcoins in cold storage to increase security, the survey shows that ordinary investors continue to worry about the safety of their coins.

Gold trading today:

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN AT 6.6330/shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN AT 16.34 POINTS .48% / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 180.28 POINTS OR 0.20%
2. Nikkei closed UP 45.68 POINTS OR 0.20% /USA: YEN FALLS TO 112.61

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN  /USA dollar index FALLS TO 93.75/Euro RISES TO 1.1796

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO . +.036/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 114.07/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 55.27 and Brent: 61.62

3f Gold DOWN/Yen DWON

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.378%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.822% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.533%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 5.215???

3k Gold at $1282.60 silver at:17.09: 6 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 34/100 in roubles/dollar) 59.35

3m oil into the 56 dollar handle for WTI and 62 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT A SMALL SIZED DEVALUATION SOUTHBOUND

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.61 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9918 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1700 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.378%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.365% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.813% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Mueller Subpoena Spooks Dollar, Sends European Stocks, US Futures Lower

Yesterday’s torrid, broad-based rally looked set to continue overnight until early in the Japanese session, when the USD tumbled and dragged down with it the USDJPY, Nikkei, and US futures following a WSJ report that Robert Mueller had issued a subpoena to more than a dozen top Trump administration officials in mid October.

And as traders sit at their desks on Friday, U.S. index futures point to a lower open as European stocks fall, struggling to follow Asian equities higher as the euro strengthened at the end of a tumultuous week. Chinese stocks dropped while Indian shares and the rupee gain on Moody’s upgrade. The MSCI world equity index was up 0.1% on the day, but was heading for a 0.1% fall on the week. The dollar declined against most major peers, while Treasury yields dropped and oil rose.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index fluctuated before turning lower as much as 0.3% in brisk volumes, dropping towards the 200-DMA, although about 1% above Wednesday’s intraday low; weakness was observed in retail, mining, utilities sectors. In the past two weeks, the basic resources sector index is down 6%, oil & gas down 5.8%, autos down 4.9%, retail down 3.4%; while real estate is the only sector in green, up 0.1%. The Stoxx 600 is on track to record a weekly loss of 1.3%, adding to last week’s sell-off amid sharp rebound in euro, global equity pullback. The Euro climbed for the first time in three days after ECB President Mario Draghi said he was optimistic for wage growth in the region, although stressed the need for patience, speaking in Frankfurt. European bonds were mixed. The pound pared some of its earlier gains after comments from Brexit Secretary David Davis signaling a continued stand-off in negotiations with the European Union.

In Asia, the Nikkei 225 took its time to catch up to the WSJ report that US Special Counsel Mueller has issued a Subpoena for Russia-related documents from Trump campaign officials, although reports pointing to North Korea conducting ‘aggressive’ work on the construction of a ballistic missile submarine helped the selloff. The Japanese blue-chip index rose as much as 1.8% in early dealing, but the broad-based dollar retreat led to the index unwinding the bulk of its gains; the index finished the session up 0.2% as the yen jumped to the strongest in four-weeks. Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.2% with IT, healthcare and telecoms leading the way, as utilities lagged. Mainland Chinese stocks fell, with the Shanghai Comp down circa 0.5% as the PBoC’s reversel in liquidity injections (overnight net drain of 10bn yuan) did little to boost risk appetite, as Kweichou Moutai (viewed as a bellwether among Chinese blue chips) fell sharply. This left the index facing its biggest weekly loss in 3 months, while the Hang Seng rallied with IT leading the way higher. Indian stocks and the currency advanced after Moody’s Investors Service raised the nation’s credit rating.

The dollar was pressured even as tax reform moved a step forward given Trump-Russia probe came back into focus. Two-year Treasury yield hit a fresh high and bonds slipped. The euro stayed on course to its best week in two months as Draghi remains bullish on prospects of higher wages; the kiwi hit its lowest level since June 2016.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury yield curve remained on investors’ radar, reaching its flattest levels in a decade, reflecting a belief that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a tax overhaul expected to boost share prices if it becomes law. The legislative battle now shifts to the Senate. As Bloomberg notes, as “Washington took one step closer to tax reform and China’s central bank injected the most cash since January into its financial system this week, investors have been trying to decide if resilient global growth and strong earnings forecasts warrant sticking it out in equities. Lofty valuations contributed to fund managers paring back some exposure after global shares reached record highs earlier this month.”

As earnings season drew to a close with 90 percent of U.S. and European companies having reported, analysts said results were supportive but weaker than the previous quarters. “While they look good overall, the strong momentum apparent since Q1 is now fading,” said Societe Generale analysts, adding that consensus earnings estimates are no longer being raised for U.S. or euro zone stocks.

As also reported on Thursday, Fed’s Williams suggested that central banks should consider unconventional policy tools for use in the future, including higher inflation targets and income targeting. Williams also suggested that negative rates need to be on list of potential tools if the US enters a recession, even as he said that a December hike, followed by 3 hikes in 2018 is perfectly reasonable. “What really matters is gradual normalisation not timing, should raise rates to around 2.5% in the next couple of years” he said adding that “Low inflation in a way is lucky as it allows strong growth, however, if it does not pick up over the next few years he will re-think the rate path.”

Oil prices were on track for weekly losses, slipping from two-year highs hit last week on signs that U.S. supply is rising and could potentially undermine OPEC’s efforts to tighten the market. U.S. light crude stood at $55.53 a barrel, up 0.7 percent on the day but still within its trading range in the past couple of days. It was down 2.1 percent on the week. Brent futures hit a two-week low of $61.08 a barrel but last stood 0.3 percent higher at $61.53. It was down 3.1 percent for the week.

Economic data today includes housing starts, building permits.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,583.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 384.06
  • MSCI Asia up 0.4% to 170.15
  • MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.5% to 558.90
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 22,396.80
  • Topix up 0.1% to 1,763.76
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 29,199.04
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,382.91
  • Sensex up 0.8% to 33,377.55
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,957.25
  • Kospi down 0.03% to 2,533.99
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to 0.387%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1795
  • Brent Futures up 0.7% to $61.78/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to 1.572%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 1.548%
  • Brent Futures up 0.7% to $61.78/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,282.59
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 93.69

Top Overnight News

  • House Republicans pass tax bill, while Senate Finance Committee approves different version
  • Special Counsel Robert Mueller is said to have served President Donald Trump’s election campaign a subpoena in mid-October seeking documents related to Russia contacts
  • ECB President Mario Draghi said he was confident for wage growth in the euro area
  • While U.K. Brexit Secretary David Davis said there would be some clarity on the Britain’s divorce bill with the European Union in a “a few more weeks,” there are signs that talks with EU leaders are in a new stand-off
  • Japanese PM Shinzo Abe says he will push through initiatives to boost productivity and compile a new economic policy package next month
  • Canada is open to a Mexican proposal to review the North American Free Trade Agreement every five years instead of ending the deal automatically if not renegotiated, which the U.S. had demanded, Reuters reports, citing two unidentified government sources
  • Senate Panel Approves Tax Plan as GOP Leaders Gird for Battle
  • Murdoch Has His Pick of Suitors as He Ponders Fox’s Fate; Sky Rises Most Since June on Interest From Comcast, Verizon
  • Chinese Stocks Tumble as State Media Warning Triggers Selloff
  • India’s First Moody’s Upgrade in 14 Years Bets on Reforms
  • Draghi Says Confidence on Inflation Will Help Drive Wage Gains
  • China Issues Draft Rules to Curb Asset Management Product Risks
  • Bitcoin Flirts With Record $8,000 High, Leaving Sell-Off Behind
  • PDVSA Looks Like a ‘Zero’ to Man Who Ran Elliott’s Argentina Bet
  • Manafort Spent Millions on Home Updates But Numbers Don’t Add Up
  • Tesla Seals Order From Michigan Grocery Chain for Semi Trucks
  • Luxoft Holding Second Quarter Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates
  • JPMorgan’s Gu Sees ‘Very Robust’ Pipeline for Hong Kong IPOs

In Asia, the Nikkei 225 took its time to catch up to a report suggesting that US Special Counsel Mueller has issued a Subpoena for Russia-related documents from Trump campaign officials, although reports pointing to North Korea conducting ‘aggressive’ work on the construction of a ballistic missile submarine probably helped the selloff. The Japanese blue-chip index rose as much as 1.8% in early dealing, but the broad-based dollar retreat led to the index unwinding the bulk of its gains; the index finished the session up 0.2%. Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.2% with IT, healthcare and telecoms leading the way, as utilities lagged. Mainland Chinese stocks fell, with the Shanghai Comp down circa 0.4% as the PBoC’s injections have done little to underscore risk appetite, as Kweichou Moutai (viewed as a bellwether among Chinese blue chips) fell sharply. This left the index facing its biggest weekly loss in 3 months, while  the Hang Seng rallied with IT leading the way higher. The PBoC injected a net CNY 810bln this week, against a net drain of CNY 230bln last week. Japanese PM Abe promised to rid the country of deflation once and for all. He pledged to use all policy tools, including tax reforms and deregulation, to push up wages in order to put an end to the country’s persistent deflation he also noted that he wants to increase pressure on North Korea along with the international community. Japanese Finance Minister Aso stated that Japan is to continue to firmly escape deflation. South Korea’s FX authority warned that the pace of the KRW’s gains has been fast. A BoK official warned that the KRW has appreciated fast in a short time, and reiterates that FX authorities are monitoring the situation. Moody’s raised India’s sovereign rating to Baa2 from Baa3, outlook to stable from positive.

Top Asian News

  • India Rating Raised by Moody’s as Reforms Boost Growth Potential
  • China to Rein Risks in Asset Management Industry
  • China Warning Wipes $6 Billion From Stock Loved by Goldman
  • Erdogan Says Turkey Has Withdrawn Troops From NATO Exercise
  • China Stocks Cap Worst Week Since August as Moutai Battered

European bourses trading modestly lower this morning, with downbeat earnings weighing sentiment, while the spill-over from a soft Asian session has dented risk in Europe. Vivendi shares had been lower as much as 2% after a weak earnings update. FTSE 100 slipping slight amid the strength in GBP, which is back above 1.32 against the greenback. Comments from ECB’s Draghi have sparked some additional movement, as while largely sticking to the post-October 26 policy meeting presser he appeared more confident about the growth and inflation outlook (economic activity more self-propelling, underlying inflation to converge with headline etc). Hence, a decline in Bunds below parity to a 162.50 low, but again not yet posing a real threat to more substantial downside targets/supports. Market contacts suggest that 162.48 needs to be breached from an intraday chart perspective to bring Thursday’s 162.38 Eurex base into contention, and recall there are more/bigger stops anticipated below 162.36. On the upside, assuming 162.48 holds, yesterday’s 162.82 session high is the first proper line of resistance. Gilts have also retreated into negative territory alongside Bunds and USTs, to 124.45 vs 124.77 at best and their 124.72 previous settlement.

Top European News

  • We’ll Wait for U.K. Brexit Concessions, EU Leaders Tell May
  • From EON to Fortum: How to Save Nasdaq’s Fading Power Market
  • Carige Talks With Underwriters Continue as Deadline Looms
  • Elior Plunges Most on Record as Hurricane Irma Wrecks Party
  • Norway Idea to Exit Oil Stocks Is ‘Shot Heard Around the World’

In FX, the USD is down again, but off worst levels seen so far this week as the Index holds within a 93.500-93.900 broad range. Some respite for Dollar from progress on the tax reform bill, but another Russian-related probe into Trump’s election campaign has capped the upside. The Euro was underpinned by upbeat comments from ECB President Draghi, and holding close to 1.1800 vs the Usd. Hefty option expiries still in play from 1.1790-1.1800 through 1.18250 and up to 1.1840-50. The Yen regaining a safe-haven bid amid the latest US political challenge against the President, with Usd/Jpy down to new multi-week
lows sub-112.50. AUD/NZD is the biggest G10 losers on broad risk-off sentiment and the recovering Greenback, with Aud/Usd back below 0.7600 and Nzd/Usd even weaker under the 0.6800 handle. Note, cross flow also weakening the Kiwi as Aud/Nzd trades back at 1.1100+ levels.

In commodities, Brent and WTI crude futures trading higher by 0.4% and 1.3% respectively, the latter making a break above yesterday’s at USD 55.59, however has met resistance at the USD 56 handle. Iraq/Kurd oil flow to Ceyhan rises to 254k bpd, according to Port Agent

Looking at the day ahead, a slightly quieter end to the week although the ECB’s Draghi is due to give a keynote address on “Europe into a new era – how to seize the opportunities”. The Bundesbank’s Weidmann is also slated to speak while the Fed’s Williams speaks in the evening. US housing starts for October and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity index for November are the data highlights.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.19m, prior 1.13m; MoM, est. 5.59%, prior -4.7%
  • 8:30am: Building Permits, est. 1.25m, prior 1.22m; MoM, est. 2.04%, prior -4.5%
  • 10am: MBA Mortgage Foreclosures, prior 1.29%; Mortgage Delinquencies, prior 4.24%
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 20.5, prior 23

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Maybe the S&P 500 will be the new hard currency of the world as nothing seems to break it at the moment. After a very nervous last week (longer in HY and EM) for markets, the S&P 500 closed +0.82% last night (best day since September 11th) and for all the recent fury and angst is only 0.34% off its’ all-time closing high. The Nasdaq gained 1.30% to a fresh all time high and the Stoxx 600 was also up for the first time in eight days. The positive reaction seems to have started in Asia yesterday, in part as commodity prices stabilised somewhat and news that China’s PBoC injected cash with the largest reverse repo operation since January. Then US markets got an additional boost from Cisco guiding to its first revenue gain in eight quarters and Wal-Mart posting its strongest US sales in more than eight years. There was also a little sentiment boost from the House passing its tax bill.

This morning in Asia, markets are strengthening further. The Nikkei (+0.11%), Hang Seng (+0.78%) and Kospi (+0.28%) are all modestly up while the Shanghai Comp. is down 0.55% as we type. Moody’s upgraded India’s sovereign bond rating for the first time since 2004. It’s one notch higher to Baa2/Stable (also one notch higher than S&P’s BBB-) with the agency citing ongoing progress in economic and institutional reforms. India’s 10y bond yields is down c10bp this morning to 6.96%. Elsewhere, UST 10y has partly reversed yesterday’s moves and is trading c2bp lower.

Now back to US tax reforms, which is a small step closer to resolution. The House has voted (227-205) to pass its version of the tax reform bill despite 13 Republicans dissenting. President Trump tweeted “a big step toward fulfilling our promise to deliver historic tax cuts…by the end of the year”. Notably, the more challenging task may now begin in terms of passing the Senate’s version where fiscal constraints are tighter and the Republicans only have 52 of the 100 seats in the Chamber. Overnight, the Senate Finance Committee voted to approve its revised tax package, so a full chamber vote could come as early as the  week after Thanksgiving. If passed, the two versions of the tax bill will need to be somehow reconciled. Our US economist believes there is a decent chance that some version of tax reform can be achieved, but this is likely to be a Q1 event with potential stumbling blocks along the way.

Turning to the various Brexit headlines, PM May flew out last night to Sweden for an informal summit with European leaders seeking to kick start the stalled Brexit talks. She is expected to meet with the Swedish Premier and Irish counterpart before meeting with EU President Tusk on Friday. Following on, the Brexit Secretary Davis noted that we have to “wait a few more weeks” for clarity on how much UK is willing to pay in the divorce settlement. Elsewhere, Goldman Sachs CEO Blankfein tweeted “many (fellow business leaders) wish for a confirming vote on (Brexit)…so much at stake, why not make sure consensus still there?”

Moving onto central bankers’ commentaries. In the US, the Fed’s Mester sounded reasonably balanced and remains supportive of continued gradual policy tightening. She noted “anecdotal feedback from business contacts suggest they are increasing wages”, but it’s going to be hard to see strong wage growth because productivity growth is low. Overall, she sees “good reasons” that inflation will rise back to 2% goal, but “it’s going to take a little longer…”

The Fed’s Williams noted one more rate hike this year and three more in 2018 remains a “reasonable guess” subject to incoming data. Finally, the Fed’s Kaplan  reiterated the Fed would continue to make progress towards achieving its 2% inflation target, but noted that the neutral fed funds rate is “not that far away”.

In the UK, BOE Governor Carney reiterated that interest rates would probably rise “a couple of times over the next few years” if the economy evolved in line with the Bank’s projections, but also cautioned that the fundamental economic impacts of Brexit will only be “known over a very long period of time”. That said, he noted the BOE will remain nimble and support the economy no matter what the result of the Brexit negotiations will be. Elsewhere, Chancellor Hammond has confirmed that the Treasury does not plan to change the inflation gauge that the BOE targets from CPI to CPIH – which includes owner occupied housing costs and is the new preferred price measure by the Office for National Statistics.

Now recapping other markets performance yesterday. Within the S&P, only the energy and utilities sector were modestly in the red (-0.58%), partly weighed down by Norway’s sovereign wealth fund plans to sell c$40bln of energy related stocks to make it less vulnerable to the sector. Elsewhere, gains were led by telco, consumer staples and tech stocks. European markets were all higher, with the DAX and CAC up c0.6% while the FTSE 100 was the relative underperformer at +0.19%. The VIX index dropped 10.4% to 11.76.

Over in government bonds, UST 10y yields rose 5.3bp following the House’s approval of the tax plans and a solid beat for industrial production, while Gilts also rose 2.3bp, in part due to slightly stronger retail sales figures. Other core bond yields were little changed (10y Bunds flat, OATs -0.4bp), while Italian yields marginally underperformed (+0.5bp), partly reflecting that Banca Carige has failed to get banks to underwrite its planned share sale – making a bail in more likely, as well as recent polls (eg: Ipsos) showing the 5SM party taking a modest lead versus peers. Elsewhere, some of the recent pressure in the HY space appears to be reversing with the Crossover index 9.2bp tighter.

Key currencies were little changed, with the US dollar index up 0.13% while Sterling gained 0.18% and Euro fell 0.18%. In commodities, WTI oil dipped 0.34% yesterday but is trading marginally higher this morning after Saudi Arabia reaffirmed its willingness to extend oil cuts at the November 30 OPEC meeting. Elsewhere, precious metals were slightly higher (Gold +0.03%; Silver +0.54%) while other base metals continue to softened, although losses are moderating (Copper -0.17%; Zinc -0.84%; Aluminium -0.35%).

Away from the markets, our US economists have published their latest outlook for the US economy. They note the US economy is on good footing for continued above-trend growth in 2018 and beyond. Overall, they believe private sector fundamentals are broadly sound, the labour market has more than achieved full employment and financial conditions are highly supportive of growth. On real GDP growth, their forecast for 2018 is unchanged at 2.3%, but 2019 is up a tenth to 2.1% while growth in 2020 is expected to slow to 1.5% as monetary policy tightening gains traction. The Unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5% by early 2019, so although inflation should remain low through year-end, our team’s medium-term view that core inflation should normalise is intact. Hence, in terms of rates outlook, they still expect the next rate increase in December, followed by three hikes in 2018 and four more in 2019. Elsewhere, tax reform is a wild card, though it faces significant political challenges. Conversely, potential disruptions to trade policy would be a negative development. For more detail, refer to their note.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the October IP was above expectations at 0.9% mom (vs. 0.5%) and 2.9% yoy – the highest since January 2015, in part as the post storm recovery efforts gets underway. Aggregate capacity utilization was also beat at 77% (vs. 76.3% expected) – highest since April 2015 and the NAHB housing market index was also above at 70 (vs. 67) – highest since March. Elsewhere, the November Philly Fed index was slightly below expectations but still solid at 22.7 (vs. 24.6 expected), with both the new orders and employment indices above 20. Finally, the weekly initial jobless claims was slightly higher (249k vs. 235k expected), perhaps impacted by the delayed filings following the storms and the Veteran’s day holiday, while continuing claims fell to a new 44 year low (1,860k vs. 1,900k expected).

In the UK, core retail sales (ex-auto fuel) for October slightly beat expectations, at 0.1% mom (vs. flat expected) and -0.3% yoy (vs. -0.4% expected). In the Eurozone, the final reading for October CPI was unrevised at 0.1% mom and 1.4% yoy, but France’s 3Q unemployment was slightly higher than expected at 9.7% (vs. 9.5%).

Looking at the day ahead, a slightly quieter end to the week although the ECB’s Draghi is due to give a keynote address on “Europe into a new era – how to seize the opportunities”. The Bundesbank’s Weidmann is also slated to speak while the Fed’s Williams speaks in the evening. US housing starts for October and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity index for November are the data highlights.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 16.34 points or .48% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 180.28 pts or 0.28% / The Nikkei closed UP 45.68 POINTS OR 0.20%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.24%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.6330/Oil UP to 56.12 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.10 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6330. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WEAKER TO THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.6405 //ONSHORE YUAN WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE WEAKER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS  VERY HAPPY TODAY.

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

NORTH KOREA/

Not good:  Rogue state North Korea has been aggressively working on new ballistic missile submarines according to satellite images

(courtesy zerohedge)

Satellite Images Reveal North Korea “Aggressively” Working On Ballistic Missile Submarine

According to the latest analysis of satellite imagery taken at North Korea’s Sinpo South Shipyard on November 5 conducted by the 38 North website, Pyongyang is pursuing an “aggressive schedule” to build its first operational ballistic missile submarine.

Continued movement of parts and components into and out of the parts yards adjacent to the construction halls indicates an ongoing shipbuilding program, the analysts concluded. “The presence of what appear to be sections of a submarine’s pressure hull in the yards suggests construction of a new submarine, possibly the SINPO-C ballistic missile submarine (SSB)- the follow-on to the current SINPO-class experimental ballistic missile submarine,” 38 North said in the report published today.

Additionally, Imagery from November 5 shows two larger circular objects that may be sections of a submarine’s pressure hull: “The diameter of the first object was approximately 7.1 meters, while the diameter of the second starts at approximately 7.1 meters and reduces to approximately 6.1 meters. The larger object has what appears to be two internal cross members that could be used to support decks or internal equipment.”

If correct, that would imply that the shipbuilding program is for a submarine with a beam broader (in width) than the ROMEO-class attack submarine (6.7 meters)—meaning it is potentially a SINPO-C SSB, the reported follow-on to the SINPO-class SSBA.


Separately, at the test stand, imagery from November 5 shows an object visible at the top of the service tower that appears to be either a launch canister support or launch canister.

This object does not appear in previous satellite or ground images of the test stand. While there is no additional activity of note in the immediate area, the service tower remains in place. During the earlier development of the Pukguksong-1/KN-11, it was removed after testing campaigns. Therefore, the continued presence of this object suggests ongoing SLBM ejection tests. If correct, this is likely a continuation of the ejection test campaign reported during July of this year.[4] Regardless, additional ejection tests should be expected in the future for further development of the Pukguksong-1, a potential Pukguksong-3, or other future SLBMs.

Such a test would also be valuable for validating missile launch systems for a new class of SSBs.

And while images of a test stand indicated continued experimenting with a mechanism for ejection launch of missiles from a submarine, so far, the report said, no activity could be seen suggesting preparations for a new test of a submarine-launched missile.

Last month, The Diplomat magazine quoted a U.S. government source as saying U.S. military intelligence had detected a new diesel-electric submarine under construction at Sinpo and dubbed it the Sinpo-C. It said the submarine was likely a larger successor to North Korea’s single experimental ballistic missile submarine.

Another article in The Diplomat last month quoted a U.S. government source as saying that North Korea had tested a new solid fuel engine sometime between Oct. 15 and Oct. 21. U.S. intelligence officials have declined to comment on this.

3b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3c CHINA REPORT.

 China warns that the market is growing too fast.  After a huge liquidity boost early in the week, China drained a bit on Friday
(courtesy zerohedge)

Traders Puzzled After Chinese Media Warning Triggers Market Selloff

Overnight we highlighted that despite a massive weekly net liquidity injection by the PBOC (which ended on Friday when the PBOC drained a net 10bn in liquidity) Chinese stocks failed to hold on to Thursday’s gains, and resumed their slump…

 

… headed for their worst week in 7 months.

However, it was more than the simply a question of liquidity flows, because it once again appears that Beijing is involved in micromanaging daily stock moves, only unlike the summer of 2015 when China blew a huge stock bubble in a few months, which then promptly burst leaving China scrambling for the next year to figure out how to avoid contagion, this time Xinhua had a different message: sell.

According to Bloomberg, the reason why Chinese stocks – led by Shenzhen shares – slumped on Friday, is due to a warning by state media that one of the nation’s hottest stocks was climbing too fast, which in turn triggered a selloff. And while the SHCOMP closed down 0.5%, the Shenzhen Composite Index closed down more than 2%, with liquor makers and technology companies that had outperformed this year among the biggest losers.

The catalyst that sparked the selloff? China’s biggest liquor maker, Kweichow Moutai, which plunged 3.9% – after tumbling as much as 5.8%, its largest decline since August 2015 – after Xinhua News Agency said its China’s biggest “should rise at a slower pace.” Other liquor makers fell in sympathy, Wuliangye Yibin slid as much as 5.3% in Shenzhen, the most since July 2016, and Luzhou Laojiao fell 4.7%, although the stocks, which have more than doubled this year, pared their losses by the close.

In commentary published in the state-owned newspaper, the author said “short-term speculation in Kweichow Moutai shares will hurt value investing and long-term investment will deliver best returns.”

The bizarre and unusual critique – traditionally China’s media mouthpieces have only urged stocks to go higher, never lower – capped a week that saw a rout in Chinese sovereign bonds spill into the equity market amid concern about a government deleveraging campaign and faster inflation. For the week, the Shenzhen gauge fell 4.2%, its worst loss since May 2016. The Shanghai benchmark declined 1.5 per cent.

“The Xinhua warning was the last straw,” said Ken Chen, a Shanghai-based analyst with KGI Securities Co. “Expectations of worsening liquidity conditions are also hurting stocks.”

In retrospect, perhaps the Xinhua warning was not so strange: after China’s debt-fueled stock market bubble burst in 2015, wiping out $5 trillion of value, Chinese policy makers have acted to restrain excessive speculation in equities.

Xinhua is concerned that a runaway rally in a heavyweight like Kweichow will hamper the stability of the overall market,” said Hao Hong, chief strategist at Bocom International Holding Co in Hong Kong.

And while one can wonder why China is suddenly so concerned about even the hint of potential vol spike in the stock market – suggesting that even a modest selloff could have dramatic consequences for the Chinese financial sector – it is certainly strange that whereas even China is acting to restrain the euphoria of its citizens over fears of what happens during the next bubble, in other “developed” countries, the local central bankers, politicians and TV pundits have no problem in forcing retail investors to go all risk assets when the market is at all time highs.

As for China, it will have truly gone a full “180”, if in a few months time instead of arresting sellers as it did in the summer of 2015, Beijing throw stock buyers in prison next.

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

The UN warns of the huge mistake that Europe mad by bringing in huge numbers of refigees. They also state that Europe must be ready for a 2nd wage

(courtesy zerohedge)

“We Paid A Heavy Price For This Mistake” – Europe To Be Flooded With 2nd Refugee Wave, UN Warns

Back in 2015, at the height of Angela Merkel’s “open door” admission policy which in addition to granting German entry to over 1 million refugees, many of whom turned out to be radical jihadists and sent her approval rating crashing to the lowest in her career, the German chancellor realized that the great migration wave from the middle east into Central Europe, originally meant to reinvigorate Europe’s aging demographics (and prompted Deutsche Bank to even boost its German GDP forecast), maybe was not such a great idea, and was just not worth the risks and trade offs.

And while in the subsequent two years Germany in particular, and Central Europe in general managed to avoid another mass migration wave with most refugees gated either in Turkey or Italy, a second wave of migration into Europe now may be imminent as the situation in refugee camps in Africa and the Middle East is only getting worse, the head of the UN World Food Programme said. He added there is a clear link between hunger and migration.

Speaking to German newspaper Die Zeit, the executive director of the UN’s World Food Programme, David Beasley, said that living conditions, mostly food distribution, in refugee camps in crisis-affected regions had deteriorated dramatically before the European migrant crisis struck in 2015.

“We paid a heavy price for this mistake and I’m afraid we’re about to make it once again,” Beasley believes. According to the UN food chief, while many asylum seekers wanted to stay in their home region, the lack of food has driven them away. “If they don’t have enough food, they will leave. And many of them would go to Europe,” Beasley said.

Beasley also warned that while the UN has been seemingly making progress in fighting world hunger over the last 10 years, the number of people suffering hunger worldwide has now dramatically increased again; he added that the food crisis is caused mainly by wars and climate change. Yemen is threatened by famine because Saudi Arabia is blocking the country’s ports, preventing aid deliveries, urging Gulf countries not to stand aside but instead join the food aid program for crisis-stricken regions, Beasley said.

A WFP report from March says that some 108 million people across the globe faced “crisis food insecurity or worse,” a dramatic increase from 2015 when the figure was 80 million. The document says that major food crises were fueled by “conflict, record-high food prices and abnormal weather patterns.”

The number of asylum seekers in the EU during the second quarter of 2017 reached 149,000, according to statistical data from Eurostat. The applications mainly came from Syria, Nigeria and Afghanistan. Germany, Italy, France, Greece and the UK account for almost 80 percent of all first-time applicants in the union, the data shows.

Of course, for Europe’s political oligarchs none of the above social dimensions of the migrant tragedy matters, but one thing does: the chart shown below which demonstrated that as of December 2015, there was a direct correlation between the approval rating of establishment politicians and the migrant flood hitting Europe.

If Beasley is right, and Europe is indeed about to be flooded with millions of disgruntled migrants, the anti-establishment wave that brought brexit and countless subsequent tremors, will seem like a walk in the park next to the nationalistic backlash that will soon follow.

end

5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey

Funny!! Erdogan withdraws his troops form NATO exercises in Norway after his name and the founding father of modern Turkey, Ataturk were used on an enemy chart

(courtesy zereohedge)

Turkey Withdraws Troops From NATO Drill Saying Erdogan’s Name Was Used On “Enemy Chart”

Turkey has reportedly  withdrawn its troops from a NATO military drill in Norway after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Friday that his name and the picture of Turkish Republic’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk were used in an “enemy chart”.

“There was an incident in Norway,” Erdogan told ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party members in capital Ankara.

“They used an enemy chart in Norway. In that chart, there was my name and [Mustafa Kemal] Ataturk’s picture.”

The president said he was informed about the issue by Chief of General Staff Gen. Hulusi Akar and EU Affairs Minister Omer Celik.

“They told me that they are withdrawing our 40 soldiers from there [Norway],” Erdogan said.

“I told them to do that immediately. There can be no alliance like that.”

Ally or enemy? Perhaps Monday’s trial of Reza Zarrab will shed more light on that question.

end

The Turkish lira plunges to 3.9 to the dollar and the 10 yr bond spiked to 12.5% as inflation is gripping this nation. The lira further fell when Erdogan tells the Central bank that it is on the wrong path.

so go central bank independence.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Turkish Lira, Bonds Plunge After Erdogan Tells Central Bank “It’s On The Wrong Path”

Turkish lira plunged near record low 3.9/USD this morning and bond yields spiked over 12.5% for the first time in history as investor anxiety escalated following President Erdogan’s attack on the nation’s central bank, decrying it’s “wrong path.”

Currency crisis…

And bond market panic…

As Bloomberg reports, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signaled an end to his uneasy truce with the new central bank chief, attacking the institution now run by Governor Murat Cetinkaya for its repeated revisions to economic targets and “wrong path” to tackle soaring inflation.

“They say central banks are independent so we shouldn’t interfere. This is the end result because we haven’t interfered,” Erdogan said in a speech on Friday in Ankara.

“Results speak for themselves.”

“We will solve this, things can’t go on like this,” Erdogan said, vowing to step up a fight against what he calls the “interest rate lobby,” an alleged cabal of financiers and lobbyists that he says is conspiring to keep Turkey’s interest rates artificially high.

“We can’t make this a taboo,” he said, rejecting the idea that central bank independence means he shouldn’t comment on interest rate policy.

The comments come as a slew of economic stimulus measures implemented in the wake of a 2016 coup attempt have helped push growth up while driving core inflation to 11.8 percent in October, the highest since 2004.

“We’re back at Erdoganomics 101,” said Cristian Maggio, head of research at TD Securities in London.

“I would have expected him to start shouting at the central bank only once the lira was on a more solid footing versus the U.S. dollar and euro. We’re clearly not there yet, so that makes me think that he’s more concerned about growth, a concern that we share.”

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7.OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1796 UP .0018/ REACTING TO SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/ /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.61 DOWN 0.434(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/

GBP/USA 1.3200 UP .0002 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS/MAY IN TROUBLE WITH HER OWN PARTY/

USA/CAN 1.2744 DOWN .0014(CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 18 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1796; / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 16.34 POINTS OR .48% / Hang Sang CLOSED UP 180.28 POINTS OR 0.28% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.24% / EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED UP 45.68 POINTS OR 0.20%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 180.28 POINTS OR 0.28% / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.34 POINTS OR .48% /Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.24% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED UP 45.68 POINTS OR 0.20%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1283.10

silver:$17.09

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.365% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)

The 30 yr bond yield 2.813 DOWN 1 IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 93.75 DOWN 18 CENT(S) from YESTERDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.983% UP 1/2 in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.036% DOWN 1 & 1/2  in basis point yield from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.555% UP 1 IN basis point yield from THURSDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.836 UP 0 POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 29 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.361% DOWN 2 IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1793 UP.0015 (Euro UP 15 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 112.06 DOWN 0.980(Yen UP 98 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3205 UP 0.0015( POUND UP 15 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2781 UP.00231 Canadian dollar DOWN 23 Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $56.44

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This afternoon, the Euro was UP 15 to trade at 1.1793

The Yen ROSE to 112.06 for a GAIN of 98 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND ROSE BY 15 basis points, trading at 1.3205/

The Canadian dollar FELL by 23 basis points to 1.2781 WITH WTI OIL RISING TO : $56.44

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.6270
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.036% DOWN 1 & 1/2  IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.338% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.7790 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.690 down 25 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/BREAKS RESISTANCE OF 92.00

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED DOWN 6.26 POINTS OR 0.08%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 53.49 POINTS OR 0.41%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 17.22 POINTS OR 0.32%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 78.30 POINTS OR 0.51%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 113.65 POINTS OR 0.22%

The Dow closed DOWN 100.12 POINTS OR .43%

NASDAQ WAS closed DOWN 10.50 Points OR 0.15% 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 56.44 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 62.60 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 59.19 DOWN 50/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 50 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO +.361% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$56.59

BRENT: $62.70

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.342% (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7778%

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1793 up .0015

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.14 DOWN 0.900

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.66 DOWN 27 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3215 : UP 17 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHT

Canadian dollar: 1.2770 DOWN  12 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.361%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Gold Gains As Stocks Slide, Yield Curve Crashes, & Dollar Dumps

Economic Data continues to surprise to the upside (compared to what had been terrible expectations)…is this as good as it gets?

But credit, the yield curve, and now stocks are not loving it…

Small Caps were the only major index green today…

The Dow and S&P 500- fell for the 2nd week in a row – something they haven’t done for 3 months…Small Caps best on the week (followed by Nasdaq thanks to yesterday’s panic buy)…

Futures show the crazy moves this week better..

VIX was slammed late on today in a desperate bid to get the S&P green on the week...

But while stocks rebounded briefly, FX carry wasn’t…

And nor was the bond market…

Big week for tax-related stocks…

SFIX went public today at $15…

While US HY bond prices ended the week higher (thanks to yesterday’s melt up)…but still remains well below its 200DMA…

US HY spreads rose for the 4th week in a row…

European HY Fund assets crashed to their lowest since June 2016…

Treasuries were mixed on the week with the front-end higher in yield and back-end lower….

The US Treasury yield curve crashed almost 10bps this week – the biggest flattening since Dec 2016 to its flattest since Nov 2007

Note that is the flattest 2s10s since Oct 2007… The last 3 times it was this flat, the US economy was in recession…

The Dollar Index had its worst week in over 2 months, dropping to 1-month lows… (this is also the first consective weekly decline in the dollar index since July)

Yen and Euro strength weighed the most on the dollar this week… (AUD and CAD were weaker as oil slipped)

USDJPY was clubbed like a baby seal this week (worst in 2 months) – (today was USDJPY’s worst drop since May). It seems 114.000 to 112.00 is the corridor…

Gold had its best week in over a month, surging back above its 50DMA towards the $1300 level…

GOLD

Bitcoin had another big week – getting as close to $8000 as possible… (up 45% from its lows last weekend)…

Finally, we note that in the weeks since MbS launched his ‘corruption’ crackdown in Saudi Arabia, only one asset has really shone…

END

LAST NIGHT

The dollar is slammed with the USA/Yen collapses on a report from the Wall Street Journal that the Trump campaign folks had to answer to a subpoena

(courtesy zerohedge)

Dollar Slammed, USDJPY Roiled On Trump Campaign Subpoena Report

it has been a rocky session for the dollar which has dumped to a 4-week low, dragging with it USDJPY, the Nikkei and Treasury yields – and to a lesser extend US equity futures – all of which have slumped in the Japanese am session, following a WSJ report that Robert Mueller’s team “caught the Trump campaign by surprise” in mid-October by issuing a document subpoena to more than a dozen top officials.

 

The campaign had previously been voluntarily complying with the special counsel’s requests for information, and had been sharing with Mr. Mueller’s team the documents it provided to congressional committees as part of their probes of Russian interference into the 2016 presidential election. The Trump campaign is providing documents in response to the subpoena on an “ongoing” basis, the person said.

If confirmed, this would be the first time Trump’s campaign has been ordered to turn over information to Mueller’s investigation, even if subpoena has not – for now – compelled any officials to testify before  Mueller’s grand jury.

According to Citi, and a handful of other desks,the news of the report is what initially sent the USDJPY below 113, at which point stop loss selling accelerated and has seen the pair tumble to 112.50 at last check.

While it took the other major currencies a while to catch on, the dollar eventually did selloff across the board, with cable and EUR leading the AUD and kiwi.  Meanwhile, the Korean won has surged, sending the USDKRW below 1,100, ignoring the latest jawboning and verbal intervention from Korean central bankers.

Still, not everyone is convinced and Citi for one, thinks the sell-off in US assets has been exaggerated due to diminished liquidity conditions and stop runs, especially since the news that Mueller issued a subpoena “doesn’t really have any implications for markets.”

Others, such as Westpac’s FX strategist Sean Callow, agree: “USD/JPY’s apparent fatigue is consistent with a speculative market already very short yen”he said, adding that “USD/JPY seems to have already factored in not only a Fed hike in December but some form of tax cut package as well.”

Furthermore, while the subpoena news may seem surprising, Citi’s Ding notes that “we already know that the investigation is ongoing and links between Russia and the Trump campaign are under scrutiny”, in other words the WSJ report was to be expected, even if the market appears to be overplaying it for the time being.

In any case, at least for now the mood is one of risk off, and in addition to the dollar, Nikkei, yields and US futures all heavy, Chinese stocks are also down with the Shanghai Comp -0.7% lower, although that may be more a function of the sharp reversal in PBOC liquidity injections, because after yesterday’s gargantuan 310Bn net reverse repo – and 810Bn net this week – today’s 10Bn liquidity drain once again prompted fears that the PBOC just may be serious about the deleveraging after all.

end

We have been harping on this for several years.  Today Yale Chief Investment officer has come out and stated that returns are going to be low from this point on and this will have a devastating effect on private pensions

(courtesy zerohedge)

Yale’s Endowment CIO Has Some Really Bad News For Public Pensions…

Public pensions all around the country like to play a clever little game that allows them to drastically understate the current value of their future liabilities and therefore pretend that their ponzi schemes are something other than insolvent frauds.  Of course, we’re talking about the artificially high discount rates that pension boards consistently use to understate their net underfunding levels…a topic that we’ve written about frequently over the years.

Alas, at least in the opinion of Yale’s Chief Investment Officer David Swensen, those 7.5% annual returns that pensions love to rely on, even if they’ve never managed to actually achieve them, are going to be increasingly difficult to hit over the coming years.  As Swensen told Bloombergdespite achieving a 13.5% annual return over the past 32 years, he is now preparing university officials for much lower returns averaging around 5% for the foreseeable future.

The investment chief, who was interviewed by former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, also said he’s expecting lower returns for the university’s endowment, which he’s run for 32 years with a 13.5 percent average annual rate of return.

For the past 12 to 18 months, Swensen said he has been warning university officials to expect much lower returns in the future, as little as 5 percent annually, which would be down from previous assumptions of 8.25 percent.

“It’s not a very popular change,” he said. “We’re victims of our own success.”

Swensen

Meanwhile, as we pointed out a couple of months ago (see: Pension Ponzi Exposed: Minnesota Underfunding Triples After Tweaking This One Small Assumption…), the state of Minnesota recently provided a beautiful illustration of exactly what happens when public pensions decide to ditch their inflated discount rates for more realistic assumptions…their net underfunding tripled to $50 billion…here’s more
from Bloomberg:

Minnesota’s debt to its workers’ retirement system has soared by $33.4 billion, or $6,000 for every resident, courtesy of accounting rules.

The jump caused the finances of Minnesota’s pensions to erode more than any other state’s last year as accounting standards seek to prevent
governments from using overly optimistic assumptions to minimize what they owe public employees decades from now. Because of changes in actuarial math, Minnesota in 2016 reported having just 53 percent of what it needed to cover promised benefits, down from 80 percent a year earlier, transforming it from one of the best funded state systems to the seventh worst, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The Minnesota’s teachers’ pension fund, which had $19.4 billion in assets as of June 30, 2016, is expected to go broke in 2052. As a result of the latest rules the pension has started using a rate of 4.7 percent to discount its liabilities, down from the 8 percent used previously. As a result, its liabilities increased by $16.7 billion.

Unfortunately, lower returns was only part of the bad news that Swensen had for U.S. investors as he described the current disconnect between “fundamental risks that we see all around the globe with the lack of volatility in our securities markets” as “profoundly troubling.”

David Swensen, Yale University’s longtime chief investment officer, said the lack of market volatility in the current geopolitical environment is a major concern and warned that another crash is possible.

“When you compare the fundamental risks that we see all around the globe with the lack of volatility in our securities markets, it’s profoundly troubling,” Swensen, 63, said Tuesday during remarks at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. That “makes me wonder if we’re not setting ourselves up for an ’87, or a ’98 or a 2008-2009,” he said, referring to previous market crises.

“The defining moments for portfolio management” came in those years, “and if you ignore that you’re not going to be able to manage your portfolio,” Swensen said.

Asked why Yale’s uncorrelated assets are higher now than in 2008, he said, “I’m not worried about the economy so much, what I’m concerned about is valuation.”

Of course, we’re sure these warnings will provoke pension managers all around the country to promptly reassess their optimistic return assumptions and adjust future pension benefits accordingly to preserve the solvency of their funds for future generations of pensioners…

I guess they never learn:  One Michigan bank has brought back the zero down mortgage (with higher costs down the road).  They are even covering the closing costs.
(courtesy zerohedge)

This Michigan Bank Just Brought Back The Zero-Down Mortgage; They’ll Even Cover Your Closing Costs

A small savings bank in Michigan, Flagstar Bank, has come up with a genius, innovative new mortgage product that they believe is going to be great for their investors and low-income housing buyers: the “zero-down mortgage.”  What’s better, Flagstar is even offering to pay the closing costs of their low-income future mortgage debtors.  Here’s more from HousingWire:

Under the program, Flagstar will gift the required 3% down payment to the borrower, plus up to $3,500 to be used for closing costs.

According to the bank, there is no obligation for borrowers who qualify to repay the down payment gift.

The program is available to only certain low- to moderate-income borrowers and borrowers in low- to moderate-income areas throughout Michigan.

Borrowers would not have to repay the down payment or closing costs. But a 1099 form to report the income would be issued to the Internal Revenue Service by the bank. So the gifts could be taxable, depending on the borrower’s financial picture.

Flagstar said borrowers who might qualify for its new program typically would have an annual income in the range of $35,000 to $62,000. The sales price of the home — which must be in qualifying areas — would tend to be in the range of $80,000 to $175,000.

Flagstar

Think it’s too good to be true?  Lakeshia Wiley of Detroit’s west side begs to differ…she recently went through Flagstar to purchase her new home and only had to come up with $350 of her own money.  Per the Detroit Free Press:

Lakeshia Wiley, 35, said she wouldn’t have been able to buy her first home without the Fifth Third Down Payment Assistance program and two other grants, including one from Southwest Solutions.

The brick home, built in 1951, is on Detroit’s west side, needed very little work and was priced at $50,000.

“I’m very excited every time I think about it. It’s beautiful. I love it,” Wiley said.

Wiley never expected to be able to buy a home, though, because she has had a hard time saving for a down payment.

“I didn’t think I’d be able to do it,” said the single mother who has two sons, ages 17 and 10, and a daughter, age 6. She works at a Detroit pharmacy.

Thanks to the down payment assistance and the grants, Wiley was able to buy her home in April. She had to bring less than $350 to the table at closing.

The Flagstar program is available in 18 counties in Michigan, and could be used for certain homes in Detroit and Flint, along with other cities.

Of course, we would highly encourage Flagstar to take a look back into ancient history for case studies on what happened the last time banks started peddling “innovative” mortgage products.  Here’s a summary of the Lehman Brothers case study:

Ironically, South Park also did some fascinating research on the topic:

(courtesy zerohedge)

How Tax Reform Can Still Blow Up: A Side-By-Side Comparison Of The House And Senate Tax Plans

To much fanfare, mostly out of president Trump, on Thursday the House passed their version of the tax bill 227-205 along party lines, with 13 Republicans opposing. The passage of the House bill was met with muted market reaction. The Senate version of the tax reform is currently going through the Senate Finance Committee for additional amendments and should be ready for a full floor debate in a few weeks. While some, like Goldman, give corporate tax cuts (if not broad tax reform), an 80% chance of eventually becoming law in the first quarter of 2018, others like UBS and various prominent skeptics, do not see the House and Senate plans coherently merging into a survivable proposal.

Indeed, while momentum seemingly is building for the tax plan, some prominent analysts believe there are several issues down the road that could trip up or even stall a comprehensive tax plan from passing the Congress, the chief of which is how to combine the House and Senate plans into one viable bill.

How are the two plans different? 

Below we present a side by side comparison of the two plans from Bank of America, which notes that the House and the Senate are likely to pass different tax plans with areas of disagreement (see table below). This means that the two chambers will need to form a conference committee to hash out the differences. There are three major friction points:

  1. the repeal of the state and local tax deductions (SALT),
  2. capping mortgage interest deductions and
  3. the delay in the corporate tax cut.

The House seems strongly opposed to fully repealing SALT and delaying the corporate tax cuts and the Senate could push back on changing the mortgage interest deductions. Finding compromise on these issues without disturbing other parts of the plan while keeping the price tag under the $1.5tn over 10 years could be challenging.

Here are the key sticking points per BofA:

  • Skinny ACA repeal: The repeal of the individual mandate is back on the table. It would free up approximately $300bn in revenue to pay for the tax plan. But this likely means no Democratic Senator will support the bill. This could prove costly as the Republicans can only afford to lose 2 votes and several Republican Senators are already on the fence on the tax plan.
  • Byrd Rule means tax plan might not hatch: Reconciliation directives allow the tax plan to add $1.5tn to the deficit in the first 10 years (See appendix for breakdown of the cost of each plan). However, rules in the Senate state that any bill passed under reconciliation has to be revenue neutral beyond the 10 year budget window. Given that the Republicans are hoping to make the corporate tax cuts permanent, it would mean that they would need to find additional revenue in the out years while sunsetting all other tax cut provisions (e.g. personal tax cuts). This will mean the personal tax code at best will revert back to current law or at worst roll back the cuts and preserve the repeal of the deduction which would amount to a tax increase on households after ten years. Currently, the Senate plan would let reduction in the personal tax rates, expansions of the standard deduction and child tax credit and other provisions expire after 2025. The court of public opinion could threaten the tax plan.

And while it remains to be seen if tax reform will pass the Senate, or like Obamacare repeal, it will get shot down by the like of McCain (and perhaps Corker), another key question, is whether the US even needs tax reform at this point – the Fed certainly could do without the added inflationary pressure – and whereas former Goldman COO and Trump’s econ advisor, Gary Cohn certainly thinks so, his former boss, Lloyd Blankfein disagrees. So does Bank of America, which maintains that at this stage of the business cycle, tax cuts are not needed to sustain the current expansion. Nevertheless, BofA concedes the passage of a comprehensive tax plan would likely lead to a short term boost to growth which would translate to further declines in the unemployment rate and higher inflation.

Then, as the economy begins to heat up, the Fed will likely lean against the economy by implementing a faster hiking cycle than currently projected, which will ultimately spark the next market crash, recession and financial crisis. Ironically, the seed of Trump’s own destruction would be planted by his biggest political victory yet (assuming tax reform passes, of course).

* * *

As a bonus, here is a simulation BofA ran using the Fed’s FRB/US model to calculate the potential costs of the tax plans. BofA ran its simulations assuming model consistent expectations for all sectors of the economy and using the inertial Taylor rule to set the path of the federal funds rate: “o simulate the impact of the fiscal stimulus brought on by the tax cuts, we make the fiscal setting exogenous during the first 10 year period and adjust the path for corporate and personal income taxes to take into account the government revenue effects from the tax plan.”

Costs aside, to get a sense of the economic impact from the two tax plans, BofA similarly models the two plans’ outcomes using the FRB/US macroeconomic model. The simulation results suggest under the House plan, the US would see a boost to aggregate demand as growth would be approximately 0.4pp higher relative to baseline in 2018 and 0.3pp higher in 2019. Better aggregate demand would reduce the unemployment rate by 0.3pp by 2019 and put upward pressure on inflation. These growth and price dynamics would lead the FOMC to raise rates an additional 1 to 2 hikes over the next two years. The economic impact from the Senate plan would be slightly more modest but in the same ballpark as the House plan. Under the Senate plan, the model predicts growth to be approximately 0.3pp higher in both 2018 and 2019 and similar dynamics for the unemployment rate and inflation as seen in the House plan, leading the FOMC to tighten quicker than the current baseline path.

There is also an “alternative” scenario where we a watered down version of the tax plan passes (i.e. modest tax cuts for middle-income households and a corporate tax cut near 25-28% that is deficit increasing by $600bn-$800bn on a static basis). Under the “alternative” scenario, we would see approximately half the economic impact that is seen under the House plan. Given that such a plan would likely only generate modest inflationary pressures, the Fed’s response likely would be relatively muted and it would likely stay on its baseline path.

end
As outlined to you yesterday the FBI informant by the name of Campbell will be testifying before Congresss and he has a boatload of evidence against Clinton, the Clinton foundation, Mueller, et al in the Uranium One scandal.
(courtesy iBankCoin.com)

Report: FBI Informant Has Video Of Russian Agents With Briefcases Of Bribe Money In Clinton-Uranium Scandal

Content originally published at iBankCoin.com

An undercover FBI informant in the Russian nuclear industry who was made to sign an “illegal NDA” by former AG Loretta Lynch, claims to have video evidence showing Russian agents with briefcases full of bribe money related to the controversial Uranium One deal – according to The Hill investigative journalist John Solomon and Circa‘s Sara Carter.

The informant, whose identity was revealed by Reuters as energy industry consultant William D. Campbell – and is very ill battling cancer –  is testifying before congress next week after the NDA which carried the threat of prison time was lifted.

As previously reported, Campbell was deeply embedded in the Russian nuclear industry where he gathered extensive evidence of a racketeering scheme involving bribes and kickbacks.

The Russians were compromising American contractors in the nuclear industry with kickbacks and extortion threats, all of which raised legitimate national security concerns. And none of that evidence got aired before the Obama administration made those decisions,” a person who worked on the case told The Hill, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution by U.S. or Russian officials. –The Hill

Campbell’s attorney, former Regan Justice Department official Victoria Toensing, previously told Fox Business host Lou Dobbs “He can tell what all the Russians were talking about during the time that all these bribery payments were made.

Sara Carter and John Solomon sat down with Fox News host Sean Hannity to discuss:

Sarah Carter: He’s very sick and he’s been battling cancer and going chemo. He is in a battle for not only his life, but in a battle against what he perceives as people within the US government that don’t want this story to come out.

But there’s so much information that he is willing to share with the public to set the record straight, and believe me we’re gonna get it out there. He is going to have his say. His voice will be heard.

Hannity: He knew about the bribery, kickbacks, extortion of Putin’s agents in the US?

Sara Carter: Yes, and he will be able to lay that all out for everyone, and he will do that for Congress. John and I have been working on this for months and months and months. He came to the [Obama] DOJ with this information. 

John Solomon: He is going to be an extraordinary fact witness because he gathered so much information. There are videotapes where the Russians are opening up briefcases full of cash. These are the people we then gave uranium to, that we then gave nuclear fuel contracts to. 

Hannity: This is happening before they sign off on Uranium One? They knew about bribery extortion kickbacks money laundering before? They knew this was Putin and they did it anyway!

John Solomon: Yes. The Russians really thought they had played America on this one. 

Watch: 

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Michael Snyder writes a terrific commentary on something that we must pay attention to:
the high amount of junk bonds that are coming due..this will break the system
(courtesy zerohedge)

Why America’s Retail Apocalypse Could Accelerate Even More In 2018

Is the retail apocalypse in the United States about to go to a whole new level?  That is a frightening thing to consider, because the truth is that things are already quite bad.  We have already shattered the all-time record for store closings in a single year and we still have the rest of November and December to go.  Unfortunately, it truly does appear that things will get even worse in 2018, because a tremendous amount of high-yield retail debt is coming due next year.  In fact, Bloomberg is reporting that the amount of high-yield retail debt that will mature next year is approximately 19 times larger than the amount that matured this year…

Just $100 million of high-yield retail borrowings were set to mature this year, but that will increase to $1.9 billion in 2018, according to Fitch Ratings Inc. And from 2019 to 2025, it will balloon to an annual average of almost $5 billion. The amount of retail debt considered risky is also rising. Over the past year, high-yield bonds outstanding gained 20 percent, to $35 billion, and the industry’s leveraged loans are up 15 percent, to $152 billion, according to Bloomberg data.

Even worse, this will hit as a record $1 trillion in high-yield debt for all industries comes due over the next five years, according to Moody’s.

Can you say “debt bomb”?

For those of you that are not familiar with these concepts, high-yield debt is considered to be the riskiest form of debt.  Retailers all over the nation went on a tremendous debt binge for years, and many of those loans never should have been made.  Now that debt is going to start to come due, and many of these retailers simply will not be able to pay.

So how does that concern the rest of us?

Well, just like with the subprime mortgage meltdown, the “spillover” could potentially be enormous.  Here is more from Bloomberg

The debt coming due, along with America’s over-stored suburbs and the continued gains of online shopping, has all the makings of a disaster. The spillover will likely flow far and wide across the U.S. economy. There will be displaced low-income workers, shrinking local tax bases and investor losses on stocks, bonds and real estate. If today is considered a retail apocalypse, then what’s coming next could truly be scary.

I have written extensively about Sears and other troubled retailers that definitely appear to be headed for zero.  But one major retailer that is flying below the radar a little bit that you should keep an eye on is Target.  For over a year, conservatives have been boycotting the retailer, and this boycott is really starting to take a toll

Target has been desperately grasping at ideas to recover lost business, including remodeling existing stores and opening smaller stores, lowering prices, hiring more holiday staff and introducing a new home line from Chip and Joanna Gaines. But Target stock remains relatively stagnant, opening at 61.50 today—certainly nowhere near the mid-80s of April 2016, when the AFA boycott began.

In the past, retailers could always count on the middle class to bail them out, but the middle class is steadily shrinking these days.  In fact, at this point one out of every five U.S. households has a net worth of zero or less.

And we must also keep in mind that we do not actually deserve the debt-fueled standard of living that we are currently enjoying.  We are consuming far more wealth than we are producing, and the only way we are able to do that is by going into unprecedented amounts of debt.  The following comes from Egon von Greyerz

Total US debt in 1913 was $39 billion. Today it is $70 trillion, up 1,800X. But that only tells part of the story. There were virtually no unfunded liabilities in 1913. Today they are $130 trillion. So adding the $70 trillion debt to the unfunded liabilities gives a total liability of $200 trillion.

In 1913 US debt to GDP was 150%. Today, including unfunded liabilities, the figure becomes almost 1,000%. This is the burden that ordinary Americans are responsible for, a burden that will break the US people and the US economy as well as the dollar.

The only possible way that the game can go on is to continue to grow our debt much faster than the overall economy is growing.

Of course that is completely unsustainable, and when this debt bubble finally bursts everything is going to collapse.

We don’t know exactly when the next great financial crisis is coming, but we do know that conditions are absolutely perfect for one to erupt.  According to John Hussman, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see stock prices fall more than 60 percent from current levels…

At the root of Hussman’s pessimistic market view are stock valuations that look historically stretched by a handful of measures. According to his preferred valuation metric — the ratio of non-financial market cap to corporate gross value-added (Market Cap/GVA) — stocks are more expensive than they were in 1929 and 2000, periods that immediately preceded major market selloffs.

“US equity market valuations at the most offensive levels in history,” he wrote in his November monthly note. “We expect that more extreme valuations will only be met by more severe losses.”

Those losses won’t just include the 63% plunge referenced above — it’ll also be accompanied by a longer 10 to 12 year period over which the S&P 500 will fall, says Hussman.

A financial system that is based on a pyramid of debt will never be sustainable.  As I discuss in my new book entitled “Living A Life That Really Matters”, the design of our current debt-based system is fundamentally flawed, and it needs to be rebuilt from the ground up.

The borrower is the servant of the lender, and our current system is designed to create as much debt as possible.  When it inevitably fails, we need to be ready to offer an alternative, because patching together our current system and trying to re-inflate the bubble is not a real solution.

Michael Snyder is a Republican candidate for Congress in Idaho’s First Congressional District, and you can learn how you can get involved in the campaign on his official website. His new book entitled “Living A Life That Really Matters” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com.

end

Let us close out the week with this offering from Greg hunter of USAWatchdog

(courtesy Greg Hunter/USAWatchdog)

Alabama Will Vote for Moore, Trump Asia Trip, Plan on Inflation

By Greg Hunter On November 17, 2017 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

The saga of Roy Moore continues with twists and turns and dirty tricks by the Deep State. It’s been revealed that a so-called robocall campaign to try and find dirt on Senate candidate Roy Moore happened after he won the GOP primary. Now, the only piece of evidence in multiple accusations that Roy Moore committed sexual misconduct has been called into question. Moore and his attorney are charging a yearbook inscription from the 1970’s, that proves contact with one of the alleged victims, is a forgery and a fraud. Moore denies any and all wrongdoing and is going to sue two women with the most damaging claims.

President Donald Trump is back from Asia and, by all accounts, it went very well. Trump got agreements of nearly $300 billion in new business for America, and Trump says, “The future has never been brighter.”

The recent purchase of a rare Da Vinci painting of Jesus Christ just went for $450 million at auction. Is this crazy, or is it a sign that the rich are trying to protect their money from inflation by compressing it into a rare work of art? Some say this is just a sign of the beginning of much higher inflation that is coming globally.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he looks at these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

Video Link

https://usawatchdog.com/alabama-will-vote-for-moore- trump-asia-trip-plan-on-inflation/

-END-

The way the gold/silver equity shares sold off this afternoon, generally that is the signal for our banker boys to orchestrate a aid on our previous metals on Monday. I receive the preliminary numbers late tonight or early tomorrow morning.  If they are extremely high for both metals that would be another indicator for a raid.

I WILL SEE YOU ON MONDAY NIGHT

HARVEY

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