Nov 30/Another raid by the bankers on gold and silver today hoping for capitulation/Gold down $9.15 and silver is down 15 cents/A massive 20,559 comex OI transfers over for 20,559 gold EFPs in London/Silver witnesses a transfer of 5700 oi contracts for EFPs/A massive 37 tonnes of gold standing in December/A huge 32 million oz of silver standing in December on First day notice/Chinese economic trade talks with the USA stalls./

GOLD: $1273.95  DOWN $9.15

Silver: $16.43 DOWN 13 cents

Closing access prices:

Gold $1275.30

silver: $16.43

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1292.28 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1284.75

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $7.53

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1290.66

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1284.10

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$6.56

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1282.15

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1281.90

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1280.20

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1280.00

For comex gold:

DECEMBER/

 NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR DECBER CONTRACT:  2309 NOTICE(S) FOR 230,900 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 2309 FOR 230,900 OZ (7.181 TONNES)

For silver:

DECEMBER

3994 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

19,970,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 3994 for 19,970,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: BID $9808/OFFER $9868, DOWN $5 (morning) 

BITCOIN : BID $9854 OFFER: $9914 // UP $39 (CLOSING)

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest SURPRISINGLY ROSE BY  A CONSIDERABLE 3254 contracts from 186,272 RISING TO 189,526 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S TRADING  WHICH SAW SILVER PLUMMET 32 CENTS AND NOW WELL BELOW THE HUGE $17.25 SILVER RESISTANCE.   WE HAD SURPRISINGLY NO COMEX LIQUIDATION.  HOWEVER WE WERE ALSO NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER LARGE NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE : 0 DECEMBER EFP’S WERE ISSUED ALONG WITH 5700 EFP’S FOR MARCH FOR A TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 5700 CONTRACTS.   I GUESS WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. YESTERDAY WITNESSED 820 EFP’S FOR SILVER ISSUED.

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED RISE IN OI COMEX DESPITE THE DROP IN SILVER PRICE OF 32 CENTS. HOWEVER  WE HAD ALL OF OUR COMEX LONGS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  FROM THE CME DATA 5700 EFP’S  WERE ISSUED TODAY  FOR A DELIVERABLE CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS. IN ESSENCE THE  DEMAND FOR SILVER PHYSICAL INTENSIFIES GREATLY. WE REALLY GAINED 8954 OI CONTRACTS i.e5700 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A INCREASE OF 3254 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.949 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 135% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT OCT MONTH/ THEY FILED: 3994 NOTICE(S) FOR 19,970,000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest COLLAPSED AGAIN IN SIMILAR  FASHION TO WHICH WE HAVE WITNESSED DURING THE PAST TWO YEARS AS WE APPROACH AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH LIKE THIS ONE, I.E. DECEMBER.  THE TOTAL OI FELL BY ANOTHER 14,574 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 489,236 WITH THE HUGE FALL  IN PRICE OF GOLD YESTERDAY ($12.30).  HOWEVER  THE TOTAL NUMBER OF GOLD EFP’S ISSUED TODAY  TOTALED ANOTHER 20,559 CONTRACTS OF WHICH THE MONTH OF DECEMBER SAW 600 CONTRACTS AND FEB SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 19,959 CONTRACTS. (EMERGENCY??)   The new OI for the gold complex rests at 490,015. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE WITNESS THE HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR DECEMBER. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK  TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD.  THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX  HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO ACCPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND ON TOP OF THAT IT IS TAKING A FURTHER 13 WEEKS TO OBTAIN PHYSICAL FROM THE POINT WHEN FORWARDS BECOME DUE. IN ESSENCE WE HAD A NET GAIN OF 5989 OI CONTRACTS: 14,574 OI CONTRACTS LOST AT THE  COMEX OI  BUT OF THAT TOTAL  20,559 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. AS I REPORTED YESTERDAY: “THE CME HAS BEEN VERY TARDY IN THEIR REPORTING OF EFP ISSUANCE.  MY BET IS THAT WITH TOMORROW’S READING WE WILL HAVE A SURPLUS OF 22,000++ OI NAVIGATING TO LONDON.”  I WAS CLOSE:  20,559 MOVED ACROSS. THESE GUYS ARE CROOKS. THEY ARE IMMEDIATELY REMOVING OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS BUT DELAYING RELEASE OF EFP’S

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 13,058 EFP’S ISSUED.

Result: A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN OI  WITH THE HUGE SIZED FALL IN PRICE IN GOLD YESTERDAY ($12.30). WE  HAD AN LARGE  NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 20,559. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE REACHED THE HUGE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES.  IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 20,559 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A NET GAIN OPEN INTEREST OF 5989 contracts:

20,359 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 14,574 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM   THE COMEX.

we had:  2309  notice(s) filed upon for 230,900 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

Today, no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/

Inventory rests tonight: 839.55 tonnes.

SLV

TODAY WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.130 MILLION OZ

end

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver SURPRISINGLY ROSE BY 3254 contracts from 186,272 UP  TO 189,526 (AND now A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICE (A FALL OF 32 CENTS ). HOWEVER, OUR BANKERS  USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER HUGE  5700  PRIVATE EFP’S FOR MARCH (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS).  EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  WE HAVE NOW REACHED  FIRST DAY NOTICE.  AS I STATED YESTERDAY: “THIS IS THE SCENE WHERE IN THE PAST WE DID SEE MASSIVE COMEX OI CONTRACTION ALTHOUGH IT WAS MORE PRONOUNCED IN GOLD THAN WITH SILVER.” IF YOU COMPARE GOLD TO SILVER ONE CAN SEE THE DIFFERENCE: GOLD HAS A MUCH GREATER TRANSFER IN EFP’S THAN SILVER.  TODAY WE HAD ZERO COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. IF WE ADD THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX (3528 CONTRACTS)   TO THE 5700 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S  WE OBTAIN A NET GAIN OF A MASSIVE  8954  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS, ON TOP OF THE HUGE AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN DECEMBER (SEE BELOW)

RESULT: A LARGE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 32 CENT FALL IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  BUT WE ALSO  HAD ANOTHER 5770 EFP’S ISSUED.. TRANSFERRING OUR COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON . TOGETHER WITH THE HUGE AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR DECEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER IS STRONG.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 20.67 points or .62% /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 446.48 pts or 1.51% / The Nikkei closed UP 127.76 POINTS OR 0.57%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.64%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.6150/Oil DOWN to 57.85 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.27 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN .    ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6150. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.6210 //ONSHORE YUAN WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE WEAKER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS STRONGER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS NOT  HAPPY TODAY.(MARKETS VERY WEAK)

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea

South Korea received good news that its Industrial Production instead of rising 3% this month plunged 5.9% year/year. Their stock market rallied big on the news..

( zerohedge)

ii)This is what scares me the most; an EMP attack:

( Michael Snyder)

iii)Pictures of that North Korean ICBM capable of striking the USA

( zero hedge)

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c  CHINA

Chinese and USA economic dialogue goes nowhere and there are no plans to revive talks.  Trump is still adamant at the huge trade imbalances between the two countries.  Nothing will happen with these stalled talks unless Trump initiates huge tariffs..then things will change.

( zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

It looks like Frankfurt will be the big winner once England leaves the EU. Twenty skyscrapers are now being built to meet with this new “BREXIT demand”

( zerohedge)

ii)Despite an improvement in the unemployment rate, the EU cannot get their inflation expectations up to 2%.  It rose from 1.5% to 1.6%

( zerohedge)

iii)This says it all:  the ECB will have a tough time raising rates as sovereigns cannot afford the higher rates as will create a systemic mess:

( Graham Summers/Phoenix Capital

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)As promised to you, trader Zarrab confirms that Erdogan approved the “secret Iran gold” trade.  This violated USA sanctions.  The Turkish lira tumbles

( zerohedge)

ii)Saudi Arabia/Yemen

Oh OH!/not good!!

Saudi Arabia intercepts a ballistic missile fired from Yemen onto its shores

(courtesy zero hedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

a deal looks questionable in oil as WTI slumps

( zerohedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)A terrific presentation from Chris Powell to the Mines and Money Conference in London.  He outlines beautifully the massive manipulation in the gold market by central banks and the central bank to the central banks:  the BIS

( Chris Powell/GATA)

ii)Chaos in the Bitcoin market:  Last night it flash crashed down to $8500 then rebounds back to $9800.  The biggest USA exchange Coinbase is off line.

(zerohedge)

iii)Your are going to find the following commentary pretty powerful as Stewart Dougherty describes the manipulation of gold by the elitists and how this allowed the entry of cryptocurrencies into our economy. This will eventually lead to the defeat of the “Deep State”.  We are going to provide it to you in two parts.

a must read..

( Stewart Dougherty)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)National Chicago manufacturing PMI  (soft data) drops from a 6 year high with new orders slowing down

( Chicago PMI/zerohedge)

ii)An extremely important commentary from James Rickards on 3 important dates for the Fed

a must read…
( James Rickards)

ii b)PCE up a tick but still well below its mandate:( zerohedge)

iii)Markets are not going to like this: Trump is set to replace Tillerson with Mike Pompeo( zerohedge)

iv)He probably is correct:  Bitcoin is the poster boy for an unhinged financial system

( David Stockman/ContraCorner)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A WHOPPING  14,574  CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level of 489,236 WITH THE  HUGE SIZED FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($12.30 LOSS WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING).   IN ACTUAL FACT WE DID NOT HAVE ANY  GOLD  LIQUIDATION.  WE  HAD ANOTHER LARGE COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED  A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. THE CME REPORTS THAT 600 EFPS WERE ISSUED FOR DECEMBER (THE NEED FOR IMMEDIATE GOLD) AND 19,959 EMERGENCY EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR FEBRUARY FOR A TOTAL OF 20,559 CONTRACTS. THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS.  THE CONSTANT BANKER RAIDS CONTINUE AS THEY TRY TO GET  OUR “MATHEMATICAL PAPER LONGS” IN GOLD TO LIQUIDATE THEIR POSITIONS AT THE COMEX. SO FAR IT HAS NOT SUCCEEDED (AS THEY MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS) AND THUS THE  CONTINUAL RAID TODAY AS THE CROOKS TRY AND EXTRICATE FIAT DOLLARS FROM OUR STUPID LONG OPTION HOLDERS IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER. THE CME HAS BEEN VERY TARDY IN THEIR REPORTING OF EFP’S CONTRACTS AFTER A COMEX OI MORPHS INTO AN EFP WHICH WAS THE REASON FOR MY 2ND LETTER TO THE CFTC.  AS I STATED YESTERDAY:”LET US SEE IF WE OBTAIN IN EXCESS OF 22,000 EFP’S ISSUED FOR TOMORROW”  AND “YOU CAN IMAGINE THE BOOK WORK THAT THESE CROOKS MUST UNDERGO TRYING TO KEEP EVERYTHING STRAIGHT.”  I WAS CLOSE:  20,559 MIGRATED OVER TO LONDON.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED TODAY: 5989 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 20,559 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS LONGS TO LONDON AS A FORWARD AND WE LOST  14,574 COMEX CONTRACTS.  NET GAIN: 5989 contracts. TOMORROW WE SHOULD SE MORE EFP’S DECLARED AS TRANSFERS. 

Result: a HUGE DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE HUGE SIZED LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($12.30.)   WE HAD NO REAL GOLD LIQUIDATION. TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5989 OI CONTRACTS…WITH A PROBABLE FURTHER ADDITION IN EFP TOMORROW.

.

We have now entered the  active contract month of DECEMBER. The open interest for the front month of December stands at a whopping 11,908 contracts.  And thus by definition, the amount of gold initially standing for delivery for December is 1,190,800 oz or 37.03 tonnes. Interestingly enough there is only 20 tonnes of registered or for sale gold at the comex.

January saw its open interest GAIN OF 171 contracts UP to 1919. FEBRUARY saw a gain of 5735 contacts up to 377,828.

We had 2,309 notice(s) filed upon today for 230900 oz

PRELIMINARY VOLUME TODAY ESTIMATED;  329,732

FINAL NUMBERS CONFIRMED FOR FRIDAY:  450,210

comex gold volumes are increasing dramatically

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI SURPRISINGLY ROSE  BY 3254 CONTRACTS  FROM 186,272 UP TO 189,526 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 17 CENT LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER WE DID HAVE ANOTHER STRONG 5700 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MARCH ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS (ZERO FOR DECEMBER) TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 5700.  IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE SILVER BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE JUST LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY.  USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST BEGUN IN EARNEST IN SILVER STARTING IN SEPTEMBER.  HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS.  WE HAD NO  LONG SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION AS DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER REMAINS STRONG ESPECIALLY AS WE WITNESS A HUGE AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR METAL IN DECEMBER. IT SEEMS THAT ALL OF OUR LOST SILVER COMEX OI CONTRACTS MIGRATED OVER TO THE PHYSICAL HUB OF OUR PRECIOUS METALS, LONDON. ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 8954 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS:  3254 CONTRACTS ADDED THE COMEX WITH THE ADDITION OF  5700 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

We are now in the big active delivery month of December and here the OI fell by 7126 contracts down to 6508.  And thus by definition, the initial amount of silver ounces standing for metal at the comex in December is as follows;

6508 contracts x 5000 oz per contract =  32,540,000 oz.  This is huge!!

The January contract month fell by 36 contracts down to 1671.  The March contract gained 9883 contracts up to 146,152.

We had 3994 notice(s) filed initially for 19,970,000 oz for the DECEMBER. 2017 contract

INITIAL standings for DECEMBER

 Nov 30/2017.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  
 nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz    nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
nil
oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
2309 notice(s)
230,900 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
9599 contracts
(959,900 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2309 notices
230,900 oz
7.181 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month     xxx oz
Today we HAD  0 kilobar trans

WE HAD nil DEALER DEPOSIT:
total dealer deposits: nil oz

We had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 customer deposit(s):

total customer deposits nil  oz

We had 0 customer withdrawal(s)

Total customer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 adjustment(s)

Out of HSBC: 259,525.345 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of HSBC.  It seems  that HSBC is being called upon to deliver upon our longs

For DECEMBER:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 2309 contract(s) of which 1039 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 74 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DECEMBER. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2309) x 100 oz or 230,900 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (11,908 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (2309 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,199,800 oz, the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DECEMBER

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DECEMBER contract month:

No of notices served (2309) x 100 oz or ounces + {(11,908)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2309) x 100 oz which equals 1,190,800 oz standing in this active delivery month of DECEMBER (37.03 tonnes). INTERESTINGLY THERE IS ONLY 20 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

LAST YEAR WE SAW CONSIDERABLE GOLD LEAVE THE COMEX THROUGH EFP’S. LET US SEE WHAT HAPPENS THROUGHOUT DECEMBER IF CONTRACTS MIGRATE OVER TO LONDON.

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ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR DECEMBER,  THE INITIAL  GOLD STANDING:  39.038 TONNES STANDING

BY THE END OF THE MONTH:  FINAL: 29.791 TONNES STOOD FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS THE REMAINDER HAD TRANSFERRED OVER TO LONDON FORWARDS.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Total dealer inventory 922,639.946 or 28.69 tonnes (dealer gold continues to disappear)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8,914,844.991 or 277.28 tonnes

I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process and are being used in the raiding of gold!
The gold comex is an absolute fraud. The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction. This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.

IN THE LAST 14 MONTHS 77 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DECEMBER DELIVERY MONTH

DECEMBER INITIAL standings

 Nov 30/ 2017
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 609,176.378 oz
 CNT
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
 581,723.413
oz
Brinks
I-D
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
 1,109,440.708 oz
 Brinks
Malca
No of oz served today (contracts)
3994 CONTRACT(S)
(19,970,000OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2,514 contract
(12,570,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3994 contracts

(19,970,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month

today, we had 2 deposit(s) into the dealer account:

i) Into Brinks:  556,757.49 oz

ii) Into International Delaware:  24,975.923

total dealer deposit: n581,723.413 oz

we had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 customer withdrawal(s):

i) Out of CNT:  609,176.378 oz

TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWAL  609,176.378 oz

We had 2 Customer deposit(s):

i) Into Brinks  500,264.33 oz

ii) Into Malca:  609,176.378

***deposits into JPMorgan have stopped again
In the month of March and February, JPMorgan stopped (received) almost all of the comex silver contracts.
why is JPMorgan bringing in so much silver??? why is this not criminal in that they are also the massive short in silver

total customer deposits: 1109,440.708 oz

we had 3 adjustment(s)

i) From Brinks: 623,912.910 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of Brinks

ii) Out of CNT: 1,228,903.808 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account

iii) out of customer: Delaware: 1129.80 oz removed/accounting error.

The total number of notices filed today for the DECEMBER. contract month is represented by 3994 contract(s) FOR 19,970,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DECEMBER., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3994 x 5,000 oz = 19,970,0000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (6508) and the number of notices served upon today (3994 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DECEMBER contract month: 3994 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DECEMBER(6508) -number of notices served upon today (3994)x 5000 oz equals 32,540,000 oz of silver standing for the DECEMBER contract month. This is EXCELLENT for this active delivery month of November.

IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BANKERS WERE READY FOR SILVER DELIVERIES AS REGISTERED OI FOR SILVER IS 53 MILLION OZ. (REGISTERED = FOR SALE SALE BY BANKERS)

WE MUST NOW WAIT TO SEE IF WE ARE GOING TO HAVE CONTINUAL QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER.  THIS STARTED IN EARNEST ON MAY 1/2017 AND CONTINUED IN FULL BLAST EVEN TO TODAY. THIS IS ANOTHER INDICATOR OF PHYSICAL METAL SHORTAGE TOGETHER WITH THE HIGH TRANSFER OF EFP’S TO LONDON AS WELL AS THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING FOR DECEMBER:  DEMAND FOR SILVER INTENSIFIES.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE DECEMBER 2016 CONTRACT WE HAD 15.282 MILLION OZ STAND.

THE FINAL STANDING: 19.900 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING INTENSIFIED.

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 86,725
CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 140,570 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 140,570 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 703 MILLION OZ OR 100% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION.  THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

Total dealer silver: 55.852 million
Total number of dealer and customer silver: 235.904 million oz

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 2.3 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 2.3% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 62.9%
Percentage of fund in silver:36.8%
cash .+.3%( Nov 30/2017)

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -0.42% (Nov 30 /2017)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.54% to NAV (Nov 30/2017 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -0.42%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.54%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

Nov 30/no change in gold inventory at the GLD. Inventory rests at 839.55 tonnes

Nov 29/a withdrawal of 2.66 tonnes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 839.55 tonnes

NOV 28/ no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 842.21 tonnes

Nov 27 Strange!! we gold up by $6.40 today, we had a good sized withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes from the GLD. Here is something that is also strange: we have had exactly 1.18 tonnes of gold withdrawn from the comex on 5 separate occasions in the past 30 days..explanation?

Nov 24/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

Nov 22/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 21/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

NOV 20/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 17/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 16./NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.39 TONNES

Nov 15./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

NOV 14/a small deposit of .300 tonnes into the GLD inventory/Inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 13/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.09 TONNES

Nov 10/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

Nov 9/no changes in inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

NOV 8/ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD DESPITE GOLD’S RISE TODAY. INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.09

Nov 7/a huge withdrawal of 1.48 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 844.27 tonnes

NOV 6/ a tiny withdrawal of .29 tonnes to pay for fees etc/inventory rests at 845.75 tonnes

Nov 3/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 846.04 tonnes

NOV 2/STRANGE!!! WE HAD ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.55 TONNES FROM THE GLD DESPITE GOLD’S RISE OF $6.60 YESTERDAY AND $1.55 TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.04 TONNES

Nov 1/a withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 849.59 tonnes

OCT 31/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 850.77 tonnes

Oct 30/STRANGE WITH GOLD UP THESE PAST TWO TRADING DAYS, THE GLD HAS A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.77 TONES

Oct 27/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.95 TONNES

Oct 26./A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.95 TONNES

Oct 25/NO CHANGE (SO FAR) IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.13 TONNES

Oct 24./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 853.13 tonnes

OCT 23./NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 853.13 TONNES

OCT 20/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 853.13 TONNES

oCT 19/NO CHANGE/853.13 TONNES

Oct 18 /no change in gold inventory at the GLD/ inventory rests at 853.13 tonnes

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Nov 30/2017/ Inventory rests tonight at 839.55 tonnes

*IN LAST 283 TRADING DAYS: 101.40 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 218 TRADING DAYS: A NET 55.88 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.
*FROM FEB 1/2017: A NET 24.77 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

Nov 30/no changes in silver inventory despite the huge drop in price/inventory rests at 317.130 million oz

Nov 29/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 317.130 million oz/strange!! at drop of 32 cents and no change in inventory?

Nov 28/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 317.130 million oz.

Nov 27/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY DESPITE A ZERO GAIN IN PRICE /QUITE OPPOSITE TO GOLD WHICH SAW 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN DESPITE A RISE IN PRICE OF $6.40

Nov 24/A WITHDRAWAL OF 944,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.130 MILLION OZ

Nov 22/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 million oz.

Nov 21/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

NOV 20/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz

Nov 17/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

Nov 16./NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ/

Nov 15./no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 tones

NOV 14/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 tonnes

Nov 13/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ

Nov 10/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

Nov 9/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz.

NOV 8/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ

Nov 7/a huge withdrawal of 944,000 oz from the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

NOV 6/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 319.018 million oz/

Nov 3/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 319.018 MILLION OZ.

NOV 2/A TINY LOSS OF 137,000 OZ BUT THAT WAS TO PAY FOR FEES LIKE INSURANCE AND STORAGE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.018 MILLION OZ/

Nov 1/STRANGE! WITH SILVER’S HUGE 48 CENT GAIN WE HAD NO GAIN IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.155 MILLION OZ/

Oct 31/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 319.155 million oz

Oct 30/STRANGE!WITH SILVER UP THESE PAST TWO TRADING DAYS, WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.133 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.155 MILLION OZ/

Oct 27/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.288 MILLION OZ

Oct 26/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.288 MILLION OZ/

Oct 25/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.288 MILLION OZ

Oct 24/no change in inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 320.288 million oz/

oCT 23./STRANGE!!WITH SILVER RISING TODAY WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.039 MILLION OZ/inventory rests at 320.288 million oz/

OCT 20NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.327 MILLION OZ

oCT 19/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 321.327 MILLION OZ

Oct 18 no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rest at 322.271 million oz

Nov 30/2017:

Inventory 317.130 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

+ 1.60%
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.84%
30 day trend

end

Major gold/silver trading/commentaries for THURSDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Goldcore:

Low Cost Gold In The Age Of QE, AI, Trump and War

‘Fear and Loathing In the Age of QE … AI’ is a presentation given at Mining Investment London earlier this week.

Stephen Flood, CEO of GoldCore presentation (28 minutes) was well received at the conference which is a strategic mining and investment conference for leaders in the mining and investment sectors, bringing together attendees from 20 countries.

Key topics in the video:

– A bullion dealers view on ‘What will drive the markets in 2018?’
– QE, inflation, Fed rates, debt bomb, China, populism, EU cohesion, Brexit, digital disruption, cashless society, demographics, Trump (war), Artificial intelligence (AI)
– Solve global debt crisis with humongous amount of debt!?
– Inflation – U.S. health insurance has increased 13% per annum since
– How Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the “big one,” likely be massively disruptive
– Trump: ‘No respect, no capacity, no strategy’
– Brexit and EU – ‘Poor outlook’ for Europe and euro doomed?
– “We are getting older and getting fatter” …  “less useful & less fair”
– “We live in uncertain times … there is no map”
– Gold’s excellent c.10% per annum performance over long term (see table)
– Low cost gold = Low “utility” gold
– Avoid “single point of failure”

‘Fear and Loathing In the Age of QE … AI’ can be watched on Youtube here

Related Videos
GoldNomics – Cash or Gold Bullion?
Why Silver Bullion Is Set To Soar – GoldCore Interview
Gold Bullion Stored In Singapore Is Safest – Marc Faber
Russia Seen More Likely to Sell Dollar Rather Than Gold
Talking Gold with CNN’s Richard Quest

News and Commentary

Gold holds near one-week low as dollar firms (Reuters.com)

Tech Stock Slide Spreads to Asia; Korean Won Drops (Bloomberg.com)

U.S. Stocks Dragged Down by Tech Rout; Bonds Fall (Bloomberg.com)

Goldman Says the Bitcoin Haters Just Don’t Get It (Bloomberg.com)

Fidelity restores online account access after resolving technical issue (CNBC.com)


Source: Bloomberg

Goldman Warns That Market Valuations Are at Their Highest Since 1900 (Bloomberg.com)

Bitcoin Tops $11,000 – Bundesbank Sees No Bubble, Stiglitz Says “Should Be Outlawed” (ZeroHedge.com)

Own Bitcoin – But Invest No More Than You Can Afford To Lose (StansBerryChurcHouse.com)

What to do if you’ve missed out on the bitcoin super-bubble (MoneyWeek.com)

Gold Slammed On Massive Volume To Key Technical Support On GDP Beat (ZeroHedge.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

30 Nov: USD 1,282.15, GBP 952.64 & EUR 1,084.06 per ounce
29 Nov: USD 1,294.85, GBP 965.70 & EUR 1,092.46 per ounce
28 Nov: USD 1,293.90, GBP 972.75 & EUR 1,088.95 per ounce
27 Nov: USD 1,294.70, GBP 969.73 & EUR 1,084.83 per ounce
24 Nov: USD 1,289.15, GBP 967.89 & EUR 1,086.37 per ounce
23 Nov: USD 1,290.15, GBP 969.93 & EUR 1,089.40 per ounce
22 Nov: USD 1,283.95, GBP 969.25 & EUR 1,092.51 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

30 Nov: USD 16.57, GBP 12.32 & EUR 14.00 per ounce
29 Nov: USD 16.90, GBP 12.60 & EUR 14.26 per ounce
28 Nov: USD 17.07, GBP 12.84 & EUR 14.36 per ounce
27 Nov: USD 17.10, GBP 12.81 & EUR 14.32 per ounce
24 Nov: USD 17.05, GBP 12.80 & EUR 14.38 per ounce
23 Nov: USD 17.10, GBP 12.84 & EUR 14.43 per ounce
22 Nov: USD 16.97, GBP 12.81 & EUR 14.44 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Own Gold Bullion To “Support National Security” – Russian Central Bank
– Bitcoin $10,000 – Huge Volatility of Cryptocurrencies and Risky Fiat Making Gold Attractive
– Financial Advice from Dr Wayne Dyer
– Buy Gold As Fed Shows Uncertainty And Concern Over Financial ‘Imbalances’
– Brexit Budget – Grim Outlook As UK Economy Downgraded
– Geopolitical Risk Highest “In Four Decades” – Gold Demand in Germany and Globally to Remain Robust
– Gold Versus Bitcoin: The Pro-Gold Argument Takes Shape
– Money and Markets Infographic Shows Silver Most Undervalued Asset
– Is New Fed Chief A “Swamp Critter Extraordinaire”?
– Deepening Crisis In Hyper-inflationary Venezuela and Zimbabwe
– UK Debt Crisis Is Here – Consumer Spending, Employment and Sterling Fall While Inflation Takes Off
– Protect Your Savings With Gold: ECB Propose End To Deposit Protection
– Internet Shutdowns Show Physical Gold Is Ultimate Protection

end

Chaos in the Bitcoin market:  Last night it flash crashed down to $8500 then rebounds back to $9800.  The biggest USA exchange Coinbase is off line.

Bitcoin Flash-Crashes To $8,500, Then Rebounds As Biggest US Exchange Breaks

Chaos: Bitcoin bounced back $1500 from the lows, rising as high as $10,400 from nearly $2000 lower just an hour earlier, before trading in a range around $10,000.

*  *  *

Update: The crash is continuing with Bitcoin now collapsing below $9000…

Ethereum and Litecoin are also under pressure.

Numerous exchanges and trading platforms are suffering outages.

*  *  *

Having soared in the last 24-48 hours to as high as $11,395 this moring, Bitcoin has just tumbled back below $10,000…

While a notable pump and dump, this drop is a mere 13% (following an 8% drop overnight after initially breaking $10,000).

There is some chatter than Bitcoin flash-crashed to as low as $9130 on Coinbase…

Remember on November 8th to 10th, Bitcoin crashed 30% amid rumors of its death.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

And as we noted previously, Bitcoin crashes at least once every quarter…

Amid a record day for traffic, Coinbase website is down once again…

end


Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN AT 6.6150/shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN AT 20.67 POINTS .62% / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 446.48 POINTS OR 1.51%
2. Nikkei closed UP 127.76 POINTS OR 0.57% /USA: YEN RISES TO 112.33

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN   /USA dollar index RISES TO 93.39/Euro FALLS TO 1.1839

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO . +.039/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.33/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.85  and Brent: 63.27

3f Gold DOWN/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.376%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.771% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.474%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 5.46???

3k Gold at $1281.30 silver at:16.51: 6 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 19/100 in roubles/dollar) 58.48

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT A SMALL SIZED DEVALUATION SOUTHBOUND

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.33 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9871 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1682 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.371%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.382% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.823% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Dow Hits Record 24,000, Europe Jumps As Euphoria Returns After Tech Rout

 

Despite a Wednesday dive in high-flying U.S. tech stocks on worries their boom may have peaked following a MS downgrade, which pressured Asian stocks leading to a slide in Hong Kong and South Korean share, on Thursday morning the dip buyers have emerged and both European stocks and US equity futures are once again solidly in the green as yesterday’s tech selloff is quickly forgotten. Confirming that algos have moved on, US stock-index futures climbed briskly (ES +0.3%), and Dow futures were above 24,000 with Europe green across the board as signs of progress on the tax reform plan led some investors to shift to positions that are seen benefiting from lower corporate tax.

Following a lackluster Wednesday session, and some mixed results in Asia, Europe’s Stoxx 600 has advancds to session’s high, up 0.6%, as defensive sectors including telecommunications, utilities and real estate outperform more cyclical sectors like construction, financial services and technology, with the FTSE 100 once again lagging (-0.3%) as the firmer GBP continues to hamper the index. Despite opening relatively flat, European bourses have drifted higher amid the declines seen in EUR with little else in the way of fresh fundamental catalysts to guide price action. All sectors trade in positive territory with the exception of energy names in the wake of yesterday’s sell-off in oil prices.

Germany’s Dax and France’s CAC 40 both inched up for a third day, though London’s FTSE was back in the red as hopes of a breakthrough in Brexit negotiations pushed the pound higher again.

Earlier, Hong Kong and South Korean-listed shares tumbled, while Japanese stocks gained. Asia stock markets were mostly negative as the tech-sell off on Wall St. dampened sentiment in the region and overshadowed better than expected Chinese PMI data. ASX 200 (-0.7%) was pressured by its largest weighted Financial sector after the announcement of a royal commission inquiry into the industry, while Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) recovered from opening losses as JPY weakness provided support. Elsewhere, KOSPI (-1.5%) weakened as the BoK delivered a widely anticipated 25bps rate hike and Chinese markets were also subdued with the Hang Seng (-1.5%) reeling on tech weakness, although losses in the Shanghai Comp. (-0.6%) were somewhat stemmed by encouraging Chinese Official PMI data.

In global FX and macro, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was higher a fourth day, its longest winning run since August, before key U.S. data releases including personal income, spending, deflator, initial claims, and Chicago PMI; the pound held on to Asia session gains as Brexit talks seemed on track to soon enter phase 2, the hardest part of the negotiations. As noted earlier, the euro reversed gains after inflation in the currency bloc missed estimates, while the 10-year bund yield fell from a two-week high; equities were mixed amid profit taking in EMFX and month-end flows in G-10 currencies. Some other key FX observations, from Bloomberg:

  • The pound was the only G-10 currency to strengthen against the dollar on Thursday after news that Ireland and the U.K. were close to a border deal
  • EUR/USD set a fresh session low after annual euro-zone flash CPI rose 1.5% in November versus an estimated 1.6% rise
  • Kiwi dropped after business confidence fell to the lowest level since 2009
  • The yen fell to a one-week low on the back of a rally in Japanese stocks and as better-than- expected U.S. economic data sapped haven demand
  • Norway’s krone slid to a nine-year low against the euro, with low liquidity exaggerating the move, after retail sales unexpectedly contracted 0.2% m/m in October versus an estimated 0.7% rise

Weighing on tech were concerns, sparked by a Morgan Stanley report
earlier this week, that the “super-cycle” in memory chip demand looks
likely to peak soon. Yesterday, shares of Amazon.com, Apple, Alphabet
and Facebook fell between 2 percent and 4 percent. Among the year’s
other high fliers, Netflix slid 5.5 percent while Asia’s bellwether
Samsung slumped 4.3 percent to two-month lows, also on some Morgan
Stanley skepticism.

“I‘m not sure one would say it’s a bubble (in tech stocks),” said Andrew Milligan, head of investment strategy at Standard Life. “By and large the companies are generating either good profits or the potential for good profit growth”. But “Tech is a sector unto itself… it’s utterly a view about barriers to entry.”

Still, the Nasdaq index remains up 26.8% so far this year, roughly 7% points above gains in the MSCI world index. “It is true that if you look at the world’s semiconductor sales on chart, their year-on-year growth appears to be peaking out,” said Hiroshi Watanabe, an economist at Sony Financial Holdings. “But if you look at what’s driving demand, it’s not just smart phones and actually a lot of things.”

In the US, Senate Republicans voted 52-48 to begin debate on their sweeping tax-overhaul bill, touching off a process that could produce an up-or-down vote before the end of this week. Outgoing Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Wednesday the central bank would welcome and support a faster expansion of the economy stemming from changes in the tax code, provided it was the right kind of growth. Other notable US events overnight:

  • White House adviser Kushner said to have met with Special Counsel Mueller’s team for discussions regarding former National Security Adviser Flynn.
  • Marvin Goodfriend was nominated for the Fed Board of Governors position.

Other changes are afoot: JPM Asset Management global head of rates David Tan predicted on Thursday that there will be some 1,000 rate hikes globally over the next decade. “The current period of economic expansion has therefore been extraordinarily long, almost 10 years and counting, but we know that the days of super low global central bank rates are in the process of coming to an end,” he said.

Meanwhile, interest rates in Germany rose to their highest in just over two weeks, while 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield climbed too, reaching 2.389% to near this month’s high of 2.414%.

There was no immediate market response after U.S. President Donald Trump nominated Carnegie Mellon University professor Marvin Goodfriend, viewed as a policy hawk, to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Oil meanwhile moved cautiously ahead of an OPEC meeting in Vienna later in the day, with members set to debate an extension of the group’s supply-cut agreement. While the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and key non-member Russia look set to prolong oil supply cuts until the end of 2018, they have signaled that they may review the deal when they meet again in June if the market overheats.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,633
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 389.17
  • MSCI Asia Pac down 1.1% to 170.05
  • MSCI Asia Pac ex Japan down 1.6% to 553.31
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 22,724.96
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,792.08
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.5% to 29,177.35
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,317.19
  • Sensex down 1.1% to 33,245.95
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 5,969.89
  • Kospi down 1.5% to 2,476.37
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to 0.396%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1835
  • Brent Futures up 1.5% to $64.08/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to 1.527%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 1.48%
  • Brent Futures up 1.5% to $64.08/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,281.27
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 93.36

Top Overnight News

  • U.S. Senate begins a marathon debate on the Republican tax bill after an intensive bargaining phase. Lawmakers reached a deal on pass-through business and were still discussing adding a trigger to include up to $350b in automatic hikes if revenues were not met.
  • The pound advanced after news the U.K. and the EU are working against the clock to reach a compromise on the Irish border that will allow a breakthrough in Brexit talks at a key meeting next week
  • German unemployment declined for a fifth month as Europe’s largest economy continues to boom. Business confidence is at the highest level since the country’s reunification with the hiring spree driven by companies seeking to expand their ranks to keep up with a growing backlog of work
  • Marvin Goodfriend, a widely respected monetary economist and sometime critic of the Federal Reserve under Chair Yellen, was nominated by President Trump to be a governor at the U.S. central bank, the White House announced on Wednesday
  • The International Monetary Fund is projecting the volume of trade in goods and services will have climbed 4.2 percent over the year, up from 2.4 percent in 2016. That would be the first time trade has outpaced output growth since 2014 and goes against the view earlier this year that 2017 would be the year of trade wars
  • The U.S. is rejecting China’s claim of market-economy status, saying the country doesn’t deserve to be treated as such in anti-dumping investigations because the state continues to play a pervasive role in the economy. The stance will be made clear in a document that will be published Thursday.
  • The U.K. and the European Union are moving to a compromise on the Irish border which will allow Brexit talks to move on to trade next week. All parties want to avoid a hard border, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May told reporters.

Asia stock markets were mixed as the tech-sell off on Wall St. dampened sentiment in the region and overshadowed better than expected Chinese PMI data. ASX 200 (-0.7%) was pressured by its largest weighted Financial sector after the announcement of a royal commission inquiry into the industry, while Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) recovered from opening losses as JPY weakness provided support. Elsewhere, KOSPI (-1.5%) weakened as the BoK delivered a widely anticipated 25bps rate hike and Chinese markets were also subdued with the Hang Seng (-1.5%) reeling on tech weakness, although losses in the Shanghai Comp. (-0.6%) were somewhat stemmed by encouraging Chinese Official PMI data. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower amid spill-over selling from their US counterparts and as a mixed 2yr auction failed to inspire demand. Chinese Official Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 51.8 vs. Exp. 51.4 (Prev. 51.6). Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 54.8 (Prev. 54.3) PBoC injected CNY 150bln via 7-day reverse repos, CNY 120bln via 14-day reverse repos and CNY 10bln via 63-day reverse repos to total a net neutral operation for a 4th consecutive day once maturing repos are accounted for. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6034 (Prev. 6.6011) BoK 7-Day Repo Rate (Nov) 1.50% vs. Exp. 1.50% (Prev. 1.25%). BoK Governor Lee said the rate decision was not unanimous as board member Cho dissented, while he added that uncertainties for the economy are higher than ever and that additional adjustment depends on growth and inflation.

Top Asian News

  • BOJ Cuts Buying Range for Debt Due Up to 1 Year in December Plan
  • BOJ Reflationist Harada Sees No Problem in Continuing Stimulus
  • China Bond Selloff Abates as 10-Year Yield Falls Most Since June
  • China Factory Gauge Unexpectedly Rises as Global Demand Firms Up
  • Hong Kong Regulator Says Agreement Reached on Investor ID Plan
  • BOJ Cuts Buying Range for Debt Due in Up to One Year in December

European equities trade higher across the board (Eurostoxx 50 +0.6%) with the FTSE 100 once again lagging (-0.3%) as the firmer GBP continues to hamper the index. Despite opening relatively flat, European bourses have drifted higher amid the declines seen in EUR with little else in the way of fresh fundamental catalysts to guide price action. All sectors trade in positive territory with the exception of energy names in the wake of yesterday’s sell-off in oil prices. A rather timely rebound in the 10 year German benchmark just ahead of the Eurozone inflation data, as the slightly softer than forecast headline measure inspired more upside to a fresh 162.75 high for the Eurex session (+27 ticks vs -24 ticks at the other extreme). Relatively dovish, albeit typical comments from ECB’s Praet may also have impacted and countering speculation about a leak or pre-release whisper, USTs squeezed higher around the same time. Whatever the catalyst or inspiration,  the price recovery to intraday peak represents a 50% retrace of Wednesday’s move, to the precise tick. Short term longs will now be eyeing 162.96 ahead of 163.10.

Top European News

  • Hong Kong Stocks Pare Monthly Gain as Technology Selloff Spreads
  • BOE’s Carney Hints at Scrapping Banker Bonus Cap After Brexit
  • Turkey Cenbank May Raise LLW Rate Without MPC Meeting: Ertem
  • IPT: Bunzl Finance Expected GBP300m 7.5Y UKT +135 Area
  • IPT: TSB Bank GBP Bmark 5Y Covered 3mL +30 Area

In FX markets, GBP is still riding high on expectations that the UK and EU are getting closer to striking an agreement on the key issues that need to be settled before a Brexit transition and trade talks can begin. JPY softer again on broadly upbeat risk sentiment (amidst above forecast Chinese PMIs, healthy Fed Beige Book and commentary), with USD/JPY up near 112.50 and the next chart resistance level at 112.70. EUR is holding above key tech support vs the USD at 1.1813 again, but struggling to maintain bullish momentum given the ongoing Greenback recovery. Expiry interest close by at 1.1840-45 (2.8 bln). In terms of Eurozone inflation, headline Y/Y printed at 1.5% for Nov vs. Exp. 1.6% with ex-food and energy firmer at 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.0%. Eurozone Inflation, Flash YY (Nov) 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. 1.4%); Eurozone Inflation ex-food, energy, tobacco (Nov P) Y/Y 0.9% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 0.9%); Eurozone Inflation Ex Food & Enr Flash (Nov) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.1%).

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures initially traded with little in the way of the firm direction after yesterday’s modest recovery from the initial sell-off, however, heading into US trade have been met with a bid. In terms of the latest OPEC rhetoric, energy ministers all appear to be on the same page with their desire for a 9-month extension to the existing deal (subject to a review in June). The Kuwaiti oil minister also added that production caps have been confirmed for Libya and Nigeria at around 1mln bpd and 1.8mln bpd respectively. In metals markets, spot gold has drifted lower throughout the session, briefly breaking below USD 1280/oz to the downside where some contacts had reported stops. Elsewhere, Copper was subdued overnight alongside the broad risk averse tone triggered by the US tech sell-off.

Looking at the day ahead, in the US the big focus will be on October personal income, spending and PCE data all due out at 8.30am ET. Also due is the November Chicago PMI and the latest weekly initial jobless claims data. The big focus away from the data will be a possible Senate vote on tax reform while central bank speakers today include the ECB’s Mersch and Praet, Fed’s Kaplan and BoE’s Sharp. The OPEC meeting in Vienna is also worth keeping a close eye on given that the meeting should include a discussion around extending production cuts.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 240,000, prior 239,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.89m, prior 1.9m
  • 8:30am: Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%; Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior 1.0%
    • PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%;  PCE Deflator YoY, est. 1.5%, prior 1.6%
    • PCE Core MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%; PCE Core YoY, est. 1.4%, prior 1.3%
  • 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Manager, est. 63, prior 66.2
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 51.7
  • 12:30pm: Fed’s Quarles Speaks on Payments Systems in Cleveland
  • 1pm: Fed’s Kaplan Speaks in Dallas

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It might be the last day of November but it still feels like we have some way to go before markets finally ease their feet off the pedals for the holiday season. We’re at the business end of the week now and one event which is waiting in the wings is the Senate vote on tax reform. It’s unclear if we’ll get a vote today or even this week with the latest update being that the Senate approved a motion to proceed on party lines yesterday, clearing a path for a vote on the bill. The vote to approve followed more debate yesterday with GOP senators negotiating compromises with their leaders. One of those was a more generous tax break for pass-through business. Politico reported that there are still a number of issues to resolve so keep an eye on how things progress today.

Away from politics it’s also worth watching some of the data due out today and especially the various inflation readings. This morning we’ll receive the November CPI report for the Euro area where the consensus expect a small pickup in the core to +1.0% yoy from +0.9%. Across the pond this afternoon we’ll then get the October personal income and spending data in the US which will also provide the latest reading for the Fed’s preferred inflation metric – the core PCE deflator. Our US economists and the market expect a +0.2% mom reading which if it holds would push the annual figure up one-tenth to +1.4% yoy. We talked extensively about inflation in our outlook and how the risks are to upside in the second half of next year especially, so this data is becoming more and more significant in our view as we look ahead to 2018.

Back to the present now where the biggest action in markets over the last 24 hours has been that in the tech sector. The Nasdaq closed -1.27% last night, although did pare heavier losses intraday, for its biggest one day decline since August. An index tracking FANG stocks fell -3.72% with an impressive $62bn wiped from the four stocks’ combined market value. That’s pretty much the equivalent of the GDP of Uzbekistan. In contrast, the S&P 500 (-0.04%) finished pretty much flat while the Dow closed +0.44%. In Europe the Stoxx 600 also closed +0.24%. So it was very much a tech only story with much of the commentary pointing towards sector rotation as the reason for the selloff ahead of US tax reform which is seen as doing little to benefit the sector given the already low effective tax rates. In fairness, the Nasdaq move looks like an afterthought compared to the 21.21% high-to-low range for Bitcoin yesterday. After nearly touching $11,500 intraday, in the space of five and a half hours the cryptocurrency tumbled all the way to $9,000, before then rallying back above $10,000 by the close to end the day more or less unchanged. For some context, while the  intraday range in percentage terms was ‘only’ the fifth biggest this year, the range in US $ terms ($2,424) is actually the same as where the cryptocurrency traded back in July. Mind boggling.

Elsewhere, bond markets didn’t offer much in the way of protection yesterday with yields sharply higher across the globe. 10y Treasuries finished +6.1bps higher last night with a combination of a Gilt led selloff following the Brexit  developments late on Tuesday (more on that below), tax reform talk and Yellen’s testimony all seemingly playing a part.

This morning in Asia it’s more of the same with weakness across tech names generally weighing on sentiment. The Hang Seng (-1.28%) has been the biggest mover with tech names down -2.47%, while the Kospi (-0.70%), ASX (-0.57%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.25%) are also in the red. The Nikkei is back to flat following a similarly weak start while US equity index futures are mixed. It’s worth noting that there doesn’t appear to be any follow on to President Trump’s tweet yesterday when he warned of “additional major sanctions” for North Korea following a phone call with President Xi Jingping of China.

Speaking of China, this morning China’s manufacturing PMI for November was reported as rising slightly to 51.8 from 51.6 the month prior. Expectations had been for a modest decline. The non-manufacturing PMI was also reported as rising, to 54.8 from 54.3. The other significant overnight news is that at the Fed, with Bloomberg reporting that monetary economist Marvin Goodfriend has been nominated by President Trump to be a governor at the Fed following an announcement by the White House. Goodfriend has previously questioned the use of QE post 2008 and was instead said to favour negative interest rates, despite acknowledging that it could require abolishing paper currency.

Back to Yellen, as was pretty much expected the Fed Chair played a relatively straight bat in what was likely her last testimony to Congress in her current role. As a broad conclusion, her tone seemed to somewhat reiterate a willingness at the Fed to continue with tightening but clearly dependent and limited on the data. A “gradual” need for rate increases was noted as being appropriate to sustain a healthy labour market and stabilize inflation. Recent inflation readings were highlighted as transitory which was also no change although she did note that the Fed has seen modest upward pressure on wages. She also made mention that the lesson from modest wages is that the labour market and economy are not overheated which was a similar comment to one made by the  incoming Chair Jerome Powell the day before. On growth Yellen also said that “economic growth appears to have stepped up from its subdued pace early in the year” and is now “increasingly broad-based across sectors as well as much of the global economy”. One topic which Yellen chose to refrain from addressing however was tax reform.

The Fed Chair’s comments around growth also came as the second reading for Q3 GDP was revised up a tenth more than expected to +3.3% qoq annualized, compared to the initial +3.0% estimate in the flash reading. Meanwhile the details showed that while headline PCE prices were revised down a tenth (+2.1% vs. +2.2%) the core PCE was however revised up a tenth to +1.4% qoq (compared to expectations for no change). It’s worth noting that corporate profits also rose +4.3% qoq and in year over year terms have now risen for four consecutive quarters following five quarters of consecutive declines ending in Q3 2016.

Yellen’s colleague at the Fed, the NY Fed President William Dudley, was also busy speaking yesterday. In comments at a moderated forum in New Jersey, Dudley played down any concern about the relative strength in markets currently although did make a special mention of being sceptical about Bitcoin. On the economy Dudley said that he thinks that the expansion has “got lots of room to go”. Meanwhile later on in the evening San Francisco Fed President John Williams said that four rate hikes in 2018 is his base case, roughly two more than that currently implied by market pricing.

Closer to home, as noted earlier UK assets spent much of yesterday absorbing the latest Brexit developments. Tuesday’s headlines regarding the agreement between the UK and EU on the divorce bill was confirmed by most major UK press outlets yesterday. It remains to be seen how PM May will deal with some likely fallout from her cabinet and a resolution on citizens’ rights and Northern  Ireland also remains outstanding, but it is still being taken as a key breakthrough of sorts.

Sterling rallied +0.52% and +0.47% respectively versus the Greenback and Euro yesterday, weighing on the FTSE 100 (-0.90%), while 2y, 10y and 30y Gilt yields rose +3.5bps, +8.4bps and +6.5bps. In contrast 10y Bunds were +4.5bps higher. Quickly wrapping up the remaining data yesterday, pending home sales in the US came in a much stronger than expected +3.5% mom (vs. +1.0%  expected). In Europe there was a modest upward surprise in the November flash CPI report in Germany where headline CPI came in at +0.3% mom (vs. +0.2% expected), helping to lift the YoY rate to +1.8% from +1.5% and the highest since February. In France Q3 GDP was left unrevised at +0.5% qoq while in the UK there wasn’t a huge amount interesting in the October money and credit aggregates data. Lending growth in consumer credit continued to flat line slightly but not to levels which would likely concern the BoE.

Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe we’ll kick off with German retail sales data for October alongside the latest November house price data in the UK. Following that we’ll get the flash November CPI report for France where market expectations are for a modest +0.1% mom headline increase. That data comes before the wider Euro area report where the consensus is for a two-tenths increase in the headline to +1.6% yoy and one-tenth increase in the core to +1.0% yoy. In the US the big focus will be on the aforementioned inflation data too with the October personal income, spending and PCE data all due out at 1.30pm GMT. Also due is the November Chicago PMI and the latest weekly initial jobless claims data. The big focus away from the data will be a possible Senate vote on tax reform while central bank speakers today include the ECB’s Mersch (at 8am GMT) and Praet (10am GMT), Fed’s Kaplan (6pm GMT) and BoE’s Sharp (6.10pm GMT). The OPEC meeting in Vienna is also worth keeping a close eye on given that the meeting should include a discussion around extending production cuts.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 20.67 points or .62% /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 446.48 pts or 1.51% / The Nikkei closed UP 127.76 POINTS OR 0.57%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.64%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.6150/Oil DOWN to 57.85 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.27 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN .    ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6150. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.6210 //ONSHORE YUAN WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE WEAKER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS STRONGER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS NOT  HAPPY TODAY.(MARKETS VERY WEAK)

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

NORTH KOREA/South Korea

South Korea received good news that its Industrial Production instead of rising 3% this month plunged 5.9% year/year. Their stock market rallied big on the news..

(courtesy zerohedge)

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

c) REPORT ON CHINA

Chinese and USA economic dialogue goes nowhere and there are no plans to revive talks.  Trump is still adamant at the huge trade imbalances between the two countries.  Nothing will happen with these stalled talks unless Trump initiates huge tariffs..then things will change.

(courtesy zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

It looks like Frankfurt will be the big winner once England leaves the EU. Twenty skyscrapers are now being built to meet with this new “BREXIT demand”

(courtesy zerohedge)

Frankfurt: 20 New Residential Skyscrapers Are Being Built To Meet Brexit Demand

Last month, we discussed how Frankfurt was emerging as the clear winner. When UBS staff were asked to rank which city they would prefer to be relocated to, their options were Frankfurt, Amsterdam and Madrid. Our top picks would have been Paris and Dublin, which didn’t even make the short list. On 19 October 2017, Goldman’s Chairman, Lloyd Blankfein, garnered lots of media attention after he tweeted.

“Just left Frankfurt. Great meetings, great weather, really enjoyed it. Good, because I’ll be spending a lot more time there. #Brexit.”

If Lloyds is thinking about buying himself a smart pied-a-terre in Frankfurt, he’s going to have plenty of options as a Brexit-driven construction boom is taking place in the city. The sharp rise in residential property prices is justifying the construction of “skyscrapers”, as Bloomberg explains.

The prices for new condominiums in Frankfurt have now reached such a high level that it pays off for project developers to build high-rise residential buildings and more and more such towers are being built in the German financial capital. This emerges from an assessment by consulting company Bulwiengesa AG.

In 2017 alone, asking prices rose by 15 percent compared to the previous year. A total of eight residential high-rise buildings have been completed since 2014 in the city. 20 more could be added by 2022.Five are currently under construction and another 15 are planned. These are key findings of the study.

“The cost of building skyscrapers is about twice as high as in ordinary multi-storey housing,” Sven Carstensen, Frankfurt branch manager at Bulwiengesa, said in an interview with Bloomberg. “Therefore, you also need correspondingly higher revenue.”

He explains the increase in prices above all with the high demand pressure. Unlike other cities, Frankfurt offers little land potential. That applies especially in the city center, he said. Skyscraper are the answer. A factor should also be the exit of Great Britain from the EU. “The expected influx of Brexit newcomers will help to absorb the volume of high-rise housing,” Carstensen said.

One of the highest profile of the new residential skyscrapers is the 51-storey Grand Tower which, conveniently, has been under construction since the beginning of 2016 – although the Brexit vote was not until 23 June 2016. The Grand Tower will be Germany’s tallest residential building at 172 metres and contain 401 apartments and penthouses.

It’s clear that many thousands of jobs will relocate from London,even if some banks, like UBS, are reversing their initial apocalyptic estimates (one fifth of its 5,000 strong workforce). While the exact figure is subject to debate, some commentators are predicting that Frankfurt will be the recipient of more than half. Bloomberg continues.

While it is unknown how many bankers will ultimately move to Frankfurt, there are plenty of forecasts. “We expect that at least half of London’s declining financial jobs will be relocated to Frankfurt, which will be at least 8,000 employees over a period of several years,” Helaba Chief Economist Gertrud Traud said at the end of August.

According to Bulwiengesa, this year’s highest construction activity for new condominiums overall, not just for high-rise buildings, can be found in downtown Frankfurt. The consulting firm identified 24 projects with around 2200 apartments in this area. The company takes a closer look at the market once a year. The weighted average price of new condominiums is around 6190 euros per square meter in Frankfurt, according to the data.

Skyscrapers are not new for Frankfurt. In the office sector, they have long dominated the skyline. But now they are increasingly being built for apartments. Carstensen: “There are thus few acceptance problems – both from the administration and from the urban society”.

While the shiny new towers will help, Frankfurt’s attempts to shake off its dull image and promote itself as a “lifestyle destination” still ring a little hollow. As the architecture magazine, Dezeen, noted.

Frankfurt lacks the cultural and lifestyle attractions of London as well as continental rivals such as Paris and Amsterdam, but is now working hard to become more appealing to high-spending financial workers.

Time will tell, but our question is how will the former London-based UBS or Goldman employee, who relocated to Frankfurt, feel on a cold Monday night as he sips a glass of Riesling 25 floors up in his glass tower?

end

Despite an improvement in the unemployment rate, the EU cannot get their inflation expectations up to 2%.  It rose from 1.5% to 1.6%
(courtesy zerohedge)

Euro Area Inflation Unexpectedly Misses Despite Sliding Unemployment

The euro stumbled, dropping to session lows on Thursday after Eurostat reported that despite a welcome decline in Europe’s unemployment rate to 8.8%, the lowest level in 9 years, Eurozone inflation missed expectations, rising from 1.4% to 1.5%, below the 1.6% consensus expectations, reminding the ECB that Phillips curves around the globe remain broken and that its intention to taper QE and tighten monetary policy may yet be derailed.

Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in November (4.7%, compared with 3.0% in October), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (2.2%, compared with 2.3% in October), services (1.2%, stable compared with October) and non-energy industrial goods (0.4%, stable compared with October).

European core inflation (excluding food, energy and tobacco) remained unchanged at 0.9% in November, below the 1% median estimate by economists. The euro traded lower after the report, and was at $1.1829 at 11:44 a.m in Frankfurt.

Indeed, as Bloomberg reports, the latest price data “outline the dilemma facing the ECB.” and even with the region’s economy set for the fastest growth in a decade and the most broad-based expansion since 1997, a sustained price recovery remains some way off. While policy makers have acknowledged that this development warrants less additional monetary support, ECB President Mario Draghi has advocated a “patient and persistent” approach to exiting the central bank’s stimulus program.

Despite inflation consistently undershooting expectations, policy makers have expressed confidence that economic growth and falling unemployment will eventually feed through to prices. “The solid and broad-based economic recovery in the euro area is continuing,” ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet said on Thursday in Brussels. “The breadth of the expansion is notable.” Despite

“All indications are that the recovery will continue for longer, and that would put pressure on wages and prices going forward,” Vitor Constancio said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Wednesday. “It’s a gradual process, but we see it going in that direction.”

Governing Council members Jens Weidmann and Klaas Knot on Wednesday called for a more a decisive acknowledgment of the strengthening of the economy. “Evidence is mounting the economic outlook will be at least as good as previously forecast, if not even better,” Bundesbank President Weidmann said. “This development should continue for a while.”

Still the latest data means that when the ECB’s Governing Council next meets on Dec. 14, it will be faced once again with a picture of solid economic growth and subdued prices pressures. Policy makers announced in October that they will halve its current monthly pace of bond buying starting January and running until at least September.

“Absent deflation risk, a full phasing-out of net asset purchases from September 2018 onward is warranted,” Knot said in London.

This says it all:  the ECB will have a tough time raising rates as sovereigns cannot afford the higher rates as will create a systemic mess:
(courtesy Graham Summers/Phoenix Capital

The ECB Comes Clean On Rising Rates and the Coming Systemic Reset

Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Remember how the Fed, ECB and others all claimed ZIRP and QE were about generating economic growth, making mortgages more affordable, and helping consumers?

Well, that was a gigantic lie. The truth is that every major policy employed by Central Banks since 2008 have been about one thing…

Maintaining the bond bubble.

Governments around the world have used the bubble in bonds to finance their bloated budgets. If interest rates were anywhere NEAR normal levels, most countries would lurch towards default in a matter of weeks.

If you think this is conspiracy theory, consider that the European Central Bank openly admitted this in its semi-annual Financial Stability Review this week:

Even so, [the ECB] said that “higher interest rates may trigger concerns about sovereigns’ debt-servicing capacity,”and noted that “distrust in mainstream political parties continues to rise, leading to fragmentation of the political landscape away from the established consensus.”

Source: Bloomberg.

In plain speak, the ECB is admitting here that if rates were to rise, the financial world would quickly realize that most countries couldn’t finance their debt payments. Indeed, the five largest economies in the world are all near or above Debt to GDP levels of 100%

As I explained in my bestseller, The Everything Bubble: the Endgame For Central Bank Policy, the bubble in bonds is what finances this entire mess. It’s what lets the political class continue to spend money the government doesn’t have. And it’s why the entire financial system is now in a bubble.

Remember, sovereign bonds are the bedrock for the current fiat-based financial system, so when they go into a bubble, EVERYTHING goes into a bubble, as all risk assets adjust to ridiculously cheap interest rates.

This is why I coined the term The Everything Bubble in 2014It’s also why I wrote a book on this issue as well as what’s coming down the pike: because when this bubble bursts (as all bubbles do) the policies Central Banks employ will make those from 2008-2015 look like a cakewalk.

We are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s to come when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards
Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

end

they now agree on a formula by paying a certain percentage of forward EU budgets:

(courtesy zerohedge)

EU Agrees On Financial Settlement With The UK On Future Committments, Formula For “Brexit Divorce Bill”

Confirming reports from earlier in the week that the EU and UK have agreed on a financial settlement for outstanding obligations as well as a formula for calculating the Brexit “divorce” bill, Reuters is out with the following headlines:

  • EUROPEAN UNION HAS AGREED A FINANCIAL SETTLEMENT WITH BRITAIN ON FUTURE COMMITMENTS – SENIOR EU OFFICIAL
  • LONDON HAS COMMITTED TO PAYING A SET SHARE OF EU BUDGETS AFTER LEAVING EU – SENIOR EU OFFICIAL
  • NO DISCUSSION OF NUMBERS, BUT BRITAIN AGREES ON FORMULA FOR CALCULATING BRITISH DIVORCE BILL – SENIOR EU OFFICIAL

With much of the rally in cable having already taken place in the past few days, which have seen the pair surge by 300 pips in three days, GBPUSD is up 30 pips on the headlines, once again pushing on 1.3520 despite the strong USD.

5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

As promised to you, trader Zarrab confirms that Erdogan approved the “secret Iran gold” trade.  This violated USA sanctions.  The Turkish lira tumbles

(courtesy zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7.OIL ISSUES

a deal looks questionable in oil as WTI slumps

(courtesy zerohedge)

WTI Slumps Despite OPEC ‘Deal’ As Russia Questions Remain

Both WTI and RBOB prices are tumbling this morning after OPEC member agree to limit oil output through the end of 2018. While this is bullishly longer-than-expected (6-9mo was expected), OPEC members now rely on Russia to agree to these terms, and it appears the market is questioning that. Furthermore, despite US shale output at record highs, Saudi officials are shrugging off any impact.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, OPEC members agreed in principle Thursday to keep limiting their output through the end of 2018, according to people familiar with the matter, providing assurance for an oil industry still struggling through a fragile recovery.

The accord signals that the world’s biggest oil-producing countries believe that a global oversupply of oil is still weighing down oil prices, even a year after they struck their first agreement to cut crude production. Oil in storage—a proxy for the global glut—remains well above historical averages, national oil ministers said.

Any agreement OPEC strikes will be contingent on support from a group of producers outside the cartel led by Russia, which pumps more crude than any country in the world. The Russia-led delegations are meeting with OPEC to hash out a final agreement.

It appears the market is questioning Russia’s acquiescence…

As one wonders ho3w much longer Russia will allow this…

 

But the Saudis do not appear to be woried… (as WSJ notes), overshadowing Thursday’s event are American shale producers, whose techniques allow faster increasing and decreasing of production with the direction of oil prices.

Some big oil producers have expressed concern that OPEC could overstimulate the oil market with production cuts that are too deep for too long, pumping prices high enough for shale to flood the market.

U.S. production is expected to reach a record of about 10 million barrels a day this year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Mr. Falih said he wasn’t worried about shale producers flooding the market again. “Global demand will absorb shale,” he said.

Notably, as Reuters reports, Non-OPEC Russia, which this year reduced production significantly with OPEC for the first time, has been pushing for a clear message on how to exit the cuts so the market doesn’t flip into a deficit too soon, prices don’t rally too fast and rival U.S. shale firms don’t boost output further.

Before the earlier, OPEC-only meeting started at the group’s headquarters in Vienna on Thursday, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said it was premature to talk about exiting the cuts at least for a couple of quarters and added that the group would examine progress at its next meeting in June.

“When we get to an exit, we are going to do it very gradually … to make sure we don’t shock the market,” he said.

 end
A deal has been made but oil moves down on a sell on the news scenario
(courtesy zerohedge)

OPEC Meeting Concludes: This Is What Was Agreed

As previewed earlier this morning, when the flurry of leaks began, today OPEC reached a deal with non-OPEC partners to extend the oil production cuts until end of 2018 (recall these were supposed to be “temporary” when originally unveiled one year ago) at their meeting in Vienna, as part of producers’ strategy to reduce global inventory levels.  Below is a summary, via Bloomberg, of the key items agreed on:

  • Analysts had previously predicted an extension; a survey showed 9 months as the most likely duration, measured from end of March 2018
  • Thursday’s Vienna agreement will have an effective start date of Jan. 1 and run through end-December 2018, superseding previous deal
  • Total volume of supply cutbacks from participating nations was left unchanged at ~1.8m b/d, ministers say
  • In addition, Nigeria and Libya agreed to a collective cap of 2.8m b/d; they had previously been exempt from supply curbs
  • Discussions in Vienna progressed as expected, with Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee proposing on Wednesday an extension of 6 to 9 months, with a preference for 9
  • Thursday’s meeting has concluded; deal will be reviewed at June meeting
  • Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee to meet every 3 months, chaired by Saudi Arabia and Russia

A key part of today’s agreement was the provision that a “further adjustment” would be considered in June.

In view of the uncertainties associated mainly with supply and, to some extent, demand growth, it is intended that in June 2018, the opportunity of further adjustment actions will be considered based on prevailing market conditions and the progress achieved toward re-balancing of the oil market at the time.

Confirming this was a statement from the Russian energy minister Novak, who said that the agreement can be adjusted in June – suggesting the deal is in reality a 6 month extension – if the situation changes.

The OPEC communique, in its raw form:

As for the energy complex, in line with the Goldman forecast that today’s meeting would likely be a sell the news event, both WTI and Brent are trading near session lows.

 end

8. EMERGING MARKET

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1839 DOWN .0012/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/ /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES all GREEN 

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.33 UP 0.221(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/

GBP/USA 1.3438 UP .0021 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS/MAY IN TROUBLE WITH HER OWN PARTY/

USA/CAN 1.2891 UP .0027(CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 12 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1847; / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 20.67 POINTS OR .62% / Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 446.48 POINTS OR 1.51% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.64% / EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN 

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED UP 127.76 POINTS OR 0.57%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 446.48 POINTS OR 1.51% / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.67 POINTS OR .62% /Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.64% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED UP 127.76 POINTS OR 0.57%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1281.75

silver:$16.52

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.382% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)

The 30 yr bond yield 2.823 UP 0 IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 93.39 UP 23 CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.872% DOWN 5 in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.039% UP 1  in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.446% DOWN 4  IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.748 DOWN 4 POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 31 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.367% DOWN 2 IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1900 UP.0048 (Euro UP 48 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 112.28 UP 0.284(Yen DOWN 28 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3505 UP 0.089( POUND UP 89 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2884 UP  .0021 Canadian dollar DOWN 21 Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $57,27

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This afternoon, the Euro was UP 48 to trade at 1.1900

The Yen fell to 112.28 for a LOSS of 29 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND ROSE BY 89 basis points, trading at 1.3505/

The Canadian dollar FELL by 21 basis points to 1.2884 WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO : $57.27

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.6091
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.039% UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.399% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.834 UP 1  in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 92.98 DOWN 18 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/BREAKS RESISTANCE OF 92.00

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED DOWN 66.89 POINTS OR 0.90%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 37.89 POINTS OR 0.29%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 25.26 POINTS OR 0.47%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 56.70 POINTS OR 0.55%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 42.35 POINTS OR 0.19%

The Dow closed UP 331.67 POINTS OR 1.39%

NASDAQ WAS closed UP 49.58 Points OR 0.73% 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 57.27 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 62.28 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 58.43 DOWN 20/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 20 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO +.367% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$57.36

BRENT: $62.63

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.413% (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.832%

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1912 up .0061

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.56 UP 0.561

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 92.99 down 18 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3532 : UP 116 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHT

Canadian dollar: 1.2890 DOWN 26 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.367%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

McCain Mania Sends Dow Soaring To Record Highs As Yield Curve Collapse Continues

The longest short-squeeze streak in history continues…

John McCain’s “Yes” at 1051ET seems to have been the catalyst that extended overnight gains into melt-up mania… (Small Cap smanaged to scramble back green on the day as Trannies rose 2%)

But the Nasdaq remains red on the week…

Futures show the crazy moves best…

The market is convincing itself that tax reform is going to happen as high-tax stocks soar relative to low-tax…

And bookies’ odds are soaring to 80%…

The short-squeeze continues for a record 10th day in a row (the biggest percentage squeeze since the election)

Financials and Retailers are ripping higher…

But even Bloomberg notes that this looks a lot like a short squeeze…“There’s a short squeeze here,” said Eric Balchunas, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “XRT is being lent by people who borrowed it, so the release valve when that happens is they have to create new shares.”

But while everyone was excited about The Dow, Tech stocks barely managed a blip in context to yesterday’s turmoil…

On the month, FANG and SOX were lower…

On the month, Trannies were best – roaring higher in the last week…

The Momo vs Value chaos this week seems to have normalized the month’s moves…

Here’s the month in bonds/stocks… equities rally, bonds ignore it, then stocks plunge back to reality and they both squeeze higher…

HYG (high yield bonds) fell for the 2nd straight month – the biggest drop since October 2016 and remain below the 200DMA…

While bonds were all sold on the day, the short-end underperformed…

Once again flattening the yield curve in the face of the equity market melt up…5s30s -3bps!

On the month, yields are very mixed with the short-end higher and long-end lower…

In fact the 2s30s yield curve collapse in November is the biggest flattening since Sept 2011

While on the topic of rates, very few mainstream media types have commented on the massive spike in EONIA the last two days!!

European money markets were shaken by an unexpected jump in the Eonia benchmark rate for the second time Thursday, that left the overnight interbank rate 12.1 basis points higher and traders looking for answers. The move spurred heavy selling across front-end euribors. Bund and Treasury futures were also weighed, extending earlier losses. Traders had few explanations for the sudden move, the scale of which would normally be justified by a shift in the European Central Bank’s benchmark rate. One potential reason is month-end related flows, such as an account locking in funding for the turn of the month a day early, a trader in New York said. Thursday’s fix was higher by 6bps at -0.241%, highest since March 9 2016 and comes after Wednesday’s 6.1bp move higher; the European Money Markets Institute (EMMI), which publishes Eonia, said that Wednesday’s fixing data was correct.

The Dollar Index ended November lower – the first drop since July…

On the month, gold managed to cling to green as Crude led the gains with copper and silver lower…

Gold tumbled once again but managed to scramble and close abovee its 200DMA (blue dotted line)…

Finally, we note that Bitcoin was up 49% in November (slightly less than the 52% gain in October)…

Bonus Chart: Your Fun-durr-mental driven equity markets…

end

Trading today:

WTF! Equity Markets Go Full Bitcoin

Well that escalated really quickly…

And as stocks go full bitcoin, VIX is surging higher too…

Quite a different picture… Dow +350 Points

Tax Trumps Nukes…

National Chicago manufacturing PMI  (soft data) drops from a 6 year high with new orders slowing down

(courtesy Chicago PMI/zerohedge)

Chicago PMI Drops From 6 Year Highs As New Orders Slow

After reaching its highest since March 2011 in October, Chicago Business Barometer dropped in November (but beat expectations) amid slowing New orders.

Chicago PMI dropped from 66.2 to 63.9, better than the 63.0 expectations…

Under the covers:

  • Prices paid rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • New orders rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Employment rose and the direction reversed, signaling expansion
  • Inventories rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • Production rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • Order backlogs rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Business activity has been positive for 12 months over the past year.

As good as it gets?

end

a must read…
(courtesy James Rickards)

Three Critical Dates For The Fed

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

I managed a track and field in team in high school. I was not the team coach, I was a student-manager who helped out with equipment, scheduling, training and other logistics.

Back in the days before internet I was the kid in the locker room phoning in athlete times and results to the local newspapers before the deadline for the next day’s edition.

I loved the faster track events like the 440-yard sprint and the half-mile distances. I always thought the most challenging track event was the high-hurdles. This combined speed and endurance, with precision coordination and athleticism on the jumps. One mistake in mid-air could result in a disastrous crash on a cinder track and a bloody injury.

It’s hard to picture Janet Yellen in a track suit, but she’s about to run a high-hurdle race of her own. She needs to clear three hurdles perfectly to make it to her self-imposed rate hike finish line on December 13. One false move and her plan to hike rates could end up in a bloody mess on a cinder track.

As you know, the Fed is on track (no pun intended) to hike rates at their FOMC meeting on December 13. This is as close to a “done deal” as you can get. Markets give this rate hike a 100% probability based on the implied probability from the CME fed funds futures contracts.

I’m the outlier.

I’m alone on an island saying that the Fed won’t hike rates based on nine straight months of bad inflation data. I’m not trying to be “in consensus” or “out-of-consensus,” I’m just trying to follow a Fed model that has been almost flawless in its predictive power since 2013.

That model has hit a lot of home runs. If I strike out this time, I’m not going to abandon the model. Even Babe Ruth, Henry Aaron and Willie Mays had their share of strikeouts even as they had slugging percentages in the .700+ range. Fine by me if we can keep up those kinds of long-term results.

Yet, even if you don’t use my Fed model or don’t like to be out-of-consensus, you still have to acknowledge the hurdles facing Janet Yellen as she races down the track to December 13.

Here they are:

Today, November 30:

This is when the Commerce Department releases the “PCE deflation, core year-over-year” number. Sounds geeky, but that’s the specific inflation number the Fed uses as a benchmark.

The Fed’s target is 2%. The last reading was 1.3%, down from 1.9% at the beginning of 2017.

If this number comes in at 1.3% or less (expectations are at 1.4%), it’s hard to see how the Fed raises rates unless they are willing to ignore their own benchmark in favor of the mythical Phillips Curve and even more mythical “stimulus” effects of the proposed Trump tax bill.

Important voices like Neel Kashkari, Charles Evans, Lael Brainard, Benn Steil and others are already warning that a rate hike in December could be a huge blunder if the inflation data is weak.

We’ll see how this plays out. For now I’m betting on more weak data and that the Fed blinks at the last minute by not raising rates.

Friday, December 1

This is when the Senate votes on the Trump tax bill. The actual macroeconomic effects of this bill are irrelevant for the moment. What matters is the importance of a “win” for the Republican Party and the stock market.

Right now the Republicans do not have the 50 votes they need. Can they get them by Friday? That’s uncertain, but there’s a good chance they won’t succeed.

In that case, you’ll have a replay of the failure the of Obamacare “Repeal and Replace” drama. Markets will sell off big time if the tax bill fails. That kind of sell off, plus the failure of the presumed stimulus will be enough to get the Fed to pause in their rate hike path on December.

Friday, December 8

This is when the government spending authority shuts down and the Treasury hits the debt ceiling. A “Daily Double” for government dysfunction!

The debt ceiling won’t immediately impact the Treasury market because the Treasury can use “extraordinary measures” (including a gold price reset) to keep paying the bills until early next year. Then a hard debt ceiling will be hit. Still, any market uncertainty is one more reason not to raise rates.

[ZH: The T-Bill market is starting to get anxious:]

Of greater immediate impact is a government shutdown. Of course, shutdowns have happened in the past, and have always been temporary, never the end of the world. Some last minute fix is possible. Even if the shutdown occurs, it’s likely to be over in a week or so.

But, there are only three business days between the scheduled shutdown and the FOMC meeting. It’s hard to imagine the Fed tightening financial conditions when the entire government (or at least “non-essential personnel”) are locked out of their offices.

The issues that could cause a shutdown are all difficult to compromise including Trump’s “Wall,” Obamacare funding bailouts, Planned Parenthood funding, immigration, disaster relief, flood insurance bailouts, and many more.

Here’s the bottom line:

If PCE is hot (1.6% or higher), the tax bill passes, and the government does not shut down, then Yellen has cleared all three hurdles, and she’s on her way to a rate hike finish line.

If she stumbles on any one of these hurdles, let alone all three, then a rate hike is off the table. If the odds of failure are each hurdle are 33% (about right in my view), then the odds of failure on one out of three are 99%.

No one in the market is thinking about the odds that way, but a statistician will tell you that’s the right way to analyze it.

Since markets are 100% priced for a rate hike, nothing much happens if the FOMC actually hikes rates. But if the rate hike does not happen, markets need to reprice for the new reality. That means gold, euros, yen, and Treasury bonds will soar, and the dollar, bond yields, and stocks could crumble.

These are asymmetric “heads you win, tails you don’t lose” trades. You could have big gains if the Fed pauses, but won’t lose much if they don’t.

These hurdles are coming up in days, so the time to enter these trades is now. The easiest way is to buy gold or gold mining stocks.

Then sit back and enjoy the show.

end

PCE up a tick but still well below its mandate:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Fed’s Most-Watched Inflation Indicator Ticks Up In October – Still Well Below Mandate

The Fed’s most-watched inflation indicator – Core PCE – has been on a downward trend since short-term peaking in January (and yet the need to keep hiking rates has remained). However, October’s 1.4% rise (as expected) offers some hope to Janet, Jay, and their friends that an inflection point has been reached in the transitory disinflationary spiral.

As Bloomberg notes, the central bank’s preferred price gauge, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2 percent in October from the prior month.

September’s monthly gain was revised upward to 0.2 percent from 0.1 percent, making for the fastest consecutive increases since January and February.

Including all items, prices rose 1.6 percent from a year earlier following an upwardly revised 1.7 percent; the so-called core measure was up 1.4 percent for a second month.

While the latest figures indicate progress toward the Fed’s 2 percent goal, inflation remains below target on an annual basis, as it has for most of the past five years.

Markets are not going to like this: Trump is set to replace Tillerson with Mike Pompeo

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Set To Replace Tillerson With Pompeo “Within Weeks”: NYT

Rumors have circulated for months that Rex Tillerson’s time at the helm of the State Department might soon be coming to the end. Tensions between the two men – who could forget “morongate”? – have apparently worsened since the spring, when reports first emerged that Tillerson and Trump had different views on important foreign policy issues like the Iran deal and North Korea. Trump was famously accused of “castrating” his secretary of state in the eyes of the global diplomatic community when he chided Tillerson not to bother pursuing diplomatic talks with the North Koreans.

Pompeo has long been rumored (as we pointed out in Octoberto be Tillerson’s obvious replacement, given his foreign policy expertise as head of the CIA and a reportedly close relationship with Trump – the two meet every day for Trump’s intelligence briefing. Pompeo’s reportedly become “a trusted policy adviser” to the president, according to the Times. Before the CIA, Pompeo was a Congressman from Vice President Mike Pence’s home state of Indiana.

And now, the New York Times is reporting that Tillerson could be out “within weeks.” For the former ExxonMobile CEO, an end-of-year exit would make his time in office the shortest of any secretary of state whose tenure was not ended by a change in presidents in nearly 120 years. Tillerson has reportedly been holding out until year end to try and end his tenure with a little dignity.

Pompeo would then be replaced at the CIA by Senator Tom Cotton, a Republican from Arkansas who has been a key ally of the president on national security matters, according to the White House plan. Cotton has signaled that he would accept the job if offered, said the officials, who insisted on anonymity to discuss sensitive deliberations before decisions are announced.

However, there’s the story comes with one crucial caveat: According to the Times, it was not immediately clear whether Trump has given final approval to the plan, but he has been said to have soured on Tillerson and in general is ready to make a change at the State Department.

White House chief of staff John Kelly developed the transition plan and has discussed it with other officials, who presumably shared it with the Times. Under his plan, the shake-up of the national security team would happen around the end of the year or shortly afterward.

As the Times points out, Tillerson’s tenure has been marred by “turbulent” relations with his boss:

The ouster of Mr. Tillerson would end a turbulent reign at the State Department for the former Exxon Mobile chief executive, who has been largely marginalized over the last year. Mr. Trump and Mr. Tillerson have been at odds over a host of major issues, including the Iran nuclear deal, the confrontation with North Korea and a clash between Arab allies. The secretary was reported to have privately called Mr. Trump a “moron” and the president publicly criticized Mr. Tillerson for “wasting his time” with a diplomatic outreach to North Korea.

Pompeo’s move is, of course, a setback for Nikki Haley, Trump’s ambassador to the UN, a position that’s typically seen as a stepping stone to leading the state department.

Cotton’s promotion wouldbe a reward for one of Trump’s most loyal supporters in the Senate on national security and immigration issues. However, Cotton’s ascension is not yet completely assured: There’s still some debate about whether he’d be more use to Trump in Langley, or in the senate.

If Cotton leaves, his seat will be up for grabs in 2018.

Tillerson would mark the latest in a string of more than a dozen high-profile departures from the Trump administration during its first year. He’s also probably the most high-profile figure to depart since Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price resigned after being exposed for taking expensive chartered flights at taxpayer expense.

Sally Yates
Michael Flynn
Katie Walsh
Preet Bharara
James Comey
Michael Dubke
Walter Shaub
Mark Corralo
Sean Spicer
Micheal Short
Reince Priebus
Anthony Scaramucci
Steve Bannon
Sebastian Gorka
Tom Price

…and (maybe) Rex Tillerson?

This ought to hurt:  a big bun supplier to McDonald loses a wuge 35% of its staff to immigration raids

(courtesy zerohedge)

McDonald’s Bun-Supplier Loses 35% Of Staff To Immigration Raids

President Trump has made it widely known that he will not tolerate sanctuary cities like Baltimore, Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York. Since taking office, he has threatened to slash federal funding to cities who do not comply with federal immigrations laws, along with ICE agents circumnavigating local authorities in a nationwide federal operation to arrest undocumented immigrants.

In the latest immigration raids, ICE agents targeted a Swiss supplier of hamburger buns for McDonald’s Corp., who saidit’s Chicago bakery lost 35% or about 800 of its workers at the Cloverhill Plant.

The company is owned by Zurich-based Aryzta AG, who makes baked products for fast-food chains and supermarkets.

ICE agents pinpointed the Chicago bakery after its job placement agency went under federal investigation earlier this year.

Kevin Toland, Chief Executive Officer of Aryzta said on a call with analyst, “it’s proceeding very, very slowly because it’s like having a brand new factory and a brand new workforce. That’s presenting a lot of challenges, as you can imagine.”

According to Bloomberg, President Trump’s immigration raids are a major headache for U.S. companies who employ undocumented works. The challenges that Aryzta faces are likely to cause short term economic pain for the company, but on the longer end could cause its end products to increase prices directly impacting the consumer.

The raid on workers at Cloverhill is one of the biggest U.S. employment headaches reported by a European company so far as President Donald Trump has made curbing undocumented immigration a centerpiece of his presidency. Aryzta said it faces challenges in retaining staff in the U.S. and pressure to raise wages.

For employers, the loss of illegal immigrants can be expensive. Training a new workforce of American hires can increase the cost of labor and certainly cut into margins.

But in Cloverhill’s case, the cost of labor is relatively inexpensive not because of the illegal immigrants, but each of their factories (2) have highly automated production lines that involve minimal human interaction. Future wage pressures are not expected to threaten profitability too much due to automation, but in the intermediate timeframe a severe loss in margins is due to volume loss.

According to RTthe Chicago Immigration Court has never been busier since President Trump entered office. Across the United States, there are an estimated 11 million illegal immigrants, which signals immigration raids are just getting started.

The Chicago Immigration Court has 24,844 pending cases in its system as of this spring, according to the DOJ’s Executive Office for Immigration Review. That is up from 13,000 pending cases in 2010. Nationally, the pending caseload has doubled since 2011.

According to EOIR, total orders for removal between Trump’s inauguration and the close of the fiscal year hit 63,634. At the end of fiscal year 2017, some 1,940 people were detained in Chicago, up from 1,669 at the end of the prior year. Most of them are of Mexican descent, statistics show.

The Trump administration set in motion sweeping changes in how the federal government dealt with those living in the US illegally. It is estimated there are 11 million immigrants living the US without legal status.

He probably is correct:  Bitcoin is the poster boy for an unhinged financial system
(courtesy David Stockman/ContraCorner)

Stockman: “Bitcoin Is The Poster-Boy For An Unhinged Financial System”

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

The lemmings are now in full stampede toward the cliffs. You can literally hear the cold waters churning, foaming and crashing on the boulders far below.

From bitcoin to Amazon, the financials, the Russell 2000 and most everything else in between, the casinos are digesting no information except the price action and are relentlessly rising on nothing more than pure momentum. The mania has gone full retard.

Certainly earnings have nothing to do with it. As of this morning, the Russell 2000, for instance, was trading at 112X reported LTM earnings.

Likewise, Q3 reporting is all over except for the shouting and reported LTM earnings for the S&P 500 came in $107 per share. That’s of signal importance because fully 36 months ago, S&P earnings for the September 2014 LTM period posted at $106 per share.

That’s right. Three years and $1 of gain. They talking heads blather about “strong earnings” only because they think we were born yesterday.

What happened in-between, of course, was the proverbial pig passing through the python.

First, the global oil, commodities and industrial deflation after July 2014 took earnings to a low of $86.44 per share in the March 2016 LTM period.

After that came the opposite—the massive 2016-2017 Xi Coronation Stimulus in China. The new Red Emperor and his minions pumped out an incredible $6 trillion wave of new credit, thereby artificially stimulating a global rebound and a profits recovery back to where it started three years ago.

The difference of course is that $106 of earnings back then were priced at an already heady (by historical standards) 18.6X, whereas $107 of earnings today are being priced at a truly lunatic 24.6X.

After all, nothing says earnings bust ahead better than an aging business cycle, a cooling Red Ponzi, an epochal shift toward central bank QT (quantitative tightening) and a massive Washington Fiscal Cliff. Yet every one of those headwinds are self-evident and have made their presence known with a loud clang in the last few days.

Self-evidently, we are now 36 months closer to the next recession in a business cycle which at 101 months is already approaching the 1990s record of 118 months and facing far greater headwinds. Foremost among these is the unprecedented but unavoidable turn of the central banks—after two decades of relentless expansion— toward interest rate normalization, QT (quantitative tightening) and trillions of debt and other securities sales (demonetization or balance sheet shrinkage).

The new Janet Yellen in tie and trousers made that perfectly clear at yesterday’s confirmation hearing:

Powell said he expected the balance sheet to shrink to about $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion over the next three to four years under a program set in motion by Yellen..….On interest rates, Powell said: “I think the case for raising interest rates at our next meeting is coming together.”

Actually, the promised balance sheet shrinkage process is going to rapidly escalate from $10 billion per month of Fed bond sales now, to $30 billion by spring and $50 billion by next October. That amounts to a $600 billion annual run rate; and when the ECB and other banks join the “normalization” party in 2019 and beyond total central bank bond sales will pierce through the $1 trillion per year level.

And that’s a very big deal because the law of supply and demand has not yet been abolished, meaning prices and yields in the global bond market are heading for a big reset. For instance, if the UST 10-year benchmark note normalizes to a yield of 4.0%, its price will fall by more than 40% from current levels (2.35%).

Needless to say, the entire market for risk assets including equities, junk bonds, corporates and real estate is predicated upon current ultra low yields and historically unprecedented leverage. So smash the price of the benchmark bond by 40% and you have a cascading chain of downward valuation adjustments that will reach the tens of trillions.

But that’s not all. The 19th Party Congress is over, but the Red Suzerains of Beijing wasted no time throttling down China’s red hot credit bubble and hyperventilating housing market. The chart below is the smoking gun—-and puts the lie to the foolish Wall Street meme of the moment that the world economy is in the midst of an outburst of “synchronized growth”.

Actually, it’s puffing on the exhaust fumes of a veritable housing hysteria during the run-up to China’s 19th Party Congress, which saw home mortgage issuance soar by nearly 60% in 2016.

Now, however, Beijing’s clampdown is giving Ross Perot’s famous “sucking sound to the south” an altogether new definition. In the most recent period, year over year mortgage growth actually turned negative—-meaning China’s gigantic apartment construction and building materials complex will be cooling rapidly, too.

Needless to say, what happens in the Red Ponzi does not stay in the Red Ponzi. The modestly rebounding global figures for industrial production, trade and GDP reported recently were just feeding off the massive credit impulse evident in the red line below.

When S&P earnings were peaking back in September 2014, China’s total credit growth from all sources—including its $15 trillion shadow banking system—had slowed to a 15% annual run rate, but then was gunned to upwards of 30% during the Coronation Boom from early 2016 onwards.

But now that Mr. Xi’s very thoughts have been enshrined in the Communist Party constitution—check-by-jowl with the wisdom of the Great Helmsman, Mao Zedong—-credit growth is plummeting. Even China’s new Red Emperor recognizes that $40 trillion of debt on a purported $12 trillion economy (actually far lower when massive malinvestments are deleted from the reported GDP “flows”) is a recipe for collapse.

Xi Jinping may well be delusional about the capacity of centralized bureaucrats–even ones with all the guns— to tame and stabilize the greatest Ponzi-style digging, constructing, borrowing, spending and speculating scheme in recorded history. But his goal is a third term in 2022, and in the interim he means to mop down China’s fevered borrowing and building spree with alacrity.

Accordingly, the global commodity and CapEx cycle will rapidly weaken as the red line in the chart heads toward the flat-line. The talking heads will not be gumming about synchronized global growth much longer.

KM5

But what they will be talking about soon is a US Fiscal Cliff like none before. It now seems that the desperate GOP politicians of Capitol Hill have come up with so many fiscal gimmicks that they may actually cobble together 51 votes in the Senate.

But the emerging Rube Goldberg Contraption, which sunsets all of the individual tax cuts after 2025, and then piles on top a “trigger tax”, which most surely would turn the whole things into massive ($350 billion) tax increase after a 2024 “growth” test, is actually a giant debt trap.

In fact, between 2018 and 2024 the emerging Senate “compromise” would generate upwards of $1.4 trillion of new debt including interest on the added borrowing. That’s because as we explained yesterday the Senate tax bill is front-loaded with the annual revenue loss peaking at $250 billion in 2020 and diminishing steadily thereafter to just $145 billion in 2025 and a slight surplus in 2027.

Consequently, the public debt builds up rapidly in the early years—long before any added growth could possibly move the needle. We will provide more detailed calculations on this crucial point tomorrow and completely debunk the “growth will pay for it” story.

But suffice it to say here that the massive front-loaded borrowing embedded in the Senate tax bill would come on top of the $6.1 trillionalready built into the CBO baseline for the 2018-2024 period and another $1 trillion that will be needed for disaster relief and the Donald’s massive defense build-up and dramatically heightened pace of global military operations.

In a word, we do not think you can finance $8.5 trillion of new Federal debt in an environment in which the Fed and its convoy of fellow traveling central banks are also selling bonds by the trillions. That is, without triggering a “crowding out” effect of the kind that has been in hibernation every since Greenspan’s cranked up the Eccles Building printing presses after the 22% stock market plunge in October 1987.

The irony is that the GOP is setting up a fiscal cliff which will exceed $1 trillion per year of new borrowing as early as 2020 ($775 billionbaseline plus $225 billion of revenue losses and added interest from the tax cut) based on the erroneous view that domestic economic growth is being stunted by high corporate taxes.

This chart below should put the lie to that confusion once and for all. Even as the effective corporate tax rate has been marching down hill for decades, the trend rate of economic growth has been steadily falling.

Notwithstanding today’s GDP blip, real final sales have grown at just 1.2% per year over the last decade or by only one-third of the rate extant when the effective corporate tax rate was more than double the current 20% level.

Image result for images of effective us corporate tax rate

So today’s lemming actually are marching toward a Fiscal Cliff—- oblivious to the true meaning of the Senate tax bill maneuvers. But by definition, at the blow-off peak of a great financial bubble markets are oblivious to everything except the price action.

In that context, Bitcoin is neither an outlier nor a one-off freak; it’s a poster boy for an unhinged financial system where honest price discovery, two-way markets, fear of risk and financial discipline have been completely destroyed by the central banks.

Whatever its eventual merits as a private money and payment system away from the grasping hand of the Deep State, bitcoin (and the mushrooming slate of other cryptos) at the moment is in the throes of the kind of mania that reminds us of why runaway bubbles eventually generate their own demise.

Image result for bitcoin chart in last year

For want of doubt, Zero Hedge early today calculated out bitcoin’s accelerating rate of rise.

Needless to say, the sequence below is not the birthing throes of a new money being born; it’s just another iteration of the same old lemmings stampeding toward the cliff:

  • $0000 – $1000: 1789 days
  • $1000- $2000: 1271 days
  • $2000- $3000: 23 days
  • $3000- $4000: 62 days
  • $4000- $5000: 61 days
  • $5000- $6000: 8 days
  • $6000- $7000: 13 days
  • $7000- $8000: 14 days
  • $8000- $9000: 9 days
  • $9000-$10000: 2 days
  • $10000-$11000: 1 day

Big dip overnight was bought and as US equity markets prepare to open, Bitcoin just topped $11,000…

end

Well that about does it for today

I will see you FRIDAY night

HARVEY

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