MARCH 8/GOLD DOWN $5.45/SILVER DOWN 1 CENT/BIG NEWS OF THE DAY WAS THE TRIAL BALLOON SENT BY THE ECB WHERE THEY WILL TAPER THEIR QE PURCHASES FROM OCT THROUGH DECEMBER AND THEN STOP/TRUMP ANNOUNCES “NEGOTIABLE” TARIFFS AND EXEMPTS CANADA AND MEXICO WHILE NAFTA TALKS CONTINUE/NORTHERN LEAGUE JOINS BERLUSCONI’S CENTRE RIGHT PARTY AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A GOVERNMENT THAT IS TOTALLY EUROSKEPTIC/SWAMP STORIES/

WORK IN PROGRESS!!

 

GOLD: $1321.15  DOWN $5.45

Silver: $16.49 DOWN 1 CENT

Closing access prices:

Gold $1322.00

silver: $16.49

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1335.83 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1327.45

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $8.38

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1340.26

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1333.75

PREMIUM SECOND FIX /NY:$6.51

SHANGHAI REJECTS NY PRICING OF GOLD.

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1332.50

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1333.10

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1321.00

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1321.00

For comex gold:

MARCH/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR MARCH CONTRACT: 4 NOTICE(S) FOR 400 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR:4 FOR 400 OZ

For silver:

MARCH

30 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

150,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 4554 for 22,770,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $9561/OFFER $9,661: DOWN $129(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $9332/offer $9408: DOWN $538  (CLOSING/5 PM)

 

end

I GUESS THE WORK LOAD OF NEGOTIATING ALL OF THOSE GOLD CONTRACTS IS WEARING OUR CME BOYS DOWN.  FOR THE PAST 6 MONTHS THEY HAVE BEEN LATE IN PROVIDING BUT I WAIT AND PATIENTLY I HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO INCORPORATE THEM INTO THE DAY’S COMMENTARY.

I USED TO RECEIVE THE DATA ALWAYS AT 10 PM, THE NIGHT BEFORE.  IT THEN MORPHED INTO 12 AM AS I STAYED UP TO RECEIVE THE DATA.

THEN IT ARRIVED AT 2 AM

THEN 6 AM

AND NOW, EVEN AT 6.04 PM EST, I DO NOT HAVE THE GOLD EFP DATA.  i RECEIVED THE SILVER EFP DATA AT 5 PM.

THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX DATA FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER IS ACCURATE.

THE ENTIRE SILVER COMEX/EFP DATA IS ACCURATE

I DO NOT HAVE THE DATA FOR GOLD EFP

SO THIS IS WHAT I AM GOING TO DO:

I WILL PUBLISH MY REPORT NOW BUT IT WILL BE WORK IN PROGRESS AND WHEN THE GOLD EFPS ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT , I PROMISE TO UPDATE THE DATA TO FINALIZE THE COMEX DATA FOR YOU.

HARVEY.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 866 contracts from 196,597  FALLING TO 195.724  WITH YESTERDAY’S  27 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING.  WE OBVIOUSLY HAD ZERO COMEX LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER, WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP : 2686 EFP’S FOR MAY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 2686 CONTRACTS.  WITH THE TRANSFER OF 4470 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2686 CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 13.43 MILLION OZ   WITH THE RISE IN OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER AT THE COMEX.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MARCH:

15,663 CONTRACTS (FOR 6 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 15,663 CONTRACTS OR 78.315 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 2610 CONTRACTS OR 13.052 MILLION OZ/DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  78.315 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 11.18% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:  570.79 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018: 236.879 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MONTH OF FEBRUARY: 244.945 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY LOSS  IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX WITH THE 27 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE.  WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2686 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER . FROM THE CME DATA 2686 EFP’S  FOR THE  MONTH OF MAY WERE ISSUED FOR  A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS.   WE GAINED  1820 OI CONTRACTS i.e. 2686 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A DECREASE OF 866  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 27 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.50 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.987 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 140% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 30 NOTICE(S) FOR 150,000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest  FELL BY A TINY 50 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 508,050  DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE FALL IN PRICE YESTERDAY ($8.00) HOWEVER  FOR TUESDAY, THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED AN GOOD SIZED  7473 CONTRACTS  THE ISSUANCE OF,  APRIL SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 7473 CONTRACTS ,  JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS AND THEN ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.    The new OI for the gold complex rests at 508,050. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI  TOGETHER WITH  THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY COMEX. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES. IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD GAIN IN OI  CONTRACTS I.E. 7423 CONTRACTS: 50 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND A GOOD SIZED 7473 OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.(7423 oi GAIN in CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 23.08 TONNES)

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 14232 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH : 61,690 CONTRACTS OR 6,169,000  OZ OR 191.88 TONNES (6 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 10,281 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 1,028,100 OZ/ TRADING DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :   SO FAR THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 191.88 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 191.88/2550 x 100% TONNES =  7.52% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN MARCH ALONE.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:  1442.23 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018: 653.22  TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY: 649.45 TONNES

Result: A  TINY SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE CONSIDERABLE FALL IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($8.00)HOWEVER, WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7473 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE ALSO OBSERVED A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7473 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST OF 7423 contracts ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7473 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 50 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 23.08 TONNES).

we had: 4 notice(s) filed upon for 400 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45 : NO  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD /

Inventory rests tonight: 833.73 tonnes.

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL BY 866  contracts from 196,590 DOWN TO 195,724 (AND now A LITTLE  FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE FALL  IN PRICE OF SILVER  (27 CENTS WITH RESPECT TO  YESTERDAY’S TRADING).   OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER  2686 EFP CONTRACTS FOR MAY  (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM) AND 0 EFP’S FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS .  EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. WE HAD SOME COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF  886 CONTRACTS TO THE 2686 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A GAIN OF 1820  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS  WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN MARCH (SEE BELOW). THE NET GAIN TODAY IN OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  9.100 MILLION OZ!!!

RESULT: A SMALL  DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE STRONG FALL OF 37 CENTS IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING ). BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 2686 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR MARCH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)THURSDAY MORNING/LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 16.74 POINTS OR 0.51% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 457.60 POINTS OR 1.52% / The Nikkei closed UP 115.35 POINTS OR 0.54%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.69%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.3385/Oil DOWN to 60.98 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.03 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX  .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.3385 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3388 /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR . CHINA IS NOT VERY  HAPPY TODAY (STRONGER CURRENCY GOOD CHINESE MARKETS/BUT TRUMP TARIFFS TO BE INITIATED/ ) 

 

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

 i)North Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)A nightmare scenario for the Euro:  Berlusconi backs Northern League to a form a coalition.  Berlusconi’s centre right garnered 14% and northern league got 17%.  Together with the 5 star at 31%, they can form a government.

( zerohedge)

ii)The Euro rises along with Bund yields as Draghi drops his pledge to increase QE if needed.  It looks like these guys are going to taper in September

( zerohedge)

iii)the Euro then gives up its gain when Draghi states he is worried about the USA tariffs and protectionism

( zerohedge)

iv)Trial balloon:  to Bloomberg:  the ECB will tape by 10 billion euros per month starting Oct-December and then stopStarting in 2019 it is only up to Japan’s Kuroda to continue QE

(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey/Cyprus

Turkey is becoming quite belligerent..today they threaten the USA’s Exxon Mobil’s hydrocarbon survey ships and the USA 6th Fleet from participating in a naval exercise . Turkey is the only nation that recognizes Northern Cyprus as a sovereign and this has been going on since 1974. Turkey wants to claim the huge oil/gas discovery for themselves.

(courtesy zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Five banks open up a trillion dollar gold club in London as they are concerned with the perception of manipulation and rigging

( Hobson/ Reuters)

ii)Sound money returns to Wyoming as they pass a bill to end taxation on gold and silver

( Cortez/Sound Money Defense League/GATA)

iii)Japanese regulators crackdown on 7 crypto exchanges and shut down two more

( zerohedge)

iv)I guess the explosion of EFP’s into London is swamping our boys as the now intend to delay gold and silver price fixing auctions

(courtesy Ronan Manly)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

A)Trading:

Fact Vs Fiction: GAAP Earnings Have Yet To Surpass 2013 HIghs

Fact or fiction:  GAAP earnings have yet to surpass 2013 highs

Answer: true

B.

i)JPMorgan  Co President warns that he sees a 40% correction in stocks due to higher interest rates and the inflationary pressures created by tariffs

( zerohedge)

ii)Trump to sign tariffs today with no curve outs/but hints of exemption for Canada and Mexico

( zerohedge)

iib)Canada and Mexico are exempted indefinitely from tariffs and that causes the collar and the peso to soar

( zerohedge)

iic)And now the full details.  Canada and Mexico are off the table for now due to continuing talks on NAFTA.  If Canada and Mexico become long term exemptions then Trump will raise the tariffs on the foreign suppliers.  Countries can negotiate to remove those tariffs if the uSA gets a favourable deal. It does beg the question as to why Cohn resigned.

( zerohedge)

iii)Brandon Smith:  a terrific article.  He correctly states that when a country introduces tariffs it must be done on strength and self sufficiency.  The USA has neither.  Its manufacturing base is at best only 10% of GDP as policies caused many manufacturing sites to travel to other foreign jurisdictions. Trump’s tax cuts will solve nothing as corporations will use the low tax rate to borrow funds and buy back stock instead of investing in the country

a must read.

(Brandon Smith/Alt Market .com)

iv)On the same theme as above David Stockman celebrates the end of the Goldman Sachs regency at the White House

( David Stockman/ContraCorner)

v)Interesting:  even though Charles Koch states that Trump tariffs will help his investment in the steel industry it will lose far more jobs in other industries vs the amount of job gains in the steel and aluminum industry.

(courtesy zerohedge)

vi)This is getting Washington absolutely terrified:  stocks are spooked by reports that Navarro wants Cohn’s job after all

(courtesy zerohedge)

vii)

USA steel will reopen an idle plant and bring back 500 employees.  However the tariffs will hurt downstream users of steel with its higher price

(courtesy zerohedge)

viii)SWAMPVILLE

a)Semi good news:  Sessions has appointed a person outside of Washington to investigate the FISA abuse…but not a second Special counsel
(courtesy zerohedge)
b)Trump had threatened to fire White House lawyer  McGahan III after he refused to deny to Trump the Mueller probe leak
( zerohedge)
c)Phase ii begins with the second dossier trying to propel the Trump-Russian election collusion

( zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY  50 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 508,050  DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($8.00 LOSS/ YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  WE HAD ZERO COMEX GOLD LIQUIDATION.  HOWEVER THE CME REPORTS THAT  THE BANKERS ISSUED AN FAIR SIZED  COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE HAD A 7473 EFP’S ISSUED FOR APRIL ,   0 FOR JUNE AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:  TOTAL  7473 CONTRACTS.  THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON FORWARD… THE COMEX IS NOW AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED TODAY: 7423 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 7473 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST 50 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7423 contracts OR 742,300  OZ OR 23.08 TONNES.

Result: A  GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE FALL IN YESTERDAY’S GOLD TRADING ($8.00.)   TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7423 OI CONTRACTS..

We have now entered the non active contract month of MARCH where we LOST 1 contract DOWN to 607 contracts. We had 0 notices served upon yesterday, so in essence we LOST 1 contact or an additional 100 oz will not stand for delivery at the comex AND THESE BOYS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

April saw a LOSS of 15,510 contracts DOWN to 296,537. May saw another LOSS of 97 contracts to stand at 247. The really big June contract month saw a GAIN of 12,708 contracts UP to 124,469 contracts.

We had 4 notice(s) filed upon today for  400 oz

comex gold volumes are RISING AGAIN

Here is a summary of the latest gold trading volumes at the Comex per year

certainly the introduction of EFP’s has certainly had an effect:

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 262,252 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  345,168 CONTRACTS

comex gold volumes are RISING AGAIN

Here is a summary of the latest gold trading volumes at the Comex per year

certainly the introduction of EFP’s has certainly had an effect:

Meanwhile, gold-trading volumes on the COMEX have never been higher:

end

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL  BY A SMALL 866  CONTRACTS FROM 196,500 UP TO 195,724 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S  27 CENT FALL IN TRADING).   HOWEVER,WE WERE ALSO INFORMED THAT WE HAD  2686 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MAY ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON: THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2686.   THE SILVER BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE JUST LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY. USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AS WE HAVE JUST SEEN IN GOLD TODAY. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST BEGUN IN EARNEST IN SILVER STARTING IN SEPTEMBER 2017. HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS. NICK LAIRD WAS KIND ENOUGH TO SUPPLY US THE TOTAL FOR 2017 GOLD EFP’S AND IT WAS 6600 TONNES FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR.  WE OBVIOUSLY HAD SOME LONG COMEX SILVER LIQUIDATION BUT WE ALSO HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL SILVER OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE ARE ALSO WITNESSING A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR COMEX METAL IN THIS NON ACTIVE JANUARY AS WELL AS THAT CONTINUAL MIGRATION OF EFPS OVER TO LONDON. ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS THERE ARE MORE EFP’S ISSUED FOR GOLD THAN SILVER.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED  1820  SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS

886 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2686 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:1820 CONTRACTS 

AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX

We are now in the  active delivery month of MARCH and here the front month LOST 299 contracts FALLING TO 658 contracts. We had 302 contracts filed upon yesterday, so we GAINED 3 contracts or an additional 15,000 will  stand in this active delivery month of March.(AS SOMEBODY IS IN GREAT NEED OF PHYSICAL SILVER)

April LOST 2 contracts FALLING TO 438 .

The next big active delivery month for silver will be May and here the OI LOST 2577 contracts DOWN to 145,885

We had 30 notice(s) filed for 1,50,000 OZ for the MARCH 2018 contract for silver

INITIAL standings for MARCH/GOLD

MARCH 8/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
NIL oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  20,099.639 OZ

JPM

No of oz served (contracts) today
4 notice(s)
 400 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
603 contracts
(60300 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4 notices
400 oz
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
we had 0 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 0 withdrawals out of the customer account:
total withdrawal: NIL   oz
we had 1 customer deposit
i) Into JPMorgan: 20,099.639 oz
total customer deposits: 20,099.639  oz
we had 0 adjustment(s)
total registered or dealer gold:  339,378.269 oz or 10.556 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   9,125,608.369 oz 283.84 tones
THE COMEX IS AGAIN IN STRESS AS ONLY 10.556 TONNES OF GOLD ARE LEFT TO SERVICE DELIVERIES
 

For MARCH:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 4 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MARCH. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4) x 100 oz or 0 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (607 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (4 x 100 oz per contract) equals 60,700 oz, the number of ounces standing in this nonactive month of MARCH (1.8912 tonnes)

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MARCH contract month:

No of notices served (4 x 100 oz or ounces + {(607)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (4 x 100 oz )which equals 60700 oz standing in this  nonactive delivery month of March . THERE IS 10.556 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE LOST ONE CONTRACT OR AN ADDITIONAL 100 OZ WILL NOT STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH.

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XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 70 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DECEMBER DELIVERY MONTH

MARCH INITIAL standings/SILVER

March 8 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 16,830.052 oz
BRINKS
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
NIL oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
30
CONTRACT(S
(1,50,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
628 contracts
(3,140,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 4554 contracts

(22,770,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

total inventory deposits/withdrawals/ into dealer: nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

ii) JPMorgan:  zero

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 135 million oz of  total silver inventory or 54% of all official comex silver.

JPMorgan did not add any silver into its warehouses (official) today.

total deposits today:  NIL oz

we had 1 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of  BRINKS 16,830.052 oz

total withdrawals; 16,830.052  oz

we had 0 adjustments

total dealer silver:  58.592 million

total dealer + customer silver:  251.707 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the March. contract month is represented by 30 contract(s) FOR 1,50,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in March., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4554 x 5,000 oz = 22,770,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of Mar. (658) and the number of notices served upon today (30 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the March contract month: 4554(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of March(658) -number of notices served upon today (30)x 5000 oz equals 25,910,000 oz of silver standing for the March contract month. 

We GAINED an additional 3 contracts or 15,000 additional silver oz will stand for delivery at the comex as somebody ws in urgent need of physical silver.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 64,369 CONTRACTS

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 101,826 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 101,826 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO  509 MILLION OZ OR 72.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.89% (MARCH 8/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.51% to NAV (March 8/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.89%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.51%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV RISES TO -2.99%: NAV 13.66/TRADING 13.26//DISCOUNT 2.99.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

March 8/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN 8.00/A SLIGHT CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A WITHDRAWAL OF .25 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $15.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

March 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD UP $18.70/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

March 1/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $12.30/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/ A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER 70 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 831.03 TONNES/.

feb 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.80 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 831.03 TONNES

FEB 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.40/WE HAD ANOTHER INVENTORY GAIN/THIS TIME 1.77 TONNE ADDITION TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 831.03 TONNES/WE HAVE HAD 5 INCREASES IN THE PAST 6 TRADING GOLD SESSIONS/

FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15, WE HAD A GOOD INVENTORY GAIN OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.26 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP 90 CENTS AGAIN TODAY, WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.79 TONNES

FEB 21/ WITH THE 90 CENT GAIN WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 827.79 TONNES

Feb 20/WITH GOLD DOWN BY $24.25, THE CROOKS DECIDED THAT THEY HAD BETTER RETURN (DEPOSIT) 3.34 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 824,64 TONNES

Feb 16/WITH GOLD UP BY 25 CENTS, THE CROOKS DECIDED AGAIN TO RAID THE COOKIE JAR BY WITHDRAWING 2.36 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 821.30 TONNES

Feb 15/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.66 TONNES

Feb 14/AN ADDITIONAL OF 2.95 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD WITH THE HUGE GAIN OF 27.40 IN PRICE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.66 TONNES

Feb 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 820.71 TONNES

Feb 12/STRANGE!!WITH GOLD RISING BY 12.00 DOLLARS, THE CROOKS DECIDED AGAIN TO WITHDRAW 5.6 TONNES OF GOLD FOR EMERGENCY USE ELSEWHERE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 820.71 TONNES

Feb 9/AGAIN WITH HUGE TURMOIL ON THE MARKETS, THE CROOKS WITHDREW 2 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 826.31 TONNES

Feb 8/DESPITE THE GOOD GAIN IN PRICE FOR GOLD TODAY/THE CROOKS REMOVED .96 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.31 TONNES

FEB 7/AN UNBELIEVABLE 12.08 TONNES WAS REMOVED BY THE CROOKED BANKERS AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN THE ASSAULT THESE PAST FEW DAYS/INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.27 TONNES

Feb 6/AGAIN VERY STRANGE: WITH TODAY’S TURMOIL, THE CROOKS DID NOT ADD ANY GOLD INVENTORY INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 841.35 TONNES

Feb 5  Strange,with all of today’s turmoil, the crooks at the GLD decided to add zero ounces into GLD inventory/inventory rests at 841.35 tonnes

Feb 2/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 841.35 tonnes

Feb 1/with gold up by $8.00/the crooks decided not to add any new physical gold metal into the GLD./inventory rests at 841.35 tonnes

Jan 31/with gold up $3.15 today, GLD shed another 5.32 tonnes of gold from its inventory/inventory rests at 841.35 tonnes

jan 30/with gold down by $4.85/GLD shed another 1.47 tonnes of gold from its inventory/inventory rests at 846.67 tonnes

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

MARCH 8/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 833.73 tonnes

*IN LAST 338 TRADING DAYS: 107,41 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 268 TRADING DAYS: A NET 48.89 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

March 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

March 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS: A HUGE 1.479 MILLION OZ WAS ADDED TO SILVER’S INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

March 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ./

FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ/

feb 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ

FEB 26/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ/

FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE ADDITION OF 1.315 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ/

fEB 22.2018/WITH SILVER DOWN  1 CENT TODAY, WE HAD NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.271 MILLION OZ/

FEB 21/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INVENTORY ADDITION OF 1.226 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.271 MILLION OZ/

Feb 20/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ

Feb 16/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

Feb 15/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

Feb 14./NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY DESPITE THE HUGE RISE IN PRICE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ

Feb 13./NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

Feb 12/AGAIN, WITH TODAY’S HUGE RISE IN SILVER PRICE, IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

Feb 9/AGAIN WITH TURMOIL ON THE MARKETS, STRANGELY IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

Feb 8/DESPITE THE TURMOIL TODAY AND A PRICE RISE: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

FEB 7/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 314.045 million oz/

Feb 6/WITH ALL OF TODAY’S TURMOIL/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

Feb 5/ we had HUGE change in silver inventory at the SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 1.131 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/Inventory rests at 314.045 million oz/

Feb 2/we lost 982,000 oz from the SLV inventory /inventory rests at 312.914 million oz/

Feb 1/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 313.896 million oz/

Jan 31/ no change in inventory at the slv in total contrast to gold/inventory rests at 313.896 million oz/

Jan 30/no change in inventory/SLV inventory rests at 313.896 million oz/

MARCH 8/2018: NO CHANGES TO SILVER INVENTORY/

Inventory 318.069 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO 2.00/ and libor 6 month duration 2.24

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.00%

libor 2.24 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .24%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.37%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.52

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.15

GOLD LENDING RATES FALLING TO APPROACH ZERO AS PHYSICAL GOLD IS SCARCE/GOFO  RATES RISING

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for WEDNESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

London Property Sees Brave Bet By Norway As Foxtons Profits Plunge

London Property Sees Brave Bet By Norway As Foxtons Profits Plunge

– Sales in London property market at ‘historic lows’
– 65% fall in pre-tax profits in 2017 to £6.5m reported by London estate agents Foxtons
– Foxtons warns 2018 will ‘remain challenging’ for London property
– Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is backing London’s property market
– RICS: UK property stock hits record low as buyer demand falls
– Own physical gold to hedge falls in physical property

The world’s biggest sovereign state fund is backing the London property market. The news comes at a time when the UK capital’s real estate market is reportedly at ‘historic lows’ with conditions expected to remain challenging.

There is a risk that Norway’s investment decision will end up being famous example of buyer’s remorse. Activity in both the London and UK housing market continues to slow, new buyer enquiries are at an 11-month consecutive low and agreed sales are down for the sixth month.

There appears to be little sign of recovery given Brexit-jitters and the resulting damage from years of rampant inflation that has pushed prices out of the reach of many.

Norway is possibly out on its own when it comes to confidence in the London property market. Foxton’s and the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) are indicating that not only has the last year been tough but that it is set to continue into 2018.

This makes for a tough situation for those who have little option to be involved in the UK property market or not. Many don’t realise that even if they do not own a property, they are still exposed to the risks involved in a housing crash. A downturn or total collapse of the property market would not just affect homeowners and mortgage providers. It would send major waves through the rest of the economy.

London property agent Foxton’s sees ‘historic lows’ 

Foxton’s profits for 2017 took a 65% hit thanks to a slowdown in the real estate market. Whilst they say that this was in line with expectations, few can have expected it to be this tough and to continue into 2018.

The fall in profits has been blamed on Brexit uncertainty and stamp duty changes. These factors along with highly inflated prices have have driven sales in the capital to near record lows. Overall it is political uncertainty which currently appears to be preventing anyone from making any new moves on the housing ladder.

A new survey of estate agents has shown that in London we are seeing the chronic housing shortage most concentrated. Rics’s monthly residential market survey found that the average number of properties on estate agents’ books has hit a record low and is “unlikely to improve”. In the good times estate agents will have around 42 properties on its books, London branches are now reported to have just 33.

Property website Rightmove says London property owners need to be aware that the capital has moved out of its boom phase. Sellers must be more realistic about the prices they are likely to sell for given they have fallen for the sixth month in a row. In the fourth quarter of 2017 London property prices fell by a sharp 4.3%. This was the worst quarterly performance since the financial crisis.

The boom time was always going to come to an end. The surge in London property was thanks to easy monetary policy by the Bank of England and debt-fuelled spending from across the world. Neither were sustainable sources of income for the capital’s property market.

The problem with London is that the boom has ended prematurely thanks to Brexit. Whilst many could predict the end of a boom created by tightening of lending, increased interest rates and unaffordable housing stock, no one knows how the likes of Brexit and a tricky political climate will really affect things.

For most this is makes for an uncomfortable environment. Many are holding off from making expensive mistakes whilst major companies are getting out whilst they can. One notable exception is the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund.

Norway backs London property but is anyone else?

Unlisted real estate makes up 2.6% of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund. Within this London property accounts for over 22%, followed by New York and Paris.

In contrast to many companies’ opinions on London, the fund’s Chief Executive Officer told a press conference that they would continue to be bullish about the London market for the foreseeable future. This positivity will remain “regardless of what the outcome of the political discussion will be” over Brexit.

Not everyone is feeling the love for London. The sovereign fund’s commitment comes at a time when major players in the City are making plans to clear some space in the capital. London, they believe, may no longer be able to hold its own as a financial hub.

Earlier this year both Deutsche Bank AG and Credit Suisse announced plans to move some positions out of London to Frankfurt. Credit Suisse’s Urs Rohner has warned that banks have just a matter of weeks to act on any Brexit contingency plans once the final package has been announced.

Use gold to hedge the London property market

Figuring out how to effectively hedge property investments can be difficult. Luckily physical gold comes into its own. Thanks to its relationship with increasingly correlated interest rates and economic cycles, it may likely act as a good hedge in a downturn or indeed in a full blown London property crash.

As stated at the beginning exposure to a potential property crisis does not just come about if you own or rent a property. All investors, savers and consumers are exposed, as we all have dependencies on the UK banking, financial and economic systems. All of which would be vulnerable in a property crash.

You can take some heart from the fact that the crash will not happen overnight. Investors and savers have time to get their affairs in order. They have time to diversify and decide on a reasonable allocation to gold bullion. When choosing to invest in bullion choose to own physical gold coins and bars held in allocated and segregated storage in safer, less debt laden jurisdictions.

Related reading

Brexit Risks Increase – London Property Market and Pound Vulnerable

London Property Market Tumbles As Glut of Luxury Apartments Grows To 3,000

London Property Crash Looms As Prices Drop To 2 1/2 Year Low

News and Commentary

Gold settles lower, extends loss after Fed Beige Book (MarketWatch.com)

Gold slips after hitting 1-week high on trade war fears (Reuters.com)

U.S. job market remains tight, inflation seen as moderate: Fed (Reuters.com)

U.S. Stocks End Mixed as Trade War Concerns Ease (Bloomberg.com)

Companies in U.S. Add More Jobs Than Expected, ADP Data Show (Bloomberg.com)


SOURCE: Sharelynx

World’s Oldest Central Bank Has Hit a Dangerous Inflation Wall (Bloomberg.com)

Silver Institute: U.S. investment in silver expected to return in 2018 (CoinWorld.com)

It’s time to buy silver (and sell gold) (MoneyWeek.com)

Trump tariffs risk more than just a new trade war (Reuters.com)

Trade options for UK financial services after Brexit (Reuters.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

08 Mar: USD 1,325.40, GBP 955.08 & EUR 1,070.39 per ounce
07 Mar: USD 1,332.50, GBP 960.07 & EUR 1,071.86 per ounce
06 Mar: USD 1,324.95, GBP 957.01 & EUR 1,074.00 per ounce
05 Mar: USD 1,326.30, GBP 958.78 & EUR 1,075.63 per ounce
02 Mar: USD 1,316.75, GBP 955.70 & EUR 1,071.04 per ounce
01 Mar: USD 1,311.25, GBP 953.80 & EUR 1,075.75 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

08 Mar: USD 16.48, GBP 11.89 & EUR 13.31 per ounce
07 Mar: USD 16.65, GBP 12.01 & EUR 13.42 per ounce
06 Mar: USD 16.62, GBP 11.96 & EUR 13.41 per ounce
05 Mar: USD 16.51, GBP 11.95 & EUR 13.42 per ounce
02 Mar: USD 16.45, GBP 11.92 & EUR 13.36 per ounce
01 Mar: USD 16.32, GBP 11.87 & EUR 13.39 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Gold Does Not Fear Interest Rate Hikes
– RaboDirect Closing – Gold May Protect From Irish Banks Going “Belly Up Again” – Finuncane
– Silver bullion will likely outperform gold bullion going forward
– Gold $10,000? Goldnomics Podcast Quotations and Transcript
– Trump Risks Trade and Currency Wars – Protectionism and Economic War Loom
– Four Key Themes To Drive Gold Prices In 2018 – World Gold Council
– Is The Gold Price Going To $10,000? (Goldnomics Podcast 3)
– Gold Corridor From Dubai to China Sought By China
– Digital Gold Provide the Benefits Of Physical Gold?
– Weekly Briefing: Currency Wars – ECB Warns Re Trump, Russia and Turkey Buy Gold and BOE Bitcoin Warning
– Russian Central Bank Buys Gold – 600,000 Ounces Or 18.7 Tons In January As Venezuela Launches ‘Petro Gold’
– Bitcoin or British Pound ‘Pretty Much Failed’ As Currency?
– Bank Bail-In Risk In European Countries Seen In 5 Key Charts

janskoyles

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

Andrew Maguire

2:57 PM (1 hour ago)
to me

Harvey

Here It is my friend!  https://kinesis.money/#/ Please let everyone know.

Let catch up on Monday if you have time. We have billions in the hopper ready to be allocated on the 1st day of trading. The paper market days are over.

Warm regards

Andy

end.

THE FOLLOWING CAME FROM KOOS JANSEN:

YOU WILL NOTE THAT FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER CHINA EXPORTED GOLD TO LONDON.

THE QUESTION IS WHY?

I ASKED MY GOOD FRIEND  REG HOWE FOR HIS THOUGHTS ON THIS AND WE AGREE THAT THERE ARE TWO POSSIBILITIES:  1) THAT THERE IS EXTREME SHORTAGE IN LONDON AND A MAJOR BANK COULD NOT DELIVER UPON ALONG OVER THERE..  CHINA WOULD BE ASKING FOR A BIG QUID PRO QUO FOR PROVIDING THE NECESSARY PHYSICAL.  (IT MAKES SENSE IN THE FACT THAT GOLD IS IN BACKWARDATION IN LONDON)

2. TO HELP IN THE FACILITATION OF THE NEW OIL FOR YUAN FOR GOLD NEW FORMAT OR SOME FUTURE MEASURE THAT CHINA WILL REQUIRE OR AT LEAST BENEFIT FROM ADDITION PHYSICAL LIQUIDITY IN LONODN..

REGARDLESS, IT SHOWS SCARCITY OVER THERE.

FROM REG HOWE TO ME:

“Have read speculation that it may have to do with the mechanics of settling the new oil and gold contracts in physical.  More generally, I would guess it’s one of two things: (1) Chinese help in containing some serious stress in the gold market due to lack of physical, e.g., some central bank or major bullion bank unable to deliver, in which case there is likely a big quid pro quo; or (2) a positioning to facilitate some (other) future measure by China that will require or at least benefit from additional physical liquidity in London. In any event, seems to be more evidence of severe shortage of physical in London, otherwise they would just buy it there at today’s suppressed prices.”

END

Five banks open up a trillion dollar gold club in London as they are concerned with the perception of manipulation and rigging

(courtesy Hobson/ Reuters)

Reuters exclusive: Five banks open up trillion-dollar gold club

 Section: 

By Peter Hobson
Reuters
Wednesday, March 7, 2018

LONDON — The five banks that settle every transaction in London’s $6.8 trillion (4.9 trillion pounds) a year gold market are changing the rules of their clearing house to make it easier for newcomers to join.

The reform is part of a broad overhaul of institutions that underpin the world’s largest bullion trading centre to make them more transparent after accusations of price manipulation by banks and traders and pressure from regulators.

As that pressure increased, the number of banks clearing gold transactions through a company they own called the London Precious Metals Clearing Limited (LPMCL) has dwindled from seven to five. They are HSBC, JPMorgan, Scotiabank, UBS, and ICBC Standard.

Several banks have attempted to join the group in recent years. ICBC Standard joined in 2016 after months of wrangling over conditions and an application from at least one other, Goldman Sachs, was declined, sources in LPMCL member banks said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-gold-clearing-lpmcl-exclusive/exclusiv…

end

Sound money returns to Wyoming as they pass a bill to end taxation on gold and silver

(courtesy Cortez/Sound Money Defense League/GATA)

Wyoming legislature passes bill to end taxation of gold and silver

 Section: 

By J.P. Cortez
Sound Money Defense League
via EIN Presswire, Washington, D.C.
Wednesday, March 7, 2018

https://www.einnews.com/pr_news/435728627/wyoming-legislature-passes-bil…

CHEYENNE, Wyoming — Following a 44-14 vote in the Wyoming House last week, the Wyoming State Senate today overwhelmingly approved a bill that helps restore constitutional, sound money in Wyoming.

Wyoming senators voted 25-5 to pass the Wyoming Legal Tender Act (House Bill 103), sending the measure introduced by Rep. Roy Edwards, R-Gillette, to Gov. Matt Mead’s desk. Sound money activists are already contacting Governor Mead urging that he sign the bill.

Backed by the Sound Money Defense League, Campaign for Liberty, and Money Metals Exchange, HB 103 is a bill that removes all state taxation from gold and silver bullion and reaffirms their legal tender status in Wyoming, in keeping with Article 1, Section 10 of the U.S. Constitution.

Testifying before the Senate Minerals, Business, and Economic Development Committee, Sound Money Defense League Policy Director J.P. Cortez made the case to Wyoming legislators that assessing taxes on purchases of gold and silver is unjust and undermines their constitutional status as money.

Representative Edwards said in support of HB 103, “Imagine going to the grocery store and asking the clerk for change for a $20 bill and being charged 80 cents in tax. That’s what we’re doing in Wyoming by charging sales taxes on precious metals and we’re taking steps to change that.”

Wyoming does not have an income tax. However, it does have a sales tax and it assesses this tax against precious metals bullion. If Governor Mead signs HB 103, Wyoming would join all its neighboring states (South Dakota, Idaho, Utah, Colorado, Nebraska) and more than 30 other states that do not assess a sales tax against precious metals.

Other states have eliminated income taxation on gold and silver (Arizona and Utah) or have established precious metals depositories to help citizens save and transact in gold and silver bullion (Texas).

Cortez’s testimony highlighted the harmful effects of inflation that flow from the Federal Reserve System and explained how erecting barriers to precious metal ownership harms those most vulnerable to currency debasement — wage earners, savers, those on a fixed income — and local business owners who lose business to out-of-state dealers that don’t subject buyers to unfair taxation.

“Governor Mead should sign the Wyoming Legal Tender Act into law without delay and help Wyoming businesses as well as all citizens harmed by inflation,” Cortez said.

The Sound Money Defense League is an Idaho-based public policy group working nationally to bring back gold and silver as America’s constitutional money. For comment or more information, call 1-208-577-2225 or email jp.cortez@soundmoneydefense.org.

end

Japanese regulators crackdown on 7 crypto exchanges and shut down two more

(courtesy zerohedge)

Japanese Regulators Crackdown On 7 Crypto Exchanges, Shut Down 2 More

Following yesterday’s extremely heavy volume (Tokyo Whale?) plunge in Bitcoin, regulators in Japan have cracked down on seven cryptocurrency exchanges (and ordered month-long suspensions for two more).

Interestingly, prices were relatively stable as the news hit (perhaps yesterday’s selling was pre-emptive?)

As CoinTelegraph reports, the Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA) has sent “punishment notices” to seven crypto exchanges and temporarily halted the activities of two more after a round of inspections prompted by January’s Coincheck hackCNBC reports Thursday, March 8.

The FSA issued business improvement orders for a lack of “the proper and required internal control systems” to seven exchanges, including Coincheck, which was specifically cited as lacking a system for preventing money laundering and the financing of terrorism.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

Exchanges Bit Station and FSHO are to be closed for one month from today, according to CNBC. The FSA reported that a senior Bit Station official used exchange customers’ Bitcoin (BTC) for personal purposes, and Bit Station has ended its application for registering as an exchange.

The hack of more than $500 mln of NEM from the Japanese Coincheck crypto exchange has been attributed to the fact that the coins were stored on a low-security hot wallet. In the aftermath of the hack, the FSA inspected Coincheck and ordered all Japanese crypto exchanges to submit reports on their risk management systems.

The FSA also announced in mid-February on-site inspections of 15 Japanese crypto exchanges, those currently awaiting registration, of their computer safety system measures.

Coincheck had promised customers to refund all stolen coins, a statement supported by the FSA, who confirmed through CNBC that Coincheck had enough funds to do so and would be releasing a reimbursement plan later today.

end

I guess the explosion of EFP’s into London is swamping our boys as the now intend to delay gold and silver price fixing auctions

(courtesy Ronan Manly)

Ronan Manly: LBMA stalls daily gold and silver price auction fix reports

 Section: 

12:02p ET Thursday, March 8, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The London Bullion Market Association, gold researcher Ronan Manly discloses today, has stopped providing timely reports of the daily gold and silver auction price fixes and has against postponed its plans to publish trade data about the monetary metals.

Manly writes: “It must be obvious to everyone that the LBMA and its bullion bank members do not want the transparency that gold and silver trade reporting would provide. Otherwise they would not have spent four years on a project that any individual investment bank could start and complete within less than three months.”

Manly’s report is headlined “LBMA Alchemy and the London Gold and Silver Markets: 2 Steps Back” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/lbma-alchemy-london-gold-m…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Butler and I are miles apart on the silver situation.  I can categorically state that JPMorgan has accumulated a massive amount of silver.  I think it is somewhere north of 600 million oz.  Butler believes it is 700 million.  We differ in the fact that I believe JPMorgan is holding it for China on behalf of the USA government.  The USA government needed silver  as they ran out in 2002 and called upon China to supply silver and keep the suppression game alive.  China obliged because they picked up huge amounts of gold at suppressed prices.

Other than that, we are identical..

(courtesy Butler)

JPMorgan’s Motivation

Theodore Butler | March 8, 2018

To be sure, there are many who reject, out of hand, my allegation that JPMorgan has accumulated a massive amount of physical silver over the past seven years, amounting to 700 million ounces or more. That’s completely understandable, since I can’t document and point out all 700 million oz and few have taken the time to review the basis of my claim. It doesn’t matter that I first picked up on JPMorgan’s quest to acquire physical silver four years ago, by which time it had already accumulated 300 million oz and have been monitoring and reporting on it ever since – if I can’t show every ounce belonging to JPM, some will remain skeptical.

Heck, there are still some who doubt that the 135 million oz of silver that JPMorgan has moved into its own COMEX warehouse since 2011 belong to the bank, despite most of the silver being brought in as a result of JPMorgan taking delivery of that metal in its own name in futures contract deliveries. In this case, even seeing is still disbelieving. And please remember, it is in JPMorgan’s best interest that its physical metal ownership remain largely unknown, so the bank can’t be expected to confirm its holdings.

The highly visible 135 million oz of silver that JPMorgan holds in its own COMEX warehouse is more silver than ever owned by any private entity in history, eclipsing the amounts held by the Hunt Bros in 1980 or Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway in 1998. To those who wonder how JPMorgan could buy the most silver ever without driving prices higher (as was the case with the Hunt Bros and Buffett), look no further than the fact that JPMorgan was also the largest paper short seller in COMEX silver futures over the entire seven years of its physical accumulation.

Yes, I still believe Buffett came to sell short paper COMEX silver contracts after he acquired physical silver (that’s how he came to lose his metal in 2006); the big difference with JPMorgan is that the bank was the biggest paper short seller on the COMEX both before and during its epic accumulation of physical silver. Not only does this answer the question of why prices didn’t rise despite JPMorgan buying so much actual silver over the past seven years, it also presents the clearest evidence of commodity market price manipulation, a matter I will avoid today, even though it remains the overarching issue.

The issue today is the motivation behind JPMorgan’s epic accumulation of actual metal. To those who will remain unconvinced of the physical accumulation, this will matter little; but among those who accept that JPMorgan owns anywhere from 135 million to more than 700 million oz of silver (in the form of industry standard 1000 oz bars), I’ve detected differences of opinion as to JPM’s motivation for the accumulation.

My opinion, as I’ve consistently maintained, is that JPMorgan first began acquiring physical silver as the one surefire solution of covering its massive paper short position without driving prices sharply higher. Then, after acquiring enough physical metal to neutralize its dominant paper short position early on (by 2012), JPMorgan continued to accumulate hundreds of millions of physical ounces of metal with the sole intent of someday selling that silver at as high a price as possible.

Just to be clear, I don’t think JPMorgan envisioned in 2011 that it would amass the largest stockpile of silver in history at artificial low prices; no one could be that prescient. But JPM’s decision to buy physical metal as the solution to covering its otherwise impossible to cover massive paper short position was nothing less than a stroke of manipulative genius. And JPMorgan was smart enough to realize that once it had effectively covered its paper short position, any additional physical ounces acquired could be sold at a great profit someday.

But even among those who accept that JPMorgan has amassed epic amounts of physical metal, not all agree with my take on the motivation behind the accumulation. Many feel that the main motivation for JPMorgan accumulating physical silver is not to profit by someday by selling at a very high price, but instead to use the physical metal to prolong and extend the manipulation for as long as possible. Invariably, those feeling this way also sense this is related to JPMorgan acting on behalf of the US Government for various reasons, ranging from the US insuring it has adequate supplies of this vital material to keeping the price contained so as not to set off a price disruption in gold and broader financial markets.

I think I do understand why many feel this way and it revolves around the natural fatigue that sets in after years of truly rotten price performance and the very natural tendency to extrapolate current price levels into the future. And just to be objective, let me admit that any single entity holding a large physical position could be considered potentially bearish, since the possibility of sale clearly exists. But the same could be said of the massive physical accumulations of gold by Russia, China, India and elsewhere, where the possibility of sale also exists. But let me deal with the most popular alternative version that has been advanced for the silver manipulation continuing, namely, it is orchestrated by the US Government.

My immediate reaction to JPMorgan running the silver market as a front for the USG is who exactly in the government is running the show? Certainly not anyone I’ve observed over the past half-century of my adult life. And presently, the USG is more dysfunctional than any time in memory (if not in the history of the republic). But my list of reasons for seriously doubting the US Government is behind the manipulation doesn’t stop there. We did run up in silver to $50 fairly quickly in 2011 and I don’t recall any financial market upheaval or even much reaction in gold which rose around $100 (less than 10%) as silver climbed 250%. If silver’s price rise didn’t affect other markets back then, why would it in the future?

As far as the US Government using JPMorgan to build up a strategic stockpile of silver for the future collective good of the country, the same government spent 50 years, from 1950 to 2000, disposing of our existing national stockpile of silver and removing it from strategic status, thanks to the underhanded efforts of the Silver Users Association. Suddenly and with absolutely no public notice, the US Government secretly began stockpiling silver? Such an initiative would have had to have started in the Obama administration and have been fully embraced and continued by the Trump administration. I don’t think so.

It is unrealistic, in my opinion, to believe that the US Government would single out silver as the one commodity it should be stockpiling without any apparent reason or evidence it was doing so. That’s the problem with conspiracy theories – once you go down that path, it never ends and you have to suspend rational thinking to explain everything. As I said, I understand the need to rationalize the rotten price behavior of silver over the past 7 years. Further, I have gone on record stating that the USG did make a secret agreement with JPM on the occasion of its takeover of Bear Stearns, but if the USG has been calling the shots in silver over the past 7 years then I’ll go out and buy a hat and eat it.

As far as JPMorgan accumulating 700 million oz of physical silver for the purpose of continuing the manipulation indefinitely, I can’t see why. For one thing, JPMorgan certainly hasn’t had any need for physical silver to this point to continue the manipulation; it has been doing just fine in capping prices with paper short sales alone. There has been no big physical silver buying from anyone other than JPMorgan, so one has to accept the notion that JPMorgan is prepared to sacrifice and sell at a loss or little profit the 700 million oz it holds. Does that sound like JPMorgan to you? I see a giant financial institution on the constant move, like a great white shark, seeking to maximize profits in any manner possible, from (over) charging folks on checking accounts and credit cards and mortgages to playing every nook and cranny of our capital markets in order to make a buck. Suddenly, JPM is going to forgo and pass up making a giant profit on its accumulated silver so that the price will never go up? Again, I don’t think so.

JPMorgan’s prime reason for existence, just like any for-profit organization is to make profits and that automatically becomes the default motivation behind its massive accumulation of physical silver over the past 7 years. In fact, because JPMorgan has been able to accumulate silver to this day and is not in the slightest conceivable way unable to continue that accumulation because it is running out of buying power, this is also the prime reason why the silver manipulation has lasted for so long. The price of silver will explode when JPMorgan decides it will explode and that won’t come until there is not enough physical silver for it to buy. I admit the timetable has lasted much longer than I (or you) would have preferred, but so what? Who has always gotten whatever he wanted when he wanted it? Not me.

But it’s not just that the profit motive is most likely behind JPMorgan’s massive physical accumulation of silver, it’s much more than that. JPM’s accumulation provides the one critical ingredient missing over the past 33 years in which I have studied silver closely. The accumulation creates something heretofore always lacking for a great run up – that someone very large was in position to profit immensely on an explosion in the price of silver. Warren Buffett wasn’t interested in a silver price explosion because he had sold short an amount equivalent to Berkshire’s physical holdings in COMEX futures contracts and was largely fully-hedged. As such, he wouldn’t have benefited from a silver price explosion.

JPMorgan’s physical position is far larger than its paper COMEX short position and, therefore, it is the first big entity fully prepared for a dramatic liftoff in price. I’m not kidding when I say that JPMorgan’s massive physical position is the single most bullish factor I’ve run across in silver in all my studies over the past three decades.

Ted Butler
March 8, 2018


 _____________________________________________________________________________________

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

 

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN 6.3385  /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 16.74 POINTS OR 0.51%  / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 457.60 POINTS OR 1.52%
2. Nikkei closed UP 115.35 POINTS OR 0.54% /USA: YEN FALLS TO 106.11/  DEADLY AS YEN CARRY TRADERS DISINTEGRATE

3. Europe stocks OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN     /USA dollar index RISES TO 89.81/Euro FALLS TO 1.2384

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO . +.054/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.11/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 60.98  and Brent: 64.04

3f Gold UP/Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.674%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.038% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.435%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.187?????????????????

3k Gold at $1324.05 silver at:16.46     7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 15/100 in roubles/dollar) 56.99

3m oil into the 60 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.11 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9457 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1710 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.653%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.878% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 3.158% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Global Stocks, Futures Rise Ahead Of ECB As Trade War Tensions Ease

As trade war fears ease (again) following news late on Wednesday that the White House would consider tariff “carve outs” for Canada and Mexico, markets are modestly higher ahead of a fresh monetary policy catalyst from the ECB this morning. Mario Draghi will be the center of attention today as investors wait to see whether there will be any moves toward an exit from stimulus measures amid the threat of a potential trade war. That said, the ECB is unlikely to make major changes to guidance at today’s meeting as inflation remains far below a target of just under 2%, even with stronger economic growth.

Meanwhile, European stocks drift higher, led by technology shares following strong gains in Asia. Nasdaq futures climb steadily toward session highs, mirroring those gains, while the S&P has also found a bid in recent bid.

The European cash open mimicked the lead seen on Wall St. and overnight in Asia, with major bourses recouping prior losses (Eurostoxx 50 +0.2%) with the exception of the DAX 30 (-0.2%) which sees Merck (-3.0%) at the bottom of the index after the release of its earnings this morning. Material and Energy names are the session laggards, with BHP Billiton (-3.9%), Anglo American (-2.0%) underperforming in the FTSE and Arcelormittal (-1.0%) in the CAC. Elsewhere, the Telecom sector (+1.0%) outperformance has been supported by phone operators Vodafone (+1.3%), Orange (+0.54%) and DT Telekom (+0.7%).

The strong European open followed another green session out of Asia, with Australia’s ASX 200 (+0.7%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) higher with sentiment also underpinned by economic releases including encouraging trade figures in Australia and stronger than expected Japanese Final Q4 GDP. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.5%) outperformed and Shanghai Comp. (+0.7%) initially lagged after the PBoC refrained from liquidity operations, before better than expected Chinese trade data provided some inspiration.

Bunds retrace some of yesterday’s advance as underperformance in the belly of the curve leads to bear flattening in the 5s30s; Italy outperforms with the rest of the periphery amid speculation of a coalition between euroskeptic and center-left parties.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rallies, pressuring EUR/USD below 1.2400 and pulling CAD, MXN back from overnight highs. WTI crude holds above $61/barrel amid bullish demand outlooks from Exxon Mobil and Goldman Sachs.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,729.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 374.01
  • MXAP up 0.7% to 175.10
  • MXAPJ up 0.9% to 576.15
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 21,368.07
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,709.95
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.5% to 30,654.52
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,288.41
  • Sensex up 1.2% to 33,433.90
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 5,942.87
  • Kospi up 1.3% to 2,433.08
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.0 bps to 0.665%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.2388
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 4.2 bps to 1.687%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 1.445%
  • Brent futures little changed at $64.30/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,325.63
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 89.74

Top Overnight News

  • The ECB’s new forecasts will show growth and inflation similar to the picture of solid economic momentum seen three months ago, according to euro-area officials familiar with the matter
  • The EU’s top financial-services official has told member states and lawmakers to get on with plans to hand the bloc’s main markets regulator new powers over investment funds and derivatives clearinghouses
  • China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi vowed a “justified and necessary response” to any efforts to incite a trade war, in the country’s most forceful response yet to Trump’s threatened tariff actions
  • Purchases of foreign bonds by Japanese banks’ trust accounts, often seen as a proxy for the nation’s pension funds, reached a record 841.7 billion yen in February
  • China Feb. exports rise 44.5% y/y in dollar terms, est. 11.0%; gain 36.2% y/y in yuan terms, est. 7.4%
  • Japan revised 4Q GDP rises annualized 1.6% q/q; est. +1%

Asian stocks recouped some of the prior day’s losses with gains across the region after trade protectionism concerns somewhat eased and amid a continued friendlier tone from North Korea, with the nation said to offer a conditional halt to its ICBM program. ASX 200 (+0.7%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) were higher with sentiment also underpinned by economic releases including encouraging trade figures in Australia and stronger than expected Japanese Final Q4 GDP. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.5%) outperformed and Shanghai Comp. (+0.7%) initially lagged after the PBoC refrained from liquidity operations, before better than expected Chinese trade data provided some inspiration. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued as demand lacked amid the improved risk appetite and following an uneventful enhanced-liquidity auction, while the BoJ also began their latest 2-day policy meeting which is not expected to provide any fireworks

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong Seen Draining Liquidity as Currency Drops to 1984 Low; Hong Kong Stocks Rise as Volatility Builds in Topsy-Turvy Week
  • Coincheck to Start Paying Back Victims of $500 Million Heist
  • BNP Paribas Expects Noble Group to Skip March 9 Coupon Payment
  • L Catterton-Backed Brand GXG Is Said to Plan $300 Million IPO

As trade war fears are easing, the European cash open mimicked the lead seen on Wall St. and overnight in Asia, with major bourses recouping prior losses (Eurostoxx 50 +0.2%) with the exception of the DAX 30 (-0.2%) which sees Merck (-3.0%) at the bottom of the index after the release of its earnings this morning. Material and Energy names are the session laggards, with BHP Billiton (-3.9%), Anglo American (-2.0%) underperforming in the FTSE and Arcelormittal (-1.0%) in the CAC. Elsewhere, the Telecom sector (+1.0%) outperformance has been supported by phone operators Vodafone (+1.3%), Orange (+0.54%) and DT Telekom (+0.7%). So far, newsflow has been on the lighter side as participants await the ECB decision, in which there is rising speculation that the central bank could drop its QE easing bias.

Top European News

  • German Factory Orders Drop After Demand Surged at End of 2017
  • ECB Outlook Is Said to See Solid Growth Similar to December View
  • Aviva Falls After Claims Surge Hits Profit at Canadian Unit
  • John Lewis Warns of Further Profit Squeeze After a Tough Year
  • Adidas Leads DAX Gains; Discount to Peers Unwarranted, BofA Says

In FX, the DXY is mildly firmer within a relative narrow 89.770-545 band, as the Greenback ekes out relatively small gains vs all its  G10 rivals on more reports that Canada, Mexico and possibly other nations may be given exemptions from US import tariffs that are  expected to be officially signed off later today or on Friday. This has calmed global trade war fears to an extent, while North Korea  continues its charm initiative on the nuclear front by offering a conditional ICBM suspension. However, the impending ECB meeting provides potential more currency market activity with expectations very split on whether the QE easing bias will dropped or not.  Eur/Usd currently towards the lower end of a tight range around the 1.2400 level amidst reports that new ECB Staff forecasts will be  largely the same as in December, but latest forward guidance and the tone of President Draghi’s press conference/Q&A are key along with the aforementioned pledge to increase and/or extend asset buying if needed. Options break-even pricing assigns a circa +/- 67 pip move on the eventuality as a benchmark. Elsewhere, Usd/Jpy also remains largely anchored around a big figure – 106.00 where a hefty expiry runs off (1.1 bn), and now awaiting the BoJ for more independent impetus. The Aud and Nzd continue to underperform around 0.7800 and 0.7250 vs the Usd as the partial Dollar revival weighs on commodity prices, and the Aud fails to derive any sustained benefit from a big trade data beat overnight. Elsewhere, some Nok weakness vs the Eur after Stats Norway trimmed its 2018 inflation and growth forecasts (cross nudging towards 9.7300) and Usd/Hkd is close to the top of its peg tolerance ceiling with the HKMA indicating that 7.8500 is the line in the sand (vs 7.8300 at present). USD/TRY also firmer this morning, after Moody’s downgraded Turkey’s sovereign rating deeper into junk territory with the outlook negative.

In commodities, oil prices hovering around yesterday’s lows with WTI back at USD 61/bbl (-0.1%), while Brent is around the low  USD 60s (-0.2%) amid the slight firming of the USD index. Price action has been quiet, with crude futures trading within a tight  range thus far. In terms of newsflow, Platts reported that Libya could restart their 90k bpd Elephant field after reaching a deal with  guards. China Feb. iron ore imports 84.66mln tons vs. Prev. 100.3mln tons M/M, while crude oil imports 32.26mln tons vs. Prev.  40.6mln tons M/M. Saudi Energy Minister Al-Falih says energy demand is growing at a rate not seen for decades. Libya could restart  90k bpd Elephant field after reaching a deal with guards. Of note, The field was shut down on Feb. 23rd due to protests by local  guards over environmental concerns

US Event Calendar

  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior -2.8%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,000, prior 210,000
  • 8:30am: Continuing Claims, est. 1.92m, prior 1.93m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 56.2
  • 12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, prior $1.74t

end

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 16.74 POINTS OR 0.51% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 457.60 POINTS OR 1.52% / The Nikkei closed UP 115.35 POINTS OR 0.54%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.69%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.3385/Oil DOWN to 60.98 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.03 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX  .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.3385 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3388 /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR . CHINA IS NOT VERY  HAPPY TODAY (STRONGER CURRENCY GOOD CHINESE MARKETS/BUT TRUMP TARIFFS TO BE INITIATED/ ) 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

/NORTH KOREA

end
 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

c) REPORT ON CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

A nightmare scenario for the Euro:  Berlusconi backs Northern League to a form a coalition.  Berlusconi’s centre right garnered 14% and northern league got 17%.  Together with the 5 star at 31%, they can form a government.

(courtesy zerohedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

 end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.2384 DOWN .0028/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL IN THE GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX  

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.11 DOWN  0.068 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/DEADLY UNWINDING OF YEN CARRY TRADE

GBP/USA 1.3871 DOWN .0033  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS/MAY IN TROUBLE WITH HER OWN PARTY/

USA/CAN 1.2931 UP .0027 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 28 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.2384; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 16.74  OR 0.51% /   Hang Sang CLOSED UP 457.60 POINTS OR 1.52%  /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.69% / EUROPEAN BOURSES   IN THE GREEN EXCEPT DAX 

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED UP 115/35 POINTS OR 0.54%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks OPENED ALL IN THE GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 457.60 POINTS OR 1.52%  / SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.74 OR 0.51%   /

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.69% /

Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED UP 115.38 POINTS OR 0.54%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN 

Gold very early morning trading: 1325.25

silver:$16.48

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.879% !!! DOWN 0  IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/ 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.158 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 89.81 UP 17  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.823% DOWN 4  in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.0.054% up 2/5    in basis points yield from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.408% DOWN 4  IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.985 UP 3 POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 57 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +.628%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2307 DOWN .0105 (Euro DOWN 105 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 106.07 DOWN 0.104 Yen UP 10 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3816 DOWN .0088( POUND DOWN 88 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2946 UP  .0041 Canadian dollar DOWN 41 Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $60.26

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This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN 105 to trade at 1.2307

The Yen ROSE to 106.07 for a GAIN of 10 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND FELL BY 88 basis points, trading at 1.3816/

The Canadian dollar FELL by 41 basis points to 1.2946/ WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO : $60.26

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.3422
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.054%  UP 2/5 BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.8480% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.115  DOWN 2    in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 90.09 UP 46 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED UP 35.92 POINTS OR 1.06%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 45.40 POINTS OR 0.63%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 110.21 POINTS OR 0.90%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 66.27 POINTS OR 1.28%

Italian MIB: CLOSED  UP 257.63 POINTS OR 1.15%

The Dow closed UP 92.85 POINTS OR 0.38%

NASDAQ WAS up 31.30 Points OR 0.42% 4.00 PM EST (short squeeze)

WTI Oil price; 60.26 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 63.77 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 57.08 DOWN 46/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 46 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO +.628% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$60.31

BRENT: $63.84

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.855%   THIS RAPID ASSENT IN YIELD IS VERY DANGEROUS/DERIVATIVES START TO BLOW UP/ 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.1218%/BROKE GUNDLACH’S KEY 3.00% AGAIN WHERE ALL VALUATIONS ON STOCKS BLOW UP/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.2313 DOWN .0099  (DOWN 99 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.19 UP 0.02/ YEN DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS/ very dangerous as yen carry traders are getting killed/yen continues to rise despite the NYSE rising.

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 90.13 UP 49 cent(s)/dangerous as the lower the dollar the higher the inflation.

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3810: DOWN 0.0095  (FROM LAST NIGHT DOWN 95 POINTS)

Canadian dollar: 1.2904 UP 2 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.628%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  16.54  CLOSED  down   1.22

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.06%  

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Stocks Spike, Loonie Leaps As Trump Starts “Negotiable” Trade War

“Indefinite exemptions” – sounds a lot like…

“you get an exemption,  you get an exemption,  everyone gets an exemption”

Markets were spooked early on by chatter than Peter Navarro was hoping to get Cohn’s job, but that all reversed when headlines proclaimed indefinite exemptions for Canada and Mexico from Trump’s tariffs…

FANG stocks fell for the first time 5 days.

The S&P stalled at its 50DMA today…

VIX dropped to a 16 handle (because why wouldn’t you sell vol as Trump starts an incredibly uncertain trade war)…

Treasury yields were lower on the day though they rose after tariff exemption headlines hit…

FX markets were the most volatile today with the Loonie and the Peso surging after headlines proclaimed indefinite exemptions

The Dollar Index ramped back into a congested resistance area and rolled over…

Cryptos had another bad day…

With Bitcoin battered back below $10k…

Nasdaq and Bitcoin have decoupled once again…

Copper and Crude crumbled as the dollar jumped with PMs modestly lower also…

NOTE the plunge in WTI each of the last 3 days has started at the same time of day.

Finally, as a reminder, the economic data is not as rosy as you’re being told (but of course tomorrow’s payrolls print is all that really matters)…

end

Trading:

Fact Vs Fiction: GAAP Earnings Have Yet To Surpass 2013 HIghs

Fact or fiction:  GAAP earnings have yet to surpass 2013 highs

Answer: true

(courtesy zerohedge)

How easy is it to goalseek one’s analysis knowing in advance the outcome one wants? Extremely.

Take as an example bank correction and recession “checklists”. Two weeks ago we showed that as of this moment, more than two-thirds, of 68%, or 13 of 18, Bank of America “bear market” checklists had been flagged.

Meanwhile, in a just released update to its “recession dashboard” Credit Suisse does not find a single indicator that points to a recession; in fact, until recently, everything pointed up toward “Expansion” and only this week, did the Swiss bank finally make one change:

In light of the recent acceleration in wage gains, we are updating our Recession Dashboard, taking “Inflation Trends” from favorable to neutral. While not yet problematic, an overheating labor market poses the greatest threat to profit margins and could force the Fed to become more engaged. the worst it can show is that Inflation is currently flagging a “neutral” economy.

This is hardly surprising as it goes to the basis of modern finance in demonstrating how the same exact underlying data can be interpreted in two diametrically opposite ways by a pessimist and by an optimist.

And to demonstrate that again, we go the same report by Credit Suisse’s new equity strategist Jonathan Golub who also shows how vastly different corporate profits are if one looks at GAAP vs non-GAAP earnings.

As shown in the chart below, while non-GAAP, or adjusted, earnings are now at all time highs, and feed into a “modest” 20x forward PE multiple, non-GAAP earnings have yet to surpass their 2013 highs!

And while historically a GAAP vs non-GAAP spread of this magnitude has traditionally launched recessions, this time it is singled out as a sign of economic health!

And finally, in the best example of reality vs hype, here is a chart showing that the spread between intentions to raise wages and actual wages has never been greater…

JPMorgan  Co President warns that he sees a 40% correction in stocks due to higher interest rates and the inflationary pressures created by tariffs

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Markets Are Nervous”: JP Morgan Co-President Sees 40% Correction In Stocks

In what sounds more like yet another warning to President Trump than an actual market call, Daniel Pinto, the head of JP Morgan Chase & Co.’s colossal investment bank (which houses its M&A and trading operations) warned that equity markets coulddecline by as much as 40% over the next 2-3 years – though he believes the present cycle has at least another year left to run.

Pinto said markets are “nervous” – not just about trade, but also by the prospect of higher interest rates globally (they might receive more inadvertent insight today if the ECB’s Mario Draghi pulls a Jerome Powell and sends markets reeling with a hawkish misstep).

The prospect that President Trump could start a trade war also has investors on edge – and they could dump stocks if the tariffs end up being larger than the market expects, according to Bloomberg.

A 40% drop would wipe out most of the market’s gains from the past two years.

“There is never just one trigger, it’s a combination of factors and it depends on valuation at the time. The market probably has some way to go probably for the next year or two, but the correction could be 20% to 40%. And for us, we just try to be prepared because during those times, the clients really need you.”

Nonetheless, Pinto says the probability of a recession in the US in the near term is “very low” and the present cycle – in the US, at least – probably has another year before a prolonged downturn begins.

“At the moment the scenario is, the economy will continue growing globally very strongly in the US and everywhere else, the Fed and the other central banks are being very prudent with how they adjust monetary policy, and inflation is moving up but its very reasonable – so those are the things you want to watch: That inflation doesn’t go up to fast, that forces the Fed and central banks to raise faster…you want to look at geopolitical issues that are playing out…and you want to look at geopolitical issues.”

Circling back to today’s ECB meeting, Pinto says that, considering the outcome of last weekend’s vote in Italy, the ECB will probably do its best to make Thursday’s announcement an “uneventful” one as it waits to see whether Italian lawmakers can successfully form a government.

Pinto was promoted to co-president under chief Jamie Dimon this year. The banker has advanced through the trading side of JPMorgan and has helped that business climb to the top of Wall Street.

Pinto’s near-term bullishness mirrors JP Morgan quant Marko Kolanovic, who recently doubled-down on his cheerful outlook following last month’s volocaust.

end

Trump to sign tariffs today with no curve outs/hints that Mexico and Canad may be exempt

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump To Sign Tariffs Proclamation Tomorrow, No Carve-Outs

It’s on like donkey kong.

After a day of uncertainty, The Wall Street Journal confirms that President Trump is expected to sign a new proclamation Thursday afternoon (at 330ET) outlining his plan to impose new tariffs on steel and aluminum, according to a White House official familiar with the planning.

Critically, the US equity market ramped exuberantly this afternoon after White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said Wednesday there may be “potential carveouts” for Mexico, Canada and possibly other countries.

However, WSJ reports that officials said it was unclear whether that would be addressed on Thursday; Mr. Trump may take additional action later to give national-security exemptions on a country-by-country basis.

Invitations were issued Wednesday afternoon for the Thursday event, which will include industry executives and workers. There is no sunset provision for the tariffs or review period stipulated in the proposal, the White House official said.

Divisions also remain within Mr. Trump’s cabinet.

Critics have said the tariffs, issued under the guise of national-security considerations, will damage relationships with Canadian and European allies, slow economic growth and harm American metal-consuming industries.

But President Trump seems undeterred.

And furthermore, this news comes after House Ways & Means Chair Brady managed to gather 107 House Republicans’ signatures to urge Trump to target tariffs to just “bad actors” like China.

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady (R-TX), Trade Subcommittee Chairman Dave Reichert (R-WA), and 105 additional House Republicans today reinforced the need to take action against China and other unfair trading partners while expressing concerns that broad tariffs could harm America’s jobs, manufacturers, and consumers.

Upon sending a letter to President Trump, Chairman Brady said:

“We applaud President Trump for standing up against bad actors who trade unfairly and hurt America. We’re writing today to say: we stand with you in taking tough action to keep America safe and our economy strong. At the same time, we’re urging the President to tailor these tariffs so American businesses can continue to trade fairly with our partners, sell American-made products to customers all over the world, and hire more workers here at home.”

In the letter, the lawmakers wrote:

We support your resolve to address distortions caused by China’s unfair practices,and we are committed to acting with you and our trading partners on meaningful and effective action.  But we urge you to reconsider the idea of broad tariffs to avoid unintended negative consequences to the U.S. economy and its workers.  We are eager to work with you in pursuing a workable, targeted approach that achieves our shared goal.”

Further, the lawmakers wrote:

We are writing to express deep concern about the prospect of broad, global tariffs on aluminum and steel imports.  Because tariffs are taxes that make U.S. businesses less competitive and U.S. consumers poorer, any tariffs that are imposed should be designed to address specific distortions caused by unfair trade practices in a targeted way while minimizing negative consequences on American businesses and consumers.

“We were privileged to partner closely with you and your administration to develop and pass the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.  Your leadership on these tax cuts, in combination with your regulatory reforms, have done so much to increase the competitiveness of U.S. companies and restore the United States’ position as the best place in the world to do business.  We are convinced that the benefits of these tax cuts are only beginning, and we look forward to building on this great success as the benefits continue to spread to U.S. workers and job creators.  But adding new taxes in the form of broad tariffs would undermine this remarkable progress.”

The lawmakers outlined several recommendations to hold countries accountable without disrupting the flow of fairly traded products that American manufacturers rely on:

First, any relief should be narrow, excluding all fairly traded products and all products that do not pose a national security threat.  Second, a robust exclusion process should be announced at the outset that allows U.S. companies to petition for and promptly obtain duty-free access for imports that are unavailable from U.S. sources or otherwise present extenuating circumstances.  Third, existing contracts to purchase aluminum or steel should be grandfathered to allow duty-free imports and avoid disrupting the operation and finances of projects that are already budgeted and underway.  Fourth, the effects of this remedy on our economy should be reviewed and reconsidered on a short-term basis to determine if a different approach would better serve the interests of our American workers, job creators, and consumers.”

CLICK HERE to read the full letter.

*  *  *
Finaly, we remind readers what Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said this morning on CNBC.

“We’re not trying to blow up the world. There’s no intention of that.”

We’ll see!

end

Canada and Mexico are exempted indefinitely from tariffs and that causes the collar and the peso to soar

(courtesy zerohedge)

Canada, Mexico To Be “Exempted Indefinitely” From Tariffs; Peso, Loonie Soar

With just minutes to go until Trump’s 3:30 pm press conference, the big leaks have started hitting the tape, and according to the AP, while the Trump tariffs will take effect in 15 days, more importantly Canada and Mexico will be “exempted indefinitely.”

  • TRUMP METAL TARIFFS ARE SAID TO TAKE EFFECT IN 15 DAYS: AP
  • MEXICO, CANADA EXEMPTED INDEFINITELY FROM TARIFFS, AP REPORTS

Of course, the market’s attention is drawn much closer to the latest flip-flopping by the admin which as recently as a few hours ago had decided against exemptions, only to change its mind again in the last minute.

And while the decision to exempt Mexico and Canada may be strategic, perhaps meant to streamline Nafta negotiations, the reality is that it will thoroughly water down the impact of Trump’s tariffs in the first place, because as Harbor Intelligence wrote overnight, if Trump exempts Canada from proposed aluminum tariffs, “it would impair the ability of U.S. smelters to restart capacity and defeat the purpose of the import duties.”

As Harbor managing director Jorge Vazquez adds, “excluding the biggest aluminum shipper into the U.S. from the tariffs could also encourage other U.S. allies to ask for exemptions, thereby driving down the cost of delivering metal to the Midwest and making imported metal more affordable for users.

Ultimately, if exemptions are limited to Canada it could mean a windfall of as much as $300 million for Canadian producers given the Midwest premium would still reflect the tariff, Vazquez said adding that “This shows that the entire section 232 is a mistake.”

He is right, after all last month, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the aim of his duty recommendations to the president was to boost domestic aluminum capacity utilization to 80 percent. If Canada is exempt it would achieve none of that stated goal.

Meanwhile, on the steel side, the exemptions will mean that the #1 and #4 suppliers of steel to the US will not only be allowed to sneak through, but grab market share from the remaining nations.

Whatever the thinking behind the last minute change, both the loonie and the peso love it, and have soared near session highs in kneejerk response.

And of course, stocks are kneejerking higher, seemingly not caring that the tariffs will remain for China and thus our biggest trading partner?

END

And now the full details.  Canada and Mexico are off the table for now due to continuing talks on NAFTA.  If Canada and Mexico become long term exemptions then Trump will raise the tariffs on the foreign suppliers.  Countries can negotiate to remove those tariffs if the uSA gets a favourable deal. It does beg the question as to why Cohn resigned.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Here Are The Full Details Of The “Negotiable” Tariffs Trump Will Enact

While much of what Trump is announcing today has already been leaked, here are the details of the import tariffs Donald Trump formally adopted on steel and aluminium imports which allow US allies to negotiate and apply for exemptions, a sign of the growing concern that the president was alienating America’s closest international partners, and that 2 of the 4 largest foreign suppliers of steel will be exempt.

The tariffs will come into force within 15 days and are expected to draw retaliation from the EU and other steel producers and heighten fears of a descent into a trade war.

Here are the highlights from Reuters:

  • TRUMP TO ANNOUNCE ON THURSDAY IMPORT TARIFFS OF 25 PCT ON STEEL, 10 PCT ON ALUMINUM STARTING IN 15 DAYS -SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL
  • U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS CANADA AND MEXICO TO BE EXEMPTED FROM TARIFFS FOR UNDETERMINED PERIOD; CONTINUATION OF EXEMPTION DEPENDS IN PART ON PROGRESS IN NAFTA TALKS
  • TRUMP’S TARIFF PROCLAMATIONS TO INCLUDE PROVISION TO CONSIDER ‘ALTERNATIVE WAYS’ TO ADDRESS THREAT TO U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY CAUSED BY OTHER NATIONS’ STEEL, ALUMINUM EXPORTS -OFFICIAL –
  • U.S. TRADE REPRESENTATIVE LIGHTHIZER TO HANDLE DISCUSSIONS WITH OTHER COUNTRIES ON ALTERNATIVE REMEDIES TO ‘FLEXIBLY MODIFY’ TARIFF PROCLAMATIONS -OFFICIAL
  • MAY HAVE TO RAISE TARIFFS ON OTHER COUNTRIES IF CANADA, MEXICO EXCLUDED; CAPACITY USE TARGETS MUST BE MAINTAINED -OFFICIAL
  • TRUMP OFFICIAL DECLINED TO SPECIFY ALTERNATIVES THAT OTHER COUNTRIES COULD SEEK TO AVOID STEEL, ALUMINUM TARIFFS

And the details, from Bloomberg:

Steel tariff to be set at 25%, aluminum at 10%

  • Beyond that, proclamations almost identical
  • To take effect in 15 days
  • Official says may have to raise tariffs modestly on everyone else if Canada, Mexico excluded long-term; adds document flexible enough to allow that

On exclusions:

  • Canada, Mexico will be specifically exempted from both tariffs initially
    • Trump has linked the exemptions to Nafta talks ongoing; exemption isn’t open-ended, official says
  • For other countries, will have ability to modify order owing to national security
    • European countries and others could be able to request exclusion

On economic impact:

  • White House official says there will be no significant downstream price effects, and thus no significant downstream job effects
    • Expectation counters multiple statements and prognostications from several companies and industry groups that use steel and aluminum, as well as lawmakers representing them, who have warned the tariffs will harm their businesses or industries
  • Only job effects White House sees are positive ones in U.S. steel, aluminum industries: official
  • Says process extremely, carefully well vetted

In short, tariffs but with notable exemptions, which begs the question: why did Gary Cohn quit again?

end

Brandon Smith:  a terrific article.  He correctly states that when a country introduces tariffs it must be done on strength and self sufficiency.  The USA has neither.  Its manufacturing base is at best only 10% of GDP as policies caused many manufacturing sites to travel to other foreign jurisdictions. Trump’s tax cuts will solve nothing as corporations will use the low tax rate to borrow funds and buy back stock instead of investing in the country

a must read.

(Brandon Smith/Alt Market .com)

Trump Trade Wars Are A Perfect Smokescreen For A Market Crash

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

First, I would like to say that the timing of Donald Trump’s announcement on expansive trade tariffs is unusual if not impeccable.

I say this only IF Trump’s plan was to benefit establishment globalists by giving them perfect cover for their continued demolition of the market bubbles that they have engineered since the crash of 2008.

If this was not his plan, then I am a bit bewildered by what he hopes to accomplish. It is certainly not the end of trade deficits and the return of American industry. But let’s explore the situation for a moment…

Trump is in my view a modern day Herbert Hoover. One of Hoover’s first actions as president in response to fiscal tensions of 1929 was to support increased tax cuts, primarily for corporations (this was then followed in 1932 by extensive tax increases in the midst of the depression, so let’s see what Trump does in the next couple of years).  Then, he instituted tariffs through the Smoot-Hawley Act.  His hyperfocus on massive infrastructure spending resulted in U.S. debt expansion and did nothing to dig the U.S. out of its unemployment abyss. In fact, infrastructure projects like the Hoover Dam, which were launched in 1931, were not paid off for over 50 years. Hoover oversaw the beginning of the Great Depression and ended up as a single-term Republican president who paved the way socially for Franklin D. Roosevelt, an essential communist and perhaps the worst president in American history.

This is not to say Hoover was responsible for the Great Depression.  That distinction goes to the Federal Reserve, which had artificially lowered interest rates and then suddenly raised them going into the economic downturn causing an aggressive bubble implosion (just like the central bank is doing right now).  But Hoover did actually aid the Fed in their undermining of economic stability by pursuing policies which were poorly timed.

I’m hitting readers with all of this because I am growing rather tired of the contingent of Trump apologists in the liberty movement scrambling to defend every single Trump action no matter how illogical. These people should know better.  Sorry, but Trump is not “playing 4D chess” against the globalists.  His primary initiatives have only served so far to create a useful distraction away from the globalists.

The disturbing key to all of this is the fact that many of Trump’s policies are things that I and many others have argued for in the past. The problem is, he is implementing them out of order and with bad timing, which will only make such policies appear destructive in the end, rather than constructive.

In terms of the implementation of tariffs, the people who are defending this action at this time do not seem to understand the basics of international tradeTariffs can only be enacted from a position of economic strength and resource development. This strength comes from internal self-sufficiency in production; meaning, in order for the U.S. to force a trade balance (which is what tariffs are supposed to do) the U.S. must have a strong industrial base and MUST be capable of producing most if not all necessary goods and goods in broad demand.

The fact is, U.S. manufacturing has been utterly outsourced by the very corporations Trump just gave a 10% tax cut to, and rebuilding that industrial base would take decades. Why? Because there are no incentives for corporations to bring manufacturing back.

As I already stated, Trump is instituting potentially solid policies but he is doing so out of order. Tax cuts for corporations should have been enacted only as an incentive for manufacturing jobs to be returned to America. Instead, corporations got tax cuts for absolutely nothing. And will those tax cuts go towards more jobs or innovation? Nope. They will be going to pay off unprecedented corporate debts, and stock buybacks, most of which were accrued through borrowing from the Federal Reserve.

Will this stock buyback bonanza even generate new highs in the Dow? Probably not. But I’ll explain why that is later.

If Trump had given tax incentives for corporations to bring manufacturing back into the U.S., and then given those corporations a few years to make the shift, only then would tariffs have been an effective action. But as the situation stands now, we have minimal tangible production in this country, and, historic debts held by the same overseas competitors that Trump is now seeking to “teach a lesson.”

Debt is the next issue which needs to be addressed before tariffs can ever be implemented in a practical way. In terms of national debt, rather than setting up a plan to reduce U.S. debt expenditures, Trump is increasing debt by reducing taxes while at the same time increasing spending. Trump did not take a hard stand on the debt ceiling debate as he originally claimed he would, and so, the debt train continues unabated.

Who is going to purchase this debt, I wonder? Over the past several years the largest buyer of U.S. treasury debt was the Federal Reserve through fiat money creation. Now, the Fed has tapered quantitative easing and is dumping their balance sheet at a rate faster than anyone expected. The Fed is pulling the plug on its artificial support of the economy.

The next largest buyers are major foreign central banks in countries like China, Japan and to some extent the supranational EU. If the debt buyers of last resort are now the very same countries Trump is seeking to enact tariffs over, how do you think this little theater will end? Yes, with a dump of U.S. treasury bonds and perhaps the dollar as world reserve by those nations.

But what about the U.S. consumer? Isn’t the consumer market in America so enticing that nations like China would “never dare” dump U.S. debt or the dollar? No, not really. If we are talking about a trade “war,” then a country like China, which has a vast manufacturing base and which has also been building up its own domestic consumer market, would be willing to make the sacrifice. America would be hurt far more by the threat of debt default and the loss of the dollar’s international buying power than China ever would be by the loss of American consumers.  With tariffs being implemented, they may lose the American consumer anyway.

Our retail market is hardly as appetizing as it was 10 years ago given the decade of drudgery Americans have endured, with the largest number ever of working age citizens no longer participating in the jobs market, as well as real worker wages in continued decline while the American consumer is now more indebted than at any other time in history.

All of these negative effects are weighing down our economy while the Federal Reserve is quickly deflating the fraudulent markets that the establishment used during the Obama administration to argue that America was “in recovery.” Of course, alternative economists have known since the beginning that this was a lie, and that the only thing propping up the economy and stock markets was central bank manipulation.

The Fed under Jerome Powell has made it crystal clear that they WILL be raising interest rates and cutting the Fed balance sheet, perhaps more than their dot plots had indicated in the past. Without low rates and a steadily rising balance sheet we have already seen the results. Stocks in particular have gone crazy compared to the past few years, dumping nearly 10% one week, spiking about half that the next week. One thing is certain, the supposedly endless bull market induced by the Fed years ago is now over. Stocks are in heart attack mode.

It is no coincidence that the first two times the Fed reduced its balance sheet the Dow plunged over 1,000 points. The latest dump of $23 billion at the end of February resulted in a drop of around 1,500 points. It is too early in this process to know what the trend will be, but it seems to me that stocks are being steam valved down every month. With a marked decline just after a balance sheet dump, followed by a less impressive dead cat bounce the week after.

In the meantime, Trump’s “trade war” is now being blamed in the mainstream for the decline in stocks that the Fed is actually responsible for. As I have always said, Trump is the ideal scapegoat for the inevitable economic crisis the central bankers have staged.  Trump’s tariffs might exacerbate the problem, just as Hoover’s policies did in the beginning of the Great Depression, but the blame rests squarely on the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world.  Will the average person understand this dynamic once the dust settles on our financial system?  Probably not.

So, to summarize, while Trump has indeed set in motion policies that conservatives in general tend to approve of, he has done so in an impractical way that will ultimately be blamed for a market crash the Fed created.  If conservative ideals such as limited government and sovereign trade protection get the blame for an unprecedented economic crisis then this could sabotage conservatism for generations to come.  If elections are still even a factor as this crisis unfolds, the chances of the public accepting a socialistic nightmare regime after Trump exits the White House are high. And, the banking elites that conjured the whole mess will escape once again without any punishment.

The question we must ask is this – Is Trump aware that his policies are creating a perfect distraction for those same banking elites? I believe we will know for certain the answer to that before 2018 is over.

*  *  *

If you would like to support the publishing of articles like the one you have just read, visit our donations page here.  We greatly appreciate your patronage.

END

On the same theme as above David Stockman celebrates the end of the Goldman Sachs regency at the White HOuse

(courtesy David Stockman/ContraCorner)

Stockman Celebrates The End Of The Goldman Sachs Regency At The White House

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

The financial commentariat and the robo-machines are all in a tizzy this morning because Gary Cohn up and quit. But we say good riddance: The man gave Trump bad advice on nearly every single issue—trade, taxes, fiscal policy and the Fed.

We didn’t make any bones about that viewpoint during our appearance on Fox Business this AM. When Maria Bartiromo asked us about Cohn’s departure, our reply was: Hallelujah, the Goldman Sachs Regency in the White House is finally over!

The fact is, we do have a trade crisis, but Gary Cohn and the Wall Street pseudo-free traders don’t care and never have. That’s because they fiercely support a perverted, self-serving monetary regime that systematically and massively inflates financial assets, even as it strip mines and deflates the main street economy.

As we have been pointing out in this series, there is a perverse symbiosis between the Fed and the Dirty Float central banks of the 10 major countries (China, Vietnam, Mexico, Japan, etc), which account for 90% of the nation’s $810 billion trade deficit (2017). Together they have ripped the guts out of the US industrial economy—effectively sending jobs and production abroad and cash flow and liquidated capital to Wall Street.

For its part, the Fed has monkey-hammered US competitivenessThat’s the result of its insensible 2.00%inflation policy, which has fatally inflated nominal dollar wages in a world market drowning in cheap labor priced in artificially under-valued currencies.

At the same time, its massive interest rate repression and price-keeping operations in the stock market have turned the C-suites of corporate America into financial engineering joints. So doing, they have slashed real net business investment by nearly 3o% since the turn of the century, by 20% from the 2007 pre-crisis peak and, actually, to a level in 2016 that barely exceeded real net investment two decades earlier in 1997.

Meanwhile, the C-suites shuttled upwards of $15 trillion of cash flow and debt capacity during the last decade alone into stock buybacks, vanity M&A deals and excess dividends and recaps. As we said in today’s Fox interview, America’s business leaders will not stop strip-mining their companies in order to juice Wall Street and goose their own stock options until they are taken to the woodshed by a stern task-master at the Fed.

By that we mean a central bank that is willing to get out of the financial asset price propping and pegging business, and to thereby permit the kind of stock market collapse that would finally expose the folly of  corporate America’s endless financial engineering. Indeed, at this point nothing else will stop them except being run out of their jobs for massive dissipation of corporate resources and piling their balance sheets high with unproductive debt.

Yet until there is a clean sweep at the Fed and a purging of today’s crop of financial engineers and speculators from the C-suites, there is no possible way to reverse the nation’s faltering trade accounts. Doing so would require a major revival of investment in facilities, equipment, technology, people and business innovation that simply isn’t in the cards in today’s casino.

Yesterday we mentioned that the US has incurred a massive and widening trade deficit for 43 years running, and that the cumulative shortfall totals $15 trillion. But much of that reflects long-ago dollars that have since been inflated away by the Fed’s relentless effort to stimulate more inflation.

Accordingly, if that 43-year string of trade deficits is re-priced in 2016 dollars of purchasing power, the horror shows is just all the more stunning. To wit, the US economy has incurred nearly $19 trillion of cumulative trade deficits since 1975 in today’s purchasing power.

Is there any wonder that US manufacturing output is still 2.5% below its pre-crisis level of late 2007, and that total industrial production including energy, mining and utilities has barely returned to the flat line?

In this context, one of the chief culprits responsible for those dismal results is the trillions of cheap debt-fueled M&A deals that occur annually, and which cause massive layoffs, facility closures and asset reductions in the name of short-run “synergies”.

Of course, all of this booming M&A is supposed to represent the noble work of productivity enhancement and the efficiencies fostered by the so-called market for “corporate control”. And it would in a world of honest money and free market financial discipline.

But just the opposite is true under the Fed’s destructive regime of financial asset inflation. Overwhelmingly, M&A has become a vanity project of empire-building boards and CEOs, who then slash investments and necessary operating costs in order to deliver paint-by-the numbers “synergies” and to service their bloated debts. In effect, they shrink the GDP, not expand it.

Image result for images of us mergers and acquisition levels since 2000

At length, of course, these so-called synergies get lost in the fog of time and new deals, even as they eventually morph into reduced capacity for long-term growth, employment, competitiveness and profits. And when M&A deals eventually fail, the mountains of goodwill created by these over-priced transactions get written off, while plants, equipment and people get “restructured” into what Wall Street is pleased to call “one-time costs” that are to be added-back to ex-items “earnings”.

Likewise, the fetish of share-buybacks is not reflective of the free market at work, either, even as Wall Street risibly proclaims that companies are “returning capital to shareholders” because it is the “highest and best” use of available cash.

No it’s not!

In a technologically dynamic world where continuous heavy investment is a prime facie condition for sustainable growth, the cult of stock buybacks would better be described as the grim reaper of corporate finance. In fact, it is part and parcel of the ultra-speculative climate on Wall Street and in the corporate C-suites alike that has been fostered by the Bubble Finance policies of central bankers.

It is now almost universally the case that scalping short-term profits and virtually overnight trading gains is what is driving the casino. So how in the world did Trump get convinced that borrowing $1.5 trillion to slash the corporate tax rate to 21% would “stimulate” anything except an orgy of stock buybacks and financial engineering?

Indeed, if any exclamation mark was needed on the departure of Goldman’s current plenipotentiary in the White House, this morning’s announcement that February brought an all-time record of $153 billion of stock buyback announcements was surely it.

At the current annualized run rates, stock buybacks at $800 billion plus upwards of $2 trillion of domestic M&A deals and hundreds of billions more of LBOs, leveraged recaps and special dividends will pump $3.5 trillion of cash back into the canyons of Wall Street this year.

Did Gary Cohn explain this to the Donald?

Nah, it was his job to make sure nothing got in the way.

At the same time that corporate America is being strip-minded by Wall Street and the C-suites, US workers also have one foot on the banana peel of inadequate corporate investment  in productivity enhancing tools, technology and training; and one-arm tied behind their backs owing to the drastic inflation of nominal wages.

But the latter has done nothing more than help some keep up in part or whole with the Fed’s 2.00%inflation, while relegating many others to outright jobs losses—owing to them being off-shored to the China Price for goods and the India Price for services.

Thus, since the year 2000, nominal wages of US production and nonsupervisory workers (blue line) are up by nearly 60%, which has not helped them one bit because consumer price inflation (green line) has been nearly as high.

Accordingly, real weekly wages of prime age male workers (orange line) have actually flat-lined for the past 17 years.

In the interim, of course, US goods and services production has been massively off-shored. And this trend has been acutely compounded by the systematic under-valuation of currencies by the 10 great trade offenders described yesterday.

To repeat, the US does $4 trillion of combined export and import business with the rest of the world each year. About $2 trillion of that is spread among approximately 150 countries where trade is evenly balanced as between about $1 trillion of imports and exports each.

For the most part, the counties involved such as Canada, the UK, the Scandinavian nations, Brazil etc. have not attempted to trash their own currencies any faster than the Fed has inflated its own dollar liabilities. That means they defended themselves from the Fed’s rampant expansion of US dollar liabilities, but did not take advantage of it to justify outright exchange rate suppression and mercantilist export promotion.

By contrast, the other $2 trillion of trade is accounted for by just 10 countries, of which China, Vietnam and Mexico account for over half. Yet among the Dirty Float Ten, US exports in 2017 amounted to only $625 billion, while imports from these countries were more than double that figure at $1.352 trillion.

Stated differently, US exports to the Dirty Float 10 amounted to just 46% of imports from them. And that absurd imbalance is not remotely due to faltering capitalist enterprise on main street or bad trade deals made in Washington.

To the contrary, the real US trade problem is a monetary problem that can only be cured by regime change in the Eccles Building.

While we have little hope that this reality will ever penetrate the orange comb-over, there is still a double dose of “good news” (of sorts) in today’s contretemps.

To wit, Gary Cohn didn’t get the Fed Chairman’s job, which would have made all of this far worse. And Goldman Sachs has finally been purged from the Oval Office.

There’s that—and it’s at least something.

end

Interesting:  even though Charles Koch states that Trump tariffs will help his investment in the steel industry it will lose far more jobs in other industries vs the amount of job gains in the steel and aluminum industry.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Charles Koch Slams Trump And Tariffs: “Free Trade Is Essential To American Prosperity”

Charles Koch, one of America’s most well-known industrialists (even if he’s more widely recognized for his political activism) has published a scathing editorial in the Washington Post warning that President Trump’s planned steel and aluminum tariffs would kill far more American jobs than they would create.

While the trade barriers will no doubt benefit a few beleaguered industries – US steel producers, for one – overall, they will kill far more jobs than they create, Koch argued. Because of this, it’s incumbent upon US business leaders to take their displeasure directly to the president.

Koch

It is “no coincidence”, said Koch – who, as a libertarian, opposes protectionism at the ideological level – that quality of life in the US has improved over the years as the average US tariff on imported goods has fallen – from nearly 20% in 1932 to less than 4% in 2016. Koch adds that, “throughout history” countries with the freest and most open trade have also been the wealthiest.

Just as the United States benefits from the ideas and skills that opportunity-seeking immigrants bring with them, free trade has been essential to our society’s prosperity and to people improving their lives.

The same has been true throughout history. Countries with the freest trade have tended to not only be the wealthiest but also the most tolerant. Conversely, the restriction of trade — whether through tariffs, quotas or other means — has hurt the economy and pitted people against each other. Tariffs increase prices, limit choices, reduce competition and inhibit innovation. Equally troubling, research shows that they fail to increase the number of jobs overall. Consider the devastation of cities such as Detroit, where trade barriers to aid the auto industry did nothing to halt its decline.

Furthermore, US consumers, particularly those in low-wage jobs who can “least afford” any kind of financial hardship will be hurt by the tariffs, which could send prices of consumer goods rocketing higher. Koch adds that, after helping consumers to keep more of their money by passing tax reform, it “makes little sense” to force them to waste those savings on higher consumer prices.

The administration’s recent decision to impose major steel and aluminum tariffs — on top of higher tariffs on washing machines and solar panels — will have the same harmful effect. Without a doubt, those who can least afford it will be harmed the most. Having just helped consumers keep more of their money by passing tax reform, it makes little sense to take it away via higher costs.

Koch recognizes that Koch Industries would likely benefit from import tariffs (it is involved in the steel production business) but he said corporate leaders must reject “short-term thinking” (something they’ve historically been opposed to doing) and push for policies that “must benefit everyone, not just the few.”

One might assume that, as the head of Koch Industries — a large company involved in many industries, including steel — I would applaud such import tariffs because they would be to our immediate and financial benefit. But corporate leaders must reject this type of short-term thinking, and we have. If we are to have a system in which businesses can succeed long term, policies must benefit everyone, not just the few.

To be sure, tariffs aren’t the only aspect of the US economy that threatens free trade and competition, Koch said…

Unfortunately, tariffs are not the only problem. Our entire economy is rife with cronyism, resulting in regulations and subsidies that are destroying competition, opportunity and innovation. Koch Industries benefits from many of these, as do many established companies, but we consistently work to eliminate them. We only support policies that are based on equality under the law and that help people improve their lives. This is why we successfully lobbied to end direct ethanol subsidies, despite being one of the largest ethanol producers in the United States. It is why we fought against the inclusion of a border adjustment tax in the tax-reform package, even though it would have greatly increased our profits by increasing costs to consumers.

This isn’t the first time the Kochs, whose network of political groups spent more than $250 million during the 2016 race, have come out against a Trump policy: Last year, the Kochs’ vocally opposed the original House health-care bill, which, notably, never made it to the president’s desk.

end

This is getting Washington absolutely terrified:  stocks are spooked by reports that Navarro wants Cohn’s job after all

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Washington Terrified”, Stocks Spooked By Report Navarro Wants Cohn’s Job After All

It was just 24 hours ago, when a headline hit announcing that Peter Navarro, the recently reincarnated architect of Trump’s tariff tactics presently roiling Washington, was not in the running for the director of the National Economic Council post being vacated by “globalist” Gary Cohn helped reassure shaky markets, sending stocks higher.

It turns out that he is after all, and a report from Axios claiming that Navarro is running a stealthy campaign to fill Cohn’s old job had the opposite effect, helping spook stocks.

Chart

According to Axios, “publicly, Navarro has been coy, telling Bloomberg TV he’s not in the running for the job. But privately, the hardcore trade adviser is all in for the job” which in turn has “terrified” D.C.  As reported yesterday, stocks spiked in the middle of the day when BBG first reported that Navarro had no “Cohn” career intentions.

“Sources familiar with Navarro’s thinking” told Axios there are too many people inside the White House who oppose the president’s agenda – especially on trade, and the president would like to remedy this.

Cohn reportedly tried to undercut Navarro at every turn, telling colleagues that Navarro “had no idea what he was doing, no grasp of economics, and constantly “lied to the president.”

Navarro

Navarro, meanwhile, has always been a favorite of Trump for his willingness to reflect the president’s “hard-wired” view on trade – something that only Navarro, US trade rep Robert Lighthizer and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross share. Trump would sometimes reportedly ask “Where’s Peter?” when Cohn and other White House staff had “forgotten” to tell him about a meeting.

To be sure, Trump is considering up to a dozen possible replacements for Cohn, who has been advocating for Shahira Knight, a senior figure on the NEC, is well-regarded on the Hill and played a crucial role in passing tax reform, to succeed him. Trump has only said that a replacement will be chosen “soon.”

But until a choice is made, it remains foolish to rule Navarro out.

end

USA steel will reopen an idle plant and bring back 500 employees.  However the tariffs will hurt downstream users of steel with its higher price

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Steel To Reopen Idle Plant Thanks To Trump Tariffs

U.S. Steel will reopen an idle plant in Illinois in anticipation of increased domestic demand following President Trump’s announced 25% steel and 10% aluminum tariffs. The steelmaker will be calling 500 employees back to work to the plant – which was set on idle status two years ago as a flood of cheap imported metals have pushed down domestic steel prices.

“We’re really excited to be able to tell our employees in the community in Granite City, Illinois, that we will be calling back 500 employees,” said CEO David Burritt in an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Two blast furnaces will be fired back up at the Granite City Works integrated steelmaking plant in Illinois – a process which could take up to four months, and will add approximately 1.4 million tons of steel annually to the U.S. market – generating up to $85 million in pretax income in 2018 for the company. The restarted furnace will require inventories of iron ore, metallurgical coking coal and other ingredients to operate. The site also has another idle blast furnace which could be restarted later.

The facility had been idle since December 2015 over what Burritt called unfair trade practices. “If you don’t have customers here to sell to and you can’t make money, you have to shut them down.”

Steel producers have been hurt in recent years by increasing competition from foreign competitors, particularly China, that have ramped up production at lower prices.

Prices have been rising again in the U.S. in part because of the Trump administration’s discussions over whether to widen tariffs that have been applied piecemeal in recent years. Spot-market sheet-steel prices have risen more about 37% since October to about $810 a ton, according steel-industry price surveys. –WSJ

“Our Granite City Works facility and employees, as well as the surrounding community, have suffered too long from the unending waves of unfairly traded steel products that have flooded U.S. markets,” said Burritt.

President Trump announced the tariffs on steel and aluminum last Thursday – a move widely credited with the “last straw” in White House economic advisor and former #2 at Goldman Sachs, Gary Cohn.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appeared on CNBC Wednesday with Burritt, where he said the White House is not trying to “blow up the world” with tariffs – indicating that President Trump was open to exempting U.S. trading partners Mexico and Canada under a reworked NAFTA deal.

“This feels like the beginning of a renaissance for us,” said Burritt, a former chief financial officer at heavy equipment maker Caterpillar. “It’s really important that we get this right, and now it’s finally happening.”

“You’ve got to be able to make stuff in the United States. If you take away our ability to make things, you don’t really have a society.”

“Just think about the way the U.K. used to have a big manufacturing base. It went away. If you don’t make stuff, you can’t have a strong country. You can’t protect yourself and you go by the way of Greece or maybe Puerto Rico,” added Burritt.

Not everyone’s happy

As the Wall St. Journal notes, the tariffs are going to affect several domestic manufacturers, including Caterpillar Inc. and Harley-Davidson Inc., which have both said the tariffs could significantly increase their raw material costs. Construction equipment firm Terex Corp said it would simply pass on higher steel costs to customers.

“The steel market has moved as though the tariffs are going into place,” said Tererx CEO John Garrison Tuesday. “We can’t be the shock absorber for that significant increase.”

END

Rather sad day as Toys R Us cannot find a buyer and they will liquidate.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Toys “R” Us Preparing To Liquidate

Less than 6 months after Toys “R” Us shockingly filed for Chapter 11, its bonds tumbling from par to pennies on the dollar in under a month…

… the once iconic toy retailer is set for the dust bin of history, and having failed to find a buyer in bankruptcy court is preparing for the final indignity: liquidation.

As Bloomberg reports in describing the “fluid situation” at Toys, a winding down of the US division has become increasingly likely in recent days according to “people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private.” And with every passing day, hopes are fading that a buyer will emerge to keep some of the business operating, or that lenders will agree on terms of a debt restructuring.

The toy chain, which was LBOed for $6.6 billion in 2005 by KKR, Bain Capital and Vornado Realty Trust, entered bankruptcy in September due to unsustainable leverage, the speed of its failure taking even the most seasoned professionals by surprise. Its goal was to emerge as a leaner business, with fewer stores, a more sustainable debt load, and the ability to fight of Amazon and other online retailers. It had secured a $3.1BN DIP loan to keep it funded throughout bankruptcy, but Toys “R” Us’s results deteriorated drastically and even more than expected during the holidays, casting doubt on the chain’s viability.

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg adds, the situation has also deteriorated for many of the retailer’s overseas divisions, which weren’t part of the bankruptcy.

Toys “R” Us’s U.K. unit put itself in the hands of a court administrator after talks to sell the business fell apart. Its European arm is seeking takeover bids. And talks are being held tooffload the growing Asian business, the company’s most profitable arm. It’s not yet clear what will happen to the Canadian unit, which filed at the same time as the U.S. division.

And so, Jeff Bezos’ unstoppable juggernaut claims yet another casualty, one which may have taken the shortest possible from Chapter 11 to Chapter 7.

 end
SWAMPVILLE
Semi good news:  Sessions has appointed a person outside of Washington to investigate the FISA abuse…but not a second Special counsel
(courtesy zerohedge)

Sessions: “I Have Appointed A Person Outside Of Washington” To Investigate FISA Abuse

Attorney General Jeff Sessions told Fox News Host Shannon Bream that he “will consider” naming a second special counsel to investigate the conduct of the FBI and Justice department during the 2016 election.

On Tuesday, House Judiciary Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-VA) and Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-SC) wrote a letter to Sessions demanding the appointment of a second Special Counsel.

“Matters have arisen—both recently and otherwise—which necessitate the appointment of a Special Counsel. We do not make this observation and attendant request lightly,” wrote the Congressmen.

What changed for me was the knowledge that there are two dozen witnesses that Michael Horowitz, the [DOJ] Inspector General, would not have access to,” Gowdy said. “When I counted up 24 witnesses that he would not be able to access were he to investigate it, yeah only one conclusion, that’s special counsel.” –Fox News

Instead of a second Special Counsel, Sessions says he’s appointed “a person outside of Washington” to look into the allegations.

“Well, I have great respect for Mr. Gowdy and Chairman Goodlatte, and we are going to consider seriously their recommendations,” Sessions told Bream in a Wednesday night interview. “I have appointed a person outside of Washington — many years at the Department of Justice — to look at all of the allegations that the House Judiciary Committee members sent to us and we are conducting that investigation.

Sessions also noted that he is “well aware that we have a responsibility to ensure the integrity of the FISA process.”

“We are not afraid to look at that,” the AG explained. “The inspector general, something that our inspector general is not very strong, but he has almost 500 employees, most of which are lawyers and prosecutors, and they are looking at the FISA process…. …We must make sure it is done properly, and we are going to do that, and I will consider the request.

Trump Has Already Approved

As we reported on Monday, Deputy Press Secretary Raj Shah said that President Trump’s attorneys have already approved the idea of appointing a second special counsel to investigate the FBI and Justice Department’s actions during the 2016 presidential campaign, according to White House pool reports.

The excerpt from the pool in question:

*FISA warrant should it be released? and what about a second special counsel?*

**

Presidents attorneys have addressed this and said yes to a second special counsel.

FISA: That document along with any other that the House Intelligence Committee chooses to vote out of its committee through its process and all the House procedures, we would entertain like anything else.

President Trump was critical of Sessions refusal to appoint a second special counsel, tweeting “Why is A.G. Jeff Sessions asking the Inspector General to investigate potentially massive FISA abuse,” adding “Will take forever, has no prosecutorial power and already late with reports on [former FBI Director James] Comey etc. Isn’t the I.G. an Obama guy? Why not use Justice Department lawyers? DISGRACEFUL!”

Sessions released a statement shortly afterwards defending what he considers an “appropriate process,” and that he will continue to do his job with “integrity and honor.”

AG SESSIONS STATEMENT: “We have initiated the appropriate process that will ensure complaints against this Department will be fully and fairly acted upon if necessary….” (1/2) https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/968856971075051521 

AG SESSIONS STATEMENT CT’D: “As long as I am the Attorney General, I will continue to discharge my duties with integrity and honor, and this Department will continue to do its work in a fair and impartial manner according to the law and Constitution. “ (2/2) https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/968856971075051521 

end
Trump had threatened to fire White House lawyer  McGahan III after he refused to deny to Trump the Mueller probe leak
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Threatened To Fire White House Lawyer After He Refused To Deny Mueller-Probe Leak

We wondered why the pace of leaks from Special Counsel Bob Mueller’s office started to slow late last summer – and then, suddenly, Mueller dropped the Manafort-Gates indictments, unsealed George Papadopoulos’s plea agreement and announced the cooperation of Michael Flynn, all in a relatively narrow time period, with almost nothing appearing in the press ahead of time.

It’s notable that the pace of leaks started to slow after Mueller reportedly demoted Peter Strzok,  the FBI agent who was first outed for trading anti-Trump text messages with his mistress, Lisa Page, and also helped steer the FBI’s probe away from signs of Hillary Clinton’s guilt.

But now, the pace of leaks out of the special counsel’s office is quickening once again: Tonight, for the first time in months, the Washington Post and New York Times published twin bombshells based on information clearly leaked by a member of Mueller’s team. 

McGahn

The NYT reports that President Trump considered firing White House Counsel Don McGahn III after he refused to release a statement denying reports that he had threatened to resign when Trump asked him about firing Mueller.

Trump’s conversation with McGahn, which occurred after McGahn had met with investigators from Mueller’s team, was one of two conversations where Trump reportedly asked witnesses about what they said to the grand jury.

Former White House Staff Secretary Rob Porter later told McGahn that Trump had considered firing him for his disloyalty.

Trump also reportedly asked former chief of staff Reince Preibus whether Mueller’s team was “nice” to himwhen Preibus sat for an interview with investigators…

The report clearly suggests that Mueller is still casting about for evidence that the president has tried to obstruct justice – and, as part of this, is also exploring whether Trump tried to disrupt the Mueller probe.

The experts said the meetings with Mr. McGahn and Mr. Preibus would probably sharpen Mr. Mueller’s focus on the president’s interactions with other witnesses. The special counsel has questioned witnesses recently about their interactions with the president since the investigation began. The experts also said the episodes could serve as evidence for Mr. Mueller in an obstruction case.

The WaPo report focuses on another branch of the Mueller investigation (it’s not really accurate to refer to it as “the Russia probe” anymore because, though Mueller says he’s still looking into the Russia angle, he has clearly moved on to other potentially more fruitful avenues). That branch is the financial and business conflicts of both the Trump family and his associates – epitomized by Mueller’s prosecution of former Trump campaign executive Paul Manafort.

In the WaPo report, Congressional investigators apparently believe they’ve caught Blackwater founder Erik Prince (brother of Trump Secretary of Education Betsy DeVoes) in a lie.

According to the story, Prince told investigators that an already-public 2017 meeting in the Seychelles between Prince and a Russian emissary wasn’t planned.

Erik Prince

Erik Prince

But apparently, George Nader, a Lebanese-American businessman who’s been caught up in the probe, told investigators that the meeting was planned for the purposes of establishing a relationship between Trump and Moscow as Trump prepared – and this is important – to take the oath of office. As we’ve already learned, communications between an incoming administration (or its representatives) and foreign officials isn’t illegal (it’s actually quite common)

Last year, Prince told lawmakers, and the news media, that his Seychelles meeting with Kirill Dmitriev, the head of a Russian government-controlled wealth fund, was an unplanned, unimportant encounter that came about by chance because he happened to be at a luxury hotel in the Indian Ocean island nation with officials from the United Arab Emirates.

In his statements, Prince has specifically denied reporting by The Washington Post that said the Seychelles meeting, which took place about a week before Trump’s inauguration, was described by U.S., European and Arab officials as part of an effort to establish a back-channel line of communication between Moscow and the incoming administration.

Prince told lawmakers on the House Intelligence Committee that he did not plan to meet Dmitriev in the Seychelles but that once he was there discussing possible business deals with UAE officials, they unexpectedly suggested that he visit the hotel bar and meet Dmitriev.

“At the end, one of the entourage says, ‘Hey, by the way, there’s this Russian guy that we’ve dealt with in the past. He’s here also to see someone from the Emirati delegation. And you should meet him, he’d be an interesting guy for you to know, since you’re doing a lot in the oil and gas and mineral space,’ ” Prince told lawmakers.

The two men, he said, spoke for no more than 30 minutes, or about the time it took him to drink a beer.

While the meeting itself may have been legal, lying to the FBI is, of course, blatantly illegal – and Mueller has already demonstrated an eagerness to bust people for perjury. Which the begs the question: Why, then, has Prince not been arrested and charged? If WaPo’s reporting is accurate, then it wouldn’t be out of the question – in fact, it’d be likely. Though, there’s also the possibility that Nader could be lying, which isn’t addressed in the story.

Either way, we imagine the leaks from these past couple weeks are only the beginning: Expect updates from the interminable Mueller probe to become a daily fact of life once again.

END

Phase ii begins with the second dossier trying to propel the Trump-Russian election collusion

(courtesy zerohedge)

John Kerry, State Dept In Crosshairs As House Intel Committee Enters “Phase Two” Of Investigation

The House Select Committee on Intelligence has John Kerry in its crosshairs – as Congressional investigators explore what involvement, if any, the former Secretary of State had in the unverified “Steele dossier” which relied on intelligence from high level Kremlin officials at a time when US-Russia relations were deteriorating.

Assembled by former British spy Christopher Steele, the “dossier” is actually a collection of memos which contain both wildly salacious claims and loosely factual information – much of it based on hearsay or public knowledge.

Steele was paid $168,000 by opposition research firm Fusion GPS, while Fusion was funded by the DNC and the Clinton campaign. The FBI, however, had previously agreed to pay Steele $50,000 if he could verify the dossier’s claims – which he was unable to do.

Still, the FBI used Steele’s dossier – a collection of 17 memos, in their application for a FISA warrant to spy on Trump advisor Carter Page – and via “unmasking,” his associates.

After the House Intel Committee majority released their four-page “FISA memo” detailing how senior officials at the FBI and DOJ used the unverified and highly biased Steele dossier to obtain a FISA warant, and the House Intel Committee minority released their own “counter memo,” the investigation moved into Phase II. 

Phase II

House Intel Committee chair Devin Nunes (R-CA) gave us a peek behind the curtain in early February, telling Fox’s Bret Baier “We are in the middle of what I call phase two of our investigation, which involves other departments, specifically the State Department and some of the involvement that they had in this.”

: Devin Nunes says this is just the first memo to be released. He says there will be another one dealing specifically with the State Department’s role in everything that happened.

While it is unclear what role the State Department may have in surveillance abuses, the Washington Examiner‘s Byron York noted last month that former MI6 spy, Christopher Steele, was “well-connected with the Obama State Department,” according to the book Collusion: Secret meetings, dirty money, and how Russia helped Donald Trump win” written by The Guardian correspondent Luke Harding.

Harding notes that Steele’s work during the World Cup soccer corruption investigation earned the trust of both the FBI and the State Department:

The [soccer] episode burnished Steele’s reputation inside the U.S. intelligence community and the FBI. Here was a pro, a well-connected Brit, who understood Russian espionage and its subterranean tricks. Steele was regarded as credible. Between 2014 and 2016, Steele authored more than a hundred reports on Russia and Ukraine.These were written for a private client but shared widely within the State Department and sent up to Secretary of State John Kerry and to Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, who was in charge of the U.S. response to the Ukraine crisis.

Shedding more light on the subject is longtime Kerry colleague and Steele pal, Jonathan Winer – who penned a Feb. 8 op-ed in the Washington Post entitled “Devin Nunes is investigating me: Here’s the Truth”

From Winer – along with a Senate Judiciary Committee criminal referral of Christopher Steele – we learned that several Clinton allies were also connected to both the dossier and the Kerry State Department.

Winer notes that “in late September [2016], I spoke with an old friend, Sidney Blumenthal, whom I met 30 years ago when I was investigating the Iran-contra affair for then-Sen. Kerry and Blumenthal was a reporter at The Post. At the time, Russian hacking was at the front and center in the 2016 presidential campaign. The emails of Blumenthal, who had a long association with Bill and Hillary Clinton, had been hacked in 2013 through a Russian server.

While talking about that hacking, Blumenthal and I discussed Steele’s reports. He showed me notes gathered by a journalist I did not know, Cody Shearer, that alleged the Russians had compromising information on Trump of a sexual and financial nature.”

Winer also describes a meeting with Christopher Steele during which he learned that Steele’s sources were pointing to collusion between Trump associates and the Kremlin – which also allegedly hacked the DNC.

In September 2016, Steele and I met in Washington and discussed the information now known as the “dossier.” Steele’s sources suggested that the Kremlin not only had been behind the hacking of the Democratic National Committee and the Hillary Clinton campaign but also had compromised Trump and developed ties with his associates and campaign.

Winer’s op-ed corroborates the series of events outlined in a criminal referral for Steele issued by Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC), which asks the DOJ to investigate Steele for allegedly lying to the FBI about his contacts with the media.

Winer gives Blumenthal’s memos to Steele…

While we’ve known for a while that Steele used Kremlin officials for information contained in the infamous “Steele dossier,” Winer’s op-ed reveals that he gave Steele memos from Clinton operative Sydney Blumenthal – which originalted with Clinton “hatchet man” Cody Shearer.

Winer claims he didn’t think Steele would share the Clinton-sourced information with anyone else in the government.

“But I learned later that Steele did share them — with the FBI, after the FBI asked him to provide everything he had on allegations relating to Trump, his campaign and Russian interference in U.S. elections,” Winer writes.

Deeper Kerry Connections

As Journalist Sara Carter notes, “Also in September, 2016 Steele briefed Winer on the dossier at a Washington Hotel, according to an expose recently published in The New YorkerWiner prepared his summary and shared it with former Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland and Jon Finer, who was then chief of staff Kerry. Kerry was then briefed by Finer several days later, according to the report.

end

I will  see you FRIDAY night

HARVEY

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