MARCH 9/GOLD REBOUNDS, UP $2.25 TO $1323.40/SILVER UP 21 CENTS TO $16.60/VERY STRONG JOBS REPORT AND IT SEEMS BROAD BASED/CONSUMER PRICES SPIKING IN CHINA/CHINA CONSIDERING INCREASING TARIFFS TO COUNTER THE TRUMP TARIFFS/MORE SWAMP STORIES/

 

 

GOLD: $1323.40  UP $2.25

Silver: $16.60 UP 21 CENTS

Closing access prices:

Gold $1323.75

silver: $16.61

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1326.55 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1318.45

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $8.10

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1329.10

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1318.85

PREMIUM SECOND FIX /NY:$10.25

SHANGHAI REJECTS NY PRICING OF GOLD.

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1319.35

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1319.50

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1320.60

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1320.85

For comex gold:

MARCH/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR MARCH CONTRACT: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR:4 FOR 400 OZ

For silver:

MARCH

173 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

865,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 4727 for 23,635,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $8907/OFFER $8,977: DOWN $348(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $8947/offer $9017: DOWN $308  (CLOSING/5 PM)

 

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 796 contracts from 195,724  RISING TO 196,520  DESPITE YESTERDAY’S TINY  1 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING.  WE OBVIOUSLY HAD ZERO COMEX LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER, WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP : 2693 EFP’S FOR MAY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 2693 CONTRACTS.  WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2693 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2693 CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 13.43 MILLION OZ   WITH THE RISE IN OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER AT THE COMEX.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MARCH:

18,356 CONTRACTS (FOR 7 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 18,356 CONTRACTS OR 91.780 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 2622 CONTRACTS OR 13.111 MILLION OZ/DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  91.780 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 13.11% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:  584.255 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018: 236.879 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MONTH OF FEBRUARY: 244.945 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN  IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 796 DESPITE THE TINY 1 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE.  WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2693 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER . FROM THE CME DATA 2693 EFP’S  FOR THE  MONTH OF MAY WERE ISSUED FOR  A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS.   WE GAINED  3489 OI CONTRACTS i.e. 2693 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A INCREASE OF 796  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 1 CENT AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.49 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.982 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 140% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 173 NOTICE(S) FOR 865,000 OZ OF SILVER

*** note in gold.  last last night, the CME released EFP’s for yesterday and today and I reversed them ie. the EFP for today is 7473 and yesterday 7106.  I will not change and it will not make a difference when the two are added.

In gold, the open interest  FELL BY A STRONG 10,663 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 497,387  WITH THE CONSIDERABLE FALL IN PRICE YESTERDAY ($5.45) HOWEVER  FOR TODAY, THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED AN GOOD SIZED  7106 CONTRACTS  THE ISSUANCE OF,  APRIL SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 7106 CONTRACTS ,  JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS AND THEN ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.    The new OI for the gold complex rests at 497,387. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI  TOGETHER WITH  THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY COMEX. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES. IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE LOSS OI  CONTRACTS: 10,663 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND A GOOD SIZED 7106 OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS:  3557 CONTRACTS OR 355,700 OZ =11.06 TONNES

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 7473 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH : 68,796 CONTRACTS OR 6,879,600  OZ OR 213.96 TONNES (7 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9828 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 982,800 OZ/ TRADING DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :   SO FAR THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 213.96 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 213.96/2550 x 100% TONNES =  8.39% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN MARCH ALONE.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:  1464.33 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018: 653.22  TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY: 649.45 TONNES

Result: A  HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE CONSIDERABLE FALL IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($5.45)HOWEVER, WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7106 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE ALSO OBSERVED A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7106 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A NET LOSS IN OPEN INTEREST OF 3557 contracts ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7106 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 10,663 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the LOSS in total oi equates to 11.063  TONNES).

we had: 0 notice(s) filed upon for nil oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $2.25 : NO  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD /

Inventory rests tonight: 833.73 tonnes.

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE BY 796  contracts from 195724 UP TO 196,520 (AND now A LITTLE  CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE THE TINY FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  (1 CENTS WITH RESPECT TO  YESTERDAY’S TRADING).   OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER  2686 EFP CONTRACTS FOR MAY  (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM) AND 0 EFP’S FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. WE HAD SOME COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF  796 CONTRACTS TO THE 2693 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A GAIN OF 3484  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS  WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN MARCH (SEE BELOW). THE NET GAIN TODAY IN OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  17.420 MILLION OZ!!!

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED  INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE TINY  FALL OF 1 CENT IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING ). BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 2693 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR MARCH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)FRIDAY MORNING/LATE THURSDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 18.76 POINTS OR 0.57% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 341.69 POINTS OR 1.11% / The Nikkei closed UP 101.13 POINTS OR 0.47%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.37%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.3365/Oil DOWN to 60.58 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.25 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED EXCEPT PARIS CAC  .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.3365 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3360 /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR . CHINA IS NOT VERY  HAPPY TODAY (STRONGER CURRENCY GOOD CHINESE MARKETS/BUT TRUMP TARIFFS  INITIATED/ ) 

 

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

 i)North Korea

Not so fast! Before Trump is to meet North Korea must take “concrete actions”

let us see what Kim Jung Un does

(zerohedge)

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

i)Tepco now admits that its ICE WALL is failing.  Radiation is leaking through the water

( zerohedge)

ii)Bank of Japan leaves policy stance unchanged.  After September, they will be the last one standing per QE

( zerohedge)

3 c CHINA

i)Hong Kong:

We have been highlighting this story to you for the past few weeks as the Hong Kong dollar is floundering.  House prices are sky high. The problem is citizens are buying dollars with the higher yield than Hong Kong yields and that is putting pressure on their Hong Kong dollar

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)The yuan tumbled this morning on news that consumer prices are spiking the most in 5 years with food the chief culprit. This is worrisome to China

( zerohedge)

iii)China is threatening a tariff response that according to China could seriously hurt the international trade order
( zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Britain

It now seems that Britain’s largest charity Oxfam is a fraud with massive public money disappearing

( G Meotti/Gatestone Institute)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

Deposit power/CBL/New Zealand

This does not look good for New Zealand as their chief guarantor of properties,CBL collapsed. Now Deposit power has also collapsed putting 10,000 homes at risk

( MishShedlock/Mishtalk)

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Ronan Manly is seeing what I am seeing:  delays in reporting.  He comments that the LBMA will delay reporting on the gold and silver price auction

Manly writes: “It must be obvious to everyone that the LBMA and its bullion bank members do not want the transparency that gold and silver trade reporting would provide. Otherwise they would not have spent four years on a project that any individual investment bank could start and complete within less than three months.”

( RonanManly/Bullionstar)

ii)A very good commentary today from Hugo Salinas Price who collectedly states that if the uSA seeks to remove its trade deficits with the rest of the world, then it will no longer be the reserve currency of the world. He concludes that the only replacement  will be gold.

( Hugo Salinas Price)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

Trading:/jobs report

i)an extremely strong economy with February payrolls adding 313,000 jobs.  But Wall Street looks for hourly earnings and they disappointed.  The need wage growth to stimulate their version of inflation

( zerohedge)

ii)Initial reaction:  stocks rise, bond yields rise  (dangerous) with the mixed payroll report

( zerohedge)

iib)Now treasury yields have risen above 2.90% and this is the danger zone for stocks

( zerohedge)

iii)Broad strength everywhere including retail

( zerohedge)
iv)This is not a good reading:  wholesale sales tumble in January, the biggest drop in 2 years but inventories build
This is will be a temporarily boost to 1 st quarter GDP but when inventories fall, and they will, GDP will drop
(courtesy zerohedge)

v)here is another retail casualty:  Claires as they are to file for bankruptcy protection..another Amazon victim( zerohedge)

vi)SWAMPVILLE

Have fun with this:  Former porn star Stormy Daniels is hit with a restraining order over the Trump affair talk

( zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE  10,663 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level 497,387  WITH THE CONSIDERABLE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($5.45 LOSS/ YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  WE HAD HUGE COMEX GOLD LIQUIDATION.  HOWEVER THE CME REPORTS THAT  THE BANKERS ISSUED AN FAIR SIZED  COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE HAD A 7109 EFP’S ISSUED FOR APRIL ,   0 FOR JUNE AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:  TOTAL  7109 CONTRACTS.  THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON FORWARD… THE COMEX IS NOW AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST TODAY: 3557 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 7109 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST 10,663 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3557 contracts OR 355,700  OZ OR 11.06 TONNES.

Result: A  HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE FALL IN YESTERDAY’S GOLD TRADING ($5.45.)   TOTAL OPEN INTEREST LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3557 OI CONTRACTS..

We have now entered the non active contract month of MARCH where we LOST 47 contracts DOWN to 560 contracts. We had 4 notices served upon yesterday, so in essence we LOST 43 contacts or an additional 4300 oz will not stand for delivery at the comex AND THESE BOYS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

April saw a LOSS of 22,447 contracts DOWN to 274,090. May saw another GAIN of 4 contracts to stand at 243. The really big June contract month saw a GAIN of 10,755 contracts UP to 135,224 contracts.

We had 0 notice(s) filed upon today for  000 oz

comex gold volumes are RISING AGAIN

Here is a summary of the latest gold trading volumes at the Comex per year

certainly the introduction of EFP’s has certainly had an effect:

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 372,548 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  291,956 CONTRACTS

comex gold volumes are RISING AGAIN

Here is a summary of the latest gold trading volumes at the Comex per year

certainly the introduction of EFP’s has certainly had an effect:

Meanwhile, gold-trading volumes on the COMEX have never been higher:

end

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A SMALL 796  CONTRACTS FROM 195,724 UP TO 196,520 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S  1 CENT FALL IN TRADING).   HOWEVER,WE WERE ALSO INFORMED THAT WE HAD  2693 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MAY ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON: THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2693.   THE SILVER BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE JUST LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY. USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AS WE HAVE JUST SEEN IN GOLD TODAY. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST BEGUN IN EARNEST IN SILVER STARTING IN SEPTEMBER 2017. HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS. NICK LAIRD WAS KIND ENOUGH TO SUPPLY US THE TOTAL FOR 2017 GOLD EFP’S AND IT WAS 6600 TONNES FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR.  WE OBVIOUSLY HAD ZERO LONG COMEX SILVER LIQUIDATION BUT WE ALSO HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL SILVER OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE ARE ALSO WITNESSING A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR COMEX METAL IN THIS NON ACTIVE JANUARY AS WELL AS THAT CONTINUAL MIGRATION OF EFPS OVER TO LONDON. ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS THERE ARE MORE EFP’S ISSUED FOR GOLD THAN SILVER.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED  3489  SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS 796 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2693 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:3489 CONTRACTS 

AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX

We are now in the  active delivery month of MARCH and here the front month LOST 19 contracts FALLING TO 639 contracts. We had 30 contracts filed upon yesterday, so we GAINED 11 contracts or an additional 85,000 will  stand in this active delivery month of March.(AS SOMEBODY IS IN GREAT NEED OF PHYSICAL SILVER)

April LOST 8 contracts FALLING TO 430 .

The next big active delivery month for silver will be May and here the OI LOST 805 contracts DOWN to 145,080

We had 173 notice(s) filed for 850,000 OZ for the MARCH 2018 contract for silver

INITIAL standings for MARCH/GOLD

MARCH 9/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
964 oz
Scotia
30 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  nil OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notice(s)
 400 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
560 contracts
(56,000 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4 notices
400 oz
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
we had 1 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i) Out of Scotia: 964.50 oz
(30 kilobars)
total withdrawal: 964.50   oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 adjustment(s)
total registered or dealer gold:  339,378.269 oz or 10.556 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   9,124,643.635 oz 283.81 tones
THE COMEX IS AGAIN IN STRESS AS ONLY 10.556 TONNES OF GOLD ARE LEFT TO SERVICE DELIVERIES
 

For MARCH:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MARCH. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4) x 100 oz or 0 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (560 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 56,400 oz, the number of ounces standing in this nonactive month of MARCH (1.7542 tonnes)

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MARCH contract month:

No of notices served (4 x 100 oz or ounces + {(560)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz )which equals 56400 oz standing in this  nonactive delivery month of March . THERE IS 10.556 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE LOST 43 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 4300 OZ WILL NOT STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH.

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IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 70 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DECEMBER DELIVERY MONTH

MARCH INITIAL standings/SILVER

March 9 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 20,003.330 oz
Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
595,976.175 oz
Scotia
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
173
CONTRACT(S
(865,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
466 contracts
(2,330,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 4727 contracts

(23,635,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

total inventory deposits/withdrawals/ into dealer: nil oz

we had 2 deposits into the customer account

i) into CNT  16,611.445 oz

ii) Into Scotia: 579,364.730 oz

ii) JPMorgan:  zero

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 135 million oz of  total silver inventory or 54% of all official comex silver.

JPMorgan did not add any silver into its warehouses (official) today.

total deposits today:  595,976.175 oz

we had 1 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of  Delaware 20,003.330 oz

total withdrawals; 20,003.330  oz

we had 1 adjustments

i) Out of CNT:  827,327.06 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

total dealer silver:  59.419 million

total dealer + customer silver:  252.893 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the March. contract month is represented by 173 contract(s) FOR 865,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in March., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4727 x 5,000 oz = 23,635,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of Mar. (639) and the number of notices served upon today (173 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the March contract month: 4727(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of March(639) -number of notices served upon today (173)x 5000 oz equals 25,965,000 oz of silver standing for the March contract month. 

We GAINED an additional 11 contracts or 55,000 additional silver oz will stand for delivery at the comex as somebody was in urgent need of physical silver.

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 94,067 CONTRACTS

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 73,029 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 73,029 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO  365 MILLION OZ OR 52.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -2.13% (MARCH 9/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.52% to NAV (March 9/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.13%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.52%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV RISES TO -3.07%: NAV 13.70/TRADING 13.27//DISCOUNT 3.07.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

March 8/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN 8.00/A SLIGHT CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A WITHDRAWAL OF .25 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $15.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

March 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD UP $18.70/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

March 1/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $12.30/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/ A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER 70 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 831.03 TONNES/.

feb 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.80 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 831.03 TONNES

FEB 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.40/WE HAD ANOTHER INVENTORY GAIN/THIS TIME 1.77 TONNE ADDITION TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 831.03 TONNES/WE HAVE HAD 5 INCREASES IN THE PAST 6 TRADING GOLD SESSIONS/

FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15, WE HAD A GOOD INVENTORY GAIN OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.26 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP 90 CENTS AGAIN TODAY, WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.79 TONNES

FEB 21/ WITH THE 90 CENT GAIN WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 3.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 827.79 TONNES

Feb 20/WITH GOLD DOWN BY $24.25, THE CROOKS DECIDED THAT THEY HAD BETTER RETURN (DEPOSIT) 3.34 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 824,64 TONNES

Feb 16/WITH GOLD UP BY 25 CENTS, THE CROOKS DECIDED AGAIN TO RAID THE COOKIE JAR BY WITHDRAWING 2.36 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 821.30 TONNES

Feb 15/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.66 TONNES

Feb 14/AN ADDITIONAL OF 2.95 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD WITH THE HUGE GAIN OF 27.40 IN PRICE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.66 TONNES

Feb 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 820.71 TONNES

Feb 12/STRANGE!!WITH GOLD RISING BY 12.00 DOLLARS, THE CROOKS DECIDED AGAIN TO WITHDRAW 5.6 TONNES OF GOLD FOR EMERGENCY USE ELSEWHERE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 820.71 TONNES

Feb 9/AGAIN WITH HUGE TURMOIL ON THE MARKETS, THE CROOKS WITHDREW 2 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 826.31 TONNES

Feb 8/DESPITE THE GOOD GAIN IN PRICE FOR GOLD TODAY/THE CROOKS REMOVED .96 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.31 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

MARCH 9/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 833.73 tonnes

*IN LAST 339 TRADING DAYS: 107,41 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 269 TRADING DAYS: A NET 48.89 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS, NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

March 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

March 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS: A HUGE 1.479 MILLION OZ WAS ADDED TO SILVER’S INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

March 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ./

FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ/

feb 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ

FEB 26/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ/

FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE ADDITION OF 1.315 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ/

fEB 22.2018/WITH SILVER DOWN  1 CENT TODAY, WE HAD NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.271 MILLION OZ/

FEB 21/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INVENTORY ADDITION OF 1.226 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.271 MILLION OZ/

Feb 20/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ

Feb 16/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

Feb 15/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

Feb 14./NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY DESPITE THE HUGE RISE IN PRICE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ

Feb 13./NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

Feb 12/AGAIN, WITH TODAY’S HUGE RISE IN SILVER PRICE, IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

Feb 9/AGAIN WITH TURMOIL ON THE MARKETS, STRANGELY IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

Feb 8/DESPITE THE TURMOIL TODAY AND A PRICE RISE: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.045 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 9/2018: NO CHANGES TO SILVER INVENTORY/

Inventory 318.069 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO 2.00/ and libor 6 month duration 2.24

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 1.97%

libor 2.26 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .29%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.36%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.53

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.17

GOLD LENDING RATES FALLING TO APPROACH ZERO AS PHYSICAL GOLD IS SCARCE/GOFO  RATES RISING

end

At 3:30 pm we receive a COT report which has no real value due to the huge exit of EFP contracts morphing to forwards over in London.

However for the sake of completeness I will provide them for you but please do not ask me what they mean because quite frankly I do not know

Gold COT

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
245,587 61,764 62,811 153,421 358,324 461,819 482,899
Change from Prior Reporting Period
-6,394 -11,499 -9,206 -8,106 -2,999 -23,706 -23,704
Traders
183 79 86 50 62 267 196
 
Small Speculators  
Long Short Open Interest  
46,281 25,201 508,100  
-1,054 -1,056 -24,760  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, March

our large speculators

those large specs who have been long in gold pitched (transferred through EFP) 6,394 contracts

those large specs who have been short in gold covered a huge 11,499 contracts from their short side(maybe transferred their liability to London).

our commercials

those commercials who have been long in gold pitched (transferred) a net 8106 contracts from their long side

those commercials who have been short in gold covered (transferred liability to London) a net 2999 contracts from their short side.

our small speculators

those small specs who have been long in gold pitched (transferred) 1054 contracts from their long side

those small specs who have been short in gold covered (transferred) 1056 contracts from their short side.

Conclusion:

i can only think of one word: fraud

And now for our silver COT

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
68,686 62,500 23,783 74,760 96,570
5,663 -2,031 6,018 -7,378 -31
Traders
112 55 47 40 36
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 196,590 Long Short
29,361 13,737 167,229 182,853
-1,056 -709 3,247 4,303 3,956
non reportable positions Positions as of: 172

our large speculators

strange!! those large speculators who have been long in silver added a net 5663 contracts even after receiving a huge number of EFP contracts.

those large specs who have been short in silver covered (transferred) 2999 contracts from their short side

 

our commercials

those commercials who have been long in silver pitched (transferred)  a huge 7378 contracts from their long side

those commercials who have been short in silver covered (transferred) 31 contracts from their short side.

 

our small speculators

those small specs who have been long in silver pitched (transferred) 1056 contracts from their long side

those small specs who have been short in silver covered (transferred) 709 contracts from their short side.

Conclusion: same as gold/  Fraud

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for FRIDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Women’s Pension Crisis Highlights Dangers To Savers

Women’s Pension Crisis Highlights Dangers To Savers

– International Women’s Day highlights the underreported UK Women’s pension crisis
– 2.66 million affected by UK government’s change to state pension act
– Women’s pension crisis is one of many in the UK, where there is a £710bn deficit for prospective retirees
– Changes by government highlights the counterparty risks pensions are exposed to
– Global problem as pensions gap of developed countries growing by $28B per day
– Savers and investors should look to invest in gold as part of their pensions

Imagine contributing to a pension throughout your working life only to be told that you won’t receive it when you expect to. When you receive this information it comes with just a few years’ notice. There is little time to make alternative pension arrangements. You have a choice: either continue to work until your pension comes in, or live on very little in the meantime.

This is a reality over 2.6 million women in the UK currently face. Those born in the 1950s have been told by the British government that their retirement ages have been increased from 60 to 65 years of age. This change means they will not receive their state pensions when they originally expected to. This is part of a move to bring men and women’s retirements to the same level.

Put that way, this looks to be a good move. Particularly when one considers the demands for women to be treated equally to men. But when a change is made in this way it is about anything but equality.

The decision by the UK government to delay paying pensions to women of a certain birthdate has resulted in one of the biggest pension crises in the UK, yet it is the least reported and discussed.

Pensions crises is something the country is rapidly getting used to. As well as the 2.6 million women affected by the UK’s Pensions Act there are the many thousands of men and women affected by private pension disasters that amount to over £710bn in deficits.

Each of these issues highlight the high exposure pensions have to counterparty risk. Millions of individuals believe they have safely contributed to a retirement pot only for the government to tell them they have to wait even longer for it or that the company they trusted to support their pension has gone bust.

UK’s pension inequality is economic inequality

Yesterday it was International Women’s Day (IWD) and on Sunday many of us around the world will be celebrating Mother’s Day. Both days are there to recognise the achievements and sacrifices of women. IWD is also there to raise attention to the plights of billions of women across the globe. Many are disadvantaged through economic, political, sexual and other means. Campaigns run throughout the year to help them but IWD is a day to really bring the spotlight to them.

Few in the West realise that IWD has an important place in the UK. We still have major problems with sex trafficking, domestic abuse and discrimination against minorities.

One of the least reported areas in the economic discrimination of women. I’m not talking about gender pay gap, the lack of female CEOs or maternity leave. In this specific instance I’m talking about the female pension crisis that has left over a two million women in a huge financial limbo.

Women Against State Pension Inequality (WASPI) explain how this has happened:

The 1995 Conservative Government’s Pension Act included plans to increase women’s SPA (State Pension Age) to 65, the same as men’s. WASPI agrees with equalisation, but does not agree with the unfair way the changes were implemented – with little or no personal notice (1995/2011 Pension Acts), faster than promised (2011 Pension Act), and no time to make alternative plans. Retirement plans have been shattered with devastating consequences.

WASPI has been campaigning for a long-time to have the changes brought in in a more economically viable manner, so that women can afford their retirements or at least have time to make alternative arrangements. They estimate those suffering as a result of the changes could be higher than the 2.6 million reported by the UK government.

In early February 2018 the government rejected WASPI’s proposals for a fairer transition period, claiming it would “represent a loss of over £70bn to the public purse.” This was a burden pensions minister Guy Opperman said he was not prepared to pass onto ‘young people’.

What about the burden of those women who have not been given enough notice regarding their retirement age? i News, spoke to one WASPI campaigner about the hardships now facing many women in their later 50s and early 60s:

“I was 58 when I got a letter saying my state pension age was going up from 65 to 66. It was a shock because I thought I was getting my state pension at 60.” Ms Eachus says some of the women she has helped have been in serious financial hardship, while others had no idea their pension age had risen. “At Christmas, we sent food and toiletry parcels to women in their sixties who are struggling. We shouldn’t have to do that. Women are having to sell their homes. One of the women I spoke to was sleeping on someone’s sofa. Some are too embarrassed to tell their family.”

In a study carried out by former pensions minister Rachel Reeves on the 2011 Act it found out of 416,000 women considered, 80,000 lost up to £8,000 because of the changes in the 2011 Act.  48,000 lost out on as much as £12,000 thanks to their new state pension age. This study did not take into account the Acts of 1995 and 2007 which stripped other 1950s born women of thousands more.

MP Frank Field, in 2006, estimated there were some women who were as much as £40,000 out of pocket, due to the changes. Those who have to continue working to the retirement age are not expected to receive more as a result of their increased economic contribution through National Insurance payments.

Economic inequality goes beyond women’s pension crisis

A report released yesterday by The Living Wage Foundation and the Fawcett Society revealed the true dangers women are economically exposed to.

A quarter of all women workers in the UK earn less than the living wage. Three out of five working women only have enough savings to last a month if they lost their job.

In short, the pension poverty of women is not set to improve. This, combined with the overall pension crisis in the UK makes for a dire future.

As of September 2017 £710 billion was the estimated, terrifying size of the UK pensions deficit. Ageing populations, low birth rates and dire monetary policy means that over 27 million people in the UK will not be receiving adequate pensions once they retire.

A 2017 report looked at both public and corporate pensions. It was the government and public pensions that were the most unhealthy, accounting for 75% of the under funding.

In November 2017, the OECD warned that the UK’s defined benefit workplace pension plans (final salary schemes) as ‘persistently underfunded’ and the state pension as seriously lacking.

It’s not much better in the corporate pensions sector of the US and UK where the WEF estimates there are over $4 trillion in liabilities.

This year the biggest pension news in the UK has come courtesy of the Carillion crisis, estimated to have left a £900 million debt pile and 30,000 pensions at risk. This was yet another example of mismanagement and lack of consideration for workers.

Everyone future retiree is exposed to these issues. They emphasise the importance of saving for retirement and ensuring your pension is both funded and properly diversified.

Men and women alike are heading for pension inequality

Here in the UK there is some growing resentment about campaigns such as IWD, many believe it is sexist. A frequently asked question on Twitter yesterday was ‘Well, when’s International Men’s Day’, suggesting men were sidelined for the female cause. International Men’s Day is November 19th and it was conceived in 1991.

In the UK (and many Western countries) there is an assumption that women’s rights campaigns have been successful and we should be happy with where we are now. The problem is that women of a certain age have been discriminated against.

For a funny reason whenever there is a pension crisis in the UK as we have seen recently with Carillion or BHS to name few, the government rallies around to find a solution. When it is a government-led crisis then they (and the media) are suspiciously quiet and unhelpful.

The pension crisis is not exclusive to women, but it is the only one that has come about due to discrimination by the government. It is a terrifying example of how the government has the power to not only provide but to also takeaway. The UK government very much holds the financial fate of these women in its hands, with very little acknowledgement of the consequences.

This example shows that when it comes to pensions that are managed by counterparties there is little control on the part of the savers. Governments and businesses have the power to decimate a lifetime of contributions in a matter of moments.

In a recent study the World Economic Forum declared a Western pension crisis. They said one of the few ways it could be managed was for individuals to ‘take responsibility to manage [their] pensions’.

It is vital that individuals take responsibility for their pensions. You must ask questions about it as soon as possible.

Particularly, you should ask if you can invest in gold as part of your pension. Internationally, the trend for doing this is extremely low which is surprising given the role it has played in preserving and growing pension wealth.

Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev, formerly an adviser to GoldCore, says the following about the importance of having gold in your pension:

“Gold is a long-term risk management asset, not a speculative one.

As such it should be analysed and treated predominantly in the context of its role as a part of a properly structured, risk-balanced and diversified portfolio spanning the full life-cycle of the investment and pension horizon for individual investors and those with pensions.

Whether they be SIPPs in the UK or IRAs in the USA.”

Gold in a SPIPP or IRA is not held hostage to a change in government policy or a CEOs reckless spending of company finances. It is there to act as a safe haven against such events.

Investors in the UK and Ireland, the US, the EU can invest in gold bullion in their pension, through self-administered pension funds.

UK investors can invest in gold bullion through their Self-Invested Personal Pensions (SIPPs), Irish investors can invest in gold in  Small Self Administered Schemes (SSAS) and US investors can invest in gold in their Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs).

The pension crisis is a multi-trillion dollar/pound crisis. It is not going to go away. Adding gold to your pension is a key way to protect yourself against the economic inequality facing many future retirees.

Related reading

Pension Crisis And Deficit of £2.6 Billion At Carillion To Impact UK Pensions

UK Pensions Risk – Time to Rebalance and Allocate to Cash and Gold

UK Pensions and Debt Time Bomb: £1 Trillion Crisis Looms

News and Commentary

Stocks in Japan, South Korea surge on news of Trump-Kim meeting (MarketWatch.com)

Stocks Rise in Asia on Trump-Kim Summit; Yen Drops (Bloomberg.com)

Gold dips as dollar firms amid hopes for easing U.S.-N.Korea tensions (Reuters.com)

Stocks, Bonds Rise as Trump Signs Off on Tariffs (Bloomberg.com)

U.S. Household Debt Rose Last Quarter at Fastest Rate Since 2007 (Bloomberg.com)


Image source: Bloomberg

Hugo Salinas Price: Without trade deficits, U.S. dollar can’t be world reserve currency (Plata.com.mx)

Reuters exclusive: Five banks open up trillion-dollar gold club (Reuters.com)

Trump’s Historic Bet on Kim Summit Shatters Decades of Orthodoxy (Bloomberg.com)

ECB Assumes Final QE Push Totaling 30 Billion Euros (Bloomberg.com)

Hungarian National Bank Decides to Bring Gold Reserves Back Home (HungaryToday.hu)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

09 Mar: USD 1,319.35, GBP 955.21 & EUR 1,072.50 per ounce
08 Mar: USD 1,325.40, GBP 955.08 & EUR 1,070.39 per ounce
07 Mar: USD 1,332.50, GBP 960.07 & EUR 1,071.86 per ounce
06 Mar: USD 1,324.95, GBP 957.01 & EUR 1,074.00 per ounce
05 Mar: USD 1,326.30, GBP 958.78 & EUR 1,075.63 per ounce
02 Mar: USD 1,316.75, GBP 955.70 & EUR 1,071.04 per ounce
01 Mar: USD 1,311.25, GBP 953.80 & EUR 1,075.75 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

09 Mar: USD 16.49, GBP 11.92 & EUR 13.40 per ounce
08 Mar: USD 16.48, GBP 11.89 & EUR 13.31 per ounce
07 Mar: USD 16.65, GBP 12.01 & EUR 13.42 per ounce
06 Mar: USD 16.62, GBP 11.96 & EUR 13.41 per ounce
05 Mar: USD 16.51, GBP 11.95 & EUR 13.42 per ounce
02 Mar: USD 16.45, GBP 11.92 & EUR 13.36 per ounce
01 Mar: USD 16.32, GBP 11.87 & EUR 13.39 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– London Property Sees Brave Bet By Norway As Foxtons Profits Plunge
– Gold Does Not Fear Interest Rate Hikes
– RaboDirect Closing – Gold May Protect From Irish Banks Going “Belly Up Again” – Finuncane
– Silver bullion will likely outperform gold bullion going forward
– Gold $10,000? Goldnomics Podcast Quotations and Transcript
– Trump Risks Trade and Currency Wars – Protectionism and Economic War Loom
– Four Key Themes To Drive Gold Prices In 2018 – World Gold Council
– Is The Gold Price Going To $10,000? (Goldnomics Podcast 3)
– Gold Corridor From Dubai to China Sought By China
– Digital Gold Provide the Benefits Of Physical Gold?
– Weekly Briefing: Currency Wars – ECB Warns Re Trump, Russia and Turkey Buy Gold and BOE Bitcoin Warning
– Russian Central Bank Buys Gold – 600,000 Ounces Or 18.7 Tons In January As Venezuela Launches ‘Petro Gold’
– Bitcoin or British Pound ‘Pretty Much Failed’ As Currency?

janskoyles

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

Andrew Maguire

2:57 PM (1 hour ago)
to me

Harvey

Here It is my friend!  https://kinesis.money/#/ Please let everyone know.

Let catch up on Monday if you have time. We have billions in the hopper ready to be allocated on the 1st day of trading. The paper market days are over.

Warm regards

Andy

end.

THE FOLLOWING CAME FROM KOOS JANSEN:

YOU WILL NOTE THAT FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER CHINA EXPORTED GOLD TO LONDON.

THE QUESTION IS WHY?

I ASKED MY GOOD FRIEND  REG HOWE FOR HIS THOUGHTS ON THIS AND WE AGREE THAT THERE ARE TWO POSSIBILITIES:  1) THAT THERE IS EXTREME SHORTAGE IN LONDON AND A MAJOR BANK COULD NOT DELIVER UPON ALONG OVER THERE..  CHINA WOULD BE ASKING FOR A BIG QUID PRO QUO FOR PROVIDING THE NECESSARY PHYSICAL.  (IT MAKES SENSE IN THE FACT THAT GOLD IS IN BACKWARDATION IN LONDON)

2. TO HELP IN THE FACILITATION OF THE NEW OIL FOR YUAN FOR GOLD NEW FORMAT OR SOME FUTURE MEASURE THAT CHINA WILL REQUIRE OR AT LEAST BENEFIT FROM ADDITION PHYSICAL LIQUIDITY IN LONODN..

REGARDLESS, IT SHOWS SCARCITY OVER THERE.

FROM REG HOWE TO ME:

“Have read speculation that it may have to do with the mechanics of settling the new oil and gold contracts in physical.  More generally, I would guess it’s one of two things: (1) Chinese help in containing some serious stress in the gold market due to lack of physical, e.g., some central bank or major bullion bank unable to deliver, in which case there is likely a big quid pro quo; or (2) a positioning to facilitate some (other) future measure by China that will require or at least benefit from additional physical liquidity in London. In any event, seems to be more evidence of severe shortage of physical in London, otherwise they would just buy it there at today’s suppressed prices.”

END

Ronan Manly is seeing what I am seeing:  delays in reporting.  He comments that the LBMA will delay reporting on the gold and silver price auction

Manly writes: “It must be obvious to everyone that the LBMA and its bullion bank members do not want the transparency that gold and silver trade reporting would provide. Otherwise they would not have spent four years on a project that any individual investment bank could start and complete within less than three months.”

(courtesy RonanManly/Bullionstar)

Ronan Manly: LBMA stalls daily gold and silver price auction fix reports

 Section: 

12:02p ET Thursday, March 8, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The London Bullion Market Association, gold researcher Ronan Manly discloses today, has stopped providing timely reports of the daily gold and silver auction price fixes and has against postponed its plans to publish trade data about the monetary metals.

Manly writes: “It must be obvious to everyone that the LBMA and its bullion bank members do not want the transparency that gold and silver trade reporting would provide. Otherwise they would not have spent four years on a project that any individual investment bank could start and complete within less than three months.”

Manly’s report is headlined “LBMA Alchemy and the London Gold and Silver Markets: 2 Steps Back” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/lbma-alchemy-london-gold-m…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

A very good commentary today from Hugo Salinas Price who correctedly states that if the uSA seeks to remove its trade deficits with the rest of the world, then it will no longer be the reserve currency of the world. He concludes that the only replacement  will be gold.

(courtesy Hugo Salinas Price)

Hugo Salinas Price: Without trade deficits, U.S. dollar can’t be world reserve currency

 Section: 

1:04p ET Thursday, March 8, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Hugo Salinas Price, president of the Mexican Civic Association for Silver, remarking on President Trump’s tariffs and potential trade war to eliminate the trade deficits of the United States, notes today that no country can issue the world reserve currency without running trade deficits to spread its currency throughout the world.

Salinas Price writes: “So the exorbitant privilege of the United States, the production of the world’s fundamental currency — which allows it to purchase anything in any amount, in any place, at any price — produces automatically the fundamental need of foreign countries to undersell U.S. producers.”

If the dollar is no longer to be the world reserve currency, Salinas Price concludes, the only replacement will be gold.

His analysis is headlined “Bad Karma Brings Bad Consequences for Those Who Practice It” and it’s posted at the silver association’s internet site here:

http://plata.com.mx/enUS/More/346?idioma=2

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END


 _____________________________________________________________________________________

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

 

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP 6.3365  /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 18.76 POINTS OR 0.57%  / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 341.69 POINTS OR 1.11%
2. Nikkei closed UP 101.13 POINTS OR 0.47% /USA: YEN RISESS TO 106.82/  

3. Europe stocks OPENED DEEPLY IN THE RED     /USA dollar index RISES TO 90.255/Euro FALLS TO 1.2298

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO . +.053/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.82/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 60.58  and Brent: 64.25

3f Gold DOWN/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.648%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.989% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.422%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.183?????????????????

3k Gold at $1318.25 silver at:16.45     7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 15/100 in roubles/dollar) 56.95

3m oil into the 60 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.82 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9511 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1696 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.648%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.877% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 3.1457% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

US Futures Tread Water Ahead Of “Average Hourly Earnings” Report

After a barrage of breaking, surprise headlines and geopolitical developments, markets fall back to the familiar rhythm of trading the monthly payrolls (+205K exp), or rather, the far more important average hourly earnings (+2.8% Y/Y exp.) report. This morning, global shares hit a one-week high before easing a touch, as caution ahead of jobs data, and a potential disappointment in wage inflation outweighed a potential breakthrough in nuclear tensions over the Korean peninsula.

As a result, futures are somewhat mixed, with Asia trading higher, while Europe started off on the back foot but has recovered losses. The MSCI All-Country World index was 0.1% higher and set for a weekly gain of almost 2%.

As is traditionally the case ahead of payrolls, S&P futures have hugged the flatline.

Gains came mostly from Asian stocks which staged sharp rallies after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was prepared to meet North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, potentially marking a major breakthrough in nuclear tensions between the two countries. The summit news overshadowed a warning from China that it will take “strong” measures to counter U.S. trade tariffs.

“While it is easy to be cynical, one can’t help feeling these talks could well go the same way as previous attempts. But nonetheless it will be interesting to see how this one plays out,” said Michael Hewson, chief markets analyst at CMC Markets.

Commenting on Trump’s two main announcement this week, one desk had the following interestinh commentary:

President Trump must be delighted that his policies are paying off. His bellicose tweets have brought North Korea to the negotiating table and his use of cold war steel tariffs is effectively an invitation for trading partners to make him their best offer in order to secured tariff exemption. A weaker dollar is clearly part of Trump’s protectionist agenda as well and we believe investors will be looking to sell into any near-term dollar rallies.

As previewed, the market now will focus onto today’s employment report in the US. The consensus is for a 205k February payrolls number, which follows 200k in January. The unemployment rate is expected to dip to 4.0% from 4.1%. But it’s the average hourly earnings print which is the bigger component focus for the market right now given the obsession with inflation. The market forecasts a +0.2% mom print (which should lower than annual rate by one-tenth to +2.8% yoy, driven by base effects).

Going into payrolls, Asian stocks were higher across the board after the lead from US where Trump confirmed aluminium and steel tariffs, but exempted NAFTA partners and was also said to be open to providing relief for allies. In addition, Asia-Pac risk appetite was further bolstered by geopolitical developments in which the South Korean National Security Office chief announced that North Korean Leader Kim is committed to denuclearization and will refrain from conducting further tests, with President Trump and North Korea’s Kim to meet by May.

Overnight, in its latest announcement, the BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged  as expected with NIRP held at -0.1% and 10yr JGB yield target at around 0%. The decision was made by 8-1 vote with board member Kataoka the sold dissenter, who called for the BoJ to buy JGBs so 10yr yields or longer drop further and repeated that the BoJ should clarify it will ease further if domestic factors delay reaching price target. At the post-meeting press conference, Governor Kuroda faced a barrage of questions about the so-called exit from the current monetary easing scheme, but according to Goldman, the governor damped expectations for the exit for the foreseeable future. In fact, Goldman adds, and we agree, that it will be difficult for the BOJ to normalize interest rates before the impact of the next consumption tax hike, slated for October 2019, has run its course, given the weakness of upward pricing pressures and the strong intentions of the government.

Australia’s ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) were positive but with upside capped by a subdued commodities sector and weakness across steel names on Trump tariffs, while KOSPI (+1.0%) outperformed on the further appeasement in the Korean peninsula. Not helping the growth narrative was China’s CPI which came in blistering hot, surging 2.9%, or the most in 5 years. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.1%) was underpinned amid the broad positivity in the region, while the Shanghai Composite (+0.6%) somewhat lagged after PBoC inaction led to a net weekly drain of CNY 240bln.

Also overnight, outgoing PBOC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said market-access reforms should be accelerated and that the world’s second-largest economy “can be bolder in opening up”; Deputy Governor Yi Gang said stable progress will be made on capital-account convertibility.

Other key Chinese data:

  • Chinese CPI (Feb) Y/Y 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 1.5%); highest in over 4 years. (Newswires)
  • Chinese PPI (Feb) Y/Y 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 4.3%)
  • Chinese New Yuan Loans (CNY)(Feb) 839B vs. Exp. 900B (Prev. 2900B). (Newswires)
  • Chinese Aggregate Financing (CNY)(Feb) 1.17tln vs. Exp. 1.07tln (Prev. 3.06tln)
  • Chinese Money Supply M2 (Feb) Y/Y 8.8% vs. Exp. 8.7% (Prev. 8.6%)

Chinese commodities were hit hard by the jump in inflation and trade war announcement, with iron ore plunging 5%, now down 14% from February peak; steel rebar futures -7.8% this week in Shanghai, on course for biggest slump in a year.

DCE Iron Ore

European equities erased earlier losses before edging higher, chasing gains in the U.S. and Asia as the U.S. non-farm payrolls report draws near. Automakers remain underperformers as trade-related concerns linger. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was fractionally higher (+0.1%) and heading for a weekly advance of 2.6%. GVC Holdings is one of the best performers on the gauge after the company said it made a strong start to 2018. Lagardere drags media shares to the worst industry group performance after posting weaker-than-expected full-year results.  German Jan. ind. production fell 0.1% m/m; est. +0.6% m/m. U.K. February retail sales drop as BDO sees more ‘casualties.’

In global macro, the overnight narrative was dominated by the yen and the Norwegian krone, with the USDJPY jumping after Trump agreed to meet Kim Jong Un in an unprecedented summit; meanwhile, Norway’s headline inflation print beat every single estimate and came in higher than the central bank’s newly reduced target, providing fodder to krone bulls. The EUR/USD dropped below 1.2300, while MXN and CAD among the strongest major currencies after Mexico and Canada’s tariff exemption. Asia’s emerging currencies were mixed as concern over U.S. metals tariffs and possible retaliation from other nations was offset by news of the first ever meeting between the leaders of the U.S. and North Korea.

Meanwhile, few investors sought the safety of Treasuries ahead of February’s non-farm payrolls data. Treasury yields rise across the curve, led by 7Y-10Y sector. Core euro-area bonds extend losses as traders build concession ahead of large supply next week.

In the commodities complex, WTI and Brent crude futures remain in close proximity to yesterday’s lows with energy newsflow relatively light ahead of today’s Baker Hughes rig count. In metals markets, spot gold remains modestly softer after yesterday’s sell-off with prices suffering from an apparent easing in geopolitical tensions. Chinese steel futures were pushed to their lowest level since November as domestic producers call on the Chinese government to increase its efforts in retaliating to Trump’s tariff plans whilst sentiment also hampered for copper prices which were seen at their lowest level since September 2017.

Expected data include non-farm payrolls, unemployment and wholesale inventories. Big Lots and American Woodmark are among companies reporting earnings. The Fed’s Evans (1.40pm, 3.45pm and 5.45pm GMT)  and Rosengren (5.40pm GMT) are both expected to speak on monetary policy and the outlook following the report so that’s worth also keeping an eye on.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,744.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 376.93
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 175.49
  • MXAPJ up 0.6% to 579.41
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 21,469.20
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,715.48
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 30,996.21
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,307.17
  • Sensex down 0.3% to 33,266.66
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 5,963.23
  • Kospi up 1.1% to 2,459.45
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.0 bps to 0.648%
  • Euro up 0.02% to $1.2314
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 4.1 bps to 1.728%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.0 bps to 1.428%
  • Brent futures up 0.6% to $63.96/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,319.11
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 90.23

Top Overnight News

  • Trump hailed “great progress” in talks with North Korea. While a South Korean official said the meeting would take place by May, the White House indicated no timing has been set
  • U.S. slapped a 25% tariff on steel imports and 10% on aluminum on Thursday. The U.S. excluded Mexico and Canada, a concession that will remain in place as long as they reach agreement on a new North American Free Trade Agreement that meets U.S. satisfaction
  • People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said market-access reforms should be accelerated and that the world’s second-largest economy “can be bolder in opening up”; Deputy Governor Yi Gang said stable progress will be made on capital- account convertibility.
  • Data released Friday showed Chinese consumer inflation climbed 2.9% in February, beating a forecast of 2.5%
  • President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are being forced to put their political muscle into the race for a Pennsylvania House seat that should be theirs for the taking; it would be an embarrassing defeat for the president and yet another sign of a weakened GOP heading into the November midterm elections that will decide control of Congress
  • U.K. officials don’t expect to clinch a Brexit deal until two months before exit day, in March 2019, increasing the chances of chaos for executives and lawmakers
  • While news on the tariff exemption and Korean talks were seen as positive, analysts and investors said they’re waiting on follow-through actions on the summit and possible trade measures from other countries
  • The Bank of Japan stayed the course with its monetary stimulus
  • U.K. officials don’t expect to clinch a Brexit deal by the end of the year and privately think January is the real deadline to get an accord in time for exit day, according to people familiar with the negotiations

Asian stocks were higher across the board after the positive lead from US where on one hand President Trump confirmed aluminium and steel tariffs, but exempted NAFTA partners and was also said to be open to providing relief for allies. In addition, Asia-Pac risk appetite was further bolstered by geopolitical developments in which the South Korean National Security Office chief announced that North Korean Leader Kim is committed to denuclearization and will refrain from conducting further tests, with President Trump and North Korea’s Kim to meet by May. ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) were positive but with upside capped by a subdued commodities sector and weakness across steel names on Trump tariffs, while KOSPI (+1.0%) outperformed on the further appeasement in the Korean peninsula. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.1%) was underpinned amid the broad positivity in the region, while Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) somewhat lagged after PBoC inaction led to a net weekly drain of CNY 240bln, while participants also digested US tariffs alongside mixed Chinese lending and inflation data. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with markets focused on riskier assets and after an uneventful BoJ announcement. The PBoC skipped open market operations for a net weekly drain of CNY 240bln vs. last week’s CNY 120bln net injection.

Overnight, outgoing PBoC Governor Zhou said China’s economy will be less reliant on quantitative stimulus and that China may reduce reliance on money supply to boost growth. Responding to Trump’s tariffs, China Mofcom said it firmly opposes US trade measures and urged the US to withdraw tariffs on steel and aluminium, while it added it will take strong measures to safeguard its own interests.

Other Chinese data:

  • Chinese CPI (Feb) Y/Y 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 1.5%); highest in over 4 years. (Newswires)
  • Chinese PPI (Feb) Y/Y 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 4.3%)
  • Chinese New Yuan Loans (CNY)(Feb) 839B vs. Exp. 900B (Prev. 2900B). (Newswires)
  • Chinese Aggregate Financing (CNY)(Feb) 1.17tln vs. Exp. 1.07tln (Prev. 3.06tln)
  • Chinese Money Supply M2 (Feb) Y/Y 8.8% vs. Exp. 8.7% (Prev. 8.6%)

The BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged as expected with NIRP held at -0.1% and 10yr JGB yield target at around 0%. The decision was made by 8-1 vote with board member Kataoka the dissenter, who called for the BoJ to buy JGBs so 10yr yields or longer drop further and repeated that the BoJ should clarify it will ease further if domestic factors delay reaching price target.

Top Asian News

  • HNA Unloads More Land in Hong Kong as Selling Spree Picks Up
  • Indonesia Orders Coal Price Cut to Shield Power Producers
  • Diabetes Drug Developer Hua Is Said to Pick Hong Kong for IPO
  • BOJ Keeps Stimulus Unchanged Ahead of New Term for Kuroda
  • China Looks to Claw Back $1.4 Trillion in Lost Tech Listings

European bourses have seen a tame start to the session as is often the case during pre-NFP trade (Eurostoxx 50 -0.2%) with EU stocks not joining in on the gains seen overnight that came amid potential reprieve for US allies on the tariff front and a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions. Sector specific performance has been relatively broad-based thus far with some slight underperformance in material names following price action seen overnight in the metals complex. In terms of individual movers, GVC (+3.1%) leads the Stoxx 600 following their latest earnings report with Lagardere the laggard (-6.4%) after their earnings statement was met with a cold reception by the market.

Top European News

  • U.K. Industry Output Jumps Amid Oil Rebound, Record Factory Run
  • German Economic Momentum Moderates as Production, Exports Slip
  • Czech Inflation Dips Under Target as Central Bank Halts on Rates
  • Rotate Out of European Tech and Into Financials, UBS Says

In FX, USD majors are broadly split down the middle as the safer-havens underperform on latest US-NK developments and further signs that President Trump is willing to approach import tariffs on a country by country basis. Usd/Jpy has now broken free from its recent 106.00 anchor to the upside, above 106.50 and through the 20 DMA around 106.75-80, but could be contained by hefty option expiries within a new 106.50-107.00 range (1.2 bn and 3.8 bn respectively), with the upper end not just more alluring due to the size of interest at the strike, but also perhaps compelling if US jobs data is strong (wages especially). Usd/Chf is testing 0.9500, while Eur/Usd is trading either side of the 1.2300 handle and remaining lower after Thursday’s sharp reversal from initial postECB/Draghi presser peaks. In terms of tech analysis, 1.2334 seems to be capping the upside (21 DMA), while support is seen down at 1.2245 and there is also big expiry interest in close proximity with 1.8 bn running off at 1.2300 and 2.3 bn at 1.2350. The Loonie is amongst the G10 outperformers and back below 1.2900 vs the Greenback after Canada (and Mexico) got an indefinite exemption from steel and aluminium taxes pending NAFTA negotiations. However, today’s employment report offers plenty of scope for independent impetus and there are some decent option expiries that could come into play around 1.2815-25 (1.1 bn) and 1.3000 (1.6 bn). Elsewhere, Eur/Nok dropped (to sub-9.600) on stronger than expected Norwegian inflation data, with headline CPI above the new 2% target level just ahead of next week’s policy meeting. Looking at the Dollar Index, yesterday’s close above the 21 DMA at 89.820 bodes well for further recovery gains and a breach of the topside from the current circa 90.100-300 range.

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures remain in close proximity to yesterday’s lows with energy newsflow
relatively light ahead of today’s Baker Hughes rig count. In metals markets, spot gold remains modestly softer after yesterday’s sell-off with prices suffering from an apparent easing in geopolitical tensions. Chinese steel futures were pushed to their lowest level since November as domestic producers call on the Chinese government to increase its efforts in retaliating to Trump’s tariff plans whilst sentiment also hampered for copper prices which were seen at their lowest level since September 2017

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 205,000, prior 200,000
  • Unemployment Rate, est. 4.0%, prior 4.1%
    • Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
    • Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.9%
    • Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.4, prior 34.3
    • Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.7%, prior 62.7%
  • 10:00am: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior 1.2%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7%

Central Banks:

  • 8:40am: Fed’s Evans live TV interview
  • 10:45am: Fed’s Evans live TV interview
  • 12:40pm: Fed’s Rosengren Speaks on Outlook
  • 12:45pm: Fed’s Evans Speaks on Monetary Policy

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I spent the last night before holidays at a big DB macro dinner with most people fixated about rates, inflation, and risks to the dollar weakness view. The risks to growth due to a China slowdown did come up a few times as well which it hadn’t as much at previous similar events I’ve been at. Usually at these dinners there tends to be quite consensual themes running through the core of it. However there didn’t seem to be high conviction last night. It’s seems a combination of the vol shock, the subsequent recovery, confusion about whether yields have peaked for now and Trump’s tariff plan have left conviction low.

Before the dinner, Deutsche Bank held its 8th annual Global Bank Capital Forum in London. Every year, it brings together major investors, issuers and senior regulators to discuss the latest market and regulatory developments in banking. This year, the event was attended by 120 investors and 70 representatives of banks from Europe, North America and APAC. The keynote address was delivered by William Coen, Secretary General of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, and the closing speech was given by Stanley Fischer, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2014-2017.

Moving on to today, it’s the 9th anniversary of the closing low for the S&P 500 from the GFC. How time flies. In the PDF today we show our usual performance review chart for this period. There’s also some accompanying text further down the page to mark this occasion. Today is also payrolls day and in particular we’ll get the next instalment of the averagely hourly earnings saga that last month created mayhem in financial markets (full preview below). Ahead of that we’ve just had news of the BoJ policy meeting where members voted 8-1 to keep its yield curve settings and asset purchases unchanged while the statement reiterated that inflation expectations have been “more or less unchanged”. We shall hopefully learn more from Governor Kuroda’s press conference at 3:30pm local time which is just before our note goes to print.

The other big news this morning – that could lead to lower geopolitical risks – is that the US and North Korean leaders may meet for the first time after the South Korean National Security Council Chief Chung Eui-yong said North Korean leader Kim Jong Un “expressed his eagerness to meet President Trump as soon as possible”, while Trump said he would meet Kim “by May to achieve permanent denuclearization” by the North. In Asia, markets have pared back larger gains but remain higher with the Nikkei (+0.48%), Kospi (+0.92%), Hang Seng (+0.87%) and China’s CSI 300  (+0.55%) all up. Elsewhere, China’s departing PBOC Governor Zhou noted that “when we’re pursuing quality-oriented (economic) growth, we’ll depend less heavily on the credit-base growth model”. Datawise, China’s February CPI was above market at 2.9% yoy (vs. 2.5% expected) while the PPI moderated further to 3.7% yoy (vs. 3.8% expected).

The BoJ this morning follows a market moving ECB meeting yesterday where hawkish language was spun dovishly by Draghi in the press conference leading to a big round trip for the Euro and Government bonds. In terms of language, the most significant development yesterday was the ECB dropping the pledge to increase the asset purchase programme if needed following the policy meeting. Specifically the March statement removed the sentence “if the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the Governing Council stands ready to increase the asset purchase programme (APP) in terms of size and/or duration”. While a change to the easing guidance was expected, the complete removal rather than toning down or change in reaction function was a bit more of a surprise to markets.

To be fair the press conference wasn’t hugely eventful but markets reacted in a way which suggested a more dovish Draghi. When questioned on the dropping of the pledge to increase stimulus Draghi said that it was long overdue (a way of perhaps downplaying the language) and also unanimous across the council. He confirmed that the removal reflects the fact that stimulus is an “unlikely contingency now” and emphasised the improved economic backdrop now compared to 2016 when guidance was initially tinkered. Away from that, there wasn’t much change in staff economic  forecasts. For growth, GDP was revised up one-tenth to 2.4% for 2018 and left unchanged in 2019 and 2020 at 1.9% and 1.7% respectively. For inflation, CPI was left unchanged in 2018 at 1.4%, revised down one-tenth in 2019 to 1.4% and left unchanged in 2020 at 1.7%. Unsurprisingly the recent escalation in tariffs and protectionist rhetoric was bought up with Draghi saying that “we are convinced that disputes should be discussed and resolved in a multilateral framework and unilateral decisions are dangerous”. He also confirmed that the ECB would assess the response of the exchange rate on the tariff discussion”.

The price action through the press conference is a little challenging to explain but clearly Draghi’s words and tone had a massive impact on changing the interpretation of the hawkish initial announcement. Indeed euro and bond yields first rose while equities sold-off however by the time Draghi was finished speaking much of those moves had fully reversed, before accelerating further in that direction into the European close. By the end of play, the euro had weakened -0.80% with a post meeting high to low range between 1.2298 and 1.2446. 10y Bunds finished 2.8bps lower at 0.625% with a post ECB range between 0.6236% and 0.700%. The ranges on BTPs and Spanish Bonds were 9bps and 8bps respectively. That weaker euro helped the likes of the Stoxx 600 and DAX to +1.05% and +0.90% respectively, as it gained from being broadly unchanged before Draghi spoke.

In the US the S&P 500 fluctuated before ending +0.45% higher and Treasuries -2.6bps lower to 2.858%. Overnight, President Trump has signed a proclamation authorising a levy of 25% duty on imported steel and 10% on aluminium, with the tariffs to take effect in 15 days. He has also warned of more “reciprocal taxes” on imports from countries that charge higher duties on US goods. That said, the market seemed to have taken some comfort that Canada and Mexico is exempt from the tariffs due to their status as key regional allies and Trump’s comments of “…we’re going to be very flexible” and that “I’ll have a right to (go) up or down (on the level of tariffs) depending on the country and I’ll have a right to drop out or add countries…” In terms of initial reactions, House Speak Ryan noted “I disagree with this action and fear its unintended consequences” while Senator Flake noted the so-called flexible tariffs are a marriage of two lethal poisons to economic growth – protectionism and uncertainty.

So with the central banks now out of the way the market divert its focus onto this afternoon’s employment report in the US. The consensus is for a 205k February payrolls number, which follows 200k in January. Our economists are slightly below the market at 185k, which they still expect will be enough to drive down the unemployment rate to 4.0% from 4.1% (market also expects a 4.0% reading). Arguably it’s the average hourly earnings print which is the bigger component focus for the market right now given the obsession with inflation. Both the market and our economists forecast a +0.2% mom print (which should lower than annual rate by one-tenth to +2.8% yoy, driven by base effects). Keep an eye on the data due out at 1.30pm GMT. The Fed’s Evans (1.40pm, 3.45pm and 5.45pm GMT)  and Rosengren (5.40pm GMT) are both expected to speak on monetary policy and the outlook following the report so that’s worth also keeping an eye on.

Finally onto Brexit. The EU Council President Tusk noted that “if in London someone assumes that the negotiations will deal with other issues first, before moving to the Irish (border) issue, my response would be – Ireland first”. DB’s Oliver Harvey believes that this is a negative and if agreement on Ireland has to happen before transition then the chance of getting to a transition deal this month are low. Notably, unnamed UK officials told Bloomberg that they now don’t expect a full Brexit deal by the end of the year.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the weekly initial jobless claims rose from last weeks’ 48 year low and was higher than expected at 231k (vs. 220k), while continuing claims was below market (1,870k vs. 1,919k expected). Elsewhere, a Fed report showed US household debt jumped 5.2% in 4Q, the fastest pace of this expansion while net worth rose $2.1trn to $98.7trn. Over in Europe, Germany’s January factory orders fell more than expected at -3.9% mom (vs. -1.8% expected) but annual growth was still solid at 8.2% yoy (vs 11.5% expected). The February Bank of France industry sentiment index was slightly above at 105 (vs. 104 expected) while the UK’s February RICS survey noted respondents had on net seen no change in home prices over the past three months and there was little expectation of change over the next three months.

Looking at the day ahead, January trade data in Germany will be due along with January industrial production reports for Germany, France and the UK. In the US, the aforementioned February employment report will be out. Following that report, the Fed’s Rosengren and Evans will speak as mentioned earlier.

end

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/LATE THURSDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 18.76 POINTS OR 0.57% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 341.69 POINTS OR 1.11% / The Nikkei closed UP 101.13 POINTS OR 0.47%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.37%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.3365/Oil DOWN to 60.58 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.25 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED EXCEPT PARIS CAC  .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.3365 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3360 /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR . CHINA IS NOT VERY  HAPPY TODAY (STRONGER CURRENCY GOOD CHINESE MARKETS/BUT TRUMP TARIFFS  INITIATED/ ) 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

/NORTH KOREA/USA

Not so fast! Before Trump is to meet North Korea must take “concrete actions”

let us see what Kim Jung Un does

(courtesy zerohedge)

Not So Fast: White House Says North Korea Must Take “Concrete Actions” Before Trump-Kim Meeting

When Trump triumphantly accepted the invitation to meet with Kim Jong-Un last night, verbally delivered to the White House by the South Korean delegation, it almost seemed that peace on earth was about to break out after what would otherwise be one of the greatest diplomatic breakthroughs in recent US history. More importantly, the meeting between Trump and Kim, tentatively scheduled “before May”, appeared to have no conditions attached to it.

That changed on Friday afternoon, when White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said that the U.S. will require North Korea to take “concrete and verifiable steps” before President Trump attends an announced sit down with Kim Jong Un.

White House press secretary Sarah Sanders says President Trump won’t meet with Kim Jong Un “until we see concrete actions that match the words and the rhetoric of North Korea” http://cnn.it/2p2Uyif 

This is a notable development as the White House had not previously suggested said that there would be any “string attached” for the talks to take place in the next month.

“This meeting won’t take place without concrete actions that match the promises that have been made by North Korea,” Sanders said. However, as on Thursday, Sanders did not specify what promises must be kept or what steps North Korea must take for the planned meeting to go through.

According to the South Korean delegation, Kim was prepared to suspend his ballistic missile tests in the hopes of opening a dialogue. Perhaps the “condition” is only for Kim to keep his word, something he has not been very good at in the past: Sanders said Friday that they expect North Korea’s actions and rhetoric to be aligned if the president is to sit down with Kim.

When reporters pressed Sanders on whether it was possible that the meeting would fall through, she said that “a lot of things are possible,” and added that “I’m not going to walk through every hypothetical that could exist in the world. But I can tell you that the president has accepted that invitation on the basis that we have concrete and verifiable steps.”

In other words, as “tribute” Trump will demand a concession of good will, one which the Pyongyang dictator may not be willing to give, in the process unwinding all the alleged process achieved last night.

Meanwhile, Trump has insisted that sanctions would remain in place on North Korea until there is “permanent denuclearization” and the White House says that planned military exercises between the U.S. and South Korea will continue as planned. Additionally, administration officials have emphasized that the planned meeting falls short of official negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea.

And while it’s unclear whether the White House expects North Korea to begin the denuclearization process before or after the meeting takes place, today’s “footnote” suggests that some token actions will be required in advance of the meeting.

“Let’s not forget that the North Koreans did promise something — they promised to denuclearize, they have promised to stop nuclear and missile testing,” Sanders said.

“And they have recognized that we’re going to continue in our military exercises. Let’s be very clear. The United States has made zero concessions, but North Korea has made some promises. And again, this meeting won’t take place without concrete actions that match the promises that have been made by North Korea.”

The White House took credit for Kim’s willingness to negotiate, saying it was the result of its “maximum pressure” campaign on North Korea.

“For the first time in a long time, the United States is actually having conversations from a position of strength, not a position of weakness like the one that North Korea finds itself in,” Sanders said. “The president is getting exactly what he wants.”

For now, perhaps, but the president may lose it all in an instant if KCNA were to lob over an angry letter overnight saying that the invitation is off.

end
 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

Tepco now admits that its ICE WALL is failing.  Radiation is leaking through the water

(courtesy zerohedge)

TEPCO Admits Fukushima-Radiation-Blocking “Ice Wall” Is Failing

It has been nearly two-and-a-half years since TEPCO decided to give its “Game of Thrones”-inspired frozen water wall a second chance, despite initially experiencing difficulty getting the temperature low enough to freeze the ground water. At the time, we questioned their sanity, but pointed out that “wasting” tens of billions of yen on the project would, at the very least, help out the region’s badly damaged GDP…

…But today, with two years before the Tokyo Games, the Japanese utility company admitted to Reuters that the costly “ice wall” (more like an ice floor, it’s essentially a ground barrier consisting of frozen soil) is failing to stop groundwater from seeping into the ruined nuclear reactors at the ruined Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant.

Tepco

The wall’s failure, among other factors, is preventing the company from removing all of the radioactive melted fuel at the site, where one of the world’s worst-ever nuclear disasters unfolded seven years ago when a tsunami struck the area.

When the “ice wall” was announced in 2013, TEPCO assured skeptics that it would effectively limit the flow of groundwater into the plant’s basement, where the water becomes contaminated with radioactive debris.

But since the wall became fully operational in August 2017, an average of 141 metric tonnes of groundwater has seeped into the reactor and turbines each day – worse than the 132 metric tonnes a daythat seeped into the ruined plant during the nine months before the wall’s completion.

That’s far from the “nearly nothing” that TEPCO executives promised.

The unplanned groundwater seepage has delayed TEPCO’s clean-up at the site, the company said, and may undermine the entire decommissioning process for the plant, which the utility is tasked with cleaning up before the 2020 Olympics, though in reality, the process will likely take decades.

Tepco

Some of the 160,000 residents that were forced to flee after the disaster when the government declared an “exclusion zone” around the site are beginning to return to their former homes as the government has cut off their public assistance.

What people are finding is a ghost town overrun by radioactive boars.

As we pointed out, TEPCO’s options are apparently at an impasse: The company has lost several “swimming robots” inside the destroyed reactors. The robots were sent in to search for the melted nuclear core.

As Reuters explains, TEPCO sunk 34.5 billion yen ($324 million) in public funds into the project, which involved deploying 1,500 tubes filled with brine to a depth of 30 meters (100 feet) in a 1.5-kilometre (1-mile) perimeter around the plant’s four reactors. The plant then cools the brine to minus 30 degrees Celsius (minus 22 Fahrenheit). The goal is to freeze the soil into a solid mass.

What’s worse, the continuing seepage has created more toxic water that Tepco must pump out and store in cumbersome containers. The company says it will run out of space for the water by early 2021.

One nuclear regulator who spoke with Reuters said he believed the wall had been oversold..

“I believe the ice wall was ‘oversold’ in that it would solve all the release and storage concerns,” said Dale Klein, the former chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the head of an external committee advising Tepco on safety issues.

“The hydrology of the Fukushima site is very complicated and thus the exact water flow is hard to predict,” he said, “especially during heavy rains.”

Depending on the level of rain, the amount of water flowing into the ruined plant can fluctuate between 83 tons during a dry month to 866 during a typhoon.

A government panel blasted the ice wall on Wednesday, saying it was only partially effective. What’s worse, the ice wall was supposed to be a crucial element of Japan’s plan to show that it has the cleanup effort under control.

The failure is bad news for area fishermen, because the government’s only other viable solution appears to be emptying tritium-laced water into the Pacific Ocean – which has angered locals, and probably should anger the international community as well.

END

Bank of Japan leaves policy stance unchanged.  After September, they will be the last one standing per QE

(courtesy zerohedge)

BoJ Leaves Policy Stance Unchanged, Optimistic On Global Economy

Having briefly injected some anxiety into markets over reported comments last week about paring back easing in 2019 (which were swiftly denied), Kuroda is likely to err on the dovish side in his comments after BoJ left all monetary policy levers unchanged.

Consensus expectations are that the BOJ to leave all its key policy settings unchanged:

  • likely to keep the short-term rate at -0.1% and target for the 10-year JGB yield at around 0%
  • also likely to maintain the current pace of purchases of exchange-traded funds and real estate investment trusts
  • The BOJ is likely to retain its guideline on the annual pace of JGB accumulation at 80 trillion yen
  • Post-meeting comments by Kuroda are likely to be calibrated to avoid stoking upward pressure on the yen. That means he’s likely to avoid specifics if asked again about how or when the BOJ could manage an exit from extreme stimulus.

And that is what we got. All policy levers unchanged.

There was one dissenter – same as before – this guy not only wanted more NIRP, but also more QE, clearly unaware that the BOJ already owns more than half of all Japanese govt bonds.

  • BOJ Board Member Kataoka Votes Against Keeping Rates Unchanged
  • BOJ Kataoka: Should Take Additional Easing if Delay in Hitting Inflation Target
  • BOJ Kataoka: BOJ Should Lower Yields on JGBs of 10-Years and Longer

Language surrounding the global economy is more optimistic.

And don’t forget there lots of new faces on the BoJ…

For now, Kuroda has made clear the bank remains committed to powerful easing and will stay the course until the inflation target is met. Even though the economy grew better than expected in the fourth quarter, there’s no shortage of worry spots.

And as Bloomberg’s Chris Anstey concludes, all in all, very little change here, as we expected. The news on the BOJ, if any, today is going to come from Governor Kuroda’s press briefing this afternoon. The key questions there will be about his recent comments about starting to think about exiting from stimulus around next year.

Of course, do not forget, The BOJ’s purchases of exchange-traded funds have helped boost Japanese stocks. Bloomberg’s Min Jeong Lee and Nobuyuki Akama show the effects on the Nikkei 225 Stock Average against a history of the BOJ’s ETF buying.

Nikkei 225 jumped after-hours on the back of US-Korea headlines but that has all faded…

c) REPORT ON CHINA

Hong Kong:

We have been highlighting this story to you for the past few weeks as the Hong Kong dollar is floundering.  House prices are sky high. The problem is citizens are buying dollars with the higher yield than Hong Kong yields and that is putting pressure on their Hong Kong dollar

(courtesy zerohedge)

HKMA Urges “Stay Calm” As Hong Kong Dollar Plunges To 30 Year Lows

On the same day as Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) Chief Norman Chan urged citizens to “stay calm on the currency weakening,” the Hong Kong Dollar has plunged to its weakest in 33 years amid liquidity concerns and a global carry trade gone rogue.

The Hong Kong Dollar has been in free-fall for the last year (interrupted briefly in the middle of last year) but as its drop accelerated in recent days, HKMA wrote a blog to reassure the people that their paper-money is safe:

Stay calm on the weakening of the Hong Kong dollar

There have been concerns and discussions in the market about the recent weakening of the Hong Kong dollar (HKD).

Chan then goes to to answer some questions (but it seems his headline sparked some sudden selling)…

This is the weakest in 30 years and near the weaker end of the peg band (7.85/USD), but do not worry, Chan says:

“However, this should not cause any concerns, as the HKMA will take action when the HKD exchange rate touches the weak-side Convertibility Undertaking (7.85) to ensure that it will not fall below 7.85.

Question 3 caught our eye – If the HKMA is not concerned about the weakening of the HKD, why did it issue additional Exchange Fund bills when the HKD was weakening last year?  Was it intended to prevent the HKD from depreciating as suggested by some market players?

Good question.

His response:

This is not true.  The issuance of additional HK$80 billion worth of Exchange Fund bills by the HKMA last time was solely in response to market demand for highly liquid instruments and had nothing to do with the strengthening or weakening of the HKD.

We do not have plans to issue additional Exchange Fund bills for the time being and hope that market players will not take it wrongly that the HKMA does not want the HKD to weaken. 

In fact, with the widening of the spreads between HKD and USD interest rates, we are looking forward to funds flowing from the HKD into the USD, causing the HKD exchange rate to reach 7.85, a level where the HKMA will take action.  This will allow the Monetary Base to contract gradually and create an environment conducive to the normalisation of HKD interest rates.

Which – roughly translated from double-negative google translate into English – means…feel free to ride this trend lower, but at 7.85 we will unleash hell (maybe). Remember, under Hong Kong’s linked exchange rate system, the HKMA is mandated to sell US dollars at HK$7.85 when necessary to protect the peg.

What stands behind the Hong Kong dollar? How much can they intervene until it breaks (Soros-British Pound style)?

The Hong Kong dollar is backed by the HK$4 trillion (US$513.5 billion) Exchange Fund, one of the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves. The fund, established as an asset war chest for defending the currency’s value, also makes investments, earning a record HK$252 billion in 2017 income.

So who is to blame for the HKD’s sudden demise? Simple – The Fed! (and HKMA gave you the answer in the previous paragraph)

As SCMP details, the main culprit behind the local currency’s slump is the carry trade, an arbitrage whereby investors borrow low-yielding currencies to buy high-yielding currencies.

This is an arbitrage, where traders take advantage of differences in prices, selling a low-yielding product (the Hong Kong dollar) to buy a high-yielding product (the US dollar). In this case, the price difference is between the local borrowing cost known as the Hong Kong interbank offered rate (Hibor) and the US borrowing cost known as the Libor.

Simply put, traders are borrowing against the low Hibor, selling the Hong Kong dollar to buy the US currency for investments in high-yielding US assets. The difference between the two is widest since 2008.

As more traders pile on to the carry, more pressure is placed on the Hong Kong dollar, causing it to weaken further against the US currency… and The Fed’s plan to hike rates (as many as four times) will do nothing to help ease the situation – meaning any dollars sold in defense of the weaker HKD will be battling global carry trade flows driven by The Fed’s tightening.

Howard Lee, deputy chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, said on Tuesday that while the Hong Kong dollar had reached its weakest level in more than 30 years, this valuation was “well within the design of the system.”

“Since the global financial crisis, we have seen large amounts of funds flow into Hong Kong, and now we are seeing these same funds flow out,”

And in case you thought this was just something that geeky FX traders worry about, think again…

As SCMP reports, a leading Hong Kong chain store specialising in Japanese snacks and consumer goods has responded to the recent depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar by marking up its products by 3 to 5 per cent.

A strategy since put in place to minimise the impact of any exchange rate volatility had also backfired.

“After 2016 we tried to reduce the ratio of Japanese imports to about 30 per cent,”Lam said. “But the stores have lost their appeal for our loyal customers, most of whom are drawn to our line-up of Japanese snacks.”

One group of residents sensitive to a lower Hong Kong dollar would be the more than 300,000 foreign domestic helpers working in the city, who remit part of their wages back home every month.

But they should not worry as the value of the paper-money in their pockets evaporates… the central bank chief said “stay calm” remember

END

The yuan tumbled this morning on news that consumer prices are spiking the most in 5 years with food the chief culprit. This is worrisome to China

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Chinese Consumer Prices Spike Most In 5 Years As Food Costs Soar

Yuan is tumbling after Chinese Consumer prices spiked 2.9% YoY in February – the biggest jump in inflation since Nov 2013.

Consumer prices jumped 1.2% MoM and 2.9% YoY (considerably higher than the 2.5% jump expected).

The biggest driver of the price surge being food (something few can do without) which soared 4.4% – the biggest jump since June 2016.

On the other hand producer prices rose less than expected, up 3.7% YoY in Feb (vs 3.8% exp and 4.3% in Jan)…

With China’s credit impulse slowing (if not reversing) and food inflation soaring, we suggest those who are hoping for more easing from China (which is actively pitching itself as managing leverage and derisking) not hold their breath for too long.

And the Yuan is selling off…

China is threatening a tariff response that according to China could seriously hurt the international trade order
(courtesy zerohedge)

China Threatens Tariff Response That “Could Seriously Hurt The International Trade Order”

Despite President Donald Trump’s promises to “be flexible” for “friends” of the US when considering exemptions to the steel and aluminum tariffs that the he’s planning to impose in two weeks, China – the explicit target of the taxes – and the European Union are not at all pleased – and they’re threatening retaliation, per RT.

In a response to today’s announcement, China’s Commerce Industry urged the US to withdraw the planned-for tariffs while threatening to take “strong measures” that could “seriously hurt the international trade order.”

Kim

Adding insult to injury, President Trump boasted on twitter that trade wars are “good and easy to win,” triggering an outraged response from Donald Tusk, president of the European council, who responded, saying the truth is trade wars are “bad and easy to lose” and that the EU’s goal is to keep world trade alive and, if necessary, to protect Europeans  with a “proportionate response.”

When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore-we win big. It’s easy!

President Trump said: ‘trade wars are good and easy to win’. But the truth is trade wars are bad and easy to lose. EU’s goal is to keep world trade alive and if necessary to protect European by proportionate responses.

EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström said thousands of jobs would be in jeopardy because of Washington’s import tariffs. In response, Europeans have threatened to retaliate by targeting US products such as whiskey, peanut butter, orange juice and motorcycles in retaliation, a group of products that amounts to $3.5 billion in trade annually.

Earlier in the week, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned that trade wars “harm the initiator,” according to the Guardian.

“As for our trade frictions, history teaches that trade war is never the right solution. In a globalized world it is particularly unhelpful as it will harm the initiator as well as the target country,” China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said.

“Given today’s globalization, choosing a trade war is a mistaken prescription. The outcome will only be harmful,” he added on the sidelines of an annual meeting of the national parliament. “China would have to make a justified and necessary response.”

Beijing said nothing about how, exactly, it would retaliate for curbing its metals trade with the US, but, as RTreports, US products like soybeans, aircraft and cars present likely targets for counter-tariffs. However, China has previously used its economic heft to punish US allies. Last year, China lashed out at the South Korean tourism and retail industries after Seoul agreed to host American anti-ballistic missiles on its territory, a move that Beijing described as a threat to its national security.

While the US only imports a small percentage of its steel from China (if one looks at the official data), the country’s rapid growth and debt-fueled expansion of its industrial sector have caused a worldwide glut of steel thanks to trans-shipping (or cheating as Navarro and Trump would say).

South Korean officials also expressed regret at the US tariffs, adding that they would probably inhibit Korean steel exports. The US said it would make exceptions for Mexican and Canadian steel and aluminum while Nafta negotiations are ongoing…

Steel

The Japanese struck a more amenable tone, with Finance Minister Aso said he’d work to get Japanese companies excluded from the tariffs. Though he added that the measures are “extremely regrettable” and that they would have a “big effect” on the global economy, according to Bloomberg.

While Trump prepares to implement the “negotiable” tariffs, plenty of Republicans, Democrats and other critics in the domestic economy are doing everything they can to kill the tariffs. Several US states are also bracing for tariffs, including Connecticut and Louisiana, which are among the states that will be hit the hardest.

States

END

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Britain

It now seems that Britain’s largest charity Oxfam is a fraud with massive public money disappearing

(courtesy G Meotti/Gatestone Institute)

8. EMERGING MARKET

 end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.2298 DOWN .0009/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL IN THE RED EXCEPT PARIS  

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.82 UP  0.411 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/DEADLY UNWINDING OF YEN CARRY TRADE

GBP/USA 1.3824 UP .0022  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS/MAY IN TROUBLE WITH HER OWN PARTY/

USA/CAN 1.2874 DOWN .0022 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 28 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.2384; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 18.76  OR 0.57% /   Hang Sang CLOSED UP 341.69 POINTS OR 1.11%  /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.37% / EUROPEAN BOURSES   IN THE RED EXCEPT PARIS CAC 

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED UP 101.13 POINTS OR 0.47%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks OPENED ALL IN THE RED EXCEPT PARIS CAC 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 341.69 POINTS OR 1.11%  / SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.76 OR 0.57%   /

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.37% /

Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED UP 101.38 POINTS OR 0.47%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED 

Gold very early morning trading: 1319.45

silver:$16.47

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.877% !!! UP 2  IN POINTS from THURSDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/ 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.1457 UP 3  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early  FRIDAY morning: 90.255 UP 8  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.863% UP 4  in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.0.053% DOWN 1/10    in basis points yield from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.436% UP 3  IN basis point yield from THURSDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.011 UP 3 POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 57 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +.648%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2327 UP .0020 (Euro UP 20 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 106.78 UP 0.352 Yen DOWN 35 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3866 UP .0063( POUND UP 63 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2816 DOWN  .0080 Canadian dollar UP 80 Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $61.78

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This afternoon, the Euro was UP 20 to trade at 1.2327

The Yen FELL to 106.78 for a LOSS of 35 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND ROSE BY 63 basis points, trading at 1.3866/

The Canadian dollar ROSE by 80 basis points to 1.2816/ WITH WTI OIL RISING TO : $61.78

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.3344
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.053%  DOWN 1/10 BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 4 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.8940% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.152  UP 3    in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 90.02 DOWN 16 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED UP 21.27 POINTS OR 0.30%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 8.89 POINTS OR 0.07%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 20.30 POINTS OR 0.39%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 39.90 POINTS OR 0.41%

Italian MIB: CLOSED  UP 14.50 POINTS OR 0.06%

The Dow closed UP 440.53 POINTS OR 1.77%

NASDAQ WAS up 132.87 Points OR 1.79% 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 61.78 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 65.20 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 56.68 DOWN 41/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 41 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +.648% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$62.08

BRENT: $65.53

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.894%   THIS RAPID ASSENT IN YIELD IS VERY DANGEROUS/DERIVATIVES START TO BLOW UP/ 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.159%/BROKE GUNDLACH’S KEY 3.00% AGAIN WHERE ALL VALUATIONS ON STOCKS BLOW UP/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.2307 up .0005  (UP 5 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.78 UP 0.365/ YEN DOWN 37 BASIS POINTS/ very dangerous as yen carry traders are getting killed/yen continues to rise despite the NYSE rising.

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 90.11 DOWN 7 cent(s)/dangerous as the lower the dollar the higher the inflation.

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3851: UP 0.0049  (FROM LAST NIGHT UP 49 POINTS)

Canadian dollar: 1.2813 UP 82 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.648%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  14.64  CLOSED  down   1.90

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.07%  

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Stock Bulls Rejoice At Weak Wages, Cohn Exit, & Global Trade War

Spot the odd one out: Dow +700pts, USD Index unchanged, 30Y Yield unchanged, Gold unchanged.

Here’s one way to look at this week…

or another…

– Brought about world peace
– Saved the US steel and aluminium sector
– 313k NFP

…not a bad week for The Donald

No matter which you prefer, the stock market overwhelmingly endorsed a lack of wage growth, the start of a global trade war, and the exit of the last globalist from The White House…

From last Friday’s open, it’s been one way…

Who could have seen that coming?

Fresh record highs for the Nasdaq.

As Bloomberg  points out though, don’t be fooled by Saturday newspaper headlines which scream: “Booming Job Growth Sends Nasdaq to Record High.” Back in the financial pages there will also be a story worrying about the narrowness of the rally. An equal-weighted version of the Nasdaq 100 is not making a record high today, which only widens the gap with the modified cap-weighted index since Donald Trump’s election.

Just five stocks account for half of the 7.4% rally from the February 8 low to today’s all-time high in the Nasdaq 100. The five – in order of point contributions: Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Intel. Another way to look at it, 25% of companies in the index fell since the trough.

Investors rushed into safe-haven FANG Stocks (up 6.9% on the week)…

This chart from BofAML might suggest why – 2018 has started with the fastest inflows into tech stocks since the crisis…

It seems bank stocks don’t care about rates not moving or about Gary Cohn leaving The White House!!

The Dow closed at its Fib 61.8% retrace of the Feb-Flop… NOTE how The Dow is finding serious support/resistance at these key levels…

Today did not appear to be a short-squeeze as “Most Shorted” stocks flatlined as indices ripped higher…

VIX flash-crashed to a 13 handle intraday, perfectly tagging the 100DMA at 13.31, before bouncing back but still closing notably lower on the week…

Bloomberg notes that it appears an options trader dubbed the “Elephant” is responsible for the flash-crash as he returned to close out a portion of a March three-way trade. About 121.6k March $25 calls were bought for 25 cents, potentially closing a portion of a trade from Feb. 2 when ~526k were sold for 62 cents. Separately, 60k May $60 calls appear to have been bought for 15 cents vs open interest of ~6.1k.

Treasury yields ended marginally higher on the week with the long-end outperforming…very narrow range for the week.

This is the 11th day in a row that the 10Y yield has closed with a 2.8x% handle.

Despite all the exuberance in stocks this week, the dollar index ended unchanged…

While the dollar was unchanged, cryptocurrencies collapsed on the week with Bitcoin down 20% – one of its worst weeks in years…

Bitcoin ended back below $9k… but NOTE the heavy-volume dumps at the European close each of the last three days…

Gold ended the week unchanged, crude was lagging into this morning but ripped higher to close green…

NOTE – WTI’s big moves were all around the 11ET time (EU close)

Bonus Chart: No one should be surprised by today’s disappointing-wage-growth-driven rally – it is the norm!!

Bad news is good news again… oh and Goldilocks is alive again.

 end

Trading:/jobs report

an extremely strong economy with February payrolls adding 313,000 jobs.  But Wall Street looks for hourly earnings and they disappointed.  The need wage growth to stimulate their version of inflation

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Goldilocks”: February Payrolls Smash Expectations, Soar By 313K But Hourly Earnings Miss

There was good and bad news in the just released payrolls report: on one hand, February payrolls soared by a whopping 313K, smashing expectations of 205K, and well above last month’s upward revised 239K (from 200K). This was the biggest monthly increase since October 2015.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised up from +160,000 to +175,000, and the change for January was revised up from +200,000 to +239,000. With these revisions, employment gains in December and January combined were 54,000 more than previously reported.

The unemployment rate failed to drop to 4.0% as expected, remaining unchanged at 4.1%.

Here Goldman was right: the black unemployment rate dropped sharply, back to 6.9%, but even with that drop it was not enough to push the overall unemployment rate higher.

The reason for the flat unemployment rate is that the participation rate jumped notably, rising from 62.7% to 63.0%, the highest since September.

Now for the not so good news, which confirm that the February wage spike was to be short-lived, as hourly wages rose only 2.6% last month, below the 2.8% expected, with the February outlier of 2.9% also revised lower to 2.8%. This was in large part due to the increase in the workweek to 34.5 from 34.4 last month, which was a major reason for the spike in average hourly earnings in February.

The lack of notable wage growth even with the whopping payrolls addition confirms that a lot of slack still remains in the jobs market, or a return to the “Goldilocks” narrative, which as Bloomberg commentator Paul Dobson puts it, “Big beat on payrolls plus miss on average hourly earnings is great news for stocks (cheap labor) and may leave bonds/the dollar little changed.

Citi confirms:

“This favors the ‘goldilocks’ economy scenario – where the economy is not so hot it’s causing high inflation, but not so cold it’s causing recession concerns. It’s “just right.

More details from the report:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 313,000 in February. Job gains occurred in construction, retail trade, professional and business services, manufacturing, financial activities, and mining.

In February, construction employment increased by 61,000, with gains in specialty trade contractors (+38,000) and construction of buildings (+16,000). Construction has added 185,000 jobs over the past 4 months.

Retail trade employment increased by 50,000 over the month. Within the industry, employment rose in general merchandise stores (+18,000) and in clothing and clothing accessories stores (+15,000). However, over the past 4 months, which traditionally see the bulk of the holiday hiring and layoff, employment in these industries has changed little on net. Elsewhere in retail trade, building material and garden supply stores added jobs over the month (+10,000).

Employment in professional and business services increased by 50,000 in February and has risen by 495,000 over the year. Employment in temporary help services edged up over the month (+27,000).

Manufacturing added 31,000 jobs in February. Within the industry, employment rose in transportation equipment (+8,000), fabricated metal products (+6,000), machinery (+6,000), and primary metals (+4,000). Over the past year, manufacturing has added 224,000 jobs.

Financial activities added 28,000 jobs over the month, with gains in credit intermediation and related activities (+8,000); insurance carriers and related activities (+8,000); and securities, commodity contracts, and investments (+5,000). Over the year, financial activities has added 143,000 jobs.

Employment in mining rose by 9,000 in February, with most of the increase in support activities for mining (+7,000). Since a recent low in October 2016, mining has added 69,000 jobs.

Employment in health care continued to trend up in February (+19,000), with a gain of 9,000 in hospitals. Health care has added 290,000 jobs over the past year.

Employment in other major industries, including wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, leisure and hospitality, and government, showed little change over the month.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in February. In manufacturing, the workweek increased by 0.2 hour to 41.0 hours, while overtime edged up by 0.1 hour to 3.6 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.2 hour to 33.8 hours.

In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 4 cents to $26.75, following a 7-cent gain in January. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 68 cents, or 2.6 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 6 cents to $22.40 in February.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised up from +160,000 to +175,000, and the change for January was revised up from +200,000 to +239,000. With these revisions, employment gains in December and January combined were 54,000 more than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged 242,000 over the last 3 months.

end

Initial reaction:  stocks rise, bond yields rise  (dangerous) with the mixed payroll report

(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks & Bond Yields Jump After Mixed Messages From Payrolls

Dow futures jumped 200 points, Treasury yields spiked, and the dollar index dumped-n-pumped back to unchanged as payrolls beat but average hourly earnings growth slowed modestly… offering The Fed a bone.

And the dollar dropped… then bounced back to unch

Treasury yields are spiking higher…

The market is now fully priced for 3 rate-hikes in 2018…

And the odds of 4 (or more) rate hikes in 2018 are now around 40%…

 end
Now treasury yields have risen above 2.90% and this is the danger zone for stocks
(courtesy zerohedge)

Treasury Yields Spike Into ‘Danger Zone’ For Stocks

10Y Treasury yields are back above 2.90% – the highest since spiking on Powell hawkish comments  – and back into what some have called the ‘danger zone’ for stocks…

Last month’s payrolls print (blue rectangle) prompted a spike in yields which sparked a drop in stocks and the collapse of XIV and the short-vol trade…

This time is different… for now.

end

Broad strength everywhere including retail
(courtesy zerohedge)

Where The Jobs Were In February: Who’s Hiring And Who Isn’t

While February was expected to match the January payrolls number at best, the February payrolls print was a blockbuster, blowing expectations out of the water with 313K jobs added, over 785K according to the Household Survey, and a record 1 million full and part-time jobs.

So which sectors were responsible for the surge in February employment? The key highlights: virtually every industry added jobs in February, with a particular focus on construction workers, which added a whopping 61K jobs in February…

  • Construction: +61K
  • Durable Goods: +32K
  • Retail: +50K (Big Building Materials and Department Store non-firing)
  • Professional Services: +50K (solid temp workers of +27K)
  • Government: +26K (Schools +27K)

… with the exception of information, which saw a drop of 12K jobs.

Some other notable changes:

  • Manufacturing: +31K
  • Healthcare: +9K
  • Mining: +9K
  • Financial Activities: +28K

Commenting on the data, SouthBay research noted the following:

  • Construction: Much higher than expected.  Homebuilders are hiring and the bottlenecks I saw did not show up in BLS data
  • Manufacturing: Higher than expected.  My data shows demand is strong but more moderate
  • Financial: Higher than expected.  More lending and sales agents

What was also quite notable was the sharp, +50,300 jump in retail jobs, which according to the BLS, have wiped out the doldrums from the recent bricks and mortar collapse, and are back to record high.

Southbay’s summary: “Broad strength.  Notable strength in the supply chain (manufacturing, transportation) and consumer (home construction, Lending, Retail, Leisure & Hospitality)

Finally, as Bloomberg shows, below are the industries with the highest and lowest rates of employment growth for the most recent month: monthly growth rates are shown for the prior year.

end
This is not a good reading:  wholesale sales tumble in January, the biggest drop in 2 years but inventories build
This is will be a temporarily boost to 1 st quarter GDP but when inventories fall, and they will, GDP will drop
(courtesy zerohedge)

Wholesale Trade Sales Tumble In January, Biggest Drop In 2 Years As Inventories Build

After 7 straight months of growth, wholesale sales tumbled in January – the worst drop since Jan 2016.

On the other side of the wholesale picture, inventories rose 0.8% MoM (more than the expected 0.7% build), the highest since August 2017.

Which is likely to prompt upgrades for Q1 GDP.

Of course this divergence between sales (dropping) and inventories (building), sent the inventories/sales ratio up by the most in 3 years…

end

As David Stockman stated that the downstream steel products and their labour force will be hurt far greater than the benefits to the primary steel and aluminum manufacturing sector.  Now corporate America are scrambling tow in tariff exemptions so projects are not delayed or cancelled

(courtesy zerohedge)

Corporate America Scrambles To Win Tariff Exemptions “So Projects Aren’t Delayed Or Canceled”

Even though the scope of President Trump’s planned steel and aluminum tariffs wasn’t yet fully known when he stunned America (and global markets) a week ago by announcing at an impromptu meeting with steel executives that he’d be implementing a 25% tariff on steel and 10% tariff on aluminum, lawyers at every company that relies on imported steel or aluminum started scrambling to develop a plan for the worst-case scenario.

Trump

And while the reality is a watered-down version of the “no exemptions” rhetoric that Trump boasted last week (at least for now, considering that Mexico and Canada, countries that produce a significant chunk of America’s steel, are receiving a temporary dispensation as NAFTA talks are ongoing), hours after Trump signed his proclamation Thursday afternoon – announcing that the tariffs would take effect in 15 days – Bloomberg was ready with a story about America’s importers pleading their cases to the Commerce Department, all hoping to receive exemptions of their own, for “national security” or other reasons.

Steel

Companies that rely on steel and aluminum imports can ask the Commerce Department for a waiver if there’s a limited supply of the product in the US, or if, lacking the materials would put our national security at risk.But as Bloomberg points out, how these standards will be interpreted is anyone’s guess. Which is why aluminum can makers, pipeline builders and car companies are now making their cases about why they, too, should be exempt.

“The can industry relies on imported metal to make up for shortfalls of domestic steel and aluminum production. US steel producers are unable to satisfy domestic demand for food, aerosol and other can production,” the Can Manufacturers Institute said Thursday. The group will apply for exemptions for aluminum can sheets, aluminum ingots and steel tinplate – the material many food cans are made of.

A lobbying group for automakers is planning to press the Trump administration to expand the number of countries that would be exempt from the tariffs (which, incidentally, would also render them effectively toothless, though Trump has said they could raise tariffs on other countries to make up for it)…

The trade group that represents General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV hinted that automakers — which purchase about 15 percent of the steel and almost 40 percent of aluminum consumed in the U.S. — will press the Trump administration to water down the order by carving out exceptions for imports from some countries.

“The temporary exemption for our trading partners in Canada and Mexico is a step in the right direction,” said Matt Blunt, president of the American Automotive Policy Council. “We fully understand the desire to take action against nations whose unfair trade practices have led to global overcapacities in steel and aluminum, and encourage the administration to adopt a targeted approach.”

And a group representing natural gas producers is arguing that some of the types of steel that are necessary to build the tanks and equipment to harvest and store LNG aren’t available in the US…

The Center for LNG, a liquefied natural gas industry group, plans to seek an exemption because some of the five kinds of steels it uses aren’t available from U.S. sources. For example, steel used for cryogenic tanks, where fuel is stored after it’s been chilled to minus 260 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 162 Celsius), is hard to come by domestically, Daphne Magnuson, a spokeswoman for the group, said Thursday.

Oil and gas industry lawyers are struggling to make a case for an exemption since booming shale production (though, as we pointed out late last year, there are still many “known unknowns” that threaten the industry)…

The oil and gas industry’s success in boosting production has reduced the perception of energy security risk in Washington, which may make it difficult for oil companies to win exemptions to the tariffs, according to Kevin Book, managing director of Clearview Energy Partners LLC. The Trump administration may be reluctant to grant too many exceptions because it would have to raise tariffs on other countries to make up the difference, Book said in a note Thursday.

“We will work with the administration for maximum flexibility and consideration in how today’s proclamation is applied to minimize the impacts to U.S. investment in infrastructure, energy development, and building new facilities for America’s future,”Jack Gerard, president of the American Petroleum Institute, said in an emailed statement.

Pipeline developers are also hoping to use the “scarcity” argument to win exemptions. Of course, pipeline operators who are in the middle of massive projects are panicking that they might need to delay or cancel them because of a sudden surge in costs…something that would clearly kill jobs and lead to the type of bad optics that Trump doesn’t want to see.

Andy Black, president of the Association of Oil Pipe Lines, said in an interview Monday that pipeline developers would be seeking exemptions for when they can’t get sufficient materials sourced domestically. “That’s what pipeline operators feel like they need to keep a period of buildout going, so projects aren’t delayed or canceled because of cost,” he said.

Greg Armstrong, CEO of Plains All American Pipeline LP, told audience members at a Houston conference on Monday that he couldn’t buy one type of 26-inch (66-centimeter) pipe he needs for a specific project because it’s only made in three places — and none of them are in the U.S.

Plains is building two pipelines right now to bring oil from the booming Permian shale basin, Armstrong said. One would go to Corpus Christi, Texas, and the other to a major storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma. The two projects will add about 750,000 barrels a day of capacity to move oil and will help send shale production to overseas buyers.

“We’ve got about $1.5 billion of projects under way right now that use quite a bit of steel, so we were trying to figure out how bad that hurts, depending on where we made orders,” he said.

We also wouldn’t be surprised to see some US states pushing for exemptions, as the job-hurting effects of higher steel and aluminum costs damage local importers: they might wield some political leverage because 12 of 15 states identified by Deutsche Bank’s Torsten Slok voted for Trump.

States

end

here is another retail casualty:  Claires as they are to file for bankruptcy protection..another Amazon victim

(courtesy zerohedge)

The Latest Bezos Casualty: Claire’s To File For Bankruptcy

First Toys “R” Us getting ready to liquidate, and now that other famous pre-crisis retail LBO, Claire’s Stores, the tween fashion accessories mecca where “legions of preteens got their ears pierced”, is preparing to file for Chapter 11 in the coming weeks, Bloomberg reported.

The company, which was LBOed by Apollo in 2007, is set to hand over equity control from Apollo to key creditors including Elliott Capital and Monarch, with Bloomberg noting that Venor and Diameter Capital Partners are also involved. The move should help ease the $2 billion debt load at Claire’s, although just like with Toys, it may merely be delaying the inevitable liquidation (it took Toys less than 6 months to go from Chapter 11 to 7).

That said, Claire’s bankruptcy is hardly a surprise: the mall anchor retailer was prominently featured in our November piece, “A Look At America’s Retail Apocalypse In Charts” in which we highlighted the firm for its massive debt load and upcoming debt maturities. Sure enough, Bloomberg does the same:

The current debt load is more than 10 times a key measure of its annual earnings, the result of its 2007 leveraged buyout by Apollo. More than $1.4 billion of its debt matures next year, and more immediate pressure comes from a $60 million interest payment that’s due March 13.

And since the company no longer hopes to continue as a going concern, it is guaranteed that it will filed Chapter 11 within the 30 day grace period following the March 13 coupon payment which will not be made.

Meanwhile, score another slam dunk victory for Apollo, a firm that leads the league tables in the number of “LBO-to-Default” transformations. When Apollo paid $3.1 billion to acquire Claire’s from the family of founder Rowland Schaefer in 2007, it then began expanding rapidly, adding on even more debt. It added about 350 stores between 2010 and 2013, with more than 2,700 globally by the time it filed plans that year to go public, according to a company document.

But, as Bloomberg notes, the chain struggled to remain profitable after the Apollo buyout, and Claire’s withdrew its initial public offering registration in early 2017. And, about a year later, appropriately enough it is filing for bankruptcy.

Finally, while the company’s bankruptcy was a long foregone conclusion, a key outstanding question is what will happen to the cash flow of all those malls where Claire’s is an anchor client. According to Claire’s 10K, its stores in North America are located primarily in shopping malls and average approximately 1,000 square feet of selling space. It has 1,600 stores in North America, which means 1,600 malls are about to see their cash flow drop that much more, which begs the question: is the “go long the malls” trade, which briefly became cool among the counter-contrarian crowd, already over, and is time to resume shorting the CMBX BBB-.

Meanwhile, back in Seattle, Bezos takes another victory lap on his road to intergalactic domination.

end

SWAMPVILLE

Have fun with this:  Former porn star Stormy Daniels is hit with a restraining order over the Trump affair talk

(courtesy zerohedge)

Stormy Daniels Hit With Restraining Order Over Trump Affair Talk

The saga of Stephanie Clifford – better known to Americans as “Stormy Daniels” the former adult-film actress who claims she had an affair with Trump more than a decade ago – continued late Wednesday when the New York Times and NBC News reported that Trump lawyer Michael Cohen had filed a restraining order against Daniels to try and prevent her from speaking out about her affair with Trump.

The order, issued by an arbitrator in California, pertained to Daniels and the “hush agreement” she signed in October 2016 whereby she accepted $130,000 in exchange for signing an NDA about her relationship with Trump. the deal was made while Daniels was reportedly in talks with Slate and Good Morning America to share her story with them.

Daniels

Details of the restraining order emerged late Wednesday after White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders addressed Daniels’ claims for the first time (she denied that the president had a relationship with the former adult actress) and announced that a Trump lawyer had won an arbitration proceeding against her.

Per the Times, the restraining order puts the White House in the middle of the story by creating “the spectacle of a sitting president using legal maneuvers to avoid further scrutiny of salacious accusations of an affair and a payoff involving the porn star.”

Daniels said her relationship with Trump was consensual, and that it began in 2006 during a golf tournament in Lake Tahoe, Nevada, but soured after Trump was unable to secure for her a spot on “The Apprentice”.

Daniels filed a lawsuit in Los Angeles Superior Court on Tuesday claiming the NDA she signed in 2016 is invalid because Trump never signed it.

Lawrence Rosen, a lawyer representing Cohen, said that an arbitrator, who “found that Ms. Clifford had violated the agreement,” barred her from filing her lawsuit and making other disclosures of confidential information.

Daniels’ lawyer, Michael Avenatti, said he didn’t consider the restraining order – dated Feb. 27 – to be valid, adding that his client would proceed with her lawsuit “in open court.”

“This should be decided publicly,” Avenatti said.

The NDA gives Trump the right to seek $1 million in arbitration should Daniels break – or threaten to break – their agreement.

In addition to her claim that Trump never signed the agreement, Daniels also argued that Cohen broke the terms of the NDA when he publicly admitted last month to paying Daniels $130,000 last month.

A copy of the restraining order, available below, left open the possibility that it could be modified int he future. An election watchdog called Common Cause is asking the Federal Election Commission and the Justice Department to investigate Cohen’s payment, arguing that it could constitute an in-kind contribution to the Trump campaign, and therefore should’ve been disclosed.

Read the restraining order below:

Stormy Daniels Restraining Order by Anonymous JJ6eerL on Scribd

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/373301368/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&access_key=key-EV2LBsLz5bhsKSdS6vlW&show_recommendations=true

END

This will not happen:  Mueller will not deal for a wrap up in day 60 days.  He gains nothing.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Lawyers Said To Seek Deal With Mueller: Report

With Trump’s interview with Mueller looming, the President lawyers are reportedly seeking to negotiate a deal with special counsel Robert Mueller that uses an interview with Trump as negotiating leverage, and accelerate a conclusion to the Russia investigation.

According to the WSJ, the president’s legal team plans on telling Mueller that Trump would agree to a sit-down interview based on multiple considerations, including that the special counsel commit to a date for concluding at least the Trump-related portion of the investigation. One idea is to suggest a deadline of 60 days from the date of the interview.

Another consideration for Trump’s lawyers is “reaching an agreement with Mueller on the scope of his questioning of the president, which they expect to focus largely on his decision to fire former national security adviser Mike Flynn and former FBI director James Comey.” This also confirms that Trump’s legal team is convinced that Mueller is now going after obstruction of justice and interference, and not Russian collusion as the primary angle of attack.

Trump is pressing his lawyers to bring about an end to the probe.

Mr. Trump has been eager to see the investigation wrap up as quickly as possible, describing it as a distraction that is hurting the country. His lawyers have repeatedly laid out public timelines by which they expected the investigation to end. Those deadlines have come and gone.

Tweeting in January, Mr. Trump said of the investigation: “On and on it goes. Russia & the world is laughing at the stupidity they are witnessing.”

Of course, it is feasible that Mueller does accelerate the probe’s conclusion, only with a determination that is the opposite of what Trump would want to hear.

* * *

The WSJ source notes that conversations with Mueller over a possible Trump interview are in the earliest stages. The lead outside attorney for Trump, John Dowd, said in an email Friday: “We never discuss our communications with OSC (Office of Special Counsel).”

While it was unclear if Mueller would agree to Trump’s terms, legal experts told the WSJ they were skeptical that the special counsel would be open to the Trump legal team’s requests.

“You can’t put a timeline on these things,” said Peter Zeidenberg, a former federal prosecutor and an expert in government investigations. “Someone could walk in the door on the day before their proposed deadline and say, ‘I’ve got some information that’s going to blow your minds.’ … Mueller’s going to say, ‘Oh, too bad, the deadline’s tomorrow?’ ”

Trump’s sit down with Mueller comes as the special counsel has already interviewed dozens of top White House officials and campaign aides, including the president’s son-in-law and senior adviser, Jared Kushner, and former chief of staff Reince Priebus.

* * *

As previously reported, Trump’s lawyers hold differing opinions on whether the president should testify and under what conditions.

One member of the Trump legal team said last month that Mr. Trump’s testimony could set a bad precedent for future presidents, eroding their powers.

If Mr. Trump were to face detailed questions involving dates and times, his legal team may be reluctant to have him participate. As an example, general questions about what the president was thinking when he ordered the firing of Mr. Comey might be acceptable, as opposed to what action he took on a specific date and time.

The WSJ concludes that as a Plan B, Trump’s legal team has studied federal court rulings that could be the basis for delaying or limiting the scope of an interview, or perhaps avoiding one altogether, although with Mueller successfully “turning” several potential witnesses, it is doubtful that he would succumb to any influence from the White House, absent Trump’s engaging in a controversial termination.

What is more interesting is that whereas until recently the market would at least demonstrate a token move when presented with such a notable escalation in the Trump-Mueller narrative, today the S&P has not even flinched, prompting some to wonder if anyone even remotely cares about the ongoing Mueller probe at this point.

end

let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter

Kim Jong Un Blinks, Tariffs On, Dems Will Cheat in 2018

By Greg Hunter On March 9, 2018

 

The leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un, appears to have blinked in the face of pressure President Donald Trump has put on him. It’s reported the U.S. military was in the process of planning a possible preemptive strike on the North Korean regime.  “Un” has invited President Trump to talk about nuclear disarmament in May, and Trump has accepted.Meanwhile, President Trump has paid off on the promise of tariffs on steel and aluminum. China and many other countries are upset and are threating to counter.  Some say Trump is starting a trade war, but the fact is we have been in one for years.  That’s why the U.S. runs a half trillion dollar trade deficit with China alone every year.

I keep asking Democrats to give one idea that is not socialist, communist or Marxist that will help average everyday Americans improve their lives. The Dems don’t have one, but they are willing to do plenty for illegal aliens, and their New World Order overlords like George Soros.  This is why I think the Democrat Party will have to cheat like never before in the 2018 midterms.  Election fraud and voter fraud here we come.

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

 https://usawatchdog.com/kim-jong-un-blinks-tariffs-on-dems-will-cheat-in-2018/
end
have a great weekend…

I will  see you MONDAY night

HARVEY

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One comment

  1. So Harvey it is now march??? what happened to all those EFP transfers??? HMMMM nothing of course more bullshit information by mr HARVEY ORGAN ….stop wasting everyone s ime with your USELESS ARTICLES ….just shut down your blog suck a joke

    Like

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