March 28/RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER CONTINUE AS OPTIONS EXPIRY ENDS TOMORROW ON LBMA/OTIC/GOLD DOWN $16.30 TO $1342.90 AND SILVER IS DOWN 27 CENTS TO $16.27/STRANGE: AT THE COMEX NO GOLD INVENTORY MOVEMENT AND TOMORROW IS FIRST DAY NOTICE/USA YIELD CURVE COLLAPSES TODAY INDICATING RECESSION/

 

 

GOLD: $1326.60  DOWN $16.30  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver: $16.27 DOWN 27 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1325.60

silver: $16.29

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $N/A DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $N/A

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $N/A

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $N/A

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $N/A

PREMIUM SECOND FIX /NY:$XX

SHANGHAI REJECTS NY PRICING OF GOLD.

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ON APRIL 1  2018 I WILL NO LONGER PROVIDE THE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE MANIPULATED AND THEY WILL BE PROVIDED 36 HRS AFTER THE FACT AND  THUS TOTALLY USELESS TO US!!

LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1341.05

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1341.25

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1332.45

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1331.85

end

For comex gold:

MARCH/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR MARCH CONTRACT:475 NOTICE(S) FOR 47,500 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 506 FOR 50,600 OZ

For silver:

MARCH

4 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

20,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 5348 for 26,740,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: BID $8012/OFFER $8082: UP $81(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $7884/offer $7954: DOWN $47  (CLOSING/5 PM)

 

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest ROSE  BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1719 contracts from 217,799  RISING TO 219,518  DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 14 CENT DROP IN SILVER PRICING WE OBVIOUSLY HAD NO COMEX LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER, WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER GIGANTIC SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP : 3168 EFP’S FOR MAY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 3168 CONTRACTS.  WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3168 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3168 CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 15.84 MILLION OZ  ON TOP OF THE RISE IN OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER AT THE COMEX.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MARCH:

44,401 CONTRACTS (FOR 20 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 44,401 CONTRACTS) OR 222.00 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 2220 CONTRACTS OR 11.110 MILLION OZ/DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  222.00 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 31.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:  703.83 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018: 236.879 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MONTH OF FEBRUARY: 244.95 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 1719 WITH THE 14 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE.  HOWEVER, WE ALSO HAD A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3168 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER . FROM THE CME DATA 3168  EFP’S  FOR THE  MONTH OF MAY WERE ISSUED FOR  A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS.   WE GAINED A HUGE  4887 OI CONTRACTS i.e. 3168 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A INCREASE OF 1719  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 14 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.54 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX THIS MONTH.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.097 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 157% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED: 80 NOTICE(S) FOR 400,000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest  FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 121,930 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 529,690 WITH THE FAIR SIZED FALL IN PRICE IN YESTERDAY TRADING ( LOSS OF $11.70). WE ARE NOW ENTERING THE LAST WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE GOLD COMEX CONTRACT MONTH AND HERE WE GENERALLY SEE A CONTRACTION AT THE COMEX WITH A CORRESPONDING HIGHER EFP ISSUED AND THAT IS WHAT WE GOT. THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED AN STRONG SIZED  16,331 CONTRACTS :  APRIL SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 5410 CONTRACTS, JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 10,331 CONTRACTS AND THEN ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.   The new OI for the gold complex rests at 529,690. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI  TOGETHER WITH  THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY COMEX. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES. IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL  OI LOSS IN CONTRACTS: 21,930 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND A STRONG SIZED 16,331 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS: 5599 CONTRACTS OR 559,900 OZ =14.41 TONNES

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 14,247 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH : 213,380 CONTRACTS OR 21,338,000  OZ OR 663.70 TONNES (20 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 10,669 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 1,066,900 OZ/ TRADING DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :   SO FAR THIS MONTH IN 20 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 663.70 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 663.70/2550 x 100% TONNES =  26.02% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN MARCH ALONE.*** THE ACCUMULATION OF EFP CONTRACTS IS RISING PER MONTH.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:  1957.02 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018: 653.22  TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY: 649.45 TONNES

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE CONSIDERABLE SIZED FALL IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($11.70 LOSS).  HOWEVER, WE HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 16,331 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE ALSO OBSERVED A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 16,331 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A SMALL NET LOSS IN OPEN INTEREST OF 5599 contracts ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

16,331 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 21,930 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the LOSS in total oi equates to 17.41  TONNES).

we had: 12 notice(s) filed upon for 1200 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN  $16.30 : AND OUR USUAL RAID ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK: THIS AGAIN WAS TO EXPECTED:   A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD /A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS USED IN THE RAID

Inventory rests tonight: 846.12 tonnes.

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 1719 contracts from 217,799 UP TO 219,677 (AND now A LITTLE  CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER (14 CENTS WITH RESPECT TO  YESTERDAY’S TRADING).   OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER 3168 EFP CONTRACTS FOR MAY  (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM) AND 0 EFP’S FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. WE HAD ZERO COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1719  CONTRACTS TO THE 3168 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A GAIN OF 4887  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN MARCH (SEE BELOW). THE NET GAIN TODAY IN OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  24.43 MILLION OZ!!!

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE FALL IN SILVER PRICING  YESTERDAY (14 CENT FALL IN PRICE) . BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER VERY STRONG SIZED 3168 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR MARCH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 44.36 POINTS OR 1.40% /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 768.30 POINTS OR 2.50% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 286.01/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.75%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.2936/Oil DOWN to 64.76 dollars per barrel for WTI and 69.89 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE RED   .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.2936 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.2796 /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR . CHINA IS NOT VERY HAPPY TODAY POOR  CHINESE MARKETS/WITH  NEW TRUMP TRADE DEALS DISCUSSED WEAKER GLOBAL MARKETS/WEAKER CURRENCY

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

 

North Korea/China

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 France/GermanyGermany and France clash over what to do with USA car tariffs.  Germany due to its huge export business wants to make concessions.  France says no concessions.  However it is ultimately the EU and not just Germany and France that must make that decision

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil and gasoline fall after a huge Cushing OK build.  Crude continues to have record production

( zerohedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

VENEZUELA

We are now witnessing child gangs forming in order to fight for food scraps

( Mac Slavo/SHFTplan.com)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Due to protectionist policies, hedge funds make their move away from the dollar

( Greifeld/Bloomberg)

ii)Mike Kosares:  the Petro-Yuan could displace the petro dollar and thus the USA dollar hegemony

( Kosares/GATA)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)Early trading:
an excellent commentary from Mark Cudmore who strongly believes that the collapsing 10 yr yield is just the beginning and yields  will deteriorate further
( Cudmore)
i b)Afternoon trading:  yield curve collapses( zerohedge)
ii)We now have the finalized GDP figures for the 4th quarter and thus for the entire year:Q4 grew at 2.9%. For the year: 2.3%. Technically the GDP never grew due to the deflator (inflation indicator) used.  They always fudge the true inflation numbers downward.

( zerohedge)

iii)Wholesale inventories surge but not retail inventories.  We must wait and see if these numbers correspond to sales.This will be a plus to Q1 GDP final numbers

( zerohedge)

iv)Pending home sales tumble year over year but gain month over month:  3.1%

(courtesy zerohedge)

v)Baltimore is in a mess:  new audit exposes to city of mismanagement of both Federal and state grants
( zerohedge)
vi)SWAMP STORIES

a)My goodness!! The USA is heading for civil war:  The California AG is now using Trump over the wording of citizenship in the new 2020 census

( zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 21,930 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level 529,690  WITH THE CONSIDERABLE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($11.70  LOSS/ YESTERDAY’S TRADING) FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE.   THE CME REPORTS THAT  THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED  COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE HAD A STRONG 5410 EFP’S ISSUED FOR APRIL , AND 10,921 CONTRACTS FOR  JUNE AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:  TOTAL  16,331 CONTRACTS.  THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON FORWARD… THE COMEX IS NOW AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST TODAY: 5599 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 16,331 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST 21,930 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5599 contracts OR 559900  OZ OR 17.41 TONNES.

Result: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE CONSIDERABLE FALL IN PRICE YESTERDAY  (ENDING UP WITH A LOSS OF $11.70)THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5599 OI CONTRACTS..

We have now entered the non active contract month of MARCH where we LOST 463 contracts LOWERING TO  12 contracts. We had 475 notices served upon yesterday, so GAINED  12 contracts  or 1200 additional oz will stand for delivery at the comex

April saw a LOSS of 71,096 contracts DOWN to 37,534. May saw A GAIN of 215 contracts to stand at 1299. The really big June contract month saw a GAIN of 46,757 contracts UP to 374,407 contracts.

We had 12 notice(s) filed upon today for  1200 oz

FIRST DAY NOTICE IS THIS THURSDAY.THE AMOUNT STANDING FOR APRIL GOLD WILL BE CONSIDERABLE.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY:407,765  contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 603,786 contracts

comex gold volumes are RISING AGAIN

Here is a summary of the latest gold trading volumes at the Comex per year

certainly the introduction of EFP’s has certainly had an effect:

Meanwhile, gold-trading volumes on the COMEX have never been higher:

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG 1719  CONTRACTS FROM 217,799 UP TO 219,518 DESPITE OUR  14 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING/ YESTERDAY’)  ALSO,WE WERE ALSO INFORMED THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG 3168 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MAY ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON: THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 3168.   THE SILVER BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE JUST LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY. USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AS WE HAVE JUST SEEN IN GOLD TODAY. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST BEGUN IN EARNEST IN SILVER STARTING IN SEPTEMBER 2017. HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS. NICK LAIRD WAS KIND ENOUGH TO SUPPLY US THE TOTAL FOR 2017 GOLD EFP’S AND IT WAS 6600 TONNES FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR.  WE OBVIOUSLY HAD ZERO LONG COMEX SILVER LIQUIDATION AND WE ALSO HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL SILVER OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE ARE ALSO WITNESSING A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR COMEX METAL IN THIS ACTIVE OF MARCH AS WELL AS THE CONTINUAL MIGRATION OF EFPS OVER TO LONDON. ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS THERE ARE MORE EFP’S ISSUED FOR GOLD THAN SILVER.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 4887 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS  WE OBTAINED A 1719 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 3168 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:4887 CONTRACTS 

AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX

We are now in the  active delivery month of MARCH and here the front month LOST 4 contracts FALLING TO 80 contracts. We had 4 contracts filed YESTERDAY, so we GAINED 0 contracts or an additional NIL OZ will stand in this active delivery month of March

April LOST 34 contracts FALLING TO 362 .

The next big active delivery month for silver will be May and here the OI GAINED 49 contracts UP to 149,212

We had 80 notice(s) filed for 400,000 OZ for the MARCH 2018 contract for silver

INITIAL standings for MARCH/GOLD

MARCH 28/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  nil OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today
12 notice(s)
 1200 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
(NIL oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
518 notices
51800 OZ
1.6111 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
***very unusual/ for 5 consecutive days no gold inventory movement.
very strange as tomorrow is first day notice!
we had 0 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 0 withdrawals out of the customer account:
total withdrawal: nil   oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 adjustment(s)

For MARCH:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 12 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MARCH. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (518) x 100 oz or 51,800 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (12 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (12 x 100 oz per contract) equals 51,800 oz, the number of ounces standing in this nonactive month of MARCH (1.6114 tonnes)

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MARCH contract month:

No of notices served (518 x 100 oz or ounces + {(12)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (12 x 100 oz )which equals 51,800 oz standing in this  nonactive delivery month of March . THERE IS 12.003 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE GAINED 12 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 1200 OZ WILL NOT STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH

total registered or dealer gold:  385,923.014 oz or 12.003 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   9,060,591.220 oz 281.82 tones
THE COMEX IS AGAIN IN STRESS AS ONLY 12.003 TONNES OF GOLD ARE LEFT TO SERVICE DELIVERIES

IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 72 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DECEMBER DELIVERY MONTH

MARCH INITIAL standings/SILVER

March 28 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 62,061.010
  oz
SCOTIA
DELAWARE
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
600,571.100 oz
Malca
No of oz served today (contracts)
80
CONTRACT(S
(400,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
(NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 5428 contracts

(27,190,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 137 million oz of  total silver inventory or 53.6% of all official comex silver.

JPMorgan  deposited zero into its warehouses (official) today.

ii) into Malca:  600,571.100 oz

total deposits today:  600,571.100  oz

we had 2 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Scotia; 60,028.510 oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 2032.00

total withdrawals;  62,061.010  oz

we had 0 adjustments

total dealer silver:  59.383 million

total dealer + customer silver:  259.035 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the March. contract month is represented by 80 contract(s) FOR 400,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in March., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5428 x 5,000 oz = 27,190,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of Mar. (80) and the number of notices served upon today (80 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the March contract month: 5428(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of March(80) -number of notices served upon today (80)x 5000 oz equals 27,190,000 oz of silver standing for the March contract month. 

We GAINED 0 contracts or NIL additional silver oz will  stand for delivery at the comex

FIRST DAY NOTICE IS THIS THURSDAY.

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 94,412 CONTRACTS

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 112,631 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 112,631 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO  563 MILLION OZ OR 80.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -2.12% (MARCH 28/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.71% to NAV (March 28/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.12%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.71%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV RISES TO -3.02%: NAV 13.62/TRADING 13.20//DISCOUNT 3.02.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

March 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.70, ANOTHER RAID ORCHESTRATED, AGAIN NO SURPRISES AS WE WITNESS ANOTHER 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.12 TONNES

MARCH 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.70 AND A RAID INITIATED, IT WAS NO SURPRISE TO SEE THAT A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES WAS USED IN THE ABOVE RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.30 TONNES

MARCH 26./WITH GOLD UP $4.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $23.30/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

MARCH 22.WITH GOLD UP $5.90, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES/

MARCH 21/WITH GOLD UP $9.65 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

March 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.75, A SURPRISING HUMONGOUS DEPOSIT OF 10.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.64 TONNES/

SO FAR, FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH, THE GLD HAS ADDED 19.61 TONNES WITH A NET LOSS OF $17.45

March 19/WITH GOLD UP $5.25: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF 2.07 TONNES/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 840.22 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.65/OUR CROOKS DEPOSITED ANOTHER 4.42 TONNES INTO GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 838.15 TONNES

FOR THE WEEK: GOLD LOST  $11.80, BUT GOLD INVENTORY ADVANCED:4.42 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.55/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

March 8/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

GOLD DOWN 5.45 TODAY.

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN 8.00/A SLIGHT CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A WITHDRAWAL OF .25 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $15.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

March 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD UP $18.70/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

March 1/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $12.30/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/ A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.98 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER 70 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 831.03 TONNES/.

feb 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.80 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 831.03 TONNES

FEB 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.40/WE HAD ANOTHER INVENTORY GAIN/THIS TIME 1.77 TONNE ADDITION TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 831.03 TONNES/WE HAVE HAD 5 INCREASES IN THE PAST 6 TRADING GOLD SESSIONS/

FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15, WE HAD A GOOD INVENTORY GAIN OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.26 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

MARCH 28/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 846/12 tonnes

*IN LAST 351 TRADING DAYS: 94.92 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 301 TRADING DAYS: A NET 61.38 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

March 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/AGAIN NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS, A HAD A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.602 MILLION OZ.INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT, NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 21/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 19/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS, THE SLV ADDS A SMALL 659,000 OZ TO ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ.

FOR THE WEEK;  SILVER IS DOWN 42 CENTS YET ADDS 943,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS/A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 943,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS, NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

March 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

March 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS: A HUGE 1.479 MILLION OZ WAS ADDED TO SILVER’S INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

March 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ./

FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ/

feb 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ

FEB 26/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ/

FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE ADDITION OF 1.315 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 27/2018: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

Inventory 318.069 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO 2.15/ and libor 6 month duration 2.45

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.15%

libor 2.45 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .30%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.51%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.67

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.18

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for WEDNESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Eurozone Faces Many Threats Including Trade Wars and “Eurozone Time-Bomb” In Italy

– Eurozone threatened by trade wars, Italy and major political and economic instability
– Trade war holds a clear and present danger to stability and economic prospects
– Italy represents major source of potential disruption for the currency union
– Financial markets fail to reflect the “eurozone time-bomb” in Italy

– Financial volatility concerns in Brussels & warning of ‘sharp correction’ on horizon
– Euro and global currency debasement and bank bail-in risks

Editor: Mark O’Byrne


Source: Wikimedia

Donald Trump believes trade wars are easy to win.  Winning depends on who your opponent is. At the moment Trump’s target is seemingly China but it is becoming increasingly clear that the Eurozone (and wider EU) is very much also at the top of his protectionist agenda.

This is a problem for the single market. It is not in a strong position when it comes to facing off the strong arm tactics of the President of the United States. Germany is the powerhouse of the EU when it comes to successful trade and industry, but its exporting machine is also vulnerable to US trade tariffs.

The Eurozone (and EU) are facing some major political and financial threats. This was already the case without Trump’s nationalist agenda, but trade tariffs combined with Italy’s political instability and increased market volatility risk now have the single market facing a precarious future.

Italy is a serious political and financial threat

As outlined in the introduction, Trump’s trade wars have brought a number of problems to the fore for the Eurozone but it is Italy that is the most foreseeable threat to economic instability at this moment.

The election in early March and its uncertain result spooked markets somewhat but not enough to offer a real reflection of the risks posed. The result (which is still to be decided, overall) will pose major difficulties for the Eurozone that requires an Italian government focused on economic reforms and fiscal austerity.

Neither party brokering a deal to enter the leadership will be offering this on a silver platter.

Not only are the Five Star Movement and League yet another threat to the ‘one vision’ federal aims of the Eurozone elites but they have also shown very little interest in fiscal restraint. This is the only pathway for the Italian economy to returning to a sustainable footing according to the ECB.

This coming Autumn the (new) government (if appointed) will pass a new budget. Whilst this is pivotal for any new government, it will be more important to watch the politics surrounding the budget.

Considering over 60% of the parliament is made up of populist politicians the chances of an austerity budget being passed are beyond slim.

The two leading parties likely to form a government, The Five Star Movement and League, have made promises they cannot afford to break but are in direct contradiction with EU demands.

Five Star has promised a universal basic income, League has been elected on the promise of a flat income tax. Further inconsistencies with EU reforms are both parties’ promises to reverse pension changes.

At the moment markets do not seem too upset by the political situation in Italy. This is both short-sighted and naive.

Spending policies of both parties challenge EU rules. Whilst Mario Draghi in the ECB has previously been able to keep the country in line, this was with the help of Europhile Mario Monti. Monti is no more and Italians have shown their eagerness to elect more radical politicians who are reacting to the backlash of two punishing decades in which young people were out of work and the elderly lost their savings.

This backlash is something which is being felt throughout Europe. Astonishingly markets and commentators believed Eurosceptisim was on the back burner (despite various election results in 2017).

Italy’s own political outcome should serve as a much needed wakeup call that the euroscepticism within the bloc remain and will likely be reawakened.  It may even bring back the existential threat to eurozone stability so many had long thought diminished. In turn, this will reduce the support the euro is currently enjoying.

As is becoming increasingly apparent, Italy is quite the dilemma for the Eurozone, they cannot afford to let it fail but equally it is seemingly too big to save.

This is very much the calm before the storm, as another economic crisis no doubt looms on the horizon.

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Is the euro-area as strong as they think?

The ‘shock’ of the Italian election outcome has caused dementia within commentary circles regarding eurozone strength. To hear them talk about the eurozone one would think it was the epitome of health prior to the 4th March Italian election.

It was not. For example, not only is Brexit still threatening a major existential crisis on the single market but 2017 brought in the destruction of the French two-tier political system and the total wipeout of the centrist majority in German parliament – two things Europhiles thought they could be sure of.

Instead there are a number of looming issues that will no doubt create further divisions and anti-EU sentiments. This is despite markets remaining optimistic.

By all accounts, the forecasts for eurozone growth are pretty optimistic. The European Commission has recently revised upwards its expectations for growth in 2018 and 2019, having been surprised by the performance in 2017.

However, they also warn of a potential ‘sharp correction in financial markets’ . In a 44-page forecast the EC warned of asset price vulnerability to ‘a reassessment of fundamentals and risks [that] could expose debt overhand in a number of Member States.’

Ratings agency Moody have also put a dampener on any self-congratulatory moves, a recent report finds that high-national debt is a long-term threat to the single currency union’s prosperity:

“As the economic cycle inevitably turns and growth slows, high public debt will become an increasingly important constraint on sovereign credit profiles.” A downturn could hit national finances hard, “rendering them vulnerable.”

Brexit is not going to send the single currency market spinning out of control but there are major unresolved issues and looming ones which may well do this. Both French and German parties put forward major Eurozone reforms in 2017, no one has agreed on anything. The main issue politicians and bureaucrats are working to resolve is the never-ending interdependence between sovereigns and banks.

The solution that will no doubt be agreed upon will be a banking union. The chances of this being at all fully functioning are extremely slim given the different economic and political interests of each eurozone member. Needless to say the union will not be perfect and therefore the main problems in the single currency market will remain – there will be overdependent financial systems, highly leverage banks, increasingly unimaginable imbalances between member states and more booms and shocks.

All in all, there will not be the tools to deal with ‘shocks’, pushing the ECB further into the red and further away from reform.

America first, consequences second

The EU’s lack of financial reforms, growing euroskepticism and growing debt levels are nothing new. All that was required was a catalyst to cause them to tip the financial union into crisis.

President Donald Trump may well be that catalyst. The US is the only country to have trade featured in the first article of its constitution. This explains why protectionism fits in so nicely with Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda.

Since the end of the Second World War European countries have taken the approach that trade is a means by which nations can find common ground so the risks of going to war are far more costly than just military. Paradoxically the US see trade as a means of exerting ones force and independence on the world – it is a demonstration of sovereignty. This has come at a bit of a shock to the EU.

For years the EU has sailed along arrogantly assuming that current account surpluses from the likes of Germany are not going to be an issue. They are an issue, but one that is usually taken up with the G20, or even the WTO (with who the US wins more than 85% of the dispute-settlement cases). Instead, Trump has taken matters into his own hand and now the eurozone’s own bastion of stability – Germany is in the firing line.

Currently Germany has an 8% current account surplus, whilst the eurozone also runs at a huge 3.5%. This makes them both vulnerable  to trade wars. This is a swift lesson in why the ECB’s strategy to prevent a crisis since 2012 has been short-sighted and costly. It has resulted on a current account surplus and now (inevitably) other nations don’t want to take it. The single currency market has opened itself up to protectionist measures.

Should Trump follow through with his threats and put a 35% tariff on European cars then it will lose the economy an estimated €17bn a year. Add to this the ongoing problems in the diesel car market and Germany are in a real bind when it comes to strategic industries.

Of course, the EU can respond to US measures but they are very much on the backfoot. They rely on the US for security support and (until now) to turn a blind eye to their current account surplus. Now, Trump has realised that he has a double-edged sword – his trade tariffs will not only influence the EU’s trade policies but also the defence spending of NATO allies.

The US can get away with protectionist measures as it is far less reliant on foreign trade than the likes of the EU plus it has a relatively insignificant social welfare system. This means there is a significantly lower risk to the economy by engaging in protectionism.

In contrast, the EU is far more reliant on foreign trade particularly due to the impact an increase in protectionism will have on its developed welfare system. The costs are too great to let these measures get the better of them, but with Trump hanging military spending and support over their heads what can the EU do in this new Cold War era?

Should Italy, Tariffs and Trump worry our portfolios?

Anything that impacts the financial situation of a country will have an effect on your savings and investment portfolio. This may just be in terms of currency risk or stock market performance. Alternatively it could be worse than that and it could result in bail-ins confiscating money straight from your savings account.

Two years ago, the ECB approved the bail-in tool. In simple terms it gave them the right to remove money from individuals’ and companies deposit accounts in times of financial crisis.

It is now not difficult to see the looming threats to the stability of the European financial system.

Investors would be wise to redirect their attention from the politicking around Italian elections and trade war disagreements, instead fusing their energies on securing their wealth.

Savers should be looking for means in which they can keep their money within instant reach and their reach only. Gold and silver bullion, if owned in the safest manner, remain one of the best options in this regard.

Physical, allocated and segregated  bullion coin and bars ownership gives you outright legal ownership and total liquidity. There are no counter parties who can claim it is legally theirs (unlike with cash in the bank or shares) or legislation that rules that deposits can be confiscated to bail out failing banks.

Gold and silver are the financial insurance against bail-ins, political mismanagement, and overreaching government and financial institutions.

To read more about how you can protect your savings in the bail-in era then read our free bail-in guide here.

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below


Related reading

Eurozone Banks ‘As Likely To Fail Now As In 2008’ – Bail-ins?

Bank Bail-In Risk In European Countries Seen In 5 Key Charts

Happy 2nd Birthday Bail-in Tool! We Suggest Gold As The Perfect Gift

News and Commentary

Asia Stocks Fall After U.S. Tech Slump; Yen Drops (Bloomberg.com)

Gold prices edge higher on softer U.S. dollar (Reuters.com)

Tumbling tech stocks lead Asian-market slide (MarketWatch.com)

Tech Rout Punishes U.S. Stocks as Treasuries Surge | (Bloomberg.com)

OPEC, Russia consider 10-20 year oil alliance – Saudi Crown Prince (Reuters.com)


Source: Bloomberg.com

Stock Market Can’t Decide How to Trade Tariff Threats (Bloomberg.com)

Sell Bitcoin, Buy Gold? (Bloomberg.com)

Bank Sector In Peril As Refi Activity Crashes Amid Rising Rates (ZeroHedge.com)

The Lesson From Stock Corrections Past? 200 Days of Pain (Bloomberg.com)

West Virginia congressman introduces gold standard legislation (WSJ.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

28 Mar: USD 1,341.05, GBP 946.24 & EUR 1,082.23 per ounce
27 Mar: USD 1,350.65, GBP 954.64 & EUR 1,087.41 per ounce
26 Mar: USD 1,348.40, GBP 949.27 & EUR 1,086.95 per ounce
23 Mar: USD 1,342.35, GBP 952.80 & EUR 1,088.65 per ounce
22 Mar: USD 1,328.85, GBP 939.36 & EUR 1,078.10 per ounce
21 Mar: USD 1,316.35, GBP 935.53 & EUR 1,071.64 per ounce
20 Mar: USD 1,312.75, GBP 935.60 & EUR 1,066.22 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

28 Mar: USD 16.46, GBP 11.63 & EUR 13.28 per ounce
27 Mar: USD 16.64, GBP 11.79 & EUR 13.41 per ounce
26 Mar: USD 16.61, GBP 11.67 & EUR 13.39 per ounce
23 Mar: USD 16.53, GBP 11.70 & EUR 13.39 per ounce
22 Mar: USD 16.52, GBP 11.64 & EUR 13.41 per ounce
21 Mar: USD 16.25, GBP 11.56 & EUR 13.23 per ounce
20 Mar: USD 16.25, GBP 11.60 & EUR 13.22 per ounce

 end

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

Andrew Maguire

2:57 PM (1 hour ago)
to me

Harvey

Here It is my friend!  https://kinesis.money/#/ Please let everyone know.

Let catch up on Monday if you have time. We have billions in the hopper ready to be allocated on the 1st day of trading. The paper market days are over.

Warm regards

Andy

END

end

Due to protectionist policies, hedge funds make their move away from the dollar

(courtesy Greifeld/Bloomberg)

* * *

As trade war heats up, biggest currency whales make their move

 Section: 

By Katherine Greifeld
Bloomberg News
Monday, March 26, 2018

For the first time in a decade, the world’s central banks are looking beyond the dollar to build their currency reserves.

With U.S. protectionism on the rise, a number of Wall Street strategists say the case for the euro has rarely been better. Existential crises that hobbled the European experiment have receded. A resurgent economy has spurred talk the region’s central bank will curb policies that drove euro yields below zero. And as President Donald Trump threatens a trade war with China, the European Union is pursuing free-trade deals all across Asia and Latin America.

Of course the dollar commands most of the world’s $11.3 trillion of international reserves and most expect it to remain that way. But even a small shift — whether as a hedge against Trump’s trade policies or in the name of diversification — could have big consequences. After shunning the common currency for years because of negative interest rates and the region’s persistent turmoil, reserve managers at some of the biggest central banks are now looking to add more euros, according to two heads of foreign-exchange strategy who’ve held regular discussions with them. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-26/as-trade-war-heats-up…

END

Mike Kosares:  the Petro-Yuan could displace the petro dollar and thus the USA dollar hegemony

(courtesy Kosares/GATA)

Mike Kosares: Petro-yuan could displace petro-dollar

 Section: 

9:20a SST Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The new “petro-yuan,” created by the oil futures contract that began trading in Shanghai this week, could mean a lot for the dollar and gold by displacing the petro-dollar, USAGold’s Mike Kosares writes. His analysis is headlined “‘This Is the Single Biggest Change in Capital Markets, Maybe of All Time’ — Union Bank Switzerland” and it’s posted at USAGold here:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/2018/03/27/the-single-biggest-change-in-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

 _____________________________________________________________________________________

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

 

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN 6.2936  /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 44.36 POINTS OR 1.40%  / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 768.30 POINTS OR 2.50%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 286.01 POINTS OR 1/34% /USA: YEN RISES TO 105.92/  

3. Europe stocks OPENED RED     /USA dollar index RISES TO 89.49/Euro FALLS TO 1.2393

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO . +.039/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 105.92/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 64.76  and Brent: 69.89

3f Gold DOWN/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.489%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.858% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.231%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.376?????????????????

3k Gold at $1336.80 silver at:16.47     7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 11/100 in roubles/dollar) 57.56

3m oil into the 64 dollar handle for WTI and 69 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 105.92 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9517 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1794 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.489%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.7607% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 3.016% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

S&P Futures Rebound From Tech Wreck, But 10Y Yield Breaks Key Support

Following yesterday’s violent and unexpected equity selloff, driven by a so-called “tech wreck” as the FANG+ index dropped by 5.7%, the most on record, and stood on the edge of a key support line precipice…

… this morning, global stocks are predictably lower across the globe, as the tech sector fallout spreads across Asia and Europe…

… although S&P futures are off session lows, with 2,600 providing a support level for the time being, and should that fail, all eyes will be on the 200-DMA, some 15 points lower.

As noted yesterday, on Tuesday US tech shares suffered their worst drop since the February rout, as investors were spooked by bad news from companies including Nvidia, Twitter and Facebook. As Bloomberg notes, the latest leg down for tech shares, which have been the driving force for much of the current bull market in global equities and represent the most popular investment for the hedge fund community, comes at a sensitive time. Stock markets trading with high valuations and tighter liquidity are already being shaken by protectionist moves by Donald Trump. His administration is mulling a crackdown on Chinese investments in technologies the U.S. considers sensitive, the latest step in his plan to punish China for violations of intellectual-property rights.

The tech rout spooked Asia, where the ASX 200 (-0.7%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.3%) tumbled, while weakness in commodities also contributed to the glum. Elsewhere, KOSPI (-1.3%) pharmaceutical and metal stocks joined the tech underperformance after reports stated South Korea steel exports to US would decline 30% under the new trade agreement and that South Korea will amend its premium pricing program for pharmaceuticals to allow participation of US drug makers. Hang Seng (-2.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.4%) were also dragged by the tech slide, while encouraging earnings from big 4 banks ICBC and China Construction Bank only provided brief support and was eventually engulfed by the stock rout.

Europe was no better, with equities (Eurostoxx -1.0%) extending the risk-averse tone seen in the US and Asia, triggered by a tech sell-off which prompted losses within the IT sector in Europe this morning, augmented by month- end flows. As such, semiconductors are the laggards with Dialog Semiconductors (-13.0%), Infineon (-4.0%), ASML Holding (-4.4%) and STMicroelectronics (-5.2%) the worst performers whereas utilities remain slightly supported. In terms of individual movers, Shire (+15.5%) is leading the FTSE 100 and lifting the healthcare sector (+0.5%) after Takeda confirmed to be considering an offer for the company.

Meanwhile, with most attention on equities, the big action overnight was in 10Y yields, where the growing tech turmoil forced 10Y yields out of the 20-bps range that’s held since early February.  On Wednesday, the 10Y benchmark dropped as much as three basis points Wednesday to 2.74 percent, the lowest level since Feb. 6, following an eight basis-point drop Tuesday.

The yield has broken below the key 50-day moving average for the first time since mid-December.

Commenting on the move, FTN strategist Jim Vogel wrote in a note that for those caught off-guard by the extent of the bond rally, the shift is “still not alarming but definitely worth watching current rates if equities can’t find their way home. As various tech and social media stories continue to get pummeled on a regular basis, however, trading at 2.805 percent and below is gaining ground.”

It could get worse: as Mark Cudmore warned this morning, positioning in Treasuries signals a shakeout could be in the offing. As of last week, hedge funds and other large speculators had a net short position in 10-year Treasury futures that was the close to record highs. A break of technical levels like moving averages could shift momentum and lead them to cover their bets to protect from further losses. In this context, BMO Capital now expects 2.671% as the next level in sight for the 10-year maturity, which may pause at 2.752 percent. BMO earlier this month said they’re confident that that yields already peaked for 2018.

Also notable, as Bloomberg points out it’s not just the 10-year maturity grappling with re-pricing. Eurodollars advanced by as much as five basis points on Wednesday, while the OIS market is now pricing in less than two Federal Reserve rate hikes for the remainder of the year.

In FX, just like yesterday, the USD has rallied against most G-10 peers again, with month/quarter end positioning still providing support, while the Yen is at session lows, with the USDJPY trading just shy of 105.90 after overnight China officially confirmed that Kim Jong Un met with Xi Jinping and discussed the upcoming meeting with Trump and his eagerness to denuclearize the Korean peninsula.

GBP an early outperformer after reports of an imminent proposal on the Irish border issue. In addition to the summit between China and North Korea, the yen also weakened following news that Japan’s Takeda is hoping to acquire the now bigger Shire PLC.

All core fixed income markets well supported, UST 2s10s re-approach flattest level of the year. Crude futures hold overnight losses after bearish API data, spot gold weighted by USD rally.

Bulletin Headine Summary from RanSquawk

  • European equities have extended losses after tech slipped on Wall St. and Asia
  • USD firmer vs. all G10 approaching quarter and Japanese financial year end
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US GDP, PCE Prices, Pending Home Sales, DoEs and Fed’s Bostic

Top Overnight News

  • The Trump administration is considering a crackdown on Chinese investments in technologies the U.S. deems sensitive by invoking a law reserved for national emergencies, among other options, according to people familiar with the matter
  • China confirmed Wednesday that Kim met with President Xi Jinping on a surprise visit to Beijing, and said the North Korean leader would be willing to give up his nuclear weapons and hold a summit with the U.S.
  • In this bull market alone there’s been five other corrections like this one, and it’s taken around seven months on average for equities to climb out of their hole. Based on that path, the current jitters won’t be fully eradicated until August
  • Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe says sanctions against North Korea must be kept until the country takes concrete steps to abandon nuclear weapons and missiles
  • China considers allowing more derivatives trading under bond connect and the country will steadily accelerate pace of bond market opening up, PBOC official Gao Fei says
  • Irish officials have been told to expect new plans “imminently” from U.K. on how it plans to avoid a post-Brexit hard border, The Times reports, citing sources
  • The U.S. Treasury finished its slate of bill auctions for the month, with their sale Tuesday of 4-week securities seeing good demand
  • Thanks to fresh blows to companies from Nvidia Corp. to Facebook Inc., the biggest industry in the S&P 500 Index dropped 3.5 percent, the biggest decline since the broad-market selloff reached its worst point on Feb. 8

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2,609.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1% to 363.90
  • MXAP down 1.4% to 172.41
  • MXAPJ down 1.6% to 562.73
  • Nikkei down 1.3% to 21,031.31
  • Topix down 1% to 1,699.56
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.5% to 30,022.53
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.4% to 3,122.29
  • Sensex down 0.4% to 33,035.44
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 5,789.47
  • Kospi down 1.3% to 2,419.29
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to 0.486%
  • Euro down 0.04% to $1.2398
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.7 bps to 1.619%
  • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 1.236%
  • Brent futures down 0.6% to $69.69/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,340.98
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 89.47

Asian equity markets traded negative across the board as the region followed suit from the losses on Wall St where trade concerns lingered and tech sold-off, while some also attributed the exacerbated pressure to flows heading into  month-end and Easter break. As such, ASX 200 (-0.7%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.3%) were lower as tech stocks conformed to the losses in their counterparts stateside, while weakness in commodities also contributed to the glum. Elsewhere, KOSPI (-1.3%) pharmaceutical and metal stocks joined the tech underperformance after reports stated South Korea steel exports to US would decline 30% under the new trade agreement and that South Korea will amend its premium pricing program for pharmaceuticals to allow participation of US drug makers. Hang Seng (-2.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.4%) were also dragged by the tech slide, while encouraging earnings from big 4 banks ICBC and China Construction Bank only provided brief support and was eventually engulfed by the stock rout. Finally, 10yr JGBs saw a tale of two-halves as they initially tracked the gains in T-notes amid a flight to quality from the stock market sell-off and with the BoJ also present in the market under its bond buying program, before gains were then pared on return from the Tokyo break in which prices returned flat

Top Asian News

  • JPMorgan Looks Beyond Finance to Hire Tech, Math Grads in Asia
  • Bank Indonesia’s Incoming Governor Pledges Growth, Stability
  • Time Is Running Out for the Philippine Exchange Merger Deal
  • Sri Lanka Plans Dollar Loans and Bonds as Maturing Debt Looms
  • Chung Family to Overhaul Hyundai Motor Group Ownership Structure

European equities (Eurostoxx -1.0%) have extended on the risk-averse tone seen in the US and Asia, triggered by a tech sell-off which prompted losses within the IT sector in Europe this morning, augmented by month-end flows. As such, semiconductors are the laggards with Dialog Semiconductors (-13.0%), Infineon (-4.0%), ASML Holding (-4.4%) and STMicroelectronics (-5.2%) the worst performers whereas utilities remain slightly supported. In terms of individual movers, Shire (+15.5%) is leading the FTSE 100 and lifting the healthcare sector (+0.5%) after Takeda confirmed to be considering an offer for the Co., although considerations are at a prelim stage and no approach has been made yet. Elsewhere, Melrose (-0.5%) have continued to defend their approach for GKN ahead of tomorrow’s deadline.

Top European News

  • Banca Carige Says Conditions Not Right for Planned Tier 2 Deal
  • Faurecia Says Signed Record Contract for Seats With BMW
  • It’s Back to the 80s for Brexit-Hit Broadcasters Without Deal

In FX, another rebalancing model is Usd positive for month, quarter and Japanese financial year end, albeit ‘moderately’, while a separate bank is looking to buy the Greenback vs the Pound, Loonie, Aud and Nok if global stocks fall further. Hence, the Dollar retains an underlying bid on dips and is firmer vs all G10 peers bar the Gbp, which is deriving some independent support on latest Brexit headlines (reports that an Irish border resolution is in the offing). Cable and Eur/Gbp are bucking the broader trend, with the former hovering just below 1.4200 after a retreat to test the first layer of bids said to be macro-related in the 1.4135-25 area, and the latter seeing some resistance around 0.8750. Eur/Usd is also holding up relatively well near 1.2400 where decent option expiry interest lies (1.6 bn), but also as tech support at the 100 HMA (1.2379) holds. In fact, the Eur is defying some end of March ‘strong’ selling calls and outperforming other majors, like the Sek and Nok in wake of weaker than expected retail sales data from  both Scandi nations overall. Even the Chf is weaker despite the resurgence of risk aversion, while its traditional safe- haven counterpart, Jpy, is caught between the aforementioned downturn in sentiment and more positive geopolitical vibes on the NK-SK-US front. Usd/Jpy rangy between 105.69 and 105.96 200 HMA and Fib levels respectively. Usd/Cad is back around 1.2900 despite constructive NAFTA negotiations, while Aud/Usd and Nzd/Usd remain bearish, as the former has breached its recent 0.7672 low and the latter tests support/bids at 0.7250.

In commodities, the commodities complex continues to be subdued amid the dampened risk appetite. WTI (-0.9%) and Brent (-0.6%) futures are extending losses with prices pressured by the surprise build in API crude inventories (5.321M vs. Exp. -0.300M). Additionally, the Iraqi oil Minister Luaibi stated that Iraq will not deviate from any OPEC decisions on crude supply; this follows the Saudi Crown Prince stating OPEC seeks a 10 to 20-year supply co-operation with Russia as well as other producers. Gold (-0.1%) slipped from a 5-week high as a firmer dollar is weighing on the yellow metal. Fears of a trade war continue to cast a shadow over the base metal market with copper (-0.6%) lower and Dalian iron ore futures slipping to their lowest since June shortly after the open.

Looking at the day ahead, datawise all eyes will be on the US with the third and final revisions due to be made for Q4 GDP, while the February advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories and pending home sales data are also   due out. The Fed’s Bostic is due to again make comments in the late afternoon.

US event calendar

  • 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.7%, prior 2.5%
    • Personal Consumption, est. 3.8%, prior 3.8%
    • GDP Price Index, est. 2.3%, prior 2.3%
    • Core PCE QoQ, est. 1.9%, prior 1.9%
  • 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $74.4b deficit, prior $74.4b deficit, revised $75.3b deficit
  • 8:30am: Retail Inventories MoM, prior 0.8%, revised 0.7%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.8%
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 2.0%, prior -4.7%; NSA YoY, prior -1.7%

DB’s Craig Nicol concludes the overnight wrap

Well, at least we can say that we’re getting used to this now. After things appeared eerily quiet throughout the morning and all the way up until the European close, US equities suffered more huge falls last night, undoing much of  the good work on Monday. The S&P 500 finished -1.73% – although stayed just above the 200-day moving average – and the Dow ended -1.43%. To put some perspective on things, the last four days have seen points moves for the  Dow of 345, 669, 425 and 724. That’s an average of 541 points. The average daily move in 2017 was just 68 points and there were only 3 days last year when there was a move of at least 300 points. Incredible.

What was striking about yesterday though was that bonds also finally got in on the act with 10y Treasury yields finally snapping out of a 22-day range to close below 2.80% for the first time since February 5th, eventually finishing at 2.776% (-7.7bps). The curve flattened too with 2s10s 7.0bps flatter. That puts it at the flattest since early January. Bunds also crept under 0.50% for the first time since January and they are now down 26bps from the 2018 high. We also couldn’t help but notice that the value of negative yielding bonds around the globe is back up to $8.8tn. This is after the combined value fell below $7.0tn in early February.

Anyway, the blame yesterday for equity markets – and the broader risk-off tone – was firmly placed at the hands of the tech sector again where it appears that there are more than a few chinks in the armour now. Indeed, tech names were down -3.47% in the S&P 500 while the Nasdaq tumbled -2.93% and notched up its fourth consecutive session whereby the index has moved at least 2% in either direction. The last time that happened was in late September 2011. The NYSE FANG index – which includes 10 of the largest global tech names – fell a whopping -5.63% and the most since 2014 when the index first started. It also lost a combined $134bn in market cap yesterday, which now means those names have lost $320bn in value since the index peaked back on March 12th. Facebook tumbled -4.87% and seems to be at the centre of any selloff related to the sector at the moment however news that Nvidia was suspending self-driving car testing and Tesla was undergoing another investigation related to a crash last year just compounded the pain. The Nasdaq equivalent of the VIX rose to 29.01 last night (up nearly 4 points from Monday) and is closing back in on the February high of 33.89.

Overnight, some of the focus has shifted to the news that China has confirmed North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un has indeed visited Beijing and met with China’s President Xi. Local Chinese press Xinhua reported Kim as saying that “the issue of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula can be resolved, if South Korea and the United States respond to our efforts with goodwill, create an atmosphere of peace and stability while taking progressive and synchronous measures for the realization of peace”. While there is no sign that an agreement has been made, the language is clearly a lot more conciliatory ahead of a proposed meeting between Kim and President Trump. Despite that development, bourses in Asia have followed the negative US lead from last night and are trading lower with the Nikkei (-1.77%), Kospi (-1.32%), Hang Seng (-1.03%), ASX 200 (-0.68%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.61%) all down as we type. The Yen is a shade weaker while the Korean won has been the biggest gainer this morning.

Moving on. As we noted at the top the wave of selling really started after Europe went home yesterday with the Stoxx 600 and DAX actually rebounding with +1.21% and +1.56% gains. There was a slight mid-afternoon blip which  came after headlines hit the wires saying that the US was moving to curb Chinese investments in the US. However, that news was nothing new and it was pointed out that the share of foreign direct investment held by China in the US, while growing, is still very small and the bigger issue remains trade policies in this ongoing game of chess between the two nations.

So, while the moves late in the evening for the tech sector dominated, there were some other snippets worth highlighting from the last 24 hours. Over at the Fed, an interview by the WSJ with Atlanta Fed’s Bostic  (neutral/voter) revealed that the Fed President is an advocate of gradually raising rates, however cited that he was unsure over how the economy might respond to the planned tax cuts and increased government spending next year, which in turn could complicate the outlook for monetary policy.

The ECB’s Nowotny also spoke yesterday morning and stuck to the largely consensus playbook that the ECB should be able to cut stimulus after September, with a decision likely to be made in the summer. Nowotny also cited that there are two lessons to learn from the Fed, one being to act when necessary and the other is to be careful and communicate in a timely fashion. There was also some data in Europe yesterday and it was a touch on the softer side. The first was the economic sentiment index for the Euro area which fell a little bit more than expected in February to 112.6 (vs. 113.3 expected) from 114.2 in January – matching the decline in the PMIs somewhat. The money and credit aggregates report from the ECB also showed a deceleration in M3 money supply to 4.2% yoy from 4.6% while on the credit side growth slowed to 3.0% from 3.2%. It’s worth pointing out that a measure of economic surprises in the Eurozone is hovering at the lowest since March 2016 right now which is in contrast to a similar  measure in the US which is only just off the December 2017 highs and the highest since the GFC.

Staying with Europe, local Italian press and Bloomberg reported yesterday morning that Five Star was supposedly offering some ministerial positions to the Northern League. The read-through was that this showed 5SM’s intention to win support from the NL and in turn pressing the latter to form a government, but without the whole centre-right. The bigger question is how the NL balance potentially trying to reach a deal with the 5SM, but without losing centre-right support, which could jeopardize Salvini’s (leader of the NL) ability to become prime minister. As we said yesterday there is still a long way to go so it’s likely that this ebbs and flows for some time.

Here in the UK, the Times newspaper has reported overnight that the UK is to offer a hard border resolution imminently, with details beyond just the so-called backstop plan. Sterling is up another +0.22% this morning and is approaching the February highs again of $1.426.

For completeness, in terms of the remaining data flow from yesterday, in the US the March conference board consumer confidence index fell 2.3pts from last month’s 17 year high to a still solid level of 127.7 (vs. 131.0 expected), with a modest mom decline in both the present situation and expectations index. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index was below consensus at 15 (vs. 22 expected) while the January S&P Corelogic house price index was above market at +0.75% mom (vs. +0.6% expected), leading to annual growth of +6.4% yoy. Back in Europe, the final reading on the Euro area’s March consumer confidence was unrevised at 0.1 while the business climate index was a touch below at 1.34 (vs. 1.36 expected). Elsewhere, Spain’s March CPI was below market at +1.3% yoy (vs. 1.5% expected).

Looking at the day ahead, datawise all eyes will be on the US with the third and final revisions due to be made for Q4 GDP, while the February advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories and pending home sales data are also   due out. The Fed’s Bostic is due to again make comments in the late afternoon. In Europe consumer confidence prints in Germany and France as well as March CBI retail sales data in the UK is due.

end

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 44.36 POINTS OR 1.40% /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 768.30 POINTS OR 2.50% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 286.01/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.75%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.2936/Oil DOWN to 64.76 dollars per barrel for WTI and 69.89 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE RED   .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.2936 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.2796 /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR . CHINA IS NOT VERY HAPPY TODAY POOR  CHINESE MARKETS/WITH  NEW TRUMP TRADE DEALS DISCUSSED WEAKER GLOBAL MARKETS/WEAKER CURRENCY ) 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

North Korea/China

end

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

END

c) REPORT ON CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

France/Germany

Germany and France clash over what to do with USA car tariffs.  Germany due to its huge export business wants to make concessions.  France says no concessions.  However it is ultimately the EU and not just Germany and France that must make that decision

(courtesy zerohedge)

France And Germany Clash Over US Car Tariffs

With several weeks remaining until steel and aluminum tariffs introduced a few weeks ago by the Trump administration take effect, the US and its largest trading partners are mired in behind-the-scenes negotiations to strike a deal that could win them an exemption from some or all of the tariffs.

And while recent leaks have focused primarily on the talks between Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin,Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese economy czar Liu He, Bloomberg today reported that there’s a growing rift between Germany and France regarding how they should respond to the US tariffs.

Germany is willing to offer the US some concessions to protect its export-led economy; however, other EU members – including France – believe the bloc should offer no concessions. The EU is still trying to work out a common response to the Trump tariffs.

Chart

At stake is a trade relationship worth some $640 billion in 2016. Germany is in favor of any EU deal covering new rules on tariffs for a series of products including cars, machinery, foodstuffs and pharmaceuticals. That stance is not shared by France, which wants to focus on pressuring China over issues such as subsidies and overcapacity in the steel industry.

Chancellor Angela Merkel and her government are already feeling out the German car industry and whether they might be able to convince it to support a reduction to the EU’s 10% tariff on auto imports. Carmakers reportedly responded positively to the idea.

“Dialogue with the US must continue at the highest political level,” the VDA German car industry body said in a statement when asked about the report. “We advocate sustainable and reliable agreements that are WTO-compliant. In the interests of fair and free trade, it is necessary to dismantle each other’s trade barriers and to agree a new framework.”

German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier, who met last week with US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, recently told reporters that he hadn’t made an offer. He later denied reports that he pitched lowering auto tariffs.

“It is only the EU which negotiates, united and together. I have neither made any offers nor any promises,” he said. A spokeswoman for his ministry added that he had kept EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom fully informed on the discussions.

Trump spoke on Tuesday with both Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, according to separate statements from the White House. Trump and Merkel discussed joining forces to counter China. Macron reminded Trump that European steel and aluminum exports are not a security threat to the US. Trump has largely predicated his protectionist push on national security concerns.

Merkel is trying to persuade Trump to give up on forging bilateral agreements with each European state and instead agree to common EU guidelines in accordance with WTO rules. Under those rules, countries can only offer concessions that lower trade barriers below the WTO standard if the reduction covers “substantially all” commerce – not individual products and sectors. The average EU tariff on US imports is around 3%, while the US average duty is around 2.4%.

end

8. EMERGING MARKET

VENEZUELA

We are now witnessing child gangs forming in order to fight for food scraps

(courtesy Mac Slavo/SHFTplan.com)

Socialist Utopia: Child Gangs Fight For “Quality Garbage” With Machetes In Venezuela

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

While many politicians and civilians in the United States focus on making the country a socialist regime, Venezuela’s children are forming gangs and using machetes to fight each other for “quality garbage” so they have something to eat.

Socialism is only good for those already at the very top.  It’s a very important lesson for anyone seeking to “remove the wealth” from the 1%.  Never assume that the rich will allow you vote their money away in the first place. The other issue most socialists forget that the 1% is made up the very wealthy politicians from both parties who will profit immensely from the implementation of socialism.  Of course, when that does happen children starve and become violent as a means to survive and have just one more meal.

The Miami Herald has detailed the lives of children forced to live under the harsh realities of socialism. Liliana, at the age of only 16, has become the mother figure for a gang of Venezuelan children and young adults called the Chacao, named after the neighborhood they’ve claimed as their territory. The 15 members, ranging in age from 10 to 23, work together to survive vicious fights for “quality” garbage in crumbling, shortage-plagued, socialist dystopia of Venezuela. Their weapons are knives and sticks and machetes. And their only prize is garbage that contains food scrapes barely good enough to eat.

Many of the children in the Chacao gang flock to a life of violence but a family-oriented one because there’s no other option if they want to eat.  There are at least 10 gangs in the capital of Caracas according to social workers and police estimate. “There were always children on the street in Venezuela but now we are seeing a new phenomenon — kids who get more food on the street than at their homes,” says Beatriz Tirado, who leads “Angeles de Calle,” or Street Angels, a non-governmental charity.

“Our kids are finding ways to survive because neither in their homes nor in their communities is there enough food,” explains social worker Roberto Patino, who has established 29 public diners all over the country to feed the massive numbers of hungry children. But Patino also bemoans that there are not enough resources to help the children get their lives back on track let alone feed them properly. For now, many have turned to trash bags as a source of nutrition.

But the gang life is dangerous for the children. Often, they venture into the more affluent neighborhoods of the politicians. One of those territories is Las Mercedes. It has high-end restaurants that attract the political elite Venezuelans. Because garbage bags there often contain leftovers and even untouched food, they are sought after by a number of the gangs. The clashes over bags of trash can be deadly.

The children often take to the consumption of street drugs at an early age as well.  They become criminals, tossing the law out the window to survive.  They steal, assault people, and use drugs like crack, sometimes smoked in makeshift pipes made from the parts of discarded plastic dolls, but for a very disturbing reason.“When you smoke you don’t feel hungry,” explains Patricio.

The few failures of capitalism are much preferable to the few success of socialism. Although one can argue that there haven’t been any successes with regards to socialism unless you count the lining of the pockets of the politicians who rule over everyone else.

END

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.2395 DOWN .0060/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL IN THE RED   

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.75 UP  0.214 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/DEADLY UNWINDING OF YEN CARRY TRADE

GBP/USA 1.4110 DOWN .01360  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.2871 UP .0034 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 60 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.2324; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 44.36  OR 1.40% /   Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 768.30 POINTS OR 2.50%  /AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.75% / EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL DEEPLY IN THE RED

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 286.01 POINTS OR 1.34%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks OPENED DEEPLY IN THE RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 768.30 POINTS OR 2.50%  / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 44.36 OR 1.40%   /

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 075% /

Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED DOWN 286.01 POINTS OR 1/34%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED 

Gold very early morning trading: 1337.30

silver:$16.46

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.7601% !!! DOWN 1  IN POINTS from MONDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/ 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.016 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early  WEDNESDAY morning: 89.49 UP 13  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.641% DOWN 3  in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.0.039% up 1/10    in basis points yield from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.213% DOWN 2  IN basis point yield from TUESDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.841 down 3 POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 63 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:FALLS TO +.503%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2352 down .0058 (Euro down 58 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 106.28 UP 0.818 Yen DOWN 82 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.4109 DOWN .0068( POUND DOWN 68 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2886 down  .0007 Canadian dollar UP 7 Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $63.93

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN 58 to trade at 1.2352

The Yen FELL to 106.28 for a LOSS of 82 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND FELL BY 68 basis points, trading at 1.4109/

The Canadian dollar ROSE by 7 basis points to 1.2886/ WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO : $63.95

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.2980
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.039%  UP 1/10   IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 6 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.7534% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.008  DOWN 5    in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index,89.76 UP 39 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED UP 44.50 POINTS OR 0.64%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 30,12 POINTS OR 0.25%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 14.70 POINTS OR 0.29%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 81.40 POINTS OR 0.86%

Italian MIB: CLOSED  UP 121.61 POINTS OR 0.55%

The Dow closed DOWN 9.29 POINTS OR 0.04%

NASDAQ WAS DOWN 59.58 Points OR 0.85% 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 63.95 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 68.90 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 57.76 UP 39/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 39 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +.503% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$64.64

BRENT: $69.80

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.782%   THIS RAPID ASSENT IN YIELD IS VERY DANGEROUS/DERIVATIVES START TO BLOW UP/ 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.0198%/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.2308 DOWN .0100  (DOWN 100 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.89 UP 1.408/ YEN UP 141 BASIS POINTS/ very dangerous as yen carry traders are getting killed/yen continues to rise despite the NYSE rising. however gold is now breaking away from yen influence.

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 90.09 UP  71 cent(s)/dangerous as the lower the dollar the higher the inflation.

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.4079: DOWN 0.0079  (FROM LAST NIGHT DOWN 79 POINTS)

Canadian dollar: 1.2927 DOWN 48 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.503%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  22.66  CLOSED  UP 0.16

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.30%  ..

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Musk Massacred, Bezos Battered, & Zuck Still F**ked As Stocks Fail To Bounce

WTF, NO BTFD? LOL, STFU!

Well, that wasn’t supposed to happen…NO DIP BOUGHT! NO DEAD CAT BOUNCE AT ALL…

The Dow is still green on the week, Nasdaq red…

The S&P 500 managed to hold above its 200DMA once again…

FANG Stocks sank again – down 15.5% from the highs at the lows today…

Amazon was ugly – biggest 2-day drop in 4 years – but bounced a little when The White House said any impact on Bezos wasnt planned … yet…Remember as goes Amazon, so goes the market…

Not a great day for Elon Musk…

Bank stocks trod water today too…

LIBOR-OIS resumed its spike higher today and so did global bank credit risk…58.67

IG Credit spreads continue to widen in US and Europe…

European HY spreads are accelerating up to US HY spreads…

Bonds led stocks lower once again…

Treasury yields were mixed today with the long-end lower and the short-end higher…

Flattening the curve dramatically to fresh 11 year lows…

2s30s is now 72bps!!

NOTE – the probability of 4 rate hikes in 2018 (i.e 3 more) has tumbled below 20%…

The Dollar Index spiked again as a flight to quality continued – erasing the post-Fed-rate-hike plunge…

Yen tumbled, Yuan fell, and Hong Kong Dollar slumped back towards the low-end of the peg band…

RBOB ended the day higher (decent draw today) but WTI was lower – pump-and-dumping after inventory data, then drifting higher all day after Europe closed…

Copper stabilized but crude and PMs were monkeyhammered as the dollar rallied…

Gold has erased its post-Fed rate hike gains…

Ripple and Bitcoin trod water today but the rest of crypto was ugly with Litecoin worst…

Nasdaq has caught back down to cryptos…

Finally, Jay Powell better stop this insanity soon or else…

Bonus Chart: Will it happen again? US 1929, US 1987, and Japan 1990…

END
Early trading:
an excellent commentary from Mark Cudmore who strongly believes that the collapsing 10 yr yield is just the beginning and yields  will deteriorate further
(courtesy Cudmore)

Trader: “The Probability Of 10Y Yields Collapsing Is Much Higher Than Most Realize”

One day after he correctly warned that equities have not yet bottomed – just hours before the Dow Jones tumbled from up over 200 to down over 400 points at one point as the tech sector imploded – this morning former Lehman trader and current Bloomberg macro commentator Mark Cudmore issues another warning, this time about Treasuries, which he thinks may be poised for a sharp spike higher as yields tumble. He explains why in his latest Macro View column below:

Treasuries Jump May Be the Start of Something Bigger: Macro View

The probability of Treasury 10-year yields collapsing is much higher than most investors seem to realize. The readjustment in pricing may be just getting started.

It’s not going to take too much for serious discussion to begin over the possibility the Fed’s hiking cycle may be at an end, or near an end, already.

This doesn’t even need to become the base case for yields to slump, it just needs to become a plausible- enough outcome for the market to squeeze out the large speculative short position in Treasuries.

The building blocks for this narrative are already in place. Thursday’s PCE inflation data may provide the required catalyst.

Financial conditions have tightened considerably in the last two months. Libor spreads have widened significantly — because of structural issues — but that still acts as effective policy tightening.

Trade, politics and commodities are all going to start weighing on the growth outlook. The slump in equities may soon be significant enough to be a concern for the Fed because of the impact on consumer sentiment, which has remained a bright spot in U.S. data, and the wealth effect.

As the manufacturing center for so much that the U.S. consumes, China’s PPI has had an excellent correlation with U.S. CPI in recent years. The former is still trending down after both measures peaked in February 2017. The March data for both is due April 11. Given how industrial metals and agricultural prices have slumped this month, there are strong reasons to expect China PPI to slide again.

The technical break lower in yields was made Tuesday. Fundamentals are supportive of the move. Positioning is offside and therefore any related corrective adjustment will quickly add downside momentum to yields.

Tomorrow brings February’s PCE data, supposedly one of the Fed’s preferred inflation measures. The consensus forecast is for the core number to climb to 1.6% year-on-year. That paltry rate of inflation would still be the highest since since March last year.

A miss of just 0.1 of a percentage point and investors will start considering the possibility that inflation may already have peaked, and hence perhaps so has the Fed’s rate-hiking cycle. That would put the cat amongst the short Treasury pigeons (positions).

end

Afternoon trading:  yield curve collapses

(courtesy zerohedge)

Is The Fed Panicking: Yield Curve Tumbles To Fresh 11-Year Lows

Despite the stock market’s Amazon-bounce gains, US Treasury yields are lower and the yield curve flatter once again – tumbling to its flattest since Oct 2007.

Deja vu all over again…

10Y Yields are holding below 2.80%…

And the yield curve has crashed to fresh flats not seen since Oct 2007…

The entire curve is rolling over…

As a reminder, Bloomberg notes that according to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Jan. 30-31 meeting, the most recent for which minutes are available, showed that some policy makers thought it important “to monitor the effects of policy firming on the slope of the yield curve,” noting the strong association between curve inversions and recessions.

Which confirms what The San Francisco Fed warned…  about the flattening of the yield curve

[it] is a strikingly accurate predictor of future economic activity.

Every U.S. recession in the past 60 years was preceded by a negative term spread, that is, an inverted yield curve.

Furthermore, a negative term spread was always followed by an economic slowdown and, except for one time, by a recession.”

Furthermore, as the two Fed authors explain below, the recent decline in the Treasury curve is sending recession probabilities notably higher.

end

We now have the finalized GDP figures for the 4th quarter and thus for the entire year:

Q4 grew at 2.9%. For the year: 2.3%. Technically the GDP never grew due to the deflator (inflation indicator) used.  They always fudge the true inflation numbers downward.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Q4 GDP Revised Sharply Higher To 2.9% As US Economy Grew 2.3% In 2017

After the virtually unchanged first revision to the original 2.5% Q4 GDP print, analysts were expecting a modest improvement in today’s final revision to the GDP estimate from the last quarter of 2017. However, the final number ended up being materially higher than expected, with the 3rd Q4 GDP estimate rising at an annualized 2.9% (2.88% to be precise), above the 2.7% estimate, and well above the 2.5% revised number, entirely due to a small upward revision in personal spending, and a smaller drag from inventory destocking.

And with the final number now in, we now know the US economy grew at a rate of 2.3% in 2017, well above the 1.5% 2016 growth rate (if below the 2.9% in 2015), thanks to the following quarterly growth rates: 1.2%, 3.1%, 3.2%, and 2.9%.

The upward revision to real GDP growth was accounted for by revisions to consumer spending on services and to  private inventory investment:

  • Personal Consumption rose from 2.58% to 2.75% of the bottom line GDP
  • Fixed Investment was virtually unchanged (from 1.29% to 1.31%)
  • Private Inventories were a far smaller drag, shrinking from -0.7% to 0.53%
  • Net Trade was also flat, revised from -1.13% to -1.16%
  • Government also barely moved, from 0.49% to 0.51%.

Consumer spending rose at an annualized 4.0% in 4Q after rising 2.2% prior quarter, beating estimates of 3.8% (as noted above, this contributed 2.75% of the final 2.88% Q4 GDP number).

In terms of numbers that the Fed will focus on, prices of goods and services increased 2.5% in the fourth quarter after increasing 1.7% in the third quarter. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 2.0% after increasing 1.6% .

Meanwhile, the GDP price index rose 2.3% in 4Q after rising 2.1% prior quarter; while core PCE q/q rose 1.9% in 4Q after rising 1.3% prior quarter, in line with expectations.

Today’s release also disclosed that corporate profits decreased 0.1 percent at a quarterly rate in the fourth quarter after increasing 4.3 percent in the third quarter.  Profits of nonfinancial corporations increased 1.5% in the fourth quarter, profits of financial corporations decreased 3.0%, and profits from the rest of the world decreased 1.3%.  On an annual basis, corporate profits were up 2.7% in 4Q after rising 5.4% prior quarter.

Overall, a strong end to the quarter and year, which however will mean that Q1 growth will have been pulled forward, and we expect downward revisions to Q1 GDP estimates later today.

end

Wholesale inventories surge but not retail inventories.  We must wait and see if these numbers correspond to sales.This will be a plus to Q1 GDP final numbers

(courtesy zerohedge)

“If We Build It…?” – Wholesale Inventories Surge Most In 5 Years

Boding well for Q1 GDP, Wholesale inventories accelerated further off January’s jump, rising 1.1% MoM in February (well above the 0.5% rise expected). This is the biggest monthly jump since Oct 2013.

While wholesale inventories built notably, retail inventory growth slowed from +0.7% MoM in January to +0.4% MoM in February…

No detail on sales for now to be able to judge just how much this is a ‘field of dreams’ number out of phase with consumption, but the wholesale beat will likely mean upgrades to Q1 GDP estimates are on their way.

Just remember, American consumers are saturated with debt just to maintain living standards, so “building it” may not be enough to ‘create’ consumption.

end

Pending home sales tumble year over year but gain month over month:  3.1%

(courtesy zerohedge)

Pending Home Sales Tumble Year-Over-Year

Headlines proclaim housing ‘fixed’ as pending home sales jumped 3.1% MoM in Feb (better than expected 2.0% gain), rebounding from a downwardly revised January collapse of 5.0%.

Bloomberg notes that while the month-over-month gain shows demand for housing is still getting support from steady hiring, the market is facing several headwinds. Buyers are up against a persistent shortage of affordable listings to choose from, property prices continue to climb, and mortgage costs are rising. What’s more, the Realtors group expects winter weather to weigh on demand in the Northeast.

However, on a non-adjusted basis, home sales are down 4.4% YoY.

“The expanding economy and healthy job market are generating sizeable homebuyer demand, but the miniscule number of listings on the market and its adverse effect on affordability are squeezing buyers and suppressing overall activity, Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.

“Homeowners are already staying in their homes at an all-time high before selling and any situation where they remain put even longer only exacerbates the nation’s inventory crunch,” he said.

The NAR’s 2017 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers showed the median tenure a homeowner stayed in their house before selling was 10 years, the highest in records back to 1981.

Baltimore is in a mess:  new audit exposes to city of mismanagement of both Federal and state grants
(courtesy zerohedge)

Bombshell New Audit Exposes Baltimore City’s Mismanagement Of Federal, State Grants

This might not surprise you at the very least, but a new financial audit of how Baltimore City manages millions of dollar in federal and state grants has found top senior officials cannot account for how those dollars were spent.

The Baltimore Sun reports city auditors have unearthed some very troubling mismanagement concerns when it comes to Baltimore’s finances: “Grant money coming into government coffers is not balancing out with what city agencies are spending.”

“The city is not able to establish accurate balances of grant accounts,” Deputy City Auditor Audrey Askew, CPA told Baltimore’s spending panel last week.

In a shocking response, Askew warned the spending panel: “The city could lose its much-needed [grant] funding,” because of its reckless accounting practices.

According to the Baltimore Sun, the city “receives nearly $448 million in grants or about 16 percent of its $2.8 billion budget.” In other words, Baltimore City risks losing almost a half-billion dollars in critical funding, during a turbulent environment for the city, as total population has hit a 100-year low and violent crime has surged to the highest levels in decades.

City Council President Bernard C. “Jack” Young expressed outrage over the findings, arguing that grant management problems should have been fixed a long time ago.

“I don’t understand how we can have a problem with grants,” said Young, a member of the spending board. “That has to really stop. If the grants don’t add up … the federal government is going to come and they’re going to want their money. We’re going to owe thousands, maybe millions of dollars.”

Finance Director Henry Raymond told the Board of Estimates that he has “appointed employees to oversee grant management and that the problem would not be repeated next year.”

Raymond said, “the unbalanced grant ledgers in the last fiscal year are an accounting issue — not the result of waste or abuse.”

“We’re training agencies on how to properly use budget account numbers,” Raymond added. “Staff at the agencies are using outdated or incorrect grant account numbers.”

Askew also told the spending panel her team’s audit discovered a “lack of communication” between organizations that receive grants and the city’s department of finance office.

“A lack of formal accounting processes made it impossible to confirm whether grants were being spent for their intended purposes,” Askew revealed to the spending panel.

Young said it does not “take a rocket scientist” to develop a new system of accountability in administering grant money to organizations throughout the city.

“This is serious business,” he told Raymond. “I do not take excuses.”

Young then uttered the unthinkable — dropping a bombshell that made the liberal leaders of the collapsing city cringe; he suggested “holding back money from city agencies until they get their grant accounting in order.”

Even Mayor Catherine Pugh told Raymond “there really does need to be a closer checking.”

Baltimore’s financial mismanagement problem of tracking grant money has existed for years. The Baltimore Sun adds,

“Several previous examinations have found that city officials have failed to properly account for millions of dollars in grant funds. Each time finance officials have pledged to fix the issues, as they did on Wednesday.”

In 2014, city auditors found local agencies could not account for $40 million in grants from federal, state, and other various sources. The financial audit “blamed poor budgeting and oversight, outdated policies and inconsistent accounting procedures,” said the Baltimore Sun.

Coincidentally, Mayor Catherine Pugh did not have an issue supplying more than 60 taxpayer-funded buses for 3,000 kids to the March For Our Lives rally in Washington, D.C last weekend.Here is what we said:

“Kevin Rector, a crime reporter for the Baltimore Sun Newspaper, recorded Baltimore Mayor Catherine Pugh on Tuesday outside City Hall, shouting through a bullhorn to several hundred zombified students, of how she wants to provide 60 taxpayer-funded buses – to send more than 3,000 students to the March For Our Lives rally in Washington, D.C., scheduled for March 24.”

Here is how social media reacted to the audit: 

One Twitter user said, “Hmm, strange how Baltimore found the money to bus 1000s of students to a gun control march.”

#JeSuisMireille Cameron Gray@Cameron_Gray

Hmm, strange how Baltimore found the money to bus 1000s of students to a gun control march https://twitter.com/FOXBaltimore/status/976903132226686976 

Another said, “Lost millions… Bussed 1000’s of kids to DC protests…”

̤♰Donny♰@sixbennetts

Lost millions…
Bussed 1000’s of kids to DC protests…
My face when…
😶👌@TheDemocratshttps://twitter.com/FOXBaltimore/status/976903132226686976 

“At least they found enough money to bus all of those kids to the gun control rally,” said a concerned American.

FOX Baltimore@FOXBaltimore

AUDIT: Baltimore can’t account for how millions of dollars in state and federal grants were spent
http://foxbaltimore.com/news/local/audit-baltimore-unable-to-account-for-how-grants-spent 

GunDad@gundad790

At least they found enough money to bus all of those kids to the gun control rally.

Investigative Reporter WBAL said, “Baltimore’s annual audit of city spending/revenue shows in plain view how public safety, mostly policing, dwarfs all other spending. It is that very tall column on the left.”

Jayne Miller@jemillerwbal

Baltimore’s annual audit of city spending/revenue shows in plain view how public safety, mostly policing, dwarfs all other spending. It is that very tall column on the left

We are going to leave you with a dialogue below from Ernest Hemingway’s 1926 novel, The Sun Also Rises; as it is an excellent description of the current environment in Baltimore City. 

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.

“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

end

Part iii/David Stockman

Who Needs Wall Street When You Can Have A Monetary Unicorn?

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

The single most important price in all of capitalism is the interest rate—-and at all points on the maturity curve. And the single most important truth about honest interest rates is that they must be discovered by markets, not imposed by the state.

We got to ruminating about those core propositions when we read that San Francisco Fed head, John Williams, may be headed toward the true #2 job at the Fed. That is, President of the New York Fed—-the joint that actually runs the casinos domiciled in the canyons of Wall Street.

We did not burst out laughing exactly, but nearly so. After all, why do you even need Wall Street if you are going to have John Williams running the joint?

Recall that Dr. Williams claims to see a financial apparition that no one has ever touched, measured, photographed, X-rayed or otherwise proven the existence of. We are referring, of course, to the “Neutral Rate of Interest”.

By contrast, Dr. Williams is certain that he has spotted it, measured it and completely understood it. Indeed, he is so certain that in recent times it has been extraordinarily low, that he wants to run the entire $19.7 trillion US economy on the basis of it.

That is, peg actual interest rates in the money market based on a theoretical rate that might as well be the equivalent of a Monetary Unicorn. That’s because no one on the bond and bill trading desks of Wall Street has ever seen it, or ever will.

Not only that, but Dr. Williams now suggests that we actually need even more inflation than the sacred 2.00% target to cure whatever ails the US economy, and that his Monetary Unicorn told him so. Thus, as per the AM’s Wall Street Journal:

His influential research at the Fed includes his work with Thomas Laubach, a top Fed economist, on identifying the neutral rate of interest: the inflation-adjusted rate that neither spurs nor curbs growth. Understanding how to glean this unobservable rate is critical to setting Fed interest-rate policy.

Mr. Williams has argued, and many other officials have come to agree, that the neutral rate fell very low during the financial crisis and recession and hasn’t recovered much since. This conclusion became a key factor behind the Fed’s thinking in keeping its own benchmark federal-funds rate very low in recent years and then raising it slowly and cautiously.

More recently, Mr. Williams has been outspoken in calling on Fed officials to rethink their 2% inflation target, and allow periods where inflation might run higher to make up for times where it runs lower.

That’s right. There is not a pittance of evidence that 2.00% inflation is better than 1.00% inflation, but Dr. Williams wants to up the ante to 3.00% in order to make up for lost ground during the alleged “low-flation” of recent years.

Stated differently, he wants to empower the Fed to manage the entire financial system by targeting the inflation index level, not just the annual rate of gain; and to do so based on a invisible price of money (the Neutral Rate of Interest) that no one on Wall Street has ever seen; nor has anyone else with real financial skin in the game.

And they want to put him in charge of the casino!

Needless to say, the gamblers down there will doubtless think they have died and gone to carry trade heaven.

So at this point it is useless to say that you can’t make this stuff up—because they do day in and day out in our central bank driven financial fantasy land.

But perhaps the sheer irony of sending Dr. Williams to Wall Street at least provides an occasion to note the obvious. Namely, monetary central planning as practiced by the Fed and other central banks is the very antithesis of sound finance because its very modus operandi is based on setting administered debt prices that vary from the free market, and in recent times by considerable amounts.

Otherwise, why call it “emergency policy”; or if the variance from market prices is held to be minor, why bother in the first place?

Stated differently, if the central banks are doing what they claim—steering the economy through non-market interest rates and asset prices—it all boils down to a simple proposition: Namely, that central banks are in the business of materially falsifying market based financial asset prices (debt is somebody’s asset), and that’s all to the good.

Not being in the Cool Aid drinkers camp, we are inclined to ask: Why in the world would you believe that?

For instance, why would the 12 members of the FOMC be better equipped to price BBB corporate debt, than the daily tug and haul of tens of thousands of traders, issuers and bond managers?

When put that baldly it’s pretty obvious that the academics and apparatchiks who dominate the FOMC don’t have a clue about risks and rewards in this border-line region between junk and investment grade, where more than half of so-called investment grade bonds are now rated.

In fact, it is not even a close call because by definition BBB issuers are in risky businesses, have risky balance sheets and compete in highly competitive and dynamically changing, not to say unstable, global markets. After all, there is a reason why BBBs are not meant for the accounts of blue-haired widows.

Of course, we do not mean that the monetary politburo literally sets the price of BBB corporates like traders do in each separate transaction, but they are priced at a spread off the 10-year UST. And we do know that in the last 20 years the Fed has expanded its balance sheet from $400 billion to $4.4 trillion.

That means, in turn, that it purchased $4.o trillion of USTs and their GSE cousins. So doing, it drove up the price of the 10-year benchmark, encouraged front-running speculators to do the same, and also forced mercantilist central banks abroad to sterilize these dollar emissions via FX interventions and purchase of even more USTs.

In all, the Fed’s $4 trillion bond buying spree since 1997 triggered a whole bunch of yield repression in the US sovereign debt market, thereby triggering a whole lot of consternation—sometimes even panic—among bond portfolio managers (PMs). So they responded to falsified benchmark bond prices by stretching mightily for yield.

And one place the yield chasers landed was in the corporate BBB sector which more than quadruped in size during this period. That, and also, it fell like a stone in terms of yield and the carry cost to issuers.

As shown by the blue line in the chart, during the halcyon days of the tech boom, BBB yields hovered around 7.5% prior to the recession triggered spike after 2000. Since the CPI averaged about 2.5%during the second half of the 1990s, call the real yield about 5.0%.

By the same token, the 5-6% nominal yield during the Greenspan mortgage/credit boom over 2003-2007 translated to 3-4% in real terms.  And then came the finale of the Fed bond buying spree after the 2008 financial meltdown, causing nominal yields on the BBB to hover around just 3.75% during most of the last six years.

Contrary to the low-flation narrative, of course, CPI inflation has not dropped by a commensurate amount, averaging about 1.75% during recent years.  So the Fed price-setting committee (i.e. the FOMC) did apparently get the real corporate BBB yield down to just 2.0%.

What happened?

Why, corporate America did well and truly go on a borrowing spree. Back in early 1997, corporate debt outstanding totaled $4.6 trillion and it computed to 54% of GDP. By contrast, by Q3 2017 it had soared to $14 trillion, and amounted to 72% of GDP.

There is absolutely no reason to assume that somehow the US corporate sector was “underleveraged” in 1997, and that the Fed’s monetary central planners helped to get it properly buried in debt.

Still, had the debt ratio stayed at the 54% of GDP level, corporate debt today would be a cool $3.5 trillion lower.

The theory of monetary central planners like Dr Williams, of course, is that they were just helping the business community borrow hand-over-fist—-that’s what the nearly $10 trillion gain since 1997 amounts to—-in order to invest at higher rates than slow-witted corporate executives would do on their own.

We could say wrong again, but why bother?

The data is dispositive, but completely ignored by our omnipotent monetary central planners. In fact, net investment has been heading straight downhill on a trend basis since the late 1990s, and is still 35% lower after 10 years of Fed stimulated “recovery” and drastically falsified interest rates, as illustrated by corporate BBBs.

Then again, maybe the C-suites are not as slow-witted as Dr. Williams presumes. Since 1997 they have cycled upwards of $20 trillion into financial engineering plays. That is, stock buybacks, M&A deals, leveraged recapitalizations and cash extractions of every imaginable shape and kind have flowed back into the canyons of Wall Street, inflating stock prices and options values along the way.

As we said, the Fed is in the fundamental business of falsifying interest rates and other financial asset prices. The problem is, it fuels financial bubbles and malinvestments, not capitalist prosperity.

By now that much should be obvious. Except to the likes of power-seeking apparatchiks like Dr. Williams who would run the world based on financial fairy tales rather than allow free markets to do the honest work of price discovery.

end

SWAMP STORIES

My goodness!! The USA is heading for civil war:  The California AG is now using Trump over the wording of citizenship in the new 2020 census

(courtesy zerohedge)

California AG, Eric Holder To Sue Trump Administration Over Citizenship Question On 2020 Census

California’s Attorney General, Xavier Becerra (D) said a new question included on the 2020 census asking for citizenship status is illegal, and he will sue the Trump administration to remove it.

“We’re prepared to do what we must to protect California from a deficient Census. Including a citizenship question on the 2020 census is not just a bad idea — it is illegal,” said Becerra in a statement.

Xavier Becerra@AGBecerra

: Filing suit against @realdonaldtrump‘s Administration over decision to add question on . Including the question is not just a bad idea — it is illegal: https://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/openforum/article/Citizenship-question-on-2020-census-may-result-in-12783055.php 

“Including a citizenship question on the 2020 census is not just a bad idea — it is illegal,” Becerra wrote in a Monday San Francisco Chronicle opinion piece along with California Secretary of State Alex Padilla.

“The size of your child’s kindergarten class. Homeland security funds for your community. Natural disaster preparation. Highway and mass transit resources. Health care and emergency room services.

Vital services such as these would be jeopardized and our voice in government diminished if the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2020 count resulted in an undercount” -Xavier Becerra

In other words – the U.S. government shouldn’t be allowed to ask if U.S. residents are legal citizens, because it may lead to underreporting and therefore fewer benefits and Congressional representation would go to regions with high concentrations of illegal aliens.

Becerra argues that the Constitution requires the government conduct an “actual enumeration” of the total population – which, the California AG argues, should be conducted regardless of citizenship.

The census has a specific constitutional purpose: to provide an accurate count of all residents, which then allows for proper allotment of congressional representatives to the states. The Census Bureau has a long history of working to ensure the most accurate count of the U.S. population in a nonpartisan manner, based on scientific principles.

Separately, former Obama Attorney General Eric Holder announced that he is also filing a lawsuit to stop the citizenship question from being included in the 2020 census.

“We will litigate to stop the Administration from moving forward with this irresponsible decision,” Holder said in a Tuesday morning statement. “The addition of a citizenship question to the census questionnaire is a direct attack on our representative democracy. This question will lower the response rate and undermine the accuracy of the count, leading to devastating, decade-long impacts on voting rights and the distribution of billions of dollars in federal funding. By asking this question, states will not have accurate representation and individuals in impacted communities will lose out on state and federal funding for health care, education, and infrastructure.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announced the reinstatement of the citizenship question in a post to the department’s website (here). The question last appeared on the 1950 census.

As The Hill notes, the DOJ under Attorney General Jeff Sessions pushed for the inclusion of the question – arguing that it would allow Justice to better enforce the Voting Rights Act.

The census question has led lawmakers and pundits alike to opine on the legality, morality and practicality of such a move:

thebradfordfile@thebradfordfile

Kamala: The census is just trying to find all your voters (illegal). https://twitter.com/KamalaHarris/status/978734001405026304 

Tom Fitton@TomFitton

U.S. Department of Commerce Announces Reinstatement of Citizenship Question to the 2020 Decennial Census | The Left is going ballistic because they don’t want Americans to know the full extent of the illegal alien invasion. https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2018/03/us-department-commerce-announces-reinstatement-citizenship-question-2020 

U.S. Department of Commerce Announces Reinstatement of Citizenship Question to the 2020 Decennial…

Today, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that a question on citizenship status will be reinstated to the 2020 decennial census questionnaire to help enforce the Voting Rights Act (VRA)….

commerce.gov

Liz Wheeler@Liz_Wheeler

So liberals say asking about citizenship in the census is illegal, but they won’t say illegal immigrants being here is illegal?

Senator Bob Menendez@SenatorMenendez

The federal census is NOT a tool to rally the President’s base. It’s a constitutionally mandated count of every single PERSON living in this country.

More important than ever to pass my bill to prevent this w/ @CoryBooker@maziehirono & many @SenateDemshttps://www.menendez.senate.gov/news-and-events/press/menendez-booker-hirono-introduce-bill-to-prevent-trump-administration-from-politicizing-census-with-citizenship-question https://twitter.com/vanitaguptacr/status/978443248380366848 

Carolyn B. Maloney@RepMaloney

By adding a citizenship question to the , @SecretaryRoss has succumbed to the hateful, nativist views that are the hallmark of this administration & deliberately compromised the integrity of the for political purposes. https://twitter.com/nbcnews/status/978451057603997696 

Warren Davidson@WarrenDavidson

Apportionment for Congressional seats and electoral votes should be based on citizens, not on residents. Otherwise citizens are underrepresented… For example, California gets roughly three extra members of Congress based on estimates of illegal residents. https://twitter.com/andrewrestuccia/status/978443956026568710 

It will be interesting to see how this is somehow spun as a Russian trick by the usual suspect

end

Andrew Maguire on Kinesis

(courtesy Greg hunter/USAWatchdog)

Jig Is Up for the Dollar – Andrew Maguire

By Greg Hunter On March 27, 2018 In Market Analysis

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Will physical gold and silver prices ever break free of manipulation and price suppression? Renowned gold expert Andrew Maguire with Tom Coughlin, who is CEO of Kinesis that will be rolling out a gold backed currency in the fall, both say yes. So, what is it about? Coughlin explains, “It’s actually classified as a monetary system, and it’s called Kinesis. The reason we call it Kinesis is that it actually stimulates the flow of money. We see this as reintroducing the gold and silver standard through this monetary system.”

Maguire says there will be actual precious metal backing it up. Maguire says, “The backup will be gram for gram. This is the interesting part about it. We all know that the paper markets (for gold) have leverage of 500 to 1. We actually think it is much closer to 1,000 to 1 when you account for all the derivatives. . . . Here’s the thing about Kinesis. We’re talking about a market that is at the margin. It’s so tight this physical/paper market is already at the margin. We are witnessing right now real competing physical demand, and that is forcing discipline on the paper market, and it raises the point where the lines cross. . . . What’s it going to do to the paper market? It’s going to raise the offer to sell immediately deliverable physical gold. . . . Kinesis is going to be a game changer.”

So, has Comex and the LBMA already lost control? Coughlin says, “Not necessarily. My view is they will control it until the very end, until you basically get a market failure or defaulted delivery. There is a lot of defaulted delivery going on right now or delayed delivery.”

Andrew Maguire adds, “We are very close to a price reset (in gold and silver). What is a price reset? It is no more than settling . . . close to a trillion dollars of derivatives that are underwater and unable to be delivered. It is going to be a simple paper market reset. I suggest it will likely happen on a Friday . . . and there will be a known default and a price adjustment for Monday morning. . . . You will be into a bid only market. There would not be any offers to sell gold. . . . I am not going to guess on a price. . . .I know of two investor groups that are buying physical gold because they know there is going to be a physical price reset.”

In closing, Maguire says, “The jig’s up for the American dollar. Obviously, it’s not going to be overnight, but it is happening. Gold has to appreciate in this environment.”

Video Link

https://usawatchdog.com/jig-is- up-for-the-dollar-andrew-maguire/

I will  see you  THURSDAY night

HARVEY

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2 comments

  1. Paul Heron · · Reply

    What happened to 9 1) Hedge funds move away from the dollar? Couldn’t find it, Paul
    Love your column though, news behind the news……

    Liked by 1 person

  2. With the london fix moving to 36 hours that will be more useless information…ANYWAY Harvey Everything you report is useless….The markets are controlled by the bullion banks and they do whatever they want until someone drops a nuclear warhead on their face….until then it wont change and you might as well stop wasting your time reporting on the movements…WEIRD NO MOVEMENT FOR FIRST DAY NOTICE?? NOTHING WEIRD ABOUT IT AT ALL BECAUSE NOTHING IS REAL IN THE PRECIOUS METALS MARKET IT ALL FAKE NEWS

    Liked by 1 person

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