APRIL 18/SILVER THE BIG WINNER TODAY UP 44 CENTS AT $17.22/GOLD FOLLOWS IN SILVER’S FOOTSTEPS UP $3.65/HUGE SILVER EFP ISSUANCE AT 5077 CONTRACTS AS THESE LONGS TRANSFER OVER TO LONDON/HUGE TARIFFS PLAYING HAVOC IN JAPAN AS INVESTORS THERE BEG RUSAL TO STOP SENDING THEM ALUMINIUM DUE TO ITS HIGH PRICE (CAUSED BY TRUMP TARIFFS)/RONAN MANLY GIVES A TERRIFIC COMMENTARY ON THE GOLD/SILVER MANIPULATION/FRAUD CASE/11 GOP LAWMAKERS SENT TO JEFF SESSIONS THEIR COMPLAINT AGAINST COMEY, CLINTON, LYNCH, PAGE, STRZOK AND MCCABE PLUS MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

April 18, 2018 · by · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment

 

 

GOLD: $1350.65  UP $ 3.65  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver: $17.22 UP 44 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1349.50

silver: $17.19

For comex gold:

APRIL/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT:2 NOTICE(S) FOR 200 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 665 FOR 66500 OZ (2.068 tonnes)

THE COMEX IS OUT OF GOLD

For silver:

APRIL

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

nil OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 379 for 1,895,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: BID $8039/OFFER $8139: up $32(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $8129/offer 8229: UP $287  (CLOSING/5 PM)

 

end

I will be reporting on the Shanghai gold fix as I can now attest to it’s accuracy:

First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est

The second Shanghai gold fix:  2:15 pm

First fix gold: 10 pm est:  1352.20

NY price  at the same time: 1344.40

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $7.80

Second gold fix early this morning:1352.20

USA gold at the exact same time:  1344.80

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT:  $7.40

AGAIN, SHANGHAI REJECTS NEW YORK PRICING.

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST SURPRISINGLY  ROSE BY A SMALL  297 CONTRACTS FROM  214,000  RISING TO 214,297  WITH YESTERDAY’S 10 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING. THIS BROKE THE STRING OF 6 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF DROPS IN OPEN INTEREST. WE  FINALLY HAD ZERO  COMEX LIQUIDATION. WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP :  4963 EFP’S FOR MAY , 114 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 5077 CONTRACTS.   WITH THE TRANSFER OF 5077 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 5077 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 25.03 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING THE RISE IN  SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR APRIL COMEX DELIVERY.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL:

38,821 CONTRACTS (FOR 13 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 38,821 CONTRACTS) OR 194.105 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 2,986 CONTRACTS OR 14.931 MILLION OZ/DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  194.105 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 27.72% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:  912.235      MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                               236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                       236.67         MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 297  WITH THE 10 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE.    THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 5077 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . FROM THE CME DATA 4963  EFP’S  FOR THE  MONTH OF MAY AND 114 EFP CONTRACTS FOR JULY,  WERE ISSUED FOR  A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS.    WE GAINED  5374 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: i.e. 5077 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH AN INCREASE OF 297  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 10 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.78 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE APRIL DELIVERY  MONTH.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by WELL OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.071 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 153% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT APRIL MONTH/ THEY FILED: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER, WE HAVE NOW SET THE NEW RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51  ON APRIL 9.2018.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH 27 MILLION OZ AND APRIL 1.8 MILLION OZ)
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER  243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION

AND YET WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT). IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE BANKER CAPITULATION IN SILVER AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THEIR HUGE OBLIGATIONS.

In gold, the open interest  FELL BY AN SMALL SIZED 1101 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 510,229 WITH THE  DROP IN PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING ( FALL OF $1.00).  WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL. THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7535 CONTRACTS :   JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 7535 CONTRACTS , MAY SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The new OI for the gold complex rests at 510,229. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI  TOGETHER WITH  THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY COMEX. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED  OI GAIN IN CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1101 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND AN STRONG  SIZED 7535 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 6434 CONTRACTS OR 643,400 OZ = 20.01 TONNES.

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 9736  EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 138,280 CONTRACTS OR 13,828,000  OZ OR 430.108 TONNES (13 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 10,636 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 1,063,600 OZ/ TRADING DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :   SO FAR THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 430.108 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 430.108/2550 x 100% TONNES =  16.86% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN MARCH ALONE.*** THE ACCUMULATION OF EFP CONTRACTS IS RISING PER MONTH.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:  2,474.60 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:                741.89 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE. 

Result: A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 1101 DESPITE THE DROP IN PRICE // GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($1.00 FALL). HOWEVER, WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7535 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7535 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NET GAIN OF 6434 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

7535 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 1101 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 20.01 TONNES).

we had: 2 notice(s) filed upon for 200 oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD

WITH GOLD UP  $3.65 :  WE HAD NO  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/

Inventory rests tonight: 865.89 tonnes.

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES/ 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A TINY 297 CONTRACTS from 214,000 UP TO 214,297 (AND AWAY FROM THE  NEW COMEX RECORD SET YESTERDAY/APRIL 9/2017). THE PREVIOUS RECORD OTHER THAN WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 ALMOST ONE YEAR AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.WE FINALLY HAD AN OPEN INTEREST GAIN AFTER 6 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF LOSSES. THE GAIN OCCURRED WITH THE SHARP RISE IN PRICE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER  OUR BANKERS ALSO USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER 4963 EFP CONTRACTS FOR MAY  (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM) AND 114 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5077 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 297 CONTRACTS TO THE 5077 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OF 5374 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  26.87 MILLION OZ!!! AND THIS OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF 10 CENTS.  THE BANKERS ARE CAPITULATING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRY AND PARE THEIR GIGANTIC OPEN INTEREST SHORT.

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE RISE IN SILVER PRICING / YESTERDAY (10 CENTS/) . BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED 5077 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR APRIL, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 24.60 POINTS OR 0.80%  /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 221.50 POINTS OR 0.74%   / The Nikkei closed UP 310.61 POINTS OR 1.42%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .37% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.2829/Oil UP to 67.43 dollars per barrel for WTI and 72.35 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED IN THE GREEN    .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.2829 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.2768 /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  A LITTLE STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

 

i)North Korea/South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Japan

Unusual:  the tariffs initiated by Trump has caused the price of Aluminium to skyrocket. Now Japan has asked Rusal to stop aluminum shipments to them as the prices are just too high.  Traders also risk being a USA target if they do purchase Rusal aluminium.  This may force Rusal into bankruptcy. The big winner in the aluminium space;  China has they have gained huge market share at Rusal’s expense.  If Trump hits nickel next, then Norlisk is at risk

( zerohedge)

3 c CHINA

i)Hong Kong

With Libor much higher than Hibor, it was a lucrative trade for investors:  shorting the Hong Kong dollar and buying USA dollars/treasuries/bonds.  Hong Kong securities have a tiny yield but the uSA stuff has a much higher yield and thus the reason for loss in value of the Hong Kong dollar.

( zerohedge)

ii)China/USA

Another probe:  this time an anti dumping probe into steel wheels imported form China

( zerohedge)

iii)The trade war escalates as China prepares an “emergency response plan”

( zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Greece/Turkey

This is just what the world needed; Turkey flying into Greece airspace harasses the helicopter of Greek Prime Minister Tsipras

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Russia;Russia is set to announce a possible SWIFT cutoff as well as a  ban of  purchasing American debt from the said SWIFT system.  Russia is developing their own “SWIFT System”

(  zerohedge)

ii)Mac Slavo outlines why there was no chemical bombing in Eastern Damascus

( Mac Slavo/SHTFPlan.com)

iii)the sanctions are hurting Russia badly as it is difficult for them to compete with the west with these huge penalties blowing in their faces. Putin is now reportedly ready for deep concessions and seeks a deal with Trump

( zerohedge)

iv)Badly wounded Russia tries to fight back and now threatens the halt the key rocket engine exports to the USA.  Believe it or not the uSA uses Russian rockets to propel low orbiting satellites.

( zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

CANADACanada’s economy has not been performing well this this year. With inflation looming, many thought that the Governor might raise rates.  He did not.  Canada has the highest household debt to GDP in the industrialized world

( zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil and gasoline surge after a huge across the board inventory draw down

(courtesy zerohedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)A super commentary by Ronan Manly describing the criminal activity of the bankers as to how they have manipulated the fixes, how they blasted gold/silver on many occasions with impunity right under the watchful eyes of regulators.

( Ronan Manly)

ii)GATA is an exempt non profit organization and as such must show it’s return.  So here it is:

( GATA

iii)Craig Hemke talking with Sprott Money outlines the fraud behind the “Exchange for Physical” contracts that I highlight to you every trading day.

( Craig Hemke/Sprott Money/GATA)

( Lawrie Williams/Sharp Pixley)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)Early trading/NY
Yield curve inversion across the board signals trouble ahead..
(courtesy zerohedge)
ii)Trump confirms that Mike Pompeo has met with Kim Jong Un of North Korea
(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)The Fed’s Beige Book for April has been released and it seems that all 12 Fed districts are concerned  with the tariffs.  Also wage growth is not forthcoming as they would have liked( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)No question about it:  Michael Cohen must be worried.  It seems that the Judge Kinba Wood is Deep State, former playboy funny and a staunch Democrat
( zerohedge)

b)Each side has selected choices that we would be good candidates for “Special Master” although the Government would not like to have a Master but a Government filter agent.

( zerohedge)

c)The fun begins;  11 GOP members of Congress have written a letter to Attorney General Jeff Sessions asking them to investigate Comey , Clinton, Lynch, Strzok and Page under the criminal code.

( zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY AN FAIR SIZED 1101 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level 510,229 WITH THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD $(1.00 LOSS/ YESTERDAY’S TRADING).   FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE.   THE CME REPORTS THAT  THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED  COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE HAD 7535 FOR  JUNE, 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:  TOTAL  7535 CONTRACTS.  THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 6434 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 7535 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST 1101 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6434 contracts OR 643,400  OZ OR 20.01 TONNES.

Result: A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE FALL IN PRICE YESTERDAY  (ENDING UP WITH A LOSS OF $1.00)THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6434 OI CONTRACTS..

We have now entered the  active contract month of APRIL where we LOST 348 contracts LOWERING TO  940 contracts.  We had 0 notices served  yesterday, so we lost 348  contracts or an additional 34800 oz will not stand for delivery in this active delivery month of April and these lost contracts JOIN THEIR BROTHERS AS THEY MORPH INTO EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL CONTRACTS (EFP’S) ONCE THEY HAVE BEEN NEGOTIATED, WRITTEN UP AND SEALED. (i.e. London based forwards)

May saw A LOSS of 8 contracts to stand at 1218. The really big June contract month saw a GAIN of 504 contracts UP to 383,247 contracts.   The next big delivery month after June is August and here the OI ROSE BY 749 contracts UP to 49,614.

We had 2 notice(s) filed upon today for  200 oz at the comex

THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THE COMEX DOES NOT HAVE ANY  GOLD TO SATISFY UPON OUR LONGS.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY:171,580  contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 288,272 contracts

comex gold volumes are RISING AGAIN

Here is a summary of the latest gold trading volumes at the Comex per year

certainly the introduction of EFP’s has certainly had an effect:

Meanwhile, gold-trading volumes on the COMEX have never been higher:

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE  BY 297 CONTRACTS FROM 214,000 UP TO 214,297 (AND AWAY FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET APRIL 9.2018)  WITH THE 10 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING.  WE ALSO WERE ALSO INFORMED THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 4963 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MAY ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS: 114 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 5077.   ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 5374 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 297 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 5077 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   65374   CONTRACTS 

AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX

We are now in the non active delivery month of April and here the front month LOST 115 contracts FALLING TO  96 contracts.  We had 115 notices filed upon  so in essence we GAINED 0 contracts or ZERO additional ounces of silver will  stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of April

The next big active delivery month for silver will be May and here the OI LOST 2044 contracts DOWN to 95,993. June saw a GAIN of 1 contract to stand at 96.  The next big delivery month for silver is July and here the OI ROSE by 2160 contracts UP to 81,105.

We had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the APRIL 2018 contract for silver

INITIAL standings for APRIL/GOLD

APRIL 18/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
803.75 OZ
Manfra
(25 kilobars)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  nil OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today
2 notice(s)
 200 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
938 contracts
(93,800 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
665 notices
66,500 OZ
2.068 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 from the last week of March til today, we have had only 5 small entries for gold and they were all of the “kilobars” variety
From my vantage point, the comex is void of gold.  This rarely happens in a delivery month as gold is called upon to deliver.
***
we had 1 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:
 i)Out of Manfra:  803.75 oz  (25 kilobars)
total customer withdrawals:  803.75 oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 1 adjustment(s)
i) Out of Delaware;  297.343 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Delaware.
STRANGE!! WE HAVE A PULSE AT THE GOLD COMEX.

For APRIL:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 2 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (665) x 100 oz or 66500 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL. (940 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (2 x 100 oz per contract) equals 160,300 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of APRIL (4.9860 tonnes)

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:

No of notices served (665 x 100 oz or ounces + {(940)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2 x 100 oz )which equals 160,300 oz standing in this  active delivery month of APRIL . THERE IS 12.003 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE LOST 348 COMEX OI CONTRACTS OR 34800 OZ OF GOLD WILL NOT STAND BUT  THESE GUYS  MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

total registered or dealer gold:  385,923.014 oz or 12.003 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   9,051,749.97 oz 281.547 tones
THE COMEX IS AGAIN IN STRESS AS ONLY 12.003 TONNES OF GOLD ARE LEFT TO SERVICE DELIVERIES. THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX TO SERVE UPON LONGS AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE EFP TRANSFER OVER TO LONDON.

IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 72 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH

APRIL INITIAL standings/SILVER

APRIL 18/ 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,267,370.360  oz
JPMORGAN
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
  2039.89 oz
Brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S
(NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
96 contracts
(480,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 379 contracts

(1,895,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 140 million oz of  total silver inventory or 53.4% of all official comex silver. (140 million/263 million)

JPMorgan did not  deposit  into its warehouses (official) today.

ii) INTO EVERYBODY ELSE:  ZERO OZ

total deposits today: ZERO  oz

we had 2 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) out of JPMorgan; 605,295.100 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 60,641.660

total withdrawals;  1,267,370.360   oz

accumulation in last two days for JPMorgan silver withdrawal:1,812,023.0 oz

why is JPMorgan withdrawing so much silver?

we had 0 adjustment

total dealer silver:  61.363 million

total dealer + customer silver:  261.925 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the APRIL. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR NIL oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 379 x 5,000 oz = 1,895,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of April. (96) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the APRIL contract month: 379(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of April(96) -number of notices served upon today (115)x 5000 oz equals 2,375,000 oz of silver standing for the April contract month 

WE GAINED 0  SILVER CONTRACT OR NIL ADDITIONAL OUNCES WILL STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 97,131 CONTRACTS

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 108,999 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 108,999 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO  544 MILLION OZ OR 77.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.79% (APRIL 18/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.65% to NAV (APRIL 18/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.79%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.65%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV RISES TO -2.04%: NAV 14.04/TRADING 13.75//DISCOUNT 2.04.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.89 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

April 16/WITH GOLD UP$2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

April 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.15, A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES

April 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.40/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

April 11/WITH GOLD UP $13.85/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859,99 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP$4.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 6/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 ,A HUGE CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 WE HAD TWO ENTRIES: 1) TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .28 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES AND 2) A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.09 TONNES

April 4/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

APRIL 3./WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

APRIL 2/WITH GOLD UP $19.50, WE HAD A BIG  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 6.19 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 AND OPTIONS EXPIRY FINISHED, WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS A 846.12 TONNES

March 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.70, ANOTHER RAID ORCHESTRATED, AGAIN NO SURPRISES AS WE WITNESS ANOTHER 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.12 TONNES

MARCH 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.70 AND A RAID INITIATED, IT WAS NO SURPRISE TO SEE THAT A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES WAS USED IN THE ABOVE RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.30 TONNES

MARCH 26./WITH GOLD UP $4.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $23.30/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

MARCH 22.WITH GOLD UP $5.90, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES/

MARCH 21/WITH GOLD UP $9.65 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

March 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.75, A SURPRISING HUMONGOUS DEPOSIT OF 10.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.64 TONNES/

SO FAR, FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH, THE GLD HAS ADDED 19.61 TONNES WITH A NET LOSS OF $17.45

March 19/WITH GOLD UP $5.25: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF 2.07 TONNES/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 840.22 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.65/OUR CROOKS DEPOSITED ANOTHER 4.42 TONNES INTO GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 838.15 TONNES

FOR THE WEEK: GOLD LOST  $11.80, BUT GOLD INVENTORY ADVANCED:4.42 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.55/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

APRIL 18/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 865.89 tonnes

*IN LAST 364 TRADING DAYS: 75.15 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 314 TRADING DAYS: A NET 81.15 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS  AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

April 16/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

April 13/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ.

April 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

April 11/2018/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP 8 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.319 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/

April 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHRAWAL OF 135,000 OZ AND THIS IS PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3./WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS, THE CROOKS DECIDED THAT THEY HAD BETTER ADD SOME 943,000 PAPER OZ TO THEIR INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ

March 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/AGAIN NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS, A HAD A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.602 MILLION OZ.INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT, NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 21/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 19/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS, THE SLV ADDS A SMALL 659,000 OZ TO ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ.

FOR THE WEEK;  SILVER IS DOWN 42 CENTS YET ADDS 943,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

HAD ANOTHER HUGE ADDITION OF 1.315 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 17/2018:  A NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:  

Inventory 320.196 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO 2.03/ and libor 6 month duration 2.50

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.03%

libor 2.50 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .47%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.75%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.50

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.25

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for WEDNESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Silver Bullion Remains Good Value On Positive Supply And Demand Factors

– Silver bullion remains good value on positive supply and demand factors
– Industrial demand set to continue to climb from 2017, into 2018 and beyond
– Speculators are bearish on silver as net short positions in silver futures reach record
– Investment demand sees silver ETF holdings at eight-month high of 665.4 million ozs
– 2017 saw fifth consecutive annual physical deficit in scrap silver, of 26 moz
– Global silver mine production fell 4% last year, 2nd consecutive year of decline
– Fundamentals and speculative positions suggest silver may soon see strong gains

Editor: Mark O’Byrne

Silver poor mans metal

It’s been tough going for many silver bullion investors who look back fondly on silver’s surge to nearly $50/oz in 2011. But things are set for a turnaround judging by recent COT reports, investment demand as seen in ETF holdings and non-investment metrics such as strong industrial demand and falling mine supply.

Earlier this month you could be forgiven for thinking that silver’s future certainly contained no shiny lining of any kind. There were a record 39,604 contracts (equivalent to five-and-a-half metric tons) of net short positions in silver futures held by money managers. Some would see this as bearish but the record shows that such positioning is generally bullish from a contrarian perspective and frequently presages sharp reversals higher in the price of silver.

On the arguably more important long term side of the market is investment demand. Total silver ETF holdings reached an eight-month high of 665.4 million troy ounces last week. Investors increasingly like the medium and long term fundamentals of the silver market. Not so bearish after all.

On the all important physical, non-investment part of the silver market, life is looking even shinier. Industrial demand currently makes up about 60% of the silver market and is set to climb. A recent report from Thomson Reuters’ GFMS and the Silver Institute has found that demand for silver in the non-investment space climbed in 2017 and is expected to continue to do so this year and beyond.

These figures – speculative bets on a lower silver price on one hand but strong investment and industrial demand on another – look counter intuitive to the uninformed observer.

They likely show that silver remains undervalued versus gold and indeed versus very overvalued stock, bond and indeed most property markets.

The Bearish Managed Money Positions Are A Good Sign 

We look at money managed positions in silver futures as they serve as a good proxy for for investor and speculative activity on the COMEX. Currently (and pretty much since August 2017) speculators are more short than they are long, with a lot of cash betting that silver is set for further fall in price.

As of last week the managed money positions made it 9 consecutive weeks of bearish sentiment. According to several market analysts the metal is now “oversold” and “vulnerable” to a hop up the price scale. Interestingly, despite the air of negativity, silver has remained resilient – falling by just 2% in the last two months or so.

We saw a similar situation last year, despite a wave of bearish speculators silver bullion managed to finish the year up 6%.

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunes. Watch on YouTube below

Some analysts believe the current negativity surrounding silver could signal a turnaround. Bloomberg’s David Fickling wrote an astute article which is well worth a read on Monday:

‘As the stunning reversal of aluminum’s three-month decline last week demonstrated, commodity markets can go wild when bearish investors are caught short.’

SocGen’s own analysts are inclined to agree, when studying last week’s CFTC data they concluded that the industrial precious metal is now “oversold [and] generally vulnerable to short-covering.”

It’s clear that the weakness in the price is coming from negative speculation rather than the fundamentals – all of which point to a bullish future.

Industrial demand says industrious 

WORLD SILVER SUPPLYSource: GFMS Thomson Reuters

The newly released 2017 Silver Survey makes for some interesting reading and is something that should perhaps be handed over to all those bearish money managers. Whilst investment demand in the form of silver bullion coins and bars did fall last year (mainly thanks to lower demand in the US and Canada) all other physical metrics point to an extremely bullish market.

Industrial demand, jewellery demand and supply restrictions all point to a much tighter market than the likes of COT and even some ETF holding reports would have you believe.

Thanks to photovoltaic growth (up 19%) industrial demand  grew for the first time last year, since 2013. Whilst jewellery and silverware demand increased by 2% and 12% respectively.

These numbers mean little if you don’t know the juicy numbers – the huge tightening in supply.

Global mine production fell by more than 4% last year, this was the second annual decline. As with any industrial market, the industry doesn’t just rely on fresh metal from the ground – scrap is a major factor. But this is in an even worse state, falling to 138.1 Moz in 2017 – its sixth successive annual decline.

SILVER PHYSICAL SURPLUS / DEFICIT

Silver Institute: Silver Will Outperform Gold 

Generally silver likes to move in line with gold, if at a much lower price. However, this year it has not been able to match up to it’s own strong performance in early 2017 or gold’s performance this year. Currently the gold price is reacting nicely to global events whilst silver has lagged behind.

Gold silver ratio

The ratio is back up above 80, something which has only been seen 3 times in the past. The World Silver Institute believe we should look at this as the market trying to tell us something:

The gold:silver ratio can rally in the face of a crisis, although the nature of such a crisis would dictate how the ratio develops. If circumstances suggest that market instability increases then investors would favor gold over silver. A good example

was during the 2008 global nancial crisis, when the ratio surged above 80. Meanwhile, a high ratio in the early 1990s was in response to the Gulf War. It is arguable that in anticipation of a crisis the market could see 80 or beyond. At the end of 2017, the gold:silver ratio was at 77 (though the full year average was just a moderate year-on-year increase to 73.9), a high level that perhaps suggests that the market is trying to tell us something. We suspect the high gold:silver ratio indicated that the market had been expecting another major crisis could be looming, or at the least that it was about time for equities correction, and therefore investors had been accumulating physical gold in the market.

Interestingly, the World Silver Institute Report’s own Johann Wiebe believes this high figure of 80 won’t be here to stay:

Wiebe believes that silver prices will rise and that the white metal will outperform gold in 2018 “purely based on the ratio argument.”

He continued, “[if] you look at the ratio it is at 82, and every time it pops above 80 … it reverses back because it is simply too cheap vs. gold. So in that sense, yes, I support that argument [that] silver will upsell gold.”

Whilst gold is probably the safest way to hedge against global crises, a falling dollar and increased monetary inflation, silver is by far the most profitable.

Consider that during gold’s last big rally in 2011, it reach $1,900 an ounce. At the same time silver was at $50/oz. Around 200% higher than silver’s current $16.75 price. And, a much lower ratio to gold.

Investors are likely to see this as they watch the gold price slowly tick upwards in response to ongoing, uncertain events. There will no doubt be many who turn to silver as a cheaper and more likely profitable complementary hedging asset. Indeed, we see them every week with very strong demand for silver coins (VAT free) from our UK/Irish and EU clients in recent weeks.

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunes. Watch on YouTube below

Silver Deserves An Allocation In Investment and Pension Portfolios

It can be very easy to dismiss something on first glance. In this case it is the price and speculators that are “painting” silver in a bad light. If anything, this should be the selling point. It is very likely that silver is in the early stages of a bull run. Its current price should not be dismissed by investors instead the fundamentals should be the focus of anyone deciding how best to allocate their portfolio.

Some analysts of late have suggested owning silver over gold. We would not advocate this as we believe that both merit a place in a well-balanced and diversified portfolio. We believe silver will outperform gold and offer opportunities for silver buyers to rebalance into gold after seeing gains in silver.

We fully expect both precious metals to outperform stocks, bonds, currencies and most other assets in the near future.

Recommended Reading

Silver bullion will likely outperform gold bullion going forward

Buy Silver And Sell Gold Now

Silver Bullion: Should We Be Worried About Silver?

News and Commentary

Gold up as investors hold onto positions; but risk appetite remains (Reuters.com)

Gold settles slightly lower as stocks rise, dollar drifts higher (MarketWatch.com)

Earnings Spur Stocks as Trade Woes Take Back Seat (Bloomberg.com)

Dow up over 200 points as investors cheer earnings (MarketWatch.com)

Factory Output in U.S. Cools After Surging in Previous Month (Bloomberg.com)

IMF Spots Trouble Ahead for the Global Economy After 2020 (Bloomberg.com)

U.K. Consumers Stay Under Pressure Even as Pay Squeeze Nears End (Bloomberg.com)

Majority Of Investors Starting To Cash Out, Convinced Market Peaks In Second Half (ZeroHedge.com)

How Libor’s Surge Will Help Pop The Global Bubble (RealInvestmentAdvice.com)

Turkey withdrew gold from Fed amid crisis (AhvalNews.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunes. Watch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

17 Apr: USD 1,342.95, GBP 937.24 & EUR 1,084.57 per ounce
16 Apr: USD 1,344.40, GBP 941.21 & EUR 1,087.62 per ounce
13 Apr: USD 1,340.75, GBP 938.93 & EUR 1,087.35 per ounce
12 Apr: USD 1,345.90, GBP 951.01 & EUR 1,090.99 per ounce
11 Apr: USD 1,345.20, GBP 947.96 & EUR 1,087.86 per ounce
10 Apr: USD 1,335.95, GBP 942.25 & EUR 1,083.46 per ounce
09 Apr: USD 1,328.50, GBP 941.91 & EUR 1,082.33 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

17 Apr: USD 16.63, GBP 11.60 & EUR 13.44 per ounce
16 Apr: USD 16.60, GBP 11.61 & EUR 13.42 per ounce
13 Apr: USD 16.51, GBP 11.57 & EUR 13.40 per ounce
12 Apr: USD 16.66, GBP 11.74 & EUR 13.50 per ounce
11 Apr: USD 16.57, GBP 11.67 & EUR 13.39 per ounce
10 Apr: USD 16.49, GBP 11.65 & EUR 13.38 per ounce
09 Apr: USD 16.34, GBP 11.59 & EUR 13.32 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– London House Prices See Fastest Quarterly Fall Since 2009 Crisis
– Global Debt Bubble Hits New All Time High – One Quadrillion Reasons To Buy Gold
– Oil Surges Over 8%, Gold and Silver Marginally Higher, Stocks Gain In Volatile Week
– EU and Euro Exposed To Risks Including Trade Wars and War With Russia In Middle East
– Trump Tweets Russia “Get Ready” For Missiles In Syria – Gold, Oil Rise and Stocks Fall
– Private: EU and Euro Exposed To Trade Wars, Energy Dependence, Anti-EU and Anti-Euro Movements
– Trump Making ‘Major Decisions’ on Syria, Iran and Russia Response ‘Very Quickly’
– Gold Out Performs Stocks In 2018 and This Century By Ratio Of Two To One
– Jamie Dimon Warns Of Potential ‘Market Panic’
– Silver Bullion: Should We Be Worried About Silver?
– Martin Luther King Jr. Anniversary: Reminds Us Of Costs Of War To Society and Financial System
– Gold Outperforms Stocks In Q1, 2018
– Brexit, Stagflation Pressures UK High Street

janskoyles

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

Andrew Maguire
2:57 PM (1 hour ago)
to me

Harvey

Here It is my friend!  https://kinesis.money/#/ Please let everyone know.

Let catch up on Monday if you have time. We have billions in the hopper ready to be allocated on the 1st day of trading. The paper market days are over.

Warm regards

Andy

(courtesy Lawrie Williams/Sharp Pixley)

_________________
___________________________________________________________________

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

 

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP 6.2829  /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 24.60 POINTS OR 0.80%   / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 221.50 POINTS OR 0.74%
2. Nikkei closed UP 310,61 POINTS OR 1.42%/  /USA: YEN RISES TO 107.17/  

3. Europe stocks OPENED IN THE GREEN     /USA dollar index RISES TO 89.56/Euro RISES TO 1.2384

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO . +.038/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.17/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 67.43  and Brent: 72.36

3f Gold UP/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.519%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.7271% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.220%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.012?????????????????

3k Gold at $1350.25 silver at:16.98     7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 7/100 in roubles/dollar) 61.59

3m oil into the 67 dollar handle for WTI and 72 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.17 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9677 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1984 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.519%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.8377% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 3.0238% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Stock Rally Enters 3rd Day Despite Inflation Misses, As Traders Search For Next Catalyst

While the general risk-on sentiment across global markets persisted for a third day amid sliding volatility, the rally appears to have lost some steam with Dow futures lagging after last night’s disappointing IBM revenues, which in turn may have capped the S&P ramp that started on Monday.

Earlier, the pound slumped and the euro briefly dropped on disappointing inflation data, as both UK and Eurozone CPI prints missed. European stocks then turned negative driven by steep declines in the auto sector, led by tiremakers after a bellwether issuing a profit warning. The catalyst was Continental which cut its forecast for FY adjusted Ebit margin to >10% from the previous view of ~10.5%, citing negative currency impact and inventory revaluation, mainly in the tire business, sending its shares sliding 4.3%, and dragging the rest of the sector with it: Michelin down -3.2%; Pirelli -1.9%, Schaeffler -1.4%; Michelin. The broader European auto index was down 1%, the worst market sector in Europe this morning.

“The profit warning is a huge disappointment as management had previously signaled a significant reduction in raw material headwinds for the Rubber group, which fanned expectations of an improvement in profitability,” said Commerzbank in a note.

As a result, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.1% to session low around 6am ET, erasing earlier gains with 15 of 19 industry groups declining, however despite some weakness in the DAX, most global stock markets remained in the green.

Earlier in Asia, Japanese shares outperformed amid gains across the region, boosted by a drop in the yen as President Donald Trump met Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. China’s 10-year bond yield tumbled after the People’s Bank of China cut the reserve-requirement ratio for banks, part of its efforts to boost market liquidity amid concerns of trade war and to support credit amid a crackdown on shadow lending.

As Bloomberg notes, the yield on 10-year sovereign debt plunged 16bps, the most since December 2016,  to 3.50%; the cost on five-year sovereign notes slumps 21bps, extending its 12-day drop to 51bps, to 3.17%; the yield on one-year debt declines 16bps to 3.02%. Yield on China Development Bank bonds due in a decade tumbles 20bps to 4.44%, the lowest level since October. The one-year interest rate swaps declines 11bps to 3.19%, the lowest since Jan. 2017

Chinese lenders advanced, but automakers fell after the government moved to allow foreign players to take full ownership of their local ventures.

Simon Ting@simonting

Automobile sector plunges -2.1% to 25-month low amid China is opening up the car industry?

Meanwhile as the EUR and GMP slumped, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose for a second day on easing  geopolitical tension and as softer price pressures in Europe hurt the pound and euro. Reports that CIA Director Mike Pompeo held a secret meeting with North Korea’s leader boosted optimism about the prospect of a peace deal for the peninsula, while investors see a low chance of a negative surprise on planned trade talks on Wednesday between U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The pound led losses in G-10 land, as U.K. data missed estimates a second day, triggering stops and stop entries by leveraged accounts, on concerns the BOE’s resolve to hike may have been dented. The euro followed suit as euro-area inflation rose less than initially estimated last month.

Meanwhile, with a blockbuster earnings season clearly priced in – as not even Goldman could close green after reporting spectacular earnings  – traders are searing for the next big thing to push stocks higher. Luckily, there’s once again no shortage of catalysts for investors across the globe, from corporate fundamentals and geopolitics to simmering trade tensions and growth concerns. For now the bulls appear to have the upper hand, especially after the U.S. says it’s already started direct talks with North Korea. Separately, Russian leader Vladimir Putin was said to be seeking to dial down tensions with America.

Elsewhere, as we warned overnight, nickel surged to the highest in more than three years on the London Metal Exchange on worries that the metal used in stainless steel could be caught in the crossfire of any further U.S. sanctions against Russia.

Oil prices continued rising, with WTI at USD 67.10 and Brent at USD 72.08. This comes following the weekly API inventory report which despite showing a slightly narrower than expected draw in headline crude stockpiles, was accompanied by draws across all  product components of the release. The rise in oil prices is further compounded by the continued narrative of middle-eastern tensions with the latest source reports suggesting that weapons inspections have been delayed in Douma, Syria amid gunfire on the site. In the metals scope, prices for aluminium surged as Rio Tinto said it could not fulfil supply contracts due to US sanctions on Rusal, adding to the squeeze seen in the aluminium sector. Further, the US Commerce Department launched a probe on imports of some types of steel wheels from China, while it was also said to have made a preliminary finding that aluminium sheet imports from China benefit from unfair subsidies. Gold has remained flat for the day.

In overnight central bank speakers, Fed’s Evans (Non-Voter, Dove) said rates can be raised gradually without risk of a surge in inflation. Elsewhere, the Fed’s Bostic (Voter, Dove) said goal for policy should be to get to a more neutral stance, while he added the US economy is in a good place and that he expects to see a build to inflation.

In geopolitical news, the Russian Embassy in the US notified that no sanctions are coming. US President Trump said US has had discussions with North Korea at high levels, while there were separate reports that Secretary of State nominee Pompeo met with North Korean Leader Kim Jong-Un over the Easter weekend.

What to watch

  • BOC rate decision; Governor Stephen Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins are scheduled to hold a news conference
  • Another round of Fed speakers, New York Fed President William Dudley and Fed Governor Randal Quarles to speak; Fed releases Beige Book
  • Brexit negotiations in Brussels; Ireland’s border, the future relationship between the U.K and the EU in focus
  • President Trump and Japan PM Abe will hold 2pm working lunch before joint press conference at 5:30pm Wednesday, White House says in guidance
  • Abbott, Morgan Stanley, U.S. Bancorp, Alcoa, American Express, and Canadian Pacific are among companies reporting earnings. Expected data include MBA mortgage applications.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • European equities mostly higher, taking the lead from Asian and Wall St. with all major bourses in the green (Eurostoxx 50 +0.1%) as earnings come into focus.
  • FTSE 100 outperforms as cable has now lost another big figure level (1.4200) in wake of considerably weaker than forecast CPI data
  • Looking ahead, highlights include NZ inflation, BoC rate decision, DoEs and a slew of central bank speakers

Market Wrap

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,712.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 381.48
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.7% to 174.37
  • MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan up 0.6% to 568.76
  • Nikkei up 1.4% to 22,158.20
  • Topix up 1.1% to 1,749.67
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 30,284.25
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,091.40
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 34,446.75
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 5,861.42
  • Kospi up 1.1% to 2,479.98
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 0.502%
  • Euro down 0.05% to $1.2364
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 4.2 bps to 1.505%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to 1.209%
  • Brent futures up 0.7% to $72.09/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,345.21
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 89.70

Top Overnight News:

  • High-level U.S. officials have spoken directly with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in preparation for a meeting between President Donald Trump and Kim, said a person familiar with matter. Washington Post reports that CIA Director Mike Pompeo made a top-secret visit to North Korea over Easter weekend.
  • President Donald Trump again soured on the 11-nation Trans- Pacific Partnership ahead of planned trade talks on Wednesday with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Trump and Abe will hold 2pm working lunch before joint press conference at 5:30pm Wednesday, White House says in guidance.
  • President Donald Trump’s accusations that China and Russia are gaming their currencies were a “warning shot” about the consequences about devaluation, rather than part of a wish to achieve a weaker dollar, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said.
  • Fed’s John Williams played down risks the yield curve would become inverted as the U.S. central bank gradually raises interest rates.
  • Putin wants to give President Trump another chance to make good on pledges to improve ties and avoid escalation, according to four people familiar with the matter
  • The PBOC lowered the reserve-requirement ratios for some banks by 1 percentage point, spurring the biggest drop in the 10-year government bond yield since December 2016
  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit strategy faces a renewed threat on Wednesday when her flagship bill returns to Parliament’s upper chamber, where Lords of all political stripes are seeking to amend it
  • The European Commission has drafted 30-40 proposals to amend laws and give special powers to regulators for EU to deal with a no-deal scenario, either on Brexit day in March 2019 or after a transition period, FT reports
  • EU President Donald Tusk stepped up the pressure on the U.K. to come up with a solution to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland after Brexit by warning that all deals, including the transition period agreement, would otherwise be canceled.
  • Brussels seeks emergency powers to prepare for hard Brexit, FT reports.

Asian equity markets were mostly higher as the region got a tailwind from Wall St where sentiment was lifted by encouraging earnings; gains were led by the Nasdaq after Netflix shares surged on strong subscriber numbers. ASX 200 (+0.3%) was positive but with upside capped by weakness in the largest weighted financials sector amid an ongoing Banking Royal Commission grilling and after CYBG flagged a GBP 202mln pre-tax charge, while Nikkei 225 (+1.4%) outperformance was fuelled by a weaker JPY. Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) were underpinned at the open in reaction to the PBoC’s surprise 100bps RRR cut for most banks and a CNY 150bln Reverse Repo operation. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat as safe-haven outflows from the increased risk appetite in Japan was counterbalanced by the BoJ presence in the market for over JPY 1tln in 1-10yr JGBs, while USTs were lower overnight with yields in the short-end higher in which 2yr yields rose to 2.400% for the first time since 2008. US Commerce Department launched probe on imports of some types of steel wheels from China, while it was also said to have made a preliminary finding that aluminium sheet imports from China benefit from unfair subsidies.

Top Asian News

  • Japan Bank Falls Most Since 1975 Over Faked Documents Report
  • Down $1 Trillion, World’s Worst Stocks Near Make-or-Break Level
  • ‘Risky’ Cash Crunch Pushes India to Defend Its Scam-Hit Banks

The European equities have taken the lead from Asian and Wall St. with all major bourses in the green (Eurostoxx 50 +0.1%) as earnings come into focus. The FTSE 100 is outperforming, fuelled by the weaker sterling as the UK inflation rate drops to the lowest in a year. Almost all sectors are resting in the green, with materials outperforming on the firmer base metal prices while consumer discretionary lagging behind. In terms of stock specifics, Hammerson (+2.4%) shares are higher following a withdrawal from the proposed acquisition of Intu Properties (-3.5%). Danone (+2.3%) is dominating the CAC 40 following strong earnings and maintaining 2018 guidance. Further for the CAC, Total (+0.8%) are also a top performer in French index amid reports the company is in talks to purchase Direct Energie (+30.5%), which in turn is soaring. Elsewhere, Germany’s Continental (-4.3%) shares dropped following a negative change in their 2018 outlook. Michelin (-3.5%) and Pirelli (-1.9%) fell in sympathy

Top European News

  • Equity Strategists Lower Projections for Euro-Area Stock Rally
  • U.K. Inflation Drops More Than Expected to Slowest in a Year
  • Brexit Transition Is No Go Without Irish Border Answer, EU Says
  • Spain Is Booming and Now Voters Turn Against the Prime Minister

In FX, the DXY was underpinned around 89.500 after Tuesday’s broadly better than expected US data and some hawkish-leaning Fed commentary, while US-China/Russia tensions remain relatively contained after latest reports that the White House is not in the process of imposing more sanctions against Moscow, although it is purportedly looking at additional Chinese imports from an unfair competitive angle. However, the index is still looking rangy between 89.700-400 and 90.000-89.000 outside of that. GBP Cable had already retraced further from fresh post-Brexit vote peaks (circa 1.4375) in the run up to UK inflation data, but has now lost another big figure level (1.4200) in wake of considerably weaker than forecast CPI data that could prevent the BoE from hiking rates in May. Eur/Gbp has rebounded sharply as a consequence, through 0.8650 and just over 0.8700.CAD: Only a couple of outlying hawkish calls for the upcoming BoC policy meeting vs the large consensus expecting no change, as the Loonie unwinds some of its recent gains vs the Usd and perhaps is drawn to big option expiries from 1.2585-1.2600 in some 3 bn. Currently near the bottom end of the band vs a circa 1.2525 low yesterday with the level break via options suggesting a 90 pip move on the BoC and MPR. EUR: Eur/Usd just holding above key chart support around 1.2330 having retreated from 1.2400+ on Tuesday following an unexpected downgrade to final Eurozone CPI.

In commodities, Oil prices continue their rise, with WTI at USD 67.10 and Brent at USD 72.08. This comes following the weekly API inventory report which despite showing a slightly narrower than expected draw in headline crude stockpiles, was accompanied by draws across all  product components of the release. The rise in oil prices is further compounded by the continued narrative of middle-eastern tensions with the latest source reports suggesting that weapons inspections have been delayed in Douma, Syria amid gunfire on the site. In the metals scope, prices for aluminium surged as Rio Tinto said it could not fulfil supply contracts due to US sanctions on Rusal, adding to the squeeze seen in the aluminium sector. Further, the US Commerce Department launched a probe on imports of some types of steel wheels from China, while it was also said to have made a preliminary finding that aluminium sheet imports from China benefit from unfair subsidies. Gold has remained flat for the day.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -1.9%
  • 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

Central Banks

  • 8:30am: Fed’s Dudley Has Opening Remarks at Community Bank Conference
  • 3:15pm: Fed’s Dudley Speaks on Economic Outlook
  • 4:15pm: Fed’s Quarles Speaks in Washington

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The strong results of Netflix the said company on Monday night seemed to help extend the rally yesterday as healthy corporate earnings are overpowering the various geopolitical and trade headlines. The tech sector jumped with the Nasdaq rallying +1.74% (Netflix closed up +9.19%) and the NYSE FANG Index rose +3.74%. Broader markets also saw solid gains with the likes of the S&P 500 (+1.07%), Dow (+0.87%), DAX (+1.57%) and Stoxx 600 (+0.80%) all up, while the VIX (-1.3pts to 15.25) is back to testing the March lows after Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth also added to a solid day for earnings. GS did actually fade early gains (+1.69% to -1.65% at the close) following the results briefing call (on cost question marks), however it’s hard to look past the fact that it’s been a decent Q1 for US bank results so far.

Not all earnings have been positive. After the bell in the US, IBM’s share price was down c6% after reporting narrower 1Q profit margins and flat revenue growth (FX adjusted). To partly illustrate how times have changed, yesterday IBM’s market cap was only $2.4bln larger than Netflix at $148.2bln and will be smaller today if it opens inline with post close trading. This compares to it being $98bln larger one year ago and a whopping $224.2bln larger five years ago.

Back to the overall positive tone in markets, there is definitely a feeling over the last few days that the trade war tensions are easing with a renegotiated NAFTA looking more likely, Mr Trump opening back the door to TPP and China showing some increased flexibility (more evidence below) in trade/IP policy and showing a willingness to negotiate even while retaliating. There’s little doubt that Mr Trump could make the headlines with some negative comments on trade over the weeks ahead as it continues to be a useful negotiation strategy but the market appears to be increasingly feeling that rhetoric may not fully translate into actions.

The rally in equities though hasn’t yet encouraged a bond sell-off. Yesterday government bond yields ended the day either flat or slightly lower (US Treasuries +0.1bp; Bunds -1.8bp). While some of the softer data may have played a part, it does feel likes rates markets are reluctant to break out of what have been fairly tight ranges for a while – particularly for Treasuries – as we noted over the last couple of days.

This morning in Asia it’s largely been a similar story with equities up (Nikkei +1.40%, Kospi +1.05%; Hang Seng +0.25%) and yields on UST 10y little changed (+0.5bp). Elsewhere, the Washington Post reported US Secretary of State nominee Pompeo has met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un over the Easter weekend, in part to prepare for a summit with President Trump. So another area of tension potentially in the process of being eased.

Bourses in China are modestly down (Shanghai Comp. -0.56%) while 10y yields on Chinese bonds are down c15bp after yesterday’s 1% RRR cut by the PBOC. Just on that, according to the PBOC the cut – which takes effect from April 25th – will be for certain banks however the excluded banks appeared to be rural or commercial banks in rural areas. The statement also suggested that about 900bn Yuan/$143bn of medium-term lending facility loans would be repaid on the same day that the RRR cut is applied. Our China economist Zhiwei Zhang believe the RRR cut should not be seen as a change of monetary policy stance, rather the main purpose is to avoid an over-tightening on small banks and small businesses as well as to provide more stable liquidity for the banking system. Overall, they maintain their macro and policy outlook for 2018 and expect GDP growth to slow only marginally in the next few quarters (Q2-Q4 forecasts: 6.6% to 6.5%) while annual growth forecasts remain 6.6% and 6.3% for 2018 and 2019.

Staying with a busy China, yesterday Beijing removed the 50% ownership cap for foreign carmakers on local China car producers. According to the FT the plan is to remove it over the course of 5 years. This of course follows threats by President Trump to invoke tariffs on imports from China worth as much as $150bn a year. So further signs maybe of a de-escalation in the ongoing trade war. Something else that caught our eye yesterday was a Reuters article suggesting that China’s international trade rep had held meetings with European ambassadors last week asking them to unite with China against US protectionism.

Over in the US, White House Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow was reported as saying on Fox News yesterday that “we don’t want any currency wars” and that Trump was “just concerned – more about China” following his tweet on Monday calling Russia and China currency manipulators. That was in contrast to Treasury Secretary Steven    Mnuchin’s comments who called Trump’s comments a “warning shot”.

Now turning to the five Fed speakers overnight. The Fed’s Bostic who is a FOMC voter this year said “our goal is to get a more neutral stance” on rates. He added that “we’ve embarked on a slow gradual move to neutral” and he is not anticipating a change to this path, but “to the extent things happen, we will respond”. Mr Evans also reiterated the gradual path towards a more neutral rates setting and then subject to the incoming data “we see how far we  have to go beyond that”. On inflation, he noted that “to the extent that inflation continues to move towards 2%, above 2%, 2.25%, (it is) completely consistent with symmetry for our price objective”. Elsewhere, Mr Williams said “I don’t see the signs of an inverted yield curve” and that “the flattening of the curve that we’ve seen is so far a normal part of the process, as the Fed is raising interest rates…”. On rates, his “own forecast would be that interest rates are going up gradually, smoothly”. Then on trade, he said “what worries me in this trade discussion is that uncertainty, even without action, can have a detrimental effect”. Elsewhere, Mr Harker noted the current unemployment rate of 4.1% is “at or below the natural rate in his view” and that the independence of the Fed is “crucial” to the US economy. Finally, Mr Quarles told the House Financial Services Committee that regulators can’t repeal the Volcker rules but “there’s a lot we can do to increase the certainty of application and reduce the burden of application”.

Moving onto the latest GDP forecasts by the IMF, where its’ forecast for global growth remains unchanged at 3.9% for this year and next but “growth is projected to soften beyond the next couple of years, partly held by back by ageing populations and lacklustre productivity”. Notably, forecasts for the US economy was revised up 0.2ppt in both years, to 2.9% for this year and 2.7% next year.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the March IP was above market at 0.5% mom (vs. 0.3% expected) while capacity utilisation also beat at 78% (vs. 77.9% expected). Most of the growth in March was from a 3.0% mom rebound in utility output. Elsewhere, the March housing starts grew 1.9% mom to 1,319k (vs. 1,267k expected) while building permits were also above expectations at 1,354k (vs. 1,321k). Factoring in the above,the Atlanta Fed’s estimate of 1Q GDP growth edged up 0.1ppt to 2.0% saar.

Germany’s April ZEW survey on current conditions was broadly in line (87.9 vs. 88 expected), but the expectations index fell for the first time since July 2016 (-8.2 vs. -1.0 expected) while the Euro area’s expectations reading was also lower (1.9 vs. 13.4 previous). Elsewhere, the final reading of Italy’s March CPI was revised down 0.2ppt to 0.9% yoy. In the UK, the February unemployment rate edged down 0.1ppt mom to 4.2% (vs. 4.3% expected), marking a fresh low since 1975.The average weekly earnings growth (ex-bonus) was in line and grew at the fastest pace since August 2015, but the headline growth was modestly below market at 2.8% yoy (vs. 3.0% expected). Overall, the implied Bloomberg odds of a May rate hike in the UK fell c5ppt to 80% yesterday.

Looking at the day ahead, the main highlights are the March CPI reports for the UK and Euro area. In the US there is no data due out however we will get the Fed’s Beige Book, while the Fed’s Dudley and Quarles are scheduled to  speak The BoE’s Brazier is also due to speak to lawmakers in London. Morgan Stanley will report earnings.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 24.60 POINTS OR 0.80%  /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 221.50 POINTS OR 0.74%   / The Nikkei closed UP 310.61 POINTS OR 1.42%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .37% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.2829/Oil UP to 67.43 dollars per barrel for WTI and 72.35 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED IN THE GREEN    .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.2829 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.2768 /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  A LITTLE STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

North Korea/South Korea

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

Japan

Unusual:  the tariffs initiated by Trump has caused the price of Aluminium to skyrocket. Now Japan has asked Rusal to stop aluminum shipments to them as the prices are just too high.  Traders also risk being a USA target if they do purchase Rusal aluminium.  This may force Rusal into bankruptcy. The big winner in the aluminium space;  China has they have gained huge market share at Rusal’s expense.  If Trump hits nickel next, then Norlisk is at risk

(courtesy zerohedge)

“We Are In A Panic Situation”: Japan Asks Rusal To Stop Aluminum Shipments While Prices Soar

One week ago, when the Trump administration unveiled the most draconian Russian sanctions yet which among others targeted Putin-ally Oleg Deripaska and the Russian oligarch’s aluminum giant, Rusal, we said that aluminum prices are going higher, much higher, for one reason: excluding China’s zombie producers, Rusal is the world’s largest producer of aluminum.

Well, prices have since surged, largely as expected, and one week later we also learned just how “radioactive’ Rusal’s products have become as a result of the US sanctions: overnight Reuters reported that major Japanese trading houses asked the Russian aluminum producer to stop shipping refined aluminum and other products in light of U.S. sanctions on the world’s No.2 producer and are scrambling to secure metal elsewhere, according to industry sources.

“We have requested Rusal stop shipments of aluminum for our term contracts as we can’t make payment in U.S. dollars and we don’t want to take the risk of becoming a secondary sanction target by the United States,” said a source at a trading house, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.

Rusal’s biggest Japanese clients include trading house such as Mitsubishi, Marubeni, Sumitomo and Mitsui. “We are holding internal discussions on what actions are needed to take,” a Sumitomo spokesman said. The trading  house is also talking with customers about alternative supplies, he said. Other Japanese buyers, including fabricators, are also still considering how best to deal with the sanctions on Rusal.

As a result of the US sanctions, Japanese buyers were left with concerns about tightening availability, which has nearly doubled domestic spot premiums for aluminum and lifting global prices by a fifth, a surge which continues  today. London Metal Exchange aluminum topped $2,400 a tonne on Monday for the first time in more than six years and is holding near there on Tuesday. The contract has gained about 20% this month.

It is unclear how and where Japan can find alternative sources of aluminum: Japan buys about 300,000 tonnes of refined aluminum from Russia, about 16% of the nation’s total import, according to the Japan Aluminium Association.

“Everyone has been on a search for substitutes and that pushed local spot premiums to around $200-$250 per tonne by last Friday,” he said.

That’s sharply higher than Japan term premiums for April-June quarter shipments at $129 per tonne.

“The sanction came as a total surprise and we are in an almost panic situation,” a source at a second trading company said. Analysts however have said Japanese buyers would be able to find replacements for refined metal from Australia, the Middle East, Malaysia and India, although securing alternatives for specialized value-added products would be harder.

The trading halt will not come as a surprise to Rusal, however, which last week first proactively reached out to clients telling them to stop payments: “Rusal asked us to halt payments soon after the U.S. sanctions were announced as they can’t access U.S. dollar accounts,” a source at a Japanese fabricator said.

For now, the Russian smelter is still trying to find a way to continue business with customers in Japan by finding an alternative means of settlement, according to Reuters, although this is expected to be complicated as most of its Japanese customers use local banks, which are wary of any business involving companies on a U.S. sanctions list, the source said.

Adding insult to injury, Russia has excluded any possibility of a bailout.

Russia won’t inject sovereign bonds into Rusal’s capital as the country doesn’t use local-currency sovereign bonds and any public debt to support companies under sanctions, according to the Finance Ministry.

Predictably, Rual’s loss is its competitors’ gain and shares in rival suppliers rose again, including China Hongqiao Group which added as much as 3.4% in Hong Kong, while in Australia Alumina, a partner with Alcoa Corp. in the world’s largest bauxite and alumina producer, advanced as much as 4.1%.

Japan is not the only market that has vetoed Rusal products: the sanctions have thrown an estimated $3 billion of aluminum produced by Rusal into limbo as metal produced by the company accounts for more than a third of holdings in warehouses monitored by LME. The exchange has banned, with effect from April 17, deliveries of Rusal-branded metal into its sheds.

* * *

And while Rusal may be headed for insolvency, a new question is just how acute the inflationary impact will be as a result of the soaring aluminum price, especially since some analysts warn the recent breakout is just the beginning.

“The market is looking at $2,800, $3,000,” Jackie Wang, an analyst at CRU Group, told Bloomberg. There are concerns about possible production cuts by Rusal, either because its sales are blocked or the raw material supply chain is affected, according to Wang. LME prices last topped $3,000 in 2008.

But wait, there’s more, because if the US decides to extend the scope of Russian sanctions to nickel, it could have an even more dramatic impact on prices as Russia contributes 10% of supply, compared to 6% for aluminum. Russian copper production could also be included eventually, although it would have a smaller impact as Russia accounts for 4% of world production.

But the biggest irony in Trump’s mini war with Russia – which as a reminder is all for show and meant to “prove” to Robert Mueller just how hard core the president is when it comes to Putin – is that the biggest winner is China: while Russian aluminum supplies are getting shunned, China continues to churn out the metal. According to the latest industrial production data released overnight, China’s primary aluminum output rose 4% to 2.78 million tons in March.

end

c) REPORT ON CHINA/HONG KONG

Hong Kong

With Libor much higher than Hibor, it was a lucrative trade for investors:  shorting the Hong Kong dollar and buying USA dollars/treasuries/bonds.  Hong Kong securities have a tiny yield but the uSA stuff has a much higher yield and thus the reason for loss in value of the Hong Kong dollar.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Hong Kong Is Blowing Billions To Defend The Dollar Peg… And It’s Not Working

Overnight trading in HKD offered a brief moment of hope for the Monetary Authority as the dollar popped off its peg band’s lower limit after comments from the former HKMA chief Joseph Yam renounced the current HKMA chief’s comments and suggested rate-hikes (to counter the endless flow from the LIBOR-HIBOR carry trade) was room for Hong Kong to adjust interest rates and additional exchange fund bill sales can be an option.

However, that did not last, as the flows just kept coming and HKD was back at the 7.85 to the USD level very quickly.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has bought over HKD28.6 billion (USD3.6 billion) since the local currency fell to the weak end of its permitted trading band last week, and as the chart above shows – it’s not working!

There is perhaps a glint of good news for HKMA, as the Hong Kong dollar’s three-month Hibor rate rose to 1.29714%

But, its discount to the greenback’s borrowing costs stayed well above 100bps, which still makes shorting the Hong Kong dollar lucrative.

“The pace of foreign-exchange intervention is not particularly high,” said Frances Cheung, head of Asia macro strategy at Westpac Banking Corp. in Singapore.

“There’s risk of further intervention, and if it is at a similar pace, then the aggregate balance can easily fall below HK$100 billion in one to two months’ time.”

As we explained previously, HKMA has its work cut out to stop this trend as the main culprit behind the local currency’s slump is the carry trade, an arbitrage whereby investors borrow low-yielding currencies to buy high-yielding currencies.

This is an arbitrage, where traders take advantage of differences in prices, selling a low-yielding product (the Hong Kong dollar) to buy a high-yielding product (the US dollar). In this case, the price difference is between the local borrowing cost known as the Hong Kong interbank offered rate (Hibor) and the US borrowing cost known as the Libor.

Simply put, traders are borrowing against the low Hibor, selling the Hong Kong dollar to buy the US currency for investments in high-yielding US assets. The difference between the two is widest since 2008.

As more traders pile on to the carry, more pressure is placed on the Hong Kong dollar, causing it to weaken further against the US currency… and The Fed’s plan to hike rates (as many as four times) will do nothing to help ease the situation – meaning any dollars sold in defense of the weaker HKD will be battling global carry trade flows driven by The Fed’s tightening.

*  *  *

Finally, as a reminder, as far back as 2010, investors have been arguing over whether the Hong Kong Dollar would be “revalued” higher (out of the peg band) – most notably Bill Ackman’s inflation thesis; or “devalued” lower (below the peg band as it is currently testing) – Deutsche Bank’s Mirza Baig’s view.

END

China/USA

Another probe:  this time an anti dumping probe into steel wheels imported form China

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Launches Anti-Dumping Probe Into Steel Wheels From China

The tit-for-tat trade spat between the US and China continued late Tuesday when the US revealed that it is starting a new investigation into whether steel wheels produced in China are illegally dumped in the US – an investigation that’s being carried out at the behest of Accuride and Maxion Wheels, two US vehicle components suppliers, Reuters reported.

In addition to the investigation, the Department of Commerce also revealed on Tuesday that producers of common alloy aluminum sheet imported from China enjoy anticompetitive state subsidies as high as 113.3%, based on findings from an investigation launched in November.
Wheels

The news comes a day after China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that it would impose a massive 178.6% anti-dumping tariff on imported sorghum, a grain used to feed Chinese pigs and other livestock, per Yuan Talks.

The two companies initially petitioned the Department of Commerce and the US International Trade Commission earlier this month, according to Tire Business – a trade publication that covers the tire production and other segments of the auto parts industry.

The petition to the U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) covers certain road-going hub- and stud-piloted steel wheels with rim diameters of 22.5 and 24.5 inches designed principally for use on Class 6, 7 and 8 commercial vehicles.

U.S. trade data show the value of “steel wheel products” imports last year as $420 million.

The petition excludes wheels for tube-type tires and wheels intended primarily for off-road use.

For the Department of Commerce to take action, the ITC must determine that there is a reasonable indication that US industry is materially injured or threatened with material injury by the anti-competitive imports. It can also determine that the development of a US industry has been hampered by the alleged dumping, which floods the market with products sold for less than they cost to produce.

The ITC, acting on a petition from Accuride and Hayes Lemmerz, investigated the same product category in 2012 but found that imports of steel truck wheels from China did not materially injure or threaten U.S. manufacturers.

The petitioners allege antidumping margins of 11.3% to 231.7% and countervailing duty margins of up to 77.3%.

As Tire Business explains, Accuride, based in Evansville, Indiana, is active in three business areas: Medium- and heavy-duty steel and aluminum wheels; medium- and heavy-duty vehicle brake drums, disc wheel hubs, spoke wheels and rotors,  and wheel-end solutions. Maxion, based in Novi, Mich., is a global supplier of light- and heavy-duty steel and aluminum wheels under the Hayes-Lemmerz, Fumagalli and Maxion brands.

end

The trade war escalates as China prepares an “emergency response plan”

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Prepares “Emergency Response Plan” Amid Escalating US Trade War

While in recent days the growing trade war between China and the US has moved off the front page of market concerns despite now daily skirmishes such as today’s anti-dumping probe launch by the US into US steel wheels which followed a Chinese 179% tariff on US sorghum imports which in turn was in response to the US banning exports to Chinese telecom giant ZTE, in recent days China has drawn up comprehensive list of urgent measures as the war of words over US-China trade relations has threatened to escalate into open economic conflict with each side threatening to levy heavy tariffs and taxes on each other’s imports.

Commenting on the recent trade hostilities, National Development and Reform Commission spokesman Zeng Peiyan said on Wednesday that Beijing has all the political instruments it needs to respond to this trade conflict with the United States and minimize its economic effect.

“We have an emergency response plan at various levels and political means to retaliate to the trade challenges, initiated by the United States,” Zeng added.

He stressed that the trade conflict would affect the country’s economy only partially and that China “has the confidence, potential and ability to ensure the stable functioning of the country’s economy.”

Meanwhile, according to Reuters, Beijing’s international trade representatives have held multiple meetings with their counterparts in leading European economies as China, too, seek support in its trade brawl with the US. Recall the US was supposed to do the same with Trump canvassing support for the growing world trade war in Latin America last week, however he was held back by the diversionary Syrian airstikes.

China however, was not detained and Beijing officials met ambassadors from France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Spain and Italy last Thursday and Friday to propose a firewall against Trump’s protectionism, Reuters reported.

“The message was that we have to stand together against US protectionism in favor of free trade,” a European diplomat told Reuters. “China is showing confidence, but internally they appear quite concerned. They have apparently underestimated Trump’s resolve on trade,” the diplomat said, adding that Beijing is nervous that many of China’s trading partners could side with the US.

Besides imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, the Trump administration has also levied European countries with tariffs on steel and aluminum exports to America. Brussels has said that it will seek compensation from Washington through the World Trade Organization.

end

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Greece/Turkey

This is just what the world needed; Turkey flying into Greece airspace harasses the helicopter of Greek Prime Minister Tsipras

(courtesy zerohedge)

Turkish Fighter Jets “Harass” Helicopter Of Greek PM Tsipras

Two Turkish fighter jets harassed the Chinook helicopter carrying Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and the Greek Armed Forces Chief Admiral Evangelos Apostolakis as they were flying from the islet of Ro to Rhodes on Tuesday afternoon, Kathimerini reported.

The Turkish fighter jets, flying at an altitude of 10,000 feet, asked the Greek helicopter pilot, which at that moment was at 1,500 feet, to provide flight details, according to defense sources.

The pilot immediately informed the prime minister and the HNDGS Chief and alerted the Greek air force which dispatched two fighter jets, which approached the area at 20,000 feet.

Speaking earlier from the southeastern Aegean island of Kastellorizo earlier in the day, Tsipras said Greece will defend its principles “in any way it can… and will not cede an inch of territory,” in an apparent dig at recent provocations from Turkey.

“Our neighbors do not always behave in a manner befitting good neighbors,” he said at the inauguration of two desalination units on the island, noting however that he was sending Ankara “a message of cooperation and peaceful coexistence but also of determination.”

Following the confrontation, the Turkish aircraft retreated, which was a welcome development: many have sarcastically noted that with the world on edge geopolitically and in every other way, all it needs is the unexpected death of an Austrian archduke – or a Greek prime minister – to get the ball rolling.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Russia;

Russia is set to announce a possible SWIFT cutoff as well as a  ban of  purchasing American debt from the said SWIFT system.  Russia is developing their own “SWIFT System”

(courtesy  zerohedge)

Russia Is Ready For Possible SWIFT Cutoff, Debt-Sale Ban

As we pointed out earlier, White House chief economic advisor Larry Kudlow said Tuesday afternoon that further sanctions against Russia were “under consideration” at the White House – denying reports that sanctions had been abandoned at President Trump’s behest.

Over the weekend, UN Ambassador Nikki Haley said another round of sanctions would be announced as soon as Monday.

And while Kudlow insists there’s “no confusion” at the White House, Russian media are reporting that the Kremlin is prepared for even the most dramatic actions by the US Treasury, including bans on selling Russian debt and the prohibition of Russian banks from using the SWIFT network.

While Sberbank CEO Herman Gref has said he doesn’t expect the US and European Union to follow through with threats to boot Russia out of SWIFT, as TASS reported, the Kremlin has been working with the country’s banking system to create its own domestic version of SWIFT.

We have been tracking the ‘relationship’ between Russia and the international payments system SWIFT since 2013, when we first reported that the NSA had somehow implanted itself inside SWIFT, and had been tracking flows through the global USD-intermediated financial transaction system.

It wasn’t long after this revelation that Russia started planning its own (possibly BRICS-based) global financial system in furtherance of its goal of de-dollarization.

A year later, the UK demanded that the EU consider kicking Russia out of SWIFT as part of the sanctions levied in response to Russia’s purported activities in Ukraine.

However, removing Russia from the system would carry certain risks, since it would create the opportunity for Russia to demonstrate that it can survive without SWIFT, possibly inspiring other countries to follow its lead.

Swift

But in addition to Russia’s preparations for leaving SWIFT, the country’s central bank said Tuesday that it has a plan for monetizing Russian debt should the US prevent Americans and others who want to maintain their access to the US financial system from trading in Russian debt instruments.

The UK is also reportedly considering a ban on Russian debt trading in the City of London.

To wit, Russian authorities are considering the creation of a special bank to buy OFZs and “classifying the identities of those who will be buying them,” according to an anonymous source quoted by Sputnik.

Already, Russian state tech giant Rostec will use Russia’s homemade analogue of the SWIFT interbank network for cash-transfer services, the company revealed over the weekend, per RT.

Rostec CEO Igor Zavyalov has said that the new system will reduce Russia’s dependence on foreign providers.

Despite Kudlow’s declaration, it’s unlikely that the US would resort to banning Russian banks from using SWIFT, or from trading in Russian debt, according to Sputnik.

But even more important than the SWIFT workaround, hough Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has said there are no plans to ban trading in Russian debt, the Kremlin is still worried that the US might try to stem trading in Russian sovereign debt, and possibly even Russian credit and equities.

Back in February, Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said Russian banks are prepared to operate without SWIFT, the a telecommunications network used to transfer funds between accounts at various global banks.

“Certainly, it is unpleasant, as it will prove a stumbling block for companies and banks, and will slow down work. It will be inevitable to deploy some aged technologies for information transfer and calculations. However, the companies are technically and psychologically ready for the shutdown as this threat was repeatedly voiced,” Dvorkovich said.

Russian leaders have been wary of being cut off by western-controlled financial services ever since MasterCard abruptly cut off its payment system from serving clients of seven Russian banks after Washington imposed its first set of sanctions on Moscow in 2014.

Of course, the US has threatened to cut off countries – even important allies – from the international banking system before. (Indeed, it’s a threat frequently leveraged against nations, like Pakistan, which will be added to a list of terrorism financing nations

END

the sanctions are hurting Russia badly as it is difficult for them to compete with the west with these huge penalties blowing in their faces. Putin is now reportedly ready for deep concessions and seeks a deal with Trump

(courtesy zerohedge)

Putin Reportedly “Ready For Deep Concessions”, Seeks Deal With Trump

We noted earlier that a Foreign Ministry official told Bloomberg that a US official had notified the Russian embassy that no sanctions would be forthcoming, contradicting Haley’s comments from Sunday but affirming a Washington Post report the following day.

And it appears Russia is responding positively to that reported comment, as Bloomberg reports that Russian President Putin wants to give President Trump another chance to make good on pledges to improve ties and avoid escalation, according to four people familiar with the matter.

One said the Kremlin has ordered officials to curb their anti-U.S. rhetoric.

Putin’s decision explains why lawmakers Monday suddenly pulled a draft law that would’ve imposed sweeping counter-sanctions on U.S. companies, two of the people said.

“Putin is ready to make numerous, deep concessions, but he has to appear like he’s not losing,” said Igor Bunin of the Center for Political Technologies, a consultancy whose clients include Kremlin staff.

“He understands Russia can’t compete with the West economically and he doesn’t plan to go to war with the West.”

Amid ominous tweets, conflicting statements from various administration officials, and demands from the Deep State to keep the boot on Russia’s throat, one could be forgiven for brushing off this latest ‘reported’ US-Russia detente as a strawman designed to inspire more ire in Washington and corner Trump further into escalating tensions with Putin.

Finally, Bloomberg  notes that some administration officials are holding out hope that Trump might be able to stop the downward slide, especially after he congratulated Putin on his re-election in March and dangled the prospect of a White House summit. But given the current political climate in the U.S. it’s unlikely that any concession Putin may offer would be enough to bring a real thaw.

END

Badly wounded Russia tries to fight back and now threatens the halt the key rocket engine exports to the USA.  Believe it or not the uSA uses Russian rockets to propel low orbiting satellites.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Russia Threatens To Halt Critical Rocket Engine Exports To The U.S.

Despite earlier reported hopes that Putin seeks a deal with Trump, as opposed to escalating tensions, it appears Russia is planning to do just that.

Last Friday (the 13th), just before the US, UK and France launched 105 Tomahawk missiles at Syria, we noted  that as part of Russian countermeasures against US sanctions, it could halt titanium exports to the US, critical for the production of Boeing airplanes, which promptly sent Boeing’s stock lower. 

As it turns out Russia has leverage not only over the biggest US exporter of airplanes and military equipment:  what piqued our interest, is the United States Department of Defense (DoD) dependency on Russian-manufactured rocket engines to launch military satellites into low Earth orbit (LEO).

Pentagon officials have previously stated their space programs will not migrate to American-built rocket engines until at least 2024, with some analysts forecasting the reliance on Russian-made parts through 2028, the Wall Street Journal reported.

“Despite bipartisan demands from Congress to quickly phase out the RD-180 engines on national-security grounds, it is proving harder than many lawmakers expected to secure an equally reliable domestic replacement. Government and industry officials said United Launch Alliance, the Pentagon’s primary rocket provider, likely will continue flying some 1990s-vintage Atlas V boosters with Russian-built engines through 2024 or 2025.”

So now that Congress neglected to phase out the RD-180, as demanded, it has a different name: Moscow leverage. American-made rocket engines from Lockheed Martin and Boeing are expected to enter the commercialization phase as far out as the mid-2020s, which could develop into a dangerous national security threat considering the recent developments in Syria.

And on Tuesday, the Pentagon’s worst fears were highlighted when Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin announced, “Russia will suspend supplies of rocket engines to the United States in case if a relevant decision is taken by the country’s leadership, but such decision has not been made yet.”

“But can we, say, just stop [supplies of rocket engines to the United States]? We can. But we need to weigh the pros and cons and distinguish pure politics that makes one shoot oneself in the foot from economic pragmatism,” Rogozin told the RBC broadcaster when asked a relevant question.

According to Russian news agency Sputnik, leaders in the lower house of the Federal Assembly of Russia, together with speaker Vyacheslav Volodin introduced a draft law last Friday “on the potential response to US sanctions and anti-Russian policies.”

The draft of new measures specifies a ban on “imports of US agricultural, alcoholic, tobacco products and medical drugs. It also implies the suspension of cooperation between Russia and the United States in nuclear energy, aircraft manufacturing and supplies of rocket engines,” said Sputnik.

The announcement of the new draft comes as the United States Department of the Treasury added another “38 Russian entrepreneurs, senior officials and companies to its sanctions list in response to Russia’s alleged malign activity worldwide,” added Sputnik.

And while Bloomberg suggests that a  Russian export ban on rocket engines will only “hurt Russia” — not the United States…

“Similarly, a ban on the export of Russian rocket engines, which the U.S. still buys, would hurt Russians most of all. The U.S. aerospace industry will find replacements (the biggest U.S. launch company, SpaceX, doesn’t use Russian engines, anyway), but Russia will lose the sales.”

… Pentagon officials are “bracing for potential engine shortages,” the Wall Street Journal said, as it seems like the easy days of America’s military buying Russian-made RD-180s to launch their spy satellites could be coming to an end. Whether the Pentagon will then outsource all its geo-orbital needs to one Elon Musk remains to be seen.

Mac Slavo outlines why there was no chemical bombing in Eastern Damascus(courtesy Mac Slavo/SHTFPlan.com)

Employee Of Bombed Syrian Research Site Says No Chemicals Released Is Proof None Existed

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

An employee of the chemical research center which was bombed by the United States, the United Kingdom, and France says that no chemicals were released during the strike that leveled the building. 

That’s incredibly important proof that no chemical weapons were actually there, he said.

Said Said, an engineer at the Scientific Research Center facility, told RT Arabic that the very fact that no chemicals were released during the strike should serve as evidence that no chemical weapons program was run at the site.

 “You can see for yourself that nothing has happened. I’ve been here since 5:00 a.m. No signs of weapons-grade chemicals,“ he said.

The researcher said he had worked at the facility for decades, and it used to develop medicine and household chemicals.

Before…

After…

The West is alleging Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s leader used chemical weapons on civilians to justify military attacks on Damascus and Homs.  But interestingly enough, those strikes occurred the day before international investigators were scheduled to arrive to conduct a thorough inspection of the site. 

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) had visited the site several times and never found any traces of banned chemicals. Since Syria joined the Chemical Weapons Convention under a deal brokered by Russia and the US in 2013, the UN chemical watchdog repeatedly confirmed its full compliance with its obligations to dismantle and remove its chemical stockpiles. In June 2014, the OPCW declared Syria free of chemical weapons.

On April 12, even US Secretary of Defense James Mattis told the House Armed Services Committee that the US government does not have any evidence that sarin or chlorine was used, that he was still looking for evidence. Yet the bombing happened anyway.

“We even provided them [OPCW] with a special place where they could collect and pack test samples taken during the inspection,”Said told RT. The inspectors would stay in the rooms on the upper floor and use the laboratory equipment, and the staff was “cooperating with them completely.”

Being a civilian research center, the staff did not believe it would be identified as the primary target for an attack. “As we work in civilian pharmaceutical and chemical research, we did not expect that we would be hit,“Said told AFP. The allegations that that Barzeh was an integral part of Syria’s chemical program were “totally incorrect,” he stressed, speaking to CBS News.

Reports by the UN’s chemical watchdog, the latest of which was filed just a month ago, suggest Said is correct, and there are no chemical weapons at the facility.  The reporton the first inspection that was conducted between February 26  and March 5, 2017, says that “the inspection team did not observe any activities inconsistent with obligations under the Convention,“ noting that Damascus had provided unimpeded access to the inspectors “to all selected areas.”

The follow-up inspection, carried out in November, did not find any incriminating evidence either. The March 2018 report reiterates:“As stated in previous reports, all of the chemicals declared by the Syrian Arab Republic that were removed from its territory in 2014 have now been destroyed.”

end

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

CANADA

Canada’s economy has not been performing well this this year. With inflation looming, many thought that the Governor might raise rates.  He did not.  Canada has the highest household debt to GDP in the industrialized world

(courtesy zerohedge)

Loonie Drops As Bank Of Canada Holds Rates (As Expected)

With Canadian economic data at its most disappointing in 20 months, domestic trade-wars over oil pipelines exploding, and a housing market on the verge of collapse, The Bank of Canada held rates unchanged (as expected), sending a weak signal that sparked Loonie selling…

Bank of Canada Holds Benchmark Overnight Rate at 1.25%

2018 has not been a good one for Canada’s economy…

but BOC writes off 1Q growth weakness, saying it will rebound in 2Q.

Slower economic growth in the first quarter primarily reflects weakness in two areas. Housing markets responded to new mortgage guidelines and other policy measures by pulling forward transactions to late 2017. Exports also faltered, partly owing to transportation bottlenecks. Some of the weakness in housing and exports is expected to be unwound as 2018 progresses.

Also says the economy will be slightly above potential over the next 3 years, crediting federal and provincial budget measures.

But the FX market is not buying it…

The central bank played down a faster-than-expected pick-up in inflation as temporary, arguing the shocks of higher gas prices and minimum wages in some provinces will dissipate by 2019.

These releases codify Poloz’s narrative the expansion can be prolonged without fueling inflation.

Key highlights (vis Bloomberg):

  • BOC reiterates that “Governing Council will remain cautious with respect to future policy adjustments” and be “guided by incoming data”
  • BOC: “Higher interest rates will be warranted over time, although some monetary policy accommodation will still be needed”
  • Inflation expected to average 2.3% over 2018, from 2.0% previously; Core measures have edged up to near 2 percent, “consistent with an economy operating with little slack”
  • Wage growth is firming, but Bank “will continue to assess labour market data for signs of remaining slack”
  • Bank of Canada makes upward revision to 2019 growth: GDP expected to grow 2.0% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019, from 2.2% and 1.6% respectively;
  • Housing will not contribute to growth in 2018 and 2019, exports will not contribute to growth in 2018 (from +0.6pp previously)
  • Export growth is “being increasingly limited by capacity constraints in some sectors”, and both exports and business investment are “being held back by ongoing competitiveness challenges and uncertainty about trade policies”
  • Export contribution to growth in 2018 revised down to 0.0pp, from 0.6pp in last MPR
  • BOC: “The prospect of a notable shift toward protectionist global trade policies remains the most important risk affecting the outlook”
  • BOC outlook on geopolitics and trade: “Escalating geopolitical and trade conflicts” could undermine global expansion; “Wide range of outcomes” still possible for NAFTA; “Monetary and fiscal policy are expected to support economic activity over the projection horizon and to help mitigate the drag on business investment and exports associated with trade-policy uncertainty and trade competitiveness challenges”

Finally, we note Canada is increasingly becoming a one-trick-pony…

Canada’s share of U.S. non-energy goods imports has fallen to about 10% from 17% since around 2002…

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil and gasoline surge after a huge across the board inventory draw down

(courtesy zerohedge)

WTI/RBOB Surge After Across-The-Board Inventory Draws

WTI/RBOB has surged since last night’s across-the-board bullish API report, and while DOE showed that US crude production rose to a new record high, it confirmed API’s draws across all components.

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Energy Analyst Vince Piazza explains that, impelled by WTI discounts to Brent of greater than $5 a barrel, domestic refinery runs are expected to push higher.

Strength in crude exports, relative to last year, should persist even with recent sequential softness. While summer driving season presents a demand catalyst, U.S. crude production remains robust.

API

  • Crude -1.047mm (+650k exp)
  • Cushing -1.015mm (-650k exp)
  • Gasoline -2.473mm
  • Distillates -845k

DOE

  • Crude -1.071mm (+650k exp)
  • Cushing -1.115mm (-650k exp)
  • Gasoline -2.968mm
  • Distillates -3.107mm

DOE data confirmed the API across-the-board inventory drawdown.

Total petroleum stockpiles haven’t been this low since March 2015…

As rig counts continue to rise, so US crude production is accelerating, rising 15k b/d to yet another new record high…

Which remains the big impediment to OPEC achieving its goal…

“They are willingly over-tightening this market,” said Jan Stuart, an oil economist at consultant Cornerstone Macro LLC in New York. “It’s not self-defeating if what you are looking for is a little extra money. If the idea is to get a ton of money in the door now, then they’re probably doing the right thing.”

“Would they declare victory now and stop? No way,” said Mike Wittner, head of oil market research at Societe Generale SA. “They’re happy to see inventories continue to go down, to see prices of $70 or $80. In the end, it’s about revenues. The question is at what point do they become uncomfortable with higher prices?”

WTI/RBOB prices accelerated overnight on OPEC chatter after extremely bullish API data and spiked further on the DOE confirmation…

Of course, fundamentals aside, the ‘biggest’ driver of the surge in oil is simple – Dennis Gartman went short!

end

8. EMERGING MARKET

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.2384 UP .0013/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL IN THE GREEN    

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.17 UP  0.148 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/DEADLY UNWINDING OF YEN CARRY TRADE

GBP/USA 1.4215 DOWN .0082  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.2576 UP .0018 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 13 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.2384; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 24.60 POINTS OR 0.80% /   Hang Sang CLOSED UP 221.50 POINTS OR 0.74% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .37% / EUROPEAN BOURSES  OPENED IN THE GREEN

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED UP 310.61 POINTS OR 1.42%

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED  IN THE GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 221.50 POINTS OR 0.74%  / SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 24.60 POINTS OR 0.70%   /

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .37% 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 310.61 POINTS OR 1.42%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN 

Gold very early morning trading: 1350.00

silver:$16.95

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.8377% !!! UP 1  IN POINTS from TUESDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/ 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.0238 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early  WEDNESDAY morning: 89.56 UP 5  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.610% DOWN 1  in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.0.038% DOWN 4/5    in basis points yield from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.217% DOWN 1  IN basis point yield from TUESDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.717  DOWN 4  POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 51 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:RISES TO +.531%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2379 UP .0007 (Euro UP 7 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 107.22 UP 0.208 Yen DOWN 21 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.4219 DOWN .0077( POUND DOWN 77 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2643 UP  .0086 Canadian dollar DOWN 86 Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $67.85

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This afternoon, the Euro was UP 7 to trade at 1.2379

The Yen FELL to 107.22 for a LOSS of 22 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND FELL BY 77 basis points, trading at 1.4219/

The Canadian dollar FELL by 86 basis points to 1.2619/ WITH WTI OIL RISING TO : $67.85

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.2744
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.038%  DOWN 4/5   IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 1  1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.8488% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.0206  DOWN 0     in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index,89.60  UP 9 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED UP 91.29 POINTS OR 1.26%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 5.26 POINTS OR 0.04%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 26.63  POINTS OR 0.50%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 53.40 POINTS OR 0.54%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 160.84 POINTS OR 0.47%

The Dow closed DOWN   38.56 POINTS OR 0.16%

NASDAQ UP  14.14 Points OR 0.19% 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 67.85 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 72.80 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 61.549 DOWN 44/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 44 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO +.507% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$68.81

BRENT: $73.80

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.8728%   THIS RAPID DECENT IN YIELD IS ALSO VERY DANGEROUS/RECESSION COMING

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.0617%/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.2376 UP .0004  (UP 4 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.22 UP 0.203/ YEN DOWN 20 BASIS POINTS/ very dangerous as yen carry traders are getting killed/yen continues to rise despite the NYSE rising. however gold is now breaking away from yen influence.

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 89.61 UP 10 cent(s)/dangerous as the lower the dollar the higher the inflation.

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.4207: DOWN 0.0089  (FROM LAST NIGHT DOWN 89 POINTS)

Canadian dollar: 1.2628 UP 70 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.507%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.60  CLOSED  UP  0.35

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.3552%  ..LIBOR HAS INCREASED FOR 49 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Banks & Big Blue Battered; Bond Yields Bounce; Big Tech, Bullion, & Bitcoin Bid

Good is bad, up is down, stocks are safe, war is peace…

The Dow underperformed notably, driven mostly by IBM weakness (swiping 84 points off The Dow), but Trannies surged once again…

Futures show overnight gains, a dump at the open followed by panic-buying… and then a weak close…

Big bank stocks are not loving blockbuster earnings…

Tech is now at its highest relative to financials since 2000…

VIX jumped up to almost 17 across the CBOE Futures auction pre-market, before tumbling lower for the rest of the day…

Stocks and bonds remain decoupled this week…

The Treasury yield curve was in freefall…

Before suddenly bouncing steeper after Europe closed today…

With 2s30s…(down to 58bps today)

And 2s10s… (down to 41bps today)

5s30s is approaching unprecedented territory: it flattened again today for the 9th straight session, to about 29 basis points, before bouncing back

The spread has narrowed 10 consecutive times on only a few occasions..,And has never compressed 11 trading days in a row, according to Bloomberg data going back to 1992.

“The yield curve can’t flatten every day,” said Jim Vogel, a strategist at FTN Financial Capital Markets. “But it certainly seems willing to try.”

2Y Treasury-to-3m LIBOR has inverted…

All of which has crushed small banking stocks relative to the market…

Breakevens and Real Yields spiked this afternoon…

The Dollar Index held on to gains for a second day in a row – despite some notable swings…

The Turkish Lira surged after Erdogan called early elections…

The Ruble ticked higher on ‘old news’ headlines that Washington was unlikely to hit Russia with more sanctions…

Cryptocurrencies were all higher today but note the extremely disjointed price action of the last few days as huge volume buys and sells hit the markets simultaneously…

Bitcoin seems to have found support at $8,000…

Despite dollar gains, commodities all surged today…led by PMs

Meanwhile in industrial commodities, Nickel exploded higher and aluminum kept surging…

  • *LME 3-MONTH NICKEL SETTLES $1,060 HIGHER AT $15,275 A TON
  • *LME 3-MONTH ALUMINUM SETTLES $132 HIGHER AT $2,537 A TON
  • *LME 3-MONTH ZINC SETTLES $111 HIGHER AT $3,265 A TON
  • *LME 3-MONTH COPPER SETTLES $145 HIGHER AT $7,022 A TON

WTI/RBOB surged after API overnight, spiked on DOE confirmation, then dipped… then ripped to new multi-year highs…

And Gold and Silver jumped today… with Silver breaking out to near 3-month highs…

end
Early trading/NY
Yield curve inversion across the board signals trouble ahead..
(courtesy zerohedge)

The Yield Curve Continues To Collapse…

As stocks soar back towards record highs shrugging off every fear as if it was 2017 all over again, the Treasury market is starting to scream ‘trouble ahead’…

Since The Fed hiked rates in March, the yield curve has collapsed…

2s30s is below 60bps for the first time since Oct 2007…

2s10s is at 41bps intraday!!

5s30s is testing 30bps…

And 10s30s is back to just 17bps…

Even The Fed’s Williams warned yesterday that he would view “yield curve inversion as warning signal” noting that a “inverted curve was a powerful recession signal” and added that “if the yield curve inverted, her would take it seriously.”

Perhaps that’s why stocks are up… in the irrational mind of today’s central-banker-inspired investors, the closer we get to inverted, the closer The Fed is to ending its tightening cycle and hey presto… more QE, stocks go up!!??!!

“probably nothing…”

* * *

Bonus Chart: US Treasury 2Y Yields have never been this wide relative to German 2Y Bund Yields… ever…

end
Trump confirms that Mike Pompeo has met with Kim Jong Un of North Korea
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Confirms: “Mike Pompeo Met With Kim Jong Un”

Confirming reports first published late last night by the Washington Post, Trump tweeted Wednesday morning that CIA Director (and Secretary of State nominee) Mike Pompeo did, in fact, meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

The visit, conducted on behalf of the Trump administration, was a clandestine mission and followed a meeting between Trump and a delegation from South Korea last month that was attended by Pompeo. Trump said the visit took place last week but it was reported earlier that the meeting took place during the first weekend in April.

Donald J. Trump✔@realDonaldTrump

Mike Pompeo met with Kim Jong Un in North Korea last week. Meeting went very smoothly and a good relationship was formed. Details of Summit are being worked out now. Denuclearization will be a great thing for World, but also for North Korea!

Speaking at his Florida beach resort Tuesday ahead of bilateral meetings with Shinzo Abe, Trump confirmed that the two governments had held direct party-to-party talks for the first time without the South Koreans acting as intermediaries. Trump disclosed that the two countries were hoping to hold the historic meeting in early June, or possibly before.

The White House had no further comment. “The administration does not comment on the CIA director’s travel,” White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said.

North Korea said in a letter personally delivered to Trump by a South Korean delegation that it was ready to consider “denuclearization” if the safety of the regime is guaranteed.”

END

The Fed’s Beige Book for April has been released and it seems that all 12 Fed districts are concerned  with the tariffs.  Also wage growth is not forthcoming as they would have liked

(courtesy zerohedge)

Fed’s Beige Book: Sheer Panic Over Tariffs As Wage Growth Fizzles

Last month, we summarized the March Beige Book by saying that “(Wage) inflation is here”, at least on paper because according to the Fed, “most Districts saw employers raise wages and expand benefit packages in response to tight labor market conditions.” Or maybe not, because in the latest just released April Beige book, fears about sharply higher wages, which launched the February volatility explosion, are dead and buried as “upward wage pressures persisted but generally did not escalate” and “most Districts reported wage growth as only modest.”

So what would be the quick and dirty summary for the April Beige Book, when economic activity continued to expand “at a modest to moderate pace across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts”? In a word, literally, “tariffs” and here’s why:

  • March Beige Book instances of word “tariff”: 0
  • April Beige Book instances of word “tariff”: 36

But before we get to that, here are some big picture observations by the Fed on overall economic activity in March and early April:

  • Outlooks remained positive, though contacts in various sectors including manufacturing, agriculture, and transportation expressed concern about the newly imposed or proposed tariffs
  • Residential construction and real estate activity expanded further, although low home inventories continued to constrain sales in several Districts
  • Contacts in the energy sector cited a pickup in activity, except in the Richmond District, where coal production was flat and natural gas production dipped slightly

Inflation was also muted, with prices increasing across all Districts, but at a moderate pace, although there were widespread reports that steel prices rose, sometimes dramatically, due to trade tensions. The Fed also notes that
businesses generally anticipated further price increases in the months ahead, particularly for steel and building materials.

On wages and labor, as noted above, “most Districts reported wage growth as only modest” while “reports of labor shortages over the reporting period were most often cited in high-skill positions, including engineering, information technology, and health care, as well as in construction and transportation.” And while the Fed believes that “businesses were responding to labor shortages in a variety of ways, from raising pay to enhancing training to increasing their use of overtime or automation”, we would note here that the right answer is d: automation, despite the following vivid anecdote from the Dallas Fed: “Contacts reported that some rural employers were busing in workers from nearby cities because their local labor pool was tapped out.”

So going back to the top issue worrying the Fed this month, namely tariffs, here’s some context:

  • “There were widespread reports that steel prices rose, sometimes dramatically, due to the new tariff.”
  • “Prices grew moderately, overall, but steel and aluminum prices rose sharply and were expected to rise further as a result of the tariffs.”
  • “Numerous contacts expressed concern about new tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, although outlooks overall were still positive.”
  • “two contacts brought up the proposed China tariffs and said they represent a major risk” – Boston Fed
  • “contact argued that ‘these tariffs are now killing high-paying American manufacturing jobs and businesses’.” – Boston Fed.
  • “Of the 22 manufacturing firms that offered general comments, seven mentioned impacts from recent tariffs or proposed tariffs – most noted rising prices or anticipated rising prices; just one firm anticipated greater demand.” – Philly Fed
  • “According to contacts, recently imposed tariffs have accelerated price appreciation of steel products, in some cases at double-digit rates.” – Cleveland Fed
  • “One steel manufacturer mentioned that customers are attempting to stock up as prices rise because of increased demand and tariffs on primary metals imports” – Cleveland Fed
  • “There is concern about the sustainability of increasing volume because of newly enacted tariffs and potential outcomes from NAFTA negotiations.” – Cleveland Fed
  • “Steel and aluminum prices rose sharply and were expected to rise further as a result of recently-imposed tariffs.” – Richmond Fed
  • “A Virginia display case manufacturer reported stockpiling steel in anticipation of higher prices resulting from the new tariffs” – Richmond Fed
  • “Some contacts noted rising prices for transportation, as well as steel as tariff rhetoric increased.” – Atlanta Fed
  • “Manufacturers facing higher steel and aluminum costs because of the new tariffs expected to pass on about half of the increased costs to their customers on average” – Chicago Fed
  • “Steel imports spiked in anticipation of the 25% tariff imposed in late March. Demand for heavy machinery increased strongly, as end-user demand expanded and dealers rebuilt inventories.” – Chicago Fed
  • “Multiple contacts reported dramatic increases in the prices for steel products, partly attributable to recently announced tariffs; a manufacturer of tractor trailers said they “can’t raise prices as fast as material costs.” – Minneapolis Fed
  • “The majority of contacts said potential steel and aluminum tariffs would have a low-to-medium impact on their drilling costs, and several have already experienced moderate increases in the cost of steel.” – Kansas City Fed
  • “Outlooks, while still optimistic, have become more uncertain due to new tariffs and trade concerns” – Dallas Fed
  • “Downstream energy contacts were still figuring out how much of their steel is subject to the new tariff and how that will affect their costs and investment decisions.” – Dallas Fed
  • “Several manufacturers said that talk of steel tariffs immediately resulted in higher steel prices.” – Dallas Fed
  • “Contacts reported a jump in inflationary pressures for metals prices, partly due to the anticipation of tariffs and unrelated increases in raw material costs.” – San Francisco Fed

In short, everyone appears to be freaking out over the inflationary impact of tariffs. And here is the kicker: in a growing, vibrant economy, there would be no panic as businesses could simply pass on these costs to consumers. The fact that there are no less than 36 instances of “tariff panic” confirms all you need to know about the pricing power of US businesses.

What is more problematic is whether the Fed will view inflationary tariffs as a reason to hike rates again in two months, or to keep them unchanged due to the resulting decline in consumer purchasing power.

Finally, here are selected key anecdotes from the Beige book, courtesy of Bloomberg:

  • Boston: One contact said: “Thin gauge foil” is produced only in China and tariffs raised the price three-fold; the contact argued that “these tariffs are now killing high-paying American manufacturing jobs and businesses.”
  • New York: A New York City agency reports that a new law prohibiting potential employers from asking about a candidate’s salary history has led candidates to demand higher pay
  • Philadelphia: Of the 22 manufacturing firms that offered general comments, seven mentioned impacts from recent tariffs or proposed tariffs – most noted rising prices or anticipated rising prices; just one firm anticipated greater demand.
  • Cleveland: One accounting firm noted that its work in mergers and acquisitions was the strongest that it has been in the past 10 years.
  • Richmond: A Virginia display case manufacturer reported stockpiling steel in anticipation of higher prices resulting from the new tariffs.
  • Atlanta: Global demand for liquefied natural gas continued to intensify, resulting in rising exports of LNG out of Louisiana’s Sabine Pass liquefaction terminal.
  • Chicago: Steel production increased at a moderate pace, primarily in response to steady end-user demand. Steel imports spiked in anticipation of the 25% tariff imposed in late March.
  • St. Louis: Reports from contacts in Little Rock indicate that wages have risen for workers such as truck drivers, warehouse workers, and skilled mechanics
  • Minneapolis: A western Montana staffing contact said labor orders were “up in all of our markets. Our biggest struggle is lack of candidates.”
  • Kansas City: The majority of contacts said potential steel and aluminum tariffs would have a low-to-medium impact on their drilling costs, and several have already experienced moderate increases in the cost of steel
  • Dallas: Drought conditions plagued much of Texas, severely so in the Texas panhandle. Lack of soil moisture particularly affected winter wheat, and the crop was largely in poor to very poor condition.
  • San Francisco: Demand for workers experienced in cybersecurity was up
SWAMP STORIES
No question about it:  Michael Cohen must be worried.  It seems that the Judge Kinba Wood is Deep State, former playboy funny and a staunch Democrat
(courtesy zerohedge)

5 Fast Facts About The Federal Judge In Michael Cohen’s Case (And Why Trump Should Be Worried)

Submitted by Ann of The Political Insider

Federal Judge Kimba Wood will be overseeing the court case against President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael Cohen. Here are five facts about Judge Wood – and why Trump should be very worried.

1. She was President Bill Clinton’s pick for Attorney General in 1993

President Bill Clinton nominated Wood to become the first female Attorney General. In fact, Wood was hand-picked by Hillary Clinton, who had been asked to submit a list of possible nominees for her husband’s consideration. However, Wood withdrew from the nomination after the White House learned about her brief time as a Playboy Bunny – and that she employed an illegal alien as a nanny. Further, Wood actually helped the nanny to illegally remain in the country by paying taxes for her.

2. She trained as a Playboy Bunny

The daughter of a U.S. Army career officer and speechwriter, Wood spent much of her childhood and young adulthood in Europe. While studying at the London School of Economics in the 1960s, she trained for a few days as a croupier at a Playboy Bunny casino, but quit because “she thought the gig was silly.” Nevertheless, the job would haunt her in her later career and played a role in costing her the position of Attorney General.

3. She had an extramarital affair that earned her the nickname the “Love Judge”

Wood might be a judge, but her personal past indicates that her moral scruples are lacking. In 1995 at the age of 51, Wood began an affair with married multimillionaire Wall Street financier Frank Richardson. The affair was uncovered by Richardson’s wife when she found passionate passages written about Wood in Richardson’s diary. The tryst earned Wood the nickname the “Love Judge” during Richardson’s divorce trial. Wood married Richardson in 1999.

4. She officiated George Soros’s wedding

Wood officiated the 2013 wedding of notorious liberal billionaire George Soros. At the time, Soros was 83 and his bride, Tamiko Bolton, was 42. Numerous prominent liberals attended the wedding, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and then-California Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsome. In lieu of wedding gifts, the couple asked that donations be made to several organizations including Planned Parenthood and Global Witness, an environmental activist group.

5. She doesn’t believe in attorney-client privilege

During Cohen’s hearing on Monday, Wood forced Cohen to expose the identity of a previously unnamed client. That client turned out to be none other than Fox News host Sean Hannity, who maintains that he only asked Cohen for legal advice as a friend and never retained or paid him for any legal services.

Sebastian Gorka DrG✔@SebGorka

This is the woman presiding over the court case involving @realDonaldTrump’s lawyer.

Her name is Kimba Wood.

She forced lawyer Michael Cohen to disclose the names of his OTHER clients.

She is a Clinton confidante who was chosen by Hillary to be AG.

The is real.

As many people have pointed out, you couldn’t make this stuff up if you tried.

Robby Starbuck✔@robbystarbuck

You really can’t make this stuff up. The Federal Judge, Kimba Wood, who officiated the wedding of George Soros is presiding over the already controversial case regarding a raid of the President’s lawyer. How can anyone possibly argue this isn’t explicitly partisan optics? https://twitter.com/jackposobiec/status/986006913283477510 …

Twitter Ads info and privacy

Michael Smerconish✔@smerconish

Wait a minute….the judge hearing the Michel Cohen case today is Kimba Wood? That Kimba Wood? Harvard Law grad who once trained a few days as Playboy Bunny + once nominated by Bill Clinton as AG? Stuff you just could not make up.

Jack Murphy@RealJack

Kimba Wood, judge presiding in Trump’s lawyer Michael Cohen’s case is a left-wing HACK.

She was chosen by Bill Clinton (Hillary’s decision) to be AG.

She officiated George Soros’ wedding.

She just forced Cohen to turn over his other clients.

IT DOESN’T GET MORE SETUP!!!

Mike Cernovich 🇺🇸✔@Cernovich

“Soros and Bolton, 42, exchanged vows in a small ceremony at his Bedford, New York, estate…Federal judge Kimba Wood officiated at the non-denominational wedding.”

Same judge as on Trump case.

Can’t script this story.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-soros-wedding/billionaire-soros-weds-consultant-in-third-marriage-idUSBRE98J0XZ20130922 …

Billionaire Soros weds consultant in third marriage

George Soros, the 83-year-old billionaire investor, philanthropist and supporter of liberal political causes, married for a third time on Saturday, tying the knot with education consultant Tamiko…

reuters.com

Has the deep state ever been more obvious than it is now?

END

Haley is not confused re the Russian sanction story..it was just that Trump changed his mind and he continues to do so

(courtesy zerohedge)

“I Don’t Get Confused”: Nikki Haley And Larry Kudlow Trade Barbs Over Russia Sanctions

U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley batted down a claim by National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow that she was “confused” and got “ahead of the curve” when she announced that new sanctions would be handed down to Russia on Monday, during an appearance on Sunday’s Face the Nation.

On Tuesday, Kudlow said Haley “got ahead of the curve,” adding “She’s done a great job, she’s a very effective ambassador. There might have been some momentary confusion about that.” Kudlow says that additional sanctions are “under consideration but not implemented.”

“With all due respect, I don’t get confused,” fired back Haley in a statement to Fox News’ Dana Perino.

Axios reports that “A number of senior White House officials anonymously told reporters that Haley made a mistake by making the announcement ahead of President Trump and that it shouldn’t have been made public on the Sunday morning show,” adding “A senior official said Trump was angry about the situation.”

Haley’s allies, meanwhile, say she cleared her remarks with the White House and that Trump changed his mind according to Axios’ sources.

Kudlow walked back his “confused” comment, telling the New York Times “I was wrong to say that – totally wrong,” and that he had spoken with Haley via telephone to apologize for his remark. Kudlow said he had “misspoken based on incomplete information.”

“She was certainly not confused,” Mr. Kudlow said in a brief interview. “I was wrong to say that — totally wrong.”

“As it turns out, she was basically following what she thought was policy,” Mr. Kudlow added. “The policy was changed and she wasn’t told about it, so she was in a box.” –NYT

It’s not clear then if Kudlow is now of the view that it was Trump who was confused. White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said that the White House is “considering additional sanctions on Russia,” however no decision has been reached.

So as tensions start to build between Trump and the UN ambassador, is Haley about to become the next administration official to lose the next round of musical chairs?

end

Each side has selected choices that we would be good candidates for “Special Master” although the Government would not like to have a Master but a Government filter agent.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Prosecutors In Cohen Case Release “Special Master” Nominations

Prosecutors from the Eastern District of New York have released their suggestions for special master in the Michael Cohen case, the Southern District of New York revealed on Wednesday.

Assuming Judge Kimba Wood decides to move ahead with a special master, one of the men (and they are all men) will be appointed to dig through the documents (and records and digital files and…) seized by the FBI during a raid on Cohen’s home, hotel room and office.

Cohen’s team requested a special master in a letter submitted ahead of a hearing last week, and Wood has intimated that she might be open to appointing one – hence, the nominations.

erica orden

✔@eorden

Michael Cohen’s attorneys have submitted their four suggestions for a potential special master to review some or all of the seized material, per a new filing. pic.twitter.com/sFvLYh3A6b

erica orden

✔@eorden

In a new court filing, prosecutors in the Michael Cohen case have provided their recommended names for a special master. They are all former magistrate judges:

1. Hon. Frank Maas (Ret.)
2. Hon. James C. Francis IV (Ret.)
3. Hon. Theodore Katz (Ret.)

All of the prosecution’s picks are retired judges who served in the Southern District of New York with minimal political connections. Their names are James Francis, Frank Maas and Theodore Katz.

Last night, Cohen’s legal team submitted four suggestions: Bart Schwartz, Joan McPhee, Tai Park and George Canellos – all of whom appear to be working defense attorneys.

erica orden

✔@eorden

Michael Cohen’s attorneys have submitted their four suggestions for a potential special master to review some or all of the seized material, per a new filing.

Judge Wood will ultimately decide who will be appointed to the “special master” role after reviewing the nominees.

Cohen

The government is also expected to finish sorting through the seized evidence by May 11.

erica orden

✔@eorden

Replying to @eorden

In a new court filing, prosecutors in the Michael Cohen case have provided their recommended names for a special master. They are all former magistrate judges:

1. Hon. Frank Maas (Ret.)
2. Hon. James C. Francis IV (Ret.)
3. Hon. Theodore Katz (Ret.)

erica orden

✔@eorden

The government also says it expects to complete production of the seized material to Michael Cohen’s attorneys by May 11. And prosecutors write that they think a special master, if appointed, wouldn’t be able to begin a review of the material until at least June.

Both the government and Cohen’s legal team agreed on May 25 for the next status conference.

erica orden

✔@eorden

Replying to @eorden

The government also says it expects to complete production of the seized material to Michael Cohen’s attorneys by May 11. And prosecutors write that they think a special master, if appointed, wouldn’t be able to begin a review of the material until at least June.

erica orden

✔@eorden

The government says that the parties jointly request May 25 as the date for the next status conference in the Michael Cohen case.

In a document submitted with its picks, the New York prosecutors make it clear that they would prefer Wood not appoint a special master – an alternative that is favored by Cohen and his legal team.

Adam Klasfeld

✔@KlasfeldReports

BREAKING: Here are the SDNY prosecutors’ recommendations for the special masters in the Cohen case: three retired magistrate judges.

I’ll share the government’s full letter in a moment. pic.twitter.com/SlhoWcgiZi

Adam Klasfeld

✔@KlasfeldReports

Here’s the government’s letter, which:

* Proposes a status conference on May 25
* Emphasizes they don’t want any special master at all.https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4440150-AUSACohen-4-17-18.html …

AUSACohen 4 17 18

Source document contributed to DocumentCloud by Adam Klasfeld (Courthouse News).

documentcloud.org

Read the full document below:

Southern District by Zerohedge on Scribd

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/376728084/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&access_key=key-BDjLd2I5nMGRatF0QUBj&show_recommendations=true

end

The fun begins;  11 GOP members of Congress have written a letter to Attorney General Jeff Sessions asking them to investigate Comey , Clinton, Lynch, Strzok and Page under the criminal code.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Criminal Referral Issued For Comey, Clinton, Lynch And McCabe; Rosenstein Recusal Demanded

Eleven GOP members of Congress led by Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) have written a letter to Attorney General Jeff Sessions, Attorney John Huber, and FBI Director Christopher Wray – asking them to investigate former FBI Director James Comey, Hillary Clinton and others – including FBI lovebirds Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, for a laundry list of potential crimes surrounding the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

Recall that Sessions paired special prosecutor John Huber with DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz – falling short of a second Special Counsel, but empowering Horowitz to fully investigate allegations of FBI FISA abuse with subpoena power and other methods he was formerly unable to utilize.

Photo: Conservative Treehouse

The GOP letter’s primary focus appears to be James Comey, while the charges for all include obstruction, perjury, corruption, unauthorized removal of classified documents, contributions and donations by foreign nationals and other allegations.

The letter also demands that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein “be recused from any examination of FISA abuse,” and recommends that “neither U.S. Attorney John Huber nor a special counsel (if appointed) should report to Rosenstein.“

The letter refers the following individuals for the following conduct:

James Comey – obstruction, perjury, corruption, stealing public property or records, gathering transmitting or losing defense information, unauthorized removal and retention of classified documents, false statements. 

  • “Comey’s decision not to seek charges against Clinton’s misconduct suggests improper investigative conduct, potentially motivated by a political agenda.”
  • The letter calls Comey out for leaking his confidential memos to the press. “In light of the fact that four of the seven memos were classified, it would appear that former Director Comey leaked classified information when sharing these memos…“
  • Comey “circulated a draft statement” of the FBI’s decision to exonerate Hillary Clinton for mishandling classified information – a conclusion reached before the agency had interviewed key witnesses. “At that point, 17 interviews with potential witnesses had not taken place, including with Clinton and her chief of staff…”
  • The letter also seeks clarification on “material inconsistencies between the description of the FBI’s relationship with Mr. Steele that you [then FBI Director Comey] did provide in your briefing and information contained in Justice Department documents made available to the Committee only after the briefing.”

Hillary Clinton – contributions and donations by foreign nationals

  • “A lawyer representing the Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee paid Washington firm Fusion GPS to conduct research that led to the Steele dossier…”
  • “Accordingly, for disguising payments to Fusion GPS on mandatory disclosures to the Federal Election Commission, we refer Hillary Clinton to DOJ for potential violation(s) of 52 USC 30121 and 52  USC 30101”

Loretta Lynch – obstruction, corruption

  • “We raise concerns regarding her decision to threaten with reprisal the former FBI informant who tried to come forward in 2016 with insight into the Uranium One deal.”
  • Of note, this refers to longtime CIA and FBI undercover informant William D. Campbell, who came forward with evidence of bribery schemes involving Russian nuclear officials, an American trucking company, and efforts to route money to the Clinton Global Initiative (CGI).

Andrew McCabe – false statements, perjury, obstruction

  • “During the internal Hillary Clinton investigation, Mr. McCabe “lacked candor — including under oath — on multiple occasions,” the letter reads. “That is a fireable offense, and Mr. Sessions said that career, apolotical employees at the F.B.I. and Justice Department agreed that Mr. McCabe should be fired.”
  • “The DOJ Office of the Inspector General recently released a February 2018 misconduct report… confirming four instances of McCabe’s lack of candor, including three instances under oath, as well as the conclusion that McCabe’s decision to confirm the existence of the Clinton Foundation Investigation through an anonymously sourced quite violated the FBI’s and DOJ’s media policy and constituted misconduct.”

Peter Strzok and Lisa Page – obstruction, corruption, 

  • “We raise concerns regarding their interference in the Hillary Clinton investigation regarding her use of a personal email server.”
  • Referring to a Wall Street Journal article from January 22, 2018 – “The report provides the following alarming specifics, among others: “Mr. Strzok texts Ms. Page to tell her that, in fact, senior officials had decided to water down the reference to President Obama to ‘another senior government official.” By the time Mr. Comey gave his public statement on July 5, both references – to Mr. Obama and to “another senior government official” had disappeared.”

“Department of Justice (DOJ) and FBI personnel connected to the compilation of documents on alleged links between Russia and then-presidential candidate Donald Trump known as the “Steele dossier.” 

  • This section of the letter calls out Comey, McCabe, former acting AG Sally Yates, and former acting Deputy AG Dana Boente regarding the Steele dossier.
  • “we raise concerns regarding the presentation of false and/or unverified information to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court in connection with the former Trump aide Carter Page” 
  • “Former and current DOJ and FBI leadership have confirmed to the Committee that unverified information from the Steele dossier comprised an essential part of the FISA applications related to Carter Page” 
  • “Accordingly we refer to DOJ all DOJ and FBI personnel responsible for signing the Carter Page warrant application that contained unverified and/or false information”

The criminal referrals for the group allegedly responsible for FISA abuse include: obstruction, deprivation of rights under color of law, corruption.

Read the full letter below:

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/376722864/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&access_key=key-HYejd6pMz81Zy8fQHNsT&show_recommendations=true

I will  see you  THURSDAY night

HARVEY

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