NOV 13/GOLD DOWN $1.75 TO $1201.15/SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TO $14.00/DESPITE THE DROP IN PRICE HUGE INCREASES IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST PLUS EFP’S/CHINA IS ENDURING ITS FIRST CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT DUE TO INVESTORS CASHING IN THEIR CHINESE BONDS/ TODAY IS THE LAST DAY FOR ITALY TO RESUBMIT ITS BUDGETARY DEFICIT: IT FILED TODAY THE SAME BUDGET/EXPECT A MAJOR INCURSION INTO THE GAZA STRIP BY THE ISRAELIS/CRUDE CRASHES AS THE SAUDI ABANDON PRODUCTION CUTS/LOOKS LIKE MORE MUELLER INDICTMENTS COMING IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1201.15 DOWN  $1.75 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.00 DOWN 15 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1202.40

 

silver: $14.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

NOV

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV CONTRACT:0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil

Total number of notices filed so far for NOV:  204  for 20400 OZ  (0.6345 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR NOVEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

nil OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 1401 for 7.005,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $6452: down  $1

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6489  up 36 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY  A STRONG 2448 CONTRACTS FROM 217,290 UP TO  220,290  DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 10 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR NOV.  2348 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2348 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2348 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2348 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 11.74 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 10 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND  39.505 MILLION  OZ STANDING  IN SEPT.  2,520,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER. AND NOW SO FAR A HUGE 7,020,000 OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV: 

26.511 CONTRACTS (FOR 9 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 26.511 CONTRACTS) OR 132.555 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2954 CONTRACTS OR 14.72 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF NOV:  132.555 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 18.93% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,558.63    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2448 DESPITE THE 10 CENT DECLINE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2348 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED: 4798 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 2348 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 2448 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THUS  STRONG  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 10 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.05 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH  IN SEPTEMBER A FINAL MONSTROUS 39.05 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY, WITH HUGE DELIVERIES OF OVER 2 MILLION OZ IN OCTOBER (A NON DELIVERY MONTH) AND NOW  7.020 MILLION OZ IN NOVEMBER….... NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.059 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 151% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz AND NOW NOV AT 7.020 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS  SIZED 14,807 CONTRACTS UP TO 523.607 DESPITE THE  LOSS IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A DROP IN PRICE OF $4.65).THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A  GOOD SIZED 5,477 CONTRACTS:

 

 

NOVEMBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 5477 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 523,607. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED RISE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 20,284 CONTRACTS:  14,807 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5477 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 20,284 CONTRACTS OR 2,028,400 OZ = 63.09 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A  FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $4.65???.

 

 

 

 

FRIDAY, WE HAD 13908 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 69,956 CONTRACTS OR 6,995,600 OZ OR 217.59 TONNES (9 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7772 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 217.59 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 217.59/2550 x 100% TONNES =  8.53% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,427.53  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 14.807 DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICING ($4.65) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5477 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5477 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC RISE OF 20,284 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5477 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 14,807 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 63.09 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $4.65 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX????.

 

 

we had: 0 notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75 TODAY: / 

 

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

2 TRANSACTIONS:

 

1)A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF  6.77 TONNES

2.A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .84 TONNES

GOLD WILL NOW START TO RISE!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   761.16 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 761.16 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY

 

A SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

A WITHDRAWAL OF 328,000 OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY 2107 CONTRACTS from 217,842 UP TO 219,949  AND MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

i) 0 EFP’s for November… and

 

2348 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3282 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2107 CONTRACTS TO THE 2348 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG NET GAIN OF 4798 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE  GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 22.28 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., AND NOW 7.020 MILLION OZ STANDING IN NOVEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 10 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 2348 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 24.36 POINTS OR 0.93% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 159.69 POINTS OR 0.62% //The Nikkei closed DOWN UP 459.69 OR 2.06%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN  1.74%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9583 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil DOWN to 58.69 dollars per barrel for WTI and 68.88 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.9583AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9534: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING SLIGHTLY WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C/  CHINA

i)We have reported that China endured its first current account deficit in quite some time as foreign holders of Chinese bonds lightened up on their positions.  Why?  the spread between Chinese bonds and USA treasuries of the same duration has narrowed.  Investors are also worried about the trade war with the USA and as such they have decided to stay on the sidelines.  A current account deficit will lead to more USA dollars leaving China and this is the last thing that they need.

a must read…

( zerohedge)

 

ii)Need for evidence of a Chinese slowdown…Chinese credit growth is now the lowest on record

( zerohedge)

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Italy

Today is the final day for Italy’s resubmission of its budgetary deficit.  Expect fireworks.  The spread between the German bund and Italian 10 yr bond is 307 points.

( zerohedge)

b) Italy

This afternoon:

No change in the Italian budget proposal: euro slide

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)EU/USA

The Donald just cannot win:  Merkel defies him by backing Macron;s call for a European army

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL

Expect a major offensive from the Israelis are they try and demolish the militant Hamas

( zerohedge)

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Bellwether Caterpillar for global growth disappoints  as it sees the weakest retail sales growth since Sept 2017

( zerohedge)

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

Crude crashes as the Saudis abandon their plan to curb production

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Interesting:  The Bank of France wants to compete with London for gold trading.  The problem is that you need physical gold and much of their gold has been leased out
(courtesy Ambrose Evans Pritchard/The London Telegraph)

ii)For those of you who are coin collectors, this commentary from USA Gold is a good one(USAgold/GATA)

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

 

ii)Market data/

 

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

USA/GERMANY/CHINA

a)Auto stocks slide all over the place, However a report that there is going to be a USA car import probe sent these stocks reeling

( zerohedge)

b)This will not last long:  stocks rally on a report that top trade negotiator for China will meet Mnuchin in Washington

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Arizona’s big senatorial race has been won by Sinema over McSally

( zerohedge)

b)Looks like there will be indictments against Corsi, Trump Jr and Stone on perjury traps.  This is totally nuts..

( zerohedge)

c)CNN sues the Trump administration demanding a return of Acosta’s press pass

( zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 12,584 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 521,384 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($4.65 IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5477 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

NOV: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  5477 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5477 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  18,061 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5,477 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS 14.807 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 18,061 contracts OR 1,806,100 OZ OR 56.17 TONNES.

 

We are now in the non active contract month of November. For the November contract month, we have 4 notices standing so we LOST 9 contracts. We had 10 notice served YESTERDAY so we gained 1 contracts or an additional 100 oz of gold will stand for gold at the comex and these guys refused to morphed into London based forwards as well as negate receiving a fiat bonus for the trouble.

 

 

 

 

 

The next delivery month after November is the very big December contract month and here the OI FELL by 1259 contracts  to 327,376 contracts.  January saw a  RISE TO 3588 FOR A GAIN OF 25 CONTRACTS.  February gained 13,629 contracts to stand at 133,151 contracts.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR NIL OZ.

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI rose BY 2107 CONTRACTS FROM 217,842 UP TO 219,949 (AND CLOSER THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S STRONG  OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED WITH A 10 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED 2348 EFP CONTRACTS:  FOR NOVEMBER:  0 CONTRACTS AND FOR …

 

FOR DECEMBER: 2348 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2348.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 4455 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  2107 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2348 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   4455 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS VERY STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 10 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY???????

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of NOVEMBER and here we now have 3 notices  standing for a loss of 10 contacts.  We had 10 notices served upon yesterday so we gained 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will  stand for delivery as these longs refused to  morph into London based forwards as well as not accepting a fiat bonus for their efforts. 

 

 

 

 

After November, we have a December contract and here we LOST 2516 contracts DOWN to 141,011.  January saw a GAIN of 39 contracts up to 1050 contracts.   March, the next big delivery month after December saw a gain of 3276 contracts  up to 60,879.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the NOV, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 279,661 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  244,310  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  NOV/GOLD

NOV 13-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

3506.32

 

oz

Delaware

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notice(s)
 NIL OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
7 contracts
(700 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
204 notices
20400 OZ
0.6345 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

total gold entering dealer:  0 oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer;  0 oz

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 1 customer deposit
i) into Delaware:  3506.32 oz
total customer deposits 3506.32 oz
we had 0  adjustment..

FOR THE NOV 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (204) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (4 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 21,100 OZ OR 0.6562 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of NOV

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (204 x 100 oz)  + {4)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0x 100 oz )which equals 21100 oz standing OR 0.6562 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOVEMBER.

WE GAINED 1 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 100 WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE LONGS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS. QUEUE JUMPING IN GOLD DID RETURN AS THE DEALERS QUEUE JUMPING OBTAINING GOLD AS THEY TRY AND PUT OUT FIRES ELSEWHERE.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.2969 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 0.6562 TONNES STANDING FOR NOVEMBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  138,146.468 oz or   4.2969 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,023,872.749 oz 249.57 tonnes
 I BELIEVE THAT THIS IS THE LOWEST REGISTERED GOLD READING IN THE COMEX HISTORY..AS WELL AS THE LONGEST WE HAVE SEEN THE REGISTERED COLUMN AT 5 TONNES OR LESS.

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THERE IS NO GOLD AT THE COMEX..AS THE CROOKS SEEMS TO BE FORCING LONGS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF LONDON FORWARDS AND NOT TAKE POSSESSION OF ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX/

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

NOV INITIAL standings/SILVER

NOV 13, 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,202,773.844 oz
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3 contracts
(15,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 1401 contracts

(7,005,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 151.7 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.67% of all official comex silver. (151.7 million/293.9 million)

ii)Into  everybody else:  zero

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil oz

we had 1 withdrawal out of the customer account:
i) Out of CNT: 1,202,773.844 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 1,292,773.844 oz

 

we had 0 adjustment

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  87.937 million

total dealer + customer silver:  292.771  million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2018. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR NIL oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1401 x 5,000 oz = 7,005,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (3) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOV/2018 contract month: 1401(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV( 3) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 7,020,000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month.  This is a gigantic number of oz standing for an off delivery month. Somebody is after a large supply of physical silver. We GAINED 0 contracts or an additional NIL OZ will  stand at the comex as these longs refused to accept a London based forwards as well as negating the right to receive a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 95,238 CONTRACTS  … 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 89,588 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 89,588CONTRACTS EQUATES to 477 million OZ  63.9% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -5.03% (NOV 13/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -2.25% to NAV (NOV 13/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -5.03%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.07/TRADING 11.51/DISCOUNT 4.60

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.77 TONNES AT THE GLD/THAT SHOULD END THE WHACKING OF GOLD FOR NOW AND A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 84 TONNES: INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.016 TONNES

NOV 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $2.60″ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.70 TONNES

NOV 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.80 A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.70 TONES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.29 TONNES

NOV 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.06 TONNES

NOV 1/: 2 TRANSACTIONS:WITH GOLD UP $23.85,A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .80 TONNES OF GOLD TO PAY FOR FEES, INSURANCE AND STORAGE: INVENTORY AT THE GLD RESTS AT 754.06 TONNES THEN A DEPOSIT OF 6.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.82

OCT 31: WITH GOLD DOWN $11.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RE3STS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCTOBER 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCTOBER 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.15: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES. FROM ITS LOW POINT AT THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER THE GLD HAS ADDED.19.47 TONNES OF GOLD

OCT 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.88 TONNES

Oct 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.97 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.82

AND THEN: A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES SUCH THAT THE FINAL RESTING INVENTORY IS 747.88 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.70 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RSTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP BY ONLY $1.00/WE HAD ANOTHER 4.12 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.45/ANOTHER 5.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 744.64 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.35/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $35.20 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER GOLD INVENTORY GAIN OF 8.82 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17

OCT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.60 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NOV 13.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 761.16 tonnes

*IN LAST 495 TRADING DAYS: 173.99 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 395 TRADING DAYS: A NET 13.69 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS; A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 328,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/ A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.784 MILLION OZ

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ/

NOV 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 281,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ.

NOV 7: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 143,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.320 MILLION OZ/

NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.033 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.463 MILLION OZ.

OCT 31/WITH SILVER DOWN  18 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ/

OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ

OCTOBER 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS NO  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.879 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ.

OCTOBER 26/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ

OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ/

OCT 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.819 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 331.690 MILLION OZ.

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 470,000/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.509 MILLION OZ/

OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INV. RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.127  MILLION /RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ/

OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 15/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 12/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, A GOOD SIZE WITHDRAWAL OF 563,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ.

 

 

NOV 13/2018:

 

Inventory 324.456 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

HUGE JUMP IN LIBOR RATES TODAY./

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.37/ and libor 6 month duration 2.86

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .59

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.67%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.13

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.46

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Investors Set To Move Gold to Dublin Due To Brexit Risks

 

Brexit will likely impact the 300bn London gold market as investors move gold to other jurisdictions including Dublin

– UK and international investors can for the first-time own gold in a secure and liquid way in professionally managed, fully insured, institutional grade vaults in Ireland

– Secure gold investment in Ireland for first time as global risks intensify and Dublin to compete with London as a favoured gold storage location for the first time

(Dublin, Ireland) Irish, UK and international investors can for the first time invest in gold stored in secure, professionally managed, institutional grade vaults in Dublin, Ireland.

As financial and geopolitical risks including trade wars, the Trump Presidency and Brexit intensify, Ireland’s longest established gold broker, GoldCore have moved to enable Irish, UK and international investors to invest in and own gold stored in fully insured, specialist gold vaults in Dublin.

Brexit and other financial and geopolitical risks make asset diversification and owning assets in different jurisdictions more important than ever.

Institutional gold storage, Ireland’s first, is being managed by GoldCore in collaboration with Loomis International in a modern state of the art secure storage facility in south county Dublin, with easy access to the airport.

GoldCore, which was established in Dublin in 2003 and is now a global gold storage specialist, has long offered storage in some of the safest vaults, in the safer jurisdictions in the world.

“Dublin was soft launched to our clients in October and since then we have been very pleasantly surprised by the demand”, said GoldCore CEO Stephen Flood. “We expect demand in Dublin to exceed that of London sometime in 2019 as UK and Irish clients seek to spread their holdings across jurisdictions. Zurich is still the most sought after location, but Dublin has already surpassed Singapore and Hong Kong and may now usurp the second spot from London.”

“We considered operating our own vaults or going the safety deposit box option but there were unappreciated risks to clients and indeed a lack of liquidity for investors who could not easily and quickly sell their gold when they wished to” said the GoldCore CEO.

“Our new institutional gold storage offering will be offered to retail, HNW, family office, pension, broker and institutional investors” continued Flood, “and we believe it will be of interest not just to Irish and UK investors but also to U.S. investors, particularly Irish Americans, and indeed international investors looking for a secure location to store their gold.”

GoldCore make a market in gold bars (1 oz and 1 kilo) and popular legal tender gold bullion coins from the Royal Mint (CGT free gold coins for UK investors), the Royal Canadian Mint, the U.S. Mint, the Perth Mint and the Austrian Mint. Investors can buy or sell their gold online or on phone and do not have the security risk of having to take their gold out of a safe deposit box, deliver it and have it verified at specialist bullion vaults before being able to sell it.

Loomis International are one of the leading valuables storage providers in the world. Loomis provide secure transportation, management and storage of precious metals and are a member of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) whose membership is comprised of government mints, refiners, bullion dealers and major international banks.

“We are excited to collaborate with GoldCore on Secure Storage Ireland. We have worked with GoldCore since 2009 and we like the way they are always being innovative and putting the client first in terms of investing in gold in a secure way” said a senior representative of Loomis International.

The gold vaults managed by Loomis International meet the highest vault security

standards. They are members of the Irish Security Industry Authority (ISIA) and the Private Security Authority (PSA). The latter is the statutory body with responsibility for licensing and regulating the private security industry in Ireland. The vault providers have good relationships with key freight companies, airports, airlines and the Irish police force, An Garda Siochána.

Investors have shown renewed interest in gold as an investment in 2018 due to Brexit, Trump and increasing global economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Ends

About Secure Storage Ireland

Loomis International manage the vaults in conjunction with GoldCore. Loomis are one of the leading valuable storage providers in the world and provide secure transportation, management and storage of precious metals internationally.

Loomis are a member of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) whose membership is comprised of government mints, refiners, bullion dealers and major international banks. LBMA member vaults ensure the chain of integrity for gold bars.

GoldCore make a market in gold bars and coins fabricated and minted by LBMA approved government mints and refineries. The LBMA have strict rules in terms of purity and quality of gold bars as so their members. This reduces the risk of counterfeit coins and bars and helps GoldCore ensure that we deal in authentic gold coins and bars.

The vaults being managed by GoldCore in conjunction with Loomis International are of the highest vault security standards – greater even than Central Bank of Ireland security requirements. The facility is a member of the Irish Security Industry Authority (ISIA) and the Private Security Authority (PSA). The latter is the statutory body with responsibility for licensing and regulating the private security industry in Ireland.

The vault operators are experts in the movement of valuables such as cash and precious metals that require secure transportation internationally. They have relationships with key freight companies, airports, airlines, the Irish Justice Department and the Irish police force, An Garda Siochána.

GoldCore are making a market in gold bars (1 oz and 1 kilo) and popular legal tender gold bullion coins from the Royal Mint (CGT free gold coins for UK investors), the Royal Canadian Mint, the U.S. Mint, the Perth Mint and the Austrian Mint.

Liquidity is important for investors who can buy or sell their gold online or on the phone at any time. They do not have the hassle, stress and security risk of having to keep their keys safe, find their keys, take their gold out of a safe deposit box, in person take it out of the building in which their box is located, deliver it and have it verified (and potentially assayed) at specialist bullion vaults before being able to sell it.

-END-

 

NOV 13

ii) GATA stories
Interesting:  The Bank of France wants to compete with London for gold trading.  The problem is that you need physical gold and much of their gold has been leased out
(courtesy Ambrose Evans pritchard/The London Telegraph)

Banque de France wants Paris to compete with London for gold trade

 Section: 

Macron Tries to Take UK’s Gold Crown as Historic Rivalry Is Reborn

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Sunday, November 11, 2018

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/11/11/macron-takes-aim-london-…

Paris has vaulting ambitions to capture a share of the world gold trade from London, reviving its historic role as a top-tier power in the international bullion market.

The Banque de France has teamed up with JP Morgan to offer a full range of swaps, leases, and gold deposits for global central banks and sovereign wealth funds. Global reserve managers will be able to pledge bullion as collateral for deposits or for raising foreign currency on the Paris market.

… 

 

Sylvie Goulard, the Banque de France’s deputy governor, called it the spearhead of a sweeping shake-up of the French gold industry and left no doubt that one aim is to challenge the hegemonic position of the City of London in bullion dealing.

“While these gold investment services have until now only been offered from London, it recently became possible for the Banque de France to offer them also from Paris. As a resul, Paris could gradually re-emerge as a key marketplace for gold,” she wrote in the Alchemist, the in-house journal for the London Bullion Market Association:

http://gata.org/files/Alchemist-October-2018.pdf

While the French plans predate the Brexit referendum, they have taken on fresh salience as President Emmanuel Macron openly strives to peel away some of the Square Mile’s banking, wealth management, euro clearing, and insurance business.

Mme. Goulard said the BdF will act as a “principal” for the first time so that foreign central banks can generate a return from gold transactions without taking on counterparty risk, a crucial service in the ultra-cautious world of reserve managers.

One aim is to muscle in on the swap business as gold becomes eligible collateral under the Basel III framework for banks. The BdF is upgrading the quality of its gold reserves to ensure that they meet the LBMA benchmark standard for global trading. It is reported that the BdF is offering much lower storage costs than the Bank of England.

Paris was a hub of the world bullion nexus in the 19th century when the Napoleon 20-franc gold coin rivalled the British gold sovereign and the American Eagle.

The gold reserves of the French Third Republic were stored in the wine cellars of Hotel de Toulouse in Paris until the First World War. Deemed vulnerable, they were switched to the famous Souterraine beneath the Seine River in the 1920s, the deepest and biggest gold vault in the world.

Its underground cathedral of 720 pillars and Dantesque circles, with its 7-ton armored door, were immortalized by the interwar writer Stefan Zweig, who called it the “heart of our economic world, the epicentre of the invisible waves that stir markets, bourses, and banks.”

The London gold market — or “loco London” in trader parlance — is a hard nut for the French to crack. The Bundesbank has been repatriating gold holdings from vaults in Paris and New York to assuage Germany’s “bring-home-our-gold” movement but it has not yet withdrawn any bars from the vaults of the Bank of England.

Peter Hambro, a London gold veteran and president of the Russian miner Petropavlovsk, said the French held onto to most their gold when Gordon Brown sold half the Bank of England’s bars at the bottom of market for a quarter of current price.

France sold 580 tonnes under Nicolas Sarkozy — to great protest — but remains the world’s fifth biggest holder with 2,436 tonnes.

“The Banque de France has an excellent reputation as the manager of the French national reserves of gold and foreign exchange. It is in a select club of countries like China and Russia that still understand the value of gold as a store of value and a medium of exchange that is in itself no one else’s promise,” Hambro said.

Ross Norman from Sharps Pixley said there is a reason for this stickiness. London remains the most liquid gold market in the Western world by far, with trusted courts under the rule of law. “I haven’t heard of a ‘loco Paris’ gold trade for decades, so it is going to be tough for them,” he said.

The LBMA says the daily notional trade in London in 2016 was $234 billion, far ahead of the Comex in the United States at $28.9 billion or the combined Shanghai futures and gold exchanges at $9.4 billion.

However, the LBMA members provide deep liquidity to the market and this cannot easily be replicated. “Constructing anew such a system would be expensive and wearisome. For Paris to challenge London’s pre-eminence the BdF would need to encourage more than just JP Morgan to operate there with such a backup,” Norman said.

France’s 20th-century reverence for gold had unintended consequences. The country accumulated too much of the world’s bullion stock in the 1920s after it returned to the post-Versailles gold standard at an undervalued rate. This exerted a deflationary effect on the international system, deepening the Great Depression. At one point France amassed 5,000 tonnes.

Gold hoarding recoiled with a vengeance in the 1930s when France remained the last major power fixed to the gold standard, and therefore remained trapped in a contractionary vortex that delayed recovery and led to bitter left-right political conflict. It was a key reason why the country succumbed to defeatism in 1940.

London can boast an even more illustrious past than Paris as a bullion hub. It dates back to the gold shipping partnership of the East India Co. and Moses Mocatta in the late 17th century, later helped by the great gold enthusiast Sir Isaac Newton, master of the Royal Mint and part-time alchemist, when he could tear himself away from gravity theory.

The Bank of England established the London Good Delivery List in 1750 to set a unified standard for gold refiners. The quintet of N.M. Rothschild & Sons, Mocatta & Goldsmid, Pixley & Abell, Samuel Montagu & Co., and Sharps Wilkins ran the celebrated “London fix” for decades.

The anachronistic fix was reformed after the global financial crisis to make it more transparent. It is now electronic and partially regulated. Barclays was fined $26 million in 2014 for abuses linked to the old system

The Bank of England’s gold vaults hold 5,200 tonnes on behalf of global central banks and for the LBMA, with sealed lips on who the customers are. Some 7,500 tonnes in total are stored in London. JP Morgan, HSBC, and Brinks, among others, have their own vaults.

In the long run the real challenge for the London gold market almost certainly comes from Shanghai and Asian hubs. Some might say the sibling rivalry between the French and the British — over the most atavistic of all commodities — borders on national caricature.

end

For those of you who are coin collectors, this commentary from USA Gold is a good one

(USAgold/GATA)

Long-deposed monarchs’ money is still good

 Section: 

6:05p ET Monday, November 12, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Coin and bullion dealer USAGold’s November News & Views letter has been posted, with reports on central bank gold demand, record bullion bank short positions in the monetary metals, gold price predictions, and an insightful quotation from Confucius:

http://www.usagold.com/publications/NewsViewsNoVbr2018.html

But perhaps just as interesting is a new special report from USAGold about numismatic coins:

http://www.usagold.com/publications/NewsViewsNoV-18SpecRpt.html

Over the years you may have heard a lot of sneering about numismatic coins, and surely they have generated a lot of hype, if not quite as much hype as has been generated by gold and silver mining shares.

… 

even so, numismatic coins may have a few advantages.

First, as they were back in the 1930s, they likely would be exempted from another gold confiscation in the United States and from capital controls.

For the U.S. government’s official position on gold confiscation, visit the confiscation section of GATA’s internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/22

Second, numismatic coins — coins with world history to them — can be so interesting. They can teach.

At least the typical numismatic coin is a reminder that while kings, queens, emperors, empresses, and crowned (and swelled) heads may be long gone, some of them even having been decapitated or shot by their own people, their money is still good because it had intrinsic value and was without counterparty risk.

Numismatic coins also can teach about national sovereignty, politics, and language.

And third, in nearly all cases that money is not only still good but has increased in value in real terms.

So enjoy the report even if you’re not in the market today for anything but hamburger.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org


iii) Other Physical stories

 

________________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.9583/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER NOW ON //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9534   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 24.36 POINTS OR 0.93%

. HANG SANG CLOSED UP 159.69 POINTS OR 0.62%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN  459.36POINTS OR 2.06%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 97.42/Euro FALLS TO 1.1249

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.11/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 114.02/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.69 and Brent: 68.88

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE:  UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.40%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 3.47% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.61%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 3.07: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.45

3k Gold at $1200.60 silver at:14.07   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 24/100 in roubles/dollar) 67.62

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 68 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 114.02DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0100 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1362 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.40%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.17% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.38%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.4820

Global Markets Rebound On Renewed Trade Hopes,

Oil Slides For Record 12th Day

After Monday’s vicious Veteran’s Day selloff, which took place with the cash bond market closed, world markets have regained their footing as European stocks and S&P 500 futures are higher, recovering some of the previous session’s losses on renewed hopes (how many times have we heard this) for progress in the U.S.-China trade dispute following a report that China’s vice premier Liu He will meet with Steven Mnuchin in Washington, even as Asian shares dropped overall, led by Japan’s 2.1% slide as tech stocks were hit on iPhone demand fears.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index rose for the first time in three days, with telecoms leading the way after Vodafone announced better than expected quarterly results, although the index was off its earlier highs. Contracts on the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 were all firmer, and after sliding as low as 2,720 on Monday, S&P futures were 0.6% higher.

Focusing on Europe, today is the day the Italians will resubmit their budget after the EC requested a new fiscal plan. No material changes are expected. According to Deutsche Bank, the commission will continue to adopt a tough stance on Italy. It seems inevitable they will recommend an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) in the next few weeks. So for now any grand bargain is far away.

Earlier, the Shanghai Comp. (+0.9%) and Hang Seng (+0.6%) both opened lower although gradually recovered amid hopes for an improvement in US-China trade relations amid reports that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He spoke by phone on Friday about a deal that could ease trade tensions and with some US officials reportedly expecting China to make a trade offer ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting.

Other Asian indexes fared less well, and slid with Apple suppliers under pressure after the iPhone maker fell on signs of a deteriorating sales outlook. Meanwhile, underwhelming Chinese new loan data, ongoing Brexit concerns and Italian jitters have tempered enthusiasm. Germany’s DAX outperforms peers this morning, while Italy’s FTSE MIB traded mixed ahead of today’s budget proposal deadline while local Italian banks are managing small gains.

Even as risk assets enjoyed a modest rebound, the commodity rout continued as WTI fell for a twelfth day, the longest losing streak on record after Trump criticized top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia’s plan to cut output, and was headed for its lowest close of 2018.

Treasuries climbed while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell from an 18-month high as traders took profit on the greenback.  The yen reversed to a loss as risk appetite slowly grew. The Britain’s pound pared some losses from the past three days after Prime Minister Theresa May said talks with the European Union were in the “endgame” and data showing U.K. wage growth accelerated.

Elsewhere, the euro recovered from its weakest against the dollar since June 2017, with Italy due to resubmit its budget. The country’s bonds pared some losses after a debt auction. Emerging market equities and currencies were steady.

In a curious development overnight, major state-owned Chinese banks were seen selling dollars at around 6.97 per dollar in the onshore spot foreign exchange market in early trade on Tuesday, traders told newswires in the latest attempt by Beijing to arrest sharp losses in the local currency. The onshore spot market opened at 6.9681 per dollar, weakening to a low of 6.9703 at one point in early deals. “Big banks were selling (dollars) to defend the yuan,” said one of the traders. Traders suspect the authorities are keen to prevent the yuan from weakening too sharply before U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart President Xi Jinping’s meeting later this month.

So is the selling over for now? With trade worries hanging over markets for months and clouding the economic outlook, the Liu He came at an appropriate time, while comments from Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in Singapore Tuesday hinted at a more optimistic outlook; even so sentiment remains fragile as the Fed prepares to hike rates in just over a month.

“We always talk about that proverbial wall of worry and that wall right now is pretty high,” David Kudla, chief executive officer of Mainstay Capital Management, said on Bloomberg TV. “We have the issues in China with the growth concerns there, we have the issues in Europe with the battle between Italy and the EU, the U.K. getting ready for Brexit. There is some guidance lower on earnings, and a Federal Reserve that is going to raise rates.”

In other news, Bloomberg reported that the US Commerce Department submitted a draft recommendation on potential auto tariffs to the White House which are undergoing interagency review and are sign of US administration’s increasing frustration at EU and Japan over lack of progress on auto trade issues, while the Section 232 recommendations will be discussed at White House trade meeting on Tuesday.

In the latest Brexit news, PM May said Brexit talks are now reaching their “endgame” and that both sides working hard to reach an agreement but added that significant issues still remain and that the government will not accept a deal at any cost. Furthermore, there were reports that UK PM May had rejected the latest draft Brexit deal with the EU as it didn’t provide a clear exit from the customs union if the EU began acting in bad faith in discussions regarding a future trade agreement.

Expected data include NFIB Small Business Optimism and monthly budget statement. Home Depot and Tyson are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2,737.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 364.03
  • MXAP down 1% to 150.18
  • MXAPJ down 0.2% to 480.47
  • Nikkei down 2.1% to 21,810.52
  • Topix down 2% to 1,638.45
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 25,792.87
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 2,654.88
  • Sensex up 0.8% to 35,083.73
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.8% to 5,834.23
  • Kospi down 0.4% to 2,071.23
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 0.395%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1239
  • Brent Futures down 1.3% to $69.21/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 3.3 bps to 3.066%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 1.607%
  • Brent futures down 2.2% to $68.57/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,197.54
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 97.63

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He have resumed talks on trade, and a potential Washington visit by Liu is being considered before the nations’ top leaders meet later this month
  • Goldman Sachs downward slide on a multibillion-dollar Malaysian fraud culminated Monday with Goldman’s shares having their biggest drop since 2011
  • President Donald Trump’s hardening line on immigration sets him on a collision course with House Democrats that is likely to shape the next presidential campaign.
  • Brexit negotiators are working through the night in an effort to reach a deal, but the final stage of the talks is proving “immensely difficult,” U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May said
  • Italy’s government may offer the European Commission a minor concession when it resubmits its budget after an unprecedented rejection last month
  • Major suppliers to Apple Inc.’s iPhone fell Tuesday as investors fretted that one of the most important product lines in the technology sector was seeing weak demand

Major Asian equity markets mostly followed suit to the sell-off on Wall Street where tech led the declines after Apple shares dropped 5% following an outlook cut by supplier Lumentum Holdings and with energy names hit again after oil posted an 11th consecutive decline. ASX 200 (-1.8%) and Nikkei 225 (-2.1%) weakened from the open with the tech sector the underperformer in the region as another Apple supplier Japan Display reported a loss for H1 and downgraded its outlook. Furthermore, Japanese exporters suffered from recent flows into the JPY and large automakers were pressured after the US Commerce Department submitted a draft recommendation on potential auto tariffs to the White House. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (+0.9%) and Hang Seng (+0.6%) both opened lower although gradually recovered amid hopes for an improvement in US-China trade relations amid reports that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He spoke by phone on Friday about a deal that could ease trade tensions and with some US officials reportedly expecting China to make a trade offer ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. Finally, 10yr JGBs were initially supported as the broad risk averse tone spurred a flight to safety, but then failed to hold on to the marginal gains as prices mirrored a pullback in T-notes despite stronger 30yr auction results.

Top Asian News

  • Semen Indonesia Buys LafargeHolcim Arm in $1.75 Billion Deal
  • MUFG Chief Warns on Outlook Even After Raising Profit Target
  • Hong Kong’s World-Beating IPO Market Starts to Show Cracks
  • China’s Credit Growth Slumped in October as Debt Sales Slowed

All major European indices are in the green, with the DAX (+0.6%) out in front, led by the likes of Lufthansa (+2.4%) who are benefiting from lower oil prices and Bayer (+0.3%) who presented an increase in earnings and confirmed their outlook. FTSE MIB (-0.3%) is lagging its peers weighed on by Telecom Italia (-1.4%) who removed their CEO to the dismay of Vivendi (23.9% shareholder). Italian financial names are also softer ahead of today’s budget re-submission deadline. Sectors are predominantly higher with outperformance in Telecoms post-earnings from Vodafone (+9.0%). Energy names lag, in-fitting with price action in the complex. Regarding individual equities, BTG (+9.2%) are leading the Euro Stoxx 600 after presenting an increase in half year revenue and operating profit. Elior Group (+8.0%) are off best levels but remain supported by news that they have hired advisors to initiate the sale of their catering business. Babcock (-2.5%) are under scrutiny from the Ministry of Defence over their handling of a contract relating to the UK’s Trident Submarines.

Top European News

  • U.K. Wages Rise Most Since 2008 Amid Tight Labor Market
  • Nyrstar Plunges on Growing Speculation of Debt Restructuring
  • Italy’s Carige Thrown $360 Million Lifeline by Other Banks

In FX, An almost clear and defining line between the ‘so called’ risk or high beta/yield currencies vs safer-havens, as US-China trade tensions ease somewhat amidst reports of constructive discussions between key officials, while the YUAN also pares some losses with the aid of intervention via local banks overnight (said to have been defending 6.9700 vs the Usd). Hence, the DXY and broad Dollar are off Monday’s peaks, with the latter only maintaining gains/positive momentum vs the JPY above 114.00 and CHF (to a lesser degree) over 1.0100. However, the index remains underpinned around the 97.500 mark and still poised to build on yesterday’s new ytd high at 97.704 given high levels of ongoing uncertainty and global risks, with only one major chart hurdle seen ahead of 98.000 (97.871 Fib resistance). NZD/AUD – Outperforming on the aforementioned US-China ‘understanding’, with the Kiwi staying within striking distance of 0.6750 and the latter not far from 0.7200, but perhaps capped by mega option expiry interest at the strike (1.6 bn), while still feeling the adverse effects of bearish cross-positioning as Aud/Nzd inches further below 1.0700. GBP/EUR/CAD – All holding up relatively well, or at least consolidating off worst levels, with the Pound retesting 1.2900 vs the Greenback and 0.8700 vs the single currency on hopes if not high expectations of a Brexit breakthrough in time before tomorrow’s deadline. Note, some independent support from Sterling via firm UK wage data, but limited. The Eur is just keeping its head above 1.1200 vs the Usd awaiting Italy’s budget resubmission to the EU that is widely expected to reveal a concession or compromise, but no white flag. Option barriers at the big figure are underpinning the headline pair, though by the same token 1 bn expiry interest at 1.1250 are also keeping upside attempts in check. Looking at the Loonie, only fleeting intraday recoveries in oil prices are keeping the commodity unit pressured and it is struggling to stem losses beyond 1.3250.

In commodities, WTI (-2.2%) and Brent (-2.1%) are in the red after a failed intervention by US President Trump who tweeted that oil prices should be lower, and he hopes Saudi and OPEC do not cut oil production. Note, the monthly OPEC report to be published today at 1115GMT. Gold (+0.1%) is marginally up after reaching 16-month highs yesterday. Of note, traders are gathering in Shanghai  for Asia Copper Week, as copper prices have fallen by approximately 17% this year, on track for their worst year since 2015. Intra-day, copper and other metals have moved higher following reports that Liu He, China’s top trade negotiator, may visit Washington in preparation for Trump Xi talks. OPEC monthly report: OPEC crude production rose 127k bpd in October to average 32.9mln bpd, according to secondary sources. Crude oil output increased mostly in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Angola, while production declined in IR Iran, Venezuela, Kuwait and Nigeria. In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.5mln bpd, a downward revision of 40k bpd from last month’s projection. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.29mln bpd, a minor downward adjustment of 70k bpd from the previous month’s assessment.

In terms of the day ahead, the November ZEW survey in Germany follows before we get the October NFIB small business optimism reading in the US and the October monthly budget statement. Away from that it’s a busy day at the ECB with Praet and Lautenschlaeger speaking this morning, before de Guindos speaks this evening. The Fed’s Kashkari, Brainard and Harker are also due to speak at various stages today. Today also marks the deadline set by the EU for Italy to revise its budget, so expect to see headlines around this.

US Event Calendar

  • 6am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 108, prior 107.9
  • 10am: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Conference on Immigration
  • 10am: Fed’s Brainard Speaks on AI and the New Financial Landscape
  • 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $100.0b deficit, prior $63.2b deficit
  • 2:20pm: Fed’s Harker Speaks at Fintech Conference

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

In this morning’s FT, DB’s Head of Research and Chief Economist David Folkerts-Landau has penned a hard hitting op-ed on Italy. The crux of the argument is that Europe must cut a grand bargain with Italy and that another costly sovereign debt crisis is inevitable unless the confrontational approach of the EC gives way to greater co-operation. Italy has actually been a frugal member of the single currency with a cumulative primary surplus every year outside of the GFC. However, these surpluses have simply helped finance the interest on the legacy debt and debt/GDP has still climbed. Meanwhile, the associated spending cuts and austerity required to run a primary surplus have lowered the standard of living for the population and led us to the political situation we find ourselves at today.

To cut a long story short the grand bargain is in effect the ESM firepower helping to substantially lower Italy’s funding costs, allow for more public expenditure (e.g. infrastructure) in return for Italy undergoing structural reforms. A copy of the unabridged op-ed can be found here or in today’s FT.

Interestingly, today is the day the Italians will resubmit their budget after the EC requested a new fiscal plan. We expect no material changes. Our economists yesterday published a piece ( link ) looking at the next steps and conclude that, as contagion has been limited for now, the commission will continue to adopt a tough stance on Italy. It seems inevitable they will recommend  an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) in the next few weeks. So for now we’re far away from the grand bargain our Chief Economist thinks will eventually be needed.

As well as Italy it feels like there’s a lot to report today, which is not usually the case after a US holiday. Indeed those handful of Monday US holidays each year are usually an excuse for us to have an extra 10-15 minutes lie in the morning safe in the knowledge that not much will have happened the day before. However, the alarm clock was actually set a bit earlier this morning after a difficult start to the week, including a further slump for the once biggest company in the world, and a continuation of the recent under-performance in many of the current largest companies in the world within the tech sector.

To recap, Veteran’s Day thin equity trading saw the NASDAQ (-2.78%) and NYSE FANG (-4.11%) indices leading the declines followed closely by the S&P 500 (-1.97%), DOW (-2.32%) and Russell 2000 (-1.98%). Amazingly that is the 9th time this year the big 3 bourses (NASDAQ, S&P 500 and DOW) have fallen at least -1.90% on the same day. It didn’t happen in 2017, and only happened 11 times in 2015 and 2016 combined. The VIX also climbed just over 3pts yesterday to edge back above 20. The tech sector was clearly at the heart of yesterday’s selloff with a -5.04% decline for Apple, sparked by big falls for the company’s suppliers on the back of demand concerns. Apple’s share price is now back below $200 after spending 72 consecutive trading days above that level.

That move for Apple resulted in the small matter of $49bn of value being wiped from the company. By comparison General Electric lost just over $5bn yesterday but it was arguably the bigger headline grabber. Indeed the shares slumped -6.88% (-10.02% at the lows) after the company’s CEO, in an interview with CNBC yesterday, failed to reassure market fears about a weakening financial position. The CEO suggested that the company will now urgently sell assets to address leverage. Shares hit levels first seen in 1995 yesterday and have only been lower since, very briefly, during the financial crisis.

For a bit of perspective, the market cap of GE now is $69.5bn and it’s the 80th largest company in the S&P 500. Go back to August 2003 and it was the largest company in the index (and regularly the world between 1993-2005) at a market cap of $296bn, with $12bn of daylight to Microsoft in second place. The tech giant has since grown to be a $826bn company well over 10 times the size. GE’s market cap actually peaked in August 2000 at $594bn before tumbling first in the tech crash and then the GFC.

In credit GE is a top 15 issuer in both the US and EU indices. It’s recently been downgraded into the BBB bucket but as recently as September was trading 20bps inside BBB- bonds. However they crossed over at the end of that month and now trade up to 50bps wide to the average of the weakest notch of IG. This problem for GE has come at an interesting time as much discussion in recent months has been about BBBs as a % of the size of the HY market. According to Nick Burns in my team, post the downgrades of the automakers in 2005, US BBBs fell to 99% of the size of the HY market from a peak of 170% in 2001.

Since 2005, BBBs have been steadily rising as a percentage of HY climbing back above the previous peak in 2014 (175%) before extending that growth to a current level of 274%. It’s more difficult to compare EU BBBs to HY given the infancy of the EUR HY market pre-2004. But from a low of 219% BBBs have grown to 340% of EUR HY. So large BBB companies with a deteriorating credit story are prone to additional widening pressure as investors fear the risks of an eventual downgrade to HY and a swamping of paper into that market. This isn’t helping GE at the moment and may be a dress rehearsal for what happens for weaker and large BBB issuers in the next recession.

Brexit headlines were slightly overshadowed but make no mistake, we are getting to the point when binary outcomes are coming closer. Up until the end of last week I thought we’d get a deal agreed this week and then Parliament would be 50/50 as to whether they’d vote in favour of it. However, since last Friday if you’ve read all the relevant UK press articles its been hard to find much enthusiasm for the expected deal from anyone on any side of the debate within Parliament. At this stage I’m not sure I know what plan B is? Will this be a repeat of TARP back in 2008 and Parliament requires two goes at it? Problem with this is that it’s not clear that the EU is going to offer anything different on a second run at it. In terms of trading, the pound originally pared losses in the early afternoon yesterday as the EU’s Barnier confirmed yesterday that although an agreement had still not been reached the main elements of an exit treaty are ready to present to the UK cabinet according to the FT. Sterling gave up the Barnier related gains on the below Buzzfeed news and fell -0.93% on the day.

This news was that Brexit secretary Raab is leading some cabinet ministers towards telling Mrs May that the EU offer on the table is unacceptable. Mrs May herself last night said talks were “in the endgame”. The general view is that unless we have a deal by the end of tomorrow, the November EU summit is unlikely. As we know a deal is pretty much on the table however the issue  remains whether or not the UK can run with it first based on whether the cabinet will accept it and secondly whether Parliament can. At the moment we are struggling to get past the first hurdle let alone the second. There was supposed to be a cabinet meeting on Brexit today but its status has been played down.

This morning in Asia, markets outside of China/HK are weak but off the lows of the session. The Nikkei (-2.19%), and Kospi (-0.46%) are all down along with most Asian markets but after opening equally weak the Shanghai Comp (+0.86%) and Hang Seng (+0.33%) are rallying hard from the lows. More positive trade noises from US VP Pence and Chinese officials in the last hour have helped. Sentiment didn’t start well though as last night Bloomberg reported that the White House is circulating a draft report by the US Commerce Department over whether to impose tariffs on automobile imports to protect national security while adding that  the President Trump is scheduled to meet with senior members of his trade team today to discuss how to proceed on potential tariffs.

Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (+0.44%) are pointing towards a more positive start and as an interesting aside the BoJ’s asset holding are now (JPY 553.6 tn) greater than Japan’s nominal GDP (JPY 552.8tn as of end June). To put this in perspective the Fed’s assets are about 20% of US GDP, while the ECB’s holdings are equal to around 40% of the euro-zone economy.

This US and Asian weakness follows on from earlier yesterday where Europe also struggled. The STOXX 600 ended the day down -1.01% with the tech sector sinking -3.66%. The DAX (-1.77%) fell even more and it’s amazing that it’s ahead of the FTSE MIB for one of the biggest total return declines in Europe this year of the main bourses (-12.33% vs. -10.37% respectively). Remarkable given that they are probably at the extreme ends economically within Europe. Even oil couldn’t eke out a gain after being up after Asia closed post the Saudi production cut story from Sunday. President Trump’s tweet criticising Saudi Arabia’s planned production cut weighed on prices late in the US session. By the close a near -3% fall had added to what is now an 11-day successive slump, extending the record run we discussed yesterday with data back to 1983. Elsewhere bond markets in Europe (Treasuries were closed for Veterans Day) were quiet with Bunds -0.9bps lower in yield and BTPs +3.5bps higher.

In terms of the day ahead, shortly after this hits your emails we’ll get the final October CPI revisions in Germany. Soon after that we’ll get the preliminary Q3 wages data in France before the focus turns to here in the UK with the September and October employment stats. The November ZEW survey in Germany follows before we get the October NFIB small business optimism reading in the US and the October monthly budget statement. Away from that it’s a busy day at the ECB with Praet and Lautenschlaeger speaking this morning, before de Guindos speaks this evening. The Fed’s Kashkari, Brainard and Harker are also due to speak at various stages today. As noted above, today also marks the deadline set by the EU for Italy to revise its budget, so expect to see headlines around this.

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 24.36 POINTS OR 0.93% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 159.69 POINTS OR 0.62% //The Nikkei closed DOWN UP 459.69 OR 2.06%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN  1.74%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9583 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil DOWN to 58.69 dollars per barrel for WTI and 68.88 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.9583AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9534: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING SLIGHTLY WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 
END

3 C CHINA

We have reported that China endured its first current account deficit in quite some time as foreign holders of Chinese bonds lightened up on their positions.  Why?  the spread between Chinese bonds and USA treasuries of the same duration has narrowed.  Investors are also worried about the trade war with the USA and as such they have decided to stay on the sidelines.  A current account deficit will lead to more USA dollars leaving China and this is the last thing that they need.

a must read…

(courtesy zerohedge)

Foreign Investors Reduce Chinese Bond Holdings For The First Time Since Feb 2017: Why This Matters

Three months ago, something unprecedented happened to China’s economy: for the first time since 1998, China reported a current account deficit for the first half of the year.

While we expounded on the full implications previously, they could be summarized as follows: greater reliance on foreign funding, a more open capital account, a weaker CNY and deeper and less manipulated capital markets.

Of the four, the increasing reliance on outside capital was likely the most important as it implied that China’s economic well-being would be increasingly left to the generosity of foreigners, much the same way foreigners have for decades funded America’s generous way of life.

Only last month something troubling happened on China’s road to foreign reliance: global investor enthusiasm for Chinese corporate bonds collapsed.  Whether due to China’s weaker currency, or the collapsing premium of Chinese over U.S. interest rates, foreign holdings of yuan-denominated, domestically traded bonds in China rose by just 250 million yuan ($35.9 million), or 0.02%, to 1.44 trillion yuan in October, according to the WSJ citing data provider Wind. As shown in the chart below, the rate of growth has been decelerating since June, when it peaked at 8.9% month on month, the fastest in 21 months.

Even more troubling, after adjusting for valuation effects, China Bond calculated that foreign investors actually reduced their holdings of Chinese bonds. While this reduction was modest, JPMorgan noted that it nonetheless represents the first outflow since February 2017, highlighting the risk of continued currency depreciation exacerbating the capital outflow picture.

Meanwhile, as Bank of America notes, China’s weakening economy has led Chinese bond prices to rally sharply in the past year, pushing yields down, even as rising interest rates send U.S. bonds in the other direction. That means Chinese sovereign debt now offers a much thinner premium over U.S. Treasurys. Yields on benchmark 10-year Chinese securities fell to 0.24 percentage point above Treasurys late last week, the narrowest gap since July 2010.

It’s not just the collapsing yield differential that confirms the economic slowdown and is a threat to Chinese capital inflows: in addition to the near contracting Chinese PMI, as the chart below shows the Korean KOSPI, Macau-exposed WYNN,  Caterpillar and Chinese property giant China Evergrande, have all slumped this year.

So why does Chinese bond flows matters? As the WSJ explains, foreign institutions, such as central banks and pension funds, own just 1.7% of China’s overall $12 trillion bond market, the world’s third largest behind the U.S. and Japan. Still, they have already become influential players in the narrower field for central government debt, where they own 8.1% of what is a roughly $2 trillion market.

Still, a reversal in bond flows is the last thing China’s economy, whose current account surplus is now virtually non-existent, can afford. According to Peter Ru, Shanghai-based chief investment officer of China fixed income at Neuberger Berman, foreign investors slowed their purchases of Chinese bonds mostly because of the yuan’s fast depreciation: “Given the uncertainties over the trade war, nobody can be sure how much more the yuan may weaken.”

He is right: foreign investors have decided to sit on the sidelines as they await potential initiatives from Beijing, such as further monetary easing, said Jason Pang, Hong Kong-based China government bond portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. And yet, such easing would result in even further depreciation, making the choice whether to resume buying Chinese bonds a complex one: on one hand, one would need to hedge bond exposure (which is virtually impossible as anyone who has shorted the offshore Yuan knows the central bank’s tendency to periodically “murder” speculators), and absent that there would have to be an expectation of currency stability, something which the central bank increasingly is unable to provide; as such not even a most generous stimulus can offset the risks of rapid currency devaluation, ensuring that foreign investors will stay on the sidelines for the foreseeable future.

There is one alternative: Pang said he sees Chinese government bonds as a “trade war hedge.” Their prices have rallied as Beijing has taken measures such as loosening lending conditions to offset the impact of worsening trade frictions, he said. “If you believe that the trade war will escalate, there’s all the more reason that you should own some Chinese government bonds,” Pang added.

Of course, bond prices may simply be rallying because investors expect a sharp, disinflationary slowdown in the economy; and should China itself fall into a deflationary liquidity trap, then all bets are truly off and the last thing bond investors will want to do is allocate capital to a country which is about to have a debt crisis during deflation.

In any case, the PBOC now finds itself trapped, on one hand facing the end of China’s current account days, and on the other facing the danger that Beijing’s increasingly ad hoc response to the US trade war which includes continue yuan devaluation, will scar foreign bond investors, leaving Beijing with no source of outside capital. And since the only offset to these two developments would be a surge in domestic saving – and collapse in domestic Chinese consumption – the result for China should foreign investors indeed pull their money, would be nothing short of a recession or worse.

END

Need for evidence of a Chinese slowdown…Chinese credit growth is now the lowest on record

(courtesy zerohedge)

In Latest Shock To Beijing, Chinese Credit Growth Is Lowest On Record

In recent months, China has been desperate to inject more credit into its financial system and failing that, to at least give the impression it is doing that. Recall that last month the PBoC adjusted its definition of aggregate financing (or Total Social Financing) by including net financing through local government special bond issuance, which in turn took place just two months after it added asset-backed securities (ABS) and non-performing loan write-offs into this measure.

Why did China revise its TSF yet again? Simple: the purpose was to “pump up” the credit numbers and telegraph to the market and consumers that Chinese credit is growing faster, and thus represent a stronger economy, than it is in reality. And indeed, the September jump in TSF was driven mainly by a faster local government bond issuance, while based on the previous definition, it fell to a weaker-than-expected RMB1,467bn from RMB1,518bn and below the RMB1,554 consensus, weighed upon by continued contraction of shadow banking financing and a decline in net corporate bond financing.

Fast forward to today when overnight the PBOC reported its latest money and credit data, and even under the latest and broadest definition, October money and credit data surprised sharply on the downside, mainly due to the ripple effects of the initially over-zealous deleveraging programme and despite pressure by regulators on banks to help keep cash-starved companies afloat, pointing to further weakening in the economy in coming months.

And while October is typically a slow month for Chinese credit, growth in key gauges such as total social financing and money supply fell to record lows, reinforcing views that policymakers will need to step up efforts to revive flagging investment.

According to the PBOC, new RMB loans dropped in half to RMB697bn in October from RMB1,380bn in September, with new loans to the corporate sector tumbling to RMB150bn from RMB677bn in September, in which new medium- to long-term loans eased to RMB143bn from RMB380bn, and new short-term loans fell to -RMB113bn from an increase of RMB110bn. New loans to the household sector also eased, to RMB564bn from RMB754bn in September, and its long-term loan component was down to RMB373bn from RMB431bn. New loans to non-bank financial institutions were -RMB27bn from  RMB60bn in September.

Household loans accounted for 80.9% of total new loans in October, versus 54.7% in the preceding month.

One reason for the sharp drop in new loan growth: Chinese banks have become wary of a fresh spike in bad loans after years of pressure from regulators to reduce riskier lending. Last Friday, Chinese bank shares tumbled on fears they will be saddled with more non-performing loans following an unprecedented regulatory directive to allocate one-third of new loans to private companies.

In its financial stability report earlier this month, the central bank highlighted the sharp rise in household debt in recent years, noting it needed to be monitored, which is bizarre coming just as Beijing is hoping to flood the system with even more cheap credit. Analysts have warned the jump could undermine Beijing’s efforts to spur consumer spending.

Outstanding short-term consumer loans rose 37.9 on-year in 2017 and the total household debt to GDP ratio was at 49 percent at the end of last year, the central bank said in the report.

Meanwhile, the far broader aggregate financing index tumbled to RMB729BN from RMB2,168BN in September…

… mainly weighed on by a sharp fall in local government special bond (LGSB) financing (RMB87bn from RMB739bn in September) and continued shadow banking shrinkage.

In fact, China’s outstanding total social financing (TSF) slowed to 10.2 percent from a year earlier, another all-time low  suggesting the increased lending barely compensates for shrinking “shadow” loans.

The amount of newly increased broad TSF (non seasonally adjusted) was the lowest since October 2014.

As noted above, headline aggregate financing slumped to RMB729bn in October (Consensus: RMB1,300bn) from RMB2,168bn in September. Growth in outstanding aggregate financing slowed further by 0.4% points (pp) to 10.2% Y/Y in October. If central and local government bond financing is included, growth in the aggregate financing measure fell to 10.7% Y/Y to 11.2%.

By category, new entrusted loans and trust loans combined were -RMB222bn in October from -RMB234bn in September, indicating that shadow banking activity continued to contract. Net corporate bond financing rose to RMB138bn from RMB49bn in September, but was still some way off the average October level in 2015-17 of RMB233bn. Net equity financing remained sluggish, at RMB18bn from RMB27bn in September (average October level: RMB62bn).

One key reason for the decline was that local governments had maxed out their bond quotas after a rush of debt issuance in the third quarter, Capital Economics said. After a lengthy clampdown, Beijing has been pushing local governments to spend on infrastructure projects again as part of its growth boosting measures. China will release investment data on Wednesday along with industrial output and retail sales.

Meanwhile, looking at traditional outstanding loan growth eased to 13.1% y-o-y from 13.2% in September (Figure 1), while money supply growth was also markedly weak, in further evidence that companies are reluctant to make fresh investments as U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods add to uncertainties about the demand outlook at home. Broad M2 money supply grew 8.0 percent in October from a year earlier – a record low, and far below the consensus estimates of 8.4%, edging up from September. 

Including central and local government bond issuance, growth of the augmented aggregate financing measure dropped to 10.7% y-o-y in October from 11.2% in September. Both posted the lowest growth on record.

The weaker trend also suggested overall credit conditions in China tightened last month despite recent easing in monetary policy,including moves by the central bank to bring down market interest rates and four cuts in banks’ reserve requirements so far this year.  Indeed, one likely explanation for the shockingly poor new credit numbers is that according to the PBoC’s Q3 monetary policy report last week, weighted average lending rates for general loans and mortgage loans rose to 6.19% pa and 5.72% in Q3, respectively, from 6.08% and 5.60% in Q2, although those for corporate bill financing fell. Rising financing costs signal further downside pressures on investment and property sales, and as a result, Nomura believes that the economy has not yet bottomed.

In its China credit growth commentary, Bloomberg said that the “shockingly” weak new loans number, which was worse than any surveyed economist expected, “explains why policy makers have projected a sense of urgency lately to support growth. It suggests that the credit market is clogged as the government cracks down on shadow banking while lending to private firms has more or less frozen.

Looking ahead, headwinds to growth remain, especially from weakening domestic demand, rising credit defaults, the cooling property market and escalating China-US trade tensions. Although headline activity numbers may have held relatively well in recent months (benefiting from a front-loading of exports and a significant easing of the anti-pollution campaign this winter), Nomura expects a more visible growth slowdown starting from the spring next year.

“With credit growth still cooling, economic activity looks set to come under further pressure in the coming months,” Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.  “We expect officials to step up policy easing in response, including benchmark lending rate cuts and off-budget fiscal stimulus.”

Most analysts, however, don’t expect policymakers to cut benchmark rates any time soon, but could step up tax cuts and infrastructure spending to put a floor under the slowing economy.

According to Nomura, further policy easing/stimulus measures that Beijing could pursue include:

  • More direct liquidity injections via RRR cuts, the medium-term lending facility (MLF) and open market operations;
  • Increasing commercial bank loan quotas;
  • More bond issuance and faster fiscal spending, especially on infrastructure investment;
  • Less restrictions on quasi-fiscal measures for infrastructure investment (e.g., public-private partnership projects and policy bank lending);
  • Cutting VAT, corporate income tax and social security tax to boost corporate investment and production; and
  • Implicitly allowing some major Chinese cities to ease property price controls and scrap other measures that distort the property market.

“October credit data is weaker than expected,” said Merchants Securities analyst Luo Yunfeng. However, Luo believes the room for further policy easing is limited as Beijing remains concerned about controlling debt and financial risks, which were fuelled by past spending binges.

The question, of course, is what happens if China’s credit remains clogged up: that could be a major problem for China, which as discussed over the weekend, already has over 50 million vacant apartments. What is strange is that unlike in 2009, 2012 and 2015 Beijing has shown little appetite for housing-led stimulus – the type that would also bolster the broader emerging markets – as shown see in this chart comparing China’s credit impulse and the number of cities with rising home prices.

This means that infrastructure-led stimulus has far less bang for the buck, according to UBS. And if the new credit injections are unable to make their way into the economy, it’s only a matter of time before home prices follow China’s credit impulse deep in the red, potentially unleashing the biggest housing-led Chinese recession observed in over a generation, one which may or may not be accompanied by a working class insurrection.

 

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Italy

Today is the final day for Italy’s resubmission of its budgetary deficit.  Expect fireworks.  The spread between the German bund and Italian 10 yr bond is 307 points.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Beware Fireworks As Italy’s Budget Resubmission Deadline Looms

With stocks in Europe attempting a modest relief rally after yesterday’s sharp selloff, traders remain on edge over political developments as today is the deadline for Italy’s cabinet to resubmit their budget proposal after the EC requested a new fiscal plan. Virtually nobody expects any material changes, especially with Il Sole reporting this morning that Italy will maintain its 2019 deficit target at 2.4% of GDP and could alter the 2019 GDP growth rate of 1.5%

When looking at next steps, Deutsche Bank economists yesterday concluded that as contagion has been relatively limited for now, the commission will continue to adopt a tough stance on Italy which will be found in breach of European Union fiscal rules, and it now seems inevitable they will recommend an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) in the next few weeks.

And speaking of Deutsche Bank, the German lender’s Head of Research and Chief Economist David Folkerts-Landau penned a hard hitting  Financial Times op-ed on the Italian situation, whose argument is that Europe must cut a grand bargain with Italy and that another costly sovereign debt crisis is inevitable unless the confrontational approach of the EC gives way to greater co-operationAccording to Landau, Italy has actually been a frugal member of the single currency with a cumulative primary surplus every year outside of the GFC. However, these surpluses have simply helped finance the interest on the legacy debt and debt/GDP has still climbed. Meanwhile, the associated spending cuts and austerity required to run a primary surplus have lowered the standard of living for the population and led us to the political situation we find ourselves at today. What is his proposal?

The only viable option left is to reduce Italy’s debt service payments. This would create room to increase spending to modernise its economy without increasing the deficit and debt. Increased expenditure on infrastructure, and on ensuring that reforms are implemented, will ultimately boost the country’s growth rates from their current anaemic levels. This will also enhance its ability to service debt in the future. Should the economy not grow, then it is inevitable that we will be forced to accept a substantial writedown on Italian debt.

Effectively, what the German economist argues is that a grand bargain would see ESM firepower helping to substantially lower Italy’s funding costs, allowing for more public expenditure (e.g. infrastructure) in return for Italy undergoing structural reforms. Whether or not that happens is debatable. For now it is safe to say that Italy and Brussels are very far away from the grand bargain that Folkerts-Landau thinks will eventually be needed.

Meanwhile, Italian 10Y bonds are just slightly wider, trading at 3.472%, up 0.034%…

… as limited contagion allows the European Commission to keep a tough stance on Italy even as the latest Italian polls shows electorate support for the government is historically high, which will further encourage a confrontational deficit path. Eventually, the friction focus may be overtaken by deflating euro-area macro expectations and increasing Italian recession risks with the 400bps pain threshold suggested by Tria presenting a possible market target to force the coalition’s hand.

Separately, as Bloomberg’s Mark Cudmore writes this morning in a note discussing why BTP bulls “bolster the Bearish Euro case”, two common Italy-related views that are greatly troubling:

  • being optimistic about the situation only because there’s so much at stake. That’s the head in the sand approach and suggests investors are relying on blind hope to get them through the other side, rather than analyzing the facts. It may work, but it’s hardly encouraging!
  • Many of those who are bullish BTPs medium-term seem to be using the logic that the market will drive yields up enough in the short-term that Italy and the EU will be forced to compromise. Entirely logical, but given the minimal concessions so far, it suggests BTP yields will need to surge significantly higher first, which would suggest that there’s a very tradeable bearish move to focus on first before turning bullish.

Echoing the prevailing sentiment, which expects a continued impasse, Cudmore writes that “no one expects a major swerve from either side soon, which means it’s going to be bad for both parties.” Meanwhile, BTPs are expensive to short and volatile so not the obvious risk-reward play, as a result he believes that it is the euro that will “continue to suffer over the medium-term, and you get the added kicker that any compromise that includes easier ECB policy than anticipated will also hurt the euro.”

In any event, beware headline bombs over the next few hours as we approach peak posturing from both sides ahead of tonight’s deadline.

 

end

This afternoon:

No change in the Italian budget proposal: euro slide

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

Euro Slides After Italy’s Salvini Says No Change To Budget Proposal; Midnight Deadline Looms

With the midnight deadline for Italy to resubmit its budget proposal to Brussels fast approaching, one of the two men who are effectively running Italy has just offered the clearest suggestion yet that Italy will not change its deficit and growth projections for its 2019 budget plan – setting Europe’s third-largest economy on a path that could lead to billions of fines from Brussels and the prospect of a feared ‘Italeave’.

In comments at the palace of the prime minister, where members of Italy’s council of ministers have been holed up on Tuesday, Deputy Prime Minister and La Lega leader Matteo Salvini told a group of reporters that Italy would move forward with its budget plans, regardless of what Brussels thinks, according to Italy’s ANSA newswire.

Salvini

Reiterating the long-held position of the Italian government, Salvini said Italy’s fiscal stimulus is essential to creating more jobs, offering better pension benefits and cutting taxes for many – but not all – Italians.

“We are working on a budget which guarantees more jobs, more right to a pension, less taxes, not for everyone, but for many Italians. If Europe is ok with that, we’re pleased, otherwise we continue straight ahead.”

If Italy doesn’t submit a new budget proposal with a deficit below 0.8% of GDP, in accordance with EU fiscal rules, the European Commission could seek to punish the populist government by levying billions of euros in fines, a burden that would further strain the finances of a country with the second-largest debt burden in Europe relative to GDP (second only to Greece). Salvini’s comments followed remarks from his co-Deputy PM Luigi Di Maio, the leader of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, as well as the more measured Economic Minister Giovanni Tria, who both have said that cutting the stimulus would be tantamount to “suicide” for the Italian economy.

And presumably disappointing Q3 growth print, which suggested that the Italian economy stagnated last quarter, have only strengthened the populists’ resolve.

Italy

The euro pared its earlier gains following Salvini’s comments, which effectively confirmed what many have long expected: That the Italians will thumb their noses at the European Commission after it took the unprecedented step of rejecting Italy’s budget proposal last month.

EUR

Meanwhile, Italian redenomination risk, which measures the likelihood that Italy will abandon the euro and resort to using the lira to pay down its debt, ticked higher as the prospect of all-out economic war with the European financial establishment prompted some to question Italy’s future in the eurozone.

Italy

The upshot: Based on CDS markets, the risk of Italy exiting the euro is soaring.

Cable jumps on report that the EU and UK agree on a hard border Brexit/Hard Border Brexit terms

(courtesy zero hedge)

Cable Jumps On Report EU, UK Agree On ‘Hard Border’ Brexit Terms

Another day, another Brexit negotiation story.

According to RTE reporter Tony Connelly, “EU and UK negotiators have agreed a text on how to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland, which will form part of the Withdrawal Agreement.”

Tony Connelly

@tconnellyRTE

BREAKING: EU and UK negotiators have agreed a text on how to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland, which will form part of the Withdrawal Agreement, @rtenews understands

RTE reports:

“While two well-placed sources have confirmed that the text was “as stable as it can be”, they say it would not be correct to say that the negotiations have “concluded”. According to both sources, there will be one backstop to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland.”

It also outlines the backstop:

“The backstop will come in the form of a temporary UK-wide customs arrangement, with specific provisions for Northern Ireland, which go deeper on the issue of customs and alignment on the rules of the single market than for the rest of the UK.”

And of course, the algos read the headline and bid cable back above 1.30…

The bottom line – as with so many stories surrounding this negotiation, don’t hold your breath for this headline to be confirmed.

Bloomberg reports that a senior official said it would be wrong to say negotiations were “concluded”, and that there was still some “shuttling” between London and Brussels.

However, if this report turns out to be true then it is a win for May in managing to garner some concession from the EU which was a key sticking point for hardline Brexiteers.

end

 

EU/USA

The Donald just cannot win:  Merkel defies him by backing Macron;s call for a European army

(courtesy zerohedge)

Merkel Defies Trump, Backs Macron’s Call For European Army

Two days after French president Emanuel Macron snubbed President Trump, slamming nationalism as the antithesis of patriotism during a closely watched speech with Trump sitting just a few feet away, and which prompted a flurry of provocative and taunting tweets by the US president demanding that Europe pay for its own defense (or else Paris would now be speaking German), Germany’s Angela Merkel set out her own vision of a more assertive European Union, one which aligned with that of Macron and included a European army.

Donald Trump has for the second time blasted Emmanuel Macron’s call for a “real European army

After spending the weekend commemorating the end of World War I in Paris alongside more than 60 global leaders and witnessed first hand the tensions between Trump and France’s Emmanuel Macron, the normally understated chancellor took an uncharacteristically bold stance as she addressed EU lawmakers in Strasbourg.

In Paris, Merkel defended her world view against the U.S. president’s barbs as he sparred with Macron. And, as Bloomberg reports, she went a step further in the EU parliament on Tuesday, telling deputies they need to adapt to a world in which Europe’s traditional allies may no longer guarantee the continent’s security.

“We should also work on the vision of one day creating a genuine European army,” Merkel said. “The times in which we could unconditionally rely on others are over.”

While most europhile lawmakers applauded, the comments drew loud jeers from euroskeptic lawmakers at the margins of the chamber.

Meanwhile, as reported earlier, on Tuesday Trump unleashed another torrent of tweets, grousing about the perceived slights from his weekend in Paris. At 6:50 a.m. in Washington, he tweeted another attack on the French leader, mocking the idea of a European army and implying that the French had needed the U.S. to rescue them from the Germans in both world wars.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Emmanuel Macron suggests building its own army to protect Europe against the U.S., China and Russia. But it was Germany in World Wars One & Two – How did that work out for France? They were starting to learn German in Paris before the U.S. came along. Pay for NATO or not!

Trump wasn’t done and over the next few hours, the president sent out a series of further jibes, accusing Macron of stirring up controversy to distract from his poor approval rating, complained about French tariffs on U.S. wine and offered an explanation for pulling out of a visit to a military cemetery due to bad weather.

In response, a senior aide to the French president said he was glad that Trump had taken the time to study some history. Former Belgium Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt gave Trump another history lesson on his own Twitter account.

Guy Verhofstadt

@guyverhofstadt

What Trump doesn’t seem to realize is that without French money, the USA would not even exist as France financed the American revolution. They even gave you the Statue of Liberty to celebrate this! 😉

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Emmanuel Macron suggests building its own army to protect Europe against the U.S., China and Russia. But it was Germany in World Wars One & Two – How did that work out for France? They were starting to learn German in Paris before the U.S. came along. Pay for NATO or not!

According to Bloomberg, the French official said he thought the tweets were aimed at Trump’s domestic audience, noting that the two leaders speak several times a week and their relationship is fluid, even if it isn’t always easy.

As for Merkel, the German Chancellor – well aware of the optics of German pushing for an army in light of what happened 100 years ago – insisted that the EU military wouldn’t be directed against NATO allies, but would be “a positive extension of NATO.”

The German leader has been urging her European colleagues to build new structures that will enable them to stand up for themselves since last year, when Trump castigated NATO leaders in Brussels and withdrew from the Paris climate accord.

Not everyone is on board: the U.K. government, which is negotiating its exit from the EU, won’t support the idea of an EU army, a spokeswoman said

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL

Expect a major offensive from the Israelis are they try and demolish the militant Hamas

(courtesy zerohedge)

Israeli Tanks Prepare Imminent Gaza Offensive After

“Green Light” For “Major Retaliation”

Commenting on Monday’s flare-up of rocket fire after a prior Israeli commando raid into Gaza territory to assassinate Hamas leaders, the Jerusalem Post observed that Hamas’ retaliation included “the most amount of rockets ever fired into Israel in 24 hours.”

Various international reports have cited over 300 rockets and mortars fired into Israeli, which began with a sustained barrage of about 100 within the first hour of the launches alone. What’s been dubbed as a “revenge” attack on heels of Monday funeral prayers for slain Hamas commanders killed by Israeli special forces were quickly met with widespread airstrikes on the strip, including on a Hamas television broadcast building, and some 70 targets in total across the strip.

Meanwhile there appears preparations for what could be a major war and full Israeli invasion of Gaza underway as tank units have been observed mustering at entry points into Gaza.

Notably after cutting short his Paris trip Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held a lengthy meeting with his defense minister and military leaders to consider a response to the escalating violence and rocket attacks — one of which scored a direct hit Monday on what’s now been identified as an IDF bus in southern Israel, which injured a 19-year old soldier.

The Times of Israel reports that a major ground offensive is increasingly likely, and with more airstrikes to come:

The army was reportedly given a green light from policymakers to pummel terror groups in the Strip if they continued with the barrages, as the terror organizations in the Strip vowed to do.

Israel’s Arutz Sheva reported of the defense and military meeting with Netanyahu: “in the prime minister’s consultation with the heads of the defense establishment, operational decisions were made,” and indicated “the IDF has been given a green light to launch a heavy retaliation.” 

Embedded video

Middle East Eye

@MiddleEastEye

This was the moment Israeli air strikes hit the Al-Aqsa TV office in Gaza

On Tuesday a full Security Cabinet meeting is expected to make final decisions regarding Israel’s course of action.

Meanwhile IDF Spokesperson Brigadier General Ronen Manelis warned on Tuesday“Hamas is leading the Gaza Strip to destruction and will feel the intensity of the IDF’s response in the coming hours.”

In another indicator of what’s to come possibly imminently, Major General Kamil Abu Rokon, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), wrote public comments on an official communications social media account: “Residents of Gaza, look closely at the pictures from Protective Edge in 2014: A picture is worth a thousand words.”

Late in the day Monday Hamas took the provocative step of publishing video of its operation to destroy the Israeli troop bus which had injured one soldier.

Embedded video

Anna Ahronheim

@AAhronheim

#Hamas releases video of Kornet anti-tank missile hitting bus critically injuring an #IDF soldier earlier today. He is seen clearly standing next to the bus when it was hit

A Hamas militant had attacked the bus in an ambush from somewhat close range using a sophisticated anti-tank missile.

So far at least 3 Palestinians have died with many more wounded, and an Israeli special forces soldier was killed Sunday during a daring cross border raid on a Hamas HQ. Israeli sources are reporting extensive damage on communities in the south due to incoming rockets from Gaza, and multiple civilians injured.

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Bellwether Caterpillar for global growth disappoints  as it sees the weakest retail sales growth since Sept 2017

(courtesy zerohedge)

Caterpillar Reports Weakest Retail Sales Growth Since September 2017

Just a few weeks after Caterpillar reported disappointing results, which sent its stock sliding amid growing fears about the company’s exposure to China and other emerging markets, moments ago CAT reported October retail sales data which confirmed that the growth slowdown is continuing beyond the 3rd quarter.

The company reported a 21% increase in rolling 3-month North American machine retail sales, down from 28% in September, and the weakest since May’s 20%; more concerning was the sharp drop in the core Asia/Pac sales growth which declined to 20%, down sharply from 51% at the start of the year, and the weakest print since December 2016. Retail sales growth also moderated in secondary markets such as EAME (9%) and Latin America (23%) as the peak in heavy industrial machinery usage appears to have passed earlier this year.

Finally, looking at the big picture, retail sales growth for the entire world is now half where it was earlier this year when it hit 36% in February, and in October it had dropped to just 18%, the lowest going back to September 2017.

The good news: there is still about a year – at the current rate of decline – before global retail sales turn negative as they did in 2013 and stayed there for the next 51 months as China slowed down sharply, and the US shale sector suffered a recession. That said, the trend is troubling and confirms that after peaking at the start of the year, global growth – as proxied by the industrial bellwether that is Caterpillar  – has fizzled sharpy.

7  OIL ISSUES

Crude crashes as the Saudis abandon their plan to curb production

(courtesy zerohedge)

Crude Crashes As Saudi Abandons OPEC Production Curbs

For the first time since the Vienna OPEC deal in 2016, Saudi Arabia is no longer complying with the quota as Bloomberg calculates that in October, The Kingdom boosted crude production above its starting point for oil cuts.

Saudi output in October was 10.63m b/d, according to data published in OPEC’s monthly market report; compares with 10.502m b/d in September.

As a reminder, as part of OPEC+ supply cuts, Saudi Arabia agreed to curb production by 486k b/d below the starting point of 10.544m b/d, which was its October 2016 output.

WTI Crude is crashing over 5% on the news as supply glut fears are resurgent (amid global growth fears stoke demand anxiety)…

Saudi Arabia has fully complied with OPEC+ agreement in every month through May. Since then it has cut supply, but by less than it pledged to curb. October is 1st time it has increased output above the starting point.

WTI has now retraced 60% of the two-year uptrend…

WTI Crude is now down over 6% YTD to its lowest since Dec 2017.

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

 

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1249 UP .0026 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 114.02  UP 0.325  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2923 DOWN   0.0068  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3238  DOWN .0006 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 72 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1262; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 24.36 POINTS OR 0.93%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 159.69 POINTS OR 0.62% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  1.74% /EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 459.36 POINTS OR 2.06%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 159.69 POINTS OR 0.62% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 24.36      POINTS OR 0.93%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.74%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 459.36 POINTS OR 2.06%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1198.60

silver:$14.03

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.17% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.38 DOWN 0  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 97.42 DOWN 12  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.95% UP 0    in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.11%  DOWN 0  BASIS POINTS from MONDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.61% DOWN 1 IN basis point yield from MONDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.45 up 1   POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 184 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.41%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 3.04% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM.

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1288 UP .0061 or 61 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 113.98 UP .287 OR 29 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3034 UP .0180( POUND UP 180 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 17 basis points to 1.3226

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was ROSE BY 61 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1288

The Yen FELL to 113.98 for a LOSS of 28 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND GAINED 180 basis points, trading at 1.3034/

The Canadian dollar GAINED 17 basis points to 1.3226

 

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.9560-  ON SHORE  (YUAN UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9456(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.4973

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.11%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from MONDAY at 3.16 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.38 DOWN 0 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.16 DOWN 39 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 0.68 POINTS OR 0.01%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 146.78 POINTS  OR 1.30%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 42.76 POINTS OR 0.85%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 69,10 POINTS OR 0.76%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP: 170.60 POINTS OR 0.90%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 57.15 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 67.36 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    67.84  THE CROSS LOWER BY .07 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER by 7 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.4963 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.41 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:54.81

 

BRENT:65.13

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.14%..

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.36%/.

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1285 ( UP 65 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:113.77 UP .080 (YEN DOWN 8 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.19 DOWN 36 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2958 UP 104 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.4791

the Russian rouble:  68.13 DOWN 22 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 22 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3241 UP 2 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9560  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9476 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.41%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN 100.15 POINTS OR 0.39%

NASDAQ closed UP 0.01  points or 0.00% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  20.41  CLOSED down  0.04

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.614%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/big jump today

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

Crude Carnage Kills Equity Dead-Cat-Bounce, Bond Yields Tumble

Chatter of a commodity fund liquidation did nothing to help what everyone hoped would be an excited dip-buying opportunity in stocks today…

 

 

 

China stocks extended Monday’s buying panic with CHINEXT now up over 5% in two days…

 

European stocks were higher on the day (though markets closed a long time before the Italian budget headlines hit)…

 

Quite a significant China outperformance in the last week…

 

With everyone primed for a bounce (pre-market futures signaled it after China’s exuberance and trade headlines), it didn’t happen…

 

Trannies managed to get back to even on the week briefly before fading fast after Europe closed…

 

The liquidation in crude certainly did not help stocks…

 

Small Caps suffered a ‘death cross’ today… (the last death cross was Sept 2015, which did not end well for the bulls)…

 

The Dow managed to cling on above its 200DMA, but all the other major US indices are below that key technical level…

 

AAPL tumbled back below its 200DMA…

 

GE stock had its best day in 9 years today… but GE bonds did not…

 

FANG Stocks bounced off the opening drop but ended unch…

 

Having taken the day off to remember Veterans yesterday, bond traders were back and they were buying… The belly of the curve outperformed…

 

10Y Yield tumbled to two-week lows…non-stop slide since The Fed

 

Inflation Breakevens collapsed further, catching down to WTI…

 

The dollar drifted lower on the day…breaking a 3-day winning streak

 

Cable popped and dropped as hopes for a Brexit deal once again crashed on the shores of reality…

 

Offshore Yuan squeezed higher on the day after tagging 6.97 and headlines of big banks dumping dollars (under orders of PBOC)…

 

Spot the odd one out in commodity-land…

As UBS points out:

“There are also speculations that the move lower could have been caused by redemption ahead of the year-end cut off of the 15th November and that a large hedge fund had about 50k lots to liquidate. Considering that the sell off resumes as I write, it might have just be the product of someone’s imagination.”

WTI Crude collapsed for the 12th day in a row – another new record – crashing on Saudi production data (biggest daily drop since Jan 2015)…

Brent is down 24% from October highs…

Bloodbath…

In case $54.75 (lows today) is too rich still for your blood – how about some Western Canada Select Crude – which traded at a $15 handle today…

 

And notably WTI priced in silver has tumbled at key resistance…

 

And Silver at its cheapest to gold since 1993…

 

In case you’re thinking of buying the dip in WTI? It has never, ever, been more oversold…

And oil vol has exploded…

 

And finally, in case you missed it last night, Japan has managed to break another record for extreme monetary policy malarkey – with the BoJ balance sheet now bigger than the country’s GDP…

 

 

 

market trading

“The Collapse Has Begun” – GE Is Now Trading Like

Junk

Two weeks after we reported that GE had found itself locked out of the commercial paper market following downgrades that made it ineligible for most money market investors, the pain has continued, and yesterday General Electric lost just over $5bn in market capitalization. While far less than the $49bn wiped out from AAPL the same day, it was arguably the bigger headline grabber.

The shares slumped -6.88% after dropping as much as -10% at the lows after the company’s CEO, in an interview with CNBC yesterday, failed to reassure market fears about a weakening financial position. The CEO suggested that the company will now urgently sell assets to address leverage and its precarious liquidity situation whereby it will have to rely on revolvers – and the generosity of its banks – now that it is locked out of the commercial paper market.

Indeed, shares hit levels first seen in 1995 yesterday and have only been lower since, very briefly, during the financial crisis when they hit $6.66 in March 2009. For a bit of perspective, Deutsche Bank notes that the market cap of GE now is $69.5bn and it’s the 80th largest company in the S&P 500. Yet in August 2003, GE was the largest company in the index (and regularly the world between 1993-2005) at a market cap of $296bn, $12bn more than Microsoft in second place. Since then, the tech giant has grown to be a $826bn company well over 10 times the size, while GE’s market cap peaked (ironically) during the dot com bubble in August 2000 at $594BN before tumbling first in the tech crash and then the GFC.

But while most investors have been focusing on GE’s sliding equity, the bigger concern is what happens to the company’s giant debt load, especially if it is downgraded to junk.

First, some background: GE had about $115 billion of debt outstanding as of the end of September, down from $136 billion a year earlier. And while GE is targeting a net EBITDA leverage ratio of 2.5x, this hasn’t been enough to appease credit raters, which have expressed concern recently that GE’s beleaguered power business and deteriorating cash flows will continue to weaken the company’s financial position. As a result, Moody’s downgraded GE two levels last month to Baa1, three steps above speculative grade. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings assign the company an equivalent BBB+, all with stable outlooks.

The problem is that while the rating agencies still hold GE as an investment grade company, the market disagrees.

GE – a top 15 issuer in both the US and EU indices – was recently downgraded into the BBB bucket, and as recently as September it was trading 20bps inside BBB- bonds. However they crossed over at the end of that month and now trade up to 50bps wide to the average of the weakest notch of IG.

In other words, GE is already trading like junk, and has become the proverbial canary in the coalmine for what many have said could be the biggest risk facing the bond market: over $1 trillion in potential “fallen angel” debt, or investment grade names that end up being downgraded to high yield.

As Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid notes, GE’s recent collapse has come at time when much discussion in recent months has been about BBBs as a percentage of the size of the HY market. Since 2005, BBBs have been steadily rising as a percentage of HY climbing back above the previous peak in 2014 (175%) before extending that growth to a current level of 274%. Meanwhile, the total notional of BBB investment grade debt has grown to $2.5 trillion in par value today, a 227% increase since 2009, and while it represents just over 50% of the entire IG index. 

Next, to get a sense of just how large the risk of fallen angels in the US is, consider that the BBB part of the IG index is now ~2.5x as large as the entire HY index.

So large BBB companies – and none are larger than GE – with a deteriorating credit story are prone to additional widening pressure as investors fear the risks of an eventual downgrade to HY and a swamping of paper into that market. This, as Deutsche Bank writes, isn’t helping GE at the moment and may be a dress rehearsal for what happens for weaker and large BBB issuers in the next recession.

Which brings us back to GE, which while not trading as a pure play junk bond just yet, is well on its way as the following chart of GE’s spread in the context of both IG and HY shows.

Which is both sad, and ironic: as Bloomberg’s Sebastian Boyd writes this morning, “the company’s CEOs boasted of its AAA rating as a key strategic asset, but it was more than that. The rating, which it maintained for more than half a century, was symbolic of the company’s status as a champion of American commerce. Now, Microsoft and Johnson & Johnson are the only U.S. corporates with the top rating from S&P.”

And while rating agencies have yet to indicate they are contemplating further cuts to the company’s investment grade rating, the bond market has clearly awoken, and nowhere more so than in the swap space, where GE’s Credit Default Swaps have exploded in recent weeks.

What kind of an impact would GE’s downgrade have? With $48 billion of bonds in the Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate index. GE would become almost 9% of the BB universe. And one look at Boyd’s chart below shows that the market is increasingly pricing GE’s index-eligible bonds as junk, especially in the context of the move over the past month.

An additional risk to the company’s credit profile: GE has more debt coming due in the next 18 months than any other BBB rated borrower: that fact alone makes it the most exposed to higher rates according to Boyd.

Meanwhile, GE’s ongoing spread blow out, and junk-equivalent price, has not escaped unnoticed, and as we have been warning for a while, could portend a broader repricing in the credit sector. As Guggenheim CIO commented this morning, “the selloff in GE is not an isolated event. More investment grade credits to follow. The slide and collapse in investment grade debt has begun.”

Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

The selloff in GE is not an isolated event. More investment grade credits to follow. The slide and collapse in investment grade debt has begun.

146 people are talking about this

Then again, Minerd’s concern pales in comparison to what some other credit strategists. In an interview with Bloomberg TV on November 8, Bruce Richards, chairman and chief executive officer of the multi-billion Marathon Asset Management warned that overleveraged companies “are going to get crushed” in the next recession.  Richards also warned that when the cycle does turn, “with no liquidity in the high-yield market to speak of, when these tens of billions or potentially hundreds of billions falls into junk land, it’s “Watch out below!” because there’s going to be enormous price adjustments.”

Echoing what we said above, Richards noted that about $1 trillion of bonds are rated as BBB, as investment- grade, when they has leverage ratios worthy of junk, adding that “the magnifying glass is now shifting” toward ratings companies.

For now the “magnifying glass” appears to have focused on GE, and judging by the blow out in spreads for this “investment grade” credit, what it has found has been unexpected. Which brings us to the question we asked at the top: will GE be the canary in the credit crisis coalmine and, when the next crisis finally does strike, the biggest fallen angel of them all?

 

market data/

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

USA/GERMANY/CHINA

Auto stocks slide all over the place, However a report that there is going to be a USA car import probe sent these stocks reeling

(courtesy zerohedge)

Auto Stocks Slide On Reports US Car-Import Probe Is Advancing

Minutes before the close of a brutal trading day that saw the Dow dump more than 600 points, Bloomberg published a report that simultaneously stoked the worst fears of German carmakers and US investors who are desperately searching for a positive trade-related headline to reignite the rally. The headline sent shares of Ford and GM lower into the close.

The White House is circulating a draft report by the US Commerce Department about whether to impose Section 232 tariffs on automobile imports. The report, which is the latest sign that Trump’s investigation into auto tariffs is moving forward, should offer an update on the status of the probe.

Trump ordered the investigation back in May under the same Trade Expansion Act provision that he used to justify the tariffs on steel and aluminum – though Commerce has until February to finish the probe.

Car

Trump is planning to meet with his trade advisors and Commerce staff on Tuesday to discuss the report and car-import tariffs more generally, though it’s unclear whether Trump will act soon on the tariffs, according to Bloomberg (Trump will likely abstain from more trade-related antagonisms until at least after his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit later this year).

 

News of the activity on the trade front seems ill timed, considering that European Commission trade chief Cecilia Malmstrom is about to leave for Washington to meet with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer for “exploratory” talks about a future free-trade agreement. Formal talks are expected to follow in January.

Still, automakers have good reason to be nervous. Despite the pleas of GM and Ford, who have said tariffs could seriously impact profitability and lead to thousands of job cuts, Trump has threatened 25% tariffs on imported cars while expressing frustrations with the US’s European and Japanese trading partners. Governments and companies from Europe and Asia warned that the tariffs would disrupt the global automotive industry and hurt US growth during hearings in July.

Furthermore, Trump has exhibited more signs of his growing impatience, particularly regarding what he sees as an unfair trade relationship with Japan. At a press conference last week, he told a Japanese reporter to “say hello to Shinzo”, referring to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, adding that “I’m sure he’s happy about tariffs on his cars.”

“I tell him all the time that Japan does not treat the United States fairly on trade. They send in millions of cars at a very low tax. They don’t take our cars. And if they do, they have a massive tax on their cars,” Trump added.

Furthermore, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said Monday that Europe’s avoidance of US car import tariffs might not last past the end of the year.

All of this is happening at a time when the downward spiral in US car sales continued in October after an already abysmal September.

Cars

And as if the situation in the US wasn’t bad enough, Chinese car sales were also a disaster last month, meaning that global automakers, who rejoiced at China’s promises for market liberalization, might need to find a new savior. But with the midterms now behind us, Trump is probably less concerned about the impact his trade policies might have on the market, given that the political pressure has been – at least temporarily – relieved.

end
This will not last long:  stocks rally on a report that top trade negotiator for China will meet Mnuchin in Washington
(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks Rally On Report China’s Top Trade Negotiator To Meet Mnuchin In Washington

With news that President Trump’s investigation into possible national security tariffs on car imports threatening to rattle investors during Tuesday’s session, global investors rejoiced after the South China Morning Post, a quasi-official mouthpiece for the Communist Party, reported that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He would visit the US this month to work on resolving the ongoing US-China trade dispute with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.That meeting is expected to take place in the days before President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping hold a summit of their own on the sidelines of the G-20 meeting in Buenos Aires.

Following what was the most encouraging trade news since Xi and the White House confirmed last week that the two leaders would meet at the G-20 after a seemingly interminable parade of on-again, off-again headlines, global markets rejoiced, with S&P futures catching a bid and Asian benchmarks paring their losses as Treasury futures turned lower.

Reports about the visit followed reports in the Wall Street Journal late last week that the two men, who are among the most senior officials responsible for trade talks, had spoken over the phone about possibly restarting negotiations.

Mnuchin

In its report, the SCMP said two sources from the US and two from China had confirmed the news, though they specified that a schedule for the visit had yet to be determined. It’s expected that Liu’s visit will lay the groundwork for trade talks between the two leaders. He, who is Xi’s top official for economic issues, was supposed to visit the US back in September, but he cancelled his visit as the trade tensions between the US and China entered what has been their most acrimonious stage so far – something that many analysts believe helped triggered the dramatic “Shocktober” selloff where global markets erased $8 trillion in market cap.

The US has repeatedly insisted that China agree to a framework of possible concessions ahead of the talks, including at least some of the Trump administration’s central demands – such as lowering the China-US trade surplus (which recently climbed to a record high), ending officially sanctioned IP theft, an end to cyberespionage and reducing government subsidies to China’s tech and industrial base. But whether any progress will be made on these issues remains to be seen.

News of the possible trade detente followed a visit by former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who negotiated the historic meeting between President Richard Nixon and Chinese leader Mao Zedong in 1972.

As China’s currency weakens and the economic fallouts from the trade war worsens, Chinese officials have been advocating for a negotiated end to the trade war by stressing that both sides will suffer if the spate intensifies.

At a business forum in Singapore on Tuesday, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said China and the US should be cooperative partners.

He said China hoped to achieve a proposal acceptable to both sides based on the principle of mutual respect. “There is no winner in a trade war,” Li said.

The SCMP also hinted at China’s thinking by pointing out that officials were “concerned” that making an offer before the G-20 summit would cost them leverage.

Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations with Beijing’s Renmin University, said the best guess for an outcome of the trade talks could be no further tariffs from China and the US on each other’s products.“But the other half of the trade war, which is the US technology blockade, will not be suspended, no matter who is the US leader,” he said.

In a speech on Monday, Shi said the Chinese government should expand market access, increase imports from the US, and reduce hefty state subsidies and control of economic activities to strive for a “relatively long period or regional” truce in the trade war.

But he added that China was unlikely to fundamentally change its industrial policy.

Shi said China’s top priority now was to curtail the risks of the trade war on its economy and financial system to ensure stability.

If China is hoping to avoid an escalation, then time is running out, as the US is expected to increase its tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods to 25% from 10% at the start of the new year. Of course, given that the timing and date of this visit have yet to be set, a savvy investor would be wise to check this morning’s lineups for CNBC, Fox and BBG – because there’s still time for Larry Kudlow to pour cold water on the report, presumably sending markets back into a tailspin.

 

end

Here we go again:  Trump is now ready to fire DHS Nielson because he is not satisfied with her work on the immigration problem

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Planning To Fire DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen “ASAP”

Jeff Sessions has already packed up his things and left the DOJ for the last time, and it’s likely that Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross will be next to go given Trump’s well-documented frustrations with Ross’s job performance and the percolating scandals surrounding possible ethics violations.

Nielsen

And to the list of likely Trump administration post-midterm departures, we can now add Secretary of Homeland Security Kirstjen Nielsen, whom Trump has reportedly decided to remove after months of explosive outbursts over what he has perceived as her “poor performance” on immigration – an issue that Trump sees (with some reason, as the midterms showed) as crucial to his political survival, according to the Washington Post.

The report surfaced after Trump canceled a planned trip with Nielsen to visit US troops at the border in South Texas earlier this week. Trump reportedly told aides over the weekend that he wants Nielsen out ASAP, though the secretary is desperately trying to hang on until Dec. 6, which would mark her one-year anniversary in the job. Trump, who has complained about Nielsen for months, is looking for a replacement who will do a better job of implementing his immigration agenda.

Notably, a DHS spokesman refused to confirm or deny the report.

DHS officials who work with Nielsen declined to address her potential departure Monday. “The Secretary is honored to lead the men and women of DHS and is committed to implementing the President’s security-focused agenda to protect Americans from all threats and will continue to do so,” spokesman Tyler Q. Houlton said in a statement.

As early as May, reports surfaced suggesting that Nielsen had borne the brunt of President Trump’s anger over a rebound in illegal border crossings (after crossings dropped to multiyear lows following Trump’s 2016 election). That anger has only intensified by her resistance to Trump’s rhetoric about the migrant caravans, as well as his order to send thousands of US troops to the border. Trump has also reportedly berated her during cabinet meetings, criticized her to other administration officials and tagged her as a “Bushie” due to her service in the Bush administration.

Trump became incensed last month when Nielsen tried to explain during the runup to the midterm vote why the president couldn’t close the Southern border with Mexico or drastically limit immigration.

But despite her obvious reservations, Nielsen has stood up and defended controversial Trump Administration policies like the administration’s “zero tolerance” policy for illegal aliens traveling with children. The border separations triggered widespread outrage toward the administration last spring, and Trump eventually caved and reversed the policy under pressure. However, before he did that, Nielsen stood up and delivered a convincing defense of the administration’s measures.

At the peak of controversy over the Trump administration’s “zero tolerance” family-separation initiative, Nielsen nonetheless stood at the White House lectern and delivered a vigorous defense of the measures. The president loved her performance — especially when she said there was no administration policy on separations. Days later, under withering criticism, the president changed his mind and ordered an end to the separations.

But if Nielsen is swept out during Trump’s second significant cabinet shakeup, all eyes will turn to Chief of Staff John Kelly, who has long been Nielsen’s biggest champion. He has previously stuck his neck out to defend her to the president, and her dismissal will inevitably revive speculation that Kelly’s name might also be on Trump’s “naughty” list. As WaPo reported, though Kelly has tried his hardest to stop Trump from firing Nielsen, his future in the administration is also “shaky”.

end

 

SWAMP STORIES

Arizona’s big senatorial race has been won by Sinema over McSally

(courtesy zerohedge)

Democrat Sinema Wins Arizona Senate Race, Replacing Retiring Jeff Flake

Almost a week after the midterm elections, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema won Arizona’s Senate race, after an extended vote count delivered Democrat an upset victory and a blow to Republicans and President Donald Trump. Democrats had not won a Senate seat in Arizona since 1988, but President Trump carried Arizona by less than 5 points in 2016, a closer margin than previous GOP presidential nominees.

Sinema defeated Republican Martha McSally in one of the most closely watched Senate races this cycle. Sinema led by a margin of 38,197 votes, or about 1.7 percentage points, out of more than 2.1 million votes cast, when the Associated Press called the race on Monday, replacing retiring GOP Sen. Jeff Flake.

With almost three-quarters of the state’s voters casting ballots by mail in the close race, it took Arizona officials six days to finish tabulating the results. The outcome leaves the party division in the Senate at 51-47 in favor of Republicans, with the Florida race in a recount and the contest in Mississippi set for a runoff.

The AP made the call after Sinema, who was first elected to Congress in 2012, increased her lead over McSally for the fifth straight day. Arizona still has about 200,000 ballots left to count, but McSally would have to win an improbable percentage of those remaining votes to overcome Sinema’s edge.

Sinema – who becomes the first female senator elected from Arizona and the first openly bisexual senator – will replace Republican Senator Jeff Flake, an outspoken Trump critic who often attracted the president’s ire. Flake’s sparring with Trump all but assured that if the senator ran again, he would have faced a primary challenge from the GOP’s right wing that Flake decided he probably couldn’t win.

“I just called Kyrsten Sinema and congratulated her on becoming Arizona’s first female senator after a hard-fought battle,” McSally said in a video posted to Twitter on Monday evening.

Embedded video

McSally For Senate

@MarthaMcSally

US Senate candidate, AZ

Congrats to @kyrstensinema. I wish her success. I’m grateful to all those who supported me in this journey. I’m inspired by Arizonans’ spirit and our state’s best days are ahead of us.

The race was one of the year’s most hotly contested, and each contender was ahead in two or more polls since mid-October.

Sinema, who fashioned herself as a moderate, kept the focus on health care and protections for pre-existing conditions as a wedge issue with McSally, who voted for the GOP’s ObamaCare repeal bill. More from Bloomberg:

Sinema is a former Green Party activist who over time became a moderate Democrat. Like many on the ballot from her party, she stressed her support for Obamacare and its popular protection for people with pre-existing health conditions. But she also distanced herself from more liberal Democrats by rejecting a push to expand Medicare to cover all Americans.

In the House, Sinema backed Republican efforts to curb regulations and voted against Nancy Pelosi of California in the 2015 and 2017 speaker elections, backing civil rights icon John Lewis of Georgia instead.

That said, she is certainly not a republican, siding with Democrats in a number of key areas: she supports abortion rights, gun control, environmental protections and a vigorous government role in providing a social safety net, education, job training and infrastructure.

McSally’s loss is a political setback for Trump, who carried Arizona in 2016 and spent two days in the state last month in an effort to shore up the candidacy of McSally, a former Air Force pilot. As the vote count dragged on, Trump asserted, without evidence, that there was corruption in the tally. Some state GOP officials pushed back against the assertion and settled a dispute over taking extra time to verify ballots according to Bloomberg.

During earlier years of service in the Arizona state legislature, Sinema was among about three dozen state lawmakers who served on a health-care task force that President Barack Obama used to develop his Affordable Care Act proposal in 2009.

Meanwhile McSally overcame two more conservative challengers in the Republican primary, and she aligned herself closely with Trump. She focused much of her campaign messaging on immigration and border security in an effort to boost Republican turnout. McSally also hammered Sinema over her past anti-war protesting and progressive roots.

Sinema benefited from the help of Latino voters, who make up nearly one-third of Arizona’s voting age population and who have heavily favored Democrats. Sinema’s win suggests potential for further gains by Arizona Democrats in 2020. The state has voted for a Democratic presidential candidate only once since 1948, though Hillary Clinton lost Arizona by just 3.4 percentage points in 2016.

With Arizona in the rearview mirror, a handful of other races around the country remain too close to call, including high-profile races in Florida and Georgia.

Recounts have been ordered in Florida’s hotly contested Senate and gubernatorial races, while in Georgia, the governor’s race hasn’t been called, as Democrats hold out hope that remaining ballots could push the race into a runoff, though that remains an uphill battle.

end
Looks like there will be indictments against Corsi, Trump Jr and Stone on perjury traps.  This is totally nuts..
(courtesy zerohedge)

Mueller Set To Issue New Indictments “As Soon As

Today”; Stone, Corsi, Don Jr. In Crosshairs

Robert Mueller is reportedly set to issue multiple indictments in the ongoing Trump-Russia probe, as early as Tuesday, with targets thought to include Donald Trump Jr., longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone, and Stone’s associate Jerome Corsi – who have both said they expect to be indicted.

CBS News’ Paula Reid reported on Tuesday morning: “I’ve spoken with many sources with knowledge of the Special Counsel investigation, and we do expect new indictments to be coming as soon as today.

Embedded video

Norah O’Donnell🇺🇸

@NorahODonnell

.@PaulaReidCBS reports: “I’ve spoken with many sources with knowledge of the Special Counsel investigation, and we do expect new indictments to be coming as soon as today.”

Perhaps Mueller is feeling a bit of pressure over the appointment of Acting US Attorney General Matthew Whitaker, who has publicly questioned the special counsel’s reach?

On Monday, Corsi – a former Infowars editor, said in a livestreamed video that he expects to be charged with perjury despite spending 40 hours in discussions with prosecutors, and that the talks had “all blown up,” according to Politico.

I‘m going to be indicted,” said Corsi. “I anticipate being indicted… I’m going to be criminally charged.”

Corsi, who has called the potential indictment a “perjury trap,” is suspected of having prior knowledge of the WikiLeaks dump of Hillary Clinton’s campaign emails.

Reports have suggested that Mueller‘s interest in Corsi stems from a review of communications between him and Stone in 2016 about an impending release of Clinton campaign emails by WikiLeaks, the transparency activist organization. Mueller is investigating whether any Americans had advance knowledge of the email dump, which dominated the final weeks of the campaign. –Politico

NBC News reported in late October that Mueller was investigating whether Corsi knew that WikiLeaks had obtained emails stolen by Russian hackers and whether he shared this information with Roger Stone.

In Monday’s livestream, Corsi said that he predicted WikiLeaks would release the hacked emails because he “figured it out,” as opposed to him being in contact with WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.

Or, perhaps Corsi was simply following Kim Dotcom’s Twitter feed where the release of Clinton’s emails was telegraphed as early as July , 2015. 

Kim Dotcom

@KimDotcom

Mishandling classified info is a crime. When Hillary’s emails eventually pop up on the Internet who’s going to jail? http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/07/25/us/politics/hillary-clinton-email-classified-information-inspector-general-intelligence-community.html?_r=0&referrer= 

Kim Dotcom

@KimDotcom

Will hackers 0wn the U.S. presidential election and prevent Hillary Clinton? #Wikileaks

In any event, Corsi says that while he tried to cooperate with Mueller’s team, his “mind was mush” after speaking with prosecutors, and that they set a perjury trap by not allowing him to see various documents and statements they were referring to during his “interrogation.”

According to Corsi, prosecutors presented him with a subpoena at his house on August 28th, three days before his 72nd birthday. He says that while he didn’t talk to the special counsel’s office at the time, he subsequently met several times with Mueller’s team in Washington while his lawyer was present. Corsi recalls prosecutors Aaron Zelinsky, Andrew Goldstein and Jeannie Rhee being present.

I think my crime, really, is supporting Donald Trump,” said Corsi during his livestream. “Now I’m going to have to go to prison for the rest of my life because I dared to oppose the Deep State,” he added.

Roger Stone

Stone, in an emailed statement to The Hill, said that his attorneys have reviewed all of his communications with Corsi and they “prove everything I have said under oath regarding my interaction with Dr. Corsi is true.”

“I stand by my statement to the House Intelligence Committee and can prove it is truthful if need be,” said Stone. “I have passed two polygraph tests administered and analyzed by two of the nations leading experts to prove I have truthful.

Trump Jr. 

Earlier this month, Vanity Fair‘s Gabriel Sherman reported that a White House official who testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee said “I’m very worried about Don Jr” perjuring himself over whether he told his father, then-candidate Donald Trump, about the infamous Trump Tower meeting to get “dirt” from Russia on Hillary Clinton, before the meeting took place.

Former Trump personal attorney, Michael Cohen, meanwhile, arrived in Washington D.C. on Monday accompanied by one of his criminal defense lawyers, reports ABC. While the purpose of his travel is unclear, he has met multiple times with Mueller’s team and federal prosecutors in New York City, according to ABC‘s sources.

Those discussions, sources say, have been focused on the president’s business and his family’s charitable foundation.

The two campaign finance violations are connected to Cohen’s role in alleged hush money payments during the presidential campaign to two women who allegedly had affairs with Trump years ago.

Trump has denied the allegation and maintained that he did not know about the settlement agreement until after it was signed.

Trump only publicly acknowledged awareness of the payments after his lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, said in April on Fox News that Trump paid Cohen back for the costs associated with the Stormy Daniels deal. Giuliani contended that the payments were for purely personal reasons and that no campaign finance laws were broken.

ABC

Cohen, meanwhile, told a federal judge in August that the payments to the women were made “in coordination with and at the direction of a candidate for federal office,” adding “I participated in this conduct… for the principal purpose of influencing the election.”

So – Trump may have paid two women to keep quiet while running for office to protect his image, while Don Jr., Roger Stone and Jerome Corsi may or may not have known about, or tried, to gain an advantage over Hillary Clinton with emails allegedly stolen from Russia – and certainly not given to WikiLeaks by anyone else, perhaps on a locally copied thumb drive.

Meanwhile, should we assume Mueller has indictments prepared for Hillary Clinton, the DNC, Glenn Simpson, Christopher Steele, Perkins Coie and the rest of the links in the chain connected to the Trump-Russia dossier which relied on Kremlin officials – all in an attempt to gain an advantage over Trump?

Vanity Fair

 

 

 

end

CNN sues the Trump administration demanding a return of Acosta’s press pass

(courtesy zerohedge)

CNN Sues Trump Administration, Demands Return Of

Acosta’s Press Pass

Two days after former ABC News reporter Sam Donaldson revealed that CNN was gearing up to sue the Trump Administration over its decision to suspend the press credentials of Chief White House Correspondent Jim Acosta, President Trump’s favorite news organization has confirmed the speculation in a Tuesday morning tweet.

In a bizarre example of a news organization reporting on itself, CNN revealed that it was suing the White House on First Amendment and Fifth Amendment grounds. The lawsuit was filed in US District Court in Washington DC on Tuesday morning.

CNN

@CNN

JUST IN: CNN files a lawsuit against President Trump and top aides for banning reporter Jim Acosta https://cnn.it/2DBtUa5

Both Acosta and CNN are named as plaintiffs, while defendants include two secret service members, three White House senior staff and – of course – President Trump himself.

Both CNN and Acosta are plaintiffs in the lawsuit. There are six defendants: Trump, chief of staff John Kelly, press secretary Sarah Sanders, deputy chief of staff for communications Bill Shine, Secret Service director Joseph Clancy, and the Secret Service officer who took Acosta’s hard pass away last Wednesday. The officer is identified as John Doe in the suit, pending his identification. The six defendants are all named because of their roles in enforcing and announcing Acosta’s suspension.

The lawsuit comes after CNN sent a letter to the White House formally requesting the immediate reinstatement of Acosta’s pass and threatening a lawsuit. The news organization is demanding a preliminary injunction to allow Acosta to return to the White House press room as soon as possible.

While the First Amendment case – that Trump is directly impinging on CNN‘s press-related freedoms – is self-evident, CNNis relying on a little-known precedent for its claims that the administration violated Acosta’s due-process rights.

As the prospect of a lawsuit loomed on Sunday, attorney Floyd Abrams, one of the country’s most respected First Amendment lawyers, said the relevant precedent is a 1977 ruling in favor of Robert Sherrill, a muckraking journalist who was denied access to the White House in 1966.

Eleven years later, a D.C. Court of Appeals judge ruled that the Secret Service had to establish “narrow and specific” standards for judging applicants. In practice, the key question is whether the applicant would pose a threat to the president.

The code of federal regulations states that “in granting or denying a request for a security clearance made in response to an application for a White House press pass, officials of the Secret Service will be guided solely by the principle of whether the applicant presents a potential source of physical danger to the President and/or the family of the President so serious as to justify his or her exclusion from White House press privileges.”

There are other guidelines as well. Abrams said the case law specifies that before a press pass is denied, “you have to have notice, you have to have a chance to respond, and you have to have a written opinion by the White House as to what it’s doing and why, so the courts can examine it.”

“We’ve had none of those things here,” Abrams said.

That’s why the lawsuit is alleging a violation of the Fifth Amendment right to due process.

Here’s CNN’s statement on the lawsuit:

“CNN filed a lawsuit against the Trump Administration this morning in DC District Court,” the statement read. “It demands the return of the White House credentials of CNN’s Chief White House correspondent, Jim Acosta. The wrongful revocation of these credentials violates CNN and Acosta’s First Amendment rights of freedom of the press, and their Fifth Amendment rights to due process. We have asked this court for an immediate restraining order requiring the pass be returned to Jim, and will seek permanent relief as part of this process.”

Acosta’s press pass was revoked after he refused to sit down during a press conference and got into a physical standoff with a young, female White House intern when she tried to take his microphone.

WH

Acosta’s petulant questions incensed Trump, who called Acosta a “rude, terrible person” in a press room standoff that has become the stuff of legend.

Of course, the real reason for CNN’s lawsuit should be obvious to all who are familiar with the discovery process. As its lawyers gather evidence to build their case, they will look for anything indicating that President Trump himself gave the order to revoke Acosta’s pass. Information that, we imagine, will promptly be leaked to CNN’s impartial journalists before it is used as ammunition by Congressional Democrats in one of their many planned investigations.

 

end

There is no way that Rick Scott is going to recuse himself in the Florida election.  Nelson is demanding that all votes be counted.  The problem here is that many are fraudulent

e.g non citizens voting/mixing of provisional ballets with regular ballots/the strange appearance of 93,000 ballots and most of those going to the democrats/

(courtesy zerohedge)

Schumer And Nelson Accuse Rick Scott Of Trying To “Bully” His Way To Victory; Demand

Immediate Recusal

Democratic Senators Chuck Schumer (NY) and Bill Nelson (FL) demanded at a Tuesday press conference that Nelson’s GOP opponent, Florida Governor Rick Scott, recuse himself from the recount process that will determine the winner of their race.

“President Trump and Governor Scott seem dead set against counting every vote. Why? Because they’re worried that if every vote is counted, Bill Nelson will be reelected as Senator from the great state of Florida.

Trump and Scott are attempting to bully the election officials in Florida out of doing their jobs, in an attempt to win this election. It’s just plain wrong. It’s un-American. Attempts to bully, threaten and cajole officials into not counting every vote is a large and dangerous step away from the democracy we all cherish. Trump and Scott must stop now.”  -Chuck Schumer

Embedded video

ABC News Politics

@ABCPolitics

Sen. Chuck Schumer: “President Trump and Governor Scott seem dead set against counting every vote. Why? Because they’re worried that if every vote is counted, Bill Nelson will be reelected.” http://abcn.ws/2hFejwL 

96 people are talking about this

Zach C. Cohen

@Zachary_Cohen

Nelson, with Schumer beside him, reiterates importance of continuing #FLsen recount and call for Scott’s recusal from it. He’s down about 12.5K votes.

See Zach C. Cohen’s other Tweets

Andrew Desiderio

@desiderioDC

Schumer says Nelson has an “excellence chance, much greater than half chance, of being re-elected” if recount done properly. “We will not have a re-run of 2000, when bullying and intimidation ruled, and created a rush to judgment. … That cannot happen again.”

See Andrew Desiderio’s other Tweets

On Monday, Nelson accused Scott, of “using his power of governor to undermine the voting process,” and has called on Scott to “remove himself” from the recount process that will determine the winner of their race.

It’s “obvious that Scott cannot oversee this process in a fair and impartial way,” Nelson said in a two-minute video released by his campaign.

“And, thus, he should remove himself from any role in the recount process so the people can have confidence in the integrity of the election. Given his efforts to undermine the votes of Floridians, this is the only way that we can ensure that the people’s votes are protected.” –NBC News

“He’s stood on the steps of the governor’s mansion and tried to use the Florida Department of Law Enforcement to investigate the Broward elections chief,” Nelson said. “He’s filed lawsuits to try to stop votes from being counted and to impound voting machines. The reason he’s doing these things is obvious: He’s worried when all the votes are counted, he’ll lose the election.”

A spokesperson for Scott responded to Nelson’s claims Monday, saying in a statement: “The recount is being managed by the individual and independent Supervisors of Elections in all 67 counties,” adding. “If Bill Nelson has an issue with the way the recount is being run, he should take it up with them.”

Scott’s filed several lawsuits against Broward and Palm Beach County election officials last week, demanding in one that law enforcement seize and safeguard voting machines and ballots “when they are not in use,” after claims of potential malfeasance. On Monday, Scott dropped that motion after a judge said he could find no evidence for the improper activities that would justify doing so.

In another complaint, Scott accused Broward County Elections Supervisor Brenda Snipes of counting ballots after the Saturday noon deadline. The campaign is filing two other lawsuits against Snipes and Palm Beach County Elections Supervisor Susan Buchner asking that the election equipment be seized when not being used for recounts, which were ordered by Florida’s secretary of state on Saturday. Recounts were ordered in Scott’s senate race against Nelson and Democrat Andrew Gillum’s narrow loss to Republican Ron DeSantis, as well as in the race for Florida Agriculture Commissioner. In the lawsuits, Scott asked that both supervisors be required to preserve all ballots and records connected with the 2018 election. Suspicious voting patterns have been detected in Broward County as more than 20,000 ballots left the lines for governor blank while voting in down ballot races.

Scott has accused Nelson of wanting fraudulent ballots and those cast by noncitizens to count – noting that Nelson’s lawyers objected to a provisional ballot being rejected in Palm Beach which was cast by a noncitizen.

Arthur Schwartz

@ArthurSchwartz

Lawyers for democrats Gillum and Nelson objected to the rejection of votes cast by non-US citizens. https://dailycaller.com/2018/11/10/gillum-nelson-non-citizen-vote/ 

4,856 people are talking about this

***

As we reported Saturday, Broward County Supervisor of Elections, Brenda Snipes, missed a court ordered 7PM Friday deadline to allow for the immediate inspection of mysteriously found ballots.

The court was asked to intervene in a tight race for US Senate between Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson and Republican Gov. Rick Scott, after tens of thousands of ballots mysteriously appeared in Broward County, and another 15,000 in Palm Beach.

Lawyers for Snipes have argued that such a quick response would interfere with the count, while Rep. Bill Nelson has accused Republicans of trying to deny him a seat which he believes he will keep once all the votes are counted.

SWAMP STORIES COURTESY OF THE KING REPORT

and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down to us:

CBS News: Commentary: Why the Democratic House could sink Donald Trump
Is President Trump prepared to face the “subpoena cannon”? And is unending political warfare what the midterm voters wanted? [Actually, yes, something like 2/3 of Dem voters want DJT’s scalp.]
 
@realDonaldTrump: The Florida Election should be called in favor of Rick Scott and Ron DeSantisin that large numbers of new ballots showed up out of nowhere, and many ballots are missing or forgedAn honest vote count is no longer possible-ballots massively infected. Must go with Election Night!
 
In a breathtaking display of astounding hypocrisy, some of the usual suspects warned Trump that it was dangerous to delegitimize US elections.
 
At the instigation of HRC, the MSM and Dem leadership, Dems and DJT haters vowed ‘resistance’ to the 2016 election result.  GOP leadership enabled the ‘resistance’.  Now, pro-DJT forces and their allies are impugning the integrity of the US electoral system.  Things will get worse before they get better
 
The current political hate and division in the USA is why there had been a tradition of giving a new president a honeymoon by ostensibly supporting the new prez for a short period.  The opposite occurred for DJT because numerous officials in the Obama and Bush administrations have legal jeopardy.  Now, DJT allies are fomenting a Midterm Elections resistance to the further detriment of the USA.
 
@IBDeditorials: Samuelson: “One lesson of the midterm elections is that economic growth is losing its power to unite the country and to reduce explosive conflicts over race, religion, ethnicity, immigrant status and sexuality.”… The anger on one side of the political spectrum feeds anger on the other. Polarization grows; people become more and more distrustful..
 
Goldman Crashes to 2-Year Lows as Malaysia Seeks “Full Refund” on 1MDB Deals
Provisional [Broward County] Ballot Boxes Left Inside AVIS Rental Car at Fort Lauderdale Airport
 
@1776Stonewall: It is a bit peculiar that Ducey got more than 200,000 more votes than McSally in Arizona. Why would 200,000 people vote Republican for governor, but not for a decorated Republican war hero in the Senate?
 
@mitchellvii: Did 350,000 voters who voted Repub for Governor in AZ really vote Dem for Senator?
 
US analysts locate secret North Korean missile sites
“Kim Jong Un only committed voluntarily to halt long-range missile tests.”…
I HOPE TO SEE YOU ON WEDNESDAY IF ALL GOES WELL
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