NOV 14: GOLD UP $8.15 TO $1209.30/SILVER UP 10 CENTS TO $14.10/BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS BECOME UNDONE AND THIS MAY LEAD TO THERESA MAY’S DEPARTURE/MIKE PENSE ISSUES STERN WARNING TO CHINA TO NEGOTIATE OR ELSE…/GERMANY’S LATEST QUARTER CONTRACTS DUE TO PLUMMETING CAR SALES/DEMOCRATS ARE ALREADY DEMANDING A CHANGE IN NAFTA AND THAT CAUSED CDN DOLLAR AND MEXICAN PESO TO FALTER/CANADA IS GETTING KILLED IN THE OIL SECTOR AS WESTERN OIL (SHUT IN) SELLS FOR 15 DOLLARS/

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1209.30 UP  $8.15 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.10 UP 10 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1211.40

 

silver: $14.14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

NOV

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV CONTRACT:1 NOTICE(S) FOR 100

Total number of notices filed so far for NOV:  205  for 20500 OZ  (0.6376 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR NOVEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

3 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

15,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 1404 for 7.020,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $6382: down  $74

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $5804  down 669 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY  A HUMONGOUS 4397 CONTRACTS FROM 220,290 UP TO  224,346  DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 5 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR NOV.  2178 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND 163 FOR MARCH AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2341 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2348 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2341 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 11.71 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 5 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND  39.505 MILLION  OZ STANDING  IN SEPT.  2,520,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER. AND NOW SO FAR A HUGE 7,035,000 OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV: 

28,852 CONTRACTS (FOR 10 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 28,852 CONTRACTS) OR 132.555 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2954 CONTRACTS OR 14.72 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF NOV:  142.760 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 20.28% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,570.34    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4397 DESPITE THE 5 CENT DECLINE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2341 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED: 6738 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 2341 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 4397 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THUS  STRONG  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 5 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.00 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH  IN SEPTEMBER A FINAL MONSTROUS 39.05 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY, WITH HUGE DELIVERIES OF OVER 2 MILLION OZ IN OCTOBER (A NON DELIVERY MONTH) AND NOW  7.035 MILLION OZ IN NOVEMBER….... NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.059 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 151% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 3 NOTICE(S) FOR 15.000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz AND NOW NOV AT 7.035 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS  SIZED 18,136 CONTRACTS UP TO 539,520 DESPITE THE  LOSS IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A DROP IN PRICE OF $1.75).THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7804 CONTRACTS:

 

 

NOVEMBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 7804 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 539,520. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED RISE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 25,940 CONTRACTS:  18,136 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 7804 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 25,940 CONTRACTS OR 2,594,000 OZ = 80.68 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A  FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $1.75???.

 

 

 

 

FRIDAY, WE HAD 5477 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 77,760 CONTRACTS OR 7,776,000 OZ OR 241.86TONNES (10 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7776 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 241.86 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 241.86/2550 x 100% TONNES =  9.48% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,451.80  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 18,136 DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICING ($1.75) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7804 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7804 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC RISE OF 25,940 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7804 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 18,136 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 80.68 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $1.75 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX????.

 

 

we had: 1 notice(s) filed upon for 100 oz of gold at the comex.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY: / 

 

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   761.16 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 761.16 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY

 

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY 4387 CONTRACTS from 219,949 UP TO 224,346  AND MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

i) 0 EFP’s for November… and

 

2178 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER. 163 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2341 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 4798 CONTRACTS TO THE 2341 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS NET GAIN OF 6738 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE  GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 33.69 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., AND NOW 7.035 MILLION OZ STANDING IN NOVEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 5 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 2341 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 19.20 POINTS OR 0.86% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 138.44 POINTS OR 0.54% //The Nikkei closed UP 35.96 OR 0.16%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN  1.69%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9532 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil DOWN to 56.18 dollars per barrel for WTI and 66.31 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED EXCEPT LONDON//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.9532AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9475: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING SLIGHTLY WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C/  CHINA

Pense states that if China does not capitulate , then there is going to be all out cold war coming

Pense wants 3 areas agreed to:

1.reducing the trade deficit with the USA

2. cessation of widespread intellectual property theft.

3. freedom to navigate through the South China Sea

( zerohedge)

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Last night:  UK

The pound rallies quite a bit as key cabinet ministers begrudgingly back May’s Brexit plan

( zerohedge)

ii)GERMANY
Germany is the engine for Europe.  The Euro is lower than it ought to be if Germany would be using the Mark by about 10%.  Yet this was not enough to help their economy which shrank for the first time in 3 years by .2% in Q#3
trouble ahead…
( zerohedge)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Israel

Political crisis in Israel as Defense Minister Lieberman resigns his post accusing Netanyahu for “surrendering to Hamas

( zerohedge)

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

i)A terrific commentary from John Mauldin explaining the world wide debt and how this debt is growing 10x faster than GDP. He explains that this will not end well.

( John Mauldin/Forbes)

ii)This is just the beginning as we witness a total divided Congress.  Now Democrats are demanding changes to NAFTA 2.0
( zerohedge)

 

7. OIL ISSUES

i)Graham Summers points out that we first had the emerging nations get clobbered due to the scarcity of dollars.  Now oil “gets it” because of worldwide lack of demand and scarcity of dollars

Next up will be the USA markets

(courtesy Graham Summers)

ii)Canada is getting killed as oil has collapsed to just above 15 dollars because local production in the west remains landlocked and the court decision to block the Trans Canada Pipeline/keystone project did not help.  Canada has a poor Prime Minister who has difficulty in understanding the all important issues

( zerohedge)

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Macron states the obvious: the Euro is not yet an alternative to the USA dollar

(Bloomberg/GATA)

ii)This is a fact:  mining shares have never been cheaper.  Also mining companies should be shot for not complaining about the criminal manipulation with respect to the precious metals.

( Bill Murphy/GATA)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

i)ANOTHER DEAD CAT BOUNCE;

( zerohedge)

ii)PG and E has been pegged for starting the huge campfire in Northern California and much of their infrastructure there has been destroyed. P G and E plummets this morning after drawing down on its revolving credit

(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)The bond king, Gundlach has spoken:  with the collapse of GE, this is not an isolated event…there is going to be other investment grade credit operations plummet in price…there is no corner to hide

( zerohedge)
 

ii)Market data/

Consumer price gains the weakest since February

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Peter Schiff correctly states that a divided Congress will mean even bigger deficits

( Mac Slavo/SHFTPLan.com/Peter Schiff)

b)This is a case worth watching:  The state of Maryland is suing Whittaker that he does not have the authority to act as Attorney General.  The case revolves around Obamacare

a good read…
( zerohedge)
c)The new Malaysian Prime Minister fumes that his country has “obviously been cheated by Goldman Sachs” They are asking for a full refund on the fraud
( zerohedge)
d)The “Amazon effect” in full bloom:  now mall owners are handing over the keys to lenders before they even default.
( zerohedge)
e)This is not good: The Southern California fire (Woolsey fire) which has coated the area with an apocalyptic orange glow may have released radioactive particles and toxic chemicals into the air after scorching the land on closed dwon government weapons testing facility in Simi Hills.
(courtesy zerohedge)
f)Auto stocks rise a bit after the White House decides to hold off on car tariffs for the time being
( zerohedge)

g)Maxine Waters, although she is not dumber than an ox, she is not that much smarter.  When in power this mentally challenged future head of the House Finance Service committee probably new regulations against the banking sector..down goes the banks

( zerohedge)
h)Popular Michael Snyder gives his 11 signs that the uSA economy is starting to slow down dramatically

( Michael Snyder)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Trump is to submit in writing to Mueller on the Russian probe in the next few days

( zerohedge)

b)The Feds are now investigating altered election documents tied to the Florida democratic party
what else is new..
( zerohedge)
c)The White House muzzles Peter Navarro after a spat with doorknob Kudlow. Both guys theories are out to lunch

(courtesy zerohedge)
E)SWAMP STORIES/THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 18,136 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 539,520 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($1.75 IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7804 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

NOV: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  7804 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7804 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  25,940 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7804 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS 18164 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 25,940 contracts OR 2,594,000 OZ OR 80.68 TONNES.

 

We are now in the non active contract month of November. For the November contract month, we have 7 notices standing so we LOST 0 contracts. We had 0 notices served YESTERDAY so we gained 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz of gold will stand for gold at the comex and these guys refused to morphed into London based forwards as well as negate receiving a fiat bonus for the trouble.

 

 

 

 

 

The next delivery month after November is the very big December contract month and here the OI FELL by 231 contracts  to 327,145 contracts.  January saw a  RISE TO 3795 FOR A GAIN OF 227 CONTRACTS.  February gained 13,483 contracts to stand at 146,634 contracts.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 1 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 100 OZ.

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI rose BY 4397 CONTRACTS FROM 219,949 UP TO 224,346 (AND CLOSER THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S STRONG  OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED WITH A 5 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED 2341 EFP CONTRACTS:  FOR NOVEMBER:  0 CONTRACTS AND FOR …

 

FOR DECEMBER: 2178 CONTRACTS, FOR MARCH 163 CONTRACTS, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2341.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 6738 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  4397 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2341 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   6738 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS VERY STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 5 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY???????

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of NOVEMBER and here we now have 6 notices  standing for a gain of 3 contacts.  We had 0 notices served upon yesterday so we gained 3 contracts or an additional 15,000 oz will  stand for delivery as these longs refused to  morph into London based forwards as well as not accepting a fiat bonus for their efforts. 

 

 

 

 

After November, we have a December contract and here we LOST 1701 contracts DOWN to 139,310.  January saw a GAIN of 196 contracts up to 1246 contracts.   March, the next big delivery month after December saw a gain of 2805 contracts  up to 63,704.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 3 notice(s) filed for 15,000 OZ for the NOV, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 259,360 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  294,143  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  NOV/GOLD

NOV 14-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

3506.32

 

oz

Delaware

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
1 notice(s)
 NIL OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
6 contracts
(600 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
205 notices
20500 OZ
0.6376 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

total gold entering dealer:  0 oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer;  0 oz

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 1 customer deposit
i) into Delaware:  3506.32 oz
total customer deposits 3506.32 oz
we had 2  adjustments…and I have been waiting for these:
i) Out of Brinks:  2933.347 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Brinks
this is a settlement…
ii) out of Int. Delaware  6563.950 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account and this landed into the customer account of ID
total weight:  9497.29 oz or .2954 tonnes
they still have a little way to go as .65 tonnes is standing.

FOR THE NOV 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (205) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (7 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz per contract) equals 21,100 OZ OR 0.6562 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of NOV

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (205 x 100 oz)  + {7)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1x 100 oz )which equals 21100 oz standing OR 0.6562 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOVEMBER.

WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE LONGS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS. QUEUE JUMPING IN GOLD DID RETURN AS THE DEALERS QUEUE JUMPING OBTAINING GOLD AS THEY TRY AND PUT OUT FIRES ELSEWHERE.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.001 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 0.6562 TONNES STANDING FOR NOVEMBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  138,146.468 oz or   4.001 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,023,872.749 oz 249.57 tonnes
 I BELIEVE THAT THIS IS THE LOWEST REGISTERED GOLD READING IN THE COMEX HISTORY..AS WELL AS THE LONGEST WE HAVE SEEN THE REGISTERED COLUMN AT 5 TONNES OR LESS.

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THERE IS NO GOLD AT THE COMEX..AS THE CROOKS SEEMS TO BE FORCING LONGS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF LONDON FORWARDS AND NOT TAKE POSSESSION OF ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX/

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

NOV INITIAL standings/SILVER

NOV 14, 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 377,344.408oz
CNT
Brinks
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
625,835.850
oz
Brinks
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
3
CONTRACT(S)
15,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3 contracts
(15,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 1404 contracts

(7,020,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

 

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Intop Brinks:  625,835.850 oz

total dealer deposits: 625,835.850 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 151.7 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.67% of all official comex silver. (151.7 million/293.9 million)

ii)Into  everybody else:  zero

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil oz

we had 3 withdrawal out of the customer account:
i) Out of CNT: 29,260.843 oz
ii) Out of Brinks: 2956.300 oz
iii) Out of Delaware: 345,127,258 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 377,344.401 oz

 

we had 3 adjustment and all adjusted out of the dealer and into the customer:

i) Brinks:  6,709,755.760 oz

ii) CNT: 617,963.905 oz

iii) Out of Scotia:  1,011,693.900 oz

total adjusted out 8.339 million oz and that should take care of settlements for silver in November.

 

 

total dealer silver:  80/224 million

total dealer + customer silver:  293,019  million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2018. contract month is represented by 3 contract(s) FOR 15,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1404 x 5,000 oz = 7,020,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (6) and the number of notices served upon today (3 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOV/2018 contract month: 1404(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV( 6) -number of notices served upon today (3)x 5000 oz equals 7,035,000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month.  This is a gigantic number of oz standing for an off delivery month. Somebody is after a large supply of physical silver. We GAINED 0 contracts or an additional NIL OZ will  stand at the comex as these longs refused to accept a London based forwards as well as negating the right to receive a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 91,953 CONTRACTS  … 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 100,115 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 100,115 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 500 million OZ  71.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -5.03% (NOV 13/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -2.25% to NAV (NOV 13/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -5.03%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.07/TRADING 11.51/DISCOUNT 4.60

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $8.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.77 TONNES AT THE GLD/THAT SHOULD END THE WHACKING OF GOLD FOR NOW AND A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 84 TONNES: INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $2.60″ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.70 TONNES

NOV 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.80 A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.70 TONES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.29 TONNES

NOV 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.06 TONNES

NOV 1/: 2 TRANSACTIONS:WITH GOLD UP $23.85,A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .80 TONNES OF GOLD TO PAY FOR FEES, INSURANCE AND STORAGE: INVENTORY AT THE GLD RESTS AT 754.06 TONNES THEN A DEPOSIT OF 6.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.82

OCT 31: WITH GOLD DOWN $11.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RE3STS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCTOBER 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCTOBER 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.15: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES. FROM ITS LOW POINT AT THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER THE GLD HAS ADDED.19.47 TONNES OF GOLD

OCT 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.88 TONNES

Oct 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.97 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.82

AND THEN: A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES SUCH THAT THE FINAL RESTING INVENTORY IS 747.88 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.70 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RSTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP BY ONLY $1.00/WE HAD ANOTHER 4.12 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.45/ANOTHER 5.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 744.64 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.35/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $35.20 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER GOLD INVENTORY GAIN OF 8.82 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17

OCT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.60 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NOV 13.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 761.16 tonnes

*IN LAST 496 TRADING DAYS: 173.99 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 396 TRADING DAYS: A NET 13.69 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS; A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 328,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/ A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.784 MILLION OZ

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ/

NOV 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 281,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ.

NOV 7: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 143,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.320 MILLION OZ/

NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.033 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.463 MILLION OZ.

OCT 31/WITH SILVER DOWN  18 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ/

OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ

OCTOBER 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS NO  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.879 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ.

OCTOBER 26/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ

OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ/

OCT 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.819 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 331.690 MILLION OZ.

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 470,000/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.509 MILLION OZ/

OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INV. RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.127  MILLION /RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ/

OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 15/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 12/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, A GOOD SIZE WITHDRAWAL OF 563,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ.

 

 

NOV 14/2018:

 

Inventory 324.456 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

SMALL JUMP IN LIBOR RATES TODAY./

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.33/ and libor 6 month duration 2.86

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .53

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.66%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.13

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.47

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

GoldCore Capitalising On Brexit With Dublin Gold Vault

(Reuters) – Gold broker and storage company GoldCore said on Tuesday it had opened a gold vault in Dublin, aiming to attract investors looking for an alternative to London after Brexit.

Dublin-based GoldCore, which set up the facility in collaboration with security firm Loomis International, said it was Ireland’s first institutional grade vault.

“Brexit and other financial and geopolitical risks make asset diversification and owning assets in different jurisdictions more important than ever,” GoldCore said in a statement.

London is a global precious metals trading and storage hub and GoldCore is not alone in seeking to position itself for potential new business amid the uncertainty of Britain’s planned exit from the European Union next year.

Sources on Monday told Reuters the Bank of France had partnered with U.S. banking group JPMorgan (JPM.N) to expand its range of gold bullion services for other central banks – a business dominated in Europe by London and the Bank of England.

GoldCore offers trading, delivery and storage of gold coins and bars internationally and was founded in 2003. Loomis is one of the world’s largest operators of professional bullion vaults.

News and Commentary

GoldCore seeks to capitalise on Brexit with Dublin gold vault (Reuters.com)

Dublin broker opens new vault for gold bars exiting London due to Brexit (IrishTimes.com)

Gold broker and storage company GoldCore said on Tuesday it had opened a gold vault in Dublin (CNBC.com)

GoldCore capitalising on Brexit with Ireland’s first institutional grade vault. (EuroNews.com)

PRECIOUS – Gold edges up as dollar drifts away from multi-month high (CNBC.com)

Premier Foods to stockpile raw materials in the run-up to Brexit (BBC.com)

Dow falls in wild session as Wall Street fails to recover from sharp losses (CNBC.com)

U.S. government posts $100 billion deficit in October (Reuters.com)

‘Lame-duck’ Congress returns, facing budget, Mueller, border wall issues (Reuters.com)


Source: ZeroHedge.com

Silver Cheapest To Gold In 25 Years – Watch China (ZeroHedge.com)

UBS: Australian Home Prices Could Collapse 30% (Bloomberg.com)

S&P 500 by two-thirds, warns fund manager (MarketWatch.com)

America’s Fake-Money Success Was an Accident – Bonner (BonnerAndPartners.com)

Ray Dalio’s Faith in Gold Is Unshaken (Bloomberg.com)

 

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

13 Nov: USD 1,197.55, GBP 928.70 & EUR 1,066.18 per ounce
12 Nov: USD 1,207.05, GBP 940.05 & EUR 1,072.34 per ounce
09 Nov: USD 1,219.05, GBP 936.96 & EUR 1,075.81 per ounce
08 Nov: USD 1,223.45, GBP 932.02 & EUR 1,071.01 per ounce
07 Nov: USD 1,235.05, GBP 938.64 & EUR 1,074.62 per ounce
06 Nov: USD 1,234.85, GBP 947.75 & EUR 1,083.58 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

13 Nov: USD 14.02, GBP 10.85 & EUR 12.46 per ounce
12 Nov: USD 14.16, GBP 11.00 & EUR 12.57 per ounce
09 Nov: USD 14.34, GBP 11.01 & EUR 12.63 per ounce
08 Nov: USD 14.49, GBP 11.06 & EUR 12.70 per ounce
07 Nov: USD 14.67, GBP 11.15 & EUR 12.77 per ounce
06 Nov: USD 14.70, GBP 11.25 & EUR 12.89 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Store Gold In The Safest Vaults In Ireland
– Investors Set To Store Gold In Dublin Due To Brexit Risks
– Investors Start Buying Gold ETFs In October In Bullish Shift
– As Brexit Looms and Stocks Plunge In October – Now May Be The Time to Invest in Gold
– AMERICAN ELECTIONS FARCE AS POLITICIANS IGNORE THE LOOMING $121.7 TRILLION DEBT CRISIS
– Gold ETFs See Strong Demand In Volatile October After Robust Global Gold Demand In Q3
– Venezuela Seeks To Repatriate $550 Million Of Gold From London
– Big Short’s Eisman Is Shorting Two U.K. Banks on Brexit
– “Red October” Highlights Importance of Rebalancing Portfolios and Gold’s “Very Positive” Outlook
– Alarm Bells Ring and Gold Rises In October As Stocks and Property Fall Globally
– Gold Analysts At LBMA See 25% Return To $1,532/oz In 12 months
– Gold Improves Investment, Pension and Central Bank Portfolio’s Risk-Adjusted Returns
– Gold Gains Nearly 1% On Week As Global Stock Markets Fall Sharply

GoldCore Secure Storage Ireland – Information and Introduction Video Here

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

 

NOV 14

ii) GATA stories
This is a fact:  mining shares have never been cheaper.  Also mining companies should be shot for not complaining about the criminal manipulation with respect to the precious metals.
(courtesy Bill Murphy/GATA)

Mining shares have never been cheaper relative to metal, GATA chairman says

 Section: 

11:59a ET Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, interviewed at the New Orleans Investment Conference this month by Charlotte McLeod of the Investing News Network, says gold and silver mining shares may never have been as cheap relative to metal prices as they are now. Murphy believes that metals prices will explode but not until the government-inspired price suppression ends or is defeated. The interview is 6 minutes long and can be heard here:

https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-inves…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Macron states the obvious: the Euro is not yet an alternative to the USA dollar

(Bloomberg/GATA)

French president says euro is not yet an alternative to U.S. dollar

 Section: 

By Geraldine Amiel and Helene Fouquet
Bloomberg News
Sunday, November 11, 2018

French President Emmanuel Macron said that the euro is not “a clear alternative” to the dollar thanks to the U.S. currency’s international “strengths.”

“Until now, we fail to make the euro as strong as the dollar,” Macron, speaking English, said in an interview with CNN broadcast on Sunday. “We made a great job during the past years but it’s not yet sufficient.”

For the French president, European corporations and entities are too dependent upon the U.S. currency. “This is an issue of sovereignty for me. So that’s why I want us to work very closely with our financial institutions, at the European levels and with all the partners, to build a capacity to be less dependent from the dollar,” he said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-11/macron-says-the-euro-…

END



iii) Other Physical stories

 

________________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.9532/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER NOW ON //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9475   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 19.20POINTS OR 0.86%

. HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 138.49 POINTS OR 0.54%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 35.96POINTS OR 0.16%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED EXCEPT LONDON

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 97.23/Euro FALLS TO 1.1286

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.11/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 113/88/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 56.18 and Brent: 66.31

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE:  UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.39%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 3.49% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.61%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 3.10: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.52

3k Gold at $1201.55 silver at:14.00   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 42/100 in roubles/dollar) 67.64

3m oil into the 56 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.88DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0093 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1391 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.39%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.14% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.35%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.4716

Global Stocks, US Futures Slide As Oil Rebound Fizzles, Pound Tumbles

European stocks pared a decline of as much as 1.2% on Wednesday but remained in the red, as the FTSE 100 erased losses after the pound resumed its drop ahead of today’s key cabinet meeting, and as oil rebounded after a Reuters report OPEC+ may cut 1.4MM barrels of output, following the latest mixed data out of China…

…  while Asian shares slumped and US equity futures slid in the red fading earlier gains.

Overall sentiment was negative, with stocks around the globe in the red, if not suffering major losses.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index was dragged lower by mining and energy shares following the latest round of disappointing Chinese retail sales data, as good news for the auto sector – following a Bloomberg report that the White House would hold off imposing auto tariffs for now – wasn’t enough tip the broad European market into the green.

Autostocks

European stocks were also pressured by the worst German GDP print since 2015, after Europe’s strongest economy contracted in the 3rd quarter as a result of collapsing auto production.

Not helping was continued political gridlock in Italy, whose cabinet defied Europe overnight and resubmitted its budget proposal, predicting a 2.4% budget deficit, a number that had previously been rejected by Brussels. European energy stocks were down 0.9%; they pared losses at one point as oil recovered after a OPEC’s President said the group and its allies will cut production, and Reuters reported up to 1.4MM barrels in production would be cut. West Texas crude attempted a rebound after posting its longest losing streak on record, however the spike has been short-lived for now and at this pace, oil’s record 12-day decline appears set to continue.

OPEC

The UK’s FTSE 100 was flat with the pound falling as much as 0.5% vs USD after a sharp jump on Tuesday, with the success of U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal still in question, given the need to win over her Cabinet members and later Parliament.

Energy producers also weighed in Australia, where equities slumped. Japanese stocks came off their highs of the day, while shares declined in Hong Kong, China and South Korea. The Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) shrugged off a contraction to GDP data with the benchmark index kept afloat for most the session by JPY weakness and as automakers cheered reports the US was said to be planning to hold off on implementing auto tariffs for now. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.9%) were also downbeat as participants digested mostly uninspiring releases from China including softer than expected New Yuan Loans, Aggregate Financing and Retail Sales, although Industrial Production and Fixed Assets Investment data topped estimates

In currencies, all eyes were on the pound, which swung between gains and losses as traders wait to see if Theresa May could persuade her cabinet to back her Brexit deal. The dollar reversed a decline during Asian hours, while the Norwegian krone hit its lowest level since June 2017 following a rout in oil prices. The euro dipped 0.2% to $1.1270 as euro-area economic growth slowed in the third quarter, held back by a contraction in Germany. The Swedish krona fell as inflation missed estimates for October, weakening the case for an interest rate hike as soon as next month.

Treasury yields were flat and the dollar remained near an 18-month high, rising from earlier session lows. Italy’s sovereign bonds climbed despite the government submitting a defiant budget to the European Commission on Tuesday.

Traders also fretted over the next move in oil, which has suffered a historic rout at an already challenging time for global equities, which have been digesting a downturn in the tech sector, the ongoing trade spat between the two biggest economies as well as a higher-rate regime.

And as we reported earlier that the Trump administration is holding off for now on imposing new tariffs on automobiles, there is ground for some optimism, but Brexit and Italian risks linger, American inflation data is out Wednesday and key reports on the crude market are also imminent.

The key event in the US will be the October CPI report where the consensus is for another +0.2% mom reading for the core – the 37th successive month with such a forecast.

In addition to today’s key CPI report, attention will also turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who speaks Wednesday at a conference on national and global economic issues; some expect the Chair to expound on topics and recent events in markets that did not make their way into last week’s sparse FOMC statement, with some analysts expecting him to calm worries about the central bank pushing its interest rate-hike cycle too far.

Elsewhere, India’s rupee rallied to an almost two-month high and its sovereign bonds advanced as the slump in oil prices deepened, easing investor concerns over the oil-importing nation’s current-account deficit. Emerging-market equities slipped. Gold fell.

Expected data include mortgage applications and inflation. Canopy Growth, Macy’s and Cisco are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,723.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 361.31
  • MXAP down 0.2% to 150.12
  • MXAPJ down 0.6% to 478.54
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 21,846.48
  • Topix up 0.2% to 1,641.26
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 25,654.43
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 2,632.24
  • Sensex up 0.09% to 35,177.13
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.7% to 5,732.77
  • Kospi down 0.2% to 2,068.05
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.9 bps to 0.39%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1274
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 3.074%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.2 bps to 1.618%
  • Brent futures up 0.5% to $65.77/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,200.23
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.30

Top Overnight News

  • Prime Minister Theresa May has clinched a Brexit deal with the European Union after months of deadlock. She now has to convince a skeptical Cabinet that it’s not a sellout and overcome near impossible odds to get it through Parliament
  • The U.S. and China have resumed contact “at all levels” over trade ahead of a planned meeting between President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said
  • China’s industrial production and business investment gained pace, while retail sales growth slowed, signaling some stabilization for policy makers grappling with the slowest economic growth in nearly a decade
  • Japan’s economy contracted in the third quarter for the second time this year after an earthquake, typhoons and torrential rain battered production at home and exports declined amid softer demand overseas
  • The Trump administration will hold off for now on imposing new tariffs on automobile imports as top officials weigh revisions to a report on the national security implications, according to two people familiar with the matter
  • Oil was showing little sign of recovering from its unprecedented decline as investors flee a market hammered by swelling supplies and a darkening demand outlook
  • Euro-area GDP grew 0.2%, matching an initial estimate, but half the pace recorded in the previous period, Eurostat said Wednesday. The German economy shrank for the first time since early 2015 after the auto industry took a hit
  • U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham called Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman “unstable and unreliable” and said he and other lawmakers were discussing sanctions against the longtime U.S. ally in the wake of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s killing
  • OPEC and allied oil producers will cut or adjust production as needed to balance the market, the group’s president, United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei, said Wednesday

Asian equities traded lacklustre following a similar performance on Wall Street where the energy sector was hit by a further
aggressive slide in oil prices but with losses in the broader market stemmed amid resilience in financials and tech. ASX 200 (-
1.7%) was led lower by weakness in energy names after WTI crude fell nearly 8% on its record 12th consecutive decline, while
Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) shrugged off a contraction to GDP data with the benchmark index kept afloat for most the session by JPY
weakness and as automakers cheered reports the US was said to be planning to hold off on implementing auto tariffs for now.
Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.9%) were also downbeat as participants digested mostly uninspiring
releases from China including softer than expected New Yuan Loans, Aggregate Financing and Retail Sales, although Industrial
Production and Fixed Assets Investment data topped estimates. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher as the lacklustre risk tone across
the region underpinned demand and in which upside gained traction as the Japanese benchmark stock index momentarily gave up
all its gains.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Economy Hints at Improvement Ahead Amid Consumer Gloom
  • Sumitomo Mitsui Profit Jumps on Trading, Loans and Fee Business
  • Samsung Arm Faces Criminal Probe After Breaking Accounting Rules
  • Iran Executes Gold Coin ’Sultan’ as U.S. Sanctions Bite
  • Weber Sees Takeda Getting More Than 66% Vote on Shire: Nikkei

Major European indices, excluding FTSE 100 (+0.1%), are in the red (albeit off of worst levels, amid a mild uptick in crude prices
and positive earnings from Tencent), with the FTSE MIB (-1.2%) lagging its peers amid political jitters and negativity from Mediaset
(-8.1%) post earnings and Telecom Italia (-4.0%) following a negative broker move amid board unrest; of note, reports suggest that Alfredo Altavia is the lead candidate for CEO. Sectors are mixed with energy names and materials lagging whilst utilities lead.
Elsewhere, Smiths Group (+6.3%) are in the green after confirming their full year management expectations and spinning-off their
Healthcare unit. E.ON (+2.5%) are firmer after reporting a beat on earnings, Wirecard (-4.0%) are at the bottom of the Stoxx 600
post-earnings, whilst Rio Tinto (-3.0%) shares have been hampered after a downgrade at Liberum

Top European News

  • Macquarie Being Investigated by Denmark for Role in Tax Scandal
  • EON Reports Profit Gain, Eyes Synergies From Innogy Takeover
  • Maersk Raises Lower End of Forecast Range as Sales Pick Up
  • U.K. Inflation Unexpectedly Stays at 2.4% as Food Costs Decline
  • Convicted Balkan Ex-Leader’s Asylum Plea Puts Orban in a Jam

In FX, it’s Brexit day for the Pound, or at least another pivotal moment in the process towards reaching a deal before the UK officially leaves the EU as the Cabinet decides whether to back or reject the withdrawal agreement. The session kicks off at  14GMT and the outcome remains uncertain even though PM May appears to have persuaded key Ministers to vote in favour, as the minority DUP coalition partner has already indicated its strong opposition. Hence, some retracement in Sterling from the highs seen when news broke that UK and EU negotiators had finally agreed resolved the outstanding issues, with Cable back below 1.3000 and almost retesting 1.2900 on negative legal observations on the terms of the backstop, while Eur/Gbp is firmly back above 0.8700. Note, benign inflation data has also kept the Pound in consolidative/defensive mode. EUR – The single currency remains partly in lock-step with the Gbp on Brexit-related moves, but also depressed by the ongoing Italian-EU budget stand-off and further evidence of slowing momentum in the Eurozone economy, with German GDP weaker than forecast in Q3. Eur/Usd has lost grip of 1.1300 as a result, and from a technical perspective is back below the 100 HMA at 1.1312. SEK/NOK – Another weak Scandi macro release has seen the Sek underperform and Nok decline in sympathy, as Swedish CPI missed consensus and raised more doubt over a Riksbank hike in December rather than February 2019. Moreover, the domestic political backdrop remains clouded as PM candidate Kristersson did not get Parliament consent to try and form a new Government. Eur/Sek up to 10.2980 and toughing strong chart resistance vs circa 10.2135 at one stage, Eur/Nok just shy of 9.6400 from 9.585 at the low.

In commodities, Brent (+0.3%) and WTI (+0.1%) break their downward streak, following sources reporting that OPEC+ are debating a 1.4mln BPD oil supply reduction. This followed today’s IEA monthly stating that OPEC crude output rose by 200kbpd in October, which is up 240k compared to last year; and Q3 stocks posting their largest gain since 2015. At the time, this added to the recent downward pressure on prices before the aforementioned sources suggesting an OPEC+ supply reduction. Of note, we APIs will be released today due to Monday’s Veterans Day Holiday. Gold (-0.1%) is marginally softer amidst a firmer dollar with Gold breaching USD 1200/oz to the downside and unable to benefit from the current risk environment. Separately, shanghai rebar prices have recovered from recent lows, as expectations of economic stimulus from Beijing offsets record October steel output.

Looking at the day ahead, all eyes will of course be on the October CPI report. Away from the data, over at the Fed, Vice Chair of Supervision (Quarles) will give his semi-annual testimony on banking supervision to the House Financial Services Panel. Late this evening and after the close, Fed Chair Powell will participate in a conference with the Fed’s Kaplan. Oh and don’t forget Brexit will be in the news!

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -0.7%
  • 8:30am: US CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%; Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
    • US CPI YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.3%; Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 2.2%
    • Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 1.06%; Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 0.5%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

We look like we now have a draft Brexit withdrawal deal. Now this easy part is out of the way along comes the hard part of selling  it to a divided Parliament full of vested interests and factions. Theresa May briefed cabinet members one by one last night and will hold a full special cabinet meeting at 2pm today to approve (or not) the deal. The agreement document will then be published over the next two days and the next 10 days will be spent on selling the deal to MPs and to the wider public. November 24/25th could then mark an EU summit to agree the deal, followed by the UK Parliamentary vote, with some press reports suggesting December 10th is earmarked but it could be earlier. Oliver Harvey put out a piece last night highlighting 10 key questions ( link ) for the market in light of the draft deal. For me the key ones surround whether there are any UK government resignations, whether the DUP are comfortable with the deal, and the reaction of the press.

The initial political reaction wasn’t brilliant, with attacks coming from all directions. Nigel Dodds, the Deputy Leader of the DUP said that if the deal subjects Northern Ireland to “rules and laws set in Brussels, not in Westminster or Belfast, then that’s unacceptable.” The leader Arlene Foster later echoed these comments. The hard Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg described the mooted deal as “a failure to deliver on Brexit,” while Labor Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn warned that his party would vote against the proposal if it does not “work for the whole country.” The sharpest rhetoric unsurprisingly came from Boris Johnson, who called the deal “utterly unacceptable” and recommended Parliament to “chuck it out,” though he has not yet seen the details. However, the UK PM May’s most important pro-Brexit ministers, like Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and Environment Secretary Michael Gove, are reported by the Sun to be standing by her side.

Consistent with the cacophony of noise from Westminster, sterling traded somewhat erratically yesterday. It initially gained as much as +1.54% when headlines broke about a deal being reached, as the market continues to interpret any Brexit progress as a positive. The currency later retraced a bit as the slew of negative reactions trickled through. Nevertheless, the pound still ultimately closed +1.0% stronger and is stable (+0.08%) in early trading this morning. Maybe I’m reading too much into all the initial comments from MPs from all sides who haven’t seen the full deal text but at this stage I can’t see how the deal passes through Parliament. Time will tell and maybe views will soften.

As an aside at home we got an email from EuroTunnel last week as we are travelling to France with Bronte the dog just a few days after the UK leaves the EU at the end of March. Holiday not emigration by the way! The email urged us to go to see a vet ASAP to find out exactly what the arrangements will be for dogs in case of a no-deal Brexit. My wife coincidentally had to take Bronte for some jabs the next day and thus asked the vet. The vet said she had absolutely no idea what it would mean. So vets can be added to the list of those of us utterly confused about the potential scenarios and what the consequences will be going forward. Outside of Brexit, oil was the big story yesterday with WTI and Brent falling a stunning -7.07% and -6.63% respectively, yesterday, which puts it in the 99.4th percentile for worst daily moves over the last 35 years. That means that oil prices are now down for 12 consecutive sessions. We’ve been lazy over the last couple of days and highlighted that oil was on its worst successive losing streak since 1983 based on when Bloomberg’s data starts. However we went through our archives yesterday and found a bit more daily data back to 1977 and we still we cant find a losing run of this magnitude. It now stretches to 12 days.

Prices started to crash lower midway through the afternoon, with WTI dropping through $59, $58, $57, $56 and $55 at one point before settling back above $55 as the US equity market closed. Overnight oil prices are still finding it difficult to find base in Asia this morning with WTI down another -0.41% and Brent -0.29%. The move came about after OPEC’s monthly report, which showed that Saudi Arabia pumped a record volume of oil in October, eclipsing its 2016 level which was the basis of the prior deal to cap production for the first time. The report also forecast a surprising build in global excess supply in 2019, as forecasts for non-OPEC supply were increased by 120,000bpd and global demand was reduced by 70,000bpd. A series of other headwinds contributed to the move, including President Trump’s tweet earlier this week calling for lower oil prices, the apparent reluctance by Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak to support production cuts, and forced selling by vol-targeting and CTA funds.

Having held the title as one of the best performing assets in 2018, and one of only 8 assets out of 70 to have a positive total return in USD terms this year up until the end of October, WTI is now down -8.52% for the year (Brent -2.50%). So another asset now down in dollar terms for the year.

The move for oil weighed on US equities, as the energy sector (-2.39%) derailed an otherwise healthy session. The S&P 500 and DOW retreated -0.15% and -0.40% respectively, while the NASDAQ traded flat and the NYFANG index advanced +1.21%. Cyclical sectors (apart from oil) performed well, with financials and industrials leading gains, up +0.59% and +0.45% respectively. The NEC Director Larry Kudlow extended the positive sentiment around the latest round of US-China trade headlines, saying that talks between the two governments  are happening at “all levels.” Treasury yields nudged a bit lower especially at the front end where 2-year yields ended down -3.3bps, while 10-year yields finished -3.9bps lower, as the move in oil continued to weigh on inflation expectations, with 10-year breakevens down -1.9bps yesterday and -13.9bps from their early October peak.

On Italy, the government opted yesterday to stick with its budget deficit and growth projections, of 2.4% and 1.5% respectively, despite pushback from the European Commission. This raises the odds that the Commission institutes the Excessive Deficit Procedure imminently. 10-year BTPs rose +0.8bps yesterday and the FTSEMIB advanced +0.90%, as the news broke after European markets had closed. So something to watch at the open today but it’s hardly a surprise.

In the meantime, in a letter published on the Italian Treasury’s website this morning Finance Minister Tria has said that Italy will raise the privatisation goal to 1% of GDP for 2019 from the earlier planned target of 0.3% annually for the 2019-2021 period which it is hoped will help the government to reduce the debt to GDP ratio faster to 126% in 2021. However, it seems unlikely that this will assuage the EC concerns. Italy also asked for the EU to be flexible for extraordinary events such as floods and infrastructure work after the Genoa bridge collapse and has pencilled in €1bn for infrastructure maintenance in 2019. Elsewhere, the IMF in its annual review of the Italian economy said that “the planned stimulus carries substantial downside risks as it would leave Italy very vulnerable,” and the IMF projects Italian GDP growth to be c.1% in the 2018-20 period with the deficit standing at 2.7% of GDP in 2019 and public debt to remain around 130% of GDP over the next three years.

This morning in Asia, markets are off to a mixed start with Nikkei (+0.17%) up while the Hang Seng (-0.13%), Shanghai Comp (-0.06%) and Kospi (-0.22%) are down. Overnight data releases in China showed some signs of economic stabilisation as October industrial production (at +5.9% yoy vs. +5.8% yoy expected) and YtD October fixed asset investment (at 5.7% yoy vs. +5.5% yoy expected) surpassed expectations even as October retail sales (at +8.6% yoy vs. +9.2% yoy expected) disappointed. The data in China follows softer than expected October credit growth data yesterday which was a bit of a surprise in light of recent tax cuts and easing measures. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (+0.08%) are pointing towards a largely flat open and Japan’s preliminary Q3 annualised GDP came in at -1.2% qoq (vs. -1.0% qoq expected).

In other overnight news, Bloomberg has reported that the US will hold off for now on imposing new tariffs on automobile imports as the White House weighs revisions to the Commerce Department report into the impact of car imports on national security.It’s worth  noting that this morning’s data in China kick starts what is actually a fairly packed day ahead. Along with the UK Cabinet meeting, a couple of the other highlights – namely US CPI this afternoon and a speech by Fed Chair Powell this evening warrant a bit more of a preview. For US CPI, the consensus is for another +0.2% mom reading for the core – the 37th successive month with such a forecast – however our US economists do expect a slightly above market +0.3% print, which if so, would round up the annual rate to +2.23%. As for Powell, he’s due to speak after the close at 11pm GMT at a conference on national and global economic issues, and our colleagues think that this will be important since it will allow the Chair to expound on topics and recent  events in markets that did not make their way into last week’s sparse FOMC statement.

Indeed, the event may preview some issues that will likely turn up in the minutes (released November 29th). Given the broad scope of the event, Powell’s and Kaplan’s discussion could range anywhere from how recent events such as the soft Q3 capex data or October’s market volatility may have affected the Fed’s economic outlook to longer-run issues such as the ultimate size of the balance sheet or the uncertainty around estimates of the neutral level of interest rates.

Back to yesterday, Greece – remember that? – also had a rare moment back in the spotlight after Bloomberg reported that the Bank of Greece was mulling a plan to free Greek lenders from €42bn of bad debts. The idea being mooted included transferring around half of deferred tax claims sitting at Greek banks to a SPV which in turn would sell bonds and use the proceeds to buy bad loans from lenders. Most of the capital at Greek banks is made up of tax claims against the state. Greek banks rallied +5.35% yesterday for the sub-index’s 6th best day this year – however that’s in the context of a -40.52% decline this year. The broader Athex was up +1.39% although is still also one of worst-performing markets this year with a -19.74% YTD return. Greek 10y yields actually rose +3.0bps post the news however at 4.40% are a long way from the heady days of 2015 when we talking about yields closer to 20%.

That Greece news did at least appear to help European markets more broadly rise in conjunction with some positive earnings  reports and the trade headlines. The STOXX 600 finished +0.97% and DAX +1.30%. Bond markets were little changed with the exception of Gilts which rose 6.8bps amid the positive initial Brexit headlines that a deal was in the arrivals lounge.

As for the data yesterday, in Germany the final October CPI print was confirmed at +0.1% mom and +2.4% yoy – unchanged relative to the estimate. In the UK the main story was the soft employment data. The unemployment rate rose unexpectedly by one-tenth to 4.1% while the claimant count rose for the sixth consecutive month to 2.7%. The flip side was stronger than expected earnings with ex-bonus earnings coming in at +3.2% yoy in the three months to September, a tenth above consensus. The soft employment data is one to watch going forward with our UK economists noting that recent survey data also notes further weakness in the labour market ahead. The other data in Europe yesterday was the November ZEW survey in Germany where the current situations index tumbled nearly 12pts and far more than expected to 58.2 (vs. 65.0 expected). However that was somewhat offset by a tick up in the expectations component.

In the US, the October NFIB small business optimism index fell slightly to 107.4 from 107.9, but remains close to its all-time high. The US Treasury’s monthly budget statement showed a deficit of $100.5bn, roughly in line with expectations. The Fed’s senior loan officer survey showed little change to lending standards to large firms and will therefore have a limited impact on the economic outlook.

To the day ahead now where this morning we’ve got preliminary Q3 GDP data in Germany, where the consensus is for a -0.1% qoq reading. Shortly following that we get final October CPI revisions in France and a first look at the data for the UK. That then leads us into the advance Q3 GDP print for the Euro Area (no change from the preliminary +0.2% qoq reading expected), before September industrial production data for the Euro Area rounds out a busy morning. In the US all eyes will of course be on that aforementioned October CPI report. Away from the data, over at the Fed, Vice Chair of Supervision (Quarles) will give his semi-annual testimony on banking supervision to the House Financial Services Panel. Late this evening and after the close, Fed Chair Powell will participate in a conference with the Fed’s Kaplan. Oh and don’t forget Brexit will be in the news

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 19.20 POINTS OR 0.86% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 138.44 POINTS OR 0.54% //The Nikkei closed UP 35.96 OR 0.16%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN  1.69%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9532 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil DOWN to 56.18 dollars per barrel for WTI and 66.31 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED EXCEPT LONDON//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.9532AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED WELL UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9475: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING SLIGHTLY WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 
END

3 C CHINA

Pense states that if China does not capitulate , then there is going to be all out cold war coming

Pense wants 3 areas agreed to:

1.reducing the trade deficit with the USA

2. cessation of widespread intellectual property theft.

3. freedom to navigate through the South China Sea

(courtesy zerohedge)

Pence: “All-Out Cold War” Coming If China Doesn’t Change Course; “We Won’t Back Down”

The Washington Post’s Josh Rogin has revealed stunning comments issued by Vice President Mike Pence during a conversation between the two aboard Air Force Two as the VP traveled for an official trip to Asia this week, where he landed in Singapore for regional summits highlighting Indo-Pacific security, trade and investment.

Pence reportedly said the White House is prepared to undertake take dramatic policy changes regarding China if Beijing does not capitulate to its demands as the trade war continues. In addition to the issue of tariffs, pressing security issues include the US demanding Chinese cessation of what’s reported to be widespread intellectual property theft and refusal to recognized America freedom of navigation through and above the South China Sea. 

According to Rogin, Pence went so far as to speak of an all-out Cold War during the interview, promising that:

If China wants to avoid an all-out cold war with the United States and its partners, it must fundamentally change its behavior, according to Vice President Pence. The United States, he assured me, won’t back down.

Pence head to Asia, via USA TodayThreat of initiating a “cold war” with China is one thing when analysts and op-ed pages have thrown the term into the public square of late; however, its quite another, constituting dramatically escalatory rhetoric, when the vice president of the United States says it. It represents a dangerous crescendo after months of down spiraling Washington-Beijing relations, and at a time when Russia is demonstrating its increasingly cooperative stance of solidarity with China.

The words also come weeks before Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to meet on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires on November 30. Given the timing, we could also be witnessing the administration laying the groundwork for Trump’s classic “arguing from the extremes” to pressure foreign leaders to give up more during negotiations.

According to Rogin’s op-ed:

Pence told me in an interview that Trump is leaving the door open for a deal with Xi in Argentina, but only if Beijing is willing to make massive changes that the United States is demanding in its economic, military and political activities. The vice president said this is China’s best (if not last) chance to avoid a cold-war scenario with the United States.

Referencing the G20 meeting, Pence said, “I think much of that will depend on Argentina.” In what is a clear message to Beijing ahead of the face-to-face meeting, Pence described: “The president’s attitude is, we want to make sure they know where we stand, what we are prepared to do, so they can come to Argentina with concrete proposals that address not just the trade deficit that we face… We’re convinced China knows where we stand.”

The US, Pence said further, is “in a strong position” for a potential escalation of the trade war it has already ongoing and vowed President Trump “won’t back down”. Hinting that Washington has much more in its arsenal, Pence continued: “We really believe we are in a strong position either way. We are at $250 billion [in tariffs] now; we can more than double that,” and affirmed, “I don’t think it’s a matter of promises. We’re looking for results. We’re looking for a change of posture,” according to the interview.

Washington Post Opinions

@PostOpinions

It’s up to China to avoid a cold war, Vice President Mike Pence tells @JoshRogin https://wapo.st/2DAYC3b 

Opinion | Pence: It’s up to China to avoid a cold war

Xi Jinping’s meeting with Trump in Argentina is China’s best and last chance to avoid escalation and pain.

washingtonpost.com

25 people are talking about this

China, however, has not shown a pattern of conceding to threats — in fact it’s demonstrated it’s often willing to risk confrontation with the West — the latest case in point being responding to US tariffs with its won protectionist measures, or in other instances aggressively intercepting US aircraft and navel vessels while laying claim to international waters as sovereign Chinese territory.

With now explicit talk of a US-China “all out Cold War” coming from the administration it’s past time to remember “Thucydides Trap” theorist and author Graham Allison’s warning:

“If Thucydides were watching, he’d likely say all parties almost seem to be competing to show who can best exemplify the role as rising power, ruling power, and provocateur.

— Graham Allison

This could easily lead to the following scenario base on the slightest provocation, according to Professor Allison: “What happens is that a third-party provocation, an accident, becomes a trigger to which one of the two feels obliged to respond and they find themselves in a war that neither wanted.”

 

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Last night:

The pound rallies quite a bit as key cabinet ministers begrudgingly back May’s Brexit plan

(courtesy zerohedge)

Pound Rallies As Key Cabinet Ministers Begrudgingly

Back May’s Brexit Plan

After nearly two years of painstaking negotiations, UK Prime Minister Theresa May appears to have finally secured a Brexit deal that has received the begrudging support of her cabinet. The pound rallied Tuesday evening, breaking above $1.30 as traders’ swallowed their doubts and embraced what, if accurate, could be a groundbreaking report from the Sun’s chief political correspondent, Tom Newton Dunn.

According to Dunn, Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, Home Secretary Sajid Javid, Environment Secretary Michael Gove, Transport Secretary Chris Grayling and Commons Leader Andrea Leadsom have all begrudgingly agreed to back May’s 500-page plus revised Brexit plan after the prime minister pleaded with them to acquiesce “in the national interest.”

Prepping the ground, The Sun has learned that Mrs May told the Cabinet’s regular weekly meeting [Tuesday] morning: “We will have to sit there as a Cabinet and consider what is in the national interest”.

A senior No10 source added that the PM will tell today’s showdown that the negotiation “has been pushed as far as it can go” and that the UK “cannot get any better deal than this one”.

The source added: “The PM is firmly of the view that the deal will not be improved by dragging it out any longer”.

[…]

They included Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, Home Secretary Sajid Javid, Environment Secretary Michael Gove, Transport Secretary Chris Grayling and Commons Leader Andrea Leadsom.

The Sun understands that none of the key players are expected to resign today, with all grudgingly agreeing to go along with her plan at least for now.

The news sent the pound rallying Tuesday evening: GBP/USD climbed as much as 0.5% to 1.3036, breaching its 55-day moving average and nearing its Nov. 7 high of 1.3175.

GBP

While many members of May’s conservative party, including avowed Brexiteers like Jacob Reese-Mogg, remain opposed to the current iteration of the so-called Brexit “backstop” – which calls for the entirety of the UK to remain inside the EU Customs Union until an agreement on a new trade deal can be reached, something Reese-Mogg and Boris Johnson have said risks transforming the UK into a vassal state – it appears May might finally have enough votes to push the deal through parliament.

May

Of course, resorting to the hard-sell approach of demanding votes in “the national interest” has always been part of May’s plan, as details from May’s strategy for selling the (then still unfinished) deal showed late last month.

Apparently, enough of May’s allies agree, as the rhetoric circulating around Westminster was that, though May’s draft deal “isn’t perfect”, it did include some key wins.

Tom Newton Dunn

@tnewtondunn

Brexit deal latest: Cabinet sources say May’s pivotal 5 senior ministers – Raab, Hunt, Javid, Gove and Cox – will back it. Leadsom and Grayling also on board. McVey and Mordaunt so far not.https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/7733661/theresa-may-cabinet-ministers-brexit-plead/ 

Theresa May pleaded with Cabinet ministers to act in the ‘national interest’ and back her draft…

THERESA May last night pleaded with tortured Cabinet ministers to act in “the national interest” and back her compromise Brexit deal with the EU. In a landmark moment, British and EU negotiators fi…

thesun.co.uk

Tom Newton Dunn

@tnewtondunn

The detail on the Irish backstop:
1. A UK-wide customs union, and no NI-only version (UK win)
2. An independent panel to arbitrate a ‘good faith’ end mechanism (UK win)
3. No backstop end date or time limit (UK loss)
4. Full level playing field rules apply thru out (UK loss)

But Mrs May’s allies claimed that while the deal is not perfect, it was “the best anyone could get”, and she has pulled off some key wins.

They include throwing out a Brussels bid to enforce a customs border down the Irish Sea, and an independent panel to arbitrate over if the Irish border backstop should end when either side stops acting in good faith.

Theresa May last night pleaded with tortured Cabinet ministers to act in “the national interest” and back her compromise Brexit deal with the EU.

After meeting with her key cabinet ministers one by one on Tuesday, May successfully persuaded them to support the deal during a grueling three-hour meeting. If the cabinet formally approves the deal on Wednesday, then EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier will call for a meeting of the 28 EU leaders on Nov. 25 to finalized the draft agreement. After that, it will be put up for a vote in the House of Commons.

Aside from Reese-Mogg and BoJo, who appear to be digging in their heels, many of the Brexiteers have finally acquiesced, perhaps sensing that they had few alternatives aside from a “no-deal” Brexit. However, Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, upon whom May depends for 10 votes in Parliament, remains opposed to the draft agreement (though the text of the deal won’t be released until it’s formally approved by the cabinet, the highlights have already leaked).

DUP leader Arlene Foster, whose 10 MPs’ votes are crucial to Mrs May, last night declared that any new trade barriers between Northern Ireland and the UK are “not acceptable.”

It would also be “democratically unacceptable” for Northern Ireland trade rules to be set by Brussels, she added.

Issuing an ominous warning to the PM, Ms Foster added: “These are momentous days and the decisions being taken will have long-lasting ramifications.

“The Prime Minister must win the support of the Cabinet and the House of Commons. Every individual vote will count.”

If May fails to win support for the deal, either from her cabinet, or from Parliament, she could face a leadership challenge as simmering resentments against her administration break out into open hostility. And while the Sun and May would like us all to believe that this time is different – that she finally has a deal that might pass muster in the House of Commons – this wouldn’t be the first time we’ve heard that, only for a “finalized” deal to collapse. Just remember: It’s not over until the vote totals are in.

end
Then bang!!!!!

Sterling Pounded As May Faces ‘No Confidence’ Vote Over Brexit Chaos

Update III: The chaos continues.

One source says there aren’t enough letters yet to spark a leadership challenge…but that doesn’t necessarily mean one won’t happen.

iain watson

@iainjwatson

It doesnt appear there are enough letters to spark a challenge to the PM – yet Not to say more arent on their way

While frustration remains high, there hasn’t been an official ERG decision to submit the letters of no confidence.

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

Don’t forget there are lots of tories who just want this over with and who want to back the PM to get Brexit out of the way – but they might not be able to restrain their colleagues who want her out of the way instead

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

Understand there has not yet been an official ERG decision to get group to push button on letters going in, but levels of anger so high that some are doing it anyway – this might be the start of crashing into a leadership contest by accident – impossible to tell yet

Meanwhile, May’s contentious cabinet meeting has entered its fifth hour as ministers are reportedly being allowed to speak at length about the draft deal. According to the Guardian, the delay suggests they have “substantial concerns.”

* * *

Update II: As frustration with Theresa May’s still-unpublished draft Brexit deal intensified, Brexiteer MPs (most of whom are members of the European Research Group faction led by Jacob Reese-Mogg) are sending in letters calling for a ‘no confidence’ vote, which BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg said could happen as soon as Thursday morning.

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

Senior tory tells me Brexiteer anger so high that seems likely there will be a call for no confidence vote tomorrow – letters going in –

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

Senior tory tells me Brexiteer anger so high that seems likely there will be a call for no confidence vote tomorrow – letters going in –

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

No way of knowing exactly how and if this will happen – but hearing same as @SamCoatesTimes – seems some Brexiteers are switching position from wait and see to moving now

Meanwhile, the Europeans are turning up the pressure, threatening to cancel the hoped for Nov. 25 summit if May can’t find support for the deal Wednesday night.

Unsurprisingly, cable is back at lows.

Cable

Since the subject of leadership change is back in the headlines, here’s a roundup of the most popular political figures in the UK (courtesy of Statista).

Pop

Notably, Boris Johnson is the most popular Brexiteer, making him perhaps the most likely candidate to succeed May.

* * *

Update: 10 Downing Street is now saying there will be a short statement Wednesday night following what has become a marathon meeting with May’s cabinet. Though the full press conference has been canceled.

  • BREXIT: NUMBER 10 NOW SAYING PM MAY WILL MAKE SHORT STATEMENT OUTSIDE DOWNING ST WHEN CABINET IS OVER, NICK HURD “MIS-SPOKE”  – SKY CORRESPONDENT

The pound is beginning to erase some of its losses triggered by news of the cancellation.

Six

As MPs from the ERG faction (the group of Brexiteers led by Jacob Reese Mogg who have persistently opposed the deal) say May’s deal in its current form doesn’t have the votes to pass, Downing has pushed back May’s planned statement until tomorrow.

Meanwhile, here’s a glimpse at chaos as journalists struggle to figure out what the hell is going on.

Brexit

And, as this flow chart of the most likely scenarios shows, things are only going to get more complicated from here.

Chart

Across the channel, the group of 27 EU ambassadors has ended their discussion of the draft plan – and reportedly they have been given no indication about the prospect for a deal. Since that meeting has been let out, expect any further leaks about the deal to come from the EU side as hope that May might have given Barnier enough hope to call a broader summit begins to fade.

* * *

Moments after Buzzfeed reported that between eight and ten cabinet ministers stormed into Theresa May’s critical Wednesday afternoon vote-whipping session with senior members of her government…

Alex Wickham

@alexwickham

8-10 ministers went in to cabinet planning to tell May they do not support various aspects of the deal. Some said they would tell her she should go back and try to secure changes

…The BBC has confirmed that Theresa May’s Wednesday night press briefing – which was preemptively scheduled so that she could announce that she had secured cabinet support for her latest draft Brexit deal – has been cancelled. News of the cancellation followed reports from earlier in the afternoon that May’s address, which had initially been planned for 5 pm London Time, would be pushed back by at least two hours as more than a dozen cabinet members had yet to speak.

“I am authorised to inform the House there will be no press statement this evening. There was considerable concern in the House about that happening before the PM came to parliament.”

The pound weakened against the dollar and euro on the news.

GBP

Perhaps it’s time to put the podium away…

 

endLaura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

That lonely microphone has a long time to wait – Cabinet running maybe as much as two hours over

end

end

GERMANY
Germany is the engine for Europe.  The Euro is lower than it ought to be if Germany would be using the Mark by about 10%.  Yet this was not enough to help their economy which shrank for the first time in 3 years by .2% in Q#3
trouble ahead…
(courtesy zerohedge)

German Economy Shrinks For First Time In 3 Years As

Car Production Collapses

After notching a tepid growth rate in the prior quarter, the Bundesbank’s warnings that the economic engine of Europe faltered during the third quarter have proved accurate.

In what was its worst GDP print in three years, Germany saw its economy contract 0.2% in Q3, putting Europe’s strongest economy on the bring of a technical recession and providing the clearest sign yet that economic growth in the euro area stalled just as the ECB was preparing to end its massive bond buying program with an eye toward raising interest rates late next year, according to Bloomberg.

While the hope is that the setback is related largely to new emissions tests that temporarily disrupted car production, the data will feed into fears that the euro area’s expansion has faltered as the Continent faces down risks including Italy’s confrontational populism, the looming Brexit, and the ongoing US trade conflict (which threatens to hammer the German auto industry if Trump changes his mind and decides to pursue tariffs). But analysts have found at least one scapegoat to blame the contraction: according to Bloomberg, Germany’s economic ministers hope the contraction was largely driven by new emissions tests that temporarily disrupted car production. Data from the VDA German carmakers’ association appears to bear that out, as the agency said September production plunged 24% compared with a year earlier.

Cars

At least one analyst said they expect auto production to rebound, as a second quarter of declining growth would be “highly unlikely” especially as that would put Germany in a recession.

“The good news is that the economy will expand at a decent clip so long as auto output doesn’t take another leg down – and that’s highly unlikely. We expect a material rebound as industrial production picks up a bit further through the quarter.”

Germany’s Economy Minister Peter Altmaier echoed that view during a speech in Berlin, saying the GDP figures were “not particularly pleasing but were also not a secret,” and that it’s no catastrophe, we had similar numbers in 2015.” If anything, the data showed us that the expansion “is a tender flower” that must be protected (the implications of which, we imagine, were not lost on Draghi).

“All experts say that the expansion will continue.” “But it also shows that an expansion is a tender flower and that we have to work to make sure it continues.”

Germany’s statistics office doesn’t offer a detailed breakdown of GDP but it did say that exports and private consumption both dropped last quarter while equipment investment and construction rose. The poor print out of Germany was expected to weigh on growth later in the year.

The third-quarter weakness in Germany dragged on the euro area, with data later on Wednesday forecast to show its economy expanded at the weakest pace since 2014. While the ECB has already downplayed the loss of momentum, a year-end revival isn’t assured. Germany’s manufacturing sector – which accounts for almost a quarter of economic output – may feel the pain of trade tensions and China’s slowdown.

So far, at least, the ECB is choosing to see this as a one-off. But if tepid growth persists for another quarter, the market could begin repricing expectations surrounding a late-2019 rate hike.

Any signs of persistent weakness in Germany, which accounts for a third of the euro area economy, would play into the thinking among ECB policy makers as they complete their exit from three years of large-scale bond-buying.

But Chief Economist Peter Praet said while there’s been a slowdown in the euro area, domestic demand remains “robust.”

“Fluctuations in the data can’t hide the fact that the economic upturn in Germany and the euro area remains intact,” Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said on Wednesday.

Germany’s economic ministry is calling for a return to growth in the fourth quarter.

“Indicators for manufacturing and the overall economy, as well as the development in the export environment, underline” a return to growth in Q4. But as auto sales in China and the US weaken, Germany’s production delays might also mask the fact that the underlying global demand for German cars has diminished.

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Israel

Political crisis in Israel as Defense Minister Lieberman resigns his post accusing Netanyahu for “surrendering to Hamas

(courtesy zerohedge)

Political Crisis In Israel: Defense Minister Resigns,

Slams Netanyahu For “Surrendering to Hamas”

“If Lieberman resigns, Netanyahu will dissolve the Knesset” — report senior Israeli government sources following a formal announcement by Lieberman confirming he has quit his post as defense minister.

Minister of Defense Avigdor Lieberman resigned his post after a dramatic escalation in Gaza since Sunday’s controversial Israeli special forces assassination raid on a top Hamas commander, sparking a political crisis in Israel. He made a formal announcement of his exit Wednesday during a televised news conference.

In a rare public fissure over defense strategy Lieberman slammed Prime Minister Netanyahu for “surrendering to Hamas terror” over the prime minister agreeing to a ceasefire deal with Hamas on Tuesday. The ceasefire went into effect after two days of a record number of rockets fired out of Gaza, with the AP reporting 460 rockets and mortars in a 24-hour period, and an Israeli response of pummeling 160 Gaza targets.

Israel’s Haaretz further indicated Lieberman was enraged over a recent statement from Netanyahu’s office, which falsely indicated that he was fully behind the prime minister’s push for a ceasefire with Hamas.

Lieberman has also lately clashed with other officials over allowing Qatar to transfer $15m in humanitarian funds to Gaza, and granting Qatar access to supplying fuel operations in the strip. According to the outgoing defense chief, he was the only minister who took a stance against transferring funds to Hamas in a security cabinet meeting two weeks ago. He’s competed with others within his own governing coalition over who’s more hawkish on Gaza.

“If I were to continue as defense minister I wouldn’t be able to look the residents of the south in the eye,” he said, according to the The Jerusalem Post, referencing Tuesday’s ceasefire with Hamas. “This will severely harm our security in the long term,” he added in comments directed at Netanyahu and his supporters.

“What we’re doing now as a state is buying short-term quiet, with the price being severe long-term damage to national security,” Lieberman said.

Lieberman announced further that his Yisrael Beitenu (Israel Our Home) party, which holds five seats in the 120-seat parliament, would leave the governing coalition and requested that new elections be held: “We should agree on a date for elections as early as possible,” he said.

It’s a major blow to Netanyahu and Israel’s ruling coalition that’s being described as nothing short of a huge crisis. It’s further the domestic blowback of the weekend’s adventurism in Gaza which led to Hamas successfully destroying an IDF bus with an anti-tank rocket.

Elijah J. Magnier@ejmalrai

An anti-tank guided missile (Kornet) and an IED fired by #Gaza #Palestinians hit the heart of @netanyahu and is bringing down his government:#Israel defence minister Liberman resigned.

Hamas meanwhile is claiming victory after breaking news of the defense minister’s impending resignation, calling it in an official statement a “political victory for Gaza.”

Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri described Avigdor Lieberman’s resignation Wednesday as the “recognition of defeat and failure to confront the Palestinian resistance.” He said “Gaza’s steadfastness sent a political shockwave” in Israel.

It’s certainly a rare moment when it’s the Palestinian side that can sit back and watch political chaos unfold in Tel Aviv. It’s also rare to see Netanyahu get out-hawked by his own former allies and defense officials.

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

A terrific commentary from John Mauldin explaining the world wide debt and how this debt is growing 10x faster than GDP. He explains that this will not end well.

(courtesy John Mauldin/Forbes)

Mauldin: A Worldwide Debt-Default Is A Real Possibility

Authored by John Mauldin via Forbes.com,

Is debt good or bad? The answer is “Yes.”

Debt is future spending pulled forward in time. It lets you buy something now for which you otherwise don’t have cash yet.

Whether it’s wise or not depends on what you buy. Debt to educate yourself so you can get a better job may be a good idea. Borrowing money to finance your vacation? Probably not.

The problem is that many people, businesses, and governments borrow because they can. It’s been possible in the last decade only because central banks made it so cheap.

It was rational in that respect. But it is growing less so as the central banks start to tighten.

Earlier this year, I wrote a series of articles (synopsis and links here) predicting a debt “train wreck” and eventual liquidation. I dubbed it “The Great Reset.” I estimated we have another year or two before the crisis becomes evident.

Now I’m having second thoughts. Recent events tell me the reckoning could be closer than I thought just a few months ago.

Debt Doesn’t Fuel Growth Anymore

Central banks enable debt because they think it will generate economic growth. Sometimes it does. The problem is they create debt with little regard for how it will be used.

That’s how we get artificial booms and subsequent busts. We are told not to worry about absolute debt levels so long as the economy is growing in line with them.

That makes sense. A country with a larger GDP can carry more debt. But that is increasingly not what is happening.

Let me give you two data points.

Hoisington Investment Management’s Lacy Hunt tracks data that shows debt is losing its ability to stimulate growth. In 2017, one dollar of non-financial debt generated only 40 cents of GDP in the US. It’s even less elsewhere. This is down from more than four dollars of growth for each dollar of debt 50 years ago.

This has seriously worsened over the last decade. China’s debt productivity dropped 42.9% between 2007 and 2017. That was the worst among major economies, but others lost ground, too. All the developed world is pushing on the same string and hoping for results.

Now, if you are used to using debt to stimulate growth, and debt loses its capacity to do so, what happens next? You guessed it: The brilliant powers-that-be add even more debt.

Here’s How Much Debt We Actually Have

This is classic addiction behavior. You have to keep raising the dose to get the same high.

But centuries of history show that every prior debt run-up eventually took its toll on the economy. There is always a Day of Reckoning.

The US economy is so huge and powerful that our current $24.5 trillion government debt (including state and local) could easily grow to $40 trillion before we meet that day. We are one recession away from having a $30 trillion U.S. government debt total.

It will happen seemingly overnight. And deficits will stay well above $1 trillion per year every year after that, not unlike now.

Even though a budget deficit is under $800 billion this year, we added over $1 trillion of actual debt. That is due to “off budget” items that Congress thinks shouldn’t be part of the normal budgetary process.

It includes things like Social Security and Medicare They vary from time to time and year to year and can be anywhere from $200 billion to almost $500 billion.

And here’s the point that you need to understand. The U.S. Treasury borrows those dollars and it goes on the total debt taxpayers owe. The true deficit that adds to the debt is actually much higher than the number you see in the news.

Household and corporate debt is growing fast, too.  And not just in the U.S.

Here’s a note from Economic Cycle Research Institute’s Lakshman Achuthan:

Notably, the combined debt of the US, Eurozone, Japan, and China has increased more than ten times as much as their combined GDP [growth] over the past year.

Yes, you read that right. In the last year, the world’s largest economies are generating debt 10X faster than economic growth. Adding debt at that pace, if it continues, will boost the debt-to-GDP ratio at an alarming rate.

Lakshman continues.

Remarkably, then, the global economy—slowing in sync despite soaring debt—finds itself in a situation reminiscent of the Red Queen Effect we referenced 15 years ago, when tax cuts boosted the US budget deficit much more than GDP. As the Red Queen says to Alice in Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking Glass, “Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”

This Won’t End Well

I am trying to imagine a scenario where this ends in something less than chaos and crisis. The best I can conceive is a decade-long (and possibly more) stagnation while the debt gets liquidated.

But realistically, that won’t happen because debtors won’t let it. And they outnumber lenders. For this reason, something like “the Great Reset” will happen first.

The rational course would be to delay the inevitable as long as possible. Yet in the U.S. we’re rushing it.

*  *  *

Get a Bird’s-Eye View of the Economy with Thoughts from the Frontline. My weekly newsletter is a must-read for investors who want to find out about the trends to watch out for. Get it free in your inbox

end
This is just the beginning as we witness a total divided Congress.  Now Democrats are demanding changes to NAFTA 2.0
(courtesy zerohedge)

Peso, Loonie Tumble After Dems Demand Changes To NAFTA 2.0

The Mexican Peso and Canadian loonie are tumbling after New Jersey Democrat, Rep. Bill Pascrell – who’s in line to chair the House Ways and Means Trade subcommittee – said the USMCA trade agreement between the U.S., Mexico and Canada is dead unless President Trump renegotiates it.

“If he wants a Democratic votes they need to be not only changes in the legislation but more enforcement,” Pascrell says.

And the reaction was swift…

Pascrell added that “there will not be a quick solution” to USMCA issues.

 end

7  OIL ISSUES

Graham Summers points out that we first had the emerging nations get clobbered due to the scarcity of dollars.  Now oil “gets it” because of worldwide lack of demand and scarcity of dollars

Next up will be the USA markets

(courtesy Graham Summers)

 

Oil Just “Got It” Next Up is US Stocks

As I warned yesterday, the markets are entering “liquidation mode”

Earlier this year it was Emerging Markets.

Yesterday it was Oil.

And very soon it will be US stocks.

If you are not already preparing for this, NOW is the time to do so.

end

Canada is getting killed as oil has collapsed to just above 15 dollars because local production in the west remains landlocked and the court decision to block the Trans Canada Pipeline/keystone project did not help.  Canada has a poor Prime Minister who has difficulty in understanding the all important issues

(courtesy zerohedge)

Gartman Is Shocked By What Is Going On With

Canadian Oil

Yesterday we remarked that while the pain for US energy traders has been palpable, it is nothing compared to the mass hysteria taking place in Canada, where the price of Western Canada Select oil has collapsed just above $15 as far too much local production remains landlocked, and in desperate search of any buyer.

zerohedge@zerohedge

Oil traders having a bad day? You could be in Canada…

68 people are talking about this

Today, none other than “world renowned commodity guru” Dennis Gartman – who correctly picked the exact moment to advise his clients to “short this rally” and is still short even as Marko Kolanovic has been repeatedly urging JPM clients to triple down on the S&P where he saw nothing but smooth sailing  – picks up on this theme, and in his latest letter to clients expresses his shock at the collapse observed in local prices.

We excerpt from his latest letter below.

IF YOU THINK THAT WTI AND/OR BRENT CRUDES ARE CHEAP… then consider for a moment what is happening in Canada these days where Western Canada Select crude (WSC as it is always referred to) trades below $16/barrel or a stunning $43/barrel  “discount” to WTI! WCS is a “heavy” crude type with an API of about 20 while WTI is a “light” crude with an API “gravity” rating  near 40 and so by definition given the greater difficulty in refining WCS compared to WTI it has always sold at a discount to WTI. It had to; there had been little choice.

Historically… and in this instance we mean the past ten years… WCS has tended to trade on the order of $17- $22/barrel discount to WTI although it fell to nearly a $40/barrel discount back in ‘13 when a massive short covering rally in the crude futures sent prices of WTI and Brent futures soaring. Further, in ‘15 and on into the autumn of last year the discount narrowed toward $15/barrel and remains relatively steady there until early this year.

That narrower discount should have held, for the US refineries were refitting themselves to take on “heavier” crude types coming down from Canada and from the Bakken. Instead, they discount has grown steadily as Canadian bitumen production has increased in anticipation of pipelines being constructed to take that increased production south to the US and/or west to the Vancouver area for export. However, the First Nations groups in western Canada, aligned with the environmentalist groups that protest any and all use of fossil fuels, were able to suspend the pipelines heading west to Vancouver, while environmentalists, farmers and First Nations groups in Canada and the US were able to delay… now seemingly indefinitely… the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline. WCS crude is literally trapped at its production sites, with railroad tankers over-the-road trucks being used to carry WCS southward to the US. Oh, and the environmentalists/farmers/First Nations are opposed to the use of railroads and trucks too for safety and environmental reasons also.

The single judge’s decision last week to delay any further work on the Keystone XL pipeline… construction that had been approved by the Trump Administration… has only served to send WCS to a further, deeper and perhaps semi-permanent, historic discount to WTI. Trucks capable of carrying crude oil are in uncommonly and increasingly short supply thus widening WCS’ discount to WTI, and so too are tanker rail cars. Truck drivers too are in short supply while trains are now being used to take grains from the grain production areas that so dominate the middle of the North American continent to the export facilities on the West Coast, the Gulf of Mexico and even from some of the export facilities here on the East Coast, thus making rail movement of crude more and more expensive and sending WCS’ discount to these historic lows.

WCS is not alone in suffering. Crude produced in the fecund Permian Basin now sells at a wide and widening discount to WTI crude futures for it too suffers from a shortage of pipelines, rail and truck facilities. Last year and earlier this, crude coming out of the Permian Basin tended to sell at $7-$10/barrel discount to nearby WTI futures; that has widened to $20/barrel presently, reflecting higher transmission and/or transportation costs of getting that crude out of the Basin and moving it on the Houston/Galveston/Port Arthur where it can be loaded aboard ships and moved into export trade. Indeed, bids for crude oil at the Houston/Galveston/Port Arthur export facilities are now at large… and growing… premiums to WTI! Crude is needed there and so “Houston” crude is backwardated to WTI futures and those who have fortunately been “Long of Houston/short of Midland” crude in the spot market has made enormous profits; those who’ve been on the other side of trade have lost billions.

This then brings us to the harsh financial realities of Canada and its oil industry for as the spread between WCS crude and WTI futures widens to these historically wide… and we hope eventually remediable… discounts, Canada is losing perhaps $100 million dollars/day in revenues! This has to stop of course, but the decision by lone U.S. district court Judge Brian Morris … an Obama appointment of course… to deny any further construction on the Keystone XL pipeline has served to suspend further building until at least mid-year next year and thus extended completion of the pipeline until mid-‘20 at the earliest [Ed. Note: Judge Morris might have been appointed by President Obama but from what we have read he is hardly a left-of-center ideologue for he was a celebrated football player for Stanford where he graduated from and then went to law school. He clerked for US Supreme Court Justice Rehnquist, who was hardly a leftist and served for years on the Montana Supreme Court before being raised to the Federal district court there in Montana, writing some of the courts more conservative decisions.].

Who are the winners here… indeed if there are any winners? Perhaps it is Kinder Morgan and TransCanada who both had thrown in the proverbial towels last year on their projects in question that would have carried crude out of Alberta with the former’s to have carried WCS westward to the export facilities in and around Vancouver and with the latter having canceled its proposed pipelines eastward out of Alberta [Ed. Note: In the case of the former Kinder Morgan facility, it was rather famously bought by the Trudeau government forC$4.5 billion, putting that government in opposition to itself! We are left to wonder when Ottawa will actually be forced into selling its participation back to Kinder Morgan… or to some other oil industry company… for half or less than what it paid initially?]. Kinder Morgan and TransCanada… the latter for whom we’ve had the distinct honor and privilege of speaking for several times in the past decade!… knew, apparently, that as in any bad trade the first loss is the cheapest.

In the long run, we have to believe that wiser, better, cooler minds will prevail; that Judge Morris’ decision on the Keystone XL pipeline will be overturned by a higher court; that the eco-radical/First Nation alliances will prove ill-advised and that the pipelines in question will be built and that WCS will return to a far more normal $17-$12/barrel discount to WTI. Indeed, at some point in the long distant future WCS may actually trade to a premium to WTI. But certainly for the next few months and perhaps for the next few years the discount is likely to remain at $25/barrel or more discount. Once again, the facts are the facts.

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

 

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1249 UP .0026 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL RED EXCEPT LONDON

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 114.02  UP 0.325  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2923 DOWN   0.0068  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3238  DOWN .0006 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 72 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1262; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 19.20 POINTS OR 0.86%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 138.44 POINTS OR 0.54% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  1.69% /EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED EXCEPT LONDON

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED UP 35.96 POINTS OR 0.16%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED RED EXCEPT LONDON

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 138.49 POINTS OR 0.54% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 19.20       POINTS OR 0.86%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.69%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 35.96 POINTS OR 0.16%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1201.95

silver:$13.99

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.14% !!! DOWN 0 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.35 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 97.23 DOWN 7  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.96% UP 1    in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.11%  DOWN 0  BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.62% up 1  IN basis point yield from TUESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.49 up 4   POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 187 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.40%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 3.09% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM.

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1312 UP .0005 or 5 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 113.69 down .106 OR 11 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3023 UP .0009( POUND UP 9 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 17 basis points to 1.3240

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was ROSE BY 5 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1312

The Yen ROSE to 113.69 for a GAIN of 11 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND GAINED 9 basis points, trading at 1.3023/

The Canadian dollar LOST 16 basis points to 1.3240

 

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.9505-  ON SHORE  (YUAN UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9463(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.4795

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.11%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 3.13 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.36 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.98 DOWN 32 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 19.97 POINTS OR 0.28%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 59.67 POINTS  OR 0.52%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 33.00 POINTS OR 0.65%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 38.80 POINTS OR 0.42%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN: 149.05 POINTS OR 0.78%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 56.69 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 66.78 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    67.15  THE CROSS LOWER BY .92 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER by 92 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.4795 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.40 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:56/14

 

BRENT:66.02

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.12%..

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.37%/.

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1315 ( UP 5 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:113.60 DOWN .020 (YEN UP 2 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.93 DOWN 37 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2995 DOWN 20 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.4642

the Russian rouble:  67.05 UP 102 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 102 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3244 DOWN 20 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9505  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9441 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.40%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN 205.99 POINTS OR 0.81%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 64.48  points or 0.90% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  21.10  CLOSED UP  1.08

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.616%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/SMALL jump today

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

Bonds & Bullion Bid, Banks & Bitcoin Battered, But Black-Gold Bounced

“Dow desperately seeking support at 25,000. Beyond this land lie dragons.” – Art Cashin

Dow lost its 200DMA and back below 25,000…

But judging from the constant stream of asset-gatherers and commission-takers on CNBC this is a healthy retracement, a dip to buy, nothing but a fleshwound…

 

 

China stocks dipped unexpectedly last night after two days of sheer panic buying (not helped by some ugly retail sales data)…

 

China stocks dipped unexpectedly last night after two days of sheer panic buying (not helped by some ugly retail sales data)…

 

Another roller-coaster day for European stocks after the German economy shrank…

 

And a roller-coaster day of crushed dreams and dashed hopes in the US too as the machines tried to revive stocks… twice… but failed… twice… (Trannies managed gains on the day, Nasdaq was the biggest loser)

 

Futures show US stocks sold during Asia session, bid during EU session into US open, then dumped into the 2pmET witching hour of margin calls – panic-bid back to unchanged… then dumped into the close…

 

Bank stocks were battered after Maxine Waters spoiled the deregulation party… (GS down 4th day in a row)

 

AAPL dumped again for the 5th day in a row – back below its 200DMA – and into bear market territory…

 

Treasury yields tumbled into and after the European close after ramping higher into the US open overnight… the belly of the curve notably outperformed the long-end…

 

Notably, 5Y broke below 3.00%

 

And 7Y yields tested down to 3.00%…

 

And Inflation breakevens continue to catch down to crude’s carnage…

 

The dollar fell for the 2nd day in a row (accelerating as cable rallied late on)…back in the red for the week…

NOTE – The Dollar Index broke below the key 97 figure today.

Cable was chaotic today but tumbled late on as PM May canceled her supposed Brexit victory speech…then confusion reigned…then she actually appeared and cable jumped back to the highs of the day on comments that she has a deal to sell to EU27…

 

Cryptos dumped into the European close…

 

With Bitcoin crashing to 13-month lows below $6000…

Before we move on from Bitcoin, this was an odd relationship today as bond yields tumbled into the EU close so Bitcoin fell with them…

 

Dollar weakness prompted some gains across the commodity space…

 

WTI bounced – breaking its record 12-day losing streak…but note that the bounce to tag $57 was fading into the close (ahead of API data tonight)

 

Nattie continued its fund-crushing surge higher, smashing every NG-WTI pairs trade in its way…

 

Gold and Silver bounced back through critical price levels…

 

But while gold bounced in dollars, it was very ‘stable’ in yuan…

 

Finally, we note that the median US stock (as inferred from the Value Line Geometric Index) is now back to critical support – unchanged since the DotCom and Financial Crisis highs…

 

 

 

 

 

market trading

ANOTHER DEAD CAT BOUNCE;

(courtesy zerohedge)_

 

Another Dead-Cat-Bounce Dies

Apple back below its 200-day moving average…after another downgrade.

Goldman in the red for the 4th day in a row…

And the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq are all now in the red after such a hopeful open…

Having done nothing but dump from the open…

 

end

PG and E has been pegged for starting the huge campfire in Northern California and much of their infrastructure there has been destroyed. P G and E plummets this morning after drawing down on its revolving credit

(courtesy zerohedge)

PG&E Plummets After Drawing Down Billions On Its Revolvers

Two days after California utilities PG&E and Edison crashed, losing a third of their market cap in 48 hours amid investor fears over their exposure to the devastating California fires which are still raging, moments ago PG&E stock tumbled over 20% in premarket trading after the company disclosed it has fully drawn down its revolving credit facilities, in anticipation of soaring liquidity needs.

In an 8-K filing this morning, PG&E and its subsidiary, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, announced they had drawn the full $3.3 billion available to them in aggregate borrowings on their revolving credit facilities as of November 13.

With these borrowings, PG&E Corporation’s and the Utility’s balance of cash and cash equivalents increased to approximately $356 million and $3.1 billion, respectively, at November 13, 2018.  PG&E Corporation and the Utility made the borrowings under their respective revolving credit facilities for greater financial flexibility.  PG&E Corporation and the Utility plan to invest the cash proceeds from the borrowings in highly liquid short-term investments and to use them for general corporate purposes, including upcoming debt maturities.

California authorities have been investigating PG&E equipment as a possible cause of the deadliest wildfire in state history, burning about 150 miles (240 kilometers) northeast of San Francisco. The blaze has killed at least 48 people and destroyed 130,000 acres.

This is how PG&E explained the source of the Camp Fire:

On November 8, 2018, a wildfire began near the city of Paradise, Butte County, California (the “Camp Fire”), located in the service territory of the Utility.  The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection’s (“Cal Fire”) Camp Fire Incident Report dated November 13, 2018, 7:00 a.m. Pacific Time (the “incident report”), indicated that the Camp Fire had consumed 125,000 acres and was 30% contained.  Cal Fire estimates in the incident report that the Camp Fire will be fully contained on November 30, 2018.  In the incident report, Cal Fire reported 42 fatalities.  The incident report also indicates the following: structures threatened, 15,500; single residences destroyed, 6,522; single residences damaged, 75; multiple residences destroyed, 85; commercial structures destroyed, 260; commercial structures damaged, 32; and other minor structures destroyed, 772.

While the cause of the Camp Fire is still under investigation, PG&E warns that if its equipment is determined to be the cause, “the Utility could be subject to significant liability in excess of insurance coverage that would be expected to have a material impact on PG&E Corporation’s and the Utility’s financial condition, results of operations, liquidity, and cash flows.”

Susquehanna estimated Monday that the fire, which wiped out the town of Paradise last week, could cost PG&E as much as $5 billion. PG&E already faced up to $17.3 billion in potential liabilities for 2017’s Northern California wildfires, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimate. Those blazes killed 44 people.

The news sent PG&E stock plunging another 20% this morning, sending it to the lowest level since 2003.

end
The bond king, Gundlach has spoken:  with the collapse of GE, this is not an isolated event…there is going to be other investment grade credit operations plummet in price…there is no corner to hide
(courtesy zerohedge)

“There Is No Corner To Hide”: $100 Billion Fund Manager Warns Credit Rout Is Just Starting

One day after Jeff Gundlach warned in his latest webcast that much more pain is coming for the corporate bond market, echoing a similar warning made just hours earlier by Scott Minerd, who cautioned that “the selloff in GE is not an isolated event. More investment grade credits to follow. The slide and collapse in investment grade debt has begun”…

Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

The selloff in GE is not an isolated event. More investment grade credits to follow. The slide and collapse in investment grade debt has begun.

313 people are talking about this

… it was the turn of another fund manager to join the growing chorus of warnings about the coming credit rout.

Jason Shoup, head of global credit strategy at Legal & General Investment Management America which manages $186 billion including $100 billion in fixed income, told Bloomberg that rising rates, fading stimulus, weaker earnings and a coming tide of rating downgrades means that the worst year for investment grade in a decade is just the start of the bond slump and align to ensure that 2019 will be a tough year for US corporate credit.

“It just feels like a much more risky proposition than it did a year ago,” Shoup told Bloomberg in a phone interview: “There really is no corner in which you can obviously hide.

While the fixed income manager expects a modest rebound in high grade bonds if issuance slows, Asian investors stop selling and stock markets stabilize, Shoup still sees next year as “dicey.”

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the second half of 2019 really poses some significant challenges and could result in wider spreads,” Shoup said. “Without that central bank support and transitioning off the fiscal stimulus, our long-term outlook for investment grade is definitely on the more bearish side over the last two to three years.”

Courtesy of Bloomberg, here are some more highlights from the interview:

Slowing Growth

  • As the Federal Reserve reduces its balance sheet and higher rates weigh, the economic boost from U.S. tax cuts should fade, Shoup said.
  • “The contribution of fiscal stimulus to growth has to slow. It’s not like we’re going to do another tax cut on the same order of magnitude that we once got,” he said.
  • That will slow growth — possibly by at least 1 percentage point after the second quarter — which along with rising input costs fueled by trade wars, should have a negative impact on corporate profits.

Downgrade Risk

  • That could mean billions of dollars in BBB rated bonds will be cut to junk.
  • “The concern is that companies can get behind on that deleveraging path and if profits really do slow meaningfully over the next 12 to 18 months, you would think that more and more of those companies are going to get behind and be subject to potential downgrade risk or at least repricing risk,” Shoup said.
  • As General Electric Co. trades more like high yield, Anheuser-Busch is also a concern, Shoup said.
  • “If Anheuser-Busch loses its Moody’s rating — which we think is likely — do we get a repeat of GE, in terms of Anheuser-Busch? At the moment I would say Asia has been selling GE risk but has been willing to buy Anheuser-Busch risk, so it seems less likely,” Shoup said.

Liquidity Wildcard

  • Shoup said he expects less liquidity in the market will cause more volatility.
  • Secondary liquidity is worse than it was during the last big credit sell-off at the beginning of 2016. The shape of the yield curve has made dealers reluctant to hold bonds because of the negative carry, just as foreigners may be becoming more reluctant to buy, according to Shoup.
  • “Asia and the foreign bid has been such an important component to demand in the credit markets in the last few years. Any sniff that they’re going to turn into a seller of a certain name has this potential to trade an exaggerated move wider,” he said.

Diamonds in the Rough

  • Shoup said he sees potential opportunities in energy pipeline and financial sector bonds. Temporary increases in leverage by Master Limited Partnerships, so that holding companies can buy out operating units, make those bonds attractive, he said.
  • “The Williams, the Energy Transfer Partners — those are companies that trade on the riskier side in terms of spread and we think that that will continue to outperform,” Shoup said, adding that his firm has a strong conviction about the trade.
  • Legal & General also likes banks, particularly after they failed to issue new debt following earnings. Shoup said he is “cautious” on the pharmaceutical sector, and is awaiting more mergers and acquisitions.
  • Underscoring its defensive positioning, Legal & General has a higher than average allocation to cash and Treasuries, he said.

market data/

Consumer price gains the weakest since February

(courtesy zerohedge)

Core Consumer Price Gains Weakest Since February As New Car Prices Slide

After producer prices printed hotter than expected (surging most MoM in six years), hawkish fears were modestly allayed as consumer prices rose 2.5% YoY (as expected), a small rebound from September’s 2.3%.

Headline CPI up 2.5% YoY…

But core CPI slowed to +2.1% YoY – its weakest since February and below expectations of a 2.2% rise.

 

The October advance in the CPI benefited from some bounce-back from September: used-car prices rose 2.6 percent, the most since 2009, after posting the biggest monthly drop in 15 years. The measure has been volatile since the Labor Department changed its methodology earlier in 2018. New car prices, by contrast, weighed on inflation in October, falling 0.2 percent from the prior month, the biggest drop since April.

Energy prices rose 2.4 percent from the previous month, while food costs fell 0.1 percent.

The shelter index rose 0.2 percent in October, the same increase as in September. The rent index rose 0.2 percent and the index for owners’ equivalent rent advanced 0.3 percent.

Policy makers and economists look at core inflation as a better indicator of underlying trends because the broader figures are subject to bigger swings from energy prices, and given the fact that they remain above the 2% level, it would appear The Fed is guns-hot for a Dec rate hike no matter what.

 

end

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

Peter Schiff correctly states that a divided Congress will mean even bigger deficits

(courtesy Mac Slavo/SHFTPLan.com/Peter Schiff)

Peter Schiff Warns A Divided Congress Means Even Bigger Deficits

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Economic advisor Peter Schiff has long been warning of the false stability and phony prosperity we are seeing the markets. He’s now saying that since the elections, it is about to get much worse, as a divided Congress means even bigger deficits.

It’s difficult to imagine the United States government spending even more money than they already do.  But Schiff says this is the new reality under a politically divided Congress, according to Seeking Alpha.  The blue wave, which turned out to be more like a blue ripple, will force gridlock in the government, which is great news for anyone favoring smaller government and less interference in their everyday lives by the sociopaths claiming the right to rule over them.  But a divided government also means larger deficits because Democrats don’t want to do anything about the government’s spending problem.

Peter believes that president Donald Trump will actually do substantial harm to the economy by working with House Democrats to pass some kind of economic stimulus in 2019.  That major disaster will see the economy begin to slow down.

I think the next fiscal stimulus is going to be more of a spending stimulus – an infrastructure plan. Just more money spent to kind of prime the pump Keynesian-style.” Peter Schiff

This wouldn’t be at all out of character for the Trump, either. He talked frequently about an enormous infrastructure plan during his campaign. He certainly wouldn’t have much trouble convincing Democrats that this level of spending is a good idea. The Republican-controlled Senate might be a little tougher sell, but Trump likely raised his stock among Republicans with the elections and will probably have even more pull than he did during his first two years.

I think Trump is going to try to position himself as a guy that can cross the aisle and work with the other side, especially going into the 2020 elections… so we’re probably going to get big increases in government spending.” –Peter Schiff

That’s horrific news considering the Federal Reserve has plans to continue to raise interest rates too. Schiff also said that he feels that there may some middle-class tax cuts to help relieve some of the economic pain, but those won’t impact the broader economy.

“In other words, these tax cuts won’t even create the appearance of growing the economy. They’re simply going to grow the debt and lead to higher inflation. It is going to feed the stagflationary fire that will be burning. This is going to be negative for the dollar. This is going to be positive for gold. This is going to be very positive for investments outside the United States.” –Peter Schiff

Schiff also warns that the household debt situation, which is worsening in the United States, will play a role in the next economic downturn.

END
This is a case worth watching:  The state of Maryland is suing Whittaker that he does not have the authority to act as Attorney General.  The case revolves around Obamacare
a good read…
(courtesy zerohedge)

Maryland Sues To Remove Whitaker As Acting Attorney General

Will the real attorney general please stand up?

As was widely expected following the publication of a New York Times story outlining the state’s case, Maryland has challenged President Trump’s appointment of acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker in federal court, arguing that Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein should instead be elevated to replace Sessions.

In effect, the state is using an unusual legal maneuver to force federal judge Ellen L. Hollander of the Federal District Court for the District of Maryland – a 2010 Obama appointee – to decide who is the legitimate attorney general. Two months ago, the state’s attorney general sued Jeff Sessions in his official capacity as AG, seeking a declaration from the court that ObamaCare is, in fact, constitutional, even without the tax penalty component, which was repealed by Congress. The lawsuit was an attempt to stop a federal judge in Texas from throwing out the law in its entirety.

Whitaker

Now, the state is asking Hollander to clarify who is the real attorney general so this person can stand in for Sessions as the object of Maryland’s ObamaCare lawsuit. Because the government’s enforcement of ObamaCare is set to change on Jan. 1 to reflect the removal of the tax penalty, the state is demanding that Hollander make this crucial ruling immediately to stop Whitaker from making illegitimate policy decisions as head of the DOJ.

This will force Hollander to rule on whether Trump’s invocation of the Federal Vacancies Reform Act, a 1998 law which stipulates that a president may temporarily fill a vacant position that normally requires Senate confirmation with any senior official who has been in the department for at least 90 days. By appointing Whitaker, Trump overruled the natural line of succession at the DOJ, which would have installed Rosenstein as the acting AG until another AG candidate could win approval from the Senate.

Democrats have slammed Trump’s decision to invoke the Vacancies Reform Act, which he previously used to successfully replace outgoing CFPB Director (and failed gubernatorial candidate) Richard Cordray with OMB head Mick Mulvaney. Chuck Schumer, the leader of Senate Democrats, has demanded that Trump explain why he installed Whitaker instead of handing the reins to Rosenstein.

Meanwhile, Dianne Feinstein is calling for the Senate Judiciary Committee to demand Sessions and Whitaker testify about the circumstances surrounding Sessions’ ouster and Whitaker’s ascension, according to the Hill.

The hearing is needed, Feinstein said, to “ensure that he will take no action to restrict or otherwise interfere with the Special Counsel’s work.”

Whitaker has so far ignored Democrats’ demands that he recuse himself from the Mueller probe, though he has said he wouldn’t act to terminate it. GOP Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said he would block any bills aimed at preserving the Mueller probe.

So, as the next round of Mueller indictments reportedly looms, all eyes will be on Maryland to see if a federal judge could upend the DOJ depth chart, unleashing line-of-succession chaos that could persist until Trump secures a replacement.

 
END
The new Malaysian Prime Minister fumes that his country has “obviously been cheated by Goldman Sachs” They are asking for a full refund on the fraud
(courtesy zerohedge)

Malaysian Prime Minister Fumes “Obviously We Have Been Cheated By Goldman Sachs”

Goldman Sachs famously avoided liability after the Libyan Investment Authority accused the bank of squandering more than $1.5 billion belonging to the country’s sovereign wealth fund after the bank plied employees of the fund with “hookers and five-star hotels” before losing all of their money in complex derivatives trades. But as the DOJ ramps up an investigation into the bank’s role in the sprawling 1MDB scandal (the federal government believes Goldman helped now-jailed former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak siphon $4.5 billion from the fund), it’s looking like the bank (and possibly its ex-CEO Lloyd Blankfein, whose involvement in the scandal was recently revealed by Bloomberg) may not escape culpability this time.

Malay

Yesterday, Goldman shares cemented their largest two-day drop since 2010, crashing to a two-year low after Malaysian Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng demanded a “full refund” of the $600 million in fees that Goldman charged Malaysia for the three 1MDB bond offerings underwritten by the bank. Eng also demanded that Goldman repay the “interest-rate differential” that Malaysia paid, which was 100 basis points over the benchmark rate. Goldman has argued that it demanded such high fees because it took many of the unrated bonds on to its balance sheet, increasing its exposure, because Malaysia said it wanted the money “right away” for “development projects”. Of course, Goldman had sold the local currency bonds long before 1MDB defaulted in April 2016.

And on Tuesday, Malaysia turned up the heat when the country’s 93-year-old Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad accused Goldman bankers during an interview with CNBC of “cheating” Malaysia (though he also said the country wanted to “see the results” of the DOJ’s investigation).

“There is evidence that Goldman Sachs has done things that are wrong,” Mahathir said.

“Obviously we have been cheated through the compliance by Goldman Sachs people,” he said, without specifying details.

The bank’s compliance controls “don’t work very well,” he added.

A Goldman spokesman in Asia declined to comment on Mahathir’s comments.

Meanwhile, Mahathir’s appointed successor Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim told the Malaysian parliament that it needed to take “more aggressive measures” to reclaim the fees and losses “due to the effects on Malaysia’s image”.

Former Prime Minister Najib Razak will get a fair trial: Malaysia’s Mahathir from CNBC.

Speaking on Tuesday, Lim reiterated that Malaysia wanted to reclaim the fees paid to Goldman Sachs, and added that the country would seek damages as well.

“The Malaysian government will want to reclaim all the fees paid, as well as all the losses including the interest rate differential,” he said.

Lim did not say how Malaysia would pursue repayment, other than that he would leave it up to the country’s attorney general. Though Reuters reported back in June that the country was considering asking the DOJ to force Goldman to repay Malaysia.

Considering that the DOJ has already seized hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of assets allegedly purchased with stolen money, most of which were purportedly bought by Jho Low, the free-spending Malaysian financier at the center of the scandal, it’s very possible that the DOJ might honor this request. But with prosecutors reportedly taking a close look at the role played by the bank’s former co-head of investment banking Andrea Vella, per the FT, one thing is clear: This is far from over. And although Goldman has set aside hundreds of millions of dollars in legal reserves, investors will increasingly find themselves asking: Will this be enough?

END

The “Amazon effect” in full bloom:  now mall owners are handing over the keys to lenders before they even default..(courtesy zerohedge)

 

“Things Are Getting Worse”: Mall Owners Hand Over The Keys To Lenders Before They Even Default

For years, traditional malls around the United States have been in a state of partial or full collapse thanks to “the Amazon effect”: deteriorating conditions, bankrupt or cash-bleeding tenants, with some even transforming into homeless shelters as the retail industry “evolves”.

In other words, as Bloomberg writes, “things are getting worse for malls across America.” So much worse, in fact, that their owners are simply walking away early from struggling properties, a trend that has sparked fears of material losses among mortgage bond investors.

Investors in and lenders to malls across America are bracing for the fallout from the disappearance of the brick and mortar sub-sector of the industry. With the recent bankruptcy of retail giant Sears, mall operators are continuing to see accelerating defaults in the wake of numerous other retail bankruptcies from stores like Bon-Ton, Wet Seal and RadioShack, and many others, resulting in abrupt declines in rental and lease payments.

And amid the ongoing collapse in what was once a staple source of shopping and entertainment for “middle America”, many mall owners are simply turning over the keys to lenders even before their lease is over, according to Bloomberg. That puts the loan servicing companies in a position to either try to run the properties themselves or turn around and sell them. If they can’t make the debt payments, the new owners of the commercial mortgage backed securities in turn end up facing the consequences themselves.

While much of the noise surrounding the “big mall short” which dominated the 2017 airwaves has faded, the number of mall loans issued since the financial crisis that identified as “highest risk” has almost tripled to 29 this year. And the consequences are becoming painfully visible. The Washington Prime Group REIT last month simply gave up on two malls in Kansas where the loans had either defaulted or were close to default. This month, Pennsylvania REIT announced that it left a mall in Wilkes-Barre that also had a loan ready for default. The PA REIT is considering abandoning another mall in Wisconsin for the same reason.

Ben Easterlin, head of commercial lending at Atlanta-based Angel Oak Companies, told Bloomberg that many small town malls are no longer being included in CMBS packages. “It’s easier to value a mall in L.A. than it is in Sheboygan,” he said. “We talk about these malls all day long. We have not seen any of these malls in a CMBS lately and don’t expect to, frankly.

Meanwhile, even though the delinquency rate right in the commercial mortgage backed securities market is at post-crisis lows now, the pain will likely take a couple of years to show up due to maturities that won’t occur for several years.

Adding to the pain, stores leaving these malls often cause a waterfall effect because of co-tenancy clauses that are included in many small mall leases. These clauses mean that if there aren’t enough tenants in a mall at a given time, other tenants have the option to leave. So when a “major” anchor-store company – like Sears – closes a bunch of stores, it can triggers clauses releasing other stores from their contractual leases, further hitting the mall and its creditors.

Still, not all investors see this as Armageddon.

The Galleria at Pittsburgh Mills was seen as an investment opportunity by New York-based Namdar Realty Group and Mason Asset Management, who bought the property for $11.35 million earlier this year after it was once valued at $190 million in 2006, before it was packaged into a commercial mortgage backed securities pool.

Steve Plenge, managing principal of Pacific Retail, is another optimist who sees today’s climate as opportunistic. His firm has taken over at least two malls that have been returned to lenders after defaults. He told Bloomberg: “we think this sector, the servicing business, will get bigger for us. There will be more defaults, more foreclosures.”

We agree. In fact, at the beginning of October we noted that mall vacancies had hit 7 year highs. And, according to a WSJ report, the average rent for malls in the third-quarter fell 0.3% to $43.25 a square foot. This is down from $43.36 in the second quarter and is the first time this number has fallen sequentially since 2011, according to research firm Reis, Inc.

At the same time, vacancy rates are on the ascent, rising to 9.1% in the third quarter from 8.6% in the second quarter, and the highest they’ve been since the third quarter of 2011, when these rates hit 9.4%. 

Barbara Denham, senior economist with Reis, told the Journal: “The retail sector is still correcting”. And, as long as ever more people continue to migrate to online retailers, it will be for years.

END
This is not good: The Southern California fire (Woolsey fire) which has coated the area with an apocalyptic orange glow may have released radioactive particles and toxic chemicals into the air after scorching the land on closed dwon government weapons testing facility in Simi Hills.
(courtesy zerohedge)

SoCal Fire May Have Ejected “Incredibly Dangerous” Radioactive Particles Into The Atmosphere

The 95,000 acre Woolsey fire which has coated Southern California with an apocalyptic orange glow may have released a toxic stew of radioactive particles and toxic chemicals into the air, after scorching the land on closed-down government weapons testing facility in Simi Hills known to be heavily contaminated from decades of experiments.

Commencing operation in 1947 for Rockwell’s Rocketdyne Division, a government contractor for the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC), the Santa Susana Field Lab (SSFL) has a checkered safety record, to put it lightly. In addition to several nuclear accidents – including the worst nuclear meltdown in US history, toxic materials have accumulated on-site from years of dumping, just miles from thousands of residents.

It was the site of several nuclear accidents, including the worst nuclear meltdown in US history when, in 1959, facility operators intentionally vented nuclear material from the site’s “Sodium Reactor Experiment” to prevent it from overheating and exploding. By the time the leaks were closed, the site had released 459 times more radiation than was leaked during the better-known 1979 meltdown at Three Mile Island.

The lab property, now owned by airplane manufacturer Boeing, stretches for 2,800 acres in the Simi Hills, and remains contaminated with toxic materials. Thousands of people live within two miles of the site, and roughly half a million live within 10 miles, according to an investigation by NBC 4 Los Angeles. -Quartz

California officials with the state’s Department of Toxic Substances Control said that as of Friday, November 9, an area of the SSFL site which was scorched by the Woolsey fire posed no danger, stating “Our scientists and toxicologists have reviewed information about the fire’s location and do not believe the fire has caused any releases of hazardous materials that would pose a risk to people exposed to the smoke.”

A group of concerned physicians begs to differ.

According to Robert Dodge – a physician and president of Physicians for Social Responsibility Los Angeles, highly toxic materials embedded in SSFL’s soil and vegetation may have been spewed into the air by the Woolsey fire. 

“We know what substances are on the site and how hazardous they are. We’re talking about incredibly dangerous radionuclides and toxic chemicals such a trichloroethylene, perchlorate, dioxins and heavy metals,” said Dodge, adding: “These toxic materials are in SSFL’s soil and vegetation, and when it burns and becomes airborne in smoke and ash, there is real possibility of heightened exposure for area residents.”

Weighing in with satellite imagery tells a similarly two-sided story. These images show that the fires did spread to the compound, but they didn’t take down structures. With near-infrared imagery, dense vegetation appears red while burn scars from the Woolsey fire contrast as dark brown.

Dodge’s group has also criticized the California Department of Toxic Substances Control – pointing out that the state-run agency is currently under a state-mandated independent review to investigate its handling of toxic cleanups. 

According to a Draft environmental statement from the Energy department, Santa Susana Field Laboratory and its adjoining Northern Buffer Zone has never been fully cleaned up.

A 1998 article of Los Angeles Magazine details horrific cancers and other conditions which have afflicted those living near, and working at the site.

“Children growing up near the site swam and fished in streams and played in the dry wash. And one day, Garner rode his red J.C. Higgins bike he got for Christmas through effluent flowing from the lab.

Garner, now 44, lives in Simi Valley. An ironworker, he’s done contract jobs at the lab over the years. In October 1996, he was diagnosed with lymphoma. His wife Leslie had her uterus removed because of cervical cancers. His father – like Garner an ironworker employed occasionally at the lab – has skin cancer and heart problems and is near death. His sister Vickie, 46, has heart and thyroid problems. On one side of a single block of Ramara Avenue in Woodland Hills, five miles from the plant, cancer has been diagnosed in 9 out of 10 houses.” –Los Angeles Magazine

Meanwhile, here’s where the potentially toxic plume of smoke traveled as of November 9:

Embedded video

NWS Las Vegas

@NWSVegas

Here is a look at the Woolsey Fire in California as seen from the GOES-16 Weather Satellite this afternoon. #WoolseyFire #cawx

end
Auto stocks rise a bit after the White hOuse decides to hold off on car tariffs for the time being
(courtesy zerohedge)

Auto Stocks Jump After White House Decides To Hold Off On Car Tariffs

Shares of car makers slumped in the minutes before Monday’s close following a Bloomberg headline hinting that the US investigation into possible national security tariffs on imported cars could soon materialize. However, it appears that the White House has decided to hold off on any auto tariffs – for now, at least.

According to Bloomberg, European auto stocks climbed after people familiar with the matter said the White House is planning to hold off on imposing new tariffs on imported cars as officials consider revising a preliminary report on the findings of an investigation into possible tariffs that was ordered by Trump in the spring.

Trump met with his top trade advisers on Tuesday at the White House to discuss a draft report on a Commerce Department investigation into the impact of car imports. After the meeting, the administration concluded it wasn’t ready to act on tariffs and that the report would be subject to further changes.

In recent months, companies and governments from Europe to Asia had warned Trump that tariffs on car imports would hurt the U.S. economy and disrupt the global auto industry.

An auto trade war would deal a blow to car-makers from General Motors Co. to Toyota Motor Corp., which have built their supply chains to take advantage of countries with low duties. The National Automobile Dealers Association estimates that the tariffs would add as much as $2,270 to the cost of U.S.-built cars and $6,875 to the cost of imported cars and trucks.

Officials present for Tuesday’s meeting at the White House included Ross, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow and Senior Adviser Jared Kushner.

European Union Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said Tuesday that Europe expects to be exempted from any new U.S. automobile tariffs, at least temporarily. “We are under the assumption that is still valid,” Malmstrom said, referring to a pledge made by the U.S. and EU in July not to impose new tariffs on each other. She is in Washington this week to meet with Lighthizer.

Following the report, shares of Japanese carmakers such as Toyota and Honda rallied in Tokyo trading Wednesday: Toyota jumped as much as 2% while Honda rose 2.6%, Subaru rallied 4.1%, while Mazda gained 2$ and Nissan 1.9%. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Automobile & Parts Index was the best-performing component of the Stoxx 600, climbing 0.4% while the broader benchmark fell 1.2%. Some of the best performers included: Valeo (+2.1%), BMW (+1.3%), Volkswagen (+0.7%) and Renault (+0.7%).

Autostocks

 

end
Maxine Waters, although she is not dumber than an ox, she is not that much smarter.  When in power this mentally challenged future head of the House Finance Service committee probably new regulations against the banking sector..down goes the banks
(courtesy zerohedge)

Bank Stocks Dive After Maxine Waters Threatens End To Regulation-

Rollback

US financials stocks have tumbled from opening higher after Rep. Maxine Waters – soon to to take over the powerful House Financial Services Committee when the new Congress convenes in January – laid down the law on what will and won’t happen under Democrat rule.

As CNBC reports,  the California Democrat said efforts to loosen the reins on Wall Street financial institutions won’t be tolerated should she be committee chair, as expected.

“Make no mistake, come January, in this committee the days of this committee weakening regulations and putting our economy once again at risk of another financial crisis will come to an end,” Waters said.

And the reaction was swift…

After the squeeze, it’s been one-way street lower since the Dems took the House…

Still a long way to go to unwind the Trump bump… (JPMorgan still up 60% since the election)

END
Popular Michael Snyder gives his 11 signs that the uSA economy is starting to slow down dramatically
(courtesy Michael Snyder)

11 Signs That The US Economy Is Starting To Slow Down Dramatically

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

The pace at which things are changing is shocking the experts. 

Just a few months ago, many of the experts were still talking about how the U.S. economy was “booming”, but since then a major shift has taken place.  Most of the headlines have been about the huge stock market declines that we have been witnessing, but things have not been going well for the real economy either.  Home sales are way down, auto sales are plummeting, the retail apocalypse is escalating, the middle class continues to shrink and economic optimism is rapidly evaporating.  We haven’t seen anything like this since 2008, and many believe that the economic downturn that is now upon us will ultimately be even worse than what we experienced a decade ago.

The following are 11 signs that the U.S. economy is starting to slow down dramatically…

#1 When economic activity is rising, demand for oil increases, and oil prices tend to go up.  But when economic activity is slowing down, demand for oil diminishes, and oil prices tend to go down.  That is why what is happening to the price of oil right now is so alarming

US oil prices plummeted 7% to a one-year low of $55.69 a barrel on Tuesday. It was crude’s worst day since September 2015.

The losses in the oil world have been staggering as worries deepen about excess supply. Crude is down 12 straight days, the longest losing streak since futures trading began in March 1983.

#2 One new poll has found that only 13 percent of Americans plan to buy a home in the next year.  That number has fallen for three quarters in a row, and it is now down by almost half over the last twelve months.

#3 As the market dries up, the inventory of unsold homes is absolutely soaringnationwide…

With that in mind, it comes as no surprise that inventory countywide soared 86% among single-family homes and 188% among condos in October compared to a year prior, according to newly published data by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. It was the most massive year-over-year increase on record, dating back to the Dotcom bust, a rhythm that has some asking: Is the housing industry about to go bust?

#4 California once had the hottest housing market in the entire nation, but now home prices in the state are plummeting like it is 2008 all over again.

#5 According to the latest Bank of America survey, global fund managers are the most bearish that they have been since the financial crisis of 2008…

According to the survey, 44% of the fund managers expect global growth to decelerate in the next year, the worst outlook since November 2008. What’s more, 54% are anticipating a slowdown in Chinese growth in the next year, the most bearish they’ve been in over 2 years.

#6 America’s ongoing retail apocalypse just continues to accelerate.  According to a recent Bloomberg article, things are going so poorly for some mall operators that they “handing over their keys to lenders even before leases end”

Things are getting worse for malls across America. So much worse that their owners are walking away early from struggling properties, a trend that has mortgage bond investors bracing for losses.

Mall operators, eyeing defaults caused or made more likely by shuttered stores such as Sears Holdings Corp., are handing over their keys to lenders even before leases end. That’s forcing loan-servicing companies to either take a shot at running the properties or sell them cheap. And if they’re unable to salvage the debt payments, investors in commercial mortgage-backed securities will take a hit.

#7 Despite the eruption of a major trade war, the U.S. trade deficit with the rest of the world is on pace to set a brand new all-time record in 2018.

#8 One new study discovered that 62 percent of all U.S. jobs do not currently pay enough to support a middle class lifestyle.

#9 At this point, most Americans barely have any financial cushion at all.  According to one recent survey, 58 percent of all Americans have less than $1,000 in savings.

#10 Right now, more than half of all U.S. children are living in households that receive financial assistance from the federal government.

#11 As the economy slows down, an increasing number of Americans are being forced into the streets.  More than half a million Americans are currently homeless, and that number is growing with each passing day.

Meanwhile, more troubling news continues to emerge from Wall Street on a daily basis.  One of the big stories this week has been the fact that General Electric appears to be on the verge of “collapse”.  They have been completely locked out of the commercial paper market, they are being completely overwhelmed by the giant mountain of debt that they are carrying, and their formerly “investment grade” bonds are now being traded like junk.  The following comes from Zero Hedge

Two weeks after we reported that GE had found itself locked out of the commercial paper market following downgrades that made it ineligible for most money market investors, the pain has continued, and yesterday General Electric lost just over $5bn in market capitalization. While far less than the $49bn wiped out from AAPL the same day, it was arguably the bigger headline grabber.

The shares slumped -6.88% after dropping as much as -10% at the lows after the company’s CEO, in an interview with CNBC yesterday, failed to reassure market fears about a weakening financial position. The CEO suggested that the company will now urgently sell assets to address leverage and its precarious liquidity situation whereby it will have to rely on revolvers – and the generosity of its banks – now that it is locked out of the commercial paper market.

GE is not a financial company, but could this be a candidate to become “the next Lehman Brothers”?

The upward economic downturn of the last couple of years is totally gone, and many believe that there will soon be a feverish race for the exits on Wall Street.  If you have not already positioned yourself for the coming crisis, now is the time to do so.  As we saw in 2008, markets tend to go down a whole lot faster than they go up.

And once things get really crazy on Wall Street, the real economy can fall apart at a pace that is breathtaking.  In 2008, millions of people lost their jobs within a matter of months.  This will happen again, and there are an increasing number of signs that this is going to happen much sooner than most people had anticipated.

 

SWAMP STORIES

Trump is to submit in writing to Mueller on the Russian probe in the next few days

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump To Submit Written Replies To Mueller Probe

Questions “In Coming Days”

It’s been nearly a year since Special Counsel Robert Mueller and his team of prosecutors started negotiating with President Trump’s lawyers about the prospects for a presidential interview, a request that Trump once said he’d be happy – even eager – to oblige, until his lawyers explained that the downside risks (Trump falling into a perjury trap and possibly winding up in jail) far outweighed the upside (a minor PR victory).

Mueller

Somewhere around July, Mueller began to realize that his only leverage to try and force an in-person interview, the possibility that he could subpoena the president, wasn’t all that threatening. Given the very flimsy legal precedent and the confirmation of another friendly conservative justice (Neil Gorsuch), subpoenaing a sitting president would be more trouble than it was worth, and far too unorthodox for a man who has built his career on respecting precedents. So, over the summer, Mueller finally conceded, and agreed to accept written answers to his team’s questions, while also agreeing to limit the scope of his inquiry to the probe’s original purpose: The Trump campaign’s ties to Russia (allegations of obstruction of justice would just have to wait).

Which brings us to Tuesday, when CNN reported thatTrump’s finalized and, we imagine, thoroughly vetted answers would be submitted to Mueller “in the coming days,” just as his team is said to be busy working on another indictment, or string of indictments.

Trump reportedly met with his lawyers on Monday to give the answers one last review before submitting them.

The meeting was the latest as the responses are finalized, and the source said the answers could be submitted to the special counsel in the coming days. The questions focus on Russia collusion and not obstruction of justice and are part of an agreement reached with Mueller’s team to “move forward,” according to the source.

However, as CNN pointed out, there are still “issues that remain unresolved” – such as whether Trump will answer questions about whether he obstructed justice by firing former FBI Director James Comey, or whether an in-person interview might still be a possibility.

But there are other issues that have not been resolved, including answering questions about obstruction and whether the President will sit down for an interview with special counsel.

As CNN previously reported, Trump was meeting with lawyers about the questions before the midterms as he was preparing to remove Jeff Sessions as attorney general.

The move to replace Sessions with acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker, who has been openly critical of the special counsel, comes as the White House braces for a return of public activity on the Russia investigation following a pre-election quiet period, according to people briefed on the matter.

Whitaker will now oversee the Mueller investigation, which had previously been under the purview of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.

However, Trump’s appointment of Matt Whitaker as acting attorney general over Rod Rosenstein suggests that he has taken the necessary precautions to ensure that Mueller will wrap up his probe in a timely manner, as Whitaker has refused to recuse himself and Mitch McConnell has said that any legislation to protect Mueller would be dead in the water.

Drafts of what were said to be questions submitted by Mueller leaked back in May.  But questions about whether these were the final set, or represented just one round in the negotiations, remain.

end
The Feds are now investigating altered election documents tied to the Florida democratic party
what else is new..
(courtesy zerohedge)

Feds Investigating Altered Election Documents Tied To

Florida Democratic Party

The Florida Department of State (DoS) last week has asked federal prosecutors to investigate official election documents with the dates changed, which the department says can be tied to the Florida Democratic Party, according to Politico.

The concerns,which the department says can be tied to the Florida Democratic Party, center around date changes on forms used to fix vote-by-mail ballots sent with incorrect or missing information. Known as “cure affidavits,” those documents used to fix mail ballotswere due no later than 5 p.m. on Nov. 5 — the day before the election. But affidavits released on Tuesday by the DOS show that documents from four different counties said the ballots could be returned by 5 p.m. on Thursday, which is not accurate. –Politico

Unsurprisingly, one of the counties under scrutiny is Broward – which is now conducting no less than six recounts, after the results of three statewide races and three local legislative races have been called into question amid mysteriously found ballots and lingering questions over the chain of custody governing the proper handling of voting materials.

Republicans are pointing to Broward Elections chief Brenda Snipes’ dubious history of election gaffes, with many suggesting that she is rigging the election in favor of Democratic candidates.

That said, the Florida DoS has repeatedly insisted that their employees sent to observe the Broward election process have seen no evidence of election fraud – waiting until Tuesday to acknowledge that it had turned over information to federal prosecutors last week. On Nov. 9, DoS interim general counsel, Bradley McVay, asked that the altered dates be investigated.

Altering a form in a manner that provides the incorrect date for a voter to cure a defect … imposes a burden on the voter significant enough to frustrate the voter’s ability to vote,” said McVay in his Nov. 9 letter sent to US Attorneys Christopher Canova of the Northern District of Florida, Maria Chapa Lopez of the Middle District of Florida and Ariana Fajardo Orshan in the Southern District of Florida.

In recently released emails, one voter reports receiving a call from the Democratic Party after she was sent a cure affidavit with the wrong date.

The records released by DOS, which is part of Gov. Rick Scott’s administration, point the finger at the Florida Democratic Party. Political parties can get daily lists of people who had their mail-in ballots rejected. Political parties — or anyone else — can also get the publicly available cure affidavits and send them to voters who had a mail-in ballot rejected to encourage them to fix the ballots.

In an email chain released as part of the Department of State’s Tuesday document dump, Citrus County Supervisor of Elections Susan Gill last week told DOS officials that a voter who received one of the cure affidavits with the wrong date had also received a call from a number identified as the Tallahassee office of the Florida Democratic Party, an indication the party was reaching out about her vote by mail ballot.

“When I called it, it is the Democratic Party of Florida,” she said in a Nov. 8 email to DOS officials. –Politico

The woman said that she think the incorrect date was used since whoever sent the cure affidavit swapped the deadline for cure affidavits with the deadline for provisional ballots. “a bigger problem is the fact they actually changed one of the DOE forms,” she said.

In a different email, Okaloosa County Supervisor of Elections, Paul Lux, said he believed that the affidavits came from the Florida Democratic Party.

“Please pass the word to the FDP that they can’t arbitrarily add their own deadline to your form or VBM cures!!,” Lux emailed to DoS officials on Nov. 9, adding “This is crazy!”

In a Tuesday interview with POLITICO, Lux said he received an email from someone sending a cure affidavit marked with the wrong date that included a Florida Democratic Party email address.The email does contain the email address votes@FloridaDems.org, which is associated with the party. –Politico

A spokeswoman for the Florida Democratic Party brushed off the issue – claiming that the Scott administration’s election office is using it as a distraction.

“The courts have already forced Rick Scott to drop a lawsuit after false claims of fraud, and the Florida Department of Law Enforcement rejected his desperate attempts to interfere with the important work of counting ballots,” said Caroline Rowland in an email to Politico. “Now, Scott is once again trying to divert attention and resources from a smooth and successful recount.

END
The White House muzzles Peter Navarro after a spat with doorknob Kudlow. Both guys theories are out to lunch
(courtesy zerohedge)

White House Muzzles Peter Navarro After Larry Kudlow Smackdown

The White House has taken measures to minimize trade adviser Peter Navarro’s public profile after a Tuesday clashj with top economic adviser Larry Kudlow, according to CNBCciting a person with knowledge of the matter.

Kudlow disavowed comments from Navarro, a known China hawk, who last week lambasted Wall Street influence in US-China trade negotiations.

Last week, Navarro said a potential deal with China “will be on President Donald J. Trump’s terms. Not Wall Street’s terms.” Navarro, who has taken an aggressive stance toward changes in the U.S. trade relationship with China, contended that “there will be a stench around any deal that’s consummated” because of Wall Street’s involvement. The comments helped to sink the stock market. –CNBC

“He was not speaking for the president, nor was he speaking for the administration,” Kudlow told CNBC on Tuesday. “His remarks were way off base. They were not authorized by anybody. I actually think he did the president a great disservice.

Despite the barbs thrown by Kudlow, neither official is expected to leave the Trump administration anytime soon according to CNBC‘s source, however it was acknowledged that Trump “could also change his mind at any time about Navarro’s role.”

Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet later this month at the G-20 meeting in Argentina where the two leaders are expected to discuss trade.

Trump – threatening to put tariffs on an additional $257 billion in Chinese imports, on top of $250 billion already in place – has pushed for Beijing to address rampant Chinese theft of American intellectual property, and to reduce the US trade deficit with China.

According to journalist Bob Woodward’s book, “Fear,” this isn’t the first time Navarro has been muzzled by the White House – as other officials such as chief of staff John Kelly has limited Navarro’s access to Trump.

SWAMP STORIES COURTESY OF THE KING REPORT

and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down to us:

Kudlow says White House looking at infrastructure plan, including energy pipelines, LNG terminals   https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/13/kudlow-says-white-house-looking-at-infrastructure-plan-including-energy-pipelines-lng-terminals.html
@CNBC: WH economic adviser Kudlow said, “Peter very badly misspoke [on Friday]. He’s not representing the president or the administration.  I actually think he did the president a great disservice,” Trump advisor Larry Kudlow comments on White House trade advisor Peter Navarro.
Kudlow’s verbal intervention provided expiry week manipulators a big excuse to force ESZs and stocks higher.  The S&P 500 Index rallied 45 handles, or 1.66%, in forty-five minutes.
The bigger story, though, is the conflict between WH advisors over trade, with Navarro advocating for Main Street and Kudlow, as he generally does, carrying Wall Street’s water.
White House economic advisors clash as Kudlow says Navarro’s China comments were ‘not authorized’ – “If there is a deal — if and when there is a deal, it will be on President Donald J. Trump’s terms. Not Wall Street terms,” Navarro said on Friday.  “If Wall Street is involved and continues to insinuate itself into these negotiations, there will be a stench around any deal that’s consummated because it will have the imprimatur of Goldman Sachs and Wall Street,” he added.
The Kudlow peak occurred fifteen minutes before Europe closed.  Stocks then rolled over until the decline accelerated at midday.  The entire Kudlow rally, and then some, was rescinded by 13:10 ET.  New session lows appeared after a failed VIX Fix rally attempt.  Stocks declined until the final 25 minutes.
The morning decline and the aborted Kudlow rally suggest that stocks are not as concerned with US-China trade as many pundits proclaim and other factors (ebbing economy, impending Fed rate hikes, US political turmoil) are driving the stock market lower.
All Larry Kudlow accomplished with his verbal intervention was to alarm DJT coalition elements that Wall Street veterans in his administration (Mnuchin, Kudlow) are siding with Wall St against Main St.
@IngrahamAngle: If @POTUS caves to Wall Street on China, the old Trump coalition will see major schism: “White House economic advisor Kudlow says US is speaking again with China on trade”
If Kudlow convinced Trump that the stock market decline over the past two sessions was due to Navarro advocating for Main Street and against Wall Street and Larry could spark a rally by rebuking Navarro to appease Wall Street, Lar might think about updating his resume.
@GeorgePapa19: Joseph Mifsud wants to testify on Capitol Hill. Massive development!  If I was a western intelligence agent sent on an operation to cause a Russia conspiracy, I would be livid if my own colleagues threw me under the bus and called me a Russian agent just to get a FISA. Looking forward to hearing Mifsud’s testimony. It’s in the national interest.
    Mifsud is about to tear it right open in front of the world to see when he testifies on Capitol Hill.
      These “Russian agents”, like Joseph Mifsud, have a lot of courage coming to testify on Capitol Hill to discuss their efforts to subvert democracy, help Donald Trump become president and have info on Clinton’s emails whereabouts. Or, they want to expose the set up against Trump.
 
Law Professor Jonathan Turley: Mueller targets Stone in final push
Mueller clearly is still trying to build a case, and the most obvious target is Roger Stone, longtime Republican activist and Trump supporter…  Mueller seems to have given his staff a Bob Dylanesque order that “everybody must get Stone.” He has called in more than a dozen witnesses connected to Stone over the course of at least 16 months…
    Mueller has largely charged American defendants with collateral or wholly unrelated crimes from his original mandate… For all of these deals, Mueller has no core collusion or obstruction charge to show for his efforts… To spend two years investigating Russian collusion only to prosecute Trump for a marginal campaign finance violation would be a glaring shortfall…
 
NYT’s @SharonLNYT: Mueller’s team has proven very unforgiving of misstatements. At least four people have been charged with lying. [Will Team Hillary on her server, Benghazi, etc. as well as Comey, Brennan, Holder, Clapper et al get the same justice/treatment?]
 
Reports indicate Mueller is near the end of his probe.  There will be maximum danger for Dems and the Establishment if there is no proof of collusion.  After Bob’s report is released, Trump will be free to declassify documents and AG Whitaker will be free to indict (FISA abuse, illegal spying, conspiracy, etc.) and fire people (Rosenstein, et al.).  Perhaps they will get the full ‘Mueller treatment’ – squeeze the indicted financially, emotionally and physically until they squeal on others and higher ups.
 
Money to Clintons’ nonprofit tapers for third year in row [Reason for reports HRC will run in 2020?]
 
5 Reasons Why Sinema [Dem] Won Arizona [US Senate seat]
    McSally’s [Repub candidate] Prevent Defense – Instead of barnstorming the map and mixing it up with all comers, she carefully issues press releases and attends controlled events…
    The McCain/Flake Hangover – Arizona conservatives have been frustrated with their Republican senators for many years. Jeff Flake and John McCain campaigned as rock-ribbed right-wingers every six years only to vote with Democrats in DC on crucial issues…
 
Lack of sunspots to bring record cold, warns NASA scientist
“The sun is entering one of the deepest Solar Minima of the Space Age,” wrote Dr Tony Phillips just six weeks ago, on 27 Sep 2018.  Sunspots have been absent for most of 2018 and Earth’s upper atmosphere is responding, says Phillips, editor of spaceweather.com
 
72 percent say media ‘dividing Americans,’ spreading ‘hate
I HOPE TO SEE YOU ON THURSDAY IF ALL GOES WELL

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