NOV 28/POWELL SIGNALS PROBLEMS IN THE ECONOMY AND IS NOW READY TO BUT THE BRAKES ON INTEREST RATE HIKES: THAT WOULD BE THE ROCKET BLAST FOR GOLD AND SILVER/DOW SKYROCKETS UP 617 POINTS AND THE NASDAQ UP 208 POINTS/GOLD RISES $9.45 TO $1223.40 WITH SILVER ADVANCING 23 CENTS TO $14.35/IN A STUNNING MOVE THERESA MAY WILL NOW ALLOW BRITISH PARLIAMENT TO CHANGE TERMS OF THE BREXIT NEGOTIATED BETWEEN THE EU AND UK/ THE LARGEST BANK IN ITALY JUST SAW ITS DEBT COSTS RE A BOND ISSUE CLIMB BY OVER 400%/FRANCE IN CHAOS TODAY DUE TO DIESEL TAX: FRANCE IS BURNING!!/RUSSIA DEPLOYING S400 DEFENSE MISSILES INTO CRIMEA AS THEY CONFRONT THE UKRAINIANS/USA TRADE DEFICIT INSTEAD OF SHRINKING IT ROSE BY 77 BILLION DOLLARS LED BY A HUGE DECREASE IN EXPORTS/HOUSING STARTS DATA IN OCT, THE WORST IN 7 YEARS/TRUMP THREATENING TO SHUT DOWN GOVERNMENT UNLESS HE GETS HIS WALL!!/

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1223.40 UP  $9.45 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.35 UP 23 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1221.20

 

silver: $14.32

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

NOV

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV CONTRACT: 3 NOTICE(S) FOR 300 OZ

Total number of notices filed so far for NOV:  218  for 21800 OZ  (0.6780 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR NOVEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

nil  OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 1487 for 7,435,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $4087: up 192

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $4350  up $454 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1521 CONTRACTS FROM 201,304 DOWN TO  199783  WITH YESTERDAY’S  14 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR NOV.  2421 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND 0 FOR MARCH AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2421 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2421 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2421 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 12.105 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 14 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND  39.505 MILLION  OZ STANDING  IN SEPT.  2,520,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER. AND NOW SO FAR A HUGE 7,435,000 OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV: 46,435 CONTRACTS (FOR 19 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 46,345 CONTRACTS) OR 231.73 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2439 CONTRACTS OR 12.22 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF NOV:  215.070 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 33.10% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,643.80    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1521 WITH THE  14 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY AS THE BOYS CONTINUE WITH THEIR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OVER TO  ETFS AT THE START OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2421 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED: 900 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 2421 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1521 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS   DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 14 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.12 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH  IN SEPTEMBER A FINAL MONSTROUS 39.05 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY, WITH HUGE DELIVERIES OF OVER 2 MILLION OZ IN OCTOBER (A NON DELIVERY MONTH) AND NOW  7.435 MILLION OZ IN NOVEMBER….... NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.048 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 149% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz AND NOW NOV AT 7.435 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUMONGOUS  SIZED 19,232 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 442,801 WITH THE LOSS  IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A FALL IN PRICE OF $8.60//.YESTERDAY’S TRADING) AS THESE GUYS JOINED SILVER IN THE ROUTINE MIGRATION OVER TO ETF’S AS WE APPROACH AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED AN ATMOSPHERIC  SIZED 18,716 CONTRACTS:

 

 

NOVEMBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 18,716 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 442,801. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 522 CONTRACTS:  19,232 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 18,710 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS: 522 CONTRACTS OR 52200 OZ = 1.60 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $8.60

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 9246 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 149,293 CONTRACTS OR 14,929,300 OZ OR 464.35 TONNES (19 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7857 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 19 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 464.35 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 464.35/2550 x 100% TONNES =  15.92% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,681.14  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 19,232 WITH THE  LOSS IN PRICING ($8.60) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 18,710 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 18,710 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 522 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

18,710 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 19,232 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the LOSS in total oi equates to 1.60 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $8.60 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX

 

 

we had: 3 notice(s) filed upon for 300 oz of gold at the comex.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: / 

 

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   761.74 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 761.74 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY

 

 

 

A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

A DEPOSIT OF 188,000 0Z.

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A FAIR 1521 CONTRACTS from 201,304 DOWN TO 199,783  AND MOVING A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

i) 0 EFP’s for November… and

 

2421 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2421 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 1521 CONTRACTS TO THE 2421 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A HUGE  NET GAIN  OF 900 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE  GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4.50 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., AND NOW 7.435 MILLION OZ STANDING IN NOVEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A HUGE DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 14 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 2421 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.06 POINTS OR 1.05% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 350.60 POINTS OR 1.33% //The Nikkei closed UP 224.62 OR 1.02%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .05%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9534 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil UP to 51.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.09 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.9534AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9520: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C/  CHINA

China responds to the trade war by comparing it to playing with fire.  However China rules out selling USA treasuries as a trade weapon

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

In a stunning dramatic reversal, Theresa May will now allow Parliament to change parts of the Brexit deal.

( zerohedge)

ii)Italy

This is huge:  traders shocked as the largest Italian bank, Unicredit, was forced to pay the equivalent of 420 basis points over the euro swap rate.  In January it pad only 70 basis over swaps on a 5 yr bond.  Italian banks are now in jeopardy of default.  Remember that they have gorged themselves with a massive amount of sovereign debt and that debt is falling in value

(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)FRANCE 
DIESEL, is out of supply due to the constant strikes inside France. The French refinery strike has deepened the crisis as the populace take out their anger on a diesel tax initiated by Macron
(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Russia/UKRAINE/

This is what we are afraid of:  Russia deploying S 400 missiles to the Crimea in a military showdown with the Ukraine

 

( zerohedge)

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

CANADA

Canada’s Trudeau is bailing out the Media and thus we again will lose their independence

( Mansur/Gatestone Institute)

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Support GATA by subscribing to a very good report on gold by Thom Calandra
( GATA/Calandra)
ii)Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
( zerohedge/Chris Powell)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

i) Powell speech

ii) Dave Kranzler’s states the true meaning of the Powell speech

ii)Market data/

a)wow!! this is dramatic.  Tariffs are suppose to lessen deficits.  Instead the USA trade deficit soared to 77.2 billion dollars, with imports rising by only .1% but exports plunged by .6%

( zerohedge)

b)The 2nd estimate of Q3 was expected to be higher due to all of the Trump spending.  The GDP number stuck at 3.5% as well as the all important spending shrank.  What saved the GDP number was inventories which soared
( zerohedge)
c)Housing data continues to disappoint.  this time it is the most important of the three housing data entries:  new home sales. They crashed in Oct with the biggest plunge in over 7 yrs 8.9% month/month.  Now you can visually see that the USA economy collapsed as we entered October
( zerohedge)

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Maryland reports that its oyster population collapsed and now they spark fears of overfishing

( zerohedge)

b)Mnuchin is lobbing the Fed to halt rate cuts but increase the speed of Fed roll off

(( zerohedge)

c)this is obvious:  with the huge number of fires and hurricanes, the cost to insure a home is about to jump big time.
A good commentary from John Rubino, dollar collapse
( John Rubino/Dollar Collapse)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)This is interesting:  Manafort’s lawyer repeatedly briefed Trump on what was discussed with Mueller.  This will explain why Mueller is so angry with Manafort. Manafort is obviously hoping for a pardon once the Mueller probe is over

( zerohedge)

b)This is interesting:  Trump and Mnuchin are now calling on General Motors to return back the Federal bailout money given in 2008
( zerohedge)

c)Another anxiety problem for the markets:  Trump is threatening to shutdown the Federal Government unless he gets funding for the border wall.  There are 7 appropriation bills on the table and he will not sign them unless he gets his wall.

( zerohedge)
d)Trump is very angry with General Motors. He is angrier at Europe and China for their higher tariffs on USA cars in their respective countries.  He is now hinting at more car tariffs in the uSA
( zerohedge)

e)A seething Trump fells his agencies to find ways to cut GM subsidies.  GM issues a voluntary buyout offer to over 8,000 senior employees.  If they do not get their required number, then involuntary layoffs begin

( zerohedge)

f)Trump threatens to declassify “devastating” documents if the Democrats investigate him. That is a no brainer

( zerohedge)
E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 19,232 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level 442,801 WITH THE  LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($8.60 IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 18,710 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

NOV: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  18,710 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  18,710 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  522 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 18,710 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A GOOD SIZED 19,232 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 522 contracts OR 52200 OZ OR 1.60 TONNES.

 

We are now in the non active contract month of November. For the November contract month, we have 3 notices standing so we LOST 1 contract. We had 0 notices served YESTERDAY so we lost 1 contract or an additional 100 oz of gold will not stand for gold at the comex and these guys morphed into London based forwards as well as accept  a fiat bonus for the trouble.

 

 

 

 

 

The next delivery month after November is the very big December contract month and here the OI FELL by 46,405 contracts  to 99,707 contracts.  January saw a RISE TO 4241 FOR A GAIN OF 223 CONTRACTS.  February gained 24,554 contracts to stand at 255,609 contracts.

FOR COMPARISON TO THE 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

ON NOV 28/2017 WE HAD 93,032 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS (WITH 2 DAYS LEFT BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE) COMPARED TO THIS YEAR: 99,707.( COMPARED TO 2  READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE)

IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A DANDY AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN DECEMBER.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1/2017: 37.035 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

EVENTUALLY BY DEC 31.2017:  28.592 TONNES STOOD AND THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

AS A REMINDER WE HAVE ONLY 4.000 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD READY TO SERVE UPON OUR DEC LONGS.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 3 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 300 OZ.

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY 1522 CONTRACTS FROM 201,304 DOWN TO 199,783 (AND FURTHER FROM NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S SMALL  OI COMEX LOSS  OCCURRED WITH A 14 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 2421 EFP CONTRACTS:  FOR NOVEMBER:  0 CONTRACTS AND FOR …

 

FOR DECEMBER: 2421 CONTRACTS, FOR MARCH 0 CONTRACTS, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2421.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 900 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  1521 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2421 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   900 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 14  CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of NOVEMBER and here we now have 0 notices  standing for a loss of 0 contacts.  We had 0 notices served upon yesterday so we gained 0 contracts or an additional nil oz will  stand for delivery as these longs refused to  morph into London based forwards as well as not accepting a fiat bonus for their efforts.

 

 

 

 

After November, we have a December contract and here we LOST 14,912 contracts DOWN to 36,242.  January saw a GAIN of 125 contracts up to 1840 contracts.   March, the next big delivery month after December saw a gain of 11,350 contracts  up to 132,953

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

ON NOV 27. 2017 WE HAD STILL  31,952 (2 days before first day notice) OPEN  INTEREST CONTRACTS LEFT TO BE SERVED UPON AND THIS COMPARES TO TODAY: 36,242 CONTRACTS (2 days before first day notice)

IT ALSO LIKES LIKE WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A DANDY AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1.2017 WE HAD A RATHER LARGE: 19.47 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY

BY THE END OF DECEMBER:  33.295 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NAME OF THE GAME IN SILVER.

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 0 notice(s) filed for nil OZ for the NOV, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 425,042 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  454,323  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  NOV/GOLD

NOV 28-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 160.755  oz
Brinks
5 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

nil

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
3 notice(s)
 300 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
(NIL oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
218 notices
21800 OZ
0.6780 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

total gold entering dealer:  0 oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer;  0 oz

 

we had 1 kilobar transaction/
we had 1 withdrawal out of the customer account:
i) Out of Brinks:  160,55 oz
total customer withdrawals:  160.55 oz
we had 0 customer deposits
total customer deposits nil oz
we had 0  adjustments..

FOR THE NOV 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (218) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (3 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (3 x 100 oz per contract) equals 21,800 OZ OR 0.6781 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of NOV

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (218 x 100 oz)  + {3)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (3 x 100 oz )which equals 21800 oz standing OR 0.6781 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOVEMBER.

WE LOST 1 CONTRACT OR AN ADDITIONAL 100 OZ WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE LONGS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS ACCEPTING A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 3.995 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 0.6781 TONNES STANDING FOR NOVEMBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  128,451.881 oz or   3.995 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,015,451.881 oz 249.312 tonnes
 I BELIEVE THAT THIS IS THE LOWEST REGISTERED GOLD READING IN THE COMEX HISTORY..AS WELL AS THE LONGEST WE HAVE SEEN THE REGISTERED COLUMN AT 5 TONNES OR LESS. WE HAVE NOW BROKEN THE 4 TONNES BARRIER TO READ; 3.995 TONNES OF DEALER (REGISTERED) GOLD.

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 108 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THERE IS NO GOLD AT THE COMEX..AS THE CROOKS SEEMS TO BE FORCING LONGS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF LONDON FORWARDS AND NOT TAKE POSSESSION OF ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX/

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

NOV INITIAL standings/SILVER

NOV 28, 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1092.700 oz
brinks
.

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
1,110,333.463
Brinks
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
595,143.060oz
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
(nil oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 1487 contracts

(7,435,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

 

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into Brinks:  1,110,333.463 oz

total dealer deposits: 1,110,333.463 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 151.7 million oz of  total silver inventory or 52.09% of all official comex silver. (152.0 million/292 million)

ii)Into Scotia:  595,143.060 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 595,143.060  oz

we had 1 withdrawal out of the customer account:
i) Out of Brinks: 1092.700oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 1092.700 oz

 

we had 0 adjustments

 

 

total dealer silver:  81.661 million

total dealer + customer silver:  294.693  million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2018. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR nil oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1487 x 5,000 oz = 7,435,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (0) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOV/2018 contract month: 1487(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV( 0) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 7,435,000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month.  This is a gigantic number of oz standing for an off delivery month. Somebody is after a large supply of physical silver. We GAINED 0 contracts or an additional nil OZ will  stand at the comex as these longs refused to accept a London based forwards as well as negating the right to receive a fiat bonus. As we explained above somebody was in urgent need of physical silver today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 142,186 CONTRACTS  … 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 130,793 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 130,793 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 659 million OZ  93.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -4.40-% (NOV 28/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.31% to NAV (NOV 28/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.40%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.29/TRADING 11.76/DISCOUNT 4.12

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 26/WITH GOLD DOWN 65 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

 

NOV 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.95: A BIG CHANGE: A GOOD SIZED DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 16/WITH GOLD UP $8.00: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.48 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 15/WITH GOLD UP $5.35/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $8.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.77 TONNES AT THE GLD/THAT SHOULD END THE WHACKING OF GOLD FOR NOW AND A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 84 TONNES: INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $2.60″ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.70 TONNES

NOV 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.80 A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.70 TONES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.29 TONNES

NOV 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.06 TONNES

NOV 1/: 2 TRANSACTIONS:WITH GOLD UP $23.85,A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .80 TONNES OF GOLD TO PAY FOR FEES, INSURANCE AND STORAGE: INVENTORY AT THE GLD RESTS AT 754.06 TONNES THEN A DEPOSIT OF 6.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.82

OCT 31: WITH GOLD DOWN $11.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RE3STS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCTOBER 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCTOBER 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.15: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES. FROM ITS LOW POINT AT THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER THE GLD HAS ADDED.19.47 TONNES OF GOLD

OCT 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.88 TONNES

Oct 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.97 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.82

AND THEN: A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES SUCH THAT THE FINAL RESTING INVENTORY IS 747.88 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.70 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RSTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP BY ONLY $1.00/WE HAD ANOTHER 4.12 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.45/ANOTHER 5.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 744.64 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.35/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $35.20 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER GOLD INVENTORY GAIN OF 8.82 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17

OCT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.60 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

 

 

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NOV 28.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 761.74 tonnes

*IN LAST 504 TRADING DAYS: 173.41 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 4034 TRADING DAYS: A NET 13.41 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 28/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 188,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ/

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.301 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.718 MILLION OZ/

NOV 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ

NOV 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ.

NOV 21/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 563,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 16/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS; A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 328,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/ A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.784 MILLION OZ

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ/

NOV 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 281,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ.

NOV 7: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 143,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.320 MILLION OZ/

NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.033 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.463 MILLION OZ.

OCT 31/WITH SILVER DOWN  18 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ/

OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ

OCTOBER 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS NO  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.879 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ.

OCTOBER 26/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ

OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ/

OCT 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.819 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 331.690 MILLION OZ.

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 470,000/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.509 MILLION OZ/

OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INV. RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.127  MILLION /RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ/

OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 15/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 12/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, A GOOD SIZE WITHDRAWAL OF 563,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ.

 

 

NOV 28/2018:

 

Inventory 322.906 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.55/ and libor 6 month duration 2.80

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .35

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.89%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.13

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.24

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

General Motors And General Electric Highlight The Ponzi Scheme That Is The US Economy

… GE and GM are both telling us the US economy is in huge trouble

by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse Blog

America’s twin economic “generals” are both in very deep trouble.

General Electric was founded in 1892, and it was once one of the most powerful corporations on the entire planet. But now it is drowning in so much debt that it may be forced into bankruptcy.

General Motors was founded in 1908, and at one time it was the largest automaker that the world had ever seen.  But now it is closing a bunch of factories and laying off approximately 14,000 workers as it anticipates disappointing sales and a slowing economy.

If the U.S. economy really was “booming”, both of these companies would probably be thriving.  But as you will see below, both of them have been victimized by the exact same Ponzi scheme, and both firms are sending us very clear signals that the U.S. economy is heading for troubled waters.

Whenever you hear the word “restructuring”, that is always a sign that things are not going well for a company.

And it turns out that GM’s “restructuring” is actually going to cost the firm 3.8 billion dollars

General Motors said Monday it plans to effectively halt production at a number of plants in the U.S. and Canada next year and cut more than 14,000 jobs in a massive restructuring that will cost up to $3.8 billion.

Of course GM doesn’t have 3.8 billion dollars just lying around, and so they are actually going to have to borrow money in order to close these plants and lay off these workers.

Needless to say, President Trump is not very happy with General Motors right now…

Trump said he spoke Monday with GM’s CEO, Mary Barra, and ‘I told them, “you’re playing around with the wrong person”.’

He told reporters as he left the White House for a pair of political rallies in Mississippi that the United States ‘has done a lot for General Motors. They better get back to Ohio, and soon.’

There is no way that Mary Barra should have ever been made CEO of General Motors, and now the entire world is getting to see why.

In addition to the elimination of about 6,000 factory jobs, GM will also be cutting about 8,000 “white collar jobs”

In addition to the production cuts, GM said it will reduce its North American white-collar workforce by about 8,000. The deadline passed last week on a voluntary buyout for those workers, and GM spokesman Pat Morrissey told the Free Press that only 2,250 employees have asked to take the offer, meaning as many as 5,750 workers could be cut if the company keeps to its announced total. Analysts told the Free Press to expect involuntary cuts in January.

So why is General Motors doing this?

After all, if the U.S. economy really is “booming” that should mean increased sales for all of the major automakers in the coming years, right?

Unfortunately, the truth is that hard times are already here for automakers.  In fact, Bob Lutz told CNBC that “we’ve got a demand problem on cars”…

Former GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz said the automaker historically would have raised sales incentives to try to sell more cars before resorting to plant closures.

“Nowadays GM looks at the hard reality, says we’ve got a demand problem on cars, what are we going to do about it. We have to shut some facilities and move production to truck plants,” Lutz said on CNBC’s “Halftime Report. ” “So I think what we are seeing is a fast-acting and reality-oriented GM management.”

In other words, sales are not good and so now is the time to shut down factories.

Of course GM is not the only one that is shutting down facilities and laying off workers.  If you doubt this, please see my previous article entitled “U.S. Job Losses Accelerate: Here Are 10 Big Companies That Are Cutting Jobs Or Laying Off Workers”.

But if General Motors had been much wiser with their money, they wouldn’t have had to initiate a “restructuring” so quickly.

Over the past four years, General Motors spent a staggering 13.9 billion dollars on stock buybacks.

GM executives were able to prop up the stock price for a while, but at this point the stock is down about 10 percent from where it was four years ago.  The following comes from Wolf Richter

During this four-year period in which GM blew, wasted, and annihilated nearly $14 billion on share buybacks, the price of its shares, including today’s 5.5% surge – getting rid of workers is always good news for shares – fell 10%.

These stock buybacks are a massive Ponzi scheme, and everyone that was involved in blowing such a giant mountain of cash at GM should be fired.

And now thousands of hard working Americans are going to lose their jobs, but it didn’t have to happen.

General Electric has also been victimized by the exact same Ponzi scheme, and at this point they are in a struggle for survival which they are probably going to lose.

On Monday the stock slid another couple of percent, and so far this year it is down a total of 58 percent

Not a day passes lately without GE stock getting hit by some unexpected development, and today was no exception.

GE shares, which are down 58% YTD, dropped over 2% on Monday, after sliding as much as 4.1% earlier in the session and approaching its financial crisis low of $6.66, following a research report by Gordon Haskett analyst John Inch which prompted fresh questions about the treatment of goodwill at GE Capital.

In the end, GE is probably heading for total collapse.

But if GE had not blown 40 billion dollars on stock buybacks in recent years, they would be in far, far better shape.  The following comes from the Marketwatch article that I quoted the other day…

GE was one of Wall Street’s major share buyback operators between 2015 and 2017; it repurchased $40 billion of shares at prices between $20 and $32. The share price is now $8.60, so the company has liquidated between $23 billion and $29 billion of its shareholders’ money on this utterly futile activity alone. Since the highest net income recorded by the company during those years was $8.8 billion in 2016, with 2015 and 2017 recording a loss, it has managed to lose more on its share repurchases during those three years than it made in operations, by a substantial margin.

Even more important, GE has now left itself with minus $48 billion in tangible net worth at Sept. 30, with actual genuine tangible debt of close to $100 billion. As the new CEO Larry Culp told CNBC last Monday: “We have no higher priority right now than bringing those leverage levels down.”

Combined, General Electric and General Motors have blown more than 53 billion dollars on stock buybacks, and now both companies are in huge trouble.

The executives that gutted the finances of both firms by engaging in these sorts of Ponzi tactics should all be fired and should never be hired by anyone else in the corporate world.

For years, big corporations have been borrowing massive amounts of money to fund reckless stock buybacks, and that has helped to fuel an amazing bull market run.

But now the game is imploding, and the unraveling of this massive Ponzi scheme is not going to be pretty.

Editors note: This excellent article again highlights the vital importance of re-balancing investment and pension portfolios today and diversifying into physical gold (and silver)

About the author: Michael Snyder is a nationally syndicated writer, media personality and political activist. He is publisher of The Most Important News and the author of four books including The Beginning Of The End and Living A Life That Really Matters.

*  *  *

 

 

News and Commentary

Gold edges lower as dollar holds steady (Reuters.com)

Asian markets cool off as investors await Trump-Xi meeting (MarketWatch.com)

Trump refuses to condemn Russian aggression against Ukraine (CNN.com)

Gold firms on doubts over Fed rate path; focus on G20 (Reuters.com)

Stock Rally Hits Speed Bump With U.S. Tariff Alarm (Bloomberg.com)

Fed’s Bullard: ‘cracks’ in growth may shape Fed 2019 debate (Reuters.com)


Source: Gary Christenson

Silver Industrial Demand Remains Strong (SilverInstitute.org)

Its time to sell into rallies, bear market or not (MarketWatch.com)

Diversification is best way for investors to prepare for Brexit (MoneyWeek.com)

China Ambassador Warns Of “Dire Consequences” If No Deal, Hints At “All Out” War (ZeroHedge.com)

Trump is ready to go all-out in the trade war with China, and even the iPhone may not be spared (BusinessInsider.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

27 Nov: USD 1,225.05, GBP 959.70 & EUR 1,082.21 per ounce
26 Nov: USD 1,226.65, GBP 954.58 & EUR 1,079.33 per ounce
23 Nov: USD 1,222.15, GBP 951.69 & EUR 1,075.13 per ounce
22 Nov: USD 1,228.25, GBP 950.42 & EUR 1,074.72 per ounce
21 Nov: USD 1,224.00, GBP 957.29 & EUR 1,075.04 per ounce
20 Nov: USD 1,223.10, GBP 951.45 & EUR 1,069.97 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

27 Nov: USD 14.28, GBP 11.20 & EUR 12.61 per ounce
26 Nov: USD 14.38, GBP 11.18 & EUR 12.65 per ounce
23 Nov: USD 14.26, GBP 11.12 & EUR 12.56 per ounce
22 Nov: USD 14.52, GBP 11.26 & EUR 12.72 per ounce
21 Nov: USD 14.42, GBP 11.26 & EUR 12.65 per ounce
20 Nov: USD 14.44, GBP 11.24 & EUR 12.63 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– A Worldwide Debt Default Is A Real Possibility
– Risk of Lower Lows in Gold Remains Prior to Spectacular Rally to Follow
– Gold and Silver Hold Firm as Stocks and Oil Lower in to US Holiday Weekend
– Is Brexit a Massive Threat to Globalisation?
– Stock Markets Remains Extremely Overvalued – Hussman
– Stocks are Now in ‘Complete Bitcoin Territory,’ Asset Manager Says
– Brexit’s Safe Haven Is a Dangerous Place
– Gold and Silver Rise As Stocks Fall On Valuation Concerns, Italy and Brexit Risks
– Pound Falls 2.5% Against Gold as UK Government in Turmoil Over Brexit
– GoldCore Capitalising On Brexit With Dublin Gold Vault
– Store Gold In The Safest Vaults In Ireland

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
 
 
ii) GATA stories
Support GATA by subscribing to a very good report on gold by Thom Calandra
(courtesy GATA/Calandra)

Support GATA by subscribing to The Calandra Report

 Section: 

2:32p ET Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Our longtime friend the intrepid world-traveling market analyst Thom Calandra, publisher of The Calandra Report financial letter, is generously offering GATA supporters a deeply discounted one-year subscription offer in which half the price will be donated to GATA.

The regular price of a year’s subscription to The Calandra Report is $249. The discounted offer to GATA supporters is $149, of which $75 will be donated to GATA.

… 

 

Calandra says: “We are looking for a handful of investors and participants who care about honest, first-hand reporting and research about mining, exploration, and the royalty model — inside and outside of metals (gold, silver, platinum, copper, zinc, cobalt, nickel) — and biomedical issues and an occasional special situation.”

Samples of The Calandra Report can be viewed here:

http://thomcalandra.com

Along with GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and your secretary/treasurer, Thom spoke at the New Orleans Investment Conference this month and was interviewed there by Charlotte McLeod for the Investing News Network. The interview is headlined “Why Diversification in Commodities Is a Great Thing” and can be heard here:

https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-inves…

The Calandra Report is a private letter and publishes actionable editions about twice weekly. Thom is readily available to his subscribers and is glad to correspond with them.

The Calandra Report started in 1999 under the umbrella of MarketWatch.com, which Thom co-founded. It has been in its current form as a private letter since 2011.

Two subscription choices with this special offer for GATA supporters are available. Both cost $149.

— A one-year, non-recurring subscription:

https://www.paypal.com/webapps/hermes?token=61061118U9327732G&useraction…

— And a one-year subscription that automatically renews unless you cancel:

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=URG…

This offer will continue through December 27. Please consider it, since The Calandra Report is always interesting and GATA really could use the help right now.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end




iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

__________________________________________

 

 

 

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.9534/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER NOW ON //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9520   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 27,06 POINTS OR 1.05%

. HANG SANG CLOSED UP 350.60 POINTS OR 1.33%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 224.62 POINTS OR 1.02%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 97.37/Euro FALLS TO 1.1283

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.10/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 113.80/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 51.77 and Brent: 60.09

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.34%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 3.25% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.55%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.91: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.34

3k Gold at $1213.90 silver at:14.16   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 13/100 in roubles/dollar) 67.26

3m oil into the 51 dollar handle for WTI and 60 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.80DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9934 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1276 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.34%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.06% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.31%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.2537

 

US Futures Jump On Fresh Hopes For China Trade

Deal, Dovish Powell Speech

In a generally quiet overnight session, renewed hopes for a thaw in U.S.-China trade relations at the upcoming G20 summit helped global shares rise to a one-week high on Wednesday, though lingering fears of a no-deal outcome weighed on European bourses. U.S. futures rose, extending on Tuesday’s rebound and tracking gains in Asia as investors rekindled their risk appetite before a key speech by Fed chair Powell who many hope will reverse yesterday’s hawkish rhetoric by Clarida, and come off as dovish, especially after this morning’s report that Steve Mnuchin has been pushing for a shift from hiking rates to balance sheet reduction. The dollar and Treasuries were steady.

While President Donald Trump talked tough on the trade tariffs issue ahead of a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday, markets focused on comments by White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow, who held open the possibility that the two countries would reach a trade deal. Kudlow’s comments helped Wall Street close higher and allowed Chinese and Japanese shares to rally 1% as the MSCI index of Asian shares ex-Japan gained 0.7%.

The mood however fizzled into the European session, with the pan-European index giving up opening gains to trade flat and Germany’s DAX trading unchanged. Technology companies and retailers were the best performers in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, which struggled to maintain early gains as a Tuesday report that Trump may soon decide about new taxes on imported cars, still weighed on sentiment, keeping Europe’s auto sector shares 0.6 percent in the red.

“An expectation is being priced into markets ahead of the G20 meeting that we will see some deal or at least a framework for a deal between Trump and (Chinese President) Xi Jinping,” said Bernd Berg, global macro strategist at Switzerland-based Woodman Asset Management. “But if they come out with nothing this weekend, it’s going to be very bad.”

Traders are also focusing on a speech at 12pm ET by Fed Chair Jerome Powell to see if he offers clues on how many more times the Fed could raise interest rates, following yesterday’s modestly hawkish if cautious take from vice chair Clarida.

While Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida took a less dovish stance on Tuesday than some had expected and backed more rate rises, Powell and his colleagues have in recent weeks alluded to global volatility, leading many to speculate the bank’s three-year-long rate rise campaign could pause in 2019.

Continued uncertainty over global trade as well as Brexit and Italy’s ongoing conflict with the European Union, have supported the U.S. dollar, which rose to a two-week high and approached the highest level hit in 2018.

While the main driver for the greenback is the U.S. interest rate path, Rodrigo Catril, senior strategist at National Australia Bank, said it was also benefiting from the uncertain mood. “Markets seem to be jumping at shadows at the moment and against this backdrop of uncertainty, the dollar remains the preferred option for weathering the storm,” Catril said.

Investors are also monitoring developments in Italy’s row with the EU over its budget spending, with Germany’s Handelsblatt and Italy’s La Stampa quoting EU commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis as saying the draft budget needed “substantial correction”.

The 10-year Treasury yield drifted ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech as European bonds nudged higher and the Euro was range bound. Italian bond yields flatlined after sharp rallies that were triggered by what appeared to be a more conciliatory stance from the government over the issue.

The dollar was mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers, trading in narrow ranges ahead of key events this week and EUR/USD hovered below 1.1300; Treasuries were little changed with the 10-year yield at 3.05%. Sweden’s krona gained even after retail sales and an economic tendency survey missed estimates. The pound trimmed some of the previous session’s losses as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May appeared to back down in a key Brexit battle with Parliament.

Brent crude handed back earlier gains to trade little changed. Brent (-0.4%) and WTI (-0.1%) are lower heading into the US open after initially trading positive. A larger than expected build in API crude stockpiles of +3.453mln compared to the expected build of +0.8mln had little impact on the price rebound at the time which instead focused on the larger than expected gasoline draw. Additionally, three North Sea forties crude cargoes which were scheduled to load in December have been cancelled due to the temporary closure of the 150,000 BPD capacity Buzzard oilfield. Saudi Energy minister Al Falih stated this morning that Saudi will not and cannot reduce output on their own, and is hopeful that upcoming meetings will result in agreement to stabilise the market.

Gold is slightly lower as the dollar continues to firm, although the yellow metal has rebounded from lows of USD 1211.3/oz in the previous session. Separately, copper is higher following a 3-session decline although, gains for the metal have been restricted by ongoing US-China tensions, with the most recent comments coming from White House Economic Advisor Kudlow saying that US President Trump is prepared to raise tariffs if G20 talks are not constructive.

On other markets, cryptocurrency bitcoin jumped 6 percent to above $4,000, its biggest one day jump since the summer, and extending its rebound from a low of $3,475 touched on Sunday.

Today’s expected data include mortgage applications, wholesale inventories, and new home sales. Burlington Stores, Royal Bank of Canada, Tiffany, and Weibo are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,686.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.06% to 357.60
  • MXAP up 0.7% to 152.77
  • MXAPJ up 0.7% to 490.34
  • Nikkei up 1% to 22,177.02
  • Topix up 0.6% to 1,653.66
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.3% to 26,682.56
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.1% to 2,601.74
  • Sensex up 0.8% to 35,785.59
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.06% to 5,725.08
  • Kospi up 0.4% to 2,108.22
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.3 bps to 0.337%
  • Euro down 0.05% to $1.1283
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.0 bps to 2.92%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to 1.556%
  • Brent futures down 0.3% to $60.05/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,213.28
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.38

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin privately asked bond dealers and investors in October whether they want the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates or through faster cuts in its securities portfolio, six people familiar with the matter said; Mnuchin’s question could be seen as suggesting a way for the central bank to accomplish its goal of preventing a strong economy from overheating without triggering the ire of President Donald Trump
  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has backed down in a key Brexit battle with Parliament, ditching moves to stop lawmakers trying to re-write her plans, according to an official. Risk of no-deal Brexit choking ports rising, U.K. lawmakers say
  • President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping will meet over dinner Saturday evening in Buenos Aires marking a pivotal moment in the escalating trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Trump-Xi meeting puts emerging markets on pain-or-pleasure watch
  • President Donald Trump renewed his attack on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, telling the Washington Post he’s “not even a little bit happy” with his choice to head the central bank
  • Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday sprinkled small doses of concern into otherwise upbeat assessments of the U.S. economy. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Clarida backs Fed’s gradual hikes with neutral rate uncertain
  • The U.K.’s effort to rejoin a key World Trade Organization agreement that governs public procurement opportunities worth $1.7t a year gained provisional backing on Tuesday
  • Credit Suisse Group AG is set to make Madrid its post-Brexit trading hub in the European Union after initially planning to move only some investment banking positions to the Spanish capital from London, according to people with knowledge of the matter
  • Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said the budget negotiations with the European Union “won’t be easy,” as the government sticks to its spending plans, according to an interview published by Corriere della Sera

Asian equity markets traded mostly positive following a similar lead from Wall St. but with the session initially mired by lingering uncertainty regarding US-China trade relations. Nikkei 225 (+1.0%) outperformed as the index coat-tailed on the recent advances in USD/JPY, while ASX 200 (-0.1%) was subdued by weakness in miners after the metals complex felt the brunt of the recent USD strength and with financials subdued by AMP Capital amid risk of further mischarging cases and provisions. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.0%) were higher but with price action choppy in early trade amid tentativeness heading into the Trump-Xi showdown at this week’s G20 and as participants mulled over various comments from officials including White House Economic Adviser Kudlow who affirmed that Trump could hike tariffs if no constructive talks occur at G20 and that the White House is disappointed in China’s response to the trade issue. However, Kudlow also noted that Trump is open to a deal with China and there were recent comments from China’s Vice Premier Liu that China wants a negotiated solution on trade based on mutual respect. Finally, 10yr JGBs weakened amid a lacklustre tone in T-note futures and with the BoJ’s presence in the bond market overshadowed by the outperformance of Japanese stocks. China’s US envoy said selling or reducing purchases of US Treasuries would be very dangerous like playing with fire, while the envoy doesn’t think anybody in Beijing is seriously thinking about pulling back from US Treasury debt market should tensions worsen. Furthermore, there were reports that China’s Ambassador to the US warned of dire consequences if the trade war leads to economic separation and that China prefers a negotiated solution, while the Ambassador warned that China will retaliate in proportion to any US sanctions regarding Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang.

Top Asian News

  • Bank of Thailand Minutes Signal an Interest-Rate Hike Is Coming
  • Furor Over Gene-Altered Babies Deepens With China Project Halted
  • Pakistan’s Umar Says No Hurry for IMF Deal as Talks Resume
  • Turkey Sinks to Last on Emerging-Market Scorecard; Malaysia Tops
  • Brookfield Is Said to Be in Talks to Invest in Dubai’s Meraas

In a slightly choppy session thus far, European equities (Eurostoxx 50 +0.3%) have held on to opening gains seen in the wake of the upbeat US and Asia-Pac sessions, despite lingering trade concerns. The most recent interjection came from White House Economic Adviser Kudlow who commented that Trump is open to a deal with China and that the raising of tariffs to 25% is not a “certainty” but  will be implemented if no constructive talks occur at the G20. In terms of sector specifics, IT names are the clear outperformers at this stage of the session with Wirecard (+1.3%) and Dialog Semiconductor (+3.1%) notable gainers in the tech-space after trying to recoup recent losses with not much else in the way of key newsflow. Noteworthy individual movers include EDF (+3.1%) with shares buoyed by reports that that a potential increase in the French government’s stake in the Co. would take place next year. To the downside, Tenaris (-8.2%), sit at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the Co.’s chairman was indicted in a graft case, whilst Continental shares (-5.4%) have been weighed on by negative comments from Redburn who have warned over the group’s EBIT prospects in 2019.

Top European News

  • Continental AG Falls After CFO Sees Margin Pressure Persisting
  • Italy Premier Says Social Stability Takes Priority Over Finances
  • Fevertree 2018 Stock Surge Erased Amid Tonic Maker’s Silence
  • LafargeHolcim Says Cost-Cutting Drive Will Lift 2019 Profit
  • Commerzbank, Helaba Are Said to Drop Out of NordLB Bidding

In FX, the DXY was off bet levels but retaining an underlying bid with supportive month end flows alongside HIA and SOMA redemption (24.9bln comes due on Friday) all impacting, while market participants keep a close eye on Fed Chair Powell’s speech scheduled for later today where he may stop the USD in its tracks or exacerbate the rally. The index has gained more ground above 97.000 to just over 97.500 before losing some momentum but still on the course to challenge the YTD high at 97.693, technically if not fundamentally. EUR: more choppy trade for the single currency with EUR/USD trading around the middle of a 1.1267-1.1304 range having taken out stops at 1.1275. Italian politics keep weighing on the currency with the European Commission unimpressed as it will begin disciplinary actions on Italy regarding debt before Christmas. EU Commissioner Dombrovskis also added that a cut of 0.2% of the 2019 budget target is not enough. EUR/USD is being drawn towards a large amount of option expiries between 1.1275 – 1.1300 (1.5bln). Looking ahead, markets will be keeping a close eye on the budget discussion between the Italian PM, two Deputy PM and Finance Minister for any hints of a budge towards EC’s direction. CAD – Another victim of the USD strength and global trade jitters as Trump’s economic advisor Kudlow said the USMCA agreement is to be signed on Friday at the G20 summit, but sticking points remain in regards to dairy. Note, choppy oil prices have hardly helped the Loonie slide to fresh multi-month lows around 1.3330. JPY ­ – Edging closer to 114.00 vs. the buck with heavy option expiries around 113.50-55 (1.47bln) and 114.00 (1.9bln). EM – Mostly weaker as the greenback hold firm with RUB as the standout underperformer amid the ongoing escalation between Russia and Ukraine, though Germany and France stated they are against stricter Russian sanctions for now, while there were witness reports of a Russian minesweeper ship heading towards the Sea of Azov share by Russia and Ukraine. On the flip side, the Russian Central Bank governor emerged earlier with a hawkish tilt whilst keeping options open for the next meeting. Note, USD/RUB is at 67.4000.

In commodities, Brent (-0.4%) and WTI (-0.1%) are lower heading into the US open after initially trading positive. A larger than expected build in API crude stockpiles of +3.453mln compared to the expected build of +0.8mln had little impact on the price rebound at the time. Additionally, three North Sea forties crude cargoes which were scheduled to load in December have been cancelled due to the temporary closure of the 150,000 BPD capacity Buzzard oilfield. Saudi Energy minister Al Falih stated this morning that Saudi will not and cannot reduce output on their own, and is hopeful that upcoming meetings will result in agreement to stabilise the market. Gold is slightly lower as the dollar continues to firm, although the yellow metal has rebounded from lows of USD 1211.3/oz in the previous session. Separately, copper is higher following a 3-session decline although, gains for the metal have been restricted by ongoing US-China tensions, with the most recent comments coming from White House Economic Advisor Kudlow saying that US President Trump is prepared to raise tariffs if G20 talks are not constructive.

Looking at the day ahead, the focus for the market is likely to be squarely with Fed Chair Powell’s  speech. Away from that we also have the second revision of Q3 GDP in the US where no change from the +3.5% qoq saar estimate is expected. The October advance goods trade balance reading should also be closely watched with the consensus expecting a widening in the deficit to $77bn from $76bn last month. Also due out in the US will be October new home sales and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index print.  It is another busy day for ECB speakers however with Coeure, Guindos and Praet all due to speak. The BoE’s Carney will also speak at the Financial Stability Report press conference this afternoon when we will also get the latest annual bank stress test results.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -0.1%
  • 8:30am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%, Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.1%
  • 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $77.0b deficit, prior $76.0b deficit, revised $76.3b deficit
  • 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 3.5%, prior 3.5%; Personal Consumption, est. 3.9%, prior 4.0%
  • 8:30am: Core PCE QoQ, est. 1.6%, prior 1.6%
  • 10am: New Home Sales, est. 575,000, prior 553,000
  • 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 15, prior 15
  • 12pm: Fed’s Powell Speaks to Economic Club of New York

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

One thing I haven’t heard much about this year is a Santa Claus rally but the US has now had two up days in a row for the first time since mid month so maybe Santa is trying to get some momentum going. In fact given the conviction with which markets have moved in recent weeks, yesterday was a actually a rare calmer day with US equities opening lower but floating upward into their close. The S&P 500 ended +0.33% despite opening down -0.66%, while the DOW gained +0.44% and the NASDAQ closed flat. Attention continues to focus on this weekend’s meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. The White House’s top economic advisor Larry Kudlow confirmed today that the two leaders will have dinner on Saturday night at the G-20 in Buenos Aires. He said that “there is a good possibility that we can make a deal” and “I don’t want to go overboard, but he [Trump] has indicated some optimism.” So hopes are continuing to build, and emerging market equities, which would benefit from a benign trade outcome, outperformed yesterday gaining +0.70%.

Apple continues to struggle and traded -0.22% lower yesterday as concerns continue regarding the company’s demand outlook and possible tariffs on components for their goods. Notably, Microsoft overtook it to become the world’s largest company by market cap again for the first time since October 2003! The last time Microsoft was larger than Apple was back in May 2010 (though at that time, Exxon Mobile was larger than either of the tech giants). Since Apple peaked in early October, it has shed around $300 billion of market cap, while Microsoft has shed ‘only’ $60 billion, or the equivalent of Pakistan’s GDP to the equivalent of Panama’s respectively. So in 7 weeks Apple has lost the entire annual GDP of a country with 197 million people in terms of market cap.

Europe struggled after an early positive open to close slightly lower across the board with the STOXX 600 ending -0.26%. Part of the reason for the dip in Europe seemed to lie with a story in the German business magazine WirtschaftsWoche (WiWo) which reported that President Trump may, as soon as next week, impose tariffs on cars imported into the US. However the details of the story appeared vague with the source also referencing “EU circles,” while the EU later rebutted the story. That said, autos lagged the wider market in the STOXX 600 yesterday with the sector down -2.52% with EU Trade Commissioner Malmstrom also repeating the warning of the risk of US tariffs on cars.

Making much less of impact on markets yesterday than his speech from two weeks ago were the comments from Fed Vice-Chair Clarida. It’s hard to argue that there was much new information for the market with many of his points a rehash from the October speech. Interestingly, there was no mention of financial conditions, global growth, or recent market volatility which is perhaps a touch hawkish at the margin, as it potentially signals the Fed isn’t hugely concerned about recent developments. Also, Clarida had previously outlined both upside and downside risks to the inflation outlook, but yesterday he dropped his reference to the downside scenario. The flip side however was Clarida’s mention that market- and survey-based measures of inflation expectations had slipped and also that, with an uncertain r-star, the Fed should infer its level from incoming market and economic data. Treasuries appeared fairly nonfussed though with 10-year yields moving as much as +1.8bps higher but quickly snapping back before ending the session close to flat at 3.055%. The USD index gained +0.31%. Later in the session, Chicago Fed President Evans highlighted that inflation is at target and said he favours getting policy back to neutral. The market did not react, but his comments are significant as he will be a voting member of the FOMC in 2019. His most recent vote was a dissent against the rate hike in December 2017.

Staying with the Fed, today the baton passes to Fed Chair Powell when he speaks at the Economic Club of New York at 5pm GMT on “The Federal Reserve’s framework for monitoring financial stability.” Our US economists previously highlighted that they expect Powell to reiterate the Fed’s plan to get back to neutral. However, since Powell has previously emphasized that neutral is highly uncertain, they are also watching for any hints that Powell sees recent market developments and/or slower activity in rate sensitive sectors like housing and capex as evidence that neutral could be lower than previously thought.

This morning in Asia markets are following Wall Street’s lead with Nikkei (+0.96%), Hang Seng (+0.91%), Shanghai Comp (+0.86%) and Kospi (+0.30%) all up with a rally largely driven by technology shares. Elsewhere, futures on S&P 500 (+0.03%) are pointing towards a flat start.

Moving on. Yesterday’s slew of data in the US was unlikely to move the dial for policy makers much at the Fed. The S&P CoreLogic National Home Price Index rose 0.33% mom and 5.15% yoy on a seasonally adjusted basis, roughly in line with expectations. The FHFA purchase only house price index rose +0.2%, the third weakest month since January 2015. Higher interest rates and tax changes continue to weigh on the housing sector. On the other hand, consumer confidence and the labour market continue to look strong, with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index printing at 135.7 as expected, down 2.2pts but near its multi-decade high. The labour market subindex rose to 34.4, a new cycle high.

In other news, the daily Italy update consisted of another comment from the League suggesting that the deficit could be lowered to the 2.2% to 2.3% range, this time from Armando Siri. Reuters also reported that EU government delegates are today expected to back the EC’s disciplinary move against Italy, however a formal disciplinary proceeding may not begin until February. Also out yesterday was an MNI article suggesting that the ECB might be willing to consider OMT as an option for Italy should spreads come under further pressure. The story did appear to be rightly ignored by the market however, especially considering that OMT is conditional on an ESM programme. We are not close to being there yet, even if our head of research David Folkerts-Landau believes that the ESM and structural reforms will need to eventually be negotiated together in a grand bargain to deal with the Italian problem (see the op-ed here from David).

After a good run, BTPs were slightly weaker yesterday with two-year yields closing +3.3bps higher and 10-year yields +2.0bps. As we go to print Italian daily Corriere Della Sera reported PM Conte as saying that dealing with the EU over the budget wont be easy while adding that Italy will push ahead with reforms as social stability is more important for Italy. Elsewhere, the EC VP  Dombrovskis said in an interview with La Stampa that Italy needs a “significant correction” of its budget. Indeed as we’re pressing the send button HB is reporting that the EU will open deficit procedures before Christmas. So the pressure is still high even if the news flow has improved of late.

Over to Brexit, where Prime Minister May continues to try to sell her Brexit Withdrawal Agreement to the public and to lawmakers. The leader of the DUP, Arlene Foster, said yesterday that “as far as I can see, this [deal] is not going through parliament” and the pound dropped -0.73% versus the dollar, as passage looks less and less likely and a hangover from the Trump comments the previous night on it being a better deal for the EU and that it precludes a UK/US free trade deal percolated. Nevertheless, a reminder that we turned bullish on the pound on Monday due to two key factors: first, the Government will allow amendments during the legislation process, and second, Labour has signaled their willingness to work through the amendment channel rather than try to topple the government. Together, these ingredients should enable the ‘soft Brexit’ majority in Parliament to coalesce around a non-disruptive exit plan. Voting on the motion to accept or reject the Brexit deal will start in the House of Commons at 7 p.m. on December 11 but the “Meaningful Vote” debate will start on December 4. There will be five days of 8hrs debate, each led by a different cabinet minister. So we may get an idea of potential amendments from next week.

As far as the day ahead is concerned, as noted earlier the focus for the market is likely to be squarely with Fed Chair Powell’s  speech. Away from that we also have the second revision of Q3 GDP in the US where no change from the +3.5% qoq saar estimate is expected. The October advance goods trade balance reading should also be closely watched with the consensus expecting a widening in the deficit to $77bn from $76bn last month. Also due out in the US will be October new home sales and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index print. This morning in Europe it’s quiet with December consumer confidence in Germany and  the October M3 money supply reading for the Euro Area the only data due. It is another busy day for ECB speakers however with Coeure, Guindos and Praet all due to speak. The BoE’s Carney will also speak at the Financial Stability Report press conference this afternoon when we will also get the latest annual bank stress test results.

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.06 POINTS OR 1.05% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 350.60 POINTS OR 1.33% //The Nikkei closed UP 224.62 OR 1.02%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .05%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9534 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil UP to 51.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.09 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.9534AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9520: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

END

3 C CHINA

China responds to the trade war by comparing it to playing with fire.  However China rules out selling USA treasuries as a trade weapon

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Like Playing With Fire” – China Rules Out Treasury-Selling As Trade Weapon

Shortly after China’s ambassador to the US warned of “dire consequences” of the ongoing trade tensions between US and China, even going so far as threatening “all out war,” there was, at least for now, some silver lining in the rehtoric.

Whilst willing to threaten kinetic war, Ambassador Cui Tiankai told Reuters that he does not believe Beijing is seriously considering using its massive U.S. Treasury debt holdings as a weapon in the U.S.-China trade war.

When asked if China would consider selling Treasuries or reducing purchases should trade tensions worsen, he replied:

“We don’t want to cause any financial instability in global markets. This is very dangerous, this is like playing with fire,”

This comment comes, as is clear from the chart below, with China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries down to the lowest level since mid-2017 as the world’s second-largest economy sold US reserves to stabilize the yuan which has been depreciating in recent months due to the ongoing trade war.

Cui was not done however, adding that with China’s position as the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury debt (with $1.15 trillion according to the latest Treasury data) was a good example of the economic interdependence between the United States and China – a relationship that he said would be nearly impossible and dangerous to untangle:

“I don’t think anybody in Beijing is thinking seriously about this. It could backfire,” he added.

Backfire indeed – this is why such an act was called the ‘nuclear option’ when we previously discussed the potential methods of retaliation China has available to it in its fight with Trump.

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

In a stunning dramatic reversal, Theresa May will now allow Parliament to change parts of the Brexit deal.

(courtesy zerohedge)

In Dramatic Reversal, Theresa May Will Allow

Parliament To Change Brexit Deal

The Brexit-related chaos of the past month sent European stocks reeling and made the pound “untradeable” (at least, for a brief time). But traders could have avoided these headaches if they had simply looked past the squabbling to understand a larger truth: Most of the squabbling between May, the Tory Brexiteers and the EU was essentially political theater orchestrated to make a revised Brexit plan where the UK achieves something closer to the “Norway-plus” model politically palatable.(Harvey: Norway model: they are part of the EEA and enjoy the fruits of European trade but contribute sums of money to the EU instead of being part of the EU)

And after markets were given their first peek behind the curtain earlier this week after reports that the EU wouldn’t consider a renegotiation until Parliament rejects the deal, Bloomberg has followed up with the latest indication that May’s insistence on her deal being the “best and only” deal on the table was just an example of the prime minister saying what needed to be said.

Believing that her deal stood any chance of passing would border on delusional, so any practical tactician – and by all accounts, May is nothing but practical – would, accepting this, pivot toward the next-best thing: doing “everything in their power” to strengthen the UK’s negotiating position to win more favorable terms. And it appears May has done just that.

May

Because, according to Bloomberg, just days after her Brexit plan was “finalized” during a meeting of EU states over the weekend, the prime minister is reportedly ready to public acknowledge a longstanding reality: That, ultimately, Parliament must be allowed to write their own deal if anything is expected to pass. And to that end, May has reportedly dropped her resistance to parliamentary rewrites, and is instead moving toward holding a “meaningful vote“, which would allow Parliament to propose amendments to her deal before voting on which amendments to accept, and which to deny, before approving the revised agreement.

Traders welcomed the news, as the pound climbed back above $1.28 to just below its highs from Tuesday.

Given the EU’s intransigence on the issue, this appears to be the best course for ensuring that the UK isn’t trapped in the trade bloc by the “Irish backstop.”

The plans were disclosed by a U.K. official who asked not to be identified, because the plans are private.Parliamentary business managers from the different parties are still hammering out the details of how the vote will be held, but the government’s aim is to produce a plan that its opponents, internal and external, can’t object to.

Officials believe that no alternative to May’s option will command a majority in the Commons either, and a series of votes on the amendments could demonstrate that. Labour members are likely to be ordered not to support a second referendum, for example.

If other options are indeed voted down, it will add force to May’s argument that hers is the only way to avoid crashing out of the EU with no deal.

For those who aren’t intimately familiar with parliamentary proceedings in the UK, here’s a rundown of how the “Meaningful Vote” would play out:

  • Starting Tuesday Dec. 4, there will be five days of eight-hour debates, with a break from Dec 7-9.
  • Each day’s debate will be led by a different Cabinet minister, focusing discussion on their brief.
  • Voting will start at 7 p.m. on Tuesday Dec. 11.
  • The Commons will vote on a series of amendments to the government’s motion, likely to include calls for another referendum, or for the government to seek a customs union with the European Union.
  • Each vote will take around 15 minutes.
  • Finally, the Commons will vote on the government’s motion, including any amendments that passed.

But just as May must maintain the perception that she is doing everything she can to pass the deal in its current form, the EU can’t be seen giving the UK a pass. So shortly after Bloomberg published its report, the Guardian, a British newspaper, followed up with what sounded like a warning: If the Commons doesn’t accept the deal in its current form, the EU will start preparing for a “no deal” Brexit scenario. EU leaders quoted in the story insisted that negotiations have been closed, and that the notion the deal could be changed or reopened is “completely unrealistic.”

Brussels will also plough on with the ratification process of the withdrawal agreement in the European parliament to ensure the bloc is prepared for whatever British politics throws up in the coming months.

“Everyone needs to take their own responsibility,” an EU source said, in an echo of comments recently made by the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier.

The EU is rallying around Jean-Claude Juncker’s insistence that the deal on the table is the “only one possible” given the UK’s decision to leave the single market and customs union.

The idea that the bloc would revise the withdrawal agreement, including the contentious backstop solution for avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland, is described as “completely unrealistic.”

But the objections of the other EU states would likely do little to dampen support for a “pivot” toward a plan that would lay the groundwork for “Norway plus”, an alternative that has been gaining traction in recent days.

The possibility of the British government pivoting towards membership of the European Economic Area (EEA) and the European Free Trade Association following a rejection in parliament of the prime minister’s deal is gathering momentum in the Commons.

Under the plan, known as “Norway-plus,” with reference to the Nordic country’s arrangements with the bloc, the UK would also stay in a customs union with the EU.

And as if they needed one more reason to oppose the deal, the Financial Times reported Wednesday that May’s own government has forecast that her Brexit plan would shrink the UK’s GDP by 4 percentage points over the long term. But this forecast is essentially a garnish for Brexiteers’. They already have all the leverage they need to ensure that their preferred deal wins out.

end

Italy

This is huge:  traders shocked as the largest Italian bank, Unicredit, was forced to pay the equivalent of 420 basis points over the euro swap rate.  In January it pad only 70 basis over swaps on a 5 yr bond.  Italian banks are now in jeopardy of default.  Remember that they have gorged themselves with a massive amount of sovereign debt and that debt is falling in value

(courtesy zerohedge)

Traders Shocked As Largest Italian Bank Forced To Pay Six Times More Interest To Sell Bonds

In the clearest indication yet of just how severe the recent spike in Italian yields has been on the country’s financial institutions, Italy’s largest bank, UniCredit, surprised the market today when it sold $3 billion in dollar denominated five-year bonds. To find a willing buyer, the bank had to pay the equivalent of 420 basis points over the euro swap rate, which is six times more than the 70 bps over swaps it paid on five-year euro senior non-preferred bonds just this past January.

The spread on the new issue was a shock as it represented a nearly 150bps concession to current market rates, and is an indication of just how much even the strongest Italian banks have to pay up if they hope to access capital markets during the ongoing Italian political turmoil.

According to the bank, the sale will help support the Italian bank’s capital position and boost its subordination ratio by about 73 basis points.

And when we say the market was surprised, it wasn’t just by how much UniCredit had to pay, but how many buyers turned up for the sale: just one, namely the world’s largest fixed income manager, Pimco, which was the sole buyer of the bonds.

UniCredit’s decision to raise funding privately with just one investor suggests that analysts are skeptical about the wider market’s appetite for Italian bank bonds, said Jakub Lichwa, a credit strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in London: “The signal would have been far stronger if they had come to market with and built an order book at this level,” he said.

Which is ironic considering that even with a 150bps concession to market, the bank was still unsure it would find willing buyers.

Ironically, UniCredit said that the transaction “demonstrates UniCredit’s ability to access the market in all conditions,” which, of course, is precisely the opposite of what happened as the bank was forced to not only massively overpay, but also to approach just one buyer amid fears it would be rebuked by a broader syndicate.

UniCredit’s surging funding costs are indicative of the problem faced by most of its peers as the rift between Rome and Brussels over the country’s budget has driven up debt yields and widened the spread between Italian bonds and benchmark German equivalents. Banks are also set to lose low-cost funding as long-term loans from the European Central Bank come due, while overnight ECB sources indicated that no new TLTRO will be forthcoming, perhaps as a bargaining chip to make sure Rome concedes to Brussels in the ongoing deficit debate which threatens to blow out yields far higher.

Commenting on the surprise “drive by” bond sale, ABN Amro NV strategist Tom Kinmonth wrotes that the possibility that Italy’s sovereign debt may be downgraded further may justify doing the bond sale now. While the price, far above the market rate, will impact the UniCredit’s profitability “it has placed the bank in a better position on capital for a prolonged period of time.”

As for why Pimco was UniCredit’s sole buyer, Bloomberg notes that the Newport Beach-based firm was one of two buyers that took control of an unprecedented $20 billion package of non-performing loans sold by the bank earlier this year. Also, at the end of 2016, Pimco was among a handful of investors that were offered the bank’s riskiest bonds, people with knowledge of the matter said at the time.

And while UniCredit was successful in its directly negotiated, and massively overpriced, sale to Pimco, others have not been so lucky, with Italian banks issuing only €60.5 billion ($68 billion) of bonds so far this year, the least since 2013.

Which is why should the Italian political standoff with the EU not reach a favorable resolution soon, Italian banks – and their rising funding needs – will be first in line, especially once “lo spread” crosses 400bps, which the Italian government had made clear previously, is the “red line” before all hell breaks loose.

end
FRANCE 
DIESEL, is out of supply due to the constant strikes inside France. The French refinery strike has deepened the crisis as the populace take out their anger on a diesel tax initiated by Macron
(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

European Gas Stations Out Of Diesel: French Refinery Strike Deepens Crisis

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Diesel is in short supply in Europe. The situation is about to worsen as the biggest French refinery is shutting down.

Bloomberg reports Europe’s Diesel Woes Deepen as Strike Halts French Oil Refinery.

Total SA, France’s biggest refiner, is in the process of shutting its largest plant in the country, the 247,000-barrel-a-day Gonfreville facility in Normandy, due to a labor dispute, a spokeswoman for the company said on Tuesday. A few hundred miles away, in the Netherlands, retail fuel stations are running out of supplies because of shipping constraints on the Rhine, according to Royal Dutch Shell Plc.

Shell said Nov. 20 that it cut production at its Rheinland refining site, the biggest complex of its kind in Germany, due to low water levels on the Rhine. In a tweet on Tuesday, the company said that it was temporarily unable to supply some unmanned fuel stations in the Netherlands.

Gas stations in Germany had already been running dry due to the situation on the Rhine, a major petroleum product transportation corridor that runs northwest from the Swiss Alps all the way to the Netherlands. Switzerland released emergency fuel stockpiles because of the situation on the river.

The premium per barrel of diesel over Brent crude – another indicator of market strength – was at $15.96 on Tuesday, the highest for the time of year in six years.

Diesel Price Poised to Soar

This shutdown cannot possibly come at a worse time for French President Emmanuel Macron.

Macron is already reeling over a protest of his diesel tax.

Diesel Tax Turns Violent

People from across France went to Paris to let the president know how they feel about the taxes in general and the tax on diesel. The [Diesel Tax Protests](Diesel Protests in France Turn Violent) then turned violent.

Expect more reactions when the price skyrockets.

Macron Proposes Shutting Down Nuclear Power

In another poorly-timed announcement, France president Emmanuel Macron unveils plan to reduce reliance on nuclear energy.

Amid daily protests about high energy prices, Mr Macron said Francewill shut down 14 nuclear reactors by 2035.

France depends more on nuclear energy than any other country, getting about three-quarters of its electricity from its 19 nuclear plants.

The French leader promised to develop renewable energy instead, saying his priority is weaning France’s economy from fuel that contributes to global warming.

Say What?

Excuse me for pointing out that nuclear energy does not add to greenhouse gasses, not that this whole global warming scare makes much sense in the first place.

Macron’s Latest Brainchild

Mr Macron also said the government will find a way to delay tax increases on fuel during periods when world oil prices are rising.

Excuse me for pointing out that the diesel protest came when oil prices were falling.

In an attempt to calm the protesters, Mr Macron proposed a three-month consultation with associations and activist groups, including the so-called “yellow jackets” who have led the recent protests, about how best to handle the rising energy costs.

Yeah right. That’s sure to work.

Floating in Outer Space

Courtesy of the New York Times, here’s the comment of the day:

He seems to be deaf,” said Fabrice Schlegel, who has helped lead some of the citizen protests that have convulsed France in recent weeks.

‘‘He’s talking to us about the ‘ecological transition.’ This is a politician who is floating in outer space.”

Macron’s Foot in Mouth Disease

Macron’s diesel and nuclear gaffes are on top of his threat to Keep EU in Perpetual “Temporary” Customs Union Backstop.

Actually, I am happy for Macron for those custom union threats.

Hopefully it will wake up the UK parliament enough to vote down this pathetic deal that Theresa May is attempting to cram down the UK’s throat.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Russia/UKRAINE/

This is what we are afraid of:  Russia deploying S 400 missiles to the Crimea in a military showdown with the Ukraine

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Russia Deploys S-400 Missiles To Crimea In Military

Showdown With Ukraine

Predictably the crisis that began on Sunday between Russia and Ukraine in the Kerch Strait is quickly worsening as Russia has announced plans to deploy more of its advanced S-400 surface-to-air missile systems to Crimea.

Adding to tensions, Reuters has further reported that a Russian warship has been dispatched to the Sea of Azov — waters used by both countries and near where the Russian Navy seized Ukrainian vessels and crew for what Moscow condemned as “maneuvering dangerously” and illegal entry into Russian territory.

S-400 anti-missile defense system, via TASSThe warship was seen departing a Crimean port by a Reuters correspondent on Wednesday and was described as the Russian navy minesweeper ship, the Vice-Admiral Zakharin, going in the direction of the Sea of Azov.

This comes a day after Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko issued provocative statements during a televised interview on Tuesday that his country is “under threat of full-scale war with Russia” while seeking to justify martial law.

The Ukrainian president added that “the number of units that have been deployed along our border – what’s more, along its full length – has grown dramatically.” He referenced unspecified intelligence reports pointing to Moscow tripling its forces along the border since Crimea joined Russia in 2014.

Though likely the plans were already in motion, the timing of the S-400 deployment announcement is designed to send a strong message to the West, which is also building up its forces as both the UK and US are reportedly injecting more military hardware and troops into Ukraine.

According to TASS:

A division set of Russia’s S-400 Triumph air defense system has undergone tests and will soon be put on combat duty in Crimea, the Southern Military District’s press service said on Wednesday.

The personnel of the air defense missile unit of the 4th army of the Air Force and the Southern Military District deployed to Crimea has started preparing the equipment to be transported by rail to a permanent base. “In the near future, the new system will enter combat duty to defend Russia’s airspace, replacing the previous air defense system,” the spokesman explained.

The other deeply interesting aspect to the timing of the entire crisis, made more alarming for the Ukrainian population in particular after Poroshenko’s announcing the implementation of martial law until at least January to combat “growing aggression” from Russia, is that it’s occurring just days ahead the planned meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin at the G20 in Argentina later this week.

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

CANADA

Canada’s Trudeau is bailing out the Media and thus we again will lose their independence

(courtesy Mansur/Gatestone Institute)

Canada’s Treacherous “Faustian Bargain”

Authored by Salim Mansur via The Gatestone Institute,

The Canadian government’s recent announcement that it will be providing more than CDN $600 million (USD $455 million) over the next five years to bail out the country’s financially strapped media outlets — as part of the fall fiscal update about the federal budget ahead of the 2019 federal election — is not as innocent as it may seem.

In response to the announcement, the heads of Canada’s media organizations promptly popped open the proverbial champagne and raised their glasses to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Unifor, a national union that represents Canadian journalists, was even more jubilant. It felt vindicated that its slogan of “Resistance” — which it touts as Conservative Party opposition leader Andrew Scheer’s “worst nightmare” — had so swiftly resulted in opening the government’s wallet, and handing out taxpayers’ money, to an industry that should actually be fighting to remain steadfastly independent of any form of government backing.

This is what a “free press” is presumably all about, after all; not as in countries with totalitarian regimes, such as the once-Czarist Russia-turned communist Soviet Union-turned Putinist Russia, or Maoist China, or the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, or the Islamic Republic of Iran, or Castroist Cuba and many third-world states in which the press is simply a propaganda tool of the government, subjected to the dictates and whim of its leader.

The recipients of Trudeau’s “gift” will argue that their editorial independence could not possibly be hindered — heaven forfend! — in such a liberal democracy as Canada. Their irreproachable backs will go up at the mere suggestion that their journalistic integrity might be compromised by entering into a financial deal with the powers-that-be.

No matter how much ink they spill or bytes they waste defending their virtue, however, they will not be able to fool the public about the nature of this Faustian bargain, which is tantamount to being bought by Trudeau’s Liberal Party in exchange for favorable press ahead of the next federal election.

Canadians ought to recoil from this “slippery slope” to some version of a state-controlled society that this deal has created. How ironic that the announcement of the media bailout came less than a week after the 100th anniversary of the First World War armistice and Remembrance Day, during which Canadians honored the memory of countrymen killed and maimed in wars fought for freedom against the advance of tyranny.

Perhaps this deal should not have come as a surprise, however, considering Trudeau’s stated position that Canada is a post-national state with no core identity. In other words, in Trudeau’s Canada there is no tradition to revere, no sacred values to defend and no identity to preserve.

Trudeau, it seems, adheres to the principle of globalism, according to which the world is borderless, and the idea of sovereign nation-states is both reactionary and obsolete. In this borderless world, the governing body is the unelected, untransparentunaccountablecorrupt United Nations and its agencies, which possess the authority to legislate international law that is then enforced by member states.

Trudeau appears determined to turn Canada into a laboratory of the globalist agenda. This is probably why he is rushing to embrace the UN-proposed Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, to be adopted at the Intergovernmental Conference in Marrakech, Morocco, on December 10-11, 2018. Most Canadians are unaware of the content of the Global Compact, which their government has committed to sign. Yet it is in the context of this agreement that various decisions taken by the Trudeau government can be explained — decisions on issues such as immigration, climate change, “Islamophobia” and the $600 million media bailout.

The Global Compact is a document detailing the requirements for member-states to adopt as policy that amounts to unfettered global migration. Trudeau has bought into this UN agenda and has decided to impose it on the Canadian people without their prior knowledge or consent.

Objective 17 of the Global Compact states:

“We commit to eliminate all forms of discrimination, condemn and counter expressions, acts and manifestations of racism, racial discrimination, violence, xenophobia and related intolerance against all migrants in conformity with international human rights law. We further commit to promote an open and evidence-based public discourse on migration and migrants in partnership with all parts of society, that generates a more realistic, humane and constructive perception in this regard. We also commit to protect freedom of expression in accordance with international law, recognizing that an open and free debate contributes to a comprehensive understanding of all aspects of migration.” [Emphasis added.]

In pursuance of the above, member-states are required, therefore, to:

“Promote independent, objective and quality reporting of media outlets, including internet-based information, including by sensitizing and educating media professionals on migration-related issues and terminology, investing in ethical reporting standards and advertising, and stopping allocation of public funding or material support to media outlets that systematically promote intolerance, xenophobia, racism and other forms of discrimination towards migrants in full respect for the freedom of the media.” [Emphases added.]

Translated from UN-speak, this means that media outlets of member-states are required to adhere to the objectives adopted in the Global Compact, and refrain from any critical discussions of these objectives that would be deemed as not “ethical and against UN norms or standards consistent with the ideology of globalism. This helps to explain the Trudeau government’s generous handout to the Canadian media. In this light, the $600 million can be viewed as a form of secretive soft control and censorship, ensuring that the Canadian press abides by the requirements of the Global Compact.

In accepting the money, the Canadian media as a whole becomes no different from the national public broadcaster CBC, all of whose news and opinion are slanted to the center-left, espousing the Liberal Party’s political, economic and cultural positions – with an occasional token and highly controlled conservative view in the mix for the purpose of maintaining the façade of free speech.

The gradual elimination of free speech is characteristic of the Trudeau government, which last year adopted parliamentary motion M-103, condemning any critical discussion of Islam and Muslims as “Islamophobia.” “Islamophobia,” in UN-speak, is bigotry and racism, and could be subject to censorship or liable to criminal prosecution under the “hate speech” provision of the human rights commissions in Canada. This is consistent with the recent ruling by the European Court of Human Rights, that criticism of the Prophet of Islam is tantamount to inciting hatred and is not, therefore, protected free speech. It is also consistent with the effort of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation -– the largest bloc of 57 member-states in the UN — to declare any criticism or insult of the founder of Islam and the religion itself as blasphemy in accordance with Islamic shariah law.

There is a pattern emerging that indicates the sort of country that Trudeau and his Liberal Party are trying to create: a borderless Canada where UN-devised international law will take precedence over legislation enacted by elected representatives of the Canadian people who go against it.

If this process is not reversed, Canadians — inundated by mass-migration — will become citizens of the world; and Canada will become a multicultural North American protectorate of an emergent 21st century, UN-administered borderless world. In such a world, there is no room for freedom of speech or a free press. The Canadian media should think long and hard before selling its soul to Trudeau.

end

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

 

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1283 DOWN .0014 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 113.80  UP 0.007 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2795 UP   0.0053  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3310  UP .00015 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 14 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1283/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 27.06 POINTS OR 1.05%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 350,60 POINTS OR 1.33% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  0.05% /EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED  UP 224.62 POINTS OR 1.02%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 350.60 POINTS OR 1.33% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.06  POINTS OR 1.05%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN  0.05%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 224.62 POINTS OR 1.02%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1213.15

silver:$14.16

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.06% !!! DOWN 0 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.31 DOWN 0  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 97.37 UP 1  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.87% DOWN 2    in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.10%  UP 1  BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.54% DOWN 1  IN basis point yield from TUESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.26 DOWN 3   POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 172 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.35%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.91% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1287 DOWN .0010 or 10 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 113.97 UP  0 .174 OR 17 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2762 UP .0020( POUND UP 20 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 32 basis points to 1.3329

 

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This afternoon, the Euro was FELL BY 10 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1287

The Yen FELL to 113.97 for a LOSS of 17 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND GAINED 20 basis points, trading at 1.2762/

The Canadian dollar LOST 32  basis points to 1.3329

 

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.9534-  ON SHORE  (YUAN DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9458(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.2354

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.10%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 3.07 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.33 UP 1 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.46 UP 9 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 12.33 POINTS OR 0.18%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 10.23 POINTS  OR 0.09%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 0.09 POINTS OR 0.00%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 17.10 POINTS OR 0.19%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN: 35.22 POINTS OR 0.18%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 51.60 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 59.95 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    67.08  THE CROSS LOWER BY .01 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER by 01 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.2354 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.35 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :50.34

 

BRENT:58.61

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.06%..

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.35%/.

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1366 ( UP 69 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:113.764 DOWN .151 (YEN UP 15 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.84 DOWN 53 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2828 UP 86 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.2264

the Russian rouble:  67.07 UP 2 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 2 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3277 UP 19 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9539  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9390 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.35%

 

The Dow closed  UP 617.70 POINTS OR 2.50%

NASDAQ closed UP 208.89  points or 2.95% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  18.49 CLOSED DOWN  0.53

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.706%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

‘Powell Put’ Sparks Buying-Panic, Dovish Dollar Dump

Seemed appropriate…

..

 

 

What did China know?

 

 

What did China know? Stocks in Shanghai soared overnight (after US stocks faded) ahead of today’s surge in US stocks post-Powell…

 

European stocks drifted modestly lower…

 

But today was all about Powell although we note market participants seem to have missed the nuance of the “just below the policy range” – as opposed to within one hike of being done… Nevertheless, Stocks, Bonds, & Gold all rallied post-Powell as the dollar sunk…

 

Powell’s flip-flop sparked the biggest buying panic since the Feb 9 VIXtermination… (and 2nd biggest uptick since Aug 2011)

But notice that the buying binge immediately faded…

 

Nasdaq led the day (up 3%!) but every market moved as one…

 

Futures show it was all Powell…

 

The Dow soared over 600 points, ramping back above its 200DMA almost tagging its 50/100 DMA…Up 1100 Points in 3 days

 

The S&P was up 2.3% – its biggest jump since March – which was followed by further pain…

 

All thanks to a giant short-squeeze… (biggest squeeze of the month)

zerohedge@zerohedge

And just as hedge funds turned net short…

FANG Stocks soared top fill last week’s gap-down drop…

 

GM made more headlines thanks to Trump today but ended higher…

 

But Tiffany didn’t…crashing 12% to 12-month lows…

 

Credit markets ripped tighter after Powell’s speech…

 

The 2Y Yield is unchanged since Powell’s hawkish comments, stocks are not..

 

Rate-hike expectations collapsed to a mere 25bps for next year (one hike)…

 

Treasury yields were mixed with the shorter-end falling (and longer-end rising) after Powell blinked…

 

The yield curve steepened dramatically after Powell’s dovish denouement…

BUT note that we also steepened on Powell’s October hawkfest

 

The dollar collapsed as Powell flip-flopped…

 

Once again, the dollar stalled its gains at a historically significant level…

 

And as the dollar sank, offshore Yuan spiked…

 

Commodities were a mixed bag with dollar weakness sending PMs and copper higher but inventory data not helping WTI…

 

WTI tumbled to fresh cycle lows…

 

Gold bounced off its 50 and 100 DMA spiking back above $1230…

 

So, did Powell “blink”? As Amherst noted:

“The markets are overreacting to what Powell said, perhaps partly because some of the newswire headlines don’t quite accurately convey the nuance of what he said…”

In fact, as the chart above shows, the market was already largely priced for this ‘blink’ – with barely a hike in 2019 and rate-cuts expected in 2020 and 2021.

And SMART money appears to know something major changed…

 

market trading

Dollar Dumps, Gold Jumps As Powell Abandons Hawkish “Long Way” From Neutral Stance

(courtesy zerohedge)

In a quite notable reversal of his rhetoric from a month ago, Fed Chair Powell seems to have abandoned his hawkish “long way” from neutral messaging, noting in his speech today that The Fed is “just below” the neutral range. The dollar dumped on this…

And as the dollar drops, gold pops…

Bond yields tumbled…

And stocks surged…

As Bloomberg’s Brendan Murray notes, there are the key takeaways from Powell’s prepared text:

  • Powell says rates “just below” range of estimates for neutral policy, raising the question of whether he’s walking back an earlier view that neutral was a longer way off
  • He says even after eight hikes since December 2015, rates are still low by historical standards
  • Powell explains Fed’s gradualism, saying the approach is meant to balance risks of moving too fast or too slowly
  • Powell says moving too fast would risk shortening U.S. expansion, moving too slow could risk higher inflation and destabilizing financial imbalances
  • Says the effects of Fed’s gradual hikes is uncertain, may take a year to realize
  • “We see no major asset class, however, where valuations appear far in excess of standard benchmarks”
  • Powell sees “great deal to like” about U.S. economic outlook, says he and FOMC are forecasting `continued solid growth’
  • Much of Powell’s speech dealt with financial stability, rating the overall risks “moderate”

Bloomberg U.S. economists Tim Mahedy and Yelena Shulyatyeva:

“Powell’s comment that rates are just below neutral is a step back from his comments earlier in the fall implying the FOMC still has a ways to go. This could be the first sign that the pace of rate hikes is set to slow next year.”

Ira Jersey, Chief Rates Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence:

We read Powell’s prepared text as preparing the market for a 2019 ‘pause’ or end of hikes.Markets haven’t believed the ‘dot plot’ but this could be first move where more hikes are priced out. Being ‘near neutral’ suggests the Fed is ‘nearly done.”

*  *  *

Full prepared remarks below

end

Dave Kranzler comments on the Powell speech and his take and I believe he is correct that the Fed Chairman just signalled that the next crisis is upon us

(courtesy Dave Kranzler/IRD)

Powell Just Signaled That The Next Crisis Is Here

 

November 28, 2018 Financial Markets, Housing Market, Market Manipulation, U.S. Economy credit crisis, Fed, FOMC, Home sales, mortgage rates, Powell, stock bubble

Housing and auto sales appear to have hit a wall over the last 8-12 weeks. To be sure, online holiday sales jumped significantly year over year, but brick-n-mortar sales were flat. The problem there: e-commerce is only about 10% of total retail sales. We won’t know until January how retail sales fared this holiday season. I know that, away from Wall Street carnival barkers, the retail industry is braced for disappointing holiday sales this year.

A subscriber asked my opinion on how and when a stock market collapse might play out. Here’s my response: “With the degree to which Central Banks now intervene in the markets, it’s very difficult if not impossible to make timing predictions. I would argue that, on a real inflation-adjusted GDP basis, the economy never recovered from 2008. I’m not alone in that assessment. A global economic decline likely started in 2008 but has been covered up by the extreme amount of money printed and credit created.

It’s really more of a question of when will the markets reflect or catch up to the underlying real fundamentals? We’re seeing the reality reflected in the extreme divergence in wealth and income between the upper 1% and the rest. In fact, the median middle class household has gone backwards economically since 2008. That fact is reflected in the decline of real average wages and the record level of household debt taken on in order for these households to pretend like they are at least been running place.”

The steep drop in housing and auto sales are signaling that the average household is up to its eyeballs in debt. Auto and credit card delinquency rates are starting to climb rapidly. Subprime auto debt delinquencies rates now exceed the delinquency rates in 2008/2009.

The Truth is in the details – Despite the large number of jobs supposedly created in October and YTD, the wage withholding data published by the Treasury does not support the number of new jobs as claimed by the Government. YTD wage-earner tax withholding has increased only 0.1% from 2017. This number is what it is. It would be difficult to manipulate. Despite the Trump tax cut, which really provided just a marginal benefit to wage- earners and thus only a slight negative effect on wage- earner tax withholding, the 0.1% increase is well below what should have been the growth rate in wage withholding given the alleged growth in wages and jobs. Also, most of the alleged jobs created in October were the product of the highly questionable “birth/death model” used to estimate the number of businesses opened and closed during the month. The point here is that true unemployment, notwithstanding the Labor Force Participation Rate, is much higher than the Government would like us to believe.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled today that the well-telegraphed December rate hike is likely the last in this cycle of rate-hikes, though he intimates the possibility of one hike in December. More likely, by the time the first FOMC meeting rolls around in 2019, the economy will be in a tail-spin, with debt and derivative bombs detonating. And it’s a good bet Trump will be looking to sign an Executive Order abolishing the Fed and giving the Treasury the authority to print money. The $3.3 billion pension bailout proposal circulating Congress will morph into $30 billion and then $300 billion proposal. 2008 redux. If you’re long the stock market, enjoy this short-squeeze bounce while it lasts

***

 

market data/

wow!! this is dramatic.  Tariffs are suppose to lessen deficits.  Instead the USA trade deficit soared to 77.2 billion dollars, with imports rising by only .1% but exports plunged by .6%

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Trade Deficit Soars To Record High As Exports Tumble

The October advanced trade balance (deficit) of goods worsened to $77.2 billion ($77.0 billion expected) from $76.3 billion in September.

  • Imports rose 0.1% in Oct. to $217.764b from $217.554b in Sept.
  • Exports fell 0.6% in Oct. to $140.517b from $141.303b in Sept.

This is a new record high deficit for Trump’s America

In December 2016, the US goods trade deficit was $63.485 billion.

In October 2018, the US goods trade deficit is $77.2 billion.

A dramatic rise of almost $14 billion since Trump’s election and trade war started.

Since this is an advance print, there is no color on China trade data.

end
The 2nd estimate of Q3 was expected to be higher due to all of the Trump spending.  The GDP number stuck at 3.5% as well as the all important spending shrank.  What saved the GDP number was inventories which soared
(courtesy zerohedge)

Q3 GDP Stuck At 3.5% As Revisions See Spending Shrink, Inventories Soar

With the US economy firing on all four cylinders heading into the 3rd quarter, largely thanks to the latent effects from Trump’s fiscal stimulus, the BEA released its second estimate of Q3 GDP which confirmed what we learned one month ago, namely that the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.5%, in line with both expectations and the first estimate released a month ago.

Combined with the 4.2% GDP growth in the second quarter,, the results capped the best back-to-back quarters since 2014. At the same time, growth is projected to moderate this quarter. Furthermore, just like last month, a quick look at the internals reveals some ugly details below the surface.

While household spending remained strong, rising 3.6% after 3.8% in Q2, the largest increase since Q4 2014, it shrank from the first estimate of 4.0%, and missed expectations of 3.9%, contributing 2.45% of the bottom line 3.500% GDP print (below the 2.69% in the first estimate), the main reason why the US economy grew as fast as it did in the third quarter was a build up in inventories, which contributed even more than was previously estimate, or some 2.27%, or 65% of the bottom line number. This was the biggest quarterly inventory stocking since the last quarter of 2011.

The biggest change from the prior report on GDP came from stronger business investment offsetting the decline in personal spending, while most other categories were in line with earlier readings.

Other revisions included an improvement in equipment spending which was revised up to a 3.5% rise from a 0.4% gain, while investment in structures showed a 1.7% drop compared with a previously reported decline of 7.9%.

Net exports subtracted 1.91 percentage point from growth, while inventories added provided a 2.27 point boost.

All other components of GDP were ugly, with nonresidential fixed investment, or spending on equipment, structures and intellectual property shrinking to 2.5% in 3Q after rising a blistering 8.7% in the prior quarter. Government spending increased at a 2.6 percent rate, revised from 3.3 percent. That added 0.44 point to growth.

Housing posted a third consecutive drag on GDP growth and reaffirmed that the industry has entered a broad slowdown. Residential investment fell 2.6% compared with an initially reported contraction of 4% .

Here is a breakdown of the less than stellar components:

  • Fixed Investment added 0.25% from the bottom line number
  • Exports subtracted -0.55% from the bottom line number
  • Imports subtracted -1.36% from the bottom line number

In other words, between CapEx and Net Trade, the US economy actually contracted by 1.7%.

The final offset was government consumption which added 0.55% in Q3, resulting in the following breakdown

Today’s report also showed that corporate pretax earnings rose 10.3% annualized from a year earlier, the most in six years, after a 7.3% advance in Q2:

  • Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased 5.1% after increasing 4.2%.
  • Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased 1.7% after increasing 3.7%.
  • Profits from the rest of the world increased 3.7% after decreasing 0.9%.

Gross domestic income rose 4%, the most since 2014.

Other details from today’s GDP report showed that the economy may have indeed peaked, with core PCE rising just 1.5% in 3Q after rising 2.1% prior quarter, missing expectations of a 1.6% print. The GDP price index came in line at 1.7% in 3Q after rising 3.0% prior quarter.

Separately, final sales to private domestic purchasers q/q rose 3.1% in 3Q after rising 4.3% prior quarter.

Meanwhile, rising risks to the outlook include the escalating trade war with China, a slowing global demand (see today’s Tiffany’s results) and rising borrowing costs, while the boost from President Donald Trump’s fiscal stimulus is expected to end next year.

END
Housing data continues to disappoint.  this time it is the most important of the three housing data entries:  new home sales. They crashed in Oct with the biggest plunge in over 7 yrs 8.9% month/month.  Now you can visually see that the USA economy collapsed as we entered October
(courtesy zerohedge)

New Home Sales Crash In October – Biggest Plunge Since 2011

Following the small MoM blip higher in existing home sales (though dismal YoY plunge), new home sales were expected to rebound in October (after plunging 5.5% MoM in September) but instead they utterly collapsed – crashing 8.9% MoM.

New home sales have now missed expectations for seven consecutive months

The drop in purchases was led by a 22.1 percent slump in the Midwest, and an 18.5 percent decrease in the Northeast. The South had a 7.7 percent decline while the West fell 3.2 percent.

Tumbling a massive 12% YoY – the biggest drop since April 2011…

And just for good measure, the median price tumbled to $309.7K from $321.3K, lowest since Feb 2017.

And supply is soaring…

But, but, but… Homebuilder valuations are back at their weakest since the great recession…

Buying opportunity?

end

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

 

Maryland reports that its oyster population collapsed and now they spark fears of overfishing

(courtesy zerohedge)

Maryland’s Oyster Population Collapses, Sparks

“Overfished” Fears

In the 1600s, oysters in the Chesapeake Bay were so plentiful that these saltwater bivalve molluscs were filtering the bay’s waters once a week.

As the Industrial Revolution kicked off new manufacturing processes in the period from about 1760 to between 1820 and 1840, the number of Chesapeake oysters began to decline due to over-harvesting.

In the last several decades, public and private interests in reviving the bay have stabilized oyster populations, but, according to a new study, the population has collapsed

Mike Wilberg of the University of Maryland’s Center for Environmental Science told Maryland’s Oyster Advisory Commission last week that Chesapeake Bay’s market-sized oyster population is approximately 300 million, or half the amount found in 1999.

Wilberg spent 18 months developing a new model that could accurately estimate the number of oysters in the bay. It is the region’s first modern assessment of the population.

His assessment was immediately peer reviewed due to the shocking discovery that even local government officials in Maryland and Virginia did not realize the severity of the collapse. 

The peer review stated Wilberg’s model was of working order and could be used to revise Maryland’s oyster management program, and some environmental groups are already demanding changes to Maryland’s law before the collapse turns into an ecological disaster.

The Chesapeake Bay Foundation told the Capital Gazette, the report has confirmed its worst fears about the bay’s oyster population.

“The state needs to develop a fishery management plan that protects existing and restored oyster reefs to significantly increase the overall oyster population,” Bay Foundation Maryland Executive Director Alison Prost said in a statement.

During the meeting, Shellfish Division Director Christopher Judy said a report about the assessment and oyster population management strategies would be sent to the state legislature Dec. 01.

During his presentation, Wilberg sectioned off the bay into 36 areas, giving a more in-depth view of the oyster population dynamics.

Between 1999 and 2002 the oyster population plummeted more than 600 million market-sized oysters to about 200 million, according to the report. Wilberg said there had not been a significant mortality event in the population since 2005.

“Some areas have been declining, others have been increasing or at least staying more stable over time,” he said.

The report specified 19 out of 36 areas of the bay were overfished in the 2017 to 18 season. Fishing levels in many parts of the bay were not sustainable.

How does this affect you?

Well, if you are an oyster aficionado, with the likes of “Skinny Dippers,” “Chesapeake Golds,” “Choptank Sweets,” “Holy Grails,” and “Sweet Jesus,” found only in the bay – new legislation by Maryland’s government could restrict the upcoming fishing season to prevent a further collapse thus limiting consumers to some of the country’s best oysters.

END

Mnuchin is lobbing the Fed to halt rate cuts but increase the speed of Fed roll off

((courtesy zerohedge)

 

Is Steve Mnuchin Lobbying The Fed To Halt Rate Hikes

Since President Trump first complained that Fed was “out of control” and “crazy”  for insisting on raising interest rates, more Wall Street luminaries and senior administration officials have begrudgingly admitted that President Trump’s attacks on the central bank (in addition to bashing the central bank for hiking rates, saying he’s “not even a little bit happy” with Fed Chair Powell, Trump said in an interview published last night that he’s displeased with its balance sheet unwind) might be justified in breaking with decades of precedent – or at least they understand that the president was simply trying to avoid becoming the “fall guy” for a decade of QE lunacy.  And with his job increasingly threatened by the unremitting selloff in US stocks, which President Trump regards as the most important barometer of his performance, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has apparently decided to try and do something about it.

Mnuchin

According to Bloomberg, the former Goldmanite has been informally polling market participants about whether they would rather see the central bank continue raising interest rates, or instead shift the bulk of its tightening to the balance sheet unwind. This suggests that the Treasury Secretary, whom Trump has reportedly blamed for selecting Jerome Powell to lead the central bank (though the president could have easily just kept the notoriously dovish Janet Yellen) is preparing to abandon decorum and embark on his own covert lobbying campaign to dissuade the central bank from hiking rates so aggressively. Here’s Bloomberg:

In an Oct. 30 meeting with a Treasury advisory committee that makes recommendations to the government quarterly on its debt sales, Mnuchin asked which they favored — an accelerated balance sheet run-down or further rate hikes — if they had to choose one or the other, according to the six people, who asked not to be identified because the conversation was private. One of the people said that Mnuchin asked the question out of curiosity of what bond market participants thought of the two alternatives before the Fed.

Mnuchin raised the question during a regularly scheduled quarterly meeting with the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, or TBAC, which includes representatives from investment funds and banks. Its members include executives from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citadel LLC and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The TBAC provides the secretary a chance to engage with bond market participants to help inform debt management plans, a Treasury spokesman said, declining to elaborate further.

But ultimately, whether the Fed continues with 3-4 rate hikes next year, or chooses to pull back further on its reinvestment of Treasuries and MBS as they roll off its balance sheet, when it comes to maintaining market stability, neither option looks particularly attractive, especially since many believe the tightening impact from the balance sheet rolloff is even higher than from rate hikes alone.

While rate hikes have been blamed by Wall Street and the president for pushing stocks into correction territory, the less-popular narrative of balance sheet runoff is also driving tighter financial conditions as the tide that lifted all assets during the recovery is finally going out. Just look at a chart of the 10-year yield compared with the balance sheet runoff.

Fed

With the Fed entering ‘peak unwind’ of its balance sheet, the central bank is more than offsetting the bid from corporate buybacks.

And given the shifting narrative surrounding the recent slowdown in US economic data (which, in theory, should give the “data dependent” Fed reason to re-calibrate)…

Surprise

accelerating the unwind would risk a destabilizing spike in Treasury yields that could topple stocks and high-yield credit alike, further depressing economic growth.

Of course, if Trump knew what was good for him, he’d know that he’d be better off not saying anything, and instead allowing the Fed to undertake the course correction necessary to ensure that it continues to protect its unofficial “third mandate” on its own terms – because bashing the central bank only risks painting it into a corner as policy makers are forced to worry about saving face to preserve the central bank’s “credibility.”

Already, Powell and Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida have started laying out a case for slowing rate hikes in 2019 as soon as it became clear that the selloff wasn’t letting up. But this signaling has been largely implicit. Because, as many seasoned Fed watchers understand, the first rule of the “third mandate” is you don’t talk about the “third mandate.”

Finally, if Trump really wants the Fed to stop raising rates or perhaps even cut and launch another round of QE, all Trump needs to do is “ensure” that the US economy suffered a sharp, but brief, slump. In the long-run, with 2020 looming, Trump would be far better served to have this occur sooner, when the Fed’s change in monetary policy will have time to affect markets and the economy, than wait and suffer a recession just ahead of the next presidential election.

end
this is obvious:  with the huge number of fires and hurricanes, the cost to insure a home is about to jump big time.
A good commentary from John Rubino, dollar collapse
(courtesy John Rubino/Dollar Collapse)

The Cost Of Insurance Is About To Jump

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

The argument over whether we’re in for global warming or global cooling and whether what’s coming is natural or human-made is fun but totally irrelevant from a financial perspective. The fact is that for whatever reason and in whatever direction, the climate is getting more aggressive. Monster snowstorms and apocalyptic fires are clearly becoming more common:

Combine the rising number of bad things nature is throwing our way with the fact that millions more people are choosing to live in places with the highest propensity for those bad things, and you get yet another addition to the average family’s cost of living: soaring insurance premiums.

Phil’s Stock World recently published an analysis by University of Michigan professor Andrew Hoffman that expands on the connection between nature and insurance:

Rising insurance costs may convince Americans that climate change risks are real

One of the great challenges of tackling climate change is making it real for people without a scientific background. That’s because the threat it poses can be so hard to see or feel.

In the wake of Hurricanes Florence and Michael, for example, one may be compelled to ask, “Was that climate change?” Many politicians and activists have indeed claimed that recent powerful storms are a result of climate change, yet it’s a tough sell.

What those who want to communicate climate risks need to do is rephrase the question around probabilities, not direct cause and effect. And for that, insurance is the proverbial “canary in the coal mine,” sensitive to the trends of climate change impacts and the costly risks they impose.

In other words, where scientists and educators have had limited success in convincing the public and politicians of the urgency of climate change, insurance companies may step into the breach.

Steroids and climate change
Dr. Jane Lubchenco, an environmental scientist who oversaw the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration from 2009 to 2013, offers a clever analogy to convince people of the connection between the destruction wrought by a single hurricane and climate change. It involves steroids and baseball.

Her analogy goes like this. If a baseball player takes steroids, it’s hard to connect one particular home run to his drug use. But if his total number of home runs and batting averages increase dramatically, the connection becomes apparent.

“In similar fashion, what we are seeing on Earth today is weather on steroids,” Lubchenco explains. “We are seeing more, longer lasting heat waves, more intense storms, more droughts and more floods. Those patterns are what we expect with climate change.”

And those weather patterns come with a cost.

Someone has to pay for these damages
In 2017, for example, Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria and other natural disasters like Mexican earthquakes and California wildfires caused economic losses of US$330 billion, almost double the inflation-adjusted annual average of $170 billion over the prior 10 years.

Estimated costs from Hurricane Florence, which struck the Carolinas in September, range as high as $170 billion, which would make Florence the costliest storm ever to hit the U.S.

More broadly, total economic losses from wildfires in the U.S. in 2017 – the third-hottest year on record, behind 2016 and 2015 – were four times higher than the average of the preceding 16 years and losses from other severe storms were 60 percent higher.

This led me and others to realize that we should be more focused on insurance companies, society’s first line of defense in absorbing these costs, making their industry arguably the one most directly affected by climate change.

For example, the insurance industry paid out a record $135 billion from natural catastrophes in 2017, almost three times higher than the annual average of $49 billion. That’s not to mention the uninsured losses that were also incurred – uninsured losses from 2012’s Hurricane Sandy were 50 percent of the total $65 billion in losses, a staggering tab picked up by individual citizens and the taxpayer.

Insurers will eventually adjust to this emerging reality. And with it will come changes in our economy, including higher costs that will affect everyone’s pocketbook.

A whole new ballgame
The International Association of Insurance Supervisors, a respected international standard-setting body for the insurance sector, recently published a report calling climate risk a strategic threat for the insurance sector. It cautioned against relying on annual adjustments to manage climate risks as physical risks can change suddenly and in “non-linear ways.”

Recognizing this threat, many insurers are throwing out decades of outdated weather actuarial data and hiring teams of in-house climatologists, computer scientists and statisticians to redesign their risk models.

In response, insurances premiums will increase and coverage will decrease.

The take-away? It’s going to become increasingly hard for people living in disaster-prone areas to insure their stuff. And this trend might not be gradual. Note the term “non-linear” a couple of paragraphs above. This refers to the tendency of markets in times of stress to suddenly jump to dramatically higher or lower price ranges. For homeowners insurance, that could mean Floridians or Californians paying two or three times more than just a few years earlier – at a time when property taxes are also rising due to clean-up costs of past disasters.

This is the kind of inflation that people feel keenly, and it’s the kind that ultimately leads to government bailouts in the form of taxpayer-funded subsidies or even the nationalization of industries. Which makes it just one more portent of financial instability and, ultimately, an epic currency reset.

SWAMP STORIES

This is interesting:  Manafort’s lawyer repeatedly briefed Trump on what was discussed with Mueller.  This will explain why Mueller is so angry with Manafort. Manafort is obviously hoping for a pardon once the Mueller probe is over

(courtesy zerohedge)

Manafort’s Lawyer Repeatedly Briefed Trump

Attorneys On What He Told Mueller

One day after Special Counsel Robert Mueller said that Paul Manafort had lied and violated his plea agreement with Federal prosecutors, and as a result should be sentenced immediately, the NYT has reported that in a “highly unusual” arrangement, a lawyer for Paul Manafort had repeatedly briefed president Trump’s lawyer on what he told Mueller and other federal investigators after he agreed to cooperate with the special counsel.

While the arrangement is not illegal, it reportedly inflamed tensions with the special counsel’s office when prosecutors discovered it after Mr. Manafort began “cooperating” two months ago, with some legal experts speculating that Manafort’s backdoor cooperation with Trump’s legal team was a bid by Trump’s former campaign chair for a presidential pardon even as he worked with Mueller in hopes of a lighter sentence.

Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani acknowledged the arrangement to the NYT, and “defended it as a source of valuable insights into the special counsel’s inquiry and where it was headed.”

Such information could help shape a legal defense strategy, and it also appeared to give Mr. Trump and his legal advisers ammunition in their public relations campaign against Mr. Mueller’s office.

As an example of of what Manafort told the Trump legal team, Giuliani said, Manafort’s lawyer Kevin Downing told him that prosecutors hammered away at whether the president knew about the June 2016 Trump Tower meeting where Russians promised to deliver damaging information on Hillary Clinton to his eldest son, Donald Trump Jr, although this line of investigation is hardly a surprise. Trump has long denied knowing about the meeting in advance, with Giuliani saying that Mueller “wants Manafort to incriminate Trump.”

What is notable is that this kind of joint defense agreement is legal, and while Downing’s discussions with the president’s team violated no laws, they helped contribute to a deteriorating relationship between lawyers for Manafort and Mueller’s prosecutors, who on Monday accused Manafort of holding out on them and even lying, despite his pledge to assist them in any matter they deemed relevant. As a result of the collapse of the plea deal, Manafort will now face sentencing on two conspiracy charges and eight counts of financial fraud — crimes that could put him behind bars for at least 10 years.

Just as importantly, Manafort’s frequent updates helped reassure Trump’s legal team that Manafort had not implicated the president in any possible wrongdoingwhich begs the question just how was Manafort “cooperating” with Mueller for two whole months.

Meanwhile, according to the NYT, Giuliani seized on Downing’s information to unleash lines of attack onto the special counsel.

In asserting that investigators were unnecessarily targeting Trump, Giuliani accused the prosecutor overseeing the Manafort investigation, Andrew Weissmann, of keeping Manafort in solitary confinement simply in the hopes of forcing him to give false testimony about the president.

Meanwhile, in his own repeated Twitter attacks on the special counsel, the president suggested that he himself had inside information about the prosecutors’ lines of inquiry and frustrations. “Wait until it comes out how horribly & viciously they are treating people, ruining lives for them refusing to lie,” Trump wrote on Tuesday, and earlier this month tweeted: “The inner workings of the Mueller investigation are a total mess. They have found no collusion and have gone absolutely nuts. They are screaming and shouting at people, horribly threatening them to come up with the answers they want.”

As noted above, the basis for Manafort’s legal team keeping Trump’s lawyers abreast of developments in his case is thanks to a joint defense agreement. According to the Times, Trump’s team has pursued such pacts as a way to monitor the special counsel’s inquiry.Last month, Giuliani said that the president’s lawyers had agreements with lawyers for 32 witnesses or subjects of Mueller’s 18-month-old investigation, effectively receiving up to date information on virtually every aspect of the Mueller probe.

While joint defense agreements are frequently used by lawyers involved in investigations with multiple witnesses so they can share information without running afoul of attorney-client privilege rules, usually when one defendant decides to cooperate with the government in a plea deal, that defense lawyer typically pulls out rather than antagonize the prosecutors who can influence the client’s sentence. One such example is when a lawyer for Michael T. Flynn withdrew last year from such an agreement with Trump’s lawyers before pleading  guilty to a felony offense and agreeing to help the special counsel.

On the other hand, even after Manafort pleaded guilty to two conspiracy counts in September and began answering questions in at least a dozen sessions with the special counsel, Manafort’s lawyers maintained their joint defense agreement with the president’s legal team.

Why would Manafort seek the continuation of such an agreement, even if it meant risking his plea deal? Simple: he wants Trump to pardon him.

Manafort must have wanted to keep a line open to the president in hope of a pardon, said Barbara McQuade, a formder United States attorney who now teaches law at University of Michigan. “I’m not able to think of another reason,” she said.

If Mr. Manafort wanted to stay on the prosecutors’ good side, “it would make no sense for him to continue to share information with other subjects of the investigation,” said Chuck Rosenberg, a former United States attorney and senior F.B.I. official. He added: “He is either all in or all out with respect to cooperation. Typically, there is no middle ground.”

Whether Manafort gets a pardon, remains to be seen. Last year, a former Trump lawyer allegedly broached the idea of presidential pardons to lawyers for both Manafort and Flynn as prosecutors were building cases against both men, according to people familiar with the conversations. The lawyer, John Dowd, who later resigned from the president’s team, denied ever raising the prospect of a pardon.

However, to keep Manafort’s hopes alive, after Dowd’s departure Giuliani himself suggested that Manafort and others might be eligible for pardons after Mueller’s inquiry ends, and the prospect has continued to hover over Manafort’s case. On Tuesday, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the White House press secretary, said she had no knowledge of any conversations about a pardon for Mr. Manafort. A week ago, after months of negotiations, Trump provided written answers to some questions from Mueller.

That said, even if Manafort lucks out and gets out of prison early, he will be a poor man. The reason is that prosecutors deliberately fashioned Manafort’s plea agreement to counter a possible pardon. As the NYT reports, in forcing Manafort to forfeit almost all of his wealth — including five homes, various bank accounts and an insurance policy — prosecutors specified that they could seize his assets under civil procedures “without regard to the status of his criminal conviction.

According to UCSD law professor Harry Litman, similar provisions had been used in other such cases, but other legal experts said it seemed tailor-made to ensure Manafort would lose virtually all of his wealth, no matter what Mr. Trump did.

And while Trump will likely end up pardoning Manafort before the president leaves office, whether Trump will also personally fund his former campaign chair’s retirement account is an entirely different matter.

end
This is interesting:  Trump and Mnuchin are now calling on General Motors to return back the Federal bailout money given in 2008
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump, Mnuchin Call For GM To Pay Back Federal Bailout

President Trump made his frustration with GM abundantly clear on Tuesday when he threatened to cut all EV subsidies to the Detroit carmaker. But on Wednesday both the president, this time joined by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, took the administration’s attacks on GM to their next logical endpoint: Demanding that the federal bailout recipient return the $11.2 billion loss eaten by taxpayers from the federal bailout that the company received during the depths of the financial crisis.

GM

“If GM doesn’t want to keep their jobs in the United States, they should pay back the $11.2 billion bailout that was funded by the American taxpayer,” read a tweet from a Trump fan account that the president and Mnuchin retweeted. Trump also retweeted two tweets about illegal immigration.

The Trump Train 🚂🇺🇸@The_Trump_Train

If GM doesn’t want to keep their jobs in the United States, they should pay back the $11.2 billion bailout that was funded by the American taxpayer.

end
A seething Trump fells his agencies to find ways to cut GM subsidies.  GM issues a voluntary buyout offer to over 8,000 senior employees.  If they do not get their required number, then involuntary layoffs begin
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Tells Agencies To Find Ways To Cut GM Subsidies As Buyout Offer Details Emerge

Following up on his earlier threat, Bloomberg reports that according to “a person familiar with his instructions”, President Donald Trump has asked federal agencies to look for ways to cut subsidies to General Motors following the automaker’s plans to close factories and lay off thousands of workers.

On Tuesday, Trump threatened GM that his administration is “looking at cutting all @GM subsidies,” including tax breaks for the purchase of electric cars.

And since a change in the tax break would require action by Congress, Trump has directed a broader examination of ways for the federal government to block funds to GM. Fox Business reported earlier Wednesday that the Energy Department was examining funds provided to GM. Other agencies have received similar instructions, the Bloomberg source said.

Still, in the past 12 months GM has received a relatively modest $333.5 million in federal spending according to a U.S. government website that tracks federal expenditures. More than 93% of that came through federal vehicle purchases for use by government departments.

Where taxpayer generosity features more prominently if indirectly, is that GM is also a frequent recipient of major research and defense contracts. Among the largest are a Department of Defense project that began in 2000 and earned the company $167.9 million as well as two Department of Energy grants of more than $100 million related to electric vehicles and batteries awarded during the Obama administration. Of course, U.S. taxpayers lost more than $10 billion in the rescue of the company during the financial crisis a decade ago.

GM

Putting these numbers in context, GM is on track to generate an estimated $144.2 billion in revenue this year.

Meanwhile, details emerged over the buyout offers GM had offered to its employees, and in what context. According to CNBC, executives painted a bleak outlook of the global economy in offering buyouts to 17,700 employees last month.

“We must take significant action and now while our company and the economy are strong,” they said in talking points given to managers in October to discuss the severance plan with staff. CNBC obtained the “leader talking points,” and GM verified their authenticity.

An “intensely competitive” industry combined with pressure from rising commodities prices, interest rates and a difficult trade environment created a sense of urgency. “We need … to make the right pre-emptive moves so that we come out of this tough time ahead,” they said in the talking points.

Photo: ReutersAhead of news the Detroit automaker planned to halt production in five factories and cut over 14,000 jobs in the company’s most significant restructuring since its 2009 bankruptcy, GM offered voluntary buyouts to roughly 17,700 eligible employees in North America with at least 12 years of service, according to the document. The company was aiming for 8,000 voluntary buyouts among its salaried workers as part of a total headcount reduction of 14,000, spokesman Pat Morrissey confirmed. He said about 2,250 workers accepted severance agreements by the Nov. 19 deadline.

The carmaker previously said that involuntary layoffs would follow if there were not enough takers. Roughly 5,750 salaried workers and 6,000 hourly employees will be laid off, he confirmed. Half of the hourly workers are in Canada with the other half in the U.S., where the company will work with union officials to try to move to other plants, Morrissey said.

In a concerning shift, despite reporting a very strong quarter just days earlier, executives saw stiff competition and a tough economy ahead. The cuts are designed to free up some cash and position its workforce of 180,000 for the future of autonomous vehicles and electric cars.

“We cannot afford to wait and see what happens in the industry, or with China, or in international trade or currency, to then react,” the severance document said. “Even if macro-economic factors are partially to blame, continuing to lower guidance to Wall Street is not an option.”

GM says the move would help to save $6 billion a year. Shares of the company jumped 4.8 percent on the announcement Monday, but Trump’s tweets drove the stock down Tuesday and Wednesday. Its shares have fallen by almost 20 percent during the last year.

“A strong cash position is the only way the company can deal with these factors and also continue to invest in growth opportunities and to set ourselves up for the future,” the talking points said.

Translation: more layoffs to come, and an even angrier reaction by the president.

end

Trump threatens to declassify “devastating” documents if the Democrats investigate him. That is a no brainer
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Threatens To Declassify “Devastating” Docs If Democrats Investigate Him

If only to vent his frustrations about GM, the stock market chaos, and the prospect of turning over power to the Democrats (who have gleefully bragged about the many investigations they’re planning to launch in January), President Trump has given a series of freewheeling interviews over the past two days where he has threatened a government shutdown, expressed his regret over choosing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and even opined that Janet Yellen was “too short” to be chairwoman of the Federal Reserve.

Trump

And in his latest informal chat with the New York Post from behind the Resolute Desk, the president threatened once again to retaliate against Democrats if they try to “play tough” by investigating him – this time by declassifying a wide swath of “devastating” documents related to the Mueller probe, which he had initially planned to do in September before changing his mind.

“If they want to play tough, I will do it,” Trump told the Post in an interview Wednesday. “They will see how devastating those pages are.”

According to the Post, Trump would hold on to the documents and release them when it’s time for a “counterpunch”.

“It’s much more powerful if I do it then,” Trump said, “because if we had done it already, it would already be yesterday’s news.”

Democrats have threatened to investigate his business dealing, relationship with Russia and his tax returns, among other alleged transgressions – something Trump characterized as “presidential harassment.”

“If they want to go and harass the president and the administration, I think that would (be) the best thing that could happen to me because I’m a counter puncher and I will hit them so hard, they’ve never been hit like that,” Trump said. “You know what? I think that will help my campaign. That will be the beginning of my campaign as president.”

Trump said he hesitated to release the documents because his lawyer, Emmet Flood, had advised him not to – instead recommending that he wait for a more politically advantageous opportunity.

“He didn’t want me to do it yet, because I can save it,” Trump said.

The president also pushed back on the notion that all the Justice Department documents should eventually be released for the sake of transparency.

“Some things maybe the public shouldn’t see because they are so bad,” Trump said, making clear it wasn’t damaging to him, but to others. “Maybe it’s better that the public not see what’s been going on with this country.”

Speaking during what ended up being a contentious press conference on the day after the midterms, President Trump threatened to assume a “war posture” should Democrats try to investigate him, warning “two can play at that game,” before claiming that the American public was already suffering from “investigation fatigue.”

end
Another anxiety problem for the markets:  Trump is threatening to shutdown the Federal Government unless he gets funding for the border wall.  There are 7 appropriation bills on the table and he will not sign them unless he gets his wall.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Threatens Another Shutdown If Congress Won’t Approve $5B For Border Wall

President Trump and Congressional Republicans have already abandoned two previous attempts to secure funding for the president’s promised border wall after forcing two brief partial government shutdowns. But with Democrats preparing to take control of the House in January, the president is ready to give it one last shot.

At least that’s what he told Politico during an interview published Wednesday morning. The president said he would veto any funding bill that doesn’t include $5 billion in appropriations to start building his wall on the border. To avert a shutdown, Congress must pass – and the president must sign – seven appropriations bills that have already been negotiated before midnight on Friday Dec. 7.

Trump

President Trump apparently still believes that Republicans wouldn’t suffer any political fallout from a shutdown (particularly if it’s done in the name of border security); instead, Democrats would shoulder most of the blame. And given the increasingly violent confrontations between border patrol agents and members of a caravan of migrants from Central America, Trump believes the political winds right now are particularly favorable for approving the wall.

Sitting at the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office, with a stack of papers, magazines and a soda at the ready, Trump said he now believes that a pitched battle over the border is a “total winner” politically for his party, and a loser for Democrats.

“I don’t do anything…just for political gain,” Trump said. “But I will tell you, politically speaking, that issue is a total winner. People look at the border, they look at the rush to the police, they look at the rock throwers and really hurting three people, three very brave border patrol folks – I think that it’s a tremendous issue, but much more importantly, is really needed. So we have to have border security.”

His insistence on $5 billion for the wall — “I am firm,” he said — does suggest a real risk of a partial government shutdown. Congress must pass seven appropriations bills by next Friday, or risk a lapse of funding that would interrupt operations at the Department of Homeland Security, Justice Department, State Department and other federal agencies. Democrats will take control over a slice of Washington in 37 days, the first time they’ve controlled any lever of power in Trump’s Washington.

A December shutdown would be the third under Trump, and the 20th in the past 40 years.

Chart

Trump’s insistence that he won’t accept anything less than the full $5 billion contradicts a statement he made to the Washington Post on Tuesday, when he said that he would be open to a compromise on border security with Democrats. Asked if he would be open to a compromise on DACA, Trump said he’d prefer for the courts to rule on the legality of the Obama-era policy. If they rule “properly” Trump said, the US will be able to keep the Dreamers, and he wouldn’t see any further issues. But while Democrats will almost certainly oppose Trump’s demands, the real questions is whether he’ll be able to win support from Republican “deficit hawks” like Rand Paul, who have previously balked at allocating the money for such a massive infrastructure project. For what it’s worth, Republican Whip Steve Scalise said Republicans must back Trump’s plan. “We need to be there for him,” he said.

But whether his colleagues in the leadership, who have spent months negotiating the seven funding bills, would be willing to start over remains to be seen.

If Trump doesn’t easily win support for the wall funding – a scenario that looks extremely likely – he would risk provoking another drawdown in markets, because with interest rates expected to rise in December and few expecting meaningful progress in China-US trade talks later this week, another anxiety inducing shutdown battle is the last thing the market needs.

end
Trump is very angry with General Motors. He is angrier at Europe and China for their higher tariffs on USA cars in their respective countries.  He is now hinting at more car tariffs in the uSA
(courtesy zerohedge)

GM Shares Slide As Trump Hints At Car Tariffs

As traders around the world scanned for the next morsel of news about trade talks between the US and China ahead of this weekend’s dinner meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jingping, a German newspaper sent stocks in Europe and the US spiraling lower on Tuesday when it reported that the White House could impose auto tariffs on all countries except Canada and Mexico as soon as next week, which the market swiftly interpreted as a sign that there was little justification for optimism for the G-20 meeting, and that the US would press ahead with its protectionist policies.

Though that report was swiftly denied by European officials, who said that a purported planned meeting with EU trade negotiator Cecilia Malmstrom and US Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer had never been scheduled, President Trump hinted in a tweet Wednesday morning that he was leaning toward tariffs, sending shares of European and US automakers modestly lower.

And despite the fact that GM has repeatedly warned that Trump’s trade war would force it to close factories and shed jobs, Trump claimed that the lack of auto tariffs in the US was what prompted GM’s decision – because if the US had higher trade barriers, more of the cars sold in the US would be built in the US. Trump also claimed that the reason small trucks in the US are “such a go to favorite” is because we have a 25% tariff on small trucks. In perhaps his strongest hint that the long-feared auto tariffs could be on the way, Trump said these issue are “being studied now!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The reason that the small truck business in the U.S. is such a go to favorite is that, for many years, Tariffs of 25% have been put on small trucks coming into our country. It is called the “chicken tax.” If we did that with cars coming in, many more cars would be built here…..

end
Democrats nominate Pelosi as speaker but the test lies ahead with the vote of the full House
(courtesy zerohedge)

Democrats Nominate Pelosi As Speaker, But Bigger Test Lies Ahead

As Einstein so eloquently noted:

“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”

And so it is that House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) claimed victory on Wednesday, saying she had won the Democratic nomination for Speaker amid an entrenched rebellion from insurgent lawmakers who pose the starkest threat to her long reign atop the party.

As The Hill reportsWednesday’s Speaker vote was conducted by private ballot in the Visitors Center of the Capitol. It was reflective of the unusual nature of this year’s leadership elections that there were written ballots at all.

The outcome was no surprise though, as Pelosi was running uncontested and enjoys widespread support within the liberal-heavy caucus she’s led since 2003.

Nine Democrats in the bipartisan, 48-member ‘Problem Solvers’ caucus had vowed to withhold their support for Pelosi – or any other Speaker nominee – unless the candidate commits, in writing, to the changes to rules aimed at empowering rank-and-file lawmakers and breaking partisan gridlock.

Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y) said that rebel members met with Pelosi before the vote in an effort “to engage her in a reasonable conversation about leadership transition,” but were rejected.

“Unfortunately, our concerns were dismissed outright,” she said in a statement.

The much higher bar will come in the first week of January, when the full House meets to choose the Speaker in a public vote requiring a majority of the entire voting chamber. It’s there that the insurgents feel they can block Pelosi’s ascension, even as Pelosi and her allies have projected nothing but confidence that she’ll retake the gavel she lost following the red wave elections of 2010.

SWAMP STORIES/KING REPORT 

AND SPECIAL THANKS TO CHRIS POWELL FOR SENDING THIS TO US:

Trump says he may cancel Putin meeting [Over Ukraine aggression], White House warns Xi
The White House on Tuesday warned Xi against trying to wait out Trump in the ongoing talks, suggesting the Chinese economy was not as resilient to a trade war as would be the U.S.  The warning from Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, came ahead of the two leaders’ high-stakes sit-down on Saturday evening…   https://apnews.com/d856106ffa3d41e8bc1ea2902da4051b
Kudlow: Trade Talks with China Haven’t Yielded Any Progress
Capital-Spending Slowdown Flashes a Warning for 2019 U.S. Growth
Orders at U.S. factories for non-military capital goods, excluding aircraft, were weak in October for a third straight month. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell to a six-month low in October, and regional Fed gauges cooled…
@realDonaldTrump: Very disappointed with General Motors and their CEO, Mary Barra, for closing plants in Ohio, Michigan and Maryland. Nothing being closed in Mexico & China. The U.S. saved General Motors, and this is the THANKS we get! We are now looking at cutting all @GM subsidies,including for electric cars. General Motors made a big China bet years ago when they built plants there (and in Mexico) – don’t think that bet is going to pay off. I am here to protect America’s Workers!
AFL-CIO worries GM job cuts are a ‘smokescreen for offshoring’http://dlvr.it/QsGpjN
@CBSNews: GM will save $4.5 billion by cutting 14,000 jobs and closing five factories. But according to SEC filings, the company spent more than twice that much buying back its own stock.  And it did that when the economy was weaker than it is today.https://cbsn.ws/2RkYkj
Trump slams Fed chair, questions climate change and threatens to cancel Putin meeting in wide-ranging interview with The Post
“I’m doing deals, and I’m not being accommodated by the Fed,” Trump said. “They’re making a mistake because I have a gut, and my gut tells me more sometimes than anybody else’s brain can ever tell me… So far, I’m not even a little bit happy with my selection of Jay. Not even a little bit. And I’m not blaming anybody, but I’m just telling you I think that the Fed is way off-base with what they’re doing.”…
    Trump also threatened to cancel his scheduled meeting with Russian President Vladi­mir Putin at a global summit this week because of Russia’s maritime clash with Ukraine…
 
Today – An unexpected Q3 GDP report could impact early trading.  The consensus and whisper number is 3.5%.  Traders are likely to retreat after the morning schemes because Powell speaks at noon ET.  If stocks do something unusual before Powell speaks, they we can surmise that Powell’s speech was leaked.
OAN’s @EmeraldRobinson: Mueller extends plea bargain of a SINGLE COUNT OF PERJURY to author Jerome Corsi for what Corsi says is a faulty memory, not willfully and knowingly lying.  Corsi calls Mueller’s tactics “GESTAPO” like.
    Investigative Journalist Jerome Corsi is preparing to file a CRIMINAL COMPLAINT against Mueller’s Investigation with acting Attorney General WHITAKER
 
@OANN: Manafort refused to cooperate with Mueller on questions regarding his pre-2016 work for Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska. This breakdown lead to Mueller claim that Manafort broke his agreement with Special Counsel
 
@realDonaldTrump: The Phony Witch Hunt continues, but Mueller and his gang of Angry Dems are only looking at one side, not the other. Wait until it comes out how horribly & viciously they are treating people, ruining lives for them refusing to lie. Mueller is a conflicted prosecutor gone rogue.
    The Fake News Media builds Bob Mueller up as a Saint, when in actuality he is the exact opposite. He is doing TREMENDOUS damage to our Criminal Justice System, where he is only looking at one side and not the other. Heroes will come of this, and it won’t be Mueller and his terrible Gang of Angry Democrats. Look at their past, and look where they come from. The now $30,000,000 Witch Hunt continues and they’ve got nothing but ruined lives. Where is the Server? Let these terrible people go back to the Clinton Foundation and “Justice” Department!
     The Mueller Witch Hunt is a total disgrace. They are looking at supposedly stolen Crooked Hillary Clinton Emails (even though they don’t want to look at the DNC Server), but have no interest in the Emails that Hillary DELETED & acid washed AFTER getting a Congressional Subpoena!
end
Let us close out today with this offering from Greg Hunter who interviews Bill Holter

We’ve Reached the Point of Debt Saturation – Bill Holter

By Greg Hunter On November 28, 2018 In Market Analysis

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter has been asking the same question many others have been asking. How long can the heavily indebted and manipulated global economy go before it blows or can it go on indefinitely? Holter says, “It can’t keep going because it’s already stopped. The inflection point has already been hit. If you look at credit growth, it’s not credit growth. It’s either credit stagnation or credit contraction. The global financial system is a Ponzi scheme. In order to continue to reflate it, you have to have . . . exponentially more debt. That’s where we’ve been, and now we are at the point of debt saturation. There is really no ability to add more debt. Look at the U.S. for example. The U.S. pays $300 billion to $400 billion a year going all the way back to the 1990’s. That number never went higher, even though the amount of debt doubled and then doubled again. The reason it didn’t go higher is they pushed interest rates from 7% down to basically zero percent. So, the debt service amount never grew, and now it’s growing, and it’s growing at a time when the U.S. has basically already crossed the banana republic threshold of 100% debt to GDP. In the past 12 months, we spent $550 billion in interest, and it’s on its way to the moon.”

So, what are people going to do in a world of “exponential debt”? Holter says, “Gold and silver have no liability. They have no liability whatsoever. They are pure monetary assets. There is no currency anywhere in the world that is backed directly by anything except the full faith and credit of the central banks. That’s the key. The world is awash in credit and awash in liabilities, and as this thing bursts, and it’s bursting right now right before your very eyes, and you are seeing it in the stock markets and bigger in the credit markets, when this thing bursts, people are going to scramble to get out from under liability. There’s only one way to do that . . . when credit begins to evaporate, then the cover over gold and silver is going to be lifted.”

There is going to be a reset of this unpayable debt, and Holter says, “It’s going to happen, and I hope for not a very long period of time. I am hoping it’s just a two week or four week event where the system goes down and goes back up. If I am wrong, then you are looking at a Mad Max world. . . . Basically, nothing works. Your electricity doesn’t work. Your car may or may not work. We may have an EMP or it will work until you run out of gas. When credit breaks down, then distribution breaks down. If credit doesn’t come back up, then distribution is gone. That means every Walmart, every grocery store is empty. Basically, you are on your own.”

In closing, Holter warns, “The balloon has already been popped. The pin has popped the bubble, and now we are just going to work its way out. The workout, by the way, is going to be a complete and utter financial collapse. It is a house of cards, and it is all going to end up flat.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Bill Holter of JSMineset.com.

Video Link

https://usawatchdog.com/weve-reached-the-point-of-debt- saturation-bill-holter/#more-21197

-END-

I WILL YOU ON THURSDAY
H
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