NOV 29/TOMORROW IS OPTIONS EXPIRY LONDON AND OTC GOLD AND SILVER AND ALSO FIRST DAY NOTICE/GOLD UP $1.30 TO $1224.70/SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TO $14.33/HUGE DROP IN OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD AND SILVER (TOTAL COMPLEX) BUT NOT THE FRONT DECEMBER CONTRACT MONTHS/JEFFRY SNIDER OF ALHAMBRA PARTNERS: A MUST READ TONIGHT ON CHINA’S HUGE MONEY PROBLEMS/3 MONTH LIBOR RISES 3 FULL POINTS SETTING OFF FINANCING COSTS AS WELL AS DOLLAR FUNDING: THIS IS CHINA’S BIG PROBLEM /TWO GOOD COMMENTARIES TONIGHT FROM BRANDON SMITH AND GRAHAM SUMMERS/PLETHORA OF SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1224.70 UP  $1.30 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.33 DOWN 2 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1224.25

 

silver: $14.31

 

 

Today the CME reports a massive amount of liquidation in the both gold and silver as per total open interest, but not in the front month of December.  Unless something drastic happens with tomorrow’s reading, we should have a huge amount of gold and silver standing.

I receive the initial amount of gold and silver standing at around 10: 00 pm tonight and I will put the numbers in this spot to give you the idea of what has been served upon in first day notice.

 

11 PM TONIGHT: NOV 29.2018

 

HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD NOTICES FILED:  2083 NOTICES FOR 208300 OZ OR 6.479 TONNES ALREADY SERVED UPON FOR GOLD. IT WILL BE INTERESTING AS THEY ONLY HAVE 4 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD.

 

HUGE NUMBER OF SILVER NOTICES FILED:  1463 NOTICES FOR 7.315,000 OZ

WE NOW AWAIT TO SEE HOW MANY LONGS ARE STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN BOTH GOLD/SILVER

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

NOV

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV CONTRACT: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 300 OZ

Total number of notices filed so far for NOV:  219  for 21900 OZ  (0.6811 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR NOVEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,000  OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 1488 for 7,440,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $4407: up 125

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $4327  down $46 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 9525 CONTRACTS FROM 199,783 DOWN TO  190,258  DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 23 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR NOV.  1323 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND 0 FOR MARCH AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1323 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1323 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1323 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 6.615 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 23 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND  39.505 MILLION  OZ STANDING  IN SEPT.  2,520,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER. AND NOW SO FAR A HUGE 7,440,000 OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV: 47,758 CONTRACTS (FOR 20 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 47,758 CONTRACTS) OR 238.79 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2388 CONTRACTS OR 11.94 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF NOV:  238.79 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 34.11% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,650.42    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 9525 DESPITE THE  23 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY AS THE BOYS CONTINUE WITH THEIR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OVER TO  ETFS AT THE START OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1323 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE LOST A HUGE SIZED: 8208 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 1323 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 9525 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS   DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 23 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.35 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH  IN SEPTEMBER A FINAL MONSTROUS 39.05 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY, WITH HUGE DELIVERIES OF OVER 2 MILLION OZ IN OCTOBER (A NON DELIVERY MONTH) AND NOW  7.440 MILLION OZ IN NOVEMBER….... NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .9525 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 136% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 5,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz AND NOW NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY AN ATMOSPHERIC  SIZED 23,939 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 418,862 DESPITE THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A RISE IN PRICE OF $9.45//.YESTERDAY’S TRADING) AS THESE GUYS JOINED SILVER IN THE ROUTINE MIGRATION OVER TO ETF’S AS WE APPROACH AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED AN ATMOSPHERIC  SIZED 14,521 CONTRACTS:

 

 

NOVEMBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 14,521 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 418,862. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9418 CONTRACTS:  23,939 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 14,521 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS: 9418 CONTRACTS OR 941,800 OZ = 29.29 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS LACK OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $9.45???

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 18,710 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 163.814 CONTRACTS OR 16,381,400 OZ OR 509.53 TONNES (20 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8190 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 20 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 509.53 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 509.53/2550 x 100% TONNES =  19.98% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,716.76  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR NOV 2018:

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 23,939 DESPITE THE  GAIN IN PRICING ($9.45) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 14,521 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 14,521 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF 9418 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

14,521 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 23,939 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the LOSS in total oi equates to 29.29 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS LACK OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN OF $9.45 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX

 

 

we had: 1 notice(s) filed upon for 100 oz of gold at the comex.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $1.30 TODAY: / 

 

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   761.74 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 761.74 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY

 

 

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A GIGANTIC 9525 CONTRACTS from 199,783 DOWN TO 190,258  AND MOVING A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

i) 0 EFP’s for November… and

 

1323 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1323 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 9525 CONTRACTS TO THE 1323 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A HUGE  NET LOSS  OF 7896 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE  LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 41.04 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., AND NOW 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING IN NOVEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A HUGE DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 23 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 1323 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 34.29 POINTS OR 1.32% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 231.53 POINTS OR 0.87% //The Nikkei closed UP 85.38 OR 0.39%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .64%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9439 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil DOWN to 50.93 dollars per barrel for WTI and 57.87 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.9439AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9375: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)Your most important commentary of the day: Snider comments correctly that dollars outside the USA system (eurodollars) has collapsed in numbers probably due to the USA higher interest rate policy and its huge deficits are sucking in dollars from around the world.  That has created problems for our emerging markets and also most importantly China which has needed foreign investments to grease their economy.  Now that dollars are leaving, the CNY is falling in value and we now have a risk of citizens moving their dollars (which are hidden) out to Switzerland or other safe havens. This is setting up a huge deflationary problem for the world as the yuan will spike greater than 7.5 or 8.0 to one USA dollars and with that, China will flood with world with cheap goods and this will idle European and other shops as they simple could not compete.

a must read..

(courtesy Snider/Alhambra Partners)

ii)After Trump initially states that things are going in the right direction with China, the markets fall back when Navarro is back on the dinner list.
(courtesy zerohedge)
iii)China has a section of the large shadow banking sector called P to P or Peer to Peer.  Here we have individuals loaning to corporations money and receiving a good interest rate. The total shadow banking sector  is 9 trillion dollars.  The P to P is 176 billion . The government wants to purge this sector which will no doubt create more social unrest.
( zerohedge)

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Germany

Our good friends over at Deutsche bank, the world’s largest derivative player are not happy campers today. They have been raided by German police at their Frankfurt headquarters.

( zerohedge)

ii)Germany now doubles the payout to migrants if they agree to leave the country

( zerohedge)

iii)EU

Macron is one big screwball.  He initiated a diesel tax to which the populace revolted.  Total SA, Europe’s largest refiner of diesel has shut down and that has caused the price of diesel to skyrocket. Riots are everywhere as France burns.  Now Europe gas stations are reporting that they have run out of diesel supplies.
( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

iv)Bill Blain explains the strange Pimco deal where it buys the entire 3 billion euros of debt offered by Italy’s largest banks  Unicredit. In a nutshell  Pimco is betting that Brussels must support Italy despite the country’s anger at now allowing a budgetary deficit of 2.4%.  Pimco is stating that the ECB must buy Italian bonds ad infinitum

( Bill Blain)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7. OIL ISSUES

i)Oil spikes a little after a report that Russia accepts the need for oil cuts

( zerohedge)

ii)Natural Gas prices fall to an average price of 25 MTMu and in some place, natural gas is just given away for free and some at a negative price ie. the user receives money for taking the product off the producer’s hands

( Nick Cunningham/Oil price.com

iii)Gas prices slide to its lowest level on huge shale production

( zerohedge)

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Chris Powell correctly comments on the fact that the authorities and JPMorgan refuse to answer questions on the gold rigging issue
(courtesy Chris Powell)
ii)Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
( zerohedge/Chris Powell)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

The boys juice the markets on a report that both China and the uSA are exploring ways to make a deal to ease tensions

( Wall Street Journal/zerohedge)

ii)Market data/

a)Good data today for the USA. Both Income and spending data surges in October but also inflation

( zerohedge)

b)Seems that the jobless numbers turned on a dime:  they soared to 8 month highs..as something is seriously wrong in the USA economy.

(zerohedge)

c)Housing is a major component of GDP.  Today the second leg on the housing report shows pending home sales plunging.

( zerohedge)

d)The libor 3 month rate has been rising steadily for months.  Today is surged a monstrous 3 full points to 2.738.  As we have pointed out to you on several occasions this kills the dollar funding operations in the emerging markets and in China.  The big question now is: who will be buying the huge 1.8 trillion USA debt.

(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)The pitiful shake of the USA social security.  They state that they will run out of money by 2034.  It will be probably much earlier

( SovereignMan.com)

b)Brandon Smith is one smart cookie:  He basically is stating that the Trump/Fed will orchestrate a market crash and that will help our banking elites to pick up assets at pennies on the dollar

( Brandon Smith/Alt-Market.com)
c)Nick Colas believes that the Powell speech was orchestrated to deflect on the upcoming trade defeat at the hands of the Chinese.  May be true..
However it is far more important to concentrate on the Brandon Smith article.
(courtesy zerohedge/Nick Colas)

d)A terrific and short commentary from Graham Summers as he correctly laid out what happened yesterday and it is very bad.  The market reacted by going up 600 points but the USA dollar hardly moved and the 10 yr bond also hardly budged.  The dollar should have been hit by 1.5% and the 10 yr bond rate should have plummeted.  It did not as the global picture is in trouble financially.

(courtesy Graham Summers)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)This will not be good for Michael Avenatti as we went rogue and sued Trump against her wishes

( zero hedge)

b)Trump blasts Mueller as his “investigation” is in search of a crime!

( zerohedge)

c)Trump:  Cohen is lying about the Moscow project so as to reduce his sentence

( zerohedge)

d)Trump does not fall for Mueller’s perjury trap as he outlines his involvement in the aborted Trump Moscow project.  Mueller did not ask Trump for a time line and thus no perjury

( zerohedge)
E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 23,939 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level 418,862 DESPITE THE  GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($9.45 IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 14,521 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

NOV: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  14,521 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  14,521 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  9418 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 14,521 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A GIGANTIC SIZED 23,939 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 9418 contracts OR 941,800 OZ OR 29.29 TONNES.

 

We are now in the non active contract month of November. For the November contract month, we have 1 notice standing so we LOST 2 contract. We had 3 notices served YESTERDAY so we gained 1 contract or an additional 100 oz of gold will stand for gold at the comex and these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well negate to accept  a fiat bonus for the trouble.

 

 

 

 

 

The next delivery month after November is the very big December contract month and here the OI FELL by 56,315 contracts  to 43,392 contracts.  January saw a RISE TO 4720 FOR A GAIN OF 479 CONTRACTS.  February gained 28,933 contracts to stand at 283,889 contracts.

FOR COMPARISON TO THE 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

ON NOV 28/2017 WE HAD 32,938 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS (WITH 1 DAY LEFT BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE) COMPARED TO THIS YEAR:  43,392.( COMPARED TO 1  READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE)

IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A DANDY AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN DECEMBER.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1/2017: 37.035 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

EVENTUALLY BY DEC 31.2017:  28.592 TONNES STOOD AND THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

AS A REMINDER WE HAVE ONLY 4.000 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD READY TO SERVE UPON OUR DEC LONGS.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 1 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 100 OZ.

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY 9525 CONTRACTS FROM 199,783 DOWN TO 190,258 (AND FURTHER FROM NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S GIGANTIC  OI COMEX LOSS  OCCURRED WITH A 23 CENT GAIN IN PRICING???.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 1323 EFP CONTRACTS:  FOR NOVEMBER:  0 CONTRACTS AND FOR …

 

FOR DECEMBER: 1323 CONTRACTS, FOR MARCH 0 CONTRACTS, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1323.  ON A NET BASIS WE LOST 7896 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  9525 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1323 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   8208 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 23  CENT GAIN IN PRICING// YESTERDAY??

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of NOVEMBER and here we now have 1 notices  standing for a GAIN of 1 contact.  We had 0 notices served upon yesterday so we gained 1 contract or an additional 5,000 oz will  stand for delivery as these longs refused to  morph into London based forwards as well as not accepting a fiat bonus for their efforts.

 

 

 

 

After November, we have a December contract and here we LOST 18,497 contracts DOWN to 17,745.  January saw a GAIN of 97 contracts up to 1937 contracts.   March, the next big delivery month after December saw a gain of 8478 contracts  up to 141,431

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

ON NOV 27. 2017 WE HAD STILL  14,121 (1 day before first day notice) OPEN  INTEREST CONTRACTS LEFT TO BE SERVED UPON AND THIS COMPARES TO TODAY: 17,745 CONTRACTS (1 days before first day notice)

IT ALSO LIKES LIKE WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A DANDY AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1.2017 WE HAD A RATHER LARGE: 19.47 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY

BY THE END OF DECEMBER:  33.295 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NAME OF THE GAME IN SILVER.

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 1 notice(s) filed for 5,000 OZ for the NOV, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 281,139 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  476,172  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  NOV/GOLD

NOV 29-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

5907.14

 

 

oz

 

 

Delaware

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
1 notice(s)
 100 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
(NIL oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
219 notices
21900 OZ
0.6811 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

total gold entering dealer:  0 oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer;  0 oz

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 1 customer deposits
i) into Delaware: 5907.14 oz
total customer deposits 5907.14 oz
we had 3  adjustments..
i) Out of Brinks:  868.077 oz was removed out of the customer account and adjusted back to the dealer account
ii) Out of HSBC 600.628 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account and this landed into the customer account of HSBC
iii) Out of Scotia? 99.992 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account and this landed into the customer account of Scotia

FOR THE NOV 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (219) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (1 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz per contract) equals 21,900 OZ OR 0.6811 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of NOV

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (219 x 100 oz)  + {1)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz )which equals 21900 oz standing OR 0.6811 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOVEMBER.

WE GAINED 1 CONTRACT OR AN ADDITIONAL 100 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE LONGS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL NEGATING TO  ACCEPT A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.000 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 0.6811 TONNES STANDING FOR NOVEMBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  128,619.348 oz or   4.000 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,021,309.772 oz 249.512 tonnes
 I BELIEVE THAT THIS IS THE LOWEST REGISTERED GOLD READING IN THE COMEX HISTORY..AS WELL AS THE LONGEST WE HAVE SEEN THE REGISTERED COLUMN AT 5 TONNES OR LESS. WE HAVE NOW BROKEN THE 4 TONNES BARRIER TO READ; 3.995 TONNES OF DEALER (REGISTERED) GOLD.

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THERE IS NO GOLD AT THE COMEX..AS THE CROOKS SEEMS TO BE FORCING LONGS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF LONDON FORWARDS AND NOT TAKE POSSESSION OF ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX/

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

NOV INITIAL standings/SILVER

NOV 29, 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
853,780.732 oz
CNT
Int. Delaware
.

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
504,144.890 oz
Brinks
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
600,681.820oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
1
CONTRACT(S)
5,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
(nil oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 1488 contracts

(7,440,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

 

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into Brinks:  504,144.890 oz

total dealer deposits: 504,144.890 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 151.7 million oz of  total silver inventory or 52.09% of all official comex silver. (152.0 million/292 million)

ii)Into CNT:  600,681.820 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 600,681.820  oz

we had 2 withdrawal out of the customer account:
i) Out of CNT: 823,170.159oz
ii) Out of Int Delaware:  29,611.573 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 853,780.734 oz

 

we had 3 adjustments

i) Out of Brinks:  43,982.850 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of Brinks

ii) Out of HSBC: 2515,851.100 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of HSBC

iii) Out of Scotia: 997,209.080 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account and this landed into the customer account of Scotia

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  83.728 million

total dealer + customer silver:  294.946  million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2018. contract month is represented by 1 contract(s) FOR 5,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1488 x 5,000 oz = 7,440,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (1) and the number of notices served upon today (1 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOV/2018 contract month: 1488(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV( 1) -number of notices served upon today (1)x 5000 oz equals 7,440,000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month.  This is a gigantic number of oz standing for an off delivery month. We GAINED 1 contract or an additional 5,000 OZ will  stand at the comex as these longs refused to accept a London based forwards as well as negating the right to receive a fiat bonus. As we explained above somebody was in urgent need of physical silver today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 97,726 CONTRACTS  … 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 149,200 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 149,200 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 746 million OZ  106.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -4.10-% (NOV 29/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.35% to NAV (NOV 29/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.10%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.30/TRADING 11.79/DISCOUNT 4.07

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.30: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 26/WITH GOLD DOWN 65 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

 

NOV 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.95: A BIG CHANGE: A GOOD SIZED DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 16/WITH GOLD UP $8.00: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.48 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 15/WITH GOLD UP $5.35/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $8.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.77 TONNES AT THE GLD/THAT SHOULD END THE WHACKING OF GOLD FOR NOW AND A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 84 TONNES: INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NOV 29.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 761.74 tonnes

*IN LAST 505 TRADING DAYS: 173.41 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 405 TRADING DAYS: A NET 13.41 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ.

NOV 28/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 188,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ/

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.301 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.718 MILLION OZ/

NOV 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ

NOV 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ.

NOV 21/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 563,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 16/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS; A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 328,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/ A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.784 MILLION OZ

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ/

 

 

NOV 28/2018:

 

Inventory 322.906 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.44/ and libor 6 month duration 2.89

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .45

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.72%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.14

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.42

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

BREXIT May Lead to UK Property Crash and Depression

– Brexit no-deal would lead to “worst crash since 1930s”
– Gold rose 0.6% in dollars and 1.2% in pounds today
– UK economy could contract by 8%, house prices fall 30%, sterling fall 25% warns Bank of England
– Sterling collapse would push Irish economy into recession
– Carney’s doomsday scenario sees the crippling of UK finances, the pound crashing and inflation soaring
– BOE accused of “Project Fear” and attempt to scare UK parliament to vote against Brexit deal


Market Performance – 1 Day (Finviz)

via Times UK:

Britain would be plunged into its deepest recession since the 1930s under a disorderly no-deal Brexit, the Bank of England warned yesterday.

House prices could fall by 30 per cent, interest rates rise to 5.5 per cent and the economy shrink by 8 per cent — a greater contraction than after the 2008 financial crisis — its worst-case scenario showed.

Ben Broadbent, one of the Bank’s deputy governors, said that this would be worse than any crisis since “we went back on gold” and the economy subsequently crashed in 1930. In the 2008 financial crisis the British economy shrank by 6.3 per cent.

The Bank gave its assessment hours after a Whitehall analysis suggested that the economy would shrink under all versions of Brexit.

Full article on Times UK here

 

Editors Note: While the BOE’s latest warnings are alarmist, we concur with Mark Carney’s advice to “hope for the best but to prepare for the worst” by re-balancing investment and pension portfolios and owning physical gold.

 

 

News and Commentary

Gold gains as US dollar weakens after cautious Fed speech (MoneyControl.com)

Gold Rises on Slipping Dollar On Dovish Fed (Investing.com)

Did Fed’s Powell ‘light the fuse’ for a year-end rally? (MarketWatch.com)

Fed’s Powell, in apparent dovish shift, says rates near neutral (Reuters.com)

Fed warns ‘particularly large’ plunge in asset prices is possible if risks materialize (CNBC.com)


Source: SRSRocco

Brexit: Dire warnings about the cost of a no-deal are mounting (BloombergQuint.com)

Macro Deceleration Getting Confirmed By How 10-Year T-Yield Behaves (Hedgopia.com)

Invest Demand: Still Largest Growth Sector In Silver Market (SRSRoccoReport.com)

Peak Misery: “Everything is Failing” (SevenFigurePublishing.com)

Deutsche Bank Shares Slide As Police Raid Frankfurt Headquarters (ZeroHedge.com)

 

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

28 Nov: USD 1,213.20, GBP 949.69 & EUR 1,074.77 per ounce
27 Nov: USD 1,225.05, GBP 959.70 & EUR 1,082.21 per ounce
26 Nov: USD 1,226.65, GBP 954.58 & EUR 1,079.33 per ounce
23 Nov: USD 1,222.15, GBP 951.69 & EUR 1,075.13 per ounce
22 Nov: USD 1,228.25, GBP 950.42 & EUR 1,074.72 per ounce
21 Nov: USD 1,224.00, GBP 957.29 & EUR 1,075.04 per ounce
20 Nov: USD 1,223.10, GBP 951.45 & EUR 1,069.97 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

28 Nov: USD 14.15, GBP 11.06 & EUR 12.54 per ounce
27 Nov: USD 14.28, GBP 11.20 & EUR 12.61 per ounce
26 Nov: USD 14.38, GBP 11.18 & EUR 12.65 per ounce
23 Nov: USD 14.26, GBP 11.12 & EUR 12.56 per ounce
22 Nov: USD 14.52, GBP 11.26 & EUR 12.72 per ounce
21 Nov: USD 14.42, GBP 11.26 & EUR 12.65 per ounce
20 Nov: USD 14.44, GBP 11.24 & EUR 12.63 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– General Motors And General Electric Highlight The Ponzi Scheme That Is The US Economy
– A Worldwide Debt Default Is A Real Possibility
– Risk of Lower Lows in Gold Remains Prior to Spectacular Rally to Follow
– Gold and Silver Hold Firm as Stocks and Oil Lower in to US Holiday Weekend
– Is Brexit a Massive Threat to Globalisation?
– Stock Markets Remains Extremely Overvalued – Hussman
– Stocks are Now in ‘Complete Bitcoin Territory,’ Asset Manager Says
– Brexit’s Safe Haven Is a Dangerous Place
– Gold and Silver Rise As Stocks Fall On Valuation Concerns, Italy and Brexit Risks
– Pound Falls 2.5% Against Gold as UK Government in Turmoil Over Brexit
– GoldCore Capitalising On Brexit With Dublin Gold Vault

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
 
 
ii) GATA stories
Chris Powell correctly comments on the fact that the authorities and JPMorgan refuse to answer questions on the gold rigging issue
(courtesy Chris Powell)

Refusals to answer should be enough to settle the gold-rigging issue

 Section: 

10:55p ET Wednesday, November 29, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Questions are asked to get answers, but refusals to answer may be enough to permit conclusions to be drawn and thus in effect constitute answers as well.

With all these recent refusals to answer, who really cannot believe that governments and central banks long have been manipulating the gold market so they might control the currency markets and thereby defeat all markets?

Consider the following.

* * *

By letter on July 27 this year U.S. Rep. Alex X. Mooney, R-West Virginia, put many critical questions to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell:

http://gata.org/node/18407

Among the questions:

— Given the recent tight correlation between the gold price and the value of the Chinese yuan, has China been rigging a market purportedly protected by antitrust law in the United States?

… 

 

 What is U.S. government policy toward gold? Does it remain, as U.S. government archives show it to have been at least since the 1970s, to drive gold out of the world financial system?

— Is the U.S. government trading in gold or gold derivatives through the Treasury Department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund, other government agencies, or other intermediaries?

— How does the Federal Reserve reconcile the written statement of Fed Governor Kevin M. Warsh in 2009 that the Fed has secret gold swap arrangements with foreign banks with the assertion by Fed Chairman Powell in July this year that the Fed has had no involvement with gold swaps?

— Has any audit sought to identify any encumbrances on monetary metals owned by the U.S. government?

Four months have passed and Mooney’s letter has gone unanswered and even unacknowledged by the Fed and Treasury.

* * *

By letter in July GATA asked the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to examine the recent correlation of the gold price and the valuation of the Chinese yuan:

http://gata.org/node/18405

We asked the commission:

— How does the CFTC allow a foreign government or entity to control the price of this important commodity and currency by trading in U.S. markets?

— Is market manipulation by a foreign power happening with the authorization of the U.S. government?

Four months have passed and the commission has not answered or even acknowledged the letter.

* * *

By letter in September GATA asked the CFTC if the commission has jurisdiction over market rigging by the U.S. government itself or whether such market rigging is authorized by federal law, such as the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, which established the Exchange Stabilization Fund:

http://www.gata.org/node/18512

Two months have passed without an acknowledgment from the commission.

* * *

On July 2 your secretary/treasurer e-mailed the public relations department at JPMorganChase & Co. about the bank’s involvement in the monetary metals markets, which occasionally has been controversial. The message read:

“In April 2012 Blythe Masters, then chief of the bank’s commodities desk, told CNBC that the bank had no position of its own in the monetary metals markets and was trading only for clients:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gc9Me4qFZYo

“Can you tell me if this remains the case and if the bank’s clients in trading the monetary metals markets include governments and central banks?”

Five months have passed without an acknowledgment from JPMorganChase.

* * *

A year ago GATA e-mailed the press office of the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, the gold broker for most central banks, asking for an explanation of what the bank does in the gold market, for whom the bank does it, and for what purposes:

http://gata.org/node/17793

The bank promptly replied but did not answer the question. The bank wrote: “We do not comment on specific accounts / holdings of central banks or of the BIS. Please see our latest annual report for details on gold. Further information can be gleaned from central banks directly.”

But GATA did not ask the BIS to “comment on specific accounts / holdings of central banks or the BIS itself.” We asked the BIS for an explanation of what the bank does in the gold market generally and why. Further, there is precious little information about gold in the BIS’ annual report and most of the bank’s members conceal their trading of gold and gold derivatives.

Indeed, a secret March 1999 report by the staff of the International Monetary Fund, obtained by GATA, says central banks conceal their gold loans and swaps precisely to facilitate their surreptitious interventions in the gold and currency markets:

http://www.gata.org/node/12016

* * *

Eight days ago the London Bullion Market Association issued a report purporting to disclose the weekly volume of gold trading by its members. Bloomberg News headlined its story about the report this way: “London Gold Market Comes Clean”:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-20/london-gold-market-co…

But Bullion Star’s gold market analyst Ronan Manly, whose research through the years has exposed much about the LBMA, didn’t believe that the association had “come clean” about anything. Manly found the LBMA’s data report suspicious in part because it seemed to omit trading by central banks through LBMA members:

http://www.gata.org/node/18630

So your secretary/treasurer e-mailed the LBMA press office and LBMA Chief Executive Ruth Crowell, calling Manly’s analysis to their attention and putting a question to them: “In the interest of the transparency the LBMA says it is pursuing, please tell me whether central bank trading data has been removed or omitted from the information you have just reported.”

The LBMA has not responded.

* * *

Quite without any help from governments and central banks, GATA has extensively documented what is actually their longstanding policy to suppress and control the gold price to defend their control of the world and prevent free and transparent markets from developing. Various admissions and confirmations are summarized here —

http://www.gata.org/node/14839

— and more can be found here:

http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/21

GATA invites skeptics to dispute these admissions and confirmations specifically, rather than to dismiss them generally. GATA invites skeptics to try putting their own questions along these lines to governments, central banks, and their agents like the LBMA and to report any answers and refusals to answer.

Of course mainstream financial news organizations could settle this issue quickly and easily by examining the documentation, pressing a few questions of their own, and reporting what they found. Indeed, the refusal of those news organizations to attempt critical journalism in regard to central banking is central banking’s greatest power, power greater even than their power to create and allocate infinite money in secret. For central banking operates so much in secret precisely because its policies work mainly by deception, and exposure would defeat them.

GATA long has been delivering its documentation to many financial news organizations around the world, with little result. But our friends can help by sharing our work, particularly with financial journalists who report about manipulated markets without addressing manipulation, and by sharing our work with elected officials and asking them to investigate as Representative Mooney is doing.

GATA aims to keep at it but fighting all the money and power in the world on behalf of free and transparent markets, limited and accountable government, and equality among the nations is no picnic. Don’t think you can’t do anything here. You can, and GATA needs the help.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end




iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

__

Berlin has no plan on how to get €50bn in German gold back from US

Published time: 29 Nov, 2018

Berlin has no plan on how to get €50bn in German gold back from US

© Global Look Press / Christian Ohde

For decades, the Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank and custodian of the country’s gold, has been storing over 1,200 tons of the precious metal worth nearly €50 billion in the New York vaults of the US Federal Reserve.

After a public outcry in Germany in 2013, authorities started the repatriation program, aimed at returning the country’s gold reserves, which have been stored outside of the country since the Cold War. Berlin intended to get at least half of the country’s gold from the US and France by 2020. The government had initially planned to complete the program within a five-year period, but the US Federal Reserve renegotiated the process to a seven-year timeline.

The country reportedly managed to ship only five tons of its gold in 2013 due to logistical difficulties. The following year, Germany repatriated 120 tons of the precious metal – 35 tons from Paris and 85 tons from New York. Some 110.5 tons were brought back from Paris and 99.5 tons from New York in 2015. Two years ago, the country repatriated total of 200 tons.

So far, the Fed has denied the German financial regulator access to the vast deposits that are literally being held hostage overseas. Thus, the Bundesbank has had no opportunity to audit the reserves that belong to Germany.

Various theories circulated about Germany’s foreign gold reserves, with some experts questioning whether it is still there or if it has been used by foreign central banks. However, the German government doesn’t seem very worried about the issue.

“I haven’t heard that it is now becoming a hot topic, but in case it is, you should contact the Bundesbank. They would give you information about the current state of affairs and plans on this issue,” German Finance Ministry spokesman Dennis Kolberg told RT Deutsch during the weekly news conference.

“The Bundesbank has already spoken on this issue, so I can only refer to them,” the official said, when asked if the government has any plans to address the matter of the country’s gold being kept abroad.https://www.rt.com/business/445133-germany-access- gold-us-fed/

Video Link

https://www.rt.com/business/445133-germany-access-gold- us-fed

end

________________________________________

 

 

 

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.9439/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER NOW ON //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9375   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 34.29 POINTS OR 1.32%

. HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 231.53 POINTS OR 0.87%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 85.38 POINTS OR 0.39%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.82/Euro RISES TO 1.1374

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALL TO. +.08/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 113.28/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 50.93 and Brent: 47.87

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UPCHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.33%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 3.23% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.51%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.90: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.27

3k Gold at $1226.10 silver at:14.32   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 13/100 in roubles/dollar) 67.26

3m oil into the 50 dollar handle for WTI and 57 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.28DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9937 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1314 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.33%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.02% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.31%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.14

 

S&P Futures Slide, 10Y Yield Hits 3%, Oil Tumbles

Under $50

After yesterday’s furious Powell-inspired rally, the overnight kneejerk reaction has been muted, with US equity futures giving up some of yesterday’s gains while Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index faded earlier gains following a mostly upbeat Asia session.

After 10Y Treasuries surprisingly barely moved following yesterday’s Powell speech, the benchmark yield finally saw a more pronounced move on Thursday morning, extending its decline after the Fed Chairman fueled speculation the central bank may pause interest rate increases next year…

… while the greenback drifted in a tight range following Wednesday’s drop, it rebounded from session lows and was roughly unchanged.

In the wake of Powell’s “dovish” comments that Fed Funds are  “just below” estimates of the neutral rate (vs. “a long way” in October), hinting at a potential slowdown in the hiking cycle, the DXY gave up the 97.000 level and witnessed its steepest one-day percentage decline this month so far, to 96.622 at one stage. However, the USD has pared some losses with month-end and SOMA demand still in play, while some rival currencies also suffer further weakness. Looking ahead, FOMC Minutes are due to be published later todayalthough with the market now pricing in just one rate hike in 2019 (from more than less than two months ago), it is unlikely that any further dovish news is possible.

At the same time, European bonds rose, and even though demand for five-year Italian debt at an auction fell to the lowest since June. Italy’s five-year bond yield dipped 4 bps to 2.36 percent and the closely-watched spread over Germany was at 294 bps. Italian debt has rallied this week as the government said it was ready to compromise with the European Union on its budget deficit target. German bonds extended gains after inflation data from the German state of Saxony and Treasury.

European shares gave up early gains of as much as 0.7%, with the Stoxx 600 Europe Index trading up just 0.2% as of 1:02pm CET, dragged lower by the real estate shares which remains the worst performer sector in the index, while tech shares trim gains of as much as 2%. Deutsche Bank dropped more than 3% after prosecutors said its headquarters were being searched in a money laundering probe.

Material names are also seeing support this morning, in-fitting with price action in the metals scope with gains seen in Antofagasta (+4.9%), Glencore (+1.8%), Rio Tinto (+1.1%); upside in mining names and a softer GBP has pushed the FTSE 100 (+0.8%) towards the top of the leaderboard.

Earlier in the session Asian stocks were broadly higher, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.6 percent, although the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1 percent. Gains were tempered by investor jitters before trade talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday, during the G20 summit in Argentina.

The euro erased an earlier advance after a raft of weak economic data, while emerging-market equities rose to the highest level since early October and developing-nation currencies strengthened. The dollar held steady even as the U.S. 10-year note yield fell below 3% for the first time in two months. The euro failed to sustain early gains amid mixed regional German inflation prints, while the pound led losses in G-10 as PM Theresa May said the U.K. should be ready for no deal if Dec. 11 Parliament vote rejects her Brexit plan. Fed’s hike path stays in focus with several speeches by policy makers and minutes from latest meeting due Thursday.

With Powell now out of the way, the market is looking for any signals on trade from a meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents that will take place at the Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires this weekend.

“The next catalyst will be the G-20 meeting between Trump and Xi; we believe risk assets will tactically trade in the green following a tariff cease-fire,” said Eleanor Creagh, a strategist at Saxo Capital Markets in Sydney. “A tradable risk bounce on a paper deal at G-20 will be unlikely to reverse sentiment structurally as the underlying U.S.-China relationship is still deteriorating.”

Elsewhere, West Texas oil tumbled below $50 a barrel for the first time in more than a year as Russia signaled little urgency to commit to supply cuts and traders fretted that OPEC won’t act decisively to clear a resurgent surplus in the global crude market while U.S. crude stockpiles continue to grow.

Oil futures tumbled as much as 1.8% in New York to $49.41 a barrel, the lowest since early October 2017. Brent for January settlement, which expires Friday, fell as much as 2.1% to $57.50 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. The global benchmark traded at an $8.23 premium to WTI. The more-active February contract lost as much as 2.2 percent.

While Putin praised Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and said Moscow is ready to cooperate further, he said crude around $60 a barrel is “balanced and fair” and well above the level needed to to keep his government’s budget in surplus. “Putin is fine with $60, but this time next week we will be well below that if there is no deal,” said Warren Patterson, commodity strategist at ING. “I think we are going to have to see the Saudis actively reduce flows to the U.S.”

As noted yesterday, US crude stockpiles rose by 3.58 million barrels last week in the longest run of gains since November 2015, according to the Energy information Administration. The build was higher than the 1-million-barrel gain predicted in a Bloomberg survey, overshadowing a surprise draw in gasoline inventories.

“Oil has moved into our bear case scenario,” Norbert Ruecker, head of macro and commodity research at Julius Baer Group told Bloomberg. “Today’s price levels imply that the petro-nations will maintain their output hikes or that the world economy is about to slow down significantly.”

Gold has rebounded from two-week lows, as the dollar fell following comments from Fed Chairman Powell saying that the policy rate is just below the estimated neutral range. China’s steel prices have dropped following a two day gain largely due to ample supply and lean demand in markets, with iron ore now rising following Monday’s sell off. Additionally, spot Palladium has hit a record high of USD 1186.30/oz.

In geopolitical news, US Secretary of State Pompeo said he is very hopeful for a new meeting with North Korean officials to discuss denuclearization, while there were separate reports that US requested that North Korea change its chief negotiator. The US Senate voted 63-37 to advance a bill that would end US participation in Saudi Arabia-backed war in Yemen which paves way for additional vote next week, although White House has previously noted it would veto the bill if passed. Russia are to construct a missile early-warning radar station in Crimea in 2019, according to Interfax.

Expected data include personal income and jobless claims. Dollar Tree, TD Bank, HP Inc., VMware, and Workday are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2,732.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 359.89
  • MXAP up 0.7% to 153.87
  • MXAPJ up 0.6% to 493.83
  • Nikkei up 0.4% to 22,262.60
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,659.47
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.9% to 26,451.03
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.3% to 2,567.44
  • Sensex up 1.3% to 36,186.13
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 5,758.42
  • Kospi up 0.3% to 2,114.10
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.4 bps to 0.325%
  • Euro up 0.07% to $1.1374
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.2 bps to 2.888%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.4 bps to 1.519%
  • Brent futures down 1.3% to $58/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,226.36
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 96.86

Top Overnight News

  • Deutsche Bank AG’s premises including its headquarters in Frankfurt were being searched by prosecutors on Thursday in a money laundering probe, prosecutors said in a statement. In an emailed statement, Deutsche Bank confirmed that police are investigating at several German locations in relation to Panama Papers, and said it is fully cooperating with authorities.
  • President Vladimir Putin said crude around $60 a barrel is “absolutely fine” just days before talks on oil policy with Saudi Arabia
  • The Swiss economy unexpectedly shrank in the third quarter by 0.2%, blighted by a drop in exports and weak domestic demand.
  • Benchmark Treasury yields fell below 3% for the first time since September and stocks climbed in Europe and Asia after a dovish tone from the Federal Reserve chairman boosted markets ahead of this weekend’s G-20 gathering.
  • U.K. Prime Minister warned the country to prepare for a no-deal Brexit if her deal fails to be approved by the House of Commons on Dec. 11. Sterling fell sharply following the comment, down as much as 0.5% to day’s low of 1.2758.
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell opened the door for a potential pullback in projected interest-rate hikes for 2019 following a widely expected increase in December. In what was seen as a shift in tone from remarks last month, Powell said Wednesday that the Fed’s series of rate increases had brought policy to “just below” the range of estimates of neutral
  • U.K. consumer confidence slumped to the lowest in a year as the country copes with the economic uncertainty of Brexit. The index compiled by YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research fell in November and remains “notably below” where it was before the 2016 referendum to leave the European Union
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping said the global economy is at a turning point as he prepares for a critical meeting with Donald Trump this weekend. Xi said the world has to decide whether to continue working to support the global trading system. Failure to do so will lead to new barriers emerging between nations
  • President Donald Trump raised the prospect of slapping a 25 percent tariff on imported cars and ordered a review of China’s retaliatory auto tariffs against the U.S

Asian stocks traded mostly positive after risk appetite was ignited by Fed Chair Powell’s dovish comments which spurred hopes the Fed may begin to slow down on its hiking cycle and helped US stocks notch their biggest daily gain since March. ASX 200 (+0.6%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) were underpinned from the open but with gains capped amid lingering trade uncertainty and inconclusive capex data for Australia, as well as mixed Japanese retail sales and a decline in USD/JPY. Hang Seng (-0.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.3%) both initially conformed to the positive tone but then stalled amid tariff threats with Chinese President Xi’s offer of an olive branch to the US somewhat falling on deaf ears, as USTR Lighthizer said China has yet to offer meaningful proposals and suggested that the US are seeking to match China’s tariffs on autos. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally higher as they nursed the prior day’s losses after having found support around the 151.00 level and although today’s mixed 2yr auction results failed to spur a reaction, prices continued to gain as the strength in the regional stock markets moderated.

Top Asian News

  • China Is Said to Plan Major Purge of $176 Billion Loan Market
  • HNA Is Said to Widen Sales Push, Marketing More Than 90 Assets
  • Singaporean Regulators Widen Noble Group Probe to Auditor EY
  • South Korea-Japan Spat Deepens Over Mitsubishi Forced Labor Case
  • China Bond Defaults Surpass 100 Billion Yuan for 1st Time

European equities (Eurostoxx 50 +0.3%) piggybacked on the optimism seen on Wall St and during the Asia-Pac session as perceived dovish rhetoric by Fed Chair Powell continues to guide markets. Initial reports via WiWo that European Commissioner Oettinger expected US auto tariffs before Christmas resulted in downside to European equities, especially German autos, though DAX (+0.2%) saw a rebound after these comments were denied by the European Commission. Sectors are mixed with IT names the outperformer following gains seen yesterday during US hours which has prompted upside in chip-makers such as Wirecard (+3.3%), STMicrolectronics (+2.5%) and Infineon (+2.2%). Material names are also seeing support this morning, in-fitting with price action in the metals scope with gains seen in Antofagasta (+4.9%), Glencore (+1.8%), Rio Tinto (+1.1%); upside in mining names and a softer GBP has pushed the FTSE 100 (+0.8%) towards the top of the leaderboard. To the downside, energy names lag their peers with WTI and Brent crude unable to halt recent declines. In terms of stock specifics, once again, Deutsche Bank (-3.3%) have found themselves in the centre of further controversy with their offices raided earlier this morning in a money laundering probe involving two members of staff. Elsewhere, Intu Properties’ (-35%) shares have slumped to a record low this morning after reports that a consortium led by their Deputy Chairman has abandoned their plans to buy the Co.

Top European News

  • Euro-Area Economic Confidence Falls, Complicating ECB’s Mission
  • Swiss, Swedish Economies Shrink as Trade Slump Hits Europe
  • Mother and Son Lose $16 Billion in 2018 as Continental Sinks
  • Eurofins Finance Chief Says Company Has No Liquidity Problem

In FX, in the wake of Powell’s “dovish” comments that Fed Funds are “just below” estimates of the neutral rate (vs. “a long way” in October), hinting at a potential slowdown in the hiking cycle, the DXY gave up the 97.000 level and witnessed its steepest one-day percentage decline this month so far, to 96.622 at one stage. However, the USD has pared some losses with month-end  and SOMA demand still in play, while some rival currencies also suffer further weakness. Looking aheadd, FOMC Minutes are due to be published later today. GBP,EUR – Major G10 underperformer with ongoing Brexit bickering and meaningful vote concerns driving Cable below 1.2800 with a low print of 1.2759 (vs. highs of 1.2850, with offers seen between 1.2855-65) , while Sterling also fell victim to cross positioning for month end as EUR/GBP climbed above the key psychological 0.8900 level, before the single currency came under renewed pressure on latest auto tariff headlines as  press reported that EU Commissioner Oettinger expects US auto tariffs before Christmas. This pushed EUR/USD to fresh session lows of 1.1350 and bringing into play options around 1.1340-50 (3.2bln) and 1.1360-65 (1.35bln). Note, the EUR did not really react to mixed German state CPIs but did respect a key fib just ahead of 1.1400 (1.1394). Looking ahead German national CPIs are due at 13.00GMT. AUD – In contrast the AUD has showed some resilience despite lower than expected capital expenditures with the antipodean staying afloat above 0.7300. JPY – The major beneficiary of the post-Powell Dollar weakness as USD/JPY fell through 114.00, 113.50 and currently rests around 113.40. In terms of technicals, the next level to the downside is at 113.17 (tenkan line), looking ahead, Tokyo CPIs are due to be released later today. TRY – The clear EM outperformer with the currency breaching 5.1500 (and temporarily rallying through a key fib at 5.1562) vs. the buck as the move was exacerbated by the drop below 5.2000 in the wake of a significan improvement in Turkish economic confidence index and falling oil prices (as Turkey is a large net importer).

In commodities, Brent (-1.3%) and WTI (-1.0%) have moved lower recently, which may have been exacerbated by reports that 7k WTI contracts were dropped at the same time. Overnight oil prices had moved higher, despite a greater than expected build shown in EIA weekly crude stocks of 3.577mln vs. Exp. 0.769mln, with prices boosted by a stronger dollar in addition markets are looking optimistically to this weeks G20 meeting to improve global demand. Gold has rebounded from two-week lows, as the dollar fell following comments from Fed Chairman Powell saying that the policy rate is just below the estimated neutral range. China’s steel prices have dropped following a two day gain largely due to ample supply and lean demand in markets, with iron ore now rising following Monday’s sell off. Additionally, spot Palladium has hit a record high of USD 1186.30/oz.

Looking at the day ahead, much of the focus should be on the various inflation reports. In Germany we’ll get the preliminary November CPI report this afternoon where the consensus expects a small one-tenth decline to +2.3% yoy. Shortly following that we get the October PCE report in the US where the expectation is also for a modest one-tenth decline to +1.9% yoy. Alongside that data we’ll also get October personal income and spending reports in the US, followed later on by the latest weekly initial jobless claims reading, October pending home sales and the November FOMC minutes. Also due out in Europe is Q3 GDP in France, October money and credit aggregates data in the UK and November confidence indicators for the Euro Area. A busy week for central bank speak rolls on with Guindos and Angeloni speaking on behalf of the ECB, while over at the Fed Mester, Evans, Harker, Kashkari, Kaplan and Rosengren are all participating in a Boston Fed Conference on “Collaboration for Inclusive Economic Development”. Also due today is a 5y and 10y BTP auction which will be worth watching in light of recent weak retail BTP demand. Finally, G-20 finance ministers will attend a working dinner in Buenos Aires tonight before the main event kicks off tomorrow

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Powell Greets Students at 15th Annual College Fed Challenge
  • 8:30am: Personal Income, est. 0.4%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30am: Personal Spending, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%; Real Personal Spending, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30am: PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%; PCE Deflator YoY, est. 2.07%, prior 2.0%
  • 8:30am: PCE Core MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%; PCE Core YoY, est. 1.9%, prior 2.0%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,000, prior 224,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.66m, prior 1.67m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 61.3
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%; NSA YoY, est. -2.8%, prior -3.4%
  • 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 2pm: Five Fed Presidents Participate in Conference at Boston Fed
  • 3:05pm: Fed’s Kaplan Speaks at Boston Fed Conference

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As an analyst the one main currency you have is credibility. If your analysis is found suspect or biased then it’s likely the damage to your reputation will be permanent and career in ruins. I fear that after the deluge of criticism I received after yesterday’s EMR I may have crossed that line. So today I offer an unconditional apology and ask that readers give me a second chance. Maybe I was wrong when I said that “Last Christmas” by Wham is the best ever festive song.

We did also wonder yesterday whether the Santa Claus rally was underway, and in response Fed Chair Powell donned his best Father Christmas outfit and gave the market a mighty “ho, ho, ho.” His speech released at 12 EST / 5pm London time was the game changer as the S&P 500 jumped +0.79% (from only just about up on the day) immediately after he mentioned that rates now were “just below” neutral, and the index ultimately carried on the rally and closed +2.30% the best day since March and the second best this year. This comment was a notable shift from his language on October 3, when he said “we’re a long way  from neutral at this point.” Obviously this is very important as the closer that Powell thinks rates are to neutral, the sooner he may be comfortable pausing the hiking cycle. He also noted that the impacts of policy “may take a year or more to be fully realized.” While that’s pretty typical language from a Fed Chair, it is notable in the current context, since it could portend a pause once rates reach neutral. Finally, he also said that “we will be paying very close attention to what incoming economic and financial data are telling us,” committing more forcefully to data dependency than the Fed have for a while. Given recent softness in inflation data and the tightening in financial conditions, this would also argue in favour of a less hawkish rate path.

All markets reacted to Powell’s comments and in rates we immediately priced a more dovish Fed, removing 4bps of hikes from the 2019 rate path. The market continues to expect a hike at this December’s FOMC meeting, but now prices in only 31.5bps of additional hikes over the course of next year, compared to the Fed’s median expectation for 75bps at last count. Two-year Treasury yields fell -2.0bps, and while 10-year yields closed close to flat (+0.4bps), real yields fell -2.7bps (inflation breakevens rose +3.1bps). Elsewhere the dollar depreciated -0.55%, as emerging market currencies gained +0.71% and EM equities advanced +2.39%. Other US equities also rallied, with the DOW, NASDAQ, and NYFANG indexes up +2.50%, +2.95%, and +2.90% respectively. That caps the third session in a row of US equity gains, with the DOW gaining +4.45% over that period, the best such streak since June 2016.

This morning in Asia, markets are largely trading higher with the Nikkei (+0.69%), Shanghai Comp (+0.28%) and Kospi (+0.47%) all up while Hang Seng (-0.04%) is trading flattish. However, most markets are trading off their highs as the overnight rhetoric between the US and China seems to be weighing on sentiment (more on this below). Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (-0.19%) are pointing towards a slightly softer start and Crude oil prices (WTI +1.01% and Brent +0.75%) are up this morning.

Ahead of the meeting between the US President Trump and China’s President Xi Jingping on the sidelines of the G20 summit, the South China Morning Post reported that the Chinese President is likely to offer the US a deal comprising of an offer to provide greater market access to US companies and fewer subsidies to the state enterprises along with better protection for intellectual property. However, the source said that the Chinese offer could be a oneshot deal and that if the US refuses to accept the deal at the meeting then there is a possibility that there will be no deal and “we have to see who can bear the economic pain longer.” In the meantime, President Trump raised the prospect of slapping a 25% tariff on imported cars and ordered a review of China’s retaliatory auto tariffs against the US, likely in response to the General Motors announcement of plant closures in the US. The US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer also said that China has not offered any meaningful proposals yet ahead of the G20 meeting while adding that China’s policies on auto tariffs are ‘egregious’ and the US will examine tools to equalize tariffs on autos as instructed by President Trump. So the stakes are getting higher ahead of the weekend.

Back to yesterday and prior to Powell, markets in Europe largely limped to the finish following a mostly unspectacular session. The STOXX 600 and the CAC both closed flat, while the DAX fell -0.09%. An index of euro-denominated HY bond spreads widened +1.8bps to match its recent high – the widest level since June 2016. The euro had been trading flat versus the dollar until Powell, after which it rallied +0.70%.

A busy week for the Fed continues with the November FOMC minutes this evening. Some of the interest level has probably been taken out of them given we’ve had Clarida and Powell speak in the last two days however we should still learn a good deal more about the Committee’s discussion of its operating framework and potential for another technical adjustment to the IOER at the December 19 meeting.

Here in the UK, both the BoE and the government yesterday published their various Brexit scenarios with the former also releasing the latest annual bank stress tests – which all banks passed. For the hard Brexit scenarios, look away now if you’re a recent UK homeowner. The BoE warned that at the bearish end with a “disorderly” scenario, GDP would contract -8% within a year, while house prices would fall by -30%, commercial property prices fall -48% and Sterling fall -25% to below parity with the dollar. So we UK homeowners will see our property down over 50% in dollar terms!! Inflation would also accelerate to 6.5% and the base rate to rise to 5.5%. In a scenario in which the UK retains a “Close Economic Partnership” with the EU, including comprehensive arrangements for free trade in goods and some trade in business and financial services, then GDP would be between 1.25% and 3.75% lower over a 5 year forecast relative to where it would have been without the vote. Note a lot of these forecasts assume notable BoE rate hikes to combat higher inflation. Such a hawkish policy response is a bit hard to envision, given the BoE responded to the initial Brexit vote by easing policy aggressively, nevermind the weaker pound and higher inflation outlook. So these forecasts are highly, highly uncertain.

As for the government report, at the most bearish end, assuming no deal and zero EEA migration, UK GDP would be as much as 10.7% lower over 15 years. While there wasn’t an exact modelled representation of the deal agreed with the EU, a halfway point between May’s ideal plan and a regular free-trade arrangement would see GDP as much as 3.9% lower than it would have been assuming no migration and 2.1% lower with migration. When it was all said and done Sterling was trading close to flat on the releases, but it was subsequently caught in the Powell-driven dollar selloff and ultimately rallied +0.64% versus the greenback.

Staying with Europe, there were a few interesting headlines out of the ECB worth noting yesterday. Quoting Euro Area officials, Bloomberg reported that the ECB expects to confirm the end of net asset purchases next month, and also that the central bank sees no need to announce a replacement for TLTRO2 at present. The story also hinted at the possibility of clarifying what the “extended period” means with regards to fully reinvesting maturing bonds after the end of net purchases. So this would suggest that next month’s meeting is likely to be squarely focused on the QE and reinvestment decisions. Our European economists’ baseline view is that it is highly unlikely that the ECB extends QE, the Governing Council reiterates the broad narrative of above-trend growth and confidence in inflation normalisation, and that there is eventually a replacement for TLTRO2 to avoid a disorderly deleveraging. Indeed, the team don’t rule out a hint in that direction from Draghi in next month’s press conference.

Later in the day, the expected new Chief Economist of the ECB, Philip Lane, confirmed that a rate increase will be data dependent in the second half of 2019, and also that the ECB is starting to see more heat in the labour market. These weren’t particularly ground-breaking comments, but Lane’s rhetoric will be important to watch going forward given his expected new position within the ECB. As for markets, after yields bottomed out early in the session, bonds mostly weakened with the improved sentiment. Bunds retraced gains of -1.7bps to close flat.

The BTP curve was a lot more mixed by comparison with the short end selling off (two-year +3.4bps) with the belly stronger (10-year -3.3bps). There wasn’t a great deal of new information to feed off however with headlines remaining fairly contradictory. Finance Minister Tria told the Senate that “we need to clarify to our partners in Europe that the aim of the budget is to tackle concrete problems, and certainly not to organise an affront to Europe or organise an exit from the euro.” Meanwhile, Italian PM Conte was reported as saying that the Government had not decided on a new deficit target for 2019, but also that the Government would do anything necessary to find an agreement with the EU.

In other markets, oil prices were sharply lower once more with WTI and Brent ending the day -2.39% and -2.44% respectively. Despite headlines that both Saudi Arabia and Nigeria were confident about OPEC succeeding in stabilizing prices, Russian President Putin poured cold water on the prospects for a deal.

He said that Brent prices around $60 per barrel are “absolutely fine” for his country, suggesting limited motivation to make an output cap deal at December 6’s OPEC meeting. Later in the session, US crude oil inventories rose more than expected, increasing by 3.6 million barrels. That’s the 10th consecutive weekly inventory build, the longest such streak in three years.

As for the economic data that was out yesterday, there weren’t any great surprises from the releases in the US. There was no change to the second estimate of Q3 GDP in the US at 3.5% qoq saar with downward revisions to consumer spending offset by upward revisions to fixed investment and inventories. Notably, the details showed that corporate profits during the quarter grew at 10.3% yoy which is the strongest pace since Q2 2012 while the core PCE was downgraded by 10bps to 1.49% annualized – enough to move the year over year rate down slightly to 1.96% albeit still close enough to target. Meanwhile the October advance goods trade deficit was confirmed as widening to $77.2bn from $76.3bn, and a bit more than expected. Wholesale inventories rose a greater than expected +0.7% mom (vs. +0.4% expected) during October, new home sales fell unexpectedly (-8.9% mom vs. +4.0% expected) and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index slipped 1pt this month to +14.

Looking at the day ahead, much of the focus should be on the various inflation reports. In Germany we’ll get the preliminary November CPI report this afternoon where the consensus expects a small one-tenth decline to +2.3% yoy. Shortly following that we get the October PCE report in the US where the expectation is also for a modest one-tenth decline to +1.9% yoy. Alongside that data we’ll also get October personal income and spending reports in the US, followed later on by the latest weekly initial jobless claims reading, October pending home sales and the November FOMC minutes. Also due out in Europe is Q3 GDP in France, October money and credit aggregates data in the UK and November confidence indicators for the Euro Area. A busy week for central bank speak rolls on with Guindos and Angeloni speaking on behalf of the ECB, while over at the Fed Mester, Evans, Harker, Kashkari, Kaplan and Rosengren are all participating in a Boston Fed Conference on “Collaboration for Inclusive Economic Development”. Also due today is a 5y and 10y BTP auction which will be worth watching in light of recent weak retail BTP demand. Finally, G-20 finance ministers will attend a working dinner in Buenos Aires tonight before the main event kicks off tomorrow

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 34.29 POINTS OR 1.32% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 231.53 POINTS OR 0.87% //The Nikkei closed UP 85.38 OR 0.39%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .64%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9439 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil DOWN to 50.93 dollars per barrel for WTI and 57.87 for Brent. Stocks inEurope OPENED GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.9439AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9375: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

END

3 C CHINA

Your most important commentary of the day: Snider comments correctly that dollars outside the USA system (eurodollars) has collapsed in numbers probably due to the USA higher interest rate policy and its huge deficits are sucking in dollars from around the world.  That has created problems for our emerging markets and also most importantly China which has needed foreign investments to grease their economy.  Now that dollars are leaving, the CNY is falling in value and we now have a risk of citizens moving their dollars (which are hidden) out to Switzerland or other safe havens. This is setting up a huge deflationary problem for the world as the yuan will spike greater than 7.5 or 8.0 to one USA dollars and with that, China will flood with world with cheap goods and this will idle European and other shops as they simple could not compete.

a must read..

(courtesy Snider/Alhambra Partners)

 

“They Warned Us” – We Haven’t Seen Anything Like This Since The

Darkest Days Of 2015/16

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

We can add this to the list of all the things going wrong in October. If it felt like a wave of renewed deflation built up and swept over markets and the global economy, it’s because that’s just what had happened. I don’t think it random coincidence the WTI curve went contango and oil prices globally crashed when they did. Golden Weeks in China are always interesting, especially on the reopen.

There are two facts as they pertain to China in 2018. The first is the nation’s clear monetary trouble. The second is why it has (re)emerged.

The statistics for the first part were pretty grim last month, accounting for much of why October was such a major global mess. The People’s Bank of China has been forced into cutting back on monetary growth in base measures all year. This all changed in January, the same time the global economy began to come crashing back down from its low-level reflation in 2017.

Without foreign assets, eurodollars, flowing onto its balance sheet on the asset side the central bank can only restrict growth on the money (liability) side. Factoring the cash needs for the central government, the result has been an increasing squeeze on the RMB base. This includes, ominously, actual cash in circulation.

In October, currency issue expanded by just 2.6% year-over-year. That brings the 6-month average down to 2.7%, which is the lowest average (not counting New Year January/February distortions) in all of the published PBOC data. They’ve just about turned off the literal printing press in China.

For the banking system, the external monetary noose tightened much more.This, of course, was perfectly predictable. China’s central bank practically announced what was going to happen when it cut the RRR during this very month in question. I wrote when the country reopened from its National Holiday week last month:

The RRR cut signals that the reserve problem therefore dollar problem is anticipated to grow worse. The PBOC is actually telling us that they expect in the months ahead the same or perhaps bigger commitment to “stepped up support.” CNY doesn’t need support if there is no worsening “capital outflow” situation of retreating eurodollar funding.

This will require more monetary contraction in bank reserves than we’ve already seen. The central bank is forecasting more problems ahead.

Both parts have since been shown to be true; facts. China expended more “foreign reserves” than they had been in trying to support CNY. That caused contraction on the PBOC’s asset side, now confirmed by that institution. The net result was both the lowest currency growth on record (above) as well as a huge contraction in bank reserves (below).

How big?

We haven’t seen anything like this since the darkest days of 2015-16. Deposits of Other Depository Corporations, the technical liability of the PBOC that counts as RMB bank reserves, crashed by 7.9% year-over-year in October. Unlike the January-February New Year holidays, the October Golden Week doesn’t move up and down the calendar, meaning that the numbers presented here are all apples to apples.

These are no statistical flukes.

This fills out the picture of October’s liquidations inside as well as outside of China. It is most certainly a deflationary squeeze, and one whose origin we know too well. The only positive we can take from the PBOC’s participation is how it gives us a very good sense of what is going on in the global currency shadows.

This is one of the few major statistics that shed light on what is otherwise almost totally hidden. And you needn’t possess any advanced training in derivatives, wholesale funding, or cross border flow accounting to understand what’s going on here.

It isn’t debatable, nor is there any ambiguity. China has a huge monetary problem on its hands, and one that is denominated in dollars but often has nothing whatsoever to do with the United States except for that one quirk.

This problem is growing, giving us a good sense of why things have turned and why they might not be done moving in the wrong direction. Not in some unique fashion but under the same kind of disruptive influence we’ve seen three times already in the last ten years.

I wrote yesterday:

It is the combination of those two things which has left us with one lost decade and beginning a second staring into yet another downturn. The world needs (euro)dollars (short) but the global banking system no longer produces them in sufficient quantity (shortage). So long as both parts remain true, false dawn reflations are the best we are going to see.

The Communist Chinese have been kind enough to prove these assertions through nothing more than simple balance sheet, monetary accounting.

The big downside, of course, is the entire global economy bears the brunt of what those numbers show. Again.

end
After Trump initially states that things are going in the right direction with China, the markets fall back when Navarro is back on the dinner list.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks Slump On Report Navarro Back On Xi Dinner Guest List

US equities are taking a sudden turn for the worse as The South China Morning Post reports that White House trade adviser – and its most ardent China hawk – Peter Navarro, is back on the guest list for the Trump-Xi dinner after being initially left off the list.

Initially, stocks jumped as President Donald Trump said he is very close to “doing something” on China ahead of a planned meeting Saturday with President Xi Jinping.

“We’re very close to doing something with China,” Trump told reporters Thursday as he departed the White House to travel to Buenos Aires for the Group of 20 Summit with global leaders. “I want to do it.”

“I really don’t know but I will tell you that I think China wants to make a deal,” he continued. “I like the deal we have right now.”

But the news that Navvaro will be at the dinner implies no change in tone ahead of the meeting and stocks are fading on that…

Aninda Mitra, senior sovereign analyst at BNY Mellon Investment Management, wrote in a note this week that the odds of a Sino-US deal versus no deal on trade tariffs was “about 50:50 in the market’s view”.

The possibility of the summit ending in open conflict is smaller than 5 per cent, while the chances the meeting will end with “no significant agreement” – putting Washington on track to raise tariffs on Chinese products as planned on January 1 – has a 30 per cent chance, Mitra said.

The odds of the meeting ending with “deliberate ambiguity on whether the January 1 tariff increase will happen” has a 40 per cent probability.

Mitra rated the prospect of a clear statement from the two leaders that the tariff increase would be put on hold at just 25 per cent.

The South China Morning Post reported last week that Navarro, one of the most prominent China hawks in the Trump administration, would not attend the Trump-Xi dinner. But a source, who has been briefed on the latest arrangements for the meeting, said Navarro would now be part of the Trump team in Buenos Aires.

Navarro is likely to join US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, National Security Adviser John Bolton, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to accompany Trump at the dinner, the results of which will affect the world’s economy for years to come.

The inclusion of Navarro means the number of people each president can bring to the table could be increased to eight or more and highlights the uncertainty surrounding the meeting, the first between Trump and Xi since the trade war broke out.

end
China has a section of the large shadow banking sector called P to P or Peer to Peer.  Here we have individuals loaning to corporations money and receiving a good interest rate. The total shadow banking sector  is 9 trillion dollars.  The P to P is 176 billion . The government wants to purge this sector which will no doubt create more social unrest.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Amid Social Unrest, China Set To Purge $176 Billion P2P Loan Market

Back in August, when discussing the source of China’s next debt crisis“, namely the recent explosion in Chinese household debt which over the past year has soared by over 40% even as credit growth across other debt categories remained relatively stable…

… and which was on the verge of surpassing the nation’s corporations as the biggest source of credit demand, we highlighted the one financial sector that has recently emerged as most at risk in China’s economy: online peer-to-peer lenders who collect money from retail investors and dispense small loans to consumers, usually without collateral, putting the loans at risk of a default with zero recovery.

We pointed out that outstanding loans on P2P platforms rose 50% just last year to total Rmb1.49 trillion ($215 billion) – making the size of China’s P2P industry far bigger than in the rest of the world combined – and due to their lack of collateral, interest rates often are as high as 37%, with additional charges for late payment.

P2P, in which platforms gather funds from retail investors and loan the money to small corporate and individual borrowers, promising high returns, started to flourish nearly unregulated in China in 2011. At its peak in 2015, there were about 3,500 such businesses.

But after Beijing launched a campaign several years ago to defuse debt bubbles and reduce risks in the economy (a campaign which recently reversed once the Trump trade war started getting hot), including the country’s enormous non-bank lending sector, cracks began to appear as investors pulled their funds.

As a result, the peer-to-peer lending channel not only got clogged up, but went in reverse with the WSJ reporting over the summer that a string of Chinese internet lenders have already shut their doors in recent weeks, stranding investors as the economy slows and regulators tighten controls over an unruly side of the fintech sector.

Across China, more than 200 internet-based fund managers since late June have either shut down, closed parts of their operations or are reeling from cash crunches, missing executives and other problems, according to industry tracker Wangdaizhijia.

The tide began to turn even more forcefully against the sector ahead of a late June deadline for new stringent registration regulations. With a slowing economy making it difficult for some companies to pay back loans, many lenders decided to simply shut down. Meanwhile, investors, already souring on the sector, began pulling out funds, further pinching the lending platforms, and as Reuters reports, since June, 243 online lending platforms have gone bust, according to wdzj.com, a P2P industry data provider. In that period, the industry saw its first monthly net fund outflows since at least 2014.

And, as we further noted, it was only a matter of time before social unrest spread as Chinese investors who had funded these usually small, unregulated P2P operations, found they had lost all their money demanding a bail out. That’s precisely what happened… except for one thing: Beijing was already one step ahead of the protesters which is why when in our follow up article we wrote that “Social Unrest Breaks Out In China After “Panic” Bank Run On Peer-2-Peer Lenders“, the government was ready and quickly arrested all those who, having lost money on P2P, took to the streets to demand a bailout.

A police officer gestures at the photographer as security patrol outside the
headquarters of China’s banking regulator, to prevent planned protests by
investors who lost money from collapsed P2P online lending platforms.

By that point China however, had had enough, and as Bloomberg writes, today, Beijing is preparing to end its $176 billion experiment with peer-to-peer lending.

Alarmed by a surge in defaults, fraud and investor anger, Chinese authorities are planning to wind down small- and medium-sized P2P lending platforms nationwide, people with knowledge of the matter said. Regulators may also order the largest platforms to cap outstanding loans at current levels and encourage them to reduce lending over time, one of the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private deliberations. Shares of P2P platform operators sank in New York.

The shakeout of the P2P industry, which expands on a city-level purge in the P2P hub of Hangzhou, is the clearest sign yet that Chinese leaders want to dramatically shrink a market that spawned the nation’s biggest Ponzi scheme, protests in major cities, and life-altering losses for thousands of savers.

The imminent crackdown on what was recently the most generous, if expensive, source of credit suggests that Xi Jinping’s government isn’t done cracking down on China’s $9 trillion shadow banking industry, despite concern that tougher rules have choked the flow of credit to the world’s second-largest economy.

“Regulators are making it even more difficult for P2P platforms to survive, especially the smaller ones, so that the public won’t suffer more losses,” said Yu Baicheng, Shanghai-based head of research at 01Caijing, an independent internet finance researcher.

Peer 2 Peer lending, especially its online version, has had a rocky several years, starting off euphorically but subsequently suffering from a surge in nonperforming loans as debtors found they had been less than discriminating in who they granted loans.

Marketed as an innovative way to match savers with small borrowers, P2P platforms have had a rocky run globally. U.S.-based LendingClub Corp., battered by a corporate a governance scandal and investor withdrawals, has tumbled 77 percent since its 2014 listing in New York.

Meanwhile in China, as discussed previously, P2P platforms have comprise one of the riskiest and least regulated slices of the shadow banking system. The lack of oversight has allowed for world-beating growth, with outstanding P2P loans ballooning from almost nothing in 2012 to 1.22 trillion yuan ($176 billion).

And as the story so often goes, at first the platforms worked mostly as intended with savers enjoying double-digit yields with few defaults, while small companies secured cash to fund their growth. About 50 million investors signed up as P2P platforms opened at a rate of three a day.

However, some time in late 2016, problems started to emerge as China’s economy slowed and liquidity conditions tightened. One of the first big signs of trouble: the unraveling in early 2016 of a P2P platform described by authorities as a $7.6 billion Ponzi scheme Ezubao that defrauded 900,000 people.

Not long after, Chinese policy makers started a campaign to clean up the country’s shadow banking system. The clampdown further restricted access to credit and fueled a wave of P2P platform closures. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission Chairman Guo Shuqing warned savers in June that they should be prepared to lose all their money in high-yield products, underscoring the government’s intention to avoid a big rescue and the associated moral hazard.

As a result, over the past 2 years, more than 80% of China’s 6,200 P2P platforms have now either closed or encountered serious difficulties, due to factors ranging from take-the-money-and-run schemes to poor investments, according to Shanghai-based researcher Yingcan Group. The platforms had more than 1.5 million clients and 112 billion yuan of outstanding loans.

Meanwhile, having suffered dramatic losses, hundreds of affected P2P investors organized protests in cities including Shanghai, only to be turned back by police as we discussed in August. At least one victim of P2P fraud, a 31-year-old woman from Zhejiang province, reportedly committed suicide after losing almost $40,000.

At this point Beijing launched a real crackdown, starting in Hangzhou, the Chinese fintech hub that’s home to Jack Ma’s Alibaba Group Holding, where regulators told some P2P platforms with less than 100 million yuan of outstanding loans to wind down and repay customers within 12 months, Bloomberg reported earlier this month.

And now, authorities plan to issue similar orders to platforms in other cities and provinces, including Shanghai and Beijing.

Even the nation’s biggest P2P platform operators appear to be anticipating tougher times ahead. CreditEase, the parent company of Yirendai, China’s first listed P2P business, has begun distancing itself from the industry.

“We are today much more than a P2P,” Ning Tang, CreditEase’s founder and chief executive officer said in a Bloomberg Television interview this month. “When we started the company, we invented China’s marketplace lending model. Today, we are a fintech company.”

Ultimately, analysts expect virtually all of the industry to be shuttered or pivot to other activities:

“Clearly, things have been messy,” said Tang Shengbo, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Nomura Securities Co. who estimates that at least 80 percent of China’s remaining P2P platforms will eventually shut. “The industry is heading for a massive consolidation.”

As Bloomberg concludes, it’s unclear what will ultimately remain of China’s P2P market after the clampdown, with only a few companies expected to survive. Only 50 of today’s 1,200 platforms are likely to get regulatory approval to keep operating, according to Citigroup. The industry’s outstanding loans have already dropped by more than 30 percent from the peak.

Meanwhile, as yet another key source of funding for many in China’s shadow economy closes, China’s traditional sources of credit issuance continue to dry up – with total social financing growth recently dropping to an all time low

…forcing China’s economy to slow even further until one day not even Xi will be able to keep blaming the ongoing trade war with Trump for the rising tide of troubles affecting his economy.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

Germany

Our good friends over at Deutsche bank, the world’s largest derivative player are not happy campers today.

They have been raided by German police at their Frankfurt headquarters.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Deutsche Bank Shares Slide As Police Raid Frankfurt Headquarters

Already a melting ice cube struggling with an overbearing derivatives exposure and myriad legal risks, Deutsche Bank has seemingly bounced from one criminal scandal to the next since the crisis, incurring billions of dollars in fines along the way. So it’s hardly surprising that the bank’s shareholders let out a collective groan Thursday morning when the BBC reported that German police had raided the bank’s Frankfurt headquarters, sending the bank’s shares lower by 2% to fresh all-time lows and renewing fears that DB could face a devastating, potentially bankruptcy-inducing, fine. 

DB

Roughly 170 police officers, tax inspector and prosecutors fanned out across Frankfurt to search several DB buildings, according to the BBCGermany’s public prosecutor has said the raid is connected with the role of two employees in money laundering. 

The Frankfurt headquarters of Deutsche Bank have been raided by prosecutors in a money laundering investigation.

Germany’s public prosecutor alleged that two staff members have helped clients launder money from criminal activities.

Police cars were seen outside the tower blocks that house the headquarters of Germany’s biggest bank.

Other Deutsche offices in the city were searched in an operation involving about 170 police and officials.

The raid comes as DB is facing inquiries pertaining to the role its correspondent bank played in facilitating the historic money laundering fraud at Danske bank’s tiny Estonian branch. Earlier this month, a whistle blower implicated DB in the scandal and claimed that it helped clear $150 billion of the ‘suspicious’ $234 billion reportedly filtered through the bank by criminals in the former Soviet Union (and possibly even the family of President Vladimir Putin).

Anonymously sourced reports claimed that the raid was connected with the revelations in the ‘Panama Papers’ Mossack Fonseca document dump, which exposed the bank’s role in helping wealthy individuals hide money from their respective countries. Back in August, German banking regulator BaFin demanded that DB improve its regulatory controls. These demands came nearly one year after the bank was fined $700 million for helping wealthy Russians move $700 million out of the country in the now-infamous ‘mirror trading’ scandal. 

In 2016 alone, more than 900 clients doing a combined 311 billion euros in business with the bank dealt with an opaque British Virgin Islands based unit of the bank.

In total, the bank has racked up some $18 billion in fines since the crisis: 

DB’s new CEO Christian Sewing has only been running the bank for a few months. But as we noted earlier this week, he’s already making moves to change up the senior management, as we reported earlier this week. Among a raft of executives expected to depart the bank was Deutsche’s Chief Regulatory Officer Sylvie Matherat, who reportedly had expressed concerns about the bank’s inadequate controls against financial crime.

Matherat has told associates she might need to prepare to leave the bank, and has expressed unhappiness with what she described to some associates as constraints to improving financial-crime controls and mending Deutsche Bank’s relationships with regulators, some of the people say.

Matherat, who joined the bank three years ago, was reportedly facing pressure from Sewing over her ability to improve processes for detecting and preventing money laundering and other violations through the division she supervises. But the reality is that DB’s criminal problems started long before her tenure, and expecting the bank’s deeply ingrained “ethical” problems to be fixed in one generation of management is simply ridiculous (meanwhile, investment-bank head Garth Ritchie is reportedly on his way out over “performance concerns”.)

Investors are clearly not happy. After all, if the bank becomes weighed down with toxic legal risks, it will be much more difficult for Sewing to sell it.

END
Germany now doubles the payout to migrants if they agree to leave the country
(courtesy zerohedge)

Germany Doubles Payout To Migrants Who Agree To Leave The Country

As unbelievable as it might sound, as it struggled to reduce the destabilizing influx of refugees and migrants flooding into Germany, the coalition government led by Angela Merkel launched a campaign last year offering rejected asylum seekers financial aid if they and their families opt to return to their home countries. The money, as we reported at the time, would go toward paying their rent for their first year back, with some left over for general expenses.

But what’s perhaps maybe more unbelievable, the numbers of asylum seekers applying for the program have fallen precipitously over the past year. In 2017, 29,000 people opted for the “voluntary repatriation” program – which bears the catchy title “Your Country, Your Future Now!” But that number has fallen dramatically to just 14,000 through the end of October, according to RT. To qualify, applicants must revoke their initial asylum applications and drop any appeals or further proceedings in Germany’s backlogged asylum courts.

Germany

So, in a bid to entice more migrants into taking advantage of the program, Germany’s Interior Ministry has launched an advertising campaign, hoping to boost the numbers of voluntary repatriations. However, the ads, which have been placed on the billboards in major German cities over the past few weeks, have become controversial, as those who haven’t already rejected Merkel’s “Open Doors” policy have taken to defacing the advertisements, decrying them as “anti-refugee”.

In addition to the thousands of euros that qualifying migrants would receive should they choose to take part in the program, the ads also promised those who took advantage of the program an additional monetary gift: In addition to paying their rent, Germany will also pay for their family’s return trip to their country of origin.

Rival lawmakers blasted the plan as  a”cynical” attempt to mask the ministry’s failures.

“The latest campaign of the interior ministry looks like a sort of a winter sales and that is cynical,” Konstantin von Notz, the deputy head of the Greens faction in the Bundestag, told Berliner Morgenpost daily. “It is apparently aimed at concealing [the ministry’s] own failures and improving the figures related to people, who voluntarily left the country, before the end of the year.”

Ordinary German also didn’t appreciate the new push, but for a different reason: They saw it as “anti immigrant” and as sending the message to asylum seekers that “Germany is not your land and your future is not here.”

As a result, graffiti has appeared on many of the signs.

Tim Santen@Santon14

“Dein Land. Deine Zukunft. JETZT!”

Übersetzt: “Hier ist nicht dein Land. Wird es nie werden. Verpiss Dich.”

Horst hat es doch sonst so mit Klartext?! Peinlich, Deutschland.

Germany initially offered €1,200 ($1,360) to refugees who wouldn’t fight deportation. But under the new initiative, that sum has been increased to  €3,000 ($3,400). That’s more than double the original payout.

Dominik Mai@dominikmai

Ziemlich geschmacklose Werbung des @BMI_Bund – hängt zum Beispiel am #Hermannplatz

View image on Twitter

Ezgi Güler@esgimo

Die Botschaft: DEIN LAND ist nicht Deutschland. DEINE ZUKUNFT ist nicht hier. Am besten du gehst. JETZT!

Embedded video

RT Deutsch

@RT_Deutsch

“Dein Land. Deine Zukunft. Jetzt.” – Seehofers Plakatkampagne erhitzt die Gemüterhttps://deutsch.rt.com/inland/79946-dein-land-deine-zukunft-jetzt-seehofers-plakatkampagne-sorgt-fuer-irritationen/ 

View image on Twitter

Klaus Müller@zeitschleifen

Weg mit #RückkehrWerbung des BMI!
Dein Land! Deine Zukunft! JETZT! Aber bitte nicht in Deutschland. Weg mit Rückkehr-Werbung des BMI!https://www.change.org/p/bmi-bund-weg-mit-r%c3%bcckkehrwerbung-des-bmi-deinezukunftohnehorst/sign 

It’s surprising that more migrants aren’t seeking to take advantage of the program, because one would imagine that, by offering such a hefty financial incentive, some migrants might calculate that it would be worth it to travel to Germany solely with the intention of dropping their asylum proceedings and taking the money.

 

END

EU
Macron is one big screwball.  He initiated a diesel tax to which the populace revolted.  Total SA, Europe’s largest refiner of diesel has shut down and that has caused the price of diesel to skyrocket. Riots are everywhere as France burns.  Now Europe gas stations are reporting that they have run out of diesel supplies.
(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

European Gas Stations Out Of Diesel: French Refinery Strike Deepens Crisis

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Diesel is in short supply in Europe. The situation is about to worsen as the biggest French refinery is shutting down.

Bloomberg reports Europe’s Diesel Woes Deepen as Strike Halts French Oil Refinery.

Total SA, France’s biggest refiner, is in the process of shutting its largest plant in the country, the 247,000-barrel-a-day Gonfreville facility in Normandy, due to a labor dispute, a spokeswoman for the company said on Tuesday. A few hundred miles away, in the Netherlands, retail fuel stations are running out of supplies because of shipping constraints on the Rhine, according to Royal Dutch Shell Plc.

Shell said Nov. 20 that it cut production at its Rheinland refining site, the biggest complex of its kind in Germany, due to low water levels on the Rhine. In a tweet on Tuesday, the company said that it was temporarily unable to supply some unmanned fuel stations in the Netherlands.

Gas stations in Germany had already been running dry due to the situation on the Rhine, a major petroleum product transportation corridor that runs northwest from the Swiss Alps all the way to the Netherlands. Switzerland released emergency fuel stockpiles because of the situation on the river.

The premium per barrel of diesel over Brent crude – another indicator of market strength – was at $15.96 on Tuesday, the highest for the time of year in six years.

Diesel Price Poised to Soar

This shutdown cannot possibly come at a worse time for French President Emmanuel Macron.

Macron is already reeling over a protest of his diesel tax.

Diesel Tax Turns Violent

People from across France went to Paris to let the president know how they feel about the taxes in general and the tax on diesel. The [Diesel Tax Protests](Diesel Protests in France Turn Violent) then turned violent.

Expect more reactions when the price skyrockets.

Macron Proposes Shutting Down Nuclear Power

In another poorly-timed announcement, France president Emmanuel Macron unveils plan to reduce reliance on nuclear energy.

Amid daily protests about high energy prices, Mr Macron said Francewill shut down 14 nuclear reactors by 2035.

France depends more on nuclear energy than any other country, getting about three-quarters of its electricity from its 19 nuclear plants.

The French leader promised to develop renewable energy instead, saying his priority is weaning France’s economy from fuel that contributes to global warming.

Say What?

Excuse me for pointing out that nuclear energy does not add to greenhouse gasses, not that this whole global warming scare makes much sense in the first place.

Macron’s Latest Brainchild

Mr Macron also said the government will find a way to delay tax increases on fuel during periods when world oil prices are rising.

Excuse me for pointing out that the diesel protest came when oil prices were falling.

In an attempt to calm the protesters, Mr Macron proposed a three-month consultation with associations and activist groups, including the so-called “yellow jackets” who have led the recent protests, about how best to handle the rising energy costs.

Yeah right. That’s sure to work.

Floating in Outer Space

Courtesy of the New York Times, here’s the comment of the day:

He seems to be deaf,” said Fabrice Schlegel, who has helped lead some of the citizen protests that have convulsed France in recent weeks.

‘‘He’s talking to us about the ‘ecological transition.’ This is a politician who is floating in outer space.”

Macron’s Foot in Mouth Disease

Macron’s diesel and nuclear gaffes are on top of his threat to Keep EU in Perpetual “Temporary” Customs Union Backstop.

Actually, I am happy for Macron for those custom union threats.

Hopefully it will wake up the UK parliament enough to vote down this pathetic deal that Theresa May is attempting to cram down the UK’s throat.

END
Bill Blain explains the strange Pimco deal where it buys the entire 3 billion euros of debt offered by Italy’s largest banks  Unicredit. In a nutshell  Pimco is betting that Brussels must support Italy despite the country’s anger at now allowing a budgetary deficit of 2.4%.  Pimco is stating that the ECB must buy Italian bonds ad infinitum
(courtesy Bill Blain)

Blain: “European Elections In May Will See The Entire EU Leadership Replaced”

 

I don’t know what Carney is smoking, or if he’s just decided to play an all-or-nothing hand with his unsubstantiated threat house prices will fall 30%. That is playing with fire. Quote of the morning goes to Andrew Sentance, the well-respected ex-member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. He slams into his former boss:  “The reputation of economic forecasts has taken a bad blow today with both the UK government and the Bank appearing to use forecasts to support political objectives. Let’s debate Brexit — which I strongly oppose — rationally without recourse to bogus forecasts,” he said.”

Enough said… Sentance should get the job.

Meanwhile, in a galaxy far far away… Pimco just made a big bet on Italy. They’ve bought an entire $3 bln issue of Unicredito 5 year non-preferred senior bonds at a yield of 7.83%! That’s a spread 6 times wider on a swap adjusted basis to where its Euro denominated bonds traded back in January. It’s not the only big bet the investment firm has taken on Italy – it’s played big in BTPs and Italian NPLS (non-performing loans).

Pimco’s bets on Italy might make sense. Italy shifts from sell to buy to sell in heartbeats at the moment, but the trend is positive for spreads to tighten. The populist coalition government has “stepped back” on threats to breach EU debt rules – saying just enough about reducing the budget deficit by a cosmetic amount to defuse an immediate crisis.

Europe can relax that a concurrent Italy crisis alongside Brexit is avoided, but it won’t stop Italy: European elections in May will see the entire EU leadership replaced, and its likely a new parliament of rabid populists will be elected! Don’t be surprised if the Italians simply do what they want behind the sturm und drang of the electoral confusion and noise. To get their economy working they need to spend money the EU won’t let them! Don’t be surprised if it just happens and Brussels pretends not to notice. Don’t be surprised if the Germans get shirty!

The second part of Pimco’s thinking may be the systemic importance of Unicredit in Italian banking and thus the EU. A major bank Italian bank failure, or bail in of senior debt, could trigger not only instability across the Union, but could also get difficult questions asked about French and German banks that could well swamp them. As the French and Germans are not (ever, never, ever) going to let their banks go to the wall, Pimco is gaming the Italians won’t let Unicredit go either.

For the Italian banks, the outlook did look bleak. They are the major holders of Italian debt, and are only now cleaning up balance sheets and capitalisation levels trashed by aeons of unaddressed bad lending.  As always, there are ways to “finesse” these problems. The EU is fast-tracking legislation to allow the banks to reduce capital allocated to Non-Performing loans (NPLs), while the regulators have invented new forms of cheap, non-combustible capital, that will make it look like banks are better capitalised.

Unicredit had to issue this $3 bln quasi-capital bond to look like it was doing its bit in the great confidence trickery that is Italian banking. Although it’s called senior, non-preferred debt, it’s not really senior debt – its quasi senior debt masquerading as capital. Confused? You will be. Senior non-preferred debt is the new way to describe debt that can be bailed-in if it fails. As it can be bailed-in, its capital. It ranks where senior debt used to rank on the subordination ladder – below equity and sub debt – but now makes clear it ranks ahead of “operational liabilities”. I’d call it not-quite-subordinate-and-worse-than-senior debt, because that’s a more honest way to describe it.

Meanwhile, Pimco is also betting on Italy. Since the European sovereign debt crisis erupted in the 2010s, analysts have repeatedly predicted the imminent demise of the country’s debt markets and that Italy will be swallowed up in a sea of defaulting debt. After all, Italy is making the schoolboy error of not issuing in its own currency – it issues in Euros, which is set according to the speed of the strongest economy. While Germany’s productivity and wages have been rising – Italy has become increasingly less competitive and less well paid. In short, Italy is issuing in Germany’s currency while it massively underperforms Germany, meaning it has to raise more and more debt just to stand still. Reform would require even more debt!

The lesson Italy is currently having nailed into its collective political brain is quite simple. If you don’t control the printing presses – its not your currency. (Greece learnt same lesson, and then lesson 2: “you check out any time you like, but you can never leave”.

The Italians can say what the like about raising debt to reflate their debt, but Brussels won’t let them and can threaten dire consequences. Therefore, the Italians have been very Italian about it and promised to keep their debt within proscribed levels.. which they won’t. And they will make sure their banks are kept going.

All of which explains why Pimco is a willing participant in the Great Italian Bank Confidence Trick. The yield on the 5-yr debt is superb, they aren’t expecting any liquidity in the “bond”, they know Italy isn’t going to let Unicredito fail, and they expect Italy to i) continue to back the bank, and ii) if there is a problem with the EU, then standard EU operational procedure will be to fudge a solution where Italy isn’t closed down and can keep supporting Unicredito!

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Russia//USA

Trump decides to cancel his G 20 meeting with Putin.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Trump Cancels G-20 Meeting With Putin

Just minutes after suggesting he was open to the meeting, ahead of being briefed on the details, it appears ‘the details’ were enough to push him over the edge as he has decide to cancel his meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin in Argentina at the G-20 meeting.

A Kremlin aide said on Wednesday that the two leaders would look for ways to break out of a deadlock in relations when they meet for talks that will touch on strategic stability, Syria, Iran and North Korea.

The meeting was thrown into doubt on Tuesday when Trump said he might cancel it after an incident between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend.

And now it is over…

Based on the fact that the ships and sailors have not been returned to Ukraine from Russia, I have decided it would be best for all parties concerned to cancel my previously scheduled meeting…

…in Argentina with President Vladimir Putin. I look forward to a meaningful Summit again as soon as this situation is resolved!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Based on the fact that the ships and sailors have not been returned to Ukraine from Russia, I have decided it would be best for all parties concerned to cancel my previously scheduled meeting….

end

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

CANADA

 

end

7  OIL ISSUES

Oil spikes a little after a report that Russia accepts the need for oil cuts

(courtesy zerohedge)

Oil Spikes After Report Russia Accepts Need For Oil

Cuts

As reported previously, oil prices started the day off sharply lower with WTI and Brent sliding, with the former sliding below $50 for the first time in more than a year amid traders fear OPEC won’t act decisively next week to clear a resurgent surplus in the global crude market.  Despite headlines that both Saudi Arabia and Nigeria were confident about OPEC succeeding in stabilizing prices, on Wednesday Russian President Putin poured cold water on the prospects for a deal. He said that Brent prices around $60 per barrel are “absolutely fine” for his country, suggesting limited motivation to make an output cap deal at December 6’s OPEC meeting. Later in the session, US crude oil inventories jumped more than expected, increasing by 3.6 million barrels. That was the 10th consecutive weekly inventory build, the longest such streak in three years.

However, shortly after 7am ET oil spiked sharply, rising briefly above $51 on a Reuters report that Russia may be willing to relent after all, as it was “becoming increasingly convinced it needs to reduce oil output in tandem with OPEC” but does not want to reduce output “by much” and was still bargaining with Saudi Arabia over the timing and volume of any reduction.

According to the Report, the Russian Energy Ministry held a meeting with the heads of domestic oil producers on Tuesday, ahead of a gathering in Vienna of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies on Dec. 6-7.

“The idea at the meeting was that Russia needs to reduce. The key question is how quickly and by how much,” said one source familiar with the talks between Russian oil firms and the ministry.

The Reuters source added that “most people agreed that we cannot reduce immediately, it needs to be a gradual process like last time.”

As a reminder, back in 2016 Moscow agreed to curb output by 300,000 barrels per day, or one sixth of the overall cut of 1.8 million bpd, but Russian companies took several months to reach that level of reduction.

According to Reuters, if Russia bore the same proportion of such cuts as it did under the existing agreement, its share of the reduction would amount to 166,000 bpd. “It was also said that reducing by one sixth this time is a big ask,” the source said.

A second source briefed on the discussions said: “We need to reduce but would not want to reduce by much.”

Russia and Saudi Arabia are expected to hammer out an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin meets Prince Mohammed in Argentina at this weekend’s G20 summit, which Trump is also to attend. Complicating any decision at next week’s talks is the crisis around the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul last month. Trump has backed Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman despite calls from many U.S. politicians to impose stiff sanctions on Riyadh.

Further complicating matters is that both Saudi Arabia and Russia are now pumping a record amount of oil, with neither side willing to concede market share, although should WTI dip below $50 again it is likely that one or both sides will blink.

END
Natural Gas prices fall to an average price of 25 MTMu and in some place, natural gas is just given away for free and some at a negative price ie. the user receives money for taking the product off the producer’s hands
(courtesy Nick Cunningham/Oil price.com

Natural Gas Prices Fall Below Zero In Texas

Authored by Nick Cunningham via Oilprice.com,

Surging U.S. oil production in the Permian basin has helped crash oil prices. But the Permian is also home to skyrocketing natural gas production, and output is growing so fast that drillers are trying to give it away for free. When they can’t, they just burn it off into the atmosphere.

Unlike in the Marcellus shale, where natural gas is the main target, drilling in the Permian is focused entirely on crude oil. Natural gas is a nice bonus that comes along with the oil. But the drilling frenzy in West Texas and New Mexico has resulted in a glut of this associated natural gas. There is a pipeline bottleneck for crude oil, but there is also a shortage of pipeline space for natural gas.

The glut has become so bad that next-day prices for gas at the Waha hub in the Permian have plunged to a record low, falling to as low as 25 cents per MMBtu. In some instances, producers have actually sold some gas at negative prices. That means that a company is paying someone else to take the gas off of their hands. On Tuesday, the lowest price recorded was -25 cents/MMBtu (to be clear, that is negative 25 cents), according to Natural Gas Intelligence(NGI). It was the second consecutive day that prices were in negative territory.

“That’s right, someone was paid to buy gas in the Permian on Monday,” RBN Energy LLC analyst Jason Ferguson said, referring to NGI’s pricing data.

“While we’d like to tell you this was some sort of transient, one-off event that led to a day of dramatically low gas prices, that isn’t likely the truth of the matter.”

Ferguson went on to add that there is little prospect of a recovery until next year.

“The Permian gas market is flooded with associated gas and won’t see significant new takeaway capacity until the start-up of Kinder Morgan’s Gulf Coast Express pipeline in late 2019,” Ferguson said, according to NGI.

“The problem is here to stay, at least for a few months. Take a deep breath if you trade the Permian gas markets.”

The negative prices are down sharply from the average price this year at $2.16/MMBtu at the Waha hub.

The predicament also stands in sharp contrast to natural gas traded elsewhere. Nymex prices for December delivery are trading around $4.40/MMBtu, up sharply over the past month due to low inventories and cold weather.

Ironically, the inauguration of new oil pipelines is making the gas glut worse. According to RBN, the startup of the expansion of the Sunrise oil pipeline, owned by Plains All American Pipeline LP, added takeaway capacity for oil. That has allowed for more drilling and completions, which has led to more produced gas.

The supply glut has had other effects beyond low prices. Drillers often vent, flare or otherwise leak natural gas during their drilling operations, which has both environmental and fiscal consequences. A report from the Wilderness Society and Taxpayers for Common Sense, finds that between 2009 and 2015 drillers on public lands wasted 462 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas, or enough gas to meet the needs of 6.2 million households for a year. At an average price of $3.65/MMBtu over that time period, the wasted gas adds up to about $1.7 billion.

The federal government under President Obama tried to force drillers to capture this wasted gas. In 2016, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) finalized regulations on venting, flaring and leaks at oil and gas facilities on public lands. However, BLM under Trump has rolled back these standards, relying instead on a patchwork of uneven regulations at the state level.

Some states do better than others on regulation. Colorado, for instance, “set the standard for reducing gas waste when it finalized first-in-the-nation methane capture requirements in 2014. The state has shown that there are easy and cost-effective ways to address methane pollution,” according to the report from the Wilderness Society and Taxpayers for Common Sense.

At the other end of the spectrum is New Mexico. New Mexico has wasted more natural gas than any other state, about 570,000 tons annually, according to the report. The state wastes about $182 to $244 million worth of gas each year, or enough gas to satisfy the needs of every resident in New Mexico each year. It is no surprise that New Mexico has some of the weakest standards on methane emissions, a problem now that BLM is removing the federal standards and leaving regulation up to the states.

Meanwhile, the problem is only getting worse with soaring production in the Permian. The rate of flaring in New Mexico climbed by 2,244 percent between 2009 and 2013.

Negative prices for natural gas offers very little incentive for drillers to capture that methane.

end

Gas prices slide to its lowest level on huge shale production

(courtesy zerohedge)

Gas Prices Slide To Lowest Since March As Shale Production Soars

After months of rising prices at the pump, the American consumer is finally starting to feel some relief thanks to the drop in oil prices, which have fallen by one-third since October (with the US benchmark for crude prices briefly dipping below $50 a barrel this week before reports that Russia had accepted the need for production cuts helped pushed crude futures higher on Thursday).

Not long after prices climbed above $4 a gallon at some gas stations in California, the national average gas price has fallen for seven straight weeks to $2.53 a gallon, its lowest level since March.

And Bloomberg is reporting that at least one gas station in 20 states is selling sub-$2 gas. The cheapest gas in the country can be found at Buc-ee’s station in Denton, Texas, where one gallon costs just $1.69, according to GasBuddy.

Gas

Global oil prices have plunged as US waivers have allowed Iran to continue exporting oil, removing exaggerated anxieties about a possible supply crunch. Meanwhile, climbing output in the Texas oil patch, as well as accelerating production in Saudi Arabia and Russia, has raised fears about a glut.

Shale

Lower prices could save Americans $125 million a day compared with what was being paid in early October, according to one analyst quoted by Bloomberg, a phenomenon that Trump has said would have the same stimulative impact as another tax cut.

But the upshot of the drop in prices is that by badgering OPEC to cut production and leveraging the Khashoggi scandal to pressure its de facto leader, Trump has succeeded in bringing home a win for the American people (if not so much for shale producers).

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

You just can’t win with the Fake News Media. A big story today is that because I have pushed so hard and gotten Gasoline Prices so low, more people are driving and I have caused traffic jams throughout our Great Nation. Sorry everyone!

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

 

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1374 UP .0006 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 113.28  DOWN 0.280 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2782 DOWN   0.0040  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3287  UP .00009 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 6 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1328/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 34.29 POINTS OR 1.32%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 224.53 POINTS OR 0.87% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.64% /EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED  UP 85.38 POINTS OR 0.39%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 231.53 POINTS OR 0.87% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 34.29  POINTS OR 1.32%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP  0.64%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 85.38 POINTS OR 0.39%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1226.10

silver:$14.34

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.02% !!! DOWN 4 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.31 DOWN 4  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 96.82 UP 4  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.83% DOWN 4    in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.08%  DOWN 2  BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.51% DOWN 3  IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.20 DOWN 6   POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 169 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.32%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.92% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1379 UP .0012 or 12 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 113.43 DOWN  0 .130 OR 13 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2782 DOWN .0040( POUND DOWN 40 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 3 basis points to 1.3280

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.9425-  ON SHORE  (YUAN UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9339(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.1597

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.08%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 5 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.03 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.32 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.78 UP 1 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 34.43 POINTS OR 0.49%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 0.65 POINTS  OR 0.01%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 23.01 POINTS OR 0.46%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 3.80 POINTS OR 0.04%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP: 44.44 POINTS OR 0.23%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 51.68 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 59.76 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    66.22  THE CROSS LOWER BY .85 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER by 85 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.1597 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.32 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :51.41

 

BRENT:59.37

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.03%..

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.33%/.

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1389 ( UP 22 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:113.44 DOWN .121 (YEN UP 12 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.80 UP 1 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2784 DOWN 38 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.1661

the Russian rouble:  66.22 UP .86 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 86 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3284 DOWN 7 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9425  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9349 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.32%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN 27.59 POINTS OR 0.11%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 18.51  points or 0.25% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  18.79 CLOSED UP  0.30

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.738%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Trade ‘Hopes’ & Fed ‘Nopes’ Send Stocks, Bonds, & Black Gold To Critical Levels

The last 24 hours or so have been headline-heavy for traders as every “Trade”, “Trump”, “G20”, or “Fed” note sparks chaos across a now uncorrelated markets that are hypersensitive – but critical levels were obvious targets today:

  • Dow/S&P at critical technical levels (key moving averages and YTD levels)
  • 10Y Treasury Yield below 3.00% intraday
  • WTI Crude below $50 intraday

For now the moves are not life-threatening…

But the gap risk into this weekend’s tape-bomb turmoil has prompted short-term VIX to be bid despite surging stocks…

 

Overnight was ugly in China (despite US exuberance)…

 

European Stocks continued to go nowhere after their opening gap on Monday…

 

Overnight saw weakness in US futures too – and crappy data and a cash market open along with China trade hope headlines prompted a quick panic buy, a fade on Navarro news, a big pump after Fed Minutes, then a fade into the close…

 

Trannies underperformed on the cash side but all the major faded into the close after pumping green post-Fed Minutes…but they all ended red with a notably ugly close…

 

But, notably, in the US, Stocks were the only asset-class to move post-Fed Minutes as Gold, Stocks, and Bonds all went nowhere…

Before giving it all back into the close…

 

Dow broke above its 50/100/200 DMAs…then faded back below…

 

S&P stalled at its 50/200DMA…

 

Treasury yields tumbled overnight (after going nowhere amid yesterday’s surge in stocks), then v-shape-recovered higher (ending the day lower in yield though)…

 

10Y broke below 3.00% (for the first time since Sept 18th)…

 

Before Treasury selling surged…

 

Expectations for Fed actions next year have collapsed to less than one rate hike…

 

The Dollar Index went nowhere on the day, oscillating around yesterday’s Powell plunge lows…

 

As the dollar trod water, so did offshore yuan hovering around its PBOC fix…

 

Cryptos faded broadly but Bitcoin managed to get back into the green for the week briefly…

 

Vol remains insane in the crude complex…

 

WTI Crude tumbled back below $50 for the first time since October 2017… then was panic bid by the machines up to the $52 stops… then faded…

 

Finally, it looks like The Fed broke it…

And you know what they say – you break it, you buy it – so next comes QE?

 

 

market trading

The boys juice the markets on a report that both China and the uSA are exploring ways to make a deal to ease tensions

(courtesy Wall Street Journal/zerohedge)

Stocks Rebound On WSJ Report China, US “Exploring Deal” To Ease Tensions

While it should hardly come as a surprise that just two days ahead of a meeting between the US and China seeking to resolve and defuse trade tensions, the two sides are, well, seeking to resolve and defuse trade tensions (and boost markets) and are “exploring a trade deal in which Washington would suspend further tariffs through the spring in exchange for new talks looking at big changes in Chinese economic policy“, which is what the WSJ reported moments ago and what the market is responding to, providing a modest bid to stocks following the earlier G-20 negative news that Peter Navarro is back on the Trump-Xi dinner list.

As the WSJ notes, “the talks have been conducted, via telephone, for several weeks, and are coming to a head shortly before President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet for dinner on Saturday at the end of the Group of 20 leaders’ summit in Buenos Aires.”

New talks would focus on what both sides are calling trade “architecture,” a broad term that could encompass many issues the U.S. has wanted Beijing to address, including intellectual property protection, coerced technology transfer, subsidies to state-owned enterprises, and even non-trade issues such as cyber-espionage.

But, as the WSJ cautions, “it is far from clear whether the discussions will produce any agreement.”

Furthermore, it isn’t clear what specifics the U.S. is asking for or what Beijing is willing to entertain. One offer, according to Chinese officials: in return for the suspension of U.S. tariffs, Beijing would agree to lift restrictions on China’s purchases of U.S. farm and energy products.

Such a deal would follow the model of partial agreements the U.S. has cut in recent months with the European Union and Japan, U.S. officials said. In those deals, the U.S. agreed not to levy more tariffs—in those cases, tariffs on automobiles—while the two sides negotiated over specific areas. With Japan, for example, Tokyo agreed that any deal would increase automobile production and jobs in the U.S, while Washington agreed not to press Tokyo for more concessions on agriculture than Japan had previously allowed free-trade partners.

As Nomura’s McElligott notes, in the context of the Cohen headlines, Trump may be more eager to getting a favorable, actionable outcome than the “we had a great meeting” or “agreement to work on a framework” conclusion. On the other hand, some have noted that a tariff pause means little for yuan currency control as the PBOC is already doing that with yuan at 7.00.

Furthermore, there has been “chatter” that the meeting went from a 90 min 1-on-1 and was “downgraded” to a 60 min working dinner.

Still, the algo kneejerk reaction was prompt, and after hitting session lows earlier on the Navarro news, the S&P has since rebounded and has cut its losses in half… at least until the next negative headline or FOMC minutes.

 

market data/

Good data today for the USA. Both Income and spending data surges in October but also inflation

(courtesy zerohedge)

Americans’ Income & Spending Data Surges In October As Inflation Slows

After slowing in September, Americans’ personal income and spending data was expected to re-accelerate in October and they did dramatically, rising 0.5% and 0.6% MoM respectively.

This is the biggest monthly spike in 2018…

On a year over year basis, both income and spending re-accelerated, rising 4.3% and 5.0% respectively…

 

With spending continuing toi outpace income, personal savings data (revised historically) fell to 6.2% in October, lowest since Dec 2017…

Ironically, as the income and spending data jumped, The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – Core PCE – slowed notably to +1.8% YoY…

So take your pick – Dovish Fed signals from Core PCE or hawkish Fed signals from income/spending/savings data?

end
Seems that the jobless numbers turned on a dime:  they soared to 8 month highs..as something is seriously wrong in the USA economy.
(zerohedge)

Jobless Claims Soar To 8-Month Highs

Initial jobless claims are up almost 10% in the last three months, spiking to 234k last week – the highest since March 2018.

 

While the levels are still extremely low (and well below the Maginot Line of 300k), the reversal in trend appears to be more than a ‘storm’ or technical shift.

And while some have blamed one-time factors, such as the Cali wildfires and the Thanksgiving holiday for the surprising jump, the number comes just weeks after the BLS reported the biggest drop in job openings in 2018.

Is the labor market the next one to peak as the US economy slows?

end

Housing is a major component of GDP.  Today the second leg on the housing report shows pending home sales plunging.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Pending Home Sales Plunge To Weakest Since 2014

Hope was high for a rebound (after new-home-sales slumped), but that was dashed as pending home sales plunged 2.6% MoM in October (well below the expected 0.5% MoM bounce).

Additionally, Pending Home Sales fell 4.6% YoY – the 10th consecutive month of annual declines…

 

This is the weakest pending home sales since June 2014…

As Bloomberg notes, the results underscore the challenges as elevated prices and rising mortgage rates are keeping more Americans on the sidelines of the housing market. Economists consider pending-home sales a leading indicator because they track contract signings; purchases of existing homes are tabulated when a deal closes, typically a month or two later.

The recent rise in mortgage rates has “reduced the pool of eligible homebuyers,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.

While the job market looks strong, making long-term prospects look solid, “we just have to get through this short-term period of uncertainty.”

Pending sales fell in three of four regions, led by a an 8.9 percent slump in the West as the Midwest and South also declined. Signings in the Northeast rose 0.7 percent.

Finally, and most problematically, economists consider pending-home sales a leading indicator because they track contract signings; purchases of existing homes are tabulated when a deal closes, typically a month or two later.

end

The libor 3 month rate has been rising steadily for months.  Today is surged a monstrous 3 full points to 2.738.  As we have pointed out to you on several occasions this kills the dollar funding operations in the emerging markets and in China.  The big question now is: who will be buying the huge 1.8 trillion USA debt.

(courtesy zerohedge)

What Easing: Libor Surges Most In 8 Months, Squeezing $200 Trillion In Credit

While stocks, and with a notable delay bonds, were happy to run with Powell’s dovish reversal on Wednesday, one key market – arguably the most important one for financial conditions when it comes to the broader economy – has refused to respond.

Earlier today, instead of reacting to what has been interpreted as the Fed Chair’s “dovish repricing” of future rate hike expectations, 3 month USD Libor jumped over 3 basis points to 2.73813%, the highest level in more than ten years.

This was biggest daily jump in 3M Libor since March, and the second highest Libor increase of 2018.

As a result, dollar funding conditions as measured by Libor-OIS have also tightened notably, as the spread widened to 36bp from 33.8bp prior session, and is once again approaching the levels seen during the spike earlier this year.

The reason why rising Libor remains a major risk to financial conditions, is because as the table below shows, its footprint can be found everywhere, from OTC interest rate swaps, to leveraged loans – considered by many as the locus of the next credit crisis – to retail mortgages, to complex securitizations. According to the TBAC, just about $200 trillion in instruments are exposed to Libor’s interest rate footprint.

Most affected by this ongoing rise may be the bond market, which has also been hit with the double whammy of tumbling oil, which earlier today dipped below $50/barrel, a price widely seen as a “red-line” for junk bond investors, below which some may sell their exposure indiscriminately. And since energy is one of the largest components of the junk bond index, it is only a matter of time before contagion spread from oil, through highly leveraged energy producers to the rest of the market.

In any case, the ongoing rise in Libor which absent a reversal soon will result in even tighter financial conditions and higher interest expense on trillions in floating rate debt, Bloomberg’s Alex Harris notes that those traders who took the “dovish” Powell at his word, and pared Fed 2019 rate-hike bets to just barely one “may be getting way ahead of themselves.” The reason: “apart from inflationary pressures and a strong jobs market, the need for extra policy firepower is another compelling reason for the U.S. central bank to stay the course. As such, expect the Dec 18-19 Eurodollar spread to fade some of the overnight narrowing that has taken it to a 10-month low.

As Harris notes, the key event here was the central bankers’ meeting at Sintra over the summer where Powell acknowledged that central banks would have less ammunition to fight the next downturn with rates still so close to zero.

So will 2.5%-2.75% be enough of a springboard from which to cut rates during the next downturn? The market seems to think so; whether Powell agrees will be revealed in the Fed’s next projection materials in December where unless the “dots” are slashed, the market will be in for a very painful hangover going into the holiday week.

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

The pitiful shake of the USA social security.  They state that they will run out of money by 2034.  It will be probably much earlier

(courtesy SovereignMan.com)

Three More Strikes Against Social Security’s Already-

Dismal Batting-Average

Via SovereignMan.com,

This doesn’t make front page news… But it should.

Every year, cost of living adjustments increase Social Security benefits.

Over the past decade, payouts have increased by an average of 1.66% per year, according to the Social Security Administration (SSA).

But for 2019, the increase will be 2.8% to keep pace with inflation.

Seems like a trivial difference until you realize that’s 69% higher than expected.

That amounts to about $39 extra per check for the average retiree, according to the SSA.

And with about 62 million Americans receiving Social Security, that’s an extra $2.4 billion per month… $29 billion per year.

Social Security is underfunded by $50 TRILLION. By the government’s own estimates, the Social Security fund will run out of money in 2034.

But those calculations used previous cost of living adjustments.

Keep in mind that all future cost of living adjustments will compound on top of 2019’s increase.

So even if they get back to the 1.66% average adjustments, the extra $29 billion is included in the base for future calculations.

Will Social Security really last until 2034?

Last year, they said it would last until 2035… Wrong. One year passed and insolvency came two years closer…

Before that, the Social Security Administration estimated that the funds would last until 2040… wrong again!

After Congress passed some Social Security reforms in 1983, the SSA expected the system to remain financially sound for 75 years, until 2058.

Say it with me… they were wrong.

The goal posts keep moving.

That’s strike one…

In 2006, the SSA expected the US birthrate—the number of babies each woman is expected to have in her lifetime—to be 2.01 by 2020.

Well guess what… they were WRONG. Take a sip if your playing along at home to the Social-Security-Administration-is-wrong drinking game.

The 2017 birthrate already fell to 1.8, the lowest in decades.

So just when Social Security is expected to run out of money, the fewest number of workers in decades will be entering the workforce.

Social Security depends on a ratio of 3 workers to support each retiree.

Today, there are only 2.8 workers paying into Social Security for every beneficiary collecting.

The Social Security Administration estimates that this will fall to 2 workers per retiree by 2030… surely this time their estimate is accurate…

That’s strike two.

And the economy is currently about as good as it gets.

October unemployment was 3.7% according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It hasn’t been this low since 1969…

There are record numbers of people in the workforce… paying into Social Security.

Yet Social Security still looks dismal, during the best economic times in decades.

What happens when a recession hits?

Or forget a recession, what happens at normal unemployment levels?

And that’s the third strike.

The Social Security Administration has been wrong on just about every projection and estimate it has made.

I’m not trying to be alarmist, but it is rather shocking that people shrug off the reality.

This data isn’t coming from me, it isn’t some wild conspiracy theory. It’s the most optimistic outlook from the Board of Trustees for Social Security.

Unfortunately, many people will do absolutely nothing with this information. It’s easier to just Instagram your way to retirement.

And these people will have their lives turned upside down—benefits cut, retirement age increased, pushed out of the system… Something has to give.

But when you see it coming, there is so much you can do.

You can take legal steps to reduce your taxes, and funnel the savings into your retirement.

Putting away an extra $1,000 per year can result in a difference of more than $100,000 when compounded over 30 years.

Or, you could establish certain self-directed IRA structures or a solo 401(k).

These dramatically increase your contribution limits and vastly expand your investment options–real estate, cryptocurrency, private equity, etc.

Or, learn how to be a better investor…

Saving an extra $2,000 per year and generating, on average, 2% more per year (i.e. 10% versus 8%), will make you an additional $610,000 over 30-years.

Just don’t let the government plan for you. They’ll give you great estimates… and as always, they will be wrong.

end
Brandon Smith is one smart cookie:  He basically is stating that the Trump/Fed will orchestrate a market crash and that will help our banking elites to pick up assets at pennies on the dollar
(courtesy Brandon Smith/Alt-Market.com)

Don’t Get Distracted By The Trump/Fed Soap Opera – The Crash Will Continue

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

At the beginning of 2018 I wrote extensively on what was likely to happen under the administration of Jerome Powell, the new Federal Reserve Chairman. In my article ‘New Fed Chairman Will Trigger A Historic Stock Market Crash In 2018‘, published in February, I predicted that the Fed would continue interest rate increases and balance sheet cuts throughout the year and they would knowingly initiate a crash in equities.

To be clear, this was not a very popular sentiment at the time, just as it wasn’t popular when I predicted in 2015 that the Fed would launch interest rate hikes instead of going to negative rates in order to start a catalyst for economic crisis.The problem some people have with this concept is that they just can’t fathom that the central bank would deliberately crash the system. They desperately cling to the notion that the Fed and other central banks want to keep the machine rolling forward at any cost. This is simply not true.

The claim is that the banking elites are “required” to keep the system propped up in a state of reanimation because they are reliant on the system to provide capital and thus “influence.”The people that assert this argument don’t seem to understand how central banks operate.

As most liberty activists should know by now, central banks are essentially a legally protected counterfeiting scheme. Using fractional reserve banking at a ratio that is secret, central banks create their own capital from thin air, and they can infuse capital into international banks at will when it suits their purposes. There is no “profit motive” for the banking syndicate. They can print the cash or digitally conjure it anytime they wish, and they can use it to purchase tangible assets before their printing diminishes the buying power of the currency, passing price inflation on to regular citizens.

Thus, keeping the system in perpetual positive motion is not necessary in terms of the transfer of wealth from the population to the banking class. In fact, economic crisis events are very useful to the elites because these events allow the banks to buy up concrete assets like natural resources, businesses and properties for pennies on the dollar.

For example, this is exactly what they did during the Great Depression when major banks like JP Morgan bought out thousands of failing local banks across the U.S. and took control of mortgages and other assets being paid off by a vast portion of the American citizenry. The banking system never looked the same again, and international banks continue to dominate ever since as localized competition remains elusive.

This also occurred after the crash of 2008 when companies like Blackstone bought up billions in distressed mortgages for well below previous market value, taking control of the property market and turning bankruptcies into rentals.

The 2008 crash was an asset buying bonanza for banks and corporation bailed out by the Federal Reserve. Low interest rates provided endless cheap credit through which companies could buy anything and everything. Of course, they mostly bought their own equities through stock buybacks, artificially inflating the stock market to the point of absurdity while taking on historic levels of debt — but we’ll get to that in just a moment.

The point is, there is every reason for central banks and their international corporate banking partners in crime to want a controlled demolition of the economic system. As long as they always control the dominant currency mechanism and the means of wealth distribution, they can use fiscal disasters to buy up hard assets for almost nothing.

The profit motive argument against deliberately triggered market declines has no legs when we consider this reality. But there is another reason far beyond the issue of asset accumulation; namely the psychological effects these events have on the masses.

Economic panic is a very useful tool in the hands of the banking establishment for molding social conditions in a way that gives them greater psychological power over the public. In every instance of financial catastrophe it is the banker cabal that is asked to step in and save the day. In 2008 it was the Federal Reserve that was tapped to act as a hero to the mainstream, and only through the tireless efforts of alternative economists and liberty activists has this fallacy been exposed to some in the population.

In the next crisis, it will be the IMF that is used as the front organization for the next rescue as market collapse leads into a crisis in confidence in the U.S. dollar. I outlined the plan for this in my recent article ‘IMF Reveals That Cryptocurrency Is The New World Order End Game.’

The average person is completely unaware of the Hegelian con-game being played here. And, when banking institutions step in as the designated “caregivers” to the ailing economy, what we sometimes see is a kind of reverse “Florence Nightingale effect”, in which the patients fall in love with the nurse merely because they have associated the extension of economic function to an extension of their lives (or at least, an extension of comfort in their lives).

The next engineered crash is shaping up to become the most epic in history, and make no mistake, it has already started.

Even now mindless optimism and blind faith in the markets continues, and the assumption on the part of the investment world is that the banks will eventually be forced to admit their “policy error” on tightening and that they will revert back to lower rates or even more QE. This is not going to happen.

An example of the Fed reversal fantasy was the reaction to Jerome Powell’s recent speech in light of “criticism” by the Trump Administration.  Powell’s statement included a throwaway line indicating that the Fed rate was “just below” the neutral rate, which investors and algo trading computers immediately interpreted as a “dovish” pull back from a previous statement in which Powell said they were a “long way” from the neutral rate.  Stocks spiked on the “shift” in speech patterns.

Yes, investment markets really are that desperate for a sign that the Fed will keep the party going.  But let’s look at reality.

Powell is simply repeating a fact, not changing Fed policy on rate hikes – the Fed funds rate is 2.19% technically just below what the Fed considers the “neutral rate” of inflation; around 2.5% to 3%.  The assumption markets are making is that the Fed will not hike BEYOND the neutral rate of inflation.  This is a naive assumption.  At no point did Powell indicate the Fed would stop rate hikes.  In fact, Powell dared to reiterate his assertions that the US economy is healthy and well into “recovery”.  This is not the statement of an institution that is about to stray from its current path.

I would also point out that all this focus on interest rates might be a distraction from the Fed balance sheet cuts.  I cannot recall if Trump ever complained about this issue, but asset cuts are a primary key to the decline in stock markets, perhaps more so than interest rates.

Hopium sellers have been peddling several scenarios lately in which the current downtrend in markets will stop and the bull rally party rekindled. The three most pervasive are…

Scenario #1: The Fed suddenly skips rate hikes in the near term under pressure from markets and the White House.

Scenario #2: The Fed fully admits to policy error in light of stock market declines and re-launches QE.

Scenario #3: Trump announces successful trade war negotiations, primarily with China, and ends tariff measures.

As I have noted many times in the past year, Jerome Powell admitted in the minutes of the October 2012 Fed meeting that tightening measures in the face of extreme market addiction to stimulus would inevitably cause a crisis event. The Fed had created a monster of a bubble, and a monster in the investment world, and they knew they were doing it. With corporate and consumer debt levels at historic highs, any interest rate increases, no matter how seemingly marginal, will kill stock buybacks, cause corporate cutbacks and derail consumer spending.

Fed asset cuts will also offset stock buybacks over time and drag markets lower.  If the suspicions of alternative economists are correct, then the Fed has been holding a massive short volatility position for years.  Powell seems to confirm this kind of market manipulation in his statements in the Fed minutes of October 2012.  If they continue to unwind this position as they dump their balance sheet, stocks will crash regardless of interest rates.

Today, Jerome Powell is taking the exact actions in policy that he originally admitted would cause a crash. Powell is not tightening out of stupidity, nor is he tightening out of a misguided error in policy. Powell is tightening because the banking elites WANT a crash. Period.

Because of this, it is highly unlikely that the Fed will stop tightening measures, let alone reverse them. The Fed does not care about “pressure” from markets, or pressure from the White House which I believe is part of a farcical Kabuki theater. The Fed will continue hiking up to the neutral rate of inflation, and probably well beyond that into 2019. This is exactly what they did during the Great Depression to escalate the crisis, and it is exactly what they will do today.

Trump’s trade war rhetoric and false media headlines are now the only levers that can be pulled to stall the market landslide. But it appears that this stalling is meant to make the crash more manageable, not stop it from happening.  With Trump’s cabinet loaded with globalists, it is foolish to believe the current trend will end any other way.

Trump will jawbone markets up at times, but overall there will be no progression in negotiations. The latest Powell statement is most likely designed to help mitigate the downturn that will occur when the Trump Administration announces “no progress” with China after the impending G20 conference.  The trade war will eventually escalate to include threats to U.S. bond markets and the dollar itself.

Trump’s policies match almost exactly with the model followed by Herbert Hoover preceding the crash of 1929 and the Great Depression. His trade war is a perfect distraction for the masses as central banks, the real culprits behind the crisis, pull the plug on life support for the economy. We will at times hear rumors of new ground gained with China and other nations, and these rumors will continue to be dispelled days later as they have been for the past year.

The battle between Trump and the Fed is purely a soap opera designed to lure conservatives into the Neo-con fold as they are told that Trump is a mere victim of Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes.  The rest of the world is being told that Trump is a gigantic baby, throwing a tantrum over a collapsing stock market bubble that he originally took credit for.  They will be told that it is Trump’s tariffs and populism that are destabilizing the economy, not the Fed’s tightening into economic weakness.

The truth is, BOTH Trump and the Fed are working in tandem while playing a game of pretend-fighting that Trump knows well from his days in the WWE (World Wrestling Entertainment) and reality TV.

The establishment wants the system to break down, but at a speed that is manageable for them and psychologically disarming for us.

The optimistic claim that what we are seeing in equities is nothing more than a “correction” is a fallacy that misrepresents the reality of conditions on the ground. It is based on assumptions that the Fed will stop tightening measures and that the trade war will end abruptly and favorably. It is also based on severe cognitive dissonance — the optimism of drug addicts, their veins filled with years of QE heroin. The truth is that the drug binge is over.

The banking elites are done with that phase of the collapse, and they are moving onto the next phase. It is clear in their actions, it is clear in their public admissions, and it is clear in the downward spiral of the economy at large. What we are seeing is not a “correction,” it’s a crash. It is time for people to accept this fact and prepare accordingly if they have not already.

*  *  *

If you would like to support the publishing of articles like the one you have just read, visit our donations page here.  We greatly appreciate your patronage.

end
Nick Colas believes that the Powell speech was orchestrated to deflect on the upcoming trade defeat at the hands of the Chinese.  May be true..
However it is far more important to concentrate on the Brandon Smith article.
(courtesy zerohedge/Nick Colas)

Why Powell’s Speech Today Was “A Stroke Of Genius”

Submitted by Nicholas Colas of DataTrek

A Man for All Seasons

To our thinking, Chair Powell’s speech today was a stroke of genius. By easing the Fed’s public stance on rates, he puts all the responsibility for near term market direction on President Trump’s shoulders as he prepares to meet Chinese President Xi at the G20. US equities are barely up on the year, so what happens in Buenos Aires will determine if stocks post a positive 2018.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell really is a “Markets guy” after all, as today’s speech at the The Economic Club of New York showed. After saying interest rates were “far from neutral” on October 3rd, he didn’t make the crowd wait long today for his revised assessment. Powell’s new take, which appears in the 2nd paragraph of his talk: rates “remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy.”

We’ve been repeatedly pointing you to Fed Funds Futures as a forward-looking indicator for US central bank policy, and that market has been pricing in Powell’s speech as if it had an advanced copy a month ago. After October’s stock market swoon, Futures only gave the Fed a 17% chance of getting to a +3% funds rate, for example. Two-year Treasury yields – our other favored indicator – told a similar story, peaking on November 8th.

Since Fed Fund Futures had this event nailed, even if US stocks did not, let’s see what they say now with the benefit of a few hours to digest Powell’s talk:

  • The odds that the Fed moves in December by 25 basis points are now 83%, up from 79% yesterday.
  • Odds that the Fed stands pat or even cuts rates back to current levels at the March 2019 FOMC meeting are now better than 50/50, at 58/42. Yesterday they were about the same, at 55/45.
  • Futures give the edge to seeing just one 25bp rate increase during all of 2019 (assuming the December 2018 bump), with 38% odds. Chances that the central bank raises rates twice or more in 2019 are now just 33%, down from 37% yesterday.

Hard-nosed numbers aside, the real genius of Chair Powell’s speech today is that it takes Fed policy out of the near term market narrative and shifts investors’ focus to President Trump’s end-of-week G20 meeting with Chinese President Xi. Here’s how this calculus works:

  • US equities rallied strongly today because Powell’s comments effectively acknowledge the market’s concerns of a slowing global economy, driven in large part by the effect of US trade policy.
  • All major US equity indices are up slightly on the year, or at least flat. The Dow: +2.6%. S&P 500: +2.6%. Russell 2000: -0.3%, but up 1% with dividends.
  • The Trump/Xi G20 meeting on Friday is now the make-or-break event that will determine if US stocks print a positive or negative 2018. There simply are no other near-term catalysts that equal the importance of this event.

Squint only slightly through Machiavellian eyes, and Powell’s rate retreat looks very much like a calculated effort to pressure President Trump to make real progress at the G20. Chair Powell left himself enough wiggle room to change his stance in 2019. Mr. Trump does not have the luxury of time if he wants to see US stocks end the year on a high note. And Mr. Trump’s affinity for using the US stock market as a barometer for his professional success as President is well known…

Summing up: our Sunday note highlighted that US stocks sit on a fulcrum with “Hope” of a change in Fed/trade policy the only counterbalances to the heavyweight concerns of a slowing global economy. Chair Powell delivered on one of those hopes today. It will be up to President Trump to find a way to do the same later this week. Given today’s events, he does not really have a choice.

end
A terrific and short commentary from Graham Summers as he correctly laid out what happened yesterday and it is very bad.  The market reacted by going up 600 points but the USA dollar hardly moved and the 10 yr bond also hardly budged.  The dollar should have been hit by 1.5% and the 10 yr bond rate should have plummeted.  It did not as the global picture is in trouble financially.
(courtesy Graham Summers)

Yesterday’s Fed Decision Wasn’t Good… No, It Was Very, VERY Bad

Yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell did a complete 180 on the Fed’s hawkishness. For 11 months straight Powell had maintained that the economy was booming and that the Fed would be hiking rates until the end of 2019.

Powell did this despite:

1)   The entire Emerging Market space blowing up with many emerging stock markets crashing over 30%.

2)   The clear evidence that Fed policy was destroying global growth with Copper and other economically sensitive bellwethers collapsing into bear markets.

3)   The clear evidence that corporate profit margins peaked in 2Q18 and the business cycle was turning down in the US.

None of the above mattered to the Powell Red. Time and again Chair Powell ignored these issues during press conferences, speeches, and during Q&A sessions. Which is why his sudden decision to change course is not a good thing… in fact it’s very VERY bad.

Why?

Because this signals that something truly horrific is brewing in the financial system.

Think of it this way, if you’re willing to stomach most of the stock markets in the world entering bear markets… and economic bellwethers CRASHING… just how awful does something have to be for you to stop on a dime and hit the “panic” button?

Think CRISIS bad.

If you don’t believe me, consider that the $USD barely dipped on Powell’s announcement yesterday. Heck, the greenback didn’t even drop 1%. The BIG drop the media ranted about is that tiny red square in the chart below.

If the Fed’s decision to drop its hawkishness was a good thing, the $USD would have collapsed 1.5% or more. The fact it barely even fell 0.5% tell us that the financial system realizes something BAD is afoot.

As if this wasn’t enough, Treasury yields didn’t even budge yesterday. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury finished the day flat.

If the Fed announcement yesterday was a great thing, yields should have erupted higher yesterday as a signal that growth and inflation/ reflation were igniting. They didn’t.

So we’ve got both the currency markets and the bond markets telling us that something bad is happening. Between this and the fact that Jerome Powell had to hit the “panic” button on the Fed’s monetary policy, I fully expect stocks to crash within the next 60 days.

SWAMP STORIES

This will not be good for Michael Avenatti as we went rogue and sued Trump against her wishes

(courtesy zero hedge)

Stormy Daniels Says Michael Avenatti Went Rogue,

Sued Trump Against Her Wishes

Two weeks after his arrest for allegedly abusing his girlfriend, Stormy Daniels says that Michael Avenatti sued Donald Trump against her wishes, according to a statement she gave to the Daily Beast on Wednesday.

Avenatti also launched a now-deletedlegal defense fundraising site without her consent.

Daniels is now unsure if she will keep Avenatti on as her lawyer.

Here is her full statement, provided to The Daily Beast – with Avenatti’s response below:

“For months I’ve asked Michael Avenatti to give me accounting information about the fund my supporters so generously donated to for my safety and legal defense. He has repeatedly ignored those requests. Days ago I demanded again, repeatedly, that he tell me how the money was being spent and how much was left. Instead of answering me, without my permission or even my knowledge Michael launched another crowdfunding campaign to raise money on my behalf. I learned about it on Twitter.

“I haven’t decided yet what to do about legal representation moving forward. Michael has been a great advocate in many ways. I’m tremendously grateful to him for aggressively representing me in my fight to regain my voice. But in other ways Michael has not treated me with the respect and deference an attorney should show to a client. He has spoken on my behalf without my approval. He filed a defamation case against Donald Trump against my wishes. He repeatedly refused to tell me how my legal defense fund was being spent. Now he has launched a new crowdfunding campaign using my face and name without my permission and attributing words to me that I never wrote or said. I’m deeply grateful to my supporters and they deserve to know their money is being spent responsibly. I don’t want to hurt Michael, but it’s time to set the record straight. The truth has always been my greatest ally.

“My goal is the same as it has always been—to stand up for myself and take back my voice after being bullied and intimidated by President Trump and his minions. One way or another I’m going to continue in that fight, and I want everyone who has stood by me to know how profoundly grateful I am for their support.”

Avenatti hit back, telling the Beast that he has “always been Stormy’s biggest champion,” and that he’s “sacrificed an enormous amount of money, time and energy toward assisting her.”

He also became a household name, so let’s not pretend Avenatti did this out of the milk of human kindness.

His full statement reads:

“I am and have always been Stormy’s biggest champion. I have personally sacrificed an enormous amount of money, time and energy toward assisting her because I believe in her. I have always been an open book with Stormy as to all aspects of her cases and she knows that. The retention agreement Stormy signed back in February provided that she would pay me $100.00 and that any and all other monies raised via a legal fund would go toward my legal fees and costs. Instead, the vast majority of the money raised has gone toward her security expenses and similar other expenses. The most recent campaign was simply a refresh of the prior campaign, designed to help defray some of Stormy’s expenses.”

According to NYU Law Professor Stephen Gillers, Avenatti could be in deep trouble if he sued Trump without consent. 

“If he filed the case with her name when it was clear that she told him not to, then he could be sued for that,” said Gillers, adding: “He could be sued for malpractice. If true, she has a malpractice case against him. I emphasize if true. And if true, he would be subject to discipline but not as serious as disbarment.”

Avenatti claims that he hasn’t “received a dime in attorneys’ fees” from the crowdfunding efforts – one of which raised over $580,000 for Daniels’ legal defense. He also claims that his firm has spent “well over a thousand hours of attorney time on the case at a value of over $1,500,000 (and no, we do not count interviews or media as attorney time).”

As the Beast notes, Avenatti’s legal work for Daniels hasn’t been the greatest.

In the April defamation lawsuit against the president, Avenatti argued Trump hurt her by tweeting that she participated in a “total con job.” But in November, a judge dismissed the suit and ordered Daniels to pay the president’s legal bills. Trump’s lawyers asked for almost $350,000 in legal fees; Daniels is now fighting to try to lower that bill. –Daily Beast

Daniels made national news when she and Avenatti stepped into the national spotlight with a claim that President Trump’s former attorney, Michael Cohen, paid her $130,000 to keep quiet about a decade-old affair – a claim Trump denies. Cohen has admitted making the illegal payments at Trump’s direction and has pleaded guilty to eight criminal counts.

Avenatti, meanwhile, was a rising star in the #MeToo movement until his arrest two weeks ago for allegedly roughing up his girlfriend.

his White House dreams have faced major challenges; earlier this month, he was arrested under suspicion of domestic violence—allegations he roundly denies. And when he represented migrant children whom the Trump administration separated from their parents earlier this year, long-time immigration lawyers told The Observerhe was “fantastically irresponsible.” –Daily Beast

Lastly – according to court records, Avenatti and his companies owe millions in unpaid taxes to the IRS and from other judgements.

It seems as though the tough talking attorney’s 15 minutes may finally be up.

END

Trump blasts Mueller as his “investigation” is in search of a crime!

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Blasts Mueller Probe As “An Investigation In

Search Of A Crime”

Senate Republicans have offered President Trump a degree of relief from his Mueller-related anxieties by blocking a bill that would have protected the Mueller probe from being disbanded by the president, but with the special counsel continuing his pursuit of Roger Stone and Jerome Corsi, and Congressional Democrats sharpening their knives in anticipation of taking back the House in January, President Trump is once again lashing out at Mueller and the FBI, declaring that the probe is an “investigation in search of a crime” and once again highlighting the hypocrisy in the FBI’s decision to give the Clintons a pass for their “atrocious, and perhaps subversive” crimes.

Reiterating his claims that the Mueller probe bears many similarities to Sen. Joseph McCarthy’s infamous anti-Communist witch hunt, Trump also blasted the DOJ for “shattering so many innocent lives” and “wasting more than $40,000,000.”

“Did you ever see an investigation more in search of a crime? At the same time Mueller and the Angry Democrats aren’t even looking at the atrocious, and perhaps subversive, crimes that were committed by Crooked Hillary Clinton and the Democrats. A total disgrace!”

“When will this illegal Joseph McCarthy style Witch Hunt, one that has shattered so many innocent lives, ever end-or will it just go on forever? After wasting more than $40,000,000 (is that possible?), it has proven only one thing-there was NO Collusion with Russia. So Ridiculous!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Did you ever see an investigation more in search of a crime? At the same time Mueller and the Angry Democrats aren’t even looking at the atrocious, and perhaps subversive, crimes that were committed by Crooked Hillary Clinton and the Democrats. A total disgrace!

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

When will this illegal Joseph McCarthy style Witch Hunt, one that has shattered so many innocent lives, ever end-or will it just go on forever? After wasting more than $40,000,000 (is that possible?), it has proven only one thing-there was NO Collusion with Russia. So Ridiculous!

As CBS News’ Mark Knoller notesthis is the 2nd day in a row, Pres Trump likening the Mueller investigation to  the Joe McCarthy witch hunt of the 50s, known for making reckless and  unsubstantiated accusations against officials he suspect of communist views.McCarthy was eventually censured by the Senate in 1954.

Last night, President Trump threatened to release a trove of “devastating” classified documents about the Mueller probe if Democrats follow through with their threatened investigations. He also declared that a pardon for soon-to-be-sentenced former Trump Campaign executive Paul Manafort was still “on the table.

end
Trump:  Cohen is lying about the Moscow project so as to reduce his sentence
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump: “Michael Cohen Is Lying”

Update: Just hours before President Trump was slated to board Air Force One for a 10-hour flight to Argentina for this weekend’s G-20 conference, the president has decided to address the guilty plea entered by his former personal attorney, Michael Cohen, at a federal court house in Manhattan this morning.

In response to questions from reporters on the south lawn of the White House, Trump accused Cohen of lying to avoid jail time and said he doesn’t know when he decided to drop the Trump Tower Moscow project that is at the center of the allegations in Cohen’s guilty plea.

  • *TRUMP SAYS EVERYBODY KNEW ABOUT RUSSIA PROJECT
  • *TRUMP SAYS HE DECIDED NOT TO PURSUE RUSSIA PROJECT
  • *TRUMP CALLS FORMER ATTORNEY COHEN `WEAK PERSON’
  • *TRUMP SAYS COHEN IS LYING ABOUT MOSCOW PROJECT TO GET REDUCED SENTENCE
  • *TRUMP SAYS DOES NOT KNOW WHEN HE DECIDED TO DROP MOSCOW PROJECT

Trump also accused his former fixer of being a “weak person.”

Cohen’s guilty plea raises questions about Trump’s statements regarding his business dealings in Russia during the campaign. In the days leading up to the plea, Trump has stepped up his attacks on the Mueller probe, accusing it of being a McCarthyist witch hunt that’s wasting taxpayer money.

Embedded video

CBS News

@CBSNews

WATCH: President Trump says his former attorney Michael Cohen is “a weak person” and “not a very smart person,” after Cohen pleaded guilty to making false statements https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-leaves-for-argentina-amid-reports-that-michael-cohen-is-pleading-guilty-today-2018-11-29-live-updates/

Trump said he considered the project for a short time but ultimately decided not to do it – though he insisted that there would have been nothing wrong if he did decide to do it. Trump said he abandoned the project because he wanted to focus on his campaign.

“I didn’t do the project – I decided not to do it. Michael Cohen what he is doing is he was convicted I guess – you’ll have to put it into legal terms – on things totally unrelated to the Trump organization on things related to mortgages – on things unrelated to us.

“he’s a weak person and by being weak what he’s trying to do is get a reduced sentence. He’s lying about a project that everybody knew about. i decided ultimately not to do it but if I did do it there would be nothing wrong.”

“When I run for president, that doesn’t mean I’m not allowed to do business. After I won, that means I’m not allowed to do business…but I ran a business – I often joke about the fact that I was the only person who campaigned and simultaneously ran a business.”

Trump added that Fox news reported on the Trump Tower Moscow deal back in January and that “everybody knew about it.”

“I was focused on running for president I wanted that to be my primary focus not building a building.”

“What he’s trying to do is – he’s a weak person and not a very smart person – he’s got a big prison sentence and he’s trying to get a smaller prison sentence by making up a story. Michael Cohen is lying and he’s trying to get a reduced sentence for things that have nothing to do with me.”

I think you should go back to January. [Fox] talks about a letter that he signed and it specifically talks about this deal. Everybody knows about this deal – I wasn’t trying to hide anything.”

In response to a question from a reporter, Trump said he’s “close to doing something with China” before ending the press conference and boarding a helicopter for Andrews Air Force Base, where he’s expected to depart for Argentina.

end
Trump does not fall for Mueller’s perjury trap as he outlines his involvement in the aborted Trump Moscow project.  Mueller did not ask Trump for a time line and thus no perjury
(courtesy zerohedge)

Special Counsel Used Cohen To Try To Catch Trump In A “Perjury Trap,” Giuliani

Says

Michael Cohen’s admission that he lied to Congress about the timeline for an aborted Trump Organization deal to build a Trump Tower Moscow (Cohen initially told Congress that the deal fell apart in January 2016, but confessed on Thursday that talks had continued until August of last year) triggered a wave of speculation Thursday morning about whether this was the masterstroke that would finally bring down the president. But amid all of the breathless coverage (as the media did its part in trying to revive the long-dead Russian collusion narrative), one important detail was lost: The fact that Trump – as he told reporters on the White House lawn Thursday – never lied to anyone about the Trump Tower Moscow project.

In fact, the details of Cohen’s admission fit with Trump’s claims that he didn’t have any business in Russia during his time as president (the deal, after all, never materialized). And what’s more, when Trump submitted written answers to Mueller last week, he offered a truthful accounting of the deal that comports with the description provided by Cohen, according to White House lawyer Rudy Giuliani.

Trump

During an interview with the New York Times, Giuliani revealed that Mueller had asked about the Trump Tower Moscow deal, and that Trump had been completely transparent about his involvement – turning over all requested documents and answering all of the special counsel’s questions, unlike Cohen, who blatantly lied to Congress.

Mr. Cohen admitted in court on Thursday that he had lied to congressional investigators about the length of the negotiations over the Trump Tower Moscow project and the extent of Mr. Trump’s involvement. He said that he discussed the deal with Mr. Trump several times and that Mr. Cohen continued to work on a potential deal until at least June 2016, court documents showed – months later than Mr. Cohen had told Congress that the deal fell apart.

Though the president tried to accommodate the special counsel’s office (within reason), he never provided a timeline for the deal talks. Why? Because Trump was never asked.

Mr. Giuliani said that Mr. Mueller’s office did not ask the president about the timing of his discussions with Mr. Cohen about the project.

Given the timing of Cohen’s plea deal with prosecutors, Giuliani believes that Mueller was attempting to lay a perjury trap for Trump – waiting for the president to offer more details about the deal in the hopes that he would catch him in a lie.

The fact that Mr. Cohen’s admission in a deal with prosecutors came so soon after Mr. Trump returned his responses to Mr. Mueller’s questions raised concerns among the president’s legal team that Mr. Mueller was laying a perjury trap – waiting for the president to explain his understanding of events before presenting evidence to the contrary to show that he lied, according to people close to the president’s legal team.

Mr. Giuliani said that the president and the Trump Organization, the umbrella company for his family’s businesses, have been forthcoming with Mr. Mueller’s investigators for months about the deal. The company, he added, voluntarily provided investigators with documents related to the Moscow deal.

Fortunately for Trump, he didn’t fall for it.

 
END
(courtesy the Hill/Chalfant)

Comey challenges House GOP subpoena in federal court

Former FBI Director James Comey is challenging a subpoena from House Republicans for his closed-door testimony in federal court.

Court records show that Comey filed a motion in federal court in Washington, D.C., on Thursday to quash a subpoena from the House Oversight and Judiciary Committees for his testimony on Dec. 3.

Comey has previously said that he would welcome testifying in public but would fight the subpoena for a closed-door appearance.

“Happy Thanksgiving. Got a subpoena from House Republicans. I’m still happy to sit in the light and answer all questions,” Comey tweeted on Thanksgiving Day. “But I will resist a ‘closed door’ thing because I’ve seen enough of their selective leaking and distortion. Let’s have a hearing and invite everyone to see.”

House Republicans are interested in Comey’s testimony as part of their inquiry into allegations of bias at the Justice Department and FBI ahead of the 2016 elections. GOP lawmakers accuse top officials of exhibiting bias against then-candidate Donald Trump in their decisions with respect to the Hillary Clinton email investigation and the counterintelligence investigation into ties between Trump’s campaign and Russia.

end

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
@realDonaldTrump: The reason that the small truck business in the U.S. is such a go to favorite is that, for many years, Tariffs of 25% have been put on small trucks coming into our country. It is called the “chicken tax.” If we did that with cars coming in, many more cars would be built here and G.M. would not be closing their plants in Ohio, Michigan & Maryland… If GM doesn’t want to keep their jobs in the United States, they should pay back the $11.2 billion bailout that was funded by the American taxpayer.
Mueller asked Trump about 2016 RNC platform change regarding Ukraine
Sources tell ABC News the president told Mueller he was not aware of the platform change to the best of his recollection. That would be consistent with his answer to a question about the matter to ABC News’s George Stephanopoulos during the summer of 2016… [Nothing but a perjury trap]
    The president was also asked about the now-infamous Trump Tower meeting between Donald Trump Jr., Jared Kushner, Paul Manafort and a Russian attorney in hopes of obtaining dirt on Hillary Clinton. According to sources, the President’s written response said he was unaware of the June 2016 meeting before and after it happened… [Nothing illegal about this meeting; it’s another perjury trap.]
    A third question posed by the special counsel centered on longtime Trump ally Roger Stone and his alleged contacts with WikiLeaks. The sources tell ABC News the president again said he did not recall being told by Stone about any contacts with WikiLeaks… [Nothing illegal here; yet another perjury trap]
 
Former AG Gonzales: ‘I Have a Problem’ With Mueller Team If ‘Perjury Traps’ Are Being Set
 
@Barnes_Law: Mueller really thought he could get Corsi & Manafort to rebut Trump’s statements on completely legal acts that Mueller could use to allege process crimes against Trump w/ innuendo of Russia conspiracy theories long debunked. The only real fraud & threat to democracy is Mueller
 
@realDonaldTrump: While the disgusting Fake News is doing everything within their power not to report it that way, at least 3 major players are intimating that the Angry Mueller Gang of Dems is viciously telling witnesses to lie about facts & they will get relief. This is our Joseph McCarthy Era!
 
Trump threatens to declassify ‘devastating’ docs about Democrats
President Trump says he’s prepared to declassify documents that would be “devastating” to his opponents if Democrats go after him next year when they control the House. “If they want to play tough, I will do it,” Trump told the Post in an interview Wednesday. “They will see how devastating those pages are.”… He said he wants to save the documents until they are needed to counterpunch Democrats…
    Trump added Wednesday that his lawyer Emmet Flood thought it would be better politically to wait…
 
Trump says pardon for Paul Manafort still a possibility
 
@jerome_corsi: I have retained attorney Larry Klayman to assist David Gray in my defense. In a memo to my attorneys, I have instructed Klayman and Gray to file with Acting AG Whitaker a criminal complaint against Mueller’s Special Counsel and the DOJ for prosecutorial misconduct in my case.
 
@Barnes_Law: Before Corsi & Manafort fallout, I thought Mueller team was highly unethical but alsohighly skilled. Now, I am thinking they are just like much of the swamp: as dumb as they are immoral.
 
Once upon a time, each utterance from Stormy Daniels or her attorney was heralded by the MSM.
 
Stormy Daniels: Michael Avenatti Sued Trump for Defamation against My Wishes
The porn star also says her lawyer refused to give her information about how her crowdfunding money was being spent, and launched a second crowdfund without her knowledge.

-END-

I WILL YOU ON FRIDAY
H
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