NOV 30/GOLD DOWN $4.00 TO $1220.70 AND SILVER WAS DOWN 17 CENTS ON OTC OPTIONS EXPIRY/DOW RISES BY 200 POINTS ON OPTIMISM THAT TRUMP WILL PREVAIL OVER XI TOMORROW (READ PETER TCHIR ON POSSIBLE OUTCOMES)/OFFICES OF COMPLIANCE OFFER OF DEUTSCHE BANK RAIDED TODAY/ALSO WHISTLEBLOWER ON THE URANIUM ONE SCANDAL RAIDED FROM WHICH CAIN HANDS OVER COPIES OF DOCUMENTS CONGRESS AND THE ATTORNEY GENERAL ALREADY HAVE..WHAT A MESS!!/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1220.70 DOWN  $4.00 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.16 DOWN 17 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1222.40

 

silver: $14.19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

DEC

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 2083 NOTICE(S) FOR 208300 OZ

Total number of notices filed so far for DEC:  219  for 208,300 OZ  (6.479 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR NOVEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

1463 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  7,315000  OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 1463 for 7,315,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $4327: DOWN 272

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $4327  down $272 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 5559 CONTRACTS FROM 190,258 DOWN TO 184,699  DESPITE YESTERDAY’S TINY 2 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

1677 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND 0 FOR MARCH AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1677 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1677 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1677 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 8.385 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 2 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

,                                                                                                    FOR AUGUST:  6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND

NOW 17.355 INITIALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV: 49,435 CONTRACTS (FOR 21 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 49,435 CONTRACTS) OR 247.18 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2354 CONTRACTS OR 11.77 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF NOV:  247.18 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 35.28% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,676.90    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR NOVEMBER /2018:                                 247.18         MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 5559 DESPITE THE TINY  2 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY AS THE BOYS CONTINUE WITH THEIR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OVER TO  ETFS AT THE START OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1677 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE LOST A HUGE SIZED: 3882 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 1677 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 5559 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 2 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.33 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .9240 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 132% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 1463 NOTICE(S) FOR 7,315000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./AND NOW DEC. AT 17.535 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY AN ATMOSPHERIC  SIZED 27,963 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 390,899 DESPITE THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A RISE IN PRICE OF $1.30//.YESTERDAY’S TRADING) AS THESE GUYS JOINED SILVER IN THE ROUTINE MIGRATION OVER TO ETF’S AS WE APPROACH AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED AN ATMOSPHERIC  SIZED 16,141 CONTRACTS:

 

DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 16,141 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 390,899. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,822 CONTRACTS:  27,963 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 16,141 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS: 11,822 CONTRACTS OR 1,182,200 OZ = 36.77 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $1.30

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 14521 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 179,955 CONTRACTS OR 17,775,500 OZ OR 552.88 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8569 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 21 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 552.88 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 552.88/2550 x 100% TONNES =  21.68% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,764.39  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR NOV 2018:                        552.88 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 27,963 DESPITE THE  GAIN IN PRICING ($1.30) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 16,141 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 16,141 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF 10,708 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

16,141 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 27,963 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the LOSS in total oi equates to 36.77 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS LACK OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN OF $1.30 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX

 

 

we had: 2083 notice(s) filed upon for 208,300 oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY:

 

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   761.74 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 761.74 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY

 

 

 

A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.22 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A GIGANTIC 5559 CONTRACTS from 190,258 DOWN TO 184,699  AND MOVING A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

1677 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1677 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 5413 CONTRACTS TO THE 1677 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A HUGE  NET LOSS  OF 3882 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE  LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 19.41 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. AND NOW 17.705 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A HUGE DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 2 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 1677 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.75 POINTS OR 0.81% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 55.72 POINTS OR 0.21% //The Nikkei closed UP 88.46 OR 0.40%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.48%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9465 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil DOWN to 50.58 dollars per barrel for WTI and 58.11 for Brent. Stocks inEurope OPENED RED//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.9465AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9407: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)China’s economy is falling apart.  The all important PMI (manufacturing and service) falls to exactly 50.00 which means it is basically in contraction.  Remember that China is the engine for global growth.  What China is telling us is that the global economy has been faltering for the past few months

( zerohedge)

ii)Not good:  China is trying hard to become a super power.  They are building far more nuclear subs than the Pentagon estimated
( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

i)GREAT BRITAIN/EU

An excellent article explaining to us the ins and outs of the upcoming vote in the uK parliament on Brexit.  The best scenario will be for May to cancel the debate and tell the EU they need a better deal as the one before the table is awful

(courtesy Macleod/GoldMoney.com)

GERMANY/DEUTSCHE BANK
The offices of Deutsche bank’s compliance chief as well as 5 board members.  The stock hits an all time low
(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Russia/UKRAINE

The situation between Russian and the Ukraine is getting worse by the minute.  It is good that Putin is showing restraint.  The Ukraine bans Russian men from the country but Russia will not reciprocate

( zerohedge)

ii)the background on the conflict between the Ukrainians and the Russians in the Kerch Strait
( Pat Buchanan/Unz Review)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7. OIL ISSUES

Russia is comfortable with prices at 50 dollars or below but not the USA as the huge junk debt of oil drillers will certainly weigh on them

( zerohedge)

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

ii)Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
( zerohedge/Chris Powell)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

 

 

ii)Market data/

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)GE tumbling  again and close to its previous low of $6.66

(courtesy zerohedge)

b)Snyder points out 3 things which happened just before the 2008 crisis is happening now

a good read..

( Michael Snyder)

c)Graham Summers and others have been commenting on the huge 750 billion dollar BBB- rated bonds trading in the USA.  These bonds are one step above junk rated and the last level of the so called investment grade bonds. Of these bonds 150/750 or 20% are already on negative watch.  However Goldman Sachs believes that we should be watching the one grade above these fallen angels:  A rated bonds and now we learn that a record number of A rated bonds are set to be downgraded into the BBB- sector.
very dangerous indeed..
(courtesy zerohedge)

d)A powerful 7.2 earthquake whacks Anchorage Alaska( zerohedge)

e)A good one from Peter Tchir of Academy Securities as to what to expect with tomorrows showdown with Xi

( Peter Tchir)

f)You will recall that all of the upper echelon of Goldman Sachs participated in the fraud that caused Malaysia to lose considerable dollars in a fraud.  We now have a former Dept of Justice official who accepted bribes from Low, one of the key architects of the scam who worked diligently close to our Goldman Sachs former CEO Blankfein and others..this may bring down Goldman Sachs..

( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)As I have stated to you, trump’s pursuit of a Moscow hotel deal was very legit and Michael Cohen’s plea deal has nothing to do with Russian interference in the election

( zerohedge)

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 27,963 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level 390,899 DESPITE THE  GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($1.30 IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 16,141 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR DECEMBER:  16,141 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  16,141 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  11,822 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 14,521 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A GIGANTIC SIZED 27,963 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 11,822 contracts OR 1,182,200 OZ OR 36.77 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of December and we have a huge 8864 contracts initially stand for delivery.  Thus by definition:

 

8864 contracts initially stand x 100 oz per contract =  886,400 oz or 27.57 tonnes which is a pretty good showing. (last yr. initial standing for gold 37.035 tonnes)

 

 

 

 

 

 

The next delivery month after December is January which saw it RISE TO 4765 FOR A GAIN OF 45 CONTRACTS.  February gained 5102 contracts to stand at 288,991 contracts.

FOR COMPARISON TO THE 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1/2017: 37.035 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

EVENTUALLY BY DEC 31.2017:  28.592 TONNES STOOD AND THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

AS A REMINDER WE HAVE ONLY 4.000 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD READY TO SERVE UPON OUR DEC LONGS.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 2083 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 208,300 OZ. (6.47 tonnes)

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY 5559 CONTRACTS FROM 190,258 DOWN TO 184,699 (AND FURTHER FROM NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S GIGANTIC  OI COMEX LOSS  OCCURRED WITH A 2 CENT LOSS IN PRICING???.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 1677 EFP CONTRACTS:

 

FOR DECEMBER: 1677 CONTRACTS, FOR MARCH 0 CONTRACTS, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1677.  ON A NET BASIS WE LOST 3822 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  5559 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1677 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   3882 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 2  CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY??

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of DECEMBER and here we now have 3507 notices INITIALLY  standing for silver. 

Thus by definition:  the initial amount of silver standing IN DECEMBER is as follows:

 

3507 notices x 5000 oz per contract  =  17.535 million oz.  (last yr initial standing 19.47 million oz)

 

 

 

 

 

After  December we have the non active  January contract month and here we saw a GAIN of 51 contracts up to 1988 contracts.   March, the next big delivery month after December saw a gain of 8929 contracts  up to 150,360

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1.2017 WE HAD A RATHER LARGE: 19.47 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY

BY THE END OF DECEMBER:  33.295 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NAME OF THE GAME IN SILVER.

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 1463 notice(s) filed for 7,315,000 OZ for the DEC, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 161,803 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  308,420  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

NOV 30-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

NIL

 

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
2083 notice(s)
 208,300 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
6781 contracts
(678100 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2083 notices
208,300 OZ
6.479 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

total gold entering dealer:  0 oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer;  0 oz

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 0 customer deposits
total customer deposits NIL oz
we had 1  adjustments..
i) Out of HSBC:  199,638.774 oz was removed out of the customer account and adjusted back to the dealer account
this is6.209 tonnes and in a couple of days we should see this 6.209 tonnes satisfy the first tranche of gold settlements

FOR THE DEC 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 2083 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 504 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.(AND 1035 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY GOLDMAN SACHS.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2083) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (8864 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (2083 x 100 oz per contract) equals 886,400 OZ OR 27.57 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DECEMBER

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (2083 x 100 oz)  + {8924)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2083 x 100 oz )which equals 886,400 oz standing OR 27.57 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DECEMBER.

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 10.21 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 27.57 TONNES STANDING FOR DECEMBER

of which we should see 6.47 tonnes transferred through an adjustment from the dealer to the customer to signify a settlement (first day notice filings.)

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  328,258.122 oz or   10.21 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,021,309.772 oz 249.512 tonnes

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 107 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

NOV INITIAL standings/SILVER

NOV 30, 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
599,758.815 oz
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
823170.240 oz
Brinks
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
No of oz served today (contracts)
1463
CONTRACT(S)
7,315,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2044 contracts
10,220,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 1463 contracts

(7,315,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

 

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into Brinks:  823170.240 oz

total dealer deposits: 823,170.240 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 151.7 million oz of  total silver inventory or 52.09% of all official comex silver. (152.0 million/292 million)

ii)Into everybody else:  zero

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: nil  oz

we had 1 withdrawal out of the customer account:
i) Out of CNT: 599,758.815  oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 599,758.815 oz

 

we had 2 adjustments

i) Out of CNT:  2,052,834.920 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

 

iii) Out of Scotia: 18,879.500 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account and this landed into the customer account of Scotia and this would be a settlement of 3 contracts.

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  86/585 million

total dealer + customer silver:  295.167  million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2018. contract month is represented by 1463 contract(s) FOR 7,315,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1463 x 5,000 oz = 7,315,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (3507) and the number of notices served upon today (1463 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2018 contract month: 1463(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC( 3507) -number of notices served upon today (1463)x 5000 oz equals 17,535,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 79,460 CONTRACTS  … 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 105,076 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 105076 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 397 million OZ  56.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -3.80-% (NOV 30/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.42% to NAV (NOV 30/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.80%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.25/TRADING 11.73/DISCOUNT 4.29

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.30: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 26/WITH GOLD DOWN 65 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

 

NOV 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.95: A BIG CHANGE: A GOOD SIZED DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 16/WITH GOLD UP $8.00: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.48 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 15/WITH GOLD UP $5.35/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $8.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.77 TONNES AT THE GLD/THAT SHOULD END THE WHACKING OF GOLD FOR NOW AND A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 84 TONNES: INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NOV 30.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 761.74 tonnes

*IN LAST 506 TRADING DAYS: 173.41 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 406 TRADING DAYS: A NET 13.41 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.22 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV /INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ.

NOV 28/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 188,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ/

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.301 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.718 MILLION OZ/

NOV 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ

NOV 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ.

NOV 21/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 563,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 16/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS; A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 328,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/ A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.784 MILLION OZ

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ/

 

 

NOV 30/2018:

 

Inventory 321.686 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.40/ and libor 6 month duration 2.89

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .49

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.69%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.12

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.43

end

We now have the answer as to the huge liquidation at the comex in gold

49,840 contracts were liquidated out of 83,139 or 59.94% of the total.

It was the massive liquidation of the stupid spreaders and this is the reason that price was basically unaffected.

 Friday, 30 November 2018 | Print  | Comment – New!

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
156,779 154,908 65,544 172,358 188,458 394,681 408,910
Change from Prior Reporting Period
-8,727 -1,702 49,840 -28,901 -35,941 -87,468 -87,483
Traders
139 101 86 51 52 239 199
Small Speculators   © GoldSeek.com
Long Short Open Interest
48,120 33,891 442,801
4,329 4,344 -83,139
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, November 27, 2018

 

and in silver:

17,767 contracts liquidated from the spreaders out of 23,266

or 76.36%

this explains the huge drop in oi from the comex without affecting the price

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
67,813 78,779 17,593 80,490 89,331
-3,833 -3,595 17,767 -3,365 -1,418
Traders
101 65 46 49 42
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 199,783 Long Short
33,887 14,080 165,896 185,703
1,699 -486 -23,266 -24,965 -22,780
non reportable positions Positions as of: 172 136
Tuesday, November 27, 2018   © SilverSeek.

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Ireland’s Mr Gold Reveals Nuggets Of Wisdom For When The Next Crash Comes

Ireland’s Mr Gold Reveals Nuggets Of Wisdom For When The Next Crash Comes

Editors note: I am not sure what to make of being called “Ireland’s Mr Gold” but I suppose you could be called worse. For me, my fellow founder Stephen and our excellent team, it has never been about gold itself, but rather it has been about the benefit that gold provides to our clients, their families, their companies and the wider society.

This benefit is not just in terms of hedging, financial insurance and owning a proven safe haven asset but also in terms of  the peace of mind that gold provides those who hold it in the safest ways possible.

Credit: Associated Newspapers (Ireland) Limited, t/a dmg Media Ireland

Our mission statement since 2003 has been ‘To protect and grow our client’s wealth with the provision of physical gold in the safest ways possible.’ With 16,000 clients in 140 countries, many of whom store gold with us in some of the safest vaults in the world, I am happy that we have achieved that.

Simply put, physical gold is about financial freedom and financial security in an uncertain world.

In the volatile world of today, gold has never been more important. Investors and pension owners who re-balance portfolios in the coming days and weeks will be handsomely rewarded in 2019 and in the coming years. They will sleep better at night too and not be worried about the latest Brexit shenanigans or Trump tweet!

Bill Tyson via MSN Money:

Mark O’Byrne is Ireland’s Mr Gold. The founder of GoldCore has just launched a gold storage facility in Dublin, where he says we should all stock up on gold bars to help survive a looming economic meltdown.

Not everyone is listening but he’s not surprised – they didn’t the last time either.

Why buy gold?

The wise old Wall Street adage was that one should have 10% of one’s wealth in physical gold and hope that it does not work.

The implication is that if gold rises sharply in price, it usually means that stocks, bonds, property, and indeed one’s business may be losing value.

This was seen in the last crisis and has been seen throughout history.

Are we really heading for economic meltdown?

We may be. More likely is another financial crisis akin to the one seen on 2007 to 2012, and that was pretty brutal. We believe geopolitical risks, including the risks of cyber terrorism, terrorism and war, are underestimated by investors.

Do you ever feel like the apocryphal guy with the placard saying ‘The end is nigh’ who gets taken for granted? 

A small bit. It can be a lonely place and it does not make you popular, especially in some of the media who have a strong ‘economic recovery’ narrative. I was early calling the global financial crisis as we were warning subscribers and clients in 2005 about the coming banking and property crisis.

However, we are not Armageddonists and do not believe the end of the world is nigh. Otherwise, we would be selling canned beans and nuclear bunkers!

How has gold been doing lately? It is down about 1.6% in euro terms this year but has actually done reasonably well since 2014, despite the surge in stock and bond markets.

Editors Note: We are bearish on gold in the short term but bullish on it’s prospects in Q1, 2019. The set up for gold is getting better and better, particularly due to the uncertain economic outlook and gold looks set for a strong 2019.

You advocate buying real gold. But how much does it cost to store?

Our average lump sum investment is €30,000 and that would cost 1% per annum to store in ultra-secure, institutional-grade vaults.

Can investors visit their gold – maybe stroke it, while cackling fiendishly about the looming economic Armageddon that will make them a fortune?

Ha! They cannot do this in the Dublin vaults due to security requirements but they can in our Zurich vaults, which remain our most popular storage location.

Gold is a diversification – a hedge and financial insurance. Actually, they hope the price does not [shoot upwards] as if it does it generally means the rest of their investments – their pensions, savings, bank deposits etc – will likely have fallen in value.

What about yourself? Are you a spender or a saver?

I’m a saver but I allow myself to spend on good food, holidays and family.

Are you into bling?

Not a big fan of jewellery at all: most of it is a rip-off as the mark-ups are massive (200% to 400%) and there is VAT on jewellery. This is in marked contrast to gold bars, which can be bought for 3%+ (premium) and no VAT in the UK and EU due to the EU Gold Directive.

Are you wearing any gold jewellery at all?

My wedding ring is a silver ring that I really liked and picked out and my wife bought me it in a gift store in Dingle. It cost €40 but has some interesting insignia symbolising the history of Ireland.

Best/worst investments?

Best investment is in ongoing education and personal development including a recent course with Dr Joe Dispenza.

Health is wealth!

Favourite film?

(Apart from Goldfinger!) True Romance! Love the song in that movie too.

How did it go for you in the financial crash?

As we expected, it went well. Irish people began investing in gold for the first time and we were very busy with that and with UK and international clients.

How do you buy stuff? Cash? Credit card? Gold sovereigns?

I am DIVERSIFIED. Cash, credit cards and a ‘real gold’ card, which I can use to buy things with actual gold stored in a vault in Zurich. With gold at €1,070 per oz, three pints costs 0.0015 of an ounce of gold.

Three things you’d do as finance minister?

1. Repatriate whatever Irish national gold reserves we still have and mandate that 10% of the national pension fund be allocated to gold and that it be stored in institutional grade vaults in Ireland.

2. Introduce a flat income tax of about 25% and increase taxes on consumption (especially on luxuries like jewellery, shoes, handbags, sports cars etc).

Full Article On MSN Money

 

Gold and silver traded sideways this week as stock markets saw what appears to be a short covering rally and a “dead cat bounce.”

Of note was natural gas surging again and lumber collapsing nearly 10% in the week due to concerns about the US housing market …

Source: Finviz.com

News and Commentary

Gold prices flat ahead of Trump-Xi meet at G20 summit (Reuters.com)

U.S. pending home sales drop in October (Reuters.com)

US weekly jobless claims rise to 6-month high (CNBC.com)

Deutsche Bank Raided in Laundering Probe Going Into 2018 (Bloomberg.com)

Gold’s set up is getting better and better and it looks set for a strong 2019 (Finance.com)


Source: Bloomberg

What is the optimal weight for gold in a portfolio? (Papers.com)

The $15 Billion Money Pit Dragging GE Down (Bloomberg.com)

The Cost Of Insurance Is About To Jump (DollarCollapse.com)

Refusals to answer should be enough to settle the gold-rigging issue (GATA.org)

Bubbles and Hot Potatoes – Hussman (HussmanFunds.com)

Key passages from the Fed minutes (MarketWatch.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

29 Nov: USD 1,226.25, GBP 960.03 & EUR 1,077.87 per ounce
28 Nov: USD 1,213.20, GBP 949.69 & EUR 1,074.77 per ounce
27 Nov: USD 1,225.05, GBP 959.70 & EUR 1,082.21 per ounce
26 Nov: USD 1,226.65, GBP 954.58 & EUR 1,079.33 per ounce
23 Nov: USD 1,222.15, GBP 951.69 & EUR 1,075.13 per ounce
22 Nov: USD 1,228.25, GBP 950.42 & EUR 1,074.72 per ounce
21 Nov: USD 1,224.00, GBP 957.29 & EUR 1,075.04 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

29 Nov: USD 14.26, GBP 11.17 & EUR 12.55 per ounce
28 Nov: USD 14.15, GBP 11.06 & EUR 12.54 per ounce
27 Nov: USD 14.28, GBP 11.20 & EUR 12.61 per ounce
26 Nov: USD 14.38, GBP 11.18 & EUR 12.65 per ounce
23 Nov: USD 14.26, GBP 11.12 & EUR 12.56 per ounce
22 Nov: USD 14.52, GBP 11.26 & EUR 12.72 per ounce
21 Nov: USD 14.42, GBP 11.26 & EUR 12.65 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– BREXIT May Lead to UK Property Crash and Depression
– General Motors And General Electric Highlight The Ponzi Scheme That Is The US Economy
– A Worldwide Debt Default Is A Real Possibility
– Risk of Lower Lows in Gold Remains Prior to Spectacular Rally to Follow
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davidrussell

 
ii) GATA stories

 




iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

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end

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Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.9465/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER NOW ON //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9407   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 20.75 POINTS OR 0.81%

. HANG SANG CLOSED UP 55.72 POINTS OR 0.21%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 88.46 POINTS OR 0.40%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.96/Euro FALLS TO 1.1366

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.09/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 113.52/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 50.58 and Brent: 59.11

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.31%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 3.20% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.51%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.89: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.27

3k Gold at $1222.10 silver at:14.25   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 60/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.86

3m oil into the 50 dollar handle for WTI and 59 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.52DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9979 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1314 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.31%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.01% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.31%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.1702

 

Nervous Traders Drag US Futures, World Stocks Lower

Ahead Of G-20

US equity futures, European and Asian stocks all dropped as nervous investors looked ahead skeptically to a much anticipated meeting between the American and Chinese presidents that could decide the course of the trade war. US Treasury yields dropped and the dollar gained amid a flutter of risk-off sentiment across the globe.

The G20 Summit kicks off today in Buenos Aires, and while the main event will be the Trump-Xi “dinner of the decade” on Saturday, headline risk is high for the entire event. Market participants have every reason to be nervous: heading into the meeting neither side has expressed a willingness to make concession, making the outcome highly uncertain.

Ahead of his Saturday meeting with Xi, Trump said Thursday he’s very close to “doing something” with China as officials work on the contours of a deal that may delay ramping up tariffs on the Asian country in January. Any sign of a trade truce could take the edge off a rampant greenback and boost risk assets including emerging-market currencies and stocks. Goldman Sachs, however, said an escalation of tensions is the most likely outcome. Citi agrees and notes that even a positive statement will likely be faded promptly by markets because as Citi notes, “any material break in the trade war impasse is difficult to achieve, and so any positive response on Monday may ultimately be short-lived.”

US equity futures were down 0.5%, following weakness in Europe where the Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped to session lows, falling as much as 0.6% and trimming its weekly gains following a raft of disappointing macro data. Revised data showed Italy’s economy contracted 0.1% q/q in 3Q; German Oct. adjusted retail sales dropped -0.3% m/m; missing estimates of +0.4%. Euro-area inflation slipped to 2% in November from a year earlier, matching estimates, while the core reading unexpectedly dropped to 1%.

Germany’s DAX (-0.6%) felt the burden of falling auto names after Daimler (-2.7%) was downgraded to sell at HSBC, in turn moving the likes of Volkswagen (-1.1%) and BMW (-1.8%) lower in sympathy. Sector wise, consumer discretionary (weighed by auto names) lags, closely followed by financials as Morgan Stanley downgraded the EU banking sector, while Deutsche bank (-3.0%) shares hit an all time low as the bank feels the brunt of a double whammy from the aforementioned downgrade alongside a second day of raids amid the money laundering probe. Italian PM Conte and Economy Minister Tria are studying cutting the 2019 deficit/GDP target to around 2% in order to reach a deal with the EU; according to a paper.

In the latest Brexit news, UK PM May said Britain will be a more divided country if Parliament votes against her Brexit deal, while she also urged MPs to think about delivering on Brexit vote and answered that she is focused on December 11th vote when asked if she has a plan B if her deal is not approved by Parliament. The number of Conservative MPs who have spoken out against Theresa May’s Brexit deal hit 100 as critics said her two-week charm offensive is failing.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks traded mixed amid a cautious global risk tone with shares gaining in Tokyo, slipping in Seoul and slumping in Sydney, while rebounding in Shanghai and Hong Kong ahead of the US-China showdown at the G20 and as participants digested disappointing Chinese PMI data. ASX 200 (-1.6%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) initially followed suit to the lacklustre lead from their counterparts stateside with Australia the underperformer on broad weakness in which nearly all sectors declined, while Japanese exporters were hampered by recent flows into the JPY before staging a late recovery. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) were initially indecisive due to trade uncertainty amid a ‘hot and cold’ stance by US President Trump who stated he is close to doing something on trade with China but is unsure if he wants to, while reports noted that White House Trade Adviser and ‘China hawk’ Navarro is back on the guest list for the Trump-Xi dinner tomorrow evening. Furthermore, the latest Chinese PMI data left much to be desired as both Official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs missed expectations with the former at its lowest since June 2016. The indices closed higher on the day, however.

  • Chinese Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 50.0 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 50.2)
  • Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 53.4 vs. Exp. 53.8 (Prev. 53.9)
  • Chinese Composite PMI (Nov) 52.8 (Prev. 53.1)

Also overnight, Japan reported the latest inflation data, which was slightly weaker on the margin with Tokyo CPI missing expectations;

  • Japanese Tokyo CPI (Nov) Y/Y 0.8% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1.5%).
  • Japanese Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food (Nov) Y/Y 1.0% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.0%)

The Bank of Korea hiked the 7 Day Repo Rate by 25bps to 1.75% as expected, while it stated that sluggish employment eased somewhat and that exports will sustain favourable movements, but that it sees investments slowing. BoK Governor Lee said the rate decision was not unanimous as 2 board members voted to maintain rates, while Lee also commented that the policy rate is  still not at neutral and that he is not worried much about capital outflows due to further Fed rate hikes.

In FX, the dollar rebounded sharply from yesterday’s losses, rising against most G-10 peers in a muted trading session; Treasury yields edged lower while the yen was steady as investors refrained from taking risks ahead of this weekend’s meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. The euro slipped to a day low, holding below the 1.14 handle, after London came into the market. The Norwegian krone crept lower after oil prices resumed their slump, while retail sales contracted in October, missing estimates and unemployment rose in November; DNB finds it likely that Norges Bank will adjust down its rate path in December. The pound remained under pressure, drifting downward as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May continued efforts to win backers for her Brexit deal. Emerging-market equities and currencies dipped.

Finally, Korea’s won held on to this week’s losses as Friday’s interest rate increase did little to assuage concern surrounding the economy.

WTI crude was dragged back under $51 a barrel, on track for the biggest monthly drop in a decade. The euro weakened after data showed inflation in the common-currency region easing.

Looking at this weekend’s key event, Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd told Bloomberg TV that “I wouldn’t be surprised at the end of this weekend if the U.S. and China didn’t announce a concord that basically sat down a path to help resolve the trade frictions. I don’t think that out of the meeting there’s going to come much substance, but there will be a sort of set of principles that will be established to start the process of bringing an end to the trade war.”

WTI (-1.4%) and Brent (-1.0%) lost the USD 51/bbl and USD 60/bbl handles respectively with sentiment deteriorating as the G20 Summit goes underway, where participants will be looking out for leaks in regard to any potential supply change discussed by key policy makers. Meanwhile, ahead of the Dec 6th OPEC meeting, Russian Energy Ministry stated that OPEC and non-OPEC producers are comfortable with the current oil price, while the country’s Energy Minister Novak said Russia plans to maintain the average oil output level until year-end. Note: yesterday he said Russia proposes an output cut for next year.

In the metals complex, gold (-0.2%) erodes post-Powell gains and remains in the November range of USD 1200-1240/oz as the yellow metal mirrors the rising USD, with traders noting a clean break above the top of the range could result in further bullish action. Copper (-0.3%) trade lower amid the cautious risk tone ahead of the Trump-Xi G20 showdown, with moves to the downside exacerbated by the disappointing Chinese manufacturing PMIs overnight. Elsewhere, Shanghai aluminium prices declined to their lowest level in over two years to print their third consecutive monthly decline amid oversupply fused with downbeat Chinese PMIs

Economic data include MNI Chicago Business Barometer.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2,734.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 356.33
  • MSCI Asia down 0.2% to 153.44
  • MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.4% to 490.93
  • Nikkei up 0.4% to 22,351.06
  • Topix up 0.5% to 1,667.45
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 26,506.75
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 2,588.19
  • Sensex up 0.05% to 36,186.77
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.6% to 5,667.16
  • Kospi down 0.8% to 2,096.86
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 0.312%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1374
  • Brent Futures down 1.1% to $58.88/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 5.1 bps to 2.837%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 1.506%
  • Brent futures down 1.1% to $58.88/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,221.86
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 97.00

Top Overnight News

  • Federal Reserve officials have stepped off a predictable path of interest-rate increases and are signaling to investors a hard truth about relying on increasingly contradictory economic data: There are no easy answers anymore.
  • Waning year-end demand for the U.S. currency is leading to a decline in dollar-funding costs for Japanese and European investors
  • Gold may be turning the corner as prices head for the first back-to-back monthly gain since January, holdings in exchange-traded funds expand, and investors reappraise the metal’s prospects in 2019 amid speculation the Federal Reserve will pause its tightening cycle
  • The sequence in which the ECB will take its next policy moves “has pretty much been communicated. It’s more about the timing of the various elements,” Estonian central banker Ardo Hansson says in interview with Financial Times
  • The first official reading of China’s economy in November showed the manufacturing PMI on the brink of contraction. New export orders contracted for a sixth month while the non-manufacturing gauge, reflecting activity in the construction and services sectors, expanded but at a slower pace

Asian stocks traded mixed amid a cautious global risk tone ahead of the US-China showdown at the G20 and as participants digested disappointing Chinese PMI data. ASX 200 (-1.6%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) initially followed suit to the lacklustre lead from their counterparts stateside with Australia the underperformer on broad weakness in which nearly all sectors declined, while Japanese exporters were hampered by recent flows into the JPY before staging a late recovery. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) were initially indecisive due to trade uncertainty amid a ‘hot and cold’ stance by US President Trump who stated he is close to doing something on trade with China but is unsure if he wants to, while reports noted that White House Trade Adviser and ‘China hawk’ Navarro is back on the guest list for the Trump-Xi dinner tomorrow evening. Furthermore, the latest Chinese PMI data left much to be desired as both Official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs missed expectations with the former at its lowest since June 2016. The indices closed higher on the day, however. Finally, 10yr JGB traded lacklustre after having failed to benefit from the risk averse tone in Japan and BoJ’s presence in the bond market, as prices marginally pulled back from recent gains which had seen long-term yields hit their lowest levels since the beginning of August.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Worsening Economy Adds Pressure on Xi Heading to G-20
  • BOJ Governor Kuroda’s Latest Pay Raise Falls Short
  • Meitu Sinks on Concern Data Privacy Warning Will Worsen Losses
  • Evergrande Leads China Developer Rally; Rhb Cites Policy Hopes

Major European indices are lower across the board (Eurostoxx 50 -0.3%) after the region gave up opening gains amid trade jitters heading the US-Sino showdown at the G20 Summit. UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.7%) underperforms peers as heavyweight miners are pressured by the price action in the base metals complex, while Germany’s DAX (-0.6%) feels the burden of falling auto names after Daimler (-2.7%) was downgraded to sell at HSBC, in turn moving the likes of Volkswagen (-1.1%) and BMW (-1.8%) lower in sympathy. Sector wise, consumer discretionary (weighed by auto names) lags, closely followed by financials as Morgan Stanley downgraded the EU banking sector, while Deutsche bank (-3.0%) shares hit an all time low as the bank feels the brunt of a double whammy from the aforementioned downgrade alongside a second day of raids amid the money laundering probe. In terms of stock specifics, Altice (+8.0%) rose to the top of the Stoxx 600 (-0.5%) after the company sold its 49.9% stake in SFR GTTH for EUR 1.8bln, while Faurecia (-7.1%) is the worst performer in Europe amid a downgrade.

Top European News

  • Bayer Gains as Analysts Applaud Surprise Measures: Street Wrap
  • The London Housing Market Is Worse Than It Looks. Here’s Why
  • Italian Jobless Rate Jumps With More Reentering Labor Market
  • SocGen Seeks to Tap African Growth and Shrug Off Europe Woes
  • Europe Auto Stocks Drop as China, Trade Prompt PT Cuts at HSBC

In FX, the Greenback remains off pre-Powell highs in wake of the latest FOMC minutes that effectively affirm a shift in the approach towards forward guidance that may start in December after a final rate hike this year, with less pre-set indications and more flexibility to take on board incoming data. However, the Buck is ahead vs all G10 counterparts bar the Kiwi that is benefiting from favourable cross-winds, with the index edging just over 97.000 again. EUR – The single currency has been more volatile than most ahead of the looming G20 Summit and month end, with more spikes vs the Pound through 0.8900 around fixes due to ongoing/residual RHS interest, but another failure at 1.1400 vs the Usd on round number offers and option expiry flows as circa 1.6 bn roll off between the big figure and 1.1410 at the NY cut. Moreover, some Usd12.6 bn SOMA-related Dollar demand coincides with the final trading day of November, and this usually weighs most heavily on Eur/Usd vs potential bids at 1.1350 where another 1.6bn expiries reside. AUD/CAD – Also underperforming vs the Greenback, with the Aud bearing the brunt of a weaker than forecast Chinese manufacturing PMI overnight ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting on Saturday, and struggling top keep hold of 0.7300 as the Aud/Nzd cross pivots 1.0650 and the Kiwi remains within striking distance of its 200 DMA (0.6870). Meanwhile, the Loonie is back below 1.3300 as crude prices resume their slide amidst reports from Russia suggesting that OPEC+ are content with current levels, which have also piled more pressure on the Rub for obvious reasons.

In commodities, WTI (-1.4%) and Brent (-1.0%) lost the USD 51/bbl and USD 60/bbl handles respectively with sentiment  deteriorating as the G20 Summit goes underway, where participants will be looking out for leaks in regard to any potential supply change discussed by key policy makers. Meanwhile, ahead of the Dec 6th OPEC meeting, Russian Energy Ministry stated that OPEC and non-OPEC producers are comfortable with the current oil price, while the country’s Energy Minister Novak said Russia plans to maintain the average oil output level until year-end. Note: yesterday he said Russia proposes an output cut for next year. In the metals complex, gold (-0.2%) erodes post-Powell gains and remains in the November range of USD 1200-1240/oz as the yellow metal mirrors the rising USD, with traders noting a clean break above the top of the range could result in further bullish action. Copper (-0.3%) trade lower amid the cautious risk tone ahead of the Trump-Xi G20 showdown, with moves to the downside exacerbated by the disappointing Chinese manufacturing PMIs overnight. Elsewhere, Shanghai aluminium prices declined to their lowest level in over two years to print their third consecutive monthly decline amid oversupply fused with downbeat Chinese PMIs.

 

US Event Calendar

  • 9am: Fed’s Williams Speaks on Global Economy at G30 in New York
  • 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Manager, est. 58.5, prior 58.4

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As I peer into the distance toward s snow-covered mountain tops, the last day of November is now upon us and all of a sudden we’re into the final countdown to year-end, my Xmas ski trip, and thus the likelihood of getting reacquainted with my knee surgeon sometime early next year. We noted at the start of this week that there are still a few big events for markets to get past before we can call it a year and the first of those starts today and continues into the weekend with the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires. The G20 overall is a sideshow to the main event, which is the meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jingping. Will the two leaders strike a truce and thus a grand bargain on trade or will talks hit another snag? It would take a brave man to predict the outcome and it does feel like messages have been fairly mixed in recent days despite some optimism from the US side, especially from Trump’s economic advisor Kudlow, that a deal can be made. Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the two sides are approaching a deal, possibly to include suspension of any new US tariffs through next spring in exchange for discussions and the lifting of restrictions on US agriculture and energy exports. On the other hand, the President told the very same newspaper earlier this week that it is “highly unlikely” that the next tranche of tariffs, set to take effect on Jan 1, will be delayed. Yesterday’s Reuters headline quoting Trump as saying that he is “close to doing something with China, but he doesn’t know if he wants to do it” perhaps sums up the state of play nicely. Interestingly, the South China Morning Post reported that the White House trade policy adviser, Peter Navarro – who is a known China hawk – is now scheduled to attend the dinner between Trump and Xi having initially been left out. US Trade Representative Lighthizer is still due to attend.

So all to play for and something for everyone in the pre-show headlines. As for timing, the meeting between Trump and Xi is due to take place Saturday evening at some point over dinner, however the exact timing is uncertain. Another potentially interesting meeting on the agenda was that between Trump and Russian President Putin. However, after the Kremlin confirmed yesterday that the meeting was to go ahead tomorrow, President Trump instead said that he had cancelled the meeting, tweeting yesterday that his decision was “based on the fact that the ships and sailors have not been returned to Ukraine from Russia”.

In any case, the tensions between Russia and the Ukraine should also be a focal point along with the trade war, while the  presence of the Saudi Crown Prince could also be another talking point. The event has no shortage of AListers however with Japan’s Abe, Germany’s Merkel, France’s Macron, UK’s May, EC’s Juncker, EU’s Tusk, Italy’s Conte, and Turkey’s Erdogan among the leaders attending so there’s the potential for plenty of newsflow this weekend.

As for markets, well the strong three-day winning run for US equities came to an end last night with the S&P 500 (-0.22%), DOW (-0.11%) and NASDAQ (-0.25%) all finishing slightly in the red. As has been the trend recently, tech led the decliners with the NYSE FANG index down -1.13% with Apple (-0.77%) down for the sixth time in the last eight sessions. It was hard to know if the slight riskoff was some pessimism ahead of the G20 or reaction to the news that Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen had pleaded guilty to a new federal charge and also agreed to cooperate with Robert Mueller. Prior to this, Europe had opened strongly, benefiting from the dovish Powell halo effect, though ultimately the moves faded. The STOXX 600 pared gains of as much as +0.75% to close +0.20% and the DAX erased gains of +0.93% to close flat.

This morning in Asia markets are off to a mixed start with the Nikkei (+0.33%), Hang Seng (+0.69%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.23%) all up while the Kospi (-0.26%) is down. In terms of overnight data, China’s official November composite PMI continued to soften at 52.8 (vs. 53.1 last month) as both manufacturing (50.0 vs. 50.2 expected) and non-manufacturing PMIs (at 53.4 vs. 53.8 expected) missed expectations. In the details of the manufacturing PMI, new export orders (at 47.0) printed below 50 for the 6th month in a row with new orders also continuing to soften sequentially with the current reading at 50.4 (vs. 50.8 in last month and 53.8 back in May). Japan’s preliminary October industrial production stood at +2.9% mom (vs. +1.2% mom expected) – the highest since January 2015.

Elsewhere, futures on S&P 500 (-0.17%) are pointing towards a slightly softer start. The BoJ is also set to release its monthly bond-buying plan for December at 5:00 pm Tokyo time (8:00 am BST) today which is likely to be closely watched for any possible tweaks as the BoJ tries to boost trading in JGBs. The minutes from the November FOMC meeting were released yesterday evening, but didn’t change the debate much, especially when compared to the market-moving comments from Chair Powell earlier this week. The minutes said that many Committee members may want to change the “further gradual increases” language in the policy statement to something that “places greater emphasis on the evaluation of incoming data.” This confirms the renewed emphasis on data dependency that Powell and Clarida pushed this week. The minutes also signaled that a technical adjustment to the rate setting framework would likely be needed at the December meeting, i.e. raising the IOER rate only 20bps rather than the full 25bps in order to keep the effective federal funds rate near the middle of the target range.

There were several notable landmarks in markets elsewhere yesterday. The first was the 10-year Treasury briefly passing below 3% – touching an intraday low of 2.995% – for first time since September 18th and WTI oil passing below $50 – hitting a low of $49.41 – for the first time since October 9th last year. To be fair both rebounded off the lows. Ten-year Treasuries ended the day at 3.026% (still down -3.3bps on the day) while WTI made a full reversal to finish the session back above $51 (+2.11%), which is roughly where it’s trading this morning. That rebound appeared to be helped by a Reuters report suggesting that both Russia and Saudi Arabia were discussing the details behind a cut in production.

The rally for Treasuries was given an added boost by yesterday’s data in the US. The highlight was the soft core PCE print for October (+0.1024% vs. +0.2% expected) which resulted in the annual rate falling by one-tenth from an already downwardly-revised +1.94% yoy to +1.77% yoy, the lowest since February. On the back of a dovish Powell on Wednesday, that data was perhaps more fuel to the fire for the dovish camp and could drive more talk of a pause in the Fed’s tightening cycle. It’s worth noting that the healthcare component of the data was soft and that there could be some seasonality in this data so that is something to keep in mind.

The other interesting data point in the US yesterday was the weekly initial jobless claims print, which jumped 10k to 234k (vs. 220k expected) and the highest in six months. The four-week moving average is now at 223k and the highest since July. There was some talk that the Thanksgiving Holiday may have had an impact on the data, however a persistent uptick in the jobless claims data would definitely be food for thought looking ahead. So worth setting a calendar reminder for this print over the next two Thursdays after a long period where the number has been no more than a mild distraction to lunch or breakfast depending on where you are in the world.

Over in Italy, the Government and the European Commission continued to trade barbs, with Conte saying that they “are not indifferent to the reaction of financial markets [but] we can’t back away from the core promises we made to Italians.” There still seems to be movement toward a budget deficit of 2.2% of GDP rather than 2.4%, but Commission VP Dombrovskis said that would be an insufficient cut. Italian Deputy Premier Salvini said that the Italian government is not considering lowering the budget deficit below 2.2% while adding that “if there is a saving we won’t leave the money there unspent, we will invest it for other spending.” Still, the Italian press reported that the EU could give Italy more time before instigating the Excessive Deficit Procedure, i.e. delaying the decision till February 2019. This helped BTPs rally -5.2bps despite tepid demand as the Treasury auctioned 4.25 billion euros of debt across the 10- and 5-year tenors.

On Brexit, we didn’t get a lot of new information yesterday but the pound nevertheless traded -0.35% weaker versus the dollar. EU Chief Negotiator Barnier said that discussions are over and that the current Withdrawal Agreement is the only possible Brexit deal. DUP Leader Foster reiterated her opposition to the deal, saying that there exists a better option. It’s hard to square those two views, which explains where there is so much uncertainty ahead of next month’s Parliamentary vote. Interesting it looks like we’ll have a live televised debate with May Vs Corbyn on primetime TV on Sunday 9th December. The problem is that May has agreed to have it on the BBC whereas Corbyn is leaning towards ITV as he didn’t want it to clash with the finale of “I’m a celebrity get me out of here”. It rather sums up the process at the moment. Overnight, on her way to the G-20 summit, UK PM May said that national divisions over Brexit will widen if lawmakers fail to back her plans in the parliamentary vote next month while adding that there are no alternatives to her current deal as she ruled out another referendum and said Britain won’t be in a Customs Union with the EU and dismissed the Norway option. She also reiterated that she won’t resign in the event of her Brexit deal getting rejected by the UK Parliament.

Coming back to inflation, there was also some disappointment in the German HICP reading which came in at a below market +0.1% mom (vs. +0.2% expected) – and so pushing the annual rate down two tenths to +2.2% yoy. A reminder that we get the broader Euro Area reading today in addition to country level reports from France and Italy.

Apart from the inflation and jobless claims prints, the US also released personal income and personal spending data, which both surprised to the upside and supported the narrative of continued labour market strength for now. Income rose +0.5% mom, the fastest pace since January, while spending rose +0.6%, fastest since March. The housing market continued to show signs of slowing, as home sales fell -2.6% mom, their sixth consecutive decline. That’s the longest such streak since 2014.

In terms of the day ahead, as mentioned at the top the G20 Leaders Summit officially gets underway and continues into the weekend, so expect headlines throughout. As for data, shortly after this hits your emails this morning we’ll get November Nationwide house price data in the UK and October German retail sales numbers. Not long after that we get the preliminary November CPI reading for France before the aforementioned Euro Area reading. In the US the only release scheduled is the November Chicago PMI, which is expected to largely hold steady around October’s level. Away from the data we’re finishing the week with two more ECB speakers, with Mersch and Coeure speaking at separate events. Finally the Fed’s Williams will speak this afternoon on the “Global Economy” at an event in New York.

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.75 POINTS OR 0.81% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 55.72 POINTS OR 0.21% //The Nikkei closed UP 88.46 OR 0.40%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.48%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9465 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil DOWN to 50.58 dollars per barrel for WTI and 58.11 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.9465AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9407: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

END

3 C CHINA

China’s economy is falling apart.  The all important PMI (manufacturing and service) falls to exactly 50.00 which means it is basically in contraction.  Remember that China is the engine for global growth.  What China is telling us is that the global economy has been faltering for the past few months

(courtesy zerohedge)

China PMI Plunges To 29-Month Lows, Nears Economic Contraction

Despite stepping up fiscal and monetary support in recent months, China PMI tumbled to 50 in November – right at the cusp of economic contraction – the weakest prints since June 2016.

Against expectations of an unchanged 50.2 print, China Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0 in November (and non-manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.4 from 53.9).

This weakness comes following a string of measures including personal tax cuts and plans to provide credit support for private firms to obtain equity and bond financing, and confirms early indicators signaling weakening on the external front. Among China’s major trading partners, the U.S. and Euro flash PMIs are expected to come in flat. South Korea’s export growth – a barometer for Asia’s exports – decelerated to 5.7% year on year in the first 20 days of November from 26% during the same period in October.

The Composite PMI is the weakest in at least two years, tracking lower with Eurozone and US in November…

Global synchronized un-recovery?

END
Not good:  China is trying hard to become a super power.  They are building far more nuclear subs than the Pentagon estimated
(courtesy zerohedge)

Miscalculation: China Building More Nuclear Subs Than Pentagon Estimated, Report

Some of America’s most influential think tanks and the Pentagon have likely underestimated the number of Chinese nuclear submarines under construction, a new report suggests. 

Satellite imagery of the Bohai Shipyard and Longpo Naval Facility taken by Planet Labs shows that “China does not yet have a credible sea-based deterrent,” Catherine Dill of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey told Defense One. Two of China’s four Jin-class submarines “appear to not be in operation and are undergoing maintenance or repairs at the Bohai shipyard, suggesting to us that credibility is still in question.”

Defense One said that contradicts the US Defense Department’s 2018 China Military Report and the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ (CSIS) report, which had stated that China had four operational Jin-class subs.

The report said there is one additional submarine under construction that the Pentagon missed.

Jeffrey Lewis, a colleague of Dill, discovered that China had one more nuclear submarine in development than previously believed. He observed a total of five submarine hulls in production, three at Longpo and two at the Bohai shipyard, indicating that China’s modernization efforts are ahead of schedule to meeting its goal of eight.

“China is continuing to modernize its nuclear weapons program, broadly,” Dill said. “There’s a big emphasis on the SSBN program because all of their deliverable nuclear weapons are on land-based systems. Expanding into these SSBNs gives China more flexibly and credibility.”

The Bohai Chinese Naval port, displaying two Jin-class subs, taken on Nov. 16, courtesy of Planet LabsThe Longpo Chinese naval facility displaying multiple Jin-class subs, take on Nov 16, courtesy of Planet LabsShe added, “These observations would not have been possible without the high cadence of the Planet imagery, which gave us 244 days of exploitable imagery to monitor from July 2017 to November 2018.”

By comparison, the US nuclear-armed submarine fleet features 14 Ohio-class subs, which are comparable in size to China’s Jin-class sub and Russia’s Borey-class.

Boston College Geopolitical Professor Robert Ross, an expert on Chinese defense and security policy, released a new report entitled “The End of US Naval Dominance in Asia,” it warns that at the current rate of modernization by China, US Navy’s global dominance could be displaced sometime in the mid/late 2020s.

“The rapid rise of the Chinese Navy has challenged US maritime dominance throughout East Asian waters,” Ross writes. “The US, though, has not been able to fund a robust shipbuilding plan that could maintain the regional security order and compete effectively with China’s naval build-up.”

“The resulting transformation of the balance of power has led to fundamental changes in US acquisitions and defense strategy. Nonetheless, the US has yet to come to terms with its diminished influence in East Asia.”

Ross provides documentation that shows China is well on its way to deploying a naval fleet that could rival the US, but increasingly more modern.

Sometime around 2038, roughly two decades from now, China will surpass the US in military spending, and become the world’s dominant superpower not only in population and economic growth – China is set to overtake the US economy by no later than 2032 – but in military strength and global influence as well.

While it might not seem like much when American think tanks and the Pentagon underestimated the number of Chinese nuclear submarines in development, it could otherwise show how unprepared the West is for a rising China. 

END

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

GREAT BRITAIN/EU

An excellent article explaining to us the ins and outs of the upcoming vote in the uK parliament on Brexit.  The best scenario will be for May to cancel the debate and tell the EU they need a better deal as the one before the table is awful

(courtesy Macleod/GoldMoney.com)

‘No Deal’ Brexit: Bad For Britain, Catastrophic For EU

Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

The deal has been agreed, subject to Parliament. Mrs May now has the uphill task of selling the deal to MPs. The overwhelming majority who have expressed an opinion including both Remainers and Brexiteers have condemned it. As has President Trump. She will be praying for no further asides from him at the G20 in Buenos Aires.

 

The vote is scheduled for 11 December, after a five-day debate. The Government’s tactic is to rely on Mrs May’s deal being the only one on offer, the alternative being the supposed abyss of a no-deal. The risk to this strategy is that Brexiteers expose the choice as being false and that Mrs May should go back to Brussels and renegotiate. The EU stands ready to reaffirm they will not accept any other deal to cut off this option.

The Treasury and the Bank of England have cranked up their economic and financial models again to forecast maximum disruption in the event Parliament fails to support Mrs May’s deal. However, in the Commons, the Treasury backed off from its responsibility for its post-Brexit forecasts, saying it was based on analysis involving a wide range of government departments. One is left wondering why the Treasury Secretary felt unable to give it his wholehearted support.

The Bank of England has been less delicate in its approach, by claiming we are all doomed. The result after only one day of airing its forecast is a loss of public credibility for the Bank and particularly for Mark Carney, its Governor.

The frighteners extend to a hodgepodge of claims of many things vital to life and employment, put together by government quangos. Shortages of medicines, transport disruption, chemicals for water purification and many more are all documented in eighty different official papers. The deceit is to assume these supplies are provided at an inter-governmental level, and not by profit-seeking businesses, which would surely do everything in their power to secure continuing sales. The Port of Calais is expected to cut off its nose despite its face and turn away traffic.

This line of propaganda seems to be an irresistible line of attack for the Government, accustomed to frightening the populous into a preferred course of action. This is despite the failure of this tactic ahead of the Brexit referendum, when the public decided it was a stinking rat.

What is the deal, and why the fuss?

Britain leaves the EU on 29 March next year and under Mrs May’s plan enters an implementation period when there is no change in current trade arrangements, until at least 1 January 2020. After that, if the trade agreement is not in place (highly unlikely – it takes years to get the EU to agree to trade deals), Britain can either extend the implementation period for a time, or the backstop on the Irish border will be implemented.

The backstop ensures the Irish border would remain open to EU trade, as it is today, until a trade agreement is finally agreed and implemented. Until then, either the whole of the UK continues to be in the customs union, or Northern Ireland alone remains in it, effectively putting a border down the Irish Sea. The backstop, if it is implemented, can only be turned off “when we have fulfilled our commitments on the Irish Border.”

The agreement states that both the EU and the UK will use best endeavours to reach a trade agreement. But given it can be blocked by EU member countries which are not a party to the agreement, this reassurance must be worthless. Even before the ink was dry, Spain forced concessions on Gibraltar, and President Macron of France made it clear France would withhold its consent to a trade agreement if French fishing vessels were denied fishing rights in British waters.

The problem with the agreement is that by not agreeing, EU member states can ensure, in the words of Boris Johnson, Britain remains a vassal state. Worse than that, with this agreement it is a zombie state, a walking-dead captive of the customs union.

Even the Remainers don’t like it, because it is as plain as a pikestaff that Britain is in a far worse position with this agreement than it would be remaining in the EU. It is chained to the customs union with no influence over the regulations imposed upon it. Accordingly, Remainers of all parties are united in the call for a second referendum, which they hope will reverse the first, allowing Britain to remain as a full member of the EU. But to concede a second referendum would be unprecedented, and also an admission of failure by the government. Furthermore, it would take months to go through Parliament, time which it does not have. With no practical alternative, many prominent Remainers are expected to vote against the agreement.

For the Brexiteers, it is already an admission of failure, particularly since the Prime Minister always refused to consider a Plan B. Britain has agreed unconditionally to pay the EU £39bn as the divorce settlement and will continue to pay into Brussels the annual tribute of roughly £9bn until the new trade terms are agreed and implemented (which could be never). While the agreement generally limits the European Court of Justice’s powers to adjudicate on trade and related matters, it means Britain does not have control over future trade arrangements during implementation and backstop periods, and it will be impossible for Britain to strike her own trade deals until that time has passed. Hence President Trump’s remarks.

We have confirmation it is Hotel California: you can check out but never leave. The deal is so unpopular that already the media are saying it will never get through Parliament. The Daily Telegraphhas aggregated various sources of information to estimate 221 MPs will vote for it and 418 against. But much can change in a short fortnight.

Let us look at it from Downing Street’s point of view, to try to understand the Government’s strategy. 96 Conservative MPs have said they will vote against, out of a parliamentary party of 314 (excluding Speaker Bercow). The Democratic Unionist Party, with ten MPs who provide the Conservatives with their slim Commons majority, have also vowed to vote against it. The Labour Party with 257 MPs have said they will vote against it, but there are perhaps 60 Labour rebels. The Scottish National Party has 35 MPs, who will also vote against it. Liberal Democrats, with 12 are probably against it, but may not be united on the threat of no deal.

That leaves 216 Conservatives likely to support the Government (including 94 Ministers), perhaps 240 after the whips have done their work. 74 MPs from the other parties are then required, at least 60 of which must be Labour MPs. It is worth recalling that 64 Labour MPs defied the Labour whip over an amendment tabled to remain in the customs union last December, close to the number of Labour MPs required to rebel this time for Mrs May to win the vote. And that’s assuming Labour isn’t persuaded to abstain, which would guarantee Mrs May gets it passed by a comfortable margin.

Clearly, the key to success is Labour’s intentions, which is why Downing Street is wooing their MPs. However, two weeks ahead of the vote, talk of a heavy defeat for the government looks, on Downing Street’s likely assessment, wide of the mark.

All this assumes Labour will resist the temptation to topple Mrs May and create havoc for the Tories. That is a big assumption, because it is definitely in Labour’s interest to defeat the government to see what opportunities might arise. Consequently, while the Downing Street assessment may turn out to be too optimistic, the Brexit camp cannot afford to be complacent.

Brexiteer tactics

The Brexiteers will concentrate on mustering as much support as possible to reject the proposed agreement. They already have the ten DUP members on side, and 96 Conservatives who have said they will vote against. They need to work on the other 218 Conservative MPs, of which 94 are ministers, leaving a pool of 124 possible votes.

It would help their case enormously if more Brexit-supporting ministers resigned from the government ahead of the vote, so they are likely to be privately encouraged to do so. This would benefit the Brexit cause by fatally undermining the Government’s claim that the agreement is in the spirit of Brexit.

Brexiteers will also have to build cross-party alliances. Above all, they must come up with an alternative strategy acceptable to both Brexiteers and Remainers to force the Government to return to Brussels for better terms, despite Brussels saying the only alternative is no deal.

To achieve the necessary parliamentary support, Brexiteers are likely to focus on the least contentious issue, being the failure to achieve total parliamentary sovereignty in the draft agreement. Even Jeremy Corbin and others on the far left of the Labour Party can agree on this, because they want to be free from all Brussels regulations so that they can nationalise and subsidise unionised industries.

Sovereignty is the one issue the Government cannot argue convincingly, which is why it deflects the issue into one of taking control of immigration. The economic effects, which are a transitional problem, are less important to the bigger picture, but are more immediate to the electorate. For these reasons the Government is focusing on the economic effects, promoting hypothetical problems that grab the headlines and divert attention from the sovereignty issue.

The scope for half-truths and downright deception is enormous and is being exploited by both the Government and allegedly independent analysts. In the last few days, we have been told that stockpiling food has left Amazon short of warehouse space. This follows earlier assertions from Barclays Bank research that extra tariffs on food and drink imports could cost £9.3bn per annum, leading to higher food prices.

This must assume the Chancellor imposes, Trump-like, yet higher import tariffs on food than the ones being dropped on a no-deal Brexit. It might assume sterling will crash (we’ve heard that one before) but ignores the possibility the euro will fall even more. These scare stories are easy to counter and should be given no credence, but the media is always more likely to take as gospel truth the information spoon-fed to it by background government briefings, while questioning reasoned argument from Brexiteers with relative scepticism.

Mrs May’s future

Press reports suggest that Downing Street believes that if the vote is not passed, Mrs May could probably survive if it is rejected by less than a hundred votes. Any more than that, and she is toast.

This is probably too simplistic, and ignores the fact that David Cameron immediately resigned when he lost the Brexit referendum, irrespective of margins. It also relies on the ten DUP MPs continuing to give her a majority, which they have already withdrawn. If she relies on Labour votes, having failed to get sufficient support from her own party (which Downing Street is already doing), she will be ejected whatever the outcome. For the moment, everyone is being very polite, saying she has admirable qualities of perseverance and determination against all odds. And don’t we all love a fighter. This can rapidly elide into being pig-headed, domineering and deliberately misleading.

Act too early, and MPs who wish to ditch her will be accused of disloyalty and naked ambition. Furthermore, Brexiteers do not have control of the agenda. For these reasons, rival candidates for the leadership remain in the shadows. But they will be watching for that change of emphasis, which is likely to come in the wake of the Commons vote, if not before.

The only way Mrs May can save herself and the integrity of the Conservative Party is to cancel the debate and tell Brussels it simply won’t wash. She must remind them of the consequences of their rejection of David Cameron’s demands, and tell them they will have to come up with better terms, otherwise it is no deal.

Will she do it? We shall see. She has some leverage, if she can understand it. Brussels is bust and needs money urgently. The knock-on effects of a no deal might be unpredictable for the UK, but, and this is the point few have taken on board, it would be catastrophic for the EU.

 END
GERMANY/DEUTSCHE BANK
The offices of Deutsche bank’s compliance chief as well as 5 board members.  The stock hits an all timelow
(courtesy zerohedge)

Deutsche Bank Compliance Chief, 5 Board Member Offices Raided As Stock Hits All Time Low

Reeling from a Morgan Stanley downgrade of European Banks and a second day of raids on its Frankfurt headquarters, Deutsche Bank shares declined by another 3% on Friday to a new all time low just above €8, bringing the YTD loss to 50%.

DB

In what appears to be the latest in a string of financial crimes and scandals that have generated some $18 billion in fines since the financial crisis, prosecutors are investigating whether two employees in the bank’s wealth management division helped clients set up accounts in offshore tax havens, including the British Virgin Islands, and possibly allowed criminals to move money through these shelters, some of which may have flowed through accounts at the bank (other employees may also have been involved, prosecutors said). According to Frankfurt prosecutors, the investigation, which stems from revelations contained in the ‘Panama Papers’, covers behavior that stretched through this year, meaning that it could become a blemish on the performance of the bank’s newly-installed CEO Christian Sewing.

Before becoming CEO, Sewing was responsible for the bank’s wealth management division as head of its retail bank, a position he held from 2015 to when he was offered the CEO job in April.

DB

According to the Financial Times the illicit transactions that two DB wealth management employees neglected to flag in 2016 alone stood at €311 million ($353 million), but people familiar with the case is almost certainly much larger, given that the suspicious activity continued for five years. The activity under investigation allegedly began in 2013.

As the raids continue, more details about the bank’s alleged misconduct are trickling out. According to the Financial Times, the DB unit that’s emerged as the focus of the investigation is a 100% owned subsidiary of DB that has been operating since 2010.

The Deutsche unit at the core of the case is called Regula Limited, domiciled in Road Town on the British Virgin Islands, a person familiar with the matter told the Financial Times, confirming a report by German daily “Süddeutsche Zeitung,” which was one of the newspapers that led the reporting about the “Panama Papers” in 2016.

Regula has been listed as a 100 per cent-owned subsidiary in Deutsche Bank’s annual reports since 2010 and is classified as an “other enterprise” in its most recent annual report. Deutsche sold the entity in March 2018, according to the person.

DB has insisted that it had provided prosecutors with all the materials they had requested as part of their investigation, and that the bank was surprised by the raids.

But if there’s anything DB watchers should take away from the second day of raids, it’s that prosecutors raided the office of DB board member and head of compliance Sylvie Matherat. This follows reports earlier in the week that Matherat and another DB executive were on the verge of being pushed out. Matherat generated headlines last year when she spoke out in an interview last year about the difficulty in improving the bank’s fragmented compliance systems (in addition to Matherat, the offices of four other executives were also raided).

Matherat has told associates she might need to prepare to leave the bank, and has expressed unhappiness with what she described to some associates as constraints to improving financial-crime controls and mending Deutsche Bank’s relationships with regulators, some of the people say.

Matherat has told associates she might need to prepare to leave the bank, and has expressed unhappiness with what she described to some associates as constraints to improving financial-crime controls and mending Deutsche Bank’s relationships with regulators, some of the people say.

Given the deeply involved nature of the investigation, it’s increasingly likely that the bank will need a scapegoat: Will it be Matherat?

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Russia/UKRAINE

The situation between Russian and the Ukraine is getting worse by the minute.  It is good that Putin is showing restraint.  The Ukraine bans Russian men from the country but Russia will not reciprocate

(courtesy zerohedge)

Ukraine Bans Russian Men From The Country; Russia

Says Will Not Reciprocate

We don’t expect the West to denounce xenophobia and prejudice on this one: officials in Kiev have announced that Russian men will be barred from the country following the imposition of martial law this week.

The ruling targets men aged 16-60, who will no longer be able to enter the country, with the only exceptions being for “humanitarian cases” like funerals or an emergency. Martial law is in effect in 10 Ukrainian regions until December 26 following the Russian Navy seizing three Ukrainian ships and 24 sailors in the Black Sea last Sunday as the crew stands accused of “dangerous maneuvers” in Russian territorial water.

Ukrainian-Russian border near Hoptivka, Kharkiv region, eastern Ukraine, via the APThe new restrictions connected to the martial law decree from early this week were announced following a meeting between President Petro Poroshenko and the country’s top security officials and border guard chiefs in Kiev. The president said in a public statement that the policy aimed to prevent the further formation of “private armies” in Ukraine — a reference to pro-Russian militia groups and separatist organizations Kiev has fought since 2014.

A sizable amount of the Ukrainian population has relatives living just across the Russian border and vice versa. These families will be most impacted by the travel ban especially over the holidays. Currently direct flights between the two countries have been suspended by Kiev authorities, which along with the Russian travel ban will have a huge impact, given that 1.5 million Russian nationals visited Ukraine last year alone, according to official statistics published by Unian news agency, cited in the BBC.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova reacted to the ban by assuring that Moscow had no plans to “mirror” the measure as this “could result in full madness”.

Петро Порошенко

@poroshenko

Україна ввела обмеження щодо в’їзду громадян РФ чоловічої статі віком від 16 до 60, щоб РФ не формувала в Україні загони “приватних” армій, які насправді є представниками Збройних Сил РФ. Щоб не дати росіянам здійснити в Україні ті операції, які вони планували ще у 2014 році.

The ban will apply to all entry points to Ukraine, especially along the 1200+ miles of the Ukrainian-Russian land border, which is enforced by a system of Ukrainian border fortifications — through the ambitious project akin to a “border wall” is still in development and unfinished. Further details of how security officials plan to enforce the ban have yet to be revealed.

In mid-September, one Ukrainian province in the western part of the country issued an official ban on all Russian-language books, films, broadcasts and songs. A regional council had voted to “impose a moratorium on the public broadcast and use of Russian-language content” until Russian forces “withdraw” from Ukraine, however unlikely it is to actually enforce.

Early this week in a televised interview Poroshenko condemned what he described as a rapidly increased Russian military presence on the border with Ukraine, saying, “The number of [Russian] tanks at bases located along our border has tripled,” according to the AFP.

The Ukrainian president added that “the number of units that have been deployed along our border – what’s more, along its full length – has grown dramatically.” He ultimately concluded that the military buildup meant that the country is “under threat of full-scale war with Russia.”

But Kiev’s latest anti-Russian travel ban is sure to only stoke tensions dramatically, especially as it takes the conflict far beyond the mere political domain, targeting language and identity in a Balkanized sense, and dividing families in the process.

 

end
the background on the conflict between the Ukrainians and the Russians in the Kerch Strait
(courtesy Pat Buchanan/Unz Review)

Buchanan: Is Putin The Provocateur In The Kerch

Crisis?

Authored by Patrick Buchanan via The Unz Review,

On departure for the G-20 gathering in Buenos Aires, President Donald Trump canceled his planned weekend meeting with Vladimir Putin, citing as his reason the Russian military’s seizure and holding of three Ukrainian ships and 24 sailors.

But was Putin really the provocateur in Sunday’s naval clash outside Kerch Strait, the Black Sea gateway to the Sea of Azov?

Or was the provocateur Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko?

First, a bit of history.

In 2014, after the pro-Russian regime in Kiev was ousted in a coup, and a pro-NATO regime installed with U.S. backing, Putin detached and annexed Crimea, for centuries the homeport of Russia’s Black Sea fleet.

With the return of Crimea, Russia now occupied both sides of Kerch Strait. And this year, Russia completed a 12-mile bridge over the strait and Putin drove the first truck across.

The Sea of Azov became a virtual Russian lake, access to which was controlled by Russia, just as access to the Black Sea is controlled by Turkey.

While the world refused to recognize the new reality, Russia began to impose rules for ships transiting the strait, including 48 hours notice to get permission.

Ukrainian vessels, including warships, would have to notify Russian authorities before passing beneath the Kerch Strait Bridge into the Sea of Azov to reach their major port of Mariupol.

Sunday, two Ukrainian artillery ships and a tug, which had sailed out of Odessa in western Ukraine, passed through what Russia now regards as its territorial waters off Crimea and the Kerch Peninsula. Destination: Mariupol.

The Ukrainian vessels refused to obey Russian directives to halt.

Russian warships fired at the Ukrainian vessels and rammed the tug. Three Ukrainian sailors were wounded, and 24 crew taken into custody.

Russia’s refusal to release the sailors was given by President Trump as the reason for canceling his Putin meeting.

Moscow contends that Ukraine deliberately violated the new rules of transit that Kiev had previously observed, to create an incident.

For his part, Putin has sought to play the matter down, calling it a “border incident, nothing more.”

“The incident in the Black Sea was a provocation organized by the authorities and maybe the president himself. … (Poroshenko’s) rating is falling … so he needed to do something.”

Maxim Eristavi, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, seems to concur:

“Poroshenko wants to get a head start in his election campaign. He is playing the card of commander in chief, flying around in military uniform, trying to project that he is in control.”

Our U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, however, accused Russia of “outlaw actions” against the Ukrainian vessels and “an arrogant act the international community will never accept.”

Predictably, our interventionists decried Russian “aggression” and demanded we back up our Ukrainian “ally” and send military aid.

Why was Poroshenko’s ordering of gunboats into the Sea of Azov, while ignoring rules Russia set down for passage, provocative?

Because Poroshenko, whose warships had previously transited the strait, had to know the risk that he was taking and that Russia might resist.

Why would he provoke the Russians?

Because, with his poll numbers sinking badly, Poroshenko realizes that unless he does something dramatic, his party stands little chance in next March’s elections.

Immediately after the clash, Poroshenko imposed martial law in all provinces bordering Russia and the Black Sea, declared an invasion might be imminent, demanded new Western sanctions on Moscow, called on the U.S. to stand with him, and began visiting army units in battle fatigues.

Some Westerners want even more in the way of confronting Putin.

Adrian Karatnycky of the Atlantic Council urges us to build up U.S. naval forces in the Black Sea, send anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles to Ukraine, ratchet up sanctions on Russia, threaten to expel her from the SWIFT system of international bank transactions, and pressure Europe to cancel the Russians’ Nord Stream 2 and South Stream oil pipelines into Europe.

But there is a larger issue here.

Why is control of the Kerch Strait any of our business?

Why is this our quarrel, to the point that U.S. strategists want us to confront Russia over a Crimean Peninsula that houses the Livadia Palace that was the last summer residence of Czar Nicholas II?

If Ukraine had a right to break free of Russia in 1991, why do not Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk have the right to break free of Kiev?

Why are we letting ourselves be dragged into everyone’s quarrels — from who owns the islets in the South China Sea, to who owns the Senkaku and Southern Kurils; and from whether Transnistria had a right to secede from Moldova, to whether South Ossetia and Abkhazia had the right to break free of Georgia, when Georgia broke free of Russia?

Do the American people care a fig for these places? Are we really willing to risk war with Russia or China over who holds title to them?

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

WIKILEAKS/USA/ECUADOR/THE GLOBE

This will be scary if the Ecuador embassy releases Assange and he is tried in the USA

(courtesy Craig Roberts)

 

PCR Fumes “There Is No Case Against Assange, So Lies

Replace Evidence”

Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

Julian Assange is not guilty of any crime. But Washington is going to convict him anyway. Documents are being fabricated to show that Assange met inside the Ecuadoran Embassy in London with Paul Manafort and some Russians.

The logs of all visits to the Embassy have been released and show no such meetings.

This latest fabrication was dumped on the public by the Guardian, formerly a leftwing newspaper but today a MI6 asset. Luke Harding who was leaked the fake documents is either extremely gullible or himself a MI6 asset.

The purpose of the leak is to create in the public’s mind that Assange was involved in “Russiagate” along with Trump and Putin.The fact that no evidence has been found that Russiagate exists except as a made-up allegation to justify a special prosecutor to investigate President Trump has not stopped the continued use of this canard.

Washington and London are relying on the public’s insouciance to shield their shamelessness.

Julian Assange’s life has been ruined because he was a professional journalist who told the truth instead of serving as a shill for the ruling elite. Now the intention is to give him a show trial and to convict him without evidence, relying on presstitutes to spread fake evidence that a meeting that did not occur occurred and with no explanation of how such a meeting if it had actually occurred would constitute espionage.

Former British ambassador Craig Murry explains the shameful use of government power against an innocent person that has been unfolding under our eyes for the last six years. What is being done to Assange is as bad as any of Stalin’s show trials and is worse because it is happening in full view in front of Western Democracy.

Here is Ambassador Murray:

November 27, 2018

Assange Never Met Manafort. Luke Harding and the Guardian Publish Still More Blatant MI6 Lies

By Craig Murray

The right wing Ecuadorean government of President Moreno continues to churn out its production line of fake documents regarding Julian Assange, and channel them straight to MI6 mouthpiece Luke Harding of the Guardian.

Amazingly, more Ecuadorean Government documents have just been discovered for the Guardian, this time spy agency reports detailing visits of Paul Manafort and unspecified “Russians” to the Embassy. By a wonderful coincidence of timing, this is the day after Mueller announced that Manafort’s plea deal was over.

The problem with this latest fabrication is that Moreno had already released the visitor logs to the Mueller inquiry. Neither Manafort nor these “Russians” are in the visitor logs.

This is impossible. The visitor logs were not kept by Wikileaks, but by the very strict Ecuadorean security. Nobody was ever admitted without being entered in the logs. The procedure was very thorough. To go in, you had to submit your passport (no other type of document was accepted). A copy of your passport was taken and the passport details entered into the log. Your passport, along with your mobile phone and any other electronic equipment, was retained until you left, along with your bag and coat. I feature in the logs every time I visited.

There were no exceptions. For an exception to be made for Manafort and the “Russians” would have had to be a decision of the Government of Ecuador, not of Wikileaks, and that would be so exceptional the reason for it would surely have been noted in the now leaked supposed Ecuadorean “intelligence report” of the visits. What possible motive would the Ecuadorean government have for facilitating secret unrecorded visits by Paul Manafort? Furthermore it is impossible that the intelligence agency – who were in charge of the security – would not know the identity of these alleged “Russians”.

Previously Harding and the Guardian have published documents faked by the Moreno government regarding a diplomatic appointment to Russia for Assange of which he had no knowledge. Now they follow this up with more documents aimed to provide fictitious evidence to bolster Mueller’s pathetically failed attempt to substantiate the story that Russia deprived Hillary of the Presidency.

My friend William Binney, probably the world’s greatest expert on electronic surveillance, former Technical Director of the NSA, has stated that it is impossible the DNC servers were hacked, the technical evidence shows it was a download to a directly connected memory stick. I knew the US security services were conducting a fake investigation the moment it became clear that the FBI did not even themselves look at the DNC servers, instead accepting a report from the Clinton linked DNC “security consultants” Crowdstrike.

I would love to believe that the fact Julian has never met Manafort is bound to be established. But I fear that state control of propaganda may be such that this massive “Big Lie” will come to enter public consciousness in the same way as the non-existent Russian hack of the DNC servers.

Assange never met Manafort. The DNC emails were downloaded by an insider. Assange never even considered fleeing to Russia. Those are the facts, and I am in a position to give you a personal assurance of them.

I can also assure you that Luke Harding, the Guardian, Washington Post and New York Times have been publishing a stream of deliberate lies, in collusion with the security services.

I am not a fan of Donald Trump. But to see the partisans of the defeated candidate (and a particularly obnoxious defeated candidate) manipulate the security services and the media to create an entirely false public perception, in order to attempt to overturn the result of the US Presidential election, is the most astonishing thing I have witnessed in my lifetime.

Plainly the government of Ecuador is releasing lies about Assange to curry favour with the security establishment of the USA and UK, and to damage Assange’s support prior to expelling him from the Embassy. He will then be extradited from London to the USA on charges of espionage.

Assange is not a whistleblower or a spy – he is the greatest publisher of his age, and has done more to bring the crimes of governments to light than the mainstream media will ever be motivated to achieve. That supposedly great newspaper titles like the Guardian, New York Times and Washington Post are involved in the spreading of lies to damage Assange, and are seeking his imprisonment for publishing state secrets, is clear evidence that the idea of the “liberal media” no longer exists in the new plutocratic age. The press are not on the side of the people, they are an instrument of elite control.

*  *  *

Craig Murray is an author, broadcaster and human rights activist. He was British Ambassador to Uzbekistan from August 2002 to October 2004 and Rector of the University of Dundee from 2007 to 2010.

 

end

7  OIL ISSUES

Russia is comfortable with prices at 50 dollars or below but not the USA as the huge junk debt of oil drillers will certainly weigh on them

(courtesy zerohedge)

WTI Tumbles Below $50 – Biggest Monthly Plunge

Since 2008

Oil tanked back below $50 this morning and is headed for its biggest monthly decline in 10 years – less than a month after Goldman herded its clients into the collapsing assets, predicting Brent would hit $80 by the end of the year – as Russia reiterated it’s comfortable with current prices, just a week before it meets with OPEC to discuss possible production curbs.

“As things stand, the Russians and Saudis are still far from being on the same page over the finer details of looming output restrictions,” Stephen Brennock, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, wrote in a report.

“Against this backdrop, the most likely outcome of next week’s OPEC meeting is a fudge.”

Crude’s next leg hinges on Saudi Arabia’s dilemma of busting the budget or angering Trump, but as prices plunge, China is grabbing every barrel it can get.

November is now the 2nd worst month for WTI since Jan 1991…

Meanwhile, all eyes are on energy junk bonds: as Goldman wrote overnight, “WTI below $50/bbl will unquestionably constrain risk appetite in the HY market”

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

 

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1366 DOWN .0027 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL RED

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 113.52  UP 0.101 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2758 DOWN   0.0026  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3314  UP .0039 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 27 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1366/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 20-.75 POINTS OR 0.81%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 55.72 POINTS OR 0.21% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  1.48% /EUROPEAN BOURSES DEEPLY IN THE RED 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED  UP 88.46 POINTS OR 0.40%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED RED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 55.72 POINTS OR 0.21% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.75  POINTS OR 0.81%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN  1.48%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 88.46 POINTS OR 0.40%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1222.50

silver:$14.30

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.01% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.31 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 96.96 UP 18  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.83% DOWN 0    in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.09%  UP 1  BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.50% DOWN 1  IN basis point yield from THURSDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.21 UP 1   POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 171 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.31%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.90% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1323 DOWN .0070 or 70 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 113.55 UP  0 .133 OR 13 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2772 DOWN .0012( POUND DOWN 12 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 9 basis points to 1.3284

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.9605-  ON SHORE  (YUAN DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9477(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.2372

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.09%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 3.02 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.32 DOWN 0 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.17 UP 39 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 58.71 POINTS OR 0.83%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 40.99 POINTS  OR 0.31%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 2.33 POINTS OR 0.24%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 21.70 POINTS OR 0.24%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP: 29.37 POINTS OR 0.15%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 51.10 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 59.81 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    66.97  THE CROSS HIGHER BY .72 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER by 72 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.2372 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.31 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :50.65

 

BRENT:59.16

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.99%..

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.29%/.

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1316 ( DOWN 76 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:113.52 UP .108 (YEN DOWN 11 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.19 UP 42 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2745 DOWN 40 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.2153

the Russian rouble:  66.99 DOWN .74 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 74 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3296 DOWN 21 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9605  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9487 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.31%

 

The Dow closed  UP 199.62 POINTS OR 0.79%

NASDAQ closed UP 57.45  points or 0.79% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  18.21 CLOSED DOWN  0.58

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.738%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Fed & FOMO Rescue Stocks But Bond Yields, Bitcoin, & Black Gold Collapse

Trump better deliver…

v…

 

China stocks eked out a modest gain on the week thanks to a late Friday liftathon ahead of this weekend’s uncertainty…

 

But Shanghai Composite closed down on the month (2nd month lower in a row)

 

European markets were oddly quiet all week aside from the buying panic at the open on Monday…(but Italy handily outperformed)

But on the month, a mixed bag with Italy and Spain green and the rest of the majors red…

 

US equities soared on the week, with Nasdaq up 5.6% leading – the best week since Dec 2011…

 

Trannies soared in November and thanks to the last few days of Powell and Trade hope, stocks were rescued from another ugly month…

 

On the day, equity moves were dominated by optimistic headlines from Buenos Aires from both Trump and Xi sources…

 

Best week for S&P since Dec 2011 and barekly managed to get above its 50DMA…

 

November was all about two big short-squeezes…

 

Goldman Sachs plunged again today to fresh 2-year lows, erasing all post-Trump gains – worst month since Sept 2011

 

FANG Stocks closed lower for the 3rd month in a row…(longest losing streak since Feb 2016)… despite panic-buying this last week…best week since January

 

Credit markets tumbled for the 2nd month in a row – the worst 2-month drop since Jan 2016 for HY and IG (wider for 4 straight months). IG Credit compressed 5bps this week – best week since June (and HY CDX biggest weekly spread compression since February).

 

Bonds and Stocks were bid in the last hour today…

 

Extending their divergence post-Powell…

 

On the week, 2s and 30s are unchanged with the belly lower in yield…

 

Treasury yields tumbled in November – 10Y yields dropped over 13bps – the biggest monthly drop since Aug 2017

10Y Yields closed the week with a 3.00% handle…

 

The short-end of the UST yield curve collapsed in November (biggest flattening since March)…7th flatter month in the last 9 (note that the curve accelerated its flattening post 10/17 FOMC Mins from Sept, and after the 11/08 FOMC statement)…

 

with 2s5s almost inverted

David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie

Nobody seems to see recession as a plausibility for 2019. Even the bears say it’s 2020. Yet — one part of the bond curve (2s/5s) is within 3 bps of inverting, suggesting it could come sooner, not later.

The dollar index ended the month practically unchanged (hovering at its highest since May 2017)

 

It was a serious rollercoaster ride of a week as Powell’s dovishness pummeled the dollar and pre-G20 trade chatter seemed to spark buying…

 

Bitcoin was down for the 5th week in a row but the 37% collapse in November is the worst month since August 2011 (Bitcoin Cash fell 60% on the month as it forked)

 

With Bitcoin back below $4000 to end the week…

 

Copper and Gold managed gains on the month, silver small losses, but crude collapsed…

 

Gold managed to close higher for the 2nd month in a row

 

But was unchanged against the yuan…

 

But WTI collapsed to its worst month since 2008…

 

Blowing back below $50 again today before spurious old news OPEC headlines sparked another ramp…

 

As it seems 5 Oz of Silver for a barrel of WTI Crude was just too much again…

 

Finally, we note that rate-hike expectations for 2019 have now collapsed to less than one!! just 22.25bps for the year (The Fed is still at 3 or 4 hikes)…

And as Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg notes, this hypersensitive market is anything but healthy…

David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie

But a market that is so hitched to every word or nuance a central bank official has to say cannot possibly be viewed as a particularly healthy one.

end

 

 

market trading

 

market data/

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

GE tumbling  again and close to its previous low of $6.66

(courtesy zerohedge)

Here’s Why GE Is Tumbling, Again

It was just this past Monday when GE resumed its plunge after a tentative stabilization, following a research report that questioned the value of GE Capital’s goodwill following the recent bankruptcy of a helicopter leasing company.

And, in a delightful (if not for the few remaining bulls) symmetry, GE is now closing off the week the same way it started it, with its stock sinking after two analysts raised more red flags around the company’s liquidity, while a report said former GE employees were being questioned by federal investigators about its troubled insurance business.

On the sell-side, Deutsche Bank analyst Nicole DeBlase slashed her price target on the stock by more than a third, from $11 to $7, over continuing questions on the industrial conglomerate (and shadow bank’s) liquidity outlook. According to Bloomberg, in DeBlase’s model, GE will likely be able to build up its balance sheet next year with cash flow from its industrial units to around 34 cents a share, assuming economic headwinds don’t worsen in the next three years and debt comes down, she said. Still, the scenario supports a lower price target on the stock, resulting in a new price target of $7.00 (down from $11.00). The bearish “downside case” assumes power unit earnings continue to decline and GE’s other business units are hit by a modest downturn. DeBlase sees the industrial units facing a cash burn of about 21 cents per share next year.  However, unlike some of her even more bearish colleagues, she doesn’t see the company facing a liquidity crisis, “even in this drastic scenario.”

And speaking of her bearish colleagues, GE’s nemesis – JPM analyst Stephen Tusa – who has long been the most bearish GE voice on Wall Street, said commentary from GE’s partner Safran “supported his view that profit and cash flow growth at the aviation segment would be below consensus expectations.”

Adding injury to sellside insult, also on Friday Morning, the Wall Street Journal reported that Federal investigators are questioning former employees of General Electric about details in a legacy insurance business that led to accounting problems at the conglomerate in the past year, and whether the business failed to internally acknowledge worsening results over the years. The employees also said that they were interviewed by government lawyers.

Shares fell as much as 3.7% in pre-market trading in New York, sliding deeper into 7-handle territory and approaching its financial crisis lows of $6.66.

end

Snyder points out 3 things which happened just before the 2008 crisis is happening now

a good read..

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

3 Things That Happened Just Before The 2008 Crisis

Are Happening Again Right Now

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Real estate, oil and the employment numbers are all telling us the same thing, and that is really bad news for the U.S. economy.  It really does appear that economic activity is starting to slow down significantly, but just like in 2008 those that are running things don’t want to admit the reality of what we are facing.  Back then, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke insisted that the U.S. economy was not heading into a recession, and we later learned that a recession had already begun when he made that statement.  And as you will see at the end of this article, current Fed Chair Jerome Powell says that he is “very happy” with how the U.S. economy is performing, but he shouldn’t be so thrilled.

Signs of trouble are everywhere, and we just got several more pieces of troubling news.

Thanks to aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the average rate on a 30 year mortgage is now up to about 4.8 percent.  Just like in 2008, that is killing the housing market and it has us on the precipice of another real estate meltdown.

And some of the markets that were once the hottest in the entire country are leading the way down.  For example, just check out what is happening in Manhattan

In the third quarter, the median price for a one-bedroom Manhattan home was $815,000, down 4% from the same period in 2017. The volume of sales fell 12.7%.

Of course things are even worse at the high end of the market.  Some Manhattan townhouses are selling for millions of dollars less than what they were originally listed for.

Sadly, Manhattan is far from alone.  Pending home sales are down all over the nation.  In October, U.S. pending home sales were down 4.6 percent on a year over year basis, and that was the tenth month in a row that we have seen a decline…

Hope was high for a rebound (after new-home-sales slumped), but that was dashed as pending home sales plunged 2.6% MoM in October (well below the expected 0.5% MoM bounce).

Additionally, Pending Home Sales fell 4.6% YoY – the 10th consecutive month of annual declines…

When something happens for 10 months in a row, I think that you can safely say that a trend has started.

Sales of new homes continue to plummet as well.  In fact, we just witnessed a 12 percent year over year decline for sales of new single family houses last month

Sales of new single-family houses plunged 12% in October, compared to a year ago, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 544,000 houses, according to estimates by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

With an inventory of new houses for sale at 336,000 (seasonally adjusted), the supply at the current rate of sales spiked to 7.4 months, from 6.5 months’ supply in September, and from 5.6 months’ supply a year ago.

If all of this sounds eerily similar to 2008, that is because it is eerily similar to what happened just before and during the last financial crisis.

Up until now, at least the economic optimists could point to the employment numbers as a reason for hope, but not anymore.

In fact, initial claims for unemployment benefits have now risen for three weeks in a row

The number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits increased to a six-month high last week, which could raise concerns that the labor market could be slowing.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 234,000 for the week ended Nov. 24, the highest level since the mid-May, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims have now risen for three straight weeks.

This is also similar to what we witnessed back in 2008.  Jobless claims started to creep up, and then when the crisis fully erupted there was an avalanche of job losses.

And just like 10 years ago, we are starting to see a lot of big corporations start to announce major layoffs.

General Motors greatly upset President Trump when they announced that they were cutting 14,000 jobs just before the holidays, but GM is far from alone.  For a list of some of the large firms that have just announced layoffs, please see my previous article entitled “U.S. Job Losses Accelerate: Here Are 10 Big Companies That Are Cutting Jobs Or Laying Off Workers”.

A third parallel to 2008 is what is happening to the price of oil.

In 2008, the price of oil shot up to a record high before falling precipitously.

Well, now a similar thing has happened.  Earlier this year the price of oil shot up to $76 a barrel, but this week it slid beneath the all-important $50 barrier

Oil’s recent slide has shaved more than a third off its price. Crude fell more than 1% Thursday to as low as $49.41 a barrel. The last time oil closed below $50 was in October 4, 2017. By mid morning the price had climbed back to above $51.

Concerns about oversupply have sent oil prices into a virtual freefall: Crude hit a four-year high above $76 a barrel less than two months ago.

When economists are asked why the price of oil is falling, the primary answer they give is because global economic activity is softening.

And that is definitely the case.  In fact, we just learned that economic confidence in the eurozone has declined for the 11th month in a row

Euro-area economic confidence slipped for an 11th straight month, further damping expectations that the currency bloc will rebound from a sharp growth slowdown and complicating the European Central Bank’s plans to pare back stimulus.

In addition, we just got news that the Swiss and Swedish economies had negative growth in the third quarter.

The economic news is bad across the board, and it appears to be undeniable that a global economic downturn has begun.

But current Fed Chair Jerome Powell insists that he is “very happy about the state of the economy”

Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve’s chairman, has also taken an optimistic line, declaring in Texas recently that he was “very happy about the state of the economy.”

That is just great.  He can be as happy as he wants, and he can continue raising interest rates as he sticks his head in the sand, but nothing is going to change economic reality.

Every single Fed rate hiking cycle in history has ended in a market crash and/or a recession, and this time won’t be any different.

The Federal Reserve created the “boom” that we witnessed in recent years, but we must also hold them responsible for the “bust” that is about to happen.

END
Graham Summers and others have been commenting on the huge 750 billion dollar BBB- rated bonds trading in the USA.  These bonds are one step above junk rated and the last level of the so called investment grade bonds. Of these bonds 150/750 or 20% are already on negative watch.  However Goldman Sachs believes that we should be watching the one grade above these fallen angels:  A rated bonds and now we learn that a record number of A rated bonds are set to be downgraded into the BBB- sector.
very dangerous indeed..
(courtesy zerohedge)

The Cracks Appear: A Record $90 Billion A-Rated

Bonds Downgraded To BBB In Q4

Having written about it for over a year, it sometimes feels like the topic of “fallen angel” bonds, and the danger they present to the broader credit market and overall economy has been beaten to death (see most recently”The $6.4 Trillion Question: How Many BBB Bonds Are About To Be Downgraded“).

But what if the market is focusing on the wrong tier when it comes to the upcoming downgrade deluge? What if instead of BBB credits, whose downgrade risk is, or should be, largely priced in by now (although the recent plunges in GE and PG&E bonds leave many questions unanswered) the real risk is just above the pre-fallen angel tier.

That’s the point made by Goldman Sachs overnight, which argues that while some of the “BBB risks” warrant close monitoring, the bank’s credit analysts “continue to struggle to see any recent developments that would make BBB-rated bonds a canary in a coal mine.

To support their claim that BBB is not the time bomb many others claim it is, Goldman shows that BBB spreads have moved largely in line with their A-rated peers, while demonstrating that BBB bonds have not been an outsized source of weakness in IG.

The bank’s assessment is that in the absence of a full-blown recession, downgrade risk among BBB-rated issuers is likely to remain  contained to structurally and cyclically challenged sectors and firms. As a result, Goldman’s credit analysts view the risks as most pronounced in sectors including Food and Beverage, Retail/Consumer, and Autos. Meanwhile, they see value in other BBB-heavy  sectors such as Banks and Telecom.

In any case, the bottom line is that according to Goldman at least, investors should not be worried about BBB (that said, on Nov 1 Goldman told clients to buy oil; what followed next was the worst month for oil in 10 years).

So if not BBB, then where is the biggest credit risk in the investment grade space?

According to Goldman, the more pronounced risk facing IG investors, is a wave of downgrades among firms rated A and AA.

In our view, these companies are more likely to use their debt capacity for shareholder returns and/or M&A to diversify their businesses. In contrast, firms at the cusp of HY ratings should be inclined to manage their balance sheets more conservatively.

Is Goldman right this time? Who knows, but recent rating actions suggest that the bank may have a point: in the fourth quarter alone, a record $90 billion worth of “pre-fallen angel” were downgraded to BBB from A, and Goldman adds that the risk “remains skewed towards further negative actions.”

But while rating agencies are clearly adding to the pre-fallen angel camp, there is no denying that the big threat is what happens if and when the BBB downgrade deluge begins. As Deutsche Bank calculated last week, when looking at those bonds most at risk of getting junked, $150bn of the $736bn of BBB- bonds are currently on negative watch/outlook with at least one rating agency, and in danger of imminent “junking.”

And while Goldman remains clearly complacent about the BBB space at least until a recession hits, as Deutsche Bank warned last week, even before we get to an economic slowdown – some time in 2020 – or even before the market start pricing the slowdown in, “it feels like the tide might be turning and we start to see fallen angels outpace rising stars over the next year.”

So there you have it: for those who believe a recession is either imminent or will soon be priced in, keep shorting the BBB space. Meanwhile, those who think it will take some more time before the rating agencies filter out the noise, the best place to be short is those “pre-fallen” A bonds who will first become BBBs, before they too join the deluge into the junk space some time around late 2019/early 2020.

end

A powerful 7.2 earthquake whacks Anchorage Alaska

(courtesy zerohedge)

Bottom Of 9th, Bases Loaded, Full Count, Xi On The Mound…

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

…and the Mighty Trump at bat.

The game is on the line.  The entire world is watching. 

The count is 3 & 2.  Xi just missed catching on the corner on those three pitches.

The first strike?  Well that will go do in the history of baseball.  The pitch was so far outside, it was almost a wild pitch, but the Mighty Trump swung and missed.  The ball was so far outside, no one could have hit it.  Was a momentary lapse in judgement? Erratic behavior? Did the Mighty Trump want the glory of a hit rather than forcing the tying run with a walk?  Or was it some brazen strategy to get the upper hand in the mental game with Xi?

We may never know the truth.

The second strike was equally memorable.

A long, long, long, long, long foul ball.  The Mighty Trump got a hold of Xi’s delivery and knocked it out of the park.  Heads are still shaking at how far that ball went, but unfortunately for the Mudville 9, it was just foul.

Xi checks the runners, goes into the wind up, and here’s the pitch…

I have spent this week in constant dialogue with my best contacts on trade.   Here is what I am hearing

  1. President Trump may have a plan, but few are privy to it and there is a lot of concern whether he will stick to a plan or wing it
  2. Many senior people in the Republican party blame weaker than expected showings in some regions as directly attributable to trade policy and tariffs, so there is a push to back away from that strategy.
  3. Allegedly the president’s reaction to GM closing plants was to express a desire to double down rather than back-off (which seems to be supported by @realDonaldTrump tweets.
  4. The Mueller investigation seems to be generating a lot of headlines again (and I’m hearing a lot more going on behind the scenes).  In the past, there is some evidence, the president reacted to Mueller actions and leaks by lashing out with policy of his own.  It does also set the stage for the President wanting a major victory heading into the new year as the Democrats take over the House and fears of a subpoena war take hold.  The President is a firm believer that a good offence is a good defense (which is good for those hoping for a trade).

Now, back to the pitch

I see three basic scenarios playing out

  1. We walk in a run.  The game goes on, possibly to extra innings.  The real-world equivalent is some promise by China to reduce the trade deficit, us putting on hold any new or increased tariffs and both sides agreeing that Intellectual Property rights are important and that both sides agree to focus on a plan to protect intellectual property rights.  and when coupled with a less dogmatically hawkish Fed, we can get the year-end risk on rally, though people will be looking to fade that rally well ahead of January 1st.  This is my highest probability scenario.  I think if we get to the dinner, there is a decent chance some formal progress announcement is made.  How strong that announcement is will determine the strength of the market reaction.
  2. A wild swing and a miss.  Game over – we lose.  In the real-world, we don’t even get to the dinner. We’ve already cancelled on meeting with Putin (for good reason, but it does show, we aren’t afraid to cancel).  We are supposedly bringing Navarro to the dinner, which doesn’t seem like the best idea for a cordial dinner.  Chinese papers seem to be downplaying the G-20 as a whole, and the Trump dinner.  Could something happen between the sides or to the President’s agenda between now and Saturday that derails the event?  Certainly, if the President doesn’t feel we are getting treated as we should, it seems within his nature.  It could even be a good negotiating ploy to show China that we are deadly serious.  Markets will hate that.  I view this as a low probability outcome, but certainly a non-zero probability.
  3. Boom!  A Grand Slam!  A walk-off for the Mighty Trump.  China is being hurt more than we know.  Xi needs to focus on domestic issues and this trade war with the U.S. isn’t helping him as it is hurting the economy and distracting his focus from urgent matters at home.  Leader for life is a good thing until you consider what would end it.  Okay, that was over the top, but he has domestic economy that is declining rapidly, possible credit bubbles and wealth inequality at an extreme scale.  They need soybeans.  They need LNG.  Stop being stubborn and agree to buy what you need form us, your largest consumer.  Intellectual Property protection might be easier to give up on than we believe, as it can be very difficult to prove and at this point China may believe they have enough IP of their won that they want to protect that too.  I don’t think either side has done enough talking to get to this sort of a deal, so it is also a low probability event.

Does it even matter…

It wouldn’t be the first time that the market fixates on something only to decide that it doesn’t really matter in the end.

Maybe a less hawkish Fed, one that is going to slow the pace of hikes and might leave the balance sheet larger (ending QT sooner than later) is all that matters near term for risk?  A little bit depressing if nothing else matters, but making me less depressed about what the market reacts to seems low on the Fed’s or the markets’ list of priorities.

Have a good month-end, many will be happy to see November done, and I look forward to chatting with many of you on Sunday night as futures open.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Former DOJ Official Admits Accepting Bribes From Fugitive Who Masterminded

1MDB Fraud

The DOJ has secured its second guilty plea in its investigation of what it alleges was a $4.5 billion fraud at 1MDB, the Malaysian sovereign wealth fund that was allegedly ransacked by corrupt officials with the help of a Malaysian financier, who allegedly paid bribes and kickbacks to Malaysian officials – including former Prime Minister Najib Razak – so they would keep quiet.

On Friday, George Higginbotham, a lawyer who left the DOJ just three months ago, pleaded guilty to one felony count of “conspiracy to make false statements” over allegations – detailed earlier this month in an ABC News report – that he sent emails lying to an unidentified US bank vouching for the source of funds funneled into the US by Jho Low, the corrupt Malaysian financier whom the DOJ has accused of masterminding the 1MDB fraud (and who met with former Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein and other senior Goldman bankers, despite objections from the bank’s compliance department). Low is presently a fugitive whose whereabouts are unknown, having fled before the DOJ charged him for his role in the fraud earlier this month.

He was already wanted in Malaysia for crimes related to 1MDB. Higginbotham allegedly opened accounts on Low’s behalf inside the US, into which he deposited tens of millions of stolen 1MDB funds.

Goldman

According to Bloomberg, some of the money funneled into the US by Low was intended to sway a DOJ investigation into 1MDB, though BBG didn’t specify how he intended to accomplish this, or which investigation he intended to sway.

Higginbotham allegedly plotted with two co-conspirators to “knowingly” mislead a specific financial institution about “tens of millions of dollars” in funds, according to a criminal complaint. According to BBG, Higginbotham held a “non-lawyer position” at the DOJ.

According to court documents, Low funneled cash through former Fugees member Pras Michel, who then passed money on to a political fundraiser who was identified only as Individual 2, as well as one of the fundraisers’ associates, an investment firm owner identified only as Individual 1.

Prosecutors have alleged that Higginbotham lied in the email “for the purpose of influencing [the bank’s] due diligence in connection with applications for recently opened accounts.”

More details are spelled out in a civil suit filed on Friday which is seeking to seize $74 million from Higginbotham’s law firm, and two other entities.

Higginbotham is the second person to plead guilty in the case after Goldman Partner Tim Leissner, who pleaded guilty earlier this month and agreed to cooperate with federal investigators. In his plea agreement, Leissner alleged a “culture of corruption” at Goldman that helped him circumvent the bank’s compliance department. Other Goldman employees – and possibly the bank itself – have found themselves in the crosshairs of the DOJ, including another banker, Roger Ng, who has been arrested and is being extradited to the US to face money laundering charges. A former co-head of Goldman’s investment bank is also being investigated, and has been temporarily put on leave. Earlier on Friday, Bloomberg reported that the New York Fed has launched its own investigation into how Goldman managed to evade its own compliance controls and move ahead with underwriting the three 1MDB bond deals – which netted the bank a combined $600 million.

SWAMP STORIES

As I have stated to you, trump’s pursuit of a Moscow hotel deal was very legit and Michael Cohen’s plea deal has nothing to do with Russian interference in the election

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump: Pursuit Of Moscow Hotel Deal Was “Very Legit & Cool”

Any hopes that the G-20 summit would offer a brief respite from President Trump’s unceasing stream of tweets were dashed Friday morning when the president mocked allegations that he misrepresented his company’s pursuit of a Trump Tower Moscow deal that came under scrutiny Thursday after former Trump attorney Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to lying to Congress about the timeline of the deal talks (it ultimately fell apart, though talks reportedly continued until the summer of 2017).

Trump again blasted the Mueller probe as a “witch hunt” and said he only “lightly looked at doing a building somewhere in Russia”. Trump added that the fact that he ran his business while running for president was “very legal and very cool.” Trump also pointed out that he put up “zero money, zero guarantees and didn’t do the project.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Oh, I get it! I am a very good developer, happily living my life, when I see our Country going in the wrong direction (to put it mildly). Against all odds, I decide to run for President & continue to run my business-very legal & very cool, talked about it on the campaign trail…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….Lightly looked at doing a building somewhere in Russia. Put up zero money, zero guarantees and didn’t do the project. Witch Hunt!

Trump told reporters on Thursday that Cohen was lying to shave years off a “lengthy” prison sentence, and that he had been entirely truthful about the Trump Tower Moscow deal – something that his lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, confirmed during an interview with the New York Times. Giuliani said Trump answered questions about the project posed by Mueller in a set of written answers he provided to the investigation last week.

But more salacious details about the negotiations have surfaced, including a Buzzfeed report claiming that the Trump Organization had planned to gift a $50 million penthouse at the tower to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

 

end

I think I has seen just about everything with this bombshell.  The FBI raids the home of the Uranium one Whistleblower, Cain and seized copies of the documents already given to the Inspector General Horowitz who then delivered the stuff to AG sessions.  The raid was in total violation of the Whistleblower out

this is escalating to the highest degree…

(courtesy zerohedge)

FBI Raids Home Of New Clinton Foundation, Uranium One Whistleblower

The FBI conducted a six-hour raid on the home of a recognized Justice Department whistleblower who had confidentially submitted documents related to the Clinton Foundation and Uranium One to a government watchdog, according to the Daily Caller, citing the whistleblower’s attorney.

The Justice Department’s inspector general was informed that the documents show that federal officials failed to investigate potential criminal activity regarding former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the Clinton Foundation and Rosatom, the Russian company that purchased Uranium One, a document reviewed by The Daily Caller News Foundation alleges.

The delivered documents also show that then-FBI Director Robert Mueller failed to investigate allegations of criminal misconduct pertaining to Rosatom and to other Russian government entities attached to Uranium One, the document reviewed by TheDCNF alleges. Mueller is now the special counsel investigating whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russia during the 2016 election. –Daily Caller

The bureau raided my client to seize what he legally gave Congress about the Clinton Foundation and Uranium One,” said the whistleblower’s lawyer, Michael Socarras – adding that he considered the FBI raid on his client, Dennis Nathan Cain, an “outrageous disregard” of whistleblower protections.

Cain – a former FBI contractor, was faced with sixteen federal agents during the November 19 raid on his Union Bridge, Maryland home, according to Socarras. The raid was authorized on November 15 after federal magistrate Stephanie A. Gallagher of the US District Court for Baltimore signed a court order.

The special agent who led the raid alleged that Cain possessed stolen federal property, and demanded entry to his home, Socarras added.

“On Nov. 19, the FBI conducted court authorized law enforcement activity in the Union Bridge, Maryland area,” said FBI spokesman Dave Fitz, adding that the agency had “no further comment.”

Cain told the agents at his doorstop that he was a recognized and protected whistleblower under the Intelligence Community Whistleblower Protection Act, and that DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz had recognized his status, according to Cain’s attorney.

Cain further told the FBI agent the potentially damaging classified information had been properly transmitted to the Senate and House Intelligence committees as permitted under the act, Socarras said. The agent immediately directed his agents to begin a sweep of the suburban home, anyway.

Frightened and intimidated, Cain promptly handed over the documents, Socarras told TheDCNF. Yet even after surrendering the information to the FBI, the agents continued to rummage through the home for six hours. –Daily Caller

After asking and getting my approval to do so, DOJ IG Michael Horowitz had a member of his staff physically take Mr. Cain’s classified document disclosure to the House and Senate Intelligence committees,” Socarras told the Caller, adding “For the bureau to show up at Mr. Cain’s home suggesting that those same documents are stolen federal property, and then proceed to seize copies of the same documents after being told at the house door that he is a legally protected whistleblower who gave them to Congress, is an outrageous disregard of the law.” 

According to Socarras, Cain came across “potentially explosive information while working for an FBI contractor,” after which he met with a senior member of Horowitz’s office at a church close to the White House, where he delivered a cache of documents.

Cain sat in a pew with a hoodie and sun glasses, Socarras said. Cain held a double-sealed envelope containing a flash drive with the documents. The IG official met him and, without saying a word, took the pouch over Cain’s shoulder and left. –Daily Caller

The Whistleblower Protection law requires the Inspector General to share potentially damaging information with the attorney general, who at the time was Jeff Sessions. According to Socarras, two law enforcement officials directed the documents to the Senate and House Intelligence committees for review, which were hand delivered by an IG official. 

“I cannot believe the Bureau informed the federal magistrate who approved the search warrant that they wanted to search the home of an FBI whistleblower to seize the information that he confidentially disclosed to the IG and Congress,” said Socarras. 

The FBI has yet to discuss the matter with Cain’s attorney despite the raid.

“After the raid, and having received my name and phone number from Mr. Cain as his lawyer, an FBI agent actually called my client directly to discuss his seized electronics,” said Socarras. “Knowingly bypassing the lawyer of a represented client is serious misconduct.

end
SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
@realDonaldTrump: Based on the fact that the ships and sailors have not been returned to Ukraine from Russia, I have decided it would be best for all parties concerned to cancel my previously scheduled meeting in Argentina with President Vladimir Putin. I look forward to a meaningful Summit again as soon as this situation is resolved!
 
China factory growth unexpectedly stalls in November
The official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 50.0 in November from 50.2 in October,
 
Today is month end and Friday.  Traders and money managers want to mark up their biggest holdings to boost November performance.  Stocks are grossly overbought on a trading basis.  Manipulators are back in control of the market as real sellers have taken a breather.  The usual suspects will buy dips and try to keep stocks as high as possible into the close.  The late decline on Thursday suggests that stocks are very tired and the rally was largely the work of traders and manipulators.
 
The G20 results will greatly impact trading on Monday.  A US-China trade deal will boost stocks on Monday.  If there is no deal, look out below!  Unless someone has inside info, there is no reason to have trading exposure over the weekend.
 
The circumstances imply that the usual suspects will try to boost stocks during the session.  But the last hour is a gamble.  Investors, trying to embellish November performance, could be hindered by traders and operators reducing their exposure during the final thirty minutes of trading.
 
Soybeans declined on Thursday, even though there were two huge spikes upward (the second spike was on the WSJ report).  Soybeans rescinded both spikes.  Beans would soar on any US-China trade deal.

realDonaldTrump: Did you ever see an investigation more in search of a crime? At the same time Mueller and the Angry Democrats aren’t even looking at the atrocious, and perhaps subversive, crimes that were committed by Crooked Hillary Clinton and the Democrats. A total disgrace!
 
Michael Cohen pleads guilty to lying to Congress in new deal with Mueller in Trump-Russia probe
[About Moscow Trump Tower project]
 
Rudy Giuliani: It is hardly coincidental that the Special Counsel once again files a charge just as the President is leaving for a meeting with world leaders at the G20 Summit in ArgentinaThe Special Counsel did the very same thing as the President was leaving for a world summit in Helsinki…
 
Dershowitz says Cohen’s plea signals Mueller is examining political issues
“Let’s just assume for hypothetical purposes that it’s true — President Trump was trying to build a tower in Moscow in the early stages of the campaign. That would not be a crime. What is Mueller doing investigating that?” Dershowitz asked. “What’s the federal crime in wanting to build a tower? It might be a federal crime by Cohen to lie about it, but how does this involve the possibility the president may have committed a crime?”…   https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/418968-dershowitz-says-cohens-plea-agreement-signals-mueller-is-looking-into-political
 
Dershowitz: New Cohen Guilty Plea another Example of Mueller Probe ‘Creating’ Crimes
Dershowitz emphasized that crimes by Cohen and others were committed as a result of Mueller’s appointment, not before he began the investigation…adding that it calls into question the role of a special counsel in “creating” crimes…
 
Ex-Chair of House Oversight Com @jasoninthehouse: As I recall, @HillaryClinton lied to Congress and the DOJ didn’t even investigate nor did they prosecuteAs Chair of Oversight, with Chair of House Judiciary, we formally asked DOJ via the FBI. Nothing was done
 
@paulsperry_: The Cohen guilty plea to false congressional testimony developed from a criminal referral Democratic Sen. Mark Warner sent to Mueller. So there you go
  
@drawandstrike: Mueller just got another process perjury conviction, this time Michael Cohen, for lying about email Felix Sater about a real estate deal in Russia that never happened & had nothing to do with the 2016 election.  Felix Sater is a long time FBI informant/asset, just like Stefan Halper.  From the emails I’ve seen, he’s making the exact same kind of pitch to Cohen about access to top Russian gov’t people that Prof. Jospeh Mifsud made to G. Papadopoulos.
 
@seanmdav: James Clapper blatantly lied to Congress about mass surveillance of hundreds of millions of Americans. And @johnbrennan blatantly lied to Congress about the CIA *spying on Congress.* But that’s okay, because lying to Congress is fine if you illegally spy on the right people.

-END-

Let’s close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog

 

Declassify FISA Docs Coming, Mueller Desperate, Economy Tanking?

By Greg Hunter On November 30, 2018 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 362 11.30.18)

Trump tweeted out a cartoon with some of the people behind bars that failed in taking him out of office in a soft coup. The cartoon asked “When do the trials for treason begin?” Could a release of the FISA documents laced with outright fraud used to spy on President Trump and prove a phony witch hunt be far away? People will go to jail over this.

Meanwhile, Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller and his team of Democrats seem to be panicked to tie President Trump to the failed Russian collusion case of the 2016 election. Some being prosecuted and questioned claim Mueller’s team are asking them to lie to get a reduced sentence and to finger President Trump. It ain’t working.

The Fed is looking like it’s going to raise interest rates one more time and stop. Wall Street loves this, but is the Fed signaling the economy is starting to get into trouble?

Join Greg Hunter as he gives his take on the top stories of the past week in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

After the Interview:

CIA whistleblower Kevin Shipp, founder of ForTheLoveofFreedom.net, will be the guest for the Early Sunday Release.

Video Link

https://usawatchdog.com/declassify-fisa-docs-coming- mueller-desperate-economy-tanking/

-END-

I WILL YOU ON MONDAY
H
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