DEC 4/DOW DOWN 799 POINTS/NASDAQ DOWN 283 POINTS AS MARKETS CONFUSED WITH TRUMP/CHINA TRADE STATEMENTS/GOLD UP ANOTHER $2.75/SILVER UP ANOTHER 10 CENTS/.THERESA MAY WITHHELD A REPORT ON THE BREXIT AND CONSEQUENTLY LOST ON A CONTEMPT VOTE IN PARLIAMENT: THE POUND SINKS!!/MACRON STUPIDLY SUSPENDS THE GAS TAX BY 6 MONTHS ONLY AND THAT EXCITES THE YELLOW VESTS EVEN MORE AS FRANCE CONTINUES TO BURN/IRAN AGAIN THREATENS THE KEY CHOKE POINT: THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ/TRUMP TAKES AIM AT AMAZON AND BEZOS AS HE IS NOW GOING TO REFORM THE POST OFFICE/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1241.20 UP $7,25 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.55 UP 10 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1239.00

 

silver: $14.53

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

DEC

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 440 NOTICE(S) FOR 44,000 OZ (1.368 tonnes)

Total number of notices filed so far for DEC:  4052  for 405200 OZ  (12.603 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR DECEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

269 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  1,345,000  OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 2782 for 13,910,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $4117: up 95

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $4047  up 25 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 3828 CONTRACTS FROM 184,565 DOWN TO 180,737 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 29 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

1760 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND 0 FOR MARCH AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1760 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1760 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1760 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 8.800 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 29 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND

NOW 18.685 INITIALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC: 3754 CONTRACTS (FOR 2 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 1994 CONTRACTS) OR 18.77 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 3754 CONTRACTS OR 9.38 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC:  18.77 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 2.68% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,695.67    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR NOVEMBER /2018:                                 247.18         MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3828 DESPITE THE 29 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY AS THE BOYS CONTINUE WITH THEIR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OVER TO  ETFS AT THE START OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1760 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE LOST A GOOD SIZED: 2068 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 1760 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 3828 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 29 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.45 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .9050 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 129% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 269 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,345,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./AND NOW DEC. AT 18.685 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY STRONG  SIZED 6888 CONTRACTS UP TO 395,798 WITH THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A RISE IN PRICE OF $13.25//.YESTERDAY’S TRADING) AS THESE GUYS JOINED SILVER IN THE ROUTINE MIGRATION OVER TO ETF’S AS WE APPROACH AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG  SIZED 11,677 CONTRACTS:

 

DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 11677 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 395,798. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 18,565 CONTRACTS:  6888 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 11,677 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 18,565 CONTRACTS OR 1,856,500 OZ = 57.74 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $13.25

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 9038 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 20,715 CONTRACTS OR 2,071,500 OZ OR 64.43 TONNES (2 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 10,357 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 64.43 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 64.43/2550 x 100% TONNES =  1.10% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,828.82  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR NOV 2018:                        552.88 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 6888 WITH THE GAIN IN PRICING ($13.25) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 11,677 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 11,677 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC GAIN OF 18,565 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

11677 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 6888 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 57.74 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN OF $13.25 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX

 

 

we had: 440 notice(s) filed upon for 44,000 oz of gold at the comex.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $13.25 YESTERDAY AND $7.25 TODAY

 

 

STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/

WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES OF GOLD

 

THAT MAKES NO SENSE!1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   758.21 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 758.21 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS YESTERDAY AND 10 CENTS TODAY:

 

 

 

A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;

A WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ AND THAT WOULD PROBABLY USED TO PAY FEES LIKE INSURANCE AND STORAGE

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 3828 CONTRACTS from 184565 UP TO 180,737  AND MOVING A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

1760 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1760 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 3828 CONTRACTS TO THE 1760 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG LOSS  OF 2028 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 10.34 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. AND NOW 18.685 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 29 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 1760 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 78.60 POINTS OR 0.29% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 78.40 POINTS OR 0.29% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 538.71 OR 2.39%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.00%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8355 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 54.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.97 for Brent. Stocks inEurope OPENED RED//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8355AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8305: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C/  CHINA

a)And now the true story as to what happened on Saturday:  China censors the USA’s “We Chat” posts on the issue of the Truce Trad War results on the working dinner with Trump.  It seems that there is a huge difference of opinion as to what was agreed upon.  You can probably bet the farm that when 90 ends there will be no appreciable agreement and Trump will have to increase his tariffs

( zerohedge)

b)An absolute joke:  there is no deal over auto tariffs. Kudlow denies Trump tweet

( zerohedge)

c)Stocks sink as again Trump confirms that the trade war is not over.  I do not think that Xi will give in despite the fact that China is very hurt economically by these tariffs.

( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)GREAT BRITAIN/EU

The European Court of Justice has just given an advisory opinion and it states that the UK can unilaterally cancel Brexit by a vote of its people

This may come in handy for May who really is a “REMAINDER”

( zerohedge)

ii)This is interesting: as we reported Theresa May made a stupid move by withholding  legal advice on the Brexit, something that Parliamentarians had to see.  Theresa May lost her contempt vote and that caused Cable to slide badly.  The best thing that can happen would be for Gr., Britain to leave and without paying anything.  They will all run to her doorstep and try to make trade deals. Enough with this garbage

(courtesy zero hedge)

iii)ITALY/EU

Crooks comments that various states are rising against the establishment and this will bring down the “empire”

( Alasdair Crooke/Strategic culture Foundation)

iv)FRANCE
Macron folds as the citizens prevail as he suspends the fuel tax.  Macron has a lot more to do as the middle class are furious that he was about to tax them to death as well as totally wipe out the middle class because of non affordability of goods and services inside France
( zerohedge)
v)Macron is an idiot:  he does not read his people.  As I indicated above, they do not want a suspension of the fuel tax which is going to pay for the sins of climate change.  They want all gas taxes to be immediately eliminated.  And predictability, the student protests intensified immediately..(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/USA

Iran again threatens to block the key Strait of Hormuz, which is the key transit choke point.  We have a few USA aircraft carriers en route to the area

( zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Seems that everyone is trying to challenge the USA hegemony.  The key is obtaining their own SWIFT system which is a verifiable payment system and also interest rate benchmarks with the former the far more important.
(courtesy GATA/Bloomberg)

ii)Hugo Salinas Price, is the 4th richest man in Mexico.  He describes coming across a gold coin in 1972 for 771 Mexico pesos.  Today that would be worth over 31 million in old pesos.

( zerohedge)

iii)Clint Siegner believes that the new year will bring free and fair gold and silver markets

( Clint Siegner/GATA)

iv)Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them

( zerohedge/Chris Powell)

v)Turk and Lassande cannot figure out the huge fall in gold and silver was due to spreaders leaving.  However, with that said, the OI in silver continues to fall totally opposite to gold and with silver rising nicely that should scare our bankers to no end

(courtesy Kingworldnews/Turk/Lassonde)

vi)Nicholas B. reporting on the obvious fraud with respect to the EFP’s:(courtesy Nicholas B.

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

BLOOD BATH TODAY

PLUNGING YIELDS

PLUNGING 2/30 BOND YIELD

PLUNGING 3/5 YIELD.

PLUNGING 2/10 YIELD.

 

ii)Market data/

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)TOM Luongo believes that Trump has made some serious errors..did Trump fold on everything at the G20?

see for yourself..he is probably correct and Trump will have major problems in the next two years.

( Tom Luongo)

b)this should give you a good idea as to the collapse in the housing sector in the USA:  Toll brothers shock the market with a monstrous 13% plunge in orders to construct
(courtesy zerohedge)

c)Now Gundlach, the bond King shows that the 2 and 5 yield curve inversion shows that the market does not belief that Powell will have one rate increase in 2019.( Gundlach/zerohedge)

d)Amazon shareholders and Jeff Bezos are not going to like this as Trump targets them and other E Commerce sites as he will now undergo Postal reforms

( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

Sorry to say but our Creepy Porn Lawyer has ruled out running for President in 2020

(courtesy zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest ROSEBY A HUGE SIZED 6888 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 395,798 WITH THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($13.25 IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A VERY  STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 11,677 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR DECEMBER:  11677 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  11677 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  18,565 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 11677 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED 6888COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 18,565 contracts OR 1,856,500 OZ OR 57.74 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of December and we now have a total of 4220 contracts stand in December so we had a loss of 1578 contracts.  We had 1529 notices served yesterday, so we lost only 49 contracts or 4900 oz will not stand as these guys morphed into London based forwards and as well they received a fiat bonus for their efforts.

The next delivery month after December is January which saw it FALL TO 4667 FOR A LOSS OF 75 CONTRACTS.  February GAINED  8078 contracts to stand at 297,427 contracts.

FOR COMPARISON TO THE 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1/2017: 37.035 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

EVENTUALLY BY DEC 31.2017:  28.592 TONNES STOOD AND THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

AS A REMINDER WE HAVE ONLY 4.000 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD READY TO SERVE UPON OUR DEC LONGS.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 440 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 44000 OZ. (1.368 tonnes)

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY 3828 CONTRACTS FROM 184,565 DOWN TO 180,737 (AND FURTHER FROM NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S GIGANTIC  OI COMEX LOSS  OCCURRED WITH A 29 CENT GAIN IN PRICING???.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 1760 EFP CONTRACTS:

 

FOR DECEMBER: 1760 CONTRACTS, FOR MARCH 0 CONTRACTS, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1760.  ON A NET BASIS WE lost 1722 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  3828 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1760 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   2068 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 29 CENT GAIN IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of DECEMBER and here in this front month of December we now have 1224 contracts standing for a loss of 1015 oz.  We had 1050 contracts stand for delivery on Friday so we gained 35 contracts or an additional 175,000 oz will stand for delivery as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating to accept a fiat bonus. We continue where we left off last month as queue jumping in silver is the norm for at least 20 months.

After  December we have the non active  January contract month and here we saw a loss of 13 contracts down to 1970 contracts.  February saw its another 13 contract gain to stand at 26. March, the next big delivery month after December saw a loss of 3225 contracts  down to 147,534

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1.2017 WE HAD A RATHER LARGE: 19.47 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY

BY THE END OF DECEMBER:  33.295 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NAME OF THE GAME IN SILVER.

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 269 notice(s) filed for 1,345,000 OZ for the DEC, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 213,344 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  255,473  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

DEC 4-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
600.628
oz  HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

NIL

 

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
440 notice(s)
 44000 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
3780 contracts
(378000 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4052 notices
405200 OZ
12.603 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 2 dealer entry:

we had 2 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into Brinks: 96,453.0000 oz  (3,000 kilobars)…a phony entry..

ii) Into HSBC: 32,002.18 oz  (real gold brought in_

total dealer deposits: 128,455.180 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had one kilobar entry and that was a phony deposit of 3,000 kilobars by Brinks dealer.

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

 

total gold withdrawing from the dealer;  0 oz

 

we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 0 customer deposits
total customer deposits NIL oz
we had 0  adjustments..

we still have not had any adjustments out of the dealer to the customer account to signify a settlement

FOR THE DEC 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 440 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 90 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4052) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (4220 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (440 x 100 oz per contract) equals 783,200 OZ OR 24.360 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DECEMBER

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (4052 x 100 oz)  + {4220)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (440 x 100 oz )which equals 783,200 ozstanding OR 24.360 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DECEMBER.

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 15.179 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 24.360 TONNES STANDING FOR DECEMBER

THE CROOKS NOW HAVE TO RESORT TO CASH SETTLING GOLD CONTRACTS THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE GOLD AT THE COMEX.

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  488,008.987 oz or   15.179 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,149,264.362 oz 253.476 tonnes

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 103 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

DEC INITIAL standings/SILVER

DEC 4, 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,748,862.456
oz
CNT’
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
599,823.887
oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
269
CONTRACT(S)
1,345,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
955 contracts
4,775,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 2782 contracts

(13,910,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 151.7 million oz of  total silver inventory or 52.09% of all official comex silver. (152.0 million/292 million)

ii)Into Scotia:  599,823.887 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 599,823.887  oz

we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 adjustments

i) Out of CNT:  506,038.650 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

 

total dealer silver:  87.091 million

total dealer + customer silver:  293.865  million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2018. contract month is represented by 1050 contract(s) FOR 5,250,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2513 x 5,000 oz = 12,555,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (2251) and the number of notices served upon today (1050 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2018 contract month: 2513(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC( 2239) -number of notices served upon today (1050)x 5000 oz equals 18,500,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained 195 contracts or 975,000 additional oz will stand and these guys refused to accept a London based forward as well as negating to accept a fiat bonus. The EFP route is nothing but a cash settlement process and it is done in London to avoid detection.

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2018. contract month is represented by 1269 contract(s) FOR 1.345,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2782 x 5,000 oz = 13,910,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (1224) and the number of notices served upon today (269 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2018 contract month: 2782(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC( 1224) -number of notices served upon today (1269)x 5000 oz equals 18,685,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained 35 contracts or 175,000 additional oz will stand and these guys refused to accept a London based forward as well as negating to accept a fiat bonus. The EFP route is nothing but a cash settlement process and it is done in London to avoid detection.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 75,066 CONTRACTS  … 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 101,440 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 101,440 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 507 million OZ  72.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -3.89-% (DEC 4/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.12% to NAV (DEC /2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.89%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.46/TRADING 11.93/DISCOUNT 404

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.25: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.30: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 26/WITH GOLD DOWN 65 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

 

NOV 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.95: A BIG CHANGE: A GOOD SIZED DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 16/WITH GOLD UP $8.00: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.48 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 15/WITH GOLD UP $5.35/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $8.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.77 TONNES AT THE GLD/THAT SHOULD END THE WHACKING OF GOLD FOR NOW AND A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 84 TONNES: INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 4.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 758.21 tonnes

*IN LAST 508 TRADING DAYS: 176.94 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 408 TRADING DAYS: A NET 16.94 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

DEC 4/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ/

DEC 3/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.22 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV /INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ.

NOV 28/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 188,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ/

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.301 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.718 MILLION OZ/

NOV 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ

NOV 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ.

NOV 21/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 563,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 16/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS; A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 328,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/ A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.784 MILLION OZ

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ/

 

 

DEC 4/2018:

 

Inventory 321.552 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.44/ and libor 6 month duration 2.90

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .46

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.74%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.14

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.40

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

“Collapse Of Civilisation Is On The Horizon” – Attenborough Warns World Leaders

– “Time is running out” – Sir David Attenborough
Continuation of civilisation is in your hands,” Attenborough warns world leaders
– Mass extinction is “on the horizon”
– Failure to ‘join the dots’ between environmental risks and significant economic challenges

(Editors note: The world faces some very serious ecological challenges due to the pollution, destruction and over consumption of our natural resources. What we find quite bizarre is the complete cognitive dissonance between the increasingly alarming warnings of absolute environmental Armageddon and the complete complacency of investors and market participants.

There is a complete failure to ‘join the dots’ between environmental challenges of today and how they may impact our economies and global markets.

The notion that our global economy and financial markets including frothy risk assets such as stock and bond markets would not be impacted by “civilisation collapse” is irrational and complacent in the extreme. Our economies and markets are dependent on our planet. If civilisation collapses then so will companies, governments and economies and the markets which are all a subset of our civilisation and our planet.

Whether the severe environmental challenges of today will result in the complete collapse of civilisation is yet to be determined. We hope and believe that humanity will step back from the brink. 

However, it would be prudent for people to take stock of the risks, take a long term view and diversify into physical gold and silver. Both have protected people from societal and economic collapse throughout history.

Precious metals in coin and bar form (taken insured delivery of or in allocated and segregated storage) remain vital forms of financial insurance and hedges against various worst case scenarios such as financial and currency crashes, global pandemics, world wars, natural disasters such as earthquakes, super volcanoes and ecological disasters.

“Collapse Of Civilisation Is On The Horizon” – Attenborough Warns

The world faces a “disaster of global scale” that poses the greatest threat to civilization and the natural world for thousands of years, Sir David Attenborough warned yesterday.

The broadcaster and environmentalist, 92, spoke ominously about his view on the catastrophic effects of climate change at a United Nations summit in Poland.

Attenborough, who is famous for his amazing nature programmes, urged world leaders at the UN conference to “take action” to prevent the “collapse of civilisation.”

“Right now we are facing a manmade disaster of global scale, our greatest threat in thousands of years: climate change,” he warned in a speech at the two-week climate conference in Poland.

“If we don’t take action, the collapse of our civilisations and the extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon.”

 

News and Commentary

Perth Mint’s Nov gold sales surge 75 percent, Silver lower (Reuters.com)

Asian markets take a break a day after big gains (MarketWatch.com)

Asia shares fall as lift from US-China trade truce ends (Reuters.com)

As Fed Rethinks Path for Rates, Gold’s Poised to Jump in 2019 (Bloomberg.com)

Gold prices climb to over 1-month high on weaker dollar (CNBC.com)


Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

Gold Is Coiled and Set To Surge Like Natural Gas — Bloomberg Intelligence (Bloomberg.com)

The Start Of Something Big In Silver, (KingWorldNews.com)

France’s Meltdown, Macron’s Disdain (ZeroHedge.com)

Here’s How Europe Plans to Challenge the Dollar’s Dominance (Bloomberg.com)

New Home Sales Collapse In U.S. (InvestmentWatchBlog.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

03 Dec: USD 1,231.05, GBP 966.00 & EUR 1,084.92 per ounce
30 Nov: USD 1,220.45, GBP 956.95 & EUR 1,073.75 per ounce
29 Nov: USD 1,226.25, GBP 960.03 & EUR 1,077.87 per ounce
28 Nov: USD 1,213.20, GBP 949.69 & EUR 1,074.77 per ounce
27 Nov: USD 1,225.05, GBP 959.70 & EUR 1,082.21 per ounce
26 Nov: USD 1,226.65, GBP 954.58 & EUR 1,079.33 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

03 Dec: USD 14.39, GBP 11.31 & EUR 12.69 per ounce
30 Nov: USD 14.24, GBP 11.16 & EUR 12.52 per ounce
29 Nov: USD 14.26, GBP 11.17 & EUR 12.55 per ounce
28 Nov: USD 14.15, GBP 11.06 & EUR 12.54 per ounce
27 Nov: USD 14.28, GBP 11.20 & EUR 12.61 per ounce
26 Nov: USD 14.38, GBP 11.18 & EUR 12.65 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Deutsche Bank May Cause The Next Global Crisis
– Ireland’s Mr Gold Reveals Nuggets Of Wisdom For When The Next Crash Comes
– BREXIT May Lead to UK Property Crash and Depression
– General Motors And General Electric Highlight The Ponzi Scheme That Is The US Economy
– A Worldwide Debt Default Is A Real Possibility
– Risk of Lower Lows in Gold Remains Prior to Spectacular Rally to Follow
– Gold and Silver Hold Firm as Stocks and Oil Lower in to US Holiday Weekend
– Is Brexit a Massive Threat to Globalisation?
– Stock Markets Remains Extremely Overvalued – Hussman
– Stocks are Now in ‘Complete Bitcoin Territory,’ Asset Manager Says

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
 
ii) GATA stories
Seems that everyone is trying to challenge the USA hegemony.  The key is obtaining their own SWIFT system which is a verifiable payment system and also interest rate benchmarks with the former the far more important.
(courtesy GATA/Bloomberg)

Here’s how Europe plans to challenge the U.S. dollar’s dominance

 Section: 

Assuming, of course, there’s anything left of Europe in a few months.

* * *

By Viktoria Dendrinou and Nikos Chrysoloras
Bloomberg News
Monday, December 3, 2018

The European Union is set to unveil plans for challenging the dollar’s dominance in global markets, including energy, as it seeks to strengthen the international role of its currency and become more independent from the U.S. amid a widening rift in transatlantic ties.

The EU must develop “a full range of trustworthy interest rate benchmarks” in financial markets and a fully integrated instant payment system, according to a draft set of initiatives due to be released later this week by the European Commission. The bloc’s executive arm will also explore the possibility to further develop the role of the euro in foreign exchange markets.

… 

 

The commission’s plans are aimed at mitigating the so-called “exorbitant privilege” of the U.S. dollar, which allows Washington to force global compliance with its foreign policy goals, including by the EU.”There is scope for the euro to develop further its global role and achieve its full potential, reflecting the euro area’s political, economic, and financial weight,” the commission said in the draft obtained by Bloomberg. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-03/here-s-how-europe-pla…

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END
Hugo Salinas Price, is the 4th richest man in Mexico.  He describes coming across a gold coin in 1972 for 771 Mexico pesos.  Today that would be worth over 31 million in old pesos.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Hugo Salinas Price: Story of a gold coin

 Section: 

3:12p ET Monday, December 3, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Hugo Salinas Price of the Mexican Civic Association for Silver writes today about coming across an old receipt for a Mexican gold coin he purchased for 717 pesos in 1972. He calculates that it has appreciated in value against those 1972 pesos by a fantastic margin. That is, the coin for which he paid 717 pesos 46 years ago would be worth nearly 31 million of those old pesos today. He’s still living in Mexico and thinks he’ll hold on to that coin a while longer.

Salinas Price’s short essay is headlined “Story of a Gold Coin” and it’s posted at the association’s internet site here:

http://plata.com.mx/enUS/More/365?idioma=2

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Clint Siegner believes that the new year will bring free and fair gold and silver markets

(courtesy Clint Siegner/GATA)

Clint Siegner: Will 2019 bring free and fair gold and

silver markets?

 Section: 

By Clint Siegner
Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho
Monday, December 3, 2018

JPMorgan Chase and a number of other bullion banks are in a whole lot of trouble. Evidence detailing years of rigging markets and swindling clients is piling up.

Deutsche Bank pleaded guilty two years ago and forked over hundreds of thousands of documents. John Edmonds, a former JPMorgan trader, entered his own guilty plea last month and turned state’s evidence.

The carefully cultivated system of captured regulators may not help the banks this time.

… 

 

FBI investigators and Department of Justice attorneys are involved now. This investigation is out of the hands of CFTC bureaucrats who hope to avoid rocking the boat and/or land high paying jobs on Wall Street someday.

The DOJ might be ready to actually prosecute crimes this time around. Bankers may have to explain to criminal juries what they have been doing. When they have finished, class-action attorneys and civil juries will get in on the action.

Perhaps for the first time since metals futures began trading, the possibility exists that crooked bankers will be held to account. There is still a long way to go, and there is certainly plenty of reason to doubt the Department of Justice will live up to its name. But there is hope.

It is never too early for market participants to be thinking about what free and fair metals exchanges might look like. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2018/12/03/2019-free-fair-gold-silver-m…

END

Turk and Lassande cannot figure out the huge fall in gold and silver was due to spreaders leaving.  However, with that said, the OI in silver continues to fall totally opposite to gold and with silver rising nicely that should scare our bankers to no end

(courtesy Kingworldnews/Turk/Lassonde)

Turk, Lassonde startled by fall in metals’ open interest,

hinting at trend change

 Section: 

6:06p ET Monday, December 3, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldMoney founder James Turk and mining entrepreneur Pierre Lassonde, interviewed today by King World News, note the sharply declining open interest in the gold and silver futures markets and speculate that a change in trend is underway. Both say they can’t recall a sharper drop.

Turk’s remarks are posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/james-turk-the-start-of-something-big-in-silve…

Lassonde’s are posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/legend-pierre-lassonde-responds-to-yesterdays-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END




iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

Nicholas B. reporting on the obvious fraud with respect to the EFP’s:

(courtesy Nicholas B.

Good morning Bill and Harvey from Africa,
The LBMA’s name was associated with the Exchange for Physical farce,which was starting to unravel in plain sight as the cumulative volumes exceeded 7,000 tonnes if 2017 transaction were brought into the cumulative computation. Since the tern ”physical’ was incorporated into the EFP acronym, it was assumed that the LBMA must be involved. The LBMA recently embarked on a campaign to re establish its credibility as a market place for copious physical gold transactions, maybe in an attempt at damage limitation now that EFP transactions are clearly exposed as a fraud.Here are the most recent statistics of LBMA vault gold holdings in loco London.
LBMA data is available per month from July 2016 onwards LBMA total loco London gold holdings BOE total vault holdings (included in LBMA data) Residual gold held with all other LBMA custodians Residual gold held  with all other LBMA custodians in tonnes GLD holdings with various custodians and sub custodians Non BOE float, excluding GLD custodial gold, available for allocated gold holders etc.
A B A-B A-B C A-B-C
000 000 000
Troy ozs. Troy ozs. Troy ozs. Tonnes Tonnes Tonnes
July 2016 234,144 158,939 75,205 2,339.14 958.09 1,381.05
Dec 2017 251,622 171,086 80,536 2,504.95 837.05 1,667.90
Jan 2018 251,678 170,979 80,699 2,510.02 841.35 1,668.67
Feb 2018 251,356 169,590 81,766 2,543.21 831.03 1,712.18
March 2018 250,142 168,020 82,122 2,554.28 846.12 1,708.16
April 2018 250,257 166,881 83,376 2,593.28 871.20 1,722.08
May 2018 248,573 166,612 81,961 2,549.27 851.45 1,697.82
June 2018 247,043 166,516 80,527 2,504.67 820.51 1,684.16
July 2018 245,381 166,728 78,653 2,446.38 800.20 1,646.18
August 2018 242,045 166,330 75,715 2,355.00 757.81 1,597.19
This data ,as published by the LBMA and BOE clearly indicates that all London gold trading manifestly relates to the churning of paper contracts only ,except that if any physical gold does enter the LBMA, it leaves in the same period (the West to East flows that are clearly visible).
Maybe,because of LBMA sensitivities to the continuing association of its name with the EFP fraud, the Cartel are merely now executing in plain sight the elimination of contra COMEX transactions between these collusive criminals. That is why things are a bit different this month end-the veneer of the EFP framework has been abandoned and the open interest was now downsized in full view.If the farcical EFP framework is now being abandoned as a fraud that has now been over utilized, does that mean that this COMEX farce is now reaching its denouement?
Regards
Nicholas B

_

 

end

________________________________________

 

 

 

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.8355/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS ON TRUCE/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8305   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 11.61 POINTS OR 0.42%

. HANG SANG CLOSED UP 78.40 POINTS OR 0.29%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 538.71 POINTS OR 2.39%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 96.50/Euro RISES TO 1.1406

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.07/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.79/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 54.01 and Brent: 62.97

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.29%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 3.15% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.50%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.86: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.24

3k Gold at $1240.50 silver at:14.58   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 10/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.42

3m oil into the 54 dollar handle for WTI and 62 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.79DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9947 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1347 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.29%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.96% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.23%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.3326

 

Stocks Slides As Trade Hopium Turns Into Hangover;

Curve Inversion Accelerates

So much for the trade truce rally.

One day after it emerged that nobody in the Trump administration has any clue about what was actually agreed upon during Saturday’s historic “dinner date” between Trump and Xi, Monday’s market hopium fizzled and as we previewed yesterday, has turned into a vicious hangover, with US equity futures dropping and European shares tracking declines in Asia despite a modest recovery from Chinese stocks into the close as investors curbed their enthusiasm over any breakthrough in the trade war.

S&P 500 futures indicated U.S. shares would give up much of their Monday’s gains at the New York open, while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped led by the same automakers which surged yesterday on a Trump tweet about China dropping car tariffs, which has since been largely disproven.

Markets slumped across the globe, with world stocks knocked off a three-week high as a result of dashed hopes of a swift resolution in the US-China trade war after media appearances from Trump administration officials shed little light on the specifics of any Sino-American trade agreement, while growing fears the U.S economy could be headed for recession sooner than expected weighed on the dollar.

As Bloomberg notes, the optimism that drove Monday’s gains quickly dissipated as investors scrambled to figure out exactly what, if anything, was agreed between the U.S. and China on trade at the weekend. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, dialed back expectations and added qualifiers when asked about the outcome of talks between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. China’s government did not help the mood as it was unable to formulate its response to the trade summit – three days after its conclusion – as senior officials are still out of the country with President Xi Jinping. China has said nothing about the commitment to remove car tariffs flagged by the U.S., nor did its statement mention the 90-day timeline for talks the Americans have specified.

Following declines on Asian bourses, where Japan’s Nikkei stock index closed 2.4% lower, even as shares in Shanghai and Hong Kong fared better, fluctuating before ending higher as the yuan climbed, the mood was somber in Europe with the wider blue chip index slipping 0.3 percent. Frankfurt’s DAX and Paris’ CAC 40 fell 0.6 percent while MSCI’s index of world stocks declined 0.1 percent.

“The initial relief rally was never going to last. Investors need more detail now in order for that risk on sentiment to survive,” said Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group. “So far that detail has not been coming through and investors have more questions than answers.”

Adding to market woes, was an inversion of the short end of the U.S. yield curve which foreshadowed the end of the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign and raised the specter of a possible U.S. recession. The curve between U.S. three-year and five-year and between two-year and five-year paper inverted on Monday – the first parts of the Treasury yield curve to invert since the financial crisis, excluding very short-dated debt; meanwhile the closely watched 2s10s just 13 basis points from inversion.

On Tuesday, the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes dropped as low as 2.94%, sliding below its 200DMA for the first time since September 2017.

“The focus is now shifting to the inverted U.S. bond yield curve which has negative connotations, while implying the U.S. economy is heading towards what was only a few weeks ago an improbable economic slowdown,” said Stephen Innes, head of trading for APAC at Oanda. “Now, even recessionary fear is starting to raise its ugly head.”

German/U.S. yields moved in tandem, with curves bull flatten as the focus on curve inversion gains momentum. Long-dated Gilt yields drop 3bps, dragging peers lower, short dates underpinned by steady demand at the 2024 auction, although attention remains squarely on Brexit developments.

As yields dropped and the curve inverted, the USD weakened against all G-10 currencies, weakening 0.8% against the Japanese yen and fell more than 0.5% to its weakest level since September against the offshore Chinese yuan to 6.83 yuan, with the Bloomberg dollar index sliding back under 1,200…

… while the cable rallied back above 1.2800 after the European Court of Justice offers a non-binding opinion on the possibility of an Art. 50 reversal. This was a bounce back from two-month lows it hit in early trade against the dollar on concern about British parliamentary approval for a proposed Brexit deal. The pound last stood 0.7 percent firmer at $1.2814 while weakening 0.2 percent against the euro to 89.10 pence. The South African rand strengthened after a surprise GDP beat, putting in the best performance in EMFX. WTI crude pushes higher through $54, but knocked off best levels after Saudi Energy Min tempers hopes for an OPEC+ production cut

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was scheduled to testify on Wednesday to a congressional Joint Economic Committee, but the hearing was postponed because of a national day of mourning for U.S. President George H.W. Bush, who died on Friday.

Elsewhere oil continued to find support, and extended gains, adding to Monday’s 4 percent surge as investors bet a key OPEC meeting on Thursday could deliver supply cuts in the wake of moves by producers to address a supply glut that contributed to a 15% tumble in West Texas Intermediate prices last month. U.S. crude and Brent crude added 1.6 percent to $53.82 and $62.7 per barrel respectively. Later in the session oil pared some gains after Saudi Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih said it’s too early to say whether OPEC and its partners will cut production.

Gold hit a session high of USD 1238.83, reaching its highest value since the end of October, as the dollar continues to weaken on a decline in US yields following the positive G20 trade outcomes. Steel futures have hit a 7-month low as prices are pressured by the oversupplied market, this comes after the positive sentiment seen in base metals on Monday from US-China trade developments. Separately, palladium (+1.0%) hit a record high of USD 1221.95 earlier in the session.

On today’s economic calendar, no major economic data are expected. AutoZone and Dollar General are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.6% to 2,774.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 359.96
  • MXAP down 0.6% to 155.59
  • MXAPJ down 0.03% to 503.44
  • Nikkei down 2.4% to 22,036.05
  • Topix down 2.4% to 1,649.20
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 27,260.44
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 2,665.96
  • Sensex down 0.4% to 36,113.39
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1% to 5,713.14
  • Kospi down 0.8% to 2,114.35
  • US Dollar Index down 0.5% to 96.53
  • Brent futures up 2.4% to $63.18/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,239.66
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.2 bps to 0.284%
  • Euro up 0.4% to $1.1398
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 6.7 bps to 2.779%
  • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 1.492%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • President Donald Trump left his top advisers scrambling on Monday to explain a trade deal he claimed he’d struck with China to reduce tariffs on U.S. cars exported to the country — an agreement that doesn’t exist on paper and hasn’t been confirmed in Beijing
  • The ECJ opinion was seen as potentially helping both May in getting her EU withdrawal deal through Parliament as it could encourage Brexit hardliners to back the agreement in fear of the U.K.’s exit will be stopped, as well as giving hope to those who want to thwart the process
  • China’s government isn’t yet able to formulate its response to the summit on trade with U.S. President Donald Trump as senior officials are still out of the country with President Xi Jinping. China has said nothing about the commitment to remove car tariffs flagged by the U.S., nor did its statement mention the 90-day timeline for talks the Americans have specified. On Tuesday, China announced an array of punishments for intellectual property theft
  • French President Emmanuel Macron plans to reverse course and suspend a planned fuel-tax hike that has sent as many as 300,000 protesters into the streets for three weekends in sometimes violent clashes
  • U.K. derivatives-clearing giants including a unit of London Stock Exchange Group Plc are pushing the European Union to guarantee that they’ll be able to continue serving the bloc’s biggest banks in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to people with knowledge of the firms’ positions
  • South Africa emerged from its first recession in almost a decade in the third quarter as recoveries in manufacturing and agriculture contributed to an increase in economic growth
  • A section of the U.S. Treasuries yield curve inverted for the first time in more than a decade. The spread between 3- and 5- year yields turned negative, and the 2- to 5-year gap soon followed
  • Theresa May’s attempt to sell her Brexit deal to lawmakers was torpedoed before it had even begun, as opposition parties were granted an emergency debate on whether her government is in contempt of Parliament for refusing to release legal advice about the deal
  • The onshore yuan climbed for a second day, extending its biggest advance in more than two years, as a rally built on a truce in the China-U.S. trade war continues
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia left its key rate at a record low Tuesday as it gauges the impact of a housing market slowdown
  • Oil extended gains above $53 a barrel as investors held on to optimism OPEC and its allies will strike a deal to stabilize the market. The agreement between Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Russian President Vladimir Putin raises the possibility of a production accord when OPEC and its partners meet this week in Vienna

Asian stocks traded mostly negative as the relief rally fizzled out in the region with investors quick to book their recent profits. ASX 200 (-1.0%) and Nikkei 225 (-2.4%) were lower from the open in which a pullback in consumer and energy stocks led the downside in Australia and with Japanese sentiment dampened by a firmer currency. An indecisive tone was seen in the Hang Seng (-0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) amid a lack of fresh drivers and as participants await the next developments of the US-China trade saga with China reportedly considering possibilities of lowering US auto tariffs. In addition, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin was said to be hopeful for an agreement but warned tariffs will be implemented if a deal fails to materialize, while China reportedly censored a post by the US Embassy regarding the recent trade developments and tariff ceasefire which some have suggested could be a possible effort to avoid looking weak or that it gave in to US pressure. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded higher amid the risk averse tone and as they tracked the overnight gains in T-notes. This coincided with the US 10yr Treasury yield dropping below its 200DMA for the first time in around a year, while the US 2yr/10yr spread continued to narrow to its flattest in over a decade. Today also saw a 10yr auction from Japan, although there was a muted reaction as the auction bore mixed results.

Top Asian News

  • Foreigners Cut China Bond Holdings First Time Since Feb. 2017
  • Sri Lanka Court Restrains Rajapaksa Acting as Prime Minister
  • China Announces New Punishments for Intellectual Property Theft
  • Rich Asians Are Crazy to Live in Shanghai, Luxury Index Shows

European equities have kicked the session off with modest losses (Eurostoxx 50 -0.5%) as markets take a breather from yesterday’s “trade truce” inspired gains. The CAC 40 (-0.6%) is showing some marginal underpeformance relative to its peers in what has been a difficult start to the week for French equities amid domestic protests over the weekend, albeit tensions might show some signs of abating following reports that the French PM is to halt the proposed fuel tax hike. Elsewhere, sectors are relatively mixed thus far with mild outperformance seen in energy names (in-fitting with price action in the complex). Consumer discretionary stocks are a clear underperformer with Volkswagen (-2.2%), Porsche (-2.0%) and BMW (-1.9%) all lower after German car registrations fell 10% Y/Y. Postal names are softer in Europe following a disappointing update from BPost (-20.4%) which has sent their shares to the foot of the Stoxx 600, dragging Post NL (-5.3%) and Deutsche Post (-1.7%) lower in sympathy. In terms of individual movers and shakers have predominantly been the result of broker moves with Rightmove (+1.8%), JC Decaux (-3.3%), BAE Systems (-4.9%) and Continental (-4.0%) all gaining traction as a result of rating action.

Top European News

  • Carney Says Worst-Case Brexit Scenario Is Unlikely to Happen
  • Danske Has About $2.7 Billion as Buffer Against Fines, CEO Says; Danske Says BlackRock Increases Stake in Bank
  • Europe Auto Stocks Drop as Jefferies Downgrades, U.S. Backpedals
  • NordLB to Start Discussions With Bidders After Getting 4 Offers
  • BT Upgraded to Buy at Goldman, Cost Transformation in Focus

In FX, DXY – On the backfoot again with the index retreating further from 97.000 to trip stops at 96.400 and register a fresh post-G20 low of 96.372. This against the backdrop of broad Dollar losses vs. its major counterpart and a sharp retreat in US Treasury yields with the long-end of the curve outperforming. EUR – Also benefitting from the Greenback’s misfortunes and hopes that Italy vs. EU fiscal friction may be resolved amidst latest reports that PM Conte will deliver another revised 2019 budget draft with deficit circa 2.0%. EUR/USD back above 1.1400 (with 1.234bln option expiries between 1.1400-05) but just stopped short of a key Fib at 1.1424. JPY, GBP – Major G10 outperformers with cable briefly breaching yesterday’s high of 1.2825 (vs. intraday lows of 1.2720), absorbing offers around 1.2800-1.2820 on the way to a peak of 1.2839. The Pound may have derived support from another UK PMI beat (construction) having already gained impetus after the ECJ’s senior advisor stated that the UK can revoke Article 50 unilaterally (under certain conditions). The single currency vs. the pound holding just above 0.8900 vs. lows of 0.8890 with stops reported at 0.8950 (though some distance away). To the downside, 0.8861 is reported to be a support level. Elsewhere, the JPY is taking advantage of the ongoing buck decline and a marked downturn in risk sentiment after initial US-China truce euphoria, with USD/JPY taking out the Tenken line at 113.34, a Fib level at 113.17 and the 55DMA at 113.05 to hit a low of 112.75 (ahead of the psychological 112.50 and the 100-DMA at 112.25). EM –Turkish Lira remains pressured by the ongoing recovery in oil prices (large net importer). USD/TRY trading around 5.30 with concerns that the Central Bank may prematurely loosen policy (aided by the slowdown in CPI) also weighing on investors’ minds. However, the ZAR is the clear EM outperformer amid the latest SA GDP figures showing the country has recovered out of recession, while a rally gold (major producer) is also providing the Rand with impetus. Finally, CNY undergoes another day of strengthening in a continuation from the G20 momentum. USD/CNY trading comfortably below 6.8500 after the PBoC set the strongest Yuan fix since June last year.

In commodities, Brent (+2.2%) and WTI (+2.2%) have continued to rise on expectations for a cut at the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, with any cut likely to take into account the reduction to Canadian output which is also supporting oil prices. Prices came off highs after Saudi Energy Minister Al-Falih stated that it is premature to suggest that OPEC+ will reduce output at the meeting this week, in turn hinting division amongst OPEC members. Initial source reports suggest that OPEC+ are working towards a minimum output cut of 1.3mln BPD from the October levels. However, Russia’s position of a maximum output cut of 150k BPD is the main obstacle to this, as OPEC want a minimum cut of 250-350k BPD. With sources suggest that OPEC may delay cuts if Russia does not agree to a substantial output cut.  Looking ahead we have API data later in the day, with expectations being that crude stocks fell by 2.25mln/bbl for the week; if expectations prove accurate this will be the first crude oil draw since mid-September. Additionally, the weekly EIA release has been pushed back to Thursday at 16:00 GMT, due to the national day of mourning for Former President George H.W. Bush. Gold hit a session high of USD 1238.83, reaching its highest value since the end of October, as the dollar continues to weaken on a decline in US yields following the positive G20 trade outcomes. Steel futures have hit a 7-month low as prices are pressured by the oversupplied market, this comes after the positive sentiment seen in base metals on Monday from US-China trade developments. Separately, palladium (+1.0%) hit a record high of USD 1221.95 earlier in the session.

Looking at the day ahead, it’s not the most exciting for data releases with the October budget balance for France and October PPI report for the Euro Area the only prints of note. There’s nothing of note in the US however we are due to hear from the Fed’s Williams this afternoon when he holds a press briefing at the NY Fed. BoE Governor Carney is also due to attend a hearing of the Treasury Committee on the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: Fed’s Williams Holds Press Briefing at New York Fed

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Also in credit we’ve just published our two monthly chartbooks. The PowerPoint based one on global credit trends including issuance, flows, performance and relval ( link ) and also the excel based US credit strategy one with everything you wanted to know about US credit in a spreadsheet including up to date fundamentals ( link ). Elsewhere in today’s PDF link we’ve updated our PMI vs equities analysis. It shows equities as ‘cheap’ at the moment to current activity levels. Click on the full link for this report at the top for more with the commentary below.

Bourses yesterday closed well off their early highs with the follow through from the trade ceasefire a little disappointing. This reversal has continued in Asia to a large degree with the Nikkei (-1.72%), Hang Seng (-0.52%) and Kospi (-0.95%) all lower alongside most markets while the Shanghai Comp (+0.04%) is flattish. 10yr USTs yields are 11bps lower than their peak yesterday at 2.939% (-3bps this morning) with the curve flattening further (see below). S&P 500 futures are down -0.58% as we type.

Notwithstanding these disappointments, the reality is that yesterday US stocks did continue on what was a strong rebound from last week. Indeed after taking into account the +1.09% jump yesterday the S&P 500 is now up +5.99% over the last six sessions which is the strongest such run since February 2016 and second strongest since 2011. Tech led the way yesterday with the  NASDAQ rallying +1.51% and the NYSE FANG index returning +2.80%. This was after the STOXX 600 finished +1.03% in Europe and the DAX +1.85% – albeit with both also closing off the early session highs. It was a similarly strong day for credit with Euro and US high yield cash spreads tightening -6.5bps and -11.7bps respectively – the latter by the most in a month.

Despite the lack of follow through, there were some outsized winners. President Trump’s tweet about China agreeing to “reduce and remove tariffs on cars coming into China from the US” helped the S&P 500 autos sector to close +2.14% with Euro autos also surging +3.04%. In addition to that, we had the +4.30% jump for WTI oil (an extra +1% in Asia this morning) on the OPEC +/ Alberta production cuts stories we discussed yesterday. Markets are also digesting Qatar’s decision to exit OPEC from January 2019. Qatar has been a member since 1961 and while it’s not a huge volume contributor, the suggestion was that the country’s role as a diplomat had been significant. So a bit more uncertainty in the oil market. A reminder that the much anticipated OPEC meeting arrives Thursday/Friday.

Treasuries also reversed the post G-20 sell-off, which saw a +6.0bp climb this time yesterday result in a flat close. Two-year USTs did rise +3.5bps though leading to the 2s10s curve flattening to only 15bps (down to 13.5bps in Asia with 10yr another -3bps) and to the lowest in the current cycle. There was also some talk of 5 year notes inverting through both 3- and 2-year notes for the first time in this cycle as well. So the curve is getting very flat, especially at this point. As a reminder 2s10s has inverted ahead of all the last 9 recessions. The good news is we haven’t inverted yet and that the average time between the two is 16 months, with the quickest being 9 months. So we have some breathing space if history is your guide. The bad news is that we’re getting closer and closer and a circuit break to this flattening would be helpful to risk and the economy over the medium-term.

Several factors have combined to support the flattening move. The big rally in oil supported near-term inflation breakevens, with 2-year breakeven up +4.7bps and driving the entire move in nominal 2-year yields. Ten-year inflation breakevens were flat, explaining the flattening yield curve. WTI oil prices and 2-year breakevens have a high positive correlation of around 0.75. After both peaked on October 3, the former is down -30.5% and the latter has fallen by -57.0bps. At the long end, a steady flow of real money into Treasuries weighed on yields, possibly just due to rebalancing on the first day of the month after equities outperformed versus fixed income in November.

To a lesser extent, markets continued to focus on communications from Fed officials, though comments yesterday from Fed Board Members Clarida, Quarles, and Brainard broadly met expectations and confirmed the sentiment from Powell’s speech last week (note that Powell’s Wednesday congressional testimony has been cancelled and not yet rescheduled due to the President Bush’s funeral). They reiterated the recent emphasis on data dependency and described the economy as at or near full employment and inflation as at target.

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, a known dove who will be a voting member of the FOMC in 2019, departed somewhat from this assessment, saying that the economy “cannot be at maximum employment” if it continues to “create 200,000 jobs a month, month after month.”

In the US, the final manufacturing PMI was revised down 0.1pts to 55.3 however the more important ISM manufacturing printed at 59.3 (vs. 57.5 expected) and jumped 1.6pts from October. That’s still below the 61.3 high made back in August but was clearly reassuring in the face of some more mixed data of late. New orders (62.1 vs. 57.4 previously) and employment (58.4 vs. 56.8 previously) also lept higher, however the softer inflation story was maintained with prices paid falling over 10pts to 60.7 (vs. 70.0 expected). Some suggested that seasonals may have slightly distorted the decline. Another small negative was the fairly benign new export orders reading (52.2) which failed to climb from October.

Making less of a mark yesterday were the final global November manufacturing PMIs in Europe. Indeed the final Eurozone reading was revised up from the flash reading of 51.5 to 51.8 but was still the lowest since August 2016. That upward revision was helped by modest 0.2pts and 0.1pt upward revisions to Germany (to 51.8) and France (to 50.8), however these readings are also the lowest in 31 months and 26 months, respectively. Italy fell further below 50 to 48.6 and is now at a 47-month low, however, there was better news for Spain (52.6 and 3-month high) and Ireland (55.4 and 2-month high). Greece is even back to a 6-month high at 54.0, which means the 2.2pt differential over Germany is the highest based on data back to 2014. Meanwhile, there was a notable upward surprise in the UK (53.1 vs. 51.7 expected), a jump of 2pts from October and seemingly supported by domestic contracts picking up. In contrast, exports dropped for the second straight month with the report noting external weakness.

Outside of Europe, China catches the eye with the Shanghai Comp actually 27% ‘cheap’ compared to the implied PMI. Interestingly only the S&P 500 is pricing in an implied PMI above 50 with Europe in the 45-48 range and China 46.9. We try not to over-analyse these results, preferring to use them to look at more general levels of global under/over valuations. However, they do support our view that markets have probably got a bit too negative of late.

Over in Italy, two- and 10-year yields fell -17.4bps and -6.8bps yesterday as headlines suggested policymakers were receptive to less confrontational budget deficit targets. Prime Minister Conte is reportedly aiming to convince Salvini and Di Maio to shift the  budget deficit from 2.4% to below 2.0%. The latest economic data (yesterday’s included), which has shown a marked slowdown in growth momentum amid the higher BTP yields, may be incentivising policymakers to back away from their more confrontational stance. However these were all headlines. There’s no firm evidence as yet that the deficit target will be markedly lower but the momentum seems to be moving in that direction.  However last night Ansa reported Italian Premier Conte as saying that he is not trying to cut the budget deficit to below 2%.

Last night in the UK, Parliamentary Speaker Bercow granted an emergency debate to determine whether or not Prime Minister May is in contempt of Parliament over her refusal to release the government’s full legal advice about the proposed Withdrawal  Agreement. The debate will take place when Parliament convenes this morning, and it currently looks likely that May will lose a vote, since lawmakers from both sides of the aisle have expressed their interest to see the information.

As for the day ahead, it’s not the most exciting for data releases with the October budget balance for France and October PPI report for the Euro Area the only prints of note. There’s nothing of note in the US however we are due to hear from the Fed’s Williams this afternoon when he holds a press briefing at the NY Fed. BoE Governor Carney is also due to attend a hearing of the Treasury Committee on the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 78.60 POINTS OR 0.29% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 78.40 POINTS OR 0.29% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 538.71 OR 2.39%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.00%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8355 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 54.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.97 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8355AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8305: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

END

3 C CHINA

And now the true story as to what happened on Saturday:  China censors the USA’s “We Chat” posts on the issue of the Truce Trad War results on the working dinner with Trump.  It seems that there is a huge difference of opinion as to what was agreed upon.  You can probably bet the farm that when 90 ends there will be no appreciable agreement and Trump will have to increase his tariffs

(courtesy zerohedge)

What Really Happened On Saturday? China Censors US Embassy’s WeChat Posts On Trade War Truce

After a weekend in which the Trump administration, to much fanfare, announced a breakthrough in the trade war with China according to which Beijing would purchase substantial amounts of US farm products and remove barriers to trade in exchange for a delay of new tariffs and higher tariff rates, Donald Trump left his top advisers scrambling on Monday to explain just what was in the trade deal he claimed he’d struck with China to reduce tariffs on U.S. cars exported to the country – an agreement that doesn’t exist on paper and hasn’t been confirmed in Beijing.

As we reported earlier, Trump announced the deal in a two-sentence Twitter post late Sunday. The White House provided no additional information, and in a briefing in Beijing a few hours later, a spokesman for the foreign ministry declined to comment on any changes to car tariffs. Asked about the agreement on Monday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trump’s top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, coyly dialed back expectations and added qualifiers.

“I’ll call them ‘commitments’ at this point, which are – commitments are not necessarily a trade deal, but it’s stuff that they’re going to look at and presumably implement,” Kudlow told reporters during a briefing that followed TV interviews and informal briefings by him and Mnuchin earlier in the day.

That wasn’t the extent of the confusion. As part of the broader trade truce, the U.S. said it had agreed to hold off on raising tariffs Jan. 1 while negotiations took place. Bizarrely, Kudlow initially said that the Chinese had 90 days from Jan. 1 to come up with “structural changes” regarding intellectual property protections, forced technology transfer and other issues. The White House later corrected him to say that the 90 days actually began on Dec. 1, Saturday.

With both sides apparently having their own version of what actually transpired during the Saturday night dinner, the confusion was exacerbated by the absence of a joint statement from the U.S. and China following the dinner. Financial markets were left struggling to digest talks that the White House portrayed as a major victory for the president.

“That’s what happens when you don’t have the detailed negotiations going into the summit” and end up with the “broad swath of a 35,000-foot deal,” said Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “It’s risky. There’s certainly no guarantees that it will produce the outcomes that we want.”

But where things got truly bizarre, is that according to the SCMP, a social media post by the US embassy describing the trade agreement between the two nations was being partially censored on Monday, with the WeChat article visible but blocked from forwarding or sharing. The embassy WeChat posts about the outcome of the talks were in English and Chinese.

At the same time, separate posts on the death of former president George H.W. Bush were not similarly affected, and could be shared.

As noted above, the official statements made by China and the United States about what was agreed at the meeting in Argentina between presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump contained marked differences and omissions on both sides, which in the absence of a joint statement statement is to be expected. However, for China to censor the US version of events suggests that not only does China have a different take on what really happened on Saturday, but it also disagrees with the US take and – more importantly – wants to prevent the Chinese population from learning what Trump has been telling the US about what took place.

For example, the Chinese statement did not include mention of the 90-day deadline or a requirement that the nation begin buying more US farm, energy and other products.

The US embassy has repeatedly used its account on Tencent Holdings’ WeChat network and other social media to post statements and news critical of China, including about the detention of Muslims in China’s Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region. It was unclear if Beijing had ever gone so far as to censor official US communications, as it did today.

The US embassy declined to comment on a specific post, but a spokesman said the embassy faced regular and routine blocking of social media posts in China.

 

end

An absolute joke:  there is no deal over auto tariffs. Kudlow denies Trump tweet

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Auto Tariff Mystery Over: Kudlow Denies Trump Tweet

And just like that the “mystery” whether China would “reduce and remove” auto tariffs as Trump tweeted on Sunday night is over, and we have Trump’s top economic adviser to thank for it.

Larry Kudlow said the White House doesn’t yet have a deal with China to reduce tariffs on U.S.-made cars, backtracking from a tweet by the president just two days earlier.

“I think it’s coming, OK” Kudlow told Fox News Tuesday. “It hasn’t been signed and sealed and delivered yet.”

Embedded video

Aaron Rupar

@atrupar

.@SteveDoocy: The president tweeted out that “China has agreed to reduce & remove tariffs on cars coming into China from the US.” Is that true?@larry_kudlow: “I think it’s coming, ok?”

D: He already told us it’s a done deal!

K: “It hasn’t been signed & sealed & delivered yet”

 

 

Kudlow told reporters at the White House that he believes the president expects China will reduce its car tariffs to zero, and said that the car tafiff issue would be a ltimus test for trade relationships.

Meanwhile, as reported last night, officials in Beijing declined to comment on the tweet and haven’t confirmed such an agreement. Worse, China went so far as to censor WeChat posts by the US Embassy in China desribing the trade truce, confirming that China’s take of what happened on Saturday is drastically different from that of the US.

Trump sent car stocks soaring by announcing late Sunday that a deal had been reached. On Tuesday, the entire gap was closed…

… as it became increasingly clear that not only did the Trump administration not have a clear understanding of what happened, but was fabricating the narrative in real time just to achieve a market bounce.

end
Stocks sink as again Trump confirms that the trade war is not over.  I do not think that Xi will give in despite the fact that China is very hurt economically by these tariffs.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks Sink As Trump Confirms Trade War Not Over: “I’m A Tariff Man”

US equities are tanking at the open, led by Dow Transports (autos) following a confirmation from White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow that if a deal is not reached with China within 90 days, then the trade-war will re-escalate.

Pointedly, Kudlow said that if a deal with China is not reached then US would increase tariff rates to 25%, adding that Washington could add to that.

Stocks don’t like it…

 

Overnight saw Dow futures erase all the trade-truce gains, bounce, and are now fading again…

Seems like the yield curve is on to something..

Kudlow’s reality-check comments come as President Trump attempted to talk up the ‘deal’ – and the market – once again, noting that “negotiations have started…”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The negotiations with China have already started. Unless extended, they will end 90 days from the date of our wonderful and very warm dinner with President Xi in Argentina. Bob Lighthizer will be working closely with Steve Mnuchin, Larry Kudlow, Wilbur Ross and Peter Navarro…..

But even Trump admits to uncertainty on the ‘deal’: “seeing whether or not a REAL deal with China is actually possible…”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

……on seeing whether or not a REAL deal with China is actually possible. If it is, we will get it done. China is supposed to start buying Agricultural product and more immediately. President Xi and I want this deal to happen, and it probably will. But if not remember,……

“President Xi and I want this deal to happen, and it probably will…” … Or not…

And finally, Trump confirms he is not afraid to re-escalate: “Remember, I am a Tariff man.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….I am a Tariff Man. When people or countries come in to raid the great wealth of our Nation, I want them to pay for the privilege of doing so. It will always be the best way to max out our economic power. We are right now taking in $billions in Tariffs. MAKE AMERICA RICH AGAIN

“We are right now taking in $billions in Tariffs.” He is not wrong…

The question is, who is paying it?

However, Trump ends on a positive note.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

…..But if a fair deal is able to be made with China, one that does all of the many things we know must be finally done, I will happily sign. Let the negotiations begin. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

ITALY/EU

Crooks comments that various states are rising against the establishment and this will bring down the “empire”

(courtesy Alasdair Crooke/Strategic culture Foundation)

Italy, The EU, And The Fall Of The Roman Empire

Authored by Alastair Crooke via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

The EU leadership is trying to contain a crisis that is emerging at increasing speed: this challenge comprises the rise of contumacious states (i.e. the UK, Poland, Hungary and Italy), or of defiant, historic ‘cultural blocs’ (i.e. Catalonia) – all of whom are explicitly disenchanted with the notion of some coerced convergence towards a uniform EU-administered ‘order’, with its austere monetary ‘disciplines’. They even dismiss the EU’s claim to be, somehow, a part of a greater civilizational order of moral values.

If, in the post-war era, the EU represented an attempt to escape the Anglo-American hegemony, these new defiant blocks of ‘cultural resurgence’ which seek to situate themselves as interdependent, sovereign ‘spaces’ are, in their turn, an attempt to escape another type of hegemony: that of an EU administrative ‘uniformity’.

To exit this particular European order (which it originally was hoped, would differ from the Anglo-Americanimperii), the EU nevertheless was forced to lean on the latter’s archetypal construct of ‘liberty’ as empire’s justification (now metamorphosed into the EU’s ‘four freedoms’) on which the EU strict ‘uniformities’ (the ‘level-playing-field’, regulation in all aspects of life, tax and economic harmonization) have been hung. The European ‘project’ has become seen, as it were, as something that hollows out distinct and ancient ‘ways-of-being’.

Indeed, the very fact of their being attempted, at different levels, and in distinct geographical cultural regions, these assays indicate that that EU hegemony has already weakened to the point that it may not be able fully to hinder the emergence of this new wave. What is at stake precisely for the EU, is whether it can succeed to slow down, and curb in every way, the emergence of this process of cultural re-sovereigntisation, which of course, threatens to fragment the EU’s vaunted ‘solidarity’, and to fragment its matrix of a perfectly regulated customs union and common trade area.

It was Carl Schmitt – the political philosopher – however, who warned strongly against the possibility of what he called a negative katechon accelerator. This would seem to apply – exactly – to the situation in which the EU presently finds itself. This was a notion, held by the ancients, that historical events often have a ‘backstage’ contrarian dimension – that is to say that some given ‘intent’ or action (by say, the EU), may end upaccelerating precisely those processes which it was meant to slow down or to halt. For Schmitt, this explained the paradox through which a ‘braking action’ (such as the one being undertaken by the EU) may actually reverse itself, in an unwanted acceleration of the very processes the EU intends to oppose. Schmitt called this an ‘involuntary’ effect, since it produced effects opposed to the original intent. For the ancients, it simply reminded them that we humans often are merely history’s objects, rather than its causal subjects.

It is possible that the ‘braking action’ imposed on Greece, on Britain, on Hungary – and now on Italy – may precisely slide towards Schmitt’s Katechon. Italy has lingered in economic limbo for decades: Its new government feels obliged to relieve, in some way, the accumulated economic stresses of past years, and to try to re-kindle growth. But the state has a high level of debt to GDP, and the EU insists that Italy must endure the consequences: it must obey ‘the rules’.

Professor Michael Hudson (in a new book) explains how the EU’s ‘braking action’ in respect to Italian debt, represents a certain European strand of psychic rigidity that totally ignores historical experience, and may precisely result in Katechon: the opposite of what is intended. Interviewed by John Siman, Hudson says:

“In ancient Mesopotamian societies, it was understood that freedom was preserved by protecting debtors. A corrective model actually existed and flourished in the economic functioning of Mesopotamian societies, during the third and second millennia B.C. It can be termed the Clean Slate amnesty … It consisted of the necessary and periodic erasure of the debts of small farmers — necessary because such farmers are, in any society in which interest on loans is calculated, inevitably subject to being impoverished, then stripped of their property. and finally reduced to servitude … by their creditors.

[And was necessary too, as a] constant dynamic of history has been the drive by financial elites to centralize control in their own hands and manage the economy in predatory, extractive ways. Their ostensible freedom [comes] at the expense of the governing authority, and the economy at large. As such, it [stands as] the opposite of liberty – as conceived in Sumerian time …

So it was inevitable [in later centuries], that in Greek and Roman history, increasing numbers of small farmers became irredeemably indebted, and lost their land. It likewise was inevitable that their creditors amassed huge land holdings and established themselves in parasitic oligarchies. This innate tendency to social polarization – arising from debt unforgiveness – is the original and incurable curse on our post-eighth-century-B.C. Western Civilization, the lurid birthmark that cannot be washed away, or excised.

Hudson argues that the long, decline and fall of Rome begins, not as Gibbon had it, with the death of Marcus Aurelius, but four centuries earlier, following Hannibal’s devastation of the Italian countryside during the Second Punic War (218-201 B.C.). After that war, the small farmers of Italy never recovered their land, which was systematically swallowed up by the prædia, the great oligarchic estates, as Pliny the Elder observed. [Of course, today it is small and medium sized Italian businesses that are being swallowed up by oligarchic, pan-European corporations.]

But among modern scholars, as Hudson points out, “Arnold Toynbee is almost alone in emphasizing the role of debt in concentrating Roman wealth and property ownership” (p. xviii) — and thus in explaining the decline of the Roman Empire …

“Mesopotamian societies were not interested in equality,” he told his interviewer, “but they were civilized. And they possessed the financial sophistication to understand that, since interest on loans increases exponentially, while economic growth at best follows an S-curve, this means that debtors will, if not protected by a central authority, end up becoming permanent bondservants to their creditors. So Mesopotamian kings regularly rescued debtors who were getting crushed by their debts. They knew that they needed to do this. Again and again, century after century, they proclaimed ‘Clean Slate’ Amnesties.”

The EU has punished Greece for its profligacy – and is set to punish Italy if it flaunts EU fiscal rules. The EU is attempting what Schmitt termed a ‘breaking action’, to maintain its hegemony.

This is however, truly a case of the EU seeing the ‘mote’ (speck) in Italy’s eye, whilst ignoring the ‘beam’ in its own eye.The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s Lakshman Achuthan writes:

“The combined debt of US, the Eurozone, Japan and China has increased more than ten times as much as their combined GDP, over the past year. It’s remarkable that the global economy – slowing in sync, despite soaring debt – finds itself in a situation reminiscent of the Red Queen Effect. As the Red Queen says to Alice in Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking Glass, “Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”.

But that – running faster, taking on more debt – can only, in the end, be resolved with a major default (or through inflating the debt away). Look at the US: its GDP is growing at 2.5%; the US Federal debt is at 105% of GDP; the US Treasury is spending $1.5 billion on interest per day, and debt is growing at 5-6% of GDP. It is not sustainable.

Demands by Greece and Italy for debt relief may be regarded by some as special pleading, in the wake of past economic mismanagement; but Sumerian and Babylonian demands were based not on such – but rather, on a conservative tradition grounded in rituals of renewing the calendrical cosmos and its periodicities, Hudson tells us. The Mesopotamian idea of reform had ‘no notion’ of what we would call ‘social progress’. Instead, the measures the king instituted under his debt ‘jubilees’ were measures intended to restore a ‘backstage’, underlying order in society, or maat. “The rules of the game had not been changed, but everyone had been dealt a new hand of cards”.

Hudson notes, “the Greeks and the Romans replaced the cyclical idea of time and societal renewal, with that of linear time” [with convergence toward an ‘End Time’]: “Economic polarization became irreversible, not merely temporary” – as the idea of renewal became lost. Hudson might have added that linear time, and the loss of the imperative of dismemberment and renewal, has played a major role in underpinning all of Europe’s universalist projects of a linear itinerary towards human transformation (or, Utopianism).

This is the essential contradiction: that ineluctable economic divarication and polarization is transforming Europe into a continent torn by unresolved internal contradiction. On the one hand it castigates Italy for its debts, and on the other, it has been the ECB which has pursued interest rate ‘repression’ into negative territory, and has monetized debt to the equivalence of one-third of Europe’s global output. How can the EU not have expected banks and businesses not to have loaded up on ‘positive-carry’ debt? How can they have expected Banks not to have inflated their balance sheets with ‘free debt’ to the point of becoming ‘too big to fail’?

The global explosion of debt is a macro problem that vastly transcends the microcosm of Italy. Like the ancient Roman Empire, the EU has atrophied in its ‘order’ to become an obstacle to change, and, with no alternative, but to hold tight to a ‘braking action’ that will ultimately produce effects, completely at odds to the original intent (i.e. involuntary, negative Katechon).

end
FRANCE
Macron “folds” as the citizens prevail as he suspends the fuel tax for six months.  Macron has a lot more to do as the middle class are furious that he was about to tax them to death as well as totally wipe out the middle class because of non affordability of goods and services inside France. I am sure that the yellow vests will not be happy!
(courtesy zerohedge)

Macron Folds: France Suspends Fuel Tax Hike After

“Yellow Vest” Riots

With his popularity rating at record lows (recent polls put it at around 26%, on par with Hollande), his capital city burning and the populists he defeated during his stunning electoral victory last year making serious electoral inroads, French President Emmanuel Macron finally caved, and on Tuesday ordered a six month suspension of planned ‘fuel taxes’ which spurred widespread and destructive protests across France over the past three weeks.

After reportedly weighing declaring a state of emergency that would have cleared the way for an unprecedented crackdown on dissent, Macron decided that such measures would only intensify the popular opposition to his government. And according to Reuters, Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has declared a suspension of the staggeringly unpopular tax.

“No tax deserves to endanger the security of the nation,” Philippe said in a televised address, who on Monday held separate meetings with opposition party leaders, in which they demanded the scrapping of the planned increase in fuel taxes. The same day striking students closed down 100 high schools and rising fuel shortages were reported in some parts of the country.

A freeze of planned fuel tax increases was one of a number of measures called for in an editorial by 10 self-proclaimed gilets jaunes representatives published on Sunday in the Le Journal du Dimanche newspaper. They also demanded the holding of countrywide consultations over taxes.

The decision marked the first time that Macron has backed down from implementing an unpopular policy in his 18-month presidency as a result of the furious public response, and is set to unleash even more protests as the emboldened French people now realize that taking to the streets will results in success.

Populist

The suspension has come in the form of a “time limited moratorium”. Though a permanent suspension remains a possibility (particularly since demonstrators are already planning another round of violent rallies where 120,000 protesters were expected to try and reenact the storming of the Bastille). But there’s a catch: If taxes must be cut, then public spending will also be scaled back, Macron said; in other words once the smoke clears the anger will be even greater as social welfare programs are slashed.

The PM also explained natural gas tariffs won’t increase this winter.

Rich

The “yellow vest” movement – which kicked off with paralyzing protests on Nov. 17 as word of the protests spread on social media – has won a crucial victory in its attempt to force Macron to reverse a policy that many have decried for squeezing household spending at a time when France’s economy (and indeed economies throughout Western Europe) is struggling with tepid growth. The protests have even had a negative impact French shares.

France

The movement was named for the highly visible “yellow vests” that all French motorists are required to store in their cars. Macron justified the gas tax by saying it was essential for combating climate change. But his decision to suspend the tax marks a deeply embarrassing moment for the president, who is in Poland this week to discuss actions to combat climate change with other European leaders.

Gas

Meanwhile, amid the pervasive dissatisfaction with Macron and his policies, the fuel tax protests morphed into a broader anti-Macron movement, as the French people have criticized him for policies that they believe favor the rich over the working and middle-class.

Already, a handful of deaths have occurred during protests over the past few weekends, further stoking the public’s anger. Acts of violence were widespread during the latest rally, as the Arc de Triomphe was defaced and roads off the Champs Elysees were damaged. The demonstrations have reportedly hurt retail spending and damaged the French economy during a holiday season that many retailers had been depending on to help push them into the black.

Macron successfully marketed himself as a pragmatic centrist during the 2017 French election. But a series of gaffes, scandals and policy missteps have helped him earn a reputation as the “President of the Rich” (before serving as president, Macron was a former economy minister and investment banker). To help combat this negative perception ahead of European Elections next year, Macron said he’s considering other “populist” policies like raising the minimum wage.

French

While it wasn’t immediately clear if Macron’s decision to suspend the tax would be enough to placate the seething anger of the French people – and it is safe to say his caving has merely emboldened the French to demand even more – but party officials have cautioned that he might need to back down on other policy “reforms” like cutting pension benefits.

In short order he made changes to the labour code to make hiring and firing easier, he took on the rail unions by forcing through changes to the national rail company, and he cut wealth taxes in a bid to stimulate investment.

However, in the process he earned the tag “president of the rich” for seeming to do more to court big business and ease the tax burden on the wealthy. Discontent has steadily risen among blue-collar workers and the middle-class struggling to make ends meet.

The government’s decision to push ahead with an increase in fuel taxes from January, part of a longer-term effort to discourage fossil fuel use, angered people in rural or outer urban areas who use their cars more.

It was not immediately clear if suspending the tax rise would be enough to placate the “yellow vests” or head off a repeat of the violence that erupted in Paris on Saturday, which officials said was driven by extreme groups on the far-left and far-right, such as the Black bloc and anarchist factions.

Recent polls have shown that most of France supports the cause of the yellow vests. Similar protests have broken out around Europe, spreading to Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands.

Meanwhile, more protests are scheduled: Christophe Castaner, the French interior minister, said on Sunday that measures under consideration by the government include the imposition of a state of emergency and the deployment of soldiers to help contain the next protests, which are scheduled for Saturday.

end

Macron is an idiot:  he does not read his people.  As I indicated above, they do not want a suspension of the fuel tax which is going to pay for the sins of climate change.  They want all gas taxes to be immediately eliminated.  And predictability, the student protests intensified immediately..

(courtesy zerohedge)

French ‘Yellow Vests’ Reject Macron’s Six-Month Tax Delay As Student Protests

Intensify

Despite French President Emmanuel Macron letting his people “eat cake” with a six-month suspension of the government’s new “climate change” fuel taxes, the so-called “Yellow Vest” movement which has been protesting throughout France for more than three weeks is still spitting mad.

“We didn’t want a suspension, we want the past increase in the tax on fuels to be canceled immediately,” said Yellow Vest organizer Benjamin Cauchy on BFM TV. “Suspending the tax to re-instate it in six months is taking the French people for a ride. French people aren’t sparrows waiting for crumbs from the government.”

The president’s silence drew the wrath of some. “Macron has still not deigned to talk to the people,” said Laetitia Dewalle, a Yellow Vests spokeswoman, on BFM TV. “We feel his disdain. He maintains his international engagements but doesn’t speak to the people.”

Sebastien Chenu, a spokesman for Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party which has supported the Yellow Vests in hopes of capturing their votes, said on LCI that “the French won’t be fooled. The government has understood nothing, it’s just playing for time.” –Greenwich Time

Others, however, may have been assuaged by the “limited time moratorium” on the taxes – as a Tuesday BVA opinion poll for La Tribune reveals that 70% of French citizens surveyed think the postponement justifies stopping the Yellow Vest protests.

Embedded video

DAILY SABAH

@DailySabah

Footage apparently shows “yellow vest” protesters in Narbonne drive forklift hoisting a burning car into a toll booth as worst urban riots in a decade leave France reelinghttp://sabahdai.ly/6fZ70y

Embedded video

TicToc by Bloomberg

@tictoc

Watch police bodycam footage from the police when they clashed with “Yellow Vest” demonstrators in Paris #GilletsJaunes

Meanwhile, French police ordered the cancellation of two football matches scheduled for Saturday, while French interior minister Christophe Castaner told lawmakers on Tuesday that additional security personnel would reinforce the 65,000 police and gendarmes during this Saturday’s planned protests. Some police unions have floated the idea of drafting the army as backup, according to Paris-based journalist Catherine Field.

Catherine Field@CatherineField

#French Interior min tells lawmakers additional security personnel will reinforce the 65,000 police & gendarmes on duty this Saturday. With calls for fresh #yellowvest protests in Paris this coming weekend, some police unions asking the gvt to draft in the army as backup.

franceinfo

@franceinfo

“Nous allons mobiliser samedi des forces en nombre supplémentaire encore aux 65 000 qui ont été mobilisées”, affirme le ministre de l’Intérieur, Christophe Castaner, au Sénathttps://bit.ly/2PiU6b4

Embedded video

French students, meanwhile, have intensified their protests around the country – setting ire to buildings and engaging in violent clashes with the police. The students have “gradually started to get involved” with the Yellow Vest movement, leading to riots in southwest France, Lyon, Marseille, Bordeaux and the city of Orleans. A school in Blagnac, near Toulouse was reportedly set on fire Tuesday, according to Reuters.

Macron’s backing down comes as his popularity hit a new low. A poll by Ifop for Paris Match magazine and Sud-Radio released Tuesday found the president’s support had fallen six points to 23 percent. Philippe was at 26 percent. While Macron and parliament, where his party holds a majority, don’t face new elections until 2022, the reversal on taxes may undermine the rest of his reform agenda.

The protesters, who started out blockaded traffic across France, brought their fight to Paris over the last two weekends. They defaced the Arc de Triomphe, burned hundreds of cars and blocked roads and fuel depots. –Greenwich Time

Meanwhile, the Yellow Vest protests continue to take their toll on French businesses – with big-box retailers suffering an average 8% decline in sales on Saturday per Nielsen.

zerohedge@zerohedge

French “Yellow Vest” protests led to an average 8% decline in sales of consumer goods at big-box retailers on Saturday Dec. 1: Nielsen

With all of that said, it will be interesting to see what Saturday brings.

end

UK

The European Court of Justice has just given an advisory opinion and it states that the UK can unilaterally cancel Brexit by a vote of its people

This may come in handy for May who really is a “REMAINDER”

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Politically Independent” European Court Says UK Can

Unilaterally Cancel Brexit

They say that if you repeat the same lie often enough, you will start to believe it.

Ever since the prospect of a second Brexit referendum  – affectionately called “the People’s vote” – first found traction among pro-European Labour and Conservative MPs, UK Prime Minister Theresa May has categorically denied that this would ever be a viable option. But at the same time, she has also intimated during speeches that, if her deal with the EU is defeated in Parliament, it could mean “no Brexit at all”. The motivation behind this inconsistency shouldn’t be hard to spot: May needs a cudgel to browbeat defiant European Research Group MPs into supporting her plan – even as her government has chosen to withhold the attorney general’s full legal interpretation of the draft deal, stoking suspicions that May is trying to cover up some of the less popular attributes of the deal, like the possibility that it could leave the UK permanently yoked to the EU customs union without the representation to help shape trade rules that it enjoys presently.

Brexit

This hasn’t stopped Wall Street banks from pricing in a relatively high likelihood of a second referendum (Deutsche Bank recently put the odds at 30%, while others have put it higher).

Opposition

With opponents of her government threatening contempt or censure proceedings if she refuses to cave, May is swiftly running out of options to try and drum up support for her draft deal (though a handful of key cabinet ministers have come out in support of her “imperfect” deal).

Fortunately, on Tuesday, the purportedly “politically independent” European Court of Justice has just handed her a new tool that could come in handy during the debate over the deal as May works to whip up votes. To wit, the ECJ issued an advisory opinion on Tuesday that May would be allowed to legally reverse the triggering of Article 50 of the LIsbon Treaty – a decision that would effectively reverse the Brexit process.

While the opinion is “purely advisory”, the Court typically follows this type of guidance in its rulings.

While the opinion is purely advisory, the Luxembourg-based court usually follows such advice. A date for a final rulings hasn’t been set yet but could still come this month, potentially even before the U.K. Parliament’s Dec. 11 vote on May’s Brexit deal.

To be sure, it’s certainly possible that, if May had tried to reverse the invocation of Article 50 unilaterally, UK court would have backed her up. But by offering its advisory opinion, the ECJ is effectively handing May an ‘out’. If the UK is careening toward a ‘no deal’ exit during the days before Brexit Day, May could rely on this opinion to justify threats that there will be – as she said the other week – “no Brexit at all” – if MPs don’t vote for her deal.

Bloomberg hinted at this in its story about the ruling:

“The possibility continues to exist” to revoke the Brexit notice “until such time as the withdrawal agreement is formally concluded,” Advocate General Manuel Campos Sanchez-Bordona of the EU Court of Justice said in a non-binding opinion on Tuesday.

This opinion – fought hard by May’s government – could actually turn out to be a weapon she can use to her advantage as the country heads into uncharted Brexit territory. The possibility that the U.K. can go back on its decision will be alarming to Brexit hardliners, encouraging them to grudgingly support May’s much-maligned roadmap for how the country should quit the block.

Then again, BBG reasoned that using the ruling as a cudgel could backfire by encouraging pro-European lawmakers to push for the cancellation of Brexit.

Still, a decision saying that Article 50 can be unilaterally revoked favors those who want to remain in the EU and could help those campaigning to thwart Brexit with a second referendum. It could also encourage some wavering pro-EU lawmakers to vote against May’s deal.

It would put “the decision about our future back into the hands of our own elected representatives – where it belongs,” pro-Remain lawyer Jolyon Maugham, who brought the lawsuit, said on Twitter. “On this critical issue, I’m sure MPs will now search their consciences and act in the best interests of our country.”

Former UKIP leader Nigel Farage argued that the recommendation is just the latest sign that “every effort” to stop Brexit is being made on both sides of the channel.

Nigel Farage

@Nigel_Farage

ECJ says the UK can revoke Article 50 without permission. Every effort is being made on both sides of the Channel to stop Brexit.

After the ruling, a spokesman for May’s government reiterated that “it remains a matter of firm Government policy that Article 50 will not be revoked.”

And while that may be true for now, if May’s draft deal doesn’t pass during next week’s vote, forcing both sides to step up preparations for a ‘no deal’ Brexit, the political calculus could swiftly change.

end
This is interesting: as we reported Theresa May made a stupid move by withholding  legal advice on the Brexit, something that Parliamentarians had to see.  Theresa May lost her contempt vote and that caused Cable to slide badly.  The best thing that can happen would be for Gr., Britain to leave and without paying anything.  They will all run to her doorstep and try to make trade deals. Enough with this garbage
(courtesy zero hedge)

Cable Slides To 18-Month Low After May Loses Historic Contempt Vote

Update: Following what appears to be one of the biggest political miscalculations of May’s tenure as prime minister (a span that includes her disastrous general election decision the summer before last), the prime minister has returned to warning rebellious ministers that it’s either her deal, or no deal – and if it’s ‘no deal’, lawmakers might want to think twice about the consequences of that outcome. Because if MPs refuse to rally behind her deal, May said, it will increase the likelihood of a second Brexit referendum as the UK seeks to avoid a ‘hard’ Brexit.

In other words, it’s either “this deal, no deal, or no Brexit.”

  • BREXIT: UK PM MAY SAYS WILL WORK WITH PARLIAMENT TO PREPARE MANDATE FOR NEXT STAGE OF EU NEGOTIATIONS
  • BREXIT: UK PM MAY SAYS CHOICE BEFORE PARLIAMENT IS CLEAR: THIS DEAL, NO DEAL, OR RISK OF NO BREXIT
  • BREXIT: UK PM MAY SAYS LAWMAKERS SHOULD THINK ABOUT THE FORCES A SECOND REFERENDUM WOULD UNLEASH
  • BREXIT: UK PM MAY SAYS A SECOND REFERENDUM WOULDN’T BRING COUNTRY TOGETHER
  • BREXIT: UK PM MAY SAYS A CLOSE SECOND REFERENDUM WOULD MEAN LOSING SIDE CALLS FOR THIRD ONE

* * *

The pound has fallen to its lowest level of the year after Theresa May lost a key Parliamentary vote on Tuesday that will force her administration to publish legal advice that she had hoped to keep secret. After her government was found in contempt by Parliament – 311 to 293 – for defying an earlier vote demanding that No. 10 Downing Street release the full details of Attorney General Geoffrey Cox’s legal advice on May’s Brexit Treaty.

May elicited widespread outrage on Monday when her office released a “detailed summary” of Cox’s legal advice that many suspected stripped out controversial findings about the possibility that the UK could become “trapped” within the EU Customs Union if a new trade deal with the EU wasn’t reached before the end of the transition period in 2020. A prime minister being found in contempt in Parliament is an action without precedent in recent British history. Cable dropped to a $1.2656 on the vote – its lowest level since June 2017.

Pound

What’s worse, this stunning defeat comes on a day when debate over May’s plan was supposed to begin ahead of a planned Dec. 11 vote. Andrea Leadsom, leader of the House of Commons, said the government will begrudgingly release the full legal advice on Wednesday.

As analysts were quick to point out, this doesn’t bode well for May’s prospects for passing her deal.

“The outcome from the government contempt vote could be an early indication that the proposed Brexit deal may not pass the House next week,” Credit Agricole strategist Valentin Marinov.

Now, May’s government must decide which version of the legal advice will be released. A “short” version provided to her cabinet, or something more substantial.

As a reporter for the Guardian pointed out, Theresa May must have been counting on the support of the 26 Tory rebels who backed the Grieve Amendment (the motion to hold the government in contempt). Otherwise, May would have caved sooner and spared herself the embarrassment.

Jessica Elgot

@jessicaelgot

Tory whips must have believed they could squeak this. Otherwise what is the point of allowing the vote to happen to make a finding of contempt? Why not just cave at the despatch box before the vote?

Of course, if May’s deal is defeated, it increases the likelihood that the UK will head for either a ‘no deal’ Brexit (chaos), no Brexit, a ‘Super Norway’ deal (or one that binds the UK closer to the EU) or a “Black Box” type deal, as the flow chart below suggests:

Brexit

end

Nigel Farage quits its own UKIP party saying it is moving too far to the right. He wants a brand new Brexit Party.  Maybe Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage can get together to create it?

(courtesy zerohedge)

Nigel Farage Quits UKIP, Says UK Needs New ‘Brexit’ Party

You’ve hear of Brexit. Now it’s time for ‘Faragexit’ (pronounced ‘FAR-AJ-ECS-IT’).

Nigel Farage, the man widely credited as the architect of the Brexit referendum, is leaving the UK Independence Party – a party that he used to lead – because of concerns that its members are becoming too closely associated with Islamophobia, and participating in street gangs.

Farage – who announced his decision on his radio show and in a letter published by the Daily Telegraph – explained his decision by accusing the party of drifting too far to the right. Its members are now too focused on marching in support of far-right groups like the English Defence League and its founder, Tommy Robinson – whom Farage singled out for criticism in his letter – and not focused enough on winning elections.

“And so, with a heavy heart, and after all my years of devotion to the party, I am leaving Ukip today. There is a huge space for a Brexit party in British politics, but it won’t be filled by Ukip.”

Farage presently serves as a minister in the European Parliament.

Asa Bennett

@asabenn

Farage: The party of elections is quickly becoming a party of street activism, with our members being urged to attend marches rather than taking the fight to the ballot box.

Asa Bennett

@asabenn

Farage: The very idea of Tommy Robinson being at the centre of the Brexit debate is too awful to contemplate.

And so, with a heavy heart, and after all my years of devotion to the party, I am leaving Ukip today.

Peter Walker

@peterwalker99

Nigel Farage has left Ukip. Is it like the ravens leaving the Tower of London, or does it just leave Gerard Batten & Tommy Robinson to sail serenely into a far-right future?https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/04/heavy-heart-leaving-ukip-not-brexit-party-nation-badly-needs/ 

With a heavy heart, I am leaving Ukip. It is not the Brexit party our nation so badly needs

At the Annual Ukip Conference held this year in Birmingham, I spoke at the Gala dinner.

telegraph.co.uk

Speculation that Farage might join forces with Boris Johnson to start a new pro-Brexit party is already beginning to spread.

Xenophon Law@TheXentertainer

With @Nigel_Farage now leaving the wholly irrelevant UKIP, and @BorisJohnson now seemingly unlikely to ever be Tory Leader, will both join forces under this #NewParty?

Having worked together with Vote Leave, anything is possible in this generation’s politics.

end

 

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

IRAN/USA

Iran again threatens to block the key Strait of Hormuz, which is the key transit choke point.  We have a few USA aircraft carriers en route to the area

(courtesy zerohedge)

Iran Again Threatens To Block Key Oil Transit Choke

Point As U.S. Aircraft Carrier En Route

Here we go again: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has once more threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which is vital to up to one-third of all global oil shipping as it’s a key transit choke point in the Persian Gulf.

On Tuesday Iranian state broadcasts carried his words, saying “if someday, the United States decides to block Iran’s oil (exports), no oil will be exported from the Persian Gulf.”Hefurther vowed that the United States will not be able to prevent Iran from exporting its crude — something the White House has repeatedly pledged to take down to zero exports through international allies and economic blockade through sanctions.

A prior Iranian Navy drill off the Strait of Hormuz, RFE/RLThe threat comes less than 24 hours after US officials told the Wall Street Journalthat an aircraft carrier group led by the USS John C. Stennis is set to arrive in the Persian Gulf “within days” — which will bring a close what’s been described as the longest period in two decades that a carrier group was absent from the region. Specifically the unnamed officials identified the purpose as to “exhibit a show of force against Iran”.

The carrier deployment, though previously scheduled, was announced after the US condemned Iran’s test firing a medium-range nuclear capable ballistic missile on Sunday.

“The United States should know that we are selling oil and we will sell our oil and it cannot block Iran’s oil export,” he said on Tuesday addressing the people of Shahroud in Semnan province broadcast live on state TV.

The United States and the Israeli regime cannot stand the idea of a powerful and dignified Iran, and the Iranian nation will not bow to them, Rouhani highlighted, adding, “the United States failed in launching a coup in our country. They were after separating Khuzestan province, imposing sanctions against the country, and undermining Iran’s power, but they failed. It should be studied why the US is angry with Iran and Iranians.” MEHR News Agency

Though it’s not the first time such a threat was made, tensions have never been higher as less than a day prior Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Brussels to discuss “ways to halt together Iranian aggression in the region”. Hours after the meeting the Israeli Defense Forces launched ‘Operation Northern Shield’ along the Lebanese borderto “expose and thwart” what officials have dubbed “terror tunnels” stretching from Lebanon into northern Israel

According to the AP, President Rouhani’s threat was welcomed by hardline clerics and military officials, including Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Revolutionary Guard’s elite Quds Force.

USS John C. Stennis nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, via Defence BlogIn early November, for example, a prominent hardline cleric told a Friday prayer gathering in Mashhad, considered Iran’s spiritual capital, that Iran has the power to “instantly” create conditions for $400 a barrel oil prices if it decides to act in the Persian Gulf.

Shia cleric Ayatollah Ahmad Alamolhoda grabbed headlines at the time by declaring, “If Iran decides, a single drop of this region’s oil will not be exported and in 90 minutes all Persian Gulf countries will be destroyed.”

And during the prior summer, after similar threats were issued from Tehran the spokesman for the US military’s Central Command, Captain Bill Urban, told the Associated Press that US sailors and its regional allies “stand ready to ensure the freedom of navigation and the free flow of commerce wherever international law allows”.

It appears the presence of the USS John C. Stennis is aimed at preventing such a possibility of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz from happening. Officials also said the carrier group will support the US war in Afghanistan as well as operations against remnant ISIS pockets in Iraq and Syria. But despite current tensions with Iran, Pentagon officials have underscored that the carrier mission was previously scheduled, while also touting its Iranian deterrent mission.

In recent comments over Iran’s developing ballistic missile program, the State Department’s special representative on Iran, Brian Hook, said the “military option” is on the table.

“We have been very clear with the Iranian regime that we will not hesitate to use military force when our interests are threatened. I think they understand that. I think they understand that very clearly,” Hook said late last week.

“I think right now, while we have the military option on the table, our preference is to use all of the tools that are at our disposal diplomatically,” he added.

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

end

7  OIL ISSUES

 

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

 

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1406 UP .0052 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL RED

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.79  DOWN 0.795 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2809 UP   0.0084  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3179  DOWN .0025 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 52 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1406/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 11.16 POINTS OR 0.42%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 78.40 POINTS OR 0.29%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  1.99% /EUROPEAN BOURSES DEEPLY IN THE RED 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED  DOWN 538.71 POINTS OR 2.39%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED RED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 78.40 POINTS OR 0.29% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.16  POINTS OR 0.42%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN  1.00%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 538.71 POINTS OR 2.39%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1239.25

silver:$14.56

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.96% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.23 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 96.50 DOWN 54  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.81% UP 1    in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.07%  DOWN 2  BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.49% DOWN 0  IN basis point yield from MONDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.16 UP 1    POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 166 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.26%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.90% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1339 DOWN .0015 or 15 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 112.61 UP  0 .975 OR 98 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2719 DOWN .0004( POUND DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 49 basis points to 1.3249

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.8860-  ON SHORE  (YUAN DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8452(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.4182

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.07%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 9 IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.89 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.04 DOWN 14 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.91 DOWN 13 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 39.65 POINTS OR 0.56%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 130.14 POINTS  OR 1.14%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 41.32 POINTS OR 0.82%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 117.90 POINTS OR 1.28%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN: 268.93 POINTS OR 1.37%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 53.20 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 61.88 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    66.83  THE CROSS LOWER BY .32 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER by 32 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.41182 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.26 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :52/52

 

BRENT:61.30

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.91%..

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.17%/.

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1343 ( DOWN 12 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.78 DOWN .800 (YEN UP 80 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.06 DOWN 22 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2730 DOWN 5 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.3894

the Russian rouble:  66.90 DOWN .39 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 39 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3259 DOWN 60 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8360  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.8491 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.31%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN 799.36 POINTS OR 3.10%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 283.09  points or 3.80% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  20.74 CLOSED UP  4.30

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.751%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/huge jump today

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Bloodbath – From Triumphant Truce To Deal Dysphoria In 36 Hours

Trump and Xi were the powdered sugar awesomeness on the top of the Powell vanilla latte yumminess from last week… and then this happens…

 

 

China stocks held up overnight…

 

European Stocks continued to give back Sunday night gains…

 

US Equity indices rapidly erased not just Sunday night gains but Friday afternoon’s pre-emptive push and Wednesday’s Powell Put levels…

“The Dow vigilantes have managed to get both a Powell put and a Trump put for the market,” said Ed Yardeni, lead strategist at his namesake research firm. “Jerome Powell turned into Santa Claus last Wednesday, markets certainly reacted joyously to his hints that Fed tightening would occur at an even more gradual pace. So if Jerome Powell is Santa Claus, then the two elves are President Trump and President Xi.”

But the Grinch just took that all away… From Friday’s close…

On the day, Trannies worst day since Brexit, but it was all a disaster…

 

Dow down 800 points!

 

The S&P stalled at 2800 once again and completed a triple top of lower highs…

 

All major indices crashed back below their key technical support levels…

 

TICK shows the massive sell programs hitting as stocks broke key technical levels. Momentum stocks collapsed…

 

Trannies and Small Caps are back in the red for 2018.

 

Bank stocks have been battered, tracking the curve lower…

For some context:

  • Global Systemically Important Banks are down 30% from 52-week highs.
  • US Financials down 14.5% from 52-week highs.
  • Goldman Sachs is down 33% from 52-week highs.

And regional banks crashed most since Brexit…

But while banks were busted, FANG stocks got monkey-hammered… back into bear market (down 22% from 52-week highs)

(FB -36%, AMZN -17%, NFLX 34%, GOOGL -17%. AAPL -24%)

Stocks plunged back to bond’s reality…

 

Treasury yields tumbled today with the long-end dramatically outperforming and collapsing the yield curve…

 

The 10Y TSY yield plunged below 2.90% intraday…

 

But if Cyclicals (rel to Defensives) are right, 30Y Yields have a long way to go…

 

And Long Bond futures broke back above their 200DMA…

 

The yield curve collapsed too with 2s5s, 3s5s inverted and 2s10s into single-digits…

 

All of which brought out a herd of asset-gatherers and commission-takers to explain how this is a dip, not an inversion… or that it’s different this time because of central bank intervention… not it is not!!

 

And the Eurodollar curves are now pricing in an extremely dovish trajectory…

 

Massively decoupled from The Fed’s guess…

 

Credit markets smashed wider today and equity protection soared (VIX>21) playing catch up…

 

The dollar repeated yesterday’s fund by diving overnight and ramping from the European open… (note it remains lower from Powell’s Put last Wednesday)…

 

The offshore yuan exploded higher (near 3-month highs)…but began to fade this afternoon after tagging september highs

 

But the Turkish Lira was hammered today…

Cryptos were also slammed today led by

 

PMs managed modest gains on the day as Crude and Copper rolled over…

 

Gold held on to gains as oil slipped ahead of tonight’s inventory data…

 

Finally, the biggest picture of all signals that volatility is coming… just like winter…

And with markets closed tomorrow, we suspect this is the scene on many trading floors…

Embedded video

Michael Batnick

@michaelbatnick

Bulls and bears RN

209 people are talking about this

And this did not age well…

end

 

 

market trading

 

Dow Futures Are Down 1000 Points From Sunday Night Highs

“…that escalated quickly…”

The Dow is down 700 points today…

The S&P also collapsed – stalling at 2711 as Nomura explained…

and

Stocks & The Yield Curve Are Collapsing

Update: The bloodbath continues and US equities have erased all the gains from Friday afternoon’s hope-filled surge…

The Dow is down 600 points…

With all major indices crashing below their key technical levels…

10Y Yields are tumbling too…

Crashing the 2s10s curve to single-digits…

 

*  *  *

As we detailed earlier, the euphoria of Sunday night’s futures open has collapsed into a dysphoric dump as stocks tumble into the red, erasing all the trade-truce gains…

For now it is unclear the catalyst for the latest leg lower, but technicals (Dow/S&P breaking key moving averages), or geopolitics (US threatens Russia over INF Treaty), or even Brexit (UK Govt found in contempt) have been cited…

 

This leg lower hit as Cable crashed after a UK government vote to find the government in contempt over its refusal to release legal advice on Brexit. The 311-293 vote shows the uphill battle Theresa May faces in getting her Brexit deal passed next week and the potential political standoff ahead.

 

And the yield curve inversion continues to accelerate.

“that wasn’t supposed to happen…”

end

market data/

 

 

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

TOM Luongo believes that Trump has made some serious errors..did Trump fold on everything at the G20?

see for yourself..he is probably correct and Trump will have major problems in the next two years.

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

“The End Of The Beginning” – Did Trump Fold On

Everything At G-20?

Authored by Tom Luongo,

I knew there was something wrong with Donald Trump’s presidency the day he bombed the airbase at Al-Shairat in Syria.  It was a turning point.  I knew it was a mistake the moment he did it and argued as such at the time.

No act by him was more contentious.

It cost me hundreds of followers gained throughout the campaign who wanted to believe Trump was playing 4-D chess.  My Periscopes went from being events to afterthoughts.

Those that left needed to believe this because they had invested so much in him.

They had to believe he was playing some deep game with Putin to bring peace to the region.

He wasn’t.

I was right and truth is painful.  The need for him to be Orange Jesus was so strong they created Qanon and the ‘science’ of political horoscope as slowly but surely Trump was stripped of all of his power except that of complaining about how unfair it all is.

That day he did something in the moment, with bad intelligence and let fly with tomahawks which Russian and Syrian air defenses misdirected and/or shot down.

Empty President

His goal was to show everyone there was a new, strong sheriff in town.

All it did was weaken him.

The neocons praised him as presidential.  They began to get their hooks in him then.  But truly, Trump was destroyed before he took office, giving up Michael Flynn, expelling Russian diplomats and compromising his cabinet picks.

Because making war is the only true test of a President to the laptop bombardiers who control foreign policy.  With that one act Trump’s days as an independent agent in D.C. were numbered.

And since then the hope has been that given the enormity of the opposition to his Presidency he was still fighting for what he campaigned on — no nation building, bring the empire home, protect the borders, and clean up the corruption.

He’s made a few minor changes but not enough to change the course of this country and, by extension, the world.

The people want this change.  Those with the power don’t.

G-20 Ghost

So here we are with a pathetic Trump outclassed at the G-20, a meeting he should dominate but instead is ushered around like a child, given poor earpieces and looking a little lost.  He’s only allowed to have one meeting of note by his handlers, with China’s Xi Jinping.

Because that meeting wasn’t going to end with anything damaging to the long-term plan.  Trump’s tariff game is tired and all it will do is hasten the demise of U.S. competitiveness in the very industries he wants us to be competitive in.

Because tariffs are a band-aid on the real problems of bureaucracy, corruption, waste and sloth within an economy.  They are not a product of China stealing our technology (though they have).

And that $1 trillion deficit Trump is running?  Music to the ears of the globalists who want the U.S. brought low. More military spending.  More boondoggles the banks can cut a nice big check to themselves for with funny money printed without risk. This can go on for a few more years until it doesn’t matter anymore.

Trump’s folding on meeting Putin is the final nail in his presidency’s coffin.  He’s not even allowed to make statements on this issue anymore.  That’s for Sarah Sanders, Mike Pomposity and John Bolt-head to do.

You know, the grown-ups in the room.

No.  Putin and Trump met once when they weren’t supposed to and since then Trump has been getting smaller and smaller.  Sure, he held some rallies for the mid-terms to shore up his base for a few weeks while the Democrats stole more than a dozen House seats, three governorships and a couple of Senate seats, but hey he’s still working hard for no pay.

Please.

Trump needed to show some real moral courage and speak with Putin about the Kerch Strait incident like men, not sulk in the corner over a couple of ships. And yet his still throws his full support behind a butcher like Mohammed bin Salman because arms sales and Iran.

Putin, for his part, makes no bones about doing business with the Saudis.  He knows that bin Salman is creating a quagmire for Trump while driving the U.S. and European Deep State mad.

 

 

Hence:

Putin refuses to apologize for thwarting our plans to overthrow hi

Hence:

Putin refuses to apologize for thwarting our plans to overthrow hi

Putin refuses to apologize for thwarting our plans to overthrow him in Russia and steal Ukraine.

Time Enough to Win

For this Secretary of Defense James Mattis calls Putin, “A slow learner.”  This is a flat-out threat that Mattis has more coming Putin’s way.  But in fact, it is Mattis who is the slow learner since he still thinks Putin isn’t three steps ahead of him.

Which he is.

The game is all about time and money.  And thanks to Mattis and, yes, Trump, Putin will win the war of attrition he is playing.

Because that is what has been going on here from the beginning.  Iran, China and Russia know what the U.S. power brokers want and they knew Trump would always cave to them.  So, they knew exactly how to get Trump to over-commit to a strategy that cannot and will not ever come to fruition.

I warned that Trump’s blind-spot when it comes to Iran was his weakness.  I warned that he would eventually justify breaking every foreign policy promise to fulfill his plan to unite the Sunni world behind him and Israel by giving them Iran.

The End of the Beginning

Welcome to today.

And welcome to the end of Trump’s presidency because now he is pot-committed to regime change while the vultures circle him domestically.   He has become Bush the Lesser with arguably better hair.

He has alienated everyone the world over with sanctions and tariffs, hence his desire to “Get me out of here” as the G-20 wound down.  No one believes he matters anymore.  By tying himself to the Saudis and the Israelis the way he has he, the master negotiator, has left himself no room to negotiate.

And that is leading to everyone defying him versus cutting deals to carve up the world, end the empire and come home.

Trump is not leading here.  He is being led.  And change requires leaders.  He has been led down the path so many presidents have, more militarism, more empire.  Because when you’re the Emperor everyone is your enemy.  This is the paranoia of a late-stage imperial mindset.

It certainly is the mindset of Trump’s closest advisors – Mattis, Bolton and Pompeo.

So Trump’s “America First’ instincts, no matter how genuine, have been twisted into something worse than evil, they are now ineffectual keepers of the status quo fueling ruinous neoconservative dreams of central Asian dominance.

 

 

And he has no one to blame but himself.

*  *  *

To support more work like this and get access to exclusive commentary, stock picks

*  *  *

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end
this should give you a good idea as to the collapse in the housing sector in the USA:  Toll brothers shock the market with a monstrous 13% plunge in orders to construct
(courtesy zerohedge)

Toll Brothers Shocks With 13% Plunge In Orders As California Falls A Staggering

39%

Toll Brothers announced its fourth quarter results on Tuesday, unleashing a fresh flood of concerns about the state of the housing market after it disclosed its first drop in orders since 2014. Orders were down 13% from the year prior, missing the analyst estimate of a 5% increase in dramatic fashion.

The company focuses much of its business on the California high-end home segment, which – as a result of the housing bubble in most west coast cities and rising rates, is facing an “affordability crisis” coupled with a sharp drop in overseas demand. According to the company, orders for the state were down an astounding 39%.

The company blamed rising rates for the drop off in buyer demand, as well as sinking stock prices. What is odd is that stock prices haven’t really “sunk” – unless the company was referring to its own stock…

… with the CEO blaming “the effect on buyer sentiment of well-publicized reports of a housing slowdown” for the plunge in orders. You see, it’s not the housing market that is slowing: it is perceptions about the market slowing, that is hitting the company.

That said, “perceptions” are correct: as we noted last week, new home sales crashed in October, suffering the biggest plunge since 2011.

Even so, the atrocious quarter didn’t deter all analysts, who promptly defended the stock. Drew Reading, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst stated that “there are many positive factors underpinning the economy that we believe are supportive of the housing sector longer-term, and our affluent markets particularly.”

Tolls dismal results follows signs that we have been discussing for much of the past year, which have confirmed that the luxury housing market is cooling off across the country.

Recently, we profiled a mansion in Chicago that was taken off the market after being listed for $50 million and only being assessed for $19.4 million. United Automobile Insurance Chairman and CEO Richard Parrillo constructed the 25,000 sq ft Lincoln Park mansion a decade ago, after buying the property in 2005 for $12.5 million from the Infant Welfare Society.

After two years on the market, Parrillo and his wife held firm at $50 million, a record for the region, their original listing agent told the Chicago Tribune. The agent said the couple plowed more than $65 million into the estate, including land cost.

Cook County Assessor’s Office reports shows the mansion’s $50 million asking price was hugely overinflated versus its most recent estimated market value, which stood some 60% lower, at $19.4 million. The report notes the 2018 property value is significantly higher from the assessor’s $14 million estimated market value for the mansion in 2017, due to a quick burst in high-end home sales in the last several years that had since cooled.

end

Now Gundlach, the bond King shows that the 2 and 5 yield curve inversion shows that the market does not belief that Powell will have one rate increase in 2019.

(courtesy Gundlach/zerohedge)

Gundlach: Yield Curve Inversion Shows “Total Market Disbelief” In The Fed’s

Hiking Plans

Back in late 2016, Jeff Gundlach predicted that the yield on the 10Y Treasury would hit 6% in four or five years (so by 2021) at the latest. Not any more.

DoubleLine’s CEO became the latest bond guru to chime in today on the collapsing yield curve, and specifically the inversion observed between the two- to five-year maturities…

… which to Gundlach suggest “total bond market disbelief in the Federal Reserve’s prior plans to raise rates through 2019.” As discussed repeatedly over the past 24 hours, the 2s5s is now the most inverted it has been since the financial crisis…

… while the closely-watched 2s10s was less than 10bps away from inversion at one point on Tuesday.

Gundlach is right: according to the market not only is the Fed barely likely to hike just once in 2019 (or not even, technically, with just 22bps of hikes priced in) but it is now pricing in a rate cut in 2020 (if partial so far, at -6.5%).

Gundlach also told Reuters that “if the bond market trusts the Fed’s latest words about ‘data dependency,’ then the totally flat Treasury Note curve is predicting softer future growth (and) will stay the Fed’s hand.”

“If that is indeed to be the case, the recent strong equity recovery is at risk from fundamental economic deterioration, a message that is sounding from the junk bond market, whose rebound has been far less impressive.”

As a result, Gundlach believes Powell will need to be especially careful what he says when the FOMC meets later this month to deliver on their promised rate hike, especially after Powell’s Oct.3 “rookie mistake” that sent yields surging and stocks tumbling.

“There can’t be another screwup like last time, when they dropped ‘accommodative’ but simultaneously characterized the Fed Funds rate as ‘a long way’ from neutral”, Gundlach said.

Of course, should Powell double down on his recent dovish tone, it would be seen as merely doing Trump’s bidding with the president repeatedly threatening to “remove” the Fed chair if rate hikes continue, in the process compromising the flawed perception that the Fed is independent, and leading to even more market volatility and confusion.

In short: Powell’s best and only option may be simply to resign and let someone else deal with the mess that Bernanke and Yellen left.

end
Amazon shareholders and Jeff Bezos are not going to like this as Trump targets them and other E Commerce sites as he will now undergo Postal reforms
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Admin Targets Amazon And Other E-Commerce Sites With Postal

Reforms

President Trump has followed through on a July promise to reform the US Postal Service (USPS), which he referred to as Amazon’s “Delivery Boy.”

On Tuesday, the Trump administration released a report that recommends a series of measures that the Trump’s USPS task force says are needed to bring in more revenue for the profit-challenged Postal Service, which reported $3.9 billion in losses during fiscal year 2018, according to The Hill.

“Although the USPS does have pricing flexibility within its package delivery segment, packages have not been priced with profitability in mind,” the report’s executive summary states. “The USPS should have the authority to charge market-based prices for both mail and package items that are not deemed ‘essential services.’”

The report recommends that the USPS divide its mail and package shipments into essential and commercial service categories. Many e-commerce shipments would fall into the latter category, which would not be protected by existing price caps and thus be subject to rate increases.

Senior administration officials say the Postal Service would be able to change package rates without an act of Congress. But such a move would likely require re-working negotiated service agreements with Amazon and other companies. –The Hill

While the move is clearly aimed at Amazon – which Trump warned in July over unfair business practices, administration officials have pushed back at the idea that the measures were specifically aimed at the company. “None of our findings or recommendations relate to any one customer or competitor of the Postal Service,” said one senior administration official in an anonymous statement to The Hill.

The official added that “all companies” dealing in e-commerce, “including Amazon,” would “be impacted by those suggested reforms.” –The Hill

Except, Trump has had Amazon in his crosshairs for years…

“The Amazon Washington Post has gone crazy against me ever since they lost the Internet Tax Case in the U.S. Supreme Court two months ago. Next up is the U.S. Post Office which they use, at a fraction of real cost, as their “delivery boy” for a BIG percentage of their packages….” Trump tweeted in July.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The Amazon Washington Post has gone crazy against me ever since they lost the Internet Tax Case in the U.S. Supreme Court two months ago. Next up is the U.S. Post Office which they use, at a fraction of real cost, as their “delivery boy” for a BIG percentage of their packages….

The changes are part of an initiative Trump began in April when he assembled the USPS task force. The report also covers other areas where it thinks the USPS could improve its finances.

It called on the Postal Service to restructure pre-payments of employee retirement and health benefits, which business groups say is the main driver of its fiscal woes. But it stopped short of endorsing bipartisan legislation that would end the pre-payments altogether, saying that doing so would place too much of a burden on taxpayers.

The administration is also recommending the USPS make changes to its internal management, allowing governors to set fiscal targets and allowing the Postal Regulatory Commission to have more power if the goals are not met. –The Hill

We’re sure Amazon won’t take this change out on their already-overworked warehouse employees…

SWAMP STORIES

Sorry to say but our Creepy Porn Lawyer has ruled out running for President in 2020

(courtesy zerohedge)

Michael Avenatti Rules Out Running For President In 2020

Since sending out his first trial balloon announcing his intention to seek the 2020 Democratic nomination for president back in October, a lot has changed in the life of “creepy porn lawyer” Michael Avenatti.

And most of that change has been bad.

First, he was accused by his 24-year-old actress girlfriend of domestic abuse and was arrested by the LAPD.  Then his firm was evicted from its office. And his star client, Stormy Daniels, distanced herself from him during an interview, where she also said he launched a ‘legal defense fund’ in her name without her permission.

Avenatti

And though the (formerly) wealthy California lawyer has never demonstrated a pragmatic view of reality, it seems he is preemptively giving up on his dream of challenging President Trump for the presidency in 2020. In a statement released Tuesday, Avenatti said that “after consulting with my family” he no longer intends to seek the 2020 nomination.

Michael Avenatti

@MichaelAvenatti

Please see my statement below regarding 2020.

Ironically, the lawyer – who has never demonstrated a firm grip on reality – concluded his statement by urging the Democratic Party to find a candidate who would actually have a chance of winning against Trump (Avenatti courted controversy earlier this year when he demanded that the Dems nominate a white man to battle Trump in 2020).

“I remain concerned that the Democratic Party will move toward nominating an individual who might make an excellent president, but would have no chance of actually beating Donald Trump.”

While almost nobody in the world of mainstream politics took Avenatti seriously, he had still managed to recruit a few former Clinton advisors to be “informal” advisors should he decide to launch his campaign – something he had been expected to announce as soon as this month.

Sadly, the American people will now be deprived of all the juicy oppo research findings that Avenatti’s rivals would likely unearth.

end
SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
Goldman Pours Cold Water On Trade War Truce: “The Odds of a Comprehensive Deal in 3 Months Are 20%” – There appears to have been no concrete progress on the other important issues of market access, IPR protection, cyber-attacks, and forced technology transfer (the latter two US concerns have always been denied by Chinese policymakers) which are left for working level officials to work out in the next 90 days.  So, as Goldman’s political analyst Alec Phillips summarizes, “the actual amount of concrete progress made at this meeting appears to have been quite limited, as expected.”…
 
Trump-Xi Give Markets the Most They Could Have Expected
This is a truce and not a breakthrough, and provides both sides with 90 days to intensify talks on the most difficult of matters. Such matters are formidable:
  • For Washington, forced tech transfer, intellectual property rights and non-tariff barriers are key
  • China to cede ground on the above, but its high-tech leadership ambitions are non-negotiable
  • The trade war is likely to morph into a tech war in 2019
The tech war matters a lot. It’s widely understood that the U.S.-China relationship is crucial for the world and will take years to resolve…
 
@BillGertz: Xi Jinping promise at G-20 to open markets, like promises to halt cyber spying and not militarize S China Sea, predictably will prove false. Like Lucy holding football for Charlie Brown
 
Fed’s Clarida says `Powell put’ not a useful policy concept
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said the U.S. central bank will defend both sides of its inflation target and cautioned investors against thinking the Fed would act to halt a sharp market decline…    https://www.bondbuyer.com/articles/feds-clarida-says-powell-put-not-a-useful-policy-concept
Mueller preparing endgame for Russia probe [Team Mueller talks/leaks to Isikoff?]
A Flynn sentencing memo is due Tuesday, and memos about Manafort and Cohen are slated for Friday. All three documents are expected to yield significant new details on what cooperation the three of them provided to the Russia investigation…
@paulsperry_: Mueller withheld exculpatory evidence from court in Cohen case
Mueller mentions that Cohen tried to email Russian President Vladimir Putin’s office on Jan. 14, 2016, and again on Jan. 16, 2016. But Mueller, who personally signed the document, omitted the fact that Cohen did not have any direct points of contact at the Kremlin, and had resorted to sending the emails to a general press mailbox. Sources who have seen these additional emails point out that this omitted information undercuts the idea of a “back channel” and thus the special counsel’s collusion case…         
    “Though Cohen may have lied to Congress about the dates,” one Hill investigator said, “it’s clear from personal messages he sent in 2015 and 2016 that the Trump Organization did not have formal lines of communication set up with Putin’s office or the Kremlin during the campaign. There was no secret ‘back channel.’”  “So as far as collusion goes,” the source added, “the project is actually more exculpatory than incriminating for Trump and his campaign.”…
Dershowitz WSJ op-ed: Don’t Let Mueller’s Report Go Unanswered – Because it is a prosecutor’s product, it will inevitably be one-sided. Trump ought to be allowed to respond.
@Barnes_Law: A reminder to all the pretend criminal defense lawyers out there: there is NO crime in complimenting witnesses or criticizing witnessesIt is called due process of law & the right of confrontation, both consecrated rights in the Constitution. @realDonaldTrump did nothing wrong.
Senator Grassley to DoJ IG Horowitz over FBI raid on Clinton Foundation & UR1 whistleblower:
… The FBI raided the home of a “whistleblower,” Mr. Dennis Nathan Cain, who provided documents regarding the Clinton Foundation and Uranium One transaction to your office…
   I request that you produce all documents to the Committee and provide an update with respect to the steps you have taken, or plan to take, regarding the FBI’s treatment of Mr. Cain’s disclosures no later than December 12, 2018.
Grassley Letter to FBI Director Wray re: FBI raid on whistleblower:
3. On what basis did the FBI decide to carry out the aforementioned raid on November 19, 2018? Please explain and provide a copy of the warrant and all supporting affidavits…
@dnvolz: @WSJ has seen the classified CIA assessment on Khashoggi. Signals intelligence shows that the Saudi crown prince sent at least 11 messages to his closest advisor who oversaw the team that killed Khashoggi in the hours leading up to the operation.
@TomFitton: More illegal leaks [above WSJ story] of classified info by Deep State. Placing our nation and lives at risk to get @RealDonaldTrump.
What Is “Ballot Harvesting,’ and How Did California Dems Use It to Nuke the GOP?
Passed as a barely noticed change in the state’s vote by mail procedures in 2016 and signed by then-Governor Jerry Brown, California’s AB 1921 allows voters to give any third party — not just a relative or someone living in the same household, as was previously the law — to collect and turn in anyone else’s completed ballot… Called “ballot harvesting,” critics say the practice is ripe for fraud…
    The San Francisco Chronicle reported that 250,000 such ballots were used in Orange County alone, resulting in a Democratic sweep there… 
     “AB 1921 would allow anybody to walk into an elections office and hand over truckloads of vote by mail envelopes with ballots inside, no questions asked, no verified records kept. It amounts to an open invitation to large-scale vote buying, voter coercion, “granny farming”, and automated forgery…”
Chicago’s New PlayStation Tax Shows How Greedy Politicians Can Be [Socialism at work]
A 9 percent “amusement tax” for PlayStation subscriptions such as PlayStation Now, PlayStation Plus, PlayStation Music, and others… Chicago is one of the most heavily taxed cities in the country…
  To make matters worse, Chicago is also a city with a horrible reputation for government corruption… Chicago is proof that there is almost nothing that government entities won’t try to tax…
America Is Addicted to Outrage. Is There a Cure? – WSJ
A healthy society reserves its outrage for special occasions…Is outrage now an American entitlement, and a permanent state of mind?… it has gotten to be a racket. The coin of anger is debased.  Indignation has become a meme—not an authentic political or moral reaction to facts in a serious world, but rather a reflex, a kind of irresponsible playacting, or worse, a mania. When everyone is outraged, then real grievances lose their meaning, and the endless indulgence of outrage becomes, objectively, immoral.  https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-is-addicted-to-outrage-is-there-a-cure-1543620811

-END-

I will leave you tonight with this offering courtesy of David Stockman has he asks Trump to tackle the deep state

(courtesy David Stockman)

Stockman To Trump – Tear Down That Deep State Wall…Of Secrecy

Authored by David Stockman via TargetLiberty.com,

When the Donald promised to “drain the swamp” during the 2016 election campaign, it did sound vaguely like an attack on Big Government, and at least a directional desire to shrink the state and let free market capitalism breathe.

After 22 months in office, however, the truth is patently obvious: The only Swamp that Donald Trump wants to drain is one filled with his political enemies and policy adversaries at any given moment in time. Even then, you have to consult his tweetstorm ledger to know exactly who the swamp creatures de jure actually are.

Still, the Donald’s daily Twitter assaults on the Deep State are a wondrous thing. They surely do undermine public confidence in rogue institutions like the FBI, CIA and NSA, which profoundly threaten America’s constitutional liberties and fiscal solvency.

Likewise, his frequently unhinged tweets also lather their congressional sponsors and beltway poo-bahs with well-deserved mud and opprobrium. And the Donald’s increasingly acrimonious public feuding with Deep State criminals like James Comey and John Brennan is just what the doctor ordered.

The Deep State thrives and milks the public treasury so successfully in large part because the Imperial City’s corps of permanent policy apparatchiks like Comey and Brennan (and thousands more) pretend to be performing god’s work. So doing, they preen sanctimoniously to the adoration of their sycophants in the mainstream media, claiming to be above any governance or sanction from the unwashed electorate.

Attacking this rotten perversion of democracy, therefore, is the Donald’s real calling. While he lacks both the temperament and ideas to solve the nation’s metastasizing economic and social challenges and has no hope whatsoever to make MAGA, he is more than suited for his “Great Disrupter” mission.

That is, the existing order needs to be discredited and brought down first, and on that score his primitive economic populism will more than do its part. As we have previously explained, Trump’s deadly combination of Fiscal Debauchery, Protectionism and Easy Money will eventually blow the nation’s debt and bubble-ridden economy sky-high.

Likewise, his crude rendition of America First is not a blueprint for rebooting America’s national security policy, but it is an existential threat to Empire First and the Deep State’s usurpation of constitutional government. And even as the Donald lurches to and fro on Russia, Korea, the Middle East, NATO, globalism and so-called allies, the main job is getting done. That is, the War Party’s self-appointed role as global policeman and the Indispensable Nation is getting thoroughly discredited.

In terms of the Donald’s great mission of wrecking the Deep State, we would only take issue with him to this extent: Why in the world does he not understand that he is actually President and has a far more powerful weapon at his disposal than his Twitter account—-56 million followers to the contrary notwithstanding?

To wit, he has the unquestioned constitutional power to both appoint and fire his own cabinet, sub-cabinet and upwards of 3,000 Schedule C policy jobs; and also to declassify anything lurking behind the Deep State’s massive wall of unjustified secrecy if he deems it in the public interest.

Accordingly, Trump could have and should have fired Jeff Sessions long before he did and Rod Rosenstein even before that. After all, it is the spinelessness of the former and the Deep State treachery of the latter, that launched the hideous Mueller witch-hunt in the first place and that keeps it going from one absurdity to the next ridiculous over- reach.

Can there be anything more pitiful after 17 months of nothingburgers on the phony Russian collusion file than Mueller’s list of indictments. These include:

  • 13 Russian college kids for essentially practicing English as a third language at a St Petersburg troll farm for $4 per hour;
  • 12 Russian intelligence operatives who might as well have been picked from the GRU phonebook;
  • Baby George Papadopoulos for mis-recalling an irrelevant date by two weeks;
  • Paul Manafort for standard Washington lobbyist crimes committed long before he met Trump;
  • Michael Cohen for shirking taxes and running Trump’s bimbo silencing operation;
  • Michael Flynn for doing his job talking to the Russian Ambassador and confusing the confusable Mike Pence on what he said and didn’t say about Obama’s idiotic 11th hour Russian sanctions;
  • Rick Gates for helping Manafort shakedown the Ukrainian government and other oily Washington supplicants.;
  • Sam Patten, another Manafort operative who forget to register correctly as a foreign agent;
  • Richard Pinedo, a grifter who never met Trump and got caught selling forged bank accounts on-line to Russians for a couple bucks each;
  • Alex van der Zwaan, a Dutch lawyers who wrote a report for Manafort in 2012 and misreported to the FBI what he told Gates about it. That’s all she wrote and it’s about as pathetic as it gets. If nothing else, the fact that Mueller hasn’t been guffawed out of town on account of this tommyrot is a measure of the degree to which the Imperial City has fallen prey to the Trump Derangement Syndrome.

The Brennan Report – The Foundational Document of the RussiaGate Witch-Hunt

Still, we have to wonder why Trump doesn’t get the joke. Long ago he could have declassified everything related to the foundational RussiaGate document. That is, the January 6, 2017 report entitled, “Assessing Russian Activities And Intentions in Recent US Elections”.

The report was nothing of the kind, of course, and is now well-understood to have been written by outgoing CIA director John Brennan and a hand-picked posse of politicized analysts from the CIA, FBI and NSA. It was essentially a political screed thinly disguised as the product of the professional intelligence community and was designed to discredit and sabotage the Trump presidency.

As presented to the President-elect and released to the public in declassified form, it is all gussied-up with caveats, implying that the real dirt is in the “highly classified” version of the report. Except that’s just the typical Deep State hide-the-ball trick: When it can’t prove its “assessments” and “judgments”, it claims the evidence is top secret.

In the current case, the Imperial City is so red hot with Trump antipathy that any undisclosed smoking guns in the highly classified version would have leaked long ago. So the truth is, there is nothing more to the allegedly sinister Russian “influencing campaign” than the superficial blarney in the public version of the document.

And the latter boils down to ten pages of sweeping insinuations and airballs—plus a loony 9-page appendix which proves the totally public RT America cable TV network doesn’t think much of the Washington’s global meddling!

Indeed, we second the motion. In fact, when we first read this ballyhooed report our thought was that someone at the Onion had pilfered the CIA logo and published a side- splitting satire.

The 9-pager on RT America, which is presented as evidence of “Kremlin messaging”, is so sophomoric and hackneyed that it could have been written by a summer intern at the CIA. It consists entirely of a sloppy catalogue of leftist and libertarian based dissent from mainstream policy that has been aired on RT America on such subversive topics as Occupy Wall Street, anti-fracking, police brutality, foreign interventionism and civil liberties.

Actually, your author has appeared dozens of times on RT America and advocated nearly every position cited by the CIA as evidence of nefarious Russian propaganda. And we thought it up all by ourselves!

So, yes, we do think US intervention in Syria was wrong; that Georgia was the aggressor when it invaded South Ossetia; that the American people have been disenfranchised and need to “take this government back”; that Washington runs a “surveillance state” where civil liberties are being ridden roughshod upon; that Wall Street is riven with “greed” and the “US national debt” is out of control; that the two-party system is a “sham “and that it doesn’t represent the views of “one-third of the population” (at least!); and that most especially after killing millions in unnecessary wars Washington has “no moral right to teach the rest of the world”.

So there you have it: Policy views on various topics that are embraced in some instances by both your libertarian editor and the left-wing Nation magazine; and which are held to be examples of Russian messaging—even alarming evidence of nefarious meddling in our electoral process.

Moreover, it turns out that RT America is not even in the top 95 cable channels according to published rankings, and may have an audience of less than 30,000 viewers per day, according to even the rabidly anti-Putin Daily Beast. Still, by the lights of John Brennan and his coterie of CIA hacks, that’s apparently 30,000 too many citizens being exposed to anti-establishment opinion.

In that regard, we especially got a yuck from the following example of RT’s nefarious attempt to influence American voters. Not only have we uttered these very same thoughts on RT America, but we also conveyed them on the Fox Business network and didn’t even get censored!

Some of RT’s hosts have compared the United States to Imperial Rome and have predicted that government corruption and ‘corporate greed’ will lead to US financial collapse.”

Needless to say, if this is an example of the work being done by the US intelligence community with its $75 billion annual budget, they are giving the idea of pouring money down a rathole an altogether new definition.

In fact, does the juvenille fool who penned this drivel think Washington is purer than Caesar’s wife? The report whines and slobbers about RT America’s indirect support from the Russian government and an alleged $190 million subsidy from the Russian state.

Yet Washington spends upwards of $800 million per year on the U.S. Agency for Global Media, which is the parent organization of its own international propaganda arms: Voice of America, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Radio y Television Marti, Radio Free Asia and the Middle East Broadcast Networks.

And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. It doesn’t count, for example, the $170 million per year spent by the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) to subvert governments which Washington doesn’t like. Indeed, the two sub-agencies of NED (one for the Dems and one for the GOP) were chaired by two of Washington’s most blood-thirsty regime changers—Madeleine Albright and the late Senator John McWar of Arizona.

Unlike RT America, of course, these two cats caused the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians who happened to be domiciled in places they deemed in need of that very special kind of “influencing” that is delivered from the business end of a Tomahawk cruise missile.

Beyond that, there is billions more of “agit prop” and NGO funding that is channeled through the CIA, DOD, the State Department, the Agency for International Development and many more—-all designed to “influence opinion” in dozens of foreign countries where the people need to be advised of the correct line from Washington.

Yet the report’s mendacious attack on the utterly irrelevant RT America is the stronger part of the document!

The main body of the document consists of 10 pages of bloviation which amount to this: The very distinct probability that Vlad Putin strongly dislikes Hillary Clinton, who did liken him to Adolph Hitler; and preferred Donald Trump, who was a wet-behind- the-ears real estate gambler from New York City, thereby still in possession of sufficient common sense to see that Russia is no threat to America and that rapprochement with Putin was in order.

Actually, it gets a lot richer. The US government did spend tens of millions covertly supporting the so-called “color revolutions” on Russia’s doorstep, including the Rose Revolution in Georgia, the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, the Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan, the Jeans Revolution in Belarus, the Grape Revolution in Moldova and, most especially, the so-called pro-democracy protests in Russia during 2011-2013 that were aimed at vilifying and discrediting Vladimir Putin.

Yet Imperial Washington wears absolute blinders with respect to this kind of bald-faced meddling in the internal politics of other sovereign nations. There is not an iota of connection between the safety and security of the American people domiciled between their ocean moats and whatever some two-bit dictator is doing in Belarus or the intrigues of the communist party in Moldova.

Soft Power Aggression—How The Imperial City Makes a Living

The explanation for this kind of soft-power aggression, therefore, is not national security: It’s what Imperial Washington does for a living. That is, the billions of taxpayer money being pumped through the foreign policy agencies, NGOs, think tanks, advocacy organizations and sleazy lobbying operations like those of the Podesta brothers and Paul Manafort finance there own raison d’etre .

I WILL YOU ON WEDNESDAY
H
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