DEC 12/USA MARKETS AFTER BEING UP OVER 400 POINTS RETREAT AGAIN AS THE DOW ENDS AT ONLY UP 159 POINTS//GOLD UP $3.05 TO $1245.00 BUT THE BIG WINNER WAS SILVER : UP 22 CENTS/GLD ADDS ANOTHER 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD INTO ITS INVENTORY/GOLDMAN SACHS DEALER AND A CUSTOMER OF JPMORGAN CONTINUE TO RECEIVE (STOP) MOST OF THE DEC GOLD CONTRACTS/QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS TO BOTH THE GOLD COMEX AND THE SILVER COMEX/BAIL SET FOR HUAWEI CFO AT 10 MILLION DOLLARS BUT SHE MUST STAY IN CANADA WAITING FOR EXTRADITION/MICHAEL COHEN SENTENCED TO 3 YRS IN PRISON/NATIONAL ENQUIRER NOW ADMITS CATCH AND KILL SCHEME WITH TRUMP/COHEN AND MCDOUGAL/FRANCE IN A MESS AS RIOTS CONTINUE PLUS A SHOOTER ON THE LOOSE/ITALY’S TOP GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS DENIES STORY THAT THEY WILL SETTLE WITH A SUB 2% DEFICIT TO GDP/

 

 

 

GOLD: $1245.00 UP $3.05 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.75 UP 22 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1245.60

 

silver: $14.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

DEC

Again, we have Goldman Sachs dealer and JPMorgan customer account stopping (receiving the gold) 304/395 contracts.

 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2018 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,241.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/11/2018 DELIVERY DATE: 12/13/2018
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 224
132 H SG AMERICAS 1
323 C HSBC 25
323 H HSBC 322
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 6
661 C JP MORGAN 80
690 C ABN AMRO 20
737 C ADVANTAGE 44 55
800 C RCG 4 2
905 C ADM 4 3
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 395 395
MONTH TO DATE: 7,137

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 395 NOTICE(S) FOR 39500 OZ (1.228 tonnes)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR DECEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

173 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  865,000  OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 3594 for 17,970,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $3334: UP 55

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3466  UP 84 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 2393 CONTRACTS FROM 179,473 DOWN TO 174,071 WITH YESTERDAY’S  1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 20 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

3258 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND 0 FOR MARCH AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 3258 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3258 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3258 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 16.29 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND

NOW 20.255 INITIALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC: 13,948 CONTRACTS (FOR 8 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 13,948 CONTRACTS) OR 69.74 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1743 CONTRACTS OR 8.71 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC:  69,74 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 9.96% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,746.80    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR NOVEMBER /2018:                                 247.18         MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2393 DESPITE THE 1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY.. AS THE BOYS CONTINUE WITH THEIR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OVER TO  ETFS AT THE START OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3258 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED: 865 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 3258 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 2393 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 1 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.53 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .898 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 128% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 173 NOTICE(S) FOR 865,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./AND NOW DEC. AT 20.255 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1483 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 402,250 WITH THE FALL IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A FALL IN PRICE OF $4.85//.YESTERDAY’S TRADING) 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG  SIZED 9745 CONTRACTS:

 

DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 9745 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 402,250. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8262 CONTRACTS:  1483 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 9745 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 8262 CONTRACTS OR 826200 OZ = 25,69 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $4.85

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 8044 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 64,999 CONTRACTS OR 6,499,900 OZ OR 202,17 TONNES (8 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8124 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 202.17 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 202.17/2550 x 100% TONNES =  7.92% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,966.55  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR NOV 2018:                        552.88 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 1483 WITH THE LOSS  IN PRICING ($4.85) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 9745 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 9745 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN GOOD GAIN OF 9507 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

9745 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 1483 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 25,69 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE FALL OF $4.85 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX

 

 

we had: 395 notice(s) filed upon for 39,500 oz of gold at the comex.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $3.05 TODAY

 

A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD

 

SOMETHING BIG IS HAPPENING UNDER THE SHEETS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   763.56 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 763.56 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTs  TODAY:

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 2393 CONTRACTS from 179,473 DOWN TO 174,071  AND MOVING FURTHER FROM  THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

3258 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1446 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2393 CONTRACTS TO THE 3258 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A FAIR GAIN  OF 865 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4.32 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. AND NOW 20.255 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 1 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 3258 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.06 POINTS OR 0.21% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 415.04 POINTS OR 1.61% //The Nikkei closed UP 454.73 OR 2.15%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.34%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8878 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 52.76 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.27 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8878AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8845: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)Huawei CFO Meng is granted bail but she must stay in Canada and submit to a 24 /7 surveillance. China is not happy with this:

( zerohedge)

ii)Trump will not be happy with this:  the hack of 500 million Marriott guests are now traced to Chinese intelligence

( zerohedge)

iii)This would be a major concession if it comes true:  China is preparing to replace its “Made in China 2025” with opening up its borders

( zerohedge)

iv)This was largely expected: China buys 500,000 tonnes of soybeans from the USA.
( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

 

Deutsche bank handicaps the odds that the UK government will collapse.

( zerohedge)

i b)Although intra party she passes on a confidence vote by 200 to 117, the fact that over 100 of her party voted against her is very problematic for the Brexit vote

( zerohedge)
ii)FRANCE
France is in a mess now.  The shooter is still at large having been convicted 27 times before.  He yelled “allahu Akbar” while undergoing his shooting rampage.  France is having continual riots coupled with terrorist attacks..good for its GDP
( zerohedge)
iii) Italy

What a bunch of crap: the story below is false…the Italian PM does not confirm the 2% deficit. With France going for a 3.5% deficit there is no way that Italy should give in.

( zerohedge)

GERMANY

this will not help as both of these banking entities are in trouble

(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

i)IRAN/USA/GLOBE

Iran confirms that it tested a new ballistic missile capable of hitting most of Europe and all of the Middle East.

( zerohedge)

ii)Turkey

Turkey is not finished yet in Syria as it wants to launch a new military operation in the next few days supposedly to knock off separatists “terrorists” i.e. the YPG.

(courtesy zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

CANADA

The following is quite amazing as it indicates the extent of the global slowdown.  Canadian personal bankruptcies surged dramatically in October.  When you compare year over year:  9.2% rise as insolvencies climbed to 11,641.  However on a sequential month over month: in inexplicable 16%…something broke in  Canada..Remember Canada has the highest household debt to GDP in the developed world.

( zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

i)Venezuela

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Reuters reports that foreign investors are turning their backs on USA treasuries as the curve is threatening to invert
( Reuters/GATA)

ii)A joke:  Powell is trying to be transparent as he tries to combat Trump attacks.

( Bloomberg/GATA)

iii)To all our gold coin collectors:  The Yukon mint has produced a gold coin depicting the work of the Kaska nation artist Miranda Lane. Only 180 of the one oz and 140 of the half oz have been minted

(courtesy Yukon Mint/GATA)

iv)Ed Steer’s gold and silver digest is posted in the clear at goldseek

( Steer/GATA/Goldseek

v)Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
( zerohedge/Chris Powell)
vi)My goodness, Russia is mining gold like crazy:  for 9 months 243 tonnes of gold mined.  All of this goes to official reserves.  They are on tap to mine 324 tonnes of gold this year.
( RT)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

Afternoon trading:  again stocks and oil giving up their gains

 

ii)Market data/

Inflation is the weakest in a year and this follows the PPI data from yesterday.  Consumer price growth slowed notably form 2.5% down to 2.2%,..however goods prices are rising the fastest in 5 years

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

i)Michael Snyder comments that we are approaching the 22 trillion dollar mark in national debt as another financial crisis will be upon us.

(Michael Snyder)

A good measure to indicate that the USA economy and especially the real estate sector is coming to a screeching halt
( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)We now have 3 Clinton foundation whistleblowers ready to testify against the Clintons in a suspected tax fraud and a pay for play scheme

( zerohedge)

b)this was a total setup from the beginning.  The FBI totally sets up Flynn by telling him to ditch his lawyer.  Also memos exist from the FBI  stating that they will not warn Flynn that lying is a felony

(courtesy zerohedge)

c)National Enquirer publisher now admits to Trump’s hush money, “catch and kill” scheme hrs after Cohen was sentenced to 3 years
(zerohedge)
E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1483 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level 402,250 WITH THE LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($4.85 IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 9745 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR DECEMBER:  9745 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  9745 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  8262 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 9745 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1485 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 8262 contracts OR 826,200 OZ OR 25,69 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of December and we now have a total of 933 contracts stand in December so we had a loss of 634 contracts.  We had 662 notices served yesterday, so we gained 28 contracts or 2800 oz will  stand as these guys refused to  morph into London based forwards and as well negating to accept a fiat bonus.  QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS TO THE GOLD COMEX 

 

The next delivery month after December is January which saw it RISE TO 3037 FOR A LOSS OF 161 CONTRACTS.  February LOST A CONSIDERABLE 2872 contracts to stand at 300,795 contracts

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1/2017: 37.035 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

EVENTUALLY BY DEC 31.2017:  28.592 TONNES STOOD AND THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

AS A REMINDER WE HAVE ONLY 4.000 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD READY TO SERVE UPON OUR DEC LONGS.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 395 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 39500 OZ. (1.228 tonnes)

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY 2393 CONTRACTS FROM 179,473 DOWN TO 174,071 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED WITH A 1 CENT RISE IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 3258 EFP CONTRACTS:

 

FOR DECEMBER: 3258 CONTRACTS, FOR MARCH 0 CONTRACTS, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 3258.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 865 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  2393 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 3258 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   865 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 1 CENT GAIN IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of DECEMBER and here in this front month of December we now have 630 contracts standing for a gain of 157 contracts.  We had 2 contracts stand for delivery yesterday so we gained 159 contract or an additional 795,000 oz will not stand for delivery as these guys morphed into London based forwards as well as  accepting a fiat bonus.

 

After  December we have the non active  January contract month and here we saw a loss of 29 contracts up to 1900 contracts.  February saw its another 3 contract gain to stand at 82. March, the next big delivery month after December saw a loss of 2106 contracts down to 143,325

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1.2017 WE HAD A RATHER LARGE: 19.47 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY

BY THE END OF DECEMBER:  33.295 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NAME OF THE GAME IN SILVER.

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 173 notice(s) filed for 865,000 OZ for the DEC, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 146,626 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  199,213  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

DEC 12-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 32,203.220 oz

HSBC

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

 

 

nil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
395 notice(s)
 39500 OZ
1.228 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
538 contracts
(53800 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
7137 notices
713700 OZ
22.199 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 1 dealer entries:

 

i) Into HSBC:  32,203.220 oz

total dealer deposits: 32,203.220  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

 

total gold customer deposits;  nil oz

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  nil oz

 

we had 0  adjustment..

we still have not had any adjustments out of the dealer to the customer account to signify a settlement

FOR THE DEC 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 395 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 80 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 224 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7137) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (933 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (395 x 100 oz per contract) equals 767,800 OZ OR 23.87 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DECEMBER

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (7137 x 100 oz)  + {933)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (395 x 100 oz )which equals 767,800 oz standing OR 23.87 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DECEMBER.

WE GAINED 28 CONTRACTS OR 2800 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY  MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING TO  ACCEPT A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 22.597 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 23.87 TONNES STANDING FOR DECEMBER

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  726,494.203 oz or   22.597 tonnes*
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,339,015.231 oz 259.37 tonnes
*however we have 22.199 tonnes of gold ALREADY SERVED UPON against dealer inventory of 22.597 tonnes and so far we have had no settlements  as of yet.  We generally get a settlement when we see an adjustment from the dealer side to the customer side..
we have a total of 23.87 tonnes of gold standing for metal against only 22.597 tonnes of dealer gold and nothing has been settled so far…

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 95 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

DEC INITIAL standings/SILVER

DEC 12, 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
636,874.173 oz
CNT
Brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
173
CONTRACT(S)
865,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
457 contracts
2,285,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3594 contracts

(17,970,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: 18,879.500 oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 150.55 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.03% of all official comex silver. (152.0 million/292 million)

 

ii) Into everybody else;  zero

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: nil  oz

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i) Out of CNT:  36,322.268 oz
ii) Out of Brinks: 600,551.905 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 636,874.173  oz

 

we had 0 adjustments

 

total dealer silver:  88.893 million

total dealer + customer silver:  295.996  million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2018. contract month is represented by 173 contract(s) FOR 865,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3594 x 5,000 oz = 17,970,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (630) and the number of notices served upon today (173 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2018 contract month: 3594(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC( 630) -number of notices served upon today (173)x 5000 oz equals 20,255,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained 159 contract or 795,000 additional oz will stand and these guys refused to accept a London based forward as well as negate receiving a fiat bonus. The EFP route is nothing but a cash settlement process and it is done in London to avoid detection. It is becoming quite obvious that the bankers are in urgent need of silver as we witness the constant queue jumping in silver these past 20 months.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 67,032 CONTRACTS  … 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 81,952 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 81,952 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 409 million OZ  56.53% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -3.93-% (DEC 12/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.71% to NAV (DEC 12 /2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.93%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.50/TRADING 12.01/DISCOUNT 3.93

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC 12/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/SOMETHING IS BURNING…/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.32 TONNES

DEC 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

DEC 7/WITH GOLD UP $8.35/A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.51 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

DEC 6/WITH GOLD UP $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.25: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.30: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 26/WITH GOLD DOWN 65 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

 

NOV 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.95: A BIG CHANGE: A GOOD SIZED DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 16/WITH GOLD UP $8.00: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.48 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 15/WITH GOLD UP $5.35/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $8.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.77 TONNES AT THE GLD/THAT SHOULD END THE WHACKING OF GOLD FOR NOW AND A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 84 TONNES: INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 12.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 763.56 tonnes

*IN LAST 514 TRADING DAYS: 171.60 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 414 TRADING DAYS: A NET 11.60 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY ESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 7/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.817 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ.

DEC 4/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ/

DEC 3/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.22 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV /INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ.

NOV 28/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 188,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ/

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.301 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.718 MILLION OZ/

NOV 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ

NOV 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ.

NOV 21/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 563,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 16/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS; A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 328,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/ A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.784 MILLION OZ

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ/

 

 

DEC 12/2018:

 

Inventory 318.735 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.62/ and libor 6 month duration 2.88

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .26

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.76%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.09

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.33

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Krugerrand Coin Worth $1,200 Donated To Charity Again

– Gold Krugerrand coin worth $1,200 put in charity kettle – this time in Alaska
– Mystery Salvation Army gold donors keep giving Gold Krugerrands
– Gold, like pounds, euros and dollars can be used for good or ill
– Give the gift of gold in this the Season of Kindness 


Gold Krugerrands (1 oz) being used for good

Salvation Army staff in Alaska got a big surprise while counting change from their red kettles last Friday.

An anonymous donor dropped a gold bullion coin, worth $1,250, into a Salvation Army kettle at a store in Alaska.

“This is so unusual, we were just thrilled,” said Janet Kincaid, who chairs the Mat-Su Salvation Army board and serves on the Anchorage Salvation Army Board.

Kincaid realized the coin was special — it’s a Gold Krugerrand from South Africa — as they were counting out lower-denomination change.

“And I looked at it and I thought, ‘Oh whoa! This is one of those!”

Gold coins show up in the Salvation Army’s kettles every year, usually anonymously and in other parts of the country.

This is the first Gold Krugerrand believed to have been dropped into one of the red buckets in Alaska.

Kincaid said she thought the earthquake might’ve had something to do with the donation, because the area where it was given was hit hard.

And while Kincaid said people have been especially generous this year, the coin is a random gift that tops all others.

“We find all sorts of things, like washers and screws. All other kind of coins. Sometimes we find an alcoholics coin that’s a symbol of their sobriety,” Kincaid said. “You know, men in particular, they just clean out their pockets and drop it in.”

The Gold Kruggerand was likely not the result of someone cleaning out their pockets, or an accident, she said. That’s because it was in a plastic sleeve and came with a note in memory of someone.

Kincaid said she doesn’t want to reveal the name, because it was given anonymously, and she doesn’t know if the person wants their loved one’s name made public.

Source: Alaskapublic.org

Editors note: The Salvation Army Gold Krugerrand story is a heart warming story that we feature every year. It shows how gold bullion is neither good nor bad in and of itself.

How could it be given it is simply a rare, finite precious metal in pure form?

Rather like euros, pounds, dollars and all forms of money and indeed like all finite, natural resources on this small planet of ours, gold can be used for good or for ill.

“The desire of gold is not for gold. It is for the means of freedom and benefit” as Ralph Waldo Emerson pointed out.

 

Secure Storage Ireland – Click here for information

 

News and Commentary

Dow closes lower after swinging more than 500 points in another volatile session (CNBC.com)

Stocks cheered by Trump trade talk; sterling plagued by politics (CNBC.com)

Japan, Hong Kong lead big stock rebound in Asia Wednesday (MarketWatch.com)

Trump threatens shutdown over border wall during heated meeting with Pelosi, Schumer (MarketWatch.com)

After May asks for help, Germany’s Merkel says no more Brexit negotiations (Reuters.com)

South African Gold Output Drops 13th Straight Month in October (Bloomberg.com)


Source: KingWorldNews

Foreign investors spurn U.S. Treasuries as curve threatens to invert (Reuters.com)

News from Euroland – Recession Imminent (MasterInvestor.co.uk)

This is What The “Trade” War With China Is Really All About (ZeroHedge.com)

GE Slumps To Ominous $6.66 March 2009 Lows (ZeroHedge.com)

The Powers-That-Be Were Everywhere Yesterday (GoldSeek.com)

Gold and Global Financial Crisis Redux (GoldSeek.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

11 Dec: USD 1,248.25, GBP 988.99 & EUR 1,096.59 per ounce
10 Dec: USD 1,246.80, GBP 980.61 & EUR 1,092.57 per ounce
07 Dec: USD 1,241.20, GBP 972.98 & EUR 1,091.51 per ounce
06 Dec: USD 1,236.45, GBP 971.48 & EUR 1,091.66 per ounce
05 Dec: USD 1,236.15, GBP 970.13 & EUR 1,090.16 per ounce
04 Dec: USD 1,239.25, GBP 966.74 & EUR 1,086.45 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

11 Dec: USD 14.64, GBP 11.62 & EUR 12.85 per ounce
10 Dec: USD 14.53, GBP 11.48 & EUR 12.73 per ounce
07 Dec: USD 14.49, GBP 11.34 & EUR 12.73 per ounce
06 Dec: USD 14.38, GBP 11.28 & EUR 12.68 per ounce
05 Dec: USD 14.48, GBP 11.34 & EUR 12.75 per ounce
04 Dec: USD 14.55, GBP 11.35 & EUR 12.77 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– EU Recession Imminent – Euro Disunion as Brexit, Italy and End of QE Loom
– Gold and Silver Gained 2% and 3% Last Week While Stocks Dropped Nearly 5%
– Irish Central Bank Refuses To Discuss Gold Reserves In Bank of England Vaults
– “Fake Markets” To Lead to Global Financial Crisis? – Goldnomics Podcast
– Gold Is “Coiled” and Looks Set To Surge Like Natural Gas — Bloomberg Intelligence
– “Collapse Of Civilisation Is On The Horizon” – Attenborough Warns World Leaders
– Deutsche Bank May Cause The Next Global Crisis
– Ireland’s Mr Gold Reveals Nuggets Of Wisdom For When The Next Crash Comes
– BREXIT May Lead to UK Property Crash and Depression
– General Motors And General Electric Highlight The Ponzi Scheme That Is The US Economy

Watch on Youtube here

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
 
END
 
ii) GATA stories
Reuters reports that foreign investors are turning their backs on USA treasuries as the curve is threatening to invert
(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

Foreign investors spurn U.S. Treasuries as curve threatens to invert

 Section: 

By Tomo Uetake and Saikat Chatterjee
Reuters
Tuesday, December 11, 2018

A worrying sign of inversion in the U.S. Treasury bond curve is dulling the appeal of the developed world’s highest-yielding bond market for foreign investors.

Overseas investors are reviewing their investments or shunning Treasuries as rates at the short end rise above those at the longer end and make it unprofitable for holders of these bonds to hedge their currency risks.

The difference between short- and long-term bond rates, or the yield curve, has contracted in recent weeks as rising U.S. interest rates meet growing concerns that the world’s biggest economy may be slowing down, weighing on longer-dated yields. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-bonds-foreigners/foreign-investor..

 

end

A joke:  Powell is trying to be transparent as he tries to combat Trump attacks.

(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

Fed chairman undertakes charm offensive — but will he come clean?

 Section: 

How about just answering Rep. Alex Mooney’s questions, starting with which markets is the Fed secretly trading in, and why?:

http://gata.org/node/18407

* * *

Fed Chairman Powell Is Staging a Charm Offensive to Combat Trump’s Attacks

By Craig Torres
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Jerome Powell is ramping up Federal Reserve communication to build public trust and help insulate it from political attack.

In recent weeks the Fed has announced a series of initiatives, including a monetary-policy review roadshow, a semi-annual assessment of financial stability, and its inaugural Supervision and Regulation Report. These follow Powell’s early promise of “plain-English” explanations and a doubling of his press conferences starting next year.

Those initiatives, from the Fed’s first chairman from private equity, are aimed at broadening public support at a time when the central bank is raising borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. Powell’s mission has taken on greater urgency given President Donald Trump’s attacks and the residual suspicion in Congress about Fed power. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-11/powell-set-to-widen-f…

END

To all our gold coin collectors:  The Yukon mint has produced a gold coin depicting the work of the Kaska nation artist Miranda Lane. Only 180 of the one oz and 140 of the half oz have been minted

(courtesy Yukon Mint/GATA)

Limited-edition coin evokes the Yukon with the territory’s own gold

 Section: 

1:57p ET Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Because of GATA’s Gold Rush 21 conference in Dawson City in the Yukon Territory in 2005, many GATA supporters have a special feeling for that remote but sensationally beautiful and historic part of Canada, so they may be interested in a five-day promotional offer for a gold coin produced by the Yukon Mint.

The coin, called the Kaska Keda, depicts the work of Kaska Nation artist Miranda Lane, one side showing the “keda,” the “true north” moose, the other side depicting a line of prospectors ascending a mountainside during the Klondike Gold Rush at the end of the 19th century.

The coin contains gold mined by Yukon gold explorer Golden Predator Mining Corp. and proceeds from the sale will be shared with the Kaska Nation.

The coin is available in 1-ounce and half-ounce weights of 0.9999 purity. Only 180 of the 1-ouncers and only 140 of the half-ouncers have been minted.

Special Christmas discount prices effective through the 15th are posted here:

http://gata.org/files/YukonMintChristmasSale.pdf

More information about the coin, the artist, and the mint is posted here:

https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/06/05/1516880/0/en/Golden-Pr…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Craig Hemke writes that gold and silver are expected to rise by the year end.  However expect the crooks to wait in the weeds ready to whack

(courtesy Craig Hemke/Sprott/GATA)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Gold and silver price goals for year-end

 Section: 

5:09p ET Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

According to the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke, writing again at Sprott Money, investors fairly may expect a rally in monetary metals prices around the turn of the year, since that has happened for the last five years. But, Hemke adds, bullion banks will be lying in wait to try to keep prices from breaking above too many moving averages.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Gold and Silver Price Goals for Year-End” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/gold-and-silver-price-goals-for-year-en…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Ed Steer’s gold and silver digest is posted in the clear at goldseek

(courtesy Steer/GATA/Goldseek

Today’s edition of Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Digest posted in the clear at GoldSeek

 Section: 

11:20p ET Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Today’s edition of GATA Board of Directors member Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Digest letter, headlined “The Powers That Be Were Everywhere Yesterday,” is posted in the clear at GoldSeek here:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1544563584.php

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org




iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

My goodness, Russia is mining gold like crazy:  for 9 months 243 tonnes of gold mined.  All of this goes to official reserves.  They are on tap to mine 324 tonnes of gold this year.
(courtesy RT)

Pedal to the yellow metal: Russia boosts year-on-year gold output by 3%

Pedal to the yellow metal: Russia boosts year-on-year gold output by 3%
Russia’s gold production increased by three percent from January through September against the same period a year ago, according to the Gold Industrialists’ Union.

Gold output reached 243,000 kilograms, the data from the Moscow-based group showed. The significant boost was reportedly due to increased volumes of ore processing in several of the country’s gold mines, including Olimpiada, the Blagodatnoe gold-sulfide deposit, the Verninskoe and Kuranakh mines, as well as others.

Production of high karat gold saw a two-percent increase, while by-product gold output was reduced by 13 percent. Scrap gold production declined by four percent. Output of the precious metal from derived products saw an enormous increase of 57 percent.

Russia is currently third in the global rating of gold miners after Australia and China. The Russian gold mining sector has nearly doubled its volume of extraction over the last two decades. Over the last ten years, the country’s producers mined 2,189 tons of gold, the Russian Union of Gold Producers reported in January.

Earlier this year, the Moscow-based Institute of Geotechnology forecasted that in less than a decade Russia may change its position in the rating of global gold miners. The country is expected to become the world’s second-largest producer due to the further boost of production.

Russia’s gold production had seen an annual growth by up to seven percent on average in ten years through 2017. Top producer Polyus and Polymetal used to account for most of the growth last year, and are expected to do so again in 2018.

Embedded video

RT

@RT_com

Russia’s gold reserves smash Soviet-era record as part of Moscow’s de-dollarization drive https://on.rt.com/9hrq 

 

 

Russia may be one of the world’s biggest gold producers, but it’s just the twentieth in the ranking of the biggest exporters of the precious metal, according to the trade metrics service World’s Top Exports. Most of the country’s gold is purchased by the government to boost national gold reserves.

For more stories on economy & finance visit RT’s business section

END

________________________________________

 

 

 

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.8878/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS ON TRUCE/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8845   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 8.06 POINTS OR 0.31%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 415.04 POINTS OR 1.61%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 454.73 POINTS OR 2.15%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 97.26/Euro RISES TO 1.1363

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.06/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 113.63/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 52.76 and Brent: 61.27

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.25%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.99% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.39%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.74: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.27

3k Gold at $1245.00 silver at:14.65   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 14/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.32

3m oil into the 51 dollar handle for WTI and 60 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.35DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9941 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1291 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.25%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.88% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.14%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.3770

 

Global Markets, US Futures Surge On Renewed Trade Hopes

In a carbon copy of yesterday’s early session, global stocks and US equity futures rallied amid renewed optimism of a thawing in U.S.-China trade relations after President Trump said he would intervene in Huawei case to get a trade deal with China and was ready to meet with Xi for a second time. The question now is whether the early rally will once again fizzle as it did 24 hours ago.

The pound strengthened as traders took news that Theresa May will face a vote of confidence from the Conservative Party she leads in stride, with sterling gaining as several ministers rushed to back her and she vowed to contest the vote “with everything I’ve got”, prompting analysts to conclude she may prevail.

Global markets were solidly in the green, with Asian and European shares enjoying big gains after Trump said talks were taking place with Beijing by phone and he would not raise tariffs on Chinese imports until he was sure about a deal. Trump also said he would intervene in the Justice Department’s case against a top executive at China’s Huawei Technologies if it would serve national security interests or help close a trade deal, after a Canadian court on Tuesday granted bail to the executive in a move that could help placate Chinese officials angered by her arrest.

S&P futures were 0.7% higher in a rerun of Tuesday’s morning session, buoyed by more Trump rhetoric after the president told Reuters that it would be a mistake if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates when it meets next week, as it is expected to do, continuing his criticism of the U.S. central bank. “I think that would be foolish, but what can I say?” Trump told Reuters in an interview. Trump said he needed the flexibility of lower interest rates to support the broader U.S. economy as he fights a growing trade battle against China, and potentially other countries. “You have to understand, we’re fighting some trade battles and we’re winning. But I need accommodation too,” he said.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei led the way in Asia with a jump of 2.2% while Shanghai blue chips rose a more modest 0.3%. London, Frankfurt and Paris then gained between 0.4 and 0.8 percent to push Europe higher.

“We are seeing risk sentiment stabilizing a bit,” said Societe Generale strategist Alvin Tan. “Firstly we had news that China was considering reducing tariffs on us car, then the Huawei CFO was released on bail and then Trump said could he intervene in the case if it helped secure a trade deal.”

Of course, having been repeatedly disappointed before, analysts were still being careful to not get too optimistic about prospects of a trade agreement. ING said the Huawei case made it increasingly obvious that the China-US trade war is about the exchange of technology, and there were also reports the United States would release evidence this week detailing Chinese hacking and economic espionage.

“Even if this (auto) step is taken it just removes what was a retaliatory measure to begin with,” noted ANZ economist David Plank. “Whatever the case, market price action is somewhat of a chop-fest, right now, as it swings around on each new headline.”

On Tuesday, markets had also been jolted when Trump threatened to shut down the government over funding for a wall he has promised to build on the southern border with Mexico; look for more drama out of the White House.

Meanwhile the Brexit drama may be approaching an endgame of sorts, when as noted above, the pound fell to 20-month lows overnight after lawmakers in May’s Conservative party gathered enough support to trigger a no-confidence vote in her leadership. But it stabilized as some investors bet that May would win Wednesday’s vote and in the process isolate opponents in her party who want a clean, sudden break from the EU. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the secret ballot capped gains, keeping the pound only just above $1.25, having shed 1.9 percent in the previous two sessions to a trough of $1.2483.

The vote of no-confidence will be held between 18.00GMT and 20.00GMT tonight, with results are to be announced at 21.00GMT. UK PM May said a new leader would have to extend or rescind Article 50, while adding she believes a deal with EU is attainable and within UK’s grasp after meeting with EU leaders yesterday. Chairman of 1922 committee Brady says that if a leadership contest were to occur, they would want to finish the parliamentary stage before Christmas. Meanwhile, ITV’s Peston tweeted that MP George Freeman appears to be saying that PM May is over, but that Tories have to find a way to replace her temporarily without a leadership election. Elsewhere, UK Shadow Brexit Minister Starmer said the opposition Labour party will call a no-confidence vote “before Christmas”.

“The market is concerned that May could be replaced by a Brexit-supporter, increasing the chance of a no-deal scenario,” said Rodrigo Catril, a senior FX strategist at NAB.

The dollar weakened versus most of its G-10 peers, as the yen slipped as demand for havens waned on signs the U.S.-China trade dispute may be easing. The recent slide in U.S. yields means that the prospect for “broad- based” yen appreciation appears to be increasing every day, Morgan Stanley strategists wrote in a note. The Aussie rose a second day as the offshore yuan climbed with Asian and European equities and U.S. stock futures.

Investors are also looking ahead to the U.S CPI later on Wednesday where an expected slowdown in headline inflation would only reinforce speculation of fewer rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

Meanwhile, in France, the spread between government bond yields and those in Germany were about the highest since the 2017 election. France’s Prime Minister Edouard Philippe confirmed that President Emmanuel Macron’s efforts to meet protester demands will have an impact on the country’s deficit, with the situation causing a new headache for the EU in its talks over the Italian budget.

Elsewhere, oil jumped on the easing trade war rhetoric and after the API oil report signaled a far greater than expected, 10 million draw in crude inventories. Treasuries edged lower after Trump warned the Federal Reserve against hiking interest rates this month. India’s bonds rallied after an ally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi was named as the new central bank chief. In terms of metals, spot gold (+0.1%) remains steady as the dollar index remains within a tight range while copper traded sideways near weekly highs in light of the improvement in risk sentiment. Elsewhere, Shanghai steel snapped a three-day losing streak amid talks of production cuts at the top steelmaking city, Tangshan.

Expected data include mortgage applications and inflation. Nordson is reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

 

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.8% to 2,662.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.9% to 347.15
  • MXAP up 1.5% to 150.16
  • MXAPJ up 1.3% to 483.90
  • Nikkei up 2.2% to 21,602.75
  • Topix up 2% to 1,606.61
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.6% to 26,186.71
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 2,602.15
  • Sensex up 1.8% to 35,769.11
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.4% to 5,653.50
  • Kospi up 1.4% to 2,082.57
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 0.241%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1329
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 2.756%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.3 bps to 1.424%
  • Brent futures up 1.7% to $61.22/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,244.11
  • U.S. Dollar Index unchanged at 97.38

 

Top Overnight News

  • Theresa May is fighting for her job as British prime minister after being told she will face a vote of no confidence in her leadership, throwing the U.K. into fresh turmoil and Brexit into disarray
  • Progress toward easing the steep tariffs China imposed on U.S. vehicle imports this year lifted carmaker stocks across the globe. President Trump says he’s willing to meet China’s leader Xi again as he hailed the country for resuming soybean purchases
  • President Trump said he would intervene in the case of Huawei CFO Meng if it would help win a trade deal with China
  • The European Commission took a step toward meeting the financial industry’s demands for a so-called equivalence decision that would help prevent a derivatives-market rupture in a no-deal Brexit
  • President Trump tells Reuters it would be a mistake if the Fed increases interest rates when it meets next week, with the flexibility of lower rates needed to support the U.S. economy amid the trade war with China
  • Trump staged a confrontation Tuesday with the two top congressional Democrats before television cameras in the Oval Office as the dispute over funding for his border wall turned publicly acrimonious
  • As Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte prepares to present his budget in Brussels on Wednesday, one of the main powers behind Italy’s government, League leader Matteo Salvini, may be looking beyond the crisis a failed spending plan could trigger and toward new elections early next year, la Repubblica reported; Salvini said the report on early elections was fake news, according to newswire Ansa
  • France’s government will face a no-confidence vote in parliament Thursday, according to AFP
  • Sovereign bonds and stocks rallied in India on optimism of a more dovish monetary policy after the government named former bureaucrat Shaktikanta Das as the central bank chief. The rupee weakened amid investor concerns about central bank independence.

Asian stocks traded higher across the board with sentiment underpinned as news flow spurred optimism regarding US-China trade relations, including reports that China submitted a proposal for review that would cut tariffs on imports of US autos to 15% from 40%. ASX 200 (+1.4%) and Nikkei 225 (+2.2%) gained from the open with energy and tech the front-runners in Australia, while the Japanese benchmark outperformed as it benefitted from USD/JPY’s slipstream and with the BoJ said to have purchased a record JPY 6tln of ETFs so far this year. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) were positive on hopes of a potential tariff cut on US autos and encouraging comments from US President Trump, while news that Huawei’s CFO was released on bail and the recent better than expected lending data from China also added to the optimism. Finally, 10yr JGBs are subdued with demand dampened by the gains in stocks and amid spill-over weakness from T-notes.

Top Asian News

  • Tencent Music Sets $1.1 Billion IPO at Bottom as Markets Gyrate
  • China Said to Near Megamerger of ChemChina, Sinochem Group
  • Citi Hires HSBC Veteran to Head Thai Corporate, Investment Bank
  • Hitachi to Buy ABB’s Power-Grid Unit for $7 Billion, Nikkei Says
  • Vietnam Is Coming Out on Top in the U.S.-China Trade War

European equities are higher across the board (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.3%) following the strong performance experienced in Asia overnight after sentiment was underpinned as news flow spurred optimism regarding a US-China trade deal. France’s CAC 40 (+1.6%) outperforms its peers on the back of shares in Kering (+2.0%) amid an upgrade at Deutsche Bank and Pernod Ricard (+3.6%) after upbeat comments from activist investor Elliott on the Co. Meanwhile, Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.80%) marginally lags peers as the index is weighed on by shares in heavyweight Inditex (-4.0%) following disappointing earnings. Moving on, sectors are experiencing broad-based gains with marginal outperformance in utility names. In terms of notable movers, auto names are performing particularly well (Stoxx 600 Auto & Parts +1.5%) in a continuation of the positive momentum from potential Chinese tariffs cuts on US autos from 40% to 15%. Meanwhile, Dixons Carphone (-8.2%) shares fell in excess of 10% at one point after the company downgraded interim dividend guidance alongside expectations for higher net debt.

Top European News

  • Italy’s Salvini May Seek New Election as Budget Fuels Crisis
  • Inditex Resists Discount Pressure, Making Sales Target Harder
  • Sainsbury, Asda Seek More Time to Handle Regulator’s Review
  • Siemens, Alstom to Sell Signaling, Trains for Rail Merger
  • Thyssenkrupp Supervisory Board Said to Favor Merz as Chair

In FX, GBP is not just the most volatile major, but displaying considerable resilience (or complacency?) in the face of perhaps the biggest Brexit hurdle in the form of a challenge to UK PM May’s leadership, not to mention all the political uncertainty if she fails to survive. However, Cable has recovered well from new ytd lows circa 1.2478 and almost reached 1.2550 before waning again as a number of high profile Cabinet members voiced public support for the current Conservative head in the run up to tonight’s confidence vote. A hefty 1 bn option expiry at the 1.2500 strike may be exerting a gravitational pull, while Eur/Gbp is pivoting 0.9950, as the single currency continues to weather its own storm via Italian and French budget excesses.

  • EUR/AUD/CAD/CHF/JPY:All narrowly mixed vs a generally firmer Greenback (DXY just off a fresh 97.500 recent peak) and the ongoing revival in broad risk sentiment amidst heightened hopes of a tangible improvement in US-China trade relations. Eur/Usd has survived another, deeper test of 1.1300 support where a massive 2.4 bn expiries reside and are perhaps helping to keep the headline pair cushioned against Italian/French deficit issues ahead of Thursday’s ECB policy meeting. Meanwhile, the Aud and Loonie are feeding off the aforementioned improved risk appetite, with the former holding above 0.7200 and latter rebounding a bit further from 1.3400+ lows with the added incentive of rebounding crude prices. The Franc is meandering in a tight range between 0.9950-20 and encircling 1.1250 vs the Eur awaiting the final 2018 SNB Quarterly review tomorrow, while Usd/Jpy is equally restrained within 113.50-30 trading parameters with the topside said to be laden with Japanese offers.
  • EM: In contrast to the Sek, firmer than expected SA CPI has underpinned the Zar around 14.3100 vs the Dollar, but the Rand may also be drawing momentum from option-related flows alongside bullish technical impulses as 1 bn expiries roll off at the 14.5000 strike today

In commodities, WTI (+1.8%) and Brent (+1.7%) trade with firm gains amid the improvement in the risk sentiment as US-Sino trade discussion seem to be on track, with US President Trump expressing optimism via Twitter yesterday. Furthermore, prices may be underpinned in light of last night’s API crude inventories which showed a much wider-than-expected draw of 10.18mln barrels vs. the expected draw of 3.0mln barrels. Traders will be eyeing this afternoon’s weekly DoE inventory release for a fresh catalyst (alongside production numbers) in which crude inventories are expected to decrease by 3.0mln barrels. In terms of metals, spot gold (+0.1%) remains steady as the dollar index remains within a tight range while copper traded sideways near weekly highs in light of the improvement in risk sentiment. Elsewhere, Shanghai steel snapped a three-day losing streak amid talks of production cuts at the top steelmaking city, Tangshan.

Looking at the day ahead, in the US it’s all eyes on the aforementioned November CPI report. Also due out is the November monthly budget statement. Away from all that we’re expecting to hear Italian PM Conte today when he speaks to Italy’s lower house of parliament. The European Parliament is also due to vote on the draft free-trade agreement between the US and Japan, German Chancellor Merkel answers questions from members of the Bundestag and the WTO general council two-day meeting begins. OPEC’s monthly oil market report is probably also worth a close watch.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 2.0%
  • 8:30am: US CPI MoM, est. 0.0%, prior 0.3%; Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30am: US CPI YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 2.5%; CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 2.1%
  • 8:30am: Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 0.88%; Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 0.7%
  • 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $199.0b deficit, prior $100.5b deficit

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’m in Paris for a couple of days where I last night nervously watched a make or break Liverpool game (make thankfully) in the Champions League in my hotel room. It was stressful enough but half way through the first half a member of the hotel staff knocked on the door and came in and said “turn down, turn down”. I said “sorry, sorry” and ushered him out of my room as it was too tense to have my eyes averted for long. I figured that because both my ears are blocked with infections I’d been watching it unintentionally loud and annoyed my neighbour.

So I carried on watching it at low volume, barely able to hear the commentary or the atmosphere. It wasn’t until I went to bed after the match that I realised my bed had about 15 pillows on it and hadn’t been “turned down”. It then dawned on me that the guy wanted to do my bed and that because I’d misunderstood and tried to get rid of him ASAP, I’d ended up watching more than  half the game at an inaudible volume. At least I think that’s why!!

From vol(ume) to vol(altility) with yesterday seeing another notable swing in the US after Monday’s large intra-day recovery. Markets closed flatish but early strong momentum faded fast after a confrontational meeting in the White House between President Trump and congressional Democrats. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ opened up +1.37% and 1.56%, but fell around noon in New York (down just over -0.5% at the lows) and ultimately closed -0.04% and +0.16% respectively. The eventful meeting at the White House ended in acrimony, with both sides positioning ahead of an increasingly-likely shutdown when the federal budget lapses later this month. Such rancour does not look positive for the odds of economically-positive legislation next year, whether via infrastructure, further tax reform, or something else.

This morning in Asia markets are largely trading higher with the Nikkei (+2.02%), Hang Seng (+1.54%), Shanghai Comp (+0.20%) and Kospi (+1.33%) all up as US President Trump expressed optimism over the US-China trade talks in an overnight interview with Reuters. He said that China is buying a “tremendous amount” of US soybeans and trade discussions with Beijing are underway by telephone, with more meetings likely between US and Chinese officials while adding that he’s also willing to meet with China’s Xi Jinping again on trade if needed. Sentiment is also being aided to some extent by the overnight granting of bail to Huawei’s CFO by the Canadian court and President Trump’s suggesting, in the same interview with Reuters, that he might consider intervening in Huawei case if it would serve national security and help with a China trade deal. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.27% and the 2s10s treasury curve has flattened further to +10.8. In commodities, Chicago board Soybean futures are up +0.38%, back to the levels last seen in August.

Earlier yesterday, European markets were playing catch up with the US from Monday, however broader sentiment was helped by the news that a proposal had been submitted to China’s Cabinet – which is to be reviewed over the next couple of days – to reduce tariffs on US made cars to 15% from 40% currently.

It’s worth noting that the 40% tariff was a retaliatory move – so this is just a move back to the original tariff rate, but automakers nevertheless rallied strongly. The autos indexes in Europe and the US gained +2.34% and +0.61% respectively. Anyhow EM equities also climbed on the news, with the MSCI EM index ending +0.21%. Gold (-0.12%) nudged lower while WTI Oil (+1.88%) climbed back to around$52/bbl. Credit also had a better day with US HY cash spreads finishing -6bps tighter. Meanwhile 10-yearTreasuries yields rose +2.0bps with the 2s10s curve another -1.7bps flatter and at 11.1bps is now at a new closing low for this cycle (the intraday low is still 9.7bps from last Tuesday).

As for Brexit, well it was always going to be hard to top Monday for headlines, however constant speculation from various reputable sources suggesting that 48 letters had been submitted and therefore triggering a no confidence vote in PM May kept the story alive. This still hasn’t been confirmed as it requires the chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbenchers Graham Brady to officially announce that enough letters have been submitted. The BBC and ITV reported that Mr. Brady has asked to see Mrs. May after PMQs at lunchtime today which sounds ominous. However, this was subsequently contradicted by the City AM’s politics reporter on Twitter citing a source. So, still a lot of uncertainty over this. The pound quickly sold off after speculation spread to end last night -0.57% (and down -1.18% from the day’s highs) and is up +0.17% in early trade this morning.

DB’s Oliver Harvey highlighted in his note ( link ) yesterday that the probability of a vote of no confidence had risen following Monday’s debacle. Oliver views this as a negative for markets. Due to a lack of internal consensus within the parliamentary Conservative Party on a future leader, a vote by the party membership on two candidates is still likely to follow, with a hard or no deal Brexit MP the probable winner. It may be possible for parliament to block a no deal outcome in these circumstances but the political process is far from straightforward.

There’s plenty going on across the Channel too, where French government ministers spent much of yesterday defending President Macron’s new spending measures and tax cuts. The suggestion is that the measures could bring France’s headline deficit to 3.5% of GDP. For context, France’s government had previously expected the deficit to hit 2.8% next year versus 2.6% this year. As we know from the ongoing Italy saga the limit imposed on countries in the Eurozone is 3%. The stimulative impacts of the measures may however put the deficit in the 3-3.5% range. French assets were fairly well behaved all things considered. The CAC closed +2.35% and rose in line with other European markets while 10y OAT yields rose +1.9bps – a fairly modest move. Bunds finished-1.4bps lower at 0.23% and a new 18-month low.

In other news, yesterday’s November PPI report was one for the hawks with the core reading of +0.3% mom coming in well ahead of the +0.1% expected. More importantly, the health care component printed at +0.27% mom which in turn lifted the annual rate just over three-tenths to +1.71% yoy and so unwinding some of the post-September decline. This is important as the health care component from the PPI report feeds into core PCE. So it would appear that there are now upside risks to the November PCE report.

The above dovetails nicely into today’s big data highlight – the November CPI report in the US. As we go to print, the consensus for the core measure is for +0.2% mom which should be enough to nudge up the annual rate by one-tenth to +2.2% yoy. The headline – where the consensus is at 0.0% mom – should be depressed by the impact of a big move in energy prices in November. Retail automotive gas prices are down -16.6% since their recent October peak. Our US economists are forecasting an unrounded +0.22% mom core CPI reading and assuming this is close to the mark, then the annual rate would rise to +2.25% yoy, and therefore undo about half of the slide since the July post-recession peak of +2.33%.

As for the other data that was out yesterday, in the UK the October unemployment rate was confirmed as holding steady at 4.1%, however there was a nice surprise for the pound with basic weekly earnings growth coming in at +3.3% yoy (vs. +3.2% expected) for the three months to October. That’s the fastest pace of wage growth in over ten years. Sterling climbed to as high as +0.60% mid-morning but gave all that up in the afternoon session seemingly as the focused turned back to the May/Brexit debacle as mentioned above. In Germany, the ZEW survey was mixed, as the current situation assessment fell around 13pts to 45.3 and the forward-looking expectations index rose 6.6pts to -17.5. Still, that’s the ninth consecutive negative print for the expectations index, which is the longest such stretch since 2008-2009.

As for the day ahead, it’s fairly quiet for data this morning in Europe with only the Euro Area industrial production print for October  due. This afternoon in the US it’s all eyes on the aforementioned November CPI report. Also due out is the November monthly budget statement. Away from all that we’re expecting to hear Italian PM Conte today when he speaks to Italy’s lower house of parliament. The European Parliament is also due to vote on the draft free-trade agreement between the US and Japan, German Chancellor Merkel answers questions from members of the Bundestag and the WTO general council two-day meeting begins. OPEC’s monthly oil market report is probably also worth a close watch.

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.06 POINTS OR 0.21% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 415.04 POINTS OR 1.61% //The Nikkei closed UP 454.73 OR 2.15%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.34%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8878 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 52.76 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.27 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8878AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8845: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

END

3 C CHINA

Huawei CFO Meng is granted bail but she must stay in Canada and submit to a 24 /7 surveillance. China is not happy with this:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Huawei CFO Granted Bail, Must Post C$10MM Bond And Submit To 24-7 Surveillance

After three days and a lengthy recap of both the government’s case for holding Meng Wanzhou and her defense attorney’s case for offering her a surety bond, British Columbia Supreme Court Justice Ehrcke has ruled that he is satisfied with the terms Meng’s lawyer is proposing for her bail. The Huawei CFO will be released from custody and live at her Vancouver home under round-the-clock in-person surveillance, and she will also wear an electronic ankle monitor while she awaits extradition hearings. Meng must also surrender her passport. Meng must also cover all the costs of her surveillance, carry paperwork detailing the terms of her bail at all times, and submit to checks from the RCMP. She will also be subject to a curfew.

The financial terms of her bail were steep: They required at least five people to post $3 million in collateral and a $7 million cash deposit. Meng’s next court date has been set for Feb. 6.

Meng

All of those who came forward are residents of British Columbia who came forward in court and affirmed that they would be comfortable contributing to Meng’s bond, according to Global News. One of the individuals was a realtor who worked with the Meng family, another is a homemaker and family friend.

A Vancouver realtor who helped Meng’s family purchase their Vancouver homes said he will pledge his $1.8-million property and act as surety, the court heard. An insurance agent who has been a Canadian citizen since 1999 and once worked with Meng at Huawei also offered to act as surety. He said he has known Meng since the mid-1990s and is pledging $500,000 of equity from his $1.4-million home.

The third surety is a homemaker. Her husband used to work at Huawei and knew Meng well, the court heard. She pledged $850,000 of equity from her home on Vancouver’s west side.

Another surety is one of Meng’s Vancouver neighbours who says she is close to the family, particularly with the parents of Meng’s husband. She pledged $50,000 in cash.

During a review of the opposing cases for whether Meng should receive bail, Justice Ehrcke noted that Meng was arrested on a provisional warrant and that the US must complete documentation to lodge an official extradition request.

Meng’s attorney has already selected a private security company that he asked be given the authority to apprehend Meng should she violate the terms of her bail. The company is called Lions Gate Risk Management. While on bail, Meng said she would like to remain in Vancouver to try and obtain her PhD at a local university.

On Monday, Meng’s lawyer David Martin suggested if she is granted bail, a private security firm — Lions Gate Risk Management — be given the authority to apprehend Meng if she breaches bail.

Lions Gate executive director Scot Filer said in the event bail was granted, Meng could be supervised by his company. His plan would include a dedicated driver and security team; an encrypted system for texting, videos, and GPS; a home security package; and a weekly itinerary provided by Meng.

Lawyers for the Canadian government have expressed concerns that hackers could tamper with Meng’s electronic surveillance – hence the in-person guards.

Crown attorney John Gibb-Carsley said Monday the family did own two Vancouver properties, but Meng only visited the area two or three weeks every year.

Gibb-Carsley noted the risk of hackers impacting Meng’s electronic surveillance, raising the possibility, however remote, that the CFO of a global communications company has “the ability to compromise the system.”

He also noted that Lions Gate has done security monitoring, but never monitored someone on bail. He called the risk associated with the case “an inch wide but a mile deep.”

The CFO’s supporters reportedly applauded after the decision was handed down. Meng reportedly turned around in court and smiled at her husband, and gave a brief wave to her supporters.

  • CANADA JUDGE SAYS MENG MUST REMAIN IN RESTRICTED VANCOUVER AREA
  • BAIL FOR HUAWEI CFO SUBJECT TO C$10 MLN GUARANTEE, INCLUDING C$7.5 MLN CASH
  • OTHER CONDITIONS FOR BAIL INCLUDE 5 SURETIES OR GUARANTORS

Huawei has released a terse statement addressing Meng’s release:

Statement

And while so much of the focus on this case has focused on Meng’s bail terms, @fxmacro makes a good point…the case is moving forward…that’s what really matters here.

FxMacro@fxmacro

CANADA SETS NEXT COURT DATE FOR MENG ON FEB. 6 bail doesn’t matter the case is moving forward that’s what matters…

END

Trump will not be happy with this:  the hack of 500 million Marriott guests are now traced to Chinese intelligence

(courtesy zerohedge)

Hack Of 500 Million Marriott Guests Traced To Chinese Intelligence Services

First it was the North Korean hackers that were accused of somehow hacking into Sony’s unbreakable firewall. Then, for a period of almost three years, not a single computer, voting booth, or nuclear power plant appeared to be safe from the Russian hacking scourge, which according to much of the US press, singlehandedly won the election for Trump.

Well, step aside Russians and make room for the Chinese hacker army, because according to the NYT citing two sources, the recent cyberattack on the Marriott hotel chain that collected passport information or other personal details of roughly 500 million guests was part of a Chinese intelligence-gathering effort that hacked health insurers, other hotels and the security clearance files of millions more Americans.

And just like in the Russian narrative, these were no ordinary hackers, but the kind that worked on behalf of the Ministry of State Security.

The latest discovery comes at a very opportunistic time: just as the Trump administration plans a series of actions targeting China’s trade, cyber and economic policies. As reported earlier, even as the trade war between the US and China is supposedly in a tenuous ceasefire, the DOJ is preparing to announce new indictments against Chinese hackers working for the intelligence and military services. The Trump administration also plans to declassify intelligence to reveal concerted efforts by Chinese agents, dating to 2014 or earlier, to build a database containing names of executives and American government officials with security clearances.

Finally, as we discussed yesterday when we commented that the real reason for the US-China trade war is the US desire to halt or at least delay China from manufacturing its own high-tech semiconductors, the NYT also adds that the Trump administration is considering an executive order intended to make it harder for Chinese companies to obtain critical telecommunications equipment.

The coordinated moves against Chinese hackers are expected to be announced within days, and stem from the growing concern within the administration that “the 90-day trade truce negotiated between President Trump and President Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires two weeks ago may do little to change China’s behavior — including coercing American companies to hand over valuable technology if they seek to enter the Chinese market, as well as the theft of industrial secrets on behalf of state-owned companies.”

Meanwhile, the actual hack of Marriott’s Starwood chain, which was only revealed late last month after being discovered in September, is not expected to be part of the coming indictments.

But two of the government officials said it has added urgency to the administration’s crackdown, given that Marriott is the top hotel provider for United States government and military personnel.

The crackdown is in response to what has vexed the Trump administration as Russia China appears to have reverted over the past 18 months to the kind of cyber intrusions into American companies and government agencies that former President Barack Obama thought he had ended with a 2015 agreement with Mr. Xi.

And just like Russia, China has denied any knowledge.

Geng Shuang, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, denied any knowledge of the Marriott hack. “China firmly opposes all forms of cyberattack and cracks down on it in accordance with the law,” he said. “If offered evidence, the relevant Chinese departments will carry out investigations according to the law.”

“China is one of the major victims of threats to cyber security including cyberhacking,” he said.

Logically, the risk with the coming sweeping accusations, is that while top administration officials insist that the trade talks are proceeding on a separate track, the broader crackdown on China could undermine Trump’s ability to reach an agreement with Xi as American charges against senior members of China’s intelligence services — in tandem with the targeting of high-profile technology executives, like Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of the communications giant Huawei and daughter of its founder — risk hardening opposition in Beijing to negotiating with Mr. Trump.

Over the weekend, China was infuriated by the arrest of Meng, who was detained in Canada on suspicion of fraud involving violations of United States sanctions in Iran. She was granted bail of 10 million Canadian dollars, or $7.5 million, while awaiting extradition to the United States, a Canadian judge ruled on Tuesday.

In response, American business leaders have been bracing for retaliation from China, which has demanded the immediate release of Meng and accused both the United States and Canada of violating her human rights. On Tuesday, the International Crisis Group said that one of its employees, a former Canadian diplomat, had been detained in China. The disappearance of the former diplomat, Michael Kovrig, could further inflame tensions between China and Canada. “We are doing everything possible to secure additional information on Michael’s whereabouts as well as his prompt and safe release,” the group said in a statement on its website.

Late on Tuesday, in an interview with Reuters, Trump said that he would consider intervening in the Huawei case if it would help serve national security and help get a trade deal done with China. Such a move would essentially pit Trump against his own Justice Department, which coordinated with Canada to arrest Meng as she changed planes in Vancouver.

“If I think it’s good for what will be certainly the largest trade deal ever made — which is a very important thing — what’s good for national security — I would certainly intervene if I thought it was necessary,” Mr. Trump said.

Of course, now that cyberwarfare is the strawman to escalate any diplomatic feud, from the first revelation that the Marriott chain’s computer systems had been breached, there was widespread suspicion in both Washington and among cybersecurity firms that the hack was not a matter of commercial espionage, but part of a much broader spy campaign to amass Americans’ personal data; one in which Chinese crack hacker inexplicably left “fingerprints” confirming they were behind the attack.

Meanwhile, since the Marriott database contained not only credit card information but passport data, that particular intrusion would allegedly have given China access to confidential data belonging to hundreds of millions of Americans.  Specifically, according to the NYT, Chinese spies stole passport numbers for up to 327 million people — many of whom stayed at Sheraton Hotels, Westin and W Hotels and other Starwood brands. But Marriott has not said if it would pay to replace those passports, an undertaking that would cost tens of billions of dollars.

Lisa Monaco, the former White House homeland security adviser, noted at a conference last week that passport information would be particularly valuable in tracking who is crossing borders, what they look like, and other key data.

Why would China need this data?

James Lewis, a cybersecurity expert at the Center for Strategic Studies in Washington, said the Chinese have collected “huge pots of data” to feed a Ministry of State Security database seeking to identify American spies — and the Chinese people talking to them. “Big data is the new wave for counterintelligence,” Mr. Lewis said.

“It’s Big Data hoovering,” said Dmitri Alperovitch, the chief technology officer at CrowdStrike, who first highlighted Chinese hacking as a threat researcher in 2011 and who was also instrumental in launching the witch hunt targeting Russians in the summer of 2016, accusing them of hacking the DNC server which has yet to be investigated by the FBI. “This data is all going back to a data lake that can be used for counterintelligence, recruiting new assets, anti-corruption campaigns or future targeting of individuals or organizations.”

The effort to amass Americans’ personal information so alarmed government officials that in 2016 the Obama administration threatened to block a $14 billion bid by China’s Anbang Insurance Group to acquire Starwood Hotel & Resorts Worldwide, according to one former official familiar with the work of the Committee on Foreign Investments in the United States, a secretive government body that reviews foreign acquisitions. Eventually, the failed bid cleared the way for Marriott Hotels to acquire Starwood for $13.6 billion later that year, becoming the world’s largest hotel chain.

As it turned out, it was too late: Starwood’s data had already been stolen by Chinese state hackers, though the breach was not discovered until this past summer, and disclosed by Marriott on Nov. 30.

Ironically, while it is unclear that any kind of trade agreement reached with China by the Trump administration can address this kind of theft, the Chinese regard intrusions into hotel chain databases as a standard kind of espionage. So does the United States, which has often seized guest data from foreign hotels.

Separately, since 2012, analysts at the National Security Agency and its British counterpart, the G.C.H.Q., have watched with growing alarm as sophisticated Chinese hackers, based in the Chinese city of Tianjin, began switching targets from companies and government agencies in the defense, energy and aerospace sectors, to organizations that housed troves of Americans’ personal information.

At the time, one classified National Security Agency report noted that the hackers’ “exact affiliation with Chinese government entities is not known, but their activities indicate a probable intelligence requirement feed” from China’s Ministry of State Security, the country’s Communist-controlled civilian spy agency.

Of course, this is the same NSA which as Edward Snowden revealed several years ago, was just as busy spying on foreign targets as it was on America’s own citizens.

end

This would be a major concession if it comes true:  China is preparing to replace its “Made in China 2025” with opening up its borders

(courtesy zerohedge)

In Giant Trade War Concession, China Prepares To Replace “Made In China 2025”

Did President Trump just win the trade war?

Stocks futures exploded higher Wednesday morning following a report in the Wall Street Journal claiming that China is planning to increase access to its domestic market. If accurate, this would constitute a major concession in the trade war and address one of the Trump Administration’s biggest complaints about the inherent unfairness and anti-competitiveness of China’s “Made in China 2025” policy.

China’s top planning ministry is working on a replacement for “Made in China 2025” that would play down Chinese dominance in manufacturing and open the door to more competition from foreign firms.

China’s top planning agency and senior policy advisers are drafting the replacement for Made in China 2025—President Xi Jinping’s blueprint to make the country a leader in high-tech industries, from robotics to information to clean-energy cars. The revised plan would play down China’s bid to dominate manufacturing and be more open to participation by foreign companies, these people said.

Current plans, these people said, call for rolling out the new policy early next year, a time when the U.S. and China are expected to be accelerating negotiations for a deal to end their bruising trade battle.

One of the biggest concessions would be abandoning targets for domestic content for components, something that Chinese officials are likely considering for their own economic reasons – like mitigating waste and leading to better market returns – rather than doing it purely to appease Trump.

A key concession under consideration would be dropping the numerical targets for market share by Chinese companies, these people said. Made in China 2025 sets defined goals of raising domestic content of core components and materials to 40% by 2020 and 70% by 2025, an increase that comes at the expense of foreign competitors.

Chinese officials backing the proposed changes emphasize that China needs to move away from Made in China 2025 and state-led development for its own reasons. President Xi’s economic adviser, Vice Premier Liu He, and other senior officials have criticized Made in China 2025 for creating waste. Cheap loans made available by various levels of government, for example, have led to extreme overcapacity among electric-vehicle battery makers in the past couple of years, making the sector less viable.

It’s also worth noting that the decision to abandon “China 2025” isn’t entirely unexpected.

Chinese leaders in recent months have stopped mentioning the Made in China plan in public remarks. At a press conference last month, President Trump took credit for China shelving the plan, saying, “China got rid of their China ’25 because I found it very insulting.”

But rather than uncritically embracing the reforms, the Trump Administration will likely remain skeptical – at least at first – as WSJ reports that China likely won’t go as far as the US would like, and some US officials might see the changes as “more cosmetic than real.”

The revision is also likely to be treated with skepticism in the U.S. Officials in the Trump administration have called Made in China 2025 a threat to fair competition, saying it encourages state subsidies for domestic companies and forces technology transfer from foreign partners. Some U.S. officials are likely to see the changes as more cosmetic than real.

Stock futures climbed on the news as investors now have good reason to believe that Wednesday’s session won’t be a re-run of Tuesday.

Two

For context, stocks remain well below the post-G20 truce highs, so this WSJ rumor is not convincing everyone.
Stocks

And offshore yuan also moved higher as trade tensions eased.

Dow

The WSJ report adds to a raft of market-positive trade-related news released over the past 16 hours, including President Trump saying during an interview with Reuters that he could intervene in the prosecution of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou (who was granted bail by a Canadian judge) as part of a trade pact with China. Trump also said he was ready to meet with President Xi again. Talks with Beijing are already making progress, and Trump stressed that he wouldn’t move ahead with the next round of tariff escalations until he was sure about a deal. Yesterday, reports suggested that China was preparing to role back its punitive tariffs on US autos, but those were quickly overshadowed by a contentious White House meeting between Trump and Democratic Congressional leaders, as well as intensifying anxieties about Brexit.

end
This was largely expected: China buys 500,000 tonnes of soybeans from the USA.
(courtesy zerohedge)

In First Major Purchase Since “Trade War Truce”, China Buy 500,000 Tonnes Of US Soybeans

Despite numerous pitfalls and occasional arrests, the truce between Trump and Xi appears to be bearing fruit, or rather vegetables.

According to Reuters, Chinese state-owned companies bought at least 500,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans on Wednesday in the first major purchases since Trump and Xi met in early December and cobbled together a ceasefire in the trade war between the US and China.

Citing one trader, Reuters said that at least nine cargoes traded and “there were probably more.”

A second trader with direct knowledge of the deals said Chinese state-owned firms bought at least 12 cargoes for shipment between January and March.

China is the largest buyer of U.S. soy, but has purchased almost nothing since Beijing slapped steep tariffs on U.S. shipments on July 6 in retaliation for duties on Chinese goods, pushing soybean prices to the lowest level in years this summer. However, since their lows in late September, soybean prices have rebounded by 13% on anticipation China will resume purchases, as it now appears to be doing.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

Deutsche bank handicaps the odds that the UK government will collapse.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Deutsche Bank Raises Odds That UK Government Will Collapse

Shortly before the first headlines claiming that the conservatives’ 1922 Committee had finally reached the 48-letter threshold to call a no confidence vote in Theresa May hit the tape, Deutsche Bank analysts published an extremely timely update to its projected Brexit outcome odds that featured a decidedly bearish tilt.

In the wake of last week’s historic contempt vote that forced May to publish the damaging attorney generals’ findings (which confirmed the worst-case scenario touted by Brexiteers in their warnings about the UK potentially becoming a vassal state), DB has raised the odds that May could be ousted either in an intra-party no-confidence vote or a (significantly more bearish) no confidence vote in May’s government (which could clear the way for a general election).

May

Regardless of whether May manages to hold on to power, DB’s “base case” for the timing of successful passage of a deal has shifted to Q1 (something that analysts at Goldman Sachs had pegged from the beginning, noting the tendency for any negotiations involving the EU to go down to the wire).

However, if May manages to secure “meaningful clarification” from the EU regarding the Irish backstop (something that most analysts believe to be unlikely, given senior EU bureaucrats’ insistence that negotiations cannot be reopened) it’s possible a vote on the current deal could come before lawmakers leave for their holiday recess on Dec. 20.

As it stands, DB analysts believe the three most likely scenarios for reaching a deal (presumably, a deal will be reached, they believe, given the absence of any meaningful political will for a ‘no deal’ Brexit) are: Abandoning the backstop in favor of the earlier Northern Ireland-specific backstop (which could win over votes from Tory backbenchers but alienate the DUP), using the political declaration to reach some kind of compromise with Labour (which the analysts admit is unlikely) or deferring a vote on the current agreement until next year, where May has set a ‘hard’ deadline of Jan. 21 for a vote.

There are three possible alternatives. The first is that the UK wide backstop is scrapped altogether in favour of just a Northern Ireland specific backstop (i.e. that the government return to a previous draft of the Withdrawal Agreement). Assuming the EU27 agree, this could win more support for the government from Conservative backbench MPs, but would lose the government support from the DUP. It is not clear whether this could win support from Labour MPs – our view is this is unlikely unless changes are made to the political declaration on the future relationship. In these circumstances, the government would still face defeat in parliament.

The second option is that Prime Minister May decides to create room for compromise with Labour backbenchers by utilizing the political declaration on the future relationship. At this stage such an outcome looks implausible but given the extremely fluid political situation cannot be ruled out. Such an outcome would be the most bullish, as this path has the highest chance of securing the government a majority in the House of Commons.

The third option is that Prime Minister May stalls for time, and defers a parliamentary vote until the New Year. In these circumstances the ‘hard stop’ for the government is the 21st January. According to the Brexit Withdrawal Bill, should the government fail to reach agreement with the EU27 by that date, a minister must give a Statement to the House of Commons and the House of Commons would vote on a neutral motion either approving the government’s plans or rejecting them.

Whichever option May chooses, if her deal is ultimately defeated in a vote, it would open the door to a no confidence in her government and – possibly – general elections. This outcome would be extremely market negative.

In our view, should a vote be put before the House of Commons without an attempt to reach across party lines, the government is likely to be defeated. Our prior had been such a defeat could create the political room for a compromise, but with Prime Minister May having staked so much politically on her current Brexit agreement, this is now less certain. As a result, the prospects of Prime Minister May either being forced out in a Conservative no confidence motion, resigning, or the government falling in a vote of no confidence have increased.

Here’s a breakdown of DB’s probabilities:

  • May passes current deal or modified softer Brexit agreement through parliament: 50% (previously 65%).
  • May loses confidence vote or resigns, or government voted down by DUP and early general election: 30% (previously 10%).
  • Second referendum: 20% (previously 25%).

And a handy flow chart that helps drive home DB’s point that whatever happens next is anybody’s guess:

Brexit

 

end
Although intra party she passes on a confidence vote by 200 to 117, the fact that over 100 of her party voted against her is very problematic for the Brexit vote
(courtesy zerohedge)

May Survives Confidence Vote; Final Tally Is 200-117

Update 4: During a brief address to her Tory peers after the results were announced, May said that she had listened to her critics, but that now it is time to ‘get on with it’ and pass a Brexit withdrawal treaty.

Embedded video

Bloomberg Brexit

@Brexit

BREAKING: “We now need to get on with the job of delivering Brexit,” Theresa May says after winning confidence vote http://bloom.bg/2RSayRC 

27 people are talking about this

* * *

Update 3: It’s official: May has won the leadership contest. 200 backed her while 117 voted against.

Analysts said that if more than 100 Tories voted against May, it could create problems for her government and draw her credibility as prime minister into question.

Sterling has started moving lower on the result (though it remains up on the day), as traders are correctly assessing that this doesn’t bode well for May’s Brexit deal (though she did receive more votes of support than when she was first elected prime minister, that margin improved by a mere 5 votes from 195 to 200).

GBP

As ITV’s Robert Peston pointed out, more than half of the independent Tory MPs (that is, those who don’t hold a post in the government), voted against the prime minister, which hardly inspires confidence.

Robert Peston

@Peston

.@theresa_may wins 200 to 117. This is not a great result for the prime minister

Robert Peston

@Peston

Well over half of independent Tory MPs voted against her – and even then she had to concede she would not lead party into next election.

243 people are talking about this

As Bloomberg’s David Goodman points out, this doesn’t bode well for May’s Brexit deal.

Assuming those 117 Tory MPs will vote against May’s Brexit deal (obviously not a given), that result bodes pretty badly for her chances of getting it through Parliament.

Already, May’s intraparty rivals are piling on…

  • EUROSCEPTIC LAWMAKER REES-MOGG SAYS THIS IS A TERRIBLE RESULT

Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn said the vote this evening makes no difference to British people, according to Bloomberg.

“The Prime Minister has lost her majority in Parliament, her government is in chaos and she is unable to deliver a Brexit deal that works for the country and puts jobs and the economy first.”

May will now return to Brussels on Thursday without the strong mandate she had hoped to win. She will face off against EU leaders with “her leadership shaken and leaving behind a bitterly divided party,” according to the Financial Times.

And while May’s most ardent supporters wasted no time hurling insulates at some of the Brexiteer leadership…

Neil O’Brien, a moderate Tory MP, called some of his colleagues “headbangers,” while industry minister Richard Harrington said of the Brexiters: “They have shot their bolt. They are a minority within a minority. They are like student union kids.”

James Cleverly, deputy Tory chairman, said Boris Johnson, the ambitious former foreign secretary, had wasted his money getting a “leadership haircut.”

He said: “That’s £7.50 he’ll never get back.”

…Aa one Brexiteer noted, May’s victory “doesn’t change anything”.

But the contest does not change the ultimate dilemma facing Mrs May: she still needs to find a way of winning parliamentary backing for a Brexit deal that she has promised to resubmit to MPs before January 21.

A pro-Brexit minister said: “This doesn’t solve anything. The PM will go to Brussels, get some tweaks to her deal and in mid-January we will be back here again and it will be the same crisis because the House won’t vote for it.”

With May’s status as prime minister secure (for now, at least), readers might be wondering: What happens next?

While nobody can say with any certainty how this might impact negotiations with the EU (and with MPs in the Commons), Bloomberg has published a handy guide reminding us of the key factors at play:

1. What deal did May strike?

It’s the most important international agreement for Britain since the end of World War II. Negotiated over 17 months, the deal sets out the terms of separation that allow the U.K. to depart the EU on March 29 in an orderly fashion, with a 21-month grace period to give everyone time to adjust. Alongside is a political declaration that specifies that the two sides want close economic and trading ties, though the details will take years to work out. As things stand, the U.K. would leave the EU’s single market, and free movement of people would end. EU citizens in Britain before Brexit would be able to stay, and vice versa.

2. Why are British lawmakers balking?

The main objection is to guarantees May has offered the EU to make sure a new physical border doesn’t emerge between Northern Ireland, which is part of the U.K., and the Republic of Ireland, which remains in the EU. Critics say the pledges – which constitute what’s known as the “backstop” – risk binding the U.K. to EU rules forever. They argue that May caved to the EU and betrayed the electorate’s call to regain sovereignty, while treating Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the country. Though May survived a Conservative Party challenge to her leadership on Dec. 12, there’s still opposition on all sides: pro-Brexit hardliners in her party, other Conservatives who are pro-EU, the Northern Irish party that’s been propping up the government and nearly all of the opposition Labour Party.

3. Will the EU offer May a better deal?

She’s visiting Brussels to try to extract what would probably be nothing more than token concessions. There’s a summit on Dec. 13-14 where EU leaders will hear her case, but they have been pretty clear they don’t want to reopen the negotiation.

4. So where does that leave things?

That’s murky. In deferring a planned vote in Parliament on Dec. 10, May said that Jan. 21 is the deadline for putting a tweaked deal to a vote. In the interim, she could announce a host of measures for a no-deal Brexit in an attempt to frighten lawmakers into backing her. (Investors are betting that a deal will be done eventually, possibly after an adverse market reaction.) Or the Cabinet could decide to adopt a new approach to Brexit, in an attempt to win a majority for a deal in the House of Commons. That would almost certainly mean trying to keep closer ties with the bloc. Other scenarios: May’s opponents in Labour could push for a general election, but it’s not clear that would succeed. May could call an election. Or lawmakers could try to trigger a re-run of the June 2016 Brexit referendum. For now, there’s not enough support in Parliament for a second referendum, but that could change.

5. What’s a no-deal Brexit?

There’s a chance that if the deal is voted down, Britain would crash out of the bloc on March 29 with no agreement or grace period. That would leave the U.K. with no legal arrangements to smooth trade and other transactions with its neighbors, snarling cross-border commerce and freezing markets. Bottlenecks could bring shortages of everything from food to drugs and manufacturing components. But the no-deal scenario is probably becoming less likely as Parliament is being increasingly assertive in trying to prevent it.

* * *

Update 2: Conflicting views are emerging as to the number of votes needed for May to declare the overwhelming victory she needs to maintain credibility in her government and hold on to any hope of passing her Brexit plan. Some analysts are saying that anything more than 100 votes of no confidence could be market negative, while others say that any more than 109 votes against – which was the margin from when she was voted in as prime minister – is the magic number.

* * *

Update: While the final results of today’s no confidence vote haven’t been officially released, it looks like somebody has already leaked a preliminary total to the Telegraph.

May reportedly received 176 votes of support, which is a strong showing of support (as RanSquawk noted, that’s a stronger showing of support than she received when she was elected prime minister following the resignation of David Cameron).

Christopher Hope

@christopherhope

. @Telegraph final headcount 176 Tory MPs have declared they support Theresa May, the rest are not known #toryleadership (with thanks @horton_official).

98 people are talking about this

If this result is confirmed, it would suggest that May did indeed strike a deal with the Brexiteer faction of her party to win their support in exchange for promising to step down before the next general election (set for 2022).

But not everybody believes this would be a strong enough vote of support to appease the markets and stop May from stepping down. According to a rumor reported by the BBC, May’s predecessor David Cameron and his team had agreed before the Brexit referendum that, if he did lose, and a no confidence vote was called, he would resign if he received more than 60 votes of no confidence. Cameron, of course, didn’t wait around for a vote to be called.

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

While we wait, whisper reaches me that before referendum Cameron’s team thought there might be a vote of no confidence if he lost – and if there was they’d decided if there were more than 60 votes against him, he’d quit – over to you @CraigOliver100 ?

417 people are talking about this

May is waiting for the final vote total at No. 10. If the final total matches the number leaked to the Telegraph, UK markets should rally as May cannot face another leadership challenge from within the Conservative Party for at least a year. However, her political adversaries across the floor are still plotting to call a no confidence vote in her government, which could force another general election if successful.

Embedded video

BBC Politics

@BBCPolitics

PM Theresa May arrives back in Downing Street waiting for result of confidence vote by Conservative MPs

Latest updates: http://bbc.in/2RXfHry 

303 people are talking about this

The mic has come out at No. 10, suggesting that May will deliver “another podium moment” after the final vote tally is released.

Jessica Elgot

@jessicaelgot

This could be big. It could mean a) she’s won or b) she’s lost

Laura Kuenssberg

@bbclaurak

Mic has gone out in Number 10 for what is likely therefore to be another podium moment for Theresa May after the result

463 people are talking about this

* * *

With her Brexit deal facing almost certain defeat in the Commons, opposition parties threatening to bring down her government and European leaders refusing to reopen negotiations on the withdrawal treaty, Prime Minister Theresa May is heading into Wednesday’s intraparty no confidence vote – which began only moments ago – in a tough position.

She has no obvious path forward that would stave off a ‘no deal’ Brexit (well, aside from hoping that an adverse market reaction and attendant political pressures inspire a change of heart in her MPs) and though she’s expected to survive the vote, the tumultuous Brexit negotiations have hamstrung her government and deadened her political future.

Which is probably why May revealed during a speech at the 1922 Committee meeting held before voting begins at 1 pm that she will not seek another term as prime minister during the next general election in 2022. Her announcement, which confirmed hints from earlier out of No. 10, caused some ministers to weep.

However, analysts said the timing of May’s announcement suggests she has made a back-door deal with Tory MPs to secure their votes in exchange for her stepping aside after the process of Brexit is complete (it’s also an acknowledgement that she wouldn’t be the best candidate to lead the Tories in the next vote after all the Brexit-related sniping has diminished her popularity.

May

As she entered the meeting at around 5 pm London Time (noon in New York), the prime minister was greeted with loud banging – a sign of support. To stay on, May needs to win a simple majority of the 317 Tory MPs eligible to vote in Wednesday’s secret ballot. The consensus view is that May will prevail in Wednesday’s vote (nearly 200 MPs – far more than the 159 vote needed to prevail – have publicly pledged to vote for her). And so far, she’s put on a  After returning from her “whistlestop” tour of the Continent, May came out swinging on Wednesday, saying she’d fight to stay on “with everything I’ve got” before battling with her archrival, Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn, during a contentious session of PMQs.

Here’s the timeline for Wednesday’s vote:

  • 5 p.m. – May addresses a meeting of the 1922 Committee — the name of the caucus of Conservative MPs. The meeting is closed, but from outside, we’ll be able to hear cheering, banging desks and so on. We expect her to promise not to fight the next election
  • 6 p.m. – MPs begin voting. They can vote by proxy, and it’s a secret ballot. So all those public expressions of loyalty may not be worth much
  • 8 p.m. – Voting finishes. Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, begins counting
  • Before 9 p.m. – Brady announces the result

During a round of questions after her statement, May told lawmakers that she’s still working on making the Irish Backstop – the most controversial component of her Brexit deal – more palatable to DUP MPs who have threatened to vote against her bill, and possibly even join Labour in a vote of no confidence in May’s government.

The prime minister’s pitch to MPs is that ditching her now could mean delaying Brexit, or possibly even no Brexit at all.

But while traders are pricing in a May victory as a virtual certainty, there are some subtle signs that an upset could be in the offing (analysts suspect that May could resign if she survives by only a narrow margin). Brexiteers affiliated with the European Research Group (the faction led by Jacob Rees-Mogg) wouldn’t have gone to the trouble of orchestrating the vote if they didn’t feel there was something to be gained from it. According to Telegraph Deputy Political Editor Steven Swinford, that something might be surpassing the 80-vote threshold, which would signal that at least half of Tory MPs who don’t have formal roles in the government are opposed to May’s leadership.

Steven Swinford

@Steven_Swinford

Eurosceptic MPs still think they are on course for a rebellion by at least 80 Tory MPs against the PM, although they admit they are unlikely to win.

They view the 80 figure is significant because it represents half of Tory MPs who aren’t on payroll or in party roles.

FRANCE
France is in a mess now.  The shooter is still at large having been convicted 27 times before.  He yelled “allahu Akbar” while undergoing his shooting rampage.  France is having continual riots coupled with terrorist attacks..good for its GDP
(courtesy zerohedge)

‘Still At Large’ – Strasbourg Shooting Suspect Convicted 27 Times Before, Yelled “Allahu Akbar”

French police have detained five people in connection with Tuesday’s deadly attack on a popular Christmas Market in the French city of Strasbourg – which unfolded only a few blocks away from the European Parliament. However, the shooter, who was reportedly wounded in the attack before commandeering a taxi to make his escape, remains at large, and French authorities worry that he may have fled to neighboring Germany, according to the Financial Times.

Some 350 police and gendarmes are actively searching for the suspect. France has issued an  “urgence attentat” (emergency attack) alert, which temporarily expands police powers and forces officers to maintain “a higher degree of vigilance,” according to the BBC. Police said they had cordoned off areas in the south of the city and tightened border controls. Meanwhile, Paris prosecutors have launched a murder investigation as well as a probe into “attempted murder in relation with a terrorist enterprise.”

The first shots rang out in Strasbourg’s city center at around 8 pm local time (1 pm ET). A French prosecutor said the suspect shouted “Allahu Akbar” – ‘God is great’ in Arabic – during the shooting. 

Stras

The mayor of Strasbourg, Roland Ries, said the Christmas market will be closed on Wednesday and flags lowered to half-mast at the local town hall. The shooting unfolded during a regular session of the European Parliament, which is situated roughly 1.5 miles from the city center where the shooting unfolded.  Some 2,000 MEPs and their staff were ordered to remain inside the building for hours.

European Parliament President Antonio Tajani declared the assembly would not “be intimidated by terrorist or criminal attack.” “Let us move on. We will continue to work and react strengthened by freedom and democracy against terrorist violence.”

Stras

Little information about the suspected gunman has been released. Still, an unconfirmed photo of what’s believed to be the attacker has circulated on social media.

The most recent casualty count put the death toll at three, while 13 people were wounded, eight of them seriously, according to the BBC (though it’s worth noting that the body count varied between media outlets).

Here’s a brief rundown of what we know about the attacker (text courtesy of RT and the Guardian):

  • The suspect, Cherif Chekatt, 29, was born and raised in Strasbourg
  • His activities within the local radical Islamic community raised red flags and he had been added to a terror watch list
  • He was known as a potential security risk
  • The 29-year-old was sent to jail by a court in the German town of Singen for a violent robbery in Germany. After serving the sentence, Chekatt, a French national with North African roots, was deported back to France in 2017
  • He has also spent time in prison in France and is believed to have been radicalized in prison. He has been described as “notorious” to police, with a long criminal record
  • All told, the public prosecutor said the suspect has been convicted 27 times in France, Germany and Switzerland
  • Police had intended to arrest Chekatt in connection with an armed robbery hours before he allegedly opened fire on the Christmas market – but he was nowhere to be found when they raided his home. Police did, however, discover a grenade
  • Investigators are still working to establish a motive in the attack
  • The suspect fired three separate volleys into the crowds at the Christmas market then engaged twice with patrolling soldiers from Opération Sentinelle, a nationwide security operation established after a series of terrorist attacks in Paris in 2015

The Strasbourg attacked unfolded during a period of tension when France is still struggling with violent demonstrations against the government of Emmanuel Macron. It was also the latest in a string of terror attacks in France and neighboring countries, including a 2016 assault on a Christmas market in Berlin.

Finally, and for good measure, President Trump saw fit to chime in on the wall…

 

end
Italy
What a bunch of crap: the story below is false…the Italian PM does not confirm the 2% deficit. With France going for a 3.5% deficit there is no way that Italy should give in.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Italian Yields Tumble Below 3% As Populists Cave On Deficit Target

Update: Just as we anticipated, the Italian government has denied reports that it caved on the budget deficit. The euro and Italian stocks are fading on the headline, while BTP yields have reversed some of their earlier drop.

  • ITALY PM OFFICE DOES NOT CONFIRM 2% DEFICIT TARGET: OFFICIAL

* * *

After insisting that they wouldn’t lower their projected budget deficit past 2.1%, Italy’s populists have reportedly ceded even more ground to the EU according to reports that they are preparing to submit a revised budget proposal featuring a 2% deficit target, putting it in line with a number that EU officials have said they might be willing to accept.

The headlines triggered a torrid rally in the euro and Italian bonds, causing the spread between 10-year BTPs and bunds to collapse as the BTP yield broke below 3% for the first time since September (which puts the 10-year BTP yield below the 10-year Treasury). In recent trade, the 10-year yield was down 13bps to 2.99%, while the two-year dropped 19bps to 0.47%.

BTP

The euro shot to session highs on the news.

EURUSD

EURUSD

Meanwhile, Italy’s FTSE MIB climbed 1.7%, lead by with UniCredit and Intesa, up 3%, and other bank stocks.

Italy’s latest concession follows French President Emmanuel Macron’s announcement that he would impose a round of fiscal stimulus of his own that could blow out the French budget deficit past the 3% red line mandated by EU rules. Many analysts said they expected this to give Italy more leverage in negotiations with the EU.

“It will be difficult for the EU to really go hard at Italy next year” with France also breaking fiscal rules, said Jens Peter Sorensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank. “Italy has been bought a few extra years.”

Which begs the question: Why now? If previous headlines about the negotiations have taught us anything, we’ll keep an eye out for the inevitable denial..

 

end.

GERMANY

this will not help as both of these banking entities are in trouble

(courtesy zerohedge)

Germany Accelerates Plans For Deutsche Bank-Commerzbank Megamerger

It seems the accelerating similarities between Deutsche Bank (once the most systemically dangerous bank in the world) and Lehman Brothers has finally forced the German government’s hand…

The German finance ministry’s oft-reported plans to merge struggling Deutsche Bank with its not-all-that-much-better-off domestic rival Commerzbank have elicited a flood of criticism in the financial press (including an editorial in the Financial Times) following another round of rumor-mongering last week.

But apparently this hasn’t dented the German government’s enthusiasm for orchestrating a merger between two of the country’s largest banks. To wit, the government’s plans to help guide the two toward a merger are intensifying, according to a Bloomberg report, as officials study ways to facilitate a merger – including potential changes to the tax code to make a merger less costly. Still, BBG cautioned that the talks remain in an “exploratory phase.”

Shares of both banks rallied on the news…

DB

…while the euro climbed to fresh session highs.

DB’s CEO Christian Sewing has repeatedly insisted that a merger isn’t in the cards, but as more legal problems are cropping up, which recently pushed the bank’s shares to record lows, his options for a better alternative are dwindling. Tellingly, both Deutsche Bank and the German Finance Ministry have refused to comment on the report.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN

AFFAIRS

IRAN/USA/GLOBE

Iran confirms that it tested a new ballistic missile capable of hitting most of Europe and all of the Middle East.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Iran Confirms Pompeo’s Charge Of Testing New Ballistic Missile “Capable Of Hitting Europe”

Iranian media has quoted a senior Revolutionary Guards commander on Tuesday as confirming Iran had recently carried out a ballistic missile test, which is the first time the country has owned up to allegations made by US officials previously this month.

The confirmation appeared in the semi-official Fars News Agency and is the first time Iran affirmed charges made by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who earlier this month said Iran had test-fired “a medium range ballistic missile that is capable of carrying multiple warheads.” Pompeo made the charge on December 1st while calling on Iran “to cease immediately all activities relating to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons.”

Iranian Army photo showing a Sayyad missile fired during an air defense drill in an undisclosed location in Iran on November 5, 2018. Image source Press TV/AFP

The “senior IRGC commander” did not specify precisely what type of missile had been tested, nor the range or capabilities. Though Pompeo’s identifying it as a “medium-range” missile means it would be capable of hitting southeastern EU states, according to recent reports.

Despite US condemnation, Iranian leaders have remained defiant after the US pullout of the 2015 JCPOA last May. Brigadier General Amirali Hajizadeh, head of the Revolutionary Guards’ airspace division, told Iranian media“We will continue our missile tests and this recent action was particularly significant.” And he added: “The reaction of the Americans shows that this test was very important for them and that’s why they were shouting.”

The IRGC airspace division commander further said Iran carries out out up to 50 missile tests a year, and that it would continue to doing so; however, he denied pursuing nuclear-capable missiles and described the program as “defensive” in nature.

Department of State

@StateDept

.@SecPompeo: Iranian regime just test-fired a medium range ballistic missile capable of striking Europe & the Middle East. This violates Res. 2231. ’s missile testing & proliferation is growing. We are accumulating risk of escalation if we fail to restore deterrence.

,

But the State Department previously described that Iranian “missile testing and proliferation is growing” and its arsenal contains missiles “capable of hitting Europe”.

The same commander last month touted Iran’s missile program as capable of striking US and allied bases throughout the region. In late November, just prior to the latest ballistic missile test, Hajizadeh, identified American bases in Afghanistan, the UAE, Qatar, as well as U.S. aircraft carriers in the Gulf as all within range of Iranian ballistic missiles.

He said at the time:

They are within our reach, and we can hit them if they make a move… Our land-to-sea missiles have a range of 700 kilometers [450 miles]… and the US aircraft carriers are our targets.”

And previously in October the IRGC fired multiple missiles at ISIS camps located in Eastern Syria in retaliation for an attack at a military parade in Iran that killed 25 people, among them IRGC personnel. Though it’s not known how many missiles hit their target, it was confirmed that many failed over the Iran-Iraq border and over Iraqi airspace.

Notably, the general targeted area was not far from where US-backed forces in Syria are stationed, though a number of analysts said Iran’s strikes were ineffective.

end

Turkey

Turkey is not finished yet in Syria as it wants to launch a new military operation in the next few days supposedly to knock off separatists “terrorists” i.e. the YPG.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Lira Tumbles After Erdogan Says Turkey Will Launch New Military Operation In Syria “In Days”

The Turkish Lira tumbled to session lows after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that Turkey will start a new military operation in Syria east of the Euphrates river in northern Syria in a “few days”. “It is time to realize our decision to wipe out terror groups east of the Euphrates,” Erdogan said in a speech at the Turkish Defense Industry Summit held at the presidential complex in Ankara on Dec. 12.

“We will start the operation in east of the Euphrates in a few days to save it from the separatist terrorist organization,” Erdoğan added, referring to the YPG. “Turkey’s target is never the U.S. soldiers, but rather the members of the terror group.”

Turkey has repeatedly threatened to attack Kurdish militants in the region, who are backed by the U.S. but viewed by Turkey as an extension of a terrorist organization, the PKK.

The Pentagon had announced on Dec. 11 that American observation posts in northern Syria, meant to prevent altercations between the Turkish army and US-supported YPG, have been erected, despite Ankara’s request to scrap the move. The Turkish army since 2016 has already launched two military operations in Syria, the last of which saw Ankara-backed Syrian rebels take the border city of Afrin from the YPG in March.

the United States has long been complained that tensions between Turkey and the SDF, of which the YPG is the backbone, have at times slowed down progress on fighting the ISIL.

In the same speech, Erdoğan also slammed the new US plan for ‘protecting terrorists, not Turkey.’

“There is no Daesh threat in Syria any longer,” Erdoğan said  accusing the U.S. of “delaying tactics” regarding its promise to clear the northeastern Syrian town of Manbij from YPG members.

“It is clear that the purpose of U.S. observation points in Syria is not to protect our country from terrorists but protect terrorists from Turkey,” he noted.

Turkey has also been skeptical about a U.S. plan to train around 40,000 locals in northeastern Syria:“We do not see them as well-intentioned approaches,” the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) spokesman Ömer Çelik said Dec. 11, referring to the reported U.S. plan. He added that the move will be seen by Turkey as “lending fresh support to terror elements in Syria.”

U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford had said on Dec. 7 that the U.S. needs to train and equip around 40,000 local fighters to “provide stability” in Syria.

Erdogan’s words promptly sent the Turkish lira sliding 0.40% lower, making it today’s worst performing EM currency, and sending it to one week lows amid fears the recent improvement in relations between Turkey and the US will be reversed as Erdogan takes another round of unilateral action.

 

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

CANADA

The following is quite amazing as it indicates the extent of the global slowdown.  Canadian personal bankruptcies surged dramatically in October.  When you compare year over year:  9.2% rise as insolvencies climbed to 11,641.  However on a sequential month over month: in inexplicable 16%…something broke in  Canada..Remember Canada has the highest household debt to GDP in the developed world.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Canadian Personal Bankruptcies Are Surging At Breakneck Speeds

The shock of rising interest rates isn’t just affecting the macro picture and grinding the US economy to a halt, but it is also having profound effects globally. In Canada, personal bankruptcies are on the rise as household debt lingers at, or above, all time highs and interest rates force the cost of servicing this debt even higher.

According to data from the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada, insolvencies climbed to 11,641 in October, a 9.2% rise compared to the year prior. Even more alarming, month over month this rise was up a staggering and somewhat inexplicable 16%, as if something “broke”, pardon the pun, in October.

Bankruptcies increased 1.2% year-over-year and an astounding 13.5% on a month over month basis. Bankruptcy proposals increased 15.8% year-over-year and an even more dramatic 18.6% sequential increase.

These year-over-year numbers are alarming but the sequential rate at which these proposals and bankruptcies are rising make it clear that even the smallest uptick in interest rates is having an immediate and dire effect.

In Canada, annual increases were the highest in British Columbia and Prince Edward Island but there were also double digit gains in provinces like New Brunswick.

Rates in Canada are only still at 1.75% and the Bank of Canada said as recently as last Thursday that they are targeting a neutral rate “somewhere around 2.5% and 3.5%” – a tightening process which is certain to keep the insolvency and bankruptcy trend accelerating.

Chantal Gingras, chair of the Canadian Association of Insolvency and Restructuring Professionals recently stated: “High consumer debt levels and rising interest rates have been a growing concern over the last few years and we are now starting to see this reflected in the number of insolvent Canadians filing bankruptcies or proposals.”

“Canada is in serious trouble”, we wrote back in April 2018, when we pointed out that the country’s over-reliance on its frothy, bubbly housing sector and the fact that the average Canadian household had failed to reduce its debt load would eventually come back to bite.

We look forward to the country continuing to prove us right.

end

 

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

Venezuela

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1363 UP .0041 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 113.35  DOWN 0.026 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2598 UP   0.0102  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3366  DOWN .0018 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 41 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1363/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 8.06 POINTS OR 0.31%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 415.04 POINTS OR 1.61%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  1.35% /EUROPEAN BOURSES DEEPLY IN THE GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED  UP 454.73 POINTS OR 2.15%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 415.04 POINTS OR 1.61% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.06  POINTS OR 0.31%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP  1/35%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 454.73 POINTS OR 2.15%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1245.65

silver:$14.66

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.89% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.14 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 97.26 DOWN 13  CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.72% DOWN43    in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.06%  UP 1  BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.43% DOWN 1  IN basis point yield from TUESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.00 DOWN 12     POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 157 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.28%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.72% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1361 UP  .0039 or 39 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 113.25 DOWN  0 .123 OR 12 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2658 UP .01644( POUND UP 164  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 37 basis points to 1.3342

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.8800-  ON SHORE  (YUAN UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8762(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.3552

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.06%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 4 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.90 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.14 UP 3 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.05 DOWN 33 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 73.25 POINTS OR 1.08%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 148.92 POINTS  OR 1.38%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 103.25 POINTS OR 2.15%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 117.90 POINTS OR 1.35%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP: 354.79 POINTS OR 1.91%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 52.30 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 60.54 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    66.38  THE CROSS HIGHER BY .07 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 7 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.3556 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.28 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :51.18

 

BRENT:60.20

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.91%..

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.15%/.

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1364 ( UP 42 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:113.20 DOWN 0.112 (YEN UP 11 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.11 D0WN 28 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2612 UP 121 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.355

the Russian rouble:  66.47 DOWN .02 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3365 UP 13 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8800  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.8705 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.28%

 

The Dow closed  UP 157.03 POINTS OR 0.64%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 66.44 POINTS OR 0.95%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  21.48 CLOSED DOWN 0.28 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.779%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/SMALL RISE TODAY

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Stocks Pump’n’Dump As Trump Hush-Money Headlines Spoil Trade-War-Win Gains

Stocks ended higher but well off the highs as an apparently massive concession from China (shifting its Vision 2025 plan) in the trade war and another win for Trump with huge soybean purchases from China, were hurt by Cohen, and The National Enquirer disclosures.

 

s

 

 

Chinese stocks were unable to hold on to Tuesday’s gain overnight and remain in the red on the week…

 

Europe is fixed apparently (conveniently timed ahead of ECB) as Italy folded on its budget battle with Brussels…

 

Which sent Italian yields back below 3.00%…

 

In the US, markets pumped and dumped again, exuberant at China headlines then – having run the high stops from yesterday – tumbling after Trump hush-money headlines hit…Pumps at China Open, EU Open, and US Open, and dump on Trump

 

On the cash side, stocks ended green but it sure didn’t feel good…

All US Majors closed below their open at the lows…

 

Markets are extremely technical right now…

 

US Markets started strong and accelerated as yet another “massive short squeeze” sparked buying in the megatech stocks to lift all major markets…

 

Banks managed gains on the day (breaking a 5 day losing streak)- but almost gave it all back…

 

Treasury Yields were higher across the complex today, pushing 30Y yields just positive on the week…

 

10Y Yields are back to the Bush funeral close levels…

 

The Dollar Index slipped lower today, back to pre-payrolls levels…

 

As the Yuan rallied notably…

 

The Mexican Peso rallied up to 20/USD and failed once again…

 

And Cable sold off after the May confidence vote after rallying hard all day…

 

Ugly end to the day in crude (Iran) but silver soared as the dollar faded…

 

WTI slipped back to a $50 handle after inventory data and Iran OPEC chatters spoiled the overnight gains…

 

Silver surged to 6-week highs (outperforming gold)…

 

Silver outperformed Gold – back below the key 85x ratio…

 

Finally, we note that Dec rate-hike odds dropped very marginally today to 72%…

And one thing has changed for sure…

 

END

market trading

Afternoon trading:  again stocks and oil giving up their gains

“It’s Happening Again” – Stocks & Oil Are Giving Up Gains Fast

What goes up must come down in this new normal market as one veteran trader said “it’s happening again” as early trends are almost instantly inverted and “those fucking machines” run the market the other way.

The move seems very technical in nature with the machines tagging yesterday’s high stops and fading (similar to how yesterday’s drop found Friday’s lows and quickly kneejerked higher)…

The timing of the stocks slide also coincided with the story about The National Enquirer paying Trump’s (alleged) hush money.

Additionally Oil prices tumbled after the Iran oil minister questioned the stability of OPEC’s unity…“serious political disagreements exist within OPEC” and the OPEC meeting “involved lots of arguments”

Bond yields are dropping as stocks tumble.

 

 

 

 

 

market data/

Inflation is the weakest in a year and this follows the PPI data from yesterday.  Consumer price growth slowed notably form 2.5% down to 2.2%,..however goods prices are rising the fastest in 5 years

(courtesy zerohedge)

Consumer Price Inflation Weakest Since January But Goods Prices Rise Fastest In 5 Years

Following yesterday’s plunge in producer price inflation, consumer price growth also slowed notably from +2.5% YoY to +2.2% YoY – the lowest since Jan 2018.

 

Under the covers, the most notable aspect was the energy index increased 3.1% YoY; this was its smallest 12-month increase since the period ending June 2017.   

The used cars and trucks index increased 2.4 percent in November. The medical care index rose 0.4 percent in November with its component indexes mixed. The hospital services index rose 0.5 percent in November, its first increase since July, and the index for prescription drugs also increased 0.5 percent. The index for physicians’ services, in contrast, declined 0.3 percent.

Interestingly, Core CPI Goods prices rose at their fastest rate since Feb 2013 (admittedly at a lowly +0.2% YoY)

Additionally, the shelter index increased 0.3 percent in November following 0.2-percent increases in October and September. The rent index rose 0.4 percent and the index for owners’ equivalent rent increased 0.3 percent.

Yet more cover for Powell next week – but will he still hike?

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

Michael Snyder comments that we are approaching the 22 trillion dollar mark in national debt as another financila crisis will be upon us.

(Michael Snyder)

US Debt Nears $22 Trillion Mark As “Storm Clouds” Indicate “Another Financial Crisis” Looms

A good measure to indicate that the USA economy and especially the real estate sector is coming to a screeching halt
(courtesy zerohedge)

“Canary In The Coal Mine”: House Flipping Returns Crash To Six-Year Low

Real-estate speculation has long been a characteristic of booming housing markets, and in this current cycle of artificially suppressed rates, investors have been furiously flipping homes which peaked in the first few months of 2018. The number of companies flipping houses also hit a decade high, as HGTV programming and house flipping seminars across the country suckered in the broad base of the American people.

Now the house flipping industry has gone bust, and many investors are left holding the bag. Flipping dropped for the third consecutive quarter, due to mortgage rate increases, according to Attom Data Solutions. At the same time, the average return on investment crashed to a six-year low.

“A total of 45,901 single-family homes and condos were flipped in 3Q18, signaling a 12% drop from a year ago to a 3.5-year low from the first quarter of 2015. Houses flipped sold for an average of $63,000 more than what the home flipper purchased them for, down from the all-time high of $68,000 achieved in the first quarter and from $65,000 a year ago,” said Attom Data Solutions.

The gross flipping profit in 3Q18 was about 42.6% ROI, the lowest level seen since the first quarter of 2012. Despite the recent market plateau, some flippers are finding it unprofitable in the current market environment.

With home price appreciation stalling, many flippers have started to notice margin compression and to make matters worse, President Trump’s tariffs have made the cost of materials just that more expensive.

The amount of flipped homes purchased with financing held steady at 38.8% in the third quarter, down from 39.2% a year ago and 40.7% the previous quarter.

“Home flipping acts as a canary in the coal mine for a cooling housing market because the high velocity of transactions provides home flippers with some of the best and most real-time data on how the market is trending,” Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at Attom, said in a press release.

We’ve now seen three consecutive quarters with year-over-year decreases in home flips. The last time that happened was in 2014 following the mortgage rate jump in the second half of 2013, but it’s still far from the 11 consecutive quarters with year-over-year decreases in home flips extending from 2Q 2006 through 4Q 2008 and leading up to the last housing crash,” he said.

The total houses flipped in the third quarter represented 5% of all single-family homes and condos sold in the quarter – the lowest reading in more than two years. The flipping rate declined from 5.1% a year ago and 5.2% from the previous quarter.

It seems the popularity of “how to flip a house” in Google Search across the US peaked in 2017 and has since stalled.

 

SWAMP STORIES

We now have 3 Clinton foundation whistleblowers ready to testify against the Clintons in a suspected tax fraud and a pay for play scheme

(courtesy zerohedge)

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
AND SPECIAL THANKS TO CHRIS POWELL OF GATA FOR SENDING THIS TO US:
Yellen warns of another potential financial crisis: ‘Gigantic holes in the system’
  • The former Fed chair cites leverage loans as an area of concern and says there remains an agenda of unfinished regulation.
  • She also says rates will remain lower than they have been in past decades.
 
@IngrahamAngleL Now Yellen’s Yellin’? “7yrs of zero rates, w/ the feds purchase of $4T in bonds…and now she’s worriedas Trump is left to clean up her mess?! “Yellen warns of… potential financial crisis”
 @IngrahamAngleL Now Yellen’s Yellin’? “7yrs of zero rates, w/ the feds purchase of $4T in bonds…and now she’s worriedas Trump is left to clean up her mess?! “Yellen warns of… potential financial crisis”
Trump says he would intervene in U.S. case against Huawei CFO if it would serve national security interests or help close a trade deal with China   https://reut.rs/2RSQAGe
@realDonaldTrump: James Comey just totally exposed his partisan stance by urging his fellow Democrats to take back the White House in 2020. In other words, he is and has been a Democrat. Comey had no right heading the FBI at any time, but especially after his mind exploded!
 
Senate Republicans Hatch, Grassley and Kennedy push back at significance of Mueller and SDNY sentencing memos – Utah’s Orrin Hatch: ‘You know, you can make anything a crime under the current laws’          https://www.marketwatch.com/story/senate-republicans-hatch-grassley-and-kennedy-push-back-at-significance-of-mueller-and-sdny-sentencing-memos-2018-12-11
 
DC judge tells prosecutors in the Paul Manafort case to provide more evidence supporting their claims he lied in his cooperation agreement in Russia probe.   https://abcn.ws/2RTwNGD
 
John Solomon: Did Clinton Foundation mislead IRS? State filings raise the question
There is “probable cause” to believe the Clinton Foundation broke federal tax law and possibly owes millions of dollars in tax penalties. That submission and its supporting evidence will be one focus of a GOP-led congressional hearing Thursday in the House…
 
Nate Cain @cain_nate: So I blow the whistle on the FBI, get raided by the same FBI, and now they want to keep the FBI’s reasons secret? Do we now live in a secret police state? Feels a little like 1984
 
DOJ Wants to Keep Justification for Raiding Reported Clinton Foundation Whistleblower Secret
The documents Cain possessed reportedly showed that federal officials failed to investigate potential criminal activity regarding former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the Clinton Foundation, and the Russian company that purchased Uranium One…
 
@zerohedge: 54% of French Want End of Yellow Vests Protests
66% support the country’s yellow-vest movement: LCI poll
 
Suspect in Strasbourg Shooting Identified, Was on ‘Terror Watch List’
 
Pat Buchanan: Who Lost the World Bush 41 Left Behind?
George H.W. Bush was America’s closer.  Called in to pitch the final innings of the Cold War, Bush 41 presided masterfully over the fall of the Berlin Wall, the unification of Germany, the liberation of 100 million Eastern Europeans and the dissolution of the Soviet Union into 15 independent nations…
     Was not Vladimir Putin an inevitable reaction to our treating Russia like an untrustworthy and dangerous recidivist, by our expansion of NATO into the Balkans, the eastern Baltic and the Black Sea?…
    We welcomed China as the prodigal son. We threw open our markets to Chinese goods, escorted her into the WTO, smiled approvingly as U.S. companies shifted production there.
    Beijing reciprocated — by manipulating her currency, running up hundreds of billions of dollars in trade surpluses with us, and thieving our technology when she could not extort it from our industries in China. Beijing even sent student spies into American universities…
 
WaPo: Jamal Khashoggi was caught in a Saudi cyberwar. The killer’s motive was control of information, columnist David Ignatius reports.
Last July, according to a U.S. official, Qahtani had convinced MBS that Khashoggi was a threat to the kingdom’s attempts to control information, and the crown prince sent a message that month ordering that the renegade journalist be brought back to the kingdom, by force if necessary…
 
Not knowing anything is the sweetest life.” — Sophocles
end
Let us close out tonight with this great interview of Egon Von Greyerz and Greg Hunter
(courtesy Greg Hunter/Egon Von Greyerz)

Trend is Clear – Rapid Decline of World Economy – Egon von Greyerz

By Greg Hunter On December 12, 2018 In Market Analysis

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Financial and precious metals expert Egon von Greyerz (EvG) says don’t expect the global financial situation to get better anytime soon. EvG says, “You know what the politicians are doing now? Theresa May is my best example. These politicians are just running around posing and acting, but they are not achieving anything, and they are not achieving anything because the world is in a mess. What we are seeing the beginning of is the decline of the western world economy, which means the whole world economy. . . . There is no use in putting a time period on it, that it’s going to happen this year or next year. The trend is clear. We know that the world economy is in a mess. It’s going to decline, and in my view, it’s going to be a rapid decline.. . . Gold will reflect all of this, and currencies will be totally debased. . . . You don’t need a lot, you might only need another few snowflakes to trigger this avalanche. It could come in a month or in three months time because the system is a fake system. . . . I count $2 quadrillion in money. If you add debt, unfunded liabilities and the risk of derivatives, you come up to $2 quadrillion of debt and liabilities. The global GDP is $70 trillion. . . . So, you are talking about 30 times global GDP.”

What could go wrong? EvG says, “You don’t need much to go wrong. It will happen. They have no remedy anymore. 2007 to 2009, I have said many times that was a rehearsal. The real thing is coming now or in the next few years, and no money printing will ever stop it. They will try, but they will fail. This is why you will get the depressionary hyperinflation, and when that fails you get the implosion of the system. All values will shrink to very low numbers, all assets and debts will shrink together. That is the longer term play. It’s not going to be nice for the world. It’s going to be horrible for the world.”

In closing, EvG says, “Because of the artificial control of the system, the cycles becomes ten times or a hundred times bigger than they would have been by natural forces. We have had a hundred years of excesses in the world and artificial wealth creation. Now, in the coming years, we will have a very long period of the opposite. Wealth will disappear. A lot of people will suffer, and, sadly, there will be famine. There will be misery. The world has gone through this before, but this will be bigger than it ever has been. The world will survive this, but there will be a lot of suffering when this implodes. . . . The fear hasn’t started yet, but it will, and then there will be a rush into gold and silver. Our clients are increasing their positions. . . . In my view, 25% of total net worth is the minimum (to invest in gold and silver), and, personally, I would not have any major assets in the bank because I don’t think the banking system will survive. If it survives, it will not be in its present form. Stocks, in relation to gold, will go down 90% to 95%. They went down 90% in 1929 to 1932. . . . There will be the most massive wealth destruction ever.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Egon von Greyerz of GoldSwitzerland.com.

Video Link

https://usawatchdog.com/trend-is-clear-rapid-decline- of-world-economy-egon-von-greyerz/

-END-

I WILL YOU ON THURSDAY
H

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: