DEC 17/DOW DROPS ANOTHER 500 POINTS WITH THE NASDAQ DOWN 156 POINTS/GOLD RISES BY $10.60 TO $1248.00/SILVER UP ANOTHER 13 CENTS/CHINA REPORTS UGLY NUMBERS FROM RETAILS SALES AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION/TURMOIL IN FRANCE, BELGIUM, THE NETHERLANDS, ISRAEL AND CANADA AS YELLOW VEST REVOLTS HAVE CONTAGION TO OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD/GOLDMAN SACHS CHARGED CRIMINALLY BY MALAYSIAN GOVERNMENT AND MANY EXPECT THE USA TO FOLLOW SUIT/AMBROSE PRITCHARD EVANS…A MUST READ//HUGE NUMBER OF SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

 

GOLD: $1248.00 UP $10.60 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.69 UP 13 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1246.00

 

silver: $14.64

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

DEC

Again, we have Goldman Sachs dealer and JPMorgan customer account stopping (receiving the gold) 9/12 contracts.

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2018 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,237.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/14/2018 DELIVERY DATE: 12/18/2018
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 7
661 C JP MORGAN 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 12 3
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 12 12
MONTH TO DATE: 7,273

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 12 NOTICE(S) FOR 1200 OZ (0.037 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  7273 NOTICES FOR 727300 OZ  (22.622 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR DECEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  nil  OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 3899 for 19,495,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $3367:  up 152

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3521  up 299.00 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY SIZED 872 CONTRACTS FROM 175,076 DOWN TO 173,574 DESPITE FRIDAY’S CONSIDERABLE 21 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 20 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

1919 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND 0 FOR MARCH AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1919 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1919 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1919 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 9.595 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 21 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND

NOW 20.730 INITIALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC: 19,723 CONTRACTS (FOR 11 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 19,723 CONTRACTS) OR 98.62 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1793 CONTRACTS OR 8.966 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC:  98.62 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 14.08% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,775.68    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR NOVEMBER /2018:                                 247.18         MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 872 DESPITE THE  CONSIDERABLE 21 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //FRIDAY.. AS THE BOYS CONTINUE WITH THEIR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OVER TO  ETFS AT THE START OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1919 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A FAIR SIZED: 1047 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 1919 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 872 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 21 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.56 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .875 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 125% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./AND NOW DEC. AT 20.900 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 3049 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 397,688 WITH THE FALL IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A LOSS IN PRICE OF $5.60//.FRIDAY’S TRADING) 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG  SIZED 10,219 CONTRACTS:

 

DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 10,219 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 397,688. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7170 CONTRACTS:  3049 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 10,219 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 7170 CONTRACTS OR 717,000 OZ = 22.30 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $5.60???

 

 

 

 

FRIDAY, WE HAD 9668 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 95.966 CONTRACTS OR 9,596,600 OZ OR 298.49 TONNES (11 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8724 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 298.49 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 298.49/2550 x 100% TONNES = 11.70% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     7069.46  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR NOV 2018:                        552.88 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3049 WITH THE LOSS  IN PRICING ($5.60THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK FRIDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 10,219 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 10,219 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN STRONG GAIN OF 7170 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

10,219 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 3049 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 22.30 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE LOSS OF $5.60 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX??

 

 

we had: 12 notice(s) filed upon for 1200 oz of gold at the comex.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $10.60 TODAY

 

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   763.56 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 763.56 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS  TODAY:

 

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

i) a withdrawal of 939,000 oz with silver rising?

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 872 CONTRACTS from 174,446 DOWN TO 173,574  AND MOVING FURTHER FROM  THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

1919 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1919 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 872 CONTRACTS TO THE 1919 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD GAIN  OF 1047 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5.235 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. AND NOW 20.900 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 21 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 1919 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.23 POINTS OR 0.06% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 6.81 POINTS OR 0.03% //The Nikkei closed UP 132.85 OR 0.62%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.95%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8971 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 51.76 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.08 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8966AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8971: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

i

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)We reported to you last week, the ugly numbers that China reported on retail sales and industrial production..probably their most important figures.  Jeffrey Snider reports on those figures and what it means….Is the lack of  USA dollars in China going to create a crisis…he believes so

a must read..

(courtesy Jeffrey Snider)

ii)Don’t you feel sorry for us Canadians:  Canada helped its neighbour in arresting Meng and now they are in a heap of trouble with China.  Canada and China have had strong relations since 1949 (Norman Bethune, a Canadian helped China win their independence)  Now China is preparing for an escalation of conflict with Canada.

(courtesy zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)FRANCE

France in turmoil over the weekend as pepper spray was used on protesting yellow vests.  Also bare breasted Mariannes began to face off with the French police

(courtesy zerohedge)

b)Macron admits that he made mistakes:  mainly not listening to his people…the movement now spreads to Israel,Belgium,  Canada and the Netherlands

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)UK

i)May’s cabinet secretly are talking about a ‘second referendum” which would not be good. However the UK just does not know what to do next

( zerohedge)

ii)The vote is now set for Jan 14.2019 and it will be either yes or no.  Then the fun begins

( zerohedge)

iii)Belgium
And now we have riots in Belgium..as they are all rioting against higher taxation and anti migration.
( zerohedge)

iv)Daniel Lacalle states that the ECB’s problem has never been a lack of stimulus..but an excess of stimuli.He outlines why!

( Daniel Lacalle)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

 

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

MALAYSIA/GOLDMAN SACHS

This could be far reaching:  Malaysia files a criminal fraud charge against USA Goldman Sachs and this may be followed by the uSA

(courtesy zerohedge)_

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

i)Venezuela

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Brandon White shows us that the USA Government will be less able to hide gold intervention
( Brandon White BMG/GATA)

ii)As expected, here comes the class action lawsuits against JPMorgan for rigging gold and silver.  I believe it is a touch to early.  What JPMorgan’s chief trader admitted to was only 1% of the fraud

( Giel/CNBC/GATA)

iii)Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
( zerohedge/Chris Powell)

iv)A good history lesson of an early attempt at standardizing money using international gold coins failed.( JP Konig/Bullionstar/GATA)

v)Your most important commentary of the day.  For over 18 years I have been pounding the table on the dangers of derivatives and it seems that this danger is coming to fruition.  Last month a small sector had trouble clearing a trade of just over 100 million dollars. The leveraged bond market has basically busted as there were no takers for a trade and the banks were obliged to put this junk on their books.  The big problem is what he highlighted to you on Friday, the huge BBB- bonds trading  (3/4 of a trillion dollars) and if they are downgraded one step to junk, the game is over….

a must must read..

( Ambrose Evans Pritchard)

vi)They are perfectly correct:  there is a lack of liquidity, stock markets collapse.

another must read..

( Jain/Times of India/GATA)

vii)Von Greyerz at Kingworld news highlights correctly the collapse of the European bank stock index and he warns that there will be an imminent crash of the European banking system and then a stock market crash.

(Kingworld news/ Von Greyerz/GATA)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

the “king” has spoken.  Bond King Jeffrey Gundlach spooks the markets

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

ii)Market data/

a)Even soft data is now coming in at horrifying levels.  Today the all important Empire mfg index   (New York mfg) plunges to almost 2 year lows

( zerohedge)

b)this is a very important data point:  homebuilder optimism collapses by monstrous amount. Just take a look at the devastation.
And remember that house building is a major component of GDP
(courtesy zerohedge)

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Friday night, a judge in Texas ruled that Obamacare is unconstitutional after Trump eliminates the individual mandate.  No doubt that this will  be appealed right to the Supreme Court.  Trump is elated.

( zerohedge)

b)More and more important people are calling for the Fed to stop tightening in a bad economic environment. Today it is Stanley Druckenmiller and most important former Fed governor Kevin Warsh

( zerohedge)

b  ii)  Trump again slams the Fed on the eve of a rate decision.  He correctly states that the Fed hiking is causing the “world to blow up”!!

(courtesy zerohedge)

c)Despite earning over 8% on many of the state pension funds and an eight billion dollar contribution, the shortfall overall worsened to $134 billion dollars.  The Illinois pension system is totally bust:(Dabroski/Klingner/Wirepoints.com)

d)Graham Summers gives a short but powerful message to us all;  the everything bubble has burst. Banks are pulling deals because nobody out there can buy the junk.  The leveraged loan market has officially gone bust and over the weekend we learned that a major part of the bond market was frozen out..it could not be price!!

(courtesy zerohedge)

e)And now the high yield bond market has frozen; no bids.

( zerohedge)

f)We have highlighted each of the following credit problems to you in the past two months…Mish has put it together nicely.

I must read…
( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)
g)The likely shutdown of Government: Dec 21

( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Judge Emmett Sullivan will not be happy with this.  The FBI disobeys the Judge and hands over a 302 summary of the Flynn interview 6 months after the original 302 was written up

stay tuned on this one…

(courtesy zerohedge)

b)It looks like there is going to be a government shutdown as Trump is digging in; he wants his wall!
( zerohedge)

c)It looks like there is going to be a government shutdown as Trump is digging in; he wants his wall!

( zerohedge)

d)This is interesting (and never told to the public at large), the FBI and the CIA told the Washington Post’s Miller that they doubted key allegations in the Steele dossier( zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 3049 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level 397,688 WITH THE LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($5.60) IN FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 10,219 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR DECEMBER:  10,219 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  10,219 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  7170 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 10,219 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 3049 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7170 contracts OR 717,000 OZ OR 22.30 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of December and we now have a total of 418 contracts stand in December so we had a loss of 66 contracts.  We had 53 notices served yesterday, so we lost  13 contracts or 1300 oz will not stand as these guys morphed into London based forwards and as well as accepting a fiat bonus.

 

 

The next delivery month after December is January which saw it FALL TO 2596 FOR A LOSS OF 121 CONTRACTS.  February LOST A CONSIDERABLE 3247 contracts to stand at 293,438 contracts

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1/2017: 37.035 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

EVENTUALLY BY DEC 31.2017:  28.592 TONNES STOOD AND THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

 

 

 

WE HAD 12 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 1200 OZ. (0.037 tonnes)

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI fell BY 87CONTRACTS FROM 174,446 DOWN TO 173,574 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED WITH A 21 CENT FALL IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 1919 EFP CONTRACTS:

 

FOR DECEMBER: 1919 CONTRACTS, FOR MARCH 0 CONTRACTS, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1919.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 854 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  872 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1919 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   1047 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 21 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of DECEMBER and here in this front month of December we now have 281 contracts standing for a LOSS of 22 contracts.  We had 26 contracts stand for delivery yesterday so we gained 4 contracts or an additional 20,000 oz will not stand for delivery as these guys morphed into London based forwards as well as  accepting a fiat bonus.

 

After  December we have the non active  January contract month and here we saw a LOSS of 50 contracts up to 1831 contracts.  February saw its another 5 contract gain to stand at 112. March, the next big delivery month after December saw a LOSS of 1872 contracts down to 142,531

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1.2017 WE HAD A RATHER LARGE: 19.47 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY

BY THE END OF DECEMBER:  33.295 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NAME OF THE GAME IN SILVER.

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the DEC, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 153,226 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  201,928  contracts

volumes at the comex for both gold and silver are much less than usual.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

DEC 17-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
160.755
oz
Brinks
5 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

 

 

nil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
12 notice(s)
 1200 OZ
0.037 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
406 contracts
(40600 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
7273 notices
726100 OZ
22.622 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 2 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

 

total gold customer deposits;  nil oz

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks:

160.755 oz was withdrawn out of Brinks  (5 kilobars)

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  160.755 oz

 

we had 2  adjustments….and this is what I have been looking for:
i) Out of HSBC:  3923.798 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of HSBC
ii) Out of JPMorgan; 1929.0000 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of JPM
both of thse adjustments would no doubt be settlements:
total: 5852.798 oz or .1820 tonnes

FOR THE DEC 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 12 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 7 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7273) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (418 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (12 x 100 oz per contract) equals 766,700 OZ OR 23.847 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DECEMBER

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (7273 x 100 oz)  + {418)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (12 x 100 oz )which equals 766,700 oz standing OR 23.847 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DECEMBER.

WE LOST 13 CONTRACTS OR 1300 OZ WILL NOT  STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY  MORPHED INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS  ACCEPTING A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 22.419 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 23.847 TONNES STANDING FOR DECEMBER

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  720,737.835 oz or   22.419 tonnes*
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,338,854.476 oz 259.37 tonnes
*however we have 22.622 tonnes of gold ALREADY SERVED UPON against dealer inventory of 22.419 tonnes and so far we have had no settlements  as of yet.  We generally get a settlement when we see an adjustment from the dealer side to the customer side..
we have a total of 23.847 tonnes of gold standing for metal against only 22.419 tonnes of dealer gold and .182 tonnes has been settled so far…

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 95 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

DEC INITIAL standings/SILVER

DEC 17, 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1985.096 oz
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
146,271.230
oz
Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
281 contracts
1,405,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3899 contracts

(19,495,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 150.55 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.03% of all official comex silver. (152.0 million/292 million)

 

ii) Into Delaware: 146,271.239 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 146,271.230  oz

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i) Out of Delaware: 1985.096 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 195.096  oz

 

we had 1 adjustments

i) Out of JPMorgan 5147.300oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into  the customer account of JPM

and this would be deemed a settlement of one contract.

 

total dealer silver:  89.432 million

total dealer + customer silver:  298.087  million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2018. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR NIL oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3899 x 5,000 oz = 19,495,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (281) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2018 contract month: 3899(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC( 281) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 20,900,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained 4 contracts or 20,000 additional oz will stand and these guys refused to accept a London based forward as well as negate receiving a fiat bonus. The EFP route is nothing but a cash settlement process and it is done in London to avoid detection. It is becoming quite obvious that the bankers are in urgent need of silver as we witness the constant queue jumping in silver these past 20 months.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 40,533 CONTRACTS  … 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 69.243 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 69,243 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 346 million OZ  49.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -3.93-% (DEC 17/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.71% to NAV (DEC 17 /2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.93%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.50/TRADING 12.01/DISCOUNT 3.93

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC  17 WITH GOLD UP $10.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/SOMETHING IS BURNING…/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.32 TONNES

DEC 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

DEC 7/WITH GOLD UP $8.35/A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.51 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

DEC 6/WITH GOLD UP $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.25: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.30: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 26/WITH GOLD DOWN 65 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

 

NOV 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.95: A BIG CHANGE: A GOOD SIZED DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 16/WITH GOLD UP $8.00: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.48 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 15/WITH GOLD UP $5.35/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $8.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.77 TONNES AT THE GLD/THAT SHOULD END THE WHACKING OF GOLD FOR NOW AND A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 84 TONNES: INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 17.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 763.56 tonnes

*IN LAST 517 TRADING DAYS: 171.60 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 417 TRADING DAYS: A NET 11.60 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 939,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/.

DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY ESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 7/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.817 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ.

DEC 4/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ/

DEC 3/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.22 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV /INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ.

NOV 28/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 188,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ/

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.301 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.718 MILLION OZ/

NOV 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ

NOV 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ.

NOV 21/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 563,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 16/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS; A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 328,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/ A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.784 MILLION OZ

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ/

 

 

DEC 17/2018:

 

Inventory 318.735 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.42/ and libor 6 month duration 2.90

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .48

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.68%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.10

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.42

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

Gold Flowing From West To East and Now To Goldman Sachs

Gold is not only flowing from West to East.

It is also flowing into the house account at Goldman Sachs. Or at least the paper claims for it in New York.

Below is the monthly report showing the large amounts of physical gold which have been steadily flowing through the Shanghai markets into strong hands in China.

Few commentators are talking about this.

What is less familiar, and what I have not read about much, is the very large amount of gold that Goldman Sachs has been taking delivery on the Comex this month.

Attached are a few of the clearing reports below.

Notice that the big takers are the house account at Goldman, and some presumably large customer at JPM.

What’s up with that?

 

via Jesse’s Café Américain

 

 

Secure Storage Ireland – Click here for information

 

News and Commentary

Gold prices edge down as firm dollar weighs (Reuters.com)

Stocks Struggle as Dollar Slips to Start Fed Week: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg.com)

Malaysia Files 1MDB-Linked Criminal Charges Against Goldman Sachs (Bloomberg.com)

China Sees Bankruptcies Surge; Bondholders May Get Less Back (Bloomberg.com)

Here come the class-action lawsuits against JPM for rigging gold and silver futures (CNBC.com)

Europe’s Retail Apocalypse Spreads to Online From Shopping Malls (Bloomberg.com)


Source: Bloomberg

Now May Be a Good Time for Silver as Undervauled Versus Gold (Bloomberg.com)

Commodities have strong fundamentals and demand growth in 2019 (Bloomberg.com)

Here’s what 2019 may have in store for commodities such as gold and natural gas (MarketWatch.com)

This Gold Chart Analysis Shows We’re Closer To A SIGNIFICANT Monetary Event (HubertmoolMan)

Ten years on, Fed’s long, strange, trip to zero redefined central banking (Reuters.com)

BIS fears financial seizure at the heart of the world’s clearing system (Telegraph.co.uk)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

14 Dec: USD 1,239.15, GBP 983.39 & EUR 1,096.90 per ounce
13 Dec: USD 1,244.45, GBP 982.87 & EUR 1,093.62 per ounce
12 Dec: USD 1,244.75, GBP 993.31 & EUR 1,098.24 per ounce
11 Dec: USD 1,248.25, GBP 988.99 & EUR 1,096.59 per ounce
10 Dec: USD 1,246.80, GBP 980.61 & EUR 1,092.57 per ounce
07 Dec: USD 1,241.20, GBP 972.98 & EUR 1,091.51 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

14 Dec: USD 14.58, GBP 11.61 & EUR 12.92 per ounce
13 Dec: USD 14.68, GBP 11.60 & EUR 12.90 per ounce
12 Dec: USD 14.66, GBP 11.68 & EUR 12.93 per ounce
11 Dec: USD 14.64, GBP 11.62 & EUR 12.85 per ounce
10 Dec: USD 14.53, GBP 11.48 & EUR 12.73 per ounce
07 Dec: USD 14.49, GBP 11.34 & EUR 12.73 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Brexit Risk Sees Gold Rise To Test EUR 1,100 Per Ounce
– Yellen Warns Another Financial Crisis Is Brewing
– Gold Krugerrand Coin Worth $1,200 Donated To Charity Again
– EU Recession Imminent – Euro Disunion as Brexit, Italy and End of QE Loom
– Gold and Silver Gained 2% and 3% Last Week While Stocks Dropped Nearly 5%
– Irish Central Bank Refuses To Discuss Gold Reserves In Bank of England Vaults
– “Fake Markets” To Lead to Global Financial Crisis? – Goldnomics Podcast
– Gold Is “Coiled” and Looks Set To Surge Like Natural Gas — Bloomberg Intelligence
– “Collapse Of Civilisation Is On The Horizon” – Attenborough Warns World Leaders

Watch on Youtube here

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
 
END
 
ii) GATA stories
Brandon White shows us that the USA Government will be less able to hide gold intervention
(courtesy Brandon White BMG/GATA)

BMG Group’s Brandon White: Governments less able to hide intervention against gold

 Section: 

8:15p ET Friday, December 14, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

With his Friday night “This Week in Three Minutes” commentary, Brandon White of gold dealer BMG Group in Ontario says the new year will be a defensive one for investors and that surreptitious intervention by governments against gold is being increasingly exposed as agencies refuse to answer questions about it.

White’s commentary is headlined “Sentiment Off” and it can be viewed here:

https://wr211.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/67230/efd7456dd2c489a6/1844…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

As expected, here comes the class action lawsuits against JPMorgan for rigging gold and silver.  I believe it is a touch to early.  What JPMorgan’s chief trader admitted to was only 1% of the fraud

(courtesy Giel/CNBC/GATA)

Here come the class-action lawsuits against JPM for rigging gold and silver futures

 Section: 

JPMorgan Faces Potential Class-Action Lawsuit After Guilty Plea by a Former Metals Trader

By Dawn Giel
CNBC, New York
Thursday, December 13, 2018

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse JPMorganChase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation’s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut unveiled a plea agreement with a former JPMorganChase metals trader

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm’s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to JPMorgan’s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class-action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case. …

… Dispatch continues below …

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/13/jp-morgan-faces-lawsuits-after-guilty-pl…

end

 

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

  • At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation’s biggest bank, have been filed in the last month in New York federal court.
  • The cases could potentially include thousands of people who trade in the precious metals market.
  • A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015.
RT: JP Morgan Chase Bank headquarters
The J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. headquarters in New York.
Amr Alfiky | Reuters

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation’s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut unveiled a plea agreement with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm’s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan’s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds’ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P.  Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department’s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak’s suit, sought to re-interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

end

A good history lesson of an early attempt at standardizing money using international gold coins failed.

(courtesy JP Konig/Bullionstar/GATA)

J.P. Koning: An early attempt at standardizing money using international gold coins

 Section: 

11:43a ET Sunday, December 16, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Writing at Bullion Star today, economist J.P. Koning recounts attempts from the mid-1800s to standardize the gold coins of the major Western nations to facilitate international trade. The mechanics weren’t too difficult but the politics proved to be.

Of course computers and the internet today make gold’s divisibility and exchange in international commerce easier than ever, but the politics is a greater problem, since no government really wants to diminish its power by increasing gold’s use in the world monetary system and thereby liberating people from fiat money.

Koning’s essay is headlined “An Early Attempt at Standardizing Money Using International Gold Coins” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/jp-koning/an-early-attempt-at-standard…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Your most important commentary of the day.  For over 18 years I have been pounding the table on the dangers of derivatives and it seems that this danger is coming to fruition.  Last month a small sector had trouble clearing a trade of just over 100 million dollars. The leveraged bond market has basically busted as there were no takers for a trade and the banks were obliged to put this junk on their books.  The big problem is what he highlighted to you on Friday, the huge BBB- bonds trading  (3/4 of a trillion dollars) and if they are downgraded one step to junk, the game is over….

a must must read..

(courtesy Ambrose Evans Pritchard)

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: BIS warns of seizure at heart of financial clearing system

 Section: 

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Sunday, December 16, 2018

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/12/16/bis-fears-financial-seiz…

The pillars of the global financial system are fundamentally unstable and could lead to a frightening chain-reaction in the next crisis, the world’s top watchdog has warned.

Giant “central counterparties” (CCPs) that clear much of the $540 trillion (L428 trillion) nexus of derivatives are themselves vulnerable to failure in times of extreme stress.

This is a worry looming ever larger as rising US interest rates expose the weak links in global debt markets.

The Bank for International Settlements said in its quarterly report that the CCPs could cause “a destabilising feedback loop, amplifying stress.”

The implicit message is that well-meaning regulators may have made the financial architecture more dangerous by mistake.

The near meltdown of the Scandinavian counterparty Nasdaq Clearing AB in September came as a rude shock to the global authorities, and a foretaste of what might happen on a much bigger scale should anything serious go wrong.

In that case a E114 million default by Norwegian trader Einar Aas — caught on the wrong side of a “convergence play” on electricity prices — burned through his collateral and then through two thirds of a reserve fund from non-defaulting members. The crisis was contained but it exposed the fragility of the system.

The notional value of the derivatives cleared worldwide is 4.4 times world GDP, up from 2.8 times in 2008. JP Morgan alone has a $30 trillion book.

The BIS warned that regulators have inadvertently created a “CCP-bank nexus” — somewhat akin to the sovereign/bank doom loop in the eurozone — in which the two feed on such other.

The rotten apple contaminates the healthy banks. A fire sale of assets spreads contagion. Banks may be forced to hoard liquidity to protect themselves. The BIS said “balance sheet interlinkages” and what it calls the “CCP default waterfall” could unravel with “potentially system-wide effects.”

It is just one of many late-cycle pathologies highlighted by the Swiss-based watchdog, the bank of the central banking fraternity and the high priest of orthodoxy.

Another brutal week on Wall Street has brought these risks into sharper focus. The three key equity indexes in the United States are all in a full correction after falling over 10 percent from their peak.

Germany’s DAX index has dropped 19 percent since January, and the Shanghai Composite is down 27 percent. “The market tensions we saw during this quarter were not an isolated event,” said Claudio Borio, BIS chief economist.

Central banks are walking a tightrope as they try to extract themselves from a decade of emergency stimulus. Quantitative easing and ultra-low rates have lifted debt ratios to levels that are 40 basis points higher than the pre-Lehman peak, this time led by emerging markets. Nobody knows where the pain threshold lies for monetary tightening in such circumstances.

The BIS says the nature of the world’s business cycle has entirely changed over the last three decades. For most of the 20th century booms turned to bust when rising inflation forced authorities to jam on the brakes.

This is no longer the case. Globalization and the inclusion of China and emerging Asia in the trading system have suppressed inflation. What now brings the party to an end is excess credit and rising debt service ratios. As conditions tighten, the financial system eventually buckles under its own weight.

The thrust of BIS research is that we may be close to this inflexion point. Standard & Poor’s says the number of junk bonds rated B minus or below has jumped from 17 to 25 percent over the last year. This is now the highest since global financial crisis.

The average yield on U.S. junk bonds has risen 165 basis points to 7.2 percent over the last year. A cascade of downgrades has begun. The spike has been even more dramatic in the eurozone where stress is nearing danger levels, leaving credit analysts baffled by the European Central Bank’s decision to halt quantitative easing this month.

The BIS fears a waterfall effect. “The bulge of BBB corporate debt, just above junk status, hovers like a dark cloud over investors. Should this debt be downgraded, if and when the economy weakened, it is bound to put substantial pressure on a market that is already quite illiquid,” said Mr. Borio.

The volumes are sobering. The ratio of U.S. corporate debt to gross domestic product is 73.5 percent of GDP, higher than in 2008, although this is a children’s playground compared to China. The share of leveraged loans in the U.S. with risky “covenant-lite” contracts has reached 80 percent this year.

The $1.3 trillion market for leveraged loans has become an increasing worry. Prices of this debt on the secondary market are breaking down. To clear the transaction in early December, JPMorgan slashed the price for an XOJET takeover loan to 93 cents on the dollar.

The Achilles’ heel for the global economy is the surging U.S. dollar. The BIS says offshore lending in dollars by European, Japanese, and increasingly Chinese and emerging market banks has risen to $12.8 trillion. The figure is probably far higher if opaque “off-balance-sheet” liabilities are included.

This web of dollar liabilities is coming under intense strain as the U.S. Federal Reserve drains liquidity, pushing up global lending rates. A worldwide dollar shortage is emerging. This is acting as tourniquet, tightening an international system built on dollar funding.

An estimated $9 trillion of global contracts are priced off 3-month LIBOR rates, which have doubled to 2.77 percent over the last year. The “LIBOR-OIS spread” has also jumped to 40 basis points and is flashing early-warning signs of stress in the overnight funding markets for dollars in Europe and Asia. The 30 percent crash in European banks stocks this year is hinting at a incipient credit crunch.

The BIS warned that some of these offshore dollar lenders may face a “funding squeeze” of their own, forcing them to withdraw credit in a chain-reaction. “Cross-border funding, regardless of the source, may be fickle in a crisis,” it said.

The possibility that a major central counterparty might “fall over” in the next crisis is sobering. The G20 mandated a shift in global finance towards CCPs after the 2008 crisis, deeming them the “unlikely heroes” of the Lehman shock. The counterparties managed to auction, liquidate, or transfer almost all of Lehman’s derivative portfolios in an orderly fashion, including $9 trillion of interest rate swaps made up of 66,390 trades.

But the G20 may have over-interpreted the Lehman lesson. There have been plenty of CCP failures in the past. France’s Caisse de Liquidation des Affaires came awry in 1974 when the sugar market blew up. The Hong Kong Futures Guarantee Corp. failed in 1987. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange had a close shave the same year after the October crash.

There was a whiff of trouble immediately after the Brexit referendum when margin calls hit $27 billion. It is a foretaste of what could happen to Europe’s financial system if the European Union persists in its refusal to reciprocate the UK pledge to recognize the legal continuity of E45 trillion of derivative contracts after March 2019.

Nobody knows what would happen if Britain’s LCH or Germany’s Eurex Clearing came under stress. They have thin layers of capital compared to banks.

Before the 2008 crisis most derivatives were cleared by trading parties in direct dealings. The G20 shift has lifted the share of CCPs for interest rate derivatives from 20 to 60 percent. The effect is to concentrate risk. The BIS warns that the system may encourage a rush for the exit in events of extreme stress.

The International Monetary Fund has also flagged the dangers. It warned this year that CCPs “increase the risk of a failure of the infrastructure itself” and could lead to a “catastrophe” if the all layers of defense were overrun by a big default. It would be like the failure of the Maginot Line.

The G20 may have made the world financial system more hazardous.

… 

END

They are perfectly correct:  there is a lack of liquidity, stock markets collapse.

another must read..

(courtesy Jain/Times of India/GATA)

Ritesh Jain: It’s the liquidity, Stupid! That’s what is causing all the turmoil

 Section: 

By Ritesh Jain
The Times of India, Mumbai
Sunday, December 16, 2018

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/its-the-liquidi…

Nedbank strategists Mehul and Neels write some exciting stuff and, like me, they don’t confuse fundamentals with liquidity. They write in a strategy note:

There is a strong relationship between the change in global dollar liquidity (M1) and the performance of the global stock market — a  correlation of 76 percent.

Global dollar liquidity leads global stock markets by an average of eight months.

— If there is no boost to global dollar liquidity, we expect this relationship to hold. As a result, the risk of further downside potential for stock markets across the world would remain intact.

— We believe this is the “canary in a coal mine” for risk assets.

— U.S. dollar-denominated debt of emerging market corporates has grown from $650 billion in 2009 to the current $3.2 trillion and there are significant mismatches — U.S. dollar-denominated debt as a percentage of gross domestic product is 70 percent and that of percentage of reserves is 75 percent.

— Amid a slowdown in global growth, coupled with a tighter global dollar-Liquidity environment, if emerging-market corporate spreads continue to widen, it would negate our view below on emerging-market equities — that is, that a short-term bounce is possible.

… My two cents

So, it comes down to liquidity — and the global money supply is not expanding. In fact it is contracting. The Fed is already in quantitative tightening mode. (Forget rate increases, which are only the cost of providing liquidity.) In a widely expected decision, the European Central Bank has also decided to stop its quantitative easing.

So how will existing debt be serviced and how will the new debt be created if the private sector and consumer are already leveraged?

* * *

END

Von Greyerz at Kingworld news highlights correctly the collapse of the European bank stock index and he warns that there will be an imminent crash of the European banking system and then a stock market crash.

(Kingworld news/ Von Greyerz/GATA)

Von Greyerz, at KWN, notes collapse of European bank stocks

 Section: 

8:31p ET Sunday, December 16, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Swiss gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz, in commentary posted at King World News, calls attention to both the long-term and short-term collapse of the European bank stock index, which he construes as an indicator of the imminent crash of the European banking system and then a stock market crash.

Von Greyerz’s commentary is headlined “We Have Just Seen a Huge Warning that a Global Collapse Is about to Unfold” and it’s posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/greyerz-we-have-just-seen-a-huge-warning-that-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END




iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

We are working on this:  the status of gold in the new Basel iii

Nicholas Biezanek

4:15 AM (3 hours ago)

to Williamme
Hi Bill/Harvey,
 I have spent some time trying to understand what, if anything, will be different on 1st January 2019 in respect of the status of gold under BIS reporting and liquidity regulations.
The only change that I can discern is that from 1st January 2019 the implementation of the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) rules will be fully phased at 100%, after initial implementation at 60% on 1st January 2015, incrementing by 10% until 2019.Whilst cash has a 0% Required Stable Funding Factor (RSF), unencumbered gold has a 50% RSF factor which is unchanged  from the initial promulgation in January 2013 of the Basel III Liquidity Coverage Ratio and Liquidity Risk Monitoring Tools.I remember this 50% RSF factor was a great disappointment  at the time of the unveiling of these rules. The BIS has a pathological hatred of gold and I am working on the assumption that nothing has changed in this regard.
Regards
Nicholas
end
and a second email, on this important topic

_

Nicholas Biezanek

10:07 AM (25 minutes ago)

to me
As I understand it, the  BASEL iii framework was promulgated in 2013 with implementation from 2015 on wards.Cash (I don’t know whether the definition includes bank current accounts and on demand deposits) was allocated a 0% risk weighting but gold was allocated a 50% weighting. I would love gold’s recognition to be elevated to that accorded cash and sovereign bonds but this transformation in status is currently not possible to verify and I have tried very hard to so do.
Regards
Nicholas

________________

end

 

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8971/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS ON TRUCE/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8966   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 4.23 POINTS OR 0.16%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 6.81 POINTS OR 0.03%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 132.85 POINTS OR 0.62%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 97.24/Euro RISES TO 1.1343

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 113.62/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 51.76 and Brent: 61.08

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.25%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.95% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.40%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.70: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.32

3k Gold at $1239.75 silver at:14.62   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 31/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.33

3m oil into the 51 dollar handle for WTI and 60 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.28 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9935 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1270 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.25%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.88% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.14%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.3765

 

Global Stock Rally Fizzles As Europe Slammed By “Retail Apocalypse”

Another attempt to rally S&P futures overnight has fizzled, this time as a result of weakness in Europe and a mixed session in Asia, following a sharp decline in European retailers due to a record plunge in UK online retailer Asos Plc which collapsed after warning that Christmas shopping got off to a disastrous start, dragging its shares to a 2 year low and hitting the sector.

In an otherwise quiet session as traders prepare for this week’s critical Fed meeting, shares in European retailer Asos plunged by over 40% after the company cut expectations for the current financial year.  The last time its shares traded this low was back in 2015/16. The company said it was experiencing a “significant deterioration” in the trading month of November and that conditions remain challenging. Guidance is slashed to 15% from earlier expectation of 20-25%. As Inezfrans notes, “the move lower is absolutely astonishing.”

Asos cut its full-year sales-growth guidance on a “significant deterioration” in November, blaming a high level of discounting amid economic uncertainty and low consumer confidence, which has been undermined in the U.K. by the continuing Brexit saga.

The rest of the Europe’s big retailers including Marks & Spencer, JD Sports, Next and Boohoo all fell in London, while German giant Zalando has also joining the implosion of the retailers, falling by 15% on Xetra.

Commenting on Europe’s “retail apocalypse“, Bloomberg notes that the gloomy update from the online retailer – which competes with Amazon.com and has furnished fashions to the likes of Meghan Markle – shows that retail weakness is widespread in the runup to the holidays. Last week, Sports Direct International Plc Chief Executive Officer Mike Ashley said sales were “unbelievably bad” in November, sending the shares off a cliff.

“This goes against the script,” said Stephen Lienert, a credit analyst at Jefferies. “It was supposed to be bricks and mortar that’s dying and online is the future, but that headline gets ripped up today.”

The Asos news shows that retailers can’t rely on online operations to make up for a decline in stores this year. If December doesn’t improve, the New Year may bring more profit warnings, or worse, to the sector. Meanwhile, other retailers such as Debenhams Plc and Marks & Spencer, which are in the midst of turnaround plans, may be particularly vulnerable. The U.K.’s shopping districts have already been decimated by a series of collapses, including the insolvency of department-store chain House of Fraser, which Ashley rescued earlier this year.

Investors in retail debt are also feeling the pain. Debenhams’ 200 million pounds of bonds due July 2021 have plummeted 35 pence on the pound since the start of the year to 64 pence, the lowest since the notes were sold in 2014, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index dropped to session lows, down 0.5% following the Asos plunge and retail sector weakness. In contrast, mining shares are up 1% after China managed to close modestly higher after the PBOC injected a net CNY150BN in reverse repo liquidity after 36 days of silence. Among Europe’s other biggest decliners are Novartis -1%, Adidas -3.4% and H&M -7.2%.

Earlier in the session, Asian markets began the week cautiously following the downbeat lead from Wall Street in which the three major indexes closed lower by around 2% each with the Dow plunging almost 500 points to its lowest level since early May, led
lower by shares in Apple and Johnson & Johnson, while the S&P and Nasdaq were dragged down by tech names as the sector
lagged. Australia’s ASX 200 (+1.0%) was buoyed by material and mining names after MOFCOM confirmed the suspension of retaliatory tariffs on US vehicles and auto parts, while Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) initially outperformed on currency effect as the export-heavy index benefitted from the weaker JPY. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (Unch) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) traded choppy and swung between gains and losses in which the indices initially dipped in the red as industrial names were again pressured in a continuation from the weak IP data last week, housing names then provided the bourses with some support amid an improvement in house prices data.

Futures on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq fluctuated before dipping in the red, dragged lower by Europe’s weakness.

Treasuries posted modest gains to start the week, with the 10Y yield dipping 1 basis point to 2.8786% and have seen some bull steepening with 2s/10s and 10-year futures uneventful ahead of an action-packed central bank week, that kicks off with the Chinese Central Economic Work Conference from Tuesday ahead of the FOMC on Wednesday, with BoJ, BoE and more thereafter, alongside US housing data tomorrow.

In foreign exchange markets, most currencies were little changed. The dollar fell after a strong week that took it to the highest in a month, following bizarre strength in the euro which hit fresh session high even as data show annual euro-area inflation slipped to 1.9% in November, the lowest since May, from 2.2% the previous month; the yen was steady after a bout of risk aversion hammered global equities in recent sessions.  Emerging-market shares and currencies edged higher thanks to the drop in the dollar: Mexico’s peso rallied after President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador promised a surplus in next year’s budget.

“The market appears to be underpricing the Fed, and any indication of additional gradual increases is likely to bring potential dollar upside versus rate-sensitive currencies,” Barclays strategists wrote in a note.

Core EU bonds have recovered some ground after touching session lows (163.04 and 123.37) with Bunds deriving some support from another retreat in BTPs (trading near lows at 125.20), that has pushed German benchmark futures back above par to print  new highs at 163.29. Italian bond yields edged higher even as Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte forged a deal with populist leaders to submit a revised budget proposal to the European Commission in a bid to avert fines: The new plan confirms the 2019 deficit target will be lowered to 2.04 percent of GDP from 2.4 percent as Conte flagged to Brussels last week. Meanwhile Gilts have been further depressed by the accounting changes at the ONS which “effectively wipes out the Brexit buffer” after the Brexit-driven downturn, that has pushed the benchmark to trade in close proximity to lows of the day.

Elsewhere, Malaysia turned up the heat on Goldman Sachs Group Inc., filing criminal charges against the U.S. bank.

Markets are expected to be relatively quiet until this week’s FOMC announcement, when the Fed is expected to raise interest rates for a fourth time this year, but it will be Chairman Powell’s remarks that will be closely studied for hints on their future path and whether the dot plot is trimmed to forecast 2 rate hikes in 2019 instead of 3; a failure to turn more dovish would lead to another rout in risk assets as global growth forecasts for next year are being trimmed at an accelerating pace.

“A final key rate hike for 2018 is almost a done deal, but what is more important is how the Fed’s dot plots shift in 2019 and beyond. If U.S. monetary policymakers are seeing a serious risk of economic slowdown, those dots should be pulled downwards,”said FXTM strategist Hussein Sayed.

In this week’s other key events, investors will be looking to a speech by China’s President Xi Jinping on Tuesday marking the 40th anniversary of China’s reforms and opening up. China – where the economy has been rapidly losing momentum – is also expected to hold its annual Central Economic Work Conference later this week, where key growth targets and policy goals for 2019 will be discussed. The top decision-making body of the Communist Party, the Politburo, said last week China will keep its economic growth within a reasonable range next year, striving to support jobs, trade and investment while pushing reforms and curbing risks.

“It’s generally assumed that you will need to expand fiscal and monetary support to achieve those goals,” said Tokai Tokyo Research strategist Wang Shenshen.

The optimism before Xi’s speech helped base metals rise, although weak economic indicators capped gains.

Meanwhile political uncertainty still grips investors. There are yet more personnel changes within the Trump administration and confusion remains over Britain’s future relationship with the European Union.

“There’s been a reevaluation of growth and inflation prospects over 2019 with the trade war now looking extremely negative,” Steve Goldman, fund manager at Kapstream Capital, told Bloomberg TV in Sydney. “We’re going to see a lot of volatility.”

As reported over the weekend, Trump’s Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke will leave at the end of the year amid a swirl of federal investigations.

Elsewhere, in the neverending Brexit drama, investors will monitor Theresa May’s comments after her team pushed back against reports they are warming to a second referendum on Brexit. The U.K. prime minister will face Parliament on Monday.

In commodities, Brent (+1.0%) and WTI (+1.0%) have shown a modest upside in prices which is more a by-product of currency effects as the dollar drifts lower. This morning there have been reports that Russia’s oil output has been at a record high of 11.42mln BPD in December, with prices unreactive to this news. Additionally, the UAE Energy Minister has said that he expects everyone to cut oil supply following the OPEC agreement, and separately reports state that China’s Shenghong has begun building a 330k BPD refinery in Jiangsu. Gold has traded within a tight USD 4/oz range, but has recently begun to firm slightly as the DXY has remained largely unchanged ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. Elsewhere, steel and iron ore prices have begun to rise due to winter production cuts, as Chinese authorities are trying to reduce air pollution levels.

Expected data include Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Heico, Oracle, and Red Hat are reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,610.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 345.76
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 149.57
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 482.53
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 21,506.88
  • Topix up 0.1% to 1,594.20
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.03% to 26,087.98
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 2,597.97
  • Sensex up 0.9% to 36,290.73
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1% to 5,658.27
  • Kospi up 0.08% to 2,071.09
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to 0.255%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1327
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.7 bps to 2.577%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 1.419%
  • Brent futures up 0.7% to $60.70/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,239.59
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 97.23

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The dollar’s gains over the past three months have spurred hedge funds to cut bullish bets to the lowest since June. Leveraged funds trimmed positions wagering on gains in the greenback by the most since September, according to the latest data from the U.S. CFTC based on eight currency pairs
  • Donald Trump won’t be sitting down with Special Counsel Robert Mueller to answer more questions in his investigation into election interference, Rudy Giuliani, the president’s attorney, vowed on Sunday
  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will attack supporters of a second Brexit referendum on Monday as she explains to Parliament why European Union leaders rebuffed her attempt to make her divorce deal more attractive to lawmakers
  • Australia is on track to return to the black for the first time since the global financial crisis, almost doubling the size of its projected surplus in fiscal 2020, according to projections from the Treasury
  • The Italian government will trim its deficit target for next year in its latest proposal that seeks to avoid EU sanctions for violating the bloc’s budget rules, the Ansa news agency reported
  • The toll Brexit is taking on the U.K. housing market was laid bare in surveys published Monday

Asian equity markets began the week somewhat cautiously following the downbeat lead from Wall St. in which the three major bourses closed lower by around 2% each. The Dow plunged almost 500 points to its lowest level since early May, led lower by shares in Apple and Johnson & Johnson, while the S&P and Nasdaq were dragged down by tech names as the sector lagged. ASX 200 (+1.0%) was buoyed by material and mining names after MOFCOM confirmed the suspension of retaliatory tariffs on US vehicles and auto parts, while Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) initially outperformed on currency effect as the export-heavy index benefitted from the weaker JPY. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (Unch) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) traded choppy and swung between gains and losses in which the indices initially dipped in the red as industrial names were again pressured in a continuation from the weak IP data last week, housing names then provided the bourses with some support amid an improvement in house prices data. Finally, 10yr JGB yields touched over 5-month lows as fears of slower global growth boosted demand for the debt.

Top Asian News

  • China Built a Global Economy in 40 Years, Now It Has a New Plan
  • JDI Posts Record 2-Day Rally as Company Hints Demand May Improve
  • Takeda Downgraded by Moody’s on Lofty Debt After Shire Deal
  • 1MDB USD Bonds See Biggest Drop In 2 Weeks After Malaysia Charge
  • China Bond Issuers Shorten Process to Clinch Year-End Deals

Major European indices are in the red [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%], with losses generally broad-based although there is some underperformance in the SMI (-0.6%) with heavyweight UBS (-0.4%) in the red having lost ground against rivals after USD 3.1bln was removed from their ETF business in November; alongside Swatch (-3.0%) and Richemont (-0.9%) who were both downgraded at Morgan Stanley. Similarly, sectors are in the red with some underperformance seen in Consumer Discretionary alongside the European Retail Sector, the latter dropping to its lowest level since July 2016. This follows Asos (-40.0%) plummeting after cutting their full year outlook, which has pulled other retail names down in sympathy. In addition, ABB (+0.8%) are up after the Co has reached a deal with Hitachi regarding their power grids division valued at USD 11bln. SSE (-2.0%) are lower as they have been unable to come to an agreement with Innogy (-1.0%) on revised commercial terms.

Top European News

  • SSE Pulls the Plug on U.K. Energy Retail Merger With Innogy
  • Euro- Area Inflation Revised Down After ECB Pledged to Halt QE
  • Italy Govt Has Resources to Cover 2.04% Deficit in 2019: Ansa
  • DWS Head Asoka Woehrmann Reshuffles Regional Leadership Roles
  • Toxic Politics and Fading Stimulus: East Europe’s 2019 Risks

In FX, the DXY has traded in a 97.199-463 range for the index almost says it all in terms of the lacklustre start in  currency markets to the final full week of the year. However, the Dollar is treading cautiously into the FOMC amidst an approximate 75% probability for a 4th 25 bp hike, with the focus firmly on updated policy guidance and fresh dot plots to see whether the consensus has shifted towards a pause in tightening or a shallower rate profile from 2019 out.

  • NZD/AUD – The Kiwi is just about keeping its head above 0.6800 vs its US counterpart and in front of the G10 pack, but largely by default and relative weakness in the Aud after the Australian Treasury downgraded its 2018/9 growth forecast to 2.75% from 3% overnight. Indeed, Aud/Usd remains capped ahead of 0.7200 where a decent 1.1 bn option expiry resides, while the Aud/Nzd cross is back under 1.0550.
  • EUR – The single currency has reclaimed 1.1300+ status vs the Greenback, but may also be hampered by expiry interest between 1.1320-35 as 1.1 bn runs off at the NY cut, or technical resistance at the 30 DMA circa 1.1353 if the headline pair manages to  clear option-related offers/hedges convincingly. No discernible reaction to final Eurozone inflation data even though the EU-harmonised measure was unexpectedly trimmed to 1.9% y/y from 2%
  • JPY/CAD – Both relatively flat vs the US Dollar and rangebound (113.25-50 and 1.3375-90 respectively), with the former awaiting the last BoJ meeting of the year ahead of the Fed and the latter only deriving modest momentum from firmer crude prices.
  • EM – The Mxn is benefiting from the broad Usd downturn and some bullish Peso sentiment following the Mexican budget projections to retest resistance ahead of 20.0000, but the Try is bucking the general trend in wake of considerably weaker than expected Turkish ip data, as the Lira struggles to hold above 5.4000.

In commodities, Brent (+1.0%) and WTI (+1.0%) have shown a modest upside in prices with this more a by-product of currency effects as the dollar drifts lower. This morning there have been reports that Russia’s oil output has been at a record high of 11.42mln BPD in December, with prices unreactive to this news. Additionally, the UAE Energy Minister has said that he expects everyone to cut oil supply following the OPEC agreement, and separately reports state that China’s Shenghong has begun building a 330k BPD refinery in Jiangsu. Gold has traded within a tight USD 4/oz range, but has recently begun to firm slightly as the DXY has remained largely unchanged ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. Elsewhere, steel and iron ore prices have begun to rise due to winter production cuts, as Chinese authorities are trying to reduce air pollution levels. Separately, Vedanta may restart its 400ktpa Indian copper smelter following it’s forced closure by the government due to pollution. UAE Energy Minister says he expects “everyone” to cut oil supply as per the OPEC agreement. Kuwait Oil Ministers resignation is said to have been accepted, according to sources.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, est. 20, prior 23.3
  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 60.5, prior 60
  • 4pm: Total Net TIC Flows, prior $29.1b deficit
  • 4pm: Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior $30.8b

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.23 POINTS OR 0.06% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 6.81 POINTS OR 0.03% //The Nikkei closed UP 132.85 OR 0.62%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.95%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8971 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 51.76 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.08 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8966AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8971: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

END

3 C CHINA

We reported to you last week, the ugly numbers that China reported on retail sales and industrial production..probably their most important figures.  Jeffrey Snider reports on those figures and what it means….Is the lack of  USA dollars in China going to create a crisis…he believes so

a must read..

(courtesy Jeffrey Snider)

“What We Are Left With Is Pure Ugly” – Will The Communists Panic Next Week?

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

The Relevant Word Is ‘Decline’

The English language headline for China’s National Bureau of Statistics’ press release on November 2018’s Big 3 was, National Economy Maintained Stable and Sound Momentum of Development in November. For those who, as noted yesterday, are wishing China’s economy bad news so as to lead to the supposed good news of a coordinated “stimulus” response this was itself a bad news/good news situation.

If the Communist State Council is to be flustered into action, the title of the release might suggest maybe not. Then again, there isn’t a month that goes by where the NBS writers don’t write pretty much the same thing. In a Communist country, any wording less than “sound momentum” is surely frowned upon especially when there is no momentum.

Underneath, the figures were all bad. Were they bad enough? I don’t believe anything short of full-fledged collapse will be, but this is attempting to game and analyze a political factor whose proportions are never going to be fully known.

What we are left with is pure ugly. The last time Industrial Production grew at a 5.4% annual rate, as it did last month, it was February 2016 and the worst of times for modern, industrial China. It was also the same month the last “stimulus” was uncorked.

It doesn’t get any lower than the 2015-16 downturn so for Chinese industry to already be at that depth with “this one” just getting started, it all tells us that perhaps there is a lot of downside left to come and that officials are keenly aware of the possibility.

If this was somehow unexpected and unapproved, so to speak, they wouldn’t have waited for 5.4% to reappear. That goes double for consumer spending, or retail sales in this case. Chinese retail activity grew by just 8.1% in November. You have to go back fifteen years to find something less.

What should really stand out especially for the stimulus whisperers is whenChina’s latest economic inflection transpired. It wasn’t Trump and trade, it was in the middle of last year for both IP as well as RS.

Why mid-2017? That was when authorities began to realize the full extent of their predicament. They had done the “stimulus” stuff in a rush to begin 2016 and it didn’t get anywhere. There are often heavy costs to doing these kinds of things, so to pay out a lot and receive very little in return from it is a big counterpoint to thinking about doing it again.

China simply has, as we’ve been writing and speaking about for half a decade (and more, less specifically about China), no monetary room with which to get any kind of internal growth started. That point was driven home last year. The global economy despite all officials protestations everywhere has never once picked up toward recovery.

Therefore, the Chinese government is left between the rock (external malaise) and the hard place (no internal monetary space). Only a few months after June 2017, Communist officials convened at the 19th Party Congress and “elected” to move authoritarian. This, I don’t believe, is mere coincidence.

The only mild positive so far in 2018 is how Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) has stabilized albeit at extremely low levels. Private FAI, in particular, is growing at around a 9% rate (8.8% in November) which is better than late last year.

The flipside of that is how Private FAI seems to have hit a ceiling around 9%, nowhere near the 25% rate that for a few years kept China out of trouble. Even with officials at lower levels (almost certainly on orders from the central government) in the provinces no longer clamping down on the waste of State-owned FAI, it hasn’t stabilized China’s economy because it can’t.

On an accumulated basis, Public FAI rose 2.3% in November (meaning YTD) while on a monthly basis it was less than 7% (annual rate) for the second straight month. Like Private FAI, better than before but not really meaningfully so. It seems more like messaging than meaning.

To me, this adds up to the same thing – an attempt at managing the decline rather than intentions to turn it around as expectations for globally synchronized growth would have required. I wrote more than three years ago, a little over a week after the big shock of CNY in August 2015:

I think they made a conscious effort to try to avoid Japan’s disaster by actively engaging to manage a bubble decline regardless of how much growth had to be “sacrificed” to do so.

That the Chinese would attempt such a “hail mary” to me cemented the Japanese analogy – they had to try because not doing so, the Japanese path, was far, far worse than the dangers of managed decline getting out of hand. A small probability of success was far better than what surely awaited doing nothing.

This obviously matters given the three years in between for how important China is to global growth, but equally for what it says about the world’s economic situation in 2015 and 2018. What I wrote then still fits this many years later:

In Japan’s case, the believed restoration of a more favorable external balance did not arrive before the monetary expiration. I think that is where the PBOC was in 2013, namely that it took the 2012 global slowdown as the final say in the matter of “the other side”; there was only to be an ugly economic fate.

The Chinese began to realize what Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen refused to accept; after 2011 there was not going to be a global recovery because there couldnot be one. The 2011 eurodollar crisis, number two, had been the final say on the matter. When CNY started to fall, meaning the “rising dollar”, in 2014, that was it; the final final nail in the coffin.

China’s economy could get by in 2017 with a few magic tricks (HK) covered by Reflation #3 globally. But in the renewed eurodollar pressures of this #4, the monetary noose could only tighten that much more internal as well as external.

CNY DOWN = BAD.

Maybe the Communists do panic next week surprised not at their own misfortune but by the levels of complacency and denial across the rest of the planet. Somehow, I doubt it. This is nothing more than the same worldwide “L”, for managed decline is still decline. It surely was that in China in November.

end

Don’t you feel sorry for us Canadians:  Canada helped its neighbour in arresting Meng and now they are in a heap of trouble with China.  Canada and China have had strong relations since 1949 (Norman Bethune, a Canadian helped China win their independence)  Now China is preparing for an escalation of conflict with Canada.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

China Press Warns To “Prepare For Escalation Of Conflict With Canada”

Days after revealing that businessman Michael Spavor – who became the second Canadian citizen detained in China since Beijing warned it would retaliate against Canada for the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver earlier this month – had been arrested for “threatening national security”, the Communist Party made clear that this is only the beginning, and that Canada should expect “further escalation” as Beijing has no intentions of backing down – and every intention of sending a message to US allies that they should stay out of the still-simmering dispute between the world’s two largest economies.

CAD

Via an editorial in the Global Times, an English-language Chinese media company considered to be a mouthpiece for the Communist Party, China accused Canada and other US allies of forming “a collective encirclement and suppression of Chinese high-tech enterprise Huawei” – likely a reference to the US’s campaign to convince its allies to avoid Huawei equipment, citing its vulnerability to Chinese spies, as well as Canada’s cooperation in Meng’s detention – the editorial “suggested” that China should leverage its economic heft to deter US allies from taking actions contrary to China’s interest.

By calling on its allies, the US has gradually formed a collective encirclement and suppression of Chinese high-tech enterprise Huawei. It is a wicked precedent.

Almost all US allies maintain active economic and trade ties with China, of which China is the biggest trading partner of many of them. China needs to urge these countries to keep neutral in the conflict between Washington and Beijing.

It is possible for China to achieve this goal to a considerable extent because China does not threaten the strategic security of the US and its allies and it is more conducive for them to pursue national interests by maintaining good ties with China than to follow the hard line of the US.

And if these countries continue to work against China to appease the US, China should not hesitate to retaliate.

However, this does not mean that Beijing will capitulate to them at every step. For those countries that seek to ingratiate themselves to the US without regard to China’s interests, China should firmly fight back, causing a heaving price for them.

Though China should carefully pick and choose when to accommodate these intrusions and when to react, the editorial resolutely stated that Canada had “crossed a line” by detaining Meng.

Canada crossed the line by helping the US detain an executive of Huawei and China needs to clearly express that it doesn’t accept it. If Canada were to ultimately extradite Meng Wanzhou to the US, it would certainly be at the cost of a backslide in China-Canada ties.

In addition, it would be a test for China’s national will and wisdom to decide when to accommodate certain countries for decisions made while being caught between China and the US, and when to resolutely counter their damage to China’s interests.

The editorial goes on to suggest that perhaps if China had taken a harder line against Australia when it became the first country to accept the US’s advice and ban Huawei’s equipment, other countries (like, maybe, Canada) would have thought twice about interfering.

Australia was the first to follow Washington in blocking Huawei devices. As Wu Xinbo, a scholar of Fudan University, pointed out in an interview with the Global Times, “If China firmly fought back on Australia’s decisions, other countries might think twice before considering calling off Huawei’s products.”

China certainly will not overact, because such a move will isolate China and construct the outcome the US prefers. Beijing needs to meticulously select counter-targets to really make them learn a lesson.

When weighing retaliation against the US, China must focus on participants in the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance – particularly Canada, Australia and New Zealand. As we’ve previously reported, infiltrating the “Five Eyes” cabal has long been a focus for Chinese intelligence services.

And as it seeks to do this, China must be prepared for conflicts to escalate.

In this complicated game, China should focus on the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, especially Australia, New Zealand and Canada, who actively follow the US against China. The first two nations are far from the European continent and have a subtle distance with most Western countries. China is the largest trading partner of both Australia and New Zealand and the second largest of Canada, thus the country has enough means to counter them.

In the struggle with Canada, China needs to prepare for the possibility of conflict escalation. Beijing must take the contest seriously and maximize the support of international public opinion, leaving Western media no smear to slander its counterattacks as “degradation of China’s opening-up.”

China’s new round of opening-up is in its ascendancy and in the wake of complicating external games for the country. No matter how difficult the situation is, sincere opening-up is not contradictory to a reasonable defense of China’s interests.

Canadian officials have yet to learn much about the circumstances in which its two citizens have been detained, and China has given no indication that it will release them, despite Meng being granted bail last week.

And judging by the tone of this editorial, China doesn’t plan to relent

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

May’s cabinet secretly are talking about a ‘second referendum” which would not be good. However the UK just does not know what to do next

(courtesy zerohedge)

May’s Cabinet Denies “Second Referendum” Rumors As MPs And Traders Wonder: “What On Earth Do We Do Next?”

After the Brexit-related developments of the past few days, Prime Minister Theresa May will have a lot of explaining to do during what’s likely to be another contentious round of PMQs Monday morning. Following reports that members of May’s cabinet have been reaching across the floor to discuss the feasibility of calling a second Brexit referendum (what supporters have shrewdly branded as a “People’s Vote”), members of the prime minister’s government have scrambled to make clear that they have absolutely zero intention of resorting to such a callous disregard of the popular will (despite the fact that it’s probably the only sensible option available to May if she wants to avert a hard Brexit).

The logic behind a second vote makes sense: Either the people will deliver a popular mandate for MPs to accept Theresa May’s deal, or they will cancel Brexit all together (because thanks to “Project Fear”, the prospect of allowing a ‘no deal’ Brexit is just unthinkable.

May

Minister for the Cabinet Office and PM May’s de facto deputy David Lidington denied a Sunday Times report about his back-door negotiating for a second referendum, warning in a tweet that a “People’s Vote” would only risk further harm to the public consciousness.

David Lidington

@DLidington

I think this was pretty plain. ( From Hansard, 11 December)

Meanwhile, Trade Secretary Liam Fox appeared on the BBC to advocate for a vote in Parliament on alternatives if May’s deal is defeated in a vote that’s now expected to happen before Christmas. Since the notion that May’s supremely unpopular deal has no chance of passing has been widely expected for weeks, this would effectively delegate the decision on whether to hold a second referendum, or not, to MPs.

Fox said he “wouldn’t have a huge problem with Parliament as a whole having a say on what the options were” and the votes could be without specific instructions, or unwhipped, so lawmakers wouldn’t have to vote along party lines,” making Fox the first Brexiteer to advocate such a move.

“It wasn’t the government given an instruction in the referendum, it was Parliament,” he said. “They gave us an instruction and its time Parliament carried it out.”

“It’s not one that cabinet has discussed yet, but when you look at the options that we have, we’ve got to recognize there are a limited number of real-world options here,” he said.

Education Secretary Damian Hinds has also suggested “flushing out” the levels of Parliamentary support for different Brexit options although he insisted that there was no majority for any of them.

Remainer MPs have seized on these comments to suggest that Brexit is in jeopardy.

Lib Dem MP Tom Brake (a backer of the pro-remain “Best for Britain” campaign), said that “when even Dr. Fox does not rule out free votes and encourages the idea of indicative votes in Parliament, the Brexit project is clearly in jeopardy.”

But current members of the government aren’t the only ones out there stirring the pot while May struggles with her impossible dilemma. On Saturday, the prime minister blasted her predecessor, former Labour PM Tony Blair, who has been openly advocating (see this Reuterspiece) for another vote. May accused him of “undermining Brexit”, per the BBC.

“For Tony Blair to go to Brussels and seek to undermine our negotiations by advocating for a second referendum is an insult to the office he once held and the people he once served.”

Given that the possibility of holding an “indicative vote” appears to be gaining momentum, BBC political reporter Chris Mason offered his analysis of what, exactly, this means:

What we are witnessing is a bursting out in public of conversations that have been happening for a while, at a senior level, in private.

They can be summarised like this: ‘What on earth do we do next?’

One idea, now floated by three cabinet ministers in public, and others privately, is a series of so called “indicative votes”.

These would flush out Parliament’s view on a range of options which could include different models of Brexit: something akin to Norway’s relationship with the EU for instance, or Canada’s looser one. Another referendum and no deal are other possibilities.

Some ponder doing this before the vote on the prime minister’s deal, in the hope it highlights that her plan is the only workable Brexit deal achievable now.

“Things are not as hopeless as they look,” one cabinet minister told me.

It’s important to remember that, if Parliament does back a clear Brexit alternative – like a Canada-style or Norway-style trade deal – it would still need to be accepted by the EU for the UK to avoid a hard Brexit. So far, the EU has given no indication that it would any deal other than the one that has been negotiated with May (though a “secret alliance” of MPs and EU officials have reportedly been working to bolster support for a Brexit ‘plan B’). Given that opting for another deal would grant no guarantees of May finding a workable alternative, a second referendum, or Article 50 delay, are the most secure alternatives for stopping the UK from crashing out of the EU and reverting to WTO rules come the beginning of Q2.

Echoing analysis from Deutsche Bank and JPM, a recent BAML FX/rates survey showed perceived odds of a second Brexit referendum soared between November and December. However, roughly a third of survey respondents still have no idea what happens next:

end

The vote is now set for Jan 14.2019 and it will be either yes or no.  Then the fun begins

(courtesy zerohedge)

May Says Brexit Deal Vote Will Be Held On Jan. 14

Days after Theresa May threatened to call a vote on her doomed Brexit plan before Christmas in a bid to exert more leverage over unyielding European leaders, who on Friday snubbed the prime minister over her desperate pleas that the Brexit withdrawal agreement be changed to incorporate “legally binding assurances” that the Irish backstop being triggered wouldn’t result in the UK being trapped in the EU customs union, May is apparently moving ahead with her plans to call a vote on the deal, which she revealed on Monday would be set for Jan. 14.

The prime minister had called off a planned vote on her deal last week, pushing rebellious Brexiters to force a no confidence vote among the Tories, as her cabinet warned that the deal was virtually guaranteed to be voted down. Since then, little has changed in terms of the vote count.

May

After her cabinet ministers spent the weekend pushing back against reports that they were already laying the groundwork for a second referendum, or at least a series of informal “indicative” votes about alternatives to May’s deal, May has returned to her position that it’s either her deal, or no deal. She also reiterated that EU leaders do not want to use the backstop – implying that Parliament should set aside its concerns about take the Europeans at their word.

Following reports that Labour would call for a vote of no confidence in May’s government if she didn’t immediately call for a vote on her Brexit deal – reports that Labour later walked back, saying they would hold off so long as May set a date for a vote – May warned MPs that they shouldn’t help Corbyn trigger another general election, which she said would not be “in the national interest” since it would only create more chaos. She also decried Corbyn’s claims that Parliament could win a better deal by voting down May’s plan as a “fiction”.

May added that it wouldn’t be right to extend the Article 50 deadline. And though May has said she wouldn’t support another referendum, polls have shown that UK voters would likely opt to remain if they were given another shot at the vote.

May

In other words, May is right back where she started this month, meaning virtually no progress has been made toward achieving a deal over the past three weeks. Or, as Corbyn put it in his response to May’s remarks, the prime minister has reverted to her plan of running down the clock to Brexit Day, hoping to leave MPs with a stark choice between her deal and no deal. He also accused May of leading a “shambolic” negotiating process that has done little but waste time, something that, we imagine, a growing number of MPs would agree with.

end

FRANCE

France in turmoil over the weekend as pepper spray was used on protesting yellow vests.  Also bare breasted Mariannes began to face off with the French police

(courtesy zerohedge)

Bare-Breasted ‘Mariannes’ Face Off With French Police; Tear Gas, Pepper Spray Used On Protesting Yellow Vests

Week five of Yellow Vest demonstrations turned violent after protesters in Paris began to scuffle with police.

Just under 70,000 police have been mobilized across France in an effort to contain some 33,500 estimated protesters – a much lower turnout than in previous weeks, while the Yellow Vest movement itself has spread to several countries across Europe, as well as Iraq, Israel and even Canada.

Less than 3,000 protesters descended on Paris so far on Saturday, compared to 8,000 or so last week. Of those, 114 people had been detained in the capital – around 20% of last week’s figure.

Police used tear gas and pepper spray on protesters in the center of Paris on Saturday. One person was reportedly hurt in the head during clashes at Champs-Élysées. A correspondent with Russian state-owned media outlet RT suffered an injury to the face and was taken to the hospital.

Маргарита Симоньян

@M_Simonyan

Нашего корра на протестах во Франции ранили в лицо. Она поехала в больницу.

1

290 people are talking about this

Meanwhile, in stark contrast to the bright yellow vests worn by most protesters – a group of half-naked women posing as Marianne, the Goddess of Liberty and a symbol of French patriotism, have faced off with police in Paris.

Donning blood-red hoodies and coated in silver paint, the women paid homage to the French revolutionary hero on Champs-Élysées avenue on Saturday in a silent demonstration.

Seven people in total have died during the Yellow Vest demonstrations, which has gone from a fuel tax protest to an anti-government movement.

“Last time, we were here for taxes,” said 28-year-old called Jeremy told the AFP news agency.

“This is for the institutions – we want more direct democracy,” he said, adding that people needed to “shout to make themselves heard”.

Some museums are closed, but both the Louvre and the Eiffel Tower remain open.

In Calais, a group of “yellow vests” blocked the access road to the port. –BBC

Meanwhile, an Anonymous Sith yellow vest brought his double-lightsaber:

end
Macron admits that he made mistakes:  mainly not listening to his people…the movement now spreads to Israel,Belgium,  Canada and the Netherlands
(courtesy zerohedge)

“We Made Mistakes”: France Changes Tone On Yellow Vests As Movement Hits Canada

The Macron government has changed its tone after five straight weeks of violent “Yellow Vest” demonstrations across the country.

On Sunday Prime Minister Édouard Philippe admitted to Les Echoes newspaper that mistakes were made in the handling of the protests, and that a dialogue is needed.

We made mistakes. We did not listen enough to the French people. I remain convinced that they want this country to be transformed,” said Philippe.

Protesters donning yellow reflective jackets began filling the streets across France on November 17 – initially in protest to a fuel tax aimed at combating global warming – and morphing into a country-wide rebuke of the Macron government.  There have been seven deaths, over 4,500 arrests and hundreds of injuries during the demonstrations – as protesters smashed store windows, looted, set fire to vehicles and defaced statues. In addition to a massive presence, Police have responded to the protests with tear gas and pepper spray to try and disperse crowds.

In early December Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire called the economic impact of the protests a “catastrophe,”

Meanwhile, the Yellow Vest protests have spread to multiple European countries – most notably the Netherlands and Belgium, while also spreading to Israel, Iraq and now Canada.

Yellow Vest protesters and counter-protesters were seen last weekend in several Canadian cities, including Toronto, Calgary, Halifax, Edmonton, Saskatoon and Moncton.

“I have never met even one Canadian that understands how a carbon tax is going to reduce carbon emissions,” said protester James Hoskins to CTV Atlantic. Another Canadian Yellow Vest, Barry Ahern, called Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s summer grant program “oppression of Canadians by our own people.” The program has been criticized for requiring organizations applying for summer job grants to sign an “attestation” confirming that they respect LGBT and abortion rights.

In Calgary, a large rally began outside the downtown Kerby Centre, with protester Craig Chandler telling CTV Calgary that people were upset over pipelines and Trudeau’s leadership in general.

Ever since France has been doing it, everybody wants to do it, “ said Chandler, a member of the Progressive Group for Independent Business, who also called out Calgary Centre MP Kent Hehr.

“We want to know from our MP why he’s done nothing on the pipeline problem, why he’s done nothing on oil and gas when he represents oil and gas,” Chandler said. “We want to know why Quebec is getting $13 billion in transfer payments when we’re hurting.”

Hehr acknowledged the difficulties in the city but stressed his government’s commitment to some pipeline construction — including the Trans Mountain expansion.

“There is no doubt that we want to ensure that when Alberta does well, Canada does well,” he said. –CTV News

Canadians in Toronto voiced their frustration over carbon taxes and immigration, while in Edmonton there were tensions between Yellow Vests and counter-protesters as hundreds assembled at the Alberta Legislature.

“I’m tired of Trudeau basically doing what he wants with our money and sending it overseas,” said Yellow Vest protester who goes by the name Turk. “Right now, personally, I’m facing a job crisis. All our oil jobs are gone, all our money is going south.”

Belgium
And now we have riots in Belgium..as they are all rioting against higher taxation and anti migration.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Belgium Police Fire Tear Gas, Water Cannon As Anti-Migration Protests Turn Violent

The streets of Brussels turned violent on Sunday after thousands of Flemish right-wing parties called for a march against a UN migration pact signed in Marrakech last week, according to the BBC.

Approximately 5,500 anti-immigration protesters came out in force against the pact- chanting various slogans such as “our people first” , “no jihad in our state” and “Brussels rats,” while around 1,000 counter-protesters from left-wing groups showed up to oppose the march. Police fired tear gas and a water cannon as violence broke out between the groups, throwing fences and stones.

Embedded video

Oom Ashii@AshiiK11

Chaos in EU’s capital .

Massive protests have erupted in Brussels against adoption of . Signing of this compact means Belgium has been sold to Globalists.

Protestors have been beaten and arrested.

The pact, signed last week by 164 countries – however it was rejected by the United States and several European countries including Austria, Hungary, Italy, Poland and Slovakia – which refused to formally adopt the agreement.

The deal, which is not legally binding, seeks an international approach to migration that “reaffirms the sovereign rights of states to determine their national migration policy” and asserts the “fundamental” importance of legal migration.

But critics in Europe believe it will lead to increased immigration to the continent. –BBC

Embedded video

ITV News

@itvnews

Police use tear gas and water cannons on anti-immigration protesters outside the EU’s headquarters in Brussels https://www.itv.com/news/2018-12-16/police-and-anti-migration-protesters-clash-at-eu-headquarters/ 

Embedded video

Oom Ashii@AshiiK11

Rally against at EU headquarters in has turned chaotic. Huge outrage over signing of by Belgian leaders despite there being a massive opposition in Belgium, against the treaty.

Embedded video

Céderic@Cederic_V

approximately 5.500 protesters march against without violence.
Riots broke out AFTERWARDS and should not be associated with the march.

Approximately 90 people were arrested. Towards the end of the speeches, VTM News journalist Hannelore Simoens claimed to have been attacked by demonstrators who threw smoke bombs and shouted curses at she and her camera crew. Video of the incident suggests otherwise.

Embedded video

Dries Van Langenhove@DVanLangenhove

VTM zegt dat ze werden “aangevallen” en spreekt van “geduw en getrek”. Deze beelden van een opmerkzame betoger bewijzen dat dit Fake News is. Delen!

According to freelance journalist Sotiri Dimpinoudis, the demonstrators were “smashing every window.”

Sotiri Dimpinoudis@sotiridi

Sotiri Dimpinoudis@sotiridi

: Protestors are smashing every window of the European Commission building they can see in their path! To protest against the Migration Pact of in ! pic.twitter.com/v8QG1fSjDq

Embedded video

Jack Posobiec ⭐️⭐️⭐️

@JackPosobiec

Brussels

end

Daniel Lacalle states that the ECB’s problem has never been a lack of stimulus..but an excess of stimuli.

He outlines why!

(courtesy Daniel Lacalle)

The ECB’s Quantitative Easing Failure

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The main reason why the ECB quantitative easing program has failed is that it started from a wrong diagnosis of the eurozone’s problem. That the European problem was a demand and liquidity issue, not due to years of excess.

The ECB had been receiving tremendous pressure from banks and governments to implement a similar program to the US’ quantitative easing, forgetting that the eurozone had been under a chain of government stimuli since 2009 and that the problem of the euro-zone was not liquidity, but an interventionist model.

The day that the ECB launched its quantitative easing program, excess liquidity stood at 125 billion euro. Since then it has ballooned to 1.8 trillion euro.

“Only” after 2.6 trillion euro purchase program and ultra-low rates:

1. Eurozone PMIs are atrocious. The euro-zone index falls from 52.7 in November to 51.3 in December, well below the consensus forecast of 52.8. More importantly, France’s PMI plummeted from 54.2 in November to a 34-month low of 49.3.

2. Unemployment in the euro-zone, at 8%, is double that of the US and comparable economies. Youth unemployment rate remains at 15%.

3. Economic surprise has plummeted as the ECB balance sheet reached 41% of GDP (vs 21% of the Fed).

4. More than 900 billion euro of non-performing loans remain in the banking system, which keeps a trillion euro timebomb in its balance sheets (read). A figure that represents 5.1% of total loans compared to 1.5% in the US or Japan.

5. Deficit spending is rising. Government debt to GDP has risen to 86.8%.

6. The number of zombie companies -those that cannot pay interest expenses with operating profits- has soared to more than 9% of all large quoted firms, according to the BIS.

7. Sovereign states have saved around one trillion euro in interest expenses, but have spent all those savings. Today, almost no eurozone country can absorb a modest rise in interest rates, and Italy, Spain, France, Portugal, Slovenia, and others are demanding more spending and more deficits.

8. There is no real secondary market demand for eurozone sovereign bonds at these yields. At the peak of its quantitative easing program, the Federal Reserve was never the sole buyer of Treasuries. There was always a relative secondary market. In the Eurozone, the ECB has been 7 seven times the net issuances of sovereigns. No investor is likely to buy eurozone sovereign bonds at these yields once the ECB steps down.

9. Eurozone growth and inflation estimates have been revised down again in December. Industrial production has fallen sharply.

10. Trichet, the ECB’s predecessor to Mario Draghi, had lowered interest rates from 5% to 1%, injected billions into the economy, buying sovereign bonds in 2011.

What has the ECB been successful at?

  • Keeping the euro alive. Not a small success, by the way. The risk of break-up has been contained but not eliminated.
  • Maintaining government spending at low rates. However, at the expense of savers and salaries.
  • Generating asense of euphoria in financial markets, with high yield and sovereign bonds soaring.
  • Wages in the euro-zone have increased below inflation since QE launched and into the third quarter of 2018. In fact, low inflation has been the biggest unintended success of the ECB. It could have been worse.
  • The biggest “success” of the ECB has been the massive bailout of governments at the expense of savers.

(Courtesy Pictet)

We also have to agree that Mario Draghi has been reminding governments that they needed to implement structural reforms, use the period of low rates to deleverage and repeating constantly that monetary policy will not work without reforms. No one listened. It was party time, and cheap money attracts bad decisions.

A Never-Ending Government Stimulus

With public spending averaging over 46% of GDP, an annual deficit of over 1.7% on average, and 86% debt, talking about austerity is like eating a box of cakes and calling it “diet”.

The tax burden in this period has been raised throughout the EU (with honorable exceptions, such as Ireland) with an average tax wedge of 45% for workers and 40% on companies.

The United States, at the peak of the crisis, spent 43% of GDP (the EU, 50%) and dropped it to 34%, and that with 21% of the budget in 2009 dedicated to defense.

The EU has been a Keynesian stimulus machine before, through and after the crisis.

1) A massive stimulus in 2008 in a “growth and employment plan”. A stimulus of 1.5% of GDP to create “millions of jobs in infrastructure, civil works, interconnections and strategic sectors”. 4.5 million jobs were destroyed and the deficit nearly doubled.

Between 2001 and 2008, money supply in the euro-zone doubled.

2) Two massive sovereign bond repurchase programs with Trichet as ECB President, interest rates down from 4.25% to 1% since 2008. Poor Trichet. Trichet purchased more than 115 billion euros in sovereign bonds.

3) An additional mega stimulus from the ECB, in addition to the TLTRO liquidity programs with Draghi, which has taken sovereign bonds to the lowest yields in history and purchased almost 20% of the total debt of some major states.

The problem of the European Union has never been a lack of stimuli, but an excess of them.

As government expenditure and unproductive investments multiplied, overcapacity remains at levels of 20% and the constant errors of interventionism leave the euro-zone after the biggest monetary experiment in its history with the same high tax wedge and obstacles to the productive sectors.

The end of the ECB QE leaves the euro-zone in a weaker position than it was in 2011. Because fiscal space has been exhausted and the ECB, with its balance sheet at 41% of the euro-zone GDP and ultra-low interest rates, has also exhausted its monetary tools.

The end of QE does not just show the failure of the ECB’s policy. It highlights the failure of governments’ economic policies.

Governments should implement growth-oriented reforms lowering taxes and attracting capital. Many will not. Most will likely decide, again, that they need to spend more. Fail, repeat.

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN

AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/USA

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

MALAYSIA/GOLDMAN SACHS

This could be far reaching:  Malaysia files a criminal fraud charge against USA Goldman Sachs and this may be followed by the uSA

(courtesy zerohedge)_

Malaysia Files Criminal Fraud Charges Against Goldman Sachs

In an unprecedented move that possibly foreshadows similar charges from the US DOJ – and lots of headaches for the “recently retired” Lloyd Blankfein – the Malaysian attorney general has filed criminal charges against Goldman Sachs – targeting two of the investment bank’s Asian subsidiaries and two former Goldman bankers who have already been charged by the US (former Southeast Asia head Tim Leissner and banker Roger Ng) and accusing the investment bank of violating the country’s securities laws by lying in bond agreements for three deals that raised $6.5 billion for 1MDB, aMalaysian sovereign wealth fund formed under former Prime Minister Najib Razak that US authorities believe was looted for upwards of $4 billion by corrupt bankers and officials.

While authorities in Singapore, Switzerland and elsewhere had already filed criminal charges against various banks involved with the scandal last year, the first charges against Goldman and its employees over their involvement in the scandal materialized two months ago when the DOJ indicted Leissner and Ng.

Just before 8 am ET, Goldman shares trading premarket had dropped 1.75% to new two-year lows:

Goldman

Shortly after the indictments, media reports revealed that senior Goldman executives – most notably, former CEO Lloyd Blankfein – were involved with the transactions.Blankfein attended at least three meetings with either Razak or disgraced Malaysian financier Jho Low, the allegedly corrupt financier who was also indicted by Malaysian authorities on Monday, even inviting Low to a private sit down at Goldman’s 200 West Street headquarters. While pursuing the deal, Goldman employees – including Blankfein – brushed aside concerns raised by the bank’s compliance department, and allowed Low to function as an unofficial intermediary between the bank and the Malaysian government, despite the bank’s compliance department warning that Low was not to be trusted. The DOJ is also reportedly looking into the role of other senior Goldman bankers.

Goldman

The charges followed reports over the weekend claiming that former senior Goldman employees believe 1MDB could tarnish Blankfein’s legacy for reviving the bank’s reputation following a massive 2010 settlement for abuses related to its sales of mortgage bonds before the financial crisis. Commenting on the 1MDB deals, one executive said “something doesn’t smell right” and questioned how they managed to get past compliance.

“We believe these charges are misdirected, will vigorously defend them and look forward to the opportunity to present our case. The firm continues to cooperate with all authorities investigating these matters,”Goldman said in a statement to the Wall Street Journal.

In a statement to the Financial Times, Tommy Thomas, Malaysia’s attorney-general, alleged in a statement that Goldman received $600 million in fees for its role, a total that was “several times higher than the prevailing market rates and industry norms.” Malaysia is demanding that Goldman forfeit all of the fees it was paid by the Malaysian government (which were paid at a higher-than-market rate to reflect certain “risks” related to the deal), as well as additional punitive money. While the DOJ has alleged that some $4.5 billion was stolen from 1MDB, Malaysian authorities are targeting $2.7 billion.

“Malaysia considers the allegations in the charges against the accused to be grave violations of our securities laws, and to reflect their severity, prosecutors will seek criminal fines against the accused well in excess of the $2.7 billion misappropriated from the bonds proceeds and $600 million in fees received by Goldman Sachs, and custodial sentences against each of the individual accused: the maximum term of imprisonment being 10 years,” the attorney general’s statement said.

Malaysia’s indictment alleged that statements in Goldman’s bond-sale documents were “false and misleading,” and that the Goldman employees who were involved personally profited and benefited from the deals.

Malaysia said the offering circulars and private placement memorandum issued by Goldman for the three bonds contained statements which were “false, misleading, or from which there were material omissions” because they said proceeds of the bonds would be used for legitimate purposes.

“Offering circulars and private placement memorandum are serious documents, intended to be relied on, and, in fact, were relied on, by purchasers of the bonds,” it said..

Malaysia said the accused structured the bond issues for “ostensibly legitimate purposes when they knew that the proceeds thereof would be misappropriated and fraudulently diverted”.

“In addition to personally receiving part of the misappropriated bond funds, those employees and directors of Goldman Sachs received large bonuses and enhanced career prospects at Goldman Sachs and in the investment banking industry generally,” the attorney-general’s office alleged.

Already the 1MDB controversy has inspired some Goldman clients to cut ties with the bank, particularly among the sovereign wealth fund set, which the bank had targeted as a “key growth area.” One Abu Dhabi fund has sued Goldman over unspecified damages related to 1MDB.

Goldman executives who have so far evaded prosecution now have another reason to be anxious, because even if they avoid scrutiny by the DOJ, the US does have an extradition treaty with Malaysia.

This holiday season, 1MDB has truly become the gift that keeps on giving for Blankfein.

end
Same story: Associated press
and special thanks to G for sending this to us

Malaysia files criminal charges against Goldman Sachs executives including Kimora Lee Simmons’ husband for looting of its sovereign wealth fund to buy gifts for celebrities including a transparent piano, artwork and a yacht

  • Malaysia brought charges against Roger Ng Chong Hwa and Tim Leissner in addition to Goldman Sachs on Monday 
  • Hwa and Leissner, who is married to Kimora Lee Simmons, are accused of stealing billions from the country 
  • They allegedly worked with former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak and his associate Low Taek Jho
  • Leissner already pleaded guilty in US court and has agreed to forfeit $43million
  • It remains unclear if he will be given jail time and he is believed to be providing information on the rest of the company
  • Roger Ng Chong Hwa is in custody in Kuala Lumpur awaiting extradition to the US 
  • Low Taek Jho is a fugitive and has protested his innocence through his lawyer

By ASSOCIATED PRESS and JENNIFER SMITH FOR DAILYMAIL.COM

PUBLISHED: 09:46 GMT, 17 December 2018 UPDATED: 18:45 GMT, 17 December 2018

 

Malaysia filed criminal charges against Goldman Sachs and two former executives on Monday for their role in the alleged multibillion-dollar ransacking of state investment fund 1MDB.

Attorney General Tommy Thomas said the government is seeking several billion dollars in fines from Goldman Sachs for breaches of securities laws that involved it making false and misleading statements to investors.

He said his office will seek prison sentences of up to 10 years for the former Goldman executives, Roger Ng Chong Hwa and Tim Leissner, who is married to model Kimora Lee Simmons.

Malaysian and U.S. prosecutors allege that bond sales organized by Goldman Sachs for 1MDB provided one of the means for associates of former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak to steal billions over several years from a fund that was ostensibly set up to accelerate Malaysia’s economic development.

Tim Leissner, pictured with hi wife Kimora Lee Simmons, is facing up to 10 years in prison in the US and in Malaysia and has agreed to pay $43million in fines already for his role in the theft 

Tim Leissner, pictured with hi wife Kimora Lee Simmons, is facing up to 10 years in prison in the US and in Malaysia and has agreed to pay $43million in fines already for his role in the theft

The scandal, first reported by Sarawak Report and the Wall Street Journal, resulted in Najib and his ruling coalition losing power in a historic election defeat earlier this year.

Najib himself is facing corruption charges. He has said that more than $700 million that moved through his bank account was a political donation from the Saudi royal family, but U.S. prosecutors say it came from 1MDB, of which Najib was the top official.

U.S. legal filings that are part of a Justice Department civil case to recover assets bought with 1MDB funds allege the money was used to finance Hollywood films and spent on luxuries such as diamond jewelry for Najib’s wife, a yacht, artworks and high-end properties.

They used the money to shower celebrities including Leonardo di Caprio and Miranda Kerr with gifts and invest in films including The Wolf of Wall Street.

Among the items purchased with the money was a transparent piano that was gifted to supermodel Miranda Kerr. She offered to give it back along with jewelry she received and is cooperating with the authorities 

Among the items purchased with the money was a transparent piano that was gifted to supermodel Miranda Kerr. She offered to give it back along with jewelry she received and is cooperating with the authorities

The Equanimity yacht was also purchased by Jho using the stolen funds 

The Equanimity yacht was also purchased by Jho using the stolen funds

More than $200million was spent on artwork including Monet's Saint-Georges Majeur. They are fighting to recover all of the items which are dotted around the world 

More than $200million was spent on artwork including Monet’s Saint-Georges Majeur. They are fighting to recover all of the items which are dotted around the world

FBI seizes Jho Low’s $250m yacht named ‘Equanimity’ in February

Both di Caprio and Kerr have since returned the items they were gifted to authorities.

Goldman Sachs denied any wrongdoing in response to Malaysia’s criminal charges.

On the run: Jho Low is also wanted by authorities in the US and Malaysia. He showered celebrities in gifts that were purchased with the stolen money 

On the run: Jho Low is also wanted by authorities in the US and Malaysia. He showered celebrities in gifts that were purchased with the stolen money

‘We believe these charges are misdirected and we will vigorously defend them and look forward to the opportunity to present our case,’ bank spokesman Edward Naylor said in a statement. ‘The firm continues to cooperate with all authorities investigating these matters.’

Thomas, the Malaysian attorney general, said $2.7 billion was stolen from three bond sales organized by subsidiaries of Goldman Sachs. The investment bank, he said, received $600 million in fees for organizing the bond deals, which was several times higher than industry norms.

Leissner and Ng conspired with Najib associate Low Taek Jho, a key architect of the entire 1MDB fraud, to bribe Malaysian government officials to use Goldman Sachs as the arranger of the bond deals, according to Thomas. They and Goldman Sachs knew that the money would be stolen, he said.

‘Having held themselves out as the pre-eminent global adviser/arranger for bonds, the highest standards are expected of Goldman Sachs,’ the attorney general’s statement said. ‘They have fallen far short of any standard. In consequence, they have to be held accountable.’

Celebrity-loving Jho also used some of the money to invest in films including The Wolf of Wall Street and he gave Leonardo Di Caprio gifts too 

Celebrity-loving Jho also used some of the money to invest in films including The Wolf of Wall Street and he gave Leonardo Di Caprio gifts too

Prosecutors plan to seek fines ‘well in excess’ of the amount allegedly stolen because of the severity of the violations of Malaysia’s laws, Thomas said.

Leissner, who headed Goldman’s operations in Southeast Asia, pleaded guilty in the U.S. last month to money laundering conspiracy and conspiring to violate foreign bribery laws after the Justice Department charged him, Ng and Low in relation to the 1MDB scandal.

Former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak is facing corruption charges. He is pictured leaving court in September 

Former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak is facing corruption charges. He is pictured leaving court in September

Ng was arrested in Malaysia in early November and Low, also known as Jho Low, remains at large.

He has previously maintained his innocence in statements via a lawyer.

‘As has been stated previously, Mr. Low will not submit to any jurisdiction where guilt has been predetermined by politics and there is no independent legal process,’ a spokesperson for Low said in a statement on Monday.

‘It is clear that Mr. Low cannot get a fair trial in Malaysia, where the regime has proven numerous times that they have no interest in the rule of law.’

Malaysian police said in July that Low had fled Macau to an unknown destination.

Before facing criminal charges, Low became well known in the New York City and Los Angeles club scenes.

In 2012, he threw a lavish 31st birthday bash attended by Leonardo DiCaprio, Kim Kardashian and other celebrities.

end

 

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

Venezuela

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1343 UP .0038 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL RED

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 113.28  DOWN 0.077 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2622 UP   0.0048  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3383  UP .0009 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 38 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1343/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 4.23 POINTS OR 0.16%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 6.81 POINTS OR 0.03%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.95% /EUROPEAN BOURSES RED 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning CLOSED  UP 132.85 POINTS OR 0.62%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED RED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 6.81 POINTS OR 0.03% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.23  POINTS OR 0.16%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP  .95%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 132.85 POINTS OR 0.62%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1239.85

silver:$14.62

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.88% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.14 DOWN 0  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 97.24 DOWN 20 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.65% DOWN 2    in basis point(s) yield from FRIDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.04%  DOWN 0  BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.40% DOWN 0  IN basis point yield from FRIDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.96 UP 2     POINTS in basis point yield from FRIDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 155 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.26%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.70% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1341 UP  .0037 or 37 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 112.97 DOWN  0 .415 OR 42 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2600 DOWN .0027( POUND DOWN 27  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 14 basis points to 1.3389

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.8973-  ON SHORE  (YUAN UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8979(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.3736

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.04%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 2.87 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.13 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.20 DOWN 24 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 71.93 POINTS OR 1.05%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 93.57 POINTS  OR 0.86%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 53,83 POINTS OR 1.11%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 73.60 POINTS OR 0.53%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN: 217.34 POINTS OR 1.15%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 50.05 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 59.62 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    66.67  THE CROSS LOWER BY .19 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 19 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.3736 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.26 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :49.24

 

BREN:58.90

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.86%..

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.12%/.

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1345 ( UP 40 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.91 DOWN 0.554 (YEN UP 55 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.14 DOWN 30 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2613 UP 39 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.3737

the Russian rouble:  66.71 UP .15 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 15 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3414 DOWN 40 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8973  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.8983 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.26%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN 507.53 POINTS OR 2.11%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 156.93 POINTS OR 2.27%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  25.03 CLOSED UP 3.40 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.801%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/BIG RISE TODAY

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Stocks Slammed As Liquidations Accelerate; Bitcoin, Bonds, & Bullion Bid

“It’s an ol’ fashioned buyers’ strike” according to CNBC’s Bob Pisani.

But it’s the worst start to December since at least 1950, Bob?!

Most worryingly for the asset-gatherers and commission-takers, there is no capitulation… it’s death by a million fleshwounds…

..

Death by a million hedge fund liquidations…

 

 

*  *  *

China opened ugly overnight but a miracle bid appears to rescue markets into lunch…

 

Europe was ugly…

 

And US Futures show the real action today…a brief buying panic from the US open to EU close and then the liquidations began in size…

 

On the cash side, Trannies were the least shitty shirt in the laundry pile with Dow, S&P, Small Caps, and Nasdaq all glued together…

 

Nasdaq joined the rest of the US equity markets in the red for 2018…

 

Some Context:

  • Dow -12.7% from highs (correction)
  • S&P -13.7% from highs (correction)
  • Nasdaq Composite -17.3% from highs (correction)
  • Dow Transports -19.4% from highs (correction)
  • Russell 2000 -20.6% from highs (bear market)

S&P’s lowest close since October 2017…taking out the intraday lows from February…

 

Banks were battered again…down 25% from their highs

 

But Goldman is leading the charge lower after 1MDB comes back to bite… (now back below Trump election levels) Goldman is down 40% from highs

 

FANG Stocks were slapped back to 4-week lows…down 27% from the highs… (AAPL is down 30% from its highs)

 

VIX term structure remains dramatically inverted and above 25 today…

 

Credit markets and equity protection blew higher today…

 

Treasury yields tumbled on the day, down around 3-4bps across the curve…

 

And if Equity cyclicals are right, bond yields have a long way to fall…

 

The front-end of the yield curve remains inverted and 2Y TSY-3M Libor is the most inverted since Trump’s election…

 

And the eurodollar curves are priced for uber-dovishness…

 

And the Treasury Bill curve has got significantly perturbed around the possible government shutdown…

 

The Dollar Index slipped lower  all day extending Friday’s losses…

 

Cryptocurrencies soared on the day – as we near the anniversary of Bitcoin’s peak one year ago…

 

With a weaker dollar and dovishness all around, PMs rallied as crude and copper crumbled…

 

WTI traded back below $50…and settled below $50 for the first time since Oct 2017.

 

Finally, we note that across asset-classes: The Dow, Gold, and The Long Bond are down around 4% year-to-date while the USD Index is up around 4% year-to-date…

And for those hoping for a dovish Jay Powell on Wednesday to lift stocks into year-end, be careful what you wish for – Eurodollar markets are already priced for max dovishness and stocks are trading with a notable premium over that…

Sell the news? Looks like they already are as the world’s largest stock index – the $23 trillion market cap NYSE Copmposite – has collapsed to its weakest since May 2017…

Q4 is not looking pretty…

 

END

market trading

this morning

the “king” has spoken.  Bond King Jeffrey Gundlach spooks the markets

(courtesy zerohedge)

“This Is A Bear Market” – Stocks Slump After Gundlach Unleashes Truth-Bombs On CNBC

A sheepish Scott Wapner dared to ask DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Gundlach an open-ended question about the stock market, and we suspect the response he got was far from what he wanted to hear.

“I’m pretty sure this is a long-term bear market for stocks…S&P is headed to new lows”

We’ve had pretty much all of the variables which characterize a bear market,

Other highlights from Gundlach include:

  • I think we’ll ratchet up tariffs
  • Short term, high quality bonds the way to go in 2019.
  • 2019 is all about Capital preservation.
  • Worst thing to do is herd into S&P passive fund.
  • Sees bond yields still moving higher on supply.
  • Mueller, House probes are a market negative.
  • Sees a weaker dollar ahead.

Doubleline’s Jeffery Gundlach: This is definitely a bear market from CNBC.

But from the moment Gundlach started dropping truth-bombs, the market was monkeyhammered…

 

All the major indices rolled over…

 

Additionally, Gundlach says the Federal Reserve shouldn’t raise interest rates when it meets this week, citing concerns about the bond market and expectations that a slowing economy may require policy reversals in 2020.

“I don’t think they should,” Gundlach said in the interview on CNBC. “The bond market is saying there’s no way the Fed should be raising interest rates.”

The Eurodollar curves are priced for extreme dovishness, but stocks for now remain hopeful that a dovish Powell will send stocks higher…

END

this afternoon:

Forced Fund Liquidations: Stocks Slammed By Barrage Of Massive Sell Programs

The US equity markets are being hit by an onslaught of significant sell programs today, suggesting forced fund liquidations.

The surge at around 1330ET was the 3rd biggest sell program of 2018 and with each new flush, stocks are making news lows…

As we noted previously, you are witnessing a massive culling of the hedge fund industry as hundreds of funds are liquidated and thousands more get sizable redemptions.Many of these funds own the same companies—the outcasts from the indexed world, the cheap, the unloved; the same stocks that many other hedge fund managers own. With the hedge fund industry going in reverse, there is suddenly no natural buyer for what must be sold. As a result, you are seeing waves of forced sell orders and few buyers (which for those so inclined, is creating good bargains all around).

However, do not be too concerned as CNBC’s Bob Pisani noted, “this is just an ol’ fashioned buyers’ strike.”

While they may be on strike, they are not shy about buying protection (VIX soared above 25)…

end

market data/

 

Even soft data is now coming in at horrifying levels.  Today the all important Empire mfg index   (New York mfg) plunges to almost 2 year lows

(courtesy zerohedge)

Empire Fed Plunges Most Since Brexit, Hits 19-Month Lows

Hope-filled ‘soft’ survey data is starting to collapse back to the reality of US ‘real’ economic data and Empire Fed’s plunge from 23.3 to 10.9 in December is the latest example.

Against expectations of a small drop to 20.0, Empire Fed printed a worse-than-all-economists-estimates 10.9 in December – its lowest since May 2017 and the biggest MoM drop since Brexit.

Prices Paid and New Orders tumbled but employment jumped to its highest on record??

Can The Fed ignore this shift in sentiment?

end
this is a very important data point:  homebuilder optimism collapses by monstrous amount. Just take a look at the devastation.
And remember that house building is a major component of GDP
(courtesy zerohedge)

Homebuilder Optimism Collapses

Upton Sinclair once noted: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

But at some point, as Mike Tyson opined “someone punches you in the face.”

And it appears from the latest NAHB Sentiment Index that homebuilders in America just got ‘punched in the face’.

For the second month in a row, homebuilder optimism crashed amid broad-based declines across sales, expectations and buyer traffic (down 4 to 56 and well below the 60 print expected) as hope begins to collapse back to the housing market’s reality…

Additionally, as Bloomberg notes, a gauge of the NAHB six-month sales outlook dropped to the lowest since March 2016 while a measure of current sales for single-family homes decreased to a three-year low. That suggests demand will remain soft as there’s still a shortage of affordably-priced listings, in addition to property values that have been outpacing wage gains.

Three of four geographic regions showed a decline, led by the Northeast, where sentiment plunged by the most since June 2010.

“We are hearing from builders that consumer demand exists, but that customers are hesitating to make a purchase because of rising home costs,” NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, a custom-home builder from Louisiana, said in a statement.

“However, recent declines in mortgage interest rates should help move the market forward in early 2019.”

All eyes on Powell once again.

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

Friday night, a judge in Texas ruled that Obamacare is unconstitutional after Trump eliminates the individual mandate.  No doubt that this will  be appealed right to the Supreme Court.  Trump is elated.

(courtesy zerohedge)

SWAMP STORIES

Judge Emmett Sullivan will not be happy with this.  The FBI disobeys the Judge and hands over a 302 summary of the Flynn interview 6 months after the original 302 was written up

stay tuned on this one…

(courtesy zerohedge)

FBI Disobeys Judge; Submits Ham-Handed “302” Summary Of Flynn Interview From Six Months Later

Days before retired Army Lt. Gen Michael Flynn was set to be sentenced, Judge Emmet G. Sullivan ordered the Justice Department to produce interview records from their meeting with the former National Security Adviser Mike Flynn amid a filing by Flynn’s legal team suggesting that he was pressured or tricked into lying by the FBI.

Flynn pleaded guilty to one count of lying about his contacts with then-Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak, wiretapped phone calls of which the FBI had seen transcripts. After FBI agents interviewed Flynn, they would have written up a summary of the meeting in a report known as a “302,” which is used by FBI agents to “report or summarize the interviews they conduct” with witnesses or suspects, and are typically filed within days of the interview.

The 302 sought by Judge Sullivan would undoubtedly shed light on the FBI’s thought process and conduct surrounding the Flynn interview – as it was reported in February that the agents interviewing him, Peter Strzok and Joe Pientka, did not think Flynn was lying.

Thus, Judge Sullivan’s demand for the 302 summary of Flynn’s interview would have likely cleared things up. Unfortunately, the Department of Justice just submitted a “302” interview of Strzok’s account of the Flynn interview – which was conducted six months after the fact.

Sean Davis

@seanmdav

Earlier this week, Judge Emmet G. Sullivan ordered DOJ to produce the FBI 302 of the FBI interview of Flynn. Those documents were just filed. There is no 302 of the interview. Instead, there’s a 302 of an interview of *Strzok* talking about the interview 6 months later.

View image on Twitter

Sean Davis

@seanmdav

The FBI 302 of the interview with Strzok about the Flynn interview, however, explicitly references a 302 written up about the Flynn interview by a redacted official, who is likely Joe Pientka. DOJ did not include that 302 in today’s filing.

Where is the original Flynn 302? pic.twitter.com/yRlkqOWhWp

View image on Twitter
881 people are talking about this

In June, Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC) suggested in an interview with The Hill that the Flynn 302 reports had possibly been tampered with.

Meadows, the leader of the conservative House Freedom Caucus and a close ally of President Trump’s, said he and other lawmakers are finding evidence of possible tampering, an allegation he previously made at a House hearing where Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz testified.

“I brought this up with the inspector general the other day.  Some of those key witness will be asked to appear before House Oversight,” he added.

The question about the FBI interview reports, he said, was “were they changed to change the outcome of prosecution decisions. I think they might have.” –The Hill

Paul Sperry@paulsperry_

BREAKING: IG Horowitz confirmed that he is investigating allegations that FBI officials “edited” agents’ 302 summary reports of interviews with witnesses and suspects in the 2016-2017 investigations (including Gen. Flynn)

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Techno Fog@Techno_Fog

Don’t do many predictions, but here goes: the Flynn 302 is a composite 302. The source materials were not just edited but deleted prior to Flynn’s prosecution.

There is precedent for this: Mueller’s #2 Weissmann destroyed 302s and drafts/notes.

Meanwhile, according to a sentencing memo filed Tuesday by Flynn’s attorneys, the FBI’s Andrew McCabe convinced Flynn not to have a lawyer present, and the FBI decided not to advise him of the penalties for lying. 

Flynn’s legal team argued earlier this week in a sentencing memorandum that while he maintains his guilty plea, he was “unguarded” during the January 24, 2017 interview.

TheLastRefuge@TheLastRefuge2

The Day before interviewing @GenFlynn Lisa Page and Peter Strzok are nervous and talking about their pre-planning with Andrew McCabe.

They were going to exploit their Flynn phone tap and the prior comments by VP-elect Mike Pence on 01/15.

 

 

Despite recommending no jail time in a filing last week due to his “significant” cooperation in the Mueller investigation, the special counsel pushed back on Flynn’s comments that he was “unguarded,” writing in a filing: “The defendant chose to make false statements about his communications with the Russian ambassador weeks before the FBI interview when he lied about that topic to the media, the incoming Vice President, and other members of the Presidential Transition Team,” adding “Nothing about the way the interview was arranged or conducted caused the defendant to make false statements to the FBI.

“The defendant agreed to meet with the FBI agents, without counsel, and answer their questions. His [Flynn’s] obligation to provide truthful information came with that agreement; it did not turn on the presence of counsel.”

end

Mueller destroyed Peter Strzok’s and Lisa Page’s text messages from their confiscated phones. Obstruction of Justice? ??? Also the OIG informs that he has uncovered 19,000 new emails most of which were between the two lovebirds.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Mueller Destroyed Messages From Peter Strzok’s iPhone; OIG Recovers 19,000 New “FBI Lovebird” Texts

The Justice Department’s internal watchdog revealed on Thursday that special counsel Robert Mueller’s office scrubbed all of the data from FBI agent Peter Strzok’s iPhone, while his FBI mistress Lisa Page’s phone had been scrubbed by a different department, according to a comprehensive report by the Office of the Inspector General (OIG) released on Thursday.

After Strzok was kicked off the special counsel investigation following the discovery of anti-Trump text messages between he and Page, his Mueller’s Records Officer scrubbed Strzok’s iPhone after determining “it contained no substantive text messages,” reports the Conservative Review‘s Jordan Schachtel. 

Jordan Schachtel

@JordanSchachtel

So Mueller’s team wiped ALL of the data off of Peter Strzok’s iPhone after determining “it contained no substantive text messages.” Given what we know about Strzok, this smells like quite the coverup. Time for Congress to step in?https://oig.justice.gov/reports/2018/i-2018-003523.pdf 

Mueller’s team was unable to locate Page’s iPhone, however the DOJ’s Justice Management Division (JMD) similarly scrubbed her phone – resetting it to factory settings.

Jordan Schachtel

@JordanSchachtel

I’m sure you’re all super shocked to find out that Lisa Page’s phone was also scrubbed

Razor@hale_razor

* Strzok texts he’ll “stop Trump”
* Strzok texts that NYT is upset about WaPo scoop.
* Strzok texts Page re “insurance policy”
* Mueller then smashes their phones with a virtual hammer.

Go on how you’re concerned about corruption, obstruction of justice, and collusion.

Julie Kelly@julie_kelly2

Short version: Mueller’s Office scrubbed clean both Strzok and Page’s phones. Reset to factory settings. SCO also didn’t know who handled Page’s device after she left in July 2017. SCO records officer said she doesn’t recall whether there were ANY texts on Strzok’s phone… https://twitter.com/JusticeOIG/status/1073233572205682688 

Meanwhile, the OIG recovered approximately newly found 19,000 Strzok-Page texts from their Galaxy S5 phones. The messages span a “gap” in text messages between December 15, 2016 and May 17, 2017.

OIG digital forensic examiners used forensic tools to recover thousands of text messages from these devices, including many outside the period of collection tool failure (December 15, 20 I 6 to May 17, 2017) and many that Strzok and Page had with persons other than each other. Approximately 9,311 text messages that were sent or received during the period of collection tool failure were recovered from Strzok’s S5 phone, of which approximately 8,358 were sent to or received from PageApproximately 10,760 text messages that were sent or received during the period of collection tool failure were recovered from Page’s S5 phone, of which approximately 9,717 were sent to or received from Strzok. Thus, many of the text messages recovered from Strzok’s S5 were also recovered from Page’s S5. However, some of the Strzok-Page text messages were only recovered from Strzok’s phone while others were only recovered from Page’s phone. -OIG Report

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Wow, 19,000 Texts between Lisa Page and her lover, Peter S of the FBI, in charge of the Russia Hoax, were just reported as being wiped clean and gone. Such a big story that will never be covered by the Fake News. Witch Hunt!

Thousands of text messages between Strzok and Page were recovered by the OIG, many indicating that both agents in charge of investigating Donald Trump absolutely hate him.

In August 2016, Strzok and Page discussed an “insurance policy” in the event that Trump won the election which many believe to be in reference to operation Crossfire Hurricane – the DOJ’s counterintelligence investigation into Trump and his campaign.

I want to believe the path you threw out for consideration in Andy’s office – that there’s no way he [Trump] gets elected – but I’m afraid we can’t take that risk.” wrote Strzok, adding “It’s like a life insurance policy in the unlikely event you die before you’re 40.”

In the home stretch of the 2016 US election, Strzok is fuming at Trump – texting Page: ” I am riled up. Trump is a f*cking idiot, is unable to provide a coherent answer.” He then texts “I CAN’T PULL AWAY, WHAT THE F*CK HAPPENED TO OUR COUNTRY (redacted)??!?!,” to which Page replies “I don’t know. But we’ll get it back.”

Shannon Bream

@ShannonBream

Strzok/Page texts 10/20/16

PS – I am riled up. Trump is a f*cking idiot, is unable to provide a coherent answer.

PS – I CAN’T PULL AWAY, WHAT THE F*CK HAPPENED TO OUR COUNTRY (redacted)??!?!

LP – I don’t know. But we’ll get it back. …

Shannon Bream

@ShannonBream

Strzok/Page texts

LP – And maybe you’re meant to stay where you are because you’re meant to protect the country from that menace. (links to NYT article)

PS – … I can protect our country at many levels, not sure if that helps

More than two years later, the anti-Trump FBI agents may not have gotten their country back – but the special counsel’s office continues to cast a shadow of doubt Trump’s legitimacy.

end
It looks like there is going to be a government shutdown as Trump is digging in; he wants his wall!
(courtesy zerohedge)

“No Wall In Any Form”: Govt Shutdown Odds Explode Amid Trump-Schumer Standoff

With a potential government shutdown just days away, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (NY) dug in on Sunday, telling Meet The Press that President Trump is “not going to get the wall in any form.”

Last Tuesday Trump, Schumer and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) clashed over Trump’s $5 billion demand for border wall funding in an awkwardly televised argument in the Oval Office, prompting Schumer to later declare on the Senate Floor: “I want to be crystal clear. There will be no additional appropriations to pay for the border wall. It’s done.

The New York Democrat echoed his comments on Meet The Press Sunday, telling host Chuck Todd that Trump doesn’t have the votes in the House or the Senate – saying that the president is having a “temper tantrum” over the wall.

Embedded video

Meet the Press

@MeetThePress

WATCH: @SenSchumer says we can’t let the president’s “temper tantrum” cause a government shutdown.

“They do not have the votes to pass the president’s proposal — $5 billion or whatever it is for the wall,” said Pelosi at a recent news conference. “So … if nothing is going to change in that regard, I don’t know why we just don’t proceed to keep government open so that people can be home for the holidays.”

Meanwhile, the odds of a shutdown spiked to 58% on PredictIt, nearly double what it was 24 hours ago.

Rep. Paul Mitchell (R-MI) thinks the odds are even higher. “The odds are 65/35 we’re shutting down. I’m not optimistic we’re going to see some kind of compromise on appropriations on Homeland Security,” said Mitchell, the freshman representative for the Republican leadership team. “I don’t see that they’re going to get done bickering.”

“Trump will get the blame, but he won’t care,” added an unnamed GOP lawmaker quoted by The Hill. “And the base will love him for it.”

Yesterday we reported that Republicans are growing frustrated with Trump’s holdout over funding the wall, after the president shockingly declared that he would be “proud” to take credit for a shutdown if he doesn’t get his wall.

“If we don’t get what we want, one way or the other … I will shut down the government. Absolutely,” said Trump during an awkward argument broadcast live. “I am proud to shut down the government for border security.

With the two sides at an impasse, it appears that the partial shutdown is a foregone conclusion unless someone blinks. 

There is no discernable plan. None that’s been disclosed,” said #2 Senate Republican John Cornyn of Texas. “Everybody’s looking to [Trump] for a signal about what he wants to do. So far, it’s not clear.”

The last time the government shut down in January, the GOP-controlled House was able to pass a short-term spending solution until February 16 – only to be blocked by Schumer and Democratic Senators because it did not have provisions for immigrants in the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program. 

end

This is interesting (and never told to the public at large), the FBI and the CIA told the Washington Post’s Miller that they doubted key allegations in the Steele dossier

(courtesy zerohedge)

FBI, CIA Told WaPo They Doubted Key Allegation In Steele Dossier

FBI and CIA sources told a Pulitzer Prize-winning Washington Post reporter that they didn’t believe a key claim contained in the “Steele Dossier,” the document the Obama FBI relied on to obtain a surveillance warrant on a member of the Trump campaign.

The Post‘s Greg Miller told an audience at an October event that the FBI and CIA did not believe that former longtime Trump attorney Michael Cohen visited Prague during the 2016 election to pay off Russia-linked hackers who stole emails from key Democrats, reports the Daily Caller‘s Chuck Ross.

“We’ve talked to sources at the FBI and the CIA and elsewhere — they don’t believe that ever happened,” said Miller during the October event which aired Saturday on C-SPAN.

We literally spent weeks and months trying to run down… there’s an assertion in there that Michael Cohen went to Prague to settle payments that were needed at the end of the campaign. We sent reporters to every hotel in Prague, to all over the place trying to – just to try to figure out if he was ever there, and came away empty. -Greg Miller

Ross notes that WaPo somehow failed to report this information, nor did Miller include this tidbit of narrative-killing information in his recent book, “The Apprentice: Trump, Russia, and the Subversion of American Democracy.”

Miller also admits that the dossier’s broad claims are more closely aligned with reality, but that the document breaks down once you focus on individual claims.

Steele, using Kremlin sources, claimed in his dossier that Cohen and three associates went to Prague in August 2016 to meet with Kremlin officials for the purpose of discussing “deniable cash payments” made in secret so as to cover up “Moscow’s secret liaison with the TRUMP team.”

Cohen’s alleged Prague visit captured attention largely because the former Trump fixer has vehemently denied it, and also because it would seem to be one of the easier claims in Steele’s 35-page report to validate or invalidate.

Debate over the salacious document was reignited when McClatchy reported April 15 that special counsel Robert Mueller had evidence Cohen visited Prague. No other news outlets have verified the reporting, and Cohen denied it at the time.

Cohen last denied the dossier’s allegations in late June, a period of time when he was gearing up to cooperate with prosecutors against President Donald Trump. Cohen served as a cooperating witness for prosecutors in both New York and the special counsel’s office. –Daily Caller

Cohen’s attorney and longtime Clinton pal Lanny Davis vehemently denied on August 22, one day after Cohen pleaded guilty in his New York case – that Cohen had never been to Prague, telling Bloomberg “Thirteen references to Mr. Cohen are false in the dossier, but he has never been to Prague in his life.”

end
SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
AND SPECIAL THANKS TO CHRIS POWELL OF GATA FOR SENDING THIS TO US:
Let us close out today with this important discussion with former Fed insider Danielle DiMartino Booth with Greg Hunter.
a must view..
(courtesy Booth./Greg hunter)

Sharp Decline Early in 2019 – Danielle DiMartino Booth

By Greg Hunter On December 15, 2018 In Market Analysis

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release)

Former Fed insider Danielle DiMartino Booth is not optimistic for a prosperous New Year in 2019. DiMartino Booth explains, “We could easily see a very sharp decline in the first quarter in economic output. We have had a lot of companies and firms do what we call ‘panic buying’ because of the potential raising of tariffs on Chinese goods from 10% to 25%. So, we had a lot of supply pulled forward. There is not a lot of demand on the other end of that for this tremendous inventory restocking cycle we just went through. Then companies are going to slam on the brakes and stop buying in the first quarter. That could really be detrimental to economic health. . . . If (Fed Head) Jay Powell sees the real economy slowing, then I believe he will pause this tightening campaign in early 2019.”

The other big problem DiMartino Booth points to is the staggering “$250 trillion in global debt.” Would it take a big recession to blow it all up? DiMartino contends, “You don’t need a lot to let the credit genie out of her bottle. When you are looking at $8.6 trillion in debt globally with negative interest rates, that means your runway is very, very short. You could set off a bomb . . . in the European banking system. It never cleaned up to the extent as American banks. The financial system is as interconnected as it was (in 2008) . . . and we don’t know how risk would play out. We do know that we are interconnected enough for a hiccup in one country to have global ramifications. . . . My fear is much more based in China as well as a United States economy that is clearly slowing at this point.”

The EU and Germany are also slowing down. This is happening when the European Central Bank (ECB) is starting to tighten monetary policy. DiMartino Booth says, “They (ECB) are going to stop expanding their balance sheet. They are the only buyer of Italian debt. Italy has the third largest sovereign bond market in the world. There a lot of things that could go wrong, just like what happened in 2007, 2008 and 2009 when the liquidity dries up. That is something too few people understand. 90% of assets in the world had a negative return in 2018. Why did the U.S. stock market avoid such a fate? I got two words for you–share buybacks. Liquidity. It all comes down to liquidity. If companies like General Electric are going to run into issues and have their bonds trade into junk territory . . . if we see more of these going into 2019, these are problems that cannot be resolved easily and neatly when we have the level of debt percolating around in the world today. You don’t know where the risk is going to land.”

What about a giant global debt forgiveness such as a debt jubilee? DiMartino Booth warns, “I am not so sure something like a debt jubilee, where all countries are supposed to hold hands and sing kumbaya, I don’t know that scenario necessarily unfolds. . . . The debt will not be forgiven willingly.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Danielle DiMartino Booth, founder of Quillintelligence.com.

Video Link

https://usawatchdog.com/sharp-decline-early-in-2019- danielle-dimartino-booth/#more-21256

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I WILL YOU ON TUESDAY
H

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