JAN 14/GOLD UP $1.65 TO $1290.95/SILVER IS UP ONE CENT TO $15.64/DOW DOWN 86 POINTS/NASDAQ DOWN 65 POINTS/ALIBABA WARNS OF SLOWING SALES IN CHINA/CANADIAN CONVICTED OF DRUG SMUGGLING IN CHINA HAS BEEN GIVEN THE DEATH PENALTY/FRANCE ENDURES ITS 9TH STRAIGHT WEEKEND OF TURMOIL/P.G AND E SEEKS BANKRUPTCY PROTECTION/BRANDON SMITH: YOU ESSENTIAL READING FOR TONIGHT/

 

 

 

GOLD: $1290.95 UP $1.65 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $15.64 UP 1 CENT (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1291.50

 

silver: $15.65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

JANUARY

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN CONTRACT: 8 NOTICE(S) FOR 800 OZ (0.0248 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  533 NOTICES FOR 525 OZ  (1.6578 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JANUARY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

29 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  145,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 615 for 3,075,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $3499:  UP 23

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3625 up   150 

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today 6/8

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,287.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/11/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 01/15/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 C JP MORGAN 6
737 C ADVANTAGE 8 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 8 8
MONTH TO DATE: 533

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN GOOD SIZED  1111 CONTRACTS FROM 188,825 UP TO 189,936 WITH FRIDAY’S  4 RISE  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 22 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

2272 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2272 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2272 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2272 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 11.36 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 4 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND

 21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

AND NOW: INITIALLY 5.455 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JANUARY: 26,126 CONTRACTS (FOR 9 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 26,126 CONTRACTS) OR 130.63 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2902 CONTRACTS OR 14.514 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN:  130.63 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 18.56% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           130.63    MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1111 WITH THE 4 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2272 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED: 3389 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 2272 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1111 OI COMEX CONTRACTSAND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 4 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.63 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .896 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 128% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JANUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 29 NOTICE(S) FOR 145,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ  AND NOW JANUARY AT  5.455 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 1939 CONTRACTS UP TO 479,784 WITH THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A RISE IN PRICE OF $2.30//FRIDAY’S TRADING)

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG  SIZED 5979 CONTRACTS:

 

FEBRUARY HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 5979 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 479,784. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7918 CONTRACTS: 1939 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5979 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN:  7918 CONTRACTS OR 791,800 OZ = 24.63 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS VERY STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ FRIDAY TO THE TUNE OF  $2.30??????????

 

 

 

 

FRIDAY, WE HAD 6128 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY : 73,384 CONTRACTS OR 7,338,400 OZ  OR 228.25 TONNES (9 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8153 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 228.25 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 228.25/2550 x 100% TONNES = 8.95% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     228.25  TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 1939 WITH THE GAIN IN PRICING ($2.30) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK FRIDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A VERY HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5979 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5979 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 7918 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5979 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 1939 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 30.01 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN OF $2.30 IN FRIDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX??????????

 

 

we had: notice(s) filed upon for 800 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $1.65 TODAY 

 

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   797.71 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 797.71 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT  TODAY:

 

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 1111 CONTRACTS from 188,825 UP TO 189,936  AND MOVING CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

2272 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2272 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1111 CONTRACTS TO THE 2272 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN  OF 3383  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 16.92 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER AND 5.455 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY..

 

 

RESULT: A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 4 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZE 2272 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 18.07 PTS OR 0.71% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 368.96 POINTS OR 1.38% /The Nikkei closed HOLIDAY / Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.03%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7656 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 51.10 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.91 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED /RED 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.7656 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7683: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/CHINA

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

 

 

i)CHINA/USA

This is interesting:  The Huawei executive arrested on espionage charges in Poland has been fired by the company as they supposedly had no knowledge of his criminal activity

( zerohedge)

II)CHINA //CANADA

You knew that this was coming.  The 70 yr friendship of Canada and China has now officially ended with China imposing the death penalty on a Canadian convicted of drug smuggling.  No doubt that this guy will be used as a pawn in freeing Meng. If anybody things that the uSA will have a trade deal, guess again.
( zerohedge)

iii)China, no doubt will be panicking as suddenly their capital outflows are soaring again.  This will be good for gold(courtesy zerohedge)

iv)The following is huge news:  Chinese giant Alibaba, the world’s largest retailer warns about slowing growth
(courtesy zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)FRANCE

Week NO 9: total turmoil as yellow vest battle riot police

( zerohedge)

ii)GERMANY

German business leaders blast Trump for Nordsteam 2 sanctions as they claim it is an attack on EU sovereignty.  And yet the uSA pays for a much greater share of NATO and defense of Europe than Germany.

( zerohedge)

iii)The three nightmare scenarios facing Europeans:

  1. Brexit
  2. Macron and the yellow vests
  3. Theresa May’s election

all three areas going against the neo-cons..

( Tom Luongo)

iv)An excellent commentary from Claudio Grass as he explains the shockwaves from the Yellow vest movement;  why it is occurring and why contagion is spreading to other parts of Europe

( Claudio Grass)

v)It is possible that on Tuesday’s vote, Theresa May could be removed as Corbyn is contemplating a non confidence vote

( zerohedge)

 

vi)Bill Blain explains the mess that the UK is in with respect to Brexit talks and the huge costs the country will endure if it leaves.  It also will endure huge costs if it stays in the union

( Bill Blain)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

i)TURKEY/USA/SYRIA/KURDS

Trump threatens to devastate Turkey economically if the Kurds are attacked. This sends the lira sliding

( zerohedge)

ii)Turkey dismisses Trump’s threat to devastate the Turkish economy

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

iii)Iran

Today one of Iran’s military cargo planes crashes killing 15.  Iran is desperate to obtain airplane spare parts as its passenger airline industry is in shambles.

zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

An excellent commentary from Tom Luongo on how the USA is losing influence around the globe

( Tom Luongo)

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

VENEZUELA

Pompeo calls for regime change in Venezuela after the “illegitimate” Maduro re election

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)A must read:

Mathew Lynn describes how Europe is tanking as industrial production has hit Germany and other European nations pretty hard.  Europe depends on exports to survive.  Europe is following China on a huge nosedive economically

( Mathew Lynn/London Telegraph/GATA)

 

ii)The Tocqueville letter written by John Hathaway describes the explosion of USA debt and how that will foretell the dollar’s eventual devaluation against gold

(Hathaway/GATA)

iii)Dollars are scarce around the world as the uSA sucks up all dollars to pay for their 1 trillion deficit.  Zimbabwe seeks a new currency to back their economy but cannot find one..maybe they can go back to using sea shells like they did in 600 BCE…( Bloomberg/GATA)

iv)The Bank of China will now executive payment in yuan on USA e commerce platforms. Another dagger into the heart of USA hegemony

( Reuters/GATA)

 

v)nobody believes that China only added 10 tonnes of gold to their official reserves.   Ronan explains what is behind the low amount of official gold announced.  Remember that China produces 432 tonnes of gold last year and sold none.  This gold must be included into official reserves and yet it is not.

( Ronan Manly/GATA)

 

vi)Newmont Mining buys out the ailing Goldcorp in a 10 billion dollar deal.  When you see gold deals like this and Barrick you know the end game is being played out.

(courtesy zerohedge)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

ii)Market data/

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Brandon Smith is one smart cookie and he must be followed.  He states quite categorically that the uSA will continue to raise interest rates and crash the system.  The elites want a single global government and central bank and when this crashes, the iMF and the World Bank will come to the rescue of nations. Stock markets will fall especially around the middle of the month when the Fed cuts its balance sheet the most.  Main street (as we have shown to you) has been collapsing since 2018..the stock market which is a lagging indicator will collapse this year.

a must read…

Brandon Smith

b)P G and E is reportedly planning to announce bankruptcy protection, this morning.

( zerohedge)

c)this is going to be very costly to Californians:  P g and E shares crash by 50% as its CEO quits ahead of bankruptcy filing

( zerohedge)

d)Gundlach explains the real deficit of the uSA at 1.3 trillion.  He also is sounding the alarm bell over the huge $122 trillion in unfunded liabilities.  I think he is low on this front..others have pegged the unfunded liabilities in the uSA at over 225 trillion dollars

( zerohedge)

e)this should hurt the USA first quarter GDP: a massive winter buries the eastrn section of the uSA

( zerohedge)

f)In prepared remarks William Barr wants Mueller to finish his Russian probe and then have the public see that report

( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Not really a surprise here:  Trump goes on a tweetstorm after the New York Times reveals that the FBI went on an escalated witch hunt on Trump with respect to Russian collusion immediately after Comey was fired.

( zerohedge)

b)The FBI ramped up the “witch hunt’ knowing full well that the Russian collusion investigation was a total joke
( zerohedge)
E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN  ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 1939 CONTRACTS UP TO A LEVEL OF 479,784 WITH THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($2.30) IN FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5979 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR FEBRUARY:  5979 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5979 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  7918 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5979 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 1939 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7918 contracts OR 791,800  OZ OR 24.63 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of JANUARY and here the open interest stands at 59 contracts as we LOST 37 contracts. We had 45 notices filed on yesterday so we gained 8 contracts or 800 ADDITIONAL oz will stand for delivery as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negate a fiat bonus.

 

 

The next active delivery month is February and here the OI lost by 12,658 contracts DOWN to 252,306 contracts.  After February, March GAINED 54 contracts to stand at 587.  After March, the next big delivery month is April and here the OI rose by 10,828 contracts up to 137,017 contracts.

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE  January 2018 contract month

 

 

ON JANUARY 1/2018: 1.297 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY  (Jan 1 2019 initial standing 1.306 tonnes)

EVENTUALLY ON JAN 31.2018: 2.17 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY AS QUEUE JUMPING STARTED IN EARNEST AT THE GOLD COMEX

 

 

WE HAD 8 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 800 OZ. (0..0248 tonnes)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED  1111  CONTRACTS FROM 188,825 UP TO 189,936 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED DESPITE A 4 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY AND THE  AMOUNT OF OPEN INTEREST READY TO STAND IS 505 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST  111 CONTRACTS FROM YESTERDAY.  WE HAD 142 NOTICES FILED ON YESTERDAY, SO WE GAINED 31 CONTRACTS OR  155,000 ADDITIONAL OZ OF SILVER WILL  STAND FOR SILVER AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO  MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. QUEUE JUMPING IS THE NORM AT THE SILVER COMEX AS THE DEALERS SCRAMBLE FOR WHATEVER PHYSICAL THEY CAN OBTAIN.

 

 

 

THE NEXT NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS FEBRUARY AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 23 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 452. AFTER FEBRUARY IS THE VERY BIG AND ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 1109 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 142,992 CONTRACTS.

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 3383 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  1111 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2272 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  3383 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 4 CENT RISE IN PRICING// FRIDAY

 

 

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH AND JANUARY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE JAN 1/2018 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD A GOOD 2.695 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY’

AT THE CONCLUSION OF JAN/2018 WE HAD 3.650 MILLION OZ STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NORM FOR SILVER

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 29 notice(s) filed for 145,000 OZ for the FEB, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  227,749 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  263,923  contracts

volumes at the comex for both gold and silver are much less than usual.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JAN/GOLD

JAN 14/2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
4500.78 oz
scotia
140 KILOBARS
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

NIL

 

OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
8 notice(s)
 800 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
51 contracts
(5100 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
533 notices
53300 OZ
1.6578 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

 

total gold customer deposits;  NIL oz

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Scotia:  4500.78 oz of gold was withdrawn from the customer account of Scotia

140 kilobars

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  4500.78 oz

 

we had 0  adjustments….

FOR THE DEC 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 8 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 6 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JANUARY/2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (533) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (59 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (8 x 100 oz per contract) equals 58,400 OZ OR 1.816 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON  active month of JANUARY

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (533 x 100 oz)  + {59)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (8 x 100 oz )which equals 58,400 oz standing OR 1.816 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of JANUARY.

Today we gained 8 contracts or an additional 800 oz will stand in this non active month of January

.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 23.105 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 1.816 TONNES STANDING FOR JANUARY

LAST MONTH WE HAVE 23.37 TONNES OF GOLD SUPPOSEDLY DELIVERED UPON BUT THIS AMOUNT OF GOLD DID NOT LEAVE THE REGISTERED GOLD CATEGORY AT THE COMEX.

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  742,826.824 oz or   23.105 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,421,624.013 oz 261.94 tonnes

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 92 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

JAN INITIAL standings/SILVER

JAN 14, 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,153,978.882oz
CNT
Brinks
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
598,412.860. oz
JPM
No of oz served today (contracts)
29
CONTRACT(S)
145,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
476 contracts
2,380,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 615 contracts

(3,075,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: 598,412.860  oz (4th day in a row/a big deposit)****

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 147.7 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.51% of all official comex silver. (147.7 million/293 million)

ii) into everybody else:  0

*** there is no valid reason for the cftc to allow JPMorgan which is the biggest short on the comex silver to acquire any amount of physical silver.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 598,412.860   oz

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i) Out of CNT: 55,730.710 oz
ii) Out of Brinks:  1,096,250.572  oz
iii)Out of Delaware:  1997.600 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals:  1,153,978.882   oz

 

we had 0 adjustment

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  84.818 million

total dealer + customer silver:  292.554 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JANUARY 2018. contract month is represented by 29 contract(s) FOR 145,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JAN., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 615 x 5,000 oz = 3,075,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (505) and the number of notices served upon today (29x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JANUARY/2018 contract month: 615(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN( 505) -number of notices served upon today (29)x 5000 oz equals 5,455,000 oz of silver standing for the JANUARY contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month. We gained 31 contracts or an additional 155,000 oz will  stand for delivery and these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  51,052 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 71,815 CONTRACTS… 

volumes at the comex now increasing for silver

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 71,815 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 355 million OZ  50.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -3.74% (JAN 14/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.41% to NAV (JAN 14 /2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.74%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.15/TRADING 12.68/DISCOUNT 3.54

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JAN 14/WITH GOLD UP 41.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH SILVER UP $6.00/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: a) A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .25 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES ETC b) A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY./INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY, A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN THE RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.78 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.25 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.65 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 3/2019/WITH GOLD UP $10.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 2.2019/WITH GOLD UP $3.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.20 STRANGELY A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $8.65: A MASSIVE 15.88 TONNES WAS ADDED INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 790.02 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $0.15: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.14 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $15.15: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.00 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.14 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.15 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.14 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $11.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $3.15 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 8.23 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC  17 WITH GOLD UP $10.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/SOMETHING IS BURNING…/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.32 TONNES

DEC 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

DEC 7/WITH GOLD UP $8.35/A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.51 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

DEC 6/WITH GOLD UP $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.25: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.30: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

 

 

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JAN 14/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 797.71 tonnes

*IN LAST 533 TRADING DAYS: 137.45 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 433 TRADING DAYS: A NET 22.55 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JAN 14/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 11/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 9/WITH SILVER  UP 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 313.632 MILLION OZ/???

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ

JAN 7/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.347 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ/

JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ

JAN 3/2019/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS A SMALL CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 118,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ/

JAN 2/2019/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 28/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AN ADDITION OF 94,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317,233

DEC 26/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ

DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.408 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/ INV. RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 751,000 OZ INTO THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.547 MILLION OZ/

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/

DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 939,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/.

DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY ESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 7/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.817 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ.

DEC 4/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ/

DEC 3/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.22 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV /INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ.

NOV 28/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 188,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ/

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.301 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.718 MILLION OZ/

 

 

JAN 11/2019:

 

Inventory 313.632 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.33/ and libor 6 month duration 2.86

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .53

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.61%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.02

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.41

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Where Will The “Pending” Financial Crisis Originate?

Case for a pending financial collapse is well grounded warns Rickards
– “Ticking time bomb” the Federal Reserve has created is set to go off…
– Economist warns U.S. high-yield debt, default of “junk bonds” could cause next crisis
– Systemic risk is “more dangerous than ever” as “entire system is larger than before”

– Protect wealth by allocating at least 10% of assets in physical gold and silver


Source: BofA Merrill Lynch via Marketwatch.com

from The Daily Reckoning:

The case for a pending financial collapse is well grounded. Financial crises occur on a regular basis including 1987, 1994, 1998, 2000, 2007-08.

That averages out to about once every five years for the past thirty years. There has not been a financial crisis for ten years so the world is overdue. It’s also the case that each crisis is bigger than the one before and requires more intervention by the central banks.

The reason has to do with the system scale. In complex dynamic systems such as capital markets, risk is an exponential function of system scale. Increasing market scale correlates with exponentially larger market collapses.

This means a market panic far larger than the Panic of 2008.

Today, systemic risk is more dangerous than ever because the entire system is larger than before.

Due to central bank intervention, total global debt has increased by about $150 trillion over the past 15 years. Too-big-to-fail banks are bigger than ever, have a larger percentage of the total assets of the banking system and have much larger derivatives books.

Each credit and liquidity crisis starts out differently and ends up the same. Each crisis begins with distress in a particular overborrowed sector and then spreads from sector to sector until the whole world is screaming, “I want my money back!”

First, one asset class has a surprise drop. The leveraged investors sell the sinking asset, but soon the asset is unwanted by anyone. Margin calls roll in. Investors then sell good assets to raise cash to meet the margin calls. This spreads the panic to banks and dealers who were not originally involved with the weak asset.

Soon the contagion spreads to all banks and assets, as everyone wants their money back all at once. Banks begin to fail, panic spreads and finally central banks step in to separate winners and losers and re-liquefy the system for the benefit of the winners.

Typically, small investors (and some bankrupt banks) get hurt the worst while the big banks get bailed out and live to fight another day.

That much panics have in common. What varies in financial panics is not how they end but how they begin. The 1987 crash started with computerized trading. The 1994 panic began in Mexico. The 1997–98 panic started in Asian emerging markets but soon spread to Russia and the big banks. The 2000 crash began with dot-coms. The 2008 panic was triggered by defaults in subprime mortgages.

The problem is that regulators are like generals fighting the last war. In 2008, the global financial crisis started in the U.S. mortgage market and spread quickly to the overleveraged banking sector.

Since then, mortgage lending standards have been tightened considerably and bank capital requirements have been raised steeply. Banks and mortgage lenders may be safer today, but the system is not. Risk has simply shifted.

What will trigger the next panic?

Prominent economist Carmen Reinhart says the place to watch is U.S. high-yield debt, aka “junk bonds.”

I’ve also raised the same argument. We’re facing a devastating wave of junk bond defaults. The next financial collapse will quite possibly come from junk bonds.

Let’s unpack this…

Since the great financial crisis, extremely low interest rates allowed the total number of highly speculative corporate bonds, or “junk bonds,” to rise about 60% — a record high. Many businesses became extremely leveraged as a result. Estimates put the total amount of junk bonds outstanding at about $3.7 trillion.

The danger is that when the next downturn comes, many corporations will be unable to service their debt. Defaults will spread throughout the system like a deadly contagion, and the damage will be enormous.

This is from a report by Mariarosa Verde, Moody’s senior credit officer:

This extended period of benign credit conditions has helped many weak, highly leveraged companies to avoid default… A number of very weak issuers are living on borrowed time while benign conditions last… These companies are poised to default when credit conditions eventually become more difficult… The record number of highly leveraged companies has set the stage for a particularly large wave of defaults when the next period of broad economic stress eventually arrives.

If default rates are only 10% — a conservative assumption — this corporate debt fiasco will be at least six times larger than the subprime losses in 2007-08.

Many investors will be caught completely unprepared. Once the tsunami hits, no one will be spared. The stock market is going to collapse in the face of rising credit losses and tightening credit conditions.

But corporate debt is not the only dagger hanging over the economy. Credit conditions have already begun to affect the real economy. Student loan losses are also skyrocketing. Losses are also soaring on subprime auto loans, which has put a lid on new car sales. As these losses ripple through the economy, mortgages and credit cards will be the next to feel the pinch.

Have we already seen the beginning of the next crisis? No one knows for sure, but the time to prepare is now. Once the market falls apart, it’ll be too late to act.

That’s why the time to buy gold is now, while it’s cheap. When you need it most, once the crisis hits, it’ll cost a fortune.

Both the panics of 1998 and 2008 began over a year before they reached the level of an acute global liquidity crisis.

Investors has ample time to reduce risky positions, increase cash and gold allocations and move to the sidelines until the crisis abated. At that point there were bargains galore for those with cash.

An investor with cash in 2008 could have preserved wealth during the crisis and nearly quadrupled his money since then by buying the Dow Jones index at 6,550 (even with the recent turmoil, today it’s still around 23,600).

Relatively few investors did this. Instead they suffered from “fear of missing out” as markets rose until the panic began. They persisted in the mistaken belief that they could “get out in time” if markets reversed, not realizing that reversals happen much faster than rallies. They held onto losing positions hoping they would “come back” (they did after 10 years) and so on.

Simple behavioral biases stand in the way of doing the right thing almost every time.

For now, it’s not clear which way things will break next. Volatility is back and markets are still in a precarious position. Fed chairman Jay Powell threw markets a bone last Friday when he basically said all rate hikes are off until further notice and that he’s willing to scale back QT “if needed.” Markets have naturally rallied since Powell’s remarks.

If you still need proof that today’s rigged markets still require support from the Fed, here it is. But it’s far from clear the next crisis can be avoided at this point.

You don’t want to be heavily exposed to these markets. It’s far better to get out too early than too late. You should not be the last to be get ready. Start now to decrease equity allocations and increase your allocations to cash and gold so you can weather the coming storm.

Preparation means 10% percent of your investible assets in gold or silver and another 30% in cash.

That allocation will preserve wealth and provide dry powder for bottom-fishing in the crisis to come.

Regards,

Jim Rickards

The Daily Reckoning offers constant trends and research driven facts on markets and gold. Sign up for the Daily Reckoning e-letter here

 

Watch Our Latest Video Updates On YouTube Here

 

News and Commentary

Stocks Fall, Bonds Climb as China Data Disappoints: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg.com)

May to Set Out EU Assurances to Try to Save Deal: Brexit Update (Bloomberg.com)

Gold prices edge higher on expectations of Fed pause (Reuters.com)

Gold Prices Aim Higher as Viacom Exits China, Souring Risk Appetite (DailyFX.com)

Goldman Predicts Gold Prices to Climb to Highest Since 2013 ($1,425 an ounce) (Bloomberg.com)

No Gold/Silver CoT Reports today due to U.S. Gov. Shutdown (GoldSeek.com)

4 Men Face Trial in Berlin for Giant Gold Coin Heist (Theepochtimes.com)

Swimming In An Ocean Of Debt: Gundlach Sounds The Alarm Over $122 Trillion In Unfunded Liabilities (Bloomberg.com)

The Next Eurozone Crisis Has Already Started (Telegraph.co.uk)

The Next American Car Recession Has Already Started (Bloomberg.com)

Cars Have Just Been Crushed: The US Auto Market Is Officially In Recession Again (ZeroHedge.com)

Yellow Vests: Shockwaves Felt Around The Continent (ClaudioGrass.ch)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

11 Jan: USD 1,298.80, GBP 1,012.91 & EUR 1,123.96 per ounce
10 Jan: USD 1,292.40, GBP 1,012.98 & EUR 1,121.54 per ounce
09 Jan: USD 1,281.30, GBP 1,006.41 & EUR 1,118.32 per ounce
08 Jan: USD 1,291.90, GBP 1,006.71 & EUR 1,121.62 per ounce
07 Jan: USD 1,291.50, GBP 1,013.83 & EUR 1,129.03 per ounce
04 Jan: USD 1,290.35, GBP 1,016.80 & EUR 1,131.24 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

11 Jan: USD 15.68, GBP 12.23 & EUR 13.60 per ounce
10 Jan: USD 15.70, GBP 12.33 & EUR 13.63 per ounce
09 Jan: USD 15.62, GBP 12.27 & EUR 13.64 per ounce
08 Jan: USD 15.64, GBP 12.24 & EUR 13.64 per ounce
07 Jan: USD 15.75, GBP 12.35 & EUR 13.77 per ounce
04 Jan: USD 15.70, GBP 12.40 & EUR 13.76 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Gold and Silver Prices To Rise To $1,650 and $30 By 2020? Video Update
– Gold Outlook 2019: Uncertainty Makes Gold A “Valuable Strategic Asset” – WGC
– Blackrock Say Gold Will Be A “Valuable Portfolio Hedge” In 2019
– Financial Advice In 2019: Own Gold To Hedge $250 Trillion Global Debt Bubble – GoldCore In Irish Times
– China Adds 320,000 Ounces To Gold Reserves – First Central Bank Purchase Since October 2016
– Gold At 6 Month High At $1,300 and All Time Record Highs In Australian Dollars Over $1,870
– Gold Hedges Stock Market Falls In 2018 – Gains 2.7% In Euros and 3.8% In Pounds
– Hope For Best In 2019 But Prepare For Worst by Increased Allocations to Gold and Silver – Outlook 2019 Podcast
– Prepare For Global Debt Bubble Collapse – Outlook 2019
– Happy Christmas From All The Team in GoldCore
– Gold Prices Likely To Go Higher In 2019 After 4% Gain In Q4 2018

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
 

* * *

GATA STORIES AS IT RELATES TO PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER

A must read:

Mathew Lynn describes how Europe is tanking as industrial production has hit Germany and other European nations pretty hard.  Europe depends on exports to survive.  Europe is following China on a huge nosedive economically

(courtesy Mathew Lynn/London Telegraph/GATA)

Matthew Lynn: Next eurozone crisis has begun and will lead to more money creation

 Section: 

The Next Eurozone Crisis Has Already Started

By Matthew Lynn
The Telegraph, London
Friday, January 11, 2019

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/01/11/next-eurozone-crisis-has…

Industrial output is in crashing. Retail sales have stagnated. Business confidence has dropped, and investment is heading south. A sharp slowdown might have been expected for Britain heading out of the European Union, America where the President is busily ripping up half a century worth of carefully constructed trade agreements, or China, which has been on a decade of wild, credit-fuelled growth. But the real slowdown is happening in the one place where few economists expected it. It is now painfully obvious that the eurozone is heading into a sharp recession.

… 

 

The numbers coming out of all its main economies, from Germany to France, Italy and Spain, are relentlessly bad. What does that mean? Far from winding up quantitative easing, the European Central Bank will be forced to step in with emergency measures to rescue a failing economy — but it may well prove too little, too late .2018 was meant to be the year when the eurozone consolidated its steady recovery, agreed on reforms to fix the flaws in the single currency, pressed forward with reforms to boost its competitiveness, and gave the rest of the world a lesson in balanced, sustainable growth. Over the past year, a ton of investors’ money has bought into the Euro-boom story. Steady recovery would drive voters away from populist parties, encourage reform, and create a virtuous circle of expansion and renewal.

The script has not quite worked out as planned, however. Today brought yet another wave of disappointing numbers. Italian industrial production was down 2.6 percent year on year. In Spain, industrial output was also down 2.6 percent, the fastest rate of contraction since May 2013. The day before, we learned that French industrial output was down by 1.3 percent in November, and Germany, which is meant to be the main engine of the continent, recorded a decline 1.9 percent for the month, as well as re-calculating October’s data to show a steeper drop than reported earlier.

The eurozone is now seeing a synchronised slowdown right across all its major economies. Germany looks certain to be in technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking output, and France and Italy will not be far behind. Spain, which had been growing faster than most of the continent, is slowing and so will the smaller economies. Add all that up, and it clear the whole continent is heading into a fresh downturn, even though employment and output have yet to recover their 2008 levels.

Sure, there are some special factors to explain that. German industry has been hit by the slowdown of its massive auto industry, and especially the re-tooling of factories to meet new diesel and regulatory standards. In France, the Gilets Jaunes protestors haven’t exactly helped: riots and boarded up shops are not the kind of thing that encourages people to go out and spend money, even in a county that is used to protests. Italy is engulfed in a political fight with Brussels over its budget policies and is suffering a fresh round of banking problems. Arguably, once those are overcome, growth will get back to normal.

Well, perhaps. The trouble is, those sound suspiciously like excuses. In fact, every economy always faces a few challenges, and the eurozone’s are no worse than anyone else’s. Indeed, they look relatively mild compared to many of its competitors. The UK has to contend with the chaos of Brexit, and the United States with rising interest rates, and rising protectionism. Even so, both are now growing faster.

In fact, there are two big weaknesses. First, led by Germany, the whole of Europe has allowed itself to become dangerously dependent on exports. The German trade surplus at more than 8 percent of GDP leaves that country brutally exposed to the cross-winds of global trade.

But it not just Germany. In 2017, the surplus for the zone as a whole hit a massive E345 billion, up from E207 billion five years earlier. The whole continent is hooked on exports. Talk of trade wars, a slowdown in China, and a hit to the emerging markets all mean the European economy suffers first from any slowdown (Brexit is hardly helping either, with Germany’s surplus with the UK already narrowing and likely to fall further). An export-led model is great when the global economy is expanding – but can turn against you very quickly.

Next, the euro remains a relentlessly deflationary currency that has ripped demand out of whole economies. With weakened banking systems, towering imbalances between the core and the periphery, puny wage growth, relentless austerity, and mass unemployment, it has proved itself over two decades incapable of generating any meaningful internal demand. Most countries can reflate their economies with consumer spending, easier credit, and a cheaper currency. The euro-zone can’t do any of that.

The fleeting recovery of the 2017 and early 2018 now looks to have been fuelled purely by the two trillion of freshly minted euros the ECB threw at the economy. It has proved incapable of creating a self-sustaining recovery. Th ECB was expected to start normalising policy this year, ending QE and raising interest rates. In the face of the latest data, a rise in rates can now be ruled out. The central bank is far more likely to have to start printing money again by the spring — but by then it may already be too late to pull the zone out of a slump.

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

The Tocqueville letter written by John Hathaway describes the explosion of USA debt and how that will foretell the dollar’s eventual devaluation against gold
(Hathaway/GATA)

Tocqueville gold letter: Explosion in U.S. debt foretells dollar’s devaluation against gold

 Section: 

10:48a ET Saturday, January 12, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In the Tocqueville gold letter for January, fund manager John Hathaway argues that the explosion of U.S. government debt to banana republic levels foretells a big devaluation of the dollar against gold. (Just don’t ask him why it hasn’t happened already.)

The letter is headlined “Tocqueville Gold Strategy Fourth Quarter 2018 Investor Letter” and it’s posted at the Tocqueville internet site here:

http://tocqueville.com/tocqueville-gold-strategy-fourth-quarter-2018-inv…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

nobody believes that China only added 10 tonnes of gold to their official reserves.   Ronan explains what is behind the low amount of official gold announced.  Remember that China produces 432 tonnes of gold last year and sold none.  This gold must be included into official reserves and yet it is not.

(courtesy Ronan Manly/GATA)

Ronan Manly: Separating truth from fiction in China’s golden game of poker

 Section: 

1:48p ET Saturday, January 12, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star gold market researcher Ronan Manly explains today why China’s recent announcement of a small increase in its gold reserves is unbelievably small and possibly just a warning shot toward the United States. Manly’s analysis is headlined “Separating Truth from Fiction in China’s Golden Game of Poker” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/separating-truth-from-fict…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Dollars are scarce around the world as the uSA sucks up all dollars to pay for their 1 trillion deficit.  Zimbabwe seeks a new currency to back their economy but cannot find one..maybe they can go back to using sea shells like they did in 600 BCE…

(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

Sea shells? Oxen? Zimbabwe plans a new currency as dollar shortage bites

 Section: 

Another resource- and gold-rich country insisting on being poor.

* * *

By MacDonald Dzirutwe
Bloomberg News
Saturday, January 12, 2019

HARARE, Zimbabwe — Zimbabwe will introduce a new currency in the next 12 months, the country’s finance minister said, as a shortage of U.S. dollars plunges the financial system into disarray, forcing businesses to close and threatening unrest.

… 

The southern African nation abandoned its own hyperinflation-wrecked currency in 2009 at the height of an economic recession, adopting the greenback and other currencies including sterling and the South African rand.

But without enough hard currency to back up the $10 billion of electronic funds trapped in local bank accounts, businesses and civil servants are demanding payment in cash which can be deposited and used to make payments both inside and outside the country. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL8N1ZC056

* * *

END

The Bank of China will now executive payment in yuan on USA e commerce platforms. Another dagger into the heart of USA hegemony

(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

Bank of China to enable payment in yuan on U.S. e-commerce platforms

 Section: 

By Tom Daly
Reuters
Sunday, January 13, 2019

BEIJING — Bank of China’s New York branch will enable Chinese firms to receive payment in yuan rather than dollars from their sales on U.S. e-commerce platforms this year, the official Xinhua news agency reported today.

Pledging to introduce more services for small and medium-sized enterprises engaged in cross-border trade between the United States and China, executives from the branch said payment in yuan would be possible by tapping new functions of e-MPay, a cross-border payment system launched by the branch in 2016.

… 

The branch is developing a system using an existing platform to “facilitate trade finance for e-commerce players,” said Xu Chen, president and chief executive officer of Bank of China USA, Xinhua reported, without providing further details. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-banking-usa/bank-of-china-to-en…





iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

 

 

 

-END-

Newmont Mining buys out the ailing Goldcorp in a 10 billion dollar deal.  When you see gold deals like this and Barrick you know the end game is being played out.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Newmont Mining To Buy Goldcorp In $10 Billion Deal To Create World’s Largest Gold Miner

In the latest deal in what’s becoming a wave of consolidation among gold miners, Newmont Mining announced on Monday that it would buy smaller miner Gold Corp in a deal valued at $10 billion.

Gold

The deal could create the largest gold miner in the world, with operations stretching from the Americas, to Australia and Ghana, the companies said. Newmont will offer 0.3280 of its share and two cents for each share of its Canadian rival, according to  CNBC. The deal is the largest in the space since Randgold and Barrick announced their plans to merge back in September.

As the Wall Street Journal pointed out, the depletion of global gold mines and the resulting increase in extraction costs has pushed gold miners to seek cost efficiencies and smaller-scale combinations.

“The strategic rationale for combining Goldcorp with Newmont is powerfully compelling on many levels.” Goldcorp Chief Executive Officer David Garofalo said in a statement. Goldcorp shares climbed 1.3% in premarket trading on the news. The GDX, an ETF of gold miners, also climbed on the news.

end
Two points to consider here:  Russia is set to buy up to 10 billion in bitcoin in order to evade USA sanctions.
1. Putin believes in the cryptocurrency and  the purchase will without a doubt create a bubble wherever he whenever he buys it
2  Putin understands that he cannot buy 10 billion dollars worth of physical gold because there is not any around
(courtesy zerohedge)

Russia Prepares To Buy Up To $10 Billion In Bitcoin To Evade US Sanctions

While the market has been increasingly focused on the rising headwinds in the global economy in general, and China’s economic slowdown in particular, while the media is obsessing over daily revelations that Trump may or may not have colluded with Russia to get elected, a far more critical, if underreported, shift has been taking place over the past year.

As we reported in June, whether due to concerns over draconian western sanctions and asset confiscations following the poisoning of former Russian military officer Sergei Skripal, or simply because it wanted to diversify away from the dollar, Russia liquidated virtually all of its Treasury holdings in the late spring and early summer, in the process sparking a major repricing of the 10Y US Treasury, whose yield jumped from 2.70% at the start of April to a high of 3.10% in May, a move which economists were struggling to explain at the time.

The obvious next question is what did Russia do with the proceeds, and it came as little surprise that, as we wrote back in July, as Russia was selling nearly $100BN worth of Treasurys, it was aggressively buying gold.

In addition to gold, the Kremlin also instructed the Russian finance ministry to load up on Yuan, something which we noted at the end of September, when we showed the surge in reserves allocated to the Chinese Yuan.

As part of its reallocation away from the dollar, Russia also bought a substantial amount of other non-USD currencies, and according to a recent report, the money pulled from the dollar reserves was redistributed to increase the share of the euro to 32%, the yuan to 14.7%, and another 14.7% of the portfolio was invested in other currencies, including the British pound (6.3%), Japanese yen (4.5%), as well as Canadian (2.3%) and Australian (1%) dollars.

And now, the final missing piece of Russia’s massive capital reallocation out of the petrodollars has emerged, after the Telegraph reported that Moscow is preparing an investment in Bitcoin in a bid to tackle US sanctions, according to a Russian economist with close ties to the Kremlin.

According to Vladislav Ginko, an economist at the state-funded Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, the government is taking steps to minimize the impact of US sanctions that have hit the Russian rouble by replacing some of its US dollar reserves with the world’s most popular cryptocurrency.

Quoted by The Telegraph, Ginko said he believes Russia’s de-dollarization decision is fundamentally a move to “protect its national interests” due to a possible interruption of “US nominated payments flows for Russian oil and gas” and claims that the investment in bitcoin could be as much as $10bn (£7.8bn); a material enough amount to send the price of bitcoin sharply higher.

When would Russia’s next capital reallocation take place? According to the Russian economist, the purchases could start as soon as next month. Cryptocurrencies have seen a surge of interest in Russia, where President Putin has expressed an interest in the digital assets in recent months. Ginko believes Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency industry now account for 8% of Russia’s GDP, and investment to bolster the country’s reserves with Bitcoin could start as soon as February.

“[The] Russian government is about to make a step to start diversifying financial reserves into Bitcoin since Russia [is] forced by US sanctions to dump US Treasury bonds and [take] back US dollars,” Ginko said.

“These sanctions and the will to adopt modern financial technologies lead Russia to the way of investing its reserves into Bitcoin.”

While the Central Bank of Russia has yet to confirm or deny the report and has yet to publish official plans, it said in a statement to The Daily Telegraph that it “publishes information on the foreign assets management with a six-month lag”. As noted above, an asset reallocation would be expected by a country which has been aggressively de-dollarizing  by boosting its holdings of the euro, Chinese renminbi and Japanese yen.

Speaking to The Telegraph, eToro senior market analyst Mati Greenspan said that there is “definitely an interest from the [Russian] government to do this”.

What is most surprising is the sheer size of Russia’s proposed reallocation: the alleged plan to invest in the digital asset would see the state acquire almost a sixth of the world’s Bitcoin float, though since the buy order would push the price and valuation sharply higher, that would reduce Russia’s purchasing power.

Furthermore, since the Russian government would be unable to open an account with an exchange to buy cryptocurrencies, any investment plans could involve the setup of an “intermediary cryptocurrency” that can then be exchanged for Bitcoin. The new cryptocurrency would have to be offered by a broker such as Sberbank, a state-owned bank, and would act as what’s known as a utility token.

“The proposal that I understand is on the desk of the finance minister at the moment is to create some sort of intermediary cryptocurrency,” Greenspan said.

Putin has been a fan of cryptos for years, after he personally met with Vitalik Buterin, the 24-year-old Russian founder of cryptocurrency Ethereum in 2017 to discuss possibilities in the sector, and has also met personally with the Ethereum head in recent months according to The Telegraph.

“We know that Vladimir Putin is a big advocate of blockchain technology,” said Greenspan.

“Obviously he doesn’t like the sanctions that have been placed on him and he’s already said that these types of sanctions are going to lead to de-dollarisation. This is more or less the direction the Russian government is going.”

News of the potential Russian reallocation provided a sharp boost in crypto prices this morning, which have resumed their drift in the past week after bitcoin once again dipped below $4000 with many experts, the same ones who never anticipated bitcoin could reach $20,000 in December 2017, predicting that the crypto space is doomed.

 

If Putin indeed plans on buying up nearly 20% of the outstanding bitcoin float, not only will reports of bitcoin’s imminent death prove to be greatly exaggerated, but should the market attempt to frontrun Russia and/or should the total float shrink dramatically, the third, and biggest cryptobubble yet is about to be unleashed, something which will likely be facilitated by Chinese capital outflows which as we reported earlier, appear to have returned, just as they did shortly before bitcoin exploded from $200 to $20,000.

 

end

 

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.7656/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS ON TRUCE/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7683   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 18.07 PTS OR 0.71%

 

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 368.96POINTS OR 1/38%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 95.63/Euro FALLS TO 1.1458

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.11/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 51.10 and Brent: 59.91

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.21%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.88% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.42%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.67: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.36

3k Gold at $1295.10 silver at:15.62   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 28/100 in roubles/dollar) 67.17

3m oil into the 51 dollar handle for WTI and 59 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.11 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9825 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1257 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.21%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.68% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.02%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.5147

 

 

 

Futures Tumble Following Dismal Chinese Trade Data

The torrid post-Christmas rally, which fizzled last Friday, appears to be officially dead just as earnings season begins, with futures sliding early in the session only seeing the drop accelerated after dismal trade data out of China reignited concerns about global growth and ahead of a key Brexit vote on Tuesday, leading to a sea of red in global markets with S&P futures down 1% to session lows around 6am ET, alongside sliding stocks in Europe and Asia. Treasury yields fell to 2.66% while the dollar held steady.

Tech stocks were the biggest losers in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index on renewed fears about a China hard-landing; in Asia, losses were most pronounced in Hong Kong after China posted the worst import and export figures since 2016. The index of Europe’s leading 300 shares slipped 0.7 percent in early trade to 1,365 points. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC fell around 0.6 percent, with shares in European tech and luxury goods companies and the automotive sector suffering some of the biggest declines.

“We believe trade growth next year will slow significantly on huge uncertainty and high base,” Citi analysts wrote in a note, predicting China’s exports and imports to fall 5.1 percent and 6.8 percent respectively this year. “Significant uncertainty remains as to whether there could be a ‘deal’ after March 1,” they added.

The falls in Europe followed hefty declines in Asia where MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific ex-Japan shares lost around 1 percent from Friday’s 1-1/2 month high – its biggest single-day percentage drop since Jan. 2. Chinese and Hong Kong shares suffered the worst hits.

Early on Monday, China reported dismal trade data with exports unexpectedly falling the most since 2016 in December, while imports also contracted, pointing to further weakness in the world’s second-largest economy in 2019 and deteriorating global demand. Specifically, China December exports tumbled Fall -4.4% Y/y in Dollar Termsthe weakest year-on-year reading since January 2017, and down from +3.9% in November; far below the 2.0% consensus increase, while imports plunged -7.6% from +2.9% in Nov, badly missing the 4.5% expected increase, ironically resulting in the biggest trade surplus on record of $57.1BN. In month-on-month terms, the contraction of exports and imports accelerated further in December. In sequential terms, exports contracted 6.2% mom sa non-annualized, down further from a decrease of 3.4% in November

“Today’s data reflect an end to export front-loading and the start of payback effects, while the global slowdown could also weigh on China’s exports,” Nomura economists wrote in a note, referring to a surge in shipments to the U.S. over much of last year as companies rushed to beat further tariffs.

The large contraction in Chinese imports was broadly consistent with a significant decrease of exports in December from Korea and Taiwan to China. Exports growth has been weaker than expected over the past two months, and sequential momentum has slowed significantly to a contraction since November from a strong rebound in September, which has been probably due to the fading impact from front-loading ahead of 10% tariffs levied on $200bn Chinese goods starting in late September (and ahead of the potential—and so far delayed—increase of tariffs on these goods to 25%). According to Goldman, exports growth is likely to remain soft in the near future, given moderation in global growth momentum suggested by GS Leading Current Activity Indicator, even though a faster-than-expected waning of impact from front-loading could potentially pose less downward pressure for exports in the coming months. Adding to policymakers’ worries, data on Monday also showed China posted its biggest trade surplus with the United States on record in 2018, which could prompt President Donald Trump to turn up the heat on Beijing in their bitter trade dispute.

The dismal December trade readings suggest China’s economy may have cooled faster than expected late in the year, despite a slew of growth-boosting measures in recent months ranging from higher infrastructure spending to tax cuts. Some analysts had already speculated that Beijing may have to speed up and intensify its policy easing and stimulus measures this year after factory activity shrank in December.

Elsewhere, ahead of a critical Brexit vote on Tuesday, UK PM May warned that failure to back her Brexit deal risks a no-deal Brexit and is to say she believes parliament will more likely block Brexit than the UK leave without a deal, according to the PM’s office. In separate reports, the UK government commented that any defeat by less than 100 votes on Tuesday would be counted as a good result. Furthermore, reports in The Times noted that Brussels expects the UK to ask for an extension to Article 50 to allow Brexit to be delayed if the House of Commons rejects Theresa May’s deal tomorrow, while there were separate reports that Pro-EU MPs are said to publish draft legislation on Monday for a 2nd referendum.

All this adds to tensions as traders watch the record rally of the last two weeks finally collapse and as the banks are set to report earnings. As Bloomberg notes, this month’s buoyancy in global equities, triggered by signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks and dovish commentary from Federal Reserve officials, faces a test with the Chinese data underscoring the impact of the trade spat. The next hurdles to clear will be a slew of U.S. bank profit reports and earnings season, amid worries global growth is slowing. Also weighing on sentiment is the partial U.S government shutdown that’s entered its fourth week.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed while the yen climbed as Chinese trade data and caution ahead of key earnings curbed risk appetite. The euro hit a session low after data showed euro-zone industrial production contracted 3.3% y/y in November, compared to an estimate of a 2.1% decline; Bunds gained, lagging Treasuries, while Italian bonds fell ahead of possible supply. Sweden’s krona recovered from an earlier decline after inflation data beat analyst estimates, while matching the central bank’s forecast. Finally, the Turkish lira slumped after Trump warned Turkey not to attack Kurdish forces in Syria after a planned U.S. pullout, saying it would be economically devastated if it did so.

The prospect of slowing global growth also roiled commodity markets, with oil prices slipping 1% after initially rising, and industrial metals copper and aluminum losing ground in both London and Shanghai.  Meanwhile safe havens trades benefited from the equity pullback with U.S. 10-year Treasury yields falling to as low as 2.6690 percent – their lowest level in a week – while gold prices gained as Newmont announced it would buy Goldcorp to create the world’s largest gold miner.

In geopol news, President Trump tweeted that US is starting long overdue pullout from Syria, while he also threatened to devastate Turkey economically if Turkey hits the Kurds and likewise doesn’t want the Kurds to provoke Turkey. Iran suggested it could restart its nuclear program as its nuclear program chief stated that they have started preliminary activities for designing a modern process for 20% uranium enrichment for its reactor in Tehran. In separate news, US President Trump’s reportedly instructed the Pentagon last year to provide military options to strike Iran.

In other news, PG&E (PCG) said to be in discussions with banks about multi-billion dollar bankruptcy financing and may inform employees on Monday it is preparing a bankruptcy filing for January 29th.; the Co’s CEO Williams is leaving with general council John Simon to takeover in the interim. Company shares are down 50% pre-market.

For the U.S. trading day ahead, banks will be in sharp focus as they kick off the earnings season. Quarterly results from Citigroup are due on Monday followed by JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley later in the week. Expectations are dour with profits for U.S. companies forecast to rise 6.4 percent, down from an Oct. 1 estimate of 10.2 percent and a big drop from 2018’s tax cut-fueled gain of more than 20 percent. Investor attention was also on the U.S. government shutdown, now in its 24th day, and with no resolution in sight.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 1% to 2,569.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 347.32
  • MXAP down 0.4% to 150.88
  • MXAPJ down 0.9% to 486.56
  • Nikkei up 1% to 20,359.70
  • Topix up 0.5% to 1,529.73
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 26,298.33
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 2,535.77
  • Sensex down 0.4% to 35,862.08
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.02% to 5,773.37
  • Kospi down 0.5% to 2,064.52
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.9 bps to 0.22%
  • Euro up 0.02% to $1.1471
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.5 bps to 2.493%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to 1.433%
  • Brent futures down 1.8% to $59.40/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,294.05
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 95.67

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Trump’s refusal to reopen the U.S. government reflects the growing influence of his acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney and senior adviser Stephen Miller, hard-right conservatives who are closer to the president thanks to turnover within the White House
  • With Washington mired in gridlock and markets flashing all sorts of warning signs, the majority of Americans expects 2019 to be a grim one for their finances, according to a new study
  • Industrial output in the euro area fell the most in almost three years in November, raising questions over the economy’s ability to regain momentum after a broad-based slowdown
  • Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s political future is on the line this week after a coalition breakdown prompted him to call a confidence vote in parliament set for Wednesday, raising the risk of an early election
  • Italy’s economy is probably in a phase of stagnation not recession, Finance Minister Giovanni Tria said in a newspaper interview, adding that the country’s deficit will be kept under control
  • Germany should try to head off an economic slowdown by easing the tax burden on companies, according to the new chairwoman of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats

Asian equity markets began the week subdued following the indecisive close on Wall St last Friday as the US government shutdown extended to its longest in history, while disappointing Chinese trade data and the absence of Japanese participants for Coming of Age Day also contributed to the downbeat sentiment. ASX 200 (Unch.) failed to hold on to early gains as strength in Telecoms and its largest weighted Financials sector was eventually overwhelmed by losses in the broader market, while KOSPI (-0.5%) was lacklustre amid softness in the index heavyweights including Samsung Electronics and Hyundai Motor. Hang Seng (-1.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.7%) were also pressured as Chinese Exports and Imports figures took a further hit from the US-China trade dispute, although losses in the mainland were capped after the PBoC injected liquidity to the interbank market in which it utilized 28-day reverse repos for the first time since June last year. PBoC injected CNY 80bln via 7-day and CNY 20bln in 28-day reverse repos for a net daily injection of CNY 20bln. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.7560 (Prev. 6.7909).

Top Asian News

  • China Doubles Foreign Investment Limit in Further Opening
  • CapitaLand CEO Puts Stamp on Developer With $4.4 Billion Deal
  • Etihad Agrees to Raise Stake in India’s Jet to 49%, Report Says
  • Jet Airways Jumps on Report Founder Goyal Is Giving Up Control
  • China Is Said to Extend Foreign Bond Quota for 28 More Firms

Major European Indices are in the red [Euro Stoxx 50 -1.0%], with some underperformance seen in the SMI (-1.1%) weighed on by poor performance in luxury names such as Richemont (-2.1%) and Swatch (-1.0%) following poor Chinese trade data. Other luxury names including Pandora (-6.5%), and LVMH (-3.5%) are in the red on the back of this as well; Burberry (+0.3%) is bucking the luxury trend after being upgraded at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Sectors are similarly in the red with some slight outperformance seen in healthcare. Other notable movers include Next (-2.9%) in the red after being downgraded at Credit Suisse, and Dialog Semiconductor (+4.3%) after reporting a 7% Y/Y increase in full year revenue.

Top European News

  • Orsted Shares Slump Most Since July as Asset Sale Scuppered
  • Telecom Italia Is Said to Bid for BT’s Scandal-Plagued Business
  • Monte Paschi Drops After ECB Says It Has Capital, Profit Issues
  • Euro-Area Production Slump Adds to Gloom for Economic Outlook
  • Continental AG Issues Gloomy Auto Market Forecast for First Half

In FX, it has been a relatively docile session for the USD thus far as the index sits around the middle of tight 95.527-726 range as the US government shutdown extends to the longest in history. Subsequently, the US data originally scheduled for release today (building permits, advanced goods trade balance and durable goods) have been cancelled.

  • AUD/NZD/CNY/JPY – The major G10 movers, all in the aftermath of below-forecast Chinese trade data as exports and imports both declined to a 6-month low in USD terms vs. expected rises. As such trade-proxy AUD/USD fell around 0.4% to test its 100 DMA at around 0.7180 while NZD/USD declined 0.3% to test its 200 DMA at around 0.6797, ahead of its 50 DMA at 0.6789 as the technicals are still poised to form a golden cross. Meanwhile, global-growth fears sparked safe-haven demand into the Yen as USD/JPY tested 108.00 to the downside ahead of a Fib level at 107.91, of note 1.1bln in option expiries sit between 108.00-15. Finally, the Yuan snapped a three-day winning streak but remains sub-6.80 vs. the greenback, though the currency is of course dampened by the disappointing trade figures, USD/CNY is capped by a firmer PBoC CNY fix of 6.7560 (Prev. 6.7909). In terms of techincals, USD/CNH breached its 50 HMA to the upside at 6.7692 with the 100 HMA above the 6.8000 level. It is also worth noting that Goldman Sachs raised their 3, 6, 12 month USD/CNH forecast to 6.80 (Prev. 6.95), 6.80 (Prev. 7.10) and 6.70 (Prev. 6.90) respectively citing an improvement in sentiment around US-Sino trade talks.
  • GBP, EUR – Both little changed on the day, while the latter is largely fluctuating with the dollar and the Pound awaits tomorrows meaningful vote, which was originally scheduled for December 11th last year. The deal is widely expected to be voted down and BBC reports that around 100 Tory and the 10 DUP MPs are expected to join the Labour and the opposition parties in voting against the deal. In terms of where we stand with Brexit, PM May is to deliver a speech at 15:30 GMT where she will warn that Parliament is more likely to block Brexit rather than let Britain leave without a deal. Furthermore, the assurances provided by Brussels are also understood to not be enough to sway MPs towards PM May’s deal scheduled for 19:00GMT tomorrow. Cable was largely unfazed by the release of the EU assurances which offered little in the way of legally-binding material MPs sough for. From a technical standpoint, Cable recently saw a pop higher and rests just below its 100 DMA at 1.2893 with no notable option expiries for the day. Going back to the EUR, the currency was relatively unmoved by below-forecast industrial production figures following Germany’s dismal IP release last week. EUR/USD is currently below its 100 DMA at 1.1476 and in close proximity to the psychological (and 200 HMA) at 1.1450, while there is nothing notable to report regarding option expiries.
  • TRY – The stand-out EM underperformer as USD/TRY reclaimed 5.50 to the upside amid a tweet by US President Trump over the weekend where he threatened to devastate Turkey if Turkey hits the Kurds, subsequently pouring cold water over what seemed like a fruitful relationship between the countries.

In commodities, Brent (-1.4%) and WTI (-1.6%) prices are in the red, just below USD 60.00/bbl and USD 51.00/bbl respectively, as the risk tone stemming from the ongoing US government shutdown and disappointing Chinese trade data weighs on markets. Regarding China, December oil imports of 10.35mln BPD, down from November’s figure but up from the 7.97mln BPD for December 2017. Separately, Saudi Energy Minister Al Falih stated that in his opinion OPEC+ has taken enough action to balance the oil market this year, and that there is no need for an extraordinary OPEC meeting before April. Gold (+0.4%) is in the green, towards the sessions high of USD 1294.57/oz as the aforementioned risk tone weighs on markets. Elsewhere, China’s 2018 iron ore imports fell -1% Y/Y, the first yearly decline since 2010. In contrast China’s 2018 copper imports increased 12.9% to a record high of 5.3mln tonnes.

US Event Calendar

  • Nothing major scheduled

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

For those disappointed with the news on Friday that Mr Trump has cancelled his trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos next week, then fear not. I’ll be making my debut at the event and will be presenting at two Deutsche Bank hosted events. If you or anyone you work with are attending and would like to come along please let me know and I’ll let you know how to register. I’m hoping Bono finds time away from fixing the world’s problems to attend one of my sessions. Failing that I’d be happy to discuss my views on the yield curve with Angelina Jolie.

That’s for next week. For this it’s all about the Brexit vote, what happens next, and the start of US earnings season. Before we preview this, today marks the 24th day of the US government shutdown eclipsing the previous longest ever (21 days) seen in 1995-96. For markets the main inconvenience so far is the delay in some data releases. This Wednesday’s US retail sales release is the highest profile casualty to date data wise. Our economists highlighted that the 2013 shutdown was calculated to have cost about 0.1% of GDP per week lost. However at 850k furloughed workers, the shutdown over 5 years ago led to double the temporary losses of jobs than the current impasse has created. So the overall economic impact should be minimal for now even if it is distressing for those directly impacted. However the longer it goes on the more the lack of visibility on data will be a problem and the more it will start to make a meaningful impact on the immediate economic outlook. We’re not there yet but we’re also not seemingly near a solution.

Outside of US politics the main story this week will be Brexit. The Withdrawal Agreement vote takes place tomorrow evening but The Times on Saturday suggested that if an earlier amendment (the amendments get voted on first) is passed that rejects the deal but also rejects a no-deal then it’s still possible the vote won’t take place and the government will admit defeat but avoid the actual process. Regardless of what happens it seems possible that the deal won’t pass and we could get a constitutional head scratcher of a week. The opposition Labour Party will likely call a no-confidence motion that they have very little chance of winning but more importantly the weekend press (Bloomberg) is increasingly suggesting that Parliament will try to wrestle control of Brexit from Mrs May after Tuesday. Meanwhile, in a last ditch effort PM May is going to make a speech today appealing to members of Parliament to vote for her deal and at the same time warning them that there’s now more chance of them blocking Brexit than of Britain leaving the European Union without a deal.

Overnight the Guardian has reported that the EU27 is considering extending the Article 50 deadline until July should the UK request it assuming Mrs May loses tomorrow. To extend beyond the Euro Parliamentary elections would show the EU are keen to avoid a no-deal. If true one could argue that we’ll now increasingly likely to get a rolling extension until we get a deal, the U.K. decides to stay in, or there is a Parliamentary majority for a no-deal exit (highly unlikely). This news if verified would ultimately reduce the pathways to a hard, cliff edge Brexit.

As it stands Mrs May needs to come back by next Monday with a plan B if she loses tomorrow (thanks to a constitutionally questionable amendment last week that shortened the required response time from 21 to 3 days). However it appears that procedure in the U.K. Parliament is highly unpredictable at the moment and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see more constitutional deviations to standard procedure. . Anyone who says they know exactly how this all ends is either lying or a time traveller. If they are the latter can you ask them whether Liverpool win the league as I wouldn’t mind knowing so as to cut down the tension and stress I’m feeling at the moment. However if the answer is that after waiting 29 years there’s another 29 years further to wait then maybe I’ll be better off blissfully unaware.

On a serious note the direction of travel seems likely to be a pivot towards a softer Brexit or a delay to Brexit if the main motion is defeated tomorrow night. However many bumps are likely on the way.

Meanwhile, earnings season is back in the US with 35 S&P 500 companies set to report this week. The highlights will likely be the banks with Citigroup reporting today, Wells Fargo and JP Morgan tomorrow, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America on Wednesday, and Morgan Stanley on Thursday. UnitedHealth and Delta Airlines are also due to report on Tuesday, Netflix on Wednesday, and Schlumberger and American Express on Thursday. For Q4, earnings growth for the S&P 500 is expected to be 11.4% which compares to around 25% growth reported in each of the previous three quarters. Still, if Q4 comes in in-line this would be the fifth straight quarter of double digits earnings growth. It’s worth noting also that over the past five years on average, actual earnings have exceeded estimated earnings by nearly 5% according to Factset. In terms of data we show the full week ahead at the end.

This morning in Asia markets are heading lower with the Hang Seng (-1.43%), Shanghai Comp (-0.56%) and Kospi (-0.66%) all down weighed by the disappointing December trade data from China with both exports (at -4.4% yoy vs. +2.0% yoy expected) and imports (at -7.6% yoy vs. +4.5% yoy expected) declining at a faster pace and at the worst levels since 2016, thereby raising concerns of a slowdown in global growth. The Australian dollar (-0.44%) also came under pressure following China’s disappointing trade data even as China’s onshore yuan is eking out a small gain (+0.06%). Japan’s markets are closed for a holiday. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are also down -0.73%.

Turning to a recap of last week, Friday turned out to be quite a calm trading session, especially relative to the rest of the week. The highlight was the US’s December CPI data, which printed exactly in-line with consensus expectations. Core prices rose +0.2% mom and +2.2% yoy. Headline inflation moderated a touch, to -0.1% mom and +1.9% yoy, though it was driven by transitory energy dynamics.

On the week, the S&P 500 ended +2.54% higher (-0.01% on Friday), while small caps outperformed with the Russell 2000 up +4.83% (+0.14% Friday). Other major indexes also advanced, with the DOW and NASDAQ gaining +2.40% and +2.78%, respectively (-0.02% and -0.30% Friday). In Europe, the STOXX 600 rose +1.69% on the week (+0.09% Friday) while Italy’s FTSEMIB outperformed, up +2.43% (-0.06% Friday). Asian equities advanced as well, with the Nikkei and Hang Seng indexes up +4.08% and +4.06% (+0.97% and +0.55% Friday) respectively. The main drivers of this broad risk-on sentiment were: positive progress on US-China trade talks, Fed Chair Powell and other Fed officials signaling a pause in the rate hike cycle, and low valuations after December’s steep selloff.

In fixed income, US HY credit stole the show with a -44.5bps rally on the week, its strongest week since March 2016 (+2bps Friday) and 84bps tighter than its recent wides on January 3rd. European HY also gained -28bps (-4bps Friday). Sovereign bond yields rose slightly, with Treasuries and Bunds ending the week +3.0 and +3.1 bps higher at 2.70% and 0.24% (-4.5bps and -1.6bps on Friday). The dollar retreated -0.53% while EM currencies gained +0.36%, though the moves moderated on Friday (dollar +0.14% and EMs -0.14%). The euro ended the week +0.59% stronger at 1.146 (-0.33% Friday). Finally, oil continued its strong rally as well, gaining +6.15% on the week (-1.80% Friday) to close above $60. The two week gain for Brent was 16.05%, the best performance in over two years.

It should be a quiet start to the week on Monday with the only data due out being the Euro Area November industrial production report and China’s December trade balance. Meanwhile earnings season gets underway with Citigroup reporting.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 18.07 PTS OR 0.71% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 368.96 POINTS OR 1.38% /The Nikkei closed HOLIDAY / Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.03%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7656 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 51.10 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.91 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED /RED 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.7656 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7683: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

 

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/CHINA

 

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA

i)CHINA/USA

This is interesting:  The Huawei executive arrested on espionage charges in Poland has been fired by the company as they supposedly had no knowledge of his criminal activity

(courtesy zerohedge)

Huawei Fires Executive Arrested On Espionage Charges In Poland

In the latest sign that the US’s extensive lobbying campaign to convince its Western allies that Chinese telecoms giant Huawei is not to be trusted is beginning to bear fruit, Huawei on Saturday revealedthat it had fired an executive based in Poland after he and a Polish national were arrested by Polish intelligence and charged with espionage on behalf of Beijing.

Already, members of the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance – which, in addition to the US, includes Canada, New Zealand, Australia and the UK – have tightened restrictions on use of Huawei equipment by government agencies, and have discouraged domestic telecoms companies from utilizing Huawei’s market-leading 5G technology. Japan, Germany, the Netherlands and other Western countries are taking similar steps. President Trump is weighing an outright ban on purchases of Huawei products by US companies as US telecoms firms struggle to catch up in the race to become the world leader in 5G technology.

Huawei

And though Huawei operates in more than 170 countries globally (including Syria and Iran), it appears that the fear of being excluded from Western markets has prompted a rare break with Beijing, which said on Friday that the arrest of Wang Weijing was “gravely concerning” – words seemingly intended to menace any Polish businessmen or diplomats living or working in the PRC (just look at Beijing’s treatment of Canadian nationals following the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou).

In a statement quoted by Bloomberg announcing the firing, Huawei denounced Wang as having brought “disrepute” on his now-former employer.

Huawei Technologies Co. fired Wang Weijing, an employee arrested in Poland this week on suspicion of spying for the Chinese government, saying he disgraced the company.

“His alleged actions have no relation to the company,” Huawei said Saturday in an emailed statement. “The incident in question has brought Huawei into disrepute.”

Wang has been described as being in charge of sales to public sector clients. The Polish national who was arrested along with Wang – his name hasn’t been revealed – was reportedly a former employee of Poland’s security services.

A spokesman for Poland’s secret services said it has evidence that both men engaged in espionage against Poland. If convicted, they could face up to 10 years in prison. Still, Huawei vociferously objected to Meng’s arrest in Vancouver on charges she lied to banks to mask violations of US and EU sanctions against Iran, and has continued to oppose her extradition to the US, which Beijing also opposes.

Poland has said that Wang’s suspected activities had nothing to do with his work at Huawei. Still, Huawei’s decision to abandon an executive is certainly interesting.

end
You knew that this was coming.  The 70 yr friendship of Canada and China has now officially ended with China imposing the death penalty on a Canadian convicted of drug smuggling.  No doubt that this guy will be used as a pawn in freeing Meng. If anybody things that the uSA will have a trade deal, guess again.
(courtesy zerohedge)

China Imposes Death Penalty On Canadian Convicted Of Drug Smuggling

As was widely expected after a Chinese court ordered a retrial of Canadian national Robert Schellenberg on drug trafficking charges last month, the Canadian national has now been sentenced to death for allegedly smuggling “an enormous amount of drugs” into China. He had earlier been sentenced to 15 years.

Wei Du 杜唯@WeiDuCNA

Breaking- Chinese state media: Canadian Robert Schellenberg sentenced to dead for drug smuggling after Chinese prosecutors appealed his 15-year original sentence.

30 people are talking about this

The harsh sentence, like the arrests of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor  on vague charges of threatening national security (an investigation is reportedly ongoing, according to Chinese officials), is widely suspected to be retaliation for the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou (who is also the daughter of the conglomerate’s founder).

Few details about Schellenberg’s case have been shared with the media, other than the fact that he was arrested in 2014, long before the Huawei dispute erupted. Canadian diplomats had reportedly been working with the Chinese government on the case. The retrial was ordered after Chinese prosecutors argued that Schellenberg’s sentence was too lenient.

Shelly

Robert Schellenberg

In a report published late last week, Canada’s Globe and Mail carried remarks from Schellenberg’s family, who said they feared his life was being used as a bargaining chip in the international dispute.

“There’s no way they are not using him as a pawn,” said Lauri Nelson-Jones, Mr. Schellenberg’s aunt, in an interview.

“And it’s just harsh. That’s someone’s kid. That’s someone’s brother and nephew. And to just say, ‘we’re going to think about ending his life now over this’ – it’s not warranted. It’s not deserved. It’s heartbreaking.”

A legal scholar and expert in Chinese law said Schellenberg’s case was “almost certainly being manipulated.

The case against Mr. Schellenberg “is almost certainly being politically manipulated,” he said, although “in a much more subtle legalistic way than the other cases. It will bring more pressure on Canada but because it has been going on for a while, the Chinese have a more plausible legalistic defence.”

They pointed out that Schellenberg’s trial and sentencing took four years, but his retrial and second sentencing took just two weeks.

We imagine we’ll be hearing more from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau about the importance of respecting the “rule of law” as Canada struggles – probably unsuccessfully – to secure Schellenberg’s return.

END

China, no doubt will be panicking as suddenly their capital outflows are soaring again.  This will be good for gold

(courtesy zerohedge)

China’s Capital Outflows Are Suddenly Soaring Again… And Why This Is Great News For Cryptos

Officially, China has maintained quasi capital controls for years: on paper no individual is allowed to move more than $50,000 out of the country in any given year while Chinese companies can exchange yuan for foreign currencies only for approved purposes.

Unofficially, China’s capital controls had been skirted for years, leading to massive capital outflow from the nation over the past decade, leading to such aberrations as massive luxury housing bubbles in places such as Vancouver, London, New York and San Francisco, and seemingly middle-class Chinese politicians and oligarchs sporting Swiss bank accounts funded in the hundreds of millions (or billions).

In fact, as we detailed in 2017, Beijing has an interesting way of dealing with capital outflows. While they closely monitor many methods, they don’t actively pursue shutting them down. They often watch from afar, and if capital reserves aren’t impacted, or their reputation isn’t damaged, they allow them to continue. The PBoC announced in 2017 they were going to deploy a massive anti-money laundering framework, designed to further halt capital outflows.As we said at the time, we’ll have to see if they were serious, or if this was just to win reputation points with international countries.

Well, two years later, we may have the answer. After an apparent lull in outflows, potentially driven by the reforms cracking down on capital flight, there are signs that China is facing an exodus of cash once again…

Amid all the headlines about China’s surplus with US and the ongoing trade tensions, there was a message hidden in China’s trade data

It is that capital outflow probably accelerated significantly last month. It’s a reminder of why the PBOC would probably be reluctant to let the yuan decline significantly. That would encourage even further outflows and risk a vicious circle.

While China’s total imports fell 7.6% in dollar terms from a year earlier, its purchases from Hong Kong surged 106%.

Critically, Elsa Lignos, global head of FX Strategy at RBC in London, notes that this outlier resembles the jump in 2015-2016 when mainland companies used inflated invoices to take money out of the country.

The timing of the sudden shift is telling as it coincides with a lagged reaction to a sudden devaluation  – just as we saw in 2015/2016…

The logistics of the over-invoicing scam are extraordinarily simple – Mainland Chinese will ‘overpay’ for goods or services delivered from a Hong Kong merchant with a pre-agreement that the Hong Kong-based ‘exporter’ will – for a fee – allow the mainland Chinese ‘importer’ to have access to his cash but now outside of China’s government-imposed firewall controlling capital flight.

And the last time this occurred at this kind of scale, it sent Bitcoin from $200 to $20,000…

While some have argued that Bitcoin is not the most efficient method of funds transfer or storage once the mainland Chinese cash has reached Hong Kong (claiming hot money brokers reportedly cheaper), we suspect the ease of use may well mean the cryptocurrency sphere is facing an 18-month period of excess demand from Chinese capital desperate for its freedom.

So, in summary, recent ‘odd’ strength in the yuan is perhaps a signal that China is doing everything in its power to not give the impression that it is panicking

The truth is that it is one viral capital outflow report away from an outright scramble to enforce the most draconian capital controls in its history, which – as every Cypriot and Greek knows by now – is a self-defeating exercise and assures an ever accelerating decline in the currency, which authorities are trying to both keep stable while also devaluing at a pace of their choosing. Said pace never quite works out.

END

The following is huge news:  Chinese giant Alibaba, the world’s largest retailer warns about slowing growth
(courtesy zerohedge)

There Goes The Chinese Consumer: Alibaba Is Latest Company To Warn About Slowing Growth

Hours after the Wall Street Journal published a story speculating about who would be next to upend an equity rally with a warning about faltering sales in China (after Apple’s quarterly revenue guidance cut rattled  markets during the opening days of the year) – citing Starbucks, Nike, Texas Instruments and a host of chipmakers and luxury retailers as potential culprits – the answer has arrived perhaps more swiftly than the paper’s editors had expected. And the answer is: None of these.

 

As it turns out, the latest warning about “near-term headwinds” in the Chinese market comes from a company that’s so deeply interwoven into the fabric of the Chinese economy, even the hint of a sales slowdown should be enough to trigger anxieties about slowing global growth – even as its CEO tries to put a positive spin on things. And that company is: Alibaba.

According to a separate story published by WSJ Monday afternoon, as the ramp in equities spurred by Trump’s positive trade talk faded into the close, the president of the Chinese e-commerce giant reportedly said during a presentation at the National Retail Federation’s trade show in New York that he’s still confident in the long-term potential of the Chinese economy despite data showing a deepening slowdown.

“This is a market that requires patience,” Alibaba President J. Michael Evans said in a presentation at the National Retail Federation’s annual trade show in New York on Monday. “But if you think about where the country is going in the long-term…The future I think looks very good, notwithstanding some troubling headwinds.”
As WSJ reminds us, Alibaba, whose Taobao and Tmall marketplaces are some of the most widely used e-commerce platforms by Chinese consumers and merchants, cut its full-year revenue forecast by 4% to 6% back in November over concerns about the slowing Chinese economy’s impact on sales growth, as well as the possibility that the burgeoning trade war could also hurt sales.

 

Yes, China’s economy may be slowing – something that recently prompted the Communist Party to rethink its GDP growth projections – but it’s still growing much more quickly than its developed rivals in the West (economists expect the US economy expanded by an annualized rate of 2.5% during Q4, while China notched yoy growth of 6.5% during Q3). Over the next decade, China will likely surpass the US to become the world’s largest economy.

Unfortunately, that won’t do much to assuage the fears of equity investors who are growing increasingly anxious about the prospects for a recession in the near-to-medium term.

Still, over the next 10 years, China will probably become the largest economy in the world, Mr. Evans said, with consumption as a percentage of gross domestic product accounting for the biggest piece.

“China is the largest consumer market in the world, and the things that they want to buy are for the most part not produced in China,” Mr. Evans said. Alibaba has tens thousands of brands, including many from the U.S., that sell products directly to Chinese consumers.

That market is expected to grow as Chinese consumers gain wealth.

“There are 300 million today that are in the middle class,” he said. Over the next five years, “another 300 million to 400 million people will move into the middle class, and it will not be a market that most small businesses and retailers can afford to ignore…If you’re a retailer, it’s a great market for the future, but it will take time.”
A surprising 4.4% drop in exports during Q4 suggests that China’s stage-managed transition from an industrial, export-driven powerhouse to a more service-centric, consumption-dependent economy is in part responsible for the slowdown. And though China has imposed more tax cuts and monetary stimulus to try and fight the slowdown to reach its goal of doubling its GDP during the decade ending in 2020, investors are beginning to doubt whether the Chinese haven’t already exhausted these policy measures.

But with the trade war still in a state of suspension, and anxieties about growth at a fever pitch after last year’s abysmal equity market returns, analysts will be scanning every earnings report for signs that more bad news might be coming from the Middle Kingdom.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

FRANCE

Week NO 9: total turmoil as yellow vest battle riot police

(courtesy zerohedge)

Watch Absolute Mayhem As Yellow Vests Battle French Riot Police In 9th Week Of Protests

The Yellow Vest movement has taken to the streets across France for a 9th week of anti-government protests, as the Gilets Jaunes movement appeared to surge in both number and intensity. While the demonstrations were largely peaceful for most involved, there were several violent skirmishes with police.

Embedded video

Oh boy what a shot@ohboywhatashot

protest:

Mainstream media: ‘a few protesters’

Some 80,000 officers were deployed across France, deploying tear gas in major urban centers such as the Parisian Arc de Triomphe monument.

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_@nongilbertstp

Vous n’avez pas honte?
Le peuple se fait gazé, frappé, il y en a qui ont des sequelles à vie à cause des CRS, mais vous chouinez car un boxeur a frapper un flic? Et en pus de ça vous donnez 1m € aux fdo?
Il y a 75 ans, on appelait ça des COLLABOS.

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nonouzi@Gerrrty

Use of tear gas and water cannon on in front of Arc De Triomphe

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L’Elite voit tout@EPrivilegie

UNE HONTE ! 5 grenades de désencerclements, des tirs de canons à eau sur des gens qui évacue un blessé @davduf

Protesters came out en masse in Bordeaux, where a man was shot in the head with a with a flash-ball round and police deployed a water cannon (h/t @Steph_Roy_).

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Stéphanie Roy@Steph_Roy_

Les gilets jaunes défilent dans les rues du centre-ville

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Stéphanie Roy@Steph_Roy_

Très rapide retour au calme à la demande de nombreux gilets jaunes.
Ambiance festive place de la Comédie.

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Stéphanie Roy@Steph_Roy_

Un homme vient de recevoir un tir de flashball à la tête.

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Stéphanie Roy@Steph_Roy_

Tensions en cours place de l’hôtel de ville.

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Stéphanie Roy@Steph_Roy_

Les forces de l’ordre envoient les gaz lacrymogènes pour disperser la foule. Un feu a été allumé.

There was a similar turnout in Marseille, where a sea of Yellow Vests took to the streets as well;

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Ariel 🧜🏻‍♀️@IamJey_

à Paris (Bastille) et Marseille. Les médias vous êtes où ? @CNEWS @LCI @BFMTV, stop aux fakes news et au boycotte.

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Oh boy what a shot@ohboywhatashot

protest:

Massive crowds [compilation]

The Yellow Vest movement, which began as a protest against fuel taxes and evolved into a general anti-government movement, has attracted all types of people – as one can clearly see from this 4chan-compiled collage.

end

GERMANY

German business leaders blast Trump for Nordsteam 2 sanctions as they claim it is an attack on EU sovereignty.  And yet the uSA pays for a much greater share of NATO and defense of Europe than Germany.

(courtesy zerohedge)

German Business Blasts Trump’s NordStream 2 Sanctions As “Attack On EU Sovereignty”

A German business group said on Friday that any attempts by the United States to stop Europe from buying Russian gas in the form of additional sanctions against Moscow would be an attack on European sovereignty, reports Reuters.

“If the U.S. decided to sanction the use of Russian gas, that would be an attack on German and European sovereignty,” said Wolfgang Buechele, chairman of the German Committee on East European Economic Relations (GCEEER?) at a new year news conference.

The United States has threatened sanctions against European firms involved with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline which would carry gas straight to Germany under the Baltic Sea. The project is being spearheaded by Russian state gas giant Gazprom, and has been driving a wedge between Germany and its allies over economic harm to Ukraine, which would be deprived of lucrative gas transit fees it currently charges.

“I believe the Nord Stream 2 project is in the pure interests of not just Germany but also of Europe,” said Buechele of the pipeline, which would branch off into Europe-wide gas transmission networks.

In July, President Trump slammed Germany at a bilateral breakfast in Brussels for being a “captive of Russia because it is getting so much of its energy from Russia.”

The former Chancellor of Germany is the head of the pipeline company that is supplying the gas,” Trump continued.

“Ultimately Germany will have almost 70 percent of their country controlled by Russia with natural gas. So you tell me, is that appropriate?” Trump asked. “It should have never been allowed to happen. So Germany is totally controlled by Russia.”

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Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Bilateral Breakfast with NATO Secretary General in Brussels, Belgium…

end

The three nightmare scenarios facing Europeans:

  1. Brexit
  2. Macron and the yellow vests
  3. Theresa May’s election

all three areas going against the neo-cons..

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

 

Political Nightmares Multiply For Europe Ahead Of Davos

Authored by Tom Luongo,

Europe’s dreams of integration are slipping away as the people wake up from the nightmare erected for them…

As we approach Act IX of the Yellow Vest protests in France and the threats of creating bank runs we get the news that both Presidents Trump and Macron will not be attending the convocation of globalists known as the World Economic Forum at Davos.

Trump’s not attending because it’s clear he’s no longer a member of The Davos Crowd and Macron isn’t because any public appearance by him will double the number of people donning high visibility safety gear and taking to the streets.

It almost feels like we’ve reached Peak Davos, with these announcements. But, clearly neither of these men are invited because in the minds of The Davos Crowd they no longer figure in their long-term plans.

Macron not attending is also a sign his government will be sacrificed on the altar of the Yellow Vests in the near future.

The Yellow Vest protests will have to be dealt with in a substantive manner that goes far beyond a few temporary injunctions against higher taxes. They are now vandalizing another symbol of middle class oppression in France, speed cameras.

All of the governments of Europe are broke. And the speed camera is simply another in a long line of instances of them trying to squeeze blood from the now impoverished and shrinking middle class.

The symbology of them smashing speed cameras and demanding their money from the banks cannot be clearer. When you take everything from someone, when he has nothing left to lose, he becomes free.

Free to strike the root, as we libertarians like to say. Go after not just the immediate source of your anger, but the root cause of it. Macron and his Prime Minister Edouard Philippe don’t have any other answer than to crack down harder.

The Wrong Brexit

It will not work. And, at some point the police will side with the people and that will be that. Macron’s disinvitation to Davos should surprise no one then.

But, France isn’t the only problem facing the EU at the moment.

It is becoming clearer by the day that Theresa May has failed to secure a yes vote for her Brexit deal. And that the most likely outcome now is a no-deal, hard Brexit.

The kind of Brexit that is the stuff of nightmares for The Davos Crowd.

A hard Brexit will not be easy for anyone, but the alternatives are far worse in the long-run. May’s deal violates British sovereignty at a level that even EU membership doesn’t.

And that was the stated goal of the EU’s lack of negotiating all along, to scare any other uppity rabble in Italy, Spain, France, etc. that the EU is inevitable and eternal.

So, don’t even bother trying to beat us, because we are invincible.

But, they aren’t. From the beginning all the leverage was on the U.K.’s side in the Brexit talks.Theresa May, either through incompetence or complicity, refused to use that leverage. It was like watching Mitt Romney run for President against Obama and refusing to attack Obama for his horrific track record.

Why? Because Romney was working for the same team, in the end.

Davos-opoly

And that team is now staring at a full-scale revolt against the one parliamentary body that gives them legitimacy in the eyes of the world, that of the European Union’s.

It’s no secret that a large swatch of MEP’s are in the pay of George Soros. It’s no secret that they introduce legislation and formal rebukes to punish countries for not towing The Davos Crowd’s party line.

So, it is with great strategic and tactical acumen that Italy’s Matteo Salvini targeted May’s European Parliamentary elections as the rallying point for the Euroskeptic movement.

These three things — France, Brexit, May’s Elections — together represent a potential trifecta of suck for The Davos Crowd. Trump attending would add to their misery.

Given the situation do you think Trump would not delight in tweaking these fatuous oilgarchs mercilessly while there? It is one of the true pleasures of his presidency, even if the rest of it is a hot mess.

I’m truly sorry he’s not going.

But as I said the other day, the more these problems come into focus the higher the probability that these events will unnerve financial markets past the point of no return.

And given the fragile stability crafted by central banks over the last decade since Lehman Bros., it won’t take much in the current environment to tip that scale into full-blown panic.

That’s the lesson of the year-end weakness in stocks. We had a classic panic cycle out of risk-on assets (stocks) into risk-off assets (bonds and gold). The next phase of this will be a realignment of those categories as tangible assets become the preferred asset classes and debt is looked upon as worthless — because it is.

And those who truck in debt and endless financialization of everything will be the ones most exposed to the breakdown. And that’s what will be the hot topic of conversation this year at Davos.

end

An excellent commentary from Claudio Grass as he explains the shockwaves from the Yellow vest movement;  why it is occurring and why contagion is spreading to other parts of Europe

(courtesy Claudio Grass)

Yellow Vests: Shockwaves Felt Around The Continent

As 2019 is set to pile pressures and challenges on the economy, with projected slowdowns and rising interest rates, the discontent will only spread…
by Claudio Grass via Claudiograss.ch

When the first demonstrations on the streets of Paris were reported seven weeks ago, nobody could have foreseen the endurance, the tenacity and the viral effect of the Yellow Vests movement. After all, the French are known to protest and to strike, it’s part and parcel of their culture. However, by the time this article is being written, protests, marches and demonstrations have broken out in a multitude of European cities.

Why was it different this time?

To begin with, it is worth taking a closer look at the situation in France, the point of origin of this “contagion”. There are a few very important elements that set the Yellow Vests apart from past protesters. For one thing, unlike previous demonstrations, this one wasn’t led by the unions, nor was it organized by any identifiable political body. The protesters had no unified or homogenous political beliefs, party affiliations or ideological motivations. In fact, through interviews and public statements of individuals taking part in the demonstrations, it would appear that any organized elements, or members of the far-left or the far-right were a slim minority among the protesters. And while those few were the ones largely involved in the violent clashes with the police and the destruction of private and public property, the crushing majority of the Yellow Vests were peaceful, non-violent and largely unaffiliated with any particular political direction.

As the movement grew and spread, many political figures have tried to co-opt it, without success. Front National’s Le Pen, hardline leftist Melenchon, far-left factions and various union leaders, all tried to place their flag on the Yellow Vests, claiming that they align with and can represent their grievances. They all failed. The Yellow Vests might contain individuals with all kinds of political inclinations, but as a whole, the movement remains apolitical, and if anything, suspicious and hostile to the political class in its entirety.

The common denominator

The evolution of the grievances themselves is also of particular interest. What started as a protest against a new fuel tax, gathered momentum and ended up being about the economy, the cost of living and the public resentment toward the establishment. These underlying problems that the Vests are protesting against are far from unique to France.

Even though Yellow-Vest-inspired protests were reported in many European countries, the most extensive demonstrations took place in Belgium, Hungary, the Netherlands and Spain. The causes and aims of most of these protests were not aligned with their French counterparts, as the citizens of different countries had different grievances. For example, in Belgium the focus was on immigration and in Spain on the Catalan independence. With the notable exception of the Hungarian protests, that we will look into later, the rest of the demonstrators’ complaints did have one thing in common: No matter what headline issue their complaints were wrapped in, the core problems were largely of an economic nature, while they also targeted the political class that is widely seen as being out of touch with reality.

The corrosion of purchasing power, the ever-increasing taxation levels, the restriction of business and free markets through regulations and manipulations, are issues most of us face in the West. Add to that mix the surge in immigration of the past years and the projected nonchalance of the political leaders, and it’s plain to see how discontent came to its current boiling point. During the demonstrations, the French chanted “Couper la tête du roi!” (cut off the king’s head!) and the sentiment appears to be shared by their protesters across Europe. Only in France, over 4,500 people have so far been arrested in connection with the Yellow Vest movement, in an environment highly corrosive to “Liberté” and “Égalité” and toxic to “Fraternité”. The combination of these issues manifests in a decrease in the quality of life of all citizens, however, it is the working and the lower-middle class that feel it the most. And it is these citizens that have been taking their grievances to the streets over the last two months.

What is especially problematic at this stage is the way the establishment is choosing to resolve those complaints and to deescalate the demonstrations. President Macron, the first one to capitulate to the demands of the Yellow Vests, chose to scrap the fuel tax hike and to provide an increase of the minimum wage, as well as a tax cut for most pensioners. These measures are set to place the county’s already strained budget under severe additional pressure. As a result, the short-term financial relief that the protesters have won is bound to be massively overshadowed by the long-term effects of their government’s excessive spending. The way President Macron, and the other leaders who will likely soon follow chose to appease the protesters and his concessions just to stay in power will only serve to make the economic situation much more dire for the public and make the problems they protested about much worse.

What lies ahead

Overall, the sharp dissatisfaction of the public with the way things are, esp. in Europe, is becoming increasingly apparent and hard to ignore. Nevertheless, short-sighted demands and corresponding capitulations do next to nothing to solve the real, underlying issues that forced the people to the streets in the first place. The refusal of the French Yellow Vests to stop their protests even after President Macron’s concessions proves that their concerns run much deeper and cannot be papered over that easily. So far, the Yellow Vest movement has shown great promise in its potential to bring about change, yet at the same time it has also shown troubling signs of a collectivist and statist inclination, that, much like the original French revolutionaries, might simply replace one centralized and illiberal system with another, updated version of the same idea.

This is highlighted by the exception of Hungarian protests, fueled by complaints that were of a very different nature than those in the rest of Europe. While the French, the Dutch, the Belgians, the Spanish and the rest of the protesters stood up against state overreach and the added pressures on personal and financial freedom, such as excessive taxation, unpopular immigration policies, denial of self-determination and similar issues, the Hungarians complained about the exact opposite. Opposing a wave of reforms misleadingly dubbed “slave labor” laws, the Hungarians actually protested a move by the government to throw out Soviet-era regulations and to liberalize and open up the labor market. By striking down laws that hitherto limited the amount of overtime that a worker has the right to accept, the reforms actually pave the road for a much healthier, competitive and robust labor force, where the state gets out of the way and each individual is free to work and earn more, if they so choose. The opposition and the resulting protests against this move are therefore a very worrying sign as to the true nature of the protesters’ motivations, a concern that might not be unique to Hungary.

In this backdrop of social unrest and contagion of demonstrations, it is important to remember that protests alone cannot be enough to solve anything. Without a viable solution, reasonable counter-proposals to the existing system and an open dialog on the core problems, one cannot hope for progress to be made. It still remains to be seen if the Yellow Vest movement will prove to be yet another political pressure group that still believes in centralized authority or if they see that the solution lies in the competition of ideas and in the understanding that “man is not a means to an end, but an end in themselves.”

As 2019 is set to pile additional pressures and challenges on the economy, with projected slowdowns and rising interest rates, the discontent will only spread. How this discontent will be vented and whether it will be productively or destructively channeled, will likely be defining questions for the long-term, not only socially and politically, but also economically. Nevertheless, for short- and mid-term, hopes for serious structural reforms, potent enough to steer us clear of the next debt-fueled crisis seem overoptimistic and even naive.

From an investor’s point of view, it might still too early to tell exactly when this avalanche will be triggered, however it is becoming increasingly clear that the current situation is unsustainable. As political and social tensions continue to rise and as the economy slows down enough to reveal the deep cracks in the system, responsible investors would be wise to be prepared and to plan ahead. In tumultuous times, precious metals are set to do what they always have: protect one’s wealth, retain purchasing power and provide a much-needed hedge and isolation from heightened systemic risks.

Claudio Grass, Hünenberg See, Switzerland

www.claudiograss.ch

end

It is possible that on Tuesday’s vote, Theresa May could be removed as Corbyn is contemplating a non confidence vote

(courtesy zerohedge)

Theresa May Could Be Removed As Soon As Wednesday If Vote On Brexit Deal Fails

After months of wrangling with the EU over the details of the Irish backstop, followed by a delayed Commons vote as May wrangled with intransigent Brexiteers wary (hysterically so, some would argue) of becoming “trapped” in the customs union, Theresa May’s supremely unpopular Brexit deal is finally expected to be called for a vote on Tuesday – that is, barring another last-minute delay.

According to the latest round of estimates from the British Press and Wall Street analysts, May’s deal is expected to go down hard – possibly by more than 200 votes.

But as anybody who has been following the increasingly tedious negotiations should understand, this is part of May’s plan. Or at least it was until very recently.

Despite numerous reports about rumored “Plan Bs” or hints that No. 10 might be considering a delay of Article 50 or even a second referendum, since the withdrawal agreement and its accompanying political statement were finalized by the EU, the only plan remotely resembling a cohesive strategy that has emerged would be to continue calling the deal up for successive votes until the EU offers more concessions or May runs out the clock until Brexit Day, effectively forcing MPs to chose between her deal and a ‘no deal’ Brexit (which May and her government have hysterically warned would be an unmitigated disaster).

Corbyn

But any flexibility May might have had to pursue this strategy disappeared last week as rebellious Tory MPs joined with Labour and the DUP to pass a series of amendments to wrest control of the Brexit process from May. One amendment passed by the Commons makes it so that a ‘no deal’ exit would require Parliament’s explicit approval. Otherwise, Brexit Day would be delayed.

Another requires May to return to the table with a ‘Plan B’ deal – what May has interpreted as an ever-so-slightly modified version of her deal – within three days of the agreement being finalized.

With her hands now tied, another threat has emerged over the weekend. After waffling on the issue last week, it appears Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn is intimating once again that he could table a no confidence motion in the prime minister’s government if her deal is defeated on Tuesday. Though many believed May would be safe for at least a year after she survived a Tory no-confidence vote, the prospect that the DUP and even a few Tory rebels could join with Labour to topple May’s government is surely provoking anxiety as the removal of May as prime minister would clear the way for a general election and inject even more chaos into the already turbulent Brexit process.

May

The Observer reported Sunday that Labour MPs have been told to prepare for a no-confidence vote as early as Tuesday evening in an attempt to force a general election.

Messages have been sent to Labour MPs, even those who are unwell, to ensure their presence both for the “meaningful vote” on the prime minister’s Brexit blueprint on Tuesday and the following day. Labour whips have told MPs the no-confidence vote is likely to be tabled within hours of a government loss, with the actual vote taking place on Wednesday.

Messages have been sent to Labour MPs, even those who are unwell, to ensure their presence both for the “meaningful vote” on the prime minister’s Brexit blueprint on Tuesday and the following day. Labour whips have told MPs the no-confidence vote is likely to be tabled within hours of a government loss, with the actual vote taking place on Wednesday.

The news comes before what promises to be one of the most tumultuous 24 hours in recent parliamentary history in which, barring another delay, May will put her Brexit deal to parliament despite deep and widespread opposition across the Commons, including from many MPs inside her own party.

A senior shadow cabinet member said: “There is now recognition that we cannot wait any longer. If May goes down to defeat and she does not resign and call an election, this is the moment we have to act.”

Assuming May survives the motion, it’s expected that May will call a series of “indicative votes” to determine what alternatives to her plan would be more palatable to MPs. One option reportedly gaining momentum would be permanent membership in the customs union for the entire UK.

May, meanwhile, has offered a “package” of reforms – including concessions on workers-rights and seeking more assurances from the EU that would give Parliament more power over whether to enter or exit the backstop.

All the while, May has continued with “Project Fear”, warning on Saturday of “catastrophe” if MPs don’t back her Brexit deal. Writing in the Sunday Express, the prime minister warned that allowing a ‘no deal’ exit would be an “unforgivable” breach of trust (despite the fact that it’s now far more likely that Brexit Day will be delayed, with the Guardian reporting Sunday that the EU has begun preparations for Brexit to be delayed until at least July).

A quick glance at the public opinion polls would suggest that the British people now regret their choice after being subjected to months of chaotic headlines and seemingly interminable partisan bickering.

Brexit

Which would suggest that a new plan is gradually taking shape: keep delaying and delaying Brexit Day until people forget all about the referendum and move on with their lives

END

Bill Blain explains the mess that the UK is in with respect to Brexit talks and the huge costs the country will endure if it leaves.  It also will endure huge costs if it stays in the union

(courtesy Bill Blain)

 

Blain: “The Brexit Vote Will Be A Complete And Utter Clusterf**k”

Blain’s Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain

Unfortunately… I suppose I should comment about the B word. I shall start by admitting – like everyone else – I really don’t have a clue where we’re go from here. The political maths doesn’t work. There are no apparent solutions. There are multiple scenarios to game – but none of them seem to lead anywhere positive.. The only thing I’m completely sure of: tomorrow, as MPs finally vote on the UK/EU divorce bill, we will hear lots of UK politicians spouting pointless blustering pompous nonsense moving us forward not a jot.

But, I also sniff great market opportunity. If you could afford to magically remove all UK chips from the table, you probably would… But you can’t. Where else would you invest? If you think British politics is crazy… tell me where isn’t? Yep, better to spread your bets across a globe of dysfunctional politics – for that is the reality of the new Trumpist populist age.

The second issue for UK Inc is more fundamental. Alongside our bafflement at the amateur blundering ineptitude of the UK political system leading us to this place of befuddlement, I can’t help but wonder if we’re missing some fundamental positives about UK Inc, that the pros and cons of Brexit have been massively overexaggerated, and this is the time to buying? What if things are NOT really so fundamentally hopeless and bad as the hyped-up political rhetoric and verbiage suggests? What if  Brexit isn’t so bad, or a good compromise can be found?

In the next few days I think I can confidently predict a complete and utter clusterf**k in parliament, the absolute disintegration of political common sense, unprecedented journalistic hyperbole, and profound disbelief across the economy. Confidence will collapse, the tinned goods shelves at the supermarkets will be empty. End of the world.. again.

It will be the perfect moment to scoop up UK Inc.

Is UK housing really so over-priced? Are consumers about to stop consuming? Are the prospects for our world class aerospace, auto and computing industries really so limited? I would not for one moment try to argue Brexit will be painless. There will be damage, a loss of trust, and division. Leaving the EU will be costly. But, so would staying in. Pros and cons, but the UK voted to leave, without understanding how. It’s also more likely we’ll find a compromise.. somewhere? There are good comprises that will benefit both the UK and Europe to be found.

The Remainers assure us everything can and will be fixed if we reject Brexit, vote again, and embrace Europe. Sure… but nonsense. That won’t restore a single job at Land Rover – which is losing money because of ill-executed diesel legislation. It won’t save Jaguar workers – sorry, but they don’t build cars folk want to buy.

The bottom line is any economy has great intrinsic value if producers are producing goods folk want to buy, and folk have the resources to buy. The UK is not going to switch off overnight on whatever Brexit vote is finally (dis)agreed. Trade will find its own level. The UK has historically been rich in inventive, commercial and legislative skills – these provide a base (not perfect, but functional) that makes UK Inc worth far more than the zero value some now ascribe to it.

Its interesting to hear Brexiteer fund managers – like Crispin Odey, reversing bets against the pound. The FT reports he’s long sterling, and said: “Markets have already decided.. Brexit isn’t going to happen.. The pound should rally; its very oversold.” He’s also being buying retail stocks like Dixons. A soft-Brexit (much like the one on the table for tomorrow) would be massively sterling positive.

Sure, the whole Brexit thing has been deeply flawed since the get-go. Tough. Let’s get over it. And staying in Europe doesn’t mean Europe would be fixed. I have a lot of sympathy for the perspective of being a small cog in a functional global economy than a big cog in a barely working Europe. Personally, I just don’t think Europe works – its imbalanced in favour of the few.

To give an example: tomorrow I’ll be in Vienna, taking part in a debate on how much damage Global Trade wars will do to the economies of Central and Eastern Europe. I’ll be arguing its inevitable they will suffer because they have become little more than manufacturing floors for German industry – if Deutschland’s autos sniffle, these economies will be in extremis.

But, it doesn’t have to be that way: rather than being straightjacketed into servitor nation status, they could follow more lucrative value-added paths based not just on innovation and entrepreneurship, but on stronger national platforms where corporate governance, politics, judiciary, and trade are reinforced across these economies. However, that would require investment in education, law and order – which is impossible while austerity is the EU enforced rule, and austerity results in populist national governments.

I should imagine a few emails on that comment – that EU austerity has caused populist politics. Its certainly contributed to the political phenomena that’s occurred across Occidental economies.. Worth bearing in mind..

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

/TURKEY/USA/SYRIA/KURDS

Trump threatens to devastate Turkey economically if the Kurds are attacked. This sends the lira sliding

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Threatens To “Devastate Turkey Economically” If Kurds Attacked, Sends Lira Sliding

In the fiercest words directed at Turkey in a long time, and certainly since Trump and Erdogan managed to patch up the rocky diplomatic relationship between the two nations over the fate of (since released) Pastor Brunson, President Trump on Sunday evening put President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on notice, threatening to devastate Turkey economically if they hit Kurds”— which has sent the Turkish lira sliding.

Trump further confirmed in no uncertain terms that his announced “long overdue” troop pullout from Syria has begun, but that it’s been initiated while hitting the little remaining ISIS territorial caliphate hard” and “from many directions”.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Starting the long overdue pullout from Syria while hitting the little remaining ISIS territorial caliphate hard, and from many directions. Will attack again from existing nearby base if it reforms. Will devastate Turkey economically if they hit Kurds. Create 20 mile safe zone….

The warning to Turkey came as Ankara has mustered military forces, including tank regiments, along the Syrian border and deep in Afrin after last year’s ‘Operation Olive Branch’ plunged pro-Turkish forces across the border inside Syrian Kurdish enclaves.

Last week Turkey’s leaders, including the defense minister, described preparations underway for another major Turkish assault on US-backed Kurdish positions east of the Euphrates, following the exit of American advisers based on Trump’s previously announced pullout. But it appears Trump is now putting Ankara on notice, and is prepared to thwart any Turkish invasion plans by establishing a “20 mile safe zone”.

Presumably this “safe zone” will be towards protecting American forces while precise exit logistics take shape, and will occur simultaneously to the US pounding remnant ISIS positions; howeverthe details remain uncertain.

Trump followed his tweet threatening to “devastate Turkey economically” if the Kurds are hit, with another repeat promise to “stop the endless wars!” — in what appears a further sign he’s currently in a fight with the deep state and hawks within his own administration over Syria policy.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….Likewise, do not want the Kurds to provoke Turkey. Russia, Iran and Syria have been the biggest beneficiaries of the long term U.S. policy of destroying ISIS in Syria – natural enemies. We also benefit but it is now time to bring our troops back home. Stop the ENDLESS WARS!

Among those recently accused of “going rogue” after weeks of mixed and contradictory messages coming from administration and Pentagon officials over the Syria draw down is National Security Advisor John Bolton.

In possibly an attempt to clean up the mess made by his latest trip to Israel and Turkey, the latter country in which he was snubbed by President Erdogan, Bolton said during an interview with the Hugh Hewitt radio show on Friday that Trump elicited a guarantee from Erdogan to not attack those particular Kurdish militias that have assisted the US in the anti-ISIS campaign. This was reportedly during the Dec. 14th call that appears the catalyst for Trump’s full US troop draw down in Syria.

Predictably, the mainstream media has expressed “outrage” that Trump could speak so aggressively with “a NATO ally”…

Jim Sciutto

@jimsciutto

Quite a threat to a NATO ally and perhaps deserved but notably not a threat Trump has made to Russia for outright invasions of E. Ukraine and Crimea.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Starting the long overdue pullout from Syria while hitting the little remaining ISIS territorial caliphate hard, and from many directions. Will attack again from existing nearby base if it reforms. Will devastate Turkey economically if they hit Kurds. Create 20 mile safe zone….

Bolton explained that Erdogan agreed; however, it could come down to definitions and labels as the Kurdish core of the US-armed and trained Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) — the YPG — is officially designated by Turkey a terrorist extension of the outlawed PKK.

But given Trump’s power to send the Turkish lira tumbling with a mere Tweet – already after it hit new lows last week – the Turks (or at least TRY trader) no doubt believe that Trump is capable of following up on threats.

END

Turkey dismisses Trump’s threat to devastate the Turkish economy

(courtesy zerohedge)

Turkey Dismisses Trump’s Threat To Devastate Economy Over Kurds

Turkey has brushed off a Sunday threat by President Trump to “devastate” them economically if they attack the Kurdish militia (YPG) in northern Syria, which US forces have fought alongside against the Islamic State (IS).

Turkey regards the YPG as terrorists.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Starting the long overdue pullout from Syria while hitting the little remaining ISIS territorial caliphate hard, and from many directions. Will attack again from existing nearby base if it reforms. Will devastate Turkey economically if they hit Kurds. Create 20 mile safe zone….

You cannot get anywhere by threatening Turkey economically,” said Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu.

Trump announced in December that the US would withdraw all troops from Syria as the Islamic State had been “defeated,” a move which shocked allies and resulted in the resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. Concerns remain that Kurds from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which are are under YPG leadership, would fall under attack by Turkey once the US withdraws.

The warning to Turkey came as Ankara has mustered military forces, including tank regiments, along the Syrian border and deep in Afrin after last year’s ‘Operation Olive Branch’ plunged pro-Turkish forces across the border inside Syrian Kurdish enclaves.

Last week Turkey’s leaders, including the defense minister, described preparations underway for another major Turkish assault on US-backed Kurdish positions east of the Euphrates, following the exit of American advisers based on Trump’s previously announced pullout. That said, Trump said on Sunday that he would thwart any Turkish invasion plans with a “20 mile safe zone,”

Presumably this “safe zone” will be towards protecting American forces while precise exit logistics take shape, and will occur simultaneously to the US pounding remnant ISIS positions; howeverthe details remain uncertain.

Trump followed his tweet with another repeat promise to “stop the endless wars!” — in what appears a further sign he’s currently in a fight with the deep state and hawks within his own administration over Syria policy.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….Likewise, do not want the Kurds to provoke Turkey. Russia, Iran and Syria have been the biggest beneficiaries of the long term U.S. policy of destroying ISIS in Syria – natural enemies. We also benefit but it is now time to bring our troops back home. Stop the ENDLESS WARS!

Could the US really hurt Turkey’s economy?

Ankara has rebuffed Trump’s threats, with Çavuşoğlu saying: “We have said multiple times that we will not fear or be deterred by any threat,” and that “Strategic alliances should not be discussed over Twitter or social media.”

That said, previous US sanctions have hurt Turkey in the past. In August, the Trump administration slapped Turkey with sanctions and trade tariffs while a US pastor was detained, which caused the Lira to fall precipitously. Two months later, Pastor Andrew Brunson was released.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, meanwhile, said through a spokesman that he expected the US to “honor our strategic partnership,” adding “Terrorists can’t be your partners and allies.”

Over the weekend, before Mr Trump’s latest tweets, Mr Pompeo said he had spoken to Mr Cavusoglu by phone and was “optimistic” that an agreement could be reached with Turkey to protect Kurdish fighters.

Mr Pompeo said the US recognised “the Turkish people’s right and Mr Erdogan’s right to defend their country from terrorists”.

“We also know that those fighting alongside us for all this time deserve to be protected as well,” he added.

Mr Erdogan has spoken angrily about American support for the Kurdish YPG militia, and vowed to crush it.

Mr Cavusoglu said Turkey was “not against” the idea of a secure zone – but was targeting “a terrorist organisation trying to divide Syria”. –BBC

There are currently around 2,000 US military personnel deployed in northern Syria, which first arrived in autumn 2015 when former President Obama sent in small teams of special forces to train and advise YPG fighters. The move came after several failed attempts at arming and training Syrian Arab rebel groups to battle IS militants. In the ensuing years, the number of US troops in Syria sharply increased – while a network of airfields and bases have been established in an arc across the northeastern region of the country.

end

Iran

Today one of Iran’s military cargo planes crashes killing 15.  Iran is desperate to obtain airplane spare parts as its passenger airline industry is in shambles.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Iranian Military Cargo Plane Crashes, Killing 15

A major military aviation disaster has unfolded in Iran on Monday at an airport belonging to Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The Iranian army confirms 15 dead after a Boeing 707 military cargo plane crashed reportedly due to bad weather about 25 miles west of the Iranian capital.

Image via Iranian mediaOf the sixteen people on board, one survived — a flight engineer who was taken to the hospital — in the crash near Fath airport, located near Karaj in the central Iranian province of Alborz.

Reports say that the plane attempted an emergency landing after which it skidded off the runway and into a residential neighborhood where it slammed into a wall and engulfed in flames. State media footage showed residential homes and complexes burning amidst the wreckage.

The army said in a statement the aircraft had been carrying supplies: “A Boeing cargo 707 plane carrying meat from Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan had an emergency landing at Fath airport today … the flight engineer has been dispatched to the hospital.”

Image via Getty“It exited the runway during the landing and caught fire after hitting the wall at the end of the runway,” it said. Though according to Reuters there were initially conflicting reports over who owned the plane, an army spokesman later confirmed the aircraft was owned by the government of Iran and that all aboard were Iranian citizens.

Embedded video

ALI@AliSalari1965

Video footage of the Kyrgyz Boeing 707 cargo plane crashing near the city of Shahriar, west of Tehran, #Iran.
10 on board reportedly killed. Reports indicate seven bodies have been recovered.

Voice heard saying: “Don’t take any footage!”

Regional reports called the aircraft “decades old” — which suggests Washington’s latest rounds of sanctions on Iran, targeting in part the aviation industry including civilian airplane parts, could have played a role. A number of international reports are already suggesting precisely this scenario:

The crash of the jetliner marked just the latest aviation disaster for Iran, which hoped to replace its aging fleet under terms of the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

But instead, President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the accord in May scuttled billions of dollars in planned sales by Airbus and Boeing Co. to the Islamic Republic, only increasing the danger for passengers in Iran planes.

Given that the Iranian air force does operate Boeing 707s and that state media and officials have used the word “martyrdom” to describe the fate of the crash victims — a word commonly used for casualties during military service — it was likely an air force owned and operated aircraft.

But it is perhaps only a matter of time before other tragic aviation disasters hit Iran’s civilian passenger side given the impact of sanctions, which Tehran has sought relief from through Europe.

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

An excellent commentary from Tom Luongo on how the USA is losing influence around the globe

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

Embarrassing Speeches: Signs Of A Dying Empire

Authored by Tom Luongo,

“What are you reading my lord?” — Polonius

“Words.” — Hamlet

Something has changed in U.S. politics. And it may finally signal something changing for the better. Since the announcement (but no real follow through) to end our military involvement in Syria what passes for our statesmen – John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – have been ignored, mocked or both.

Bolton attempted to box Trump in on not leaving Syria while Israel chest-thumped about how they will not yield an inch to Iran. Turkish President Erdogan publicly lambasted him with no response from President Trump.

Or anyone else for that matter.

When was the last time you heard of a major U.S. political figure go overseas and be refused a meeting with a foreign head of state, publicly upbraided and sent home like an irrelevant flunkie?

I can’t think of one.

Bolton came into the Middle East and made demands like he was the President which Bolton knew were clearly red lines for Erdogan — guaranteeing the safety of the Syrian Kurds.

And he did this from Jerusalem.

The insult couldn’t be plainer. The lack of Bolton’s self-awareness and understanding of the situation was embarrassing. And it left Erdogan the perfect opportunity to call out the Trump Administration’s policies as beholden to a foreign power, Israel.

Pompeo’s Pomp

Next up we have His Rotundity, Mike Pompeo. He goes into Cairo and gives a speech which again shows a stunning lack of specific knowledge of history. Pompeo spent most of the speech doing what he does best.

Misrepresenting history of U.S. involvement in the Middle East so ardently one really thought he should have done it in his private man place.

The other thing he did however, is what got my attention. And I have Moon of Alabamaagain to thank for this. Pompeo outlined Trump’s vision for the future of U.S. intervention in the Middle East.

And that intervention involves something Trump is good at and Pompeo isn’t.

Words.

From Pompeo’s speech (H/T MoA):

In Syria, the United States will use diplomacy and work with our partners to expel every last Iranian boot, and work through the UN-led process to bring peace and stability to the long-suffering Syrian people. There will be no U.S. reconstruction assistance for areas of Syria held by Assad until Iran and its proxy forces withdraw and until we see irreversible progress towards a political resolution.

— MIKE POMPEO, SECRERTARY OF STATE

To be honest, the Trump administration actually engaging in something approximating diplomacy would be a welcome start. Because, to this point, there has been precious little diplomacy in the way the administration as comported itself.

Whether this was by design or a consequence of the paralysis imposed on it by a rebellious Deep State and political opposition is, frankly, as irrelevant as most of the words that come out of Pompeo’s mouth on most days.

But, grudgingly, I’ll concede this is a good sign. As always with Trump, the follow-through is what’s important. He should know that from his golf game.

Back in the Iraq-SSR

To whit, the Asia Times just ran an article wondering what is Trump up to in Iraq? Pulling the troops out of Syria only to relocate them to Iraq to retrench there after another embarrassment — recent electoral loss of our guy Abadi — seems at odds with Pompeo’s words.

Baghdad played host to a kick-off conference of the new NATO Mission in Iraq or (NMI).

According to the press release issued by NATO’s Allied Joint Force Command in Naples, the conference was attended by “key leaders from across the Iraqi Security and Defence sector. They included the Iraqi Chief of Staff, General Othman Al-Ghanimi” and representatives from various international partner missions, organizations and entities such as the Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve, the European Union Advise Mission in Iraq, the United Nations Assistance Mission Iraq, and the Office of Security Cooperation-Iraq and Diplomatic Missions.

The NMI Commander, Canadian general Dany Fortin, introduced the mission’s mandate, vision and aim as a “new iteration of a long-standing relationship” between NATO and Iraq, one that will bring together “expertise and best practice in security/defence sector reform, institution building and training and education from the entire Alliance and its partners.”

We’re cozying up to the Iraqi military as NMI has the backing of prominent Iraqi generals, while the Iraqi political leadership, no longer ‘our guys,’ refused to meet with Trump when he landed in what Trump called ‘our base.’ But we have no bases in Iraq. We are there at the pleasure of the Iraqi government, a government that now no longer necessarily wants us there.

Again, a U.S. official, this time Trump himself, using the wrong words and the wrong diplomatic protocol now wants to engage in dialogue with people who we’ve invaded, abused, spat on and murdered.

So, is this a change in direction in U.S. foreign policy or a response to the ‘wrong people’ coming to power politically and the U.S. looking to shore up support with the military?

In other words, has anything really changed?

Face the Face

For another example I turn to U.S. Ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, who just sent a letter to both Uniper and BASF to stop work on the Nordstream 2 pipeline or else face further U.S. sanctions.

The Bild report raised the ire of some German politicians in Berlin. Fabio De Masi, a top Left Party MP, demanded that the government reprimand Grenell, saying: “The US Ambassador seems to make an impression that he is a viceroy of the Washington emperor.

This is the real face of Trumpian diplomacy. Stop acting in your own best interest or we’ll bankrupt you.

The situation at this point is pretty clear. While our military strength is formidable it is not, however, a blank check to enforce political edicts anymore.

In a world where U.S. prosperity is dependent on the prosperity of the entire world, threatening financial ruin is just as much of a bluff as threatening physical ruin.

And we’re seeing that bluff being called a lot. Country after country are now simply showing U.S. strongmen like Pompeo, Bolton, Mattis and even Trump himself, the door and there is little to no real response from them.

  • Trump tried to scare Erdogan into submission with sanctions and a collapse of the lira last year. When it didn’t work, Erdogan knew where his allies were. He acted accordingly, siding with Putin’s energy security for Turkey rather than a mercurial U.S.
  • India did the same thing over the purchase of Russian S-400 missile defense systems. They said some nice things, invited us to talks and then sent us packing without a deal.
  • Germany refuses to yield on Nordstream 2.
  • Qatar was the first to pull out of the Syrian conflict and then turned around and negotiated a major exploration and development deal with Iran in the North Pars gas field.
  • Even Japan is in constant talks with Russia about working out their differences officially (again, against U.S. wishes) and sign a peace treaty. Japan needs Russian energy badly and Putin is patient enough to wait Prime Minister Shinzo Abe out while calling out his hypocrisy.

War of Words

All of these words and ineffectual bloviations point to the same thing, despite Trump’s bluster. The U.S. isn’t respected the same way it once was. And the countries caught between the growing stature of China and Russia and the fading glory of the U.S. sense this shift and are placing their bets accordingly.

Trump senses this and, in many ways, doesn’t care about them. He’s focused on what he sees as old debts, not future liabilities. He’s worried about getting everyone to pay up and pay us back rather than excising the sunk costs and shoring up the finances at home.

He’s coming around to the view that these commitments — Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, etc. — can never recoup the losses. So, while Putin, Xi, Erdogan and Modi wait him out on when we’re leaving Asia, he’s trying to wait out the Deep State’s and his staff’s obsession with staying here.

In the meantime all we’re left with is a lot of words, full of sound and fury, signifying the end of the geopolitics as we’ve known it.

 

.

 

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

/VENEZUELA

Pompeo calls for regime change in Venezuela after the “illegitimate” Maduro re election

(courtesy zero hedge)

Pompeo Calls For Regime Change In Venezuela After “Illegitimate” Maduro Re-election

While standing in a Gulf Arab capital on Saturday, continuing his eight day tour of the Middle East primarily to assure allies that the US hasn’t “abandoned” to region to Iran with its impending Syria pullout, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo addressed another “pariah state” problem, but thousands of miles away in Latin America, ironically while standing in an “allied” Gulf autocratic sheikhdom.

Speaking to reporters in the UAE capital of Abu Dhabi he spoke about regime change — this time not in the Middle East — but in Venezuela, another country under various forms of sanctions by the US for over a decade. In surprisingly provocative comments Pompeo threw the United States’ full weight behind Venezuela’s opposition seeking to depose President Nicolás Maduro, who days prior on Thursday was inaugurated for another, much-disputed six-year term, which many Western leaders have refused to recognize.

In some of the most unrestrained comments expressing future administration plans for the Maduro regime to date, Pompeo said the US would work with allied partners to restore democracy there.

“The Maduro regime is illegitimate and the United States will work diligently to restore a real democracy to that country,” Pompeo said to reporters. “We are very hopeful we can be a force for good to allow the region to come together to deliver that.”

His words followed on a previous State Department statement from earlier in the day expressing US support to the  head Venezuela’s opposition-run congress, Juan Guaido, a day after he expressed willingness to step into the presidency temporarily to replace Maduro. “The people of Venezuela deserve to live in freedom in a democratic society governed by the rule of law,” State Department spokesman Robert Palladino said.

The official statement, also released from Abu Dhabi during Pompeo’s trip, continued the Washington theme which spans multiple administrations of “orderly transition” in Caracas: “It is time to begin the orderly transition to a new government. We support the National Assembly’s call for all Venezuelans to work together, peacefully, to restore constitutional government and build a better future.”

“The United States government will continue to use the full weight of US economic and diplomatic power to press for the restoration of democracy in Venezuela,” the State Dept. said.

This comes after days ago Vice President Pence wrote earlier this took to Twitter  to slam the “sham” election that had led Maduro to a second term: “The US does not recognize the illegitimate result of a stolen election,” Pence tweeted. “We’ll continue to stand with the people of Venezuela and against Maduro’s corrupt regime until freedom and democracy prevail in Venezuela!”

However, given that the socialist country has already fallen deep into a perfect storm of starvation, disease, a lack of healthcare, extreme violence, and infrastructure collapse, the usual Washington playbook of “more rounds of sanctions” and calls for regime change to “restore democracy” will most likely only fail.

From Iraq to Iran to Syria to Libya  or beyond that other comparisons from the 20th century — the historical record shows sanctions and political “isolation” only increases the people’s dependence on the regime, in many ways strengthening its grip of power, while compounding the misery of the masses. The regime can then legitimately claim a destabilizing foreign power is subverting the country’s independence, resulting in “blowback” for the US and its policy planners.

end

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1458 DOWN .0008 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES RED

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108;11  DOWN 0.288 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…DEADLY TO OUR YEN SHORTERS

GBP/USA 1.2861     UP   0.0031  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3279 UP .0016 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1458/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED  DOWN 18.07 POINTS OR 0.71% 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 368.96 POINTS OR 1.38%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.03%  /EUROPEAN BOURSES RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning CLOSED HOLIDAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 368.96 POINTS OR 1.38% 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 18.07 PTS OR 0.71%

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.03%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED HOLIDAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1293.80

silver:$15.59

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.68% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.02 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 95.63 DOWN 5 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.68% DOWN 3    in basis point(s) yield from FRIDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.02%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.42% DOWN 3   IN basis point yield from FRIDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.84 DOWN 1     POINTS in basis point yield from FRIDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 132 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.23%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.61% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1479 UP   .0013 or 13 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 108.20 DOWN  0.203 OR 20 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2868 UP .0037( POUND UP 37  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 15 basis points to 1.3278

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.7681-  ON SHORE  (YUAN DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7639(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.4876

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.02%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 0 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 2.70 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.03 UP 2  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 95.54 DOWN 13 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 63.16 OR 0.91%

German Dax : DOWN DOWN 31.55 POINTS OR 0.29%

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 18.59 POINTS OR 0.39%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 58.50 POINTS OR 0.66%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 118.61 POINTS OR 0.61%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 51.29 12:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 59.87 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    67.01  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.12 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 12 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.4876 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.23 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :   50.61

 

BRENT :  59.10

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.70%…

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.05%/

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1469 ( UP   3 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.17 DOWN 0.240 (YEN UP 24 BASIS POINTS/..deadly to yen shorters

.

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 95.60 DOWN  7 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2868 UP 35 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.4483

the Russian rouble:  67.04 DOWN.15 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 15 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3276 DOWN 13 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.7681  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.7622 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.24%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 86.11 POINTS OR 0.36%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 65.56 POINTS OR 0.94%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  18.84 CLOSED UP 0.65 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.787%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/

 

FROM 2.798

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Trump Trade Talk Rescues US Equities After Shanghai Shitshow

Another day, another attempt to buy the dip to make sure everything looks awesome…

 

Ugly China data sparked weakness in stocks (no bad news is good news here)…

 

European markets were not pretty…

 

US Equity futures were down pretty good overnight, but a combination of Trump commenting once again on “very good China talks” and the US cash market open, prompted the no ubiquitous buying spree to erase a lot of the day’s damage…

0933ET TRUMP SAYS U.S. DOING VERY WELL WITH CHINA

On the cash side, Trannies moved green, but the rest of the majors – despite a valiant effort – were unable to make it…

US Equities are back in the box between 50 and 61.8% retrace of the Dec drop…

 

PG&E was pulverized on bankruptcy headlines…

 

After disappointing Citi FICC earnings, the bank traded down almost 2% in pre-market but was then panic bid during the day session…

 

FANG Stocks also saw the dip bought but were unable to break back to even… this is the first down day for FANGs in 7 days…

 

Biotechs suffered first loss in 10 days..

 

VIX and Credit decoupled (Credit worse as VIX compressed)…

 

HY Credit markets dropped for the second day in a row (after 6 straight up)…

 

The Dollar was flat overnight but selling began as US markets opened…

 

Cable popped above 1.29 – near two month highs – ahead of tomorrow’s critical Brexit vote…

 

And while cable has been rallying, so has the demand for protection…

 

Cryptos jumped on the day, on the back of China and Russia headlines…

 

Copper and crude were weaker (China) as PMs clung to very modest gains on the day…

 

WTI slumped back to a $50 handle on heavy volume…

 

The short-term silver lining of lower gas prices at the pump, may be short-lived…

 

 

And while WTI tumbled, Nattie soared on the heels of concerns over supply amid the snowstorm coming to NYC…

 

Finally, just one thing… forward earnings expectations continue to slide…

“Probably nothing”

Trump Trade Talk Rescues US Equities After Shanghai Shitshow

 

Another day, another attempt to buy the dip to make sure everything looks awesome…

 

 

 

Ugly China data sparked weakness in stocks (no bad news is good news here)…

 

European markets were not pretty…

 

 

US Equity futures were down pretty good overnight, but a combination of Trump commenting once again on “very good China talks” and the US cash market open, prompted the no ubiquitous buying spree to erase a lot of the day’s damage…

0933ET TRUMP SAYS U.S. DOING VERY WELL WITH CHINA

 

On the cash side, Trannies moved green, but the rest of the majors – despite a valiant effort – were unable to make it…

 

US Equities are back in the box between 50 and 61.8% retrace of the Dec drop…

 

 

PG&E was pulverized on bankruptcy headlines…

 

 

After disappointing Citi FICC earnings, the bank traded down almost 2% in pre-market but was then panic bid during the day session…

 

 

FANG Stocks also saw the dip bought but were unable to break back to even… this is the first down day for FANGs in 7 days…

 

 

Biotechs suffered first loss in 10 days..

 

 

VIX and Credit decoupled (Credit worse as VIX compressed)…

 

 

HY Credit markets dropped for the second day in a row (after 6 straight up)…

 

 

The Dollar was flat overnight but selling began as US markets opened…

 

 

Cable popped above 1.29 – near two month highs – ahead of tomorrow’s critical Brexit vote…

 

 

And while cable has been rallying, so has the demand for protection…

 

 

Cryptos jumped on the day, on the back of China and Russia headlines…

 

 

Copper and crude were weaker (China) as PMs clung to very modest gains on the day…

 

 

WTI slumped back to a $50 handle on heavy volume…

 

 

The short-term silver lining of lower gas prices at the pump, may be short-lived…

 

 

And while WTI tumbled, Nattie soared on the heels of concerns over supply amid the snowstorm coming to NYC…

 

 

Finally, just one thing… forward earnings expectations continue to slide…

 

“Probably nothing”

 

market trading/

 

 

market data/

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

Brandon Smith is one smart cookie and he must be followed.  He states quite categorically that the uSA will continue to raise interest rates and crash the system.  The elites want a single global government and central bank and when this crashes, the iMF and the World Bank will come to the rescue of nations. Stock markets will fall especially around the middle of the month when the Fed cuts its balance sheet the most.  Main street (as we have shown to you) has been collapsing since 2018..the stock market which is a lagging indicator will collapse this year.

a must read…

Brandon Smith

The Crash Of The “Everything Bubble” Started In 2018 – Here’s What Comes Next In 2019

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

In 2018, a very significant economic change occurred which sealed the fate of the U.S. economy as well as numerous other economies around the globe. This change was the reversal of central bank policy. The era of stimulus and artificial support of various markets, including stocks, is beginning to fade away as the Federal Reserve pursues policy tightening, including higher interest rates and larger cuts to its balance sheet.

I warned of this change under new Chairman Jerome Powell at the beginning of 2018 in my article ‘New Fed Chairman Will Trigger Stock Market Crash In 2018’. The crash had a false start in February/March,as stocks were saved by massive corporate buybacks through the 2nd and 3rd quarters. However, as interest rates edged higher and Trump’s tax cut cash ran thin, corporate stock buybacks began to dwindle in the final quarter of the year.

As I predicted in September in my article ‘The Everything Bubble: When Will It Finally Crash?’, the crash accelerated in December, as the Fed raised interest rates to their neutral rate of inflation and increased balance sheet cuts to $50 billion per month.  In 2019, this crash will continue as the fed resumes cuts once again in mid-January.

It is important to note that when we speak of a crash in alternative economic circles, we are not only talking about stock markets. Mainstream economists often claim that stocks are a predictive indicator for the future health of the wider economy. This is incorrect. Stocks are actually a trailing indicator; they tend to crash well after all other fundamentals have started to decline.

Housing markets have been plunging in terms of sales as well as value. The Fed’s interest rate hikes are translating to much higher mortgage rates in the wake of overly inflated prices and weaker consumer wages. Corporate buyers in real estate, which have been propping up the housing market for years, are now unable to continue life support. Corporate debt across the board is at all-time highs not seen since the crash of 2008, and with higher interest rates, borrowing cheap capital is no longer an option.

In November 2018, home sales posted the steepest decline in over 7 years.

Auto markets, another major indicator of economic stability, have been plunging in extreme fashion. Autos saw steep declines throughout the last half of 2018, once again as higher Fed interest rates killed easy credit ARM-style car loans.

U.S. credit is also drying up as investors pull capital from volatile markets and interest rates rise. Liquidity is disappearing, which means debt is becoming more expensive, or inaccessible to most people and businesses.

A false narrative is being presented in the mainstream on these circumstances – by both the media and central bankers. There has been a considerable amount of “jawboning” by economic authorities and mainstream analysts in an attempt to keep the public distracted from the economic crisis as well as keep the investment world engaged in trading with blinders on. With the propaganda going into overdrive, we must cut through the fog and mirrors, gauging the most important threats within the system and determining when they might escalate.

Make no mistake, as erratic and unstable as 2018 was, 2019 will be far worse.

The Federal Reserve Will Continue Tightening

There is a lie circulating in the media that Jerome Powell and the Fed are “heroic” for “going against” past central bank regimes and removing easy money policies. This is the exact opposite motive behind what is happening. We have to remember that it was the Fed and other central banks that created the initial crash in 2008 through easy money policies. They then deliberately created an even bigger bubble (the “everything bubble”) through more monetary stimulus; a bubble so large that it would collapse the entire U.S. economy including bond markets and the dollar if it ever burst.

This circular process of crisis-stimulus-crisis is one that that the central bank has used for over a century. Former Fed officials like Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan have openly admitted to central bank culpability for the Great Depression as well as the crash of 2008. Though, as they do this they also assert that they were “not aware at the time” of the greater danger. I don’t buy that for a second.

In almost every instance during which the Fed created a crash environment, banking institutions were able to use the opportunity to snatch up hard assets for pennies on the dollar, as well as steal more political and social power.During the Great Depression, major banks absorbed thousands of smaller local banks as well as all the assets those banks held. In 2008, banks and corporations enjoyed a deluge of easy money paid for by American taxpayers for generations to come, while also vacuuming up hard assets like distressed home mortgages.

An even greater prize for banking elites is global centralization of economic authority, which is what I believe their goal is as the next engineered crash runs its course. As crisis leads to catastrophe, it will be institutions driven by globalism like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Bank for International Settlements (BIS) that step in to “save the day”.

As I have noted time and time again, Jerome Powell is well aware of what will happen as the Fed tightens. He is recorded in the Fed minutes of October 2012 discussing the consequences, including his hint of an impending crash if the Fed shut down stimulus measures, raised interest rates and cut the balance sheet.

Yet, Powell continues tightening all the same, indicating that Fed actions and the results are quite deliberate. Recent statements by Powell have been wrongly interpreted by the mainstream to indicate that the Fed might back off of tightening policies. I predict that this will not happen, at least not until the crash has already run its course.

I expect Powell to continue balance sheet cuts at around $50 billion per month through until perhaps the end of 2019. I also hold to my original prediction last year that the Fed will hike interest rates in 2019, at least two more times, with a hike in March.  The Fed has continued to show a propensity for double talk on “accommodation”, and there is a good reason for this…

Stock Markets Will Continue to Plunge

Many alternative economists have been pointing out over the years the direct correlation between the Fed balance sheet and stock market prices. As the Fed bought up assets, the stock market rose exactly in tandem. As the Fed dumps assets, stocks fall with increasing speed and volatility.

If you want a perfect example of this, simply examine the central bank’s FRED balance sheet totals and compare them with a year long graph of the S&P500. Do not only look at the stock plunges, but also the stock rallies.   Dramatic cuts in December facilitated the start of the crash; the recent bounce occurred in part due to end of the year investment by corporate pension funds, searching desperately for yield in an environment where bonds are no longer viable or safe.  However, take note that the first week of January also saw Fed cuts flatline.

What does this mean?  Without a massive alternative capital source like stock buybacks in play, every new large Fed asset cut will result in a steep decline around the middle of each month.  Every pause in cuts will result in a bounce, but to lower highs.  The ceiling for rallies and the expectations of investors will gradually dwindle until the reality that the party is over finally hits them.

The Fed’s recent “dovish” comments, in my view, are completely fraudulent and highly calculated. Because the central bank has cut stimulus and raised interest rates to the point that corporations can no longer afford massive buyback binges, there is nothing left to support stocks except disinformation, blind faith, and a 1-2 week pause in balance sheet cuts.

This is a controlled demolition of the economy and markets. The Fed will jawbone as much as possible to keep the system from imploding too fast, because jawboning is the only tool that is left. In the meantime, Powell will keep cutting assets and raising interest rates on schedule. This will inevitably translate into lower prices in equities as the system is “steam valved” down. Blind faith by investors will only go so far. They will be left holding the bag, right along with pensions.

I expect stocks will resume their steep decline through 2019, and will fall well below support levels seen in 2017. If December’s decline was any indication, as long as the Fed continues its current path of balance sheet cuts, I see the Dow in the 17,000 to 18,000 point range in March-April.

Trump Will Get The Blame For The Crash

Trump’s incessant propensity for taking credit for the bull rally in stocks makes him a perfect scapegoat for the ongoing crash. The acceleration in 2019 will be followed by numerous distractions. While Trump has blamed the Federal Reserve for recent stock instability, he has at the same time blamed his own trade war. Trump has attached the success of his presidency to the success of a stock market that he used to call a “big bubble” created by the Fed.

Trump’s trade war along with the government shutdown are just two factors that are already being targeted by the mainstream media and globalist commentators as the causes of the December plunge in equities.

The shutdown might not continue through January if Trump declares a state of emergency and begins the southern border wall, making the budget debate rather moot. That said, I suspect it may continue anyway; this time does feel different.  Consider that if the shutdown enters into February there is the threat that welfare programs like EBT will be delayed, which opens the door to a whole new kind of insanity.  I don’t necessarily have anything against the average person seeking welfare in times of personal crisis.  That said, there are millions of Americans who have made a career out of collecting government aid, and their attitude is often one of entitlement.  If and when their revenue and food source is cut off, their reaction may be violent.

The timing of the current shutdown makes it such a useful distraction away from central bank actions that I would be surprised if it was ended in the near term.  The threat of delays on EBT and government welfare would be a very juicy crisis that could be exploited by central banks and globalists

I predict the trade war will continue through 2019, as it has for the past year. Trump will announce “huge” progress on negotiations with China at times in order to jawbone stocks up, but days or weeks later this progress will once again come into question. I realize this is an easy prediction. The trade war farce has followed a rather predictable pattern lately.

Trump has been extraordinarily helpful to the banking elites in this regard. In fact, the Trump Administration seems to add a new escalation in the trade war a week after every major Fed balance sheet cut or rate hike; just in time for stocks to drop violently due to the Fed dump.

Other Predictions For 2019

A “Hard Brexit”: Look for the Brexit to enter a possible no-deal scenario with the EU followed by an aggressive economic downturn beyond what is already occurring in Europe.  While this outcome appears to be a longshot right now, it makes sense according to the false narrative globalists are building – the narrative that “populists” are a reckless and destructive influence that is leading to economic disaster.

Turkey Leaving NATO: This seems like a done deal already.  Turkey is positioning to couple to Eastern powers like China and Russia through various trade agreements and strategic deals, and abandoning ties to the West.  While this has the potential to drag on for a few more years, I believe it will happen quickly – by the end of 2019.

Martial Law Conditions In France: The “yellow vest” protests are going to continue through 2019, and will probably become more volatile as Emmanuel Macron attempts to tighten control.  Look for protests to grow in spring and summer as the weather warms up.  Macron has not been shy about using his totalitarian toolbox.  I expect him to declare a condition of national emergency with martial law-like powers in place as soon as the end of this year.  Whether or not this was an intended outcome by the globalists Macron so closely associates with, I do not yet know.  We have not heard much in terms of specific demands or ideological views from the Yellow Vests.  Understanding the goals and motives of both sides will determine if there is a false paradigm in play or if the Yellow Vests are a true grassroots movement.

Summary

To summarize, the crash of the “everything bubble” has been deliberately initiated by central bankers. The worst is yet to come in 2019.

Trump has made himself a sacrificial goat for the banking elites, and his administration will be taking the blame by the end of this year regardless of the facts surrounding the Federal Reserve’s program of controlled demolition.  The year of 2018 was the beginning of the next phase of engineered crisis, 2019 will see the crash hit the mainstream consciousness not to mention the doorsteps and wallets of the general public.

*  *  *

If you would like to support the publishing of articles like the one you have just read, visit our donations page here.  We greatly appreciate your patronage.

end

P G and E is reportedly planning to announce bankruptcy protection, this morning.

(courtesy zerohedge)

PG&E Reportedly Planning Bankruptcy Announcement To Workers As Soon As Monday

18 years after becoming one of America’s largest bankruptcies, the writing is on the wall for California’s utility giant after its cash-collateral-call triggering second downgrade to junk has led to reports that PG&E may notify employees as soon as Monday that it’s preparing a potential bankruptcy filing, according to people familiar with the situation.

California passed legislation last year in the aftermath of the deadly Wine Country fires requiring utilities to post public notices for employees at least 15 days before a change of control, including a bankruptcy filing.

This potential bankruptcy announcement comes after PG&E’s AIG moment hit late on Thursday, when Moody’s did precisely what S&P did two days earlier, and cut the utility’s credit rating to junk citing the electric company’s potential wildfire liabilities.

“We see a much more challenging environment for PG&E,” Moody’s analyst Jeff Cassella said in a statement. “The company is increasingly reliant on extraordinary intervention by legislators and regulators, which may not occur soon enough or be of sufficient magnitude to address these adverse developments.”

As Bloomberg reports, a notice may signal that the company has accelerated plans to make a Chapter 11 filing as way of dealing with crippling liabilities from wildfires that tore through California in 2017 and 2018, killing over 100 people and destroying hundreds of thousands of acres.

And, as we detailed previously, with two junk ratings, PG&E will now be required to use cash as collateral to guarantee power contracts, according to the company’s latest quarterly filing, which estimates the utility will have to fully collateralize as much as $800 million of positions.

That… is a problem because PG&E had only $430 million of cash on its books in September, precipitating what now appears to be an imminent liquidity crisis, one which as a result of some $30 billion in wildfire legal liabilities will quickly escalate into a solvency inferno, to use a term closely associated with California utility companies.

PG&E declined to provide a statement, saying the company doesn’t comment on rumor or speculation.

During its 2001, bankruptcy, California governor Gray Davis used the state’s treasury to bail out the utility, provoking a controversy that eventually contributed to his ouster. PG&E emerged from bankruptcy in April 2004 after returning $10.2 billion to creditors.

Newly appointed California Governor Gavin Newsom said during a press conference Thursday that his office would be making an announcement related to PG&E within the next few days and that the issue was at the top of his agenda. He said in a later interview that the announcement would involve appointments to the California Public Utilities Commission, the state’s grid operator and to a commission established by legislature to explore wildfire issues.

Newsom’s office didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday.

Citigroup Inc. called it a “a crisis of confidence.” Guggenheim Securities analysts likened the dilemma PG&E poses to investors and lawmakers as “a falling knife.”

As we pointed out previously, with relation to the last financial crisis, while Lehman was the spark, its was the bailout of AIG that really precipitated the most violent part of the 2008 crisis. While most analysts see PG&E as an isolated case, now that the biggest California utility is on the verge of bankruptcy, and is about to have its own AIG moment, one wonders just how “contained” this particular shock to the system will be.

One thing is clear, however: the shock to California residents, or rather their wallets, will be most unpleasant, as their rates are about to surge one way or another.

Think it couldn’t happen? Think again, as Bloomberg reports, PG&E’s deepening financial crisis has already spread to the companies that supply its natural gas and generate electricity for its customers. At least two small gas suppliers have restricted sales to PG&E out of concern that the company won’t be able to pay, people with direct knowledge of the situation said earlier this week.

Some banks are taking a long look at a potential $2 billion debt financing for the Geysers, the world’s largest geothermal complex, because it supplies the utility, people familiar with the matter also said this week.

end

this is going to be very costly to Californians:  P g and E shares crash by 50% as its CEO quits ahead of bankruptcy filing

(courtesy zerohedge)

PG&E Shares Crash 50%, Bonds Crater As CEO Quits Ahead Of Bankruptcy Filing

Shares of the troubled California utility PG&E tumbled more than 50% on Monday after its CEO Geisha Williams quit, followed by the revelation made in an 8-k filing on Monday morning that the utility – which is facing potentially billions of dollars in fines related to the California wildfires – is planning to file for bankruptcy on Jan. 29.

PG&E has seen its shares plunge by more than half since November after the state opened an investigation into the utility’s role in the wildfires. The utility had already participated in one of the largest bankruptcies in US history back in 2000 during California’s energy crisis. Following a collateral-call-triggering downgrade to junk last week, rumors circulated that PG&E could inform its employees about bankruptcy plans as soon as Monday.

PGE

Bond prices are plummeting further on the headlines also.

The rout in PG&E shares have established the trade as the worst ever made by Stanley Klarman’s Baupost Group.

KM

Williams, who was one of the first Hispanic CEOs in the Fortune 500, will be succeeded by the company’s general counsel on an interim basis. Her departure follows the exits of three PG&E CEOs earlier this month, according to Bloomberg.

“I will be leaving PG&E,” Williams said in a separate email, without providing a reason for her departure. “I value the opportunity I’ve had to lead PG&E and wish all of my colleagues well.”

Meanwhile, the possibility of a state takeover and/or state-organized breakup have also loomed over the company. Newly appointed California Governor Gavin Newsom said during a press conference Thursday that his office would be making an announcement related to PG&E within the next few days and that the issue was at the top of his agenda. He said in a later interview that the announcement would involve appointments to the California Public Utilities Commission, the state’s grid operator and to a commission established by legislature to explore wildfire issues.

PGE

 

Wall Street analysts are scrambling to discern the possible fallout from such a large bankruptcy filing, and its possible implications on the junk bond market, and whether a PG&E bankruptcy could create an “AIG” moment. Citigroup Inc. called it a “a crisis of confidence.” Guggenheim Securities analysts likened the dilemma PG&E poses to investors and lawmakers as “a falling knife.”

After taking the helm at PG&E, Williams pushed for changes to California laws to free utilities from responsibility if their equipment malfunctions and causes a natural disaster – something she decried as “bad public policy.” However, while lawmakers have rejected PG&E’s calls to change wildfire liability laws, they did pass a law in August to help the utility to pay for the 2017 wine country fires. California lawmakers are now weighing whether to pass another law to help PG&E limit its liability.

PG&E

Then again, PG&E’s planned bankruptcy filing could be a bluff to force California lawmakers to act. After all, if PG&E goes down, it would be shielded from bankruptcy-related lawsuits – while Californians might be faced with higher utility rates.

end

Gundlach explains the real deficit of the uSA at 1.3 trillion.  He also is sounding the alarm bell over the huge $122 trillion in unfunded liabilities.  I think he is low on this front..others have pegged the unfunded liabilities in the uSA at over 225 trillion dollars

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Swimming In An Ocean Of Debt”: Gundlach Sounds The Alarm Over $122 Trillion In Unfunded Liabilities

After laying out the reasoning behind his considerably more pessimistic view on the US economy during his widely watched “Just Markets” podcast, DoubleLine Capital Founder Jeffrey Gundlach – whose flagship Total Return Fund outperformed the benchmark again in 2018 – delved into some of the same themes from his year-ahead podcast this week during a round table discussion hosted by Barron’s, during which the legendary bond trader warned that record levels of corporate debt – particularly in the lower-rungs of the investment-grade universe, which has swollen as companies binged on debt to buy back stock during the ZIRP years, could create problems for the equity  market.

But an even bigger long-term threat to markets is emanating from the supposedly “safe” market for US Treasury debt.

Gundlach

As we’ve warned and Gundlach has also highlighted, the risks posed by companies that could soon become “fallen angels” is rising as the US economy is “swimming in an ocean of debt.” But though the risks posed by corporate debt are serious, during the round table Gundlach was more focused on the risks posed by the ever-expanding US debt – which he argued is even bigger than most Americans realize.

 

Leverage

While the US government reported a budget deficit of $800 billion during the fiscal year ended on Sept. 30, the national debt increased by some $1.3 trillion dollars. The difference, as Gundlach explained, represents the cost of national disaster relief and other expenditures that are considered one-offs.

“Fiscal year for the federal government ends Sept. 30 and the official reported deficit was $800 billion dollars. The national debt increased by $1.3 trillion dollars. The differences can be things like national disaster relief and other things that are considered one off. Also there’s the lending from the social security system so that’s real debt too.”

The upshot, is the “debt has been going up a lot more than people think.” And what’s worse, is that, according to Gundlach’s calculations, the total unfunded liabilities for welfare programs like social security amount to some $122 trillion – roughly six times annual GDP. The answer put forward by most politicians is that this is a long term problem, and that the day of reckoning can perpetually be delayed by more borrowing. But there’s one problem with that. Every year, the share of the US federal budget consumed by debt service is rising.

“If you put enough short terms together, you get a long term. The CDO, they project that by 2025, the interest expense could be 5% of GDP. The near-term is turning into the long term in the next few years unfortunately.”

Meanwhile, Gundlach reiterated his view that equities have entered a bear market, saying he expects stocks to continue to weaken before a rebound begins during the second half of the year.

“So now we are in a bear market, which isn’t defined by me as stocks being down 20 percent. A bear market is determined by the way stocks are acting,” he said.

Gundlach also warned that, for all Trump’s gloating about a strong economy, most of this growth has been artificial and fueled by unsustainable debt.

“I’m not looking for a terrible economy, but an artificially strong one, due to stimulus spending,” Gundlach told the panel. “We have floated incremental debt when we should be doing the opposite if the economy is so strong.”

In other words, Gundlach expects fiscal policies to overtake monetary policy as the primary locus of concern for investors.

end

this should hurt the USA first quarter GDP: a massive winter buries the eastrn section of the uSA

(courtesy zerohedge)

A Massive Winter Storm Buries Parts Of The US, Kills Seven 

After what was a quiet but abnormally warm start to 2019, a severe winter storm has left seven people dead as it charged across the Midwestern US, striking the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.

By late Saturday night, the storm had shifted over the Virginia, Washington, D.C., and Baltimore region, where 4 to 7 inches of snow is on the ground.

Weather models suggest the snow could get heavier around 2:30 p.m. for a few hours, especially in the Washington metropolitan area.

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) warned that freezing rain would also be a big concern for the region into the overnight.

A winter storm will shift east off the Carolina coast through today. Heavy snow will continue over portions of the Mid-Atlantic while freezing rain is expected for the western Carolinas into southern Virginia. The snow and ice will contribute to slick travel into tonight. pic.twitter.com/7DPWMuaa5x

— NWS (@NWS) January 13, 2019

Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam declared a state of emergency on Saturday in anticipation of the storm.

“I am declaring a state of emergency in order to prepare and coordinate the Commonwealth’s response to anticipated winter storm impacts, including snow and ice accumulations, transportation issues, and power outages,” said Northam.

The state of emergency allows officials to “mobilize resources and to deploy people and equipment to assist in response and recovery efforts,” according to the press release.

St. Louis, which was pounded the hardest by the storm so far, recorded almost 11 inches, forcing closures of Interstates 44, 64 and 70 around the city.

Parts of central Missouri, around Harrisburg, recorded almost 20 inches of snow.

Columbia, Missouri, saw more than one foot of snow, more than doubling a 109-year-old record for snowfall.

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for much of the Baltimore–Washington metropolitan area through 6 p.m. Sunday.

Vallee Weather Consulting meteorologist Ed Valle suggests that a “classic El Nino pattern” is developing, which combined with cold air, could mean additional storms for the East Coast into Feburary.

Valle made the point that natgas could be the greatest beneficiary of a significant cold pattern change coming to the East Coast in the second half of January into Feburary.

“The warm pattern much of the United States has been enduring to end December and start January is gradually changing now, and will continue to progress colder toward the end of January. We are seeing the beginnings of this change as a winter storm pushes through the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic this weekend. This system has delivered locally up to 20 inches of snow in the St. Louis, MO metro area, and has already delivered up to 8 inches of snow in the DC metro area. As we push through the rest of January, a more classic “El Nino” pattern looks to develop, including a strong southern jet stream, which, combined with some cold, can likely bring additional winter storms to the Ohio Valley and East Coast into early February.

Another area impacted by this shift colder will be natural gas – after a strong start to the demand season, a bearish pattern with plenty of warmth has stifled early season cold, pushing natgas lower over the last 4-6 weeks. However, with this cold coming to end the month, we expect heating demand to continue to rise as populated areas of the southern Plains, Midwest, and East shift colder and stormier.”

Heating degree day (HDD), a measurement designed to quantify the demand for energy needed to heat a building, is already signaling that natgas demand is likely to increase in the lower 48 over the coming week.

After a near -41% collapse in natgas from November’s 4.92 high, the current shift in cold and snowy weather is expected to blanket the East Coast in the coming weeks, could be a relieving sign for energy bulls.

Valle warns that another snowmaker for the East Coast is dead ahead.

East Coast Snow Lovers Rejoice! A very favorable pattern for snow and cold could potentially arrive next weekend and beyond…❄❄❄️ pic.twitter.com/AhEtmJzd19

— Ed Vallee | Vallee Wx Consulting (@EdValleeWx) January 12, 2019

Bigly winter storm signal next weekend on almost all data at this point. Suggest monitoring this system along and coast and interior – all areas in play right now. pic.twitter.com/ksF6RRjaO8

— Ed Vallee | Vallee Wx Consulting (@EdValleeWx) January 13, 2019

Ignore the specific numbers, but my goodness ensembles are suggesting quite the active period coming up. All 51 EPS members are shown below through 1/28… pic.twitter.com/rovzGOSKy1

— Ed Vallee | Vallee Wx Consulting (@EdValleeWx) January 13, 2019

END
In prepared remarks William Barr wants Mueller to finish his Russian probe and then have the public see that report
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump’s AG Nominee: ‘Vitally Important’ Mueller Finish Probe, Public Sees Report

William Barr, President Trump’s pick for attorney general, will tell senators at his confirmation hearing that it is “vitally important” that special counsel Robert Mueller is allowed to finish his investigation, according to prepared remarks obtained by the Associated Press on Monday.

“I believe it is in the best interest of everyone — the President, Congress, and, most importantly, the American people – that this matter be resolved by allowing the Special Counsel to complete his work,” Barr is set to tell lawmakers.

Barr also says that it’s “very important” that Congress and the public be informed of the special counsel’s findings into potential coordination between the 2016 Trump presidential campaign and Russia.

“For that reason, my goal will be to provide as much transparency as I can consistent with the law,” Barr will say. “I can assure you that, where judgments are to be made by me, I will make those judgments based solely on the law and will let no personal, political, or other improper interests influence my decisions.”

The remarks are an acknowledgment that Barr’s handling of Mueller’s investigation will take center stage at Tuesday’s hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee. They’re intended to reassure Democratic senators troubled by Barr’s past comments on the special counsel’s probe, including an unsolicited memo he sent the Justice Department last year criticizing the inquiry into whether the president had obstructed justice.

He also previously said the president’s firing of FBI director James Comey was appropriate and that the Mueller team, criticized by Trump for including prosecutors who have contributed to Democrats, should have had more “balance.” –Bloomberg

Barr’s previous comments criticizing the Mueller probe raised alarms among Democrats that he might stifle or end the seemingly-endless investigation. Some have questioned whether Barr would approve a subpoena for Trump if he refuses to answer additional questions, and whether Congress should see whatever conclusion Mueller’s team reaches.

During private meetings last week, Barr told lawmakers that Trump had “sought no assurances, promises, or commitments from me of any kind, either express or implied.”

“As Attorney General, my allegiance will be to the rule of law, the Constitution, and the American people,” Barr’s statement reads. “That is how it should be. That is how it must be. And, if you confirm me, that is how it will be.”

Barr’s supervisory role may be especially important since Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who appointed Mueller in May 2017 and has overseen his day-to-day work, expects to leave the Justice Department soon after Barr is confirmed. It is not clear how much of the investigation will be left by that point.

Barr would replace acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker, who declined to recuse himself from the investigation over past critical comments on it — despite calls from Democrats and the advice of a Justice Department ethics official. –Bloomberg

Barr’s memo in June, sent to Rosenstein and the head of the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel, criticized the “fatally misconceived” theory of obstruction that Mueller appeared to be pursuing. Barr noted that presidents cannot be criminally investigated for actions they are allowed to take under the Constitution, such as firing an official who works for them – just because of a subjective determination that they may have had a corrupt state of mind.

DOJ spokeswoman Kerri Kupec noted that Barr wrote the memo on his own accord, only relying on publicly available information – and that senior ethics officials have given it a green light in terms of conflict of interest relating to Barr’s work as attorney general.

Barr will say in his memo that it was narrowly focused on a single theory of obstruction in media reports, and that “The memo did not address – or in any way question – the Special Counsel’s core investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election.”

SWAMP STORIES

Not really a surprise here:  Trump goes on a tweetstorm after the New York Times reveals that the FBI went on an escalated witch hunt on Trump with respect to Russian collusion immediately after Comey was fired.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Goes On Epic Tweetstorm After NYT Reveals FBI “Witch Hunt” Escalation Following Comey Firing

President Trump on Saturday lashed out after a Friday evening report in the New York Times that US law enforcement officials “became so concerned by the president’s behavior” in the days after Trump fired James Comey as FBI director, that “they began investigating whether he had been working on behalf of Russia against American interests.

According to the NYT, agents and senior F.B.I. officials “had grown suspicious of Mr. Trump’s ties to Russia during the 2016 campaign” but held off on opening an investigation into him, the people said, in part because they were uncertain how to proceed with an inquiry of such sensitivity and magnitude.

What happened next? Well, a collusion narrative was born and carefully crafted as the paper explains:

The president’s activities before and after Mr. Comey’s firing in May 2017, particularly two instances in which Mr. Trump tied the Comey dismissal to the Russia investigation, helped prompt the counterintelligence aspect of the inquiry, the people said.

The odd inquiry carried “explosive implications” as counterintelligence investigators had to consider whether the president’s own actions constituted a possible threat to national security. Agents also sought to determine whether Mr. Trump was knowingly working for Russia or had unwittingly fallen under Moscow’s influence.

The criminal and counterintelligence elements were coupled together into one investigation, former law enforcement officials said in interviews in recent weeks, because if Mr. Trump had ousted the head of the F.B.I. to impede or even end the Russia investigation, that was both a possible crime and a national security concern. The F.B.I.’s counterintelligence division handles national security matters.

Even so, “…some former law enforcement officials outside the investigation have questioned whether agents overstepped in opening it.”

Then, in paragraph nine we read “No evidence has emerged publicly that Mr. Trump was secretly in contact with or took direction from Russian government officials.

Or, as The Washington Examiner‘s Byron York sums it up:

Byron York

@ByronYork

James Comey bungled Hillary Clinton investigation. Then started sketchy Trump probe. Then did a dossier-based, Moscow hookers, J. Edgar Hoover-style ‘we know about you’ routine with Trump before Trump became president… 1/4

Byron York

@ByronYork

Then Comey told Trump three times he wasn’t under investigation while leaving public impression that he was. Trump understandably angry. Then, when Trump fired Comey–as some advisors had advocated for months–FBI saw it as treason. 2/4

Byron York

@ByronYork

Now, NYT reports FBI reacted to justified firing of Comey by opening counterintelligence investigation, probing ‘whether [Trump] had been working on behalf of Russia against American interests.’ 3/4

Byron York

@ByronYork

Investigation result: ‘No evidence has emerged publicly that Mr. Trump was secretly in contact with or took direction from Russian government officials.’ Is NYT story about Trump, or about FBI malfeasance? 4/4 End. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/11/us/politics/fbi-trump-russia-inquiry.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage 

Some were even more laconic, summarizing the “scoop” as “anybody who fires corrupt Comey must be a Russian spy.”

GreekFire23@GreekFire23

LOL!! Anybody who fires corrupt Comey must be a Russian spy. #SCOOP https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1083896490370703360?s=21 

Nicholas Fandos

@npfandos

SCOOP: F.B.I. Opened Inquiry Into Whether Trump Was Secretly Working on Behalf of Russia scrip w/⁦@adamgoldmanNYT⁩ ⁦@nytmikehttps://nyti.ms/2RH4nD4?smid=nytcore-ios-share 

Responding to the “bombshell” NYT report – which curiously resurrects the “Russian collusion” narrative right as Trump is set to test his Presidential authority over the border wall, the president lashed out over Twitter.

Wow, just learned in the Failing New York Times that the corrupt former leaders of the FBI, almost all fired or forced to leave the agency for some very bad reasons, opened up an investigation on me, for no reason & with no proof, after I fired Lyin’ James Comey, a total sleaze!”

Funny thing about James Comey. Everybody wanted him fired, Republican and Democrat alike. After the rigged & botched Crooked Hillary investigation, where she was interviewed on July 4th Weekend, not recorded or sworn in, and where she said she didn’t know anything (a lie), the FBI was in complete turmoil (see N.Y. Post) because of Comey’s poor leadership and the way he handled the Clinton mess (not to mention his usurpation of powers from the Justice Department). My firing of James Comey was a great day for America. He was a Crooked Cop who is being totally protected by his best friend, Bob Mueller, & the 13 Angry Democrats – leaking machines who have NO interest in going after the Real Collusion (and much more) by Crooked Hillary Clinton, her Campaign, and the Democratic National Committee. Just Watch!

I have been FAR tougher on Russia than Obama, Bush or Clinton. Maybe tougher than any other President. At the same time, & as I have often said, getting along with Russia is a good thing, not a bad thing. I fully expect that someday we will have good relations with Russia again!

Lyin’ James Comey, Andrew McCabe, Peter S and his lover, agent Lisa Page, & more, all disgraced and/or fired and caught in the act. These are just some of the losers that tried to do a number on your President. Part of the Witch Hunt. Remember the “insurance policy?” This is it! -Donald Trump

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Wow, just learned in the Failing New York Times that the corrupt former leaders of the FBI, almost all fired or forced to leave the agency for some very bad reasons, opened up an investigation on me, for no reason & with no proof, after I fired Lyin’ James Comey, a total sleaze!

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

…Funny thing about James Comey. Everybody wanted him fired, Republican and Democrat alike. After the rigged & botched Crooked Hillary investigation, where she was interviewed on July 4th Weekend, not recorded or sworn in, and where she said she didn’t know anything (a lie),….

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….the FBI was in complete turmoil (see N.Y. Post) because of Comey’s poor leadership and the way he handled the Clinton mess (not to mention his usurpation of powers from the Justice Department). My firing of James Comey was a great day for America. He was a Crooked Cop……

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

…..who is being totally protected by his best friend, Bob Mueller, & the 13 Angry Democrats – leaking machines who have NO interest in going after the Real Collusion (and much more) by Crooked Hillary Clinton, her Campaign, and the Democratic National Committee. Just Watch!

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I have been FAR tougher on Russia than Obama, Bush or Clinton. Maybe tougher than any other President. At the same time, & as I have often said, getting along with Russia is a good thing, not a bad thing. I fully expect that someday we will have good relations with Russia again!

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Lyin’ James Comey, Andrew McCabe, Peter S and his lover, agent Lisa Page, & more, all disgraced and/or fired and caught in the act. These are just some of the losers that tried to do a number on your President. Part of the Witch Hunt. Remember the “insurance policy?” This is it!

While there is nothing new here confirming Trump was colluding with Russia, as Byron York asks following the article, was the New York Times story about Trump, or about FBI malfeasance?

END
The FBI ramped up the “witch hunt’ knowing full well that the Russian collusion investigation was a total joke
(courtesy zerohedge)

As FBI Ramped Up “Witch Hunt” When Trump Fired Comey, Strzok Admitted Collusion Investigation A Joke

A Friday report in the New York Times revealing that the FBI supercharged its Trump-Russia collusion investigation after President Trump fired FBI director James Comey appears to have backfired – especially when one reviews internal FBI communications from the time period in question.

The Daily Caller‘s Chuck Ross has made a brilliant observation, noting Peter Strzok – then the FBI’s deputy chief of counterintelligence, admitted to his FBI lawyer mistress, Lisa Page, that there was no merit to the investigation.

Nine days after Comey was fired and the DOJ “sought to determine whether Mr. Trump was knowingly working for Russia,” Strzok texted Page on May 18, 2017: “You and I both know the odds are nothing. If I thought it was likely I’d be there no question. I hesitate in part because of my gut sense and concern there’s no big there there.

It is unclear from The Times report what information was used as a predicate to open the investigation. The article suggests that the FBI had long considered the move and that Comey’s firing and Trump’s subsequent comments marked a tipping point.

A source close to Strzok told The Daily Caller News Foundation on Jan. 26, 2018, shortly after the text was released, that the message reflected Strzok’s concern that the FBI would not find evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia. –Daily Caller

The Times’ explanation for the FBI’s rationale that Trump may have been a Russian asset consists of Trump’s call for Moscow to release Hillary Clinton’s emails an election debate, and allegations contained within the unverified Steele Dossier. The Times was also quick to note that Trump may have “unwittingly fallen under Moscow’s influence,” to temper the accusation that he was an agent of a foreign power. In short, weak sauce.

It’s no wonder Strzok was hesitant to join Mueller’s team.

Interestingly, another series of Strzok-Page texts refers to “coordinating investigation” after Strzok apparently met with Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who both recommended Comey’s firing, then authorized the special counsel probe.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Chuck Ross@ChuckRossDC

Some interesting Strzok-Page texts from after Comey was fired. Strzok seems to have met 1-on-1 w/ Rosenstein. They discussed “coordinating investigation.” https://dailycaller.com/2018/04/27/read-the-strozk-page-texts-in-full/ 

As Ross notes in The Daily Caller, there were other text messages that between Strzok and Page which raise suspicion over whether the FBI was working on a “gotcha” against Trump.

And we need to open the case we’ve been waiting on now while Andy is acting,” Strzok texted Page the day Comey was fired, referring to then-deputy FBI director Andrew McCabe.

Meanwhile, Page – who served as McCabe’s deputy, provided some additional color on the text messages during her July 2018 congressional testimony, suggesting that the “case we’ve been waiting on” text referred to an investigation separate of the obstruction probe we already knew about. 

“Well, other than obstruction, what could it have been?” one lawmaker asked Page in her interview, details of which were published by The Epoch Times on Friday.

I can’t answer that, sir. I’m sorry,” she replied.

“If I was able to explain in more depth why the Director firing precipitated this text, I would,” she continued while declining to say if the text message referred to an obstruction of justice investigation or something more. –Daily Caller

That said, Page admitted that Comey’s firing prompted the text exchange.

“So the firing of Jim Comey was the precipitating event as opposed to the occupant of the Director’s office?” asked one lawmaker.

“Yes, that’s correct,” replied Page.

Meanwhile, The Times went to great lengths to imply that the FBI was justified in their ratcheted-up collusion investigation – failing to mention who started the probe, who led it, and more importantly – waiting until the 9th paragraph to mention the fact that it turned up nothing.

“No evidence has emerged publicly that Mr. Trump was secretly in contact with or took direction from Russian government officials. An F.B.I. spokeswoman and a spokesman for the special counsel’s office both declined to comment.”

Bill Gertz

@BillGertz

No mention in story who launched probe: McCabe—fired and under grand jury investigation, nor mention of counterintelligence official leading it: Peter Strzok—corrupt and politically motivated agent who advocated using FBI to unseat Trump.. Huge omissions.

The New York Times

@nytimes

President Trump’s actions so alarmed the FBI after James Comey’s firing that it began investigating if he was working on behalf of Russia https://nyti.ms/2FxVW6J

END

END

 

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

Exasperated Democrats try to rein in Ocasio-Cortez [AOC] (The MSM created a monster.)

Incumbent Democrats are most annoyed by Ocasio-Cortez’s threat to back primary opponents against members of their ranks she deems too moderate

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/11/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-democrats-establisment-1093728

@ByronYork: Former Sen. Joe Lieberman, 76, says he hopes AOC does not represent future of Democratic Party. AOC, who is 29, responds: ‘New party, who dis?’    http://ow.ly/jGgf30nhlYN

Democrats are battling to see who is the most radically left

https://nypost.com/2019/01/12/democrats-are-battling-to-see-who-is-the-most-radically-left/

New York Dem shutting down terrorism committee to create Trump investigation panel

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-foreign-affairs-committee-chairman-engel-seeks-to-replace-terrorism-panel-with-one-to-probe-trum

@julie_kelly2: The full testimony by James Baker [FBI chief atty.] is explosive. The NYT of course had to spin it first before the transcript is released to the public. Catherine Herridge confirms here today:

 

Republican uncovered secret FBI debate over Trump motivation for Comey firing during House questioning – “(I)n May 2017,  political bias infected senior FBI leadership, and emotion — not evidence — drove their decision making… FBI senior leadership could not accept Comey was fired for cause and the president had the constitutional authority to terminate Comey.“…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republican-uncovered-secret-fbi-probe-of-trump-after-comey-firing-during-house-questioning

 

F.B.I. Opened Inquiry into Whether Trump Was Secretly Working on Behalf of Russia [As an excuse to investigate Trump for firing Comey] No evidence has emerged publicly that Mr. Trump was secretly in contact with or took direction from Russian government officials…  https://twitter.com/nytmike/status/1083896234627219456

 

Cong. Nunes: “… FBI leaders actually had no real evidence against the Trump team… they were simply trying to undermine a president they didn’t like and avenge Comey’s firing…

 

Imagine the outrage if some FBI officials investigated Obama for colluding with Iran or after Obama told the Russian President Medvedev to ‘tell Vlad that after the election I can be more flexible?’

 

Caught on open mike, Obama tells Medvedev he needs ‘space’ on missile defense

“This is my last election,” Obama interjects. “After my election, I have more flexibility.”…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-tells-medvedev-solution-on-missile-defense-is-unlikely-before-elections/2012/03/26/gIQASoblbS_story.html

 

Trump rages about FBI’s reported probe into Comey firing

“Wow, just learned in the Failing New York Times that the corrupt former leaders of the FBI, almost all fired or forced to leave the agency for some very bad reasons, opened up an investigation on me, for no reason & with no proof, after I fired Lyin’ James Comey, a total sleaze!” the president tweeted…

    “He was a Crooked Cop… who is being totally protected by his best friend, Bob Mueller, & the 13 Angry Democrats – leaking machines who have NO interest in going after the Real Collusion (and much more) by Crooked Hillary Clinton, her Campaign, and the Democratic National Committee. Just Watch!”…   https://nypost.com/2019/01/12/trump-rages-about-fbis-reported-probe-into-comeys-firing/

 

EXCLUSIVE: Transcripts of Lisa Page’s Closed-Door Testimonies Provide New Revelations in Spygate Scandal – All roads lead back to Brennan… the DOJ was far more cautious in their approach to matters and was ultimately responsible for the decision not to prosecute in the Clinton Case…

https://www.theepochtimes.com/transcripts-of-lisa-pages-closed-door-testimonies-provide-new-revelations_2763452.html

 

Dems fly to Puerto Rico on chartered jet, meet with lobbyists, see ‘Hamilton’ as shutdown drags on

About 30 Democratic members of Congress traveled to Puerto Rico this weekend — with their families and lobbyists — for a winter retreat… [Horrendous optics!  Belief that the MSM will protect them?]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/democrats-fly-to-puerto-rico-amid-ongoing-government-shutdown.amp

 

WH spokeswomen Sanders @PressSec: Democrats in Congress are so alarmed about federal workers not getting paid they’re partying on the beach instead of negotiating a compromise to reopen the government and secure the border

 

@realDonaldTrump: I’m in the White House, waiting. The Democrats are everywhere but Washington as people await their pay. They are having fun and not even talking!

 

The Democrat Wall of Insanity Is Cracking: Top Democrats Announce Border Barrier Support!

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/01/the-democrat-wall-of-insanity-is-cracking-top-democrats-announce-border-barrier-support-video/

 

GOP Cong. @Jim_Jordan: Freshman Democrat @RepKatieHill [D-CA] on CNN this morning: “I will vote for some money for physical barriers.”  Americans want the Wall. Democrats are starting to realize that. It’s time to secure the border and #DoWhatWeSaid

Attachments area

I WILL SEE YOU ON TUESDAY
H
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