Jan 15/GOLD AND SILVER HELD IN CHECK BY THE CABAL/GOLD DOWN $1.45 TO $1288.50/SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TO $15.60/THERESA MAY LOSES BIG TIME IN HER BREXIT PROPOSAL IN BRITISH PARLIAMENT/STRONG EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL GROWTH SLOWING E.G. GOODYEAR/THE BIGGEST HAWK AT THE FED, ESTHER GEORGE THROWS IN THE TOWEL AND STATES THAT THEY SHOULD WAIT UNTIL RAISING RATES/

 

 

 

GOLD: $1288.50 DOWN $1.45 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $15.60 DOWN 4 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1289.40

 

silver: $15.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

JANUARY

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN CONTRACT: 5 NOTICE(S) FOR 500 OZ (0.0155 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  538 NOTICES FOR 53800 OZ  (1.6734 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JANUARY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

22 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  110,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 637 for 3,185,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3612: DOWN 13

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3534 DOWN   $90 

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today 4/5

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 01/14/2019 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 01/14/2019
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:14:08
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,289.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/14/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 01/16/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 C JP MORGAN 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 5 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 5 5
MONTH TO DATE: 538

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN GOOD SIZED  1433 CONTRACTS FROM 189,936 UP TO 191,369 WITH YESTERDAY’S  1 CENT RISE  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 22 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A TINY SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

31 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 31 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 31 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 31 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 0.155 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 1 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND

 21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

AND NOW: INITIALLY 5.565 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JANUARY: 26,157 CONTRACTS (FOR 10 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 26,157 CONTRACTS) OR 130.785 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2616 CONTRACTS OR 13.080 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JAN:  130.78 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 18.65% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           130.78    MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1466 WITH THE TINY 1 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 31 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED: 1487 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 31 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1466 OI COMEX CONTRACTSAND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 1 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.64 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .896 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 128% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JANUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 22 NOTICE(S) FOR 110,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ  AND NOW JANUARY AT  5.565 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 15,044 CONTRACTS UP TO 494,828 WITH THE SMALL GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A RISE IN PRICE OF $1.65//YESTERDAY’S TRADING)

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG  SIZED 6045 CONTRACTS:

 

FEBRUARY HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 6045 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 494,828. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGELY ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 21,089 CONTRACTS: 15,044 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 6045 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN:  21,089 CONTRACTS OR 2,108,900 OZ = 65.59 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS HUMONGOUS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF A TINY  $1.65??????????

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5979 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY : 79,429 CONTRACTS OR 7,942,900 OZ  OR 247.05 TONNES (10 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7943 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 247.05 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 247.05/2550 x 100% TONNES = 9.68% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     247.05  TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 15,044 WITH THE TINY GAIN IN PRICING ($1.65) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A VERY HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6045 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6045 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN UNBELIEVABLE GAIN OF 21,089 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6045 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 15,089 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 65.59 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE TINY GAIN OF $1.65 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX??????????

 

 

we had: notice(s) filed upon for 500 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $1.45 TODAY 

 

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   797.71 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 797.71 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS  TODAY:

 

 

A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/

A WITHDRAWAL OF 469,000 OZ FROM ITS INVENTORY

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.163 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 1433 CONTRACTS from 189,936 UP TO 191,309  AND MOVING CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

31 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 31 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1433 CONTRACTS TO THE 31 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A CONSIDERABLE GAIN  OF 1464  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7.32 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER AND 5.655 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY..

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 1 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A TINY SIZED 31 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 34.58 PTS OR 1.56% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 531.96 POINTS OR 2.02% /The Nikkei closed UP 195.59  PTS OR .96%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.66%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7614 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 51.10 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.91 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED /RED 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.7614 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7695: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/CHINA

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

 

 

i)CHINA/USA

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)ITALY/EUROPE/

According to Italy’s PMi Salvini, Europe could collapse over the migration issue.

( zerohedge)

ii)Italy now wants to build an anti EU axis on the populist program.  They are teaming up with Hungary on this issue. The central them is that they are anti immigrate

( Kern/Gatestone)

iii)France

Riots continue in France where the police are now using semi automatic weapons trying to quell the yellow vests. Macron is losing grip on his country.

(courtesy zerohedge)

iv)UK/the historical vote:

 

huge defeat for May
(courtesy zerohedge)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

IRAN

Iran launches a satellite and it fails to reach its third stage and thus did not go into orbit. A lot of money down the drain for this bankrupt nation

( zerohedge)

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

i)The following is a good bellwether for global growth:  Goodyear tire slashes guidance and blames China and Europe

( zerohedge)

ii)the global slowdown is much more advanced that originally thought.

( Michael Snyder)

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

i)SOUTH AFRICA
My goodness:  Racism in the opposite direction…South Africa creates 100 positions for black only doctors.  It failed to fill the posting
( zerohedge)

ii)INDIAThis will hurt India’s GDP:  India just staged the largest strike in its history as 200 million workers took to the street; This lasted for two days.

( zerohedge)

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)I do not think that Venezuela has much gold to refine…

Turkey which does not refine much gold is offering to refine this Venezuelan gold. Turkey is now turning their faces away from uSA interests

( Ahval/GATA)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

After being up in the early morning, Chuck Grassley admitted that there was little progress in the latest Chinese trade talks.  I have been telling you that there will be no deal struck between China and the uSA

( zero hedge)

ii)Market data/

a)This is a major surprise:  our crooked friends over at JPMorgan miss on the earnings and revenue .  It seems that the entire globe is having trouble

( zerohedge)

b)Wells Fargo the leader in the USA mortgage field, just reported its worst number since the financial crisis began in 2008.  Another indicator that the USA economy is faltering.

( zerohedge)

c)Another good indicator that the economy is coming to a screeching halt:  USA producer prices disappoint again, dropping .2% month/month

( zerohedge

d)Soft data, NY Manufacturing index slumps again in January
(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a) Los Angeles sees it’s first teacher strike in 30 years as 30,000 teachers were not in their classrooms and instead were picketing,  It will impact 480,000 students.

( zerohedge

b)this is very worrisome:  the magma under Yellowstone supervolcano is rising and an eruption of this size would devastate the planet;

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

c)Quite an op ed. Usually they do not allow anonymous op eds   However this one is from a senior Trump official and he hopes for a long shutdown to smoke out the resistance.

( zerohedge)

d)this is huge!! The biggest hawk of the them all: Esther George, just threw in the towel and states that it is a good time to pause hikes in rates. It indicates that all Fed govs and presidents now believe that the economy is sinking.  I still think that Powell will blow up the system and continue to raise rates.( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

Today, we have the hearings for the new AG. Barr states that there is no “witch hunt” against Trump but he is shocked by the texts of FBI agents. I think this is grandstanding..he will make his move once he is confirmed.

( zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN  ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 15,044 CONTRACTS UP TO A LEVEL OF 494,828 DESPITE THE TINY GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($1.65) IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6045 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR FEBRUARY:  6045 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6045 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  21,089 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6045 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 15,044 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 21,089 contracts OR 2,108,900  OZ OR 65.59 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of JANUARY and here the open interest stands at 56 contracts as we LOST 3 contracts. We had 8 notices filed on yesterday so we gained 5 contracts or 500 ADDITIONAL oz will stand for delivery as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negate a fiat bonus.

 

 

The next active delivery month is February and here the OI lost by 7983 contracts DOWN to 244,323 contracts.  After February, March GAINED 135 contracts to stand at 722.  After March, the next big delivery month is April and here the OI rose by 21,054 contracts up to 158,071 contracts.

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE  January 2018 contract month

 

 

ON JANUARY 1/2018: 1.297 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY  (Jan 1 2019 initial standing 1.306 tonnes)

EVENTUALLY ON JAN 31.2018: 2.17 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY AS QUEUE JUMPING STARTED IN EARNEST AT THE GOLD COMEX

 

 

WE HAD 5 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 500 OZ. (0..0155 tonnes)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED  1433  CONTRACTS FROM 189,936 UP TO 192,309(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED DESPITE A TINY 1 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY AND THE  AMOUNT OF OPEN INTEREST READY TO STAND IS 498 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 7 CONTRACTS FROM YESTERDAY.  WE HAD 29 NOTICES FILED ON YESTERDAY, SO WE GAINED 22 CONTRACTS OR  110,000 ADDITIONAL OZ OF SILVER WILL  STAND FOR SILVER AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO  MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. QUEUE JUMPING IS THE NORM AT THE SILVER COMEX AS THE DEALERS SCRAMBLE FOR WHATEVER PHYSICAL THEY CAN OBTAIN.

 

 

 

THE NEXT NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS FEBRUARY AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 5 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 457. AFTER FEBRUARY IS THE VERY BIG AND ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 331 CONTRACTS UP TO 143,323 CONTRACTS.

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 1464 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  1433 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 31 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1464 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 1 CENT RISE IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH AND JANUARY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE JAN 1/2018 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD A GOOD 2.695 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY’

AT THE CONCLUSION OF JAN/2018 WE HAD 3.650 MILLION OZ STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NORM FOR SILVER

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 22 notice(s) filed for 110,000 OZ for the FEB, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  253,616 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  282,877  contracts

volumes at the comex for both gold and silver are much less than usual.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JAN/GOLD

JAN 15/2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
9804.286 oz
delaware
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

NIL

 

OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
5 notice(s)
 500 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
51 contracts
(5100 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
538 notices
53800 OZ
1.6734 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

 

total gold customer deposits;  NIL oz

 

we had 2 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Delaware;:  1217.18 oz

 

ii) Out of HSBC: 8587.106 oz

 

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  9804.286 oz

 

we had 0  adjustments….

FOR THE DEC 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 5 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 4 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JANUARY/2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (538) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (56 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (5 x 100 oz per contract) equals 58,900 OZ OR 1.832 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON  active month of JANUARY

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (538 x 100 oz)  + {56)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (5 x 100 oz )which equals 58,900 oz standing OR 1.832 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of JANUARY.

Today we gained 5 contracts or an additional 500 oz will stand in this non active month of January

.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 23.105 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 1.832 TONNES STANDING FOR JANUARY

LAST MONTH WE HAVE 23.37 TONNES OF GOLD SUPPOSEDLY DELIVERED UPON BUT THIS AMOUNT OF GOLD DID NOT LEAVE THE REGISTERED GOLD CATEGORY AT THE COMEX.

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  742,826.824 oz or   23.105 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,421,624.013 oz 261.94 tonnes

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 92 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

JAN INITIAL standings/SILVER

JAN 15, 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
34,685.781oz
CNT
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
636,063.490 oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
22
CONTRACT(S)
110,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
476 contracts
2,380,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 637 contracts

(3,185,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) into Brinks; 636,063.490 oz

total dealer deposits:  636,063.490 oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 147.7 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.51% of all official comex silver. (147.7 million/293 million)

ii) into everybody else:  0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: nil   oz

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i) Out of CNT: 33,797.481 oz
ii)Out of Delaware:  978.300 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals:  34,685.781   oz

 

we had 2 adjustments

i) Out of Brinks:  112,564.64 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Brinks

ii) Out of HSBC 8587.106 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of HSBC

and both of these will be settlements.

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  84.818 million

total dealer + customer silver:  292.554 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JANUARY 2018. contract month is represented by 22 contract(s) FOR 110,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JAN., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 637 x 5,000 oz = 3,185,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (498) and the number of notices served upon today (22x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JANUARY/2018 contract month: 637(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN( 498) -number of notices served upon today (22)x 5000 oz equals 5,565,000 oz of silver standing for the JANUARY contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month. We gained 22 contracts or an additional 110,000 oz will  stand for delivery and these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  59,853 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 53,572 CONTRACTS… 

volumes at the comex now increasing for silver

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 53,572 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 267 million OZ  38.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -3.66% (JAN 15/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.39% to NAV (JAN 15 /2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.66%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.12/TRADING 12.66/DISCOUNT 3.51

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JAN 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH SILVER UP $6.00/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: a) A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .25 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES ETC b) A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY./INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY, A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN THE RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.78 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.25 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.65 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 3/2019/WITH GOLD UP $10.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 2.2019/WITH GOLD UP $3.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.20 STRANGELY A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $8.65: A MASSIVE 15.88 TONNES WAS ADDED INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 790.02 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $0.15: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.14 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $15.15: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.00 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.14 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.15 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.14 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $11.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $3.15 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 8.23 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC  17 WITH GOLD UP $10.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/SOMETHING IS BURNING…/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.32 TONNES

DEC 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JAN 15/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 797.71 tonnes

*IN LAST 534 TRADING DAYS: 137.45 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 434 TRADING DAYS: A NET 22.55 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JAN 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 469,000 OZ FROM ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.163 MILLION OZ/

JAN 14/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 11/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 9/WITH SILVER  UP 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 313.632 MILLION OZ/???

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ

JAN 7/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.347 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ/

JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ

JAN 3/2019/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS A SMALL CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 118,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ/

JAN 2/2019/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 28/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AN ADDITION OF 94,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317,233

DEC 26/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ

DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.408 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/ INV. RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 751,000 OZ INTO THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.547 MILLION OZ/

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/

DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 939,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/.

DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY ESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

 

 

JAN 15/2019:

 

Inventory 313.163 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.38/ and libor 6 month duration 2.85

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .47

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.62%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.01

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.41

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Where Wi

 

* * *

GATA STORIES AS IT RELATES TO PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER

I do not think that Venezuela has much gold to refine…

Turkey which does not refine much gold is offering to refine this Venezuelan gold. Turkey is now turning their faces away from uSA interests

(courtesy Ahval/GATA)

Turkey set to refine more Venezuelan gold as Maduro sends committee

 Section: 

From Ahval, Berlin, Germany
Monday, January 14, 2019

A committee from Venezuela is set to arrive in Turkey to discuss a gold-refining deal between Ankara and Caracas, pro-government Yeni Safak daily reported.

The group sent by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro will visit Turkey’s central province of Corum, where it’s looking to conduct bilateral trade talks and refine thousands of tons of Venezuelan gold as part of an inspection of Turkey’s gold-refining facilities, the newspaper said.

The delegation arrives as Turkey continues to set up joint ventures with the Venezuelan government for gold and coal exploration and has started investing in the country’s oil industry. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://ahvalnews.com/venezuela-turkey/turkey-set-refine-more-venezuelan…

* * *

END





iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

Nicholas B emails Bill Murphy and myself and talks about what is going on at the lBMA

end

 

 

 

 

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.7614/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS ON TRUCE/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7695   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 24.58 PTS OR 1.56%

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 531.96POINTS OR 2.02%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 195.59  POINTS OR .96%

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 95.91/Euro FALLS TO 1.1422

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.11/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 50.97 and Brent: 59.61

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.21%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.85% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.39%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.64: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.27

3k Gold at $1290.90 silver at:15.59   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 7/100 in roubles/dollar) 67.08

3m oil into the 50 dollar handle for WTI and 59 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.36 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9869 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1269 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.21%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.69% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.04%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.4466

 

 

 

Global Rally Fizzles As Traders Look Beyond Latest Chinese Stimulus

One week after unveiling its latest monetary easing in the form of an RRR cut, China unveiled yet more stimulus, this time fiscal, announcing it will cut taxes “on a larger scale,” increasingly relying on tax cuts as the first line of defense against a slowing economy, in a departure from the infrastructure binges of the past. And while this was sufficient to boost global equities overnight, and helped push most global markets into the green…

… much of the rally fizzled as US equity futures trimmed half of their overnight gains…

… while European stocks were almost unchanged after starting off sharply higher.

Earlier, Asian stocks rose on Tuesday, supported by a bounce in Chinese shares amid hopes for government stimulus following the latest dismal Chinese trade data. MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan recovered from early losses and advanced 1.3%. South Korea’s Kospi hit a one-month high and Japan’s Nikkei added 1 percent as the USDJPY rebounded in early trading.

In China, the CSI300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen shares was up 1.7% amid expectations of more government policy measures to prop-up a slowing economy while lending data from the country beat estimates in December. The Shanghai Composite closed at session highs, up 1.4%.

China’s state planning agency said on Tuesday it will aim to achieve “a good start” in the first quarter for the economy in a signal of more growth-boosting steps. State television also quoted Chinese Premier Li Keqiang as saying the government is seeking to establish conditions helpful to meeting this year’s economic goals.

As Bloomberg notes, the potential stimulus in China and warm welcome it received from markets reflects the delicate balance underpinning 2019’s risk-asset rebound: The same weak macro data that prompted a sell-off at the end of last year has the potential to spur looser monetary policies and therefore ignite a rally.

Cyclical shares led the gains in Asia-Pacific, with Australian financial shares at their highest since early December while Japanese electronics and machinery makers shares rose to their best levels in six weeks. “It is interesting that cyclicals are leading the gains today. It appears some contrarian investors are starting to buy cyclicals, looking beyond the last economic slowdown,” said Nobuhiko Kuramochi, chief strategist at Mizuho Securities. “But I would suspect there will be heavy selling if we go up further, to around 2,650 in the S&P500 and 21,500 in the Nikkei,” Kuramochi added.

The rally carried over to Europe with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index still higher for the fifth day in six, though the rally fizzled as the session progressed as traders discounted China’s latest promise stimulus.

Gauges in Hong Kong and Shanghai were among the biggest gainers after senior Chinese officials vowed tax cuts to boost growth,

Contracts on the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones indexes all rose, with the EMini briefly breaching the 2,600 resistance level before heading lower.

The dollar strengthened and the yen fell. The euro dropped after German data confirmed the weakest year for growth since 2013 although after German GDP dipped 0.2%, the Federal Statistics Office said the country had narrowly avoided a recession.

Treasuries edged higher as most European bonds gained. The sterling braced for the vote in parliament over the British government’s plan to exit the European Union.

However, despite a barrage of bank earnings, the British pound is expected to steal the limelight later in the day as the Britain’s parliament votes on the proposed Brexit deal. On Monday, May urged lawmakers to take a “second look” at her deal, which lawmakers are expected to reject. Such a result could produce a wide range of outcomes, from a disorderly exit from the union to a reversal of Brexit.

“Markets have priced in a rejection of May’s plan and there are many scenarios after that. Still I’d think the most likely outcome is to extend the (March 29) deadline of Brexit,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management.

Indeed, currency option markets are barely pricing in the chances of sharp moves in sterling. The pound’s one-month implied volatility stood at 12.625 percent, above the average for the past year of around 8.8 percent well off 20-percent plus levels seen in the days just before the UK referendum on June 23, 2016.

The pound dropped below $1.29, having hit a two-month high of $1.2930 on Monday after a report, subsequently denied, that a pro-Brexit faction of lawmakers could support May’s deal. Additionally, Germany denied reports that German Chancellor Merket offered concessions to UK PM May; following reports that German Chancellor Merkel has offered PM May certain last-minute assistance, while reports also noted that PM May is considering a 2nd vote on Brexit deal if first one is rejected. German Foreign Minister Maas later said that if the current deal is rejected by UK parliament there could be new talks with the EU. UK cabinet ministers suggested that PM May will be expected to stand down if she is heavily defeated in the Brexit vote, according to source report.

UK Labour MP Benn has confirmed he has pulled amendment this morning as part of an effort by Labour party to table vote of no confidence this evening. The amendment, if passed, would reject the withdrawal agreement, convey a lack of support for no deal and pave the way for MPs to put forward alternative plans for Brexit. Opposition for the amendment comes from Labour leadership believing that it’s passage would offer PM May the opportunity to pull her deal, therefore sparing her a crushing defeat. Furthermore, Sky analysis believes that the UK Government are to lose the meaningful vote by 226 votes.

In geopolitical news President Trump is said to have sent a letter to North Korea leader Kim and reports also noted North Korean official Kim Yong Chol may visit Washington D.C. this week regarding a 2nd Trump-Kim summit. Furthermore, it was also reported that US Secretary of State Pompeo may conduct talks this week with North Korea. Additionally, US President Trump tweeted that he spoke with Turkish President Erdogan in which topics discussed included economic development between US and Turkey, while he also suggested that there is great potential for a significant expansion.

China’s Foreign Ministry says facts show China is safe and Canada has arbitrarily detained foreign citizen; adding that the Canadian side can abandon prejudices and quit making irresponsible remarks. Adding that it is clear the Huawei Executive Meng’s case is not normal and is an abuse of legal procedures

Elsewhere in commodities, oil prices also rebounded on supply cuts by producer club OPEC and Russia. International Brent crude oil futures were at $59.80 per barrel, or 1.37 percent from their last close.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,588.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 349.02
  • MXAP up 1.1% to 152.24
  • MXAPJ up 1.4% to 492.62
  • Nikkei up 1% to 20,555.29
  • Topix up 0.9% to 1,542.72
  • Hang Seng Index up 2% to 26,830.29
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.4% to 2,570.34
  • Sensex up 1.2% to 36,281.60
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 5,814.56
  • Kospi up 1.6% to 2,097.18
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.6 bps to 0.205%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.1432
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to 2.483%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.5 bps to 1.384%
  • Brent futures up 0.9% to $59.52/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,288.12
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 95.84

Top Overnight News

  • British and European Union diplomats are now working on the assumption that the U.K. will leave the bloc later than the planned exit date of March 29 if Prime Minister Theresa May loses Tuesday’s Brexit deal vote in Parliament
  • China’s government is turning increasingly to tax cuts as the first line of defense against a slowing economy, in a departure from the infrastructure binges of the past
  • China’s credit growth exceeded expectations in December, with the second acceleration in a row indicating the government and central bank’s efforts to spur lending are having an effect
  • Germany’s economy narrowly avoided a recession at the end of 2018 after a slump in industry raised concerns over Europe’s growth engine
  • Swedish Social Democrat leader Stefan Lofven has one day to form consensus for a new government
  • Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke by phone and tamped down their public rhetoric Monday after the U.S. president warned the country risked economic ruin if it defies him. Wild lira ride awaits if the central bank cut rates
  • OPEC and its allies plan to hold a meeting in March to assess their oil-production accord in Azerbaijan, and then ministers will gather to set policy in April, according to the organization’s top official
  • Kim Jong Un told the world this month that North Korea took steps to stop making nuclear weapons in 2018, a shift from his earlier public statements. The evidence shows production has continued, and possibly expanded

Asian equity markets were mostly higher as sentiment in the region recovered from the recent China-triggered weakness that had been due to disappointing trade data which dragged the US major indices to their first consecutive loss of the year. Nonetheless, risk appetite improved overnight with both ASX 200 (+0.7%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.9%) positive, in which the latter recovered from early selling pressure as it initially tracked the prior day’s losses on return from its long weekend. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (+1.4%) and Hang Seng (+2.0%) were underpinned amid a deluge of comments from Chinese agencies including the Finance Ministry which stated that China will implement larger tax and fee cuts, while the NDRC said China will continue implementing proactive fiscal policies. In addition, the PBoC conducted a respectable liquidity injection of CNY 180bln but expects a rapid decline of banking liquidity in the approaching days, while there were also hopes for an improvement in the trade environment after reports that super tankers carrying 6mln bbls of crude left the Texas coast and are likely heading to China. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued as the gains in stocks sapped demand for safe-havens and following the recent similar pressure in T-notes, but with losses stemmed amid the BoJ’s presence for JPY 1tln of JGBs with maturities spread across the curve.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Yuan Defies Dismal Economy to Head for Six-Month High
  • China Is Making Tax Cuts the Key Weapon Against the Slowdown
  • China Adding Stimulus Emboldens Asia Stock Traders to Hit ‘Buy’
  • UBS Asset Turns Bullish on Junk China Property Dollar Bonds

Major European indices are relatively flat [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%] as equity markets gave up initial gains post German FY GDP of +1.5%. Marginal underperformance is seen in the FTSE MIB (-0.2%) where banking names such as UBI Banca (-5.7%), Bper Banca (-4.3%) and Banco BPM (-3.8 %) are at the bottom of the index following the ECB asking Italian banks to set aside additional money to fully cover impaired loans by 2026. Sectors are similarly all in the green, with outperformance in materials and industrials. Other notable movers include gambling names after the US Justice Department stated that all online gambling is now illegal; as such William Hill (-1.6%) and Paddy Power (-1.8%) are in the red. At the bottom of the Stoxx 600 are Provident Financial (-18.0%) following the Co stating that they expect 2018 profits to report towards the lower end of market expectations.

Top European News

  • Draghi Readies for First New Year Speech as Economy Falter
  • Brexit Donor Hargreaves Says U.K. May’s Deal Should Be Rejected
  • Hungary Faces Price Dilemma as Core Inflation Quickens Again
  • Russia Has Room to Cut Dollar Reserves by Another $35b, ING Says

In FX, EUR largely on the backfoot amid a strengthening Dollar and following the release of German annual GDP which printed in-line with forecasts at 1.50% Y/Y, the weakest performance in five years with market participants noting that a German technical recession could have been narrowly missed (with the Q4 release scheduled on 14th Feb). EUR/USD sits around the bottom of a 1.1423-91 band ahead of a double-Draghi day, his first speech however provided little in way of monetary policy commentary. Back to the dollar, DXY received a wave of demand shortly after the German numbers with DXY spiking to highs of around 95.900 from overnight lows of 95.450 with State-side news flow on the light side.

JPY, CHF – Conforming more to the bout of dollar strength rather than an unwind in safe-haven positions with both USD/JPY and USD/CHF higher by around 0.4% on the day ahead of the Brexit meaningful vote. USD/JPY advances further above 108.00 after having reclaimed the handle during overnight trade and currently resides nearer to the top of a 108.15-75 range ahead of a Fib a 109.16 with little to report on the options expiry front. Similar action with the Franc as USD/CHF breached 0.9850 to the upside ahead of its 100 and 200 DMAs at 0.9878 and 0.9889 respectively.

  • GBP – Choppy session for the Pound thus far as traders eye the long-awaited House of Commons meaningful vote scheduled for later today (full schedule available on the headline feed), as PM May attempts to accumulate MP backing to pass her deal. According to the Sun’s Political Editor, Senior Tories believe the Premier is poised for a 150-160 vote defeat tonight, though a list of amendments will be released at the start of the Parliamentary session around 12.45GMT with special focus on Murrison amendment (setting an expiry date of 31st December 2021 to the NI backstop) as a way of snatching a narrow defeat. Tory Brexiteers and the DUPs are known to not support a deal which includes a timeless backstop or a unilateral exit clause, Murrison’s amendment seeks to readdress this and if passed, may shore up some support from the rebels, DUP are said to have rejected this amendment in belief the EU will not be bound by the expiry date. Earlier in the day Hilary Benn’s amendment was pulled out amid the opposition leaders’ desire for PM May to suffer a crushing defeat (the amendment, if it was to be passed, would have rejected the withdrawal agreement, convey a lack of support for no deal and pave the way for MPs to put forward alternative plans for Brexit). As such, Cable pared back overnight gains and gave up the 1.2900 handle to test the psychological (and 50 HMA) at 1.2850 to the downside and currently resides at the bottom of a 1.2831-1.2915 intraday range. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley assumes that Cable at current levels is pricing in a lot of uncertainty and assumes GBP/USD to reach 1.30 in around 6-month and 1.50 by year-end as Cable’s PPP fair value estimate stands at 1.40.

In commodities, Brent (+1.7%) and WTI (+1.6%) are higher as the risk tone improves from the Chinese-trade sparked downturn seen in yesterday’s session, with prices just under the USD 60/bbl and USD 51/bbl respectively. Focus is on the API weekly release later in the day, where crude oil inventories are expected to have declined by 2.5mln/bbl; separately, the EIA are to release their Short-Term Energy Outlook today which contains their expanded forecast discussion. Saudi Energy Minister Al Falih says he sees oil demand growth for the foreseeable future, and that the 1.2mln BPD OPEC+ cut will have a strong impact which will take some time to be reflected within the market. Gold (-0.1%) prices are down as the demand for safe havens has declined with the improvement in risk sentiment; with the yellow metal trading towards the bottom of its USD 5/oz range. Elsewhere, the US Senate are to begin voting today on a resolution which criticises the Trump administration’s decision to reduce sanctions on companies which are connected to Russian oligarch Deripaska; which includes aluminium company Rusal.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, est. 10, prior 10.9
  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 0.1%; PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30am: PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%;PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.95%, prior 2.7%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

If you want to depress yourself this morning read the guidance from the British Nutrition Foundation released yesterday which suggested that for optimum health food portion sizes should be measured by hands, thumbs and fists. After reading it I indeed wanted to use my fists but not for the reason intended by the author.

As examples, if you’re having jacket potatoes the correct portion size is a clenched fist (I might try to use Mike Tyson’s). For cheese it should be the size of two thumbs (I note that the largest thumb ever recorded was a Chinese man who had one measuring 10.2 inches), for pasta or rice two handfuls is the recommended amount (I shall resort to wearing wicket keeping or baseball gloves while cooking). All rather depressing. Maybe instead you should join me in “Dry January”. Yes this month I shall only be indulging in dry white wine, dry champagnes, dry martinis, dry sherry and dry gins and tonics.

You may need a stiff drink to work out what happens next after tonight’s Brexit vote in the House of Commons. On timings the vote is due to take place after the debate finishes at 7pm GMT with votes on amendments coming first. In all likelihood the vote looks set to fail given that PM May has failed to secure the necessary support from MPs in recent weeks. DB’s Oliver Harvey estimates a 20% probability of May resigning post the vote (or cabinet collectively withdrawing support) and an 80% chance of her staying on as leader. In the case of the latter, the government will have to provide an updated strategy by Monday after last week’s surprise amendment that voted to shorten it from over three weeks to three days.

Throwing all the balls into the air, DB’s Oli Harvey believes there are five corresponding scenarios. The most likely scenario (at a 30% probability) is May pivots towards a cross party consensus on a new mandate which would instruct the government to renegotiate the Political Declaration on the Future Relationship towards a softer relationship. For this to be reached, it might be necessary for the Labour Party to call, and lose, a vote of no confidence in the government first. A small extension on Article 50 is probably necessary for this scenario as well as another round of EU negotiations. The other four scenarios are; a 10% chance of May using multiple votes to force through the existing deal in the face of a crash Brexit, a 15% chance of a second referendum, a 15% chance of a new election and a 10% chance of no deal/crash Brexit. Regarding the worst case latter scenario, the news that the EU appears prepared to extend Article 50 to July or beyond does appear to be a material positive to lowering the odds of no deal at all. Anyway more in Oli’s note from yesterday here .

Ahead of vote today on PM May’s deal, the Commons Speaker, John Bercow will select amendments from those suggested by MPs. The amendments to be considered range from Labour’s, which rejects the current deal while also repudiating a no-deal Brexit and calling for the Government to examine all available options, to the Lib-Dem’s, which calls for a second referendum. A vast majority of others are related to the Northern Ireland backstop arrangement with the Conservative MP Andrew Murrison calling for an amendment that would put a time limit on the Northern Ireland backstop, aimed at reducing the scale of the expected government defeat. Meanwhile, Labour MP Hilary Benn is withdrawing his amendment, which had cross-party support and rejected both the current deal and a no-deal outcome (similar to Labour’s proposal). Mrs May is reportedly considering amendments which would put time limits on the Northern Ireland backstop, in an effort to regain support from the DUP. Such a framework has already been rejected by the EU, so it’s not clear how useful a winning vote on this would be. Sterling is up +0.26% in early trade this morning ahead of today’s vote.

Onto markets and for only the third time this year US equities closed lower across the board yesterday as that soft trade data out of China in the morning, in addition to a bit of general fatigue for risk assets following the recent strong run, appeared to be enough of an excuse for investors to pull back a little. The S&P 500, NASADQ and DOW closed -0.53%, -0.94% and -0.36% respectively although at one stage it looked like it might have been worse firstly with PG&E (-53.36%) taking the wider utilities sector (-2.23%) down after announcing plans to file for Chapter 11 and then Citigroup reporting lower than expected Q4 revenues. However, the latter never really fed its way through to the wider banks sector with Citi’s shares, actually closing up +3.95% after the CEO said that conditions have improved so far in January. Plus, digging into the results, credit quality improved for both corporate and consumer loans, and expenses declined. The wider S&P Banks sector ending +1.36% in what was a rare bright spot for the broader index. JP Morgan and Wells Fargo, two of the three largest US banks by market cap, are due to report earnings later today.

Meanwhile, US HY cash spreads edged +4bps wider, while 10-year Treasury yields traded flat. Two-year yields rallied -0.6bps, helping the 2s10s curve to steepen slightly at 16.5bps and more or less in the middle of the range since the start of December. The USD was a touch weaker, as Fed Vice Chair Clarida reiterated his recent guidance in an interview. He said the Fed can afford to be patient and assess policy “meeting by meeting”, so continuing to signal no immediate urgency to raise rates. WTI oil ticked down -1.61% to mark the first two-day decline for oil this year.

A quick refresh of our screens this morning indicates that risk-on is back in Asia with the Nikkei (+0.80%), Hang Seng (+1.54%), Shanghai Comp (+0.96%) and Kospi (+1.31%) all up as China indicated that it will cut taxes “on a larger scale” to help support its slowing economy, according to agreements reached by top leadership at the economic work conference last month. China’s onshore yuan is up +0.23% alongside most Asian currencies. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.58% while crude oil prices (WTI +1.15% and Brent +1.12%) are also trading higher.

Aside from the China data yesterday, the only other major release of note came in Europe with the November industrial production reading for the Euro Area. The data was worse than feared at -1.7% mom (vs. -1.5% expected) and means the year-on-year reading is now down to -3.3% and the lowest since 2012. In Germany, wholesale prices fell -1.2% mom, the sharpest drop since 2014 and the second sharpest since 2009. There is increasing chatter about a technical recession being possible in Germany for Q4 and Q1 so data like this isn’t helping rule that out.

To the day ahead now, where the early data releases in Europe this morning include the final December CPI revisions in France and the final 2018 GDP reading for Germany. For the latter the consensus is expecting a 1.5% increase in real GDP after 2.2% in 2017 (our economists forecast 1.6%). Also out this morning is the November trade balance for the Euro Area, while this afternoon in the US, we’ve got the January empire manufacturing print and December PPI report. The latter is expected to show a -0.1% mom decline in the headline and +0.2% mom increase for the core. Away from the data, we’re due to hear from ECB President Draghi this afternoon, followed by Fed officials Kashkari, George and Kaplan later on. Needless to say the aforementioned Brexit vote this evening will be a big focus while the key companies reporting earnings include JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Delta Airlines and UnitedHealth.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 34.58 PTS OR 1.56% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 531.96 POINTS OR 2.02% /The Nikkei closed UP 195.59  PTS OR .96%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.66%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7614 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 51.10 dollars per barrel for WTI and 59.91 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED /RED 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.7614 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7695: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

 

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/CHINA

 

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA

i)CHINA/USA

 

l

 

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY/EUROPE/

According to Italy’s PMi Salvini, Europe could collapse over the migration issue.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Europe Could “Collapse” Over Migration Says Italy PM; Salvini Insists “Paris-Berlin Axis” Must Change

Italy’s Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte, said on Monday that the European Union risks collapsing unless it is able to find common ground on mass migration.

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte“If we continue to stall without a shared path, we risk bringing down the European building,” Conte remarked at a press conference discussing a recent meeting in Rome with European Home Affairs Commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos.

“We presented what Italy has done up to now to Avramopoulos,” said Conte, adding “We are bringing in a change of direction that is bearing fruit.”

While discussing Italian efforts to curb mass migration, Conte said: Italy had been left alone and now are are coping alone. We didn’t talk about a naval blockade with Avramopoulos but we discussed instruments to defend the borders, which is a very important issue for managing (migrant) flows.”

Avramopoulos also met with Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, who has led the country’s tough stance against NGO-operated migrant transport ships across the mediterranean to Italian ports.

Salvini, speaking with RAI’s Tg2 bulletin, Salvini knocked France and Germany for “dictating legislature” over the past decade, adding that he and his allies in other EU countries “want to change Europe, not destroy it,” reports Bloomberg.

French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Interior Minister Matteo Salvini“For many years France and Germany have been laying down the law in Europe,” said Salvini, adding “Everything has been done based on the Paris-Berlin axis.”

“I am trying to put together an alliance focusing on jobs and families,” Salvini stated. “In Italy we have done better than the governments of Mario Monti and Matteo Renzi, in Europe we’ll do better than Juncker and Schulz.”

END

Italy now wants to build an anti EU axis on the populist program.  They are teaming up with Hungary on this issue. The central them is that they are anti immigrate

(courtesy Kern/Gatestone)

 

Italy Building Anti-EU Axis


France

Riots continue in France where the police are now using semi automatic weapons trying to quell the yellow vests. Macron is losing grip on his country.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

French Riot Police Deploy Semi-Automatic Weapons Against Yellow Vests As Macron Loses Grip On Country

French riot police were pictured brandishing Heckler & Koch G36 semi-automatic rifles with 30-round magazines near the Arc de Triomphe in Paris on Saturday afternoon, reports the Daily Mail.

French riot police brandishing H&K G36 semi-automatic rifle

The deployment of rifles with presumably live ammunition visible through the magazine is an intimidating escalation as President Emmanuel Macron continues to lose his grip over France following nine weeks of country-wide protests by the Gilet Jaunes (Yellow Vest) movement.

The Gilet Jaunes began as a demonstration against a climate change-linked fuel tax, which quickly morphed into a general anti-government protest against the Macron administration and the world’s highest taxes. We’re sure France’s plege to send 1 billion euros to rebuild Iraq will help calm them down.

Drew Ludwig@drew_ludwig93

Riot police in France now armed with G36 assault rifles against unarmed civilians. WHERE IS THE NEWS COVERAGE?https://streamable.com/wh802 

 

Yellow Vest demonstrator Gilles Caron told the Mail “The CRS with the guns were wearing riot control helmets and body armour – they were not a specialised firearms unit,” adding “Their job was simply to threaten us with lethal weapons in a manner which is very troubling. We deserve some explanations.”

A French National Police spokesman confirmed that the CRS were equipped with H&K G36s on Saturday, but would not discuss their operational use ‘for security reasons’.

A G36 was stolen from inside a police van during a similar Yellow Vest demonstration by the Arc de Triomphe on December 1.

A number of vehicles belonging to the 21stIntervention Company of the Paris Prefecture were stormed, suggesting that the theft was an opportunistic one during a day of intense violence, when the Arc de Triomphe itself was vandalised. –Daily Mail

Former French conservative minister Luc Ferry called for live rounds to be used against the Yellow Vest “thugs” who “beat up police,” such as this former pro heavyweight boxer, 37-year-old Christophe Dettinger who was arrested after squaring off with several French police officers.

Embedded video

LINE PRESS@LinePress

très forte mobilisation à le peuple en colère force les barrages de police

Ferry – a full time philosopher now, said: “What I don’t understand is that we don’t give the means to the police to put an end to this violence.” When challenged with the suggestion that the guns might lead to bloodshed, Ferry said: “So what? Listen, frankly, when you see guys beating up an unfortunate policeman on the floor, that’s when they should use their weapons once and for all! That’s enough.

What the H&K G36 looks like in action:

 END

UK/the historical vote:

 

huge defeat for May
(courtesy zerohedge)

In Humiliating Defeat For May, Brexit Deal Rejected By Overwhelming 230-Vote Margin

Update 9: The House has adjourned for the day, and cable has continued its ascent toward the $1.2850 level.

Cable

* * *

Update 8: Steve Baker, director of the Brexiteer faction in the European Research Group, has met with May to lay out what is presumably their preferred alternative to May’s Brexit plan.

A temporary free-trade agreement only about the movement of goods, which wouldn’t need the ratification of the EU’s 27 members A temporary zero tariff on some imports from the EU in order to keep food prices down The U.K. could withhold some or all of its 39 billion-pound annual contribution, as it is not in an implementation period May’s government could force the measure through by secondary legislation to an existing act of Parliament or amend future legislation

Meanwhile, amid the chaos in the aftermath of Tuesday’s vote, this quote reportedly used by Winston Churchill to mock Americans is once again being thrown around to mock the fractiousness in May’s conservative party.

You can always count on them to do the right thing – after they have tried everything else.”

A reporter for one German newspaper, citing several EU27 sources, said they would support delaying Brexit Day until the end of June (though a recent ECJ decision granted the EU unilateral authority to do so).

* * *

Update 7: In a silver lining for May, the DUP has said it will back May in Wednesday’s no confidence vote, meaning that the only way for the opposition to topple the government would be for a number of Tory rebels to side with Labour which is…unlikely.

* * *

Update 6: Comment from European leaders are starting to break on  twitter, with the Austrian PM insisting that, though the defeat of the deal is unfortunate, there won’t be a renegotiation of the deal.

In one of the more aggressive comments, Donald Tusk seemed to imply that, if the deal is so unpopular, maybe the UK should reconsider this whole Brexit thing.

Donald Tusk

@eucopresident

If a deal is impossible, and no one wants no deal, then who will finally have the courage to say what the only positive solution is?

The pound has broken above $1.28.

2

* * *

Update 5: The pound kneejerked lower, but swiftly recovered as traders realized that the overwhelming defeat means the EU may now reconsider its decision not to reopen negotiations.

It’s now up on the day.

GBPUSD

May said in a speech that “we must focus on ideas that are genuinely negotiable.” She also denied that the government’s strategy is to run down the clock.

Before officially tabling his motion of no confidence, Jeremy Corbyn called for a permanent customs union, saying a permanent customs union must be secured, after gloating over the worst defeat for a government since the 1920s. No deal must be taken off the table and people’s rights and protections must be secured.

“I inform you Mr. Speaker I have now tabled a motion of no confidence in this government and I’m pleased that motion will be debated tomorrow so this House can give its verdict on the sheer incompetence of this government.”

* * *

Update 4: May has lost by a 230 vote margin. As the results were read out, the Commons erupted in commotion.

The final results: 432-202

The pound is puking.

GBOP

* * *

Update 3: Minutes before the final results are due, reporters have noted that the ‘no’ lobby is mobbed. “It’s safe to say May’s deal is sunk”, one commented.

Word is the government only has 202 votes – which would mean a sizable defeat. That would be 475 against, an overwhelming rejection that would bring her ability to schedule another vote into question.

Though that’s nothing we didn’t already know.

* * *

Update 2: The Baron amendment has been rejected by a vote of 24-600. The amendment would have called for the UK to have the ability to unilaterally leave the backstop.

The Bent Nebulouser #WTOBrexit@RealityCheckout

Amendment (f) results in:

AYE 24
NO 600

Majority 576

😅

See The Bent Nebulouser #WTOBrexit’s other Tweets

The rejection of the amendment, which May opposed, is a resounding win for the prime minister. Cable has caught a slight bid on the news.

Stocks legged lower after the Brexit headline hit, which could be a sign that algos read “reject” in the headline and reflexively dumped.

Stocks

* * *

Update: The voting has just begun but there’s already been a handful of surprises. Three of the four accepted amendments have been dropped, so voting will proceed on the final amendment (the Baron amendment, backed by a cross-party group of legislators) before proceeding directly to the motion to pass.

Embedded video

BBC Politics

@BBCPolitics

MPs begin their , starting with amendment by Conservative MP John Baron

Live updates: http://bbc.in/2DaADGH 

317 is the magic number needed for the motion to pass.

Bloomberg now expects the final tally to arrive by 2:30 pm ET. Cable is flat as voting begins.

* * *

After months of fractious negotiations during which Theresa May has repeatedly tried – and failed – to win over intransigent Tories and members of the small Northern Irish party upon which she depends for her tenuous Parliamentary majority, May’s supremely unpopular Brexit withdrawal deal is finally coming up for a vote in the House of Commons.

Almost nobody, including May herself, expects it to pass. In fact, most analysts expect the deal to be defeated by a wide margin of at least 150 votes, which would be tantamount to the worst defeat for a British government in 95 years, according to Bloomberg.

At least 70 members of May’s party have publicly pledged to oppose the deal, and members of the Brexiteer European Research Group have also vowed to vote down each of the four proposed amendments that MPs will be decided before the deal comes up for a vote.

The debate and the votes will be broadcast live from Westminster following a speech from May. Readers can watch the action below:

May has just over two months to secure a withdrawal agreement palatable to both Parliament and the EU27 leaders, or risk a delay of Article 50 – which would push back the Brexit deadline – or possibly a chaotic ‘no deal’ outcome (though Parliament has recently taken steps to ensure that a ‘no deal’ exit would require the explicit approval of Parliament). UK diplomats are reportedly already working under the assumption that the March 29 “Brexit Day” will likely be delayed.

Per the Wall Street Journalfour amendments to the motion to pass the deal have been selected by John Bercow, the Speaker of the House of Commons, including one that would exclude a no-deal Brexit and another that would put a time limit on the UK’s transition out of the EU. Another amendment, which May has said isn’t palatable to Brexiteers (or the EU) is the Leigh amendment, which would put a time limit on the backstop.

Steven Swinford

@Steven_Swinford

BREAKING

Bad news for Downing Street

John Bercow has selected FOUR amendments:

Corbyn amendment, SNP amendment, Edward Leigh amendment and John Baron amendment.

NOT Murrison or Swire

 

In theory, the amendments would give May, Parliament and the EU a better idea of what Parliament would accept. May is expected to return to Brussels within 48 hours of Tuesday’s vote to meet with EU leaders, who have recently signaled that they might be open to making some minor changes to the deal. But a stunning defeat in Parliament is seen as an essential step before this can happen.

May

Shortly before the vote was scheduled to begin, headlines crossed the wires reporting that May would return with an even better Brexit deal next week (an amendment passed last week requires May to return with a ‘Plan B’ within a few days of the deal’s defeat).

Screenshot

The latest reports suggest that May’s efforts to convince some Tories to abstain instead of voting against the deal have been ineffective, which suggests the deal likely will lose by a sizable margin. Labour has confirmed that it will be voting against the deal. Party leader Jeremy Corbyn has also threatened to table a motion of no-confidence in May’s government if she loses the vote, saying that Labour would seek another general election.

As analysts try to suss out what the vote could mean for the pound, a team from Capital Economics said that an inconclusive moderate defeat could be the worst outcome because it would increase uncertainty by taking away some incentives for May and the EU to compromise.  A narrow defeat of only 50 votes could send sterling higher, perhaps above $1.30, while a miracle victory for May could send the pound all the way to $1.40.

Meanwhile, cable slipped under $1.27 as traders waited for the votes to begin (currency traders have weighed in with various takes on what they believe could happen to the pound).

Brexit

CE published a table of odds for various outcomes, putting a heavy defeat at the highest likelihood with 53%>

CE

Given the confusion around the arcane Commons rules being invoked to push through the amendments, the House of Commons twitter account has published a handy guide to how the voting will proceed.

UK House of Commons

@HouseofCommons

How will voting on amendments work this evening?
After announcing his provisional selection of amendments, the Speaker explained the process and we’ve turned it into a diagram to make it easier to understand.

Watch the Speaker’s explanation: https://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/27d512b5-9b1d-43a4-80dd-371b0c5c1a5e?in=12:56:53 

1

Looking beyond Tuesday’s vote, Deutsche Bank tabulated the odds for various Brexit outcomes. Ultimately, a loss of 150 votes or more could increase the chances that May resigns or is pushed out following the vote (text courtesy of Deutsche Bank).

A) May resignation/withdrawal of cabinet support: 20% probability. While we think this unlikely, there is a chance Prime Minister May resigns following the vote, particularly should the government’s loss be toward the top end of the scale mentioned above. Another possibility is the cabinet collectively withdraw support, making her position untenable. The main reason why we see this as unlikely is that under Conservative Party rules, unless MPs can agree on a single candidate to replace the Prime Minister, a leadership contest would follow. As Conservative MPs will find it difficult to agree on a single replacement candidate, unless Prime Minister May chooses to resign, we think the cabinet will seek to avoid a de-stabilising leadership contest. Should May resign and a leadership contest materialise, we would anticipate a pro Brexit candidate to be successful. 1While this would increase the likelihood of a no deal Brexit, our base case would be that new elections result, particularly if government policy pivots towards no deal.

B) May remains as leader: 80% probability. The government will then have to provide an updated Brexit strategy to parliament by Monday 21st January. In these circumstances, we see five corresponding scenarios, in order of least to most disruptive.

1) A cross party consensus: 30% probability. Having lost the vote, Prime Minister May pivots towards a cross party approach to EU negotiations or parliament agrees an alternative negotiating mandate and instructs the government to follow it at the next vote on the 21st January or subsequently. For a cross party compromise to be reached, we think it may be necessary for the Labour Party to call, and lose, a vote of no confidence in the government first. We envisage a new mandate would instruct the government to renegotiate the Political Declaration on the Future Relationship towards a softer future relationship. 2 In conjunct with firmer EU commitments linking the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration on the Future Relationship, such a deal should probably carry majority support in parliament. A small (two to four weeks) extension of Article 50 becomes necessary, as well as another round of EU negotiations. We envisage the EU27 would be flexible on both extending Article 50 and reopening talks on the future relationship. This is the most positive scenario, with markets being able to forecast an orderly outcome with a relatively high degree of confidence.

2) A lack of alternatives: 10% probability. Parliamentary consensus does not emerge on the next steps by the vote on the 21st January, or subsequently. Prime Minister May then uses multiple votes to force the existing deal through parliament in the face of a crash Brexit, perhaps after some cosmetic changes to the existing Withdrawal Agreement, and likely with market pressure. Again an extension of Article 50 from the EU27 becomes necessary. This is a more bearish scenario in that it may require market pressure or downside economic risks materialising for MPs to agree.

3) A second referendum: 15% probability. The government’s policy switches to seeking a second Brexit referendum, or (more likely) MPs direct the government to call one at the vote on the 21st January or subsequently. Article 50 is extended to July, or perhaps beyond. We have slightly increased the probability of a second referendum following reports over the last few days the EU27 could envisage an extension of Article 50 beyond the EU Parliament elections in late May, and perhaps well beyond when MEPs take their seats in July. We still believe a bigger sticking point to a second Brexit vote is that while parliamentary consensus could emerge to hold one, consensus on the question asked of the electorate will be more difficult.

4) A new election: 15% probability. May loses the vote and the Labour Party calls a successful confidence motion in the government. After two weeks, assuming a new government cannot be formed, a new election would follow under the Fixed Term Parliament Act. In this scenario, again an extension of Article 50 would be required. We do not see this as a positive scenario in that polls indicate both major parties are close to tied, leading to the risk of an election leading to similar parliamentary gridlock as at present. For a no confidence motion to be successful, the government will have to formally lose the support of the DUP, or a similar number of Conservative MPs from either the extreme pro Brexit or soft Brexit wings of the party.

5) A no deal/crash Brexit: 10% probability. Political deadlock leads to no deal Brexit. This could materialise if a parliamentary consensus does not emerge on an alternative deal, or Prime Minister May fails to get the current Withdrawal Agreement through parliament after multiple times of asking, and a motion of no confidence in the government is unsuccessful.

Scenarios not discussed:

May winning tomorrow’s vote. While we had attached a probability of 40% to May securing political support for the Withdrawal Agreement last week, this was contingent on May pivoting towards a cross party approach in the meantime, which has not materialised. We now do not think there is a realistic probability of the government winning tomorrow’s vote.

Revocation of A50. Following a ruling from the ECJ, it is now technically possible for the UK to unilaterally revoke the Article 50 process (the UK’s exit from the EU). Revoking Article 50 would carry an enormously high political price, however, and we do not see it as likely at this stage.

* * *

Amid all of the chaos ahead of the vote, there are really only two outcomes that most analysts agree on. May will almost certainly lose on Tuesday, and Brexit Day will almost certainly be delayed as May and the EU finally begin work on a modified deal that might have a chance of passing Parliament.

 end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN

Iran launches a satellite and it fails to reach its third stage and thus did not go into orbit. A lot of money down the drain for this bankrupt nation

(courtesy zerohedge)

Iran Satellite Launch Fails After Defying US Warnings

Iran on Tuesday conducted at least one of two planned satellite launches despite warnings from the United States, however the satellite failed to reach the “necessary speed” in its third stage and did not enter orbit, according to an official.

The rocket carrying the Payam satellite failed to reach the “necessary speed” in the third stage of its launch, Telecommunications Minister Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi said.

Jahromi said the rocket had successfully passed its first and second stages before developing problems in the third. He didn’t elaborate on what caused the rocket failure but promised that Iranian scientists would continue their work. –CBS News

The launch took place at Imam Khomeini Space Center in the province of Semnan, and was overseen by the country’s Defense Ministry according to Jahromi. Images published last week by CNN show activity at the launch site.

Tuesday’s launch follows warnings by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who said that the launches would violate a 2015 United Nations Security Resolution by incorporating ballistic missile technology, passed in order to endorse the Iran nuclear deal which Trump withdrew from last May.

“The United States will not stand by and watch the Iranian regime’s destructive policies place international stability and security at risk,” said Pompeo in a Jan. 3 statement. “We advise the regime to reconsider these provocative launches and cease all activities related to ballistic missiles in order to avoid deeper economic and diplomatic isolation.”

That said, the Security Council resolution says Iran “is called upon” not to conduct any activity related to ballistic missiles, but does not ban the activity.

Next up is the Doosti satellite, which may or may not be delayed according to Jahromi, who just tweeted that: “Doosti is waiting for orbit,” adding “We should not come up short or stop. It’s exactly in these circumstances that we Iranians are different than other people in spirit and bravery.”

The Payam satellite was meant for use in communications and imaging and had four cameras, Reuters reports.

Iranian state television had aired footage of its reporter narrating the launch of the Simorgh rocket, shouting over its roar that it sent “a message of the pride, self-confidence and willpower of Iranian youth to the world!”

The TV footage shows the rocket becoming just a pinpoint of light in the darkened sky, but not the moment of its failure. Jahromi’s comments that the problem developed in the launch’s third stage suggest something went wrong after the rocket pushed the satellite out of the Earth’s atmosphere. –CBS News

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu slammed Iran over the launch, accusing Tehran of lying about the “innocent satellite” which was actually “the first stage of an intercontinental missile.”

 

 

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

The following is a good bellwether for global growth:  Goodyear tire slashes guidance and blames China and Europe

(courtesy zerohedge)

Goodyear Tire Slashes Guidance, Blames China, Europe

First Fedex, then Apple, then Delta, then Barnes and Noble, Macys, then American Airlines, then Alibaba, and now Goodyear Tire has just slashed guidance.

In an 8-K filed moments after the tire giant made negative comments at the Detroit auto show, Goodyear warned that full year operating income is now expected to come below the Company’s previous guidance of approximately $1.3 billion, and cautioned that Q4 2018 tire unit volumes declined by approximately 3%. The company blamed the usual suspects, namely the slowing economies in China and  Europe as well as supply constraint in the US, to wit:

  1. continued weakening of the OE environment in China and India,
  2. declines in the winter tire market in Europe late in the quarter,
  3. supply constraints on volume for high-value-added consumer and commercial truck tires in the United States.

The company also noted that while price/mix was positive during the fourth quarter of 2018, it was “less than anticipated due to weaker mix, partially as a result of the supply constraints referred to above.”

In addition, GT added that earnings fell in other tire-related businesses, including with respect to the Company’s U.S. chemical operations.

As a result, Goodyear now expected 2018 net income to be “adversely affected” and the Company’s total segment operating income is expected to be “slightly below” the Company’s previous guidance of approximately $1.3 billion.

The stock promptly tumbled after the warning, and has dragged down peers such as Cooper Tire.

The company’s 8-K (found here) is below:

On January 15 and 16, 2019, representatives of The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (the “Company”) will present at conferences hosted in conjunction with the Detroit Auto Show and will provide an update on the Company’s preliminary 2018 performance.

As part of those presentations, the Company will announce that fourth quarter of 2018 tire unit volumes declined by approximately 3% due to (1) continued weakening of the OE environment in China and India, (2) declines in the winter tire market in Europe late in the quarter, and (3) supply constraints on volume for high-value-added consumer and commercial truck tires in the United States. Price/mix was positive during the fourth quarter of 2018 but was less than anticipated due to weaker mix, partially as a result of the supply constraints referred to above. In addition, earnings fell in other tire-related businesses, including with respect to the Company’s U.S. chemical operations.

As a result of these factors, for the full year of 2018, Goodyear net income is expected to be adversely affected and the Company’s total segment operating income is expected to be slightly below the Company’s previous guidance of approximately $1.3 billion.

As we said recently, expect many more such guidance cuts as companies finally come clean with economic reality and with what Morgan Stanley said over the weekend, will soon be revealed as an earnings recession.

end
the global slowdown is much more advanced that originally thought.
(courtesy Michael Snyder)

These New Numbers Prove The Global Economic Slowdown Is Far More Advanced Than We Thought

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

We continue to get more confirmation that the global economy is slowing down substantially.

On Monday, it was China’s turn to surprise analysts, and the numbers that they just released are absolutely stunning.  When Chinese imports and exports are both expanding, that is a clear sign that the global economy is running on all cylinders, but when both of them are contracting that is an indication that huge trouble is ahead.  And the experts were certainly anticipating substantial increases in both categories in December, but instead there were huge declines.  There is no possible way to spin these numbers to make them look good…

Data from China showed imports fell 7.6 percent year-on-year in December while analysts had predicted a 5-percent rise. Exports dropped 4.4 percent, confounding expectations for a 3-percent gain.

China now accounts for more total global trade than the United States does, and the fact that the numbers for the global economy’s number one trade hub are falling this dramatically is a major warning sign.

And of course it isn’t just China that is experiencing trouble.  In fact, we just witnessed the worst industrial output numbers in Europe “in nearly three years”

Adding to the gloom were weak industrial output numbers from the euro zone, which showed the largest fall in nearly three years.

Softening demand has been felt around the world, with sales of goods ranging from iPhones to automobiles slowing, prompting profit warnings from Apple among others.

If we were headed for a major global recession, these are exactly the types of news stories that we would expect to see.

We also continue to get more indications that the U.S. economy is slowing down significantly.  For example, sales of new homes in the U.S. were down 19 percent in November and 18 percent in December

Sales of newly built homes fell 18 percent in December compared with December of 2017, according to data compiled by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, a California-based housing research and analytics firm.

Due to the partial government shutdown, official government figures on home sales for November and December have not been released.

Sales were also down a steep 19 percent annually in November, according to JBRC’s analysts.

Those are horrific numbers, and they are very reminiscent of what we witnessed back in 2008.

And we also just learned that employers are cutting back on hiring new college grads for the first time in eight years

new report from the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE) shows that for the first time in eight years, managers are pulling back the reins on hiring college grads, with a projected 1.3 percent decrease from last year. Additionally, a survey from Monster.com found that of 350 college students polled, 75 percent don’t have a job lined up yet.

I feel really bad for those that are getting ready to graduate from college, because I know what it is like to graduate in the middle of an economic downturn.  At the time, many of my friends took whatever jobs they possibly could, and some of them never really got on the right track after that.

But the economic environment that is ahead will be much worse than any of the minor recessions that the U.S. has experienced in the past, and that means things are going to be extremely tough for our college graduates.  And the total amount of student loan debt in this country has roughly tripled over the last decade, and so a lot of these young people are going to enter the real world with crippling amounts of debt but without the good jobs that they were promised would be there upon graduation.

As economic conditions have begun to deteriorate, I have had more people begin to ask me about what they can do to get prepared for what is coming.  And I always start off by telling them the exact same thing.  Today, 78 percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, but when an economic downturn strikes that is precisely what you do not want to be doing.

Some people that I hear from insist that there is no possible way that they can put together an emergency fund because they are already spending everything that they are bringing in.

And yes, it is true that there are some people out there that are so financially stretched that they literally do not have a single penny to spare even though they are being extremely frugal, but the majority of us definitely have areas where we can cut back.

I realize that “cutting back” does not sound fun.  But not being able to pay your mortgage when things get really bad will be a whole lot less fun.

Right now people should be focusing on reducing expenses and trying to make some extra money.  Use whatever time we have left before things get really bad to put yourself into a better financial position.  If you have at least a little bit of money to fall back on, it will make your life much less stressful in the long run.

In addition, anything that you can do to become more independent of the system is a good thing.  On a very basic level, learning to grow a garden can end up saving you a ton of money.  I was just at the grocery store earlier today, and food is getting really expensive.  When the Federal Reserve says that we are in a “low inflation” environment, I always wonder what world they are living on.

When I got up to the register today, I almost felt like they were going to ask me what organ I wanted to donate in order to pay for my groceries.  Unfortunately, the price of food right now is actually quite low compared to what it is going to be in the days ahead.

So I guess I shouldn’t complain too much.

I think that I have just been in a foul mood all day ever since I came across Gillette’s new “toxic masculinity” ad.

Ladies and gentlemen, 2019 is off to quite a rough start, and things are likely to get a whole lot rougher.

As always, let us hope for the best, but let us also get prepared for the worst.

end

 

.

 

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

/INDIA

This will hurt India’s GDP:  India just staged the largest strike in its history as 200 million workers took to the street; This lasted for two days.

(courtesy zerohedge)

India Just Staged The Biggest Strike In History As 200 Million Workers Took To The Streets

In what may be the largest worker strike in history, last week India came to a halt for two days when at least 200 million workers – about 16% of India’s 1.25 billion population – in the country’s public, services, communications and agriculture sectors staged a strike across the country organized by ten labor unions against what they called the anti-national and anti-worker policies of the BJP-led government, and against a new labor law that would undermine the rights of workers and unions.

The strike is a protest against new legislation that passed on 2 January, and is a de facto verdict on Prime Minister Narendra Modi providing an opportunity for millions of workers to protest against high prices and high levels of unemployment, something we touched upon in “The Indian Railway System Announced 63,000 Job Openings… 19 Million People Applied.

John Dayal, general secretary of the All India Christian Council, told AsiaNews that the event was exceptional, “one of the largest ever organised in the country, planned in advance in every detail.” In his view, the most important thing is that it “is taking place on the eve of general elections that will mark the fate of the prime minister”.

While the massive strike took place in an overall context of calm, there were numerous incidents confirming that social anger in the world’s second most populous nation is also approaching a breaking point: protesters blocked several cities, clashes broke out and damage were reported; a 57-year-old woman died in in Mundagod, a city in northern Karnataka, during a local protest. In Maharashtra more than 5,000 workers blocked the Mumbai-Baroda-Jaipur-Delhi highway. In Puducherry (Pondicherry), on the east coast, protesters hurled stones at a Tamil Nadu state bus.  Transport services closed and rail services were disrupted in Kerala. In Odisha (Orissa), shops, schools, offices and markets shut down for 48 hours. In West Bengal, protesters burnt effigies of Prime Minister Modi.

The national strike was an initiative of the Central Trade Unions (CTU), which is an India-wide labor federation. Unions are opposed to the Trade Unions (Amendment) Bill of 2018 which modified the Trade Union Act of 1926.

Under the law, trade union recognition is mandatory at both at national and state level. However, workers believe that the new law grants the government discretionary power in recognizing labor organizations, effectively eliminating the current bargaining process involving employees, employers and the government.

Unions demanded the enactment of the Social Security Act to protect workers and a minimum wage of 24,000 rupees (more than US$ 340) for the unorganised transport sector.

Workers in banking, insurance, healthcare, education, transport, electricity and coal mining also joined the strike. Student groups also protested as did farmers’ associations that have threatened to call a gramin hartal, a rural strike. Farmers have been protesting for months over the harsh conditions in the countryside, burdened by debt and an wave of suicides.

Tapan Sen, secretary general of the Centre of Indian Trade Unions (CITU), one of the striking labor organisations, criticized Prime Minister Modi’s government for killing the work culture in the country’s public sectors by favoring private players in major manufacturing contracts.

Unions also alleged the government had failed to create jobs and grossly ignored unions’ 12-point charter of demands besides aggressively pushing for fixed-term employment and amendment to the Trade Union Act, all of which is against the interest of the workers, according to the Economic Times.

Addressing the media after the 2-day strike, Amarjeet Kaur of AITUC said around eight states witnessed a complete shutdown, largely in the northeast, Kerala, Bihar and Goa. There were over 20 crore workers who had joined the strike.

The massive strike comes at an critical inflection point for India, which is one of the world’s fastest growing economies, yet isn’t generating enough jobs for its educated young populace.

A recent Washington Post article estimated that the number of people in India between age of 15 and 34 is expected to hit 480 million by the year 2021. They have higher literacy levels and are staying in school longer than any other previous generation. The surge of youths could be an immense opportunity for the country, if it can find a way to put them to work. But the employment trends in the country remain gloomy.

An analysis performed by Azim Premji University shows that unemployment between 2011 and 2016 in nearly all Indian states was rising. The jobless rates for younger people and those with higher education also increased sharply. For instance, for college graduates, it grew from 4.1% to 8.4%.

Ajit Ghose, an economist at the Institute for Human Development in Delhi, said that the country needs to generate jobs not just for the 6 million to 8 million new workforce entrants annually, but also for people like women who are working less than they would be if they could get jobs at a decent wage. The same economist notes that India has about 104 million “surplus” workers.

Expanding the labor market that much is a tall task for any government, not just India. Modi’s track record of job creation also remains somewhat of a mystery, as the country hasn’t offered nationwide employment data since 2016. The ministries of labor and statistics have conducted surveys of Indian households, but the results have not been made public.

Amit Basole, an economist at Azim Premji University, said: “It’s anybody’s guess whether we’ll see any employment statistics come out before the 2019 elections.”

What happens after this unprecedented show of force by India’s workers? Probably more of the same: unions threatened to follow last week’s strike with an indefinite strike if government does not heed to their demands. The general secretary for one of the labor unions, HMS, said the unions collectively decided to go on indefinite strike if the government does not respond to the “historic” strike this time.

If that happens, India’s record as one of the world’s fastest growing economies will soon be tarnished. As for the bigger picture, one where general popular – and populist – discontent around the globe is rapidly spreading and affecting not only developed nations (Trump, Brexit, most of Europe), but also the developing world.

Whether the unions will get what they want is unclear, but one thing is certain: India’s even more populous neighbor, China, is very closely following these restive worker developments and doing everything in its power to stop its own population from getting similar thoughts.

 END
SOUTH AFRICA
My goodness:  Racism in the opposite direction…South Africa creates 100 positions for black only doctors.  It failed to fill the posting
(courtesy zerohedge)

South Africa Created 100 “Blacks-Only” Doctor Positions… Fails To Fill Them

Is it racist?

South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal health department expanded its registrar program in 2019 from 314 to 414, but, according to a leaked memo, it aimed to fill the 100 new posts with only black candidates.

Departmental spokesperson Ncumisa Mafunda said historical redress was a government imperative and “the morally and socially right thing to do”.

“South Africa, including KwaZulu-Natal, remains an unequal society with limited opportunities for self-development for those who were historically oppressed.”

However, the quota was not met and Mafunda was forced to admit – shock, horror – non-Black African doctors…

“After difficulties were experienced in recruiting black African candidates for these posts, a deviation was sought from the accounting officer and, out of a total of 77 registrar posts, 21 posts will be offered to non-Black Africans.”

A spokesperson for Democratic Alliance – the leading opposition party to the ruling African National Congress – argued that any policy was “an aberration of our constitutional values and is racist.”

“Any form or attempt to redress the injustices of the past must ensure that we remain committed to what our constitution says… There must be no exclusion, especially based on the color of our skin.

As RT notes, the failed quota was not well received on Twitter, with many calling it openly racist and counter-intuitive.

“Let me understand – one should practice racism in order to eradicate racism? Sounds logical,” one sarcastic T

 

Race row in South Africa as health officials advertise for 100 new doctors – but white people are told not to apply https://dailym.ai/2D5twzj 

South African officials advertise 100 new doctors, but not for whites

The health department in the KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa, expanded its registrar programme for 2019 from 314 to 414, but aimed to fill the new posts with only black candidates

dailymail.co.uk

HΞCTOR DÈ LA FUÈNTÈ ® 🇳🇬@hecxtreme

Let me understand – one should practice racism in order to eradicate racism? Sounds logical 🙄

So that means I cannot apply? How is this not racist? Oh wait, Africans cannot be racist, only white people can be racist.

Racial tensions in South Africa have been growing as a result of proposed legislation that would seize land, without compensation, from white farmers. The proposal has been billed as necessary to help correct years of racial inequality in the country as a result of apartheid.

END

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1422 DOWN .0051 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES RED

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108;36  UP 0.122 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…DEADLY TO OUR YEN SHORTERS

GBP/USA 1.2847     DOWN   0.0026  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3271 DOWN .0007 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 51 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1422/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED  UP 34.58 POINTS OR 1.56% 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 531.96POINTS OR 2.02%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.55%  /EUROPEAN BOURSES RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED UP 195.59 POINTS OR .96%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 531.96 POINTS OR 2.02% 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 34.58 PTS OR 1.56%

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.66%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  UP 195.59 PTS OR .96%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1290.80

silver:$15.58

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.69% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.04 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 95.91 UP 30 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.66% DOWN 2    in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.01%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from MONDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.39% DOWN 3   IN basis point yield from MONDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.87 UP 3     POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 138 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.21%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.66% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1390 DOWN   .0083 or 83 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 108.62 UP  0.382 OR 20 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2736 DOWN .0138( POUND DOWN 138  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 4 basis points to 1.3274

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.7610-  ON SHORE  (YUAN DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7794(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.4523

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.01%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.71 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.07 UP 4  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.18 UP 57 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 40.00 OR 0.58%

German Dax : UP 35.88 POINTS OR 0.33%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 23.42 POINTS OR 0.49%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 31.50 POINTS OR 0.36%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 6.00 POINTS OR 0.03%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 51.81 12:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 60.19 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    67.00  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.01 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 1 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.4523 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.21 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :   50.61

 

BRENT :  59.10

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.70%…

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.05%/

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1469 ( UP   3 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.17 DOWN 0.240 (YEN UP 24 BASIS POINTS/..deadly to yen shorters

.

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 95.60 DOWN  7 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2868 UP 35 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.4483

the Russian rouble:  67.04 DOWN.15 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 15 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3276 DOWN 13 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.7681  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.7622 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.21%

 

The Dow closed UP 155.75 POINTS OR 0.65%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 117.92 POINTS OR 1.71%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  18.31 CLOSED down 0.76 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.778%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/

 

FROM 2.787

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Entire ‘Market’ Rallies On NFLX Price-Hike – Shrugs Off Dimon, May, & Grassley

The House of Commons to Theresa May…

 

China stimulus chatter prompted some excitement, lifting Chinese stocks from Monday losses…

 

European stocks opened excitedly (China), faded notably, then ramped after US opened to close in the green for the day (leaving DAX and CAC unch for the week)…

Quite a day in US markets…

Overnight headlines on China stimulus juiced futures to start which then faded as Europe opened…

JPM earnings disappointment (along with WFC) dragged stocks lower into the open but a Netflix price hike prompted panic buying which was then dumped as Senator Grassley confessed “little progress” in China trade talks… but by then the machines had made up their mind and we ramped to the day’s highs once again ahead of the Brexit vote. Stocks tanked as voting began and seemed triggered on a failed amendment as algos got confused. The Brexit deal was rejected (historically so), but stocks did not bounce back)…

Some serious buying program stepped in again after 3pmET (highest TICK in a week) after some selling on May’s defeat…

 

Nasdaq managed to get back above its 50DMA but none of the other majors did…

 

The S&P’s 61.8% retrace of the December drop and the 50DMA are in the same neighborhood here with strong trendline resistance also…

 

NFLX announced price3-hikes and investors panic bid the stock (and dragged all FANG and Nasdaq higher)…NFLX is up 32% tear-to-date!!!

 

JPM managed to mimic Citi’s moves yesterday as it ramped into the green during the day session after pre-market losses…

 

Citi is now up 18% year-to-date…

 

VIX was crushed again (to a 17 handle intraday) but credit did not play along)…

 

Modest shifts in Treasuries today with the long-end underperforming…

 

30Y Yields are back at their highest since

 

The dollar surged overnight and extended its gains into the Brexit vote – then as cable squeezed back higher, the dollar sank…

 

Yuan tumbled, extending losses after Chuck Grassley’s comments on China trade talk progress…

 

Cable slid all day long into the Brexit vote and bounced back into the green after as Corbyn called for a confidence vote (expected to lose) and May suggested a softer approach of reaching across the aisle (we suspect just simple over-positioning more likely for the squeeze)…

 

Cryptos were holding in before collapsing into the US equity close…

 

WTI ramped back to unchanged today as copper rallied on China stimulus, PMs limped a little lower as the dollar rallied…

 

Finally, we are worried – during his usual morning ramble today, CNBC’s Jim Cramer sounded a lot like 2007 Jim Cramer…

“JPMorgan is a one-off”…

“…we’re not going into recession”…

“…those who sold JPM at 97 are first class morons”

And that did not end well last time…

And this is probably nothing…

David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie

The NY Fed recently updated its recession-risk model – up to 21.4% in December, from 15.8% in November and 14.1% in October. The odds have doubled in the past year and haven’t been this high since August 2008.

END

market trading/

After being up in the early morning, Chuck Grassley admitted that there was little progress in the latest Chinese trade talks.  I have been telling you that there will be no deal struck between China and the uSA

(courtesy zero hedge)

Stocks Plunge After Grassley Admits “Little Progress” In China Trade Talks

Well that de-escalated quickly…

JPMorgan’s losses weighed on the indices but NFLX price-hike sparked an opening buying frenzy… but that is all gone now as Senator Chuck Grassley said thatUSTR Lighthizer saw little progress in last week’s China trade talks on structural issues or IP protections.

Stocks tanked…

Grassley says Lighthizer made the comments to him on Friday during a meeting about Soybean purchases.

 

end

market data/

This is a major surprise:  our crooked friends over at JPMorgan miss on the earnings and revenue .  It seems that the entire globe is having trouble

(courtesy zerohedge)

JPM Reports Huge Trading Miss As FICC Revenue Plunges To Lowest Since Financial Crisis

To anyone who carefully read yesterday’s dismal Citi earnings report, which was a major disappointment in virtually every way and especially in the bank’s FICC group, with the exception of Citi’s core lending business which traders decided to focus on and push Citi’s stock price 4% higher, today’s disappointing JPMorgan results should not come as a surprise.

Actually, JPMorgan Q4 results were even worse than Citi’s as they were a disappointment across the board, with both reported revenue of $26.1BN and “managed” revenue of $26.8BN missing consensus expectations of $26.9BN, while EPS of $1.98 was not only well below the $2.20 consensus, but was also the first JPM earnings miss in 15 quarters.

Commenting on the surprising miss, Wolfe Research’s Steven Chubak wrote that the results were “very un-JPMorgan-like” and flagged the broad-based core miss, noting that JPMorgan “has a strong track record of delivering strong revenue/earnings beats and these results appear rather unremarkable. The lone bright spot was strong NII/core loan growth, but optimism here will likely be tempered by muted NII guidance” for the first quarter, of “flat” versus the prior quarter. “We expect shares to underperform, with the rest of the group likely to trade in sympathy.”

Predictably, CEO Jamie Dimon, not used to posting disappointing results, quickly pivoted to politics, and said that “as we head into 2019, we urge our country’s leaders to strike a collaborative, constructive tone, which would reinforce already-strong consumer and business sentiment. Businesses, government and communities need to work together to solve problems and help strengthen the economy for the benefit of everyone.”

While JPM also posted a modest increase in Net Interest Income, which rose $1.2BN Y/Y to $14.5BN, noninterest income for the largest US bank declined $0.1BN to $12.3BN Y/Y and also declined $1.5BN Q/Q.

JPMorgan also reported 4Q compensation expenses $7.81 billion, right on top of the estimate $7.81 billion; while the 4Q provision for credit losses of $1.55 billion was surprisingly higher than the estimate $1.31 billion. More surprisingly, JPM said it built a $150 million reserve in the consumer unit – that was driven by loan growth. The question is why, i.e., what is JPM seeing that’s causing them to want to set aside more money to cover souring loans?

The bank also reported a firmwide net reserve build of $15mm – net build in Consumer of $54mm and net release in Wholesale of $39mm. Additionally, in the wholesale bank, there was a $161 million reserve build, the bank says that reflects the downgrade of “select” commercial and industrial customers.

But while the top and bottom-line miss were hardly what the market was expecting, what has slammed JPM stock this morning is the huge miss in the bank’s trading group, with 4Q FICC sales & trading revenue of just $1.86 billion, down $361MM from a year ago (and $1.0BN from Q3) and far below the estimated $2.29 billion. And while equity sales & trading revenue was in line, printing at $1.32 billion or right on top of the estimate $1.32 billion (if also down $278MM from Q3), the FICC plunge stole the show with the worst QFICC trading revenue since the financial crisis.

JPM’s FICC was so bad it was even worst than Citi’s (for the 2nd straight quarter):

The bank blamed “challenging market conditions “for the revenue decline in FICC, while highlighting emerging markets as the one bright spot in Q4.

Also worth a quick note: while equity trading revenue looked solid at first glance, a good chunk of it is due to losses JPM suffered tied to the margin loan on Steinhoff in late 2017.

Elsewhere in the bank’s investment bank group, 4Q investment banking revenue of $1.72 billion also missed estimates of $1.77 billion, virtually unchanged from a year ago.

Commenting on these disappointing trading results, JPM said that markets revenue of $3.2B was down 6% YoY, or down 11%YoY adjusted for the impact of tax reform and a loss on a margin loan in the prior year. Adjusted, Fixed Income Markets revenue was down 18% YoY, and Equity Markets revenue was up 2% YoY.

Surprisingly, JPM also reported a $243MM Credit Adjustments loss “reflecting higher funding spreads on derivatives.” We hope to learn more on what this was for during the earnings call.

Furthermore, within corporate and investment banking, JPM provided for $82 million in credit losses “largely driven by reserve builds for select client downgrades.”

Meanwhile, even as trading revenue tumbled, JPM reported Ibanking expense of $4.7B, up 3% YoY reflecting investments in the business and higher volume-related transaction costs, which however were offset by lower FDIC charges and lower performance-based compensation.

While the rest of the earnings were generally uneventful, it is worth noting (especially with Wells about to report) that JPM’s Q4 mortgage origination volume was $18.7BN in Q4, down 30% from $26.6BN in Q4 2017 as mortgage activity continues to collapse across the industry. KBW analyst Bose George cited mortgage volumes tumbling 24% quarter-over-quarter versus consensus expectations of a 14% decline, and said that though “the read-across to the industry is negative,” Wells Fargo results later will likely be “a bigger driver.”

It is worth noting that net charge-offs in the overall consumer unit were lower, but as Bloomberg notes, the bank says there’s a couple different directions happening within its different businesses. In home and auto lending, charge offs were down. But the card business saw higher net charge-offs.

And in another potential warning sign, spot in the consumer and community bank home lending numbers were also unexpectedly weak, with net revenue down 8 percent to $1.3 billion, “driven by lower net production revenue on margin compression and lower volumes.”

Indeed, JPMorgan’s commercial bank, traditionally a bedrock of stability, posted a 2% drop in revenue to $2.3 billion in Q4; JPM blamed the drop on the absence of a one-time benefit that the bank got with the passage of tax reform a year ago. That said, the unit did see higher net interest income and improved deposit margins. The offsetting silver lining: spending on the company’s consumer cards came in at $185.3 billion, a 10% increase from a year ago.

Looking ahead, JPM provided an outlook for Q1 2019, saying that net interest income will be “approximately flat” quarter over quarter and expects expenses to be up in the “mid-single digits” on a year-over-year basis.

As Bloomberg accurately cautions, “net interest income makes up about half of the company’s overall revenues, so if a big driver of revenue is expected to be flat while expenses are expected to be up — that might not bode well for increased profits.” This is especially troubling in light of JPM’s inability to boost its noninterest revenue, which has been flat int he past year.

Not surprisingly after what was easily the worst earnings report for JPM in over four years, the stock has tumbled.

And as we await Wells Fargo’s earnings due out shortly, here is JPM’s full earnings presentation.

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/397506054/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&show_recommendations=false&access_key=key-Kx0faYLFJAGnc3pUd2RC

END
Wells Fargo the leader in the USA mortgage field, just reported its worst number since the financial crisis began in 2008.  Another indicator that the USA economy is faltering.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Wells Just Reported The Worst Mortgage Number Since The Financial Crisis

When we reported Wells Fargo’s Q3 earnings back in October, we drew readers’ attention to one specific line of business, the one we have repeatedly dubbed the bank’s “bread and butter“, namely mortgage lending, and which as we then reported was “the biggest alarm” because “as a result of rising rates, Wells’ residential mortgage applications and pipelines both tumbled, sliding just shy of the post-crisis lows recorded in late 2013.”

Well, unfortunately for Wells, despite the sharp drop in yields in Q4 which many had expected would boost mortgage lending or at least refi activity for the bank that was until recently America’s largest mortgage lender, the decline in mortgage activity has continued,  because buried deep in its presentation accompanying otherwise unremarkable Q4 results (modest EPS best; sizable revenue miss), Wells just reported that its ‘bread and butter’ is once again missing, and in Q4 2018 the amount in the all-important Wells Fargo Mortgage Application pipeline shrank again, dropping to $18 billion, the lowest level since the financial crisis.

Meanwhile, Wells’ mortgage originations number, which usually trails the pipeline by 3-4 quarters, was just as bad, dropping a whopping $12BN sequentially from $46 billion to just $38 billion, and effectively tied for the lowest print since the financial crisis.  Putting this number in context, just six years ago, when the US housing market was actually solid, Wells was originating 4 times as many mortgages, or about $120 billion.

And since this number lags the mortgage applications, we expect it to continue posting fresh post-crisis lows in the coming quarter especially if rates resume their rise.

Going back to the headline numbers, here is a recap of the key metrics:

  • 4Q adj. EPS $1.21, est. $1.19
  • 4Q revenue $20.98 billion, Exp. $24.7BN
  • 4Q net interest income $12.64 billion
  • 4Q loans $953.11 billion vs. $942.3 billion q/q
  • 4Q mortgage non-interest income $467 million
  • 4Q residential mortgage originations $38 billion
  • 4Q margin on residential held-for-sale mortgage originations 0.89%
  • 4Q non- performing assets $6.95 billion
  • 4Q net charge-offs $721 million, estimate $736.8 million (BD)
  • 4Q total avg. deposits $1.27 trillion

There was more bad news for Wells. First, as the chart below shows, Noninterest Income has been a disaster and is only getting worse with virtually every revenue category posting Y/Y declines.

Things were not better on the interest income side where the bank’s Net Interest Margin managed ended its recent streak of increases, and was unchanged at 2.94% resulting in $12.644 billion in Net Interest Income, and missing expectations of an increase to 2.95%. This is what Wells said: “NIM of 2.94% stable LQ as a benefit from higher interest rates and favorable hedge ineffectiveness accounting results were offset by the impacts of all other balance sheet mix and lower variable income.

While Wells loss provisions declined modestly in Q4, its actual charge-offs jumped from $680MM to $721MM, the highest since Q1.

There was another problem facing Buffett’s favorite bank: while NIM failed to increase, deposits costs are rising fast, and in Q4, the bank was charged an average deposit cost of 0.55% on $914.3MM in interest-bearing deposits, double what its deposit costs were a year ago.

There was a silver lining however: amid concerns over the ongoing slide in the scandal-plagued bank’s deposits, which declined 3% or $40.1BN in Q3 Y/Y (down $2.3BN Q/Q) to $1.27 trillion, in Q4 Wells finally succeeded in getting a modest increase in deposits, which rose to $1.286 trillion, if still down 4% Y/Y. This was driven by growth in Wealth & Investment Management deposits driven by higher retail brokerage sweep deposits, “partially reflecting a change in our customers’ risk appetite, as well as higher private
banking deposits.” Offsetting this were declines in small business banking deposits, partially offset by growth in retail banking consumer deposits.

And some more good news: the recent ongoing shrinkage in the company’s balance sheet appears to have finally reversed, because one quarter after average loans declined from $944.3BN to $939.5BN, the lowest in years, and down $12.8 billion YoY, average loans outstanding increased fractionally to $946.3BN, up $6.8BN, or 1% Q/Q. This rebound was entirely due to commercial loans , which were up $7.7 billion LQ on higher commercial & industrial loans. Meanwhile, consumer loans continued to decline, and were down $835 million LQ as growth in nonconforming first mortgage loans and credit card loans was more than offset by declines in legacy consumer real estate portfolios including Pick-a-Pay and junior lien mortgage loans due to run-off and sales, as well as lower auto loans.

And finally, there was the chart showing the bank’s overall consumer loan trends: these reveal that the troubling broad decline in credit demand continues, as consumer loans were down a total of $13.7BN Y/Y across most product groups.

What these numbers reveal, is that the average US consumer can barely afford to take out a new mortgage even at a time when rates are once again sliding. It also means that if the Fed is truly intent in engineering a parallel shift in the curve of 2-3%, the US can kiss its domestic housing market goodbye.

Source: Wells Fargo Earnings Supplement

end

Another good indicator that the economy is coming to a screeching halt:  USA producer prices disappoint again, dropping .2% month/month

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Producer Prices Disappoint But Core Hovers At 7-Year Highs

After China’s dismal deflationary impulse (PPI/CPI slumping), US Producer Prices also disappointed, dropping 0.2% MoM – the biggest drop since Aug 2016.

Final Demand Producer Price growth YoY is at its weakest since August 2017…

However while Core PPI disappointed more, printing +2.7% YoY vs +3.0% YoY expectations (and fell 0.1% MoM against expectations of a 0.2% rise), it remains near its highest since 2011…

Finally, we note that Final Demand Consumption fell 0.2% MoM.

So disappointments but Core PPI still high – What Will Jay Powell Do?

end
Soft data, NY Manufacturing index slumps again in January
(courtesy zerohedge)

Empire State manufacturing index slumps again in January to lowest level in more than a year

Published: Jan 15, 2019 8:30 a.m. ET

Index now down a cumulative 18 points in last two months

The numbers: The Empire State manufacturing index fell 7.6 points to 3.9 in January, the lowest reading in more than a year, the New York Federal Reserve said Tuesday. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 12, according to a survey by Econoday. The headline index has fallen a cumulative 18 points since November.

Any reading above zero indicates improving conditions.

What happened: The new-orders index and shipments gauges increased at a slower pace in January. The new- orders index fell 9.9 points to 3.5, and the shipments index fell 2.4 points to 17.9. Unfilled orders and inventory indexes also fell. The prices-paid index moved lower for the second month, indicating some slowing in input price increase. Firms were less optimistic about the six-month outlook.

The big picture: Business sentiment has slumped due to the trade fight with China and the partial government shutdown. Many business surveys have weakened lately. On its face, the report suggests another decline in the national ISM manufacturing survey, which tumbled to a two- year low in December.

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

Los Angeles sees it’s first teacher strike in 30 years as 30,000 teachers were not in their classrooms and instead were picketing,  It will impact 480,000 students.

(courtesy zerohedge)

30,000 LA Teachers Strike For First Time In 30 Years

After 21 months of failed negotiation, 30,000 teachers from the Los Angeles Unified School District teachers weren’t in their classrooms – instead they were outside, picketing with parents and students in the first teacher strike in 30 years.

As CBS Local reports, the strike will impact 480,000 students served by LAUSD, the second largest school district in the nation.

UTLA’s demands include a 6.5 percent raise that would take effect all at once and a year sooner, “fully staffed” schools with more nurses, librarians and counselors added to the payrolls, along with pledges to reduce class sizes. Negotiations have also hinged on the debate between public schools and privatizing schools through charters. The union wants to ensure that privatization doesn’t cut public school funding.

LAUSD Superintendent Austin Beutner explained:

“Well, we’ve tried. We’ve said repeatedly we want to do everything we can to keep school open,” he said.

“We want many of the same things, we want to reduce class sizes, we want to make sure we have more counselors, nurses, and librarians in schools.”

California Gov. Gavin Newsom issued the following statement Monday morning regarding the strike:

This impasse is disrupting the lives of too many kids and their families. I strongly urge all parties to go back to the negotiating table and find an immediate path forward that puts kids back into classrooms and provides parents certainty.  Last week, I submitted a budget to the Legislature that would make the largest ever investment in K through 12 education and help pay down billions in school district pension debt. These historic investments will provide new resources for school districts like LAUSD, and it’s my hope this funding can help bring each side closer to a deal. ​

The district hired 400 substitute teachers and sent 2,000 credentialed administrators back into the classroom during the strike. The district also controversially loosed background requirements for parent volunteers.

“Here we are on a rainy day in the richest country in the world, in the richest state in the country, in a state that’s blue as it can be – and in a city rife with millionaires – where teachers have to go on strike to get the basics for our students,” UTLA President Alex Caputo-Pearl said.

end

this is very worrisome:  the magma under Yellowstone supervolcano is rising and an eruption of this size would devastate the planet;

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

Magma Under Yellowstone Supervolcano Is “Rising”, Scientists Warn An Eruption Would Devastate The Planet

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Could it be possible that a full-blown eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano is not too far away?

All over the world seismic activity has been increasing in recent years, and this process seems to have accelerated during the early days of 2019 In particular, quite a few once dormant volcanoes are springing to life again, and this has many concerned about what could potentially happen at Yellowstone.  Of course Yellowstone has never been “dormant”, but there have been new signs of life over the past six months.  Entirely new geysers have sprung out of the ground, Steamboat Geyser has been the most active that it has been in decades, and some geysers have even been shooting “debris and rocks” into the sky.  And now we are being told that “a 465-mile-long piece of molten rock” is “rising” directly under Yellowstone

SCIENTISTS are closely monitoring a 465-mile-long piece of molten rock rising below the Yellowstone caldera, a bombshell documentary has revealed.

The supervolcano, located in Yellowstone National Park, has erupted three times in history – 2.1 million years ago, 1.2 million years ago and 640,000 years ago. Volcanoes typically blow when molten rock, known as magma, rises to the surface following the Earth’s mantle melting due to tectonic plates shifting. However, geologists have revealed how Yellowstone’s magma chamber, which sits on top of the magma plume, is slowly rising each year.

Hopefully nothing major will happen at Yellowstone for a very long time.

But experts assure us that another full-blown eruption will take place one day, and when it does, it could potentially create a global “volcanic winter” which would make growing crops almost impossible and ultimately cause horrific global famines.  The following quote comes from Dr. Christopher Kilburn

“As a result of which, the amount of sunlight reaching the surface of the earth drops and, as a consequence of that, it will trigger what is called a volcanic winter in that the temperatures never get a chance to recover.

“So you go through winter, the ash veil prevents the sun from warming up the earth seasonally so you just get continued winters which might trigger, ultimately, extensive ice coverage.”

If Yellowstone were to erupt today, none of our lives would ever be the same again from that moment on.

We are talking about a disaster that is on a scale that most of us couldn’t even imagine, and it would instantly render most of the country completely uninhabitable.  The following is an extended excerpt from one of my previous articles about Yellowstone

I would like to try to describe for you what a full-blown eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano would mean for this country.

Hundreds of cubic miles of ash, rock and lava would be blasted into the atmosphere, and this would likely plunge much of the northern hemisphere into several days of complete darkness. Virtually everything within 100 miles of Yellowstone would be immediately killed, but a much more cruel fate would befall those that live in major cities outside of the immediate blast zone such as Salt Lake City and Denver.

Hot volcanic ash, rock and dust would rain down on those cities literally for weeks. In the end, it would be extremely difficult for anyone living in those communities to survive. In fact, it has been estimated that 90 percent of all people living within 600 miles of Yellowstone would be killed.

Experts project that such an eruption would dump a layer of volcanic ash that is at least 10 feet deep up to 1,000 miles away, and approximately two-thirds of the United States would suddenly become uninhabitable. The volcanic ash would severely contaminate most of our water supplies, and growing food in the middle of the country would become next to impossible.

In other words, it would be the end of our country as we know it today.

The rest of the planet, and this would especially be true for the northern hemisphere, would experience what is known as a “nuclear winter”. An extreme period of “global cooling” would take place, and temperatures around the world would fall by up to 20 degrees. Crops would fail all over the planet, and severe famine would sweep the globe.

In the end, billions could die.

Scientists are constantly monitoring Yellowstone for potential signs of an eruption, but the truth is that a major disaster of this magnitude would probably come with little or no warning.

It is undeniable that in recent months there have been signs of increased activity at Yellowstone.  That doesn’t mean that an eruption is imminent, but without a doubt it should be a cause for concern.

And this is especially true considering all of the shaking that we are seeing elsewhere around the globe.  Just within the past few days we have seen a magnitude 4.1 earthquake hit California and a magnitude 5.1 earthquake near Anchorage, Alaska.  The latter one definitely shook a lot of people up

Residents took to earthquake monitoring site EMSC to share their experiences. One said: “Long and big. Significant anxiety spike!

Another added: “That was scary. Hard quake.”

We are not even to the middle of January, and there have already been more than 100 significant earthquakes in Alaska so far this year.

That is not normal.

Our planet appears to be going through some major changes, and many believe that all of this seismic activity is an indication that things are about to become quite apocalyptic.  I am personally of the opinion that we are going to continue to see a rise in the number of earthquakes and that we are going to continue to see a rise in the number of volcanic eruptions.

As I have said before, the shell of our planet is cracked, and we are just floating on the pieces.  Now those pieces appear to be getting increasingly unstable, and that is going to affect us in ways that most people cannot even imagine right now.

end
Quite an op ed. Usually they do not allow anonymous op eds   However this one is from a senior Trump official and he hopes for a long shutdown to smoke out the resistance.
(courtesy zerohedge)

‘Senior Trump Official’: “I Hope A Long Shutdown Smokes Out The Resistance”

President Trump just retweeted the following ‘anonymous’ op-ed from The Daily Caller saying it is “worth the read.”

Donald Trump Jr.

@DonaldJTrumpJr

Worth the read.

I’m A Senior Trump Official, And I Hope A Long Shutdown Smokes Out The Resistance https://dailycaller.com/2019/01/14/smoke-out-resistance/  via @dailycaller

12.2K people are talking about this

The Daily Caller is taking the rare step of publishing this anonymous op-ed at the request of the author, a senior official in the Trump administration whose identity is known to us and whose career would be jeopardized by its disclosure. We believe publishing this essay anonymously is the only way to deliver an important perspective to our readers. We invite you to submit a question about the essay or our vetting process here.

As one of the senior officials working without a paycheck, a few words of advice for the president’s next move at shuttered government agencies: lock the doors, sell the furniture, and cut them down.

Federal employees are starting to feel the strain of the shutdown. I am one of them. But for the sake of our nation, I hope it lasts a very long time, till the government is changed and can never return to its previous form.

The lapse in appropriations is more than a battle over a wall. It is an opportunity to strip wasteful government agencies for good.

On an average day, roughly 15 percent of the employees around me are exceptional patriots serving their country. I wish I could give competitive salaries to them and no one else. But 80 percent feel no pressure to produce results. If they don’t feel like doing what they are told, they don’t.

Why would they? We can’t fire them. They avoid attention, plan their weekend, schedule vacation, their second job, their next position — some do this in the same position for more than a decade.

They do nothing that warrants punishment and nothing of external value. That is their workday: errands for the sake of errands — administering, refining, following and collaborating on process. “Process is your friend” is what delusional civil servants tell themselves. Even senior officials must gain approval from every rank across their department, other agencies and work units for basic administrative chores.

Process is what we serve, process keeps us safe, process is our core value. It takes a lot of people to maintain the process. Process provides jobs. In fact, there are process experts and certified process managers who protect the process. Then there are the 5 percent with moxie (career managers). At any given time they can change, clarify or add to the process — even to distort or block policy counsel for the president.

Saboteurs peddling opinion as research, tasking their staff on pet projects or pitching wasteful grants to their friends. Most of my career colleagues actively work against the president’s agenda. This means I typically spend about 15 percent of my time on the president’s agenda and 85 percent of my time trying to stop sabotage, and we have no power to get rid of them. Until the shutdown.

Due to the lack of funding, many federal agencies are now operating more effectively from the top down on a fraction of their workforce, with only select essential personnel serving national security tasks. One might think this is how government should function, but bureaucracies operate from the bottom up — a collective of self-generated ideas. Ideas become initiatives, formalize into offices, they seek funds from Congress and become bureaus or sub-agencies, and maybe one day grow to be their own independent agency, like ours. The nature of a big administrative bureaucracy is to grow to serve itself. I watch it and fight it daily.

When the agency is full, employees held liable for poor performance respond with threats, lawsuits, complaints and process in at least a dozen offices, taking years of mounting paperwork with no fear of accountability, extending their careers, while no real work is done. Do we succumb to such extortion? Yes. We pay them settlements, we waive bad reviews, and we promote them.

Many government agencies have adopted the position that more complaints are good because it shows inclusion in, you guessed it, the process. When complaints come, it is cheaper to pay them off than to hold public servants accountable. The result: People accused of serious offenses are not charged, and self-proclaimed victims are paid by you, the American taxpayer.

The message to federal supervisors is clear. Maintain the status quo, or face allegations. Many federal employees truly believe that doing tasks more efficiently and cutting out waste, by closing troubled programs instead of expanding them, “is morally wrong,” as one cried to me.

I get it. These are their pets. It is tough to put them down and let go, and many resist. This phenomenon was best summed up by a colleague who said, “The goal in government is to do nothing. If you try to get things done, that’s when you will run into trouble.”

But President Trump can end this abuse. Senior officials can reprioritize during an extended shutdown, focus on valuable results and weed out the saboteurs. We do not want most employees to return, because we are working better without them. Sure, we empathize with families making tough financial decisions, like mine, and just like private citizens who have to find other work and bring competitive value every day, while paying more than a third of their salary in federal taxes.

President Trump has created more jobs in the private sector than the furloughed federal workforce. Now that we are shut down, not only are we identifying and eliminating much of the sabotage and waste, but we are finally working on the president’s agenda.

President Trump does not need Congress to address the border emergency, and yes, it is an emergency. Billions upon billions of hard-earned tax dollars are still being dumped into foreign aid programs every year that do nothing for America’s interest or national security. The president does not need congressional funding to deconstruct abusive agencies who work against his agenda. This is a chance to effect real change, and his leverage grows stronger every day the shutdown lasts.

The president should add to his demands, including a vote on all of his political nominees in the Senate. Send the career appointees back. Many are in the 5 percent of saboteurs and resistance leaders.

A word of caution: To be a victory, this shutdown must be different than those of the past and should achieve lasting disruption with two major changes, or it will hurt the president.

The first thing we need out of this is better security, particularly at the southern border. Our founders envisioned a free market night watchman state, not the bungled bloated bureaucracy our government has become. But we have to keep the uniformed officers paid, which is an emergency. Ideally, continue a resolution to pay the essential employees only, if they are truly working on national security. Furloughed employees should find other work, never return and not be paid.

Secondly, we need savings for taxpayers. If this fight is merely rhetorical bickering with Nancy Pelosi, we all lose, especially the president. But if it proves that government is better when smaller, focusing only on essential functions that serve Americans, then President Trump will achieve something great that Reagan was only bold enough to dream.

The president’s instincts are right. Most Americans will not miss non-essential government functions. A referendum to end government plunder must happen. Wasteful government agencies are fighting for relevance but they will lose. Now is the time to deliver historic change by cutting them down forever.

The author is a senior official in the Trump administration.

END

this is huge!! The biggest hawk of the them all: Esther George, just threw in the towel and states that it is a good time to pause hikes in rates. It indicates that all Fed govs and presidents now believe that the economy is sinking.  I still think that Powell will blow up the system and continue to raise rates.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Fed’s Biggest Hawk Folds: George Says “Now May Be A Good Time To Pause Rate Hikes”

According to JPMorgan, Kansas City Fed president Ester George is the Fed’s most prominent (voting) hawk.

Which is why it is notable that moments ago George, the Fed’s biggest hawk, officially threw in the towel when during a speech for an event at Kansas City, George said that “it might be a good time to pause our interest rate normalization, study the incoming evidence and data, and verify our current location.”

Additionally George said that while “earlier in the normalization process, the FOMC provided forward guidance suggesting that monetary policy was accommodative,” she then added that “given current economic conditions, providing such explicit guidance now about the future path of policy rates would not be appropriate in my view”, confirming that the Fed will be especially Dow data-dependent.

She hedged her dovishness by saying that “it is possible that some additional rate increases will be appropriate.” But, she added “making that judgment is not urgent and should depend on a careful look at the data and gathering additional insight into where our destination is, how much further we need to go to reach it and how quickly we should get there.”

She was less deterministic on the ongoing balance-sheet rolloff, saying that “it is unclear whether, or how much, this roll off is further removing accommodation” even as she noted that she is “mindful that the effects of past policy actions have not yet fully played out, calling for patience in considering our policy actions.”

Yogi Chan@Yogi_Chan

remarkable lack of reaction after George comment. Obvs Powell/Clarida have doved it up, but this is the hawkish extreme of the FOMC dialing it down

See Yogi Chan’s other Tweets

Why is this notable? Because “failure to recognize these lags could lead to an overtightening of policy, a downturn in economic growth and an undershooting of our inflation objective.”

Of course, one can say that a decade of record liquidity injections and ZIRP means that the Fed is years behind the normalization process but since the Fed can barely weather a 20% drop in the S&P before halting rate hikes (at 2.25%), and is even contemplating halting the balance sheet shrinkage when only 10% of the Fed’s bloated assets have been unwound, it is painfully clear that Ben Bernanke was spot on when he said several years ago that there will be “no rate normalization in my lifetime.”

And yet while the capitulation by all the Fed’s hawks is surprising, what may be even more surprising is the lack of any jump in stocks after her statement, which perhaps is to be expected after both Powell and Clarida already made clear that the Fed is effectively done with the tightening cycle, and what comes next is a rate cut, one which inevitably launches the next recession.

SWAMP STORIES

Today, we have the hearings for the new AG. Barr states that there is no “witch hunt” against Trump but he is shocked by the texts of FBI agents. I think this is grandstanding..he will make his move once he is confirmed.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Barr Says No “Witch Hunt” Against Trump; Shocked By FBI Agents’ Texts About Trump

President Trump’s nominee for Attorney General, Bill Barr, told lawmakers during his confirmation hearings on Tuesday that he was “shocked” after reading anti-Trump text messages between former FBI employees Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, and that he had never heard of the FBI launching a counterintelligence investigation on a President based on a political decision, as was reported last Friday by the New York Times.

Zoe Tillman

@ZoeTillman

Graham begins by asking Barr is he’s familiar with the NYT story saying the FBI opened a counterintelligence investigation into Trump. Barr says yes. Graham asks if Barr will look into whether this happened. Barr says yes. Has Barr ever heard of such a thing before? Barr says no

Zoe Tillman

@ZoeTillman

Graham reads some of the Peter Strzok/Lisa Page texts criticizing Trump and about stopping him from being elected, and asks what Barr’s reaction was to them. Barr says he was “shocked.” Graham asks if he’ll look into what happened in 2016, and Barr says yes

When asked about the Special Counsel investigation headed up by his “best friend” Robert Mueller, Barr said “I don’t believe Mr. Mueller would be involved in a witch hunt,” and that “On my watch, Bob will be allowed to finish his work.”

NBC News

@NBCNews

AG nominee Barr on Special Counsel Mueller’s investigation: “On my watch, Bob will be allowed to finish his work.” http://nbcnews.to/2QNZOT2 

Embedded video

NBC News

@NBCNews

Barr: “I don’t believe Mr. Mueller would be involved in a witch hunt.”

Barr also said that the Trump administratin would not be allowed to “correct” the Mueller report before a public release, stating “That will not happen.”

NBC News

@NBCNews

AG nominee Barr describes “brief” June 2017 meeting with President Trump in which he says Trump asked: “How well do you know Bob Mueller?”

Barr replied: “Bob is a straight shooter and should be dealt with as such.”

Embedded video

NBC News

@NBCNews

Barr: “I believe the Russians interfered or attempted to interfere with the election, and I think we have to get to the bottom of it.”

Embedded video

NBC News

@NBCNews

AG nominee Barr describes “brief” June 2017 meeting with President Trump in which he says Trump asked: “How well do you know Bob Mueller?”

Barr replied: “Bob is a straight shooter and should be dealt with as such.”

32 people are talking about this

Last week Sen. Lindsey Graham (SC) met with Barr, and said that the AG nominee has a “high opinion” of Mueller, and that Barr told him that he and Mueller worked together when Barr was Bush’s attorney general between 1991 and 1993 when Mueller oversaw the DOJ’s criminal division. Graham added that the two men were “best friends” who have known each other for 20 years, and that their wives have attended Bible study together.

Mueller also attended the weddings of two of Barr’s daughters.

Graham listed a series of questions he put to Barr: “I asked Mr. Barr directly, ‘Do you think Mr. Mueller is on a witch hunt?’ He said no. ‘Do you think he would be fair to the president and the country as a whole?’ He said yes. ‘And do you see any reason for Mr. Mueller’s investigation to be stopped?’ He said no. ‘Do you see any reason for a termination based on cause?’ He said no. ‘Are you committed to making sure Mr. Mueller can finish his job?’ Yes.”

Watch the hearings live:

Developing…

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

[CA Gov.] Gavin Newsom budget calls for drinking water tax to help poor communities

https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article224239685.html

 

John Solomon: Rosenstein, DOJ exploring ways to more easily spy on journalists – For months now, the Department of Justice quietly has been working on a revision to its guidelines governing how, when and why prosecutors can obtain the records of journalists, particularly in leak cases… Multiple sources familiar with the ongoing DOJ review tell me that it has two main goals. The first is to lower the threshold that prosecutors must meet before requesting subpoenas for journalists’ records; the second is to eliminate the need to alert a media organization that Justice intends to issue a subpoena…  https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/425189-rosenstein-doj-exploring-ways-to-more-easily-spy-on-journalists#.XDy0Q2Kq2fE.twitter

 

ABC’s Jon Karl: People Close to Mueller Say His Report ‘Certain to Be Anti-Climactic’

https://www.mediaite.com/trump/abcs-jon-karl-people-close-to-mueller-say-his-report-certain-to-be-anti-climactic/

 

Missing: Key Documents about Alleged Misconduct by Robert Mueller’s Lead Prosecutor

Mueller led the FBI at the time of the Enron prosecutions and was surely well aware of Weissmann’s modus operandi when he brought him on board as his lead prosecutor. It is facts like these that lead many on the right to question the integrity of the special counsel probe.

https://thefederalist.com/2019/01/14/missing-key-documents-alleged-misconduct-robert-muellers-lead-prosecutor/

 

Turkey finishes construction of 764-km security wall on Syria border – as part of Turkey’s measures to increase border security and combat smuggling and illegal border crossings…

https://www.dailysabah.com/war-on-terror/2018/06/09/turkey-finishes-construction-of-764-km-security-wall-on-syria-border

end

I WILL SEE YOU ON WEDNESDAY
H
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One comment

  1. themagicbusguy · · Reply

    Thanks Harvey have a great night

    Like

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