GOLD: $1315.25 UP $0.30 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)
Silver: $15.85 DOWN 3 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)
Closing access prices:
Gold : 1315.20
silver: $15.85
For comex gold and silver:
FEBRUARY
NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR FEB CONTRACT: 319 NOTICE(S) FOR 31900 OZ (0.9922 tonnes
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR: 8808 NOTICES FOR 880,800 OZ (27.396 TONNES)
SILVER
FOR FEBRUARY
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
106 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 530,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month: 500 for 2,500,000
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3471: DOWN 1
Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3464 UP $2
end
XXXX
JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.
today 167/319
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,314.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/04/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 02/06/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 160
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 24
661 C JP MORGAN 71
661 H JP MORGAN 96
686 C INTL FCSTONE 1 3
690 C ABN AMRO 60 8
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 76 23
800 C MAREX SPEC 20 7
880 H CITIGROUP 86
905 C ADM 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL: 319 319
MONTH TO DATE: 8,808
Let us have a look at the data for today
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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2587 CONTRACTS FROM 206,692 UP TO 209,459 ACCOMPANYING YESTERDAY’S 4 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018 RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.
WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 22 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S. WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:
512 EFP’S FOR MARCH, 0 FOR APRIL, 0 FOR MAY, 0 FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 512 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 512 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 512 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 2.560 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANYING:
1.THE 4 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND
2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:
JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);
FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ
FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ
FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION OZ S
FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.
FOR NOV: A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND
21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.
5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.
AND NOW 2.410 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEBRUARY: 3975 CONTRACTS (FOR 4 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 3975 CONTRACTS) OR 19.875 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 994 CONTRACTS OR 4.968 MILLION OZ/DAY)
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 19.875 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 2.83% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)* JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.
ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 237.33 MILLION OZ.
JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS: 217.455. MILLION OZ.
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2587 WITH THE 4 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 512 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .
TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 3099 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
i.e 512 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 2587 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 4 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.88 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY
In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.047 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 150% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 106 NOTICE(S) FOR 530,000 OZ OF SILVER
IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.
AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.
ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:
- HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018 (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ ) FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT: A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ JANUARY AT 5.825 MILLION OZ.AND NOW FEB 2019: 2.410 MILLION OZ/
- HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018: 244,196 CONTRACTS, WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
- HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
- RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ
AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).
IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1776 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 474,513 WITH THE FALL IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A LOSS IN PRICE OF $2.65//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 10,064 CONTRACTS:
MARCH HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 185 CONTACTS APRIL 9879 CONTRACTS, DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 474,513. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8286 CONTRACTS: 1362 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 10,064 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN: 8286 CONTRACTS OR 828,600, OZ = 25.77 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $2.65.
YESTERDAY, WE HAD 6351 EFP’S ISSUED.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY : 23,123 CONTRACTS OR 2,312,300 OZ OR 71.92 TONNES (4 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5780 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 4 TRADING DAYS IN TONNES: 71.92 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 71.92/2550 x 100% TONNES = 2.82% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE: 4,703.26 TONNES
JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; 531.20 TONNES
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
Result: A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 1776 WITH THE LOSS IN PRICING ($2.65) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK FRIDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 10,064 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 10,064 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 8672 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
10,064 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 1776 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 25.77 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE LOSS OF $2.65 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX
we had: 319 notice(s) filed upon for 31,900 oz of gold at the comex.
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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD...
WITH GOLD UP $0.30 TODAY
THE FRAUD CONTINUES:
A MASSIVE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES
/GLD INVENTORY 813.29 TONNES
Inventory rests tonight: 813.29 tonnes.
TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD. IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY
SLV/
WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS IN PRICE TODAY:
NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV.
/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ.
end
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2587 CONTRACTS from 206,892 UP TO 209,459 AND MOVING CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 1 1/3 YEARS AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..
.
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
512 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MAY., 0 FOR DECEMBER AND AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 512 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2587 CONTRACTS TO THE 512 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 3099 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 15.49 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.. A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., 7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. 21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY..AND NOW 2.410 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY.
RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 4 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 512 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.
(report Harvey)
.
2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report
(Harvey)
2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED CHINESE NEW YEAR //Hang Sang CLOSED NEW YEAR /The Nikkei closed DOWN 39.32 PTS OR 0.19%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.76%
/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.7422 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 54.28 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.11 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN //.
ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.7422AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7651: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED
3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
i)North Korea//USA
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
By goodness what a loss: in its 4th quarter, the largest Japanese Pension fund: GPIF lost 136 billion usa dollars in the last 3 months of the year with the downfall in stocks.
( zerohedge)
3 C/ CHINA
i) CHINA
Huawei lawyers in Canada are fighting the USA’s “politically motivated” prosecution in order to win her freedom. Although the bar is low, she may win on this;
(courtesy zerohedge)
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
italy
Italy has one of the highest debts in Europe at 1.5 trillion euros or 1.7 trillion uSA dollars. An Italian debt crisis would take down the entire EU
( zerohedge)
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
i)Trump continues to show his allegiance to Israel as he shows his support to AIPAC
( Tom Luongo)
ii)Turkey
6. GLOBAL ISSUES
This is very good news: Trump is set to hire Dr David Malpass, a strong gold bug to lead the World Bank. Something must be up as he is also set to nominate Dr Judy Shelton to the Fed board
( zerohedge)
7. OIL ISSUES
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
i)VENEZUELA/USA
a)Trading in sovereign Venezuela bonds have dried to zero after the Trump sanctions
( zerohedge)
b)More trouble for Maduro has a flotilla of Venezuelan oil tankers are stranded off the Gulf of Mexico
9. PHYSICAL MARKETS
10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)
MARKET TRADING
ii)Market data/
Even though the January PMI manufacturing rose, the usually stronger USA service PMI plunged led by new orders
( zerohedge
a)Interesting: Trump and Powell met for an informal dinner and details emerge that Powell will maintain his dovish position on interest rate hikes/balance sheet roll-offs
( zerohedge)
b)Once the uSA experiences a downturn, it will be the huge BBB corporate debt group will will cause the implosion of uSA finances.
( John Rubino/DollarCollapse,com)
c)Why the left vilifies Tulsi Gabbard..as she reveals the bankruptcy of the American left
iv)SWAMP STORIES
a)The Trump Inaugural committee has been subpoenaed by New York Prosecutors (Democrats) to see if they misspent some of their $107 million dollars received in donations.
( zerohedge)
end
Let us head over to the comex:
THE NEXT NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER FEBRUARY IS THE VERY BIG AND ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 2327 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 138,000 CONTRACTS. AFTER MARCH, APRIL ROSE FROM ITS INITIAL 15 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS BY 2 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 17. AFTER APRIL, THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS MAY AND HERE THE OI ADVANCED BY 4395 CONTRACTS UP TO 39,193 CONTRACTS.
FOR COMPARISON SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH FEB 2018 VS FEB 2019
ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FEB 1/2018 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 670,000 OZ. AT THE MONTH’S CONCLUSION WE HAD 2.035 MILLION OZ STAND AS WE WITNESSED QUEUE JUMPING ON A REGULAR BASIS AT THE SILVER COMEX.
TODAY THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 2.050 MILLION OZ./
“Right” Trump and “Left” Ocasio-Cortez Will Join Forces And Debase The Dollar
– Intellectuals are laying the groundwork for “a tower of debt higher than any ever seen in world history”
– Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) and Donald J Trump (DJT) will soon be on the same side by coming to love massive debt, “$2-trillion federal deficits,” ultra loose monetary policies and the debasement of the dollar
– Beyond “good and evil” and moving to “dumb and dumber” monetary and economic policies may see dollar go the way of bolívars in Venezuela today
by Bill Bonner via Bonner & Partners
The intellectuals are laying the groundwork.
That is, they’re digging the foundations for an extraordinary structure – a tower of debt higher than any ever seen in world history.
The primary architect? Paul Krugman? Jerome Powell? Joseph Stiglitz?
Nope. Not an architect at all… but a politician.
Low-Interest People
It’s none other than Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), the ambitious young representative of New York’s 14th district, who has the shovel in her hands.
She may be the youngest woman ever elected to Congress, but she wasn’t born yesterday. And she may not know any more about economics than Donald J. Trump. But she knows a winning trend when she sees one.
And circa 2019, debt is becoming more popular than internet hook-ups.
Our dear readers generally approve when we poke fun at liberals like Ms. Ocasio-Cortez. But they hate it when we talk smack about the president. Many see the contest in Washington as a fight between good and evil. And they know what side they’re on!
We predict, however, that AOC and DJT will soon be on the same side. Beyond good and evil. Just dumb.
Both are already “low-interest kind of people.” And when the going gets tough, both will come to love Modern Monetary Theory, MMT… and $2-trillion federal deficits.
Silly Duffers
One of our dicta here at the Diary: People come to think what they have to think when they have to think it. Markets make opinions, in other words, not the other way around.
And markets are running into trouble. The trends that were so felicitous for so long – falling interest rates and rising stock prices – have now stalled, or even reversed.
The private sector faces a recession. Wall Street sees a bear market coming. In Washington, tax receipts will fall… as costs continue to rise.
How to keep the jig up? The politicians – left, right, and center – will come to see: debt isn’t so bad!
What were those previous generations thinking, they will wonder? Scrimping and saving, balancing budgets, making trade-offs – and for what? The silly duffers didn’t know any better.
The intellectual drift in favor of more government debt was put forward this week in the pages of the “pink paper,” the Financial Times:
A government can issue debt to pay for whatever it likes. It can pay to fight a war, to lower taxes for a preferred group, to soften the sharp edges of a recession. The United States has, in fact, issued debt to pay for all of these things. American politicians say that public debt crowds out private investment, that it’s unsustainable and will turn the country into Argentina. Or Greece. Or now, Venezuela. But regardless of what they say, what American politicians do is vote for more debt.
The FT is right about that. Year in, year out… boom or bust… Democrat or Republican – they voted for more debt. Modern Monetary Theory is at least realistic about it.
Noting that politicians are not shy about going into debt – without any horrible consequences; not recently, at any rate – the MMTers fantasize about a world in which government can get as much money as it pleases. Debt shouldn’t be a limitation.
A government issues money, they reason. Why does it have to borrow at all?
This seemed like such a breath of fresh monetary air that many economists and politicians practically hyperventilated. Here was a theory that seemed to validate a widespread practice – spending more than you earn. It was the feds’ money to begin with; why shouldn’t they spend as much as they want?
Ms. AOC is often posed the question directly. She favors free universities, free healthcare, free this, free that – “How can we afford it?” ask skeptics.
But she’s ready with the MMT answer: “How do we pay for anything?”
Touché!
“We” don’t pay for anything. The feds pay… with resources that – one way or another – they’ve squeezed out of us. In theory, it doesn’t matter how they get it. Debt. Taxes. Inflation. Take your pick.
Chartalist System
What really counts is the total amount of resources the feds take. The more they squander, the less is left for real output and growth. And the practical advantage of debt over inflation (just printing money) is that it limits the take.
Borrowed money has a cost. The more the feds borrow, the higher interest rates go. Then, the economy slumps… tax revenues decline… and the feds are worse off than ever.
Then, of course, the feds finagle a fix, getting the central bank – the Fed – to buy up their debt, so interest rates don’t go up. This ends up being very close to a pure MMT or Chartalist system, where the feds are, in effect, printing the money to pay for their quack programs.
But the central insight of MMT is deeply flawed. It confuses the feds’ “money” with real money.
MMT admits that their spending is limited only by the resources available in the real world. But that is why we have real money in the first place – to make sure the limits are respected.
Fake money only works for as long as it mimics real money; that is, only so long as it respects the limits of real resources. After all, a car is not a car because the feds say it’s a car; it’s a car because it takes you where you want to go.
And as soon as the feds’ money stops taking you where you want to go – like Zim dollars in Zimbabwe in 2006 or bolívars in Venezuela today – MMT falls apart. The feds could “print” all they wanted; it wouldn’t buy them a ham sandwich.
Fortunately, the U.S. dollar still has some miles left on it. But with politicians like AOC and DJT at the wheel, it’s just a matter of time before the limits come off… and it ends up in a ditch.
Sign up for only daily newsletter featuring the unique ideas of bestselling financial author Bill Bonner. From Wall Street to Washington, Bill leaves no idol un-busted and no stone unturned…
News and Commentary
Gold posts second loss in a row, but analysts see higher prices ahead (MarketWatch.com)
Gold slips as dollar gains as China closed for Lunar New Year (Reuters.com)
Major European nations recognize Guaido as Venezuela president (Reuters.com)
Asahi to emerge as largest gold, silver refiner in US after Republic acquisition (SPGlobal.com)
Why Italy’s Debts Are Europe’s Big Problem. Source: Bloomberg
Why Italy’s Debts Are Europe’s Big Problem (Bloomberg.com)
World Bank And IMF Are In Crisis. It’s Time To Push A Radical New Vision (TheGuardian.com)
Rickards: “The Plan To Ditch King Dollar” (DailyReckoning.com)
Turtles All the Way Down – Hussman (HussmanFunds.com)
New-Age Precious Metals Investor: The Coming Pension Fund Disaster (SRSRoccoReport.com)
Can the U.S. and China Avoid War? Kyle Bass Interview (RealVision.com)
Listen on iTunes,Blubrry & SoundCloud & watch on YouTube above
Gold Prices (LBMA PM)
04 Feb: USD 1,311.00, GBP 1004.36 & EUR 1,145.55 per ounce
01 Feb: USD 1,320.75, GBP 1008.54 & EUR 1,150.83 per ounce
31 Jan: USD 1,322.50, GBP 1006.95 & EUR 1,152.16 per ounce
30 Jan: USD 1,312.95, GBP 1002.04 & EUR 1,148.44 per ounce
29 Jan: USD 1,308.35, GBP 994.48 & EUR 1,143.24 per ounce
28 Jan: USD 1,301.00, GBP 987.98 & EUR 1,139.81 per ounce
25 Jan: USD 1,282.95, GBP 981.33 & EUR 1,132.08 per ounce
Silver Prices (LBMA)
04 Feb: USD 15.74, GBP 12.05 & EUR 13.75 per ounce
01 Feb: USD 16.01, GBP 12.26 & EUR 13.96 per ounce
31 Jan: USD 16.07, GBP 12.24 & EUR 13.99 per ounce
30 Jan: USD 15.91, GBP 12.15 & EUR 13.92 per ounce
29 Jan: USD 15.85, GBP 12.05 & EUR 13.87 per ounce
28 Jan: USD 15.68, GBP 11.93 & EUR 13.75 per ounce
25 Jan: USD 15.37, GBP 11.74 & EUR 13.55 per ounce
Recent Market Updates
– 7 Financial Truths In An Uncertain 2019
– Central Banks Buy More Gold In 2018 Than Any Year Since 1967
– Gold Breaks Out of Range After Dovish Fed – Further 1% Gain to $1,321/oz
– U.S.-China War May Be “Just A Shot Away”
– Buy Bitcoin or Gold? Bitcoin Buyers Investing In Gold In 2019
– Gold Consolidates Above $1,300 After 1.2% Gain Last Week
– Gold Bullion Will Protect From Politicians, Brexit and Increasing Market Volatility In 2019
– Brexit – The Pin That Bursts London Property Bubble
– Davos: David Attenborough Warns We Are Damaging The World ‘Beyond Repair’
– Gold May Return 25% In 2019 Given Brexit, Trump and Other Risks – IG TV Interview GoldCore
– Brexit, EU, Germany, China and Yellow Vests In 2019 – Something Wicked This Way Comes
– Three Reasons Gold May Embark On An Extended Rally
– Political Turmoil in UK & US Sees Gold Hit 2 Week High
5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
Trump continues to show his allegiance to Israel as he shows his support to AIPAC
(courtesy Tom Luongo)
Trump Kneels Again Before AIPAC
We know the pull of the Israeli lobby is strong in D.C. We also know that Donald Trump’s foreign policy has centered around Israel’s security.
But what we didn’t know for certain was just how far Trump is led around by the whatever AIPAC wants. Until Sunday morning…
However Trump’s invoking Iranian influence as a rationale for staying further contradicts his prior December statement that the defeat of ISIS was “the only reason” he was in Syria in the first place.
MARGARET BRENNAN:How many troops are still in Syria? When are they coming home?
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: 2,000 troops.
MARGARET BRENNAN: When are they coming home?
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: They’re starting to, as we gain the remainder, the final remainder of the caliphate of the area, they’ll be going to our base in Iraq, and ultimately some will be coming home. But we’re going to be there and we’re going to be staying—
MARGARET BRENNAN: So that’s a matter of months?
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: We have to protect Israel. We have to protect other things that we have. But we’re- yeah, they’ll be coming back in a matter of time. Look, we’re protecting the world. We’re spending more money than anybody’s ever spent in history, by a lot. We spent, over the last five years, close to 50 billion dollars a year in Afghanistan. That’s more than most countries spend for everything including education, medical, and everything else, other than a few countries.
It seems that the panic in D.C. over Trump’s desire to pull out of Syria got everyone activated. Nothing unites the Beltway cocktail circuit and lobbying myrmidons like the threat of peace in the Middle East.
With $4 billion in aid every year and a few hundred nukes the idea that we have to occupy a border crossing between Iraq, Jordan and Syria to protect Israel against Iranian weapons is frankly, ludicrous.
Iran is a bigger threat to Israel now because after seven years of war in Syria, begun by a blatantly aggressive move by a U.S. coalition to oust President Assad, is simply blowback by another name.
Clinton and Obama put together the dream team coalition to destroy Syria — U.K., France, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Turkey — by backing various head-chopping animals to wreak havoc and overthrow the government.
It failed when it caused the counter-move by Russia, China, Iran and Hezbollah. After the British parliament heroically stopped David Cameron from joining Obama’s coalition to invade in 2013 the plan was doomed to fail.
Putin stepped in, brokered a ceasefire and the removal of Assad’s chemical weapons. But we didn’t stop. To believe the U.S. media ISIS is one of the few known examples of parthenogenesis, springing up out of nowhere to take over vast stretches of the Levant.
But that was the Achilles’ heel of the entire operation. Because Putin’s military intervention made it easy to expose the whole rotten mess, including Israel’s giving aid and comfort in the Golan Heights to ISIS, while we dropped bombs in the desert because we couldn’t find them.
We can read license plates from space but we can’t find the Toyota Hilux its mounted on?
Trump inherited this mess but he’s done nothing substantial to improve it. All he’s done is empower Israel to be even more brazen in attacking Syria, killing and displacing Syrian civilians while claiming attacks on Iranian weapons depots.
It’s all nonsense and Trump looked like he’d had enough of it.
Trump’s Chaotic Mess
On the other hand, it is refreshing to see some honesty in our public officials. We’re overthrowing Maduro in Venezuela for oil and we’re staying in Syria for Israel.
Full Stop.
Maybe this is what Trump meant when he talked briefly about not lying to the American people. Or maybe that was just another ‘big ask’ from someone that has become little more than Barack Obama in bronzer.
Trump went for broke in December on two major planks of his campaign — The Wall and the Middle East. I voted for him on the basis of criticizing our foreign policy and wanted the troops out of central Asia.
The Swamp is filled by the runoff from the overseas Empire.
He shutdown the government for more than a month while simultaneously going to the mat with his cabinet over Syria. And since then he’s done nothing but backtrack and step down expectations.
In doing this he was always vulnerable to a counter-attack on both fronts. He made Syria vulnerable because he has to get a deal done on the wall in the next two weeks or he’s back to square one.
It seems Thursday’s Senate rebuke of Trump’s plans in Syria was followed up by some weekend arm-twisting of the president. Trump made another one of his ‘big asks’ Art-of-the-deal style, only to be ground down to an ineffectual reorganizing of deck chairs on the foreign policy Titanic.
Don’t think that Senate rebuke wasn’t part of the Wall negotiations, because it was.
McConnell and Rubio were saying loud and clear, “If you want our support on the Wall you have to give up pulling out of Syria.”
This is why I wasn’t convinced by Trump’s tweets (here and here) after that vote on Friday, saying “Certain people must get smart!” It looks like Trump is the one who has to smarten up and realize that he cannot attack on every front all the time and think the chaos is his friend.
Israeli Overreach
I never thought for a second that Trump was pulling the troops out of Iraq or that most of the force we have in Syria wouldn’t be repositioned there. I knew that Trump was looking for a way to keep a campaign promise with his Syria announcement while not truly changing anything.
He’s been AIPAC’s best friend since he entered office. But, I also thought that the dangerous game played by Israel, France and the U.K. which led to the shooting down of the Russian IL-20 reconnaissance plane woke him up to the reality that Bibi Netanyahu will do just about anything to provoke a wider war.
I know that Putin has had enough. That’s why he sent S-300’s to Syria and won’t take Bibi’s phone calls.
What happened was obvious. France that shot down the plane, the U.K. were the coordinators and Israel the air cover needed to sell a lie about Syria antiquated air defense shooting down the Russian plane.
Putin smartly went along with this narrative because it stopped a wider conflict and led to the current relative peace we have now.
Russia, and Putin, did the one thing that makes this whole thing look like a frame job, it accepted the narrative of Israeli malfeasance in the interest of stopping a wider conflict by accusing and/or attacking a NATO member, France.
Flores (at Fort-Russ.com) makes the salient point that the S-200 friendly fire scenario is highly unlikely. That, in fact, France shot down the plane, was prepared to accept blame (which it did by preemptively denying it was involved) and destroy what was left of Russian/French relations.
Now Russia can use the excuse of Israeli betrayal as justification for upgrading Syria’s air defenses. Citing the very thing that caused the tragic death of their soldiers, antiquated air defense systems which didn’t properly identify friend from foe.
This is why I think Trump fired Nikki Haley from her post as U.N. Ambassador. She was involved in some way.
And it’s also why he pushed so hard to pull our troops out of Syria three months later, after the Russians had delivered and were spinning up S-300’s stabilizing the situation near Israel.
The board state is pretty clear near Damascus. Israel has lost its safe zone of flying F-16’s over Lebanon to attack Damascus.
This gave Trump room to end the balkanization efforts of Bolton et.al. east of the Euphrates river. The Kurds will make a deal with Damascus. While Trump tacitly admits President Erdogan in Turkey isn’t going to lift one finger to help the U.S. provoke regime change in Iran.
Security After Withdrawal
Trump’s analysis of this is correct. It is his spirit that is weak. The realities in D.C. are that it can’t happen since Israel is now calling in all of its markers to prevent this from occurring.
Netanyahu needs this from Trump to assist his re-election in a few weeks. But this is incredibly short-sighted for all involved. Israel is not made safer in the long run by constantly running behind the U.S.’s skirts and crying “Get ‘im Don!”
One of the undercurrents of Trump’s election was Israel First fatigue that is more pervasive in the American electorate than anyone wants to admit. We’re tired of fighting all across central Asia for undefined goals. Israel is part of that fatigue. And no amount of screaming “Anti-Semite!” will quell it.
Without the threat of ISIS, transitioning then to “Iran, Iran the Bogeyman for Israel” isn’t going to play well in 2020.
It’s the best Alt-Right recruiting tool there is, sadly. And it does no one any good to keep the conflict locked along these lines when there is the real threat of a wider conflict occurring.
Iran will leave Syria when the U.S. does. Since Trump has made it clear that we aren’t leaving because Israel doesn’t want us to, nothing will change. But, every day our position grows weaker while opposition to it grows stronger.
Trump is right to talk about the money. $50 billion in Afghanistan a year. For what? Neocon dreams of overthrowing Putin. Playing outdated games of Risk with opponents who are rapidly changing the rules of the game and raising the costs even higher.
The war of attrition playing out in Syria continues and weakens everyone who keeps playing it out to the bitter end. Whether Trump is the architect of this or not is irrelevant. It’s obvious he’s powerless to stop it.
* * *
Erdogan Moves To Seize Turkey’s Largest Bank
With the Turkish Lira surging in recent months, largely on the back of recent dollar weakness coupled with lack of Turkish economic horror stories, it had been a while since we got a reminder that Turkey is now a truly authoritarian state in which president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the country’s de facto dictator, having been granted virtually unlimited executive powers last year.
On Tuesday, we got just such a reminder, when Erdogan escalated his campaign to seize the nation’s largest listed lender, Turkiye Is Bankasi, when he urged Turkey’s puppet parliament to vote for the takeover according to Bloomberg.
Shares of the bank, which is partially owned by Turkey’s main opposition party, tumbled after Erdogan told his ruling AK party’s lawmakers in Ankara on Tuesday that “Isbank will become the property of the Treasury, with the permission of God.”
While the opposition CHP party, which has been repeatedly targeted by Erdogan in the past, doesn’t get any dividends from its 28% stake in Isbank, Erdogan accuses it of “exploiting” the memory Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the father of modern Turkey, who bequeathed Isbank shares to the party he created in his will. Erdogan, always eager to nationalize any valuable asset so it can then become part of the Erdogan family empire, has contended that what once belonged to the nation’s founder shouldn’t be owned by a political faction, especially not one which opposes him.
Naturally, any ad hoc nationalization by Erdogan of a major financial institution would lead to market chaos and flight of foreigners from the emerging market; predictably Isbank has said in the past that any effort to nationalize it would amount to a financial crime. Meanwhile, CHP has so far resisted Erdogan’s demands to give up its equity stake and its four seats on the bank’s board although it may have no choice but to comply with the “parliament’s” wishes.
And while the AK party lacks the parliamentary majority needed to unilaterally change the laws on the bank’s ownership – for now – according to Bloomberg Erdogan suggested its junior partner in the assembly, the nationalist MHP, would support his legislative efforts to enable the unprecedented takeover.
Isbank shares plunged as much as 6% following Erdogan’s comments and were trading 1.2% lower as of 1 p.m. in Istanbul. The Turkish lira, which inexplicably continues to surge despite Turkey’s ongoing episode of rampant inflation, also trimmed gains, trading 0.2% higher at 5.2067 per dollar.
To be sure, there is a reason why the market may be taking Erdogan’s threats as hollow, which may reflect an effort to energize his base before municipal elections in March: it’s not the first time he has vowed to take over Isbank. In fact, his aides first began floating the idea of nationalizing Isbank in 2015. While so far the bank has resisted Erdogan’s nationalization push, all it takes is for one time to be different.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES
This is very good news: Trump is set to hire Dr David Malpass, a strong gold bug to lead the World Bank. Something must be up as he is also set to nominate Dr Judy Shelton to the Fed board
(courtesy zerohedge)
Trump Nominates Former Bear Stearns Chief Economist To Lead World Bank
In a report that elicited chuckles from some corners of Wall Street, the Washington Post reported late Monday that President Trump planned to nominate Treasury Undersecretary for International Affairs David Malpass – who, in addition to serving as the chief economist at Bear Stearns as the investment bank spiraled into bankruptcy, also worked in the Reagan and Bush the elder administrations – to be the next president of the World Bank.
Due to a decades-old agreement with European nations, Washington picks the head of the World Bank while Europe chooses the head of the IMF. Since 1944, the World Bank’s 12-member board has never refused to confirm Washington’s pick, meaning that Malpass’s confirmation is virtually assured – barring a unforeseen and unprecedented break with unprecedented.
One “person close to Malpass” told WaPo that he would seek to be a “constructive” World Bank president, though he declined to comment on Malpass’s agenda beyond saying he would seek to protect US interests and raise incomes in developing nations.
Of course, given his reputation as a skeptic of global institutions like the World Bank, speculation about Malpass’s plans for the bank will almost certainly be the subject of widespread speculation. Since joining the Trump Administration, Malpass has offered some scathing criticism of the institution, once describing the bank as part of a “giant sprawl” of international organizations that create “mountains of debt without solving problems.” He has also accused the World Bank of “mission creep” and of prioritizing its own growth over that of the recipients of its funds. Echoing Trump’s push to cut costs at the UN, the Economist described Malpass as a “cost cutting crusader”. Indeed, Malpass is a skeptic of the very organization that he is being tasked to lead. A noted China hawk, Malpass has been heavily involved with the US-China trade talks, and has also been critical of the World Bank’s loans to Beijing.
At least one former Wall Street economist pointed out the irony in appointing Malpass to run a global organization tasked with fostering economic growth and stability, particularly in the emerging world, after the Treasury official failed to foresee the impending demise of his former employer.
The current World Bank president, Jim Yong Kim, stepped down on Feb. 1 after more than six years in the post to take a job at a firm focused on infrastructure development in foreign countries. The official announcement of Malpass’s candidacy is expected on Wednesday.
7 OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKETS
Venezuela
Trading in sovereign Venezuela bonds have dried to zero after the Trump sanctions
(courtesy zerohedge)
Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1422 DOWN .0013 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES GREEN
USA/JAPAN YEN 109.95 DOWN 0.023 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…DEADLY TO OUR YEN SHORTERS
GBP/USA 1.3009 DOWN 0.0017 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED
USA/CAN 1.3117 UP .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)
Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 7 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1447/ Last night Shanghai composite closed /OFF FOR THE WEEK/CHINESE NEW YEAR
//Hang Sang CLOSED CHINESE NEW YEAR
/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.76% /EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN
The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 39.32 POINTS OR 0.19%
Trading from Europe and Asia
1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED CHINESE NEW YEAR
/SHANGHAI CLOSED CHINESE NEW YEAR
Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.76%
Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 39.32 PTS OR 0.19%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1313.60
silver:$15.84
Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.73% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/
The 30 yr bond yield 3.07 UP 1 IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 95.93 UP 7 CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.
This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING
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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.66% UP 0 in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY/
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.01% DOWN 0 BASIS POINTS from MONDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.26% UP 2 IN basis point yield from MONDAY
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.79 UP 6 POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 153 points HIGHER than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.17% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//
THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.62% AND NOW ABOVE THE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1405 DOWN .0030 or 30 basis points
USA/Japan: 109.98 UP 0.015 OR 2 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2946 DOWN.0081( POUND DOWN 81 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar DOWN 16 basis points to 1.3132
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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed HOLIDAY AT 6.7422 0N SHORE (YUAN DOWN)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: 6.7685( YUAN DOWN)
TURKISH LIRA: 5.2012
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.01%
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.70 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.03 DOWN 4 in basis points on the day /
THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS
Your closing USA dollar index, 96.07 UP 22 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 143.24 OR 2.04%
German Dax : UP 191.40 POINTS OR 1.71%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 83.15 POINTS OR 1.66%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 116.80 POINTS OR 1.30%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 227.89 POINTS OR 1.16%
WTI Oil price; 53.98 12:00 pm;
Brent Oil: 62.24 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN / ROUBLE CROSS: 65.58 THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.01 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 1 BASIS PTS)
TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.17 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST
END
This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM
Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 53.70
BRENT : 61.67
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.70..
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.03
EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1408 ( DOWN 27 BASIS POINTS)
USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.98 UP.001 (YEN DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS/..
.
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.07 UP 22 cent(s)/
The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.2953 DOWN 74 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY
the Turkish lira close: 5.2005
the Russian rouble 65.62: DOWN .04 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 4 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar: 1.3134 UP 19 BASIS pts
USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.7422 (ONSHORE)
USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7638 (OFFSHORE)
German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.17%
The Dow closed UP 172.15 POINTS OR 0.68%
NASDAQ closed up 54.55 POINTS OR 0.74%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.57 CLOSED DOWN 0.16
LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.734% .LIBOR RATES ARE FALLING/
FROM 2.732
And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY
Stocks Continue To Soar But Bonds, Bullion, & The Greenback Ain’t Buying It
Everything is awesome, right? (just don’t pay attention to bonds, gold, or the dollar)…
Well it had to be higher on SOTU day…
Chinese equity markets remain closed for the lunar new year holiday but yuan surged overnight – erasing the plunge from the day before…
European equity markets soared, playing catch up to US markets’ ramp and continued into the close (wth FTSE 100 outperforming)…
US equities rampaged higher at the cash open once again, but dipped notably shortly after EU closed.
On the cash side, Nasdaq outperformed thanks to a rebound in GOOGL…
Today was a double-rainbow day – two short-squeezes for the price of one…
The S&P was unable to break its 200DMA…
US Equity market breadth is extreme to say the least and stocks are “overbought”…
Nasdaq is the most overbought since its highs in August…
But it seems the Buy-The-Afternoon-Dip trade just won’t stop…
FANG Stocks soared again but some are wondering if a head-and-shoulders is forming…
VIX collapse continues (back to a 15 handle), likewise, credit spread compression charges on…
Despite the equity market gains, bonds were also bid today…
Notably 10Y was bid off the pre-Powell highs…
The dollar index lifted modestly, but remains stuck around the pre-FOMC highs range…
Cryptos went nowhere fast…
Copper continues to rise but crude tumbled for the 2nd day in a row…PMs flatlined.
Copper is now at its highest since late November…
Gold bounced after erasing its post-Powell gains…
After trading tick for tick, WTI and Stocks decoupled today…
And before we leave commodities, we note the collapse in the Baltic Dry Index (global trade?) is now the worst start to a year since 2012…
Finally, this is the best start to a year for the S&P 500 since 1987 and worst start for Earnings expectations in three years…
And don’t forget – The stock market is up 100% of the time on the day after Trump and Powell share a steak
market trading/
MARKET DATA
Even though the January PMI manufacturing rose, the usually stronger USA service PMI plunged led by new orders
(courtesy zerohedge)
US Services Stumble To 13-Month Lows As New Orders Plunge
After US Manufacturing’s PMI bucked the global slowdown trend, rebounding in January, US Services data was also expected to likewise stabilize against weakness worldwide, but it didn’t.
Markit’s US Services PMI printed 54.2, down from 54.4 – the lowest since September – weighed down by the joint-weakest rise in new business since Oct 2017, the rate of new order growth matches December’s recent lows, and activity expansion is the softest in four months.
ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Index disappointed, dropping to 56.7 (57.1 exp) from an upwardly revised 58.0 as new orders dropped sharply in January. ISM Services has not been lower since Dec 2017
So manufacturing upticked in January and services slumped according to both surveys.
The downshift in services expansion is in sync with forecasts for economic growth to moderate this year as the tax-cut boost fades and the trade war weighs on business plans.
The index of non-manufacturing business activity declined to 59.7from 61.2 the prior month, and the gauge of new orders fell to 57.7from 62.7, the steepest drop since August 2016.
And New Export Orders crashed by the 3rd biggest amount since Lehman…
Commenting on the PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:
“The robust economic growth signalled by the US PMI surveys at the start of the year sits in stark contrast to the near-stalling of growth seen in Europe, China and Japan. At current levels, the surveys are consistent with annualised GDP growth of around 2.5% at the start of the year.
“Jobs growth remained buoyant as business optimism perked up to its highest since October. Backlogs of work are meanwhile building up, in part because firms struggled to meet demand, which has in turn allowed sellers to continue to push prices higher.
“However, although still robust, the rates of economic growth, job creation and inflation signalled by the PMI surveys have cooled since peaks seen last year. This possibly reflects some impact from the government shutdown, though scant evidence of such was seen in the anecdotal evidence from the surveys, but also reflects an easing of demand growth, notably from abroad. Foreign sales of goods and services barely rose in January, contrasting with signs of faster growth of domestic orders. “
Just remember, it’s never a decoupling, it’s always just a lag.
USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST
Interesting: Trump and Powell met for an informal dinner and details emerge that Powell will maintain his dovish position on interest rate hikes/balance sheet roll-offs
(courtesy zerohedge)
SWAMP STORIES
The Trump Inaugural committee has been subpoenaed by New York Prosecutors (Democrats) to see if they misspent some of their $107 million dollars received in donations.
(courtesy zerohedge)
Democratic contenders hoping to run on soaking the rich
https://apnews.com/0f5e1bdd963b4b7c9b4d4b2d6c190b57
Ocasio-Cortez Says NFL Owners Who Don’t Hire Kaepernick Would Pay Her Proposed 70% Tax
Cuomo announces income tax revenues have dropped by $2.3B https://nyp.st/2D9Z1qt
[Increasing taxes to appease the socialist mob will accelerate flight & lower tax revenue.]
The Fed: Statement on Chair Powell’s and Vice Chair Clarida’s meeting with the President and Treasury Secretary[‘informal’ dinner at WH last night]
At the President’s invitation, Chair Powell and Vice Chair Clarida joined the President and the Treasury Secretary for an informal dinner tonight in the White House residence, to discuss recent economic developments and the outlook for growth, employment and inflation.
Chair Powell’s comments in this setting were consistent with his remarks at his press conference of last week. He did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy, except to stress that the path of policy will depend entirely on incoming economic information and what that means for the outlook.
Finally, Chair Powell said that he and his colleagues on the FOMC will set monetary policy in order to support maximum employment and stable prices and will make those decisions based solely on careful, objective and non-political analysis. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20190204a.htm
Virginia’s lieutenant governor Justin Fairfax denies sexual assault allegation that has surfaced as he’s poised to take over if disgraced governor Ralph Northam steps down
Fairfax Admits Encounter with Accuser; Claims It Was Consensual
https://bigleaguepolitics.com/fairfax-admits-encounter-with-accuser-claims-it-was-consensual/
Washington Post Refused To Run Sketchy Sex Assault Allegation Against A Democrat. They Ran Several Against Brett Kavanaugh. [“Fake News Dies in the Sunlight”]
https://www.dailywire.com/news/43013/washington-post-refused-run-sketchy-sex-assault-ashe-schow
Documents Show CNN Was Tipped off on Roger Stone Arrest by 29 FBI Armed Agents – Leaked by Deep State! –Documents obtained exclusively by The Gateway Pundit show a copy of the draft indictment without the PACER filing number or official stamps of the court, with metadata on the document identifying it as being authored by “AAW”, who is suspected to be lead Special Counsel prosecutor Andrew Weissmann…