GOLD: $1310.40 DOWN $4.85 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)
Silver: $15.72 DOWN 13 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)
Closing access prices:
Gold : 1306.50
silver: $15.67
For the entire week, China has been off for their lunar New Year. China is such a huge purchaser of physical gold, the crooks now have an easy time shorting gold/silver because they do not have to cover until Monday.
So do not pay any attention to the whacking of gold/silver today. It will last until Monday morning.
For comex gold and silver:
FEBRUARY
NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR FEB CONTRACT: 54 NOTICE(S) FOR 5400 OZ (0.1679 tonnes
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR: 8862 NOTICES FOR 886,200 OZ (27.564 TONNES)
SILVER
FOR FEBRUARY
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
9 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 45,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month: 500 for 2,545,000
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3408: DOWN 63
Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3401 DOWN $71
end
XXXX
JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.
today 30/54
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,314.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/05/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 02/07/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 C JP MORGAN 12
661 H JP MORGAN 18
686 C INTL FCSTONE 3
690 C ABN AMRO 20 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 23 6
800 C MAREX SPEC 7 1
880 H CITIGROUP 16
905 C ADM 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL: 54 54
MONTH TO DATE: 8,862
Let us have a look at the data for today
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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2358 CONTRACTS FROM 209,459 DOWN TO 207,101 ACCOMPANYING YESTERDAY’S 3 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018 RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.
WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 22 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S. WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:
235 EFP’S FOR MARCH, 0 FOR APRIL, 0 FOR MAY, 0 FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 235 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 235 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 235 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 1.175 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANYING:
1.THE 3 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND
2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:
JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);
FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ
FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ
FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION OZ S
FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.
FOR NOV: A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND
21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.
5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.
AND NOW 2.595 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEBRUARY: 4210 CONTRACTS (FOR 5 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 4210 CONTRACTS) OR 21.050 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 842 CONTRACTS OR 4.210 MILLION OZ/DAY)
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB: 21.050 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 3.00% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)* JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.
ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 238.51 MILLION OZ.
JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS: 217.455. MILLION OZ.
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2358 WITH THE 3 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 235 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .
TODAY WE LOST A STRONG SIZED: 2123 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
i.e 235 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 2358 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 3 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.85 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY
In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.047 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 150% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 9 NOTICE(S) FOR 45,000 OZ OF SILVER
IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.
AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.
ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:
- HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018 (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ ) FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT: A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ JANUARY AT 5.825 MILLION OZ.AND NOW FEB 2019: 2.595 MILLION OZ/
- HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018: 244,196 CONTRACTS, WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
- HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
- RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ
AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).
IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 5223 CONTRACTS UP TO 479,736 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.30//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5510 CONTRACTS:
MARCH HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTACTS APRIL 5510 CONTRACTS, DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 479,736. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,733 CONTRACTS: 5223 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5510 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN: 10,733 CONTRACTS OR 1,073,300, OZ = 33.18 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $0.30.
YESTERDAY, WE HAD 10,064 EFP’S ISSUED.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY : 28,633 CONTRACTS OR 2,863,300 OZ OR 89.06 TONNES (5 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5726 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAYS IN TONNES: 89.06 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 89.06/2550 x 100% TONNES = 3.49% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE: 4,720.39 TONNES
JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; 531.20 TONNES
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 5223 WITH THE GAIN IN PRICING ($0.30) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5510 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5510 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 10,733 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
5510 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 5223 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 33.18 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN OF $0.30 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX
we had: 54 notice(s) filed upon for 5400 oz of gold at the comex.
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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD...
WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY
THE FRAUD CONTINUES:
A STRONG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.37 TONNES
/GLD INVENTORY 811.82 TONNES
Inventory rests tonight: 811.82 tonnes.
TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD. IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY
SLV/
WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS IN PRICE TODAY:
A BIG CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV.
A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/
/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ.
end
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2358 CONTRACTS from 209,459 DOWN TO 207,101 AND MOVING CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 1 1/3 YEARS AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..
.
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
235 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MAY., 0 FOR DECEMBER AND AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 235 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2358 CONTRACTS TO THE 235 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A STRONG LOSS OF 1551 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 10.62 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.. A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., 7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. 21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY..AND NOW 2.595 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY.
RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 3 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 235 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.
(report Harvey)
.
2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report
(Harvey)
2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED CHINESE NEW YEAR //Hang Sang CLOSED NEW YEAR /The Nikkei closed UP 29.61 PTS OR 0.14%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.39%
/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.7422 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 53.59 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.92 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED //.
ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.7422AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7700: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED
3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
i)North Korea//USA
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3 C/ CHINA
i) CHINA
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
Germany
German industrial orders plunge 1.6%, the most since 2012 as it seems that the German economy has hit a brick wall
( zerohedge)
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
6. GLOBAL ISSUES
7. OIL ISSUES
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
i)VENEZUELA/USA
Venezuela says that it has intercepted covert USA weapons from Miami
( zerohedge)
9. PHYSICAL MARKETS
c)Palladium is the first metal to break out of the price suppressing derivative cage set up for precious metals by the futures market.
a good read…
( Craig Hemke/Sprott/GATA)
e)France has been for centuries a gold loving country even from the time of Napoleon Bonaparte. Now we see a French magazine challenge the Bank of France’s gold lending scheme as nothing but a scam( Chris Powell/Edouard Freval/Politique magazine_)
10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)
MARKET TRADING
ii)Market data/
The trade deficit shrunk by 11.5% from 51.6 billion down to 49.3 billion dollars. However it was caused by the slowing of imports and a slowing of exports. The slowing of exports exceeds the slowing of imports and thus the improvement
( zerohedge)
a)January was a poor sales month for cars. Today car dealers are overflowing with unsold cars as the ticket price is just too high for the public.
( zerohedge)
iv)SWAMP STORIES
Looks like Eliz. Warren (Fauxcahontas) will never live this one down: in 1986 she identifies herself as an American Indian on her 1986 bar registration. She claimed she never used her “Indian” status to gain entry to anywhere…she was wrong.
( zerohedge)
end
Let us head over to the comex:
THE NEXT NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER FEBRUARY IS THE VERY BIG AND ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 3514 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 134,486 CONTRACTS. AFTER MARCH, APRIL ROSE FROM 17 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 18 FOR A GAIN OF 1. AFTER APRIL, THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS MAY AND HERE THE OI ADVANCED BY 905 CONTRACTS UP TO 40,098 CONTRACTS.
FOR COMPARISON SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH FEB 2018 VS FEB 2019
ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FEB 1/2018 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 670,000 OZ. AT THE MONTH’S CONCLUSION WE HAD 2.035 MILLION OZ STAND AS WE WITNESSED QUEUE JUMPING ON A REGULAR BASIS AT THE SILVER COMEX.
TODAY THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IS 2.050 MILLION OZ./
ITALEXIT: Italy’s Debt Crisis Will Lead To Banking Crisis, Euro Exit and Will “Rock EU To Its Foundations”
– ITALEXIT: Italy to crash out of Euro and ‘rock EU to its foundations’
– Italy’s debt crisis will lead to default, exit from the euro, or both claims respected economist Bootle
– Italy has fallen back into recession with its economy shrinking by 0.2% in the last quarter
– “When Italy finally blows up, it will cause both a banking crisis that will shake the European economy and a political crisis that will rock the EU to its foundations”
by Roger Bootle of Capital Economics in the Daily Telegraph
Last week’s data showing a drop in Italian GDP in Q4 of last year confirmed what many observers had already suspected: Italy is in recession.
Or rather, in another recession, for this follows similar phases in 2008, 2011 and 2012.
Where is this going to end?
Although we have got used to weak economic performance from Italy, for much of the post-war period Italy grew rapidly. In 1987 its GDP even briefly overtook the UK’s. It subsequently dropped down the international league tables so that by the time the euro was formed in 1999 it was already a weak performer. But the euro has made matters worse. Since its formation, Italy has grown by only 9pc.
By contrast, the poor old UK, self-excluded from the benefits of the single currency, has grown by 44pc. Funny that.
It is perhaps surprising that it has taken so long for Italy to reach the current impasse.
Why Italy’s Debts Are Europe’s Big Problem. Click to enlarge. Source: Bloomberg
There are several factors that have kept an incipient crisis at bay. First of all, until recently there was hope. Italy couldn’t just carry on as before and being in the euro offered a real alternative. It may well have been an uncomfortable route, but austerity and “internal devaluation” were supposed to make Italy competitive while also improving the public finances.
After all, Spain has achieved an impressive turnaround. In some ways it helped Italy that Greece was obviously in such a dire position, both running up to the eurozone crisis of 2012 and after it. At least Italy wasn’t Greece.
Continuing the previous trend, throughout Italy’s 20 years in the euro, the political system has been in a mess. Brussels called the shots and the Italian establishment felt in no position to challenge it. Bear in mind that not only was Italy a founding member of both the EU and the euro, but for a long time the Italian public was particularly enthusiastic about the EU and its plans for integration. Resentment of the EU (and Germany in particular) is a relatively new phenomenon.
Over recent years, the recovery of the world economy, encompassing the eurozone, gave hope that the rising tide would float even Italy’s beached boats. And indeed from 2015 to 2017 there was a mild recovery and unemployment fell back.
But now the situation looks completely different. It looks as though the world economy is weakening decisively. The message to be drawn from the US Fed’s abrupt change of tone at its meeting last week is that it suspects the US economy is about to enter a slowdown. (Friday’s strong payrolls data apparently suggested otherwise.)
Italy is closely dependent upon the health of the world economy, with over 30pc of its GDP accounted for by exports, compared to only 12pc for the US. With the Italian economy now contracting again, unemployment is rising from its already appallingly high level of 10pc. Moreover, the surveys suggest continued weakness for the rest of 2019. Despite austerity, the ratio of government debt to GDP is now at 132pc. And there has been no improvement whatsoever in competitiveness against other euro members. Admittedly, Spain continues to do remarkably well but it has become painfully obvious that while Italy isn’t Greece, it isn’t Spain either.
What’s more, the political situation is now radically different. You shouldn’t be misled by last year’s agreement between the EU Commission and the Italian government on Italy’s budget deficit. This was a typical EU fudge. The Italian government believes that stronger growth will be made possible by its laxer fiscal policies, with the result that the budget deficit will come in much lower than the Commission believes. But after recent economic news from both Italy and the wider world, this view goes beyond optimism and into fantasy.
The Italian government has tried to blame the economic slowdown on weakness in the world economy and particularly the slowdown in China. This sounds plausible. One part of the Italian economy that has been particularly weak recently is car production. (Would the UK’s Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, which is wont to blame weakness in the UK’s car production on Brexit, please take note.)
But in Q4 of last year net exports boosted Italian GDP. The key feature of recent Italian GDP numbers has been the weakness of consumers’ expenditure. Expectations of future unemployment have risen and consumers have increased the proportion of their incomes devoted to saving. In essence, the Italian public seems to be sensing trouble ahead.
They are right to. The bond markets continue to worry about the sustainability of Italy’s debt position and its continued membership of the euro. Italian 10-year bond yields are about 2.6pc above their German equivalents, compared to 1.2pc before the current government was formed. Unless Italy manages to conjure up a sustained growth spurt, then the eventual result will be a default, an exit from the euro, or both.
Meanwhile, partly reflecting these prospects, the imbalance in monetary movements within the eurozone continues to widen. Germany continues to build up huge claims on other countries within the euro system, with claims against Italy being the largest. Italy’s (Target 2) liabilities within the euro system have now risen to some €500bn (£438bn).
And who can say how the domestic political situation will pan out? The government could lose popularity as the Italian recession deepens. In May’s elections to the European parliament, Eurosceptic candidates are likely to do well across the continent.
Here in the UK the economic establishment has its gaze fixed on Brexit.
Yet, while Remainers try to find ways of keeping the UK in the EU, the ties that bind the union to one of its founder members and erstwhile keenest supporters are fraying.
As and when Italy finally blows up this will cause both a banking crisis that will shake the European economy and a political crisis that will rock the EU to its foundations.
Click here to read the Telegraph piece in full
News and Commentary
Gold steady as Trump speech stokes fears of govt shutdown (CNBC.com)
Gold finishes lower for third session in a row (MarketWatch.com)
Goldman said to plan cuts to commodity trading desk (MarketWatch.com)
Gold deal rush sweeps by broader mining sector – “options running out” (Reuters.com)
Euro-Area Weakness to Unite East Europe With Rates Seen on Hold (Bloomberg.com)
The Relevance of Gold as a Strategic Asset (Gold.org)
Crypto CEO Dies Holding Only Passwords That Can Unlock Millions in Customer Coins (Bloomberg.com)
Brexit and Who Is Going to Cut Down the Irish Fairy Tree? (BonnerAndPartners.com)
Listen on iTunes,Blubrry & SoundCloud & watch on YouTube above
Gold Prices (LBMA PM)
05 Feb: USD 1,314.00, GBP 1009.15 & EUR 1,150.67 per ounce
04 Feb: USD 1,311.00, GBP 1004.36 & EUR 1,145.55 per ounce
01 Feb: USD 1,320.75, GBP 1008.54 & EUR 1,150.83 per ounce
31 Jan: USD 1,322.50, GBP 1006.95 & EUR 1,152.16 per ounce
30 Jan: USD 1,312.95, GBP 1002.04 & EUR 1,148.44 per ounce
29 Jan: USD 1,308.35, GBP 994.48 & EUR 1,143.24 per ounce
28 Jan: USD 1,301.00, GBP 987.98 & EUR 1,139.81 per ounce
Silver Prices (LBMA)
05 Feb: USD 15.86, GBP 12.19 & EUR 13.89 per ounce
04 Feb: USD 15.74, GBP 12.05 & EUR 13.75 per ounce
01 Feb: USD 16.01, GBP 12.26 & EUR 13.96 per ounce
31 Jan: USD 16.07, GBP 12.24 & EUR 13.99 per ounce
30 Jan: USD 15.91, GBP 12.15 & EUR 13.92 per ounce
29 Jan: USD 15.85, GBP 12.05 & EUR 13.87 per ounce
28 Jan: USD 15.68, GBP 11.93 & EUR 13.75 per ounce
Recent Market Updates
– “Right” Trump and “Left” Ocasio-Cortez Will Join Forces And Debase The Dollar
– 7 Financial Truths In An Uncertain 2019
– Central Banks Buy More Gold In 2018 Than Any Year Since 1967
– Gold Breaks Out of Range After Dovish Fed – Further 1% Gain to $1,321/oz
– U.S.-China War May Be “Just A Shot Away”
– Buy Bitcoin or Gold? Bitcoin Buyers Investing In Gold In 2019
– Gold Consolidates Above $1,300 After 1.2% Gain Last Week
– Gold Bullion Will Protect From Politicians, Brexit and Increasing Market Volatility In 2019
– Brexit – The Pin That Bursts London Property Bubble
– Davos: David Attenborough Warns We Are Damaging The World ‘Beyond Repair’
– Gold May Return 25% In 2019 Given Brexit, Trump and Other Risks – IG TV Interview GoldCore
– Brexit, EU, Germany, China and Yellow Vests In 2019 – Something Wicked This Way Comes
– Three Reasons Gold May Embark On An Extended Rally
5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
6. GLOBAL ISSUES
7 OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKETS
Venezuela
Venezuela says that it has intercepted covert USA weapons from Miami
(courtesy zerohedge)
Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM
Euro/USA 1.1394 DOWN .0015 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES RED
USA/JAPAN YEN 109.75 DOWN 0.194 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…DEADLY TO OUR YEN SHORTERS
GBP/USA 1.2963 UP 0.0006 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED
USA/CAN 1.3185 UP .0058 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)
Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 15 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1394/ Last night Shanghai composite closed /OFF FOR THE WEEK/CHINESE NEW YEAR
//Hang Sang CLOSED CHINESE NEW YEAR
/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.39% /EUROPEAN BOURSES RED
The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED UP 29.61 POINTS OR 0.14%
Trading from Europe and Asia
1/EUROPE OPENED RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED CHINESE NEW YEAR
/SHANGHAI CLOSED CHINESE NEW YEAR
Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.39%
Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 29.61 PTS OR 0.14%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1314.10
silver:$15.75
Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.69% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/
The 30 yr bond yield 3.03 DOWN 0 IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 96.16 UP 10 CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.
This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING
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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.66% UP 0 in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.01% DOWN 0 BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.26% UP 0 IN basis point yield from TUESDAY
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.86 UP 7 POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 160 points HIGHER than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.16% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//
THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.70% AND NOW ABOVE THE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1379 DOWN .0029 or 29 basis points
USA/Japan: 109.74 DOWN 0.197 OR 20 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2949 DOWN.0007( POUND DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar DOWN 68 basis points to 1.3192
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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed HOLIDAY AT 6.7422 0N SHORE (YUAN CLOSED)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: 6.7723( YUAN DOWN)
TURKISH LIRA: 5.2137
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.01%
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.69 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.02 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day /
THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS
Your closing USA dollar index, 96.24 UP 17 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 4.28 OR 0.06%
German Dax : DOWN 43.26 POINTS OR 0.38%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 4.29 POINTS OR 0.08%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 8.90 POINTS OR 0.10%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 162.98 POINTS OR 0.82%
WTI Oil price; 54.04 12:00 pm;
Brent Oil: 62.53 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN / ROUBLE CROSS: 65.76 THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.14 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 14 BASIS PTS)
TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.16 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST
END
This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM
Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 53.96
BRENT : 62.60
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.69..
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.03
EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1368 ( DOWN 41 BASIS POINTS)
USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.94 UP.0020 (YEN DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS/..
.
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.36 UP 29 cent(s)/
The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.2935 DOWN 21 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY
the Turkish lira close: 5.2156
the Russian rouble 65.85: DOWN .27 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( down 27 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar: 1.3204 DOWN 124 BASIS pts
USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.7422 (ONSHORE)/CLOSED FOR THE WEEK
USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7772 (OFFSHORE)
German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.17%
The Dow closed down 20.81 POINTS OR 0.08%
NASDAQ closed down 26.80 POINTS OR 0.38%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.52 CLOSED DOWN 0.05
LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.738% .LIBOR RATES ARE FALLING/
FROM 2.734
And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY
S&P Stalls At Key Technical Level As Earnings Expectations Crash To 6-Month Lows
Please ignore this...
“nothing to see here, move along”
Chinese stock markets remain closed for lunar new year celebrations, but we note that yuan slipped back…
Italian stocks rallied – after massive demand for their bond issue – but the rest of Europe flatlined…
Stocks tried, tried, and tried again to ignite momentum into the green but failed…(Nasdaq and S&P were the laggards on the day)…
Futures show how desperate the algos were to keep pumping stocks to green…
The S&P was unable to break above its 200DMA for the second day in a row…
And has reached the most overbought level since the peak last year…
It seems there is some mysterious bid that appears around 315pmET and lifts the market into the close(for 13 days in a row now)…
FANG Stocks fell today… (shock, horror!)
Stocks and bond yields have decoupled once again…
Treasury yields ended the day practically unchanged, chopping around in a 2bps range…
The short-term market continues to price in rate cuts in 2019 (6bps)…
The dollar (soared) decoupled from bonds yields (lower) in the last two days – we have seen this before…
The dollar is up 5 days in a row (longest streak in 4 months) – surging back above FOMC levels…
The USD strength was dominated by Euro weakness…
Some chaotic moves in Cryptos today…with Bitcoin Cash flying around
PMs faded on the dollar surge today but WTI bounced back as copper held gains…
Gold dropped back below pre-Powell levels once again…
WTI rebounded back to $54, despite notable builds today…
Gold faded in Yuan terms too…
And so finally, going back to where we started, consider the following…
And what do global bond markets know that global stocks don’t?
market trading/
MARKET DATA
The trade deficit shrunk by 11.5% from 51.6 billion down to 49.3 billion dollars. However it was caused by the slowing of imports and a slowing of exports. The slowing of exports exceeds the slowing of imports and thus the improvement
(courtesy zerohedge)
US Trade Deficit Shrank In November
After hitting a record in October, the delayed data for the US Trade Balance (Deficit) in November showed the deficit shrank dramatically.
Against expectations of a small drop to $54.0 billion, the US trade deficit dropped 11.5% to 49.3 billion – smaller than the lowest estimate of 56 economists ($51.6bn to $60bn)…
Under the hood:
- Imports fell 2.9% in Nov. to $259.19b from $266.88b in Oct.
- Exports fell 0.6% in Nov. to $209.87b from $211.18b in Oct.
November imports of automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($32.1 billion) were the highest on record.
November exports of capital goods ($48.4 billion) were the highest on record.
And we suspect – though data is limited for now, that a lot of the deficit shrinkage was due to adrop in the November petroleum deficit to $0.6 billion – the lowest on record.
Is this the start of the reversal of Trump’s trade deficit dive? We will know soon when the delayed data is released (but weakness in imports and exports is not a good sign) which shows that the China trade deficit did indeed shrink…
And at the same time, the November surplus with South and Central America ($5.4 billion) was the highest on record, and November exports to Japan ($6.9 billion) were the highest on record.
end
USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST
January was a poor sales month for cars. Today car dealers are overflowing with unsold cars as the ticket price is just too high for the public.
(courtesy zerohedge)
SWAMP STORIES
Looks like Eliz. Warren (Fauxcahontas) will never live this one down: in 1986 she identifies herself as an American Indian on her 1986 bar registration. She claimed she never used her “Indian” status to gain entry to anywhere…she was wrong.
(courtesy zerohedge)
@dlacalle_IA: Since Powell backtracked and the PBOC stepped up liquidity injections, global money supply has roundtripped to March 18 levels. Forget earnings or macro. This is why markets have rallied. [Chart]https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA/status/1092772327769567232
Trump Inaugural Committee Is Subpoenaed for Documents
The investigation, which is being led by the public corruption unit of the Manhattan U.S. attorney’s office, grew out of the office’s probe into former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen’s business dealings…
The subpoena requests documents related to communications with Imaad Zuberi, a Los Angeles-based financier, and Avenue Ventures LLC, which is described on Mr. Zuberi’s LinkedIn page as a private-equity and venture-capital firm, of which he is vice chairman. Mr. Zuberi in December 2016 donated $900,000 to the Trump inaugural committee through Avenue Ventures, according to FEC records…
Mr. Zuberi was a well-known fundraiser in Democratic circles until after the 2016 election, having previously served as a top fundraiser for Mr. Obama and 2016 Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. Mr. Zuberi had several conversations with Mr. Cohen, who wasn’t officially part of the inaugural committee, about access to inaugural events, according to a person familiar with the matter…
Manhattan federal prosecutors in recent months have also asked Tennessee developer Franklin L. Haney for documents related to a $1 million donation he made to Mr. Trump’s inaugural committee in December 2016…
@almostjingo: So @SDNYnews subpoenaed Inauguration records specific to Imaad Zuberi? If accepting donations from him is illegal than @HillaryClinton & @BarackObama should be worried. He was on Obama’s National Finance Committee and coined a “Hillblazer” by Podesta team.
https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails//fileid/50720/13331
Chuck Schumer Scandal EXPLODES, Top Aide Resigns as Allegations Mount [MSM is mum.]
https://ilovemyfreedom.org/chuck-schumer-scandal-explodes-top-aide-resigns-as-allegations-mount/
Office of Inspector General Releases Findings of Misconduct by FBI Agent Who Violated Federal Law – PROSECUTION DECLINED https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/02/office-of-inspector-general-releases-findings-of-misconduct-by-fbi-agent-who-violated-federal-law-prosecution-declined/
Mueller indicted Manafort for loan fraud on real estate holdings, which is a similar charge to one of the above alleged offenses, “falsely represented material facts on mortgage loan documents”.
Democratic super PAC unleashes opposition research taking aim at Starbucks settling lawsuits with employees as Howard Schultz considers 2020 run – American Bridge 21st Century – which has a war chest supported by… George Soros, investment executive Bernard Schwartz and real estate tycoon George Marcus, according to federal filings – is mounting an offensive against Schultz…
Sen. Booker (D-NJ) recently announced his candidacy for president. Yesterday, during a hearing for a Trump nominated judge, Booker asked the nominee, “Have you ever had any LGBTQ law clerks?”
Neomi Rao retorted, “Senator, I’ve yet to be a judge. I don’t have law clerks.”
end