MARCH 25/GOLD AND SILVER QUITE STRONG TODAY//GOLD UP $9.85//SILVER UP 15 CENTS//HAMAS LAUNCHES ANOTHER ROCKET INTO ISRAEL AND NOW ISRAEL RESPONDS WITH FORCE//USA RECOGNIZES ISRAEL’S ANNEXATION OF THE GOLAN HEIGHTS//CHAOS SUPREME RUNS THE GAMBIT INSIDE THE UK AS IT LOOKS LIKE A NO DEAL BREXIT WILL BE THE STORY OF THE DAY///RUSSIA DELIVERS A RED LINE TO THE USA WITH RESPECT TO VENEZUELA//MUELLER PROBE REVEALS NO COLLUSION AND NOW THE REPUBLICANS GO ON THE OFFENSIVE///THE 10 YR USA BONY YIELD DROPS TO 2.375 : THIS IS THE KEY INTEREST RATE TO WHICH THE ENTIRE ECONOMY FOCUSES ON//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1322.60  UP $9.85 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $15.56 UP 15 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  $1322.40

 

silver: $15.54

 

Comex options expire next week:  Wednesday March 27

London/LBMA expires Monday March 31/2019.

The crooks continue with their whacking right in front of the authorities/regulators despite the criminal probe of precious metals manipulations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

MARCH

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR CONTRACT: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ (0.00 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  384 NOTICES FOR 38400 OZ  (1.944 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MARCH

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR NIL  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 5380 for 26,900,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3987:DOWN $2

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3938  DOWN 66

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today 0/0

MONTH TO DATE: 384

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST CONTINUES TO RISE FOR THE FIFTH CONSECUTIVE TIME:  THIS TIME BY A STRONG  SIZED 1335 CONTRACTS FROM 190,915 UP TO 192,250 DESPITE FRIDAY’S 7 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.  TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS. WE MUST HAVE HAD  CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING AGAIN TODAY.

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

0 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL,  378 FOR MAY, 0 FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 378 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 378 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 378 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 1.890 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 7 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

AND NOW: 27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MARCH:

31,817 CONTRACTS (FOR 17 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 31,817 CONTRACTS) OR 159.085 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1871 CONTRACTS OR 9.357 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR:  159.085 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 22.72% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          524.47    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4       MILLION OZ/

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1335 DESPITE THE 7 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /FRIDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD   A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 378 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED: 1788 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 378 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1410 OI COMEX CONTRACTSAND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 7 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.41 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAVE A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.936 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 134% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR  NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/AND NOW MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 2562 CONTRACTS, TO 518,742 WITH THE STRONG RISE IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(AN INCREASE IN PRICE OF $5.00//FRIDAY’S TRADING).

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7182 CONTRACTS:

MARCH HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTACTS  APRIL 7148 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 34 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 520,184. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9744 CONTRACTS: 2562 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 7182 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 9744 CONTRACTS OR 974400 OR  30.30 TONNES.

FRIDAY WE HAD A GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF $5.00....AND WITH THAT, WE HAD A  HUGE GAIN IN TONNAGE OF 30.30 TONNES!!!!!!.

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH : 118,809 CONTRACTS OR 11,880,900OR 369.54 TONNES (17 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 6988 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 369.54 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 369.54/2550 x 100% TONNES = 14.49% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     1238.51 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED  INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2562 WITH THE GAIN IN PRICING ($5.00) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK FRIDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7182 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7182 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 9744 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7182 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2562 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 30.30 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $5.00 IN FRIDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX!!!!!

 

 

 

we had:  0 notice(s) filed upon for nil oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $9.85  TODAY 

 

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/

 

A DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD

 

 

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 781.03 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS  IN PRICE  TODAY:

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV TODAY

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1335 CONTRACTS from 190,915 UPTO 192,325 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 378 FOR MAY AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 378 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1335 CONTRACTS TO THE 378 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE  OBTAIN A GAIN OF 1700  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 8.50 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY AND NOW 27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH.

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 7 CENT FALL IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 378 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 61.12 POINTS OR 1.97% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 590.01 POINTS OR 2.03%  /The Nikkei closed DOWN 650.23 POINTS OR 3.01%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.15%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7136 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 58.94 dollars per barrel for WTI and 66.90 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED 

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7136 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7187 / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)The USA demands that China uses the USA’s cloud computing services something that China refuses to budge on

( zerohedge)

ii)The USA is again provoking Beijing by sailing through the Strait of Taiwan
( zerohedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK/Sunday

Chaos supreme as there seems to be a coup underway trying to remove Theresa May from her position of PM.

Should be an interesting next 48 hours.

(courtesy zerohedge)

b)UK MONDAY

Fat chance that this will happen:  May offers Brexiteers a deal:  back the withdrawal agreement and she will resign

( zerohedge)

ii)ITALY/CHINA

Italy is going nowhere fast with Brussels and the EU.  This is why Italy’s decision to join the ‘one belt,one road’ initiative makes sense much to the angry of the uSA and EU officials.

iii)Italy officially joins China’s Neocolonial Project
( zerohedge)

iv)Germany/Germany foils a plot stopping a planned attack to kil as many infidels as possible.

(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Turkey

Interesting, on Friday regulators reported that Erdogan is burning through USA reserves like crazy.  JPMorgan upon learning on the huge withdrawal of foreign reserves, gave a press release recommending a 5.90 target for the uSA/Turkish lira.  Now Erdogan is launching a probe on the ‘manipulator’ JPM.

(zerohedge)

ii)Israel
It is about time:  Israel will finally get the recognition of their annexation of the Golan Heights. For years Syrians would be shooting down from the Golan into the valley.  The Golan is very strategic.!
(courtesy zero hedge)

b)Expect an major Israeli assault on Gaza as Hamas fired a long range rocket that destroyed a house in the agricultural town of Mishameret, in the Sharon Valley(zerohedge)

c)ISRAEL  strikes back as they rock Gaza and target the Hamas command centre.

( zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

GLOBAL EVENTS FROM FRIDAY

a)A good review of the major events that occurred on Friday and the weekend:

( Every Rabobank)

b)My goodness: over 10 trillion dollars worth of bonds in this world is trading with a negative yield.
( zerohedge)

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

Venezuela/Russia/USA

a)Venezuela may become a powder keg.  Venezuela is generally in the USA sphere of influence being in South America. However Russia and China have given huge loans to Venezuela.  The USA is hoping for defaults which will cripple China and Russia.

Let us see how this plays out…

FINIAN CUNNINGHAM | 22.03.2019 | WORLD / | FEATURED STORY

(courtesy Strategic Culture/F. Cunningham)

b)This does not look good:  Russian troops arrive in Venezuela as they deploy S300 missile defense systems

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)As noted on Friday we had treasury curve inversion especially on the 10 yr bond yield and the 3 month.  This generally means recession:

( Bloomberg/GATA)

ii)I pointed  this out to you on Friday but it is so important and I will repeat it:  Trump is nominating to the Fed board a harsh critic of the Fed, Stephen Moore.  Trump is going on the offensive.

( Reuters/GATA)

iii)He is correct:  gold will be the last man standing in the crazy fiat currency world

Kingworldnews/Boockvar/GATA)

iv)this is interesting;  according to the Wall Street Journal bitcoin trading is faked by unregulated exchanges:

(courtesy Vigna/Wall Street Journal//GATA)

 

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//early this morning

 

 

 

 

ii)Market data

 

ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

i)Low interest rate and QE has caused inequality among investors as the wealthy can gain access to yield, something that the ordinary investor cannot.

A good commentary by Mises as they pound the table that the Fed has given up and we should be ready for increasing more QE

( McMaken/Mises)

ii)This is going to hurt trade and commerce:  dozens of tankers are stranded in Houston due to the fire and chemical leak. Also cancer producing benzene has leaked into the waters

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Mueller report: no collusion/no obstruction of justice!!

(courtesy zerohedge)

b)It starts:  now that Trump et al have been cleared of the perpetuated hoax of Russian collusion, the House Intelligence committees are now ready for criminal referrals to the Attorney General Barr.

buckle your safety belt..this is going to be quite a bumpy ride..

(courtesy zerohedge)

b ii)The Republicans are now going full blast as Graham vows to investigate the FBI’s unprofessional conduct along with the troubling behaviour by Attorney General Loretta Lynch and of Comey and mcCabe.

(courtesy zerohedge)

c)Kim Strassel of the Wall Street Journal now urges the probe of the real scandal..the democrats trying to overthrough the duly elected President of the USA

(zerohedge/kim Strassel./WSJ

d)How this is cute:  Michael Avenatti is now arrested in an extortion plan against Nike as well as embezzling client funds.  What took them so long

( zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

end

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN REVERSED COURSE AND ROSE BY  2562 CONTRACTS UP TO A LEVEL OF 520,184 WITH THE GOOD GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($5.00) IN FRIDAY’S // COMEX TRADING).

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7182 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR MARCH:  0. FOR APRIL 7148, FOR JUNE: 34 CONTRACTS AND FINALLY DECEMBER: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7182 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 9744 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7182 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 2562 COMEX CONTRACTS.  

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ONLY::9744 contracts OR 974,400 OZ OR 30.30 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of MARCH and here the open interest stands at 15 contracts  for a  loss of 0 contracts.We had 0 notices served upon yesterday so we  GAINED 0 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL NIL oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus for their effort. QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS IN EARNEST AT THE GOLD COMEX!!!

 

 

 

The next non active delivery month after  March is the  active delivery month is April and here the OI lost by 25,004 contracts down to 155.220 contracts. The non active month of May GAINED 15 contracts UP to 731 open interest.  After May, the next active delivery month is June and here the OI stands at 261,650 having gained 22,323 contracts.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR nil OZ. (0.00 tonnes)

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1335 CONTRACTS FROM 190,335 up TO 192,250(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED DESPITE 7 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//FRIDAY 

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND THE  OPEN INTEREST IN THIS FRONT MONTH RESTS AT 44 HAVING LOST 1 CONTRACT.

WE HAD 1 NOTICE FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR NIL ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND AT THE SILVER COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER FOR OVER 3 YEARS IN THAT THE TOTAL OZ STANDING INCREASES FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE STANDING.

 

 

 

 

AFTER MARCH, WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.  HERE: APRIL LOWERS TO  777 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 20 CONTRACTS.  AFTER APRIL, THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS MAY AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 733 CONTRACTS UP TO 136,659 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED A GOOD 1700 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 1410 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 378 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1700 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS STRONG  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 7 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// FRIDAY 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL  OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  308,258  CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  363,633  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Initial standings for  MAR/GOLD

MAR 25 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
4932.05
oz
JPMorgan
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

 

nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notice(s)
 nil OZ
(0.0000 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
15 contracts
(1500 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
384 notices
38400 OZ
1.1944 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

 

total gold deposits: nil oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside/today zero.

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

i)out of JPMorgan:  4932.05 oz

 

total gold withdrawals;  4932.05 oz

 

we had 0  adjustments…and this is what I want to see:

FOR THE MAR 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MARCH/2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (384) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR. (15 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 39,900 OZ OR 1.2410 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of MARCH

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (384 x 100 oz)  + {15)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz )which equals 39,900 oz standing OR 1.2410 TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH.

We GAINED 0 contracts or an additional NIL OZ ADDITIONAL oz WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING TO ACCEPT A FIAT BONUS.

 

HOWEVER, THE GOLD COMEX (AND SILVER COMEX) ARE NOW IN STRESS AS THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO FIND PHYSICAL METAL.

SURPRISINGLY NO GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 11.388 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  361.155.865 oz or  11.234 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,033,897.301 oz 249.88 tonnes

FOR COMPARISON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR APRIL 2018 AND FINAL STANDING APRIL 30 2018

AT FIRST DAY NOTICE APRIL 1.201819.897 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

AT CONCLUSION APRIL 30/2018:  ONLY 4.6407 TONNES STOOD AS THE REST MIGRATED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S

ON MARCH 26.2018 WE HAD 159,753 CONTRACTS LEFT TO BE SERVED UPON WITH 3 DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE FRONT APRIL CONTRACT.

ON MARCH 25: 2019 WE HAD 162,430 CONTRACTS LEFT TO BE SERVED UPON WITH  4 DAYS LEFT BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE MARCH 1/2018: TOTAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 2.1524 TONNES

THE FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE: MARCH 31/20181.6114 TONNES AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

IN THE LAST 30 MONTHS 105 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH

MAR INITIAL standings/SILVER

MAR 25 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
659,016l440 oz
Brinks
 Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
44 contracts
220,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 5380 contracts

(26,900,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 147.825 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.12% of all official comex silver. (147 million/300.8 million)

 

i) Into CNT  999.30 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  999.30   oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i) Out of Brinks: 658,001.85 oz
ii) Out of Delaware:  1014.59 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 659,016.59  oz

 

we had 0 adjustment

i

 

total dealer silver:  95.454 million

total dealer + customer silver:  301.769 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MARCH 2019. contract month is represented by 1 contract(s) FOR  5,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5380 x 5,000 oz = 26,900,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR. (44) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAR/2019 contract month: 5380(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR( 44) -number of notices served upon today (1)x 5000 oz equals 27,120,000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand as investors continue to shun morphing into London based EFP’s  as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON VS LAST YEAR:

 

ON MARCH 1.2018 WE HAD 24.670 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STAND FOR DELIVERY. BY THE CONCLUSION OF THE DELIVERY MONTH, 27.190 MILLION OZ STOOD AS QUEUE JUMPING IN THE SILVER COMEX ARENA HAD BEEN THE NORM FOR QUITE A WHILE. (MARCH IS AN ACTIVE MONTH)

ON  FIRST DAY NOTICE MARCH 29/2018: WE HAD 1,805,000 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY FOR THE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH

AT CONCLUSION OF APRIL: 2,485,000 OZ STOOD FOR DELIVERY AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS ALREADY WELL DEVELOPED IN SILVER. (APRIL IS A NON ACTIVE SILVER DELIVERY MONTH)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  49,405 CONTRACTS (volume dramatically increased)

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 56.681 CONTRACTS… (volume increasing.

volumes are dropping for both gold/and silver despite the rise in price

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 756,681 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 283 million OZ  40.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -2.69% (MAR25/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.69% to NAV (MAR25/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.69%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.31/TRADING 12.92/DISCOUNT 2.90

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.85: A STRONG 2.94 TONNES DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 781.03 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 778.09 TONNES

MARCH 21/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 778.09 TONNES

March 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 778.09 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD UP $4.60 TODAY: A MASSIVE 8.23 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 779.27 TONNES AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1..18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED:  TOTAL GLD INVENTORY REMAINING:  778.09 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN  $0.70: A BIG CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 771.04 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT AGAIN OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.53 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.40: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD DOWN ONLY $1.70: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.87 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY AND THIS GOLD HAS BEEN USED IN THE WHACKING PROCESS YESTERDAY AND TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD ANOTHER $12.50 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 11.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MAR 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY; A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.22 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33 TONNES

FEB 26  WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

 

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.99 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/ A SURPRISE GAIN (DEPOSIT) OF 2.05 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.50 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 792.45 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.95/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD THIS MORNING AND THEN  0.58 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON///INVENTORY RESTS AT 792,45 TONNES. FROM FEB 1/2019 UNTIL TODAY, GOLD IS UP $24.25 AND YET GOLD WITHDRAWALS ARE A HUGE 31.42 TONNES/THIS IS CRIMINAL!!

FEB 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

MAR 25/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 778.09 tonnes

*IN LAST 565 TRADING DAYS: 153.92 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 465 TRADING DAYS: A NET 12.90 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ////

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.356 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 21/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ/

March 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES  IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TODAY AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 1.17 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY AT THE SLV RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY AT THE SLV RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ////

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 516,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: STRANGE!! TWO TRANSACTIONS!!  IN THE MORNING A WITHDRAWAL OF 703,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307,800 OZ/ IN THE AFTERNOON: A DEPOSIT OF 1.56 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY FINALLY RESTS AT 309.160 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 871,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS//A  SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 610,000 OZ//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374 MILLION OZ/

FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT; NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/RESTS AT 309.984

FEB 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ/

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS: SURPRISINGLY A DEPOSIT OF 1.688 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INVENTORY/ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 20/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS AND ON A TEAR: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UIP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 938,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ/

 

MAR 25/2019:

 

Inventory 309.844 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.16/ and libor 6 month duration 2.68

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .52

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.49%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.79

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.30

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Russia Buys 1 M

 

 

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

As noted on Friday we had treasury curve inversion especially on the 10 yr bond yield and the 3 month.  This generally means recession:

(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

Treasuries buying wave triggers first yield curve inversion since 2007

 Section: 

By Emily Barrett and Katherine Greifeld
Bloomberg News
Friday, March 23, 2019

The Treasury yield curve inverted Friday for the first time since the last crisis, triggering the first reliable market signal of an impending recession and rate-cutting cycle.

The gap between the three-month and 10-year yields vanished as a surge of buying pushed the latter to a 14-month low of 2.416 percent. Inversion is considered a reliable harbinger of recession in the U.S. within roughly the next 18 months.

… 

Demand for government bonds gained momentum Wednesday when U.S. central bank policy makers lowered both their growth projections and their interest-rate outlook. Most officials now envisage no hikes this year, down from a median call of two at the December Fed meeting. Traders took that dovish shift as their cue to dig into positions for a Fed easing cycle, pricing in a cut by the end of 2020 and a one-in-two chance of a reduction as soon as this year. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-22/u-s-treasury-yield-cu…

END

I pointed  this out to you on Friday but it is so important and I will repeat it:  Trump is nominating to the Fed board a harsh critic of the Fed, Stephen Moore.  Trump is going on the offensive.

(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

Trump nominates to Fed board a harsh critic of its chairman

 Section: 

By Roberta Hampton
Reuters
Friday, March 22, 2019

PALM BEACH, Florida — President Donald Trump on Friday tapped Stephen Moore, a conservative economic commentator and fellow critic of Federal Reserve policy under Chairman Jerome Powell, to join the U.S. central bank’s board of governors, a move that would put a Trump loyalist inside the world’s most important financial institution.

Moore, who last year suggested in a radio interview that Trump had cause to fire Powell for “wrecking our economy,” would add a critical and unconventional voice to a collegial committee that unanimously backed Powell in keeping rate hikes on hold this month.

The group often reach policy decisions by consensus after debating the issues. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-moore/trump-taps-a-strident-p…

* * *

END

He is correct:  gold will be the last man standing in the crazy fiat currency world

Kingworldnews/Boockvar/GATA)

Gold will be ‘last man standing in this nutty fiat currency world,’ Boockvar tells KWN

 Section: 

1p ICT Saturday, March 23, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The chief investment officer for Bleakley Financial Group, Peter Boockvar, tells King World News that he’s not sure if there is any case left against gold.

“The evaporation of the U.S. yield curve, on top of a further deepening of negative yielding bonds overseas, should be the fuel for the next move higher in gold and silver,” Boockvar says. “What’s also interesting is that, at least as of now, gold and the U.S. dollar are rallying at the same time and if that continues, I’m not sure what is left of the bear case on gold. Gold will be the last man standing in this nutty fiat currency world. Got any?”

Boockvar’s comments are posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/peter-boockvar-says-this-will-be-the-fuel-for-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

this is interesting;  according to the Wall Street Journal bitcoin trading is faked by unregulated exchanges:

(courtesy Vigna/Wall Street JournalGATA)

Most bitcoin trading faked by unregulated exchanges, study finds

 Section: 

How is this so different from the stock, bond, and commodity markets, where most trading now is done by machines following algorithms, much of it instigated by government agencies?

* * *

By Paul Vigna
The Wall Street Journal
Friday, March 22, 2019

Nearly 95 percent of all reported trading in bitcoin is artificially created by unregulated exchanges, a new study concludes, raising fresh doubts about the nascent market following a steep decline in prices over the past year.

Fraudulent trading volume has dogged cryptocurrency trading for years, but the extent of the market manipulation has been difficult to determine. Bitwise Asset Management said its analysis of trading activity at 81 exchanges over four days in March indicates that the actual market for bitcoin is far smaller than previously thought.

… 


.The San Francisco-based company submitted its research to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission with an application to launch a bitcoin-based exchange-traded fund. The study, made public Thursday, is an attempt to alleviate the agency’s longstanding concerns that a bitcoin ETF would leave investors exposed to fraud and market manipulation.

Bitwise’s fund, if approved, would be based upon the 5 percent of trading it considers legitimate, said Matthew Hougan, Bitwise’s head of global research. That volume comes from 10 regulated exchanges that can verify that their trading data and customers are real. This slice of the market, he said, is well-regulated, transparent, and efficient. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/most-bitcoin-trading-faked-by-unregulated-e…


iii) Other Physical stories
From Kevin Wallien to all of us:
very important why gold being a Tier one asset will play a major role in gold’s price advancement

Brexit, Gold Tier 1, QFC Stay Rules and MIFID II

Inbox x

Kevin Wallien

Sun, Mar 24, 6:17 PM (13 hours ago)

 

To all of Harvey’s quite amazing group of followers, please apologize for e-mailing any of you. The “but” is because so many of you are tuned in more than me, I thought maybe someone could take the thought to a higher level. It has to do with Brexit, Gold Tier 1, QFC Stay Rules and MIFID II.

 

Although lengthy but maybe very significant. Tier 1 collateral of physical allocated, segregated, 99.99% assayed Gold just may be the bull’s eye after all.

 

The first link below came into effect just after January 1, 2019. The 2nd and 3rd links below came out just prior to Brexit in June 2016. They all deal with “Covered” QFC’s that are “centrally cleared” through an exchange. For Brexit 2016, the UK had just recently passed this ruling relating to QFC’s that are “covered & centrally” cleared. It brings back memories to me of the post-Brexit trading after the June 2016 vote on how the markets all recovered miraculously. This time around with so many institutions that have moved funds out of the UK, it makes me wonder if this time around the markets will be so lucky if a long Brexit delay is not agreed to before March 29. The European Union, a single political and economic bloc, has faced multiple challenges since 2016 that brought its viability into question not to mention China and Russia gaining so many inroads into Eurasian trade with European trade with US in decline led by Germany also appearing to lead the way south in economic activity in Europe. If after March 29, Brexit puts the fear that the U.K. actually leaves the bloc, it remains to be seen whether the EU still has the ability to withstand more shocks. Not even Q-Anon and MAGA sheeples will be able to keep from focusing on these shocks. And whereas most analyst appear to believe that Brexit will never happen, if along Brexit delay does not occur markets will react sharply.

 

http://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/x/787040/Commodities+Derivatives+Stock+Exchanges/An+End+Users+Practical+Guide+to+the+QFC+Stay+Rules

 

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/tarullo-opening-statement-qfr-20160503.htm

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-03/fed-expected-to-drag-hedge-funds-into-plan-to-halt-next-lehman (Unfortunately the Bloomberg link now requires subscriber access.)

 

As March 29 is significant again in Brexit as well as in reclassifying physical gold as Tier 1, maybe there is something significant in the protocol that will affect non-centrally cleared derivatives which in the US and UK have grown significantly since 2016. Now as of January 1, 2019 in the U.S. and June 106 in the UK, any and all “centrally” cleared QFC’s with ‘covered” counterparties in in effect. “Covered” institution are global systemically important banking organizations. “Centrally” cleared QFC’s of course are cleared through the ISDA system for all to see. These rulings prevents a “take your money from your counterparty and run” causing bankruptcy and market chaos whereas all centrally cleared QFC’s appear to have a 24-48 hour hold on allowing the “covered” winning entity from collecting from its “covered” losing counterparty if they can secretly enter a resolution proceeding and permit the transfer of the relevant obligations under the QFC to the solvent party

out of the public’s view in order to prevent a crash yet simultaneously redistribute assets. By hell or high water behind the curtain they will force, steal, threaten, or otherwise convince that losing counter party to enter into stay and transfer provisions even though the losing party hasn’t formally declared bankruptcy. The end result is making deals behind the table out of the public’s view preventing market chaos like we had in Lehman.

 

But to my knowledge because MFID ii in the Europe its own mammoth set of OTC Derivatives and CCP regulations are only 58% implemented in EU. MIFID ii applies to centrally cleared derivatives that unlike other financial instruments, have never really had a product identifier. MIFID ii assigns an identifier “ISIN” that makes “all” centrally cleared OTC derivatives easy to regulate by authorities, and market participants to identify collateral and thereby accurately re-price risk  for “all” OTC centrally cleared derivatives. CCPs will be required to have a substantial minimum amount of “skin in the game.” Also relating to MIFID ii, in January 2018, the LBMA flatly rejected that OTC Gold would be included in that MFID II legislation. It makes me wonder if those same parties in the centrally cleared QFC’s have their eye on physical gold at the LBMA or elsewhere knowing behind the door resolutions will be made that permit the transfer of the relevant obligations under the QFC to the solvent party all the while gold is simultaneously getting Tier 1 status.

 

https://www.itiviti.com/insights/mifid-ii-turning-challenges-opportunities

 

It also makes we wonder if March 29 Brexit date could actually see a plethora of CCP’s in Europe, US. And UK whose QFC’s are not centrally cleared take some swift action in the market after hard Brexit is confirmed without further delays. “In the first quarter of 2015, banks began reporting their volumes of cleared and non-cleared derivative transactions, as well as risk weights for counterparties in each of these categories. In the fourth quarter of 2018, 39.8 percent of banks’ derivative holdings were centrally cleared (see table 12). https://www.occ.gov/topics/capital-markets/financial-markets/derivatives/pub-derivatives-quarterly-qtr4-2018.pdf That means 60.1% of US financial institutions’ $176T in derivatives are not centrally cleared and do not have to abide by Fed QFC’s rules or MIFID ii guidelines. Considering in the US that the amount in non-centrally cleared derivatives of about $100T and centrally cleared of about $76T are about the same as in June 2016 and the current state of the EU banking system, some real havoc may ensue for those failing institutions with a Brexit trigger.

 

Tier 1 collateral of physical allocated, segregated, 99.99% assayed Gold just may be the bull’s eye after all.

 

 

https://www.occ.gov/topics/capital-markets/financial-markets/derivatives/pub-derivatives-quarterly-qtr2-2016.pdf

 

 

Kevin Wallien

-END-

(courtesy Tom Lewis/GoldTelegraph.com)

Are We Running Out Of Gold?

Authored by Tom Lewis via GoldTelegraph.com,

Gold has been used for jewelry and currency for thousands of years. It has always served as a source of status and wealth. The reason for its popularity is its rarity. Gold is a finite commodity. There is only so much of the golden metal available, and it can’t be manufactured.

Some experts, including Goldcorp’s chairman, Ian Telfer, are predicting that the amount of future gold to be mined is already on the decline. The fact that gold mining is on the decline is nothing new. That has happened before. What is worrying some investors is that the world may be running out of physical gold.

Should investors be worried?

The discovery of new gold deposits has been declining while mining companies are spending more money on exploration for new sites. Most of the newly-found deposits have been small and expensive to extract. No high-grade deposits with at least 5 million ounces of gold, or “world-class” deposits, have been found in a long time. These world-class deposits have yielded more than 50 percent of today’s available gold.

What little is being extracted is becoming costly to obtain. Many deposits are producing 1.4 grams of gold per ton, as compared to 10 grams in the 1970s.

Mining companies are struggling. Many have merged to offset decreasing profits and declining gold supply. The gold industry has been witnessing a wave of mergers over the past few months as producers battle poor returns and diminishing reserves.

In March of this year, Barrick Gold, the world’s second-largest gold producer, and Newmont Mining agreed on a joint venture in Nevada instead of Barrick Gold buying Newmont Mining outright. Newmont Mining acquired Goldcorp earlier this year in an effort at developing greater and more economical resources.

Barrick Gold believes that Nevada still has plenty of gold, perhaps 76 million ounces.

According to mining analyst John Ing, it may be cheaper to buy another gold mining company than explore for new gold. This opinion is seconded by analyst Ryan Hanley of Laurentian Bank Securities, who claims that the time and cost of gold exploration makes mergers a more profitable proposition for these majors.

The real problem is not the lack of gold but the current price of gold. The price of gold has been holding at around $1,300 an ounce, down from its high of $1,800 an ounce in 2012. However, with peak gold in sight, we anticipate the price of gold to elevate so more exploration dollars can be allocated.

The amount of money mining companies have allocated for new explorations has declined from a high of $21 billion in 2012 to $10.1 billion in 2018.

While global economies are currently presenting a strong picture, it is anticipated that economic growth will slow down globally. This could very well see the price of gold climbing to $1,300 an ounce, its highest level since 2013. A rise in gold prices is very likely with geopolitical and recession risks to coincide with peak gold.

end
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

-END-

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7136/

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7187   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 61.12 POINTS OR 1.99% /

 

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 599.01 POINTS OR 2.03%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed //DOWN 650.29 POINTS OR 3.01%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED RED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 96.62/Euro RISES TO 1.1308

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.08/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.12/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 58.94 and Brent: 66.90

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  DOWN  /OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO –.01%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.48% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.09%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.49: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.77

3k Gold at $1317.55 silver at:15.53   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 28/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.28

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.12 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9937 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1236 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to –0.01%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.46% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.90%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6907

 

Asia Crumbles, Futures Hug 2,800 As Traders Await New Recession Signals

Following Friday’s global beatdown when the 3M-10Y yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007, launching the countdown to the next recession, optimism was scarce to start the week as European shares slumped, S&P futures pointed to another day of fighting the gravitational attraction of 2,800 and Asian stocks tumbled, even as a glimmer of hope emerged in Germany where the IFO index beat expectations, helping push Treasury yields higher and the bund briefly rose above 0.00%.

The session started on the back foot, with the MSCI Asia Pacific index tumbling 2%, its biggest drop of the year, as regional stocks tracked Friday’s heavy Wall Street losses, and Japan’s Nikkei hit a five-week low after diving 3.1 percent for its largest one-day percentage fall since late December. South Korea’s Kospi index declined 1.7 percent, while China shares was also in the red with the blue-chip CSI 300 index down 1.4 percent.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe slipped 0.5 percent. The gloomy mood was expected to spread to U.S. markets with S&P 500 futures skidding 0.2 percent. However, they were down as much as 0.5 percent earlier in the day.

World stocks hit a 12-day trough on Monday as fears for economic growth sent investors dashing for safe-haven assets, but the selloff lost some momentum after better-than-expected data from Germany.

A faint glimmer of hope that Europe’s recession may be fading came from the Ifo Institute’s March business climate index which unexpectedly rose, printing at 99.6, above the 98.5 expected (98.7 in February)…

… soothing nerves after Friday’s dismal German manufacturing data, which helped spark a global selloff that hammered stock markets and pushed key benchmark bond yields below zero.

Whereas the much discussed inversion in the 3M-10Y yield curve – the Fed’s favorite leading recession indicator – on Friday stoked fears that the world’s largest economy was headed for recession, the Ifo report lent some cheer. It helped European shares – where tech shares led declines – rise off early lows. Paris traded flat, London’s FTSE was down 0.2 percent, and Frankfurt inched up 0.14 percent after the numbers. Europe’s banking as well as industrial goods & services sectors which were down 1 percent at one point, recouped losses to trade flat. But the jitters are far from over.

Futures on the S&P 500 Index decreased as much as 0.5 percent to the lowest in almost two weeks, before rebounding and hugging the 2,800 “sextuple top.”

Meanwhile, the flight to safety continued around the globe, with Australia’s 10-year bond yield sliding to an all-time low and Japan’s hit the lowest since September 2016.

“Global equities were kind of complacent” as rates markets reflected growth concerns, said Marcella Chow, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management in Hong Kong. “It was the release of global PMI data last Friday that shook off the complacency,” she added.

The glimmers of German economic optimism helped push spreads between U.S. three-month and 10-year Treasury yields positive. U.S. 10-year treasury yields stood at 2.47% after yields inverted for the first time since 2007 on Friday: historically a failsafe harbinger of upcoming recession.

“The bond market price action is an enormous blaring siren to anyone trying to be optimistic on stocks,” JPMorgan analysts said in a note to clients. “Growth, and bonds/yield curves, will be the only thing stocks should be focused on going forward, and it’s very hard to envision any type of rally until economic confidence stabilizes and bonds reverse.”

“We had a dire end to 2018 which was then recouped so you have a very good reason to lighten up on portfolios,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, chief economist at CA Indosuez in Geneva, adding that confusion over the state of play in Britain’s impending departure from the European Union clouded the picture more.  “Many people may have realized a major part of their expected returns for the year, so in light of recent gains it makes sense for investors to should lighten up on risk.”

And while investors also digesting news that Special Counsel Robert Mueller found no evidence anyone close to President Donald Trump colluded with Russia in the 2016 presidential campaign, judging by the lack of notable reaction the news did not come as much of a surprise to traders. While Mueller failed to exonerate Trump on obstruction of justice, Attorney General William Barr said he did not find enough evidence to pursue that charge.

In overnight central bank news, Fed’s Evans (voter, dove) said the US economy is in a strong position and that it is a good time to pause and be cautious, while he added that US monetary policy is currently neither accommodative or restrictive. Evans also commented they will take action if inflation undershoots, while he wants to see more inflation and does not expect a rate hike till H2 next year. Adding they may have to ease if economic activity weakens more than expected and that the recent US data has been softer than expected.  Fed’s Harker (non-voter, dove) said economic risks tilt very slightly to the downside, and that outlook is pretty good. He reiterated the Fed’s wait-and-see stance whilst stating he favors one rate hike at most this year. He noted inflation is around the Fed’s target, is edging slightly downward. Finally, he expects GDP slightly above 2% in 2019, returning to around 2% trend level in 2020.

ECB’s Rehn said Brexit is the biggest threat to Euro zone in the short-term and that markets are underestimating the risks, while he added Euro zone growth has slowed significantly and that we must be concerned. ECB’s Hansson says that the Euro-area slowdown may continue in the medium term; tiered deposit rate has not really been discussed. QE could be restarted in event of major shock.

Political turmoil in Britain over the country’s exit from the European Union also remains a drag on risk assets. Prime Minister Theresa May held crisis talks with senior colleagues and hardline Brexiteers on Sunday trying to breathe life into her twice-defeated European divorce deal after reports her cabinet was plotting to topple her.

Rupert Murdoch’s Sun newspaper said in a front page editorial May must announce on Monday she will stand down as soon as her Brexit deal is approved. The British pound was 0.2% lower after three straight days of wild gyrations. The currency had slipped 0.7 percent last week.

Elsewhere in FX, the Turkish lira, which crashed on Friday, recouped some of its losses which followed the start of an investigation by Turkey’s banking regulator into JPMorgan Chase and another probe of unspecified banks for stoking the currency’s plunge.  The Bloomberg dollar spot index was steady while the euro rose to a session high, European stocks bounced from a session low and the 10-year Bund yield climbed back above zero percent after stronger-than-forecast German Ifo business confidence, alleviating some fears of a sharp economic slowdown. Sweden’s krona led gains among Group-of-10 peers as it recovered some of the sharp losses on Friday while the yen led declines, after earlier touching a six-week high, as an earlier haven bid faded while Japan’s bonds rallied and 10-year yields fell to the lowest since 2016.

In commodities, WTI (+0.1%) and Brent (-0.1%) futures rebounded off lows amid an improvement in risk-appetite with the former flirting with the USD 59.00/bbl to the upside whilst the latter resides just below the USD 67.00/bbl level. The latest CFTC data also showed that speculators increased next longs in NYMEX WTI by over 54k lots with a bulk of this increase driven by fresh positions. Elsewhere, Chinese crude imports increased by 2% in February to average around 10.3mln BPD, with a Y/Y increase of just under 22%. Furthermore, the country increased its share of Iranian and Venezuelan imports over February.

Economic data include index readings on manufacturing and national activity. Red Hat is due to report earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2,807
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 373.20
  • MXAP down 2.1% to 158.05
  • MXAPJ down 1.6% to 521.06
  • Nikkei down 3% to 20,977.11
  • Topix down 2.5% to 1,577.41
  • Hang Seng Index down 2% to 28,523.35
  • Shanghai Composite down 2% to 3,043.03
  • Sensex down 1.2% to 37,725.77
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.1% to 6,126.21
  • Kospi down 1.9% to 2,144.86
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to -0.011%
  • Euro down 0.02% to $1.1300
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $66.69/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to 2.095%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.5 bps to 1.087%
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $66.69/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,317.02
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.02% to 96.64

Top Overnight News

  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is under pressure from colleagues inside her Cabinet to name a date when she will step down, according to people familiar with the matter
  • Special Counsel Robert Mueller found no evidence that anyone close to Donald Trump colluded with Russia after a 22-month investigation, and Attorney General William Barr said there wasn’t enough evidence that the president obstructed justice either
  • Australia’s10-year bond yield fell below 1.8% for the first time amid a rally in developed debt markets, with the inversion of the U.S. curve adding to concern global growth is slowing
  • Turkey’s lira rebounded after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that bankers deemed responsible for speculating against the currency would be punished
  • The openness of China’s financial markets to the rest of the world isn’t high, so there’s a lot of room for increased access, according to People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang
  • China will increase market’s decisive role in yuan exchange rate formation system and keep yuan rate flexible, China Business News reports, citing PBOC Deputy Governor Pan Gongsheng
  • Oil extended losses on signs global growth may weaken further, overshadowing a drop in the amount of American rigs exploring for crude to the lowest level in almost a year
  • The Bloomberg dollar spot index was steady while the pound edged lower at the start of another dramatic week for Theresa May’s premiership, with all Brexit options still in play; Theresa May is under pressure from colleagues inside her Cabinet to name a date when she will step down, according to people familiar with the matter
  • The euro rose to a session high, European stocks bounced from a session low and the 10-year Bund yield climbed back above zero percent after stronger-than-forecast German Ifo business confidence, alleviating some fears of a sharp economic slowdown
  • Sweden’s krona led gains among Group-of-10 peers as it recovered some of the sharp losses on Friday while the yen led declines, after earlier touching a six-week high, as an earlier haven bid faded while Japan’s bonds rallied and 10-year yields fell to the lowest since 2016

Asian equity markets began the week with hefty losses as the region followed suit to the stock sell-off last Friday on Wall St where disappointing PMI data from both sides of the Atlantic added to slowdown concerns, while curve inversion in which yields on US 3-month T-bills rose above 10yr yields for the first time since the GFC also stoked recession fears. ASX 200 (-1.1%) and Nikkei 225 (-3.1%) declined from the open in which Tech and Energy led the broad losses across the sectors in Australia, while selling in Tokyo was exacerbated by flows into JPY which dragged the local benchmark below the 21,000 level. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-2.0%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.9%) conformed to the negative tone as participants digested a slew of earnings and after PBoC inaction resulted to a CNY 60bln liquidity drain, with oil names among the worst hit following a recent slip in crude prices. Finally, 10yr JGBs were underpinned by safe-haven demand and as yields tracked the declines in global counterparts to push the 10yr JGB yield to its lowest since September 2016 and 30yr JGB yields to its lowest since November 2016.

Top Asian News

  • Thaksin Allies Claim Victory in Thai Election, Challenging Army
  • Thai Poll Agency Says it Was Hacked, Will Release Results 4pm
  • China Stocks Slide, Bonds Rally as Global Growth Worries Weigh
  • Citigroup Moves Sales Traders to Cover for Ousted Hong Kong Team

European equities kicked off Monday trade mostly lower [Stoxx 600 -0.2%] following a dismal lead from Asia wherein the Nikkei 225 shed 3.0% and closed below 21,000 for the first time in over a month. Back in Europe, stocks have somewhat nursed opening losses as sentiment improved following a better-than-forecast German Ifo Survey which aided the DAX (+0.1%) climb into positive territory. Elsewhere, Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.4%) is marginally outperforming its peers as Fiat Chrysler (+3.3%) supports the index amid reports its chairman is pushing for a tie up with a rival, Peugeot (-0.7%) has been touted as a potential suitor. Sector-wise, IT names are underperforming, in-fitting with the sector’s performance overnight, whilst the consumer discretionary sector is buoyed by the overall positivity in auto stocks. Finally, this morning saw a LVMH (-0.5%) open lower by just under 9% and immediately pared losses with traders citing a potential “fat-finger” incident.

Top European News

  • May Faces Endgame as U.K. Leader Is Losing Control of Brexit
  • Majestic Wine Slides on ‘Drastic and Unexpected’ Strategy Shift
  • Banks Cut at Barclays, Making Room for Real Estate and Utilities

In FX, the Euro was not the biggest G10 mover or best performer, but the single currency has staged a firmer recovery rebound from sub-1.1300 lows vs the Dollar in wake of an encouraging Ifo survey, with beats on all 3 key metrics compounded by upward revisions to the previous month across the board. Hot on the heels of last Friday’s dire Eurozone preliminary PMIs, and an especially worrying German manufacturing print, the institute contends that the bloc’s number one economy is displaying relative resistance, and this has helped to dispel some concerns about a deeper slowdown, or even recession. However, Eur/Usd has not clearly breached upside technical resistance in the form of the 30 DMA that comes in around 1.1321.

  • SEK/NOK – The Scandi Crowns are back on the front foot and leading the major league, with the Sek especially buoyant on a mixture of improving risk sentiment, bullish technicals and the Riksbank maintaining repo rate guidance for further tightening. Eur/Sek is back down below 10.4500 and Eur/Nok is eying bids/support at 9.6500 against the backdrop of oil prices trying to recover some poise after their end of week rout.
  • AUD/NZD/CAD – All firmer vs their US counterpart after sharp underperformance last Friday when aversion was rife and safe-haven positioning escalated. Aud/Usd is back within striking distance of 0.7100 and Nzd/Usd is not too much further from 0.6900 even though Aud/Nzd has crossed 1.0300 from its latest decline through the big figure, while Usd/Cad is hovering near the bottom end of a 1.3445-05 range, as the Loonie also derives some underlying support from the aforementioned bounce in crude.
  • JPY/GBP/CHF – Usd/Jpy has bounced from overnight safe-haven lows in line with the gradual improvement in risk appetite and through heavy 110.00 option expiry interest at the round number (2 bn), while Cable also looks unlikely to test expiry interest or hedges at the 1.3200 strike (1.6 bn) given ongoing/heightened Brexit jitters that have pulled the Pound down towards 1.3160 and close to 0.8600 vs the Euro (Ifo also impacting this pair). Similarly, the Franc has unwound some safe-haven premium towards 0.9950 against the Greenback from circa 0.9933 at one stage and 1.1250 vs around 1.1223 against the single currency.
  • EM – Yet more thrills and spills for the Lira after official intervention against a big US bank that put out a bearish trade recommendation on the Try, and the CBRT’s decision to double swap limits on outstanding FX maturities after shelving 1 week repos. Usd/Try currently at 5.6400 within a 5.7700-5.5700 band.
  • Turkish President Erdogan said those in the finance sector that purchase foreign currencies on expectations a decline in TRY, will pay a very heavy price. (Newswires)

In commodities, WTI (+0.1%) and Brent (-0.1%) futures have rebounded off lows amid an improvement in risk-appetite with the former flirting with the USD 59.00/bbl to the upside whilst the latter resides just below the USD 67.00/bbl level. The latest CFTC data also shows that speculators increased next longs in NYMEX WTI by over 54k lots with a bulk of this increase driven by fresh positions. Elsewhere, Chinese crude imports increased by 2% in February to average around 10.3mln BPD, with a Y/Y increase of just under 22%. Furthermore, the country increased its share of Iranian and Venezuelan imports over February. Metals are largely on the front foot with gold (+0.4%) gaining further ground above USD 1300/oz with the recent fears surrounding and inverted yield curve between the US front-end and 10yr (Note: this has reversed) prompting additional demand in the yellow metal. Elsewhere, the twin cyclones which hit Australia over the weekend impacted mining and energy operations in the region, with reports stating some activities have been halted at BHP and Rio Tinto’s Pilbara mine. The mine is located in Western Australia and accounts for almost 40% of global iron ore production. The storms have now weakened to a category two, however there is no clarity on how long production will be halted and of any potential costs to the Australian economy.

US Event Calendar

  • 6am: Fed’s Harker Speaks in London on Economic Outlook
  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.4, prior -0.4
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 9, prior 13.1
  • 8:30pm: Fed’s Rosengren Speaks at Finance Conference in Hong Kong

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I hope you all had a good weekend. Only 4 weeks until we move into our new house and on Saturday my wife went out to dinner and casually mentioned our complete gutting and redesigning of our new place. She was asked whether we’d found room for a ‘wrapping room’? She tells me she looked very puzzled but apparently these are now a thing in some circles. Basically, it’s a room dedicated to wrapping presents and its filled with built in rolls of gift paper hanging off the walls and a workstation in the middle with posh sellotape and ribbons of different varieties having their own special structured place. When my wife first told me I had images of a room where a hologram of Kanye West might emerge from the shadows. Anyway, I can’t imagine how many rooms I’d need to have to feel that such a room was the next cab off the ranks. Probably around 3000 rooms! However, I’d love to hear from any readers with a wrapping room or who knows of anyone with one!

To stay with a rap, the mantra of last week was that “the Fed was dovish but the markets were sluggish!”. With volatility returning close to multi-year or all time lows in many assets classes in the first half of last week, the second half certainly jolted markets back to life. Firstly, the dovish Fed on Wednesday made people wonder what they saw in the future to make them so cautious. Yields collapsed and then Friday’s awful flash manufacturing PMIs in the core of Europe accelerated this and the US yield curve responded and inverted at more points on the curve, including some of those closely watched by the Fed. Indeed, the US 3m10y curve inverted for the first time since 2007 on Friday, and the spread between the 3m yield 18 months forward and the current 3m bill (an apparent favourite at the Fed) dropped to -25.9bps, its lowest level since 2008. The data and inversion led to the S&P 500 (-1.89%) experiencing its worst day since January 3, 2019.

It’s worth reminding readers of our “Yield Curve 101” note from last December (click here ). Throughout my career the US YC has been by a long distance my favourite lead indicator of the US economy. This note shows that the most reliable indicator of a looming recession has actually been a 2s10s inversion. Last week this flattened -3.0bps (-0.9bps Friday) to 11.8bps (below 10bps at the intra-day lows), its flattest level since December. We still haven’t inverted yet and the lag between inversion and recession is usually 12-18 months. The problem is we are a bad session or two from doing so. As a reminder, we don’t care why the curve inverts but instead think that in a capitalist economy like the US, animal spirits – and with it economic growth – are very linked to the steepness of the curve. Before last week, our view was that the curve may invert in the second half of 2019 and elevate the risks of a recession in H2 2020. However, the move over the last few days increases the risks of both arising earlier even if we haven’t yet changed our view. There will be those who say that this time is different and indeed the Fed’s Evans said today in a speech in Hong Kong that there has been a secular decline in long-term interest rates and in such an environment it’s more natural for yield curves to be somewhat flatter than historically was the case. He added that the US labor market is extremely strong at present and he’s not worried about inflationary pressures increasing.

To be fair, what happens next with US/China trade talks will probably have a big influence on the curve (and global growth) in the near term, so all eyes on US Trade Representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin trip to China for further talks on Thursday and Friday.

For now though Asia markets are following Wall Street’s lead from Friday with the Nikkei (-3.10%), Hang Seng (-1.77%), Shanghai Comp (-1.38%) and Kospi (-1.76%) all trading in a sea of red alongside most markets. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.44% extending Friday’s declines, while, yields on 10y JGBs are down -1.2bps to -0.092% the lowest since September 2016, when the BoJ overhauled its monetary policy to focus less on asset purchases. 10yr USTs are broadly flat.

Just before Asia opened, US Attorney General Barr said that Special Counsel Robert Mueller found no evidence of Trump colluding with Russia after his 22-month report on the matter was delivered late on Friday. The report did fail to exonerate President Trump on obstruction of justice even if the Attorney General said he didn’t find enough evidence to pursue an obstruction charge. This is clearly good news for the President but the battle will now be on how much gets released from the report. The Democrats will clearly be pushing hard to see the full report with the US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer already saying in a joint statement that “Congress requires the full report and the underlying documents so that the committees can proceed with their independent work, including oversight and legislating to address any issues the Mueller report may raise.” Further, Jerrold Nadler, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, has said in a tweet that, “in light of the very concerning discrepancies and final decision making at the Justice Department following the Special Counsel report, where Mueller did not exonerate the President, we will be calling Attorney General Barr in to testify.” So one to continue to watch.

As for Brexit, the situation is very very fluid and MV3 probably won’t come this week if there is no chance of it passing. Instead, we may move onto to indicative votes either voluntarily or forced upon the government. MPs will debate Brexit today and a series of amendments are likely coming, which will surely include a vote on indicative votes. The UK weekend press was rife with speculation that Mrs May was close to being toppled with a caretaker PM expected to oversee Brexit negotiations. However, as Sunday progressed the names discussed as potential caretakers distanced themselves from the process and we’re no further along on knowing whether Mrs May will survive the week. Mrs May convened a gathering of many prominent Brexiteers and some cabinet members at her country retreat Chequers yesterday and we’ll likely know much more today if anything came of that. In the meantime, in a front page editorial today, the Sun newspaper has called on May to resign to help seal her deal and deliver Brexit. The Telegraph had also reported over the weekend that PM May is only prepared to set out a timetable for her resignation once she is sure that she had the votes to support her Brexit deal. Overnight, the Telegraph’s political reporter said that PM May is considering offering indicative votes on Brexit options including her deal, no deal, a 2nd referendum, revoking A50 and a FTA customs union and single market. Sterling is trading down (-0.11%) this morning after falling -0.66% last week. At the lows on Thursday, as no-deal risks increased, it was down -2.15% for the week.

Back to Friday, now with the big news coming from the sharp downside surprise in the flash manufacturing European PMI data, which sparked a significant rally in global core rates and a selloff in equities. The Euro-area manufacturing PMI fell -1.7pts to 47.6, its lowest level since April 2012, being dragged down by the very weak print in Germany, where the manufacturing PMI fell -2.9pts to 44.7, the second lowest since 2009. The new orders sub-index did fall to a new post-crisis low at 40.1. Remarkably bad numbers. The composite euro area print fell -0.6pts to 51.3, which is consistent with quarterly growth around 0.15% qoq. That’s dangerously close to stalling speed, though it’s consistent with DB’s House View for Q1 growth of 0.1% qoq. France’s composite print fell -1.7pts to 48.7, dipping into contractionary territory with manufacturing -1.7pts to 49.8 and services -1.5pts to 48.7. Services in Germany and the Euro-Area held up well at 54.9 and 52.7 respectively so this is predominantly a manufacturing story for now. Can the recent mini China stimulus and upcoming trade talks save the day?

Anyway the data made it a difficult week as the STOXX 600 fell -1.33% (-1.22% on Friday) and the DAX shed -2.75% (-1.61% Friday). Bund yields fell -9.8bps (-5.6bps Friday) to -0.02%, sliding below zero for their first time since October 2016. The drop in yields weighed on financials, with an index of bank stocks declining -4.52% (-3.05% Friday). The S&P 500 and NASDAQ marginally outperformed, shedding -0.77% and -0.60% (-1.89% and -2.50% Friday), respectively. Other core government bond markets benefited from the flight to safety, with 10-year yields in the US and UK falling -15.5bps and -19.7bps (-10.5bps and -5.0bps on Friday) on the week.

One area of notable stress was in emerging markets, where an index of equities fell -2.93% on Friday for their worst session since October (-1.51% on the week). An index of EM currencies weakened -1.12% on the week, including -1.71% on Friday with losses led by the Turkish lira. The lira had its worst session since last August, depreciating -6.03% on Friday as the combination of slower European growth and evidence of capital outflows weakened the outlook. There are also suspicions that the central bank has been intervening to maintain the currency’s strength in recent weeks, and the CBT’s move to tighten liquidity by suspending its one-week repo auctions did not inspire confidence among investors. The one-week facility is nominally the main policy instrument, but officials steer financing into the more expensive overnight facility (at 25.5%) or the late liquidity window (27%) when they want to tighten conditions. The lira has recouped some of the Friday’s decline’s and is up +2.2% this morning with Turkey’s government announcing an investigation into JPMorgan and another probe of unspecified banks that the CBT reproached for stoking the lira’s Friday’s plunge.

Back to the Fed and on Friday, President Trump announced his intention to nominate Stephen Moore as a Fed Governor. It will be interesting to see how he is received by the Senate and by other Fed leadership, considering he recently called for the entire Fed Board to “be thrown out for economic malpractice.” Whether or not this added to market nerves on Friday its hard to tell but it is certainly controversial.

Believe it or not, the quarter draws to a close on Friday with a few interesting events on the agenda before it does. Outside of Brexit and the end of week trade talks mentioned earlier, we also have a number of central bank speakers, including ECB President Draghi (Wednesday), Federal Reserve Vice Chair Clarida and Vice Chair Quarles (both Thursday). Finally, a number of key data releases are expected, with the highlights including the German IFO surveys (today), Eurozone CPI data (Friday) and updated readings for Q4 GDP in the US (Thursday), UK (Friday) and France (Tuesday).

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 61.12 POINTS OR 1.97% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 590.01 POINTS OR 2.03%  /The Nikkei closed DOWN 650.23 POINTS OR 3.01%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.15%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7136 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 58.94 dollars per barrel for WTI and 66.90 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED 

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7136 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7187 / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA

The USA demands that China uses the USA’s cloud computing services something that China refuses to budge on

(courtesy zerohedge)

Another Trade-Deal Obstacle Emerges: China Refuses To Budge On Cloud Computing

With trade-related news in a rare lull, fears about an imminent global recession appeared to be at the forefront of investors’ minds last week, as the Fed took a surprisingly dovish turn, which was accompanied by another apprehensive cut to its GDP forecasts, and a spate of weak industrial production data out of Europe (Where the Continent’s largest economy has likely already slid into recession) stoked fears that what has been one of the longest expansions in modern history might reach its disastrous conclusion before the end of the year.

Amid the vertiginous twists in US equities – amid a spate of single-stock narratives (Boeing’s continued troubles, the decline in Nike’s North American sales, bank stocks being hammered by the yield curve inversion) – President Trump’s comments about a possible tariffs compromise on Friday didn’t raise too many eyebrows.

But what he said, though the White House once again declined to elaborate, is still important. Because it once again inadvertently illustrated just how far apart Washington and Beijing are. Despite the optimistic rhetoric, it appears that a final deal remains bewilderingly remote.

AWS

And as Robert Lighthizer and Steve Mnuchin prepare to return to Beijing this week to continue talks with Liu He, another obstacle in the increasingly fraught negotiations appears to have emerged.

By all accounts, Beijing hasn’t dropped its demands that the US lift most – if not all – of its trade-war tariffs on Chinese imports – immediately as part of the final deal. And while issues ranging from enforcement to currency manipulation to Chinese structural reforms have yet to be resolved, when it comes to the latter of these, the Financial Times on Sunday offered a little more clarity about a particularly important issue: digital trade.

As Amazon searches for still more growth markets, and Apple pivots to being a “services”-focused company, America’s tech giants are insisting that China lower its barriers to competition for American cloud computing providers. Per the FT’s sources, the issue is expected to be one of the main topics of discussion during this week’s meetings.

According to three people briefed on the talks, China has yet to offer meaningful concessions on US requests that it end discrimination against foreign cloud computing providers, curb requirements for companies to store data locally, and loosen limits on the transfer of data overseas.

The impasse over digital trade is among the issues expected to be on the table when Robert Lighthizer, the US trade representative, and Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, travel to Beijing on March 28 for meetings with Liu He, China’s vice-premier and leading economic official. Mr Liu is expected to return to Washington the following week, and the two sessions combined could be pivotal for the fate of the talks.

With North Korea already acting up, it’s worth considering that Beijing might be pulling strings to exert more pressure on the US, now that the trade-deal impasse has persisted for months now. On a similar note, analysts and traders have long pondered how Washington’s war against Huawei might impact trade talks.

Now, thanks to the FT, we might finally have an answer: As one analyst pointed out, as long as Washington continues to discriminate against Huawei, Beijing will have no political wiggle room to compromise on opening its markets to US technology companies. Because how can Xi justify welcoming US technology firms to the mainland when Washington is doing everything in its power to keep Huawei out?

The tensions between the two countries over Huawei, the controversial Chinese telecommunications network company that has been attacked by the Trump administration as a security threat, could be problematic as well. “It doesn’t make sense for Beijing to give on this while we have this global campaign to block Huawei,” said Samm Sacks, a cyber security and China digital economy fellow at the New America Foundation. “Why on earth would China say: ‘Hey, let’s open up for more cloud services in China?,” she said.

However, she added the Chinese might be more open to compromise on data flows, given that some of China’s expanding global companies are looking for ways to transfer data abroad. On the US side, it is unclear whether the Trump administration will go out of its way to favour the agenda of big technology firms, given the political backlash in the US against them from both Republicans and some Democrats. However, in the renegotiation of Nafta with Canada and Mexico, Mr Lighthizer mostly secured what the US technology sector was looking for.

Silicon Valley remains a key component of corporate America, so failing to win it any gains could weaken the enthusiasm for any deal among some business leaders and politicians. “The US negotiators had better get as much as they can or the deal will be ripped apart,” said another business lobbyist following the negotiations.

The message isn’t particularly subtle: If Trump thought the Chinese would simply ignore his comment that Huawei (specifically, the criminal case against its CFO) could be used as a bargaining chip in the trade talks, he was sadly mistaken.

We imagine more will be revealed during the coming week.

end
The USA is again provoking Beijing by sailing through the Strait of Taiwan
(courtesy zerohedge)

US Ships Again Provoke Beijing By Sailing Through Strait Of Taiwan

Beijing is already threatening retaliation over Washington’s expected sale of dozens of F-16s and tanks to Taiwan. But as if ties between the world’s two largest economies hadn’t already been sufficiently strained, the Navy and Coast Guard again provoked the Chinese leadership on Sunday when they sailed two ships – identified as the Navy destroyer Curtis Wilbur and the Coast Guard cutter Bertholf – through the Strait of Taiwan.

China

According to Reuters, the gesture, which is part of a redoubled US effort to flex its muscles near Chinese waters, should be interpreted – like other ‘freedom of navigation’ operations before it – as a sign of support for Taiwan, which is struggling with an increasingly threatening Beijing. The Chinese military has been holding more military drills and missions around the island, as President Xi has made bringing the wayward province back under Beijing’s thumb a top priority for his rule.

Sunday’s mission coincided with a trip abroad by Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, who will stop in Hawaii later this week following a tour of the Pacific.

The US was unrepentant about the mission, saying it was intended to demonstrate that the Indo-Pacific remains free and open.

“The ships’ transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the U.S. commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific,” the statement said.

“The U.S. will continue to fly, sail and operate anywhere international law allows,” it added.

Meanwhile, China’s foreign ministry said it had paid “close attention” to the meeting:

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told reporters in Beijing that China had already lodged “representations” with the United States, and that it had paid “close attention” to the U.S. ships.

China urges the United States to “cautiously and appropriately handle the Taiwan issue to avoid harming Sino-U.S. relations and peace and stability in the Taiwan strait”, Geng said.

Beijing has been ratcheting up the pressure on Taiwan, convincing several central American countries to switch their allegiance from Taipei to Beijing, and taking other steps to isolate the island diplomatically. However, Tsai has insisted that the Taiwanese would never accept a “one country, two systems” arrangement with Beijing like that of Hong Kong.

Yet, Beijing has warned that any country that interferes with its relationship with Taiwan could face the wrath of the Chinese military.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK/Sunday

Chaos supreme as there seems to be a coup underway trying to remove Theresa May from her position of PM.

Should be an interesting next 48 hours.

(courtesy zerohedge)

UK Coup Erupts: Theresa May Cabinet In Revolt, Plotting Her Imminent Overthrow

Theresa May may have days, if not hours, left as prime minister of the UK following a full-blown cabinet coup on Saturday night as senior ministers moved to oust the UK prime minister and replace her with her deputy, David Lidington.

According to the Sunday Times, following a frantic series of private telephone calls”, senior ministers agreed the prime minister must announce she is standing down, warning that she has become a toxic and “erratic” figure whose judgment has “gone haywire.”

The plotters reportedly plan to confront May at a cabinet meeting on Sunday and demand that she announces she is quitting. If she refuses, they will threaten mass resignations or publicly demand her head. The “conspirators” were locked in talks late on Saturday to try reach a consensus deal on a new prime minister so there does not have to be a protracted leadership contest.

Sam Coates Times

@SamCoatesTimes

Tory MPs now texting round saying Theresa May should go this week and a Gove / Lidington / Hunt triumvirate should sort out this mess

The Sunday Times, which reported that up to 11 cabinet minister confirmed they wanted the prime minister to make way for someone else, said that at six senior ministers want her deputy, David Lidington, to deliver Brexit and then make way for a full leadership contest in the autumnLidington’s supporters include cabinet remainers Greg Clark, Amber Rudd and David Gauke. The chancellor, Philip Hammond, also believes Lidington should take over if May refuses this week to seek a new consensus deal on Brexit. Sajid Javid, has agreed to put his own leadership ambitions on hold until the autumn to clear the way for Lidington — as long as his main rivals do the same.

The relatively unfamiliar – especially outside the UK – Lidington “is understood not to be pressing for the top job but is prepared to take over if that is the will of cabinet. He would agree not to stand in the contest to find a permanent leader.”

A cabinet source said: “David’s job would be to secure an extension with the EU, find a consensus for a new Brexit policy and then arrange an orderly transition to a new leader.”

Lidington’s friends want him to pledge to allow the cabinet to decide Brexit policy in order to get Hunt and Gove on board, urging the three cabinet heavyweights to work together to take control of the government.

Michael Gove, a leading Brexiteer in the 2016 referendum, and Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt also have some support.

Sam Coates Times

@SamCoatesTimes

So: there are signs tonight the cabinet have turned against May

But huge scrap over whether Gove or Lidington might take over. Big problems with both at this stage. So you couldn’t say there is “a successor”

So it remains the case it’s impossible to tell what will now happen

Hunt, the foreign secretary, does not support Lidington because he believes he would do a deal with Labour to take Britain into a permanent customs union with the EU, although he has lost confidence in May’s ability to take advice or deliver the deal.

Meanwhile environment secretary Gove has a leadership team in place and a raft of supporters who have been recruited in a series of secret dinners hosted by Mel Stride, the Treasury minister. Gove is said to be ready to support Lidington if others do but is sceptical that agreement will be reached.

* * *

As the Times details, the coup erupted “after a week of mistakes” by May, who delivered a television statement that alienated the MPs whose support she needs for her Brexit deal and then flirted with backing a no deal before performing a U-turn.

One cabinet minister said: “The end is nigh. She won’t be prime minister in 10 days’ time.”

A second said: “Her judgment has started to go haywire. You can’t be a member of the cabinet who just puts your head in the sand.”

Similar to recurring mentions of the 25th Amendment in the US, concerns about May’s mental and physical resilience are widely shared. Officials in parliament were so concerned about May’s welfare they drew up a protocol to extract her from the Commons if she collapsed at the dispatch box.

For now May has refused to comply with the coup’s demands, and the Times sources at Downing Street say May has not yet come to the conclusion that she should resign and is still being encouraged by her husband Philip to fight on. But she has also lost the confidence of key allies whose job it is to maintain party discipline. Whether she remains or quits, the current Brexit process remains irreparably broken: Julian Smith, the chief whip, believes there is no prospect of the prime minister winning support for her deal unless she announces that she is standing down so the second phase of Brexit negotiations can be conducted by a new leader.

Smith told May that she should offer to go in the summer. May last night won the backing of Gisela Stuart, the most high-profile Labour supporter of the Vote Leave campaign. Writing in The Sunday Times, Stuart said: “It’s not the deal we want but it is the only deal we have.”

But Smith and other senior Tories believe that May’s resignation is a prerequisite to securing the support of key Brexiteers Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab and Jacob Rees-Mogg for the deal — without whom it is doomed to defeat.

In a desperate last ditch move to save her seat, May’s team is said to be working on a plan to secure the support of the Democratic Unionist Party and Labour MPs by granting them a say on the final trade deal, to be negotiated after Brexit.

That appears to be too little, too late: MPs claimed that just one member of the whips’ office, Mike Freer, wants May to carry on.

In an astonishing challenge to her authority one senior whip, Paul Maynard, told May to her face that she should go because she was “betraying Brexit” and “destroying our party”. Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee of backbenchers, is “at the end of his chain” and also thinks May should resign.

Another cabinet minister said: “If the prime minister no longer has confidence of the parliamentary party, is badly placed to win over support of other parties and patience with her is almost run out among the EU 27 — then her continuing is a real problem.”

Meanwhile, in bad news for pound bulls, with May’s authority in freefall, Times sources said it is unlikely that the prime minister will hold a third meaningful vote on her Brexit deal this week. Instead she will be a passenger as MPs vote tomorrow on a motion that will let them seize control of Wednesday’s Commons business to host a series of “indicative votes”, where MPs can express a preference for alternatives to May’s Brexit plan. That could lead to pressure for a new referendum or a Norway-style deal that keeps Britain in the single market.

The most likely outcome, however, is even more chaos and confusion as in addition to having no real Brexit plans ahead of the (extended) hard Brexit headline in three weeks, the UK will soon be without a real leader.

* * *

And so with the UK facing a political coup, much remains unsure, with Times deputy political editor Sam Coates tweeting that:

  • are we really sure that it will be left to an “interim” PM to change direction of the county?
  • still clearly disagreement over timetable from different parts of cabinet
  • no contest involving Tory membership means massive row

Sam Coates Times

@SamCoatesTimes

So much unsure tonight

– are we really sure that it will be left to an “interim” PM to change direction of the county?

– still clearly disagreement over timetable from different parts of cabinet

– no contest involving Tory membership means massive row

Sam Coates Times

@SamCoatesTimes

So: there are signs tonight the cabinet have turned against May

But huge scrap over whether Gove or Lidington might take over. Big problems with both at this stage. So you couldn’t say there is “a successor”

So it remains the case it’s impossible to tell what will now happen

The report of the political revolt comes, ironically, just hours after hundreds of thousands of Britons poured into the streets of London demanding a second public vote.

TicToc by Bloomberg

@tictoc

MORE: Protester Jesse James said that the UK’s “Parliament doesn’t really know what the will of the people is anymore” while at the march

Embedded video

TicToc by Bloomberg

@tictoc

WATCH: Here is a bird’s eye view of the thousands of people in today’s in London calling for a new referendum pic.twitter.com/hbQkBEbmfX

Embedded video

Marchers,  accompanied by live performances from noted U.K. musicians including DJ Fatboy Slim, clogged the streets of central London as they walked from Hyde Park to Parliament Square to hear from the opposition Labour Party mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and deputy Labour leader Tom Watson.
Watson promised to back Theresa May’s twice-defeated political deal — breaking from the party’s position — in return for her  agreement to put the withdrawal accord to a public vote.

“I will support your deal, I will help you get over the line, to help avoid a disastrous no-deal Brexit, but only if you let the people vote on it,” Watson said.

And while most of the attendees favor Britain staying in the bloc, the rest of the UK reportedly remains sternly against going back to that other vortex of political chaos known as the European Union.

* * *

Appendix: for those who still pretend to bother about the Brexit process and where we currently stand, the following flowchart from AFP should give you a rough idea.

END

UK MONDAY

Fat chance that this will happen:  May offers Brexiteers a deal:  back the withdrawal agreement and she will resign

(courtesy zerohedge)

May Offers Brexiteers A Deal: ‘Back The Withdrawal Agreement, And I Will Resign’

The leading Brexiteers have made a lot of noise demanding that Prime Minister Theresa May should resign. But during a hastily organized Sunday summit at Chequers, the prime minister’s country house, May forced them to acknowledge a simple, if unpalatable fact: That the Tories, having already failed to oust her in a no confidence vote, have no obvious alternative for deposing May. 

Yet, in a sign that exhaustion with the interminable Brexit nightmare is swiftly setting in, the Prime Minister has reportedly decided to offer the group, which includes Boris Johnson (who penned a weepy Telegraph op-ed lambasting May and calling for the PM to step down), Jacob Rees-Mogg, Iain Duncan-Smith, Steve Baker, David Davis (the former Brexit Secretary) and others, a marginally attractive deal: Back MV3 – that is, a third meaningful vote on the withdrawal agreement (remember, the last two were defeated by historic margins) – and May will commit to resigning.

May

Some might ask: Hasn’t May already promised to resign? Yes, but not until some still-undetermined date before the next general election. But a bigger issue is that neither side has a whole lot of trust in the other. May has reportedly refused to serve up her own head until the vote has passed (for fear of an 11th-hour betrayal), while the ERG (tRobert Peston

@Peston

I am reliably told that @theresa_may told @BorisJohnson, IDS, @SteveBakerHW, @Jacob_Rees_Mogg, @DavidDavisMP et al at Chequers that she will quit if they vote for her deal, including the backstop they hate. But she gave no specifics. So there is not a lot of trust she…

Robert Peston

@Peston

would actually quit. And the problem is that even if she persuades all Tory ERG MPs to vote for her unamended Withdrawal Agreement, which she won’t (because although Mogg and his supporters may succumb to her call for loyalty, Baker and…

Robert Peston

@Peston

the Brexiter purists will resist her blandishments) and she also successfully woos Northern Ireland’s 10 DUP, she still does not have the numbers. May has alienated too many Labour MPs and Tory Remainer ultras (Grieve, Greening, Gyamah inter alia) to win the vote. So even with…

Robert Peston

@Peston

May offering herself for ritual sacrifice on the Brexiter altar, the ERG Brexiters and DUP may well say thank you very much, and vote against her anyway. Why should they compromise their principles, and alienate their loyal supporters, for May’s doomed project?

At this point, the backing of ERG leaders and the DUP might not even be enough to push the deal through. As Peston points out, the PM has alienated too many opposition MPs and loyalist remainers.

So, now that May has resisted yet another wave of pressure and communicated to her political antagonists that she isn’t going anywhere – at least, not yet – what is next on her agenda? Well, on Monday, there will be an emergency cabinet meeting to consider possibly holding a series of indicative votes to see what type of plan MPs might actually support (second referendum? A ‘softer’ Brexit? Straight-up revoking Article 50 and pretending the whole Brexit nightmare never happened?)

But regardless of what the cabinet decides, a cross-party group of rebel backbenchers, led by Tory MP Sir Oliver Letwin, might very well force one anyway by seizing control of the Commons – and they might succeed, in a vote that’s expected as soon as Monday evening.

However, the indicative vote plan has a major flaw (which is probably why it hasn’t already been tried, at least not in earnest): Despite all of the squabbling and intraparty infighting, there has never been a credible alternative to the withdrawal agreement. Which is one reason why, as Peston ponted out, Johnson and the other hard-core Brexiteers might be preparing for “the mother of all u-turns”: Possibly agreeing to back May’s deal in exchange for her resignation and commitments involving the talks over the future trade deal, which would take place during the transition period.

Robert Peston

@Peston

Having now read @BorisJohnson in @Telegraph, it is clear to me he is preparing ground for mother of all u-turns – and that he is poised to support @theresa_may’s deal if she brings it back for third meaningful vote, so long as she commits to resign after the deal is ratified…

Robert Peston

@Peston

and removes Olly Robbins from the team that negotiates the UK’s future relationship with the EU. The point is that the alternative he proposes, a no deal rupture on 12 April but the shock mitigated by a 33 month “implementation period”, is viewed in the Cabinet and every EU…

Whatever happens, May is expected to address MPs in the Commons just after 3:30pm London Time (11:30 am ET), with votes on Brexit amendments expected to take place at 10 pm (6 pm ET), as the countdown until April 12 – the new Brexit Day – continues.

end

ITALY/CHINA

Italy is going nowhere fast with Brussels and the EU.  This is why Italy’s decision to join the ‘one belt,one road’ initiative makes sense much to the angry of the uSA and EU officials.

 

Why Italy’s Decision To Join ‘One Belt, One Road’ Makes Economic Sense

Having brushed aside complaints from Brussels and the US, who fear the already heavily indebted and economically faltering NATO member might be walking into another “debt trap”, Italian President Sergio Mattarella welcomed Chinese leader Xi Jinping to Rome on Friday. And after posing for photos, Mattarella and Xi set the table for the expected signing of a Memorandum of Understanding that will make Italy the first EU member and G7 nation to sign on to Beijing’s controversial One Belt, One Road initiative (BRI), the AP reports.

Of course, the populist Italian government, already on thin ice with the globalist powers after defying Brussels and its fiscal rules by blowing out its budget deficit, didn’t exactly smooth over European anxieties by insisting that the partnership with platitudes like insisting that the economic partnership be a “two way street”.

Xi

Xi meets Mattarella

But Rome has little incentive to cater to Brussels on this. And Beijing, too, has everything to gain. By the end of his two-day diplomatic visit to Italy, Xi will have achieved a major geopolitical victory – a key vote of confidence in one of his signature initiatives – at a time when his government is struggling with slowing economic growth and a destabilizing trade war.

While Xi and Italy’s leaders are expected to sign the memorandum on Friday, the deal is happening against a backdrop of an increasingly adversarial EU, which just last week declared China an economic rival not to be trusted, as Beijing continues to make inroads in Central and Eastern Europe. What’s more, Xi is expected to leave Rome with billions of dollars in development deals covering everything from business cooperation to soccer. That is making Washington, which has spent much of the last year warning its allies about the treachery of Chinese firms and the threat that they might open a “back door” to Beijing’s spys, even more nervous.

BRI

But even as members of Italy’s ruling coalition, not to mention the political opposition, have expressed uneasiness about the deal with China, as the Financial Times pointed out, from a purely economic perspective, closer ties with Beijing could only benefit Rome. The reason? With Italy’s economy mired in a recession – one that Europe’s central bankers have so far refused to acknowledge – the relationship with Beijing could be an economic boon, at a time when Italy’s partners in the EU have offered nothing but disdain.

As it stands, Italy’s economic ties with China are relatively week. When it comes to FDI, Italy ranks only 76th worldwide in Chinese greenfield investment.

Screen

Despite being home to the largest Chinese population in Europe, Italy lags many of its major European partners in overall Chinese investment and construction.

Construction

Exports of Italian goods to China totaled a paltry $13 billion last year, a figure that was dwarfed by Germany.

China

Italy isn’t well-connected to China by shipping routes, either, which is probably why Xi has cited improving connectivity and building ports as a key objective of BRI in Italy.

According to domestic polling in Italy, most Italians see the deal as an opportunity, while a few still see it as a risk.

China

The deadly bridge collapse in Genoa last year raised alarm about the country’s aging infrastructure. Still, infrastructure investment has stalled at roughly 40% of its pre-crisis highs.

FT

In summary, Brussels might not approve of Italy’s deal, but they aren’t offering any alternatives to lift the Italian economy out of a recession. And with Italy’s economy expected to stagnate in 2019, the MoU is Rome’s most obvious lifeline.

 

end
Italy officially joins China’s Neocolonial Project
(courtesy zerohedge)

Italy Defies West As It Officially Joins China’s “Neocolonial Project”

With Brussels and Washington helplessly looking on, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Italian Prime Minister signed a historic memorandum of understanding Saturday morning in Rome that made Italy the first founding EU  member, and the first G-7 nation, to officially sign on to Beijing’s “One Belt, One Road” economic development initiative – one of President Xi Jinping’s signature ventures which many have called China’s shadow project to re-colonize the world’s poorer nations.

Along with the MoU, the two leaders signed development deals covering everything from port management, to science and technology, to e-commerce to soccer that were reportedly worth up to $20 billion.

Though OBOR (or BRI) has promised to strengthen trade links between the West and East, it has been derided in Washington and Europe as “debt trap diplomacy” and a neocolonial project by Vice President Mike Pence, and others.

Xi

Xi’s trip to Italy, the first leg on a six-day European tour, coincided with Brussels’ decision to take a more hard-line stance against the Chinese. During a review of its China policy last week, the European Union proposed “10 actions” to member states, including requiring “reciprocity” for market access, and highlighting purported national security risks stemming from Chinese investment in “critical assets, technologies and infrastructure.”

Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the European Commission and Brussels’ unelected bureaucrat-in-chief, described China as a “competitor, a partner, a rival,” during remarks on Friday.

In what appears to be a bid to assuage the growing trepidation in Brussels over China’s strengthening ties with Italy, and several eastern and central European states, Xi has reportedly asked Juncker and German Chancellor Angela Merkel to join him during a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron planned for Tuesday.

Meanwhile, to commemorate China’s first colonial anchor in continental Europe, during a press conference with Italian President Sergio Mattarella on Friday, Xi said “both countries should strengthen cooperation in infrastructure, ports and logistics, maritime transportation and other areas, so that the great potential can be realized.”

Among the 30 or so agreements signed were two port management deals between China Communications Construction and the ports of Trieste, situated in the northern Adriatic Sea, and Genoa, Italy’s biggest seaport. While Genoa is a long-established port, Trieste has the most potential for China, Italian government sources earlier told the South China Morning Post.

The port is strategically important for China because it offers a link from the Mediterranean to landlocked countries such as Austria, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Serbia, all of which are markets Beijing hopes to reach through its belt and road programme.

 

The Adriatic Sea port of Trieste is strategically critical for China.

According to SCMP, other deals signed cover areas including satellites, e-commerce, agriculture, beef and pork imports, media, culture, banking, natural gas and steel. The two countries also agreed to boost cooperation on innovation and science, increase bilateral trade and set up a finance ministers’ dialogue mechanism.

After the signing, Chinese media celebrated Italy’s “pragmatic” decision, and predicted that it wouldn’t be the last western power to side with Beijing.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT

Italy endorses Belt and Road, the first G7 country to do so, but I don’t think it will be the last. Attitude toward Belt and Road can be a litmus test to see to what extent Western countries can emancipate their minds and adopt pragmatic international thinking.

Financial Times

@FT

Italy endorses China’s Belt and Road Initiative https://on.ft.com/2FuX8az

Though Italy is directly defying Washington’s warnings about the ‘national security threat’ endemic to doing business with Chinese state-backed companies, with Italy’s economy mired in recession, and the outlook for growth dim, Beijing has offered Rome’s ruling populists something that Brussels and the West haven’t been willing, or able, to offer: An unprecedented economic boon, as we explained earlier today. Now, the question is, just how hard the US and Brussels will recoil at Italy’s ruling populists for allowing Beijing to claim a critical stake in the heart of Europe’s continent.

end

Germany/

Germany foils a plot stopping a planned attack to kil as many infidels as possible.

(courtesy zerohedge)

‘Islamist Attack Plot’ Foiled By German Police; 11 Arrested For Planning “To Kill As Many Infidels As Possible”

German police arrested 11 people on Friday during a series of raids on a terror cell planning an “Islamist terrorist attack” using guns and a vehicle, prosecutors said.

The goal, according to police, was to “kill as many “infidels” as possible.”

According to thelocal.de, the plan was foiled by a team of more than 200 police, which carried out simultaneous raids early Friday morning in several German cities near Frankfurt.

The raids turned up €20,000 ($22,640 US), several knives, narcotic drugs and computer files. The primary suspects are two 31-year-old brothers from Wiesbaden as well as a 21-year-old man from Offenbach.

The group had allegedly made contact with various arms dealers, according to alarabiya.netwhich added that they had rented a large vehicle – ostensibly for the attack.

The arrrests come one week after two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand were attacked by 28-year-old Australian Brenton Tarrant, killing 50. Authorities have been on high alert for both copycat and revenge attacks.

Germany, meanwhile, has had its share of Islamic terrorist attacks over the past several years.

In July, 2016, a 17-year-old asylum seeker armed with a knife and hatchet attacked several people on a train near Würzburg – injuring five people. The attacker was shot dead when he tried to attack Special Deployment Commandos with the hatchet. Authorities later discovered that the perpetrator, Riaz Khan Ahmadzai was in contact with suspected Islamic State members and had originally been asked to drive a car into a crowd of people.

In December 2016, a 23-year-old Tunisian, Anis Amri, killed 12 people when he stole a truck and drove it into a crowd in a Berlin Christmas market. Amri died in a shootout with police after he pulled a 22 caliber gun from his backpack, shouted “Allahu Akbar” (God is great), and opened fire, injuring an officer.

Anis Amri

In July 2016, fifteen people were injured when a 27-year-old Syrian suicide bomber identified as Mohammad Daleel killed himself outside a wine bar in Ansbach, Germany. 15 were injured.

In July 2017, a Palestinian failed asylum seeker, Ahmad Alhaw, stabbed several people in a Hamburg supermarket, killing a 50-year-old German man and injuring six.

 end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey

Interesting, on Friday regulators reported that Erdogan is burning through USA reserves like crazy.  JPMorgan upon learning on the huge withdrawal of foreign reserves, gave a press release recommending a 5.90 target for the uSA/Turkish lira.  Now Erodgan is launching a probe on the ‘manipulator’ JPM.

(zerohedge)

Turkey Blames JPMorgan For Lira Crash, Launches Probe; Erdogan Threatens “Manipulators”

On Friday, when the Turkish lira suddenly cracked, and suffered its biggest one-day drop since last summer’s crisis as public attention turned to the sudden plunge in the nation’s reserves and the bank’s unexpected 150bps equivalent tightening in policy, JPMorgan FX strategists poured gasoline on the fire when – as the lira was sliding – they published a note recommending a 5.90 target on the USDTRY.

As JPM analysts Anezka Christovova and Saad Siddiqui wrote on Friday morning recommending a lira short, Turkish authorities would likely “attach less significance to lira stability and reduce FX reserve support” for the currency following March 31 elections, resulting in further lira weakness, adding that the pace at which Turkey’s burning net foreign reserves is “unsustainable” and therefore “FX reserve support will abate post local elections on March 31, which could lead to USDTRY trading substantially higher.”

Despite (or perhaps due to) our sarcastic comment….

zerohedge@zerohedge

JPMorgan Recommends Going Long USD/TRY; Target at 5.90

ugh, time to go short

…. JPM’s note only added impetus to the selloff, and by the end of the day, the TRY has crashed almost 400 pips, closing 5.5% lower on the day as it almost hit JPM’s target, and sparking fresh panic that Turkey’s economy is once again on the edge.

Predictably, it also sparked Erdogan’s fury, with Turkey’s banking and capital markets regulators opening separate investigations into JPMorgan Chase the bank’s recommendation to short the lira.

Desperate to create a scapegoat for the sudden plunge in the currency, which as it turned out had since last summer been artificially propped up by local banks (while the central bank pretended not to intervene), Turkey delighted at the opportunity to blame the plunge in the lira, which is only just now restarting, on JPMorgan. As a result, the banking regulator BRSA said the JPMorgan analysts’ note had “misguiding and manipulative” content that resulted in volatility in markets and hurt the reputation of Turkish banks, according to state news agency Anadolu. The Capital Markets Board began its own investigation on similar grounds, according to a statement on its website.

According to Bloomberg, the disclosure of the two probes almost simultaneously suggested coordination between the regulators one day after the Turkish currency plunged as much as 6.5% against the dollar, leading retreats among emerging market peers. Panicked by the plunge, Turkey’s central bank was forced to announce a surprise tightening action in the middle of the day to stem the lira’s slump but it only made the selloff worse.

And in keeping with some quite bizarre banana republic measures, the banking regulator began another investigation against banks that manipulated their own clients to buy foreign currencies without naming the financial institutions that are targeted, Anadolu reported.

Finally just to make sure that the public knew the lira’s crash was due to evil “manipulators”, on Sunday Erdogan made it clear that anyone caught selling the lira would probably be thrown in jail…

  • ERDOGAN: MANIPULATORS TO PAY HEAVY PRICE AFTER ELECTIONS

… which in Turkey is not just a figure of speech but virtually an assured outcome. Meanwhile, the real question is how have more investors not realized that Turkey was and remains a quasi dictatorship, one where the rule of law will be changed and trampled any time it suits the “executive president”, whose power will become even greater after next week’s elections, and why is the lira not far lower than where it is now.

end
Israel
It is about time:  Israel will finally get the recognition of their annexation of the Golan Heights. For years Syrians would be shooting down from the Golan into the valley.  The Golan is very strategic.!
(courtesy zero hedge)

Trump To Sign Order Recognizing Israel’s Sovereignty Over Golan Heights

Via AlMasdarNews.com,

President Trump will be signing an order in the coming days to recognize Israel’s sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights region, Israel’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Yisrael Katz told Reuters on Sunday.

According to Katz, Trump will be signing this order on Monday, March 25th, but he did not go into specifics.

 

An Israeli soldiers stands guard at an outpost in the Golan Heights, via AFP

Earlier in the week, US President Donald Trump said via Twitter that it was time for the United States to “fully recognize Israel’s Sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which is of critical strategic and security importance to the State of Israel and regional stability.”

Prior to Trump’s tweet, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham made a trip to Israel, where he would later visit the occupied Golan Heights with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Responding to the US move, Secretary-General of the Arab League Ahmed Aboul Gheit announced that the league fully supported Syrian sovereignty over the territory.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

After 52 years it is time for the United States to fully recognize Israel’s Sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which is of critical strategic and security importance to the State of Israel and Regional Stability!

Israel seized the Golan Heights region from Syria during the Six-Day War of 1967; since then, they have maintained control over the area, despite repeated calls by the international community to withdraw.

Following the Six-Day War, the United Nations passed Resolution 242, which called on Israel to return the land to Syria; this was later followed by Resolution 497, which recognizes Syria’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

end

Expect an major Israeli assault on Gaza as Hamas fired a long range rocket that destroyed a house in the agricultural town of Mishameret, in the Sharon Valley

(zerohedge)

 

 

Major Israeli Assault On Gaza Imminent As Netanyahu Cuts Short US Trip

A major Israeli assault on the Gaza Strip is considered imminent after an early Monday morning long-range rocket launch from the strip struck a house in central Israel.

The attack destroyed a residential home in Mishmeret, an agricultural town north of Tel Aviv, which reportedly left at least seven Israelis injured, including children, after the family was able to escape the flaming building.

 

Destroyed residence in Mishmeret, Israel. Image source AP

Israeli TV images showed a badly damaged residential house which police said had also burst into flames as a result of the direct hit. Though Israeli’s foreign ministry was quick to identify the launch as originating in Gaza, the Palestinian side had not confirmed the attack.

Crucially, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly announced early Monday that he was immediately returning to Tel Aviv, cutting short his visit to the United States so he can “respond forcefully” to the rocket, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The WSJ also predicted that the rocket attack is likely to prompt “strong Israeli military retaliation” especially as it comes just two weeks ahead of Netanyahu’s most high pressure reelection campaign of his career, and as the prime minister faces down indictments related to multiple corruption charges and a rising opposition.

In a video message early Monday, Netanyahu said, “There has been a criminal attack on the State of Israel and we will respond forcefully.” He added, “In a few hours I will meet with President Trump. I will return to Israel immediately afterward.”

Embedded video

Israel Defense Forces

@IDF

We can confirm that is responsible for firing a homemade rocket. It flew a distance of 75 miles across Israel and then destroyed this home:

This further comes days after President Trump stated in a bombshell tweet that the US must formally recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, something Netanyahu expressed public gratitude for.

On Sunday Israel’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Yisrael Katz told Reuters that he expects Trump to formally sign an order recognizing such as early as Monday.

Air raid sirens wailed in the Sharon area, northeast of Tel Aviv shortly after 5am, sending residents running for their bomb shelters. The attack that followed destroyed a residential home in the agricultural town of Mishmeret, over 80km north of Gaza, injuring seven people, including a six-month-old baby, children aged two and three, and a 12-year-old girl. Army reservists have now been called up— The Independent

Netanyahu is expected to send a tough message to Hamas in response to the rocket attack, but perhaps more importantly in front of his domestic base so near the election.

Chief among Netanyahu’s rivals for the prime minister’s seat, centrist ex-general Benny Gantz, has recently challenged Netanyahu on foreign policy, saying the right-wing leader has “bankrupted national security”.

 

Prior file photo, via Reuters

Monday’s attack came less than two weeks after rockets were fired from Gaza toward Tel Aviv, resulting in a large-scale Israeli air attack on Gaza, after which Hamas leaders claimed the initial rocket launch was “accidental”.

With that prior incident, alongside increasingly violent clashes along the Israeli-Gaza border fence connected with ongoing “Great March of Return” protests, observers have noted the two sides appear to be hurtling toward another confrontation

end
ISRAEL  strikes back as they rock Gaza and target the Hamas command centre.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Israeli Airstrikes Rock Gaza, Target Hamas Command, After Netanyahu Cut Short US Trip

As predicted, a major Israeli assault on the Gaza Strip is underway after an early Monday morning long-range rocket launch from the strip scored a direct hit on a home in central Israel. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) struck targets across the strip throughout the evening Monday, and targeted the offices of Hamas’ supreme leader, though there were no early reports of fatalities, but Gaza’s Health Ministry cited at least seven wounded in the campaign.

Israel says it’s responding to an early Monday morning rocket launch from Gaza which destroyed a residential home in Mishmeret, an agricultural town north of Tel Aviv, which reportedly left at least seven Israelis injured, including children, after the family was able to escape the flaming building.

 

Buildings ablaze in Gaza City during reported Israeli strikes on March 25, 2019, via AFP

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced in the immediate aftermath of the prior Hamas attack that he would be returning to Tel Aviv from a visit to the United States, cutting short his trip to Washington, saying he would “respond forcefully” to the rocket attack, on the same morning President Trump signed an order officially recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, seized from Syria in 1967, in a move which Netanyahu also welcomed as “historic”.

“The [Israeli Defense Forces] has begun striking Hamas terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip,” the IDF confirmed in a statement.

Amidst the Israeli onslaught on Gaza, Israel opened public bomb shelters throughout most major cities, and its ‘Iron Dome’ missile defense systems appeared busy as Hamas responded to the Israeli assault with its own rockets. According to the AP, by Monday evening Hamas had fired at least ten rockets since the IDF aerial attack began.

“Israel will not tolerate this. I will not tolerate this,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said while meeting with Trump at the White House moments before he departed for Tel Aviv. “Israel is responding forcefully to this wanton aggression,” he said. “We will do whatever we must do to defend our people and defend our state.”

Embedded video

Israel Breaking@IsraelBreaking

Watch as Iron Dome intercepts rockets fired from Gaza moments ago. Dozens of rocket launches and interceptions are reported.

95 people are talking about this

Hamas leadership has been widely reported to be hiding in anticipation of the strikes. According to the AP, the IDF is now especially going after Hamas military commanders:

Several airstrikes rocked Gaza, including an explosion that destroyed the office of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. The Israeli military issued a statement confirming it bombed the building, which had “served as an office for many military meetings.” An earlier blast destroyed a multistory building in Gaza City that Israel said had served as a Hamas military intelligence headquarters.

It is expected that the IDF will lead a “strong Israeli military retaliation” especially as it comes just two weeks ahead of Netanyahu’s most high pressure reelection campaign of his career, and as the prime minister faces down indictments related to multiple corruption charges and a rising opposition.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Joyce Karam

@Joyce_Karam

Meanwhile bombing
• Israel hit security building for Hamas; More attacks underway
• Operation will go for hours
• Reports than Netanya residents going to shelters (Arabiya); Sirens

126 people are talking about this

Monday’s attack came less than two weeks after rockets were fired from Gaza toward Tel Aviv, resulting in a large-scale Israeli air attack on Gaza, after which Hamas leaders claimed the initial rocket launch was “accidental”.

With that prior incident, alongside increasingly violent clashes along the Israeli-Gaza border fence connected with ongoing “Great March of Return” protests, observers have noted the two sides appear to be hurtling toward another confrontation.

As of late in the evening on Monday local Middle East time, Hamas media began reporting unconfirmed statements that Egypt has successfully negotiated a cease-fire between Israel and the Gaza factions, though it’s unclear if or when the IDF will end its military operations.

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

GLOBAL EVENTS FROM FRIDAY

A good review of the major events that occurred on Friday and the weekend:

(courtesy Every Rabobank)

Rabobank: “No Reds Under Every Bed. No Putin On The Ritz”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Unhappy Friday

What a Friday that was. German manufacturing slumped badly; global manufacturing followed; yields tumbled; 10-year Bunds went below zero again for the first time since 2016; the US yield curve inverted 3M-10Y and 1Y-5Y, which has a pretty flawless record of calling US recessions (our call for 2020 already, of course); and the Turkish Lira collapsed again. So join the dots. The global economy is in real trouble long before central banks have come up with a cure for the new normal. Bonds have been right all along and equities have been wrong (as is always the case in my experience). And the knee-jerk ‘sell USD trade’ after a dovish shift by the Fed looks as silly as it always was – because if the US is in trouble, then everyone else is in far deeper doo-doo. Think second-order and third-order effects, people, not first-order.

Mueller Lite

Then we got the news that the Mueller Report has been handed over to the US Attorney General…and that was that. No more indictments. No impeachment of Trump. No proof of collusion. No Reds under every bed. No Putin on the Ritz. Unless something else appears related to it, the whole Mueller affair was, in short, the nothing-burger I have kept calling it in the Daily since it first started – and hence it has no market impact. Yet it isn’t a nothing-burger. As Rolling Stone’s acerbic Matt Taibbi –no Trump fan he!!– notes, this utter mis-selling of events by channels like CNN and MSNBC, as well as newspapers like The Guardian, means “Russiagate is this generation’s WMD times a million”, a reference to the scare-stories on Saddam Hussein’s “nukes” that led us to the 2003 Iraq War, and then to Iranian regional dominance and to ISIS, etc. In this case, the lasting damage is that after having screamed “Fake News!” and “Witch Hunt!” for nearly two years, President Trump can now Tweet “No Collusion. No Obstruction. Complete and Total EXONERATION. KEEP AMERICA GREAT!” and be legally correct. Which does nothing for the reputation of the media at a time when populism is not just knocking on the door, but is inviting itself in for tea and biscuits. On which front…

Moore is less

Far more significant, and of course overlooked by the same media rabidly obsessed with Russia and impeachment, was Trump announcing he will nominate Stephen Moore to join the Federal Reserve. This is an intellectual appointment on par with Larry Kudlow, not Janet Yellen. As one journalist reports it, the sequence of events ran allegedly like this: “Scoop on how this went down: At lunch last week, Kudlow showed Trump Stephen Moore’s op-ed in WSJ. Trump said: Why didn’t we make him Fed chair. Kudlow said you could name him to one of open seats. Trump said call him.”

Those who have seen my recent ‘The Age of Rage’ presentation, or suffered through the 17,500-word special report (which at a push can be folded into a panic room or bunker by those who know origami), will know that I raised the question of how markets would react if we got truly politicised central banks ahead under populism- for example, if Trump appointed son-in-law Kushner to the FOMC rather than making Middle-East peace. Just that scenario, but with Moore not Kushner, is now playing out. If Trump wins in 2020 —and with Mueller toothless why not?— then the next Fed is going to look a lot less “sound money” and a lot more “Mad money”. Except, of course, the irony is that the existing Fed has hardly covered itself in glory. It’s mountain of PhDs and experts failed to see the dot com bubble; blew a housing bubble; failed to see he GFC; failed to see QE would distort everything that matters; failed to see wages wouldn’t rise; failed to see they were raising rates when they didn’t need to; and are now finally right in moving towards cutting rates by accident not design. As such, would a Trumpy Fed actually do any worse? Clearly Moore is a further sign that monetary policy as we’ve known it is over and fiscal and monetary policy combined are going to be the way forward (as I argued back in 2017’s Heaven or Hell-icopters). In other words, shades of MMT – the modern monetary theory traditional economists like Paul “the Internet isn’t important/China isn’t important for world trade/I don’t know what endogenous money is” Krugman are scrambling to now pooh-pooh.

Is that threat negative for the USD? Yes. But it’s even worse for everyone else for many reasons – just ask Turkey. If things are so bad that we need to get that radical, the US will still be the place to be: and if everyone is heading for MMT then only a few currencies are going to be in international demand, topped by USD, as the unwritten rule of MMT is that it needs to sit alongside mercantilism and/or capital controls to work properly…and on that basis it’s not too many USD you need to worry about offshore, but too few. Potentially, Moore really is less.

Ter-May-nator

Today is yet another day where even with this kind of backdrop we focus on Brexit yet again, as PM May fights off what the media is suggesting will be a palace coup to topple her, given that while she stays on and robotically refuses to budge on her Red Lines, Hard Brexit looms. Parliament can do what it wants, but it needs to find a compromise it can live with this week, and have May then agree to listen to it, or off the White Cliffs of Dover the UK goes. Yes, a million people (and not Jeremy Corbyn) just marched through London to say “not in my name”, but that will have as much effect as the same number of marchers did in 2003 over the Iraq War unless May goes: but will she? The latest news is her ministers are actually rallying round her. How very “Russian”.

 
end
My goodness: over 10 trillion dollars worth of bonds in this world is trading with a negative yield.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Over $10 Trillion In Debt Now Has A Negative Yield

NIRP is back.

On Friday, when Germany reported disastrous mfg and service PMI prints, the 10Y German Bund finally threw in the towel, with the yield sliding back under zero for the first time in three years. When that happened, and when the 3M-10Y yield curve inverted in the US right around that time, just over $400 billion in global debt changed the sign on its yield from positive to negative.

As a result, the total notional of global negative yielding debt soared on Friday, rising above $10 trillion for the first time Since September 2017, and which according to Bloomberg has intensified “the conundrum for investors hungry for returns while fretting the brewing economic slowdown.”

Paradoxically, the amount of negative-yielding debt has nearly doubled in just six months, and confirms that the global asset bubble is back because as Gary Kirk, a founding partner at London-based TwentyFour Asset Management, said “money managers face increasing pressure to reprise the yield-chasing mentality synonymous with quantitative easing.”

“This obviously tempts those investors holding cash to move along the maturity curve — or down the rating curve — to seek yield, which is once again becoming a scarce commodity,” he said. “It’s a classic late-cycle conundrum.”

Despite the Fed’s renewed herding of investors into the riskiest assets, Kirk is so far “resisting the temptation” to snap up longer-dated credit obligations that will be the first to default when the next recession hits, and prefers duration bets in interest-rate markets.

Others won’t be so lucky: as we noted last Friday, the ‘reverse rotation’, or flood into fixed income instruments, is accelerating and fund flows confirmed the fresh panic for yield just as the specter of QE4 returns as investors in the latest week parked $6.6 billion into investment-grade funds, $3.2 billion into high-yield bonds and $1.2 billion into emerging-market debt, according to EPFR data.

“The extraordinary abrupt end to central bank hiking cycle + Fed paranoia of credit event is uber-bullish credit & uber-bearish volatility,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett wrote on Thursday night.

Meanwhile, negative yields mean that investors will lose money just by holding bonds to maturity, and are merely hoping that the Fed’s insanity will push prices even higher, allowing them to sell to other panicked bond investors at even lower yields down the road, which wouldn’t be that difficult if a global depression emerges, resulting in negative growth and/or outright deflation. But – as Bloomberg notes- along the way, risk assets may be entering the danger zone.

“We’ve never seen monetary easing so long, so broad, so big,” William Blair’s Brian Singer told Bloomberg. “What’s happened after every significant period of accommodation is a reckoning. This time the bubble is lower-rated credit and illiquid private assets.”

How or when this bubble ends remains unclear; one thing is certain: when Ben Bernanke said in 2014 that there will be no rate normalization in his lifetime, he was – perhaps for the only time in his career – correct.

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

Venezuela/Russia/USA

Venezuela may become a powder keg.  Venezuela is generally in the USA sphere of influence being in South America. However Russia and China have given huge loans to Venezuela.  The USA is hoping for defaults which will cripple China and Russia.

Let us see how this plays out…

FINIAN CUNNINGHAM | 22.03.2019 | WORLD / | FEATURED STORY

(courtesy Strategic Culture/F. Cunningham)

and special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us:

 

Russia Gives US Red Line on Venezuela

At a high-level meeting in Rome this week, it seems that Russia reiterated a grave warning to the US – Moscow will not tolerate American military intervention to topple the Venezuelan government with whom it is allied.

Meanwhile, back in Washington DC, President Donald Trump was again bragging that the military option was still on the table, in his press conference with Brazilian counterpart Jair Bolsonaro. Trump is bluffing or not yet up to speed with being apprised of Russia’s red line.

The meeting in the Italian capital between US “special envoy” on Venezuelan affairs Elliot Abrams and Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov had an air of urgency in its arrangement. The US State Department announced the tête-à-tête only three days beforehand. The two officials also reportedly held their two-hour discussions in a Rome hotel, a venue indicating ad hoc arrangement.

Abrams is no ordinary diplomat. He is a regime-change specialist with a criminal record for sponsoring terrorist operations, specifically the infamous Iran-Contra affair to destabilize Nicaragua during the 1980s. His appointment by President Trump to the “Venezuela file” only underscores the serious intent in Washington for regime change in Caracas. Whether it gets away with that intent is another matter.

Moscow’s interlocutor, Sergei Ryabkov, is known to not mince his words, having earlier castigated Washington for seeking global military domination. He calls a spade a spade, and presumably a criminal a criminal.

The encounter in Rome this week was described as “frank” and “serious” – which is diplomatic code for a blazing exchange. The timing comes at a high-stakes moment, after Venezuela having been thrown into chaos last week from civilian power blackouts that many observers, including the Kremlin, blame on American cyber sabotage. The power grid outage followed a failed attempt by Washington to stage a provocation with the Venezuelan military over humanitarian aid deliveries last month from neighboring Colombia.

The fact that Washington’s efforts to overthrow the elected President Nicolas Maduro have so far floundered, might suggest that the Americans are intensifying their campaign to destabilize the country, with the objective of installing US-backed opposition figure Juan Guaido. He declared himself “acting president” in January with Washington’s imprimatur.

Given that the nationwide power blackouts seem to have failed in fomenting a revolt by the civilian population or the military against Maduro, the next option tempting Washington could be the military one.

It seems significant that Washington has recently evacuated its last remaining diplomats from the South American country. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo commented on the evacuation by saying that having US personnel on the ground “was limiting” Washington’s scope for action. Also, American Airlines reportedly cancelled all its services to Venezuela in the past week. Again, suggesting that the US was considering a military intervention, either directly with its troops or covertly by weaponizing local proxies. The latter certainly falls under Abrams’ purview.

After the Rome meeting, Ryabkov said bluntly: “We assume that Washington treats our priorities seriously, our approach and warnings.”

One of those warnings delivered by Ryabkov is understood to have been that no American military intervention in Venezuela will be tolerated by Moscow.

For his part, Abrams sounded as if he had emerged from the meeting after having been given a severe reprimand. “No, we did not come to a meeting of minds, but I think the talks were positive in the sense that both sides emerged with a better understanding of the other’s views,” he told reporters.

“A better understanding of the other’s views,” means that the American side was given a red line to back off.

The arrogance of the Americans is staggering. Abrams seems, according to US reporting, to have flown to Rome with the expectation of working out with Ryabkov a “transition” or “compromise” on who gets the “title of president” of Venezuela.

That’s what he no doubt meant when he said after the meeting “there was not a meeting of minds”, but rather he got “a better understanding” of Russia’s position.

Washington’s gambit is a replay of Syria. During the eight-year war in that country, the US continually proffered the demand of a “political transition” which at the end would see President Bashar al Assad standing down. By contrast, Russia’s unflinching position on Syria has always been that it’s not up to any external power to decide Syria’s politics. It is a sovereign matter for the Syrian people to determine independently.

Nearly three years after Russia intervened militarily in Syria to salvage the Arab country from a US-backed covert war for regime change, the American side has manifestly given up on its erstwhile imperious demands for “political transition”. The principle of Syrian sovereignty has prevailed, in large part because of Russia’s trenchant defense of its Arab ally.

Likewise, Washington, in its incorrigible arrogance, is getting another lesson from Russia – this time in its own presumed “back yard” of Latin America.

It’s not a question of Russia being inveigled by Washington’s regime-change schemers about who should be president of Venezuela and “how we can manage a transition”. Moscow has reiterated countless times that the legitimate president of Venezuela is Nicolas Maduro whom the people voted for last year by an overwhelming majority in a free and fair election – albeit boycotted by the US-orchestrated opposition.

The framework Washington is attempting to set up of choosing between their desired “interim president” and incumbent Maduro is an entirely spurious one. It is not even worthy to be discussed because it is a gross violation of Venezuela’s sovereignty. Who is Washington to even dare try to impose its false choice?

On Venezuela, Russia is having to remind the criminal American rulers – again – about international law and respect for national sovereignty, as Moscow earlier did with regard to Syria.

And in case Washington gets into a huff and tries the military option, Moscow this week told regime-change henchman Abrams that that’s a red line. If Washington has any sense of rationale left, it will know from its Syria fiasco that Russia has Venezuela’s back covered.

Political force is out. Military force is out. Respect international law and Venezuela’s sovereignty. That’s Russia’s eminently reasonable ultimatum to Washington.

Now, the desperate Americans could still try more sabotage, cyber or financial. But their options are limited, contrary to what Trump thinks.

How the days of American imperialist swagger are numbered. There was a time when it could rampage all over Latin America. Not any more, evidently. Thanks in part to Russia’s global standing and military power.

 

end

This does not look good:  Russian troops arrive in Venezuela as they deploy S300 missile defense systems

(courtesy zerohedge)

Venezuela Military Deploys S-300 Missiles Following Russian Troop Arrival

Following the major weekend development of Moscow unambiguously asserting its ‘red line’ concerning potential US military intervention in Venezuela, for which Russia sent a military transport plane filled with Russian troops which landed in Caracas Saturday, new satellite images reveal a major deployment of S-300 air defense missile systems to a key airbase south of Caracas.

 

Image via AMN News

Crucially the Russian An-124 transport plane which touched down in Caracas on Saturday carried no less than Russian General Vasily Tonkoshkurov, identified as chief of the Main Staff of the Ground Forces and First Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Land Forces of Russia, accompanied by 99 servicemen and 35 tons of cargo.

As we reported the flight came just days after a high-level meeting in Rome last week, during which Russia reiterated a grave warning to the US – Moscow will not tolerate American military intervention to topple the Venezuelan government with whom it is allied – thus it appears Russia is taking no chances with its South American ally.

One of those warnings delivered directly by Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov to US “special envoy” on Venezuelan affairs Elliot Abrams is understood to have been that no American military intervention in Venezuela will be tolerated by Moscow.

And just a day following the contingency of Russia troops landing in Caracas, Maduro’s National Bolivarian Armed Forces have reportedly activated S-300 missiles after completing military drills that previously took place in February.

The professional monitoring service Image Satellite International (or Image Sat) has published satellite imagery it analyzed, showing additional S-300 missiles that have been deployed to the Captain Manuel Rios Airbase in the Guarico state of Venezuela.

No doubt, the timing of the S-300 redeployment is purposeful, meant to send a strong message to Washington, though it remains unclear just how active the Russian military will be in Venezuela.

Image Sat commented on the new images: “The deployment includes five launchers and a 9S32ME multi-channel missile guidance radar (MMGR). Venezuela increases its operational readiness due to regional tension.”

ImageSat Intl.@ImageSatIntl

: has put the into readiness, after conducting drills in February 2019 (as reported previously by ).

Perhaps paralleling the Syria situation, this could be the start of a scenario where the greater the proxy action and threats from the United States, the more Russia will slowly intervene at the behest of Maduro.

All of these developments signalling closer Russian-Venezuelan military-to-military cooperation in the face of Washington saber rattling come after three months ago the two allies held military exercises on Venezuelan soil, which the US at the time had condemned as Russia encroachment in the region.

But now with a high level Russian commander on the ground, and with Russian-made S-300s under the control of Maduro forces, it is unlikely that the US will act forcefully following the failed coup attempt of the past two months.

end

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1375 UP .0010 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES DEEPLY IN THE RED 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.12  UP .253 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3173    DOWN   0.0022  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3425 UP .0018 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 10 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  FALLING to 1.1308 Last night Shanghai composite closed DOWN 61.12 POINTS OR 1.97%/

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 590.01  POINTS OR 2.03% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.15% EUROPEAN BOURSES  DEEPLY IN THE RED/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 650.23 POINTS OR 3.01%  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED RED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 599.01 POINTS OR 2.03%

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 61.12 POINTS OR 1.97% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.15%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 650.23 POINTS OR 3.01% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1317.25

silver:$15.53

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.46% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.90 UP 3  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 96.62 DOWN 3 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  MONDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.30% UP 4  in basis point(s) yield from FRIDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.08%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.10% UP 3   IN basis point yield from FRIDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.39 DOWN 6    POINTS in basis point yield from FRIDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 129 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS  TO –.03%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.42% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1323 UP    .0026 or  26 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 109.83 DOWN 0.040 OR YEN UP 4 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3182 DOWN .0013( POUND DOWN 13  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 5 basis points to 1.3418

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed AT 6.7084    0N SHORE  (UP)

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7147  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.5775

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.08%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 2.39 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2,84 DOWN 2  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.50 DOWN 15 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 30.01  0.42%

German Dax : DOWN 17.52 POINTS OR 0.15%

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 9.28 POINTS OR  0.18%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 19.50 POINTS OR  0.21%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 19.16 POINTS OR 0.16%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 58.97 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 67.31 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    64.14  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.51 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 51 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.03 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  58.95

 

 

BRENT :  67.23

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.41… VERY DEADLY//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.86..VERY DEADLY

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1314 ( UP 17   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.97DOWN .010 (YEN UP 1 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.55 DOWN 11 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.3197  UP 1 POINTS FROM FRIDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.5775

the Russian rouble 64.03   UP .62 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 62 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar:  1.3401  UP 17 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7094  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7170  (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.08%

 

The Dow closed UP 16.56 POINTS OR 0.08%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 5.12 POINTS OR 0.06%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  16.56 CLOSED UP 0.08 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.609%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.601

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

S&P Swings Wildly After Breaching 2800 Support As Yield Curve Crashes

On the same day the MSCI Asia index posted its worst daily drop for 2019 as Asian markets caught up with Friday’s US pounding, it was another ugly day for US stocks which spent most of the day in the red, with the S&P breaching the 2,800 support level, although the Emini failed to drop below 2790 which has emerged as a new key resistance level.

One possible reason for the solid defense: as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott explained earlier, if and when the S&P dips below the “gamma” threshold sell level which is around 2777, both dealers and CTAs would see a pick up in selling, which would then make the market new “default” direction lower and potentially leading to a retest of the December lows.

Curiously, despite the Russell 2000 CTAs, which as McElligott noted earlier are currently 50.4% long, and would sell and flip to short under 1536.21 to get to -100% short, the small-cap index held on, and after some initial weakness, managed to stage a sharp rally into the European close, and successfully remained in the green as institutional buying appeared to offset systematic selling.

The Nasdaq closed just barely in the red, and even though most FAANG stocks were green, Apple disappointed, sliding after its major new services unveiling – including a new credit card, streaming video and a video game offering – disappointed traders, with the stock closing 1.3% lower.

But despite the sharp, if contained gyrations in US equities,the big action was in rates, where earlier today the 10Y yield plunged to the lowest level since 2017 shortly after 2pm, sliding below the effective fed funds rate of 2.40%, only to stage a modest rebound into the close.

Earlier in the session, Australia’s 10-year bond yield dropped to an all-time low and Japan’s hit the lowest since September 2016.

More concerning was the ongoing slide in the 3 Month-10 Year spread – the Fed’s favorite recession indicator – which briefly plunged as much as -7bps before recovering the drop to just -3bps.

It wasn’t clear what precipitated today’s aggressive buying across the curve, although according to Bloomberg’s Edward Bollingbroke, a reason for the move may have been convexity flows (as convexity hedging occurs as mortgage rates fall, making borrowers more likely to refinance; higher expected prepay rates reduce MBS duration, which portfolio managers can then offset via receiving in swaps. It was also a driver behind Friday’s Treasuries rally).

Whatever the reason for the aggressive purchases, the US Treasury “curve” is now anything but…

… and in fact looks like the infamous Nike swoosh, which itself was in the news today when it first Tumbled after Michael Avenatti tweeted he would hold a presser exposing criminality at the sport shoemaker, then quickly rebounded on news that the “creepy porn lawyer” had hoped to extort millions of dollars from the company, only to be arrested shortly after his tweet in the latest vindication for Donald Trump.

There were far less fireworks in the FX space today: after plunging the most since last summary, on Monday the turkish lira staged a powerful bounce as the USDTRY tumbled the most in almost a year, one day after Turkey threatened to probe JPM for its short lira recommendation and warned manipulators it would go after them personally.

The pound retreated as May said she doesn’t yet have enough support to put her Brexit deal to a vote in Parliament and will continue to try to convince MPs to back it. As lawmakers try to take control of the process, she’s wielding the threat of a long extension if her deal isn’t passed.

Meanwhile, the British pound retreated after fluctuating in early trading in the latest daily stop hunt, as Theresa May said she doesn’t yet have enough support to put her Brexit deal to a vote in Parliament and will continue to try to convince MPs to back it. As lawmakers try to take control of the process, she’s wielding the threat of a long extension if her deal isn’t passed. Yet while a plunge in the sterling would be welcome for May to reinforce the gravity of the situation, FX traders are increasingly ignoring the latest day to day developments in the neverending saga and instead focused on inflicting max pain to both longs and shorts.

Looking ahead the question is: will Asia continue its selling as the US bond market now screams global recession, and will the S&P finally breakdown as it breaches the next support level of 2,777 and if so, will it retest the December lows over 400 points lower, as so many bears have recently predicted.

END

 

MARKET TRADING/ 

This afternoon:  10 yr crashes to 2.375..something is seriously wrong with the global economy

(zerohedge)

Yield Curve Crashes: 10Y Yield Plunges Below Fed Funds With 3M-10Y In Freefall

Traders are watching in horror as the yield curve just took another sharp leg flatter (or more inverted as the case may be) as a sudden bout of 10Y buying sent the 10Y yield sharply below 2.40%, which as a reminder is the effective Fed Funds rate, sliding as low as 2.375%, the lowest since 2017, as the 10-year yield dropped as much as 6.4bps on Monday, after sliding 9.8bps on Friday.

This means that the curve is now inverted through the 10Y point: as shown in the chart below, all coupon tenors from 2Y to 10Y are now below the rate guaranteed by the Federal Reserve.

The 10Y yield has tumbled more than 20bp since the FOMC on March 20 cut its forecasts for growth and inflation and said it no longer expected to raise interest rates this year and would stop its balance-sheet run-off in September.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s favorite recession indicator – the spread between the 3 Month Bill and the 10Y Treasury – has plunged further into negative territory, and at last check had dropped as low as -7bps, as the next US recession is now barrelling toward the US.

As a result, the US Treasury yield “curve” now looks like… the Nike swoosh

Not surprisingly these recession alerts have hit risk assets, with stocks sliding as sentiment turns increasingly sour, not helped by Apple’s announcement that it will compete not only with banks, with the launch of its Apple Card 3% cash back, no fee credit card, but also with gaming stock companies which plunged after Apple unveiled a new arcade and gaming service, and lastly hitting Roku and Netflix as Apple discusses its “new” TV App which will offer HBO, Showtime and Starz on demand.

The fear of course is that with Apple now encroaching on several key “service” markets, this will lead to another bout of deflation as a new scramble to gain and preserve market share will take place as company after company slashes costs to remain competitive with the world’s most valuable company.

ii)Market data/

 

end

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Low interest rate and QE has caused inequality among investors as the wealthy can gain access to yield, something that the ordinary investor cannot.

A good commentary by Mises as they pound the table that the Fed has given up and we should be ready for increasing more QE

(courtesy McMaken/Mises)

 

The Fed Has Given Up: Get Ready For More QE

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate unchanged. Overall, the FOMC signaled it has made a dovish turn away from the promised normalization of monetary policy which the Fed has promised will be implemented “some day” for a decade. Although the Fed began to slowly raise rates in late 2016 — after nearly a decade of near-zero rates — the target rate never returned to even three percent, and thus remains well below what would have been a more normal rate of the sort seen prior to the 2008 financial crisis.

Much of the Fed’s continued reluctance to upset the easy-money apple cart comes from growing concerns over the strength of the economy. Although job growth numbers have been high in recent years — and this has been assumed to be proof of a robust economy — other indicators point toward less strength. Workforce participation numbers, wage growth, net worth numbers, auto-loan delinquencies and other indicators suggest many Americans are in a more precarious position than headlines might suggest.

The Fed’s refusal to follow through on raising rates, however, has highlighted this economic weakness, and today’s front-page headline in the Wall Street Journal reads: “Growth Fears to Keep Fed on Hold”

Abandoning Plans to Reduce the Balance Sheet

For similar reasons, the Fed has also signaled it won’t be doing much about it’s enormous balance sheet which ballooned to over four trillion dollars in the wake of the financial crisis. Faced with enormous amounts of unwanted assets such as mortgage-backed securities, the Fed began buying up these assets both to prop up — and bail out — banks and to produce an artificially high price for debt of all sort.

This kept market interest rates low while increasing asset inflation — all of which is great for both Wall Street and for the US government which pays hundreds of billions in interest on federal debt.

At best, “total balance sheet will be around $3.8 trillion, down from $4.5 trillion at its peak.” Moreover, “the Fed will soon be a net buyer of Treasurys once again,” analysts said, and some estimate “the Fed is on course to be buying $200 billion of net new Treasurys by the second half of 2020.”

Put simply: the days of quantitative easing are back, and we’re not even in a recession yet.

Some observers might simply respond with “big deal, the economy’s growing, and better yet, the Fed has given us both growth and little inflation.”

But things are not all as pleasant as they seem.

Problems with Easy-Money Policy

First of all, even by the Fed’s own measures, inflation isn’t as subdued as the headline “core inflation” or CPI measure suggests. According to the Fed’s “Underlying Inflation Gauge” which takes a broader view beyond the small basket of consumer goods used for the CPI, inflation growth over the past year has returned to the elevated levels found back in 2005 and 2006.

This hasn’t been great for consumers, and it’s been especially problematic when coupled with ultra-low interest rates. The low interest rates are a problem because people of ordinary means — i.e., the non-wealthy — don’t have the ability to access the high yield investments that wealthier investors do.

Rising Inequality

Earlier this week, finance researcher Karen Petrou explained the problem that comes from ultra-low rates which lead to yield-chasing for the wealthy:

When interest rates are ultra-low, wealthy households with asset managers acting on their behalf can play the stock market to beat zero or even negative returns. We’ve shown in several recent blog posts how wide the wealth inequality gap is and how disparate wealth sources help to make it so. However, even where low-and-moderate income households can get into the market, their investment advisers should not and often cannot chase yields. As a result, ultra-low rates mean negligible or even negative return.

Thus, ordinary people are faced with rising asset prices — driven in part by the Fed’s balance sheet purchases — while also finding themselves unable to save in way that keeps up with inflation.

Meanwhile, the wealthy reap the most benefits from Fed policy as they’re able to more effectively engage in yield-chasing.

Ordinary people get the short end of the stick from Fed policy in other ways. Petrou continues:

Historically, pension funds and insurance companies have invested only in the safest assets. These are now in scarce supply due in large part to QE andcomparable programs by central banks around the world . Pension plans and life-insurance companies increasingly have two terrible choices: to play it safe and become increasingly unable to honor benefit obligations or to make big bets and hope for the best. Under-funded pension plans are so great a concern in the U.S. that the agency established to protect pensioners from this risk, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, faces its own financial challenges . Yield-chasing life insurers are also a prime source of potential systemic risk.

Middle class people who have been told for decades to rely on pensions are now imperiled by Fed policy as well.

Not surprisingly, this has led to rising income inequality. While some free-market advocates tend to dismiss inequality as an unimportant metric, this is not a good approach when we’re talking about public policy. Fed policy — and resulting inequality — does not reflect natural trends arising from market transactions. Monetary policy is something imposed on markets by policymakers. And that’s what’s going on when we witness rising inequality due to the Fed’s monetary policy.

This has been going on since the late 1980s when Alan Greenspan relentlessly opened the easy-money spigot to spur economic growth throughout the 1990s. But, there were problems that resulted, as noted by Daniell DiMartino-Booth:

[A]t the National Association for Business Economics recent annual conference, University of California-Berkeley economics professor Gabriel Zucman presented his findings on the widening divide between the “haves” and “have nots” in the U.S. His conclusion: “Both surveys and tax data show that wealth inequality has increased dramatically since the 1980s, with a top 1 percent wealth share around 40 percent in 2016 vs. 25 – 30 percent in the 1980s.” Zucman also noted that increased wealth concentration has become a global phenomenon, albeit one that is trickier to monitor given the globalization and increased opacity of the financial system.

Defenders of ultra-low policy tend to claim low rates aren’t the real culprit here because even middle-class buyers can take advantage of easy money.

But experience suggests this hasn’t been the case. Part of the problem is that banking regulations handed down by the Fed and other federal regulators make loaning to smaller enterprises and lower-income households less attractive. Writes Petrou:

But, wasn’t there a burst of lower-rate mortgage refinancings that allowed households to reduce their debt burden and thus accumulate wealth? Did low rates allow higher-risk households at least to reduce their mortgage debt through refinancings? Again, low-and-moderate income households were left behind. They continued to seek refis after the financial crisis ebbed, but subprime borrowers current on their loans regardless of loan-to-value (LTV) ratios were less likely than prime or super-prime borrowers to receive refi loans even though higher-scored borrowers may or may not have been current and lower rates enhance repayment potential.

The overall effect suggests the accelerating reliance on quantitative easing and near-zero interest rates has been great for some Wall Street hedge fund managers — but for those at the low end of the lending and saving apparatus, things are even more constraining than ever. It’s hard to get a loan, and it’s also hard to save.

But at least the aggregate numbers are great, right?

Well, the Fed can’t brag about even that. A policy that favors billionaires might work on paper, of course, so long as the aggregate numbers point toward sizable growth. But even those numbers are so iffy as to prompt growth fears at the FOMC, and to ensure that the Fed puts an end to its promises to return policy to something that might be called normal.

As it is, it looks like we should expect a continuation of the policies which have coincided with both an unimpressive economy and rising inequality.

If that’s not evidence of the Fed’s failure, it’s hard to imagine what is.

END

I knew this was going to happen:  wealthy baby boomers bought huge homes and now that they want to downsize they cannot as there is nobody that can afford the home coupled with high taxes and high maintenance costs:

(courtesy Mike Shedlock/Mishtalk)

‘Too Big To Sell’ – Boomers Trapped In McMansions As Retirement Looms

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Wealthy baby boomers are trapped in homes that are too big to sell. They want to downsize but can’t get what they paid.

This was guaranteed to happen, and did. Baby boomers and retirees built large, elaborate dream homes only to find that few people want to buy them.

Please consider a Growing Problem in Real Estate: Too Many Too Big Houses.

Large, high-end homes across the Sunbelt are sitting on the market, enduring deep price cuts to sell.

That is a far different picture than 15 years ago, when retirees were rushing to build elaborate, five or six-bedroom houses in warm climates, fueled in part by the easy credit of the real estate boom. Many baby boomers poured millions into these spacious homes, planning to live out their golden years in houses with all the bells and whistles.

Now, many boomers are discovering that these large, high-maintenance houses no longer fit their needs as they grow older, but younger people aren’t buying them.

Tastes—and access to credit—have shifted dramatically since the early 2000s. These days, buyers of all ages eschew the large, ornate houses built in those years in favor of smaller, more-modern looking alternatives, and prefer walkable areas to living miles from retail.

The problem is especially acute in areas with large clusters of retirees. In North Carolina’s Buncombe County, which draws retirees with its mild climate and Blue Ridge Mountain scenery, there are 34 homes priced over $2 million on the market, but only 16 sold in that price range in the past year, said Marilyn Wright, an agent at Premier Sotheby’s International Realty in Asheville.

The area around Scottsdale, Ariz., also popular with wealthy retirees, had 349 homes on the market at or above $3 million as of February 1—an all-time high, according to a Walt Danley Realty report. Homes built before 2012 are selling at steep discounts—sometimes almost 50%, and many owners end up selling for less than they paid to build their homes, said Walt Danley’s Dub Dellis.

Kiawah Island, a South Carolina beach community, currently has around 225 houses for sale, which amounts to a three- or four-year supply. Of those, the larger and more expensive homes are the hardest to sell, especially if they haven’t been renovated recently, according to local real-estate agent Pam Harrington.

The problem is expected to worsen in the 2020s, as more baby boomers across the country advance into their 70s and 80s, the age group where people typically exit homeownership due to poor health or death, said Dowell Myers, co-author of a 2018 Fannie Mae report, “The Coming Exodus of Older Homeowners.” Boomers currently own 32 million homes and account for two out of five homeowners in the country.

Not Just the South

It’s not just big houses across the Sunbelt. It’s big houses everywhere. If anything, I suspect it’s worse in the north. There is an exodus of people in high tax states like Illinois who want the hell out.

Already big homes were hard to sell. Now these progressive states are raising taxes.

Triple Whammy

  1. Millennials trapped in debt and cannot afford them
  2. Millennials wouldn’t buy them anyway because tastes have changed.
  3. Taxes are driving people away from states like Illinois

Good luck with that.

For the plight of Illinoisans, please consider Illinois’ Demographic Collapse: Get Out As Soon As You Can.

END

This is going to hurt trade and commerce:  dozens of tankers are stranded in Houston due to the fire and chemical leak. Also cancer producing benzene has leaked into the waters

(courtesy zerohedge)

Dozens Of Tankers Stranded In Houston Ship Channel After Chemical Leak Contamination

The Houston Ship Channel — already closed for days since last Friday afternoon a large-scale contamination of leaked chemicals from the Intercontinental Terminals Co. (ITC) fire spilled Benzene and other dangerous chemicals into and over waterway (especially via toxic smoke clouds could remain shut to regular through traffic for several more days, the Coast Guard has confirmed, trapping dozens of inbound and outbound oil and LPG tankers.

At the end of last week’s days-long massive fire engulfing multiple petrochemical tanks at the oil facility, emergency crews led by the Coast Guard noticed elevated Benzene levels in the area, and even what was described as a “benzene plume” hovering above the water. This as Deer Park area residents complained of illnesses ranging from nausea to headaches to irritation and burning in the skin, eyes, nose and throat from the disaster which began on March 17.

And though the ship channel is not a source for drinking water, the stretch of a roughly 2-mile-long no-go zone near the ITC facility had been shut down to boat traffic due to the potential danger to crew members from a cloud of cancer-causing benzene from the onshore tank fire, perBloomberg:

The U.S. Coast Guard is forbidding vessel traffic on a stretch of the key industrial shipping route after a wall collapse and fire at Intercontinental Terminals Co.’s already-damaged chemical storage complex on Friday. A mix of toxic gasoline ingredients, firefighting foam and dirty water flowed from the site into the channel, and a benzene plume above the water poses a threat to ship crews, said Coast Guard Capt. Kevin Oditt.

Fox Business has quoted a Coast Guard official who said Monday morning it could be “several more days” before a key section of the Houston Ship Channel will be opened up amid continuing clean up efforts.

The Coast Guard says it’s currently testing the possibility that a limited number of ships could be let through if they undergo a decontamination process:

The vessels are being decontaminated as they move through the roughly seven-mile portion of the Houston Ship Channel near the Lynchburg Ferry, extending from Tucker Bayou, where the ITC facility is located, to Houston Ship Channel light 116.

It’s a test to see when the Houston Ship Channel could be reopened.

Local sources cited that roughly half of the Ship Channel, vital to multiple industrial and energy sectors, was cut off from the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Intracoastal Waterway, leaving some 31 ships stranded and waiting to move into or past the affected area as of Monday morning.

Later into the afternoon on Monday reports counted some 60 ships as blocked from getting through by emergency management operations.

 

Houston ship channel near the ITC facility in Deer Park. Image source: Houston Chronicle via AP

The Houston Chronicle reports that “due to the closure’s central location, and no detours around it, roughly half of the Steel and energy companies are among those likely to be affected.”

Days into last week’s blaze which sent a plume of smoke a half mile into the air, city officials had released a statement alerting the public to elevated levels of benzene, described as “a colorless, sweet-smelling chemical that can be derived from natural gas, crude oil or coal, can cause cancer, infertility and birth defects in the developing fetus of pregnant women among other things” according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Benzene is a known carcinogen which can cause devastating health effects based on various levels of exposure. Residents have become increasingly anxious and angry with ITC company representatives over what the Houston Chronicle described as “volatile compounds sitting in damaged tanks at the petroleum storage facility or streaming into nearby waterways.”

 

The week long blaze released elevated Benzene levels into the air, via the AP

It is as yet unclear the full economic impact of the ship channel’s closure, as Claims Journal notes of one major logistics company, “LyondellBasell Industries N.V.’s Channelview and Bayport chemical facilities are experiencing constrained barge and vessel logistics because of the closure but are operating, spokesman Chevalier Gray said in an email. The company is evaluating the event’s effect on production.”

As of Monday afternoon, shipping agency Moran Shipping summarized the following while noting outbound ships could start to move first:

Vessel traffic has begun to loosen up slightly today. One ship has moved through the spill area inbound today, while another has been boarded inbound, according to shipping agency Moran Shipping. Another vessel sailed outbound, passed the spill area, and headed to a decontamination berth. By around 3:30pm ET ships with freshwater drafts under 34ft will start moving outbound, but will be inspected for contamination before being allowed to continue, according to Moran.

Oil facilities inside the spill area include Houston Fuel Oil, Jacintoport, Vopak, and ITC. The Houston Pilots plan to prioritize outbound sailings from the port, once ships are deemed able to move through the spill area without contamination, said Moran.

ITC response crews are still working on pumping thousands of barrels worth of benzene-laced refining byproduct and other chemical compounds out of the breached and damaged storage tanks since the fire was finally extinguished by the weekend.

SWAMP STORIES

Mueller report: no collusion/no obstruction of justice!!

(courtesy zerohedge)

Impeachment Odds Implode As Mueller Report Clears Trump Of Collusion

Shortly after a summary of the Mueller Report was submitted to Congress by Attorney General William Barr clearing President Trump of collusion with Russia, the odds of impeachment plummeted.

 

Odds of Trump impeachment (source: PredictIt)

After nearly two years, Mueller’s team of approximately 40 FBI agents issued over 2,800 subpoenas, executed “nearly 500 search warrants,” and “obtained over 230 orders for communication records. They also issued 13 requests to foreign governments for evidence and interviewed approximately 500 witnesses.

Specifically, “The Special Counsel’s investigation did not find that the Trump campaign or anyone associated with it conspired or coordinated with Russia in its efforts to influence the 2016 Presidential election.”

And while the Mueller summary leaves the door open for AG Barr to determine whether Trump obstructed justice, Barr sees no obstruction – writing in conjunction with Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein that they “concluded that the evidence developed during the Special Counsel’s investigation is not sufficient to establish that the President committed an obstruction-of-justice offense.”

Trump’s odds of becoming the 2020 Republican nominee spiked as well, and his chances of winning the next election jumped.

 

Odds of Trump becoming GOP nominee in 2020

end

It starts:  now that Trump et al have been cleared of the perpetuated hoax of Russian collusion, the House Intelligence committees are now ready for criminal referrals to the Attorney General Barr.

buckle your safety belt..this is going to be quite a bumpy ride..

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

House Intel Readies Criminal Referrals For Clinton Operatives Who “Perpetuated This Hoax”

Just hours after President Trump proclaimed It began illegally. And hopefully somebody is going to look at the other side. This was an illegal takedown that failed

It seems the “other side” may just get what they deserved.

Source: GrrrGraphics

Here is Nunes from Friday…

Embedded video

Nick Short

@PoliticalShort

“This is the unravelling of the biggest political scandal in American history…remember, this dates back to late 2015, early 2016 & this began as nothing more/nothing less than a Clinton/Obama operation with a bunch of dirty cops at the FBI & career DOJ officials.” –@DevinNunes

Rep. Devin Nunes reportedly will make criminal referrals to Attorney General Bill Barr on FBI, DOJ officials who perpetrated this hoax.

Paul Sperry@paulsperry_

President Trump called the investigation of him and his advisers “illegal.” That is not hyperbole. What the Obama FBI and DOJ pulled was worse than Watergate. AG Barr must now hold the dirty agents to account by impaneling a grand jury investigation of the investigators.

Nunes earlier tweeted: “The Russia investigation was based on false pretenses, false intel, and false media reports. House Intel found a yr ago there was no evidence of collusion, and Democrats who falsely claim to have such evidence have needlessly provoked a terrible, more than two-year-long crisis.”

Devin Nunes

@DevinNunes

The Russia investigation was based on false pretenses, false intel, and false media reports. House Intel found a yr ago there was no evidence of collusion, and Democrats who falsely claim to have such evidence have needlessly provoked a terrible, more than two-year-long crisis.

And now Sperry is reporting that Nunes is preparing criminal referrals: “House Intel has evidence Clinton operatives & hi-level FBI & DOJ officials started Trump-Russia investigation in “late 2015/early 2016″ &that House GOP will be making criminal referrals to AG”

Paul Sperry@paulsperry_

BREAKING:Rep. Devin Nunes says House Intel has evidence Clinton operatives & hi-level FBI & DOJ officials started Trump-Russia investigation in “late 2015/early 2016” &that House GOP will be making criminal referrals to AG Barr for officials who “perpetuated this hoax” for 3+ yrs

The ‘coup’ comes full circle…

Source: GatewayPundit

How long before #LockThemUp starts trending?

END

Kim Strassel of the Wall Street Journal now urges the probe of the real scandal..the democrats trying to overthrough the duly elected President of the USA

(zerohedge/kim Strassel./WSJ

With Mueller Done, WSJ Urges “Probe The Real Scandal”

Just hours after reports that Rep. Devin Nunes will refer criminal charges against Clinton operatives & high-level FBI & DOJ officials for perpetuating the Russiagate hoax for over three years, The Wall Street Journal’s outspoken voice of reason, Kimberley Strassel, stresses that Americans deserve a full accounting of the missteps of Comey and the FBI.

Source: GrrrGraphics

Attorney General William Barr has reported to Congress that special counsel Robert Mueller has cleared President Trump and his campaign team of claims of conspiring with Russia during the 2016 election. This is more than an exoneration. It’s a searing indictment of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, as well as a reminder of the need to know the story behind the bureau’s corrosive investigation.

Mr. Mueller’s report likely doesn’t put it that way, but it’s the logical conclusion of his no-collusion finding. The FBI unleashed its powers on a candidate for the office of the U.S. presidency, an astonishing first. It did so on the incredible grounds that the campaign had conspired to aid a foreign government. And it used the most aggressive tools in its arsenal—surveillance of U.S. citizens, secret subpoenas of phone records and documents, even human informants.

The wreckage is everywhere. The nation has been engulfed in conspiracy theories for years. A presidency was hemmed in by the threat of a special counsel. Citizens have gone to jail not for conspiracy, but for after-the-fact interactions with Mr. Mueller’s team. Dozens more have spent enormous amounts of money and time defending their reputations.

None of this should ever have happened absent highly compelling evidence—from the start—of wrongdoing. Yet from what we know, the FBI operated on the basis of an overheard conversation of third-tier campaign aide George Papadopoulos, as well as a wild “dossier” financed by the rival presidential campaign. Mr. Mueller’s no-collusion finding amounts to a judgment that there never was any evidence. The Papadopoulos claim was thin, the dossier a fabrication.

Which is all the more reason Americans now deserve a full accounting of the missteps of former FBI Director James Comey and his team—in part so that this never happens again.

That includes the following:

What “evidence” did the FBI have in totality?

What efforts did the bureau take to verify it?

Did it corroborate anything before launching its probe?

What role did political players play?

How aware was the FBI that it was being gulled into a dirty-trick operation, and if so, how did it justify proceeding?

How intrusive were the FBI methods?

And who was harmed?

If Mr. Mueller has done his job properly, his report will address some of this. His team would have had to look into the sources of the allegations as part of determining the documents’ (lack of) veracity. A Mueller report that doesn’t mention the dossier and its political provenance, or questionable news stories used to justify surveillance warrants, for instance, is a report that is playing politics.

The fuller accounting will come only through total disclosure of FBI and Justice Department probe documents. Mr. Trump promised that disclosure in September but has yet to follow through.

Strassel concludes that “transparency is now a necessity. “

The Mueller report is only half the story. With the special-counsel probe at an end, it’s time to go back the beginning – to the documents that explain its origin. Only then will Americans have the full story of the Russia-collusion narrative.

How long before #LockThemUp starts trending?

Source: GatewayPundit

 

end

The Republicans are now going full blast as Graham vows to investigate the FBI’s unprofessional conduct along with the troubling behaviour by Attorney General Loretta Lynch and of Comey and mcCabe.

(courtesy zerohedge)

“It’s Coming”: Graham Vows To Investigate FBI’s “Unprofessional Conduct” And ‘Troubling’ Behavior By Lynch, Comey

Senate Judiciary Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said in a Monday press conference that he’s going to get to the bottom of “unprofessional conduct” and “shady behavior” by the Justice Department and the FBI surrounding the 2016 US election, and will call on Attorney General William Barr to appoint another Special Counsel “that would look into what happened with the FISA warrant,” and “what happened with the counterintelligence investigation.

Graham also laid out that while he hopes AG Barr will release as much of the Mueller report as possible, certain information would need to be redacted.

Embedded video

ABC News

@ABC

NEW: Senate Judiciary Chair Lindsey Graham says he hopes Attorney General Barr “will come to the committee, release as much as possible of the Mueller report.” https://abcn.ws/2JFRQgg

The rule of law applies both to Republicans and Democrats,” said Graham, one day after a four-page summary of special counsel Robert Mueller’s report cleared Trump and his team of colluding with Russia to win the election, while AG Barr and Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein cleared Trump of obstruction.

Steve Herman

@W7VOA

“The rule of law applies both to Republicans and Democrats,” adds @LindseyGrahamSC.

Steve Herman

@W7VOA

There was “unprofessional conduct” and “shady behavior” by @TheJusticeDept and @FBI, says @LindseyGrahamSC, adding they should have gone to candidate @realDonaldTrump to tell him people in his orbit were in contact with Russians

Graham says he’s going to get to the bottom of former FBI Director James Comey’s behavior in regards to the Clinton email investigation, the Weiner laptop, and the infamous “Tarmac” meeting between Bill Clinton and Obama Attorney General Loretta Lynch, which the South Carolina Republican suggested was ‘something more’ than just a casual encounter.

Embedded video

POLITICO

@politico

“What makes no sense to me is that all the abuse by the Department of Justice, in the FBI the unprofessional conduct, the shady behavior — nobody seems think that’s much important,” Graham said of the “double standard” of alleged pro-Clinton and anti-Trump bias by officials

Nicholas Fandos

@npfandos

Lindsey Graham laying out an important marker here. If his comments are any indication, Republicans are not going to take Mueller’s findings and move on.

They are ready to dive back in to scrutinize the Justice Department and FBI’s handing of the Trump and Clinton cases.

Nicholas Fandos

@npfandos

House Republicans led this charge last Congress. They are now in the minority and so Graham appears to be taking the baton.

That said, the rules of both chambers make it much easier for the House to investigate without the support of the minority than the Senate.

On Sunday night, Graham posted an ominous reply to Comey, after the former FBI Director posted a photo of a man in a forest with the caption “So many questions,” to which Graham replied “Could not agree more. See you soon.”

Lindsey Graham

@LindseyGrahamSC

Could not agree more.

See you soon.

James Comey

@Comey

So many questions.

View image on Twitter

Meanwhile in the House, Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) is reportedly preparing criminal referrals for individuals who “perpetuated this hoax, according to journalist Paul Sperry.

Paul Sperry@paulsperry_

BREAKING:Rep. Devin Nunes says House Intel has evidence Clinton operatives & hi-level FBI & DOJ officials started Trump-Russia investigation in “late 2015/early 2016” &that House GOP will be making criminal referrals to AG Barr for officials who “perpetuated this hoax” for 3+ yrs

Watch Graham’s entire press conference below:

end

How this is cute:  Michael Avenatti is now arrested in an extortion plan against Nike as well as embezzling client funds.  What took them so long

(courtesy zerohedge)

Michael Avenatti Arrested In Extortion Plot Against Nike, Embezzled Client Funds

Update 2: This is just getting more surreal. A second set of charges allege he embezzled a client’s money in order to pay his own expenses and debts — as well as those of his coffee business and law firm — and also defrauded a bank by using phony tax returns to obtain millions of dollars in loans.

Avenatti also allegedly defrauded a bank in Mississippi by submitting to the lender false tax returns in order to obtain three loans totaling $4.1 million for his law firm and coffee business in 2014. According to the affidavit, Avenatti obtained the loans by submitting fabricated individual income tax returns (Forms 1040) for 2011, 2012, and 2013, reporting substantial income even though he had never filed any such returns with the Internal Revenue Service. The phony returns stated that he earned $4,562,881 in adjusted gross income in 2011, $5,423,099 in 2012, and $4,082,803 in 2013, according to the affidavit. Avenatti allegedly also claimed he paid $1.6 million in estimated tax payments to the IRS in 2012 and paid $1.25 million in 2013. In reality, Avenatti never filed personal income tax returns for 2011, 2012 and 2013 and did not make any estimated tax payments in 2012 and 2013. Instead of the millions of dollars he claimed to have paid in taxes, Avenatti still owed the IRS $850,438 in unpaid personal income tax plus interest and penalties for the tax years 2009 and 2010, court papers state. The affidavit also alleges that, as part of his loan applications, Avenatti also submitted a fictitious partnership tax return for his law firm.

Full complaint here.

It’s been a bad few days for the #resistance.

*  *  *

Update 1: Just minutes after lawyer Michael Avenatti tweeted his tease of a press conference tomorrow claiming Nike is involved in a college basketball scandal, Bloomberg reports that Avenatti was just charged by federal prosecutors in New York with attempting to extort millions of dollars out of Nike Inc. by threatening to release damaging information about the company, which did not meet his demands.

Avenatti is alleged to have told Nike that he would cancel a press conference critical of sports apparel company only if it paid an unidentified client $1.5 million, and hired him and another California lawyer to conduct an internal investigation for $15 million to $25 million.

Avenatti is accused of wire fraud and bank fraud. He was arrested Monday, prosecutors said.

CNN’s Erica Orden tweeted the details:

” SDNY is charging Michael Avenatti for “attempting to extract more than $20M in payments from a publicly traded company by threatening to use his ability to garner publicity to inflict substantial financial & reputational harm on the company if his demands were not met.””

According to the complaint filed in federal court, Avenatti told Nike attorneys by phone last week if his demands were not met, “I’ll go take ten billion dollars off your client’s market cap … I’m not f*cking around.”

And Nike shares are rebounding…

SDNY is having a press conference on the Avenatti charges at 2:30pm.

*  *  *

As March Madness hits its stride, former Stormy Daniels’ lawyer Michael Avenatti has found another outlet for his unique legal capabilities. In a tweet, Avenatti warned:

Tmrw at 11 am ET, we will be holding a press conference to disclose a major high school/college basketball scandal perpetrated by @Nike that we have uncovered. This criminal conduct reaches the highest levels of Nike and involves some of the biggest names in college basketball.”

The reaction was instant with NKE shares falling to their lowest since early February…

This news comes after Nike shares have been sliding recently following weak domestic orders.

Developing…

 

 

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:
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-END-

 

I WILL SEE YOU TUESDAY NIGHT
(IF ALL GOES WELL)
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