APRIL 15/GOLD DOWN $3.40 TO $1288.30//SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TO $15.01//TURKEY IS THE BIG STORY TODAY AS THE TURKISH LIRA PLUMMETED TO OVER 5.80 TO THE DOLLAR AS THEIR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ROSE TO ALMOST 15% AND YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE CLOSE TO 27%//TURKISH CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS ROSE TO RECORD LEVELS//

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1288.30 DOWN $3.70 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $15.01 DOWN 1 CENT (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  $1288.05

 

 

silver: $15.00

 

Something To Ponder…

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 9/10

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,290.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/12/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 04/16/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 C JP MORGAN 9
737 C ADVANTAGE 10 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 10 10
MONTH TO DATE: 4,221

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL CONTRACT: 10 NOTICE(S) FOR 1000 OZ (.0311 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  4221 NOTICES FOR 422,100 OZ  (13.129 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR APRIL

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 774 for 3,870,000  oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :$5114  DOWN $17

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $5020 DOWN 111

 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI TOOK A LITTLE BREATHER BY FALLING BY A CONSIDERABLE  SIZED 1553 CONTRACTS FROM 219,843 DOWN TO 218,290 DESPITE FRIDAY’S  11 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.  TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS. WE MUST HAVE HAD  CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING AGAIN.  TODAY NEW SPREADS WERE INITIATED.

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

0 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL,  2617 FOR MAY, 221 FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2838 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2838 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2838 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 14.19 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 11 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

AND NOW 3.870 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL:

15,367 CONTRACTS (FOR 11 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 15,367 CONTRACTS) OR 76.84 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1397 CONTRACTS OR 6.985 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR:  76.84 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 10.98% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          645,01    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4       MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                           207.835   MILLION OZ

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1533 DESPITE THE 11 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /FRIDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2832 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED  A GOOD SIZED: 1285 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 2838 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1553 OI COMEX CONTRACTSAND ALL OF THIS GOOD  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 11 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.02 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.092 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 156% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR  5,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/ AND NOW APRIL AT 3.870 MILLION OZ/
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL AND THIS TIME BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 3145 CONTRACTS, TO 444,280 DESPITE THE RISE IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.10//FRIDAY’S TRADING).  

 THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 6302 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 6302 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS, JUNE 2020  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 444,280. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3157 CONTRACTS: 3145 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 6302 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 3157 CONTRACTS OR 315700 OZ OR 9.819 TONNES. FRIDAY WE HAD A SMALL RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF  $2.10….AND YET WITH THAT, WE STILL HAD A GOOD GAIN IN TONNAGE OF 9.819  TONNES!!!!!!.??? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 63,038 CONTRACTS OR 6,303,800 OR 196.07 TONNES (11 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5730 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 196.07 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 196.07/3550 x 100% TONNES = 5.52% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     1571,67 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED  DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3145 DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICING ($2.10) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK FRIDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6302 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6302 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A  GOOD GAIN OF 3602 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6302 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 3145 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 9.819 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS GOOD  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A SMALL RISE IN PRICE OF $2.10 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

 

 

 

we had:  10 notice(s) filed upon for 1000 oz of gold at the comex.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70  TODAY 

NO CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD INVENTORIES AT THE GLD

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY:

 

A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

 

A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY AN CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1553 CONTRACTS from 219,843 DOWN TO 218,290 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ENTER AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THUS SILVER HAS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY COMING UP AND THUS SPREADERS DO THE FOLLOWING:

“YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF APRIL BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF  SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

EFP ISSUANCE:

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 2617 FOR MAY AND JULY: 221 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2832 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF  1553 CONTRACTS TO THE 2832 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE  OBTAIN A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 1285  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7.098MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH. AND NOW 3.870 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL.

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 11 CENT RISE IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2832 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i))MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 10.84 POINTS OR 0.34% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN  99.04 POINTS OR .33%  /The Nikkei closed UP 298.55 POINTS OR 1.37%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .01%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7072 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 64.57 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.66 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7072 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7077 / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA

Funny:  Kim gives Trump until the end of the year to become more flexible re sanctions or else he walks

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

3 China/Chinese affairs

i)China/USA:

As far as the trade talks are proceeding, the answer is quite clear:  they are not getting real progress on the essential beefs that the USA has with China.  The USA is now backtracking on enforcement and they are caving on demands Beijing scrap industrial subsidies.

( zerohedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Italy

Salvini is positioning Italy ready for the confrontation with Brussels

( TomLuongo)

 

 

ii)Germany

My goodness Germany has a mess on their hands.  Apartments are becoming very expensive  over there and now Germany lawmakers are considering expropriating private apartments to house the poor.
( zerohedge)
iii)Germany charges former Volkswagen CEO with serious fraud for the dieselgate issue

( zerohedge)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey

There are two countries that we must pay close attention to to see if a collapse is coming.  I have now elevated Turkey to being the country that can send the entire global finances into chaos.  The Lira plummeted to 5.8043 to the dollar on soaring unemployment, rising to 14.7% and youth unemployment at almost 27%. My question to Turkey is this:  how can a country’s corporates function with an interest rate at almost 18%. No wonder unemployment skyrocketed.A few things to note:  see the huge rise in Turkey’s credit default swaps. These are simply bets on either the sovereign will default on its bonds. It is rising because Turkey cannot get a hold of enough USA dollars along with its corporate citizens.

( zerohedge)

ii)TURKEY//RUSSIA

Turkey continues to face Russia against the wishes of the USA. Watch for the USA to weaponize the dollar dollar against Turkey.)

( zerohedge)

iii)ISRAEL/SYRIA

Israel launches an attack Friday night on Syria targeting warehouses of military weapons stored by Iran

( Leith Aboufadel/AlNasdarNews)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

i)VENEZUELA

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

I)How true: accountability and transparency in central banking..not in our life time as long as major news organizations refuse to ask the right questions and attempt at proper journalism

( Chris Powell/GATA/Reuters)

ii)When the next crisis hits, hard assets will be safe:  it will be financial assets that will disappear. Very important interview of James Turk with Kingworldnews

( James Turk/Kingworldnews)

iii)Chris Powell admonishes Jim Grant for not saying the gold market is rigged like stocks and interest rates

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA/Jim Grant)

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//early this morning/FOMC

 

 

 

ii)Market data

 

 

 

ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Now wonder the Fed is worried about Stephen Moore as he sets to challenge the status quo over there.

( zerohedge)

b)A good article for you today on the printing of money by the state:  whether it is done by the Fed or by a private individual it is counterfeiting money..if done by the state it is legal counterfeiting

( Patrick Barron/Mises)
c)The tariff war imposed by Trump is having a terrible effect on USA whiskey exports as they plunge badly last month
(courtesy zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

Pelosi is having great difficulty reining in AOC and her gang of 5.

( zerohedge)

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

end

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY 3145 CONTRACTS.TO A LEVEL OF 444,280 DESPITE THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($2.10) IN FRIDAY’S // COMEX TRADING) 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6302 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR APRIL 0 FOR JUNE ’19: 6302 CONTRACTS , DEC; 0 CONTRACTS: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6302 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 3157 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6302 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A VERY CONSIDERABLE SIZED 3145 COMEX CONTRACTS.

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::3157 contracts OR 315,700 OZ OR 9.819 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of APRIL and here the open interest stands at 866 contracts, having gained 300 contracts.

We had 49 notices filed upon yesterday, so we GAINED A WHOPPING 349 contracts or an additional 349,000 oz will  stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.  THE GOLD COMEX ,AND FOR THAT MATTER THE GLOBE, IS VOID OF GOLD AS THE CROOKS DESPERATELY SEARCH FOR BADLY NEEDED GOLD. TO PUT OUT FIRES OCCURRING ELSEWHERE!! TODAY WE WITNESSED A POWERFUL QUEUE JUMPING EXERCISE ORCHESTRATED BY THE BANKS!

 

The next non active delivery month after  APRIL is the NON active delivery month is MAY and here the OI fell by 28 contracts DOWN to 1745 contracts. The next contract month after May is June and it is an active month.  Here the open interest fell by 4536 contracts down to 326,946 contracts.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 10 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 1000 OZ. (

 

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI fell BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1553 CONTRACTS FROM 219,843 DOWN TO 218,290(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE OI COMEX LOSS  OCCURRED DESPITE A 11  CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//FRIDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL AND THE  OPEN INTEREST IN THIS FRONT MONTH RESTS AT 1 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 0 CONTRACTS ON THE DAY.

WE HAD 0 NOTICES SERVED UP YESTERDAY, SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS INVESTORS REFUSED TO  MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. THE COMEX IS RUNNING OUT OF METAL TO FEED THE CROOKS.

 

 

 

 

 

AFTER APRIL, WE HAVE THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 4279 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 105,553. CONTRACTS.. THE NEXT MONTH OF JUNE LOST 19 CONTRACTS TO  79. AFTER JUNE, THE VERY BIG DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY HAD A GAIN OF 2218 CONTRACTS UP TO 76,897 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 1418 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 1420 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2838 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1418 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS GOOD  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 11 CENT GAIN IN PRICING// YESTERDAY 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 1 notice(s) filed for 5,000 OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  225,840  CONTRACTS  volume high due to raid.

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  201,308  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  APRIL/GOLD

APRIL 15 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
10 notice(s)
 1000 OZ
(.031 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
856 contracts
(85,600 oz)
2.663 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4221 notices
422100 OZ
13.129 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had no dealer entries:

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else:  zero oz

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside/ zero  entries  today

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

(maybe investors are taking our advice by not storing their gold at the comex.)

this will hurt our bankers as they need to replace leased gold as all gold stored at the gold comex is unallocated.

 

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; nil oz

 

we had 0 adjustments…

FOR THE APRIL 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  10 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 9 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4221) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL. (866 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (10 x 100 oz per contract) equals 507,700 OZ OR 15.791 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of APRIL

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (4221 x 100 oz)  + (866)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (10 x 100 oz )which equals 507,700oz standing OR 15.791 TONNES in this  active delivery month of APRIL.

 

 

WE GAINED TODAY 349  CONTRACTS OR 349,000  ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO  MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.(AS WELL AS NEGATINGING A FIAT BONUS FOR THEIR EFFORTS).  THIS IS QUEUE JUMPING AT ITS FINEST!!!! ON FRIDAY WE HAD A GAIN OF 290 CONTRACTS OR A GAIN OF 290,000 OZ. SO FAR THE BANKERS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY FINDING GOLD AS NONE WERE SETTLED UPON. AS I DESCRIBED TO YOU LAST MONTH THE GOLD COMEX IS IN SERIOUS STRESS ALONG WITH THE SILVER COMEX.  YOU CAN ALSO BET THE FARM THAT BASEL III IS PLAYING A BIG PART IN THIS AS THE BANKS SCRAMBLE TO REMOVE THEIR PAPER GOLD COLLATERAL FOR THE REAL STUFF.

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 13.689 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 15.791 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING

THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  440,114.329 oz or  13.689 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,937404.407 oz 246.88 tonnes

 

 

FOR COMPARISON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR APRIL 2018 AND FINAL STANDING APRIL 30 2018

AT FIRST DAY NOTICE APRIL 1.201819.897 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

AT CONCLUSION APRIL 30/2018:  ONLY 4.6407 TONNES STOOD AS THE REST MIGRATED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S. AT THE BEGINNING OF APRIL IT LOOKED LIKE WE WERE GOING TO HAVE A REPEAT OF LAST YEAR WHERE MANY MORPH TO LONDON BECAUSE THERE IS NO METAL AT THE COMEX. WE ARE PROVEN WRONG: WE ARE DOING MUCH BETTER IN 2019 AS WE NOW HAVE  TO 15.791 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING.

 

 

IN THE LAST 31 MONTHS 108 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

APRIL 15 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
609,385.309 oz

CNT

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
No of oz served today (contracts)
1
CONTRACT(S)
5,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1 contracts
5,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 774 contracts

3,870,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 148.909 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.90% of all official comex silver. (148 million/305 million)

 

i) Into everybody else:  0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

i) Out of CNT: m609,395.309 oz

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 609,395.309 oz   oz

 

we had 0 adjustments..

 

total dealer silver:  89.727 million

total dealer + customer silver:  304.088 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the APRIL 2019. contract month is represented by 1 contract(s) FOR  5.000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 774 x 5,000 oz = 3,870,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL. (1) and the number of notices served upon today (1 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the APRIL/2019 contract month:774(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL( 1) -number of notices served upon today (1)x 5000 oz equals 3,870,000 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained  0 contracts or an 5,000 NIL oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON VS LAST YEAR:

 

 

ON  FIRST DAY NOTICE MARCH 29/2018: WE HAD 1,805,000 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY FOR THE  APRIL 2018 DELIVERY MONTH

AT CONCLUSION OF APRIL 2018: 2,485,000 OZ STOOD FOR DELIVERY AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS ALREADY WELL DEVELOPED IN SILVER. (APRIL IS A NON ACTIVE SILVER DELIVERY MONTH)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  82,927 CONTRACTS  (volumes high because of the raid.

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 82,621 CONTRACTS…

..volume extremely high due to raid

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 82,621 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 413 million OZ  59.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -3.21% (APRIL 15/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.68% to NAV (APRIL 15/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.21%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.91/TRADING 12.40/DISCOUNT 3.97

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

APRIL 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.85 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $2.10 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757..85 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.45 AGAIN TODAY, THE CROOKS AGAIN RAIDED THE COOKE JAR BY 2.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.49 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40: THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 761.67 TONNES.

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD UP$1.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF PHYSICAL GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.55 TONNES

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.29 TONNES

APRIL 3:WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS: ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL: 3.81 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  764.29 TONNES

APRIL 2//WOW! WE LOST A WHOPPING 16.16 TONNES OF GOLD WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $1.80//INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.10

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 784.26 TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD UP $2.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.26 TONNES

MARCH 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.26 TONNES

 

MARCH 27/SURPRISING! WITH GOLD DOWN AGAIN BY $4.05, THE CROOKS NEEDED TO PUT GOLD BACK INTO THE GLD: THEY ADDED 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.26 TONNES

MARCH 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 781.03 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.85: A STRONG 2.94 TONNES DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 781.03 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 778.09 TONNES

MARCH 21/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 778.09 TONNES

March 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 778.09 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD UP $4.60 TODAY: A MASSIVE 8.23 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 779.27 TONNES AND THEN A WITHDRAWAL OF 1..18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED:  TOTAL GLD INVENTORY REMAINING:  778.09 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN  $0.70: A BIG CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 771.04 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT AGAIN OF 2.93 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.53 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.40: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD DOWN ONLY $1.70: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.87 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY AND THIS GOLD HAS BEEN USED IN THE WHACKING PROCESS YESTERDAY AND TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD ANOTHER $12.50 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 11.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MAR 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY; A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.22 TONNES

 

 

 

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APRIL 15/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 757.85 tonnes

*IN LAST 578 TRADING DAYS: 177.10 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 478 TRADING DAYS: A NET 10.28 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN LOST INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

WE MUST BE GETTING CLOSER TO THE BOTTOM OF THE BARREL FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE GLD.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

APRIL 15: WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 12 WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 750,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ//

April 10/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:  THE CROOKS CANNOT RAID ANY SILVER BECAUSE THERE IS NONE: INVENTORY RETS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 4/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP TWO CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/ WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ FROM THE SLV TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 656,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.301 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.957 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 469,000 OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.957 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ////

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.356 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.488 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 21/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ/

March 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES  IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TODAY AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS: A SURPRISING DEPOSIT OF 1.17 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.848 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY AT THE SLV RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY AT THE SLV RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ////

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 516,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: STRANGE!! TWO TRANSACTIONS!!  IN THE MORNING A WITHDRAWAL OF 703,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307,800 OZ/ IN THE AFTERNOON: A DEPOSIT OF 1.56 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY FINALLY RESTS AT 309.160 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 871,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

 

 

APRIL 15/2019:

 

Inventory 309.167 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.11/ and libor 6 month duration 2.64

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .53

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.46%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.75

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.29

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

There Is Too Much Debt In The World – World Bank

World Bank President, David Malpass, warns there is too much debt in the world and blames China rather than U.S.

  • China has lent trillions of dollars to other countries, including the U.S.
  • “There are challenges facing the world in terms of how do you have transparent projects that are high quality, where the debt is transparent. China moved so fast that in some part of the world there is just too much debt,” Malpass says. “That’s something that we can work on with China.”

via CNBC

There is too much debt floating around the world and China is a big reason why, World Bank President David Malpass said Thursday.

“There are challenges facing the world in terms of how do you have transparent projects that are high quality, where the debt is transparent. China moved so fast that in some part of the world there is just too much debt,” Malpass told CNBC’s Sara Eisen on “Squawk on the Street. ” “That’s something that we can work on with China.”

China has lent trillions of dollars to other countries, including the U.S. As of January, China owns $1.12 trillion in U.S. Treasurys, according to data from the Treasury Department.

Malpass has been a critic of China’s lending efforts to fund its “One Belt, One Road” infrastructure initiative. Last year, he said these loans leave weaker countries with “excessive debt and low-quality projects. ”

On Thursday, Malpass indicated China is willing to scale back on these efforts, noting: “They want to see a better relationship with other countries and be part of the world system. I expect to be successful in that and have a good relationship with China.”

Malpass has also criticized China for taking low-cost loans from the World Bank despite being the second largest economy in the world and surpassing the bank’s income threshold for low-cost loans in 2016.

“China recognizes that its role as a borrower in the bank needs to diminish,” Malpass said. He also noted that World Bank loans to China have been decreasing, adding he expects this to continue over the next three years.

Malpass was elected to his post last Friday. Before joining the World Bank, Malpass served as under secretary of international affairs at the Treasury Department.

Watch Video Here

News and Commentary

Gold slips to one-week low as global slowdown fears ease (CNBC.com)

Criticism mounts of Trump’s pro-gold pick for U.S. Federal Reserve (Reuters.com)

Trump Slams Fed Again, Says Stocks Should Be 5,000-10,000 Higher (Bloomberg.com)

Draghi, in Rare Move, Sounds Concern Over Fed’s Independence (Bloomberg.com)

Another 8 tonnes of gold taken from Venezuela’s central bank for sale (Reuters.com)

Why You Should Prepare for Deflation (24HGold.com)

Until this Thursday (April 18), when you purchase the minimum amount of 10,000 ($€£) in physical gold and or silver, you receive complimentary Storage In Zurich For 6 Months

Economy will start to fade ‘very dramatically’ because of entitlement burden – Greenspan (CNBC.com)

Gold Speculator’s Bullish Bets Rebounded This Week (Investing.com)

Would a political Fed rescue the world? (Reuters.com)

These 40 cities may see housing prices decline, survey says (CNBC.com)

Shadow banking is now a $52 trillion industry, posing a big risk to the financial system (CNBC.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

12 Apr: USD 1,296.15, GBP 991.68 & EUR 1,146.06 per ounce
11 Apr: USD 1,304.65, GBP 997.01 & EUR 1,152.43 per ounce
10 Apr1: USD 1,304.80, GBP 998.04 & EUR 1,157.44 per ounce
09 Apr: USD 1,303.00, GBP 995.13 & EUR 1,155.00 per ounce
08 Apr: USD 1,297.10, GBP 993.58 & EUR 1,154.29 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

12 Apr: USD 15.06, GBP 11.51 & EUR 13.31 per ounce
11 Apr: USD 15.25, GBP 11.66 & EUR 13.53 per ounce
10 Apr: USD 15.25, GBP 11.66 & EUR 13.53 per ounce
09 Apr: USD 15.25, GBP 11.66 & EUR 13.53 per ounce
08 Apr: USD 15.14, GBP 11.60 & EUR 13.47 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– How to Store Gold in an Uncertain World
– The ECB Is Struggling With Inflation, Interest Rates and The Outlook
– Russia Dumps U.S. Dollars and Buys Gold As “Safety Metal”
– How A ‘No Deal’ Brexit Could Lead To The “Lehmanization” Of Europe
– Silver Bullion Set to Soar to $50 an Ounce (GoldCore Video)
– Perth Mint’s Gold Bullion Sales Surge 68% In March

– 7 Reasons – Including Brexit – To Worry About the Global Economy In Charts

Until April 18, when you purchase the minimum amount of 10,000 ($€£) in physical gold and or silver, you receive complimentary Storage In Zurich For 6 Months

davidrussell

 
end

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

How true: accountability and transparency in central banking..not in our life time as long as major news organizations refuse to ask the right questions and attempt at proper journalism

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA/Reuters)

‘Accountability and transparency’ in central banking? Not until news organizations attempt journalism

 Section: 

2:50p ET Saturday, April 13, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Central banks get away with the flaming hypocrisy illustrated below because mainstream news organizations don’t dare to put a critical question to them.

Here, if David Lawder and Leika Kihara of Reuters were serious journalists, and their editor, Paul Simao, had the wit for his job, someone from Reuters would have asked the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde — in the name of the “accountability, transparency, and effective communication” she purported to be advocating — to identify the markets in which her member central banks are surreptitiously trading and when they are surreptitiously trading, and to explain the objectives of their surreptitious trading.

… 

Instead Reuters makes itself a mere press-release service, like PR Newswire.

How easy it would be for any news organization to show central bankers up and shut them up. A single critical question would do it, but there isn’t one in all of Earthly journalism.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

IMF Chief Calls for Central Bank Accountability, Communication

By David Lawder and Leika Kihara
Editing by Paul Simao
Reuters
Saturday, April 13, 2019

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-imf-worldbank-lagarde/imf-chief-calls…

WASHINGTON — International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said today accountability, transparency, and effective communication were key components for central banks to be credible in delivering their mandates.

“Independence has served them well in the course of time and will continue to do so,” Lagarde said at a news conference when asked whether some central banks were facing threats to their independence in setting monetary policy.

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

When the next crisis hits, hard assets will be safe:  it will be financial assets that will disappear. Very important interview of James Turk with Kingworldnews

(courtesy James Turk/Kingworldnews)

Hard assets will endure when debt assets vanish, Turk tells KWN

 Section: 

7:18p ET Sunday, April 14, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In the next financial panic, GoldMoney founder James Turk tells King World News today, hard assets will be safe and secure but financial assets that are essentially debt instruments may disappear. Turk adds that worldwide debt is becoming overwhelming, and he advocates patience in accumulating undervalued assets. The interview is 13 minutes long and can be heard at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/james-turk-4-13-2019/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Chris Powell admonishes Jim Grant for not saying the gold market is rigged like stocks and interest rates

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA/Jim Grant)

 

Why won’t Jim Grant ever say gold is rigged like stocks and interest rates?

 Section: 

8:07p ET Sunday, April 14, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Thanks to Zero Hedge for calling attention tonight to the interview of the Zurich-based financial letter The Market with James Grant, editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, wherein Grant remarks that the Federal Reserve is manipulating the stock market up and interest rates down. Grant calls the latter rigging “very near to a crime.”

But as always Grant has nothing to say about the rigging of the gold market by government, which seems especially strange since gold traditionally has maintained an inverse relationship with real interest rates. That is, in the old days low real rates meant high gold prices, and vice versa.

..

The closest Grant gets in the interview to the paradox of the gold price is to call it “a little bit of a disappointment.” He adds: “It seems as if gold were not reading the newspapers. But seriously, I really wish gold had done better, and I wish it were doing better. Yet I’m as convinced as ever that gold is an attractive and rational alternative to these monetary shenanigans and to the consequences of 10 years of artificially imposed ultra-low interest rates. Unfortunately, when this great bet pays off is hard to say.”

A few years ago Grant and your secretary/treasurer were invited to speak at a meeting of the Committee for Monetary Research and Education, held as always in New York. Following Grant’s remarks and regretting that he had not addressed manipulation of the gold market, your secretary/treasurer said that since there were no longer any interest rates for his financial letter to observe, Grant might do the world a service to examine the documentation of gold market manipulation, which your secretary/treasurer has sent to him from time to time.

The whole thick file of it is posted at GATA’s internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/21

Despite his longstanding criticism of central banking and his inclination to gold, Grant is frequently quoted by mainstream financial news organizations and often appears on financial television news networks. So does he really believe that governments are diddling with stock prices and interest rates but not gold? Or does he fear or has he been told that his respectability with mainstream news organizations will disappear if he carries his complaint about market manipulation one critical step further?

Grant remains in a position to strike a powerful blow for free markets and particularly a free gold market, even if the blow came in what might be his last appearance with a mainstream financial news organization. It would be a noble sacrifice for a worthy cause.

Grant’s interview with The Market is headlined “The Worldwide Suppression of Interest Rates Has Been Something Very Near to a Crime” and it’s posted here:

https://themarket.ch/interview/the-world-wide-suppression-of-interest-ra…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END


iii) Other Physical stories

Bill Holter:  Public commentary for today

A couple of topics for you today that are connected, obvious, yet not understood or even contemplated at this point.  First, have you ever wondered why the names of many fiat currencies refer to “weight”?  Such as the Peso, Peseta, Lira, or Pound amongst many others?  This is similar to the names of various roads, like “Saw Mill Rd.”.  It was named that because years ago there was actually a sawmill down the lane.  These fiat currencies with “weighty” names started out as receipts for either gold or silver.  They were convertible into a specific amount of metal when presented at a bank.

In essence these currencies were representations of physical metal since they were redeemable but far easier to carry around due to the lack of weight.  In today’s jargon, paper currencies that were redeemable in specie were “derivatives” of the metals themselves.  Then as time went on, the redeemability was cancelled and the currencies became true fiat, unbacked by anything except the credit worthiness of the issuer.

Over time, ALL currencies have become fiat and these currencies steadily devalued.  I would ask, how can anyone have the thought these currencies can gain value versus gold or silver over a long period of time if they were originally spawned as derivatives?  Can a derivative ever become more valuable than that it originated from?  The answer of course is no and should be followed by another question; can a monetary guarantee from any government ever be more ironclad than that of physical metal itself?

Next, we know for a fact Russia, China and other nations have been accumulating gold for years now.  Why?  I can assure you it is not to “trade” for profit to accumulate more fiat.  They fully understand their own issued fiats and those of other central banks were at best only derivatives historically and not even remotely a derivative of gold now.  Now, they are only poor joking derivatives of the various central banks and in no way a store of value.

One of our readers passed this commentary regarding a Zerohedge article along yesterday to us;

 

“This graph is pure transparency to those who understand the Chinese. Whether in trade agreements, military power, or their economic goals, they never show their hand.
Some estimate they are holding 20,000+ tons of gold.
I believe they will shock the world with twice that (40,000 tons).
That will be the day everything changes and it will be by their design.
Does anyone truly believe Russia doesn’t know this ?”
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/china%20gold%204.7.2019.jpg?itok=Z3xFc0Q_

 

Think about what is said here and truly what it means?  When China does fully announce their gold holdings, they will most likely not make the yuan convertible into gold.  Their gold holdings will simply act as a backstop for confidence in the currency.  As Jim puts it, the gold hoard will act as the Hope Diamond around a woman’s neck as she walks into the room.  No one will really look at the woman, so whether she is homely or not does not matter, only what is around her neck …and this would be China’s gold holdings and to a lesser degree Russia’s.

We are talking about “financial warfare” here.  Russia and China fully understand the fraudulent nature of Western fractional reserve banking and finance.  They understand how and why the West will fail and have been acting to accumulate gold as buffer against (or in place of) any dollar holdings.  They have set up trade deals, lending/credit and clearing facilities, and treaty’s of all sorts with many nations.  Put simply, they are making ready for the coming failure of the West!

Putting this together, China will be moving the currency pendulum back toward derivative status.  As mentioned, I do not think the yuan will become convertible because if it was convertible …conversion is exactly what will happen.  Instead, they will use their gold holdings as a sign of fiscal and monetary responsibility.  Though not truly a derivative because no direct connection to their gold, the yuan will be favored versus other fiats because of the held gold.  If you understand that we are currently at war, financial war, then you understand “why” foreign nations are accumulating gold.  The old saying “he who owns the gold makes the rules” will apply here.

To finish, if you are waiting for gold to break out above the five+ year trading range before you position yourself, good luck!  As a nation, we will be completely screwed without gold holdings because our dollar will be shunned internationally as one issued by a central bank with paltry if any actual gold holdings.  China will mark up the price of gold making their hoard mighty …and making it very difficult for anyone ever to catch up if trying to pay with fiat and no Hope Diamond around their neck!

 

Standing watch,

Bill Holter

Holter-Sinclair collaboration

 

 

END
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7072/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7077   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 10.84 or 0.34%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 99.04 points or .33%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 298.55 POINTS OR 1.37%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

USA dollar index FALLS TO 96.85/Euro RISES TO 1.1311

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.03/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.93/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 63.38 and Brent: 70.81

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +06%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.53% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.08%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.47: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 3.28

3k Gold at $1286.35 silver at:14.94   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 47/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.15

3m oil into the 63 dollar handle for WTI and 70 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.98 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0027 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1341 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.06%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.56% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.97%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7988..GETTING VERY DANGEROUS

 

Global Stocks Hit 6 Month High On, Drumroll, Renewed “Trade Talk Optimism”

This is the part in Groundhog Day where Phil Connors kills himself again, and again, and again.

With stocks itching for a new excuse to levitate higher, they got that overnight when a Reuters report on fresh “progress” in the U.S.-China trade talks and renewed “optimism” in a trade deal helped propel world stock markets to a 6-month high on steered investors away from save havens such as the Japanese yen, even as 10Y treasury yields dipped modestly, as the same catalyst that has driven stocks higher on virtually every single day in the past quarter has continued to do so again and again, right out of the cult groundhog movie.

 

“It seems like bullish sentiment has decent grip for now and everyone is focused on the year to date performance of the equity markets,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at TF Global Markets (UK) Ltd in London.

Overnight Reuters reported that US negotiators tempered demands that China curb industrial subsidies as a condition for a trade deal after strong resistance from Beijing, marking a retreat on a core U.S. objective for the trade talks. According to the report, in the push to secure a deal in the next month or so, U.S. negotiators have become resigned to securing less than they would like on curbing those subsidies and are focused instead on other areas where they consider demands are more achievable, Reuters sources said. Those include ending forced technology transfers, improving intellectual property protection and widening access to China’s markets, the sources said. China has already given ground on those issues.

“It’s not that there won’t be some language on it, but it is not going to be very detailed or specific,” one source familiar with the talks said in reference to the subsidies issue.

Separately, on Saturday during the latest IMF conclave, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the US is “hopefully very close” to final round of China talks; adding that the U.S. is open to facing enforcement penalties which work “in both directions.” all of which helped spawn a fresh sense of optimism that a deal announcement was imminent.

In addition to the new trade optimism, thanks to the pleasant aftertaste from China’s credit flood in March, which exceeded all estimates, concern over global growth has also eased, fueling demand for riskier assets. MSCI’s gauge for equities saw its 100-day moving average rise above the 200-day equivalent as the index rose 12 out of the past 13 days, signaling potential for further gains.

Following a muted Asian session, the European Stoxx 600 Index erased an earlier loss and extended gains to session highs with bank stocks contributing most to the increase. A gauge tracking lenders climbs for a third session as it holds above a barrier it breached last week. The European index advances 0.3% as of 11:30 a.m. in London, reversing a decline of as much as 0.1% earlier. BNP Paribas rose 2.5%, adding the most to the increase by index points. Other banks also stronger: Credit Suisse +2.2%; ING Groep +1.3%, Unicredit +2.2%

S&P500 futures nudged up after spending most of the session in the red, as results from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup loomed. In Asia, equities headed for a fresh six-month high, propelled by markets in Japan and Korea, after the Bank of China released upbeat credit data, although earlier, Chinese stocks closed in the red, fading initial trade-related gains as expectations for rate cuts fizzled following the latest credit deluge.

With Chinese trade and lending data showing signs of improvement for the world’s second-biggest economy, investors are turning to the US earnings season to confirm the resilience of corporate America in the face of numerous challenges to growth. JPMorgan Chase posted strong first-quarter results last week, Goldman and Citi report today and Bank of America is up on Tuesday.

“The environment of easier financial conditions is beginning to have an impact on the broader economy,” Principal Global’s Binay Chandgothia told Bloomberg TV. “If that is the case and growth does pick up, you’ll see an uptick in analyst expectations and earnings as well, which should help continue the rally.”

Bunds, US Treausrys and Gilts were confined to very tight ranges, as BTPs trade in a choppier range with peripheral yield spreads widening to core at the margin. G-10 currencies drift sideways in quiet trade, SEK marginally outperforms peers, CAD and NOK lag on commodities weakness.

In FX, South Korea’s won led an advance among emerging-market currencies, while Turkey’s lira underperformed as the unemployment rate climbed to the highest level in a decade. G-10 currencies drifted sideways in quiet trade, with the SEK marginally outperforming peers, CAD and NOK lag on commodities weakness. The yen dropped toward its 2019 low on Monday and the Swiss franc hit its weakest in nearly a month. The dollar also weakened slightly, allowing the euro to cement gains above $1.13.

In commodities, oil slipped after the longest run of weekly gains in three years as a report showed increased U.S. oil-rig activity. Oil provided big milestones last week, with Brent breaking through the $70 threshold and the U.S. benchmark posting six straight weeks of gains for the first time since early 2016. Brent crude oil futures was last off 23 cents at $71.32 while crude futures, the U.S. benchmark, eased 33 cents to $63.56.

Expected data include Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Schwab, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs are reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,912.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.01% to 387.56
  • MXAP up 0.6% to 163.25
  • MXAPJ up 0.1% to 543.51
  • Nikkei up 1.4% to 22,169.11
  • Topix up 1.4% to 1,627.93
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 29,810.72
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,177.79
  • Sensex up 0.3% to 38,897.72
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 unchanged at 6,251.44
  • Kospi up 0.4% to 2,242.88
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to 0.06%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1319
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 15.4 bps to 2.171%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.5 bps to 1.064%
  • Brent futures down 0.7% to $71.04/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,286.95
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 96.80

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The release of the almost 400-page Special Counsel Robert Mueller report this week could help President Trump put two years of suspicion and risk from the investigation behind him — or ensure that controversy over the Russia probe hangs over his re-election bid.
  • Trump, renewing his attack on the Federal Reserve, claimed the stock market would be “5000 to 10,000” points higher had it not been for the actions of the U.S. central bank. “Quantitative tightening was a killer, should have done the exact opposite!” he tweeted.
  • Job vacancies in London’s finance industry have halved in two years as uncertainty over Brexit knocks down business confidence, a survey by recruiter Morgan McKinley has found.
  • The mass production of iPhones will shift to India this year from China, Foxconn Technology Group Chairman Terry Gou said. The company is the largest assembler of Apple Inc.’s handsets and has long concentrated on China.
  • Finland looks set to get a more left-leaning government as voters rejected years of austerity in the tightest election in over half a century. Former trade unionist Antti Rinne is poised to become Finland’s first Social Democrat prime minister in 16 years, winning by fewer than 7,000 votes.

Asian equity markets began the week mostly positive as the region took impetus from last Friday’s gains on Wall St. where sentiment was underpinned by a strong start to earnings season and encouraging Chinese data. Nonetheless, ASX 200 (U/C) was dampened amid tentativeness ahead of key earnings and underperformance in gold miners, as well as trade-related news including a further decline of Chinese imports and dispute at the WTO on Australia’s restriction on Chinese 5G technology. The rest of the major Asia-Pac indices are mixed as recent advances in USD/JPY fuelled the upside in Nikkei 225 (+1.4%), while Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.3%) finished lower but were initially boosted as most of the recent Chinese data surpassed estimates including New Yuan Loans, Aggregate Financing, Trade Balance and Exports with the latter at a 5-month high. Furthermore, reports the US softened its demands on China for reducing state industrial subsidies and that both sides have agreed to measures to avoid China currency manipulation, added to the hopes for a looming trade deal. Finally, 10yr JGBs were softer as they tracked the recent losses in T-notes and with demand also dampened by gains in riskier assets as well as a lack of BoJ presence in the market today.

Top Asian News

  • The $18 Billion Electric-Car Bubble at Risk of Bursting in China
  • Turkey Bleeds Jobs as Unemployment Climbs to Highest in a Decade
  • Economist Snatched at Night, Questioned for ‘Insulting’ Erdogan
  • Jack Ma Again Endorses Extreme Overtime as Furor Rages On

A tepid start to the week for European equities thus far (Eurostoxx 50 Unch) after the optimism seen in Asia somewhat waned, although Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed higher by almost 1.5% amid currency tailwind. In Europe, Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.5%) bodes well as the bourse hit eight-month highs, bolstered by banking names amidst the optimism surrounding US banks’ earnings (ahead of Goldman Sachs and Citigroup earnings today). As such the banking sector in Europe outperforms (Stoxx 600 Banks +0.9%) whilst its peers remain mixed. In terms of individual movers, France’s Publicis Groupe (+3.2%) leads the gains in the CAC 40 (+0.1%) on the back of an optimistic revenue update, whilst also supporting its UK peer WPP (+1.3%) in tandem. Elsewhere, Covestro (-4.2%) is the marked laggard in the DAX (Unch) amid ex-dividend trade. Finally, IWG (+22.4%) rests at the top of the Stoxx 600 [Unch] after reports that Japan’s TKP are to acquire the Co.’s workspace leading unit for JPY 50bln coupled with a broker upgrade.

Top European News

  • Trafigura to Take Control of Europe’s Biggest Zinc Smelter
  • Finns Eject Austerity Government as Leftists Win Election
  • Draghi Sticks to Cautious Optimism About Euro-Area Bounceback
  • SNB to Raise Rate at Start of 2020, Same Time as ECB, UBS Says

In FX, the Sterling remains underpinned and relatively optimistic after another Article 50 extension to avoid a no deal Brexit and amidst reports that talks between the Conservative and Labour Parties have been more detailed and constructive than some expected, per UK Foreign Secretary Hunt. Cable is eyeing 1.3100 again, albeit with a hefty helping hand from a broadly soft Dollar, as Eur/Gbp trades largely sideways within a 0.8633-50 range. Technically, 1.3132 (last Friday’s high) forms nearest resistance, but data could become pivotal as the week unfolds given jobs and earnings on tap tomorrow, then CPI on Wednesday and retail sales ahead of the long Easter break.

  • EUR – As noted above, the single currency is also firm and outperforming the Greenback as the DXY slips a bit further below 97.000 to just under 96.800. Eur/Usd is inching towards 1.1300+ upside chart levels, like a 50% Fib circa 1.1324 and the 200 WMA around 1.1341. Note also, 2 banks are long of the headline pair and looking for sizeable rallies to 1.1650 and even 1.1800.
  • NZD/AUD/JPY/CHF/CAD – All narrowly mixed vs the Usd with the Kiwi and Aussie both deriving some support from reports overnight suggesting the US has relaxed some demands over Chinese industrial subsidies in ongoing trade negotiations, as Nzd/Usd hovers between 0.6763-82 and Aud/Usd in a 0.7164-80 range. However, Usd/Jpy has not advanced as much as risk-on sentiment might have suggested overnight with the pair fading just shy of the 2019 peak (112.14) amidst supply from Japanese exporters according to market contacts and now revisiting the 200 WMA (111.98). Meanwhile, the Franc is sitting tight within 1.0010-28 parameters and Loonie between 1.3320-47 ahead of the BoC’s Business Outlook Survey and against the backdrop of softer oil prices that are also undermining the NOK (sub-9.6100 vs the Eur as SEK holds above 10.4700).
  • EM – The Try has been hit hard again and got closer to recent lows vs the Usd in wake of latest Turkish jobs data revealing a spike in the rolling 3 month average unemployment rate to 14.7% vs 13.5% previously. The Lira has nursed some losses since on the aforementioned Buck weakness, but remains on the backfoot in a 5.7600-8115 band in stark contrast to the Rand that has extended gains through 14.0000 even though one institution is anticipating a reversal in the Zar’s fortunes and rebound to 14.2700.

In commodities, there has been subdued trade in the energy complex as WTI (-0.8%) and Brent (-0.8%) futures gave up some of Friday’s gains, with the latter now straddling around the psychological USD 71.00/bbl level. Friday’s CFTC data showed that hedge funds raise bullish ICE WTI crude bets by 30.7k to 281.7k lots, whilst speculators increased net long positions in Brent crude (for a fifth consecutive week) by almost 9.5k to just over 358k in the week to April 9th. Over the weekend, Russia’s Finance Minister stated that OPEC+ could decide to raise production (at the June 25/26 meeting) to fight for market share with the US. Currently OPEC+ have agreed to curb output by 1.2mln BPD until June 2019, with IFX noting that Russia’s April production fell by 150k BPD vs the benchmark October level. Back in December, Russia committed to reducing output by 228k BPD from October levels of 11.4mln BPD in a gradual manner which would take place over several months. Elsewhere, the precious metals sector is mostly in the red with gold (-0.4%) edging lower and breaching its 100 DMA (USD 1288/oz) to the downside as last week’s Chinese data somewhat eases fears of a global growth slowdown. Meanwhile, copper (-0.3%) gave up its overnight gains as the risk sentiment became more cautious during early EU trade. Finally, Shanghai steel futures hit a seven-and-a-half year high as the alloy is supported by firm demand, whilst its base metal, Dalian iron ore futures remained near record highs on dwindling Chinese stockpiles which declined the most since 2015, according to SteelHome data.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, est. 8, prior 3.7
  • 4pm: Net Long- term TIC Flows, prior $7.2b deficit
  • 4pm: Total Net TIC Flows, prior $143.7b deficit

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Right. I’m writing this only an hour or so after the first episode of the final Game Of Thrones season had its global premier and am selectively looking through my normal newsfeeds very nervous that I’m going to see spoilers. So if I’ve missed anything today that’s my excuse. I’m not going to watch it until we move into our new house immediately after Easter so I will unleash my dragons to anyone that tells me what happens. Someone important is bound to have died already so that’s going to be tough to avoid if true!! Rather aptly the most difficult spoiler I’ve ever had to avoid was 30 years ago this week around the Masters. In my Easter school holidays I had a paper round and had to be up at 4.30am. As such I had to go to bed early and video tape my hero Nick Faldo’s attempt at the Masters with the view of watching it when I’d finished. Obviously all the papers had the result on the back page (he won). So I had to deliver them all with my eyes closed. I remember it well and the great difficulty involved. The locals must have thought me very odd. The modern equivalent will be me closing my eyes every time I open the internet for the next 10 days. Staying with the Masters, I did find it emotional to see a remarkable comeback victory for Tiger Woods yesterday. Our careers have moved in parallel. He’s a year younger than me, has had 4 knee surgeries to my 3 and 4 back operations while I’ve had several injections in the spine. The only real difference is 15 major championships. But has he ever won an II analyst award? Anyway, nice to see that 40-somethings still have a place in the world.

It might be Easter holiday from Friday but we should know a bit more about the global economy before we go away. The continuation of our tactically bullish view relies a lot on China data bouncing back and dragging Europe along with it. Well on Wednesday we see the important monthly data dump with the release of March’s industrial production and retail sales data and also Q1 Chinese GDP. March’s data will be especially important in assessing whether the recent tick up in PMIs were a genuine positive signal or not. Last Friday’s bumper credit numbers (more later) reinforces our view that China is going through another mini credit cycle. Indeed our Chinese economists put out a note yesterday ( link here ) suggesting that there is upside to their 2019 forecasts. They’ll update these after Wednesday’s numbers.

The other main highlight will be the flash April PMIs on Thursday, with releases for the Eurozone, Germany, France and the United States. It’ll be particularly interesting to see the manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone, which fell for an eighth consecutive month in March, moving deeper into contractionary territory with a 47.5 reading. The German manufacturing PMI was even more contractionary last month, with a 44.1 reading. If we’re right on China these should be turning up soon.

In a similar vein, Germany’s ZEW survey for April comes out on Tuesday, which is an important number in light of the above. In March, the ZEW survey of current activity fell to 11.1, its lowest level since December 2014, although the expectation reading rose to -3.6, which was its highest since March 2018, so it’ll be worth looking to see if there are any signs of improvements here.

The main other highlights are US Retail Sales (Thursday) and Q1 US earnings season picking up through the week. Retail Sales will be looked at for signs the consumption soft patch either side of the turn of the year is behind us. In terms of earnings today we’ll see Goldman Sachs and Citigroup reporting. Tomorrow there’ll be earning releases from Bank of America, Netflix, IBM and Johnson & Johnson. On Wednesday, there’ll be Morgan Stanley and PepsiCo, and on Thursday, there’ll be Philip Morris International and American Express. The day by day week ahead is at the end.

Over the weekend, the US President Trump renewed his criticism of the Fed by tweeting, “If the Fed had done its job properly, which it has not, the Stock Market would have been up 5000 to 10,000 additional points.” I can only assume he means the Dow rather than the S&P 500! He further added, “Quantitative tightening was a killer, should have done the exact opposite!” President Trump’s comments came after the IMF conference in Washington where ECB President Draghi said that he was “certainly worried about central bank independence” and especially “in the most important jurisdiction in the world.” Elsewhere, at the same IMF conference Germany came under pressure from global policy makers to ease fiscal policy.

Meanwhile, on US/China trade talks, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the US and China are discussing whether to hold more in-person meetings after talks in recent weeks while adding that “we’re hopefully getting very close to the final round of these issues.” He also said on the enforcement mechanism that, “I would expect that the enforcement mechanism works in both directions, that we expect to honor our commitments, and if we don’t, there should be certain repercussions, and the same way in the other direction.”

Asian markets have started the week on a positive note with the Nikkei (+1.47%), Hang Seng (+0.58%), Shanghai Comp (+1.12%) and Kospi (+0.49%) all up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are trading flattish (-0.04%).

In other news, Finland will likely get a more left-leaning government after voters, in the tightest election in memory, rejected years of austerity and seemingly demanded more spending on welfare. Former trade unionist Antti Rinne is poised to become Finland’s first Social Democrat prime minister in 16 years after winning by fewer than 7,000 votes but his party faces tough coalition talks ahead as the ultra nationalist Finns Party emerged as the second-biggest party, beating the establishment conservative National Coalition for the first time.

On Brexit, David Lidington, PM May’s de facto deputy, said on Sunday that the government believed it would be possible to get “the benefits of a customs union” – which Labour wants – “but still have a flexibility for the U.K. to pursue an independent trade policy on top of that.” He added that even though parliament is in recess until April 23, negotiations will continue. Sterling is up +0.18% this morning.

Recapping last Friday and the week overall now. Equity markets advanced on Friday with the S&P 500 +0.66% (+0.51% for the week), the NASDAQ +0.46% (+0.57%) and the STOXX 600 +0.16% (-0.18%). This was the third consecutive weekly gain for the S&P 500, which closed at its highest level for six months. Financials led the advance following strong earnings from JPMorgan, which reported net income of $9.2bn in the first quarter, sending its shares up +4.69% on Friday. They also reported net interest income of $14.6bn in the first quarter, up 8% on the same quarter a year ago, while return on common equity reached 16%. Impressive numbers. The STOXX Banks index ended the day +2.78% (+3.05% – week) to reach its highest level since October (also helped by the China data and rising bund yields). The S&P 500 Banks index was also up +2.40% (+2.39%).

The market was also supported by stronger-than-expected data releases. Firstly, we had the credit numbers out of China where new total social financing came in at RMB2.86tr, much stronger than the market consensus forecast of RMB1.85tr. New bank loans also surprised on the upside at RMB1.69tr compared with consensus of RMB1.25tr. M2 (broad money) growth rebounded to 8.6% in March from 8.0% in Feb but the most significant part, according to our economists, was the rebound in M1, whose growth rate jumped to 4.6% in March, up more than 4ppts from its trough at 0.4% in Jan. Again see their report mentioned earlier for more.

The Chinese trade data was also positive, with the March trade balance coming in at $32.65bn (vs. $5.70bn expected) indicating that exports had recovered. In Europe, the Eurozone industrial production figures fell by -0.2% mom in February but above the -0.5% decline expected, while January’s figure was revised up to 1.9% mom (from 1.4% previously). However, in the US the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell more than expected, coming in at 96.9 (vs. 98.2 expected).

Government bond yields rose as the global data was generally pretty positive, with ten-year bund yields +6.4bps on Friday (+4.9bps on the week) to return to positive territory (0.054%). 10yr Treasury yields rose +6.8bps on Friday (+7.0bps – week), and the US 2s10s curve steepened to end the day +2.9bps (+1.8bps). Bond yields in the European periphery came off their recent lows with the rise in yields but spreads edged tighter. In Greece though, ten-year yields fell to their lowest level since September 2005.

end

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 10.84 POINTS OR 0.34% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN  99.04 POINTS OR .33%  /The Nikkei closed UP 298.55 POINTS OR 1.37%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .01%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7072 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 64.57 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.66 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7072 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7077 / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/

Funny:  Kim gives Trump until the end of the year to become more flexible re sanctions or else he walks

(courtesy zerohedge)

Kim Jong Un Gives Trump Until Year-End To Become More Flexible

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has given the breakdown in talks with the United States “till the end of this year” before he walks away, suggesting that the Trump administration needs to be more flexible.

“It is essential for the U.S. to quit its current calculation method and approach us with a new one,” Kim said in a Friday speech to the Supreme People’s Assembly, according to Reuters, citing North Korean state-owned KCNA.

Trump and Kim have held two summits, in Hanoi in February, and Singapore in June. While the first meeting built goodwill and ended in a generic agreement that North Korea would denuclearize, the Feb. 28 Hanoi summit ended abruptly after Trump handed Kim a piece of paper demanding Pyongyang give the United States its existing nuclear weapons and enriched uranium, according to Reuterswhich described the document as representing “Bolton’s long-held hardline “Libya model” of denuclearization. A lunch between the two leaders was canceled that day.

Kim said during his Friday speech that in Hanoi, the United States came “to the talks only racking its brain to find ways that are absolutely impracticable,” and did “not really ready itself to sit with us face-to-face and settle the problem,” Kim added – nothing that his personal relationship with Trump is still good.

If it (the United States) keeps thinking that way, it will never be able to move the DPRK even a knuckle, nor gain any interests no matter how many times it may sit for talks with the DPRK,” Kim added.

Kim said that the outcome in Hanoi caused him to question what he agreed to last year during the first summit with Trump, and “aroused a strong question if we were right in taking the steps with strategic decision and bold resolution, and evoked vigilance as to the U.S.’ true willingness to improve its relations with the DPRK.”

We will wait for a bold decision from the U.S. with patience till the end of this year but I think it will definitely be difficult to get such a good opportunity as the previous summit. -Kim Jong Un

Trump responded in two Saturday morning tweets, saying: “A third Summit would be good in that we fully understand where we each stand,” adding “I look forward to the day, which could be soon, when Nuclear Weapons and Sanctions can be removed, and then watching North Korea become one of the most successful nations of the World!” Trump added.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I agree with Kim Jong Un of North Korea that our personal relationship remains very good, perhaps the term excellent would be even more accurate, and that a third Summit would be good in that we fully understand where we each stand. North Korea has tremendous potential for…….

 

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….extraordinary growth, economic success and riches under the leadership of Chairman Kim. I look forward to the day, which could be soon, when Nuclear Weapons and Sanctions can be removed, and then watching North Korea become one of the most successful nations of the World!

Kim said on Friday that he has no interest in a third summit if it’s just a repeat of Hanoi.

On Thursday while meeting with South Korean President Moon in Washington, Trump expressed a willingness for a third summit with Kim, however Washington would leave sanctions in place for now.

Kim said the United States “is further escalating the hostility to us with each passing day despite its suggestion for settling the issue through dialogue.” The current U.S. policy of sanctions and pressure is “as foolish and dangerous an act as trying to put out fire with oil,” he added.

Still, Kim said he would not hesitate to sign an agreement if it takes into account both countries’ considerations. Reuters

Meanwhile, provocations between North Korea and the United States appear to be on the cusp of escalating once again. The United States, for example, tested an anti-ballistic missile system and has been conducting military drills with South Korea, despite Trump’s assurances that large-scale exercises would cease.

North Korea, meanwhile, warned in March that Kim might reconsider a moratorium on missile launches and nuclear tests they have maintained since 2017, if the United States doesn’t ease sanctions – according to a North Korean senior official.

South Korea says it’s trying to help the situation, saying in a statement that officials would “do what we can in order to maintain the current momentum for dialogue and help negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea resume at an early date.”

Kim complained that Washington is coercing South Korea into abiding by sanctions and not pushing forward with inter-Korea projects.

North Korea has a choice “to keep maintaining the atmosphere of improving the North-South ties or to go back to the past when the ties plunged into a catastrophe with the danger of a war increasing,” he said. –Reuters

According to North Korean state media on Saturday, South Korea’s purchase of two recently delivered F-35A fighter jets was a “serious provocative act” that could cause relations along the Korean peninsula to deteriorate.

“Bringing in weapons of war is an obvious threat. South Korea needs to behave itself better, and think about how such an imprudent act could lead to catastrophic outcomes,” North Korea said in its report.

Kim, in his Friday speech, said that he is committed to better North-South Korean relations and peaceful unification. “I make it clear once again that it is my unwavering determination to turn the North-South ties into those of durable and lasting reconciliation and cooperation by holding hands with the south Korean authorities and to write a new history of the nation, peaceful and co-prosperous.”

END

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

3 C CHINA/CHINESE AFFAIRS

China/USA:

As far as the trade talks are proceeding, the answer is quite clear:  they are not getting real progress on the essential beefs that the USA has with China.  The USA is now backtracking on enforcement and they are caving on demands Beijing scrap industrial subsidies.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Washington Backtracks On Enforcement Progress, Caves On Demands Beijing Scrap Industrial Subsidies

Despite Trade Rep. Robert Lighthizer’s insistence that Washington leverage its position of advantage – i.e. the unassailable fact that its tariffs had contributed to a precarious deceleration in Chinese economic growth – the Trump Administration’s trade team has repeatedly caved to Beijing. First, the administration compromised on enforcement (the administration has reportedly punted it to 2025) to the currency manipulation. And now it has reportedly softened its demands for the ‘structural economic reforms’ that Trump had insisted on as part of the final deal.

China

According to Reuters, US negotiators have ‘tempered’ their demands that Beijing roll back some of its industrial state subsidies as part of the trade deal. Washington’s demands were reportedly met with ‘strong resistance’ from Beijing.

The issue is a thorny one because China’s brand of state-directed capitalism is deeply tied up with the tax breaks and other advantages that Beijing bestows on state-owned firms, and it’s possible that many of these firms could fail without the government’s support, potentially setting off a destabilizing chain reaction.

The issue of industrial subsidies is thorny because they are intertwined with the Chinese government’s industrial policy. Beijing grants subsidies and tax breaks to state-owned firms and to sectors seen as strategic for long-term development. Chinese President Xi Jinping has strengthened the state’s role in parts of the economy.

And as the Trump administration looks to secure a deal in the next month or so, expect them to cave on more of their demands and focus on priorities that they consider “achievable.”

These include: Ending forced technology transfers, improving intellectual property protection, expanding access to Chinese markets for American firms (and in particular American tech firms).

In what sounded like an attempt to spin Washington’s walk-backs on subsidies and enforcement, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin – one of the officials tasked with leading the trade delegation – said during a Monday morning interview that there was “more work to do” including on the issue of enforcement, after saying last week that the two sides had agreed to opening ‘enforcement offices’.

When it comes to restrictions on state subsidies, expect any language in the deal to be vague, allowing Beijing substantial wiggle room to largely maintain the status quo.

So, if China’s economy is in such dire straits, why is the US caving? Well, because President Xi can’t accept a deal that would make him look weak, which gives him very little room to concede.

Washington has detailed more than 500 different subsidies it has said China applies in notifications to the WTO.

“It’s not that there won’t be some language on it, but it is not going to be very detailed or specific,”one source familiar with the talks said in reference to the subsidies issue.

“If U.S. negotiators define success as changing the way China’s economy operates, that will never happen,” said the other source with knowledge of the trade talks.

“A deal that makes Xi look weak is not a worthwhile deal for Xi. Whatever deal we get, it’s going to be better than what we’ve had, and it’s not going to be sufficient for some people. But that’s politics,” that source said.

China promised to end its subsidies earlier this year, but never said how it would accomplish this. To be sure, as Reuters points out, there are ways that maintaining subsidies could work to America’s advantage, since most of the firms that would be making the tens of billions of dollars of annual agricultural purchases are mostly recipients of these subsidies.

One of the key sticking points in the negotiations is the removal of the $250 billion in U.S. tariffs. It is broadly expected in the trade community that U.S. negotiators want to keep some tariffs on Chinese goods, which Washington sees as retaliation for the years of damage done to its economy by Beijing’s unfair trade practices.

The role of the state firms may benefit the United States in another part of the trade deal. The Trump administration wants China to make big-ticket purchases of over a trillion dollars of U.S. goods in the next six years to reduce its trade surplus. The companies likely to make the purchases are the state-run firms, both sources said.

“The purchasing, for example, reinforces the role of the state sector because the purchasing is all being done through state enterprises,” one of the sources said.

Another point of contention between the two countries, telecommunications, may drive China to increase the state’s role rather than reduce it, the source said.

In a separate report, Bloomberg said that China is weighing a request from Washington to shift some tariffs on key agricultural goods to other products to help the administration sell the trade deal to farmers, a key voting bloc for Trump, ahead of the 2020 election. While the exact nature of the arrangement proposed by the US wasn’t reported, it shows that political considerations are increasingly becoming a factor as the talks enter their final stretch.

While some have argued that Trump could tout any deal as a win, even if China refuses to meet Washington’s core demands and instead focuses on agricultural purchases, the political problem could become a serious Catch-22 for Trump.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

i)Italy

Salvini is positioning Italy ready for the confrontation with Brussels

(courtesy TomLuongo)

Salvini Is Positioning Italy For Confrontation

Authored by Tom Luongo via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

Italy’s Matteo Salvini is riding high right now. Having weathered a couple of cheap legal moves to derail his assault on the European Parliament this May, Salvini is working to galvanize Euroskepticism across the continent into a viable political force.

He’s got his work cut out for himself.

But, he has at least two major allies. Marine Le Pen of the National Rally in France and Viktor Orban, the leader of Hungary. Salvini and Le Pen met last week to announce they would be campaigning together for the European elections as well as a major summit in Milan soon.

This is only the beginning, however.

I’ve been saying for over a year now that Salvini needs to be the person who lays the foundation for a wholesale revolt against the European Union and Italy’s participation in the euro.

His Lega party have skyrocketed in the polls, reversing the dynamic between it and coalition partner Five Star Movement. It’s a coalition that is of the kind which frightens the political establishment in Europe because it isn’t formed on the traditional left-right false divide.

It is a populist one united on the common cause of overthrowing the corrupt, corporatist system which most western governments are fronts for.

And since coming to power last year there have been multiple attempts to drive wedges between these supposedly strange bedfellows. All of them have failed. And part of the reason for that has been the surging popularity of Lega and Salvini.

Having survived to this point and scared the EU a few times with Trump-like ‘big asks’ on the budget and immigration reform, Salvini and his partner in populism Luigi Di Maio are looking towards the EP elections as a first major test of their government.

And being able to bring together groups from all over Europe to agree on a common platform to challenge the French/German axis of power would put them in a good position in the second half of 2019 to push things farther, especially as it pertains to Italy’s insane fiscal situation.

I realized early on that Salvini was two things. He was both a radical who was also methodical. He’s not flaming out in a blaze of glory here. He’s building his case against the EU slowly, allowing history to come to him.

He’s stayed far away from the Brexit debacle, even though he knows he has the power to stop the betrayal of the vote and force the divorce. But rather than do that it’s better to let the process play itself out and reveal the ugly truth of it all while he takes notes and reloads for the next attack on the EU.

If Euroskeptics outperform the current polling which has them at around 30-32% of the seats and Salvini can rally them under one banner to become the biggest party in the EP, then that would send the right kind of message back home to Italy.

There is something big brewing between Salvini and Di Maio. First, they sign up with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, whose second major summit is later this month. This angered both Trump and Angela Merkel.

All in a day’s work.

But the bigger news, in my mind, is the Italian parliament is pushing to repatriate the nation’s gold reserves from the Bank of ItalyTwo laws are under consideration:

One law would instruct the central bank’s owners, most of them private banks, to sell their shares to the Italian Treasury at prices from the 1930s.

The other law would declare the Italian people to be the owners of the Bank of Italy’s reserve of 2451.8 metric tons of gold, worth around $102 billion at current prices.

The Bank of Italy is mostly owed by Italian commercial banks who are now both insolvent and at risk of EU banking rules. This puts them at risk of seeing depositors bailed-in and the banks forcibly restructured overnight by the European Central Bank.

Don’t believe me? Go back and look at what happened to Banco Popular of Spain in 2017. It was sold off to Santander for $1 after the ECB declared it non-viable. It wiped out the shareholders over a weekend and life went on as if nothing had happened.

But it did happen and that did nothing to reassure investors that there is even a hope in hell of getting your investment back out of a European bank if that’s how the ECB can act. In some ways, why do you think it’s going to be so difficult for Deutsche Bank to raise the necessary capital ($6 to $10 billion) to merge with equally-insolvent Commerzbank?

If you had a choice between Deutsche and J.P. Morgan Chase at this point what would you do? US banking system may be corrupt but it isn’t stupid enough to toss aside the one thing that ensures safe-haven foreign capital flows, that investors come first.

I may not like Chase, but I’m putting my money on it over Deutsche any day of the week and especially not on a Sunday evening while Mario Draghi is on the scene.

If those Italian banks are dealt with similarly by the ECB as Banco Popular we could easily see their ownership transferred to their creditors and, by extension, the ownership of the Bank of Italy right along with it.

Talk about undermining national sovereignty!

And what’s the only thing of value on the Bank of Italy’s balance sheet? The gold.

Salvini and Di Maio’s government urging the Bank of Italy to sell the gold back to the government at 1930’s prices is a way to ensure that Italy’s gold reserves stay unencumbered and available to back any new version of the lira if things get to that point.

Like Brexit negotiations the nuclear option, clean divorce, must be a credible threat, i.e. a No-Deal Brexit and unilateral withdrawal from the euro.

This threat by the Italians has been simmering for a while and every time it comes up the talking points from the regime press are the same. It threatens the independence of the central bank. The gold could be sold to pay for populist spending programs. Blah blah blah.

No, the real threat is with the Italian gold owned by the Italian people the Italian government could start all over again with a new currency.

And that is what this is all about.

So, first, Salvini goes into the European Parliament with a solid voting bloc to disrupt proceedings and further undermine Angela Merkel’s powerbase. Second, he and Di Maio take that success back to Rome and use that to engage real EU reform of the financial system.

And if they don’t get what they want, if Merkel holds fast to her policy of Germany strip-mining of Europe via austerity, then they go on the offensive with 2410 tonnes of gold in their back pocket. This will be an easy sell as the European economy implodes further.

It’s not like Germany is in a position to drive a strong bargain with its economy rapidly plunging towards recession.

Any small shock at this point will cause a massive run on European assets. We’ve just seen a enormous move into safe-haven assets in the past month.

The European bond markets are ripe for a sharp reversal on any catalyst.

To pull all off their ‘revolution’ in the EP, however, Salvini and Le Pen will likely have to play nice with Poland on Russia, not pushing for sanctions relief just yet. To unite Euroskeptics over the next seven weeks will be difficult. But, Salvini has shown flexibility to this point with his own coalition.

What makes you think he’s not capable of bringing Poland on side?

 

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey

There are two countries that we must pay close attention to to see if a collapse is coming.  I have now elevated Turkey to being the country that can send the entire global finances into chaos.  The Lira plummeted to 5.8043 to the dollar on soaring unemployment, rising to 14.7% and youth unemployment at almost 27%. My question to Turkey is this:  how can a country’s corporates function with an interest rate at almost 18%. No wonder unemployment skyrocketed.  A few things to note:  see the huge rise in Turkey’s credit default swaps. These are simply bets on either the sovereign will default on its bonds. It is rising because Turkey cannot get a hold of enough USA dollars along with its corporate citizens.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Turkish Lira Tumbles On Soaring Unemployment, “Absolute Shitshow” Investor Meeting

The collapse in the Turkish lira is accelerating this morning, with the USDTRY rising above 5.80 for the first time since last October and CDS pushing to September highs, as the Turkish economy continues to slide ever deeper into recession, with the country on Monday reporting that a whopping 366,000 people became unemployed in the last month, sending the country’s jobless rate to the highest level in a decade.

With Ankara trapped, unwilling to let the lira devalue on fears of capital outflows even as inflation surges while the economy is urgently in need of a weaker currency, unemployment rose far more than forecast, rising to 14.7% in January – the highest since 2009 – from 13.5% a month earlier, according to Turkstat data; the number of people without jobs has reached 4.7 million people, with youth unemployment jumping to 26.7% as Turkey is facing another labor crisis.

As Bloomberg summarizes “the severity of the job losses despite a last-ditch spending blitz by the government underscores the economic challenges facing Turkey after it entered its first recession in a decade following a currency rout last year that touched off inflation.”

The most recent dismal economic data comes at a time when Erdogan’s undisputed control over Turkey appears to be slipping following the recent local elections, where many of the municipalities won by the opposition from the ruling party were those where unemployment is running in double digits, official data show. As such, the political headache for the “executive president” is only set to grow as the country finds itself deeper and deeper in what is rapidly developing as a full-blown economic depression.

Meanwhile, investors were also concerned by ongoing speculation that the ruling AKP will challenge the Istanbul election outcome which saw Turkey’s most important city flip control to the opposition, after Erdogan’s candidate lost the mayoral race in Turkey’s largest city to Ekrem Imamoglu, a blow for Islamists who had controlled Istanbul since 1994. “We are going to ask for fresh elections in Istanbul by using our right to make an extraordinary objection,” said Ali Ihsan Yavuz, a deputy head of the AKP.

Erdogan’s refusal to concede defeat in Turkey’s commercial hub has been condemned by political opponents as an attack on Turkey’s democratic foundations. Among the vocal critics of the AKP’s reaction to losses at the ballot box was Mustafa Sonmez, an economist known for opposing the government’s policies.

Sonmez was detained on Sunday and later released after being questioned largely over his tweets over his tweets following the vote, according to his lawyer, Husniye Aydin. In his latest posts on Twitter, Sonmez criticized authorities for not recognizing the opposition’s candidate as the winner of Istanbul’s mayoral race.

Making matters worse for Lira bulls, there is little hope for any near-term turnaround: “The rise in unemployment will continue – albeit at a slowing pace,” said Muammer Komurcuoglu, an Istanbul-based economist at IS Investment. “A sharp monthly deterioration in job creation continues to take place across all the sub-sectors. We are seeing very clearly the impact of the economic slowdown on unemployment.”

But beside the collapsing Turkish economy, which was to be largely expected following last summer’s financial crisis, what has mostly spooked investors is that even as Turkey rolled out a recapitalization plan for state banks, the program unveiled by Treasury & Finance Minister Berat Albayrak last week has underwhelmed investors.

In fact, as Axios reports, Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak – Erdogan’s son-in-law who replaced 2 highly respected ministers, despite having virtually no qualifications – held a closed-door meeting with hundreds of investors during the IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington last week, “and some who attended called it the worst they’ve ever had with a high-ranking government official.”

“It was an absolute shit show,” one emerging market fund manager who attended the meeting told Axios. “I’ve literally never seen someone from an administration that unprepared,” another investor said.

And, as Axios correctly notes, the disastrous meetings “could not have come at a worse time for Turkey. Investors are growing more anxious as the country heads toward recession and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeing his popularity erode.”

Incidentally, what this means is that starting tomorrow, Axios will most likely be banned in Turkey.

Meanwhile, as Turkey faces growing headwinds both domestically, as the economy slides deeper into recession, and internationally where critical foreign capital is increasingly diverting to other emerging markets, locals are accelerating their shifting toward conducting business in hard currencies such as dollars and euros, and away from the Turkish lira.

As Michael Cornelius, an EM portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price, told Axios his biggest takeaway from the week’s events was that he became more pessimistic about chances for a turnaround in Turkey.

“Not only are the fundamentals not improving, Erdogan is doing worse, investor sentiment is very, very bearish and they still have significant refinancing needs… This could be a systemic issue for emerging markets.”

The silver lining: as investors once again shun Turkey, its currency still remains solidly higher than the lows it plumbed last August. The not so silver lining: this will likely not be the case for long, with the lira sliding to 6 months lows as Turkish CDS continue to blow out ever wider…

 end

TURKEY//RUSSIA

Turkey continues to face Russia against the wishes of the USA. Watch for the USA to weaponize the dollar dollar against Turkey.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Turkey And Russia Create A $1 Billion Join Investment Fund

Turkey’s Hurriyet Daily has confirmed Russia and Turkey have agreed to create a “Russia-Turkey Investment Fund” following President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to Moscow early last week, where he met with President Putin to more broadly discuss technological cooperation, closer military ties and the future of action and local ceasefires in Syria.

The initiative was announced by the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, and Turkey Wealth Fund (TWF) last week connected to the summit.

 

Via Russia Business Today

“At the initial stage the investments in the funds’ projects will amount to 200 million euros. The total size of the Russia-Turkey Investment Fund is 900 million euros,” the RDIF said in a statement.

The agreement of the new cooperative venture was signed in the presence of Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and will be central to assisting joint Russian-Turkish projects in the areas of technology, healthcare, and urban infrastructure.

“This is an important milestone for TWF and we believe initiating investments through RTIF in focused sectors will cement the relationship of both sovereign investment funds and further strengthen the relationship between Turkey and Russia,” the managing director of the Turkey Wealth Fund, Zafer Sönmez, said in a media release.

 

President Putin and Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev, via the Russian Presidency

The TWF is described as follows:

Turkey’s wealth fund, established in 2016, holds the total or part of shares of several Turkish companies such as flag carrier Turkish Airlines, telecommunications giant Türk Telekom, state-owned lenders Ziraat and Halk, Turkish Petroleum and Borsa Istanbul.

Its portfolio also includes the petroleum pipeline company BOTAŞ, the postal services company PTT, and the national lottery Milli Piyango.

According to the fund’s website, its mission is to develop and increase the value of the country’s strategic assets and consequently provide resource for our country’s primary investments.

More broadly, the newly established Russia-Turkey Investment Fund further suggests that Turkey is fast moving into Moscow’s orbit. 

For starters, Putin and Erdogan have already met multiple times this year, which doesn’t bode well for the White House’s ultimatum weeks ago saying that “Turkey must choose.”

It appears Turkey’s “choice” is becoming evident. Washington and Ankara have been in a diplomatic showdown and crisis surrounding blocked orders of Lockheed’s F-35 stealth fighter due to Turkey’s plan to receive Russian S-400 anti-air defense systems this summer.

Erdogan again affirmed last week amid US ultimatums, “those who ask or suggest we backtrack don’t know us,” and told reporters just after meeting with Putin, “If we sign a deal on an issue, that’s a done deal. This is our sovereign right, no one can ask us to back down.’’

end

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7  OIL ISSUES

 

 

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS

VENEZUELA

 

 

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1311 UP .0014 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 111.93  down .058 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3111   UP   0.0052  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3334 UP .00017 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 14 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  RISING to 1.1311 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 10.84 POINTS OR 0.34%.

 

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 99.04 POINTS OR .33%

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .01%// EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning CLOSED UP 298.55 POINTS OR 1.37%  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 99.04 POINTS OR .33%

 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 10.84 POINTS OR 0.34%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .01%%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 298.55 POINTS OR 1.37% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1286.55

silver:$14.93

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.56% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.97 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 96.85 DOWN 12 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  MONDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.20%  UP 3 in basis point(s) yield from FRIDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.03%  DOWN 3   BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.08% UP 3   IN basis point yield from FRIDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.58 UP 5    POINTS in basis point yield from FRIDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 150 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES +.06%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.52% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1305 UP    .00096 or 86 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 111.99 UP 0.040 OR YEN DOWN 4 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3104 UP .0044 POUND UP 44  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar  DOWN  54 basis points to 1.3371

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed AT 6.7087    0N SHORE  (DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7048  (YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8160..WELL DOWN!!

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.03%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 0 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 2.55 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2,96 UP 0 in basis points on the day /

 

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.91 DOWN  6  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 0.19  0.00%

German Dax : UP 20.35 POINTS OR 0.17%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 6.03 POINTS OR  0.11%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 28.60 POINTS OR  0.30%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 34.11 POINTS OR 0.16%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 63.25 1:00 pm

Brent Oil: 70.97 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    64.32  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.04 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 4 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO +.06 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  63.48

 

 

BRENT :  71.47

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.55…   STILL DEADLY//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.96..STILL DEADLY

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1304 ( UP 8   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112. UP .0090 (YEN DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.84 DOWN 3 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.3097 UP 38 POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8054   GETTING VERY DANGEROUS

the Russian rouble 64.30   down .02 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( down 2 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3370 DOWN 20 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7087  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7080 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,+0.06%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 27.74 POINTS OR 0.11%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 8.15 POINTS OR 0.46%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.40 CLOSED UP .39 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.601%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.596

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

Greenback Gains But Banks, Bitcoin, Bullion, & Bond Yields Slide

As Stocks rise, Volumes slide…

Trade appropriately…

..

 

China:

 

China was ugly overnight with ChiNext down once again…

 

Europe ended the day practically unchanged after a solid open for Italy and Spain…

 

US markets more mixed with Small Caps and Trannies worst. S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all levitated back towards unch in the last hour…

 

Goldman’s results disappointed, erasing all of Friday’s gains and the rest of the banks slumped…

 

And judging by the yield curve, financials still have a long way to go…

 

After tagging an 11 handle on Friday, VIX bounced up to 13 intraday before leaking lower…

 

Treasury yields edged lower today – in a tight range – after Friday’s surge…

 

Having blow above 2.50% on Friday, 10Y Yields drifted very modestly lower today…

 

Following Friday’s slump, the dollar index rebounded notably today, seemingly bid as US markets opened…

 

And while VIX was flashing an 11 handle – FX Vol collapsed to a 5 year low…

 

Cryptos suddenly lurched lower as Bloomberg reported on algos gone wild…

 

Which sent Bitcoin down to $5000, before bouncing back…

 

Commodities drifted lower for most of the last 24 hours, rebounding after US markets opened with silver ending best – unchanged…

 

Gold remains below $1300…

 

Finally, US Macro data is at its weakest since July 2017 as Chinese macro data surges to its best since May 2018 – but we have seen this kind of sudden divergence before…

Don’t forget though – its not the economy, it’s central banks stupid!

end

MARKET TRADING/ EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING

end

 

ii)Market data/

 

 end

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Now wonder the Fed is worried about Stephen Moore as he sets to challenge the status quo over there.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Stephen Moore Set To Challenge Fed Status Quo

Trump’s proposed nominee to the seven-member Federal Reserve board, Stephen Moore, is planning to challenge the status quo at the US central bank, at a time when it needs continuity and stability the most. Moore said on Bloomberg that he is seeking to debunk the idea that growth causes inflation and that he is also going to “try to demystify monetary policy so it’s not conducted within a temple of secrecy.”

Moore said yesterday:”I’ll say that again: Growth does not cause inflation. We know that. When you have more output of goods and services, prices fall. And I think the Fed has been afraid of growth — there’s “growth-phobiacs” over there and I think they’re wrong.” Whether or not the FOMC committee will agree with that remains to be seen, it would be perhaps more interesting to hear his position on whether debt causes growth, which is far more topical in a world where to “buy” one dollar of GDP, nations have to increase debt by $3, $4 or more.

Last month, President Trump said that he’s planning to nominate Moore for a seat on the Fed’s board of governors. Trump’s intentions drew ire and criticism from some circles as a move motivated by politics instead of “sound” economics.

Another of Moore’s missions that’s sure to be a hit with current Fed governors is his intentions to make the Fed more transparent.

“I’m going to run on an agenda of transparency, openness. Why shouldn’t Bloomberg and C-Span and others be able to cover everything they do? Why does there have to be this temple of secrecy? So, I want openness and sunlight on the Fed,” Moore said, assuring that his future colleagues (assuming he succeeds in the nomination process) isolate him from any off the record, decision-making huddles. He certainly will never be invited to conference room E at the BIS tower in Basel where all the really important decisions are made every few weeks.

Moore further raised eyebrows for pushing the Fed to set monetary policy in response to falling commodity prices and criticizing its rate hikes for undermining Trump’s economy, after slamming it when Barack Obama was in the White House for keeping rates too low. He also called for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to be fired, though he later said he regretted that remark.

Of course, Moore still has to undergo FBI clearance and financial disclosures before being nominated, a process that usually lasts about a month.

That said, if he’s interested in transparency, perhaps he can start by explaining his recent comments, when he referred to himself as a “growth hawk”, a term that nobody seems to understand.

“We want wage increases, I want workers to be better off but I’ve said repeatedly when I get at the Fed I’m going to be the growth hawk there. I’m one of these people, I don’t believe in secular stagnation, it’s the stupidest idea I’ve ever heard,” Moore told FOX Business yesterday.

Even if he is nominated, he is certain to get the cold shoulder from his Fed colleagues: as Bloomberg reported today, Fed officials, “in their polite and coded way”, have already issued a veiled warning for the political loyalists that President Donald Trump is trying to insert into their ranks: We don’t do flimsy economics, which of course is hilarious for a central bank which last October said the neutral rate was “far away”, and just two months later had to make a humiliating U-turn after the market slumped into a very brief bear market.

“There’s a lot of analysis that goes into these decisions and a lot of dispassionate judgment about a variety of matters about the macro economy,’’ St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Thursday in Tupelo, Mississippi, apparently without a shred of self-referential sarcasm. “Even if somebody comes in with strong political views, they get converted into technocrats pretty quickly.”

And by technocrats, he means people who check the S&P several times every hour, ready to launch QE or issue a dovish soundbite should the “wealth effect” ever be threatened and jeopardize the social order with even a modest correction.

* * *

Providing some perspective on Moore’s thought process is Cornell professor, libertarian and self-described gold bug Dave Collum who saw Moore speak earlier this week, and had the chance for a 20 minute one-on-one conversation with the potential nominee. Collum described Moore as a “remarkably genuine person displaying serious humility.” He continued, “I didn’t detect even a twinge of arrogance”:

Dave Collum@DavidBCollum

(3) First, my impressions of Steve Moore. I was certainly ready to disagree with him. What I met was a remarkably genuine person displaying serious humility. I didn’t detect even a twinge of arrogance. Quite the opposite.

Collum note that Moore told students to question authority. “Experts can be dead wrong,” Moore said.

Dave Collum@DavidBCollum

(4) He opened urging the students to question authority: “Experts can be dead wrong.” Don’t we all know THAT one. A kid in Q&A said “I would defer to a professor.” I blurted out “Nooooooo!”

Moore also apparently stressed a goal of zero inflation and holding prices fixed.

Dave Collum@DavidBCollum

(6) In stream of consciousness series of pros and cons, I was hopeful when he stressed the goal of ZERO inflation. Holding prices fixed. Period. I, of course, doubt the Fed’s ability to do this but I heard no 2-3% inflation target. cc @McClellanOsc on THAT one.

Moore also didn’t seem to loathe or laugh at the gold standard, like almost every other Fed governor and academic over the past few decades.

Dave Collum@DavidBCollum

(7) Pressed on his support for the gold standard, his answer seemed to back peddle from a strong pro-gold stance years ago, but he finished fairly warm to the idea: “we could do a lot worse.”

He also noted that he “detests corporate welfare” and ended his conversation with a great one liner: “Monetary policy cannot correct for bad economic policy.” Moore also called MMT the “most insane concept imaginable”.

Dave Collum@DavidBCollum

(21) Great line: “Monetary policy cannot correct for bad economic policy.” I’m using that one.

Dave Collum@DavidBCollum

(23) Moore brought up MMT and denounced it as the most insane concept imaginable. A bunch of us were laughing at mere mention of it.

You can read Collum’s entire interaction with Moore in this thread.

END
A good article for you today on the printing of money by the state:  whether it is done by the Fed or by a private individual it is counterfeiting money..if done by the state it is legal counterfeiting
(courtesy Patrick Barron/Mises)

Counterfeiting Money Is A Crime – Whether Done by the Fed or A Private Individual

Authored by Patrick Barron via The Mises Institute,

A few years ago, shortly after the 2008 subprime lending disaster, the Fed sent a public relations team around the country to conduct supposedly “educational sessions” about how the Fed works and the wonderful things it does. The public was invited, and there was a question and answer session at the end of the presentation. One such session was held in Des Moines, Iowa. At the time I was teaching a course in Austrian economics at the University of Iowa, so I lusted at the prospect of hearing complete nonsense and having a shot at asking a question. I was not disappointed.

The educational part of the session lasted about an hour, and it became clear to me that the panel of four knew almost nothing about monetary theory. They may even have been hired especially for this grand tour, because all were relatively young, well scrubbed, and very personable–let’s face it, not your typical Fed monetary policy wonks or bank examiners! The panelists discussed only one of the Fed’s two remits–its remit to promote the economic advancement of the nation. Its other remit is to safeguard the monetary system. However, the panelists did touched upon the Fed’s control of interest rates and ensuring that money continued to flow to housing and other high profile areas of the economy.

Finally, at the end of the presentation, those with questions were asked to form a queue and advance one at a time to a microphone. I was last in a line of about a dozen. Here’s my recollection of what followed:

Me: You say that you (the Fed) have the power to increase the money supply. Is that right?

Fed: Yes.

Me: And you have indeed increased the money supply. Is that right?

Fed: Yes.

Me: And the money that you create was generated out of thin air. It wasn’t there before, but it’s there now. Is that right?

Fed (Getting nervous): Yes.

Me: And you say that creating this money out of thin air is beneficial to the economy. Is that right?

Fed (Now nervous as a cat on a hot tin roof): Yes.

Me: Then why do you prosecute counterfeiters?

(The audience, after a few seconds’ delay,: Yeah, why DO you prosecute counterfeiters?)

Fed: This meeting is closed.

My point is that there is no difference in the economic consequences to society between the Fed creating money out of thin air and a counterfeiter doing the same thing. The difference is solely legal and one of scale. Private counterfeiters are punished, and rightly so, whereas the Fed is lauded for its actions.

Counterfeiters are punished because printing money is the same thing as stealing. A counterfeiter does not print money only to stuff it under his mattress in order to feel wealthy. He knows that he needs to pass his fake money on to someone else in exchange for some valuable good or service. In this recent Mises Wire article,Frank Shostak refers to such action as getting something for nothing. Richard Cantillon observed that the first receivers of the new money benefit at the expense of all subsequent receivers — the Cantillon Effect. In arecent Mises Wire article Carmen Elena Dorobat explained that the Cantillon Effect can extend internationally. Therefore, nations accepting dollars for payment in the later stages of fiat money expansion suffer a transfer of wealth to the early receivers of the new dollars, mostly the banks and their customers in the US.

Some may respond that, “Yes, it is true that the government abrogates to itself and itself alone the power to print money out of thin air, but it abrogates many powers to itself and itself alone. The power to print money out of thin air is just one of them.” Let’s take two examples — the power to wage war and the power to force some to fund welfare for the benefit of others . The difference is one of ethics vs. consequences.

No civilized government allows its citizens on their own volition to kill foreigners. Yet in times of war government will order its citizens to kill foreigners and actually reward them — usually with honors rather than money — for doing so. Likewise no civilized government allows its citizens to decide for themselves that the wealthier members of society must pay the less fortunate. In other words you or I cannot approach a wealthy person and force him, at the point of a gun, to hand money over to some who are less wealthy. Society would collapse into a Hobbesian anarchy of a war of all against all.

Ethics vs. Consequences

Yet most of us accept, even if reluctantly, that government can force us to go to war and force us to pay taxes to fund welfare programs. The key is that government does not claim that the consequences are different; i.e., if Americans kill foreigners, the consequences are the same whether as a private citizens or as a soldier — foreigners die. Likewise, if as a private citizen I play Robin Hood and take from the rich and give to the poor, the consequences are the same if the government does it via taxes. But in the case of money printing out of thin air, the government claims that only good results accrue from its actions yet bad results accrue from private actions. Have you ever heard a government official claim that, yes, money printing does indeed cause misallocation of resources and, yes, it does indeed cause a net loss to society, but its actions are necessary in order to benefit…fill-in-the-blank? Of course not. One only hears how wonderful the Fed is that it has created money out of thin air in order to prime the economic pump, so to speak, or some such nonsense. The private counterfeiter steals from others for his own or his cohorts’ benefit, but the Fed claims that it’s absolutely similar actions have only good results for everyone in society.

Hiding the Truth with Statistics

The Fed tries to mask the wealth destructive effects of its money printing by focusing on the benefits accrued to some targeted economic sectors, such as housing. Statistics will show that the targeted beneficiary did in fact gain from monetary expansion. But the Fed ignores the cost to the rest of the economy, which is widespread and nearly impossible to measure. This is commonly referred to as concentration of benefit and dispersion of cost. One can quantify the former but not the latter. In reality no net wealth was created. In fact wealth was destroyed. Money printing disrupts the structure of production and causes malinvestment that must eventually be liquidated and never recovered. In other words, the losers on aggregate lose more than the winners gain.

The Cantillon Effect and resultant temporary boom are apparent when the counterfeiter acts locally. He buys big, flashy cars and lives large until merchants realize that they have accepted phony money. They are the losers. Even if the counterfeiter’s money is not detected but continues to pass from hand to hand the same as other legal tender, the structure of production will be permanently disrupted and capital will be consumed. Just remember Professor Shotak’s lesson that, since counterfeiters get something for nothing, wealth will be consumed.

The pernicious effect of the local counterfeiter pales in comparison with the Fed. A local counterfeiter may be able to pass several thousand dollars or even a million dollars of phony money, but in the nineteen years from January 2000 to January 2019 the Fed has increased the monetary base — bank reserves plus cash in circulation, over which the Fed has absolute control — from $0.591 trillion to $3.323 trillion. That’s an increase of almost three trillion dollars! Yet the Fed tours the country touting its wonders to mostly fawning audiences…except perhaps in Des Moines, Iowa.

end
The tariff war imposed by Trump is having a terrible effect on USA whiskey exports as they plunge badly last month
(courtesy zerohedge)

Hangover: U.S. Whiskey Exports Plunge As Trade War Deepens

American whiskey exports faced a severe hangover in the second half of 2018, taking a dangerous hit from retaliatory tariffs by top trading partners following President Donald Trump’s duties on steel and aluminum imports, a trade group announced Thursday.

The first shot in President Trump’s trade war against trading partners was fired off in May 2018. Hefty tariffs were slapped on aluminum and steel imports from the European Union, Mexico, and Canada. Steel imports from those places were taxed at 25% and aluminum imports at 10%. Those were large numbers that had a retaliatory effect on American liquor exports to those regions.

Exports of bourbon, whiskey, and rye whiskey plunged by 11% in the back half of 2018 compared to the prior-year six-month period as the true impact from the trade war started to filter through, the Distilled Spirits Council said.

Last month, at the Annual Economic Briefing, the council revealed that American whiskey exports fell by 8.2% between July and November as compared to the same period in 2017. But for some strange reason, the council excluded all trade data from December.

“With the full year data in hand it is clear that the retaliatory tariffs are having a significant and growing impact on American Whiskey exports, which had been a bright spot for U.S. agriculture exports,” said Council President and CEO Chris Swonger. “The damage to American Whiskey exports is now accelerating, and this is collateral damage from ongoing global trade disputes.”

Export data has reinforced concerns among whiskey producers that President Trump’s trade war would severely damage the export segment of their companies.

And they were right. European Union, American whiskey exports collapsed by 13.4% in the second half of 2018 when tariffs stalled shipments, the council said.

The European Union accounts for 60% of total American whiskey exports in 2018. The United Kingdom, Spain, Germany, and France are top export regions for American spirits.

Whiskey exports to the European Union jumped by 33% in the first half of 2018, largely due to stockpiling of whiskey supplies by American distillers to get ahead of tariffs.

Despite turmoil in the second half of 2018, American whiskey exports increased by 5.1% overall last year, to a record $1.18 billion. This was due to a 28% jump in whiskey exports in the first six months of the year. Overall, last year’s increase was down significantly from the annual growth rate of 16% in 2017.

With the council’s 2019 outlook projecting more turbulence, it seems that the industry is in the beginning innings of a crisis. Expect the next round of data from the council to be much worse.

end

Obama’s Border Patrol Chief: Migrant Crisis ‘Worst In The History Of The Country’

A second ex-Obama admin official has spoken up over the crisis at the southern US border.

Mark Morgan, a career FBI official who served as Border Patrol chief during the last six months of the Obama administration told Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo on Monday that the US-Mexico border crisis has reached historic proportions and is the worst in the history of the country.

“this isn’t just a crisis, this is a crisis like we’ve never experienced in the history of this country since we started tracking numbers,” said Morgan, who also addressed false statistics floating around comparing the numbers of migrants to those of the 1990s.

There’s still this very false talking point out there that — well, back in the ’90s, the numbers were higher — over a million.” Well, first of all, again, you got to remember they were Mexican adults, we were moving, deporting 90 percent of them. With the broken asylum laws and other loopholes that are there, we’re seeing 65 to 70 percent increase in family units, and because of those broken laws, we’re allowing them in. This year, we’re expected to hit a million, but we’re going to let 650,000 into the country. That’s driving this crisis, driving our resources, being overwhelmed. We have to address it.

In late march, former Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson said that the situation at the southern border has reached a crisis, and that the number of apprehensions has exceeded anything he encountered during his time in the Obama administration.

 

SWAMP STORIES

Pelosi is having great difficulty reining in AOC and her gang of 5.

( zerohedge)

Pelosi Slams AOC’s Progressive Posse In Congress: “It’s Like Five People” 

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi seems to be having a hard time accepting Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez being the “new face” of the Democratic party.

In a 60 Minutes interview this weekend, interviewer Lesley Stahl asked Pelosi about whether the different factions within the Democratic party are fractured, singling out

Stahl: “You are contending with a group in Congress. Over here on the left flank are these self-described socialists. On the right these moderates. You yourself said that you’re the only one who can unify everybody. And the questions is – can you?

Pelosi: By in large, whatever orientation they came to Congress with, they know that we have to hold the center. That we have to go down the mainstream.

Stahl: They know that?

Pelosi: They do

Stahl: But it doesn’t look like that. It looks as if it’s fractured…. You have these wings – AOC and her group on one side

Pelosi interjects: “well that’s like five people.

The Congressional Progressive Caucus has 98 members, making it the second largest group in Congress, according to the New NY Post, which notes that AOC is one of the group’s most prominent freshmen members.

Seven Democratic House members, including Ocasio-Cortez, are supported by the progressive political action the Justice Democrats, which Pelosi could also have been referring to.

On several occasions now, Pelosi has downplayed any splits within her ranks — and also tried to dim some of Ocasio-Cortez’s star power.

In a recent interview with USA Today, the House Speaker pointed out that votes are more significant than Twitter followers — a remark that was also interpreted to be a dig at AOC. –NY Post

“While there are people who have a large number of Twitter followers, what’s important is that we have a large number of votes on the floor of the House,” said Pelosi.

What’s not to love Nancy?

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

 

 

 

 

I WILL SEE YOU TUESDAY NIGHT
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