MAY 3/GOLD UP $9.35 TO $1280.15//SILVER UP 34 CENTS TO $14.95//REGISTERED COMEX GOLD INVENTORY DOWN TO ONLY 6.6 TONNES//QUEUE JUMPING HUGE IN SILVER AT 1.375 MILLION OZ///ALSO QUEUE JUMPING IN GOLD//BEIJING WARNS TRUMP TO COMPROMISE OR ELSE !!//DEUTSCHE BANK AND COMMERZBANK AGAIN FAIL TO MAKE A DEAL AT A MERGER//STRONG JOBS REPORT EVEN THOUGH 100% OF THE GAIN WAS THROUGH THE B/D PLUG//POOR WAGE GROWTH NUMBERS FINALLY ALLOWS GOLD AND SILVER TO RISE TODAY//A MUST VIEW SWAMP STORY TONIGHT//

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1280.15  UP $9.35 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $14.95 UP 34 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  $1279.05

 

 

silver: $14.94

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 18/27

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,269.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/02/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 05/06/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 C JP MORGAN 18
690 C ABN AMRO 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 8 8
800 C MAREX SPEC 4
905 C ADM 15
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 27 27
MONTH TO DATE: 145

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 27 NOTICE(S) FOR 2700 OZ (0.0839 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  145 NOTICES FOR 14500 OZ  (.4510 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MAY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

362 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1,810,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 2901 for 14,505,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :$5747  UP $237

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $5756 UP  264

 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 762 CONTRACTS FROM 201,540 UP TO 202,302 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 13 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. ,LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED FOR SILVER BUT IT NOW COMMENCES FOR GOLD. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

 0 FOR MAY, 0 FOR JUNE, 1157 FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1157 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1157 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1157 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 5.79 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 13 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

AND NOW 17.750 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MAY:

6824 CONTRACTS (FOR 3 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 6824 CONTRACTS) OR 34.12 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2274 CONTRACTS OR 11.37 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY:  34.12 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 4.87% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          775.97    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 965 DESPITE THE 13 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1157 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS RESUMED THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES TODAY.

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 1919 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1157 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 762 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 13 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.61 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

here is the COT up to April 30 and it is clear that we witnessed the liquidation of spreaders in silver

Silver COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
77,120 74,984 13,585 75,855 97,215 166,560 185,784
1,231 -1,015 4,530 -14,545 -13,177 -17,844 -18,722
Traders
108 58 48 41 35 171 121
Small Speculators  
Long Short Open Interest  
30,050 10,826 196,610  
-4,659 -3,781 -22,503  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Silver Report – Positions as of Tuesday, April 30, 2019

 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.008 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 144% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 362 NOTICE(S) FOR  1,810,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ AND NOW MAY:  17,750,000 OZ..
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 9,118 CONTRACTS, TO 442,992 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A DROP IN PRICE OF $1.20//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 6848 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 6848 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS, JUNE 2020  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 442,992. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 15,966 CONTRACTS: 9118 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 6848 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 15,966 CONTRACTS OR 1,599,600 OZ OR 49.66 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF  $12.30….AND DESPITE THAT FALL, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN TONNAGE OF 49.66 TONNES!!!!!!.?????????????????????????????????????????? 

AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS HAVE NOW SWITCHED TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

 

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ENTER A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI: 

“YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF  SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 18,261 CONTRACTS OR 1,826,100 OR 56.79 TONNES (3 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 6087 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 56.79 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 56.79/3550 x 100% TONNES =0.627% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     1872.38 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 9118 DESPITE THE FALL IN PRICING ($12.30) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 6848 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 6848 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC GAIN OF 15,966 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

6848 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 9118 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 49.66 TONNES). ..AND THIS STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN PRICE OF $12.30 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. HOWEVER A HUGE PERCENTAGE OF THE GAIN IN OI WAS DUE TO THE COMMENCEMENT OF THE SPREADING OPERATION AS I HAVE OUTLINED ABOVE.

 

 

 

we had:  27 notice(s) filed upon for 2700 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $9.35  TODAY 

STRANGE!!

 

ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.52 TONNES

IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE REACHED THE BOTTOM OF THE BARREL FOR PHYSICAL GOLD BEING SUPPLIED TO THE CROOKS.

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY:

A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

A DEPOSIT OF 843,000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.691 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 762 CONTRACTS from 201,540 UPTO 202,302 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED THEIR LIQUIDATION IN SILVER BUT HAVE NOW MORPHED INTO GOLD..

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE:

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 0 FOR MAY, FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 1157 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1157 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 965 CONTRACTS TO THE 1157 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 1919  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 9.595 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL AND NOW 17.750 MILLION OZ FOR MAY

 

 

RESULT: A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 13 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1157 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 15.84 POINTS OR .52%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 137.37 POINTS OR .46%   /The Nikkei closed //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .04%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7345 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 63.26 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.38 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7345 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.74756/ TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 China/Chinese affairs

i)China/USA

Now it is Beijing that warns the uSA to compromise or else trade talks will collapse.

( zerohedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)GERMANY

The hopeless attempt to get these two losers together…merger talks collapse again

( zerohedge)

ii)Bill Blain on the greed of people/corporations

(Bill Blain)

 

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)A good one:  The interview of Bart Chilton with Chris Marcus:  is this a voice from the grave?

( Ted Butler/GATA)

 

ii)With Moore gone, we are now witnessing a huge fight at the Federal Reserve. The Wall Street Journal has a high regard for Moore and are very upset that tactics were used to make him unelectable by the Senate.

(courtesy New York Sun/GATA)

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//Jobs report

a)Despite a supposedly strong jobs report, an increase of 263,000, the pundits always looks for wage growth and it is muted. Also the labour participation report fell back to 62.8% from 63.00% This caused gold/silver to rise.

( zerohedge)

b)Trump will like this;  Hispanic unemployment falls to record lows.

( zerohedge)
c)The real story:  Supply chain hiring grinds to a halt.

( zerohedge)

 

 

ii)Market data

The ISM data is much more reliable that Markit.  Services sector is by far the better indicator for growth in the USA as the manufacturing sector has been falling for years.  Today the ISM data shows that services has slumped to its weakest since 2017.

( zerohedge)

ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)this is very technical but it is far more important to understand where this is heading.  For years now the effective Fund rates have been in the middle of two rates:  1/  The IOER or the excess funds owned by the banks and which they loan back to the Fed and are paid a very high interest rates  and 2.  the lower floor Rep rate.  If the Effective funds rate travels above the IOER it means that the Fed has a liquidity problem..the banks even though they have 1.5 trillion dollars in excess reserves….it is not enough and they need more liquidity.  It generally means that the Fed is losing control.

( zerohedge)

b)Another good indicator that the USA economy is being decimated:  heavy truck orders in April down a huge 57% year/year
(courtesy zerohedge)

c)Biden puts his foot in his mouth again:  The uSA Defense Dept says that China plans to replace the USA as top power.  Biden stated today that China is no competition

( zerohedge)

SWAMP STORIES

As promised, Barr launches a wide ranging probe into the 2016 FBU spying and the genesis of the Trump Russian collusion hoax

( zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 9118 CONTRACTS.TO A LEVEL OF 442,992 DESPITE THE LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($12.30) IN YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING) 

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 6848 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

0 FOR JUNE ’19: 6848 CONTRACTS , DEC; 0 CONTRACTS: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6848 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 15,966 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 6848 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 9118 COMEX CONTRACTS.

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 15,966 contracts OR 1,596,600 OZ OR 49.66 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of MAY and here the open interest stands at 153 contracts, having LOST 0 contracts. We had 30 notices served yesterday so we gained 30 contracts or an additional 3000  oz will stand as they guys refused to morph into a London based forward as well as negating a fiat bonus

The next contract month after May is June and here the open interest rose by 1039 contracts up to 297,042.  July received another 29 contracts to stand at 46.  After July the next active month is August and here the OI rose by 8545 contracts up to 75,274 contracts.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 27 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  2700  OZ. (0.0839 TONNES)

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 762 CONTRACTS FROM 201,540 UP TO 202,302(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S HUGE OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A 13 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.  HERE WE HAVE 1011 OPEN INTEREST STAND SO FAR FOR A LOSS OF ONLY 112 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 386 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO IN ESSENCE WE GAINED ANOTHER WHOPPING 274 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 1,370,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. SILVER MUST BE SCARCE AT THE COMEX. QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE. WE HAVE NOW SURPASSED THE INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING WHICH OCCURED ON APRIL 30.2019

 

 

 

THE NEXT MONTH AFTER MAY IS THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF  JUNE.  HERE THIS MONTH GAINED 61 CONTRACTS UP TO 884. AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY, (THE SECOND LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR FOR SILVER) AND HERE THIS MONTH GAINED 792 CONTRACTS UP TO 154,688 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 362 notice(s) filed for 1,810,000 OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  269,199  CONTRACTS 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  317,194  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  MAY/GOLD

MAY 3 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
27 notice(s)
 2700 OZ
(0.0839TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
126 contracts
(12600 oz)
0.3919 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
145 notices
14500 OZ
.4510 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else:  zero oz

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside/ again zero amount arrived  today

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

(maybe investors are taking our advice by not storing their gold at the comex.)

this will hurt our bankers as they need to replace leased gold as all gold stored at the gold comex is unallocated.

 

Gold withdrawals;

i) zero withdrawals.

total gold withdrawals; nil

 

 

and they are indicative of a delivery
i) Out of Delaware: 803.68 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Delaware

FOR THE MAY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 27 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 18 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (145) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (153 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (27 x 100 oz per contract) equals 27,100 OZ OR 0.8426 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of MAY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (145 x 100 oz)  + (153)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (27 x 100 oz )which equals 27,100 oz standing OR 0.8426 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of MAY.

We gained 30 contracts or an additional 3000 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into a London based forwards. Queue jumping continues where we left off last month in gold and for that matter in silver.  We now have two precious metals undergoing queue jumping as the bankers scramble to obtain physical metal.

 

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 6.604 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 0.8429 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  212,322.479 oz or  6.604 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,782,015.791 oz 242.05 tonnes

 

 

FOR COMPARISON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR APRIL 2018 AND FINAL STANDING APRIL 30 2018

 

 

AT FIRST DAY NOTICE MAY 1 2018: WE HAD 1.284 TONNES OF GOLD STAND.  BY MONTH’S END:  2.27 TONNES AS WE HAD ONE QUEUE JUMPING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

IN THE LAST 31 MONTHS 113 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

MAY 3 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
625,484.120 oz
CNT
Delaware
Scotia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
600,947.320oz
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
362
CONTRACT(S)
(1,810,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
649 contracts
3,245,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 2901 contracts

14,505,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 149.469 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.80% of all official comex silver. (149 million/305 million)

 

into Scotia:  600,947.320 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  600,947.320 oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

i) Out of CNT: 19,897.900 oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 4746.600 oz

iii) Out of Scotia:  600,839.600 oz

 

 

total withdrawals: 625,484.120 oz

 

we had 2 adjustment :

out of CNT:  486,268.245 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

ii) Out of Brinks: 76,434.48 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed back into the customer account of Brinks

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  95.176 million

total dealer + customer silver:  307.709 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MAY 2019. contract month is represented by 362 contract(s) FOR  1,810,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2901x 5,000 oz = 14,505,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (1011) and the number of notices served upon today (362 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY/2019 contract month: 2901(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY( 1011) -number of notices served upon today (362)x 5000 oz equals 17,750,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month.

We GAINED 274 contracts or an additional 1,370,000 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus for their efforts.

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON VS LAST YEAR:

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE APRIL 30/2018 (FOR THE MAY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH) WE HAD 24.11 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY.  BY MONTH END WE HAD HUGE QUEUE JUMPING AND THUS 36.285 MILLION OZ EVENTUALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  85,176 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 71,009 CONTRACTS..

 

..

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 71,009 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 355 million  OZ 50.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -4.61% (MAY 3/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -2.37% to NAV (MAY 3/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.61%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.84 TRADING 12.25/DISCOUNT 4.56

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $9.35 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.52

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD UP $4.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES//

APRIL 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.2//ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 746.69 TONNES TONNES

APRIL 25//WITH GOLD UP $.05 TODAY  (BASICALLY FLAT) NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

 

APRIL 24 WITH GOLD UP  $6.00 TODAY// TWO TRANSACTIONS: 1)A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD AND THEN II) ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

APRIL 23./WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES//

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD UP $1.75//A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT752.27 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES AT THE GLD WHICH WAS USED IN YESTERDAY’S RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 752.27 TONNES

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.03

APRIL 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $2.10 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757..85 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.45 AGAIN TODAY, THE CROOKS AGAIN RAIDED THE COOKE JAR BY 2.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.49 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40: THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 761.67 TONNES.

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD UP$1.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF PHYSICAL GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.55 TONNES

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.29 TONNES

APRIL 3:WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS: ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL: 3.81 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  764.29 TONNES

APRIL 2//WOW! WE LOST A WHOPPING 16.16 TONNES OF GOLD WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $1.80//INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.10

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

MAY 3/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 745.52 tonnes

*IN LAST 591 TRADING DAYS: 188.45 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 491 TRADING DAYS: A NET 22.61 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN LOST INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE REACHED THE BOTTOM OF THE BARREL FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE GLD.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MAY 3//WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 843,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/TOTAL INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.691 MILLION OZ//

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 13 CENTS, MIRACUOUSLY THE AUTHORITIES ADD 2.869 MILLION OZ OF SILVER BACK INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.848 MILLION OZ//

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ////

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 29/ WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 26//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 23./WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A SHOCKING 2.8122 MILLION PAPER OZ WERE ADDED INTO SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15: WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 12 WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 750,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ//

April 10/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:  THE CROOKS CANNOT RAID ANY SILVER BECAUSE THERE IS NONE: INVENTORY RETS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 4/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP TWO CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/ WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ FROM THE SLV TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167

 

 

 

MAY 3/2019:

 

Inventory 315.691 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.11/ and libor 6 month duration 2.64

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .53/

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.46%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.74

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.28

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold To Gain as Global Markets Brace for Turmoil: Reuters Poll

Gold bars sit across a one kilo gold bar at bullion dealers GoldCore, in London, U.K. in March 2010. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

(Reuters) – A slowing global economy, stock market turmoil, delays to interest rate rises and potential U.S. dollar weakness are expected to boost average annual gold prices to their highest since 2013, a Reuters poll found.

Gold will average $1,322 an ounce this year and $1,369 in 2020, the median forecasts returned by the poll of 34 analysts and traders showed.

The forecasts were higher than those from a similar poll three months ago which saw averages of $1,305 this year and $1,350 in 2020.

Gold prices have slipped in recent weeks to around $1,280, under pressure from a stronger dollar, which makes bullion more expensive for buyers with other currencies, and rising stock markets which offered investors better returns.

Helping push gold lower, some investors have taken money out of gold-backed exchange-traded funds and speculators ramped up bets on lower prices on the Comex exchange, which now outnumber wagers on higher prices.

But analysts said slowing global economic growth, the increasing likelihood of stock market corrections, a pause in interest rate rises and a likely weakening of the dollar would bring money back to the metal.

Gold is traditionally seen as a safe place to invest during times of uncertainty, as it tends to retain its value while other assets slide.

“We expect falling risk appetite and a surge in safe-haven demand to be the key factor driving both gold and silver prices,” said Capital Economics analyst Ross Strachan.

Higher interest rates are bad for gold because they raise bond yields, making non-yielding bullion less attractive to investors.

A Reuters poll of 70 currency strategists showed they expected the U.S. dollar, which in April reached its strongest in almost two years, to slip over the coming year.

The gold forecast for this year is 4 percent higher than last year’s average price of $1,268 and would be the highest average since 2013.

But it suggests gold will struggle to break convincingly above recent peaks of $1,374.91 hit in 2016 and $1,366.07 last year – which together form strong technical resistance.

“We need a strong impetus to break that resistance,” said LBBW analyst Frank Schallenberger.

“(But) with central banks buying more and more gold … interest rates staying low and economic perspectives looking dull, gold will eventually go up,” he said.

For silver, poll respondents forecast an average price of $16.05 an ounce this year, up from $16 in the poll three months ago, and $17 in 2020, down from $17.20 in the previous poll.

Editors Note: We would prefer not to get into the forecasting and predictions business as “crystal ball gazing” is fraught with uncertainty at the best of times.

This is particularly the case in 2019 given the massive macroeconomic, geopolitical, monetary and systemic uncertainty and risk of today.

It is worth remembering that many, if not most, of the precious metal poll respondents (both Bloomberg and Reuters) were bearish in gold’s last bull market despite gold rising every year from 2003 to 2012.

We were one of the few respondents who were positive on gold in those years. Analysts who were bullish were only mildly so. Yet gold saw massive gains and was the best performing asset in those years, particularly during the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2011.

We expect gold and silver to again outperform stock and bond markets. U.S. equity markets, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq etc are back at all time record highs, while precious metal prices remain very undervalued. The record highs are largely due to the massive out-performance of the FAANG stocks, some of which saw serious selling pressure this week.

It is a great time to re-balance portfolios. It makes sense and is prudent to take profits from stocks and bonds at these levels and acquire safe haven gold.

What is far more important than the price of gold is the value of gold as a hedge and safe haven asset. This has been seen throughout history including during the global financial crisis and indeed in the academic and independent research on gold in recent years.

Must Read Guide: 7 Real Risks to Your Gold Ownership

News & Commentary

Central Banks Are Ditching the Dollar for Gold (Bloomberg)

Central bank binge buying fuels red-hot gold demand – WGC (Reuters)

Gold poised for gains as global markets brace for turmoil: Reuters poll (Reuters)

Societe Generale resigns as London gold and silver market maker – (Reuters)

Turkish central bank to set up lira-for-gold swap market (Reuters)

Markets Have Misread the Fed (Bloomberg)

When central banks don’t understand the markets, watch out (Marketwatch.com)

Australia Is On The Brink Of A Housing Collapse That Resembles 2008 (Forbes.com)

In Memory of Bart Chilton (ArcadiaEconomics.com)

Bart Chilton: A voice from the grave? (Silverseek.com)

OECD is a clear and present danger to Irish prospects (IrishTimes.com)

Recent Market Updates

– Global Gold Demand Gains In Q1, 2019: Central Banks Buy Gold Bullion and ETFs See Inflows

– Newstalk Interview: Investors Looking To Store Gold In Dublin Rather Than London

– Australia and Many Property Markets To Crash Like Ireland?

– Death of Inflation and the Death of Equities?

– SWOT Analysis: Venezuela Sells $400 Million Worth Of Gold Bullion

– World’s Central Banks Want More Gold – India May Buy 1.5M Ounces In 2019

– Russia’s 2019 Gold Rush Continues: Buys 600,000 Ounces of Gold In March

– When Should You Sell Your Gold and Silver? (GoldCore Video)

– Understanding Gold: A Step By Step Guide To Gold As An Asset Class

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 
end

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

A good one:  The interview of Bart Chilton with Chris Marcus:  is this a voice from the grave?

(courtesy Ted Butler/GATA)



iii) Other Physical stories

-END-

Gold trading/

 

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7345/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7476   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 15.84 POINTS OR .52%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 137.37 POINTS OR .46%

 

2. Nikkei closed

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN

 

USA dollar index RISES TO 97.99/Euro RISES TO 1.1152

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.52/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 61.70 and Brent: 70.45

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  UP/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +04%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.51% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.99%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.51: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.35

3k Gold at $1270.15 silver at: 14.67   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 1/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.38

3m oil into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and 70 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.49 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0200 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1376 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.04%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.56% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.94%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.9749.. VERY DEADLY

Global Markets, S&P Futures A Sea Of Green Ahead Of Payrolls

Global stocks were higher, with European markets and US equity futures a sea of green on the last day of the week, as China and Japan remained closed for holidays, as world stocks battled to avoid their first weekly fall in six weeks on Friday while investors waited to see if April US jobs data would give the Federal Reserve another reason to dismiss rate cut calls.

 

While Asian stocks were broadly flat, mostly due to subdued volumes as China and Japan remain closed, and the MSCI Index of Asian stocks closing just 0.02% higher, it appears that Asia once again was instrumental in pushing US futures higher as the Emini rebounded as Hong Kong shares rose 0.4 percent, while Australia gained 0.1%, while Korea’s KOSPI dipped 0.5 percent.

There was more action in Europe, whose bourses were higher across the board as earnings from banks HSBC and Societe Generale cheered traders and encouraging Adidas profits sent the German sportswear firm’s shares surging 7% to a record high.

On Thursday, the S&P dropped on concerns about the US-China trade deal, giving up an initial attempt to regain their record highs and closed in the red, weighed down by energy shares. Oil prices had plunged again after U.S. crude production output set a new record, though the losses were capped by the intensifying political crisis in Venezuela and the stopping of Iranian oil sanction waivers by Washington.

Yet while stocks were broadly higher, bond and commodity markets remained firmly on the backfoot with most benchmark government bond yields up and Brent sliding back toward $70 a barrel again for what will be its worst week in over two months.

Quoted by Reuters, UBP strategist Koon Chow said it all pointed to a little bit of the steam coming out of the markets after a flying start to the year: “For the last four months it has been the unwinding the extreme pessimism that had built up (last year)” he said, referring to trade war nerves and the slowdown in many of the world’s largest economies. “So here we are now in search of the next big thing, and I think today, and for the last few weeks, it is a views and portfolio repositioning exercise.”

Some of the overnight bullishness was attributed to trader expectations for today’s jobs report. The only problem is that nobody knows if it’s better for the report to show bad or good news: since the recent surge in markets has been due to a dovish Fed, any unexpected overheating in job or wage gains, will likely further pressure risk. April payrolls, due at 830am ET, are forecast to show 185,000 net new jobs were added in April and the unemployment rate at a steady 3.8%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 3.3%, just shy of the post-crisis highs.

Over in the UK, the latest local council elections results show Labour Party councillors dropped by 53 councillors to 601 and Conservative party councillors dropped by 117 to 512 in England. Instead, voters turned to alternative parties which saw a significant swell in support for the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and independent candidates.

In the currency markets, the dollar strengthened, and the BBDXY rose to session highs ahead of the payrolls report although it may dip soon as an army of Fed doves hits the microphones: there are no less than eight Federal Reserve policymakers due to speak on Friday.The euro stayed lower even as inflation data beat estimates. The pound led G-10 losses but was still set for its biggest weekly gain in almost two months amid optimism a compromise Brexit deal may be struck next week. Australian and New Zealand dollars both fell as speculators wagered both countries could see interest cuts next week. The Aussie slipped below psychological support of $0.7000 overnight to the lowest since early January while the kiwi dollar drifted closer to a recent five-month trough of $0.6581. The weakness in the antipodean currencies also came as the U.S. dollar gained on remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell earlier this week that a recent weakness in inflation owed to “transitory” factors. That led traders to start paring expectations for a Fed rate cut. Futures now imply about a 49 percent probability of an easing at year-end, down from 61 percent late on Wednesday, according to CME Group’s FedWatch program.

In commodities, West Texas crude steadied, but was in the red in early London trade down 0.3% at $61.65 a barrel, while Brent slipped 0.5 percent to $70.42. Copper fluctuated, still on course for the biggest weekly drop since August. Bitcoin climbed to its highest level since November, advancing toward $6,000.

Other economic releases include wholesale inventories, Markit services PMI. American Tower, Dominion Energy are among companies reporting earnings. There is an avalanche of Fed speakers today including Williams, Bowman, Bullard, Daly, Kaplan and Mester.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2,928.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 390.15
  • MXAP up 0.02% to 162.61
  • MXAPJ up 0.02% to 540.03
  • Nikkei down 0.2% to 22,258.73
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,617.93
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 30,081.55
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,078.34
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 39,153.64
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.04% to 6,335.80
  • Kospi down 0.7% to 2,196.32
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to 0.043%
  • Euro down 0.07% to $1.1164
  • Brent Futures down 1% to $70.06/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 2.181%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to 0.999%
  • Brent Futures down 1% to $70.06/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.05% to $1,270.07
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.06% to 97.89

Top Headline News from Bloomberg

  • Temporary federal government hiring for the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2020 count may give nonfarm payrolls a boost starting with the April jobs report due Friday, economists say
  • A Brexit backlash hit both main parties in U.K. local elections, with smaller parties gaining seats. The news increases hopes that a compromise Brexit deal could be struck next week as both Labour and the Conservatives attempt to bring an end to the divisive issue
  • ECB’s Weidmann sees signs of pickup in Germany economy, with the current weak phase only “temporary”. Urges the ECB to press ahead with its exit from unconventional monetary policy if inflation allows
  • ECB’s Rehn also sees evidence of a recovery, but warns not to ‘jump the gun’ on first green shoots
  • Oil tumbled as much as 4% in New York, lowest levels in a month, as American crude inventories hit highest level in two years and Russia missed targets for production cuts in April
  • PIMCO Chief U.S. Economist Tiffany Wilding says many on the Fed may favor preemptively cutting rates if they see risks as to the downside, even if a recession is not expected
  • European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker is reported to have said that Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann is a suitable candidate to take over from Mario Draghi as ECB president
  • Global Times said in analysis that many observers are wondering if China-U.S. trade talks have hit an impasse as there were few details revealed after the latest meetings on Wednesday
  • Billionaire investor Warren Buffett told CNBC in an interview that Berkshire Hathaway Inc. has been buying Amazon.com Inc. shares and the purchases will show up in a regulatory filing later this month
  • Inflation in the euro area accelerated more than expected and a core measure jumped the most in nearly a year, capping a week of encouraging data for the European Central Bank
  • Donald Trump doesn’t want anyone to see his tax returns. Not the public. Not Congress. But at least one group has peered into the carefully guarded trove and could provide some insight — a team from Deutsche Bank AG

Asian equity markets were mixed with the region cautious ahead of the looming US NFP data and after losses on Wall St where the fallout from the FOMC disappointment persisted and the energy sector underperformed on weaker oil prices. ASX 200 (U/C) swung between gains and losses with notable weakness seen in energy names after WTI crude declined by more than 3% and with financials subdued after Macquarie’s full-year results which improved from the prior year although it flagged a decline for FY20. KOSPI (-0.7%) and Hang Seng (+0.4%%) were negative with South Korea heavily focused on earnings and with risk appetite in Hong Kong sapped by poor GDP data which showed its economy grew at the slowest pace in nearly a decade. However, the Hang Seng is well off intraday lows as trade related news provided a glimmer of optimism with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang to travel to the US on Tuesday and is expected to close the trade deal next week, while US Commerce Secretary Ross suggested they are in the end-game of trade negotiations. As a reminder, mainland China and Japan remained closed for holidays.

Top Asian News

  • Chip Makers Lead Asia Gains on Hope of Better Earnings, Orders
  • Foreign Fund Inflows Into Indonesian Bonds Surpass 2018 Level

Major European indices have been gradually grinding higher throughout the session [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%], diverging from the cautious trade seen overnight where sentiment was somewhat deterred by the upcoming US jobs report and mixed US-China trade reports. There is no real standout European bourse this morning with gains relatively broad based; although, the SMI (+0.2%) while positive is underperforming its peers, with the index weighed on by Swiss Re (-2.6%) after the Co. posted a miss on Q1 net. In a similar fashion sectors are predominantly in the green with the exception of the Technology sector which is weighed on by heavyweight Sap (-0.4%) in the red following on from reports yesterday that up to 50k companies which are using the Co’s software are at risk of a security breach; the Co. state that guidance on resolving these issues was published in both 2009 and 2013. Other notable movers this morning include banking giant HSBC (+2.4%) who are firmer post-earnings where they beat on both Q1 revenue and pre-tax profit. Separately, but also boosted by earnings are Adidas (+6.1%) with the Co. also topping the Dax (+0.3%) after confirming FY guidance and reporting strong net income & operating figures. Elsewhere, and at the other end of the Stoxx 600 are Intu Properties (-6.4%), after stating that they see FY19 LFL retail income falling by 4-6% and forecast the remainder of the year as being challenging.

Top European News

  • Norway’s Wealth Fund Surges $84 Billion After Snapping Up Stocks
  • Merkel Weighs German Carbon Prices to Speed Pollution Cuts
  • U.K. Economy Seen Stagnating in April as Services Eek Out Growth
  • Societe Generale Shares Gain on Surprise Strong Capital Beat

In FX, the Greenback remains on a firmer footing ahead of the monthly BLS jobs report, and the index has just notched a new post-FOMC peak at 97.971 amidst expectations that payrolls will post another solid gain, with average earnings forecast to tick up in m/m and y/y terms. The DXY has eclipsed Fib resistance at 97.881 in the process and is now eyeing another retracement level just above 98.000 at 98.059.

  • CHF/EUR/GBP/JPY/AUD – All weaker, albeit marginally vs the Usd, with the Franc straddling 1.0200 after a further deterioration in Swiss consumer sentiment and in line/steady y/y CPI, but still well shy of the SNB’s 2% target. Meanwhile, the single currency is grinding down further having relinquished the 1.1200 handle on Thursday with Fibs marking out support and resistance at 1.1147 and 1.1186 respectively, and hefty option expiry interest also likely to influence trade/direction ahead of NFP if not the NY cut. Note, firmer than forecast Eurozone inflation has been largely shrugged off given national numbers indicating an upside bias vs consensus. Similarly, Cable failed to glean and positive momentum from confirmation that the UK services sector joined its construction counterpart back into expansion from contraction, with the pair having dipped below the 1.3000 level to circa 1.2990 (just shy of the 100DMA at 1.2983) while Usd/Jpy is pivoting 111.50 and the 30 DMA (111.47) in advance of the aforementioned US labour data and a 111.70 Fib. Last, but by no means least, the Aussie is trying to keep sight of the psychological 0.7000 mark following extended losses to a fractional 2019 low (0.6985) where decent expiry interest (877 mn) resides, but still wary about a potential RBA rate cut next week.
  • CAD/NZD – Marginal G10 outperformers, or at least holding their own as the Loonie meanders between 1.3458-75 and Kiwi hovers above 0.6600, albeit also conscious that the RBNZ could ease policy at the May meet.
  • EM – The Lira remains in the spotlight and under pressure in wake of weaker than anticipated Turkish CPI on perceived less hawkish CBRT policy implications, with Usd/Try at the upper end of 5.5800-9595 trading parameters.

In commodities, Brent (-0.5%) and WTI (-0.2%) prices are subdued this morning, as the general uptick in risk appetite this morning has not been able to outweigh the bearish pressure from the stronger dollar. WTI prices are still relatively secure above the USD 61/bbl level, currently trading around the USD 61.40 figure; however, the session lows for Brent did briefly breach the USD 70/bbl level. UBS note that of central concern for oil on the upside are the recent reports that US-China trade talks may have reached an impasse, ahead of next week’s negotiations in Washington. News flow this morning includes sources commenting that Saudi Arabia’s production may increase in June but will still be below the 10.3mln BPD quota under the OPEC+ agreement. For reference, surveys indicate that Saudi Arabia’s output as of April 30th is 9.85mln BPD. Gold (U/C) is relatively lacklustre this morning with the yellow metal torn between the firmer dollar, mixed US-China trade reports and the general improvement in risk sentiment; as such the metal is left pivoting the USD 1270/oz level. Elsewhere, copper is still suffering from the absence of China, although industrial metals in general have strengthened somewhat with some attributing this to recent comments from Tesla, stating that they foresee shortages of minerals which are used in electric vehicles.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 190,000, prior 196,000
    • Unemployment Rate, est. 3.8%, prior 3.8%
    • Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
    • Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 3.3%, prior 3.2%
    • Underemployment Rate, prior 7.3%
    • Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%; Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.3%
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 52.9, prior 52.9; Markit US Composite PMI, prior 52.8
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, est. 57, prior 56.1
  • 10:15am: Fed’s Evans Speaks at NABE International Forum in Stockholm
  • 11:30am: Fed’s Clarida Speaks at Hoover Institute Policy Conference
  • 1:45pm: Fed’s Williams Speaks at Hoover Institute Policy Conference
  • 3pm: Fed’s Bowman Speaks at Hoover Institute Policy Conference
  • 7:45pm: Fed’s Bullard, Daly, Kaplan and Mester Speak at Hoover Event

DB’s Craig Nicol concludes the overnight wrap

The last 24 hours was always going to be a little bit of a no man’s land for markets given that it fell in-between the Fed meeting and a payrolls Friday. That said, the Fed-inspired plunge for equities continued, albeit at a much more moderate pace, with the S&P 500 ending -0.21% lower by the time the closing bell rung last night. That was admittedly 0.59% off the intraday lows, with the NASDAQ also bouncing off its low of -0.91% to end the session only -0.16% lower. The DOW fell -0.46%, dragged lower by poor earnings from Dow Chemicals, whose management said they see “discrete” headwinds in the second quarter, and by Caterpillar after investors were unimpressed with its latest dividend announcement.

In Europe we had the PMIs to focus on – more on that below – however equities were playing catch up to the US moves from the day prior with the STOXX 600 ending -0.58%. Cash HY spreads widened by +4bps in Europe but tightened -1bp in the US. It was at least a bit more exciting in the rates market where 2y and 10y Treasury yields rose +4.0bps and +4.1bps respectively, and thus extending Wednesday’s move, while Bunds ended +1.7bps. Those moves were completely driven by real yields, as inflation expectations fell notably. That move was in turn driven by lower oil prices, as investors noted rising US stockpiles unconfirmed reports about increases to Russian and Saudi output. WTI ended -2.81% lower. The USD rose +0.15% which weighed on EM FX once again, as a basket of currencies retreated -0.40%. Oil exporting countries saw bigger falls, led by the Russian Ruble’s -1.24% retreat. In other commodities, Gold and Silver fell -0.48% and -0.32% to fresh year-to-date lows.

So before we can finally take a breather from what has felt like a fairly non-stop week, there’s the small matter of getting through this US employment report in about seven hours’ time. Our US economists expect nonfarm payrolls to slow to 160k versus 196k in March, while the consensus is for 190k. Our colleagues do note though that their forecast should be enough to keep the unemployment rate at 3.8%, while for earnings they forecast +0.2% mom, a tenth below what the market expects. That should still be enough to see the annual rate nudge up to +3.3% yoy though and just shy of its post-recession high.

It’s worth noting that as well as payrolls today we’ve got a number of Fed speakers due up this afternoon. Evans, speaking at 3.15pm BST, should be interesting given that Monday’s inflation data nudged closer to the 1.5% level that Evans said would make him “extremely nervous”. As you’ll see in the day ahead at the end we’ve also got Clarida, Williams, and Bowman speaking at the Hoover Institution Conference this afternoon.

This morning in Asia there isn’t a huge amount to report with markets fairly directionless. Thin trading volumes are still a factor however with Japan and China closed. The Hang Seng (-0.02%) is little changed while the Kospi (-0.69%) has struggled, in contrast to the ASX which is up +0.18%.

In other news, yesterday Stephen Moore withdraw his name from consideration for a Fed governorship, though he gave an interview 2 hours before that decision in which he said he was still “all in.” In China trade talks reportedly concluded positively between the US and China, though subsequent reporting in the Chinese press suggested that officials “may have hit an impasse” which seemed to be the trigger behind the mid-afternoon plunge for equities. The details were less negative than the headline suggested, but the story could nevertheless be a signal from Chinese officials about their willingness to walk away from talks if a satisfactory deal isn’t soon completed.

Meanwhile, the CBO released its latest budget forecasts which turned out to be uneventful. There were no major changes to the forecast for deficits to average -4.3% of GDP over the next 10 years, taking the public debt from its current 78% of GDP level to 92%. Roughly half of that rise is due to the CBO’s projections for higher interest rates, which are above DB’s and consensus forecasts, which suggests the rise will be less severe, but on the other hand the forecasts only include ‘current law’ so there is plenty of scope for things to get worse as tax cuts are renewed and spending caps are lifted moving forward.

Here in the UK it was the turn of the BoE to take the spotlight. As expected there were no policy surprises and the message was fairly neutral at best with growth projections revised up and inflation forecasts down. Our UK economists summarised that the overall communication from the BoE yesterday confirmed that policy remains almost exclusively conditional on a Brexit resolution. And with the ongoing tension between the Bank’s inflation projections and market pricing, Governor Carney reiterated the need for more hikes (than currently priced in) to keep inflation in check. Indeed, Carney’s push back against more dovish pricing at the front end of the UK rate curve was consistent with the MPC’s hawkish bias for gradual and limited tightening over the Bank’s forecast horizon. And given that our colleagues’ base case is for a Brexit resolution in May, they retain their call for an August rate hike. Sterling faded from the highs yesterday to close down -0.14% while the Gilt curve was a touch weaker with 10y yields ending +3.5bps.

As for the details of those PMIs in Europe, the manufacturing reading for the Euro Area was revised up 0.1pts to 47.9. That included better than expected readings for Italy (49.1 vs. 47.8 expected) and Spain (51.8 vs. 51.2 expected) and a +0.4pt upward revision for France to 50.0. The winner? Greece at 56.6 and the highest since 2000. Imagine thinking that four years ago. More significant for Europe, Germany was revised down 0.1pts to 44.4 which puts the increase over March at just +0.3pts. However, the good news was that new orders were up +1.4pts. As our economists noted, the improvement in the southern periphery is welcome and confirms that German contagion is more limited to its cyclical neighbours with falls in the manufacturing PMIs for Switzerland, Sweden, and the Czech Republic, possibly as collateral damage from Germany’s slide. The services readings are due on Monday so that’s the next focal point. Despite some green shoots of optimism then, the reality is that the manufacturing reading for the Euro Area is still the second lowest level in the current cycle and well into contractionary territory.

Over in the US, jobless claims stayed steady at 230k and the final print for March core capital goods orders were revised up +0.2pp to 0% mom. Factory orders rose +1.9% mom, better than the +1.6% expected, and the prior month was revised higher as well. This is likely to present upside risks for the first revision to Q1 US GDP growth later this month. Separately, Q1 productivity rose by +3.6% qoq, the fastest pace since 2014. On a yoy basis, that was the fastest pace since the financial crisis. Our US economists have published research previously showing that productivity tends to lag wage growth, as companies respond to wage pressures by finding new ways to boost output per hour. That underlies DB’s house view for US growth to remain strong over the next several quarters and years, as opposed to the consensus which envisions a gradual slowing.

Finally, the day ahead is unsurprisingly headlined by the April employment report in the US this afternoon, however prior to that we’ll get April CPI data out of Turkey this morning which will be worth a close eye, followed by the April services and composite PMIs in the UK and the April CPI report for the Euro Area. The core reading is expected to rise two-tenths to +1.0% yoy. The other data due in the US today includes the March advance goods trade balance, March wholesale inventories, the April services and composite PMIs and April ISM non-manufacturing. As mentioned earlier the other potentially interesting event to watch is the raft of Fedspeak this afternoon. It starts with Evans who is speaking at an event in Stockholm at 3.15pm BST, before Clarida (4.30pm BST), Williams (6.45pm BST) and Bowman (8pm BST) speak at the Hoover Institute Policy Conference. The Bundesbank’s Weidmann is also due to speak this morning.

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 15.84 POINTS OR .52%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 137.37 POINTS OR .46%   /The Nikkei closed //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .04%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7345 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 63.26 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.38 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7345 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.74756/ TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA
end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

end

3 C CHINA/CHINESE AFFAIRS

i)China/USA

Now it is Beijing that warns the uSA to compromise or else trade talks will collapse.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Beijing Warns Trade Talks Will Collapse If White House Doesn’t Compromise

More cracks are forming in the White House’s carefully-constructed narrative that trade talks could be headed for a resolution next Friday following the 11th round of talks between US and Chinese trade negotiations in Washington. After Beijing floated a report on Thursday suggesting that talks had been an impasse, sending stocks hurtling toward session lows early Thursday afternoon, they have followed up on Friday with a statement casting doubt on Washington’s assertion that a deal is imminent.

Mnuchin

According to the South China Morning Post, the Communist Party has published what appears to be a warning to Washington and the investing public. The Communist Party warned in a post on Taoran Notes, a venue for publishing trade-talk updates for the Chinese public, that reports about a deal being reached next Friday were part of a pressure campaign to get Beijing to acquiesce to a deal, adding that this “smoke and mirrors” ploy wouldn’t work.

“Taoran Notes, a social media account used by Beijing to release trade talk information and to manage domestic expectations, said the hints from the US side that next week’s 11th round of talks are a deadline is merely a trick “to increase tensions and generate pressure on the other side.”

“It’s the same tactic as the US threatening to raise tariffs, it is merely smoke and mirrors to exert extreme pressure [on China],” the post said. “You don’t have to take it seriously.”

Of even greater concern for stock market bulls: Beijing warned that “an unhappy departure” is still possible if the US fails to compromise.

It warned that there is still a possibility that the two sides will end up in “an unhappy departure” if one side wants the other to make compromises and neglects “fairness in negotiation.”

Exact details of the talks are shrouded in secrecy, although Beijing and Washington have hailed “progress” after every round of talks over the last five months, with Mnuchin calling this week’s talks in Beijing “productive.”

Which is surprising because over the past week, media reports have suggested that the US has done nothing but compromise. Not only have Mnuchin, Lighthizer & Co. reportedly backed down on US demands for a stable enforcement mechanism and – even more embarrassingly – demands that China promise to end its cyberespionage campaign, and the US Chamber of Commerce said Thursday that a final deal could fall short on addressing state industrial subsidies – another one of the Trump Administration’s key demands.

During a speech at the BRI Forum last week, President Xi spoke about promises to increase agricultural purchases, increase market access for foreign companies and prohibit forced technology transfers. Though Xi didn’t explicitly mention talks with the US, it’s looking increasingly likely that these concessions represent a ‘final offer’ from Beijing.

Whether the White House decides to take it, or leave it, next week could decide whether a deal is reached, or China walks away.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY

The hopeless attempt to get these two losers together…merger talks collapse again

(courtesy zerohedge)

Deutsche Bank Back To ‘Square One’ As Commerzbank Merger Talks Collapse

Ever since it became apparent that the Deutsche Bank-Commerzbank tie-up wasn’t meant to be after all, despite incessant lobbying from the German Finance Ministry over the objections of pretty much every other stakeholder, both Deutsche Bank shareholders as well as the bank’s still-relatively-new CEO have probably been wondering: What’s next for Europe’s least-favorite perennially troubled megabank? 

DB

Well, as DB’s management team scrambles to close a deal with UBS to merge the Swiss bank’s once-storied asset-management business with DWS, the asset-management arm that functions as a separate corporate entity controlled by Deutsche, Bloomberg and the FT have effectively confirmed what most shareholders have been hoping for: Despite Sewing and Chairman Paul Achleitner’s insistence that the investment bank is vital to Deutsche’s future, it’s probably time for Deutsche to take an axe to its long-suffering investment bank (the bank has already reportedly been considering the ring-fencing of its most toxic businesses and assets in a shadow ‘bad bank’).

Specifically, the bank’s equities business (and more specifically, it’s US equities trading business) will likely be on the chopping block.

But even a restructuring would be difficult, coming with many up-front costs, according to analysts quoted by Bloomberg:

With a Commerzbank deal gone, Deutsche Bank’s only move is “a more radical investment bank restructure, with a potential exit from the U.S. region and the equities product line,” Citigroup Inc. analysts wrote in a note on April 29. Such a move would be difficult. Restructuring costs would hit upfront, and revenue would be squeezed at first, potentially exacerbating rather than fixing Deutsche Bank’s core problem. In any case, that option seems off the table. Achleitner and Sewing say the trading and corporate finance businesses are crucial. “Every executive has to constantly adjust to a changing market environment,” Achleitner told the Financial Times. “But in this regard, we are not talking about strategy, we are talking about execution” of the existing plan.

As if the bank needed another incentive, Reuters reported a few days back that Deutsche’s US operation – which would be greatly curtailed  or shuttered entirely in a restructuring – is once again in danger of failing one of the Fed’s stress tests.

In a detailed insider account of the factors that inspired Sewing’s decision to walk away from merger talks (according to the FT, though it had been announced as a mutual decision, the idea to walk away was first broached by Sewing and his team, who argued that financing the deal would be too burdensome).

As one regulator put it:

“Calling the merger off wasn’t a strategic decision,” a top regulator said. “They could just not afford the deal.” “Without the one-off [accounting and tax] effects the transaction would have triggered, the deal stacked up,”the person said, adding it was “unsettling…[that] both banks do not have enough firepower to bring forward a merger that makes strategic sense.” Deutsche disputes that it lacked firepower to do the deal.

But while Commerzbank’s steady corporate business will make it an ideal acquisition target for another European lender (UniCredit and ING have reportedly been weighing bids), DB has no obvious path to finally shed the mantle of ‘most hated bank in Europe’.

DB

end

Bill Blain on the greed of people/corporations

(Bill Blain)

Blain: “We’ve Hit Peak Greed”

Blain’s Morning Porridge submitted by Bill Blain

Thanks to all the Porridge Readers who have forwarded me the Bank of England Job, suggesting I apply. Not for me…

A few years ago I used to think I was being hilariously witty when I wrote about the Global Financial Crisis 2007-2027.

I fear I might not have joking! It doesn’t necessarily mean we’re in for 8 more years of austerity, doom and gloom. Fortunes will continue be won and lost. Markets will go up and down. There will be plenty more to write about in terms of extraordinary corporate madness – like Tesla’s new convertible issue (Please!) – and credulous markets. I’m not convinced there will be the global financial reset many fear.

But there are going to be long-term tectonic finance shifts. The next few years will likely see a complete turnaround in the basics of current markets. Be preparedI suspect we’ve hit peak greed. There will be significant political shifts and reinvention – populism won’t last long. I also expect a massive change in the role of central banks, and their inter-reaction with governments, to drive clearer economic goals and objectives. The age of inflation targeting is over – we are going to undergo profound change after the scale of the last 10-years mistakes becomes apparent. It’s going to be bad news for some, but great for others.

I suspect Green/environmental themes will also come to the fore as the scale of what we’ve done to ourselves becomes apparent – and our kids will thank us for finally waking up to our responsibilities. (Perhaps the Climate Change Deniers should remember that capitalism is about taking responsibility!) As soon as I finish the Morning Porridge, I’ll be due diligencing a carbon sequestration deal that looks very interesting and an industry of the future!

There are a whole series of things the week that have triggered this morning’s Friday rant:

  • Billionaire Ray Dalio’s comments on the inevitability of Modern Monetary Theory, and his acceptance of the need for taxing the rich, is one aspect of the new financial reality. The imperative for change in the actions of central banks as they are stuck in zero rates is one thing. The fact his thoughts are echoed my many other leading economists, but also by the rising star of politics, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, is fascinating.
  • I was stuck by the Sob-Story of a Chinese mother who blubbed she thought the $6mm she paid a corrupt sports coach was sponsorship to get her daughter into Stanford University. The video her daughter made was much more revealing – justifying her privileged admission to her “followers” on the basis of hard work she never did.
  • Or how about the billionaire boss of US pharma firm INSYS, John Kapoor, going to jail for bribing doctors to overprescribe opioids – now one of the largest killers in the US. What shocks me is the numbers of doctors happy to take $150k per year from Insys not blinking as they were killing their patients!
  • This week in LA was the “Predators Ball” in Los Angeles – the Milken Institute’s annual gab-fest of the great and greedy of the markets. It’s been described as yet another gathering of “Billionaires telling Millionaires what the ordinary people think”. The theme of the conference was “Driving Shared Prosperity”. (WTF does that mean?)  Some of the participant quotes are shocking – but at least the Billionaire message was very simple: Capitalism is Good, Venezuela and Russia prove that Socialism is very bad – taxing billionaires is Socialist and therefore very bad. The conference came complete with a sound garden and a puppy petting park – because petting puppies “reduces blood pressure, promotes focused inter-reactions, and stimulates problem solving.” BARF.

And then there was a discussion I had with a client this week. He’s a very successful fund manager who has been doing well. He was enthused, interested, and keen to explore new investment ideas. Over coffees we got onto talking about his young family, the fact he doesn’t see enough of them, the misery of his 1 hour each way commute, and his feeling of constant struggle – his earnings seem to just cover the mortgage, fees, schools, the cars and all the other sundries of modern life. He is time poor and feels financially stretched. He’s certainly in the top 0.2% of UK earners, but feels he’s just making do.

Most of us will know exactly how he feels. He is not alone. Apparently, you need a £250k income to survive in London these days. San Francisco is even more expensive.

What is in store for our kids? Even after we poured money into their education and they’ve found “good” jobs, they struggle to pay rent on grotty flats (with little expectation of buying their own), and are lumbered with student debt. What have they got to look forward to? 30/40 years of clinging on before retiring on miserable pensions they’ve struggled to save in the heartless gig economy? And these are the better off kids..

Its no wonder there is so much talk about social revolution across markets today. We need to make things better. We are confronted with political failure across the occidental economies – the UK paralysed by Brexit, Europe in sway to populism, and the US – enough said. Many of my market colleagues agree with my analysis we face a summer of increasing protest and struggle. History tells us that times of such social imbalance and political impotence spawn the most dangerous event risks.

Let’s go back to the Predators’ Ball in LA. Conference founder Mike Milken is now a philanthropic legend supporting medical causes. Those of us of a certain age remember him as the king of the junk bonds who was sent down to sew mailbags for Uncle Sam after his shady dealings at Drexel Burnham Lambert were exposed in the 1980s. He remains insanely wealthy.  (Some say he was the model for Gorden Gecko – check it yourself…)

Apparently, the conference highlight this year was a 1977 video of Margaret Thatcher telling every one “Capitalism has a moral basis… to be free, you have to be capitalist.”

Thatcher made a good point in 1977 as she prescribed her drastic cure for a very sick and troubled UK in the iron grip of the unions, spiralling from daily power cuts towards the dire Winter of Discontent, before her election victory in 1979. But, I am sure Thatcher would be shocked by Capitalism today. Capitalism is justifiably under attack because of its excesses. Let’s not think it’s a battle between humanity and few billionaires – but what the 0.01% elites have come to represent looks crass, shoddy and vulgar. They are a tiny minority.

The issues should not be about social revolution against the insanely wealthy – but making everyone better. (If they were smart, the wealthy would agree.) At the core of the crisis is income inequality and a populist leftward-shift fuelled by the growing and very visible divide between the haves and the have nots. Firebrands like Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have seized the imagination. She is clearly scaring the billionaire class – because they are doing their utmost to dismiss her as a blundering momentary fad. But, she and the rest of the Social Democrats – or Socialists as the right wing are demonising them – are getting airtime, and hitting the pulse of the stretched middle who are nervous on their futures, their families, healthcare, education, taxes and jobs.

At heart, Democrats in the US, and most Labour voters here in the UK, remain Capitalists at heart – taking responsibility for themselves and striving for better. Voting from AOC or for Jeremy Corbyn does not mean Moscow wins and we all start singing the Red Flag. (Disclosure: I am Scottish, that makes me genetically a socialist, but the politician I most admire is probably Thatcher, even though we were chanting: “Maggie Thatcher, Milk Snatcher” on the first Demo I went on!)

When I was at university I was a socialist. Then I joined the city, I reaped the benefits of capitalism and embraced it. But, Its difficult to support Billionaire capitalism when ostentatious wealth is flouted in our faces, our monied “betters” won’t embrace society, and the weak and struggling of society are treated with contempt. (I suppose I had some kind of Road to Damascus moment when I wrote about the shocking poverty, homelessness and drug abuse in San Francisco earlier this year.)

The new Democratic/Socialist agenda is not that shocking – it boils down to upskilling, an educational rebuild, reaffirming opportunities for all, and providing training to create a workforce prepped to succeed in the new modern/robotic environment, and able to be more productive in a competitive/disruptive global marketplace. It aims to create future security by investing across infrastructure to future proof the economy. It aims to cover and provide strong and stable healthcare for all. These are all common goods to benefit the whole of society.

What’s not to like?

The horror is because the Democrats propose taxing the rich to pay for it. The sheer effrontery! They don’t believe in trickle down. They don’t believe rich entrepreneurs create jobs and pay more to their workers. They dare to suggest their social betters pay minimum wages to their workers and pay themselves obscene amounts!

They do that because its true…

Ray Dalio – the hedge fund manager who paid himself $2 bln in 2018 – has noted the change in the wind. Despite that $2 bln paycheck he admits capitalism is flawed and needs reform. He accepts he will pay greater taxes.

Moreover the predicts an enormous shift in policy responses –Monetary Policy 3 and Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) as inevitable consequences of failed monetary experimentation these past few years. These are dangerous concepts – governments spending money is always open to abuse. Issues from simply writing off the vast amounts of public debt held by central banks to generating public consumption through directly paying consumers to consume could be on the table. You can read Dalio here.

There are going to be fascinating times ahead! Right… where is that pitch on Carbon Sequestration….

end

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

7  OIL ISSUES

 

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS

VENEZUELA

 

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1152 DOWN .0021 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED EXCEPT GERMANY

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 111.49 DOWN 0.0045 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2998   DOWN   0.0034  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3471 UP .0008 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 32 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  FALLING to 1.1152 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 15.84 POINTS OR .22% 

 

 

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 137.37 POINTS OR .46%

 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .04%// EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED HOLIDAY 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 137.47 POINTS OF .46% 

 

 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 15.84 POINTS OR .52% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN  .04% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED HOLIDAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1270.10

silver:$14.66

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.56% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.94 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 97.99 UP 16 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.12%  UP 1 in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.04%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.98% DOWN 2   IN basis point yield from THURSDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.56 UP 1  POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 158 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES +.03%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.53% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.11888  DOWN     .0015 or 15 basis points

 

USA/Japan: 111.26 DOWN 0.2240 OR YEN UP 22  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3141 UP .01097 POUND UP 110  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 44 basis points to 1.3426

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed AT 6.7354    0N SHORE  (DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7390  (YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.9686 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.04%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.53 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.93 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.59  DOWN 25  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 29,33  0.40%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 67.33 POINTS OR .55%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 9.96 POINTS OR .18%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 8.60 POINTS or 0.09%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 53.10 POINTS OR 0.24%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 62.22 1:00 pm

Brent Oil: 71,36 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.10  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.28 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 28 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO +.03 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  62.00

 

 

BRENT :  70.83

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.53…   STILL DEADLY//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.93..VERY DEADLY

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1200 ( UP 28   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.09 DOWN .401 (YEN UP 40 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.48 DOWN 35 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.3170 UP 139 POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.9664

 

the Russian rouble 65.10   UP 28 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 28 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3423 UP 47 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7354  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7351 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,+0.03%

 

The Dow closed  UP 197.16 POINTS OR 0.75%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 127.22 POINTS OR 1.58%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.55 CLOSED DOWN 1.55

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.565%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.575

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Dow Suffers Longest Weekly Losing Streak Of Year As Fed Loses Control Of Short-End

The Fed’s tweak to the funding markets failed to take back control…

As The Fed’s IOER cut left EFF still 6bps rich…

And so, a ‘murder’ of Fed Speakers were unleashed today and they managed to inch the market’s rate expectations in a dovish direction, but on the week, thanks to Powell’s “transitory”

The key message was obvious:

Chinese markets remain on holiday (and will be through Tuesday) but Chinese stocks remain the leader in 2019…

 

European stocks were very mixed with Germany’s DAX leading and UK and Spain lagging…

 

An epic short-squeeze ramped US equities back into (or near) the green for the week…

 

With Small Caps and Trannies leading… Nasdaq and S&P were levitated almost perfectly into the green for the week…

Nasdaq up 6 week sin a row and 16 of the 18 weeks in 2019.

Nasdaq soared today on the back of Berkshire buying some Amazon shares… (FANG stocks managed to get back to breakeven on the week only though after the GOOGL drop)

 

For The Dow, this is the same panic-bid we saw last Friday… Dow down for 2nd week in a row – first time since Dec 2018

 

VIX has now risen for 3 straight weeks (albeit marginally) – the longest streak since Oct 2018

 

Treasuries were bid today, shifting the long-end yields back to unchanged on the week, while the short-end remain notably higher in yield…

 

The yield curve flattened dramatically on the week (after a brief spike initially on the Fed statement)…This was the biggest weekly flattening in 5 months

 

Roller-coaster week for the dollar surging back to unchanged on the week after The Fed, then tumbling today after payrolls…

 

Yuan ended the week unchanged (after a big bounce back today) even with China closed…

 

The peso surged today ahead of Cinco de Mayo…

 

Big week for Cryptos with Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash leading…

 

As Bitcoin tests $5800…

 

Strong bounce back day for commodities today was unable to get them green on the week but gold outperformed as copper lagged…

 

Gold bounced off its 200DMA once again…

 

WTI fell for the 2nd week in a row – the biggest 2-week drop since 2018…hugging the 200DMA…

 

Finally, as BofA notes, ISM’s collapse (which everyone seemed to ignore this week) is a major warning signal for US EPS growth…

Which is already lagging the market’s enthusiasm for free money…

Global money supply better start picking up again soon…

 

END

Market trading:/Jobs report

Despite a supposedly strong jobs report, an increase of 263,000, the pundits always looks for wage growth and it is muted. Also the labour participation report fell back to 62.8% from 63.00% This caused gold/silver to rise.

(courtesy zerohedge)

April Jobs Smash Expectations, Soar By 263K, But Wage Growth Muted

While overall expectations for the April payrolls number were generally in line, the “whisper” was for some weakness below the 190K consensus as a result of delayed census hiring (as discussed earlier). However, it was just not meant to be as the US job  market juggernaut continues to accelerate, and moments ago the BLS reported that in April the US economy added another 263K, smashing expectations of a 190K print, and well above both the March (189K) and February (56K) prints. The April print was well above the average monthly gain of 213,000 over the prior 12 months.

Payrolls were highlighted by strength in construction (+33,000), professional and business services (+76,000), education and health services (+62,000); weak spots include manufacturing (+4,000) and retail (-12,000), the third straight decline.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised up from +33,000 to +56,000, and the change for March was revised down from +196,000 to +189,000. With these revisions, employment gains in February and March combined were 16,000 more than previously reported. After revisions, job gains have averaged 169,000 per month over the last 3 months.

While overall payrolls were scorching, the goldilocks picture continued, as Average hourly earnings rose “only” 0.2% from the prior month, and 3.2% from a year earlier – once again these figures were below forecasts and the same as March’s readings, however it is worth noting that wages for production and nonsupervisory workers accelerated to a 3.4% gain from 3.3%, signaling gains for lower-paid employees.

As Bloomberg notes, wage growth was led by lower-paid employees – those in production and non-supervisory roles. What is more concerning, and suggests that the real hourly earnings number would be even worse, is that the average workweek actually declined from 34.5 to 34.4, indicating that average comp would be even lower if hours worked was unchanged.

While of secondary importance, the jobless rate fell to a new 49-year low of 3.6% (or 3.585% to be precise), down from 3.811% last month, though that was partly due to another drop in the size of the labor force; the household survey showed the employed fell by 103,000, the unemployed fell by 387,000, and the overall labor force shrank by 490K to 162.47 million.

Also of note, and a key point that Trump will be making shortly is that Hispanic unemployment dropped to a record low.

As noted above, with the labor force tumbling, the labor force participation rate unexpectedly dropped back to the lowest level since the 1960s, sliding from 63.0% to 62.8%.

Some more details:

Professional and business services added 76,000 jobs in April. Within the industry, employment gains occurred in administrative and support services (+53,000) and in computer systems design and related services (+14,000). Over the past 12 months, professional and business services has added 535,000 jobs.

  • In April, construction employment rose by 33,000, with gains in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (+22,000) and in heavy and civil engineering construction (+10,000). Construction has added 256,000 jobs over the past 12 months.
  • Employment in health care grew by 27,000 in April and 404,000 over the past 12 months. In April, job growth occurred in ambulatory health care services (+17,000), hospitals (+8,000), and community care facilities for the elderly (+7,000).
  • Social assistance added 26,000 jobs over the month, with all of the gain in individual and family services.
  • Financial activities employment continued to trend up in April (+12,000). The industry has added 110,000 jobs over the past 12 months, with almost three- fourths of the growth in real estate and rental and leasing.
  • Manufacturing employment changed little for the third month in a row (+4,000 in April). In the 12 months prior to February, the industry had added an average of 22,000 jobs per month.
  • Employment in retail trade changed little in April (-12,000). Job losses occurred in general merchandise stores (-9,000), while motor  vehicle and parts dealers added 8,000 jobs.
  • Employment in other major industries, including mining, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, leisure and hospitality, and government, showed little change over the month.

In summary, it looks like another “meh (or bad) news is good news” report, because while jobs came in stronger than expected, the “goldilocks” aspect of today’s report was the weaker than expected hourly earnings, which would have been even lower if average workweek had not dipped. Predictably, stocks found whatever narrative suits them best, and rose while both the dollar and 10Y yields kneejerked higher initially before sliding lower.

end
Trump will like this;  Hispanic unemployment falls to record lows.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Hispanic Unemployment Plunges To Record Low

While the aggregate U-3 US unemployment rate fell to its lowest since Dec 1969 (matching the initial jobless claims records), we suspect President Trump will be more glowingly positive about another data item that dropped this morning.

Hispanic unemployment has never been lower than right now…

We look forward to Nancy Pelosi’s explanation of why this is a bad thing, or fake news (perhaps she will use the fact that black unemployment was unchanged in April?).

end

The real story:  Supply chain hiring grinds to a halt.

(courtesy zerohedge)

“One-Offs” Pump-Up Payrolls As Supply-Chain Hiring Grinds To A Halt

The politicos are out crowing of the booming US economy confirmed by today’s jobs report.

Despite a worrying retracement in the participation rate:

But, as Southbay Research explainsbeneath the headline figures, payrolls are slowing…

Supply Chain Hiring Grinds to a Halt, Services Takes Over

  • Manufacturing (+4K)
  • Trade & Transportation (+5K)

No surprise here, as ISM and other data was pointing to a pullback in these sectors.

Also, the jump in Construction (+33K) was called out in our forecast. 

This is catch-up seasonal hiring and not a trend.  For May, expect additional catch-up hiring to keep this figure up.

Services Roars Ahead on One-Offs

Weakness in Trade, Transportation was offset by strength in:

  • Financial (+12K) jumped on real estate as low rates boosted home buying
  • Landscaping (+20K) on catch-up seasonal hiring
  • Healthcare (+53K) including an unusual jump in Social Services (+26K)
  • Food Services (+25K)

Of the 202K additional Services Payrolls, at least 46K is one-time and will not repeat next month (Landscaping + Social Services)

And then there’s unusually strong Municpal Government Hiring

Strong one-off local government hiring (+27K) added to the party

Key Trend: Under the Headline Figure, A Payroll Slowdown is underway

  • Manufacturing retreats (+4K)
  • Construction continues (Construction + 33k, Real Estate Financial +8K)
  • Consumer spending is moderating (Trade, Transportation +5K)
  • Services Hiring is moderating.  For example, Temp Workers +17K in April but only +12K total the last 3 months

April’s strong number is the final rebound from February’s weakness (aka catch-up seasonal hiring). Coming up next month: Slower Payroll Growth.

end

ii)Market data/

The ISM data is much more reliable that Markit.  Services sector is by far the better indicator for growth in the USA as the manufacturing sector has been falling for years.  Today the ISM data shows that services has slumped to its weakest since 2017.

(courtesy zerohedge)

ISM Services Tumbles To 20-Month Lows As Employment Plummets

Following Manufacturing’s collapse, ISM reports that the Services sector has slumped to its weakest since August 2017.

In the latest sign of weaker economic momentum at the start of the second quarter, the non-manufacturing index declined to 55.5 in April from 56.1…

Under the hood, it’s just as ugly with new orders and employment both tumbling (the latter to two year lows).

The weakness in employment contrasts with Friday’s U.S. jobs report, which showed payrolls climbed in April by a robust 263,000 that topped all projections.

end

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

this is very technical but it is far more important to understand where this is heading.  For years now the effective Fund rates have been in the middle of two rates:  1/  The IOER or the excess funds owned by the banks and which they loan back to the Fed and are paid a very high interest rates  and 2.  the lower floor Rep rate.  If the Effective funds rate travels above the IOER it means that the Fed has a liquidity problem..the banks even though they have 1.5 trillion dollars in excess reserves….it is not enough and they need more liquidity.  It generally means that the Fed is losing control.

(courtesy zerohedge)

The Fed Has Lost Control Of Rates As ‘Technical Tweak’ Fails

While the rest of the world is distracted by the plummeting unemployment rates and trade deal hype, a funny (well not so funny) thing happened in the short-term funding markets in the world’s reserve currency.

As we noted previously, something unexpected has been going on in overnight funding markets: ever since March 20, the Effective Fed Funds rate has been trading above the IOER. This is not supposed to happen.

As a reminder, ever since the financial crisis, in order to push the effective fed funds rate above zero at a time of trillions in excess reserves, the Fed was compelled to create a corridor system for the fed funds rate which was bound on the bottom and top by two specific rates controlled by the Federal Reserve: the “floor” for the corridor was the overnight reverse repurchase rate (ON-RRP) which usually coincides with the lower bound of the fed funds rate, while on top, the effective fed funds rate is bound by the rate the Fed pays on Excess Reserves (IOER), which served as the corridor “ceiling.”

Or at least that’s the theory. In practice, the effective FF tends to occasionally diverge from this corridor, and when it does, it prompts fears that the Fed is losing control over the most important instrument available to it: the price of money, which is set via the fed funds rate.

This week, The Fed tried to do something about it by cutting the IOER.

It has failed!

The effective fed funds rate fell to 2.41% on Thursday from 2.45%, according to New York Fed data. With the Federal Reserve’s 5bp cut to the interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate to 2.35%…

Fed effective rate on March 20 surpassed IOER for the first time since 2008, and it’s stayed above most days since.

This is a 6bps failure – worse than the 5bps spread BEFORE the Fed “tweaked”.

In other words, as one veteran funding market trader exclaimed, “it’s getting worse!”
Simply put, this is front and center a dollar liquidity shortage signal that The Fed is unable to solve… for now.

As Barclays’ Joseph Abate recently ominously concluded:

the large move also suggests that the banking sector is “nearing the steeply sloping part of the reserve demand curve” which means that “bank reserves are now significantly closer to what individual banks consider their ‘least comfortable level of reserves’ and thus banks are more willing to pay higher rates to retain these balances.”

In other words, some $1.5 trillion in excess liquidity created by the Fed is no longer enough for banks which are starting to scramble to obtain additional liquidity, which needless to say, is very troubling for a banking system which is supposedly “fortress” and “much more stable” than it was before the financial crisis. If anything, this means that even a modest liquidity draining crisis at any point in the future could have vastly more dire consequences than even the pessimists believe.

So what can the Fed do to regain control over interest rates?

According to Barclays to address the expected increase in fed funds volatility, the Fed could either end the balance sheet runoff this summer instead of waiting until September, create a standing repo facility – something which has been rumored for months – or conduct standard open market operations, injecting even more liquidity into the system.

Is Larry Kudlow right? Is The Fed preparing to cut rates, despite Powell’s dismissal of directional bias? The market still thinks so…

Note, the market is shifting dovishly today despite the big beats in jobs, suggesting something else (cough liquidity cough) is affecting policy expectations.

END

 

Baltimore Mayor resigns as the corruption scandal intensifies

(courtesy zerohedge)

Baltimore Mayor Resigns As ‘Healthy Holly’ Corruption Scandal Snowballs

Barely a week after FBI and IRS agents raided her two homes, office at city hall and a non-profit belonging to a friend, Baltimore Mayor Catherine Pugh’s lawyer said Thursday that his client would resign, making her the second Baltimore mayor to leave office under a cloud of corruption in the past decade.

Pugh, who has been on a leave of absence since April 1, the same day that Gov. Larry Hogan said he would call for a criminal investigation into allegations of self-dealing, reportedly tried to make a run for it after the raids. Shortly beforehand, members of the city council signed a letter asking her to resign.

Pugh

According to the Washington Post, Pugh’s resignation brings her more than two-decade career in politics to an end. Her candidacy for mayor was championed by Elijah Cummings (yes, that Elijah Cummings) one of Maryland’s most influential politicians, and she initially triumphed in a hotly contested primary as the city reeled from the aftermath of the Freddie Gray riots.

A scandal erupted in March when the Baltimore Sun revealed that Pugh, who sat on the board of the University of Maryland Hospital System, was paid half a million dollars for 100,000 copies of her “Healthy Holly” children’s books (there’s suspicion that half of these books were never even delivered, yet Pugh was paid in full).

But more galling, Pugh was also paid $100,000 by Kaiser Permanente, the managed care consortium that was in the process of securing a $48 million contract with the city.

Her departure will usher in another era of political instability in a city that’s struggle with high levels of violent crime and deep mistrust of the police following the Gray killing and several other corruption scandals.

Council President Bernard C. “Jack” Young, 64, who has been serving as acting mayor in Pugh’s absence, will replace Pugh at the helm of city government until next year’s election, where he said he would not seek another term.

Utilizing language favored by President Trump, Pugh initially derided the “Healthy Holly” scandal as a “Witch Hunt” before issuing a public apology.

Though facing potential criminal charges, Pugh’s position as mayor was relatively secure: According to the city charter, there is no way for the council or the governor to remove her from office.

Which suggests to us that she got the tap from prosecutors that they wanted her to resign as the investigation ramps up.

end
Another good indicator that the USA economy is being decimated:  heavy truck orders in April down a huge 57% year/year
(courtesy zerohedge)

Class 8 Heavy Truck Orders Decimated In April, Down 57% Year Over Year

North American Class 8 net order data shows the industry booked 14,800 units in April, down 57% from a year-ago. The number also marks a sequential decrease of 6.2% from March. The decline is being blamed on companies filling orders from a bloated backlog of last year’s record purchases and buyers juggling remaining orders. The numbers from last month were the lowest for an April since 2016.

Year to date, the numbers continue to look ugly. There have been 63,000 trucks ordered, a 63% percent decline from the 169,186 orders placed during the same period in 2018. And it doesn’t look like the rest of the year is going to get any better.

Kenny Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst said:

“We continue to contend that current order weakness has more to do with very large Class 8 backlogs and orders already booked, than with the evolving supply-demand balance. Of course, contracting freight volumes, falling freight rates, and strong Class 8 capacity additions suggest that the supply-demand balance will become an issue later this year.

Vieth continued, pivoting to the medium duty market:

 “While the U.S. manufacturing/freight economy has been droopy since late 2018, the medium-duty market continues to benefit from underlying strength in the consumer economy. In April, NA Classes 5-7 net orders were 23,100 units, down just 6.8% year-over-year and up 12% from March.”

Don Ake, FTR vice president of commercial vehicles commented:

 “They remember what happened last year when they needed trucks, but could not get enough of them. New orders are expected to remain soft until ordering for 2020 begins this fall.”

Bob Costello, chief economist of the American Trucking Associations went back to an old favorite – blaming the weather. He said: “In March, and really the first quarter in total, tonnage was negatively impacted by bad winter storms throughout much of the U.S.”

Class 8 trucks, which are made by Daimler (Freightliner, Western Star), Paccar (Peterbuilt, Kenworth), Navistar International, and Volvo Group (Mack Trucks, Volvo Trucks), are one of the more common heavy trucks on the road, used for transport, logistics and occasionally (some dump trucks) for industrial purposes. Typical 18 wheelers on the road are generally all Class 8 vehicles, and traditionally are seen as an accurate coincident indicator of trade and logistics trends in the economy.

 

This data comes on top of March orders falling an astounding 66%, making April’s sequential decrease stand out even more. Specifically, March Class 8 net orders were just 15,700 units (16,000 SA; 192,000 SAAR), down 66% YoY from 49,600 a year ago and down 6.7% sequentially.

The decline in March was also attributed to a 300,000+ vehicle backlog potentially prompting fleets to halt purchases in the near term. We don’t doubt that the economic slowdown is also playing a major part in the latest collapse.

END

THE TRUE STATE OF AFFAIRS IN THE USA

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

Try Claiming America Is “Booming” After Reading These 19 Facts About Our Current Economic Performance

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

After taking an honest look at the facts, I don’t know how anyone can possibly claim that the U.S. economy is “booming”.  I really don’t.

We hear this sort of rhetoric from the mainstream media all the time, but it doesn’t make any sense.  As I discussed yesterday, nobody should be using the term “booming” to describe the state of the U.S. economy until we have a full year when GDP growth is 3 percent or better, and at this point we haven’t had that since the middle of the Bush administration.  And as you will see below, the latest numbers are clearly telling us that the U.S. economy is not even moving in the right direction.  Economic conditions are getting worse, and they weren’t that great to begin with.  According to the calculations that John Williams has made over at shadowstats.com, the U.S. economy is already in a recession, but of course the Federal Reserve will continue to tell us that everything is just fine for as long as they possibly can.  Unfortunately for them, they can’t hide the depressingly bad numbers that are coming in from all over the economy, and those numbers are all telling us the same thing.

The following are 19 facts about our current economic performance that should deeply disturb all of us…

#1 In April, U.S. auto sales were down 6.1 percent.  That was the worst decline in 8 years.

#2 The number of mortgage applications has fallen for four weeks in a row.

#3 We just witnessed the largest crash in luxury home sales in about 9 years.

#4 Existing home sales have now fallen for 13 months in a row.

#5 In March, total residential construction spending was down 8.4 percent from a year ago.

#6 U.S. manufacturing output was down 1.1 percent during the first quarter of this year.

#7 Farm incomes are falling at the fastest pace since 2016.

#8 Wisconsin dairy farmers are going bankrupt “in record numbers”.

#9 Apple iPhone sales are falling at a “record pace”.

#10 Facebook’s profits have declined for the first time since 2015.

#11 We just learned that CVS will be closing 46 stores.

#12 Office Depot has announced that they will be closing 50 locations.

#13 Overall, U.S. retailers have announced more than 6,000 store closings so far in 2019, and that means we have already surpassed the total for all of last year.

#14 A shocking new study has discovered that 137 million Americans have experienced “medical financial hardship in the past year”.

#15 Credit card charge-offs at U.S. banks have risen to the highest level in nearly 7 years.

#16 Credit card delinquencies have risen to the highest level in almost 8 years.

#17 More than half a million Americans are homeless right now.

#18 Homelessness in New York City is the worst that it has ever been.

#19 Nearly 102 million Americans do not have a job right now.  That number is worse than it was at any point during the last recession.

But at least the stock market has been doing well, right?

Actually, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been down for two days in a row, and investors are getting kind of antsy.

Hopes of a trade deal with China had been propping up stocks in recent weeks, but it looks like negotiations may have hit “an impasse”

The latest round of US-China trade talks may have hit an impasse, raising doubts about the chances of an early trade deal between the world’s two leading economies, Chinese official media reported on Thursday.

Unlike the previous negotiations, the 10th round of high-level economic and trade talks, which concluded here on Wednesday, had fewer details about specific discussions and results, state-run Global Times reported.

I warned my readers repeatedly that this would happen.  The Chinese are going to negotiate, but they are going to drag their feet for as long as possible in hopes that the U.S. will free Meng Wanzhou.

Of course that isn’t going to happen, and so at some point the Chinese will have to decide if they are willing to move forward with a trade deal anyway.

But if the Chinese drag their feet for too long, Trump administration officials may lose patience and take their ball and go home.

In any event, the truth is that the U.S. economy is really slowing down, and no trade deal is going to magically change that.

And a lot of other pundits are also pointing out that a substantial economic slowdown has now begun.  For example, the following comes from Brandon Smith’s latest article

The bottom line is, the next crash has already begun. It started at the end of 2018, and is only becoming more pervasive with each passing month. This is not “doom and gloom” or “doom porn”, this is simply the facts on the ground. While stock markets are still holding (for now), the rest of the system is breaking down right on schedule. The question now is, when will the mainstream media and the Fed finally acknowledge this is happening? I suspect, as in 2008, they will openly admit to the danger only when it is far too late for people to prepare for it.

Hopefully things will remain relatively stable for as long as possible, because nobody should want to see a repeat of 2008 (or worse).

Unfortunately, we can’t stop the clock.  We are already more than a third of the way through 2019, and we will be into 2020 before we know it.

It has been an unusual year so far, but I have a feeling that it is about to get much, much more interesting.

END
Biden puts his foot in his mouth again:  The uSA Defense Dept says that China plans to replace the USA as top power.  Biden stated today that China is no competition
(courtesy zerohedge)

Biden Was Wrong: Defense Department Says China Plans To Replace US, Become Top Power

It looks like President Trump was right yet again when he put Joe Biden on blast for being “very naive” about China after the 2020 Democratic frontrunner said the world’s second-largest economy “is not competition for us.”

“If Biden actually said that, that’s a very dumb statement,” Trump said in a Thursday interview with Fox News.

Considering the brewing tit-for-tat antagonisms between the American Navy and People’s Liberation Army-Navy in the Strait of Taiwan and the South China Sea, it’s hard to believe that any American politician – much less one vying to be the commander-in-chief of the American military – would write China off so easily.

China

But in case Biden needed more evidence that China is indeed a serious geopolitical threat to the US, the Department of Defense on Friday released a report outlining Beijing’s efforts to displace the US as the dominant power in the Pacific. To achieve this aim, Beijing is expanding its military power in the region at an alarming rate. Soon, it’s expected to deploy its second aircraft carrier in the region, along with other military advancements in power projection, stating that “ground, naval, air, and missile forces are increasingly able to project power through peacetime operations.”

It’s doing all of this with the aim of supplanting US dominance in the region, and it’s expanding its military firepower to prepare for the possibility of a “regional conflict” – i.e. a “hot war” – in the Indo-Pacific, according to Stars and Stripes, which published a summary of the report.

The aircraft carrier will greatly improve China’s ability to expand its ability to project power beyond the militarized islands and reefs – “immovable aircraft carriers”, as Steve Bannon once described them.

“China’s aircraft carrier and planned follow-on carriers, once operational, will extend air defense coverage beyond the range of coastal and shipboard missile systems and will enable task group operations at increasingly longer ranges,” the report said.

The report also warned of espionage activities by China to “acquire sensitive, dual-use, or military-grade equipment,” including “dynamic random-access memory computer technology, aviation and anti-submarine warfare technologies and military communication jamming tools.”

Of particular interest in the report is its description of China’s plans to dominate the Arctic, a plan the report described as a “polar silk road.”

It also mentioned China’s growing interest in the arctic, referring to a “polar silk road” initiative. Beijing has invested in icebreaker vessels and last year published its first arctic strategy.

The report warned of a possible strengthened military presence in the Northern Sea Route, “which could include deploying submarines to the region as a deterrent against nuclear attacks.”

The report said China increasingly sees the U.S. “as adopting a more confrontational approach, reflecting China’s long-held perception that the United States seeks to contain China’s rise.”

The 2018 National Defense Strategy listed China as a competitor and a threat for its expanding influence in the Pacific and militarization of islands and reefs in the South China Sea.

“China sees recent U.S. actions on trade and the public releases of U.S. defense and national security strategies as indicative of this containment strategy,” the report said.

What’s more, the report warned, China’s expanding reach is increasing the risk that an “accident” could set off an armed conflict between the two superpowers. Because of the this, the DoD recommended that the US continue to work “from a position of strength” while seeking to reduce risk and “prevent misunderstandings” in a time of rising tensions.

SWAMP STORIES

As promised, Barr launches a wide ranging probe into the 2016 FBU spying and the genesis of the Trump Russian collusion hoax

(courtesy zerohedge)

Barr Launches Wide-Ranging Probe Into 2016 FBI Spying

Attorney General William Barr told the Senate Judiciary Panel this week that he has assembled a team at the Justice Department to probe whether the spying conducted by the FBI against the Trump campaign in 2016 was improper, reports Bloomberg

Barr suggested that he would focus on former senior leaders at the FBI and Justice Department. 

“To the extent there was overreach, what we have to be concerned about is a few people at the top getting it into their heads that they know better than the American people,” said Barr.

Barr will also review whether the infamous Steele dossier – a collection of salacious and unverified claims against Donald Trump, assembled by a former British spy and paid for by the Clinton campaign – was fabricated by the Russian government to trick the FBI and other US agencies. (Will Barr investigate whether Steele made the whole thing up for his client, Fusion GPS?)

“We now know that he was being falsely accused,” Barr said of Trump. “We have to stop using the criminal justice process as a political weapon.”

Mueller’s report didn’t say there were false accusations against Trump. It said the evidence of cooperation between the campaign and Russia “was not sufficient to support criminal charges.” Investigators were unable to get a complete picture of the activities of some relevant people, the special counsel found.

Although Barr’s review has only begun, it’s helping to fuel a narrative long embraced by Trump and some of his Republican supporters: that the Russia investigation was politically motivated and concocted from false allegations in order to spy on Trump’s campaign and ultimately undermine his presidency. –Bloomberg

As Bloomberg notes, Barr’s review could receive a boost by a Thursday New York Times articleacknowledging that the FBI sent a ‘honeypot’ spy to London in 2016 to pose as a research assistant and gather intelligence from Trump foreign policy adviser George Papadopoulos over possible Trump campaign links to Russia.

The Trump re-election campaign immediately seized on the Times report as evidence that improper spying did occur. “As President Trump has said, it is high time to investigate the investigators,” said Trump campaign manager, Brad Parscale in a statement. 

During Barr’s Wednesday testimony, Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) told Barr It appears to me that the Obama administration, Justice Department and FBI decided to place their bets on Hillary Clinton and focus their efforts” when it came to investigating the Trump campaign.

Depending on what Barr finds, his review of the Russia probe could give Trump ammunition to defend himself in continuing congressional inquiries — and in a potential impeachment for obstructing justice. Barr told senators that Trump’s actions can’t be seen as obstruction if he was exercising his constitutional authority as president to put an end to an illegitimate investigation.

Barr’s efforts follow two years of work by a group of House Republicans who have been conducting dozens of interviews regarding the FBI’s and Justice Department’s conduct in the early stages of investigation of Trump and his campaign. –Bloomberg

On Thursday, Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC) issued a criminal referral for Nellie Ohr – a former Fusion GPS contractor who passed anti-Trump research to her husband, then the #4 official at the DOJ. 

On Thursday, Meadows said that Barr’s “willingness to investigate the origins of the Russia investigation is the first step in putting the questionable practices of the past behind us,” and that the AG’s “tenacity is sure to be rewarded.”

The FBI opened its counterintelligence investigation against the Trump campaign after a self-professed member of the Clinton Foundation, Joseph Mifsud, fed Papadopoulos the rumor that Russia had “dirt” on Clinton. That rumor would be coaxed out of the former Trump aide by another Clinton-connected individual – Australian diplomat Alexander Downer, who would notify authorities of Papadopoulos’ admission, officially launching the investigation.   (Harvey:  this is the genesis)

Barr says he wants to get to the bottom of it.

His review will examine the above chain of events that set the investigation into motion, and whether any US agencies were engaged in spying on or investigating the Trump campaign before the probe was officially launched.

Barr said he’s working with FBI Director Christopher Wray “to reconstruct exactly what went down.” He said he has “people in the department helping me review the activities over the summer of 2016.”

Notably, Barr said his aides will be “working very closely” with the Justice Department’s inspector general, Michael Horowitz.

Horowitz is conducting his own investigation into the origins of the Russia investigation and whether there were abuses when the FBI obtained a secret warrant from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court in October 2016 to spy on another foreign policy adviser to the campaign, Carter Page. –Bloomberg

Barr will also investigate when the DOJ and FBI knew that the Democratic Party and Clinton was Steele

More subterfuge, or is this really happening?

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Traders bought the opening dip and ran ESMs to the session high of 2932.75 by 10:09 ET.  But then, the bottom fell out.  ESMs plunged to 2901 and the S&P 500 Index to 2900.50 just before noon ET.

Here’s a possible cause: US, China trade talks may have hit an impasse: Chinese official media

https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll/us-china-trade-talks-may-have-hit-an-impasse-chinese-official-media/1527305

Chrysler Leads U.S. Auto Sales Lower on Higher Financing Rates

  • Car buyers paid over 6% a fourth straight month, Edmunds says
  • Most of the biggest automakers missed estimates in April

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-01/chrysler-completes-detroit-going-dark-on-monthly-sales-reporting

Health insurance deductibles soar, leaving Americans with unaffordable bills

In the last 12 years, annual deductibles in job-based health plans have nearly quadrupled and now average more than $1,300… [Oh boy, more inflation! Yippee!]

https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-health-insurance-medical-bills-20190502-story.html

April 2018 NSA NFP: 148.383m

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001

April 2018 SA NFP: 148.475m

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001

 

April 2018 Seasonal Adjustment = +92k

Birth/Death Model jobs for April 2018 = 275k     https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

Solomon: Ukrainian embassy confirms DNC contractor asked country for Trump dirt in 2016

Ambassador Valeriy Chaly’s office says DNC contractor Alexandra Chalupa sought information from the Ukrainian government on Paul Manafort’s dealings inside the country, in hopes of forcing the issue before Congress… [Chalupa’s ensuing tweet reeks of fear & desperation.]

       Nellie Ohr, wife of senior U.S. Justice Department official Bruce Ohr, acknowledged in congressional testimony that, while working for the Clinton-hired research firm Fusion GPS, she researched Trump and Manafort’s ties to Russia and learned Leshchenko, the Ukrainian lawmaker, was providing dirt to Fusion…

       Telizhenko, a former political officer who worked under Chaly from December 2015 through June 2016, told me he was instructed by the ambassador and his top deputy to meet with Chalupa in March 2016 and to gather whatever dirt Ukraine had in its government files about Trump and Manafort…

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/441892-ukrainian-embassy-confirms-dnc-contractor-solicited-trump-dirt-in-2016#.XMt5WoF7CVY.twitter

 

@AlexandraChalup: The most patriotic act Americans can take to protect the Office of the Presidency is to remove Donald Trump by the 25th Amendment or Impeachment.  We have a civic duty to protect our nation and Constitution, and enough reason and evidence to justify both means of removal now.

 

NYT: F.B.I. Sent Investigator Posing as Assistant to Meet With Trump Aide in 2016 [AKA spying]

They are now under scrutiny as part of an investigation by Michael E. Horowitz, the Justice Department inspector general… Mr. Horowitz has focused among other things on the activities of Mr. Halper, who accompanied Ms. Turk [alias] in one of her meetings with Mr. Papadopoulos and also met with him and other campaign aides separately… Secrecy was paramount for the F.B.I. officials because of thesensitivities of investigating campaign advisers during a presidential race… [Clearly spying]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/02/us/politics/fbi-government-investigator-trump.html

 

@GeorgePapa19: I agree with everything in this superb article except “Azra Turk” clearly was not FBI. She was CIA and affiliated with Turkish intel. She could hardly speak English and was tasked to meet me about my work in the energy sector offshore Israel/Cyprus which Turkey was competing with

    I will make the job easy for America’s reporters. The US/Turkish/Australian/UK intel agencies who targeted me knew I had NO RUSSIA contacts. They were after my work on the east med pipeline that they all wanted to stop. Unfortunately for them, the project was implemented in 2017.

 

@seanmdav: This NYT article mentions a senior FBI counterintel agent out of New York who allegedly activated Stefan Halper against the Trump campaign. It says that agent spoke at a conference run by Halper, but for some reason doesn’t name him or say when that conference was held… Alan Kohler has been an agent with the FBI’s Norfolk office for a few years, which leaves Somma or Ennis, who worked closely with Comey confidant Preet Bharara, as the agent who ran multiple spies against the Trump campaign in 2016.

 

@paulsperry_: NOW we know (belatedly from NYT, which is trying to get out in front of criticism they chased the wrong story for past 3 yrs) that Comey, McCabe & Strzok launched a sting op against Trump adviser Papa-D using Halper AND a honey-pot FBI agent in coordination with British intel!

    Funny how Mueller cites numerous email exchanges Papadopoulos had in 2016 in the footnotes of his report, yet he cites not a single one of Papadopoulos’ emails with one “Azra Turk.” Hmm. Wonder why. Another example of how Mueller’s probe was really designed to protect the FBI/DOJ

 

The WSJ’s @KimStrassel: Just how many spies did the FBI run at the Trump campaign? (BTW, no coincidence things like this are leaking now. Everyone trying to get out ahead of Barr’s investigation.)

 

Sen. Graham: Dems Are ‘MAD’ at Barr Because They Didn’t Get the ‘Outcome They Wanted’

https://www.hannity.com/media-room/graham-on-hannity-dems-are-mad-at-barr-because-they-didnt-get-the-outcome-they-wanted/

 

Barr Is The Man For The Job. It Scares the Heck out of Those He’s Investigating.

It is evident that former senior Obama administration officials and opponents of President Trump know that and fear it… The DOJ is now investigating the origins of the FBI’s investigation and that frankly, is scaring the heck out of those who were involved…. He isn’t new to the internal politicking in Washington D.C. and is well aware of the intelligence and law enforcement apparatus…

    And they are fighting back with whatever ammo they have left.  The ammunition is disinformation and gaslighting the public using main stream outlets. It is a war and they are in the final battle using everything at their disposal to go after the one man that can expose all of it: Barr

https://saraacarter.com/barr-is-the-man-for-the-job-it-scares-the-heck-out-of-those-hes-investigating/

 

White House rips Mueller in letter to DOJ, says team ‘failed in their duty to act as prosecutors’

Flood noted prosecutors “simply are not in the business of establishing innocence” and described these as “political statements.”[“Does not exonerate him” phrase] 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-rips-mueller-in-letter-to-doj-says-his-team-failed-in-their-duty-to-act-as-prosecutors

 

@JackPosobiec : Special Counsel Mueller “deeply disturbed” by Pelosi accusations against AG Barr today and is urging Nadler to push up his hearing to testify and correct the record as soon as possible

 

BTW, a Dem attempt to impeach Barr would be obstruction of Barr’s investigation into Spygate.

 

Former Vice President Joe Biden tells reporters Attorney General William Barr has ‘lost the confidence of the American people’ https://reut.rs/2GTtlri

 

Last week, Joe bragged that he got a Ukraine prosecutor fired.  Joe and his son have Ukraine and China problems.  Joe’s son received millions of dollars from Ukraine and China – after official visits from Joe.

 

NYT: Biden Faces Conflict of Interest Questions That Are Being Promoted by Trump and Allies

Biden… threatened to withhold $1 billion in United States loan guarantees if Ukraine’s leaders did not dismiss the country’s top prosecutor…

    Among those who had a stake in the outcome was Hunter Biden, Mr. Biden’s younger son, who at the time was on the board of an energy company owned by a Ukrainian oligarch who had been in the sights of the fired prosecutor general…

     Hunter Biden’s work in Ukraine appears to have been well compensated. Burisma paid $3.4 million to a company called Rosemont Seneca Bohai LLC from mid-April 2014, when Hunter Biden and Mr. Archer joined the board, to late 2015, according to the financial data provided by the Ukrainian deputy prosecutor. The payments continued after that, according to people familiar with the arrangement…

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/01/us/politics/biden-son-ukraine.html

 

Biden’s Alleged Financial Ties to U.S. Enemy China Overshadow His 2020 Bid

The vice president is negotiating a bunch of very sensitive issues with the Chinese, including the South China Sea, trade, tech transfer, etc. Biden is criticized on that trip for basically going soft on Beijing. Shortly after they return to the U.S., Hunter Biden’s firm receives a $1 billion private equity deal from the Chinese government[via the Bank of China]. Not from an American business in China; from the Chinese government itself. It later gets increased to $1.5 billion. We have no way of knowing how much Rosemont made on the deal because there are no disclosure requirements…

https://thefederalist.com/2019/05/02/bidens-alleged-financial-ties-u-s-enemy-china-overshadow-2020-bid/

 

Des Moines Register’s @sgrubermiller: Biden is skeptical of the threat of competition from China.

“China is going to eat our lunch? Come on, man.” “They’re not bad folks, folks. But guess what? They’re not competition for us.”

 

Biden’s comments downplaying China threat to U.S. fire up pols on both sides

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/biden-s-comments-downplaying-china-threat-u-s-fires-pols-n1001236

 

High School Considers Removing George Washington Murals Because They ‘Traumatize’ Students

A San Francisco Unified School District working group wants the murals removed and hidden away in storage… the Northern California high school is also attempting to get rid of Benjamin Franklin

https://ilovemyfreedom.org/disgrace-high-school-considers-removing-george-washington-murals-because-they-traumatize-students/

 

I WILL SEE YOU MONDAY NIGHT
PROBABLY LATE IN THE EVENING.
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