MAY 6

I was out all day today and away from my computer

 

the comex data is complete including data from GLD and SLV

 

the morning data is accurate

 

the afternoon and closing Dow  nasdaq data is from Friday

 

i will resume my normal routine tomorrow

 

AND SORRY FOR MY REPORT BEING INCOMPLETE..

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1282.50  UP $2.35 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $14.92 DOWN 3 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :

 

 

 

silver:

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 9/13

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,279.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/03/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 05/07/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 C JP MORGAN 9
737 C ADVANTAGE 5 4
905 C ADM 8
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 13 13
MONTH TO DATE: 158

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 13 NOTICE(S) FOR 1300 OZ (0.0404 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  158 NOTICES FOR 15800 OZ  (.4914 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MAY

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76 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 380,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 2977 for 14,885,000 oz

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Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :$5680  DOWN 95.00

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $5756 DOWN 13

 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2193 CONTRACTS FROM 202,655 DOWN TO 200,109 DESPITE FRIDAY’S STRONG 34 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. ,LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED FOR SILVER BUT IT NOW COMMENCES FOR GOLD. TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

 0 FOR MAY, 0 FOR JUNE, 698 FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  698 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 698 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 698 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.49 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 34 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

AND NOW 17.860 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MAY:

7522 CONTRACTS (FOR 4 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 7522 CONTRACTS) OR 37.61 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1880 CONTRACTS OR 9.4 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY:  37.61 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 5.37% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          779.46    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2193 DESPITE THE STRONG 34 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 698 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS RESUMED THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES TODAY.

 

TODAY WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED: 1495 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 698 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 698 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 34 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.95 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.008 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 144% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 76 NOTICE(S) FOR  380,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ AND NOW MAY:  17,750,000 OZ..
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2775 CONTRACTS, TO 440,217 DESPITE THE STRONG RISE IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(AN INCREASE IN PRICE OF $9.35//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 9114 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 9114 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS, JUNE 2020  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 440,217. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6339 CONTRACTS: 2775 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 9114 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 6339 CONTRACTS OR 633,900 OZ OR 19,716 TONNES.  FRIDAY WE HAD A GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF  $9.35….AND WITH THAT RISE, WE  HAD A STRONG GAIN IN TONNAGE OF 25.82 TONNES!!!!!!.?????????????????????????????????????????? 

AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS HAVE NOW SWITCHED TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

 

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ENTER A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI: 

“YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF  SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 27,375 CONTRACTS OR 2,727,500OR 85.15 TONNES (4 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 6843 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 4 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 85.15 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 85.15/3550 x 100% TONNES =2.39% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     1900.72 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2775 DESPITE THE RISE IN PRICING ($9.35) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 9114 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 9114 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN GOOD GAIN OF 6339 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

9114 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2775 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 19.716 TONNES). ..AND THIS GOOD DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $9.35 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. HOWEVER A  PERCENTAGE OF OI WAS DUE TO THE COMMENCEMENT OF THE SPREADING OPERATION AS I HAVE OUTLINED ABOVE.

 

 

 

we had:  76 notice(s) filed upon for 7600 oz of gold at the comex.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $2.35  TODAY 

STRANGE!!

 

ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.88 TONNES

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE REACHED THE BOTTOM OF THE BARREL FOR PHYSICAL GOLD BEING SUPPLIED TO THE CROOKS.

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY:

A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

A DEPOSIT OF 891,000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2193 CONTRACTS from 200,655 UP  DOWN TO 200,109 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED THEIR LIQUIDATION IN SILVER BUT HAVE NOW MORPHED INTO GOLD..

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE:

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 0 FOR MAY, FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 698 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 698 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2193 CONTRACTS TO THE 698 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A CONSIDERABLE LOSS OF 1495 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4.7545 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL AND NOW 17.750 MILLION OZ FOR MAY

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 34 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 698 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  DOWN 171.88 POINTS OR 5.58%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 871.73 POINTS OR 2.90%   /The Nikkei closed //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .89%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7651 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 63.26 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.38 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7651 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7813 TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP THREATENS TO RAISE RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 China/Chinese affairs

i)China/USA

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)GERMANY

 

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

 

 

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//

 

 

 

ii)Market data

 

ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

SWAMP STORIES

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2775 CONTRACTS.TO A LEVEL OF 440,217 DESPITE THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($9.35) IN FRIDAY’S // COMEX TRADING) 

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 9114 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

0 FOR JUNE ’19: 9114 CONTRACTS , DEC; 0 CONTRACTS: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  9114 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 6339 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 9114 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2775 COMEX CONTRACTS.

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 6339 contracts OR 633900 OZ OR 19.716 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of MAY and here the open interest stands at 136 contracts, having LOST 17 contracts. We had 27 notices served yesterday so we gained 10 contracts or an additional 1000  oz will stand as they guys refused to morph into a London based forward as well as negating a fiat bonus

The next contract month after May is June and here the open interest FELL by 5687 contracts up to 291,355.  July LOST  1 contract to stand at 51.  After July the next active month is August and here the OI rose by 2351 contracts up to 77,625 contracts.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 13 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  1300  OZ. (0.0404 TONNES)

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2193 CONTRACTS FROM 202,302 DOWN TO 200,109(AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S CONSIDERABLE OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED DESPITE A STRONG 34 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//FRIDAY.???

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.  HERE WE HAVE 671 OPEN INTEREST STAND SO FAR FOR A LOSS OF ONLY 340CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 362 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO IN ESSENCE WE GAINED ANOTHER  22 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 110,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. SILVER MUST BE SCARCE AT THE COMEX. QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE. WE HAVE NOW SURPASSED THE INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING WHICH OCCURED ON APRIL 30.2019

 

 

 

THE NEXT MONTH AFTER MAY IS THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF  JUNE.  HERE THIS MONTH LOST 170 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 714. AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY, (THE SECOND LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR FOR SILVER) AND HERE THIS MONTH LOST 2129 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 152,559 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 76 notice(s) filed for 380,000 OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  254,651  CONTRACTS 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  293,964  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  MAY/GOLD

MAY 6 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
11,726.258
oz
hsbc
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
13 notice(s)
 1300 OZ
(0.0404TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
123 contracts
(12300 oz)
0.3825 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
158 notices
15800 OZ
.4914 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else:  zero oz

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside/ again zero amount arrived  today

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

(maybe investors are taking our advice by not storing their gold at the comex.)

this will hurt our bankers as they need to replace leased gold as all gold stored at the gold comex is unallocated.

 

Gold withdrawals;

i)  We had one withdrawal:

Out of HSBC:  11,726.248 oz

 

.

total gold withdrawals; 11,726.248 oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustments today

FOR THE MAY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 13 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 9 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (158) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (136 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (13 x 100 oz per contract) equals 28,100 OZ OR 0.8740 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of MAY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (158 x 100 oz)  + (136)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (13 x 100 oz )which equals 28,100 oz standing OR 0.8740 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of MAY.

We gained 10 contracts or an additional 1000 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into a London based forwards. Queue jumping continues where we left off last month in gold and for that matter in silver.  We now have two precious metals undergoing queue jumping as the bankers scramble to obtain physical metal.

 

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 6.604 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 0.8740 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  212,322.479 oz or  6.604tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,770.289.523 oz 241.68 tonnes

 

 

FOR COMPARISON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR APRIL 2018 AND FINAL STANDING APRIL 30 2018

 

 

AT FIRST DAY NOTICE MAY 1 2018: WE HAD 1.284 TONNES OF GOLD STAND.  BY MONTH’S END:  2.27 TONNES AS WE HAD ONE QUEUE JUMPING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

IN THE LAST 31 MONTHS 113 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

MAY 6 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
21,934.000 oz
Delaware

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
537,619.785oz
int. delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
76
CONTRACT(S)
(380,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
595 contracts
2,975,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 2977 contracts

14,885,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 149.469 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.80% of all official comex silver. (149 million/305 million)

 

into Int. Delaware:  21,934.020 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  557,619.785 oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of Delaware: 21,934.020 oz

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 21,934.020 oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

out of CNT:  5238.800 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

 

 

total dealer silver:  95.182 million

total dealer + customer silver:  308.244 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MAY 2019. contract month is represented by 76 contract(s) FOR  380,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2977 x 5,000 oz = 14,885,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (671) and the number of notices served upon today (76 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY/2019 contract month: 2977(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY( 671) -number of notices served upon today (37)x 5000 oz equals 17,860,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month.

We GAINED 22 contracts or an additional 110,000 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus for their efforts.

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON VS LAST YEAR:

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE APRIL 30/2018 (FOR THE MAY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH) WE HAD 24.11 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY.  BY MONTH END WE HAD HUGE QUEUE JUMPING AND THUS 36.285 MILLION OZ EVENTUALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  66,559 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 89,841 CONTRACTS..

 

..

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 89,841 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 449 million  OZ 64.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -4.54% (MAY 6/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -2.52% to NAV (MAY 6/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.54%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.84 TRADING 12.26/DISCOUNT 4.49

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $9.35 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.52

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD UP $4.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES//

APRIL 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.2//ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 746.69 TONNES TONNES

APRIL 25//WITH GOLD UP $.05 TODAY  (BASICALLY FLAT) NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

 

APRIL 24 WITH GOLD UP  $6.00 TODAY// TWO TRANSACTIONS: 1)A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD AND THEN II) ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

APRIL 23./WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES//

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD UP $1.75//A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT752.27 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES AT THE GLD WHICH WAS USED IN YESTERDAY’S RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 752.27 TONNES

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.03

APRIL 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $2.10 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757..85 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.45 AGAIN TODAY, THE CROOKS AGAIN RAIDED THE COOKE JAR BY 2.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.49 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40: THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 761.67 TONNES.

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD UP$1.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF PHYSICAL GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.55 TONNES

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.29 TONNES

APRIL 3:WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS: ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL: 3.81 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  764.29 TONNES

APRIL 2//WOW! WE LOST A WHOPPING 16.16 TONNES OF GOLD WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $1.80//INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.10

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

MAY 6/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 739.64 tonnes

*IN LAST 591 TRADING DAYS: 194.33 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 491 TRADING DAYS: A NET 28.49 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN LOST INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE REACHED THE BOTTOM OF THE BARREL FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE GLD.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 891,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582

MAY 3//WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 843,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/TOTAL INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.691 MILLION OZ//

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 13 CENTS, MIRACUOUSLY THE AUTHORITIES ADD 2.869 MILLION OZ OF SILVER BACK INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.848 MILLION OZ//

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ////

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 29/ WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 26//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 23./WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A SHOCKING 2.8122 MILLION PAPER OZ WERE ADDED INTO SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15: WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 12 WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 750,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ//

April 10/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:  THE CROOKS CANNOT RAID ANY SILVER BECAUSE THERE IS NONE: INVENTORY RETS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 4/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP TWO CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/ WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ FROM THE SLV TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167

 

 

 

MAY 6/2019:

 

Inventory 316.582 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.11/ and libor 6 month duration 2.64

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .53/

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.46%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.74

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.28

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold To Gain as Gl

 

 
end

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

Silver is backward by a huge 7 cents and that should propel a strong rally in silver.

(courtesy Andrew Maguire/Kingworldnews)



iii) Other Physical stories

-END-

Gold trading/

 

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7651/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7813   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 171.88 POINTS OR 5.58%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 871.73 POINTS OR 2.90%

 

2. Nikkei closed

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED RED EXCEPT LONDON

 

USA dollar index RISES TO 97.56/Euro FALLS TO 1.10.42

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.52/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 61.36 and Brent: 70.30

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +01%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.60% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.98%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.59: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.34

3k Gold at $1281.50 silver at: 14.88   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 1/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.38

3m oil into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and 70 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.82 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0184 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1340 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.01%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.48% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.89%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.0141.. VERY DEADLY

“This Was Totally Out Of The Blue”: Global Stocks Crash As Trade Talks Collapse

The S&P closed on Friday at a new all time high, with hardly a concern in the world and nothing but blue skies ahead… and then just two tweets from Donald Trump shortly after noon on Sunday afternoon shattered the market’s idyllic picture, when the US president admitted that trade talks with China are not only not going “optimistically”, but have effectively collapsed and tariffs on Chinese imports would be hiked.

The result, discussed overnight, was a “sea of red” as risk assets and currencies across the globe collapsed, offset by a flight into safe assets including Treasuries and the US dollar. The MSCI world index fell half a percent.

Trump sharply escalated tensions between the world’s two largest economies with tweeted comments on Sunday that trade talks with China were proceeding “too slowly”, and that he would raise tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25 percent on Friday from 10 percent. The tweets stirred up the near-record calm market mood arising from signs of improving economic growth in China and the United States, and from comments from Trump and other senior U.S. officials that trade talks were going well.

As risk reeled, the VIX headed for its biggest increase in 2019 (something we discussed as a distinct possibility on Sunday afternoon)…

… while futures on the S&P 500 index sank as much as 2.2 percent, tumbling back below 2,900 and approaching the 2,890 level where dealer gamma turns negative, and any continued selloff will only lead to further selling.

European stocks tumbled to a one-month low, suffering their biggest drop of the year…

… as German bond yields slipped back into negative territory. Germany’s DAX was down 1.8% while the Stoxx 600 tumbled 2% to  its lowest level since early April. Moves were slightly exaggerated, with Japanese markets still on holidays while London markets shut for a local holiday.  Losses in equities translated into gains for bonds with benchmark government bond yields in Germany retreating to a shade below zero and not far from a 2-1/2-year low of minus 0.09 percent hit in late March.

Even as Beijing tried to salvage some clam, when China’s foreign ministry said on Monday a delegation was still preparing to go to United States for trade talks, but was unable to confirm when amid signs that a delay is now being considered, the benchmark index in Shanghai crashed 5.6%, with the Shanghai Composite suffering its worst day since February 2016 and sliding back under 3,000 even after Chinese state-backed funds were said to have been active in an effort to limit the sell-off.

Kweichow Moutai Co. and China Life Insurance Co. were among the biggest drags. The S&P BSE Sensex Index dropped 0.9%, driven by Housing Development Finance Co. and HDFC Bank Ltd. The Straits Times Index retreated 3%, its biggest drop in about seven months

Chinese risk tumbled even though the PBOC announced just before 9:30am Monday morning (Beijing time) that the reserve requirements (RRR) for selected small banks will be lowered from May 15, 2019, a move expected to release liquidity of RMB 280 billion. While the PBOC may have already been working on introducing this measure in an effort to ease funding costs for small enterprises, the exact timing of the release may have been accelerated by heightened trade tensions with the US.

Elsewhere in Asia stocks sank, driven by financial and communication firms, even as markets in Japan, South Korea and Thailand remained closed.

Wall Street strategists, until last week worryfree and optimistic, “suddenly” but predictably turned apocalyptic:

  • The market was caught on the wrong foot as everyone expected talks were heading in the right direction and almost close to finishing,” said Daniel Lenz, a rates strategist at Commerzbank. “This was totally out of the blue and the reaction is that we have more risk aversion today.”
  • “It’s making the outcomes more binary, with everybody focused on the Friday deadline — there doesn’t seem to be much leeway now to much go past that,” Joyce Chang, chair of global research at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said on Bloomberg Television. “It’s going to mean that investors will be very focused on the trade issues even beyond China,” with a review of U.S. auto-import tariffs still pending.
  • “We have continued to warn that U.S.-China talks could still break down, and have ascribed a 30% probability to this risk scenario,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “If this latest exchange were to halt progress and create a series of escalating tariffs as we head into the U.S. election season, it could lead to further declines for global risk assets”
  • “If we do see a breakdown in negotiations and the Chinese team doesn’t go to Washington then we will see some really significant downside corrections to the Aussie and kiwi, and a massive upturn in volatility,” said Nick Twidale, chief operating officer at Rakuten Securities Australia Pty in Sydney.

The latest episode in the trade war comes on the back of weeks of low market volatility across asset classes and a growing swathe of tepid but steady economic data with little negative surprises lulling investors into a sense of calm.

Adding to a complex global picture, North Korea carried out a weapons test that potentially included its first ballistic missile launch since 2017, challenging Trump’s bottom line in nuclear talks, while the US reportedly sailed two aircraft carriers to Iran to send a “clear message” that any attack on US interests or allies will be met with unrelenting force.

In FX, Bloomberg USD index is 0.3% higher, with most major pairs trading sideways in the European morning, with USD/CNH up 0.7%, after yuan earlier sank by the most since January 2016. The yen led gains among the Group-of-10 currencies amid renewed trade concerns, while emerging market currencies and commodity-linked currencies were the hardest hit with the Australian dollar falling half a percent against the greenback while the offshore yuan swooned nearly a percent.

In commodity markets, Trump’s tweets sparked a plunge in oil prices. WTI dropped as much as 3.1% to a more-than-five-week low, before bouncing to $60.69 per barrel – still off 1.3% on the day. Brent crude was 1.8% lower at $69.59 per barrel. Meanwhile, the selloff in risky assets burnished the lure of gold with spot gold up 0.25 percent to trade at $1,282.20 per ounce. Cryptos were largely unchanged.

Air Canada, AIG, and Qiagen are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 1.9% to 2,893.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.4% to 384.90
  • MXAP down 1% to 161.39
  • MXAPJ down 1.8% to 531.42
  • Nikkei down 0.2% to 22,258.73
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,617.93
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.9% to 29,209.82
  • Shanghai Composite down 5.6% to 2,906.46
  • Sensex down 0.9% to 38,608.08
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 6,283.73
  • Kospi down 0.7% to 2,196.32
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to 0.007%
  • Euro down 0.09% to $1.1188
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 2.19%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to 0.972%
  • Brent futures down 1.5% to $69.79/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,283.07
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 97.59

Top Overnight News

  • Talks between the U.S. and China to resolve their year-long trade standoff appeared to have stalled after Trump’s threat to raise duties. China’s foreign ministry said officials were still planning to travel to the U.S. for the next round of talks, but didn’t confirm when amid signs that a delay was being considered
  • Chinese state-backed funds were active in selected stocks on Monday, people familiar with the matter said, seeking to cushion the blow from a sudden escalation in trade tensions with the U.S. Among the funds’ targets were two large oil companies, the people familiar said
  • Adding to the mix, North Korea carried out a live-fire military exercise Saturday that potentially included the country’s first ballistic missile launch since 2017, challenging Trump’s bottom line in nuclear talks
  • The Turkish lira weakened past a key psychological level against the dollar as traders braced for the prospect of prolonged political turmoil and a global market rout piled pressure on emerging-market currencies
  • Economic activity in the euro area showed signs of stabilization in April – both the composite and services Purchasing Managers’ Index for April were higher than the initial estimate which a separate report showed investor confidence in the region rose this month to its highest since November

Asia-Pac indices and US equity futures began the week with heavy losses as US-China trade tensions flared up after President Trump tweeted that the US will raise the 10% tariffs on USD 200bln of Chinese goods to 25% and suggested they will soon extend 25% tariffs to an additional USD 325bln of Chinese goods which are currently untaxed. Furthermore, China’s potential cancellation of this week’s trade discussions in Washington added to the pressure for equity futures and in turn wiped out all of Friday’s gains from the Goldilocks jobs report. ASX 200 (-0.8%) was negative with the index led lower by underperformance in tech and with the top-weighted financials sector also pressured amid losses in ‘Big 4’ bank Westpac after it reported a 24% drop in H1 statutory profit. Elsewhere, all components in the Hang Seng (-3.5%) were negative and the Shanghai Comp. (-5.2%) slumped heavily due to the renewed tariff threats which reportedly could shed 1.5% off China’s GDP growth, while a PBoC liquidity injection and targeted RRR cut for small and medium-sized banks, as well as mixed Caixin Services and Composite PMI data did little to brighten the sentiment in China. As a reminder, Japan and South Korea remained shut for Children’s Day.

US President Trump stated over the weekend that the US will raise the 10% tariffs on USD 200bln of Chinese goods to 25% beginning on Friday and suggested that USD 325bln of additional goods from China which remain untaxed, will be shortly at a rate of 25%, while he suggested the trade agreement with China is proceeding too slowly and firmly rejects efforts to renegotiate. Furthermore, there were also reports that President Trump was told by aides that significant hurdles remain to reaching a trade agreement with China and a source familiar with President Trump’s thoughts on tariffs said that China have been backing away from agreements the US negotiating team believed they had already made. (Newswires/Twitter/Axios) This follows comments from President Trump on Friday that the US is doing fine with China regarding talks and that progress towards a deal are going “pretty well”, while he added that a deal may happen in a couple of weeks although US will be fine if it doesn’t happen.

China is said to be mulling cancelling trade discussions this week following US President Trump’s tariff threats. It was also reported that some working level Chinese officials have postponed their flights to the US and may fly as late as May 8th which is the date of the negotiations and that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is very unlikely to go to the US this week, However, reports later suggested that Vice Premier Liu could delay his trip by 3 days and shorten it to only 1 day for trade talks.

Subsequently, Chinese Foreign Ministry state that they hope the US can meet China halfway on trade talks the delegation is making preparations to go the US, and Ministry refrained to answer if Vice Premier He will partake in the delegation. Addeed that their Navy has instructed US ships to leave the South China Sea and refrain from such provocative acts.

Top Asian News

  • Bharti Is Said to Kick Off IPO of $5 Billion Africa Arm in May
  • Japan Set for Golden Week Hangover as Trade War Roils Markets
  • Tencent-Backed DouYu Is Said to Delay Launch of $500m U.S. IPO
  • Philippines Targets $500M From First Euro Bond Sale Since 2006

Major European Indices [Euro Stoxx 50 -2.0%] have begun the week with heavy losses in-line with their Asian counterparts and US equity futures as markets move back into risk-off mode following US President Trump tweeting that the US will raise tariffs on USD 200bln of Chinese goods from 10% to 25% and indicated that they will consider extending the scope of tariffs to include an additional USD 325bln of goods which are currently not taxed. However, subsequent comments from China’s Foreign Ministry, that they hope the US can meet China halfway on trade talks and that the delegation are preparing to go to the US, did generate a glimmer of positivity across markets. Although, it is still unclear if Vice Premier Liu He will feature in this delegation. Losses across European indices are broad based with no standout under/out performer, and a similar scene is present across sectors. Although, luxury names such as Christian Dior (-3.7%) and Kering (-3.0%) are heavily weighed on by the increased US-China trade tensions. Similarly, auto names are lower due to their supply chains being particularly vulnerable to trade tensions, Volkswagen (-3.5%) have been hit the hardest, with the Co’s CEO previously stating that import tariffs from the US on the EU could cost the Co. billions of euros each year. Other notable movers this morning include ThyssenKrupp (-4.2%) amidst reports that EU anti-trust regulators are likely to block the Co’s proposed merger with Tata Steel due to concerns over potential price increases and the impact on competition; the proposed merger would create Europe’s second largest steel producer and follows comments from Tata Steel’s European Works Council that they do not believe the merger is in the best interest of the Co’s workers. At the other end of the Stoxx 600, and today’s only notable mover in positive territory are Telenor (+4.0%) following reports that the Co. and Axiata have initiated discussions to merge their Asian operations with the Co. likely to own 56.5% of the merger.

Top European News

  • Euro-Area Order Growth Signals Some Hope as Economy Stabilizes
  • May Is Said to Draft New Customs Law for Brexit Deal With Corbyn
  • Race to Replace Draghi Spurs ECB Calls for Fed-Style Rethink
  • Costa Stakes Re-Election Claim as Portugal’s Biggest Fiscal Hawk

In FX, while the Usd holds above Friday’s post-NFP lows and the DXY pivots around 97.500, safe-haven positioning in wake of latest US-Chinese trade developments and a diplomatic spat between the 2 nations over naval vessels in the South China Sea has heightened demand for the Yen and Franc. Following Trump tweets threatening to imposes higher tariffs on Usd200 bn worth of Chinese goods this Friday with a further Usd325 bn possibly subject to increased levies, Usd/Jpy reversed through 111.00 and all the way down to circa 110.30, while stops are said to have been tripped in Eur/Chf on a break of 1.1370 pushing the cross towards 1.1350 and the 200 DMA (1.1345). However, some respite has tempered aversion as China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry says a delegation is still preparing to head to Washington this week and subsequently seen rebounds to around 110.70 and 1.1375 respectively.

  • GBP/AUD/CAD/NZD/NOK/SEK – The main G10 underperformers and casualties of the broad risk off start to the new week, as Cable probes support ahead of 1.3100 amidst ongoing Brexit uncertainty and the UK public holiday, while the Aussie, Loonie and Kiwi are all trying to stabilise following declines to 0.6963, 1.3493 and 0.6601. Aud/Usd and Nzd/Usd are also maintaining a defensive stance in the run up to RBA and RBNZ policy meetings that are both expected to be ‘live’ in terms of easing prospects, while the deterioration in US-China relations has also undermined oil to the detriment of the Cad and Nok (latter down near 9.8000 vs the Eur). Back down under, hefty option expiry interest may provide support and resistance in Aud/Usd given 1.1 bn at the 0.6950 strike and 1 bn at 0.7000-15. Elsewhere, Eur/Sek is elevated around 10.7200 on the back of another soft Swedish PMI as the services headline dips, albeit still comfortably above the 50.0 threshold unlike manufacturing.
  • EUR – Conversely, an upward revision to the final pan Eurozone services PMI despite mixed national surveys, slightly firmer than expected retail sales data and an encouraging Sentix Index have all helped the single currency contain losses within a 1.1200-1.1160 range vs the Dollar. Note also, decent option expiry interest could be keeping the headline pair rangebound as 1.6 bn runs off between 1.1150-60 vs 1.1 bn from 1.1185-1.1200.
  • EM – Widespread losses vs the Greenback amidst the aforementioned generally sour sentiment, as Usd/Cnh rallies through 6.8000 at one stage vs the PBoC’s official 6.3744 Usd/Cny fix, while Usd/Zar tests offers ahead of 14.5000 in advance of Wednesday’s SA elections and Usd/Try peers over 6.0000 on the ongoing and well documented Turkish, plus CBRT concerns about (higher) PPI cost pressures exerting and increasingly stronger influence on CPI.

Brent (-1.0%) and WTI (-1.3%) have also succumbed to the general risk tone, although are currently trading within a relatively thin band with prices having recovered from overnight lows which were just a shade below USD 69/bbl and just above the USD 60/bbl levels respectively. Aside from the all-encompassing US-China story news flow for the complex has been somewhat thin, notably Saudi Aramco raised their OSP for all crude grades to all regions (ex-US) for June, with Arab Light’s price falling by USD 0.10/bbl for the US. Gold (+0.3%), along with other safe havens, has benefitted from the increased US-China tension and the resulting risk off sentiment, with the yellow metal now trading towards the middle of a USD 7/oz range which did see it reach USD 1287/oz. Copper, has suffered as the metals largest buyer China returned to market, after a 3-day Labour Day holiday last week, with China playing catchup and sentiment being impacted by updates regarding the potential increase or imposition of tariffs on China. Iron ore port holdings in China fell 1.8% to 133.6mln tons which is the lowest since October 2017. (Newswires)

US Event Calendar:

  • Nothing major scheduled
  • 9:30am: Fed’s Harker Speaks on the Economic Outlook

 

end

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  DOWN 171.88 POINTS OR 5.58%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 871.73 POINTS OR 2.90%   /The Nikkei closed //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .89%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7651 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 63.26 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.38 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7651 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7813 TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP THREATENS TO RAISE RATES TO 25%

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA
North Korea launches short range missiles but that did not bother Bolton/Pompeo/Trump as of yet
(courtesy zerohedge)

North Korea Fires Short-Range Missile: Yonhap

North Korea launched an unidentified short-range missile in the direction of the East Sea on Saturday, according to South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said that the North “fired a missile from its east coast town of Wonsan in the eastern direction at 9:06 a.m. today.”

The incident marks the first missile launch since November 28, 2017 when it launched an ICBM which traveled 600 miles in 50 minutes until crashing into the Sea of Japan.

South Korean and US authorities “are analyzing details of the missile,” added the JCS.

Last month, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un gave the United States “till the end of this year” before he walks away from negotiations over his country’s missile program, suggesting that the Trump administration needs to be more flexible.

In February, talks between Kim and US President Trump abruptly broke down after it was reported that Trump handed Kim a piece of paper demanding Pyongyang give the United States its existing nuclear weapons and enriched uranium, according to Reuterswhich described the document as representing US National Security Adviser John “Bolton’s long-held hardline “Libya model” of denuclearization. A lunch between the two leaders was canceled that day.

On the flipside, North Korea reportedly asked that the United States remove the strategic nuclear umbrella and the dismantling of the Indian Pacific Command, according to South Korea’s DongA

In Mid-February speech to the Supreme People’s Assembly, Kim argued “It is essential for the U.S. to quit its current calculation method and approach us with a new one,” adding that the United States came “to the talks only racking its brain to find ways that are absolutely impracticable,” and did “not really ready itself to sit with us face-to-face and settle the problem,” Kim added – nothing that his personal relationship with Trump is still good.

If it (the United States) keeps thinking that way, it will never be able to move the DPRK even a knuckle, nor gain any interests no matter how many times it may sit for talks with the DPRK,” added the North Korean leader.

Kim said that the outcome in Hanoi caused him to question what he agreed to last year during the first summit with Trump, and “aroused a strong question if we were right in taking the steps with strategic decision and bold resolution, and evoked vigilance as to the U.S.’ true willingness to improve its relations with the DPRK.”

We will wait for a bold decision from the U.S. with patience till the end of this year but I think it will definitely be difficult to get such a good opportunity as the previous summit. -Kim Jong Un

Trump responded to Kim’s outburst, tweeting “A third Summit would be good in that we fully understand where we each stand,” adding “I look forward to the day, which could be soon, when Nuclear Weapons and Sanctions can be removed, and then watching North Korea become one of the most successful nations of the World!” Trump added.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I agree with Kim Jong Un of North Korea that our personal relationship remains very good, perhaps the term excellent would be even more accurate, and that a third Summit would be good in that we fully understand where we each stand. North Korea has tremendous potential for…….

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….extraordinary growth, economic success and riches under the leadership of Chairman Kim. I look forward to the day, which could be soon, when Nuclear Weapons and Sanctions can be removed, and then watching North Korea become one of the most successful nations of the World!

We’ll see if this latest missile test changes anything.

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

end

3 C CHINA/CHINESE AFFAIRS

i)China/USA

Trade deal is dead.  Trump says that the 10% China tariffs will be rising to 25% on Friday on another 325$ in goods to be taxed

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trade Deal Dead: Trump Says 10% China Tariff Rising To 25% On Friday, Another $325BN In Goods To Be Taxed

So much for months and months of constant leaks, headlines, tweets, and press reports that US-China trade talks are going great, and are imminent amid an ocean of “optimism” (meant solely to sucker in amateurs into the most obvious bull headfake since 1987).

Just after noon on Sunday, President Trump tweeted that 10% tariffs paid by China on $200 billion in goods will rise to 25% on Friday, and that – contrary to what he himself and his chief economist, Larry Kudlow has said for months, talks on a trade deal have been going too slowly.

And, just to underscore his point, Trump also threatened to impose 25% tariffs on an additional $325 billion of Chinese goods “shortly.”

With the tariff rate on numerous goods originally set at 10% and set to more than double in 2019, Trump postponed that decision after China and the US agreed to sit down for trade talks; following Trump’s tweet it is now confirmed that trade talks have hit an impasse and that escalation will be needed to break the stalemate.

It was as recently as Friday that Vice President Mike Pence told CNBC that Trump remained hopeful that he could strike a deal with China (at the same time as he was urging for a rate cut from the Fed).

Curiously, on Wednesday, the White House – clearly hoping to sucker in even more naive bulls to buy stocks at all time highs – said the latest round of talks had moved Beijing and Washington closer to an agreement. Press secretary Sarah Sanders said, “Discussions remain focused toward making substantial progress on important structural issues and re-balancing the US-China trade relationship.”

In recent weeks there were multiple reports that China and U.S. were close to a trade deal, and an agreement could come as soon as Friday. Major sticking points the U.S. and China have been intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers. There has also been disagreement as to whether tariffs be removed or remain in place as an enforcement mechanism.

While it was not clear why Trump has decided to escalate his tariff policy, the most obvious explanation is that for a White House, which has been obsessed with pushing the S&P to record levels, this was the last lever it had at its disposal. And now that the S&P is back at all time highs, the lies can end, if only for the time being.

end

 

5 am:

Despite the deal being dead, the Chinese trade delegation trip to Washington is still happening despite Trump’s threats of raising the tariffs to 25%

(courtesy zerohedge)

Beijing Says Trade Delegation’s Trip To Washington Still Happening Despite Trump Threats

With Chinese stocks down a staggering 6% on Monday during their worst session in three years, Chinese state media scrambled to project an air of calm. Though his comments did little to quiet stormy markets, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told reporters Monday that a trade delegation is still “preparing to travel to the U.S. for trade talks” or what was – according to the US, at least – supposed to be the ‘final round’ of negotiations. However, he declined to say whether Vice Premier Liu He would join the delegation, Reutersreported.

The Global Times, an English language mouthpiece for the Chinese government, affirmed that the delegation’s decision to stick with its travel plans following Trump’s threat to hike tariffs this week over frustrations with the grinding pace of talks (which, until last week, had, according to both sides, had been inching closer to a deal) should be seen as a “gesture of goodwill”).

Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT

I got the information that Chinese delegation may still go to the US. This should be seen as a good will from the Chinese side.

However, the South China Morning Post reported that Liu might delay his trip and leave Beijing on Thursday, three days later than previously scheduled, or possibly cancel the trip altogether.

In any case, Geng said during the press conference that China’s positions were “clear” and that they hoped to work toward a deal that would “benefit both sides”.

“There have been many times that the US side has threatened to increase tariffs,” Geng said when asked about Trump’s tweets on Sunday which threatened to impose punitive tariffs on US$200 billion of imports from China tariffs beginning on Friday. “China’s positions are clear and the US side is well aware of them.”

“[We have hoped] to make progress in our trade talks and [we] hope the US side can work together with us and move in the same direction so we can achieve a deal that can benefit both sides. Everyone in China and abroad is very concerned about the next round of talks, and we are also learning about the relevant changes. The Chinese delegation is preparing to go to the US for the negotiations.”

One analyst told SCMP that the Chinese are familiar with Trump’s tactics, and seemed to imply that China wouldn’t cancel the talks because that would allow Trump to blame them for the collapse.

“If China cancels the trip, Trump would blame China for the failure of the trade negotiations,” he said.

One possible response from China could be to send a smaller delegation to US, he said.

“After the intensive talks, China is familiar with the style of Trump and his administration. Trump’s flip-flop announcement is not a big surprise for China, but China should be prepared for the worse-than-worst scenario,” Lu Said.

But in the US, Dow futures were off more than 500 points, the USD/JPY was off 0.4% to its lowest level since late March, as China’s onshore yuan hurtled toward new lows of 7 to the dollar and oil tumbled 1.5% as the faltering trade talks revived fears about global growth.

Trump’s warning that he planned to move ahead with a planned tariff hike that had been suspended after Trump and President Xi fist agreed to pursue talks during a dinner in Buenos Aires, and then again at the end of February, followed a flurry of reports last week that the Chinese were demanding steep concessions from the US, which had caused talks to stall. The head of the US Chamber of Commerce had also warned that China was pushing back against US demands to end subsidies to state-backed firms “in a broad range of sectors.”

Reports in Chinese media pushed back on the insistence by the US side that a deal would hopefully be reached by the end of this week, when the 11th round of talks would have concluded. The Chinese side described this as a “trick” and a “pressure campaign” to try and bully Beijing.

“It’s the same tactic as the US threatening to raise tariffs. It is merely smoke and mirrors to exert extreme pressure [on China],” the post said. “You don’t have to take it seriously.”

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said shortly before he and Robert Lighthizer headed to Beijing last week for a 10th round of talks that the US side expected to “either recommend to the president we have a deal or make a recommendation that we don’t.”

Trump initially imposed duties of 25% on an initial $50 billion of Chinese goods in July and August last year and then slapped another 10% on an additional $200 billion in products in September.

Meanwhile, as the return of open trade hostilities between the US and China hammers markets around the world, the Europeans have voiced their frustration with Trump’s threats.

  • HEAD OF GERMAN CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE TELLS AUGSBURGER ALLGEMEINE NEWSPAPER ANNOUNCEMENT OF NEW TARIFFS BY U.S. ON CHINESE GOODS “NOT GOOD AT ALL FOR GERMAN ECONOMY”

With the market’s four-month streak of steady gains suddenly shattered, all eyes will be on what Trump tweets next.

end
8 am:
China is now said to cancel the Washington trip as it seems that the trade deal is dead.
(courtesy zerohedge)

S&P Futures Plummet As China Said To Cancel Washington Trade Trip, All Eyes On S&P 2,890

It’s only appropriate that the S&P may be about to suffer its biggest drop of the year one day after hitting a new all time high.

For those who are only now catching up, the reason why futures are tumbling is that just after 12pm ET, Trump tweeted that trade talks – which according to the White House, media leaks and Larry Kudlow would be basically concluded by next week – are instead effectively dead, as the current 10% tariff will spike to 25% on Friday, while an additional $325BN in goods will be subject to new trade tariffs.

Some saw in Trump’s tweet a retaliation for Friday’s North Korea ballistic missile launch, the first since 2017, and one which would not have happened without the explicit blessing of Beijing.

Others were more nuanced, and Nomura’s Charlie McElligott writing late on Sunday that “either this is an epic act “rope-a-dope” posturing and poker-playing from POTUS to collect a (self-perceived) “better” deal “win” thereafter…as the 500-handle rally in Spooz has given Trump enough confidence to absorb a market drawdown and again “lean-into” what some in the administration believe is Chinese “slow-playing”—all in an attempt from to extract additional last-minute deal concessions, after last week’s reported negotiation setbacks—OR a raging ‘miscalculation’ with “vigilante” markets.”

For now it is looking like it’s the latter, with futures tumbling and the Emini down a whopping 55 points on Sunday night, shaping up as the third biggest intraday drop of the year so far.

But Nasdaq is worst for now (down over 2%) as Dow is down 500 points.

Meanwhile, the (non-USD) FX markes is getting absolutely crushed, with China proxies such as the Aussie and Kiwi tumbling, because, as McElligott adds, the key risk is that the offshore Yuan (CNH) may tumble – which it is currently, plunging over 1.3%, or the biggest move since Jan 2016, “as market forces anticipate that China may allow the Yuan to weaken considerably IF they choose to retaliate (a big “IF”), following their prior perceived ‘goodwill’ controlling of the exchange rate within a tight band the past three months for trade negotiation purposes.”

Treasury futures are dramatically bid (implying a 7.5bps drop in 10Y yields).

Meanwhile, in an attempt to prevent a Sunday rout, Goldman published a note after 6pm Eastern, in which the bank’s chief political economist, Alec Phillips, comments on Trump’s announcement that the tariff rate on $200bn of imports from China will rise from 10% to 25%, noting that it “lowers the odds of a successful conclusion to US-China trade talks and raises the odds of further tariff escalation. However, we think it is more likely that the increase will be narrowly avoided and believe the odds of tariffs increasing on Friday are 40%.”

Well, it may be time for Goldman to rename itself Gartman Sachs, because the digital ink wasn’t even dry yet on that note when the WSJ reported that China is considering canceling trade talks with the U.S. After Trump’s sudden, unexplained threats, adding that:

  • Trump’s Tweets Threatening New Tariffs Surprised Chinese Officials
  • Decision Weighs on Whether Vice Premier Liu He Goes to Washington as Planned
  • Canceling Talks Conform to China’s Strategy Not to Negotiate Under Threat

And while the WSJ was somewhat tentative in its reporting, reporter Edwards Lawrence was far more convinced that it’s pretty much game over: “Chinese Vice Premier Liu He has cancelled his trip to Washington this week for trade talks following a tweet by President Donald Trump threatening more tariffs because the talks have moved too slowly. ”

Edward Lawrence

@EdwardLawrence

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He has cancelled his trip to Washington this week for trade talks following a tweet by President Donald Trump threatening more tariffs because the talks have moved too slowly.

So it looks like it is indeed likely that US-China trade talks may be about to implode (especially with Goldman’s “kiss”). Meanwhile, going back to McElligott’s note, this “unexpected” negative development couldn’t come at a worse time for investors, as after avoiding rushing into the meltup for over 4 months, “it was leveraged funds who were finally “forced in” last week (through start of week), covering $9B of SPX futures short positioning, while we also saw Macro Funds take up their “Beta to SPX” WoW, going from 11th %ile to now 51st %ile into the start of the week.  Tough timing.” Tough indeed, and here are some other “tough” observations:

  • There is a very large Asset Mgr ‘net long’ in US Eq Futs, as they currently hold a total $123B net long notional position across US Equities Futures (SPX, NDX, Russell)—with $62.4B / half of the overall position bought YTD alone
  • As half of this position then is deeply ‘in the money,’ it would make sense that an extreme ‘risk-negative’ reaction to this news by the market tonight / tomorrow could elicit AM profit-taking to monetize some of this performance YTD

Finally, with the Emini back under 2,900 all eyes are now back on 2,890 – that’s both where dealer gamma turns negative again, selling begets more selling…

Source: Nomura

… and is also where the CTAs start dumping in earnest, as per these latest updated market triggers, according to McElligott:

  • S&P 500, currently 100.0% long, as of tomorrow would be selling under 2878.76 to get to +57%, more selling under 2635.85 to get to -100% , flip to short under 2636.14 max short under 2635.85 —deleveraging triggers moves up to 2894.26 in a week and 2900 in 2 weeks, in 3 weeks 2932
  • Russell 2000, currently 100.0% long, as of tomorrow would be selling under 1565.7 to get to +57%, more selling under 1557.82 to get to -100% , flip to short under 1557.98 max short under 1557.82–deleveraging levels move up to 1600 in a week, 1617.52 in 2 weeks, in 3m weeks 1616
  • NASDAQ 100, currently 100.0% long, as of tomorrow would be selling under 7578.15 to get to +57%,  more selling under 6657.92 to get to -100% , flip to short under 6658.7, max short under 6657.92–deleveraging levels move up to 7641 in a week, 7687.84 in 2 weeks, in 3m weeks 7842.53

For the TL/DR crowd: Steven Mnuchin better have the PPT on speed dial.

end

Amazing:  Chinese media has a total blackout on every mention of the failed Trump trade deal from the Chinese internet

(courtesy zerohedge)

Media Blackout Scrubs All Mention Of Trump’s Trade Threats From Chinese Internet

In a sign of just how much President Trump’s threats to hike tariffs (and impose new levies) have rattled Beijing, which is struggling to preserve its world-beating market rally while trying to boost growth as the pace has continued to slacken in the new year, Bloombergreported on Monday that the Communist Party’s censorship machine wiped all traces of Trump’s threats from the Chinese Internet.

Though Chinese media has reported that its delegation is still planning on traveling to Washington this week (even if Vice Premier Liu He might delay his arrival or skip the trip entirely), more than 16 hours after Trump tweeted his threats, researchers could find no trace of them on Weibo, Tencent’s popular WeChat app or China’s search engine Baidu.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the USA of 25% on 50 Billion Dollars of High Tech, and 10% on 200 Billion Dollars of other goods. These payments are partially responsible for our great economic results. The 10% will go up to 25% on Friday. 325 Billions Dollars….

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….of additional goods sent to us by China remain untaxed, but will be shortly, at a rate of 25%. The Tariffs paid to the USA have had little impact on product cost, mostly borne by China. The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate. No!

This must have been puzzling to millions of Chinese investors, seeing as with the Shenzhen Composite closing 7% lower, Chinese stocks embarked on their worst session in three years, while the yuan recorded its largest daily drop in just as long. Still, there was no mention of Trump’s threats in the official Xinhua News Agency to the more market-oriented Caixin and even the often belligerent Global Times.

On Chinese search engine Baidu, the top US news was President Trump’s “very productive” Friday phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But among the savvier Internet users who often manage to circumvent government censorship to tap into foreign news, some compared Trump to  Thanos, the villain from the Avengers film series, complaining that Trump wiped out Chinese stocks with a snap of his fingers.

end

Trump has had enough of losing to China:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Doubles Down: ‘We’re Not Going To Lose To Beijing Anymore’ 

Just when US equity futures were finally starting to move higher after Dow futures had lingered around the -500 level for most of the morning, President Trump doubled-down on his antagonistic stance toward Beijing, tweeting that the US was done losing “500 billion dollars” a year in trade to China.

The message was clear: Trump isn’t backing down from his threats to hike tariffs and impose new ones, even after sending global markets into paroxysms with a series of tweets on Sunday.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The United States has been losing, for many years, 600 to 800 Billion Dollars a year on Trade. With China we lose 500 Billion Dollars. Sorry, we’re not going to be doing that anymore!

Trump latest tweet follows reports that Beijing was still planning to send a trade delegation to the US this week, but that Vice Premier Liu He, the official who has led the Beijing side during the now ten rounds of talks that have been held over the past year, might either delay a trip to Washington by a few days, or not go at all.

It supports the view that, given the market’s robust performance since the start of the year, Trump feels he has the latitude to ratchet up  the pressure on Beijing, given the strength of the labor market and Q1 GDP.

Put another way:

FxMacro@fxmacro

if China was waiting to see if Trump would walk it back he’s not…

FxMacro@fxmacro

TRUMP SLAMS CHINA TRADE IN TWEET, NOT GOING TO LOSE TO BEIJING ANYMORE

Trump sails 2 destroyers through the South China Sea provoking Beijing again as trade tensions flare up
(courtesy zerohedge)

US Sails 2 Destroyers Through South China Sea, Provoking Beijing As Trade Tensions Flare

Though the US military has repeatedly insisted that its ‘freedom of navigation’ operations in the South China Sea were totally disconnected to trade talks with China, the timing of the latest operation in which two American destroyers sailed within 12 nautical miles of some of the contested Spratly Islands, cast doubt on these claims.

Not long after President Trump sent global markets into turmoil after threatening via tweet to raise tariffs tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, citing frustrations with thee lack of progress in trade talks, US guided-missile destroyers Preble and Chung Hoon traveled within 12 nautical miles of Gaven and Johnson Reefs in the Spratly Islands, infuriating Beijing at a particularly tense time for global markets.

Navy

According to Reuters, Seventh Fleet spokesman Commander Clay Doss said the “innocent passage” aimed “to challenge excessive maritime claims and preserve access to the waterways as governed by international law.”

In Beijing, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Geng Shuang, who also tried to reassure markets that the Chinese trade delegation might still travel to Washington for the 11th round of trade talks this week, blasted the US over its decision to carry out the ‘freeop’, Reuters reported.

“The relevant moves by the US ships infringed upon Chinese sovereignty, and damaged the peace, security and good order of the relevant seas. China is strongly dissatisfied with this and resolutely opposed to it,” Geng said.

“China urges the United States to stop such provocative actions,” he added, while threatening that China would continue to take the necessary steps to defend its sovereignty and security.

Military tensions between China and the US in the Pacific have flared as Beijing has carried out menacing military exercises in the Strait of Taiwan, while ratcheting up its rhetoric about reunifying the ‘wayward province’ with the rest of China, something the Taiwanese vehemently oppose.

China claims all of the South China Sea as its territory, and has for years been building out the small islands and reefs and converting them into what Steve Bannon once called ‘immovable air craft carriers.’ Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam have made competing claims to some of the islands, and an international court ruled a few years ago in favor of the Philippines, though Beijing promptly ignored this ruling. Beijing has repeatedly defended its decision as vital for Chinese security.

But a DoD report released last week warned that Beijing’s efforts to militarize the South China Sea are part of a broader plan to wrest military dominance in the region away from the US. Beijing also criticized the US last month by warning that ‘freeops’ shouldn’t be used to infringe on the rights of other nations.

The latest provocation closely follows a major naval parade meant to mark 70 years since the founding of the Chinese Navy, to which the US only sent a low-level delegation.

Still, with trade tensions flaring and talks in danger of collapsing for the first time in five months, it’s difficult to believe that the timing of this latest freeop – which have, in the past, been totally ignored by markets – is just a coincidence.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY/HUNGARY

Italy and Hungary force an alliance to defend Europe’s borders from migrant invasion

(Taer/SaraCarter.com)

Italy And Hungary Forge Alliance To Defend Europe’s Borders From Migrant Invasion

Authored by Jennie Taer via SaraCarter.com,

At their talks in Budapest on Thursday, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of the Interior Matteo Salvini agreed on the importance of strong nation states, on the need to give priority in Europe to European culture based on Christian values, and on border defence.

At a joint press conference held with Mr. Salvini – who is also head of the Italian government party Lega – Mr. Orbán said they both believe the following:

that there will be no strong Europe without strong and successful nation states;

that on the continent priority must be given to European culture based on Christian values;

and that “Europe’s borders must be defended against the migrant invasion”.

Speaking about Italy’s response to migration, Viktor Orbán praised Mr. Salvini for “his efforts in achieving on the sea what we have done on land”.

He said that the success of these efforts is of crucial importance.

Viktor Orbán described Matteo Salvini’s visit to Budapest as an honour, adding that cooperation between the governments of the two countries has reached its highest point so far.

He said that “the citizens of Europe will benefit from listening to Italy and Hungary rather than President Macron.”

Viktor Orbán also outlined the Hungarian proposal for the establishment of a new body comprising the interior ministers of the Schengen Area countries. He stated that powers related to migration should be taken away from the European Commission and delegated to such a body.

Click here for more on this…

END
UK
The Brexit party soars in European Parliament polls;  it is a huge 9 points ahead of the 2nd best showing: the Labour party
(courtesy Mish Shedlock)

Brexit Party Soars In European Parliament Polls, 9 Points Ahead Of Labour

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Nigel Farage’s newly formed Brexit Party is in first place in European Parliament polls, pulling well ahead of Labour.

The Brexit Party Continues to Surge in the polls for the European elections as Change UK fall behind Lib Dems.

  • Nigel Farage is continuing to smile after the latest polls for the EU elections continue to show the Brexit Party leading the way.
  • Despite only being launched last month, the Brexit Party quickly stormed to the top of the polls – and the latest set of figures show their support has only increased.
  • According to YouGov, Mr Farage’s party are now polling on 30% – an increase of 2% from the previous poll.

Michael Heaver

@Michael_Heaver

2,000+ turned out in Newport for the Brexit Party.

“This wasn’t like party conferences, there was noise, excitement, and the number of selfies and pictures should show the regard supporters hold their candidates in.” https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/inside-slick-brexit-party-rally-16202231?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar 

Inside a slick Brexit Party rally with Nigel Farage and panto chanting

The Brexit Party held its first Welsh rally in Newport as it leads the polls for the European election – and more than 2,000 people turned out

walesonline.co.uk

Rising Brexit Support

Party Positions

The above table represents the official party position. Most Tories (Conservative) do not favor Theresa May’s pathetically negotiated withdrawal agreement.

Many in the Labour party favor remaining, a referendum, or even leaving.

Both the Tories and Labour splintered mightily over Brexit but Labour fared better, at least for now.

Change UK is a group of pro-Remain misfits of former Tories and former Labour who left their parties in disputes over Brexit.

They have little in common other than a foolish desire to remain in the EU.

In the next UK general election, most of the Change UK supporters will be voted out of office.

Pro-Brexit Support

Support for pro-Brexit parties is seemingly overwhelming 68%.

Appearances deceive. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn favors a customs unions, an arrangement even worse than remaining.

Unless the EU makes a special deal, a customs union would limit the UK’s ability to make trade treaties on it own, tie the UK to many inane EU policies, make the UK pay fees for single market access and give give the UK no say in EU policies.

It’s crazy to back such a state of affairs, but that is the official Labour position.

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Friday night: Hamas launches nearly 100 rockets in one hour on Israel in a massive escalation

(courtesy zerohedge)

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

7  OIL ISSUES

this is going to be a powder keg:  Turkey does not recognize the sovereignty of the Greek islands.  Turkey does not recognize Greek _Cypriot lands to the south of the Turkish Cypriot lands to the north.  Israel discovered natural gas off its coast and relayed the findings that the discovery moved onto Cyprus waters.  Now Turkey wants this discovery.  Greece is fully allied with Israel who will defend the properties

stay tuned…

(courtesy zerohedge)

EU Expresses “Grave Concern” About Turkey’s Drilling In Cyprus’ EEZ

The European Union has expressed its “grave concern” about the upcoming drilling to be conducted by Turkey in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Cyprus.

Turkey does not recognize the government in Nicosia or its agreements regarding EEZ. Ankara thinks that the right to extract gas should also be exercised by the Turkish Cypriots and also by Turkey in the case of Blocks 4, 5, 6, and 7, through which – according to Ankara – passes the Turkish maritime border (the map below).

As KeepTalkingGreece reports, in a statement issued on Saturday, EU’s High Representative and Vice President Federica Mogherini said that the European Council had “strongly condemned Turkey’s continuous illegal actions in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.”

Mogherini pledged to “respond appropriately and in full solidarity with Cyprus.”

Mogherini’s statement:

“We express grave concern over Turkey’s announced intention to carry out drilling activities within the exclusive economic zone of Cyprus. In March 2018, the European Council strongly condemned Turkey’s continued illegal actions in the Eastern Mediterranean. In this context, we urgently call on Turkey to show restraint, respect the sovereign rights of Cyprus in its exclusive economic zone and refrain from any such illegal action to which the European Union will respond appropriately and in full solidarity with Cyprus.”

As we poreviously notedaccording to a recent statement from Greece’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs:

“Greek-Turkish disputes over the Aegean continental shelf date back to November 1973, when the Turkish Government Gazette published a decision to grant the Turkish national petroleum company permits to conduct research in the Greek continental shelf west of Greek islands in the Eastern Aegean.

“Since then, the repeated Turkish attempts to violate Greece’s sovereign rights on the continental shelf have become a serious source of friction in the two countries’ bilateral relations, even bringing them close to war (1974, 1976, 1987).”

This friction has only increased with the authoritarian rule of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, particularly since, as Uzay Bulut notes:

There is one issue on which Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), are in complete agreement: The conviction that the Greek islands are occupied Turkish territory and must be reconquered. So strong is this determination that the leaders of both parties have openly threatened to invade the Aegean.

The only conflict on this issue between the two parties is in competing to prove which is more powerful and patriotic, and which possesses the courage to carry out the threat against Greece. While the CHP is accusing President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s AKP party of enabling Greece to occupy Turkish lands, the AKP is attacking the CHP, Turkey’s founding party, for allowing Greece to take the islands through the 1924 Treaty of Lausanne, the 1932 Turkish-Italian Agreements, and the 1947 Paris Treaty, which recognized the islands of the Aegean as Greek territory.

This has been Turkish policy despite the fact that both Greece and Turkey have been members of NATO since 1952. Greece became a member of the European Union in 1981 — a status that Turkey has spent decades failing to achieve, mainly due to its human-rights violations.

Recently, EU and Turkish officials met in Brussels on November 30 to discuss an intelligence-sharing agreement between the European Police Service (Europol) and Ankara. Such an agreement is reportedly one of 72 requirements that Ankara would have to meet in order to receive visa-free travel to the Schengen zone.

Ankara’s ongoing challenges to Greek land and sea sovereignty are additional reasons to keep it from enjoying full acceptance in Europe and the rest of the West.

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS

VENEZUELA

 

end
Your humour of the day:

Tickets To See The Clintons Offered For Less Than $10

Tickets for the last stop on Bill and Hillary Clinton’s 13-city speaking tour are selling for less than $10 on the secondary market.

Screenshot: Stub Hub

Ticketmaster prices have also plummeted, as Hot Air‘s Karen Townsend notes:

A glance for tickets available on sale at Ticketmaster online shows they begin at $45.72 and go up to $257.18. I wrote about this tour back at the beginning of December and even then, ticket sales were slow and had to be discounted. Perhaps realizing they were on rocky ground, the two Clintons first took the tour to Canada as a soft opening before their American dates. The fine folks in Toronto were less than impressed and the ticket sales showed a lack of interest in the former President and his wife, the woman who felt entitled to the presidency but lost to her old friend Donald Trump. –Hot Air

Last Friday, prime seats at Seattle’s WaMu theater were selling on ticketmaster for $829 – 54% lower than the $1,785 they were asking when the tour was announced in November.

In Decemberthe Clintons turned to Groupon – offering tickets at nearly 60% off after failing to attract crowds at full price.

That month, the Daily Mail reported that just 3,300 tickets were sold in the Scotiabank Arena in very liberal downtown Toronto, which holds 19,800.

Ticket sales were so bad that the New York Times‘ Maureen Dowd noted the power couple’s steady decline. After paying $177 for a ticket to hear the Clintons, the Washington Examiner‘s Byron York noted that Dowd could have simply waited until the day of the event and paid less than $10.

Byron York

@ByronYork

Maureen Dowd paid $177 for a ticket to hear Bill & Hillary Clinton. If she had waited til day of the event, she could have gotten one for less than $10. That’s how popular the tour is… http://ow.ly/ewrx30mPAAM

During Friday’s appearance in Seattle, the Clintons were met by an overwhelming positive audience, according to the Seattle Times.

I really believe that we are in a crisis, a constitutional crisis,” Clinton proclaimed during the 90-minute question and answer session between her, husband Bill and actor Bradley Whitford – adding “This is a test for our country.”

Although Clinton did not specifically cite the Russian collusion conspiracy theory nor try to tie the Trump campaign with Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, she said the Mueller Report “not only decisively proves but goes chapter and verse about how the Russians — in the words of the report — conducted ‘a sweeping and systemic interference in our election,’” according to the Times. “And then you wake up and your president is spending an hour on the phone with Vladimir Putin, who was the mastermind of the interference and attack on our election.” –Daily Caller

Alas for Democrats who missed it, the sour grapes tour is over – at least in this format.

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1199 DOWN .0003 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED EXCEPT LONDON

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.82 DOWN 0.270 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3108   DOWN   0.0060  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3471 UP .0054 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 3 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  FALLING to 1.1199 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 177.88 POINTS OR 5.58% 

 

 

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 871.73 POINTS OR 2.90%

 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .89%// EUROPEAN BOURSES RED EXCEPT LONDON

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning CLOSED HOLIDAY 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED RED EXCEPT LONDON

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 871.83 POINTS OF 2.90% 

 

 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 171.88 POINTS OR 5.58% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN  .89% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED HOLIDAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1281.60

silver:$14.85

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.48% !!! DOWN 5 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.89 DOWN 4  IN BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 97.56 UP 8 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  MONDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.12%  UP 1 in basis point(s) yield from FRIDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.04%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.98% DOWN 2   IN basis point yield from FRIDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.56 UP 1  POINTS in basis point yield from FRIDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 158 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES +.03%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.53% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.11888  DOWN     .0015 or 15 basis points

 

USA/Japan: 111.26 DOWN 0.2240 OR YEN UP 22  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3141 UP .01097 POUND UP 110  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 44 basis points to 1.3426

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed AT 6.7354    0N SHORE  (DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7390  (YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.9686 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.04%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 2.53 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.93 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.59  DOWN 25  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 29,33  0.40%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 67.33 POINTS OR .55%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 9.96 POINTS OR .18%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 8.60 POINTS or 0.09%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 53.10 POINTS OR 0.24%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 62.22 1:00 pm

Brent Oil: 71,36 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.10  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.28 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 28 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO +.03 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  62.00

 

 

BRENT :  70.83

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.53…   STILL DEADLY//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.93..VERY DEADLY

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1200 ( UP 28   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.09 DOWN .401 (YEN UP 40 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.48 DOWN 35 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.3170 UP 139 POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.9664

 

the Russian rouble 65.10   UP 28 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 28 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3423 UP 47 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7354  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7351 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,+0.03%

 

The Dow closed  UP 197.16 POINTS OR 0.75%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 127.22 POINTS OR 1.58%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.55 CLOSED DOWN 1.55

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.565%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.575

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

US Stocks Stage Miraculous Rebound While Global Economy Suffers Longest Losing Streak In History

With less than 100 words and just two tweets, President Trump kicked out one of the most important legs of the delusional stool that has lifted the US stock market by the most in 32 years since the start of the year… and everything was going so well before that…

China was a bloodbath overnight…the biggest drop since Jan 2016

Catching down to Europe and US equity markets YTD…

Europe tumbled at the open but the BTFD’ers stepped in to make things more reasonable (Spain led, Italy lagged)…

 

It was an ugly start last night for US stocks as Dow futures crashed 500 points and Nasdaq down over 2.3%… but by the close of the cash markets, it was barely a fleshwound…

Small Caps ended the day green…

Hipster@Hipster_Trader

Don’t ever doubt the PPT

See Hipster’s other Tweets

All on the back of a giant short-squeeze…

The S&P traded very technically, testing critical levels and filling gaps…

And VIX was clubbed like a baby seal…

TICK data swung from its biggest selling program since Jan 28th to the biggest buying program since March 21st…(the biggest swing since the first day of 2019)…

 

Bonds were bid but yields rose all afternoon as stocks soared (though yields ended lower on the day)

 

The DXY Dollar Index ended the day marginally higher after a major roundtrip reversing at the US cash equity market open…

 

Yuan was smashed lower during the China session then miraculously bid for the rest of the day (still closed weaker against the dollar)

 

Gold and Silver were unch against the dollar but Crude and copper soared…

 

Gold spiked against the initially weak Yuan but the rest of the day was spent rebalancing Yuan…

 

And finally, while we have noted numerous times (too numerous to count) the decoupling between stock prices and any top-down or bottom-up fun-durr-mentals this year…

Schwab’s Jeff Kleintop has some bad news for all…

Jeffrey Kleintop

@JeffreyKleintop

Longest losing streak in 20 year history for the global manufacturing PMI.

177 people are talking about this

As Terreus Capital notes: “Green shoots? Global Manufacturing PMI slips to 50.3 – lowest since July 2016. This is longest losing streak in 20 year history for the global manufacturing PMI. New orders, new export orders, output, employment all well below their long run trends.”

END

Market trading: Early Monday morning

Dow Futures Plunge 500 Points Amid Trump Trade Threat Turmoil

Update: Futures markets have just opened and Dow Futures are down 500 points…

All of Friday’s melt-up to record high gains, gone…

VIX Futures spiked to 16.8…

WTI Crude futures are down over 2% at the open…

Treasury futures are soaring (equivalent to around a 6bps plunge in 10Y Yield to 2.46% – pre-Fed levels)

What is more problematic, as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott warns in an emergency note this evening:

Either this is an epic act “rope-a-dope” posturing and poker-playing from POTUS to collect a (self-perceived) “better” deal “win” thereafter… as the 500-handle rally in Spooz has given Trump enough confidence to absorb a market drawdown and again “lean-into” what some in the administration believe is Chinese “slow-playing” – all in an attempt from to extract additional last-minute deal concessions, after last week’s reported negotiation setbacks –

OR a raging ‘miscalculation’ with “vigilante” markets.

SPX / SPY consolidated options “Gamma” is set to flip ‘negative’ around 2890 as an “acceleration point” where moves could get sloppy with dealer hedging.

Asset managers could turn “sellers” of their very profitable futures length acquired YTD:

There is a very large Asset Mgr ‘net long’ in US Eq Futs, as they currently hold a total $123B net long notional position across US Equities Futures (SPX, NDX, Russell)—with $62.4B / half of the overall position bought YTD alone.

As half of this position then is deeply ‘in the money,’ it would make sense that an extreme ‘risk-negative’ reaction to this news by the market tonight / tomorrow could elicit AM profit-taking to monetize some of this performance YTD

Final point – it was leveraged funds who were finally “forced in” last week (through start of week), covering $9B of SPX futures short positioning…

while we also saw Macro Funds take up their “Beta to SPX” WoW, going from 11th %ile to now 51st %ile into the start of the week.

Tough timing.

Black Monday?

How long before Trump walks back his threats?

*  *  *

As we detailed earlier, indications across the (admittedly thin) FX markets is that ‘pain’ is on its way for risk assets after Trump’s China Trade deal threats.

Yuan has plunged over 500 pips to 3-month lows…

For context…this is the biggest yuan crash since August…

And USDJPY is down notably (typically signaling derisking of carry-trade funded risk assets)…

We’ll see if the algos buy the dip when US futures market open. Also note that China is still on holiday today.

end

ii)Market data/

 

end

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

 

SWAMP STORIES

The following is the genesis of the hoax Russian collusion of the USA election.  The seeds were grown from several meetings that Papadopoulos had with Maltese Professor Mifsud.  Mifsud is either a Russian agent or a USA agent. Believe it or not but Mifsud is also a Clinton Foundation member.

Now Nunes demands all FBI records on Mifsud.

(courtesy zerohedge)

“This Was Not Spying, It Was Entrapment”: Bongino Spits Fire As Nunes Demands Mifsud Docs

For over two years, anyone who suggested that the Russia investigation was a sham was harshly ridiculed by establishment mouthpieces as a conspiracy theorist. The notion that the Obama Justice Department (led by Eric “wingman” Holder and then Loretta “tarmac” Lynch) could have conspired with other US intel agencies and foreigners to paint Donald Trump as a Russian stooge was considered beyond the pale.

Then we found out that virtually the entire FBI’s top brass absolutely hate Donald Trump and supported Hillary Clinton; the former of whom the FBI launched a counterintelligence investigation against, while giving Hillary a pass despite the fact that she destroyed evidence from her homebrew basement server while under subpoena. We were asked to believe that the FBI’s extreme biases played no role in their investigations, while the left insisted that special counsel Robert Mueller was going to confirm fairy tales of Russian collusion peddled by a Clinton-funded dossier.

And then the Mueller report came out – blowing the Russian collusion narrative out of the water, while painting a damning picture that suggests the entire genesis of the FBI’s counterintelligence investigation, Crossfire Hurricane, was a setup.

Dan Bongino

One of those brave enough to risk his reputation laying out what was going on before the Mueller report dropped is conservative commentator and former US Secret Service agent Dan Bongino – who has repeatedly mentioned the suspicious role of self-described Clinton Foundation member Joseph Mifsud,a Maltese professor who seeded the rumor that Russia had ‘dirt’ on Hillary Clinton to Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos on April 26, 2016 – shortly after returning from Moscow, according to the Mueller report.

Two weeks laterPapadopoulos would be bilked for information by Australian diplomat (another Clinton ally) Alexander Downer at a London bar, who relayed the Kremlin ‘dirt’ rumor to Australian authorities, which alerted the FBI (as the story goes), and operation Crossfire Hurricane was thus hatched. 

George Papadopoulos@GeorgePapa19

We have now pinned Peter Strzok’s boss, Bill Priestap, in London the week of May 6th, 2016 and on the 9th. The day before Alexander Downer was sent to spy on me and record our meeting. Congress must release the transcripts and embarrass the deep state.

Back to Mifsud… 

As Bongino lays out, there are two working theories about Mifsud. The first is that he’s a Russian asset who tried to bait the Trump campaign. The second is that Mifsud was working for US intelligence services and seeded Papadopoulos with the ‘dirt’ rumor in order to kick off the FBI’s counterintelligence operation. 

Embedded video

M3thods@M2Madness

.@dbongino on why Mifsud is key in Spygate:

“So either we have a Russian asset who’s infiltrated the highest echelons of friendly Intelligence Services, or we have a friendly who was setting up @GeorgePapa19 – That’s the real scandal. This was not spying, this was entrapment.”

Bongino went into greater detail last month on Fox News – including that Mifsud’s lawyer says he’s connected to western, “friendly” intelligence:

We know that Papadopoulos met multiple times with Mifsud in the first half of 2016:

  • March 14 2016 – Papadopoulos first meets Mifsud in Italy– approximately one week after finding out he will be joining the Trump team.
  • March 24 2016 – Papadopoulos, Mifsud, Olga Polonskaya and unknown fourth party meet in a London cafe.
  • April 18 2016 – Mifsud introduces Papadopoulos to Ivan Timofeev, an official at a state-sponsored think tank called Russian International Affairs Council.
  • April 26 2016  – Mifsud tells Papadopoulos he’s met with high-level Russian government officials who have “dirt” on Clinton. Papadopoulos will tell the FBI he learned of the emails prior to joining the Trump Campaign.
  • May 13 2016 – Mifsud emails Papadopoulos an update of “recent conversations”.

Note: Papadopoulos and Mifsud reportedly both worked at the London Centre of International Law Practice. –The Markets Work

In short – based on what we know, it appears that Joseph Mifsud was part of a setup by Western intelligence services on then-candidate Donald Trump. 

Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸

@JackPosobiec

Did You Know:

A Company Whose Director Represents Joseph Mifsud Changed Its Name To “No Vichok Ltd” After The Salisbury Attack

“Novichok” was the nerve agent used to poison fmr GRU agent Sergei Skripal when the UK govt was caught lying about the analysis from Porton Down

(it’s true)

Great claims require great evidence, however, which is why Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) has requested a wide swath of documents about Mifsud from several federal agencies. 

As the Washington Examiner reports, Nunes – the House Intelligence Committee ranking member, “seeks information about who Mifsud was working for at the time and wrote in a letter that special counsel Robert Mueller “omits any mention of a wide range of contacts Mifsud had with Western political institutions and individuals” in his report on Russian interference in the 2016 election.”

As part of Mueller’s Russia investigation, Papadopoulos pleaded guilty in October 2017 to making false statements to the FBI about his contacts with Russians and served 12 days in prison late last year.

The special counsel’s sentencing memo to the District Court for the District of Columbia said Papadopoulos hindered the FBI’s ability to get to Mifsud. “The defendant’s lies undermined investigators’ ability to challenge the Professor or potentially detain or arrest him while he was still in the United States. The government understands that the Professor left the United States on February 11, 2017 and he has not returned to the United States since then,” the memo said.

In his letter, Nunes says it is “still a mystery how the FBI knew to ask Papadopoulos specifically about Hillary Clinton’s emails” if the bureau had not spoken with Mifsud. –Washington Examiner

“If he is in fact a Russian agent, it would be one of the biggest intelligence scandals for not only the United States, but also our allies like the Italians and the Brits and others. Because if Mifsud is a Russian agent, he would know all kinds of our intelligence agents throughout the globe,” said Nunes during a recent interview with Fox News‘ Sean Hannity.

Techno Fog@Techno_Fog

When the truth comes out about Misfud —

Remember that Mueller and Weissmann also tried to hide from the public Kilimnik’s ties to US intelligence.

Techno Fog@Techno_Fog

Look deeper at the Report re: Mifsud. One interesting omission —

Why are there zero citations to Mifsud’s 302 in the Mueller Report?

end

IT’S HAPPENING!… BREAKING: Rep. Nunes Requests Info From State Dept, CIA, FBI, NSA on Joseph Mifsud — Deep State Spy

BREAKING—-

Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) requested information on Friday from the State Department, CIA, FBI and NSA on operative Joseph Mifsud.

THIS IS DEVASTATING NEWS FOR ROBERT MUELLER AND THE DEMOCRATS ON THE SPECIAL COUNSEL — who lied in their report on their operative Joseph Mifsud who was NOT a Russian operative as the Mueller report claimed he was.

FOX News reported:

It has long been suggested that Mifsud was connected to Russian intelligence. But Nunes, in a Friday letter obtained by Fox News, questions that assumption, saying Mueller’s report “omits any mention of a wide range of contacts Mifsud had with Western political institutions and individuals.”

Mifsud is a crucial figure in the report: Mueller’s report states that Mifsud was the one who told Papadopoulos in April 26 2016 that the Russians had “dirt” in the form of emails that could damage Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign.

As the story goes, Papadopoulos then told Australian diplomat Alexander Downer about his conversations with Mifsud. Downer then informed U.S. officials, leading the FBI to open its investigation into whether Trump associates were coordinating with Russia during the 2016 election. (May 10)

Nunes also is seeking information about the FBI’s contacts with Mifsud – asking how the bureau knew to question Papadopoulos specifically about Clinton’s emails if it hadn’t already spoken to Mifsud. The congressman said, “it’s still a mystery how the FBI knew to ask Papadopoulos specifically about Hillary Clinton’s emails…”

Nunes’ letter is addressed to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Central Intelligence Agency Director Gina Haspel, National Security Agency Director Paul Nakasone and FBI Director Chris Wray. It asks them to hand over all information they have on Mifsud by May 10.

 

 end
SWAMP STORIES//THE KING REPORT/AND SPECIAL THANKS TO CHRIS POWELL OF GATA FOR PROVIDING THIS TO US:

The King Report May 6, 2019 Issue 6000                                                                                     Independent View of the News

@realDonaldTrump: China has been paying Tariffs to the USA of 25% on 50 B… Dollars of High Tech, and 10% on 200 Billion Dollars of other goods… The 10% will go up to 25% on Friday325 B… Dollars of additional goods sent to us by China remain untaxed, but will be shortly, at a rate of 25%… The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate [tech transfer]. No!

Chinese banks quietly lower limit on US dollar cash withdrawals [Fear of accelerating $ flight]

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3008795/chinese-banks-quietly-lower-daily-limit-foreign-currency

Amidror: Iran Behind the Gaza Escalation [On Friday, over 600 rockets were launched from Gaza into Israel.]https://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Amidror-Iran-behind-the-Gaza-escalation-588796

Hamas, Islamic Jihad: ‘We’re Close to Open War with Israel’

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Hamas-Islamic-Jihad-Were-close-to-open-war-with-Israel-588867

FBI ‘lost Notes’ From August 2015 Meeting with IC Inspector General Regarding Hillary Clinton’s Private Server – according to new FBI docs released Friday

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/05/how-convenient-fbi-lost-notes-from-august-2015-meeting-with-ic-inspector-general-regarding-hillary-clintons-private-server/

 

Nunes Drops BOMB and Reveals State Dept. Met with Joseph Mifsud in 2017 in Washington DC!

It means Robert Mueller ABSOLUTELY LIED in his final report on the Trump-Russia investigation.

    Mueller alleged in the report that Joseph Misfud was a Russian operative.  This was a lie.  Misfud worked with Western operatives.  He is suspected of being an FBI trainer and asset… 

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/05/huge-mueller-lied-nunes-drops-bomb-and-reveals-state-dept-met-with-joseph-mifsud-in-2017-in-washington-dc-video/

Nunes casts doubt on Mueller’s findings about Papadopoulos tipster’s Moscow links

It has long been suggested that Mifsud was connected to Russian intelligence. But Nunes… questions that assumption, saying Mueller’s report “omits any mention of a wide range of contacts Mifsud had with Western political institutions and individuals.”…

    Nunes also is seeking information about the FBI’s contacts with Mifsud – asking how the bureau knew to question Papadopoulos specifically about Clinton’s emails if it hadn’t already spoken to Mifsud

      “If Mifsud has extensive, suspicious contacts among Russian officials as portrayed in the special counsel’s report, then an incredibly wide range of Western institutions and individuals may have been compromised by him, including our own State Department,” Nunes wrote…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nunes-casts-doubt-on-muellers-findings-about-papadopoulos-tipsters-moscow-links

@seanmdav: Mueller and his close friend James Comey have a lot of explaining to do about Joseph Mifsud and who he was actually working for at the time he approached George Papadopoulos claiming to have dirt on Hillary.

Russiagate, mystery professor Joseph Mifsud speaks out: “Dirt on Hillary Clinton? Nonsense”

“… The only foundation I am member of? The Clinton Foundation…my thinking is left-leaning… https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2017/11/01/news/russiagate_mystery_professor_joseph_mifsud_speaks_out_dirt_on_hillary_clinton_nonsense_-179948962/?refresh_ce

@MichaelRCaputo: In late May 2016 a Russian named “Henry” contacted me offering dirt on Hillary Clinton. Here’s a US federal court document that proves he was an FBI informant for 17 years. Somehow Mueller skipped right over this – wonder why?

FBI Official’s Testimony Raises New Questions about Surveillance of Trump Campaign

The interview transcript reveals that the FBI’s use of Confidential Human Sources and other counterintelligence assets was far more extensive than has previously been acknowledged

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/05/fbi-official-testimony-surveillance-trump-campaign/

For Fear of William Barr – WSJ’s Kim Strassel

The attorney general gets attacked because his probe endangers many powerful people

    Do not underestimate how many powerful people in Washington have something to lose from Mr. Barr’s probe. … lawsuits, formal disciplinary actions, lost jobs, even criminal prosecution…

https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-fear-of-william-barr-11556837637?shareToken=st5032b5932ed5483087fc925455bffe97

This stings!’ How Obama saw Trump’s victory as a ‘personal insult,’…blamed Hillary for the loss because of her ‘scripted, soulless campaign’ – seeing it as a ‘personal insult’ that she lost…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6985985/Obama-blamed-Hillary-2016-loss-scripted-soulless-campaign.html

@paulsperry_: NYT book says Obama was furious Trump won, felt betrayed by voters and feared his precious legacy would be overturned. Obama’s bitterness explains why suddenly after the election the government’s gears went into overdrive against Russia — and Trump & his team.

Ex-FBI agent, current CNN analyst @JamesAGagliano on NYT story about FBI sending agent to spy on Papadopoulos: Must caveat with — would have had to have been a “CERTIFIED” FBI Undercover Agent (UCA), who had passed the UCA course, been pre-screened (psychologicals) and been handpicked by FBIHQ for a high-profile overseas assignment. Also, Legat London would’ve assuredly coordinated w/MI5… If indeed was FBI UCO, for this type of high-profile, grave consequences, foreign area Op into presidential campaign, w/o UCA — IG will flame this…

    MAYBE this is why @nytimes helped get out in front of the news cycle that will roil following IG report that may be released this month or next.  Curious, as others have opined, that this “nugget” about *Turk* suddenly revealed in the Times. Almost TOO obvious a peremptory leak.

Ex-Clinton operative & pollster Mark Penn: Trump is not a dictator, Nadler is. Our political system is being weaponized against itself – Nadler, representing a safe district without any serious challenge, is acting like someone anointed him king, and that all executive branch officials should bow down and kowtow to his ever-increasing demands.

   Legislative oversight is not a specifically enumerated power in the Constitution — it’s a limited power implied from the “necessary and proper” clause and subject to privileges, separation of powers, and the need for a legitimate legislative purpose. It’s not an open-ended power but bounded by the checks and balances of our constitution… https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/mark-penn-trump-nadler-dictator-barr-house-hearing

CNN poll: 69% think Congress ought to investigate the origins of the Justice Department’s inquiry into Russian interference in the 2016 election, including 76% of Democrats, 69% of independents and 62% of Republicans… https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/01/politics/cnn-poll-mueller-report-trump-approval/index.html

Biden brags about his time in ‘the hood’ [The MSM spiked this story for obvious reasons.]

Joe Biden Wednesday bragged about time he spent in the “hood,” a place where he said he found “women of color” he helped train to do computer coding…

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/biden-brags-about-his-time-in-the-hood

Everyone is in favor of free speech. Hardly a day passes without its being extolled, but some people’s idea of it is that they are free to say what they like, but if anyone else says anything back, that is an outrage.”  — Churchill

John Williams Warns: “Recession Already In Place, Watch Out!”

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

You might be wondering why the Trump Administration is calling for rate cuts and money printing with all the good news about the economy.

Economist John Williams of ShadowStats.com knows why and contends,

We have a recession in place. It’s just a matter of playing out in some of these other funny numbers. The reality is on the downside, where you have mixed pressures right now. People who are really concerned about the economy right now, and that includes President Trump looking at re-election, he’s been arguing that the Fed should lower rates, and I am with him. The Fed created this circumstance. They are pushing for the economy on the upside because they want to continue to keep raising rates. Banks make more money with higher rates, and they are still trying to liquidate the problems they created when they bailed out the banking system back in 2008.”

Williams strips out all the financial gimmicks in his work that make things look better than they really are to give a true picture of the real financial health. Take for example the recent reportedly good news of the trade deficit narrowing. Williams says,

“What we saw was the very unusual narrowing of the deficit . . . that’s generally good news . . . but if you look at why the trade deficit was narrowing, it wasn’t that we were having new surging exports . . . instead, we were having collapsing domestic consumption.  People weren’t buying things. People were not buying goods. So, the imports were falling off, and that narrowed the deficit. That is not a healthy sign. The last time you saw something like that was the beginning of the Great Recession (2008–2009). . . . We still haven’t recovered from the Great Recession.”

If rate cuts don’t happen soon, is the economy going to tank? Williams says,

The economy is tanking, and I’ll contend it already has, although we have not seen it in the GDP reporting. . . . The ultimate thing here is you have a collapse in the dollar. I am talking about a hyperinflationary collapse. Your purchasing power becomes worthless. What you have in gold or canned goods or real estate, that will be your assets – hard assets.”

In closing, Williams says, “The underlying weakness is with the consumer…”

Until the consumer gets turned around, you are not going to get a fundamental change in the economy. The economy is going to get weaker. The Fed is going to recognize that, and they probably already do recognize that. . . . They don’t want to lower rates, but I think they are going to have to. I would look for easing by September and maybe quantitative easing (money printing) as the economy continues to deteriorate as it seems to be doing. I know the numbers are not there yet in the headlines, but watch out.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with economist John Williams, founder of ShadowStats.com.

To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here

There is even more free information and analysis in the recently redesigned Shadowstats.com. If you want more detailed information and original analysis from John Williams, you can become a subscriber by clicking here.

end

I WILL SEE YOU TUESDAY NIGHT
PROBABLY LATE IN THE EVENING.

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