MAY 7/2019

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1284.30  UP $1.80 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $14.89 DOWN 3 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold : 1284.60

 

 

 

silver:  $14.91

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 4/6

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 05/06/2019 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 05/06/2019
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:15:52
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,281.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/06/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 05/08/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 C JP MORGAN 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 4 2
905 C ADM 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 6 6
MONTH TO DATE: 164

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 6 NOTICE(S) FOR 600 OZ (0.0186 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  164 NOTICES FOR 16400 OZ  (.5101 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MAY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

150 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 750,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3127 for 15,635,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :$5941  UP 195.00

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6007 UP 170

 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 63 CONTRACTS FROM 200,109 UP TO 200,172 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S  3 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. ,LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED FOR SILVER BUT IT NOW COMMENCES FOR GOLD. TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

 0 FOR MAY, 0 FOR JUNE, 751 FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  751 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 751 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 751 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.49 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 3 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

AND NOW 17.990 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MAY:

8273 CONTRACTS (FOR 5 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 8273 CONTRACTS) OR 41.37 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1654 CONTRACTS OR 8.27 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY:  41.37 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 8.27% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          782.23    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 63 DESPITE THE  3 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 751 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS RESUMED THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES TODAY.

 

TODAY WE GAINED A FAIR SIZED: 814 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 751 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 139 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 3 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.92 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.008 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 144% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 150 NOTICE(S) FOR  750,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ AND NOW MAY:  17,990,000 OZ..
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2271 CONTRACTS, TO 442,488 WITH THE  RISE IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(AN INCREASE IN PRICE OF $2.35//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 2775 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 2775 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS, JUNE 2020  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 442,488. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5046 CONTRACTS: 2271 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 2775 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 5046 CONTRACTS OR 504,600 OZ OR 15.69TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF  $2.35….AND WITH THAT RISE, WE  HAD A GOOD GAIN IN TONNAGE OF 15.69 TONNES!!!!!!.?????????????????????????????????????????? 

AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS HAVE NOW SWITCHED TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

 

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ENTER A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI: 

“YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF  SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 30,150 CONTRACTS OR 3,015,000 OR 93.45 TONNES (5 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 6030 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 93.45 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 93.45/3550 x 100% TONNES =2.63% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     1909.35 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2271 WITH THE RISE IN PRICING ($2.35) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A  SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 2775 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 2775 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN GOOD GAIN OF 7330 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

2775 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2771 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 15.69 TONNES). ..AND THIS GOOD DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $2.35 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. HOWEVER A STRONG  PERCENTAGE OF OI WAS DUE TO THE COMMENCEMENT OF THE SPREADING OPERATION AS I HAVE OUTLINED ABOVE.

 

 

 

we had:  6 notice(s) filed upon for 600 oz of gold at the comex.

 

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $1.80  TODAY 

 

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE REACHED THE BOTTOM OF THE BARREL FOR PHYSICAL GOLD BEING SUPPLIED TO THE CROOKS.

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY:

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 63 CONTRACTS from 200,109 UP TO 200,172 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED THEIR LIQUIDATION IN SILVER BUT HAVE NOW MORPHED INTO GOLD..

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE:

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 0 FOR MAY, FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 751 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 751 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 63 CONTRACTS TO THE 751 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL GAIN OF 814 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4.070 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL AND NOW 17.990 MILLION OZ FOR MAY

 

 

RESULT: A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 751 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 19.93 POINTS OR 0.69%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 153.20 POINTS OR 0.52%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 335.61 POINTS OR 1.51%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .21%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7671 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 61.65 dollars per barrel for WTI and 70.41 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7671 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7829 TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP THREATENS TO RAISE RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 China/Chinese affairs

i)China/USA

Bannon states the 6 factors to illustrate why the USA is in an economic war with China and it is futile to compromise

( Steve Bannon)

ii)Not good:  Beijing puts his army on ‘heightened alert” over uSA warships in the South China sea. Tensions are rising!!
( zerohedge)

iii)Markets continue on a downward spiral even after Liu confirms his Washington visit on Thursday…Beijing is quite prepared for the talks to breakdown again.( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)GERMANY/USA

Pompeo snubs Merkel with a last minute cancellation.  Pompeo is adamant that Europe ceases to purchase oil from Iran

( zerohedge)

ii)Germany/Deutsche bank

Chris Whalen is one smart cookie.  In his latest commentary he discusses Deutsche bank’s problems and how its crisis can and will become our crisis.  He outlines the Bank’s huge derivative exposure

(Chris Whalen/American Conservative Blog)

 

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Israel/Gaza

ii)Russia/Syria
Final showdown is on the horizon as the Russians are ramping up airstrikes in Idlib province.
(zerohedge)
iii)IRAN/USA
Expect Iran to go on the warpath as the EU is basically non capable of facing USA sanctions
(courtesy zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

One of my favourite Bellwether indicators:  The Baltic Dry Index which is simply a measure of cost to move dry goods by ship. It just broke a 1000 down to 985. We are close to the worst levels last seen in 2008 at around 700.

 

( Scrap Register)

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Gold investors puzzled? I think you must be brain dead not to realize that gold/silver are manipulated.

(courtesy Kitco/GATA)

 

ii)Ronan Manly touches on the churning of membership from London’s gold banking cartel from which Soc Generale was the last one to leave

( Ronan Manly)

 

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//

a)Market trading: last night

Markets replunge after Lighthizer confirms the tariffs hikes will take place after China reneges on its promises

( zerohedge)

b)This morning
This morning:  Dow dumps 300 points as the opening bounces dies.  Treasury yields also tumble.
(zerohedge)

 

ii)Market data

 

ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

the Bond King Gundlach is just spoken and he warns that the bear market is just getting started and he believes that there is a better than 50% chance that the trade talks collapse

(courtesy zerohedge)

SWAMP STORIES

a)Ex CIA chief explains that the FBI did indeed conduct espionage on the Trump campaign

( zerohedge)

b)Strange: Arizona democrats after claiming that there is no border no beg Trump for help with a flood of migrants

go figure…

( zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2271 CONTRACTS.TO A LEVEL OF 442,488 WITH THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($2.35) IN YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING) 

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2775 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

0 FOR JUNE ’19: 2775 CONTRACTS , DEC; 0 CONTRACTS: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2775 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 5046 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2775 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2271 COMEX CONTRACTS.

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 5046 contracts OR 504,600 OZ OR 15.69 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of MAY and here the open interest stands at 127 contracts, having LOST 7 contracts. We had 13 notices served yesterday so we gained 6 contracts or an additional 600  oz will stand as they guys refused to morph into a London based forward as well as negating a fiat bonus

The next contract month after May is June and here the open interest FELL by 2422 contracts DOWN to 288,933.  July GAINED 2 contracts to stand at 53.  After July the next active month is August and here the OI rose by 4531 contracts up to 82,156 contracts.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 6 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  600  OZ. (0.0186 TONNES)

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 63 CONTRACTS FROM 200,209 UP TO 200,172(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S TINY OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A  3 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.  HERE WE HAVE 621 OPEN INTEREST STAND SO FAR FOR A LOSS OF ONLY 50 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 76 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO IN ESSENCE WE GAINED ANOTHER  26 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 130,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. SILVER MUST BE SCARCE AT THE COMEX. QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE. WE HAVE NOW SURPASSED THE INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING WHICH OCCURED ON APRIL 30.2019

 

 

 

THE NEXT MONTH AFTER MAY IS THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF  JUNE.  HERE THIS MONTH LOST 12 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 702. AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY, (THE SECOND LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR FOR SILVER) AND HERE THIS MONTH LOST 17 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 152,542 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 150 notice(s) filed for 750,000 OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  255,546  CONTRACTS 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  258,702  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  MAY/GOLD

MAY 7 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
10,313.881
oz
Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
6 notice(s)
 600 OZ
(0.0186TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
121 contracts
(12100 oz)
0.3763 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
164 notices
16400 OZ
.5101 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else:  zero oz

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside/ again zero amount arrived  today

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

(maybe investors are taking our advice by not storing their gold at the comex.)

this will hurt our bankers as they need to replace leased gold as all gold stored at the gold comex is unallocated.

 

Gold withdrawals;

i)  We had one withdrawal:

Out of Delaware:  10,313.881 oz

 

.

total gold withdrawals; 10,313.881 oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustments today

FOR THE MAY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 6 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 4 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (164) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (127 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (6 x 100 oz per contract) equals 28,500 OZ OR 0.8864 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of MAY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (164 x 100 oz)  + (127)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (16 x 100 oz )which equals 28,500 oz standing OR 0.8864 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of MAY.

We gained 4 contracts or an additional 400 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into a London based forwards. Queue jumping continues where we left off last month in gold and for that matter in silver.  We now have two precious metals undergoing queue jumping as the bankers scramble to obtain physical metal.

 

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 6.604 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 0.8864 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  212,322.479 oz or  6.604tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,749,406.282 oz 241.03 tonnes

 

 

FOR COMPARISON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR APRIL 2018 AND FINAL STANDING APRIL 30 2018

 

 

AT FIRST DAY NOTICE MAY 1 2018: WE HAD 1.284 TONNES OF GOLD STAND.  BY MONTH’S END:  2.27 TONNES AS WE HAD ONE QUEUE JUMPING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

IN THE LAST 31 MONTHS 114 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

MAY 7 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
214,135.812 oz
CNT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
299,295.450 oz
Brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)
150
CONTRACT(S)
(750,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
471 contracts
2,355,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3127 contracts

15,635,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 149.469 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.80% of all official comex silver. (149 million/305 million)

 

into Int. Brinks:  299,295.450  oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  299,295.450 oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of CNT: 214,135.812  oz

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 214,135.812 oz

 

we had 2 adjustment :

out of CNT:  142,558.858 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

ii) out of Brinks: 286,038.580 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Brinks

 

 

total dealer silver:  95.038 million

total dealer + customer silver:  308.329 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MAY 2019. contract month is represented by 150 contract(s) FOR  750,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3127 x 5,000 oz = 15,635,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (621) and the number of notices served upon today (150 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY/2019 contract month: 3127(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY( 621) -number of notices served upon today (150)x 5000 oz equals 17,990,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month.

We GAINED 26 contracts or an additional 130,000 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus for their efforts.

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON VS LAST YEAR:

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE APRIL 30/2018 (FOR THE MAY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH) WE HAD 24.11 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY.  BY MONTH END WE HAD HUGE QUEUE JUMPING AND THUS 36.285 MILLION OZ EVENTUALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY.

 

 

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  57,767 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 67,687 CONTRACTS..

 

..

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 67,687 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 338 million  OZ 48.3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -4.24% (MAY 7/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -2.20% to NAV (MAY 7/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.24%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.86 TRADING 12.29/DISCOUNT 4.44

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MAY 7/ WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $9.35 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.52

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD UP $4.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES//

APRIL 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.2//ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 746.69 TONNES TONNES

APRIL 25//WITH GOLD UP $.05 TODAY  (BASICALLY FLAT) NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

 

APRIL 24 WITH GOLD UP  $6.00 TODAY// TWO TRANSACTIONS: 1)A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD AND THEN II) ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

APRIL 23./WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES//

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD UP $1.75//A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT752.27 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES AT THE GLD WHICH WAS USED IN YESTERDAY’S RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 752.27 TONNES

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.03

APRIL 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $2.10 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757..85 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.45 AGAIN TODAY, THE CROOKS AGAIN RAIDED THE COOKE JAR BY 2.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.49 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40: THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 761.67 TONNES.

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD UP$1.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF PHYSICAL GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.55 TONNES

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.29 TONNES

APRIL 3:WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS: ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL: 3.81 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  764.29 TONNES

APRIL 2//WOW! WE LOST A WHOPPING 16.16 TONNES OF GOLD WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $1.80//INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.10

 

 

 

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MAY 7/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 739.64 tonnes

*IN LAST 592 TRADING DAYS: 194.33 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 492 TRADING DAYS: A NET 28.49 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN LOST INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE REACHED THE BOTTOM OF THE BARREL FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE GLD.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MAY 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 891,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

MAY 3//WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 843,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/TOTAL INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.691 MILLION OZ//

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 13 CENTS, MIRACUOUSLY THE AUTHORITIES ADD 2.869 MILLION OZ OF SILVER BACK INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.848 MILLION OZ//

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ////

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 29/ WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 26//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 23./WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A SHOCKING 2.8122 MILLION PAPER OZ WERE ADDED INTO SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15: WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 12 WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 750,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ//

April 10/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:  THE CROOKS CANNOT RAID ANY SILVER BECAUSE THERE IS NONE: INVENTORY RETS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 4/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP TWO CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/ WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ FROM THE SLV TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167

 

 

 

MAY 7/2019:

 

Inventory 316.582 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.11/ and libor 6 month duration 2.64

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .53/

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.48%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.75

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.27

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Is Turkey The Snowflake That Unleashes The European Banking System Avalance?

by Claudio Grass on ClaudioGrass.ch

Turkey’s Inevitable Recession, Surging Gold Demand,
Record Gold Highs and Contagion

Turkey’s debt problem, coupled with the plummeting lira, is arguably the most important risk factor for the nation’s economy.

To make matters worse, far from it posing a threat just to Turkey itself, it also has the potential to inflict significant damage elsewhere too, starting with key economies in the Eurozone.

At first glance, the situation in Turkey might resemble many past similar scenarios of a heavily indebted nation with a plummeting currency that descends into a severe recession and eventually gets bailed out, like Greece.

However, there is one key difference that makes Turkey’s debt problem much more complicated and potentially dangerous. Unlike Greece, Italy or other seriously debt-laden economies, it’s not just government borrowing that’s the main risk here.

Instead, it’s the unsustainable and increasingly unfinanceable corporate debt that makes Turkey a ticking time bomb and renders an IMF-rescue option problematic.

Private debt to GDP stands at a staggering 170%, while, overall, over half of the borrowing is denominated in foreign currencies. Thus, the collapse of the lira has made it extremely challenging for businesses to pay off or even service their debt, while the default risk has surged. Around $179 billion in external debt is due to mature until July 2019, which amounts to almost a quarter of the country’s annual economic output, according to JPMorgan estimates. Most of that, $146 billion, is owed by the private sector and banks in particular.

However dire the current debt predicament might seem for Turkey’s businesses and economic outlook, it is important to also consider the implications for its debtholders, especially since European banks feature prominently among them. In fact, the level of exposure in some cases is so worrying that it justifiably raises concerns that what happens in Turkey won’t just stay in Turkey.

Spain’s banking sector is one of very few in the European bloc that was so far considered not to be problematic; especially in comparison to Italian or Greek banks.

However, the exposure of Spanish banks to Turkish debt means that the currency and debt woes of Europe’s neighbor have decisively challenged these assumptions. Spain’s second-biggest bank, BBVA, controls 49.9% of Turkish bank Garanti, which has already reported a rise in non-performing loans. Spanish banks also led the lending spree to Turkish businesses over the past years, rendering them vulnerable to the spiking default risk.

Although Spanish banks were by far the greatest lenders for Turkey, French, Italian and German banks also have significant exposure to Turkish debt. This already became problematic from the onset of the Turkish woes this past summer, when investors dumped Eurozone bank shares and prices suffered significant blows. Among the worst hit were BBVA, Unicredit, and PNB Paribas. Yet still, a blow to the stock price is nothing compared to the damage that a sustained currency crisis and rising default risk can inflict to the already vulnerable European banking sector.

Key lessons

Overall, Turkey’s woes are yet another important and timely reminder of the frailty of the current monetary system and of the banking sector, as well as of the systemic weaknesses and inevitable unsustainability of a centrally planned economy and of fiat money.

After all, the lira’s value, as that of any other fiat currency, depends on the trust the people place in its issuer. Once that is lost or even shaken, no measures and no force applied by the central planners can stabilize it. We saw that play out over the last months in Turkey, with the government trying a wide variety of approaches to control the currency’s fall, to no avail. That clearly demonstrated the flimsy and fickle nature of the entire system.

As the Turkish currency collapsed, demand for gold more than doubled in the country, while gold priced in lira reached all-time highs, as is to be expected in times of crisis.

Erdogan’s public calls for citizens to sell the “gold under their pillows” and buy lira to help defend the country against the “economic attacks” from the outside were clearly ignored. Consumers flocked to the precious metal in response to the deteriorating fiat currency and gold imports to Turkey increased eightfold last December, while the Turkish central bank itself also dramatically increased its official reserves over the last two years.

As the country now joins the long list of nations that came to regret reckless interventionism and aggressive monetary manipulation, it also sends a strong message to those investors who are wise enough to heed it. In order to effectively prepare for the upcoming economic slowdown and all that it will bring, one needs to hedge against these inherent risks that are deeply embedded in our current system.

While inflation, currency depreciations, volatile stock markets or a rise in toxic debt might be all we’ll see during the next downturn, nobody can be sure what the extent of the damage will be and whether it would be contained before threatening the banking system at large. Especially in Europe, the outlook is rather grim and the odds of a timely rescue are not favorable. As the central bank is already overstretched, after so many years of QE and negative interest rates, it is likely to lack the tools to fight the next recession and to limit its impact.

Turkey’s story can arguably be seen as a warning and as a cautionary tale. While governments and central banks will dismiss it, individual investors should not. Separating the signal from the noise has always been crucial in forming solid strategies and in planning for the future.

At this stage, when the signs of a widespread economic slowdown can already be seen on the horizon, the necessity of a physical precious metals position is imperative for any responsible investor who wishes to preserve their wealth.

Avoid ‘.Com Gold’ – 7 Real Risks to Your Gold Ownership

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 
end

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

Gold investors puzzled? I think you must be brain dead not to realize that gold/silver are manipulated.

(courtesy Kitco/GATA)

 



iii) Other Physical stories

-END-

Gold trading/

 

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7671/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7829   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 19.93 POINTS OR 0.69%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 153.20 POINTS OR 0.52%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 335.61 POINTS OR 1.51%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED RED 

 

 

USA dollar index RISES TO 97.55/Euro FALLS TO 1.1194

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.62/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 61.65 and Brent: 70.41

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO 02%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.58% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.96%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.60: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.34

3k Gold at $1280.30 silver at: 14.82   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 16/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.09

3m oil into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and 70 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.62 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0195 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1414 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.02%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.47% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.89%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.1396..they are toast

Futures Resume Slide As Traders Brace For Trade War Impact

 

There was renewed turbulence in global markets overnight, which however eased modestly following Monday’s rollercoaster, after the late Tuesday shock confirmation by USTR Lighthizer that the US would indeed hike tariffs at midnight on Friday even as China’s top trade negotiator Liu He confirmed he was headed to the US for what may prove to be a futile trip. And, like yesterday, stocks in Europe and Asia dropped alongside U.S. equity-index futures as a slew of trade headlines continued to roil traders around the globe. The dollar edged higher and Treasury yields were steady, while Turkey’s lira plunged as concerns about its politics erupted again.

 

“Reality is setting in that they are not going to get the master deal, the grand deal that they are hoping for and there’s a lot of work to be done,” Oliver Pursche, Bruderman Asset Management’s chief market strategist, told Bloomberg TV. “Our best guess is that these tariffs will be implemented on Friday, but will then be reversed relatively quickly.’’

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index fell to a five-week low as declines for banks and oil producers outweighed gains for real-estate companies; the index slumped to session lows just after 7am ET, falling as much as 0.6% with energy shares among the worst performing industry groups as crude extended losses. The SXEP was down 1.2%, tracking oil lower as Saudi Arabia was reported to supply extra crude to its customers in Asia. Banks also dragged Stoxx 600 lower, with SX7P down for a 2nd day. As a result of the recent selling in Europe, the Stoxx 600 upward channel has now been broken, and more downside is to be expected.

 

Futures on the S&P 500 index retreated even as China confirmed its vice premier would attend trade talks in Washington this week; the report sparked a brief 15 point spike earlier in the session which however was quickly faded.

 

To be sure, the drop could be worse, but many investors continue to hope that the tariff threats are a negotiating tactic, especially as Beijing confirmed its top negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He, would go to Washington on Thursday and Friday as planned.

“We expect the situation to de-escalate as the issue seems solvable and Liu He, China’s lead negotiator, is continuing with his plans to travel to Washington D.C. for talks this week,” said Oxford Economics economist Louis Kuijs. “Nonetheless, the probability of renewed escalation of the U.S.-China trade war has risen substantially, which would be a drag on their respective economies, especially on China.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks edged lower, led by industrial and technology firms, after slumping on trade tensions Monday. MSCI’s broadest global and Asian indexes had largely held their ground overnight, though Japan’s Nikkei did take a delayed 1.5 percent hit, having been closed for over a week. Markets in the region were mixed, with China advancing and Japan and South Korea retreating. The Topix fell 1.1% as Japanese traders returned from a long holiday break. Murata Manufacturing Co. and Komatsu Ltd. were among the biggest drags. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7%, driven by Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Co. and Shanghai International Airport Co. The S&P BSE Sensex Index fluctuated, with a rally in Housing Development Finance Co. countering Reliance Industries Ltd.’s decline. Read more about stocks in Japan here, China here and India here. Asia Picks Up the Pieces After Trade Sell-off: Taking Stock

In FX, the euro erased an advance after German factory orders rebounded less than economists’ forecasts in March; bonds in the region rose.

 

Earlier, Australia’s dollar jumped and government bonds fell after the central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 1.50% for the 30th consecutive meeting. RBA Governor Philip Lowe says in statement Tuesday that “The Board judged that it was appropriate to hold the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting. In doing so, it recognized that there was still spare capacity in the economy and that a further improvement in the labor market was likely to be needed for inflation to be consistent with the target. Given this assessment, the Board will be paying close attention to developments in the labor market at its upcoming meetings.” According to the RBA , falling property prices — Sydney down 14.5% from 2017 peak — are prompting households to rein in spending as consumption accounts for nearly 60% of GDP. Reflecting that, economic growth slowed to an annualized 1% in the second half of last year from almost 4% in the first six months.

Also overnight, the Swedish krona was caught in choppy trade following contrasting headlines from the minutes of a Riksbank review.

Over in China, the yuan had recouped most of its early losses against the dollar by the end of trading there as investors largely digested the situation. The offshore yuan clawed as high as 6.7628 per dollar at one point, trimming the intraday loss to 6 pips from the previous late night close of 6.7622.

However, the highlight of the overnight session was once again the Turkish lira, which was back under heavy fire after the country’s elections board ruled to scrap and re-run Istanbul elections. It slid 1.5% past the 6.15 per dollar which also sent government bonds tumbling.

“The rule of law is under scrutiny by markets,” UniCredit EM FX strategist Kiran Kowshik said. “It is also clear that Turkish reserves are depleted and there are questions about whether Turkey can weather its immediate challenges without an external anchor like the IMF.”

In overnight central bank news, Fed’s Kaplan (Non-Voter. Dove) said he would currently stand pat and doesn’t see a need to lower rates to address inflation, while he added that he doesn’t have a bias for the direction of the next rate move. Furthermore, Kaplan said he has been trying to flag issue of risky corporate debt which could be a burden on the economy in a downturn and is concerned global growth is decelerating.

In the commodity market, oil futures traded steady to higher on Tuesday as U.S. sanctions on crude exporters Iran and Venezuela kept supply concerns alive, while the Trump administration dispatched warships to the Middle East in a warning to Iran.

Today we get the JOLTS and consumer credit data, while Allergan, Emerson Electric, Ferrari, Sprint, and Lyft are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2,922.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 385.68
  • MXAP down 0.1% to 160.85
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 531.93
  • Nikkei down 1.5% to 21,923.72
  • Topix down 1.1% to 1,599.84
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 29,363.02
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 2,926.39
  • Sensex down 0.04% to 38,583.72
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,295.68
  • Kospi down 0.9% to 2,176.99
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.7 bps to -0.011%
  • Euro up 0.01% to $1.1200
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to 2.208%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.3 bps to 0.961%
  • Brent futures down 0.9% to $70.57/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,281.23
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.53

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • China’s top trade negotiator Liu He will visit the U.S. this week for trade talks, in a sign its leadership is battling to keep negotiations on track after President Donald Trump ratcheted up pressure with plans to raise tariffs on Chinese goods Friday
  • The Federal Reserve is further amplifying its warnings about the perils of risky corporate debt, saying in a Monday report that the market grew 20 percent last year and that lending standards continue to slip.
  • German factory orders rose for the first time in three months in March, though the increase was smaller than economists forecast and marks only a partial recovery from a recent slump.
  • President Donald Trump’s top trade negotiator said the U.S. plans to raise tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday, accusing Beijing of backpedaling on commitments it made during negotiations
  • Chinese stocks saw muted gains after Monday’s $487 billion rout. The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.3 percent at the midday break after losing 5.6 percent Monday
  • U.S. interest rates are “in the right place” and don’t need to be lowered, although weak inflation merits close watching, according to Robert Kaplan, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
  • Turkey ordered a re-run of mayoral elections in Istanbul, overturning a rare defeat for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and threatening long-term damage to the country’s democracy and economy
  • Iran signaled Monday that it may scale back some commitments made as part of the 2015 nuclear deal in response to tightening U.S. sanctions, a move that could escalate tensions after the Trump administration deployed an aircraft carrier to the Gulf
  • Iron ore rallied after Brazilian mining giant Vale SA’s operations were hit by fresh disruption, with a local court reversing a decision that had allowed operations at a key mine to resume and the company scaling back expectations for 2019 sales volumes
  • Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin refused to release President Donald Trump’s personal and business tax returns, setting up what could become one of the biggest legal showdowns between the president and a Congress seeking to investigate him.

Asian equities traded mixed as sentiment remained at the whim of the ongoing US-China trade uncertainty with Nikkei 225 (-1.5%) and KOSPI (-0.9%) the underperformers on return from holiday closures as they got their first opportunity to react to US President Trump’s tariff threat. Nonetheless, there was no lack of success stories in Japan with Sony among the biggest gainers after having waited through a 10-day closure to finally benefit from a return to profit in Q4 and with SoftBank boosted as it considers an IPO for its USD 100bln Vision Fund. ASX 200 (+0.2%) was positive with the index led by strength in mining names and after mostly encouraging Trade Balance and Retail Sales data, while some participants were also hopeful for a rate cut by the RBA although this failed to materialize and subsequently saw the index give back some of the gains. Hang Seng (+0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.7%) nursed some of the prior day’s sell-off in which the mainland bourse had dropped nearly 6% due to the heightened trade tensions. Furthermore, the recovery also followed a substantial rebound on Wall St after reports that the China delegation will still travel to Washington D.C. provided a glimmer of hope, although this was later clouded after-hours as US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Trade Representative Lighthizer confirmed a deterioration in negotiations and that tariffs will be increased if there is no agreement by Friday. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher as the risk-averse tone in Tokyo spurred demand government bonds and with the BoJ also present in the market for JPY 940bln of JGBs.

Top Asian News

  • Lira Bears Out in Force as Vote Re-Run Ramps Up Political Risk; Credit Agricole Sees Lira Weakness Leading to Tighter Policy
  • China Stocks See Muted Gains From Monday’s $487 Billion Rout
  • Saudi Aramco Said to Give Extra Oil to Crude-Hungry Asian Buyers
  • Malaysia Joins Asia Easing Cycle With Quarter-Point Rate Cut

Major European indices are broadly in the red, and after drifted lower as the day has advanced [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%] in spite of risk sentiment receiving a boost prior to the cash open when China announced that Vice Premier Liu He is to attend trade talks in the US on the 9th & 10th of May. The FTSE 100 (-0.2%) is mildly lagging its peers as UK markets return from a bank holiday, and as such are reacting to the US-China trade updates; although, downside in the index is limited by the likes of Vodafone (+1.4%) and AstraZeneca (+1.5%) in the green after making a deal with Telefonica Deutschland (+2.2%) and announcing that their Phase 3 Calquence study achieved its primary endpoints respectively. Sectors are similarly mixed with energy names down in tandem with the oil complex, and notably the auto sector is once again in the red dragged down by heavyweight BMW (-1.0%) post-earnings. Following the Co. posted Q1 EBIT significantly lower than the prior levels and that the Co. have set aside EUR 1.4bln for anti-trust provisions after the Co. were previously warned of a significant charge resulting from an EU probe into collusion over delaying the implementation of cleaner-emissions cars. Other notable movers this morning include, AB Inbev (-0.1%) who at first fell around 1% at the open due to a slight miss on Q1 revenues and stating that short term dividend growth will be impacted deleveraging commitments. However, Co’s shares subsequently retraced much of this downside after stating that they are considering the IPO of their Asia-Pacific unit in Hong Kong, which could reportedly value the business at up to USD 40-70bln. In contrast, Infineon (-0.3%) initially moved higher by around 1.3% but gave up much of this surge as the Co. initially posted a beat on Q2 revenues but did emphasise that the market environment remains competitive.

Top European News

  • UniCredit Is Preparing for Possible Exit From FinecoBank
  • Vodafone Seeks EU Nod for German Deal With Telefonica Pledge
  • German Factory Orders Rebound Less Than Forecast After Slump
  • Niel Agrees to $3 Billion of Phone Tower Sales to Cellnex

In FX, Aud/Usd is firmly back above 0.7000, albeit off overnight recovery highs circa 0.7050, while Aud/Nzd remains nearer the top of its range (1.0640+) having reclaimed 1.0600 status from a low of 1.0575 ahead of the eagerly awaited RBA policy meeting. In sum, the OCR was maintained at 1.5% and the accompanying statement struck a less dovish tone than most were anticipating as rate expectations were finely balanced between 51% for on hold and the remainder predicting a 25 bp ease. However, the Bank reiterated that strength in the labour market outweighed weakness in wages and inflation, supporting the decision to stand pat again and monitor data/economic developments (domestic and external). Conversely, Nzd/Usd has drifted back down towards 0.6600 as the spotlight switches to the RBNZ amidst even greater expectations that an ease is in the offing – see the Ransquawk headline feed for a more detailed preview.

  • SEK/NOK – The next best performing G10 currencies as the Swedish Krona rebounds from recent lows vs the Euro through 10.7000 on a broad stabilisation in risk sentiment and despite Riksbank minutes reaffirming the more dovish shift at the last policy meeting. Similarly, the Nok has pared losses to trade back above 9.7500 against the Eur and the backdrop of steadier oil prices.
  • EM – The Cnh is consolidating off Monday’s lows around 6.7750 vs 6.8000+ in wake of reports that China’s Vice Premier Lui will attend the next round of trade talks in Washington and the perception if not reality that his presence improves the chances that an agreement will be reached in time to avoid the 25% tariffs on a further Usd200 bn goods threatened by US President Trump over the weekend. However, this has not done much to lift the gloom for the Try as the Istanbul rerun is not due until June 23 and as such the uncertain domestic political scene will remain for another 1 1/2 months at least. The Lira has consolidated off a 6.2000 base vs the Dollar, but Turkish assets are still underperforming and looking vulnerable.
  • GBP/EUR/JPY/CAD – All relatively flat vs. the buck as news-flow somewhat slowed in EU trade, albeit Brexit remains in the background with Labour leader Corbyn not partaking to today’s cross-party talks, whilst PM May is speculated to receive her departure date before the 1922 committee. Sky News’ Rigby did however note that prospects have increased for a cross-party deal, citing a Cabinet source. Cable largely was unreactive to a technical speech by Cunliffe on post-Brexit financial stability. GBP/USD remains below the 1.3100 handle (having fallen below its 50 DMA around the figure), with the next technical at its 100 HMA at 1.3077. Elsewhere, the single currency remains just around the 1.1200 level, with the European Commission Spring Forecast pushed back to around 11:30BST due to an earlier speech by the Commission’s President. The focus of the release will be Italy as press reported that the EC may warn of widening Italian budget deficit to 2.6% of GDP, above the government’s forecast of 2.4%. Moving on, the Loonie straddles just below 1.3500 vs. the Greenback ahead of Ivey PMIs later. Elsewhere, JPY remains sub-111 vs. the Buck, holding onto most of its post-Trump risk premia ahead of further trade talks this week with Vice Premier Liu He now attending, signalling high-level talks. USD/JPY remains flat around 110.50 with around 1.3bln in option expiries around 110.00-40.

In commodities, Brent (-0.6%) and WTI (-0.4%) prices are somewhat subdued, but have been relatively steady and are currently trading within a very narrow USD 1/bbl range this morning. News flow for the complex has been relatively light, with prices largely moving in-line with the US-China driven sentiment. However, there were reports that Israel has provided the White House with intelligence regarding a potential Iranian plot to target US interest in the Gulf. Looking ahead, we have the API weekly inventory report with expectations for crude inventories to increase by 2.5mln barrels; additionally, the EIA are releasing their Short Term Energy Outlook, where they previously forecast that the US crude oil production is to average 12.4mln BPD in 2019 and 13.1mln BOD in 2020. For reference, EIA weekly crude production stood at 12.3mln BPD in last week’s release. Gold (U/C) prices are largely unchanged on the day, with the safe haven selling off slightly following China stating that Vice Premier Liu He is to attend trade talks in the US. With the yellow metal still holding firm above the USD 1280/oz level, currently around USD 1281/oz. Elsewhere, Vale state that the Brucutu mining complex has stopped operations due to a court decision; follows on from a prior lower court decision which had stated that mining activities could resume.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7,350, prior 7,087
  • 3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $16.0b, prior $15.2b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Since we last spoke, I’ve lugged about 200 boxes up and down stairs, spend most waking hours unpacking them or stopping three young children and a dog from doing so, had 4 water leaks (including one sewage leak into our new larder cupboard and thus ruining it and the food of course!), co-habited daily with about 50 builders/decorators/plasterers/plumbers/electricians/landscapers, etc., which wasn’t part of the plan, watched four new episodes of Game Of Thrones (anyone see the Starbucks cup accidentally left in a scene in this week’s?), have thrown a cushion at Lionel Messi on the TV, cursed Man City, had lots of medicinal de-stressing glasses of wine, and for the first time on holidays in my career have hardly looked at financial markets. Yesterday was a bank holiday in the UK and little Maisie was really upset as there was no builders in the house for the first day since moving in two weeks ago. She was really worried about them and was a bit tearful when we said that they wouldn’t always be living with us. Well I don’t think they will be always living here but a glance at the new house suggests that it might be a while yet!

So back at work and after going on holiday before Easter believing that the US/China trade deal was more a matter of when not if, clearly since Sunday all this has changed. Inevitably market action yesterday was dominated by the dramatic trade headlines, initially sparked by President Trump’s Sunday tweet threatening an escalation in tariffs against China. Equity markets sold off across the world, though sentiment improved throughout the US session, helping stocks close off their lows. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and DOW had opened -1.61%, -1.78%, and -2.23% lower, respectively, but ultimately rallied to end the session only -0.44%, -0.50%, and -0.25% lower. That partially reflected improving news flow that suggested trade talks will continue this week with the Chinese delegation still flying to Washington, as opposed to being cancelled as initially feared.

The real carnage was in Asia yesterday, where the Shanghai Composite fell -5.58% for its worst day since February 2016. This morning it is recouping a small amount of those declines (+0.32%). The Hang Seng is also up +0.16% a touch after falling -2.90% yesterday while the Nikkei (-1.18%) and Kospi (-1.08%) are both down as they have re-opened after holidays. China’s onshore yuan is down -0.18% this morning to 6.7781. In terms of data releases, Japan’s final April manufacturing PMI came in at 50.2 vs. a preliminary reading of 49.5 and last month’s 49.2

Overnight trade headlines have continued to pour in with the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin saying that China sent through a new draft of an agreement over the weekend that included them pulling back on language in the text on a number of issues, which had the “potential to change the deal very dramatically.” He added that “we are not willing to go back on documents that have been negotiated in the past.” USTR Robert Lighthizer though said last night that the trade talks will continue and a Chinese delegation will visit Washington on Thursday and Friday. He also confirmed that the tariff hike will proceed this Friday, though he did not say if or when the additional tranche would be applied. He also said, in a confirmation of earlier unconfirmed reports, that President Trump announced the tariffs in response to the Chinese team’s apparent backtracking on prior commitments, specifically regarding their promise to change Chinese law as part of the trade deal in order to better protect foreign investors and intellectual property holders. On the other side, China’s Global Times reported in its editorial today that China is “well prepared for other potential outcomes” of its trade talks with the US, “including a temporary breakdown in talks,” while adding that even if the negotiations break down and Washington comprehensively raises tariffs, that does not mean the door to talks is closed.

The situation is still fluid, but DB’s economists have outlined their views on the likely course of events and possible macro and market implications in a series of notes published yesterday. First, our China team outlined their views here . They think China is unlikely to back down, as recent experience suggests: 1) the cost of the tariffs is borne by US consumers, 2) China’s economy has stabilised and therefore lowers the risks of a harsher impact, and 3) previously, the US administration has responded to market sell-offs by moderating their tone. The rest of our Asia macro team outlined the associated implications for the rest of the region here . If the trade war escalates, they expect currencies across the region to weaken versus the dollar. Lastly, our US economics team published their views here . They think that, on balance, tariffs could certainly be raised this week as threatened, but they are unlikely to be followed by further major escalation. They note that the impact of a broader row would have significant implications, however.

Back to yesterday and the sectors most exposed to China led losses in developed markets, with US semiconductor stocks down -1.72% and indices of materials firms down -1.38% and -1.19% in the US and Europe. Volatility surged, with the VIX index rising as much as +5.93pts, which would’ve been its biggest spike since December, but it ultimately retraced to end only +2.44pts higher at a fairly contained level of 15.31pts.

Safe havens rallied, with treasury and bund yields falling -2.9bps and -1.9bps. Those moves might have been somewhat cushioned by healthy economic data in Europe, where the composite PMI for April was revised up 0.2pts to 51.5. The improvement was driven by upgrades in Germany and France, as Spain and Italy saw marked deterioration. The FTSE MIB lagged, falling -1.63%, while the IBEX fell -0.84%, in line with the STOXX 600, which fell -0.88%. Yields on BTPs rose +1.8bps while the other major bond markets in Europe all rallied. The Turkish lira fell -1.93% after Turkey’s national election commission ordered a re-run of mayoral elections in Istanbul, overturning a rare defeat for President Erdogan.

After the Fed drove market action last week, there was some attention paid to Philadelphia Fed President Harker’s speech yesterday, but he ended up reiterating Powell’s prior comments in a pretty uneventful way. He said that the softer inflation appears transitory and that he continues to envision one more hike this year, at most. Elsewhere, the Fed’s Kaplan (non-voter) said overnight that the US interest rates are “in the right place” and don’t need to be lowered, although weak inflation merits close watching. On revival of trade tensions he said that the US-China trade war isn’t having a major impact on the US economic growth, though he warned that businesses are being forced to reconsider supply chain and logistics operations with some of them seeking alternative arrangements in South-East Asia and Mexico instead.

As mentioned above, we had final European services and composite PMIs yesterday, which were a shade better than expected. The Euro Area composite print was revised up +0.2pts to 51.5 while the services reading was up +0.3pts to 52.8. Germany’s and France’s composite readings were up +0.1pts each to 52.2 and 50.1, respectively. Italy’s and Spain’s composite prints came in below expectations, however, at 49.5 and 52.9, down -2.0pts and -2.5pts, respectively, from March. That tips Italy’s reading back into contractionary territory for the fifth time in the last seven months.

Other data yesterday included the Euro Area’s Sentix investor confidence survey, which rose to 5.3 from -0.3. That’s the first positive reading since November. Retail sales were also flat on the month in March, versus expectations for a -0.1% mom decline, and the prior month was revised +0.1pp higher. In the US, there were no major data releases, but the Fed did release its Senior Loan Officer Survey, which showed easing credit standards for mortgage loans as well as corporate and industrial loans. Credit card standards tightened a bit, but on net it was a positive report.

Turning to a recap of last week and rest of the week ahead now given that the UK was out yesterday. The highlight on Friday was the US jobs report, which showed yet another example of robust growth but tepid inflation pressure. Bond yields fell and equity markets rallied, with most US indexes returning to near their levels of Wednesday afternoon before the Fed-inspired swoon. On the week, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ finished +0.20% and +0.22% higher (+0.96% and +1.58% Friday), while the DOW fell -0.14% (+0.75% Friday) on some poor earnings reports. Cyclical sectors led gains, with the NYFANG index up +2.30% (+1.88% Friday) and bank stocks rallying +1.41% (+0.68% Friday). In Europe, the STOXX 600 retreated -0.16% on the week (+0.39% Friday) and the DAX outperformed, up +0.79% (+0.55% Friday). Treasuries ultimately ended up +2.7bps (-1.6bps Friday) while bunds rose +4.7bps (-0.5bps Friday). Despite a brief move near 16 earlier in the week, the VIX retraced to return to sub-13 levels, ending the week +0.2pts (-1.5pts Friday). The dollar retreated -0.54% (-0.37% Friday) as the euro strengthened +0.48% (+0.29% Friday). Emerging markets held up well, with currencies gaining a slight +0.04% (+0.50% Friday) and equities up +0.77% (+1.19% Friday).

end

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 19.93 POINTS OR 0.69%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 153.20 POINTS OR 0.52%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 335.61 POINTS OR 1.51%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .21%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7671 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 61.65 dollars per barrel for WTI and 70.41 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7671 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7829 TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP THREATENS TO RAISE RATES TO 25%

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA
end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

end

3 C CHINA/CHINESE AFFAIRS

i)China/USA

Bannon states the 6 factors to illustrate why the USA is in an economic war with China and it is futile to compromise

(courtesy Steve Bannon)

Bannon: We’re In An Economic War With China. It’s Futile To Compromise

Written by Stephen K. Bannon via the Washington Post

Stephen K. Bannon served as chief strategist for President Trump from January 2017 to August 2017.

Getting tough with China to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States was the linchpin of President Trump’s electoral march through the Rust Belt during his 2016 victory. Today, the goal of the radical cadre running China — the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) — is to be the global hegemonic power. The president’s threatened tariffs on Sunday demonstrate the severity of this threat. But as Washington and Beijing wrap up months of negotiations on a trade deal this month, whatever emerges won’t be a trade deal. It will be a temporary truce in a years-long economic and strategic war with China.

These are six “understandings” that highlight why it is futile to compromise with this regime.

The first understanding: The CCP has been waging economic war against industrial democracies ever since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, and now China has emerged as the greatest economic and national security threat the United States has ever faced.

As a framework for the current trade talks, China must agree to end forced technology transfers; intellectual property theft; cyberintrusions into business networks; currency manipulation; high tariff and nontariff barriers; and unfair subsidies to state-owned enterprises. However, if the CCP agrees to the United States’ demands in an enforceable manner, it would amount to a legal and regulatory dismantling of Chinese state capitalism.

The second understanding: The trade deal under negotiation this month is not a deal between two similar systems seeking closer ties, as its cheerleaders on Wall Street and in the media and academia argue. Rather, this is a fundamental clash between two radically different economic models.

The best U.S. result is a detailed document in which China renounces its predatory, confiscatory and mercantilist practices while providing ample means to monitor and promptly enforce the agreement.

The best CCP result is to get the tariffs lifted by filing reams of paper with false, unenforceable promises that will allow it to run out the clock on the Trump administration and hope for a less antagonistic Democratic alternative.

The third understanding: Chinese state capitalism is highly profitable for its owners — the members of the CCP. Stagnant state-owned enterprises gain a competitive edge through massive government subsidies and the cost savings won by stealing the intellectual property, technology and innovations of foreigners.

If China halted such grand theft, its enterprises would be rapidly outcompeted by the Germans, South Koreans, Japanese and especially the United States.

This fact explains much about internal Chinese politics today. President Xi Jinping faces a palace sharply divided between reformers led by chief trade negotiator Liu He and a swarm of hawks who have profited and gained power from the status quo. Within China itself, it is both gallows humor and even money as to whether Liu He will be celebrated as the next Deng Xiaoping or end up in a Chinese gulag.

The fourth understanding: Trump advisers inside and outside the White House are playing on the president’s well-earned pride in a rising stock market and a fear he might lose the Farm Belt to try to box him into a weak deal. But it is a decidedly false narrative that any failure to reach a deal will lead to a market meltdown and economic implosion.

In fact, there is no better argument for Trump keeping his bold tariffs on China than the latest report that the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.2 percent in the first quarter.

Anything less than a great deal will subject the president to relentless criticism from the Charles E. Schumer and Bernie Sanders wings of the Democratic Party. In addition, Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) might use it to get to the right of Trump on China — potentially setting up a later primary challenge. For these reasons, the president’s best political option is not to surrender, but rather, to double down on the tariffs — they have been highly effective in pressuring the Chinese without harming the U.S. economy.

The fifth understanding: Even the toughest agreement needs effective monitoring, which is difficult even with accommodating partners and perhaps impossible with China. The danger is for the president to sign what appears to be a reasonable deal and find out several years later that the United States was hoodwinked.

The United States failed to adequately monitor China’s entry into the WTO in 2001. Instead of access to a billion Chinese consumers, the United States lost more than 5 million manufacturing jobs since 2000.

The sixth understanding: The world now bears witness to a rapidly militarizing totalitarian state imprisoning millions in work camps; persecuting Uighurs, Christians and Buddhists; and spying on, and enslaving, its own population.

This is history in real time; and the world is a house divided — half slave, half free. Trump and Xi are facing off to tip the scales in one direction or the other. One way leads to the benefits of freedom, democracy and free-market capitalism. The other leads to a totalitarian and mercantilist power run on state capitalism with Chinese characteristics.

The United States’ fight is not with the Chinese people but with the CCP. The Chinese people are the first and continuous victims of this barbarous regime.

The central issues that must be faced are China’s intentions on the world stage and what those ambitions mean for U.S. prosperity. With our country at a crossroads, it is more important than ever that Trump follow his instincts and not soften his stance against the greatest existential threat ever faced by the United States.

END
Not good:  Beijing puts his army on ‘heightened alert” over uSA warships in the South China sea. Tensions are rising!!
(courtesy zerohedge)

Beijing Puts Army On “Heightened Alert” Over US Warships In South China Sea As Tensions Soar

While investors from around the globe are desperately looking for clues if the simmering trade war between the US and China is about to get rather hot at midnight on Friday, when as the US Trade Rep warned after the close, the US will hike tariffs to 25% on Chinese imports, the not so veiled geopolitical conflict between the two superpowers which has a far greater chance of mutating into a “kinetic” exchange after China expressed its “strong opposition” on Monday after two US warships sailed near disputed islands in the South China Sea.

It was the third time this year that Washington has challenged Beijing’s maritime claims in the region which China has expressly claimed as its national interest, amid escalating rivalry between the two powers.

As we reported this morning, guided-missile destroyers USS Preble and USS Chung-Hoon passed within 12 nautical miles of Gaven and Johnson reefs in the Spratly Islands on Monday, Commander Clay Doss, a spokesman for the US Navy’s Seventh Fleet, said according to Reuters. The territory is also claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan.

 

USS Preble, one of two guided-missile destroyers that took part in Monday’s freedom of navigation exercise in the South China Sea.

Quoted by the SCMP, Commander Doss said the move aimed to assert international rights to “innocent passage” and “challenge excessive maritime claims” in accordance with international law, although Beijing hardly saw the latest US intervention in Chinese backwaters as “innocent.” The incident was the third time this year that the US has conducted so-called freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, compared to five publicly reported passages last year and four in 2017.

Predictably, with Trump set to pull the plug on a trade deal between Washington and Beijing, the move drew criticism from Beijing, with the foreign ministry calling for the US to end the provocation.

“The US warships’ actions have violated China’s sovereignty and disturbed the peace, security and order of the region,” ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said. “The Chinese side is strongly dissatisfied and firmly opposed to that.”

Senior Colonel Li Huamin, a spokesman for the Southern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army, said in a message on the PLA Daily’s social media account that the PLA Navy “identified” and “warned off” the US vessels.

The command was on “heightened alert” and would “take all necessary measures” to safeguard China’s sovereignty over the South China Sea, he said.

In a clear escalation compared to recent previous diplomatic retorts, on Monday, Senior Colonel Li Huamin, a spokesman for the Southern Theatre Command of the People’s Liberation Army, said in a message on the PLA Daily’s social media account that the PLA Navy “identified” and “warned off” the US vessels.

Confirming just how infuriated Beijing was with the latest “innocent passage” by US warships, the Colonel said that the Chinese army was on “heightened alert” and would “take all necessary measures” to safeguard China’s sovereignty over the South China Sea.

Meanwhile, signaling that such provocations will not stop any time soon, US Commander Doss said the freedom of navigation operations “are not about any one country, nor are they about making political statements,” which of course, is only half a lie: it is indeed about two countries, the US and China, however such operations are all about making a political statement.

Luckily, so far these statements have not resulted in any major provocative escalations, but if and when the Chinese feel they have nothing more to gain by remaining cordial with the Trump administrations, expect something to break, especially since as Admiral Phil Davidson, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, suggested in February, naval operations by the US and its allies like Britain would become more frequent.

A similar patrol in September, also near Gavin and Johnson reefs, resulted in a near collision when a US destroyer was forced to make a last-minute manoeuvre to avoid hitting a Chinese warship. Next time when a US and Chinese warship go head to head, it is almost certain that there will be no last-minute evasive maneuver.

END

Markets continue on a downward spiral even after Liu confirms his Washington visit on Thursday…Beijing is quite prepared for the talks to breakdown again.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Market Turmoil Continues After Liu Confirms Washington Visit; Beijing “Prepared For Talks Breakdown”

Continuing the pattern of China countering belligerent American trade rhetoric with attempts to calm its domestic market, turmoil across global markets continued Tuesday even after Beijing confirmed that Vice Premier Liu He would travel to Washington for two days this week to lead trade talks, in what appeared to be an attempt to calm markets.

Liu

Just as investors were starting to think that they had dodged a bullet Monday evening after markets had pared most of their declines from overnight, Robert Lighthizer and Steven Mnuchin sent global stocks and the yuan into a tailspin after they affirmed that Washington would impose additional tariffs on Beijing Friday, claiming that China had reneged on its commitments, and – furthermore – that the market’s reaction wouldn’t be a factor in the talks. 

At the time, we noted what appeared to be a new American strategy to maximize the damage from the US’s jawboning, while mitigating the blowback.

zerohedge@zerohedge

White House new trading strategy: deny trade deal is dead during US hours sending US stocks higher, confirm no deal ahead of China open crashing Shanghai Composite

And like clockwork, as Chinese equities and the yuan tumbled on Tuesday after recording their largest daily declines in three years the day before, China’s Commerce Ministry announced that Vice Premier Liu He would travel to Washington for two days for the next round of talks, despite the Trump Administration’s threats. On Monday, the Commerce Ministry said Beijing would still send a delegation, but it was unclear whether Liu would join.

But even after the Liu news broke, US stock futures, which had briefly trimmed their losses overnight, dumped once again.

Dow

Marking a stark departure from Beijing’s more aggressive trade rhetoric, in an editorial in the Global Times, an English-language Communist Party mouthpiece, Beijing adopted a surprisingly cautious tone, advising investors to ‘remain calm’ in the face of the trade-war turbulence, and insisting that the Chinese people should support Beijing’s strategy – whatever that happens to be – and that Washington was simply anxious for an early deal, so even if talks did fail, the outcome would be ‘controllable’.

The Op-Ed also said that China is “well-prepared for other potential outcomes” of its trade talks with the U.S., “including a temporary breakdown in talks,” adding the door won’t be closed to trade talks even if the U.S. imposes fresh tariffs this week.

Pre-empting any social panic, the Op-ed also said that the impact on China will be controllable, “even if talks fail”, while cautioning that upgrading and maintaining a long-term trade war not option for Washington as U.S. side also wants a deal and that hasn’t changed.

In the most surprising appeal to public support for a worst case scenario, the Global Times said China should have “courage and endurance” to bear breakdown in talks, create good condition for government, safeguard China’s “core interests.”

Finally, the widely read article said taht China is not a market “U.S. can easily give up” (perhaps Beijing was simply projecting as we showed yesterday), adding that trade war is “lose-lose process”, which is certainly true… but China certainly has more to lose than the US over the long run:

Meanwhile, offering another example of its conciliatory rhetoric, Beijing warned that ‘mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit’ should be the premise of the talks.

People’s Daily, China

@PDChina

Mutual respect, equality, and mutual benefit are the premise and basis for reaching an agreement, China’s Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday at a regular press conference, adding that tariffs will not solve any problem.

Looking ahead, the editor of the Global Times, a popular conduit for government opinions, warned that Thursday could be a decisive day for trade negotiations.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT

Trump threatens to raise tariffs on Friday, rather than immediately. The US side still has the willingness to reach a deal. Chinese delegation demonstrates their will by postponing the US trip. Thursday will be decisive moment of a contest between China’s and US’ determination.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY/USA

Pompeo snubs Merkel with a last minute cancellation.  Pompeo is adamant that Europe ceases to purchase oil from Iran

(courtesy zerohedge)

Pompeo Snubs Merkel With Last-Minute Cancellation

As tensions with Iran reach a boiling point and Washington looks ready to walk away from trade talks with China, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo apparently wanted to make sure the US’s European ‘allies’ know their place.

Pompeo

According to Bloomberg, Pompeo scrapped plans for a Tuesday meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, citing unspecified “pressing issues.”

“Unfortunately, we must reschedule the Berlin meetings due to pressing issues. We look forward to rescheduling this important set of meetings. The Secretary looks forward to being in Berlin soon,” according to a statement from the State Department that was relayed to the American embassy.

Merkel issued a brief statement saying the joint appearance had been cancelled because of the “cancellation by the US side.”

Pompeo was in the region to attend talks in Finland, where he warned China and Russia against pursuing “aggressive” actions in the Arctic, while resisting a diplomatic push by other countries in the region to take steps to curb climate change. He also met with his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Those speculating about the reason for the cancellation have a veritable buffet of US gripes to choose from. These include: Germany’s decision to balk at banning Huawei from its 5G network, US criticisms of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, and Trump’s persistent NATO bashing, which has largely focused on Germany’s not spending enough on defense.

Juergen Hardt, a lawmaker in Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, insisted that Pompeo’s cancellation wasn’t a snub.

Though he added that “it’s a pity that this meeting isn’t taking place.”

 

end

Germany/Deutsche bank

Chris Whalen is one smart cookie.  In his latest commentary he discusses Deutsche bank’s problems and how its crisis can and will become our crisis.  He outlines the Bank’s huge derivative exposure

(Chris Whalen/American Conservative Blog)

When Deutsche Bank’s Crisis Becomes Our Crisis

Authored by Christopher Whalen via The American Conservative blog,

Americans generally think of Europe first as a wonderful place to visit. They rarely ponder the economic and financial ties between the United States and European Union, but in fact these ties are extensive and significant to the stability of both economies. One area of particular connection involves the large banks and companies that provide services on both sides of the Atlantic. It is this area of commercial finance that risks are actually growing to the United States—in large part due to political gridlock in Europe stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.

Credit market professionals have been aware of problems among the European banks for many years. Their lack of profitability, combined with high credit losses and a lack of transparency have created a minefield for global investors going back decades. Whereas the United States has a bankruptcy court system to protect investors, in Europe the process of resolving insolvency is an opaque muddle that leans heavily in favor of corporate debtors and their political sponsors.

When we talk about true mediocrity among European banks, one of the leading example are, surprisingly, German institutions. Germany, after all, has a reputation for being the economic leader of Europe and a global industrial power, thus the continued failures in the financial sector are truly remarkable.

The biggest example, Deutsche Bank, Germany’s largest bank, has had problems with capital and profitability going back decades.

But Deutsche Bank’s problems are not unique.

What is troubling and indeed significant for American policy makers, however, is the nearly complete failure of our friends in Europe to address their banking sector, either in terms of cleaning up bad assets or raising capital to enable the cleanup.

One of the political understandings that came out of the Basel III process (a regulatory regime first introduced in 2013 to promote stability in the international financial system) was that the United States would take a harder view on mortgage related exposures and particularly intangible assets like mortgage servicing rights. The Europeans, it is said by participants, agreed to take a tougher line on bad assets loitering inside banks and to particularly require banks to take a reserve against bad credits immediately.

Prior to 2018, when the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, directed EU banks to start recognizing bad credits, international accounting rules essentially allowed EU banks to ignore bad credits. Indeed, EU banks could pretend that loan payments were still being received. Loans that defaulted prior to 2018 were not included in the directive. Thus Europe has a decade of detritus sitting in the loan portfolios of many banks that is neither disclosed nor properly valued. Whereas in the United States banks must charge-off bad assets down to some expected recovery value, in Europe we extend and pretend.

Many observers were surprised several years ago when Chinese airline conglomerate HNA arrived on the scene as the new shareholder of Deutsche Bank, a significant global investment bank that provides a range of services in the United States. The German lender had been marketing an offering of new equity shares for years without luck, thus the arrival of the high-flying and highly-leveraged HNA was greeted with quiet gratitude in European capitals. No European politician wants to be caught dead talking about large banks in anything but the most responsible tones, thus nobody asked any questions about HNA or its owners.

Sadly the HNA equity investment in Deutsche Bank was financed with a lot of debt. When the Chinese firm started to literally implode two years ago due to massive debt payments on its $40 billion in obligations, it began to sell its shares in Deutsche Bank, creating the latest crisis for the chronically underperforming bank. Today HNA is being liquidated under the supervision of the Chinese government. And to this day, nobody among United States or European bank regulators really knows who owns the company that was briefly the largest shareholder of Deutsche Bank

The setback with HNA led to discussions of merging Deutsche Bank with Germany’s Commerzbank, another poor performer among the country’s banking sector. Again, German politicians led by Chancellor Angela Merkel refuse to even hint at public assistance for Deutsche Bank, but the mounting troubles with banks across Europe may force Merkel’s hand as it has in Italy.

Bank earnings in Europe are weak, notes veteran bank consultant Mayra Rodriguez Valladares. As she explains in a recent Forbes column:

Unfortunately, many of European banks’ woes are of their own making. A host of regulatory and legal fines and ongoing money laundering investigations of several banks do not bode well for European earnings. According to a Moody’s Investors Services report: ‘European banks were fined over $16 billion from 2012 to 2018 related to money laundering and trade sanction breaches.’

Rodriguez Valladares notes that U.S. and EU banks are enormously intertwined, particularly in terms of funding and derivatives—two areas of keen interest to U.S. regulators. But the fact of the matter is that the EU banking system and the EU economy are still too weak to shoulder the burden of a general cleanup of bad credits in EU banks.

The economic reality and ugly politics are both too daunting for EU leaders to engage publicly on these issues. Indeed, German Finance Minister Olaf Scholtz, who is touted as a possible successor to Merkel, was attacked by opposition politicians because of the prospective job losses in a Deutsche-Commerzbank merger.

But sadly the union of two zombie banks was not to be. “Banking giant Deutsche Bank and its crosstown rival Commerzbank ended merger talks, leaving in tatters the German government’s hope to shore up both banks and create a banking powerhouse,” The Wall Street Journal reported on April 25.

So now the German government must try to identify another politically expedient way to hide the Deutsche Bank problem without resorting to an explicit state bailout. Not only is financial help for EU banks problematic politically, but the EU simply lacks the economic resources to clean up the broader asset quality problems affecting European banks.

The tendency of EU politicians to stick their heads in the sand when it comes to these issues represents a smoldering threat to global financial stability. Troubles affecting Deutsche Bank and other EU lenders could easily explode into financial contagion if markets decide to turn away from these banks à la Lehman Brothers. For American business leaders and political leaders, the festering problems in European banks are a source of potential risk that could cause significant economic problems for all of us. Stay tuned.

END

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Israel/Gaza

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

One of my favourite Bellwether indicators:  The Baltic Dry Index which is simply a measure of cost to move dry goods by ship. It just broke a 1000 down to 985. We are close to the worst levels last seen in 2008 at around 700.

 

(courtesy Scrap Register)

Baltic index declines to 985 points on weak capesize demand

 

LONDON (Scrap Register): The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships ferrying dry bulk commodities, on Friday posted its biggest one-day percentage fall in three months as demand for capesize vessels slipped.

The Baltic index, which reflects rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels, fell 47 points, or 4.6 percent, to 985 points. This represents its biggest daily percentage decline since Jan. 31.

The capesize index fell for first time since mid-April, down 9.2 percent, or 130 points, at 1,290 points. Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 170,000 tonne-180,000 tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, were down $1,164 at $11,182.

The panamax index rose 1 point to 1,190 points. Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 tonnes to 70,000 tonnes, edged up $8 to $9,524.

The supramax index slipped 3 points to 752 points

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

VENEZUELA

 

end

 

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1194 DOWN .0006 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.62 DOWN 0.182 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3025   DOWN   0.0023  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3483 UP .0013 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 6 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  FALLING to 1.1194 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED up 19.93 POINTS OR 0.69% 

 

 

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 871.73 POINTS OR 2.90%

 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .21%// EUROPEAN BOURSES RED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 335.61 POINTS OR 1.51% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED RED 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 153.20 POINTS OF 0.50% 

 

 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 19.93 POINTS OR 0.69% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP  .21% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 335.61 POINTS OR 1.51%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1280.30

silver:$14.83

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.47% !!! DOWN 6 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.89 DOWN 4  IN BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 97.55 UP 4 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.09%  DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.04%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from MONDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.96% DOWN 2   IN basis point yield from MONDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.62 UP 6  POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 166 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS –.04%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.66% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1176  DOWN     .0035 or 35 basis points

 

USA/Japan: 110.32 DOWN 0.479 OR YEN UP 48  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3047 DOWN .0050 POUND DOWN 50  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 25 basis points to 1.3473

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed AT 6.7763    0N SHORE  (DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7979  (YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  6.1619 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.04%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 7 IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.46 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.89 DOWN 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.64  UP 12  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 120,17  0.63%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 194.14 POINTS OR 1.58%

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 87.77 POINTS OR 1.60%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 95.90 POINTS or 1.03%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 190.15 POINTS OR 0.80%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 61.26 1:00 pm

Brent Oil: 70.11 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.36  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.12 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 12 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.04 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  61.24

 

 

BRENT :  69.54

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.45…   STILL DEADLY//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.86..VERY DEADLY

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1192 ( DOWN 9   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.28 DOWN .570 (YEN UP 57 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.59 UP 8 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.075 UP 21 POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.1539

 

the Russian rouble 65.35   DOWN 15 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 15 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3470 DOWN 21 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7763  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7979 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,+0.04%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN 473.39 POINTS OR 1.79%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 159.53 POINTS OR 1.96%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  19.74 CLOSED UP 4.30

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.559%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.575

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Traders Bet Worst-To-Come As Trade Turmoil Sparks Huge Deleveraging

Well that re-escalated quickly…

A small bounce in China did nothing to lipstick that pig…

 

European stocks were ugly as various data and forecasts disappointed…

 

And Bund yields dropped back below zero…

 

And then there was ‘Murica! Futures dumped right after the bell on Lighthizer confirmation of increased tariffs, then spiked during the EU session on headlines that China VP Liu would make it to DC, but that didn’t last long as yet another dead-cat-bounce died… The machines went panic-bid into the close

In cash markets, Trannies lead the collapse on the week but Nasdaq was ugly today…The Dow was down 648 points at the lows of the day…

Today was The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq’s biggest daily point loss since 2018

The ramp in the last few minutes was all algos all the way as they lifted the market back to the day’s VWAP…suggesting it was a buyback program

While the S&P held above its 50DMA, Dow broke and closed below its 50DMA – the first close below it since Jan 15th…

 

As Semis were slaughtered…worst day since the start of 2019…

As Nomura’s Charlie McElligott shows in this stunning intraday chart, the magnitude of the excess Futures notional of S&P, Nasdaq and Russell above the combined Cash notional (and adjusting ‘roll’ days, defined as the first future traded notional-second fut traded notion) is supportive of the view that today’s trade is absolutely driven by futures deleveraging…

…And perhaps indicative that this is indeed both the 1) Asset Manager monetization of “Longs;” 2) our estimate that CTA Trend models may be reducing their “Long” (as described in more detail below) and of course 3) dealer Gamma hedging activity.

Additionally, McElligott warned, we are now in “negative Gamma” territory in SPX / SPY and QQQ options landscape –

All as the VIX curve inverts and forces “short vega” covering from systematics…

With VVIX really beginning to dance and price some serious “gap” / tail-risk @ 111:

 

Given the record short positioning…

VIX is notably inverted…

It is not a surprise that VIX is dramatically underperforming credit (although spreads have started to crack wider)…

 

Treasury yields tumbled intraday…

 

With 10Y Yields back at their lowest since April 1st…

 

And the yield curve flattened… with 3m10Y spread back near inverted…

 

The market’s expectations for rate-moves this year shifted dovishly today as stocks fell – dropping to a 30bps rate cut…

 

The dollar index managed modest gains on the day, once again in demand overnight…

 

Cryptos were extremely noisy today with a broad-based sell program hitting this morning…

As Bitcoin twice tried for $600, and was rejected…

 

PMs were higher, crude and copper lower on the day…

 

Finally, a reminder from BMO’s Brad Wishak highlighted, the world’s favorite (and also largest) index to completely ignore is flashing another negative divergence here…the exact same divergence that kicked off the the fall equity slide lower.

Back in SEP the SPX pushed to new all time highs while the NYSE did not, flagging the initial divergence. Just last week, the SPX again made fresh all time highs with the NYSE again NOT confirming.

Is it different this time?

Not according to options traders as Bloomberg reports that a growing cohort of investors is betting the worst is yet to come.

Demand for protection against more losses over the next month is higher than at any time during the fourth-quarter rout that almost ended the bull market, going by relative levels of implied volatility on S&P 500 options. The derived price for one-month puts that pay off if the S&P 500 falls 10 percent below its current level has soared compared to the cost for calls that would pay out if the benchmark gauge rose 5 percent in that time.

“This is an event being priced in the very near term that didn’t exist just a few days ago,” said Pravit Chintawongvanich, Wells Fargo’s equity derivative strategist, who emphasized that the reaction in very near-dated options was disproportionately large relative to longer-dated options.

“Vol is well bid, and it makes sense given we suddenly got a 2 percent move out of nowhere.”

We leave you with a new hope…

Quoth the Raven@QTRResearch

Help us Larry Kudlow, you’re our only hope

END

Market trading: last night

Markets replunge after Lighthizer confirms the tariffs hikes will take place after China reneges on its promises

(courtesy zerohedge)

Markets Re-Plunge As Lighthizer Confirms Tariff-Hikes After China Reneges On Promises

While a Chinese delegation is still scheduled to visit Washington as planned this week, with talks to take place Thursday and Friday, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told reporters Monday that the Trump administration plans to increase duties on Chinese imports at 12:01 a.m. on Friday, accusing Beijing of backpedaling on commitments it made during negotiations.

U.S. and China had been making substantial progress on a trade deal, but in the past week China has reneged on some of its promises:

We felt we were on track to get somewhere. Over the course of last week we have seen an erosion of commitments by China,” Lighthizer said, adding that significant issues remain unresolved, including whether tariffs will remain in place.

The result, more than half of the intraday gains have been erased already…

Futures have closed now (1400ET) but Stock ETFs continue to drift lower…

Trade-sensitive stocks are pushing back towards the lows of the day session…

Treasury yields tumbled to the lows of the day…

Yuan also slipped…

More problematic – or perhaps he just had to say that – Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin added that the market’s reaction was not a factor in China talks.

No PPT?

end
This morning
This morning:  Dow dumps 300 points as the opening bounces dies.  Treasury yields also tumble.
(zerohedge)

Dow Dumps 300 Points As Opening Bounce Dies, Treasury Yields Tumble

Treasury yields are tumbling as US equity markets re-plunge after some overnight gains on Liu headlines.

Dow futures are down over 300 points…

Dow futures are back below the 50DMA…

 

But Nasdaq futures are the laggard, near yesterday’s lows…

And Treasury yields are back below pre-FOMC levels…

end

ii)Market data/

 

end

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

the Bond King Gundlach is just spoken and he warns that the bear market is just getting started and he believes that there is a better than 50% chance that the trade talks collapse

(courtesy zerohedge)

Gundlach Warns Bear Market Just Getting Started, “Better Than 50% Chance” Trade Talks Collapse

Never one to stray off message, DoubleLine Capital’s Jeff Gundlach sat down for a mid-day interview with CNBC’s Scott Wapner on Tuesday, where he elaborated on many of his talking points from his headlining appearance at Sohn.

As one of the few speakers at Sohn whose pitches have actually generated alpha for anybody willing to heed his advice (at last year’s conference, Gundlach recommended traders short Facebook and buy oil companies), the audience and the financial press listened attentively on Monday as he recommended shorting the lowest polling Democratic contenders (presumably on PredictIt or some other online betting platform), and touched on a familiar topic: The risks posed by the surging US debt interest.

Gundlach

In keeping with his preternatural talent for sniffing out contrarian positions that eventually triumph over the consensus, Gundlach pitched the Sohn crowd on a long-rates volatility play that pits him against that most insurmountable of market adversaries: The now uber-dovish Feb.

As equities spiraled toward their lows of the day on Tuesday, Gundlach, who offended Jim Cramer late last year when he sent stocks reeling after he declared equities to be in a bear market during a brief interview with CNBC, doubled down on that view during his interview with Wapner.

Equity bulls can repeat stats about the market’s Q1 rebound – admittedly, one of the best in decades – until they are red in the face, but, Gundlach argued, until the NYSE Composite surpasses its highs from January 2018, the US will remain in a cyclical bull market.

“People keep acting like this is some sort of locomotive that’s chugging along but the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index – which to me is the most important one because it’s the biggest – it peaked in January of 2018 and then couldn’t quite make it back to that peak in October and now it couldn’t quite get back to that October level and now it’s rolling over again,” Gundlach said.

“A bear market is really more about cycles and manias and then things one by one rolling over and the market getting narrower and narrower, and I think all of that has been happening over about an 18-month time period,” Gundlach said.

But lest readers are left with the impression that Gundlach’s bearish view is based purely on technicals, the DoubleLine founder explained that, in the near term, he expects stocks to power lower as trade talks between the US and China collapse, a process that has already started to unravel. As of now, he sees a 50% chance that Trump moves ahead with new tariffs.

“I think we’re going to keep seeing more tension and I think the 25% tariff bump is better than 50% chance” Gundlach told Wapner. “Both the premier of China and the president of the United States want to come across that they prevailed and didn’t give in.”

“I think you’ve got an irresistible force meeting an immovable object,” Gundlach said.

Embedded video

CNBC

@CNBC

“I think that you’ve got an irresistible force meeting an immovable object,” @DLineCap CEO @TruthGundlach says on U.S.-China trade talks. He says it’s more than likely that new tariffs will happen. https://cnb.cx/2VlTI3l

If the White House follows through with its threats to raise tariffs on Friday, Gundlach believes stocks will move even lower.

“It’s already happening, I think. The market obviously doesn’t want increased tariffs, so it’s been kind of reacting to that,” Gundlach said.

“I think that we’re in a late cycle and I think the market can only be termed by the way I look at evolution of market prices as a bear market,” Gundlach said. “The market hasn’t gone anywhere in 15 months and its down in many parts of the world.”

So, I don’t know – I’m going to flip the question. If anybody wants to say how can I say it’s a bear market, how can I say it’s a bull market? I mean it’s been a good year to date, yes I agree. But to characterize the last 15 months as a bull market is just wrong.”

Moving on, the conversation soon turned to a discussion of the cognitive dissonance between Trump’s celebration of economic data that confirms his market narrative, and his insistence that the Fed must cut rates to keep the party going. Gundlach said he doesn’t think Trump can “get away with it…blaming it on” the Fed.

Trump is wrong on both counts, according to Gundlach: Not only has the labor market picture actually deteriorated under Trump, but if the Fed keeps policy easy and the economy still prints a negative, then Trump “can’t brag about the economy any more.”

Embedded video

CNBC

@CNBC

“It’s unbelievable the Twilight Zone that we’re sort of living in, where people just say things and it gets repeated,” Gundlach says. “I think probably we’re numb to that because of social media.”

He also took a jab at Americans’ passive acceptance of what Trump has been saying as fact, blaming social media for turning everyone in Lemmings. In reality, the economy is incredibly vulnerable, and the US would be in serious trouble if a down turn hits.

“The economy is in such bad shape to withstand a downturn. Again, the national debt is exploding while we’re having some of the best GDP year-over-year that we’ve had in recent years. Right? So the economy is not in any kind of condition for the government to come to the rescue other than really wickedly extraordinary policies a la the ECB and the BOJ.”

“That’s what he’s about: bragging about the economy,” Gundlach said. “He keeps talking about how the jobs have never been created so much ever in history. Except for one little fact: If you take the number of months Trump’s been in office and take the average nonfarm payrolls and compare it to the same number of months at the end of the Obama president, there were more under Obama!”

“It’s unbelievable the twilight zone that we’re sort of living in, where people just say things and it gets repeated. I think probably we’re numb to that because of social media,” Gundlach added.

Though like Trump, Gundlach didn’t shy away from bashing the Fed and Chairman Jay Powell.

“Well, frankly, Jay Powell’s most recent press conference looked lost to me. Or maybe the right word is scared. Scared to say anything. So, we’re kind of rudderless now I think in terms of the Fed. They just want things to be okay and to hold together and they don’t want to say anything or change their rhetoric or scare anybody.”

Moving away from markets – at least for the moment – Gundlach railed against the national debt, calling it “totally out of control,” and again warned about the simmering risks in the corporate debt market.

Embedded video

CNBC

@CNBC

“Bond King” Jeffrey Gundlach says the national debt is “totally out of control.” https://cnb.cx/2VlTYPR

He blamed the ballooning deficit and national debt (something we’ve also discussed at length) as the “main reasons” the 3s5s curve has steepened. He also warned that blowing out the deficit, as Trump did, would leave the US incredibly vulnerable during the next down turn.

“People are starting to realize that the deficit and debt are totally out of control,” Gundlach said.

“The economy is in such bad shape to withstand a downturn again,” Gundlach said. “The national debt is exploding while we’re having some of the best GDP year over year that we’ve had in recent years.”

The corporate bond market, meanwhile, are “so much worse today than it was in 2006.” The corporate bond market has tripled in size, and a BBB rated bond market that is now bigger than the junk-bond market. Using leverage ratios alone, “45%, not just of the BBB but the entire corporate bond market would be junk right now,” he said, citing figures from Morgan Stanley.

A recession or downturn could “spark” a wave of downgrades from investment grade bonds into junk bonds (another issue that we’ve discussed at length).

Finally, Gundlach discussed his Sohn trade reco, advising Wapner that investors could get rich on interest-rate volatility, which has sunk to multi-year lows since the beginning year, leaving options incredibly cheap.

The Fed has been all over the place, Gundlach argued, and the level of the volatility probably won’t stay this low for another year, especially with the Treasury floating so many new bonds. Even if the Fed goes all in on MMT, sine volatility is so cheap, an options straddle should yield immense profits even if there’s only a short-term increase in rates.

Embedded video

CNBC

@CNBC

At @SohnConf, Gundlach said investors can get rich off interest rate volatility ahead. He explains his picks: https://cnb.cx/2H5QvLd

While a 30-40 basis point move would make the straddle profitable, Gundlach says he believes traders could profit on both sides when rates climb and the Fed ultimately comes to the rescue.

SWAMP STORIES

Ex CIA chief explains that the FBI did indeed conduct espionage on the Trump campaign

(courtesy zerohedge)

‘I’d Call That Spying’: CIA’s Ex-Counterintel Chief Says FBI Conducted Espionage On Trump Campaign

The FBI’s use of “confidential human informants” to obtain information from Trump campaign officials under false pretenses was straight up spying, according to the CIA’s former head of counterintelligence, James Olson, a 30-year agency veteran who served under six presidents, and who once conducted an undercover overseas mission with his wife.

“It does sounds like spying,” said Olson in response to a question from the Hill.Tv‘s Saagar Enjeti. “spying can take many different forms and the art of spying has evolved.”

Embedded video

Saagar Enjeti

@esaagar

NEW: Former head of CIA counter-intelligence James Olson tells me of the FBI sending an investigator to interview @GeorgePapa19 under false pretenses in London in 2016: “Yeah I’d call that spying” https://thehill.com/hilltv/442337-former-cia-counter-intel-chief-on-fbi-2016-actions-id-call-that-spying 

Olson spoke with Enjeti following a bombshell admission in the New York Times confirming that the FBI sent a government investigator to London in September 2016 to meet with Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos while posing as “Azra Turk” – assistant to another FBI spy, the well-paid Stefan Halper (who once oversaw a CIA operation to spy on Jimmy Carter on behalf of the Reagan campaign, under the direction of then-Vice-Presidential candidate George H.W. Bush).

Of note, Papadopoulos contends that “Azra Turk” is CIA, not FBI.

George Papadopoulos@GeorgePapa19

I agree with everything in this superb article except “Azra Turk” clearly was not FBI. She was CIA and affiliated with Turkish intel. She could hardly speak English and was tasked to meet me about my work in the energy sector offshore Israel/Cyprus which Turkey was competing with

Mark Mazzetti@MarkMazzettiNYT

NEW: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/02/us/politics/fbi-government-investigator-trump.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share 

Meanwhile, Trump called the Times piece “bigger than WATERGATE, but the reverse!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Finally, Mainstream Media is getting involved – too “hot” to avoid. Pulitzer Prize anyone? The New York Times, on front page (finally), “Details effort to spy on Trump Campaign.” @foxandfriends This is bigger than WATERGATE, but the reverse!

When asked about “Azra Turk,” Olson said “I think that person did misrepresent the purpose and was looking for information,” adding “Yeah, I’d call that spying.”

Attorney General William Barr set off a firestorm of debate last month during congressional testimony after he referred to the FBI’s activities against the 2016 Trump campaign as “spying,” a phrase he later defended during testimony last week – saying “I’m not going to abjure the use of the word ‘spying,” adding “I think spying is a good English word that, in fact, doesn’t have synonyms because it is the broadest word incorporating really all forms of covert intelligence collection.”

“So I’m not going to back off the word ‘spying.‘”

Of Olson’s time in the CIA, he told NBCDFW in 2017: “My career would really, I think, boil down to chasing Russians wherever there were Russians,” Olson said. “They were our number-one Cold War adversary, and my job was to monitor their activities, but above all, to recruit them as spies for us and then to handle them as spies for us, which I did on the streets of Moscow among other places.

END

Strange: Arizona democrats after claiming that there is no border no beg Trump for help with a flood of migrants

go figure…

(courtesy zerohedge)

Arizona Democrats Claim No Border Crisis – Then Beg Trump For Help With Flood Of Migrants

Five Arizona House Democrats who have repeatedly denied that there is a crisis at the border have asked acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan to help with the flood of immigrants at the southern border by appointing a “federal crisis coordinator.

In a Monday letter to McAleenan, the Democrats suggested that the Trump administration’s border security policies were setting up “a range of other catastrophic issues,” according to The Hill.

Arizona Democratic Reps. Ruben Gallego, Raúl Grijalva, Ann KirkpatrickGreg Stanton and Tom O’Halleran wrote that the administration’s measures to use Defense Department funds, build a wall, cut aid to Central America and threaten to shut down the U.S.-Mexico border “will create a range of other catastrophic issues and fail to address this humanitarian crisis in any way.” –The Hill

“This humanitarian crisis requires a humanitarian response,” reads the letter. “To that end, we believe that you should immediately increase communication and coordination among federal, state, local, and tribal governments as well as non-governmental stakeholders to promote the well-being and safety of migrant families, process asylum claims quicker, efficiently use federal and non-federal resources, and ensure that DHS [Department of Homeland Security] can meet its national security mission.”

On April 16, the city of Yuma, AZ declared an emergencyover the influex of migrants, however according to the Arizona Mirror the town has yet to receive meaningful funding from state or federal agencies.

Wait, what border crisis? 

Many of the same Democrats who signed the letter have repeatedly denied that there is a crisis at the border, only to eventually call it a “humanitarian crisis” created by President Trump.

Raul M. Grijalva

@RepRaulGrijalva

Making Nogales look like a war zone doesn’t mean there is a crisis at the border.

To say it louder for the people in the back: the only crisis at the border is the one created by the Trump Administration’s policies. This wire needs to go. http://ow.ly/bMwF30nClSp

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Raul M. Grijalva

@RepRaulGrijalva

Forcing Nogales to serve as a photo opp for the President’s manufactured crisis is completely ridiculous. I stand with the City of Nogales and their resolution condemning the concertina wire at the border. I sent a letter to DHS and DOD demanding that this wire come down.

Last August, Gallego encouraged US government officials to disobey orders from the sitting president in response to the Trump administration’s immigration policies.

Ruben Gallego

@RubenGallego

If you are a US government official and you are deporting Americans be warned. When the worm turns you will not be safe because you were just following orders. You do not have to take part in illegal acts ordered by this President’s administration.

Chris Hayes

@chrislhayes

Last month, Rep. Kirkpatrick –  one of the Arizona Democrats asking DHS to appoint a crisis coordinator – said: “a border wall doesn’t solve anything.

Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick

@RepKirkpatrick

.@realdonaldtrump should listen to the Congressmembers who actually represent border communities. Our districts and our country reap huge economic benefits when we address the real issues that affect our border—a border wall doesn’t solve anything.

Rep. Juan Vargas

@RepJuanVargas

.@realDonaldTrump & @GOPLeader are in #Calexico today to talk border issues. Don’t be fooled. They’re just here to spread lies to further their narrative. I won’t let them misrepresent my district for their own political gain. (1/5)

Except that walls work…

In 2013, Israel completed a 143-mile fence with Egypt that cost around $2.9 million per mile – which resulted in a 99% decrease in illegal immigration that even Politifact deemed true.

Benjamin Netanyahu

@netanyahu

President Trump is right. I built a wall along Israel’s southern border. It stopped all illegal immigration. Great success. Great idea 🇮🇱🇺🇸

Meanwhile, “Bulgaria erected a barrier on its Turkish perimeter in 2013. That year’s 11,000 illegal crossings dropped to 4,000 in 2014 — down 63.6 percent,” according to National Reviewwhich adds “Just as British Gibraltar dangles from Spain’s underside, Spanish Ceuta and Melilla surf atop Morocco. Multiple fences and barriers there sliced 2014’s 2,100 arrests at the Spanish-territorial/Moroccan frontier to 2015’s 100 — down 95.2 percent.”

Back in the US, the Border Patrol reported a 93.7% decrease in San Diego county border crossings between 1992, when a border wall was installed, and 2017. The apprehension rate dropped from around 560,000 to 26,086.

And as the National Review noted in January:

 A barrier between the Tucson, Ariz., sector and Nogales, Mexico, was erected in 2000. That year’s 616,346 arrests plunged to 38,657 in FY 2017 — down 93.7 percent.

 A fence installed at the border between Yuma, Arizona, and Los Algondones, Mexico brought apprehensions from 138,438 in FY 2005 to 12,847 in FY 2017 — down 90.7 percent.

Crime has significantly decreased in the Yuma area,” then–acting homeland security secretary Elaine Duke wrote in USA Today in August 2017, “and smugglers now look for other less difficult areas of the border to cross — often areas without fencing.”

• A 150-mile barrier between Israel and southern Egypt cut the number of illegal-alien entrants from 17,000 in 2011 to 43 in 2013, after the fence’s completion, Israel’s Ministry of the Interior states — down 99.7 percent.

And now, Arizona Democrats who mocked the notion of a border crisis, then called it Trump’s ‘manufactured humanitarian crisis,’ are now asking his administration for help – with the southern border. 

END

SWAMP STORIES/KEY STORIES/KING REPORT

(COURTESY OF CHRIS POWELL OF GATA)

Another reason for oil’s rally: Scoop: Israel passed White House intelligence on possible Iran plot

An alleged Iranian plot to attack U.S. interests in the Gulf…

https://www.axios.com/israel-warned-trump-of-possible-iran-plot-bolton-34f25563-c3f3-41ee-a653-9d96b4541984.html

After the NYSE close on Monday: Lighthizer Says China ‘Reneging’ on Trade-Talk Commitments

U.S. trade representative says U.S. to raise tariffs to 25% on $200 billion in Chinese goods [on Friday]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/lighthizer-says-china-reneging-on-trade-talk-commitments-11557176867

Peter Strzok suspected CIA employees were behind inaccurate leaks to the press regarding possible Trump campaign contacts with Russia, according to an email the former FBI counterintelligence official sent to colleagues in April 2017…  

   “I’m beginning to think the agency got info a lot earlier than we thought and hasn’t shared it completely with us. Might explain all these weird/seemingly incorrect leads all these media folks have. Would also highlight agency as source of some of the leaks,” Strzok wrote in an email to FBI colleagues on April 13, 2017…   https://dailycaller.com/2019/05/06/peter-strzok-cia-leaks-email/

 

Senators Grassley and Johnson’s letter to Intel IG Atkinson about above Strzok email/allegations:

Think our sisters have been leaking like mad.  Scorned and worried and political, they’re kicking into overdrive.”… These texts and emails demonstrate the need to investigate leaks from agencies or entities other than the FBI… https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/2019-05-06%20RHJ%20CEG%20to%20IC%20IG%20(leaks).pdf

 

Trump: James Comey Probably Led the Spying Efforts – Will Find Out

https://saraacarter.com/trump-james-comey-propably-led-the-spying-efforts-will-find-out/

 

Ex-SDNY prosecutor Andy McCarthy: The FBI’s Trump-Russia Investigation Was Formally Opened on False Pretenses – The FBI formally opened the foreign-counterintelligence probe code-named “Crossfire Hurricane” on July 31, 2016, held that the Trump campaign knew about, and was potentially complicit in, Russia’s possession of hacked emails that would compromise Hillary Clinton…

Papadopoulos Knew Nothing about the DNC Emails — and Probably Nothing about Any Emails…

Papadopoulos Had No Knowledge of Russia’s Intentions…

The State Department and the FBI Distort What Papadopoulos ‘Suggested’…

Distorting Papadopoulos’s Role to Obscure Reliance on the Steele Dossier…

    The State Department’s report to the FBI claiming that Papadopoulos had “suggested” these things to Downer was manufactured to portray a false connection between (a) what Papadopoulos told Downer and (b) the hacking and publication of the DNC emails. That false connection then became the rationale for formally opening the FBI’s Trump-Russia investigation — paper cover for an investigation of the Trump campaign that was already under way.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/05/fbi-trump-russia-investigation-george-papadopoulos/

 

ND law prof. Cleveland: Major Report Omission Shows Mueller Was Either Incompetent or a Political Hack – Not once does Robert Mueller mention an investigation into whether Russia interfered with the presidential election by feeding dossier author Christopher Steele misinformation…

   Grassley continued: “Mueller spent over two years and 30 million dollars investigating Russia interference in the election. In order for a full accounting of Russia interference attempts, shouldn’t the special counsel have considered whether the Steele dossier was part of a Russian disinformation and interfere campaign?”…

   Sen. John Cornyn asked the attorney general, “How do we know that the Steele dossier is not evidence of a Russian disinformation campaign? Knowing what we know now that the allegations are unverified? Can we state with confidence that the Steele dossier was not part of the Russian disinformation campaign?” Barr responded: “No, I can’t state that with confidence, and that is one of the areas that I’m reviewing. I’m concerned about it, and I don’t think it is entirely speculative.”

    If Barr is concerned about it, why wasn’t Mueller? Any competent prosecutor would have investigated whether Russia peddled false intel to Steele…

     Of course, there is another possibility: Steele could have invented his Russian sources and the “intel” they supposedly provided him. If so, Steele should have been charged with lying to the FBI. Yet Steele remains a free man, showing either Mueller is incompetent or a political hack.

https://thefederalist.com/2019/05/06/major-report-omission-shows-mueller-either-incompetent-political-hack/#.XNBBPXQ-MGk.twitter

 

Mueller report richly cites liberal media that pushed Russia-Trump collusion

Special counsel Robert Mueller relied on the media to feed his Russian election interference report, citing scores of stories mostly from news outlets that promoted the debunked Trump-Kremlin election conspiracy.  Mr. Mueller’s staff of Democrat-aligned prosecutors favored The New York Times over other publications. The 448-page report cited The Times more than 60 times, mostly in footnotes for articles that weave through the report’s main narrative…

    Emmet T. Flood, Mr. Trump’s White House Russia investigation counsel, calls the Mueller report “part law school exam paper.”

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/may/5/robert-mueller-report-cites-trump-russia-election-/

 

White House Counsel Emmett Flood’s letter to Attorney General Barr on Mueller report

The SCO report suffers from an extraordinary legal deficit: It quite deliberately fails to comply with the requirements of governing law…

    Because they do not belong to our criminal justice vocabularythe SCO’s inverted-proof-standard and ‘exoneration’ statements can be understood only as political statements, issuing from persons (federal prosecutors) who in our system of government are rightly expected never to be political in the performance of their duties.  The inverted burden of proof knowingly embedded in the SCO’s conclusion shows that the Special Counsel and his staff failed in their duty to act as prosecutors and only as prosecutors… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/read-white-house-counsel-emmett-floods-letter-to-attorney-general-barr-on-mueller-report

 

How Attorney General Barr could change the federal culture of corruption in 60 days

Several months ago, an FBI source told me that numerous whistleblowers had gone to members of Congress with information about the FBI and the Trump-Russia scandal, only to have congressional leaders turn their names over to the Department of Justice. True or not, this was the word on the street, and it had a chilling impact on other would-be whistleblowers…

     Establish a 60-day amnesty period of time for anyone in the intel community to come forward and admit their own wrongdoing or blow the whistle on others

https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/442206-how-attorney-general-barr-could-change-the-federal-culture-of-corruption-in#.XNCDTMM-hNs.twitter

 

@seanmdav on Nadler threat to hold Barr in contempt of Congress: Violate federal law against releasing grand jury information so we can impeach and remove you from office, or refuse to violate the law and we’ll hold you in contempt. What a farce.  [‘Tis why Barr is ignoring Nadler et al.]

 

@seanmdav: This is wild: this [FBI contracted] linguist, who translated intercepted communications for the FBI, heard his own voice on intercepted calls from a suspected terrorist–the terrorist left a message on the linguist’s voicemail–and lied about it to hide his complicity.  [The FBI desperately needs change.]

 

US DoJ: Former FBI Linguist Arrested and Indicted on Obstruction Charges [Who hired him?]

Abdirizak Jaji Raghe Wehelie, aka Haji Raghe, 66, of Burke, was a federal contractor for the FBI and worked as a linguist translating communications captured by court-authorized surveillance of a suspect (Person A) in a terrorism investigation. Wehelie allegedly intentionally misidentified his own voice that was captured when Person A left a voicemail message on Wehelie’s mobile telephone. When questioned by FBI investigators about this particular incident, Wehelie made several misleading and/or false statements… https://www.justice.gov/usao-edva/pr/former-fbi-linguist-arrested-and-indicted-obstruction-charges

 

Not One Democrat Presidential Candidate Defended Israel during Rocket Attacks

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/05/06/israel-no-comment-from-democrat-presidential-candidates-about-gaza-rockets/

I WILL SEE YOU WEDNESDAY NIGHT

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