MAY 9/GOLD UP $4.00 TO $1284.60//SILVER IS DOWN 9 CENTS TO $14.77//QUEUE JUMPING CONTINUES UNABATED AT THE GOLD AND SILVER COMEX//SILVER IS STILL 7 CENTS BACKWARD IN LONDON//USA THREATENS ALLY UK IF THEY USE HUAWEI PRODUCTS//TURKEY IS SEVERE TROUBLE AS INTEREST RATES RISE TO 25.5% AND THE LIRA TUMBLES TO 6.23 TO THE DOLLAR//SOME GOOD SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1284.60  UP $4.00 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $14.77 DOWN 9 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold : 1283.90

 

 

 

silver:  $14.76

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 3/5

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,279.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/08/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 05/10/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 C JP MORGAN 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 5 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 5 5
MONTH TO DATE: 176

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 5 NOTICE(S) FOR 500 OZ (0.0155 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  176 NOTICES FOR 17600 OZ  (.5474 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MAY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

49 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 265,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3328 for 16,640,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :$6106  UP $107.00

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6136 UP $115

 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A TINY SIZED 685 CONTRACTS FROM 199,497 DOWN TO 198,782 ACCOMPANYING YESTERDAY’S  3 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. ,LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED FOR SILVER BUT IT NOW COMMENCES FOR GOLD. TODAY WE705RRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

 0 FOR MAY, 0 FOR JUNE, 730 FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  730 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 730 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 730 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.650 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 3 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

AND NOW 18.225 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MOAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MAY:

9538 CONTRACTS (FOR 7 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 9538 CONTRACTS) OR 47.69 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1362 CONTRACTS OR 6.81 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY:  47.69 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 6.81% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          788.52    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED  DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 685 WITH THE  3 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 730 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS RESUMED THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES TODAY.

 

TODAY WE GAINED A TINY SIZED: 45 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 730 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 685 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 3 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.89 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.999 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 143% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 49 NOTICE(S) FOR  245,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ AND NOW MAY:  18.225 MILLION OZ ..
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 12,786 CONTRACTS, TO 462,825 DESPITE THE  FALL IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(AN DECREASE IN PRICE OF $3.70//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 3268 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 8232 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS, JUNE 2020  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 462,825.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 20,152 CONTRACTS: 12,786 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 7366 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 20,152 CONTRACTS OR 2,015,200 OZ OR 62.68 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF ONLY  $3.70….AND WITH THAT FALL, WE  HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN TONNAGE OF 62.58 TONNES!!!!!!.?????????????????????????????????????????? 

AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS HAVE NOW SWITCHED TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

 

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ENTER A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI: 

“YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF  SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 41,650 CONTRACTS OR 4,165,000 OR 129.54 TONNES (7 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5950 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 129.54 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 129.54/3550 x 100% TONNES =3.64% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     1945.11 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 12,786 DESPITE THE FALL IN PRICING ($3.70) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A  HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7366 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7366 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 20,152 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7366 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 12,786 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 62.68 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN PRICE OF $3.70 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. NO DOUBT THAT A STRONG  PERCENTAGE OF OI GAIN WAS DUE TO THE CONTINUING OF THE SPREADING OPERATION AS I HAVE OUTLINED ABOVE.

 

 

 

we had:  5 notice(s) filed upon for 500 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $4.00  TODAY 

 

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE REACHED THE BOTTOM OF THE BARREL FOR PHYSICAL GOLD BEING SUPPLIED TO THE CROOKS.

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY:

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A TINY SIZED 685 CONTRACTS from 199,467 DOWN TO 198,782 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED THEIR LIQUIDATION IN SILVER BUT HAVE NOW MORPHED INTO GOLD..

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE:

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 0 FOR MAY, FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 730 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 730 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 685 CONTRACTS TO THE 730 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL GAIN OF 45 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 0.225 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL AND NOW 18.225 MILLION OZ FOR MAY

 

 

RESULT: A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 730 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  DOWN 42.80 POINTS OR 1.48%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 692.13 POINTS OR 2.39%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 200.46 POINTS OR 0.93%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .40%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8243 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 61.92 dollars per barrel for WTI and 70.47 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8243 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8483 TRADE TALKS STILL ON//TRUMP THREATENS A NEW 25% TARIFFS ON FRIDAY/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP THREATENS TO RAISE RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 China/Chinese affairs

i)China/USA/FED

Interesting:  China is playing hardball because they read us: namely that the USA economy is not doing too good.  Also the fact that Trump is asking the Fed’s Powell to lower interest rates is a powerful indicator that the uSA economy is waning.

( zerohedge)

ii)CHINA/FOREIGNERS

Foreigners are dumping Chinese stocks with reckless abandon as they are frightened ahead of the expected tariff increase.

( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

This is serious stuff:  The USA threatens the UK over their potential of Huawei in the 5G wireless space

( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

ii)Europe/Iran/USA

Trump’s plan to issue sanctions on Iran’s base metals industry is a stroke of genius. The aim is to cripple their domestic industry as over 600,000 Iranians are employed in this sector.  Europe is standing strong as they reject Iranian ultimatums on the nuclear deal.  Iran had given Europe a 60 day notice that they need sanctions relief or else…

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)ISRAEL GAZA/WEST BANK/PALESTINIANS

Israeli Newspaper leaks terms of Trump’s new Middle East Peace Plan between Israel, Gaza and the Palestinians in the West Bank. It is interesting but I doubt if Hamas in Gaza will entertain such a project

( Middle East Monitor)

ii)Iran/USA/Suez Canal
Tensions rise as the the Aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln passes through the Suez Canal en route to Iran.
(zerohedge)

iii)TURKEY

There is no question that Turkey is in deep trouble.  Firstly, Erdogan raised rates from 24% to 25.5% which just about kills off most corporates in Turkey.

The lira plummeted to 6.24 which causes citizens to bail on its currency as they desperate try to convert to dollars that which is in low supply.

Remember:  Turkey has about 11 billion in ture asset reserves of which gold, at 511 tonnes is around 24 billion dollars. Turkey will never sell an ounce of gold contrary to the doorknob Maduro in Venezuela. Turkey must face China and Russia and then default on its western assets.  This will break most of the European banks.

(courtesy zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

i)A good global Bellwether on the shape of economies and growth for the world.

( zerohedge)

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

VENEZUELA/USA

Trump now turns on Bolton for accusing him of trying to start a war in Venezuela according to the Washington Post

 

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

 

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//

a)Market trading: last night

“Trump last night:  China broke the deal and they will be paying..”

(zerohedge)

 

b)This morning
Stocks not happy this morning after the Chinese Media state that there is a zero chance of a trade deal
(courtesy zerohedge)
c)BEGINNING OF THE AFTERNOON:
Just what the Chinese needed; the FCC blocks China mobile from the USA market over espionage concerns
(courtesy zerohedge)

 

ii)Market data

a)The Fed are just not getting the inflation traction that they need: core PPI records its slowest growth in 11 months

( zerohedge)

b)The trade deficit was in line with expectations at 50 billion dollars.  However what is very disconcerting is that trade with China dropped hugely.  Then other bad news:  trade gap with Mexico rose by 9 billion dollars and the trade gap with Europe rose by $7 billion s to $14 billion dollars.
Trump is not winning exactly what Alasdair Macleod forecasted.  The USA is not “saving” and as such its trade deficit will not shrink despite the tariffs.
(zerohedge)

ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

 

SWAMP STORIES

So true:  where the USA is headed as we enter the 2020 election cycle.. Will the electorate see through the chaos created by the Democrats.

( Theodore Schatt)

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 12,786 CONTRACTS.TO A LEVEL OF 465,557 DESPITE THE LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($3.70) IN YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING) 

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7366 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

0 FOR JUNE ’19: 7366 CONTRACTS , DEC; 0 CONTRACTS: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7366 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 20,152 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7366 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 12,786 COMEX CONTRACTS.

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 20,152 contracts OR 2,015,200 OZ OR 62.68 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of MAY and here the open interest stands at 128 contracts, having LOST 2 contracts. We had 7 notices served yesterday so we gained 5 contracts or an additional 500  oz will stand as they guys refused to morph into a London based forward as well as negating a fiat bonus

The next contract month after May is June and here the open interest FELL by 1066 contracts DOWN to 282,238.  July GAINED 5 contracts to stand at 57.  After July the next active month is August and here the OI rose by 11,916 contracts up to 105,494 contracts.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 5 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  500  OZ. (0.0155 TONNES)

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A TINY SIZED 685 CONTRACTS FROM 199,467 DOWN TO 198,782(AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S TINY OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A  3 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.  HERE WE HAVE 366 OPEN INTEREST STAND SO FAR FOR A LOSS OF ONLY 133 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 152 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO IN ESSENCE WE GAINED ANOTHER  19 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 95,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. SILVER MUST BE SCARCE AT THE COMEX. QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE. WE HAVE NOW SURPASSED THE INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING WHICH OCCURED ON APRIL 30.2019

 

 

 

THE NEXT MONTH AFTER MAY IS THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF  JUNE.  HERE THIS MONTH GAINED 7 CONTRACTS UP TO 706. AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY, (THE SECOND LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR FOR SILVER) AND HERE THIS MONTH LOST 407 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 151,394 CONTRACTS. THE NEXT ACTIVE MONTH AFTER JULY FOR SILVER IS SEPTEMBER AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 175 UP TO 16,868 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 49 notice(s) filed for 245,000 OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  302,175  CONTRACTS 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  343,112  contracts

 

 

 

THE COMEX DATA FOR SOME REASON HAS NOT BEEN SUPPLIED BY THE CME BY THE TIME I USUALLY PUBLISH

THE DATA IS IMPORTANT AND I WILL UPDATE AS SOON AS IT ARRIVES FROM THE CROOKS.

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  MAY/GOLD

MAY 9 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
NIL
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
5 notice(s)
 500 OZ
(0.0155TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
123 contracts
(12300 oz)
0.3825 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
176 notices
17600 OZ
.5474 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else:  zero oz

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside/ again zero amount arrived  today

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

(maybe investors are taking our advice by not storing their gold at the comex.)

this will hurt our bankers as they need to replace leased gold as all gold stored at the gold comex is unallocated.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE RATS ARE FLEEING A SINKING SHIP!

Gold withdrawals;

i)  We had 0 withdrawals:

 

.

total gold withdrawals; NIL oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustments today

FOR THE MAY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 5 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 3 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (176) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (128 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (5 x 100 oz per contract) equals 29,900 OZ OR 0.9300 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of MAY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (176 x 100 oz)  + (128)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (5 x 100 oz )which equals 29,900 oz standing OR 0.9300 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of MAY.

We gained 5 contracts or an additional 500 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into a London based forwards. Queue jumping continues where we left off last month in gold and for that matter in silver.  We now have two precious metals undergoing queue jumping as the bankers scramble to obtain physical metal.

 

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 6.604 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 0.9300 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  212,322.479 oz or  6.604tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,702,775.662 oz 239.58 tonnes

 

 

FOR COMPARISON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR APRIL 2018 AND FINAL STANDING APRIL 30 2018

 

 

AT FIRST DAY NOTICE MAY 1 2018: WE HAD 1.284 TONNES OF GOLD STAND.  BY MONTH’S END:  2.27 TONNES AS WE HAD ONE QUEUE JUMPING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

IN THE LAST 31 MONTHS 116 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

MAY 9 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
9499.023 oz
DELAWARE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
NIL oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
49
CONTRACT(S)
(245,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
317 contracts
1,585,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3328 contracts

16,640,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 149.469 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.80% of all official comex silver. (149 million/305 million)

 

into  everybody else: nil  oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil oz

 

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of Delaware: 9400.023 oz

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 9400.023 oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

out of CNT:  4926.400 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

 

 

total dealer silver:  95.098 million

total dealer + customer silver:  307 338 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MAY 2019. contract month is represented by 49 contract(s) FOR  245,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3328 x 5,000 oz = 16,640,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (366) and the number of notices served upon today (49 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY/2019 contract month: 3328(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY( 366) -number of notices served upon today (49)x 5000 oz equals 18,225,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month.

We GAINED 19 contracts or an additional 195,000 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus for their efforts.

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON VS LAST YEAR:

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE APRIL 30/2018 (FOR THE MAY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH) WE HAD 24.11 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY.  BY MONTH END WE HAD HUGE QUEUE JUMPING AND THUS 36.285 MILLION OZ EVENTUALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  62,045 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 61,440 CONTRACTS..

 

..

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 61440 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 307 million  OZ 43.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -4.32% (MAY 9/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -2.26% to NAV (MAY 9/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.32%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.81 TRADING 12.27/DISCOUNT 4.23

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MAY 9//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 7/ WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $9.35 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.52

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD UP $4.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES//

APRIL 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.2//ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 746.69 TONNES TONNES

APRIL 25//WITH GOLD UP $.05 TODAY  (BASICALLY FLAT) NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

 

APRIL 24 WITH GOLD UP  $6.00 TODAY// TWO TRANSACTIONS: 1)A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD AND THEN II) ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

APRIL 23./WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES//

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD UP $1.75//A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT752.27 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES AT THE GLD WHICH WAS USED IN YESTERDAY’S RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 752.27 TONNES

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.03

APRIL 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $2.10 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757..85 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.45 AGAIN TODAY, THE CROOKS AGAIN RAIDED THE COOKE JAR BY 2.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.49 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40: THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 761.67 TONNES.

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD UP$1.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF PHYSICAL GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.55 TONNES

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.29 TONNES

APRIL 3:WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS: ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL: 3.81 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  764.29 TONNES

APRIL 2//WOW! WE LOST A WHOPPING 16.16 TONNES OF GOLD WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $1.80//INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.10

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

MAY 9/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 739.64 tonnes

*IN LAST 593 TRADING DAYS: 194.33 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 493 TRADING DAYS: A NET 28.49 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN LOST INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE REACHED THE BOTTOM OF THE BARREL FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE GLD.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///

MAY 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 891,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

MAY 3//WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 843,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/TOTAL INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.691 MILLION OZ//

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 13 CENTS, MIRACUOUSLY THE AUTHORITIES ADD 2.869 MILLION OZ OF SILVER BACK INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.848 MILLION OZ//

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ////

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 29/ WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 26//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 23./WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A SHOCKING 2.8122 MILLION PAPER OZ WERE ADDED INTO SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15: WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 12 WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 750,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ//

April 10/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:  THE CROOKS CANNOT RAID ANY SILVER BECAUSE THERE IS NONE: INVENTORY RETS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 4/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP TWO CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/ WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ FROM THE SLV TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167

 

 

 

MAY 9/2019:

 

Inventory 316.582 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.18/ and libor 6 month duration 2.58

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .40

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.47%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.71

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.24

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne
A  must 

 

GOLD SUPPRESSION IS “THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE WORLD TODAY” – CHRIS POWELL OF GATA

– GOLD PRICE SUPPRESSION is “the BIGGEST ISSUE in the WORLD … it involves the valuation of all capital, labor, goods and services in the world and these valuations are being set in a really imperialistic and totalitarian way and not in an open and transparent way & we think this is evil

WATCH INTERVIEW HERE

– Brief introduction to Chris Powell, Treasurer and Secretary of GATA and Bill Murphy of GATA and LeMetropoleCafe.com, two of the most important financial whistle blowers of recent years

– GATA’s tireless and courageous campaign for freely traded gold, silver and foreign exchange markets with little support from ‘Main Street, Wall Street, most of the gold industry and most of the media

RECEIVE LATEST GOLD & SILVER VIDEO NEWS UPDATES FROM GOLDCORE – SIGN UP HERE

– Why do central banks and “officialdom” manipulate gold and silver prices lower?

– “I could not be more disappointed with and contemptuous of 99% of the mainstream financial news organizations will not touch the issue of governments rigging markets”

– Voluminous evidence that GATA.org have amassed over the years have been published and sent to key financial press and media

– Central bankers and government insiders are on record re manipulation including Alan Greenspan- “Central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise.” Greenspan testified to Congress in July 1998

– “Joint intervention in gold sales to prevent a steep rise in the price of gold, however, was not undertaken. That was a mistake.” Paul Volcker, reflecting on an international currency revaluation in 1973 (wrote in memoirs published by the Nikkei Weekly in Japan in November 2004)

– History of gold throughout history, through to Roosevelt and Nixon going off the Gold Standard and the Gold Exchange Standard- History of suppression including the London Gold Pool, creation of gold futures market, Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), Working Group on Financial Markets aka the Plunge Protection Team (PPT)

– Grossly unfair for any one nation to have “exorbitant privilege” of the ability to issue the sole reserve currency exclusively as you could EXPROPRIATE THE WORLD THAT WAY” as was done by the Nazis in World War II. Primary mechanism of Nazi expropriation of Europe was monopolising the banking systems and currency rigging thus weakening the conquered nations currencies versus the Deutsche Mark

– The original must read book of Ferdinand Lips on the history of “Gold Wars” – the forerunner to Jim Rickards and his books including Currency Wars

– U.S. diplomatic cables were leaked by Wikileaks and one from an official in the British Embassy to the State Department stated that they had surveyed the bullion banks and they were of the view that if gold futures were started, “they would be able to inject so much volatility into the gold price that they could scare ordinary investors away from the precious metal”

– Gold trades completely counter intuitively and frequently falls with massive concentrated bouts of selling of gold futures (billions in seconds) frequently despite very positive gold news

– “Flash crashes” done “to get the price down” and therefore likely governments and central banks

– Recent developments including ‘Irish Cuban American’ Senator Mooney’s recent support for the GATA cause and questions to the CFTC, the FED and Treasury regarding government manipulation of the gold prices

– The CME Group, which operates the major futures exchanges in the U.S., has recently renewed what it calls its ‘central bank incentive program’, which gives enormous volume trading discounts to governments and central banks for surreptitiously trading all the futures markets. The CME group has created mechanisms for secret trading by governments to get discounts while trading gold and silver futures in the U.S.

– Follow GATA for the hugely important information imparted by them, subscribe, donate on GATA.org

WATCH INTERVIEW HERE
Avoid ‘.Com Gold’ – 7 Real Risks to Your Gold Ownership

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 
end

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

We brought this story to you yesterday but it is worth repeating.  China announces its 5th straight increase in reserves by 14.93 tonnes.  However they are not including all of the gold that they produce which is around 33 tonnes per month.  Eventually China will announce their true hoard.

(courtesy London’s Financial Times/Sanderson)



iii) Other Physical stories

-END-

Gold trading/

 

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.8243/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8483   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 32.63 POINTS OR 1.12%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 692.13 POINTS OR 2.39%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 200.46 POINTS OR 0.93%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED RED /

 

 

 

USA dollar index FALLS TO 97.60/Euro FALLS TO 1.1189

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.05/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.97/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 61.92 and Brent: 70.47

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO 06%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.67% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.96%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.73: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.52

3k Gold at $1283.35 silver at: 14.83   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 21/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.28

3m oil into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and 70 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.78 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0185 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1396 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.06%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.45% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.87%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.2307..they are toast

S&P Futures Tumble, Chinese Stocks Plunge As Tariffs Loom

Four words from Donald Trump during his Panama City Beach rally on Wednesday night is all it took for the rug to be pulled from under markets: “China broke the deal” Trump said with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on route to Washington for two days of talks, and then said another three to cement the sell-off: “They’ll be paying.” 

And though Trump added that “it will all work out”, Beijing warned it will retaliate should the U.S. hike tariffs as advertised at 12:01am on Thursday against Friday. With traders already extra jumpy in a week in which the trade war tide reversed unexpectedly and furiously, that’s all it took to accelerate this week’s slide in risk, and world shares tumbled for a fourth day running on Thursday, the result a sea of red amid global markets…

… with S&P500 futures dropping again on Thursday, sliding as much as 0.8% as the deadline approached for America and China to raise reciprocal tariffs.

If talks indeed fail to reach a deal, Washington is set to raise tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25% from 10% at 12:01 a.m. ET on Friday. Kazuhiko Fuji, senior fellow at RIETI, a Japanese government-affiliated think-tank, said the trade talks looked fragile.

I would suspect the U.S. will just hand China an ultimatum. No wonder the U.S. yield curve is almost inverting again,” he said.

“Markets remain on edge ahead of the Chinese vice premier’s visit to Washington today,” Rabobank analyst Bas van Geffen said. Doubt that this tariff increase can be avoided is growing,” he added as Goldman Sachs also put the chance of a hike at 60 percent.

“In the event of a complete breakdown in talks and higher tariffs, we would expect this to see U.S. stocks trade 10–15 percent below their highs and a fall of around 15–20 percent in the Chinese market,” Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer at Global Wealth Management at UBS, said.

With tariffs imminent barring a last minute miracle, the FT reported that US trade official said the additional tariffs on Chinese goods would apply to goods exported from Friday and will not include goods already in transit, which reports noted provides negotiators a window between 2-4 weeks before the full impact of higher tariffs.

As the flight from risk continued, Treasuries and the yen climbed with gold as investors sought havens, while the yuan fell to its weakest since January. European stock markets sank almost immediately after a torrid day for Asia. Europe’s Stoxx 600 hit session low shortly after the open, falling for the third time in four days, led lower by shares in cyclical sectors including automakers and miners, European tech stocks dropped as much as 1% dragged by a drop in semiconductor shares after Intel’s disappointing forecasts while banking stocks tumbled, with Banco BPM down 6.3% after disappointing quarterly results. The Stoxx 600 was down as much as 1.1%, its lowest level since March 29; the index has fallen 3.6% since hitting its peak in late April, on track to post its biggest weekly drop since December. There was broad based carnage in tech as well: wafer-maker Siltronic -3%, Infineon -2.6%, STMicro -2.6%, and AMS -1.6% all tumbled after Intel gave long-term forecasts for low, single-digit sales growth. Smaller European chip peer and Apple supplier Dialog Semiconductor gives up early gains to trade 0.3% lower after saying 2019 underlying revenue likely to decline this year.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell for a fourth day, headed for their largest decline in six weeks led by technology and material firms; the rout was led by China, whose Shanghai Composite – which is often seen as the bellwether for how this trade war hits home – tumbled 1.5% while South Korea plunged 3%.

Most Asian markets were down, with Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong leading declines. The Topix gauge fell 1.4%, led by Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. The Shanghai Composite Index closed 1.5% lower, with Kweichow Moutai Co. and Ping An Insurance Group Co. among the biggest drags. The S&P BSE Sensex Index declined as much as 1%, as Reliance Industries Ltd. and HDFC Bank Ltd. contributed the most to losses.

Further hurting sentiment was the latest credit data out of China, where April money and credit growth decelerated from the rebound in March, with new CNY loans and total social financing below expectations. Overnight, the PBOC reported that new CNY loans were RMB 1020bn in April, below the RMB 1200bn expected, while Total social financing increased only RMB 1360bn in April, well below the RMB 1650bn consensus. According to the PBOC, TSF stock growth was 10.4% yoy in April, vs. 10.7% yoy in March. The implied month-on-month growth of adjusted TSF was 9.2% SA ann, lower than 11.5% in March.

In addition to trade headlines, traders will also be closely watching the pricing on ride-hailing firm Uber’s initial public offering, which is set to be the biggest of the year so far.

In the currency market, the Japanese yen surged to a three-month high of 109.64 yen as one-week yen volatility surged to its strongest level in four months, while China’s yuan fell half a percent to hit a four-month low of 6.838 and was headed for its worst four-day decline in a year as Australia’s currency falls on weak China credit growth data. A hawkish Norges Bank saw the krone climb against the euro even as faltering risk sentiment and depressed oil prices limited gains, after the central bank signaled a June rate hike. The pound was on track to wipe out last week’s advance against the euro as a Brexit deal resolution still proves elusive. Losses in sterling were limited as Prime Minister Theresa May earned a stay of execution from her Conservative Party.

In geopolitical news, following initial reports that North Korea had fired an unidentified projectile, further reports indicate this this was likely 2 short-range missiles. Prior to the further reports South Korea stated that it is unclear whether North Korea fired single or multiple projectiles.

In rates, Treasury 10-year notes jumped due to the escalation in risk-aversion, just hours after Wednesday’s auction saw the weakest demand for the benchmark bond in a decade. The yield spread between three-month U.S. government bonds and the 10-year notes shrank to 3 basis points, compared with about 15 basis points a few weeks ago. The spread first turned negative in late March, spooking investors, who read the development as portending a recession. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield stood at 2.4529%, having touched its lowest level in five weeks of 2.426 percent on Wednesday before an especially poor 10Y auction sent the yield surging.

Commodity markets also felt the U.S.-China trade strains according to Reuters. Brent crude futures dropped 0.6 percent to $69.92 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also retreated 0.6 percent to $61.75 despite a surprise fall in U.S. crude stockpiles. London copper hit its lowest in nearly three months, going as low as $6,111 a tonne.

Expected data include PPIs, trade balance, jobless claims, and inventories. Canadian Natural Resources, Hydro One, Dropbox, and Yelp are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.8% to 2,864.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 379.05
  • MXAP down 1.4% to 156.55
  • MXAPJ down 1.8% to 515.76
  • Nikkei down 0.9% to 21,402.13
  • Topix down 1.4% to 1,550.71
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.4% to 28,311.07
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.5% to 2,850.95
  • Sensex down 0.8% to 37,474.17
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 6,295.33
  • Kospi down 3% to 2,102.01
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to -0.059%
  • Euro down 0.07% to $1.1184
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 2.243%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 0.956%
  • Brent futures down 0.3% to $70.15/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,285.02
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.58

Top Overnight News

  • U.S. President Donald Trump declared China’s leaders “broke the deal” he was negotiating with them on trade, before adding that “it will work out.” Chinese state media warned that “fighting while talking” may become the new normal in trade relations with the U.S
  • China’s credit growth slowed more than expected in April after record expansion in the first quarter
  • North Korea fired at least one unidentified projectile Thursday, South Korean military officials said, in the country’s second test launch of weapons in less than a week
  • The Bank of Japan will quickly consider additional easing steps if risks such as protectionist moves by the world’s two largest economies wipe out upward price momentum in Japan, its Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said
  • U.K. Prime Minister won a reprieve from her Tory party after a key panel of lawmakers kept the rules on leadership challenges unchanged. May agreed to meet with the executive of the so-called 1922 Committee of Tory Members of Parliament next week to discuss her future
  • Theresa May earned a stay of execution from her Conservative Party after a key panel of lawmakers kept the rules on leadership challenges unchanged, as talks with the opposition Labour Party to find a compromise on Brexit gained new life
  • The U.S. Treasury on Wednesday saw the weakest demand for its benchmark 10-year note in a decade, illustrating the diminishing appetite among some investors to accept current yields
  • Trump issued an executive order on Wednesday prohibiting the purchase of Iranian iron, steel, aluminum and copper, ratcheting up tensions with the Islamic Republic less than a day after it declared it may begin enriching uranium again in two months
  • House price growth in the U.K. remained weak in April as the slump in southeast England and London depressed the market, the latest survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors showed

Asian equity markets were mostly negative as US-China trade uncertainty kept global risk sentiment cautious ahead of trade talks in Washington and as the region also digested a heavy slate of corporate earnings, as well as mixed Chinese data. Nonetheless, ASX 200 (+0.4%) was the exception due to corporate updates. Nikkei 225 (-0.9%) was weighed by currency effects and with individual stocks driven by a plethora of earnings releases, while Hang Seng (-2.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.5%) were the worst hit on trade concerns after the US issued a notice confirming that tariffs will be increased on Friday and with China’s Mofcom mulling counter measures. There was also some sabre rattling from US President Trump who alleged that China broke the deal in trade talks and warned to not backdown until China stops cheating US workers, otherwise the US will not do business with them. Furthermore, overnight data releases were mixed in which Chinese CPI printed inline and PPI topped forecasts, although lending data disappointed with both New Yuan Loans and Aggregate Financing below expectations. Finally, 10yr JGBs initially saw mild upside on the risk averse tone and with the BoJ present in the market focused in the belly. However, the gains were later pared amid mixed comments from BoJ Governor Kuroda who reiterated to continue with powerful monetary easing under YCC given that inflation is still below target, but noted that JGB purchases are slowing and suggested that even if BoJ bond purchases slow to JPY 30tln annually, it would not cause huge trouble.

Top Asian News

  • Bahrain Is Set to Receive $2.3 Billion From Allies in 2019
  • Singapore’s First 2019 Mainboard IPO Falls in Trading Debut

European bourses have succumbed to the risk aversion [Eurostoxx 50 -1.0%] seen in Asia and Wall Street, with the downbeat tone exacerbated by reports of further missiles tests in North Korea. Sectors are largely lower with the exception of defensive sectors such as Utilities (Unch) and Consumer Staples (+0.2%). A few themes are in play today; 1) a guidance cut by Intel yesterday has prompted a sell-off in European chip names with Infineon (-2.8%) and STMicroelectronics (-2.8%) shares plumbing the depths, albeit Dialog Semiconductor (+0.2%) is bucking the trend on the back of optimistic earnings. 2) Mining names bear the brunt of sentiment-subdued base metal prices coupled with ArcelorMittal’s (-3.9%) 33% drop in profits, thus Rio Tinto (-0.9%), Antofagasta (-1.3%) and Glencore (-1.8%) all weigh on the sector. 3) Against the backdrop of weaker auto earnings, Continental (-3.2%) also reported dismal numbers which dragged its peers Michelin (-0.9%) and Pirelli (-1.2%) lower in sympathy. Finally, Renault (-2.0%) shares declined amid press reports that Nissan could lower its 2022 guidance. Back to earnings, some analysis from JPM notes that thus far, 55% of the Stoxx 600 companies topped EPS estimates (vs. 76% in the S&P 500) whilst 58% of firms are beating on topline with sales growth at 1% Y/Y (vs. +5% Y/Y in the S&P 500), “This is consistent with our view that sales growth in Europe would underwhelm relative to the US, given the weaker macro momentum in the region” JPM says.

Top European News

  • Continental AG Sees China Auto Rebound Boosting Second Half
  • Norges Bank Says It Will ‘Most Likely’ Raise Rates in June
  • Airbus 320 Makes Emergency Landing in Sweden After Cabin Smoke
  • SocGen Introduces Crypto to $2 Trillion Market for Covered Bonds

In FX, demand for the Yen remains fervent and the Franc is also back in favour as tensions rise ahead of the US/China face-off in Washington, while geopolitical factors are also weighing on sentiment given the US-EU-Iran sanctions dispute and NK firing an unidentified projectile. Hence, Usd/Jpy has retreated a bit further from 110.00+ to fill/trip a few stops between 109.75-70 and test the top end of decent option expiry interest spanning 109.60-50, while Usd/Chf and Eur/Chf have pulled back from 1.0200+ and 1.1400 respectively.

  • USD – Notwithstanding the greater appeal for safer-havens noted above, the Dollar retains a firm underlying bid vs the other G10s and especially EMs that are suffering in their own right. Indeed, the DXY continues to find support below 97.500 and its 30 DMA (97.398) with the index currently hovering in a 97.702-517 range.
  • AUD – The major underperformer and most prone to the threat of a complete breakdown in US-China trade dialogue that would trigger an exchange of more aggressive tit-for-tat tariffs. Aud/Usd has recoiled from recent recovery highs towards this week’s multi-month low around 0.6963 and Aud/NZD has unwound more post-RBNZ spike gains to sub-1.0600 as Nzd/Usd holds more comfortably above 0.6550 and depths plunged in wake of Wednesday’s NZ rate cut. On that note, Governor Orr has reiterated that the policy outlook is now more neutral and it is too soon to assess if more easing is required ahead of testimony on the latest meeting and action to a parliamentary select committee.
  • NOK – Staying with the Central Bank theme, but in stark contrast to the RBNZ, Norway’s Norges Bank flagged a hike at next month’s meeting and the Nok shot up across the board in response. However, gains were rapidly eroded and reversed at one stage amidst the aforementioned risk-averse tone before the Norwegian Crown regained bullish momentum on the fact that rates are set to rise against the general global grain of steady to easier policy. Eur/Nok is back under 9.8000, albeit just within 9.7784-8393 trading parameters and eyeing hefty expiry interest (1.1 bn) at the strike.
  • EUR/GBP/CAD – All narrowly mixed vs the Greenback, but with a bearish bias below 1.1200, 1.3000 and only just over 1.3500 respectively. Eur/Usd has multi-bn expiries stretching from 1.1150 to 1.1200 and beyond to keep price movement contained along with the 30 DMA (1.1223) and interim chart support at 1.1155, while Cable has gleaned some traction around a Fib (1.2980) and ahead of the 200 DMA (1.2960), but needs to recapture the 100 DMA (1.3013) to revisit best levels of 1.3025. Back to the Loonie, Canadian trade data looms alongside house prices.
  • EM – More widespread losses vs the Usd, but once again the Try is underperforming and has been down to through 6.2450 with the Lira lamenting another decline in Turkish foreign reserves.

In commodities, Brent (-0.5%) and WTI (-0.4%) prices are choppy, with prices initially subdued amid the general risk sentiment as markets await US-China updates and the most recent geopolitical developments being reports that North Korea has fired an unidentified projectile at 16:30 local time, although it is still unknown whether it was a single or multiple projectiles. Despite the recent price action being sentiment-driven, the macro picture still stands, with Iranian/Venezuelan sanctions, Libyan tensions and OPEC-led cuts still on the table. Thus, Barclays revised their Q3 2019 Brent and WTI forecasts higher by USD 4/bbl amid expectations of tightening market conditions. In terms of US supply, ING highlights that refinery run rate remain at a season-low at 88.9% last week amid a heavier maintenance season alongside several unplanned outages. Meanwhile, gold (+0.3%) has been accumulating some risk premium in light of the aforementioned developments in the Korean peninsula whilst conversely, copper is pressured by the humdrum risk tone emanating from the seemingly escalating US-Sino tensions and geopolitical concerns. Finally, China State Planner stated that strict pollution related controls will be imposed on steel-making capacity in key pollution area whilst also raising domestic iron ore production. It’s worth noting that earlier in March, a level 1 smog alert was issued which requires steel mills to curb production by 40-70%. Although, it is worth assuming that iron ore production will be hiked to offset volatility in the base metal. China’s State Planner state they will impose strict controls on steel-making capacity in key pollution areas.

Looking at the day ahead, we will get the April PPI report where the market consensus is pegged at +0.2% mom for the core. Expect there to be focus on the health care and portfolio management services components of the report as a read-through for the core PCE deflator. Away from that we’ll also get the latest claims reading and March trade balance print, followed later by the final March wholesale inventories revisions. Away from that we’re due to hear from the ECB’s Hakkarainen while over at the Fed, Powell is scheduled to speak in the early afternoon, albeit only opening remarks with no Q&A to follow. The Fed’s Bostic and Evans also speak today.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.6%; YoY, est. 2.3%, prior 2.2%
    • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%, YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.4%
  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $50.1b deficit, prior $49.4b deficit
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,000, prior 230,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.67m, prior 1.67m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey; Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 60.4
  • 10am: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.55%, prior 0.3%;  Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.0%, prior 0.0%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As US/China trade and Brexit talks looked increasingly more vulnerable yesterday at least here in the UK we had the first glance of a new royal baby to distract us. I was disappointed he was named Archie rather than Divock after Liverpool’s Tuesday night heroics which have still yet to fully sink in. As it stands I have a one-way flight to Madrid booked and no final tickets. I also haven’t run the idea of a weekend away watching football by my wife yet. I thought I’d work on this in stages. Flight out first (only tick so far), ticket second, flight back third, accommodation next (but I could camp) and then ask permission. No point asking permission and firing a bullet if you can’t logistically do it. If Liverpool’s performance was astonishing one would have to say Spurs also coming back from 3-0 down in the tie at HT against Ajax last night and winning on away goals deep in injury time was also remarkable. My long-time work colleague Nick Burns is a Spurs season ticket holder and entitled to final tickets and as I reserved him an flight to the final yesterday just in case I will assume he’s reserved me a ticket this morning. This morning could be the defining moment in his 2019 appraisal.

Outside of the knowledge of the craziness of sport, the last 24-48 hours has taught us that markets have no greater insight as to whether this week’s trade developments are just hardball from Trump or the start of a very real threat to the global growth narrative. If it’s the latter then you can’t help but feel that markets look extremely complacent at this point. However if it’s just hardball negotiation en route to a deal then we’ll likely resume the rally. A big bid offer admittedly, but in the very short term the risks probably look greater than the rewards as it feels unlikely that either side can back down in the near term. Maybe over weeks but not over the next few days.

At the time of writing, China’s top trade negotiator Liu He is flying over to Washington DC for talks with Lighthizer and Mnuchin. Time is not on China’s side though with tariffs due to kick in in a little under 24 hours after the Office of the US Trade Representative yesterday signed off that tariffs on $200bn of China goods are to be raised on Friday morning at 12:01am ET.

In line with the back-and-forth newsflow, markets slipped between gains and losses before ending the US session slightly lower. Just four minutes before the Office of Trade statement in late morning US time, President Trump tweeted that China were “coming to the US to make a deal” which appeared to at least hold some hope of optimism in markets. A bigger boost came after White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said that the White House had received an “indication” that China is ready to make a deal. Within half an hour, however, a commerce department statement from China said that “The US intends to raise the tariff of 200 billion US dollars of Chinese exports to the United States from 10% to 25% on May 10. The escalation of trade friction is not in the interests of the people of the two countries and the people of the world. The Chinese side deeply regrets that if the US tariff measures are implemented, China will have to take necessary countermeasures.”

Overnight, while addressing a rally in Panama City Beach, Florida, President Trump has said that China’s leaders “broke the deal” he was negotiating with them on trade and added there’s “nothing wrong with taking in $100 billion a year” in tariffs on Chinese imports, in the absence of a trade deal. However, he also said, “they come in tomorrow and whatever happens, don’t worry about it. It will work out. It always does.” Elsewhere, the WSJ has reported that China’s Vice Premier Liu He is not carrying the title of President Xi’s “Special Envoy” while visiting the US for trade negotiations and this means that he cannot make any big concessions. China’s Global Times is also reporting this morning that China wont flinch in the face of a tough-talking US and is likening the trade talks to a “Banquet at Hongmen”, a Chinese reference to a historical event that took place in 206 BC at Hong Gate and implies a treacherous situation. So emotions and rhetoric are being raised in both sides. It should be worth watching China’s regular ministry of commerce briefing at 03:00 pm Beijing time (08:00 am London) to get further insight into the situation.

All nice and straightforward then. The end result to the conflicting headlines yesterday was a bit of volatility for the S&P 500 just before Europe went home, opening -0.37% lower before rallying to +0.47%, but ultimately closing -0.15% after a sharp late drop. That leaves May’s returns at a still pretty mild -2.24% though considering all that has gone on. The VIX touched an intraday high of 21.74 yesterday though – a level it hasn’t closed at since January 3 – before ending at 19.92, trading in a range of 3.5pts. That’s the third consecutive day with a range of over 3pts, the first such stretch since January 4. The NASDAQ fell -0.26% and the DOW traded flat (+0.01%), while in Europe the STOXX 600 finished +0.15% after spending the bulk of the session in the red.

Meanwhile, bond markets couldn’t quite make their minds up yesterday with 10y Treasury yields rising +2.7bps, +5.9bps off the morning low but 2bps lower again in Asia. The 3m10y curve steepened +1.9bps yesterday, taking it back to +5.8bps after flirting with another inversion over the last few sessions. The 2y10y is still hovering around 18.3bps and the reality is that this has been in a broad 10-20bp range ever since December. Bunds have been more of a beneficiary of the risk-off moves, hitting an intraday low of -0.065% yesterday before closing at -0.044% as risk rallied back into the European close. For reference, the recent low mark for Bunds was -0.095% on an intraday basis back at the end of March. BTPs have been caught up in the broader risk off move – with the recent budget headlines also not helping – though they retraced their +7.7bps intraday move yesterday to end the session flat. Elsewhere EM FX traded flat overall, with the Turkish lira again underperforming (-0.56%) as the government announced plans to re-hold the Istanbul elections. Balancing this was a +0.26% rally by the South African rand, as the country held national elections yesterday, with the results due this morning.

This morning in China we saw the release of April aggregate financing data which came in at CNY 1,360bn (vs. 1,650bn expected and 2,859.3bn last month) with new loans standing at CNY 1,020bn (vs. 1,200bn expected and 1,690bn last month). Weakness in China’s credit data along with the possibility of further escalations in the trade war is continuing to weigh on Asian markets with the Nikkei (-1.01%), Hang Seng (-1.95%), CSI (-1.90%), Shanghai Comp (-1.35%), Shenzhen Comp (-1.03%) and Kospi (-1.67%) all down over -1% alongside most Asian markets. China’s onshore yuan is down -0.39% to 6.8090, the weakest since January. Other EM Fx is also trading weak this morning with the exception of Turkish Lira which is up +0.37% while the Korean won is leading losses (-0.56%). G10 Fx is also weak with the exception of the Japanese yen which is up +0.14%. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.53% and crude oil prices (WTI and Brent both down -0.74%) are also weak. In terms of other data releases China’s April CPI came in line with consensus at +2.5% yoy while PPI stood at +0.9% yoy (vs. +0.6% yoy expected).

In other news, cross-party talks between the Conservatives and Labour continued yesterday but finding common ground remains elusive. In the meantime, the BBC has reported this morning that Labour Party’s Jeremy Corbyn is set to launch his European elections campaign later and will say that the party backs “the option of a public vote” if a “sensible” Brexit deal cannot be agreed and there is not a general election. Elsewhere Prime Minister May looks set to survive for at least another week as the 1922 committee failed to agree on any changes to Conservative party rules at this week’s meeting. The 1922 head Graham Brady said he expects May to hold a vote on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill next week, which could possibly still leave time to exit the European Union before the European Parliament elections but that is looking very very unlikely.

Back to the US and Fed Governor Brainard made some headlines yesterday by expressing interest in a form of yield curve control as a future policy option. She said “we might turn to targeting slightly longer-term interest rates — initially one-year interest rates, for example, and if more stimulus is needed, perhaps moving out the curve to two-year rates.” This would potentially allow the Fed to better signal how long it plans to keep rates low. Such tools could be needed in a future recession if short-term interest rates again approach zero.

Oil prices rose +1.101% before this morning’s fall as tensions between the US and Iran continued to intensify and the outlook for Iranian oil exports continues to darken. First, Iran announced that it is also withdrawing from the nuclear deal, following the US’s move exactly one year ago. While the Iranian government did not declare an intention to renege on all the deal’s elements, they did announce their plans to resume stockpiling low enriched uranium and heavy water, and signalled that they would resume construction of a closed reactor if Europe fails to compensate for the US’s unilateral sanctions. That comes after news that Europe’s mechanism to avoid US sanctions, which reportedly would have allowed Iran to export more oil, will actually only apply to food and humanitarian aid. Finally, the US administration followed up by adding new sanctions to Iran’s iron, steel, aluminium, and copper industries.

Before we wrap up, the data yesterday included a better than expected March industrial production print in Germany (+0.5% mom vs. -0.5% expected) albeit somewhat offset by downward revisions to February. In the UK the Halifax house price index rose +1.1% mom in April and more than expected. US mortgage applications rose +2.7% last week, the first rise since March.

Finally to the day ahead, where there are no data releases due in Europe this morning however in the US this afternoon we will get the April PPI report where the market consensus is pegged at +0.2% mom for the core. Expect there to be focus on the health care and portfolio management services components of the report as a read-through for the core PCE deflator. Away from that we’ll also get the latest claims reading and March trade balance print, followed later by the final March wholesale inventories revisions. Away from that we’re due to hear from the ECB’s Hakkarainen while over at the Fed, Powell is scheduled to speak in the early afternoon, albeit only opening remarks with no Q&A to follow. The Fed’s Bostic and Evans also speak today.

 

end

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  DOWN 42.80 POINTS OR 1.48%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 692.13 POINTS OR 2.39%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 200.46 POINTS OR 0.93%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .40%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8243 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 61.92 dollars per barrel for WTI and 70.47 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8243 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8483 TRADE TALKS STILL ON//TRUMP THREATENS A NEW 25% TARIFFS ON FRIDAY/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP THREATENS TO RAISE RATES TO 25%

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA
end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

end

3 C CHINA/CHINESE AFFAIRS

i)China/USA/FED

Interesting:  China is playing hardball because they read us: namely that the USA economy is not doing too good.  Also the fact that Trump is asking the Fed’s Powell to lower interest rates is a powerful indicator that the uSA economy is waning.

(courtesy zerohedge)

How Trump’s Attacks On Powell Led To Collapse Of China Trade Talks

In what will almost certainly be remembered as one of the most chaotic weeks for global markets in recent memory due to the unceasing flow of trade news, global stocks were back in risk-off mode Thursday after a seemingly offhanded remark by President Trump during a MAGA rally last night doused the sense of optimism that had prevailed earlier in the day.

But with the Chinese delegation having arrived in Washington, more reports published late Wednesday and early Thursday have offered new insights into why Beijing decided to play hardball, and how Washington is planning to show that it means business while stopping short of torpedoing any accumulated goodwill with new tariffs.

Trade

Though paperwork filed by the Trade Representative’s office on Wednesday suggests that tariffs will almost certainly rise on Friday, the administration has apparently come up with an important caveat that could allow negotiators more time: The new tariff rates won’t apply to goods already in transit, which would give negotiators up to a month to work out a deal before the new rates take effect, according to the FT.

The clarification offers US and Chinese negotiators a window of two to four weeks to reach a deal before the bulk of the pain from the higher tariffs hits US consumers and businesses, based on shipping times between the countries.

On Wednesday morning, Mr Trump noted on Twitter that Mr Liu was still coming to the US capital to “make a deal.”

The president’s latest tweets were posted just before the US equity markets were set to open after two days of losses driven by the flare-up in trade tensions with China. US stocks were volatile but trading slightly higher on Wednesday compared to earlier in the week.

Meanwhile, in a lengthy piece purporting to explain why Beijing decided to start playing ‘hardball’ so late into the talks (though, to be sure, other reports suggest that Beijing had taken a hard line almost from the start), WSJ claimed that President Xi and the senior leadership interpreted Trump’s attacks on Fed Chairman Jay Powell as a sign that Trump would be ready to compromise.

The reason? It was interpreted as evidence that Trump secretly believed the US economy was more fragile than the official data reflected. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy has stabilized, in part thanks to a massive stimulus program.

Beijing was further emboldened by Trump’s professions of ‘friendship’ with Xi, and his praise for Liu. Then, an April 30 Trump tweet praising Chinese economic policy cemented this view, according to WSJ’s sources.

An analyst quoted in the WSJ piece offers an apt summary: “Why would you be constantly asking the Fed to lower rates if your economy is not turning week?”

That’s a great question. We’re still waiting for an explanation on that one.

A spokesman for MOFCOM on Thursday rejected US accusations that Beijing had reneged on its promises, which is what allegedly prompted Trump’s tariff threats. Beijing has vowed to retaliate to any new tariffs out of Washington, but the takeaway from Thursday’s reports is that even if a deal doesn’t happen Friday (which it almost certainly won’t), the trade negotiations will remain an intense market focus for at least the next two weeks, until the new rates take effect.

At any rate, we imagine the WSJ report was at least a small consolation to Powell, who has now been partially vindicated for his slightly hawkish tilt during the post-FOMC press conference earlier this month.

END

CHINA/FOREIGNERS

Foreigners are dumping Chinese stocks with reckless abandon as they are frightened ahead of the expected tariff increase.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Foreigners Are Dumping Chinese Stocks At A Record Pace Ahead Of Tariffs

Having surged to over a 30% gain this year, far ahead of Europe and US markets, Chinese stocks have dramatically weakened back to EU,US stocks in the last few weeks.

China’s initial weakness was likely triggered by local officials comments on exuberance and actions to rein in some of the margin surge that always seems to occur when the Chinese investing population discover a trend.

However, as the trend broke, another set of investors has decided to exit the burning building – foreigners!

“Offshore investors chose to lock in profits given the great uncertainty in Sino-U.S. relations,” said Li Bin, a Shanghai-based fund manager at Capital Corise Asset Management Co.

“The bigger declines on the SSE 50 index might be a result of consistent foreign outflows.” The SSE 50 has fallen 8.4% this week, while the Shanghai Composite Index is down 7.4%.

Foreign investors net sold an average 4.4 billion yuan ($646 million) of mainland shares a day through trading links with Hong Kong this week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

They are on track for the heaviest week of selling since the Shenzhen connect opened in late 2016…

The exodus extends a trend from April, which saw net sales of 18 billion yuan, a monthly record

Of course, this could all change by this time tomorrow as Liu arrives in DC and US tariffs hit (and possible China retaliatory tariffs).

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

This is serious stuff:  The USA threatens the UK over their potential of Huawei in the 5G wireless space

(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

US Threatens UK Over Huawei And 5G Wireless

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

US Sec. of State Mike Pompeo warns the UK about 5G wireless. Pompeo threatens to end defense cooperation with the UK.

Via the Guardian Live Blog, Pompeo warns the UK that Huawei 5G role could put defense cooperation with US at risk.

Here are the main points from the press conference given by Mike Pompeo, the US secretary of state, and Jeremy Hunt, the UK foreign secretary.

Pompeo implied that the UK could put defense cooperation with the US at risk if it allowed Huawei a role in operating its 5G infrastructure. In his opening remarks Pompeo said:

We discussed at some length the importance of secure 5G networks. I will have a little more to say on that this afternoon, but I’m confident that each of our two nations will choose a path which will ensure security of our networks.

Then, when asked if a decision by the UK to allow Huawei a role in constructing its 5G infrastructure, would affect the special relationship, he replied:

I have great confidence that the United Kingdom will never take an action that will break the special relationship.

With respect to 5G, we will continue to have technical discussions. We are making our views very well known from America’s perspective.

Each country has a sovereign right to make its own decision about how to deal with the challenge.

The United States has an obligation to ensure that, [in] places where we operate, places where American information is, places where we have our national security risks, that they operate inside trusted networks. And that’s what we will do.

Pompeo Hammers Jeremy Corbyn

Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn is a socialist who admires former Venezuela leader Hugo Chavez. Pompeo had this to say.

It is disgusting to see leaders, not only in the United Kingdom but in the United States as well, who continue to support the murderous dictator Maduro.

It is not in either of our country’s best interests for those leaders to continue to advocate on their behalf. The Venezuelan people have spoken through their constitutional mechanism. They have put Juan Guaido as their interim president, and he is the duly elected leader there. And Maduro is on borrowed time.

Hunt Agrees

This is a country where three million people have fled the country, GDP has gone down by 40% in the last four years, people can’t access basic medicine, people are rifling through rubbish bags to get food in the streets. [Shadow chancellor] John McDonnell describes this as socialism in action and I think people need to draw their own conclusions about what his own plans might be for the UK.

Yes, this is the same Labour Party leader that Theresa May is in bed with to deliver Brexit.

5G Issues

In regards to 5G the US is woefully behind. Security threats may be overblown.

Because much of Europe is on previous versions of Huawei, there is a clear backward compatible way forward, but only if those nations using Huawei select its option as the way forward. Otherwise, it may take years to upgrade, and possibly to inferior technology.

For further discussion of 5G issues, please see:

  1. EU Pokes Trump Again, This Time Over Huawei’ s 5G Technology
  2. Trump Tweets Promote US 5G “Even 6G” ASAP

Ultimately, the EU nations and the UK will make their own decisions. Some of them will undoubtedly select Huawei.

Expect Trump to fume.

 

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/GAZA/WEST BANK/PALESTINIANS

Israeli Newspaper leaks terms of Trump’s new Middle East Peace Plan between Israel, Gaza and the Palestinians in the West Bank. It is interesting but I doubt if Hamas in Gaza will entertain such a project

(courtesy Middle East Monitor)

Israeli Newspaper Leaks Terms Of Trump’s “Deal Of The Century” Middle-East Peace Plan

Via Middle East Monitor,

The main points of US President Donald Trump’s much-derided plan for the Middle East, the so-called “deal of the century,” were leaked by a Hebrew-language news outlet in Israel yesterday. Israel Hayom published the main points of the deal from a leaked document circulated by the Israeli Foreign Ministry.

The US has said it will reveal its deal after the Muslim month of fasting comes to an end in early June.

The main points of the agreement put together by Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner – who has extensive interests in Israel and its settlements – and proposed by the US administration are as follows:

  • A tripartite agreement will be signed between Israel, the PLO and Hamas, and a Palestinian state will be established that will be called “New Palestine” and will be established in the occupied West Bank and Gaza, with the exception of the settlements. Israel would release Palestinian prisoners gradually over the course of three years under the deal.
  • The settlement blocs in the occupied West Bank, which are illegal under international law, would form part of Israel.
  • Jerusalem will not be divided but is to be shared by Israel and the “New Palestine” with Israel maintaining general control.
  • Palestinians living in Jerusalem would be citizens of the Palestinian state but Israel would remain in charge of the municipality and therefore the land. The newly formed Palestinian state would pay taxes to the Israeli municipality in order to be in charge of education in the city for Palestinians.
  • The status quo at the holy sites will remain and Jewish Israelis will not be allowed to buy Palestinian houses and vice versa.

Partition of Jerusalem? Let my people in! – Cartoon [Sabaaneh/MiddleEastMonitor]

  • Egypt will offer the new Palestinian state land to build an airport, factories and for agriculture which will service the Gaza Strip. Palestinians will not be permitted to live on this land.
  • A highway would be built to connect the Gaza Strip to the West Bank 30 metres above Israel. Funding for the project will mainly come from China, which will pay 50 per cent of the cost, with South Korea, Australia, Canada, the US and EU each paying a ten per cent each.

Deal sponsors

The US, EU and Gulf states would fund and sponsor the deal for five years to establish the state of “New Palestine”, the leak claims.

This would be at a cost of $6 billion a year; the majority of which -70 per cent – would be paid by Gulf states, with the US contributing 20 per cent and the EU ten per cent.

When the Arab World sells the Holy City – Cartoon [Sabaaneh/MiddleEastMonitor]

  • “New Palestine” would not be allowed to form an army but could maintain a police force.  Instead, a defence agreement will be signed between Israel and the “New Palestine” in which Israel would defend the new state from any foreign attacks.
  • Upon signing the agreement, Hamas will hand over all its weapons to Egypt. The movement’s leaders would be compensated and paid salaries by Arab states while a government is established.
  • Elections are expected to be held within one year of the establishment of the “New Palestine” state.
  • All borders between the Gaza Strip and Egypt and Israel would remain open to people and goods and Palestinians would be able to use Israeli air and seaports.
  • “New Palestine” will have two crossings into Jordan, these will be under the control of the “New Palestine” authorities.
  • The Jordan Valley will remain in Israel’s hands and a four-lane toll road will be built through it.

What Ifs?

  • If Hamas or any Palestinian bodies refuse this deal, the US will cancel all of its financial support to the Palestinians and pressure other countries to do the same.
  • If, on the other hand, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas signs the deal but Hamas and Islamic Jihad do not agree to it, a war would be waged on the Gaza Strip with the full backing of the US.
  • However, if Israel refuses the deal the US would cease its financial support. The US currently pays $3.8 billion a year to support Israel.
end
Iran/USA/Suez Canal
Tensions rise as the the Aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln passes through the Suez Canal en route to Iran.
(zerohedge)

Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln Passes Through Suez Canal On Route To Iran As Tensions Soar

the treaty’s signatories abide by their commitments to buy oil and offer other financial relief, something that American sanctions have rendered impossible.

Iran

But in what appears to be an attempt to show Tehran that it’s not bluffing, Washington has committed to another threatening display of force. Reuters reports that the USS Abraham Lincoln, which had been dispatched to the Mediterranean last week amid worsening tensions with Iran, has passed through the Suez Canal, the first stop in what appears to be a journey into Iranian waters.

  • U.S. AIRCRAFT CARRIER ABRAHAM LINCOLN, SENT AS WARNING TO IRAN, PASSES THROUGH EGYPT’S SUEZ CANAL – CANAL AUTHORITY

The report cited the Canal Authority as its main source.

Suez

Last night, Trump issued a statement affirming that the relationship with Iran is “broken beyond repair” and placed new sanctions on Iran’s industrial metals sector.

Meanwhile, the Iranians have dismissed Washington’s dispatching of the aircraft carrier and several B-52 bombers to the region.

The Iranians have warned that they would retaliate if US forces get too close – possibly by blocking off the critical Strait of Hormuz (vital to the global oil trade) or responding with violence. If the aircraft carrier is indeed heading for the Persian Gulf, the situation could swiftly spiral out of control.

end

Europe/Iran/USA

Trump’s plan to issue sanctions on Iran’s base metals industry is a stroke of genius. The aim is to cripple their domestic industry as over 600,000 Iranians are employed in this sector.  Europe is standing strong as they reject Iranian ultimatums on the nuclear deal.  Iran had given Europe a 60 day notice that they need sanctions relief or else…

(courtesy zerohedge)

Europe Rejects Iran “Ultimatums” Following Tehran’s “60-Day Notice” On Sanctions Relief

The European Union says it rejects any ultimatums issued by Iran, saying in a statement that it won’t bend to threats that Tehran will break from the nuclear deal and begin enriching uranium unless European signatories uphold their commitments within 60 days.

Citing frustration that the EU is not pulling its weight in the face of tightening US sanctions, Iran’s leaders said Wednesday it would stop its disposal of excessive heavy water and uranium, a key compliance term under the JCPOA.

“We strongly urge Iran to continue to implement its commitments under the JCPoA in full as it has done until now and to refrain from any escalatory steps,” the EU officials said in a statement. The EU, UK, France and Germany said they have “great concern” over Iran’s move.

 

Image source: AFP

“We reject any ultimatums and we will assess Iran’s compliance on the basis of Iran’s performance regarding its nuclear-related commitments under the JCPoA and the NPT” (Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons).

Iran has still made clear that its “goal is to strengthen the JCPOA and bring it back on track,” according to Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman of the Atomic Energy Organization, on Wednesday.

Earlier this year the EU announced a new special purpose transactions channel with Iran to bypass US sanctions. The launch of INSTEX — or “Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges” — by France, Germany, and the UK is to allow non-dollar trade with Iran and is being described as facilitating humanitarian goods-related transactions only, including food, medicine and medical equipment.

The “SWIFT-alternative” mechanism constitutes the most concrete action Europe has yet taken to thwart Washington sanctions after the US pullout of the 2015 nuclear deal last May, and after SWIFT caved to US pressure last year.

However, the alternative vehicle is not yet operational – its goal being the transaction of goods between Iran and foreign companies without direct financial transactions – while the Iranian economy is being gutted by sanctions, with the Iranian rial at record lows, and its annual inflation having quadrupled.

It now appears Tehran is extremely dubious of there being an EU lifeline on the horizon. And now things are about to get worse, given Trump’s announced new sanctions on Iran’s iron, steel, aluminum, and copper exports, which targets a sector that makes up 10% of Iran’s total export economy.

But more importantly is that Iran’s domestic industrial metals industry employs hundreds of thousands, thus it appears the newly imposed sanctions are aimed at fomenting domestic unrest in hopes of toppling the regime:

Metals and mining companies directly employ over 600,000 workers. The country’s automotive sector, the largest consumer of Iranian steel, directly employs a further 1 million workers. Combined, the two sectors account for 6 percent of the country’s total labor force.

This appears a calculated attempt to initiate an get Iranian local response, given the central importance that metal represents to the economy.

And this “maximum pressure” campaign now includes the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group en route to the Persian Gulf, where it’s now passing through the Suez Canal as of Thursday morning.

 

end

TURKEY

There is no question that Turkey is in deep trouble.  Firstly, Erdogan raised rates from 24% to 25.5% which just about kills off most corporates in Turkey.

The lira plummeted to 6.24 which causes citizens to bail on its currency as they desperate try to convert to dollars that which is in low supply.

Remember:  Turkey has about 11 billion in ture asset reserves of which gold, at 511 tonnes is around 24 billion dollars. Turkey will never sell an ounce of gold contrary to the doorknob Maduro in Venezuela. Turkey must face China and Russia and then default on its western assets.  This will break most of the European banks.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Is The Lira Doomed: Turkey Emergency Currency Intervention Fails In Under Two Hours

Turkey’s economic and currency implosion is getting worse by the day.

With investors increasingly concerned about Turkey’s level of FX reserves and ability to defend the currency, on Wednesday ABN-Amro analyst Nora Neuteboom poured gasoline on the fire saying what everyone else already knows, namely that “given the relatively low reserves, Turkey cannot afford to deplete its reserves further by defending the currency,”adding that “as investors are well aware of this fact, a little spark in, for example the tensions with the U.S., could easily trigger another lira sell-off.”

Of course, with the Turkish lira already in freefall, we may not even need a spark, as the rout gets worse with every passing day.

To wit: on Thursday, the lira fell for a fifth day against the dollar, touching the lowest level in eight months as investors bid up the price of Turkish CDS which insure against a default on the nation’s bonds. The lira weakened as much as 1% to 6.2456, sliding below 6 per euro, while the cost of five-year credit default swaps climbed above 490bps for the first time since September.

The lira – which Bloomberg reminds us has been the worst-performing currency in the world this quarter – shed more than 4% of its value over the past five trading sessions amid the fallout from Turkey’s decision to re-run municipal elections in Istanbul.

And then, out of the blue, an unexpected attempt to restore confidence in the lira took place, when just after 6am ET, Turkey’s central bank unexpectedly raised borrowing costs for the country’s lenders on Thursday in an attempt to bolster the crashing currency. The decision effectively raised the cost of funding for banks by 150 basis points without an official increase in its benchmark interest rate, with the central bank explaining in a statement that the decision was due to volatility in financial markets.

What happened next? Well, there was good news and bad news.

First the good news: moments after the central bank announced it was suspending one-week repo auctions once again, ceasing to provide liquidity to lenders at its cheapest rate of 24%, and effectively requiring banks to obtain their Central Bank funding at the overnight lending window at an interest rate of 25.5%, 150bp above the repo rate, the lira initially trimmed losses, with the USDTRY sliding as much as 300 pips.

In the press release, the Bank noted: “Considering the developments in financial markets, it has been decided to suspend the one-week repo auctions for a period of time.”

Immediately, however, the skeptics emerged: “It is an attempt to slow down the rapid ascent of the dollar-lira pair,”Rabobank’s Piotr Matys said. “But it will not change the underlying upside bias supported mostly by domestic factors – mainly political risk – with additional support coming from the negative external backdrop.”

Commenting on the move, Bloomberg economist Ziad Daoud agreed that the move would be futile, and at worst, accelerate the drop in the lira: “the tightening of monetary policy through the suspension of the one-week repo auction is unlikely to stem the decline in the lira – the problems today are more political than economic. And low interest rates on bank deposits limit the effectiveness of any hikes by the central bank.”

As a reminder, the TCMB stopped one-week repo funding on March 22 but restarted on April 8. Given that the tightening is not done through the main policy rate but through shifting the funding to a different window, such a move was destined to “not be very effective as it seems to signal that this tightening is only temporary” according to Goldman, which adds that “shifting the funding window frequently rather than adjusting the main policy rate could undermine the effectiveness of monetary policy.”

Well, for once Goldman was right, which also brings us to the bad news: not even two hours after the emergency central bank intervention, the attempt to restore confidence in the lira fizzled, as sellers returned in full force and sent the USDTRY back to where it was just before the central bank’s suspension of the one-week repo auction…

… confirming that the market is no longer afraid of any central bank actions, unexpected or otherwise.

Discussing what Turkey should do, Goldman FX strategists write that “the authorities will ultimately need to let the domestic financial conditions tighten and signal this by raising the main policy rate, with the size of the hike needed depending on the extent of its transmission to other rates in the economy, in particular domestic deposits rates.”

In our view, the TRY has recently been under pressure mostly due to the fall in local money demand that manifests itself in an increasingly dollarising deposit base; hence, higher deposit rates will be needed to safeguard financial stability.

There is just one problem with that prescription: just like Trump, Erdogan loathes higher rates. In fact, he recently hinted that it may be time for a rate cut. And sure, while the central bank may hike overnight rates to 1000%+ again, or even hike rates briefly, all that would lead to is an even faster collapse in the economy which is now Erdogan’s personal fiefdom, as not even an IMF bailout would be allowed as long as the Turkish “executive president” is in charge.

Which begs the question: with the lira be the first true “western” currency casualty? With the country’s reserves almost gone, we won’t have long to wait to find out.

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

A good global Bellwether on the shape of economies and growth for the world.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Global Smartphone Shipments Plunge To Lowest Level In Years 

Across the world, warning signs are flashing about the state of the economy.

Three-fourths of the global economy (per GDP) will experience a slowdown this year. The pause in growth has unquestionably transmitted through the global smartphone industry, sending shipment volumes down 6.6% YoY in 1Q19, according to new data from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.

Smartphone vendors (Samsung, Huawei, Apple, Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo, and others) shipped 310.8 million units in 1Q19, recorded the sixth consecutive quarter of decline. Last year, smartphone shipments fell 4.1% over 2017, as 1Q19 was down 3.5% — about half of what the market experienced in 1Q19, indicating the slowdown has only accelerated.

The plunge in demand is more proof that 2019 will be another huge down year for worldwide smartphone shipments.

At the heart of these high-tech handheld gadgets, are microprocessor chips that serve as the central processing unit. Earlier this week, we highlighted a report from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) that warned of a 13% drop YoY in 1Q19 in chips, a direct correlation to waning demand from smartphones.

However, there was one green shoot, Huawei become number two smartphone manufacturer in the world, with smartphone shipments increasing 50% YoY in 1Q19.

“It is becoming increasingly clear that Huawei is laser focused on growing its stature in the world of mobile devices, with smartphones being its lead horse,” said Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. “The overall smartphone market continues to be challenged in almost all areas, yet Huawei was able to grow shipments by 50%, not only signifying a clear number two in terms of market share but also closing the gap on the market leader Samsung. This new ranking of Samsung, Huawei, and Apple is very likely what we’ll see when 2019 is all said and done.”

IDC poured cold water on a 2H19 rebound in China, indicating the smartphone industry in the country will likely be “challenged” for the remainder of 2019, and noted that the epicenter of the downturn was in North America.

US smartphone shipments declined 15% YoY during 1Q19 as replacements rates slowed. Apple iPhone, Samsung, and LG Electronics performed rather poor in 1Q19.

“The less than stellar first quarter in the United States can be attributed to the continued slowdown we are witnessing at the high end of the market,” said Anthony Scarsella, research manager with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “Consumers continue to hold on to their phones longer than before as newer higher priced models offer little incentive to shell out top dollar to upgrade. Moreover, the pending arrival of 5G handsets could have consumers waiting until both the networks and devices are ready for prime time in 2020.”

The deterioration in smartphone sales forced LG Electronics in South Korea last month to suspend all smartphone production in the country. The South Korean based electronics company is expected to transfer resources to Vietnam, which follows a list of multinationals reorganizing their complex supply chains as a global synchronized slowdown gains momentum in 2Q.

Samsung controls 23.1% of the global market share, the largest out of any company, but it’s down 8.1% from 78.2 million shipments in 1Q18. Huawei logged a 50.3% increase in shipments, shifting the Shenzhen based company to the second largest smartphone manufacturer in the world with 59.1 million shipments, while Apple was demoted to the third spot since its orders crashed 30.2% YoY to 36.4 million shipments.

Both reports from IDC and SIA suggest the second half rebound that has already been priced into global stock markets through multiple expansion is merely a fantasy. Perhaps, the plunge in smartphone and semiconductor chip demand is a sign the global economy is still crumbling.

We’ll leave readers with a chart of where the global economy in terms of trade volume is headed. As shown below, the move is down and it’s likely to be met with new rounds of global central bank easing.

end

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

VENEZUELA/USA

Trump now turns on Bolton for accusing him of trying to start a war in Venezuela according to the Washington Post

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Turns On Bolton, Accuses Him Of ‘Trying To Start A War’ In Venezuela: WaPo

Has President Trump finally turned on John Bolton? It’s starting to look that way.

Bolton

Shortly before President Trump tweeted about a meeting with Marco Rubio and Rick Scott where the “terrible abuses by Maduro” were discussed, the Washington Post published an anonymously sourced story claiming that Trump is growing frustrated with the situation in Venezuela, and is blaming aides like Bolton for misleading him about opposition leader Juan Guaido’s chances of success.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

After a great rally in Panama City Beach, Florida – I am returning to Washington, D.C. with @SenRickScott and Senator @MarcoRubio, discussing the terrible abuses by Maduro. America stands with the GREAT PEOPLE of Venezuela for however long it takes!

According to WaPo, Trump has privately described Maduro as a “tough cookie”, and blamed aides for misleading him when they said the socialist strongman could be ousted during last week’s demonstrations. In recent days, Trump has expressed concern that Bolton is trying to get him “into a war.” We imagine a leaked plan for a US-backed coup prepared by SOUTHCOM hasn’t helped to assuage these concerns.

Though two WaPo sources insisted that Bolton’s job is ‘safe’ – for now at least – the fact that Trump has finally caught on to the drawbacks of Bolton’s neoconnishness, and now appears to understand that Bolton’s views are at odds with Trump’s “America First” platform, certainly doesn’t bode well for his prospects.

Earlier this week, Vice President Mike Pence revealed that the White House would lift sanctions on a general who had turned on Maduro, and offered the same level of amnesty to any military officials who would join him.

Still, the administration’s policy is officially unchanged. But the report at least shows that Trump is uneasy about what appears to be a slow march toward another American military intervention – and might be taking steps to stop it from happening.

end

 

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1189 DOWN .0009 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.78 DOWN 0.245 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2987   DOWN   0.0021  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3476 UP .0003 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 9 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  FALLING to 1.1189 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 42.80 POINTS OR 1.48% 

 

 

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 692.13 POINTS OR 2.39%

 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .40%// EUROPEAN BOURSES RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 200.46 POINTS OR 0.93% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 692.13 POINTS OF 2.39% 

 

 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 42.80 POINTS OR 1.48% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .40% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 200.46 POINTS OR 0.93%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1284.90

silver:$14.82

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.45% !!! DOWN 0 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.87 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 97.60 DOWN 3 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  THURSDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.12%  UP 3 in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.05%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.99% UP 3   IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.68 UP 7  POINT in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 169 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS –.05%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.73% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1229  UP     .0031 or 31 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.56 DOWN .466 OR YEN UP 47  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3011 UP .0003 POUND UP 3  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 22 basis points to 1.3496

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed AT 6.8274    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8612  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REAL DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.2288 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.05%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.44 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.87 UP 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.33  DOWN 29  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 63,59  0.87%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 206,01 POINTS OR 1.69%

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 104,43 POINTS OR 1.93%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 142.70 POINTS or 1.55%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 386,70 POINTS OR 1,82%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 61.37 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 69.89 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.44  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.37 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 37 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.05 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  61.60

 

 

BRENT :  70.17

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.45…   STILL DEADLY//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.87..VERY DEADLY

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1220 ( UP 22   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.71 DOWN .313 (YEN UP 31 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.41 DOWN 22 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.3017 UP 10  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.2010

 

the Russian rouble 65.28   DOWN.21 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN .21 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3467 UP 6 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8274  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly.

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.350 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly.

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.06%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN 139.65 POINTS OR 0.54%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 32.73 POINTS OR 0.41%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  19.32 CLOSED DOWN 0.08

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.545%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.559

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Headline-Chaos Sparks Stock Dump’n’Pump; Dollar & Bond Yields Slide

Trump did his best to jawbone it up but in the end…

in the end…

 

China extended losses overnight with ChiNext down almost 10% already this week…

 

Europe was ugly today led by France…

 

US Markets were rescued by some optimistic comments from Trump…

 

The Dow underperformed as Trannies reached back up towards unchanged…

 

The Dow closed below its 50DMA for the second day (S&P broke below its 50DMA but managed to scramble back on Trump headlines)

 

VIX term structure remains inverted for the 4th day in a row…

 

Credit markets continue to push notably wider…

 

Treasury yields slipped lower on the day with the belly outperforming…

 

The yield curve inverted once again today…

 

And while we are in bond land, we note that Occidental bonds are sharply lower (as its stock hit a 10Y low) as it becomes evident that the company will win the very brief bidding tiff with Chevron for Anadarko – and will likely incur substantially more debt in the process.

 

The Dollar Index stayed rangebound once again as if some greater force had its boot on the throat of FX vol…

 

Yuan rallied back this afternoon after Trump’s positive comments…

 

Bitcoin extended gains today on the week as the rest of the crypto space slipped…

 

Mixed day in commodity-land…

 

But gold and silver diverged this afternoon…

 

And gold is at its strongest against yuan since late March…

 

Finally, for all the “risk-on” crowd, keep an eye on global money supply, it’s rolling over fast…

END

Market trading: early LAST NIGHT

“Trump last night:  China broke the deal and they will be paying..”

(zerohedge)

Markets Roiled After Trump Says “China Broke The Deal… They’ll Be Paying”

Update: Minutes later, President ‘good cop’ Trump added reassuringly, as if nudged from off-stage by Larry Kudlow: “don’t worry [on China], it will all work out.”

However, he quickly swung back to ‘bad cop’ warning that: “we won’t back down until China stops stealing our jobs.”

*  *  *

Speaking at a rally in the Florida Panhandle, President Trump told the large crowd that China’s “Vice Premier is flying in” to continue trade talks, but “they broke the deal,” adding that “they’ll be paying.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Big crowds in Panama City Beach, Florida. See everyone in 30 minutes! @FoxNews @TuckerCarlson @SeanHannity

This off-the-cuff incremental remark prompted selling in US equity futures, extending overnight losses…

S&P is down 0.5%…

Nasdaq took out the day session lows…

And the yuan slipped…

Along with yen. breaking below 110.00…

And oil prices are also tumbling…

This market is extremely sensitive to trade headlines.

As a reminder, U.S. and China are set to resume trade negotiations only hours before new tariffs take effect that would push the world’s two biggest economies deeper into commercial conflict

END
This morning:
Stocks not happy this morning after the Chinese Media state that there is a zero chance of a trade deal
(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks Plumb Session Lows After Chinese Media Says “Zero Chance” Of Trade Deal

Not long after the Chinese delegation landed in Washington for the latest round of talks, one of Beijing’s favorite English-language mouthpieces appears to have confirmed that the odds of striking a trade deal before Friday are “zero” – sending stock futures to their lows of the session.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT

Today, I asked one from Chinese side who knows the trade talks well, how many possibilities there still are to reach a deal before Friday. His answer is: 0. If it is that bad, the real suspense is whether the two sides will continue negotiations after Friday.

Before the delegation left the airport, Hu tweeted a challenge to the US: Think long and hard about what you want to accomplish this week.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT
163 people are talking about this

Though this doesn’t mean a deal won’t be struck in the coming weeks, though Hu’s comments about the ‘real question’ being whether negotiations will continue after Friday appears to have rattled the market, which had presumably assumed that they would.

Stocks

To put this move in context, the selloff on the renewed trade tensions has cemented the pattern of this week, which has been one dead-cat bounce after another.

Xi

So, how long before Trump poses for reporters with Liu He (who has been stripped of his ‘special envoy’ status for this week’s talks, giving him less authority to strike a deal without first reporting back to Beijing), assuring investors that a deal will happen and pushing stocks back into the green?

end
Mid morning:

S&P 500 Tumbles Through Key Technical Support

For the first time since Jan 23rd, the S&P 500 has broken back below its key 50-day moving-average to six-week lows as trade deal anxiety takes hold…

Finally, those wondering where are the next selling-wave triggers, here are McElligott’s observations on what will catalyze even more selling:

  • S&P 500, 100.0% long into today but ‘spot’ is currently through the sell-trigger level (note: needs to HOLD & CLOSE below), selling under 2894.82 to get to 60% as both the 2w and 1m signals “flip” to SELL, more selling under 2642.11 to get to -100%, flip to short under 2642.41, max short under 2642.11
  • NASDAQ 100, 100.0% long into today, selling under 7597.86 (to get to 60%, more selling under 6699.38 to get to -100%, flip to short under 6700.16, max short under 6699.38
  • Russell 2000, 100.0% long into today but “spot” is currently through the sell-trigger level (note: needs to HOLD & CLOSE below), selling under 1584.44 to get to 60%, more selling under 1579.99 to get to -100%, flip to short under 1580.15, max short under 1579.99

And the biggest irony: after defying the rally for so long, it was only in the past few days that asset managers finally threw in the towel, and rush to get equity exposure. And, as so often happens, that’s precisely when the trapdoor opened.

 

end
BEGINNING OF THE AFTERNOON:
Just what the Chinese needed; the FCC blocks China mobile from the USA market over espionage concerns
(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks Sink As FCC Blocks China Mobile From US Market Over ‘Espionage Concerns’

Update (11:18 am ET): The FCC has spoken and China Mobile has been barred from providing telecoms services in the US market – similar to the punishment doled out to Huawei – over espionage concerns.

  • CHINA MOBILE BARRED FROM THE U.S. MARKET OVER ESPIONAGE CONCERN

* * *

The last thing the market needed this week was another wrench in the works of the US-China trade talks, which were already on the brink of collapse. But that’s exactly what they got when, at around 11 am ET on Thursday, the news broke that the FCC has the votes to block China Mobile from entering the US market.

Beijing won’t like that, as it now seems the Trump administration’s war against Huawei has expanded to the entire Chinese telecoms sector.

Though, to be sure, the FCC is reportedly still weighing its final decision, which is expected momentarily.

  • FCC HAS VOTES TO BAR CHINA MOBILE FROM U.S. MARKET
  • FCC CONSIDERING REJECTION OF CHINA MOBILE APPLICATION

Stocks are nearing LoD on the news.

Stocks

We feel this tweet adequately captures the spirit of this news.

Embedded video

NOD@NOD008

FCC CONSIDERING REJECTION OF CHINA MOBILE APPLICATION

See NOD’s other Tweets

Beijing was already angry about Trump’s claims, made at a Florida rally last night, that its negotiators “broke the deal” and must now “pay” for their decision to reneg. This news likely won’t help lift their mood.

ii)Market data/

The Fed are just not getting the inflation traction that they need: core PPI recordsits slowest growth in 11 months

(courtesy zerohedge)

Core Producer Price Growth Slowest In 11 Months

Extending its recent period of slowdown, core US producer prices rose just 2.4% YoY (below the 2.5% expected) – the slowest since May 2018.

  • Producer prices for goods rose 0.3% after gaining 1% the previous month.
  • Services prices increased 0.1% after a 0.3% gain.

The overall producer-price index was up 0.2% from March, also below estimates, after a 0.6% increase, but the month-over-month Core PPI jumped 0.4% – the most since Jan 2018.

 

The report showed monthly declines in categories including thermoplastic resins and materials, traveler accommodation services and margins for some retail sectors.

Energy prices jumped 1.8% from the prior month, boosting the overall gauge, while food costs fell 0.2%.

Notch another low-flation print as ammo for cutting rates and juicing the economy, right?

end
The trade deficit was in line with expectations at 50 billion dollars.  However what is very disconcerting is that trade with China dropped hugely.  Then other bad news:  trade gap with Mexico rose by 9 billion dollars and the trade gap with Europe rose by $7 billion s to $14 billion dollars.
Trump is not winning exactly what Alasdair Macleod forecasted.  The USA is not “saving” and as such its trade deficit will not shrink despite the tariffs.
(zerohedge)

Trump Winning? US Trade Gap With China Tumbles To 5-Year Low

The headline US trade balance printed in line with expectations at a $50 billion deficit, marginally ‘worse’ than the prior month’s.

 

Overall exports increased 1% to $212 billion, boosted by a 39% jump in soybean shipments. Imports climbed 1.1% to $262 billion on gains in oil, food, vehicles and pharmaceuticals. The overall merchandise-trade deficit widened 0.7% to $72.4 billion.

However, likely of more interest to President Trump, the trade gap with China shrank to $20.75 billion in March – the lowest since March 2014, offering the administration a chance to claim his tariff war is yielding the desired results just as negotiations reach a critical stage.

 

However, as Bloomberg notes, the narrower gap with China obscures a sharp drop in trade between the nations.Imports from the Asian country dropped 13.6% in the first quarter from a year earlier, to $118.8 billion, while exports plunged 17.6% to $27.2 billion. For March, exports were the highest since mid-2018 while imports were the lowest since 2016.

Finally, as USMCA hits more headlines, we note that, on an unadjusted basis, the merchandise trade deficit with Mexico rose to a record $9.5 billion, while the gap with Europe increased by more than half, to $14.2 billion.

END

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

SWAMP STORIES

So true:  where the USA is headed as we enter the 2020 election cycle.. Will the electorate see through the chaos created by the Democrats.

(courtesy Theodore Schatt)

Chaos Is The Order Of The Day

Submitted by J. Theodore Schatt,

Democrats have voted to hold Attorney General Barr in contempt for failing to hand over documents that he is precluded by law from disclosing.  Democrats on Capitol Hill are complaining of unprecedented White House obstruction creating a constitutional crisis.  President Trump is described by these same individuals as a: “racist”; “traitor”; “authoritative dictator” and worse.  If you, like me, have wondered why the tradition of civil public discourse evaporated, I think I have the answer. 

The Democrats sole intention over the next year and a half is to create such a chaotic national political landscape that the 2020 electoral pitch to the American people will be that the only way to end the chaos is to vote President Trump out of office. 

It would appear that Democrats have made the cold and calculated decision that they cannot effectively engage the President on policy.  Understandably so.  How do you argue against an economic policy that results in higher wages and the lowest unemployment numbers in a half decade after previously telling the public to get used to the new normal?   How do you engage in a discussion of health care policy when the last plan you sold to the American public was based upon lower cost and an ability to keep both your plan and your doctor and all three turned out to be false?  How do you effectively engage the President on immigration when the President has been on the issue for three and a half years while you have insisted there is not a problem?  It would require an admission that doing nothing was in error and a capitulation that most of what Trump has wanted is in fact necessary.

The calculation appears to be that if the political scene becomes chaotic enough, a majority of likely voters will tune it all out and come to the conclusion that the only way to end the chaos is to change Presidents in much the same way that parents of screaming infants tend to give the infant what it wants.  That impulse will be fostered by the continuous mantra that Trump’s personality is poisonous to our national unity.  “He’s the cause of divisiveness.”  “He’s a racist.”  “He’s an authoritative dictator.”  The added bonus for Democrats will be that the criminal charges soon to come over the Obama Administration’s interference in the 2016 election will be explained away as simply “trumped” up political charges by an “authoritative dictator”.

There would appear to be two potential outcomes:

1. The American electorate sees through the smoke and punishes the Democrats at the ballot box for their conduct; or

2. The scheme works and Democrats get a pass on their complicity in the Obama Administration’s interference in the 2016 election.

The true beauty of democracy is in either scenario, we the American people get exactly what we deserve.

end

SWAMP STORIES/KEY STORIES/KING REPORT

(COURTESY OF CHRIS POWELL OF GATA)

China backtracked on nearly all aspects of U.S. trade deal – sources

The stripping of binding legal language from the draft struck directly at the highest priority of U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer – who views changes to Chinese laws as essential to verifying compliance after years of what U.S. officials have called empty reform promises…

    “China reneged on a dozen things, if not more … The talks were so bad that the real surprise is that it took Trump until Sunday to blow up,” the source said.  “After 20 years of having their way with the U.S., China still appears to be miscalculating with this administration.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-backtracking-exclusiv/exclusive-china-backtracked-on-nearly-all-aspects-of-u-s-trade-deal-sources-idUSKCN1SE0WJ?il=0

@realDonaldTrump: The reason for the China pullback & attempted renegotiation of the Trade Deal is the sincere HOPE that they will be able to “negotiate” with Joe Biden or one of the very weak Democrats, and thereby continue to ripoff the United States (($500 Billion a year)) for years to come… Guess what, that’s not going to happen! China has just informed us that they (Vice-Premier) are now coming to the U.S. to make a deal. We’ll see, but I am very happy with over $100 Billion a year in Tariffs filling U.S. coffers…great for U.S., not good for China!

Global Times (Chinese government conduit) editor in chief @HuXijin_GT: China has fully prepared for an escalated trade warIt is a new strategy of China to engage in trade talks while fighting a trade war. I think China bets on the fact its politics is more powerful than US politics. Trade war will be decided by domestic politics eventually.

China says it will take ‘necessary’ countermeasures if US raises tariffs Friday

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/08/china-says-it-will-take-necessary-countermeasures-if-us-ups-tariffs.html

China Threatens Retaliation as U.S. Files Paperwork to Raise Tariffs – Filing formalizes threat made by President Trump and U.S. Trade Representative amid trade talks with Beijing [12:46 ET]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-files-paperwork-to-raise-china-tariffs-on-friday-11557323595

 

@RepBenCline: Today we are debating in the House Judiciary Committee whether or not to hold the Attorney General in contempt of Congress – for REFUSING to break the law and disclose confidential Grand Jury testimony. Outrageous!

@RepAndyBiggsAZ: Democrats are telling AG Barr that he should either get held in contempt or violate federal law. That is unprecedented, and it will hold this committee up to derision. I’m interested in seeing the look on the judge’s face when my Democrat colleagues provide their set of facts.

CBS’s @stevenportnoy: WH insists Nadler wants Barr to break the law by disclosing grand jury material. “As long as Congress and this committee continue to ask the attorney general to commit a crime, the president and the attorney general will continue to actually uphold the law,” @PressSec says.

WaPo: White House asserts executive privilege over Mueller report…

 

Nadler has placed new House Dems and Dems in Trump and swing districts in dire straits.  A contempt vote for Barr on a risible charge that he won’t break the law by disclosing grand jury testimony, will be used against them in tough 2020 campaigns.

 

MORE ROSENSTEIN LIES: FBI Opened Obstruction of Justice Probe Against President Trump before Mueller Probe – In April 2018 Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein told President Trump in a private meeting that he was not a target of “any part of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation.”

    And today FOX News reported that Rosenstein and the FBI, despite his lies, were investigating Trump back in January 2017… newly unsealed court document reveals the FBI opened an obstruction of justice case against President Trump before Special Counsel Robert Mueller was appointed to investigate Russia’s interference in the 2016 election…

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/05/more-rosenstein-lies-fbi-opened-obstruction-of-justice-probe-against-president-trump-before-mueller-probe/

 

Ex- SDNY prosecutor: Andy McCarthy: Mueller’s Preposterous Rationale for Tainting the President with ‘Obstruction’ Allegations

     In gross violation of Justice Department policy and constitutional norms, a prosecutor neither charges nor recommends charges against a suspect, but proceeds to smear him by publishing 200 pages of obstruction allegations. Asked to explain why he did it, the prosecutor says he was just trying to protect the suspect from being smeared.  This is the upshot of the Mueller report’s Volume II…

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/05/robert-muellers-preposterous-rationale-for-tainting-the-president-with-obstruction-allegations/amp/

@Barnes_Law: The information disclosed today by NYT on Trump tax items could only be illegally leaked by IRS personnel. The information leaked comes from IRS “tax transcripts” printed out on IRS computers summarizing tax information by social security & EIN numbers, by tax year. 26 USC 6103.

The Hill’s @JonEasley: Trump Jr. is not happy with Senate Intel Chairman Richard Burr about the subpoena. A source close to Trump Jr. calls him “too cowardly to stand up to his boss Mark Warner.”

Trump admin to challenge district judges’ ability to issue national injunctions http://hill.cm/Zw1viuJ

I WILL SEE YOU FRIDAY NIGHT
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