MAY 10//MARKETS ARE ONE BIG JOKE: THE DOW RISES BY 114 POINTS ON “CONSTRUCTIVE TALKS” WITH CHINA DESPITE TRUMP RAISING TARIFFS TO 25% ON 200 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF GOODS/ GOLD UP $2.15 TO $1286.75//SILVER UP 2 CENTS TO $14,79///QUEUE JUMPING CONTINUES IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER COMEX//STILL NO GOLD ENTERS THE GOLD AREN/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1286.75  UP $2.15 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $14.79 UP 2 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold : 1286.75

 

 

 

silver:  $14.79

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:7/11

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,283.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/09/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 05/13/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 7
690 C ABN AMRO 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 2 3
905 C ADM 6
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 11 11
MONTH TO DATE: 187

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 11 NOTICE(S) FOR 1100 OZ (0.0342 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  187 NOTICES FOR 18700 OZ  (.5816 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MAY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

13 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 65,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3341 for 16,705,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :$6299  UP $118.00

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6407 UP $229

 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1691 CONTRACTS FROM 198,782 UP TO 200,473 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S  9 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. ,LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED FOR SILVER BUT IT NOW COMMENCES FOR GOLD. TODAY WE705RRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

 0 FOR MAY, 0 FOR JUNE, 956 FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  956 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 956 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 956 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 4.78 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 9 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

AND NOW 18.280 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MOAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MAY:

10,514 CONTRACTS (FOR 8 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 10,514 CONTRACTS) OR 52.57 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1314 CONTRACTS OR 6.57 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY:  52.57 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 7.51% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          793.30    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED  INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1691 DESPITE THE  9 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 956 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS RESUMED THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES TODAY.

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 2647 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 956 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1691 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 9 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.77 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.007 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 144% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 13 NOTICE(S) FOR  65,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ AND NOW MAY:  18.280 MILLION OZ ..
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 11,269 CONTRACTS, TO 474,094 WITH THE RISE IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(AN INCREASE IN PRICE OF $4.00//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 4205 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 4205 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS, JUNE 2020  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 474,094.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 15,474 CONTRACTS: 11,269 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 4205 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 15,474 CONTRACTS OR 1,547,400 OZ OR 48.13TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF $4.00….AND WITH THAT RISE, WE  HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN TONNAGE OF 48.13 TONNES!!!!!!.?????????????????????????????????????????? 

AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS HAVE NOW SWITCHED TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

 

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ENTER A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI: 

“YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF  SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

AND WITH THE RELEASE OF THE COT REPORT TODAY, HERE IS THE PROOF AS TO WHAT I HAVE BEEN TELLING YOU.  NOTE THE HUGE INCREASE IN SPREADING TO THE TUNE OF 16,755 CONTRACTS.  THIS IS A FRAUD TO THE HIGHEST ORDER!! SILVER HAD ONLY A SMALL 1000 CONTRACT GAIN IN OI SPREADERS IN ITS COT REPORT..

 

 

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
185,801 110,390 73,060 142,078 238,437 400,939 421,887
Change from Prior Reporting Period
8,526 -666 16,755 -5,210 2,837 20,071 18,926
Traders
180 70 79 54 60 261 185
 
Small Speculators  
Long Short Open Interest  
49,100 28,152 450,039  
-43 1,102 20,028  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, May 7, 2019

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 45,855 CONTRACTS OR 4,585,500 OR 142.62 TONNES (8 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5731 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 142.62 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 142.62/3550 x 100% TONNES =4,01% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     1958.18 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 11,269 WITH THE RISE IN PRICING ($4.00) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A  GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 4205 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 4205 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 17,112 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

4205 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 11,269 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 48.13 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $4.00 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. NO DOUBT THAT A STRONG  PERCENTAGE OF OI GAIN WAS DUE TO THE CONTINUING OF THE SPREADING OPERATION AS I HAVE OUTLINED ABOVE.

 

 

 

we had:  11 notice(s) filed upon for 1100 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $4.00  TODAY

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE REACHED THE BOTTOM OF THE BARREL FOR PHYSICAL GOLD BEING SUPPLIED TO THE CROOKS.

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTOR8

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY:

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1691 CONTRACTS from 199,782 UPTO 200,473 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED THEIR LIQUIDATION IN SILVER BUT HAVE NOW MORPHED INTO GOLD..

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE:

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 0 FOR MAY, FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 956 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 956 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1691 CONTRACTS TO THE 956 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 2647 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 13.24 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL AND NOW 18.280 MILLION OZ FOR MAY

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 9 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 956 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 88.26 POINTS OR 3.10%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 239.17 POINTS OR 0.84%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 57.21 POINTS OR 0.27%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .25%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8246 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 61.92 dollars per barrel for WTI and 70.47 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8246 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8550 TRADE TALKS STILL ON//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP THREATENS TO RAISE RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

i)NORTH KOREA

The USA seizes a North Korean ship suspected of violating international sanctions.

Kim not too happy

( zerohedge)

ii)NORTH KOREA

Kim states that his latest launch was a “long range strike”.
Trump not to happy with “fat man”
( zerohedge)

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 China/Chinese affairs

i)/China/USA/ last night 9 pm

Algos panic as the USA China trade talks end early and at midnight tariffs are to begin

( zerohedge)

ii)Midnight THURSDAY NIGHT/Friday 12:01 am

USA hikes Chinese tariffs after the talks result in no progress and China vows to retaliate

( zerohedge)

iii)China’s National team ( plunge protection team) swoops in to prop up stocks as deal hopes crumble
( zerohedge)

iv)Liu leaves empty handed after his two hour meeting//all markets remain subdued.( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

Mises’s Pickering lays out what is the best outcome for Britain and that is a no deal Brexit.  Britain would be able to deal with the rest of the world with cheaper costs.  Also she could get rid of those bothersome high regulatory problems facing all members of the EU.  The problem of course is that goods to the EU will be higher but Britain can deal with it

( Pickering//Mises)

 

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)CYPRUS/TURKEY/EUROPE/ISRAEL

This is becoming quite explosive as Cyprus slams potential Turkish oil and gas drilling in areas controlled by Greek/Cyprus.   They demand EU action

( zerohedge)

ii)Bolton held an extremely rare meeting on Iran at CIA headquarters.

( zerohedge)

iii)Iran/USAIran threatens to destroy the USS Lincoln which is passing through the Suez Canal right now if it proceeds through the Straits of Hormuz

( zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

i)Sweden

Strange: The government at first  desired a cashless Sweden and in the last few years, the amount of notes in circulation decreased.  Now the Government wants its citizens to hoard cash in case of a cyber attack or war.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

VENEZUELA

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)We promised that this would happen:  AngloGold has decided enough is enough and they are leaving South Africa.

(courtesy Seccombe/Business Day.GATA

ii)A must listen to interview on gold suppression courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA and Mark O”Byrne of Goldcore

( Goldcore/GATA//Chris Powell/

iii)More fines are going to be set against our usual crooked banks for rigging foreign exchange (and that should include gold/silver)

The Banks involved are Barclays, Citigroup, HSBC, JPMorgan and 3 others.
( Reuters/GATA)

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//

 

 

ii)Market data

ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

 

SWAMP STORIES

a)The true store behind the Steele dossier: how claims are now debunked and how leaks were perpetrated before the FISA application had actually begun

(zerohedge)

b)Craig Murray takes on whether it was the Russians that hacked the DNC.  He and others state that it was not the Russians

( Craig Murray)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 11,269 CONTRACTS.TO A LEVEL OF 474,094 WITH THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($4.00) IN YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING) 

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7366 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

0 FOR JUNE ’19: 4206 CONTRACTS , DEC; 0 CONTRACTS: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  4206 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 15,474 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 4205 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED 11,269 COMEX CONTRACTS.

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 15,474 contracts OR 1,547,400 OZ OR 48.13 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of MAY and here the open interest stands at 128 contracts, having LOST 0 contracts. We had 5 notices served yesterday so we gained 5 contracts or an additional 500  oz will stand as they guys refused to morph into a London based forward as well as negating a fiat bonus

The next contract month after May is June and here the open interest ROSE by 1397 contracts UP to 283,635.  July GAINED 15 contracts to stand at 72.  After July the next active month is August and here the OI rose by 8,624 contracts up to 114,318 contracts.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 11 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  1100  OZ. (0.0342 TONNES)

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1691 CONTRACTS FROM 198,782 UP TO 200,473(AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S TINY OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A 9 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.  HERE WE HAVE 328 OPEN INTEREST STAND SO FAR FOR A LOSS OF ONLY 38 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 49 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO IN ESSENCE WE GAINED ANOTHER  11 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 55,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. SILVER MUST BE SCARCE AT THE COMEX. QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE. WE HAVE NOW SURPASSED THE INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING WHICH OCCURED ON APRIL 30.2019

 

 

 

THE NEXT MONTH AFTER MAY IS THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF  JUNE.  HERE THIS MONTH GAINED 18 CONTRACTS UP TO 724. AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY, (THE SECOND LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR FOR SILVER) AND HERE THIS MONTH GAINED 1389 CONTRACTS UP TO 152,783 CONTRACTS. THE NEXT ACTIVE MONTH AFTER JULY FOR SILVER IS SEPTEMBER AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 1004 UP TO 17,872 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 13 notice(s) filed for 65,000 OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  244,286  CONTRACTS 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  339,743  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  MAY/GOLD

MAY 10 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
11 notice(s)
 1100 OZ
(0.0342TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
117 contracts
(11700 oz)
0.3639 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
187 notices
18700 OZ
.5816 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else:  zero oz

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside/ again zero amount arrived  today

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

(maybe investors are taking our advice by not storing their gold at the comex.)

this will hurt our bankers as they need to replace leased gold as all gold stored at the gold comex is unallocated.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE RATS ARE FLEEING A SINKING SHIP!

Gold withdrawals;

i)  We had 0 withdrawals:

 

.

total gold withdrawals; niloz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustments today

FOR THE MAY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 11 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 7 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (187) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (128 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (11 x 100 oz per contract) equals 30,400 OZ OR 0.9455 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of MAY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (187 x 100 oz)  + (128)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (11 x 100 oz )which equals 30,400 oz standing OR 0.9455 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of MAY.

We gained 5 contracts or an additional 500 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into a London based forwards. Queue jumping continues where we left off last month in gold and for that matter in silver.  We now have two precious metals undergoing queue jumping as the bankers scramble to obtain physical metal.

 

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 6.604 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 0.9455 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  212,322.479 oz or  6.604tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,702,775.662 oz 239.58 tonnes

 

 

FOR COMPARISON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR APRIL 2018 AND FINAL STANDING APRIL 30 2018

 

 

AT FIRST DAY NOTICE MAY 1 2018: WE HAD 1.284 TONNES OF GOLD STAND.  BY MONTH’S END:  2.27 TONNES AS WE HAD ONE QUEUE JUMPING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

IN THE LAST 31 MONTHS 116 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
MAY 10 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
933,345.704 oz
BRINKS
CNT
SCOTIA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,089,730.741 oz
CNT
SCOTIA
No of oz served today (contracts)
13
CONTRACT(S)
(65,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
315 contracts
1,575,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3341 contracts

16,705,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 149.469 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.80% of all official comex silver. (149 million/305 million)

 

into  i) CNT: 599,240.001 oz

ii) Scotia:  490,490.740 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  1,089,730.741  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of Brinks:  96,475.129 oz

ii) Out of CNT; 507,745.685 oz

iii) Out of Scotia: 329,124.890 oz

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals:  933,345.704oz

 

we had 4 adjustment : and all indicative of a settlement

out of CNT:  2,037,484.800 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account and this landed into the customer account of CNT

out of Brinks: 826,517.680 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account and this landed into the customer account of Brinks

out of HSBC: 100,021.420 oz adjusted identical to above

out of Scotia: 68,352.120 oz adjusted identical to above

total adjustments; 3.032 million oz and this is a settlement.

It is interesting that we witness settlements like this all the time in silver but not gold.  I wonder why?

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  92.066 million

total dealer + customer silver:  307 338 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MAY 2019. contract month is represented by 13 contract(s) FOR  65,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3341 x 5,000 oz = 16,705,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (328) and the number of notices served upon today (11 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY/2019 contract month: 3341(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY( 328) -number of notices served upon today (11)x 5000 oz equals 18,280,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month.

We GAINED 11 contracts or an additional 55,000 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus for their efforts.

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON VS LAST YEAR:

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE APRIL 30/2018 (FOR THE MAY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH) WE HAD 24.11 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY.  BY MONTH END WE HAD HUGE QUEUE JUMPING AND THUS 36.285 MILLION OZ EVENTUALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  28,592 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 67,225 CONTRACTS..

 

..

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 67,225 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 336 million  OZ 48.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -4.45% (MAY 10/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -2.03% to NAV (MAY 10/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.45%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.83 TRADING 12.23/DISCOUNT 4.68

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MAY 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES//

MAY 9//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 7/ WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $9.35 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.52

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD UP $4.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES//

APRIL 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.2//ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 746.69 TONNES TONNES

APRIL 25//WITH GOLD UP $.05 TODAY  (BASICALLY FLAT) NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

 

APRIL 24 WITH GOLD UP  $6.00 TODAY// TWO TRANSACTIONS: 1)A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD AND THEN II) ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

APRIL 23./WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES//

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD UP $1.75//A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT752.27 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES AT THE GLD WHICH WAS USED IN YESTERDAY’S RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 752.27 TONNES

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.03

APRIL 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $2.10 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757..85 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.45 AGAIN TODAY, THE CROOKS AGAIN RAIDED THE COOKE JAR BY 2.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.49 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40: THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 761.67 TONNES.

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD UP$1.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF PHYSICAL GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.55 TONNES

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.29 TONNES

APRIL 3:WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS: ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL: 3.81 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  764.29 TONNES

APRIL 2//WOW! WE LOST A WHOPPING 16.16 TONNES OF GOLD WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $1.80//INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.10

 

 

 

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MAY 10/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 739.64 tonnes

*IN LAST 594 TRADING DAYS: 194.33 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 494 TRADING DAYS: A NET 28.49 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN LOST INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE REACHED THE BOTTOM OF THE BARREL FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE GLD.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MAY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.582 MILLION OZ/

MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///

MAY 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 891,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

MAY 3//WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 843,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/TOTAL INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.691 MILLION OZ//

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 13 CENTS, MIRACUOUSLY THE AUTHORITIES ADD 2.869 MILLION OZ OF SILVER BACK INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.848 MILLION OZ//

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ////

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 29/ WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 26//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 23./WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A SHOCKING 2.8122 MILLION PAPER OZ WERE ADDED INTO SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15: WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 12 WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 750,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ//

April 10/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:  THE CROOKS CANNOT RAID ANY SILVER BECAUSE THERE IS NONE: INVENTORY RETS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 4/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP TWO CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/ WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ FROM THE SLV TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167

 

 

 

MAY 10/2019:

 

Inventory 316.582 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.15/ and libor 6 month duration 2.58

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .43

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.44%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.70

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.26

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne
A  must 

 

GOLD SUP

 

 
end

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

We promised that this would happen:  AngloGold has decided enough is enough and they are leaving South Africa.

(courtesy Seccombe/Business Day.GATA)



iii) Other Physical stories

-END-

Gold trading/

 

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.8246/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8550   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 88.26 POINTS OR 3.10%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 239.17 POINTS OR 0.84%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 57.21 POINTS OR 0.27%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN /

 

 

 

USA dollar index FALLS TO 97.36/Euro RISES TO 1.1232

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.05/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.73/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 62.02 and Brent: 70.92

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO 04%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.67% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.96%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.71: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.50

3k Gold at $1285.50 silver at: 14.76   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 2/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.22

3m oil into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and 70 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.73 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0134 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1383 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.04%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.45% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.87%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.1302..they are toast

Stocks Rise On “Trade Deal Hopes” After US Hikes Tariffs As Trade Deal Collapses

The market may have hit peak absurdity this morning because just hours after another round of US tariffs against China went into effect as some $200BN of Chinese imports saw tariffs hiked to 25% and Beijing vowed it would strike back, world stocks and US equity futures jumped after a volatile overnight session because, as the official narrative goes according to Reuters, “investors held out hopes for a trade deal between the United States and China” even as, as noted above, another round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods took effect.

 

Eager to “explain” the bizarre market (non) reaction, the WSJ went into full blown narrative-building mode, and wrote that stocks shrugged the tariff hike for these reasons:

  1. Hike was priced in;
  2. Negotiations are still ongoing;
  3. This could accelerate agreement.

Then again, not everyone bought this cheap attempt to goalseek a story to market action, and Credit Suisse wrote that “In the short term, a renewed intensification of trade tensions between the United States and China could fuel further volatility and lead to temporary setbacks. Still, we see recent developments as the United States strengthening its negotiating position in order to achieve a better deal, potentially later than expected.”

Bullshit attempts to explain why algos are doing what algos are doing, here are the five takeaways from the tariff hike which went live at 12:01am this morning.

  1. The Trump administration imposed a 25% tariff on more than $200 billion in Chinese goods, up from 10% before, in its most aggressive step yet in the trade war. China said it will take “necessary countermeasures,” though has yet to specify them.
  2. Day one of talks between top Chinese and U.S. economic officials in Washington ended with little progress and a downbeat mood, according to people familiar with the talks. Negotiations are set to resume Friday morning.
  3. Asian markets were whipsawed in heavy trading as news emerged, with stocks swinging from gains to losses. As the Shanghai Composite slumped 3% from the morning-session high, state funds intervened to prop up stocks, people familiar with the matter said. The index closed up 3.1% and the yuan rose.
  4. Investors are also on the lookout for any sign of a call between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, after Trump said he’d received a letter from Xi and flagged the potential for a phone conversation between them.
  5. Next steps to watch include the details on China’s retaliation, news on any broader stimulus efforts to safeguard growth and on any move by Trump to impose new 25% tariffs on $325 billion more of imports, a threat that he reiterated Thursday.

To be sure, global stocks took the news in stride, even if it require some major state intervention, and Asian stocks rebounded after a four day losing streak as fresh American tariffs kicked in on Chinese goods and traders awaited countermeasures promised by Beijing. The Shanghai Composite Index surged 3.1%, with Kweichow Moutai and Ping An Insurance Group Co. leading gains, with the very clear help of some pretty aggressive plunge protection team intervention, as noted in an earlier post. Now that the gloves are off between the US and China, expect far more such aggressive intervention.

China

Japan’s Topix gauge dipped 0.1%, driven by SoftBank and Mitsubishi, while in India, the S&P BSE Sensex Index gained 0.2%, as Housing Development Finance and HDFC Bank offered the biggest boosts.

Piggybacking on the “hope is back even though new tariffs were just launched” narrative, or perhaps China’s PPT intervention, European stocks also bounced off six-week lows, with Germany’s China-sensitive DAX index leading the charge with a 1% rise for absolutely no obvious reason, while tech shares led the Stoxx 600 higher.

Confirming the global rush, MSCI’s World Index was up 0.2% after the start of European trading, but even with that move, the gauge was set for its worst weekly performance since late December 2018, with a loss of 2.75% as tensions on trade ratcheted up again between the U.S. and China.

However, while stocks levitated in the low-volume overnight session, S&P 500 futures then abruptly reversed course a little after 6am, dipping after President Donald Trump tweeting there is “no need to rush” for a deal (a tweet which he has since deleted).

 

Some on Wall Street are bracing for much more pain to come, and on Thursday UBS Wealth Management cut its exposure to emerging market stocks, changing its portfolio as the intensification of trade tensions took its toll on markets, the asset manager said in a note. Trump also threatened on Thursday to take steps to authorize new tariffs on $325 billion in Chinese imports.

Meanwhile, geopolitics are not helping: North Korea fired two short-range missiles on Thursday in its second such test in less than a week and the United States said it had seized a North Korean cargo ship. On Iran, Trump said he could not rule out a military confrontation after Tehran relaxed restrictions on its nuclear program in response to U.S. sanctions imposed following Trump’s withdrawal of the United States from the accord with a year ago.

In yields, the 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield stood at 2.45% near its lowest levels since late March; Three-month bill yields stood at 2.456%. On Thursday, the curve inverted again as the 10-year yield briefly fell below the shorter three-month yields on Thursday. German 10-year government bond yields were headed for their biggest weekly fall in seven weeks in a sign that a ratcheting up in U.S./China trade tensions have exacerbated concern about the global growth outlook.

In FX, the yen headed for its fourth week of gains while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index stood little changed. Sterling steadied after U.K. growth data signaled a slowdown while Norway’s krone led gains in the Group-of-10 currencies after inflation beat estimates. MSCI’s emerging market currency index also tumbled to a four-month low on Thursday.

In commodities, oil prices rose. Brent was up 0.3% to $70.61 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 0.3% to $61.89. Gold ticked up 0.1% to $1,284.84 per ounce.

Scheduled earnings include Linde, Enbridge, Marriott International. Uber will start trading after pricing shares near the bottom of their marketed range

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2,868.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.9% to 379.17
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 157.03
  • MXAPJ up 0.6% to 519.00
  • Nikkei down 0.3% to 21,344.92
  • Topix down 0.08% to 1,549.42
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 28,550.24
  • Shanghai Composite up 3.1% to 2,939.21
  • Sensex up 0.08% to 37,590.71
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,310.85
  • Kospi up 0.3% to 2,108.04
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to -0.041%
  • Euro up 0.04% to $1.1220
  • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $70.65/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 6.7 bps to 2.31%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to 0.974%
  • Gold spot up 0.06% to $1,284.84
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.05% to 97.42

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Trump boosted tariffs Friday on more than $200 billion in goods from China in his most dramatic step yet to extract trade concessions, further roiling financial markets and casting a shadow over the global economy. China immediately said in a statement it is forced to retaliate, though hasn’t specified how
  • Chinese state-backed funds were active in buying domestic equities on Friday after they had slumped in the wake of the Trump administration imposing the biggest hit yet to China’s exports to the U.S.
  • Brexit stockpiling and consumer spending spurred the British economy in the first quarter but a disappointing March suggests that a slowdown may already be well under way
  • South Africa’s African National Congress has won 57% of the votes cast in May 8 national elections, official tallies from 81 percent of the voting stations show, to extend its quarter-century grip on political power
  • Danske Bank A/S has named Chris Vogelzang as its chief executive officer, ending months of speculation over who will steer Denmark’s biggest bank through the continuing fallout of its money-laundering scandal

Asian equity markets were mixed with some seemingly hopeful for a resolution to the US-China trade dispute despite the higher tariffs taking effect overnight, as markets initially found solace from US President Trump’s comments that he received a ‘beautiful’ letter from his Chinese counterpart and suggested a trade deal is possible this week. ASX 200 (+0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) began positive amid hopes of an 11th hour trade-breakthrough which failed to materialize and subsequently saw their early gains wiped out, with sentiment in Tokyo also at the whim of currency moves and a deluge of earnings. Hang Seng (+0.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (+3.1%) initially outperformed on early trade optimism but then retreated off their highs as the steeper tariffs took effect, which China announced it is forced to retaliate against but hoped the sides would meet halfway. Furthermore, some reports noted there was little to no progress talks, although discussions will continue on Friday and it was also suggested that President Trump and President Xi are expected to speak over the phone. Finally, 10yr JGBs were choppy with support seen in late trade after the increased US tariffs kicked in and following stronger demand at the 10yr inflation-indexed bond auction.

Top Asian News

  • Delhi Politics Turns Nasty as Core Issues Ignored: India Votes
  • Gold Set For Weekly Gain as U.S. Hikes China Tariffs
  • China’s Car Slump Drags On as Consumers Wait for Incentives

Major European indices have held onto gains seen at the cash open [Eurostoxx 50 +0.8%] following on from a stellar session in China amid hopes of a trade deal by the end of the week. SMI (+1.0%) marginally outperforms its peers with all 20 stocks in the green. Sectors are posting broad-based gains, albeit the defensive sectors are somewhat lagging amid the risk-appetite. In terms of movers, Thyssenkrupp (+14.0%) shares spiked to the top of the Stoxx 600 after sources initially suggested that the company are to shelve their intended separation of materials and industrial divisions and are to instead consider a listing of its elevator business. Sources also stated that it anticipates a failure of Thyssenkrupp’s JV with Tata Steel, which the company later confirmed as it expects EU to block the planned JV. Meanwhile, to the downside, ADP (-9.3%) shares sharply declined after its privatisation plan is put on hold.  Elsewhere, the latest BAML flow show saw USD 20.5bln out of equities (US USD 14bln, EU USD 2.5bln and EM USD 1.3bln), the third largest YTD amid trade jitters. Finally, with a quarter of EU stocks left to report earnings, Deutsche Bank highlights that 54% of companies have thus far topped expectations (vs. 44% last quarter) which is the highest since early 2017. “Across countries, the strongest beats have come in Germany and Switzerland while Italy has disappointed slightly” Deutsche Bank says, adding that the largest earnings beats have come from the Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare sectors, whilst Material and Real Estate are at the other end of the spectrum.

Top European News

  • Richest Asian Buys 259-Year-Old British Toy Store Chain Hamleys
  • German Airline Staff Say Sexual Harassment Is Rife in Industry
  • A Rothschild Broke From Dynasty and Still Became Fabulously Rich
  • Singapore’s CapitaLand Plans $325 Million London Hotel Sale

In FX, EUR/CAD/CHF/AUD/NZD/GBP – All on a firmer footing vs a broadly soft Greenback in wake of round 1 and reportedly little progress towards a US-China trade deal. Indeed, heading into the 2nd day of negotiations tariffs have now been lifted on another Usd200 bn Chinese imports and Beijing looks poised to retaliate, but the overall market reaction has been sanguine if not calm (or complacent some might argue) amidst optimism that an agreement will ultimately be forged. The single currency is consolidating above 1.1200, albeit just off Thursday’s highs and underpinned by decent option expiries at 1.1200-05 (1 bn), with the 30 DMA (1.1223) looking pivotal from a technical perspective. Meanwhile, the Loonie has pared more losses from 1.3500+ around a 1.3450 axis ahead of Canadian jobs and housing data and the Franc is holding its recovery gains within a 1.0160-30 range. Similarly, the Aussie and Kiwi are supported above post-RBA and RBNZ lows between 0.7018-0.6980 and 0.6613-0.6584 respective bands, with the former gleaning some traction from the overnight SOMP underscoring data dependency after Tuesday’s dovish hold. Finally, Cable is hovering around 1.3000 in the absence of fresh Brexit news and a raft of UK data that had little impact given that Q1 GDP was in line with consensus and the pick-up in growth from the previous quarter was largely due to inventory provisions for the original March 29 Article 50 deadline.

  • NOK/SEK – The Scandi Crowns have also bounced on the more bullish or less risk averse tone, and with the Norwegian Krona also inflated by above forecast CPI data hot on the heels of yesterday’s Norges Bank guidance for a rate hike in June. Eur/Nok is back under 9.8200 and Eur/Sek has retreated to 10.8000.
  • JPY – The major outlier or exception to the overall trend as Usd/Jpy hovers near the midpoint of 110.05-109.65 trading parameters even though the DXY is straddling a key chart level (30 DMA at 97.398) within a lower 97.455-298 range than of late.
  • EM – At last some respite for the beleaguered Lira as Usd/Try reverses sharply towards 6.0000 vs 6.2400+ on Thursday before the CBRT decided to suspend 1 week repos again in an attempt to tighten liquidity and deter short-selling. However, the recovery has come about in large part by direct intervention to the tune of circa Usd1 bn, in contrast to the latest Rand revival on SA election updates, as the ruling ANC has secured 55%+ of the votes with less than 20% left to be counted. Usd/Zar inching closer to 14.20000 at present.

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures trade with mild gains with the former straddling USD 62.00/bbl whilst the latter meanders just above USD 70.50/bbl. Price action in the complex has been mostly dictated by risk-sentiment as the expected US tariff hike on Chinese goods came into effect, ahead of potential Chinese retaliation, although President Trump has not ruled out a possible trade deal this week. Elsewhere, some desks have been keeping an eye on the more pronounced backwardation in Brent futures with ING highlighting that the July/August spread has been trading above USD 0.90/bbl vs. Wednesday’s USD 0.75/bbl, which points towards a tightening market. Meanwhile, some traders noted that the Brent 3M time-spread is at the deepest backwardation in over 4 years. Metals are relatively tentative with precious metals trading flat whilst copper and iron ore are somewhat stable and awaiting China’s response to Trump’s tariff hike. Barclays expects a tighter iron ore market and have thus raise its FY forecast for the base metal to USD 83/tonne (vs. Prev. USD 75/tonne) whilst expecting copper declining to USD 5900/tonne by Q4 2019 before recovering to USD 6300/tonne by Q2 2020 due to trade risk and a potential global slowdown.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: US CPI MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%; YoY, est. 2.1%, prior 1.9%
  • 8:30am: US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%; YoY, est. 2.1%, prior 2.0%
  • 8:30am: Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 1.3%; YoY, prior 1.31%
  • 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $160.5b, prior $214.3b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I am pretty shattered this morning. I attended a fascinating DB macro dinner with 30 clients last night and got home late. This was sandwiched around three successive sleep deprived nights. Night one the adrenaline was flowing because of Liverpool and I couldn’t get to sleep. Night two saw the new burglar alarm system go off twice and disturbed the whole house for well over an hour. However last night will take some beating. At 2ammy wife wakes me to say she’s heard a loud bang downstairs. I grumpily wake up and say the alarm hasn’t gone off and go back to sleep. She then looks out the bedroom door and says the hallway lights downstairs (which are on motion sensors) are on. Someone must have triggered them off. I’m still not convinced but she forces me out of bed. We creep downstairs and start to hear noises coming from the living room. At this point I’m a bit scared. We get to the hall and the noises are getting louder. My wife dials 999 and I grab the nearest blunt weapon (my golf driver). She keeps the 999 operator on the phone and says we’re going to go into the room with the intruder. We go in the room and the loud rustling noises suddenly stop. We’re very scared and creep around the room. On the floor behind the sofa we find a half unwrapped Easter Egg (still in wrapping paper) with teeth marks in it and our new radiator cover collapsed on the wooden floor (the apparent source of the bang). At this point Bronte has decided to rescue us (she sleeps upstairs with us so it wasn’t her) and starts to poke her nose down a hole where the radiator work has been done. She is very excited. From all this we concluded that we have a huge rat that escaped from the hole in the floor where the radiators are, knocked off the cover, roamed around the ground floor, took an unused Easter egg from the kitchen, set off the motion light sensors and then started unwrapping it and nibbling it back in the living room. My wife then apologises to the 999 operator and luckily she laughs it off. 90 minutes later I finally manage to calm down enough to go to sleep. It was genuinely quite scary at one point.

So the alarm this morning was as welcome as tariffs to financial markets. Indeed as we type this, the latest round of US tariffs on $200bn of Chinese exports has just come into place, taking the rate from 10% to 25%. Ahead of this equity markets fell across the globe yesterday, but they did rally off their lows during the afternoon in New York. Investors seemingly continue to try to cling to hope that policymakers on both sides opt to deescalate. The S&P 500 was down -1.49% just before the European close, but it bounced over a percent into the close after President Trump told reporters that a “deal is still possible,” and that he had received a “beautiful letter” from President Xi, and he may have a call with his Chinese counterpart soon. All in all this beautiful letter was worth $372 billion to US stocks (using Wiltshire 5000) from the lows. Most of my letters at the moment are bills so I would love that letter!! Anyway, high-level talks could keep a deal alive but Trump also said that “tariffs are very powerful” and that if he ends up raising them further, that would be “an excellent” alternative to a deal. In the meantime, Bloomberg is reporting that yesterday’s talks yielded little to no progress (citing sources). So uncertainty is clearly elevated moving forward. So far there has been no news of any retaliation from China as we go to print. China’s ministry of commerce has said though that it “deeply regrets” the US tariff hike and says that it is forced to retaliate. One source of a potential retaliation announcement or hints could be the Foreign Ministry’s usual afternoon press conference (08:00am London Time). Yesterday, China’s Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao had said to watch the Ministry of Commerce website for retaliation details. So one to keep an eye on.

So recapping the moves yesterday, starting with equities, the S&P 500 ended -0.31% yesterday, substantially above its -1.49% lows. The NASDAQ fell -0.41% (-1.85% at the lows) and DOW retreated -0.54% (-1.73% at the lows). Continuing the trend of the week, tech and materials bore the brunt of the pain. In Europe, the STOXX 600 closed near its lows at -1.65% and DAX -1.69% with losses accelerating after the US walked in. This morning in Asia markets are trading mixed with the Shanghai Comp being up +1.50% which puts the move this week back to -5.99% but the worst week since October last year as we get into the final session. Other markets in China are also up with the CSI +1.86% (-6.30% on week) and Shenzhen Comp +1.82% (-6.01%). Bloomberg is reporting though that this week has seen China “national team” of state-linked buyers being active. Elsewhere the Nikkei is down -0.37% (-4.59%) and the Hang Seng is up +0.64% (-5.28%). For completeness EM equities got hit to the tune of -1.58% yesterday, down -5.63% on the week.

With the sharp moves in equities, volatility naturally rose, with the VIX rising +3.98pts to reach its highest intraday level (23.38) in four months, however it ultimately retraced and actually closed -0.24pts lower on the session. The V2X earlier rose +2.40pts before closing around lunchtime in New York, so it missed the afternoon retracement. Interestingly we haven’t seen anything quite like the same intra-day volatility in FX with the CVIX about 1pt below the average of the last 12 months and not moving much. Elsewhere EM FX followed the trajectory of other risk assets, initially dipping -0.56% before retracing to end -0.19%. It’s the CNH which is starting to hit people’s radars though after weakening -0.42% yesterday (-0.81% at the lows), before trading a touch weaker this morning. At 6.8350 it’s also around the weakest levels since January. It’ll well be worth continuing to watch the price action in this.

Meanwhile, the MOVE index (Treasury vol) is also well off its peaks of March and January this year with Treasuries rallying another -3.4bps yesterday to hit 2.449% – the lowest since March. The 3m10y spread also briefly inverted again, touching -0.2bps before retracing to end -2.4bps flatter at 2.9bps. For the record, over the last 11.8 years since the last major inversion ended, the only time this measure has inverted previously in this period was during a 5-day stretch in March this year. At the moment the curve doesn’t quite know which way to go as it weighs up rate cut possibilities at the front end, softer growth at the longer end, and maybe a battle between softer or higher inflation depending on whether softer activity outweighs goods price increases. In the end both the front and the long end rallied later with the market continuing to price Fed cuts back into the outlook. The futures-implied odds of a cut this year are back up to 61%, up +11pp this week though still below the level of before Powell’s recent press conference.

Elsewhere in fixed income, Bunds were back down to -0.0467% (-0.3bps) with the Bund-BTP spread now back out at 273bps (+7.1bps yesterday) and to the widest since February. Credit hasn’t been immune from the risk-off but spreads have still remained fairly resilient all things considered. Cash US HY spreads were +11bps yesterday which puts the week to date move at +25bps. For context, the current spread level of 417bps is still 120bps below where it was in early January. Cash European HY spreads have performed similarly, widening +9bps yesterday to take the weekly move to +25bps.

Now to a quick recap of the initially grim news that drove the selloff yesterday morning. Markets really started to take the strain after the Chief Editor of China’s Global Times tweeted that the possibility of reaching a deal before the tariffs went into effect today was zero, and that the real suspense was whether talks would even continue today. Senator Rubio also said that China is “not ready for a deal yet” after Lighthizer had briefed senators while the Fed’s Bostic called lifting tariffs to 25% a “whole other game”. On a not completely unrelated note, the FCC yesterday voted to bar China Mobile from the US over national security concerns. So that only raises the tension between the two sides.

The next focal point for markets will be whether we see Trump and Liu actually meet. As mentioned, a potential release valve for sentiment would be if Trump and Xi speak on the phone following Liu’s visit. Either one of those should at least dictate the direction of travel into the weekend and whether or not either side is willing to put a lid on further escalations for now.

In light of the development in the last few days, it’s worth flagging a good summary from our Asia FX strategists as to what options China may have to retaliate given tariffs are now in effect. They note three possibilities. The first is retaliatory tariff measures, specifically flagging increasing tariffs on $60bn of US goods from 5-10% currently to 5-25%. The second is non-tariff measures, including the likes of export controls or slowing down approval of US companies’ investment in China, or even banning certain US imports. The third is currency depreciation. The team note that 25% on $200bn will bring weighted average tariffs to 11.6% – commensurate with the CNH at just north of 7 to offset the impact. The China policy reaction function, the team suspect, will hinge critically on the assessment of the shifting cost-benefit analysis of a weakening currency. See their full report here .

One last point on this, over the weekend the State Council in China is due to hold a meeting with a press statement expected after the conclusion. So expect there to be plenty of focus on this with our colleagues noting also that both monetary and fiscal easing could be considered.

Ahead of that data, yesterday’s US PPI report wasn’t a great one for risk assets. While the headline was weaker than expected in April (+0.2% mom vs. +0.3% expected), the core which excludes food, energy and trade printed at +0.4% mom and two-tenths ahead of expectations. Significantly, the healthcare component rose +0.3% mom which was the second strongest monthly reading since 2009 while portfolio management services rose +5.3% mom and the most since 2010. That translates into a decent boost for the core PCE from both of those components, with our US economists estimating we could see a boost of as much as 15bps from the various direct inputs. So that should help to alleviate some of the inflation miss concern from Fed officials including Evans recently, however as noted it’s not the greatest news for risk assets.

Other US data included the March US trade balance, which came in pretty in-line with expectations at -$50bn and flat on the month. Notably, the bilateral balance with China improved to -$21bn, which takes the YTD deficit to -$80bn, which is a marked improvement from last year’s level of $91bn. So not necessarily a change in the overall trade deficit, but it seems like tariffs are working to shift US imports away from China and toward other countries.

In terms of the day ahead, this morning we’ll get March trade data out of Germany followed not long after by March industrial production in France. The UK then follows with the March and Q1 GDP prints (+0.0% mom and +0.5% qoq expected respectively). We’ll also get March industrial production, the trade balance and construction output for the UK this morning. In the US the highlight is the April CPI report. The consensus is pegged for a +0.2% mom core reading – like it has been for 42 months prior to this – which would likely be enough to push the year over year rate up to +2.1% again. Our US economists also forecast for +0.2% mom and +2.1% yoy readings. The Fed’s Bostic said yesterday that escalating tariffs on Chinese goods could push US businesses to pass on these higher costs to consumers as the businesses he spoke to said “we are willing to forbear on 10%. 25% is a whole another game.”

Elsewhere we’ll also get the April monthly budget statement this evening. Meanwhile, it’s a busy day ahead for central bank speakers. At the ECB we’re due to hear from Villeroy, Praet, Lautenschlaeger, Visco and Coeure, while over the Fed we’re due to hear from Brainard, Bostic and Williams.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 88.26 POINTS OR 3.10%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 239.17 POINTS OR 0.84%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 57.21 POINTS OR 0.27%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .25%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8246 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 61.92 dollars per barrel for WTI and 70.47 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8246 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8550 TRADE TALKS STILL ON//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP THREATENS TO RAISE RATES TO 25%

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA

The USA seizes a North Korean ship suspected of violating international sanctions.

Kim not too happy

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Seizes North Korean Ship Suspected Of Violating International Sanctions

Just hours after North Korea launched another round of short-range missiles, its second launch in under a week, the Washington Post is reporting that US authorities have seized a North Korean ship used to sell coal in violation of international sanctions.

The FBI and federal prosecutors have confirmed the ship, “the Wise Honest”, is approaching US territorial waters. The US Marshals and the Coast Guard are helping to coordinate its journey.

North

“This sanctions-busting ship is now out of service,” Assistant Attorney General John Demers said in announcing the seizure.

The ship is one of North Korea’s largest, weighing in at 17,601 tonnes and illicitly used to ship coal. The ship was first stopped last year by Indonesian authorities on suspicion of violating sanctions.

The seizure marks an escalation of the American government’s efforts to stop Pyongyang’s rampant sanctions violations. It also comes as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has insisted that Washington must come around to the notion of undoing some of the sanctions, or else the North will might resume its ICBM tests.

This is the first time the US has seized a North Korean cargo ship.

Media reports from last year indicate Indonesian authorities first stopped the vessel on suspicion of violating sanctions. US officials would not say Thursday if Indonesia turned over the vessel.

The UN Security Council passed a resolution in 2017 banning North Korea from exporting coal.

The move marks an escalation of US government pressure on Pyongyang, even as President Trump has spoken glowingly about North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Last month, a federal judge in the District of Columbia approved a set of subpoenas targeting the financial records of Chinese banks which might show how the North Korean regime has sought to evade sanctions over its nuclear program.

In that case, investigators are probing whether a Hong Kong corporation may have helped North Korea evade sanctions.

Kim has reportedly been angered by the lack of progress in talks with Washington, and also by America’s decision to re-start military exercises with South Korea.

We imagine the seizure of one of his government’s most valuable assets probably won’t help calm his nerves.

end

 

NORTH KOREA
Kim states that his latest launch was a “long range strike”.
Trump not to happy with “fat man”
(courtesy zerohedge

Kim Says Latest North Korea Launch Was “Long-Range Strike” Drill

North Korean state media is reporting that what was previously reported as “two short-range missile tests” by South Korea were actually long-range tests, which came on the same day US authorities seized a North Korean ship used to sell coal in violation of international sanctions.

State media announced early Friday (local time): “At the command post, Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un learned about a plan of the strike drill of various long-range strike means and gave an order of start of the drill,” the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said in English, as reported by Yonhap.

 

Via SCMP: People in Seoul watch a report on North Korea on Thursday after the country fired two unidentified projectiles. Photo: Kyodo

“The successful drill of deployment and strike designed to inspect the ability of rapid reaction of the defense units… showed the might of the units which were fully prepared to proficiently carry out any operation and combat,” the report added.

Kim stated he ordered the deeply provocative tests because “genuine peace and security of the country are guaranteed only by the strong physical force capable of defending its sovereignty,” KCNA reported.

The precise location of the drills is as yet unknown, but South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency gave the following details:

The KCNA did not elaborate on what “long-range strike” means. But South Korea’s military said the North is believed to have launched two short-range missiles [in the prior launch] from its northwestern region into the East Sea, which flew 420 kilometers and 270 km, respectively.

Kim has reportedly been angered by the lack of progress in talks with Washington, and also by America’s decision to re-start military exercises with South Korea.

No doubt, Thursday’s seizure of the pariah state’s largest coal ship was a factor in this latest (what appears to be) ballistic missile test, the second in under a week.

 

Missile launched during Friday’s drill in North Korea – photo supplied on Friday, KCNA via Reuters

It also comes as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has insisted that Washington must come around to the notion of undoing some of the sanctions, or else the North might resume its ICBM tests — a threat it appears Kim is already busy making good on.

Analysts said Thursday’s tests appeared to be ballistic missiles, according to the South China Morning Post, which is banned under UN resolutions.

It appears Kim is showing Trump that he too is prepared to “negotiate from the extremes” and is ready to break off talks altogether is the US is unwilling to budge on sanctions relief.

 

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

end

3 C CHINA/CHINESE AFFAIRS

i)China/USA/ last night 9 pm

Algos panic as the USA China trade talks end early and at midnight tariffs are to begin

(courtesy zerohedge)

Algos Panic As US-China Trade-Talks End Early, Tariff-Hikes To Begin

Update (2030ET): Minutes after the meeting tweet was greeted optimistically by the machines, Reuters reports that US-China talks are over for the night, and Trump’s tariff hikes are set to take effect.

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin talked for 90 minutes on Thursday and were expected to resume talks on Friday. Officials did not speak to reporters as they left the talks.

Before they get back around the table on Friday, the United States will have increased duties on $200 billion of Chinese goods, to 25 percent from 10 percent. The duties apply to cargoes leaving China after 12:01 a.m. EDT Friday.

The result was very quick removal of the overnight gains…

So what happens next?

As we noted earlier (via Goldman):

1. We continue to believe the tariff rate on the $200bn tranche of tariffs is likely to officially increase to 25% at 12:01 a.m. ET Friday (in about 11 hours). However, we note that this is a slightly softer deadline than previously expected. According to the formal notice increasing the tariff rate to 25%, the increase will apply to goods that both 1) enter the US for consumption on or after 12:01 a.m. ET Friday, and 2) were exported to the US after May 10. In other words, at 12:01 a.m. Friday the tariff rate will technically be 25% but only for goods that leave China after that point. By contrast, in the formal notice implementing the 10% tariff rate last September, the tariff applied to goods that entered the US for consumption after the deadline and there was no similar “in-transit” exclusion (see Exhibit 1).

Exhibit 1: The Recent Notice Includes an “In-Transit” Exception

2. This technical detail might create a limited window for negotiations to continue before the US places Customs duties on imports from China. If the tariff increase technically goes into effect at midnight tonight, the duty collections might not rise for about two weeks, or whenever shipments leaving China on May 10 arrive at US ports. In our view, this means that trade negotiations are more likely to continue over the next couple of weeks than if the potential tariff increase in May was a “hard” deadline.

3. This nuance might also result in slightly less downside to sentiment regarding the US-China trade outlook than if 12:01 a.m. Friday was a “hard” deadline. That said, events over the next week could pose risks in both directions if the tariff increase takes effect on May 10. Even though we expect that talks might continue, the US Trade Representative’s office also looks likely to release a proposal to apply 25% tariffs on the remaining roughly $300bn of imports from China not yet subject to tariff if the May 10 tariff hike takes effect.

That’s the good news. There is some potentially worse news as Phillips explains below, and it involves an escalating tit-for-tat retaliation:

4. China would also likely move forward with retaliatory tariffs. China has already announced it will retaliate if the US follows through with its tariff rate hike to 25%. In September, China had announced tariffs on about $60bn of imports from the US at rates of 5%, 10%, 20% and 25%. However, China ultimately imposed the tariffs at a rate of 5-10%. In our view, Chinese retaliation could take the form of increasing these tariff rates (such as to 25%). In addition, China may reimpose additional tariffs on US autos and auto parts, which it has suspended since December 14.

Needless to say, should China pursue a retaliatory route, Trump’s willingness and ability to compromise would be severely curtailed and the outcome would be the worst possible from a game theory perspective.  At least that’s the theory, for what happens in practice, tune in one minute after midnight for the official announcement.

 

*  *  *

With just a few short hours until Washington unleashes the next round of tariffs, all it took was a tweet from Fox Business to spike futures…

Edward Lawrence tweeted that: “Exclusive: President Trump meeting with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin & US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer right now. They are talking about the trade talk progress ahead of tariffs being upped on the Chinese.

Edward Lawrence

@NewsEdward

Exclusive: President Trump meeting with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin & US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer right now. They are talking about the trade talk progress ahead of tariffs being upped on the Chinese.

Not exactly earth-shattering, but enough for Johnny-5 and his algo friends to lift Dow futures 200 points…

Additionally, Vice President Mike Pence said Thursday the Trump administration is working “literally hour by hour” to reach a trade agreement with China, as the deadline loomed on a U.S. threat to raise tariffs on Chinese imports.

Larry Kudlow has been oddly quiet – perhaps they are resting him just in case of a bloodbath tomorrow?

end

Midnight THURSDAY NIGHT/Friday 12:01 am

USA hikes Chinese tariffs after the talks result in no progress and China vows to retaliate

(courtesy zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

Mises’s Pickering lays out what is the best outcome for Britain and that is a no deal Brexit.  Britain would be able to deal with the rest of the world with cheaper costs.  Also she could get rid of those bothersome high regulatory problems facing all members of the EU.  The problem of course is that goods to the EU will be higher but Britain can deal with it

(courtesy Pickering//Mises)

Brexit’s Downsides Are Caused by Our Own Government

Authored by George Pickering via The Mises Institute,

Of all the many failures of Theresa May’s management of Brexit so far, none is so symbolic as the fact that the UK is currently preparing to participate in EU Parliament elections on May 23rd, even though Britain was originally scheduled to leave the European Union in March. This very public symbol of the failure of May’s Brexit strategy — to which she agreed as a condition of the current ‘flexible extension’ of the UK’s EU membership until at least October 31st — has not only caused a near-total breakdown of support for May’s leadership from within her own party, but has also led to a widespread surge of public interest in third parties.

Most notably, Nigel Farage has emerged from dormancy to become the leader of the newly-formed ‘Brexit Party’, which has shocked pundits by surging to first place in the pre-election polling. One recent poll indicates that as much as 30% of the British public intends to vote for the Brexit Party in the upcoming EU elections, fully 9% ahead of their closest rival, and over 20% ahead of the new pro-EU party ‘Change UK’, which was formed at around the same time as the Brexit Party and received equivalent if not greater media attention.

This fracturing of Britain’s usual two-party paradigm is certainly a welcome trend, especially given the Brexit Party’s explicit support for a ‘hard’, no-deal Brexit, which I have argued in previous Mises Wire articles would be the least-worst option. However, if the Brexit party do receive as much of the final vote as the polls are predicting, it will likely re-spark the public debate about the benefits and drawbacks of a no-deal Brexit, and when that debate arrives it will be important for no-deal advocates to have their argument straight about what those benefits and drawbacks are.

While it might be tempting to portray no-deal as an unambiguously positive scenario, the reality is that an institutional disruption of that kind will not be without its difficulties, and no-deal advocates might appear discredited if they attempt to deny or ignore these. The important point which no-deal advocates should understand before crafting their arguments is that, even though there probably will be some negative consequences of a no-deal Brexit, those negative consequences would exclusively be penalties and restrictions arbitrarily inflicted by governments, rather than inherent problems with Brexit per se.

For a concrete example, one need look no further than arguably the central issue of the Brexit negotiations: tariffs. The European Union is defined by the punitively-high trade wall erected around its borders, which inflicts all manner of taxes and restrictions on imports and exports to and from the bloc. When Britain finally does exit the tariff wall, its trade with the rest of the world will certainly be benefitted, allowing a greater number of international goods to be imported and sold at lower prices, and making British goods competitive abroad. However, the other side of the coin is that Britain will now be outside the EU’s wall, and so will have to pay those high tariffs when trading with the EU. While this would admittedly be a downside to a no-deal Brexit, it is important to emphasise that there is no inescapable law of nature which dictates that the EU has to maintain those tariffs, nor is it simply an existential fact of the universe that countries which leave the EU must be excluded from the single market. In other words, yes, the tariffs will inflict economic harm on Britain, but the culprit is the tariffs themselves, not Brexit. If Brexiteers emphasise this fact rather than trying to deny or ignore it, they might not only avoid appearing discredited when the negative consequences do arrive, but also manage to promote public understanding and discussion of this important economic issue.

It would likewise be tempting for Brexiteers to place the blame entirely on policies inflicted by the EU bureaucracy, but the truth is that harmful post-Brexit policies are equally likely to be imposed by the UK’s own government. This is particularly true for the issue of ‘regulatory harmonization’. Although UK policymakers had initially been considering significant deregulation as a possibility in the case of a no-deal Brexit, this option was taken off the table due to Theresa May’s commitment to transpose the bulk of EU regulations into British law. This would mean that, even in the event of a no-deal Brexit, UK consumers would miss out on the economic boost and quality of life improvements that could otherwise have resulted from abandoning burdensome and unnecessary EU regulations. Again however, the key point is that the true culprit is the policy of regulation itself, not Brexit, and Brexiteers should be no less quick to point this out simply because the source of the harmful policy is the UK government, rather than the EU.

Once Brexiteers adopt this shift in perspective, it becomes clear that the vast majority of the difficulties and downsides surrounding Brexit – from the disagreements surrounding the rights of UK citizens living in the EU, to the general economic uncertainty during this negotiation period, and so on – are actually the result of unsound policies, negotiating strategies, and demands being made by the governments involved, rather than inherent flaws in the idea of Brexit itself, or decentralization more broadly.

While some readers might regard this sort of distinction as nit-picking, its significance is that it has the potential to shift Brexiteers away from the hopeless position of trying to argue that a no-deal Brexit would have no downsides, back toward the broader task of pointing out the harmful consequences of EU policies, and of State intervention in general, which is an argument they have a much better chance of winning.

 

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

CYPRUS/TURKEY/EUROPE/ISRAEL

This is becoming quite explosive as Cyprus slams potential Turkish oil and gas drilling in areas controlled by Greek/Cyprus.   They demand EU action

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Second Invasion”: Cyprus Slams Turkish Oil & Gas Drilling, Urges EU Action

The president of Cyprus Nicos Anastasiades has slammed Turkey for its “unprecedented escalation of illegal action” which constitutes a“second invasion” in the eastern Mediterranean, blaming Ankara of illegally drilling inside its exclusive economic zone.

Cyprus has this week raised the issue in an informal European Council meeting in Sibiu, Romania, with European Council President Donald Tusk planning to make official comments on the matter. EU leaders are also set to consider Cyprus’ allegations during meetings at the end of May and in June, which Cypriots fear could merely be more European lip service on the matter.

 

Prior file photo of Turkish ship inside Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), via The National Herald

Also on Thursday UK Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt also expressed Britain is “concerned by Turkey’s announcement to begin drilling in Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone,” according to Reuters. “This situation must be deescalated and all parties show restraint,” he said. “Hydrocarbons development should benefit all Cypriots and support a settlement,” the foreign secretary added.

Both the internationally recognized Greek Cypriot government and Turkey – which occupies northern Cyprus – have overlapping claims of jurisdiction for offshore oil and gas research in the natural gas-rich eastern Mediterranean.

Turkey says it’s adhering to international law, to which Cypriot government spokesman Prodromos Prodromou responded by calling out“Turkey’s blatant and unprecedented violations” of Cyprus’ exclusive zone.

Prodromou said that both Anastasiades’ and European People’s Party leadership “condemn the Turkish intervention (and) call on Turkey to abandon these illegal activities.” Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras added that the crisis was “a European issue and not just a Cypriot one,” adding that “international law cannot be violated.”

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has recently been provocatively sending  warships near Cypriot waters in order to ward off foreign competition to oil and gas research, according to Cypriot officials, also seeking to bar Cypriot ships and planes from freely traversing its own European recognized waters.

But Erdogan is also bumping up against other Mediterranean countries’ plans in the region — at a moment he’s engaged in multiple crises both domestic and related to the West  even as Turkey has long sought EU membership, per Haaretz:

[Turkey] threatens to upset all the plans Israel, Egypt and Cyprus have for exploiting the vast natural gas resources of the Eastern Mediterranean.

The latest installment of the gas crisis started last Friday when Turkey’s foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, said the Turkish seismic research vessel Barbaros Hayrettin Pasa would be drilling for oil and gas “in areas of Turkey’s continental shelf.”

Turkey has in the past demanded that Cyprus formally recognize the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (since 1974) and allow it to share revenues from Cypriot gas exploration.

Furthermore Turkey has laid claim to a waters extending a whopping 200 miles from its coast, brazenly asserting ownership over a swathe of the Mediterranean that even cuts into Greece’s exclusive economic zone.

Cyprus has also tried to drill exploratory wells in what it and the rest of the world, except Turkey, says is its own maritime zone, but Turkish warships scared off its vessels the last time it tried to do so in February last year. — EU Observer

Marco Florian Balkans & EastMed 🇮🇹🇺🇸🇪🇺@MarcoFlorianMED

🇨🇾🇹🇷If true, this is an unacceptable violation of any international rule.
According to the Cyrpus Times, the TDK (the Turkish Navy sends warships with license to fire, to “protect” TPAO drillship executing illegal exploration activity in CY EEZ.
https://english.cyprustimes.com/cyprus/news/turkey-dispatches-warships-to-cyprus-eez-with-orders-to-fire/ 

Turkey dispatches warships to Cyprus EEZ with orders to fire |

Find breaking News, health, sports, weather, politics, economy, culture, lifestyle, entertainment, events, crime video

english.cyprustimes.com

See Marco Florian Balkans & EastMed 🇮🇹🇺🇸🇪🇺‘s other Tweets

Such claims have been condemned by the US, European Union, and Egypt, with NATO officials recently signalling to Turkey that it was out of line. This as Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu confirmed last week that “we are starting drilling” in the region.

Should the Turkish military attempt to enforce its drilling claims and run up against Cypriot and Greek vessels, it could spark a deadly encounter which would force the EU and NATO to finally weigh in more forcefully.

END
Bolton held an extremely rare meeting on Iran at CIA headquarters.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Bolton Held “Extremely Rare” Iran Meeting At CIA Headquarters

NBC has revealed that national security adviser John Bolton convened what was described as a “highly unusual” meeting at CIA headquarters last week to discuss Iran among top intelligence, diplomatic and military advisers.

The outside-the-norm nature of the meeting hearkens back to the Bush-Cheney White House’s direct intervention over Iraq intelligence in the lead-up to the 2003 invasion, which involved the VP and his staff making multiple personal visits to CIA headquarters and Pentagon to pressure the intel analysts into conforming to a preferred “narrative”.

Such meetings, NBC noted, are typically held in the White House Situation Room, especially given the involvement of State Dept. and military leaders. “The six current officials, as well as multiple former officials, said it is extremely rare for senior White House officials or Cabinet members to attend a meeting at CIA headquarters,” the report said.

“The meeting was held at 7 a.m. on Monday, April 29, and included CIA Director Gina Haspel, Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joe Dunford, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, five of the officials said,” reported NBC.

The officials interviewed expressly denied the meeting was about the recent intelligence touted by Bolton as precipitating the carrier strike group deployment to the Persian Gulf region under CENTCOM, and did not provide details.

 

CIA Director Gina Haspel, via the WSJ

The intelligence officials further said there could be two likely factors at play. Such rare meetings at CIA headquarters could involve briefings on “highly sensitive covert actions or another scenario could involve deep disagreement at the highest levels over what the intelligence actually shows. 

As part of its report NBC identified “a seasoned intelligence officer, Mike D’Andrea” as overseeing the CIA’s Iran operations, who previously helped lead the hunt for bin Laden and al-Qaeda operatives.

 

end

Iran/USA

Iran threatens to destroy the USS Lincoln which is passing through the Suez Canal right now if it proceeds through the Straits of Hormuz

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Billion-Dollar Fleet Destroyed With One Missile” – Iran Cleric Threatens To Sink US Carrier

At a moment the US carrier strike group ordered deployed to the CENTOM Persian Gulf region area of command has traversed the Suez Canal, and as multiple B-52 bombers have also landed in Qatar in response to “troubling and escalatory” threats by Iran against US troops in the region, a top American military commander in the region has threatened he’s ready to send an aircraft carrier through the vital Strait of Hormuz “if needed”.

But should the US send a carrier through the key narrow oil shipping Persian Gulf choke point which is routinely patrolled by IRGC boats, one senior cleric has vowed the US Navy’s

“Billion-dollar fleet can be destroyed with one missile” — according to Iran’s ISNA News Agency

 

The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln entering the Mediterranean Sea earlier this week on is way to the Persian Gulf. Image source: US Navy

Vice Admiral Jim Malloy, commander of the US Navy’s Bahrain-based Fifth Fleet, made the statements to Reuters on Friday.

He oversees all US naval forces in the Middle East, and at the very moment the USS Abraham Lincoln Nimitz-class carrier makes its way into the area, the commander said“If I need to bring it inside the strait, I will do so.” He added, “I’m not restricted in any way, I’m not challenged in any way, to operate her anywhere in the Middle East.”

He didn’t specifically name the USS Abraham Lincoln during the telephone interview, but certainly the remarks were intentionally timed as a part of the White House’s ongoing “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran.

Iran, for its part, has dismissed the “deployment” and the underlying threat Bolton touted Sunday night as requiring a response as “fake intelligence” and part of a US “psychological warfare” campaign – further noting the carrier strike group’s embarkation was pre-scheduled and merely used as a pretext for escalating threats.

Of the latest claims that credible intelligence indicates Iranian actions against Americans in the region could be imminent, Malloy said the intelligence was linked “with actual activity that we observed.”

“And that was certainly enough for me… to say that we saw this as a threat,” he said. Addressing the question of Iranian ICBM’s and recent statements of intelligence officials saying they’d observed Iran transferring missiles on boats, the top admiral said further, “It might be a new fielding of technology by Iran,” Malloy said, adding the weaponry “falls under the category of destabilizing and offensive in nature.”

Meanwhile, on Tuesday US defense officials indicated a number of B-52 bombers would be part of “additional forces” sent to the region in response to the new intelligence demanding heightened readiness against Iran.

US CENTCOM posted images confirming the bombers’ arrival this week to its official social media accounts. The images showed B-52 Stratofortress bombers landing in Qatar.

U.S. Central Command

@CENTCOM

U.S. B-52H aircraft assigned to 20th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron arrived in CENTCOM AOR May 8. The Bomber Task Force is deployed here to defend American forces and interests in the region. For more photos go to http://ow.ly/Jouj50u3YKo

Meanwhile, even after all this Trump in somewhat off-the-cuff remarks said Iran should call him if its leaders want to talk, and further said he doesn’t ultimately want military confrontation.

Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responded to the statement on Friday, rejecting any possibility of talks while a military threat looms.

“No talks will be held with the Americans and the Americans will not dare take military action against us,” Yadollah Javani, the Guards’ deputy head for political affairs, said according to Tasnim. “Our nation… sees America as unreliable.”

end

TURKEY

This is interesting: at first the Lira skyrocketed in value with a report that Turkey will not buy the Russian S400 but the Bild report was later denied.

It would not make sense for Turkey to shun the East as it takes on the West

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Lira Slides After Turkey Denies Bild Report Ankara Won’t Buy Russian S-400 System

Update: Just as we warned earlier, when we said the Bild report was fake news, moments ago Turkey has confirmed just that:

  • ERDOGAN COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR DENIES BILD REPORT ON S-400
  • TURKEY’S ALTUN SAYS S-400 PROCUREMENT IS A DONE DEAL

Fahrettin Altun

@fahrettinaltun

Dear Julian,

Your sources are mistaken.

Take it from me: The S-400 procurement is a done deal.

Julian Röpcke

@JulianRoepcke

Scoop
Diplomatic sources tell @BILD, Erdogan will not buy the S-400 from Russia. https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/keine-waffenlieferung-aus-russland-s-400-deal-gestoppt-61819588.bild.html 

And yet, despite the denials, the lira is refusing to slide back to where it was trading before the Bild BS, and the USDTRY is trading at 6.03, well below the 6.08 is traded at ahead of the report.

* * *

Only hours after Turkish commercial banks were caught selling dollars to limit the ongoing rout in the Turkish currency, whose central bank has yet to provide a clear explanation, or picture, of just what its FX reserves are ex swaps now that it has spent tens of billions in US dollars to defend the lira, so far with little success, German tabloid Bild reports that contrary to Erdogan’s repeated claims otherwise, Ankara will end up canceling the delivery of the Russian S-400 missile defense system to which the US has repeatedly objected.

That a German tabloid can so easily move what has been the second worst-performing, and extremely volatile EM currency this year (after the ARS), is not a surprise.  After all there is a mountain of shorts on top of the TRY. But speaking of mountains, apply precisely such an amount of salt to the Bild report, because only on Sunday, Turkey Vice President Fuat Oktay said Turkey “will never bow to U.S. sanctions over its agreement to purchase Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile defense systems.”

Quoted by Reuters earlier this week when speaking to broadcaster Kanal 7, Oktay said the U.S. concerns over the deal between Russia and Turkey are unreasonable and that the planned July delivery date for the S-400s remained unchanged.  “When Turkey signs an agreement, Turkey keeps its promise. We signed this agreement and certain payments were made,” Oktay said. “I don’t think the arguments and concerns here have a lot to lean on,”

Turkey also said it expected President Trump to use a waiver to protect it against penalties over the S-400s, after U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Ankara could face retribution for the deal under the U.S. Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

In any case, the Lira has surged more than 3% since hitting overnight lows, with the USDTRY tumbling from 6.25 to as low as 5.96 before humans took over the robots and starting shorting the Turkish currency; even so,thanks to the bank intervention and what will soon be confirmed to be fake German tabloid news, the lira is the best performing of all 24 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg, and on track to erase weekly losses.

END

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

Sweden

Strange: The government at first  desired a cashless Sweden and in the last few years, the amount of notes in circulation decreased.  Now the Government wants its citizens to hoard cash in case of a cyber attack or war.

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Cashless” Sweden Suddenly Warns Citizens: Hoard Banknotes & Coins In Case Of Cyber-Attack Or War

For years, we have commented on the Swedish government and the Riksbank pushing for a “cashless society.”

The Riksbank has over 1,000 articles posted on its website on the “cashless society“. The emphasis worked: between 2013 and 2017, the amount of cash in circulation dropped by 35%, earning Sweden a reputation as the world’s “most cashless nation”:

Many of Sweden’s bank branches had stopped handling cash altogether.

Figures from the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm show that only 18% of all payments made today in Sweden are in cash – a 15% drop from the previous year. Meanwhile figures from the Swedish Trade Federation show that most Swedish retailers say that 80% of their commerce is from card payments. A number that probably will be 90% by 2020. Such is the appetite for digital commerce in Sweden that many predicted it could become the world’s first cashless society.

But, nowas The Daily Mail reports,  The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, an arm of the government, has sent guidance to every home telling residents to squirrel away “cash in small denominations” in case of emergencies ranging from power cuts or technology glitches to terrorism, cyber-attacks by a rogue government or war.

Riksbank, the country’s central bank, last week called for an inquiry into the risks posed by a future cashless society.

Officials told parliament that hard cash was important “not just in times of crisis and war, but also in peacetime.”

In December, Britain’s Access to Cash Review warned that Britain too was ‘sleepwalking into a cashless society’, the Daily Mail reported.

Chair Natalie Ceeney said, “If we don’t take action now in this country, we’re only a couple of years away from Sweden.”

“Sweden’s big message to us is, ‘Plan now before you get into a mess’.” Sweden hit its crisis when its equivalent of the NHS declared it was going cashless.”

As the age of NIRP “gradually” comes to a close, much of the excitement about ushering in a cashless nirvana appears to be fading with it. Following on the heels of comments by senior ECB board members in defense of cashas well as an open admission by the European Commission that physical cash is perhaps not quite the source of all evil, the Riksbank’s decision to safeguard the role of cash in the financial economy is the biggest sign yet that Europe is giving up on its war on cash, and is instead allowing people switch to cashless payments systems at their own pace, however long that may take.

But now that the world’s bankers are pivoting back to their dovish stance, how long before the return to NIRP (or ZIRP in the US) prompts a renwed war on cash?

end

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

VENEZUELA

 

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1232 UP .0014 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.73 DOWN 0.084 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3012   UP   0.0002  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3471 DOWN .0084 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 9 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  FALLING to 1.1189 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 88.26 POINTS OR 2.10% 

 

 

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 239.17 POINTS OR 0.84%

 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .25%// EUROPEAN BOURSES RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 57.21 POINTS OR 0.27% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 239.17 POINTS OF 0.84% 

 

 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 88.26 POINTS OR 2.10% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .25% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 57.21  POINTS OR 0.27%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1286.25

silver:$14.78

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.45% !!! DOWN 0 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.87 DOWN 0  IN BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 97.36 DOWN 2 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.12%  UP 0 in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.05%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.98% DOWN 1   IN basis point yield from THURSDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.68 UP 0  POINT in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 170 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS –.05%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.73% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1235  UP     .0017 or 17 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.70 DOWN .126 OR YEN UP 13  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3025 UP .0017 POUND UP 17  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 37 basis points to 1.3428

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8261    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8569  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REAL DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.2288 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.05%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 0 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.44 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.87 UP 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.26  DOWN 12  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 4.12  0.06%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 85.91 POINTS OR 0.72%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 14,28 POINTS OR 0.27%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 22.30 POINTS or 0.25%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 57.62 POINTS OR 0,28%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 61.90 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 70.86 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.17  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.08 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 08 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.05 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  61.56

 

 

BRENT :  70.67

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.46…   STILL DEADLY//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.88..VERY DEADLY

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1230 ( UP 12   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.92 UP .096 (YEN DOWN 10 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.31 DOWN 6 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.3002 DOWN 6  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.0119

 

the Russian rouble 65.10   UP 0.15 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 15 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3413 UP 53 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8261  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly.

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8441 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly.

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.05%

 

The Dow closed  UP 113.87 POINTS OR 0.44%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 6.35 POINTS OR 0.08%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  16.74 CLOSED DOWN 2.36

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.535%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.545

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Trade Turmoil Sparks Worst Week Of 2019, Wipes Over $2 Trillion Off Global Stocks

A couple of tweets, and just like that $2.5 trillion of global equity market cap evaporates…

As stocks went from ‘everything is awesome’ to the worst week of the year in an instant…

With global money supply failing to support the illusion…

As stocks began to catch down to the far less exuberant global systemically important banks…

*  *  *

China’s National Team refused to let stocks fall overnight (following the tariffs) and obviously lifted the market dramatically. However, it was still the worst week of the year…

 

An ugly week in Europe too with France and Italy worst…

 

The week in US equity markets has been dominated by algos chasing headlines about trade talks with dead cat bounces giving way to reality checks…

NOTE – today’s “constructive” talks headline prompted the 4th biggest buy program of the month (PPT?).

Notice that the market turned around when the world’s biggest money-losing IPO opened…

It seems it took the algos a long time to actually read He’s and Mnuchin’s comments:

  • Liu He: “No talks are scheduled from here”
  • Steve Mnuchin: “No future talks planned as of now”

But when they did, stocks rolled over…

 

Smells like PPT turned up after Mnuchin’s comments as VIX flash-crashed (signaled) at 0830ET today then fell after Mnuchin’s comments…

 

VIX has been inverted all 5 days this week…

 

Prompting a huge short-squeeze lift. just like on Monday (fail) and Thursday (fail)…

 

This is the seventh Friday in a row where a sudden panic bid lifted stocks…

 

The Dow ended below its 50DMA for the 3rd day in a row but the rest of the majors scrambled back above the key technical level…

DMA

 

And then of course, there’s Uber…

 

Second worst week of the year for credit markets…

 

Treasury yields fell across the curve this week but the long-end notably underperformed…

 

The Dollar ended the week unchanged…

 

Yuan fell all week…biggest weekly drop in yuan against the dollar since June 2018

 

Yuan tumbled to 4-month lows…

 

Bitcoin soared on the week, along with Ethereum…

 

Bitcoin rallied above $6400 as trade tensions escalate…

 

Despite the dollar’s flat week, silver slumped and crude managed gains…

 

And finally, it appears “constructive” is the new ‘put’…

Headline-Cha

 

Market trading: Today

Dow Scrambles Into Green After Coordinated “Constructive” Jawboning

Mnuchin said trade talks were “constructive” igniting the momentum, Liu He said talks went “fairly well”, and the editor of The Global Times said trade talks did not break down; and that was enough to lift The Dow 350 points back into the green…

On the back of a big short squeeze

…well, it is Friday!

end

ii)Market data/

 

END

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

SWAMP STORIES

The true store behind the Steele dossier: how claims are now debunked and how leaks were perpetrated before the FISA application had actually begun

(zerohedge)

 

FBI’s Steele Story Unravels – Claims Debunked, Leaks Suspected Before FISA Application

According to newly unearthed memos which were retroactively classified by the DOJa high-ranking government official who met with Christopher Steele in October 2016 determined that information in the Trump-Russia dossier was inaccurate, and likely leaked to the media, according to The Hill‘s John Solomon.

Ten days before the FBI used the now-discredited dossier to apply for a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrant to spy on Trump campaign aide Carter Page, Steele met with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Kathleen Kavalec, who took handwritten notes of the encounter.

Steele told Kavalec that Russia had a “technical/human operation run out of Moscow targeting the election,” which recruited US emigres to “do hacking and recruiting. Steele added that “Payments to those recruited are made out of the Russian consulate in Miami.” 

Except that’s a lie – as Kavalec debunked the assertion in a bracketed comment: “It is important to note that there is no Russian consulate in Miami.

Kavalec, two days later and well before the FISA warrant was issued, forwarded her typed summary to other government officials. The State Department has redacted the names and agencies of everyone she alerted.

But it is almost certain the FBI knew of Steele’s contact with State and his partisan motive. That’s because former Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland says she instructed her staff to send the information they got from Steele to the bureau immediately and to cease contact with the informer because “this is about U.S. politics, and not the work of — not the business of the State Department, and certainly not the business of a career employee who is subject to the Hatch Act.” –The Hill

What makes this particularly damning is that the FBI swore on October 21, 2016 to the FISA judges that Steele’s “reporting has been corroborated and used in criminal proceedings,” and that the FBI deemed him to be “reliable” and was “unaware of any derogatory information pertaining” to the former British spy who was working for Fusion GPS – the firm paid by the DNC and the Clinton campaign to come up with dirt on Donald Trump. 

As we noted yesterday based on an earlier Hill report on the Kavalec-Steele notes, Steele was flagged for admitting that his research was political and facing an Election Day deadline, as his client was “keen to see this information come to light prior to November 8.”

Notes and testimony from senior Justice Department official Bruce Ohr make clear Steele admitted early on that he was “desperate” to get Trump defeated in the election, was working in some capacity for the GOP candidate’s opponent, and considered his intelligence raw and untested. Ohr testified that he alerted FBI and other senior Justice officials to these concerns in August 2016. –The Hill

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

“This British Spy, Christopher Steele, tried so hard to get this (the Fake Dossier) out before the Election. Why?” @kilmeade @foxandfriends

Kavalec also flagged several places in her notes in which she suspected that Steele might be leaking information to the press

“June — reporting started,” she wrote. “NYT and WP have,” she added, in an apparent reference to The New York Times and The Washington Post.

She then quoted Steele as indicating that he was “managing” four priorities — “Client needs, FBI, WashPo/NYT, source protection,” – a clear indication that media outreach was part of his job. 

Those same notes suggest Steele spun some wild theories to State, including one that the Russians had a “plant in DNC” and had assembled an “HRC dossier,” apparent references to the Democratic National Committee and Clinton.

She expounded in her typed memo. “The Russians have succeeded in placing an agent inside the DNC,” she quoted Steele as saying.

Steele offered Kavalec other wild information that easily could have been debunked before the FISA application — and eventually was, in many cases, after the media reported the allegations — including that:

  • Trump lawyer Michael Cohen traveled to Prague to meet with Russians;
  • Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort owed the Russians $100 million and was the “go-between” from Russian President Vladimir Putin to Trump;
  • Trump adviser Carter Page met with a senior Russian businessman tied to Putin;
  • The Russians secretly communicated with Trump through a computer system. –The Hill

Those rumors were debunked by Special counsel Robert Mueller’s April report, despite barely mentioning Steele and a passing reference to his infamous dossier being “unverified.”

Except that the FBI’s FISA request from October 2016 – which relied almost entirely on Steele’s work – was marked “verified application” prior to the FBI’s submission to the court. 

Eventually, Steele was fired to the FBI for leaking to the media and then lying about it – however that happened after the FISA warrant was approved – and according to The Hill, the court was not notified about it until a few months later, well after the election.

In short, the FBI undoubtedly lied to their teeth to the FISA court in order to obtain a warrant to surveil Carter Page and the Trump campaign.

END

Craig Murray takes on whether it was the Russians that hacked the DNC.  He and others state that it was not the Russians

(courtesy Craig Murray)

Craig Murray: The Real Muellergate Scandal

Authored by Craig Murray,

Robert Mueller is either a fool, or deeply corrupt. I do not think he is a fool.

I did not comment instantly on the Mueller Report as I was so shocked by it, I have been waiting to see if any other facts come to light in justification. Nothing has. I limit myself here to that area of which I have personal knowledge – the leak of DNC and Podesta emails to Wikileaks. On the wider question of the corrupt Russian 1% having business dealings with the corrupt Western 1%, all I have to say is that if you believe that is limited in the USA by party political boundaries, you are a fool.

On the DNC leak, Mueller started with the prejudice that it was “the Russians” and he deliberately and systematically excluded from evidence anything that contradicted that view.

Mueller, as a matter of determined policy, omitted key steps which any honest investigator would undertake. He did not commission any forensic examination of the DNC servers. He did not interview Bill Binney. He did not interview Julian Assange. His failure to do any of those obvious things renders his report worthless.

There has never been, by any US law enforcement or security service body, a forensic examination of the DNC servers, despite the fact that the claim those servers were hacked is the very heart of the entire investigation. Instead, the security services simply accepted the “evidence” provided by the DNC’s own IT security consultants, Crowdstrike, a company which is politically aligned to the Clintons.

That is precisely the equivalent of the police receiving a phone call saying:

“Hello? My husband has just been murdered. He had a knife in his back with the initials of the Russian man who lives next door engraved on it in Cyrillic script. I have employed a private detective who will send you photos of the body and the knife. No, you don’t need to see either of them.”

There is no honest policeman in the world who would agree to that proposition, and neither would Mueller were he remotely an honest man.

Two facts compound this failure.

The first is the absolutely key word of Bill Binney, former Technical Director of the NSA, the USA’s $14 billion a year surveillance organisation. Bill Binney is an acknowledged world leader in cyber surveillance, and is infinitely more qualified than Crowdstrike. Bill states that the download rates for the “hack” given by Crowdstrike are at a speed – 41 Megabytes per second – that could not even nearly be attained remotely at the location: thus the information must have been downloaded to a local device, eg a memory stick. Binney has further evidence regarding formatting which supports this.

Mueller’s identification of “DC Leaks” and “Guccifer 2.0” as Russian security services is something Mueller attempts to carry off by simple assertion. Mueller shows DNC Leaks to have been the source of other, unclassified emails sent to Wikileaks that had been obtained under a Freedom of Information request and then Mueller simply assumes, with no proof, the same route was used again for the leaked DNC material. His identification of the Guccifer 2.0 persona with Russian agents is so flimsy as to be laughable. Nor is there any evidence of the specific transfer of the leaked DNC emails from Guccifer 2.0 to Wikileaks. Binney asserts that had this happened, the packets would have been instantly identifiable to the NSA.

Bill Binney is not a “deplorable”. He is the former Technical Director of the NSA. Mike Pompeo met him to hear his expertise on precisely this matter. Binney offered to give evidence to Mueller. Yet did Mueller call him as a witness? No. Binney’s voice is entirely unheard in the report.

Mueller’s refusal to call Binney and consider his evidence was not the action of an honest man.

The second vital piece of evidence we have is from Wikileaks Vault 7 release of CIA material, in which the CIA themselves outline their capacity to “false flag” hacks, leaving behind misdirecting clues including scraps of foreign script and language. This is precisely what Crowdstrike claim to have found in the “Russian hacking” operation.

So here we have Mueller omitting the key steps of independent forensic examination of the DNC servers and hearing Bill Binney’s evidence. Yet this was not for lack of time. While deliberately omitting to take any steps to obtain evidence that might disprove the “Russian hacking” story, Mueller had boundless time and energy to waste in wild goose chases after totally non-existent links between Wikileaks and the Trump campaign, including the fiasco of interviewing Roger Stone and Randy Credico.

It is worth remembering that none of the charges against Americans arising from the Mueller inquiry have anything to do with Russian collusion or Trump-Wikileaks collusion, which simply do not exist. The charges all relate to entirely extraneous matters dug up, under the extraordinary US system of “Justice”, to try to blackmail those charged with unrelated crimes turned up by the investigation, into fabricating evidence of Russian collusion. The official term for this process of blackmail is of course “plea-bargaining.”

Mueller has indicted 12 Russians he alleges are the GRU agents responsible for the “hack”. The majority of these turn out to be real people who, ostensibly, have jobs and lives which are nothing to do with the GRU. Mueller was taken aback when, rather than simply being in absentia, a number of them had representation in court to fight the charges. Mueller had to back down and ask for an immediate adjournment as soon as the case opened, while he fought to limit disclosure. His entire energies since on this case have been absorbed in submitting motions to limit disclosure, individual by individual, with the object of ensuring that the accused Russians can be convicted without ever seeing, or being able to reply to, the evidence against them. Which is precisely the same as his attitude to contrary evidence in his Report.

Mueller’s failure to examine the servers or take Binney’s evidence pales into insignificance compared to his attack on Julian Assange. Based on no conclusive evidence, Mueller accuses Assange of receiving the emails from Russia. Most crucially, he did not give Assange any opportunity to answer his accusations. For somebody with Mueller’s background in law enforcement, declaring somebody in effect guilty, without giving them any opportunity to tell their side of the story, is plain evidence of malice.

Inexplicably, for example, the Mueller Report quotes a media report of Assange stating he had “physical proof” the material did not come from Russia, but Mueller simply dismisses this without having made any attempt at all to ask Assange himself.

It is also particularly cowardly as Julian was and is held incommunicado with no opportunity to defend himself. Assange has repeatedly declared the material did not come from the Russian state or from any other state. He was very willing to give evidence to Mueller, which could have been done by video-link, by interview in the Embassy or by written communication. But as with Binney and as with the DNC servers, the entirely corrupt Mueller was unwilling to accept any evidence which might contradict his predetermined narrative.

Mueller’s section headed “The GRU’s Transfer of Stolen Material to Wikileaks” is a ludicrous farrago of internet contacts between Wikileaks and persons not proven to be Russian, transferring material not proven to be the DNC leaks. It too is destroyed by Binney and so pathetic that, having pretended he had proven the case of internet transfer, Mueller then gives the game away by adding “The office cannot rule out that stolen documents were transferred by intermediaries who visited during the summer of 2016”. He names Mr Andrew Muller-Maguhn as a possible courier. Yet again, he did not ask Mr Muller-Maguhn to give evidence. Nor did he ask me, and I might have been able to help him on a few of these points.

To run an “investigation” with a pre-determined idea as to who are the guilty parties, and then to name and condemn those parties in a report, without hearing the testimony of those you are accusing, is a method of proceeding that puts the cowardly and corrupt Mr Mueller beneath contempt.

Mueller gives no evidence whatsoever to back up his simple statement that Seth Rich was not the source of the DNC leak. He accuses Julian Assange of “dissembling” by referring to Seth Rich’s murder. It is an interesting fact that the US security services have shown precisely the same level of interest in examining Seth Rich’s computers that they have shown in examining the DNC servers. It is also interesting that this murder features in a report of historic consequences like that of Mueller, yet has had virtually no serious resource put into finding the killer.

Mueller’s condemnation of Julian Assange for allegedly exploiting the death of Seth Rich, would be infinitely more convincing if the official answer to the question “who murdered Seth Rich?” was not “who cares?”.

end
An epic Jim Jordan:
(courtesy zerohedge)

I Will Not Yield” – In Epic Rant, Jim Jordan Accuses Dems Of Sweeping ‘Spygate’ Coverup

As Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee – led by Chairman Jerry Nadler – voted to hold AG William Barr in contempt on Wednesday, one Republican wasn’t having it.

During a heated diatribe during the vote, Jordan refused to yield and instead accused Democrats of trying to punish Barr for vowing to expose skullduggery by the Democrats and the Deep State during the campaign – particularly as it pertains to the provenance of the Russia collusion probe.

Jordan

When it came his turn to speak, Jordan laid out everything Barr had said about his efforts to investigate exactly how the Russia probe was initiated, and look into suspicions that senior FBI and DoJ officials colluded with the Democrats to create an “insurance policy” to stop Trump. Jordan accused the Democrats of trying to punish Barr for simply following the law, while covering up for the FBI’s malfeasance and politically motivated interference.

“He’s going to get to the bottom of everything, he’s going to find out how and why this investigation started in the first place. Never mind what he said three and a half weeks ago when he testified before the Senate Finance Committee. He said four very interest things: First he said there was a failure of leadership at the upper echelon of the FBI.”

Out of everything Barr has said during his appearances before Congress over the last month, Jordan focused on one: Barr’s claim that he has found evidence suggesting that “spying did occur,” and that said spying may have been politically motivated – a reference to what has become known as “spygate”.

“Second thing he said…spying did occur. Third, he said, there’s a basis for my concern about the spying that took place. And maybe the most interest thing – two terms he used that frankly I find frightening – he said in his judgment that it looks like there might have been unauthorized surveillance and political surveillance.”

During his speech, Jordan cited a 2017 interview with Senator Chuck Schumer on the Rachel Maddow show where he said “if you take on the intelligence community, they have six ways from Sunday for getting back at you.”

As far as Jordan can tell, the intelligence community took two concrete steps to try and get back at Trump for all of his deep state rhetoric.

“I don’t know if the FBI went after Trump in six ways, but they sure went after him in two ways. One was the dossier…the FBI used one party’s oppo research to get a warrant from a secret court to spy on another campaign.”

“When they went to the court they didn’t tell the court important things like who paid for it, that Christopher Steele had said he was desperate to stop Trump, and they didn’t tell them that Steele had been fired by the FBI because he was out talking to the press.”

The second was spying on the Trump campaign. To support this, Jordan referenced a New York Times story recounting an example of FBI spying on the Trump campaign.

“Second, just last Thursday, New York Times story, the FBI sent an investigator pretending to be somebody else to talk with George Papadopoulos who was working with the Trump campaign. You know what they call that? It’s called spying. Think about the term he used: Political surveillance.”

Asked to yield his time, Jordan replied “I will not yield.”

Unfortunately, Republicans weren’t able to stop the contempt vote from moving forward, but now that Trump has invoked executive privilege to protect the unredacted Mueller report and any related materials – which Democrats had demanded Barr release to them.

Watch Jordan’s speech below:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-10/i-will-not-yield-epic-rant-jim-jordan-accuses-dems-sweeping-spygate-coverup?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

Embedded video

Rep. Jim Jordan

@Jim_Jordan

Bill Barr is following the law. What’s his reward? Democrats are going to hold him in contempt.

end
The FBI/DNC’s sting operation against Papa D failed and here is the story:
 (courtesy zerohedge)

FBI Used Suitcase Stuffed With Cash During Papadopoulos Sting

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness blog,

Washington power couple Joe diGenova and Victoria Toensing appeared on Sebastian Gorka’s Salem Radio talk show “America First” Thursday, to talk about what they called a blatant FBI  sting operation against former Trump adviser George Papadopoulos.

During the show, Toensing, an attorney who partners with her husband at the Washington DC law firm diGenova & Toensing, accused the FBI of trying to frame Papadopoulos with a suitcase full of cash in the summer of 2017.

According to Toensing, Papa-D was vacationing with his then-fiance, Simona Mangiante, in Greece when he was approached by someone who was supposedly impressed with his credentials, and said he wanted to do business with him. The individual allegedly talked the then-29-year-old into traveling to Israel to make a deal, and invited him to his hotel room.

“And there on the bed, is $10,000 in cash in a suitcase,” she continued. Papadopoulos took the money and gave it to his lawyer, who has it still.

Toensing said when Papadopoulos returned to the United States, he was greeted by FBI agents at Dulles Airport and they started searching through everything that he had “the second he landed.”

She added, “in fact, they already had his baggage from the plane. He couldn’t believe they had his baggage.”

“It was a set up!” exclaimed Gorka.

“It was a complete set up,” agreed Toensing.

DiGenova explained that the Feds already knew that he hadn’t declared that he had $10,000 and were expecting to find the undeclared cash so they could arrest him and “put the thumbscrews on and make him squeal,” as Gorka put it.

Worst of all, according to Toensing, “one of the FBI agents said to him, ‘this is what happens when you work for Donald Trump.’”

Papadopoulos tweeted that he would like to see Congress investigate the money. “They are marked bills. They remain with my lawyer in Athens,” he said.

George Papadopoulos@GeorgePapa19

I want congress to investigate this money. They are marked bills. They remain with my lawyer in Athens. Follow the money!

Sebastian Gorka DrG

@SebGorka

Joe diGenova and Victoria Toensing explain how the FBI used $10,000 to try and set up @GeorgePapa19 in a blatant sting. Incredible corruption! https://youtu.be/53loJxfKt_s

Last August, the Daily Caller’s Chuck Ross interviewed the Israeli political strategist who set up the meeting between Papadopoulos and the Israeli oil consultant after he saw a court document filed by Special Counsel Robert Mueller referencing the $10,000 cash payment given to the former Trump adviser.

“The defendant provided information about $10,000 in cash he received from a foreign national whom he believed was likely an intelligence officer of a foreign country (other than Russia),” reads the court filing, which recommends a fine of between $500 and $9,500 for Papadopoulos.

“The defendant has stated that he kept that money in a safe pending his sentencing in this case and Counsel for the defendant has consented to the imposition of this fine amount,” it continued.

David Ha’ivri, the political strategist, told Ross that he introduced a man named Charles Tawil to Papadopoulos on his “own initiative” to work on a business deal “involving an oil and gas project in the Aegean and Mediterranean seas.”

Ha’ivri said that Tawil “is a part time consultant for companies that operate in Africa and Middle East” and that when he introduced Tawil to Papadopoulos, he was under the impression that the former Trump aide had “good connections” in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East.

Papadopoulos was arrested at Dulles International Airport on a return trip from overseas on July 27, 2017, according the the Daily Caller.

The acting director of the FBI from May 9, 2017 to August 2, 2017, was none other than Andrew McCabe, who was fired from the Bureau in March of 2018. The disgraced former Deputy FBI Director remains under investigation by federal prosecutors for leaking to the media and lying to investigators.

DiGenova and Toensing are convinced that Papadopoulos was the victim of a botched FBI sting operation and are disappointed that no one at the FBI blew the whistle on such nefarious activities.

“I hear all these people saying, ‘don’t blame the street agents,’ and that’s true generally, but here’s the truth,” he said.

“There were no whistleblowers in the FBI and the Department of Justice. Not a single agent, not a single career lawyer stood up and blew whistles on anybody.”

DiGenova noted that there were “agents in New York who knew stuff, who tried to complain to headquarters,” but because Main Justice was so corrupt, it went nowhere. “The truth is, there was no breakout of whisteblowers in the FBI. Even worse, he said, were the career prosecutors at the DOJ who knew what was going on, and said nothing.

“It is a disgrace that people who knew things didn’t say anything,” he lamented.

There has to be accountability for all this and the only way to have that is by a gigantic investigation into how it all happened–which means grand juries, indictments, if necessary,” diGenova added.

The three agreed that Attorney General William Barr is doing a fantastic job so far, but they had nothing good to say about the current FBI Director Christopher Wray.

“He’s an empty suit. Not only that, he’s disingenuous,” diGenova complained, pointing out that Wray has never bothered to address FBI employees about the Bureau’s alleged malfeasance during the 2016 campaign. “The only thing that Chris Wray has ever cared about is his next job,” he declared.

end

 

SWAMP STORIES/KEY STORIES/KING REPORT

(COURTESY OF CHRIS POWELL OF GATA)

he King Report May 10, 2019 Issue 6004                                                                                     Independent View of the News

North Korea fires 2 short-range missiles, 5 days after previous launch; US tests long-range missile within 10 minutes     https://www.foxnews.com/world/north-korea-launches-unidentified-projectile-in-second-firing-in-less-than-a-week

@JackPosobiec: North Korea doesn’t do anything without China’s signoff. The missile tests are back because of the trade pressure Trump is putting on Beijing to squeeze them into a recession

China mouthpiece @HuXijin_GT: Today, I asked one from Chinese side who knows the trade talks well, how many possibilities there still are to reach a deal before Friday. His answer is: 0. If it is that bad, the real suspense is whether the two sides will continue negotiations after Friday.

The above news pushed stocks lower globally on Thursday.  As the first hour was ending, traders engineered the standard first-hour reversal.  After an 11-handle ESM rally, stocks and ESMs began to vacillate.  At 11:17 ET the rally effort ended when BBG reported: China Mobile Barred from the U.S. Market over Espionage Concern

Solomon: FBI’s Steele story falls apart: False intel and media contacts were flagged before FISA

A high-ranking government official who met with Steele in October 2016 determined some of the Donald Trump dirt that Steele was simultaneously digging up for the FBI and for Hillary Clinton’s campaign wasinaccurate, and likely leaked to the media.

    The concerns were flagged in a typed memo and in handwritten notes taken by Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Kathleen Kavalec on Oct. 11, 2016… the FBI swore on Oct. 21, 2016, to the FISA judges that Steele’s “reporting has been corroborated and used in criminal proceedings” and the FBI has determined him to be “reliable” and was “unaware of any derogatory information pertaining” to their informant, who simultaneously worked for Fusion GPS, the firm paid by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and the Clinton campaign to find Russian dirt on Trump…

   She quoted Steele as saying, “Payments to those recruited are made out of the Russian Consulate in Miami,”… Kavalec bluntly debunked that assertion in a bracketed comment: “It is important to note that there is no Russian consulate in Miami.”… Later she quoted Steele as suggesting he was “managing” four priorities — “Client needs, FBI, WashPo/NYT, source protection,” her handwritten notes show…

    “The Russians have succeeded in placing an agent inside the DNC,” she quoted Steele as saying…

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/442944-fbis-steele-story-falls-apart-false-intel-and-media-contacts-were-flagged

 

@jsolomonReports [Last night]: FBI was alerted to State Department contact and concerns with Steele, Rep Mark Meadows reveals [Comey is in very deep legal trouble.]

 

@RudyGiuliani: The evidence is mounting that Comey deceived the FISA court concerning the Steele dossier. State did a quick verification and threw Steele out. Comey did no verification for 5 months and conducted an illicit SPYING OPERATION. Let’s see how long Dem media protects Comey.

 

Who Were the Mueller Report’s Hired Guns?

Special Counsel Robert Mueller spent more than $732,000 on outside contractors, including private investigators and researchers, records show, but his office refuses to say who they were… Mueller also hired contractors to compile “investigative reports” and other “information.”

    The arrangement has led congressional investigators, government watchdog groups and others to speculate that the private investigators and researchers who worked for the special counsel’s office might have included Christopher Steele and Fusion GPS

https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2019/05/08/who_were_the_mueller_reports_hired_guns.html

 

Joe Biden Claims U.S. ‘Obligation’ to Give Illegal Aliens Free Health Care

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/05/09/joe-biden-claims-u-s-obligation-to-give-illegal-aliens-free-healthcare/

end

 

Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog

(Greg Hunter)

Trump Makes News, Collusion Hoax Unravels, Economic Update

By Greg Hunter On May 10, 2019

President Trump gave an impromptu press conference today after some announcements on what his Administration plans to do to combat spiraling healthcare costs. He laid out the trade dispute with China, talked about North Korea missile testing and accused John Kerry of illegally meddling with Iran.

Also, in the press conference, President Trump was asked about his son’s subpoena to testify to the Senate on the debunked Russia tower meeting that was set up by Democrat opposition research group Fusion GPS. This group helped write the now totally phony “Russian Dossier” paid for by Hillary Clinton and the DNC. President Trump pointed out the so- called Russia collusion “hoax” that is unraveling more every day. It’s looking more and more like treason, which I have been saying for a couple of years. Trump and his supporters want to know how the “hoax” started and who’s going to take the blame? Trump did this all without the use of a teleprompter and zero notice. Even the press seemed to ask respectful questions that seemed honest for a change.

Everybody says the economy is doing great, but is it really? The yield curve is inverting, and a very big European bank is flashing a warning sign again.

Join Greg Hunter from USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

-END-

 

jUST A LITTLE NOTE WISHING ALL YOU MOTHERS OUT THERE A VERY HAPPY AND JOYOUS MOTHER’S DAY

 

AND TO ALL US GUYS WHO WERE FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO MAKE OUR PARTNERS MOTHERS  AND TO ENJOY ALL OF THOSE DIVIDENDS!!

 

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND

 

I WILL SEE YOU MONDAY NIGHT
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