MAY 13/CHINA/USA TRADE DEAL SEEMS DEAD AND THIS CAUSES GOLD TO RISE $15.25//SILVER IS STILL HELD BACK, FALLING TWO CENTS TO $14.77// QUEUE JUMPING CONTINUES FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER//NO GOLD AGAIN ENTERS THE COMEX ARENA//PROBLEMS CONTINUE FOR TURKEY AS THEY ENGAGE IN ANOTHER FORM OF QE TO FUND THEIR GOVERNMENT FINANCES//TERROR AT A PORT IN THE UAE AND IN THE GULF AND IRAN IS THE CHIEF SUSPECTS//A GOOD NUMBER OF SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1301.00  UP $15.25 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $14.77 DOWN 2 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold : 1300.30

 

 

 

silver:  $14.77

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:2/2

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,285.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/10/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 05/14/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 C JP MORGAN 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 2 2
MONTH TO DATE: 189

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 2 NOTICE(S) FOR 200 OZ (0.0062 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  189 NOTICES FOR 18900 OZ  (.5878 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MAY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

19 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 95,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3360 for 16,800,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :$7064  UP $118.00

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $7842 UP $881

 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1483 CONTRACTS FROM 200,473 UP TO 201,956 DESPITE FRIDAY’S TINY  2 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. ,LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED FOR SILVER BUT IT NOW IN FULL FORCE FOR GOLD. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

 0 FOR MAY, 0 FOR JUNE, 1164 FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1164 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1164 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1164 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 5.82 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 2 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

AND NOW 18.280 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MOAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MAY:

11,705 CONTRACTS (FOR 9 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 11,705 CONTRACTS) OR 58.525 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1300 CONTRACTS OR 6.50 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY:  58.525 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 8.35% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          799.62    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED  INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1483 DESPITE THE TINY  2 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /FRIDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1164 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS RESUMED THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES TODAY.

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 2647 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1164 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1483 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 2 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.79 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.010 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 144% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 19 NOTICE(S) FOR  95,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ AND NOW MAY:  18.280 MILLION OZ ..
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 14,626 CONTRACTS, TO 488,720 DESPITE THE SMALL RISE IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(AN INCREASE IN PRICE OF $2.15//FRIDAY’S TRADING).  

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 4626 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 4626 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS, JUNE 2020  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 488,720.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 19,252 CONTRACTS: 14,626 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 4626 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 19,252 CONTRACTS OR 1,952,000 OZ OR 59.88TONNES.  FRIDAY WE HAD A GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF ONLY $2.15….AND WITH THAT SMALL RISE, WE  HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN TONNAGE OF 59.88 TONNES!!!!!!.?????????????????????????????????????????? 

AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS HAVE NOW SWITCHED TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI: 

“YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF  SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 50,481 CONTRACTS OR 5,048,100 OR 157.02 TONNES (9 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5609 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 157.02 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 157.02/3550 x 100% TONNES =4,42% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     1972.57 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 14,626 DESPITE THE SMALL RISE IN PRICING ($2.15) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A  GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 4626 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 4626 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 19,252 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

4626 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 14,626 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 58.88 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A SMALL RISE IN PRICE OF $2.15 IN FRIDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. NO DOUBT THAT A STRONG  PERCENTAGE OF OI GAIN WAS DUE TO THE CONTINUING OF THE SPREADING OPERATION AS I HAVE OUTLINED ABOVE.

 

 

 

we had:  2 notice(s) filed upon for 200 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $15.25  TODAY

THE FOLLOWING MAKES A LOT OF SENSE:

A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.34 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS USED TO TAME GOLD’S RISE TODAY

 

 

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORy

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1483 CONTRACTS from 200,473 UPTO 201,956 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED THEIR LIQUIDATION IN SILVER BUT HAVE NOW MORPHED INTO GOLD..

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE:

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 0 FOR MAY, FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 1164 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1164 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1483 CONTRACTS TO THE 1164 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 2647 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 13.23 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL AND NOW 18.280 MILLION OZ FOR MAY

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE TINY 2 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 1164 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 88.26 POINTS OR 3.10%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 239.17 POINTS OR 0.84%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 57.21 POINTS OR 0.27%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .25%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8246 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 61.92 dollars per barrel for WTI and 70.47 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8246 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8550 TRADE TALKS STILL ON//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP THREATENS TO RAISE RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

i)NORTH KOREA

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 China/Chinese affairs

 

i)China/USA/Friday night

Trump pulls the trigger and raises the tariffs on all remaining imports from China valued at 300 million dollars.  Thus the total tariffs on all Chinese goods are just south of 600 billion dollars. And the talks are “constructive?”.

( zerohedge)

ii)China’s car sales plummeted to oblivion in April dropping a huge 16.6%.  This is the 11lth straight month for falls in sales of cars. China’s domestic market is in serious crisis

( zerohedge)

iii)Sunday;  The Chinese Media now accuses the USA of using a fierce and irrational offensive against China in their trade talks and that causes the trade talks to collapse

( zerohedge)

iv)Sunday:The markets were just not ready for this worst case scenario on the failed China/USA trade deal/talks

( zerohedge)

v)The avalanche is coming:  China’s own version of JPMorgan (Minsheng) is now seeking money from its own employees in order to avoid collapse

(zerohedge)

vi) Sunday:

With all due respect I believe that there are more than these 3 conditions.  I believe that to start the discussions again, then the USA must remove all trade war related tariffs.  The other two demands as to purchase of Chinese goods should not be that much of a problem.  The real issue is still the theft of trade secrets and the sovereign funding state owned companies with subsidies

( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK

Nigel Farage’s party, the Brexit party, surges again and now stands at 34% support. Elections will be held on May 23 and it will be quite interesting to see huge gains across Europe in Eurosceptic party gains in the EU parliament.

( HumanEvents.com)

ii) EU/USA/IRAN

Pompeo crashes Eu meeting pressuring officials in Brussels on Iran and Venezuela.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey

Turkey has two reserve funds:  foreign exchange reserves and a second legal reserves. For the past two months we have been referring to foreign exchange reserves which stood at 11 billion dollars but this value included gold valued at 22 billion.This means that their true foreign exchange reserves are -11 billion dollars (minus the gold).  The second fund is  a rainy day fund(legal reserve fund) and that stood at 40 billion lira or $6.6 billion dollars. Turkey just transferred those funds to government for spending purposes.  In other words, the central bank prints lira and sends it over to Erdogan for government spending.  Expect hyperinflation shortly in this country.

 

II)UAE/Saudi Arabia/the Gulf/Iran
No wonder gold rose on Monday:  the Saudis admit that two of their tankers were attacked in the Gulf following Sunday’s bizarre and mysterious explosions that rocked the UAE port of Fujairah
(courtesy zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

VENEZUELA

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)This is going to be good:  Judy Shelton is a staunch gold bug and a sound money advocate.  Other Fed board members would not be happy if she is selected

( Bloomberg News/GATA)

ii)A must read from Egon Von Greyerz today.  He pounds the table that the elites are creating fiat out of thin air with reckless abandon and in a short order of time we will have hyperinflation and that the only money around will be gold and silver.

(Egon Von Greyerz;Kingworldnews/GATA)

 

iii)Mainstream media is picking up this story to which I reported to you on last week.  China adds for the its 5th straight month official gold but a lot less than it produces.  China refuses to acknowledge its official gold that is held by the state. Zero hedge highlights the fact that the Indian holiday season is upon us and that means surging demand from this gold loving nation

( zerohedge)

iv)I wonder why the only gold that the uSA shows folks is “working inventory gold” i.e. gold used to produce gold bullion coins?…..( Bullion star.com/Ronan Manly)

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//

Markets begin to tumble as china does not listen to Trump and retaliates with their own tariffs.

( zerohedge)

 

 

ii)Market data

ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

USA/China

Trump warnings Beijing not to retaliate with more tariffs.  If they do, they will be hurt very badly

( zero hedge)

 

SWAMP STORIES

a)In this report we learn that IG Horowitz determined that 3 of the FISA extensions were illegally obtained according to Joe DiGenova.  We are now waiting for Horowitz’s report which should come later this month or in June. In this commentary note how the DNC tried to frame PapaD.

( Heine/Joe DiGenova)

b)A scathing attack on John Brennan

( Mike Whitney/UNZ Review)

c)Top lawyer for the FBI is nervous on what IG Horowitz will report.  James Baker should be nervous.  Nunes is demanding all papers related to the genesis of the whole thing; Mifsud.( zerohedge)

d)He has got to be kidding:  Adam Schiff believes the Ukrainian scandal involving Biden and his son Hunter should be off limits!!  Schiff is nothing but a big joke( zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 14,626 CONTRACTS.TO A LEVEL OF 488,720 DESPITE THE SMALL GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($2.15) IN FRIDAY’S // COMEX TRADING) 

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4626 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

0 FOR JUNE ’19: 4626 CONTRACTS , DEC; 0 CONTRACTS: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  4626 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 19,252 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 4626 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 14,626 COMEX CONTRACTS.

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 1,9252 contracts OR 2,1925,200 OZ OR 59.88 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of MAY and here the open interest stands at 119 contracts, having LOST 9 contracts. We had 11 notices served yesterday so we gained 2 contracts or an additional 200  oz will stand as they guys refused to morph into a London based forward as well as negating a fiat bonus

The next contract month after May is June and here the open interest FELL by 795 contracts DOWN to 282,840.  July GAINED 14 contracts to stand at 86.  After July the next active month is August and here the OI rose by 15,458 contracts up to 129,776 contracts.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 2 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  200  OZ. (0.0062 TONNES)

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1483 CONTRACTS FROM 200,473 UP TO 201,956(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S GOOD OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A TINY 2 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//FRIDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.  HERE WE HAVE 323 OPEN INTEREST STAND SO FAR FOR A LOSS OF ONLY 5 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 13 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO IN ESSENCE WE GAINED ANOTHER  8 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 40,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. SILVER MUST BE SCARCE AT THE COMEX. QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE. WE HAVE NOW SURPASSED THE INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING WHICH OCCURED ON APRIL 30.2019

 

 

 

THE NEXT MONTH AFTER MAY IS THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF  JUNE.  HERE THIS MONTH GAINED 15 CONTRACTS UP TO 739. AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY, (THE SECOND LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR FOR SILVER) AND HERE THIS MONTH GAINED 1137 CONTRACTS UP TO 153,920 CONTRACTS. THE NEXT ACTIVE MONTH AFTER JULY FOR SILVER IS SEPTEMBER AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 673 UP TO 18,545 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 19 notice(s) filed for 95,000 OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  379,417  CONTRACTS 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  277,880  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  MAY/GOLD

MAY 13 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
2 notice(s)
 200 OZ
(0.0062 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
117 contracts
(11700 oz)
0.3639 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
189 notices
18900 OZ
.5878 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else:  zero oz

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside/ again zero amount arrived  today

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

(maybe investors are taking our advice by not storing their gold at the comex.)

this will hurt our bankers as they need to replace leased gold as all gold stored at the gold comex is unallocated.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE RATS ARE FLEEING A SINKING SHIP!

Gold withdrawals;

i)  We had 0 withdrawals:

 

.

total gold withdrawals; niloz

 

 

i) we had 1 adjustment today
out of Delaware:  897.503 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Delaware
I

FOR THE MAY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 2 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (189) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (128 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (2 x 100 oz per contract) equals 30,600 OZ OR 0.9517 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of MAY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (189 x 100 oz)  + (119)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2 x 100 oz )which equals 30,600 oz standing OR 0.9517 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of MAY.

We gained 2 contracts or an additional 200 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into a London based forwards. Queue jumping continues where we left off last month in gold and for that matter in silver.  We now have two precious metals undergoing queue jumping as the bankers scramble to obtain physical metal.

 

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 6.632 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 0.9517 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  213,219.982 oz or  6.632tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,702,775.662 oz 239.58 tonnes

 

 

FOR COMPARISON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR APRIL 2018 AND FINAL STANDING APRIL 30 2018

 

 

AT FIRST DAY NOTICE MAY 1 2018: WE HAD 1.284 TONNES OF GOLD STAND.  BY MONTH’S END:  2.27 TONNES AS WE HAD ONE QUEUE JUMPING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

IN THE LAST 31 MONTHS 116 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
MAY 13 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
596,053.162 oz
DELAWARE
CNT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
73,149.450 oz
cnt
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
NIL oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
19
CONTRACT(S)
(95,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
304 contracts
1,520,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3360 contracts

16,800,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

I) Into CNT: 73,149.450 oz

total dealer deposits: 73,149.450  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 149.469 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.80% of all official comex silver. (149 million/307 million)

 

into  everybody else:  nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  1,089,730.741  oz

 

we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of Delaware:  2022.700 oz

ii) Out of CNT; 594,030.462 oz

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals:  596,053.162 oz

 

we had 0 adjustment :

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  92.139 million

total dealer + customer silver:  306.972 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MAY 2019. contract month is represented by 19 contract(s) FOR  95,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3360 x 5,000 oz = 16,800,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (323) and the number of notices served upon today (19 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY/2019 contract month: 3360(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY( 323) -number of notices served upon today (19)x 5000 oz equals 18,320,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month.

We GAINED 8 contracts or an additional 40,000 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus for their efforts.

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON VS LAST YEAR:

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE APRIL 30/2018 (FOR THE MAY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH) WE HAD 24.11 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY.  BY MONTH END WE HAD HUGE QUEUE JUMPING AND THUS 36.285 MILLION OZ EVENTUALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  65,611 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 50,585 CONTRACTS..

 

..

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 50,585 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 252 million  OZ 36.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -4.38% (MAY 13/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -2.03% to NAV (MAY 13/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.38%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.92 TRADING 12.36/DISCOUNT 4.32

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MAY 13/ WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $15.40 TODAY: STRANGE! A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.41 TONNES OF GOLD (TO TAME GOLD’S RISE TODAY)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 10 WITH GOLD UP $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 9//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 7/ WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $9.35 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.52

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD UP $4.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES//

APRIL 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.2//ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 746.69 TONNES TONNES

APRIL 25//WITH GOLD UP $.05 TODAY  (BASICALLY FLAT) NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

 

APRIL 24 WITH GOLD UP  $6.00 TODAY// TWO TRANSACTIONS: 1)A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD AND THEN II) ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

APRIL 23./WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES//

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD UP $1.75//A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT752.27 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES AT THE GLD WHICH WAS USED IN YESTERDAY’S RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 752.27 TONNES

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.03

APRIL 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $2.10 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757..85 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.45 AGAIN TODAY, THE CROOKS AGAIN RAIDED THE COOKE JAR BY 2.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.49 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40: THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 761.67 TONNES.

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD UP$1.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF PHYSICAL GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.55 TONNES

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.29 TONNES

APRIL 3:WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS: ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL: 3.81 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  764.29 TONNES

APRIL 2//WOW! WE LOST A WHOPPING 16.16 TONNES OF GOLD WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $1.80//INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.10

 

 

 

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MAY 13/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 739.64 tonnes

*IN LAST 594 TRADING DAYS: 200.74NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 494 TRADING DAYS: A NET 34.90 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN LOST INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MAY 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ…

MAY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///

MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///

MAY 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 891,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

MAY 3//WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 843,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/TOTAL INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.691 MILLION OZ//

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 13 CENTS, MIRACUOUSLY THE AUTHORITIES ADD 2.869 MILLION OZ OF SILVER BACK INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.848 MILLION OZ//

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ////

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 29/ WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 26//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 23./WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A SHOCKING 2.8122 MILLION PAPER OZ WERE ADDED INTO SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15: WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 12 WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 750,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ//

April 10/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:  THE CROOKS CANNOT RAID ANY SILVER BECAUSE THERE IS NONE: INVENTORY RETS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 4/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP TWO CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/ WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ FROM THE SLV TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167

 

 

 

MAY 13/2019:

 

Inventory 316.582 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.12/ and libor 6 month duration 2.60

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .48

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.42%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.69

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.27

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

GO

Seven Banks Rigging The Multi-Trillion Dollar Foreign Exchange Market

(Reuters) – Barclays, Citigroup, HSBC, JPMorgan and three other banks are set to be fined by EU antitrust regulators in coming weeks for rigging the multi-trillion dollar foreign exchange market, two people familiar with the matter said.

The other three lenders are Royal Bank of Scotland, UBS and a small Japanese bank, the people said. The banks will see a 10 percent cut in their fines for admitting wrongdoing.

In contrast, Credit Suisse, which has previously said it did not find any evidence of misconduct, is fighting the EU antitrust charge. It is not clear if the European Commission will be able to finalize the case in time to levy a fine against the Swiss bank in coming weeks.

WATCH INTERVIEW HERE

The EU antitrust enforcer, which has been investigating the case over the last six years and could hand out fines up to 10 percent of a company’s global turnover for breaching EU rules, declined to comment.

Barclays, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Royal Bank of Scotland and HSBC declined to comment.

It is possible the EU could space out its rulings against the banks over several weeks rather than lump them together in one day, the sources said.

News and Commentary

Bitcoin Climbs Above $7,000 as Cryptocurrency Rally Extends

Stocks Fall, Dollar Climbs on Trade Talks Deadlock

Hackers Steal Over $40 Million Worth of Bitcoin From One of the World’s Largest Cryptocurrency Exchanges

India Emerge As Key Cuyer of Uzbek Gold Between Jan-March

Tame U.S. Inflation Seen Keeping Fed on the Sidelines

As Cryptos Soar, ECB’s Draghi Warns: Not Currencies, They’re Very Risky Assets “Cashless” Sweden Suddenly Warns Citizens: Hoard Banknotes & Coins In Case Of Cyber-Attack Or WarThis is Usually a Good Month to Buy Gold

The Disturbing Reasons Behind the ‘Meteoric Rise’ in Americans’ DebtShort Sellers Run Rampant in the Precious Metal Stocks

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 
end

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

This is going to be good:  Judy Shelton is a staunch gold bug and a sound money advocate.  Other Fed board members would not be happy if she is selected

(courtesy Bloomberg News/GATA)



iii) Other Physical stories
Mainstream media is picking up this story to which I reported to you on last week.  China adds for the its 5th straight month official gold but a lot less than it produces.  China refuses to acknowledge its official gold that is held by the state. Zero hedge highlights the fact that the Indian holiday season is upon us and that means surging demand from this gold loving nation
(courtesy zerohedge)

China Adds Gold For 5th Month, Demand Surges During Important Indian Holiday

China’s central bank added gold to its reserves for the fifth month in a row in April, the latest emerging market central bank to stock up on the yellow metal.

As The FT reports, The People’s Bank of China said its gold reserves rose to 61.1m ounces last month, an increase of 480,000 ounces from March, and bringing its total gold holdings to about $78.3bn.

Since it started buying gold in December after a 25-month pause, China has built up its gold holdings by almost 60 tonnes, according to analysts at Commerzbank.

Emerging market central banks have become some of the largest buyers in the gold market as they look to diversify their reserves away from the dollar.

Last year central banks, led by Russia, bought more gold last year than at any time since America decided to move off the gold standard in 1971, with around $27bn worth of purchases.

The desire to buy the precious metal was driven by “economic uncertainty caused by trade tensions, sluggish growth and a low/negative interest rate environment” among other reasons, the WSG noted.

And it’s not just China, Russia, and Central Banks, SchiffGold.com reports that demand is up sharply among Indian citizens…

Jewelers and dealers in India reported brisk gold sales on Akshaya Tritiya, despite the holiday falling on a workday and extreme heat in some regions of the country.

Akshay Tritiya ranks as one of the four most important days for Hindus. The word Akshay roughly translates to “the never diminishing.”The day is believed to bring good luck and success. It is also considered one of the most auspicious occasions to buy precious metals, including gold.

According to the Economic Times of Indiagold sales were up by as much as 25% on Akshay Tritiya, which fell on May 7 this year.

Saurabh Gadgil serves national vice-president of the India Bullion & Jewellers Association. He told the Economic Times he was very positive about Akshay Tritiya sales this year.

Footfalls are good as there is a positive sentiment. Despite being a working day and the sweltering heat, there has been steady stream of people coming in to pick up pre-booked jewelry and also some token items from the morning. But the momentum gathered more steam after office hours and we expect more pick in the volume through the rest of the night.”

Dealers in both northern and southern regions of India reported surging demand.

Kalyan Jewellers chairman TS Kalyanaraman said that wedding sales have been strong this year in general due to stable prices and positive sentiments.

Bullion dealers also reported strong Akshay Tritiya sales. Khanna Gems’ Pankaj Khanna said sales volume rose 20% in offline bullion demand and the company reported over 1,200 transactions for silver and gold coins online.

Indians traditionally buy and hold gold. The yellow metal is interwoven into the country’s marriage ceremonies and cultural rites. Indians also value gold as a store of wealth, especially in poor rural regions. While Americans generally think of gold as a luxury item, many Indians view it as a necessity. In the Asian nation, buying gold is not just for the rich. In fact, a recent survey shows that possessing the yellow metal is a universal phenomenon across all income classes in India.

India ranks second in the world in gold demand behind China.

While owning precious metals is part of India’s culture, the fundamental reasons Indians buy gold and silver are no different than those that motivate people over the world to invest in precious metals – they historically preserve wealth, they provide a safe haven, and most significantly, they are real money.

-END-

I wonder why the only gold that the uSA shows folks is “working inventory gold” i.e. gold used to produce gold bullion coins?…..

(courtesy Bullion star.com/Ronan Manly)

The Only Gold The US Will Show: The “Working Vault” At West Point

Submitted by Ronan Manly, BullionStar.com

Every so often, US media coverage provides glimpses into the US Treasury’s gold reserves stored with the US Mint. While this coverage never documents any of the claimed “deep storage” gold of the US Treasury, it contains just enough suggestion for the populace to connect the words ‘gold storage’ and ‘US Government’, and then return to their daily routines, assuming that the US has the largest strategic gold reserves in the world.

Notably, these media features, which span mainstream financial media and coin / numismatic news sites alike, are also only ever limited to one single location where the US Mint stores gold, a ‘working vault’ at the US Mint’s facility in West Point, New York. Images of this vault will be familiar to some readers, images which contain various pallets of 400 oz gold bars in front of a US flag and the walls of the storage room strewn with many years of scribbled visitor signatures .

Such a media feature recently appeared on the WNYW network (Fox 5 New York) in April, when the Fox5NY crew took the trip about 2 hours north of Manhattan to the US Mint’s bullion depository at West Point.

Along with its bullion depository in Fort Knox, Kentucky, and its minting facility in Denver, Colorado, the West Point Mint, located adjacent to West Point military Academy, is one of the three claimed Mint storage locations for the US Treasury’s “deep storage” gold reserves, and according to the US Treasury, there are 11 storage compartments at West Point storing 54 million troy ounces, or 1682 tonnes, of United States Government owned gold reserves. Which would be just over 20% of the 8133 tonnes of gold that the US Treasury claims to hold.

The trouble is, despite numerous visits to the West Point bullion depository in recent years by numerous camera crews, photographers, reporters and journalists, there has never been any coverage of any of the 11 long-term gold storage compartments at West Point, nor any photos or videos of any of the 54 million ounces of gold that is claimed to be stored there. Merely repeated visits to this one ‘working vault’ in which a constantly changing working inventory of gold and silver bars used in the Mint’s bullion coin minting are temporarily stored.

While the Fox5NY report is pitched as a visit to the “treasure belonging to the US Treasury”, where “nearly a quarter of the U.S. government’s gold sits beneath a windowless building on the campus at West Point“, it was also to this working vault that the Fox5NY crew and its reporter Joe Toohey were led to by US Mint staff for the story published April 16.

We’ve got approximately 54 million ounces here that we

store, which is about 22% of the nation’s gold,” says Ellen McCollum, Superintendent of the West Point Mint, before the footage cuts to a graphic of the US Treasury’s claimed inventory of deep storage gold across Fort Knox, West Point and Denver, followed by shots of gold bars and silver bars in the West Point production inventory working vault.

Fox5NY graphic still, preceding footage of gold bars in the West Point ‘working vault’  

There is also no explanation in the Fox5NY report that they are in a working vault, and that the gold stored in that room is working stock production input for minting bullion coins, and nothing to do with the 54 million ounces of the US Treasury’s claimed ‘deep storage’ gold.

According to Toohey’s account, which is in the form of both a video and written report:

“FOX5NY was granted rare access – supervised of course – to one of their highly secure vaults. Officials had to cut a numbered seal to open it.”

Straight off the bat, this reference to cutting a numbered seal seems strange, and whatever this seal was, it is not the same as the official joint seals that the US Treasury claims to put on its long-term storage compartments (see example here), and that are put there by a joint audit committee of Treasury and Mint officials who have audited United Stated Government owned gold. By definition, with gold and silver regularly moving in an out of this working vault storage area, the contents of this vault are not static and could not be subject to official joint seals of audit committee.

 

The Shifting Inventory in the Working Vault

That the contents of this working vault are not static can be observed in a number of ways. When Toohey and the Fox5NY crew visited the vault in April 2019, there were “2,600 bars of gold bullion” in the vault, with each bar “worth about $500,000”, and ”about $1.3 billion worth of gold”.

When CoinNews.net’s Darrin Lee Unser visited the same vault in July 2014, which he described as “the vault of working bullion”, there were “3,592 gold bars on the day of our visit, July 22, each worth about $524,100 for a total value of almost $1.9 billion”. These gold bars, said Unser, were “only passing through, purchased on the open market to make gold coins.

When CoinNews.net’s Mike Unser visited the same working vault a year earlier on June 04, 2013 (for the West Point Mint’s 75th anniversary media tour), there were “nearly 4,300 gold bars worth more than $2.3 billion”, at a time when each bar “was worth almost $560,000”.

Photographer Scott Eells for Bloomberg also visited this same working vault in early June 2013 (his photo captions say 5th June), and captured an interesting shot of a sign showing the exact gold contents of the vault on that day, which claimed that there were 4,281 gold bars, each weighting about 400 ozs and each valued at $558,600, for a total of 1,710,213.113 troy ozs. See image here.

Some of the 4,281 gold bars in the West Point ‘working vault’ in early June 2013. Source: CoinNews image.

 

So over these three snapshot visits, the gold inventory in this working vault fluctuated (and happened to shrink) from 4281 gold bars in June 2013, to 3592 gold bars in July 2014, to 2600 gold bars in April 2019, in itself proof that the gold stored in this working vault is not static, and that the vault is not in any way long-term sealed under an official joint audit seal.

The same is also true of the silver in the West Point working vault. On the day of Darrin Lee Unser’s visit in July 2014, there were 2,800 bars of 99.9% fine silver, each weighing 1000 ozs stored at the back of the vault (in a caged off area). When Mike Unser visited the vault in June 2013, he states that there were about 1,300,000 ozs of silver bars (each weighing 1000 ozs), A Scott Eells photo at that time clarifies this exactly, showing that there were about 1350 silver bars in the silver caged area, each weighing 1000 oz. So again, over a one year period, the silver bar inventory in this working vault fluctuated from about 1350 silver bars to 2800 silver bars, proof that the vault was in use, and not sealed under any type of long term audit seal.

 

Photos and Videos Aplenty

With plenty of media visits to West Point’s working vault, it’s not surprisingly that it is well documented with many photos and a few videos. These photos and videos also show the shifting contents of the vault over time, with varying numbers of pallets of 400 oz gold bars, and rows of pallets.

The Scott Eells images for Bloomberg from June 2013 can be seen on the Getty website here. While numerous, they are mostly close ups of 400 oz gold bars.

The US Mint YouTube page hosts a short video (1:13 minutes) of the working vault here, showing the gold and silver bars. The Getty website also has a short video of this vault, filmed 6th June 2013 by Bloomberg. The video, which is 1:12 minutes and mostly pans over the gold bar pallets, can be played on a page at this link.

A portion of the 3,592 gold bars in the West Point ‘working vault’ on 22 July 2014. Source: CoinNews image 

Another video of the working vault is also in the public domain, having been taken by ‘Coin World’ editor, Paul Gilkes. Gilkes visited the vault in early June 2013 at the same time as CoinNews but his video shows a completely different arrangement of the gold bar pallets to those of the June 2013 and July 014 visits, so is presumably was made on another occasion altogether. This video can be played at a page at this link. Gilkes video is notable in that it pans around to both sides of the vault and reveals that there are not one, but two, US flags adorning the vault walls, one on each side.

Perhaps the best photos of the West Point working vault are from the two CoinNews.net articles published in 2013, and 2014, which generously contain a large number of photos from inside the working vault. The 2014 CoinNews article also picks up on the point that the gold is stored on both side of the vault – with a photo captioned “More gold bars are layered at another side of the vault”.

Without laboring the point, the various sets of photos and videos make it clear that on all the different visits to the working vault, there are different numbers of pallets of gold, the pallets are arranged in different positions, there are cordon ropes in some photos and not others, and there are different numbers of pallets of silver etc etc.

Yet another piece of proof that this ‘working vault’ sees a lot of visitors is the sheer number of graffiti like signatures spread across the walls on both sides of the vault. These signatures span many years of the recent past. For example, just looking at one photo (see below) shows dates of 1998, 2003, 2005 2009, 2010, and 2011, and that’s just one small part of one wall. All of the walls are covered in these signatures and dates, hundreds of them.

The many names and dates on the working vault wall attest to its many visitors over recent years. Source: CoinNews image.

Conclusion

Apart from Mint facility held ‘deep storage’ gold and Federal Reserve stored gold, the US Treasury’s gold report, full name “Status Report of U.S. Government Gold Reserve (Gold Report)“, shows a line item titled “Mint-Held Treasury Gold – Working Stock” ascribed to “All locations – Coins, blanks, miscellaneous” and which shows a never changing  2,783,218.656 troy ounces, or 85.6 tonnes of gold.

 

This line item and this amount of 2.783 million ounces have literally been on the US Treasury gold report for many years, and presumably represent a liability that the Mint began to owe to the Treasury at some point in time. Given that the working stock constantly changes but this Treasury line item never changes, its debatable whether the Mint’s working stock of gold falls under this line item.

Whatever the case, there are two distinct sets of bullion at West Point, one is  a relatively small amount of working stock for the production of bullion coins, the other the very large claimed amount of long term storage gold. One is held in a working vault, the other is claimed to be held across 11 deep storage compartments. It just so happens that the US Mint is tasked with two activities that are located in the same place. One is a production activity of the Mint – minting coins from gold and silver bars, the other is a storage activity, long-term storage of gold bars.

The constant references by the US Mint to 54 million ounces of gold held in storage for the US Treasury while showing the visiting media gold bars used in the bullion coin minting process – that are stored in a completely different room and are used to mint gold bullion coins – is a disingenuous and misleading exercise by the West Point Mint. On its periodic outings to the West Point facility, the visiting media could at least question why they are only ever shown a working vault housing gold bar inputs into the Mint’s bullion coin programs, and not even the corridors and 11 compartment doors where the 54 million ounces of deep storage gold is claimed to be held.

There are already many doubts as to how much gold is housed at the Fort Knox gold bullion depository, and the same goes for the Mint’s Denver facility which may not store any gold at all. By leading the media on a merry tour of the Mint’s working vault at West Point while showing nothing of the facility’s supposed 11 deep storage gold compartments, the US Mint and Treasury are doing themselves no favors in establishing their claim to be the greatest gold holder in the world.

end

 

Gold trading/early morning

Gold Surges Back Above $1300 On Huge Volume As Trade Tensions Escalate

With China’s retaliatory threats coming just minutes after Trump warned them not to, and including a closet threat to dump USTs, precious metals are aggressively bid this morning with Gold surging above its 50DMA and breaking $1300 once again.

Gold spiked on extremely heavy volume…

 

Breaking above $1300 and its 50DMA once again…

 

Additionally, gold is surging in value against the yuan…

 

end

Platinum sees a jump in demand from investors.  However it will need a much bigger demand from cars to finally create a defict.

(courtesy Lawrie Williams)

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Platinum supply may move into deficit this year

Platinum has probably been vying with silver as the worst performing precious metal over the past few years, but the latest pgm specialist Johnson Matthey analysis paints a more positive picture for the metal’s future. It has been hugely overshadowed on the pricing front by its much more volatile sister metal, palladium, over which it has traditionally held a strong price advantage. However the platinum price premium over palladium has reversed in the past couple of years which have seen the latter metal’s price surge dramatically on what, on the face of things, appear to be much stronger supply/demand fundamentals.

In short, palladium became the go-to catalytic metal of choice for gasoline (petrol) fuelled engines, due to its historic lower price and in the light vehicle market gasoline is the dominant fuel for internal combustion engine vehicles. Platinum had retained its dominance in the diesel sector, but the VW scandal, and the targeting of diesel as the more dangerous environmental polluter has reduced the mass market end in this sector and platinum had appeared to be heading for several years of production surpluses, with the price suffering accordingly. Consequently the palladium price surged ahead of that of platinum at end-September 2017 and hasn’t looked back since then with analysts predicting big platinum production surpluses and palladium deficits.

However the latest analysis from Johnson Matthey in its just released PGM Market Report, suggests platinum supply could also move into deficit in the current year. The report notes that a surge in investment buying and higher automotive consumption (primarily from an ever-growing diesel truck market) will underpin a 9% demand gain for platinum in 2019, offsetting weakness in the Chinese platinum jewellery market, where platinum faces increased competition from karat gold jewellery.

Johnson Matthey reckons overall automotive demand for platinum will rise by 3% this year, primarily due to greater platinum use on trucks. In China, the company states, “platinum consumption on heavy duty vehicles will increase sharply, with strict China 6 emissions legislation due to be implemented in some provinces and cities starting in July 2019. The new regulations will apply nationwide from July 2020, while India will also introduce strict emissions regulations for trucks next year.”

South Africa is the world’s dominant platinum producer and output there has remained pretty flat despite ongoing problems with prospective strikes and inter-union rivalries. Johnson Matthey does see production there rising marginally this year, provided that producers can clear processing backlogs but notes that there is also some downside risk due to the potential for disruption from electricity shortages and/or strikes.

On factors which have been influencing the global supply/demand situation, Alison Cowley, Principal Analyst at Johnson Matthey, comments: “Between mid 2018 and early 2019, the platinum price traded close to ten year lows while palladium set a series of all-time records. Some investors now think that platinum is under-priced, given the improving outlook for automotive demand (not so much in numbers of units but in terms of regulatory changes requiring additional loading- Ed) and uncertainties over supply. This led to a dramatic turnaround in sentiment during the first quarter of 2019, when investors bought nearly 700,000 ounces of platinum Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). This seems to be net new investment, rather than investors switching out of palladium into platinum.”

Meanwhile Johnson Matthey still also expect the palladium market deficit to widen as it sees autocatalyst demand climbing 9% – again largely due to regulatory requirements. However, car sales actually seem to be falling sharply worldwide and perhaps the analysts have not been taking this sufficiently into account. The metal price had been flying high reaching a record $1,600 an ounce only a few weeks ago, but last week the price plunged falling below that of gold on Thursday for the first time since January, although it bounced back sharply on Friday, restoring its premium over gold, but has come back a little in price this morning. Historically the palladium price has trailed that of gold, and platinum quite substantially, but all that has changed in the past couple of years as global supply has been unable to keep up with demand, although any deficit has been met by the liquidation of above-ground stocks. But the ability for this situation to continue is becoming increasingly limited. Thus Johnson Matthey analysts see the palladium supply deficit widening ‘significantly’ this year, but again may be underestimating the fall in sales number for cars worldwide and the ever increasing market share of electric driven vehicles which require less palladium (hybrids) or none at all (true electric-powered vehicles).

Rupen Raithatha, Market Research Director at Johnson Matthey, comments: “ETF investors redeemed over 2.2 million oz of palladium holdings during the last four years. This helped to support market liquidity during a period of exceptional growth in automotive demand. However, persistent market deficits have had a real impact on the price, which reached a record high of over $1,600/oz in March 2019. Despite these high prices, ETF selling dried up in the first quarter of 2019, but we think there is still some potential for profit-taking this year.”

Johnson Matthey thus sees palladium use in autocatalysts rising in 2019. China, currently the world’s largest auto market, is introducing its new more stringent emissions legislation which will be enforced nationally in 2020, but some provinces and cities will introduce the new standards in July this year, under the ‘Blue Sky Protection Plan’. This will result in a step change in palladium loadings on Chinese cars. More stringent emissions controls are also being introduced in Europe and the Americas, which will also see palladium loadings rise in exhaust catalysts, although, as we have noted above, this is all being mitigated somewhat by a fall in automobile sales around the world.

On European autocatalyst demand, Margery Ryan, Principal Automotive Analyst at Johnson Matthey, added: “Euro 6d legislation is having a significant impact on the palladium market. Vehicles are being tested under a wider range of driving conditions, making emissions control more challenging. Exhaust after-treatment systems are becoming more complex and automakers are adding more palladium to meet the new requirements.”

So altogether a positive outlook for both platinum and palladium from Johnson Matthey, which as probably the world leader in autocatalyst supply and consequent processing of PGMs to meet this demand, so to an extent this latest analytical report may represent wishful thinking on its own position. However its analytical capabilities are enormous so the views presented should be taken seriously by the markets.

The Johnson Matthey analytical conclusions do not entirely agree with those of the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) but the supply/demand situation for both metals remains fluid. The latest WPIC quarterly reports makes many of the same comments on platinum as the Johnson Matthey one regarding increased investment demand and, indirectly, suggests that European diesel powered vehicle sales may pick up due to manufacturer success in cutting down diesel engine pollutants to legislative acceptable levels. However, despite seeing an overall increase in platinum demand in 2019 at double the rate of possible increased supply, it still sees the platinum supply/demand balance as being in surplus at the year end, although reducing. It also notes, however, a similar assessment of potential supply interruptions from South Africa.

So, all in all the latest assessments of the platinum and palladium markets suggest an improvement in platinum’s position and perhaps little change in palladium’s. But, as noted above, markets are largely driven by perception and sentiment and whether improved fundamentals for platinum in particular will lead to a price recovery remains obscure. We think probably they will, at least to some extent, while there may be little change in the palladium price premium over its sister metal which again raises the threat of substitution in autocatalyst systems. We assume manufacturers are working on this and the likelihood of it happening become more and more likely if the current price differential between the two metals persists.

13 May 2019

-END-

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

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end

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Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.8246/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8550   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 88.26 POINTS OR 3.10%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 239.17 POINTS OR 0.84%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 57.21 POINTS OR 0.27%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN /

 

 

 

USA dollar index FALLS TO 97.36/Euro RISES TO 1.1232

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.05/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.73/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 62.02 and Brent: 70.92

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO 04%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.67% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.96%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.71: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.50

3k Gold at $1285.50 silver at: 14.76   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 2/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.22

3m oil into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and 70 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.73 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0134 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1383 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.04%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.45% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.87%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.1302..they are toast

S&P Futures, Yuan Tumble; Dollar Surges As US-China Turns Ugly

S&P futures and global equities fell on Monday after their worst week of 2019, as hopes of an imminent U.S.-China trade deal were crushed with sentiment souring significantly over the weekend, as neither side showed a willingness to budge, raising fears of a fresh round of tit-for-tat tariffs. The dollar surged, the yuan tumbled and Treasuries rallied as traders walked in to the following sea of red.

With the barbs now coming fast and furious as Trump tweets out a new provocation to Beijing literally every several minutes, most recently warning that “China should not retaliate-will only get worse!” while China said that it will “never surrender” to external pressure, though stopped short of announcing how Beijing will retaliate to the latest round of US tariffs, the US and China appeared at a deadlock over trade negotiations as Washington demanded promises of concrete changes to Chinese law and Beijing said it would not swallow any “bitter fruit” that harmed its interests.

“Looks like we are just slowly ebbing away. More tweets from Trump over the weekend stoking the fires for a trade war,” said John Woolfitt at London-based Atlantic Markets.

As a result, contracts on the S&P 500 slid 1.3%, erasing much of Friday’s miraculous rebound, and pointing to a big drop at the U.S. open.

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index quickly slumped negative as almost every industry sector retreated. With no date scheduled for a resumption in bilateral Sino-U.S. talks, shares dropped in all principal Asian markets except Hong Kong, which was closed for a holiday.

Earlier Asian stocks also dropped sharply as Chinese shares tumbled, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite and the blue-chip CSI 300 shedding 1.2% and 1.8%, respectively, while Hong Kong’s financial markets were closed for a holiday. Japan’s Nikkei average sank as much as 1.0% to hit its lowest level since March 28, before closing down 0.7%.

The trade war hit emerging market stocks, which were down 0.7 percent, hovering near January lows. JPMorgan said it had reduced its emerging markets risk for the second time in as many months on Monday following the set-back in U.S-China trade talks.

“How far this escalates is what the market is really worried about as we haven’t really got full details of what the U.S. will do and how China will retaliate. The important thing is what’s the impact on growth, and that’s what the market is really fearing,” said Justin Oneukwusi, portfolio manager at Legal & General Investment Management.

The risk of a full-blown trade war has materially increased, even though both sides seem to still want a trade deal and talks are expected to continue,” UBS economist Tao Wang said.

Making matters worse, on Monday Washington is expected to announce it is raising tariffs on all remaining imports from China, worth approximately $300 billion. “Our base case is for limited progress and Chinese retaliation,” said Michael Hanson, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities.

In FX, the big outlier was the offshore Chinese yuan, which fell to its lowest levels in more than four months at 6.90 to the dollar.

While most other major currencies were relatively calm with the euro steady at $1.1230, the yen led gains across the Group-of-10, climbing along with Treasuries, as haven bids mounted on trade war concerns. A gauge of dollar strength rallied for the first time in three days while the pound was little changed as the Brexit deadlock continued with the U.K. Prime Minister planning to re-open discussions with the European Union

In digital currencies, Bitcoin continued to move higher, holding onto gains over weekend. Bitcoin jumped more than 10% on Saturday and is up more than 90% YTD, rising to a nine-month high of $7,585.00 on Sunday.

In rates, 10-year Treasury yields fell to the lowest level since late March; The U.S. Treasury bond yield curve between three-month and 10-year rates inverted on Monday for the second time in a week, with the 10-year yield now standing 0.0025% above the shorter-maturity bill. Viewed as a classic warning signal of a looming U.S. recession, the curve inverted last Thursday for the first time since March,.

In commodities, oil futures rose on increasing concerns about supply disruptions in the crucial producing region of the Middle East where Saudi Arabia said two of its tankers were “sabotaged.” Brent crude futures rose 0.5% to $71.00 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up marginally at $61.73 per barrel.  Trade-sensitive commodities including soybeans and cotton fell. Most base metals retreated as traders reassessed the demand outlook given the threats to global economic growth. Other raw materials were also caught in the crossfire of the trade impasse, with China’s cotton futures plunging by the daily limit.

There are no economic events due today, with Fed Vice Chair Clarida and Dallas Fed President Kaplan set to speak; STERIS, StoneCo, Take-Two, and Tencent Music are among companies reporting earnings.

Latest US-China Trade War updates:

  • President Trump suggested that he thinks China felt they were being beaten so badly on negotiations that they may as well wait around for next election, but warned that a deal will become far worse for them if it is negotiated during his second term and that it would be wise for China to act now but he loves collecting big tariffs.
  • White House economic adviser Kudlow said China has invited US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Trade representative Lighthizer to China to continue trade talks, while he also suggested that it is US importers are paying for the tariffs instead of China and that both sides will lose in the trade war.
  • US and China trade negotiators were said to be at odds on 3 major issues including disagreement on removal of all remaining tariffs, differences in wording of the agreement and with China said to view US import targets as unrealistic. In related news, Chinese press accused the US of obstructing progress on bilateral trade talks.
  • China’s Mofcom Spokesman Geng states that there is currently no information on a US President Trump and Chinese President Xi meeting at the upcoming G20 summit.
  • China Global Times Editor believes that China has not released countermeasures immediately as China may be drafting a plan that will have precise effects, making sure it hits the US while minimizing damage to itself.
  • China Auto Industry Association says US auto tariffs will have a large impact on Chinese auto parts exports.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 1.3% to 2,851.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 374.98
  • MXAP down 0.7% to 155.94
  • MXAPJ down 0.8% to 514.38
  • Nikkei down 0.7% to 21,191.28
  • Topix down 0.5% to 1,541.14
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 28,550.24
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.2% to 2,903.71
  • Sensex down 0.02% to 37,456.47
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 6,297.59
  • Kospi down 1.4% to 2,079.01
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to -0.054%
  • Euro down 0.02% to $1.1231
  • Italian 10Y yield unchanged at 2.309%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 0.975%
  • Brent futures up 1.4% to $71.57/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,283.32
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.31

Top Overnight News

  • The emerging stalemate in U.S.-China trade negotiations grew out of an earlier deadlock over how and when to remove existing American tariffs that provoked Beijing to threaten to walk away from talks, highlighting what people briefed on the discussions say are widening fundamental differences between the two sides
  • A measure of Japan’s current economic health indicates there is a good chance the economy is in recession, a development that could heighten debate over whether Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will postpone a planned sales tax hike for a third time
  • U.S. equity futures slid, extending the stock market’s biggest weekly decline of the year, as a weekend of back-and-forth trade squabbling kept investors glued to news screens as earnings season wound down
  • Theresa May is promising to reopen Brexit talks with the European Union to try to breathe life back into negotiations with the opposition Labour Party and take the U.K. out of the bloc by the summe
  • Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte suspects Matteo Salvini may be preparing to bring down the populist coalition, Corriere della Sera reported Sunday. Silvio Berlusconi, a potential partner for Salvini if he wants to form a more conventional center-right government, told La Stampa that his party is ready for another election
  • The White House is considering conservative economist Judy Shelton to fill one of the two vacancies on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors that President Donald Trump has struggled to fill
  • Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s support surged after the country’s first imperial abdication and accession in two centuries — a highly watched event fanning national pride that boosted his standing ahead of a July upper house election

Asian stocks and US equity futures began the week negative as focus remained on the US-China trade tensions with US President Trump unwilling to backdown in a Twitter tirade during the weekend in which he alleged that China loves ‘ripping off’ America. Furthermore, President Trump suggested China may have felt they were being beaten so badly on negotiations that it may want to wait around for the next election but warned that a deal will be far worse for them if it is negotiated during his second term, while he also recently stated that the process has begun to place additional tariffs at 25% on the remaining USD 325bln of Chinese goods. ASX 200 (-0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.7%) were negative with Australia led lower by weakness in financials after index top-component CBA reported a decline in Q3 profits and as ANZ Bank shares traded ex-dividend, while Tokyo sentiment was weighed by currency flows and a deluge of earnings, with the “Sell in May…” idiom holding true as the Japanese benchmark sits on losses of around 1000 points month to date. Elsewhere, the Shanghai Comp. (-1.2%) was also weaker amid the absence of Hong Kong participants and due to the ongoing trade dispute with negotiators said to be at odds on 3 major issues including disagreement on removal of all remaining tariffs as well as the wording of a deal and with China said to view US import targets as unrealistic, while the PBoC also skipped open market operations again which resulted to a daily net liquidity drain of CNY 20bln. Finally, 10yr JGBs were relatively flat with only minimal support seen despite the negative risk tone and BoJ’s presence in the market for a total JPY 750bln in 1yr-5yr JGBs.

Top Asian News

  • Japan’s ‘Worsening’ Economy Could Fuel More Talk of Tax Delay
  • Lira Tumbles as Turkey Inc. Rushes to Buy Dollars After Rally
  • Malaysia Bubble Tea Chain Said to Seek $72 Million IPO Next Year
  • MSCI Adds China Stocks Just When Foreigners Don’t Want Them

European equities are following on from the downbeat Asia-Pac trade [Eurostoxx 50 -0.5%] as focus remains on US-China trade developments after the two sides failed to reach a deal on Friday. Indices are experiencing broad-based losses, although the FTSE 100 (Unch) is outperforming as heavyweights BP (+1.2%) and Shell (+1.5%) rose to the top of the index amid price action in energy markets. Sectors are mostly in the red with the Energy sector (+1.0%) clearly outperforming whilst defensive sectors are buoyed by the uninspiring risk sentiment. Auto names are largely subdued by the trade spats with the US, ahead of the potential US auto import tariffs by May 18, although some desks expect a delay to the deadline given US’ standstill with China. Meanwhile, Renault (-1.4%) shares took a dive after Le Monde reported that the Co. are said to have discovered a failing of their anti-pollution system. Elsewhere, Thyssenkrupp (-6.3%) rests at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after calling off their deal with Tata Steel, which sparked some concerns amongst Indian shareholders and UK unions. Back to trade, JPM acknowledges that there is no visibility in regards to the next trade move, with sentiment to potentially worsen before getting better, although the analysts to expect a compromise as the most probable outcome as the sides have too much to lose heading into the upcoming US election and the 70yr anniversary of the People’s Republic of China. “In a sense, the more markets suffer near term, the more are they likely to bounce, as key actors are forced to deescalate” JPM concludes.

Top European News

  • Vodafone Falls Most Since January on Dividend Cut Speculation
  • Barclays Hires Ex-Nomura Banker Brown for Equity Capital Markets
  • Casino Plunges to 8-Month Low After Kepler Downgrades to Reduce
  • Vodacom Updates Profit Target on Growth From African Purchase

In FX, JPY/CHF/USD – Aversion is spreading if not quite running rife or reaching FTQ proportions and the catalyst is the failure to find a compromise on trade after the latest round of talks between the US and China. Hence, the Yen and Franc are outperforming, with the former eyeing 109.60 vs the Dollar and strong resistance at 109.50 that has held twice, while Usd/Chf is now under 1.0100 from 1.0200+ recently and Eur/Chf is testing bids below the 200 DMA (1.1341). However, the DXY is also deriving underlying support ahead of 97.000 and a key chart level just above the big figure that has been tested on a couple of occasions (circa 97.150) as the Greenback registers gains against riskier/high beta G10, and the Greenback rallies more broadly vs EMs.

  • GBP/EUR – Minor exceptions to the major rule as Cable retains its grip of 1.3000, albeit only just as UK PM May faces yet another tough week of Brexit negotiations and prepares for a showdown on Thursday with the 1922 committee that is urging her to set a resignation date. Similarly, the single currency remains above 1.1200 within a relatively tight 1.1224-45 range with the base coinciding with the 30 DMA and the headline pair also flanked by decent expiry options (1.4 bn between 1.1190-1.1200 and 1.3 bn from 1.1240 to 1.1250).
  • AUD/NZD/CAD/NOK/SEK – All on the receiving end of investor angst and with the Aussie and Norwegian Krona also undermined by data in the form of housing finance, investment lending and mortgages, and Q1 GDP as Norway’s mainland growth slowed more than expected and contracted in total SA terms. Aud/Usd is back below 0.7000 as a result and not far from 2019 lows (stripping out the early January ‘flash crash’ trough), while Eur/Nok has touched 9.8500 as Eur/Sek hit 10.8500 and decade highs. Elsewhere, the Kiwi and Loonie are also suffering from safe-haven positioning and sub-0.6600 and 1.3400 respectively, with the latter also wary of expiry interest in decent size, albeit not close to current levels (1 bn at the 1.3300 strike and 1.1 bn at 1.3550).
  • EM – As noted above, more depreciation across the region with the Cny ending well down from PBoC midpoint fix levels at 6.8700+ vs 6.7954 and Cnh through late December 2018 lows at 6.9070. Meanwhile, not even a narrower than forecast March current account deficit has saved the Try from another decline through 6.0000 and brief fall to 6.1000 having rebounded towards the 21 DMA (5.9409) at one stage and on the back of heavy intervention (4.5 bn touted).
  • Bank of Thailand says the nation may be added to US currency manipulators watch list but adds they have not intervened in THB for advantage in trade with US. (Newswires)

In commodities, WTI (+1.4%) and Brent (+1.5%) prices have been on the rise as the complex sets aside trade woes and focus on a number of supply-side developments. 1) Over the weekend, two Saudi oil tankers were attacked off the coast of UAE, on the way to the Persian Gulf to load oil. The UAE stated that the tankers have been damaged although the OPEC producer did not mention the precise nature of the incident.  The Saudi Energy Minister condemned the attacks, which comes at a time of heightened tensions in the area following US deploying carriers, bombers and defence missiles to the region amid friction with Iran, although nobody has claimed responsibility for the attack thus far. 2) State-side, the Houston shipping channel is closed following the collision between a tanker and two oil barges which resulted in a spill of 9k barrel of reformate (intermediate stage in the production of gasoline). Cleaning is underway, although the shipping disruptions caused are likely to cause a backlog on imports and exports. 3) Sources noted that Russia produced 11.16mln of oil thus far in May, down from April’s 11.23mln, whilst the oil intake by the Transneft pipeline fell 6% vs. April’s average volumes. As a reminder, this week sees the release of the OPEC and IEA Monthly Oil Reports followed by the JMMC meeting over the weekend as the cartel is seemingly shifting towards extending supply curbs past June, however, a revaluation may be needed given the rising threats on the supply-side. Elsewhere, precious metals are largely unchanged as a firm Dollar caps gains for gold (-0.2%) and silver (-0.4%). Meanwhile, copper (-1.0%) prices are heavily pressured by the overall risk-averse tone and demand disruptions from the US-China trade war, whilst iron ore futures benefitted as steelmakers replenish its stock of the base metal. Saudi Energy Minister Al Falih condemned an attack on 2 Saudi vessels that were sabotaged on Sunday morning near UAE.

US Event Calendar

  • May 13-May 15: Mortgage Delinquencies, prior 4.06%
  • May 13-May 15: MBA Mortgage Foreclosures, prior 0.95%
  • 9:05am: Fed’s Rosengren, Clarida Makes Remarks at Fed Listens Event
  • 1:20pm: Fed’s Kaplan Speaks At Community Forum In Brownsville, Texas

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy Monday. My weekend was defined by 83 seconds. The length of time I actually thought Liverpool might win the league after 29 long years. Alas no, as Man City only took that long to equalise after going behind. It was all downhill from then. The rest of the weekend was mostly spent trying to ensure the children and dog didn’t ruin our new house. When you’ve spent a fortune on a nice new kitchen it’s a bit stressful to have children ride around it at speed on toy bikes and cars bumping into woodwork as they corner bends. Not to mention bolognese sauce being flung onto expensive tiles.

Global markets had some dents and chips taken out of it last week and without stating the obvious it’s all about US/China trade negotiations at the moment. We’ll recap later how last Sunday’s sudden and dramatic escalation impacted various global asset prices on the week but first let’s make a few observations and see where we are with the latest news.

What has blindsided me over the last week was that I genuinely thought Mr Trump’s rhetoric had completely changed since the huge sell off in Q4 last year. It seemed to me that his 2019 language was all about getting a deal and maybe that he was starting to prepare for the 2020 election campaign and to ensure the economy wasn’t at risk from a major trade war. Clearly I misread the signs but it could still be a brief escalation before a deal over the next few weeks/months. However the stakes have been raised enough for it to be tough for either side to back down imminently so one wouldn’t expect the news flow to rapidly improve in the near term. It doesn’t help that the Chinese economy has stabilised and that the S&P 500 is back close to record highs even with a small sell off last week. So there is no immediate need for anyone to backtrack. As such, markets will likely struggle for a while although last week they did try to rally back a few times as softer trade headlines and rhetoric brought us back from larger falls.

So where do we stand as we go to print? Mr Trump tweeted about trade several times over the weekend. Yesterday, he said “we are right where we want to be with China” and that the Chinese “LOVE ripping off America!” This is probably not the tone from a man who is about to backtrack on his threats. On Saturday, he had said that it would be wise for China to get a trade deal now or risk worse terms after his re-election in 2020. This hints at evidence that maybe the Chinese are thinking that playing a medium-term game of gambling on a new President in 2020 would be preferable to signing up to something now. The rhetoric from China also continues to pin blame on the US for trade talks failure with the People’s Daily (Communist Party’s mouthpiece) saying in a front-page commentary over the weekend that the US should take full responsibility for the setbacks because it went back on its word and imposed more levies while adding, “that cast a shadow on the trade talks and directly led to the fruitless outcome”. Elsewhere, the Xinhua news agency carried an article on Sunday touting that the escalating tariffs will do more damage to American companies while hurting both sides and later carried a commentary saying that China can overcome any difficulties as long as it remains confident while listing a number of reasons for the nation’s confidence, including strong leadership, a superior socialism system and a united people. Again not words of a nation looking for a ladder to climb down.

In the meantime, the USTR Robert Lighthizer has said that the Trump administration will today release details of its plans for tariffs on an additional $300 billion of imports from China. All these weekend comments came after Friday’s trade talks ended without much sign of progress. China Vice Premier Liu He said to domestic media after the talks that the U.S. must remove all extra tariffs, agree targets for purchases of Chinese goods in line with real demand, and that the text of any deal needs to be “balanced” to ensure the “dignity” of both nations.

The next step is to see what retaliation China implements. DB’s Zhiwei Zheng believes they will increase tariffs on USD60bn of US exports to China. It announced this list of goods last year but the tariff was not fully implemented. Zhiwei’s key question after that is whether the US will move to impose tariffs on the remaining around USD300bn of Chinese exports (Lighthizer overnight suggests we’ll learn more on this later). As our Chinese team have previously discussed in their notes they are significantly different from the other Chinese exports, as they include mostly consumer goods such as smartphones, computers, and textiles, and US consumers are more dependent on China for these goods. So there are ways this could get more painful, especially as these goods are well integrated into the global supply chain.

If you’re looking for good news it is that the two sides seem to be continuing talks and that Mr Trump’s personal relationship with President Xi Jinping seems to still be strong on the surface and the former is always keen to praise the latter in public pronouncements. Yesterday Larry Kudlow, Trump’s top economic adviser, told Fox News that Trump would meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the G20 meeting in late June.

Asia markets are heading lower this morning with the Nikkei (-0.52%), Shanghai Comp (-0.99%) and Kospi (-1.00%) all down. 10yr USTs are 3.2bps lower. EM Fx is trading weak again this morning with the onshore yuan -0.45% to 6.8570, the weakest since January. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are down -1.02%. In commodities, CBT Soybean futures are down -0.90% and corn futures are down -0.71%. Markets in Hong Kong are closed for a holiday.

The moves in Asia follow a difficult week. However on Friday US equities staged another impressive rebound throughout the afternoon session. The catalyst was an improvement in the tone of rhetoric from the negotiators on both sides of the trade dispute. Secretary Mnuchin called the talks “constructive,” while Liu He said that they went “fairly well.” The two parties agreed to hold additional talks in Beijing in the near future, but did not formalise any plans. This is slightly out of date now but the S&P 500 having traded down as much as -1.58% retraced all of this to close +0.37% higher as the situation evolved. That rebound of +1.98% off the lows was the third instance of a +1% rally off the lows last week, the best since the second week of January. The S&P 500 nevertheless ended the week -2.18% lower on the week, its worst week since December. The DOW and NASDAQ ended the week -2.12% and -3.03% lower (+0.44% and +0.08% Friday) respectively. Banks and semiconductors underperformed, falling -3.19% and -5.85% (-0.74% and +0.14% Friday) respectively. Utility stocks outperformed, falling only -0.71% on the week (+1.73% Friday). In Europe, the STOXX 600 ended down -3.39% (-0.32% Friday), with European banks underperforming even more sharply, down -6.34% (+0.12% Friday).

Two-year treasury yields ended the week -6.7bps (+0.8bps Friday) while 10-year yields fell -5.8bps (+2.5bps Friday). Bund yields fell back into negative territory after dipping -7.0bps on the week (+0.2bps Friday). The dollar index weakened -0.20% (-0.05% Friday), but much of that was driven by discrete euro strength, which rallied +0.31% (+0.16% Friday). EM currencies were the bigger losers, shedding -0.57% (+0.25% Friday) with the Chinese yuan leading losses after retreating -1.60% (-0.11% Friday).

Moving on to other news and Brexit stories are staring to build again. Press reports suggest that the UK is mulling reopening Brexit talks with the EU with the PM’s office saying over the weekend that the government will explore with the EU this week how to rewrite the outline political agreement on future customs ties. A meeting is scheduled today involving Labour officials and the senior government negotiating team including May’s de facto deputy David Lidington and her chief of staff Gavin Barwell where they are due to bring together all the work and proposals from the past month of talks. Elsewhere, latest opinion polls in the UK are indicating that support for Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is soaring with the Opinium survey for the Observer newspaper indicating that the Brexit Party would take 34% of the vote in the May 23 European Parliament elections, compared with 21% for Labour and just 11% for the Conservatives. A reminder that through most of Q1 the Conservatives were polling just under 40%. They’ve been hit hardest by the failure to deliver Brexit.

In other news, Italian daily Corriere della Sera reported yesterday that Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is suspecting that deputy premier Matteo Salvini may be preparing to bring down the populist coalition as he is trying to put immigration back at the top of the political agenda with a grab for control over shipping in Italian waters. The report went on to add that Conte fears the move is a “landmine” that will give Salvini an excuse to end the populist coalition within weeks and as a result is mulling delaying a cabinet meeting at which the above would be discussed to defuse the situation.

As for this week, other than that the latest trade developments, data highlights include China’s key activity indicators, US retail sales and Germany Q1 GDP. There’s also plenty of Fedspeak to look forward to as well as comments from various ECB speakers. Wednesday is the key day with the April activity indicators due in China which includes industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment. At the time of writing the consensus is for that data to show that China’s economy has continued to stabilise at the start of Q2. The focus in Europe on Wednesday then turns to the Q1 GDP reports for Germany and the Euro Area. The preliminary forecast for Germany is for a +0.4% qoq reading with weakness in manufacturing offset by strength in services and also a boost from construction. Remember Germany only narrowly avoided a technical recession at the end of last year. The reading for the Euro Area will be a second look with the preliminary reading showing a better-than-expected +0.4% qoq. It’s expected that the second reading will show a similar print. Finally the US session ends with the April retail sales report which is expected to show a +0.4% mom core print and +0.3% mom control group reading. We’ll also get the April industrial production print in the US on Wednesday where the consensus is for a +0.1% mom rise. The rest of the week’s data (and central bank speakers) will be in the day by day week ahead at the end.

Before we go through this day by day guide it’s worth touching on Friday’s slightly softer than expected US CPI report which saw front-end treasury yields fall a few basis points. Core CPI came in at 0.1% mom (vs 0.2% expected), 2.1% yoy (in-line), with the 3m annualised rate sliding to 1.6% – the lowest rate since July 2017.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 88.26 POINTS OR 3.10%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 239.17 POINTS OR 0.84%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 57.21 POINTS OR 0.27%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .25%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8246 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 61.92 dollars per barrel for WTI and 70.47 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8246 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8550 TRADE TALKS STILL ON//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP THREATENS TO RAISE RATES TO 25%

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA

 

 

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

end

3 C CHINA/CHINESE AFFAIRS

i)China/USA/Friday night

Trump pulls the trigger and raises the tariffs on all remaining imports from China valued at 300 million dollars.  Thus the total tariffs on all Chinese goods are just south of 600 billion dollars. And the talks are “constructive?”.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Pulls The Trigger: Begins Process Of Raising Tariffs On All Remaining $300 Billion China Imports 

In an unexpected Friday development – President Trump began the process of raising tariffs on all remaining imports from China, valued at approximately $300 billion. The move follows a Friday tariff increase on Chinese imports from 10% to 25% effective just after midnight.

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer issued a Friday statement – after market hours of course – which reads:

“Earlier today, at the direction of the President, the United States increased the level of tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent on approximately $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. The President also ordered us to begin the process of raising tariffs on essentially all remaining imports from China, which are valued at approximately $300 billion.”

Lighthizer noted that the process for a public notice and comment period on the tariff decision will be published shortly in the Federal Register, while more details will also be made available on the USTR’s website on Monday.

Meanwhile, trade talks between China and the US appear to have stalled once again on three areas, according to Bloomberg – including whether the US would remove the increased tariffs, targets set for US imports which Beijing deems unrealistic, and finally – the wording of the trade agreement itself.

For those keeping track, here is a timeline of the trade war via Rabobank:

xx

China’s car sales plummeted to oblivion in April dropping a huge 16.6%.  This is the 11lth straight month for falls in sales of cars. China’s domestic market is in serious crisis

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Car Sales Tank 16.6% In April, Falling For A Record 11 Months In A Row

No country has better exemplified the global automobile recession than China. Sales for the world’s largest auto market continue to deteriorate, with the latest report confirming that passenger vehicle sales in China tanked yet again – this time dropping 16.6% year-over-year to 1.54 million units, following a 12% decline in March and an 18.5% slide in February. In addition, April SUV sales fell 14.7% to 642,220 units.

The last time retail auto sales were up in China was all the way back in May 2018, meaning sales have declined for a record 11 months in a row.

The country’s slowing economy and continued trade tensions with the United States are weighing on consumer sentiment among its 1.4 billion people. Additionally, changes in tax policies and import tariffs have also acted as a headwind for car demand. Cars were the only consumer product category in China that shrank the first two months of 2019.

“There’s little hope for us to see positive signs for the auto market in the first half,” Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the industry group, said. As regular readers may recall, this is the same, once optimistic Cui who suggested in March that car sales “may recover in April”. He predicted poorly.

Despite the market contracting, names like Volkswagen, Honda and Toyota all gained ground. Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co.’s Wuling and Baojun brands both fell in April, according to LMC Automotive. Ford reported a 54% sales plunge in China last year and said last week that it’s introducing more than 30 vehicles targeted specifically for Chinese consumers over the next three years to help it hone its focus on the market.

Some additional data, according to Bloomberg:

  • Nissan Motor Co. reported a 2.9% sales decline
  • Jaguar Land Rover posted a 46% drop
  • China’s Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. had a 19% decrease
  • Great Wall Motor Co. reported a 2.5% gain

The industry continues to hope for catalysts from the Chinese government, betting on consumer incentives like tax cuts. Last month, we noted that retail sales of sedans, SUVs, minivans and multipurpose vehicles dropped 12% to 1.78 million units, according to the China Passenger Car Association. This was after an 18.5% drop in February and a 4% drop in January.


Chen Hong, chairman of SAIC Motor, China’s biggest automaker, had said last month: “2019 will bring severe challenges.” Trying to rally his employees in an internal worker memo, he called for his company to “accelerate innovation and strive toward higher quality”. SAIC’s sales fell 17% in the first two months of 2019.

Not only have we recently commented about collapses in other countries, noting auto registrations in Germany falling 1.1% in April, but we have also written about how the slowdown in the world of auto manufacturing is taking its toll on other industries, like the steel industry.

Days ago, we wrote about European steelmakers offering lower profit guidance on the back of softness in the automobile industry. ArcelorMittal, for instance, expects demand in Europe to contract by 1% this year, compared to their earlier forecast of 1% growth. Regional lobby group Eurofer predicted earlier this year that demand would fall by 0.4%.

The company said Thursday: “Market conditions in the first quarter of 2019 have been challenging. Demand has generally been lackluster, reflecting softness in manufacturing activity and continued weakness in automotive.”

The global auto recession has wreaked havoc, especially because products for cars are usually the most profitable for steelmakers. This is especially true for Germany’s premium brands that demand high-quality metal. The auto industry accounts for about 20% of total steel demand. Car sales in Europe have declined for seven straight months through March. 

There was one small sliver of good news, as ArcelorMittal has projected demand will rise in China this year… but if April sales numbers are any indication, expect an adjusted downward revision in the coming days.

end

With all due respect I believe that there are more than these 3 conditions.  I believe that to start the discussions again, then the USA must remove all trade war related tariffs.  The other two demands as to purchase of Chinese goods should not be that much of a problem.  The real issue is still the theft of trade secrets and the sovereign funding state owned companies with subsidies

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Lists The Three Conditions To Agree To Trade Deal

In an unusual move, the Chinese delegation has come clean to the domestic press about Beijing’s remaining trade-deal related demands, exposing steep divides that could make it a final deal impossible for Trump, who has repeatedly said he will only accept a “great” deal.

Unsurprisingly, Liu He, the leading Chinese trade negotiator, confirmed what Beijing has intimated time and time again:

That without the complete removal of all trade-war related tariffs, Beijing will not remorse a deal.

The other two demands were related to American commitments to buy Chinese goods, something that could also pose a problem.

In a wide-ranging interview with Chinese media after talks in Washington ended Friday, Vice Premier Liu He said that in order to reach an agreement the U.S. must remove all extra tariffs, set targets for Chinese purchases of goods in line with real demand and ensure that the text of the deal is “balanced” to ensure the “dignity” of both nations.

Underscoring the parlous nature of the negotiation, Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Friday that the administration is planning to release details of its process for imposing tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese imports. The move will likely have the desired effect: Communicating that Trump doesn’t plan to yield on what’s left of his core demands.

For those keeping track, here’s a timeline courtesy of Rabobank.

RABOBANK

But as campaigning for the upcoming presidential vote ramps up, the administration will need to carefully consider the pressure on the American consumer that might become a factor if the price of all goods flowing into the US from China is forced higher due to the additional tariffs.

In his interview Liu said both sides agreed to keep talking despite what he called “some temporary resistance and distractions,’’ and to hold future meetings in Beijing. He dismissed the idea that talks had broken down. “It’s normal to have hiccups during the negotiations. It’s inevitable.”

Liu also struck a note of defiance. “For the interest of the people of China, the people of U.S. and the the people of the whole world, we will deal with this rationally,” the vice premier said.

“But China is not afraid, nor are the Chinese people,” adding that “China needs a cooperative agreement with equality and dignity.”

Ultimately, respecting national sovereignty was a major theme in the talks. but whether Trump is willing to make these concessions and risk looking weak before the man who is emperor of one-fifth of the world’s population.

 

end

The markets were just not ready for this worst case scenario on the failed China/USA trade deal/talks

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Odds Point To A Worst-Case Scenario”: Shocked Traders Respond To Latest Trade War Twist

Friday’s euphoric reversal, which saw the Dow Jones first tumble some 400 points before staging a miraculous 500 points comeback on no news but a rebound in optimism that just because new US import tariffs were put in place that would make a trade deal/compromise between the US and China more likely, appears to have been… premature.

Following some soothing words from both the US and Chinese sides on Friday that while talks to avert a tariff hikes had failed, they were “constructive” and there was grounds for “cautious optimism” for the future, the standoff between the U.S. and China abruptly escalated over the weekend when China’s vice premier Liu He said that China is planning how to retaliate and listed three core concerns that must be addressed, and on which it wouldn’t make concessions, ahead of any deal including:

  • i) the complete removal of all trade-war related tariffs,
  • ii) set targets for Chinese purchases of goods in line with real demand and
  • iii) ensure that the text of the deal is “balanced” to ensure the “dignity” of both nations.

Commenting on this list, the Editor in Chief of the Global Times, Hu Xijin, who has become a real-time translator for Chinese unspoken intentions on twitter, explained that “from perspective of China’s politics, there is little room for compromises. They will insist.This political logic won’t be changed no matter how much additional tariffs the US will impose.”

Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT

China has made public 3 core concerns that must be addressed &it won’t make concessions on. From perspective of China’s politics, there is little room for compromises. They will insist.This political logic won’t be changed no matter how much additional tariffs the US will impose.

Trump responded immediately on Twitter when he made it clear on Saturday that the US would not relent, stating that the Chinese may have felt they were “being beaten so badly” in the recent talks that it was better to drag their feet in hopes he would lose the 2020 election and get a better deal from the Democrats. Trump then said that “the only problem is that they know I am going to win (best economy & employment numbers in U.S. history, & much more), and the deal will become far worse for them if it has to be negotiated in my second term. Would be wise for them to act now, but love collecting BIG TARIFFS!

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I think that China felt they were being beaten so badly in the recent negotiation that they may as well wait around for the next election, 2020, to see if they could get lucky & have a Democrat win – in which case they would continue to rip-off the USA for $500 Billion a year….

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….The only problem is that they know I am going to win (best economy & employment numbers in U.S. history, & much more), and the deal will become far worse for them if it has to be negotiated in my second term. Would be wise for them to act now, but love collecting BIG TARIFFS!

Which in retrospect means that anyone who had hoped for a quick and easy resolution as per Friday’s market action, may be disappointed when futures open for trading in a few hours.

As a result, amid the prospect of immediate retaliation from Beijing to the U.S. decision to slap higher tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports, traders are expecting a jump in volatility as investors dump risk assets in favor of U.S. Treasuries, gold, the dollar, yen and Swiss franc. Below, courtesy of Bloomberg, is a sample of trader reactions to the rapidly moving trade war narrative which is quickly shifting from optimism to pessimism:

Nader Naeimi, who oversees about $1 billion in a dynamic market fund at AMP Capital Investors Ltd. in Sydney, said by email:

“The biggest problem is the huge disconnect with what markets have been hoping for and what is transpiring now. Markets had priced the best-case scenario and odds are shifting towards the worst-case scenario”

“China’s response was certainly not what risk markets were hoping for, so I expect huge volatility” at the Asia open

Note: China is planning how to retaliate and has told Washington that it must remove all extra tariffs, set targets for Chinese purchases of goods in line with real demand, and ensure that the text of the deal is “balanced” to ensure the “dignity” of both nations

“China demanding the U.S. drop the tariffs is setting the stage for a serious face-off”

“Economic tensions can now morph into military tensions between the two countries, and then with the U.S.-Iran flexing their muscles, oil prices are at risk of spiking up”

“For complacent equities, a perfect storm is brewing: tariffs, higher prices, a possible spike in oil prices in the face of fragile global growth. My asset allocation is gold, oil, inflation-linked bonds and defensive positioning”

Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Singapore-based senior macro strategist at NatWest Markets, told Bloomberg in an email:

“Forward-looking currency markets are reacting to the prospect of China’s trade surplus falling and Chinese corporates with $840 billion of onshore foreign-exchange loans pre-emptively buying dollars: Similar behavior last year caused the exchange rate to rise from 6.25 to 6.95”

The dollar’s strength against the yuan signals the greenback should remain strong versus the euro and other major currencies

A sharply higher greenback fueled by trade wars was a key threat U.S. investors raised when the NatWest team visited clients in New York, Seattle and California recently

“For the Federal Reserve — still unwilling to consider easing monetary policy — a surge in the dollar may become a risk to its current neutral outlook”

Mohammed Ali Yasin, chief strategy officer at Al Dhabi Capital in Abu Dhabi, said in a text message:

There’s concern that the new tariffs will be borne by U.S. consumers as prices will increase accordingly, lifting inflation above the Federal Reserve’s normalized rate of 2 percent

“That may change the current stance of interest rates in the U.S. from hold-to-cut to become hold-to-raise by year end or early 2020, which means more stock-market volatility and negative pressures”

“I really find the way Trump used his Tweets to manage the failure of the trade talks with China a failure in itself!”

“I believe it undermined his negotiation team and killed any chance of a possible compromise to be reached privately before making a public statement by those teams! It looked like he panicked and wanted to throw the blame on them rather take part of the responsibility!”

Hasnain Malik, the Dubai-based head of equity strategy at Tellimer, said in an email:

“Progress in U.S.-China trade talks is always going to be partial and temporary because the clash of interests at stake are not easily reconciled and the two negotiating parties are not under urgent pressure to settle”

The set-back in negotiations will hurt global growth expectations and pressure emerging-market assets

“For those economies with manufacturing integrated with China it is worse. But it also remains the case that rival manufacturing exporters to China, such as Bangladesh and Vietnam, should benefit, over time, from the redirection of purchasing orders and greater marginal capacity addition”

Raffaele Bertoni, head of debt-capital markets at Gulf Investment Corp. in Kuwait City, said in an email:

Investors who are exposed to emerging-market assets should protect their portfolio by switching from countries that are already suffering from significant inflation pressure and heavily dependent on foreign-currency debt — including the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Turkey, Brazil and Argentina — to countries where interest rates are already low and there’s more room for easing monetary policy to support growth, such as South Korea, Thailand and Mexico

U.S. Treasuries would be one of the few safe havens “still cheap in terms of real rates”

Sees upside for U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds while remaining more cautious on U.S. high-yield debt which is more correlated to the performance of equity markets

Expects the dollar, Japanese yen and Swiss franc to benefit from demand for haven assets.

end

Sunday;  The Chinese Media now accuses the USA of using a fierce and irrational offensive against China in their trade talks and that causes the trade talks to collapse

(courtesy zerohedge)

Chinese Media Accuses “Fierce, Irrational US Offensive” For Trade Talk Collapse

So much for what Steve Mnuchin called “constructive” talks.

It will hardly come as a surprise that just as the US blamed China for reneging on trade negotiations in the 11th hour and raising tariffs on $200BN of Chinese imports to 25%, China has done the same and on Sunday the flagship newspaper of the communist party, the People’s Daily, said the U.S. should take full responsibility for trade-talk setbacks because it raised tariffs on China’s products, state television reported according to Bloomberg.

Issuing a mirror image of Washington’s own narrative, China’s CCTV state broadcaster said that China sought a mutually beneficial agreement but the U.S. went back on its word, citing a commentary that will be published on Monday, according to which even though the mainland has always attached great importance to the talks but has been pushed to its limits.

Separately, the state-owned Global Times tabloid, the nationalist English-language sister publication of the People’s Daily, posted a similar editorial late Sunday local time which described “the fierce U.S. offensive” against China as “irrational” and hurtful to the U.S. economy. In the article, the author claimed that China “is willing to reach a deal” on trade but will never make concessions on issues of principle, nor trade its core interests.”

And so the US now waits to see just how China will respond.

During the Sunday morning TV, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said that the Trump administration is expecting retaliation from China, but stressed that negotiations are ongoing during a several week grace period before Chinese goods that were shipped to the US after midnight on Friday are eventually taxed at the new tariff rate.

“The problem is two weeks ago in China there was backtracking by the Chinese,” Kudlow said on “Fox News Sunday”, throwing the ball of responsibility back in China’s court. “The expected countermeasures have not yet materialized. We may know more today or even this evening or tomorrow,” Larry Kudlow said on Fox.

Seeking to modestly defuse tensions, Kudlow added the potential additional tariffs may take months to implement: “Call it a couple of months. Call it three months. I don’t know. That will take some time and then of course the president’s going to have to make the final decision on that.”

Addressing a growing fear that the escalating trade war will hit US consumers with even higher prices, Kudlow predicted that the impact on U.S. jobs and growth from higher tariffs assessed on Chinese goods would be “de minimis,” while conceding that “both sides” will suffer from the trade war. On the other hand, considering that tens of billions in Chinese imports may soon be hit with tariffs, China

In his first interview since high-level talks between Chinese and American officials broke up Friday without a deal, Kudlow told “Fox News Sunday” that China has invited U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin back to Beijing.

Kudlow also added that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are likely to meet during the G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, in late June, and that negotiations are ongoing.

“The talks will continue, and I will say this, there’s a G20 meeting in Japan toward the end of June, the chances President Trump and President Xi will get together at that meeting are probably pretty good,” he said, adding that China has invited U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin back to Beijing, although no date has been set so far for fresh talks.

It is also notable that Kudlow brike with the official Trump narrative, admitting that the Chinese do not directly pay tariffs on goods coming into the U.S., as Trump has repeatedly claimed.

Embedded video

Kyle Griffin

@kylegriffin1

Larry Kudlow admits that the Chinese do not directly pay tariffs on goods coming into the U.S., as Trump has repeatedly, and incorrectly, claimed.
Via Fox

“It’s not China that pays tariffs. It’s the American importers, the American companies that pay what in effect is a tax increase and oftentimes passes it on to U.S. consumers,” Wallace said.

As we noted earlier , on Saturday, President Donald Trump said in tweets that it would be wise for China to “act now” to finish a trade deal with the U.S., warning that “far worse” terms would be offered after what he predicted would be his certain re-election in 2020.

* * *

And so, as attention turns to China’s “countermeasures”, Bloomberg notes that while the Communist Party hasn’t yet announced what steps it would take, “the commentaries are probably the first part of its response, since state media in China is tightly controlled and the government dictates what can be covered.”

“If they weren’t being seriously provoked, the Chinese people would not favor any trade war. However, once the country is strategically coerced, nothing is unbearable for China in order to safeguard its sovereignty and dignity,” the Global Times said in the editorial. If the U.S. is to play a roller-coaster-style thriller game, it will bear the consequences.”

In an earlier editorial, the Global Times said the U.S. has made a fundamental misjudgment, that is, believing China is unilaterally benefiting from China-U.S. economic and trade relations.”

“The U.S. has misunderstood the interests of both sides, and seriously underestimated China’s endurance,” the Global Times warned.

So to summarize the current state of the talks that on Friday were described as “constructive” helping send the Dow soaring by over 500 points intraday, here is a quick recap courtesy of Mish Shedlock:

  1. Trump demands China put commitments into law.
  2. China replied that “no one should expect China to swallow bitter fruit that harms its core interests”.
  3. Trump ordered Lighthizer to begin the process of imposing tariffs on all remaining imports from China This would impact an additional $300 billion worth of goods.
  4. China said it would retaliate.
  5. On Saturday, Trump warned China not to retaliate or it would face worse terms. Trump Tweeted “Love collecting BIG TARIFFS!”
  6. Kudlow said on Sunday he expected retaliatory tariffs to kick in but that it had not happened yet.
  7. China warned Trump on Sunday not to underestimate China’s endurance and that China is not afraid to fight.
  8. China posted its own set of demands for further talks including the removal of all extra tariffs.

As Mish concludes, “This dialog is what’s known as “constructive”. It’s so constructive that further talks between Trump and have been pushed back until the end of June, subject to change of course.”

Meanwhile, as the market’s hope for quick resolution fades, keep an eye on Apple and other Chinese consumer-reliant companies, for the market’s snap reaction – if Beijing plans to engage in “soft retaliation”, it is those corporations that derive much of their revenue from China that will be hit first and hardest. And if there is indeed a shift in sentiment, it will first appear in US equity futures and Chinese stocks, both of which open for trading in just a few hours.

end

The avalanche is coming:  China’s own version of JPMorgan (Minsheng) is now seeking money from its own employees in order to avoid collapse

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

China’s “JPMorgan” Seeks Money From Its Employees To Avoid Collapse

Ever since Beijing allowed private Chinese companies (even certain state-owned enterprises) to officially fail for the first time in 2015, and file for bankruptcy to restructure their unsustainable debt loads, it’s been a one-way street of corporate bankruptcies, one which we profiled last June in “Is It Time To Start Worrying About China’s Debt Default Avalanche” (the answer, by the way, was yes), and which culminated with a record number of Chinese onshore bond defaults in 2018, as a liquidity crunch sparked a record 119.6 billion yuan in defaults on local Chinese debt last year.

But if 2018 was bad, 2019 is set to be the biggest by far for defaults in China’s $13 trillion bond market, highlighting the widening fallout from the government’s campaign to rein in leverage and China’s accelerating economic slowdown. According to Bloomberg, in just the first four months of the year, companies defaulted on 39.2 billion yuan ($5.8 billion) of domestic bonds, some 3.4 times the total for the same period of 2018. The pace is also more than triple that of 2016, when defaults were more concentrated in the first half of the year, unlike 2018.

However, whereas for much of 2018 Chinese defaults affected largely less meaningful companies with little to no systemic impact, in 2019 the defaults started hitting dangerously close to the beating heart of China’s massive, $40 trillion financial system (roughly three times China’s GDP). As we reported back in February, a giant Chinese borrower missed its payment deadline when Wintime Energy – which in 2018 became the latest Chinese bond defaulter as the coal miner failed to pay scheduled interest – didn’t honor part of a restructured debt repayment plan, setting the scene for even more corporate defaults, and as Bloomberg put it, “underscoring the risks piling up in a credit market that’s witnessing the most company failures on record.”

Then, at the start of April, China’s default tsunami appeared set to claim its biggest and most visible casualty yet as a debt crisis at one of China’s most well-known private conglomerates entered a new stage, when the company said cross-default clauses had been triggered on dollar bonds worth $800 million.

The company in question, China Minsheng Investment Group, was called “China’s JPMorgan” by Dong Wenbiao, known as the “godfather’’ of the nation’s private sector. CMIG’s investments, spanning health care to aviation, were predicated on funding obtained in part through shadow banking, and it’s become a surprise casualty of China’s deleveraging drive; it is one of the largest private investment conglomerates in China, and had 232 billion yuan in total debt and 310 billion yuan of assets as of June 2018, according to Shanghai Brilliance Credit Ratings.

The Shanghai-based company shocked bondholders by missing a payment in late January. While it was able to scrape enough cash together by selling land interests to repay the note on Feb. 14, in April we reported that its dollar bonds were put under default after an affiliate missed payments. CMIG also defaulted on a domestic bond due late April although it made good on the payment two days late.

China Minsheng, which has become a case study in how China will resolve potentially systematic defaults, reduced 43 billion yuan of interest-bearing debt since the start of 2018 and it’s trying to resolve its liquidity crisis via debt workout and business reorganization.

And now, in the latest unorthodox “restructuring” attempt, Reuters reports that China Minsheng is raising funds from its employees as it seeks to combat the liquidity squeeze that has sent the company to the verge of bankruptcy. The Chinese equivalent of a GoFundMe campaign for one of China’s largest investment has been set up in the form of a “funding pool” for the fundraising. To avoid the bankruptcy of their employer, all of CMIG’s employees in its headquarters can put their own money into the pool and choose between buying CMIG’s debt or equity, said the representative. 

As we reported last month, the debt-laden conglomerate – which was founded in 2014, and was once among China’s most high-profile and acquisitive private companies domestically and globally with businesses that span leasing, new energy, airlines, construction and investment – had missed payment and formed an emergency committee to deal with its liquidity troubles, raising investors’ fears about financing pressures on China’s overall private sector.

According to Refinitiv data, CMIG has 12 outstanding yuan bonds worth 29.75 billion yuan ($4.37 billion). It has also issued bonds worth $800 million through Boom Up Investments Ltd, a subsidiary domiciled in the British Virgin Islands; these traded down to 55 cents on the dollar late April before posting a very modest rebound.

Though it may come as a surprise to some, this is not the first time for a Chinese private company to raise money from its employees. Indebted conglomerate HNA Group, which two years ago fell from grace with Beijing after a historic acquisition spree around the globe, also sold investment products to staff but later missed some repayments under financial pressure.

Following the biggest-ever year for onshore defaults in 2018, Chinese corporate issuers again face a wall of bond maturities and more companies than ever are missing payments, raising risks for investors in the world’s third-largest bond market. Bonds from at least 44 Chinese companies totaling $43.7 billion face imminent repayment pressure. Looking further out, it gets even worse, as China’s corporate bond maturity schedule is staggering with trillions in bonds set to mature in coming quarters, assuring even more defaults to come.

(

“Short bond tenors mean the companies need to refinance frequently,” and weaker ones will likely have difficulty, analysts including Hong Kong-based Nino Siu at Moody’s Investors Service wrote in a note last month. “Banks are reluctant to lend to weaker companies. Additionally, shadow banking, on which weaker Chinese companies rely, continues to contract as the government tightens regulation,” she and her colleagues wrote.

Whether Minsheng employees’ “gofundme” campaign is successful in averting bankruptcy remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: Chinese issuers have already defaulted on bonds with a principal amount of 40 billion yuan in just the first four months of 2019, up 3.4 times the total for the same period of 2018. The trend is clear: unless something changes, 2019 will be the new high, and sooner or later a company will default that will be the tipping point for a debt tsunami that finally drags down China’s gargantuan financial sector.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

Nigel Farage’s party, the Brexit party, surges again and now stands at 34% support. Elections will be held on May 23 and it will be quite interesting to see huge gains across Europe in Eurosceptic party gains in the EU parliament.

(courtesy HumanEvents.com)

The Only Way Is Brexit: Farage Surges Again!

Via HumanEvents.com,

Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party has surged again. After parting ways with the increasingly irrelevant UK Independence Party (UKIP), Farage’s newly branded “people’s army” is now polling above the Labour and Conservative parties put together ahead of the European Parliamentary elections at the end of May.

 

From humble beginnings in his small, creaking Westminster office, the Brexit Party has managed to command the attention of the electorate ahead of what is being billed as an effective “second referendum”: the EuroParl elections.

New data published by the Observer newspaper (the Guardian’s Sunday, sister paper) reveals the Brexit Party polling at 34 per cent of the vote. Up another six points in the past week.

Meanwhile, Labour come in second with 21 per cent of the vote (down seven), and the Conservative Party trail in fourth – behind the Liberal Democrats (12) – with just 11 per cent of the vote. This, if realized, would be the Conservative Party’s worst ever performance in an election in modern history.

Westminster voting intention – if there were to be a domestic General Election soon – also spells major trouble for Theresa May’s so-called Conservative Party.

The Observer/Opinion poll shows Labour on 28 per cent, the Conservative Party on 22 per cent, and the Brexit Party on 21 per cent.

The shift in Labour votes to the Brexit Party in recent weeks is a direct result of Farage and the Brexit Party team taking their show on the road to the Labour heartlands of Britain.

Farage has held over a dozen rallies and events in recent weeks, predominantly targeting working class voters who opted to Leave the European Union, but have traditionally supported the Labour Party.

The Labour Party’s position on Brexit is still unclear, given its leader Jeremy Corbyn’s historically opposition to the European Union, but most of the remainder of the party being in favor.

Farage and co have taken clear advantage of the cognitive dissonance emanating from Labour, and the sheer ineptitude of May’s Conservative Party.

The European elections will be held on May 23, with Human Events on the ground in London, reporting.

 

end

Pompeo crashes Eu meeting pressuring officials in Brussels on Iran and Venezuela.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Pompeo Skips Moscow Trip To Pressure EU Officials In Brussels On Iran

It seems for the State Department lately it’s all Iran and Venezuela all the time, or perhaps there’s just an aversion to real diplomatic work.

After snubbing Germany’s Merkel last week to make an unplanned stop in Iraq to pressure leaders there into resisting cooperation with Iran, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Monday scrapped a scheduled trip to Moscow, diverting his plane for a surprise visit to Brussels to presumably crash an EU meeting exploring ways of salvaging the Iran nuclear deal

 

Last week Pompeo made a detour to Baghdad, snubbing Germany’s Merkel, in order to talk Iran. Image source: New York Times

It appears the “maximum pressure” campaign involves America’s top diplomat throwing his weight around in person anywhere around the globe their might be dissent among US allies.

Key European signatories of the 2015 landmark deal — the British, French and German governments — are seeking European coordinated efforts to prevent the JCPOA from collapsing.

Pompeo scrapped plans for a brief trip to Moscow and will land in the Belgian capital as his 28 EU counterparts gather. President Donald Trump’s top envoy plans to meet with key European allies, though the details are not yet known. — Bloomberg

Iran’s leaders last week threatened to pull out of key terms of the deal, asserting Europe has done little toward sanctions relief, and issued a 60-day ultimatum for Europe to honor its obligations. The EU responded that would reject any ultimatums. 

According to Bloomberg, Pompeo will still travel to Russia on Tuesday where he plans to meeting with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told reporters just ahead of the EU meeting in Brussels: “This agreement is necessary for our security; nobody wants Iran to possess an atomic bomb,” while EU foreign-policy chief Federica Mogherini described plans for Pompeo’s visit and meetings “still up in the air”.

END

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/

Turkey has two reserve funds:  foreign exchange reserves and a second legal reserves. For the past two months we have been referring to foreign exchange reserves which stood at 11 billion dollars but this value included gold valued at 22 billion.This means that their true foreign exchange reserves are -11 billion dollars (minus the gold).  The second fund is  a rainy day fund(legal reserve fund) and that stood at 40 billion lira or $6.6 billion dollars. Turkey just transferred those funds to government for spending purposes.  In other words, the central bank prints lira and sends it over to Erdogan for government spending.  Expect hyperinflation shortly in this country.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Lira Plummets On Turkey’s Plans To Transfer $6.6 Billion From Central Bank

With the Turkish Lira soaring on Friday, on what in retrospect turned out to be massive, FX-draining commercial bank intervention in the currency market, some TRY bulls were hopeful that their endless, currency crushing anguish may have been finally over, if only for the time being. Alas, it was not meant to be, and the lira resumed its collapse on Monday, with the move sharply lower sparked by a Reuters report that Turkey is about to officially become a banana republic in which the central bank is used to prop up Erdogan’s “executive presidency” because according to the report, Turkey’s Treasury ministry is working on legislation to transfer the central bank’s 40 billion lira ($6.6 billion) in legal reserves to the government’s budget to shore it up.

In what appears to be a roundabout way of saying the central bank – which can print lira – will be used to fund the government, a critical step that without fails ends in hyperinflation, economic and currency collapse, the Reuters sources said that the budget is deeper in deficit than expected, and so the central bank’s help will be needed to plug it.

As Reuters notes, “legal reserves” are separate to foreign exchange reserves, and are what the central bank sets aside from profits by law to be used in extraordinary circumstances. At end-2018, they stood at 27.6 billion lira, according to the bank’s balance sheet data. A second source with knowledge of the matter said last year’s “legal reserves” combined with this year’s amounted to the 40-billion lira figure, which was cited by all three people who spoke to Reuters.

“The Turkish central bank has around 40 billion lira in legal reserves. The transfer of this amount to the 2019 central administration budget was seen as suitable. This step aims at improving and strengthening the budget,” the second source said. It remained unclear how much of the reserves would ultimately be transferred and what, if any, new requirements would apply to the central bank.

As Reuters adds, the transfer would mark the second recent move by Ankara to tap the central bank’s funds to boost its budget. In January, the bank transferred some 37 billion lira in profits to the Treasury three months earlier than scheduled.

“I do not remember the use of legal reserves before. This method came up to stop further deterioration of the budget,” the source said. “There needs to be a legislation to transfer the central bank’s legal reserves. The new legislation is planned to be presented to the parliament soon.” the source said.

As a reference, Turkey’s budget recorded a 36.2 billon lira deficit in the first quarter of 2019, and is expected to soar to 80.6 billion lira by year end, which means that not even the entire “legal reserve” fund will be sufficient to keep Turkey afloat.

Needless to say, the report spooked investors as it suggests that Turkey’s fiscal standing continues to deteriorate, and is fueling concerns that the government is using the central bank to finance its deficit.

As a result, the lira – which already was tumbling as part of a US-China trade fiasco – slumped back under below the psychologically important mark of 6 per dollar. It traded 2.44% weaker at 6.1288 against the dollar after touching a one-week high of 5.9571 on Friday.

 

Not helping the lira was a Bloomberg report that as of early Monday, companies bought around $300 million, as local firms took advantage of Friday’s bouts of lira strength as an opportunity to scoop up dollars for Turkish companies saddled with a $315 b

illion foreign-exchange debt pile.

Putting Turkey’s unsustainable financial picture in context, as of February, the country’s non-financial companies’ hard-currency liabilities exceeded their foreign-exchange assets by $197 billion, equivalent to about a quarter of GDP, central bank data show. In other words, with every passing day, Turkey is getting closer to a dollar-denominated default, and its default risk is reflecting it: on Monday, Turkey CDS surged past 500 bps for the first time since September.

 

END
UAE/Saudi Arabia/the Gulf/Iran
No wonder gold rose on Monday:  the Saudis admit that two of their tankers were attacked in the Gulf following Sunday’s bizarre and mysterious explosions that rocked the UAE port of Fujairah
(courtesy zerohedge)

Oil Jumps After Saudis Admit Two Tankers Attacked As Iran Tensions Soar

The bizarre and mysterious explosions that rocked the UAE port of Fujairah on Sunday just got even more strange after Saudi Arabia admitted overnight that two of its oil tankers were attacked while sailing toward the Persian Gulf possibly as part of the incident.

Crude prices quickly jumped as much as 2% on the news. Throughout Sunday as what was being reported in international press as multiple oil tankers exploding at port, local UAE officials had vehemently denied any explosion, much less that any sabotage incident, took place.

But even more interesting is that it was primarily Iran-linked media, beginning with Lebanon’s Al Mayadeen, which first reported and pushed the story into mainstream coverage. But later in the day, we reported that the UAE finally acknowledged an incident, saying four commercial cargo ships were targeted by “sabotage operations” off its eastern coast, near the Gulf of Oman. And now, a full 24 hours later, this bombshell admission which is fast sending oil prices higher:

Saudi Arabia said on Monday that two of its oil tankers had been sabotaged off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, in attacks it described as posing a threat to the security of global oil supplies.

 

Via AFP/Haaretz: Saudi cargo ship Bahri Yanbu next to British crude oil tanker Nordic Space (L) waiting in the port of Le Havre, May 9, 2019

The state-run Saudi Press Agency (SPA) said Monday that one of the vessels was due to be loaded with Saudi crude oil from the port of Ras Tanura, after which it would eventually supply customers in the United States. International shipping monitors identified the Saudi vessels as Bahri-owned crude carrier Amjad and crude tanker Al Marzoqah.

No casualties or oil spills were reported as part of the “sabotage” incident, but the statement acknowledged “significant damage to the structures of the two vessels.”

Crucially, the tankers had been reportedly approaching the vial Strait of Hormuz, the key oil navigation choke point in the Persian Gulf which both Iran and the US have been warning and threatening the other over. Both sides have issued strike warnings against the other should there be any military move to close off access to the narrow strait.

Location of Sunday’s incident at the port of Fujairah, though it’s yet unclear in both incidents took place at the UAE site, via CNN:

Concerning Sunday’s Fujairah port incident at first denied – and then affirmed by the UAE, it is as yet unclear if that incident was the same as what the Saudis are now reporting as sabotage against their vessels.

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs called Sunday’s events a “dangerous development.” In a statement it said further, “The international community (needs to) assume its responsibilities to prevent any parties trying to undermine the security and safety of maritime traffic.”

Iran, for its part, urged caution and even suggested the events could be false-flag provocations designed to draw regional enemies into conflict. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Seyyed Abbas Mousavi said on Monday the incidents were “alarming and regrettable,” and urged that more details were needed.

He further warned against  “plots by ill-wishers to disrupt regional security” and called for “vigilance of regional states in the face of any adventurism by foreign elements.”

Importantly, the “sabotage” incidents come after the U.S. Maritime Administration warned last Thursday that Iran could target commercial sea traffic.

“Since early May, there is an increased possibility that Iran and/or its regional proxies could take action against U.S. and partner interests, including oil production infrastructure, after recently threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz,” the warning read. “Iran or its proxies could respond by targeting commercial vessels, including oil tankers, or U.S. military vessels in the Red Sea, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, or the Persian Gulf.”

So was Iran indeed “targeting commercial vessels”, or was someone pretending to be Iran and targeting commercial vessels, and if so did the operation fail to achieve its goal, resulting in the prompt denial that anything happened, even though it was Iran who originally reported that seven tankers were involved in the explosions?

Could this be the start of a Gulf of Tonkin type incident in the Persian Gulf which drags the US and its allies into confrontation with Iran? 

END

Michael Snyder lays out the scenario correctly with respect to Iran.  These guys are hurt badly as sanctions are killing them. There is a scarcity of dollars inside Iran which are needed to buy staples. Meanwhile Iranians are ready to attack ships crossing through the Gulf.  This is an act of war something that the world does not need right now

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

World War 3? Top Iranian Official Taunts: US “Not Ready For A War, Specially When Israel Is Within Our Range”

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

The Iranians are openly threatening to start firing missiles at Israel if Trump decides to attack Iran.  And this threat should not be taken lightly, because Iran has a highly sophisticated ballistic missile arsenal, and Hezbollah has approximately 150,000 missiles pointed directly at Israel right now.

If the order is given, the Iranians and their proxy Hezbollah could rain an enormous amount of death and destruction down upon Israel, and of course Israel would hit them back even harder.  We are talking about a scenario that could potentially trigger World War 3, and the Iranians apparently believe that the possibility of such an outcome will keep Trump from taking military action against them.  The following comes from the Times of Israel

A senior Iranian official on Sunday dismissed the US military buildup in the region as psychological warfare, saying that the US will not attack for fear of provoking an Iranian assault on Israel.

“The US military forces’ deployment in the Persian Gulf is more of the nature of psychological warfare. They are not ready for a war, specially when Israel is within our range,” Iranian Parliament’s Vice-Speaker Ali Motahhari said on Sunday, according to the FARS news agency.

In addition to its own missiles, Iranian proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip have hundreds of thousands of rockets aimed at Israel.

Perhaps the Iranians are correct and the U.S. has no intention of starting a war.  But we have already seen that the Trump administration has not been afraid to engage in a campaign of “maximum pressure” that has pushed us to the brink of military conflict.  In recent days the Trump administration has decided that they will not allow Iran to sell oil to anybody at all, and the crushing sanctions that were imposed on Iran last year have been absolutely devastating for the Iranian economy…

The sweeping unilateral sanctions that Washington re-imposed when it quit the agreement a year ago have dealt a severe blow to the Iranian economy, pushing the value of its currency to record lows, driving away foreign investors and triggering protests.

And for good reason: the plunging value of the rial has affected the prices of imported staples as well as locally produced goods. According to the Statistical Center of Iran, the cost of red meat and poultry has increased by 57% over the past 12 months; milk, cheese and eggs by 37%; and vegetables by 47%.

The Iranians are growing deeply frustrated, and they appear to be convinced that an alliance headed up by the U.S., Israel and Saudi Arabia would love to see regime change in Iran.

For example, just consider these recent remarks from Iran’s foreign minister

And as Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said, Tehran is convinced that what he calls “the B Team”—Bolton, Bibi, bin Salman, and bin Zayed, the last three being Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Mohammed bin Zayed, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi and effective ruler of the United Arab Emirates—are determined to force regime change in Iran. “President Trump says that the pressure will bring Iran to its knees,” said Zarif.

“The other day, Secretary Pompeo was asked if he was planning a coup d’état in Iran. And you know what he said? Any diplomat, even if they’re planning a coup, would deny it! But he said, if I were planning a coup, I wouldn’t tell you. Sometimes people say what’s in the back of their mind,” Zarif added. (The exact quote, according to Axios, came in a speech by Pompeo to an Iranian-American group, in which he said, “Even if we [were], would I be telling you guys about it?”)

And Zarif is probably correct on this point.  If the U.S, Israel and Saudi Arabia could snap their fingers and establish a completely new government in Iran, they would almost certainly do it.

But all attempts to encourage an internal revolution have fizzled, and a full-blown war would seem to be unthinkable.

The Iranians have made their military a core priority in recent years, and they have developed weapons systems of immense destructive power.  At one time they would have been intimidated by a U.S. carrier group being moved into the Persian Gulf, but those days are long gone.  The following comes from Reuters

“An aircraft carrier that has at least 40 to 50 planes on it and 6,000 forces gathered within it was a serious threat for us in the past but now it is a target and the threats have switched to opportunities,” said Amirali Hajizadeh, head of the Guards’ aerospace division.

“If (the Americans) make a move, we will hit them in the head,” he added, according to ISNA.

And on Friday, Ayatollah Yousef Tabatabai Nejad boldly declared that our ““billion-dollar fleet can be destroyed with one missile”

The ISNA news agency quoted hardliner Ayatollah Tabatabai-Nejad in the city of Isfahan as saying: “Their billion-dollar fleet can be destroyed with one missile.

“If they attempt any move, they will face dozens of missiles because at that time government officials won’t be in charge to act cautiously, but instead things will be in the hands of our beloved leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.”

Of course Nejad is exaggerating, but the truth is that our fleet will definitely be sitting ducks in the Persian Gulf.  If the Iranians wanted to do so, they could definitely take the entire fleet out.

We are so close to war, and let’s hope that nobody starts getting itchy trigger fingers.

Iran is run by a bunch of nutjobs that believe that war with the U.S. and Israel is inevitable.  Meanwhile, war hawks John Bolton and Mike Pompeo are the top foreign policy officials in the Trump administration and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has already shown us what he is capable of doing.

We need someone to step forward and be a voice of reason before we plunge into a nightmarish apocalyptic conflict that we will not be able to escape, and that voice of reason may have to be President Trump himself.

In the end, it will be Trump that makes the final call on any war with Iran, and that decision will have enormous implications for all of us.

END

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

VENEZUELA

 

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1235 UP .0006 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.65 DOWN 0.248 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3023   UP   0.0025  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3436 UP .0032 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 9 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  RISING to 1.1235 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 35.50 POINTS OR 1.21% 

 

 

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED HOLIDAY 

 

 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .19%// EUROPEAN BOURSES RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 153.64 POINTS OR 0.72% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 35.50 POINTS OR 1.21% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .19% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 153.64  POINTS OR 0.72%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1283.65

silver:$14.65

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.43% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.86 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 97.28 DOWN 5 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  MONDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.16%  UP 4 in basis point(s) yield from FRIDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.05%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.99% UP 1   IN basis point yield from FRIDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.70 UP 2  POINTS in basis point yield from FRIDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 171 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS –.07%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.77% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1233  UP     .0005 or 5 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.18 DOWN .725 OR YEN UP 73  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2959 DOWN .0027 POUND DOWN 27  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 64 basis points to 1.3467

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8784    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9123  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.0903 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.05%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 2.39 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.84 DOWN 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.28  DOWN 5  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 39.61  0.55%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 183.18 POINTS OR 1.52%

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 64,87 POINTS OR 1.22%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 70.70 POINTS or 0.78%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 330.17 POINTS OR 1.45%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 61.62 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 70.40 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.45  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.23 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 23 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.07 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  60.86

 

 

BRENT :  69.92

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.40…   VERY DEADLY//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.84..VERY DEADLY

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1229 ( UP 7   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.32 DOWN 583 (YEN UP 58 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.34 UP 1 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.2959 DOWN 28  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.0564

 

the Russian rouble 65.42   DOWN 0.19 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 19 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3475 DOWN 71 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8784  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly.

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9122 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly.

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.07%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN 617.98 POINTS OR 2.38%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN  269.92 POINTS OR 3.41%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  20.55 CLOSED UP 4.51

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.527%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.535

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Bitcoin, Bonds, & Bullion Bid As Trade Turmoil Trounces Stocks

With MSCI World down another 2% today, adding to the losses from last week, trade turmoil has wiped around $3.5 trillion in  market cap (down $1 trillion today) from global stocks. Not a fleshwound…

..

China’s Friday afternoon panic-bid from The National Team gave way

China’s Friday afternoon panic-bid from The National Team gave way

overnight:

 

Europe was also ugly, led by Germany, as Trump’s auto-tariff deadline looms…

 

US equities were ugly as China retaliation struck (what a shock)…erasing all the post “constructive”  bounce and then some

On the cash side, The Dow dropped over 700 at its worse but some jawboning from Mnuchin and Trump lifted stocks off their lows…

All major US equity indices are back below key technical levels.

 

S&P ETF (SPY) has seen outflows every day this month (on pace for its worst month of outflows since March 2018 in the middle of ‘volmageddon’)…

 

Uber

 

Humor?

zerohedge@zerohedge

Some Goldman Clients to Get Uber Stock at 40% Discount: WSJ

Or they can just wait 2 days and buy it there in the open market

201 people are talking about this

FANG stocks were smashed lower today…

 

As was AAPL…

Biotechs (with Mylan and Teva crushed on price collusion allegations)

 

VIX and Credit spreads blew out wider today…

 

Treasury yields tumbled on the day…

 

Yield curve inverted

 

Big round trip in the dollar…

 

Cryptos continued to soar since Friday’s close…

 

With Bitcoin nearing $8000 as Yuan plunged…

 

Gold spiked above $1300 today…

 

Oil prices initially popped on Iran tensions but faded as trade worries weighed…

 

Hogs were limit down to 8-week lows…

 

Finally, all this happened as expectations for 2019 action by the Fed plunged to 41bps of rate-cuts!!

Market trading: Today  //Early morning

The markets are no to happy with respect to the non USA/China deal:

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

S&P Futures Tumble As Trade War Shows No Sign Of De-escalation

Following a weekend of escalating trade war bickering between the US and China, which showed no signs of any imminent de-escalation and contrary to Mnuchin’s “constructive” assessment on Friday, hinted at what appears to be a lengthy trade war of attrition, S&P futures tumbled at the open of electronic trade on Sunday night, sliding as much as 1.1% before settling down around -0.9%, following the worst seek for stocks in 2019.

The ominous start to the new week of trading followed last week’s 2.2% drop in U.S. stocks which was biggest drop to date in the best start for bulls in over three decades. Still, putting the “plunge” in context, what was until the start of May an 18% gain in the S&P has shrunk to “only” 15% with the index just over 3%, or 65 points below its April 30 all time high of 2,945.83. As Bloomberg notes, tech stocks bore the brunt, with the Nasdaq 100 Index falling 3.3% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index losing 5.9%.

Quoted by Bloomberg, Miller Tabak strategist Matt Maley said that “five to seven percent pull-backs are normal in any rally, but they become almost inevitable when ‘new and negative news’ is introduced to a market that is over-bought and whose valuations have become extended.” He added that “investors should stop worrying about if the market will fall due to the trade war issue and figure out the (lower) levels at which they want buy more of their favorite names.”

As we reported earlier, in the latest weekend developments, White House top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said higher tariffs assessed on Chinese goods would have minimal impact on U.S. jobs and growth, while admitting that “both sides will suffer” from the trade war. He also said that China has invited U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin back to Beijing, though no date has been set for new talks, and the most likely date for the next meeting between Trump and Xi would be the G-20 meeting in late June.

At roughly the same time, China’s People’s Daily the U.S. should take full responsibility for trade-talk setbacks because it raised tariffs on China’s products, state television reported. China sought a mutually beneficial agreement but the U.S. went back on its word, state broadcaster CCTV reported on Sunday, citing a commentary that the paper will publish on Monday.

In short, it hardly looks like the trade war talks are “constructive”. Quite the contrary in fact, as Mish Shedlock recently recapped:

  1. Trump demands China put commitments into law.
  2. China replied that “no one should expect China to swallow bitter fruit that harms its core interests”.
  3. Trump ordered Lighthizer to begin the process of imposing tariffs on all remaining imports from China This would impact an additional $300 billion worth of goods.
  4. China said it would retaliate.
  5. On Saturday, Trump warned China not to retaliate or it would face worse terms. Trump Tweeted “Love collecting BIG TARIFFS!”
  6. Kudlow said on Sunday he expected retaliatory tariffs to kick in but that it had not happened yet.
  7. China warned Trump on Sunday not to underestimate China’s endurance and that China is not afraid to fight.
  8. China posted its own set of demands for further talks including the removal of all extra tariffs.

 

end

Markets begin to tumble as china does not listen to Trump and retaliates with their own tariffs.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Markets Tumble As China Unveils Retaliatory Tariffs, May Dump “Some Treasuries”

After vowing over the weekend to “never surrender to external pressure”, Beijing has defied President Trump’s demands that it not resort to retaliatory tariffs and announced plans to slap new levies on $60 billion in US goods.

  • CHINA SAYS TO RAISE TARIFFS ON SOME U.S. GOODS FROM JUNE 1
  • CHINA SAYS TO RAISE TARIFFS ON $60B OF U.S. GOODS
  • CHINA SAYS TO RAISE TARIFFS ON 2493 U.S. GOODS TO 25%
  • CHINA MAY STOP PURCHASING US AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS:GLOBAL TIMES
  • CHINA MAY REDUCE BOEING ORDERS: GLOBAL TIMES
  • CHINA ADDITIONAL TARIFFS DO NOT INCLUDE U.S. CRUDE OIL
  • CHINA RAISES TARIFF ON U.S. LNG TO 25% EFFECTIVE JUNE 1

China’s announcement comes after the White House raised tariffs on some $200 billion in Chinese goods to 25% from 10% on Friday (however, the new rates will only apply to goods leaving Chinese ports on or after the date where the new tariffs took effect).

Here’s a breakdown of how China will impose tariffs on 2,493 US goods. The new rates will take effect at the beginning of next month.

  • 2,493 items to be subjected to 25% tariffs.
  • 1,078 items to be subject to 20% of tariffs
  • 974 items subject to 10% of tariffs
  • 595 items continue to be levied at 5% tariffs

In further bad news for American farmers, China might stop purchasing agricultural products from the US, reduce its orders for Boeing planes and restrict service trade. There has also been talk that the PBOC could start dumping Treasurys (which would, in addition to pushing US rates higher, could also have the effect of strengthening the yuan). Though if China is going to dump Treasuries, will they also be dumping US stocks and real estate?

Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT

China may stop purchasing US agricultural products and energy, reduce Boeing orders and restrict US service trade with China. Many Chinese scholars are discussing the possibility of dumping US Treasuries and how to do it specifically.

Stocks have now erased the entirety of the “constructive talks” ramp from Friday afternoon.

Three

Four

The yuan, which has been incredibly sensitive to trade-deal news, also crashed on the news.

Yuan

Gold caught a bid on the trade war escalation.

Gold

Reacting to China’s threat to dump some Treasuries, 30-year yields headed higher.

Treasurys

And just like that, with no new deal talks planned and the US preparing to unveil its own next steps to impose 25% tariffs on all Chinese goods entering the American market later in the day, it appears the year-long trade war between the US and China is finally about to go nuclear.

At least that’s how it’s looking right now: We imagine it’s only a matter of time before the US announces the timing of the next round of talks, prompting algos to send the market 500 points higher in a frenzy of buying.

end
Late morning

Dow Dumps Over 550 Points, Breaks Below Critical Technical Support

For the first time since February, the Dow is back below its 200-day moving average…

 

As another dead cat dies…

 

 

END

THIS AFTERNOON:

Dow Blows Through Key Levels, Down 700 As Yield Curve Re-Inverts

“This is starting to get serious” one veteran trader calmly stated to us this morning and with The Dow now down over 700 points and the yield curve re-inverting, someone better start paging Larry Kudlow to save the world…

Crashing through its 50-, 100-, and 200-DMA…

So much for “constructive” talks…

As the yield curve inverts…

Remember this is the spread that The Fed said was the best indicator of recession.

 

 

 

 

ii)Market data/

 

END

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

USA/China

Trump warnings Beijing not to retaliate with more tariffs.  If they do, they will be hurt very badly

(courtesy zero hedge)

Trump: Beijing “Will Be Hurt Very Badly” If They Retaliate With More Tariffs

As Washington and the investing public wait to learn more about Beijing’s plans for retaliation following the latest round of trade-war escalation, Trump tweeted on Monday that Beijing would retaliate at its own risk: If it follows through with another round of retaliatory tariffs, Trump warned, there would “nobody left in China to do business with.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Their is no reason for the U.S. Consumer to pay the Tariffs, which take effect on China today. This has been proven recently when only 4 points were paid by the U.S., 21 points by China because China subsidizes product to such a large degree. Also, the Tariffs can be…..

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….completely avoided if you by from a non-Tariffed Country, or you buy the product inside the USA (the best idea). That’s Zero Tariffs. Many Tariffed companies will be leaving China for Vietnam and other such countries in Asia. That’s why China wants to make a deal so badly!…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

..There will be nobody left in China to do business with. Very bad for China, very good for USA! But China has taken so advantage of the U.S. for so many years, that they are way ahead (Our Presidents did not do the job). Therefore, China should not retaliate-will only get worse!

If the situation isn’t resolved, “China will be hurt very badly” because President Xi decided to back out of his “great deal.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I say openly to President Xi & all of my many friends in China that China will be hurt very badly if you don’t make a deal because companies will be forced to leave China for other countries. Too expensive to buy in China. You had a great deal, almost completed, & you backed out!

Since Liu He left Washington on Friday without a deal, or even a plan for the next round of talks, political analysts over the weekend have focused on what form retaliation from Beijing might take.

China

Beijing’s options are limited by the fact that it simply doesn’t have as many imports to tax, which has led to vague threats like this one, tweeted by Global Times editor Hu Xijin, saying only that Beijing’s plan will have “precise effects,” harming the US while “minimizing damage” to the Chinese economy.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT

China hasn’t released countermeasures immediately. I believe the reason is that China is drafting a plan that will have precise effects, making sure it hits the US while minimizing damage to itself.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The unexpectedly good first quarter 3.2% GDP was greatly helped by Tariffs from China. Some people just don’t get it!

The Global Times published a piece over the weekend calling on Beijing to “direct precision strikes at vital links in the US economy to inflict systemic damage to bring the latter back to the negotiating table.”

One former Chinese commerce official quoted in the GT story said Beijing’s countermeasures should show that “China is not only resilient against the higher tariff but is capable of hitting back.” This might help the US “abandon its misconceptions,” he said.

Over the weekend, state TV contended that the fallout from the trade war would be “totally controllable” and that “China will never surrender to external pressure,” Reuters said.

Another analyst from the World Economics and Politics with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that most of the costs from higher tariffs imposed by the Trump administration would be borne by US consumers.

Gao Lingwen, a senior research fellow at the Institute of World Economics and Politics with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, (CASS) said most of the extra costs brought about by the Trump administration’s heightened tariffs will be borne by US consumers.

“Chinese exporters have had to shoulder about 10 percent of the tariff burden imposed by the Trump administration so far. The remaining 90 percent is eventually passed on to US retailers and consumers,” Gao said at the same seminar.

Instead of focusing on broad-based tariffs, Gao said Beijing could focus its tariffs to pummel carefully selected industries (though none were named in the piece).

One key source of the confidence some in the US feel about the ease of winning a trade war is the sound performance of the US economy so far. However, Gao said that as the tariff pain is gradually passed on to US products and consumers, such confidence will come to an end.

“China does not need to match the Trump administration’s tariff war in terms of scale and tariff percentages. Instead, China could shift its focus from hitting Trump’s voter base to pummel a carefully selected industrial chain linkage point that could cause systemic risks to the US economy,” Gao said.

Following Friday’s meetings, Liu outlined three demands on the Chinese side: The removal of all trade-war tariffs, set targets for Chinese purchases that are in line with genuine demand, and ensure that the text of the deal is “balanced.”

Washington has already started the process of raising tariffs on all remaining Chinese goods. With all Chinese goods soon expected to face 25% tariffs, most expect this could have a serious impact on China’s economy.

Still, President Trump has assured the public that the US is “right where we want to be” on China.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

We are right where we want to be with China. Remember, they broke the deal with us & tried to renegotiate. We will be taking in Tens of Billions of Dollars in Tariffs from China. Buyers of product can make it themselves in the USA (ideal), or buy it from non-Tariffed countries…

Given the strength of the market’s YTD rally and the GDP numbers from the first quarter, Trump might have a point: even the GT conceded that making a deal would be in China’s best interest.

Rabobank

Many experts have insisted that China can take the pain from a trade deal longer than Trump, largely by virtue of its authoritarian system. But is it possible that Trump was on to something when he warned that there would be “nobody left in China to do business with” if Beijing doesn’t find a way to end the trade war?

end

SWAMP STORIES

In this report we learn that IG Horowitz determined that 3 of the FISA extensions were illegally obtained according to Joe DiGenova.  We are now waiting for Horowitz’s report which should come later this month or in June. In this commentary note how the DNC tried to frame PapaD.

(courtesy Heine/Joe DiGenova)

IG Horowitz Has ‘Concluded that the Final Three FISA Extensions Were Illegally Obtained,’ diGenova Says

BY DEBRA HEINE MAY 10, 2019

Washington attorney Joe diGenova claimed in an interview last night that the Department of Justice inspector general has determined that “the final three FISA extensions were illegally obtained,” and the first one is still being investigated.

For the past year, DOJ IG Michael Horowitz has been investigating the FBI’s 2016 surveillance activities and his report is expected later this month or in early June.

Washington power couple Joe diGenova and Victoria Toensing appeared on Lou Dobbs’ Fox Business Network show Thursday night to talk about the latest turns in the “SpyGate” saga.

“The only question now is whether or not the first FISA was illegally obtained,” diGenova said.

He told Dobbs that the latest revelations in investigative reporter John Solomon’s piece at The Hill, have prompted further investigation from Horowitz’s team.

On Thursday, Solomon reported that newly unearthed memos show that a high-ranking government official from the Obama State Department met with former British spy Christopher Steele in October of 2016, and figured out pretty quickly that his dossier was a political hit job intended to slime Donald Trump on behalf of Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

The written account of Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Kathleen Kavalec’s Oct. 11, 2016, meeting with Steele also shows that Steele admitted that his research was “political and facing an Election Day deadline,” according to Solomon.

DiGenova said the inspector general was unaware of the memos, which were obtained last week through open-records litigation by the conservative group Citizens United.

“The Bureau hid those memos from Horowitz. As a result of that, they are doing some additional work on the first FISA,” diGenova explained, adding: “It may be that all four FISAs will have been obtained illegally.”

DiGenova and Toensing shared another explosive revelation on Sebastian Gorka’s Salem Radio talk show “America First” on Thursday.

According to Toensing, the FBI tried to frame former Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos by having an informant give him $10,000 in cash during a trip to Israel in the summer of 2017.

An individual allegedly talked the then-29-year-old into traveling to Israel to make a deal, and invited him to his hotel room.

“And there on the bed is $10,000 in cash in a suitcase,” she continued. Papadopoulos took the money and gave it to his lawyer, who has it still.

Toensing said when Papadopoulos returned to the United States, he was greeted by FBI agents at Dulles Airport and they started searching through everything that he had “the second he landed.”

She added, “in fact, they already had his baggage from the plane. He couldn’t believe they had his baggage.”

“It was a set up!” exclaimed Gorka.

“It was a complete set up,” agreed Toensing.

DiGenova explained that the Feds already knew that he hadn’t declared that he had $10,000 and were expecting to find the undeclared cash so they could arrest him and “put the thumbscrews on and make him squeal,” as Gorka put it.

Worst of all, according to Toensing, “one of the FBI agents said to him, ‘this is what happens when you work for Donald Trump.’”

end

A scathing attack on John Brennan

(courtesy Mike Whitney/UNZ Review)

Whitney: Judgment Day Looms For John Brennan

Authored by Mike Whitney via The Unz Review,

Sometime in the next 4 weeks, the Justice Department’s inspector general will release an internal review that will reveal the origins of the Trump-Russia investigation. Among other matters, the IG’s report is expected to determine “whether there was sufficient justification under existing guidelines for the FBI to have started an investigation in the first place.” Critics of the Trump-collusion probe believe that there was never probable cause that a crime had been committed, therefore, there was no legal basis for launching the investigation.

The findings of the Mueller report– that there was no cooperation or collusion between the Kremlin and the Trump campaign– seem to underscore this broader point and suggest that the fictitious Trump-Russia connection was merely a pretext for spying on the campaign of a Beltway outsider whose political views clashed with those of the foreign policy establishment.

In any event, the upcoming release of the Horowitz report will formally end the the first phase of the long-running Russiagate scandal and mark the beginning of Phase 2, in which high-profile officials from the previous administration face criminal prosecution for their role in what looks to be a botched attempt at a coup d’etat.

Here’s a brief summary from political analyst, Larry C. Johnson, who previously worked at the CIA and U.S. State Department:

The evidence is plain–there was a broad, coordinated effort by the Obama Administration, with the help of foreign governments, to target Donald Trump and paint him as a stooge of Russia. The Mueller Report provides irrefutable evidence that the so-called Russian collusion case against Donald Trump was a deliberate fabrication by intelligence and law enforcement organizations in the US and UK and organizations aligned with the Clinton Campaign.” (“How US and Foreign Intel Agencies Interfered in a US Election”, Larry C. Johnson, Consortium News)

Bingo. Attorney General William Barr has already stated his belief that spying on the Trump campaign “did occur” and that, in his mind, it is “a big deal”. He also reiterated his commitment to thoroughly investigate the matter in order to find out whether the spying was adequately “predicated”, that is, whether the FBI followed the required protocols for such spying, or not. Barr already knows the answer to this question as he is fully aware of the fact that the FBI used information that they knew was false to obtain warrants to spy on the Trump campaign. Having no hard evidence of cooperation with the Kremlin, senior-level FBI officials and their counterparts at the Obama Justice Department used parts of an “opposition research” document (The Trump Dossier) that they knew was unreliable to procure warrants that allowed them to treat a presidential campaign the same way the intelligence agencies treat foreign enemies; using electronic surveillance, wiretapping, confidential informants and “honey trap” schemes designed to gather embarrassing or incriminating information on their target. Barr knows all of this already which is why the Democrats are doing everything in their power to discredit him and have him removed from office.

His determination to “get to the bottom of this” is not just a threat to the FBI, it’s a threat to multiple agencies that may have had a hand in this expansive domestic espionage operation including the CIA, the NSA, the DOJ, the State Department and, perhaps, even the Obama White House. No one knows yet how far up the political food-chain the skulduggery actually goes, but Barr appears to be serious about finding out.

Here’s Barr again:

“Many people seem to assume that the only intelligence collection that occurred was a single confidential informant….I would like to find out whether that is in fact true. It strikes me as a fairly anemic effort if that was the counterintelligence effort designed to stop the threat as it’s being represented.”

In other words, Barr knows that the Trump campaign was riddled with spies and he is going to do his damnedest to find out what happened. He also knows that the FISA warrants were improperly obtained using the shabby disinformation from an opposition research “hit piece” (The Steele Dossier) that was paid for by Hillary Clinton and the DNC, just like he knows that government agents had concocted a strategy for leaking classified information to the media to fuel the public hysteria. Barr knows most of what happened already. It’s just a matter of compiling the research in the proper format and delivering it in a way that helps to emphasize how trusted government agents abused their power by pursuing a vicious partisan plot to either destroy the president’s reputation or force him from office. Like Barr said, that’s a “big deal”.

The name that seems to feature larger than all others in the ongoing Trump-Russia saga, is James Comey, the former FBI Director who oversaw the spying operations that are now under investigation at the DOJ. But was Comey really the central figure in these felonious hi-jinks or was he a mere lieutenant following directives from someone more powerful than himself? While the preponderance of new evidence suggests that the FBI was deeply involved, it does not answer this crucial question. For example, just this week, a report by veteran journalist John Solomon, showed that former British spy Christopher Steele admitted to Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Kathleen Kavalec that his “Trump Dossier” was “political research”, implying that the contents couldn’t be trusted because they were shaped by Steele’s political bias. Kavalec passed along this information to the FBI which shrugged it off and then, just days later, used the dossier to obtain warrants to spy on members of the Trump campaign. Think about that for a minute. The FBI had “written proof …. that Steele had a political motive”, but went ahead and used the dossier to procure the warrants anyway. That’s what I’d call a premeditated felony.

But evidence of wrongdoing is not proof that Comey was the ringleader, he was just the hapless sad sack who was left holding the bag.The truth is, Comey was just a reluctant follower. The real architect of the Trump-Russia treachery was the boss-man at the nation’s premier intelligence agency, the CIA. That’s where the headwaters of this shameful burlesque are located, in Langley. More on that in a minute, but first check out this excerpt from an article at The Hill which sums up Comey’s role fairly well:

(There) “will be an examination of whether Comey was unduly influenced by political agendas emanating from the previous White House and its director of national intelligence, CIA director and attorney general. This, above all, is what’s causing the 360-degree head spin.

”There are early indicators that troubling behaviors may have occurred in all three scenarios. Barr will want to zero in on a particular area of concern: the use by the FBI of confidential human sources, whether its own or those offered up by the then-CIA director. …

In addition, the cast of characters leveraged by the FBI against the Trump campaign all appear to have their genesis as CIA sources (“assets,” in agency vernacular) shared at times with the FBI. From Stefan Halper and possibly Joseph Mifsud, to Christopher Steele, to Carter Page himself, and now a mysterious “government investigator” posing as Halper’s assistant and cited in The New York Times article, legitimate questions arise as to whether Comey was manipulated into furthering a CIA political operation more than an FBI counterintelligence case.” (“James Comey is in trouble and he knows it”, The Hill)

Why is the Inspector General so curious as to whether Comey “was unduly influenced by political agendas emanating from the previous White House and its director of national intelligence, CIA director? And why did Comey draw from “a cast of characters “…. that “all appear to have their genesis as CIA sources”??

Could it be that Comey was just an unwitting pawn in a domestic regime change operation launched by former CIA Director John Brennan, the one public figure who has expressed greater personal animus towards Trump than all the others combined? Could Trump’s promise to normalize relations with Russia have intensified Brennan’s visceral hatred of him given the fact that Russia had frustrated Brennan’s strategic plans in Ukraine and Syria? Keep in mind, the CIA had been arming, training and providing logistical support to the Sunni militants who were trying to overthrow Syrian president Bashar al Assad. Putin’s intervention crushed the jihadist militias delivering a humiliating defeat to Generalissimo Brennan who, soon after, left office in disgrace. Isn’t this at least part of the reason why Brennan hates Trump?

Regular readers of this column know that I have always thought that Brennan was the central figure in the Trump-Russia charade. It was Brennan who first referred the case to Comey, just as it was Brennan who “hand-picked” the analysts who stitched together the dodgy Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) (which said that “Putin and the Russian government aspired to help…Trump’s election chances.”) It was also Brennan who persuaded Harry Reid to petition Comey to open an investigation in the first place. Brennan was chief instigator of the Trump-Russia fiasco, the omniscient puppet-master who persuaded Clapper and Comey to do his bidding while still-unidentified agents strategically leaked stories to the media to inflame passions and sow social unrest. At every turn, Brennan was there guiding the perfidious project along. According to journalist Philip Giraldi, the CIA may have even assisted in the obtaining of FISA warrants on Trump campaign aids as this excerpt from an article at The Unz Review indicates:

“Brennan was the key to the operation because the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) court refused to approve several requests by the FBI to initiate taps on Trump associates and Trump Tower as there was no probable cause to do so but the British and other European intelligence services were legally able to intercept communications linked to American sources. Brennan was able to use his connections with those foreign intelligence agencies, primarily the British GCHQ, to make it look like the concerns about Trump were coming from friendly and allied countries and therefore had to be responded to as part of routine intelligence sharing. As a result, Paul Manafort, Carter Page, Donald Trump Jr., Jared Kushner and Gen. Michael Flynn were all wiretapped. And likely there were others. This all happened during the primaries and after Trump became the GOP nominee.” (“The Conspiracy Against Trump”, Philip Giraldi)

Can you see how important this is? The FBI was having trouble getting warrants to spy on the Trump campaign, so Brennan helped them out by persuading his foreign intelligence allies (the British and other European intelligence services) to come up with bogus “intercepted communications linked to American sources,” which helped to secure the FISA warrants. We have no idea of what these foreign agents heard on these alleged intercepted communications, all we know is that they were effectively used to achieve Brennan’s ultimate objective, which was to acquire the means of taking down Trump via a relentless and expansive surveillance campaign.

According to a report in The Guardian (where the story first appeared.):

“GCHQ (British Government Communications Headquarters) played an early, prominent role in kickstarting the FBI’s Trump-Russia investigation, which began in late July 2016. One source called the British eavesdropping agency the “principal whistleblower”. (“British spies were first to spot Trump team’s links with Russia “, The Guardian)

Okay, so Brennan twisted a few arms and got his foreign Intel buddies to make uncorroborated claims that got the investigative ball rolling, but then what? If there was any meat to Brennan’s foreign intel, then Mueller would have dug it up and used it in his report, right? But he didn’t. Why?

Because there was nothing there, the whole thing was a sham from the get go. Brennan probably “sexed up” the intelligence so it would sound like something it really wasn’t. (Think: WMD) Again, if there was even a scintilla of hard evidence that Trump’s campaign assistants were in bed with Russia, Mueller would have shrieked it from every mountaintop across America. But he didn’t, because there wasn’t any. There was no cooperation, no conspiracy and no collusion. Trump was falsely accused. End of story.

Here’s more from the same article:

“The Guardian has been told the FBI and the CIA were slow to appreciate the extensive nature of contacts between Trump’s team and Moscow ahead of the US election.” (Guardian)

“The extensive nature of contacts between Trump’s team and Moscow”???

Really? This is precisely the type of hyperventilating journalism that fueled the absurd conspiracy theory that the president of the United States was a Russian agent. It’s hard to believe that we’re even discussing the matter at this point.

There was an interesting aside in John Solomon’s article that suggests that he might be thinking along the same lines. He says: “One legal justification cited for redacting the Oct. 13, 2016, email is the National Security Act of 1947, which can be used to shield communications involving the CIA or the White House National Security Council.”

Why would Solomon draw attention to “to shielding communications involving the CIA or the White House”, after all, the bulk of his article focused on the State Department and the FBI? Is he suggesting that the CIA and Obama White House may have been involved in these spying shenanigans, is that why Kavalec’s damning notes (which stated that Steele’s dossier could not be trusted.) have been retroactively classified?

Take a look at this email from the FBI’s chief investigator in the Russia collusion probe, Peter Strzok, to his fellow agents in April 2017.

“I’m beginning to think the agency (CIA) got info a lot earlier than we thought and hasn’t shared it completely with us. Might explain all those weird/seemingly incorrect leads all these media folks have. Would also highlight agency as source of some leaks.” -Peter Strzok.

Ha! So even the FBI’s chief investigator was in the dark about the CIA’s shadowy machinations behind the scenes. Clearly, Brennan wanted to prevent the other junta leaders from fully knowing what he was up to.

All of this is bound to come out in the inspector general’s report sometime in the next month or so. Both Attorney General William Barr and IG Horowitz appear to be fully committed to revealing the criminal leaks, the illegal electronic surveillance, the improperly obtained FISA warrants, and the multiple confidential human sources (spies) that were placed in the Trump campaign. They are going to face withering criticism for their efforts, but they are resolutely moving forward all the same. Bravo, for that.

Bottom lineThe agents and officials who conducted this seditious attack on the presidency never thought they’d be held accountable for their crimes. But they were wrong, and now their day of reckoning is fast approaching. The main players in this palace coup are about to be exposed, criminally charged and prosecuted. Some of them will probably wind up in jail.

“The wheels of justice turn slowly, but grind exceedingly fine.”

end

Top lawyer for the FBI is nervous on what IG Horowitz will report.  James Baker should be nervous.  Nunes is demanding all papers related to the genesis of the whole thing; Mifsud.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Top Lawyer For Obama-Era FBI ‘Nervous’ About DOJ Inspector General Investigation

 

James Baker, a career government attorney who wound up as the the FBI’s top lawyer (general counsel) in 2014, says he’s ‘nervous‘ about DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s internal investigation into FBI/DOJ conduct surrounding the 2016 US election.

Sitting down at the Brookings Institute with Lawfare’s Benjamin Wittes, Baker made clear that he wanted to speak “as openly as I possibly can” about the origin of the FBI’s investigation into Donald Trump – “to reassure the American people that it was done for lawful, legitimate reasons, and was apolitical,” reports the Washington Examiner‘s Jerry Dunleavy.

 

Benjamin Wittes (left), James Baker

For those keeping track, we’ve gone from “there was no spying,” to “the FBI used an informant on the Trump campaign, just don’t call him a spy,” to “ok there were multiple informants – still not spying.”

And so while Obama-era officials have scrambled to perform damage control ahead of negative potential outcomes, Attorney General William Barr, James Clapper, and the CIA’s former chief of counterintelligence (among others) have concluded that the Obama admin absolutely spied on Donald Trump and his campaign.

Embedded video

Saagar Enjeti

@esaagar

NEW: AG Barr tells Congress “I think spying did occur, yes. I think spying did occur” on the Trump campaign. He adds “The question was whether it was adequately predicated. And I’m not suggesting it wasn’t predicated. I need to explore that”

Barr, meanwhile, has launched a wide-ranging investigation into FBI conduct during the 2016 election, making him public enemy #1 to the left. Consequently, Democrats are now working overtime to discredit him less than three months after he ‘sailed through‘ his confirmation hearings (on the Kavanaugh scale) due to his distinguished career in Washington. Barr currently sits in contempt of the House Judiciary Committee after refusing to turn over an unredacted version of the Mueller report – despite the fact that not one Democrat has viewed the 98.5% redacted version the DOJ made available to members of Congress. 

After Barr’s “spying” bombshell, former FBI Director James Comey said he had “no idea what the heck he’s (Barr) talking about,” while last week Comey said he thinks Barr has acted “less than honorable,” and has “lost most of his reputation.

Embedded video

CNN Politics

@CNNPolitics

James Comey believes Attorney General William Barr acted “less than honorable” in the way he previewed the Mueller report with his summary, press conference, and still “continues to talk as if he is the President’s lawyer” https://cnn.it/2Vtadui

And in in what appears to be the latest in an attempt to get ahead of the narrative, James Baker – the Obama/Comey FBI’s top lawyer, sat down with Benjamin Wittes at Brookings to defend the agency’s conduct.

And Baker is nervous

Asked by Wittes “So, how nervous are you about the IG”? in reference to Inspector General Horowitz’s FISA investigation, Baker responded that he’s “always nervous about the IG,” and that “they’re coming in after the fact to look at what we did.

Baker added that during the chaotic 2016 election, the FBI was “trying to do it in real time and having the pressure to deal with these threats as they were coming,” while dealing with the backdrop of alleged Russian hacking of Democratic emails.

He also stuck with the official story as to what predicated the FBI’s counterintelligence operation on the Trump campaign, dubbed “Crossfire Hurricane” — On May 10, 2016 Trump adviser George Papadopoulos told Clinton ally and Australian diplomat, Alexander Downer, that Russia had ‘dirt’ on Hillary Clinton. Downer told Aussie intel, which told the FBI, which launched Operation Crossfire Hurricane.

Nowhere did Baker mention Joseph Mifsud, a Maltese professor and self-professed member of the Clinton Foundation who is the genesis of the Russian ‘dirt’ rumor – planted it with Papadopoulos several weeks after returning from a trip to Moscow.

While the Mueller report paints Mifsud as a Russian agent, evidence points to him being in league with Western intelligence – which raises the notion of entrapment if Papadopoulos was set up by a Clinton ally, later to be pumped for information by a ‘five-eyes’ Clinton ally at a London Bar, which officially launched the investigation.

Last week, Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) has requested a wide swath of documents about Mifsud from several federal agencies. As the Washington Examiner noted, Nunes – the House Intelligence Committee ranking member, “seeks information about who Mifsud was working for at the time and wrote in a letter that special counsel Robert Mueller “omits any mention of a wide range of contacts Mifsud had with Western political institutions and individuals” in his report on Russian interference in the 2016 election.”

No wonder Baker is feeling a bit on edge.

When asked about how confident he is that the FBI opened the Trump investigation for legitimate reasons and not a ‘coup,’ Baker maintained that everything was on the up and up, and that there was “no way in hell” he would have allowed a ‘coup attempt’ against Trump.

Embedded video

Sassan K. Darian@sasss31

Former FBI counsel with @benjaminwittes discussing @Comey @FBI

As for the FISA surveillance on Trump campaign aide Carter Page, Baker defended the FBI’s use of the infamous Steele dossier in its application – saying that after personally reviewing the FISA applications, he was “comfortable” with them and confident that the process remained “lawful.”

Of course, in recent days we’ve learned that the State Department and the FBI absolutely knew that the Steele Dossier was a political document of dubious legitimacy, and its author, former UK spy Christopher Steele, was working for Clinton/DNC-funded opposition research firm Fusion GPS to produce the document.

Still, Baker defended the agency’s handling of Steele, saying “We’re not stupid. The FBI. We’re not stupid.”

And Baker said the FBI was careful in the way it used Steele’s reporting. “We have an obligation to take that information seriously and to be highly skeptical … You go to work … You try to validate it … We don’t just swallow it hook, line, and sinker. … We spent a lot of time trying to vet that information line by line,” he said.

We are the Federal Bureau of Investigations, not the Federal Bureau of Conclusions,” Baker said defensively.

Steele has come under increased scrutiny in recent weeks. The Wall Street Journal reported that Horowitz “is homing in on” and “has been asking witnesses about” the FBI’s “treatment of information” provided by Steele. And the New York Times reported that the FBI reached out to some of Steele’s foreign sources and as early as January 2017 agents had reportedly concluded that some of the dossier’s contents may have been based upon “rumors and hearsay” which were “passed from source to source.” The agents believed that some of Steele’s information may have even been based upon “Russian disinformation.” –Washington Examiner

end

He has got to be kidding:  Adam Schiff believes the Ukrainian scandal involving Biden and his son Hunter should be off limits!!  Schiff is nothing but a big joke

(courtesy zerohedge)

Schiff: Biden Ukraine Scandal Should Be Off Limits

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA) said on Sunday that Joe Biden’s Ukraine corruption scandal should be off limits as the 2020 US election approaches, and that President Trump shouldn’t be allowed to investigate – or encourage Ukraine to investigate.

Biden has come under fire for a March, 2016 incident in Kiev in which he threatened to withhold $1 billion in US loan guarantees to Ukraine unless President Petro Poroshenko fired his head prosecutor, General Viktor Shokin, who was leading a wide-ranging corruption investigation into natural gas firm Burisma Holdings. As it so happens, Joe’s son Hunter Biden sat on Burisma’s board, and waas indirectly paid as much as $50,000 per month

‘I said, ‘You’re not getting the billion.’ I’m going to be leaving here in, I think it was about six hours. I looked at them and said: ‘I’m leaving in six hours. If the prosecutor is not fired, you’re not getting the money,’” bragged Biden, recalling the conversation with Poroshenko.

Well, son of a bitch, he got fired,” Biden gloated.

Biden claims he didn’t know Hunter was on the Burisma board for an entire two years (Hunter reportedly joined in April 2014, two years before Biden’s threat), and that the effort to remove Shokin had nothing to do with the ”

“Shokin was fired because he attacked the reformers within the prosecutor general’s office,”

And this should be completely off limits to Trump, according to Adam Schiff 

Schiff told ‘This Week’ that Congress should take up legislation banning political campaigns from working with foreign governments in an effort to influence US elections, responding to news that Trump’s attorney, Rudy Giuliani, had planned to travel to Ukraine to encourage them to further investigate the Biden matter. Giuliani has since canceled the trip.

Going after his son is just a method of going after someone the president believes is his most formidable opponent,” Schiff told ABC’s ‘This Week.’ “So let the president go after him, but don’t seek the help of a foreign government in your election.”

In March, The Hill‘s John Solomon revealed that Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko has launched an investigation into the head of the Ukrainian National Anti-Corruption Bureau for allegedly attempting to help Hillary Clinton defeat Donald Trump during the 2016 US election by releasing damaging information about a “black ledger” of illegal business dealings by former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort.

Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸

@JackPosobiec

Trump made a comment that he should ask Barr to investigate Joe Biden’s foreign ties and suddenly like magic now the entire Left is saying presidential candidates shouldn’t be spied on

Meanwhile, President Trump told Politico on Friday that it would be “appropriate” for him to ask Attorney General William Barr about launching an investigation into Biden, or his son Hunter.

“Certainly it would be an appropriate thing to speak to him about, but I have not done that as of yet. … It could be a very big situation,” said Trump during a 15-minute phone interview Friday afternoon.

The New York Times earlier this month reported on Giuliani’s efforts to investigate and publicize the issue.

The president argued that the alleged conflict of interest, or appearance thereof, was not mushrooming into an all-out scandal because Biden is a Democrat.

“Because he’s a Democrat,” Trump said, the report had about “one-hundredth” the impact as it would have if he “were a Republican.” Politico

To recap; Biden didn’t know his son Hunter was on the board of a Ukrainian natural gas firm for a full two years, before threatening to withhold $1 billion in US loan guarantees if the President of Ukraine didn’t fire the guy investigating the Biden-linked Burisma, and Adam Schiff thinks that should be off limits to investigate, or for voters to consider, going into the 2020 election.

end

I strongly feel that Joe Biden will drop out of the race shortly:   as we has pointed out on previous occasions, he not only has a Ukrainian problem but also a China one as Schweizer exposes son Hunter in a 1 billion dollar graft deal:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Not Just Ukraine; Biden May Have A Serious China Problem As Schweizer Exposes Hunter’s $1bn Deal

Two years of investigations by journalist Peter Schweizer has revealed that Joe Biden may now have a serious China problem. And just like his Ukraine scandal, it involves actions which helped his son Hunter, who was making hand over fist in both countries.

Schweizer, the author of Clinton Cash and now Secret Empires discovered that in 2013, then-Vice President Biden and his son Hunter flew together to China on Air Force Two – and two weeks later, Hunter’s firm inked a private equity deal for $1 billion with a subsidiary of the Chinese government’s Bank of China, which expanded to $1.5 billion, according to an article by Schweizer’s in the New York Post.

If it sounds shocking that a vice president would shape US-China policy as his son — who has scant experience in private equity — clinched a coveted billion-dollar deal with an arm of the Chinese government, that’s because it is” –Peter Schweizer

Perhaps this is why Joe Biden – now on the 2020 campaign trail – said last week that China wasn’t a threat.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo took a shot at Biden’s comment during a speech at the Claremont Institute’s 40th anniversary gala, saying “Look how both parties now are on guard against the threat that China presents to America — maybe except Joe Biden.”

Embedded video

The Hill

@thehill

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks at Claremont Institute’s 40th anniversary gala: “Look how both parties now are on guard against the threat that China presents to America — maybe except Joe Biden.”

end
Here is a good question:  why hasn’t one single Democrat review the unredacted Mueller report?
(courtesy zerohedge)

Why Hasn’t A Single Democrat Looked At The 99.9% Unredacted Mueller Report Provided To Congress?

If there’s one thing that suggests Congressional Democrats are not acting in good faith amid their new obstruction crusade, it’s this;

House Judiciary Chair Jerry Nadler (D-NY) held Attorney General William Barr in contempt on Wednesday for failing to turn over the full Mueller report and its underlying evidence – yet not a single Democrat in Congress has elected to look at the 99.9% unredacted ‘volume 2’ section of the Mueller’s findings provided to Congress by the DOJ, which specifically covers the obstruction portion of Mueller’s investigation (Section “A” of the report covering alleged conspiracy with Russia was offered 98.5% unredacted).

 

Photo: The Atlantic

On Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders told reporters “Not a single Democrat has even taken the time to go and look at it,” adding “They’re asking for information they know they can’t have. The attorney general is actually upholding the law,” referring to a recent ruling by a federal judge which requires that Barr redact grand jury material.

Chairman Nadler is asking the attorney general of the United States to break the law and commit a crime by releasing information that he knows he has no legal authority to have,” added Sanders, referring to House Judiciary Chair Jerry Nadler (D-NY). “It’s truly outrageous and absurd what the chairman is doing and he should be embarrassed by his behavior.”

Earlier Wednesday, President Trump followed the DOJ’s recommendation and asserted executive privilege over the Mueller report and its underlying evidence to prevent the Democrats from obtaining it.

Assistant Attorney General Stephen Boyd told Nadler in a Wednesday letter: “We are disappointed that you have rejected the Department of Justice’s request to delay the vote of the Committee on the Judiciary on a contempt finding against the Attorney General this morning,” adding “Accordingly, this is to advise you that the President has asserted executive privilege over the entirety of the subpoenaed materials.”

Zoe Tillman

@ZoeTillman

NOW: Per new DOJ letter, Trump has asserted executive privilege over all of the documents that the House Judiciary Committee subpoenaed from AG Bill Barr re: Mueller’s unredacted report and underlying evidence/records

On Sunday, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) told ABC’s ‘This Week’ that Mueller is ready to testify before Congress.

“The American people have a right to hear what the man who did the investigation has to say and we now know we certainly can’t rely on the attorney general who misrepresented his conclusions,” sais Schiff. “So he is going to testify.

Rand Paul calls bullshit on the whole thing

Responding later on the show to ABC‘s George Stephanopoulos, Senate Foreign Relations Committee member Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) said that all of the Trump investigations have all been “politically motivated.

“One of the things that Adam Schiff and the other partisans don’t understand is that if you’re accused of a crime by a grand jury and they don’t indict you, the prosecutor doesn’t go all over town saying we thought he did this, we thought he did this, this is all the evidence,” said Rand, adding that “most Americans would disagree” with federal prosecutors who claim that President Trump would be prosecuted if he weren’t in office.

People are horrified by the idea that you could put someone in jail for obstructing justice on something where you didn’t commit the crime,” said Paul.

Embedded video

This Week

@ThisWeekABC

Sen. Rand Paul on Mueller probe: “I think since the very beginning this all has been politically motivated. Now both sides are doing it. I think it goes back even to the Clintons. This is why we shouldn’t have special prosecutors” https://abcn.ws/2J0gebC

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SWAMP STORIES/KEY STORIES/KING REPORT

(COURTESY OF CHRIS POWELL OF GATA)

]

-END-

 

 

 

I WILL SEE YOU TUESDAY NIGHT
I AM PROVIDING A LITTLE ADVANCE WARNING THAT ON MAY 23.2019 I WILL NOT PROVIDE A COMMENTARY. HOWEVER LATE IN THE EVENING I WILL PROVIDE ONLY THE COMEX DATA.

 

 

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