MAY 14/HUGE INCREASE IN GOLD OPEN INTEREST USED TO QUELL ITS RISE YESTERDAY: GOLD DOWN $5.45 TO $1295.55//SILVER UP 2 CENTS TO $14.79//CONTINUED QUEUE JUMPING AT BOTH GOLD AND SILVER COMEX INDICATING SCARCITY OF PHYSICAL METAL//ITALY THROWS THE GAUNTLET DEMANDING A REWRITING OF ITS BUDGET MUCH TO THE ANGER TO BRUSSELS/SEEMS THAT TURKEY IS PREPARING FOR WAR AGAINST CYPRUS WHICH WILL NO DOUBT BRING IN THE ISRAELIS: WILL RUSSIA COME TO THE AID OF TURKEY IN THIS FIASCO//BARR SELECTS A VERY STRONG ATTORNEY TO GO OVER THE DEMOCRATS: DURHAM//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1295.55  DOWN $5.45 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $14.79 UP 2 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold : 1297.00

 

 

 

silver:  $14.80

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 42/43

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,300.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/13/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 05/15/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
661 C JP MORGAN 42 28
737 C ADVANTAGE 1 12
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 43 43
MONTH TO DATE: 232

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 43 NOTICE(S) FOR 4300 OZ (0.1337 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  232 NOTICES FOR 23200 OZ  (.7216 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MAY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

13 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 65,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3373 for 16,865,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :$8060  UP $258.00

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $7642 DOWN $31

 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1934 CONTRACTS FROM 201,956 UP TO 203,890 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S  2 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. ,LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED FOR SILVER BUT IT NOW IN FULL FORCE FOR GOLD. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

 0 FOR MAY, 0 FOR JUNE, 1163 FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1163 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1163 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1163 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 5.82 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 2 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

AND NOW 18.335 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MAY:

12,868 CONTRACTS (FOR 10 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 12,868 CONTRACTS) OR 64,34 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1260 CONTRACTS OR 6.30 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY:  64,34 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 9.19% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          805.44    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED  INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1934 WITH THE TINY  2 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1164 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS RESUMED THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES TODAY.

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 3097 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 1163 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1934 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 2 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.77 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.020 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 145% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 13 NOTICE(S) FOR  65,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ AND NOW MAY:  18.335 MILLION OZ ..
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CRIMINALLY SIZED 31,765 CONTRACTS, TO 520,485 WITH THE STRONG RISE IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(AN INCREASE IN PRICE OF $15,25//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 9488 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 9488 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS, JUNE 2020  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 520,485.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 41,253 CONTRACTS: 31,765 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 9488 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 41,253 CONTRACTS OR 4,125,300 OZ OR 128,31 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF  $15,25….AND WITH THAT STRONG RISE, WE  HAD AN UNBELIEVABLE GAIN OF 128.31  TONNES!!!!!!.?????? 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS HAVE NOW SWITCHED TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF  SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 59,969 CONTRACTS OR 5,996,900 OR 186.52 TONNES (10 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5997 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 186.52 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 186.52/3550 x 100% TONNES =5,25% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     2002.08 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 31,765 WITH THE STRONG RISE IN PRICING ($15.25) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 9488 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 9488 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC AND CRIMINALLY SIZED GAIN OF 41,253 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

9488 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 31,765 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 128,31 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUGE DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF $15.25 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. NO DOUBT THAT A STRONG  PERCENTAGE OF OI GAIN WAS DUE TO THE CONTINUING OF THE SPREADING OPERATION AS I HAVE OUTLINED ABOVE.

 

 

 

we had:  43 notice(s) filed upon for 4300 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45  TODAY

THE FOLLOWING MAKES A LOT OF SENSE:

A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD

 

 

 

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORy

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY:

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1934 CONTRACTS from 201,956 UPTO 203,890 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED THEIR LIQUIDATION IN SILVER BUT HAVE NOW MORPHED INTO GOLD..

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE:

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 0 FOR MAY, FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 1163 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1163 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1934 CONTRACTS TO THE 1163 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 3097 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 15.455 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL AND NOW 18.335 MILLION OZ FOR MAY

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE TINY 2 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 1163 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  DOWN 20.10 POINTS OR 0.69%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 428.22 POINTS OR 1.50%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 124.55 POINTS OR 0.59%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .85%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8816 /Oil UP to 61.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.08 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9068 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8816 TRADE TALKS STILL ON//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP THREATENS TO RAISE RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

i)NORTH KOREA

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 China/Chinese affairs

 

 

i)China/USA/

Jeffrey Snider outlines the warning signs that we must be cognizant of:  the low price of copper, the higher yen values, and lower CNY exchange and the scarcity of dollars floating around the globe:  all indicators of a massive global slowdown.  He states that we should not pay any attempt to the Chinese threatening to dump dollars

( Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra Investment Partners)

 

ii)Although both Trump and Chinese leaders toned down the rhetoric  today which caused the European and USA markets to rise, the Chinese media seem very upset with the USA.  They are calling for a people’s war against the USA and vowing to fight for a “New World”

( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)ITALY

Again, Salvini aggravates Brussels:  this time Italy declares wars on boats rescuing immigrants

( zero hedge)

ii)The war between Salvini and Brussels intensifies as our Italian’s defacto leader is now willing to break EU budget rules.

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey

A little background to this story:  Israel made this very big discovery of natural gas and some oil off its coast several years ago.  They knew that the discovery was heading onto Cyprus and told sovereign Cyprus on the nature of that discovery.  You will recall that Cyprus had a civil war in 1974 between Greece and Turkey whereby an armistice was established in that Northern Cyprus would be governed by Turkish Cypriots and the rest of the country by Greek Cypriots.  The capital Nicosia  would be under control of Greek Cypriots.  Turkey never recognized the Greek overthrow of Cyprus and now that a massive amount of gas has been discovered and badly needed by Turkey, you can now see why Turkey is ready to go to war over this.

( zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

Cuba

Crisis begins in Cuba as there is widespread rationing of food: so much for socialism

( zerohedge)

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

VENEZUELA

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

I)Slowly and surely many nations are moving away from the dollar.  Today we find that Asian leaders are adding Chinese yuan and Japanese yen to the reserve buffers

( South China Morning post/GATA)

ii)Mike Kosares posts his views on gold/silver in this May report which is now in the open

( USA Gold/Mike Kosares)

iii)This is deadly as James Turk claims that counter party risk  (credit default swaps) are rising fast and that should be good for gold.

(James Turk/GATA)

iv)A slow down in gold demand from China last month coming in at 151.89 tonnes.  It will improve next month.

( Lawrie Williams)

v)Lawrie Williams tackles the USA China trade war with respect to gold With respect to who will win the war between the USA and China it is up in the air. Williams thinks that China will win.( Lawrie Williams)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//

 

 

 

ii)Market data

this is not what the Fed wants to see:  USA import, export prices disappoint as China’s deflationary impulse hits a 12 year low

In a nutshell, China is sending deflation throughout the globe due to its excess capacity

( zerohedge)

ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

USA/China

a)USA posts details on the 300 billion dollars of remaining goods to be tariffed.

( zerohedge)

b)A USA trade official states that a trade deal is not even close:  It could be in for a long trade war with China.

( zerohedge)

c)Another indicator that the trade deal is a long way off:  Trump: “we will make a deal with China when the time is right”

( zerohedge)

d)This is one of the big casualties of the trade war:  soybean prices crash to decade lows.

( zerohedge)

e)It looks like Boeing will need to shell out over one billion dollars for those doomed 737 Max passengers(courtesy zerohedge)

SWAMP STORIES

a)Barr selects apolitical Attorney John Durham, a non nonsense fellow to head the investigation into FBI/DOJ spying. He has also investigated the FBI before

( zero hedge)

b)Rosenstein slams Comey.  Grab your popcorn on this;
( zerohedge)

c)Clapper is nervous; he now claims: “we don’t need another investigation of the investigators”. I wonder why he thinks that

( zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS AND CRIMINALLY SIZED 31,765 CONTRACTS.TO A LEVEL OF 520,485 WITH THE STRONG GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($15.25) IN YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING) 

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 9488 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

0 FOR JUNE ’19: 9488 CONTRACTS , DEC; 0 CONTRACTS: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  9488 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 41,253 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 9488 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 31,765 COMEX CONTRACTS.

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 41,253 contracts OR 4,125,300 OZ OR 128,31 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of MAY and here the open interest stands at 159 contracts, having GAINED 40 contracts. We had 2 notices served yesterday so we gained 42 contracts or an additional 4200  oz will stand as they guys refused to morph into a London based forward as well as negating a fiat bonus

The next contract month after May is June and here the open interest ROSE by 7372 contracts UP to 290,212.  July GAINED 0 contracts to stand at 86.  After July the next active month is August and here the OI rose by 19,523 contracts up to 149,299 contracts.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 43 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  4300  OZ. (0.0062 TONNES)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1934 CONTRACTS FROM 201,956 UP TO 203,890 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S STRONG OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A  2 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.  HERE WE HAVE 307 OPEN INTEREST STAND SO FAR FOR A LOSS OF ONLY 16 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 19 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO IN ESSENCE WE GAINED ANOTHER  3 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 15,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. SILVER MUST BE SCARCE AT THE COMEX. QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE. WE HAVE NOW SURPASSED THE INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING WHICH OCCURRED ON APRIL 30.2019

 

 

 

THE NEXT MONTH AFTER MAY IS THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF  JUNE.  HERE THIS MONTH GAINED 2 CONTRACTS UP TO 741. AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY, (THE SECOND LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR FOR SILVER) AND HERE THIS MONTH GAINED 1459 CONTRACTS UP TO 155,379 CONTRACTS. THE NEXT ACTIVE MONTH AFTER JULY FOR SILVER IS SEPTEMBER AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 446 UP TO 18,991 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 13 notice(s) filed for 65,000 OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 231,465  CONTRACTS 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  442,835  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  MAY/GOLD

MAY 14 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
8219.138
oz
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
43 notice(s)
 4300 OZ
(0.1337 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
116 contracts
(11600 oz)
0.3608 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
232 notices
23200 OZ
.7216 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else:  zero oz

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside/ again zero amount arrived  today

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

(maybe investors are taking our advice by not storing their gold at the comex.)

this will hurt our bankers as they need to replace leased gold as all gold stored at the gold comex is unallocated.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE RATS ARE FLEEING A SINKING SHIP!

Gold withdrawals;

i)  We had 1 withdrawal:

from the Bank of Nova Scotia:  8219.138 oz

 

.

total gold withdrawals;    8219.138 oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustments today

FOR THE MAY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 43 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 42 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (232) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (159 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (43 x 100 oz per contract) equals 34,800 OZ OR 1.082 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of MAY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (232 x 100 oz)  + (159)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (43 x 100 oz )which equals 34,800 oz standing OR 1.082 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of MAY.

We gained 42 contracts or an additional 4200 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into a London based forwards. Queue jumping continues where we left off last month in gold and for that matter in silver.  We now have two precious metals undergoing queue jumping as the bankers scramble to obtain physical metal.

 

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 6.632 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 1.082 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

IF THIS IS GOING ON IN MAY, I JUST CANNOT WAIT TO SEE WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  213,219.982 oz or  6.632tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,694,556.524 oz 239.33 tonnes

 

 

FOR COMPARISON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR MAY 2018 AND FINAL STANDING MAY 31 2018

 

 

AT FIRST DAY NOTICE MAY 1 2018: WE HAD 1.284 TONNES OF GOLD STAND.  BY MONTH’S END:  2.27 TONNES AS WE HAD ONE QUEUE JUMPING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

IN THE LAST 32 MONTHS 117 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
MAY 14 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
644,111.58 oz
DELAWARE
BRINKS
BNS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
599,952.224 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
13
CONTRACT(S)
(65,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
294 contracts
1,470,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3373 contracts

16,865,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: NIL  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 149.469 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.80% of all official comex silver. (149 million/307 million)

 

into CNT:  599,952.224 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  599,952.224  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of Brinks:  3994.950 oz

ii) Out of CNT; 39,984.458 oz
iii) Out of Scotia:  600,132.150 oz

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals:  644,111.158 oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

i) out of CNT:  39,365.45 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

 

 

total dealer silver:  92.179 million

total dealer + customer silver:  306.928 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MAY 2019. contract month is represented by 13 contract(s) FOR  965,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3373 x 5,000 oz = 16,865,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (307) and the number of notices served upon today (13 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY/2019 contract month: 33763(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY( 307) -number of notices served upon today (14)x 5000 oz equals 18,335,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month.

We GAINED 3 contracts or an additional 15,000 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus for their efforts.

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON VS LAST YEAR:

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE APRIL 30/2018 (FOR THE MAY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH) WE HAD 24.11 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY.  BY MONTH END WE HAD HUGE QUEUE JUMPING AND THUS 36.285 MILLION OZ EVENTUALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY.

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  51,093 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 69,812 CONTRACTS..

 

..

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 69,812 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 349 million  OZ 49.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -4.38% (MAY 14/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -2.03% to NAV (MAY 14/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.38%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.92 TRADING 12.36/DISCOUNT 4.32

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MAY 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45 TODAY: STRANGE!! THE CROOKS DECIDED TO DEPOSIT A HUGE 3.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

MAY 13/ WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $15.40 TODAY: STRANGE! A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.41 TONNES OF GOLD (TO TAME GOLD’S RISE TODAY)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 10 WITH GOLD UP $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 9//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 7/ WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $9.35 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.52

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD UP $4.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES//

APRIL 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.2//ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 746.69 TONNES TONNES

APRIL 25//WITH GOLD UP $.05 TODAY  (BASICALLY FLAT) NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

 

APRIL 24 WITH GOLD UP  $6.00 TODAY// TWO TRANSACTIONS: 1)A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD AND THEN II) ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

APRIL 23./WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES//

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD UP $1.75//A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT752.27 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES AT THE GLD WHICH WAS USED IN YESTERDAY’S RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 752.27 TONNES

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.03

APRIL 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $2.10 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757..85 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.45 AGAIN TODAY, THE CROOKS AGAIN RAIDED THE COOKE JAR BY 2.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.49 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40: THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 761.67 TONNES.

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD UP$1.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF PHYSICAL GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.55 TONNES

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.29 TONNES

APRIL 3:WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS: ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL: 3.81 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  764.29 TONNES

APRIL 2//WOW! WE LOST A WHOPPING 16.16 TONNES OF GOLD WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $1.80//INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.10

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

MAY 14/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 736.46 tonnes

*IN LAST 594 TRADING DAYS: 197.51NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 494 TRADING DAYS: A NET 31.67 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN LOST INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MAY 14/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

MAY 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ…

MAY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///

MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///

MAY 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 891,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

MAY 3//WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 843,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/TOTAL INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.691 MILLION OZ//

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 13 CENTS, MIRACUOUSLY THE AUTHORITIES ADD 2.869 MILLION OZ OF SILVER BACK INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.848 MILLION OZ//

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ////

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 29/ WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 26//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 23./WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A SHOCKING 2.8122 MILLION PAPER OZ WERE ADDED INTO SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15: WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 12 WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 750,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ//

April 10/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:  THE CROOKS CANNOT RAID ANY SILVER BECAUSE THERE IS NONE: INVENTORY RETS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 4/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP TWO CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/ WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ FROM THE SLV TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167

 

 

 

MAY 14/2019:

 

Inventory 316.582 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.13/ and libor 6 month duration 2.59

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .46

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.42%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.67

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.25

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Tops $1,300/oz As Trade Wars Escalate and Increased Risk of U.S. War With Iran

Gold sees safe haven demand push it to highest in one month as it breaches key $1,300/oz and £1,000/oz levels

* U.S. China trade wars escalates as China retaliates and imposes tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods

* Increased risk of war in Middle East after U.S. alleges Iran bombed Saudi oil vessels destined for the U.S. 

Gold in USD – 1 Year

Gold prices held steady near one-month highs today as an escalation in Sino-U.S. trade war saw increased risk aversion and sharp selling of stocks which sent investors into safe haven gold.

Increasing tensions in the Middle East are likely also leading to safe haven demand, particularly in the region. The U.S. appears to be inching towards war with Iran and unnamed US military officials have accused Iran of using explosives to blow holes in US-bound Saudi oil tankers in alleged sabotage attacks by Iran.

Asian shares extended losses today, following sharply lower U.S. stocks on Wall Street overnight after China announced retaliatory tariff-hike to counter Trump’s aggressive tariffs.

European shares have eked out small gains this morning despite the heightened trade, economic and geopolitical risks.

We believe that given the deteriorating trade, economic and geopolitical outlook, we may be in for a period of market volatility and risk aversion. Gold will again act as an excellent hedge for investors and is likely to eke out further gains in the coming months.

WATCH INTERVIEW HERE

News and Commentary

Gold tops $1,300 for highest finish in a month, as U.S. stock market drops on trade tensions

Gold eyes best day in 3-months as China hits back over U.S. tariffs

Trump says he will meet with Xi and Putin at G20

Wall Street dives as U.S.-China trade war escalates

Metro Bank tells UK customers their deposits are safe

Federal Spending Sets Record Through April: $2,573,708,000,00 

Is US-China trade war eroding U.S. dollar dominance?

Top Iranian Official Taunts: US “Not Ready For A War, Specially When Israel Is Within Our Range”

Saudi Arabia Says Two Oil Tankers Attacked Amid Rising Iran Tensions

 

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 
end

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

Slowly and surely many nations are moving away from the dollar.  Today we find that Asian leaders are adding Chinese yuan and Japanese yen to the reserve buffers

(courtesy South China Morning post/GATA)

(courtesy USA Gold/Mike Kosares)

This is deadly as James Turk claims that counter party risk  (credit default swaps) are rising fast and that should be good for gold.

(James Turk/GATA)

Counterparty risk soaring and will propel gold, Turk tells KWN

 Section: 

6:30p ET Monday, May 13, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Counterparty risk in the financial markets is rising fast, GoldMoney founder James Turk tells King World News today, and likely will cause a breakout in the monetary metals.

“Money is exiting the financial system so investors can preserve their wealth from bank and bond defaults,” Turk says. “But the best antidote to counteract the poison of counterparty risk is physical gold and silver.”

Turk’s comments are excerpted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/james-turk-major-gold-breakout-today-as-counte…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END



iii) Other Physical stories
A slow down in gold demand from China last month coming in at 151.89 tonnes.  It will improve next month.
(courtesy Lawrie Williams)

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: China SGE gold withdrawals sharply down in April

The April figures for Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) gold withdrawals show a sharp fall year on year which could indicate a significant downturn in the Chinese economy, although it is probably still too early to confirm this given withdrawals last year fell sharply from May onwards. However the cumulative total to date is very close to that of 2017.

The latest total gives withdrawal figures ample time to recover through the remainder of the year. But even so the figures may show that the Trump imposed tariffs are beginning to bite as far as gold imports and consumption are concerned. The latest month-by-month withdrawal figures, and comparative ones for 2018 and 2017, are shown in the table below:

Table: SGE Monthly Gold Withdrawals 2017-2019 (Tonnes)

Table: SGE Monthly Gold Withdrawals 2017-2019 (Tonnes)

Month 2019 2018 2017 % change 2018- 2019 % change 2017-2019
January 218.54 223.58 184.41 -2.30% 18.51%
February*   99.77 118.42 148.24 -15.75% -32.70%
March  218.03 192.61 192.25  +13.19% +13.41%
April  151.89 212.64 165.78  -28.57%  -8.38%
May 150.58 138.08
June 140.59 155.51
July 137.41 144.71
August 190.59 161.41
September 188.12 214.24
October* 142.94 151.54
November 179.08 189.1
December 178.04 185.21
Year to date 688.23 747.25 690.68 -7.89%  -0.35%
Full Year 2,054.54 2,030.48

Source:  Shanghai Gold Exchange.  Lawrieongold.com

* Months which include week long New Year and Golden Week
holiday periods when the SGE remains closed

* Months which include week long New Year and Golden Week holiday periods when the SGE remains closed

We have always looked upon the SGE withdrawal figures as being a strong indicator of Chinese gold consumption and imports and to an extent the latest figure confirms the slowdown in gold imports we have seen from key gold exporters like Switzerland so far this year. But as far as global gold demand is concerned it appears that demand is picking up nicely in India and is strong in Europe (particularly in Germany and Austria) and this should counterbalance any Chinese shortfall this year,

But – and it is a big but – the world could be heading for a trade war-stimulated recession which could have a somewhat mixed impact on global gold demand. On the one hand it could stimulate safe haven buying from those with deep pockets, but also adversely affect purchases from the huge numbers of small gold accumulators, particularly in countries like China, which tend to have a significant impact on global gold demand. It could also stimulate sales of gold related investment holdings as people use their built-up gold accumulations to alleviate any recession-related income downturns and also revive what has been a flat to falling gold scrap supply sector.

One should also take into account what appear to be increasing central bank gold purchases as a further boost to demand. At the moment the number of countries openly adding to their gold reserves appears to be limited but it does appear that some countries which had held their gold reserves steady for a number of years may now be adding to them on a regular basis.

It is yet too early to confirm whether we are heading for a global recession or not – the likelihood is that there could well be a recession ahead, but how deep this may be and when it will occur probably still remains in the future. However equities markets are definitely nervous and while we may well see something of a recovery in U.S. equities today after yesterday’s very sharp falls, this may not be prolonged. The U.S. Fed and Administration will be keen to see, and may help stimulate, a market recovery, but ultimately the market itself will probably win out which could be bad for equities, but positive for gold and silver.

14 May 2019

end

Lawrie Williams tackles the USA China trade war with respect to gold With respect to who will win the war between the USA and China it is up in the air. Williams thinks that China will win.

(courtesy Lawrie Williams)

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Gold Jumps, Dow crashes as US/China trade war escalates

With the apparent breakdown of U.S./China trade talks on Friday without any agreement, markets were perhaps poised yesterday ahead of a possible China retaliation and this materialised with China retaliating by imposing tariffs of up to 25% on some $50 billion worth of U.S. imported goods and also threatening to cut off U.S. agricultural imports altogether. True this is a substantially lower figure than the value of Chinese imports into the U.S. which have had 25% tariffs imposed, but then China imports less U.S. goods than America does Chinese ones. But President Trump may have miscalculated here as many feel that China is less vulnerable to increased tariffs from the U.S. than the U.S. is to Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods and may be more attuned to increasing exports to other nations to compensate.

U.S. importers of Chinese goods will almost certainly have to pass on tariff increases to the consumer and with China close to being dominant in some sectors of the market – notably electronics and other consumer goods – the Trump move may backfire on the U.S. President. China is probably more capable of replacing U.S. exports from domestic sources rapidly than the U.S. can replace Chinese imports quickly. Indeed even with 25% tariffs many Chinese electronic products may still be priced below possible U.S. replacements. In retrospect the U.S. move may prove to be even more counter-productive in that it may well prove to be an incentive for Chinese manufacturers to copy more U.S. goods for its own domestic market than it already does and supposed theft of intellectual property is one of the very things President Trump is trying to bring to a halt through the U.S. tariff impositions. Thus the opposing tariff and counter-tariff moves may thus exacerbate the problem rather than solve it!

American markets certainly took the Chinese tariff impositions adversely. Yesterday, the Dow came down over a massive 600 points, the S&P 500 was down almost 70 points and the NASDAQ around 270. All huge intra-day falls. The gold price climbed to hit $1,300 an ounce at a couple of points on safe haven demand and although it then came off a few dollars it then moved back up again and closed at $1,299.30, thus being kept below the psychological $1,300 level at the close, but only just The pgms as industrial metals fell back along with the U.S. equities and the gold price was again approaching that of palladium and looked like it might shortly surpass it again for the second time inside a week, but ended up a couple of dollars short.

European markets also closed lower with the FTSE 100 off almost 40 points and Germany’s DAX down over 180 points. As noted below a U.S./China trade war does no-one any good. It has repercussions in seemingly unaffected markets. Asian markets all fell overnight too.

Whether the tit-for-tat tariff imposition moves will be sufficient to tip the U.S., and maybe the world, into recession is too early to tell, but there have been plenty of warnings that a trade war, however justified it may seem to be in principle, ends up doing no-one any good. It seems unlikely to prove to be sufficient to re- stimulate the U.S. manufacturing industry and the big danger for the U.S. is that tariff-hit Chinese goods may well just be replaced with similar imports from other low cost manufacturing regions – again mostly Asian – so not helping the U.S. trade deficit situation. Meanwhile although it may initially be damaging to the Chinese economy, the country’s capability to react extremely quickly to seemingly adverse circumstances, means that it may be less damaged in the medium to long term. China’s economy is still growing at a more rapid rate than Western ones and the imposition of tariffs on exported goods may just present a minor blip in the country’s growth pattern.

In the U.S., however, if the decline in equities is sustained there will certainly be increased pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve from the Trump Administration to cut interest rates, thus reversing the recent rises and, hopefully the equities markets falls. Scope for doing this is somewhat limited given how low interest rates are at present, but any move to cut will be gold-positive as real interest rates would move further into negative territory and the more negative interest rates go the more beneficial it is for gold investment – or so the theory goes.

It will be interesting to see how markets react through the remainder of the week. Equities may bounce back, but such a bounce could be shortlived and if so gold is likely to breach $1,300 yet again and perhaps this time the breach could be permanent. Resistance is seen at $1,310 but many analysts see $1,350 as the key and if the gold price can get through that level in the northern hemisphere summer it could be poised for $1,400 and above in the second half of the year.

14 May 2019

-END-

 
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.8816/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9068   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 20.10 POINTS OR 0.69%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 428.22 POINTS OR 1.50%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 124.55 POINTS OR 0.59%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN /

 

 

 

USA dollar index FALLS TO 97.36/Euro RISES TO 1.1234

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.05/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.66/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 61.64 and Brent: 71.08

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO 07%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.70% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.98%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.77: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.57

3k Gold at $1299.00 silver at: 14.80   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 12/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.30

3m oil into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and 70 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.66 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0078 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1322 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.07%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.41% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.85%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.0418..they are toast

Futures Jump As Trump Comments Spark New Hope For Trade Deal

A day after equities suffered their worst selloff of 2019, the S&P rebounded even as world stocks hovered near two-month lows on Tuesday, following more optimistic comments from U.S. and Chinese officials on trade which brought some comfort.

The rebound started just after 8pm EDT on Monday night, with the S&P trading just above 2,800 when President Trump said he believed discussions with China “will be very successful,” with the outcome expected in three or four weeks.

Responding to Trump, who said he was optimistic about resolving the trade dispute, the Chinese government’s top diplomat said China and the United States both have the “ability and wisdom” to reach a trade deal that is good for both.

Of course, it is quite possible that the market’s overly optimistic interpretation of Trump’s take may have been premature, considering that on Tuesday morning Trump has had a barrage of no less than 7 tweets on the topic of trade war, with the highlight so far his claim that “when the time is right we will make a deal with China. My respect and friendship with President Xi is unlimited but, as I have told him many times before, this must be a great deal for the United States or it just doesn’t make any sense.” In second tweet, Trump says deal must make up some of “tremendous ground we have lost to China on Trade since the ridiculous one sided formation of the WTO. It will all happen, and much faster than people think!”

Hardly the stuff of an imminent deal, but for now the algos are ignoring it and focusing on the glimmers of optimism, which has paved the way for a positive start for European stocks with stock markets in London, Frankfurt and Paris 0.6% to 0.9% higher, while U.S. stock futures rallied.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed as much as 0.8%, bouncing from the previous session’s selloff, with all sectors but real estate in green, amid renewed hopes for a U.S.-China trade deal. Trade-sensitive sectors including luxury, miners lead gains, while energy also rose as BP gained 2%, Shell rose 1.1% after Brent oil jumped after Saudi Arabia reported drone attacks on pumping stations, the latest escalation in Middle East tensions.

“The trade war is driving markets at the moment,” said Rory McPherson, head of investment strategy at Psigma Investment Management in London. “Markets were prone to a selloff after a good start to the year on expectations of policy easing from central banks and no escalation of trade tensions, and it’s this latter pillar that has come away.”

Earlier, Asian shares took another beating on Tuesday catching up to the Monday US rout, but closed off their lows, following the more upbeat tone from U.S. and Chinese officials.

MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan fell over 1% to its lowest level since Jan 30, leaving MSCI’s world equity index stuck near its lowest levels in around two months. Japan’s Nikkei stock index fell to its lowest since mid-February, while broader Asian markets were dragged down by a selloff in Chinese shares.

The rebound in optimism was perplexing as just one day earlier China said it would impose higher tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods in retaliation against the U.S. tariff hike, and at least some analysts remained quite skeptical. ING economist Prakash Sakpal said the current volatility showed how a “180-degree” turn in U.S. rhetoric on trade negotiations had spooked markets. “We don’t see any quick end to this state of the markets until we see some resolution, constructive dialogue and something very solid in terms of deals. But the hopes for that are a bit misplaced currently,” he said.

Judging by the markets’ reaction so far today, Prakash’s take is in the minority, and signs of stability in global stock markets took the shine off safe-haven assets for now.

As a result, yields on 10-year German government bonds were about 2bps higher on the day at minus 0.06% and off six-week lows hit on Monday when investors flooded into safe havens; U.S. 10-year Treasury yields also rose away from Monday’s six-week lows, rising back above three-month bill yields after the yield curve inverted on Monday for the second time in less than a week. That latest inversion raised recession worries and concerns about the economic impact of a trade war, given a sustained inversion of this part of the yield curve has preceded every U.S. recession in the past 50 years.

In FX, the safe-haven yen too lost some ground as the mood improved, with the dollar strengthening 0.4% against the Japanese currency to 109.74. The euro firmed 0.12% at $1.1235. However, China’s offshore yuan hit a fresh 2019 low in Asian trade before rebounding to trade at 6.8989 per dollar, up 0.2%, only to erase gains on Tuesday afternoon to trade at 6.9123 per USD, after earlier rising the most since April 17.

Its onshore counterpart strengthened slightly to 6.8731 per dollar after the four-month lows touched on Monday sparked speculation Beijing was letting the currency weaken amid the intensifying trade war.

For those who care, in the latest Brexit news, PM May is said to be considering definitive votes on different Brexit options in an attempt to break the Brexit deadlock, while reports added she is expected to ask MPs to rank different outcomes in order of preference. The report suggested that the government appears to be willing to go ahead with their plan for definitive votes regardless of support from the Labor Party. In other news, conservatives are reportedly preparing a new offer on a post-Brexit customs union; however, a source states that this offer has not been agreed with the Labour party.

In geopolitical news, a US defense official presented an updated military plan to the Trump administration which involves deploying 120k troops to the Middle East if Iran attacks US forces.  Additionally, North Korea said US seizure of its ship is in direct violation of June 12 summit agreement, while it added US should return the ship immediately and that it will keep a close eye on US actions going forward. And finally, a large military operation was undertaken against Saudi targets, and seven drones undertook attacks on key Saudi installations., according to Yemen’s Hothi-Run television citing Military Officials.

On today’s calendar, expected data include NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Ralph Lauren, Agilent, and Aurora Cannabis are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2,817.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 373.88
  • MXAP down 0.9% to 154.35
  • MXAPJ down 0.9% to 507.15
  • Nikkei down 0.6% to 21,067.23
  • Topix down 0.4% to 1,534.98
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.5% to 28,122.02
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 2,883.61
  • Sensex up 0.7% to 37,354.89
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.9% to 6,239.91
  • Kospi up 0.1% to 2,081.84
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.0 bps to -0.06%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1239
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 2.326%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 0.998%
  • Brent futures down 0.2% to $70.12/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,297.73
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.33

Top Overnight News

  • The U.S. is prepared to hit China with new tariffs even as President Trump says he’ll meet his Chinese counterpart at next month’s G-20 summit, an encounter that could prove pivotal in a deepening clash over trade. China may release more retaliatory trade measures: Global Times
  • Prime Minister Theresa May will meet with her cabinet Tuesday as she comes under increasing pressure to pull out of Brexit talks with the opposition Labour Party and set a date for her departure. The latest in a series of cross- party meetings aimed at ending the parliamentary deadlock over leaving the European Union broke up without substantive progress Monday evening, according to a person familiar with the discussions
  • A gauge of Australian employment slumped to the lowest level in more than three years, according to a closely watched survey of businesses sentiment, in a possible harbinger of interest-rate cuts ahead. National Australia Bank Ltd.’s April employment index dropped to -1 in April from 6 in March, the weakest reading since January 2016
  • U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo made scant progress persuading European Union counterparts to take a harder line toward Iran during a quick visit to Brussels, with the EU standing behind the nuclear accord abandoned by Washington — and warning of a potential military conflict
  • In principle Japan will work toward making it easier to raise the sales tax, rather than delaying it, Finance Minister Taro Aso says. Right now Japan isn’t thinking about additional fiscal spending Aso tells reporters
  • Oil held a loss as an escalating U.S.-China trade war jeopardized the demand outlook, while the rising risk that geopolitical tension in the Middle East will disrupt crude flows prevented further declines
  • Data in the U.K. showed strong wage growth in the first quarter while the jobless rate hit a 44-year low
  • Japanese funds have piled $29 billion into French bonds in the space of a month, almost as much as they spent on the debt for the rest of the year.

Asian equity markets were mostly lower as global risk sentiment remained pressured by the escalating US-China trade tensions, which resulted to substantial losses on Wall St. and the worst performance of the S&P 500 in more than 4 months. This followed the tit-for-tat between the world’s 2 largest economies in which China announced its retaliatory tariffs affecting over 5000 US products at a rate of between 5%-25% despite US President Trump’s warnings, while the USTR office later posted details of potential duties on the approximate remaining USD 300bln of Chinese goods. ASX 200 (-0.9%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.6%) were both negative with the declines in Australia led by continued underperformance in its largest weighted financials sector and amid losses in energy names after a retreat in oil prices, while Japanese exporters felt the brunt of the recent flows into JPY. Hang Seng (-1.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.7%) were weaker with Hong Kong playing catch up on return from the extended weekend, although the mainland bourse briefly recovered as participants found some encouragement from a CNY 200bln MLF announcement, as well as comments by US President Trump who suggested we will know the result of trade talks in 3-4 weeks and that he feels talks will be very successful. Finally, 10yr JGBs were uneventful amid a similar lacklustre tone in T-note futures and as the improved results in in the 30yr JGB auction also failed to spur prices.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong Stocks Catch Up With Global Rout as Trump Softens Blow
  • Biggest U.A.E. Bank Slumps as MSCI Verdict Deals Blow to Stock
  • A Spat Over FamilyMart China Is Brewing After Its Success
  • Nissan Is Said to Mull Buying Stake in Chinese Electric Carmaker

European stocks have nursed some losses from yesterday’s sell-off [Eurostoxx 50 +0.6%] in what seems to be (for now) a turn-around from the down-beat Asia-Pac session. Sectors are mostly in the green with defensive sectors underperforming, in-fitting with the “less risk off” tone in the markets.  DAX (+0.3%) marginally underperforms its peers as heavyweight Bayer (-2.7%) stumbled after the Co. lost a third trial related to claims its Roundup weed killer causes cancer and the jury awarded USD 2bln in punitive damages. Elsewhere, Renault (-2.5%) shares took a hit after its alliance partner Nissan cut operating profit forecasts whilst also slashing dividend. Sticking with autos, Volkswagen (-1.4%) shares were buoyed amid reports that the company decided to IPO Traton before the Summer break this year. Finally, as the European Q1 earnings season approaches its end, HSBC notes that from the 85% of EU companies that have reported, 55% topped estimates and the results are off the lows seen in Q4 2018 (49% beat). “Though the re-emergence of US-China trade tension remains a concern, we see limited downside to European earnings from here” says HSBC, whilst citing continuing improvement in earning revisions. Furthermore, The bank’s top-down model points to 2019 EPS growth of around 5.3%, marginally above expectations. Despite this, HSBC is underweight on Europe as US companies have outpaced its European counterparts and the “expected 2019 EPS growth forecast for Europe (c.5%) is lower than our [HSBC’s] EPS growth estimates for the US (7%) and global equities (8%)”, the bank concludes.

Top European News

  • Strong U.K. Wage Growth Continues Amid Tight Labor Market
  • Krona Becomes Hard to Fathom for Strategists as Trade Woes Mount
  • VW, Thyssenkrupp, AB InBev Look Past Market Turmoil to Plan IPOs
  • ECB’s Villeroy Says Recent Data Don’t Refute Economic Forecasts
  • ECB High-Flier Coeure Risks Third Time Unlucky in Presidency Bid

In FX, It’s too early to talk in terms of a turnaround Tuesday, but the risk pendulum has changed direction to the benefit of high beta currencies that were hit hard yesterday and to the detriment of safe-havens. The catalyst appears to be some respite in US-China trade anxiety as President Trump holds off on additional tariffs and remains optimistic that the 2 sides will reach an agreement down the line. The part reversal in sentiment has also helped the DXY recover some poise, albeit indirectly as a firm rebound in Usd/Jpy and Cable retreat combine to nudge the index back up from near 97.000 lows into a 97.270-390 range.

  • NZD/EUR/CAD – The Kiwi is leading the comeback from Monday’s depths and is hovering just under 0.6600 vs its US peer, as NZ Finance Minister Robertson pledged to reallocate Nzd1 bn budget expenditure given that Brexit and the US-China tariff spat are both compounding risks faced by the nation’s exporters. Meanwhile, the single currency is holding above 1.1200 and outperforming Sterling near 0.8700 on renewed Brexit angst, with resistance not far above the big figure at 0.8722, and the Loonie has rebounded ahead of 1.3500 into a 1.3487-57 range. Back to Eur/Usd, a decent 1.2 bn option expiries at 1.1240 may influence direction into the NY cut as the pair meanders between 1.1244-20.
  • JPY/CHF/GBP/AUD – As noted above, the Yen and Franc have lost their safe-haven allure, or at least some appeal, with shorts caught in Usd/Jpy as 109.00 support held and the headline pair squeezed back up to 109.77. Note, 109.50 was a double bottom and 109.23 a key Fib that was breached, but not on a closing basis and this exacerbated the snap back, along with similar tech and stop-fuelled retracements in Yen crosses, like Eur/Jpy and Aud/Jpy according to market contacts. Meanwhile, Cable finally relinquished 1.3000+ status, 100 and 200 DMAs (at 1.3011 and 1.2959 respectively) on the way down to a fresh mtd base (sub-1.2930) before paring some losses and largely shrugging off mixed UK jobs and earnings data. Similarly, the Aussie is lagging either side of 0.6950 following a downbeat NAB business sentiment survey overnight.
  • SEK/TRY – Some respite for the Swedish Krona and Turkish Lira on top of the less risk averse environment in general as Swedish inflation eclipsed consensus to underscore the Riksbank’s view that it is broadly in line with target, while Turkish IP fell less than expected and latest reports suggest that its planned S-400 purchase from Russia may be shelved until 2020. Eur/Sek now closer to 10.7700 vs 10.8200+ at one stage and Usd/Try nearer 6.0500 than 6.1120 at the earlier high.

In commodities, WTI (+0.4%) and Brent (+0.7%) futures trended lower for much of the session, but have subsequently reverted into positive territory following reports that two Saudi Aramco oil pumping stations have been attacked; for reference, This pipeline replaces the passage of oil through the Hormuz Strait, and as such a failure of this pipeline may increase Iran’s influence of oil flow in the region, as according to Energy Economist Anas Alhajji. Up until this Saudi update, news-flow had been light for the sector, although the OPEC Monthly report is due later today ahead of the API crude stocks report, with the headline expected to build by 2.8mln barrels. Elsewhere, Gold is relatively uneventful and holding onto most its gains just under the USD 1300/oz level, whilst copper prices are just off lows after the red metal tested USD 2.70/lb to the downside amid the heightened US-Sino trade tensions.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 0.6%; YoY, est. 0.3%, prior 0.0%
  • 8:30am: Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.7%; YoY, prior 0.6%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning (or actually evening from the previous night) from the US West Coast where I’ll be speaking to CFOs/CEOs of major tech companies at a DB conference over the next couple of days. It also gives me a chance to escape from any heart thumping middle of the night encounters at home with the rat colony that our building work seems to have stirred. We’re still a bit shell shocked from that experience although I wish I’d have videoed me with a golf club in hand and my wife shouting to a rat that we were calling the police when we heard loud noises in the next room as we investigated the noise at 2.30am last week. Like with our nerves it’s been a bruising few days for the tech sector given last week’s trade war developments so no doubt that will dominate discussions.

Indeed, since around the middle of last week it’s become clear that it would be hard to quickly de-escalate this latest US/China trade spat as the war of words and actions on both sides became incrementally more entrenched. As such risk assets were clearly vulnerable. As we discussed yesterday the weekend news continued on this theme and markets yesterday caught up to the reality of an extended battle that will likely continue to pressure risk assets. The only good news is that the two sides continue to talk with meetings planned and that Mr Trump and President Xi Jinping’s relationship hasn’t been obviously scarred yet – at least not in public.

The awaited China retaliation was the focus yesterday as they announced the raising of tariffs on a number of US goods from June 1st. To be fair it was hard to really say that the retaliation was much of a surprise however the rubber stamping perhaps confirmed that any hopes for de-escalation were out of the window for now. In addition to that and compounding the pain for markets were the comments from the editor of China’s Global Times Hu Xijin (who has quickly become a must follow on Twitter for his perceived connections) which grabbed equal if not more attention.Not long after the tariff news hit, Xijin tweeted “China may stop purchasing US agricultural products and energy, reduce Boeing orders and restrict US service trade with China. Many Chinese scholars are discussing the possibility of dumping US Treasuries and how to do it specifically”. Hardly the sort of message that implies China is willing to let this pass by then or attempt to compromise. The Treasury comment in particular started to raise alarm bells even if risk-off moves ensured 10yr rallied -6.6bps yesterday. DB’s Alan Ruskin did suggest yesterday that a much more likely approach is a slow structural bleed in China’s US bond holdings, as opposed to a dumping. So should China gets to the point of making real steps to reduce US financial holdings, it’s more likely to come in baby steps to test the waters, rather than any quick rash decisions, not least because China will try to calibrate any global impact, and its rebounding impact on themselves. The possible beneficiaries of such a move, including the yen, the euro, and gold, all rallied sharply after the story broke, outperforming the US dollar.

Not to be outdone, President Trump had already tweeted yesterday that there “is no reason for the US consumer to pay the tariffs” and that “China has taken advantage of the US for so many years that they are well ahead. Therefore, China should not retaliate – will only get worse”. Another tweet by the President said “I say openly to President Xi and all of my many friends in China that China will be hurt very badly if you don’t make a deal because companies will be forced to leave China for other countries”. Risk assets did stage a small attempt at a comeback in the afternoon after Trump said that he plans to meet with President Xi at the G20 next month and that he had not yet decided about when or if to implement the next tranche of tariffs on around $300bn more of Chinese imports. That followed comments from Secretary Mnuchin, who stated that negotiations with China are currently ongoing. Ultimately though, the market seems to be getting a bit more nervous of the more positive comments and rallying much less off the lows than it did last week.

The end result for markets yesterday was the second worst day of the year (behind the January 3rd plunge) for the S&P 500 and DOW, falling -2.41% and -2.38%, respectively. Only utilities (+1.11%) survived at a sector level with tech (-3.71%), consumer discretionary (-2.95%) and financials (-2.87%) seeing the biggest falls. At a stock level, 457 of the 505 stocks in the S&P closed lower. The NASDAQ however tumbled -3.41% for the biggest decline since December 4th last year. Even worse was the performance by the NYSE FANG index, which tumbled -4.40% for its worst day since October 24th, as Apple (-5.81%) shed $52.7bn in value alone yesterday and therefore putting it down -12.29% in just the last 10 days.Apple is acutely exposed to further trade escalation, both because it has a large exposure to China and because it has largely been spared any direct tariff pain so far in this trade war. The same applies, to a lesser extent, to the broader semiconductor industry, with the Philly semiconductor index down -4.73% yesterday and -10.30% over the last ten sessions. To put a cap on a rough day for tech, Uber stock traded down another -10.39% yesterday, meaning it has now shed -17.56% since its IPO on Friday.

After US markets closed yesterday, the USTR announced the timeline for the next tranche of tariffs, should the US decide to implement them. They will take written comments for the next month before holding a public hearing on June 17.The list of products to be tariffed includes a range of consumer technology products, including cell phones and televisions, justifying the earlier market moves in the tech sector. Industry groups are likely to increase their pressure on the US administration for fear of further disruptions, while the stakes are also raised for China. Trump told reporters at the White House early this morning that “we’ll let you know in about three to four weeks whether or not it (talks) was successful…but I have a feeling it’s (talks) going to be very successful”.

It appears that Trump’s comments have done enough to help markets stage a mini rebound overnight in Asia. The Nikkei for example is back to -0.65% after trading down as much as -2.07%, while there are also much more muted declines for the Shanghai Comp (-0.36%) and CSI 300 (-0.18%). The Kospi (+0.11%) has just turned positive also. The Hang Seng (-1.58%) has seen a heavier fall albeit partly playing catch up after being closed on Monday. In FX the CNH has also strengthened this morning by +0.26%, putting it at 6.894 having touched as high as 6.919, while EM FX more broadly is flat. Temporary respite then however it wouldn’t be a great surprise to see risk assets struggle once Europe walks in again.

Back to yesterday, where, in fairness, Europe looked almost calm in comparison.The STOXX 600 slumped a more palatable -1.21% although it is now back to the lowest level since March 8th. The DAX was down -1.52% while in EM land the MSCI EM index was hit to the tune of -3.33% and is now back to the lowest level since January 14th. In fact, the year-to-date gain for EM equities is now just +3.89%. Unsurprisingly vol climbed with the VIX finishing up +4.5pts and closing above 20 for the first time since January 8th. The V2X rose a more modest +0.9pts to 19.5.

It wasn’t much better for EM FX which is back into negative territory for the year following a -0.65% decline yesterday.The South African Rand (-1.20%), Turkish Lira (-1.25%), and Chilean Peso (-1.01%) saw the biggest moves over the last 24 hours. In contrast the Yen (+0.59%) and Swiss Franc (+0.54%) have earned their status as safe-haven currencies. The same is true for Treasuries (-6.6bps) as discussed earlier with 10yrs hitting 2.387% yesterday before closing at 2.402%, the lowest since March 28th. The front end really took off however with 2y yields rallying -8.2ps, making the curve +1.6bps steeper at 21.3bps. That being said, the 3m10y slope is now inverted again (only the sixth inversion at the close in nearly 11 years – the other five days being in March) while the 18m3m forward minus spot 3m – a favourite of the Fed – is back down at -34bps and approaching the March lows. A Fed cut by year-end is also now 76% priced in.Bunds (-2.5bps) also dropped to -0.072% – still a couple of basis points off the March lows – while the periphery struggled as a result of the wider risk off move, with BTPs spreads up +4.2bps to their widest level since February at 277bps. As for credit, US HY spreads were +19bps wider yesterday to 436bps, which puts the month to date move at +38bps. For some context, at the wides in early January spreads hit 537bps. In commodities Gold (+1.08%) was the obvious beneficiary while soybeans (-1.32%) and more notably cotton (-3.61%) got hit.

Yesterday our China economists put a 60% indicative probability that the two sides cannot reach a deal in May and tariffs will be imposed on the remaining Chinese exports, including mostly consumer goods.The team do expect the two sides to reach a deal eventually (possibly at the G20 in late June), however note that this could take a few months, meaning further weakening in the CNY is likely. See their report here .

Another negative geopolitical risk getting some renewed airtime yesterday was Brexit, with the situation continuing to deteriorate.Last week’s European Parliament poll showed a further drop in support for the Conservative party, who now poll in sixth place. That’s likely to make Tory MPs less willing to stomach a general election but also raises the pressure on PM May to resign. Separately, Labour party leaders said that they are unlikely to accept a compromise deal which does not include a second referendum. That crosses a red line for the Conservatives, so a cross-party deal is looking less and less likely. Elsewhere, BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg tweeted late last night that “Brexit talks are not in good health, but not dead yet, Olly Robbins is heading to Brussels tomorrow to talk about how, and how long it might take to change the political declaration IF there were to be an agreement”. We’re approaching crunch time here, so unless a deal can get finalized this week, the pressure on May will likely rise over the near term.

Economic data understandably took a backseat to the trade developments and sharp market moves, and to be fair there wasn’t a lot of important data regardless. The Bank of France’s business industry sentiment survey fell 1 point to 99, indicating below-average levels of optimism, which was actually the lowest since October 2016. Other than that, Bloomberg released the results of their latest European economic surveys. The only major change was to Italian growth, which consensus now forecasts to be 0.1% this year, which would be the lowest pace of growth since 2014.

To the day ahead now, which this morning kicks off in Germany with the final April CPI revisions (no change from the +1.0% mom flash reading expected). Shortly after that we’re due to get March and April employment data in the UK where the consensus is for no change in the unemployment rate of 3.9% and a small decline in weekly earnings to +3.3%. Also due out this morning is the March industrial production print for the Euro Area and the May ZEW survey in Germany. In the US today we’re due to get the April NFIB small business optimism reading and April import price index print. Away from the data the Fed’s Williams is due to speak at 8.15am BST this morning followed by George (5.45pm BST) and Daly (11pm BST) this evening. The ECB’s Villeroy is also scheduled to speak this morning.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  DOWN 20.10 POINTS OR 0.69%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 428.22 POINTS OR 1.50%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 124.55 POINTS OR 0.59%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .85%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8816 /Oil UP to 61.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.08 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9068 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8816 TRADE TALKS STILL ON//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP THREATENS TO RAISE RATES TO 25%

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA

 

 

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

end

3 C CHINA/CHINESE AFFAIRS

i)China/USA/

Jeffrey Snider outlines the warning signs that we must be cognizant of:  the low price of copper, the higher yen values, and lower CNY exchange and the scarcity of dollars floating around the globe:  all indicators of a massive global slowdown.  He states that we should not pay any attempt to the Chinese threatening to dump dollars

(courtesy Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra Investment Partners)

Alhambra: On China’s Empty Treasury ‘Nuke’ Threats

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

CNY, Its Doom Sisters, & Chinese Threats

It’s a tell-tale sign of someone who doesn’t know what they are talking about. In the realm of global currency systems, anyone who brings up China’s massive stockpile of US Treasury assets inevitably they assign all the power to the Chinese. Xi could destroy Trump if he wanted, bringing down the US in a righteous fit of trade war anger.

Not only is this totally wrong, it is ignorant of history. Recent history. Toward the end of November 2013, out of nowhere a report appeared in Chinese State media which said officials were reconsidering their foreign reserve allocations.

The country then spent the next several years shedding more than $900 billion in official reserve assets, more than half that in the form of reported UST holdings. The carnage, if the conventional story was right, should have massacred the market for US federal debt. Not only are UST yields lower today than when that announcement was first made, it was the Chinese economy indeed the entire Chinese system that had been transformed in between.

In late 2013, convention held China in high regard especially when it came to its purportedly invulnerable economy. But as they bled reserve assets, that view has shifted entirely. In 2019, the Chinese are leading the world in economic weakness.

In announcing that they would avoid UST’s five and a half years ago, what the Chinese were up to was very different. They were indirectly warning everyone, albeit in their own geopolitical fashion. I wrote in January last year when this “threat” last came up:

How, then, do we view the PBOC’s November 20, 2013, announcement? Over time, I began to see it as more like desperation, the kind of “oh we meant to do that” public statement that is oftentimes crafted only to reassure the public that what turned out to be a big negative was really what they meant to do all along. I have come to believe that by late in that year, Chinese officials knew what was coming (they already had a taste) and were trying to get ahead of the “rising dollar” so that it might not spiral, for expectations, anyway, out of their control (with the media playing right into it, the exact point of my March 2014 article).

In other words, they had some idea about what was about to be unleashed – and that it was aimed squarely at China. I think they underestimated its scale and depth, certainly the duration, but in terms of our idiot officials versus theirs, theirs were that much further ahead not that it made much of a difference in the end.

We all suffer for the lack of effective understanding about global reserve currency.

In escalating trade war sparring, another such media report has been issued just today. The Chinese have hinted how they are once more thinking they might sell their UST’s. Predictably, our media, quoting all the right “bond king” experts, sees it as a powerful threat.

For one, a Chinese reduction of Treasurys [sic] could weaken the dollar and make U.S multinationals more competitive. For another, Treasury yields would rise and thus cause prices to fall, lowering the value of China’s portfolio…

“To me, that is the biggest worry. This is really the biggest weapon they have,” said Sung Won Sohn, professor of economics at Loyola Marymount University and president of SS Economics. “They need to do more to counter the United States. So if push comes to shove, that’s what they are going to resort to.”

Again, were these people not paying the smallest bit of attention to what was going on the last five years? Did the dollar weaken as UST’s “disappeared” from reported Chinese custody? Were Treasury yields shooting upward as they did?

No. In fact, it was the opposite in each of those. The dollar goes up, yields go down, and all because of what the Chinese are actually saying. Even in 2017, everything was in reverse: UST yields rose because of reflation, the dollar fell, and China added a huge amount of UST’s while they did. Things get bad when Treasuries vanish from China’s official hands.

The fact that they are attempting to take credit, almost, ahead of time merely confirms the weak and desperate position they find for themselves in 2019. Just like 2013 and to a lesser extent January 2018. CNY DOWN = BAD, for China, certainly, but not just in China.

Funny timing, CNY and UST’s. It’s a damn roadmap to understanding how the global system actually works. You just have to stop listening to Economists and central bankers (redundant).

Just in time for China’s latest existential eurodollar threat, not only is CNY falling (right on schedule) it is being joined by a few other of its doom sisters. By Economists’ reckoning, UST yields should be surging higher given what has been threatened. Who is going to keep buying up the safest, most liquid instruments in the world if China can’t…I mean won’t?

Not only is the UST curve smashing downward, it’s further and further into rate cut territoryYou can only conclude that something bad globally will have to happen to get Jay Powell to really embarrass himself not two years into his tenure.

Treasury yields are being joined, confirmed, in this latest bout of fear by both copper and JPY. Copper prices had boarded the “dovish” train in early January. They held up for the most part even in March as the next step in the global downturn developed. Since the end of April, though, in tandem with CNY and UST yields, Dr. Copper is coming back into the deflation column.

JPY isn’t what it used to be in terms of a global monetary center. The Japanese, somewhat prudently, have exhumed themselves from the mess of global eurodollar redistribution – largely because of what’s really going on in China.

Still, JPY can be an important short run signal. It’s much the same as 2015; whenever JPY rises, look out. The latest runup puts the yen in the same place as copper, CNY, falling yields, inverting curves, almost certain US rate cuts, etc.

Precisely the same as what ends up with China “selling” even more UST’s. Global eurodollar shortage. The Chinese government can make threats, but it’s pretty clear who it is that is really being threatened.

It’s the eurodollar’s world, we are all just trying to live in it.

end

Although both Trump and Chinese leaders toned down the rhetoric  today which caused the European and USA markets to rise, the Chinese media seem very upset with the USA.  They are calling for a people’s war against the USA and vowing to fight for a “New World”

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Calls For “People’s War” Against The US, Vows To “Fight For A New World”

While market mood has shifted diametrically from yesterday, with stocks sharply higher on Tuesday following what has widely been interpreted as conciliatory comments from both president Trump and various members of China’s ruling elite, one would be hard pressed to find any de-escalation amid the Chinese press commentaries written in the aftermath of the latest escalation in trade war between the US and China.

In a series of editorials and op-ed articles published Monday and Tuesday, Chinese state media slammed what it labeled the Trump administration’s “greed and arrogance“, called for a “people’s war” targeting the US “with precision” as China begins a “fight for a new world.”

“The most important thing is that in the China-US trade war, the US side fights for greed and arrogance … and morale will break at any point. The Chinese side is fighting back to protect its legitimate interests,” the nationalist, state-owned Global Times tabloid wrote .

Urging indirect boycott of US goods and services, the editorial slammed Trump and suggested a nation-wide uprising against the US aggression: “The trade war in the US is the creation of one person and one administration, but it affects that country’s entire population. In China, the entire country and all its people are being threatened. For us, this is a real ‘people’s war.'” Whether this means a renewed collapse in Chinese iPhone sales remains to be seen – for confirmation, watch for a new guidance cut from Apple in the coming days.

The Global Times  also accused the Trump administration of misleading Americans about the victims of US tariffs. It singled out Larry Kudlow’s interview on “Fox News Sunday” in which Trump’s top economic advisor said that US consumers would also suffer from the trade war, contradicting Trump’s claim that China would foot the bill.

More than just a retaliation to “unprovoked” US aggression, China now sees its response as a crusade against the western style of life. During a prime time broadcast on Monday, CNN reported that the state broadcaster CCTV also aired a statement saying that China would “fight for a new world.”

“As President Xi Jinping pointed out, the Chinese economy is a sea, not a small pond,” anchor Kang Hui said on his 7 p.m. news show. “A rainstorm can destroy a small pond, but it cannot harm the sea. After numerous storms, the sea is still there.” Hui concluded echoing a popular refrain, that “China…doesn’t want to fight, but it is not afraid to fight.”

The Global Times also mocked Trump’s suggestion that the tariff hike would “force companies to leave China”, stating that “the consumption capabilities and market consumption potential driven by demand are what foreign companies value most when they come to China.”

As a result, “the White House might as well try to call on American companies such as General Motors, Ford, Apple, McDonald’s and Coca-Cola to leave China. Will any of them follow?

The editorial also hinted that more retaliations are coming, saying that “China has plenty of countermeasures” and telling its readers that “the US tariff moves are very much like spraying bullets. They will cause a lot of self-inflicted harm and are hard to sustain in the long term. China, on the other hand, is going to aim with precision, trying to avoid hurting itself.”

In an amusing twist, China then accused Trump of spinning and “seeking to beautify the trade war”, while Beijing has been “blunt about the difficulties and losses that the trade war will bring to the Chinese economy.”

The conclusion: “the Chinese side is obviously more realistic while the US is falsifying. This will, to a large extent, influence how the two countries digest the trade war impacts.”

Whatever side of the ideological divide one finds themselves, this is hardly the rhetoric that will allow China to reach a quick and painless compromise.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY

Again, Salvini aggravates Brussels:  this time Italy declares wars on boats rescuing immigrants

(courtesy zero hedge)

Italy “Declares War On NGOs” – Will Fine Boats For Rescuing Immigrants

It would appear that Italy’s interior minister Matteo Salvini has escalated his widely-supported anti-immigrant stance, by forcing George Soros and his NGO pals to put their money where their virtue-signaling mouths are…

The Guardian’s Lorenzo Tondo reports that Italy’s government is planning to issue a decree that would mean NGO rescue boats would be fined up to €5,500 (£4,760) for each migrant they disembark on to Italian soil.

As a reminder, Francesca Totolo recently noted in her latest book:

“… all those international NGOs such as Avaaz, Oxfam, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and many others have certainly one thing in common: their financial source, which is Soros. Their role has been, and continues to be, making the Italian people feel guilty if they don’t accept immigrants: legal or illegal, they must be accepted no matter what. So these NGOs, or modern Charons as I like to call them, have effectively – directly or indirectly – smuggled into Italy something like 700.000 people over the last few years. It must be understood, by all means, that something like this is a planned operation since its very beginning.

...as early as 2008 the association “carta di Roma” was founded in Rome. It can be considered the first NGO directly financed by Soros in Italy. What is the purpose of this “association of journalists”? To “promote correct information about immigrants, refugees, asylum-seekers in Italy”. Doesn’t that make you inevitably think that Soros knew as early as 2008 what would happen three years later in Libya and was therefore paving the way for a “change of the paradigm”?”

As one would expect, aid groups said the planned decree from Matteo Salvini amounted to a “declaration of war against the NGOs who are saving lives at sea”.

The new decree reinforces the powers of the ministry of the interior in the matter of immigration and has the objective of putting an end to the NGO rescues. Médecins Sans Frontières, for example, would have had to pay €440m for saving 80,000 people if the decree had been in place during the last three years.

“The new decree is threatening legal principles and the duty of saving lives,” said Claudia Lodesani, president of MSF Italy. “It is like fining ambulances for carrying patients to the hospital.”

“It shows the weakness of a government that is not able to guarantee control through democratic means and rather constantly feels the need to resort to the threat of using law enforcement.”

Salvini has repeatedly declared Italian waters closed to NGO rescue vessels. Several boats have been left stranded at sea because of this hardline approach, which is partly designed to force other parts of Europe to take in more people.

The NGO ship Sea-Watch 3 is currently sailing across the Mediterranean towards Libya.

“They better not think of putting migrants on board,” said Salvini.

“We’ll stop them by any means necessary.”

END

The war between Salvini and Brussels intensifies as our Italian’s defacto leader is now willing to break EU budget rules.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks, Italian Bonds Slide As Salvini Says Italy “Willing To Break EU Budget Rules”

Brussels won’t like this.

Matteo Salvini, a deputy prime minister, leader of Italy’s populist League Party, and perhaps the most powerful figure in the Italian government, sent the euro reeling and Italian bond yields surging Tuesday when he said his country is ready to break EU fiscal rules governing the size of its budget deficit.

EURUSD

Italy

Italy’s benchmark FTSE MIB trimmed earlier gains to 0.5% from 1% earlier as a 10-year government bond yield moved higher.

end

 

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/

A little background to this story:  Israel made this very big discovery of natural gas and some oil off its coast several years ago.  They knew that the discovery was heading onto Cyprus and told sovereign Cyprus on the nature of that discovery.  You will recall that Cyprus had a civil war in 1974 between Greece and Turkey whereby an armistice was established in that Northern Cyprus would be governed by Turkish Cypriots and the rest of the country by Greek Cypriots.  The capital Nicosia  would be under control of Greek Cypriots.  Turkey never recognized the Greek overthrow of Cyprus and now that a massive amount of gas has been discovered and badly needed by Turkey, you can now see why Turkey is ready to go to war over this.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Turkey Flexes In “Largest Ever” East-Med Naval Drills Amid Cypriot Oil & Gas Grab

 

Turkey kicked off its “largest ever” military drills conducted in the Mediterranean and Aegean Seas on Monday. Though the drills are pre-scheduled “annual” exercises, the massively beefed up Turkish naval presence comes as Cyprus is pressing the EU to address illegal Turkish oil and gas drilling inside Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone.

Turkish state-run TRT World described the exercise known as “Sea Wolf 2019” as including a total of 131 warships, 57 warplanes and 33 helicopters — the largest force deployment in the exercise’s history.

 

Turkish Navy file photo

The games will extend to the Black Sea as well, and is set to run through May 25; it will further involve “submarines, frigates, naval artilleries, armed UAVs, as well as search and rescue units” engaging in “strategic and operational exercises with scenarios similar to crisis-tension situations and wartime,” according to Turkish sources.

The west supported Greek Cypriot government and Turkey – the latter which occupies northern Cyprus – have overlapping claims of jurisdiction for offshore oil and gas research in the natural gas-rich eastern Mediterranean.

Turkey has laid claim to a waters extending a whopping 200 miles from its coast, brazenly asserting ownership over a swathe of the Mediterranean that even cuts into Greece’s exclusive economic zone. Ankara has in the past demanded that Cyprus formally recognize the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (since 1974) and allow it to share revenues from Cypriot gas exploration.

Embedded video

Ali Osman Özkök@Ozkok_A

As a sign of strength, has launched new naval exercises as it has begun drilling for near . Turkey signals to , the and the that it is serious in defending its interests. 131 warships, 57 planes and 33 helicopters participate.

Last week the president of Cyprus Nicos Anastasiades slammed Turkey for what he called the “unprecedented escalation of illegal action” which constitutes a “second invasion” in the eastern Mediterranean

Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has reportedly been provocatively sending  warships in support of gas exploration and drilling vessels near Cypriot waters over the past months in order to ward off foreign competition to oil and gas research, according to Cypriot officials, also seeking to bar Cypriot ships and planes from freely traversing its own European recognized waters.

Turkish state media footage of the games as they kick off Monday.

On Monday TRT World reported separately just as the war games were kicking off:

Ankara plans to start drilling near the island of Cyprus, in a project that Turkey says is within the rights of his country.

Elaborating on the issue, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, “The legitimate rights of Turkey and the Northern Cypriot Turks over energy resources in the eastern Mediterranean are not open for argument. Our country is determined to defend its rights and those of Turkish Cypriots. We expect NATO to respect Turkey’s rights in this process and support us in preventing tensions.”

The extensive Turkish claims around Cyprus have been condemned by the US, European Union, and Egypt, with NATO officials recently signalling to Turkey that it was out of line.

But Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu confirmed early this month that “we are starting drilling” in the region, perceiving that EU and NATO leadership have merely long paid lip service to Cypriot and Greek complaints.

Should the Turkish military attempt to enforce its drilling claims and run up against Cypriot and Greek vessels, it could spark a deadly encounter which would force the EU and NATO to finally weigh in more forcefully.

Turkey has been frequently flexing its military might amid the territorial showdown, conducting the “Blue Homeland” drills between Feb. 27 and March 8 earlier this year.

So this week’s massive naval exercise will be the second in only a few months, just as EU leaders are planning to consider Cyprus’ allegations during meetings at the end of May and in June.

end

IRAN

Reuters report that Iranian proxies or Iranians themselves damaged those ships in UAE waters

(courtesy Reuters)

US Official – Iran or Iranian Proxies Damaged Ships in UAE Waters – Report

© REUTERS / Satish Kumar

MIDDLE EAST

Get short URL
36882

US officials said Monday that initial assessments of an incident over the weekend in which four oil tankers were damaged by explosions in Emirati waters point to Iranian involvement.

Four oil tankers — two Saudi, one Emirati and one Norwegian — off the coast of the Fujairah, in the United Arab Emirates, suffered on Sunday what the UAE Foreign Ministry called “sabotage operations.” The explosion blew a five-to-10 foot hole in each ship near or just below the water line, a US military team told AP Monday.

“Iranian or Iranian-backed proxies” are believed to be behind the attack, according to US officials.

Fujairah is Abu Dhabi’s only major port on the Arabian Sea. In the event of war, Tehran has already threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, immediately strangling 20% of world seaborne oil trade, making Fujairah of great strategic importance.

While the explosions weakened the structures of the four vessels, none suffered any injuries or deaths and no oil was leaked from the ships, Sputnik noted.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi earlier on Monday called the incident “worrisome and dreadful,” adamantly denying Tehran’s involvement.

“Such incidents have a negative impact on maritime transportation security,” Mousavi said, decrying the incident whether it was “orchestrated by ill-wishers” or “adventurism by foreigners.”

The US has deployed extensive military forces to the region in recent days, with nuclear-capable B-52 bombers arriving in Qatar and the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln sailing into the region as well. Last month, US President Donald Trump declared Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a terrorist entity, claiming the group was responsible for US service member deaths in Syria and Iraq.

In early August 1964, a similar incident occurred in the Gulf of Tonkin, off the coast of North Vietnam. Amid another massive US military buildup off the coast of a country Washington was threatening with military action, reports of attacks on US ships by North Vietnamese gunboats led to the US Congress authorizing the use of military force against Hanoi in response to the provocations.

However, it was later revealed that no such attack ever happened. A US National Security Agency internal memo declassified in 2005 revealed that no North Vietnamese ships were present at that time.

END

IRAN/USA

A leaked document plans for a huge 120,000 deployment of troops to counter Iran.  Trump later refuted this story as fake news

(courtesy zerohedge)

Leaked Pentagon Plan Calls For 120,000 Troops To Counter Iran 

As Michael Pompeo travels to Brussels to discuss the Iranian threat amid a flare-up in tensions that has brought the US to the brink of an armed conflict, the New York Times has published details from a confidential military plan presented to top national security officials that envisions sending as many as 120,000 troops to the Middle East should Iran attack American forces or start ramping up work on nuclear weapons (something it has promised to do if its European partners don’t meet their commitments under the Iran deal).

Bolton

Though the revised plan – it had been modified to incorporate suggestions from John Bolton – doesn’t include plans for a land invasion, it does reflect “the influence of Mr. Bolton, one of the administration’s most virulent Iran hawks, whose push for confrontation with Tehran was ignored more than a decade ago by President George W Bush.”

It’s unclear whether Trump himself has seen, or been briefed on, the plan. Asked about it, Trump said “we’ll see what happens with Iran. If they do anything, it would be a very bad mistake.”

Here are a few key details from the plan according to more than a half-dozen senior administration officials who spoke with the NYT:

  • The 120,000 troops called for in the plan would be close to the size of the force that invaded Iraq in 2003. The reversal of the US troop presence in the region under Obama and Trump has reportedly emboldened leaders in Tehran and the IRGC that there’s no appetite in the US for a war with Iran. Deploying this many troops would take weeks or months. 
  • The most likely trigger for a US military response is still an attack by the IRGC The guard’s fleet of small boats has a history of approaching American Navy ships at high speed. Though the plan includes provisions for a US response if Iran once again starts stockpiling nuclear fuel. If Iran does start stockpiling enriched uranium again, the US would have more than a year to formulate a more coherent response, since it would take at least that long for Iran to stockpile anything close to enough to fashion a weapon.
  • Cyberweapons would be used to paralyze the Iranian economy during the opening salvo of the conflict, in the hopes that this would be enough to cripple Iran before any bombs were dropped. Such an operation would call for “implants” or “beacons” inside US networks. Though, given Iran’s increasingly sophisticated cyberweapons, such an attack would still pose “significant risks.”
  • This is not the first time since joining the administration that Bolton has sought updated plans for an invasion of Iran. Though it’s widely believed that the president remains opposed to such an incursion. Bolton requested an update after Iranian-backed militants fired three mortar shells into an empty lot on the grounds of the US embassy in Baghdad.
  • One of the options offered up as a proportional response was a strike on a Iranian military facility that would have been “mostly symbolic.”

While a war with Iran still seems unlikely, if Iran starts stockpiling enriched uranium again as it has threatened to do, it could give Bolton and his fellow neocons exactly the opening they need to successfully push for a military intervention.

END

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

 

Cuba

Crisis begins in Cuba as there is widespread rationing of food: so much for socialism

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Crisis Begins: Cuba Begins Widespread Rationing Due To Shortages 

Last month, the Trump administration imposed new sanctions on Cuba and Venezuela, attempting to tighten the vice on Havana to end its support for Venezuelan president, Nicolas Maduro. As a result, Cuba launched widespread rationing of staple foods and hygiene products due to shortages triggered by US trade embargosreported Al Jazeera.

After a month of shortages, Cuban authorities announced Friday the rationed sale of chicken, eggs, rice, beans, soap, and other essential items, “to avoid hoarding and ensure greater access.”

Commerce Minister Betsy Díaz told the Cuban News Agency that rationing would be used to deal with shortages of staple foods. Díaz condemned the Trump administration for triggering the latest crisis developing throughout the country.

“Our mission is to fracture all the measures the US government imposes, and today we are setting priorities,”Diaz said on a state-run media broadcast.

Cuba imports approximately two-thirds of its food and small shortages have been common throughout the years. In recent weeks, many products have been missing from store shelves for days, and long lines have sprung up with many waiting for scarce products like chicken and beans.

Amid the developing economic crisis on the Caribbean island, Cuban youth have flooded onto social media under the hashtag #lacolachallenge (queue challenge) to shed light on the shortage.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

MaCC@MaCC60217774

en la Casa Azul provincia de Las Tunas, cola perenne, inmortal, infinita…como el hambre y la desesperación de los cubanos.

Chawy@Chawy1348

aunque esta es la mejor cola, la de irse de una vez 😁

Yoani Sánchez 🇨🇺

@yoanisanchez

: El único reto 100% cubano ha nacido y el desafío es inundar las redes con las largas filas para comprar en la Isla. http://ow.ly/Paxu30oHiri

Many Cubans find themselves standing in line for hours, waiting for products to arrive, a problem the government has blamed on “hoarders.”

“The country’s going through a tough moment. This is the right response. Without this, there’ll be hoarders. I just got out of work and I was able to buy hot dogs,” said Lazara Garcia, a 56-year-old tobacco-factory worker.

Product rationing has already begun in many municipalities across the island, with government-run grocery stores currently limiting bottles of cooking oil.

Cuban officials admitted that a liquidity crunch has hit the country after commercial debt hit $ 1.5 billion with suppliers late last year, as well as the renewed US sanctions, have complicated things for the centrally planned government.

“We depend on imports that come from the United States, and this has meant that we have had to look for alternatives to be able to secure the product in the market,” Díaz told local media.

It seems that an economic crisis is unfolding in Cuba and the dangers are beginning to emerge with food shortages across the country.

end

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

VENEZUELA

 

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1234 UP .0002 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.66 DOWN 0.502 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2948   DOWN   0.0015  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3463 DOWN .0016 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 2 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  RISING to 1.1234 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 20.10 POINTS OR 0.69% 

 

 

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 428.22 POINTS OR 1.50% 

 

 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .85%// EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 124.55 POINTS OR 0.59% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 428.22 POINTS OR 1.50%

 

 

 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.10 POINTS OR 0.69% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .85% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 124.55  POINTS OR 0.59%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1296.75

silver:$14.65

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.41% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.85 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 97.35 DOWN 5 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.14%  DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.05%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from MONDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.97% DOWN 2   IN basis point yield from MONDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.72 UP 2  POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 175 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS –.07%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.79% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1204  DOWN     .0027 or 27 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.71 UP .551 OR YEN DOWN 55  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2909 DOWN .0054 POUND DOWN 54  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 7 basis points to 1.3471

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8752    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9035  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.0157 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.05%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.42 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.86 UP 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.53  UP 21  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 67.47  0.94%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 96.72 POINTS OR 0.81%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 73.33 POINTS OR 1.39%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 6,.10 POINTS or 0.76%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 255.10 POINTS OR 1.24%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 61.89 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 71.31 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.00  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.42 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 42 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.07 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  61.70

 

 

BRENT :  71,15

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.41…   VERY DEADLY// invalids the dow/nasdaq rise

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.85..VERY DEADLY/invalidates the dow/nasdaq rise

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1208 ( DOWN 24   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.58 UP .425 (YEN DOWN 43 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.52 UP 20 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.2909 DOWN 54  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.0337

 

the Russian rouble 64,97   UP 0.45 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 45 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3462 UP 17 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8752  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly.

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.90337 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly.

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.07%

 

The Dow closed  UP 207.06 POINTS OR 2.28%

 

NASDAQ closed UP  87.47 POINTS OR 1.14%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  18.27 CLOSED DOWN 2.28

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.518%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.527

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Dead. Cat. Bounce?

Stocks are up so everything must be awesome again, right?

 

Despite an early session bid, China stocks ended lower once again..

Despite an early session bid, China stocks ended lower once again…

 

European markets were much more excited with Italy soaring along with France on the day erasing Monday’s losses…

 

China has caught back down to US and Europe’s YTD performance…

 

US Equity markets rallied back above the “constructive” rally point from Friday today as a lack of negative things from China and US as well no inflationary fears from import/export data sent markets higher…

 

Trannies were the best performers in cash markets with Dow and S&P laggards…

 

Another dead cat bounce?

 

“Most Shorted” stocks surged today, recovering around half of yesterday’s losses…

 

All the major US indices moved back above key technical support once again.

FANG Stocks rebounded extremely modestly on the day…

 

Bonds and stocks have traded almost perfectly in sync through this recent chaos…

 

Treasury yields inched higher on the day…

 

The dollar extended its gains from yesterday…

 

Offshore Yuan went nowhere today, well below the Yuan Fix…

 

Ripple soared today as most of the major cryptos held on to gains…

 

Bitcoin flash-crashed around the Asia open overnight, but scrambled back above $8000

 

Oil prices rebounded today as mideast tension rose (ahead of tonight’s inventory data), Copper and silver were flat and gold was weaker…

 

Gold slipped back below $1300…

 

 

Finally, it appears the liquidity party may be over for now…

 

end

Market trading: Today  //Early morning

Futures, Yuan Jump After Trump Trade Comments

It seems the algos will never learn.

US equity futures and offshore yuan are both rising after President Trump said at an event at The White House that “he feels China talks will be successful,” adding that “we will know in 3-4 weeks.”

Johnny 5 loves that news…

Up 120 so far…

And Yuan’s move was higher beta…

ii)Market data/

this is not what the Fed wants to see:  USA import, export prices disappoint as China’s deflationary impulse hits a 12 year low

In a nutshell, China is sending deflation throughout the globe due to its excess capacity

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Import, Export Prices Disappoint As China’s Deflationary Impulse Hits 12-Year Low

Having rebounded, albeit modestly, in February and March, import and export prices were both expected to accelerate in April but instead both import and export price gains slowed.

Import Prices fell 0.2% YoY (+0.7% exp) and Export prices rose just 0.2% YoY (+0.6% exp)

 

Ex-Petroleum things are considerably more ugly, dropping 0.6% MoM and -1.0% YoY – the weakest since July 2016…

 

And China is exporting deflation at its strongest since October 2007…

So, for now, The Fed has some breathing room.

END

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

USA posts details on the 300 billion dollars of remaining goods to be tariffed.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

US Posts Full Details Of Tariffs On Remaining $300 Billion In Chinese Trade

After Trump revealed late on Friday that the US would proceed with raising 25% tariffs on the remaining roughly $300 billion in Chinese exports, the next major development as we noted earlier today…

zerohedge@zerohedge

Next market-moving headline: US announces tariffs on $300BN of remaining Chinese exports

… was the official triggering of such tariffs, which as Goldman calculated over the weekend, threatens to send inflation sharply higher and lead to another round of aggressive Chinese escalation, which would likely result in tumbling stocks.

But before that happens, the office of the US Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, was expected to file a request for public comments and hold a hearing on the $300 billion in new proposed 25% tariffs. That’s precisely what happened late on Monday, when the USTR published a 142 report on this latest Tariff action, and announced this hearing would take place June 17, with the following summary information:

In accordance with the direction of the President, the U.S. Trade Representative (Trade Representative) proposes a modification of the action being taken in this Section 301 investigation of the acts, policies, and practices of the Government of China related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation. The proposed modification is to take further action in the form of an additional ad valorem duty of up to 25 percent on products of China with an annual trade value of approximately $300 billion. The products subject to this proposed modification are classified in the HTSUS subheadings set out in the Annex to this notice. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) is seeking public comment and will hold a public hearing regarding this proposed modification.

The latest tariff list was published just a few hours after the Chinese Ministry of Finance unveiled its own retaliation to the hiking of tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200BN in Chinese exports (“Tranche 3”). China’s new rate of 25% matches that of the US duty, and will apply to 2,493 U.S. products, with other goods subject to duties ranging from 5% to 20%. The US goods affected range from small aircraft, computers, and textiles to chemicals, meat, wheat, wine and LNG. Some auto parts remain exempted from retaliatory charges. Imports of cars aren’t affected, as an extra duty of 25% from a separate list was suspended during the negotiations as a sign of goodwill.

As a reminder, the US has already pulled the trigger on 3 specific tranches of tariff actions against China, summarized in the following diagram from Rabobank:

The proposed action would be the 4th and Final Tariff Tranche (shown above the in the light blue bubble with the question market), and would target primarily consumer goods.

Specifically, the proposed action would take the place of “an additional ad valorem duty of up to 25 percent on products of China covered in the list of 3,805 full and partial tariff subheadings set out in the Annex to this notice. The proposed product list has an approximate annual trade value of $300 billion. The proposed product list covers essentially all products not currently covered by action in this investigation. The proposed product list excludes pharmaceuticals, certain pharmaceutical inputs, select medical goods, rare earth materials, and critical minerals. Product exclusions granted by the Trade Representative on prior tranches from this investigation will not be affected.

For those who are pressed for time to read through the entire list, Deutsche Bank explained earlier that the remaining Chinese exports are significantly different from the other Chinese exports, as they include mostly consumer goods such as smartphones, computers, and textiles, and US consumers are more dependent on China for these goods. These are shown in the red box below:

Additionally, Goldman economists noted that imports from China account for a much larger share of total imports in the categories covered by Tranche 4 than in prior rounds. For example, computers, cell phones, and toys are some of the largest categories in Tranche 4, and China accounts for 80% or more of total US imports of each product group. This, according to Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius, “could make it harder for US importers to source from other countries not affected by the new tariffs.”

It also means that if the US does, in fact, implement the full tariffs as proposed, US consumer will be facing much higher inflation, and potentially force the Fed to hike rates soon, prompting fresh fury from the US president.

The full USTR document is below (pdf link).

END

A USA trade official states that a trade deal is not even close:  It could be in for a long trade war with China.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Senior Admin Official: “A Trade Deal Isn’t Close; US Could Be In For A Long Trade War”

Despite a flurry of meandering hot-then-cold trade war tweets from President Trump, US futures have been powering higher all morning. But then along came Axios to pour cold water all over the growing trade-deal optimism after the stock market’s worst one-day selloff since January.

Trump

According to Axios, senior administration officials told senior White House reporter Jonathan Swan that a trade deal with China “isn’t close” and that the US “could be in for a long trade war.”

Swans’ sources said the differences between the two sides “are so profound taht, based on his read of the situation, he can’t see the fight getting resolved before the end of the year.”

That’s a much longer timeline than the three-four weeks Trump touted Monday night, who touted the possibility that the a meeting with President Xi at the G-20 in Japan next month could yield an agreement.

The White House is already moving ahead with plans to slap tariffs of up to 25% on the remaining ~$300 billion in Chinese imports that aren’t already subject to trade-war related tariffs.

Axios summed up the White House view on China’s position as follows: Beijing only responds to shows of brute force. Trump is also convinced that China will suffer more than the US, since Americans buy more Chinese products than the other way around, but over the weekend, Larry Kudlow said both sides will suffer.

Asked whether Trump “actually believes” that China pays the tariffs and not US consumers, they replied: “Yes, that’s what he actually believes.”

“There’s little point trying to persuade Trump otherwise, because his belief in tariffs is “like theology.”

END

Another indicator that the trade deal is a long way off:  Trump: “we will make a deal with China when the time is right”

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump: We Will Make A Deal With China “When The Time Is Right”

Update (7:40 am ET): In yet another attempt to reassure restive farmers in the red states and swing states that helped propel Trump to victory, the president assured them that “our great Patriot Farmers” will be one of “the biggest beneficiaries of what is happening now.” He then alluded to the planned farm “bailout”, saying the government would be “making p the difference based on a very high China buy” and that this money would “come from the massive Tariffs being paid to the United States.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Our great Patriot Farmers will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of what is happening now. Hopefully China will do us the honor of continuing to buy our great farm product, the best, but if not your Country will be making up the difference based on a very high China buy……

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….This money will come from the massive Tariffs being paid to the United States for allowing China, and others, to do business with us. The Farmers have been “forgotten” for many years. Their time is now!

* * *

Update (7:20 am ET): Capping off a flurry of mostly belligerent tweets about the ongoing trade negotiations with China, Trump ended on an optimistic note, causing stock futures to tick higher, by saying the US will make a deal with China “when the time is right.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

When the time is right we will make a deal with China. My respect and friendship with President Xi is unlimited but, as I have told him many times before, this must be a great deal for the United States or it just doesn’t make any sense. We have to be allowed to make up some…..

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….of the tremendous ground we have lost to China on Trade since the ridiculous one sided formation of the WTO. It will all happen, and much faster than people think!

* * *

As US markets struggled to shake off Monday’s punishing selloff, President Trump – who said last night that he expects the trade war to be resolved within three or four weeks – tweeted early Tuesday about how tariffs “rebuilt” the American steel industry.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

In one year Tariffs have rebuilt our Steel Industry – it is booming! We placed a 25% Tariff on “dumped” steel from China & other countries, and we now have a big and growing industry. We had to save Steel for our defense and auto industries, both of which are coming back strong!

Trump’s tweet about the steel tariff comes as more Republicans in Congress press Trump to abandon the tariffs on steel and aluminum that were his first major step in the trade war, with some arguing that US consumers and businesses are paying more than $900,000 a year for every job saved or created by Trump’s steel tariffs. But as Trump sees it, metals tariffs are necessary to preserve the domestic steel industry for national security reasons, as well as for creating well-paying manufacturing jobs.

Some had hoped Trump would remove the tariffs, at least on Canada and Mexico, after USMCA negotiations produced a deal, but that hasn’t happened.

Trump followed his steel tweet up with a series of tweets about Washington’s “fantastic” negotiating position. Companies can “make your product at home in the USA and there is no Tariff. Many companies are leaving China so that they will be more competitive for USA buyers. We are now a much bigger economy than China, and have substantially increased in size since the great 2016 election.”

Trump added that “we are the ‘piggy bank’that everyone wants to raid”…”NO MORE!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

China buys MUCH less from us than we buy from them, by almost 500 Billion Dollars, so we are in a fantastic position. Make your product at home in the USA and there is no Tariff. You can also buy from a non-Tariffed country instead of China. Many companies are leaving China…..

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….so that they will be more competitive for USA buyers. We are now a much bigger economy than China, and have substantially increased in size since the great 2016 Election. We are the “piggy bank” that everyone wants to raid and take advantage of. NO MORE!

In another batch of tweets, Trump boasted that “we could make a deal with China tomorrow”…”but the last time we were close they wanted to renegotiate the deal. No way! We are in a much better position now..”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

We can make a deal with China tomorrow, before their companies start leaving so as not to lose USA business, but the last time we were close they wanted to renegotiate the deal. No way! We are in a much better position now than any deal we could have made. Will be taking in…..

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Billions of Dollars, and moving jobs back to the USA where they belong. Other countries are already negotiating with us because they don’t want this to happen to them. They must be a part of USA action. This should have been done by our leaders many years ago. Enjoy!

end
This is one of the big casualties of the trade war:  soybean prices crash to decade lows.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Farm Crisis: Soybeans Crash To Decade-Low As Trade War Intensifies

Soybean futures fell 25% in 50 weeks since the inception of President Trump’s trade war early last summer.

CBOT Soybeans futures plunged to their lowest level in a decade as China on Monday said it would raise tariffs on $60 billion in US goods in retaliation for Trump’s decision on Friday to raise duties on $200 billion in Chinese products to 25% from 10%. The deepening trade war has pushed American farmers onto the verge of disaster.

The escalation in the trade war doesn’t directly affect agricultural products since most were already facing a 25% tariff rate in China last year. But the news on Monday sent soybean prices tumbling.

CBOT Soybeans broke below $8 per bushel on Trump’s escalation of the trade war last week, plunged to $7.81 per bushel on the retaliatory tariff increases from China.

Refinitiv trade flows indicate the Sino-American trade war has cut over 80% of US soybean exports to China so far this market year (September-August).

“Clearly, there’s uncertainty about where we’re going from here,” St. Louis-based independent analyst Ken Morrison told Bloomberg. “Both parties have backed themselves into a corner.”

The breakdown in negotiations comes at a time when soybean sales are decreasing, and huge stockpiles are building, have resulted in many farmers teetering on the verge of bankruptcy.

Morrison said China could cancel the 7.4 million metric tons of beans that have not yet been shipped, according to the US Department of Agriculture data.

The collapse in negotiations has also led Trump to pledge $15 billion worth of agricultural product purchases from American farmers through the Commodity Credit Corp., a federal agency given authority during the Great Depression to stabilize prices. Given the large stockpiles, it’s still unclear how government purchases of soybeans would resolve the current supply overhang.

Farmers are some of Trump’s key supporters, they’ve been big advocates of getting a better trade deal with Beijing, but now many are running out of patience as the Midwest goes bankrupt.

“The President of the United States owes farmers like myself some type of plan of action,” John Wesley Boyd Jr., a soybean farmer in Baskerville, Virginia, told CNN’s Brianna Keilar on Monday.

“Farmers were his base. They helped elect this president … and now he’s turning his back on America’s farmers when we need him the most,” he added.

John Heisdorffer, an Iowa soybean farmer and chairman of the American Soybean Association, planted a large crop of corn and soybean earlier this month, figuring a trade deal was immient.

“We kept hearing that talks were going well, it sure looked like this was all going to be taken care of soon,” he said. Now, he added, “there’s a lot of uncertainty and a lot of emotions right now for farmers.”

Another farmer in Iowa is still planting corn, skipped planting soybeans because prices are dropping and there’s no resolution to the trade deal.

“This can’t go on for an extended period of time. We need a trade deal done soon, and in the meantime farmers are probably going to need another round of aid payments,” said Grant Kimberley, a farmer and director of market development at the Iowa Soybean Association

Several months ago, we showed the number of farmers filing for bankruptcy climbed to its highest level in a decade.

Because of the unfriendly environment, the level of farm debt is approaching highs not seen since the farm crisis of the early 1980s.

Trump’s protectionist policies could be backfiring in the heartland. If the farm crisis continues to worsen, this could have severe consequences for his 2020 odds.

end

It looks like Boeing will need to shell out over one billion dollars for those doomed 737 Max passengers

(courtesy zerohedge)

Boeing Settlement Hinges On How Long Doomed 737 Max Passengers Knew They Were Going To Die

Boeing and its insurers are likely to pay an amount of money to the families of those who died in the 737 Max crashes that is directly proportional to one grim measure: how long the victims knew they were plunging to their deaths. Additionally, as part of a legal fight to determine Boeing’s financial liability after the 737 Max crashes in Ethiopia and Indonesia, passenger’s families could be paid compensation based on grief, sorrow, loss of companionship and lost future paychecks.

According to an estimate from Bloomberg, the claims could total as much is $1 billion, and some legal experts believe the final amount could be even more, if evidence shows that Boeing knew about flaws in their planes prior to the tragedies taking place. This idea has already prompted investor lawsuits against the company, claiming it hid safety risks.

Brian Alexander, a New York aviation lawyer for victims of the Ethiopian Airlines jet said: “The bottom line is Boeing’s exposure is much more substantial than in any other case that I’ve been a part of in my quarter-century of representing families. You get into ‘What did you know and when did you know it’.”

The crash in Ethiopia, which followed an October crash in Indonesia, led to the worldwide grounding of the 737 Max, a plane that accounts for a third of Boeing’s operating profit. Among multiple ongoing investigations is a Justice Department probe on how American regulators wound up certifying a flawed part of the plane’s flight control system.

Even though the precise cause of the crashes is still being investigated, preliminary evidence is heightening the liability risk for Boeing. Robert Rabin, a Stanford University law professor said: “It would be in Boeing’s best interest to settle.’’

It would be far more expensive for the company to go to trial. Cases involving airliner crashes are rarely decided by juries because companies want to avoid the risk of massive awards, as well as the bad publicity of a trial: “There is a tendency for defendants to settle and get on with their business,” Rabin said.

Most of the lawsuits against Boeing have been filed in Chicago, where the company is headquartered. Juries in Chicago have traditionally been generous to plaintiffs, like last year when two personal injury verdicts came down to the tune of $50 million and $45 million in favor of the plaintiffs.

 

A mourner lays a flower at portraits of victims of the Ethiopian Airlines crash. Photo: Getty Images

The length of time that victims were in fear prior to the crash presents a risk of an unpredictably large award. An appellate court in New York recently approved a $2.5 million award in a case involving a crane operator who plunged 200 feet to his death. However, not all cases have gone the way of the plaintiff. For instance, a case against Pan Am in the early 1980s saw parents of a crash victim awarded just $15,000 for the anguish their son suffered when the plane rolled, eventually hitting a tree before crashing.

The Ethiopian flight crashed six minutes after it took off and the prior crash on Lion Air went down about 11 minutes into its flight. In both instances, preliminary reports showed that pilots struggled for several minutes to try to regain control of planes that were in uncontrolled dives as fast as 600 miles an hour. Lawyers will contend that victims knew their fate was coming as a result.

Joe Power, a personal-injury lawyer in Chicago representing some Ethiopian victims said: “There’s a better chance of recovery if it took minutes rather than seconds for the plane to crash.”

Damages against Boeing would likely be paid out by the company’s insurers, except for what amounts to a large deductible that is common among major manufacturers. Some defendants are already offering cash settlements in exchange for a pledge not to pursue legal claims. Families in Indonesia have been approached by Lion Air with an offer of about $90,000. The average annual income in the country is about $3,400.

Power continued: “It’s unconscionable that someone would take advantage of these poor people who have just lost loved ones. The problem is when you’re going to these third world countries, you don’t have much of a justice system. Power dominates. Not the individual.”

For the Lion Air crash, 40 cases are currently pending in federal court. Boeing has indicated it plans to ask the judge to move the cases to Indonesia under the argument that the victims lived and died there. Plaintiffs contend that the strategy would be unfair to their clients because their legal system takes “years and years” and it would allow Boeing to delay any resolution.

“Boeing would have a much better chance of limiting their liability,” plaintiff attorney Kabateck said.

The investor lawsuits against Boeing allege that the company artificially inflated the value of its stock by withholding knowledge of safety problems. Shareholders are seeking as much as $4.76 billion for losses from January to March 21. According to the plaintiff’s attorney, that amount may increase.

Recent public reports about Boeing’s missteps related to the manufacturing of the 737 Max, including reports that we have published about shoddy quality control and manufacturing, could add another $1.2 billion in losses.

Plaintiff attorney Reid Kathrein concluded: “Now they’ve admitted they knew before the crash, it strengthens our position tremendously.”

end

SWAMP STORIES

Barr selects apolitical Attorney John Durham, a non nonsense fellow to head the investigation into FBI/DOJ spying. He has also investigated the FBI before

(courtesy zero hedge)

Barr Appoints US Attorney To Investigate FBI/DOJ Spying On Trump; Has Investigated FBI Before

Attorney General William Barr has appointed US Attorney John H. Durham of Connecticut to examine the origins of the Trump-Russia investigation to determine if the FBI’s spying on the Trump campaign was “lawful and appropriate,” according to Fox News.

 

U.S. Attorney John Durham has been assigned to probe the origins of the surveillance of the Trump campaign, a source told Fox News. (Justice Department)

The move comes as the Trump administration has demanded answers over the use of “informants” on his 2016 campaign.

According to Fox, Barr is “serious” and has assembled a team from the DOJ to participate in the probe, adding that Durham is known as a “hard-charging, bulldog” prosecutor according to their source.

Sources familiar with matter say the focus of the probe includes the pre-transition period — prior to Nov. 7, 2016 – – including the use and initiation of informants, as well as potential Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) abuses.

An informant working for U.S. intelligence posed as a Cambridge University research assistant in September 2016 to try extracting any possible ties between the Trump campaign and Russia from George Papadopoulos, then a Trump foreign policy adviser, it emerged earlier this month. Papadopoulos told Fox News the informant tried to “seduce” him as part of the “bizarre” episode.

Durham previously has investigated law enforcement corruption, the destruction of CIA videotapes and the Boston FBI office’s relationship with mobsters. He is set to continue to serve as the chief federal prosecutor in Connecticut. –Fox News

Of note – in January House Republicans Jim Jordan and Mark Meadows wrote to Durham, saying that they had “discovered” he was “investigating former FBI General Counsel James Baker” over unauthorized leaks to the media.

Durham has a history of serving as a special prosecutor, investigating wrongdoing among national security officials – including the FBI’s ties to a Boston crime boss, as well as accusations of CIA detainee abuse.

Developing…

 

end
Rosenstein slams Comey.  Grab your popcorn on this;
(courtesy zerohedge)

Rosenstein Routs “Partisan Pundit” Comey – Says Former FBI Director ‘Crossed The Line’

Former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein flayed fired FBI Director James Comey in the latest edition of their ongoing spat.

Speaking on Monday at the Great Baltimore Committee Monday evening, Rosenstein discussed several topics, including his handling of the Russia investigation and his recommendation to President Trump to fire Comey, who Rosenstein called a “partisan pundit”

While discussing Comey’s handling of the Hillary Clinton email investigation, Rosenstein said that “while there are many issues in our line [of work] in which a range of decisions may be reasonable, there are bright lines that should never be crossed,” criticizing Comey’s decision to hold a July 2016 press conference in which he explained why Clinton would not face charges. He then slammed Comey’s 11th hour letter to Congress days before the 2016 election explaining that decision.

Those actions were not within the range of reasonable decisions,” said Rosenstein. “They were inconsistent with our goal of communicating to all FBI employees that they should respect the attorney general’s role, refrain from disclosing information about criminal investigations, avoid disparaging uncharged persons, and above all, not take unnecessary steps that could influence an election.”

Embedded video

ABC News

@ABC

NEW: Former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein defends Russia investigation handling, hits back at James Comey. “I would never have allowed anyone to interfere with the investigation.” https://abcn.ws/2VFVtZu

Rosenstein stuck by his decision to recommend Comey’s firing – however he dinged the White House for how it went down, citing “confusing explanations” and saying “If I had been the decision maker, the removal would have been handled very differently, with far more respect and far less drama.

He added that President Trump “did not tell me what reasons to put in my memo.

“So I do not blame the former director for being angry,” said Rosenstein. “But now the former director is a partisan pundit, selling books and earning speaking fees while speculating about the strength of my character and the fate of my immortal soul. That is disappointing. Speculating about souls is not a job for police and prosecutors. Generally, we base our opinions on eyewitness testimony.”

Rosenstein was referring to comments Comey made on a CNN Town Hall, telling host Anderson Cooper that Rosenstein was a person of accomplishment, but “not a person of strong character.” 

Embedded video

CNN Politics

@CNNPolitics

James Comey says Rod Rosenstein is not a person of strong character. One thing to note: President Trump used Rosenstein’s letter to justify firing Comey https://cnn.it/2VpbFxY

Rosenstein responded on Monday, saying that his soul and character “are pretty much the same today as they were two years ago.”

Is that to say that he would gladly wear a wire to spy on President Trump as part of a scheme to remove him under the 25th Amendment? Would he also sign a bunch of FISA warrant renewals on Carter Page based on a political dossier the FBI couldn’t corroborate?

Who knows, but this Comey-Rosenstein spat been highly entertaining to say the least.

end

Clapper is nervous; he now claims: “we don’t need another investigation of the investigators”. I wonder why he thinks that

(courtesy zerohedge)

Nervous Clapper Claims “We Don’t Need Another Investigation Of The Investigators”

James Clapper, in an interview with John Berman on CNN, was asked about the attorney general appointment of U.S. Attorney John Durham for the job to investigate how the “FBI Russia Investigation started”.

“Do you think this kind of investigation is warranted?”

“You’re going to have to stand in line and take a number to do an investigation of the investigators” said Clapper.

“There is a substantial investigation, which as I understand it, is nearing completion, being conducted by the Justice Department Inspector General,” Clapper said.

“I’d wait for the outcome of that to determine if there needs to be more investigations.”

Starting at 3:20, the CNN anchor asks about Barr’s newly appointed investigator of the origins of the Russia probe…

But then Clapper shifted stance, repeating the old mantra, that Mueller has denied in his report:

“We’re kinda losing sight of what was the cause of all this, the predicate for all this, was the Russians and the dozens of occasions where Russian operatives tried to engage with the Trump campaign

The Russians were attacking the US election system on a rather massive scale through social media, through RT…”

“That was a profound threat to our entire election system and still is. People should pay more attention to Volume 1 of the Mueller Report and what the Russians did… we are losing sight of that.”

 

SWAMP STORIES/KEY STORIES/KING REPORT

(COURTESY OF CHRIS POWELL OF GATA)

Blatant and massive stock market manipulation for political expediency appeared on Friday.

Because Trump instituted higher tariffs on China in the wee hours of Friday, China rigged its stock market for political and psychological reasons.  The CSI jumped 3.63%.  The Chinese manipulation induced traders to buy ESMs.  This generated early rally attempts in Europe and the USA.

China mouthpiece @HuXijin_GT: China stock market closed Fri… with SSE index rising 3.1%. Today’s trading spans over time when US’ new tariffs took effect. This shows China’s market has largely withstood the initial wave of psychological impact of Trump’s tariff stick. It’s US market’s turn next.

@realDonaldTrump [6:43 ET]: Talks with China continue in a very congenial manner – there is absolutely no need to rush – as Tariffs are NOW being paid to the United States by China of 25% on 250 Billion Dollars worth of goods & products. These massive payments go directly to the Treasury of the U.S… Tariffs will bring in FAR MORE wealth to our Country than even a phenomenal deal of the traditional kind. Also, much easier & quicker to do. Our Farmers will do better, faster, and starving nations can now be helped. Waivers on some products will be granted, or go to new source!

Trump Baffles with ‘No Rush’ China Trade Tweet, Delete, Retweet

  • U.S. has begun to add 25% tariffs on $250 billion in goods
  • ‘Just sit back and watch!’ Trump says in Twitter string

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-10/trump-says-no-need-to-rush-in-china-talks-after-tariffs-hit

If China manipulated its stock market on Friday for political and psychological benefits, why wouldn’t the USA do the same thing?  Chinese mouthpiece Hu Xijin [above tweet] challenged the US to match China’s stock market manipulation on Friday; the USA met the challenge.

The stock market has devolved into a parlor game of manipulation and schemes.

For a few decades, the adage ‘bad economic news is good news for stocks’ because the Fed will have to ease has been supplanted by ‘bad US-China trade news is good news for stocks’ because the governments will manipulate their stock markets higher for political advantage.

The inability to engineer a morning reversal after a serious decline is a negative for equities.  Evidence indicates that there was an increase in organic selling on Friday morning.

@HFTAlert [12:07 ET] Program activity for today thus far… 36 in total, 19 sells including the CAPPER marked on the list… 17 buys.  $SPY $QQQ $DOW  note how many portfolio programs there are…. this means portfolios [Real sellers] NOT some evil algo designed to spoof your brain…  [Chart at:]  https://twitter.com/HFTAlert/status/1126881359962578945

@HuXijin_GT [11:12 ET]: Based on what I know, Chinese side insists on a few core points: US side should remove all additional tariffs, amount of purchase the US requests should be in line with reality; the text of the agreement must respect sovereignty and dignity. I think the insistence is reasonable.

OAN’s @GretaLWall: The 11th round of US-China trade talks wrap up in Washington. The US trade team reportedly gave China 3-4 weeks to reach a deal or the Trump Administration will impose tariffs on the remaining $325B of Chinese products currently not tariffed.

On Friday morning, amid the stock rout, Boston Fed President Bostic said increased tariffs on Chinese imports are a short-term factor.  However, if the tariffs become prolonged and GDP and consumers suffer, the Fed could cut interest rates.  It’s insight like this that allows daffy academics to sit in the big chairs.

@AtlantaFed: May 10: Our sticky-price CPI rose 2.7% in April. Check out the updated data on the #AtlantaFed websitehttp://bit.ly/2EGrItP

The BLS: Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1 percent from March to April, seasonally adjusted…  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf

Friday was a very bad day for President Obama and Bob Mueller.

Banker behind Biggest Malaysian Corruption Scandal Indicted For Donation to Obama Campaign

Alleged mastermind of the $4.5 billion 1MDB fraud for funneling money stolen from the doomed sovereign wealth fund to benefit President Obama’s reelection campaign https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-10/ex-fugees-star-be-charged-funneling-1mdb-money-obama-reelection-campaign

According to the indictment, between June 2012 and November 2012, Low directed the transfer of approximately $21,600,000 from foreign entities and accounts to Michel for the purpose of funneling significant sums of money into the United States presidential election [Mueller was FBI Dir.]

https://www.justtherealnews.com/2019/05/10/entertainer-businessman-and-malaysian-financier-indicted-for-conspiring-to-make-and-conceal-foreign-and-conduit-contributions-during-2012-u-s-presidential-election/

NYT: President Obama asked Congress on Thursday to allow Robert S. Mueller III to remain the director of the F.B.I. for two more years, a surprise move [May 11, 2011]

https://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/13/us/politics/13mueller.html

@TomFitton: A federal court granted @JudicialWatch discovery on Clinton emails because the court wanted answers about the cover-up. And now we have answers because it looks like the Obama White House orchestrated the Clinton email cover-up.

Judicial Watch on Friday: Records Obtained in Court-Ordered Discovery Reveal Obama White House Tracking FOIA Request for Clinton Emails

    Judicial Watch announced today that it obtained 44 pages of records from the State Department through court-ordered discovery revealing that the Obama White House was tracking a December 2012 Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request seeking records concerning then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s use of an unsecure, non-government email system… [What did Mueller know?]

https://www.judicialwatch.org/press-room/press-releases/judicial-watch-records-obtained-in-court-ordered-discovery-reveal-obama-white-house-tracking-foia-request-for-clinton-emails/

Aides to Hillary Clinton were on high alert in January 2011.  Justin Cooper, the man who oversaw the secretary of state’s home-based email servers, sent a warning to Huma Abedin. “I had to shut down the server.Someone was trying to hack us and while they did not get in i didnt want to let them have the chance to. I will restart in the morning,” Cooper said in a 2:57 a.m. email… Early the next morning, Abedin wrote to State Department officials Jake Sullivan and Cheryl Mills, Clinton’s chief of staff: “Don’t email hrc [Hillary Rodham Clinton] anything sensitive. I can explain more in person.”…

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/omg-fbi-files-show-clinton-aides-scrambling-after-feared-email-server-hack

Solomon: Newly declassified memos detail extent of improper Obama-era NSA spying   07/25/17

There also were several instances in which Americans’ unmasked names were improperly shared inside the intelligence community without being redacted, a violation of the so-called minimization procedures thatObama loosened in 2011 The new documents confirm the NSA has in fact issued such waivers and that it uncovered in 2012 a significant violation in which the waivers were improperly used and the infraction was slow to be reported to the court… [What did Mueller know and when did he know it?]

https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/343785-newly-declassified-memos-detail-extent-of-improper-obama-era-nsa

On Thursday’s Lou Dobbs Tonight, Joe di Genova said Horowitz is now investigating John Solomon’s report about the State Department telling the FBI that Steele and his dossier was bunk – and the DoJ IG has already found that the final three FISA renewals were obtained illegally.  Ergo, the FBI hid the incriminating State Department memo and supporting documents from Horowitz. FBI Chief Wray has some serious explaining to do.  Comey et al are in very, very big legal trouble.

@chadPergram: Nadler says Mueller won’t appear next week… contempt for Barr won’t be next week

GOP Rep. Cline (on House Intel Com) to Fox’s Melissa Francis on Mueller not testifying: “It sounds to me like those who were involved in the Steele dossier and the FISA warrants are running scared…”

In Thursday night CNN interview, Comey asserted that it is “reasonable… totally normal step” for the FBI to plant undercover sources (AKA spies) in a political campaign.  No, Jim it is probably a felony.  Comey also asserted that he could NOT remember if he authorized the spying on Papadopoulos.

Rep. @DevinNunes on Comey’s CNN interview: “I don’t think he’s telling the truth…The former FBI Director is not a stupid man, and he’s acting awfully stupid…I think Mr. Comey is in a lot of trouble and he should be. He made a mess of the FBI.

It appears that dossier author Steele has now dragged people from Congress into his steaming mess.

Steele Said Congressional Sources ‘Confirmed’ Dubious Claim about Carter Page

Steele’s claim, which is found in notes that State Department official Kathleen Kavalec took on Oct. 11, 2016, is the first evidence that the former MI6 officer might have had interactions with someone on Capitol Hill regarding his investigation of the Trump campaign

https://dailycaller.com/2019/05/10/christopher-steele-congress-carter-page/

Former Obama WH Comms Director: “I Hope” House Democrats Break the Rules in Order to Take down President Trump    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/05/former-obama-wh-comms-director-i-hope-house-democrats-break-the-rules-in-order-to-take-down-president-trump-video/

Ex-SDNY prosecutor Andy McCarthy: Russiagate: Law in the Service of Partisan Politics

This is an exquisitely planned political campaign.

     Russiagate has always been a political narrative masquerading as a federal investigation. Its objective, plain and simple, has been twofold: first, to hamstring Donald Trump’s capacity to press the agenda on which he ran… and ultimately, to render him unelectable come autumn 2020

      Politicize the intelligence and law-enforcement apparatus. Signal to the public through intelligence leaks… Convince Trump that using the presidency’s arsenal to fight back would just bolster the obstruction case against him. Sic a special counsel on him if he lashed out anyway. Use the investigation as a rationale for slow-walking Trump nominees and for refusing to deal with him on such critical issues as border enforcement. Drive his numbers down

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/05/trump-russia-investigation-partisan-politics/

@CNNPolitics: Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal says if Donald Trump Jr. fails to comply to a subpoena from the GOP-led Senate Intelligence Committee he should be “put in jail”: “He has no privilege, prison is the only answer” https://cnn.it/2Vo9I4S [Arresting DJT Jr would kill Dems in 2020]

Mitch McConnell’s Deep Financial Ties to China ‘Unprecedented’ in U.S. History

Sec. Elaine Chao’s father and Sen. McConnell’s father-in-law James S.C. Chao signed contracts with a subsidiary of the state-owned China State Shipbuilding Corporation for… bulk cargo ships…

[Mitch mad at DJT over China?  A reason for Trump Jr’s subpoena?]

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2018/05/02/exclusive-peter-schweizer-mitch-mcconnells-deep-financial-ties-to-china-unprecedented-in-u-s-history/

McConnell’s re-election campaign is selling ‘Cocaine Mitch’ shirts [Campaign jujitsu]

Blow was once found aboard a freighter owned by his shipping magnate father-in-law…

https://nypost.com/2019/05/09/mcconnells-re-election-campaign-is-selling-cocaine-mitch-shirts/

Schiff: Biden Ukraine Scandal Should Be Off Limits [You can’t make this hypocrisy up!]

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA) said on Sunday that Joe Biden’s Ukraine corruption scandal should be off limits as the 2020 US election approaches, and that President Trump shouldn’t be allowed to investigate – or encourage Ukraine to investigate…

   ‘I said, ‘You’re not getting the billion.’ I’m going to be leaving here in, I think it was about six hours. I looked at them and said: ‘I’m leaving in six hours. If the prosecutor is not fired, you’re not getting the money,’” bragged Biden, recalling the conversation with Poroshenko.  “Well, son of a bitch, he got fired,” Biden gloated… https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-12/schiff-says-biden-ukraine-scandal-should-be-limits

OAN’s @JackPosobiec: Both Adam Schiff and Joe Biden take money from Ukrainian oligarchs so we shouldn’t be surprised they are in panic mode over this

@nytimes: Harvard said that a professor, Ronald Sullivan Jr., who is representing Harvey Weinstein would not continue as faculty dean of an undergraduate house. He and his wife, Stephanie Robinson, were the first African-American faculty deans in Harvard’s history. [Students are upset/triggered/bratty that he is representing Harvey Weinstein.]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/11/us/ronald-sullivan-harvard.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

-END-

Barr Assigns U.S. Attorney in Connecticut to Review Origins of Russia Inquiry [Act II commences]

John H. Durham, the United States attorney in Connecticut, has a history of serving as a special prosecutor investigating potential wrongdoing among national security officialsincluding the F.B.I.’sties to a crime boss in Boston [Mueller fiasco] and accusations of C.I.A. abuses of detainees…

[Durham is currently investigating ex-FBI General Counsel James Baker for leaks.]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/13/us/politics/russia-investigation-justice-department-review.html

 

@WSJ: Former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein kicked off post-government life by slamming former FBI Director James Comey, calling him a “partisan pundit” whose firing was justified

[Rod also said he would not let anyone interfere in Mueller’s investigation.  Comey PO-ed Rod.]

 

With Fox News’ lurch to the left, OAN is now Trump and conservative’s favorite news outlet.

 

@realDonaldTrump: Congratulations to @OANN on the great job you are doing and the big ratings jump

 

@realDonaldTrump: “The FBI has no leadership. The Director is protecting the same gang…..that tried to…. overthrow the President through an illegal coup.” (Recommended [Wray] by previous DOJ[Rosenstein]) — @TomFitton @JudicialWatch

 

Women behind almost half [45%] of individual Trump contributions in first three months of year

https://nypost.com/2019/05/11/women-behind-almost-half-of-individual-trump-contributions-in-first-three-months-of-year/

 

William Barr vs. Eric Holder: A Tale of Two Attorneys General

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/05/william-barr-vs-eric-holder-a-tale-of-two-attorneys-general/

 

@JohnWHuber [not US Atty Huber]: State Department Kavalec notes imply that Steele used Former Russian Deputy Prime Minister Vladislav Surkov as a “source” for the dossier  If that’s true Steele and the FBI have a problem because… Surkov is on the sanctions list.  Oh and Surkov once wrote a novel under a fake name about a protagonist in public relations who bribes journalists. I’m sure that’s not relevant to the dossier…

 

@ProfMJCleveland Replying to @JohnWHuber: And Mueller has a problem too because that’d be apretty big red flag that Russia was feeding Steele misinformation to interfere in the election, yet Mueller didn’t investigate it.

 

@JohnWHuber: FYI Kavalec worked in the US Embassy in Moscow (1992-1994) during the same timeframe Steele was posted to Moscow as MI6 undercover (1990-1993).  Also strong links to Ukraine

 

@ProfMJCleveland: In the heat of compiling the dossier, Christopher Steele “vacationed” in Cyprus, from July 9 – 16, which he told to Ohr. Steele would later claim a Cyprus resident planted virus in Democrat’s system via porn hubs to hack the info.  Could all be coincidental, or not.

Attachments area

 

 

I WILL SEE YOU WEDNESDAY NIGHT
I AM PROVIDING A LITTLE ADVANCE WARNING THAT ON MAY 23.2019 I WILL NOT PROVIDE A COMMENTARY. HOWEVER LATE IN THE EVENING I WILL PROVIDE ONLY THE COMEX DATA.

 

 

Advertisements

One comment

  1. Hi Harvey,
    Your section about gold contracts said that J. P. Morgan today received 42/43 contracts. But the data you posted (pasted below) seem to indicate 28/43. If I’m not misreading, could you post a clarification tomorrow. Thanks.

    EXCHANGE: COMEX
    CONTRACT: MAY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
    SETTLEMENT: 1,300.100000000 USD
    INTENT DATE: 05/13/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 05/15/2019
    FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
    _____________________________________
    657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
    661 C JP MORGAN 42 28
    737 C ADVANTAGE 1 12
    ___________________________________________

    TOTAL: 43 43

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: