MAY 15/GOLD UP $1.50 TO $1297.05//SILVER UP 2 CENTS TO $14,81//USA DELAYS TARIFFS ON EU CARS SENDS DOW HIGHER BY 116 POINTS//WAR DRUMS BEATING LOUDER AND LOUDER AS THE USA CARRIER ENTERS THE GULF//TURKEY PUTS A TAX ON FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS IN A MOVE TO INCREASE DOLLAR RESERVES// USA RETAIL SALES AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DOWN HARD LAST MONTH..LIKEWISE FOR CHINA//HUGE NUMBER OF SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1297.05  UP $1.50 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $14.81 UP 2 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold : 1296.70

 

 

 

silver:  $14.81

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING 1/1

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,294.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/14/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 05/16/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
661 C JP MORGAN 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 1 1
MONTH TO DATE: 233

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 100 OZ (0.003215 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  233 NOTICES FOR 23300 OZ  (.7247 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MAY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR NIL  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3373 for 16,865,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :$7946  DOWN $9

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $7946 UP $160.00

 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A TINY SIZED 102 CONTRACTS FROM 203,890 DOWN TO 203,788 WITH YESTERDAY’S  2 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. ,LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED FOR SILVER BUT IT NOW IN FULL FORCE FOR GOLD. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

 0 FOR MAY, 0 FOR JUNE, 435 FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  435 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 435 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 435 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 1.665 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 2 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

AND NOW 18.335 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MAY:

13,303 CONTRACTS (FOR 11 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 13,303 CONTRACTS) OR 66,51 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1209 CONTRACTS OR 6.045 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY:  66.51 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 9.19% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          807.62    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 102 WITH THE TINY  2 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 435 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS RESUMED THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES TODAY.

 

TODAY WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED: 333 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 435 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 102 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 2 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.79 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.020 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 145% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR  NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ AND NOW MAY:  18.335 MILLION OZ ..
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A  CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2490 CONTRACTS, TO 517,995 WITH THE FALL IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(AN INCREASE IN PRICE OF $5,45//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 5436 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 5436 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS, JUNE 2020  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 517,995.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2946 CONTRACTS: 2490 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 5436 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 2946 CONTRACTS OR 494,600 OZ OR 9.163 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF  $5,45.AND WITH THAT STRONG LOSS, WE  HAD AN GOOD GAIN OF 9.163  TONNES!!!!!!.?????? 

WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING: NOT TO NOTICEABLE WITH TODAY’S FALL IN PRICE

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS HAVE NOW SWITCHED TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF  SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 65,405 CONTRACTS OR 6,540,500 OR 203.43 TONNES (11 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5945 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 203,43 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 203,43/3550 x 100% TONNES =5,73% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     2018.99 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2490 WITH THE FALL IN PRICING ($5.45) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A  GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5436 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5436 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 4566 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5436 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2490 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 9.163 TONNES). ..AND THIS GOOD DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN PRICE OF $5.45 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE NO DOUBT HAD A SMALL PRESENCE OF SPREADING TODAY.

 

 

 

we had:  1 notice(s) filed upon for 100 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $1.50  TODAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORy

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY:

A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.031 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A TINY SIZED 102 CONTRACTS from 201,956 UPTO 203,788 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED THEIR LIQUIDATION IN SILVER BUT HAVE NOW MORPHED INTO GOLD..

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE:

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 0 FOR MAY, FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 435 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 435 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 102 CONTRACTS TO THE 435 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL GAIN OF 333 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1.665 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL AND NOW 18.335 MILLION OZ FOR MAY

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE TINY 2 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 435 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 55.07 POINTS OR 1.91%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 146.69 POINTS OR 0.52%   /The Nikkei closed UP 121.33 POINTS OR 0.58%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .69%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8830 /Oil UP to 61.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.08 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8830 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9148 TRADE TALKS STILL ON//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP THREATENS TO RAISE RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

i)NORTH KOREA

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 China/Chinese affairs

i)China/

China reports today, like the USA that all green shoots are dead.  China’s retail sales and Industrial production falter.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

ii)Huawei offers to sign a “no spy” pact with governments as the UK is set on embark on 5 G

( zerohedge)

iii)CHINA/USA
Saxo bank discusses the latest trade war developments between China and the uSA and explains to us what to expect
( zerohedge/Saxo Bank)
iv)Trump intensifies his war against Huawei.  The reason of course is that the USA is far behind Hauwei in 5 G technology
(cour zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)ITALY

We brought this story to you yesterday.  Salvini has had enough with the budget rules of the EU.  His economy is faltering and he needs to spend more.  His ultimate goal is to leave the EU and devalue the lira
( zerohedge)

ii)UK

In the words of Ron Burgundy: Boy! did that escalate fast: The new Brexit party surges to 34% while the Tories drop to 5th place. Labour has not benefited at all on the fall of the Tories.  This is what happens to a party when you go against the wishes of the people.

( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

iii)Brain dead Theresa May  will bring back the Brexit deal for a 4th vote next month;

( zerohedge)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

a)Turkey

Turkey again in the new today.  In order to create some USA revenue it is imposing a .1% tax on foreign exchange transactions.  Of course this will hurt investors who are already reeling from interest rates at 25.5%.  Turkey is adamant on purchasing Russians S400 defense shield.  Down goes the Lira this morning

( zerohedge)

b)IRANPerhaps the greatest sign that there is going to a military confrontation in Iran is the fact that USA allies are pulling their troops from Iraq and the Gulf

(courtesy zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

THE GLOBE

We have been pointing out to you since October who global trade has been collapsing.  The trade war is not helping

( zerohedge)

CANADA/CHINA
This is a surprise:  Canada sells a huge total of 12.5 billion of USA treasuries.  Also China resumes is selling of treasuries as well, dumping 10 billion dollars worth of bonds.
( zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

VENEZUELA

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Kranzler believes that the Fed is losing control on the interest rate front..and they may lose control of the goldprice as well…

( Kranzler/IRD/GATA)

ii)Ed Steer discusses the late Bart Chilton’s revelation that JPMorgan was allowed to manipulate the silver price. He also discusses the use of derivatives by central banks to control the price of the precious metals.

( Ed Steer/Silver Doctors/GATA)

 

iii)Craig Hemke believes that 2019 is the shakeout year for both gold and silver

(Craig Hemke/GATA)

iv)Simon Black comments that central banks are buying gold at its fastest pace in 6 years
( Simon Black/Sovereign Man)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//

Stocks surge from the depths on Trump’s plan to delay EU auto import tariffs.  Trump according to Bloomberg does not want to upset ongoing talks.  However Trump may still go against advisors and initiate the tariffs this week
( zerohedge)

 

 

 

ii)Market data

We obtained two big hard data this morning..retail sales and industrial production:

First retail spending contracted big time with auto sales leading the way

( zerohedge)

 

ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Esther George is one of the hawks at the Fed.  She warns against cutting interest rates as she states that will lead to bubbles.  She is correct on that point..however she states that cutting rates will lead to a recession..wrong.  If the Fed raises rates a recession will surely be upon the USA

( zerohedge)

 

SWAMP STORIES

i)This is a big story.  The Bidens are big crooks and took huge bribe money form both Ukraine and China while Joe Biden was Vice President.  Schweizer wrote a book on this and demands that Hunter Biden must testify over these revelations

(Courtesy zerohedge)

ii)This is big!!  USA Attorney Joe DiGenova tells Laura Ingram that John Durham has already been on the case for a couple of months now. He states that John Brennan, the orchestra leader and Comey are in big trouble.  Also the issuance of those FISA applications will probably cause headaches for many in the Democratic field.

(/Ingram Angle)

iii)What a joke:  He now know that Andrew Weissmann hand picked all of those “angry Democrats” to lead the witch hunt against Trump et al

( zerohedge)

iv)White HOuse tells Nadler that there is no “do over” with respect to the Russian collusion hoax. It is over…

( zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2490 CONTRACTS.TO A LEVEL OF 519,615 WITH THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($5.45) IN YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5436EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

0 FOR JUNE ’19: 5436 CONTRACTS , DEC; 0 CONTRACTS: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5436 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 2946 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5436 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL  SIZED 2490 COMEX CONTRACTS.

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 2946 contracts OR 294600 OZ OR 9.163 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of MAY and here the open interest stands at 121 contracts, having LOST 38 contracts. We had 43 notices served yesterday so we gained 5 contracts or an additional 500  oz will stand as they guys refused to morph into a London based forward as well as negating a fiat bonus

The next contract month after May is June and here the open interest FELL by 9385 contracts DOWN to 280,827.  July LOST 18 contracts to stand at 68.  After July the next active month is August and here the OI rose by 4747 contracts up to 154,046 contracts.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 1 NOTICE FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  100  OZ. (0.00311 TONNES)

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 102 CONTRACTS FROM 201,956 UP TO 203,788 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S TINY OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A  2 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.  HERE WE HAVE 295 OPEN INTEREST STAND SO FAR FOR A LOSS OF ONLY 12 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 13 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO IN ESSENCE WE GAINED ANOTHER  1 CONTRACT OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. SILVER MUST BE SCARCE AT THE COMEX. QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE. WE HAVE NOW SURPASSED THE INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING WHICH OCCURRED ON APRIL 30.2019

 

 

 

THE NEXT MONTH AFTER MAY IS THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF  JUNE.  HERE THIS MONTH LOST 8 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 733. AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY, (THE SECOND LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR FOR SILVER) AND HERE THIS MONTH LOST 1432 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 153,947 CONTRACTS. THE NEXT ACTIVE MONTH AFTER JULY FOR SILVER IS SEPTEMBER AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 229 DOWN TO 18,762 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 256,879  CONTRACTS 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  247,064  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  MAY/GOLD

MAY 15 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
289.35
oz
9 kilobars
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

8,234.849 oz

Brinks

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
1 notice(s)
 100 OZ
(0.00311 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
120 contracts
(12000 oz)
0.3732 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
233 notices
23300 OZ
.7247 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into Brinks:  8,234.849 oz

 

 

total gold deposits: 8,234.849  oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside/ finally a small amount arrived  today

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

(maybe investors are taking our advice by not storing their gold at the comex.)

this will hurt our bankers as they need to replace leased gold as all gold stored at the gold comex is unallocated.

 

Gold withdrawals;

i)  We had 1 withdrawal:

from the Bank of Nova Scotia:  289.35 oz

9 kilobars

 

.

total gold withdrawals;    289.35 oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustments today

FOR THE MAY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (233) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (121` contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz per contract) equals 35,300 OZ OR 1.082 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of MAY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (233 x 100 oz)  + (121)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz )which equals 35,300 oz standing OR 1.098 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of MAY.

We gained 5 contracts or an additional 500 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into a London based forwards. Queue jumping continues where we left off last month in gold and for that matter in silver.  We now have two precious metals undergoing queue jumping as the bankers scramble to obtain physical metal.

 

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 6.632 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 1.098 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

IF THIS IS GOING ON IN MAY, I JUST CANNOT WAIT TO SEE WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  213,219.982 oz or  6.632tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,702,502.023 oz 239.58 tonnes

 

 

FOR COMPARISON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR MAY 2018 AND FINAL STANDING MAY 31 2018

 

 

AT FIRST DAY NOTICE MAY 1 2018: WE HAD 1.284 TONNES OF GOLD STAND.  BY MONTH’S END:  2.27 TONNES AS WE HAD ONE QUEUE JUMPING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

IN THE LAST 32 MONTHS 116 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
MAY 15 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
169,441.991 oz
DELAWARE
HSBC
BNS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
168,373.588 oz
LOOMIS
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
295 contracts
1,475,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3373 contracts

16,865,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: NIL  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 149.469 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.80% of all official comex silver. (149 million/307 million)

 

into Loomis:  168,373.588 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  168,373.588  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of Delaware:  1068.01 oz

ii) Out of HSBC; 100,021. oz
iii) Out of Scotia:  600,132.150 oz

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals:  644,111.158 oz

 

we had 1 adjustment :

i) out of CNT:  39,365.45 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

 

 

total dealer silver:  92.179 million

total dealer + customer silver:  306.928 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MAY 2019. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR  NIL  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3373 x 5,000 oz = 16,865,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (295) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY/2019 contract month: 33763(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY( 295) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 18,335,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month.

We GAINED 1 contracts or an additional 5,000 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus for their efforts.

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON VS LAST YEAR:

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE APRIL 30/2018 (FOR THE MAY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH) WE HAD 24.11 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY.  BY MONTH END WE HAD HUGE QUEUE JUMPING AND THUS 36.285 MILLION OZ EVENTUALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY.

 

 

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  44,362 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 54,113 CONTRACTS..

 

..

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 54,113 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 270 million  OZ 38.6% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -4.42% (MAY 15/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -2.05% to NAV (MAY 15/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.42%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.91 TRADING 12.36/DISCOUNT 4.22

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MAY 15/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

MAY 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45 TODAY: STRANGE!! THE CROOKS DECIDED TO DEPOSIT A HUGE 3.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

MAY 13/ WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $15.40 TODAY: STRANGE! A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.41 TONNES OF GOLD (TO TAME GOLD’S RISE TODAY)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 10 WITH GOLD UP $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 9//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 7/ WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $9.35 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.52

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD UP $4.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES//

APRIL 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.2//ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 746.69 TONNES TONNES

APRIL 25//WITH GOLD UP $.05 TODAY  (BASICALLY FLAT) NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

 

APRIL 24 WITH GOLD UP  $6.00 TODAY// TWO TRANSACTIONS: 1)A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD AND THEN II) ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

APRIL 23./WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES//

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD UP $1.75//A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT752.27 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES AT THE GLD WHICH WAS USED IN YESTERDAY’S RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 752.27 TONNES

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.03

APRIL 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $2.10 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757..85 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.45 AGAIN TODAY, THE CROOKS AGAIN RAIDED THE COOKE JAR BY 2.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.49 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40: THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 761.67 TONNES.

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD UP$1.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF PHYSICAL GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.55 TONNES

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.29 TONNES

APRIL 3:WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS: ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL: 3.81 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  764.29 TONNES

APRIL 2//WOW! WE LOST A WHOPPING 16.16 TONNES OF GOLD WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $1.80//INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.10

 

 

 

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MAY 15/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 736.46 tonnes

*IN LAST 594 TRADING DAYS: 197.51NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 494 TRADING DAYS: A NET 31.67 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN LOST INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV  INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.031 MILLION OZ//  THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ.

MAY 14/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

MAY 13//WITH SILVE5 DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ…

MAY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///

MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///

MAY 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 891,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

MAY 3//WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 843,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/TOTAL INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.691 MILLION OZ//

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 13 CENTS, MIRACUOUSLY THE AUTHORITIES ADD 2.869 MILLION OZ OF SILVER BACK INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.848 MILLION OZ//

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ////

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 29/ WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 26//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 23./WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A SHOCKING 2.8122 MILLION PAPER OZ WERE ADDED INTO SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15: WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 12 WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 750,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ//

April 10/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:  THE CROOKS CANNOT RAID ANY SILVER BECAUSE THERE IS NONE: INVENTORY RETS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 4/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP TWO CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/ WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ FROM THE SLV TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167

 

 

 

MAY 15/2019:

 

Inventory 316.551 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.12/ and libor 6 month duration 2.55

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .43

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.33%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.64

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.31

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold T

 

 
end

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

Kranzler believes that the Fed is losing control on the interest rate front..and they may lose control of the goldprice as well…

(courtesy Kranzler/IRD/GATA)

Dave Kranzler: Fed is losing control of rates, then may lose control of gold too

 Section: 

9:05a ET Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics in Denver explains today why a big move up in the monetary metals may be at hand at last.

Kranzler writes: “The inverted yield curve, combined with an effective Fed funds rate that is above the interest rate used to calculate the quantity of free money given by the Fed to the banks on excess reserves, is strong evidence that the Fed is losing its ability to control the financial markets. At some point the Fed and its Western central bank collaborators, led by the Bank for International Settlements, will also lose control of the gold price.”

Kranzler’s analysis is headlined “Gold and Silver May Be Setting Up for a Big Move” and it’s posted at IRD here:

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/gold-and-silver-may-be-setting-up-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Ed Steer discusses the late Bart Chilton’s revelation that JPMorgan was allowed to manipulate the silver price. He also discusses the use of derivatives by central banks to control the price of the precious metals.

(courtesy Ed Steer/Silver Doctors/GATA)

GATA’s Ed Steer discusses Chilton’s admission, commodity price control

 Section: 

9:45a ET Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA Board of Directors member Ed Steer, editor of Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Digest letter, was interviewed the other day by James Anderson for Silver Doctors. They discussed former U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission member Bart Chilton’s confirmation that the commission allowed JPMorganChase to manipulate the silver market. They also discussed the use of derivatives by central banks and their agents to control commodity prices.

The interview is 20 minutes long and can be heard at Silver Doctors here:

https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines/world-news/ed-steer-gold-silver-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Craig Hemke believes that 2019 is the shakeout year for both gold and silver

 

(Craig Hemke/GATA)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Recalling 2010

 Section: 

4p ET Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report, writing at Sprott Money today, explains why he is more persuaded that 2019 will follow 2010’s pattern of a shakeout in the monetary metals followed by a sharp rally. His analysis is headlined “Recalling 2010” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/recalling-2010-craig-hemke-14-052019.ht…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END



iii) Other Physical stories
Simon Black comments that central banks are buying gold at its fastest pace in 6 years
(courtesy Simon Black/Sovereign Man)

Central Banks Are Buying Gold At The Fastest Pace In Six Years

Authored by Simon Black via SoveriegnMan.com,

Earlier this month the World Gold Council published its quarterly report– and it shows that central banks and foreign governments from around the world are buying up gold at their fastest pace in six years.

This is pretty big news, and it says a LOT about the future of the dollar.

Remember, central banks and foreign governments hold literally TRILLIONS of dollars of reserves… and traditionally they do this by buying US government debt.

It sounds strange, but to big institutions, banks, etc., US government debt is equivalent to cash. They use it as a form of money.

More importantly, they hold US dollars because that’s the global standard: the US dollar has been the world’s primary international reserve currency for seventy five years.

So US debt is extremely liquid. In fact, the $22 trillion US debt market is the biggest and most liquid market in the world.

But foreign governments have started breaking with the tradition of buying treasuries.

As the World Gold Council’s report showed us, foreign governments and central banks have been buying a LOT more gold than in previous years.

Net gold purchases in Q1/2019 among foreign governments and central banks was nearly 70% greater than Q1/2018… and the highest rate of first quarter purchases in six years.

The Chinese in particular, have been stockpiling gold faster than ever, while at the same time, Chinese ownership of US treasuries as a percentage of total holdings has been gradually declining over the past years.

And it’s not just China.

Russia, Turkey, Qatar, and even Colombia – a long-time ally of the US – have been diversifying and buying a lot more gold.

There are a few obvious reasons behind that.

The debt of the US federal government recently reached $22 trillion. And it isn’t getting any better– they add at least $1 trillion to the debt each year.

And the Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the Uncle Sam will NEVER again see an annual budget deficit of less than $1 trillion starting in 2021.

That has serious impact on the ability of the US government to repay its obligations to foreign creditors.

And if the Bolsheviks come to power next year and offer free goodies (paid for with more debt) to anyone with a pulse, the debt burden will explode.

Anyone who thinks owning 10-year US treasuries – or even worse, 30-year government bonds – is risk-free, is completely insane.

The dollar’s problems aren’t limited to the US government’s pitiful finances either.

Even the Federal Reserve– the central bank of the United States– is close to insolvency, according to its own financial statements.

And the Fed’s coffers are routinely plundered by Congress in order to fund pet projects in Washington.

It’s so ridiculous that, in late 2015, Congress passed a law to steal $53.3 billion from the Federal reserve, putting the central bank on the brink of insolvency.

Then of course there’s the looming prospect of escalating US trade wars… and it’s easy to see why so many foreign governments and central banks are diversifying out of the dollar and into gold.

History shows that reserve currencies come and go.

There was a time when the British pound was the dominant currency in the world. And before that, Dutch guilders, Spanish pieces of eight…

Reserve currencies go all the way back before the gold solidus coin of the Byzantine Empire.

Today, the US dollar is the dominant currency in the world.

This is unlikely to change in the near future. But it would be equally foolish to assume that the dollar’s dominance will last forever.

Gold, on the other hand, has been a constant of wealth preservation for nearly all of human history.

It was first used as money more than 3,000 years ago. And an ounce of gold continues to buy roughly the same amount of goods over time.

There are a number of reasons for that. Gold is scarce, portable, and it can stand the test of time without corroding.

Today, I own gold as an insurance policy. It’s a form of wealth with no counter party risk, and one that has global demand.

Virtually anywhere you can possibly go in the world, gold has value, and it’s definitely worth your consideration.

One interesting benefit– we’re living in a time where nearly every other asset is at an all-time high. Stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.

A single troy ounce of gold sells for nearly 50% below its record price from 2011.

Given what’s happening with central banks, foreign governments, and US debt, it’s clear that demand is rising.

But simultaneously, the supply of gold is under a lot of pressure. We’ve discussed before that large mines have been closing, and large producers haven’t invested in new discoveries.

So there could be significant potential for rising gold prices in the future.

And to continue learning how to ensure you thrive no matter what happens next in the world, I encourage you to download our free Perfect Plan B Guide.

 

-END-
 
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.8830/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9148   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 55.07 POINTS OR 1.91%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 146.69 POINTS OR 0.52%

 

2. Nikkei closed  UP 121.33 POINTS OR 0.58%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED RED /

 

 

 

USA dollar index RISES TO 97.64/Euro FALLS TO 1.1184

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.05/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.35/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 61.07 and Brent: 70.22

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.12%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.77% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.96%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.89: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.57

3k Gold at $1300.00 silver at: 14.82   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 7/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.84

3m oil into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and 70 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.35 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0082 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.175 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.12%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.38% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.82%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.0639..they are toast

Markets Slide Despite Stimulus Hopes After Dire Chinese Data; Yields Plunge

It’s about time we had some bad news which, as everyone knows, is great news for central-bank supported, centrally-planned markets.

The global equity bounce following what many misinterpreted as softer rhetoric by President Donald Trump on the trade dispute with China, fizzled on Wednesday despite dismal Chinese data, while fresh Italian debt woes kept BTFDers on the sidelines.

Ironically, China’s data miss was not the catalyst for the drop. As we reported last night, in April every Chinese economic metric posted a sharp decline and missed expectations:

  • Retail sales rose just 7.2% (against +8.7% in March) – lowest since May 2003 (the 7.2% year-on-year rise in retail sales is actually weaker than all the estimates. The lowest was 7.5%, and the median was 8.6%)
  • Industrial Production growth slumped from a hope-filled +6.5% YTD YoY in March to 6.2%.
  • Fixed Asset Investment slowed to just 6.1% YoY.

“Investors had been waiting for data to confirm signs of stabilization in the Chinese economy which, in turn, would bolster expectations that the global economy could start making a sustainable recovery,” said Neil McKinnon at VTB Capital. “The recent escalation in tariffs makes that more difficult and can only add to investor risk aversion and increase the risk of a more prolonged economic downturn.”

However, considering the surge in Chinese stocks, which closed 1.9% higher as traders speculated Beijing will consider more measures to support the economy after data showed weaker-than-expected growth in April, the only thing about the dismal Chinese data is that it wasn’t even worse to prompt even greater global hopes for a Chinese stimulus.

As a result, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained for the first time in three days, with China rebounding and Indonesia declining. MSCI Asia Pac rose +0.5%, with top contributors including: CAR Inc +13%, Renesas +11%, Meitu +11%, Luzhou Laojiao +10%, Mitsubishi Estate +9.2%; in Japan, the Topix Index rose 0.6%, the same as the Nikkei 225, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index +0.5%, an the CSI 300 was 2.2% higher.

China’s horrendous economic data was not enough to spark a buying frenzy on stimulus hopes in Europe, where Italian bonds and stocks traded lower with automakers falling the most, though off session lows, as risk sentiment remains nervous in the wake of trade and domestic political concerns. European bank stocks underperformed the SXXP on Wednesday, with the sector index falling 0.9% as three lenders post earnings misses and the latest bout of merger speculation fades.

  • Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International was the biggest decliner on the Stoxx 600 Banks Index after its 1Q profit missed estimates; stock drops as much as 5.4%
  • Credit Agricole slid as much as 3.9%, also related to a profit miss as higher costs eat into earnings
  • ABN Amro down 2.6%, falling to the lowest since Oct. 2016 after reporting a 20% decline in 1Q profit due to negative interest rates and Brexit preparations
  • Commerzbank erased an early 2.9% gain and is down 2.2% at 10:20 a.m. in Frankfurt; The stock jumped 4.3% on Tuesday on a report that ING and UniCredit are lining up advisers to explore a potential takeover of the German lender

As reported yesterday, investor concerns continue to rise over Italy’s fiscal situation after Rome said it was ready to break EU fiscal rules to spur employment. Italian stocks declined 0.7% to lead European stocks lower while France’s benchmark slipped 0.4%. Data confirming that Germany’s economy had returned to growth in the first quarter cushioned the DAX which eased 0.2%. London’s FTSE rose 0.2%. AS a result, the Euro Stoxx 50 trades down 0.2%, having traded as much as -0.7% earlier, with move lower led by autos and basic resources.

The souring mood also looked to spill over to Wall Street with U.S. futures pointing to a softer open following healthy gains in the previous session. MSCI’s broadest index of world stocks traded flat.

In currency markets, the Australian dollar – a proxy of China-related trades – fell to its lowest level in three months amid the China data fallout. The Bloomberg USD neared session highs, not long after it traded down to unchanged, with most G-10 pairs trading in tight ranges.  The euro remained anchored at $1.1214 while the dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was nearly flat at 97.524 after gaining 0.2% the previous day. The pound remained near a two-week low after Prime Minister Theresa May’s spokesman said late on Tuesday she planned to put forward her thrice-rejected Brexit deal in early June to try to secure an agreement on how to extract Britain from the European Union before the summer holiday.

The Chinese yuan was a shade firmer at 6.9056 per dollar in offshore trade, having edged away from a five-month trough of 6.9200 set on Tuesday.

In rates, Italian yields rise across the 2y-10y tenors, with curve bear flattening, with 2-yr yields +8bps and 10-yr yields +3bps.

Haven bonds outperform, with 10-yr bund yield -3bps to -0.10%, lowest level since 2016, and 10-yr UST yield -2bps to 2.39%. In the US, Treasury yields sank to the lowest level since March, while yields on 10-year German bunds slipped to the lowest since 2016, but they jumped for Italy’s debt, as the nation’s deputy premier Matteo  Salvini racheted up tensions over the country’s deficit.

In commodities, both WTI ($61.38) and Brent ($71.03) traded lower after API reported a bigger-than-expected build in crude inventory and IEA cut its forecast for 2019 oil demand. U.S. crude inventories rose by 8.6 million barrels in the week to May 10 to 477.8 million, compared with analysts’ expectations for a decrease of 800,000 barrels. Brent and WTI surged the previous day after Saudi Arabia said explosive-laden drones launched by a Yemeni-armed movement aligned to Iran had attacked facilities belonging to state oil company Aramco.

Expected data include mortgage applications, retail sales, and industrial production. Alibaba, Macy’s, and Cisco are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,839.25
  • MXAP up 0.5% to 155.33
  • MXAPJ up 0.4% to 510.12
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 21,188.56
  • Topix up 0.6% to 1,544.15
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 28,268.71
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.9% to 2,938.68
  • Sensex up 0.5% to 37,485.81
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 6,284.20
  • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,092.78
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 375.80
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.4 bps to -0.094%
  • Euro up 0.08% to $1.1213
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.9 bps to 2.355%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 0.966%
  • Brent futures down 0.3% to $71.06/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,298.37
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 97.47

Top Overnight News

  • Theresa May set a date for her final Brexit showdown, promising to bring her deal back to Parliament at the start of June
  • China’s economy lost steam in April, underscoring the fragility of the world’s second-largest economy as it girds for an intensified face-off with the U.S. over trade. Industrial output, retail sales and investment all slowed more than economists forecast
  • Trump rejected a report that his administration is planning for war with Iran, but then warned he’d send “a hell of a lot more” than 120,000 troops to the Middle East in the event of hostilities
  • President Donald Trump called on the Federal Reserve to “match” what he said China would do to offset economic hardship being caused by tariffs as he sought to draft the U.S. central bank into his simmering trade war
  • New York Fed President John Williams and his Kansas City colleague Esther George, who vote on policy this year, acknowledged that new tariffs on Chinese imports could affect the outlook for U.S. inflation and growth. But both saw no need for the central bank to react
  • Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said propping up domestic demand would be a priority for his government as economic data show signs of weakness ahead of a planned increase in the sales tax in October
  • Germany’s economy emerged from stagnation at the beginning of 2019, returning to growth despite a slump in manufacturing that continues to plague the nation.
  • U.K.’s Theresa May will bring her Brexit deal back to Parliament at the start of June in the hope that she can persuade MPs to support it

Asian equity markets eventually traded mostly higher following the positive lead from the US where sentiment was underpinned by President Trump’s optimism regarding a US-China trade deal, but with gains in the Asia-Pac region capped as participants digested earnings, as well as disappointing Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales data. ASX 200 (+0.7%) was led higher by strength in tech as the sector tracked the outperformance of its counterpart stateside, while Nikkei (+0.6%) mirrored a somewhat indecisive currency with heavy losses seen in Takeda and Nissan shares post-earnings. Hang Seng (+0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.9%) were positive after President Trump’s encouraging rhetoric and with the first phase of the PBoC’s targeted RRR adjustment taking effect today which would release around CNY 100bln of long-term funds and resulted to a decline in Chinese money market rates, although the gains across the region were somewhat capped by disappointing Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales data. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with price action hampered by the ambiguous risk tone in Japan and with today’s BoJ Rinban operation at a relatively paltry JPY 505bln concentrated in the belly.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Xi Calls Efforts to Reshape Other Nations ’Foolish’
  • Turkey Imposes 0.1% Tax for Some Foreign Exchange Transactions
  • Rich Asia Investors Face Rising Risk in Leveraged Bond Funds
  • Wanda to Plow Billions Into China After Dumping Assets Abroad

Choppy trade in European equities [Eurostoxx 50 -0.6%] following on from a positive Asia-Pac as sentiment deteriorated in early trade. Major indices are now mostly lower after opening with marginal gains, although initial downside coincided with defensive comments from China’s Foreign Minister, which seemed to have dampened the prospects of a US-China trade deal in the near term. Sectors are mostly lower with defensive stocks buoyed for the time being and broad-based losses seen across the rest. In terms of individual movers, Renault (-4.0%) fell to the foot of the CAC as shares of its alliance partner Nissan tumbled in the wake of dismal earnings. Meanwhile, Italian banks [Intesa Sanpaolo -1.7%, Unicredit -1.5%, Banco BPM -1.5%] fell in tandem with the decline in BTPs (albeit off lows), given the banks’ large holdings of the sovereign debt. Elsewhere, given the looming US auto import tariffs deadline (May 18th), analyst at Morgan Stanley believe that the German economy will be hit the hardest due to direct impact and through supply chains, adding that Germany’s exports of vehicles and auto parts to the US make up around 2% of the total goods exports, thus, “a US car tariff increase to 25% could lower growth in Germany by ~0.25pp, with any knock-on impact on sentiment on top.”

Top European News

  • German Economy Rebounds From Stagnation With 0.4% Expansion
  • Credit Agricole Revenue Misses Estimates on Key Italian Market
  • Italy Rocks European Bond Markets Over Its Deficit Once Again
  • Pound Turns Currency Laggard as Brexit Bad News Is Seen Looming

In FX, we start with CHF/JPY/EUR/GBP – The Franc is back in favour and outperforming after a temporary loss of safe-haven appeal on Tuesday as a combination of sub-forecast Chinese data (IP and retail sales) and Italian fiscal jitters offset less acute angst on the US-China trade front, although the latest barbs from Beijing have been quite inflammatory. Usd/Chf has retreated towards 1.0050 again and Eur/Chf is back down below 1.1300 even though the single currency remains relatively resilient vs a broadly firm Dollar having survived another test of 1.1200 with the aid of some firm Eurozone GDP prints. Meanwhile, Usd/Jpy has also pulled back from yesterday’s rebound highs to probe bids under 109.50 and expose Fib support at 109.23 that was breached on Monday when the headline pair got to within a whisker of 109.00. Note, however, decent option expiry interest may keep the headline pair afloat given 1.2 bn rolling off between 109.00-20 and almost 1.8 bn at 109.40-50. Elsewhere, the Pound has also defended poignant big figure levels at 1.2900 in Cable and 0.8700 vs the Euro as UK PM May prepares for Thursday’s 1922 showdown and another stab at getting the WA through the HoC in early June.

  • AUD/NZD/CAD – All under pressure and down vs their US counterpart, with the Aussie hit by soft wages on top of the aforementioned disappointing Chinese macro releases ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report that has been flagged by the RBA as key in terms of near term policy and whether a rate cut is required. Aud/Usd is just off fresh multi-month lows around 0.6920 and Aud/Nzd is pivoting 1.0550 as the Kiwi hovers just above 0.6550 against the Greenback. Meanwhile, the Loonie is meandering between 1.3476-56 and in a tighter range than on Tuesday awaiting some independent impetus/direction from Canadian CPI that is due alongside US retail sales and with the DXY equally contained within 97.432-578 parameters and just above the 30 DMA (97.417).
  • EM – The Lira remains in the spotlight and volatile after yesterday’s seemingly impressive recovery, as Usd/Try bounced back over 6.0000 despite more efforts by the CBRT to stop the rot via a return of tax

In commodities, WTI (-1.3%) and Brent (-0.9%) futures are on the backfoot with the initial decline sparked by a substantial surprise build in API crude inventories (+8.6mln vs. Exp. -1.3mln). Crude prices then recovered off lows amid positive sentiment in Asia-Pac trade before an intensifying risk-averse mood pressured the complex. Upside in the energy market is also capped by the IEA Monthly Oil Report which cut 2019 oil demand growth estimate by 90k bpd to 1.3mln bpd, in contrast to yesterday’s OPEC monthly report where the total world oil demand growth for 2019 was left unchanged at 1.21mln BPD. On a technical front, WTI Jun’19 futures reside just below its 50 DMA (61.45) ahead of its 200 DMA (60.40) whilst its Brent counterpart seems to have been recently finding support its 50 DMA (currently at 69.78). Looking ahead, traders will be keeping an eye out for the more widely followed EIA crude stocks release later today wherein ING agrees that numbers similar to the API would likely be seen as bearish in the immediate term. Elsewhere, the receding buck and soured risk tone has modestly supported gold (+0.3%) in recent trade, as the yellow metal fluctuates above its 100 DMA (1296.64) and in close proximity to the 1300/oz level. Meanwhile, Chinese steel production increased by 12.7% Y/Y to the highest level on record as stronger margins allowed steel mills to increase utilisation rates. However, ING believes that margins can come under pressure moving forwards as “the more recent strength in Chinese steel prices [are] reflecting stock building following the Chinese New Year.”

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 2.7%
  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, est. 8, prior 10.1
  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 1.6%; Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 1.2%; Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.3%, prior 1.0%
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.0%, prior -0.1%; Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.0%, prior 0.0%
  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 64, prior 63
  • 10am: Business Inventories, est. 0.0%, prior 0.3%
  • 4pm: Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior $51.9b; Total Net TIC Flows, prior $21.6b deficit

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Given the thousands of cold, dark, early starts that have been associated with writing the EMR over the last 12-13 years, I hope readers will forgive me one indulgence in setting the scene in front of me in contributing to today’s edition. I’m on the US West Coast and the moon is alighting the coastline and I can hear the gentle caressing of waves upon the shore below. I have a small glass of red and I’m about to fall into a blissful sleep as jet lag catches up with me. After a tough 10 days, even markets are starting to look better. However, this scene won’t last forever and maybe the recovery might not either.

Indeed, although markets might have staged a mini recovery yesterday it wasn’t like there was a material piece of new news to help drive a change in view on the US-China trade spat.The fact that both sides appear willing to continue conversing is perhaps fuelling some hope that there will still be a positive outcome to this down the line but it’s hard to see it disappearing from our screens anytime soon. The next point of call will be the data with a number of sentiment indicators due out from the end of this month which should capture this recent escalation. Indeed, yesterday NY Fed President Williams said he is focused on the latest survey data to gauge the impact of the trade stress. Until then, its likely markets remain in a state of relative flux.

The recovery for risk yesterday included a +0.80% gain for the S&P 500 – only the second positive day in the last six sessions. At a sector level some of the biggest gains were reserved for the recently beaten up tech and financials sectors. Indeed the NASDAQ closed up +1.14% although is still down -2.30% this week while the DOW rose +0.82%. The semi-conductor index also closed up +2.40%, halving its loss on the week. In Europe the STOXX 600 finished +1.01% and DAX +0.97%. The VIX (-2.2pts) also dipped back below 20 while in credit US HY spreads ended -2bps tighter. The recent rally for Treasuries also abated with 2y and 10y yields both rising +0.9bps, although Bunds did hold back down at the lowly levels of -0.072%. BTPs (+2.9bps) did however underperform on the back of headlines quoting Northern League head Salvini as saying that Italy is ready to break EU fiscal rules. His coalition partner Luigi di Maio of the Five Star Movement directly contradicted him to reporters, calling Salvini’s comments “irresponsible” and cited the widening spread to bunds as a concern. In normal times that might be encouraging to hear from an Italian politician, but since it currently also implies stress within the coalition and potentially elevated odds of an early election, such internal dissent is not optimal. Elsewhere EM FX (+0.14%) had a rare up day, helped by the offshore yuan’s +0.12% rally, its first in six sessions. That also helped the MSCI EM equity index gain +1.40%, while safe haven currencies like the Yen (-0.28%) and Swiss Franc (-0.23%) slipped.

This morning Asia has followed the lead from Wall Street with gains led by China with the Shanghai Comp and CSI 300 gaining +1.10% and +1.35% respectively. That actually comes despite disappointing data following the release of the April activity indicators in China. Industrial production (+5.4% yoy vs. +6.5% expected), retail sales (+7.2% yoy vs. +8.6% expected) and fixed asset investment (+6.1% ytd yoy vs. +6.4% expected) all missed and slipped from March, although a bright spot was property investment which rose one-tenth to +11.9% yoy. Overall though the data does throw a little bit of doubt into the recovery thesis especially given the timing just before the latest ratcheting up in the trade war which makes next month’s data of significance. We should note that the data has been countered by a comment from a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics who said China still has ample room to step up policy support – suggesting further scope for policy stimuli – which appears to be helping to support markets this morning. The Hang Seng (+0.73%), Nikkei (+0.18%) and Kospi (+0.55%) are posting more modest gains.

Back to yesterday where the main trade headlines of note included China’s Global Times running an editorial carried by the Xinhau News Agency that included a reference to the “people’s war” against Washington’s “greed and arrogance” and the Chinese “fighting back to protect its legitimate interest”. A separate story from the Global Times claimed that “what is important is how much pain the US economy will be forced to endure”.

As for Trump, the President tweeted that “when the time is right we will make a deal with China” and that “my respect and friendship with President Xi is unlimited but, as I have told him many times before, this must be a great deal for the United States or it just doesn’t make any sense”.Trump also tweeted that “China will be pumping money into their system and probably reducing interest rates, as always, in order to make up for the business they are, and will be, losing….if the Federal Reserve ever did a ‘match’, it would be game over”. Away from that Axios reported a senior administration official as saying that a “trade deal with China isn’t close and the US could be in for a long trade war”.So all in all nothing that really suggests there is a feeling of de-escalation around the corner. Markets seemed to like the fact that Trump is still focused on a deal and that he continues to speak in good terms about President Xi.

One last mention of trade for this morning, yesterday Craig published a short note looking at potential returns and spreads for USD HY under scenarios of further trade escalation filtering through to the trade proxy PMI, as well as relative sector betas and r-squareds to trade. See his note here .

In other news, Sterling underperformed again yesterday, sliding -0.41% versus the dollar and -0.25% versus the euro (to its lowest level since February), as the situation around Brexit continued to deteriorate.The government confirmed last night that it plans to bring a Brexit bill back to Parliament in early June. There are two problems with this: 1) Labour is not on board, with one official saying “today hasn’t helped” after the hard-Brexit wing of the conservative party dug in their heels against a customs union, and 2) the European Parliament elections are likely to show a big setback for the Conservative party, which would weaken Prime Minister May’s position. A poll yesterday (Kantar Public) showed Labour 9pts ahead of the Tories. Something has to give soon and perhaps this will be Mrs May last roll of the leadership dice.

We also got some Fedspeak yesterday, with NY Fed President Williams speaking in Zurich and repeating the mantra that “policy is in the right place.” He went on to say that he doesn’t “see any reason to have a bias up or downward,” confirming that policy is on hold for now. This view was subsequently reiterated by The Kansas City Fed’s Esther George, considered the most hawkish member of the committee, who said “the wait-and-see approach is appropriate.” She did hedge a little, saying that a 50bps undershoot of the 2% inflation target was acceptable to her, which is more in-line with her prior views but shouldn’t signal any change to the centre of the committee’s thinking.

As for economic data, the highlight was the latest UK jobs report which showed the unemployment rate down 0.1pp to 3.8%, a fresh 44-year low, while wage inflation was softer than expected at 3.2% from 3.5%. In Germany, April headline CPI was confirmed at 2.0% yoy, while the ZEW survey was mixed. The current situation assessment rose to 8.2 from 5.5, but the expectations component slid to -2.1 from 3.1. The euro area ZEW expectations index similarly fell to -1.6 from 4.5. In the US, import prices were softer than expected at 0.2% mom versus expectations for 0.7%. That miss can largely be explained by the dollar’s recent rally, so the effect should fade over the next few months. Separately, the NFIB small business optimism survey rose to 103.5 from 101.8, better than expected and the third consecutive rise.

Looking at the day ahead, this morning we’re due to get a first look at Q1 GDP for Germany where the consensus is for a +0.4% qoq reading. Later on this morning we’ll also get a second reading of Q1 GDP for the Euro Area. A reminder that the flash showed a +0.4% qoq print. Also due this morning is the final April CPI revisions in France and Q1 employment data for the Euro Area. In the US this afternoon we’ve got the April retail sales report due up where the consensus expects a +0.3% mom core and control group reading. We’ll also get the May empire manufacturing reading, April industrial production reading, May NAHB housing market index reading and March business inventories print. Away from the data we’ve got the Fed’s Quarles and Barkin due to speak, along with the ECB’s Coeure and Praet.

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 55.07 POINTS OR 1.91%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 146.69 POINTS OR 0.52%   /The Nikkei closed UP 121.33 POINTS OR 0.58%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .69%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8830 /Oil UP to 61.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.08 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8830 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9148 TRADE TALKS STILL ON//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP THREATENS TO RAISE RATES TO 25%

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA

 

 

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

end

3 C CHINA/CHINESE AFFAIRS

i)China/

China reports today, like the USA that all green shoots are dead.  China’s retail sales and Industrial production falter.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

China ‘Green Shoots’ Are Dead – Retail Sales, Industrial Production, & FAI Slump

And there goes another ‘narrative’…

On the back of one better than expected soft survey PMI print, the world became convinced that as green shoots emerged, China was about to be reborn into magnificent credit-fuelled expansion and would save the world.

Tonight, that narrative died – everything missed expectations:

  • Retail sales rose just 7.2% (against +8.7% in March) – lowest since May 2003 (the 7.2% year-on-year rise in retail sales is actually weaker than all the estimates. The lowest was 7.5%, and the median was 8.6%)
  • Industrial Production growth slumped from a hope-filled +6.5% YTD YoY in March to 6.2%.
  • Fixed Asset Investment slowed to just 6.1% YoY.

Not green shoot-y!

Bloomberg’s Wes Goodman sums things up:

The China data miss suggests the U.S. tariffs already in place are biting, putting the stocks gain Wednesday at risk. For now China shares are up strongly, even if gains have been pared, while the Aussie dollar is holding above earlier lows.”

Don’t worry though – there’s more stimulus to come everyone:

China’s NBS says it will implement counter-cyclical adjustments to maintain steady, healthy economic development.

Raymond Yeung of ANZ Bank makes the point that China needs to maintain growth above 6.3% or above.

“Today’s numbers are not supportive. We believe the State Council will launch more measures to shore up the market sentiment. More tax cuts and consumer subsidies are in the pipeline.”

Because all the stimulus so far has been working so well until now!

Blooomberg’s Enda Curran notes that numbers these bad will heighten scrutiny of the yuan’s moves. Will Beijing allow it to soften materially from here or will they keep a floor under it? It’s a double-edged sword for them.

The weaker the yuan, the greater the risk of financial market instability and the need for intervention. At the same time though, with exporters facing rising tariffs and slowing growth, the currency will remain center stage.

Does this move the trade deal pendulum back in Trump’s favor, forcing China to make a deal? We suspect that will be the bullish spin by the morning and why you should by any dip…

Finally there is this Orwellian nonsense – China’s economy is increasingly resilient to risks, the stats bureau spokeswoman says despite the weaker-than-expected data.

end

Huawei offers to sign a “no spy” pact with governments as the UK is set on embark on 5 G

(courtesy zerohedge)

Huawei Offers To Sign ‘No-Spy’ Pacts With Governments As UK Embarks On 5G

Chinese smartphone and telecommunications equipment giant Huawei is willing to sign ‘no-spy’ agreements with governments which adopt their technology, including Britain, according to chairman Liang Hua.

The Trump administration has warned allies not to use Huawei’s technology to implement 5G networks over concerns that they would allow Chinese intelligence services to spy on whoever uses it.

Moreover, Huawei and its CFO, Meng Wanzhou, are facing criminal charges in the United States over the alleged theft of trade secrets and sanctions violations in Iran.

As Reuters reports, Britain is still deciding on how much they will rely on Huawei – the world’s largest supplier of telecom equipment – for their 5G networks.

“The security and resilience of the UK’s telecoms networks is of paramount importance, and we have strict controls for how Huawei equipment is currently deployed in the UK,” said a spokesman for the British government on Tuesday, adding that the results of a supply chain review would be announced soon.

Prime Minister Theresa May sacked her defense minister, Gavin Williamson, this month over leaked claims that Huawei would have a role in the 5G network, putting Britain at odds with its biggest intelligence ally, the United States.

Williamson has denied he leaked from the confidential talks.

Liang, speaking on the sidelines of a meeting with Huawei’s British technology partners, said the company never intended to be in the eye of a political storm. –Reuters

“The cyber security issue is not exclusive to just one single supplier or one single company, it is a common challenge facing the entire industry and the entire world,” said Liang, adding that Huawei had long cooperated with the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre’s technology oversight efforts, while improving its software engineering capabilities.

Liang also said that Huawei does not take direction or act on behalf of the Chinese government in any international market.

“Despite the fact Huawei has its headquarters in China, we are actually a globally operating company,” he said, adding “Where we are operating globally we are committed to be compliant with the locally applicable laws and regulations in that country.”

“There are no Chinese laws requiring companies to collect intelligence from a foreign government or implant back doors for the government.”

Last month, Ars Technica reported the discovery of a backdoor-like vulnerability in Huawei’s Matebook laptop series which could have allowed remote hackers to gain access to the system. Microsoft confirmed the security flaws were discovered by Windows Defender Advanced Threat Protection (ATP) kernel sensors, which traced the vulnerability back to a Huawei driver.

 

Huawei responded to Tom’s Hardware’s inquiry about the Matebook security flaw. They reiterated that the security flaw was not a backdoor attempt to spy on customers. Huawei also suggested it may take legal action against media over “misleading reports” about this issue.

UK minister Jeremy Wright will announce the findings of the government’s telco supply-chain review soon, and has said that the benefits of cheap Chinese equipment would not take precedence over security concerns.

Liang pushed back, suggesting that economic factors should be a top consideration, saying “I believe the decision should be based on risk assessment and supply-chain assessment, and should also reflect the requirements the UK has in terms of economic development when they choose suppliers,” and adding “Cyber security is indeed a very important factor to consider (…) but at the same time it should be a balanced decision between cyber security and economic prosperity.”

Huawei has inked over 40 5G contracts; 25 in Europe, 10 in the Middle East and six in Asia.

As Reuters notes, Germany says they’ve seen no indication that the company was offering a “no-spy” agreement.

END
Trump intensifies his war against Huawei.  The reason of course is that the USA is far behind Hauwei in 5 G technology
(courtesy zerohedge)

In Latest Move Against Huawei, Trump To Order New Restrictions On Foreign Telecom Companies

In what appears to be the US government’s latest salvo in its war against Huawei, President Trump is reportedly preparing to sign an executive order that would prohibit American firms from using equipment made by foreign telecom companies that pose a ‘security threat’, according to Bloomberg, which sourced its report to administration insiders.

The official who spoke with Bloomberg insisted the order wasn’t intended to single out any country or company, but anybody who has been following the ongoing spat with Huawei should instantly recognize that this simply isn’t true (though, with the trade negotiations at a very delicate impasse, we understand why the administration needs to maintain this pretense). Though Huawei and its fellow Chinese telecoms giant ZTE already face serious restrictions on selling their products in the US, Huawei still maintains a US subsidiary in Texas.

Huawei

The order, which could be signed as soon as Wednesday, wouldn’t outright ban sales to US entities, but it would grant the Commerce Department more authority to review products and purchases made by firms with connections to adversarial countries (we doubt that’s directed at Ericsson and Sweden).

China’s foreign ministry has already lashed out at the US over reports of the executive order.

“This is neither graceful nor fair,” ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at a news briefing in Beijing. “We urge the U.S. to stop citing security concerns as an excuse to unreasonably suppress Chinese companies and provide a fair and equitable and non-discriminatory environment for Chinese companies to operate in the U.S.”

Washington has been campaigning for months to stop its allies around the globe from allowing Huawei products to be used in their 5G networks, but to little avail. Yesterday, Huawei promised to sign a “no spy” pledge to governments like the UK that are still deciding how much reliance on Huawei they are willing to stomach.

As Huawei pushes to assume a global leadership position in 5G, the US’s efforts to try and discredit the company have included successfully pushing for the arrest of its CFO, Meng Wanzhou, in Canada, on charges she helped the company violate US sanctions on Iran.

American lawmakers suspect Huawei’s equipment could be used for spying – and not without reason.

Just last month, Ars Technica found a backdoor like vulnerability in Huawei’s Matebook laptop series which could have allowed remote hackers to gain access to the system. Chinese law also could technically compel companies like Huawei to cooperate with authorities.

But even if the order is signed on Wednesday, it might not take effect for six months, as it would take time for the Commerce Department to “fashion an approach” to the order.

In the meantime, Verizon and other US telecoms firms are still way behind in the war to dominate the global market for 5G networking equipment.

CHINA/USA
Saxo bank discusses the latest trade war developments between China and the uSA and explains to us what to expect
(courtesy zerohedge/Saxo Bank)

Latest Trade War Developments

 

Between Trump tweets and Chinese whispers via state-controlled media, it can be difficult to pinpoint precisely where things stand in the ongoing battle between the world’s two economic superpowers. Saxo’s Christopher Dembik says the CNYUSD rate is the best proxy we have. Here’s why.

Submitted by Christopher Dembik of SaxoBank

As Saxo Head of FX Strategy John Hardy and I both mentioned, we need to look closely at the Chinese yuan this week. In my view, the yuan fixing is the right proxy to understand how the US-China trade negotiations are going. And it isn’t pretty! Since the end of last week, the yuan/dollar fixing has been cut by 45pips to 6.8365. As negotiations are probably going nowhere in the coming days, we could see the fixing moving closer to 6.90. However, I don’t think that the psychological threshold of 7.00 could be reached as it would have deep negative consequences on local firms that use their CNY profits to repay their USD debt. A large devaluation is still a risk but is not the central scenario for the Chinese authorities.

Softer tone in the US vs tougher tone in China

Yesterday evening, senior Trump administration officials tried to appease tensions. US secretary of the Treasury Mnuchin confirmed, without giving much detail, that the US-China trade talks are still ongoing. The tone is clearly different in China where the official media, such as CCTV and People’s Daily, adopted a tougher stance. It is interesting to note that in the previous rounds of trade disputes that occurred since Autumn 2018, People’s Daily articles mostly used the term “trade friction” instead of “trade war” until now… As of yesterday, all the articles and TV reports mention “trade war”. This terminology change means a lot and confirms that the negotiations have entered a more dangerous phase. In addition, China has tightened its “national security” review for foreign investments, which can be considered as another step in the retaliation process.

This is not 2018 again in the FX market

Looking at the initial reaction of the market yesterday, it is likely that the USD will not benefit from the trade war, contrary to what happened in 2018, as investors expect its main US impact would be to damage the economy and increase the likelihood of Fed rate cut this year. Investors are betting that there is a 60%-70% probability that the December 12 Federal Open Market Committee will see a rate cut. Policymakers are starting to pay attention and it may influence forward guidance in the upcoming June meeting by increasing the focus on the market reaction to the trade war and macroeconomic effect of higher tariffs (leading both to higher inflation and less growth which wwould pose a serious policy dilemma to the Fed).

Trump’s approval rate is still high

On the US domestic front, President Trump is now seeking $15 billion to bail out farmers in order to mitigate the negative impact of the trade war. Interestingly, more and more Republican Congressmen that were interviewed yesterday on US TV were very vocal against the latest measures decided by the Trump administration. It is, however, unlikely to have any influence on the ongoing process or to push the administration to comprise with Beijing. Trump is looking at polls and the message they send is bright and clear: as of yesterday, 42% of US voters supported Trump’s policy (FiveThirtyEight). His electoral base has remained stable, faithful and very broad since he was elected.

What’s next?

  • By May 18 – Potential US tariffs on global auto sector.
  • June 1 – China’s move to raise the rate of additional tariffs to 25% on 2,493 US products (representing $60 billion worth of US imports) will come into effect. In addition, list 3 tariffs from 10% to 25% decided by the USA against China will truly be implemented for all products. For the moment, an exemption applies to list 3 products exported before May 10 and arriving in the US before June 1. For these products, the duty rate is still at 10%.
  • June 17 – The USTR will hold a public hearing on potential duty of up to 25% tariffs on virtually all Chinese goods (list 4 tariffs) that are not currently covered by previous tariffs hikes. It will be followed by at least a week of discussions.
  • June 28 – Likely meeting between presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 meeting in Osaka to reach a compromise on trade issues.

Central scenario for coming weeks

In coming days and weeks, the market reaction will be key to monitor, and it may have a much important impact on Trump’s will to compromise with China than any other factors. So far, risk-aversion has been contained. The VIX is revolving around 20, still far from the risk zone of 22, but we should expect a sudden spike in volatility as the wrestling match between China and the USA continues. Our central scenario has not changed. Though the probability of an agreement has decreased, it is still likely to happen but not as early as expected.

The latest events do not prove that there has been a breakdown in trust between the two parties, but it will certainly be much more complicated to reach a fair and balanced agreement due to recent tensions. I fear that China will be reluctant to compromise at first as it could be perceived that its position is dictated by outsiders. Paradoxically, the “close relationship” between the two presidents could be a disadvantage in the negotiation process. If we remember the negotiations between the Soviet Union and the USA in the 1970s as part of arms control talks, there was little trust between both countries and certainly no privileged relationship between the two leaders. However, they understood it was their common interest to find a middle ground. Such a situation is not that certain as it seems abundantly clear that President Trump is convinced that tariffs will mainly hurt China and benefit the USA. 

The first real deadline is June 28, at the occasion of the G20 meeting in Japan, that could be the opportunity for both countries to find a solution regarding the last points of disagreements. In case of failure, it would open the door to a nastier course of events this summer and potentially the implementation of list 4 tariffs.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

In the words of Ron Burgundy: Boy! did that escalate fast: The new Brexit party surges to 34% while the Tories drop to 5th place. Labour has not benefited at all on the fall of the Tories.  This is what happens to a party when you go against the wishes of the people.

(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Brexit Party Surge: Tories Tumble To 5th Place In European Parliament Polls

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The European Parliament polls rate to be a disaster for the Tories. But Labour is not the beneficiary.

I

YouGov

@YouGov

Latest Westminster voting intention (8-9 May)
Con – 24%
Lab – 24%
Brexit Party – 18%
Lib Dem – 16%
Green – 7%
Change UK – 2%
UKIP – 2%
Other – 6%https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/13/voting-intention-conservatives-24-labour-24-8-9-ma?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=VI_9_May_2019 

View image on Twitter

YouGov

@YouGov

Conservatives pushed into fifth place in our latest European Parliament voting intention survey (fieldwork 8-9 May)
Brexit Party – 34%
Lab – 16%
Lib Dem – 15%
Green – 11%
Con – 10%
Change UK – 5%
UKIP – 3%https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/13/european-parliament-voting-intention-brex-34-lab-1?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=European_VI_9_May_2019  pic.twitter.com/aQ1swhpFRE

View image on Twitter

Tory Blues

end

The Opinium Poll has the Tories in 4th place.

 

 

end

Brain dead Theresa May  will bring back the Brexit deal for a 4th vote next month;

(courtesy zerohedge)

Theresa May To Bring Back Brexit Deal For 4th Vote Next Month

The Tories are headed for what looks to be one of the most embarrassing electoral showings in recent memory during May’s EU Parliament elections, even though they technically shouldn’t matter since the UK is still – at least on paper – supposed to leave the EU at some point in the hopefully not-too-distant future. But the broader political implications are clear. Theresa May’s mismanagement of the Brexit process has triggered a backlash that will affect her

 

 

entire party, and with Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party surging in the polls, frustrated Tories are once again imploring their PM to step aside and let the party find a new leader to drive the UK over the Brexit cliff.

May

The latest flurry of reports suggest that May will step aside this summer – possibly as soon as late next month – but not before giving her old Brexit withdrawal agreement one last try in the Commons.

The next vote now has a date: June 3. Which just so happens to coincide with President Trump’s upcoming state visit. With the country distracted, the Tories reeling from a bruising EU Parliamentary vote, and appetite for more Brexit can-kicking non-existent, perhaps May will finally be able to push her widely hated deal through.

Robert Peston

@Peston

Presumably @theresa_may’s calculation in bringing back her Brexit deal for a vote in week of 3 June is that her party’s wipeout in the EU elections, likely to be announced a week earlier, will have so terrified her MPs that right at the last they will back her and her…

Robert Peston

@Peston

Withdrawal Agreement. The much more likely scenario however, according to senior Tories, is that her MPs will reject her deal and reject her as their leader – and they will throw her out of Downing Street. So I would say she is taking a gamble. But truthfully she is not. She…

Robert Peston

@Peston

has run out of road and is now totally at the mercy of her MPs.

Though, if the last three votes are any indication about how the next one might turn out, the odds are stacked against her. Even the third vote still failed by 58 votes.

Then again, if MPs simply swallow their disgust and vote for the deal – since May’s ongoing negotiations with Labour likely won’t produce any kind of workable alternative – they can take off for their summer recess knowing that Brexit has finally been delivered.

The pound’s reaction to the news was muted; it appears algorithmic traders have finally given up on trading the ‘untradeable’ pound.

END
Italy
We brought this story to you yesterday.  Salvini has had enough with the budget rules of the EU.  His economy is faltering and he needs to spend more.  His ultimate goal is to leave the EU and devalue the lira
(courtesy zerohedge)

“Lo Spread” Hits 2019 Highs As Salvini Spits On European Budget Rules

Matteo Salvini just told Jean Claude Juncker and holders of Italian bonds ‘va a fanculo’ because Italy no longer has time for Europe’s outdated and oppressive fiscal rules.

Salvini

During events in Verona and Rome, Salvini went back on the budget offensive, insisting that the League and Five Star would deliver on the package of stimulus measures they incorporated into the 2019 budget – even if the latest batch of European Commission projections suggest that the deficit will be much wider than initially anticipated.

“If we need to break some limits, like the 3% or the 130-140%, we’ll go ahead,” Salvini told reporters in Verona. “Until unemployment is halved in Italy, until we reach 5%, we’ll spend everything that we have to spend.”

“If someone in Brussels complains, that’s not our problem,” Salvinis said. He added that the bloc’s fiscal rules are “outdated, old and imposed without any sense by the EU.”

Later, during an event in Rome, Salvini said he is “absolutely” not concerned about “lo spread” – a statement seemingly intended to rile bond markets. Salvini said he wants to reduce Italy’s debt, but it needs to happen through economic growth, not more austerity. Europe won’t like that at all.

The League leader, who is widely believed to be the most influential figure in Italian politics, has continued to deny rumors that he’s maneuvering to abandon the Five Star Movement as coalition partners, but senior officials are increasingly worried about how Italy will produce a budget for 2020, particularly if the ruling coalition collapses and another general election takes place in the fall.

Unsurprisingly, Italian yields continued their push higher on Wednesday, while yields on German bunds moved lower, pushing “lo spread” to new YTD wides.

Italian

If the League storms the upcoming EU Parliamentary elections later this month, it could embolden Salvini to try and drop the Five Star Movement and seek a more suitable coalition partner, perhaps Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, though both Salvini and M5S leader Luigi Di Maio insist the government will finish its five year term.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY

Turkey again in the new today.  In order to create some USA revenue it is imposing a .1% tax on foreign exchange transactions.  Of course this will hurt investors who are already reeling from interest rates at 25.5%.  Turkey is adamant on purchasing Russians S400 defense shield.  Down goes the Lira this morning

(courtesy zerohedge)

Lira Slides After Turkey Imposes FX Transaction Tax, Rebuffs US Over S-400 Purchase

After rebounding briefly back over 6.00 against the dollar earlier this week, the Turkish lira has been drifting lower again in the past few days, with the slump accelerating overnight even as most EM currencies rebounded on China stimulus hopes, after Turkey announced it would reintroduce a 0.1% tax on some foreign-currency transactions in the latest desperation move to increase budget revenue for the fiscally challenged nation, but risks further raising investor angst that the government is taking on an  larger role in managing the market.

The tax, which had been kept at zero for over a decade, will be introduced on foreign-currency sellers in hopes of limiting the decline in the currency but will accelerate it instead as what little faith is left in the Turkish lira is extinguished. The tax won’t apply to the interbank market and credit transactions, as it is designed “more to discourage FX buying” than to raise funds, according to Erkin Isik, chief economist at QNB Finansbank in Istanbul.

How much revenue will the tax generate? Well, the average trading volume in the local foreign-exchange spot market was $3.6 billion in April, according to central bank data, and according to Isik, the government could add an estimated 200 million liras ($33 million) in monthly revenue to the budget, or about 1.5 billion liras for the remainder of the year. The 12-month rolling budget deficit was 88.4 billion liras as of March, according to Bloomberg calculations using data from the Treasury and Finance Ministry.

In recent months as the lira has resumed its plunge to the record lows hit last summer, Turkey resorted to increasingly aggressive interventions to steady the lira, even engineering a currency crunch before March elections by pressuring local lenders not to provide liquidity to foreign investors. Ironically, officials have repeatedly denied any plans to impose capital controls.

“It sends the wrong signal to the markets,” Guillaume Tresca, senior emerging-market strategist at Credit Agricole CIB, said by email. “The risk is it could deter further appetite from foreigners to invest in Turkey.”

Not helping the lira this morning, was the latest denial by Turkey that it would cancel its purchase of the S-400 Russian missile system, refuting a Bloomberg report from Monday. Speaking to reporters in Ankara on Wednesday, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Turkey will press ahead with its plan to buy the S-400 air-defense missile system from Russia, ruling out a delay requested by the U.S.

“There is no delay or halt at this point,” Cavusoglu told reporters, defying the US demands for Turkey to cancel the Russian missile order.

Turkey’s plan to import Russian advanced weapons has added strains between the two NATO allies. The Trump administration last week asked Ankara to postpone receiving the advanced S-400 missile-defense system which was set for July, according to the people familiar with the proposal.

Following the FX tax news and the S-400 denial, the lira extended its losses against the dollar, trading 0.9% down at 1:25 p.m. in Istanbul.

The lira has weakened almost 13% versus the dollar this year, the worst performer in emerging markets after the Argentine peso. It was 0.7% weaker at 6.0546 per dollar as of 12:56 p.m. in Istanbul.

END

IRAN

Perhaps the greatest sign that there is going to a military confrontation in Iran is the fact that USA allies are pulling their troops from Iraq and the Gulf

(courtesy zerohedge)

Iran’s Military “On The Cusp Of War” As US Allies Pull Troops From Iraq

In probably the most significant sign so far that we could be headed for yet another major war in the Middle East, multiple European allies of the United States are rapidly pulling their forces from Iraq and the Persian Gulf region on fears they could get unwillingly sucked into confrontation with Iran.

Tehran isn’t backing down the US escalation ladder either, given moments ago Iran’s Revolutionary Guard commander said via the Reuters newswire:

“We are on the cusp of a full scale confrontation with the enemy.”

Iran’s Minister of Defense Amir Hatami also vowed Wednesday“We will defeat the American-Zionist front,” according to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA).

This follows on the heels of the US State Department’s dramatic ordering of an evacuation of all non-essential diplomatic personnel and their families from the American embassy in Baghdad, citing an “imminent” threat.

The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group makes its way through the lengthy Suez Canal en route to the Persian Gulf. 

As of Wednesday morning the countries of Spain, Germany, and the Netherlands have suspended military support operations in Iraq, citing rising US-Iran tensions. And further a top Iraqi diplomat told reporters at a press conference in Moscow that “Iraq is a sovereign nation. We will not let [the US] to use our territory” for any military operations against Iran.

Previously on Tuesday Spain was the first to announce that it ordered its military frigate, the Méndez Núñez, which has 215 sailors on board, out of a USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group currently en route to the Persian Gulf, citing “it will not enter into any other type of mission” in the Persian Gulf region, according to the Spanish Minister of Defense.

Minister of Defense Margarita Robles ordered the “temporary measure of withdrawal of the frigate Méndez Núñez (F-104) from the combat group of the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln while it is in the Middle East,” sources from her office told the digital edition of El País.

As of early Wednesday Germany also announced it is temporarily suspending its operations in Iraq, which includes training local soldiers and security personnel as part of US-led coalition efforts.

“The German army has suspended the training,” defense ministry spokesman Jens Flosdorff announced, citing the “generally heightened alert, awareness” for soldiers in the region. However, echoing Britain’s top commander in the coalition, Flosdorff acknowledged there was “no concrete threat” at the moment. “Germany has no indications of its own of attacks supported by Iran,” Reuters quoted him as saying.

In total Germany has about about 160 soldiers deployed in Iraq, embedded as part of Operation Inherent Resolve in support of the US mission; but the peeling away of such an influential EU country could cause other international allies to follow.

The Netherlands also quickly followed suit, per Reuters early Wednesday: “The Dutch government has suspended a mission in Iraq that provides assistance to local authorities due to a security threat, Dutch news agency ANP reported on Wednesday.”

Like Germany’s military, Dutch troops assist in training Iraqi forces, especially in Erbil, northern Iraq, along with other international coalition partners.

Washington and Tehran have recently exchanged threats of direct conflict while jostling to assert control over the vital Strait of Hormuz narrow oil shipping passage, which has further left global oil markets on edge and rattled.

As tensions in the region started to surge, British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said his nation was worried about the risk of accidental conflict “with an escalation that is unintended really on either side.” Then on Tuesday, Spain temporarily pulled one of its frigates from the U.S.-led combat fleet heading toward the Strait of Hormuz. That was followed by the unusual public challenge to the Trump administration by the general. — AP

The military build-up is claimed to be in response to intelligence the White House says confirms that US troops face imminent threat of attack by Iran and its regional proxy forces in places like Iraq, Syria, and the gulf.

But with a number of European allies increasingly vocal in questioning Bolton and the White House’s latest intelligence on which the current saber rattling is based, there’s a high likelihood the standoff could result in a number of European allies permanently ditching US support operations in the Middle East altogether.

end

From USA sources this morning:

“BAGHDAD—The U.S. ordered all its non emergency diplomatic staff to leave Iraq immediately, as tensions rise with Iran over recent attacks against oil tankers and facilities in the Persian Gulf region.

“The State Department directive comes amid U.S. warnings of heightened threats in the Middle East from Iran-allied militias, which could target American citizens and soldiers in Iraq.”

end

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

We have been pointing out to you since October who global trade has been collapsing.  The trade war is not helping

(courtesy zerohedge)

Global Trade Collapsing To Depression Levels

With the trade war between the US and China re-escalating once more, investors are again casting frightened glances at declining global trade volumes, which as Bloomberg writes today, “threaten to upend the global economy’s much-anticipated rebound and could even throw its decade-long expansion into doubt if the conflict spirals out of control.”

“Just as tentative signs appeared that a recovery is taking hold, trade tensions have re-emerged as a credible and significant threat to the business cycle,” said Morgan Stanley’s chief economist, Chetan Ahya, highlighting a “serious impact on corporate confidence” from the tariff feud.

To be sure, even before the latest trade war round, global growth and trade were already suffering, confirmed most recently by last night’s dismal China economic data, which showed industrial output, retail sales and investment all sliding in April by more than economists forecast.

A similar deterioration was observed in the US, where retail sales unexpectedly declined in April while factory production fell for the third time in four months. Meanwhile, over in Europe even though Germany’s economy emerged from stagnation to grow by 0.4% in the first quarter, “the outlook remains fragile amid a manufacturing slump that will be challenged anew by the trade war.” As a result, investor confidence in Europe’s largest economy unexpectedly weakened this month for the first time since October.

Framing the threat, a study by Bloomberg Economics calculated that about 1% of global economic activity is at stake in goods and services traded between the US and China. Almost 4% of Chinese output is exported to the U.S. and any hit to its manufacturers would reverberate through regional supply chains with Taiwan and South Korea among those at risk.
U.S. shipments to China are more limited, though 5.1% of its agricultural production heads there as does 3.3% of its manufactured goods.

The macro fears are once again trickling down to the micro level, and last week chip giant Intel tumbled after it guided to a “more cautious view of the year,” and Italian drinks maker Davide Campari-Milano SpA this month noted the “uncertain geopolitical and macro economic environment.”

“The world economy has been in a significant slowdown for a period,’’ said James Bevan, chief investment officer at CCLA Investment Management. “People just have to wake up and look at the trade data.’’

But the best way to visualize just how serious the threat to global flow of trade, and the world economy in general, below is a chart on the year-over-year changes in global trade as measured by the IMF’s Direction of Trade Statistics, courtesy of BMO’s Ian Lyngern. It shows the absolutely collapse in global exports as broken down into three categories:

  1. Exports to the world (weakest since 2009),
  2. Exports to advances economies (also lowest since 2009), and
  3. Exports to the European Union (challenging 2009 lows).

In short, even before the latest round of trade escalation, global trade had tumbled to levels last seen during the financial crisis depression. One can only wonder what happens to global trade after the latest escalation in US-China trade war…

Commenting on the chart above, Lyngen writs that “as estimates of the fallout from the renewed Trade War begin to reflect the growing apprehension in a variety of markets, we’re struck by the extent of the drop in exports.”

On Wednesday, markets were clearly not struck by the drop in exports, or any other negative news for that matter, with the Dow ripping, reversing its entire morning drop, and trading over 100 points in the green at last check.

 

end
CANADA/CHINA
PART A: TIC REPORT
This is a surprise:  Canada sells a huge total of 12.5 billion of USA treasuries.  Also China resumes is selling of treasuries as well, dumping 10 billion dollars worth of bonds.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Canada Dumps Most US Treasuries In 8 Years, China Resumes Selling

Overall, U.S. total cross-border investment was an $8.1 billion outflow in March, consisting of:

  • Foreign net selling of Treasuries at $12.5b
  • Foreign net selling of equities at $23.6b
  • Foreign net buying of corporate debt at $1.1b
  • Foreign net buying of agency debt at $4.7b

The biggest seller of Treasuries was our friends to the north – Canada – who dumped $12.5 billion, the biggest drop since July 2011.

 

And China was the second biggest Treasury seller (which comes at an awkward moment after the proxy threats in the last week).

After 3 months of buying, China resumed its previous trend of selling US Treasuries in March, dumping over $10 billion worth taking the holdings to their lowest since May 2017.

 

The Cayman Islands were the month’s biggest buyers (typically proxy for hedge funds), adding $9.4bn

Along with Singapore, India, Japan, Hong Kong, and Belgium (often considered another proxy for China).

END
PART B: TIC REPORT

Foreigners Dump A Record $265 Billion In US Stocks In Past Year

As noted earlier, with China selling Treasuries for the first time since December in March according to the latest TIC data

 

… foreign central banks dumped Treasuries for the 6th consecutive month (-$170BN), and 11th of last 12 months (-$265 BN)…

… although much of this was offset by buying from private accounts, as US bond ownerships continues to shift from Public to Private hands.

However, it wasn’t China that was the most aggressive seller of US paper in March, but rather America’s friends to the north – Canada – who dumped $12.5 billion, the biggest drop since July 2011.

Overall, March was a bad month for US assets, with foreigners dumping a total of $12.5 billion in US Treasurys and $24 billion in corporate stocks, offset by purchases of $4.7 billion in Agencies and $1.1 billion in Corporate bonds.

However, for yet another month, the real action was away from the bond market, and in US stocks, where TIC data showed that foreigners sold US stocks for a record 11th consecutive month and 13 of the past 14:

The aggregate $207 billion sale in the past 12 months, is the largest liquidation of US equities by foreigners on record.

What is odd, is that in March US stocks barely shuddered nand after several attempts at taking out 2,800 in the S&P, the finally pushed right through, despite what we now know was relentless selling by both individual and institutional investors, and – now – also by foreigners. Which once again begs the question, just how powerful are stock buybacks – which were the only official buyers of stocks in May – to not only offset selling by virtually everyone else, but also push the market to new highs?

Foreigners Dump A Record $265 Billion In US Stocks In Past Year

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

VENEZUELA

 

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1184 DOWN .0020 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.35 DOWN 0.324 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2890   DOWN   0.0016  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3479 UP .0019 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 20 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  FALLING to 1.1184 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 55.07 POINTS OR 1.91% 

 

 

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 146.69 POINTS OR 0.52% 

 

 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .69%// EUROPEAN BOURSES RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED UP 121.33 POINTS OR 0.58% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 146.69 POINTS OR 0.52%

 

 

 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 55.07 POINTS OR 1.91% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .69% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 121.33  POINTS OR 0.58%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1297.75

silver:$14.80

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.38% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.82 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 97.64 DOWN 5 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.13%  DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.05%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.96% DOWN 1   IN basis point yield from TUESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.75 UP 3  POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 179 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS –.10%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.85% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1206  UP     .0002 or 2 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.57 DOWN .099 OR YEN UP 10  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2869 DOWN .0036 POUND DOWN 36  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 27 basis points to 1.3486

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8762    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9041  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.9968 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.05%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.39 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.83 DOWN 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.53  UP 1  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 55.35  0.76%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 107.95 POINTS OR 0.90%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 32.91 POINTS OR 0.62%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 49,50 POINTS or 0.54%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 29.52 POINTS OR 0.14%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 62.11 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 72.09 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    64.54  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.37 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 37 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.10 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  62.26

 

 

BRENT :  71,94

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.37…   VERY DEADLY// invalids the dow/nasdaq rise

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.82..VERY DEADLY/invalidates the dow/nasdaq rise

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1203 ( DOWN 6   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.55 DOWN .119 (YEN UP 12 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.57 DOWN 4 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.2841 DOWN 65  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.0028

 

the Russian rouble 64,61   UP 0.30 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 30 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3441 UP 27 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8762  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly.

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9021 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly.

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.10%

 

The Dow closed  UP 115.97 POINTS OR 0.45%

 

NASDAQ closed UP  87.65 POINTS OR 1.13%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  16.65 CLOSED DOWN 1.47

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.524%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.518

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Stocks, Bonds, & Bitcoin Jump As Global Economic Data Dumps

The last 24 hours in global economic data has been the second biggest disappointment in over 5 years…

So it all makes perfect sense that stocks were bid…

Chinese stocks rallied because bad news (dismal industrial production and retail sales) is good news for more stimulus, right? because that has worked so well before?

 

European stocks also soared after headlines reported that Trump may delay auto tariffs by six months…

EU Autos soared on the headlines…

 

US markets were a combination of shitty data (yay easy Fed) and delayed tariffs (yay buy auto makers) that levitated stocks in a deja vu move from yesterday…

The tariff delay headline hit at 1010ET

Nasdaq led the bounce followed by S&P after a weak overnight and open…and following yesterday’s pattern of a dead cat bounce, it was an ugly close…

 

Lower lows and lower highs…

 

Big short squeeze delivered the gains today…again…

 

The Vix Term structure remains inverted for the 8th day in a row…

 

There was a notable decoupling between bonds and stocks on the day

 

Treasury yields were down around 3bps across the curve today, even as stocks soared

 

The Dollar Index extended gains overnight but plunged when the auto tariffs headlines hit sparking a big bid for Euros…

 

China is managing offshore yuan very well the last two days…

 

Cryptos continued to rally…

 

With Bitcoin back above $8000…

 

In keep with the rest of the idiocy, copper and crude rallied after the crap china data (more stimulus). PMs trod water…

 

Finally, global money supply and fundamentals are no longer supporting stocks…

And despite all the talk about how bad Europe is compared to ‘green-shoot’-ing America – US markets are now priced for a more dovish Fed this year than the ECB…

end

Stocks, Bond Yields Tumble As ‘Green Shoot’ Narrative Dies

After China green shoots died overnight, the US ‘cleanest-dirty-shirt’ narrative just imploded as retail sales contracted in April. This sent stocks and bond yields notably lower..

Dow futs are down 170 points, 10Y yields are testing a 2.35% handle and 2Y yield drops below 2.16% – the lowest since Feb 2018.

 

The market’s expectation for Fed rate cuts in 2019 are now 45bps!!

 

end
Stocks surge from the depths on Trump’s plan to delay EU auto import tariffs.  Trump according to Bloomberg does not want to upset ongoing talks.  However Trump may still go against advisors and initiate the tariffs this week
(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks Surge On Report Trump Plans To Delay EU Auto Import Tariffs

With all attention focused on US-China trade escalation, there was an unexpected bit of good news on that other trade war front, namely with Europe over auto imports, when moments ago Bloomberg reported that Trump plans to delay imposing tariffs on EU auto imports by six months:

  • TRUMP PLANS TO DELAY IMPOSING TARIFFS ON AUTO IMPORTS
  • TRUMP PLANS AUTO-TARIFF DELAY UP TO SIX MONTHS, PEOPLE SAY
  • TRUMP’S DEADLINE TO DECIDE ON AUTO-IMPORT TARIFFS IS MAY 18

According to Bloomberg, the delay is meant to “avoid blowing up negotiations with the EU and Japan and further antagonize allies” as he ramps up his trade war with China, suggesting that Trump is hunkering down for a prolonged trade war with China.

“Trump and a small group of aides including Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and trade adviser Peter Navarro are seen to be in favor of the new import duties against the advice of other advisers.

The news comes ahead of a May 18 deadline over how Trump will proceed with his threat to slap a tariff of as much as 25% on imported cars and parts in the name of U.S. national security.

The decision to delay was reportedly made at a White House meeting on Tuesday “according to one person familiar with the deliberations.” A decision is expected to be announced publicly before the end of the week.

Of course, since the ultimate decision-maker is Trump, nobody knows what the outcome will be. As Bloomberg adds, “Trump and a small group of aides including Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and trade adviser Peter Navarro are seen to be in favor of the new import duties against the advice of other advisers.”

But people close to the discussions say even advocates of tariffs are still debating the scope of any action, complicating the discussions. Other advisers including U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who is leading the negotiations with the EU and Japan, have been urging Trump to postpone a decision, according to administration officials and other people familiar with the deliberations.

The report sent the Dow surging, almost turning green before retracing some of its gains…

…  although the real action was in Europe, where the Stoxx 600 jump led by BMW, Daimler, and other auto makers all of which spiked on the report, while the yield on the 10Y German Bund, which earlier had dropped to negative levels not seen since 2016, jumped 3 bps.

The EUR was also happy, with the EURUSD, which had been pummeled much of the day, spiked to session highs.

With Trump reportedly willing to concede a little on the European trade war front – we still need official confirmation from the White House of course – does that mean that trade war with China is going to be even more vicious, or will Trump show similar concessions toward Beijing. Somehow we very much doubt the latter.

END

ii)Market data/

We obtained two big hard data this morning..retail sales and industrial production:

First retail spending contracted big time with auto sales leading the way

(courtesy zerohedge)

US ‘Green Shoots’ Die As Retail Spend Contracts On Auto Sales Slump

Following March’s big surprise improvement, US retail sales growth was expected to slow in April but in fact it collapsed, falling 0.2% MoM in April after rising 1.7% in March

  • Retail Sal
  • es -0.2%, Exp. 0.2%, Last 1.7%
  • Retail Sales ex auto 0.1%, Exp. 0.7%, Last 1.3%

Year-over-year, both headline and core retail sales slowed in April…

Under the covers…

The weakness was dominated by a collapse in auto sales (and electronics and building materials also fell)…

And even non-store retailers (internet) saw a contraction in sales…

Retail sales ‘Control Group’ which tends to be used for GDP forecasts, slowed from +1.0% MoM in March to unchanged in April.

While Q1 GDP headlines looked solid, the consumption signals were weak and April retail sales suggests Q2 is not off to a good start.

END

 

US ‘Green Shoots’ Die As Retail Spend Contracts On Auto Sales Slump

Following March’s big surprise improvement, US retail sales growth was expected to slow in April but in fact it collapsed, falling 0.2% MoM in April after rising 1.7% in March

  • Retail Sales -0.2%, Exp. 0.2%, Last 1.7%
  • Retail Sales ex auto 0.1%, Exp. 0.7%, Last 1.3%

Year-over-year, both headline and core retail sales slowed in April…

Under the covers…

The weakness was dominated by a collapse in auto sales (and electronics and building materials also fell)…

And even non-store retailers (internet) saw a contraction in sales…

USA industrial production tu

Retail sales ‘Control Group’ which tends to be used for GDP forecasts, slowed from +1.0% MoM in March to unchanged in April.

While Q1 GDP headlines looked solid, the consumption signals were weak and April retail sales suggests Q2 is not off to a good start.

end

USA industrial production tumbles hugely and it is the weakest growth in 2 years

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Industrial Production Tumbles – Weakest Growth In 2 Years

 

With US industrial production having stagnated for the last four months, April is expected to be more of the same – unchanged from March – but it didn’t, missing dramatically and tumbling 0.5% MoM.

This is the biggest MoM drop since May 2018

And the slowest YoY growth since March 2017

Most major market groups posted decreases in April.

The production of consumer goods fell 1.2 percent, with declines for both durables and nondurables. The index for durable consumer goods moved down 0.8 percent, mostly because of a drop in the output of automotive products, while the output of nondurables was held down by sizable declines for both chemical products and consumer energy products.

Production decreased for business equipment (biggest drop since Jan 2013), construction supplies, and business supplies…

But output advanced for defense and space equipment and for materials. Among the components of materials, a drop for durables was more than offset by gains for nondurable and energy materials.

The output of utilities fell 3.5 percent in April, with declines in the indexes for both natural gas and electric utilities; demand for heating decreased last month because of temperatures that were warmer than normal.

More ‘hard’ data for The Fed to consider – time for a rate-cut?

Transitory?

end

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Esther George is one of the hawks at the Fed.  She warns against cutting interest rates as she states that will lead to bubbles.  She is correct on that point..however she states that cutting rates will lead to a recession..wrong.  If the Fed raises rates a recession will surely be upon the USA

(courtesy zerohedge)

Kansas Fed President Warns Cutting Rates Will Lead To Bubbles And A Recession

Earlier this morning, amid a barrage of tweets praising US trade war strategy, Trump also touched on another key topic that has become especially sensitive to the president: the Fed’s monetary policy. Or perhaps China’s monetary policy, because in a fusion tweet addressing both, Trump said that “China will be pumping money into their system and probably reducing interest rates, as always, in order to make up for the business they are, and will be, losing. If the Federal Reserve ever did a “match,” it would be game over, we win!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

China will be pumping money into their system and probably reducing interest rates, as always, in order to make up for the business they are, and will be, losing. If the Federal Reserve ever did a “match,” it would be game over, we win! In any event, China wants a deal!

Accurate or not, and one can argue that China’s monetary policy traditionally mimicked that of the Fed, with the PBOC raising or lowering rates in lockstep with the US central bank, Trump’s tweet made it clear once again that the president is especially eager to see the Fed slash rates.

And, with the Fed once again full of doves, we are confident that they would be just as happy to comply if given the right reason.

Luckily, not everyone on the FOMC has drank the Kool-Aid, and in a speech to the Economic Club of Minnesota, Kansas City Fed President Esther George said she’s opposed to cutting interest rates in order to raise inflation to the central bank’s 2% target, warning that could lead to asset-price bubbles and ultimately an economic downturn.

Slamming an argument made last Friday by the Fed’s uber-dove, Neel Kashkari who claimed in a Bloomberg interview that only lower rates for longer can help fix inequality (clearly unaware that it is the Fed’s QE and ZIRP policies that are behind the record wealth inequality in the US), George – who luckily is a lone voice at the Fed and votes on monetary policy in 2019 – said that “lower interest rates might fuel asset price bubbles, create financial imbalances, and ultimately a recession.”

“In current circumstances, with an unemployment rate well below its projected longer-run level, I see little reason to be concerned about inflation running a bit below its longer-run objective” she added.

While she is absolutely correct that easing monetary policy will only result in an even greater asset bubble, financial markets don’t care and as we discussed yesterday, have now fully priced in at least one more rate cut this year.

Previously, Charles Evans, the uberdovish president of the Chicago Fed, said the central bank might want to consider cutting rates if inflation falls to around 1.5%.

George, however, rebutted such concerns, and said that “I am not convinced that a slight undershoot of inflation below objective requires an offsetting overshoot of the objective. The current level of inflation may perplex central bankers and financial market participants, but in the context of a growing economy and job gains, it doesn’t demand a Fed policy response.

George’s warning will fall on deaf ears: the Fed is currently considering changes to its policy framework as part of a yearlong review, with Bloomberg noting that ideas to be debated include targeting inflation of 2% over a period of time, with the Fed deliberately allowing price pressures to overshoot the target to make up for periods when inflation has been under 2%.

For now, neither the market nor George look like they will get their way: Fed officials have signaled they don’t expect to raise or cut interest rates this year and have pledged patience before making any adjustment to policy, an approach that George praised.

“This wait-and-see approach is appropriate because we have not seen upward pressures building on inflation, even though we have experienced above trend growth and a further tightening of labor markets,.”

That said, while the Kansas City Fed president repeated her forecast for solid growth this year, slowing from a first quarter supported by volatile factors, she acknowledged that global growth and trade remained a risk to her outlook, especially China.

“I see the biggest risks coming from trade policy uncertainty and slower growth abroad, particularly in China, the euro area, and the United Kingdom,’’ she said.

Finally, demonstrating that not every Fed member is a clueless career academic with zero understanding of what is going on in the economy, George said that when she talked to people or business owners they didn’t see low inflation as a problem. One can argue the opposite: that if the Fed were to actually talk to ordinary people, their biggest complaint would be that prices, when stripped of their “hedonic”, CPI-basket adjustments, are actually rising far faster than wages.

 

end

SWAMP STORIES

This is a big story.  The Bidens are big crooks and took huge bribe money form both Ukraine and China while Joe Biden was Vice President.  Schweizer wrote a book on this and demands that Hunter Biden must testify over these revelations

 

 

(Courtesy zerohedge)

Hunter Biden Must Testify Over Daddy-Linked Dealings In Ukraine, China:Schweizer

Investigative journalist Peter Schweizer has called on the Senate to invite Hunter Biden to testify about his business dealings in China and Ukraine – both of which were linked to his father, former Vice President and 2020 presidential candidate Joe Biden.

“What I’ve called for simply is for the Senate to call former second son Hunter Biden to come and testify and people look into this,” said Schweizer in an exclusive interview with The Hill. “We’re talking about large deals and large sums of money...it involves countries like China, which are America’s chief rival on the global stage.”

Embedded video

Saagar Enjeti

@esaagar

1/ NEW: @peterschweizer calls for Hunter Biden to testify before the Senate and for investigations into whether the Chinese/Ukrainian governments were seeking to influence US policy when they inked big business deals with his company https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/443637-peter-schweizer-hunter-biden-needs-to-testify-on-ukraine-china-business?rnd=1557858225 

The researcher provided an overview of Hunter Biden’s alleged business dealings with Ukrainian energy company Burisma and the Chinese government in a recent New York Post op-ed that details  payments of more than $3 million to Hunter Biden’s company during a 14-month period when his father was the point person on Ukraine policy for the Obama administration. –The Hill

“In the case of the Ukraine, the very energy company that was paying Hunter Biden millions of dollars was under investigation in the Ukraine for corruption. Ukrainian officials have claimed that Joe Biden pressured them to suspend or end that investigation. That’s in fact what the Ukraine did,” said Schweizer.

In the case of China, Hunter and his partners Chris Heinz (John Kerry’s stepson) and Heinz’s longtime associate Devon Archer began making multi-billion dollar deals “through a series of overlapping entities” after creating several LLCs. In one instance, Schweizer discovered that in 2013, then-Vice President Biden and his son Hunter flew together to China on Air Force Two – and two weeks later, Hunter’s firm inked a private equity deal for $1 billion with a subsidiary of the Chinese government’s Bank of China, which expanded to $1.5 billion, according to an article by Schweizer’s in the New York Post.

Schweizer noted last week in a New York Post Op-Ed that “Hunter Biden at the time had no background in China and had little background in private equity.”

If it sounds shocking that a vice president would shape US-China policy as his son — who has scant experience in private equity — clinched a coveted billion-dollar deal with an arm of the Chinese government, that’s because it is” –Peter Schweizer

Schweizer also referenced a report by The Hill‘s John Solomon, who reported in early May that in March of 2016, Joe Biden pressured Ukraine’s President, Petro Poroshenko, to fire its head prosecutor – who was leading a wide-ranging corruption investigation into the natural gas firm that Hunter sat on, Burisma Holdings. 

“I sa

id, ‘You’re not getting the billion.’ I’m going to be leaving here in, I think it was about six hours. I looked at them and said: ‘I’m leaving in six hours. If the prosecutor is not fired, you’re not getting the money,’” bragged Biden, recalling the conversation with Poroshenko.

Well, son of a bitch, he got fired. And they put in place someone who was solid at the time,” Biden said at the Council on Foreign Relations event – while insisting that former president Obama was complicit in the threat.

The former vice president told The New York Times in a recent statement that his son’s business dealings was not a consideration in pressuring Ukraine to fire its prosecutor general, noting the decision was made “without any regard for how it would or would not impact any business interests of his son, a private citizen.”

Hunter Biden also issued a statement declaring that “at no time have I discussed with my father the company’s business, or my board service, including my initial decision to join the board” of the Ukrainian energy company. –The Hill

Solomon reviewed the general prosecutor’s file for the Burisma probe – which he reports shows Hunter Biden, his business partner Devon Archer and their firm, Rosemont Seneca, as potential recipients of money.

And before he was fired, Shokin says he had made “specific plans” for the investigation – including“interrogations and other crime-investigation procedures into all members of the executive board, including Hunter Biden.

end

This is big!!  USA Attorney Joe DiGenova tells Laura Ingram that John Durham has already been on the case for a couple of months now. He states that John Brennan, the orchestra leader and Comey are in big trouble.  Also the issuance of those FISA applications will probably cause headaches for many in the Democratic field.

(courtesy/Ingram Angle)

BOOM! Joe diGenova: For the First Time I Believe These Guys are Going to Jail… This is Big Time! Brennan and Comey Needs 5 Attorneys (VIDEO)

On Tuesday night Joe diGenova joined Laura Ingraham on the Ingraham Angle to discuss the latest development in the spygate scandal that Bill Barr appointed US Attorney John Durham to investigate the origins of the Trump-Russia collusion probe.

Joe-diGenova did not hold back. The former US Attorney for Washington DC told Laura and her audience that Comey and Brennan are in serious trouble and better be lawyered up.

 

Joe diGenova: This is very serious business. For the first time I believe some of these guys are going to prison… Let me tell you something, Horowitz has already concluded that the final three FISAs were completely illegal. He’s now on the brink of finding that the first FISA was completely illegal. Durham has already used a grand jury in Connecticut. They’ve already gotten documents. He’s already talked to the intel people.

Laura Ingraham: How long has this been going on?

Joe diGenova: Durham’s been working for a couple months. The bottom line is this. This is now – big time! This is where Brennan needs five lawyers. Comey needs five lawyers.

Via The Ingraham Angle:

end

What a joke:  He now know that Andrew Weissmann hand picked all of those “angry Democrats” to lead the witch hunt against Trump et al

(courtesy zerohedge)

FOIA Docs: Mueller Top Prosecutor Andrew Weissmann Hand-Picked Team of “Angry Democrats”

When Trump called the Mueller investigators “18 angry Democrats,” he wasn’t kidding.

According to 73 pages of records obtained by Judicial WatchMueller special counsel prosecutor Andrew Weissmann led the hiring effort for the team that investigated the Trump campaign.

Notably, Weissman attended Hillary Clinton’s election night party in 2016, and wrote a positive email to former Acting Attorney General Sally Yates when she refused to defend the Trump administration’s travel ban. And as you will see below, he was on a mission to recruit a politically biased fleet of lawyers for the Mueller probe.

“These documents show Andrew Weissmann, an anti-Trump activist, had a hand in hiring key members of Mueller’s team – who also happened to be political opponents of President Trump,” said Judicial Watch President, Tom Fitton. “These documents show that Mueller outsourced his hiring decisions to Andrew Weissmann. No wonder it took well over a year to get this basic information and, yet, the Deep State DOJ is still stonewalling on other Weissmann documents!”

Weissman’s calendar shows that he began interviewing people for investigator jobs on the Mueller operation almost immediately after it was announced that he had joined the team in early June.

On June 5, 2017, he interviewed former Chief of the Public Corruption Unit of the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York Andrew Goldstein. Goldstein was a Time magazine reporter. Goldstein contributed a combined $3,300 to Obama’s campaigns in 2008 and 2012. His wife, Julie Rawe, was a reporter and editor for Time for 13 years, until 2013. He became a lead prosecutor for Mueller.

The next day, on June 6, 2017 Weissmann had a meeting with “FARA [Foreign Agents Registration Act] counsel.”

Weissmann interviewed another prosecutor, Kyle Freeny, from the DOJ Money Laundering Section for the team on June 7, 2017. She contributed a total of $500 to Obama’s presidential campaigns and $250 to Hillary Clinton’s. She was later detailed to the Mueller investigation.

He interviewed a trial attorney who worked with him in the Criminal Fraud Section, Rush Atkinson, on June 9, 2017. Records show that Atkinson donated $200 to Clinton’s campaign in 2016. He is a registered Democrat and contributed $200 to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign. Atkinson also became part of the Mueller team.

Weissmann interviewed DOJ Deputy Assistant Attorney General Greg Andres for the team on June 13, 2017. Andres donated $2,700 to the campaign for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) in 2018 and $1,000 to the campaign for David Hoffman (D) in 2009. Andres is a registered Democrat. His wife, Ronnie Abrams, a U.S. district judge in Manhattan, was nominated to the bench in 2011 by Obama. He joined the Mueller team in August 2017. –Judicial Watch

“Judicial Watch previously released documents showing strong support by Weissmann for former Acting Attorney General Sally Yates’ refusal to enforce President Trump’s Middle East travel ban executive order. Weissmann reportedly also attended Hillary Clinton’s Election Night party in New York,” the report concludes.

end

White HOuse tells Nadler that there is no “do over” with respect to the Russian collusion hoax. It is over…

(courtesy zerohedge)

No “Do-Over” On Russia Investigation: White House Tells Nadler To Pound Sand

White House counsel Pat Cipollone wrote in a Wednesday letter to House Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) that Congress doesn’t get a “do over” of special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation and others conducted by the Justice Department.

Nadler has led recent efforts in the Democratic-controlled House to continue, which are set to include hearings with Mueller himself, along with key witnesses in his investigation.

“Congressional investigations are intended to obtain information to aid in evaluating potential legislation, not to harass political opponents or to pursue an unauthorized ‘do-over’ of exhaustive law enforcement investigations conducted by the Department of Justice,” reads the 12-page letter laying out a legal argument for why Nadler is overstepping his bounds.

 

Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY)

The letter goes on to say “As presently framed, the Committee’s inquiries transparently amount to little more than an attempt to duplicate – and supplant – law enforcement inquiries, and apparently to do so simply because the actual law enforcement investigations conducted by the Department of Justice did not reach a conclusion favored by some members of the Committee.

“This is not a proper legislative purpose,” writes Cipollone.

While the letter does not invoke executive privilege over any of the documents requested — and leaves the door open to a more narrow request from House Democrats — White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders said last week that President Trump “has no other option than to make a protective assertion of executive privilege” over the full, unredacted Mueller report itself. –Axios

end

The following is a must read:  Barr investigator John Durham once probed Mueller ina shocking case that ended up overturning a case which sent 4 innocent people to prison

and it cost the uSA government over 100 million in damages.

The truth behind Mueller…

(courtesy S Noble/IndependentSentinel.com)

Barr’s Investigator John Durham Once Probed Mueller In A Shocking Case

Authored by S.Noble via IndependentSentinel.com,

Connecticut U.S. Attorney John Durham was appointed to investigate the origins of the Russia-Trump probe. Apparently, he has been on the job for weeks.

Durham is the perfect investigator for the job by all accounts and he had experience with Robert Mueller in the Whitey Bulger case.

He did not side with Mueller and Mueller’s agents suffered the consequences of Mueller’s, some would say, corrupt leadership.

THE WHITEY BULGER CASE

Back in the late 1990s, there were “allegations that FBI informants James ‘Whitey’ Bulger and Stephen ‘The Rifleman’ Flemmi had corrupted their handlers.

So, in 1999, Janet Reno appointed John Durham as Special Prosecutor and charged him with investigating FBI corruption in Boston.

As it turned out, FBI agents aided mass murderer, Whitey Bulger and hid his crimes. Bulger was a protected informant.

Durham sent one agent involved to prison for 10 years.

Then-US Attorney, Robert Mueller is probably the one who should have landed in the pen. He allowed four innocent men to be sent to prison for a murder he knew they didn’t commit.  He did it to protect Bulger.

One of the four men was in Florida at the time of the murder and could not have committed the murder.

When Durham went through the documents. He found that the four men, Enrico TameleoJoseph SalvatiPeter J. Limone, and Louis Greco, had actually been framed.

Four people who were innocent were kept in jail for years in order to protect the status of Whitey Bulger as an FBI informant.

The Boston Globe wrote:

“[Mike] Albano [former Parole Board Member who was threatened by two F.B.I. agents for considering parole for the men imprisoned for a crime they did not commit] was appalled that, later that same year, Mueller was appointed FBI director, because it was Mueller, first as an assistant US attorney then as the acting U.S. attorney in Boston, who wrote letters to the parole and pardons board throughout the 1980s opposing clemency for the four men framed by FBI lies. Of course, Mueller was also in that position while Whitey Bulger was helping the FBI cart off his criminal competitors even as he buried bodies in shallow graves along the Neponset…”

In December 2000, Durham revealed secret FBI documents that convinced a judge to vacate the 1968 murder convictions of ”four other FBI informants because they’d been framed by Robert Mueller’s FBI.

“In 2007,” to help protect Whitey Bulger (that’s what all those people were held in jail for) “the documents helped Salvati, Limone, and the families of the two other men who had died in prison to win a US $101.7 million civil judgment against the government.”

Durham got the two surviving framed men released from prison.

Robert Mueller was knee-deep in this scandal, along with Andrew Weissman and the agent sent to prison, but because Reno gave him very limited authority, Durham was not able to prosecute Mueller, who was not in the FBI at the time.

Mueller kept four innocent people in jail for years to protect the informant status of Whitey Bulger, a mass-murdering Boston mobster who ended up dying in California, and it ended up costing the government $100 million plus in civil judgments.

ALAN DERSHOWITZ CALLED MUELLER A “ZEALOT”

Harvard professor Alan Dershowitz, calling Mueller a “zealot,” he reminded Mueller supporters about the former FBI director’s role in protecting “notorious mass murderer” Whitey Bulger as an FBI informant.

“I think Mueller is a zealot,” Dershowitz told “The Cats Roundtable” on 970 AM-N.Y. “. . . I don’t think he cares whether he hurts Democrats or Republicans, but he’s a partisan and zealot.

“He’s the guy who kept four innocent people in prison for many years in order to protect the cover of Whitey Bulger as an FBI informer. Those of us in Boston don’t have such high regard for Mueller because we remember this story. The government had to pay out tens of millions of dollars because Whitey Bulger, a notorious mass murderer, became a government informer against the mafia . . .

“And that’s regarded in Boston of one of the great scandals of modern judicial history. And Mueller was right at the center of it. So, he is not without criticism by people who know him in Boston.”

HOW DID MUELLER BECOME THE SPECIAL PROSECUTOR?

There were other cases in which Mueller behaved scandalously, here and here. Former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, Sydney Powell tells the same story. She calls them creeps on a mission and has a website of the same name detailing the offenses of Mueller and Weissman.

How did Robert Mueller end up as the Special Prosecutor? Thank a Democrat. The Democrats insisted he was a great man of inviolable character. They said he was the impeccable man and investigator.

There is also the fact that Rod Rosenstein seems to think well of him.

You can be sure there are a lot of people losing sleep knowing Durham is on the case. You might have noticed Rod Rosenstein, the former Deputy Attorney General, is out trashing Jim Comey.

For his part, Jim Comey hasn’t written anything inspirational or anti-Trump on Twitter for four days. He has been giving a lot of public speeches lately. Maybe he should shut up.

SWAMP STORIES/KEY STORIES/KING REPORT

(COURTESY OF CHRIS POWELL OF GATA)

Trump verbally intervened again early on Tuesday, imploring the Fed to cut rates to help the US win the trade war.  Dolts and algos keep buying Trump’s BS.  This is what passes for high finance now.

@realDonaldTrump: China buys MUCH less from us than we buy from them, by almost 500 Billion Dollars, so we are in a fantastic position. Make your product at home in the USA and there is no Tariff. You can also buy from a non-Tariffed country instead of China. Many companies are leaving China.

    China will be pumping money into their system and probably reducing interest rates, as always, in order to make up for the business they are, and will be, losing. If the Federal Reserve ever did a “match,” it would be game over, we win! In any event, China wants a deal!

Trump’s above latter tweet was co-opted from the Street.  On Monday night, after the stock carnage, some pundits proffered the notion that a trade war would be good for stocks because it would force the PBoC to cuts rates and pump credit to keep China’s economy from recession.

US stocks jumped at midday when NY Fed President Williams issued verbal intervention.

Fed’s Williams says policymakers need to better prepare for lower interest rate world

Lower birthrates are keeping population growth down in the world’s wealthier economies and technological advancement has shifted down to more normal levels. Each trend is capping how much economies can grow, Williams said… there is no sign that “neutral” rates will go back to previously normal levels absent a change in demographics or a scientific or technological breakthrough

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-williams-idUSKCN1SK0OL

Fed’s George Warns Rate Cut Could Lead to Bubbles and Recession

“Lower interest rates might fuel asset price bubbles, create financial imbalances, and ultimately a recession,’’ George, who votes on monetary policy this year, said Tuesday to the Economic Club of Minnesota. “In current circumstances, with an unemployment rate well below its projected longer-run level, I see little reason to be concerned about inflation running a bit below its longer-run objective.”…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-14/fed-s-george-warns-rate-cut-could-lead-to-bubbles-and-recession

George, from the Heartland, hears a different inflation perspective than financial centers and elites.

George: As I listen to business and community leaders around my region, I hear few complaints about inflation being too low. In fact, I am more likely to hear disbelief when I mention that inflation is as low as measured in a number of key sectors. This leads me to the observation that inflation as experienced by households and businesses is fundamentally different from inflation as viewed by financial market participants and many economists

    Steering what is currently a low and stable rate of inflation up by 20-50 basis points to reach a precise numerical target, while disregarding the labor market, the other leg of our dual mandate, strikes me as a degree of fine-tuning that goes beyond our span of control.

https://www.kansascityfed.org/~/media/files/publicat/speeches/2019/econclubofminneapolis2019may13egfinal_gk.pd

rump’s long trade war – Senior administration officials tell Axios that a trade deal with China isn’t close and that the U.S. could be in for a long trade war.

    Trump’s mindset on the Chinese is simple: They only respond to shows of brute force.  And he thinks they’ll suffer more than America will, because they buy fewer products… And as one former aide said: There’s little point trying to persuade Trump otherwise, because his belief in tariffs is “like theology.”…

https://www.axios.com/donald-trump-us-china-trade-war-tariffs-deal-e154abe0-a00e-4c2f-8caa-1e9a6f370238.html

Chinese media calls for ‘people’s war’ as US trade war heats up

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/14/asia/china-us-beijing-propaganda-intl/index.html

@HuXijin_GT: US stocks rebound quickly, interesting. Looks like both sides have resources to sustain their will. What’s important is neither side should have the illusion they can easily win over the other.After all they’re both major powers. Trade game may last longer than many think it will

Kyle Bass Exits Yuan Short Bet Just as Trade War Really Heats Up

“I think this is such an important moment in time for U.S. national security that all the work that I’ve done over the last seven years is moving more into the political sphere than the financial sphere.”..

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-14/kyle-bass-exits-yuan-short-bet-just-as-trade-war-really-heats-up

Nuclear Option? China Has Already Lost A Possible Trade War.  14 April, 2018

China needs the U.S. surplus more than the U.S. needs China’s trade and finances… the pistols are loaded with debt, not with gunpowder…

    China badly needs the surplus with the United States to keep its extremely indebted growth model, way more than the United States needs China’s purchases of debt of goods…

    China cannot win a trade war with high debt, capital controls and US exports’ dependence…

    China does not have a nuclear option on the U.S. debt. For once, it is not the main owner of U.S, bonds, not even close (China is less than 8.6% of U.S. bonds outstanding)…

    China cannot maintain its growth – based on a huge debt bubble – if its exports fall…

https://www.dlacalle.com/en/nuclear-option-china-has-already-lost-a-possible-trade-war/

Saudi Arabia oil stations attacked by drones

Earlier, a television station run by Yemen’s Houthi group said on Tuesday the Iran-aligned movement had launched drone attacks on Saudi installations, without identifying the targets or time of the attacks…    https://gulfnews.com/world/gulf/saudi/saudi-arabia-oil-stations-attacked-by-drones-1.63934993

Total Household Debt Rises for 19th Straight Quarter, Now Nearly $1 Trillion above Previous Peak

Total household debt increased by $124 billion (0.9%) to $13.67 trillion in the first quarter of 2019…

    “The rate at which credit card balances become delinquent has been rising, and that has coincided with an increase in younger borrowers entering the credit card market… However, these delinquency rates are increasing from historically low levels and remain below pre-financial-crisis levels.”… https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2019/05/just-released-shifts-in-credit-market-participation-over-two-decades.html

 

Looking at the real tax numbers

H&R Block reported … the average American paid 25% less in taxes this past year. That sounds like a tax cut…  https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/may/13/how-the-trump-tax-bill-really-did-cut-taxes/

 

Solomon: State Department’s red flag on Steele went to a senior FBI man well before FISA warrant

The recipient of the State Department email was Special Agent Stephen Laycock…Officials tell me that Laycock immediately forwarded the information he received about Steele on Oct. 13, 2016, to the FBI team leading the Trump-Russia investigation, headed by then-fellow Special Agent Peter Strzok…the email exchange means FBI supervisors knew Steele had contact with State and had reason to inquire what he was saying before they sought the warrant

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/443710-state-departments-red-flag-on-steele-went-to-a-senior-fbi-man-well-before#.XNtJ-Pn_-4g.twitter

 

CIA, FBI, Director of National Intelligence working with Attorney General Barr to review Russia probe origins – US Attorney John Huber in Utah is no longer involved on Russia issues… Huber’s review of other issues related to Hillary Clinton and the Clinton Foundation is nearing completion…

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/14/politics/russia-investigation-origin-barr-haspel-coats-wray/index.html

 

OAN’s @EmeraldRobinson: Based on what President Trump told me today, it’s probably time for FBI Director Christopher Wray to update his resume on @LinkedIn

 

@RepMattGaetz: [DNI] Dan Coats has over 50 transcripts from Clapper, Comey, Brennan, and McCabe that have been voted out of the House Intel Committee to be declassified. We need to get to the bottom of where these lies existed and how this terrible investigation started.

 

@nytimes: “Attorney General Janet Reno asked Mr. Durham in 1999 to investigate the F.B.I.’s handling of a notorious informant: the organized crime leader James (Whitey) Bulger.”

 

In 2009, AG Eric Holder appointed Durham to investigate the legality of CIA’s use of “enhanced interrogation techniques”. Durham was a go-to prosecutor for Dem AGs.

 

Clapper: “We Don’t Need another Investigation of Investigators…Barr Should Wait for IG Report”    https://saraacarter.com/clapper-we-dont-need-another-investigation-of-investigators-barr-should-wait-for-ig-report/

 

The appointment of Durham was not publicly announced, but reporters from outlets such as Fox News, USA Today, and the New York Times were quietly informed of the move…

In January, House Republican Reps. Jim Jordan and Mark Meadows wrote to Durham seeking a briefing, saying they had “discovered” that Durham’s office was “investigating former FBI General Counsel James Baker” for unauthorized disclosures to the media…

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/05/_if_a_speedy_uncovering_of_corruption_is_an_issue_this_is_a_good_move.html

 

@johnrobertsFox: Sources tell @FoxNews that CT US Attorney John Durham has been working on the investigation into the origins of the FBI’s counterintelligence investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election and the Trump Campaign for “weeks.”

 

Radio Free Europe’s @ChristopherJM: Ukraine Prosecutor General Lutsenko at presser claims MP @Leshchenkos meddled in 2016 US elex, says he may be subpoenaed to reveal ‘black ledger’ source (tho he wasn’t first to release it). Also accuses @USEmbassyKyiv of aiding him; and Burisma probe open.

 

@seanmdav: An FBI lawyer was busted for shoplifting at the Marine Corps BX in Quantico. She repeatedly stole items from the Marine BX, as well as from private stores. DOJ asked the FBI lawyer to do 125 hours community service, then dismissed all charges against her  https://oig.justice.gov/reports/2019/f190514.pdf

end

WILL SEE YOU THURSDAY NIGHT

I AM PROVIDING A LITTLE ADVANCE WARNING THAT ON MAY 23.2019 I WILL NOT PROVIDE A COMMENTARY. HOWEVER LATE IN THE EVENING I WILL PROVIDE ONLY THE COMEX DATA.

 

 

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