MAY 16//RAID ON THE PRECIOUS METALS: GOLD DOWN $11.10 TO $1285.95//SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TO $14.55/TRUMP INITIATES A BAN ON CHINA’S HUAWEI//CHINESE YUAN (OFFSHORE) PLUMMETS TO 6.93 TO THE DOLLAR//THEN CHINA RESPONDS BY CHARGING TWO CANADIANS WITH ESPIONAGE//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1285.95  DOWN $11.10 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $14.55 DOWN 26 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold : 1286.70

 

 

 

silver:  $14.58

 

OPTIONS EXPIRY FOR THE STOCK MARKET AND GLD/SLV IS TOMORROW

COMEX EXPIRY FOR GOLD/SILVER:  TUES MAY 28/2019

 

LBMA/OTC EXPIRY: MAY 31.2019

 

 

I do not know who said the following but it fits:
“when you have counter-intuitive trading happening all the time, you have rigged markets”

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,296.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/15/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 05/17/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 4
661 C JP MORGAN 39 33
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 11 17
905 C ADM 5
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 55 55
MONTH TO DATE: 288

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 55 NOTICE(S) FOR 5500 OZ (0.1710 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  288 NOTICES FOR 28800 OZ  (.8958 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MAY

 

 

4 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 20,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 3377 for 16,885,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :$7946  DOWN $285

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $7820 DOWN $338

 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 530 CONTRACTS FROM 203,788 UP TO 204,318 WITH YESTERDAY’S  2 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. ,LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED FOR SILVER BUT IT NOW IN FULL FORCE FOR GOLD. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

 0 FOR MAY, 0 FOR JUNE, 263 FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  263 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 435 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 263 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 1.315 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 2 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

AND NOW 18.355 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MAY:

13,566 CONTRACTS (FOR 12 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 13,566 CONTRACTS) OR 67,83 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1131 CONTRACTS OR 5.653 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY:  67.83 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 9.69% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          808.93    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 530 WITH THE TINY 2 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 263 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS RESUMED THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES TODAY.

 

TODAY WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED: 793 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 263 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 530  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 2 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.81 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.022 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 145% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 4 NOTICE(S) FOR  20,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ AND NOW MAY:  18.355 MILLION OZ ..
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6360 CONTRACTS, TO 526,224 DESPITE THE TINY RISE IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(AN INCREASE IN PRICE OF $1.50//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 5454 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 5454 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS, JUNE 2020  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 524,355.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,814 CONTRACTS: 6330 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 5454 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 11,814 CONTRACTS OR 1,181,400 OZ OR 36.75 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A TINY GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF  $1.50….AND WITH THAT TINY GAIN, WE  HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 36.75  TONNES!!!!!!.?????? 

WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING: NOT TO NOTICEABLE WITH TODAY’S FALL IN PRICE

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS HAVE NOW SWITCHED TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF  SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 70,859 CONTRACTS OR 7,085,900 OR 220.40 TONNES (12 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5904 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 220.40 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 220.40/3550 x 100% TONNES =6.20% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     2035.95 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 6360 DESPITE THE TINY RISE IN PRICING ($1.50) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A  GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5454 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5454 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 11,814 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5454 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 6360 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 36.75 TONNES). ..AND THIS HUMONGOUS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A TINY RISE IN PRICE OF $1.50 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE NO DOUBT HAD A STRONG PRESENCE OF SPREADING TODAY.

 

 

 

we had:  55 notice(s) filed upon for 5500 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $11.10  TODAY

WE HAVE A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.23 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.

STRANGE THIS IS THE EXACT DEPOSIT AMOUNT PUT INTO THE GLD ON MAY 14//.

 

 

 

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORy

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY:

A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.031 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 530 CONTRACTS from 203,788 UPTO 204,318 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED THEIR LIQUIDATION IN SILVER BUT HAVE NOW MORPHED INTO GOLD..

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE:

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 0 FOR MAY, FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 263 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 263 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 637 CONTRACTS TO THE 263 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL GAIN OF 793 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4.5 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL AND NOW 18.355 MILLION OZ FOR MAY

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE TINY 2 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 263 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 17,03 POINTS OR 0.58%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 6.36 POINTS OR 0.02%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 125.58 POINTS OR 0.59%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .74%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8884 /Oil UP to 61.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.08 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8884 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9072 TRADE TALKS STILL ON//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

i)NORTH KOREA

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 China/Chinese affairs

i)China/Huawei

 

Huawei responds to the tech ban and in a concession to Trump the company states that it is willing “to engage to ensure the product safety.”  It seems that Trump was right that Huawei was using its products for spying purposes.

( zerohedge)

ii)CHINA/CANADA

NOT GOOD!! Two Canadians held by Beijing in December are now facing the death penalty as they are being charged on espionage.  No doubt that these are related to the Meng (CFO Huawei) arrest.

( zerohedge)

iii)Serious stuff going on in Washington with their nuclear option against Huawei. Huawei has offered to open up its devices in order for the USA to feel secure form spying. The USA counters by putting Huawei on the “Entity list” which would ban USA corporations from dealing with the company.  Also, the timing for China seems odd that on the day that the USA puts Huawei on the “entity list” two Canadians were arrested for espionage and could face the death sentence.  I guess travel to China is now out of the question.

(zerohedge)

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)FRANCE

An excellent commentary on the state of affairs in France which has the highest social spending per GDP in the world at 31%.  The social spending in totally non productive.  France incomes are falling below even America’s poorest states. I guess this is the reason for the Yellow Vest Movement as they feel the pain inside France

( Ryan McMaken/ Mises)

ii)Now that the USA has finished issuing fines to our favourite bankers, the EU has now started as they fined 5 banks 1.2 billion dollars in a FX cartel case

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

a)SAUDI ARABIA/IRAN/YEMEN

The Saudis now claim the Iran has carried out the Aramco Pipeline attack in Saudi Arabia using drones. We now have footage and it is extensive.

The USA are not happy campers on this issue.  Remember that the USA carrier Lincoln will be entering the Gulf shortly.

(courtesy zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

THE GLOBE

Maersk, the largest shipping company in the world sees a significant slowdown in business activity as the third largest transshipment port in the Mediterranean, located on the island of Malta.

Maersk is now going to shift operations from Malta to other African ports due to the slowdown

( zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

A mystery tanker violates USA sanctions by unloading oil to China

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

VENEZUELA

Officially the uSA suspends all passenger and cargo flights to Venezuela

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//

 

 

 

ii)Market data

ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)This is the continuing story by Brandon Smith on how the USA hegemony will end.  We are witnessing the globalists in their attack on the populist movement. There is no question that the USA cannot win in their trade battle with China.  You will recall Alasdair Macleod prove that unless the uSA citizens become savers, then trade deficits will continue despite the trade war. The following article is important and we must be cognizant of what might happen:  China and the rest of the world will liquidate their vast USA treasuries sending the USA into a hyperinflation panic. The Globalist goal:  one government, one currency..and the USA must go.

a must read…

(courtesy Brandon Smith/AltMarket.com)

b)The tariffs are killing USA farmers.

(courtesy Mac Slavo)

c)Too much rain has killed off much the corn planting

(courtesy michael Snyder)

SWAMP STORIES

What a riot: there is now a dispute as to whether it was Comey or Brennan who pushed the Steele dossier:  i.e. to be included into the intelligence community assessment

( zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 6360 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 526,224 DESPITE THE TINY RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($1.50) IN YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5454 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

0 FOR JUNE ’19: 5454 CONTRACTS , DEC; 0 CONTRACTS: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5454 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 11,814 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5454 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A VERY STRONG  SIZED 6360 COMEX CONTRACTS.

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES : 11,814 contracts OR 1,181,400 OZ OR 39.65 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of MAY and here the open interest stands at 123 contracts, having GAINED 2 contracts. We had 1 notices served yesterday so we gained 3 contracts or an additional 300  oz will stand as they guys refused to morph into a London based forward as well as negating a fiat bonus

The next contract month after May is June and here the open interest FELL by 1215 contracts DOWN to 279,612.  July GAINED 2 contracts to stand at 70.  After July the next active month is August and here the OI rose by 5241 contracts up to 159,287 contracts.

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 55 NOTICE FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  5500  OZ. (0.1710 TONNES)

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 530 CONTRACTS FROM 203,788 UP TO 204,318 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S TINY OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A  2 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.  HERE WE HAVE 298 OPEN INTEREST STAND SO FAR FOR A GAIN OF  3 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 0 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO IN ESSENCE WE GAINED ANOTHER  3 CONTRACT OR AN ADDITIONAL 15,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. SILVER MUST BE SCARCE AT THE COMEX. QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE. WE HAVE NOW SURPASSED THE INITIAL AMOUNT STANDING WHICH OCCURRED ON APRIL 30.2019

 

 

 

THE NEXT MONTH AFTER MAY IS THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF  JUNE.  HERE THIS MONTH LOST 16 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 717. AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY, (THE SECOND LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR FOR SILVER) AND HERE THIS MONTH GAINED 103 CONTRACTS UP TO 154,050 CONTRACTS. THE NEXT ACTIVE MONTH AFTER JULY FOR SILVER IS SEPTEMBER AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 292 DOWN TO 19,054 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 4 notice(s) filed for 20,000 OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 142,269  CONTRACTS 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  273,292  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  MAY/GOLD

MAY 16 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
514.400
oz
16 kilobars
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
55 notice(s)
 5500 OZ
(0.1710 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
68 contracts
(6800 oz)
0.2115 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
288 notices
28800 OZ
.8958 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: 0

 

 

total gold deposits: 0  oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside/ nothing arrived   today

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

Gold withdrawals;

i)  We had 1 withdrawal:

from the Bank of Nova Scotia:  514.400 oz

16 kilobars

 

.

total gold withdrawals;    514.400 oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustments today

FOR THE MAY 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 39 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 55 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 33 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (288) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (123 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (55 x 100 oz per contract) equals 35,600 OZ OR 1.107 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of MAY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (288 x 100 oz)  + (123)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (55 x 100 oz )which equals 35,600 oz standing OR 1.107 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of MAY.

We gained 3 contracts or an additional 300 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into a London based forwards. Queue jumping continues where we left off last month in gold and for that matter in silver.  We now have two precious metals undergoing queue jumping as the bankers scramble to obtain physical metal.

 

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 6.632 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 1.107 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

IF THIS IS GOING ON IN MAY, I JUST CANNOT WAIT TO SEE WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN JUNE WHICH IS A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  213,219.982 oz or  6.632tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,701,987.623 oz 239.56 tonnes

 

 

FOR COMPARISON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR MAY 2018 AND FINAL STANDING MAY 31 2018

 

 

AT FIRST DAY NOTICE MAY 1 2018: WE HAD 1.284 TONNES OF GOLD STAND.  BY MONTH’S END:  2.27 TONNES AS WE HAD ONE QUEUE JUMPING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

IN THE LAST 32 MONTHS 116 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
MAY 16 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,073,733.093 oz
BRINS
CNT
BNS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
NIL oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
4
CONTRACT(S)
(20,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
294 contracts
1,470,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3377 contracts

16,885,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: NIL  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 149.469 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.80% of all official comex silver. (149 million/307 million)

 

into EVERYBODY ELSE:  NIL OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  nil  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of Brinks:  599,864.240 oz

ii) Out of CNT; 69,318.193 oz
iii) Out of Scotia:  600,132.150 oz

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals:  1,073,733.093 oz

 

we had 0 adjustment :

i

 

total dealer silver:  92.179 million

total dealer + customer silver:  305.853 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MAY 2019. contract month is represented by 4 contract(s) FOR  20,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3374 x 5,000 oz = 16,885,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (298) and the number of notices served upon today (4 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY/2019 contract month: 3374(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY( 298) -number of notices served upon today (4)x 5000 oz equals 18,355,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month.

We GAINED 3 contracts or an additional 15,000 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus for their efforts.

 

 

 

FOR COMPARISON VS LAST YEAR:

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE APRIL 30/2018 (FOR THE MAY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH) WE HAD 24.11 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY.  BY MONTH END WE HAD HUGE QUEUE JUMPING AND THUS 36.285 MILLION OZ EVENTUALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY.

 

 

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  24,120 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 46,191 CONTRACTS..

 

..

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 46,191 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 230 million  OZ 32.9% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -4.42% (MAY 16/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -2.05% to NAV (MAY 16/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.42%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.91 TRADING 12.36/DISCOUNT 4.22

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MAY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.50: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.23 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 15/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

MAY 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45 TODAY: STRANGE!! THE CROOKS DECIDED TO DEPOSIT A HUGE 3.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

MAY 13/ WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $15.40 TODAY: STRANGE! A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.41 TONNES OF GOLD (TO TAME GOLD’S RISE TODAY)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 10 WITH GOLD UP $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 9//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 7/ WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $9.35 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.52

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD UP $4.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES//

APRIL 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD UP $9.2//ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 746.69 TONNES TONNES

APRIL 25//WITH GOLD UP $.05 TODAY  (BASICALLY FLAT) NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

 

APRIL 24 WITH GOLD UP  $6.00 TODAY// TWO TRANSACTIONS: 1)A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.05 TONNES FROM THE GLD AND THEN II) ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.87 TONNES

APRIL 23./WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES//

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD UP $1.75//A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 751.68 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT752.27 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES AT THE GLD WHICH WAS USED IN YESTERDAY’S RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 752.27 TONNES

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.60 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.82 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.03

APRIL 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $2.10 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757..85 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.85 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.45 AGAIN TODAY, THE CROOKS AGAIN RAIDED THE COOKE JAR BY 2.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.85 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.49 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN BY $6.40: THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR AGAIN BY .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 761.67 TONNES.

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD UP$1.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF PHYSICAL GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.55 TONNES

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.29 TONNES

APRIL 3:WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS: ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL: 3.81 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT  764.29 TONNES

APRIL 2//WOW! WE LOST A WHOPPING 16.16 TONNES OF GOLD WITH A RISE IN PRICE OF $1.80//INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.10

 

 

 

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MAY 16/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 736.46 tonnes

*IN LAST 594 TRADING DAYS: 200.74NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 494 TRADING DAYS: A NET 34.90 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN LOST INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MAY 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ//

MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV  INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.031 MILLION OZ//  THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ.

MAY 14/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

MAY 13//WITH SILVE5 DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ…

MAY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///

MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///

MAY 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 891,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

MAY 3//WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 843,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/TOTAL INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.691 MILLION OZ//

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 13 CENTS, MIRACUOUSLY THE AUTHORITIES ADD 2.869 MILLION OZ OF SILVER BACK INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.848 MILLION OZ//

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ////

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 29/ WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 26//WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 23./WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A SHOCKING 2.8122 MILLION PAPER OZ WERE ADDED INTO SLV INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15: WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 12 WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 750,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.917 MILLION OZ//

April 10/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:  THE CROOKS CANNOT RAID ANY SILVER BECAUSE THERE IS NONE: INVENTORY RETS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 4/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP TWO CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/ WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ FROM THE SLV TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.167

 

 

 

MAY 16/2019:

 

Inventory 315.551 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.12/ and libor 6 month duration 2.55

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .43

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.33%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.63

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.30

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

3 Charts Warning Investors To Rebalance Portfolios

by Frank Holmes via SeekingAlpha.com

Before we get to looking at those three charts, let’s talk about the trade war.

On Friday the Trump administration made good on its threat to raise tariffs on as much as $200 billion worth of Chinese imports to 25 percent from the previous 10 percent. The president also said that a decision could be made soon on whether to impose the same 25 percent rate on an additional $325 billion of Chinese goods, which, all told, would cover approximately the total amount of goods the U.S. imported from China in 2018.

So what does this mean?

Besides being a strain on international relations—a tariff is essentially a tax that must be paid to the U.S. government before a shipment can clear customs. But here’s the kicker: Tariffs are typically paid not by the exporting company but by the importer. In other words, it’s U.S.-based companies that are picking up the tab—then passing the extra expense on to American consumers.

With the exception of the U.S. Treasury, which collects the tariff payments, few stand to benefit here. A February study by Washington, D.C.-based Trade Partnership Worldwide (TPW) estimated that 25 percent tariffs on Chinese goods cost families of four close to $2,300 extra on average per year. They also have the potential to impact upwards of 2.2 million American jobs as well as risk diverting trade to other markets.

“By any measure, the imposition of tariffs by the United States and U.S. imports of steel, aluminum, motor vehicles and parts… is a net loss for the U.S. economy and U.S. workers,” the report reads. Workers “experience greater losses than gains,” and in many cases, according to TPW, “the tariff actions erase all of the anticipated gains from tax reform.”

Market Sentiment at Its Lowest in 10 Months

Stocks sold off last week on the tariff news and plunged even further Monday after China announced that it would retaliate.

Equities are now officially in oversold territory. Our own U.S. Global Sentiment Indicator,which tracks as many as 126 commodities, indices, sectors, currencies and international markets, calculates the percentage of positions whose five-day moving averages are above or below their 20-day moving averages. Then we compare the data to the S&P 500 Index. Last week the sentiment indicator fell to 20 percent, showing that the market is at its most oversold since July 2018. Statistically, we should expect to see a bounce.

Stocks may still have further to slide before a resolution to the trade dispute is reached. But for now this could be a good opportunity for investors to pick up some distressed stocks as we await mean reversion. I recommend that investors who seek to get access to the robust U.S. economy but limit their exposure to international trade would do well to look at high-quality small and mid-cap equities. Smaller firms, those with market caps between $1 billion and $10 billion, have the potential to outperform right now because they rely much less on trade than their larger multinational peers. They’re also supported by a stronger U.S. dollar.

I would also recommend considering government and investment-grade municipal bonds, which historically have helped investors improve their risk-adjusted returns in times of economic uncertainty. And of course there’s always exposure to gold and other metals that are expected to be in greater demand in the coming years, copper chief among them.

This leads us to the main event. Below are three charts that I think will convince investors that time is running out to prepare for the next major downturn. All charts and data were brought to my attention by Michael Kantrowitz, head of portfolio strategy at market research firm Cornerstone Macro, who visited our office last week.

1.      Is U.S. Manufacturing Growth Projected to Stall?

The ISM Manufacturing Index for the U.S. fell sharply in April to 52.8, down from 55.3 in March. This means that although the manufacturing sector is still expanding, it’s doing so at a much slower pace. What’s more, the manufacturing index could soon fall below 50.0, indicating a slowdown. For this we’d largely have the Federal Reserve to thank.

That’s according to Michael, who pointed out to us that every Fed tightening cycle going back to the 1950s has preceded a pullback in the ISM Manufacturing Index. And each of these pullbacks coincided with an economic recession and/or market selloff. (One notable exception was 1995, when the market continued to rally despite manufacturing weakness.)

So will this time be different?

I’ll let my friend Bob Moriarty—whose excellent book Basic Investing in Resource StocksI reviewed earlier this month—tackle this one: “The most dangerous words in investing are ‘This time it’s different.’ It’s never different.”

2.      Trying to Predict Future Earnings Per Share Growth? Monitor Lumber Prices

One of the most eye-opening charts Michael shared illustrates the close relationship between lumber prices and future earnings per share (EPS) growth. “Believe it or not,” he told us, “lumber prices are among the most reliable leading indicators available.”

I believe it. Housing is a massive part of the U.S. economy, contributing between 15 percent and 18 percent to gross domestic product (GDP), according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Housing also has an extremely high multiplier effect. Every 100 homes in the U.S. can support up to 70 jobs on average and generate as much as $4.1 million in local income on an ongoing annual basis.

So it stands to reason that lumber prices can give us an incredibly accurate forecast of where the market is headed. In the chart below, lumber prices have been advanced forward six months to illustrate the lag time between changes in price and EPS estimates. When lumber tanked over the 12-month period, EPS followed around six months later. And when lumber soared, EPS estimates shot up.

You may have already detected the warning signal that lumber’s flashing right now. From its high in May of last year, the lumber price has plunged almost 50 percent. That’s the commodity’s sharpest 12-month decline on record. Going forward, then, keep your eyes on earnings, which are a central driver of stock prices.

3.      New York Fed on Recession Watch

Every month, the New York Fed updates its probability of an economic recession in the next 12 months. Probabilities are calculated using the spread between the 10-year and three-month Treasury yield—which inverted again last week for the first time since March.

According to the Fed’s most recent report, the probability that a recession will make landfall between now and April 2020 rose to 27.49 percent, its highest reading since January 2007 (as it was ascending, not falling), and before that, September 1999.

Past performance does not guarantee future results, of course, but the point I’m trying to make by sharing these charts is that it might be time to consider making some adjustments to your portfolio. That doesn’t mean rotating entirely into safe havens, especially since the market is so oversold right now.

Watch Part II Here and Part I Here

News

Gold Settles With a Modest Gain, Remains Pinned Below

Gold Steadies as Stocks Retreat; Trade Uncertainty Persists

Weak U.s. Retail Sales, Industrial Output Highlight Slowing Economy

U.S., European Shares Strengthen After Trump Auto-Tariff Delay

Us Orders ‘non-emergency Government Employees’ to Leave Iraq

Commentary

3 Charts Warning Investors To Rebalance Portfolios

Global Trade Collapsing To Depression Levels

Calls For 120,000 Troops To Counter Iran

Iran’s Military “On The Cusp Of War” As US Allies Pull Troops From Iraq

Central Banks Are Buying Gold At The Fastest Pace In Six Years

Must Read Guide: Avoid ETF and ‘Platform Gold’ – 7 Real Risks to Your Gold Ownership

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
 
end

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

PART II of Chris Powell’s important interview on gold price suppression

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)

If they wise up, gold investors can beat price suppression, GATA secretary says

 Section: 

5:03p ET Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In the second part of his recent interview with GoldCore’s Mark O’Byrne, your secretary/treasurer discusses:

— The counterintuitive movements in the gold price that are caused by surreptitious government interventions.

— The silly explanations for these counterintuitive movements that are contrived by market analysts.

— The ability of gold investors themselves to defeat price suppression by wising up and avoiding “paper gold” and keeping their metal outside the banking system, where derivatives turn it into imaginary supply that is used to smash gold prices down.

— The failure of the governments of developing countries to oppose the market manipulations by which the developed countries exploit them.

— GATA’s primary objectives, which are limited, transparent, and accountable government and fair dealing among nations.

The interview is 32 minutes long and can be viewed at GoldCore here:

https://news.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/video-we-have-the-power-to-end-go…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END



iii) Other Physical stories

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Are GLD withdrawals a threat to the gold price?

So far this year a total of 62 tonnes of gold – worth nearly $US2.6 billion at current prices – has been taken out of the world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR gold shares (GLD), despie a couple of months when gold was added into the ETF. Yesterday there was a withdrawal of 3.2 tonnes, but this may have been ultra short term profit taking as there was a deposit of a similar amount a couple of working days prior and the gold price jumped in between!

Gold followers will recall that a continuing outflow of metal from GLD coincided with the big gold price fall in 2012 and 2013, which could worry gold investors should gold continue to bleed out of GLD. However so far the volumes of outflows are not at that kind of level and seem to be more than being balanced by announced increases in central bank gold holdings. With demand apparently picking up in India and perhaps falling off a little in China, although still at substantial levels, the supply/demand balance seems to be holding up. Increased tensions in the Middle East – in particular with the U.S. seemingly taking an increasingly belligerent stance with Iran – and the prospects of an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, gold could yet be set fair for a substantial boost in the second half of the year should any of these come to a head. And there are other potential flashpoints out there – particularly if President Trump continues with a policy of utilisation of American military strength, and the imposition of sanctions, against regimes to which he is opposed.

This latter policy could even be imposed on supposed staunch allies. For example the U.S. is strongly opposed to the building of a new natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany – the disputed NordStream 2 project. German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, seems to be heavily in favour and although there is dissension within the EC over the pipeline’s construction, Merkel says the EC can’t and won’t delay the project. But this could lay European companies involved in the pipeline construction open to possible U.S. sanctions, which President Trump seems keen to use as a persuasive tactic on friend and foe alike. Trying to impose U.S. policy on an ally like Germany as to who it can buy its natural gas from is likely to stir up considerable resentment. Multiply this across other jurisdictions over which the U.S. wishes to exert economic pressure and we will see a build-up of resentment against the U.S. Arguably this is already being demonstrated in countries trying to reduce their reliance on the dollar and their turning to gold as a replacement asset in their forex reserves.

The aggressive U.S. policy on Iran is another case in point. The unilateral cessation of the Iran nuclear deal by the U.S. has not found favour amongst the U.S.’s European allies and the slapping of sanctions on any nation continuing to trade with Iran is yet another economic flashpoint. The U.S. dollar has been the world’s principal reserve currency, backed up by virtually all trade in oil being conducted in U.S. dollars. However this is beginning to be eroded and will likely accelerate as time goes on. The law of unintended consequences! All this could be beneficial to gold as a direct, or indirect substitute for the dollar’s role.

So to come back to the question posed in the title, we don’t think so. We suspect withdrawals from GLD, and from other gold ETFs, will diminish and probably reverse as the year progresses. The general consensus is that the gold price is due for a sustained rise in the second half of the year – there seem to be a plethora of geopolitical factors out there which should favour gold and past performance suggests that a rising gold price tends to be accompanied by gold ETF inputs rather than withdrawals. We still think things are aligning positively for gold through the second half of the year – but then gold often confounds. We hope that this time we are correct.

16 May 2019

 

-END-

India’s Gold imports spike 54% to $3.97 billion in April

MUMBAI (Scrap Register): India’s gold imports spiked by 54% to $3.97 billion in April from $2.58 billion in the same month last year, according to latest data release from the Ministry of Commerce.

The rise in imports by the world’s second-biggest consumer of the precious metal was driven by strong demand during wedding season along with fall in prices which prompted purchases.

After recording negative growth for three consecutive months – October, November and December 2018 – gold imports grew 38.16% to $2.31 billion in January 2019. It again contracted by 10.8% to $2.58 billion in February.

In March 2019, gold imports grew by 31.22 % to $3.27 billion.

India is one of the largest gold importers in the world, and the imports mainly take care of demand from the jewellery industry.

-END-

 
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.8880/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9072   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 17,03 POINTS OR 0.58%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 6.36 POINTS OR 0.02%

 

2. Nikkei closed  DOWN 125.58 POINTS OR 0.59%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN /

 

 

 

USA dollar index FALLS TO 97.54/Euro RISES TO 1.1208

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.06/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.63/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 62.52 and Brent: 72.27

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DWON CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.10%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.71% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.91%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.81: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 3.48

3k Gold at $1294.00 silver at: 14.79   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 18/100 in roubles/dollar) 64.47

3m oil into the 62 dollar handle for WTI and 72 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.63 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0089 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1307 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.10%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.38% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.82%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.0056..they are toast

Futures Rebound Despite Trump’s Huawei Ban, Yuan Slides For Record 12th Day

It has been a session of two halves. Early on European and Asian stocks fell, government bond yields slipped and the Japanese yen firmed after the U.S. government hit Chinese telecoms giant Huawei with severe sanctions, further straining Sino-U.S. trade ties, with Beijing warning that the Huawei restrictions won’t be seen as a goodwill gesture and that China will take “all necessary measures” to defend its companies. Amid fresh trade war concerns, the European Stoxx 600 index fell as much as 0.5% in early European trading with the German DAX down 0.4%, while U.S. equity futures were initially down 0.4%.

 

The broad early weakness in European markets was offset by small gains in Chinese and Hong Kong stock indexes leading to only marginal losses on a global stock index as investors expected – what else – state authorities to step in to support the market and stabilize sentiment.

Chinese stocks are up as markets expect authorities to intervene to support sentiment but this kind of activity is not sustainable and unless we see a clear resolution in the China-U.S. trade conflict, overall sentiment will remain weak,” said Neil Mellor, an FX strategist at BNY Mellon.

The initial weakness, however, reversed shortly after the European open, when with no fundamental reason, a wave of buying lifted the Emini, and US Treasuries erased a gain while European stocks also reversed a drop as a rally in chemicals and mining companies helped drive up the rebound.

S&P futures, trading at session lows of 2,840 at the European open, have jumped 25 points in a few short hours, with US equity futures now trading at session highs, even as China is expect to announce a response to yesterday’s executive order by Trump which effectively banned Chinese telecom companies from operating in the US.

 

Officially closing Q1 earnings season, Walmart shares rose in early trading after the company reported its best first quarter in nine years while warning that higher import tariffs can boost consumer prices.

Yet even as equities rebounded, German government bond yields continued to flirt with their lowest level in nearly three years while Dutch bond yields were about to dip into negative territory, a phenomenon not seen since October 2016.

The big overnight event, for anyone who missed it, was announced late on Wednesday when the U.S. Commerce Department said it was adding Huawei Technologies and 70 affiliates to its “Entity List”, effectively banning the company from acquiring components and technology from U.S. firms without government approval. The move took global markets by surprise as sentiment had steadied somewhat in the previous session on news that U.S. President Donald Trump was planning to delay tariffs on auto imports after a swathe of weak U.S. and Chinese economic data.

“Depending on how long this standoff with China lasts, that impacts growth for longer and might force the Fed’s hand,” Natixis strategist Esty Dwek told Bloomberg TV in Singapore. “I wouldn’t expect any big change in the short term, but the possibility of a cut much later in the year has risen.”

In rates, yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds eased as low as 2.35%, near a 15-month low of 2.340% touched on March 28, however, just like stocks, they have since rebounded sharply, and were last seen rising as high as 2.39%. According to Bloomberg, treasuries were under pressure in early New York trading after a $630k/DV01 block trade in 10-year futures; they were mostly underpinned in Asia session and London morning as Europe outperformed, notably France following solid auctions. As a result, yields were cheaper by 0.5bp to 2.5bp across the curve with short end leading the sell-off after 2-year and 5-year yields closed at year-to-date lows on Wednesday; 10-year yields higher by ~1bp at 2.385%, 2s10s and 5s30s flatter by around 1.5bp. Looking at the short-end of the curve, Fed funds rate futures continue to fully price in a rate cut by the end of this year and more than a 50% chance of a move by September.

“The markets are inching step by step in pricing in a rate cut. That is a sea change from a year ago when the consensus was three to four rate hikes a year,” said Akira Takei, bond fund manager at Asset Management One.

In FX, the notable mover was the Chinese currency because even as mainland stocks rose on expectations of more easing, the yuan extended its slump against its peers to a twelfth session, the longest in data going back to the start of 2015. While China’s currency was steady versus the dollar, the tumble in the Bloomberg CFETS RMB Index Tracker came after the yuan erased its gain for the year amid the China-U.S trade stand-off.

 

The offshore yuan has retreated about 2.5% this month as one of the world’s worst performers. Despite the yuan’s drop against the basket of 24 trading partners’ currencies, Khoon Goh, head of research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Singapore, said the index is still “within the range that is tolerable for the authorities.” He added that there is only a small chance the onshore yuan will weaken past 6.9 per dollar because the government will take steps to support the currency.

Across the Pacific, falling U.S. yields initially eroded support for the greenback with the dollar down 0.1 percent against a basket of its rivals in early trading, however as futures and yields jumped, so did the greenback, and the Bloomberg dollar index was trading near session highs.

Elsewhere, the pound dropped for a ninth day versus the euro – the longest losing streak since 2000 – after news that UK PM May is to be warned that she faces the prospect of confidence vote on June 12th if she does not agree to step down before summer, according to reports in the Telegraph. In related news, UK PM May will tell the executive of the 1922 Committee she needs several more weeks to pass key Brexit legislation in meeting tomorrow, according to FT’s political correspondent Laura Hughes.  ITV Political Editor Peston tweeted Labour MP Emily Thornberry said her party will vote against WAB and signalled cross-party talks may collapse as soon as tomorrow, while Conservative MPs Vaizey and Bridgen agree PM May will be out next month.

In commodities, oil prices gained on the prospect of mounting tensions in the Middle East hitting global supplies despite an unexpected build in U.S. crude inventories. Brent crude rose 0.3% to $71.99 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fetched $62.26, also half a percent higher.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,864.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 377.45
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 154.86
  • MXAPJ down 0.2% to 508.98
  • Nikkei down 0.6% to 21,062.98
  • Topix down 0.4% to 1,537.55
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.02% to 28,275.07
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 2,955.71
  • Sensex up 0.3% to 37,221.67
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 6,327.84
  • Kospi down 1.2% to 2,067.69
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.7 bps to -0.115%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1215
  • Brent Futures up 0.8% to $72.33/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to 2.373%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 4.5 bps to 0.91%
  • Brent Futures up 0.8% to $72.33/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.03% to $1,296.91
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.07% to 97.50

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Theresa May flies back to London on Thursday morning to once again face colleagues seeking to oust her, as she struggles to find a way to pass her Brexit deal. The executive of the 1922 Committee, representing Tory members of Parliament, will use a meeting at the premier’s office at 11:30 a.m. Thursday to urge her to quit as soon as possible, according to two of its members, speaking on condition of anonymity
  • Donald Trump signed an order Wednesday that’s expected to restrict Huawei and fellow Chinese telecommunications company ZTE Corp. from selling their equipment in the U.S. The Department of Commerce said it had put Huawei on a blacklist that could forbid it from doing business with American companies. This campaign could disrupt 5G rollouts globally
  • China cut its U.S. Treasuries holdings to the lowest level since 2017 in March amid the trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies
  • The U.S. ordered its non-emergency government staff to leave Iraq amid increasing Middle East tensions that American officials are blaming on Iran, as fears rise that the region may be heading toward another conflict
  • Trump will also give the EU and Japan 180 days to agree to a deal that would “limit or restrict” imports into the U.S. of automobiles and their parts in return for delaying new auto tariffs, according to a draft executive order seen by Bloomberg
  • Global funds are taking cover in defensive trades amid a widening U.S.-China rift, with yuan sovereign bonds emerging as the top pick in developing Asia

Asian equity markets were mixed as blue-chip earnings and the US blacklisting of Huawei as well as 70 of its affiliates overshadowed the positive lead from Wall St, where sentiment was underpinned by reports that President Trump plans to delay the decision on tariffs for auto imports by up to 6-months. ASX 200 (+0.7%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.6%) were mixed in which the commodity-related sectors led the intraday recovery in Australia and as a higher Unemployment Rate stoked calls for an RBA rate cut, while Tokyo trade was pressured by disappointing earnings including Japan’s megabanks Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group. Hang Seng (U/C) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) were initially subdued with underperformance seen in tech and telecoms following US President Trump’s national emergency declaration on foreign companies posing threats to US telecommunications, although strength in property names after firmer Chinese House Price data helped reverse the losses. 10yr JGBs were initially supported as they tracked recent upside in T-notes and amid weakness in Tokyo stocks, although gains were capped after the 5-year JGB auction results were relatively inline with the previous albeit with a weaker b/c.

Top Asian News

  • Philippines Cuts Large Banks’ Reserve Ratio by 2Ppt to 16%
  • Moody’s Changes Outlook on Japan Banking System to Negative
  • China Says It Will Take Necessary Measures to Defend Its Firms
  • MUFG Shifts Asia Rates Trading to London From Hong Kong

European equities have been volatile [Eurostoxx 50 +0.3%] following on from a mostly positive lead in Asia. Sectors are mixed with outperformance in material names (amidst rising base metal prices) whilst consumer discretionary lags as EU auto names pare back some of yesterday’s tariff-spurred gains. In terms of individual movers, Thyssenkrupp (+6.5%) shares rose to the top of the DAX after reports that Finland’s Kone (+3.8%) are exploring the viability of a bid for Thyssenkrupp’s EUR 14bln elevator division. Meanwhile, Thomas Cook (-18.4%) shares opened lower by over 20% after posting a Q1 pre-tax loss of EUR 1.465bln which came alongside a warning that “challenging” trading over the peak summer season would impact FY earnings, although the Co. did note that they have received multiple bids for all and parts of the group airline. Finally, Ubisoft (-12.4%) rests at the foot of the Stoxx 600 despite posting record sales figures, after a delay to its open-world game “Skull & Bones” into the next FY.

Top European News

  • Car Stocks Retreat as Trump Seen Seeking Industry Import Curbs
  • Burberry Falls as China Weakness Hangs Over Tisci’s New Looks
  • ECB’s Weidmann Says Rate Tiering Could Be Net Negative For Banks
  • Italian Banks Expectations Remain Demanding, Goldman Sachs Says

In FX, the Dollar is holding above Wednesday’s post-US data lows, but stands narrowly mixed vs G10 counterparts as the US-China trade dispute continues via recriminations over the cause of the derailment in talks that has sparked another round of reciprocal tariffs. However, the DXY is stuck in a narrow band either side of the 97.500 mark that has been pivotal for a while, and very close to the 30 DMA (94.428) between 97.565-438.

  • NZD/EUR/CAD/JPY/AUD/CHF – All marginally firmer vs the Greenback, with the Kiwi outperforming or clawing back more losses than other so be precise from sub-0.6550 levels to circa 0.6580. Meanwhile, the single currency is holding above 1.1200 after reclaiming big figure+ status yesterday on the EU auto tax reprieve, but unable to breach the 30 DMA (1.1222) convincingly amidst increasingly dovish ECB market expectations and another potential clash between Italy and the EU on budget policy intentions. The Loonie has also rebounded from recent lows and a post-Canadian CPI dip to test resistance ahead of 1.3400 with some positive momentum coming from reports that the Canada, Mexico and the US are close to clinching a deal on steel tariffs (Peso paring losses as well as Usd/Mxn eyes 19.0000). Usd/Jpy continues to straddle 109.50 as the Yen retains a safe-haven bid, but also contends with more decent option expiry interest (1.55 bn from 109.15 to 109.25 and 2.2 bn between 109.40-55). Elsewhere, the Aussie has recovered from its latest slump in wake of more weak data on balance (labour report) and a dip through 0.6900 stops with the aid of underlying bids/short covering, and Aud/Usd has now absorbed supply said to be sitting around 0.6910 and above to trade back up around 0.6933. Lastly, funding for a proposed acquisition has been touted as a factor behind recent Franc strength, but Usd/Chf has bounced towards 1.0100 from a few pips above 1.0050 and Eur/Chf has crossed over 1.1300 again.
  • GBP – Brexit and related UK political uncertainty is still haunting Sterling along with other global and geopolitical risk, with Cable retreating a tad further towards 1.2800 and Eur/Gbp inching close to 0.8750 as PM May meets the 1922 group in just under an hour.
  • EM – The Rand is showing a degree of resilience in the face of somewhat negative reviews from Moody’s on SA’s credit outlook with Usd/Zar hovering at the lower end of 14.2650-1525 trading parameters and perhaps being drawn or attracted to an unusually large expiry at the 14.0000 strike (1.365 bn).

In commodities, a positive session thus far for WTI (+0.7%) and Brent (+0.5%) futures as tensions in the Middle East drift back into focus. The former remains above USD 62.00/bbl and in close proximity to USD 62.50/bbl whilst its Brent counterpart floats comfortably above the USD 72.00/bbl mark. On the Iranian front, ship tracking data showed that a tanker carrying Iranian oil (in violation with US sanctions) has unloaded its cargo of almost 130k tonnes of oil near Zhousan, in China. Iran will remain a focus as the JMMC convene this weekend in Jeddah, with ministers expected to discuss whether the supply gap from Iranian sanctions will need to be filled, and hence whether the output curb deal will need to be extended until the end of the year.  In terms of technicals, analysts at PVM highlight resistance at 63.09 (21 DMA) in WTI and 72.60 in Brent (short-term DMA) which they believe will be tested today given the optimism emanating from Trump’s decision to delay EU auto tariffs, progress regarding the Canadian and Mexican aluminium and steel tariffs and concerns of supply disruptions from Middle Eastern tensions. Looking at metals, gold remains choppy below the 1300/oz level and flirts with its 100 DMA at 1296.82 ahead of its 50 DMA (1291.69). Elsewhere, copper prices are poised to notch a third day of gains amid a weakening buck and optimism surrounding Trump’s auto tariff delays with the red metal now back above 2.75/lb ahead of its 200 DMA at 2.7604.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.21m, prior 1.14m; Housing Starts MoM, est. 6.15%, prior -0.3%
  • 8:30am: Building Permits, est. 1.29m, prior 1.27m; Building Permits MoM, est. 0.08%, prior -1.7%
  • 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 9, prior 8.5
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,000, prior 228,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.67m, prior 1.68m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 59.8

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

By the time you read this I’ll be flying back from the US West Coast and hopefully blissfully asleep. At the conference I was attending there was a panel on US politics with a couple of Washington insiders and a couple of things struck me from the conversation. Firstly, virtually every market person I’ve spoken to over the last few months wants a deal, pretty much any deal. However, in listening to the panel it’s quite clear that China has few friends on the trade front in Washington across the political spectrum. Also, the view was that behind closed doors virtually all US corporates were supportive of being more aggressive with China on Trade. They may not say so publicly but the impression given was that in private they believed the current trading relationship made life tougher for them. So, working in markets it’s easy to focus on the price action negatives and assume a rational compromise at some point. However, there is a bigger story than this. What makes this challenging though is that Mr Trump did everything to suggest he wanted a deal early this year and it looked like he was clearing the way for one regardless of the above support for more action. So second guessing the President’s next move is the hard part but don’t underestimate the support for a more aggressive stance politically and at a corporate level.

As discussed above though, markets have a very different view and given how fragile sentiment has become over the last 10 days, the last thing they needed was a string of soft data across China and the US. That was certainly the case until headlines hit in the mid-afternoon indicating that President Trump plans to delay the auto tariffs decision by up to six months.Even if that decision was broadly expected, there was always the chance that the President went ahead with them this week. More on the data later but the news about Trump’s auto tariffs delay ended up more than offsetting the weak China and US data with the NASDAQ (+1.13%) leading gains.The S&P 500 closed up a more modest +0.58% however was up +1.28% from the early lows while the DOW finished +0.45%. The STOXX 600 (+0.46%) also finished onside having spent the majority of the session in the red along with the DAX (+0.90%). Vol also abated with the VIX down -1.6pts to -16.4 and the V2X slipping -0.8pts to 16.7. It’s worth flagging that the European Autos sector rose +1.97% yesterday and +4.14% from the lows, while the S&P 500 Autos sector gained +1.00% and +2.70% off the lows.

Bond markets also witnessed a part reversal, however yields were still broadly lower across the board which goes to show that fixed income markets are still biased towards risk-off more generally.Indeed there was a multi-year low for Bunds which touched -0.134% intraday and closed at -0.100% (-2.8bps) for the lowest closing level since September 2016. That’s just 9bps off their all-time low from their summer 2016 post-Brexit levels. OATs rallied -2.3bps and Gilts -3.7bps while Treasuries were down another 3.7bps to 2.374% and the lowest since March despite yields rising after the auto tariff news.This morning they are hovering around similar levels. At the short end, 2y yields fell to 2.161% and to the lowest since February 2018. The 3m10y curve flattened back into negative territory at -2.9bps while there are now 31bps of cuts priced into the January 2020 Fed Funds futures contract. The one bond market that failed to join the party was BTPs which rose +1.8bps with the spread to Bunds hitting 292bps intra-day, which would have been the highest level of the year, before retracing slightly.The move for Bunds appeared to reflect a combination of the wider risk-off move and further reaction to Salvini’s early week comments about letting Italy’s deficit rise above EU limits, which he reiterated yesterday.

In other markets, US HY credit widened 6bps yesterday – and therefore bucking the equity move – while in currencies EM FX was +0.07% stronger. Unexpected comments from Mnuchin about US, Mexico, and Canada being closer to a deal to remove metal tariffs helped the Mexican Peso and Canadian Dollar rally +0.54% and +0.18% respectively. USTR Lighthizer met with the Democratic House leadership team to discuss passing the NAFTA-replacement deal, the USMCA, and Speaker Pelosi’s aide said the meeting was “productive” and that the Democrats want to “get to ‘yes.’” Meanwhile, WTI oil prices rose +2.12% from their lows (+0.39% on the day) after US data showed a +5.43mn barrel crude inventory build, which was not as big as feared.

After US markets closed, President Trump signed an executive order to declare a national emergency regarding “threats against information and communication” systems. While it did not mention China, Huawei or ZTE (which is down 5% overnight) by name, the move is likely a step on the path toward fully banning the Chinese tech firm from doing business in the US. Our economists in China wrote this morning that they believe this could be highly damaging, as it could trigger more voices in China’s policy circle against US business interests in China. See their note here .

Markets in Asia are a bit more mixed on the back of that news with declines for the Nikkei (-0.60%) and Kospi (-0.87%), and small gains for the Hang Seng (+0.24%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.20%) – the latter reversing earlier losses. The CNH is -0.10% weaker, trading at 6.911 – a level it has broadly hovered near for the last three days but failed to breach higher. Meanwhile US equity futures are down around -0.35%. A data point worth flagging this morning also is China’s holdings of Treasuries which hit the lowest level since 2017 in March following data released last night. It was also the first drop since November. The more significant data will be this month’s however which we will still have to wait a while for.

Back to that data in the US where first up was the April retail sales report where both the core (-0.2% mom vs. +0.3% expected) and control group (0.0% mom vs. +0.3% expected) prints both fell short.There were some modest upward revisions to the previous month but not enough to shrug off the overall disappointment. Adding to the pain was the April industrial production print released shortly after which unexpectedly fell -0.5% mom (vs. 0.0% expected), albeit somewhat offset by a three-tenths upward revision to March. It’s worth noting that manufacturing production also fell -0.5% mom (vs. 0.0% expected) and capacity utilization slipped from 78.5% to 77.9% – the lowest since February last year. The Atlanta Fed GDP tracker nudged down -0.5pp to 1.1% following the above data.

The better news came in the latest manufacturing sector survey data where the May empire manufacturing print rose +7.7pts to 17.8,far exceeding expectations for a drop to 8.0. In fact, it was the highest reading since November 2018. However, with the bulk of the responses coming prior to the rise in trade tensions it’s next month’s reading which will garner more attention.

Prior to this we had the preliminary Q1 GDP reading in Germany which matched expectations at +0.4% qoq. However, our economists in Germany now expect Q2 to be flat due to a negative payback for Q1 while the rise in trade tensions will also result in subdued growth for Q3. So the outlook appears less positive. For completeness, there was no change in the second revision for Q1 GDP for the Euro Area at +0.4% qoq while France’s April CPI was revised up one-tenth to +0.4% mom.

To the day ahead now, which this morning includes Q1 employment data in France, final April CPI revisions in Italy and the March trade balance for the Euro Area. In the US we’ll see April housing starts and building permits, the May Philly Fed PMI and the latest weekly initial jobless claims reading. Away from that the ECB’s Praet, Guindos and Coeure are all speaking at various stages today along with the Bundesbank’s Weidmann. The BoE’s Haskel also speaks this evening. Over at the Fed we’ll hear from Kashkari at 5.05pm BST when he is due to discuss monetary policy and the economy and then Brainard at 5.15pm BST who will be talking about a similar topic.

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  UP 17,03 POINTS OR 0.58%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 6.36 POINTS OR 0.02%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 125.58 POINTS OR 0.59%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .74%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8884 /Oil UP to 61.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.08 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN/ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8884 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9072 TRADE TALKS STILL ON//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA

 

 

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

end

3 C CHINA/CHINESE AFFAIRS

i)China/HUAWEI

Huawei responds to the tech ban and in a concession to Trump the company states that it is willing “to engage to ensure the product safety.”  It seems that Trump was right that Huawei was using its products for spying purposes.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Huawei Responds To Tech Ban: In Concession To Trump Says “Willing To Engage To Ensure Product Safety”

It appears that Trump’s aggressive trade war escalation is proving the doubters wrong and already bearing fruit.

Earlier on Wednesday, President Trump signed an executive order declaring a “national emergency” in permitting the US federal government to legally block American companies from purchasing foreign-made telecom equipment deemed a national security risk. The move is expected to restrict Huawei and fellow Chinese telecommunications company ZTE from selling their equipment in the U.S. Shortly afterward, the Department of Commerce said it had put Huawei on a blacklist that could forbid it from doing business with American companies.

In the executive order, while Trump did not name any company specifically, it was the latest action in the ongoing security saga with Huawei. The order reads that “openness must be balanced by the need to protect our country against critical national security threats.”

Separately, the Commerce Department’s move to put Huawei on its “Entity List” means U.S. companies will need a special license to sell products to the Chinese company. A similar move against ZTE last year nearly forced the company to shut down before Trump intervened and a deal was reached.

As a result of allegations it works covertly with the Chinese government to facilitate industrial and other espionage, Huawei has been banned from building the 5G networks in the US, in Australia, and numerous other countries – if not in Europe, where the local liberal elite would rather be spied on by Beijing than appear to fold to the demands of the White House – after concerns were raised that the company’s products may be used by the Chinese government for surveillance.

And just a few hours after Trump signed the executive order, the Chinese telco released a statement in response to the US ban, in which while it warned that the country will lag behind in 5G networks made by “inferior” or “more expensive alternatives.”

Yet while Huawei leaders have long insisted their company operates independently of the Chinese government and that its products aren’t used for spying, it appeared to confirm just that when the company said that it is “ready and willing to engage with the U.S. government and come up with effective measures to ensure product security.”

Why Huawei needs to ensure product safety if, as it claims, its products are safe is certainly worth a scratch on the head, and if anything it validates Trump’s suspicions about Huawei’s less then noble motives, which resulted in the US leveling 23 charges against Huawei and its CFO, and daughter of the CEO, Meng Wanzhou including charges of violating trade sanctions with Iran and attempted theft of trade secrets. Huawei has, of course,  maintained that it is all a “political” game with no credence.

Huawei’s full statement is below.

“Huawei is the unparalleled leader in 5G. We are ready and willing to engage with the US government and come up with effective measures to ensure product security. Restricting Huawei from doing business in the US will not make the US more secure or stronger; instead, this will only serve to limit the US to inferior yet more expensive alternatives, leaving the US lagging behind in 5G deployment, and eventually harming the interests of US companies and consumers. In addition, unreasonable restrictions will infringe upon Huawei’s rights and raise other serious legal issues.”

Trump’s order is clearly meant to ratchet up pressure on Beijing to concede in the trade war; and just to make sure Xi Jinping has a few days to contemplate the latest US retaliation, the Commerce Department’s blacklisting of Huawei isn’t effective until it’s listed in the Federal Register. The department didn’t say when that would occur. The administration official said Wednesday that the Commerce Department was expected to take as long as six months to fashion an approach to the order, so there might not be an immediate effect. The government may eventually prohibit products from specific companies or countries as Commerce carries out Trump’s order.

Last week, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission barred China Mobile Ltd. from the U.S. market over national security concerns and said it was opening a review of other Chinese companies.

Finally, in addition to getting Tom Friedman and Steve Bannon to agree on something, Trump’s hard line stance against China appears to be earning him some very unexpected friends: democrats. “This is a needed step, and reflects the reality that Huawei and ZTE represent a threat to the security of U.S. and allied communications networks,” said Democratic Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee.

END

CHINA/CANADA

NOT GOOD!! Two Canadians held by Beijing in December are now facing the death penalty as they are being charged on espionage.  No doubt that these are related to the Meng (CFO Huawei) arrest.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

2 Detained Canadians Face Death Penalty As China Brings Espionage Charges

Just hours after President Trump signed an executive order blacklisting Huawei and 70 affiliates from doing business in the US, Chinese authorities announced that a Canadian businessman and a former Canadian diplomat have been formally charged with spying – a crime that could carry a death sentence in China.

Michael Spavor, a businessman who organized trips to North Korea for foreigners, and Michael Kovrig, a consultant and former diplomat, were detained in December and held as Chinese police carried out an investigation into charges relating to “state secrets”. Five months later, the two men have finally been formally charged, according to CBC.

Kovrig

Michael Spavor, Michael Kovrig

Many suspect that the arrests of the two men was retaliation against Ottawa For the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou, who was arrested in Vancouver late last year  at the behest of federal prosecutors in New York, who are seeking to extradite her over allegations that she misled banks about Huawei’s relationship with a sanctions-violating subsidiary. Canadian diplomats have said there’s ‘no doubt’ the detentions of the two men were retaliation for Meng, who was released on $10 million bail in December and must wear an ankle monitoring bracelet.

The decision – which comes amid an unprecedented US crackdown on Huawei and the most tense period of negotiations since the trade-war truce was declared in December – will almost certainly escalate tensions between the US, Ottawa and Canada.

Chinese officials said they hoped Canada would refrain from criticizing their legal system.

“According to Chinese prosecutors’ approval, Michael Kovrig, due to being suspected of crimes of gathering state secrets and intelligence for foreign (forces), and Michael Spavor, for being suspected of crimes of stealing and illegally providing state secrets for foreign (forces), have in recent days been approved for arrest according to law,” foreign ministry spokesperson Lu Kang told a daily news briefing.

“We always act in accordance with the law, and we hope that Canada will not make irresponsible remarks on China’s legal construction and judicial handling,” Geng said at a regularly scheduled news conference.

The two men have been held in undisclosed detention facilities for months and have been denied access to lawyers, though they have been allowed visits from Canadian consular officials.

 

END

Serious stuff going on in Washington with their nuclear option against Huawei. Huawei has offered to open up its devices in order for the USA to feel secure form spying. The USA counters by putting Huawei on the “Entity list” which would ban USA corporations from dealing with the company.  Also, the timing for China seems odd that on the day that the USA puts Huawei on the “entity list” two Canadians were arrested for espionage and could face the death sentence.  I guess travel to China is now out of the question.

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Beijing Hints Washington’s “Nuclear Option” Against Huawei Could Crash Trade Talks

Beijing has already responded to President Trump’s blacklisting of Huawei and dozens of its affiliates via Hu Xijin, one of its most closely watched English-language mouthpieces…

Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT

Most Chinese agree that the US is more powerful than China and Washington holds initiative in the trade war. But we just don’t want to cave in and we believe there is no way the US can crush China. We are willing to bear some pain to give the US a lesson.

…and Huawei has also released a statement of its own, saying it is“ready and willing to work with the US government” to offer reassurances about safety and security.

But early Thursday, the Foreign Ministry, which along with the MOFCOM (the Ministry of Commerce), is perhaps the most closely watched by the West, issued the most strongly worded statement yet, blasting the White House’s tactics as “disgraceful and unjust” and hinting that the Huawei ban could hurt the ongoing trade negotiations.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT

My friend from Huawei told me: 1,Huawei didn’t violate any regulations and the company can use legal means to defend itself. 2,They have long ago prepared for this day.The company has strengthened technology self-development&increased back-up supply chains. The US can’t beat them

Shortly after President Trump signed an executive order banning Huawei and other foreign telecoms companies from doing business with US companies, the Department of Commerce said it would add Huawei to its “Entity List,” which could prohibit US firms from selling equipment to Huawei – something that could seriously impact the company’s operations. A similar move against Chinese telecoms giant ZTE last year nearly brought down the company.

Lu Kang, the foreign ministry spokesman, warned that Beijing would take all necessary measures to safeguard its rights and the interests of Chinese businesses – which sounds like a threat to us – before suggesting that the decision would make it harder for Beijing to trust Washington, which could redound upon trade negotiations.

“Negotiations and consultations, to have meaning, must be sincere.”

“First, there must be mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit. Second, one’s word must be kept, and not be capricious.”

Stephen McDonell

@StephenMcDonell

has accused @realDonaldTrump of engaging in industrial sabotage with “the use of national security as a pretext for the business activity of foreign companies”. The US president issued an order which effectively blocked Huawei technology from being imported into the .

Stephen McDonell

@StephenMcDonell

Beijing has now threatened reprisals saying that it would “take steps to safeguard the legitimate interests of Chinese businesses”.

Stephen McDonell

@StephenMcDonell

In what some’ll see an understatement, For Ministry Spokesman Lu Kang, when referring to these moves by @realDonaldTrump to block Huawei tech entering the , said “nobody has seen this as a constructive or friendly gesture”. But hey he’s accusing the US of industrial sabotage.

Stephen McDonell

@StephenMcDonell

BTW I wonder if it is just a coincidence on the day that @realDonaldTrump orders the blocking of Huawei equipment imports into the that officially “arrests” (charges) ‘s Kovrig and Spavor for “gathering state secrets and intelligence for foreign forces” etc?

It would be difficult to understate the seriousness of Washington’s latest actions against Huawei. Bloomberg called it “the nuclear option.”

The takeaway should be clear: Over the past year, the US has orchestrated the arrest of one of Huawei’s top executives (who also happens to be the daughter of the company’s billionaire founder)and managed to convince at least some of its allies (New Zealand, Australia) to block the use of Huawei equipment in their 5G networks. But there’s no question: Beijing sees this as an attack – industrial sabotage, as that BBC reporter called it. So whatever retaliation the Chinese are planning, it’ll likely be more consequential than anything they’ve done in the past.

end
CNH just broke to 6.9300 at 2 pm est
(courtesy zerohedge)

Something Just Broke In The Chinese Yuan

 

Having been well-managed all week, amid various headlines (and extreme hopium in US equities), something just snapped in the Chinese yuan…

 

 

As we just detailed, from Deutsche Bank, who worry that USD/CNY will break through 7…

Asia is the region we expect to suffer most from the renewed global headwinds. We argue that policymakers in China are now going to be more accepting of USD/CNY appreciation through 7: years of regulatory measures should make outflows more manageable, easier monetary policy will add upside pressure and a weakening FX is the natural means of offsetting tariffs.

 

Moves so far in USD/CNY have been proportional to the weighted average tariff being borne by Chinese exporters  with the measures currently imposed already consistent with USD/CNY at 7.10. Our preferred trade expression is short  CNH/JPY with the yen primed to benefit from global risk aversion and resumed signs of Japanese equity repatriation in recent weeks.

Big picture CNH/JPY remains one of the most expensive currency crosses in the world.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

FRANCE

An excellent commentary on the state of affairs in France which has the highest social spending per GDP in the world at 31%.  The social spending in totally non productive.  France incomes are falling below even America’s poorest states. I guess this is the reason for the Yellow Vest Movement as they feel the pain inside France

(courtesy Ryan McMaken/ Mises)

French Incomes Are Below America’s Poorest States… And The Protesters Know It

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

With the rise of the Yellow Vest Movement in France – which began last October and continues today – French activists and writers have begun to re-evaluate the state of French income and poverty. Since the movement began, articles with titles such as ” Revealed: The shocking scale of poverty in France in 2018 ” or ” Soul-searching in France as poverty leaves one million children hungry ” have become more overtly political given the context of the protests.

Typically, the government’s response to accusations of widespread poverty – which, as in America, are not necessarily accurate accusations – has been to spend more money on social programs.

But here’s the thing: France is already spending more than the rest of Europe when it comes to welfare programs. According to the OECD, when it comes to “public social spending” as a percentage of GDP, France tops the list at over 31 percent.

In contrast, Swedish social spending is 26 percent of GDP, while Germany and Norway come in at 25 percent. Switzerland is near the bottom of the list at 16 percent, while the US is at 18 percent.

These numbers tend to move around some from year to year, but we can see that France was still spending more than anyone else in 2016:

But poverty isn’t the only place where French pundits and protestors may see themselves as “falling behind.” When it comes to the median household, France isn’t competing well with its neighbors, either.

According to the OECD’s measure of median disposable income — which takes into account taxes as well as income received from social programs — France ranks below its German, Belgian, and Swiss neighbors. Canada, the US, and Australia all rank well ahead of France as well.

Moreover, the median French citizen appears to live on very little if compared to most Americans. if we compare France to individual US states — using the method explained here — we find that France’s disposable income may rank below every US state except Louisiana.

Basically, I’m just using the OECD’s disposable income numbers, and then applied the US-wide income number to each states based on how far above or below the national median income level each state is. It’s a pretty crude measure, but the results are believable. It’s not exactly pushing the bounds of plausibility to suggest that infrastructure quality, incomes, and the general quality of life in high-income states like Minnesota, Utah, Colorado, and Washington are very high indeed — just as the income data suggests:

When faced with income numbers like these, of course, skeptics may object that “income isn’t everything!” and that “generous welfare programs make life longer and better.” Well, if that’s the case, then France seems especially inefficient at turning its social spending into health and welfare.

Advocates of the “quality of life” position, for example, tend to point to official life expectancy numbers as a preferred measure. But in this respect, France is equal to Canada and Australia, although the Canadians and the Aussies spend half as much as France does on social benefits programs. Similarly, Switzerland achieves better health outcomes with far less social spending than the French state.

High Social Spending Can Be an Indicators of a Stagnant Economy

The truth, however, is that social spending is not the key to reducing poverty, raising median incomes, or generally improving the lives of residents. In fact, rising social spending may be more the result of stagnation in an economy since social programs are likely to become more widespread as more residents experience poverty, unemployment, or unmanageably high living costs.

We certainly see this in comparisons between US states. When we compare social spending on a state-by-state basis, we find that it is often the states with the least productive workers and highest poverty rates that have the most social spending.

In other words, social spending doesn’t solve any of these problems, but it does become more prevalent where economies are less productive.

Moreover, if we measure social spending as a proportion of GDP, it’s going to naturally follow — all else being equal — that less productive economies have higher rates of social spending. After all, in an economy where social spending is growing, it would still be going down proportionally if the economy were growing at a faster rate.

This, however, is not what we see in France. Instead, social-spending rates are high, and when the government is pressured to “do something” about poverty, the state merely responds by promoting more social spending.

The real solution lies in doing those things which the French state vehemently refuses to do: deregulating industries, embracing global free trade, breaking the power of the unions, and ending subsidies, price controls, and other measures designed to benefit powerful interest groups at the expense of everyone else.

The French economy — which is notorious for its inflexibility and lack of competition in agriculture and other select industries — increasingly looks like one of the least free in Europe.  It simply isn’t delivering the sort of economic growth that is necessary to keep social spending under control at a manageable level of spending. As the ongoing protests by the Yellow Vests suggests, many French residents are well aware of this.

END

Now that the USA has finished issuing fines to our favourite bankers, the EU has now started as they fined 5 banks 1.2 billion dollars in a FX cartel case

(courtesy zerohedge)

EU Fines 5 Banks $1.2 Billion In ‘FX Cartel’ Case

Over the past few years, US prosecutors fined more than a dozen banks $11.8 billion over allegations of collusion and manipulation in the FX market – a case thathelped upend the culture of traders sharing “market color” in Bloomberg chatrooms. Those same banks have reached other settlements over behavior tied to the ‘FX Cartel’ not only in the US, but also in the UK, with the initial round of penalties coming in 2015.

But in what has become an unceasing loop of punishments, prosecutions and fines, not unlike the rate-rigging and the LIBOR manipulation scandal, it’s now Europe’s turn.

NEU Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager on Thursday announced that five banks had agreed to pay fines totaling €1.07 billion ($1.5 billion) after colluding to “rig” currency markets to benefit their trading books.

CNBC

The UK and the US have already prosecuted FX traders involved in some of the chat rooms, which had names like the “Essex Express n’ the Jimmy” (named for the commuter train many of the traders traveled on) and “Semi Grumpy Old Men”, with mixed success. Traders were accused of using chat rooms on their Bloomberg terminals to collude about their positioning.

Barclays, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Citigroup, RBS and JPM have agreed to pay the fines. Citigroup got hit the hardest – it will pay €310 million ($347.65 million), according to Bloomberg.

EU

The Europeans are investigating other violations, and could bring more fines in the not too distant future. A case in the US involving similar charges is ongoing in the US, the only difference being the US is fining BNP Paribas instead Mitsubishi. The banks in that case have agreed to pay more than $2.8 billion in exchange for a guilty plea.

Swiss bank UBS was exempted from a fine since it was the first to alert authorities to the existence of the chat rooms (it ratted on its rivals), according to CNBC.

In a statement, Vestager said the investigation took six years.

“Companies and people depend on banks to exchange money to carry out transactions in foreign countries.Foreign exchange spot trading activities are one of the largest markets in the world, worth billions of euros every day,” EU Commissioner Margrethe Vestager said in a press release Thursday.

“Today we have fined Barclays, The Royal Bank of Scotland, Citigroup, J.P. Morgan and MUFG Bank and these cartel decisions send a clear message that the Commission will not tolerate collusive behavior in any sector of the financial markets. The behavior of these banks undermined the integrity of the sector at the expense of the European economy and consumers,” Vestager added.

The EU investigation that has been ongoing for the past six years revealed that some individual traders from various banks…exchanged sensitive information and trading plans through various online professional chat rooms.

“The information exchanges…enabled [the traders] to make informed market decisions on whether to sell or buy the currencies they had in their portfolios and when,” the Commission said in its report.

Whatever else happens, the fact that these banks needed to collude to make money makes us question the notion that the slump in the big banks’ FICC trading revenues was caused by ‘market conditions.’ Maybe their traders just aren’t as effective without their morning dose of “market color”.

 

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

SAUDI ARABIA/IRAN/YEMEN

The Saudis now claim the Iran has carried out the Aramco Pipeline attack in Saudi Arabia using drones. We now have footage and it is extensive.

The USA are not happy campers on this issue.  Remember that the USA carrier Lincoln will be entering the Gulf shortly.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Saudis Claim Iran Ordered Aramco Pipeline Drone Attack

Saudi Arabia on Thursday blamed Iran for ordering an attack early this week on two Aramco pipeline booster stations, a strike that was intended as part of a broader sabotage campaign to disrupt world oil supplies, according to Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih.

The drone attacks came one day after a string of attacks on two Saudi oil tankers and two other vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and caused the temporary closure of a vital east-west pipeline traversing the kingdom, since reopened.

 

Image source: Reuters

Prince Khalid Bin Salman, the vice minister for defense and brother of the crown prince MbS, described Yemen’s Houthis – which were believed to have launched the drone attack – of being used as an “Iranian” tool advancing Tehran’s aggression and hegemony in the region.

In a tweet, he said the Houthi militias “are merely a tool that Iran’s regime uses to implement its expansionist agenda in the region, and not to protect the people of Yemen as the Houthis falsely claim”.

Embedded video

Yosef Yisrael@yosefyisrael25

Saudi Arabia confirmed that militants, probably Iranian backed Houthi militants, sent booby-trapped drones targeting ‘s two oil pumping stations in Dawadmi and Afif provinces in , amid the tension between and Iran

Since 2015 Saudi coalition jets have been waging a brutal bombing campaign over Yemen to roll back the country’s Shia Houthi rebels, the latter which have occasionally launched missile and drone attacks against sensitive sites in the kingdom, at times even reaching Riyadh’s international airport with ballistic missiles.

Embedded video

Mohamad Kleit@kleitm

More footage shot by employees for the attacked oil pipeline mid-west ; commenced the operation two days ago using explosive drones

Soon after Monday’s drone attack on the Aramco facilities, dramatic video was released online showing extensive destruction of the pumping stations, which had been on fire for hours following the attack.

US and Saudi investigators further blamed Iran for a “sabotage attack” on several Saudi and international tankers off a UAE port near the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.

end

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

Maersk, the largest shipping company in the world sees a significant slowdown in business activity as the third largest transshipment port in the Mediterranean, located on the island of Malta.

Maersk is now going to shift operations from Malta to other African ports due to the slowdown

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Significant Slowdown” Spooks Maersk At Mediterranean’s Third Largest Port

Malta Freeport, the third largest transshipment port in the Mediterranean region and located on the island of Malta, has seen a “significant slowdown in business activity” since 2H18.

One of its major clients, Maersk, the largest container ship and supply vessel operator in the world, has decided to move its operations from Malta to other ports in North Africa after Mediterranean shipping routes have been severely affected by the synchronized global slowdown.

The Times of Malta reported that Freeport’s management notified unions and other clients that Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) will be shifting operations from Malta to other African ports, is expected to reduce business at Malta’s container terminal by 35% next month.

Last year’s figures show the port handled 3.3 million containers in its transshipment activities, but with Maersk and MSC halting operations, that number is expected to be dramatically less.

A spokesman for Freeport confirmed to the Times of Malta that Maersk and MSC have departed.

END

7  OIL ISSUES

A mystery tanker violates USA sanctions by unloading oil to China

(courtesy zerohedge)

Mystery Tanker Violates US Sanctions, Unload Iranian Fuel In China As Zarif Heads To Beijing

With Trump shutting down Huawei and China’s entire telecom industry, it was only logical that China would at least try to retaliate, which it has done by formally breaching the US embargo on Iran oil exports. According to ship tracking data on Refinitiv Eikon (i.e. the old Reuters terminal), a tanker carrying Iranian fuel oil in violation of U.S. sanctions has unloaded the cargo into storage tanks near the Chinese city of Zhoushan.

A representative of the oil storage terminal confirmed that the tanker, Marshal Z, discharged nearly 130,000 tonnes of Iranian fuel oil; that marked the end of an odyssey for the cargo that began four months ago.

As Reuters reported on March 20, some Iranian fuel oil had managed to evade the United States’ sanctions on petroleum exports “by using ship-to-ship transfers involving four different ships, including the Marshal Z, and by using forged documents that masked the cargoes as originating from Iraq.”

 

Marshal Z tanker

Amusingly, a second representative from the terminal operator, Zhoushan Jinrun Petroleum Transfer Co, said the cargo could not be Iranian oil, “as the terminal had not received official shipments from Iran in at least the past four years. Both Jinrun representatives declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.”

Obviously, China would not explicitly admit it was violating a US embargo which took full effect less than two weeks ago, when President Trump’s administration stepped up moves to choke off Iran’s oil exports by scrapping waivers it had granted to big buyers of the country’s crude oil including China. Refined products like fuel oil, mainly used to power ship engines and generate electricity, were not covered by the temporary waivers granted.

Still, China had no qualms with implicitly being found to have violated the embargo, which it appears to have done as a Reuters analysis of the tanker’s trek revealed. Specifically, from March 22 until arriving at the Jinrun terminal on the island of Liuheng on May 8, the vessel maintained a constant draught of 15.9 meters (52 feet), according to the tracking data. That indicated the cargo was not discharged before reaching the terminal, about 30 km (18 miles) south of Zhoushan, near Shanghai.

 

Tugboats dock an oil tanker on a crude oil quay at a port in Zhoushan

On May 12, the ship finished unloading the fuel oil as indicated by a change in its draught to 9 meters, and left the terminal, the tracking data showed. The vessel is headed for the waters just outside Singapore, set to arrive on May 21, the data showed.

Jinrun, owned by Herun Group, offers bonded storage at the terminal, according to its website, meaning that fuel can be stored there without clearing Chinese customs and officially entering the country. Herun officials referred questions back to Jinrun.

According to Reuters’ tracking, the Marshal Z first took on the cargo from a larger tanker off the coast of the United Arab Emirates in January. It transferred the fuel oil to a second tanker, the Libya, off the Malaysian port of Malacca later that month, the ship-tracking data showed. However, potential buyers wary of the U.S. sanctions steered clear of the Marshal Z’s cargo. As a result, by March 22, the Marshal Z took the fuel oil back from the Libya and anchored off the Malaysian and Singaporean coasts.

The vessel lingered off Singapore and Malaysia in March and April, the ship tracking data shows, before sailing to Hong Kong and finally to Liuheng island, off the eastern Chinese province of Zhejiang.

And it is only now that trade war has escalated once more, that Beijing made the carefully premeditated decision to violate the US embargo, and telegraph that Iranian oil is once again welcome in China, which has traditionally been Iran’s biggest customer.

“Transparency has been the thorn in the Marshal Z’s hull for quite some time now and owing to the issues regarding the alleged origin of her cargo nobody has been able to touch it,” said Matt Stanley, an oil broker at StarFuels in Dubai.

* * *

Reuters was unable to determine the financial terms surrounding the cargo’s unloading, but industry participants said it would likely have been on offer at a lower price to ensure a sale. “Somebody in China decided that the steep discount this cargo most likely availed … was a bargain too good to miss,” said StarFuels broker Stanley.

Reuters was unable to confirm who purchased the fuel oil cargo carried by the Marshal Z.

There was one last mystery surrounding the cargo shipment: Reuters was unable to determine the owners of the Marshal Z. According to a shipbroker report dated Jan. 28, the tanker was sold to an undisclosed buyer and intended for use as floating storage.

* * *

Or perhaps there is no mystery at all: with both China and Iran now aligned fully against the US, IRNA reported today that Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif is set to visit China Friday for talks on “regional and international issues.” We have a feeling we know what these talks will focus on.

Ahead of his China visit, Zarif visited Tokyo where accused the United States of an “unacceptable” escalation of tensions and said Tehran was showing “maximum restraint” despite Washington’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal. Tensions were already high after President Donald Trump walked away from the accord in May 2018, but they have ratcheted up recently with the U.S. deploying an aircraft carrier group and B-52 bombers to the Gulf over alleged threats from Iran

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

VENEZUELA

Officially the uSA suspends all passenger and cargo flights to Venezuela

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Suspends All Passenger And Cargo Flights To Venezuela

Though all of the major US carriers have already ended their flights to Caracas, the Department of Homeland Security has officially suspended all air traffic – passenger and cargo – between the US and Venezuela due to the “ongoing political stability and increased tensions.”

The decision follows a failed uprising spurred by opposition leader Juan Guaido, who is recognized as the legitimate ruler of Venezuela by the US and about 50 other countries, and growing speculation that strongman Nicolas Maduro will hold on to power, since the country’s military and pro-government militias have firmly backed him, the FT reports.

Avior

One of the worst humanitarian crises in the world has been festering in Venezuela for about five years now, spurred by chronic mismanagement under the Maduro regime, and that of his predecessor, Hugo Chavez. Because of security concerns, rapid inflation, the difficulty of moving capital out of the country, and a shortage of passengers, most US airlines have already suspended flights.

Of the 32 foreign airlines operating in Venezuela in 2013, only about one-third remain active in the country, and the number of seats on international flights have fallen by 80%. American Airlines was the last major carrier to suspend flights to VZ, which it did in March.

While a few small carriers will be impacted by the ban, Venezuelans who rely on donations or remittances from relatives living abroad to survive, will be hurt by the decision, according to the New York TimesMany have relied on courier services from Miami to obtain hard-to-come-by medication, spare parts and foods.

“This will be a catastrophe for a lot of people,” said Feliciano Reyna, head of the health nonprofit Acción Solidaria, which receives medical donations from the United States through air courier services. “This will complicate enormously the transportation of humanitarian aid to the country.”

Accion Solidaria and other groups will now be forced to import their meds by sea or ship them through other countries, which will raise the cost and further restrict supply.

One airline that will be impacted: Avior Airlines, Venezuela’s largest private airline, which has operated daily flights to Miami from Caracas and the eastern city of Puerto La Cruz.

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1208 UP .00001 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.63 UP 0.163 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2824   DOWN   0.0023  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3406 DOWN .0034 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 1 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  RISING to 1.1208 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 17.03 POINTS OR 0.58% 

 

 

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 6.36 POINTS OR 0.02% 

 

 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .73%// EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 125.58 POINTS OR 0.59% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 6.36 POINTS OR 0.02%

 

 

 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17,03 POINTS OR 0.58% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .73% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 125.58  POINTS OR 0.59%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1294.10

silver:$14.79

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.38% !!! DOWN 0 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.82 DOWN 0  IN BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 97.54 DOWN 3 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  THURSDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.08%  DOWN 5 in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.06%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.91% DOWN 4   IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.68 DOWN  7  POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 177 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS –.10%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.78% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1178  DOWN     .0029 or 29 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.86 UP .394 OR YEN DOWN 39  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2800 DOWN .0046 POUND DOWN 46  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 7 basis points to 1.3435

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8837    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9166  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  56.0368 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.06%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.40 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.84 UP 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.80  UP 23  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 56.56  0.78%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 210.80 POINTS OR 1.74%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 73,85 POINTS OR 1.37%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 127.29 POINTS or 1.39%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 288,66 POINTS OR 1.38%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 63.36 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 73.08 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    64.52  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.14 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 14 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.10 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  63.04

 

 

BRENT :  72.67

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.40…   VERY DEADLY// invalids the dow/nasdaq rise

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.84..VERY DEADLY/invalidates the dow/nasdaq rise

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1175 ( DOWN 32   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.83 UP .357 (YEN DOWN 36 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.84 UP 27 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.2793 DOWN 55  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.0412

 

the Russian rouble 64,65   UP 0.01 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 1 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3466 DOWN 24 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.8837  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./LOWER YUAN VALUE INVALIDATES THE DOW RISE TODAY.

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9277 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/LOWER OFF SHORE YUAN INVALIDATES THE DOW RISE.

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.10%

 

The Dow closed  UP 214.66 POINTS OR 0.84%

 

NASDAQ closed UP  75.90 POINTS OR 0.97%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.61 CLOSED DOWN 0.83

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.525%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.524

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Global Markets Surge, Erase Trade-War-Escalation Losses

We had it all wrong after all – Global trade war escalation is bullish for global stocks after all!!!!

a

 

Chinese markets accelerated higher – erasing all losses post-trade-war escalation…

 

 

European stocks extended yesterday’s gains – soaring higher on the week…

 

 

US equities extended yesterday’s gains to erase the losses from trade war escalations and fill Sunday night/Monday morning’s gap down… but as the last hour hit, stocks started to fade.

 

So, Chinese stocks are up on the week (record buybacks), European stocks are up on the week, but US stocks are down on the week – who’s winning the trade war?

Another short-squeeze at the open… getting “most shorted” stocks almost back to unch..

 

Bonds and stocks remain decoupled (even as bonds were sold as stocks rallied today)…

 

 

Treasury yields rose on the day (up 2bps at the long-end and up 4bps at the short-end)…

 

 

But 10Y Yields are still well below 2.50%

 

 

The dollar soared today after a small dip at the European open…back to pre-payrolls levels…

 

 

Yuan tumbled through key support to its weakest since Nov 2018…yuan is down 7 of the last 8 days.

 

 

Ethereum outperformed today, soaring 50% on the week as Bitcoin dipped…

 

 

Notably, Bitcoin/Ethereum has been wild ride in the last few weeks…

 

 

Silver was slammed today as WTI surged…

 

 

Finally, global money supply continues to shrink rather unsupportively for stocks…

 

END

 

ii)Market data/

Housing starts and permits were expected to rise and they did but on a year/year basis housing starts have suffered its 7th annual decline in a row

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Housing Starts Suffer 7th Annual Decline In A Row Despite Surge In Northeast

Following last month’s disappointments, Housing starts and permits were expected to rebound in April and did with positive upward revisions for March data also.

  • Building Permits  rose 0.6% MoM in April (beating the 0.1% rise expected) and up from the upwardly revised -0.2% (from -1.7% prior) drop in March.
  • Housing Starts spiked 5.7% MoM in April (less than the expected 6.2% jump but March data was notably revised upward from a 0.3% drop to a 1.7% rise).

Starts rose for single- and multi-family units…

Driven by a massive (seasonal) surge in The Northeast:

  • Northeast: +84.6%
  • Midwest +42.0%
  • South -5.6%
  • West -5.5%

That’s the good news.

The bad news is that Housing Starts fell YoY for the 7th month in a row…

Building Permits for single-family units tumbled to its weakest since October 2016

So take your pick.

 

end

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

This is the continuing story by Brandon Smith on how the USA hegemony will end.  We are witnessing the globalists in their attack on the populist movement. There is no question that the USA cannot win in their trade battle with China.  You will recall Alasdair Macleod prove that unless the uSA citizens become savers, then trade deficits will continue despite the trade war. The following article is important and we must be cognizant of what might happen:  China and the rest of the world will liquidate their vast USA treasuries sending the USA into a hyperinflation panic. The Globalist goal:  one government, one currency..and the USA must go.

a must read…

(courtesy Brandon Smith/AltMarket.com)

America Will Lose The Trade War Because That Is What Globalists Want To Happen

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

Times of great political and social crisis can almost always be linked back to a common root cause – false paradigms. There are many people out there who have no clue what this phrase means, just as they have no clue what the phrase “controlled opposition” means. Some of these people are new activists to the liberty movement who recently joined because of the fervor of the Trump presidential campaign. They think the world of sovereignty and nationalism revolves around Trump, because frankly, they have been duped by a false paradigm themselves.

False paradigms are a base tactic of what is known as “4th Generation Warfare”. The purpose of 4th Gen warfare is described in the document ‘From Psyop To Mindwar’. A document circulated within the DoD by the 7th Psychological Operations Group and written by now former General Paul Vallely (spelled “Valley” in the document) and now former Lt. Colonel Michael Aquino (a self professed satanist, believe it or not). I recommend it as a means to understand how globalists tend to think, how they use division to conquer populations, and to come to terms with the fact that these people are not held in check by empathy, morality or reason.

As far as 4th Gen warfare is concerned, Mindwar describes a method of psychological manipulation and propaganda used by governments and militaries as a means to turn a target population against itself. The goal is to win a war against a group of people by causing them to destroy each other so that the government does not have to combat them directly.

False paradigms are a premier tool for pursuing this outcome. They are achieved by dividing a population through false leadership, fake and sometimes real outside threats, as well as manufactured crisis events. Globalist institutions and the political puppets they control use false paradigms as a means to distract the public away from their criminal endeavors. While we are focused on the political Left, or the political Right, or the Russians, or the Iranians, or the Chinese, they are exploiting our fear and doubt to gain more centralization and more power.

For globalists, the great prize is, of course, OPEN global economic management (rather than covert management), a one world currency and cashless society, as well global government. They want a veritable worldwide feudal plantation state – and they want the masses to embrace it willingly, or perhaps even beg for it. To obtain this prize, they will need a considerable economic disaster.  The US economy and the dollar would have to be undermined, for Americans would not consent to global governance as long as our society remains relatively affluent and comfortable.

But how is this being accomplished by the elites…? And, what does the trade war have to do with their plans?

Global Banking Elites And The Controlled Demolition Of The US

I have been writing extensively on the controlled demolition of the US economy for some time now. In January of 2018 I predicted in my article ‘Party While You Can – Central Bank Ready To Pop The Everything Bubble’ that Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve would pursue policy tightening and would continue until the bubble in fundamentals, corporate debt, consumer debt, housing, retail, stock markets, etc. collapsed. So far I have been proven correct; the fundamentals are plunging, and only stock markets remain. In the 2nd quarter of 2019 the Fed is still cutting assets exponentially from its balance sheet and still refuses to pull interest rates back from their neutral rate of inflation, despite the predictions of many in the mainstream and alternative media.

The Fed has used the tactic of addictive stimulus measures and artificially low interest rates to create massive financial bubbles in the past. And, they almost always use tightening policies in times of economic weakness to deliberately pop those bubbles. For example, this is exactly what happened at the onset of the Great Depression. As former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke openly admitted in 2002 in an address in honor of Milton Friedman:

“In short, according to Friedman and Schwartz, because of institutional changes and misguided doctrines, the banking panics of the Great Contraction were much more severe and widespread than would have normally occurred during a downturn.

Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again.”

And yet, it IS happening again today. As the economy nosedives, banking institutions buy up more hard assets and consolidate more power, and each time global economic management is suggested as a possible solution to the very crisis they created.

My question has never been “Will there be a crash?” A crash of the US is mathematically inevitable, it is happening now in accelerated fashion, and has been progressing in various ways since 2008. Instead my question has always been “How do the globalists plan to get away with it?”

In my article ‘Trump Trade Wars A Perfect Smokescreen For A Market Crash’, published in March 2018, I outlined exactly how they plan to get away with it. In that article I examined the strange number of similarities in policy and politics between Donald Trump and Herbert Hoover, including the use of large scale tariffs right before the collapse of the US financial system. While it was the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases into weakness that exacerbated and prolonged the Great Depression for many years, it was Herbert Hoover’s policies (and sometimes the gold standard) that were blamed for the crash.

In other words, Donald Trump is following almost the exact same path as Herbert Hoover, and Trump’s trade war with China is being used by the banking elites as cover for their sabotage of the US economy. In the end, it will be Trump and all of his “populist” followers that will get the blame for the destabilization of our financial structure. The central bankers have a perfect scapegoat.

Trump And The False Left/Right Paradigm

But how could the banking elites and globalists possibly predict Trump’s behavior in order to take advantage of it? Well, if you look at Trump’s background as well as the number of elites he has placed within his own cabinet, the reality if the situation becomes clear: Trump is a puppet, and always has been.

In my article ‘Trump Is A Pied Piper For The New World Order’ I outlined Trump’s history with the banking elites, including his relationship with Rothschild banking agent Wilber Ross, who bailed Trump out of his debts and saved him from the effects of bankruptcy in the 1990’s. Trump’s biggest campaign promise in 2016 was to “drain the swamp” in Washington D.C. of the financial elitists and globalists that Hillary Clinton was so closely tied to. But, when he entered the White House, he made Wilber Ross his Secretary of Commerce, hired on Goldman Sachs goons like Steven Mnuchin and Gary Cohn, and he has brought warmongering psychopathic think tank members like John Bolton and Mike Pompeo into his cabinet.

The globalists don’t have to predict Trump’s behavior, they dictate Trump’s behavior. Thus, the false left/right paradigm reigns supreme once again; the same paradigm many Trump followers thought they were escaping by rallying against a Clinton presidency.

Current Trump cheerleaders completely ignore this fact, however. I have not seen a single one of them confront the issue of Trump’s cabinet or his associations with the Rothschilds. They either ignore it outright, or they claim Trump is “keeping his enemies close” or “using their expertise to free America”. This is insanity, but it showcases the power that false paradigms have. Conservatives were so afraid of Clinton that they jumped on the bandwagon of Trump’s controlled opposition administration, and they refuse to admit they have been conned.

How have globalists benefited from Trump being in the White House, though?

Trump has gone on to attach his presidency so closely to the performance of the economy and primarily stock markets, that any crash now will undoubtedly be blamed on him. This is strange behavior if you consider his statements during his campaign, including his assertion that the Fed was deliberately keeping interest rates low to protect Obama, and that the stock market was a giant fraudulent bubble. Today, Trump is demanding that the Fed funds rate be lowered and that stimulus be renewed, and, he has been Tweeting incessantly about how the economy under his watch is the “greatest ever”.

To those who actually track the health of the US economy, Trump’s statements might seem delusional.  If you understand that Trump is controlled opposition and that he is playing the scripted role of a bumbling villain, his statements make perfect sense. The US economy is NOT the greatest it has ever been, in fact, it is the worst it has been since the crash of 2008, as I evidenced in detail in my article ‘The Crash In US Economic Fundamentals Is Accelerating’.  Trump is wrapping himself around the implosion of the Everything Bubble as a mascot of fiscal destruction, and he’s trying to drag all conservatives with him.

China And The False East/West Paradigm

The other side of the control mechanism for a crash of this magnitude is on the other side of the world – China. It is not only Trump that has to act a certain way in order to cover for the crash of the Everything Bubble, China must also play its role. The false East/West paradigm is perhaps the most pervasive of all false paradigms, for even many in the liberty movement think that governments in China or Russia are opposed to the elites in the US and Europe. This is simply not true.

China in particular has a long time relationship with Western globalists. In fact, modern China was essentially built by them.

The Rockefeller family and the Rockefeller Foundation have been influencing Chinese social and political developments since the late 1800’s. This started as seemingly innocuous, with the foundation initiating social and health related programs in rural areas, but as noted by historians with access to the Rockefeller Archives, the Rockefellers were not seeking to display their capacity for philanthropic charity, but pursuing wide reaching influence in Chinese society and politics. For more information, I highly recommend reading Frank Ninkovich’s study of the Rockefeller’s dominance in China for the past century in the Journal Of American History.

China’s central bank is currently linked to the Bank For international Settlements, which is often referred to as the “central bank of central banks” and as admitted in an article for Harpers in 1983, the BIS essentially writes policy for all member banks – this means the Chinese central bank AND the Federal Reserve are both controlled by the globalists at the BIS.  This is even more evident in recent years as all major central banks have operated with an odd level of coordination to prop up the stock markets of other nations, including stock markets of nations that are supposedly in conflict.

China also now works closely with the IMF – the Yuan has been inducted into the SDR basket system, and China has called on multiple occasions for the SDR basket to replace the US dollar as the world reserve structure. The IMF is openly discussing the introduction of a cashless digital currency system based on blockchain technology, which I believe will be the likely replacement for ALL currencies when the time comes.

This means the trade war is a farce.  When it comes to the elites of China and the US, there is no division and no conflict.  They all want the same thing – global centralization.

The Trade War Smokescreen

For many years I have warned that the next World War would be an economic world war between the East and West, and that this war would be engineered by globalists as a mass distraction while they introduced their one world economic system. The crux of that economic war would be the eventual dumping of US treasuries by foreign central banks as well as the dollar as the world reserve currency.

What many pro-trade war people don’t seem to realize is that the dollar’s world reserve status was part of the original deal with China. China gained a trade surplus and access to US markets, the US gained a cheap labor pool, access to cheap goods and our currency was accepted by the Chinese as the foundation of international trade. But this dynamic no longer serves globalist interests in the new system they hope to create.

As described in an article published in the Rothschild run magazine The Economist in 1988, the US economy has to be brought down to pave the way for the new global currency system.  Globalist Mohamed El-Erian confirmed this plan in a 2017 op-ed for The Guardian.  And, as globalist George Soros stated in 2009, China is intended to take a larger role in the IMF and become the economic engine for the “new world order”, while the US is set to take a back seat in global affairs as the rest of the world moves away from the dollar.

This might be why US 10 year treasury auctions are seeing dismal results, and why the Chinese are now willing to threaten the dumping of US T-bonds through their state run media.  China has NOT folded to US tariffs as so many people have been predicting for the past year.  In fact, China has dug in even further.

China is the number one exporter/importer in the world. They now set the standard for international trade, not the US. If China follows through on threats to dump US treasuries, or if they dump the dollar as the world reserve, then most if not all of their trading partners will do the same. The consequences would be devastating for the US economy, which has a minimal manufacturing base and is utterly reliant on the international acceptance of the dollar to keep prices low and to prop up what’s left of our financial structure.

While proponents of the trade war keep insisting that manufacturing will come back to the US, this still has not materialized. Why would corporations spend all the money to rebuild factories in the US when they can simply stay in Asia and use the existing factories and cheap labor? There is no incentive for them to come back. If tariffs go higher, they can easily raise prices on consumers to support their bottom line.

The US is being set up for a spectacular fall. Those that claim China would never make such a move don’t understand the Chinese economy. The US market is only 18% of Chinese exports, and US consumption has been declining. The vast majority of China’s GDP comes from domestic consumption, and the claim that China is dependent on US markets to survive is one of the most widely perpetuated lies of the past decade. The Chinese will take a hit to their economy, certainly, but nowhere near the hit the US economy will take if they cut off the dollar as the primary trade mechanism.

The trade war only makes sense if you look at it from the globalist perspective. China will get hurt to an extent, the US will suffer an economic disaster it will never recover from, and only the globalists truly benefit.  With tensions increasing, probably through the end of 2019, I suspect the Federal Reserve will increase cuts to their balance sheet under cover of the trade war.  I also suspect that China’s central bank will finally cut off stimulus measures which have been keeping global stocks afloat for the past four months.  This will eventually trigger the crash of markets on top of already plunging fundamentals.

The US will lose the trade war, Trump and conservatives will be blamed for the collapse, China will already be pre-positioned as the next economic engine for the world, and the IMF and BIS will introduce their one world currency system as the solution to the problem they created. Whether or not they succeed in this plan will greatly depend on whether or not enough people set aside their biases and accept that the whole thing was a farce from the very beginning.

*  * *

If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

end

The tariffs are killing USA farmers.

(courtesy Mac Slavo)

American Farmers Are Losing Patience And Money In Record Numbers!

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

American farmers are being pushed to the brink by government policies.  Most have had enough of the trade war and are increasingly becoming impatient with their financial instability and worsening regulatory burdens placed on their backs.

Bankruptcies are skyrocketing, food prices are expected to soar, and American farmers are losing patience with their inability to keep up. For the most part, farmers have stood behind president Donald Trump’s mission to get a better trade deal with China. One that addresses long-standing issues with what they say are “unfair trading practices,” however, they now seem to be in the crosshairs of the feud.

After weeks of optimistic statements by Trump and members of his administration about how trade talks were progressing, Trump abruptly escalated tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods last week and opened the door to even more. This move prompted Beijing to hit back Monday by raising the tariff rate on $60 billion of US items, according to reporting by CNN.

Some farmers are even saying Trump now “owes” them a solution to the problems they face because of his policies.

“The President of the United States owes farmers like myself some type of plan of action,” John Wesley Boyd Jr., a soybean farmer in Baskerville, Virginia, told CNN‘s Brianna Keilar on Monday.

“Farmers were his base. They helped elect this president… and now he’s turning his back on America’s farmers when we need him the most,” he added.

The sad truth is that the woes that farmers have come face to face with will impact every single person who purchases food. We’ll all see fewer products for higher prices with the potential for a full-blown food crisis in the near future. Soybean, corn, and wheat growers have been battling tariffs from China for nearly a year now. Beijing imposed those duties in retaliation to tariffs put on Chinese products by the Trump administration. The tariffs made those American agricultural products more expensive for Chinese importers, and private buyers have mostly stopped buying American-grown soybeans or wheat because of said tariffs.

With no end to this economic disaster in sight, farmers have begun to grow worried and impatient with the Trump administration. Our speculation is that Trump never had a deal with China worked out in the first place.  His goal has always been to try to “stick it” to the Chinese, however, in doing so, he’s punishing the American farmerconsumer, and business owner more than the Chinese government.  It’s simply not working, and while we understand why Trump started the trade war, it’s hard to understand why he insists on continuing and amplifying it.

END
Too much rain has killed off much the corn planting
(courtesy michael Snyder)

Farmageddon Looms: Only 30% Of US Corn Fields Have Been Planted, 5 Year Average Is 66%

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

2019 is turning out to be a nightmare that never ends for the agriculture industry.  Thanks to endless rain and unprecedented flooding, fields all over the middle part of the country are absolutely soaked right now, and this has prevented many farmers from getting their crops in the ground.  I knew that this was a problem, but when I heard that only 30 percent of U.S. corn fields had been planted as of Sunday, I had a really hard time believing it.  But it turns out that number is 100 percent accurate.  And at this point corn farmers are up against a wall because crop insurance final planting dates have either already passed or are coming up very quickly.  In addition, for every day after May 15th that corn is not in the ground, farmers lose approximately 2 percent of their yield.  Unfortunately, more rain is on the way, and it looks like thousands of corn farmers will not be able to plant corn at all this year.  It is no exaggeration to say that what we are facing is a true national catastrophe.

According to the Department of Agricultureover the past five years an average of 66 percent of all corn fields were already planted by now…

U.S. farmers seeded 30% of the U.S. 2019 corn crop by Sunday, the government said, lagging the five-year average of 66%. The soybean crop was 9% planted, behind the five-year average of 29%.

Soybean farmers have more time to recover, but they are facing a unique problem of their own which we will talk about later in the article.

But first, let’s take a look at the corn planting numbers from some of our most important corn producing states.  I think that you will agree that these numbers are almost too crazy to believe…

Iowa: 48 percent planted – 5 year average 76 percent

Minnesota: 21 percent planted – 5 year average 65 percent

North Dakota: 11 percent planted – 5 year average 43 percent

South Dakota: 4 percent planted – 5 year average 54 percent

Yes, you read those numbers correctly.

Can you imagine what this is going to do to food prices?

Many farmers are extremely eager to plant crops, but the wet conditions have made it impossible.  The following comes from ABC 7 Chicago

McNeill grows corn and soybeans on more than 500 acres in Grayslake. But much of his farmland is underwater right now, and all of it is too wet to plant. Rain is a farmer’s friend in the summer but in the spring too much rain keeps farmers from planting.

The unusually wet spring has affected farmers throughout the Midwest, but Illinois has been especially hard hit. Experts say with the soil so wet, heavy and cold, it takes the air out and washes nutrients away, making it difficult if not impossible for seeds to take root.

Right now, soil moisture levels in the state of Illinois “are in the 90th to 99th percentile statewide”.  In other words, the entire state is completely and utterly drenched.

As a result, very few Illinois farmers have been able to get corn or soybeans in the ground at this point

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s crop progress reports, about 11% of Illinois corn has been planted and about 4% of soybeans. Last year at this time, 88% of corn and 56% of soybeans were in the ground.

I would use the word “catastrophe” to describe what Illinois farmers are facing, but the truth is that what they are going through is far beyond that.

Normally, if corn farmers have a problem getting corn in the ground then they just switch to soybeans instead.  But thanks to the trade war, soybean exports have plummeted dramatically, and the price of soybeans is the lowest that it has been in a decade.

As a result there is very little profit, if any, in growing soybeans this year

Farmers in many parts of the corn belt have suffered from a wet and cooler spring, which has prevented them from planting corn. Typically when it becomes too late to plant corn, farmers will instead plant soybeans, which can grow later into the fall before harvest is required. Yet now, planting soybeans with the overabundance already in bins and scant hope for sales to one of the biggest buyers in China, could raise the risk of a financial disaster.

And if the wet conditions persist, many soybean farms are not going to be able to plant crops at all this year.

Sadly, global weather patterns are continuing to go haywire, and much more rain is coming to the middle of the country starting on Friday

Any hopes of getting corn and soybean planting back on track in the U.S. may be washed away starting Friday as a pair of storms threaten to deliver a “one-two punch” of soaking rain and tornadoes across the Great Plains and Midwest through next week.

As much as 3 to 5 inches (8 to 13 centimeters) of rain will soak soils from South Dakota and Minnesota south to Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas, according to the U.S. Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland.

We have never had a year quite like this before, and U.S. food production is going to be substantially below expectations.  I very much encourage everyone to get prepared for much higher food prices and a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the months ahead.

Even though I have been regularly documenting the nightmarish agricultural conditions in the middle of the country, the numbers in this article are much worse than I thought they would be at this point in 2019.

This is truly a major national crisis, and it is just getting started.

SWAMP STORIES

What a riot: there is now a dispute as to whether it was Comey or Brennan who pushed the Steele dossier:  i.e. to be included into the intelligence community assessment

(courtesy zerohedge)

FBI-CIA Dispute Erupts Over Whether Comey Or Brennan Pushed Steele Dossier

A dispute has erupted over whether former FBI Director James Comey or his CIA counterpart, John Brennan, promoted the unverified Steele dossier as the Obama-era intelligence community targeted the Trump campaign.

According to Fox Newsan email chain exists which indicates that Comey told bureau subordinates that Brennan insisted on the dossier’s inclusion in the intelligence community assessment (ICA) on Russian interference. Also interesting is that the dossier was referred to as “crown material” in the emails – a possible reference to the fact that Steele is a former British spy.

In a statement to Fox, however, a former CIA official “put the blame squarely on Comey.” 

“Former Director Brennan, along with former [Director of National Intelligence] James Clapper, are the ones who opposed James Comey’s recommendation that the Steele Dossier be included in the intelligence report,” said the official.

“They opposed this because the dossier was in no way used to develop the ICA,” the official continued. “The intelligence analysts didn’t include it when they were doing their work because it wasn’t corroborated intelligence, therefore it wasn’t used and it wasn’t included. Brennan and Clapper prevented it from being added into the official assessment. James Comey then decided on his own to brief Trump about the document.

Former GOP Rep. Trey Gowdy – a longtime defender of the FBI – told Fox News‘ Martha MacCallum on Tuesday night that “Comey has a better argument than Brennan, based on what I’ve seen.”

In March, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) suggested over Twitter that Brennan had “insisted that the unverified and fake Steele dossier” be included in the January 2017 ICA.

Senator Rand Paul

@RandPaul

BREAKING: A high-level source tells me it was Brennan who insisted that the unverified and fake Steele dossier be included in the Intelligence Report… Brennan should be asked to testify under oath in Congress ASAP.

The dossier was ultimately not included in the ICA according to previous testimony by Clapper. Meanwhile, word that Comey had briefed President Trump personally on the dossier – “because he understood reporters already had that information and it could become public soon if journalists had a “news hook,” according to the Associated Press. And as it so happens – the fact that Comey briefed Trump is what CNN and Buzzfeed caim legitimized their decision to publicly release the salacious and unverified dossier.

Whether the FBI acted appropriately in obtaining the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrant to Trump campaign aide Carter Page is now the subject not only of U.S. Attorney John Durham’s new probe, but also the ongoing review by Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz. U.S. Attorney for Utah John Huber has been conducting his own investigation separately, although details of his progress were unclear.

As one example, in its FISA application, the bureau repeatedly and incorrectly assured the court in a footnote that it “does not believe” British ex-spy Christopher Steele was the direct source for a Yahoo News article implicating Page in Russian collusion, and instead asserted that the Yahoo article provided an independent basis to believe Steele. –Fox News

On Sunday, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) told Fox News that he was pushing to declassify documents which would expose the FBI’s dismal efforts to verify the claims within the dossier.

“There’s a document that’s classified that I’m gonna try to get unclassified that takes the dossier — all the pages of it — and it has verification to one side,” said Graham. “There really is no verification, other than media reports that were generated by reporters that received the dossier.”

Graham noted a report by The Hill‘s John Solomon that the FBI was specifically told that Steele was “keen” to leak his salacious dossier for the purpose of influencing the 2016 US election. The agency also knew that the document’s claims were either unverified or disproven, yet it was used anyway against Trump and his campaign.

END

SWAMP STORIES/KEY STORIES/KING REPORT

(COURTESY OF CHRIS POWELL OF GATA)

Disappointing Chinese economic data on Wednesday

  • Apr Industrial Output 5.4%; 6.5% exp
  • Apr Retail Sales 7.2%; 8.6% exp
  • Jan-Apr Fixed Investment 6.1%; 6.4% exp

China April industrial output cools, retail sales growth falls to 16-yr low as trade risks risehttp://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-activity-idUSKCN1SL05J

Disappointing US economic data on Wednesday

  • Apr Retail Sales -0.2%, +0.2% exp
  • Apr Retail Sales Ex-Autos 0.1%; 0.7% exp
  • Apr Retail Sales Ex-Autos & Gas -0.2%; +0.3% exp
  • Apr Industrial Production -0.5%; unch exp
  • Apr Manufacturing Production -0.5%; unch exp
  • Apr Capacity Utilization 77.9%; 78.7% exp

Near the open, Mnuchin verbally intervened, braying that the US and China are in “serious” trade talks.

Minutes later, this appeared: Trump administration to delay auto tariffs by up to six months

The White House faces a Saturday deadline to decide whether to slap duties on car and auto part imports over national security concerns…

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/15/trump-administration-to-delay-auto-tariffs-amid-trade-war.html

After yesterday’s close, Trump issued an emergency EO that could limit Chinese telecom sales in the US.  The order does not ban sales outright; but it gives the Commerce Department the power to do so.  The really big issue is that Chinese law compels its companies to cooperate with China’s intel agencies.

Trump declares national emergency over threats against US technology amid campaign against Huawei     https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/15/trump-signs-executive-order-declaring-national-emergency-over-threats-against-us-technology.html

@HuXijin_GT: In Chinese internet, many people describe the current China-US tussle as The Art of the Deal v.s. On Protracted War. The latter was written by Mao Zedong in 1938 during China’s anti-Japanese war. Protracted war is well known among Chinese as a strategy to exhaust opponent.

[We asserted that this was China’s strategy, ala Japan, many moons ago.]

Today – The S&P 500 Index had another Outside Day on Wednesday.  Traders will be sensitive to the S&P 500 Index’s high (2858.68) and low (2815.08) from yesterday.

The two big questions for traders: 1) were the Weird Wednesday and Tuesday manipulations the bulk of expiry manipulation?  2) Will Trump or one of his stooges surface and perform verbal intervention?

Dispute erupts over whether Brennan, Comey pushed Steele dossier, as DOJ probe into misconduct begins – Sources familiar with the records told Fox News that a late-2016 email chain indicated then-FBI Director James Comey told bureau subordinates that then-CIA Director Brennan insisted the dossier be included in the intelligence community assessment on Russian interference, known as the ICA…

      On Tuesday night, former GOP Rep. Trey Gowdy said on Fox News’ “The Story with Martha MacCallum” that “Comey has a better argument than Brennan, based on what I’ve seen.”…

    But in a statement to Fox News, a former CIA official put the blame squarely on Comey.  “Former Director Brennan, along with former [Director of National Intelligence] James Clapper, are the ones who opposed James Comey’s recommendation that the Steele Dossier be included in the intelligence report,” the official said…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dispute-erupts-over-whether-brennan-comey-pushed-steele-dossier-as-doj-probe-into-misconduct-begins

 

Later on Fox that night, ex-US Atty for DC, Joe di Genova told Laura Ingraham: “This is very serious business. For the first time I believe some of these guys are going to prison… Let me tell you something, Horowitz has already concluded that the final three FISAs were completely illegal. He’s now on the brink of finding that the first FISA was completely illegal. Durham has already used a grand jury in Connecticut. They’ve already gotten documents. He’s already talked to the intel people… This is now – big time! This is where Brennan needs five lawyers. Comey needs five lawyers…”

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/05/boom-joe-digenova-for-the-first-time-i-believe-these-guys-are-going-to-jail-this-is-big-time-brennan-and-comey-needs-5-attorneys-video/

 

Former Republican South Carolina Rep. Trey Gowdy… said when he was in office, he saw anFBI spreadsheet that cited news articles and information from longtime Clinton insider Sidney Blumenthal as corroboration for the dossier…

    Blumenthal, who is one of the Clintons’ closest political allies, was involved in shopping around a report that contained some of the same allegations about Donald Trump that were included in Steele’s document. That eight-page report was authored by Cody Shearer, another longtime Clinton insider who is close friends with Blumenthal…   https://dailycaller.com/2019/05/15/gowdy-steele-fbi-blumenthal/

Rep. Gohmert: We’ve got to start having Hearings on the FISA Courts…The fact that no FISA Court has reacted violently to having a fraud committed on the Court, raises the issue of perhaps we had a FISA Judge, or more, who were part of this scam to take down a duly elected President.

(Harvey: Gohmert is a former Judge form Texas)

 

Email Exchange between State Department Official and Bruce Ohr Targeting Trump with Steele Dossier Material – Ohr: ‘I really hope we can get something going here.’…

    Kavalec then replies to Ohr, saying that she had just reviewed the notes from her October 2016 meeting with Steele stating, “I see Chris [Steele] and [Simon] Kukes has [sic] some connection to Serge Millian.”  Millian is a Russian businessman who was an alleged source for the anti-Trump dossier. He developed a relationship with Trump campaign aide George Papadopoulos in 2016…

https://www.judicialwatch.org/press-room/press-releases/judicial-watch-releases-email-exchange-between-state-department-official-and-bruce-ohr-targeting-trump-with-steele-dossier-material/

 

Kevin Brock, ex-FBI Asst. Dir. of Intel: Jim Comey’s own words justify Bill Barr’s review

AG Barr understands well that the FBI is dead as an agency — undeserving of the nation’s trust — if it is commonly perceived to be a weapon for political vagaries… So now Comey’s game plan seems to be an appeal to emotion: We had to investigate the Trump campaign because he is such a terrible person and, as articulated by his investigator, Peter Strzok, someone who had to be “stopped.”

    There’s a problem with that. FBI agents are not allowed to investigate individuals based on emotion or because they don’t like someone, or that someone has distasteful character traits. (For this, all politicians should be grateful.)  Comey’s insistent disgust with Trump, and his urging Americans to vote Democrat in last fall’s midterms, have produced legitimate concerns that his decisions as FBI director were influenced by personal animus and political biases…

https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/443741-jim-comeys-own-words-justify-bill-barrs-review

 

@JackPosobiec: “Iraq is going to be a two-month war, not an eight-year war” – Bill Kristol [key Neocon & NeverTrumper; VP Quayle’s Chief of Staff], March 29 2003   It is now 2019 and we are still in Iraq

end

WILL SEE YOU FRIDAY NIGHT

I AM PROVIDING A LITTLE ADVANCE WARNING THAT ON MAY 23.2019 I WILL NOT PROVIDE A COMMENTARY. HOWEVER LATE IN THE EVENING I WILL PROVIDE ONLY THE COMEX DATA.

 

 

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