JUNE 6//GOLD UP $8.80 TO $1338.40 BUT WHACKED DOWN $5.00 IN THE ACCESS MARKET ON A SUSPICIOUS RUMOUR ON MEXICO//SILVER UP 9 CENTS TO $14.92 AND AT ITS 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE//BUYING IN SILVER WILL INTENSIFY ONCE THE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE IS PIERCED// YESTERDAY GLD LOST 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD DESPITE A RISE OF 6 DOLLARS//ECB ANNOUNCES NEW TERMS FOR ITS TLTRO WHICH IS VERY BULLISH FOR GOLD..THIS IS NOTHING SHORT OF QE//MEXICO IS DESPERATE AS THEY TRY AND AVOID INCREASES IN TARIFFS..YET MEXICO IS THE PRIME SUPPLIER OF SILVER TO THE USA//TRUMP THREATENS CHINA WITH AN ADDITIONAL 300 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF TARIFFS//USA TRADE DEFICIT SHRINKS ON POOR EXPORTS, LOWER IMPORTS//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//.

 

 

GOLD: $1338.40  UP $8.40 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $14.92 UP 9 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)//at its 200 day moving average

Closing access prices:

Gold : 1336.00

 

silver:  $14.92

 

SORRY FOR YESTERDAY BUT MY INTERNET WAS OUT FOR 24 HOURS.  IT WAS RESTORED THIS AFTERNOON AND I HAVE UPDATED ALL OF THE COMEX//GLD/SLV DATA FOR YOU

 

 

 

YOUR DATA…

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING  3/28

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JUNE 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,328.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/05/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 06/07/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
323 H HSBC 16
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
661 C JP MORGAN 1 3
686 C INTL FCSTONE 22 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 4 3
800 C MAREX SPEC 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 28 28
MONTH TO DATE: 528

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 28 NOTICE(S) FOR 2800 OZ (0.0087 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  528 NOTICES FOR 52800 OZ  (1.642 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JUNE

 

 

46 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 230,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 308 for 1540,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 7690 DOWN 74 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7645 DOWN 200

 

 

 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 651 CONTRACTS FROM 216,145 UP TO 215,494 DESPITE THE TINY 4 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.( LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED FOR SILVER AND IT STOPPED FOR GOLD AS WELL. WE WILL WITNESS A RISE IN THE SPREADERS IN SILVER ONCE WE START TRADING IN JUNE… READY FOR THE FIRST DAY NOTICE JULY CONTRACT.) TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A VERY LARGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

 0 FOR MAY, 0 FOR JUNE, 3602 FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  3602 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3602 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3602 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 18.01 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 4 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

1.560 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JUNE:

12,600 CONTRACTS (FOR 4 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 12,600 CONTRACTS) OR 63.000 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 3150 CONTRACTS OR 15.75 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JUNE:  63.00 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 9.00% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          951.71    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 651 DESPITE THE 4 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3602 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS WILL RESUME THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES FOR SILVER ONCE THE JUNE CONTRACT COMMENCES IN EARNEST….

TODAY WE GAINED AN STRONG SIZED: 2951 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 3602 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 651  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A TINY 4 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.83 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.082 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 152% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 46 NOTICE(S) FOR 230,000, OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 1.330 MILLION OZ//
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING:  WE  PROBABLY HAD GOOD ACTIVITY OF THE SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN SILVER TODAY//  

 

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCHED TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 8181 CONTRACTS, TO 489,676 WITH THE GOOD  $6.00 PRICE GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// YESTERDAY/THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS STOPPED AND THESE SPREADING FELLOWS WILL MORPH INTO SILVER ONCE JUNE GETS UNDERWAY.  THE GAIN IN OI GOLD CONTRACTS IS REAL AND NOT PUMPED UP BY SPREADING.   

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 16,748 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS, AUGUST 2019: 16,748 CONTRACTS, JUNE 2020  0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 489,676.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 24,992 CONTRACTS: 8181 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 16,748 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 24,929 CONTRACTS OR 2,492,900 OZ OR 77.53 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GOOD GAIN OF $6.00 IN GOLD TRADING….AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 77.53  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING COPIOUS SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER.

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 58,719 CONTRACTS OR 5,871,900 OR 182,64 TONNES (4 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 14,679 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 4 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 182,64 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 182.64/3550 x 100% TONNES =5.14% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     2460.55 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 8181 WITH THE PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK ON YESTERDAY($6.00)) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 16,748 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 16,748 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 24,929 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

16,748 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 8181 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 77.53 TONNES). ..AND THIS GAIN OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE OF $6.00 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE  HAD ZERO PRESENCE OF SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN GOLD  ///TODAY/

 

 

 

we had:  28 notice(s) filed upon for 2800 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY//

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

 

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY:

A BIG CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 651 CONTRACTS from 216,145 UP TO 215,494 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED THEIR LIQUIDATION IN SILVER AND GOLD FOR NOW  BUT WILL NOW MORPH INTO SILVER AS THE COMEX SILVER MONTH OF JUNE COMMENCES IN EARNEST..

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 0 FOR MAY, FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 3602 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3602 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 299 CONTRACTS TO THE 3602 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 2951 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 14.76MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A SDETRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY AND NOW 1.560 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE.

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE TINY 4 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE SIZED 3602 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

 

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

 

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 China/Chinese affairs

i)China

This will hurt Huawei as a monstrous 30% of all orders to key suppliers have been cancelled due to the USA product ban

( zerohedge)

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

 

i) ECB

This will be good for gold:  The ECB announces rates unchanged and then announced new TLTRO terms. The TLTRO is the exact same thing as QE

( zerohedge)

ii)The Europeans were not happy: they wanted more bang for their buck as the Euro jumps but stocks fall

(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Mexico/USA

After failing to reach a deal with the uSA, we now witness Mexican troops block migrants at Mexico’s southern border.

( zerohedge)

The USA and Mexico in last ditch efforts in an attempt to avoid tariffs

(courtesy zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

i)VENEZUELA/

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)India’s gold imports jumped a huge 49%( Reuters)

ii)Brought this to you yesterday but it is worth repeating:  China is now looking beyond USA  treasuries as they are no doubt trying to void USA hegemony

(Reuters/gata)

iii)A repeat of yesterday’s major story.  Italy wants to incorporation a new alternative currency, the min bot which will be a forerunner of the new Lira.  If implemented the entire European banking system implodes as I explained yesterday

( London’s financial Times)

iv)Interesting:  Russian central bank will only sell roubles for dollars and not yuan.  Pay close attention to this:  Russia’s chief central banker Elvira Nabiullina is one smart cookie. I guess she thinks that China will implode their currency before the uSA does.( SCMP/GATA)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/

I)Trump signals more Chinese tariffs

(zerohedge)

II)MARKET TRADING/EARLY THIS MORNING

Trump signals more Chinese tariffs

ii)Market data

a)USA exports and imports plunge.  Thus the trade deficit shrinks but GDP is faltering

( zerohedge)

b)Mish Shedlock comments on the discrepancy on the two job reports and how the Bureau double or triple counts individuals.  If you have 3 part time jobs the Bureau records this as 3 jobs

(courtesy Mish Shedlock)

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)As outlined above:  Trump is threatening China with an additional 300 billion dollars worth of tariffs on their goods.

( zerohedge)

b)heavy duty truck orders collapse and we are now at 3 yr lows and a huge 70% in the May reading

( zerohedge)

c)My goodness:  just take a look at Los Angeles:  the homeless population now jumps in LA County to almost 59,000

(courtesy zerohedge)

d)This is a very good commentary from Brandon Smith.  We have been highlighting his commentaries for the past few years.  Today he outlines why the trade wars will turn out to be an economic world war iiii

(courtesy Brandon Smith)

SWAMP STORIES

a)It looks like the past is catching up to Biden as this will for sure mire with campaign in 2020

( zerohedge)

b)Looks like Elijah Cummings and his wife have a lot of explaining to do as records reveal charity money was transferred to the “for profit” company

oh well..what else is new in the swamp
(courtesy zerohedge)
E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
end
LET US BEGIN:

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG  SIZED 8181 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 489,676 WITH THE  RISE OF $6.00 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 16,748 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

0 FOR JUNE ’19: 0 CONTRACTS , AUG; 16,748 CONTRACTS: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  16,748 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 24,929 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 16,748 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG  SIZED 8181 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  24,929 CONTRACTS OR 2,492,900 OZ OR 77.53 TONNES.

 

We are now in the  active contract month of JUNE and here the open interest stands at 1337 CONTRACTS as we lost 29 contracts.  We had  52 notices filed yesterday so we strangely gained 23 contracts or 2300 oz of gold that will  stand for delivery as there appears to be some gold at the comex and thus they refused to morph into London based forwards (as they are trying their luck  finding the fast vanishing supplies of physical gold over here) as well as negating a fiat bonus for their effort.  The next contract month is the non active month of July and here the OI fell by 99 contracts down to 1316 contracts.  The next big active month for deliverable gold is August and here the OI rose by 7034 contracts up to 368,415.

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 28 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  2800 OZ. (0.0087 TONNES)

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.4

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 651 CONTRACTS FROM 216,145 UP TO 215,494 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S SMALL  OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED DESPITE THE  4 CENT RISE IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.  HERE WE HAVE 50 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A GAIN OF 6 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 46 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 230,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX.  NOTICE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOLD AND SILVER.  WE STILL HAVE SOME PHYSICAL SILVER IN THE PITS AT THE COMEX AND THUS THE COMMERCIALS WILL GO AFTER THAT SUPPLY TO PUT OUT FIRES ELSEWHERE.  (WITH GOLD, THERE IS NO SUPPLY LEFT. OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE IN DEEP TROUBLE WITH RESPECT TO GOLD.)

THE NEXT MONTH AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY.  HERE THE OI FELL BY 647 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 150,841.  WE GAINED 7 CONTRACTS OF OI FOR AUGUST TO STAND AT 17. THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 382 CONTRACTS UP TO 29,972 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 46 notice(s) filed for 230,000 OZ for the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 235,423  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  429,464  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JUNE/GOLD

June 6/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
NIL
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

2899.97 oz

hsbc

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
28 notice(s)
 2800 OZ
(0.0087 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1309 contracts
(130,900 oz)
4.071 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
528 notices
52,800 OZ
1.642 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

STILL: NO GOLD ENTERS THE GOLD COMEX

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into hsbc:  2899.97 oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: 2899.97  oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside/ tiny stuff arrived   today

we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

Gold withdrawals;

i)  We had 0 withdrawal:

 

 

 

.

total gold withdrawals; nil   oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today

FOR THE JUNE 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 28 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 3 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (528) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JUNE. (1337 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (28 x 100 oz per contract) equals 183,700 OZ OR 5.713 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of MAY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (528 x 100 oz)  + (1337)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (28 x 100 oz )which equals 183,700 oz standing OR 5.713 TONNES in this  active delivery month of JUNE.

We gained 29 contracts or an additional 2900 oz will  stand as these guys refused to morph into London based as they were looking for  real gold at the comex in New York.

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 7.3210 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 5.713 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  235,383.253 oz or  7.32104 tonnes (we had a huge adjustment yesterday of gold leaving the customer and entering the dealer)
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,675,233.390 oz 238.73 tonnes

 

 

 

OF OPEN INTERESTS FOR THE UPCOMING JUNE 2019 CONTRACT VS JUNE 2018

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE INITIAL JUNE 2018 CONTRACT WE HAD A HUGE 32.152 TONNES STAND. (VS 5.713 TONNES TODAY/JUNE 2019)

HOWEVER BY MONTH’S END ONLY 21.56 TONNES EVENTUALLY STOOD AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.  AS YOU CAN SEE, THE CROOKS ARE FOLLOWING THE SAME FORMAT OF MORPHING VS LAST YEAR AS ONLY GOLD VAPOUR SEEMS TO BE PHYSICALLY PRESENT AT THE COMEX AND LONGS MUST TRY THEIR LUCK IN LONDON.

IN THE LAST 32 MONTHS 117 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF June

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
june 6 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,418,369.125 oz
CNT
Delaware’
Loomis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
20,058.210 oz
loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)
46
CONTRACT(S)
(230,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
4 contracts
20,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 308 contracts

1,540,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: NIL  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 149.469 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.80% of all official comex silver. (149 million/307 milli

i)into Loomis: 20,058.210 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  20,058.210  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) out of Loomis:  1,316,008.240 0z

 

ii) out of Delaware: 2885.150 oz

iii)  out of CNT 99,475.735 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total 1,418,369.125  oz

 

we had 0 adjustment :

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  87.819 million

total dealer + customer silver:  303.558 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JUNE 2019. contract month is represented by 46 contract(s) FOR  230,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 308 x 5,000 oz = 1,310,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE. (50) and the number of notices served upon today (46 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JUNE/2019 contract month: 308(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY( 50) -number of notices served upon today (50)x 5000 oz equals 1,560,000 oz of silver standing for the JN contract month.

WE GAINED 46 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 230,000 OZ WILL STAND AS THESE GUYS REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS. THERE ARE PHYSICAL SUPPLIES OF SILVER AT THE COMEX AND THUS WE WITNESS  QUEUE JUMPING IN FULL FORCE. IN GOLD THERE IS NO PHYSICAL OUNCES PRESENT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 46notice(s) filed for 230,000 OZfor the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

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TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  83,640 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 145,076 CONTRACTS..(we no doubt had considerable spreading activity as they are now starting to accumulate in silver)

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 145,076 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 725 million  OZ 103.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

 

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NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -2.96% June 6/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.78% to NAV (june 6/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2,96%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.19 TRADING 12.70/DISCOUNT 3.72

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

jUNE 6/WITH GOLD UP  $8.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $6.00 TODAY/STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

JUNE 4/WITH GOLD UP 0.85 TODAY: A MONSTROUS PAPER GAIN OF 16.44 TONNES/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.65 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD UP $17.50 TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE, A DEPOSIT OF 2.35 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//

MAY 31/WITH GOLD UP $17.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES

MAY 30: WI6H GOLD UP $6.40 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES

MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES

MAY 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES

MAY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.81 TONNES

MAY 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY: A STRANGE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FORM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738,81 TONNES

MAY 22//WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: WE HAD A GOOD 1.52 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 739.69 TONNES

 

MAY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.65 TODAY: A SURPRISE 2.00 TONNES WERE ADDED  TO THE GLD GOLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.17 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 A HUGE 2.96 TONNE DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.17 TONNES

MAY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.50: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.23 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 15/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

MAY 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45 TODAY: STRANGE!! THE CROOKS DECIDED TO DEPOSIT A HUGE 3.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

MAY 13/ WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $15.40 TODAY: STRANGE! A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.41 TONNES OF GOLD (TO TAME GOLD’S RISE TODAY)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 10 WITH GOLD UP $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 9//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 7/ WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $9.35 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.52

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

 

 

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JUNE 6/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 757.59 tonnes

*IN LAST 606 TRADING DAYS: 176.38 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 506 TRADING DAYS: A NET 10.54 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

jUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 9 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZE DEPOSIT OF 630,087 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.396 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.434 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 4/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//

MAY 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 422,000 OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ/

May 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ///

MAY 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ/

MAY 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 22/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 311.616 MILLION OZ

MAY 21: WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ

MAY 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.185 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY VAULTS:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ//

MAY 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ//

MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV  INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.031 MILLION OZ//  THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ.

MAY 14/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

MAY 13//WITH SILVE5 DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ…

MAY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///

MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///

MAY 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 891,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

MAY 3//WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 843,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/TOTAL INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.691 MILLION OZ//

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 13 CENTS, MIRACUOUSLY THE AUTHORITIES ADD 2.869 MILLION OZ OF SILVER BACK INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.848 MILLION OZ//

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ////

 

JUNE 6/2019:

 

Inventory 315.652 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.09/ and libor 6 month duration 2.40

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .31

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.15%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.38

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.23

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Global Collapse In Trust Is Driving A Secret Bull Market In Gold

by Dominic Frisby of Money Week

Every year, Incrementum AG – a Liechtenstein-based investment company – puts out its research note, In Gold We Trust.

At over 300 pages, it’s probably the most comprehensive gold analysis there is.

The 2019 edition came out just last week, and I thought this week I’d share some of the charts with you – those that really jumped out at me.

How much more distrusting have we become? Check out these charts

The main authors of In Gold We Trust – Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark J Valek – are (as you might expect) hardcore goldbugs. Theirs is a world view with which many MoneyWeek readers will have a lot of sympathy. I know do.

Chart of trust in governments

There is too much debt in the world, especially government debt. Easy money, low rates, monetary manipulation, the balance sheets of central banks and all the rest of it have stored up a host of problems, and when the dam breaks it will be nasty. Gold is thus an essential diversifier in everybody’s portfolio.

One word, however, appeared more frequently than I have ever known it to. It’s a word with which bitcoin bugs will be only to familiar – “trust”. Bitcoin, of course, was designed to obviate the need for it – “in proof we trust”, runs the saying.

Incrementum observes that in the West, trust is disappearing. People no longer trust their governments. They do not trust their politicians. They do not trust their scientists, or their economists. Experts are biased. The media is biased. Even systems and processes are no longer trusted – whether it’s education, healthcare, even democracy itself.

The blue squares in the chart below chart declining levels of political trust in various countries around the world. Interestingly, Finland has seen the biggest falls.

It’s easy to explain why such trust should have evaporated, from lies about the Iraq war, to the authorities’ reaction to the financial crisis of 2008. Society, as a result, has become polarised in a way that we simply weren’t used in the nineties and early noughties.

It’s interesting that the UK actually saw a marginal rise in trust between 2007 and 2016, albeit from much lower levels. This probably reflects the difference in perception between the Brown and Cameron administrations. When the 2018-2019 data gets released, I think you’ll see UK trust in governments at an all-time low.

As far as Incrementum (and any like-minded gold or bitcoin bug) is concerned, this loss of trust in our institutions and in each other is leading up to the humdinger – a loss of trust in money itself. Indeed, that’s why bitcoin was designed in the first place.

At a global level, this is manifesting itself in mutual distrust among central banks. Some have repatriated gold held overseas, while others have been increasing their gold holdings in what is known as the de-dollarisation of the economy. Hungary has increased its gold holdings tenfold, for example. That’s extreme – but most nations are at it.

Chart of trend in official gold reserves

It’s no coincidence that the change in trend began in 2008. That’s when they bailed out the banks. What struck me, in particular, was, cumulatively, how much gold Russia has bought.

Chart of Russian gold reserves

While the growth in China’s holdings, as I have written about before, is extraordinary.

Chart of Chinese gold reserves

So loss of trust was one big theme of this year’s report. And these central bank reserve charts go some way to demonstrating the scale aof that loss of trust.

Gold’s secret bull market

I just want to cover a couple more charts which caught my eye.

We tend to think of gold in US dollar terms, because that is the official price in which gold is measured. As a result, our perception is that gold peaked in 2011 at $1,920 per ounce and has been in a bear market ever since. Today it sits around $1,330.

But over the same period the US dollar has largely been in a bull market. It has been strengthening against most currencies.

On the other hand, I’ve often described gold as a hedge against your own government. And in the UK, for example, it has served that purpose well. Gold was £700/oz in early 2016, before the Brexit vote. Today it’s 50% higher, at roughly £1,050.

In this next chart we see the world price of gold – ie gold plotted against all major national currencies. You wouldn’t know it, but by this measure, gold has been in a bull market since 2013.

Chart of the world gold price vs gold price in US dollars

Gold has, in other words, been doing what it is supposed to do.

There are many great charts in the report, and I recommend you take a look. But I wanted to finish off with one final chart that caught my eye.

Commodity prices are incredibly low, believe it or not

A common theme of mine in recent years has been the extraordinary valuation ascribed to the digital economy, while the real economy has lagged. Whether it’s the valuations ascribed to FANG stocks or bitcoin, or the earnings of tech entrepreneurs, the digital economy has eclipsed the physical economy. The reason is scalability, as I outlined last week.

Real stuff is a burden. The physical economy is hard. Nowhere is this dichotomy more apparent than in the commodities markets. We think of the great commodities bull market of the 2000s, and then the subsequent bear market we are in today.

But oil is still above $50 a barrel, copper costs nearly $6,000 a tonne, and wheat is around $200 a bushel. Prices don’t feel that low.

However, if we look at commodity prices relative to stock prices, they are actually more depressed than they were at the turn of the century, before that great secular bull market. In fact they’re almost as low as they were in the late 1960s.

Here we see the ratio of the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index against the Dow Jones.

Chart of the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index against the Dow Jones

I don’t think it starts tomorrow. Probably not even this decade. But the stage is being set for a turnaround in commodities – and as such the real economy. And if all the inflation that has built up over the last decade manifests itself in commodity prices, then you really will need to own some gold.

For now, amid the recent stockmarket correction, gold has had a nice little rally over this past couple of weeks to around $1,330. It’s looking strong. But the big barrier remains that $1,360 area that has been resistance for some five years now. Will 2019 be the year it gets through? Let’s hope so.

By Dominic Frisby via Money Week

Own Gold & Silver Coins (CGT Free in the UK) Stored In Zurich With Six Months Free Storage

LBMA Gold Prices (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM Fix)
05-Jun-19 1337.75 1335.05, 1052.01 1049.22 & 1185.38 1184.99
04-Jun-19  1323.60 1324.25, 1045.51 1043.77 & 1177.47 1177.26
03-Jun-19  1313.95 1317.10, 1039.47 1042.35 & 1175.99 1175.38
30-May-19 1276.45 1280.95, 1010.44 1015.92 & 1146.25 1151.70
29-May-19 1283.50 1281.65, 1016.02 1013.27 & 1151.04 1150.67
28-May-19 1283.90 1278.30, 1012.87 1008.20 & 1146.91 1142.29
27-May-19 Closed for UK Holiday
24-May-19 1281.50 1282.50, 1011.36 1011.89 & 1145.92 1145.40
23-May-19 1275.95 1283.65, 1009.79 1015.37 & 1146.19 1152.46

News and Commentary

Gold Settles at a 3 1/2-month High After ADP Report Reveals Very Weak Hiring

Gold Rises to 15-wk High as Trade-conflicts, Rate Cut Hopes Fuel Demand

Wall St. Climbs as Weak Private Jobs Data Boost Rate Cut Hopes

Fed Says Contacts Worry About Trade War; Economy Growing Modestly

Gold at 3-month High Amid Rate-cut Expectations

Global Risks Increasing – Underlining The Case For Gold – Watch Video Here

Gold Price Is Poised To Leap Upwards: Bloomberg’s McGlone (Radio)

The Global Collapse in Trust Has Driven a Secret Bull Market in Gold

Mish: Gold Gains As Faith In Central Banks Is About To Be Tested Again

The Fed Dusts Off “Whatever It Takes”

Italy Revives ‘alternative Currency’ Proposal

German Bundesbank Comes Clean on Euro Default Risks After Italy’s ‘Parallel Currency’ Decree

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
 

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

India’s gold imports jumped a huge 49%

(courtesy Reuters)

India’s gold imports in May jumped 49% on festive demand

 Section: 

By Aftab Ahmed and Rajendra Jadhav
Reuters
Tuesday, June 4, 2019

India’s gold imports in May jumped 49 percent from a year earlier to 116 tonnes as a correction in local prices during a key festival boosted retail demand, a government source said today.

end
Brought this to you yesterday but it is worth repeating:  China is now looking beyond USA  treasuries as they are no doubt trying to void USA hegemony
(Reuters)

China looks beyond U.S. Treasuries for dollar investments

 Section: 

By Abhinav Ramnarayan, Virginia Furness
Reuters
Tuesday, June 4, 2019

LONDON — China may be expanding its investments beyond U.S. Treasuries into debt issued by top-rated European and other government agencies, allowing it to keep its money in dollar assets while picking up some extra yield, bankers with knowledge of the matter say.

For the remainder of the report:

Prominent among these are the European Investment Bank, a development bank backed by European Union countries, KfW, a German government-guaranteed institution, and AIIB, a Beijing-based pan-Asian development bank that issued its first ever bond last month. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-treasuries/china-looks-beyond-u-s-…

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

end
A repeat of yesterday’s major story.  Italy wants to incorporation a new alternative currency, the min bot which will be a forerunner of the new Lira.  If implemented the entire European banking system implodes as I explained yesterday
(courtesy London’s financial Times)

Italy revives ‘alternative currency’ proposal

 Section: 

By Davide Ghiglione and Valentina Romei
Financial Times, London
Wednesday, June 5, 2019

Debate is growing in Italy about the suggestion that a new domestic currency could be introduced by the government to pay its debts — and the possibility that Rome’s Eurosceptic coalition might use it to facilitate the nation’s departure from the euro.

Prominent members of deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini’s ruling League party have floated the proposal — which was endorsed by a vote in the Italian parliament last week. But how would it work, and how likely is it to happen?

… 

 

The Italian government should issue debt in small denominations that can change hands as a medium of exchange — that, at least, is the view of key advisers to Mr Salvini.Claudio Borghi, one of the League’s most influential economic advisers, has championed the idea, as has Alberto Bagnai, president of the finance committee in Rome’s Senate. Mr Borghi, who has been strongly critical of Italy’s membership of the single currency, is president of the budget committee in the lower house of Italy’s parliament.

The proposal involves creating a new type of Treasury bill — dubbed mini-bills of Treasury (mini-BOTs) — which could be used by the government to pay the arrears it owes to commercial businesses, and by citizens to pay their taxes, Mr Borghi has suggested.

Thus it would have the scope to grow into what would in effect be a parallel domestic currency, separate from Italy’s official currency, the euro. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/aca3c80a-86ac-11e9-97ea-05ac2431f453

end

Interesting:  Russian central bank will only sell roubles for dollars and not yuan.  Pay close attention to this:  Russia’s chief central banker Elvira Nabiullina is one smart cookie. I guess she thinks that China will implode their currency before the uSA does.

(courtesy SCMP/GATA)

Despite Russia’s ties to China, Russian banks will sell rubles only for dollars, not yuan

 Section: 

China, Russia Urged to Continue Efforts to Defang U.S.-dollar Sanctions Weapon

By Laura Zhou
South China Morning Post, Hong Kong
Wednesday, June 5, 2019

China and Russia should avoid using U.S. dollars in financial translations to minimise Washington’s ability to bully other countries into following its rules with the threat of sanctions, according to a top adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The two nations have been keen to cut their dependence on the U.S. dollar for some time, and continue to talk about establishing a new system for direct yuan-rouble settlements despite multiple delays.

… 

The U.S. is the most powerful economy in the world. If we want to avoid dollar hegemony, the first thing we need to do is to avoid using dollars, because the foundation of the U.S. economy is based on the dollar reserves owned by other countries and this has given it the ability and confidence to press other countries to play by its rules,” said economist Sergey Glaziev. …

The dependence of the Russian economy on the U.S. dollar was illustrated by three failed attempts this week during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum to exchange Chinese yuan for Russian roubles. Three major Russian banks refused to process the transaction, saying they would sell roubles only for U.S. dollars. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3013246/china-russia…



iii) Other Physical stories

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: UPDATE: GLD turnaround very positive for gold

Gold showed signs of weakness through most of April and May and no less than 35 tonnes of gold were liquidated out of GLD, the world’s largest gold ETF, between April 1st and the Memorial Day holiday on May 27th. But as so often seems to be the case, the U.S. holiday seemed to trigger a turning point and, since then, GLD has added around 20 tonnes of gold to its holdings (although there was a withdrawal yesterday when the gold price turned down a few dollars – we think temporarily). And the GLD increase has coincided with a very sharp uptick in the gold price which is currently approaching $1,340 spot as I write, after a brief stutter – a big increase from a low point of around $1,275 only a week ago.

This is no coincidence as both the GLD deposits and the rising gold price signify a major change in sentiment about the prospects for gold from some of the big money funds. Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater, reputed to be the world’s biggest hedge fund with around $150 billion under management, has been leading the clarion call for gold. Dalio is said to be a gold believer and is reported as recently having his fund increase its gold exposure in the light of what he sees as an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China which he regards as potentially moving out of control. In a recent blog post he noted “History shows that countries in conflict have seen that such conflicts can easily slip beyond their control and become terrible wars that all parties, including the leaders who got their countries into them, deeply regretted, so the parties in the negotiations should be careful that that doesn’t happen. Right now we are seeing brinksmanship negotiations, so it is a risky time.”

While that may be a contentious assessment of the current trade negotiations, many feel that Dalio has a strong point here and President Trump’s ‘shoot from the hip’ approach to weaponise U.S.-assumed financial clout certainly has huge dangers – not least for segments of the U.S.’s own economy. National leaders, who have ‘face’ to protect – particularly China – may not cave in to bullying tactics of this type as easily as Trump’s business rivals may have done in the past. Equity markets in the U.S. and globally are looking nervous and there are fears around of a full-on global recession.

Where Dalio is seen to go, others follow, so it is not too surprising that GLD seems to be seeing gold inflows. The big question is how far can this apparent change in sentiment boost the gold price before it is seen as having risen too far too fast with a correction coming back in?

But meanwhile there are other elements boosting the gold price – not least a falling U.S. dollar index which usually coincides with a rising gold price. Geopolitical tensions seem to be ever-present, there are ongoing tariff, counter-tariff and economic sanction impositions, the U.S. Fed is now seen as more likely to cut interest rates rather than raise them, equity market nervousness, central bank gold buying, etc. All these would seem to be in favour of an increasing role for gold globally. Thus the target for a $1,400 plus gold price in the second half of the year would seem to be comfortably in play again. Indeed even higher price levels may come about should some of the current global tensions remain unresolved or escalate further.

06 Jun 2019

-END-

end
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end
GOLD//SILVER TRADING TODAY:

 

end

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9101/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9288   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 33.62 POINTS OR 1.17%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 69,80 POINTS OR 0.26%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 2.06 POINTS OR 0.01%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index FALLS TO 97.13/Euro RISES TO 1.1256

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.12/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.31/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 51.64 and Brent: 60.91

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.22%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.52% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.62%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.75: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.92

3k Gold at $1337.10silver at: 14.93   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 22/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.11

3m oil into the 51 dollar handle for WTI and 60 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.25 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9917 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1166 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.22%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.10% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.59%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.7691..

 

Rally Fizzles As Trade Tensions Mount But Central Banks Say “Buy, Buy, Buy”

US equity futures and European market advanced on Thursday, ignoring the latest slump in Chinese stocks, as the hope of easier monetary policy continued to help fuel a rebound in stocks. The euphoria of recent days was gone, however, as German bond yields plumbed new record lows on Thursday and U.S. treasury yields resumed their fall as renewed trade tensions re-emerged overnight.

Sentiment soured on a lack of progress in talks between U.S. and Mexican officials and after President Trump issued a fresh threat to hit China with tariffs on “at least” another $300 billion worth of Chinese goods. The latest escalation followed a mixed bag of economic data that sparked fresh recession fears, but was also offset by expectations that central banks will ride to the rescue.

As a result, the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan and the Nikkei eased a touch, the pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.6%, with Germany’s DAX up 0.5% while France’s CAC gained 0.7%. US equity futures were up 8 points, tracking European gains.

Early in the session, Chinese stocks fell despite the PBOC’s 500 billion yuan cash injection via a 500 billion MLF, to offset a maturing 463 billion yuan loans. This however was seen as insufficient by the market, and the Shanghai Composite dropped 0.5% and Shenzhen Comp loses 1.2%.

European stocks shrugged off losses in Chinese equities to rise for a fourth straight day, pushing the Stoxx 50 up 0.7%, however gains in Europe were driven by defensive sectors such as utilities, real estate and consumer staples rather than riskier sectors. Much focus was also on the auto sector after Italy’s Fiat Chrysler Automobiles MV abandoned its $35 billion offer for Renault SA, the latter seeing its shares tumble as much as 8%, and depressing automakers which were among the laggards.

“We are still caught in this whirlwind of conflicting economic and corporate stories… we are getting mixed political signals, and quite mixed economic news,” said Andrew Milligan, head of global strategy at Aberdeen Standard Investments. “We have not seen people move away from safe haven assets.”

Meanwhile in rates, a buy on dips mentality continues to dictate price action in bond markets, with most European sovereign yields steady to 4bps lower across the curves. The 10-yr BTP/bund spread was 1bp wider at 271bps, as the yield on Germany’s 10-year government bond fell to new all-time lows ahead of the EBC’s June meeting.

At the same time, the two-year Treasury yields struck their lowest since December 2017, while futures have priced in around 70bps of easing by December. the 10Y Treasury remains firm with 10-year yield off 3bps at 2.10%; Aussie curve steepens for fourth day on 3-year strength. JGB futures retrace about half of Wednesday’s rally. Dalian iron falls 2.4%; WTI crude near $51.80

European yields are likely to slide even more after the ECB tries to boost the eurozone economy and may even set the stage for more action later this year as an escalating global trade war saps growth and unravels the benefits of years of ECB stimulus. In a long-flagged move, the ECB is likely to unveil the TLTRO, offering to pay banks if they borrow cash from the central bank and pass it on to households and firms.

In currency markets, the safe-haven yen was rose, nudging the dollar down 0.2% to 108.21. The dollar lingered against a basket of currencies to trade at 97.234, having bounced from a seven-week low overnight. The euro traded at $1.1240 after briefly stretching as high as $1.1306 on Wednesday. “We expect the ECB to turn more dovish and push the euro lower,” said CBA FX analyst Joseph Capurso. “We expect the ECB to change their forward guidance on interest rates and to trim their macroeconomic projections and modify their forward interest rate guidance because of low inflation and heightened uncertainty about global trade.”

Meanwhile Mexico’s peso plunged as much as 1.3% under a double whammy from trade woes and ratings agency Fitch downgrading the country’s credit rating to BBB, while Moody’s changed its outlook to negative from stable. All of this saw the dollar jump 0.7% against a beleaguered Mexican peso.

In commodity markets, the non-stop chatter of rate cuts helped lift gold to 15-week highs and the precious metal was last trading at $1,332.71 per ounce. Oil prices flatlined after diving overnight when the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported the largest build in crude oil and oil product inventories since 1990. WTI was at $51.94 a barrel after having hit its lowest since January, while Brent crude futures stood at $60.91.

Expected data include trade balance and jobless claims. J.M. Smucker, Saputo, and Beyond Meat are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,836.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 376.21
  • MXAP down 0.2% to 153.58
  • MXAPJ down 0.1% to 501.50
  • Nikkei down 0.01% to 20,774.04
  • Topix down 0.3% to 1,524.91
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 26,965.28
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.2% to 2,827.80
  • Sensex down 1.1% to 39,628.42
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 6,383.00
  • Kospi up 0.1% to 2,069.11
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to -0.223%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1239
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 4.5 bps to 2.1%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.9 bps to 0.61%
  • Brent futures up 0.6% to $60.99/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,336.71
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 97.23

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • President Trump said “not nearly enough” progress was made in talks with Mexico to mitigate the flow of undocumented migrants and illegal drugs, raising the likelihood the U.S. will follow through with tariffs
  • U.S. and Mexican negotiators are set to resume talks Thursday with time running short to avert Trump’s threat to impose tariffs next week. The U.S. president, who’s traveling overseas, said that “not nearly enough” progress was made during a 90- minute meeting between Mexico’s foreign minister and top American officials
  • Trump also reiterated that the U.S. is prepared to place tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese imports and asserted Beijing “wants to make a deal badly”
  • China unveiled a stimulus plan to help spur demand for automobiles and electronics as the escalating tensions with the U.S. threaten to hurt the economy. Measures announced by the National Development and Reform Commission on Thursday include banning local governments from placing any new curbs on car purchases or limits on usage of new energy vehicles
  • The contest to succeed Theresa May as U.K. prime minister quickly shifted into high gear as rival candidates battled over the rights and wrongs of forcing through a no-deal Brexit. Ex-Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab riled moderates suggesting he could suspend Parliament to deliver Brexit
  • The three top players in Italy’s bickering populist coalition have come together to defy European Union budget rules as the bloc’s executive arm started disciplinary proceedings against Rome
  • India’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate for a third time this year and paved the way for more policy easing to support an economy growing at the slowest pace since 2014
  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin aims to talk about including a currency clause in a bilateral trade deal when he meets Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso on the sidelines of the G-20 conference in Japan this weekend, Asahi reports
  • U.S. economy broadly expanded in recent weeks and the business outlook remained “solidly positive,” according to a Fed’s Beige book
  • Tory leadership hopeful Michael Gove says he’s open to a further Brexit extension — but Dominic Raab rules one out
  • Denmark’s nationalists had their worst drubbing ever in Wednesday’s election with Mette Frederiksen set to become next prime minister
  • The three top players in Italy’s bickering populist coalition came together Wednesday to defy European Union budget rules as the bloc’s executive arm started disciplinary proceedings against Rome

Asian equity markets traded somewhat mixed with the region cautious after hopes of an agreement to avert Trump tariffs on Mexico have so far failed to materialize, although officials will continue discussions on Thursday. Nonetheless, ASX 200 (+0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (U/C) remained afloat as Australia continued to ride the wave of the lower rate environment and amid broad gains across the sectors aside from mining names, while the Japanese benchmark was also higher but with gains capped amid an indecisive currency, as well as weakness in automakers including Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors after Fiat abruptly withdrew its merger proposal for Renault. Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.2%) were mixed ahead of their extended weekend with initial weakness seen as Chinese press continued to point the blame on the US for the breakdown of negotiations and with Chinese agencies said to be collecting opinions on further countermeasures against the US. However, some of the losses were later pared after the PBoC announced CNY 500bln in 1-year MLFs and reiterated to keep liquidity in the banking system ample. Finally, 10yr JGBs pulled back to below the 153.50 level amid mild gains in Japanese stocks and as yields recovered from multi-year lows, while the enhanced liquidity auction for longer-dated JGBs also showed slightly weaker demand.

Top Asian News

  • China Unveils Stimulus to Help Sales of Cars, Electronics
  • Taiwan Central Bank Surprises With Comments on Currency Market
  • India Cuts Rate to 9-Year Low and Signals More Easing Ahead
  • Black Market in $2b of Meat Severed by Pig Fever Battle

European equities are higher across the board [Eurostoxx 50 +0.8%] as sentiment somewhat diverges from the mixed handover in Asia ahead of the ECB monetary policy decision. Sectors are mostly higher, although European Telecom names underperform with the likes of Vodafone (-3.0%) weighing on the sector as they are ex-dividend. Notable movers include Renault (-7.3%) after Fiat Chrysler (Unch) withdrew its merger offer after the French state, Renault’s largest shareholder, requested discussions be put off to a later date; albeit the French Budget Minister did note that future merger talks between the company may happen. The news of the break-up in talks saw most European autos open lower, although Renault competitor Peugeot (+2.0%) spiked to the top of the CAC. Elsewhere, the FTSE reshuffle is due to take place on June 24th, with confirmation that easyJet (+0.5%) and Hikma Pharmaceuticals (Unch) will be demoted, whilst JD sports (-0.4%) and Aveva (+1.1%) will be added to the blue-chip index. Furthermore, in Italy, the FTSE MIB will see Nexi (+1.1%) replace Banca Generali (+0.1%).

Top European News

  • German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Gain in Sign of Resilience
  • Russian Rate Cut Is Possible Next Week, Nabiullina Says
  • Rolls-Royce Transfers $5.8b of Pension Assets to L&G
  • Hillhouse Said to Near Deal to Acquire Scotch Brand Loch Lomond

In FX, the Dollar is off recovery highs, but the index is consolidating above the 97.000 axis after rebounding from sub-96.500 at one stage on Wednesday when Fed rate cut fever rose on the back of dovish leaning speeches from Brainard and Evans (latter changing tune somewhat from the previous day), hot on the heels of a dismal ADP survey (albeit partly corrective perhaps). Subsequent comments from Kaplan advocating the current wait-and-see policy and a solid looking services ISM helped the Greenback regain composure and the latest Beige Book also maintained a relatively upbeat tone. Hence, the DXY is holding within a 97.344-198 range ahead of more potentially pivotal US data and Fed commentary.

  • JPY/NZD/AUD/EUR – Usd/Jpy looks pretty tethered to the 108.00 level after another rally on improved risk sentiment and a resultant rebound in US Treasury yields fizzled out ahead of 108.50. However, the headline pair may now be hostage to option-related flows given a mass of mega expiries ranging from 108.00 to 109.00 and totalling 10.5 bn. Meanwhile, the Antipodean Dollars are both firmer vs their US counterpart, albeit not breaking fresh ground after recent RBA and RBNZ policy actions and guidance, with Aud/Usd and Nzd/Usd meandering between 0.6983-64 and 0.6633-18 respective parameters. Note, little net reaction to Aussie trade data overnight as a sub-forecast surplus was partly compensated by an encouraging rebound in exports. Elsewhere, the single currency is also fairly contained vs the Buck and generally eyeing the upcoming ECB policy meeting and press conference to see how dovish or not President Draghi is and anticipating details of TLTRO3 – see our Research Suite for a full preview. Eur/Usd is currently hovering around 1.1230 and also close to decent option expiry interest lying at 1.1220-30 in 2 bn and 1.1200-10 in 1.5 bn.
  • NOK/SEK – The Scandi Crowns have both bounced off worst levels to retest technical and psychological resistance vs the Euro around 9.7850 and 10.6000 respectively, with the former propped by an uptick in Norway’s 2019 mainland GDP forecast from the Stats office which also sees the Norges Bank hiking this month in line with official guidance.
  • CAD/GBP/CHF – All relatively flat vs the Usd, but the Loonie could derive some independent impetus from Canadian trade later and deviate from 1.3400-30 bounds, while Cable hovers just below 1.2700 and the Franc near 0.9950.

In commodities, WTI (+0.1%) and Brent (+0.5%) futures are higher on the day, but with gains capped as the benchmarks hold onto most of yesterday’s supply-sparked losses following the barrage of bearish numbers including record high US production and a mammoth surprise build in stockpiles. WTI tested resistance around the USD 52.00/bbl broke the level in a short-lived move, whilst its Brent counterpart briefly breached the USD 61.00/bbl to the upside. In terms of implications ahead of the OPEC gathering, concerns about the rise in US inventories were flagged by oil producers at the JMMC meeting, and this was reinforced by OPEC and allies yesterday in which OPEC Secretary General Barkindo noted that they will take the current “economic bearishness” into account when they meet in the coming weeks.  In terms of the meeting date, Russian Energy Minister Novak noted that he is discussing postponing the OPEC+ gathering to July 2nd/4th, ahead of a meeting with his Saudi counterpart on June 10th. Elsewhere, gold (+0.5%) extends on recent gains and remains near three-month highs as trade tensions show no signs of abating as US-Mexico talks failed to conclude with an agreement; albeit dialogue is expected to resume today. Meanwhile, copper declined to a two-year low amid the bleak demand outlook whilst Dalian iron ore futures were pressured by anticipation of increased supply.

US Event Calendar

  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior 10.9%
  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $50.7b deficit, prior $50.0b deficit
  • 8:30am: Nonfarm Productivity, est. 3.5%, prior 3.6%; Unit Labor Costs, est. -0.9%, prior -0.9%
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,000, prior 215,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.66m, prior 1.66m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 60.8
  • 12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, prior $3.73t deficit

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Berlin where I held a CEO dinner at our big DB Access German conference last night. Basically the theme of my dinner speech was that Germany had done wonderfully well from globalisation and was now in need of a revised business model to deal with what is a potentially vastly different world order going forward due to de-globalisation, the competitive threat of China, the tech revolution and Europe’s problems. Interestingly there wasn’t a huge push back from major business leaders in Germany. I flew to Berlin after opening our 23rd annual Leverage Finance conference back in London. I started my speech by asking the audience five question to gauge the mood and I thought I’d share the results for interest from a room that had several hundred investors.

  1. Where will European Crossover trade by YE 2019? (290 at the time). A) Sub 250 – 5%. B) 250-275 – 11%. C) 275-300 – 23%. D) 300-325 – 30%. E) 325-350 21%. F) Over 350 – 9%.
  2. For predicting the next US recession would you trust a US Economist or the Yield Curve more? A) Definitely a US Economist – 3%. B) More a US Economist but I would worry if the YC started to signal a recession and Economists didn’t – 12%. C) The Yield curve is usually a good indicator but I acknowledge that this time might be different as most US economists think – 50%. D) Definitely the Yield Curve – 34%.
  3. When will the next US recession occur? A) 2019 – 4%. B) 2020 – 27%. C) 2021 – 43%. D) 2022 – 20%. E) To infinity and beyond – 6%.
  4. Will President Trump get re-elected in 2020? A) YES – 74%. B) NO – 26%.
  5. Will a 10yr Italian BTP pay back par AND in Euros? A) YES – 67% B) NO – 33%.

The answers I found most interesting were those for the yield curve and Italy. Indeed the yield curve remains a favourite of investors as a predictive tool for the business cycle. Probably much more than economists trust in it. As for Italy, I did the same poll last year and the number expecting Italy to pay back its debt in full dropped from 79% to 67%. So it’s quite remarkable that in a two trillion Euro plus market, one thirds of investors expect there to be a haircut of some kind within a decade.

Anyway more on Italy later but plenty to get through this morning following a fairly action packed last 24 hours. Before we recap and comment on events there’s the not-so-small case of an ECB meeting to look ahead to today. Our economists expect today’s meeting to be more about signals than actions and beyond a 20bp discount on TLTRO3, think the focus will be on forward guidance, not tiering. We’ll also get new staff forecasts which should show some downgrades. Our colleagues ultimately expect the ECB to focus on preserving the easy policy stance by ensuring the market believes it has credible options to ease the stance further if necessary and protect the transmission mechanism from impairment. See their full summary here .

Back to markets where, one day after the biggest gain for US equities in months and a big sell-off in rates, we’re back to a slightly more measured tone for risk and another big repricing lower at the front end of the Treasury curve after a volatile day in rates. Indeed the MOVE index increased +3.16% again and stretched new 29-month highs. Two-year yields rallied -4.1 bps (down a further -3.4bps this morning) but they retraced off their early morning lows of -11.5bps. The initial catalyst for the sharp move was the worst ADP employment change reading (27k vs. 185k expected) since 2010 or more specifically since the recovery took hold which had the market once again debating rate cuts. However, a better than expected ISM non-manufacturing (56.9 vs. 55.4 expected) and one that included a much stronger 58.1 employment component reading slammed the breaks on the rally and helped yields rise again.

That being said, the July FOMC meeting is now priced in for 21bps of cuts, with 88bps of cuts priced in for the next 12 months. The market is still priced for a very dovish shift in policy. Friday’s jobs report is looking ever-more pivotal for the Fed and for markets. Despite the firming market expectations for rate cuts, the 2s10s curve actually bull steepened to 27.7bps (over 30bps intra-day and 28.8bps this morning) and to the steepest since November last year with 10y yields down a more modest -0.9bps (down a further -2.5bps this morning though). In three days the curve has actually steepened more than +8bps and it continues to defy inversion unlike most of the other common yield curve measures in the US. As we’ve mentioned numerous times this remains our favoured yield curve measure for predicting recession. Meanwhile the end result of all that for equities was a +0.82% and +0.64% move for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ respectively, while the USD was a touch stronger at +0.28% and US HY spreads narrowed -2bps. A decent move lower for WTI oil (-3.25%) post the latest inventories data, which showed another big build in US crude stockpiles, helped ensure that energy was the only industry sector in the red.

Of course we also had our daily dose of trade headlines yesterday. White House trade advisor Navarro said on CNN that Mexico still has time to stop US tariffs going into effect so long as the country addresses steps necessary to take asylum seekers and also heighten security at the border. Interestingly, he declared that the newly announced measures will be “good for the markets.” The tariffs are planned to take effect in four days, barring a change in policy from the White House. Meanwhile, President Trump has said overnight that “not nearly enough” progress was made in talks with Mexico which are set to continue today. He further added that “If no agreement is reached, Tariffs at the 5% level will begin on Monday, with monthly increases as per schedule,” while saying, “The higher the Tariffs go, the higher the number of companies that will move back to the USA!” The Mexican Peso flipped between gains and losses yesterday, ultimately ending -0.16% weaker and is down a further -0.92% this morning.

This morning in Asia markets are trading mixed as sentiment has been dampened by the US and Mexico failing to reach a deal yesterday. Chinese equity markets – the CSI (-0.20%), Shanghai Comp (-0.46%) and Shenzhen Comp (-1.16%) are all down while the Hang Seng (+0.22%) and Nikkei (+0.19%) are up. Futures on the S&P 500 are trading fattish (-0.04%). Markets in South Korea are closed for a holiday. In other overnight news, the PBOC added CNY 500bn to the financial system, its second-largest cash injection on record, likely in a move to ease liquidity concerns after a surprise takeover of a local lender last month.

Back to yesterday and mixed US data wasn’t the only big story in markets. In Europe, we got confirmation from the EU that they are taking the first steps of disciplinary action over Italy’s swelling debt issues. The risks around this issue were certainly rising, however our economists had thought that escalation was going to be more gradual, with an EDP more likely in Q4 after the draft 2020 budget. They have an updated note here . It certainly makes today’s ECB meeting more interesting, especially with regards to the TLTRO eligible collateral base and whether or not to increase it, as our colleagues noted yesterday. In any case the next thing to watch is to see if the EFC decide whether or not to back the EU’s decision, with a two-week or so timeframe to do so.

Thereafter the Commission has to prepare a report for ECOFIN, possibly for their 9 July planned meeting, so this is likely to rumble on for a while yet with the ultimate focus still being the draft 2020 budget in September. Italian assets underperformed yesterday with the FTSE MIB falling -0.36% (versus a +0.29% gain for the STOXX 600) and Italian Banks down -1.70%. Nevertheless, BTPs actually ended up rallying -4.6bps, reversing an intraday rise of +11.4bps, possibly boosted by Commissioner Moscovici’s conciliatory comment in an interview that “we are not talking about fines” and “we want to lead to a common future.” Bund yields fell -2.0bps to another fresh record low but taking the BTP-bund spread to 270bps, right near the middle of its recent range.

It wasn’t just Italy facing the wrath of the EU with Spain also getting a warning from the Commission that it faces a “significant risk of deviation from its 2019 and 2020 fiscal goal”. The details didn’t offer much new however with the Commission having also previously flagged concerns at the time of the failed budget negotiations in Spain at the end of 2018. It’s worth noting that Spain is also coming out of an EDP which therefore offers a bit more flexibility over the next few years with a headline deficit for example of likely closer to 2% of GDP in 2019 (versus 2.5% in 2018). One to watch however. It’s worth noting that the IBEX closed +0.36% yesterday however Spanish yields were still -3.4bps lower.

We also had some commentary from Fed officials again yesterday, with Governor Brainard and regional presidents Kaplan and Evans all speaking (all are voting members of the FOMC this year), plus the beige book of economic conditions. Brainard, viewed as near the center of the committee’s thinking, toed the same line as Clarida and Powell yesterday, saying that trade is a downside risk and that the Fed is prepared to adjust policy to sustain growth if needed. She also emphasised that she will be watching payrolls data closely, though she won’t read too much into any single months’ print. Separately, Dallas President Kaplan said that he would rather “be patient here” since it “its early to make a judgment” on whether a cut will be warranted. Chicago President Evans leaned more dovish, as he usually does, saying that low inflation “by itself could be a reason for a little more accommodation,” even before thinking about trade risks. Finally the beige book suggested that the economy continues to grow modestly but positively, though there were some signs of slowing activity and elevated uncertainty.

As for the remaining data yesterday, in the US the services PMI in May was unrevised at 50.9, leaving the composite also at 50.9. In Europe the services PMI for the Euro Area was confirmed at 52.9 and up 0.4pts versus the flash. That was partly as a result of a 0.4pt upward revision for Germany while Italy (50.0 vs. 49.8 expected) surprised on the upside. Italy’s composite (49.9 vs. 49.3 expected) remained in contraction for the sixth time in the last eight months however.

Before we recap the day ahead, Nick from my team published a new slide pack yesterday which provides a comprehensive overview of the supply and demand dynamics within the EUR non-financial HY market. We explore trends in issuance, redemptions, coupons and fund flows as well as taking a look at rating transitions between HY and IG. Click on the link here to read more.

To the day ahead now, where datawise this morning we have April factory orders and the final Q1 GDP revisions for the Euro Area. That data comes just before the aforementioned ECB meeting before we get Q1 nonfarm productivity and unit labour cost revisions, claims and the April trade balance data all in the US. We’re also due to hear from the BoJ’s Kuroda this morning, the BoE’s Carney and then the Fed’s Kaplan and Williams this afternoon. President Trump is also expected to meet with French President Macron while Chinese President Xi Jinping delivers the keynote address at an international economic forum in Russia.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 33.62 POINTS OR 1.11%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 69.80 POINTS OR 0.26%   /The Nikkei closed UP 2.06 POINTS OR 0.01%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .35%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9101 /Oil DOWN TO 52.49 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.38 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9101 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9288 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

 

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

SOUTH KOREA

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA/CHINESE AFFAIRS

China

This will hurt Huawei as a monstrous 30% of all orders to key suppliers have been cancelled due to the USA product ban

(courtesy zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

i) ECB

This will be good for gold:  The ECB announces rates unchanged and then announced new TLTRO terms. The TLTRO is the exact same thing as QE

(courtesy zerohedge)

ECB Extends Forward Guidance, Will Keep Rates Unchanged Until First Half Of 2020, Announces TLTRO Terms

With the ECB scrambling to offset the accelerating European contraction, moments ago Mario Draghi announced that the three main rates would remain unchanged (as expected) at least through the first half of 2020, extending the “patient” forward guidance period, from “the end of 2019” previously.

The Governing Council now expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the first half of 2020, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

And while the ECB also noted that it would continue reinvesting principal bond maturities, “for as long as necessary to maintain favorable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation” as expected, the notable other change in today’s statement was the ECB’s disclosure of the terms of the TLTRO, which “will be set at a level that is 10 basis points above the average rate applied in the Eurosystem’s main refinancing operations over the life of the respective TLTRO.”  For those banks whose eligible net lending exceeds a benchmark, “the rate applied in TLTRO III will be lower and can be as low as the average interest rate on the deposit facility prevailing over the life of the operation plus 10 basis points.”

While in line with expectations, the TLTRO rate was seen as slightly less favorable than expected by the market.

Full announcement:

At today’s meeting, which was held in Vilnius, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) took the following monetary policy decisions:

(1) The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council now expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the first half of 2020, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are belowbut close to, 2% over the medium term.

(2) The Governing Council intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the asset purchase programme for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.

(3) Regarding the modalities of the new series of quarterly targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III), the Governing Council decided that the interest rate in each operation will be set at a level that is 10 basis points above the average rate applied in the Eurosystem’s main refinancing operations over the life of the respective TLTRO. For banks whose eligible net lending exceeds a benchmark, the rate applied in TLTRO III will be lower and can be as low as the average interest rate on the deposit facility prevailing over the life of the operation plus 10 basis points.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these

And a redline comparison to the prior statement:

In kneejerk reaction, the Euro first tumbled then spiked while German bonds are steady after the ECB extended forward guidance: the German 10y yield steady at -0.229%, just shy of an all time low, while Italy’s 10y up 2 bps to 2.48%. At the same time, the 5y5y inflation swaps steady at 1.28%, close to the lowest level since 2016 as the ECB’s credibility is fading away with every single announcement.

Watch this space for Draghi’s press conference in 45 minutes.

end

The Europeans were not happy: they wanted more bang for their buck as the Euro jumps but stocks fall

(courtesy zerohedge)

Draghi Disappoints As ECB Announcement Seen Less Than “Big Bang”; Euro Jumps, Stoxx Slides

Traders were looking with much hope to today’s ECB announcement which, despite the highly anticipated extension of forward guidance from late 2019 to “at least the first half of 2020”, proved to be a dud, and “not the big bang” many had expected, according to Commerzbank (which itself is struggling to find a buyer these days).

According to Commerzbank strategist Christoph Rieger, the TLTRO 3 had a hawkish aftertaste, and “being less generous than the prior wave of cheap loans” means that some in the market will have been left disappointed by the ECB’s lack of dovishness.”

“This is not the big bang some were speculating about,” he said, adding that “The extension to forward guidance is no more than a footnote given what the market is pricing.”

Perhaps watching the Euro spike in response to the announcement, Rieger noted that “If anything, it could even resonate hawkishly with the focus still on when the first hike could come.”

In short, “the bar remains high for Draghi to beat market expectations; bunds should regain traction though, with risk assets disappointed and euro stronger, and no relief for breakevens.”

Meanwhile, “Contrary to assumptions Draghi has sought to bind his successor by extending forward guidance to H1 2020 — the flip-side being that it also implies no cuts until then” according to CIBC FX strategist Jeremy Stretch. Echoing Rieger, he said that early details of the TLTRO III level being not as generous as the previous incarnation may have also provided EUR some support.

Elsewhere, CLSA’s Valentin Marinov, the extended forward guidance and the TLTRO III modalities “sound like a botched compromise between the Governing Council hawks and doves, but nothing dramatic.” Additionally, there was no mention of tiering so “lack of genuine dovish surprises could help EUR as EUR-funded carry trades get unwound.”

Finally, according to Mizuho’s Peter Chatwell, the declines in the front-end of the German curve after the shift in ECB forward guidance shows that unless President Mario Draghi gives hints about easing in his press conference, today’s meeting will have tightened financial conditions while inflation expectations are near record lows.

“How can Draghi rescue this poor market reaction? By pointing to the possibility for policy rates to go lower in the future, if the weakness in inflation persists,” Chatwell said.

As noted previously, after the announcement, the 5y5y inflation swap rate was at 1.27%, close to the lowest level since 2016, while the German 2y yield rose +3bps to -0.65%, and the 10y +1bps to -0.22%, just shy of all time lows.

And with no “big bang” delivered by Draghi, the market reacted appropriately, with the EURUSD first sliding, then spiking once the terms of the announcement were digested…

… which in turn hit European Stoxx, which wiped out much of the session’s gains.

 

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

 

END

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

Mexico/USA

After failing to reach a deal with the uSA, we now witness Mexican troops block migrants at Mexico’s southern border.

(courtesy zerohedge

Armed Mexican Troops Block Migrants At Southern Border After Tariff Talks Tank

 

One day after US and Mexican negotiators failed to reach a deal to prevent punitive US tariffs from going into effect over border security, Mexican soldiers, armed police and migration officials blocked hundreds of migrants after they crossed into Mexico from Guatemala in a caravan on Wednesday.

 

A migrant argues with a federal police officer during a joint operation by the Mexican government to stop a caravan of Central American migrants on their way to the U.S., at Metapa de Dominguez, in Chiapas state, Mexico June 5, 2019. REUTERS/Jose Torres

According to Reuters, the response from Mexico marks a major step in compliance with President Trump’s demands that the country halt the flow of illegal immigration, primarily from Central America, in order to avoid 5% tariffs which are set to begin on Monday. According to the report, and INM officials told Reuters that migrants were being asked to show papers to show their status in Mexico.

The operation in Chiapas coincided with a meeting of Mexican and U.S. officials at the White House on Wednesday to thrash out a deal that would avoid blanket tariffs on Mexico threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump last week. –Reuters

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Immigration discussions at the White House with representatives of Mexico have ended for the day. Progress is being made, but not nearly enough! Border arrests for May are at 133,000 because of Mexico & the Democrats in Congress refusing to budge on immigration reform. Further…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….talks with Mexico will resume tomorrow with the understanding that, if no agreement is reached, Tariffs at the 5% level will begin on Monday, with monthly increases as per schedule. The higher the Tariffs go, the higher the number of companies that will move back to the USA!

That many sailors and military police, yes, it’s new” – said Salva Cruz, a coordinator with Fray Matias de Cordova located in the southern border town of Metapa in the state of Chiapas, where most of the Central Americans have been crossing into Mexico.

Migration officials detained 350 to 400 people, the official said, noting that federal police and agents from the National Guard were present. Mexico’s government recently created a militarized police force called the National Guard made up of soldiers and federal police.

Mexico’s National Migration Institute (INM) said in a statement that a group of about 300 people entered Mexico by a border bridge Wednesday morning, and another 120 people joined the group as they walked to the city of Tapachula.

The migrants later agreed to be taken by bus to a migration office to be processed, the INM said. –Reuters

In May, US border patrol officers arrested over 132,000 people crossing into the country from Mexico, which is 1/3 more than in April, and the highest monthly figure since 2006 in what US officials have repeatedly said are “crisis” levels.

Meanwhile, Mexico is also cracking down on groups which help to facilitate illegal migration.

On Wednesday afternoon in Mexico City, police detained Irineo Mujica, director of the U.S.-Mexico migrant aid group Pueblo Sin Fronteras, and Cristobal Sanchez, a migrant rights activist, according to Alex Mensing, a coordinator with the group.

Pueblo Sin Fronteras has for several years guided annual caravans through Mexico, seeking to protect migrants and to advocate for their rights along a 2,000-mile trail ridden with criminals and corrupt officials who prey on lone travelers through kidnapping, extortion and other forms of assault. –Reuters

After Wednesday’s talks failed to result in headway, Fitch downgraded Mexico’s credit from BBB+ to BBB, while Moody’s lowered Mexico’s outlook from stable to negative.

 

end

The USA and Mexico in last ditch efforts in an attempt to avoid tariffs

(courtesy zerohedge)

US, Mexico In Last Ditch Attempt To Avoid Tariffs

Time is running out before Washington is set to impose new levies of 5% on all Mexican goods entering the US, and with talks set to resume on Thursday, both sides are on tenterhooks.

Trump, who is in Europe on Thursday commemorating the lives lost during D-Day, said that “not nearly enough” progress has been made during talks between Marcelo Ebrada and a top US trade official. In fact, it’s unclear how much progress can be made on any deal before Trump returns from his trip abroad.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Immigration discussions at the White House with representatives of Mexico have ended for the day. Progress is being made, but not nearly enough! Border arrests for May are at 133,000 because of Mexico & the Democrats in Congress refusing to budge on immigration reform. Further…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….talks with Mexico will resume tomorrow with the understanding that, if no agreement is reached, Tariffs at the 5% level will begin on Monday, with monthly increases as per schedule. The higher the Tariffs go, the higher the number of companies that will move back to the USA!

The peso weakened further as Moody’s Investors Service on Wednesday cut Mexico’s outlook to negative from stable, and then Fitch lowered the nation’s sovereign rating to BBB from BBB+.

Still, Ebrard, said he was confident the two sides could reach a deal before the June 10 tariff deadline. Ebrard said he had a productive meeting with other US officials, including Mike Pompeo and Mike.

“We are optimistic because we had a good meeting with respectful positions from both parts,” Ebrard said during a press conference at the Mexican Embassy in Washington. “We had an opportunity to explain our point of view.”

Ultimately, Trump has said he also believes Mexico wants to make a deal, but what they have proposed so far hasn’t been sufficient.

The biggest assurance that the US is seeking, according to Peter Navarro, a White House advisor on trade, is an assurance that Mexico will hold asylum seekers on its side of the border while they await heir asylum hearings. This ‘remain in Mexico.’

The most important thing is for Mexico to take the asylum seekers. The number of apprehensions and people denied entry along the U.S.-Mexico border has been rising steadily. More than 144,000 people were apprehended after illegally crossing the southern border in May – the most in a single month this year.

There’s another risk to the new trade war with Mexico: It risks upending the ‘Nafta 2.0’ free trade agreement that was one of the administration’s biggest plicy victories.

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has maintained a consistently conciliatory tone, refusing to speculate about what Mexico might do to respond to the tariffs if Trump follows through next week – something Trump described as a virtual certainty during a press conference with Theresa May.

end

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

INDIA

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1256 UP .0028 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.25 DOWN 0.023 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2702   UP   0.0014  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3388 UP .0034 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 28 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1256 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 33.63 POINTS OR 1.17% 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 69.80 POINTS OR 0.26% 

 

 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.35%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 69.8 POINTS OR 0.26%

 

 

 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 33.63 POINTS OR 1.17% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.35% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 2.06  POINTS OR 0.1%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1336.50

silver:$14.93

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.10% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.59 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 97.13 DOWN 22 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.67%  DOWN 5 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.12%  DOWN 2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.61% DOWN 6   IN basis point yield from YESTERDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.49 DOWN 3  POINTS in basis point yield from YESTERDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 188 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS –.24%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.73% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1288  UP   .0059 or 59 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.16 DOWN .160 OR YEN UP 16  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2705 UP .0017 POUND UP 17  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 44 basis points to 1.3379

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9096    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9260  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.7857 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.12%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.09 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.59 UP 0 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.92 DOWN 40  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 39.63  0.59%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 27.67 POINTS OR 0.23%

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 13.61 POINTS 0.26%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 18.700 POINTS or 0.20%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP22.08 POINTS OR 0.11%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 51.49 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 60.90 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.12  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.22 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 22 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.24 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  53.05//

 

 

BRENT :  62.20

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.13…   VERY DEADLY// AND INDICATIVE OF A HUGE RECESSION COMING UPON US//AND BOND MARKET DID NOT BUY THE DOW RISE!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.62..VERY DEADLY/ AND INDICATIVE OF A HUGE RECESSION COMING UPON US://BOND MARKET DID NOT BUY THE DOW/NASDAQ RISE

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1275 ( UP 46   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108,51 UP .182 (YEN DOWN 18 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.01 DOWN 30 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2693 UP 6  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.7755

 

 

the Russian rouble 65.09   UP 0.24 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 24 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3367 UP 56 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.9096  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9265 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.24%

 

The Dow closed  UP 181.09 POINTS OR 0.71%

 

NASDAQ closed up 40.08 POINTS OR 0.53%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.97 CLOSED DOWN 0.12

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.471%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.479

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY//

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Investors Buy Defensive Stocks At 2019 Record Pace

The key to trading this market: “empty your mind”…

empty your mind”…

China continues to catch down to US and European stocks’ liquidity-fueled pumpathon this year…

China continues to catch down to US and European stocks’ liquidity-fueled pumpathon this year…

Chinese markets slipped lower overnight, once again led by the tech-heavy indices…

Shanghai Composite broke key support…

And the small-cap, tech-heavy ChiNext has entered a bear market…

European banks fell on disappointing TLTRO and talks of rate-cuts from ECB…

Dragging European markets broadly lower.

 

US markets were mixed early on with the overnight weakness (Mexico and China) ignored and bid into the green before the cash open. Small Caps and Trannies (most exposed to short-squeeze) were red from the start but the rest of the majors trod water holding modest gains (despite more Mexican tariff headlines)…

This is The Dow’s first 4-day win streak since March, the best week for stocks since November, and the best start to June since the year 2000!

4th day in row that stocks suddenly became cheap in the last hour of trading…

Dow futures are up a stunning 1200 points from Sunday night’s lows…

 

Defensive stocks are up 4 days in a row – notably outperforming cyclicals in this ramp…

 

This is the biggest 4-day surge in defensives since Dec 31st

 

“Most Shorted” stocks leaked lower for the second day (explaining Small Caps and Trannies underperformance)…

 

Bonds were very mixed today with the action being the exact opposite of yesterday – long-end outperforming notably…

NOTE – yields spiked on the tariff delay headlines but with no follow through

And Bond vol is exploding…

 

The dollar index fell on the day, erasing yesterday’s gains…

 

Euro rallied on Draghi’s not-dovish-enough disappointment…

 

 

The peso spiked on headlines about delaying the tariffs (but slid back on reports expecting tariffs to hit)

NOTE – stocks did not retrace like peso.

 

Cryptos were mixed today with Ripple up and Bitcoin Cash lower, but ugly on the week…

 

Oil surged after the tariff delay headlines but PMs were higher as copper slipped (even with a lower dollar)…

 

Gold gained for the 7th day in a row…(longest win streak since Jan 2017)

 

Oil bounced on the day (after the tariff delay headlines) but some context is worthwhile…

 

 

Finally, after a string of dismal macro data, Bonds & Stocks remain drastically decoupled…

And, as Bloomberg reports, Retail traders are now the least bullish on the country’s equities since December, when the S&P 500 sank to a 20-month low, according to a weekly survey by the American Association of Individual Investors.

What will payrolls say?

 

end

 

i) Market trading/ last night

US-Mexico End Tariff Meeting Without Breakthough; Peso, US Futures Plunge

Update (1845ET): President Trump has tweeted that “not nearly enough progress is being made” in the talks with Mexico, which will resume tomorrow:

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Immigration discussions at the White House with representatives of Mexico have ended for the day. Progress is being made, but not nearly enough! Border arrests for May are at 133,000 because of Mexico & the Democrats in Congress refusing to budge on immigration reform. Further…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….talks with Mexico will resume tomorrow with the understanding that, if no agreement is reached, Tariffs at the 5% level will begin on Monday, with monthly increases as per schedule. The higher the Tariffs go, the higher the number of companies that will move back to the USA!

The market rebounded on this news…

Mexico’s foreign minister Ebrard told reporters as he left the meeting that it was cordial.

*  *  *

Update (1815ET): Trump administration officials have now confirmed that President Mike Pence met for two hours with Mexican foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard at the White House, and the meeting ended without reaching a resolution.

Bloomberg reminds readers that Pence has previously failed to thread the needle when acting as the president’s surrogate in important negotiations. The vice president led talks with congressional Democrats earlier this year to end a government shutdown, only for Trump to tweet later that there was “not much headway made.” The government remained shuttered until Trump relented on his demand that Congress provide more money to build a border wall.

Additional news reports suggested that the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, will meet Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard to discuss the way forward.

*  *  *

In an oddly-timed double-whammy, both Fitch and Moody’s have taken a negative ax to Mexico’s credit rating as the country’s officials are in Washington DC negotiating with the Trump administration over immigration and tariffs.

Moody’s Investors Service lowered Mexico’s outlook to negative from stable, and minutes later Fitch downgraded the country to BBB (from BBB+).

Then just minutes after that, NBC News reports,  citing a senior administration official, that U.S. and Mexico trade officials fail to reach a deal on tariffs, immigration.

As a reminder, Trump’s threatened penalties are set to begin Monday if Mexico doesn’t take unspecified actions to stem the flow of migrants and illegal drugs to the US.

The result is clear – the peso is plunging…

And US futures just opened notably lower…

*  *  *

Fitch explains why it downgraded Mexico.

The downgrade of Mexico’s IDRs reflects a combination of the increased risk to the sovereign’s public finances from Pemex’s deteriorating credit profile together with ongoing weakness in the macroeconomic outlook, which is exacerbated by external threats from trade tensions, some domestic policy uncertainty and ongoing fiscal constraints.

The impact of the contingent liability represented by Pemex weighs increasingly heavily on the sovereign credit profile, as evidenced by Fitch’s two-notch downgrade of Pemex to ‘BBB-‘ from ‘BBB+’ in January 2019 and the latter’s stand-alone credit profile of ‘CCC’. Spreads on Pemex’s debt over sovereign debt rose materially in 1Q19, leading the government to step up support. The fiscal cost of that support to date represents 0.2% of GDP to the budget in capital injections and lower effective taxes, but in Fitch’s view, are not sufficient to provide a long-term solution or prevent continued deterioration in Pemex’s credit profile.

Pemex’s tax bill (oil accounted for 2.3% of GDP in federal government revenue in 2018) exceeds its FCF, preventing it from investing sufficiently to maintain production and reserves. Fitch expects oil output to contract by 5% in 2019 and 2020. The company’s debts, which are largely external, reached USD106.7 billion (8.7% of GDP) in 2018 and are not included in the general government debt metric used by Fitch in its sovereign rating model. However, as our base case expectation is that ongoing sovereign support will be extended to Pemex over the medium term through a combination of a lower tax burden and/or further capital injections, our assessment of the sovereign’s public finances is weaker than indicated by the headline gross general government debt to GDP ratio of 42% at YE 2018.

Growth continues to underperform, and downside risks are magnified by threats by U.S. President Trump to impose tariffs on Mexico from June 10 (starting at 5% and rising by a further 5% per month up to a potential 25%) to compel it to stop the flow of migrants across its territory into the U.S., amid a pattern of trade uncertainty. Mexico’s five-year GDP growth averages 2.6%, below the ‘BBB’ median of 3.6%. Excluding the drag from oil production narrows the gap to the median by around half (i.e. 0.5pp). Although full-year GDP growth reached 2% in 2018, the pace of growth decelerated during the year and the economy only narrowly avoided recession, as growth was flat in 4Q18 before contracting 0.2% qoq (1.25% yoy) in 1Q19.

Mexico’s growth continues to lag that of the more developed U.S. economy, to which it is closely linked. Fitch expects growth to accelerate from 2Q but despite this it will reach only 1% in 2019; this would be consistent with a pattern of slower growth in the first year of a new administration. Lower inflation and higher wages (stemming from rises in the minimum wage) should support consumption, but the energy sector, characterized by a trend of falling production at Pemex, and weaker investment levels, reflecting lower business confidence, will continue to weigh on growth. The suspension of private sector bidding rounds that had been scheduled as part of the energy sector reforms is unlikely to help investment sentiment.

The 2019 budget presented in December, followed by the “pre-criterios” or 2020 fiscal policy guidelines released in April 2019, maintain a disciplined fiscal stance. Estimated oil revenue for 2019 has been revised down by 0.5% of GDP, and spending cuts were announced for an equivalent amount. Resources for the government’s priority programs were scaled back in the budget relative to pre-budget announcements, and other expenses have been cut. The government targets a primary surplus at the non-financial public sector level of 1% of GDP in 2019 (2018: 0.6% of GDP). The president has also stressed that public debt “will not grow in real terms.” General government debt ended 2018 at 42% of GDP, slightly above the current ‘BBB’ median of 37.5% of GDP, and Fitch expects it to stay around that level in 2019-2020. The general government deficit was 1.9% of GDP, lower than the non-financial public sector deficit of 2.3% of GDP.

In Fitch’s view, meeting fiscal targets will become more difficult heading into 2020 and could result in tighter policy that creates a further headwind to growth. The president has pledged not to raise taxes before 2021. In 2020, the fiscal rule demands a further tightening of the public sector primary balance to 1.3% of GDP. The government plans a change to the fiscal rules framework that would increase counter-cyclical space and, by reducing potential over-spending, the credibility of fiscal targets.

Government revenues should benefit from efforts to curb tax evasion and the scrapping of “universal compensation”, a provision which allowed corporate tax payers to write off tax due (most frequently corporate tax) against VAT or other tax claims. Meanwhile, spending on new social programs for pensioners and the youth population (which were allotted 0.6% of GDP in the 2019 budget) is likely to undershoot as these get off the ground. Data YTD show revenue and spending were below budget at the public sector level, the former largely owing to lower revenues from Pemex.

It remains to be seen whether the new administration, which has pledged action against crime and corruption, can reverse the trend of deteriorating governance, which began under its predecessors. The president has a stronger mandate than prior administrations, and his coalition has a majority in the lower House of Congress, and close to a majority in the Senate, giving him the ability to effect change. The average of the six World Bank governance indicators used by Fitch is weighing on Mexico’s score in Fitch’s Sovereign Rating Model and is currently the lowest in the ‘BBB’ category. Progress in combatting fuel theft, which had become a major problem for Pemex, is a positive achievement. The government has created a National Guard to fight crime and is encouraging the judiciary to pursue corruption cases.

Mexico’s ratings are supported by the country’s diversified economic structure and a track record of disciplined economic policies that has anchored macroeconomic stability and contained imbalances. While some of the Lopez Obrador administration’s microeconomic policy decisions have proved contentious, macro policy choices have been orthodox to date. These strengths counterbalance Mexico’s rating constraints, which include economic growth below the ‘BBB’ median, structural weaknesses in its public finances (a low revenue base compared with peers), shallow credit penetration, and governance scores among the lowest in the ‘BBB’ category.

*  *  *

Moody’s explains why it shifted Mexico to a negative outlook.

Moody’s decision to change the outlook to negative on Mexico’s A3 ratings reflects the rating agency’s concern that the policy framework is weakening in two key respects, with potential negative implications for growth and debt.

First, unpredictable policymaking is undermining investor confidence and medium-term economic prospects.

Second, lower growth, together with changes to energy policy and the role of PEMEX, introduce risks to Mexico’s medium-term fiscal outlook, notwithstanding the government’s near-term commitment to prudent fiscal policy.

The A3 rating affirmation balances the country’s large and diversified economy, its high fiscal strength and low susceptibility to event risk, against ongoing challenges related to weak growth rates, weaker-than-peers institutional strength and a large informal sector.

end

MARKET TRADING/EARLY THIS MORNING

Trump signals more Chinese tariffs

(zerohedge)

Stocks Tumble Into Red As Trump Signals More China Tariffs

Nasdaq futures have tumbled back into the red following remarks from President Trump that he is considering extending tariffs to China on the remaining $300 billion of goods.

Trump had already noted this during the night but this reiteration, during a post-D-Day celebration press conference with Macron sparked selling in stocks…

Trump said he would make the decision on further China tariffs in the next two weeks as G20 meetings loom.

end
Early afternoon trading

Stocks Slide As Trump Aide Confirms “Moving Toward Path” Towards Mexico Tariffs

US equity markets are giving up gains (or extending losses) after White House Deputy Comms Director Mercedes Schlapp said that they were moving toward the path of imposing tariffs on Mexico because they were not offering enough to avert them.

Small Caps and Trannies were already red and the rest of the majors are leaking lower now…

Also being reported is that negotiations with US and Mexico will continue in the afternoon without high officials, and House Ways and Means Committee chair Neal would introduce a resolution of disapproval if Trump declares tariffs as a national emergency.

Separately, from the the Mexican side, there’s areport that high-ranking U.S. officials won’t be attending this afternoon’s meeting.

end

LATE AFTERNOON TRADING

Stocks, Peso Spike On Report US Considers Delaying Mexican Tariffs

Did Trump just fold (again)?

The peso and US stocks spiked on a Bloomberg headline stating that:

  • U.S. WEIGHS DELAYING MEXICO TARIFFS AS TIME FOR DEAL RUNS SHORT

But, shortly after that, another headline hit:

  • *U.S. TARIFFS ON MEXICO GOING INTO EFFECT MONDAY STILL POSSIBLE

Confirming that a delay is not an actual end to the threat of tariffs.

Markets retraced a little…

And stocks…

 

END

 

ii)Market data/

USA exports and imports plunge.  Thus the trade deficit shrinks but GDP is faltering

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Exports To China Plunge Near 9 Year Low As US Trade Deficit Shrinks

The US trade deficit shrank very modestly in April (up from a revised -$51.9bn to -$50.8bn), practically in line with expectations.

Under the hood, exports of goods and services decreased $4.6 billion, or 2.2 percent, in April to $206.8 billion.

  • Exports of goods decreased $4.4 billion
  • Exports of services decreased $0.2 billion.

The decrease in exports of goods mostly reflected decreases in capital goods ($2.7 billion), in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.8 billion), and in consumer goods ($0.6 billion).

The decrease in exports of services mostly reflected  decreases in travel (for all purposes including education) ($0.1 billion) and in maintenance and repair services ($0.1 billion).

Imports of goods and services decreased $5.7 billion, or 2.2 percent, in April to $257.6 billion.

  • Imports of goods decreased $5.4 billion
  • Imports  of services decreased $0.3 billion.

The decrease in imports of goods mostly reflected decreases in capital goods ($1.7 billion), in consumer goods ($1.1 billion), in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.0 billion), in other goods ($0.8 billion), and in industrial supplies and materials ($0.6 billion).

The decrease in imports of services mostly reflected a decrease in transport ($0.3 billion).

Disappointingly for Trump, the deficit with China increased in April.

As US exports to China plunge back near 9 year lows.

However, the deficit with the European Union decreased $1.0  billion to $15.1 billion in April, and the deficit with Canada decreased $0.9 billion to $1.8 billion in April.

end

heavy duty truck orders collapse and we are now at 3 yr lows and a huge 70% in the May reading

(courtesy zerohedge)

Heavy Duty Truck Orders Collapse To Worst Numbers Since July 2016, Down 70% In May

A bloated backlog of Class 8 orders as a result of a euphoric mid-2018 continues to weigh on heavy duty truck orders in 2019.

Preliminary North America Class 8 net order data from ACT Research shows that the industry booked just 10,800 units in May, down 27% sequentially, but also lower by an astonishing 70% year-over-year. YTD orders are down 64% compared to the first five months of 2018.

This chart shows the stunning difference between 2018 orders (black bars) and 2019 orders (red bars).

Class 8 trucks, which are made by Daimler (Freightliner, Western Star), Paccar (Peterbuilt, Kenworth), Navistar International, and Volvo Group (Mack Trucks, Volvo Trucks), are one of the more common heavy trucks on the road, used for transport, logistics and occasionally (some dump trucks) for industrial purposes. Typical 18 wheelers on the road are generally all Class 8 vehicles, and traditionally are seen as an accurate coincident indicator of trade and logistics trends in the economy.

In addition, a follow up note from JP Morgan noted that Class 5-7 (medium duty) net new orders were down 21% YoY and down 19% sequentially. For May, net orders were 19,300 units, down 21% YoY and down 19% MoM. Despite these trends, JP Morgan still expects 2019 production of ~278,000 units (up 2% YoY).

Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst said: “Fraying freight market and rate conditions along with a still-large Class 8 order backlog contributed to the worst NA Class 8 net order performance since July of 2016. May saw NA Class 8 orders fall below the 15,900 units averaged through the year’s first trimester, and year-to-date Class 8 net orders have contracted 64% compared to the first five months of 2018.”

Speaking about the medium duty market, Vieth commented: “While the US manufacturing/freight economy has been droopy since late 2018, the medium-duty market continues to benefit from the underlying strength in the consumer economy. In May, NA Classes 5-7 net orders were 19,300 units, down 21% year-over-year and 19% from April. One has to look back 22 months to find a weaker medium-duty order month on an actual basis or just 2 months when looking at the data on a seasonally adjusted basis.”

In mid-May, we pointed out the dire picture for shipping for the rest of 2019.

The Cass Freight Index report for the month ended April 2019 painted a dire picture for freight heading into the end of the second quarter. The report said that “continued decline” in the freight index remains a concern, pointing out that shipments have fallen 3.4% year over year while expenditures have risen 6.2%. Sequentially on a monthly basis, shipments are down 0.3% while expenditures ticked up 0.7%.

 

My goodness:  just take a look at Los Angeles:  the homeless population now jumps in LA County to almost 59,000

(courtesy zerohedge)

“It’s Hard To Be Optimistic” – Homeless Population Jumps In L.A. County To Nearly 59,000

A dramatic rise in homelessness has been reported in Los Angeles County — up 12% in 2018 to over 59,000 — is certainly an odd trend developing given “the greatest economy ever” and booming West Coast economies.

The epicenter of the homeless problem is in the city of Los Angeles, which saw a 16% jump to 36,300, the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority (LHSA) said.

The LHSA said it assisted 21,631 people in getting off the street into permanent housing last year, a rate that would end the homeless crisis in a matter of years but economic deterioration has simultaneously pushed new families out of their homes.

People who couldn’t find permanent housing ended up in homeless encampments across the city.

“People are being housed out of homelessness and falling into homelessness on a continuous basis,” said Peter Lynn, the authority’s executive director.

Nearly 25% of those counted became homeless for the first time last year, and more than 50% of them mentioned financial stress was the culprit behind their homelessness, LHSA said.

Rising rents, a housing affordability crisis, largest ever wealth gap between rich and poor, deteriorating jobs market, and an economy cycling into a slowdown are some of the complex factors that have recently shifted tens of thousands of people onto the streets of Los Angeles.

“This data is stunning from the perspective that we had hoped that things would be trending differently, but we will not ignore our realities,” Los Angeles County Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas told CNN.

“No one can ignore the income insecurity, the financial stress that is being experienced throughout the population. … This is a state that is the wealthiest in the nation, and, at the same time, it is the most impoverished.”

Almost 75% of the homeless people counted lived outdoors, stoking fears of an expanding public health crisis that will certainly explode into the early 2020s.

Skid Row, an area of Downtown Los Angeles, is “ground zero” for the homeless crisis, where homeless encampments line the sidewalks. The smell of human waste permeates the air and violence is common, said Estela Lopez of the Downtown Industrial Business Improvement District.

Lopez said her group collects five to seven tons of garbage per day from the homeless.

County Supervisor Janice Hahn called the developing crisis “disheartening.”

“Even though our data shows we are housing more people than ever, it is hard to be optimistic when that progress is overwhelmed by the number of people falling into homelessness,” Hahn said.

Of those homeless people counted, 24% were millennials, and 7% were baby boomers.

Estimates show about 29% of the homeless counted were mentally ill or had substance abuse issues.

Two-thirds of the homeless on the streets of metro Los Angeles are male, less than one-third are female, and 2% had some other form of gender.

With an economic downturn nearing, Los Angeles County could see rates of homelessness dramatically increase into the early 2020s, overpowering local officials, and lead to a deepening of the public health crisis.

end
Mish Shedlock comments on the discrepancy on the two job reports and how the Bureau double or triple counts individuals.  If you have 3 part time jobs the Bureau records this as 3 jobs
(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mish talk)

Examining The Discrepancy Between Jobs And Employment

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

In the past year, the BLS says the number of jobs rose by 2.62 million. Employment rose by 1.429 million.

The discrepancy between the increase in jobs and the increase in employment is 1,191,000. On average, over the past year, that’s a discrepancy of 99,250 every month, in favor of jobs.

Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey

The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the headline jobs number, generally released the first Friday of every month. It is based on employer reporting.

The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures unemployment and many other factors.

Numbers in Perspective

  • In the household survey, if you work as little as 1 hour a week, even selling trinkets on eBay, you are considered employed.
  • If you don’t have a job and fail to look for one, you are not considered unemployed, rather, you drop out of the labor force. Searching want-ads or looking online for jobs does not count. You need to submit a resume or talk to a prospective employer or agency.
  • In the household survey, if you work three part-time jobs, 12 hours each, the BLS considers you a full-time employee.
  • In the payroll survey, three part-time jobs count as three jobs. The BLS attempts to factor this in, but they do not weed out duplicate Social Security numbers. The potential for double-counting jobs in the payroll survey is large.

These distortions and discrepancies artificially lower the unemployment rate, artificially boost full-time employment, and artificially increase the payroll jobs report every month.

Nonfarm Payrolls vs Employment

Over time, the numbers move in sync. There is no clear pattern around recessions. In many years the levels converge before a recession, but ahead of the great recession the numbers diverged.

Nonfarm Payrolls vs Employment Detail

In December of 2009 the difference between payrolls and employment was 8.21 million. This month, the difference is 5.56 million.

Since the lows in December of 2009, the BLS tells us employment rose by 18,632,000. The number of jobs rose by 21,291,000. That’s a difference of 2,659,000.

In the past year alone, the difference between jobs and employment is a whopping 1,191,000. That’s a discrepancy of 99,250 every month, in favor of jobs.

I strongly suggest double-counting of jobs by the BLS when people take extra part-time jobs or shift jobs.

For a closer look at today’s jobs report please see Jobs +263,000 vs. Employment -103,000: Unemployment Rate 3.6% Lowest Since 1969.

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

As outlined above:  Trump is threatening China with an additional 300 billion dollars worth of tariffs on their goods.

(courtesy zerohedge)

-END

WELL THAT ABOUT DOES IT FOR TONIGHT

I WILL SEE YOU FRIDAY NIGHT.

HARVEY

One comment

  1. Zev Bassin · · Reply

    When the EFP get issued and fly across the pond. Did the number of contracts on the comex fall by that much. I understand you say it can take a few days. I am trying to figure out where they get dis-counted on the account. These could be ghost contracts or off the books? More paper supplied than stated.
    When do we see the printed results of the EFP’s being honored.
    Does London have a similar deal and they are issuing the equivalent security like an EFP to another exchange, say Asia.
    Do EFP’s ever get settled?

    Like

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