JUNE 7/GOLD UP ANOTHER $3.50 AND IT HAS RISEN FOR 8 STRAIGHT DAYS/GOLD FINISHES AT $1341.90//SILVER UP 12 CENTS TO $15.04//OUR BANKER FRIENDS WILL NOW DEFEND $1350 GOLD AS IF THEIR LIFE DEPENDED ON IT//POOR JOBS REPORT FUELED TODAY’S RISE/PBOC GOVERNOR STATES THAT CHINA HAS ROOM TO LOWER RATES AND LOWER THE VALUE OF THE YUAN /LOOKS LIKE MUELLER IS IN A HEAP OF TROUBLE//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

 

 

GOLD: $1341.90  UP $3.50 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:  $15.04 UP 12 CENTS  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)//at its 200 day moving average

Closing access prices:

Gold : 1340.80

 

silver:  $15.02

 

 

 

 

YOUR DATA…

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING  2/9

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JUNE 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,337.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/06/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 06/10/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
323 H HSBC 6
661 C JP MORGAN 2
686 C INTL FCSTONE 6 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 3
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 9 9
MONTH TO DATE: 537

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT: 9 NOTICE(S) FOR 900 OZ (0.0279 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  537 NOTICES FOR 53700 OZ  (1.6702 TONNES)

 

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JUNE

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 308 for 1540,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE :  $ 7801 UP 172 

 

 

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 7949 UP 245

 

 

 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE A HUGE  SIZED 3557 CONTRACTS FROM 215,494 UP TO 219,051 DESPITE THE SMALL 9 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.( LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED FOR SILVER AND IT STOPPED FOR GOLD AS WELL. WE WILL WITNESS A RISE IN THE SPREADERS IN SILVER ONCE WE START TRADING IN JUNE… READY FOR THE FIRST DAY NOTICE JULY CONTRACT.) TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A VERY LARGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

 0 FOR MAY, 0 FOR JUNE, 2719 FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  2719 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 32719 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2719 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 13.60 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 9 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

1.565 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JUNE:

15,319 CONTRACTS (FOR 5 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 15,319 CONTRACTS) OR 76.595 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 3064 CONTRACTS OR 15.32 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JUNE:  76.595 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 11.09% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          965.31    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4     MILLION OZ/

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                          207.835 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                              182.87  MILLION OZ.

MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                                                136.55 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3557 DESPITE THE SMALL 9 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY LARGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2719 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS WILL RESUME THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES FOR SILVER ONCE THE JUNE CONTRACT COMMENCES IN EARNEST….

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED: 6276 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

i.e 2719 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 3557  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A  9 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.91 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!! 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.082 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 152% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil, OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 1.565 MILLION OZ//
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

.

WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING:  WE  PROBABLY HAD STRONG ACTIVITY OF  SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN SILVER TODAY//  

 

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCHED TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.” 

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A  STRONG SIZED 3271 CONTRACTS, TO 492,947 WITH THE GOOD $8.40 PRICE GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// YESTERDAY/THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS STOPPED AND THESE SPREADING FELLOWS HAVE ALREADY MORPHED INTO SILVER.   THE GAIN IN OI GOLD CONTRACTS IS REAL AND NOT PUMPED UP BY SPREADING.   

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7565 CONTRACTS:

APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS, AUGUST 2019: 7315 CONTRACTS, DEC>  250 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 496.051.  ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,836 CONTRACTS: 3271 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX  AND 7565 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 10,836 CONTRACTS OR 1,083,600 OZ OR 33.71 TONNES.  YESTERDAY WE HAD A GOOD GAIN OF $8.40 IN GOLD TRADING….AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE  HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 33.71  TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING COPIOUS SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER.

 

 

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 66,284 CONTRACTS OR 6,628,400 OR 206.17 TONNES (5 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 13,257 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 206.17 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 206.17/3550 x 100% TONNES =5.80% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     2484.08 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:       497.16 TONNES

APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                 456.10 TONNES

MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE:                    449.10 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3271 WITH THE PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK ON YESTERDAY($8.40)) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7565 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7565 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 13,940 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

7565 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 3271 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 33.71 TONNES). ..AND THIS GAIN OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE OF $8.40 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE  HAD ZERO PRESENCE OF SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN GOLD  ///TODAY/

 

 

 

we had:  9 notice(s) filed upon for 900 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY//

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

 

 

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY:

 

NO CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO SILVER INVENTORY  AT THE SILVER SLV

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.362 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

 

OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 3557 CONTRACTS from 215,494 UP TO 219,051 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER AND STOPPED THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS IN GOLD

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE: 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 0 FOR MAY, FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 2719 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2719 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 4199 CONTRACTS TO THE 2719 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 6276 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 31.38MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY,  27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL  18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY AND NOW 1.565 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE.

 

 

RESULT: A LARGE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE SMALL  9 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE SIZED 2719 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

 

 

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN HOLIDAY  //Hang Sang CLOSED HOLIDAY   /The Nikkei closed UP 110.67 POINTS OR 0.53%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .91%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9098 /Oil DOWN TO 52.49 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.38 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9098 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9478 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

 

 

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 China/Chinese affairs

i)China

Oh OH!! this is not what the USA wants to hear:  The POBC governor Yi has just stated that there is tremendous room to ease monetary policy. He indicates that he will lower rates and reserve ratios and that will drop the yuan to 7 to one.  That will push massive deflation on the world and basically push all interest rates to zero and negative

( zerohedge)

end

ii)CHINA/RUSSIA HUAWEI

China ‘s Huawei has nowhere to turn but to Russia as they both sign agreements to build the 5 G networks in Russia

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i) UK/

Mish Shedlock is putting his money on Boris Johnson and a no deal Brexit

(courtesy mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

 

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)TURKEY/CYPRUS/ISRAEL/GREECE

Gatestone provides an update to us on the incursion of Turkey onto Cyprus waters drilling for natural gas.  This is very worrisome as both Cyprus and Turkey are members of NATO.  The EU and the USA will sanction Turkey for its aggressions.  Turkey is deficient in energy and needs the natural gas that was discovered by Israel 5 to 6 years ago.  Israel will defend Cyprus and relations between Israel and Egypt have also improved.  Egypt has discovered a huge deposit in their neck of the woods. This is a powder keg ready to explode

(COURTESY GATESTONE/BULAT)

 

ii)TURKEY

 

The Turkish lira slides after the U

 

SA refused to train any more Turks learning the F 35 systems

( zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

Mexico/USA

Wall street sees no clear end game with respect to the Mexican tariffs.  Here is what various commentators are saying:

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

i)VENEZUELA/

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

a)Our good friends over at Agnico Eagle which has extensive mines in Mexico state that they will fly their gold to Canada to refine instead of the USA.   More lost business for the uSA

( Bloomberg/GATA)

b)It is now reported that it was sanctions against Venezuela which forced Deutsche bank and Citibank to foreclose on Venezuelan gold

( Reuters/GATA)

A must read…Ambrose Pritchard comments that deflation alert has been signalled in Europe.  The ECB waited too long to initiate its QE program years ago and it is now beginning to haunt them Inflation expectations are dropping like a stone but real costs are rising especially in Italy. With China set to lower its yuan to 7 one 1 expect massive deflation to circle the globe and drive interest rates to zero and negative and thus we will enter a full blown depression

(courtesy Ambrose Pritchard/GATA)

d)We are now approaching the huge $1350 resistance for gold  Gold has been stopped a few times at this level as the bankers must defend this level or their derivatives blow up. It looks like we blew past the 14.91- 15.00 dollar silver price and that too will put tremendous pressure on our derivative shorts in silver.

(courtesy John Rubino/DollarCollapse.com)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING//

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/

 

II)MARKET TRADING/EARLY THIS MORNING

A)FOMC
I guess we knew something was up when we witnessed a huge miss in the ADP numbers on Wednesday.  Now we witness a huge miss for the May jobs report at only 75,000 and that number is fudged badly
 zerohedge)

B)Despite the jobs report being fudged to a high degree, we will have some pretty bad indicators that something is wrong.  Today;s report shows full time jobs tumbling to its lowest level in one year

.(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)Market data

consumer credit continues t jump.  this time it was mostly the revolving credit or credit card debt that increased the most.  Non revolving or auto/student loans remained relatively soft.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

An extremely important commentary for Jeffrey Snider of Alhambra.  He too is one smart cookie.  He follows the Euro dollar futures which is a huge mega trillion market for interest rate bets.  What the Euro dollar futures are telling us is that rates are suddenly heading southbound and we will experience NIRP and/or ZIRP.   We are heading for a huge depression.

 

a must read…

( Jeffrey Snider)

SWAMP STORIES

(zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
end
LET US BEGIN:

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 3271 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 492,947 WITH THE  RISE OF $8.40 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY // COMEX TRADING)

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 7565 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

0 FOR JUNE ’19: 0 CONTRACTS , AUG; 7315 CONTRACTS: DEC: 250   AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7565 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 10,836 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7565 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG  SIZED 3271 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ::  10,836 CONTRACTS OR 1,083,600 OZ OR 33.71 TONNES.

 

We are now in the  active contract month of JUNE and here the open interest stands at 1282 CONTRACTS as we lost 55 contracts.  We had  28 notices filed yesterday so we lost 27 contracts or 2700 oz of gold that will not  stand for delivery as there appears to be no gold at the comex and thus they morphed into London based forwards (as they are gave up on their luck on finding the fast vanishing supplies of physical gold over here) as well as accepting a fiat bonus for their effort.  The next contract month is the non active month of July and here the OI fell by 56 contracts down to 1260 contracts.  The next big active month for deliverable gold is August and here the OI rose by 2085 contracts up to 370,500.

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 9 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR  900 OZ. (0.0279 TONNES)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.4

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 3557 CONTRACTS FROM 215,494 UP TO 219,051 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S STRONG  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A SMALL  9 CENT RISE IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.  HERE WE HAVE 5 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 45 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 46 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 1 CONTRACT OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX.  NOTICE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOLD AND SILVER.  WE STILL HAVE SOME PHYSICAL SILVER IN THE PITS AT THE COMEX AND THUS THE COMMERCIALS WILL GO AFTER THAT SUPPLY TO PUT OUT FIRES ELSEWHERE.  (WITH GOLD, THERE IS NO SUPPLY LEFT. OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE IN DEEP TROUBLE WITH RESPECT TO GOLD.)

THE NEXT MONTH AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY.  HERE THE OI ROSE BY 394 CONTRACTS UP TO 151,235.  WE GAINED 296 CONTRACTS OF OI FOR AUGUST TO STAND AT 313. THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 1940 CONTRACTS UP TO 31,912 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for nil OZ for the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 314,310  CONTRACTS 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  271,299  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  JUNE/GOLD

June 7/2019

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
32,214.300
oz
1002
kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

nil oz

hsbc

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
9 notice(s)
 900 OZ
(0.0279 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1273 contracts
(127,300 oz)
3.9595 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
537 notices
52,800 OZ
1.670 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

STILL: NO GOLD ENTERS THE GOLD COMEX

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

ii) Into everybody else: nil  oz

 

 

 

total gold deposits: nil  oz

 

 very little gold arrives from outside/ nothing arrived   today

we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:

 

 

Gold withdrawals;

i)  We had 1 withdrawal: out of JPMorgan: 32,214.300 oz  (1002 kilobars)

 

 

 

.

total gold withdrawals; 32,214.300   oz

 

 

i) we had 0 adjustment today

FOR THE JUNE 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 9 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (537) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JUNE. (1282 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (9 x 100 oz per contract) equals 181,000 OZ OR 5.629 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of MAY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (537 x 100 oz)  + (1282)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (9 x 100 oz )which equals 181,000 oz standing OR 5.629 TONNES in this  active delivery month of JUNE.

We LOST 27 contracts or an additional 2700 oz will NOT  stand as these guys  morphed into London based forwards as they just could not find any  real, physical gold at the comex in New York.

 

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO  GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 7.3210 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 5.629 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  235,383.253 oz or  7.32104 tonnes (we had a huge adjustment yesterday of gold leaving the customer and entering the dealer)
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   7,675,233.390 oz 237.72 tonnes

 

 

 

OF OPEN INTERESTS FOR THE UPCOMING JUNE 2019 CONTRACT VS JUNE 2018

 

 

 

 

 

FOR THE INITIAL JUNE 2018 CONTRACT WE HAD A HUGE 32.152 TONNES STAND. (VS 5.629 TONNES TODAY/JUNE 2019)

HOWEVER BY MONTH’S END ONLY 21.56 TONNES EVENTUALLY STOOD AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.  AS YOU CAN SEE, THE CROOKS ARE FOLLOWING THE SAME FORMAT OF MORPHING VS LAST YEAR AS ONLY GOLD VAPOUR SEEMS TO BE PHYSICALLY PRESENT AT THE COMEX AND LONGS MUST TRY THEIR LUCK IN LONDON.

IN THE LAST 32 MONTHS 118 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX 
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH OF June

INITIAL  standings/SILVER

IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO GOLD, HUGE ACTIVITY IN SILVER TODAY.
june 7 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 678,572.666 oz
CNT
Brinks
Scotia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
99,475.679 oz
loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
5 contracts
25,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 308 contracts

1,540,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

**

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: NIL  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:  nil

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 149.469 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.80% of all official comex silver. (149 million/307 milli

i)into Loomis: 99,475.679 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  99,475.679  oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) out of brinks:  3969.910 0z

 

ii) out of Scotia: 44,139.480 oz

iii)  out of CNT 630,463.270 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total 678,572.666  oz

 

we had 0 adjustment :

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  87.819 million

total dealer + customer silver:  302.979 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JUNE 2019. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR  nil oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 308 x 5,000 oz = 1,310,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE. (5) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JUNE/2019 contract month: 308(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY( 5) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 1,565,000 oz of silver standing for the JN contract month.

WE GAINED 1 CONTRACT OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ WILL STAND AS THESE GUYS REFUSE TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS. THERE ARE PHYSICAL SUPPLIES OF SILVER AT THE COMEX AND THUS WE WITNESS  QUEUE JUMPING IN FULL FORCE. IN GOLD THERE IS NO PHYSICAL OUNCES PRESENT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for nil OZfor the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME:  115,115 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 92,973 CONTRACTS..(we no doubt had considerable spreading activity as they are now starting to accumulate in silver)

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 92,973 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 464 million  OZ 66/3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

 

end

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

 

 

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -2.96% June 7/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.78% to NAV (june 7/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.9Y6%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.19 TRADING 12.70/DISCOUNT 3.72

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

june 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

jUNE 6/WITH GOLD UP  $8.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $6.00 TODAY/STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES

JUNE 4/WITH GOLD UP 0.85 TODAY: A MONSTROUS PAPER GAIN OF 16.44 TONNES/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.65 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD UP $17.50 TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE, A DEPOSIT OF 2.35 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//

MAY 31/WITH GOLD UP $17.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES

MAY 30: WI6H GOLD UP $6.40 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES

MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES

MAY 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 TODAY: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES

MAY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.81 TONNES

MAY 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY: A STRANGE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FORM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738,81 TONNES

MAY 22//WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: WE HAD A GOOD 1.52 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 739.69 TONNES

 

MAY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.65 TODAY: A SURPRISE 2.00 TONNES WERE ADDED  TO THE GLD GOLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.17 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 A HUGE 2.96 TONNE DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.17 TONNES

MAY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.50: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.23 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 15/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

MAY 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45 TODAY: STRANGE!! THE CROOKS DECIDED TO DEPOSIT A HUGE 3.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES

MAY 13/ WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $15.40 TODAY: STRANGE! A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.41 TONNES OF GOLD (TO TAME GOLD’S RISE TODAY)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES

MAY 10 WITH GOLD UP $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 9//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 7/ WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $9.35 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.52

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JUNE 7/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 757.59 tonnes

*IN LAST 607 TRADING DAYS: 176.38 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 507 TRADING DAYS: A NET 10.54 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

june 7/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 12 CENTS, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

jUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 9 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZE DEPOSIT OF 630,087 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.396 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.434 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 4/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//

MAY 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 422,000 OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ/

May 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ///

MAY 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ/

MAY 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 22/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 311.616 MILLION OZ

MAY 21: WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ

MAY 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.185 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY VAULTS:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ//

MAY 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ//

MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV  INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.031 MILLION OZ//  THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ.

MAY 14/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

MAY 13//WITH SILVE5 DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ…

MAY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///

MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///

MAY 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 891,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/

MAY 3//WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 843,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/TOTAL INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.691 MILLION OZ//

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 13 CENTS, MIRACUOUSLY THE AUTHORITIES ADD 2.869 MILLION OZ OF SILVER BACK INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.848 MILLION OZ//

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ////

 

JUNE 7/2019:

 

Inventory 315.652 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.01/ and libor 6 month duration 2.38

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .37

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.05%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.35

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.30

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

 

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Global Coll

 

 

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

Our good friends over at Agnico Eagle which has extensive mines in Mexico state that they will fly their gold to Canada to refine instead of the USA.   More lost business for the uSA

(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

Agnico-Eagle may fly gold from Mexico to avoid Trump’s tariffs

 Section: 

By Danielle Bochove
Bloomberg News
Thursday, June 6, 2019

If push comes to shove, one of the world’s largest gold miners is prepared to do an end run around the U.S. should President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs on Mexican goods bite.

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. currently produces about 300,000 ounces of gold in Mexico that it refines in the U.S., all of which would likely be subject to the proposed tariffs, Chief Executive Officer Sean Boyd said Wednesday. But he already knows how he’d respond to potential levies.

… 

It’s not expensive to fly a bar of gold,” Boyd said in an interview at Bloomberg’s Toronto bureau. “We would just refine it somewhere else. We could easily bring it to Canada.”

Meanwhile, the Toronto-based company, Canada’s second-largest gold miner, is reaping some benefits from U.S. isolationism. Global trade jitters have strengthened the U.S. dollar at the expense of the Mexican and Canadian currencies, significantly reducing Agnico’s costs, he said.

In the hour-long interview, Boyd discussed a wide range of issues, from consolidation in the gold industry to the succession plan for a company he has helmed for more than 20 years. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-06/miner-plans-on-flying…

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

end

It is now reported that it was sanctions against Venezuela which forced Deutsche bank and Citibank to foreclose on Venezuelan gold

(courtesy Reuters/GATA)

Sanctions caused Deutsche Bank, Citibank to foreclose on Venezuelan gold, Reuters says

 Section: 

Venezuela Loses $1.4 Billion of Gold to Banks for Guarantees, Sources Tell Reuters

By Corina Pons and Mayela Armas
Reuters
Thursday, June 6, 2019

CARACAS, Venezuela — Citibank and Deutsche Bank have taken control of around $1.4 billion of Venezuelan government gold, which they received as guarantees for loans, as a result of U.S. sanctions on the Venezuelan Central Bank, according to five sources.

Between 2014 and 2016 the central bank used a portion of its foreign gold reserves to guarantee financial operations with banks to boost liquidity, with the intention of repaying the loans to avoid losing the gold.

… 

Five sources with knowledge of the deals said the BCV had agreed with Citibank and Deutsche Bank to buy back the gold in 2020 and 2021, but since the U.S. government imposed sanctions on the central bank in April, the banks had invoked a condition of the contracts to retain ownership of the bars.

Both banks had resolved that an “event of default” had occurred due to the sanctions, as established in agreements underpinning the gold swap deals, the sources said.

Citibank took control of gold for around $400 million BCV was supposed to repay in 2020. For a separate guarantee Deutsch Bank took $1 billion, the sources said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-gold/venezuela-loses-1-4-bi…

* * *

end

A must read…Ambrose Pritchard comments that deflation alert has been signalled in Europe.  The ECB waited too long to initiate its QE program years ago and it is now beginning to haunt them Inflation expectations are dropping like a stone but real costs are rising especially in Italy. With China set to lower its yuan to 7 one 1 expect massive deflation to circle the globe and drive interest rates to zero and negative and thus we will enter a full blown depression

(courtesy Ambrose Pritchard)

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Deflation alert in Europe as markets lose faith in ‘powerless’ ECB

 Section: 

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Thursday, June 6, 2019

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/06/06/deflation-alert-europe-m…

Futures markets in the eurozone are flashing the most serious deflation warning since the creation of the single currency, dismissing stimulus measures and dovish rhetoric from the European Central Bank as thin gruel in the face of mounting recession risks.

A closely watched gauge of inflation expectations — 5-year/5-year forward swap contracts — crashed to a record low of 1.23 percent today despite pledges from the ECB that it would hold interest rates at deeply negative levels far into 2020, and despite hints of more quantitative easing to head off a Japanese-style trap.

… 

ECB president Mario Draghi said the bank is “determined to act in case of adverse contingencies” and will use all instruments in the toolbox — code for emergency stimulus if the slump in world trade deepens and a global economic downturn takes root.

Analysts say the policy shift comes too late, and is too tentative, to assuage worried investors. Pricing in futures contracts shows that markets do not believe the ECB will come close to meeting its 2pc inflation target over the next decade. This is an emphatic verdict of no confidence in the monetary management of the institution, but it also has dangerous macroeconomic consequences.

Peter Schaffrik at RBC said markets increasingly fear that the ECB has “fallen behind the curve” as prices tumble across the commodity nexus and returns on German government bonds hit historic lows. This is allowing a corrosive dynamic to take hold.

He said corporate bond markets are caught in a double squeeze. Risks spreads are rising and real borrowing costs are also jumping as implicit inflation spiral downwards. The combined effect has already caused a 45-basis point rise in credit costs for low-to-mid grade companies since early May.

It is a hazardous feedback loop: the more inflation expectations fall, the more real yields rise. “The central bank loses its ability to counteract the weakness,” Mr Schaffrik said.

The ECB’s package of measures includes a fresh round of cheap loans to banks (TLTROs) at rates as low as minus 0.3 percent, providing badly needed liquidity to prop up broken banking systems in Italy and other parts of the eurozone. Even so, lenders in the periphery of the eurozone will in effect be rationed to about E30 billion.

Analysts said the latest moves are too little to shore up the eurozone defences against a global slowdown. “If the economy continues to stagnate, the ECB will be forced to intervene. Turning the QE taps back on by the end of the year is an increasingly probable scenario,” said Nancy Curtin of Close Brothers.

A short-lived rally on European stock markets faded quickly as investors sensed that Mr Draghi was trying to send a dovish message with cheap talk rather than meaningful action. He is almost certainly constrained from acting by northern European hawks on the governing council.

The days are long gone when the ECB maestro can restore animal spirits with a catchy phrase. The famous bazooka has become a popgun.

Mr Draghi said the likelihood of deflation in the eurozone was “zero” but also revealed that some council members had for the first time spoken of fresh asset purchases at their policy meeting this week. This is a remarkable development coming so soon after the ECB shut down the programme in December declaring mission accomplished.

Ashoka Mody, a former bailout chief in Europe for the International Monetary Fund, argued that the ECB has run out of usable policy ammunition. “There is nothing that the ECB can do. It is completely powerless. It has entered a zone of ‘involution’ and is scrounging about trying to create a sense of action, but none of this has any effect,” he said.

Only fiscal stimulus a l’outrance now has the potency to fight an economic downturn, but this is rendered almost impossible by the eurozone’s Stability Pact and Fiscal Compact, and the lack of a shared budget with joint debt issuance.

Mody, now at Princeton University, said inflation expectations had become irreversibly “de-anchored.” This is playing havoc with real interest rates and debt sustainability. “The consequences are horrible, not just for Italy but also for France,” he said.

Chronic “lowflation” in the South is further fragmenting the eurozone. Italy’s real borrowing costs are rising and have reached 2 percent even as the economy slides back into recession. This level amounts to slow death for a high-debt country with no growth. The debt-to-GDP ratio is spiraling upwards.

By contrast, Germany’s real rate is minus 1.7 percent, measured by 10-year debt. This divergence is politically and economically unsustainable and at some point it will snap. “History moves at the speed of a glacier, until it turns into a torrent,” Mody said.

Mody said there was “not a shred of evidence” that the TLTRO’s loans to banks would make any difference at this stage and warned that more QE would further concentrate the bank/sovereign “doom loop” without doing much to boost the economy: “QE in the eurozone has been a flop.”

The original sin was to tighten policy prematurely after the Lehman crisis before the recovery was self-sustaining. The ECB waited far too long to launch QE during the Trichet era, allowing the deflationary cancer to become lodged in the tissue. When it did belatedly act, the disease had already begun to metastasize. Huge doses of QE — pushing the balance sheet to over 40 percent of GDP — were still not enough to restore health.

“It has been a pattern of denial, delays, and half-measures. The ECB has the trappings of a central bank but it is not a normal central bank at all. It is a political animal,” Mody added.

* * *

end



iii) Other Physical stories

“In Gold We Trust”: Waning Confidence In US Sends World’s Central Banks On Buying Spree

Authored by Darius Shahtahmasebi, op-ed via RT.com,

Governments around the world have recently been on a “gold-buying spree.” These countries have a tactful reason for doing so, and this reason is directly tied to the anticipation of the inevitable end of US hegemony.

Central banks are among the largest purchasers of gold. So far in 2019, they have bought 145.5 tons of gold, which is more, in a quarter of a year, than central banks have purchased in the preceding six years. To put it bluntly, this figure represents a 68 percent increase from the year before. Last year, central banks increased their reserves by 651.5 tonnes compared to 375 tonnes in 2017. Reportedly, this is the largest net purchase of gold since 1967.

Most interesting, however, is the class of countries that we find are turning to hoarding more and more gold, many of which are deemed to be adversaries of Washington.

As always, Russia is the largest buyer of gold. In 2018, Russia’s Central Bank purchased 274.3 tons of gold. It also dumped 84 percent of its US treasury debts (we will come back to why this is important later.)

Turkey, another country which has signalled a shift away from the US-EU alliance and a greater willingness to cooperate with US economic and military rivals such as Russia, China, and even Iran, has sold off around 38 percent of its US debt and purchased more and more gold.

Other notable nations increasing their gold supply include Kazakhstan , Ecuador, Qatar, Serbia and Colombia, according to recent statistics. Even the Philippines has joined the gold-bandwagon, increasing its gold holdings in foreign reserves, as well as passing gold-specific legislation to assist small-scale miners in the country.

Why gold?

As a commodity, gold is interesting for a number of reasons. While many countries may have a vested interest in moving away from the stranglehold of the US and rely less and less on the dollar, we still have to ask ourselves: why would gold provide a meaningful solution in the interim?

Well, as Incrementum AG’s annual “In Gold We Trust” report explains:“trust looks to the future, forms itself in the present, and feeds itself from the past. As monetary asset, gold can look back on a successful five-thousand-year history in which it was able to maintain its purchasing power over long periods of time and never became worthless. Gold is the universal reserve asset to which central banks, investors, and private individuals from every corner of the world and of every religion and every class return again and again.

You see, this isn’t just about a secret, twisted desire of a handful of nations who seek the destruction of the United States economy. In fact, I would venture to say it is the complete opposite. It is about the erosion of trust. The United States can no longer be trusted to act fairly on the international stage. It imposes its will on other nations, using the leverage it maintains over the US dollar to strongarm countries into submission. As Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarifsaid in a recent interview:

This is what I believe is happening to the international community…that is people think twice before they talk to the United States because the know that what they agree today may not hold tomorrow.

Essentially, gold gives people “comfort.” You don’t have to go too far to see this type of thinking spreading to nations which once were regarded as close allies of Washington. According to a Malaysian outlet called Free Malaysia Today, Malaysian Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad recently called for the formation of a new currency backed by gold, which he believed would protect East Asian economies from trader manipulation.

He also reportedly spoke about the influence of the US and how it was not advantageous for the international financial markets to be tied to a single currency belonging to a nation state.

You [the US] are not democratic,” Mohamad said. “That is not for any single power to decide. If you want to live in a united world, a stable world, we must resort to sustainability through agreement between all nations that have a stake in that problem.”

Washington’s economic Achilles heel

Once upon a time, the US dollar was backed by the gold standard in a framework known as the Bretton-Woods agreement. The system ended up being short-lived, as President Richard Nixon announced that the US would be abandoning the gold standard in 1971. Instead, the Nixon Administration reached a deal with Saudi Arabia which became known as the Petrodollar Recycling system as the nations involved would have to invest excess profits back into the US. Sooner or later, every single member of OPEC had begun trading oil in US dollars.

While typically written off as a conspiracy theory, a widely undervalued economic theory stipulates that Washington’s ability to dominate the global financial markets is predominantly explained by the fact that all oil exports are conducted in transactions involving the US dollar on the international market (with only a small number of exceptions). The US dollar is also the world reserve currency, meaning most global transactions are done using the dollar anyway.

Even mainstream magazines who reject the theory – such as Foreign Policy – are forced to note that:

It does matter slightly that the trade typically takes place in dollars. This means that those wishing to buy oil must acquire dollars to buy the oil, which increases the demand for dollars in world financial markets.”

Those people who write this arrangement off as a conspiracy theory just aren’t reading the right commentaries. As far back as 1989, writing in his book The Roaring ‘80s, former Rhodes Scholar, Emmy Award-winning TV host, and Wall Street insider George Goodman (a.k.a. Adam Smith) brilliantly explained why the US dollar was so strong and had yet to have had its bubble popped:

First, we have a large reservoir of moral credit from our position as a world military leader and from our past as an investor and lender. Second, the dollar is the key currency. Dollars are what the world banks in, insures in, denominates. Before the dollar, it was the pound sterling, and the British got an extension on the tenure of their empire because the world hadn’t found another currency in which to denominate. If you operate in the key currency, it takes longer for the whistle to blow.”

Even if it was a crazy, baseless conspiracy theory for fringe YouTube communities, these are the terms in which the rest of the world certainly views this one-sided financial arrangement. This line of thinking also explains why the US uses its stranglehold over the dollar to bully other countries into submission through the use of sanctions. It also explains why other nations see Washington’s power over the global financial sector as its Achilles heel ultimately.

As stated by the head of Russia’s second largest bank Andrei Kostin in a speech last year:

The reign of the dollar must end…This whip that the Americans use in the form of the dollar would then, to a great extent, not have such a serious impact on the global financial system.

end
We are now approaching the huge $1350 resistance for gold  Gold has been stopped a few times at this level as the bankers must defend this level or their derivatives blow up. It looks like we blew past the 14.91- 15.00 dollar silver price and that too will put tremendous pressure on our derivative shorts in silver.
(courtesy John Rubino/DollarCollapse.com)

Gold Tests Resistance…Again. Will The Sixth Time Be The Charm?

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

Here we go again. After a couple of big trading sessions, gold – for the sixth time in five years – is approaching the $1,350-ish level that has, each previous time, stopped it cold.

It looks like fundamentals, including the Fed’s capitulation to choppy stock markets and trade-war related economic uncertainties, are trumping gold’s usual seasonality (strong in spring, weak in summer) at the moment. And those issues aren’t abating: Recent headlines paint a picture of an increasingly scary world:

Beijing warns US farmers may lose China market for good

Millennial net wealth collapses, study finds

Global manufacturing shrinks amid Wall Street recession warning

Yield curve expert with perfect record sees recession risk growing

There’s a lot more out there, but these four headlines are enough to convey the variety of dark clouds now combining into a perfect storm that has, among other things, spooked the Fed into openly discussing the next round of monetary experimentation. Just this week, Fed chairman Jerome Powell gave a version of ECB chair Mario Draghi’s famous “whatever it takes” speech in which he looked forward to exploring the “effective lower bound” (ELB), the point below which interest rates just can’t go. To have the central bank validating such an experiment – which, since we’ve never been there before, will have to be discovered by trial and error, the error being financial disruptions when rates get too low – is both unprecedented and a sign of how far out of control today’s monetary policy has spun. The markets seem to get this. Hence the pop in safe-haven assets like gold.

Here’s an observation from gold analyst Stewart Thompson:

SPDR (GLD-NYSE) tonnage surged to the 159 level yesterday. This is clear evidence that US money managers are also going for the gold! Chinese investors are reporting buying additional gold because they believe Trump cannot be trusted in negotiations.

I predicted that Chinese investors would begin buying gold instead of investing in stock markets as the trust issue reared its ugly head, and now it’s happening. The bottom line: It really doesn’t matter whether Trump can be trusted or not.

What matters is what US and Chinese investors believe, and they clearly believe that it’s time to go for the gold!

And one from commodities specialist Rick Mills:

The lives of gold mines have become so short, it takes longer to discover one and put it into production than the time from the onset of mining to closure.

Combine these supply factors with the demand-side reasons for owning gold right now. To recap, they include the series of economic indicators showing that US growth is grinding to a halt; worsening yield curve inversion; a potential trade spat with Europe waiting in the wings, as the US-China trade war appears no closer to a resolution; and the increasing tension between China and the US over Taiwan and the South China Sea, raising the possibility of war and a flight to safe havens like gold, and you have all the makings of a powerful and prolonged bull market for gold just as we are entering the most active time of the year for junior resource companies.

With all that is going on in the world, we believe the gold price will do well over the next few months

So will the sixth assault on $1,350 be the charm? And what happens when gold finally blows through this long-term resistance? That’s impossible to say, of course. But here’s hoping that old resistance becomes support and new resistance doesn’t form until somewhere in the $1,500s.

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

end
GOLD//SILVER TRADING TODAY:

 

end

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9098/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9478   /shanghai bourse CLOSED HOLIDAY

HANG SANG CLOSED HOLIDAY

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 110.67 POINTS OR 0.53%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index FALLS TO 97.06/Euro FALLS TO 1.1267

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.12/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.51/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 53.27 and Brent: 62.67

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.23%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.41% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.59%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.74: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.87

3k Gold at $1335.00silver at: 14.91   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 5/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.04

3m oil into the 53 dollar handle for WTI and 62 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.51 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9933 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1191 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.23%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.12% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.61%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.8417..

 

Powell-Inspired Stock Rally Continues As Payrolls Loom

Global markets are set to end the week – barring a shock from today’s nonfarm payrolls report – diametrically opposite from how they started it: with global market a sea of green, and the S&P on pace to close 100 points higher compared to where they started largely thanks to Powell’s hint that the Fed is open to a rate cut, one which is almost priced in by the market for the June FOMC meeting.

US equity futures rose with European stocks ahead of a “critical” jobs report, while the dollar climbed following the recent rout and Treasury yields also nudged higher, after Mexican and U.S. officials held a second day of talks on trade and migration on Thursday, with markets rebounding on optimism a deal could be close, although it was unclear if Mexican pledges to curb migration flows were enough to persuade the Trump administration to postpone tariffs.

Yet risks were still present after Vice President Mike Pence said Mexico had offered “more” on Thursday than on Wednesday but that it would be up to Trump – who returns from a European trip on Friday – to decide if it were enough. “There has been some movement on their part. It’s been encouraging,” he said. “The discussions are going to continue in the days ahead.”

As reported last night, Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said the Mexican government had offered to send 6,000 members of the National Guard to secure its southern border with Guatemala. In a sign of a wider crackdown, the leftist administration of Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said earlier that it blocked the bank accounts of 26 people for alleged links to human trafficking, while it detained on Wednesday at least 350 migrants crossing into Mexico and arrested two prominent migrant rights activists.

U.S.-Mexico migration talks will continue on Friday, Ebrard said, and markets breathed a sigh of relief with Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index headed for its biggest weekly advance in two months, boosted by a rise in oil stocks as crude prices rallied, ignoring the latest dismal data out of German, where the recent rebound in Industrial Production faded, and the May print of -1.9% was the worst going back five years.

Japanese and South Korean shares advanced, while China’s markets were closed for a holiday. Traders are closely watching developments in U.S.-Mexico trade talks after Vice President Mike Pence said his country still plansto impose tariffs on its neighbor next week.

On the other hand, if the tariffs do go ahead, the United States would be in a serious trade dispute with both China and Mexico – two of its three top trading partners. Analysts have warned that tariffs could spark a recession in Mexico. Credit ratings agency Fitch downgraded Mexico’s sovereign debt rating on Wednesday, citing trade tensions among other risks, while Moody’s lowered its outlook to negative.

Separately, the White House has drafted a document for Trump that would declare a new national emergency to implement the Mexican tariffs, according to a copy of the order seen by The Hill, however the head of the U.S. House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee vowed to take steps to block such a move.

In terms of immediate catalysts, all eyes are on the U.S. jobs report in an hour looking for clues on the strength of the economy, after Powell signaled this week he’s open to easier policy as trade tensions persist, and as investors are pricing in a 92% chance of a rate cut by September, Fed fund futures show. Powell’s counterpart in Europe, Mario Draghi, indicated Thursday he will react to any deterioration in the outlook for the region’s economy, though some had expected a clearer signal he’s willing to further loosen policy.

“It appears too early to call for the next round of liquidity-on fueling all asset classes,” said Alexander Kraemer, head of cross asset strategy at Commerzbank AG. “Markets are apparently not yet fully giving in to the central bank put.”

In FX news, the dollar advanced and Treasuries stabilized as traders awaited the U.S. jobs report. The euro dropped following a miss in German data while the pound led gains among G-10 currencies as the race for the U.K. prime minister’s post took center stage. The offshore yuan tumbled to its weakest level since November 2018 as PBOC governor Yi Gang said in an interview with Bloomberg that the nation has “tremendous” room to adjust policy.

In geopolitical news, the Russian Pacific Fleet issued a formal protest to the US regarding dangerous manoeuvring by a US ship, Russia said that one of their ships was forced to make a dangerous manoeuvre to avoid collision in the East China Sea. Subsequently, the US Navy says that a Russian destroyer made and unsafe and unprofessional approach to a US Missile cruiser in the Philippine Sea, which put the safety of US sailors at risk.

 

Other expected data include wholesale inventories. No major earnings releases are scheduled.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,853.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 376.60
  • MXAP up 0.07% to 153.69
  • MXAPJ unchanged at 501.43
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 20,884.71
  • Topix up 0.5% to 1,532.39
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 26,965.28
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.2% to 2,827.80
  • Sensex down 0.2% to 39,452.02
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1% to 6,443.89
  • Kospi up 0.2% to 2,072.33
  • Brent futures up 1.8% to $62.79/bbl
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to -0.234%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1263
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to 2.118%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.8 bps to 0.582%
  • Gold spot up 0.05% to $1,336.01
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.05% to 97.09

Top Overnight News

  • Vice President Mike Pence said the U.S. still plans to impose tariffs on Mexico next week, as American and Mexican officials planned further talks aimed at defusing a crisis between the two countries over the flow of undocumented migrants into the U.S.
  • The main U.K. opposition Labour Party unexpectedly held onto its Peterborough seat, slowing the march of Nigel Farage’s new pro-Brexit movement which bookmakers’ had expected to win Thursday’s by-election. The result will alarm members of the U.K.’s ruling Conservatives — who were beaten into third place
  • German industrial production plunged the most in almost four years in April and the nation’s central bank gave a gloomy assessment of the outlook, suggesting a persistent slump in Europe’s largest economy
  • China has “tremendous” room to adjust monetary policy if the trade war with the U.S. deepens, People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang said. Asked about his scheduled meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin this weekend, Yi said it would probably be a “productive talk, as always,” though the trade war topic would be “uncertain and difficult”
  • New York Fed President John Williams said the outlook for the U.S. economy remains solid while acknowledging that risks are rising and investors expect the central bank to lower interest rates
  • President Trump said he’ll decide whether to enact tariffs on another $325 billion in Chinese imports after the Group-of-20 meeting
  • U.S. Vice President Mike Pence said the U.S. still plans to impose tariffs on Mexico next week, as American and Mexican officials planned further talks
  • Bank of Japan increased purchases of bonds due in 10-to-25 years by 40b yen at its regular operation on Friday
  • Boris Johnson received a boost to his bid to become Britain’s next prime minister after a leading Conservative donor promised to give funds to his campaign

 

Asian equity markets were mostly higher following the tailwinds from US where sentiment was underpinned by hopes of averting tariffs on Mexico after reports the US was considering delaying tariffs as time for a deal was running short. However, White House Press Secretary Sanders later cast doubts on this and stated the US is still moving ahead with tariffs, while President Trump reportedly plans to declare a national emergency to impose the tariffs on Mexico. ASX 200 (+1.0%) was positive with the index led by the energy sector after similar outperformance stateside following a rebound in oil prices and Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) gained as exporters coat-tailed on favourable currency flows. KOSPI (+0.2%) eventually shrugged off the early indecisiveness and conformed to the upbeat tone but with gains capped across Asia-Pac bourses amid holiday closures across the Greater China region, ongoing trade uncertainty and ahead of the key NFP jobs data. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded marginally higher despite the gains in stocks as prices edged back above the 153.50 level and as yields declined in which the 30yr yield fell to its lowest since August 2016. The BoJ were also present in the market today for JPY 720bln in the belly to super-long end in which it increased its buying amount in 10yr-25yr maturities, although this was after it had already announced to reduce frequency of those purchases for the month.

Top Asian News

  • Turkish Traders Return Just in Time for End of Lira’s Hot Streak

European equities are higher across the board [Eurostoxx 50 +1.0%] as the region continues the positive handover from Asia with sentiment buoyed by reports that the US is considering delayed tariffs on Mexico. European sectors are all in the green with energy names outperforming as the oil market continues to recover from recent lows, whiles other sectors are showing broad-based gains. In terms of individual movers, Bpost (-9.7%), Deutsche Wohnen (-6.6%) and Royal Mail (-5.9%) all rest at the foot of the Stoxx 600 amid negative broker moves. Meanwhile, Sanofi (+4.9%) are higher after the Co. appointed Paul Hudson as CEO effective 1st September after the current CEO retired. Finally, MediaSet Espana (+8.6%) spiked higher in European trade amid reports that that the company is considering options in Spain, including a potential combination with its parent company MediaSet (+2.6%)

Top European News

  • Pound May Fall 2% If Boris Johnson Becomes U.K. PM, Survey Shows
  • Real Estate Extends Slump as German Rent Freeze Fears Persist
  • U.K. House Prices Unexpectedly Rise in Sign of Stabilization
  • Labour Wins U.K. By-Election as Farage Warns Tories Over Brexit

In FX news, the DXY index is holding just above the 97.000 level in a very tight range (97.007-124) into NFP, with the Dollar firmer or steady vs most major counterparts and racking up heftier gains against EMs. Clearly the upcoming US jobs data will provide the next big directional pointer for the Greenback and currency markets as a whole, but from a technical perspective the DXY is highly likely to remain well within nearest support and resistance around 97.745 (Wednesday’s low) and 97.546 (late May base) on the charts in advance.

  • GBP/CHF – The G10 outliers, as Cable continues to consolidate above the 1.2700 handle, though faces some resistance in the form of the 21 DMA at 1.2730, while the Franc is underperforming and still meeting offers ahead of the psychological 0.9900 mark as Eur/Chf eyes 1.1200 ahead of next week’s SNB Quarterly Policy review and post-Thursday’s ECB action.
  • CAD/NZD/AUD/EUR/JPY – All narrowly mixed vs the Usd, with the Loonie straddling 1.3350 and awaiting Canada’s labour report that should provide some independent impetus alongside the aforementioned US release, while the Aussie and Kiwi remain in flux following RBA and RBNZ inspired moves earlier this week, the former meandering between 0.6969-82 and latter from 0.6615 to 0.6626. Elsewhere, the single currency seems content or merely relieved to conform to the usual quieter pre-NFP trading environment after yesterday’s post-ECB whip-saw price moves, as Eur/Usd skirts 1.1258 and 1.1284 bounds, but is also ensconced in hefty expiries – 8.6 bn spanning 1.1200-1.1325, and 3.4 bn running off between 1.1250-60 and 1.1275 alone. Conversely, the Yen looks free from option interest after Thursday’s cluster stretching from 108.00 to 109.00, but has lost a bit more safe-haven premium as the broad recovery in risk appetite enters its 4th day. Hence, Usd/Jpy has probed above 108.50 to test the weight of supply reportedly close by.
  • EM – As noted above, further depreciation or bullish retracement across the region, and in particular the Cnh after dovish PBoC commentary overnight and with no official Cny midpoint fix to anchor the offshore Yuan. Accordingly, Usd/Cnh has hit highs just over 6.9600 and cleared option barriers at 6.9500 on the way. Meanwhile, Usd/Zar has extended through 15.0000 to 1.1650+ as the Rand suffers even more pronounced angst from ANC wrangling over the SARB’s mandate.

In commodities, WTI and Brent prices are firmly in the green and recovering from a five-month low amid reports of more engaged US-Mexico talks, which lifted sentiment during the US session. In the EU session, upside was exacerbated as Russian Energy Minister Novak and his Saudi counterpart Al-Falih participated in a panel discussion alongside a few CEOs from energy giants. Al-Falih noted that the precise volume of output (i.e. any potential revision to the OPEC+ deal) is still up for discussion and any decision taken at the upcoming meeting can be adjusted in H2 2019 (which was then echoed by the Iraqi Oil Minister), but he is sure that OPEC+ will extend the output pact. Furthermore, Al-Falih acknowledged that the Kingdom is “already cutting deeper”, referring to the overcompliance noted at the JMMC meeting last month, which comes in the context of sources noting that the Russian and Saudi Energy Minister discussed a scenario which would see an elimination of over-compliance (currently over 150%, equating to output cuts of just under 2mln BPD, according to calculations). This would mean a continuation of the current deal and an increase in production of around 0.8mln BPD. Finally, regarding the date of the next meeting, Novak spoke of consensus among “many oil producers” are skewed towards a July 2/4 meeting in Vienna, i.e. a delayed to the original June 25/26 date. Elsewhere, precious metals are uneventful and largely tentative ahead of the key US labour market report (Full preview available in the Research Suite), although the yellow metal is poised for its biggest weekly gain in six-months. Elsewhere, copper trades with marginal gains but with upside capped ahead of the US jobs numbers and the absence of China. To provide some colour, Codelco, the largest miner of the red metal, notes that copper demand “remains good” despite recent trade-sparked decline in prices, but the price rout could discourage mining companies from making investment decision, which could lead to tightened supply, while a potential strike at one of the Co’s main mines could add to the global deficit.

Looking at the day ahead, we’ve got the May employment report as well as April wholesale inventories and April consumer credit data. Away from that, the ECB’s Nowotny and Rimsevics are due to speak.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 175,000, prior 263,000
  • 8:30am: Unemployment Rate, est. 3.6%, prior 3.6%
  • 8:30am: Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%; YoY, est. 3.2%, prior 3.2%
  • 8:30am: Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.5, prior 34.4;
  • 8:30am: Labor Force Participation Rate, prior 62.8%; Underemployment Rate, prior 7.3%
  • 10am: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. -0.2%, prior 2.3%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7%
  • 3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $13.0b, prior $10.3b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s my birthday next week and last night summed up all that is wrong about getting old. My wife was helping to shave my (mostly) bald head and told me that my eyebrows were growing a bit wilder these days. Then she said “I know what I’ll get you for your birthday… an eyebrow comb”. Part of me died as I heard that. As an example of how things have changed for my 21st birthday my university friends got me 21 bottles of my favourite 2 litre bottles of cider which came in handy post my finals which finished on the same day. As I’m now about to turn 45, an eyebrow comb is clearly seen to be the most suitable present. How depressing and underwhelming.

“Underwhelmed” is probably the best way to describe how markets felt post the ECB yesterday. Slightly more generous than expected terms on TLTRO3 wasn’t matched by an “or lower” reference to rates guidance that some had been looking for. Draghi’s press conference failed to really deliver the dovishness that the market hoped for either and it begs the question of what will it take for the ECB to really pivot that way now. To be fair I don’t think you should conduct policy by what the market wants to hear, but the problem for the ECB is that we do live in a very “financial conditions” sensitive world and one which they have themselves encouraged in various sugar rush policies of the past. Central banks have created monsters that they now have to try to look after or face a backlash. More on the ECB later, but trade is likely to be a big dictator of what they eventually do next and yesterday we heard President Trump confirm that he will decide on whether or not to trigger the next round of tariffs on China after the G20 meeting at the end of this month. So that will be a big focal point for markets.

The end result of all that was a bit of quiet session for equities with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ ending +0.61% and +0.53% higher, respectively, amid lower-than-average trading volumes. Markets in Europe had traded well pre-ECB, but fell sharply after Draghi. The STOXX 600 finished -0.02% (highs +0.71%) while European Banks slumped -1.42% and were -2.96% down from their intraday highs. The sector is now down -16.80% from the April local peak and therefore only a few bad sessions away from a bear market. Italian Banks also reversed to close down -1.15% and -3.13% from their highs. Meanwhile 10y Bunds ended -1.3bps lower at -0.239% after trading in an intraday range of a little over 5bps. 10y Treasuries ended -0.5bps lower at 2.130% while 2y yields finished +3.6bps higher, flattening the 2s10s curve back to 23.5bps. The euro (+0.47%) was a shade firmer while EUR 5y5y inflation expectations dipped to touch their 2016 lows, but rose just before European markets closed to end the session flat at 1.29%

Overnight, the PBoC Governor Yi Gang said that China has “tremendous” room to adjust monetary policy if the trade war with the US deepens and on the yuan depreciation said that no “numerical number” is more important than another while adding, “recently, it’s a little bit weaker, because the tremendous pressure from the US side.” The offshore Chinese yuan is trading a touch weaker (-0.16%) this morning at 6.9384. Elsewhere, US Vice President Mike Pence is now scheduled to deliver his speech on US-China relations at Washington’s Wilson Centre on June 24. His speech could be significant given the hawkish remarks he had made on China in October last year at the Hudson Institute.

This morning in Asia markets are largely trading up with the Nikkei (+0.58%), Kospi (+0.30%) and S&P ASX (+0.62%) all higher. Markets in Hong Kong and China are closed for a holiday. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.14% while WTI crude oil prices are up +1.37% this morning. In other overnight news, President Donald Trump repeated his criticism of the Fed’s interest rate hikes saying that the stock market would be 10,000 points higher had the Fed kept rates lower.

Meanwhile, here in the UK, Theresa May will be stepping down today as Conservative party leader but will carry on as PM until late July when the new leader will be elected. Elsewhere, in the Peterborough by-election yesterday, the Labour party was able to defend the seat by taking 30.9% of the vote and beating candidates from the Brexit Party (28.9% votes) and Conservative party (21.4%).

Back to the ECB now, where the main takeaways included a commitment to keep rates unchanged at least through the first half of 2020 but without an “or lower” reference to forward guidance. The pricing terms for TLTRO3 was set at depo+10bps for banks meeting lending targets and MRO+10bps for those that don’t, better than what our economists and the market more broadly expected but still not as generous as TLTRO2. Growth forecasts were revised down for 2020 and 2021 and inflation revised down one-tenth for 2020, but left unchanged for 2021. Draghi’s press conference included a number of repeats from the last meeting with little reference to any new global risks to the outlook initially or a willingness to acknowledge market pricing, however later on he did cite that council members had raised the possibility of rate cuts, a restart to APP and/or a further extension to forward guidance which was at least somewhat welcome to markets. There was also an abrupt effort to play down the next move being a hike rather than a cut however this all felt a little late in the press conference.

Our economists have a full review of the ECB fallout and the roadmap moving forward ( here ). They re-emphasize that their base case is still for the ECB to keep its policy stance unchanged this year, as conditions are accommodative and inflation is still expected to rise gradually back toward target. They also argue that we’re approaching the point where Draghi’s comments lose significance, given his impending departure. Our economists will therefore be watching the rhetoric from his potential successors and from new Chief Economist Lane for clues about the policy outlook. Finally, they note three potential scenarios that would likely prompt the ECB to deploy new policy measures: 1) a major risk materializing, e.g. no-deal Brexit, trade war escalation, or Italy crisis; 2) a deeper slowdown in broader economic activity relative to expectations; or 3) a shift in relative policy stance, i.e. policy easing from the Fed that results in a stronger euro and undermines euro area inflation.

So the baton passes to the Fed with the next meeting to mark in your diary being June 19th. It goes without saying that data between now and then will be finely picked apart and it starts with the US employment report this afternoon. In terms of what to expect, following a stronger-than-expected 263k last month, the consensus for today is 175k with a spread amongst economists of 65k to 228k. A reminder that we got a very, very weak ADP this week (27k) albeit offset by improved employment component readings from both the ISM surveys. Our US economists expect a 160k reading which should be enough to keep the unemployment rate steady at 3.6%. As for earnings, they forecast a +0.3% mom reading. Needless to say that with the Fed and market both locked in on the data at the moment, there will be plenty of focus on today’s report.

We got another few snippets of Fedspeak yesterday before the start of their regular blackout period tomorrow. NY Fed President Williams repeated that his “baseline is a very good one” but that he is “prepared to adjust views” as necessary. He also said that the yield curve sends “a pretty strong signal” but that it’s not an “oracle.” Notably, he also said that he’s not worried about the big divergence between market pricing and the fed’s median interest rate projections. Dallas Fed President Kaplan also argued for patience, saying he wants “to give this a little more time” to let events unfold. One interesting tidbit from his remarks, however, was his emphasis on credit spreads rather than equities as the most relevant metric to gauge financial tightening. San Francisco President Daly is due to speak today, then there’s nothing on the calendar until the June 19th meeting.

Turning now to trade, where we are plowing ahead toward President Trump’s Monday deadline for his planned Mexico tariffs. Although the White House has not publicly made any specific demands, they have asked that Mexico “step up and help solve” the issue of illegal immigration. In talks yesterday, Mexican Foreign Minister Ebrard said that the two sides have made “advances.” Anonymous US sources in the media said that the tariffs may be delayed, while simultaneously other sources said that they are likely to be implemented, even if just briefly. Vice President Pence then confirmed that as of now, tariffs are set to be imposed on schedule, though bilateral talks are set to continue today.

Yesterday’s data didn’t really add much to the debate. Claims were unchanged at 218k and marginally higher than expected. The April trade balance showed a deficit of $50.8bn, narrowing from the month prior, while final Q1 revisions for nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs were confirmed at 3.4% and -1.6%, respectively – the latter revised down. That said, the Atlanta Fed’s nowcast model for second quarter GDP growth did inch +0.2pp higher yesterday to 1.5%, its highest level in a month.

To the day ahead now, where data this morning includes April industrial production prints in Germany and France as well as trade data in the former. In the US we’ve got the aforementioned May employment report as well as April wholesale inventories and April consumer credit data. Away from that, the ECB’s Nowotny and Rimsevics are due to speak.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

I)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN HOLIDAY  //Hang Sang CLOSED HOLIDAY   /The Nikkei closed UP 110.67 POINTS OR 0.53%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .91%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9098 /Oil DOWN TO 52.49 dollars per barrel for WTI and 60.38 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9098 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9478 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

 

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

SOUTH KOREA

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA/CHINESE AFFAIRS

China

Oh OH!! this is not what the USA wants to hear:  The POBC governor Yi has just stated that there is tremendous room to ease monetary policy. He indicates that he will lower rates and reserve ratios and that will drop the yuan to 7 to one.  That will push massive deflation on the world and basically push all interest rates to zero and negative

(courtesy zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

i) UK/

Mish Shedlock is putting his money on Boris Johnson and a no deal Brexit

(courtesy mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Stop Boris Campaign Is Doomed From The Start: Prepare For No Deal

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The bookmakers give Boris a 1 in 3 shot of becoming the next PM. Focus on reality, not bookie odds.

The “Stop Boris” campaign is in full swing, but it’s as likely to be as much of a success as the “Anybody But Trump” Campaign in 2016.

Stop Boris Theory

  1. Boris has to beat out all of the other Brexiteers. He may fail.
  2. If Boris survives to the final round, he still has to beat out someone who promises to secure a deal.
  3. Tories will rally around the second choice.

For starters, don’t confuse betting odds with true odd. Betters are not reliable predictors of elections. Bookies arrange their books (or at least attempt to), based on bets people make. The bookies don’t care who wins or loses if their books are properly balanced. Betting is not a scientific poll.

Missing the Boat

An alleged Tory “Polling Expert” says Boris Johnson Fails to Appeal to Floating Voters Needed to Win Election.

Tory peer Lord Hayward said there was a “striking antipathy” towards the former Foreign Secretary in traditional Tory areas like the Home Counties.

The peer said whoever becomes the next Tory leader must win over those who voted Leave in 2016 if the party is to stand any chance of victory.

However, he said they must also be “transfer-friendly”, meaning they appeal to floating voters more interested in competent government.

By that measurement, Mr Johnson scores badly compared to leadership rivals Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt. “Boris is pitching to MPs at the moment saying ‘I am the one who will win’,” Lord Hayward said.

Remainer Sap

Hayward does not provide “expert analysis”.

Instead, Hayward provides heaping cups of Remainer sap in the form of the same misguided Remainer theories that led to the demise of Theresa May.

Delusional Remainers

Similarly, Independent writer John Rentoul misses the mark by a mile with his analysis: Boris Johnson is going to blow it – and it will be Michael Gove who will pip him to become prime minister.

These people are delusional Remainers.

Rise of the Brexit Party

  • Gove and Hunt are as pathetic as Theresa May.
  • Wishy-washy compromise is not the way to go.
  • Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party provides all the evidence one needs.

MP’s Rally Around Boris

Eurointelligence provides excellent analysis of what’s really taking place.

We are full of admiration for the sporting spirit of the British media. But leadership race feels to us like a bit of a misnomer for what is currently dominating Tory and UK politics. It is not really a race. It may not even be a competition. Boris Johnson has been in pole position from the start, and he is now building on his lead.

The Times has a story this morning that three Remain-supporting Tory junior ministers are supporting Johnson. They said that he is the only candidate who can save the party from extinction. Self-preservation – not Brexit – has suddenly become the main issue for the Tories. Johnson is the only candidate with a chance to defeat Jeremy Corbyn in a general electionMPs have strong views on Brexit. But they have even stronger views on the importance of holding their own seats. They are supporting the leader most likely to ensure their political survival.

The main effect of Farage on British politics is not his own election results, but his impact on the Tories. Like Farage, Johnson draws on the benefit of a simple message. Farage frames the argument as one of Brexit versus betrayal. For Johnson it is a choice between Brexit and the extinction of the Tory party.

The whole stop-Boris campaign some MPs talked about never made sense to us because of the way the vote is structured. Starting Thursday next week, MPs will vote for a shortlist of two candidates in four elimination rounds. The remaining three votes will take place June 18, 19 and 20. Johnson has so far received public endorsements by forty MPs, which will be enough to get him into the third round of voting. Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt have twenty-six each.

Tory members will then choose one of the two from the shortlist. We know that Johnson is the strong favourite among the party faithful. If he were to drop out for some reason, we expect the winner to be one of the other Brexiteers – Dominique Raab for instance. We doubt that Tories will vote for Gove, given his support for Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement. A recent story in the Daily Telegraph claimed Gove proposed a Brexit extension until 2020 in a cabinet meeting. That makes him essentially unelectable in view of the Farage threat. We cannot see the Tories voting for any candidate who fails to deliver Brexit before general elections. And these might arrive early, given the narrow majority in the House of Commons.

Self-Preservation

Eurointelligence commented “MPs have strong views on Brexit. But they have even stronger views on the importance of holding their own seats.”

Bingo.

Change UK Provides Lesson in Reality

The misguided set of eleven “Change UK” MPs is now down to five.

Change UK” is a new political party formed by former Labour and Tory MPs who wanted to Remain.

What the hell kind of change is that?

Dire Results

Amusingly, Change UK Lost Six of its 11 MPs After Dire EU Elections Result.

Six of Change UK’s 11 MPs, including its spokesman, Chuka Umunna, and interim leader Heidi Allen, have abandoned the fledgling party after its dire performance at the European elections.

Message is Clear

Change UK will soon vanish. It elected zero MPs in the EU parliament elections and will elect zero MPs in the next UK general election.

Six Change UK politicians already abandoned the party out of self-preservation.

The best way for politicians to keep their job is to deliver Brexit.

Neither Hunt nor Gove will do that.

One way or another a die-hard no-deal Brexiteer (Johnson or Dominic Raab) will properly deliver Brexit.

END

 

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/CYPRUS/ISRAEL/GREECE

Gatestone provides an update to us on the incursion of Turkey onto Cyprus waters drilling for natural gas.  This is very worrisome as both Cyprus and Turkey are members of NATO.  The EU and the USA will sanction Turkey for its aggressions.  Turkey is deficient in energy and needs the natural gas that was discovered by Israel 5 to 6 years ago.  Israel will defend Cyprus and relations between Israel and Egypt have also improved.  Egypt has discovered a huge deposit in their neck of the woods. This is a powder keg ready to explode

(COURTESY GATESTONE/BULAT)

Turkey’s “Second Invasion” Of Cyprus: Illegal Drilling In Eastern Mediterranean

Authored by Uzay Bulut via The Gatestone Institute,

  • “Although Turkey has been violating Cyprus’s sovereignty since 1974, the current highly volatile internal political and economic situation in Turkey has made the Turkish government get even more aggressive in the eastern Mediterranean….For Mr. Erdogan’s plans to succeed, Cyprus needs to be eliminated. — Harris Samaras, an expert on the Cypriot EEZ and chairman of the international investment banking firm Pytheas.
  • “Mr. Erdogan is aware that it will be impossible for Turkey to achieve its goals of regional hegemony if US interests in particular, but also French ones, develop a firm foothold in Cyprus. This is his biggest fear.”— Harris Samaras.

  • The East Med Pipeline, then — which has been started with the blessing of the US — is of the utmost importanceAt the last trilateral meeting of Israel, Cyprus and Greece, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was present and supported the project. If it goes ahead, it will be a major slap in the face for Turkey’s energy plans.” — Harris Samaras.
  • Concrete steps should be taken to stop Turkish violations against Cyprus’s EEZ.Sanctions should be imposed at the level of the European Council to the persons and companies responsible for the drilling. All pre-accession funds to Turkey should be blocked, and Turkish access to loans by the European Investment Bank should be eliminated. Additional options, if Turkey escalates the situation further, are imposing sanctions on Turkey’s banking sector and freezing the accession process altogether. The US also needs to lift the irrational arms embargo it imposed on the Republic of Cyprus in 1987, and help it to rearm and modernize its ability to defend itself, while keeping the UN peace keeping mission (UNFICYP) intact.” — Theodoros Tsakiris, assistant professor of energy policy and geopolitics at the University of Nicosia.

According to Harris Samaras, an expert on the Cypriot EEZ and chairman of the international investment banking firm Pytheas, “The East Med Pipeline… is of the utmost importance. At the last trilateral meeting of Israel, Cyprus and Greece, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was present and supported the project.”

Pictured: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets in Jerusalem with Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, on March 20, 2019. (Image source: Israel Government Press Office)

Turkey’s latest provocation against the Republic of Cyprus — drilling for gas in the Cypriot Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the eastern Mediterranean — has elicited harsh reactions from the international community.

Likening Turkey’s encroachment to “a second invasion,” Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades said that the action constitutes a “violation of international law;” his Foreign Ministry submitted a map delineating its EEZ boundaries with Turkey to the United Nations. In addition, Cypriot Foreign Minister Nicos Christodoulides said that his government is seeking an international arrest warrant for the crew of “Fatih,” the drilling vessel that Ankara dispatched to Cypriot waters.

EU High Representative and Vice President, Federica Mogherini promptly issued a statement “urgently call[ing] on Turkey to show restraint, respect the sovereign rights of Cyprus in its exclusive economic zone and refrain from any such illegal action to which the European Union will respond appropriately and in full solidarity with Cyprus.”

The U.S. State Department also urged Turkey to halt the drilling.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry lashed out with a statement of its own:

“[T]he attempts of the third parties to act as an international court in determining maritime boundaries is unacceptable. In this context, the statement of the US calling Turkey by expressing that “there exists Greek Cypriot claims over the area” is neither constructive nor compatible with international law, given the fact that there is no valid maritime delimitation agreement in the region.”

In a recent interview with the Gatestone Institute, Harris Samaras, an expert on the Cypriot EEZ and chairman of the international investment banking firm Pytheas, explained:

“Although Turkey has been violating Cyprus’s sovereignty since 1974, the current highly volatile internal political and economic situation in Turkey has made the Turkish government get even more aggressive in the eastern Mediterranean. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the ruling AKP party have to save face by sustaining the dogma of supranationalism that granted him and his party power.

“Another factor that triggered Turkey here was the confirmation of commercial hydrocarbons within Cyprus’ EEZ and the announced interest of oil and gas conglomerates, such as ExxonMobil, ENI and Total to continue their activities. Last year, ENI was obstructed by Turkey’s gunboats from continuing operations. But ExxonMobil was not. Why? Because it was accompanied by the US Navy, so Turkey could not do anything.

“Meanwhile, the natural gas discoveries by ExxonMobil have demonstrated that Cyprus could eventually establish a liquefaction plant to serve Cypriot and regional deposits. This would almost automatically transform Cyprus into a regional hydrocarbon hub, and at the same time reduce Turkey’s energy importance, plans and investments.

Politically, the biggest regional threat to Turkey’s targeting of Cyprus is Israel. The strongest energy link for Israel is Cyprus, a democratic, EU member state. So, for Mr. Erdogan’s plans to succeed, Cyprus needs to be eliminated. Moreover, Egypt is a significant regional force with the Zhor natural gas fields in its arsenal. Despite past differences, Israeli and Egyptian relationships have improved.

“Mr. Erdogan is aware that it will be impossible for Turkey to achieve its goals of regional hegemony if US interests in particular, but also French ones, develop a firm foothold in Cyprus. This is his biggest fear.

“In addition, Turkey’s relationship with Russia has strengthened in recent years. If Turkey ends up installing Russian S-400s, Mr. Erdogan knows that his geopolitical span and influence will be in many ways limited, as they will come into direct conflict with US and Israeli interests. ‘Neutralizing’ Cyprus, the weakest link in the equation, in many ways disarms Israel’s regional geopolitical effectiveness.

The East Med Pipeline, then — which has been started with the blessing of the US — is of the utmost importance. At the last trilateral meeting of Israel, Cyprus and Greece, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was present and supported the project. If it goes ahead, it will be a major slap in the face for Turkey’s energy plans.”

Theodoros Tsakiris, assistant professor of energy policy and geopolitics at the University of Nicosia, told Gatestone:

“Turkey started targeting the Cyprus’ EEZ in 2011, when it signed a demarcation agreement of its continental shelf with the Turkish occupied area of Cyprus that only Turkey recognizes as an independent state — the so-called ‘Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus’ (TRNC). Not only are the Turkish activities in Cyprus’s EEZ illegal, but the Turkish ships are also causing serious difficulties for Cypriot and international companies operating in the area. In February 2018, for example, the Turkish navy blocked the attempted drilling of the Italian oil company ENI in the demarcated Cypriot EEZ. Meanwhile, more Turkish drilling ships may be on their way.

“Concrete steps should be taken to stop Turkish violations against Cyprus’s EEZ. Sanctions should be imposed at the level of the European Council to the persons and companies responsible for the drilling. All pre-accession funds to Turkey should be blocked, and Turkish access to loans by the European Investment Bank should be eliminated. Additional options, if Turkey escalates the situation further, are imposing sanctions on Turkey’s banking sector and freezing the accession process altogether. The US also needs to lift the irrational arms embargo it imposed on the Republic of Cyprus in 1987, and help it to rearm and modernize its ability to defend itself, while keeping the UN peace keeping mission (UNFICYP) intact.”

end

The Turkish lira slides after the USA refused to train any more Turks learning the F 35 systems

(courtesy zerohedge)

Lira Slides After US Refuses To Accept More Turkish F-35 Pilots

With the pissing contest between Russia and the US over who will sell Turkey advanced defense missile systems raging, and which the Kremlin appears to be winning, on Friday the US decided to stop accepting any additional Turkish pilots who were set to come to the United States to train on F-35 fighter jets, officials told Reuters in a clear sign of the escalating dispute over Ankara’s plans to purchase Russian air defenses.

The NATO member states have sparred publicly for months over Turkey’s order for Russia’s S-400 air defense system, which Washington says poses a threat to the Lockheed Martin Corp F-35 stealthy fighters, which Turkey also plans to buy.

The US position is simple: Turkey cannot have both, but has avoided taking steps until now to curtail or halt planned training of Turkish pilots in the program, a reprisal that could be seen as an embarrassment in Turkey.

Reuters sources said that the decision could still be reversed, if Turkey altered its plans, however so far Erdogan has refused to do so, oblivious of the escalating war of words from the US, which may soon resort to implementing fresh tariffs on Ankara, whose economy has seen a sharp contraction ever since the issue first came to a head last summer. The sources said the decision so far only applied to upcoming rounds of Turkish pilots and maintenance crews who would have normally come to the United States.

According to Reuters, there has not yet been a formal decision to halt the training of the Turkish pilots and maintenance crews now at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona, although a separate report last week said that the step was being seriously considered.

Four Turkish pilots are currently training at Luke. Two additional Turkish pilots are at the U.S. base working as instructors. Beyond those six Turkish officers, there are an additional 20 Turkish aircraft maintainers at the base undergoing training as well, the U.S. military says.

Turkey has expressed interest in buying 100 of the fighters, which would have a total value of $9 billion at current prices; which is why we doubt the US would ultimately refuse to sell them under pressure from US neocons.

Of course, further escalation is not unlikely, and if Turkey were removed from the F-35 program, it would be one of the most significant ruptures in recent history in the relationship between the two allies, experts said. But strains in ties between Washington and Ankara already extend beyond the F-35 to include conflicting strategy in Syria, Iran sanctions and the detention of U.S. consular staff in Turkey.

The announcement of the decision on the pilots follows signs that Turkey is moving ahead with the S-400 purchase. Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said on May 22 that Turkish military personnel were receiving training in Russia to use the S-400, and that Russian personnel may come to Turkey. Separately, president Erdogan said on Tuesday it was “out of the question” for Turkey to back away from its deal with Moscow.

Kathryn Wheelbarger, one of the Pentagon’s most senior policy officials, said last week that Turkey’s completion of the transaction with Russia would be “devastating,” dealing heavy blows to the F-35 program and to Turkish interoperability within the NATO alliance.

“The S-400 is a Russian system designed to shoot down an aircraft like the F-35,” said Wheelbarger, an acting assistant secretary of defense. “And it is inconceivable to imagine Russia not taking advantage of that (intelligence) collection opportunity.”

News of the escalation sent the lira sliding, ending a whopping 10-day streak of gains for the Turkish currency, the longest since May 2014, as traders returned from the 3-day Eid break.

Not helping the currency was an announcement by the country’s finmin (and Erdogan son-in-law) said inflation may fall to single-digit levels (which is impossible unless the government gives the “China” treatment to its economic data), which however would suggest the central bank would be more likely to cut rates sooner.

 

END

 

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

Mexico/USA

Wall street sees no clear end game with respect to the Mexican tariffs.  Here is what various commentators are saying:

(courtesy zerohedge)

“There’s No Clear End Game” – Here’s What Wall Street Is Saying About Trump’s Mexico Tariffs

Only four days remain until the Trump Administration imposes its first round of tariffs on Mexican imports. And analysts from across Wall Street have waned that imposing these tariffs will inflict serious pain on markets, unless negotiators can change Trump’s mind and stop the tariffs from taking effect..

Aocados

Here’s a sampling of what some analysts are saying about the tariffs, according to Bloomberg.

RBC, Lori Calvasina

The Trump administration failing to reach a truce with Mexico on Wednesday adds to concern “the market’s pullback from the April highs isn’t finished,” Calvasina wrote in a note. RBC has been optimistic an all-out trade war with Mexico would be avoided, but “one of the most important things we’ve learned about covering the U.S. equity market during the Trump presidency is that it pays to be prepared for the worst, unthinkable outcomes,” she said.

Calvasina still views the second-quarter reporting season as a “pivotal test for stocks and an opportunity for markets to stabilize as 2019 earnings expectations are reset.’

Cowen, Chris Krueger

Cowen’s base case remains that the tariffs go into effect, though the situation is “very fluid and entirely dependent on Trump’s mood on Sunday.”

Krueger sees negative read-through for China and other trade talks, as “who wants to sign deals (USMCA) only to be knee-capped weeks later with arbitrary tariff threats?” He added that “whether or not the tariffs go into place on Monday, we believe that real and lasting damage has been done to the broader Trump trade grand strategy.”

AGF Investments, Greg Valliere

“Can Trump take yes for an answer?” Valliere asked in a note, adding that “even Trump’s hard-line trade hawk, Peter Navarro, said yesterday that the U.S. has obviously gotten Mexico’s attention, and that an agreement could be reached that avoids new tariffs.” That means “there’s room for Trump to spin Mexican concessions as a victory.”

At the same time, there’s “no clear end-game,” Valliere wrote. Trump “can’t possibly think that the flood of immigrants will be reduced to zero in one month, so what’s his objective? A sharp reduction? We’ll be glued to the Sunday talk shows, because the outcome won’t be clear until Monday — if then.”

Height Capital Markets, Clayton Allen

Some Mexican positions, including asking the U.S. to stem a flow of guns across the border, pose “significant challenges to a deal,” Allen wrote in a note. “Efforts to impose restrictions and enforcement measures on gun sales in the U.S. are a non-starter for Trump’s base and probably unsupportable for the White House.”

Mexico’s rejecting U.S. demands that they house Central American asylum seekers also presents a challenge, and may “draw the ire of conservative groups who accuse Mexico of being a ‘free rider’ in the asylum debate,” he said. Conservative attention limits Trump and raises the risk he’ll be “backed into the same corner he was over government funding in late 2018, which resulted in a shutdown.”

end

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

INDIA

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.12567 DOWN .0008 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.51 UP 0.056 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2713   UP   0.0019  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//

USA/CAN 1.3349 DOWN .0008 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1267 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED HOLIDAY 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED HOLIDAY

 

 

 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.91%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED HOLIDAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED HOLIDAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.91% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 110.67  POINTS OR 0.53%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1335.10

silver:$14.92

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.12% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 2.61 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 97.06 UP 2 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.62% DOWN 5 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.12%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.55%//down 6 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.36down 10 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 181 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS –.26% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.62% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1327  UP   .0051 or 51 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.13 DOWN .319 OR YEN UP 32  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2742 UP .0047 POUND UP 47  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 39 basis points to 1.3289

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9098    0N SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9433  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  5.8241 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.12%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.08 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.58 down 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.59 DOWN 45  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 72.09  0.99%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 92.24 POINTS OR 0.77%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 85.62 POINTS 1.62%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 66.900 POINTS or 0.73%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 182.78 POINTS OR 0.91%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 54.04 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 63.10 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    64.84  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.23 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 23 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.24 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  54.09//

 

 

BRENT :  63.34

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.08…   VERY DEADLY// AND INDICATIVE OF A HUGE RECESSION COMING UPON US//AND BOND MARKET DID NOT BUY THE DOW RISE!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.57..VERY DEADLY/ AND INDICATIVE OF A HUGE RECESSION COMING UPON US://BOND MARKET DID NOT BUY THE DOW/NASDAQ RISE

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.33335 ( UP 58   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108,20 UP .254 (YEN UP 25 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.59 DOWN 45 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2735 UP 41  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 5.8324

 

 

the Russian rouble 64.79   UP 0.29 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 29 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3326 UP 81 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.9098  (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9434 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.26%

 

The Dow closed  UP 1263.28 POINTS OR 1.02%

 

NASDAQ closed up 126.55 POINTS OR 1.66%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  16.30 CLOSED UP .37

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.453%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.471

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY//

FedSpeak Sparks Best Week For Stocks In 6 Months; USD & Yields Plunge

 

Alt-headline: “Markets Jump On Optimism US Economy Sliding Into Recession”

Embedded video

Only In Asia@Crazyinnasia

Japanese game shows are the craziest.

But, for those relying on help to save the day, The Fed won’t cut rates until stocks plunge, which won’t happen because the Fed is expected to cut if stocks plunge…

Never mind that – just buy it!!!

NOTE – after being panic-bid every day into the close, Friday saw weakness.

This was the best start to a June since 2000…

And best week since November for US stocks…

NOTE – we have seen this pattern before and it did not end well.

While a somewhat nonsensical way to look at things, we note that this week saw the biggest point gain for the Dow in history

 

Dow 26,000 remains a key level… (Dow crossed above all its major moving averages this week)…

 

But The Dow ended back below 26k…

 

Intraday, Dow futures went nowhere from the European close onwards today…

 

US Materials stocks soared…

Having their best week in 10 years…

 

FANG Stocks surged on Tuesday and Friday …

 

MSFT hit a new record high above $1 trillion market cap today…

 

After the initial surge on Tuesday, Defensive stocks have notably outperformed Cyclicals…

 

VIX and Stocks dramatically diverged today (upside call-buying or downside-protection bid?)

 

While US markets soared, Chinese stocks tumbled, breaking below key support levels and entering a bear market…

 

But European markets also surged this week…

 

And this chart sums it all up…

 

Treasury yields are lower today, shifting most of the curve notably lower on the week (30Y underperforming)

 

Yields touched new cycle lows intraday today…

 

But 10Y Yields have traded in a tight range all week…

 

On the week, expectations for rate-cuts in 2019 continued to escalate as various Fed heads jawboned the markets higher with promises of rate-cuts…

 

Bond volatility has exploded – idiosyncratically – this week…

 

The Dollar plunged this week – its worst since March 2018…to its lowest since mid-April…

 

While the dollar tumbled, so the yuan tumbled even further against the dollar, testing below the recent lows of the range (down to the weakest since Nov 2018) before bouncing back today…

NOTE – look how tight the range has been in the last few weeks.

 

Cable rallied on the week – for a change…

And we note The BoJo is now at 66% odds of winning.

 

The peso trod water (admittedly with lots of headline vol) after plunging on tariff headlines last week…

 

Cryptos rallied to end the week, lifting Ripple to unch and Litecoin into the green…

 

Bitcoin back above $8k today…

 

PMs led the week (as the dollar tumbled), oil bounced today back into the green for the week, but copper dipped…

 

Dr.Copper is down 8 weeks in a row (the most since Oct 2016 – after Brexit)…

What is that saying about the economy?

 

Gold had its best week since April 2016 and is up 8 days in a row…topping the Maginot Line of $1350…

$1350 has been a line in the sand for gold for a few years…

This is the longest win streak for gold since 2011

 

Gold in Yuan surged on the week to its highest since April 2013…

 

So, Finally, what drove this week’s almost unprecedented surge in stocks?

Simple – Trump launching Mexican, Indian trade war; US labor market cracking; US GDP slowing; German manufacturing collapsing; S. Korean export drop needs a bigger chart; Global PMIs plunging; bond yields crashing…

And 13 Fed Speakers all singing dovishly from the same plunge-protecting hymn-sheet.

Bad news is good news once again…

Global economic surprise data has now been negative since April 2018 – the longest period on record.

*  *  *

Bonus Chart: Trading at 27x forward Sales, Beyond Meat sums up the entire market…

It’s fake!

end

 

i) Market trading/ last night

MARKET TRADING/EARLY THIS MORNING

Peso, Futures Rally After Mexico Agrees To Defend Its Southern Border, Talks Continue

Update (1930ET): While Mexico’s Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard confirmed no deal had been reached, he confirmed that Mexico has proposed to send about 6,000 national guard troops to its southern border with Guatemala to help stem migration.

“Tomorrow we are going to maintain these conversations, we don’t have yet an agreement but we are advancing in order to reach an agreement,” Ebrard says

So, for all those establishment types so full of sound and fury at Trump’s tariff plan, it would appear it is working.

The reaction in the peso and equity markets was instant…

*  *  *

Update (1700ET): Vice President Mike Pence has confirmed that no deal with Mexico has been reached, noting that while talks are continuing, the Trump administration has asked Mexico to “significantly more,” and “at this point, tariffs will be imposed on Monday.”

Embedded video

POLITICO

@politico

Pence said Mexican delegates’ proposals to avoid the 5% tariff during Wednesday’s meeting were “not nearly enough,” but added that he was “encouraged” by today’s negotiations.

He said the next step would be a matter for Trump to consider after he’s briefed on their new proposals

*  *  *

White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders says in statement that the administration’s “position has on a Monday deadline has not changed. We are still moving forward with tariffs at this time.”

This follows reports from Bloomberg claiming that the Trump administration was considering delays in implementing the tariffs.

While the moves are not large, they erase the late day exuberance (for now)…

Until the next headline.

end
FOMC
I guess we knew something was up when we witnessed a huge miss in the ADP numbers on Wednesday.  Now we witness a huge miss for the May jobs report at only 75,000 and that number is fudged badly
(courtesy zerohedge)

Huge Payrolls Miss: Only 75,000 Jobs Added In May As Wage Growth Slows

For once, ADP was right.

With the market unsure how to trade today’s payrolls number, with both a very strong and a very poor report likely to spark selling, we just got the verdict: at only 75,000 jobs created in May…

… this was not only the worst print since the shocking 56,000 February report, but also 100,000 below the consensus number of 175,000. It was also below the lowest Wall Street forecast, and 4-sigma below consensus as not  one of the 77 Wall Street analysts guessed a lower number, confirming broader economic weakness and boosting calls for a rate cut as President Trump’s trade wars hit the US economy.

The two-month revision subtracted a total of 75,000 jobs, as March was revised down from +189,000 to +153,000, and the change for April was revised down from +263,000 to +224,000, making it a net zero for the month and suggesting some serious deceleration in the labor market amid the trade war.

The jobs market slowdown is becoming increasingly clearer: monthly job gains have now averaged 164,000 in 2019, compared with an average gain of 223,000 per month in 2018. The 3-month average of jobs growth declined to 151k in May, the fifth sequential slowing and the smallest gain in 20 months. The post-recession average is 175k, so growth is back below a long-term trend according to Reuters’ Jeoff Hall.

Looking at today’s report, private payrolls added 90,000 and government dropped 15,000 amid declines in state and local education; broad-based weakness spans construction (+4,000), manufacturing (+3,000), retail (-7,600), health care and social assistance (+24,000, least in more than a year).

Adding to the slowdown, average hourly earnings also missed forecasts with just a 0.2% monthly gain (below the 0.3% expected) and a 3.1% annual rise, below the 3.2% consensus, and the smallest since September; production and nonsupervisory wages increase 3.4% for a fifth month.

Confirming that when it rains it pours, not only did wage growth slowdown, but average weekly hours remained unchanged at 34.4,missing expectations of a rebound to the average recent print of 34.5.

While of secondary importance these days, the unemployment rate held at 49-year low of 3.6% amid slight gains in both employed and unemployed count in household survey. While white and hispanic unemployment was flat, black unemployment dipped to 6.2% in May.

Separately, the underemployment rate fell to 7.1% as involuntary part-time workers drop 299,000, while participation holds steady.

Looking at the breakdown in May jobs:

  • Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services and in health care.
  • Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up over the month (+33,000) and has increased by 498,000 over the past 12 months.
  • Employment in health care continued its upward trend in May (+16,000). The industry has added 391,000 jobs over the past 12 months.
  • Construction employment changed little in May (+4,000), following an increase of 30,000 in April. The industry has added 215,000 jobs over the past 12 months.
  • Employment showed little change in May in other major industries, including mining, manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, and government.

Verdict? A July rate cut is now virtually assured with the market pricing in 71% odds of a cut in the next FOMC meeting… and a 37% probability as soon as June.

So will the Fed cut in two weeks?  According to head of US econ research at Renaissance, Neill Dutta, “I don’t think it is enough for them to cut in June, but the economy has been slowing and that is showing up in the jobs market. I think it solidifies market pricing.”

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Despite the jobs report being fudged to a high degree, we will have some pretty bad indicators that something is wrong.  Today;s report shows full time jobs tumbling to its lowest level in one year

.(courtesy zerohedge)

Full-Time Jobs Tumble To Lowest Since October 2018

Just in case traders – and the Fed – needed one more indication of how acute the labor slowdown has become, in addition to today’s dismal 75K jobs print of course which the market took great delight in as it now means there is a virtual lock on a July (if not June) rate cut, look no further than the breakdown of full and part-time jobs.

According to the BLS, in May the number of full time jobs declined to 129,695K, a drop of 83K for the month and the third consecutive decline. In fact, for the first 5 months of 2019, a total of 218K full-time jobs have been lost, with May’s number the lowest since October’s 129,225K.

Meanwhile, “offsetting” this decline in high-paying, full-time jobs is the increase in part-time jobs, which in May rose by 66K to 26,981K, which brings the total to the highest level since December.

Of course, with stocks now fully in the “terrible news is great new” camp, the accelerating slide into a US recession is just what the (Fed) doctor (actually lawyer) ordered.

 

LATE AFTERNOON TRADING

 

ii)Market data/

consumer credit continues t jump.  this time it was mostly the revolving credit or credit card debt that increased the most.  Non revolving or auto/student loans remained relatively soft.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Consumer Credit Jumps The Most Since November As Credit Card Debt Soars

One month after an unexpectedly poor March consumer credit print, when just $10.3 billion (since revised to $11 billion) in revolving and non-revolving debt was created to fund another month of US purchases on credit, moments ago the Fed reported that in April, things went back to normal, as total consumer credit jumped by $17.5 billion, more than the $13 billion expected and the most since November’s $21.7 billion…

… thanks to a surge in credit card debt as the latest revolving credit print was a whopping $7 billion injection, up from a draw of $2 billion in March, and not only more than all the credit card debt issued in the first three months of the year but the highest since last November.

 

Meanwhile, as credit card debt soared, nonrevolving credit – auto and student loans – posted a surprisingly soft print, with only $10.5 billion in new debt created. This was $2.5 billion below last month’s print, and the lowest since June 2018.

 

And while April’s sharp rebound in credit card use may ease concerns about the financial stability and propensity of the US consumer to spend, one place where there were no surprises, was in the total amount of student and auto loans: here as expected, both numbers hit fresh all time highs with a record $1.6 trillion in student loans outstanding, a whopping increase of $30 billion in the quarter, while auto debt also hit a new all time high of $1.16 trillion, an increase of $8.3 billion in the quarter.

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iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

An extremely important commentary for Jeffrey Snider of Alhambra.  He too is one smart cookie.  He follows the Euro dollar futures which is a huge mega trillion market for interest rate bets.  What the Euro dollar futures are telling us is that rates are suddenly heading southbound and we will experience NIRP and/or ZIRP.   We are heading for a huge depression.

 

a must read…

(courtesy Jeffrey Snider)

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Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog

(courtesy Greg Hunter)

Steele Cuts Deal to Talk, Mexico Blinks on Border, Economic Update

By Greg Hunter On June 7, 2019

The biggest news in the Trump/Russia collusion hoax is Christopher Steele, the former MI6 British spy, has cut a deal to testify. Did Steele get immunity? He was the architect of the phony “Trump Dossier” used in an attempted frame job of President Trump. It was also used to get fraudulent approval to spy on Trump, his campaign and Administration. The Dossier is at the center of all the Trump troubles–and it was paid for by Hillary Clinton. This means Hillary Clinton is also at the center of the Russia collusion hoax against President Trump.

President Trump is imposing tariffs on Mexico because of its lack of help controlling the masses traveling through their country to enter the USA. Mexico asked for an emergency meeting with Trump officials to stop the tariffs from taking place on Monday. Mexico says it is freezing bank accounts of traffickers and sending 6,000 troops to the southern border of Mexico to stop the flows as a show of good faith. No deal has been worked out yet. Did Mexico blink? Yep.

Fed Head Jerome Powell is signaling a rate cut is on the way. He claims it’s because of trade wars, but he knows it’s really because the economy is slowing down—way down. There is also talk at the Fed about bringing back QE, good old fashion money printing, if the economy slips into recession. Is there any wonder why gold is jumping in price?

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

 

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WELL THAT ABOUT DOES IT FOR TONIGHT

I WILL SEE YOU MONDAY NIGHT.

HARVEY

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