GOLD: $1345.15 DOWN $1,85 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)
Silver: $14.98 DOWN 3 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)//
Closing access prices:
Gold : $1360.50
JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)
today RECEIVING 8/19
CONTRACT: JUNE 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,346.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/18/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 06/20/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 7
661 C JP MORGAN 8
737 C ADVANTAGE 19 4
TOTAL: 19 19
MONTH TO DATE: 2,133
I wrote the following in yesterday’s commentary;
“TOMORROW IS THE BIG FOMC MEETING. DRAGHI PREEMPTED POWELL TODAY BY UNLEASHING POSSIBLE QE IN EUROPE
HERE ARE THE KEY PRICES OF GOLD AND SILVER TO WATCH FOR:
GOLD: $1350. THIS LEVEL IS IMPORTANT FOR THE BANKERS AND NO DOUBT HUGE DERIVATIVE TRADES WERE INITIATED HERE. THE BANKERS WILL DEFEND THEIR LIVES AT THIS LEVEL. GOLD HAS BEEN BEATEN BACK AT LEAST 6 TIMES ONCE GOLD PIERCED $1350. (check!/price surpassed)
SILVER: $15.06. MANY ARE COMMENTING ON $15.00 BUT THE REAL PRICE TO WATCH IS $15.06 AS THIS WAS THE PRICE THAT SILVER WAS BEATEN BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW 14 DOLLAR LEVEL. A PIERCING OF 15.06 WILL CREATE NIGHTMARE FOR OUR BANKERS. (check!!price surpassed)
STAY TUNED FOR TOMORROW..IT WILL BE A BIG DAY.”
it sure was!!!..
Now we watch for the banking derivatives on gold and silver to blow up!
NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR JUNE CONTRACT: 19 NOTICE(S) FOR 1900 OZ (0.3701 tonnes)
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR: 2133 NOTICES FOR 213,300 OZ (6.6345 TONNES)
38 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 190,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month: 391 for 1955,000 oz
Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE : $ 9111 UP 28
Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 9116 UP 32
Let us have a look at the data for today
IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE A HUMONGOUS SIZED 6469 CONTRACTS FROM 232,997 UP TO 239,466 ACCOMPANYING THE 18 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.( LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED FOR GOLD . HOWEVER WE ARE WITNESSING A RISE IN SPREADING ACCUMULATION BY THE BANKERS IN SILVER)..TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018 RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.
WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S. WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,
0 FOR JUNE, 1300 FOR JULY. 0 FOR AUGUST, 0 FOR SEPT, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 1300 CONTRACTS.
WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1330 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1300 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 6.50 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANYING:
1.THE 18 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND
2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:
JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);
FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ
FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ
FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION OZ S
FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.
FOR NOV: A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING AND
21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.
5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.
2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:
27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.
3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.
18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.
2.960 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JUNE:
33,829 CONTRACTS (FOR 13 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 33,829 CONTRACTS) OR 169.145 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2602 CONTRACTS OR 13.01 MILLION OZ/DAY)
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JUNE: 169.145 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 24.16% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)* JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.
ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 1039.90 MILLION OZ.
JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS: 217.455. MILLION OZ
FEB 2019 TOTALS: 147.4 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 207.835 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 182.87 MILLION OZ.
MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 136.55 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 6469, WITH THE 18 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1300 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS WILL RESUME THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES FOR SILVER ONCE THE JUNE CONTRACT COMMENCES IN EARNEST….
TODAY WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED: 8128 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
i.e 1300 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 6469 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.98 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!!
In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.199 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 171% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 38 NOTICE(S) FOR 190,000 OZ OF SILVER
IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.
AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.
ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:
- HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018 (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ ) FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT: A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ JANUARY AT 5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019: 2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/ APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY: 18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.960 MILLION OZ//
- HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018: 244,196 CONTRACTS, WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
- HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
- RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ
AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)
WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING: WE NO DOUBT HAD VERY STRONG ACTIVITY OF SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN SILVER TODAY AS TOTAL OI ROSE SHARPLY WITH THE GOOD GAIN OF 18 CENTS.
FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.
AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:
“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCHED TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.
HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.
AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR 2295 CONTRACTS, TO 525,636 WITH THE STRONG $7.60 PRICING GAIN WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS STOPPED AND THESE SPREADERS HAVE ALREADY MORPHED INTO SILVER AND THEY ARE INTO THE ACCUMULATION PHASE OF THEIR OPERATION. THUS THE GAIN IN OI IS REAL AS INVESTORS ARE POURING INTO THE GOLD SECTOR
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7659 CONTRACTS:
APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS, AUGUST 2019: 8495 CONTRACTS, DEC> 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 525,636. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,790 CONTRACTS: 2295 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 8495 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN OF 10,790 CONTRACTS OR 1,079,000 OZ OR 33.56 TONNES. YESTERDAY WE HAD A GOOD GAIN OF $7.60 IN GOLD TRADING….AND WITH THAT REASONABLE GAIN IN PRICE, WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 33.56 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING COPIOUS SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE : 117,778 CONTRACTS OR 11,777,800 oz OR 366.33 TONNES (13 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9059 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAYS IN TONNES: 366.33 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 366.33/3550 x 100% TONNES =10.31% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE: 2,617.81 TONNES
JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; 531.20 TONNES
FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 344.36 TONNES
MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 497.16 TONNES
APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE: 456.10 TONNES
MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE: 449.10 TONNES
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
Result: A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2295 WITH THE PRICING GAIN THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK ON YESTERDAY($7.60)) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 8495 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 8495 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 10,790 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
8495 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2295 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 33.56 TONNES). ..AND THIS INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GOOD GAIN IN PRICE OF $7.60 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE HAD ZERO PRESENCE OF SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN GOLD ///TODAY/
we had: 19 notice(s) filed upon for 1,900 oz of gold at the comex.
With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES
TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD. IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY
WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY:
NO CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SILVER SLV:
/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.07 MILLION OZ.
OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 6469 CONTRACTS from 232,997 UP TO 239,466 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 1 1/3 YEARS AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER AND STOPPED THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS IN GOLD
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
FOR JUNE 0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 1300 CONTRACTS FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1300 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 6469 CONTRACTS TO THE 1300 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC GAIN OF 7769 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 38.85MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.. A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., 7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. 21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY, 27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL 18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY AND NOW 2.960 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE.
RESULT: A HUGE INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 18 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1300 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.
BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL
2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
I)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.65 POINTS OR 0.96% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 703.37 POINTS OR 2.56% /The Nikkei closed UP 361.16 POINTS OR 1.72%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.21
/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.9043 /Oil UP TO 3.83 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.72 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9243 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9068 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP RAISED RATES TO 25%
3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3 China/Chinese affairs
This is not good for China as Apple now plans to shift up to 30% of production outside of China. The tariffs wars are certainly having their effect
Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer notes the comments from the CEO of Germany’s 2nd largest bank: “In a few years we will notice that the ECB experiment was a historical mistake”
Tensions are boiling with the MIn BOT issue
( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
The Turkish lira plummets as Trump and allies are ready to impose sanctions on a crippled Turkey economy. They are going to target the big Turkish companies with sanctions against doing business with the west.
this is deadly..
6. GLOBAL ISSUES
Strange: the Loonie spikes higher after Cdn core inflation soars to 10 yr highs. The view is that the North is emerging from its growth slowdown…I beg to differ..
7. OIL ISSUES
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. PHYSICAL MARKETS
i)Bill Murphy explains the significance of $1350 gold
( Bill Murphy/GATA/Reluctant Preppers)
ii)GOOD NEWS!! Robert Labourne our resident expert on BIS affairs reports a huge decline in gold activity via gold swaps. I guess the reason is the lack of gold.
( Robert Lambourne/GATA)
iv)Chris Marcus is interviewing me:
10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)
a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA
iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES
a) Let us see if Michael Every is right as Powell might have to explain why he is cutting rates just like Draghi is scheduled to do.
( Michael Every/Rabobank)
b)Illinois farming is now in a mess as farmers have given up on planting corn
( Mac Slavo/SHFTPlan.com)
c)Interesting: 25% of Americans are now :”worse off” than they were before the great recession. Kind of kills the Trump narrative that the economy is booming
( Mac Slavo)
d).My goodness: they finally agree on something…a deal on Trump border funding
A democrat Congressman states that Mueller will testify. I extremely doubt it. It will be far worse for the democrats.
Let us head over to the comex:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 2295 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 525,636 WITH THE GOOD RISE OF $7.60 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 8495 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:
0 FOR JUNE ’19: 0 CONTRACTS , AUG; 8495 CONTRACTS: DEC: 0 AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 8495 CONTRACTS.
THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST 48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 10,790 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 8495 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A FAIR SIZED 2295 COMEX CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 10,790 CONTRACTS OR 1,079,000 OZ OR 33.56 TONNES.
We are now in the active contract month of JUNE and here the open interest stands at 195 CONTRACTS as we LOST 274 contracts. We had 301 notices filed yesterday so we gained 27 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 2700 oz of gold that will stand for delivery as there appears to be some gold at the comex so they will now try their luck on finding the fast vanishing supplies of physical gold over here. The next contract month is the non active month of July and here the OI fell by 51 contracts down to 1287 contracts. The next big active month for deliverable gold is August and here the OI FELL by a TINY 44 contracts DOWN to 387,852.
TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:
WE HAD 19 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 1,900 OZ. (0.3701 TONNES)
And now for the wild silver comex results.
Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 6469 CONTRACTS FROM 232,997 UP TO 239,466 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018 AT 244,196 CONTRACTS. AND TODAY’S STRONG OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 18 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.
WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE. HERE WE HAVE 71 OPEN INTEREST STAND FOR DELIVERY WITH A LOSS OF 133 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 40 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE LOST 93 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 465,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS ACCEPTING A FIAT BONUS FOR THEIR EXHAUSTIVE EFFORT IN TRYING TO OBTAIN METAL..THERE WAS A BIG CHANGE FROM THE PRELIMINARY TO FINAL NUMBERS FOR THE FRONT JUNE CONTRACT MONTH. ORIGINALLY WE HAD GAINED 75 CONTRACTS STANDING AND NOW WE LOST 93 CONTRACTS. SILVER MUST BE EXTREMELY SCARCE AT THE COMEX.!!!!!!
THE NEXT MONTH AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY. HERE THE OI FELL BY 3924 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 117,913. WE GAINED 18 CONTRACTS OF OI FOR AUGUST TO STAND AT 840. THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 9499 CONTRACTS UP TO 74,078 CONTRACTS.
TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:
We, today, had 38 notice(s) filed for 190,000 OZ for the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver
Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 207,061 CONTRACTS
CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 388,922 contracts
INITIAL standings for JUNE/GOLD
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz||nil oz|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz||
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz||
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz||
|No of oz served (contracts) today||
|No of oz to be served (notices)||
|Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month||
|Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month||NIL oz|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month||xxx oz|
we had 0 dealer entry:
We had 0 kilobar entries
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 0 deposit into the customer account
i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz
ii) Into Everybody else: nil oz
total gold deposits: nil oz
very little gold arrives from outside/ no amount arrived today
we had 1 gold withdrawal from the customer account:
i) Out of Delaware: 295.584 oz
total gold withdrawals; 295.584 oz oz
FOR THE JUNE 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 19 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 8 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2133) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE. (195 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (19 x 100 oz per contract) equals 230,900 OZ OR 7.182 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE/2019 contract month:
No of notices served (2133 x 100 oz) + (195)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (19 x 100 oz )which equals 230,900 oz standing OR 7.182 TONNES in this active delivery month of JUNE.
We GAINED 27 contracts or an additional 2700 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. Somebody was in need of physical gold badly.!!
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! WE HAVE ONLY 10.08 TONNES OF REGISTERED ( GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 7.182 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.
OF OPEN INTERESTS FOR THE UPCOMING JUNE 2019 CONTRACT VS JUNE 2018
FOR THE INITIAL JUNE 2018 CONTRACT WE HAD A HUGE 32.152 TONNES STAND. (VS 7.182 TONNES TODAY/JUNE 2019)
HOWEVER BY MONTH’S END ONLY 21.56 TONNES EVENTUALLY STOOD AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. AS YOU CAN SEE, THE CROOKS ARE FOLLOWING THE SAME FORMAT OF MORPHING VS LAST YEAR AS ONLY GOLD VAPOUR SEEMS TO BE PHYSICALLY PRESENT AT THE COMEX AND LONGS MUST TRY THEIR LUCK IN LONDON.
IN THE LAST 33 MONTHS 118 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
And now for silver
AND NOW THE DELIVERY MONTH OF June
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory||NIL oz|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory||
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory||
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory||
|No of oz served today (contracts)||
|No of oz to be served (notices)||
|Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)||391 contracts
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month||NIL oz|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month|
we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things
total dealer deposits: NIL oz
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 2 deposits into the customer account
into JPMorgan: 533,517.550 oz
ii)into CNT: 533,517.550 oz
*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.
JPMorgan now has 152.90 million oz of total silver inventory or 50.29% of all official comex silver. (152.9 million/304.04 million
total customer deposits today: 1,131,756.050 oz
i) out of brinks: 6942.410 oz
ii) Out of CNT 597,810.107 oz
iii) Out of Loomis: 80,017.600 oz
we had 0 adjustments :
total dealer silver: 87.119 million
total dealer + customer silver: 304.040 million oz
The total number of notices filed today for the JUNE 2019. contract month is represented by 38 contract(s) FOR 190,000 oz
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 391 x 5,000 oz = 1,955,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE. (71) and the number of notices served upon today (38 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JUNE/2019 contract month: 391(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE( 71) -number of notices served upon today (38)x 5000 oz equals 2,120,000 oz of silver standing for the JN contract month.
WE LOST 93 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 465,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS MORPHED INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY ALSO ACCEPTING A FIAT BONUS. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME EVER THAT I CAN RECALL SEEING A MASSIVE CHANGE IN THE FRONT MONTH PRELIMINARY OI NUMBER TO THE FINAL NUMBER. IT MEANS THAT THE GUYS STANDING FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND JUST GAVE UP AND THEY WILL TRY THEIR LUCK OVER IN LONDON..
TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:
We, today, had 38 notice(s) filed for 190,000 OZfor the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver
TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 85,123 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation
CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 132,072 CONTRACTS..(we no doubt had considerable spreading activity as they are now starting to accumulate in silver)
YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 132,072 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 660 million OZ 94.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER
COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
NPV for Sprott
1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.77% (June 19/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.97% to NAV (june 19/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.77%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/
3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):
NAV 13.43 TRADING 12.80/DISCOUNT 4.69
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/
JUNE 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONES
JUNE 18/JUNE 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES
JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES
JUNE 14/ WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES
june 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.70 TONNES
JUNE 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES
JUNE 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.65 CENTS TODAY: A TINY CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .24 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES
JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.42 TONNES
june 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES
jUNE 6/WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES
JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $6.00 TODAY/STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES
JUNE 4/WITH GOLD UP 0.85 TODAY: A MONSTROUS PAPER GAIN OF 16.44 TONNES/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.65 TONNES
JUNE 3/WITH GOLD UP $17.50 TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE, A DEPOSIT OF 2.35 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//
MAY 31/WITH GOLD UP $17.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES
MAY 30: WI6H GOLD UP $6.40 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES
MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES
MAY 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES
MAY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.81 TONNES
MAY 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY: A STRANGE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FORM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738,81 TONNES
MAY 22//WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: WE HAD A GOOD 1.52 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 739.69 TONNES
MAY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.65 TODAY: A SURPRISE 2.00 TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD GOLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.17 TONNES
MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 A HUGE 2.96 TONNE DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.17 TONNES
MAY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES
MAY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.50: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.23 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES
MAY 15/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES
MAY 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45 TODAY: STRANGE!! THE CROOKS DECIDED TO DEPOSIT A HUGE 3.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES
MAY 13/ WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $15.40 TODAY: STRANGE! A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.41 TONNES OF GOLD (TO TAME GOLD’S RISE TODAY)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES
MAY 10 WITH GOLD UP $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES
MAY 9//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES
MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES
MAY 7/ WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES
MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES
MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $9.35 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.52
MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES
MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES
JUNE 19/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 764.10 tonnes
*IN LAST 613 TRADING DAYS: 169.66 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 513 TRADING DAYS: A NET 4.03TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD INVENTORY.
Now the SLV Inventory/
JUNE 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 18 WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 13/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 12/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.413 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 11/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//
june 7/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 12 CENTS, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//
jUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 9 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZE DEPOSIT OF 630,087 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 5/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.396 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.434 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 4/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 3/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//
MAY 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 422,000 OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ/
May 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ///
MAY 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//
MAY 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//
MAY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ/
MAY 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//
MAY 22/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 311.616 MILLION OZ
MAY 21: WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//
MAY 20/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ
MAY 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.185 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY VAULTS:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ//
MAY 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ//
MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.031 MILLION OZ// THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ.
MAY 14/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/
MAY 13//WITH SILVE5 DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ…
MAY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///
MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//
MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///
MAY 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//
MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 891,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/
MAY 3//WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 843,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/TOTAL INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.691 MILLION OZ//
MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 13 CENTS, MIRACUOUSLY THE AUTHORITIES ADD 2.869 MILLION OZ OF SILVER BACK INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.848 MILLION OZ//
MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ////
Inventory 319.070 MILLION OZ
LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:
THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE
6 Month MM GOFO 2.09/ and libor 6 month duration 2.30
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:
G0LD LENDING RATE: + .21
12 Month MM GOFO
LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.26
GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE
GOLD LENDING RATE = +.20
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….
Euro/USA 1.1206 UP .0008 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED
USA/JAPAN YEN 108.40 DOWN 0.183 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…
GBP/USA 1.2584 UP 0.0018 (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//
USA/CAN 1.3378 UP .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)
Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1206 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 27.65 POINTS OR 0.96%
//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 703.37 POINTS OR 2.56%
/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1,21%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and Asia
EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 703.37 POINTS OR 2.56%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.65 POINTS OR 0.96%
Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 1.21%
Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 361.16 POINTS OR 1.72%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1343.25
Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.08% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from YESTERDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%.
The 30 yr bond yield 2.56 UP 1 IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 97.55 DOWN 9 CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.
This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.55% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.14% DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.40%//UP 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.11 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 171 points higher than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES –.29% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//
THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.40% AND NOW ABOVE THE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1218 UP .0020 or 20 basis points
USA/Japan: 108.36 DOWN .222 OR YEN UP 22 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2630 UP .0065 POUND UP 65 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar UP 23 basis points to 1.3350
The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9036 0N SHORE (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: 6.9028 (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS
TURKISH LIRA: 5.8328 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.14%
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.09 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.57 UP 2 in basis points on the day
Your closing USA dollar index, 97.40 UP 24 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 39.50 0.53%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 23.22 POINTS OR .19%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 8,72 POINTS 0.16%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 9.50 POINTS or 0.10%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 87.60 POINTS OR 0.41%
WTI Oil price; 53.65 12:00 PM EST
Brent Oil: 62.01 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN / ROUBLE RISES: 63.86 THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.19 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 19 BASIS PTS)
TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO –.29 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST
This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM
Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 52.27//
BRENT : 61.32
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.02… VERY DEADLY//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.53..VERY DEADLY/
EURO/USA 1.1233 (UP 35 BASIS POINTS)
USA/JAPANESE YEN:108,12 DOWN .463 (YEN UP 46 BASIS POINTS/..
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.26 DOWN 39 cent(s)/
The British pound at 4 pm Britain Pound/USA:1.2649 UP 83 POINTS
the Turkish lira close: 5.8017
the Russian rouble 63.80 UP 0.25 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 25 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar: 1.3295 UP 79 BASIS Pts
USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9036 (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./
USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8951 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/
German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.29%
The Dow closed UP 38.46 POINTS OR 0.15%
NASDAQ closed UP 33.44 POINTS OR 0.42%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.33 CLOSED DOWN .82
LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.388%//libor dropping like a stone
And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY//
Dovish Fed Sparks Safe-Haven Scramble For Bonds & Bullion As Traders Dump Dollar
Powell: “There was not much support for cutting rates now at this meeting. It would be better to see more before moving.”
How much moar will the market demand now?
Just how dovish was it? While 8 Fed members now see at least one cut in 2019, the median rate expectation did not change (not that dovish)…
But 2020 median rate expectations did continue to slide…
US equity markets trod water for most of the day until the FOMC statement, and even then did not surge as so many had hoped on Powell’s dovishness…
Stocks overall ended higher on the day… (thanks to a panic bid around 1540ET)
The S&P is less than 1% from record highs
Thanks to a huge buying program that suddenly appeared…
Defensive stocks soared on the Fed statement and the initial cyclical spike faded…
S&P Utilities closed at a record high.
Financials slumped into the red after The Fed…
Bonds and stocks keep diverging further…
Treasury yields plunged on the Fed statement…(harvey: deadly)
With 10Y testing yesterday’s cycle spike lows with a 2.01% handle…
And 2Y Yields crashed over 10bps to its lowest since Nov 2017…
Inflation Breakevens jumped after The Fed statement…
The Dollar tumbled on the Fed Statement
Cryptos trod water today (with Bitcoin hovering around $9100)…
Commodities all rallied on the Fed statement…
Investors rushed into gold as the dovish Fed statement struck, pushing the precious metal back above $1350 once again…
But it appeared the machines were working hard
Finally, we note that this is only the 2nd time in Powell’s 11 meetings that the S&P closed green on FOMC day…
As Fed rate-cut expectations accelerate lower…
And The National Financial Conditions Index shows that things are already about as loose as can be, lower than before the 2008 financial crisis.
And that’s before The Fed cuts. As Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise noted,John Williams suggested a few weeks ago that the Fed wouldn’t be beholden to bond markets. I guess he was wrong.
The ultimate justification for the change in tune looks to be a downgrade to the inflation profile, even though just six weeks ago the inflation shortfall was deemed to be “transitory.” It’s hard to escape the notion that the Fed was dragged into this shift by market pricing; it seems as if bond traders are running policy now.
i) Market trading/ FOMC
Fed Scraps `Patient’ Rate Approach in Prelude to Potential CutBy
The Federal Reserve indicated a readiness to cut interest rates for the first time in more than a decade to sustain a near-record U.S. economic expansion, citing “uncertainties” in their outlook.
While Chairman Jerome Powell and fellow policy makers left their key rate in a range of 2.25% to 2.5% on Wednesday, they dropped a reference in their statement to being “patient” on borrowing costs and forecast a larger miss of their 2% inflation target this year.
While inflation near the goal and a strong labor market are the most likely outcomes, “uncertainties about this outlook have increased,’’ the Federal Open Market Committee said in the statement following a two-day meeting in Washington. “In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”
The FOMC vote was not unanimous, with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard dissenting in favor of a quarter-point rate cut. His vote marked the first dissent of Powell’s tenure as chairman.
Policy makers were starkly divided on the path for policy. Eight of 17 pencilled in a reduction by the end of the year as another eight saw no change and one forecast a hike, according to updated quarterly forecasts.
In the statement, officials downgraded their assessment of economic activity to a “moderate” rate from “solid” at their last gathering.
The pivot toward easier monetary policy shows the Fed swinging closer to the view of most investors that President Donald Trump’s trade war is slowing the economy’s momentum and that rates are too restrictive given sluggish inflation.
The change in tone follows attacks on the Fed by Trump for not doing more to bolster the economy and Tuesday’s report by Bloomberg News that the president asked White House lawyers earlier this year to explore his options for demoting Powell from the chairmanship.
That risks casting a political shadow over whatever policy decision the Fed makes, though Powell and his colleagues say they’re focusing only on the economic goals Congress gave them.
Officials noted that “growth of household spending appears to have picked up from earlier in the year” and that indicators of business fixed investment “have been soft.” They repeated that the labor market “remains strong.”
Investors have been betting the Fed will reduce rates at its next meeting in late July, though a majority of economists surveyed earlier this month don’t expect a move until December. Yields on 10-year Treasuries have fallen to the lowest since 2017. The hope of fresh stimulus has sent U.S. stocks to near a record.
Recent U.S. economic data have been mixed. Consumer spending held up in May but job gains were disappointing, and some gauges of business sentiment have cooled on uncertainty around the outlook for trade. The Fed remains bedevilled by inflation continuing to undershoot the central bank’s 2% target despite unemployment being at a 49-year low.
Central bankers are likely hoping for greater clarity over Trump’s trade war with China. Stocks jumped on Tuesday after the president said he would meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping at next week’s Group of 20 summit in Japan.
The Fed, which raised interest rates four times last year and as recently as December projected further hikes in 2019, isn’t alone in shifting tack. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Tuesday paved the wayfor a rate cut, and central banks in Australia, India and Russia have lowered borrowing costs this month.
- The median projection for 2019 GDP growth was unchanged at 2.1% and revised up by a tenth of a point to 2% in 2020. The 2021 estimate was held at 1.8%.
- The median unemployment rate forecasts 2019-21 were all lowered by a tenth of a point. Officials see 3.6% this year rising to 3.7% next year and 3.8% in 2021.
- Officials see the jobless rate most consistent with full employment in the long run at 4.2%, versus 4.3% in March.
- Officials cut estimates for their preferred inflation gauge. The personal consumption expenditures price index is expected to increase just 1.5% in 2019, down from a 1.8% projection in March. By 2020, the main and core gauges are both projected to rise 1.9%, below the target.
— With assistance by Chris Middleton
Fed Hints At July Cut As Expected, Drops “Patient” Language, Says “Outlook Uncertainty” Has Increased
With stocks 1% away from record highs and bond yields (and the curve) tumbling as market expectations for multiple rate-cuts surge, Fed Chair Powell is going to have to thread a very fine needle today – shifting Fed indications towards the market’s view without panicking markets over “what he knows that we don’t.” And of course, Trump will be watching closely…
Offering Powell some room for maneuver is the fact that June rate-cut expectations are around 23%, but July expectations are over 80%, so the dots better adjust soon.
And the market is pricing in two cuts in 2019 and 3 by the end of 2020, though we note that the last two days have seen a significantly hawkish shift in the 2019 rate expectations…
And considering that financial conditions are back near record easiness, what will The Fed cutting rates actually achieve other than to maintain equity prices that have levitated on this hype?
Survey-based inflation expectations are at record lows and market-based inflation expectations are crashing.
So, what will Powell do?
Bloomberg Chief U.S. Economist Carl Riccadonna:
“The markets are leaning hard in favor of monetary-policy easing. Fed officials are no doubt disconcerted by recent signs of dimming global- and domestic-growth prospects, cooler inflation and mounting evidence of trade-war casualties. Still, we believe they will avoid fully pivoting from `patient’ to proactive until there is more data at hand.”
And here is what he did…
- Fed keeps rates unchanged but removes reference to being “patient” on rates while adding that “uncertainties” around its outlook have increased, even if did not warn of “material downside risks” to outlook.
- The FOMC says it will “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion” and “closely monitor” incoming information, language that echoes Powell’s recent speech but is new to the statement.
The key sentence was the following:
… uncertainties about this outlook have increased. In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective
And yet it wasn’t as dovish as some had expected, with the Fed avoiding to mention “material downside risk to the outlook.“
The Dot Plot adjusted dramatically lower…
- For 2019, 8 Fed officials see lower rates with 7 of them seeing 2 cuts this year (and 1 seeing one cut). At the same time 8 see unchanged rates and 1 sees a rate hike.
- The breakdown from the above dot plot is as follows:
- 2019 2.375% (range 1.875% to 2.625%); prior 2.375%
- 2020 2.125% (range 1.875% to 3.125%); prior 2.625%
- 2021 2.375% (range 1.875% to 3.125%); prior 2.625%
- Longer Run 2.5% (range 2.375% to 3.250%); prior 2.75%
- For 2020, one additional official joins the cut camp, shifting the median down… but in 2020, the median moves back to 2.4%. The long-run neutral rate comes down to 2.5% from 2.8%, a major move.
Notably – as the chart above shows – the Median dot for 2019 did not drop to a cut!
Bloomberg’s Matthew Boesler notes that:
“Interesting to see Fed officials downgrade their inflation projections even as they upgrade GDP growth and unemployment expectations and project a shallower rate path, which suggests even more skepticism about the Phillips curve relationship than before.”
Looking at the projections, a similar blurry picture emerges:
Longer-run median unemployment rate 4.2% compares to previous forecast of 4.3% at March 20, 2019 meeting
- 2019 median jobless rate at 3.6% vs 3.7%
- 2020 median jobless rate at 3.7% vs 3.8%
- 2021 median jobless rate at 3.8% vs 3.9%
Longer-run real GDP median projection of 1.9% compares to previous forecast of 1.9%
- 2019 median GDP growth 2.1% vs 2.1%
- 2020 median GDP growth 2.0% vs 1.9%
- 2021 median GDP growth 1.8% vs 1.8%
Longer run PCE inflation median at 2.0% compares to previous forecast of 2.0%
- 2019 median core PCE inflation 1.8% vs 2.0%
- 2020 median core PCE inflation 1.9% vs 2.0%
- 2021 median core PCE inflation 2.0% vs 2.0%
Longer run Fed funds median at 2.5% compares to previous forecast of 2.8%
- 2019 median Fed funds 2.4% vs 2.4%
- 2020 median Fed funds 2.1% vs 2.6%
- 2021 median Fed funds 2.4% vs 2.6%
Full Redline below:
* * *
Finally,what happens next?
As Deutsche strategist Alan Ruskin pointed out, since Powell took over the leadership at the Fed in February 2018, risky assets have tended to trade down on FOMC decision days. The S&P 500 declined on the day of nine of the past 10 meetings presided by Powell, with a median drop of 0.29%.
The only exception was in January when the Fed, in a dramatic flip-flop, announced that it’s done with rate hikes.
And as Powell hints at rate-cuts, we note two things…
So just when he thinks he will preempt the recession, the lagged impact of the lowest starting point for a rate-cut cycle will be unable to avoid a recession slapping into the US economy (and being ignored by US stocks).
Dollar, Bond Yields, & Bank Stocks Tumble After ‘Dovish’ Fed Statement
Not priced in…
The Fed shifted its dot plot notably lower – though 2019 median remains unch – and that has sent bond yields and the dollar careening lower….
Dollar dumped to one-week lows…
10Y Yields plunged to yesterday’s intraday spike lows…
The major stock indices are higher but not holding kneejerk gains…
And bank stocks have turned red…
As rate-cut expectations for 2019 accelerated…
And July rate-cut expectations are now at 100%!!
iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES
Let us see if Michael Every is right as Powell might have to explain why he is cutting rates just like Draghi is scheduled to do.
(courtesy Michael Every/Rabobank)
“Today The Fed Will Explain Why They Are About To Cut Rates When Unemployment Is So Low”
Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank
Great Bu’s Up
Blackadder II is one of the best ever British TV comedies: forget Mr Bean and watch Rowan Atkinson as Edmund Blackadder try to connive his way through the dangerous medieval court of Queen Elizabeth I. Episode 5 (Beer) is of particular relevance today. In it, Blackadder entertains his elderly aunt and uncle, both puritans, in the hope of charming a huge inheritance from them. Yet due to a scheduling mix-up, just down the corridor courtiers have come for an evening of debauched drinking with the alcohol-intolerant Blackadder, and the first to pass out has to pay a fine of 10,000 florins – which Edmund doesn’t have. Our anti-hero sits at the dining table to entertain his tedious relatives…
Edmund: So, how are we all going, then?
Aunt: Not well. Let us discuss your inheritance.
Edmund: Ah, yes, good. Erm, a little drink, first?
Aunt: [stands] Drink?! [slaps him twice] Wicked child!!! Drink is urine for the last leper in Hell!
Edmund: Oh, no, no–this is only water. This is a house of simple purity.
[Drunk monk enters in convulsions. He rushes to the fireplace and vomits, then turns and begins to leave.]
Monk: Great booze-up, Edmund!
[very awkward, long pause]
Aunt: Do you know that man?
Edmund: [looks behind himself as though he didn’t really see] No…
Aunt: He called you `Edmund’…
Edmund: Oh, *know* *him*…oh, yes, I do.
Aunt: Then can you explain what he meant by `great booze-up’?
Edmund: [thinks … thinks … thinks … thinks … thinks … thinks … thinks] Yes, I can… My friend…is…a missionary… and… on his last visit abroad… brought back with him…the chief of a famous tribe… *His* name is Great Bu… He’s been suffering from sleeping sickness…and he has obviously just woken…because, as you heard, “Great Bu’s up”.
What, is the relevance of all this? Yesterday we heard the ECB’s Draghi explain why six months after ending QE and talking of rates going up, he is now open to rate cuts and more QE, and never mind rules that say he can’t buy more bonds. The reason for the complete U-turn? “Great Bu’s up”, basically. Yes, there was technobabble about forward guidance being enhanced by “adjust[ing] its bias and its conditionality to account for variations in the adjustment path of inflation,” which was enough to make anyone suffer from sleeping sickness. But basically, inflation is as down as ‘Bu’ is up, and so are bond yields, to below zero in fact, in new European countries at longer maturities than ever been experienced before. Mr. Draghi – you win a negative-yielding inheritance from those elderly relatives….and an attack from President Trump for allowing too much policy stimulus! This is a “Great Bu’s-t up” that drags us into even weirder places.
Of course, the ECB follow the RBA, who are not even funny because we can see the punchline coming. Their “Great Bu’s up” for another rate cut promised “sooner rather than later” is that unemployment now conveniently needs to be below 4.5%…just as the housing market slumps.
Today we are all going to hear the Fed tell their own “Great Bu’s up” to explain why they are about to cut rates when unemployment is so low; job gains are still reasonable for this stage in the cycle; key data is far from dire on the surface; and equities are close to all-time highs. Yes, they can point to the bond market. However, what “Great Bu” can the Fed offer to explain why for the past 18 months it is *them* who have been suffering from sleeping sickness? And how do they explain it was President Trump–who “twists and turns like a twisty-turny thing” to quote Edmund’s drinking opponent Lord Melchett–who was right about rates when all their models and experts were wrong? Surely it’s all coincidence that yesterday we got a news report that the White House had considered “demoting” Fed Chair Powell in February(?) In short, expect lots of po-faced technobabble, and po-faced copy-and-paste analysts will write up how reasonable it all sounds. Yet the long and the short of it is that this is, like Blackadder II, a classic farce.
It’s even more farcical when one considers Trump is twisty-turny enough that now he will be having an extended meeting Xi at the G20 after a phone call with him. Perhaps Xi, who as we are endlessly told “wants a trade deal”, is visiting North Korea’s Kim tomorrow: will he be putting in a good word on the nuclear front for Trump as a quid pro quo or co-ordinating positions vs. the US? We shall see. (NB, We still deeply remain sceptical of any real trade breakthroughs.)
Trump also managed to twist and turn enough yesterday that recent Iranian attacks on oil tankers aren’t important enough for a US counter-attack on Tehran, only holding nukes is according to Trump – you know, the things that Kim already has. So no bombing in the Middle East today at least, thankfully; but a further sign that Trump, often called dangerous by his critics, is actually more war averse than many past US presidents. (Which will no doubt be noted for future reference by those choking on US sanctions and tariffs, as we mentioned earlier this week).
In short, it’s mainly reasons for optimism in terms of key news–trade, Iran, and even the moderate Rory Stewart is the most likely challenger to Boris Johnson after the second round of the Tory leadership contest!–but nonetheless the backdrop right now is of an underlying central-bank promise of lower, and negative, rates for ever…and a race to who gets there fastest.
Perhaps central banks hope that if they promise markets enough liquidity we won’t ask probing questions about if they really know what they are doing or not or, as Blackadder does when sozzled, to point an accusatory finger saying “*I* know who you are! You are Merlin the Happy Pig!!!” Instead, they hope we will all get completely sloshed, as at the end of “Beer”, and end up in a pile singing “See the little goblin, see his little feet / And his little nosy-wose — isn’t the goblin sweet?”
The equity markets already are!
Illinois farming is now in a mess as farmers have given up onplanting
(courtesy Mac Slavo/SHFTPlan.com)
Illinois Farmers Have “Given Up” On Planting
Farmers in Illinois whose land has been thrashed by flooding have given up on planting. Instead of growing food, they decided to throw a party. And who could blame them?
The storms that have caused major flooding in Illinois have forced farmers to give up on their crops. Forecasts for even more rain also sent corn futures to a 5-year-high, bringing the food crisis ever closer to reality. Few farmers will even see a benefit from the higher prices because they can’t even get their corn planted in the ground.
Dozens of corn farmers and those who sell them seed, chemicals, and equipment gathered on Thursday at the restaurant in Deer Grove, Illinois, after heavy rains caused unprecedented delays in planting this year and contributed to record floods across the central United States, according to a report by Reuters. Rather than focus on the abysmal farming year, they decided to party instead.
The storms have left millions of acres unseeded in the $51 billion U.S. corn market and put crops that were planted late at a greater risk for damage from severe weather during the growing season. Together, the problems heap more pain on a farm sectorthat has suffered from years of low crop prices and a U.S.-China trade war that is slowing agricultural exports.
James McCune, a farmer from Mineral, Illinois, was unable to plant 85% of his intended corn acres and wanted to commiserate with his fellow farmers by hosting the “Prevent Plant Party” at The Happy Spot. He invited them to swap stories while tucking into fried chicken and a keg of beer in Deer Grove, a village of about 50 people located 120 miles (193 km) west of Chicago. –Reuters
Regardless of the news, it isn’t looking good for farmers in America. Already dealing with the political ramifications of the trade war, bankruptcies and suicides at record levels, farmers are now devastated by destructive weather. All things considered, farmers are expected to harvest the smallest corn crop in four years nationwide, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The agency last week reduced its planting estimate by 3.2% from May and its yield estimate by 5.7%. Farmers think more cuts are likely as the late-planted crop could face damage from hot summer weather and an autumn frost.
Because of the flooding and problems in the farming sector, there’s no time like the present to learn to grow your own food. It’s a vital skill when preparing for any catastrophe.
(COURTESY MICHAEL SNYDER)
Torrential Rain Of Biblical Proportions” Is Causing Immense Devastation For Midwest Farmers
The wettest 12 months in all of U.S. history was followed by the second wettest May on record, and for some parts of the Midwest the month of June will be even worse.
Some portions of Ohio and Indiana have gotten 10 more inches of rain since Friday, and more rain is literally falling on the Midwest as I write this article. When I describe what we have witnessed as “torrential rain of Biblical proportions”, I am not exaggerating even a little bit. Even before we got to the month of June, farmers in the middle of the country were already dealing with a disaster unlike anything that they had ever experienced before. And just when everyone thought that it couldn’t possibly get any worse, it did. Since Friday, the rainfall totals in the Ohio Valley have been staggering…
As much as 10 inches of rain has fallen in the Ohio Valley since Friday, causing flooding, necessitating water rescues and creating a mudslide near Lexington, Kentucky.
Parts of southern Indiana have seen 10 inches of rain, while up to half a foot fell in parts of Ohio. Other parts of Kentucky have reported 5 inches.
More rain is coming for the rest of the week, and that is exceptionally bad news for Midwest farmers.
At this point, millions of acres that farmers had intended to plant with corn will go completely unused. And according to a Washington Post article that was republished by MSN, corn futures are surging because traders are anticipating “an impending shortage” of corn…
Ohio trailed behind, with 68 percent of its corn planted, South Dakota had 78 percent, and Michigan and Indiana each had 84 percent of their hoped-for acres planted. Last week, the USDA lowered the projected total yield to 13.68 billion bushels (last year’s corn yield was 14.3 billion bushels). And as of Monday, in anticipation of an impending shortage, corn futures continued to trade at their highest level since June 2014.
I know that the USDA is projecting that somehow we will get to 13.68 billion bushels of corn, but a lot of experts are convinced that the USDA’s reduced projection is still wildly optimistic.
In some parts of the heartland, it literally looks like a hurricane just came through. When Ohio Department of Agriculture Director Dorothy Pelanda recently toured farms in her state, she saw fields that were “filled with water and weeds instead of crops”…
“I visited with several farmers this week and saw firsthand the impact of this devastating rainfall. Fields are visibly filled with water and weeds instead of crops,” states Ohio Department of Agriculture Director Dorothy Pelanda in the press release.
And for Ohio farmer Charles Kettering, hundreds of acres that he recently planted with corn and soybeans can’t be seen at all because they are currently underwater…
As much as a third of the 800 acres of corn and soybeans that Kettering planted a few weeks ago is currently underwater. The chances of that part of his crop surviving are next to nothing. As little as a full day underwater is enough to kill off whatever he planted. The deluge of heavy rain in late May and early June flooded much of the area’s fertile farmland, including Kettering’s acreage, which sits in the bottom of a valley.
As a result of the flooding here in June, the Ketterings will lose approximately $100,000.
Could you imagine how you would feel if you were suddenly hit with a financial loss of that magnitude?
Other farmers will be hit with huge losses at the end of the season when yields are way down. Thanks to the absolutely horrific weather, it is being projected that yields could be down by more than 50 percent for some Ohio farmers…
For those planting corn in June, yield losses are likely—even if the grower has switched to a shorter-season variety, said Peter Thomison, a corn field specialist with CFAES. The losses hinge on growing conditions after planting, but they could be more than 50% for some farmers, he said.
In the end, there is no way that we are going to come anywhere close to the 14.3 billion bushels of corn that was harvested in the U.S. last year, and that is going to have ripple effects that are going to last for a very long time.
For many Midwest farmers, this will be their last year in operation. Farm bankruptcies had already risen to the highest level since the last recession even before all of this rain, and this unprecedented disaster will be the final nail in the coffin for a lot of farms that have been teetering on the brink.
According to one recent survey, it is expected that the number of farm loan defaults over the next year will be double what we saw in 2017…
Midwestern bankers are tightening the purse strings on farm credit lines amid some of the toughest financial times for farmers in decades.
A survey of bank CEOs by Creighton University’s Heider College of Business found they expect the percentage of farm loan defaults over the next 12 months in a number of Midwestern states, including Illinois, to be double the default rates for 2017.
I keep warning that our planet is becoming increasingly unstable and that global weather patterns are changing dramatically. Midwest farmers are desperately hoping for some drier weather, but instead a lot more rain is coming…
Rain is in the forecast every day this week until Friday, and then we have a break over the weekend with more rain coming in Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday of next week.
The true scope of this crisis will not be fully known until harvest time rolls around, but right now the outlook for U.S. agricultural production in 2019 is exceedingly grim.
Perhaps things will soon dry out and we will have picture perfect weather for the rest of the growing season. If that happens, it will definitely help matters greatly.
But there is also the possibility that Midwest farmers could be hammered by extreme rain, extreme heat and/or an early frost.
Sadly, at this point it certainly wouldn’t take very much to turn an exceedingly bad growing season into a catastrophic one.
Interesting: 25% of Americans are now :”worse off” than they were before the great recession. Kind of kills the Trump narrative that the economy is booming
(courtesy Mac Slavo).
25% Of Americans Are “Worse Off” Than They Were Before The Great Recession
For many, the economic recovery being touted by the mainstream media has not yet affected them. About 25% of Americans say that a decade after the housing bust that caused the Great Recession, they are doing worse. Almost half of Americans are not doing any better at all too.
If you believe the mainstream media, the economy is robust and the unemployment rate is at a 49-year-low. But not all Americans have recovered from the Great Recession. According to a new survey from Bankrate of about 3,000 Americans, 23% of people who were adults when the recession started in December 2007 say they are now financially worse off than they were before the recession hit. That percentage amounts to just under 50 million Americans. Another 25% say they are doing the “same.” In all, just over half believe their “overall finances” are better than before
“Americans were and continue to be in a degree of denial of the financial crisis and Great Recession,” said Mark Hamrick, Bankrate’s senior economic analyst according to a report by Yahoo Finance. “One of the constant themes that presents itself in the data is that Americans are still digging out in many ways from that experience.”
“While some have managed to prosper in the decade since, there are still tens of millions who are struggling to even get back to where they were before the economy took a turn for the worse,” added Hamrick.
Could that mean that the economy is not all that robust? We certainly think so. But speaking the truth is a revolutionary act in times of deceit.
When asked about their salaries, less than half of the respondents said their wages were better than before, while more than a third say that it is worse. But if you’re a millennial (29-38) you’re in luck: Only 16% of this demographic who were adults during the Great Recession say their pay is worse now. That’s compared to 26% of baby boomers (aged 55-73). “If you take this data at face value — where less than half of the adult population say that their pay is better — and most indicate it is not better, that tells you enough and raises enough of a question about the true improvement that Americans have experienced,” Hamrick said.
But some have been questioning this economy for a while now. It is heavilymanipulated by the Federal Reserve and the government is doing nothing to prevent the devaluation of the dollar or inflation. For this reason, we have taken to suggesting financial preparation as incredibly important to consider at this time. Storing food and water will always be good ideas, however, we should take the time to get our finances straightened out as well. There are several ways to go about it, but an easy to follow plan is Dave Ramsey’s “baby steps.” He suggests paying down your debts and has often said he “hates debt more than anyone.”
A democrat Congressman states that Mueller will testify. I extremely doubt it. It will be far worse for the democrats.
“He Will Get Subpoenaed”: Congressman Assures ‘Triggered’ Joe Scarborough That Mueller Will Testify
“It’s going to happen. He will get subpoenaed.”
Those were the words of Rep. Jim Himes just one day after House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff warned that “time is running out” to get Robert Mueller on the hill to testify, according to Mediaite.
He made them on an episode of Morning Joe where host Joe Scarborough spent a majority of the show screaming and raving about what an “outrage” it was that Mueller had not yet testified, despite Mueller having previously said “my testimony is in the report”.
Scarborough screamed at Himes during the interview:
“I want to know why Robert Mueller thinks he’s above coming to Capitol Hill and testifying for Americans? It’s outrageous! I want to know something else, Jim. Why don’t you subpoena him? This is absolutely ridiculous.”
In return, Himes said:
“Two things to say: Number one, it’s going to happen. He will get subpoenaed. Look, we have a profound interest inside the intelligence committee in hearing about something we have not heard about nearly enough.”
“The other thing which you’re talking about so animatedly is getting Bob Mueller, for all of the reasons you state, getting Bob Mueller simply to say what he said in the report, which by the way he said he would do. He said my testimony is in that report. But as you pointed out, not an awful lot of people got through the 500 pages. There is a virtue on that. You’re being pretty tough on Bob Mueller here. I do not blame him for not wanting to join the partisan fray. But you know this man. He’s a patriot. Will he do what he’s asked to do.”
As Scarborough continued to rant, Himes, a Democrat, concluded: “Take the coffee cup away from Joe.”
E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
Well that about does it for tonight
I will see you on THURSDAY night