GOLD: $1393.10 UP $47.95 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)
Silver: $15.51 UP 53 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)//
Closing access prices:
Gold : $1391.80
Gold and silver broke out today as the bankers try desperately to cover their massive shortfall. Expect continued margin calls. However the big explosion in price will occur when our derivative banks blow up with nobody able to cover their trillions in losses. We have also witnessed massive volumes in Exchange for physical contracts. When buyers of these paper gold/silver turn them into real gold, the real fireworks commence. Tomorrow’s Comex OI in both silver and gold will be astronomical. I receive preliminary numbers late at night and if you interested, check in this spot at around 1 am and I will provide it for you…
OPEN INTEREST/PRELIMINARY: FOR FRIDAY
COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A WHOPPING: 43,170 CONTRACTS
GOLD EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE: 22,225 CONTRACTS
TOTAL: 65,395 CONTRACTS…SIMPLY MIND BOGGLING
TOTAL COMEX OI FELL BY 2164 CONTRACTS
SILVER EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE: 4258 CONTRACTS
TOTAL OI GAIN: 2094 CONTRACTS.
JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)
today RECEIVING 36/85
CONTRACT: JUNE 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,344.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/19/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 06/21/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 7
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 26
661 C JP MORGAN 36
686 C INTL FCSTONE 5
737 C ADVANTAGE 49 42
905 C ADM 5
TOTAL: 85 85
MONTH TO DATE: 2,218
NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR MAY CONTRACT: 85 NOTICE(S) FOR 8500 OZ (0.2643 tonnes)
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR: 2218 NOTICES FOR 221,800 OZ (6.8989 TONNES)
0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month: 391 for 1,955,000 oz
Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE : $ 9220 DOWN $30
Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $ 9450 UP $200
Let us have a look at the data for today
IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE A SMALL SIZED 39 CONTRACTS FROM 239,466 UP TO 239,505 ACCOMPANYING THE 3 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.( LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS HAVE STOPPED FOR GOLD . HOWEVER WE ARE WITNESSING A RISE IN SPREADING ACCUMULATION BY THE BANKERS IN SILVER)..TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S 2018 RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.
WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S. WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:,
0 FOR JUNE, 1505 FOR JULY. 0 FOR AUGUST, 0 FOR SEPT, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 1505 CONTRACTS.( WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1505 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1505 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 7.525 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANYING:
1.THE 3 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND
2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:
JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);
FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ
FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ
FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION OZ S
FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.
FOR NOV: A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING AND
21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.
5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.
2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:
27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.
3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.
18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.
2.120 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JUNE:
35,334 CONTRACTS (FOR 14 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 35,334 CONTRACTS) OR 176.67 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2523 CONTRACTS OR 12.61 MILLION OZ/DAY)
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JUNE: 176. MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 25.23% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)* JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.
ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 1047.42 MILLION OZ.
JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS: 217.455. MILLION OZ
FEB 2019 TOTALS: 147.4 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 207.835 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 182.87 MILLION OZ.
MAY 2019: TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 136.55 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 39, DESPITE THE 3 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY... THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1505 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . OUR BANKERS WILL RESUME THEIR LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREAD TRADES FOR SILVER ONCE THE JUNE CONTRACT COMMENCES IN EARNEST….
TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 1544 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
i.e 1505 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 39 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 3 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.98 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY!!
In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.199 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 171% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT MARCH MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ OF SILVER
IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.
AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.
ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:
- HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018 (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ ) FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT: A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ JANUARY AT 5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019: 2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/ APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY: 18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.120 MILLION OZ//
- HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018: 244,196 CONTRACTS, WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
- HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
- RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ
AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)
WITH RESPECT TO SPREADING: WE NO DOUBT HAD VERY STRONG ACTIVITY OF SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN SILVER TODAY AS TOTAL OI ROSE SHARPLY DESPITE THE SMALLISH LOSS OF 3 CENTS.
FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SPREAD/TRADING.
AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:
“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCHED TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.
HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NO INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.
AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES, HERE IS THE BANKERS MODUS OPERANDI:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST IS STARTING TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS 13,315 CONTRACTS, TO 538,951 DESPITE THE $1.85 PRICING LOSS WITH RESPECT TO COMEX GOLD PRICING YESTERDAY// /THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS STOPPED AND THESE SPREADERS HAVE ALREADY MORPHED INTO SILVER AND THEY ARE INTO THE ACCUMULATION PHASE OF THEIR OPERATION. THUS THE GAIN IN OI IS REAL AS INVESTORS ARE POURING INTO THE GOLD SECTOR
REMEMBER THAT THE GAIN IN GOLD AND SILVER OCCURED AFTER THE COMEX CLOSED AT 1:30. FOMC RESULTS WERE AT 2 PM
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 9159 CONTRACTS:
APRIL 0 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS, AUGUST 2019: 9159 CONTRACTS, DEC> 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 538,951. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 22,466 CONTRACTS: 13,315 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 9159 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN OF 22,466 CONTRACTS OR 2,246,600 OZ OR 69.87 TONNES. YESTERDAY WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF $1.85 IN GOLD TRADING.…AND WITH THAT SMALL LOSS IN PRICE, WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE OF 69.87 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUPPLYING COPIOUS SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE : 126,937 CONTRACTS OR 12,693,700 oz OR 394.82 TONNES (14 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9066 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAYS IN TONNES: 394.82 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 394.82/3550 x 100% TONNES =11.12% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE: 2,646.30 TONNES
JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; 531.20 TONNES
FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 344.36 TONNES
MARCH 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 497.16 TONNES
APRIL 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE: 456.10 TONNES
MAY 2019 TOTAL ISSUANCE: 449.10 TONNES
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLEDRIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
Result: A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 13,315 DESPITE THE PRICING LOSS THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK ON YESTERDAY($1.85)) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 9159 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 9159 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 22,466 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
9159 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 13,315 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 69.87 TONNES). ..AND THIS INCREASE OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.85 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX. WE HAD ZERO PRESENCE OF SPREADING ACCUMULATION IN GOLD ///TODAY/
we had: 85 notice(s) filed upon for 8500 oz of gold at the comex.
With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
WITH GOLD UP $47.95 TODAY//
NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES
TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD. IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY
WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY:
A SMALL CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SILVER SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 749,000 OZ
/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ.
OUTLINE OF TOPICS TONIGHT
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 39 CONTRACTS from 239,466 UP TO 239,505 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 1 1/3 YEARS AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..THE SPREADERS HAVE COMMENCED THEIR ACCUMULATION OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS IN SILVER AND STOPPED THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS IN GOLD
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
FOR JUNE =0 CONTRACTS AND JULY: 1505 CONTRACTS FOR AUGUST: 0, FOR SEPT. 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1505 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 39 CONTRACTS TO THE 1505 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 1544 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7.772 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 7.475 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.. A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., 7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. 21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY, 27.120 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH., 3.875 MILLION OZ FOR APRIL 18.765 MILLION OZ FOR MAY AND NOW 2.120 MILLION OZ FOR JUNE.
RESULT: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 3 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 1505 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.
BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL
2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
I)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 69.32 POINTS OR 2.38% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 348.29 POINTS OR 1.24% /The Nikkei closed UP 128.99 POINTS OR 0.60%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .59%
/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.8559 /Oil DOWN TO 52.12 dollars per barrel for WTI and 61.21 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.8559 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8618 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP RAISED RATES TO 25%
3A//NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3 China/Chinese affairs
We now have the Fed investigating Deutsche bank for suspected money laundering especially with the Russian mob
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
Israel holds the largest “Hezbollah War Exercise” as they fear an attack from the Iranians who hold some of the land in the south of Lebanon
Iran shoots down a USA drone. Iran states that the drone was in Iranian airspace..the USA states that it was over the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran states that they are ready for war.
6. GLOBAL ISSUES
a)There is no greater sign that the world is deflating than this: libor tumbles the most since May 2009. This is why we are witnessing 10 yr yields from all countries collapse under this huge deflationary pressure as growth stymies
b)Simon Black gives up a very analysis on the demographics facing the globe. However the once country that is in severe trouble on that front is Japan.
(courtesy Simon Black/SovereignMan)
7. OIL ISSUES
The shooting down of the USA surveillance drone over international waters causes oil to spike the most in 5 months
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. PHYSICAL MARKETS
ii)A very important commentary from Ambrose Evans as he agrees with the above commentary that we are now entering a currency war as global demand dries up. Europe will be defenseless
( Ambrose Evans \Pritchard)
10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)
a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/
Philly Fed slumps in June as outgoing prices plunge putting massive pressures on margins
iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES
a)This is big!! we are now witnessing a complete collapse in the USA trucking industry
(courtesy Michael Snyder)
b)USA farmers are now calling for a 3rd farm bailout as the trade war intensifies
d)Goldman Sachs now capitulates: sees rate cuts in both Juoly and September(courtesy zerohedge)
e)A good commentary from Michael Every as he explains in detail what is going throughout the globe. As interest rates plummet to zero and below zero it will not help countries respective economies…the world is rapidly deflating…
f)Los Angeles area has been receiving a huge number of quakes in this last month.
i)More shenanigans from the FBI as they totally ignored repeated warnings that the Manafort Black Ledger might be a fake
ii)the left is slamming Biden and his son????
Let us head over to the comex:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 13,315 CONTRACTS TO A LEVEL OF 538,951 DESPITE THE LOSS OF $1.85 IN GOLD PRICING WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING)
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 9159 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:
0 FOR JUNE ’19: 0 CONTRACTS , AUG; 9159 CONTRACTS: DEC: 0 AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 9159 CONTRACTS.
THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST 48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 22,466 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 9159 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 13,315 COMEX CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER IN GOLD TO CONTAIN THE PRICE RISE.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 22,466 CONTRACTS OR 2,246,600 OZ OR 69.87 TONNES.
We are now in the active contract month of JUNE and here the open interest stands at 298 CONTRACTS as we GAINED 103 contracts. We had 19 notices filed yesterday so we gained 122 contracts or 12,200 oz of gold that will stand for delivery as there appears to be some gold at the comex as they will now try their luck on finding the fast vanishing supplies of physical gold over here. The next contract month is the non active month of July and here the OI FELL by 8 contracts DOWN to 1279 contracts. The next big active month for deliverable gold is August and here the OI ROSE by a whopping 10,795 contracts UP to 398,647.
TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:
WE HAD 85 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 8500 OZ. (0.2643 TONNES)
And now for the wild silver comex results.
Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 39 CONTRACTS FROM 239,466 DOWN TO 239,505 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018//244,196 CONTRACTS. AND TODAY’S TINY OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A 3 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY.
WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE. HERE WE HAVE 33 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOR A LOSS OF 38 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 38 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX…. AND THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS FOR THEIR EXHAUSTIVE EFFORT IN TRYING TO OBTAIN METAL..
THE NEXT MONTH AFTER JUNE IS THE ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY. HERE THE OI FELL BY 7646 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 110,267. WE GAINED 25 CONTRACTS OF OI FOR AUGUST TO STAND AT 865. THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER AUGUST IS SEPT AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 7411 CONTRACTS UP TO 81,818 CONTRACTS.
TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:
We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for nil OZ for the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver
Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 511,157 CONTRACTS
CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 343,758 contracts
INITIAL standings for JUNE/GOLD
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz||nil oz|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz||
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz||
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz||
|No of oz served (contracts) today||
|No of oz to be served (notices)||
|Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month||
|Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month||NIL oz|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month||xxx oz|
we had 0 dealer entry:
We had 0 kilobar entries
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 0 deposit into the customer account
i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz
ii) Into Everybody else: nil oz
total gold deposits: nil oz
generally, very little gold arrives from outside/ NO amount arrived today
we had 0 gold withdrawal from the customer account:
i) We had 0 withdrawal:
total gold withdrawals; nil oz
FOR THE JUNE 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 85 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 36 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2218) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE. (298 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (85 x 100 oz per contract) equals 243,100 OZ OR 7.561 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE/2019 contract month:
No of notices served (2218 x 100 oz) + (298)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (85 x 100 oz )which equals 243,100 oz standing OR 7.561 TONNES in this active delivery month of JUNE.
We GAINED 122 contracts or an additional 12,200 oz will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. Somebody was in need of physical gold badly.!!
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE TO NO GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! WE HAVE ONLY 10.04 TONNES OF REGISTERED ( GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE) VS 7.561 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING// THEY SEEM TO BE USING CONSIDERABLE GOLD VAPOUR TO SETTLE UPON UNSUSPECTING LONGS.
OF OPEN INTERESTS FOR THE UPCOMING JUNE 2019 CONTRACT VS JUNE 2018
FOR THE INITIAL JUNE 2018 CONTRACT WE HAD A HUGE 32.152 TONNES STAND. (VS 7.561 TONNES TODAY/JUNE 2019)
HOWEVER BY MONTH’S END ONLY 21.56 TONNES EVENTUALLY STOOD AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS. AS YOU CAN SEE, THE CROOKS ARE FOLLOWING THE SAME FORMAT OF MORPHING VS LAST YEAR AS ONLY GOLD VAPOUR SEEMS TO BE PHYSICALLY PRESENT AT THE COMEX AND LONGS MUST TRY THEIR LUCK IN LONDON.
IN THE LAST 33 MONTHS 117 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
And now for silver
AND NOW THE DELIVERY MONTH OF June
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory||NIL oz|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory||
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory||
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory||
|No of oz served today (contracts)||
|No of oz to be served (notices)||
|Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)||391 contracts
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month||NIL oz|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month|
we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things
total dealer deposits: NIL oz
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 3 deposits into the customer account
into JPMorgan: 597,808.710 oz
ii)into Delaware: 99,728.491 oz
iii) Into CNT: 1,1198,584.643 oz
*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.
JPMorgan now has 153.4 million oz of total silver inventory or 50.36% of all official comex silver. (153.4 million/304.6 million
total customer deposits today: 1,896,121.844 oz
i) out of Delaware: 4037.99 oz
ii) Out of Brinks: 743,520.946 oz
iii) Out of JPMorgan: 102,924.800
iv) Out of CNT: 394,178.505 oz
we had 0 adjustments :
total dealer silver: 87.119 million
total dealer + customer silver: 304.692 million oz
The total number of notices filed today for the JUNE 2019. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR nil oz
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 391 x 5,000 oz = 1,955,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE. (33) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JUNE/2019 contract month: 391(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE( 33) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 2,120,000 oz of silver standing for the JN contract month.
WE LOST 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND AS WELL THEY ALSO NEGATED A FIAT BONUS.
TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:
We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZfor the JUNE, 2019 COMEX contract for silver
TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 256,383 CONTRACTS (we had considerable spreading activity..accumulation/and short covering
CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 111,181 CONTRACTS..(we no doubt had considerable spreading activity as they are now starting to accumulate in silver)
YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 111,181 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 555 million OZ 79.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER
COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
NPV for Sprott
1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.97% June 20/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.97% to NAV (june 20/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.97%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/
3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):
NAV 13.69 TRADING 13.13/DISCOUNT 4.11
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/
June 20/WITH GOLD UP $47.95, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES
JUNE 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONES
JUNE 18/JUNE 18/WITH GOLD UP $7.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES
JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES
JUNE 14/ WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.40 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.10 TONNES
june 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.70 TONNES
JUNE 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES
JUNE 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.65 CENTS TODAY: A TINY CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .24 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.18 TONNES
JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.42 TONNES
june 7/WITH GOLD UP $3.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES
jUNE 6/WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES
JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $6.00 TODAY/STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.59 TONNES
JUNE 4/WITH GOLD UP 0.85 TODAY: A MONSTROUS PAPER GAIN OF 16.44 TONNES/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.65 TONNES
JUNE 3/WITH GOLD UP $17.50 TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE, A DEPOSIT OF 2.35 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//
MAY 31/WITH GOLD UP $17.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES
MAY 30: WI6H GOLD UP $6.40 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.52 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 740.86 TONNES
MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES
MAY 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD> A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 737.34 TONNES
MAY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.81 TONNES
MAY 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.10 TODAY: A STRANGE WITHDRAWAL OF .88 TONNES FORM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738,81 TONNES
MAY 22//WITH GOLD FLAT TODAY: WE HAD A GOOD 1.52 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 739.69 TONNES
MAY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.65 TODAY: A SURPRISE 2.00 TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD GOLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.17 TONNES
MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 A HUGE 2.96 TONNE DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.17 TONNES
MAY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES
MAY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.50: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.23 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES
MAY 15/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES
MAY 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45 TODAY: STRANGE!! THE CROOKS DECIDED TO DEPOSIT A HUGE 3.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 736.46 TONNES
MAY 13/ WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $15.40 TODAY: STRANGE! A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.41 TONNES OF GOLD (TO TAME GOLD’S RISE TODAY)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 733.23 TONNES
MAY 10 WITH GOLD UP $2.15 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES
MAY 9//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES
MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES
MAY 7/ WITH GOLD UP $1.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES
MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 739.64 TONNES
MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $9.35 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.52
MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES
MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.69 TONNES
JUNE 20/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 764.10 tonnes
*IN LAST 614 TRADING DAYS: 169.66 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 514 TRADING DAYS: A NET 4.03TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD INVENTORY.
Now the SLV Inventory/
JUNE 20/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 749,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.819 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 18 WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.070 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 13/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 12/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.413 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.775 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 11/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//
june 7/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 12 CENTS, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//
jUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 9 CENTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZE DEPOSIT OF 630,087 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.652 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 5/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.396 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.434 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 4/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 3/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ//
MAY 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 422,000 OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.038 MILLION OZ/
May 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ///
MAY 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//
MAY 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//
MAY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ/
MAY 23/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//
MAY 22/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 311.616 MILLION OZ
MAY 21: WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 750,000 OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.616 MILLION OZ//
MAY 20/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ
MAY 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.185 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY VAULTS:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 312.366 MILLION OZ//
MAY 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ//
MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.031 MILLION OZ// THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.551 MILLION OZ.
MAY 14/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/
MAY 13//WITH SILVE5 DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ…
MAY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///
MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//
MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ///
MAY 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ//
MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 891,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.582 MILLION OZ/
MAY 3//WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 843,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/TOTAL INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.691 MILLION OZ//
MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 13 CENTS, MIRACUOUSLY THE AUTHORITIES ADD 2.869 MILLION OZ OF SILVER BACK INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.848 MILLION OZ//
MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.979 MILLION OZ////
Inventory 319.819 MILLION OZ
LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:
THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE
6 Month MM GOFO 2.10/ and libor 6 month duration 2.30
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:
G0LD LENDING RATE: + .20
12 Month MM GOFO
LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.30
GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE
GOLD LENDING RATE = +.23
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….
Euro/USA 1.1298 UP .0063 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN
USA/JAPAN YEN 107.81 DOWN 0.308 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…
GBP/USA 1.2718 UP 0.0065 (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/BREXIT EXTENDED TO OCT 31/2019//
USA/CAN 1.3199 DOWN .0071 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)
Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 16 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 69.32 POINTS OR 2.38%
//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 348.29 POINTS OR 1.240%
/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,59%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN
Trading from Europe and Asia
EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 348.29 POINTS OR 1.240%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 69.32 POINTS OR 2.38%
Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 59%
Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 128.99 POINTS OR 0.60%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1380.30
Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.01% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from YESTERDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.
The 30 yr bond yield 2.53 DOWN 0 IN BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY night.
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 96.69 DOWN 3 CENT(S) from YESTERDAY’s close.
This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.54% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.17% DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.39%//DOWN 0 in basis point yield from yesterday.
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.15 UP 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 176 points higher than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS –.32% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//
THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.47% AND NOW ABOVE THE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1286 UP .0051 or 51 basis points
USA/Japan: 107.39 DOWN .718 OR YEN UP 72 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2694 UP .0041 POUND UP 41 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar UP 68 basis points to 1.3202
The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8506 0N SHORE (UP)..
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: 6.8616 (YUAN UP)..
TURKISH LIRA: 5.7772 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.17%
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from YESTERDAY at 1.99 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.53 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day
Your closing USA dollar index, 96.67 DOWN 44 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 20,90 0.28%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 46.86 POINTS OR .35%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 17.12 POINTS 0.31%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 22.70 POINTS or 0.25%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 140.06 POINTS OR 0.66%
WTI Oil price; 56.72 12:00 PM EST
Brent Oil: 64.20 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN / ROUBLE RISES: 62.96 THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.77 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 77 BASIS PTS)
TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO –.32 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST
This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM
Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 56.65//
BRENT : 64.51
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.00… VERY DEADLY//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.52..VERY DEADLY/
EURO/USA 1.1294 ( UP 58 BASIS POINTS)
USA/JAPANESE YEN:107,32 DOWN .792 (YEN UP 79 BASIS POINTS/..
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.62 DOWN 49 cent(s)/
The British pound at 4 pm Britain Pound/USA:1.2705 UP 52 POINTS
the Turkish lira close: 5.7605
the Russian rouble 62.91 UP 0.83 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 83 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar: 1.3192 UP 79 BASIS pts
USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8506 (ONSHORE)/we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly./
USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.8570 (OFFSHORE) we need to watch these levels/anything greater than 6.95 will be deadly/
German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.32%
The Dow closed UP 249.17 POINTS OR 0.94%
NASDAQ closed UP 127.40 POINTS OR 0.98%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.76 CLOSED UP .43
LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.386%//libor dropping like a stone
And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY//
Markets Turmoil On Downed-Drone, Powell-Promises, & Trump-Tweets
Stocks up to record highs (Fed and Energy stocks), Bonds (price) up (Fed and Iran safe-haven), Gold up (Fed and Iran safe-haven), VIX up (hedging melt-up gains or levered longs), Dollar down hard (Fed uber-easy and no safe-haven bid?), and Rate-Cut Expectations soared…
Chinese stocks exploded higher overnight in the morning session (as policymakers hinted at more potential easing) but were flat in the afternoon session…
Notably, China’s bond yields are the only ones that are not making new cycle lows…
European markets opened exuberantly but faded for most of the day (Spain was red on the day)…
German bund yields fell back to record lows (-32bps) and most of Europe is now in a negative yield…
And as yields tumbled, so did European bank stocks…
US Equities surged overnight, opened at record highs (S&P), but were sold from the cash open, accelerating close to unchanged when Trump warned Iran “made a very bid mistake”… then after he seemed to walk back the event, stocks recovered some of their gains…
NOTE – remember tomorrow is a quad witch
“We are inclined to believe it has more to do with tomorrow’s quadruple expiry in futures and options markets than a true shift in investor sentiment,” said Russ Visch, a technical analyst with BMO Capital Markets.
“The quality of the rally since late May (narrow participation, extremely light volume) suggest it’s nothing more than a relief rally within an ongoing medium-term downtrend,” he said.
The S&P 500 hit a new all-time intraday high at the open…
NOTE – Previous S&P intra high 2954.13, close high 2945.8)
Late-day buying panic was sparked by all that pre-expiration gamma again…
Cylicals were bid today, catching up to yesterday’s defensive-driven outperformance…
US Bank stocks continue to notably underperform as yields collapsed…
TSLA stalled at key downtrend despite market strength…
Despite the equity gains, VIX ended the day higher…
The jaws of death widen…
Treasury yields tumbled…
With 10Y Yields plunging below 2.00%…
And 2Y yields failed to bounce at all today…
The dollar was dumped – the biggest two-day drop since Feb 2018…and DXY back below the 97.00 level…
Yuan has strengthened notably, trading stronger than the CNY fix for the first time since April
Cryptos were mixed with Bitcoin gains, Litecoin and Ripple fading…
Bitcoin surged back up toward $9500 (highest since May 2018)
Commodities were all higher on the day but Iran downing a US drone sparked a huge spike in oil…
Gold soared up near $1400 overnight, fell back, then accelerated higher once again as US-Iran headlines hit…
This was Gold’s biggest day since Oct 2018, spiking to its highest since 2013…
Gold in Yuan is at its highest since April 2013…
Oil prices exploded higher (biggest day since 2018) on the US-Iran headlines… (this is the biggest 3-day spike since Dec 2016)
Finally, US (and Europe) markets’ expectations for central bank rate-cuts have collapsed to cycle lows (52bps of cuts in 2019 and 86bps of cuts by the end of 2020)…
Since The S&P 500 record high in September 2018, gold is up 15% and 10Y bonds total return is almost 11% (with stocks unch)…
And in case you’re wondering what’s driving stocks back to record highs… Simple – global money supply has surged once again to rescue markets…
i) Market trading/
Trump: “You’ll Soon Find Out” If US Attacks Iran; Stocks Slide
Update 2: In his clearest threat yet, President Trump replied “you’ll soon find out” when asked whether the US would attack Iran.
In remarks to the press, Trump reiterated that Iran made a “very bad” mistake, and insisted that the drone was in international waters.
That remark sent stocks spiraling lower as the prospect of renewed war in the Middle East weighs on markets.
Stocks have come off their highs of the session after the S&P 500 opened at fresh record highs.
The dollar weakened on the headline while gold climbed.
The main US benchmarks have now erased nearly all of their gains from earlier in the session.
If Jerome Powell has to cut rates 2-3 times to ‘offset’ the trade war with China, how many cuts will we need to counterbalance a ‘hot war’ with Iran? Whatever happens, Trump said he’s sure Powell will “do what’s right.”
* * *
Update: After reportedly being briefed on the attack, President Trump has weighed in on Twitter to warn Iran that it made a “very big mistake” by shooting down the American drone.
The US Navy is sending ships to where debris from the downed drone is reportedly floating (in international waters, according to reports).
The US has been increasing the number of military assets in the region as tensions with Iran have flared. The USS Abraham Lincoln is stationed nearby with a full carrier strike group.
With all the tools for escalation present in the region, is it possible that we could be at war with Iran by the end of the day? Trump started what wounded like a walk-back, saying that the incident was probably a “mistake” made by an individual soldier. However, he followed that up by insisting that his administration wasn’t pushing him toward conflict, and that, some times, it was the other way around.
* * *
Tensions between the US and Iran flared on Thursday when the Iranian Revolutionary Guard shot down an American drone that was said to have flown into Iranian airspace (the US claims the drone flew over international territory). The drone was reportedly flying over the Strait of Hormuz – that critical chokepoint for the global oil trade – not far from where two oil tankers were recently attacked.
“We will defend Iran’s airspace and maritime boundaries with all our might,” Ali Shamkhani, secretary-general for the Supreme National Security Council was quoted as saying by state-run Islamic Students’ News Agency. “It doesn’t matter which country’s aircraft cross our airspace.
IRGC Commander Hossein Salami said shooting down the drone had sent a clear and strong message for the US: Iran’s borders are ‘red lines’ and though Iran doesn’t seek war, Iran is ready for war. The US, meanwhile, denies that the drone crossed into Iran’s airspace, and says it was in international airspace the whole time.
The drone reportedly was shot down over a village called Kuhmobarak in Iran’s Hormozgan province.
The news sent oil prices surging, with Brent up as much as 3%. President Trump has been briefed on the incident and the White House is “monitoring the situation.” The US military has branded the shooting “an unprovoked attack.”
The shooting follows attacks on six tankers in the region, which Iran has denied responsibility for (including the two from last week). On Wednesday, a news agency operated by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen said that the rebels had hit a power station in Jazan, Saudi Arabia, with a cruise missile, though these reports weren’t independently verified.
Numerous geopolitical experts warned that Thursday’s incident “significantly raises” the prospects for international conflict.
Particularly after the US dispatched more troops to the region last week, tensions between the US and Iran just won’t subside, with Tehran still furious over US sanctions on oil sales. With Tehran poised to violate its agreements under the JCPOA on enriched uranium stockpiles, many are fearful that a ‘hot war’ between the US and Iran might erupt. If it did, some of Washington’s biggest geopolitical adversaries (Russia and China) could get involved, triggering WWIII.
Philly Fed slumps in June as outgoing prices plunge putting massive pressures on margins
Philly Fed Slumps In June As Price Plunge Pressures Margins
Seemingly confirming the collapse in Empire Manufacturing ‘soft’ survey data, The Philly Fed Business Outlook plunged from 16.6 to just 0.3 in June (well below the 10.4 expectation).
While not as big a drop as in February, the slump from the dead-cat-bounce hopes of the last few months is very telling…
Under the hood was a more mixed picture with ‘hope’ rebounding… Employees, workweek, new orders, and prices all weakened, but the six-month outlook rose to 21.4 vs 19.7.
However, the shift in prices paid and prices received (dropped from 17.5 to 0.6, the lowest since October 2016) is crushing margins…
Of course, none of this matters if The Fed cuts rates and sends stocks to record-er highs, right?
Overall, ‘soft’ survey data has crashed to levels not seen since before Brexit…
iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES
this is big!! we are now witnessing a complete collapse in the USA trucking industry
(courtesy Michael Snyder)
They’re Calling It A “Bloodbath” For The $800 Billion Trucking Industry As US Economy Collapses
The U.S. trucking industry has not experienced a downturn of this magnitude since the last financial crisis, and this is one of the clearest signs yet that the U.S. economy is steamrolling into a severe economic downturn.
When economic activity is increasing, the trucking industry sees rising demand for their services and freight rates tend to go up. That is precisely what we witnessed in 2018, and truckers were hoping for more of the same in 2019. But when economic activity is on the decline, the trucking industry sees decreasing demand for their services and freight rates tend to go down. Unfortunately, the numbers that the U.S. trucking industry is reporting right now are absolutely abysmal. Freight rates have now fallen for six months in a row on a year-over-year basis, and according to Business Insider during the month of May loads on the spot market fell “by a chilling 62.6%” compared to last year…
This year has been rocky for the $800 billion trucking industry.
After a raucous 2018, 2019 has seen retailers and manufacturers moving less, according to the Cass Freight Index. Freight rates have dipped year-over-year for six months straight. Loads on the spot market, in which retailers and manufacturers buy trucking capacity as they need it rather than through a contract, have fallen by a chilling 62.6% in May year-over-year.
The spot market is where we see the marginal changes in demand most clearly, and what this is telling us is that we are already in a transportation recession.
Of course that is almost certainly putting it too nicely. According to one owner-operator, what we are witnessing right now is nothing short of a “bloodbath”…
The earnings of big and small players alike are getting hit as factory activity continues to decline. The Lexington, Kentucky-based owner-operator Chad Boblett said some truck drivers are seeing a “bloodbath.”
There has been a spate of trucking companies declaring bankruptcy this year, too. The largest was New England Motor Freight, which was No. 19 in its trucking segment. Falcon Transport also shut down this year, abruptly laying off some 550 employees in April.
If demand does not start rebounding really soon, we are going to see many more trucking companies go bankrupt.
And of course it isn’t just trucking companies that are licking their wounds right now. All modes of transportation are down compared to last year, and that is a clear indication that big trouble is ahead for the U.S. economy. According to Wolf Richter, the Cass Freight Index just suffered it’s largest drop “since November 2009″…
Freight shipment volume in the US dropped 6.0% in May compared to May last year, the sixth month in a row of year-over-year declines, and the sharpest year-over-year drop since November 2009, according to the Cass Freight Index for Shipments.
The index tracks shipments of goods for consumer and industrial sectors across all modes of transportation – truck, rail, air, and barge.
What a difference one year can make.
Last year at this time we were in the midst of a trucking boom, and as a result orders for heavy trucks surged to record highs…
In late 2017 and through summer of 2018, freight rates had been driven up by a capacity crunch in the trucking industry, and a panic amid shippers – such as big retailers or industrial companies that need to get their merchandise across the country – that trucking companies won’t be able to keep up with demand.
To meet that demand, truckers went on a buying binge, ordering a record number of Class-8 trucks that now have entered service.
But now that the trucking boom has turned into a trucking bust, we are watching orders for heavy trucks absolutely collapse.
In fact, according to Zero Hedge the number of new orders for heavy trucks in May was down a whopping 70 percent compared to a year ago…
Preliminary North America Class 8 net order data from ACT Research shows that the industry booked just 10,800 units in May, down 27% sequentially, but also lower by an astonishing 70% year-over-year. YTD orders are down 64% compared to the first five months of 2018.
This would not be happening if we had a “booming” economy.
Last year, the Cass Freight Index was showing robust increases month after monthbecause economic activity was definitely rising.
But now the Cass Freight Index has fallen on a year-over-year basis for six months in a row because U.S. economy activity is dropping.
As I noted yesterday, nobody should be attempting to claim that the U.S. economy is in good shape at this point. All of the numbers are definitely pointing in the other direction.
So what does all of this mean for average U.S. consumers?
What it means is that we should all be getting ready to go through another brutal economic downturn. I personally know some people that have already lost their jobs, and a lot more job losses are coming. It doesn’t matter if you have worked your tail off for years and have been the most loyal employee in America. When it comes time for heads to roll, it won’t be the corporate executives with the fat paychecks that are let go.
Someday soon you may be called into the manager’s office without any warning whatsoever and be escorted out of the building 15 minutes later.
That is literally how fast it can happen.
When things started to go bad in 2008, the economic dominoes began to fall very quickly.
We should probably expect a similar scenario this time around.
The “next economic downturn” is already here, and the months ahead promise to be quite “interesting” indeed.
US Farmers Call For Third Farm Bailout If Trade War Intensifies: Lobby
This year’s corn crop has been absolutely decimated by constant rain and unseasonably cold weather. Trade wars have collapsed American exports of soybeans to China, as foreclosures and bankruptcies are now rippling through the Midwest’s agricultural sector at disturbing speeds.The US farm lobby said Tuesday that a third farm bailout would be needed if Washington grinds to a halt during the 2020 US election cycle limits President Trump from closing trade deals and reopening top export markets, reported Reuters.
American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall said if Congress fails to approve the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), then other trade deals between the European Union and Japan could remain unresolved.
Farmers have already felt a tremendous loss of momentum in exports to China. They’re now hoping countries like Europe and Mexico can purchase additional agriculture products.
“The deeper we get into this campaign season, the more difficult it might become” to get USMCA ratified or any trade deals done, Duvall said in an interview.
“Not because of the treaty itself, not because of the need itself, but just because of the rhetoric around the election,” Duvall said.
Democratic lawmakers seized the House of Representatives during the 2018 midterm election – as they have routinely demanded changes to the USMCA trade deal.
Duvall said the Farm Bureau has indicated that key export markets have been disrupted at a time when low spot prices, high inventory levels, slowing economic outlook, and damaging weather across the Midwest, could culminate into a full-blown farm crisis on par to the 1980s.
President Trump has promised about $28 billion in farm bailouts in two separate rounds to farmers, who many are his base, to compensate for the loss of sales.
“If we’re not going to get USMCA finished, if we’re not going to get the solution to our problems in China or Japan, then we need to be talking about another payment to try to hold farmers over until that gets done,” Duvall said.
The bailouts came from the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC), established in the Great Depression, was created to compensate farmers during periods of economic stress.
President Trump’s command and control economic style of overseeing the economy has resulted in a trade war where the government picks winners and losers. As a result of government intervention, there is always an unintended consequence, and that one for the trade war happens to be the downfall of American farmers. So it’s very likely a third bailout to farmers will be issued as the trade war shows no signs of abating.
Gundlach Warns Fed “Doing What The Bond Market Says”, Insurance Cut Won’t Halt Recession
John Williams suggested a few weeks ago that the Fed wouldn’t be beholden to bond markets. As Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise noted earlier, Williams “was wrong.”
The ultimate justification for the change in tune looks to be a downgrade to the inflation profile, even though just six weeks ago the inflation shortfall was deemed to be “transitory.”
It’s hard to escape the notion that the Fed was dragged into this shift by market pricing; it seems as if bond traders are running policy now.
And that is exactly what Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive of Doubleline Capital, said to Reuters tonight:
…the Federal Reserve is doing “what the bond market says – with a lag.”
“The bond market definitely helped to encourage the ‘Fed pivot’.”
The bond king went further during a discussion on Fox Business, suggesting:
“The bond market has been saying that the Fed’s policy is too tight by a very large amount for the past several weeks, if not few months, and the Fed simply cannot ignore that.”
But, as Gundlach went on, the stock market’s belief that The Fed will hold back the recession (as opposed to the bond market’s much more worrisome outlook), is wrong…
“The three-month bill yield compared to the 10-year Treasury yield has every bit the look of a recession coming within 12 months and maybe within six months because that rate is inverted,” Gundlach said.
“Ironically, a lot of people think if the Fed eases it’ll be an insurance policy against recession. But if past patterns are prologue, if we actually start steepening out the yield curve from an inversion three months to 10 years, that’s actually highly coincidental with the coming recession.”
And tweeted a concise and ominous statement of his thoughts…
As Crise concludes, the ultimate justification for the change in tune looks to be a downgrade to the inflation profile, even though just six weeks ago the inflation shortfall was deemed to be “transitory.”
It’s hard to escape the notion that the Fed was dragged into this shift by market pricing; it seems as if bond traders are running policy now.
Goldman Sachs now capitulates: sees rate cuts in both Juoly and September
Goldman Finally Capitulates, Sees Rate Cuts In July And September
Three weeks ago, at the start of June, we mocked Goldman’s economics team for having come up with “Schrodinger’s Fed Funds”, when with Powell telegraphing an imminent easing cycle, the team of Jan Hatzius et al refused to throw in the towel and change its long-running forecast of no rate cuts in 2019 and one rate hike in 2020 even though at the same time it said that its “modal path” called for at least one rate cut by 2020. In other words, Goldman – which last December predicted 4 rate hikes in 2019 – was hoping to have its cake and eat it too.
This followed just one month after Goldman, whose predictions in recent years have been absolutely disastrous, said that “the next move is more likely to be a hike than a cut, with the next rate increase coming after the election in 2020Q4, followed by another hike in 2021.”
Goldman: “the next move is more likely to be a hike than a cut, with the next rate increase coming after the election in 2020Q4, followed by another hike in 2021.”
And so, with Powell dropping hint after hint that the hawkish Fed chair of 2018 is no more, and has been replaced with Trump’s spineless footstool, we predicted two weeks ago, on June 7, that Goldman would finally capitulate as the Fed made clear that it is only a matter of time before rate cuts begin.
We were wrong… but by only 12 days because moments ago following today’s capitulation by Powell, Goldman has similarly capitulated and in the latest humiliation for the predictive abilities of Goldman’s economics team, which is now competing with Gartman for batting -1.000, Goldman writes that it now “expects cuts in July and September, as well as an end to balance sheet runoff in July. Our base case is for moves in 25bp increments, but a 50bp cut is possible if the news flow disappoints and/or Fed officials feel compelled to get ahead of bond market pricing (which currently implies a 32bp cut in July). Conversely, the hurdle appears to be very high for the committee to forego a cut in July”
Admitting that its weekend analysis that the Fed would disappoint the market was dead wrong, Hatzius writes that “the Fed… delivered a dovish message, even relative to market expectations” as “seven of the 19 participants projected 50bp of easing this year, and the statement provided an unqualified “will act as appropriate” signal that cuts are now likely.”
Separately, with Powell “strongly suggesting” that runoff will conclude as soon as the Fed delivers a rate cut, Goldman now expects that “the end of balance sheet runoff will be moved forward by two months, with an announcement at the July meeting that halts runoff in early August.”
While it is hardly relevant, considering just how gruesomely wrong Goldman has been about, well, everything, here is Goldman’s take on “what were the most important takeaways from today’s meeting” starting with…
1. The magnitude of the declines in the dots, the starkness of the change in Chair Powell’s tone relative to the May press conference, and the unqualified “will act as appropriate” phrase in the statement. First, eight participants projected at least one cut in 2019, including seven who saw a 50bp move, and the majority of the Committee now projects a cut by 2020 (see Exhibit 1).
And while this would imply a divided committee, in the press conference Powell suggested that there was a broader consensus moving in the direction of rate cuts and did nothing to discourage the interpretation that his own dot is calling for lower rates this year.
2. Second, the tone of the June press conference was much more dovish relative to the May press conference, at which Powell refused to discuss cases in which the Fed might cut rates and did not express immediate concern about downside risks to inflation expectations. As shown in Exhibit 2, Powell offered quite a different take today on several central issues.
What is bizarre, as we noted earlier, is that despite the sharp divergence in the dot “camps”, most of the changes in the Summary of Economic Projections were similar to our expectations, with the exception of lower projected core inflation next year (-0.1pp to 1.9%) and a surprising upgrade to the GDP projection (+0.1pp to 2.0% for 2020 growth). In other words, the Fed is cutting even with the economy firing on all 8 cylinders.
3. Third, when comparing the Fed’s statement to his redline, Hatzius points out that the phrase “will act as appropriate” was not qualified by the words “as always,” as it had been in Chair Powell’s speech at the Fed conference in Chicago on June 4. This kind of language, unless qualified, usually presages policy action Hatzius writes.
* * *
Here Goldman makes an interesting observation, asking why the Fed would cut rates if its baseline outlook remains “favorable”? The answer, according to Hatzius, is that growth concerns are the primary justification, with low inflation lowering the hurdle required for Fed action.
After all, Powell kicked off the press conference by emphasizing the Committee’s “overarching goal” of sustaining the expansion. Powell also offered a list of uncertainties that could warrant accommodative policy, ranging from global growth and trade policy to relatively minor headwinds such as the grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX and the drop in oil prices (-$10 since the May meeting).
As Goldman concludes, the statement and press conference strongly suggest that at least part of the Fed leadership believe rate cuts are appropriate. As shown in Exhibit 2, the Treasury market now views even larger cuts as likely.
So now that even Goldman accepts a rate cut is coming, the next question is whether it will be a single (25bps) or double (50bps) in July. Here Goldman predicts just one cut (so bet it all on 50bps) , as “Insurance cuts” that are more preemptive in nature “tend to be 25bp”, with larger cuts saved for circumstances in which the economy already appears at risk of sliding into recession. According to Hatzius, the rationale is that providing accommodation gradually in small doses “seems more natural when the motivation is to provide insurance against ongoing uncertainty rather than to provide a large immediate boost to growth.”
The punchline? Goldman’s admission that the Fed has not only capitulated, but also abdicated its role of being ahead of the market instead of being dictated to by it. Case in point, “the results of today’s meeting suggest that many FOMC participants are increasingly influenced by the expectations embedded in bond market pricing and other outside influences.”
This means that any time the bond markets wishes to, it can force the Fed’s hand from now on… even if it results in making the biggest cheap liquidity-driven asset bubble of all time even bigger.
So with the bond market already discounting a 32bp rate cut at the July meeting, and if expectations continue to creep toward 50bp, “the FOMC might well deliver a 50bp cut for fear of disappointing the market, even if the economic data do not paint a particularly worrisome picture.”
For those who still don’t get the picture.
The apparent influence of the bond market recalls the well-known comment by political strategist James Carville: “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” Carville spoke in the 1990s when the bond market worried about upside inflation risk, but the same basic logic might apply today.
… if it is true that the Fed’s decisions have become increasingly responsive to bond market expectations, it might prove hard to stop cutting. The bond market might continue to price cuts even if downside risks merely linger, the White House is likely to continue calling for lower interest rates, and the idea that “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure” when the effective lower bound limits the ability to respond to recessions might continue to gain popularity in monetary policy discussion. This creates a risk that easing will remain the path of least resistance beyond September.
Translation: the bond vigilantes are back, only this time it is not to push rates higher, but to make sure the Fed wins the race to the bottom, even as the biggest asset bubble of all time gets even bigger, creating a “huge risk” that in just a few months the Fed will be forced to intervene and to stop the ensuing melt up or risk losing all credibility.
Michael Every: “Are You Sitting Uncomfortably? Then I’ll Begin”
Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank
Are you sitting uncomfortably? Then I’ll begin.
Once upon a time in a land far away there was a happy kingdom. The King did kingly things in the court, with the best interest of his people in mind; the land was rich and the peasants grew more food each year; the cloth-makers made finer cloth each year; the shoe-makers made finer shoes; the merchants traded the surplus with other lands, and all was well. When the economy ran too hot and wages began to go up too fast, the wise Master of Coin would raise interest rates to keep things cool; and when the economy was too cool, the wise Master of Coin would lower interest rates to warm things up; and all was well.
Then one day an evil giant stomped down from the hills, squashed the King’s brave guards in their shiny armour, and then the King, and made himself ruler instead. Everyone had to work for the giant. And he was hungry: most of the food that was grown went to feed his voracious appetite, and the peasants only had gruel no matter how hard they worked the land; all the cloth that was spun was used to make giant garments; and the shoe-makers had to make giant shoes while their own feet were bare. The merchants were now bringing goods in to feed the giant, and the kingdom was deeper and deeper in debt, which the giant made the people responsible for.
The wise Master of Coin–who was wise enough to have kept his job through fulsome praise of the new ruler–noted that production was still running hot on the surface: all had jobs and much was being produced! So he raised interest rates. This did not bother the giant one bit,…but it did not help the struggling people at all. They groaned under the strain.
So the wise Master of Coin then realised that the actual economy was running cold, not hot! He cut interest rates: down and down and down they went, even to less than zero. (Which was dark magic, some muttered.) Again, the giant wasn’t interested – he just wanted to be fed and clothed and shod. And again, the people who were forced to serve him and hand over the fruit of their clever hands, didn’t benefit at all.
The Master of Coin simply didn’t understand that what had worked so well under the King didn’t work when a giant was holding the people under his control. Of course, he was living well as the giant gave him all his leftovers and old handkerchiefs. But everyone else lived unhappily ever after.
Yes, children, the Fed has just held rates, as expected, and it has shifted towards a more dovish tone consistent with a 25bp rate cut next month, if needed, and perhaps even more before the end of the year, though they are obviously keeping their options open. (Please see herefor more details from Philp Marey.)
In short, last meeting the Fed was “patient” and now suddenly it’s not. What is the creative excuse for this U-turn? “Uncertainties”. Well, there’s a fairy tale for you! The only uncertainty out there relative to six or seven months ago is the US-China trade situation, and for now things are looking up (relative to a few days ago anyway): perhaps if the G20 goes well rates won’t be cut? What the wise Master of Coin fails to recognise, of course, is that when major structural changes in the economy occur, like a giant, monetary policy no longer works as it once did:indeed, we believe that even if the Fed does move, it still won’t be enough to prevent a downturn in 2020.
From a US rates perspective consider this: if the Fed do cut ahead then yields fall, more so at the shorter end; but if they don’t cut then yields still fall, but more so at the longer end (now around 2.02%). Either way US (and global) yields are going to fall – which tells its own sad story.
In a related fairy tale, social media is buzzing with “the end of the US Dollar!” memes after Facebook announced that it will be launching its own electronic currency, the Libra. Personally I think they missed a trick and it should have been Virgo (Virtual and Go); or Capricoin. Yet when one looks at the proposed structure–the Libra is backed by actual currency like USD and to be run by unaccountable techno-wizards–perhaps Crapricorn would be more appropriate. As someone noted yesterday, in the old days one deposited money in a regulated bank and expected interest; now we are supposed to deposit money in an unregulated website and get no interest. Yay disruption! Indeed, for a company that has been publicly accused of not looking after private data, it’s brave to claim they are ready to look after cash. Furthermore, with the political winds already blowing against Facebook anyway on other fronts for being too powerful–and money BEING power–isn’t this Libra issue likely to create even more problems for it?
In short, the shift in Fed tone–and geopolitics, as Bloomberg reports White House officials are briefing there are links between Iran and Al Qaeda, a fairy tale last used in 2003 before the Iraq war–is creating talk about a weaker USD. Yet we are not there yet, not by a long way, and especially not for EM FX.
That particular green giant is still sitting on them all, and the US will no doubt do all it can to make sure it stays like that, happily ever after or not.
1,000 Quakes In 3 Weeks In Key SoCal Seismic Zone: “We’re Watching This Activity Closely”
In a key seismic zone approximately 40 miles east of downtown Los Angeles, there have been more than 1,000 earthquakes since May 25th.
Needless to say, it would be quite alarming for the entire state of California to experience more than 1,000 significant earthquakes in just 3 weeks, but in this case we are talking about an area that is “less than a square mile” in size.
And what makes this even more concerning is that all of these earthquakes are happening in a location that is very close to the San Andreas Fault. Could it be possible that the San Andreas Fault is about to wake up in a major way? I don’t know about you, but if I was living in southern California right now I would find this sort of news to be extremely unsettling…
A flurry of more than 1,000 small earthquakes has rattled Southern California over the past three weeks.
The quakes have occurred in an area covering less than a square mile in San Bernardino and Riverside counties roughly 40 miles east of downtown Los Angeles.
The United States Geological Survey map depicting the uptick in seismic activity shows a thick collection of dots, a rather unsettling sight.
Of course it is perfectly normal for California to experience earthquakes. They happen on a daily basis, and normally they aren’t anything to be too concerned about.
But to have this many earthquakes concentrated in an extremely limited area is definitely unusual. According to USGS science advisor Ken Hudnut, this current earthquake swarm is “a little different than what we’ve seen before”…
“In detail, if you zoom in on it and look at the pattern and how it’s evolving in time, it’s a little different than what we’ve seen before,” he says. “We get these swarms, but we don’t see exact repeats. Obviously, it’s very disruptive to the people who are feeling these earthquakes. We’re watching this activity closely.”
Normally, earthquake swarms subside after a certain period of time. But so far there are no signs that this swarm is going to end. Instead, we just keep seeing quake after quake.
That doesn’t mean that a major event is imminent, but without a doubt there are good reasons to be concerned about what is happening. As geophysicist Andrea Llenos recently explained, every small earthquake increases the likelihood that there will be more seismic activity, and she stressed that we “do know a big earthquake is going to happen” someday…
But “any time you have an increase in the number of small earthquakes,” according to Andrea Llenos, a research geophysicist with the US Geological Survey, “you’re likely to increase the likelihood of a slightly larger earthquake happening.”
“I would redefine normal as: You should still be prepared for a large earthquake,” Llenos told the paper. “We do know a big earthquake is going to happen.”
Californians have been hearing that the “Big One” is going to hit the San Andreas Fault for a very long time.
We even had a major Hollywood movie starring the Rock made about such a quake, but it still hasn’t happened yet.
But one day it will. In fact, the chair of UCLA’s Civil and Environmental Engineering department insists that such a quake is “an existential threat to our economy, our ability to live here”…
“There is no fault that is more likely to break [in California] than the San Andreas Fault,” says Jonathan P. Stewart, professor and chair of UCLA’s Civil and Environmental Engineering department and an expert in earthquakes. “Small local earthquakes—the Northridge earthquake, the San Fernando earthquake—they can kill people in the dozens, they can have freeways coming down, they can affect dams, and all of that is bad,” he says.
“But it doesn’t really pose an existential threat to our economy, our ability to live here.” A large earthquake on the San Andreas Fault, on the other hand, he says, could create a devastating threat to humanity, infrastructure, and the economy, with implications that extend nationally and even globally.
As ominous as that sounds, the truth is that Stewart may actually be understating the threat that Californians are facing.
A few years ago, a team of scientists conducted a major study which found that major quakes in the distant past had caused “part of the coastline south of Long Beach to drop by one-and-a-half to three feet”…
Scientists from California State University Fullerton and the United States Geological Survey found evidence the older quakes caused part of the coastline south of Long Beach to drop by one-and-a-half to three feet.
Today that could result in the area ending up at or below sea level, said Cal State Fullerton professor Matt Kirby, who worked with the paper’s lead author, graduate student Robert Leeper.
“It’s something that would happen relatively instantaneously,” Kirby said. “Probably today if it happened, you would see seawater rushing in.”
In other words, scientists are telling us that if such a quake happened today we could see areas along the California coastline go into the ocean permanently.
I don’t know how much clearer I can make it.
We have entered a time when dramatic changes are happening to our planet, and this is something that I have been writing about for a long time. And even though much of the rest of the Ring of Fire is shaking like a leaf right now, most of those living along the California coastline have been lulled into a false sense of security because there has not been a massive quake on the west coast for many, many years.
But scientists assure us that the San Andreas Fault is loaded and ready to spring at any moment, and they have also warned us that the entire fault zone “could unzip all at once”.
Let’s hope that day is delayed for as long as possible, but if the hundreds of earthquakes that have happened in recent weeks are any indication, time could be running out a lot faster than most of us had anticipated.
More shenanigans from the FBI as they totally ignored repeated warnings that the Manafort Black Ledger might be a fake
FBI Ignored Repeated Warnings That Manafort ‘Black Ledger’ Might Be Fake
Just when you thought the Steele dossier was the only piece of “garbage” intel the FBI relied on in its efforts against the Trump campaign, The Hill‘s John Solomon reveals that Ukrainian officials thought Paul Manafort’s “black cash ledger” was likely a fake which should not be relied on.
The ledger, which was reported in 2016 and resulted in Manafort’s resignation from the Trump campaign, purported to show $12.7 million in undisclosed cash payments designated for Manafort from former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s political party between 2007 and 2012.
The FBI relied on this ledger to obtain search warrant affidavits “months after the feds were warned repeatedly that the document couldn’t be trusted and was likely a fake,” according to Solomon, who cites documents and over a dozen interviews.
For example, Ukraine’s top anticorruption prosecutor, Nazar Kholodnytsky, told me he warned the U.S. State Department’s law enforcement liaison and multiple FBI agents in late summer 2016 that Ukrainian authorities who recovered the ledger believed it likely was a fraud. –The Hill
“It was not to be considered a document of Manafort. It was not authenticated. And at that time it should not be used in any way to bring accusations against anybody,” said Kholodnytsky, who says he told FBI agents the same thing.
Manafort’s Ukranian business partner, Konstantin Kilimnik – a longtime State Department informant – told the US government that the ledger was probably a fake shortly after an August 2016 article about it appeared in the New York Times.
Kilimnik said in an August 2016 email to a senior US official that Manafort “could not have possibly taken large amounts of cash across three borders. It was always a different arrangement — payments were in wire transfers to his companies, which is not a violation,” adding “I have some questions about this black cash stuff, because those published records do not make sense. The timeframe doesn’t match anything related to payments made to Manafort. … It does not match my records. All fees Manafort got were wires, not cash.”
What’s more, Mueller’s team and the FBI had copies of Kilimnik’s warning according to the report.
Solomon points out that the FBI may have violated its own rules by knowingly submitting false or suspect evidence in a federal court proceeding. According to the FBI operating manual, “To establish probable cause, the affiant must demonstrate a basis for knowledge and belief that the facts are true.”
While neither Mueller nor the FBI cited the actual ledger, they cited media reports about it, and relied on those stories as sources.
For example, agents mentioned the ledger in an affidavit supporting a July 2017 search warrant for Manafort’s house, citing it as one of the reasons the FBI resurrected the criminal case against Manafort.
“On August 19, 2016, after public reports regarding connections between Manafort, Ukraine and Russia — including an alleged ‘black ledger’ of off-the-book payments from the Party of Regions to Manafort — Manafort left his post as chairman of the Trump Campaign,” the July 25, 2017, FBI agent’s affidavit stated.
Three months later, the FBI went further in arguing probable cause for a search warrant for Manafort’s bank records, citing a specific article about the ledger as evidence Manafort was paid to perform U.S. lobbying work for the Ukrainians.
“The April 12, 2017, Associated Press article reported that DMI [Manafort’s company] records showed at least two payments were made to DMI that correspond to payments in the ‘black ledger,’ ” an FBI agent wrote in a footnote to the affidavit. –The Hill
According to liberal law professor, Alan Dershowitz, citing news articles is almost never done. “They are supposed to cite the primary evidence and not secondary evidence,” he said, adding “It sounds to me like a fraud on the court, possibly a willful and deliberate fraud that should have consequences for both the court and the attorneys’ bar.”
What’s more, Solomon reports that both the FBI agent cited in the the AP article failed to disclose to FBI officials and DOJ prosecutor Andrew Weissman – later Mueller’s ‘legal pit bull’ – that he met with the AP reporters the day before the story was published, and that he assisted with the story.
According to FBI records of the April 11, 2017 meeting, the AP reporters “were advised that they appeared to have a good understanding of Manafort’s business dealings” in Ukraine.
So, essentially, the FBI cited a leak that the government had facilitated and then used it to support the black ledger evidence, even though it had been clearly warned about the document.
Secondly, the FBI was told the ledger claimed to show cash payments to Manafort when, in fact, agents had been told since 2014 that Manafort received money only by bank wires, mostly routed through the island of Cyprus, memos show.
During the 2014 investigation, Manafort and his partner Richard Gates voluntarily identified for FBI agents tens of millions of dollars they received from Ukrainian and Russian sources and the shell companies and banks that wired the money. “Gates stated that the amounts they received would match the amounts they invoiced for services. Gates added they were always paid late, and in tranches,” FBI memos I obtained show. –The Hill
The best evidence that the FBI knew the black ledger was a sham? They never presented it in Manafort’s trial.
On Wednesday night, Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC) told Solomon that he is asking the DOJ’s Inspector General to investigate the Manafort warrants, including media leaks and whether evidence exists that the government knew the black ledger was unreliable evidence.
Manafort was sentenced to 7.5 years in prison by two different judges on eight charges of tax and bank fraud, and admitted to ten more charges related to work in Ukraine.
‘Good Morning America’ Slams Biden For Dodging Nepotism Questions Over Ukraine, China Dealings
Joe Biden is looking more and more like damaged goods, after Good Morning America couldn’t get a straight answer out of the beleaguered former Vice President regarding accusations of rampant nepotism with his son Hunter in both Ukraine and China.
Hunter – who is now being sued by an Arkansas woman claiming he fathered her child while also plowing his late brother’s widow, and who was recently accused of returning a rental car to an Arizona Hertz location with a used crack pipe and two DC driver’s licenses – was given a sweetheart seat on the board of Ukrainian gas giant Burisma, despite having zero experience in Ukraine or the energy industry. During this time, his father Joe Biden used his position as Vice President to pressure Ukraine into firing its top prosecutor who was investigating the company.
Questionable dealings were also uncovered in China after journalist and Clinton Cash author Peter Schweizer revealed that in 2013, the father-son duo flew to China on Air Force Two. Two weeks later, Hunter’s firm inked a private equity deal for $1 billion with a subsidiary of the Chinese government’s Bank of China, which expanded to $1.5 billion, according to an article by Schweizer in the New York Post.
And while these allegations had remained largely in the realm of conservative news outlets, Good Morning America just amplified it to their diverse audience of more than 3.7 million viewers (according to Nielsen).
In fairness to Joe, having to explain how his son ended up with 1.5 billion dollars from China while he was VP would be a nearly impossible job for anyone.
The Biden’s must have taken “ethics” lessons from the Clinton’s because they clearly learned a thing or two from them. https://twitter.com/Santucci/status/1141642730990444549 …
NEW – Biden sidesteps questions about his son’s foreign business dealings but promises ethics pledge – More to come from @ABCInvestigates on @GMA –https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-sidesteps-questions-sons-foreign-business-dealings-promises/story?id=63820806 …
E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
KING REPORT JUNE 19
@ecb: In his speech at the #ECBForum, President Mario Draghi… The recent ruling of the European Court of Justice emphasised the broad discretion of the ECB in using all our tools in a necessary and proportionate way to achieve our objective…
In the coming weeks, the Governing Council will deliberate how our instruments can be adapted commensurate to the severity of the risk to price stability. In the absence of improvement, such that the sustained return of inflation to our aim is threatened, additional stimulus will be required…
@realDonaldTrump: Mario Draghi just announced more stimulus could come, which immediately dropped the Euro against the Dollar, making it unfairly easier for them to compete against the USA. They have been getting away with this for years, along with China and others.
European Markets rose on comments (unfair to U.S.) made today by Mario D!
ECB’s Draghi hits back at Trump: ‘We don’t target the exchange rate’
He iterated that the euro zone’s central bank is “ready to use all the instruments that are necessary to fulfil this mandate.” “And we don’t target the exchange rate,” he said to applause from the crowd.
Die Welt’s @Schuldensuehner: Donald Trump takes aim at #ECB President Mario Draghi over ‘unfair’ interest rates. And Trump has a point as Euro is undervalued and Draghi has spoken on his own authority and without the consensus of the ECB Governing Council.
Die Welt: Trump’s frontal attack on Draghi leaves a deep impression
With his anger at Draghi’s new promise, Trump proves once again that he has the right feel for important issues. Even before many a professional ECB observer, the US President realized very shortly after Draghi’s speech very clearly that this time it was not just a normal conference speech, but commitments, with which Draghi once again pretty much leaned out of the window…
That certainly has an impact on the euro. Measured by fundamentals, the common currency against the dollar is heavily undervalued. According to the purchasing power model of the OECD, the common currency would have to be one-fifth more expensive, that is, more than $ 1.30…
@realDonaldTrump: Had a very good telephone conversation with President Xi of China. We will be having an extended meeting next week at the G-20 in Japan. Our respective teams will begin talks prior to our meeting.
“ECB officials see Rate Cut as primary tool for any new stimulus.” @business [BBG]
German DAX way up due to stimulus remarks from Mario Draghi. Very unfair to the United States!
Globally, bonds yields declined smartly. German bonds have negative yields out to 17 years. The 10-year bund hit a record low yield of -0.327%. That’s a wealth tax of 0.327%.
We said it before and we will say it again. NIRP is DELATIONARY; it’s wealth tax. By cannibalizing capital and interest income, it forces retirees and savers to reduce spending and hoard capital – and it induces people that should NOT being taking risks to indulge in high risks.
The rally ended on this: White House Explored Legality of Demoting Fed Chairman Powell – BBG
Uncle Lar quickly surfaced to deny that the WH is looking to demote Powell. Was the BBG headline a purposeful leak to nudge Powell to cut rates?
The retreat lasted until 13:00 ET. ESUs and stocks then traded sideways into the close. Stocks and ESUs peaked at 11:00 ET. The remainder of the session was listless because organic buying remained muted.
Trump on demoting Fed Chair Jerome Powell: ‘Let’s see what he does’ [15:12 ET] https://t.co/B74eWpsGe4
There is more to Trump’s incessant acrimony for the Fed and Powell than rate cuts or hikes.
During the 2016 Campaign, Trump regularly slammed the Bernanke/Yellen Fed for QE and NZIRP. Trump stated several times that the Fed is propping up the economy for Obama. Trump believes the Fed kowtowed to Obama; so, he doesn’t buy the independent Fed BS. Furthermore, Bernanke announced QE 3 at the end of August 2012. He implemented it weeks later. This is unprecedented Fed meddling in a presidential election. The unwritten rule is that the Fed does NOTHING in the six months before an election. Bernanke, for no solid reason, interfered in the Election of 2012.
Trump: The Fed Keeping Interest Rates Artificially Low So the Economy Doesn’t Go Down [9/16]
“They’re keeping the rates artificially low so the economy doesn’t go down,” Trump said in response to a question about a potential rate hike by the Federal Reserve this month. “So that Obama can say he did a good job. That’s the only reason that the rates are so low. They’re keeping the rates artificially low so that Obama can go out and play golf after January and say that he did a good job. But it is a very, a very false economy. So [Obama] can leave office and say: See I told you.” “We have a very false economy… So far, I think she’s done a political job,” he said about Fed chair Janet Yellen…
In July 2012, Romney was leading Obama. If fact, Obama’s political brain, David Axelrod reportedly told Obama at the time that he was going to lose to Romney. Obama asked what they should do. Axelrod recommended that they go negative in a big way on Romney. Mitt took it without a beef.
Trump at his kickoff for the 2020 Campaign last night: “This was our chance to reclaim our government from a permanent political class that enriched itself at your expense. We did not merely transfer power from one party to another. We transferred power back to you, the proud citizens of the United States of America… It’s a verdict on the un-American conduct of those who tried to undermine our great democracy and undermine you… The only collusion was committed by the Democrats, the fake news media, their operatives and the people who funded the phony dossier, crooked Hillary Clinton and the DNC. It was all an illegal attempt to overturn the results of the election… They went after my family, my employees, my business, my finances…but really, they were after you…”
Apparently, Trump will again run against the Swamp. This time he has the added benefit of playing the victim of a nefarious Deep State/Swamp smear and frame scheme.
Dems are livid that Trump included a citizenship question in the US Census. The NY Post’s John Crudele notes that the US government has been asking citizenship questions each month for a long time.
Citizenship questions are nothing new for the census
Each and every month, the US Census Bureau conducts at least one survey that includes a question about citizenship. One of those surveys is the Current Population Survey (CPS), which the Census Bureau conducts monthly on behalf of the US Labor Department. The CPS is used to determine the nation’s unemployment rate, among other things.
That’s why the current heated controversy over including a citizenship question in the constitutionally mandated 2020 Decennial Census, in my opinion, is nonsense…
“In my 19 years of experience at Census, I have never had anyone refuse to answer the citizenship question,” says Stefani Butler, who worked at the bureau until she resigned in 2017. Butler was my whistleblower for several stories about Census wrongdoing…
@GeorgePapa19: America: do not forget that that current CIA director, Gina Haspel, was running the CIA desk in London in 2016while Alexander Downer (Australia) Joseph Mifsud (Italy) Stefan Halper (CIA), Azra Turk (CIA) and the US embassy were spying on me and trying to sabotage Donald Trump.
King Report for Thursday 6/20
Well that about does it for tonight
I will see you on FRIDAY night